Hello everybody, and welcome to week. 11 of that chasing had a
really exciting week. Tend to break down, we saw the
emergence of a couple rookie, running backs and Rashad white
and as I have to check, oh Justin Fields continued his
domination. Of NFL and Justin Jefferson may
be made the best catch of all time in a thrilling game between
the Vikings and the bills. Connor, how are you doing?
How was your week 10 for fantasy and pretty, pretty nondescript,
item in cash or two in, at the fs.
I had a, Some solid scores in reducted, but at nothing really
nothing, really that notable. Yep.
Have a similar similar for me. I didn't.
I took the week off from from DFS.
Actually I've been playing a ton of DFS this year.
Just been busy with other stuff and don't have time for it.
But yeah, my sadly our season long stature.
Acing team is is dead. So at least I don't have to
worry about Fab arguments anymore but yeah, yeah, no and
no stop chasing stream. Bob arguments bleeding onto
where stream know that seems dead mother season-long stuff's
going. Okay, but yeah, I'm hopeful for
best ball. Was a couple players that, you
know, I had been drafting a bunch of teams like Tony Rashad
white Pollard, they had been sort of postings years for a
while and now those guys are starting to pick up.
So I think overall my portfolio for redacted is trending up but
you never You never know until I get the playoffs is still
multiple weeks away before we know which players are really
gonna go no matter their. But yeah, right now I've got a
30% Advanced Rihanna and BBM, but like every one of those
teams has either like Bruce Hall or Lance trayvon's.
So it's yeah. It's that's a very weird
feeling. Yeah.
It's tough going through the teams.
And yeah I noticed some other thing with a lot of my scoring
teams I think And I'm fairly spread exposures but Trey.
Lance was my highest on quarterback at like, 14 percent?
I think, so that's frustrating. But yeah, we'll see, I think I
think with the amount of sort of, like, handcuff running backs
I have in my team's, I have a bunch of dawn to form in which
has been fun. Maybe I can sort of get some of
those gorb or anchor, RV teams through, Yeah, it was a fun NFL
week to watch and yeah, why don't we just start by by
breaking on the positions as we do?
Yeah, everyone here we talked a bit about this a little bit and
it sounds like you had a fun stream with pop last night
yesterday evening. Yeah.
And and I guess maybe, unfortunately issue a little bit
too much here, but we were kind of talking at least I notice
when looking at these charts at a lot of it is the same and and
maybe a fresh angle would be to combine the approach of like.
Okay, we were using and the resurrection before.
Maybe we can use this to talk through some of the atp's on
them on the playoff format. Yeah, yeah, I like that and I
think yeah, obviously the playoff format for people didn't
catch it last night. This is underdogs while there,
the first term is called the way too early wild card, but
essentially, the turn the structure of this tournament and
the future class tournaments, there, you want to release is
best ball in the NFL playoffs and you look each round of the
NFL playoffs. Is around in the best ball
tournament. So you first need to win the
Wildcard Weekend, then you need to win the divisional round.
And so on, so teams players on teams that are expected to
advance really far like the bills Chiefs, you know, Vikings
Eagles. Those players are obviously
worth more than, you know, someone on The Bangles, just
because the Bangles right now only have a 40% chance of making
the playoffs according to 538. So, it has that angle and Top of
it. But I like that as well.
And I like, that idea Connor, as we go through some of these
things, we can reference reference that ATP, which I'm
sure is updating pretty pretty sharply week-to-week there right
day today. It's from, yeah, it's Earth day
today even. Yeah, yeah, Okay, cool.
So yeah, quarterback, like I said, I think I think this chart
is the one that is the most stable, so don't A ton to call
out here. I think a few things that the
continue to stand out for me to uh continues to be the most
efficient quarterback in the NFL from another that you are per
acre. Yeah to the Chart breaker from
adjusted yards per attempt standpoint.
So that's exciting. Looking going to the ADP for the
best ball tournament on Underdog to is at ADP of 24.
So that's like a late fourth-round pick in this
format, which is pretty good when compared to other top guys.
So, I do like playing that tournament through Miami me and
Pat touched on this last night. But, you know, it can be very
concentrated with waddle and tyriq.
We actually saw them and go a little bit away from the
concentration this past week, but I think that was a bit of a
fluke. The offense is highly
concentrated to has been very efficient, it's a good ski in
there in Miami. Just the fastest wide receivers
in the league. Getting opened with heavy
concentrated targets towards them.
So I like to I like Miami. Yeah.
Any thoughts there on the Dolphins or 2000?
And honestly the Dolphins were the first team that I taught of.
And when when I start thinking about this in that, like, likely
to be undervalued and because it's hard to Envision the making
a deeper on, but they're so concentrated that if they do you
almost know where you feel very So strongly about where two
points are going to come from and but looking at your chart,
the biggest surprise to me actually is the Seahawks who now
they're not 90% chance to make the playoffs, their 79 percent
chance to make the playoffs. But there are Lee has drafted
guy is kind of Walker 44 and a half and at Gino's commit is Q
B12 in a six round draft. So, So basically rarely getting
drafted, and then we see him in the good section of the chart.
He's got some rushing yards. He also shows somewhat
concentrated with with their to Tyler Lockett and became and
that that seems like something that's going to fly under the
radar. And it's definitely risky not
without risk, but can see that kind of like being a team that
It can carry, it can carry you. You're going to score points
because you know, or you have a good feeling on who the points
are going to come from. Yeah, I like that with the
Seahawks and that division to you really have the Cardinals
and the Rams both falling off a cliff.
So it's really going to be down at the Seahawks and the 49ers
49ers are five and four right now Seahawks sitting at 6 and 4.
So there's definitely paths to them.
When in the division and getting a home playoff game as well.
And also obviously a chance, the wild card.
So I like, I like the Seahawks for that format to agree with
all your points and concentration.
Juno other thing, I'll add is as you can see in this chart here,
he adds a bit of rushing juice. He's up there and sort of the
borough Mahomes range in terms of rushing production.
So that's that's pretty solid to tack that onto Some solid
passing stats as well. Especially If you start off with
a team, likely to get a first round, bye.
Exactly. Yeah it's a cheap stack you can
throw on the end with with locket Metcalf or you know
throughout Canada Locker in there if you need a running
back. Yeah yeah.
You you make it better deal if you go in with the Chiefs and
they get the first round by that you got Seahawks and
concentrated often. Sir, yeah, jump jumping around a
little bit. This is this is less of a take
for the fantasy playoffs. But I I did want to talk about.
Kenny pick it a little bit here. You really continues to
struggle. Continues to struggle.
He's a the far left of the chart and adjusted yards per attempt.
Now again that's driven by a very high interception to
touchdown ratio which is maybe somewhat fluky but we do have a
pretty big sample on Kenny Pickett now.
So for maybe this is more of a take in Dynasty.
I'm certainly not giving up on. Kenny pick it yet but I he
hasn't really flashed much in in a limited in a sample so far.
So I'm like dude this is in Dynasty and superflex.
This is a great off-ramp spot for Kenny Pickett, where he
still put up games with points, he's showing some rushing upside
and in superflex you can likely get a pretty good return on
them. After yeah, yeah.
Yeah. If you're a contender that needs
points and you're looking for a forward-looking team, you can
maybe deal. Picot 4, I don't know.
I'm not a dinosaur expert but like an older quarterback is
going to give you more production, down the stretch,
maybe a Brady plus something else.
Something along those lines. Or if you're trying to
completely blow it up, you could.
Maybe trade pick it for for a future pick as well.
Yeah. So Pat was talking.
About ended our season that he was able to.
And after Daniel Jones is rookie season, he was able to trade him
for a book at the pics and it's just because the quarterback
position is so valuable. And so, that's kind of like what
I had in mind in, like, teams will seem even, even if they're
not the best quarterback, if they're young, you think they're
going to start for a while, they've got some rushing at you.
They do tend to have some pretty.
About you. Yep, great and yeah I'm with you
there on the picket stuff. Last thing to call out, we
talked about Justin Fields as the Arbitrage, Lamar Jackson,
that continues to look good. The rushing production for
Fields is just insane. He's now at 67 rushing yards per
game, that's second only to Lamar and it's really been
skewed towards the last You know, the back half of the Year
early in the season. They weren't having Fields Rush
much. So I think that's almost like
the floor of maybe that's too ambitious but I'm thinking of
like that's 60 to 65 numbers. Almost the floor of fields.
Rushing going forward, he's shown like 100 plus rushing
yards in back-to-back games, even up to 180 and one game.
So I'm not he's an elite fantasy quarterback now.
Yeah, who like how many guys are you playing?
Out of him and say, so you picked up Fields off waivers,
which is very possible, Right? How many guys are you still
playing had a fields and who would they be?
And I mean next week, Josh Allenwood that injury.
I'm probably playing a Justin fields.
Adam. After that, I probably start
jail and hurt over him. And I think fields and Mahomes
know this might be a bit of a hot take, and I think that's
actually thinking Sherwood. I think that's really close.
And probably slight Edge Mahomes over fields.
Well, yeah, I was tempted to, I was actually tempted when I
started that sentence to put Fields ahead of them.
But I think you still want a home slightly ahead.
And yeah, then yeah, I think. Yeah, that's, that's fair.
So yeah, I think for me, I would maybe slightly less bullish, but
I still think I would have in my top five.
I think I think I'd play Mahomes Alan hurts and Lamar assuming
that, that Andrews is back. I would play those for ahead of
fields, but even with the Allen injury, Yeah, I think I don't
know. I heard some some film
breakdowns in the game. It looked to me like just poor
decision-making more than like an injury affecting Alan last
week and he still put up 20 fantasy points.
So I guess I'm not that spooked on Allen with the injury.
I just think you know he's still at 26 points per game for the
season Fields down at 20 so he still you know I think you have
to project Alan Better. But like you said I don't think
it's crazy. Like there's an argument for
Fields what I'm probably doing if I have both of them is I'm
trading Josh Allen for an elite running back or wide receiver
and then starting Fields the rest of the way, you know,
totally depends on what you can get.
As trade compensation, how, how much you leave me?
It's are willing to pay out for quarterback, but I'd be selling
the if I have any of these top five guys, Mahomes Allen Lamar
hurts, I'd be trying. Trade them and ride fields for
the rest of the year. I actually did this in one in
one League, one quarterback League, where I dealt Lamar for
Tyler Lockett, it wasn't an amazing deal.
I wish I could have gotten more for Lamar but I was really
struggling that wide receiver. I needed to get a win that week
and I'll start lock at the rest of the way and I feel fine with
with Fields replacing Jackson. So ideally you can get like a
little bit of a better player than that.
If you're dealing one of these Elite quarterbacks but Times
that's just dependent on what your, what your league mates
are. Yeah it's not chasing, not
negotiations trading. Yeah but I do know that that's
the type of I'm trying to make trade.
If you got Fields off waivers and you have to lie,
quarterbacks now trade the guy you drafted highly and and ride
with Fields because I think that's the the way you're going
to get the most bang for your buck.
So interesting Dynasty question here of a dynasty fields or
Watson This is fields for me, and, and close at all.
My rationale would just be Age and and then also for Watson,
you knew how that I was I hate talking about like this and but
it is just like a risk of like you see, you see all these
connect, continuous like lawsuits come in.
And and it doesn't, it doesn't, it feels right now like the
door, maybe. Maybe closed but you've got that
wrist. Stop suddenly it sounds right
back open and flings right back open.
Yeah. And he I guess.
Yeah, I think that that that's what I would say about that.
Yeah, I think I would go fields to, you know, Watson's only 27,
I'm not quarterbacks can last a really long time.
I'm not super worried about the age difference.
It gets from 23 to 27. I'm more on the concern of a
legal risk, down the line for Watson.
The sometimes we will see when guys take extended periods off
from football. They just don't come back.
Like, who knows how Watson's training regimen has been since
he's been gone. You know, I haven't heard any
reports those been bad, but clearly he's got some mental
issues going on. You know, I don't want to say
too much more about that. I'm not a legal expert or
anything, but I would treat Fields as the safer.
Option and I think he also has incredible upside as well.
So I would probably I'd probably roll with Fields but I think
it's from the age point of view is that entry.
So Watson 27 now and 2020 for entry years Watson will have a
tree at the start of his age and now I know you don't it's not
real like the stock market or whatever.
But I do think that's like you're pretty predictable point
where the trade value is is lower.
Our Wares at when feels as 27. His I think from that point of
view, his value is going to hold up a lot better in the trade
market. Yeah, Watson's well.
Yeah, that's a fair point. I certainly defer to you on,
like, Dynasty trade markets. I don't have a ton of experience
there. I'm making it up.
Yeah. As we all are.
Okay, cool. Let's move along here to to
running back. So for people following Along on
video, we're now looking at running back snaps and usage
over the last five weeks from week, six week 10.
And we have all the running backs here who have greater than
40% routes or Rush attempts as a percentage of their team's
snaps. So it ranges from guys like
seokwon Berkeley who are around 70% routes or Rush attempts as a
percent of their, his team snaps all the way down.
To Jamal Williams who is at around 40 percent routes and
Rush attempts as a percent of his team snaps.
You could also see the expected points per game here below.
Whoa, the names. See, some guys like Eckler and
room. Andre really popped there in
terms of expected points as well as fantasy points.
Over expected per game. Joe Mixon is now the most
efficient running back in fantasy points over expect a
game besides Tony Pollard, due to that 150 per week six.
Yeah, that one explosion. So anyways, I think this there's
a couple things that that jump out to me here, starting with
James Conner. This is a guy we haven't talked
about for a while but he came back last week immediately in an
80 plus percent snap share. Roll the team also has released,
you know, Benjamin and I believe only gave the backup running
back in last week's game. He can't they are Gorham.
A handful of carries Ingram just had to carry or sorry.
One carry to Connors 21, just two routes.
Run to Connors 23. Connor, had 65 68 snaps.
So I think, actually, this chart is showing Connors usage over
maybe, maybe two games and it would even look better if it was
just last week's. I forget exactly when he went
out with injury but point being I think they're ready to go back
to James Conner in Full-time role, like we saw last year when
Chase Edmunds was hurt. So, Connor is a guy that maybe
there's a sneaky by window on him right now.
I'm trying to think of like who I would send for Connor like
guys like Zeke, maybe na, zhi, guys, maybe in that range, maybe
even for net. You consider with Rashad white
usage popping up. Maybe you can deal one of those
guys and get Connor because the you usage was real strong last
week and any thoughts on Connor? Yeah, the Cardinals running back
situation General. Yeah.
So tough for me would maintain would be in terms of the playoff
and playoff basketball. I don't think he's really in the
conversation and we've got our Earth 538 have cardinals. 12%.
Yeah probability of making the playoffs they've not been very
good at. This year.
I think really you're thinking about James Conner in a
situation of he's now got effort in the next couple of weeks, at
least, at least the next couple weeks.
He's got what we are perceiving to be a great and opportunity
share and so it's definitely definitely seems like to be able
to profile of if you really need help getting into the playoffs
and he's a good potential Target.
And I think with any of these guys and especially all the
running backs, you do want to be careful of like an over pay.
And I don't think any of those players that you mentioned
represent that at, but that is something I would definitely be
careful with. And it's hard to do in a vacuum.
It's difficult to present and possible, trade, cut candidates,
because you can't see. About every single League app or
format, but definitely it's definitely Target.
Where if situationally you are one of those kind of cusp and
playoff teams, and you need a bit of a push over the edge.
Definitely a good potential Target to consider but really do
want to be price-conscious. Yeah, and he did have 22 Point
PPR points or so last week so for the box score Watchers, it
might be tough. Enough to buy him but I think my
overall plan would be is if someone's like thinking oh this
is a James Conner, sell High opportunity and you can buy them
at a reasonable price. Again like hard to say exactly
what what that is aside from some of those names I threw out.
I think Connor is a good a good buy right now.
I think that the market perception of him is is lower
than it should be Stephanie. That's what about when Williams
gets off. I Our I think he's not Darryl
Williams, not back to you for my are for a couple weeks and yeah,
even then I don't know. I'm not I'm not projecting
Williams for a big role, Williams was running behind.
You know for most of the year and you know, just got caught.
So I don't think the team thinks pretty highly of Darryl
Williams. I would probably Target Kiante
Ingram as the most likely number two there, but you're not trying
to Suggest that you pay about kept price, for Connor eater.
I mean, if you do pay a belko parts for Connor, well, then you
have to be worried about daro you have to be worried about
fiance? Yeah.
And but if you are price conscious, you can probably
wetter than getting solid at workloads and him still that
scoring good points for you, from being the lead committee
back. And yeah, that that to me that's
that's why you be price conscious but he's definitely
going to be the top dog. Now, it seems Yep, I agree with
that. Okay, let's let's get to a
couple. I want to talk through the
Chiefs and the box back field. So, I think there's some
interesting stuff going on there.
So let's start with the box. We have fournette here at about
a 60% snap roll again, this is over the past five weeks and
about 15 expected points per game.
We have Rashad white on the next chart at a row.
Round a 35% Rush, route, roll and nine.
Expecting fantasy points per game.
So, you know, it's not a perfect way to do it, but add those
together 9 + 15, we're talking about 25 or so, expecting
fantasy points per game in this backfield between two guys, do
you have a lien on how would you sort of?
If you're going to reject this forward, the rest of the way it
sounds like for Nets. Injury is not going to be an
issue. So let's assume right now This
girl right now the beat and the beat reporters are talking about
and Rashad white. Being the starter going forward.
Yeah, he would I mean he was the starter in the end the game just
in and we 10 and he's obviously he's got the age in his favor
Lenny historically has been a pretty inefficient back so I
would so that's Of like 1510 in Lenny's favor, I would expect it
to be 1510 and Richard White's favor going forward.
And I think the biggest thing for this offense and these box
is that 25 expected points per game is pretty good.
So it there is enough expected points going around there for to
Fantasy viable box. And And my my biggest take on
Rashad white is that he is value is a lot higher in redraft
probably to me anyway. Then he would be in Dynasty at
and my rationale for that is is that he actually, he is an older
rookie and let me get his exact age.
I think he's 24 and then the one of the big reasons that it's so
valuable. He's 23, but he turns 24 in
January and One of the big things that this backfield is
valuable is just from the goal line carries.
Now, obviously they've been lower this year and also, when
at Targets from Tom Brady, and I think if you think about it from
a dinosaur Dynasty perspective, you've got extreme risk of are
Brady retiring pretty soon, and then I'll do that fantasy.
Richness is no longer there and so would be where It would be
pretty wary but that in Dynasty and put pre excited about white
for the the rest of the year. Yeah.
I think I'm sit like that. 1510 breakdown is is probably about
Yeah, I was in the median is something or anywhere from a
full 50/50 split to a slight Edge for Rashad Wade.
I will call out that even though Richard white officially did
start the game. In Munich, for net, did out
touch him 10:46 before fournette went down with injury so it
really was something close to 50/50 split.
Maybe even you could say a slight lean to fournette, but
with with injury without well, Richard white played After
fournette went down, I think that coming out of the body by
they're going to look to get Rashad white involved as the one
a, but I do expect. Yeah, something closer to a
55/45 60/40. I have to still give fournette
the edge on sort of carries from the, you know, one or two yard
line goal line carries. He's just a bigger back that the
team probably trust down there, but white certainly has more
more upside than for neck because I now I think The
likelihood of for not getting an 80%, roll with white healthy is
almost zero now where I could see a world where they move for
Nat to a much smaller role of with white, really performs down
the stretch. The other point I wanted to add
to the playoff contest. I think the Bucks are one of the
most exciting ways to attack the playoff contest.
Right now, they have just an 83 percent chance of making the
playoffs. So not guaranteed.
Class but I think that's keeping their prices really low.
You have Brady going at pick 50 so that's close to a last round
pick in this format second or third last round.
You have Mike Evans going in. Let's see pick 35 start 39.
So also pretty late, you have Godwin going even after that
pick 54 Rashad White. 660. So that's like last overall
pick. You can really get away with
stacking up the box with four of your last you know six picks or
so. And I just think that the NFC
this year is pretty wide open. You know, you have the Eagles
who just lost the Commander's last night.
I mean, they're still looking really good but I think their
win-loss record is a little bit fluky.
The Vikings people have also made this point but they've just
want to Taunton Of one score games.
I think their win-loss record is a little bit fluky and I could
just see the Box getting hot at the right time in the playoffs
and and making a bit of a run. Maybe it's, you know, maybe it's
my Tom Brady bias as growing up as a Pats fan.
But we saw this with the box back in.
Where do you again? Might be in England, but yeah,
definitely cries. This is likely.
Um touting the bills as a good pick.
If I tap out Tom Brady and anything.
But yeah man I don't know, I I mean we just talked about the
Seahawks out similar prices. I'm so excited to talk about
Kent Walker at with his big share of that ring, back, usage,
and price. So it and probably be a little
bit hypocritical of me, not to, at least be a little bit excited
about Rashad, why a pic 60? When I just said, I think he's
getting that 50 and expected points per game.
And Chris Godwin, I pick 55. Yeah, those seem like pretty
attractive prices and it's so it's just so hard to Envision me
at for me to Envision and the Buccaneers being the same that
makes a deep run, but it's week, ten.
We really don't know any of this stuff right now.
Yeah. And if you remember back in
2020, you know, I, I don't know their exact record this point,
but people work on Of ruling out the box at around this time then
like their record was okay but the team the offense is really
struggling Brady didn't look that great I think people forget
a little bit their 2020 run in the playoffs.
I think came from a wild-card spot or maybe a for a force you
to the division. When I wish I had this, this
remember right now but another thing in favor of the box is if
they make the I also it's almost certainly because they won the
division, which gets them one home game in the playoffs that
division is so bad. They just have to beat out the
Falcons Saints and Panthers. So I think that's like that this
81% from 538. I'd almost be willing to say
that that should be even higher. I know there's the chance they
miss and the Falcons. Go on some kind of weird run and
make the playoffs or maybe the Saints do.
But, you know, I have a really hard time seeing them losing the
division to the, to the Falcons or Saints or Panthers.
So, so when in that, they have a fifteen percent probability to
the Falcons, which kind of using a probabilistic thinking seems
reasonable. Like, I think to get to the
book, the book, and here's to 85 90, you gotta push the Falcons
clothes, like, really close to 0, and which I'm a little bit
low to do just because you do, Have to think probabilistically
about these things. Yeah, yeah.
Now that's That. That's that's fair.
I think, you know, I can see how they get to the 80% figure.
The Bucks are only five and five, a lot of weird stuff can
happen then FL but yeah, I feel good at the thing that matters I
think is like, say you compare them to the Seahawks or Giants.
Those teams have similar odds for making the playoffs but the
Seahawks only have a 35% chance of winning the division and the
Giants. Only have a 12% chance of
winning their division. So that's to say, if those teams
make the playoffs, they're going to be going on the road more.
Likely than not. Whereas if the Bucks make the
playoffs, it's almost certainly because they won their division
and that's a pretty big Advantage, you know, right.
What home-field advantage is worth, usually like 33 points on
bedding line or whatever the, you know, the common knowledge
is there. So that's a presbyter reflected
in your expected games. Yeah, total that you were
talking about last night. Yeah, I am.
Anyways, we've gone off on a tangent, a bit, any other
running backs, We should talk about the chief situation.
Actually, we mentioned that the top me and Pat talked about this
last night, but do you have a lien on?
It seems pretty clear that CH is out and it's kind of down to
McKinnon verse Pacheco. Let's say for just the regular
season. Now like if you're a team that
wants to acquire one of these guys for your regular season
fantasy leagues, do you have a lien between who you want?
The check over is McKinnon. Not really.
No, I think they're both valuable but it does seem like a
situation where but Jack I was getting the carries McKinnon's.
Getting the, he's getting the targets and I don't think I
think make Cannon will be a factor closer to go line and
especially with his passing is receiving a bill chops.
Hmm. So that's yeah.
That one feels. Very close to 50/50 commit to me
and maybe slightly in Pacheco but not not overwhelming by any
stretch. Yeah, that that seems about
right to me, I think, for the regular season on go Pacheco, he
even like the routes were pretty close between Pacheco.
Don MacKinnon last week, it was 18 McKinnon routes to 16
Pacheco. Now McKinnon turned those 18
routes into eight targets. Whereas Pacheco had zero Targets
on 16 route. So I think Mahomes like you can
kind of tell when it can't make cannons in the game.
Um, homes is looking his way with pacheco's, in the game, his
route running does not look very, very competent.
I don't think he has many different players.
Yeah, but I still think. Yeah.
Just for the, the carries the goal line usage.
I would rather have Pacheco. Now, if we're talking, if we're
talking the playoff format, and this is more just like a gut
feel take than analytics. I would actually, lean McKinnon
over Pacheco for some other dude.
Laughter. Yeah, yeah.
I think two main reasons for that one.
I think there is some possibility.
The team is just sort of protecting McKinnon for the
playoffs. We saw last year him really go
off in the playoffs and even when CH was healthy they just
completely I CH for McKinnon, he got the rushing and the
receiving workload in a couple games.
So that's one reason. Number two, they're more likely
to be in passing scripts in the playoffs and they're in the
regular season. So When they go up against the
bills, you know, if they play the Bengals, these teams are
there any to score, a lot of points.
So I'm expecting McKinnon to get heavier, snap shares in those
playoff games. Assuming they're going up
against some high powered offenses in the playoffs.
Do you agree with that? McKinnon over Pacheco for the
playoff formats? Yeah, yeah I've got and it feels
like something like we both know that.
It's not like we have solid data to back that up.
We just know that's what they did last year.
So seems like the most probable outcome was that.
They do it again. Yeah, I agree with that.
Let's see here. I think another thing people
will be talking about is the San Francisco running back
situation. We have McCaffrey moving pretty
far to the right on this chart. And that's, that's mainly
influenced by two things by his first week in San Francisco,
where he had a very limited role that week is reflecting this
data. It's also a little bit because
of last week where McCaffrey saw more of a committee with Elijah
Mitchell back. In the fold, we had a larger
Mitchell getting a decent snap share.
He had 24 snaps out of 71 so, almost a 30% snap share with
McCaffrey at 47 out of 71. So, more of like a 60%, snap
share I think and curious what you think I'm not overly
concerned about this. I think when you see the box
score, it looks kind of scary that Mitchell.
Got 18 carries but McCaffrey still had five targets.
He still had 14 carries of his own.
He was, he was getting all the routes out of the backfield.
You know, this is no longer the McCaffrey on the Panthers roll.
It's it's just more your sort of average Workhorse or semi Horse
roll on another team but on a much more efficient offense.
So yeah, I don't know. Like you're not going to worry
there, the situation is a little bit worse.
Like he's a 49er now. Yeah, so he's gonna have the
49er kind of like profile and probably where there's so many
good players on our team, which is why they're so efficient or
partly. Why?
And that it's not it's probably you're not going to get every
game beat in the calf. The show now and or at least
that's what seems likely, but you're still going to get some
very strong games. And but it's also, I think it's
also a situation where It's really hard to be at too
confident, either way what's going to happen.
Like to, I'm placing a fair bit of of weight on the fact that
they really, really liked and Elijah Mitchell last year and
when he's back healthy, they're giving him like a fair share of
the workload. And I think it's kind of, like,
pretty likely that they To give them that.
But at the same time it did the whenever you talk about the
49ers, it's really hard to call it one way or the other.
Yep. Yep.
I feel similarly. I think I expect a similar, snap
share breakdown. I do think that the fact
Mitchell got 18 carries on 24 snaps is a little, a little bit
fluky, you know, due to the to the positive game, strip a
little bit there. But yeah, I'm I guess like, you
have to say last week was a -2. McCaffrey the fact that Mitchell
took sort of that, you know, 33% snap roll and took a decent bit
of carries but almost every Any back in the league sees, right?
Like some running back on their team.
Take a third of the snaps. So yeah, my God after McCaffrey
101 and someone tells you oh well, another running back is
getting 30. Tryi 25%.
In the schnapps at your camera. Got a little weird but away and
I won't good. Ah, yeah, you dropped them
one-on-one on. Someone's house you that then
you're disappointed. So it is like like you said it
is a - but still at very sorry to ballplayer.
Yeah, still I think I would still be.
Yeah I would probably still have McCaffrey and my top three or so
you know maybe someone like Eckler and Berkeley I would
wreck I would probably rather have but I think McCaffrey is
still up there for me for the receiving usage.
And yeah, where does one, you know, one.
On week, off of his 40-point, Fantasy game on the 49ers.
So I'm still taking them over just in Jefferson in PPR.
No, I don't think it would take them over Jefferson.
I don't think I would take them over Diggs or Tyreke either.
I don't think I'll take any running backs over those three
to be honest. That's fair, for sure.
Yeah. And that's what we year.
Yeah. Okay, cool.
Speaking of water. Severs, let's I think let's keep
things moving. I don't think there's there's
too many interesting, I guess like just a couple quick notes.
Jeff Wilson again. Dominated snaps last week.
I think it's sort of a 60/40 split with most shirt.
So he's a guy. If you can catch your league
made Sleeping, try to try to, you know, send some type of
package deal. You get Jeff Wilson thrown in.
I think he's a really strong by now and also for the Fantasy
Playoff. Formats agree.
But besides that let's move on to water Seaver.
Yeah. Well next our do you want to
talk about this? Now let's just let's keep going
wide receiver. I'll send these trucks.
So the I do think just for people falling along, I did do
the expected fantasy points chart.
It's running back. Just filtering for the last five
weeks. I think they're interesting, but
we've already spent a lot of time and money back, so I'll
send these out on Twitter for anyone who wants to look at
these. It shows things like Eckler,
with an insane, 19 expected fantasy points per game from
week, six, two weeks, 10. That's ridiculous.
You know, Ramon Dre in a legendary work workload.
Type role. There's some cool stuff here on
this chart to check out but I think we got it.
And so long talking about at running backs, Pete is logging
back in the Stream yard Dakota. Our access because out the
stream and start chasing will be done by new host next week.
Yeah, yeah. We've been fired for talking
about Elijah Mitchell for 20 minutes.
It's a real shame, okay, wide, receiver by Pete's decree, we
are looking at here, water super opportunity verse fantasy
points, four wide receivers that have run more than 85% of their
team's routes on the here, we have fantasy points per game on
the y, axis on the x axis, waited targets, per route run.
So, these are number of targets, you get her number of routes run
but adjusted for your average depth of Target.
So short screen is worth less than a 40 yard bomb down field.
So in this chart here again, this this chart is another one
that Brent been pretty stable. We now have 10 weeks of data, we
did get it. Motion for staff dicks.
I think that's pretty notable, actually.
Yeah, can you talk through what your food, your friend to their
digs and so their eggs? And for a lot of this was on the
second sharp and he's, he was below before he was below 85%
there. A rat's run.
And now he's above are, which is, I mean, he's such a strong
pick, we're just talking about him being one of the first, I
don't know, like three or four picks and so it's hard for him
to go higher. Her butt and that just, it just
adds to the floor. Make gives them an even higher
for time before that he's running even more, right?
And even higher percentage of Rights, then he was at the start
of the Year. Yep.
Yeah. I don't have a good reason for
why he was at less than 85% and now wise crept up.
I maybe he was dealing with some minor conditioning or he'll
thing earlier in the year and they've just ramp them up,
either way. Good to see him in that.
Category now and yeah this chart I think it's pretty clear.
If you look at the top right of this chart who the elite
contingent of water receivers are you know, then you can
throat. Chase Jefferson cop who's now an
IR Hopkins digs Adams and maybe lamb and AJ Brown, may be
slightly below those guys but this chart pretty clearly shows
the, you know, the players who are getting a massive
opportunity Tea. And and the one, the two that
are maybe missing from here, that you would consider in that
would be Tyreke and waddle. They're just on the next chart
because they have less than 85% of their team's routes.
But this chart does a really good job of highlighting sort of
the elite elite roles in the NFL and yeah, so I think one thing I
want to talk about here Connor was the Cooper cop situation.
He is going to go on IR for four weeks.
I wouldn't be surprised if he's out even longer or if Shut him
down for the full year just based on where the Rams are in
the standings right now. They could be ruled out from the
playoff hunt at that point. So the guys running behind him
are Allen Robinson, van Jefferson and Bennett Scout
Raonic in a league where say you're desperate for a flex or
wide receiver starter. And these guys are available on
the waiver wire. Do you have any lien on how the
wide receiver room for the Rams is Going to going to shake out
and I think it's just going to be terrible to be honest.
Like I hate saying it but these are all just below NFL average
players. Like even hapy is not and not,
and I reached below average receiver the NFL level, and so
that suggests. And then you have the struggles
in the running game and and they the easy answer for me or the
quick answer is I just think it's going to be none of them
and the offense going to suck and boy, that's a little bit of
a cop-out and Probably, I guess if I would have to pick somebody
it probably is Alan Robinson and just because he goes have some
pedigree. Yeah and skowronek is kind of
like the dictionary definition of a jog.
But that I don't know if I can do a lot better than that at
maybe maybe. Yeah, even van Jefferson coming
off the injury. Like I'm struggling to see how
he performs. Well, now that the offense, I
guess if the offense craters and how does that give him enough
kind of room to operate or Run? Deep, if you happens just isn't
on the field. As much anymore.
Yeah, I think it's kind of a disaster and you also have
Stafford her, you know, Wilfred played last week.
I think I'm kind of with you that it's more, stay away than
like some massive contingent upside for one of these guys, I
agree. If I was to pick, I'm going
Robinson overs coronavirus. I think you can rule it down to
those two. Just based on routes and
Skrillex, you know, Robinson. We've made fun of his cardio
specialist ability out their butts.
Chronic Sun even worse as you see on the next chart.
At around, 30% way, to targets for Route, Ron one of the worst
of the 75 to 80% route players. So he's he's earning even less
targets than Robinson. I think some of the designed
short area stuff that kept that cop gets a ton of will go to
Robinson. I think they're more likely to
design plays for him. So, you know, if you're telling
like maybe if you're telling me like Allen Robinson, verse
thielen rest of A year I would rather have Robinson because of
this cup injury. I think I'd rather have him than
a guy like Mooney or dpj. So I think that's that's sort of
the range I'm talking about like a high-end wide receiver for
low-end wide receiver three. I think it's kind of how I'm
viewing Robinson but it's not a guy with with a ton of upside.
I don't think it's just you know someone who can get you Six
catches for 62 yards and maybe a touchdown.
I think at this point in his career he's not getting you a
ton more than that and a weekly basis.
So if you don't mind, if I go back to our kind of like
playoff, yeah, that's Pol team. And one of the teams that you in
538, they have a pretty high expected game number for the
Cowboys. 95% to make the playoffs, 2.2 expected games and
the hi. Highest is the Chiefs 2.7.
So it's the 538 are telling us that the Cowboys are a team and
that we should be interested in for this tournament and assuming
assuming we buy that we can we can maybe talk about if we buy
it or not. Am I see that CD?
Lime is definitely not a discount ATP of 14 but Michael
Gallup is pick 47. Which is pretty that's pretty
late for the wide receiver to on a team with that without it.
Hi a playoff equity. And but we see on this chart
that despite and despite getting a pretty solid and way to
targets per outrun, his points have been terrible.
However, you looking at at Monkey gallop Yeah, he's a guy
that I think is interesting and I would, I've been in some home
legs was available on waivers. I'm trying to get him this week.
I think with these guys coming off, ACL tears.
We generally see them ramp up throughout the course of the
year. And like you said his Target
opportunity is pretty strong. It's in the range of guys like
Pittman Devante Smith Debo TJ some guys that have you know had
some strong performances. So I'm interested in Gallup.
You're right. The inefficiency has been on a
darkened basis has been awful so far, but I'm willing to bet that
it's sort of regresses to his career, his career averages, and
he becomes a useful sort of flex piece down the stretch.
And yeah, like you said, in the playoff formats I think he's an
interesting guy to add late for your Dallas tax.
Yeah, I guess other thing is like, obj is a bit of a wild
card there, right? I think.
Oh. Jake could Corp sort of Steel.
Gallops roll. Potentially, there's been a lot
of rumors there. So that's maybe the risk on
investing a ton in Gallup. Is that someone like obj comes
in? But, you know, I'd still put
that at less than 50 percent chance of happening.
Maybe around 50, if I was just a wing wing, a probability, their
scent and with the playoff question and him and him being
such a strong value, relative to the other Cowboys.
Why and how would you make him part of like a Dallas like super
stock? Because like that's an easier
way to draft for Cowboys. Or would you prefer to maybe do
a not a skinny but like to to kind of wise flares and out of
Cheaper value. How would you play that?
Yeah, that's a good question. I think, I think in this is a
cop-out. I think both are are viable.
I think I'm more likely though to take Gallop on teams where I
have the Cowboys, making a Deep Run, so maybe more like, Cowboys
Super Stacks. What I'm saying?
I'm taking back, I'm taking Paul or time taking lamb.
And I'm betting that the Cowboys are going to make it to the
Super Bowl. In that scenario, I probably
want some fourth piece there, whereas like, if I'm just taking
two players from from a team, oftentimes, you're okay with
those two players just having one or two big weeks and then
losing in the conference Championship for something.
And you know, if I'm only getting Cowboys players from one
or two weeks, I think it's less likely that, you know, Gallop
gets there in a massive Spike week and when's you week, I
think he's more likely to be a guy that matters in that format
because he just gets It's successive like nine to Fifteen
Point weeks that help you advance and help you in the
final week. But yeah that's just sort of off
the top of my head. You have any thoughts there?
And to be honest? No it was just a question I had.
Yeah. And I was curious what you
thought about it. I think I tend to agree and that
he eats that clean attractive for peace and And yeah, I agree
with that. We have you put that next dance.
Good point from Stephanie here. I was thinking about this, James
Washington will be back soon for Dallas.
I still think Gallup is the water Seaver.
The team invested very heavily in this offseason.
He got a pretty big contract. He's been running ahead of Noah
Brown. Now, if you look at last week's
snaps, so I expect Washington to compete with brown for the wide
receiver role. I don't really expect him to be
taking Snaps from Gallup. Especially coming off a pretty
major injury himself, but that's a good note.
James Washington is someone we should should keep on our radar.
See how he affects the snaps when he Comes back.
Let's move on here to to the next wide.
Receiver chart, I didn't have a ton to say here besides Darius
Layton is is the wide receiver one on the Giants.
I think that's pretty clear. Now and he had a pretty big
spiked week last week as far as translator severs go.
So, he's a guy, I'm adding in more casual leaks.
We're still on the wire aside from that kind of kind of same
old here for these water severs. Yeah.
Any thoughts, any thoughts? Any of these guys?
And nothing is really and jumping out to me and just going
to check for T. So T Hagins maybe it's
interesting. And yeah in and the playoff
format give going to ATP 49 and That's one of those things where
like the Bangles are like one of those lower probability teams.
Yeah, but if they do make it we've seen them.
We saw to make a run last year and we've seen how important to
Higgins can be for the team and but I would count that as kind
of like a more of a minor at Point.
Yeah. I don't have any kind of like
strong take takes or takeaways from this chart that we haven't
talked about before here. That's that's fair.
I think a guy who's not on this chart but we should talk about
is taddarius Tony for the Chiefs.
So I think he wasn't actually going to be due for a major role
last week and then Juju went down and that pushed him into a
much higher. Snap-roll me called Hardman was
down to and Michael Arden was down to, so, that's a good
point. I think, you know, I think this
requires like really monitoring the Chiefs injuries to both Juju
and Hardman neither of their injuries sound like something
that is going to keep them out for too long.
So it's interesting. If you look at the snaps last
week, 40 there was a total of 40 routes for the Chiefs mvs, led
the team with 34 routes, then Watson at 29, and then Tony and
JuJu down at 17 and 16 Sky more all the way down at 10, you
know, I I think that Watson and mvs are less talented than Juju
Tony and Hardman but I don't know if you can play Hardman
Juju and Tony on the field together.
I think none of them are really like proven as outside wide
receivers in the NFL. So I want to say that Watson and
MDS could be pushed to the side and you can get, you know, Tony
juju and Hardman out there but I don't think The Chiefs will do
that. I think you'll steal still see a
lot of Watson and mvs. Oh yeah.
I like I want to be more excited about Tony and I think in
playoff formats I am. But for this regular season
stuff, I still expect him to have like more of, you know, a
50%, even with the Jews you out for half the game and Hardman
out last week. He didn't even run 50% of the
team's route. So I don't know.
I think I would still probably project him for the regular
season that like a 50 to 60% routes.
Roll and maybe in the playoffs that that spikes even more.
But yeah. I don't want to be the the cold
towel or whatever. The expression is on Tony guy
but weapon like that. Yeah, wet blanket called out.
Yeah. Any thoughts on Tony like how do
you see his snaps evolving throughout the year if you're at
a sort of guess there and That's a hard one I think.
And if I used to make the case for it going higher it would be
that when he what they use them a lot when he was on the field
and and he performed with with it and so that would be maybe
the case of where he might say, okay?
And these other players, they that they've struggled a bit and
then Tony he's played better with Snaps.
I he has so that could maybe be the case for him to be closer to
a full-time player and but yet Tony is a hard one for me to
read that. He's a heart.
It's one of those good things where he's he always seems to
have these question marks of like availability and stuff like
faking the hamstring to get off the team. and with the Giants,
which is kind of what he told us, what a celebration and Dada
that sort of stuff is kind of like it's a bit of a red flag
for me and he's, he had issues in college with availability.
And yeah, that, that that's where I always struggle with
Tony. But the problem is that he's so
so good that if, if I'm wrong and and and the, the enthusiasts
are correct. It.
And he does have this good year then he could smash so so hard
Yeah, it seems like situation where like the median projection
doesn't look great for Tony just cuz of concerns on playing time
and maybe some off-the-field health stuff.
But he has clearly the most upside I think of any sheeps
wide receiver, I think I would only take Juju above him for
rest of season and fantasy. I definitely like him over MDS
Hardman. You know, whoever else and yeah
maybe even I think he has more pure upside than Juju but JuJu's
As you know, 52 95% outcomes or maybe still better than Tony's
is how I would maybe look at it. So I think that's very fair.
Yeah. Okay, let's uh, finish up on on
tight ends here, starting with the starting tight ends, if you
want to call them that we're looking here at tight end,
utilization and efficiency. So tie downs, with greater than
60% of routes are on from weeks, six through ten.
We also have targets for Route, Ron and a DOT shown in this
chart. So you can look at to see if
tight ends are using down the getting used down the field, you
know, like Kyle pits 8, Of 14.4 that's really high for a tight
end Greg dulcich 13.7. That's really high for a tight
end versus guys that are being used and more sort of short
dump-off roles like Dallas ghadir, you know, 5.1 a taught
hidden hers 5.48 odd. So, some differences there, I'll
call out a couple things that I noticed, right away.
Number one, I think Foster Moreau is a tight end, one as
long as Darren wohlers out, he's made Be not the most exciting
guy from an athletic standpoint but he has the full time role
there. That's pretty clear and he's got
a decent targets for outrun, you know, okay middling a lot.
Not someone, I'm super excited about but I think he's
definitely, you know, on the low end tight end one bubble.
As long as Mahler is out. Yeah.
Any thoughts on some of the other guys?
On this chart yan'er. So the first thing that struck
me here was the train McBride popping and aren't top seven, or
so, a rat run. And I will say that's a that's
held up quite a lot and by the last game and week 10, when
what's his name Zack? Eric's got injured.
And so, yes are actually They just to be clear this.
I did a manual change just to only show McBride from last week
just to smoke a. A oh yeah, yeah.
So because that is what's that's kind of like the closest that we
can get to what we should project forward.
Yeah. Yeah.
And so that makes sense and and I think that's also relevant
when we look at the targets per Rev Run and that were only
looking at what is it? 36 routes.
And sample size. Yeah, 4%.
He got one Target on those that are maybe that the target
prayer. Run is so the target proton is
actually for the full year so that that is actually an
accurate targets for Route, run for him.
For this whole year. It's just been really, really
bad for McBride, but still still a low amount of routes.
I can, you know, as you continue talking to me product and pull
that up. Okay so that yeah he does have
four percent car sir out run over the whole the whole season.
And that is based on 5058 route, CS3 Targets on 58 routes this
season. Again, so I fought with then
maybe. Yeah, I'm not sure where that
number is this 4 but it's low, whatever it is.
Yeah, so I've got four Targets on at 90 routes and so that's,
that's where we're getting our four percent.
Okay, got it, got it. Okay, and so that's obviously
pretty / and I think that's for for someone like me.
I was really excited, about McBride going into the season,
he had this great receiving a profile in college and it was it
was excited to see what he could do to kind of challenge.
Zach ertz as a as that receiver from the tight end spot.
And for me, that's obviously a big kind of like, reason for
caution. Oh okay, maybe.
The results here. Maybe he's not as good.
A receiver in the NFL as I taught he would be.
And so maybe that's a reason for some caution and but I'm still a
little bit optimistic that he was so good as a receiver in
college and we're still only talking about 90 routes that
maybe maybe with Zach ertz down that they're the kind of roots.
I, he's running and and the role his overall role, Maybe.
That's more conducive to fantasy points and Donna that it was
before. So but definitely that's that
makes me more cautious for sure. Yeah, yeah.
So I think I'm similar I'm willing to like give them a
little bit of pass on the torch for outrun.
Just based on the fact that his his role looks to be really
strong, he's going to be running all the routes, you know, sort
of in the same range as guys like Hawkinson pits.
They'll search in terms of just of Route rates, it's a team that
we do expect to be decently past heavy if marriage to come back
and now or it's is out for the year.
So you know, the target / outrun stuff is not good but you know,
that's tough. Can I think the be a bit noisy
in such a small sample size right you know we would we were
ripping on coal combat all year as someone who had a really low
targets for outrun but it was running all the routes And all
of a sudden, the drips off to massive Spike weeks.
So, you know, you really just want to Target the guys that are
running all the routes and sort of, you know, cross your
fingers, McBride's made me not Flash the most Talent thus far
in the NFL, but I think he's Still Still Still viable as it
like a fringe. You know tied, N1 low-end tied
into Another thing that that I noticed he was trained in the
kitty. I think shows up here because
Everett got hurt last week. I don't have the latest on
Everett's injury, but it looks like last week cleanup a snap
counts. Now the kitty ran 31 routes on
144 drawbacks for the Chargers. So that's a pretty high route
rate. Every it was down in just seven.
So we must have gotten injured. Eh, we got a got a groin injury
and he's now considered day-to-day.
Okay, got it. Okay, so that's just something,
you know, very deep tight and premium leagues.
Kitty is may be worth a stash. I think you can start and if
you're desperate he looks to be the pretty clear back up to
Everett. I think Purim is on IR or also.
Injured. So yeah that's just maybe a name
a stash to throw out there for those leagues.
Yeah, besides, that didn't have a ton to call out here.
Again, Kyle pits, peripherals continue to be off the charts
and you can cash in your slansky box on those in your points per
targets for route on leagues. He's absolutely smashing, not
the most actionable point. And, but one thing you are, I
often hear about George kittel, is that he blocks too?
And you can see here even in the last five weeks.
So I've been pretty favorable to him.
He has actually blocked a lot but he plays like almost every
snack so like even though he's blocking like a pretty high
percentage of the time, he's also running a lot of routes or
a very high percentage of routes and over the last five weeks
he's actually ran the highest percentage of routes and out of
anyone and so maybe This is more of a DFS Point than anything
else in that. When and when the 49ers go into
- grants game scripts and have to throw a lot.
He is I mean I don't know him who needs a reminder of this
that in those scenarios George kiddo can put up a lot of
points. Yep, till they view, their I
think kid'll is a good DFS play. I think people are probably
sleeping on him in terms of ownership just with how many
sort of, you know, dud games. He's had in a row or just games
re hasn't made a big splash. So that's that's a good note
there. Let's finish off here with
everybody's favorite chart the backup tight ends poof.
I do I You know, I did a ton of film this week on these guys
didn't have a lot to share. I'd, I will say chigga cock.
Whoa, I think I said this is a few weeks in a row so people are
probably familiar but he just rips off like big plays every
game. So I don't know why they can't
get him on the field. More that passing offense is
really struggling. I think, you know, I'm not I'm
still not adding him probably because it's that's just too.
Deep, I don't, you know, to deal with and add in your main event.
Fpg guys, League's most likely but he is a guy I'm watching
that if you were ever to jump out to like 50% routes or
something like that, if you see that start to go up, i-i'm
excited about him. But yeah, other than that I'm
not sure there's any injury situations, anything like that
to discuss for these back up tight ends.
You got anything Connor and not really know and I'm wondering
why. Yeah, taller higbee is on the
second page. Here, you get hurt this week
too. Let me look into that.
Yeah, he I think he did get injured.
He only ran 24 routes on on 40 drawbacks this week.
I think he got banged up but I'm not seeing much news on it.
You heard it here folks here folks would be is Rose getting
caught by the Rams for no apparent reason.
Yeah, nobody else is talking about this.
Nobody else is talking about this.
He did have a neck injury and week 8, that's all I can find
but yeah man his he started the year and an extremely high roll.
I think also we can see in this chart here Connor is let his
past like he's still on the field for 75% of snaps but he's
pass blocking a lot because I think largely due to the Rams
offensive line just sucking. So I think that's part of the
story as well that he's just coming into block but yeah.
He must have either been injured last week or was just passed
blocking a shit ton because his routes.
So this is like a true number actually week 8 is impacting it
so that push them down to 42 percent and what we can 65%,
I've roads run week, nine, sixty one percent week seven and fifty
nine percent. So and in that time, let's see
past blocks we had a yeah yeah, 24 different path.
You had a lot of possible rocks and please up in the in those in
the past five weeks, he's averaging about a 20% and block
rate. So he's past blocking 20% of the
time and he's Running a route that's called at 80% of the time
are sixty percent of the time. So that is like, that's a
material change, right? That he.
And I think that's, that's a great call that on the past
block stuff that we were considering him like an ant and
every or close to 80% route guy before.
And that's a, that's pretty much where he was.
Yeah. Where's eat?
That's no longer the Tyler higbee.
A the Tyler higbee profile now he's he's running way less Red
Sun before. So yeah, that's obviously quite
a big concern if you wear are expecting fantasy points from
Tyler higbee. Yep, that is, that's a good
point. He'd be like, I think for a
while I would have thought of in the same Tears, like the Hayden,
Hurst Evan engram, mikasuki, Dawson, knocks types, he's
clearly no longer in that. At tier, I think he's definitely
caught a bubble in your regular 12 team, you know, leagues and
your tight end premium you can probably even do better than
higbee. Like, for example, trade
McBride, just based on the routes info.
I would definitely take treatment, broad over Tyler,
higbee just I think the lot more upside in that offense, just do
the routes. So that's a good note.
Somebody listening to stop chasing Until the End.
Yep, that's that. Might have been the most
optional. We set up show that anywhere.
Speaking of actionability, I was just going to break down the
Giants. Tied end situation.
Lawrence cager actually came out of nowhere and led the Giants
and snaps for anybody desperate enough to start Tanner Hudson.
We may or may not have done that in our statute async team which
is extremely down. Bad Lawrence cager, just
completely iced Tanner Hudson. They both ran the same amount of
routes. Actually they each just ran
eight of 23 but cager had 45 snaps to Hudson's 11 so if
you're gonna if Bellinger's still out and you're extremely
down bad you probably got to start cager over 10 or Hudson
but that's probably only applies to our statue acing team, which
is just the deadest of dead at this point.
So hopefully, hopefully, you can see better than Lauren's Gauger.
Let's see, I don't think I can foresee any other takes out.
On the back up tight ends unless you got something Connor.
Oh, let me, let me get my list here of buckle up, tight and
takes Harrison, Brian. We have to tell you about Russia
and legally required to talk about Harrison Brian on every
show. So what's going on?
What's going on with their to Brian?
He he caught the touchdown, so he scored some points and put
and Goku is coming back soon, right?
And Joker should be back soon. Brian's role was better this
week and we can then week nine, he was at 32 of 42 routes, he
only saw three targets but that's a much stronger route
rate than we saw the week before.
I don't know if that was like a game plan specific thing or
what, but if in-joke who is out I think you can fire A up Bryant
with like a little bit more confidence in desperation spots.
But right, he misses the next game and he started about with
the Harrison brine start chasing money back guarantee.
Yeah. Oh, yeah.
Any money you lose in Harrison? Brian, you've been mopey.
Just put Harrison Bryant in the description.
That's that's again, that's a guarantee.
All right, let's cut this. Off a couple couple sort of
logistics things. We're hopefully going to be
trying to continue to do playoff, best ball streams going
forward. Those I think will mostly try to
do Monday, but things will move around there a bit, a bit TBD on
that scheduling. But, yeah, as we get close to
the to, the real NFL playoffs, I know that format gets really
popular, so we're going to continue to do some content
around. And that and if you didn't get
to see it yesterday, check out my stream with Pat which is
hopefully pretty Evergreen for macro strategy on playoff best
ball. And we also put together a
couple teams there live, so that's definitely worth a watch.
Yeah, Connor any, any last last notes, or plugs before we head
out here and no, and nothing really from me and thanks for
joining us. Everyone and really enjoying the
Every week and thanks. Thanks for going on the journey
with us. Yeah.
Thanks. Appreciate everyone who joined
live in the chat. That was a lot of fun.
We will see you next week in week 12.
Good luck. And week 11, everybody.