Today is May 15th the week. 17 schedule has been released and
we say goodbye today's of galaxies branding, divisional
matchups. Today, we are joined by a man
who won two million dollars, by leveraging week 17 correlation
and the author of the original week 17 article back in 2021, as
the foremost experts on the space will talk through our
favorite ways to attack week 17 and other ATP movement.
This is ATP. Chasing let
Clearly doing a great job hosting.
I hit the hit, the outro music and said instead of intro, but
uh, I'm a little bit is yeah, a little bit.
Little early people are already triggered by week 17.
We had to end the show immediately but anyways,
actually Pat. We're gonna Davis Davis here.
Yeah, yeah. Those are we doing?
How was, how was your weekend doing good?
A lot of dressing, this weather here.
A lot of drafting I did a lot of puppies last night.
A lot of puppies I did, I did a five-mile walk with my dog and
got five puppies knocked out. Well, I did it.
So we put these Elizabeth's. It is 97% full filled the puppy.
Yeah. It's Gonna Fill today.
I'm tempted to do one right now. I gotta say, what is your guys
optimal like multi-table? Number four for the giraffes.
Sorry if I'm 100% locked in, I can do seven optimal is probably
five and three, three is the perfect number of you don't need
to be scrambling around. I'm not, I'm not, I'm not like
100% locked in in terms of like by weeks and weeks, 17 and
everything yet. So I would not be doing seven at
a time right now, but in a month, I'll be able to do seven
at a time. I can get past for without
starting make mistakes. Yeah, for me, it's this without
the week 17 and playoff schedule.
Stuff I could do like six and be.
Okay, but now once you add that element in, that's where I like,
I'm just going to be so shitty at correlating for week, 17.
If I have to multi-table table. That man.
Yeah, thank Sam. You got like an eye patch thing
going here with the with the banner up top, can we Yeah.
Yeah, I can learn a bit of it. Yeah.
But anyways. Yeah, the week 17 stuff is out.
There's obviously a ton of by weeks are probably the biggest
difference. Although yeah and they're not
they're not in the underdog and like look I you know, I love
gambling, but I'm not going to memorize every team's by weeks
for the four days that the, by we should not available.
So I Maybe unknowingly have drafted dead teams, you know it
in the last five days or whatever.
So, hope not. I was drafting the other day
with the by weeks up, but mostly just to make sure my
quarterbacks weren't the same. I do think if you're someone had
a thread recently that was basically like, look, don't you
have two quarterbacks and same, buddy?
Yeah, I think it was a Neil Neil Farley meal.
Yeah, yeah. I think his point and to
paraphrase it quickly is, In times the difference between
second and third place is like 10 to 20 points and that's
oftentimes what you're sacrificing when you take two
quarterbacks to the Same by week.
So I think it is one of those things where it's like a micro
Edge and it's not going to kill every single team if you do it.
But like, unless your Stacks just line up so perfectly that
it makes sense to do it. I'm avoiding it.
The one spot that I was really trying to make sure I wasn't
doing it in is I was I took hurts.
Then I pulled up the by weeks as like, okay, like, if I'm taking
her to, my backup quarterback is really just to help me advance
just to, you know, fill in a couple weeks and more to give
you a weird team in week 17. Yeah, right.
But that's the odds of that aren't great.
So and I was, I was punting quarterback to.
I wanted to get someone in like the 14th round or later, you
know, if you take like two or something, it's may be a
different story. But anyway, Stafford has the
same bye week as hurt. So I was It's like okay I can't
do Stafford have to build this team up with a different kind of
late quarterback to but I think maybe if you have like two like
if I was to have like Herbert and someone in like the nine
through 10 range maybe I would care.
Like slightly less. Okay, let me let me show you.
Let me sell you on a combinatorial Galaxy brand.
Let's do it. Stacking two teams that have the
same by week. And then taking a third
quarterback is going to ensure super unique combinatorial
ownership because other people are not doing that.
So say you take a quarterback a wide receiver in a tight end
from a team of the week 8 by and then you take another
quarterback wide receiver and tight end from a team with a
week. 8 by you accept that in week eight, you're taking a zero
at tight end, but you add a third quarterback, a baker, a
Ritter Whoever right will love us Mac, Jones magic.
Joe's gonna be starting and week a sure.
Sure. So if and when you get these
teams to the playoffs of that team Advance, you know, say
quarterback a with the week. A bye week has a bad week 16
game and he's the really high Advance rate player.
But your quarterback be with the week 8 by goes off for 28 and
throws two touchdowns the guys, you stack them with then all of
a sudden you have quarterback a in the final with like a mega Lo
Advance rate. Yeah.
I think that's interesting in like the week or the sorry, the
round 18 quarterback thing in general, is kind of interesting,
because I think a lot of people get really caught up in the two
verse three, quarterback thing and say, you take hurts and pick
it and then you're staring at Round 18, you know, Mac Jones.
A lot of people say that's that's stupid.
You should never do that. And I kind of get their point.
Like, I'm largely going to quarterback if I take an elite
one, but when you get into round 18, man, it's like you're
staring at just guys that are going to just be dead roster
spot. Running back and wide receiver
and getting a starting quarterback.
I don't think it's like the worst way to spend your round 18
pick, like back to the draft Capital point that, you know,
Leone's talked about. Pat, you've talked about that
round. 18 pick is worth like, what one dollar in your auction
drafts or something. Like I don't think it's
meaningfully changing your draft Capital allocation if you toss
on around 18, Mac Jones. And I did this with Mario my
last year and like people say it's bad or whatever, but
Advanced two teams to the finals and one of them.
M would not have made the finals, but I didn't get
Marianas mariota's. Round 18, regular season points,
so it's like, I don't know. It's like I get the down side of
it. There's obviously guys around
18, that can give you more upside than some of these
quarterbacks, but it's just like, so, guaranteed points in
some sense. Yeah, I think the, I think it's
fine if you're playing to advance the team like, that's to
me, that's what around 18 quarterback is.
Most likely going to be good for I agree that your chances of
hitting on your 18th round pick are very low but like there's
decent odds that someone in the 18th round Ranch is going to put
up a really good score and week 15 or 16 or 17 and therefore
because of how impactful that is to just get points out of that
spot. Your Advance rate for that
player is going to be pretty massive and so I think like
skipping on that lotto ticket there's like more opportunity
costs and it might seem because you're basically saying I'm
definitely not going to have the guy who Powers teams through the
single week elimination weeks. Now if you get a guy hope to
advance there in the first place, that's that's a fair
trade-off. But the odds that it's a
quarterback who is one of those dudes?
It's not zero. I mean Jared Goff went off as a
late-round guy last year. So, it can happen, but I think
your chances are better at trying to find like a wide
receiver know, you know, last year.
Yeah. You know what I mean?
Oh, she's doing great. So, crane, this is where I would
say, you know, it's again it's a matter of what you're doing
because we're talking about Advanced rate versus banking but
you know then you're doing the mental gymnastics of well yeah,
sure. So let's say you take League
winner X and round 18, you still kind of need him.
Um, to score a lot of points in week 17, right?
To kind of justify verse because if we're jogging Advance rate,
Mac Jones is likely going to have a better Advance rate or a
similar Advance rate in this scenario that we're talking
about as League winner X I'm around 18, right?
Mina, isn't it kind of functioning the same way?
Maybe, but like getting you, I guess what I'm saying is Mac
Jones might help you advance to the playoffs, but his playoff
performance is unlikely to be anything significant.
Like even if Matt Jones has a good week in the playoffs,
quarterbacks don't separate from other quarterbacks, as well as
the other positions. So like Mac Jones could have 25
for you and your other quarterback has 23 and it
doesn't have a meaningful impact on your chances of getting
through. I mean business, the same thing
is kind of true with your wide receiver 8.
As if you have a team that's good enough to advance to week
16 or whatever. You probably have three other
High Point scores at wide receiver to right.
Probably. But I mean it's a more volatile
position and if you get a guy and you have to fill Flex as
well and if so it's basically these things of like is there a
guy in the eighteenth round range who scores 25 points?
In week 16 week 15 16 or 17? Probably, yes.
So don't I and if you hit it and you could really benefit if you
hit on that guy, you know, this is kind of a mental trick that
we play in ourselves with best ball to because a lot of the
guys that we conceived of as League winners guys, who were
free, who scored a lot of points are largely not drafted in these
contests, we will think about guys like Elijah Mitchell,
right? He was Drafted the year he broke
out using. I want to say maybe he was
drafted in like 15 total leaves and then everyone remembers the
quarter. Well, Patterson you right
Cordell Patterson the year. He totally was 18, round pick
and blew up. He was on less than 10% of teams
taken and best Ball Mania like it.
The guys we think are our fantasy relevant.
At the end of drafts around 17, round 18.
A lot of those guys are guys who end up getting cut In the main
event or whatever. So it is I think those pics are
a little not to say, obviously that if you had just taken
quarter of Patterson 150 times, like you would have supercharger
Advance rate. You would have given yourself a
great chance to win the stupid million dollars or whatever, but
also the cost of going all-in on one of those guys and getting it
wrong to is also catastrophic for this catastrophic.
Yeah. You don't want to do.
Yeah, so it's just it's one of those things where I think we're
so far away from Understanding what is GTO that I don't hate
the round 18 quarterback, because around 80 quarterback,
start 17 games. It's probably going to add
points to your roster. It's probably gonna help you
advance rate and gets you live. You 17, and that unique way and
I think you should still like be conscious of what I use the
Jalen hurd's example, maybe as an extreme like that's not
really probably when I'm adding, they 18th ranked quarterback to
my roster. It's maybe more like you take
DeShaun Watson and round a and you know, Daniel Jones.
Is around 11, and then you stacked up taekwon Thornton and
JuJu. And then you're staring at Mac
Jones, round 18 verse like wide receiver, like 80 off the board
at that point I'm like, okay, you know what?
I think it's still a fine draft Capital allocation to spend
another quarterback here, maybe Max Jones doesn't give me the
ceiling week. That helps me win week 17.
I think that's possible but like Pat's that it's unlikely but
maybe you know one of my other quarterbacks is banged up and
week 15 and Mac Jones just gets me like 24 points and helps me
get through. So Bright.
That's where like I'm okay with it.
And I think people again think of draft capital in terms of
auction dollars, I don't think tacking on that.
Third QB with your eighteenth round.
Pick is really like over spending on quarterback as much
as other people do again. Like Pat's that I definitely see
the points around. You don't want to do that every
time and like there are running backs and wide receivers or that
separate that I certainly want stabs at but like I think I may
be a little bit more inclined to do it than the average drafter.
My thinking on. So, someone in the chat was
saying, I'm now turning my be a gypsy, like saying us turning my
back on three quarterback builds, I would say.
So if you're going to do the eighteenth round quarterback,
this is probably the time to do it because we are going to draft
more dead roster spots this time of year 100% agreement to.
Yeah, so that so I don't want to push back on it too hard.
I would say though. Like my philosophy on three
quarterbacks last year, Was if I'm going to do what I really
prefer to do it with three guys that I think do have upside.
And that historically has been more like, you know, in the you
want to be drafting your third quarterback still before like
round 14. I drafted Daniel Jones.
In round 14. I think there's plenty of guys
like maths Matt Stafford, you can get around 15.
I think he has like weekly upside where you're drafting a
guy is going to help you advance but also has like a realistic
shot as a Capacitor probably of blowing up in an important week
for you and so I don't actually think if you're going to spend
the three, prioritize, the third a little bit and don't just make
it, your last round pick because in that like Mariota someone
that I was avoiding like the plague last year because I was
like he's getting benched. So his chances of adding to me
in the playoffs are are very, very low.
That's just, I and I don't want to.
I don't want to take any of the job security guys.
That's fair. You know, I want, I want as many
live roster spots for the playoffs as I can get.
Can we just figure out who the fuck Ryan Tannehill is playing
for and week 17. This is this is not only
plaguing me in basketball, but it's also plaguing me and
Dynasty because I made a couple deals to trade for Ryan
Tannehill. But like, I'm starting, I'm
starting to get I did it. Another lead to.
I'm starting to. I'm starting to get worried that
he's not going to be in Atlanta Falcon, and it's just simply
going to be holding a clipboard while will live.
Us, you know just as like making mistake after mistake I think
the only I think the primary thing that would keep will love
us from throwing three interceptions per game.
Will Tannehill. Looks on disgusted From the
Bench is that the division is so weak that?
I think it would be hard for them to just write the season
off and we gate and well, Kevin Cole just did a breakdown of
their schedule and apparently it's much harder to begin the
year. And so they could be like, I
think it's through the first six games.
It's really difficult. And then it lightens up a lot.
So his thinking was there going to be like two and four?
They bench Tannehill and then let us actually as a chance to
look, okay? They gotta win the.
The most mandatory game for them to win is going to be this week,
5 game against the Colts. If they lose that game, it's
just going to be Levis time. Because yeah, it'll be, it'll be
if they lose that game against the Colts.
It'll be Danielle will be gone. So, let me Let me throw out
another idea here with 18th round pick because I've been
thinking through the same thing of like, all right.
You know, we're going to have issues finding these League
winners. By the way though, I did just
pull up last year's semifinals Advanced rates Zeta-Jones,
eight-point-one percent is the highest player.
Jerick McKinnon was second highest at 6.30.
Now I'll say later to me about drafted our football players of
all players. Drafted of the of everybody,
those who question the highest. So that does highlight the value
of finding a skill position player who scores a lot of
points. Like it is massively valuable
math. Yeah II.
Don't get it. I don't disagree.
That it's a massive, the part where I would disagree on one,
on spent specifically on May 15th is our ability to identify.
Yeah, May 15th last year people were not drafting say Jones.
Maybe they were drafting McKinnon, but definitely not say
Jones. They were Drafting and I think
but there's a lot of been drafting said, yes, but I think.
Yeah, I think we agreed that, like, I Think by August, we're
going to feel a lot better around about this late round
picks just because we know okay who won the RV to can't battle
for the Cowboys. Okay, it's Ronald Jones and not
useful, like people are wasting picks on running backs and wide
receivers right now that are going to get Jalen Tolbert ID
by, you know, August 100% like, yeah, that's something that's
the thing with ourselves enough. To remember Jalen Tolbert, being
like an 11th round pick on underdog.com.
Well yeah, so the other thing I want to flow is like, what about
a third tight end? Yeah, you know, do I this is
this is my preferred way to build II prefer having third
tight ends to a third quarterback one.
Because in a perfect world where you actually hit on multiples of
them, they're available to put points in your flex and even
Elite tight ends have bad weeks, right?
Even Mark Andrews a lot of Andrews get Mark.
Andrews gonna have four point weeks.
George cables can have Or Point weeks.
Kyle Pits might not top four points all season so they're
like there are going to be a lot of weeks not a lot of weeks but
there are going to be some weeks where Hunter Henry easily makes
your lineup like makes your lineup and it's not closed.
You know what I mean? Yeah and the thing that's really
interesting too is I think in the current draft landscape the
reaches a point where like the tight ends just from a base
projection, I think project way better.
In terms of points, then the wide receivers do like you're
looking at, I don't know. Hunter Henry verse fuckin like
Charlie Jones and Russell gauge like you're looking at Luke
Musgrave versus Allen Robinson, Jelani Woods first, Richie,
James and Cedric, tell him, I don't know.
And even when I kind of like but yeah, that might be helmet.
Is a good 18th round pick? Yeah.
Either like I think it just reaches cause of how much the
water seeped. Like Titans are actually a
little cheaper this year, at least.
Yeah, they're cheaper overall. Yeah, and wide receivers are
getting pushed up. Up.
So I think like I don't know, you're drafting slot, only wide
receivers were starting tight ends at a certain point like
Gerald Everett. First Lawndale Robinson like I
don't know. Joe never wanted a Mondale easy
baby know that that he's got that dog, get him.
Sam the Giants third slot receiver or sorted and for just
in her room. Yeah, so anyways, so that's
interesting. Tyler, Conklin is a starting
tight ends he's gonna be P of 196.
Train McBride is a starter for you, no problem Conklin.
Only starting for as long as he will talk about the Twin Towers
with Aaron Rodgers. The second, the second he gets
bored of that shit. You know, we're talk like
they're going to break isn't marcedes, Lewis on the Jets.
Is that a bit? I that was that was put out as a
bit so much over the last season that I don't even know if it's
true or not. Tyler Coughlin has a very long
beard in a man bun. I think he's gonna get along.
Just fine with Aaron Rodgers. Okay, Omar Sadie's, Lewis,
marcedes, Lewis is a free agent. I would bet at even money.
He is on the Jets roster at some Point.
I'm gonna go deep through US UJ. C Jo Selma's.
Likes on Twitter and see what he's 38.
He's marcedes. Lewis has 38 years old.
She's the same age as Rogers. Well.
Alright anyways let's let's let's let's get this show on
track a little bit. Should have done this up top but
we're going to be doing 80 be chasing on Mondays for the rest
of the offseason know. The schedule has been kind of
all up in there, the past couple weeks, but we're gonna do this,
try to lock in this time. Mondays at noon Eastern Time
throughout the whole offseason will be joining you guys.
And yeah, let's kick off with what we normally do going
through adp's. I took a look at week, 17
matchups to see how essentially our I kind of want to answer the
question are week 17, matchups, driving ATP movement.
And what this chart is showing right here, I took the top five
players from each. So say look at Kansas City and
Cincinnati which shows up as the most expensive game stack, I
took the top top five players by ATP for Kansas City, the top,
five for Cincinnati. Average there a DPS and that's
what's shown on this chart here on the gray bar.
So you can see Kansas City, and Cincinnati is the most expensive
game stack to stack up for week, 17.
Obviously the cheapest you see teams like Tennessee versus
Houston, New Orleans Tampa Bay, Etc.
So I thought this is kind of an interesting way to look at it.
If you're trying to optimize for week 17, what kind of prices are
you playing? Are you paying on these?
Different games. So yeah, I think it'll point out
first is Kansas City Cincinnati. That does seem to be the one
that is getting steamed up. There's not huge ADP changes
across any of these games, but the biggest Riser is Kansas City
and Cincinnati is up about one spot on average across the top
five players in each of those teams.
So that kind of makes sense to me.
There's a lot of sort of secondary tertiary pieces in
those offenses that are easy to grab.
And once you start that game stack, it kind of makes sense
that drafters are just scooping them up.
The other thing about that one is if you have like jail and
hurts, you know, you know like well shit maybe I'll take, you
know, Rishi rice herb Smith, you know, and Mark is valda
scantling and just like, get that game into, like, I've done
that, you know. And it's like, okay, Wilma homes
and Borough had big games. I have Jalen hurts or whatever
like I'm fine, I'm gonna be fine.
So I've done I've done stuff like that, it just it's like
hard you're not like alone is libero or Mahomes drafter when
you get into that range of the draft.
Like everyone's like uber sheer ice.
That could be fun and like the 12th round or whatever.
Yeah, I agree. That's interesting.
What's also interesting here that I'll point out and so the
purple bar or the purple lines in this chart are the average
ATP of the expensive team and the red bar is the average ATP
of the cheap team in the game stack.
So you look at two examples here.
Movers Philadelphia. Everyone is obviously all in on
Philadelphia's offense, but people are sticking far away
from Arizona with Kyler's injury.
That's kind of an interesting one where I think you can get a
lot of Arizona's pieces. If you want, Tyler Kyler three
quarterback teams Hollywood Brown wide receiver, 37 train
McBride wider star tight, end 27.
And then Kyler comes back like week, Kyler comes bet, ya one.
I think we're on those wide receiver. 74 Kyler comes back
and week nine and you have to Other quarterbacks, you know,
let's say you took Justin Herbert and Mac Jones just to
keep your head above water. And all of a sudden you have
this supercharged Arizona team. It's pretty.
It's pretty interesting. Sounds interesting.
Yeah. What do you think?
I'll apply though. Is it too thin to do like a
quarterback with a light by week and Kyler or you just are you
burning your Advanced rights too much.
As I like the idea like if you're taking a second or, you
know, if your we talked about the three quarterback build, you
do still want ceiling out at third quarterback in Kyler's,
definitely does fit that. Unfortunately, he has a week 14
by which is which really sucks. You're also losing that week
from him as well. I think a lot of sleep back to
our conversation at the top the week. 18 quarterback pairs
really well with Kyler just in the sense of getting a guy who's
going to give you points in the regular season.
I get Yet I get that, it's maybe not perfect for the playoffs.
But if Mac Jones is going to be valuable for your roster, it's
probably on a team like, where you have Kyler Murray, maybe
where you have a rookie quarterback, that's struggling.
Early in the year, I kind of see that I think it is tough.
If you're going to quarterbacks with Kyler I think it's got to
be one of the elite guys, right? Like it's probably got to be one
of the top five guys. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen and
Justin Fields all have week, 13 buys.
Seems doable. Yeah.
So you're at least not getting their bye week until Kyler's
back. If he's not back, you shouldn't
have taken them in. You might be sunk, but then he's
got a week 14 by. So that those got those two guys
or three guys, I guess Lamar Allen and Fields would be like
the dudes. I'd be most interested in
comparing his nose. Yeah.
The other one, I'll throw out and then interested with what
you guys think, but I think the Josh Allen stuff is a lot.
Lot more interesting when you don't consider his price in a
vacuum, but consider a not like he plays in week 17 and be the
number of like secondary, tertiary pass catchers.
You can get on the bills for Fairly cheap Allen and Mahomes
for the same deal this year where you can take them.
Let's say, let's say the digs drafter passes on Allen or the
Kelsey drafter passes on Mahomes for whatever reason and you
randomly get like a really good price on them.
You can be like alright well I'm going to fill this out rounds,
10 through 18. You don't, you could take those
knocks really late. You can take mvs, really late.
You can take Deonte Hardy with your last pick.
Richie James with your last pick.
Like there are a lot of different ways to do that.
I think in ways where you would not have felt confident about
that with with Josh Allen last year.
Yeah. Because you don't have gate, you
know, gate Davis in the third round.
Now he's in the seventh, you know, even though he's eating
his screams cookie or do too. Yeah, I think Kincaid is cheaper
than Knox was last year even. So it's and then Look at the
Patriots and you can get you know say what you want, about
Juju maybe not like Juju but pick your Pat's pass.
Catcher pick one of their tight ends I like Conner Henry I like
tae kwon Thornton like there's some interesting bring back so
you can get for absolutely Dirt Cheap on the Patriots that I
think project pretty well given their cost so I've taken Juju
which means he's not egregiously priced on taking them.
I think he's a total dust but yeah, yeah, especially like wide
receiver dries up. Up, you know and if you've taken
an elite quarterback, that's you didn't have a second round wide
receiver pick. So you might be a little thinner
at wide. Receiver, I've taken Juju I
think it's like my wide receiver 5 are as like this is gross but
I kind of got locked out. I could probably need, I
probably used the points early on in the season and then I'm
going to keep you know, I'm going to prioritize wide
receiver for the rest of the draft a little bit more than I
would have. But yeah, I mean he could he's
so it's like he's probably not like Juju is probably not a good
week, 17 pick because I don't know like how he's even gonna be
like running in week seven. What week what week is you're
doing good like week. Three week three is when I went
to GIF when's a week five? There's that's an apartment that
I'm like week 5 come on Juju here's the thing II.
Don't have any wide receivers in that range other than one guy I
have 43 percent Elijah more at this point.
Can't I just got to know Elijah more, man.
How do I click anyone else's name?
I mean, I'm gonna lie like all the other names what's on his
shirt and he was bad last year, what's that?
I don't care. I literally do not care.
I really don't. So the more stuff is interesting
because if you look at his like targets per outrun stuff last
year, it was like bottom five of all wide receivers that ran
above like 200 routes. Like it was Gabe, Davis
territory, I think like worse than gave Davis territory but
then you will get his charting stuff like not harm and
perception. Perception didn't see a huge
fall Off in Moore's, actual like route running success rates last
year and also he was amazing as a rookie.
So I'm gonna kind of fits with the narrative that yeah, Jack
Wilson just hated each other. I'm willing to give him a
little, the benefit of Doubt on some of his stats last year but
it's still. I think you do have to admit.
It's on it's on certain on his talent.
I do like I think I'm probably I don't think it's uncertain on
his talent. Is why weren't you more 56 and
open Score? Why don't you were 56?
It's not, it's not like he wasn't her.
Horrific. He's actually between Mike Evans
and Cooper cup so you know he was he's probably fine but he is
like a smaller guy. So like the ability to get open
is probably I just don't like for him to be for him to turn
into like a rotational bench wide receiver for the Cleveland
Browns at 23 years old, his rookie year would have to be
like an all-time Mirage which is not to say that it's not.
It does happen, right? I mean, Juju was so good.
Those first two years look how we were just talking about Him
the Buccaneers guy Michael Clayton, right thousand yards,
10 touchdowns rookie never heard from him again.
It's not to say that it doesn't happen but it seemed especially
because other teams were interested in him, right?
This is not like Denzel Mims where he hung around as a depth
guy forever. Even though the Jets tried to
trade him, like they found a trade partner for him, that that
to me is also kind of interesting, but to wash out of
the team that spent a second round pick on you in two years.
Is a major red flag. Me.
Anthony Miller comes to mind. Is it due to just like washed
out? God damn it.
This is the game. We've been playing.
We just been sending each other like awful comps for players
like just like guys who exist like what was what was the last
one we did Jalen Tolbert like jail and told us like it.
So like jail Tolbert. Just had the two most recent
things when you, when you search for him, are worked out with
that in like Cuba or whatever or Costa Rica and and that he's on
the roster bubble and that's the last message for rain sent me
is, I ask them. Is Danny gray alive.
And Pat just said he's Thailand Wallace West which is just like
damning him to hell like any great doesn't exist.
So Danny gray I had some 18th round Danny gray.
Last year, I think I got a tweet that it was it was the most
theoretical of all best ball picks and I've ever been in my
life 18th round Danny gray. I mean it was pretty good.
Theoretically have you get those?
Had to get those Trail and stacks.
Dude, I did that a bunch. Any other lady just guys that
are that are jumping out here and he did you want a final
world on? All right.
Yeah, I want to swim out Elijah more like he I do think that the
reason that I'm having trouble mustering like more excitement
is that I do think he's slot only there because they drafted
Cedric Tillman, who's like big-bodied X-Type and they also
have down on people's Jones who's a big Body deep dry cut,
isn't isn't Cedric Tillman just the pic so that they don't have
to pay dpj though isn't. That is maybe maybe but a more
Cooper I also went outside wide receiver as well.
So there's like the fact that it was just tpj or just Tillman,
I'd be like well if more is good he'll be able to play into wide
receiver sets but there's both of them and Amari I'm just like,
I don't know that he's playing it too wide receiver sets and
now I'm looking at maybe like 75% route rate on top of all
the, the talent questions which I think are Up in the air like
he could still be buried beneath 75% route radiant Canary Estonia
bite your arm off for the bills become knowing that
they're playing that this is their week 17 game.
Like it's just it's as bad as it could have been.
I think like this is a going to be a bad football game.
I don't know, man. They can, they could beat up on
the Patriots, they've done. What's the, what's the, What's
the total for that game? Going to be though, outdoor
Outdoors, January game, between the Patriots and the bills.
It's ugly. I just think the cost of the
learner's. So, so 37.
It's gonna be close at 4700. They said that my gut, my gut
was, if it's outdoors, if the weather, if it's if it's 17
degrees in the northeastern United States, it's going to be
like a 44 and a half total. We'll see how many what weather
will play a role whether want to play a role.
I'll want to throw out there. Is I look at these, my favorite
game is Giants, Rams actually think both these teams as a
whole in a vacuum or underpriced and best ball.
Daniel Jones, I think is underpriced.
He ran for seven hundred yards last year.
Got a huge, you know, say what you want about as wide receivers
are not amazing but it's a huge upgrade from what he was dealing
with last year. Adding Hyatt, adding Waller wall
or notes. Yeah.
I mean Who knows what that I think like last year was.
It can't literally can't get worse last year and he still was
a great pick and fantasy. You know, he's been pretty
cheap. Anyways, I like that game.
I like that shit out potential there with the table, Giants,
and Matthew Stafford, somewhat bouncing back to 2021 form.
And it's, you know, the third third cheapest out of all games
X2, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Houston.
Like I could see that actually having a pretty high.
You know, we flip over the Cards on week 17 and I think that game
could have a sneaky High over under if those teams play to
their ceiling. So I like that one quite a bit.
Any other games you guys want to talk about here or we'll be
tracking this throughout the season.
I'll throw one more I do like the the call on the Rams in the
John's a lot. I will throw out Washington and
San Francisco as a team where it's like, just don't guess the
quarterbacks just take take the pieces trance-like state.
Take jail and hurts and then stack the rest of the game?
Yeah. Like this game could have points
especially if San Francisco is just beating up on Washington
and then Washington has to throw see, see you know save face and
maybe they have be enemies the coach at that point and they're
willing to just lean on the past.
Yeah, I like that one a lot and I think both those to any any
team that has an uncertain quarterback situation, the
player atp's are just repressed because of that, we saw that
with Carolina Indianapolis Houston.
Those those teams are still cheap now, but you know, Nico
Collins just by knowing who is quarterback is now has shot way
up. Alec Pierce, just Minos
quarterback is has shot way up. So any team that is uncertain.
Few be people are afraid to take them.
I think the prices on Washington in San.
Francisco will remain. A cheap because of that for a
while. So that's that's an interesting
one. The game stack without the
quarterback for sure. Yeah, I agree.
Let's talk. Let's move onto the biggest
risers from this past week, so we're looking at the largest ATP
risers from May 10th to today, May 15th.
We have on the list, Alexander Madison as the biggest, Riser up
12 spots, then Christian Watson Irv Smith van Jefferson Darius.
Tony Jaden read Jerick McKinnon, Brashear Ice, Mike Evans, and
Rashad Bateman. I think the first thing that
clearly jumps out here is we have three Chiefs and one
Bengals player. So back to that previous chart,
people are targeting that game. I want to start with the
curious. Tony conversation.
He's maybe the guys that the most Buzz over the past week or
so, on fantasy Twitter. So, I want to just lay out the
case for Tony I made this quick visual here.
I think the central case with Tony is you look at the left
hand side of this page here Tony's /.
Route numbers are just off the charts yard for outrun 2.15
2.14. He's top 15 in yards per hour,
on each of the past two years and five routes in the sky.
There's like five wraps up this super exactly.
It's five routes in the Super Bowl, but he was one arm tackle
away from winning Super Bowl MVP.
If he scored that punt return dead-ass, he would have.
Yeah. And it's his routes like so I
think the people like don't quite realize his routes scaled
out, like, he kind of actually hit a peak, like towards the end
of the regular season peak being like 30%, route rate and then if
no no it was, it was more than that.
So I actually I've got a little bit of insight.
I think I know. Why they did this?
I think I think I think I sort of understand the Chiefs thought
process here because I think from the outside people are like
the Chiefs are getting nothing from these guys.
They're getting nothing from Justin W.
They're getting nothing from Sky.
How is it possible? They trade this third round pick
and I think basically they looked at canaries Tony and they
were like dude you are a mess. You are always hurt.
Your always arguing with your coaches.
You are first-round, pick, they gave up on you immediately.
They traded you to us for a late.
Third round pick, my guess is the The thought went something
like this. Let's get him into an offseason
and our strength, and conditioning protocol.
Let's have because the chiefs with Chiefs, have a really good
strength and conditioning team. They've worked through like
they, and they do this with McKinnon, right?
They keep McKinnon on Ice until it's time to use them.
And I think they're just like anything we get out of Tony.
This year is a bonus at this point.
I think, after he got hurt in that Jaguars game, they're like,
we cannot count on this guy. We can't game plan around and we
can't function like Going to be here.
So let's just get to the offseason and deal with it.
Then that that is my rose-colored.
Glasses view on why they chose to use and that way could I
could be totally fanfiction. But that is that is my guess.
I think it's plausible. I think that the fact that he
ran five routes in the Super Bowl, undermines the argument a
bit. I agree.
Also three routes in the AFC
Championship Game. Does not help the cause it
really doesn't. I think that, but you Targets on
three Routes provide more Targets in sky in that game.
Yeah, I think with the Chiefs maybe you're doing is they're
like we're going like sub package, like we're going to
have guys like maybe, maybe. None of these guys is going to
do anything for us like over the course of an entire season or,
of course of entire game. We're not going to be like, but
they're, they're going to like do we're going to have plays for
all these guys like so that when they're what they did, after
Heartland got hurt, it was like, they'd have that they'd have the
Marcus Kemp stuff. They'd have the Jody Fortson
stuff. They would beat they'd be like
they the Chiefs would routinely be playing nine tight ends and
wide receivers in the game. Which like most most people cap
out at like seven. Like, it was exactly.
Yeah. And this is, Andy Reid's deal,
right? This is like, this is all he
wants to do is come up. Like, oh, Andy like, I'm sorry.
You have to stay at another two hours tonight and come up with
ways for Rishi rice now. He's like guys, we can keep
doing it, so I would be surprised.
Personally, if we saw carries Tony.
Like if he was if he ran like 85 to 90% of the routes this year,
I'd kind of be shocked. Like I'd be true.
It probably has the worst downside case of any player
outside of injury going in the top 100 picks right where he
just straight up is healthy all season and just does not get
used. Yeah, I mean, 50 to 60 percent
would be like a big boost and still kind of a disaster at this
rate. I mean, that's co-pending
depending on touch Variance, right?
Like he could totally get there with touchdown variants but it
but that's like very slim Antonio Brown in that year with
Brady. I think he had about a 70% route
rate so if Tony was in that type of role, then I'm going to look
real silly, because he'll Crush in that type of role.
But I do think like that's what you're like, praying that he's
kind of Antonio Brown level usage in like his last Good Year
with the yeah. Easy easy game, right?
And the thing is, I I mean, we do the the big thing is that,
you know, say what you want, about Juju maybe he's dust.
He was, he had a pretty big Stranglehold over the slot role
last year, right? I don't have the route numbers.
He's gone. Like it's I think it's going to
be him or sky going into the slot, right?
Like I guess maybe Richie James is an outside chance of winning
that job, but like I think it's kind of a two-man competition
and well, I'm leaving my money. I I don't think it's guy.
I think I think multiple guys are playing in the slot.
Yeah. Yeah, I think, I think likely
outcome. I think Pat's right.
I think it's like Tony Sky. Richie James freakin Cornell.
Powell back from the dead, like, literally or sheer ice will play
some in the slot to our imagine. Yeah.
That's something they've led the
league in 12 Personnel last year.
That's that's not doing that thing though.
Is that Noah gray is going to play 60 percent of their snaps
That's what he's home. He's been a tough click.
Yeah. It's like, I better have my
home's. I really better have my homes
because I'm like, I don't know. I mean this, this is like we
like I've often been like, I was like, screw it.
I'm just drafting the guy I think super talented and Tony
fits that bill. But like how does he, how does
he play? Mikey, it's a lot to pay for a
guy with like, are we sure he's playing like, he, he had he
combined 48 routes in the last two games we saw.
That's a major problem. I'm just, I'm just living.
I'm just living a little. I'm just living a little, you
know, I don't care. I don't care because the the the
theoretical upside the rose-colored glasses and plays,
he plays you know of huge majority of the passing Downs.
Is you have a guy who can easily score, 280 half, PPR points or
whatever, who runs more routes could areas Tony or Jameson
Williams. Tony collectively on the season.
I'm I'm I'm Tony, I'm feeling, I'm feeling bearish, I'm feeling
bearish on Jameson Williams. I'm feeling pretty pretty
bearish. It's probably tell me, but it's
probably Tony, but it's still close like these routers use
round. Numbers are so bad and I was
thinking I'm up. I was like this is worse than I
remembered. No, man.
Like that. Five route.
The five routes in the Super Bowl is the targets program.
Yeah. And it's like the targets for
about Ron stuff. Yeah sure.
He got sixth. Get some 12 routes like good
job, I guess. But it's 12 routes, like, I
don't know. That is the thing to like, when
targets per out, Ron is. I love it.
It's a great stat, but like if you get a screen route, if you
get like a one exacttarget that's designed to go to you,
it's going to spike your targets per hour on a small sample.
So and Tony is that guy like he is the dude you bring on to get
him the ball. He probably didn't know.
Yeah, he didn't know the whole Playbook, so they're like, hey,
we have like displays for you. When you're out there, you're
the, you know, primary target on half the plays that you're out
there. So like, it's so biased by that
that I think, I think he's a good talent but like people
citing these yard for out on targets per hour on.
Like, they're not gonna scale. They're not good.
They're not going to skill. Yeah they might scale like
someone but that sounds like most things were.
Yeah, he'll still still drop a lot but yeah but yeah we got a
comment that he's so unique is he can bury you in both
directions which is like giant do not want One Tony, Tony could
bury me if I'm, but I do plan to be underweight on Tony.
I just don't want to be like. I'd like to be like 5% Tony.
That's that's like that. Yeah.
And to be fair, The Wider side, like you only have 5% moans No,
I just am not going to like reach for Tony because Mahomes
is so easy to stack. I want to be overweight.
I think I've gotten to the point where I think I do actually be
overweight. These top three quarterbacks.
I think I'm okay. I can already stare into a
crystal ball and see my future of why I don't win a million
dollars. Because I do Kelsey Mahomes
about twice as frequent as I do digs and Alan and it's week 17
and it's not snowing in New England and Stefon Diggs has 29
and half CPR point. It's Josh Allen runs for two
touchdowns and Kelsey and Mahomes already have the
division wrapped up. So they just spend the whole
game. Handing off to Isaiah Pacheco
and ring screens for Jody Fortson.
And I just, I have nothing left. Yeah I do I think.
Yeah you want to be mixing up but like in the big board I was
way under weight the top three guys but that's Anthony
Richardson was free to begin that and then he when he likes
spiked up he was still going like the 12th round and Lamar
Jackson was going like the fourth fifth, so there was
multiple ways to get, you know, really strong quarterback
production potentially for a way cheaper and I don't like Mars
like an early third round pick now.
There's just not obviously Richardson super expensive
compared to where it was. So I'm like, am I just going to
be out on these Elite quarterbacks?
We've had incredible Advance rates recently and I know the
cost is a lot higher, but I don't know.
I I think I want to be overweight slightly at least.
That is one of my most interesting things.
Like if I could stare into a crystal ball is like, what is
the increased cost of the expensive, quarterbacks due to
their Advanced rates? Because this time last year you
could take Mom's in the fifth fucking round.
Like I don't Get these guys in the fifth threat looks like, my
cabins are Patrick Mahomes. Like, literally, I do not have
to think. I, I don't have to process that
at all. I know exactly what my Evans was
a second-round pick, but I think you're saying, yeah, this year
is a bit. Yeah.
I don't even know. Yeah.
So like so if you look, yeah, if you look at the math of like and
there's different versions of this but Hayden doesn't get one
with like better and best of all points.
I think. If you look at that and say the
quarterbacks this year separate in the same way that they did
last year, I think they're fairly priced or maybe even
likes very slightly. Underpriced where they are now.
But I think you do have to consider that like last year's
sort of middle class of quarterbacks, were way worse
than they've been in Prior years from a points per game
standpoint. Like, I looked at something
where, you know, Gino was the quarterback nine last year at
like 18 points per game. You look at the last five years,
every other quarterback 9 was like up at 20, so it's just,
it's a small difference, right? It doesn't stand up to us as
massive, but if some other quarterbacks just play a little
bit better than Mahomes hurts and Alan don't even have to play
worse for them to be less valuable if that makes sense.
So, I don't know. I pad I'm kind of like coming
around sun a little bit. I don't think I want to be
overweight them but like I am definitely not hard.
Fading them in the way I was in early.
Drafts this. You know, especially if their
prices stick and I think they are pretty sticky.
At this point, I've have seen them in the puppy, fall a little
bit too, like the early, third. So that's making me wonder if
maybe they'll fall a little bit but I don't know.
I mean, I guess I'm not super upset.
If my early best Ball Mania, drafts are a little bit weighted
toward Elite quarterback and then if they fall like then it
becomes way easier. Then I'm overweight Elite
quarterback in my portfolio like great.
It's been it's been quite good recently.
So yeah I don't think it's like a terrible like and like we said
there's their floor is like mid thurso like you maybe maybe.
Worse case scenario, you're losing a little ADP value, but I
kind of like doubt they drop that far.
So, yeah, I'm okay to like, kind of catch the value there.
So let's, let's talk Madison. He shows up at the top Riser
here, this one's a little weird to me because there hasn't been
any hard news on cook, but there's been some like rumors
about cook being a post June 1st cop.
It's just a continuation of the rumors and how gross the range
is. It's not any specific thing.
It's like I fell victim of this where I'm like, I told you want
a Williams of the Um ACL Zach charbonnet.
You know, it just like Madison is like, yeah, he could be a
starting running back or you have like a nut handcuffed like
Madison every year for the last five years has had, at least,
like, three games of 25 or more PPR points just because Coco
miss a couple games. You know?
It's so it's it's like, it's like it's kind of like clicking
Pollard there. You know, that that's sort of
what it feels like or what Pollard used to be.
Yeah, well you also medicine at this price.
I've actually had a hard time in like, Pat Foreman's been
tweeting about Madison like, for like months ago, it feels like
like just like, guys, what are we doing?
This dude's probably starting running back.
Like let's draft them and he's been right?
But I just I've had a hard time with Madison just because I
don't think Madison's like that good.
I don't think he's bad but he's kind of like a guy who like like
are they seriously? I mean maybe the money says yes
that they are just like we're going to caught cold franchise
tagged in Him? Didn't?
I thought they gave him a deal? No.
They franchise tag him, right? That is Madison.
I think they gave him a deal. No, but it's good.
It's like they paid him. He got the fourth.
Most guarantee Ronnie of of any running back.
Yeah, so just behind a deal. Yeah, just pain Jamal Williams
Montgomery. Mi sanderso Madison, got money.
That was the case Edmund were you got?
Yeah, that's fair but he got more than like the most stirred
Singletary. Wilson McKinnon like right?
You look at his contract, like Minnesota.
Clearly does value him with this type of guaranteed money, right?
Whether that translates to him being and they never and I mean,
never give the ball to their third running back, right?
Does not matter who it is. They did one year when Mike
Boone, was there? Like one game, like bun got in,
but can a, and Wang you Duane McBride.
Like these guys are like, if Dalvin cook is not out there,
Madison is getting 19 carries for caches and every goal line
carry. Yeah, probably.
It's just It is. It's tough because we only have
one year with this coaching staff.
Yeah. So it's tough to say, like he'll
get used but he was used last year, like, in the institutional
memory. I don't know if it works like
that, whatever Mike kind of does to me.
It kind of does to me, like, I kind of, I kind of think it
worked that way until they give me a reason to believe,
otherwise, to be honest. Yeah, I've got I've come around
on Madison. I've but I'd like, yeah, I don't
think he's that guy. I don't like this price that
much. Yeah, it feels.
Anytime I, anytime he's like available past ATP, though, I'm
like, I should, I should do this.
I should get exposure. Yeah, I was taking them a lot.
I think at this price. Now, I don't know.
Like, what are the actually the odds that Cook gets cut at this
point? Like the postseason one?
Think you think they're high. So this is where I don't
understand something, I don't get it either.
The post June one thing like you can designate guys post June 1
Cuts before June 1st, like that's what happened to Zeke.
Like he was designated a post you Like people are saying
they're just gonna wait till June 1st and I think I caught
like they could designate cook. A post Jude first cut now, like
that's not unless I'm wrong about that.
I'm pretty sure I'm right about here.
So we're not, you are not wrong. So that's why I'm just like
people are kind of I think misunderstanding that so it's
like what is going to cause cook to get cut from here until June
1st? Like I do maybe you won't get
so. So apparently, Fowler this is a
better world. Had this that that Fowler said
he's been told that the Vikings want Quote do right by Dalvin
cook and want him to go to a place where he can be happy
where he can play and be happy. So what I think they might be
doing is just like hanging on there.
Like we don't have to cut them until after June 1st.
Anyway, let's see if starter goes down somewhere.
Then we can trade cook there. That's great for us.
That's great for him sharing and we can all kind of be happy and
move on where I don't know, maybe they maybe worst case
scenario in their minds. They would just keep cooking
play him but I think If anyone gets hurt and is interested in
cook like he's the Vikings are jumping at that.
That's the thing. Right?
Is that I think a trade is more likely than like they don't have
an incentive to just outright caught him unless they're just
cheap and don't want to physically hand him the cash.
Like I don't think cap wise, they really are incentivized to
do that anymore. So yeah I guess it's a question
is does a trade materialize for him?
I guess I see some potential Landing spots but I would
handicapped odds of him being on the Vikings at I think.
FDR called close to 50/50. I don't know if you guys
disagree so less stable but I think it's a good point that he
probably won't get caught, but I would say probably last just
because, you know, guys get hurt in training camp.
Yeah. So if you think it's less than
I'm kind of surprised that you're not in on Madison at
that. Like, if you think, well, that's
how I feel kind of regret, I feel like I kind of missed the
boat, and I don't want to like, chase them up, but I do feel
like I was wrong on Madison and it should have had more, and I
do want to mix him in now, even at this price, Because I am
underweight, and I'm like, that looks pretty bad.
So let me let me make sure I'm am mixing them in even though
the price has gone up a bit that makes sense.
Another guy want to talk about with you guys is Christian
Watson. I don't think you touched on a
lot so far this offseason he's up two spots to 42 overall going
behind guys. Like Amari Cooper.
But now head of guys like DeAndre Hopkins Drake London, DJ
more. I think he's passed.
So There's like a micro Tony narrative with Watson, I think
where the target / outrun yards per hour on stuff is really
high. He was not running all the
routes, obviously, what was running more than Tony was, but
there's a little bit of that narrative with him.
So, yeah, curious Davis in the stored in love offense.
How have you been treating Christian Watson?
So, like, on one hand, it both feels insane, right?
It just like like, objectively feels insane for a guy who
basically son. Ram, touchdown.
That's 48 games to go this high. But then to me I find myself
clicking him a lot because I look at the guys around him one,
it's like stack partners for these guys are kind of hard.
So like Amari Cooper I don't love paying that price on
DeShaun Watson Calvin Ridley, fine like obviously question
marks there, don't love paying that price tag on on Trevor
Lawrence and then DJ more I'm like completely out on at this
price. I just I'm not going to Then eat
them at wide receiver. 20 don't really love Mike Williams or
Keenan Allen don't really like you under Hopkins because of the
stack partner don't really like Drake London because of the
stack partner don't really like Terry McLaren because of the
stack partner don't you know and it literally goes on down to
Michael. Pittman at wide receiver 28.
Before I find a stack partner that I like and so I'm looking
at that range. I'm like yeah shit.
I'm just going to take Christian Watson because Jordan loves
quarterback. 21 feels like a totally appropriate price that
can be my second quarterback. I can take Romeo Dallaire.
Jobs for a double stack in like the 15th round easy peasy.
So it's like I don't even love Christian Watson but just for
structural reasons, it just makes a lot of sense is really
what it comes down to. That's fair Pat, what are you?
What do you think about Watson? I'm in the same boat and when I
get to, you know what I'm thinking about who I'm taking
and like it's pretty easy for me to imagine Christian Watson
having a really big week in the playoffs, you know that's like
his archetype and so it's like it's a tiebreaker sort of thing.
I am kind of into him. He's he's interesting because he
like really over performed his volume compared to the first
retarget that he had last year as well.
Which has been something that is really good.
If you get if you're like a number one wide receiver, you
want to do that because you never going to like the first
three targets alone aren't going to get you to an elite status.
You need to be more efficient than that.
You need to earn additional targets and When you're not the
first read, that's like kind of what a super star wide receiver
can do but it also makes it a like a little less like a little
more concerning that he's like kind of get this
flash-in-the-pan thing going on where like he wasn't actually
like a huge part of the offense. He wasn't getting a ton of first
retards wasn't getting a ton of routes so like which which is he
is he is star. Who can overperform volume or is
he a guy who got really hot? And now his quarterbacks gotten
way worse. So let's just Aaron Rodgers
forcing them to design targets for a Randall Cobb and Allen
Lazard. Well that might be to.
Yeah. Maybe his routes are going to
spike way up now, the Rogers gone so I see your point.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I've like he's one of these guys were like it
is kind of Tony is sort of a good comparison except I'm more
in on Watson. Like I don't think he's a smash
where he's going, but the upside makes him very viable where he's
going and there's lots of other red flags in this area.
One guy kind of go to bat for a little bit is Tara McLaren.
In where? Maybe not over like Watson but I
just think in general like he's it's like again you don't know.
You don't need to know who the quarterback.
He said, t, he has two outs, two decent quarterback play.
And I think he could be someone that we're like, looking back on
like why aren't we taking more of him with, you know, kind of a
clear like down. Downfield ability.
And you know, shown the ability of our many years to earn
targets and is an old. Yeah I like McCall.
I mean I think McLaren you just pencil them in for 1,100 yards
and 16 touchdowns and Like if he doesn't get injured like it's
hard to see how he doesn't get that in my opinion, but it
doesn't. There's I think there's a little
bit of like boring player who's been good for a while that were
just a little bit bored of thing going on with McLaren and even
Keenan Allen, you can make that 18 announced another guy like
to. Yeah, I like yeah that was the
the two names of pushback on Davis's last where I like Keenan
Allen. I like McLaren.
If a tp'ed made me how many games and Keenan Allen's career
has he gotten to 20 half PPR points?
Honestly I think they'll I think Law.
I think his weekly upsides a little underrated.
I don't have that on hand Davis, but I think like he's had plenty
of games where he smashes and II sleep.
I sleep like a fucking baby at night knowing that I had no
keeping an eye on Keenan. Allen key.
There will be a lot of reasons why I don't win best Ball Mania
for but not having Keenan. Allen is not.
So if I would check out Kyle, had a tweet thread or tweet
about Keenan, Allen Kyle, DeVore.
Check recently. And I'm, I don't have it on hand
but he was pacing for like a legit wide receiver one season
last year when he was healthy like he was straight up just I
mean. Yeah, you can say that injury
concerns saying, whatever. Like it's not easy, it was
bawling when he was 31 and now and now they're not going to
have the dinkin dunk, 4.8 ypa, offense, it just I get it.
I do, I'm not saying you shouldn't take you now and I'm
not saying people who are over the wait, like two really easy.
Click. That turn you take her actually.
I think the smart thing is and I bet this will be reflected in a
teepee at some point is you actually take Herbert first and
then you get your choice if you're if you got to have a turn
pick their then you get your choice out of Keenan or Mike
instead of leaving your dickhead opponents, the option of taking
Herbert after you take Keenan, because let me tell you, the are
nothing. Nothing worse than taking
Keenan. And then, having Herbert's night
from you, it's fine. You can do the, you can do the
Broncos. Thing on the other side, even if
you don't go Russ you just saw that.
Just a doctor gave up. Yeah.
And also, but I don't want to be naked Herbert, what am I getting
Quinton Johnson Tempest? But ahead of the actually, kind
of like quick Point Johnson, what odds?
Can I like you're gonna be okay, what odds can I get on quittin,
Johnston more fantasy points, weeks, nine through 17, then
Keenan Allen. Oh man, I would bet that I'd bet
that with you, that's not. Well, you mean out, okay.
We might give me, give me give me a fairy.
Give me a, like, someone someone give me a number and I'll let
you know if I think it's better. Or not.
I would give, I don't know three-to-one odds, I was why I
was thinking 421, felt bad apple.
Florida one because Kenan Kenan is the wide receiver 24 in qjs,
the wide receiver 43, I think. Yeah, but you didn't say over
the season, you're getting the rookie thing.
You're getting the rookie coming on, let me just say that.
If, if you just gonna have to four weeks nine through 17, the
Gap would be way less and already pays fair.
Fair fair. Come on, Keenan.
Allen is just so much better than coincidence, Quinton
Johnson. I'm not.
I see you. Do you guys realize the Keenan
Allen had two separate. 19 Target weeks in 2020.
That's what that's what I'm saying is like.
He he's, I don't know if like, this is like cocky about Jamison
Crowder with Leone. It's like, I know what it's
like. I know what he's saying is,
right? But I just do not care.
Like, you can't make me kick. Like, it is my right as an
American to not care about. Get, are you at that?
Let's talk, let's see. Who's on here.
That we haven't talked about, like, Evan, licen McKinnon
McKinnon rice, we've talked about those guys law.
I mean, that's true. Yeah, is this story a little
obvious? That's just the Cincinnati
thing. Also the mcentee, like I think
it's a little bit of the McKinnon news is still not fully
baked in. Maybe let's talk with kid in.
Like, what? What is his like settling ATP.
He's at 1:30 right now still behind, guys, like Gibson.
Elijah Mitchell Jamaal Williams Khalil Herbert Damien Harris.
He is not actually much more than this Kenny.
He is see ya. Yeah I was going to say like
maybe maybe 12, 12 spot, ten spots higher.
I would probably take him over Jamaal Williams.
Yeah we do. I'll take him over Gibson and
Herbert I wouldn't take him over Eli Mitchell.
I wouldn't take him over Damien Harris it seems like his rise
has got to stop pretty soon and and it's sort of done with like
the implicit understanding that your knowing that like, this
guy's not playing the first two months of the Season.
Really, you know, like, like we all sort of acknowledge that And
they still, they still might be one of these teams that gives
Igor, Dalvin, cook or Leonard fournette or whoever, you know,
right? Yeah.
And the thing is with him, that's interesting.
Is like, I think from a weekly seal individual, weekly ceiling
standpoint, the quarterback running backs tax.
I don't really like, but with Mahomes in the Kenan I kind of
liked that a lot like he had some huge receiving games last
year in my home Spike week, so the McKinnon six catches 80
yards and two touchdowns game, I think still exists.
So he's a pretty interesting. NG stack partner with my homes
from that standpoint but yeah I don't think he should rise to
much more than this. I don't think so either.
I'm actually behind ATP now in my ranks not a ton but yeah, got
it. All right, I'll give you guys
the floor. Any Other Name, any other names
of guys you want to either make the case for hear or say they're
way too high. Otherwise let's move on to the
father's I don't really like Bateman but I get it.
It. I like, I do like Bayman but you
ottoman, you want to Mentor the auction League.
I don't have never mind differently.
I think I have any candy I'm trying to sell.
Let's let's, uh, followers here again.
We say on the show we're Market Movers, Jonathan Taylor is down
again. After I fought at him, even
though I've taken him in like 30% of my bbm team so far, don't
ask you actually are doing what they What touts always been
accused of here. Looks opposite of pumping.
What's the opposite of that? I'm doing that.
I'm fun scooping Taylor because again, week 17 correlation I
invented the concept I won't go into that too much detail, but
the Raiders are playing the Colts.
The Raiders are playing the Colts in week 17.
So you take Devante take Taylor, but Yeah, not a lot of names
here that like kind of makes sense, I guess Allen is the
interesting one we should talk about.
We did kind of say last show if any of the quarterback atp's
we're going to fall Alan is the one that makes sense with the
stack partners with a week 17 stuff, he is falling a little
bit again, just one spot, but it is a pretty big as a percentage
of his ATP. What do we think?
Does that? Like dude can digs drafters
expect to get Alan in the third round?
Or is that just a fantasy? What do we think is?
Alan is Alan's fault. All going to continue Davis.
What are your thoughts? Um, yeah, I mean I think I think
we'll probably see because the initial reaction of everyone
I've talked to who's like I haven't done any drafts, they
open up Underdog. They go hop into a puppy they go
hop in a best while. Mainly they cannot believe the
quarterback ATP. Right.
That you just what? Universally that is the
response. But as we outlined on last
week's, show for, like, literally at we'd like went
through the entire exercise, it is lit.
Like Mahomes is not going to fall the, I actually.
Okay, this is the one way he could fall.
The one way he could fall, would be if people just are whatever
Travis Kelce, he's 34 like we're just going to stop Drafting and
we're taking all these other guys instead of them and if
Kelsey becomes like the 10th pick, that's a little bit too
early to take Mahomes, so then you could see the Mahomes
drafter be like, try and play. ADP game, and just try and get
him in the third round or whatever.
Hurts. No way Hertz is just he's
always, he's almost like cemented into the spot where
he's going, due to the two pressures of AJ, Brown and
Nevada, Smith on the other side of him, but Alan doesn't have
that same pressure because I think you can easily tell
yourself as like I don't need to get Alan with digs or just those
atp's. Don't perfectly line up you know
the way the calcium homes ATP. If you pulled up a big board of
ATP right now, they literally perfectly line up.
So yeah, I think, I think Alan will continue to fall.
I think Taylor will probably fall a little bit more the name
on this list. That doesn't make sense to me as
a follower is Michael Meyer. Because every day I wake up and
don't Kincaid is like another three spots higher in the ATP
refresh. Like it's insane.
I think Knox is actually becoming a value now.
I agree. He's on the folders here on Alan
thing, like I do wonder the one thing that could make the elite.
X fall a bit is if Borough Falls a bit to the end of the fourth
because I did have a puppy where I went Jamar tasty Higgins and I
was like, I'm going for it. I'm going to, I'm going to get
40 and I got burrow and to get like that double stack with a
fourth-round pick is is pretty fun and I think it's like that
becomes an option even if you're not double stacking, if you just
go chase or Higgins and you get your able to get burrow in the
fourth then I think it becomes like less of a priority to like
grab and unstacked Allen or you know unstack Mahomes and figure
that out later. You're like I can actually stack
this up with the burrow side so that that would be that would be
kind of one way because holding only other hand though, like the
Josh Allen thing like Burrell has been going in kind of this,
no man's land. I was like who is drafting
burrow? Stacked ever.
The key must just be going on stacked in like every draft so
that makes it harder for me to see Alan falling all the way
back to digs in the third round because I think someone at the
303's just like fuck it all. I'll see ya that I think that
that's a thing. Where the solo Josh Allen is a
lot more appealing than you know the on SEC Joe barroso I agree
with Davis's case that like I think you can make an argument
for why Alan falls to the mid third.
I don't think that's like the The most likely I think it's I
think it's possible though. Whereas, with Mahomes, I don't
know the home again with the week 17 stuff.
I think, you know, Jamar Chase Mahomes starts will be pretty
popular, you know, T Higgins. My home starts at the two, three
turn will also be pretty popular.
That I have a hard time seeing my home slide all the way.
So yeah. Well we'll see though, the other
thing that's maybe slightly interesting here, Dalvin cook.
I guess we do Have to talk about a tan at sort of the inverse of
the mass and stuff. They were just talking through
DJ more is sliding a little and I think I'd attribute this to
just some probably honestly Leone's tweet was a big part of
this drop Leone tweeted out that DJ more is just way behind.
I think basically this case was to paraphrase, even if you put
in a really optimistic past projection, for the Bears, even
if you really sort of tweak up, DJ Moore's, individual
Efficiency. This ATP just isn't justified by
the projection and by their ETR ranking.
So I think it's fair, I think more is really being pulled out
by just the fact that Justin Fields drafter wants to stack
fields and more and I think is fair EDP is probably around
around and a half cheaper Davis, I don't Davis already mentioned,
DJ more Pat. Do you agree with Leone?
That more is overvalued costs. Yeah, I had more as kind of a in
early fifth type of value when I was tearing everything out in my
ranks and but then I ended up having him ranked, like, pretty
close to ADP, because that General range is so gross as we
kind of outlined earlier. Like, there's no one that really
jumps out. And and then I was like, well, I
can also get the stack here with Fields.
And if more beats expectations, I think he probably Crushes,
expectations. And a lot of those outcomes, you
know, because like he could, he could have a huge Target share
and Fields. Takes a step forward as a
pastor, and this is like, kind of year, one of fields, having a
coaching staff, who believes in him.
So, I guess first year in the entire in the NFL, where that's
the case. So, I do think there's some
really high end ceiling outcomes that you get with more.
And it's a Bad Bet on Talent play, which I like he's what
cheaper than he was last year. When He had horrific quarterback
play. So like a number of ways that I
think I can. I can see it hitting on the
other hand. Like the math Leone was just
like the math just straight up like doesn't work.
Davis is out righteous out. Like I'm like I'm sitting alone
here on DJ more Island so they do they believe in him.
I think they believe in him. Yeah because they just trade it
away. The number one overall pick like
you I mean they could have traded fields and dragon started
over. Like there.
Is that the market? I bet the market was way more
hot for the number one pick than for Justin Fields.
Sure, I would bet I would bet my bottom dollar, the, the pet
trade package was better, and but maybe there are two Fields
doesn't work out. No, you're getting fired.
So, they know I think you can sell it to the guys upstairs and
say a field sucks. You know, it's coming Kaleb
Williams. Strike May well.
Alright, if you're if you're the third worst team in the NFL it's
get there, cleaning house. I got extra, they got extra ammo
to trade and the Arizona. Cardinals might be one of those
first two picks and they have Kyla Murray in the Caribbean
with all wrong with us. No Cardinals.
Have the Cardinals, have their pick and the Texans pick.
That's what I'm thinking. They have an extra pick.
Okay, so there's II agree with your.
So I think Leone's micro analysis is correct that.
If you're doing projections, there's no way to make it work.
I also agree with your macro analysis.
That the thing that you could just plug it in the projections
and make it work is oh Justin Fields is actually good, right?
Like if you S the actually good button inside the spreadsheet.
You do works a lot better. I'm ambivalent on is Justin
Fields actually good though. You know like I think he's I
think he's an insanely talented rusher but the sack rate is like
because I think not only do you learn from a sack rate that a
guy makes a lot of negative plays but it's also like just
you know an inability to see the field like not not understanding
what's unfolding in front of him properly and that What would be
bad for DJ more? Yeah.
And I think like, even and I probably the case that Leone
makes to is that even if pass attempts arise a bunch like this
Bears team, like, people talk about how little the Falcons
passed last year. The Bears were, like a full two
and a half past tense for game less than the Falcon.
Like they were truly like historically low in terms of
past times per game. Like you, I don't know.
You have to say that Fields takes less sacks scrambles less
there more, you know, philosophically.
Inclined to throw the ball. Instead of like there's a lot of
levers that have to go and Fields way for Moore's routes,
and is receptions and everything to make sense by the math.
So I don't know, I'm totally open to like, Fields being a lot
better than it was last year, but like it's not just being
like a little bit better. It's like completely changing
how they ran the offense like entirely.
Well I also think you do at least with more have the thing
of like he's been stuck in the Panther, on the Anthers with,
just, like horrible, horrible quarterback play about as bad as
like a receiver could have over, you know, a three-year stretch.
And the coaching has also not been great either.
So if you have, you do have, I think a bit of upside with more
The talent being unlocked by a quarterback who wasn't horrible
and there, you know, so you can kind of so that's why it is
appealing to me because not just like if Fields as good as I'm
not taking much Darnell Mooney, you know what I mean?
Like it's me it's the bet on Talent with DJ more and then you
know you get the Justin Fields is actually good button clicked
and all the sudden the math makes some sense.
It still doesn't make a ton of sense though.
Like my thing is I'm hoping he falls.
Yep. In the projections.
Do there. Our work.
He's got. And and if you can to me, if I
can get him in the fifth round, I'm in again.
I think I'm out for now in the fourth round.
I think, I think I'm gonna take other, guys.
I think he's going to swing all the way around like DJ more, is
the epitome of like the guy who fantasy sickos on Twitter, who
are Drafting and may like, who casual drafters are like fuck DJ
more. Fuck that guy.
He's been a useless to me the past couple you like hundred
percent he's gonna he's gonna fall.
So like I just don't See that, that's why.
I'm like I'm gonna be able to get these Stacks cheaper later
if for some reason he doesn't fall, I'll re correct and get
some of them at this price for the ceiling but like I've been
full fading just because like I'm I'm convinced he's gonna
fall and maybe I'm maybe I'm wrong about that.
We'll see. But I have strong conviction
that other funny one dimension here.
Yeah Bryce young falling just because he looked really small
and a video is a pretty funny ATP move in our know if you guys
saw that video On Twitter, but you couldn't, you can see him
behind his offensive lineman. I've talked about this before
but I like, I like these rookie quarterbacks price young and see
Jace crowd there. There Pat sketches are super
cheap, the teams are super gross, I get it.
If one of these guys is just really good as a rookie, and I
know that historically rookie quarterbacks, it's not the best
bet, but the prices are so cheap.
We you know, then I felt clearly love these guys as prospects, I
want to mix them in, I sort of view them.
Along the lines of sort of like Stafford in that group of late,
quarterbacks that have some upside.
I think I like Stafford a little bit better but I do want some of
these guys. You guys have thoughts on
brushing at this price. I like both of them the same as
you do. I mean I think there's probably
maybe like a little more upside with young because I think they
could go like they could lean into the past a little bit more
where I think that Shanahan style system.
They're going to play a pretty conservatively throughout
Stroud's entire rookie year. But then Stroud you actually do
have the fact that, you know, he's bigger and could run a
little bit more. You don't really run it down a
college, that's the big debate but he could, so yeah.
And he's fun to stack up. Man, I mean you got to work with
young, you got to do Mingo and then like I hate taking DJ shark
over Nico Collins even if I am setting up a young thing, you
can go Niko Collins and tank Del as is a backless easiest route
stack and it's so fun. I like the tight end.
I know you guys hate. You press.
Probably hate them but I like the Hayden.
Hearst Bryce young stack or so weird.
Enjoy your. 45% route, right dude.
Who come on guys? They pay them.
Like, they paid him enough. Guaranteed who the fuck?
Come on? He's gonna have the best day.
Fake traffic drafted. Tight ends like repeatedly and
they include in Indianapolis Mo, Alan Cox, Kyle and granson.
Oh no sorry. I mean I'll do you do retire
this Ross who on this roster now is gonna Plane overhead, nursed,
literally, whoever any traffic going to pull up our Lads and
whoever, whatever name I see is who I needed to come on.
I'm his there's, we play anybody.
You might not like it. But Hayden Harris is gonna have
the same role he had last year on The Bangles which was a good
roll. No, you will not?
Yeah, he is dude. Come now, we will not.
That's not how this team is operating.
This is coaching staff thing, man.
Ian Thomas Tommy, tremble. Tommy tremble.
Tommy trembles running like 35% the routes because he's out
there blocking That's how they wrote.
That's how they treat the tight end position.
That's a philosophical thing. He's picked two hundred.
He's the starting tonight and get out of here, enjoy it.
You're gonna have a great time 55% Max and my take, am I taking
him like solo know, but like these Carolina Panthers wide
receivers? Are you taking with Adam feel
and what could go wrong? Not taking with them?
Take it with mango, first of all.
Okay, who got the most guaranteed money, this offseason
at tight end. Taste it Hayden nursed, let's
talk to us tomorrow. You still take some notes in, it
knows a nurse. I think there's a bill makes 15
million dollars a year in terms of guaranteed money receives
this awesome in this so bad. Sorry.
Taste them only makes ten million dollars, my bad, my bad,
he does show up here as a Faller.
What are the what are the people doing here?
You got to make. Yesterday.
So, what are we doing? Williams, the tight end six last
year. What's the difference, dude?
I'm in, I'm still in. What, what, what is the, what is
the logic for literally, seeing taysom, break, the game multiple
times last season? Is it just, I guess people are
scared that Jamal Williams Jamaal Williams spells the end
for taysom at the goal line, like the whole argument against
drafting taste and last year when he was cheap was oh you
know, Sean Payton's, not the coach anymore.
So exactly this new coach Coaching step.
No, dude it's the same. You want to talk about fucking
institutional memory? The Saints are the most
institutional memory ask team in the league, like Taste of on
that roster. He wears number seven, dude.
What do you got? What do you want him to do?
Like he's gonna be taysom. Yeah, and probably helps the
Camaro's going to get suspended for a huge chunk of the Season.
Yeah. Yeah. 100% is going to have a
goal on package. He's 100% going to have a goal
line package. What?
Derek Carr, so good. You can't take Derek Carr off
the I feel like no. Yeah Derek are.
These are cars Andy Dalton like it's the same thing she's gonna
have like he'll he'll mix in like one or two deep touchdowns
for your to like he does that every year you know it's you're
not gonna be able to predict it. Would you ever start him in a
managed League know, but in and best of all it's just I think
what he's actually down on is like the Foster Monroe signing
which is just a complete misunderstanding of its little
wrinkle is. He's not like he does not
compete with Foster. 04 Snappy isn't a tight end.
Yeah. Isn't it sad that he's mad?
I think a great way for people to think about him would be, he
is Dexter McCluster, but 240 pounds, that would be, I think
that would be a great way for people to think about taysom
Hill is canaries. Tony on the Saints, he just has
to score like six touchdowns. You want to talk about, you want
to talk about a target for Route?
Run King, taste, the mill. Yeah so funny, the not like that
he's listed as a tight end, he had 13 and six targets the past
two years. Like I think he has more pass
attempts than then targets, probably at least close to it.
Like I never understood this tight end listing but I love it.
I'm going to keep drafting them. It makes no sense.
I mean, imagine if like, Coral Patterson was listed as a tight
end, I draft him in the left. That's sort of similar.
I think the Bijan thing makes it tougher but that's like, he's
like a Weapon is not a yeah. Yeah, it's done.
It really shouldn't be listed as a tight end.
He really, he really should. Like, I mean, I understand why
they listed him there last year, but he should be listed as a
running back. Yeah, he's a running back, he's
running back. Yeah, I mean, he should be
listed at, he's a court. Like he takes naps at
quarterback more than what it's I believe.
I believe the fantasy thing takes a wild cat running back.
I believe they're listed the way.
The teams list them, you know? Like The team send their stuff
into the NFL. I think that's how it works or
how the distinctions are the distinct.
The designations are done and I think the Saints list of it
tight end. Yeah.
And sorry CR not to pick on you, but saying that they replaced
haysom by signing tight ends. It's missing the point that
taste them is not a time. He's not at like Foster Monroe
and Joe and aunt, just a fundamental misunderstanding of
what taste them. So role is on this team, which
is he's not a tight end. He's not a running back, he's
not a wide receiver. He's not a quarterback.
He literally, He is probably the only guy in the NFL right now
that would, I would say you can actually give them the
designation of offensive weapon. That's what he is.
He's there to play about 15 snaps a game and to be used in
creative ways. Yeah, and I think to say like
that he liked his role to Snaps are gone because they brought in
Jamaal Williams and Kendra Miller.
Like, I think, like, you got to understand that Dennis Allen has
like his taste in plays like first, like those aren't
flippers are Head of whatever conceivable Place The Taste in
place. I mean, again to really drive
this point home for guy who is the offensive coordinator of the
Saints, is the same guy who's been offensive coordinator
forever. It's not, it's not, it's not
like Sean Payton left and they hired a brand new staff.
Everyone just moved up. One rung, Sean Payton left in,
everyone got a promotion, that's all.
It's not. It's not a case of Hill.
Take midseason, midseason trade, Russell Wilson's, not working
out, Sean, Payton trades. His seventh round pick for Taste
of milk. Who says, no.
It's pretty good. And the thing is, you don't
even, you don't have to make this case anymore because it's,
you don't need it. But like, the out of him
starting quarterback games at quarterback is still in.
It requires multiple injuries. Yes, but team, multiple
quarterbacks on, teens, get injured every year.
Like, it's not impossible that we get two weeks. 15 through 17
and taysom Hill, starting a game of quarterback, it straight up,
it's not likely, but that's that's in the range of outcomes
to. So it's just yeah, there's a lot
of possible, it is possible. Yeah, and if that happens like
you, you will need to have taste of milk.
Like you'll just need to have him if taysom Hill scores, 19
points and week 17, what do you think the odds are of him being
on the winning team? Like pretty fucking high?
Pretty high. Although, it depends a little
bit how now, but, I mean, he's such a late round pick.
I'll probably be decently owned in the final.
Yeah, this just by pure randomness.
I don't know why I'm still triggered triggered by the chat
here. But guys, like taysom Hill isn't
also is not taking Snaps at running.
He's not in a truck. I didn't ignore it.
Yeah.
And we're not ignoring on rookie and Jamaal Williams, you know,
whatever people people watch, Jamal Williams score, 15 1 yard,
touchdowns last season, and lost their minds like lost their like
Jamal Williams. Is that like this is Evan,
syllabus fault it, seven Silva's fault for making that bet on
Jamal Williams to lead the NFL and touchdowns and getting
everyone to sweat along with it like Jamaal Williams is fine.
He's a perfectly, cromie alert running back, but they're not,
they're not throwing out the taste of he'll plant because
Jamal Williams is on the roster. Exactly.
They have their little taste of he'll thing and they clearly
like doing it like the Andre Miller and Jim always are not
changing that if Camaro was was there for the full season but
like okay now I'd be a little bit more persuaded.
But yeah, by the way, I'm gonna sew a texted me last night
saying that the ship that got damn ship, Jason's Chasers have
ruined this Again, we gotta get Silvan the show and just show
him some of these like wide receiver atp's and just getting
to talk about it. See if we can get his camera
turned on first, all right, let's let's ride out talking
through some of the team stuff. Not huge movement here but again
look at the Double Stack average atp's.
I think again the thing that stands out to me is like these
quarterback. There's a lot of and the u.s.
quarterback situations that like David was mentioning you look at
the wide receivers sort of the fifth sixth round range.
Even fourth round It's just tough because yeah you take
Terry McLaren and you don't feel good about picking a
quarterback, you know, you take Chris Godwin, you don't feel
good about taking a quarterback and there's just a lot of those
teams, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Washington Atlanta, you Throne
of England and there if you want.
San Francisco is certainly in that mix of Uncertain
quarterback situation. So, yeah.
That's kind of my take away is that I want to not be so worried
about those teams and just stack them up without the quarterbacks
like that as mentioned. Because I think their prices are
probably like a little Pressed as a result of that.
But yeah, I do. I guess what I would say is like
for me, I these teams aren't all in the same bucket.
Like I think Tampa Bay is going to be a train wreck.
I don't think they have any interest in being good.
I think that if maybe Godwin or Evans, you know, could get
traded. That's like your best out for
them having a good season. I just think it's gonna be
really gross Davis. You can push back on this
because I'm slandering the hell out of bed.
ERM a field right now, but my like, when I look at Washington
D, then what they were last year, they were fucking shit.
A worse way. Worse Baker was so bad last year
at that, I honestly think would be disgusting, but the
Washington. There's two outs, two, good
quarterback play there and you don't have to predict it.
You just need the quote, good quarterback play for drafting
Datsun and McLaren. I like both San Francisco.
I mean we've got two and a half outside.
I don't think Donald counts as a full-out but like there's maybe
a little half extra bonus there. You can see cats.
All right. So then three outs to good
quarterback play. And I mean those guys, I mean if
you're getting any kind of discount because the
quarterbacks uncertain, like hell yeah.
But yeah, I'm kind of more like, which of these offenses do I
think can be pretty good. Even if I can't predict who the
quarterback is going to be in every single week, Yeah, I think
San Francisco's probably the best argument for that, where
the market still view. Like, look at the Super Bowl
odds, San Francisco, I think their fourth and Super Bowl ads
behind just the Eagles bills Chiefs right now.
So unless the markets wrong like they're gonna be good regardless
of who's playing quarterback. I mean I wouldn't say what that
much certainty, but I think they're very likely to be good
regardless of who's playing quarterback.
So you're going to want some of those pieces on San Co and yeah
maybe maybe just wait till I think we'll have more certainty
at some point on the quarterback situation you can wait before
you take your guesses at quarterback, there may be the
one exception that is like if Lance is named the starter and
he's like they have confidence in him throughout the whole
season he would shoot way up. So like maybe there's some
argument to getting some Lance now but I'm not really, I'm not.
Yeah. What do you think about that?
This is actually the the one time where I think Lance might
make sense. Now, look, I haven't been in on
Lance but if the 18th round price like there is a payoff.
Now it's still thin though for him to deliver on it but it
could but he could. What what?
Okay what would Lance is ATP be if tomorrow.
Brock Purdy says, I have an infection in my surgery.
I have to have another surgery to take care of it.
They got to do whatever they got to clean it out.
I'm not going to be back until 2024.
What is Lance's ATP? I still think like 120 like I
don't think he's gonna say. Can we need him?
Can we meet him to Anthony Richardson price or not?
I don't think we can't anymore. I think he's like capped it like
one like the Gino range honestly like I kind of don't see him
getting ahead of I'm not saying that's my personal ranking, I'm
saying like what I think the market would do and that's yeah
I think I think he would be treated somewhat similarly to
Fields last year but then ultimately go ahead of where
Fields went last year because the people just bet on the
rushing. So, Yeah, I don't think you
would go ahead of Richardson, but I think he would probably
end up in the 90 in the high 90s.
The thing is like, I feel like I almost have to tell a story
where like somehow Donald gets traded and Purdy's like arm
falls off because like, I think that darn old.
You get that happen. Then I think he's like going.
Where? Richardson's going.
Yeah, but I'm saying, Richardson's like 86 now.
So, like I don't yeah I agree. Lance would be like 99 or
something. Yeah, yeah but I'm saying if
only one of those things happen, I don't like Like I think you
need both those quarterbacks to get out of the way for people to
have confidence and Lance as a top, 100 pick.
I think people if her had confidence in him as a top 100
pick like two months ago for some fucking reason.
Yeah but we bullied we've bullied them since then they're
not. They're not gonna be doing that
anymore. I believe they're coming right
back, right back. If pretty if there was no Purdy.
He's not he's not available 20 24.
I don't think Sam. Don't know this keeping much of
a cap on his ATP. Which makes him I think it puts
him back in the, you know, in the conversation.
A little is an eighteenth round her.
But I guess we're both setting and take it easy but he's not
going to like, okay, maybe you're right, that he shoots up
to like a hot pink conjurer pick 90, but like sure.
Okay, that's great. If you took a bunch of Lansing
shoots up till then, but like it's not that amazing, I guess.
Is what I'm saying is like, it feels to me.
It still feels like more. The payoff is not quite worth
the risks. I think it's pretty.
I don't know, we've gotten positive news on pretty so far.
I may You think Donald's a bigger Factor than you do?
Pat but I don't know. I don't think the payoffs worth
like the 50 jumping ATP is worth the risk of dead roster spot,
one issue with with it is that it's a three quarterback built.
And so, yeah, you got a guy who's going maybe as like, a
ninth round pick or whatever now, but he's, but you wasted
probably attempt round pick on a quarterback.
You don't need anymore because you've got Lance at this great
price. So like, you know what I mean,
like your payoff. His big even as it seems because
you still are the three quarterback building.
Like that could have been an awesome running back.
Pick that you don't get to swap out now.
Yeah, yeah makes sense. All right, last couple questions
here. Davis, do you have a stack here
that you like, that's perhaps undervalued towards the the far
right side of the chart. Denver Denver.
Denver to me is like the one team where I'm like, yeah, I can
see Russell Wilson returning to being the quarterback 8 with
competent head-coaching, Judy, Sutton, Mims, dulcich perine,
they're all the whole offense is priced.
Other than Judy Judy. You could say is like, I mean,
what he had 950 yards and six touchdowns last year, like he
was still kind of decent Sutton really fell off, but You could,
you could they the case is pretty simple, which is just
hack. It is basically Urban Meyer, you
know, he's Michael Scott, he just everything around him
grinds to a halt, because he was so bad at his job.
Sean. Payton comes in figures.
It out is like Russ. I know you can still do this,
yada yada and there the Seahawks again basically, right?
But you can, you can see it. I'm not saying it's the most
likely scenario, so you can see it.
And I actually very similar to have the Seahawks ended up being
all these legal Last year because everyone was so cheap
because everyone was so convinced they were going to be
terrible and sort of unlike you know the Texans I don't think of
any path to being a top ten offense, the Panthers, no path,
Titans no path, Buccaneers no path, Washington, no path,
right? I actually think you can see the
path right for Denver, like the offensive line is pretty good.
They have, they have a lot of good offensive.
Lineman Sean. Payton is a very good coach who
got really good results out of not only like Peak Drew Brees
but he also Sean Payton. Really well when Breeze, totally
lost his fastball. They were still good on offense.
When Breeze, really, could barely still play.
What's rust is buying on the Playbook stuff that's going to
matter so much because, like breeze and Peyton were like, you
know, on the same exact patient. Also, I'm Peyton comes in and
says rescue fucking embarrassed yourself last year.
You were embarrassing. You you made this whole big
deal. You got your own office.
We did everything you wanted. We and you were embarrassing.
You embarrassed yourself in front of everyone and I Save
you. If you buy into me I can bring
you what you want. That's that's what and I don't
know. For us will buy it.
I don't know if he is humble enough to do that, but that's
the cell that seems really grounded.
Yeah, I'm gonna little worried great.
That was so good. I'm a little worried that he was
calling audibles from Seattle. I'm like a little hesitant to go
with the Rust part of it, but I'm interested in the Denver
stuff. Like I kind of like this is one
where I like doing Herbert and bring in Denver stuff back.
And I also like stacking up the Chargers Broncos game without
either quarterback, especially, I have an elite quarterback and
I'm like, like, okay, we're also like maybe you have a good year,
but I don't think you're passing Alan, you know, I'd rather have
Alan. In week 17 so or Mahomes or
Hertz or Lamar whatever. So I've been that's how I've
been hesitant to take Ross but I but I think if Russ has a good
year he got up a very good year so I do.
Yeah I don't mind it at all. I like the bed.
It does feel a little like you don't need that much.
The bed is pretty simple. It's just like Russ isn't
horrible anymore. Like, you know, his whole
career. He's been pretty good.
They simplify the Playbook and I think this is a little
anecdotal. I don't have the numbers to back
it up, but Russ, did get a little bit better towards the
end of the last year. I don't think I'm making that up
like week 17. He had a pretty it again.
You had a good game, no one, no one had him who was still alive,
but he had a pretty good game. So I like the Denver stuff.
Yeah. Pat.
Any teams you wanna make a case for here and I've talked through
a lot but I think I kind of stuck mine in I guess I'd say
Green Bay is kind of interesting where like I think Jordan log
gives you a little bit of rushing upside.
Nothing crazy. But like just a maybe a touch
certainly more than like Kenny Pickett.
Yeah and that's their slightly cheaper than the sealer stack
and Can get, I think, Jaden read is really nice attack on
Christian Watson. I've already taken him a decent
amount. You know, like in that spot on
breaking ties towards him, just for the weekly upside and then
part of it too. Is like I know I can get Jordan,
lovely. If I've gone with an elite
quarterback love is pretty interesting.
As like you know actually maybe has a little bit of a weekly
stealing and if even if not even if you stinks he's going to
start all year. So I got the job security thing.
Locked up And then, yeah, I like Romeo Dobbs is like, fine, you
know, he strikes me as slightly overpriced, but he will run
routes and Jane and read will also run routes.
So they've talked up as returning, ability everything,
why is the market so certain that Jaden Reid is going to be
jobs out for those. Well, they're actually not Dobbs
is like they're not 6:30 picks more expensive or something like
that. But doesn't that doesn't that
indicate sort of what we were just talking about with Keenan
Allen like the Rookie comes on at the end of the year type
thing. Yeah I mean I think I if the
question is does read b dubs out?
I think he's the favorite to beat dubstep event of the year.
I mean it's they picked him. What in the early second round
mid second. Round Dobbs is the fourth round.
Pick Dobbs was fine last year but to me his rookie year didn't
profile is something where he's going to stop a second round
rookie from getting on the field.
I just think dubs town is like okay and the Packers Has told us
they think reads Talent is better than doubles but where
they drafted him? So I think I just didn't
favorite four more outs. So if I can give the bull case
for Dobbs who I do, like it's week three Packers already, have
a whole infirmary room full of injured, wide receivers, they're
playing against Tampa Bay. Who at the time we thought was
good. The Packers opened their Drive,
the scripted Drive. They did Dobbs got four Targets
on the opening drive and caps. Off with a touchdown.
And I just remember thinking like Rogers hates every young
guy he's ever played with. Like he's good.
There's got to just be something impressive.
He's doing that and he hadn't yet another good game the next
week. And they basically we never
heard from him again because Christian Watson started to
break out and they started doing more to tight end stuff.
But I just at that moment of being like, I don't it just and
like, obviously this is like a weird thing where like when you
watch the games, you can remember stuff.
That's actually extraneous and doesn't matter at all.
But I just remember being like really Impressed by that and I
don't know II. Think I think he's good.
I just I just think he like, kind of was just impressive to
me watching him too. I struggle with the day three
guys because like it's such a high bar to clear for them to
really become anything. So we're like Dobbs as a day,
three pick, he's already a hit like if he basically does
nothing for the rest of his career.
But he likes starts feel like stays in the fantasy football
player pool for like another season after this.
He's like a shit like That's how little we usually expect.
And the fact that they then drafted they have a they have
two other second round picks that he's competing with at the
wide receiver position. I just like kind of the base
rate argument against Dobbs just doesn't feel it just doesn't
feel very good to me. Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, he thought I mean, so the numbers I look at you look at
yards for out, Ron yards for game, targets, around, that type
of stuff. If you filter for all rookies,
that have like at least 200 routes Dobbs profiles is like a
70th 75th percentile rookie season, which is, which is fine,
right? But it's not, it's not great.
It's clearly behind guys like Christian Watson.
Wilson London, Allah, they obviously like, no.
No one's comparing them dollops those guys anyways.
But yeah, to me, It's just I think I'm with Pat that like
it's a somewhat promising rookie year but I'm just concerned that
the immediately you know took another water super in the
second, round to the Green Bay Point.
One thing I wanted to add on as I think Musgrave is actually an
interesting 18th rounds tight end.
If you have a Green Bay stack, they took him pick 42 overall,
he's not getting drafted much. There's no tight ends on that
roster. They basically took two rookies.
Tyler craft, I think talking crap Tucker, that's what
concerns me. Is that they took the
doubled-up, they took two bites of the Apple.
I think. That's yeah, that's fair.
But if you look at their roster like it's literally like there's
nothing, there's some like passing specialist guys.
Like I think the guard, the guara still there.
Yeah. Like it's gonna be one of those
two guys. And yeah, I do 18th.
Round side ends. You're not getting guys with
like completely locked and roll. He's not my favorite 18th side
and in a vacuum under saying, like, in Jordan love Stacks.
I think it's a pretty interesting way to, you know,
fill out your onesie positions. For for pretty cheap.
So I'll add that on for Green Bay.
Yeah. I think both guys are kind of on
my watch list right now because they when they talked about
drafting them, they were like they both are in line, regular
tight ends they weren't like Musgraves going to be in the
slot like Tucker is going to be in line.
They're like they're essentially like duplicates.
Like we we want to tight end so we drafted to so I think like,
my guess is that we start to hear from the Beats like
Musgraves firmly ahead or Tucker's, firmly ahead.
And then I'm taking I'm taking that guy but I don't want that.
I don't want to draft the wrong tight end there.
I think I'm I'm just playing a little more conservatively than
you are maybe. Yeah, that's fair.
Maybe I should wait, I've just a couple I think I've taken them
once in a love stack, but I see your point.
And there's certainly risk certainly rest there.
I don't have to be guessing on that now.
I could probably, I could probably wait a little bit and
have more confidence. Cool.
Let's Enough not much to talk about another team atp's,
positional stuff I'll hit on quickly.
We have this discussion last week but the same kind of story
holds true where if you wanna, if you kind of want to look at
last year's atp's and compare them to this year, the basic
story is that quarterbacks quarterback ones are much more
expensive than they were last year.
They're going at on average, round pick 55 this year last
year was like pick 65. So the top Of quarterbacks are
like a full round more expensive than last year.
The running back ones, are cheaper, the running back to use
are cheaper and the wide receiver ones are more
expensive. So, I think this is drafters
reacting to both, you know, early, heavy wide receiver built
a good Advanced rates last year. Elite cubies have good Advanced
to its last year. So drafters are pushing those,
two groups up and they're pushing down, sort of running
backs on the other side tight ends are Close to the cost they
were last year. I think, you know, it depends
how you look at it. Even had a good chart on this
with. Once you take out, he'll see,
everyone's falling. Exactly.
Yeah, I definitely recommend looking at Hayden started as a
little bit more granularity than this does.
But yeah, unless anyone wants to say something here, we might as
well get into our favorite ATP values.
Anybody have one prepped and ready to go.
Pat. You want to give your favorite
atpchar? You sure.
So we talk, Denver, I'll go Marvin.
Mims, who I think there's going to be a drum beat, the drum
beats already, starting Cecil a me had a report out with saying.
He thinks that Marvin's could be the best best Blancas her and I
think we got a this this is, this is, this is key.
A Handler. I think we need to, we need the
vet, we need to back off. Hey, I'm playing a game where I
want closing line value. And I think we're going to get
closing line value with Marvin Mims.
I mean, I actually don't think he's caged a Handler like his.
The thing about him is that he, yeah, he's an outside under
sized deep threat but like there aren't there, like KJ Handler
yards after the catch, also, sort of similar to kids
anywhere, but like, he's supposed to be a guy who gets
open, you know? Like that's that's the big
thing. That's what Peyton talked about.
Separating him from the pack of these other wide receivers in
the class. He was a second-round pick.
They traded up for him Sean Payton's hand-picked wide
receiver for this first year. They're clearly not like in love
with the guys already there they've already been kind of
shopped around so I think that Marvin Williams will be a pretty
big Riser throughout the course of the summer.
I think I do think you're going to hear like he looks good, he's
separating. And they have a plan for this
guy. We've already heard that stuff,
and I think we're going to keep hearing it.
It's going to keep getting louder.
I mean, his ATP is like 172. I mean, I think I think he could
be significantly higher. Like I think it could be like,
you know, 12 11th 12th round pick by the end of this and we
have to buy well then we have to buy into either him having the
ability to out produce Courtland Sutton or the Denver offense
feeding Five skill position players.
We also, I mean I've heard from, you know, listen to the rotor
World podcast and like the, you know, the sentiment on Sutton
does not appear overly positive people.
I think he might just be done. Yeah, they've been there is a, I
think something was really good at one point in his career.
But it's now, what is it like your for coming off?
The ACL tear like I don't know, man, it's not looking great for
him. Yeah, I'm back to what it used
to be, which is kind of, and I think if you're hearing it's
men's Mims from, you know the training camp reports like
Sutton. Yeah I'm kind of here's the
thing on Denver beat writers I don't trust them I don't trust
any one of them because they all got they all got the Alberto
dulcet ship. So this is your to snake-bitten
Alberto. Did they did they?
Yes. Do you don't you dare?
Don't you dare? This is like this because they
all been amazing. Done everything.
The coaching staff is one of them to do.
They did The Joint practice with the AL boys, and they all were
like, Alberto tight end one, right?
And then he plays in the fourth quarter, the third preseason
game, and then they all pretended, the whole time that
they knew that was happening. They all do a man, did it?
Listen, anyone who watched Nathaniel Hackett hug Greg
dosage and say, look at that hair?
Are you worried? Are you worried that Sean Payton
is not going to have the Same affinity for dulcich, a zakat, I
am, I believe he's been a follower and I've taken some of
them, but, I mean, yeah, I can see.
I think my, I never loved Craig. Dulcich.
I never, I never learned because now I'm jamming, dulcich, right?
I never, I never learned, I never take the right lesson away
from that. So, one, one final word on memes
like you look at, and this applies didn't read to you, but
drafters are so like caught on The round one round two wide
receivers now that like it's tough to find Value Mims.
And Reid are the guys where if you just plotted, the draft
Capital verse ATP. They are the two guys that
really haven't been priced up much.
And I think, I think people are probably going to just Hammer
them at some point. So we rice is going 129 and I
think I don't I literally don't think there's a single person.
The fantasy industry who had Rice ranked ahead of mems in
their pre-draft ranks and they both were second-round picks
like one. There's a 50 spot Gap in a
teepee between these guys like I just not going to hold, so
you're saying Russell Wilson is better than Patrick mom's.
Is that the argument I'm saying? 50 spots available discount a
hell of a discount to get on a guy who also has good draft
capital and we think is a better pure talent.
Yeah. No, I'm with you.
I think I think mems is a pretty good bet.
For ATP value Davis hit us with years.
Who's your favorite favorite? EV value on the board right now.
Pat just did a sexy young rookie.
I'm gonna go. I'm gonna Do the exact opposite
way. Jeff Wilson jr.
I mean, this is this shit is so obvious to Devin.
Devin ocean, a is the running back. 35?
Like, are we like, how certain are we?
That he even gets like, 100 touches as a rookie, you know.
Like I think I think he's like a splash player, right?
He's and and he's a great like-for-like replacement for
most hurt. I think that's sort of what they
see there. But come like week, three, Jeff
Wilson jr. L've carry 63 yards, two catches
eight yards and a touchdown like just like pencil that shit in
and the more we get closer to the season and the more people
stop wish casting and the more they live in the reality of
what's actually going to happen and Jeff Wilson jr.
Is going to go from like running back, 55 to running back 41.
It's just a tale as old as time. Like it's I'm Leone right now.
I'm the guy, I'm the one being like, I know, Austin is fun, but
just be realistic, and it's going to be Jeff Wilson jr.
Like, it just, it is what it is. Are you taking him?
Mr. Know cuz you don't even have.
Okay, both of them. I have.
So at running back I have 26 percent, Jeff Wilson jr.
But I have 16% where he most hurt because I think I literally
think ATP. Like it's just backwards.
It's just backwards. Like I'm taking the other two
guys to I'm taking most dirt and Wilson.
I like, I like, I like ashamed. I like a Shane just fine.
But I don't, I like, I like Damien Harris a lot and he goes
like 10 picks later. Yeah.
So yeah. Here's to, I mean, we kind of
learned this like anytime there's an offense that projects
to score a ton of points and doesn't have like the
quarterback goal goal, line threat like to as not running in
touchdowns and their top running back is going at One 1080p just
like Hammer. All those guys like we saw that
in years past with the Box were like both Row Joe and for net,
which I don't even think they were this Jeep, but they were
both really cheap one year. Like just hammered both of them
like, yeah. Good off it.
So Terry and and Moss, One year. Yeah, exactly.
And, and neither was this cheap either, but, but Singletary was
a massive hit. It's just so simple.
Like, people are, you know, throwing their hands up with
uncertainty but like one of Wilson moster or a Shane?
I think Shannon's price is fine too.
I don't love them as much as other two guys, but like one of
Wilson are most. I think is scoring a good chunk
of touchdowns for this team and multi-touch down upside this
late at running back is pretty appealing to me.
So apparently my rankings are pushing everyone to a chain and
not the other two. So all right.
I'm gonna I'm gonna Tweak that, thank you.
But yeah, I don't hate like, I don't think any of us hate each
and I think I can talk myself into him too, but I'll be at,
probably do like him. Yeah, yeah.
Like him. But yeah, yeah.
All right, all talk about someone who's a little higher up
boards. Again this game, we're going
percentage of ADP increase. So someone like this could still
be a big value. I'm going with Ramon A pic 30.
I was just listening to Pete's best ball breakfast.
I think ramond raises highest exposure running back at like
40% or something. I just straight-up.
Don't get it with Ramon Dre. I sort of had a parody Thread
about this over the weekend, but all the cases against him, I
think are just like logical fallacy after logical fallacy
like, who owned the Patriots, backfield is going to steal
pass. Catching her goal, line work for
a montre like, you gotta squint, really hard to tell yourself.
That story and number two, like the Patriots, I don't think
projects to be this amazing offense but I think with a real
offensive coordinator. You know we saw this in 2021
when Matt Jones had a offensive coordinator, this team was top
10 and offensive scoring the running back.
Scored a bunch of touchdowns, I think it's a team that's going
to filter their offense through the running back because they
don't really have skilled wide receivers or montre to me.
Still projects is having a pretty big receiving role so I
mean I just don't get it like you can start your draft.
Like, if you want to start your draft, two wide receivers and
grab room, Andre, I just think like you're kind of stealing a
TV value away from the rest of the room.
He's just, you know, I think projections will drive him up,
he's such an obvious value to me, but I think, yeah, the anti
Pat's bias is maybe where I fail to get any p-value here.
I think people maybe to say, belcheck running backs and that
keeps them low. But yeah, I don't get it.
I'll have a ton of them at this price.
Yeah. I mean he's a need to click
right now. I guess I was kind of like
amused that people when I tweeted out like a picture of I
had or a screenshot of. I had Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs
and Ramon Dre, is it. I start and I got like people
pushing back like on Ramon Dre as like going to hi-yah and that
that was kind of shocking to me. Like because we are In a bubble
and we're projecting essentially, like what things
look like once the bubble gets bigger, you know, once more
people come into the space and I was kind of shocked that, like
people who aren't drafting a ton right now are like, oh, that's
high for am Andre. I was thinking, maybe like, who
are monitoring the third sounds nice.
So, I mean, yeah. The clothesline value is not up
to us. You know what I mean?
It's up to other people, so I didn't have that perception was
at least, at least made me, like, kind of dumped.
Like I was like, I made Like double check my assumption.
That people are going to want room Andre in the second round,
the normies, I mean. Yeah.
Now that's certainly fair. I think, I think it's possible.
They that people don't like your Madre, the Casual players don't
like him as much so I think. Yeah, that's it.
But if he stays at pick 30 I guess I don't see him falling
and maybe now we're going outside the scope of our game
but I just think he's like a great pick regardless.
So I'll probably end up with a ton of them this year if that
casual setting. Man keeps them down.
Like he was in the most dysfunctional, like, one of the
most dysfunctional offenses. We've seen last year and still
would be, I think if he does we did last year.
It's not like amazing in the third round but you're not like
burned by it completely. And I think there's there's a
lot more upside there. So we'll see.
Anyways, we'll get out of here. Pat.
What do you have coming up this week for leg up?
Yes. I've got a, I'm going to be
working on some stuff that I've talked about.
I don't know if we'll have it out this week on.
Kind of the next two piece, I'm working on our, how to attack
the elite quarterback ATP this year, and also, someone late
round picks, but I did have an article last week on Elite tight
end, which I think is a big Edge and laying out the case for
that. So check that out on the site.
I'll probably put out a tweet thread on that summarizing some
of the findings in the next day. Or two Underdog credits are
still available. You can get a $50 under all
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Limited credits on those on how many underdogs credits I have
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But there are still some available Awesome.
Bada-bing. Bada-boom Davis, anything for
you with your newsletter, Sports grid, anything going up this
week. Yeah, Sports, good Finnish
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Jeff Edelstein from from rotor, Grinders and scores and odds is
coming on the take cast this week.
I'm very excited to to chat with him and I've been working on
dynasty rankings because we're in the middle of Dynasty season
and I'm trying to make all these trades and everything and Really
know how I feel relative to the market so that'll be out on
something. They just need to be if I'm
going to do the work, I'm going to publish them somewhere for
sure. Thanks, that's awesome.
Well, well, here at ATP chasing, will be back next Monday,
obviously ship, chasing coming up this Wednesday.
And yeah, I will be on Twitter, continuing to alienate my
followers with this horrible week, 17.
Bit, you can find me there. Anyways for Pat it's going well
so far, yeah. Go for bat for Davis, ztp
chasing will be back next year.