Week 8 is behind us. We are officially over halfway
through the NFL season for teams without a bye I guess, and Rashi
Rice is leading the wide receiver position in points per
game. This is stat chasing Pat fryer
Helmo. This is what?
This is what I'm hot. Anita hand job.
Fix your sight Jamar and alpha play Chase Tony.
You can't handle the heat. It looks like we're finally
pissed, boys, You're right. OK, we're not actually halfway
through. I just I just kind of Dave, it's
matic to that one. I I was just a lie, but we're
through week 8. We're through week 8, which is.
That's almost halfway. Yeah, almost halfway.
Definitely not. Like by any definition too.
Early on this Sunday, we'll be halfway.
There you go. Thank you.
Thank you for having my back there.
So I, you know, I, I screwed up in a very bad way.
I had the wrong background for your cold open.
I don't know how you're ever going to forgive me.
To be honest, I did not even notice the background did not
register for. Me.
No, I don't think. I don't think I might be the
only person in the on the planet who cares that the that the
background is correct. Yeah, if you notice that the
background was not correct, let us hear about it in the
comments. You know, we, we take that kind
of feedback very seriously. We're a professional show.
We, we make the big bucks. We we, we should get that sort
of thing right. Well, I, I think we've got a lot
to go through in the in the charts today.
So let's go ahead and dive into them, see if we can keep this
show under 2 hours. We've been doing pretty good
recently. Feel like we've.
Been on a good run. Delivering all the information
that we think is actionable and we've been doing it concisely.
Yeah. I mean, this is the first year
we've done at show notes and what do you know we're we're
efficient with we're more efficient with the show.
Like who? Who would have talked tonk it?
I mean, in past years we had notes, but they were a lot
looser than the structure that we've been going.
With yeah, true, true, true. These are a lot more, a lot more
focused. So again, you, you've got the
notes this week. You want to you want to dance on
Kayla Williams. He's not dead yet, but.
Well, well prior to me dancing on Kayla Williams grave.
Let's pull the charts up so the the good people can see.
Oh oh. I I I've shared screen but I
haven't added to the stage there we.
Go OK, so the the point I wanted to make on Kayla Williams, I
have a couple couple things to share here.
So first I was pulling up how he's been trending on this chart
over the past weeks. In week 6, he was at an adjusted
yards per attempt of right about 8:00.
Then in week 7 he's down to 7.5. Now here in week 8, he's almost
down to 7 adjusted yards per attempt.
So it's been a steady and precipitous fall off That's
that's kind of a lot of ground to cover when you consider that
this is an average of the season.
So he's been very bad and and very bad lately.
He was running really, really hot on deep touchdowns earlier
in the season. So that was really doing a lot
of work for adjusted yards per attempt.
But it turns out when you stop Sun running deep touchdowns to
Roma Dunze, your whole numbers start to look a lot worse.
And I did some digging into this because watching the Bears, it
really seems like the success that he does have is within
those first 15 or so scripted plays, right?
Like you get the scripted plays and he, he looks fine, more or
less. And then after that where it's
like, all right, this isn't something that we've drilled at
practice all week. Like I don't, you know, I don't
have reps going through. OK.
I, I start hearing my progression, then I get to hear.
And then if there's nothing here, then I throw it away.
Or if there's nothing here, I take this checked out or, or
what have you. But when you get out of those
first 15 scripted plays, I managed to pull up this stat.
So for quarterbacks, excluding their first 15 plays of each
half all the way back through 2011, there is no quarterback
with a lower EPA than Caleb Williams, that's lower than Zach
Wilson, that's lower than you know, you, you take your pick of
your least favorite quarterback, but there is no quarterback
lower in EPA than Kayla Williams outside of the 1st 15 plays of
each half. What do you think about that?
That sounds pretty bad. You you photos about the NFL
because I totally made it up. No, I just Davis Maddock, that
one. It it just sounded OK.
You had me. I was like, oh shit, I met this
guy last week. He's like, so I'm looking I'm
I'm looking at his adjusted George for attempts and by the
games. And so he had it.
He obviously he played lights out against the the Cowboys.
He who? Who do they play in in Week 6?
Let me see here. Was it?
Was it the Saints? Week 6 because he then he yeah,
it was the commanders. Oh yeah, Saints was 7,
Commanders was 6. And yeah, the Seven 7 was his
worst game, was his worst game so far this year.
Week week 4 was actually pretty bad as well, but yeah, 7 was a
little worse. In in terms of adjusted yards
for tent? Yeah, yeah.
That was the, and I, I, I had the excuse of like, oh, it was,
it was, it was the worst wetter game on the week.
It was even worse than the, the, the, the Browns one, or it was
expected to be worse than the Browns.
Dolphins 1 and then yeah, he had the pretty piss per game against
the Ravens as well like what's what's kind of interesting is
even in these bad games he's putting up like decent amount of
passing yardage and on like a lot of it's kind of like decent
drop back numbers. So it's kind of like what you
said last week where he's like, not, he's not a catastrophic
quarterback to have for your past catchers.
And then how many what? How many?
How many fantasy points did he score?
In this last week, looks like a little under How many rushing
yards did he have? Looks like 1213.
Let me pull up his rushing numbers though.
Yeah, it looks like 14 ish. Like between 13 and 14.
Just quick mental math I'm. I'm I'm just going to, I'm just
going to pull it up. So then, so I'm right now this
is not all week, so I need to change it to just week 8.
So he had 12.8. So you, you, you were correct.
I mean, unlike a terrible week, 12.8 is like, you're certainly
not dead on 12.8. Yeah, he's just.
He's not someone I. Feel like, I feel like he's
worse for real football than he is for fantasy.
Like he's like Justin Fields is a better fantasy quarterback and
probably marginally worse reality quarterback, but he's
probably in that kind of archetype where he's he's pretty
bad for for reality, but like he's OK for fantasy because even
in the Doo Doo weeks like it, it's like it's like an OK floor.
Yeah, I think he's, I mean, the whole point of this chart is
that it does kind of help cluster guys around.
I mean, obviously you have to do some kind of like adjusting for
the rushing yards. Maybe we can figure out a way to
like vectorize that next next season and get that in the chart
so we can can place them somewhere where it's like
they're they're all closer for their actual fantasy
performance. But I mean, where he sits on the
chart is like kind of where I think he, you know, his
neighbors are, are pretty appropriate comparisons for
fantasy. Like.
He's he's about a Michael Pennix or ACJ Stroud or like a, you
know, bone, like a worse bone X, which like that that doesn't get
me excited. You know, like, wait,
significantly worse than Mac Jones.
I guess significantly worse is unfair.
Worse, right, right. Well, I mean, he's also he's
not, he's not like he's similar efficiency to Doc Prescott,
similar efficiency on the on the season to Baker Mayfield and
like he's right next to Pennex on the chart.
But then his rushing bubble and I, I know we talked about this
last week that his, his, what you call it, a lot of his
rushing came early in the season.
Yeah, he did I. Did I agree with you that he's a
he's he's a he's a per he's he, he's like probably he's probably
one of the worst, like actual like locked in starter reality
quarterbacks, but like he's still like still a solid
fantasy. I I I, I don't think you're not
thrilled if you have them like we have.
We have Kayla Williams on our red main event.
That's that's kind of sliding. And I I would I certainly
wouldn't fight toot and nail to keep Kayla Williams when we have
Drake may we might actually, that might be 1 where we where
we cut Kayla Williams because like we need help elsewhere.
But like in terms of best ball, like I think he's OK in the
right matchup. We we like, we were still like
happy to play Kel Williams against the Cowboys because the
Cowboys are do do so in those matchups like.
Yeah, in the in the literal best matchup in the league, yes, I I
will play him. Well, it doesn't.
I guess even the top five, even the top 10 best matchups like
he, he's good enough in terms of fantasy football that he puts up
points. Yeah, He.
I'm not gonna be, yeah, I'm going to be like, I'm going to
be hard pressed to find times where like I want to start Caleb
Williams over a a good quarterback.
You know, if I'm, if I'm like just totally dead, like I I
drafted a guy who's injured now, like if I took Brock Purdy or
something, then yeah, I would, I would stream Caleb Williams in a
pinch, but he wasn't really going in a place where you were
like picking him up to use as a streamer.
You're like drafting him as your, your starting quarterback
and in Bestball, like the, the price for him in bestball just
looks really, really bad because the opportunity cost was pretty
significant. That's where like all of the
good quarterbacks went and and also a lot of the skill position
players that went around there were some of the stronger picks
in the draft. So I don't know you're you're
gonna have a hard time selling me on anything that's that's
putting him in a positive light like he's a.
He's a replacement level, that is clear to me.
He's a replacement level player, you know.
In yes, in reality and but I I still think that his style of
play means that even at replacement level and you get
you get some pretty good fantasy weeks.
I mean, he's basically at replacement level in fantasy
too. Like if we look at where he is
on this chart, which is measuring how good a a player is
for fantasy, he's bang on the median.
Like bang on median drop backs, bang on median efficiency
trending downward. You know, he's not a major
outlier in the way of rushing production either.
So for me, it's just like Caleb Williams is to the quarterback
position. What, like, yeah, in actual
fantasy points where you get the one huge game that's booing him,
where he had, you know, significant fantasy production
all come from one game? Yes, He's quarterback 13.
Yeah. But a lot like that, that's kind
of how fantasy works as well, where like a significant like
unless you're like literally like Jonathan Taylor, a lot of
the production comes from single weeks.
Yeah, I mean, I I would say in points per game, I'll be pretty
surprised to see him be, you know, much higher than like QB
16 through the end of the season.
OK. I just it, it's, I, I think
it's, it's heading in the opposite direction of of where
you'd want it to go if you were were hoping.
Right, No, no, I, I, I, I get what like I, I have a hard,
honestly, I have a hard time with kind of like trend line
stuff when it comes to fantasy football, 'cause like often time
there's, there's not trends, but with two or three data points,
the, the appearance of 1 can emerge.
I, I think what you're saying is, hey, he's had the best game
he's ever. He he'll have this year against
the Cowboys, which it like there's not going to be many
quarterbacks to have a game as good.
So that seems fair. And but the, the I, I where I
disagree is that he won't have any more good games this year.
Like I, I, I think his play, his style of play means that he, he
is likely to have games where he's a, where he's in like the
8910 and adjusted yards per attempt and, and the, and the
drop backs are good enough And, and you do get some rushing
there. Like I, I, I, I think, I, I, I
guess, I, I think he probably go settle around quarterback 15 and
the 13, but maybe, maybe we should move on.
OK, the next I didn't have a ton of quarterback notes.
I felt like it was mostly a status quo week, but we do have
to kind of give this one Justin Fields not actually benched,
only benched in theory before the game actually happened.
Then then he gets to start. So the chat was right all along.
There's zero chance Justin Fields gets benched.
Rumors of him being benched and then being unceremoniously
unbenched do not matter because Justin Fields never was benched
in. In all seriousness though, do
you think that his performance in The Jets first win of the
season is enough to save his job?
For next week, who did The Jets play this week?
They're they're on by. OK, Jets week was that week 10
schedule. They get the Browns next.
They get the Browns. So do I think that Justin Fields
performance against the Bengals, which he had and adjusted yards
per 10th from 8.3 and will be enough to save his job when
Miles Garrett like wears him around his neck like a necklace
And and then after that he gets the Patriots, then he gets the
Ravens. He, he, he.
He's on tin ice. Right.
Yeah, it's a it's a rough stretch for him after the pie.
And I, I definitely, on a human level, not that anybody cares.
I definitely felt for him when he was like, Oh yeah, I was
crying in my cupboard like nobody believed in me.
And I was like, oh, that, that that's rough.
That is rough. Especially he seems like a
really good person. And so it it that that part
makes me, me feel like like crap for like that.
They're kind of like gloating that he's bad.
And but I, I, I, I think what it's, it's like the chat was
right in one thing in that when The Jets were faced with the
reality of actually having to start to Rod Taylor, they, they,
they blinked when they, when that face, ugly, ugly face was
looking at them back in the mirror, they blinked.
And, and that that's probably the best thing helping Phil's
right now. But he's, he's, he's on tin ice.
The team is purely managed and his his weaknesses are very
pronounced. They they seem to be pronouncing
the emphasizing the weaknesses. Even though he's a great fantasy
quarterback, it's you, you, you, you still, you still feel
nervousness for for fields every every week.
Like when when you when you have him and you know he's starting,
you play him, but it's like a one week at a time type of time.
Yeah, I mean, I I think if you don't have the tie rod or tie
rod injury, he probably ends up playing this last week.
But I I do think that it's really easy from where The Jets
are sitting to be prisoners of the moment when you're O and
seven, right? Where it's like, God, we just
need any anything that we can do, anything that's different
than what we were doing is probably better.
Like you just change for change's sake, you know, and so
I I agree with you. He he's going to get the chance
coming out of the buy. The Browns match up should be
rough. I mean, we just saw Miles
Garrett sack Drake may five times in a game.
I don't know if you saw that, but.
I did see that. It was literally all over TV.
Yeah, and it was 5 sacks and they still lose.
Well, after. They asked like, how does it
feel to sack him five times? And he was like, I just want to
win, please. I don't care about the socks.
I want to win. Well, they so they took him out
in the fourth quarter and they weren't letting Garrett play.
And he was like throwing a hissy fit on the sideline.
He was pissed. He he, I, I, but I don't want to
like say, oh, I don't believe him that he wants to win like he
wants to win. He definitely was just wanting
to set a sack record in that game.
Like the the way that he was throwing a fit on the sideline
was like, what the fuck, guys? Like this is in my career.
I might get one more chance to set the single game sack record,
you know, and this is probably my best chance.
You know, I'm already at 5. Drake May loves to take him.
Like Drake May will just stand back there and get sacked.
And you're just saying I just need I think the single game
sack record is is 8. Is that right?
I can't. I'll look it up real quick.
Single game sack record. It's 7/7, so yeah, he he would
have needed eight to pass it. But yeah, man, like, he he
wasn't wrong to be upset. Like with the contract that he
signed with the Browns and where the Browns are at from a roster
construction standpoint, like winning, quote UN quote, caring
about winning. That's just not going to be a
thing for Miles Garrett for his career unless he gets traded,
right? And I I still think you want to
win the game. Yeah, yeah.
Somebody. Somebody of of Mouse Guard's
Taliban's mental makeup. Being a competitor, you want to
win. For sure.
I that's not sorry, I, I probably phrased it wrong.
It's but he also knows he is not winning a super.
His career will end without him winning a Super Bowl unless he
gets traded. That's that's like the cold hard
truth. And that's why he, you know,
held out for so much money. He's like, yeah, I I think I'd
kind of like, you know, to have some accolades for my career.
And so he he's a smart enough guy to know like this is his
this is how he gets his act like when he is retired and looking
back on his career, like sure would be nice to be staring at
the single game sack record. You know, that's, that's all I'm
I'm. Yeah.
No, no, that makes sense. So it it was fun or funny to me
to see him be so upset and the Browns coach, I mean, I get why
the coaches held him out too, because it's like this does
nothing for you could go get 20 sacks, buddy.
We're not It's not going to help us win this game.
But OK. I think that's enough that
Justin Fields talk turn into a Miles Garrett tangent.
The other quarterback notes I had really, I think a lot of it
was status quo. You don't need to hear us talk
about how good Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes or Drake May
are. But the again, for the millionth
time, but the quick like touches I had, I'll just shout them out
and if you have anything to add to them, you know, please do.
But Tua had a a decent bounce back game against a really good
Falcons defense. I actually I'll I'll come back
to that one. I just want to rapid fire
through these Kirk Cousins look terrible in that same game, you
know, carrying some water for Michael Pennix, maybe, you know,
actually being being better than he seems or at least better than
Kirk Cousins. And then Spencer Rattler finally
benched. He will this will be his last
week on the chart before we have Tyler Shuck in there.
But I want to go back to the two of thing.
So many of the Falcons stats like defensive stats that, you
know, they were in the top, you know, couple places in the
league. We're really predicated on
things like pressure, like time to pressure and pressure, win
rate and things like that. And I was looking back at who
they played and they played a lot of the culprits for the
longest time to throw in the league like Josh Allen and Jaden
Daniels. And I'm trying to remember who
else they they played but who are.
You talking about? The Falcons defense Falcons
defense looked like a juggernaut coming into this game right?
One of the best in the league. Their the biggest like thing
that stuck out to me was how good their pressure stats were,
specifically their their time to pressure.
And then when you look back at who they have played and how
they won those games, they beat the Bills because they got to
Josh Allen so fast and they shut Josh Allen down.
And Josh Allen, like many of these mobile like elite
quarterbacks like Drake May, Lamar Jackson, Jade Daniels,
like these guys that extend the play and can either do something
with their legs or, you know, burn you deep.
Those guys, the, the Falcons had played a lot of them and seemed
like they, they at the very least had, if not, you know, the
recipe for how to beat those guys, at least like an inkling
of how to give them trouble. And I, I think that is kind of
what was showing up in the Falcons stats.
And the Dolphins were like the perfect storm for the Falcons.
I mean, other than the fact that they're missing a bunch of their
most important players on offense.
So you know that that certainly doesn't do any favors to the
defense. So the offense can't sustain
drives and you're just having to be out there all the time.
So what I'm saying here actually lines up a lot with what you're
saying where the the commanders or pass rush is actually not
that good. It's like the 15th in the league
and per PFF, both PFF and the ESPN password.
The the Commanders or the Falcons?
The Falcons, sorry, I I did say the Falcons.
Why do I why do I have the Falcons in my head?
Sorry I I interrupted to make a point.
And then my point is like, so there are 14 in the league and
in, in, in, in, in, in their pass rush.
Yeah, they're the time. The pressure is really the thing
for the Falcons that I think kind of made the perfect storm
here for Tua, being so quick to throw, just basically
unaffected. The thing that the Falcons did
the best on defense all of a sudden is nullified by the fact
that Tua's like, oh, yeah, no, I'm not interested at all in
being tackled. So the ball is just going to be
out and, you know, best of luck, gentlemen.
And I, I do think that that really was a big, big reason why
the Dolphins were able to have so much success against a
Falcons defense that has otherwise been really, really
strong. Just a a really bad match up
thing for them along with the injuries.
Right, right, right, right, right.
His time. The trail in this game was 2.2 A
dot A 4.4. And so yeah, they they and and
and then like I said, the yeah, the Falcons, they have the 14th
best pass rush, which like you're saying, they they, they,
they, they faced a lot of quarterbacks to hold the ball
and they're they're cover. Their coverage grade is like
18th. So like, not, not as as terrible
as as I kind of would have thought.
But like you said, Chu and not not a good matchup for a defense
that's predicated on on on on the pass rush getting pressure
against like a three second like time to throw guy.
Did you have anything else to add on the, you know, Cousins
and and the Falcons or Rattler benching or should we just move
on to running backs now? No, probably not.
No, I did. I did see there was kind of
notes that the some of the film watchers were saying that the
Falcons just have this like very predictable offense that like
you kind of like, you know, you know what they're going to do
and there's no mystery about it. And the Dolphins are just able
to key on them in on that. Like I, I, I'm, I'm not a film
grinder, so I don't know the truth in that, but I, I, it, it
does make me wonder if the coaching staff is, is a big part
of the problem for the the Falcons offense.
A, a thing that I noticed watching the game 'cause I was,
I was watching this game 'cause I had a bunch of bijon in DFS
and it was not going well. And I was, I was wanting to, to
see if, you know, there was anything I could do, you know,
from my couch to help that turn around and spoiler I couldn't.
But the thing that I noticed was it really looked like Kirk
Cousins was not on the same page with some of his receivers where
he's expecting the route to be run to a different spot on the
field. And so he's throwing at a ball
with timing and the receivers are ending up in a totally
different spot. And he's they they actually like
highlighted, you know, one of those plays and then they cut to
him on the sideline. He's like talking with a a coach
and just like looks pretty frustrated about it where I
don't know if it's that, you know, he and Tenix want the
receivers to do, you know, different things on the same
routes or what have you. But it just looked like a guy
who didn't have the chemistry with the pass catchers from from
playing all season. So I think there's a lot of
there is a lot wrong there. But I think the Falcons will
definitely be hoping for Pendeks to be back soon.
Makes sense. That's move on to running back.
By the way, shout out to Christie and the chat giving us
giving us good information here where Dolphin stacked the box.
And then Kirk cousin Sam, they, they, they dared Kirk cousin to
beat them. And sounds, sounds like they,
yeah, he, he he didn't, he didn't have the chemistry with
his receivers to get that done. So for running backs here, I
there wasn't as far as like big usage changes or you know,
things like that. I guess there is one small usage
related thing that I'll, I'll get to in a little bit, but I
think we'll just start from the top as far as guys who currently
have the best roles and work our way down from there.
CMC had like a really disappointing game.
If you just looked at the box score, it's probably pretty
confusing. You're like, why they why is he
not involved? He only had like 8 carries.
What's going on? The 49ers didn't have the ball
in this game. I had the misfortune of watching
this entire game from start to finish and let me tell you how
the first half went for the 49ers.
Believe the first drive was a three and out, then the next
drive was 4 plays, then a punt, next drive 3 and out.
Then their final drive of the half, final possession, they
get, they get the ball deep in in Texans territory and it's a
35 yard drive for a touchdown. That's it.
That's the half. They ran 14 plays in the first
half. And you know, three of them
ended in punts like basically immediately.
So CMC just never had a chance to get going.
I this is like a zero panic kind of situation for me.
I mean, if anything, it's like it's more signal to me that
Christian McCaffrey is just like as as Christian McCaffrey goes,
the 49ers go, at least in this current iteration where they
don't really have any pass catchers.
I mean, George Kittle's starting to to be back, but until they
get back, either Iuke or JA, Juan Jennings gets more healthy
or they get Pierce all back. Like they just go as Christian
McCaffrey goes. So not really a a spot for
concern For me. It was just the Texans totally
dominated them on really it was more the offensive side of the
ball. Texans just held the ball for
the entire game. Basically.
The 49ers barely had any time of possession.
And so again, kind of like what we said with with the Falcons,
like if your offense or if your defense can't help out your
offense, like what are you gonna do?
Dijon had the the major bust week.
I think it kind of in the same vein as McCaffrey.
No real concern for me here. It was just a a product of the
game environment and his team not being able to move the ball
or or stop the Dolphins on on defense.
This this one I think is actually pretty important.
We get the Saquon Barkley hamstring injury to the third
quarter. He comes up he's grimace.
He grimace is pretty bad. Like looked looked like he
definitely knew that he, you know, hurt something doesn't
come back in the game after that Tank Bigsby gets in the game and
then looks pretty good ends up going over 100 yards.
He also he had a carry earlier in the game too, where he looked
pretty good. So I Draco, I think I regret to
inform myself Tank Bixby might find a way to get there, man.
Right and and and the Eagles, they have the great offensive
line. I I guess they haven't had the
best year, but they. It's it's improved lately though
with they, they had some health issues to start the season and
their line is definitely getting healthier and has improved the
last couple weeks. I think it was a major factor
and Saquon having that, you know, the big game this week
before leaving due to the injury.
I, I do, I, I guess I do want to sorry to go back on McCaffrey.
I am a little bit surprised that on 33 routes he only had five
targets that that those seem very surprising.
But maybe that's a big case of them just chasing the game, not
being able to use a check down. But then it's like, well,
shouldn't you, shouldn't you be using McCaffrey down the field?
And since you're one of your best players anyway, sorry to to
digress, just something that I noticed.
And, and tank. Yeah, I guess the, the, the book
on Tank is that he's like, he's a good rusher, but he literally
can't do anything else. And and if you're in a pinch and
you and you want and you want to run the ball and that's all you
want to do like tank Bixby actually seems like a solid
option. Like you, you, you probably
don't want to build like your your game plan around just
happened to use tank Bixby. But this does seem like a
perfect storm for him to like look good where like the eagles
offensive line is playing well, like they the the the eagles are
are are are up. So they're running the ball and
you, you and you, you hand it off to tank Bigsby and and have
him do tank based Bigsby tanks. Yeah, coming up, not the
greatest matchups in the world for Bigsby.
They get, well, they're they're going into the bye now and then
they get the Packers coming out of the bye.
So not sure if Bigsby, if, if Barclay is gonna, you know, be
right out of the by or not. I mean, it wouldn't surprise me
for the Eagles to to be careful with him.
He's pretty important for them. But we'll we'll see.
We've got got a couple weeks to let that situation play out.
But like, if you have a if you have room on a on a team and
you're just churning guys, Bigsby is for sure a a solid
waiver add where you could probably get him.
He he will be more under the radar on waivers this week than
he should be because of his buy. And also because you get some
more, you know, clear and obvious waiver ads like you get,
you have the Tracy one that I think will over shadow the
Bigsby 1. So anyway.
I guess the the concern I I would have.
I'm not sure how much other people will share this but I I
would be concerned not because he is so 1 dimensional that
unless you're in a kind of clear solve the game away game scripts
the other guys are are going to get involved.
Yeah, I I would expect Triply to mix in some, but I I think let
me, I'll pull up the the snaps here.
Yeah, I don't think, I don't think there were many Shipley
opportunities in this game even after the Barkley injury,
though. Yeah, so Shipley just three
snaps to Bigsby's 12, and this is on rushing plays.
Yeah, I guess so. This is a game where the Eagles
are up, what, 21 to 10 a half? Yeah, the the game was it was
totally insulted away mode. So there's no, there's no
receiving snaps or rather right, no, no and.
Like there's no, there's no trap of them passing either, right?
And in that scenario, you, you, you would definitely expect
simply to, to, to get the actually opposite of what I
meant to say tank, basically to get the, the, the, yeah, the
work. Because it's like you're not
even going to threaten the past. But if there's any it like and
and and and scenarios or game scripts where you do want to be
able to threaten the past. I I I do think he gets a lot
more involved than this. Like, like I said, I think this
was a perfect storm for thanks, Bixby.
I don't think it's like he's he's the like the one AI mean.
He might be like the 1A, but it it to me.
I I would love for this to be pretty tight between him and
Shipley and and and and some chance that Shipley's ahead at
least in snap count in like a more normal game scripts.
I. I think it's pretty unlikely
Shipley's ahead. They've been leaning into,
they've been leaning into Bigsby pretty heavily over Shipley
lately. I'll, I'll pull it up just to,
to validate. But yeah, Bigsby and then let me
look at Shipley's snaps for a game.
Yeah, Shipley is, is he's getting backfield snaps, but not
many. And they're pretty much, I mean,
the rest of his snaps are all coming.
Special teams he's getting in the last three weeks, he got 3
snaps, 8 snaps and eight snaps. And then compared to Bigsby,
Bigsby gets four and then 16. So yeah, I, I mean, The funny
thing is they stopped using Bigsby on special teams.
They when they traded for Bigsby, they were using him on
special teams. Then he has the, the really bad
fumble. They stopped using Bigsby on
special teams. And Shipley is playing a lot of
special teams. So it's interesting.
I, I do think that they probably end up Bigsby is, ends up being
the 1A, But I, I also agree with you that Shipley is the favorite
to get the passing game stuff. My, my hope would be that none
of this ends up mattering. And by the time they're through
the by, Barclay is healthy and and we don't have to worry about
this because boy, would it feel bad to get buried by Tank Bigsby
in this particular run out, Right, Right.
And I mean just to like in Week 7, just to just to so the thing
get lost in in Week 7. Before the injury, obviously
Shipley had eight snaps, Bigsby had four offensively.
So like, I guess what I'm saying is I think I think there's a
decent chance. It's not like maybe Shipley
isn't a favorite, but it's not out of the question, certainly
that he's a, he's a snap leader, yeah, with a, say, kind of an
injury. OK.
We've got a couple, couple injuries here to go through on
running backs that I think open up some interesting
opportunities. The next one is Pacheco, Who
sustains a knee injury. ACL is intact but I believe
they're calling him week to week and it's like.
An MCL sprain. Yeah.
It's hard to know if it's like a grade one or grade 2, but yeah,
certainly risk that and that he misses time.
Yeah, I mean he, he hasn't been particularly great either.
And they do, you know, they do have the quick turn around from
the Monday game. So I wouldn't surprise me to see
him miss the Bills next week. And the Bills have been a pretty
good match up for running backs. Now the problem is the running
back that would get more of the, you know, traditional running
back stuff less of like the passing game is Kareem Hunt.
And I don't really think it matters how bad the bills are
against the run. You know, Kareem Hunt might be
able to get their, you know, death by 1003 yard carries, but
I don't think he is the one that is positioned to punish the
bills being weak against big chunk plays.
So and I I just don't know if the Chiefs turn enough over to
Burchard Smith, even with the injury.
I mean, my, my heart of hearts wants them to but, and I mean,
I, I don't really know what all you can do.
Like if you're listening to stat chasing in week 8, like you
probably already have Brashard Smith on teams where it makes
sense to have, you know. So I don't even know what, what
this segment is for other than like a little bit of opium that,
that this is the catalyst that we need for the Brashard Smith
break, right? I had to mention it.
Right. I mean, it's kind of crazy where
if you look over, if you look over the lot, so since week 6,
so 678, they have like similar snap counts.
And I I know you're getting the garbage time at Russian times
for Broussard Smith in this, He's actually had more carries
in the last three weeks. He's had a similar matter
routes. My, my, you know, my, my, what
my brain says is that because it's a short turn around,
they'll go with the trusty vet that it's like, hey, we just
need we just need a game before Pacheco comes back.
Kareem Hunt like we're going to we're going to work you today.
And my, my heart says, but they really like Richard Smith.
They've been getting him involved more and he's efficient
and, and, and, and, and what if, what if what I want to happen is
the thing that happens? My, my, my brain.
My brain does say though that and they're more likely to just
lean on Korean hunt. Or, you know, you know what the
most likely thing is they're just going to run through the
air with Rashi Rice because right, they they sure seem to
like doing that yesterday. But we'll we'll talk about Rashi
Rice a little more at the end of the show that.
Might be good. Yeah, you might be.
OK. One last injury to mention that
I think it's worth monitoring and then there's a couple more
running backs to get through Quinch on Judkins ends up with
an AC joint sprain. I believe they said he's
day-to-day. So it's it's worth watching.
I think Dylan Sampson is the one that benefits the most from this
because you know Ford Ford has never really gotten squeezed out
by either of these guys. It's really been Sampson is the
one that has gotten squeezed out.
But Sampson just looks a lot better than Jerome Ford.
So you I think he benefits the most.
If Judkins were to miss time, man.
Right. I think he misses time though,
I'm told. Like it's like a mild sprain.
OK. That AC joints isn't really that
important for running backs because like they obviously they
don't have to put their hand over their head much.
So I, I, I, I, I, I think there's a pretty, it's, it's
pretty likely that actress Prince is playing.
OK, Well, that's, that's a good note there.
OK. The last two notes on running
back that I had, I believe it was 4 weeks ago now that you
proclared your you declared Chase Brown dead on the air.
We had yeah, yeah, the whole thing.
But is he back to life now? So it doesn't, it doesn't feel
good to say that. And then Chase Brown has his
best, his probably his best month, I think.
I think when I said that, that was what the what's his name?
Jason Brownlee or Browning? Yeah.
Jake Browning and and and they the offence was just like
totally abysmal, non functional and in that environment, he he
was dead, which I think with Joe Flacco and and and the receiving
that they have, the offence probably goes a lot closer to
league average. Again, price you paid 2 tree
turn and and and you're splitting.
You're splitting a lot of work with P Ryan, like you're you're
not getting out of here with like a positive at chase Brown
advance rate. It's it's it's going to be less
than it's going to be less than 16% for for for sure, But it's
it's a it's, it's a lot. It's a lot better than it was
where you have like a close to league average offense.
You do get some explosives, explosive plays from Chase
Brown. All of a sudden you have some
touchdown equity back. Although do they steal that?
He he was losing. Didn't you say he was a losing
goal line work? Not not just losing, it's lost,
buddy. It's over.
Like when they're in the Green Zone, it's Semaj P Ryan's time
to shine. Like when they're on the goal
line, P Ryan is the one that's in there.
And so, you know, to to defend your initial Chase Brown is dead
take. I mean, yeah, you get Joe Flacco
in there and he makes the offense look a lot better.
But Semaj P Ryan is is the best back in this backfield.
Unfortunately. Like I like Chase Brown.
He's really fun, but he's just not right.
Official. Yeah, he's cool.
He's very cool. I'd love I'd love to hang out
with Chase Brown, you know, but Samaj JP Ryan's more efficient
right now. They're giving him the high
value touches. So you're you're getting like
low value touch Chase Brown on the diet Bengals and that's just
not I I think this is like an awesome sell high spot on Chase
Brown. My other concern would be we've
seen this before out of Joe Flacco.
We saw it when he was with the Browns.
We saw it when he was with the Colts.
He comes in and he is good for a spurt.
But like there's only so much juice left in the Joe Flacco
fruit. You know, like you can't really,
you're not going to get a full season of really good play out
of Joe Flacco at this point in his career.
And so I I'm just wondering like, are we just waiting for
the other shoe to drop for the Bengals where it's like they get
this, you know, little jump start, these signs of life, but
then it starts to go back the other way.
And the often, I mean, prior to Joe Flacco getting traded, he
was basically right dead even with Jake Browning, as far as
you know, EPA per game, like the they both were bad.
You know, it's not like Joe Flacco was lighting the world on
fire with the Browns before he gets traded.
So my concern is just that we're getting the good part now and
the bad part may still be to come, right.
And so I think this is a really good time to in in home leagues,
like there's always the guy who who thinks that he's just the
smartest guy in the league and he's out there trying to buy all
your players low. Like this is the the prime time
for someone to like still be shopping for Chase Brown, like
trying to pick him up. Like maybe maybe they don't
think or they don't realize that Chase Brown's good now because
he hasn't he hasn't even put up huge fantasy scores yet.
But I know, you know, I know better that Chase Brown is
actually going to be good. Again.
It's like this is this is where you offload Chase Brown.
If you have a a buyer, you know, go ahead and sell them if you
can get, you know, $0.90 on the dollar, not what if you can get
$0.90 on the dollar what you paid.
Obviously that's a smash, but like $0.90 on the dollar of the
current value of Chase Brown. I'm probably happy to do it
unless I'm just so thin at running back that I like need
the the warm body. But for me, he's more of like
warm body at running back that I'm happy to play.
Like for example, if you have a Scataboo team where Scataboo was
one of your starters prior to the terrible injury that he
suffered and, and now Chase Brown would be your next man up.
And then after that it's all guys worse than Chase Brown.
Then yeah, don't, don't trade Chase Brown away unless you're
getting a running back back or something.
But it seems like a sell window to me for Chase Brown.
I think the sentiment, like the the market sentiment on him is
probably higher than it should be currently.
Right, right, right, right, right.
Makes sense. Makes sense for sure.
Final running back. Note this one's important.
I I'm a little conflicted on this one.
Woody Marks post a decent stat line.
He's definitely better than Nick Chubb, but that's like, you
know, the bar is low there. That's like, I can't even can't
even come up with an analogy that's that's appropriate for
what being better than Nick Chubb is like.
But Woody Marks looks like he's probably the fantasy back you'd
prefer to have in the backfield and the stat line.
Just if you're only looking at the box score, you're like, oh,
yeah, 4 for 50 receiving, like gets me.
I think he was like 17 fantasy points or something.
Like looks solid. I regret to inform you it's not
the case again, I I watched this entire Texans 49ers game.
So he has four receptions. Of the four receptions, if you
remove his long reception, what do you think his net yardage was
for the three receptions that were not his long?
I think it's like -3 or. Something -1 negative 1.
So he has three receptions for no yards.
They're all, you know, tackles for loss or like at the line of
scrimmage basically. And then his only play that
generates the majority of his yardage for the day is just a
totally broken play. There's not a defender within a
single, you know, not a defender within 10 yards of him when he
gets the dump off from Stroud and he just runs straight.
And I got to hand it to him. He covered a lot of ground
quickly in space. But like, if you look at the
running backs on this chart right here, like, I'm just
gonna, I'm starting at the top and I'm trying to find a running
back who wouldn't have gained 50 yards on that play.
Yeah. No, no, all of them, all of Emir
gained 50 yards because like you and I probably gained 20, you
know, like that. That's how far away like they're
they're there weren't signs of intelligent life anywhere near
Woody marks on that play. So like credit to him for for
actually getting the yards that were there.
But like that was not a that was not a let's credit 50 yards to
Woody Marks kind of play. That was like a right place,
right time. Daria Gumbawali gets the 50
yards if he happens to be on the field for that one.
So I think the the pro Woody Marks thing is, he's the running
back you'd prefer to have in the Texans backfield.
The negative for Woody Marks is there's like 38 other running
backs you'd prefer to have over. So it's still, it's not great,
but I guess he's, you know, I just didn't want the box score
to to lie to anybody. But yeah, that's.
Right. I hear what you're saying where
I remember we did the same thing with the Gus bus run.
Like I don't think it was was it last year or the year before
where he had an incredible game, but like he literally got the
ball with nobody inside of him and it's a good correction to
make. So I think I think he's on the
right side of A1A1B split. Yeah, for sure.
If you look at his next Gen. stats he does have positive no
only 22 yards over expected on 57 attempts.
So he's that's probably better classified as he's a, he's right
out of expectation for his rush yard.
So what a bad online that's probably, that's probably pretty
solid. I, I think he's probably like a
fine player, fine NFL player. We like, we came in into the
year with the with the expectation that he was a really
bad prospect. A lot of his prospect profile
stuff, college stats production was bad.
He seems like a kind of like just a replacement level player,
which you know, that that's still like we, we, we, we've
made, we've made a lot of money on replacement level players
that you, that you get for half, half nothing and then and you
get some, you get some numbers out of them.
Yeah, I think that's a good way to frame it.
It's he's the perfect kind of player to be really cost
sensitive on. So like for for best ball next
year, you're gonna get a shake up in the Texans backfield.
There's not gonna be Nick Chubb anymore.
Joe Mixon's probably gone, you know, if he's not retired by the
end of this year. And so the Texans are gonna do
something at running back. What I would say is if it's,
he's. Getting Michael Carter, that's
what you're saying? Yes, thank you.
Yeah, he he's like the the definition of a churn back where
it's like this guy is gonna be crowned the de facto, you know,
the incumbent. And and he might steam up if he
doesn't steam up what you're saying of like, hey, we made a
lot of money on replacement level players.
If he's a a super late pick because they draft some other
loser, like he could totally retain a job as a replacement
level player and be a great value.
But if he steams up to like 7th, 8th round, because it's like,
well, Woody marks, he's he's gonna be the 1A there and he's a
pass catcher, like high value touch guy.
That's like a screaming, screaming fade for me where I
just I won't touch a player like that with a 10 foot pole because
it's it's so there's no talent mode, you know, like.
No. It it might be a player you've
literally never heard of before, like undrafted free agent comes
in and takes a job or like veteran that they sign in week
four of the regular season comes in and takes, you know, like it
could be could be all kinds of disgusting that displays they do
they really like him. So he's got that going.
On and that's what's going to get people in love with him
there's like I saw there was a video of that amigo Ryan was
like that's your running back right there that's your starting
running back in in like week 5. I can see like that kind of
stuff giving him like a a a price and and then also people
know what they traded up to get him and but does seem like a
replacement level running back at this point, which is good.
But like you said, no, no talent mode.
The the tune can just change on those guys on a dime, right
where like, you know, the coaching staff loves him and and
he's their guy until you literally find anyone that's
just one iota better than replacement level.
And then it's curtains for that guy and all the volume that you
thought was going to him is now out the window.
And it actually turns out that Dari Goonbawali's the guy they
prefer and long down in distance because after a full year with
woody marks, they realize they really just prefer Dari.
You know, Dari makes them feel more comfortable in pass
protection. And then you're sitting there
with seventh round woody marks wondering what you've done with
your life. I kind of, I kind of keep.
It though, I just want to be clear on what we're saying.
We're saying that in in 2026 there's a chance that a player
like De Ray just takes his job and and, and that you and that's
why you should not pay an 8 round pick for him in 2026.
Yeah, in 2025 he is probably like, you're totally fine.
Oh no, I don't have any running backs.
I need to fill in someone as a starter this week.
Like you're very happy to plug in Woody Marks as a as a
starting running back. You know, he's not your first
choice, but he's definitely better than like crawling
waivers for nobodies, you know, but like he's a he's a awesome
dynasty cell right now. Like if you happen to have woody
marks in dynasty, this is like a the pico top on woody marks.
Maybe maybe you could if you're greedy, you hold him into the
offseason to like try and write out the news cycle for when it's
Woody Marks RV one season. You know, the the Texans make it
through the NFL draft. They didn't draft anybody and
everyone's like, Oh my God, it's Woody Marks to the moon.
Like then that's the Pico top. But yeah, he he's a cell
candidate for me and dynasty. But someone where you're you're
not upset if you have to start him in in fantasy right now.
Right. Prefer him to Chuck and.
And so there he is. Here's our guy, Woody King.
That's our running back. And so we move on to to tight
ends. I mean, don't even bother.
You had another note, Sorry. I I didn't, I was going to say
don't even bother going back to the running back chart, but
Jerry Mcnichols looks kind of sick.
Jerry Mcnichols is at least good at football.
Yeah, he's a, he's a, he's a fun now he's a fun pass catcher.
Yeah. So your first note was Tucker,
Tucker Craft, where he's just so efficient.
Dude, Tucker craft just like breaks all the look at look at
the Tucker craft a dot. It's 4.4 targets per route run
are are good. You know, it's not like he's
still it's lower than Harold fannon.
It's lower than Trey McBride. Obviously, you know, it's a it's
a solid targets per route run, but you know, he's a low A dot
guy. He's like, I don't give a shit
about low A dot. I'm just going to run for
1,000,000 yards after the catch. He's really, I mean, early in
his career he got a lot of the like, oh, he's like Kittle
junior comp and I so was not about that, but he does he he
doesn't do the downfield stuff that Kittle can do, which is why
I take such umbrage with that comparison.
But man, after the catch Tucker Kraft can George Kittle with the
best of him Like he he looked pretty awesome.
He's a yak machine. He really is.
He had like in in his monster Week 8 game, he had eight
targets, 20 area yards. So yeah.
And I think I'm pretty sure all of those area yards came on like
a single target. I think it, yeah, I think it
was. There was just one target that
was a little, you know, it's like an intermediate pass and
everything else is just like these little dump offs and it's.
Like 15 of it came from one target and then like 5 of it was
the other 7. Last I remember last year, like
talking with I think it was Pat or I can't remember if it was
Pat or if it was just in the, you know, rankings crew.
But it's like, dude, Tucker Kraft is like the most Primo
regression candidate of all time.
You're telling me this guy who like has no air yards just gets
here from like guys falling down around him?
He's just racking up all this yak.
Like it's such an easy regression spot.
Like there's no way this guy stays this efficient and he he's
just one of the, you know, Gretsch all the time talks about
like the whole point of this game is that you're actually
trying to find the outliers. So like just looking at like,
oh, well, this guy's going to regress.
So like you can't, you can't just beat the game doing that
being like, oh, well, this guy is a major outlier.
So that's not going. To work, it's like, it's like
the Mahomes thing where it's like if you take his touchdown
percentage down the average, the average, pretend on the average,
this guy is really average. You know, the the author of that
Mahomes infamous Mahomes Reddit post, that guy was laughing
straight to the bank over the last two years.
But I I hope he cashed in all the all the clout that he got
for the last two years of of the Mahomes down fantasy production,
because this year Holmes is going scorching it.
Yeah. But it's like it's the way
Tucker Kraft wins is like he's a yak God.
So he he's going to continue being yeah, God that that's
that's the point. And obviously this was a monster
game for him. Like definitely big spike week.
Spike week. He's going to have done games
too. And but and Monster monster
game. Yeah, I'm just, I'm, I'm making
a mental note. I'm filing in a way that
whenever you're trying to like project these players going
forward for a season, efficiency is really hard to project for,
for, you know, for the most efficient guys, you just never
like, it seems so wrong. You're like, yeah, Devon and
Channel have 5 yards of carry or 5 1/2 yards of carry.
It's totally fine. Trust me.
Really. That's like, that's a pretty big
number for. But for some of those players,
you just have to be like, yeah, that's just, that's how they do
it. Like, you know, that this is the
profile. You know, it's gonna be an
outlier and just get used to it. It's gonna feel in company.
Tucker Kraft is going in that mental model for me where it's
like, yeah, this guy's just an outlier.
So when you, you know, are projecting him going forward and
you're like, there's no way this is right.
This seems so crazy given the underlying metrics, just like
remember that it's actually OK because he's he's one of those
guys where it's like, yeah, the efficiency is just weird for
him. He's just crazy efficient.
That's what he does. So yeah, Tucker Kraft monster
game definitely helped me helped me come correct on him.
The other the other guy that I think fantasy gamers need to
come correct on Harold Fannon, the breakout is here.
I don't know if you know this Trico.
Do you know which pass catcher on the Browns currently leads
them in receiving yards? It's probably Harold Fannon.
Probably, Comfortably, it's Harold.
Fannon So I'm pretty sure Harold Fannon is the odds on favorite
to lead the Browns in receptions, receiving yards and
touchdowns by the end of the season.
Like I don't think it's particularly close for anybody
else. Like he's he is definitely the
dude going forward. Then Joku trade rumors, they
cooled down for a little bit, but I saw some stuff I think it
was just yesterday that there may still be interest to move
him at the deadline. And I, I do think it makes sense
for the Browns, like you just need you need to build going
forward and and having Ninjoku, I mean, unless you're gonna
extend him like doesn't really do anything for you.
So it would not shock me at all. I I know it's gotten a little
quieter lately, but it wouldn't shock me to see ninjoku move.
And if that happens, it's like Harold Fan and all you can eat
buffet. Not not even really that Ninjoku
is so much direct competition for him, but just that I, I
think they would force him to do yeah, he he would have to do a
little bit more like this. You know, percent of team drop
backs is just going to go up for him a little bit there.
So he was at 74% in week 8 and that that's where in Joku.
So in Joku was down to 58%. And so Harold Fannon, he led the
tight ends in in rats last week. And interestingly enough, Harold
Fannon was also ahead in in line and snaps taken from in line
tight ends. So at least in week 8, it was
like para found in 1A and Joku 1B.
I, I, I, I I feel a little bit of caution as to hey, was that
because of the fact that the in Joku injury and they're just
like kind of testing the waters a bit.
And but certainly, certainly watching out if that continues
next week with with anticipation, hopefully that
continues and, and and Bannon has has is, is well on his way
to a takeover. If if that does, if that is what
happens, like they almost certainly have to trade him at
this point, right? Yeah, I, I don't think that
Ninjoku snaps were because of injury because they still had
him in the game very late. In fact, he catches the garbage
time touchdown for the Browns at the end.
So if this was a situation where, oh, this is a player that
we really are just trying to work in, we don't want to get a
ton of snaps for him. We're just easing him back as
part of for the return to play. You don't have him in at the end
of the game when you're down, you know, whatever it was.
How? Do you not trade in Joku if he's
your tight end too? I mean, that's my the other
thing is like, you put the guy in and you, you force a
touchdown to him in garbage time to show that he's right.
You know, like, hey, look, he's, he's fine, he's healthy.
Don't worry about it. Like to me, I'm I'm getting the
end. Just all the bread crumbs from
way back in August to now, you know, there there's been enough
smoke. There's definitely some fire
there that that I think in Joku, I think it's I would I'm
struggling to say it's more likely than not that he gets
moved just because nothing ever happens.
You know, you can take take nothing ever happens to the bank
so often. But I mean, like, if you put
yourself in the brown shoes, moving in Joku is so so I mean,
dude, for a for anything, moving in Joku for 1/5 is a huge win
for you, right? Like that's gonna turn what's
gonna happen this season is like nothing of consequence by
keeping David and Joku. Like does he?
He doesn't help you win or lose any additional games.
You know he if when David and Joku is out the line doesn't
move the Browns win probability doesn't change in the game.
So like that doesn't do anything right?
And I don't even know if the if the if the pick they they get
from like the compensatory pick, like not you only get those
picks if your free agents sign leasing contracts.
Like I don't even know what the the market value for a joke is.
And, and in terms of like what, what, what does, what contract
does somebody sign in Joku to in 2026?
Yeah, let's see is there so it's based on their new their new
contract average value, the percentage of snaps they play
with their new team. Yeah, yeah, I think.
I mean, if I'm if I'm the Browns, you're.
You're not anticipating in compensatory.
No, no, you, you want the bird in the hand rather than the I
mean, based on what I'm seeing here, you're looking at like .3
birds in the Bush, you know, like you're not guaranteed a
comp pick. So you definitely they're very
incentivized to trade him is is the thing.
Right, right, right, right. And they're not.
I mean I. Feel like we've been talking
about this all that all 8 episodes of that 2025 S chasing
but when it happens, Oh my God. Yeah, it's almost like we have a
bias towards Harold fan and like maybe we drafted a ton of them
or something. Got it.
Draco, I just want you to like from from being behind the
scenes in in the rankings chat all summer.
Like pretend that we lived in a universe where none of us
checked Pat on this fan and stuff the whole because for in
early in the you know, like April May, like we're all
pouring cold water all over Pat for the fan and stuff.
Like dude, no, the like Harold Fannon is not gonna be like
you're way too high on Harold Fannon.
He's not gonna be a thing. We get it.
He's fun, he's cool, but like just know, what if we lived in
the universe where Pat we just we got the unadulterated Pat
ranking of Harold Fannon and we just, I mean, we'd all have 100%
like we'd have a literal 100% Harold Fannon.
It would be so. Funny, the only reason I don't
have like close to 100% is because he started going in like
the 12th round or something like crazy like that in late in the
year. We did go going into FFPC.
On Harold Fannon, yeah, we had going into August, I think I
had, like I I said, 100%. I think I had like 50 or 60%.
Yeah, I think we were. I think we were 60% Harold
Fannin in in August and then then he started to get away from
us. I think we ended up around like
40% or something like that. But man, we we truly could have
it. It's funny, but like I'm I'm not
exaggerating the slightest when I say that if Pat had his way
and none of us poured cold water on his Harold Fannon process, we
would have 100. If you were a leg up sub, you
would have 100% Harold Fannon because Pat would have had us
taking him in like the basically like as soon as Dalton Kincaid
was off the board, I think it was Harold Fannon time in Pat's
mind. So that's a refrain you would
have got. Him.
And that was correct. Yeah, yes, it was, dude.
I Yeah, I just, I've learned to never doubt Pat's rookie tight
end rankings from the man who brought you undrafted, Sam
Laporta. I mean, he tried to bring Harold
Bannon to the people and he succeeded, but man, there were
trials of tribulations for him along the way.
All right, the last hit in note that I had, again, not a ton of
change here, although I do realize I need to pull Darren
Waller off this chart now as he is on IR.
But the Darren Waller is a good segue into another old dusty
tight end. But this old dusty tight end
still had enough in the tank to put up a pretty big spike week.
And that's Travis Kelsey still sitting there with 20% targets
per route run, although I'd expect that to fall in the
coming weeks as we get more Rashi.
But yeah, Travis Kelsey, I put in the notes.
The old man still has it, but not really.
He's just attached to one of the best offenses in the league.
It was not really a a Travis Kelsey game.
In fact, Travis Kelsey was like part of the reason the Chiefs
got off to such a bad start. He pops up a great pass, passes
right on the money, He volleyball sets it to the
defender, turns it into an interception early in the game,
but doesn't matter, Chief still keep him involved.
Ends up with a touchdown late a couple big plays.
So Kelsey's still able to produce like a high end tight
end one for fantasy. I just think it's going to be
pretty few and far between and and volatile with Rice here.
But it's it's so much just driven by the fact that you're
on the Kansas City Chiefs. This team's going to score a
bunch and and very much not like Travis Kelce's still got some
left in the tank. Like there's not anything left
in the tank, but the fumes are enough to score well for
fantasy. It's kind of wild.
So he's still tight end 10 in their yards like and obviously
that that's like for at at at tight end of Travis Kelce's elk
and caliber tight end 10 in your yards is garbage.
But just given how washed he is, like that's like that's kind of
pretty good. And where is he?
He's in terms of targets, he's tied in seven.
So like I, I guess like probably like he's, he's firmly in the
mid tier tight end 1 range. And and like you're saying it,
it's just because he plays Mahomes and and that's probably,
he's probably going to trend towards tight end 12 with all
the rushing stuff. Yep, he'll be.
He'll probably be overdrafted in playoff basketball and it'll
probably kill me. I, I anticipate having a big
faint on Travis Kelsey in playoff basketball because the
price is so ludicrous. And then it's going to be the
Super Bowl. I've got a gang of Chiefs teams.
I got them all. I got all the Chiefs.
I'm just so woefully underexposed to Travis Kelsey,
who has a send off game in the Super Bowl for 3 touchdowns as
he and Taylor Swift right off into the sunset on her private
jet with his, you know, final Super Bowl trophy.
Defence balls out gets the gets the Chiefs to the two and
they're like this is the legacy Travis Kelsey game get him the.
Ball Travis Kelsey shovel passes, you know, out the ass.
So you're just getting all the all the manufactured bullshit
Travis Kelsey touchdowns. Yeah, I can see it so clearly in
my mind's eye that you know I. I let him do to Travis Kelsey,
just find the soft spot in the zone play.
Oh, I'm, I'm literally, I'm already tilting over playoff
basketball teams I haven't even drafted yet because I just know
that Travis Kelce is gonna bury me because there's no shot.
There's no shot. The market prices him
appropriately. He's gonna go so overdrafted.
But it won't it won't matter at all.
All right, I think that's all the tight end notes I have.
Let's get to the wide receiver charts.
Sorry, yeah, we don't need to talk about any of these losers.
Not not a ton to change here, not not a lot of big changes in
wide receiver. You know, there's only so many
times that we can talk about the ambiguity of the Chargers wide
receiver room. I think like previous analysis
still stands there, you know, JSN Chase, the Cowboys are are
still who they are. The ones that I had notes on
that were I think worth discussing a little bit is Chris
Olave, who I believe leads the league in targets right now,
gets the quarterback change to Tyler Shuck.
So Rattler has been great for him.
And I know, I know the perception might not be that
it's been great, but it's been pretty darn good, man, I, I
know. Yeah.
You know, relative to how many targets he's been getting, it
feels like a lot of meat's left on the bone or like, you wish
that there had been more. But like all things considered,
it's been pretty good for Chris Olava.
Yeah, it's been solid. It's been solid.
What do you think about? Is a disaster, absolute
disaster. So Spencer Rattler, he had 21
pass attempts and he played his worst game of the year and he
had 4.3 adjusted yards per attempt.
Tyler Shock, he had 30 pass attempts and he had 2.8 yards
adjusted yards per attempt. So like meaningfully worse than
Rattler's worst game of the year.
I am given how bad we already expected Chuck to be and
disaster I I do my. The one consolation is I think
he's so bad that they can't like possibly stick with Chuck for
very long. I think it goes back to Rattler
pretty soon. I, I mean, I can see an outcome
where it goes back to Rattler, but I feel like with how few
games are left in the season, you know, you, you probably, I
think they got it right. That you want to give Chuck a
leash? That's what you're telling me.
Yeah, you want to, you want to ride with it because you need to
know like definitively I. Think that.
You you very well could be right.
He so that's I think that's actually a really good point
that if Chuck's really, really bad, you get back to Rattler.
And I think that's actually like very good analysis with respect
to what it means for Crystal Labe where the floor it it's not
actually possible for the floor to be all that low because if it
really is the worst outcome, you get back to Rattler, which has
been good. And so I mean the way.
I'm looking at this it's heads Chuck is proves me wrong and he
actually does similar to Rattler for tails.
He's so bad they go back to. Rattler that you get you get
Rattler back. Yeah.
So this is a this is a keep a close eye on it.
And and as you come up on trade deadlines in, you know, fantasy
home leagues like Chris Olavi is probably a screaming buy for me
if you get a couple bad Shuck games, right.
That's that's one where I just want to go ahead and embrace
that variance and, and say, Hey, I, I've got my third eye open on
this one. Either Shuck gets better and,
and Olave gets better or they got to go back to Rattler and it
gets better for Olave. So I think overall, like your
sentiment then has to be net bullish for Olave because like
it's either neutral because like you're, you're going to get back
to Rattler eventually. And like, sure, you're going to
miss a couple games of production potentially in in
that journey, but by the time you get to the money weeks, then
you're back to what you had. And then there is the upside
where you end up with Shuck being good or, or at the very
least, like Shuck could even be bad and be good for a lobby,
right? He could be he he's a little
Jameisy in in that like he doesn't have anywhere near the
arm talent as Jameis Winston. He's he's, he's not as good as
him, but he's, he's willing to huck it downfield, you know, and
just do stuff that. Seems bad but but could be fun
for fantasy. So I think it's net bullish for
Olave, even even though I think we both agree that shucks, very
likely bad, but that's the most likely outcome.
Yeah, we we have this agreement that he does have draft it
stayed it's round two capital. So I don't think that's like
particularly strong. They they they they they want to
see what they have. But I'm, I'm honestly, he, he
was so bad. And like you, you who's the
who's the guy that the Ravens started a couple weeks ago?
Oh, Cooper Rush, yeah. Cooper Rush he he was.
Well, I look forward to Tyler Shuck breaking my chart next
week. And OK, the other receiver I had
a note on also with a quarterback change.
So that's the theme for this chart here.
Ted McMillan, we get him with Andy Dalton.
He posts a good stat line I believe finishes with like 7 for
99 yards or some something in that neck of the woods.
I know, I know. He finished that 99 yards.
People were very disappointed. People were tilting.
He didn't get the 100 yard bonus.
Yeah, he looked, he looked good to me.
There were a couple plays where Andy Dalton looked pretty bad.
So that was, you know, you're always, you're hopeful because
Bryce Young had been so bad that like, well, Andy Dalton
certainly can't be worse. And he doesn't look worse.
He just looks like a different kind of bad than Bryce Young is
bad. You know, it's just like.
Yeah, The the thing I've heard and it seems true to me that
with these veteran quarterbacks, they know what side their brat
is buttered on. They know like, hey, if I want
to play more, I got to trove to the good guys.
Forget about my progression, my reads, my read is I trove to the
good player. And I, I think, I think he did
that like this was in terms of targets per out run for, for,
for Team Mike, this is so he was 29% targets per out run.
He had a 36% game, but he was mostly around that in he was
like in week 7 he was 15%, week 619%, he had a 24% in week 519%.
Week two he was 19%. Week 1, he was 23%.
So I, I, I do think you get, you get that element where Andy
Dalton now understands the assignment, get the ball to
teammate in a way that I don't think Bryce Young is as on board
with. Yeah, I, I think that's fair.
It's, I mean, watching, watching Dalton play though was a little,
it's just a bit of a butt down because because you're like,
you're just optimistic that you know, you're, you're picking
Jelly beans out of a birdie bot's every flavored bean box
and you just finished, you know, you've been eating the Bryce
Young flavored Jelly Bean for weeks.
And then you grab the Andy Dalton 1 and it looks like it
could be butterscotch, but it's actually vomit and you're just
really disappointed. That's kind of how I felt about
this one. So I don't think that it's like
a a huge boost to to tat like I I thought that was in the range
where it's just a massive boost for him because it's it's
competent quarterback play. But I don't think you get
competent quarterback play. I just think you get slightly
different bad quarterback play, but that's probably.
You get more volume, but not. A little, yeah.
It's a little better for TAT, right?
So maybe not necessarily better for the team, but certainly
better for TAT. In the, in the main event that I
have with Daniel and and Kyle, we were starting the the Buffalo
defense last week and obviously we had a good day.
But the one I the one the one player I remember is they're in
they're in field goal range. And I'm worried that the the
Panthers will get the will get the field goal but and before
the half. So that obviously the the points
against decreases your defenses points, but they get the sack
and Andy Dalton and they're not able to get the field though
that was. Such a brutal play.
That was a terrible, terrible sack.
Yeah. I enjoyed the hell.
Did you, did you see? So that was one of the worst
ones. That was like as far as Andy
Dalton plays where I'm like, Oh yeah, never mind.
This is this is really bad. That was one of the worst.
Did you see the play where Ted has all the space in the world
to the sideline? Like he is wide ass open.
You just need to put the ball anywhere in bounds between Tet
and the sideline and it's a catch, right?
And instead so he's breaking out and instead Andy Dalton puts it
behind him, which is right to the defender.
And it like by the grace of God, ends up not being an
interception. It's like Jesus Christ, man,
like miss anywhere else. Miss anywhere but the way that
you missed. And yeah, so they're those two
plays stuck out to me as like, oh, man.
OK, so I don't think the Bryce Young soft benching lasts all
that long. Right, right.
What did you say last week? 2 Andy Dalton's away.
Dude, you were so you were so prescient on that.
Like, I really, I thought we could get a lot more Andy
Dalton, but you dude, there's sometimes your your Gadsden call
you're you're 2 Andy Daltons away.
Sometimes you are just absolutely dialed in.
So I got to give you your. I appreciate that I I got to
make up for it when when my garbage takes so I.
Oh man. OK.
I think that's all the receivers I want to talk about on this
chart. There's actually a couple guys
on the the 70 to 85% route run chart that I start being broken.
It's so funny to me. Yeah, when I mean, well, Puka,
Puka should be back this next week.
Hopefully we get him to graduate to the full timers chart so he
can stop breaking this chart. But yeah, Puka, you know,
totally, totally skewing this chart.
But a guy that I think had a really, really strong first game
back and could have some room to the upside just.
Based on he's, he's gonna be on this chart for a while.
He's he's only on 81%, right? Sure.
No. Well, another guy who's gonna be
on this chart for a a while is Terry Mclaurin cuz he just
hasn't hasn't played very many games and he's down here at, you
know, lower than 80% route. So he's got a got a little ways
to go. But Terry Mclaurin looked great
in his first game back, has two spectacular like 2 catches that
both were good enough to be like wow, catch of the week level
catches, just acrobatic, like sideline, incredible, incredible
concentration. Looked really, really good.
Right? Kind of at the time where we're
getting Debo starting to wane a little bit.
You know, you had the really strong start to the season for
Debo and and now that's that's sort of fading back.
He he just, you know, he couldn't keep that going for all
that long. I think that if you get Jane
Daniels back and Terry Mclaurin healthy, we might be in.
We might have some of those like classic Terry Mclaurin spike
weeks in store that we saw from last season.
The commanders need it, man. The commanders really need it
like badly badly. I mean they need they need some
stuff to help the run game out a lot 'cause it's it's looked
pretty bad these last couple weeks without Daniels.
So that deep threat to like take the top off the defense and open
up space underneath cause the, the horizontal raid is just not,
not working very much right now. Like when, when teams aren't
scared, the horizontal raid is nice because it spreads teams
out and creates a lot of space, right?
But if they don't have to worry about the deep pass, then
they're really not all that spread out.
They're just spread out. Horizontal, everybody just
shades down the. Horizontal raid works because in
general, teams really care about not giving up the explosive play
now in the NFL and they'll keep 2 safeties deep just by like
that is the default, you know? And so when those safeties
aren't threatened, then the horizontal raid really starts
to, starts to look a lot worse. So just like we, we actually, we
talked about kind of a different phenomenon, but similar in that,
oh, this team really needs this player or this type of, you
know, help. We talked about the Patriots
really need pass catcher help. And so that was the thesis for
maybe Kyle Williams could get some work that didn't work out.
The Patriots resolved that issue by Drake may just being the
literal best quarterback in the league.
So it doesn't matter. He's just like, Nope, don't
don't really need any wide receiver help.
Actually, I'm fine on my own. You just whoever is out there it
it'll work. So we're we're at a similar fork
in the road for the commanders where it's like they really need
vertical help. And God, Terry Mclaurin is like
the only guy, he's the only man for the job.
So by necessity kind of seems like a good spot for him.
So he's one I wanted to to kind of call out going forward.
No, that's that's a good shout. I appreciate that shout.
That is a good and and he's been playing well.
Obviously he had to leave the other game with the injury and
they were easing him back in at last night, but he he he's
playing really well. OK, Draco, I'm actually
conflicted on this second note that I have in our show notes
because we did talk about this being a spot to attack last
week. But then, you know, there's the
bye week and so kind of goes under the radar.
I still want to jam the hell out of this spot this week.
And I'm I'm almost like, Nah, if you care, you listened last
week, you already know. Go ahead and just say nothing.
Just let this guy go under the radar.
I don't, I don't think that's what we're supposed to do.
Yeah, I think that's I think that's bad podcasting.
So Travis Hunter, just a friendly reminder to the loyal
listeners out there, this is like the input volatility spot
of. All you make it to minute and
90, I'm stop chasing. You deserve a little nugget.
Yeah, a little. Nugget.
You can have a little Travis Hunter alpha as a treat.
Week minute 90 and weekly You can, you can.
Yeah, yeah, for all for all 8 of you that are actually listening
at minute 90 week 8 of stat chasing, go ahead and throw
something in the comments and and thank us for this juicy
Travis Hunter alpha. But yeah, he listen, this is the
input volatility spot because you have a number one like the
routes are it's very likely going to be his season high in
routes route rate again, because it's it's been trending up.
They're coming out of the by. You absolutely cannot have had
the entire buy to self scout and watch what you are doing with
Parker Washington and be like, yeah, Oh yeah, no problems here.
Business as usual folks. Like that's not a thing.
Yeah, you self scout, you see all of the Parker Washington
looks and we're like, yeah, what I actually we need to do this
more. There's and Liam Cohen.
Listen, Liam Cohen's a good coach.
Like there's. I have all the faith in the
world that there is no shot that they're looking at all the
Parker Washington opportunities and and thinking like, yeah,
this is fine. So I my thought is Travis Hunter
is going to get. He had 205 air yards, dude.
Yes, that's what I'm saying. And I I watched them all and I
was just pulling my hair out like it's not the other.
He's fine as a complimentary piece.
Like in in basketball season, I was like, yeah, actually Parker
Washington could very much legitimately be a guy on this
offense. Like, I know Diami Brown's the
one that people want to click, but Parker Washington could be
the guy. And I still believe that.
But like as as a complimentary piece, not as like the thing
that you're building the plane out of.
And, and like, to be fair to them, they can't build the plane
out of Brian Thomas because he's injured and just not playing
like the rookie Brian Thomas that we saw like that.
And I don't want to, I really don't want to shit on Brian
Thomas for that. Like, I understand that it's
really easy to be like, this guy's getting paid millions of
dollars to go out there and make these play like, I don't know,
guys like, I don't know if you've ever torn A labrum or
like had any serious shoulder. Yeah, like, dude, the he might
be in pain that none of us have even experienced.
You know, like he, he could be suffering such a severe injury
just with the way that he's acting too on it.
Like, I don't know, man. It, it, it really reads that way
to me. So I think this is the Travis
Hunter breakout game where you'll probably get projection
systems like at least more appropriately accounting for his
route share this week. But I think his targets per
route run just go through the roof after this.
Like the plane has to be built out of him.
Like you can just here, here's a hint, whatever the Parker
Washington projection is from whatever projection system you
use, take half of that and just assign it to Travis Hunter
instead. And that's how you combat this
input volatility. And, and really you can probably
go more than that where you dock Parker Washington by half and
you give Travis Hunter, you know, 1.5 X of whatever you took
away from Parker WA because you're saying the reason they're
getting away from this Parker Washington stuff is because they
need Travis Hunter to be more efficient with it.
And you just lean into the talent and say that's going to
happen. So there's all your Travis
Hunter alpha. That's probably like right
around what I'm going to do for for any of my DFS.
Right, the things you say to him like this sounds what what will
actually do. Yeah, so you, you said you said
we should share the alpha. So all 8 of you come join me.
Slam Travis Hunter. I'll see you at the top.
Yeah, then and then, and then your last note was on this page
was about Keenan Allen who who's his, his route share Salid.
It was the lowest of this year by fire.
Yeah, I think it was down to what, like 41% or something?
And it it, it was like 55. OK. 55, maybe 41% snapshot.
But it was down from like he'd, he'd been in like the 70s and
80s. And then, yeah, so it was 50%,
sorry, 50%. OK.
And so who actually did see? You actually, you got a little
bit of Trey Harris. He got a little bit of train
Harris, but he he played in Week 7 too.
Yeah, I, I, I, you know, earlier in the season I was on the
Keenan Allen hater train and I think I, I've, I've departed
from that train. I'm no longer on the Keenan
Allen hater train. I think that was, that was
incorrect. I just think he's like
functional member of the offense #3 you know, like him, Brad
Mcconkey, QJ. Now you have Gadsden in the mix.
He's just like functional member of the offense.
I think as the season progresses, it is starting to
trend in the general direction of the talent that we had
evaluated for the players. Or hey, it actually turns out
that LAD is the best receiver on the team.
And you know, maybe, you know, QJ shouldn't be going
thermonuclear every week. And so I think you're going to
get this hierarchy where LAD is not the way the team shakes out.
I don't think it's ever going to be like a clear 123, but more
along the lines of like 1A through 1D, you know, But I
think there's there's differences between one.
Like a couple weeks ago I was just like the chartered
receivers are all the same and you just, you don't really care
to sort out the difference. Just like know they all could
get there. But I think it's going to get a
little bit more clear where it's like lads, the clear favorite.
And then, you know, Keenan is probably #2 in the pecking
order. And then you have like Gadsden
and QJ. But it wouldn't surprise me if
Gadsden hops Keenan here. But do you do you think this is
signal for like, is this a trend where Keenan's going to get
lower opportunity going forward? Or is this just a, you know,
hey, the Chargers are beating the brakes off him.
They don't need Keenan Allen out there running meaningless
routes. Yeah.
I mean, he's still like, he's still got it.
I think he got like four or five targets.
And so he's still involved. And when when they need an easy
button first down, like Keenan Allen is still so good at that.
Like I know, I know Mcconkey is is fantastic too and he's a much
more dynamic player. But it I think that Keenan
Allen's, his ability to just get open and make an easy target for
a first down is going to give him a Moat in the offense.
I'm looking here who did get who did get routes?
So took her fisc got a lot of got 7 routes and Scott Matlock.
OK, so it's. It's all 7 rounds they're
running, running all the heavy personnel stuff and the two
tight end stuff just playing from the lead cause Matlock's
their full back and most of his routes are just like.
Right. So he he got 3 routes.
So I don't want to overstate that, but.
Yeah, Fisk, Fisk is another tight end and and he's out there
for blocking stuff. So they're just playing out of
the heavy personnel and that's that explains it because they
had such a big lead. So right, don't don't think it's
signal for Keenan Allen. Right, right.
He's he's at so 17 is at is 50%. You add on 6, he's probably his
normal rate and and and and and and and that probably did go to
Fisk instead. OK, well, I'm glad we parsed
that one out there. Those were all the notes I had
on this chart. Let's take it to the final one.
Another broken chart. Rashi Rashi only needs like one
more game I think to get off this one, off this God forsaken
chart. Then then maybe he and Puka can
break the next chart together. Right, right.
We we can get our, our, our our our tertiary receiver chart
back. Yeah, I didn't have notes on
these guys, but I, I just want to briefly mention them because
there there was some stuff that I so Steph Diggs dealing with
the chest injury doesn't play as many routes or doesn't play as
many snaps, doesn't get as many routes as he had been getting in
the previous weeks. They he catches the ball like at
the goal line. And then it was very like keep
Steph Diggs happy coded where they they just like scheme up a
a play to him on the very next play and he gets the touchdown,
gets in the end zone. But it was like a, hey, we know
that we can't involve you as much as usual, but like, don't
worry, you're still an important part of the team.
But just like it's funny, 'cause like it's very transparent that
it's like that's a you know, if that's a less diva receiver,
like maybe that doesn't happen. But I I do think it's like good
knowing your personnel to be like, all right, like we, we
can't actually play this guy as much as like we would like to if
he was fully healthy, but we do want him to like be happy and
and stay invested in the team. So let's go ahead and force a
touchdown to him. So the Steph Diggs, you know,
I'm not super concerned about the lack of production this
week. I think it was more just injury
related. The other one, Marvin Mims, I
mean, like he he's like he legitimately belongs on this
chart. He will not be graduating, but
he does leave with a concussion. And but even prior to that,
like, Troy Franklin was taking his lunch and has been taking
his lunch. The Marvin Mims thesis that we
talked about all offseason of, hey, like this guy was basically
just taking the pass catching snaps out of the backfield
because they were so sick of, you know, their running backs
not being able to do anything productive with it.
Marvin Mims was basically the de facto pass catcher running back.
Yeah. Marvin Mims lunch has now been
eaten by Tyler Beday. You know, And so that's that's
basically why you're not seeing any progression in the Marvin
Mims opportunity. Like that's what's going on
there. Neither of those terribly
important, just just things that I had noted.
The one that I actually do think is worth talking about is
Christian Watson, who is back from his very late in the 2024
season, pretty bad ACL injury and immediately involved.
They target him on the first play of the game, like very much
intending to get him involved. Yeah, that was fun that they got
him involved so rarely. Yeah, he catches a deep pass.
Kind of hilarious that Christian Watson, who I think tore his ACL
like a full two months after Brandon Iuke is back on the
field and like not just being like very slowly worked in like
they used it this game, you know?
So he he he opened with a 65% red share, which often ACL is
very bullish. Yeah, he had he had 72 area
yards on 4 targets. And what this strikes me as is
like, if you, if you had golden yeah, this year you're like, uh
oh, I'm in danger. Yeah, any I've got a a tip.
This is gonna actually help that you, you might not believe that
there's anything you can do to help your golden teams, but I
promise this will help. If you go and you find all your
golden teams in the underdog app and you go into the function
where you can rename your team, you just put a little skull
emoji on the golden teams. That way you know to never look
at them again. And then mentally, you just
never have to feel the sadness of seeing the fact that you
drafted Matthew Golden again. That's probably the best thing
you can do for Matthew Golden teams in in all seriousness, I
do think Christian Watson. .9 are yards Machu Goulton on on on
Enrique 3.9. Good stuff.
Those are Tucker, about 100. Tucker craft numbers.
He didn't have 103% receiver area yard conversion ratio.
Wow. So he got.
He converted those 3.9 into 4 yards.
Hot dog. Good for him.
Yeah, it's Tucker Craft numbers. Unfortunately Tucker Craft has
like a 17,000% area yard conversion ratio.
Right. The way that I do think this
Christian Watson information is relevant is it's pretty bad for
other Packers receivers going forward because the pie was
already so split up that none of the guys are really all that
useful anyway. I mean, for me, it's there's
'cause like, I'm not playing Christian Watson in any format
yet. Like I, I need to see him being
more consistently involved. I, I don't know that that's
going to be something you can rely on.
So really you're just left with Romeo Dobbs as the only wide
receiver that's actually usable on the Packers.
And, and even he, he's not someone you're excited to start.
He's just like a guy you're really happy to have on
basketball teams 'cause he's way underpriced.
But like in a managed lead, you're not, you're not like
starting Romeo Dobbs because you're happy to do so.
You're doing it out of desperation.
I think the the thing that's most interesting to me, but it's
probably just because I'm, I'm sick and I've been doing playoff
basketball work recently. I'm very interested in the
Packers for playoff basketball because all these receivers
should be free. Like basically the the way that
you could play Packers is I need Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs and
then like I could take Tucker craft, but like I don't need to.
And then I just take whatever Packers wide receivers are there
in the very last round. Like I take Christian Watson, I
take Matthew Golden, I take Romeo Dobbs, I take Jaden Reed
if he's back, like I take Malik Heath.
You know, like I think if you're man Packers to the Super Bowl
just sets up some really fun stuff that you can do in playoff
basketball just with how they split up their their targets and
the fantasy points, the pass catchers, where basically you
can use those guys as the pieces for later in the tournament.
And they all go so cheap that you're never really sacrificing
much in the way of like early round advance rate probability
to get them. And so like, you can do
something where you've got 4 Packers on your team and you
took Jacobs and Love early and then the last two were your last
two picks and then you've got 6 picks that are, you know,
monster producers to help you advance.
I I'm pretty interested in the Packers in that regard, but
that's probably more playoff basketball talk than anyone
other than myself cares about. Right.
No, I find that interesting and I don't I, I, I, I, I, I suspect
that many will not remember that by the time they draft their
first playoff team and draft, but I I think that's super
interesting. The the one guy I wanted to note
here who had a little bit of a mini breakout with Nico Collins.
That was Jayden Higgins and he only he he only got what 34
yards? I think he got a touchdown as
well, but he was up to an 81% route share at 21% target spread
run. He he he played pretty well.
I guess I I have some small hope that that they continue to use
them more. I I actually thought from from
watching the game, I thought Noel looked better.
There's a play. They didn't play Noel much, she
only got like a. 40 No. Nope, they don't.
That's their thing. They don't play Noel much, but
when he does get on the field, he does look good.
Like he's he's making difficult catches, he's catching downfield
passes, he's catching stuff short.
The thing that bugged me about Higgins was there was a pass
where it was like the thing that you would think that a Jaden
Higgins is for like that kind of pass or is like a little high,
like outside the frame. But you're like, that's what
this guy's that's literally why we draft this guy, like go up
and get that. And he just like, it was just
really underwhelming to me to like it didn't.
It looked like he just didn't have a chance in hell at it.
It's like, oh, man, really. Like that's that's what you got
from me on that. Like that's kind of like what I
thought, you know, part of your appeal would be.
And I mean, I don't think it's fair to judge a player on one
Rep like that and be like, Jaden Higgins can't go up and get the
hard, hard to catch ones right. But it was pretty vivid to me as
like, I don't know why I watched every snap of that stupid Texans
49ers game, but I was really, really hoping for a, a nice
Jalen Knoll breakout and Higgins, of course, I drafted a
bunch of him too, but I have a huge, huge bag of Knoll and I I
just was feeling a little underwhelmed with Higgins.
I mean, he does get in the end zone.
And the positive for him is that the team is more willing to to
play him right. You do need to see the field,
the score points. So I don't know, I, I think you
really what you, you need the team to just stop being so
obsessed with these total losers and start using the guys they
spent high draft capital on, man, like I'm, I'm, I can't even
remember I I need to. Pull for Noel.
He has 77 yards, 63 yards in the last two games.
Like even on the 4845% and yeah, right chair, he's still getting
seven and six targets. So he, he, he's getting heavily
targeted. He's the target leader in in
this last game. Maybe maybe that what the story
you tell yourself is that Hutchinson is not vulnerable to
Jayden. You don't even need the shit on
Jayden Higgins. You you tell yourself that
Kristen Kirk is extremely vulnerable to Joe and Noah right
now, and that the same way we've been rooting for a flip inning
between and Joe Koo and Fannin, we should be saying rooting for
that same flip inning between Kirk and Joe and all.
Yeah, the the big problem for Jalen Noel is I think he's
basically exclusively slot. Let me pull up where he lined up
this last week yeah it's it's all slot man last two weeks 26
slot snaps 7 out wide 25 slot snaps 6 out wide He's getting
return work too he's getting kick returns and pot returns.
So what you really need for Jalen Dole to like have a
meeting for? Oh, Christian Kirk is missing
time, isn't he? So you've already got Christian
Kirk out? Right, right.
And so that that's why you're getting the 45% red share, but.
But no more because, because listen, Draco, one thing that
you might not understand, you know, simpletons like us don't
understand that you've got to get Jared Wayne his snaps.
You have. If you're not getting Jared
Wayne his snaps, I mean, are you even trying to win?
You have to get Braxton Barrios his targets.
If Braxton Barrios doesn't get his targets, what's what's it
all for, you know? Yeah, I I never even heard of
Jared Wayne until. Me neither.
Until literally I'm watching the
game and I see this guy go in motion and I'm like, who is this
tight end? He's not a tight end.
He's just a big ass, slow wide receiver that they decided that
they needed to play. So yeah.
And I guess Braxton Berrios is the is the is the slot receiver
that that he needs to beat out and, and, and Christian Kirk,
That is kind of wild. I I do think.
That they don't go and say, Oh yeah, shit, Christian Kirk is
back. You don't know we can't play you
anymore. I mean, that's that's the odds
on favorite for for outcomes like that's what's gonna happen
frustratingly, but the so it just doesn't.
Sense. No, it doesn't make any sense.
You spend a bunch of draft capital on this guy.
He's good, He looks good every time that he's out there on the
field and you're just refusing to play him.
Berrios did leave with a chest injury late.
So maybe maybe that's what we need for the Knoll breakout.
I mean, it's it's frustrating because it's like how I know the
genie, he hasn't had like a true genie out of the bottle game,
but like he leads you in receptions last week and then I
want to say in the previous week, he he's up there as well.
Like it's just what does this guy have to do for for you to
decide to give him more opportunity?
Like, do we really need like some monster 150 yard game with
a touchdown for them to realize that this guy is very like, I'm
not saying he's better than Nico Collins, but he definitely
deserves to at the very least share slot snaps with Christian
Kirk. Like, come on.
But anyway, I, I, I foresee us being frustrated with the Jalen
Null usage going forward. I mean, there's a sliver of hope
with the the barrios injury and maybe Kirk's out another week.
But like, I think we're just most likely to be frustrated.
But the talent is there. The talent is there.
The thesis was correct. This guy's good, right?
Right, I think that covers all our notes, unless you have
anything else. No, I mean I was thinking of
ranting about Jalen Knoll for like another 2535 minutes.
But I do think it's probably best if we just sign off.
Yeah. Thanks everyone, for joining us
for another week. We will.
We'll see you next week.