Alright guys, welcome to a very special new addition to the ship
chasing Channel. You guys know Sam Sherman from
his work with us on stat chasing throughout the offseason.
We are spinning up a new show that's going to be weekly on
Fridays hosted by Sam and regularly.
Davis Matic he's not here with us today.
Pat Crane and I are going to Adjoining though, as wingmen on
this show, Gretsch will be swinging by at times, but
basically the goal of this show is to do a focus on the ADP
landscape across various best ball contest, looking at
movement, how you can exploit it really approaching it from a
market standpoint, which is as important as ever with these
draft, contests up for specific duration, some of them spanning
months, some of them spanning weeks, Sam and crew are going to
be your One-Stop shop for staying on top of all of this
stuff. So you can exploit it in your
drafts. So without further Ado, let's
get to the debut episode. I sewed of ATP, chasing fryer,
homos and job. I said you're the sounds good to
me. Yeah.
Well anyways I'm really excited to be kicking the show off.
Guys. Yeah, Pete.
You did an awesome job explaining the concept of the
show and the intro but I will be here all summer talking through
through ATP. And I think it's really
important, you know, as we start to get more news and hype Cycles
are different players really tracking how players are moving
and make sure we we update our our stances accordingly.
So yeah. So this would be an awesome show
looking forward to it. And yeah, Pat or Pete, any other
any other thoughts on the show before we sort of dive into the,
to the numbers here? No, I'm excited.
I mean I think Pete's point about you know thus becoming
like more and more Market basis important one of the things I
want to eventually dive into with you guys is like trying to
make that we be projecting like when these tournaments are going
to fill because like I actually think I did some bad stuff in
the Big Board because I thought it was going to take longer to
fill then it will, you know. So it's like when you know like
when you have something with best while Mania though we're
you know it's gonna stretch that whole span I do.
I think it's just absolutely crucial to understand where the
atp's are going to end up. And where where you might be
getting the best price on a guy even if you don't love him at
that price. Yeah and you're having to Think
Through not only win are the contest going to fill but like
how big your portfolio is going to be?
Because I've been saying in these big board rafts like I've
been passing on these early quarterbacks but then I'm like
do I really want this you know draft to close and I have zero
Elite quarterback and the second or third round where it's like
sure maybe I get my shares of those in different contests
throughout the summer but if I actually want a specific
portfolio in This contest I need to start thinking about that
soon and knowing are these atp's going to change or do I just
need to start biting the bullet and mixing those guys in now.
Yeah, I think that's a great point with the quarterbacks is I
had that same stance initially and now it looks like by the end
of this tournament. Like those quarterback atp's
especially hurts Mahomes Alan. They're probably not going to
move by the time. This contest feels so like, I've
updated my stance and that where I'm starting to take those guys.
I don't want a full fade them, but yeah, to your original Point
Pat I think starting to track the fill rates for these
tournaments is especially like a fastball Mania.
If that looks like it's filling quicker than expected and you
know, We'll see about that. That would really change how we
approach things. So for sure.
Good thing to track going forward.
I the the conversation about like the quarterbacks is a
really interesting one to me. I don't know if we want to dive
into that now or if I'm derailing Us by by diving in,
but I just think like part of me is like you know what, I am
going to full fadem, I'm going to full fade Josh out and Pat
Mahomes in this tournament obviously not in my 2023
portfolio. That'd be kind of crazy but what
if If the way to attack the big board is not to draft second
round Mahomes like that might just might be that.
That's not like the best way to do it and maybe my portfolio is
going to be all teams that are, you know, built differently than
that. And if that ends up being an
edge, then, you know I have an edge in that tournament and
maybe I can get some more like, get a team through to the
finals. Yeah.
If it doesn't, then then I wash out on that tournament, but I
think there's enough Moments where I think that's another
option. Like you can think through like
in this tournament I'm taking like a stance and that stance is
limited to this specific tournament in the specific time
period. And if I completely blow it, if
I'm just totally wrong then I will have other chances to take
different stances orders to kind of be more in line with the
market generally and not be so aggressive.
Yeah, I think it definitely makes sense and I have some
thoughts, some more thoughts on the quarterbacks but I think we
can definitely talk through this as we go through some of the
charts here. So yeah, let's dive into it.
And before we do it let me give like a quick overview to the
listeners of what we're gonna be talking through each week.
First we'll start by talking about players ATP Rogers and
fallers, that's a pretty straightforward concept.
Then we'll also look at things at the team level.
The positional level so we'll be tracking how you know how we're
Kansas City players, tracking verse Chicago, players vs.
Houston players, that sort of thing to really get get a view
of, okay? I thought Mega stacking the
bills. How much am I paying for that?
And then at the positional level we also want to be tracking how
are the are be ones moving relative to the wide receiver
ones you know, and additional detailed there.
So we'll be looking at all angles, not just individual
players but some further team and positional level context.
As well. Yeah, that's let's dive into it.
I'll add these charts to the stream here so so people can
follow along. But this, this first chart here,
I think is, is really interesting.
These are the largest ATP risers from February 15th to February
24th, which is today and I'll leave this one up for a second.
I think like seven out of ten of these players are rookies, which
I think I'm drafting all the think.
This might be Pat crane returns from Indonesia.
How did you Kobe Myers sneak onto this list to?
He's like, I'm drafting to go. We Mars, I'm drowning because I
think some of these, I think some of these Ultra boring
veterans are undervalued and I like the rookies I think
literally I've drafted every one of these players.
Yeah. I like all these rookies to.
We have like another deep dive in the rookies.
So let's let's start with talking about the veterans and
we'll dive into the rookies later.
So this year, I just removed remove the rookies here.
Here, the biggest risers with, just the veterans.
And yeah, let's start with the conversation around Jacoby Myers
Pat interested in. Why you think why he's a value
at 98 overall, he's rising over the past couple weeks.
So I don't love Jacoby Mars, but I think, I think he's viable.
And what I, the reason that I am someone interested in him, is
that The overall like player pool right now, strikes me is
one where once you get to about like the ninth round, there's
like no wide receivers left and you can you can maybe see
Brandon Cooks there and I actually really like Brandon
Cooks. I think Cooks is not done and
won't be in Houston and even if he is in Houston is gonna have a
quarterback upgrade. So I think he's someone we're
like he's probably a pretty solid pick.
Maybe is not a smash if he stays in Houston.
But I think their scenarios where he lands somewhere kind of
exciting and ends up being like a seventh-round pick or
sixth-round pick that like the ship chasing Collective thinks
is like a bad pick, but I'd like, hey, I'm getting him in
the night. So, but in Jacoby, Mars is sort
of a similar bet. I think where he's a free agent.
I don't always like going after free agents at there's a lot of
downside with free agents but in Jacoby Meyers case, he's been
very solid. I think he serves like a It role
for an NFL team. So I think he'll land somewhere
and be pretty productive and it's more like it's just feels
like he's sort of last call for you know, professional wide
receivers. Yeah I like Myers.
I'm not sure like at 98, some of the value might be squeezed out
there but you know one point nine yards for outrun last year
he averaged close to 16, PPR points per game and that wasn't
a New England offense that, you know, Sherry, you could argue
good week talking competition. So maybe that perhaps not but at
the same time like the past volume was pretty bad.
You know, Matt Patricia was the offensive coordinator, it wasn't
the best situation and give them the free-agent wide.
Receiver class is so weak. I do see scenarios where Myers
goes to a team like the Chiefs are Dallas, maybe even the
Chargers if they move on for Keenan Allen and want a cheaper.
Yeah. What if they cut Keenan?
Allen is bringing Jacoby Mars. I mean, marzu fifth round pick.
So he is, I know, we're not taking the fifth round.
He's probably going there, you know?
So he prayed I think he probably goes more were like Brandin
Cooks went last year, you know, where it's like, I think he
would go ahead of where Brandon Cooks on last year because he
was on the Texans. Yeah.
But all right, anyways, in general, and maybe Paris
Campbell, like, fits the the trend here to at an even better
price, like some of these free-agent Waters severs to your
point. Pat, I think you're going to
land in good. Spots?
Like Campbell, charc Myers. It's a week free agent class.
One of those guys is going to get one of these attractive
spots that we're talking about and shoot way up the board.
So, I think in general, I'm kind of buying the, the veteran free
agent wide receivers just because there's a lot of
uncertainty baked in their price.
I'm actually generally not buying them because I'm like,
not, I like it because it's a week class of.
And so, from the talent base perspective, I'm pretty Shaky on
Paris, Campbell is never really shown much.
I know he's been hurt a lot but DJ shark.
I think he has flash more talent.
But even in his breakout season he wasn't all that fishing in
terms of yards per outrun and he's dealt with injuries.
So I don't love like one of those.
I like Myers is that I don't like dipping into like some of
these free agent wide receiver bets later Darius Layton is
another one. You guys know that I liked Terry
Slayton but I don't I don't know where he's going to be and I
think one thing that kind of the fantasy Community, maybe like
doesn't do a good enough job of this is kind of coming from my
Dynasty lenses. Like when you do Dynasty ranks,
there's like a huge list of dudes that you just don't rank
anymore every year where it's like, oh yeah, like Keelan coal
used to be a guy like, you know, like there's we just forget and
then like we just wipe those dudes from our brain and there's
a bunch of guys Currently being drafted, who are those dudes?
Who are just like gonna have like next year, we will have
forgotten existed. So I think maybe like some of
the, we might be overly optimistic on some of these non
differentiating. Type of talents Who currently
don't have contracts. Yeah, that's fair to me.
Like maybe Campbell is about example.
I mean he is so cheap so I can't.
Are you too much against taking them with like sort of a last
round pick shark to me seems like a guy that has like sort of
a certified NFL skill set. That an NFL team will value like
I have a hard time. Imagining him complete?
Yeah, that's all. I'm off the radar but I see what
you're saying. Like there's definitely there's
upside and risk with with these fries and wide receivers there
could be way less. Target that may expect, you
know, could be a will Fuller just never signed ever
situation. So, I mean, I'm not drafted many
more. That's you, let me down.
Will you let me down? What think I should say?
If you are listening to this in audio form, Sam has incredible
charts that were displaying on screen right now.
So, we're looking at ATP risers from February 15th 24.
So, if you are some, for some reason, listening this in audio
form, do check out the video here.
What do you guys think of like looking at these?
Names. Like I feel like you can tell
yourself the reason why most of these guys have moved the DJ
more stuff, was that? Just like his ATP, whatever it
came out of the gate and people were anchored to it earlier, he
just seemed Miss price right away.
Was there anything else that was thrusting it up other than
people saying? Hey, this is mispriced.
I don't know. I mean, I think maybe Frank
Reich, you know, people are starting to feel a little bit
more optimistic about the situation and then maybe feeling
like more optimistic that they do upgrade their quarterback.
You know, seeing Anthony Richardson have his ATP bump up
as people start to realize that he might go top 10.
And, you know, maybe he goes to the Panthers, maybe they bring
in, there's like four options, it seems like that.
The Panthers could for early quarterback options in this
class, which should help the Panthers land.
Somebody. So that quarterback upgrade,
maybe wasn't pricing enough to begin with.
Not that it's guarantee, but it's good chance.
Yeah. I don't know.
I like you know I know ship chasing is always love DJ more,
but I do think there is a bit of a case against him at this cost.
I mean in 2022, he just came off his Worst season in terms of
yards per route, Ron used on to 1.74 after being like close to
24 his whole career. Obviously, the quarterback play
was bad but again, quarterback plays generally been bad as
whole career. And this year, he maybe had the
worst Target competition of his entire career, like he no longer
works. Meeting with McCaffrey no longer
competing with Curtis Samuel, Robbie Anderson sort of
competent veterans. He also and I know you've
mentioned this ESPN open Score which I think is pretty
interesting to check out from last year.
He ranked 89 that of 111 in that behind guys like Gabe Davis,
George Pickens Mike Williams guys were not known as get
separators so I don't know. I just want to be wary of like
obviously still young like he's shown a lot and his crew.
Year. But for a guy that's had, you
know, maximum 16 point PPR points per game over his entire
career. It feels a little, it feels a
little pricey for me. Coming off a bad year but yeah,
I don't know how much to read into like his down your last
year going forward. I think that's fair.
I haven't been like I wasn't smashing him even when he was
cheaper, he was someone, I was like happy to see there, but
he's part of a big group of wide receivers in that General range
that I liked. And so he didn't jump out to me
is like, the must draft of that group, which as someone who's
always been very high on DJ more, is basically me being low
on him. Yeah, I mean his Louis and this
is full point. PPR his lowest PPR finish over
the past three years has been wide receiver 25.
And that's been running bad on touchdowns never have a good
quarterback play. So it seems like to me like a
pretty high floor pick and then maybe there's some meat on the
bone if they figure out quarterback, if Josh McCown Tsar
Revelation as a quarterbacks coach if Reich has, who knows?
But it just it seems like a solid pick even maybe maybe it's
been priced out but when he was going in the sixth round, I mean
that felt like a smash to me. I'd also note that in 2021 he
finished wide receiver 11 in ESPN's open Score head of Cooper
cup head of Tyree kill and he's turning 26 in April so I would
be not over. He concerned with the fact that
he had like someone had genuinely down year.
He was the kind of having like separating, like a Michael
Pittman, which is not, not great.
Given that he's kind of more of the Yards after catch Speedy
undersized guy, but in the past, he has gotten open very well.
And, you know, maybe that's an offensive design thing to an
extent, so I wouldn't be overly concerned.
Yeah, it doesn't seem like there's any structural reasons.
You should have had such a serious decline last year, so
I'm willing to like, chalk it up.
Up is probably mostly noise and just like a terrible situation
but yeah just something. Something worth monitoring.
Cool. Let's I think, let's move on to
the fallers in a teepee. And I guess for the audio
listeners, the other guys who jump out here as risers, and
maybe we won't discuss them in detail, about worth mentioning
Sam, Howell Kenny gain. Well, Isaiah Hodgins Jacoby &
Meyers Curtis Samuel Sky More DJ more Trail ants short in love
and the sky more Pat came back. I actually did want to talk
about gained while here before I move on.
I think that this rise is probably like some effect of the
Super Bowl. Snap share break out between
gain well and mile Sanders. He actually out snapped Sanders
in the Super Bowl in a game where Philadelphia was forced to
pass. I was actually talking about
that earlier in the postseason where gain well, snap share
might have been artificially low throughout the entire season
because They were just blowing out teams and didn't really have
to get that up-tempo usage with him as the passing down back.
But yeah, I'd pick 128. I'm curious what you think Pete
as to whether that's still a value with gain wild.
Like do you think we there's any chance he becomes a starter next
year in Philadelphia or how are you treating him at that price?
Yeah, I guess I'm kind of ambivalent or neutral on it.
It just seems like his path to being.
A lead back or just really thin right?
Like no matter what happens, they're going to use a Bruiser
back and then on top of that I think we all hope he was going
to have more of a pass-catching role this year and be used, you
know, exclusively in that and he didn't catch a ton of passes
this year either. And I know he came down late or
came on late down the stretch. So, maybe where are we do?
We feel comfortable extrapolating that a little bit
more. That's kind of my concern with
him because how he was used for most of the regular season was
not very encouraging. It wasn't, but I really like him
actually. I've been drafting a lot of
them. And, you know, if there's anyone
that I actually like maybe have been partially responsible for
pushing up, I would say it's probably game.
Well, he just feels like kind of a small Miss Big Win type of
profile where I feel confident that he's talented, you know,
he's on a rookie deal. He's kind of got like, he's
carved out a roll. It's not the biggest role but
miles. Sanders is a free agent.
There's a chance where they bring in one of the many rookies
in this class. We're pretty interesting as kind
of an early down guy but the game will out plays that guy and
ends up being, you know, kind of a 1A or in a split but he gets
enough receiving work. We're in a true split more of a
split than he had with Sanders. He'd be pretty interesting.
I don't he doesn't strike me as like maybe he's more like a
medium win. Small Miss type of guy because I
don't think he has this Super juicy upside.
I think like, they won't really use them at all that, much
around the goal line, most likely.
But there was a, there was a game against the Cowboys where
they used him on four, straight carries inside the Red Zone.
The the I believe it culminated. He picked up a first down in
that culminated with a gardner. Minshew quarterback sneak for
the touchdown. But Sanders, you know, they
could have been going to him there and they went to gain wall
instead. So I don't think he's completely
dead to get used some around the goal line.
And the thing I really like about him is Let's say they just
re-signed Sanders in 11th round price tag for Sanders
handcuffed. He isn't bad right in this
offense like that's what it that's maybe a round or two
rounds more than you'd prefer but like that's where I think
it's a small Miss where you're really not paying that much of a
premium on on what we would pay for, just the pure handcuffs.
So any upside that you can foresee like I guess we can
quibble about how much of it is outside.
The really is. But to me it's not really.
That not that much of a premium that you're paying to get it.
Yeah, here's a question for you Sam.
Like how it again, with this draft being unique or big board
stuff with this closing before the NFL draft.
How are you thinking in general about a DPS in your portfolio of
these running backs? The phrase, I always use is
where the bombs could go off. Whether it's getting they draft
someone whether they bring someone in with free agency, are
you always wanting to play it through the cheaper?
Running back in those ambiguous situations like because I do
think gain well is a good one to view it through.
That lens. Yeah, I think like it's really
context-dependent. But if you talk about the Eagles
as an example, I think like Sanders has the potential to
really plummet like maybe his free agent, he's probably
sitting like the Eds, maybe his free agent Market isn't as
strong, as he expects, its on a team's draft, rookie running
back Surly and he sort of left out and he could drop a ton.
Whereas I see game wall is somewhat safer because he's
still under contract, actually boss, both, Boston, Scott and my
Sanders are free agents. So like I don't see a scenario
where he's not at least the number two in Philadelphia.
So to me that price feels a bit safer.
But yeah, I think, to your point Pete, I'm getting kind of
nervous about like, the more expensive free agent running
backs that are sort of assumed to re-sign somewhere like, like
Sanders, like maybe David Montgomery or though, you could
argue whether that's a value or not, guys, talked about
Montgomery on. Ship chasing when I was out and
I'm not in on him, I think I don't think he's good and he
doesn't have a job and so, like to me, like Montgomery's going
right next to Khalil. Herbert give me Khalil Herbert
all day. Global Herbert is good, I feel
positive, thoughts, good and he's under contract.
And again, if they sign, they were to re-sign Montgomery and
clue Herbert was his backup, his ATP might be around lower than
it is. Now, maybe it wouldn't even
change. So I'm like, why isn't any of
the upside? That he operates as the lead
back with a rookie, you know, mixing in behind him, but that's
not a 0% outcome. And so, I do, I like him.
I like, I like game. Well and Herbert, Richard white,
I like the guys under contract in this General range.
I like and, and guy like Montgomery really, really makes
me nervous. Yeah, that's a good point.
And, and just like a higher level, we talked, we touched on
this with the cube. He's like, I am definitely.
I do care about closing line value even in these early
tournaments, like, you can make the argument, like, oh, why does
it matter if they DP doesn't change over the course of the
tournament? If I load up on Kenny gained
while 130 in the big board and Philly, you know, doesn't really
draft. Anybody High doesn't resign
Sanders and he jumps up to the sixth round.
I've been have that leverage where I don't have to chase
gained while in the sixth round and future tournaments because I
Eddie had a ton of exposure, so like you can think of it like
that. Like, it allows you to get
leverage in like future tournaments.
If you load up on these guys at good values.
Now like maybe last year, Julio Jones, is maybe a bad example
because he busted and sucked anyways, but if you had a ton of
Julio in the Big Board which I did you did.
Yeah, I just have a lot of Julio to yeah, frijole, I was nice.
Yeah. So that's something about that
type of, it's a great Point. Yeah, it's a really great point
because Can adjust what you're doing later.
If you can, you can feel more confident about going because
there's that thing of like God I really don't want to take this
guy like Damien Pierce. For example, I didn't really
have any of last year because he kept getting more expensive and
every time I was like, I don't love them here.
I'm gonna I'm gonna pass and then he'd go, he'd go move up
around and then it would be, even harder to drive them.
I just never really got in and that's not a great position to
be in. I don't think generally, you
want to be Damien. Damien, Pierce is like pretty
talented running back. Not a Perfect pick.
But I would have much preferred to not have, you know, a
complete faith position basically and this is the time
where you can get those types of guys, really cheap and avoid
that. That exits, let's move on to the
fallers here. So again for people listening on
audio looking at the largest fallers over the past 10 days or
so, some names that jump out here as the biggest followers or
Brock / D. Chase Brown is a rookie running
back Jerick McKinnon Zach ertz fournette, Chimera CH Jimmy G,
Isaiah McKenzie, and and Desmond Ritter I think the first thing
that Jumps out to me. Here is the Chiefs running backs
with both McKinnon and CH falling a ton.
I'm curious Pete how you're playing the Chiefs running back
situation. Like you think these ATP Falls
for these guys are Justified and if so does that mean we should
be hammering Pacheco at around six.
Seventy ATP. What are your thoughts on these
guys? Because I'm not not quite sure
how to sort out. The KC running back situation.
Yeah I don't think I know either because I want to say across my
ten or so drafts that I've done. I do not think I have selected a
single Chiefs running back which, you know, maybe that's
bad. I feel pretty strongly that you
know, taking the most expensive one at this point.
Doesn't make a ton of sense especially when they're a
candidate to draft someone or bring someone in through free
agency. I don't, you know, to kind of
your guys's point about Clyde over to layer like he like at
even though he's extremely cheap.
Like the dude just sucks and has basically, Every chance to have
this opportunity at that. Feels like a throwaway McKinnon
is the one I stare at and I have a hard time and I think he's a
justifiable, click there, isn't he?
He's a free agent. That is a fish, right?
Yeah. That's right.
Makes it tough because they brought him a so late last year.
Yeah. I think if the thing with him is
like, it's so binary to me and maybe I'm I'm simplifying this
but like if he goes to the Chiefs he jumps a little bit if
he goes anywhere else, he's like almost on Like if a kid has on
the cheeks I mean maybe like if he's on the bills or you can
invent some other scenario where maybe he has some value, but his
value seems so specific to the Chiefs.
That like I do is also what 31 years old.
There's retirement risk. It's it's a tough one, it feels
like sort of maybe a small win if he goes back to the Chiefs
but like he could I think there's big wind potential
that's what makes it sort of tough is that I mean he was an
absolute smash going in this General rains last year.
And because he doesn't have a contract, you know, you don't
feel comfortable taking him higher than this.
But if he were to resign with the Chiefs, which is the most
likely place for him to resign, I think then I don't know.
He's like probably like a 12th round value.
When you say yeah and I guess, look, I'm trying to sort out
like, how much was this end of like asthma can going into the
playoffs was, like, on fire. I mean, sorry, the, yeah, like
the fantasy playoffs and of the regular season was on fire and
then the playoffs like was just very much.
He's out even in the passing game in favor of Pacheco.
So I'm trying to figure out how much of that was, like, some
injury to McKinnon. The went unreported, verse like
a chat, rude, Changing of the Guard, and they just kind of
wanted to move on from him, that's what's tricky.
But if you average the whole season, then obviously like the
cannon at 165, like he was giving you awesome Spike weeks
the last couple weeks of regular season there.
So it's a tough one. I have to say, I haven't taken
him but I actually think CH at this price is pretty good pick.
He's Thunder, he's under contract McKinnon's of free
agent. Like we just said, so, if what,
if what if McKinnon doesn't resign, it probably makes sense,
right to do some drafts when you mix in a late McKinnon,
especially if he falls. And some drafts.
Are you mixing CH? Because if McKinnon doesn't
sign, CH, is the direct handcuffed to Pacheco and he
can. He does everything.
Even though it is everything poorly, he does do everything,
you know? He can, he can fill in his pass
catcher, they've used him somewhere, around the goal line.
And like, there's, I mean, he's free, he's completely free.
He's on the Chiefs and he's definitely going to be on the
team next year. So I don't actually don't think
it's a terrible, very late, round pick Yeah, it's just it's
just disgusting, I don't know. So you're probably right
rationally, but it like you guys me that know what?
But puke in my mouth feeling when I talk about them every
year, I have a guy who I who I get on board with is an ultra
gross play and I didn't, I'm I'm thinking CH is a pretty Prime
candidate to be that guy, which I would take some joy and given
that I was like completely out on him last year.
It'd be kind of fun to tell 200 plus ch That it, that's what's
so gross about it. It's like you can't at least
with your guys's anti David Montgomery.
Argument at that price, like you can still say there's an
opportunity cost. Relative to the other guys going
around him. It's harder to do that at pick
224. Yeah, exactly.
Yeah. It's tough to argue against I
think what I would say if you are taking CH and I get this
doesn't have to be like exclusive, but I do think I'd be
more interested in taking them on teams where I've taken my
home's. Presumably with a Kelsey.
Stack and I'm making another big bet on the Chiefs offense as a
whole and just being like CH is bad, but he could fall into the
end zone 10 times because he's the lead back kind of thing.
Yeah, we're just gets really lucky.
I mean heat that happened to begin the season member is like
because I didn't have any of them.
So I remember this pretty clearly like he's just getting
completely just luck boxing into all these.
Oh yeah, there were sounds. Yeah, it was awful.
There were ceh. Victory Laps on Twitter after
week five last year and I was absolutely hating.
It is the most sustainable production of all time but you
know whatever like I didn't want to pay, you know, the seventh
round, whatever eighth round price.
Stagg he had last year, but if he's going to go on the 18th
19th round. I mean, I think I have I think I
almost have to start mixing them in.
Yeah, yeah. Well we killed this Show's
ratings, 31 units re-routing. See there's this list of names.
Is, is really discussed. I guess the one we probably
should talk about in his most relevant here.
Aside from the, she's running backs is Alvin Kamara at pick.
79 here. He's falling because people have
really brought to light his suspension risk.
I'm going to blank on who did the thread, but there's a guy in
Twitter does almost Ruben. Lord Davenport does sounds of
them. I think that's who I'm referring
to. You did a good thread on Chimera
suspension risk. And his takeaway was essentially
he thinks that the suspension risk was really high and he
recommended people fade Chimera. So I think there's some
reactions also been pretty on it in terms of like last year he I
was saying like, I don't think he's getting suspended.
Basically. You can you can drag this guy
without worrying about the suspension which ended up being
exactly. Right.
So, but yeah. Now it sounds like the situation
has changed. Yeah.
It sounds bad for him so I guess assuming we're we all think this
is a bad price and let me know or sorry.
Assuming we all think we should still fade Chimera around this
price which I think we're all in agreement there.
Let me know if not I guess I'll put this question to you, Pat.
At at what price would you start to click Chimera?
Like, how much farther what do you have to fall?
Yeah, I've been trying to think about this because I thought he
was somewhat interesting before I realized like you know, when I
came back one of my first impressions like Oh, Come here
and here, okay, I can get on board with this but then I
didn't really register how much suspension risk?
I would be eating by taking him there.
And so I've been trying to think through exactly where because,
okay, let's say you mrs. Like eight games, I mean, you
kind of need him to be priced at like the All of a handcuff
running back like you need to be able to have him not contribute
for a long stretch of the season and have that be.
Okay. So that starts to become
appealing. What like the eighth or ninth
round. So we're getting.
I guess we're getting close. Yeah.
So you're saying like a high-end hang because when you said
initially Hank up, I think of those guys is like more like the
120s 130s, but you're talking like a high-end hand, caustic, a
high-end handcuff, Lee Jay, Dylan type EG doing type, I was
happily taking Rashad white in the ninth and tenth round last
year who I thought would have you know?
But again like that type of profile, right?
He's like not going to give you much much production early in
the season, but you're hoping by midseason.
He's actually contributing. Damaris case.
It's not because he's a rookie coming on it's because he's
returning from suspension but unlike you know a rookie you
feel probably little more confident that come here
actually has a legit role when he gets back.
So yeah it feels yeah feels like maybe the 8th would that would
be my gut feel on it. Pete.
You have any thoughts on on Chimera?
Yeah, that one that one's tough too because I was basically
trying to think that you want three different discounts with
him right? You want the he might be dust
discount you want the offense might suck discount and you want
the suspension risk discount? And so eighth round is just like
On The Fringe there or it's like is that baking in enough of
those discounts if you if you took away is not a Smash in the
eighth he's not he's not a have to take them.
Yeah. Like if you took away the
suspension rest, like if say we knew it was fully healthy was
going to Play start Week 1, projected to play all 17 games.
Like, where do you think he should go in that scenario?
Sick. Sorry.
No, no suspension risk. Where do ya if you have limit?
I'm trying to figure out how much of that baby pea is
attributed to just the suspension risk.
I think this time around 43 and I wouldn't be taking him in the
fifth. I think I'd start to get a
little interested in the sixth. Yeah.
Because because I actually worry about the the he might be done
risk or that they don't know how to use him anymore risk.
Now that Peyton's gone and he's not getting used as the, you
know, the high volume receiving guy, they're running him too
much and also I don't know is efficiencies really dropped and
he's an older back so you start to get pretty nervous when yeah,
those guys Splash inefficiency? Yeah, I think that sounds about,
right? I think I'd be Waiting till like
I think he needs a much bigger fall for me to start taking in
like around pick 100 110 I think.
Okay, this is because like you said the second round, I mean
that 6 round is like picks 6272 and he's only at 79 if you're
saying you take them in the sixth round without the
suspension risk. Then I think you need a pretty
huge discount. I know these are tournaments
that are weighted towards weeks 15 through 17, but I don't know
DeShaun Watson different situation, you know, quarterback
was running back but he was suspended for 12 games last
year. Here.
And he was basically free, right?
Like it's not a one-to-one comparison but I think that
Camaro is price is going to fall much farther than this.
That's probably the best point is that this isn't it?
This isn't where he's going to settle so why take him?
Why kind of kind of Catch A Falling knife?
Is we go down? Like, you might as well wait
until because I don't think that people fully realize How likely
he is to be suspended for a long time.
Yeah I agree with that in the market, always like double
counts, these things to like even if it is priced into his
value. Now that there's a suspension
risk when the suspense suspension is announced like I
think we have a tendency to even double count those things.
I mean it makes sense you would go down anyways.
But anyways like I agree with that point completely I think
he'll fall further and you can get a much better price on them
later if you're interested in drafting chimera, So, let's move
on here to the teams and this chart takes a little more
explaining than the other ones. So what I did here is I looked
at the average of top five players on each team by ATP.
So, for example, for Philadelphia, that would be like
hurts Goddard Avant de AJ Brown probably Mi Sanders and average
that and that comes out to around 40 in terms of average
age, P. And the idea here is to look at
which teams are more or less expensive.
And I also put on the bottom of this chart here, all odds to win
Super Bowls just like a rough proxy of how good we think those
teams are. So, you know, the more expensive
teams should be teams like the eagles, the Bengals, the 49ers,
the bills, the Chiefs, you know, the teams that are sort of
consensus by market odds, highest chance of winning the
Super Bowl. So what this chart Shows here.
I thought, the most potentially interesting thing.
Yeah, there's one question that you had, I did mean to point
this out, these numbers do. So how Underdog like deals with
free agents as they still assign players to their most recent
team? Even if they are free agents for
the most part like this is getting in the weeds here but
Derek Carr is not listed with the team because he was caught
by the Vegas by Las Vegas. But like Schultz is still listed
with Dallas San There's a still listed with the Eagles.
So there's some confounding things going on there where
players that may be leaving, the teams are included with their
teams ATP. So I will point that out, this
will get more accurate as things get more settled.
But anyways, like the biggest thing that jumped out to me here
and this goes to the point on the quarterbacks Kansas City in
Buffalo, they rank in like the top 10 in terms of most expected
to most expensive teams. But they're around like 7th and
8th. And that's what that's part of
the reason why I am totally fine with drafting Patrick Mahone's
and Josh Allen in the second round because you can stack them
up with players at very cheap prices and ultimately not pay
that much. Like I guess you can pair it
with like Jacksonville. If you want to Stack Trevor
Lawrence you had to take like Lawrence and Ridley in like the
fourth and fifth round. If you want to do a Casey stack,
where you just tack on McKinnon The sky more Noah gray, whatever
you can can get gross with it. Some of those players are gonna
be playing valuable snatch the Chiefs, and you can get that
app, really pretty cheap cost. So, I'm okay, I'm like, I really
want to consider this year, not just the price of the individual
player, but the price of the stack, I'm getting with the
quarterbacks, that's something last year that got me on CD lamb
pretty late even though I thought he was a bad value back
was so cheap that I'm like, okay, I'm alright, paying for
CD, if he's a little overpriced, if I think DAC is way
underpriced. I think that's just something we
should be considering going forward.
Anyways, I'll hand it to you. Pat.
Do you think does that change your perspective on the
quarterbacks at all like considering the teammates or so
chief cheap for both homes and Joshua Allen?
It does a little bit. Yeah, I like your point on on
really trying to think through the overall value of the stack
because one thing I find right now is that it's a little hard
to stack as much as I would like, you know, I'm often
finding myself like in around being like this.
Guys, so much better than the other options.
Yes, he's completely uncorrelated with the rest of my
team but I'm just going to take him anyway.
Yeah, and one thing I have noticed to your point on in the
point this chart makes about the Chiefs being pretty cheap mvs is
very very cheap and he's under contract.
Whereas Juiceman Schuster is not and I don't know, I mean, I
guess they could move on from Vs.
They can save, he's got 4 million in debt cap and 11
million dollar cap hit. So I guess they can save seven
million this year by releasing him, although it says nine
million on spell check, but whatever it is, you know, he's
somewhat of a cut candidate but he is currently under contract
at least so that I think that makes him pretty interesting at
price and then yeah Sky more Tony's a little expensive to me
just given that. I think he might be kind of a
gadget guy, but obviously, A lot of upside given his athleticism
and playmaking ability if he's actually out there more next
year, so, yeah. I mean, yeah, it's probably,
it's probably a smart way to think about it.
To get some homes exposure and then just stack it up.
And those teams there are guys that you know, are going to be
on the team. They're going to be under
contract, they're going to have some kind of role.
I see sacrilegious. Mentioning Miami here.
I mean Miami's are really tricky one, right?
Because you have to spend the first and second round pick on
hill and waddle, which I'm fine to do.
I'm fine. That's doable though.
I've done that a number of times, it's doable, but I'm
saying, like then their offense is so concentrated get sick.
He's a free agent. Who's probably going to walk.
Like there's no other guys. You feel like comfortable really
tell. Yeah, gone to a team level bet.
They're, I don't I don't think anybody on and that's actually
why I that's why I think it's viable to go first and second
round because it's so so concentrated.
So you just get this to us so cheap.
I think to. So I mean exactly to was cheap.
So you just get those two plus two and you have your stack
done. It's almost the reverse of the
Mahomes, one where you can just kind of tack on pieces as you
go. Yeah, yeah, I think Miami.
That's a good one to point out where, yeah, I like I think
sacrilegious is making the point against Miami a little bit in
the chat, but, yeah, for me, it's just like, you know, those
are going to be the two guys. Maybe they had some other
people, but I feel so confident that's going to be, I don't
know. 50%, share Miami's passing offense.
If I grab those two guys met, I think even more last year, was
probably even more and they're both so talented to.
It's not like you're just betting on the Uh like they
could add a rookie in. Like, I don't know.
Good luck to that rookie like there's those suits are earning
their targets. Yeah, that makes sense.
The one thing that stood out to me is like, if I was look at
this chart, and say, what's the most overvalued team, I think
it's the Jags to me the prices that are to stack.
The Jags up are pretty expensive.
You have Lawrence going at 55 etn and the third, I think Kirk
and really both and sort of the, the fourth and fifth range.
There's definitely a world where Trevor Lawrence smashes, and
elevates all those guys. And I wouldn't say I want like
0, Trevor Lawrence, but to me, it just stands out as a place
that is potentially overvalued and maybe we can talk about, you
know, really later. I have some more thoughts, but I
think I'm shying away from Jacksonville a little bit based
on this information. I don't know if you guys have
any thoughts on potentially overvalued.
Shawn this chart. Pete, you've made the point
about like, you know, being okay, drafting the homes and
Alan more than this second group of quarterbacks stuff.
And some me, like the guy that jumps out to me, when you say
that it is, is Lawrence Rome? Like does he even have this huge
ceiling? It's a little like, Herbert from
last year, where he was going, you know, it was just like it
was kind of crazy expensive to be able to stack up the Chargers
and it's like our We even sure that his weekly ceiling is on
par with the other guys. The other quarterbacks going in
this range. I don't know.
Yeah, I'm with Sam that Jacksonville feels expensive at
one. I haven't taken Lawrence once I
probably will have like zero percent of him.
As if it's ATP. Is there does it higher
offseason and there's just a general like Dark Horse Buzz
around the Jags and it's not even that Dark Horse because we
saw him in the playoffs but you can go look like even on sports.
In Twitter, like the Jag Super Bowl future is like one of the
most popular ones right now, them in the lion.
So like people are just really enthused about this Jack's team
and then you add Ridley to the mix and it just kind of set this
hype to the stratosphere. So, yeah, I might take has been,
I'd much rather bet a Jags future, then I would like
drafting, you know, Ridley and Trevor Lawrence where they're
going right now. Yeah.
Can I ask you guys about Lamar Jackson, because I was on the
FPC show last night with Eric balk, and he was kind of making
the point that I like, are we sure Jackson is going to be
playing for like anybody if he's like, is there hold out risk
here because he seems pretty intense on this guaranteed
money, this is like real standoff Vibes, because I think
if he, if you make the assumption that like look is
going to get worked out, he's playing He's probably the best
quarterback value on the board at the current prices of
everybody. I mean, he's like, God, he's
going right behind Justin Fields, I think.
And it's like, the hope for Justin Fields is that he is
Lamar Jackson and Jackson even if he doesn't play to the
Ravens, it might be for a better situation.
Like what if the Jets decide to go all in and they go get
Jackson like I think I like him better on the Jets than I do on
the Ravens. So I mean that's like a spot
where, yes, it's still a lot to pay for Jackson, if you're
getting him at like the In the fourth round.
But if you're getting like fourth round, Jackson versus
second round, you know, Josh allopatric homes.
Jalen hurts like, that's, I mean, he belongs with those guys
in terms of his his weekly ceiling Yeah, that one's tough
for me because I have heard more and more that this holdout risk
seems Seems more. And more likely I had the same
thought as you, like, when I opened a DP first time, I
drafted a big board. I was like, Lamar Jackson is the
best QB value relative to other ones, like I was taking him a
lot. If I'm being consistent with how
I'm treating other players and like thinking about ETA, t p
movement, I think Lamar Jackson is ATP is gonna fall a bit
before it rises. Has again.
So I think I want to hold off a little bit and maybe be more at
Market with Lamar, then, like significantly over Market, which
I think I am right now. That said, yeah, it's just hard
to imagine like him, it just feels like posturing right now
and it's hard to imagine him actually.
Not playing the whole season, maybe he gets traded.
Maybe he's unhappy. But I just have a hard time.
Imagining it going to like the extreme of like a levy on bail
type. Mission, but I could be wrong
there. I don't know.
The other thing that stuff and I feel like I'm now walking back.
My thing of like I'd rather take my homes and Allen then, you
know, reach for the Lamar Jackson, the Herbert's or
whatever in the fourth. But when you do look at the two
V2s on, like the wide receivers in those ranges, like you're
getting am on Raw. Jalen waddle Garrett Wilson,
Devonte Smith, the wide receivers going in.
The fourth are Amari Cooper Christian Watson, DeAndre
Hopkins, Chris Godwin. Like yeah.
That to be to is tough. Like I do start to lead toward
the Lamar Jackson side and give me One of those wide receivers
the tags, thirty two point, four million for Jackson this year.
He's not playing for thirty two point four million.
I understand, he doesn't have any long-term, you know,
certainty there, but like God, that seems like you play isn't
the move to do the Kirk Cousins thing where you play out the
tags and then you actually hit free agency and then you get the
guaranteed money. I just hard it's hard for me to
imagine an actual like how does it help his situation to sit out
a year? Like I think.
Yeah, I guess I think the concern is like, I agree with
you Pat. I think the concern is more like
a hold in type situation where he doesn't play on that contract
but like makes it really hard on the team like doesn't meet with
new OC Todd Monken until right before Week 1 like doesn't
really show off like I think that that is like the downside
fear than him like outright just just not playing.
That makes sense. That's a good point.
Yeah, yeah, I don't know. I could just make it ugly for
for the offense but yeah, I have a hard time.
Seeing him like not actually showing up for 30-plus million
or whatever it is. Yeah.
Yeah, but again, we made the phone with Miami like you take
to you, take Tyreke, you need to take Jalen waddle and you have
the entire offense with Baltimore.
You take Lamar you take Mark Andrews and you takes.
You can do. If you're on the turn there,
you're like, right at the 45, turn the three-star, the three,
four turn. You can get Andrews Lamar.
Yeah, Bateman see. Bateman super cheap too.
Yeah. K is I think Dobbins is under
value to the whole the whole team's undervalued.
So yeah, I don't know. I'm talking myself in circles
here. It's a tough situation.
I think I'm Eileen Eileen by and Baltimore more than sell but
acknowledge the risk with Lamar a little bit that he falls.
Yeah. So, we'll go on to the next
slide. Here still looking at teams and
these. So the first, the first chart
was showing the 16 most expensive teams.
Now this is the 16 cheapest teams in terms of average ATP by
top five players ranging all the way from Arizona, Green Bay Las
Vegas Chicago and sort of the middling range.
Two teams that are hilariously cheap like Carolina, where you
can apparently get their top five players that aren't
average. DP of 180.
Yeah, nobody wants anybody to Carolina, which makes sense they
have no quarterback under contract besides Matt Correll.
Anyways, I think it's important here.
Like these are the teams where you can find last year's
Jaguars. I didn't make this chart from
last year but I would guess. You know, the Jaguars would have
shown up in sort of the Chicago, Las Vegas area of this chart,
you know, Lawrence is really cheap, etn wasn't too expensive.
Kirk is a Jones very gentle for the last two years.
Yeah. So to our conversation on the
Jaguars like I think you want to find the next Jaguars and not
bet on you know last year's Jaguars making another jump when
they're already extremely expensive now.
So to me a team here that I'm really excited about and I'm
drafting a ton of is Chicago. Justin Fields is the only
expensive piece here. You can really do like a
Megastar Back once you get Fields you can tack on Herbert.
You can tack on Claypool muneca, Matt, I really like Mooney and
combat just for the values and certainly there's risk that
Chicago brings in a rookie or Frisian wide receiver.
But we've already talked about how, you know, the the
free-agent Waters Seaver class is pretty weak.
I actually think the rookie wide receiver Clacks doesn't have a
ton of depth after the top four or five guys.
So to me if Justin Fields makes that leap and he's worth the you
know, 36 over All pick a pee right now.
Some of those Chicago pass, catchers are going to contribute
Spike weeks over the course of the year.
So I've done a lot of Chicago Mega Stacks sort of informed by
this chart. The I like that.
Yeah, the jet stand out to me to for you know I'm glancing at
your Super Bowl odds and then relative to the price of the
stack and if you do want to do the you know draft like you're
right thing, if you want to say maybe play Rogers to the jet,
something like that Rogers. Is cheap.
Elijah more is very cheap. If you had any interest in a guy
like Jean oven night or Michael Carter, you can get those guys
lay. I mean I like Bruce's price to.
So that seems like a team that could take a really big leap and
outside of Gary Wilson, they're all really affordable.
The thing you can do with Rogers too.
Is you can take I like breeze whole lot where he's going.
So I've been getting him and you can you can take Rogers and then
you can tack on like a hunter, Renfro who, like I don't.
And you know, another guy who's going to be under contract has a
role carved out or you could kind of you could do the
reverse, you know, if you take like a Josh Jacobs or Davante
Adams, you can grab like Elijah more and I because I to me I'm
like he's going he's going to one of the two or if you think
maybe it goes back to Green Bay Romeo dubs is pretty cheap, like
I'll kind of mix-up you know just like some cheap pieces and
I'm doing that in a couple different ways.
You know I've done that with like you get a Colt.
You get a panther and then you go take Anthony Richardson, you
know, or you take Levis and it's like, you know, you've got a
couple different outs, two stacks and I think a lot of
those guys are interesting to begin with like I think.
I'll Pierce is pretty interesting going, very late if
you want to do this and do the price young version.
I think. Neko Collins is actually pretty
interesting. He flashed his a second-year guy
and he's under contract and like I said, I think Cooks is
probably elsewhere so he's like maybe Be like a number one,
receiver kind of a week, number one receiver.
But I think I think I pretty nice value where he's going, so
I'll kind of do that, like I'll throw a couple different darts
at teams that are in the rookie quarterback, mix, and then drop
a couple rookie quarterbacks. Yeah, I think that's smart.
Another team I want to point out here is the Rams.
I think the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction
with the Rams where people are really down on them.
They were in the Super Bowl two years ago and it think Stafford
should be back healthy enough. I don't mind just going you know
Stafford cup higbee Stafford cup.
I don't know. Alan Robinson is disgusting but
I think somebody on the Rams, Will land there as like a
another like a reasonable number to passing option.
Besides cop, it's sort of hard to pick that out but that that
stack is really cheap. I also I like me cuz I believe
and Jefferson to be honest who's in the last year of his rookie
deal. But he's he was out there
running around. So yeah, it's definitely kind of
its kind of a gross one. But I think they're a little a
little too cheap and they separate definitely a feels very
A cheap to me in a situation, where an overall environment,
where the quarterbacks are very expensive.
What is the? I don't actually even understand
why Stafford's going where he's going or people like still
worried. He might retire or something.
I think it's just because even when Cooper cup is healthy like
he's just putting up middling quarterback numbers.
He didn't in 2021 the immediate past, almost 5,000 yards, 41
touchdowns, Yeah, I don't know but I think there's, I think
there still is a bit of a ceiling there with Stafford.
I think people are forgetting it a little bit but he is older.
Like I see the point lot, like when he played last year, it was
very meddling before he got injured, but I don't know, I
think macphails the smartcoach, like, I'd give the Rams like a
chance to turn it around and at least be like, a fringe playoff
team. I think that's like well within
the range of outcomes. And in that scenario I think
like Stafford and cop and someone else give you some
decent scores. But yeah, any other any other
teams here anyone want to make the case for going all in on
like the Texans are the Panthers.
Something really disgusting? Well I will say our guy Nick you
know I have a hard time saying anything nice about the Texans
but I do like the prices of some of the Panthers.
I like both of the Panthers running backs chuba and Deonte
Foreman look like good values. I mentioned djm earlier, I'm not
a huge Terrace Marshall guy but I'm getting I sold a little bit,
but those guys are super cheap and you could see that situation
improve a good bit this year. Look, I think the Texans are a
pretty solid value, like, Damien Pierce, I think, isn't a
terrible pick where he's going, you know, especially in Half
Point PPR, an underdog. Like he's not like someone that
I'm going out of my way to take but I think it's a totally
palatable price to pay for him. And then like I said, I think
Nico Collins is like, kind of wildly underpriced.
He was Of operating in tandem, with Cooks is the top receiver
and of cooks go. If Cook goes like we know what
they're doing the first round right there, taking a
quarterback. So even if they take a second
round wide receiver, I don't know.
That that's like a huge deathblow to Nico.
Collins like he's getting the quarterback upgrade so and
there's outcomes where he gets a quarterback upgrade and he's
like kind of the clear top option there.
I think you'd be kind of a Darnell Mooney, ask number one,
but That's still like a guy. We'd probably taking the ninth
round or something. So I think you can you can I
don't know who else to do it with.
I mean, you can in a way I think you can kind of quote Mega stack
the Texans and take cooks and Collins but what you're probably
really hoping for is that cooks gets traded.
But, you know, you're still sort of benefiting from the
correlation are in a sense of now you now Niko's more
valuable. Yeah, in general, like these
cheaper teams. I think I'm more in favor of
like the running back and wide receiver from the, to the same
team stack. Because what you really betting
on is just that the team is like, everyone thinks the Colts
Patriots Titans, Houston Carolina, Tampa Bay, everyone
thinks these teams just suck and you're benefiting from just the
team being better than expectation if they get lucky
and you know Derek Carr Signs of one of these teams or you know
who knows what happens? Some kind of upgrade that lifts
up every player on the team? I'm more inclined.
Client like on a team like Carolina.
Like I'm fine with just taking like Foreman Hubbard DJ more,
all together like, whatever. I think there's correlation
there if the whole offense is better than expected.
By the way, people point out Houston.
Also picks a 12. So yeah, that probably wouldn't
be great if they brought in Quinton Johnson or something.
But still nothing like that at that price.
I was gonna say just like every mock that I see has them going
quarterback wide receiver with those first two picks.
Just because it's like Logical thing, who knows if they'll do
that but it is a popular happen. If we have to be smashing
Brandin Cooks then, right? Like if they go quarterback wide
receiver he's gone. And and I don't take at least, I
think he still has something left.
He cooks definitely feels like a guy.
Again, we talked about certifiable NFL skill set.
His speed is something that like I have a hard time seeing him
completely falling off the map. Like some NFL team.
I think still values with Brandon Cooks brings to the
table and it's hard to imagine his Team situation getting worse
from what it was last year. So yeah, he's a boring veteran
that I pick 100 I'm betting now. I bet he likes lands in some
situation re ends up going in like the 80s 70s later in the
year, so I just want to take him like, well before that happens,
I mean, he could go to Cleveland, right?
They could really use somebody and, you know, reunite with
DeShaun Watson there something like that.
I think maybe he doesn't go way above where he's going now, but
I think it would go higher Dale. Leslie.
Good one. Good one.
Yeah, that's a great one. Yeah, to Dallas.
Yeah. Dallas desperately needs to make
some kind of move. It wide receiver.
So yeah, I've been thinking about Dallas for like wish
casting every free agent wide receiver ending up there.
All right, let's let's move on to some some of the positional
ADP discussion. Now, this one this week didn't
have a ton of movement so I don't need to spend a ton of
time here. But the idea of this chart, it's
kind of similar to the last chart, where, for each
positional band here, I'm taking the average of a positional
grouping. So for example, for quarterbacks
for qb1, that means I'm looking at the average ATP of all
quarterbacks, drafted 1 through 12 and Tracking how that's
moving about 10 days ago compared to now.
So, in this chart here, you can see the quarterback.
One prices are falling a little bit on average a quarterback.
One is going about for pics later than they were a week ago.
So I think this is just interesting from, like a
structural perspective to keep your eye on what positional
groups are trending up or down, because I think that can really
help you figure out. Oh, wow, you know, are b-2s or
whatever way cheaper than the Than they should be.
I'm going to sort of take a bunch of water receivers early
and then Hammer are BTUs or something along those lines.
So I'll hit on the if you look at where this compares to the
last year because I mean obviously yeah you know the it's
a the time of years changing this as well but I would not be
surprised if in August QB 1s are still going a bit higher than
they were last year. Yeah.
I think I've not looked at that but that would be a good thing
to layer on at some point as we look at this chart.
Yeah, I'd imagine that like quarterback wants are not going
to revert to the mean but they'll probably revert somewhat
there's been a lot of discussion about the quarterback so I don't
know if we needed to talk through that as much.
The one thing that jumped out at unto me here is that running
backs running back three and four switch.
I running backs ranked 25 through 48.
Date basically cost you the same as wide receiver 5 through wide
receivers fives and sixes which makes it you know, it makes
sense of some point, right? Like usually you'll draft more
wide receivers and you draft running backs.
Like, I don't think there's a reason for that but I think to
me that just like it shows that there's a ton of uncertainty in
the running backs right now and people as a result are just like
leaning into the safety of the like talented wide.
Receivers that are sort of certain to have some kind of
role. Whereas like there's more
running backs you know the rookies some of these veteran
free agents that are likely to like completely fall off a
cliff. So anyways I just thought that
was interesting but not a ton of movement here, I don't know.
Ppad. Is you have any any other
thoughts looking at this chart of sort of the positional
movement at ATP One thing that jumped out to me is the tight
ends. I mean it just gets so so rough
after Like dulcich. So I guess taste them Hills,
really are back stuff. And I've taken a fair amount of
taysom Hill because he actually he's another guy.
Who'd like, is under contract, they can't get rid of them
because of his stupid contract and his tight end eligibility.
So, but after him I'm like it's a bunch of guys who like
literally do not have jobs. I mean Hayden Hearst does not
have a job, right? Tyler hit even Tyler hippies
kind of a cut candidate. Mike just sick.
He doesn't have a job. There's a bunch of these guys
are going in this range. Working on their employee.
Yeah. Yeah.
And and I'm like, are they? They're not that good either?
So are they really going to land somewhere and be starters?
We don't Schultz is the most expensive version of these guys.
Evan engram also free agent. He's going pretty.
I yeah. I like more optimistic Erie
signs. They seem to be mutually.
Yeah. Mutual interest there but but
still yeah, I mean if he's not on the Jaguars like it's it
could get pretty bad, we weren't that interested in drafting him
and Ingram last year. So tight end is a position where
I'm trying not to get completely left out in the cold but then at
the same time, you know, spags has talked a lot about this one
Splash play of you can get these rookie tight ends really late.
And I like, I like tacking on a third, rookie tight end or even
drafting, Michael Mayer is my second tight end, but I think
that the rookies kind of help alleviate this problem, but in
general, it's just, it's just tough man.
There's just so many guys, that we don't even know if they have
jobs, like, Daniel Bellinger Clay is like, oh wow.
Okay, I will least he started. At least I know I got a starter
but it's like he to me. Is like yeah, kind of an oasis
in the desert. The other thing that just kind
of interesting to be this year, when you look at the tight end,
one thing and obviously that's being so heavily anchored by
Kelsey's ATP. But you guys think like to that
point about, you know, people liking this rookie Titan class.
I mean, I know a lot of us like these, these sophomore tight
ends as well, who flash toward the end of last year?
Do you think we see any kind of like the modified anchor tight
end stuff, where people really start to come in again, on
kittel on Waller? I know wohlers cheaper but the
pits These guys that now you are getting at even a cheaper price
tag than they were last year. Do you think this, you know,
Chasm is going to continue to hold?
I'm not sure what people do. I thought was interesting that
one of the takeaways from this past year was generally was
like, you know man. We just really shouldn't have
been taken any of these early tight ends.
It's like, I had kill on my team, you know?
And it's like to me, I'm like, I think this year proved just how
powerful really around tight end is because Kittle didn't really
do anything all year until the playoff weeks.
And then It's like because tight end is so gross, that's why it
matters that you have a guy who can I know it feels.
I mean it feels random because it is random that he happened to
have the spike weeks in the right weeks, which a week 15 and
16. But like, because it's such a
gross position that like, almost on its own, Gets You Through a
single week tournament. It's just so, so, so powerful.
And if it ends up being another year, where it's Kelsey, c and a
bunch of nothing. I still want, I still want a guy
who can have a week 15 ceiling game and that be enough to
propel me through and the fact that it's a bunch of nothing
outside of, Kelsey means, if, as long as you didn't spend too
much at the position, overall, you'll probably be fine, you
know, as long as you hit on enough for your team.
So like with with pits going in like the fifth sixth, I'm
interested again. You know, I'm interested in, you
know, I don't want to pay like a Third round price for these guys
warm Kelsey, but you don't really have to go outside of
Andrews. And I actually think Andrews is,
is decently priced there. So, I think he's probably a
probably Cut Above the Rest of the the tight ends Beyond
Kelsey, but I don't know if it's gonna hold, but I kind of like
getting my you know getting some exposure to pockets in and got
her in pits and Andrews at these prices and kettle.
Yeah, I think I think I'm with you there and the Andrew stuff
like I'm still taking a good amount of Andrews.
I think like, there's always sort of ordering bias if you can
call it that and how we think about these players, if Andrews
had finished the season and the fantasy playoffs with that
stretchy, put up at the beginning of the year.
When he was, you know, having a ton of good weeks.
I think he would be priced higher, at least four.
Best blocks would have that in her memory.
Yeah, I agree with you. I won't guys like, Match the
ceiling of Kelsey even if they can't match the consistency,
right? And once you drop drop past like
a certain point. I mean, Tyler, higbee, Gerald
Everett Zach ertz. He was guys are ever.
It's a free agent though. Yeah.
And yeah, yeah, that one is like those.
Yeah, my point is, those guys are like kind of debt like we've
I think I've seen enough of those guys over there, career
that they're sort of like dead to.
Give me a weekly ceiling that that matches.
One of the elite tight ends is the point.
I was trying to make Make. And again, tons of downside risk
that these guys are free agents and replaced by rookies that,
you know, it's a strong tight and rookie class.
So, what is going on with Earth's is ATP?
I mean, like, he's coming off a knee injury, his quarterbacks
coming off a knee injury. There is a rookie kite end
behind him like, I don't know, like he shouldn't even be
getting drafted. Yeah, this and the same thought
on hurts. Yeah, I think he just, he's just
buoyed still by whatever name brand value he has, but like
going back to the, the elite tight end thing.
Now that we're getting these guys at cheaper prices, you can
almost have your cake and eat it too specifically in the big
board with 20 rounds, where, you know, they're, I think there's
more of an opportunity cost. If you're going to verse three
tight ends like invest Ball Mania but the whole thing of
like, the reason you want the kid'll, or the wall art, is
knowing in the money weeks, they could put up a 30 burger and a
lot of Those other guys don't have that capability, but
because you have the luxury of two extra spots, you can get in
a couple extra tight, end Stacks, or you can still get
three tight ends tack on it. Can K2 Michael, marry whoever
you want as your more friends. Like, it feels like less of a
tough choice than it will be. I think in the 18 round drafts.
I agree with that. Yeah. 100%.
Yep. I am also taking some fryer Muth
and some dulcich as kind of the last of though, like I the tear
that I want to sit out at tight end.
Usually I'm not a big fan of like the tight ends going in the
late, single digits, early double-digit rounds.
I usually try to be underweight that group or just happens that
I feel that I want to be under way that group but like, you
know, commit dulcich, fryer move.
I think we're all pretty in toku as well, I think are all pretty.
Eating going in that General range.
Because after them, it's like, dudes who don't have jobs.
And so if I can get, you know, one of those guys or two of
those guys and then tack on, you know, a rookie who might have at
least a small small chance of doing something for me, down the
stretch. I feel pretty good and I feel
like, hey, I got three guys with jobs like that's going to be.
That's like that's like upside these days at the tight end
position I got Dudes with jobs, maybe one of them catches a
touchdown in the playoffs. Yeah, that definitely makes
sense. Yeah, I think that at a certain
point I'd and like you just care about snaps.
We talked about this a lot. If you watch statue using like
tight ends that are seeing 90% of their team snaps and maybe
are bad at football like colca met, I'm not saying he's bad but
maybe he is bad. Those guys can still have spiked
weeks because they're just on the field of town and eventually
the variance is going to swing in their favor.
We saw a three-week stretch last year with Cadet, where he had a
bunch of touchdown some long, long plays down the field.
So yeah, getting that getting that.
At security of the guys that are again.
There's no guarantee that you know, Chicago doesn't draft the
tight end that replaces commit but I feel way more certain that
could met has a role, you know, then adult and Schultz, then you
know, Gerald Everett like I said to the guys were talking about,
so I think it is worth paying a bit for for that role.
Now, let's talk about the rookies quickly, this chart
here, we're looking at Underdog ATP competitive Are to the
consensus Big Board ranking via NFL Mock Jack draft database.
So essentially what NFL mock draft database does for those
who aren't familiar? They take, I think like hundreds
of Industry consensus, ma big boards and aggregate that.
So you kind of have a view of how how NFL teams Scouts media
members Etc? Are viewing.
These players as sort of a signal for their Capital.
Obviously, this is not this is not perfect this time of year
like I wouldn't look at this chart and see where I have
undervalued and overvalued label labeled and say you know this is
100% facts like it's not it's not black and white there's
definitely some gray here this far out before the draft but I
do think it is important to. Look at how draft Capital
protected, draft Capital Compares with these players
atp's. So for me, it Running back.
I'll start with my takeaways. I think that after I think both
Gibbs and Bijan are great pics and then after that, I think I
don't completely understand. Like, the ADP of guys like
sharpen a talker and Spears compared to guys, like a chain,
a chain Evans and Bigsby, it seems like there's a lot of
places where you can just like, Make the Arbitrage.
Pick of the guy that seems like, you'll have just as good draft
capital and it's going like 50 pics later.
Like, for example, if you compare to sharpen a verse a
chain, a chain is going around, pick 150, sharpen is going in
like the late 90s where but you know, industry consensus big
boards actually have a chain going higher than sharpen.
A so for me, it just like, I want to be overweight, ha and I
want to be under under which are today.
Obviously there's still a ton of uncertainty about like where
these guys ultimately land so I'm not going I'm like 100% a
chain and 0% sharpen a like I'm not doing that.
Exactly. But I do want to sort of use
this to inform like what do these prices?
Just just make sense and don't make sense.
So yeah, I guess pal kick it to you.
Do you think there's a good reason for a chain to be going
that much lower than charbonnet? Like, do you see it?
How I see it or do you want to make a counter argument to that
point? I think a counter argument would
be the like Chardonnay and a half Point.
PPR format is just a much more interesting archetype.
He's a big dude. Watching him run.
You're like yeah I think this is going to translate fine.
And you know you can see kind of the touchdown upside and he's
the type of guy who as a third-round pick in a good
situation. We would probably feel pretty
comfortable drafting ahead of a chain as a second round pick and
kind of more of a. Yeah, he's going to be like a
rotational back type of type of guy.
Like I don't think we would have any problem doing that, but we
don't know that's how it's going to go and a chain.
Look, Looks like he's gonna be like it may be a second round
pick in the NFL draft. Maybe he's a third-round pick,
but his speed isn't really in question.
He's a sprinter, it's like documented the dude is really
really fast so I don't get why he goes where he goes.
I mean it's just once he gets drafted, where he's very likely
to get drafted. He will not be being, he won't
get drafted in on Underdog drafts and best ball drafts
where he's being drafted now. So, he seems kind of, he's an
easy click for me, and I don't really love his profile.
I just think If we're talking about getting good prices on
guys, he's one of the most obvious examples of.
Once the NFL draft Capital comes through or becomes exceedingly
clear that it's about to come through there.
Just he's not going to go pick one, 50s going to go earlier
than that. The other question I would ask
you guys about this chart is how big of a distinction?
Do we think it is being a fourth-round?
Rookie running back, pick through a seventh round or six
round just knowing so much of it is going To be driven by
ultimately where they're going the depth chart in the
opportunity like how much I definitely get it for these
early guys I think you know first second, round picks even
third, still matter a lot, but I just wonder on the back end.
If you can draw too many conclusions, even by projected
draft cost. Yeah, I'm kind of with you a
Pete where I think that like for me I sort of think of like first
second third round and then I kind of group fourth to seventh
together and that's not perfect like maybe some early fourth
round picks. Like that's a bit more of a
signal than like a late seventh round.
Pick for the team thinks they're good.
But Yeah, I'm really thinking about it.
Like I want to be focusing a ton on the guys that are getting
draft in those first couple rounds.
And then after that I think it's much more about landing spot and
situation. Then draft Capital once we sort
of get, you know, fourth through seventh round patties.
Do you see that? Similarly Yeah, to some extent.
I think the draft Capital still matters a little bit, you know.
Like sometimes I wonder if some of the early fourth round guys
like I am I think maybe I've underrated some dudes that have
gone in the early 4th especially for the rookie Seasons like,
Michael Carter. I was it?
What are we doing? But it's like no he did actually
get a fair amount of work even as an early for Damian Pierce in
the early 4th so I think maybe running backs it up position.
Or like kind of a point with how the league value sit, where
maybe we should factor that in a little bit more than at least I
have in the past. But yeah, generally I would say
like day 1 Day, 2, Day 3 and then we're looking at situations
and profiles you know I think. Yeah.
Still do. You don't want to just go on A
draft copy of? You want to look at the guys who
were productive and are athletic and can have flashed receiving
ability or have flashed his special talent as as a rusher,
one guy that has jumped out to me.
Is Duane McBride in terms of his.
And is he not on here? He's on the far, right?
Dear a broad. Yeah, okay, so so I've seen
pretty, so maybe these mock drafts disagree the mosque, but
I've been looking at like, you know, ESPN, CBS, Dane Brugler
stuff and it seems like McBride is someone who is kind of in the
mix for like a third-round pick type of type of Dew Drop.
He's got to run. I might when you watch him your
he could run, he could be 47 type of speed and then his draft
Capital just absolutely craters. So that's I think the the real
concern he's not the not a type of guy would be like loading up
on right now, but he goes around pick two hundred and he is kind
of a Damien Pierce type of like pure more.
But even then Damon, he's like Rashad Penny, not quite as fast
more, like the Damien Pierce short bursts, he's type stuff,
but But like penny in that he is going to be a pure to down
rusher. So I guess in that this makes me
a little nervous. I'm seeing that the draft
capitals kind of low for him, but I've seen some people have
him pretty high in the kind of more like the day to mix.
Okay. Yeah.
I think the story is definitely not written on these guys and
like this chart will change a ton once the combine happens,
you know, interviews these flowers.
There's a ton of big events coming out for the These rookie
running back. So I expect this to change a
tan, which is why I'm not like to Anchored on it.
But, you know, as we get closer to the draft, I think these
sorts of like consensus big boards or like relatively
accurate, at least for the first couple rounds.
So, definitely something, I'll keep my my eye on going forward
as we get sort of more information on these players
wide receiver here, I'll show the same view for the rookie
wide receivers. I think the big thing that's
gonna jump out here is and I've heard you know, people talk
about this already, the Quinton Johnson and Jordan Addison verse
Jackson Smith and jig ba, the basic story there is that sort
of NFL Scouts and people making these mock drafts and big boards
generally. See Johnson and Addison going
ahead of Jackson Smith and Jake ba but fantasy drafters are much
more excited about SN he goes around pick 55 whereas Johnson,
Madison, or red around, pick a tea.
So, yeah, I've been thinking about this a lot and trying to
think if I'm missing something, I've largely been fading jsn,
and taking Johnson and Addison, just because I think these
prices are going to come close closer together after the draft.
I could be wrong about that though, I guess?
See you tonight. I think that that's one of those
things that I make that I sort of entertained the possibility
of doing and decided. I'm not going the whole big war
without jsn because a big boards filling too fast.
I don't think there's enough time for people to be out on him
and I'm fundamentally. I don't know that it matters if
he Do I really care if Jason is, pick 23 and Quinton Johnson's
pick 15 in, in relation to. Yeah, I've made a big fade
stance on jsn who I think is very talented.
I think, I think as a ton of upside things are really strong
Prospect, and instead, I'm thinking, no, I'm going to mix
in some jsn. I'm not going to be.
He's too expensive for me to be like all in on right now.
Hopefully if price Falls and I can have more than one other
tournaments at a higher percentage.
The guys that I but I want it, I want to be overweight Addison
and especially Johnston, who I feel like is his price, doesn't
really reflect his draft Capital at all.
So in this tournament I'm hoping be a little under way, Jason,
big-time, overweight, Johnston, and then maybe by the time we
get to the best while Mania, it's more even Yeah, that that's
fair and I think like Jason's fancy profile is probably more
exciting than other two guys. So they should be all I'll be
going close together with maybe JS.
I'm going a little bit higher. I just think the Gap is too big
but I will I do too. Yeah, yeah.
I will probably start taking some jsn.
It's just like putting in context of rookie wide receivers
or the past several years. Like it's a very expensive
price. He's going and sort of like the
Jamar Chase range. He's going well ahead of like
waddle Allah. Vague are Wilson Drake London,
all these other rookie wide receivers that have gone like
you know top 15 and NFL draft and we're really excited about
jsn is going like significantly higher than them with the
exception of Chase. So I'm just thinking like I
don't know like is it and that might be like not the perfect
way to think about it because Chase was a smash at that price.
So like he doesn't have to be chaste to pay off their.
It just seems like A little, a little overvalued but ultimately
not a place where I want like a hard hard fade on him.
That's where I'm at. Yeah.
Awesome. Let's end the show guys.
Talking about, we can put these charts away.
Something I want to keep track of over the course of the year
is just what our favorite values are.
And let's define this as like players.
We think are going to give us the highest closing line value.
Hmm by August or whenever BBM for closes.
So think of it that way curious and starting with you, Pete, who
is your favorite value right now on the big board.
It's funny because of how fluid it was because I got caught up
in some of the Anthony Richardson height because of
spags and Pat. And now he's already like
screaming table draft board. So if you drafted him before
this like you know, in the past week I think you're going to
have some really good CLD there. I believe I had 75% before this
week's. Uh, yeah.
I guess what I'll say I'll continue and I'll say, I'll say
the pan. There's because I did draft a
ton of DJ more. I've been taking chuba and
Deonte Foreman in a ton of drafts like I said, starting to
come around on Terrace Marshall I think all of those guys are
going to continue to rise up and I don't I feel like Carolina
kind of made their decision right?
They moved away from the Bell cow back.
They realized you don't build through that.
They don't strike me as a team that's going to invest a lot
either in the draft or free agency and they're running back
room. I feel like they feel like they
have a good thing going with chuba and Beyond to format and I
think, once people realize that that is going to be kind of the
backfield there, that both of those guys will start to get
thrust up into more of a 0 or B Zone as opposed to just like
completely free. So I'll say the Panthers
backfield, wasn't it? Forms a free agent, right?
I've been taking a lot of hover because Foreman is a free agent.
I think that you're right, that's right.
Yep. Yeah, he was just on a one-year
contract unrestored. Hover was played, pretty well
last year, so, so I think I'll Birds it.
I like Hubbard a lot. I like that call.
Yeah. Like I like Hubbard's, you
haven't taken a much. I think that's a bit of a blind
spot, but that makes a lot of sense.
Pat, who's your, who's your prediction for player that's
going to screen off? The board is the most, so this
isn't exactly screaming up the boards but I think Bruce Hall
you're not getting a 2 3. Turn Breeze Hall in August.
You're just not fair and if you're not, it might be because
his ACL timeline has taken a, a sour turn and you're getting
forth. Fifth round.
Rizal. That's certainly a possibility.
But I think the way things have come out so far, you know, he's
ahead of schedule, he flashed top five fantasy Talent, you
know, I was running things through the the screener that I
use for the legendary running backs article.
You know that, I'll be writing again this summer and Bruce
Hall. Finished number one among all
running backs this year in sort of check in the boxes of what
we're looking for there. Being young, being very
explosive, being very efficient, being A receiver, you know,
he's, you know, I think a very strong candidate to have a
legendary 23 + P PR Point Season, you know, as strong and
Canada as we have probably McCaffrey.
You'd say it's a better bet, but but outside of McCaffrey you
know I think he healthy version of him might be the second best
bet for that like extreme upside on the board and the Jets might
be getting a quarterback upgrade and when I say might be, it's
like almost definitely to some extent will be upgrading over
Zach Wilson. Whether that's Jimmy Garoppolo
whether that's Aaron. Rodgers mean, they?
Well, that's Derek J. Just told Derek card be a
first-ballot hall-of-famer. If he signs with them, like they
are desperate, they're bringing somebody in.
So I don't that doesn't feel fully priced in and the market,
maybe being a little bit more prudent than me right now.
In reflecting the fact that there is some downside risk with
the ACL tear, but I'm confident that things are trending in the
right direction on the health front.
And if that continues to be the case, he's going to be more like
the 108. I think I don't know, maybe he
goes even a little higher than that.
Are you taking him? Because he goes pretty close to
Kenneth Walker. And so I need to adjust my I
think you sort of suede me a bit on Bryce.
But I've been sort of doing the simple thing where I'm like,
guys, going close to Walker. I'm sure.
Walker's healthy. I'm gonna take Walker and it's
over Breeze. Are you pretty confident that he
should be going ahead of Walker? I am Walker did not have a
receiving profile coming in. He played a lot of snaps so if
he played more snaps than I thought he would, but he still
didn't get used to time as a receiver Seattle's.
Not really a team that's prioritized getting the ball to
their running back as a receiver anyway.
And so when you're taking a running back in the first two
rounds, I really do feel strongly that you want them to
have access. Even in best ball, you know,
it's probably more important to manage leagues to be going for
the Mega ceiling pics, but I think even at best ball.
You want guys, at least have access to the Mega legendary
type seasons. And I think Hall has a much much
stronger profile there just because of the receiving and
he's just as explosive as Walker.
And I think he's Walker really struggled with consistency, his
success rate in NFL next-gen success rate on him.
He was pretty bad and just watching him you know you get
stuffed a lot of the line. He's a very Much kind of a
hit-or-miss explosion back. That doesn't strike me.
Really the type of guy who's all that likely to put up an
incredible season on the ground. I think you're more looking at
some some nice Spike weeks mixed in.
So I don't mind Walker where he's going, but briefs strikes
me as someone who could end up being a smashing in a similar
way to like how Sake One Barkley was going around the two, three
turn at the start of drops last year and then by the end, you
know, he's going in the late first.
Okay. Yeah, you saw me a bit on on
Hall, I think. I need to definitely adjust my
stance on him. So my favorite value in this is
getting into a grocer name then then haul.
But my favorite right now, valued right now is Rashad penny
at ADP of 185 and this is maybe going slightly against what we
were talking about earlier where it's like some of these free
agent running backs. Could be really left out.
But I think with Penny that's already fully baked in at that
low of a ADP, and he's just way too talented of a running back
to be going that late. I really see him as sort of a,
you know, big hit small loss type player.
We're even like, you know if you re signs with Seattle and maybe
that should be the market expectation, right now, he
should be going and sort of like the talented handcuffed and type
range around like pick 130 to 140.
I think where it's just a contingent play that Walker goes
down and and Penny becomes the lead guy but there's also tons
of upside Rio's where he lands, you know, on a team where you
can compete for a starting job. Maybe the Bears competing with
Khalil Herbert maybe Philadelphia if Sanders leaves
Buffalo, if Singletary leaves. Like, there's some upside
scenarios where you could push for a starting job and some on
some good teams. So I just think overall, like I
have a hard time seeing how is ATP Falls from pick 185?
So I have like 50 plus percent exposure to Richard Penny had
think again and back to the talent.
He's he's just a really talented running back.
I think he had that amazing stretch the end of 2021.
He's only 27 years old. Like I don't get what I'm
missing at that price. I just think he's a mega smash
I'm with you. I've been taking a lot of them.
He reminds me a little bit. Maybe a of, you know, how James
Conner, two years ago was was a smashing and, you know, he
obviously came up in price once he landed with the Cardinals but
I could see him doing that to someone coming in and being
like, okay, you're here to be behind this other guy.
He's like, no, I'm not. I'm just starting running back.
Yeah, I definitely see the snares with him and it's, yeah,
it's the, you know, the injury-prone discount that we
see in a lot of players. It's may be justified a bit for
Penny because of his career, but this injury.
Was you know it wasn't something that I think you can chalk up to
injury-prone this so I'm not too worried about that.
Awesome. Well that's that's all I have
for today. Again, really excited to be be
doing the show this off season Davis will be joining, although
we ended up touting. Both CH and taysom hill without
him. So I'm not really on the show.
Our work is done here. Yeah, well I do have a, I'm
imagining Davis in in the lift in the gondola, you know, just
listening to this pot and be like, all right, all right, they
got it, they covered it. Like Covered it.
Well, as someone who, you know, Davis hangs out in the deposit
Kingdom disk, or, and I see how much he's been posting and some
of the other channels and he doesn't seem like he's
unplugging on the slopes, what I can tell.
So I have kind of surprised. He didn't even find a way to get
on this, but yeah, Sam, awesome day Buicks super excited to host
you here on ship chasing over the course of the summer.
I think we'll probably kind of have to tweak the schedule just
a teeny bit. We'll find more of a time
though, that you guys can all Bank on and you can On Sam and
Davis and then you know Pat and myself and Gretsch cycling
through when we can. But you guys are going to be in
great hands with Sam, the charts are awesome.
Sam are going to make those charts available on Twitter as
well after the show's. Yeah, I'll be, I'll be posting
the charred. I haven't figured out exactly.
But they'll be public on Twitter or some other medium throughout
the course of the offseason. So for those of you listening
Along on audio and highly recommend looking at the charts
because, you know, we've just drawn, a few conclusions, you
can definitely look at them and take your own spin on things of
highly recommend that. Yeah, for sure.
Alright guys, we appreciate you. We will be back as usual on
Wednesday at 9:15. Thank you to Sam for getting us
rolling with ATP. Chasing, thank you to Pat for
hanging out. Thank you to you guys in the
chat. Awesome chat today, by the way,
you guys were bringing bringing the Heat and adding some really
nice additional context to everything, so you guys are rock
stars. As always, feel free to join us
in the ship chasing Discord. If you're a YouTube member happy
to help you get that set up Tech.
Wise, if you are struggling with that, but enjoy your weekends
for Sam, for Pat and Pete. See you on Wednesday.