Hello everyone, and welcome to the final edition of ADP
Chasing. It's been a long summer.
You've been went up with us through the February debates of
DJ Chark for Adam Feeling, and now we're finally wrapping
things up. We have a great show plan today.
We're going to be going over our closing line value game
throughout the off season as well as hitting on key news with
the Cooper cop injury and Jonathan Taylor non trade.
But yeah, we'll also probably hop in a draft at the end, so be
sure to stick around for that. Let's do it.
Pat Fryer homo This is why. This is why I'm hot.
Anita Hand. Fix your site, Jamar.
Elfo, play chase. You can't handle the heat.
It looks like we're finally assist boys.
You're right. Great start.
There we go. Kerrain is that you're looking
at. A man who moved cross country in
the middle of best all summer. A man drafting Rottweiler team.
A man who just timed out on a drafter's draft.
You're. Probably in.
You're probably in one with me. We're chasing overlay.
We're feeling good, Kerrain, you're probably not feeling that
good. You're probably feeling beat to
shit. No, I'm feeling good, guys.
Just finished my last PBM team. Gonna get that tweet out in one
one second. Took me a little little more
walk to the walk to the coffee shop, got some, got some cold
brew, got Brittany a ginger tea, and crafted a tweet with a bunch
of stupid emojis in it. So you'll see that soon they go.
Amazing. So you're all moved in to to San
Diego now, Pat, you're getting? I'm in San Diego.
I wouldn't say I'm moved in or settled in.
The apartment is completely empty.
Your audio sounds great, so I don't.
I mean, it seems the acoustics seem really good, so that's the.
Acoustics are great in here. Yeah, well that was one of the
things we we talked to a realtor and said I'm gonna need a house
with great acoustics. So let me I can actually not
plugged into anything. This is on the laptop.
So this is like this is the empty apartment.
It's completely empty. Nice.
There's nothing in it. Incredible.
Just extremely good vibes. I mean, I can't believe one.
I can't believe that your your take was I'm gonna win
$2,000,000 and then move to the least tax friendly state in the
Union. And then also I'm gonna do that
on September 1st. Just really great stuff.
For me, Hey, yeah, well, you know, when you win, you gotta
you gotta make sure that you don't seem like out of touch.
And so I just immediately wanted people to, like, think I wasn't
sharp at all. And so it's like, I'm gonna move
during best ball season. And not only am I gonna move to
a highest tax state, I'm gonna remind people that I was in
literally the highest tax place in the entire country before
that This is actually a lower tax move for me because I was in
New York City. That's probably the yeah, New
York City is the only place you can move from where that's
probably true in San Diego, that's.
Yeah, this was an upgrade. We love to see it.
Well, I made the much easier move from Maine to New
Hampshire, which is just a couple hour drive.
But yeah, this is my probably like 6 different backgrounds
I've had over the course, the ADP chasing offseason.
I gotta put some stuff back here, so.
Yeah, busy, busy, busy offseason for you guys.
I haven't done shit. I've just been same place I've
just been. Literally, literally I I just I
don't know if you guys are feeling this but I the the sense
of relief. I finished on DraftKings this
morning and I finished on underdog this morning and so all
I have left to do is these drafters teams and like you know
that's overlay anyway. So if those teams suck they
suck. It doesn't matter.
I I feel a giant sense of relief right now.
I feel great to be done drafting these teams.
I'm gonna see drafts tomorrow. You're you're done.
Oh, I'm gonna keep. I'm gonna keep drafting
obviously until kickoff. But it's all low stress now.
It's like it's like what's done is what's done is done.
The flagship contests are over my chances of winning
$1,000,000. You know it is what it is.
That's all done I. I can just.
I can just draft guys I like. I can just take Brees Hall.
I can take Wanda. I can take Wandale in every
draft. I've been doing this.
Brees, Hall and Wandale are all my final BBM team I'm about to
tweet out. Yeah, yeah, Wandale.
Honestly, if I could go back in time and do one thing, it would
be telling myself that to not be worried about Wandale's knee and
to just draft him the entire time.
Because I would love to do a final exposure tweet with
literally 100% Wandale. With Wandale on every single
team like that is my dream. But I obviously was not able to
accomplish. You guys are gonna be fine
without the Giants. Uh, third string slot receiver?
Don't worry. That's You mean you mean you
mean the Giants targets per route run leader?
That's that's gonna be a I mean you, Sam.
Yeah. That's 5:15 on the last show.
OK, yeah, I just wanted to get a couple bad, couple more bad
takes off, But I think you're going to be OK without the 55
backup slaughter seater for how? He he got recruited to Nebraska
as a running back. If there was a way to
analytically measure guys who had that dog in him, I I think
Wandell might lead the entire NFL in dog per pound like he.
Dog per dog per pound I. Mean dog.
Dog per pound would. Be close, I mean 22 not.
Tutu doesn't have that much dog tank.
Tutu doesn't have that much dog. Deuce Vaughn is the other guy.
Dog, yeah. I don't know, I think.
I think it might be deuce. I think Deuce actually weighs
more than Wandell. I believe that's.
I mean, he must. He's won 70 in Wandell.
That might actually be close. Do you know what?
Yeah. I OK, I'm gonna guess.
Nice tight show already. Nice tight show.
I'm gonna guess I'm gonna. I'm just OK.
I'm just stalling because I don't want to show these this
closing line value game. I really.
I fought hard with the lawyers to not have to show this
because. Oh really?
Boy, I mean, it's resolved this thing and you know, yeah, yeah,
that you did. You made the worst pick by far
in this. Let's just get into it.
I'm gonna guess Karain one. I'm gonna get Karain one and.
All right. Big breeze, baby.
Oh, man. So I just kept did pretty well.
I just kept picking guys that I was taking and the market didn't
like. It took the market until the
last week. To start drafting Hardy in Tutu.
But like, I just like, I think I nominated.
I think I nominated every 5-7 wide receiver I was drafting.
Yeah, so some people we're trying to.
Some people were just trying to give like good picks and not
just jump on the steam of players that were clearly gonna
rise in value. And some people tried to cheat
the system and win the game and that's that's how Pat got to 9%
here. So Davis, if you went with
Davis, you invested in a very safe, like treasury bond type of
investment. Yes, it was a solid return.
If you invested with me, I beat the stock market.
If you invested with Sam, it's better than an NFT it.
Was better than. What's so funny though, Karane,
is that. I was telling you this whole
time, if you like Brees Hall in the third, you're gonna love him
in the 4th. And I ended up being right.
I love. Him in the 4th.
But but The thing is The thing is now is that I am jamming the
shit at a breeze hall. Like when we started doing this
I was the I was the Breeze Hall bear and I I bear.
I don't think I had. I bet I had like 2 or 3% of him,
you know, before, before the. What was even the impetus for
him starting to go in the 4th? I don't even remember.
It was just the cook rumors, I guess.
He fell to the late 3rd, but didn't really in the DraftKings.
You could get him in the fourth during the cook rumors, then
cooked. I think the impetus grim on the
4th, yeah, was like the cube symbol on DraftKings made him
drop. Even the fourth, yeah.
But then he came back up from there because I like sat that
fall out. Like I or I I took some of the
4th on DraftKings but I I kind of cooled off because I was like
oh this is going to happen. I can get even cheaper.
But then Cook left New York and it didn't like seem like super
imminent. He was going to sign or maybe he
wouldn't sign and he creeped back up and I I dipped my toes
back in at the the mid third prices.
But then, once Cook signed, that's when he was.
Truly in the. What?
What feels? Go ahead, Sam.
Yeah, I just wanna set the. I think some people in the chat
are confused. So let's set the stage here.
What we actually did is I'd say in about half the shows from
February until now, we picked the best value at the end of the
show and this is measured in percent increase or decrease in
my case in ADP from when we made the pick till now.
So this is not our entire portfolio.
This is like 12 to 14 players, I think slightly different numbers
for each of us. So I would say that like you
know you should judge us as fantasy analysts purely based
off the results of this game. This is like a clear clear.
Signal of how good we are. Fantasy football.
This is kind of pretty, yeah. Everything seems like a good.
Metric to judge people on for sure.
Yeah. So let's let's dive in.
This is the overall numbers. I think the devil is in the
details here. This is what really matters.
So. So Pat yes he got you some kind
of cheap big wins you know picking Tony Pauler.
Jalen Warren that was obvious you know.
But but he gave you the two worst picks in the entire game
and Kyle Pitts and Brisal. So if you.
Stuck with Pat, you got honestly stacked together a couple small
wins, you know, maybe a little bit more couple small losses,
but I was. Trying to say fuck, why did you
choose Kyle Pitts when everyone hates Kyle Pitts?
There was like, what? What could have?
The only thing that could have gotten Kyle Pitts as a riser
would have been if they traded for a quarterback.
That would have been the only. Thing I think I had a couple
outs of the Kyle Pitts. One, I forget when I made it,
but they traded like quarterback.
I can. I can check when you made it.
Yeah, that might have been like an April one or something.
They trade for quarterback. You're also at the time and he
went in the he's probably going the late 6th at the time and he
was a third round pick the year before and he's coming off this
injury. So I was like, you know he's
going to be practicing making highlight plays again and we're
going to return to the same hype that we that we had on this guy
to some extent, you know he jumps to the 5th.
That's a big win. Well, it did.
It did happen with some guys, right?
Like Sky Moore, Like nothing really happened for him, right?
He just returned to where he was going last year as someone who
is completed. The Darren Waller rise is
basically what I was hoping for. Yeah, also I should say quickly,
sorry Davis, I won't wanna let you continue but I didn't put
this on this chart. But on this chart red is is me.
Sadly green is Pat and purple is Davis.
So that's that's assured that, but Davis worried about to say.
Well, I just. I'm in this spot where I've
completed 425 drafts on Underdog.
I have $1297.00 of exposure to Kyle Pitts.
He is my third most drafted player overall, and I don't even
like him. Like, I don't even.
I'm not even all that like. It's it's it is purely a profile
bet on a guy who is so good and gets open so easily.
But like, you don't have to tell me I'm a dipshit for taking him.
Like, I totally get how this goes wrong.
Like Parker Hesse is out there. He's, you know, Desmond Ritter
sucks ass like. The the people have just made-up
their minds on Kyle Pitts really is I think what it is, is people
just there. There are there are not good
people on both sides. It's just it's just two people
who are totally entrenched on both sides of the Kyle Pits
debate. I don't know, man.
I think my read on it was once we got the preseason stuff of
Kyle Pitts not running every route.
Then we all we all pooped our pants.
That's what happened because we were all so nervous.
We're going to get burned again. That we're all just like, God,
it's it's all going to hell. We're losing.
We're losing again on Cal pits. I actually do think.
It's gonna happen. I actually do think he, but it's
much more palatable as a seventh round pick than as a second
round pick. Like basically I.
Can just smash in the seventh round?
Yeah, I looked and I was like man, I didn't have enough.
I made a point in my last few drafts to target him cuz I felt
like I didn't have enough. So, so the thing about the word
is the 7th rounder, the thing about the Pitts preseason usage
stuff is like, I think I would chalk that up as nothing.
And I still like mostly I'm chalking that up as nothing.
The only small part of me that makes me think that is real is
the knee injury thing for him. And he had that, yeah, that knee
brace he was wearing. I think he's shed that now, but
he wore that like much later than what sort of the Twitter
doctor consensus sort of predicted it.
It was like flagged. Yeah, sort of.
This is a bit of a red flag. He's still hobbling a little
bit. He stills and.
Maybe they were lying about how much.
Yeah, maybe the injury is like, yeah, exactly, exactly.
So that's what had me just a little worried on Pitts.
I think I'll end up being, like, slightly underweight him.
But yeah, I I definitely see. Like I I would not tell people
that you're dumb for being in on Kyle Pitts this year.
It's just not it's not my favorite play with sort of the
different concerns there. But anyways couple funny things
here I wanted to highlight. Davis somehow scores a win for
the Baker Mayfield take. That ends up being a positive
riser in ATP value, which. When I when I pick, when I
picked him, he was like the quarterback 38 because people
were still thinking Kyle Trask. People were thinking they might
trade for trade lands. People are thinking they might
trade for Tannehill. And I was like, no, dude.
Baker is gonna win this job, so I like that win there.
Feels like, feels like actually, if I had to go through all these
picks, the one who should be graded as the biggest win is
Brock Purdy. The Purdy was a huge win
because. Yeah, I agree.
Actually, that's green. Yeah, that's a good point.
Will you Crane? You sort of saved me actually
because there would have been a chance that I would have been
very stubborn on Trey Lance and that I would be like, look dude,
you play to win the game. What do you win when you win
Trey Lance and the last round of Underdog and and just like it's
an example, I think of something I really would have been
stubborn on when I was like 27 years old and I'd never would
have been a Purdy guy. But I totally changed course and
before Purdy got really expensive like Purdy, I've 12%
of him. Across 425 drafts on underdog.
But at one point it was way more than that.
At one point he was my most drafted quarterback because he
was like the quarterback 28 and that.
I was just like, that's just free money because he's the 49er
starter. Now that he's like the
quarterback 22, I like it a lot. Like obviously his closing
price. I think it's pretty close to
efficient, but to me that is one of the biggest wins and I think
James Cook, Sam got on that. Very early as well, he ended up.
I mean Cook is, I know this isn't a best ball show, but
James Cook is just a middle of the fifth round pick in the main
event now. Like if you're doing the main
event this week and you want James Cook, you got to spend a
fifth round pick on him. Well, if we're trying to win
this game, I mean, here's a little bit of advice for for my
competitors here, we should be checking the high stakes drafts,
the early high stakes drafts, and comparing those underdogs.
I think that's like a good. Way to figure out who's gonna
get steamed right? Like who are the high stakes
guys on? That show, That's a good point,
yeah. I will say the Purdy one, like I
do think maybe I should get double credit for that, cuz
that's a Lance faller pick too. And that was, I mean, probably
we didn't have to do fallers, but Lance was probably the
biggest. Like, I mean, obviously Grace
was pretty big too. OK, do this.
Do this next year with fallers and just be haters at the end of
shows instead of. We could play the Bishop Tell
show hate foot. Yeah, yeah.
We actually actually dead ass. We should do that.
We should pick a riser and a faller.
I think that I think that would be a good idea.
I think we actually like on iron.
I think that would be helpful because it could even be, it
could even be guys with that we might even like a little bit,
you know? But it would be like, I'm not
buying, I'm not buying at this price.
I'm gonna buy, you know I'm gonna buy, I don't know, Jacoby
Myers later, after everyone has found someone else to be in love
with. Right.
Or you guys could have gotten me on Breece there.
Yeah, I honestly probably would have been.
I probably backed up your Breece as a good pic take.
So I can't even, I can't even criticize you for that, I think.
Michael Wilson. How is Michael Wilson not a
bigger riser? I see that guy go in the 15th
round. I guess it's just because he was
an 18th round pick and 15. Yeah, yeah, it's not that big.
The percentage change isn't that big.
That's the thing where like the Pollard thing, like he only rose
what, 8 spots maybe or what? Maybe.
But it's a huge percentage difference.
Huge percentage. Yeah, like the penny thing.
I got penny at like 2. Or maybe it was like 180.
This is before he signed with the Eagles.
That's when I had the Penny take.
So he had to shoot up a ton, like 60 spots and he still
didn't even match the the Pollard and Warren picks.
Yeah. The other thing to keep in mind
here, Pat has rankings where you can kind of influence of ADT.
So yeah, he has all these kind of sheep, sheep followers that
take his rankings and just draft this.
Off we're we're we are, uh we are we are we are giving him the
Leone critique of. I don't think it's time to give.
Me, the market. I don't think I'm moving the
market. I'm not.
Yeah, no. Every time he made a pick, he
just like shot those guys up in his rankings.
Yeah, he was clearly gaming the system.
So we have to fact, I think once you factor in all those
variables, you could argue that I I won the game, but you know.
Yeah. Well, we factor in them a lot,
Sam. Feels like when did I can't.
I can't see the color on the Ty Chandler pick.
I assume that I made that one, Davis.
We both had. Yeah, we both.
We had a duplicate Ty Chandler. We both had that and neither of
us really got paid off, even though I think we should.
Have That's such bullshit. Ty Chandler.
Ty Chandler is like the best pick after pick 150 now.
Like Ty Chandler faded. He like like Neo in The Matrix.
He faded for net. He faded Hunt.
He faded. All these guys.
And Kenne and Wong who who was reportedly ahead of him all
preseason, gets placed on the short term IR.
They claim Miles Gaskin, who all due respect to our friend's
friend Laird, Laird and Gaskin go way back, but he is not an
NFL running back. He really is subpart like I just
you know and like Ty Chandler is the answer to the Madison fade,
which I think all of us are on. I don't think any of us are
Madison guys. So like.
Ky Chandler should be going where like he should be like the
running back 45. He should be going like after a
change, Yeah. I have a rant on this where
like, we kind of and I tweeted this out.
So apologies from repeating sort of the same take.
But we've kind of like figured out or at least have good
guesses on a lot of these running back to situations now.
And people are still just like saying, yeah, let's just draft
like Devin Singletary. Who's maybe that the two down
only back up to Damien Pierce. Not even gonna play on 3rd 3rd
downs. Now let's just draft him at 170
every time and leave. Like Rico Daddle, Ty Chandler
Jerome. It's insane.
It's all these guys that have much more upside.
I get maybe you can say their floors are a bit lower, but
everyone's like Singletary at 170 every time.
And let's just leave Rico Daddle at .5% drafted in BBM.
Because I just don't. It's like.
Inertia is only powerful for like some players.
It's like it's like Curtis Samuel has been the wide
receiver 75 to 77 for five months now.
Like like Sam Howell hype Mclaurin injury.
None of that has moved him at all.
But then like 1 poorly sourced Eagles beat report on Kenneth
Gainwell made him an 11th round pick for like 5 days.
I just like. I don't.
I guess I don't really understand.
The the market being so gung ho based on some information and
then not reacting to other information at all.
I I don't know, I don't know. I don't know if it's like the
rankings that people are importing.
I I don't know. I don't actually do not know
what it is. It is strange because like some
guys did because at times I wondered if like the underdog
ADP was updating kind of slowly or slower than some of the other
sites because but then. I don't think that's right
because like, Darren Waller skyrocketed.
And that was one where it was just people.
Like truly. I think being like, oh he's
healthy and he's the Giants number one wide receiver.
And that that information was kind of like, it was one of
those things where I think like the more casual people came in,
they were like, I'm going to take this guy.
Like why would I not take this guy in the 5th like?
But then some other some other situations where I, you know, I
feel like the case for for a player role was super strong as
well. They, their Adps didn't really
budget. So it's just it was sort of
difficult. It was difficult to protect the
risers overall. Yeah.
And then we didn't really have, like last year we had the Jalen
Warren thing where he kind of emerged out of nowhere as the
clear RV2HE shot up draft boards, I think remembering
rights like the 14th, 15th round.
We didn't really have that this year, even though I think we
kind of got like, I guess people just don't want to believe in
like the Rico Dowdl and Chris Evans stuff.
And I get why you don't want to believe in that.
But people seem to just not be buying like the camp news and
PCs and usage. We were getting on some of these
RB twos and just leaving them, you know, for free in the last
round. I kind of expected to see like,
oh, once we get the information on who Dallas is gonna use at RB
2, that's a very valuable role. I think it's pretty clearly Rico
Dowdl with Malik Davis cut from the team and on the practice
squad and the market's kind of just like.
Rico I would take Rico Dowdl straight up ahead of Ezekiel
Elliott in any format. Like any format, I would take
Rico Dowdl ahead of Z, but you can get him in the 18th round.
Well that's the thing too is even if like I may be slightly
disagree on like straight up over.
But then once you factor in that Zeke is probably gonna be
drafted in what 95? Maybe there was like a 5% of you
know window when he was unsigned and he didn't get drafted.
But I think he's gonna be drafted like 95% of drafts and
Rico Daddlow is gonna be like maybe 10% like Chris Evans is
gonna be like maybe 5% like these bets like again Chubba
Hubbard. I think he's a pretty good bet.
I'm not definitely not hating on the Chubba Hubbard pick, but is
like, once you factor in team situation, like how many points
are gonna be available for running back on the Carolina
Panthers versus the Cincinnati Bengals?
Like, is is Hubbard really a better pick in a vacuum than
Dowdle Chris Evans? Like I'm pretty skeptical of
that. And then once you factor in the
roster, ship or ownership, I'm like, why should I be clicking
him over these guys? I don't know.
I've been. I also.
Guys. I think, I think the Chuba
Hubbard one is a good one because I was still taking him
at the end and I was taking him at the end because I don't think
very much of the starter and I am confident that he is the
clear #2. So that like compared to Chris
Evans, like how confident I meant that Chris Evans is
actually the number two like in a.
Chuba Hubbard might be Chuba Hubbard might be the 1B in
Carolina. Yeah, yeah, exactly.
And that that's big, right. You're you're almost getting
like a jail and Warren type of bet with that.
Whereas Chris Evans like if mix and misses a game.
Is it Trayvon who actually leads in snaps or or Chase Brown?
You know, I don't, but there are guys and the guy I would say is
Kyron Williams, who, you know, I was on my final team and was
rested with the starters. And, you know, we talked a
million times how unathletic he is and everything, but like, I
actually feel confident that he is the #2 there.
And they've signaled all summer that he's the number two.
And we got reports from like spring practices that he was
looking good as a pass catcher. He gets rested all preseason.
He's not the only guy, but there are running backs.
So I feel like you've solidified themselves as like Kyonte
Ingram's maybe another one. Kyonte Ingram is a really good
one. Josh Kelly is another really
good one. Like, those guys are cool.
No, the Josh Kelly thing is, is. I actually think that's rational
because Josh Kelly stinks. And Josh Kelly is.
Josh Kelly is. He's on the Charger, She's on
the Chargers. That's the.
Thing. Josh Kelly is a backup to a
different position than Eckler. If Eckler gets hurt, Josh Kelly
is not going to become a high value touch.
God, it will be. There'll be three guys playing
and one of them got a little bit of preseason hype.
I actually think the Kelly thing is totally rational.
Well, OK, I guess, but like Even so one of the guys that makes
you feel. Good cuz I actually didn't draft
a ton of Kelly. Yeah, I don't have in Kyron, I
don't have a ton of Kelly either.
And I get you can make this argument for Kelly, for Dowdle,
for Chris Evans. I understand the argument and I
see a lot of people in the chat making it that, like when the
starter goes down, we don't know that this running back is going
to become a 60% snap player and be the clear starter.
I get that. But I think people are
overconfident that like, again, I'm not hitting on Chava
Hubbard, I'm not hitting on Devon Singletary.
But we're overconfident that those guys are gonna have those
rules roles in the starter goes down like this happens every
year. Last year, Melvin Gordon was
touted as like. One of the things I can't even
deal with the Melvin Gordon stuff because I just openly
mocked people who bid on Latavius Murray.
In my main events and they got paid off and it just like I just
remember being like I do not know ball bro, I do not know.
I did not. I did not bid on Las Vegas
Murray. I don't know, Ball.
Yeah, it's like the Michael Carter thing.
Like Michael Carter and Melvin Gordon last year were touted as
like, these are the best RB twos to take because when the starter
goes down, they're gonna have massive contingent value.
Guess what? Melvin Gordon got cut and
Michael Carter was phased out for Zonovan Knight and
undrafted. Free who has now been cut?
The all these RB twos that we're confident in now like Zeke at
1:45. Like that could completely fail
for Mondre gets injured. So what I'm saying is like I get
Chris Evans 100% can fail. You can tell me he has higher
odds of failing than Chubba Hubbard.
And I agree with you. But a lot of these guys, like,
aren't gonna be that massive contingent upside play, and I
want to mix in like the expected fantasy points going to the
Bengals and Cowboys running backs.
If you're just saying still uncertain, I don't want to like
deal with those situations. I think that's a big mistake in
a tournament. Like, that's what like those
backfields are going to create a shit.
You want it. You want to talk about something
hilarious is that the signal for the last month of the season has
been that cloud over to layer is going to be the Chiefs starting
running back in week one. And no one cares.
I mean, and I don't even I I care in the sense that I take
him with he when it's the 1516 seventeenth 18th round.
But even I don't have the stones to be like he's going to get
more touches. Then McKinnon, you know, like
even I don't really have the stones to put my name down.
And I think, I mean Sean makes this point all the time, which
is that like, Clyde stinks, Like he really does stink.
So any production you get from him is all related to whatever
the Chiefs decide to give him. And it could be they could
elevate generic prints from the practice squad, they could
elevate Le Michael P Ryan from the practice squad and I would
expect them to get better results.
But like Clyde stunk last year and was the running back 8IN
fantasy for the first month of the season and the Chiefs were
undefeated. Like you know it it it was or
did they lose? Was the Colts game week 3?
It doesn't matter. Point being like the market just
decides on guys talent levels and they're right about Clyde.
Like Clyde, Absolutely. The thing, I guess the thing
about Clyde specifically is that you you feel he has no chance to
contribute in the three-week Sprint like he will be a
complete might. He might be cut by the
three-week Sprint. But he is gonna be the chief.
That's necessarily true. Like it.
I mean, he has contingent value in that sense.
Like if if the checker was banged up like Clyde is
basically he's he's very bad. But he I don't think is bad
enough to get like cut as their first round pick.
Like they're gonna just see it out.
You know he won't. He's like, knows.
He knows the offense. I think they trust him to block
from a homes to some extent, like, yeah.
He's like his talent, sort of like attacks on the opportunity
that he will receive, but he's still going to produce like it's
only like a 20% tax. So you know you're going to get.
80% of the opportunities. He's going to get 12 carries and
four targets against the Lions on Thursday night and people are
going to be like losing their minds.
They're going to be like, how did we not know?
And I mean, he's going to turn that into like 38 yards and
probably no touchdowns. But Pacheco's been dinged.
They very, I mean, we don't even have to guess.
We know for a fact. That McKinnon is not going to
get the work early in the season.
Like no, it no chance is he. I mean he'll be he'll play their
downs but they're not gonna do the gadgety end zone stuff with
him to begin the season. I wouldn't.
I don't project. Yeah, that feels like more
likely to come on later in the year.
We saw that last year. I mean, I made this point in our
chat like McKinnon was the RV two overall from weeks 13 to 17.
Like he had this insane stretch. It kind of gets forgotten about
because in the playoffs Pacheco did get more carries, did get
more targets, but McKinnon was still playing a bunch in the
playoffs. He loved the team and snaps in
the Super Bowl. So I do agree with you, Davis,
that I imagine they kind of want to arrest McKinnon for the
stretch Ron, assuming he has something left.
But, and they're just gonna do weird stuff.
I mean, they kept 7 wide receivers like the Chiefs are
going to be. They're going to be more
annoying than they were last year.
Like however annoying you thought that Chiefs were for
fantasy football last year, They are going to be more annoying
this year. It's gonna be like Justin Ross
is gonna play like 3 snaps, then he's gonna play 35 snaps the
next week, then he's gonna go back to 10.
Then Rashi Rice is gonna play 11 snaps but get 4 targets on those
11 snaps. Like it is gonna be a fucking
nightmare. Seven wide receivers on the
Chiefs, two of whom are awful in MBS and Justin Watson like it
is. And it is a nightmare, dude.
It's gonna be horrible. Yeah, okay.
Anyways, let's move to touch on the two pieces of news we got
since we last talked. Let's start with the Cooper Cup
injury. So he's visiting a body
specialist, whatever that means in Minnesota right now, to try
to get his hamstring figured out.
He dropped and. Don't want to hear bodies?
That was, that was like, I felt chills down my spine.
Yeah, when I read the words, when I read the words.
He went to Minnesota to see a specialist.
I was like, that is what you hear before.
We're actually gonna, we're actually gonna sit him for three
weeks. Not a doctor, a body specialist.
Yeah. What is a body specialist?
Yeah. I mean, Cooper Cup, Cooper Cup
is he's a Deadhead. So maybe he's like seeing like a
like a homeopathic, like, holistic.
Like chakra lining specialist or something.
Maybe Alex Guerrero, Is he involved in this?
Maybe. Oh God, I hope not.
I mean, The thing is, though, is that we have, like, demonstrable
cases of hamstring injuries, like ruining seasons for really
good wide receivers, Like, hamstrings are what turned Julio
Jones from Julio Jones into a guy went to go play for the
Titans. It was it was his hamstring.
Like it is. Bad for a wide receiver to have
a recurrence. I'm a hamstring.
In great, it is, yeah. The recurrence was very OK, so
let's frame the conversation two ways.
One, where would you guys take up, like, forget best ball
mania? Like, forget the leverage of
getting him later when most teams got him earlier.
Let's just say like you're in a home league with your buddies
tonight. See home league.
I don't want to take him home league.
Your payoff is so low and the risk of ruin is so much higher.
The spot I feel like where you want to take him is in the main
event is in these big tournaments where the payoff is
massive. Your your payoff is getting a
miss price player who can lead the position and points per game
like home league. I'm taking him after waddle
that. That's my line is is wide
receiver, wide receiver 12, whereas I think I would take
him. Still before Devonte Adams in
like I I'm doing a main event tonight and we pick at the 1:05,
so there's like a fairly decent chance he's there coming back
around in the second round. Based on what I've seen, like he
doesn't get there every time, but there's some reasonable
chance and my guys who I'm picking with don't want to take
him, but I kind of want to take him.
I I would take him behind Adams at this point.
Yeah that's that's I think what my line would be is it's very
close to yours Davis but I would take Adams ahead of him cuz I
think they both have like even without the injury.
I think the systemic as much as I kind of was buying the
Stafford cop stacks this season. I I think there is a lot of
systemic risk with the Rams too. You can make that case with the
Raiders, but Devante just being healthy, I'm taking him over cop
at this point. Well, we're already starting to
get the the overall bad vibes, and I hadn't even pondered this,
but the Los Angeles Rams do own their 2024 first round pick that
had not a first. Time in 10 years.
That had not occurred to me until people started respond
because I sent a cup tweet yesterday and people started
saying actually I sent a Caleb Williams tweet.
Making fun of the Cardinals beat writers and people were like,
no, the Rams actually have good beat writers and I was like, Oh
my fucking God, that would be for so many reasons.
Him going to the Rams would be a disaster for me, mostly because.
Who going to the Rams? Caleb Williams that the Rams get
the number one overall pick like I have a I have a lot of Higbee,
actually. I guess in that world 22
probably sees like 113 targets. If the Rams are the worst team
in the NFL, it is. It is Short King Fall from the
Los Angeles Rams, probably, but it's really bad.
I mean. I don't see like they're too
good. Like they have Stafford, they
have Donald's, they like, they've got McVeigh, like
they're not gonna lose. I mean, I they would have to
like outright like. Obviously Tank like to beat the
Cardinals in the Bucks to the first pick.
Like, I I don't. I don't really see it.
I mean I think it's probably hopeium probably from people who
root who root for the Rams because they know that as
currently constructed there are no outs to like this team as
constructed can't win a Super Bowl right now.
I get maybe if Stafford like totally turns the clock back and
plays like 25 year old minds Matt Stafford or whatever, but
they're they're just so thin. Like, they're they're, they're
they're the guy who shows up to your auction and does stars and
scrubs, but instead of buying Justin Jefferson and Christian
McCaffrey, he buys Naji Harris and Devonte Adams.
And Devonte Adams like, suffers like an old guy knee injury.
You know it's. Like the best analogy I've ever.
I mean, Cooper Cup was sitting right there for you.
Yeah, I guess. I guess that's right.
He's the guy. He's the guy who shows up to
your to your auction draft and spends half his budget on Cooper
Cup and Jonathan Taylor. Like that is literally what?
That's literally, that's literally what the Rams are.
And so I I think you're right. I think they probably are too
good. But the point being is it got
people on the doom. The Doom thought of, they just
set him out. He comes back, the Rams
absolutely stink. He feels a twinge.
And it's like, it's like the season that Devonta Adams got
turf toe. I think he missed nine games or
eight games the year he got turf toe.
And the Packers were awful that year and they and it just kind
of it just didn't work out. Like it's totally in the range.
It is completely in the range of outcomes.
They get the number one. I don't know.
It strikes me as. Is very unlikely just because.
Like, not that, not that they're that bad, but that they're bad
enough that there's just, like, why are we even playing Cooper
Cup? Like, what's the point?
Yeah, OK. OK.
Sure. I'm with you there.
Yeah, that seems possible.
So just to nail down where you guys would take him, let's let's
talk main event, manage leagues. We're in that season now.
You're in the clock. Say say pick 60 and Devonte
Adams. All those wide receivers are
gone and you have the choice between him and Mark Andrews at
Pic. Like Andrews, Andrews, Andrews.
Not like without without a thought.
Like clicking it so fast. Yeah that and sent page.
Yeah, Andrews. OK, what about then?
Him versus Waddle? Olave, Devonta Smith, Calvin
Ridley, those guys. I'm taking, I'm taking Waddle,
but I'm taking, I'm taking him over.
Alave T Higgins, Calvin Ridley, all those guys, I think.
Yeah, I think. I think I'm with Davis there.
I I would say in a home league like the.
Thing with with the home league if you're I do want to think
through like what can I not get later in a in a big way and the
the idea of like I'm going to beat these guys like in a
million different ways throughout this draft So what so
cup I probably I probably would take cup over waddle in a home
league just with the idea of like if he's if he's.
Out the whole year I can still win this league and if he's cup
I've already won the league. It and it depends like obviously
on your your bench spots and you're starting lineup.
Like when people say home league, they normally mean one
quarterback, 2 running backs, 2 wide receiver, one tight end,
one flex kicker, defense. But like my home league, we're
all. Virgin so we have three.
We have 3 flexes and deep benches so like I I I mean he
was a key was captain my home league.
We do one keeper, but like I would probably.
Probably not. I would have taken Waddle over
him in that in that setting. Yeah that's fair because in the
in the shallow home leagues like you can I I in a home league,
once I took McCaffrey first overall the year he was out the
whole season I still won the league.
Like in those shallow leagues you can really recover from one
of your top 2 picks completely busting.
So I'm just kind of going all upside.
But yeah in in like the sharper home leagues, more starting
spots. I think Cop starts to get
trickier because he's already, they're already saying he's
gonna miss week one. It just seems like a very, very
risky pick at this point. So if you are in leagues that
reward that you know, then then make that selection.
If you're leagues, I could see you just win, yeah.
Oh, lava ahead of him in in that type of setting.
But yeah, the the. Better payoff, you know?
Sure, Ridley. Even Ridley, because Ridley's
also high upside. But he's not injured, right?
I mean. I'm not taking Ridley over Cup.
No, but yeah, I probably wouldn't either.
But I could see, like, I wouldn't think if one of my
buddies is like, I'm in a deep league.
Whatever, I'm considering this. I'm scared about the cop injury.
I wouldn't say you're an idiot for doing it.
I probably wouldn't do it though.
I wouldn't say that either. I get it.
I wouldn't do it. The better home league pick is
Jonathan Taylor because generally running backs are
overpriced in. Home leagues and the waiver is
going to be thinner at running back.
Like people are going to read their you know they're going to
read daggles for for waiver wire column and know which running
backs to bid on. Whereas wide receiver is just
like you're just not making up Cooper Cups points.
You know, like you could like, you can take Jonathan Taylor and
like you could start Deon Jackson week one, you could
start where he most or Week 1 or whatever, and Frankenstein or be
it a little bit. Cuz cuz.
But Johnson Taylor. If Johnson Taylor comes back in
Week 5 for the Colts or for whatever team he gets traded to
because running back X suffered a season ending knee injury and
a team ponyed up a second round pick for him.
I mean and his cost is lower too.
Like at this like. So in my home league Jonathan
Taylor lasted all the way to the seventh round and I took him.
Now the. It's a weird format.
My team sucked last year. I traded for a bunch of future
picks like it was the most obvious selection ever for me.
But I do think when you're getting into the range of like
17 games at Cam Acres or Rashad White or 10 games at Jonathan
Taylor, I mean, I think I do probably.
It's just a matter of I do think the the true 17 games sit out is
totally. Like, I'm not taking Jonathan
Taylor in basketball. I am not.
I am, Yeah, not taking him. I my last 10 or 15 on underdog
or DraftKings. I didn't take him a single time.
I only turned out and took him in a in a Rottweiler it was.
A real I don't know what's going on, though.
The Internet here is even worse than in New York.
I've timed out so many times, like every single draft I did
before, like my last two, but like probably 5 drafts in a row.
I timed out at least one pick and one of them was on Jonathan
Taylor. One of them was on Aaron
Rodgers. When I had a Russell Wilson
stack set up, it was, yeah, there's been some rough time
outs. I've been seeing a lot of sharp
drafters post that Aaron Rodgers, Al and Lazard stack
though, so I think that's. Enough.
Yeah. There's a lot of sharp guys out
there. A.
Lot of sharp guys. Let's go back to Taylor.
Let's have the best full conversation on him first, cuz.
To me, it's absolutely insane. His ADP is still 42.
It's He's unpickable. He's unpickable.
It's awesome though. Isn't it awesome, like for guys
who were taking John Taylor that he never got super cheap?
Yeah, he hasn't even. Like come around all the way of
the board, like it's, it doesn't make any sense.
He's priced to me like, OK, what if you just said Taylor is 100%
healthy there? He has no issue with the team.
He's gonna play. He's just suspended for four
games for PDS or something. I think that's basically what
this price reflects the the price is reflecting like a
four-game suspension. No other questions.
He's gonna play. That's like not what the
situation, that's what his current price would that he's
priced efficiently for that situation.
Exactly. He's priced sufficiently for
that. But there's way more uncertainty
than that in my mind. So I think, like, I don't know,
you might not play all season. Yeah, they asked for Jalen
Waddle in the trade. Like the odds of him being
traded, we should view is like maybe like really low cuz they.
Cuz they're now OK, I got. I got another question.
Petulant press conference too. Did did Andrew Luck have a good
running back like he was like this guy's?
I don't think this guy's pulling off any kind of trade talks,
man. He's not.
He's not a negotiator. OK, so the Colts open up the
year home to the Jaguars Rd. Texans, Rd.
Ravens. Home to the Rams.
You know what? They actually might have two of
their winnable games to start the year.
I was going to say what happens if I think if they start the
year Owen for without him, the chances of him either getting
traded because it doesn't matter or getting the contract
extension or more likely. But I I'm seeing now that they
play the Texans and the Rams. So there actually is a chance of
them being two and two when the pop is up and that actually
changes how I feel a little bit. That to me, that makes it less
likely that he is traded. Or that he receives a new
contract at that point? Yeah, my my like and maybe this
is the wrong, it's hard to say, like this is the median outcome
for Taylor, cuz it's so uncertain.
But my sense is like, he obviously wants to accrue a
season. He has to get six games to
accrue a season. These four games on the PUP
actually count towards that six games that he needs to accrue as
long as he's activated, yeah. Exactly.
So if if he is on the pup for these four, I think what he's
gonna do is. Like get healthy enough or be
pretend he's healthy enough. Probably in like be enough.
Honestly, he's gonna, I think, I think he's gonna play in like
two or three games and then go back to the, oh, my ankles hurt,
I'm too injured to play. He can do that.
Like he had an ankle surgery. He has, like, enough plausible,
you know, deniability. He can say that back or
something. Yeah, he can do whatever he
wants. I think that's what's gonna
happen. He's gonna play a couple games
like. Probably not full workhorse or
nothing, Taylor. And then as if he doesn't get a
new contract, he's gonna say fuck you guys, my ankle hurts
again and I just accrued a season.
So let's go do this again next offseason.
That's what I think's gonna happen.
I think you're right. I think my read on it now is
that basically they were they were like basically like piped
down like we'll we'll talk about a contract after the season.
Like, yeah, play play out your deal.
You know you're running back. We're not.
We're not gonna. And he was, he kind of forced
the issue and they took an extremely ridiculous stance with
the rest of the league that they wanted you know $10.00 on the
dollar basically and and kind of did what we thought there was
some speculation rate when the trade request rate when, you
know they said they were allowing him to seek a trade.
Some of the initial speculation was like, this is all BS they're
they're not actually going to accept anything reasonable.
And I think that was ultimately exactly right that they they
were never serious about him getting traded.
They were. They were like, yeah, if someone
wants to pay us something outrageous and we'll certainly
ask for things that are outrageous.
But yeah, they're basically like they're they're kind of just
playing hardball with him. And I don't know.
I don't trust they're. I think they're.
I think they're playing this really stupidly, frankly.
Like they have a they have a young team they could have
gotten something of value for a running back who's asking for a
new contract and they should have taken it.
And the fact that they didn't just makes me, I I don't know.
I think. I think this could go really
badly. I think, yeah.
He plays the fact that it's Jimmer, the fact that it's Jim
Merse just means like we don't know shit like this is this
guy's one of the most like like they traded a first round pick
for Trent Richardson when Trent Richardson like looked like
shit, you know, like yeah they'll it just well that was
different guy that was that was Gregson.
Yeah, IRSE might have been involved.
I mean the other thing is. That it was involved.
Other teams like other teams. I think this was reported that
other teams for similarly the Dolphins.
Like we're able to come to an understanding with Taylor that
like if we trade for you, we'll agree to this sort of like
contract. And I don't think the reporting
was that Taylor was asking to like have the entire running
back contract be flipped on. It's like I think he was just
asking for, you know, top end money, but not like some
ridiculous CMC level insane running back contract.
I don't think it's that crazy that the you could argue that
the Colts should just kind of acquiesce somewhat the Taylor's
demands. I mean, I think not having.
Yeah, either trade him or give him the reasonable contract that
he wants. You're you're now putting
Anthony Richardson like a quarterback who already has a
ton of questions out on the field with no running threats
aside him in the backfield like that could be bad for his
longterm development to defense is just gonna be able to cue on
cue in on him even more now with Dion Jackson the backfield.
So. I don't know.
I think that really just butchered this whole thing.
Either should have traded him or come to an agreement.
I don't think he was asking for like an insane contract.
They really just seemed like it's a great point about what
he's asking for. Because because that makes me
feel, actually makes me feel worse about this whole
situation, that he wasn't asking for something outrageous because
it's like 1 less thing that can change, right?
If he was, if he was like in this position where he's asking
for this huge deal and you know, then through this trade request
it comes out that basically he's asking for too much and now
Taylor might have to reconsider. That's like, OK, Taylor
reconsiders and they come to an agreement.
But the fact that he's not is just, it's all in the cults just
like being Dicks. And it's like now I have to, I
have to count on the cults just magically decide to stop being
Dicks at some point this year. And I don't, I don't know why
they they would. I also, I mean, I wanted on the
record Le'veon Bell, his ADP August 31st, 2018, was the 2nd
overall pick in fantasy football.
Like, Yeah, people thought they knew.
People thought like. I took him in in one of the I
was like, traveling or something that summer, and I was very
tuned out from fantasy football. One of the few summers where I
wasn't paying attention, I just went into a draft.
I was the idiot that just took le'veon Bell second overall.
And then I started Googling him after like I saw the blurbs and
I'm like. Wait, he's he's not on the team.
Like, what did I do? You went stars and scrubs with
Le'veon Bell. I would start.
I showed up to the auction. I thought I knew what I was
doing and took Le'veon Bell. I ended up, I remember I had to
ship him off like mid season or no.
I think I shipped him off before week one for a package of like
Lamar Miller and Daniel Jones. Like it was so sad.
So I'm called that dude you you get that's sure.
Yeah, sure. Yeah.
Anyways, we're in a draft now. We we stuck into this thing with
only one other badge, I think. We're taking McCaffrey here,
right, guys? Yeah, yeah.
OK. I actually, I think I had my
last draft, my 1:50. I got Chase at 3:00, which yeah,
mine too. I wanted to do cuz I didn't.
I realized I'd never done the Tyree Kill Mark Andrews, Lamar
Jackson start and I got a three in my last draft and I was like
beautiful. And then Tyree went right
before, so I got a chase start instead.
Beautiful. So the way I've been I guess
like let's talk a little strategy here.
We're kind of just doing this without without talking at all.
We'll figure it out. I've the way I've been playing
the last couple of BBM drafts is I've been going with a lot of
hero RV or like 0 RV drafts to take advantage of sort of the
undrafted RV twos at the end of drafts.
Lock ups for my wide receivers, lock up and elite tight end
maybe an elite quarterback early on.
Are you guys? We'll see what comes to us
obviously. But are you kind of on?
On board with that general approach, trying to play this
through an anchor after build. Yeah, I mean I still would take
maybe take breeze at the 4.3 depending on how it works, but
yes. OK.
That 3-4 turn man is just the two three turn.
The 3-4 turn and the 4-5 turn are just they're just miserable,
miserable places to draft. I'm just gonna put a couple guys
in the queue that we wanna have our eyes on later.
Let me know if you disagree with any of these guys.
I can't fucking believe you drafted Alan Lazzard on ironic.
It's really cute. Gosh.
OK. OK.
This is the position I was in. You know, I had Garrett Wilson,
3 picks fast ADP value. It comes around me on the turn.
Rogers and Alan Lazard are both staring at me and what did I do?
I I said, hey, if I take Lazard here, I'll be able to push
Rogers around the turn, get him at a huge value.
That's what I did. I don't know why you guys are so
upset about that building. I have a I have a Pieces team
and I honestly wish you'd been sniped on Rogers.
I really wish you had to come back to us and explain why this
team has Al Lazard and Garrett Wilson and not Rogers.
Man and fucking Zeke, dude. It's like. 30 picks fast you
gotta take, you gotta take 30 picks 80 No, I actually think
it's fine. I think it was fine.
Zeke was fine. I don't know.
I guess I was just hating earlier on the show of like
taking these gross RV twos and you could take the undrafted
guys, but this was in a Rottweiler.
This was not a BBM where I did this like.
I want one Zeke share to hedge my full I have actually like 0
Zeke up until that point. So seems seems all right Davis
is still best Davis. Davis is never.
I mean you get like what, 176 or?
Something I'm I am at this stage of the season, I'm ideologically
drafting. So yeah, I'm pissed.
If you guys want to recant your shares in this team, you're
fully I thought. I thought about it, I thought
about it, but no, I don't. Okay.
So coming up to us here, we're gonna get a chance at one of the
Smith Ridley T guys. Let's see what this drafter
does. I assume we're taking one of the
wide receivers here, unless someone wants to argue for
Andrews, I guess. What do you guys think?
No, cuz it's this version of the team is worse than the Justin
Jefferson, Mark Andrews from our Jackson teams.
Yeah, in my opinion. Ohh well we don't have that
choice. So I this is where I'd be.
I'm either Devonta to try to get Hertz or we play do Calvin
Ridley. What do you guys?
Say correct Devonta. I almost always go devonta to go
with. Hertz Yeah, let's let's go.
For the and then it and then you and then you tilt when the the
team that should not take deal nerds.
It takes jail, yeah. It works about 40% of the time,
yeah. This this Cameron guy is gonna
take Mahomes and then Hertz. I can already.
I can already see it coming. I saw an Allen Burrough in the
last draft and I had I had Jamar, Chase and Teague.
Someone went Allen Burrough. The only thing is like, you're
gonna be checking your leagues in like Week 13 and you're gonna
see a team that took Hertz and Mahomes.
They have the same bye week too. You're gonna see a team.
In your league, that took those two guys and is like crushing
you and advancing out of the pod and it's fine.
Yeah, that's fine. This shit is so stupid.
Why do we play this game? But then they take.
But then they take Ryan Tannehill in around 18 to tie
the room together. You can't even take Jimmy
Garoppolo cuz he also has a Week 13 by.
So we'll see what you know that it's been a long summer.
I did. I did the full Week 17.
My my home, my home league draft was this weekend.
We always go back to Kansas City and do all of our stuff and we
take tea. Yeah, if this guy takes tea, I'd
probably be. I don't know, Jacobs.
I can see arguments. For Jacobs Allen, I would take
Debo. I'm, I'm Metcalf over over Debo.
Have fun staying, Have fun staying poor.
I I've been, I've been, I've been so jsn pilled.
I was like so ambivalent on jsn I've been full of jsn pilled.
Wait, you told me have fun staying poor when I didn't have
Metcalf. Now it's have fun staying poor
when you do. OK, it's called.
It's called being. My boat here is actually
probably Josh. It's Josh Allen.
Let's do, I'll probably take Allen here and try to set up
some bills backdoor. So that's doing a thing, yeah.
I like it. Well, we can get we can get
Deonce Hardy. Yeah.
You can get Knox. Knox is still free.
I like Knoxitan Party's free. Hang on, I just.
I just love the idea of going around calling people and
selling people. Have fun staying poor with no
ideological consistency. This is called being Bayesian.
That's. Strong, strong opinions, strong
opinions, Weakly held. Ever heard of it?
Oh man, I have strong opinions about your financial position,
but weekly help. I mean, I thought the Metcalf
thesis was good, but the Metcalf thesis implies that JSN is not
the guy you. Need.
I don't know about that, so this is.
I think the Metcalf thesis is just. 6 Four 240 pound wide
receiver scores 15 touchdowns, and that's not.
It's not 2015 anymore man, we've moved on.
Our wide receivers are five £880 and they they got the quick
twitch muscle. I don't know.
So like Metcalf though, that that was like his thing coming
out of college. Everyone's like, oh, he's kind
of A1 dimensional wide receiver. He's just big and fast, blah,
blah, blah. The wide receiver film Bros are
telling us that Metcalf can run a full route tree he's really
developed the past couple years. Like Harmon.
Those guys love what he can do. I think he actually just ran bad
on like really good opportunity last year.
I think like Hayden Smothers have pointed out, he really
underperformed in touchdowns. I don't buy that DK Metcalf he.
Led the league in end zone targets.
Yeah, he's fucking huge. Like, I think that's the thing.
Like, I get the Metcalf faders argument.
It's like you're paying a high price when JSN and Lockett are
still there. But.
Then he's not leaving the field in two wide receiver sets for
JSS. Damn it.
It totally makes sense. It totally makes sense that
you're Metcalf guy because DK Metcalf is the running back of
elite wide receivers like that is.
And I I didn't one of my friends made that point to me this year
because of course the guy who took Naji Harris and our league
drafted DK Metcalf, he's always like the physique drafter, the
not like whoever the deadest dead zone running back is.
This guy in our league always takes him.
And he had this giant. Part on for DK Metcalf and we
were like, yeah, you just like him because he is the running
back of wide receivers and it's so it's so accurate.
He really is. Obviously I like DK Metcalf,
he's awesome, but I have just been JSN filled.
Yeah, I think he's just been. He's been overpriced all summer.
But like, in the order of wide receivers, are you just saying
overpriced relative to other positions or other wide
receivers that you think should other wide receivers?
Yeah. I would take, I would take Debo
over him, but I think positionally he's ranked
appropriately. Debo is the running back of wide
receivers. If you guys are getting lit out,
yeah. Literally, yes.
Debo. Debo is in these formats where
all the money is concentrated at the top and having fine weekly
floors doesn't matter. Ibo is such a guy you want
because he could be the fantasy point over expectation.
God. I mean, he could lead fantasy
football and fantasy points over expectation and has done so
before. Yeah, yeah, I just Metcalf, I
don't think is like a true elite receiver.
I think he's a good receiver, but he's he's on a team that's
not gonna have a ton of passing attempts and just added a really
good receiver as a third receiver and Locket showed no
signs of falling off. So yeah, you could get there on
touchdowns, but like, that's my bet in the third round.
Yeah, so here, let's, let's go back to the conversation.
But here you guys get with Drake London.
He would be my for sure pick Here.
Yeah, like a lot. But OK.
Like Drake London. Like Drake London could have 30%
target share in a true breakout season.
Like. 30% target share, 84 targets.
Yeah, well that's that's actually the kind of the crazy
thing is that like they over the last four games with rhetoric
quarterback, they weren't like super, super run heavy.
Yeah, yeah. The bet Catholics saw, I mean he
saw 141 targets last year. Like that's a shit ton.
I don't know. I feel like people have this
misconception. Maybe it's CUZ the raw stats
don't look that good but. Out of JSN man.
I mean, I know, but you don't think the pass attempts are
gonna like they're gonna run way more free wide receiver sets.
I think this pass attempts are gonna spike massively in Seattle
like last year. They literally had to put up
like what D Eskridge and Marquis Goodwin to get free wide
receiver sets. They're not gonna turn into
some. Yeah, but don't you think Pete
Carroll just wants to? Don't you think he wants to just
own Russell Wilson and like lead the league in pass attempts just
to prove a point? That could be kind of funny bit,
though. No?
I think Pete Carroll wants to have a Pete Carroll team.
I think he wants to have a balanced team, like not there.
He showed a different gear last year, but I don't think they're
gonna go like. OK, yeah, let's talk through
this. I would probably be Kirk here,
unless you wanted. Kirk, Kirk or Walker went, Yeah,
Kirk. Kirk Underwater receivers.
Yeah, we're just taking. Dude, this dude fucking drives
Zeke. He drafts Lazard and then he
puts Nazi Harris on the queue. I mean, are you just doing bits?
Are you? Are you reverse ideological
drafting? I hope we can also no, I'm just
too late. Guys, nausea 51 isn't isn't
horrible. You've not taken nausea in the
fifth round. Because if Nazi is a bad pick at
40, the context doesn't change it he If nausea Harris or Cam
makers, it's the IT. They're they're bad.
They're bad. Was OK in the 5th, but
everything, all the information we got in this summer makes me
even squeamish there. Yeah, fair.
I mean, I would mostly take her. Like, I probably randomize that
selection and take nausei like, I think I have like 2% nausea
this year and it is in this spot me falls the 5th.
I get the nausea. I'm like super low in nausea.
Like had zero percent of him for a very long time.
I just think. At some point, like I'm just not
super ideological about going 0 percent on guys like I I'll get
to one 2% even on guys that I I absolutely hate.
So that that's where that's coming from.
But I get it. I like, I like going with Kirk
there. He's he's a good pick.
Yeah, Yeah, I think we screwed up that pick.
But I'll explain why later. It wasn't.
It wasn't cuz I wanted Naji. He.
Did want? Yeah, I can't maybe know where
you're going with that, but. We'll see.
Taylor's still on the board here.
This is actually in my Bbm's. Maybe it's just a small sample
for me, but I have been seeing him get scooped up at this
4180P. This is one of the farthest I've
seen him slide. I guess at some point would
maybe have to have the discussion with him at 75, maybe
70. I'm still a little squeamish
there to be honest, but I think you can at that.
That's the point where you can start to make the argument for
me 75. I pick 40 as ADP.
I'm like, so, so far out of that.
Yeah. I'm very out at that.
Yeah. Let's look at the drafters here.
The one other red badge in the room scoops up 3 running backs
early and Barkley, Pollard and Aaron Jones reaches on Addison.
And Aaron Jones. Aaron Jones feels like one of
the he just like I just it never occurs to me to take him really.
So here's that Aaron Jones means that's like, one of the worst
picks. Kenneth Walker's range is
Kenneth Walker's I Kenneth Walker.
I think we might look back on this season and be like, what
were we doing? Being afraid of Zach Charbonnay
for Kenneth Walker, like Kenneth Walker is like, so such a home
run hitter and. I mean, look, if he go, what do
you have like 9 targets all of last season or something?
Like guys can improve and get better.
Like if he got like kind of like Henry, actually, he was a
horrendous receiving prospect. Though was like, was Gabe Davis
the guy who you were thinking of, Pat?
Yeah, Gabe Davis. We should have taken Gabe Davis
over Kirk. That was.
No, we're gonna take, we're gonna take Kincaid and Hardy.
That's that's actually why I think reaching for Gabe Davis is
is sharp because otherwise you end up taking Kincaid who's like
the worst pick. On the on the I don't want to
force it's a it's a ridiculous price we're paying for Kincaid.
He's he's flipping Jokeu right now.
It's, it's. You gotta give up.
You gotta give up the ghost, Gretch.
Gretch actually wrote this great post the other day on Sub Stack
about like why we have to stop being afraid or stop like stop
being afraid of rookies just being stars.
And Reeves did. Reeves did a bunch of research
on rookie tight ends and basically found like per snap.
They were all just in line with with where they were drafted.
It's just some of them didn't get the snaps and.
Yeah, this. That's The thing is those guys,
those guys are just covering their asses.
I'm out here saying guy the, the steamy tight end who everyone
thinks is breaking out, I'm gonna fade him.
And if it's if it's hurting me, it's hurting me.
I I have, I have capitulated slightly and drafted him
occasionally, but he's not a good pick at this price.
He just isn't. Yeah.
So I think we should take pickets here pretty clearly.
Are you guys on board with that 10 picks ATP value?
Yeah, would have been nice to have a chance of JSN coming back
around, but that seems like the pick so.
We're setting up for a good Zeke correlation on this team too.
Yeah, a couple things I wanna talk through.
So on the Davis, the research you pointed out by Reeves where
this is something we talked about I think early in the
offseason where that rookie tight end and give credit to
Liam here, he's talked about this as well.
The rookie tight ends aren't good in fantasy.
Take the mechanism for how that happens is that there's a
veteran guy on the team that blocks the player from playing
snaps. Now in this year, you have to be
really careful for the rookie tight ends and looking at does
that player exist on the team and that's whether you should
decide or not whether to buy in that narrative.
And freaking Kate, it's really tough, right?
Because I think Dawson Knox pretty clearly blocks him from
playing in 11 personnel. Kincaid.
He had a good preseason, but he was getting absolutely blown up
in blocking reps against defensive lineman.
Like, I think Knox blocks him from that.
So the question is, how much of this, like 11.5 personnel do the
Bills play with both Knox and Kincaid on the field the same
time? If you think that's their base
offense are gonna play that a ton, I think Kincaid can.
Well, one of the Adp's has to be wrong.
Either Kincaid's or Hardy's has to be Hardy's is wrong.
Hardy is. I think Hardy is is a Hardy.
I actually. I'm actually looking at his
Wikipedia page right now. He is way better than I
remembered. He played Hardy's.
Hardy's good, He's good. He's super fast.
So let's let's let's talk through this guys quickly.
I do think if we're going with the More Heroes 0 RB getting OK
that I would be Goddard here cuz we have to fonta kind of like.
Betting I would actually. I would actually take.
I would take Kyle Pitts if this was my team.
I'm fine with. I'm fine with Goddard.
I don't mind doing the Eagles thing.
OK. I think that I'd be on Goddard
here too, so. Tits gives us the Round 18
quarterback stack so we don't have to fuck with it.
I just this was a way for us to not have to take Dalton Kincaid
by sneaking this Dallas Goddard well.
Yeah, no, we still, we still need, we still need to take
Kincaid. What we're gonna have, we're
gonna, well, it's a it's actually, the way I look at it
is we can take Kincaid now and have him do what he's gonna do,
which is very little for most of the year, and then score some
touchdowns in the playoffs, which is how Liam's gonna get
there and shove it down my throat on this stupid fucking
take. Yeah, I do think it's
interesting. Like the Josh Allen drafter
again, I'm not one of these people that thinks focusing on
uniqueness matters that much in these things, but I do think
just betting on the Eagles offense being awesome when you
don't have Hertz is kind of tough to do.
But you can do it when you have Josh fucking at like the Eagles
can smash and the Bills can smash and we can be in a great
position. With I do like that
conceptually, taking the teammates of the other elite
quarterbacks when you have the elite quarterback, it.
Just exactly. Just get just get you into weird
parts of the game tree. I I do agree with that 100%.
Because if we were throwing out sort of a limp Dick quarterback
trio of like Brock Purdy, you know, Desmond Ritter and.
Whatever Kenny pick it. I would not do this because then
it's so thin that we can compete with like an Eagles smash week.
But when we have Josh Allen, I think we we totally can.
And if we can totally can with Josh Allen running in like 2,
yeah, we need. To put it put, it puts you in a
spot where maybe Diggs has like 4 catches and Gabe Davis only
scores like 9 points or whatever, cuz Josh Allen went
new as a rusher. Yeah, I I mean, I I don't think
it's optimal. Like I don't think that's the
best strategy you could do. But I do think it's a fine part.
Fine thing to do. We'll get our bill stacks.
I think we probably should take him.
Like, yeah, Kincaid. I mean, Kincaid's not totally
out of play. If he falls past, ADP Knox is
very much in. We're taking Kincaid ahead of
ADP. Yeah, we're taking Kincaid
ahead. We need the correlation.
We do. We need.
We need the correlation. Do it.
But why? I mean you can get correlation.
With hard, you literally, you literally do need it.
We could take both of them and then we can get a hard bolt.
OK, I mean. It's touchdown, man.
It's it's ultimately this is a it's a Week 17 tournament.
This is a Week 17 tournament. We need these Touchdown
partners. I I don't hate the Kincaid
Goddard pairing at tight end and being done.
I think that's that's totally fine structurally.
But are you guys saying a pick 99, we take him cuz I'm kind of
out on like I think we're gonna have what's his 80P, it's 17,
it's 117. So we'll but yeah, we'll take
him in the 10th. I'm not taking on the 9th.
Yeah. I mean stand for.
Yeah, Let's see what else is in the night.
If there's anything I like in the night, I think we should do.
It. I know that's what I'm saying.
It's like, I mean, come on, Knox is gonna run.
I mean, maybe it's not gonna run more routes, but in any given
week, I don't think Knox first Kincaid is like that crazy of a
discrepancy that we should reach for for Kincaid when we still
have the Knox and the hard. Well, the other thing, So I've
wrote about tight ends and this offseason and it was kind of
shocking, like how many of their touchdowns come on play action
and that's why the run blocking stuff matters.
If he's getting blown up and run blocking and they're doing play
action stuff around the goal line, then it's Knox.
Who might be the guy who gets there on touchdowns.
You know, the Knox might be the guy who scores that Week 16
touchdown. Josh Josh Allen can also.
I mean, Josh Allen can also throw 50 touchdowns.
Like they can both score 8. That's that's.
True. That's like that's like very
firmly in the range. That's wild pits.
Yeah, I hope pits might come all the way around to us, which
would be wild, I think. What it looks like that would
be, that would be that would be a podium pick.
That would be a podium pick cuz also so we can stop talking
about Kincaid. Yeah.
And we also have London, which I
actually like them, correlated at these prices.
No, I actually hate it. I actually.
There we go. I actually hate taking pits in
London together. On the same team.
Oh God. Rashad Fucking White.
Sean White, I think is the good pick here.
I would be Connor over white, but I'll.
I would take, I would take Brian Robinson because he's on the 0
RB list, but structurally running back we do need one, I
think White over Robinson. OK.
You haven't been, you haven't been Sean Tucker pilled.
I mean, I think Sean Tucker could, you know, but like I take
and I've taken him some in the last round, but like they've
really given no indication that White's at risk of losing the
job to Tucker. I just feel like white verse
guys on the 0 running back list to be.
Out everyone hates. Everyone hates James Connor and
I kind of get it but but white verse Connors at least like.
I think there's outs. The Cardinals having good
quarterback play at the end of the year if Kyler comes back.
I know, I know there's a lot of conversations around that
there's some uncertainty. But like the Cardinals starting
running back at the end of the year, I think is going to be way
more valuable than. You know Rashad White, he's
gonna be, you know, healthy scratch on game days for Sean
Tucker and Keyshawn Bond. So I think, I think Connor could
be more valuable there. It's possible for sure, but I
just think, you know, 12 picks past ADP or whatever and you're
getting a starting running back who catches passes in his enter.
Of the second year? No, that's it.
That's kind of a no brainer, you know?
That's totally there that it's open.
Levitan just tweeted that the. Falcons beat writers Josh
Kendall said that he thinks Pitts is gonna be 4th on the
Falcons and targets. So I think we should go Bateman
or Burks here. Burks Burks is better for
setting up a secondary stack if we care about that, but it's
like the same bet. I I don't I kind of randomize
these do we have I do a lot of Bateman, but we don't have any
like reason to be on Bateman here.
That's fair, Yeah. We're strong at wide receiver.
Burks is back practicing. Yeah.
I think that's like a true toss up on that one.
I think those are those are the two best picks in that range by
far. It's crazy, the drop of the wide
receiver after those 2GO you go from Bateman and Burks, which I
feel so good about to like Dobbs, Odell, Boyd, Juju, like
we're we're lucky to get one of those guys coming around.
OK. So through 9 rounds, pretty
balanced build. We're drafting a good team here.
This is a very, very good team. This this gives us flexibility
to do a lot of different things. This is a team that could be A7
wide receiver team. This is still a team that could
be A5 running back team or like a six or seven even if we really
wait on it. It's a lot of flexibility here,
so this will be interesting. I'm starting to get.
I'm starting to get Kyle Pitts. Tbgb's just just so bad.
The The beat writers The beat who?
Who would even be third in the pecking order if it's not?
If it's not. So London and Bijon, Sure,
whatever. But who would?
Who could possibly get more targets on that roster than cow
pits? What?
What could that beat writer mean?
He thinks Mac Hollins is going to get more than Kyle Pitts.
So wait, did he say the beat writer said he could be third in
targets? This is the This is the full
blurb from Josh Kendall, who is the Atlanta Falcons beat writer.
Where should I draft Kyle Pitts in fantasy?
Not high unless you like to live dangerously.
For starters, pits is coming off an injury.
Head coach Arthur Smith said last year the Pits was a better
overall player than he was as a rookie.
What Smith means is that pits could be used in more places
that didn't necessarily lead to targets.
That's good for the Falcons, bad for fantasy.
I don't see pits being any higher than fourth on this team
and targets. Plus, he still must prove he's
healthy after last season's surgery, I guess.
I guess the third is Patterson. So the third I you know what
actually how pits can still pay off.
With 80 targets if he scores but but that, it's like now I'm
coping, I'm coping now. That I I can't.
That is such a pessimistic from the beat reporter saying 4th and
because OK, that means yeah, Bijon.
He does. He has to mean Patterson.
Yeah, but even just saying third, would it be bad?
Is that like Bijon being a lock to out target pits would be
really bad because how many targets is Bijon gonna have?
Not like we're hoping what 100 plus targets for pits like I
don't think Bijon's getting to 100 targets, so.
Man, that's that's not what you want to hear.
It's a wild report. That is, that is, almost all.
These beats are terrible at projections.
Yeah, yeah. I don't really put too much
weight in that. I put more weight, honestly in
the preseason usage, the the injury concerns.
That's why I'm hesitant on pits this year.
I don't put a ton of weight in that.
But this is, this is what is true.
Week 1, Lock in that Matt Collins is gonna have a higher
route rate than Kyle Pitts. I think you go for the Yeah,
yeah. Yeah, and so.
That's the thing, right? Like Matt Collins never gets
drafted in these. There's gonna be a lot of weeks
this year where Matt Collins out targets Kyle Pitts.
I'm not saying anything, but he doesn't have tight
intelligibility. I know.
I'm just saying like. Well, this was we are now we are
now making the Erst Gerald argument for Kyle Pitts.
Which fuck fuck can I get a do over underdog?
Can you just? Can I refund my 1:50 and
actually just do this over again?
Can I just start over with three days left to go?
All right, put them in the queue, but whatever the opposite
of roll the clip is, get ready. Get ready to do the opposite of
rolling the clip? Yeah, what's the opposite of run
to the podium? Yeah, slink away.
We're slinking away after making this selection all.
Right, considered Al Mazard here week, Week 15.
He's playing against the the Eagles, I think.
What do you guys think here? Putting Dude, dude puts Lazard
and Odell Beckham in the queue. I mean, find someone you're like
a little kid you gotta go like over to like the the relative
that you don't really know and you just gotta your mom's, like,
pulling you over. Yeah.
So this. I mean the the only thing I
consider here is the Warren pick is pretty nice.
Just taken, dude. Just just do it.
Put me through this. Remember we're gonna take we're
gonna take a chain with the next pick and then our team is is so
fun. We got our we got our second
running back 30 spots after Rashad White.
I am like Crane. I went back and watched some a
chain in college just cuz I like watched a lot of Texas A and M
but. The way they used him is so
goddamn encouraging. Like a lot of running backs his
size in college. It's all like they post these
crazy video game numbers, but you go back and watch and it was
all No one's near them. They get the ball in acres of
space. A linebacker doesn't even have a
chance to see them. The chain of Texas A and M is
just like OK we're playing against Alabama just run right
between the tackles just like we're wait wait like just get
after it you know like it's it was just like you are a real
running back he handled. So like we the season I always
remember is the Phillip Lindsay one where where that's kind of
how like Blair Andrews got turned on him.
A small running back but really high dominator rating 93% of the
running back touches for an SEC team in 2022.
I mean that is. If that I I tweeted this today.
If he was 206 pounds, I think he would be going in the sixth
round of drafts. Honestly, I really do, right?
Yeah. So let's talk through these
running backs. I would probably have them
ranked in this order. We do not need week one points
if we. If we we need, we need or no, I
think. A chain?
A chain for me? You guys are both on a chain.
OK, I'd be big to be here, but. That seems reasonable.
Can we just. I just we need to before we move
on. Sam put Elijah Mitchell in the
queue on a Christian McCaffrey team.
It's actually fine. I actually think that's
completely fine. This is worse than the Lazar
thing. You guys are not.
We're hand cucking in the 11th round.
No, no. I was mindlessly going through
the running backs I liked. I wasn't.
I wasn't thinking. The best ball data.
The best ball data on the hand cucking.
The data that we do have is overwhelmingly good for advance
rate. Hand cooking is probably good,
but I don't know about this. Cannot be McCaffrey the 103 to
take a guy in the 11th. There's no way that that can be.
Good, I actually hear me out. I actually think it's maybe
optimal for McCaffrey specifically because if this
stuff is true about. Them, like, there was that
report last week about them resting, and we're giving him
more time off than they did the year before.
And Jordan Mason and TDP have been super.
You know, they just like incredibly average in this
preseason. I I actually think you might get
games where you're 1, the 49ers run so much, you might be
getting points from both of them, and then, I mean, they're
going to be games where they're up 20 points or whatever.
The Rams games. I mean, you think you think
Elijah Mitchell might get 18 carries in the second-half
against the Rams. I it makes.
That stuff can happen, but you're paying so much for
McCaffrey, like you're kind of already losing.
So I wouldn't do it. I wouldn't do it over a chain or
Bigsby. But Jamal Williams versus Elijah
Mitchell in this spot, I mean, you could talk me into it.
If you fell like a full round past ADP, I would definitely
consider it. I think that the thing that's
also interesting, Pat, is our specific build.
If we wouldn't like, you know, bimodal running back or whatever
we're calling it, I would not want Mitchell as just like our
4th running back on a McCaffrey team.
But this is a McCaffrey team where we're gonna have what,
five, maybe 6 running backs. I think at that point you can
talk me into it more where Mitchell can contribute as just
like an RV2IN some weeks where White and a chain bust, like,
yeah. I think it has to be after ADP
for sure, but I'm not super ideological about the
handcucking. I'll do it.
I think also that. I'm not that ideological about
it either. I just like I take 2 Eagles
running backs a fair amount. Like I'll take, I'll take Swift
and Penny. Swift and Penny, yeah, I'll take
and I take. I take gain well with both of
them. Yeah, exactly.
I'll take any combination of two Eagles running backs.
I'll take Herbert and Rochon together.
I'll take a chain and moster like I don't.
I'm not all that ideological about.
It's just, it's just a rebuke of.
It's just a rebuke of the price of the of the the price of the
combined price. Yes, we've.
Made a massive bet on Christian McCaffrey on this team.
Yeah, yeah. I think we're all against that.
Yeah. I mean, I, I do agree.
The one thing I would say, and this is very like 2020 fantasy
before we even knew anything though, is it's like, let me
tell you a story. Christian McCaffrey misses Week
15. You have Elijah Mitchell.
Elijah Mitchell scores 27 fantasy points.
You're the only one with McCaffrey in the semifinal.
Then you're the only one with McCaffrey in the final.
That that I mean, and that is very like three years ago.
We know better than that now, but still.
Yeah, yeah. I think there's some like you
having players that are like very inversely correlated to
each other on a weekly basis. It's kind of interesting at the
running back position, right? Cuz like.
You want that effect where like if one of your guys bust the
other guy is going to be awesome.
Like that's kind of an interesting thing.
But anyways, Algeer here I think is interesting.
Algeer. Algeer I actually think
correlates really well with Pitts in London because it means
like the a lot of the scenarios where Algiers crushing means
that Bijan is injured, probably either injured or doesn't have
the role, yeah. The offense is good.
Like we just want the Atlanta offense to be.
Good, right? Like for Algier to pay off, you
need, you probably need a Bijan injury, but you just want
Atlanta to be firing in all cylinders.
So I think that's like that. I really do like that running
back wide receiver correlation there.
Yeah, I mean, if they're scoring points, both guys are paying
off. Yeah, yeah.
So our next pick, we do have a chance at the picket stack if we
want to be done at quarterback. We have plenty of outs, though
with Burks and we're taking Ridder.
Now we're taking Ridder. Yeah, so we could I I like the
Mingo pick at this price. Let's see what else.
If you wanna scroll farther, these are probably the other
wide receivers. This is.
This is right about the range where I just start.
This is about the range where I just start scrolling the guys I
like. Yeah, I mean, I actually, when
the top of the queue is Higbee, Thelin, Pickett, Zeke, I'm just
like, yeah, it doesn't matter anymore.
I can just take whoever I want. So we have the mini Carolina
Jacksonville thing with Mingo. He is the I think I would say
Spears or Mingo. I don't care which one.
Let's do mango. I think we can wait.
We can push the RV5, right? Yeah.
I think we can push the RV5, so Mingo is one of the losers.
I took in the ADB value game. I want that on record that,
yeah, that feels that feels unfair.
Should have gotten paid off on that.
The market like what do we like? Chark is injured already and
then Bryce Young looks pretty good.
In the preseason it was unfortunately Adam feeling
targets, not Mingo targets, but I think Bryce Young's be able to
play a little bit. I think Mingo's like pretty
clearly the favorite to be the leader in targets by the end of
the season. So yeah, I get that his prospect
profile is not perfect. He was injured.
There's some weird stuff going on.
He's a freak athlete, theoretically a really good yak
guy. His target competition is
absolute dust. I don't get why he's hovered at
this 150 range all off season. I think he's my highest exposure
wide receiver, actually. I've been hammering him.
Mingo. Yeah.
He's a smash. He's an absolute smash.
I don't understand why there was never any hype for him, cuz he's
a shitty prospect. You know he was not a great
prospect, you know. You know what's funny is my
highest exposure wide receiver is also a shitty prospect who is
just going to get playing time on a shitty team.
Michael Wilson is my highest drafted wide receiver.
What a fucking heel turn for me on Michael Wilson to go from
Greg George, Short King Summer to my most drafted wide
receiver. But my one of my other most
drafted wide receivers. One of my other most drafted
wide receivers is another bad, bad prospects but on a good
team. Brushy rice.
So I I get it. I I would be, I would be
sneaking out of both sides of my mouth if I was like, oh, you
gotta scoop up Rashi Rice and and and Michael Wilson, but you
can't. And look, I think Mingo, Mingo
was a better prospect than both of those guys.
You know he's when you look for, I think when you look at these
wide receiver prospects like there are ways.
I think it was too, yeah. There's It's like, how can this
guy kind of overcome the red flags?
And Mingo has size and elite athleticism.
Yeah, but he's. So kind of the better version.
Wilson has both of those. Yeah, but but we went to it.
Actually, he went to. It's not elite.
He went to an SEC school. It is different.
Yeah, yeah, Big time program.
He flashed a little bit. He's got this yards after catch
skill set that the team's really excited about.
Playing him, it sounds like at the Z, which is going to be, you
know, giving him routes, they're going to be conducive to yards
after catch not making him like the big bodied X deep threat
guy. They're gonna they're gonna be
getting him on stuff that's a little bit more interesting
where he can utilize that athleticism post catch.
Me and and Rice are just so goddamn lucky that they declared
the year they declared when every other wide receiver was
short. They like these are we're
talking about the most round six wide receiver prospect profiles
of all time, but they both got huge draft capital just because
their bodies were larger than the other wide receivers in
their class. Yeah, I mean, Bingo had an
unreal athletic profile. I think he was like a 9.9 on the
Ras score. Like, yeah, I mean, he's a big
dude and he ran A4. He's definitely a boom.
He definitely fills into the boom, bust profile of wide
receivers for sure, But I just think the how is he not gonna
get routes on this team? That's where I'm like the floor
seems pretty safe. He's not gonna not be playing
unless he's injured. I've never seen this before, but
Jonathan Mingo's wrote of his box score scout.
I've never heard of a single one of the other guys who are in his
Sims. I've never heard of Jamal Custis
or Dantavia Bogan or Terrence Tolliver.
I do not know who these. Guys are honest to God.
This is where I take Hubbard. I just take Hubbard here.
So yeah, this is where I started looking at Clyde.
But we actually don't need we don't need Clyde.
I would take Alec Pierce over over these other receivers.
You don't think DPJ is just the two wide receiver set starter
and? Cleveland.
Yeah. OK.
I I'd be OK with him. Are you OK?
I would probably just take cover to be honest.
These these are not a single one of these guys I've ever taken.
Pierce, I guess with Richardson, these are, these are these guys
just don't even show up preloaded in my in.
My Yeah, they're not in my. I'm trying to Isaiah Hodgins.
Dude, put a fucking star on it. I would.
I would take Wandell straight up over Isaiah Hodgins.
We're not taking. I let you guys get Rashad.
We're not taking Wandell on this team.
I'll let you take anyone else. Besides, I didn't want Rashad
White. I don't like Rashad White.
I'm. I've been Tucker filled.
We should probably get it running back on the.
Here. Sorry, go ahead, Pat.
OK, good the sue and pushed back on the idea that Rice was a
worse prospect than Mango. With Rice's prospect profile
doesn't include that he was on the Chiefs, that's that's not
part of his prospect. See, this guy saw me put Parker
in the queue and he said I gotta scoop him up at 168.
He he knew I was gonna try to. Let's take let's take Ty
Chandler here or Hubbard. We honestly probably should,
yeah, we probably should have taken taking Parker for the
Bills. Correlation there actually
probably would have been the play, as gross as it is.
Oh well. Yeah, Hubbard.
If Hubbard goes any of these other running, I think we can
just scroll at running back here.
I don't want to take Singletary. I don't really want to take Jeff
Wilson. All right, We don't even have to
have that conversation. Let's walk in, Hubbard.
Oh, OK. Once I put in his draft slot, I
get Mahabin Massacoy, Chase Claypool, Cody Latimer, Brian
Rabisky and Josh Huff. So we're back on track.
I've heard of those guys, at least.
I remember Brian Rubinski. I actually haven't, I actually
have not looked at this for Michael Wilson.
I wonder if I'll get if anyone close comps to Michael Wilson.
Trying to think who might pop up for Michael Wilson.
I'll tell you. I'll tell you if any when it
when it populates, I'll give you a chance to guess.
Cody Latimer would have been a good guess for Michael Wilson.
Yeah, OK, Michael Wilson. What was his?
What was his draft slot? Draft slot?
94th overall? All right, it's populating that
without draft, without draft slot, there was none of none of
them. Yeah.
Which is a good sign that a player was probably overdrafted
if if the draft positioning is needed to generate any comps,
actually. OK, there are there are some
good. There are some good ones here.
For more Michael Wilson. There's there's one.
I'll give you a hint, You'll get it immediately.
This guy went to the same school as him and they were both
selected with the same pick in the NFL draft.
They were both picked 94 overall.
What? Is Stanford.
Stanford haven't been very it's not it's not our fega.
It's not our fega Whiteside. I thought he was USC.
No. Our Sega white side was Stanford
because he scored 14% of the team's no 14% of Jjr.
Sega whitesides final season targets were touchdowns because
he only got targeted like 43 times.
He came into Stanford. It's it's it's shocking because
we don't remember him this way. But it's Ty Montgomery we don't
remember. Ty Montgomery being We don't
remember Ty Montgomery being big because Ty Montgomery is small
for a running back, but he's huge for a wide receiver.
That's interesting. I was gonna get my guess was
gonna be Dante Pettis Austin too small.
Austin OK Pettis, partial Chris, Josh Palmer and actually.
Yeah, that's a good one. Riley Riley Cooper and Deshawn
Hamilton are two. That totally makes sense to me
now. Cooper ended up out of the NFL
because he's a bad person. But Deshawn Hamilton I actually
kind of liked back in the day. He just he couldn't say healthy,
but he earned a bunch of targets as a rookie when he got starting
time. Josh Palmer feels very kind of
accurate like that is that is like that would be for for my
the size of my Michael Wilson bags.
Josh Palmer would be a win at this point, I think.
It'd be a win, yeah, because it's.
That's all Palmer was, he gets. Palmer was a shitty prospect.
Actually, Palmer was not a good prospect.
But he was a third round pick. And it was kind of similar
because the film, I don't know the film guys like Palmer, the
film guys liked him, but they but and the analytics guys
didn't like him and everyone blamed it on the school.
Yeah, all right. So at our next pick, we can lock
up one of our quarterback stacks.
We're gonna have either Tannehill, Bryce Young or.
I think will be the three options there.
Any thoughts on that debate in a Josh Allen team?
Why? Do we need to do it this round?
Why don't we? Well, because the quarterbacks
go. The quarterback.
I have noticed this the last couple days.
Like if Stafford goes, that's your Canary in the coal mine.
Because there's no reason to take Stafford right now.
That you and I mean. Yeah, that.
That's The thing is like, I just don't want to risk.
Like this guy only has one quarterback.
I just think it's kind of playing it cute to risk.
Yeah, don't. Do you wanna?
Do you want to debase yourself by taking?
Do we want to have to take, like, Strout?
Yeah. Jimmy Garoppolo or Kyler on sax.
I think we should. I I mean, we're also gonna be
taking Deontay Hardy in this team.
No one's gonna take this that guy either.
So, Ritter, what do you think? Ritter?
I like Ritter here. OK, yeah, let's take Ritter
loves Ritter. Yeah, I feel like they both.
I was trying to think through like we kind of just want a guy
who's going to be starting and not getting benched.
But you can make arguments for both getting benched.
Well, if Ritter, if Ritter gets benched, I forget who made this
point. I think it was Peter.
But that if Ritter gets benched, he's not going to get benched
quickly. It's going to be a lot of bad
games and like, you know, six really bad games, five really
bad games, four really bad games that your fourth round, Drake
London team is having fun staying poor if Ridder gets
benched. So how I played your
structurally guys is one more wide receiver and one more
running back. I think given we waited so long
to take our RV2, I don't think this team needs 9 wide receivers
since we got I agree trail on Burks is a wide receiver 5 here.
So I'd take Hardy here, cuz I just don't wanna get sniped on
that correlation piece and then we'll just see what.
Rose running back falls to us. I kind of wanted to.
Take party over Ritter, to be completely honest.
Just because. OK, have the Tannehill backstop.
Yeah. So I definitely would like to
take Hardy here. Yeah, I think maybe a third
tight end is also in play. Yeah, it's in play.
I was. I was thinking Knox would have
been interesting too. We maybe should have considered
that I take, I take those guys together, yeah, I take, I take
Knox and I take Knox and Kincaid together, which is like the
ultimate handcuck. I think though structurally like
we spent two pretty high capital side end picks.
That's the one thing I cannot have work.
If Knox and and Kincaid is what you need, I legit might like
close down legendary upside and like move to top.
That Pat's gonna become Pat's gonna become an insurance
salesman. If not, no kincaider on the
winning. It's just like you're gonna have
to, like you're gonna have to find me like 20 years from now,
you I'm gonna have a beard. It's always be like.
Pat find me on vacation on some random island.
Can you can you pull up one of these comments from the chat.
Can you pull up the Kyron is your upside late running back
play fundamental misunderstanding of what Kyron
Williams is. Kyron Williams is not an upside
play in any way. He is an unathletic.
You're the most he is Miles Gaskin.
He is Clyde Edwards Lair. He is what Kyron Williams is, is
if on a Breeze team, on a jumante team, on a Jonathan
Taylor team, you just need a guy who is going to be active and
playing in games for the first month, the first month of the
season and can maybe get, you know 10111213 points.
Kyron is is not. Sean Tucker is an upside running
back play Kiante Ingram. I think you could argue is isn't
yes. Yeah, he's a We can't.
We can't adjust these rosters ever.
All the points need to be drafted.
Zamir White Much better upside play.
Yeah, Damir White a better. Which on this build, I think you
can kind of argue what we need honestly.
Like we're kind of a little bit thin for RB 2 points but I I
would be leaning on the upside over the Kyron type on this
build cuz we have we gotta assume that John White is gonna
be oh I meant to I meant to read these Deonte Hardy stats off
earlier cuz I I haven't really done any research in them
despite completely packing my bags.
He's basically one of these guys who because he didn't.
He was not like a super elite. He didn't go to like a big high
school and he wasn't like a five star prospect or whatever.
He scored 17 return touchdowns and D2.
He set the D2 records for all time scrimmage yards he had
over. He had over 6000 all-purpose
yards. He like he was like you know
that the comp for him would be like a Miles Austin type guy.
Like a guy who just went to one of these small schools and just
was like unreal. I I feel so good about the
Deonte Hardy bet like he he just he just like does it all.
The thing about Hardy, like Hardy, is it's 2025 and over
the, you know, 2023 and 2024. There was no production.
But then Rasheed. Shaheed ends up on the bills.
That's the best. It's like, yeah, super easy.
Literally. Just Rasheed.
Shaheed. Didn't do much for two years and
then finds his way as a starter on the Bills, but he was so
Hardy. Hardy's had some injuries as a
member of the Saints, but he like when he was available.
I mean he was good last year like he was a productive player
for them last year and he's like a stud returner which the stud
returning doesn't matter so much for fantasy.
But it's it was one of actually one of the first really useful
Rd. of his tools where it was like these guys who are really
good returners that correlates well with fantasy production
because I guess just because it is a number of it shows vision
and like and agility problem by. Athleticism.
Yes. Yeah, so.
Let's talk through our decision here.
These are sort of the running backs that I'm interested in
that are still available. The Tucker is on Tucker with
white. Yeah, I think it's an
interesting one cuz we got white at a pretty big it's it's a
good, I mean I would probably take Daudle, but Tucker seems
fine too. Yeah, I'm actually OK.
So we have Christian McCaffrey who's going to smash, and he's
not only is going to smash, he's going to smash in Week 17.
So we were looking for like one other running back score.
I actually kind of don't mind. Tucker got Tucker.
Wow. OK, well.
There you go. I don't know if these guys are
watching, but they're just demolishing my queue right now,
but I would probably go Dowdle or Ingram here.
I'm Ingram Ingram. Yeah, that's fine with.
Me. You guys want Ingram?
Ingram is just more there. There is literally zero question
that he's the second running back there.
Whereas with Dowdle you could be like, well, Ronald Jones is
suspended juice. Vaughn's gonna get the package
stuff like, yeah. Yeah, seems like the only way
for them to play James Connor at the end of the year, yeah.
Yeah, I get it. I think they're both.
They're both fine picks. I'm happy to get outvoted.
I would have been daddled there, just cuz we're talking about
Dallas Cowboys versus Arizona Cardinals.
But I don't think Ingram's a terrible pick by any means.
I get the certainty there for sure.
We did take some Philadelphia players, so little mini
correlation. With Imagine Kian got her.
Kiante Ingram is this year's ERTS Algier.
The urge Algeer thing. You were right.
It was just. I was right.
It was just McBride Algeer. It was just the young tiger
that. Isn't that so?
Isn't that so funny, though, that, like, the meme of last
basketball summer, like, actually came through?
It came through in a huge way, like Algeer was a smash, and the
correlated tight end was a smash.
Yeah I don't know have you guys, have you guys had this that I
I've been doing less week 17 correlation just cuz there are
so many guys I wanna be drafting like there are like so many
guys. I'm just trying to get my
exposures on that. I'm doing like less week 17 like
as my player takes it solidified.
I'm just like obviously still doing the team stacks, but like
less bring back type stuff. Yeah, I've had some trouble with
the bring backs. I know what you mean.
I'm just like, I'm taking this guy, I'm taking this guy, I'm
taking this guy. Also, things are getting a
little looser in the rooms and people are going a little more
loose. You know, they're taking the
quarterback like they're blowing up your stacks.
And so I've been having a pivot, so I have more kind of like
unstacked game stacks. And also I've just been timing
out and taking unstacked quarterbacks occasionally
because of these, because of the Internet out here.
So yeah, that has happened. Yeah.
I've always like I. Definitely prioritize week 17,
but I always kind of think of it as a tie break.
As I learned in Best Ball Brunch, Week 17 is just a
tiebreaker. If you guys watched that video,
they were pretty clear about that in the intro.
Still haven't, still haven't seen, still haven't watched it.
But Levitan Levitan was tweeting that he had to watch it.
He had to watch it to do his solo pod because every question
he got was about it. Did he watch the whole thing?
I don't. He hasn't.
I don't. Think he I feel like was back
yet that's like. Levitan couldn't have concocted
a better solo pod like Topic in a it's really good.
It's really perfect for his brand, but the best small brunch
solo pod. I can't believe he hasn't done
like a watch along. Yeah, yeah, I do.
Yeah. There.
I mean, I there's some kind of structural issues I had with
with their draft. They reached some out of
feeling. But besides that, it was, you
know, pretty. Pretty solid team overall.
We can we can maybe review it next year on ADP JS.
It could be the the first episode of February.
OK anyways let's let's do a quick recap of this team and
then get out of here. So we went with A2682 build got
the Bills and Atlanta stacked up here kick it to you first Davis,
what are your what are your thoughts on this team.
I think this is a good team. It's you know, I mean we we're
we're betting on Kincaids. What does Donovan Peoples Jones
do for this team? Absolutely nothing.
Yeah. Nothing.
Yeah. Bad, bad, bad pick should have
taken. Yes, out there Wandale, I mean
Wandale is going to Wandale is going to lead the NFC and
targets per route run and the haters are just going to be
crying and and and rent the rending their garments on the
streets. It's going to be, it's going to
be a tough scene. I do.
Yeah, and the targets per outrun leagues, that's going to be
really nice on his like 11 routes per game.
That's going to be really, You can't.
You don't. You don't keep.
You don't keep guys that good off the field.
He is going to dust off Hodgins and Slayton and all these losers
so fast. Wandale Robinson.
Get per pound, per pound more dog than DK Metcalf.
That's just the fact, so much more dog than DK Metcalf.
The thing about the running backroom, I do really like doing
this on McCaffrey teams where you get one dust ball, our dust
ball is Rashad White and then you just take nothing but guys
who have. I guess Hubbard maybe is kind of
a dust ball in the sense that I don't think he's that good but
can get carries. But a chain Algae or and Ingram
are like exactly the types of bets you want to layer in there.
And also the two Philly guys with Josh Allen.
It is just the fun What if? What if Jail and Hertz misses a
playoff game again? But but Gardner?
Who's their back? Mariota.
Never mind, I'm taking this back, Mariota's.
It's a Heineke, no? No.
Like like what happened in the playoffs last year where Hertz
missed a game but all the Eagle skill position players did fine
because Minshu scored thirty points against the Cowboys.
The other thing is that like this, it can be optimal to have
Hertz, Goddard and Smith and we could still win because we have
Josh out so he can he can score like 3 points less than Hertz.
And like this, there's going to be enough differentiation
between the rest of the lineup and those lineups that have,
like how many Hertz, Goddard, Smith teams are in the final,
like 4, so. That's the thing I yeah, people
overthink that of like you need this perfect team to win.
That Pat seen last year did not have Mike at.
Like if you show me the week 17 in advance, I would say you need
Mike Evan. You need the Brady Evans sack.
You did not have Evans. You didn't even need Brady in
your lineup and you still won. So you people overthink 400
person tournament where the ownership and roster ship is
going to be all scrambled up because of what happens in the
regular season. Week 15 Week 16, like Josh
Allen, can. Actually be outscored by Hertz
by 5 points and this team can still.
Win. They can still win.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's. It's not that obviously if he
gets outscored by 10/15/20, that's where it's like, OK, this
one's dead. But yeah, we just need him to
like, stay close with Hertz though, which is totally viable.
And it's also possible that, like it's Smith that you need.
Hertz has a great game, but Alan and Kincaid go off and I get to
take a victory lap on Dalton Kincaid, which is just, I mean
now that's the only thing I want.
Yeah, that would be a funnier verse like your lab.
What I also like about this team is I think it's actually, if you
take a tight end in the Kittle Goddard hits like Elite but not
quite elite tier. I think it's actually a little
bit thin if you just pair that guy with like your super late
Tyler Conklin or Kate Otten or whatever.
Because I think like these types of guys, Goddard, Kittle can
actually be like pretty low advance rate if they just have
sort of disappointing regular seasons and it's gonna be hard
to sneak them through. I think by I hate taking got her
most of the time, honestly. I love.
I love God this year. But.
I like got her too. I don't think I have a ton of
them, but it's only because I still was taking pits.
Which, you know, anytime you can take the 4th target, anytime,
anytime you could take Mac Collins's direct backup.
You just you gotta do it. You.
Gotta do it anytime you take guys gonna run less routes than
Johnny Smith and Parker Hessey. Oh my God.
The Johnny Smith bit like coming back alive like them trading the
seventh round pick for Jonu Smith and him like on.
Ironically, running routes is just gonna be awful.
Yeah, but 11% got it for me. I was.
I was in. Yeah, I was around that for
Goddard. Yeah, I think it's a good team.
I think, you know, if I'm gonna make sense, Rashad White shares.
This is the way to do it. Past ADP and literally forced to
do so and. So my my hands tied behind my
back, blindfolded. That's usually my preferred way
to take Michelle's. ADP and kidnapped, that's how.
Michelle. What?
Yeah, I guess I disagree with like DPJ.
I think you guys are wrong about DPJ.
I think he's a smash at 171. You're just getting the Browns
starting wide receiver for free. Like, he just doesn't.
He just isn't really that good. I don't.
He had 800 yards. He had 800 yards last year.
I mean, Cedric Tillman's coming for that, for that deep, deep
threat role, isn't he? Marquee's good when they talked
up a ton as a deep threat and he's back.
He's back with the team. He had blood clot issues and now
he's back. So I don't know.
I think DPJ could end up as a rotational guy to end the year.
He's not. Thinking Yeah, I guess So what
do you win when you win? What do you win when?
You're right, the Donovan Peoples Jones is the Zay Jones
of the Browns offense. I do have 7% DPJ, so maybe I
should be on the same side here. I wonder if I've taken him once.
He's good. Like he had 800 yards on the
Jacobi percent, like very low pass volume.
Then the Deshaun Watson. Absolute shit show offense.
I get Elijah Moore wasn't there, but I don't think that changes
what DBJ is doing on this. Well, it's it's two guys, right?
It's Tillman, It's Tillman and more who can put pressure on his
targets. Yeah.
But I mean, Tillman's just kind of in the Anthony Schwartz and I
guess. For me, the larger, the larger
thing for me is that I think that week 17 game is like maybe
the least attractive week 17 game, like two run heavy teams
and bad weather. It just it's so it's people,
people are they're laughing about it now.
They are not going to be laughing when the total for that
game is 33 1/2. Like they are not going to think
it's funny. Davis, if you have, if you have
zero teams in the finals across all your teams, but there's a
bad weather game, are you gonna victory laugh that spike the
football just just be like, Oh yeah, you guys drafted all these
Jets players. Congrats.
What you have to today you have to tweet out The Jets total.
The Jets Browns total being 33. Because if it actually is 33,
that's gonna be an all time victory lap.
And if it's like a high total, you'll just delete the tweet.
So it's a win, win. I gotta see.
There's gotta be a place that has Week 17 lines up.
It's a Thursday night game too. Oh my God, people.
The people. The people have been hoodwinks,
dude. Not the Thursday, December 28th
outdoor game. No, so.
You're saying the Garrett Wilson, Alan Lazard and Rogers
stacks not not looking so good anymore?
I I don't even take Garrett Wilson.
I mean, I I would only say that at the end of a 2 hour podcast
where where no one could hold me accountable for it, but I don't
even really take Garrett Wilson. Davis, I'm with you on that.
I was forced. Adams was gone.
All those guys are gone. That's the only reason I take
him. Should we review that, that team
or or what were you gonna say, Pat?
Well, no, I think, I think this is kind of a fun thing of like
who? And I don't know.
I need to think of who this actually is.
But who's like the the cool, like sexy player that like you
never really take the Garrett Wilson.
It's Garrett Wilson for me. Yeah, it's not even that I I
think Garrett Wilson is awesome. I think he's great.
It's just that he goes head of a Monroe St.
Brown sometimes and I always take St.
Brown and if St. Brown's gone I I almost always
take Adams. Cuz Adams has, Adams has like
all the outs, right He's got he's got Jimmy Garoppolo plays
to Derek Carr's level. He's got he plays the Week 17
game in the Dome like he just like he's it's all set up for
Adams. Other than that he's 30.
I think mine might be like the one I don't want to like talk
about. Least one of them would be
Christian Watson. I don't.
Yeah. I got a little nervous and I
never really took someone. Someone said he's Green Bay
Packers Chase Claypool and I can't Unsee it.
Yeah, I ended up with 6%. I might have been the person
that said it, but. I got.
It with you, I'm sure. It was you.
I've been hearing that a lot. It's even eerie down to the fact
that Watson scored 9 receiving touchdowns and two rushing
touchdowns, the same way Claypool at 9 receiving
touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns.
Yeah, it's. We are.
Proud of it but I but I have a Christian Watson semi fade, soft
fade. So that that Claypool take
Davis, I I can't cite the numbers but I think JJ Zacharys
actually did like a breakdown of that on his pod and his
conclusion was like their rookie years are not that similar like
Watson's was in a completely different tier from Claypool's.
I do the stylistic comp though. I totally get like they scored
rushing touchdowns or these kind of freak athletes that were sort
of raw from a hands route running perspective.
But I'm I'm still very bullish on Watson.
I do I do see like Pat you being at 6% on him.
Like I think that's reasonable like given his price I don't
think that's a crazy take. But I I'm pretty in on Watson
this year. The one for me, the the sexy
player that I'm not. In on and don't really like to
talk about. Stan just unfolds a huge scroll,
in fact. I just want I wanna make one
more point on Brown's jets before you do this.
Nowhere we'll even post a total for it.
No one will even post a look at a total for it because they
don't wanna get hit with the bad weather.
They don't want to get hit with an unpredictable bad weather and
have a bunch of people who have tickets of under 39 1/2 and they
have to move the line to 32 the week of.
Hey listen as long as there's enough enough win for just a
million short check down still fully healthy briefs hall I
think I'll I'll survive it it's it's it's you could you could
paint it as bullish for for briefs right that that he just
gets 22 carries. You prefer it to be high
scoring, but it yeah, it could be bullish, sure.
Yeah, so mine. My take.
The sexy player that I don't. No, no, I have like, okay, Let's
do my other one first. That's maybe a software
discussion, but Jalen Waddell. Jalen Waddell is a player who I
have 2% of. So a couple things on Waddell.
Wow, one. I think he was priced in a
range. A lot of the offseason where you
had the choice of Tony Pollard, you had the choice of Nick Chubb
very early on, so I was not clicking him when that was
there. Now I have been taking him a
little bit more as those guys moved up #2 I think there's this
like we did this last year with Waddle and Tyreke.
It's like, ah, this is really like A1A1D situation, Tyreke and
Waddle. Waddle had like 60 more targets,
or sorry, Hill had like 60 more targets than Waddle last year.
Waddle ran insanely hot on efficiency, which is a good
like, we do want to see what if that's just who he is though?
I mean, I'm with you on the early fade, but I don't see how
you are not taking him now when, yeah.
He's been such a smash. And how are you not taking him
now? When are you just taking Olabe
over him every time? No, I'm taking.
So what I'm doing is. I think I have like 2% waddle.
I do take Devonta Smith over him, cuz I think Devonta Smith's
actually the more well-rounded, better wide receiver and I think
being attached to the Eagles offense is better than being
attached to the Dolphin. So this is the player, player
take. I don't have an opinion, but
structurally, don't you find that hard because you are you
it's just harder to get a quarterback stack with your high
capital guys, whereas it's much easier when you take Waddle.
So The thing is, I think maybe it's a little bit like I always
tell myself, oh, if I take Devonta here at 20, I have a
chance at the herd Devonta stack and I get him.
But I I do have like a decent bit of it actually.
But yeah, that gets. You get it about 40% of the.
Time. You do get it some percentage of
the time and I just think like man, I think Jalen Hurts passing
stats are gonna really spike this year.
I I think so the two of stuff, this is the second part of it.
I'm just not a Dolphins believer.
And this is more like you can say this is less.
You know analytical and more just like my own personal eye
test and vibe. The Dolphins offense that was
running through the NFL for the first half of the season last
year I don't think is going to be replicated this year.
Defense is adjusted to that. You can also blame it on like to
his injuries, his concussions, I get that.
But second-half of the year, that Dolphins offense with two O
was really struggling once the defense is adjusted.
And one of the big adjustments is they were playing waddle with
much more man press coverage instead of just letting him run
free in zone. And Waddle like, you look at the
reception perception stuff. Waddle's actually not like an
elite man press coverage beater. He's a small wide receiver, so
once teams made that adjustment, he actually struggled a little
bit and the Dolphins as a whole kind of tank.
So I just think Waddle like he's an awesome player, but I think
he's vastly overrated as a talent.
Like, give me Devonta Smith over him.
So that that's honestly where the faith comes down to is I I
just will not take him really over Devonta Smith and it sort
of comes down to that like if you use price like tea like I've
mixed some tea eggs more as he's falling to like 2728.
I think that's the fair price from Waddell and I just I just
want that Devonta Smith stack instead of the two, the two.
I don't. I don't agree with this
particular take, but it is going to be funny.
Like how many? Takes like this are going to be
completely right like that. Yeah.
We're like, so set in stuff like you cannot take Waddle over
Devonte Smith. And it's gonna be like Devonte
Smith could like crush Waddle, you know, like there's like T
Higgins could crush Garrett Wilson.
You know what? I mean these these like these
like micro ABP differences where you're like I can't believe that
and then it just ends up being like so right.
No, it is I I was. So many of those I'm gonna do a
thread probably later today maybe tomorrow about just like
stuff from week one last year that just proved to be like
hilariously like non signaled like Devonta Smith going 000
against the commanders in week one last year.
Like, so like so funny in retrospect you know there were
ten team leagues last year where Devonta Smith got dropped in
week 1 where they were like no I'm not doing this.
I'm not doing this with this guy like so funny.
I mean, if you wanted to do numbers, you gotta tweet it out.
Monday, OK, I guess we're doing it.
Yeah. That that would have been a fun
we should have done like a take purge or something.
One of those episodes where we just fire off all of our like
hot cuz the waddle thing. Honestly that this is a take
that's like I'm not advocating people fade waddle cuz like I
see how I. Yeah, that's why I wanted to
bring it up, cuz it's like there's got another guy for me.
I have 4% George Pickens. And I don't.
Oh, God, that that feel like that could be painful.
I feel like that. I feel like you might.
You might. Yeah.
That. You don't.
That's why you don't hear me talk about it.
Well, I guess The thing is, is that's easy.
It's actually much easier to imagine based on where he's
going now. But I know you've been drafting
since May, so that there's got to be a lot of teams where you
passed on George Pickens and like pick 81 or whatever.
Yeah, I didn't hammer him in the 7th, I didn't hammer him in the
light 6th. And then he got priced up and I
was like, I don't feel like chasing this and I just stayed
behind and it's like, so I don't, I'm not proud of the way
I played it and but I also am not a huge believer in the
player. Like I think he could be good,
but I'm not. I never got quite on board with
all the Steam. It's kind of like Ridley, like
where I was like OK, you know what I think I'm in and then
everyone's like great. He's 6 fix more expensive than
the price you thought. But I guess I need to come to
terms with that now. And Ridley is another guy like
that for me where I never really got on board and I kind of, I
kind of wish I, yeah, I only have 3% Ridley and I don't feel
that you didn't see that training camp clip.
It just passed. You just saw it and it was like
nothing to you. I mean that that one could
definitely hurt. But Ridley?
Because I didn't want to have a big fade on Ridley, but I
thought he was a little priced up in the at the 3-4 turn and
then he went to the to the late 2nd and I never I never
corrected. Yeah, I wish I was.
I was like mixing Ridley in at that 3/4.
I had a pretty similar experience to you, Pat, but I
just like chase it up more. I'm just like I don't want.
To be out on chasing it up, chasing, chasing up.
A lot of research has found this.
Gretch has done some stuff on this, but a lot of people have
finding out that actually, a lot of the time ADP risers don't
rise far enough that the market gets excited on them.
But then at a certain point they just say whoa, whoa whoa whoa,
hold the brakes. Maybe that's not the case with
Ridley, but I could easily see us looking back and being like,
wait. We were just taking the Andre
Hopkins over George Pickens all offseason for for what reason
were we doing that? You know I.
Can see that too. Yeah, that's another thing.
We're like, see that back to the waddle thing?
Like two was clear #2 wide receiver, in my opinion.
And what happened last year compared to Tyree goes ahead of
Trevor Lawrence's #1 wide receiver.
That could look really crazy in retrospect.
Like, obviously, I could be wrong about that, but we could
be like, so wait, we just like, we shot Ridley up the board.
But we said this is where he stops.
Like, we're still taking these #2 wide receivers over him.
That could look, yeah, obviously, you never know in
retrospect. But anyways, man, the hell of a
summer doing the show with you guys.
Two hours in, that's. I'm gonna be so fucking
depressed if I end all of this and don't have a team in any
final. If I if I just spent, if I just
spent my whole summer, like drafting until my eyes and
fingers bleed, I got my screen time report yesterday from this
last week of like really doing drafts. 8 hours and 36 minutes
of screen time the last week. I mean, what the fuck?
So here's what you do, Davis. Well, this is the next summer
tip. You turn your screen so that it
never times out. So that it stays on always,
right? Cuz that's actually a helpful
feature for when you're trying to do work and draft.
You can put the phone right there and you can just like use
the phone and then work on your computer, but also your screen
time report is now. Meaningless.
It's you've. It's not accurate.
It's it's it's 16. It's 16 hours a day. 16 hours.
But that's not real. And it might be 14 hours of real
screen time. But you?
You don't have to live with that.
You. Can't my my big wish My big wish
for next offseason is that the DraftKings UI makes drafting on
mobile just nice and easy, just like is seamless.
Is underdog because if if the notifications and the app worked
the same way as good as underdog.
I mean, I could draft even more teams actually, because I I
really put off doing DK drafts cuz it's not fun to do them on
your phone. So that would be amazing.
Don't pause my music, DK, Don't pause it, please.
You you can you can You can. You can turn that off.
You can turn it off, but then you get no notification.
No, no. You just gotta go into Sound and
Haptics. It's in the little notification.
No, no. Like I'm having deja vu, I feel
like. Wait, you can change the sound
and haptics to. So you can turn off sound and
haptics, but there's a. You can receive notifications
but have no noise come through. My God, All right.
Pat Pat figured this out on Monday, so thanks.
For telling me this on fucking Labor Day.
Amazing. Glad that we were.
I'm glad that we were able. I'm glad that we were able to
cover that. But we'll remember.
We'll remember this for next year.
It's really not even that hard pad.
Yeah, I'm. Jumping in the.
App and changing it, Yeah, cuz I listen to podcasts while I do it
and it never pauses. Wow.
It's a good way. It's a good way to end.
Guys, it was a pleasure I hope.
I mean just like one final between between the show.
I think Pete said it best the other days.
Like if we all have a communal team to root for in week 17 this
year, it'll be that that given the size of the contest, one 1.1
million entrants on DraftKings, 660,000 on underdog, I think
getting one team through feels feels good.
Yeah. Think some, huh?
I agree. Yeah, I'm feeling really good
about our our shared teams. But yeah, the last thing I'll
say, I had a blast doing the show with you guys this
offseason. I think during the season we're
not gonna have a weekly show. I guess we haven't really
officially announced that, but. We'll do something, we'll figure
something out, portfolio review, something like that.
We will for sure. We'll do something.
So it's not not goodbye forever, but thanks to everyone who
joined us this offseason. Yeah, this is the most fun I've
had doing content fantasy football.
Really good engagement from the chat, from the YouTube,
commenters from people on Twitter got great reception for
the show. So this was a great experience
for me. And yeah, thanks to both Davis
and Pat for joining me on this. This was a lot of fun.
And yeah, like you said, hopefully you just get one sweat
for one of us. Get one team the finals and
we'll be back. But everyone, good luck to your
last couple days of drafting. We will see you at some point in
the future. Peace.