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Alright guys, welcome to a very 
special new addition to the ship

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chasing Channel. 
You guys know Sam Sherman from 

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his work with us on stat chasing
throughout the offseason. 

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We are spinning up a new show 
that's going to be weekly on 

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Fridays hosted by Sam and 
regularly. 

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Davis Matic he's not here with 
us today. 

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Pat Crane and I are going to 
Adjoining though, as wingmen on 

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this show, Gretsch will be 
swinging by at times, but 

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basically the goal of this show 
is to do a focus on the ADP 

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landscape across various best 
ball contest, looking at 

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movement, how you can exploit it
really approaching it from a 

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market standpoint, which is as 
important as ever with these 

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draft, contests up for specific 
duration, some of them spanning 

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months, some of them spanning 
weeks, Sam and crew are going to

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be your One-Stop shop for 
staying on top of all of this 

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stuff. 
So you can exploit it in your 

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drafts. 
So without further Ado, let's 

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get to the debut episode. 
I sewed of ATP, chasing fryer, 

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homos and job. 
I said you're the sounds good to

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me. 
Yeah. 

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Well anyways I'm really excited 
to be kicking the show off. 

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Guys. 
Yeah, Pete. 

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You did an awesome job 
explaining the concept of the 

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show and the intro but I will be
here all summer talking through 

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through ATP. 
And I think it's really 

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important, you know, as we start
to get more news and hype Cycles

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are different players really 
tracking how players are moving 

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and make sure we we update our 
our stances accordingly. 

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So yeah. 
So this would be an awesome show

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looking forward to it. 
And yeah, Pat or Pete, any other

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any other thoughts on the show 
before we sort of dive into the,

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to the numbers here? 
No, I'm excited. 

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I mean I think Pete's point 
about you know thus becoming 

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like more and more Market basis 
important one of the things I 

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want to eventually dive into 
with you guys is like trying to 

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make that we be projecting like 
when these tournaments are going

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to fill because like I actually 
think I did some bad stuff in 

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the Big Board because I thought 
it was going to take longer to 

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fill then it will, you know. 
So it's like when you know like 

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when you have something with 
best while Mania though we're 

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you know it's gonna stretch that
whole span I do. 

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I think it's just absolutely 
crucial to understand where the 

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atp's are going to end up. 
And where where you might be 

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getting the best price on a guy 
even if you don't love him at 

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that price. 
Yeah and you're having to Think 

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Through not only win are the 
contest going to fill but like 

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how big your portfolio is going 
to be? 

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Because I've been saying in 
these big board rafts like I've 

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been passing on these early 
quarterbacks but then I'm like 

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do I really want this you know 
draft to close and I have zero 

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Elite quarterback and the second
or third round where it's like 

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sure maybe I get my shares of 
those in different contests 

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throughout the summer but if I 
actually want a specific 

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portfolio in This contest I need
to start thinking about that 

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soon and knowing are these atp's
going to change or do I just 

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need to start biting the bullet 
and mixing those guys in now. 

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Yeah, I think that's a great 
point with the quarterbacks is I

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had that same stance initially 
and now it looks like by the end

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of this tournament. 
Like those quarterback atp's 

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especially hurts Mahomes Alan. 
They're probably not going to 

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move by the time. 
This contest feels so like, I've

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updated my stance and that where
I'm starting to take those guys.

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I don't want a full fade them, 
but yeah, to your original Point

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Pat I think starting to track 
the fill rates for these 

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tournaments is especially like a
fastball Mania. 

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If that looks like it's filling 
quicker than expected and you 

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know, We'll see about that. 
That would really change how we 

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approach things. 
So for sure. 

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Good thing to track going 
forward. 

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I the the conversation about 
like the quarterbacks is a 

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really interesting one to me. 
I don't know if we want to dive 

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into that now or if I'm 
derailing Us by by diving in, 

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but I just think like part of me
is like you know what, I am 

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going to full fadem, I'm going 
to full fade Josh out and Pat 

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Mahomes in this tournament 
obviously not in my 2023 

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portfolio. 
That'd be kind of crazy but what

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if If the way to attack the big 
board is not to draft second 

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round Mahomes like that might 
just might be that. 

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That's not like the best way to 
do it and maybe my portfolio is 

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going to be all teams that are, 
you know, built differently than

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that. 
And if that ends up being an 

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edge, then, you know I have an 
edge in that tournament and 

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maybe I can get some more like, 
get a team through to the 

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finals. 
Yeah. 

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If it doesn't, then then I wash 
out on that tournament, but I 

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think there's enough Moments 
where I think that's another 

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option. 
Like you can think through like 

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in this tournament I'm taking 
like a stance and that stance is

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limited to this specific 
tournament in the specific time 

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period. 
And if I completely blow it, if 

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I'm just totally wrong then I 
will have other chances to take 

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different stances orders to kind
of be more in line with the 

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market generally and not be so 
aggressive. 

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Yeah, I think it definitely 
makes sense and I have some 

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thoughts, some more thoughts on 
the quarterbacks but I think we 

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can definitely talk through this
as we go through some of the 

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charts here. 
So yeah, let's dive into it. 

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And before we do it let me give 
like a quick overview to the 

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listeners of what we're gonna be
talking through each week. 

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First we'll start by talking 
about players ATP Rogers and 

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fallers, that's a pretty 
straightforward concept. 

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Then we'll also look at things 
at the team level. 

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The positional level so we'll be
tracking how you know how we're 

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Kansas City players, tracking 
verse Chicago, players vs. 

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Houston players, that sort of 
thing to really get get a view 

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of, okay? 
I thought Mega stacking the 

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bills. 
How much am I paying for that? 

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And then at the positional level
we also want to be tracking how 

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are the are be ones moving 
relative to the wide receiver 

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ones you know, and additional 
detailed there. 

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So we'll be looking at all 
angles, not just individual 

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players but some further team 
and positional level context. 

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As well. 
Yeah, that's let's dive into it.

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I'll add these charts to the 
stream here so so people can 

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follow along. 
But this, this first chart here,

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I think is, is really 
interesting. 

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These are the largest ATP risers
from February 15th to February 

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24th, which is today and I'll 
leave this one up for a second. 

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I think like seven out of ten of
these players are rookies, which

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I think I'm drafting all the 
think. 

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This might be Pat crane returns 
from Indonesia. 

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How did you Kobe Myers sneak 
onto this list to? 

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He's like, I'm drafting to go. 
We Mars, I'm drowning because I 

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think some of these, I think 
some of these Ultra boring 

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veterans are undervalued and I 
like the rookies I think 

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literally I've drafted every one
of these players. 

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Yeah. 
I like all these rookies to. 

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We have like another deep dive 
in the rookies. 

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So let's let's start with 
talking about the veterans and 

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we'll dive into the rookies 
later. 

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So this year, I just removed 
remove the rookies here. 

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Here, the biggest risers with, 
just the veterans. 

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And yeah, let's start with the 
conversation around Jacoby Myers

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Pat interested in. 
Why you think why he's a value 

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at 98 overall, he's rising over 
the past couple weeks. 

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So I don't love Jacoby Mars, but
I think, I think he's viable. 

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And what I, the reason that I am
someone interested in him, is 

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that The overall like player 
pool right now, strikes me is 

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one where once you get to about 
like the ninth round, there's 

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like no wide receivers left and 
you can you can maybe see 

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Brandon Cooks there and I 
actually really like Brandon 

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Cooks. 
I think Cooks is not done and 

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won't be in Houston and even if 
he is in Houston is gonna have a

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quarterback upgrade. 
So I think he's someone we're 

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like he's probably a pretty 
solid pick. 

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Maybe is not a smash if he stays
in Houston. 

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But I think their scenarios 
where he lands somewhere kind of

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exciting and ends up being like 
a seventh-round pick or 

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sixth-round pick that like the 
ship chasing Collective thinks 

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is like a bad pick, but I'd 
like, hey, I'm getting him in 

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the night. 
So, but in Jacoby, Mars is sort 

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of a similar bet. 
I think where he's a free agent.

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I don't always like going after 
free agents at there's a lot of 

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downside with free agents but in
Jacoby Meyers case, he's been 

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very solid. 
I think he serves like a It role

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for an NFL team. 
So I think he'll land somewhere 

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and be pretty productive and 
it's more like it's just feels 

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like he's sort of last call for 
you know, professional wide 

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receivers. 
Yeah I like Myers. 

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I'm not sure like at 98, some of
the value might be squeezed out 

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there but you know one point 
nine yards for outrun last year 

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he averaged close to 16, PPR 
points per game and that wasn't 

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a New England offense that, you 
know, Sherry, you could argue 

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good week talking competition. 
So maybe that perhaps not but at

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the same time like the past 
volume was pretty bad. 

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You know, Matt Patricia was the 
offensive coordinator, it wasn't

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the best situation and give them
the free-agent wide. 

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Receiver class is so weak. 
I do see scenarios where Myers 

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goes to a team like the Chiefs 
are Dallas, maybe even the 

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Chargers if they move on for 
Keenan Allen and want a cheaper.

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Yeah. 
What if they cut Keenan? 

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Allen is bringing Jacoby Mars. 
I mean, marzu fifth round pick. 

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So he is, I know, we're not 
taking the fifth round. 

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He's probably going there, you 
know? 

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So he prayed I think he probably
goes more were like Brandin 

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Cooks went last year, you know, 
where it's like, I think he 

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would go ahead of where Brandon 
Cooks on last year because he 

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was on the Texans. 
Yeah. 

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But all right, anyways, in 
general, and maybe Paris 

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Campbell, like, fits the the 
trend here to at an even better 

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price, like some of these 
free-agent Waters severs to your

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point. 
Pat, I think you're going to 

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land in good. 
Spots? 

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Like Campbell, charc Myers. 
It's a week free agent class. 

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One of those guys is going to 
get one of these attractive 

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spots that we're talking about 
and shoot way up the board. 

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So, I think in general, I'm kind
of buying the, the veteran free 

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agent wide receivers just 
because there's a lot of 

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uncertainty baked in their 
price. 

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I'm actually generally not 
buying them because I'm like, 

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not, I like it because it's a 
week class of. 

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And so, from the talent base 
perspective, I'm pretty Shaky on

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Paris, Campbell is never really 
shown much. 

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I know he's been hurt a lot but 
DJ shark. 

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I think he has flash more 
talent. 

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But even in his breakout season 
he wasn't all that fishing in 

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terms of yards per outrun and 
he's dealt with injuries. 

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So I don't love like one of 
those. 

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I like Myers is that I don't 
like dipping into like some of 

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these free agent wide receiver 
bets later Darius Layton is 

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another one. 
You guys know that I liked Terry

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Slayton but I don't I don't know
where he's going to be and I 

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think one thing that kind of the
fantasy Community, maybe like 

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doesn't do a good enough job of 
this is kind of coming from my 

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Dynasty lenses. 
Like when you do Dynasty ranks, 

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there's like a huge list of 
dudes that you just don't rank 

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anymore every year where it's 
like, oh yeah, like Keelan coal 

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used to be a guy like, you know,
like there's we just forget and 

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then like we just wipe those 
dudes from our brain and there's

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a bunch of guys Currently being 
drafted, who are those dudes? 

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Who are just like gonna have 
like next year, we will have 

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forgotten existed. 
So I think maybe like some of 

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the, we might be overly 
optimistic on some of these non 

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differentiating. 
Type of talents Who currently 

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don't have contracts. 
Yeah, that's fair to me. 

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Like maybe Campbell is about 
example. 

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I mean he is so cheap so I 
can't. 

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Are you too much against taking 
them with like sort of a last 

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round pick shark to me seems 
like a guy that has like sort of

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a certified NFL skill set. 
That an NFL team will value like

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I have a hard time. 
Imagining him complete? 

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Yeah, that's all. 
I'm off the radar but I see what

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you're saying. 
Like there's definitely there's 

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upside and risk with with these 
fries and wide receivers there 

225
00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:41,600
could be way less. 
Target that may expect, you 

226
00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:45,300
know, could be a will Fuller 
just never signed ever 

227
00:12:45,500 --> 00:12:47,900
situation. 
So, I mean, I'm not drafted many

228
00:12:47,900 --> 00:12:49,500
more. 
That's you, let me down. 

229
00:12:49,500 --> 00:12:53,100
Will you let me down? 
What think I should say? 

230
00:12:53,100 --> 00:12:56,700
If you are listening to this in 
audio form, Sam has incredible 

231
00:12:56,700 --> 00:12:58,900
charts that were displaying on 
screen right now. 

232
00:12:58,900 --> 00:13:02,300
So, we're looking at ATP risers 
from February 15th 24. 

233
00:13:02,300 --> 00:13:04,700
So, if you are some, for some 
reason, listening this in audio 

234
00:13:04,700 --> 00:13:07,500
form, do check out the video 
here. 

235
00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:10,100
What do you guys think of like 
looking at these? 

236
00:13:10,300 --> 00:13:12,000
Names. 
Like I feel like you can tell 

237
00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:16,100
yourself the reason why most of 
these guys have moved the DJ 

238
00:13:16,100 --> 00:13:19,000
more stuff, was that? 
Just like his ATP, whatever it 

239
00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:21,400
came out of the gate and people 
were anchored to it earlier, he 

240
00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:23,500
just seemed Miss price right 
away. 

241
00:13:23,500 --> 00:13:25,600
Was there anything else that was
thrusting it up other than 

242
00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:27,300
people saying? 
Hey, this is mispriced. 

243
00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:31,700
I don't know. 
I mean, I think maybe Frank 

244
00:13:31,700 --> 00:13:33,800
Reich, you know, people are 
starting to feel a little bit 

245
00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:37,000
more optimistic about the 
situation and then maybe feeling

246
00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:40,100
like more optimistic that they 
do upgrade their quarterback. 

247
00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:44,900
You know, seeing Anthony 
Richardson have his ATP bump up 

248
00:13:44,900 --> 00:13:48,000
as people start to realize that 
he might go top 10. 

249
00:13:48,300 --> 00:13:51,800
And, you know, maybe he goes to 
the Panthers, maybe they bring 

250
00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:55,300
in, there's like four options, 
it seems like that. 

251
00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:58,800
The Panthers could for early 
quarterback options in this 

252
00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:00,100
class, which should help the 
Panthers land. 

253
00:14:00,100 --> 00:14:03,800
Somebody. 
So that quarterback upgrade, 

254
00:14:03,900 --> 00:14:05,800
maybe wasn't pricing enough to 
begin with. 

255
00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:08,300
Not that it's guarantee, but 
it's good chance. 

256
00:14:09,100 --> 00:14:11,100
Yeah. 
I don't know. 

257
00:14:11,100 --> 00:14:15,600
I like you know I know ship 
chasing is always love DJ more, 

258
00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:20,500
but I do think there is a bit of
a case against him at this cost.

259
00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:24,800
I mean in 2022, he just came off
his Worst season in terms of 

260
00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:28,700
yards per route, Ron used on to 
1.74 after being like close to 

261
00:14:28,700 --> 00:14:31,400
24 his whole career. 
Obviously, the quarterback play 

262
00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:34,600
was bad but again, quarterback 
plays generally been bad as 

263
00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:37,000
whole career. 
And this year, he maybe had the 

264
00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:40,000
worst Target competition of his 
entire career, like he no longer

265
00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:42,400
works. 
Meeting with McCaffrey no longer

266
00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:44,800
competing with Curtis Samuel, 
Robbie Anderson sort of 

267
00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:49,600
competent veterans. 
He also and I know you've 

268
00:14:49,700 --> 00:14:53,800
mentioned this ESPN open Score 
which I think is pretty 

269
00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:55,000
interesting to check out from 
last year. 

270
00:14:55,000 --> 00:15:00,200
He ranked 89 that of 111 in that
behind guys like Gabe Davis, 

271
00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:03,800
George Pickens Mike Williams 
guys were not known as get 

272
00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:07,200
separators so I don't know. 
I just want to be wary of like 

273
00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:10,100
obviously still young like he's 
shown a lot and his crew. 

274
00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:12,900
Year. 
But for a guy that's had, you 

275
00:15:12,900 --> 00:15:17,300
know, maximum 16 point PPR 
points per game over his entire 

276
00:15:17,300 --> 00:15:20,500
career. 
It feels a little, it feels a 

277
00:15:20,500 --> 00:15:24,100
little pricey for me. 
Coming off a bad year but yeah, 

278
00:15:24,100 --> 00:15:26,200
I don't know how much to read 
into like his down your last 

279
00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:30,000
year going forward. 
I think that's fair. 

280
00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:33,500
I haven't been like I wasn't 
smashing him even when he was 

281
00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:36,300
cheaper, he was someone, I was 
like happy to see there, but 

282
00:15:36,300 --> 00:15:39,400
he's part of a big group of wide
receivers in that General range 

283
00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:42,900
that I liked. 
And so he didn't jump out to me 

284
00:15:42,900 --> 00:15:47,300
is like, the must draft of that 
group, which as someone who's 

285
00:15:47,500 --> 00:15:51,400
always been very high on DJ 
more, is basically me being low 

286
00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:54,600
on him. 
Yeah, I mean his Louis and this 

287
00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:56,900
is full point. 
PPR his lowest PPR finish over 

288
00:15:56,900 --> 00:15:59,200
the past three years has been 
wide receiver 25. 

289
00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:02,700
And that's been running bad on 
touchdowns never have a good 

290
00:16:02,700 --> 00:16:05,600
quarterback play. 
So it seems like to me like a 

291
00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:08,100
pretty high floor pick and then 
maybe there's some meat on the 

292
00:16:08,100 --> 00:16:11,200
bone if they figure out 
quarterback, if Josh McCown Tsar

293
00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:14,000
Revelation as a quarterbacks 
coach if Reich has, who knows? 

294
00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:18,300
But it just it seems like a 
solid pick even maybe maybe it's

295
00:16:18,300 --> 00:16:21,000
been priced out but when he was 
going in the sixth round, I mean

296
00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:26,700
that felt like a smash to me. 
I'd also note that in 2021 he 

297
00:16:26,700 --> 00:16:30,700
finished wide receiver 11 in 
ESPN's open Score head of Cooper

298
00:16:30,700 --> 00:16:38,500
cup head of Tyree kill and he's 
turning 26 in April so I would 

299
00:16:38,500 --> 00:16:41,600
be not over. 
He concerned with the fact that 

300
00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:44,100
he had like someone had 
genuinely down year. 

301
00:16:44,100 --> 00:16:47,200
He was the kind of having like 
separating, like a Michael 

302
00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:49,200
Pittman, which is not, not 
great. 

303
00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:52,300
Given that he's kind of more of 
the Yards after catch Speedy 

304
00:16:52,300 --> 00:16:57,500
undersized guy, but in the past,
he has gotten open very well. 

305
00:16:57,500 --> 00:17:00,500
And, you know, maybe that's an 
offensive design thing to an 

306
00:17:00,500 --> 00:17:03,000
extent, so I wouldn't be overly 
concerned. 

307
00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:05,700
Yeah, it doesn't seem like 
there's any structural reasons. 

308
00:17:05,700 --> 00:17:08,500
You should have had such a 
serious decline last year, so 

309
00:17:08,500 --> 00:17:10,300
I'm willing to like, chalk it 
up. 

310
00:17:10,300 --> 00:17:13,599
Up is probably mostly noise and 
just like a terrible situation 

311
00:17:13,599 --> 00:17:17,099
but yeah just something. 
Something worth monitoring. 

312
00:17:20,900 --> 00:17:24,200
Cool. 
Let's I think, let's move on to 

313
00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:27,500
the fallers in a teepee. 
And I guess for the audio 

314
00:17:27,500 --> 00:17:31,500
listeners, the other guys who 
jump out here as risers, and 

315
00:17:31,700 --> 00:17:33,900
maybe we won't discuss them in 
detail, about worth mentioning 

316
00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:39,400
Sam, Howell Kenny gain. 
Well, Isaiah Hodgins Jacoby & 

317
00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:44,100
Meyers Curtis Samuel Sky More DJ
more Trail ants short in love 

318
00:17:44,100 --> 00:17:50,300
and the sky more Pat came back. 
I actually did want to talk 

319
00:17:50,300 --> 00:17:52,100
about gained while here before I
move on. 

320
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:58,400
I think that this rise is 
probably like some effect of the

321
00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:04,000
Super Bowl. 
Snap share break out between 

322
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:07,500
gain well and mile Sanders. 
He actually out snapped Sanders 

323
00:18:07,500 --> 00:18:11,300
in the Super Bowl in a game 
where Philadelphia was forced to

324
00:18:11,300 --> 00:18:13,500
pass. 
I was actually talking about 

325
00:18:13,500 --> 00:18:15,900
that earlier in the postseason 
where gain well, snap share 

326
00:18:15,900 --> 00:18:18,200
might have been artificially low
throughout the entire season 

327
00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:20,900
because They were just blowing 
out teams and didn't really have

328
00:18:20,900 --> 00:18:24,600
to get that up-tempo usage with 
him as the passing down back. 

329
00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:30,700
But yeah, I'd pick 128. 
I'm curious what you think Pete 

330
00:18:30,700 --> 00:18:34,200
as to whether that's still a 
value with gain wild. 

331
00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,500
Like do you think we there's any
chance he becomes a starter next

332
00:18:37,500 --> 00:18:41,400
year in Philadelphia or how are 
you treating him at that price? 

333
00:18:42,100 --> 00:18:45,400
Yeah, I guess I'm kind of 
ambivalent or neutral on it. 

334
00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:48,400
It just seems like his path to 
being. 

335
00:18:48,500 --> 00:18:50,500
A lead back or just really thin 
right? 

336
00:18:50,500 --> 00:18:52,700
Like no matter what happens, 
they're going to use a Bruiser 

337
00:18:52,700 --> 00:18:55,600
back and then on top of that I 
think we all hope he was going 

338
00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:58,900
to have more of a pass-catching 
role this year and be used, you 

339
00:18:58,900 --> 00:19:02,200
know, exclusively in that and he
didn't catch a ton of passes 

340
00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:04,700
this year either. 
And I know he came down late or 

341
00:19:04,700 --> 00:19:07,600
came on late down the stretch. 
So, maybe where are we do? 

342
00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:09,600
We feel comfortable 
extrapolating that a little bit 

343
00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:11,800
more. 
That's kind of my concern with 

344
00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:14,400
him because how he was used for 
most of the regular season was 

345
00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:18,400
not very encouraging. 
It wasn't, but I really like him

346
00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:20,600
actually. 
I've been drafting a lot of 

347
00:19:20,608 --> 00:19:23,900
them. 
And, you know, if there's anyone

348
00:19:23,900 --> 00:19:27,800
that I actually like maybe have 
been partially responsible for 

349
00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:29,500
pushing up, I would say it's 
probably game. 

350
00:19:29,500 --> 00:19:33,700
Well, he just feels like kind of
a small Miss Big Win type of 

351
00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:38,000
profile where I feel confident 
that he's talented, you know, 

352
00:19:38,008 --> 00:19:41,500
he's on a rookie deal. 
He's kind of got like, he's 

353
00:19:41,500 --> 00:19:45,400
carved out a roll. 
It's not the biggest role but 

354
00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,400
miles. 
Sanders is a free agent. 

355
00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:52,300
There's a chance where they 
bring in one of the many rookies

356
00:19:52,300 --> 00:19:54,800
in this class. 
We're pretty interesting as kind

357
00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:59,400
of an early down guy but the 
game will out plays that guy and

358
00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:03,400
ends up being, you know, kind of
a 1A or in a split but he gets 

359
00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,500
enough receiving work. 
We're in a true split more of a 

360
00:20:06,500 --> 00:20:09,000
split than he had with Sanders. 
He'd be pretty interesting. 

361
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:12,300
I don't he doesn't strike me as 
like maybe he's more like a 

362
00:20:12,308 --> 00:20:14,800
medium win. 
Small Miss type of guy because I

363
00:20:14,808 --> 00:20:17,000
don't think he has this Super 
juicy upside. 

364
00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,800
I think like, they won't really 
use them at all that, much 

365
00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:21,100
around the goal line, most 
likely. 

366
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,400
But there was a, there was a 
game against the Cowboys where 

367
00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:26,500
they used him on four, straight 
carries inside the Red Zone. 

368
00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:30,200
The the I believe it culminated.
He picked up a first down in 

369
00:20:30,208 --> 00:20:32,600
that culminated with a gardner. 
Minshew quarterback sneak for 

370
00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,300
the touchdown. 
But Sanders, you know, they 

371
00:20:35,300 --> 00:20:37,200
could have been going to him 
there and they went to gain wall

372
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:38,400
instead. 
So I don't think he's completely

373
00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:41,700
dead to get used some around the
goal line. 

374
00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:47,000
And the thing I really like 
about him is Let's say they just

375
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:51,900
re-signed Sanders in 11th round 
price tag for Sanders 

376
00:20:51,900 --> 00:20:54,400
handcuffed. 
He isn't bad right in this 

377
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:58,100
offense like that's what it 
that's maybe a round or two 

378
00:20:58,100 --> 00:21:01,200
rounds more than you'd prefer 
but like that's where I think 

379
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:05,900
it's a small Miss where you're 
really not paying that much of a

380
00:21:05,908 --> 00:21:08,800
premium on on what we would pay 
for, just the pure handcuffs. 

381
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:11,800
So any upside that you can 
foresee like I guess we can 

382
00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:13,200
quibble about how much of it is 
outside. 

383
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:15,300
The really is. 
But to me it's not really. 

384
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,300
That not that much of a premium 
that you're paying to get it. 

385
00:21:18,700 --> 00:21:20,500
Yeah, here's a question for you 
Sam. 

386
00:21:20,500 --> 00:21:24,500
Like how it again, with this 
draft being unique or big board 

387
00:21:24,500 --> 00:21:26,400
stuff with this closing before 
the NFL draft. 

388
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:30,600
How are you thinking in general 
about a DPS in your portfolio of

389
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:32,400
these running backs? 
The phrase, I always use is 

390
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:35,600
where the bombs could go off. 
Whether it's getting they draft 

391
00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:38,700
someone whether they bring 
someone in with free agency, are

392
00:21:38,700 --> 00:21:40,300
you always wanting to play it 
through the cheaper? 

393
00:21:40,300 --> 00:21:43,700
Running back in those ambiguous 
situations like because I do 

394
00:21:43,700 --> 00:21:45,600
think gain well is a good one to
view it through. 

395
00:21:45,700 --> 00:21:49,500
That lens. 
Yeah, I think like it's really 

396
00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:51,800
context-dependent. 
But if you talk about the Eagles

397
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:57,300
as an example, I think like 
Sanders has the potential to 

398
00:21:57,300 --> 00:22:00,600
really plummet like maybe his 
free agent, he's probably 

399
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:03,300
sitting like the Eds, maybe his 
free agent Market isn't as 

400
00:22:03,300 --> 00:22:05,600
strong, as he expects, its on a 
team's draft, rookie running 

401
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:10,300
back Surly and he sort of left 
out and he could drop a ton. 

402
00:22:10,500 --> 00:22:12,700
Whereas I see game wall is 
somewhat safer because he's 

403
00:22:12,700 --> 00:22:17,100
still under contract, actually 
boss, both, Boston, Scott and my

404
00:22:17,300 --> 00:22:19,600
Sanders are free agents. 
So like I don't see a scenario 

405
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:23,600
where he's not at least the 
number two in Philadelphia. 

406
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:27,900
So to me that price feels a bit 
safer. 

407
00:22:27,900 --> 00:22:30,800
But yeah, I think, to your point
Pete, I'm getting kind of 

408
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:36,000
nervous about like, the more 
expensive free agent running 

409
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:40,200
backs that are sort of assumed 
to re-sign somewhere like, like 

410
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:42,900
Sanders, like maybe David 
Montgomery or though, you could 

411
00:22:42,900 --> 00:22:46,500
argue whether that's a value or 
not, guys, talked about 

412
00:22:46,500 --> 00:22:48,700
Montgomery on. 
Ship chasing when I was out and 

413
00:22:48,700 --> 00:22:51,800
I'm not in on him, I think I 
don't think he's good and he 

414
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:55,300
doesn't have a job and so, like 
to me, like Montgomery's going 

415
00:22:55,300 --> 00:22:58,000
right next to Khalil. 
Herbert give me Khalil Herbert 

416
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,700
all day. 
Global Herbert is good, I feel 

417
00:23:00,700 --> 00:23:03,800
positive, thoughts, good and 
he's under contract. 

418
00:23:04,500 --> 00:23:08,800
And again, if they sign, they 
were to re-sign Montgomery and 

419
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:12,900
clue Herbert was his backup, his
ATP might be around lower than 

420
00:23:12,900 --> 00:23:14,400
it is. 
Now, maybe it wouldn't even 

421
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:16,600
change. 
So I'm like, why isn't any of 

422
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:18,600
the upside? 
That he operates as the lead 

423
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:22,000
back with a rookie, you know, 
mixing in behind him, but that's

424
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:25,900
not a 0% outcome. 
And so, I do, I like him. 

425
00:23:25,900 --> 00:23:31,100
I like, I like game. 
Well and Herbert, Richard white,

426
00:23:31,100 --> 00:23:33,800
I like the guys under contract 
in this General range. 

427
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:36,900
I like and, and guy like 
Montgomery really, really makes 

428
00:23:36,900 --> 00:23:40,800
me nervous. 
Yeah, that's a good point. 

429
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,600
And, and just like a higher 
level, we talked, we touched on 

430
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:45,900
this with the cube. 
He's like, I am definitely. 

431
00:23:46,300 --> 00:23:49,400
I do care about closing line 
value even in these early 

432
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:51,900
tournaments, like, you can make 
the argument, like, oh, why does

433
00:23:51,900 --> 00:23:53,800
it matter if they DP doesn't 
change over the course of the 

434
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,200
tournament? 
If I load up on Kenny gained 

435
00:23:56,200 --> 00:24:00,100
while 130 in the big board and 
Philly, you know, doesn't really

436
00:24:00,100 --> 00:24:01,600
draft. 
Anybody High doesn't resign 

437
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:03,400
Sanders and he jumps up to the 
sixth round. 

438
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,000
I've been have that leverage 
where I don't have to chase 

439
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,200
gained while in the sixth round 
and future tournaments because I

440
00:24:08,300 --> 00:24:11,100
Eddie had a ton of exposure, so 
like you can think of it like 

441
00:24:11,100 --> 00:24:13,000
that. 
Like, it allows you to get 

442
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:14,600
leverage in like future 
tournaments. 

443
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:17,200
If you load up on these guys at 
good values. 

444
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,700
Now like maybe last year, Julio 
Jones, is maybe a bad example 

445
00:24:20,700 --> 00:24:23,300
because he busted and sucked 
anyways, but if you had a ton of

446
00:24:23,300 --> 00:24:26,400
Julio in the Big Board which I 
did you did. 

447
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:30,400
Yeah, I just have a lot of Julio
to yeah, frijole, I was nice. 

448
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:32,800
Yeah. 
So that's something about that 

449
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:37,100
type of, it's a great Point. 
Yeah, it's a really great point 

450
00:24:37,100 --> 00:24:40,000
because Can adjust what you're 
doing later. 

451
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:43,800
If you can, you can feel more 
confident about going because 

452
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:46,100
there's that thing of like God I
really don't want to take this 

453
00:24:46,100 --> 00:24:48,100
guy like Damien Pierce. 
For example, I didn't really 

454
00:24:48,100 --> 00:24:51,600
have any of last year because he
kept getting more expensive and 

455
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:53,600
every time I was like, I don't 
love them here. 

456
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,500
I'm gonna I'm gonna pass and 
then he'd go, he'd go move up 

457
00:24:56,500 --> 00:24:58,400
around and then it would be, 
even harder to drive them. 

458
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:02,800
I just never really got in and 
that's not a great position to 

459
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:04,300
be in. 
I don't think generally, you 

460
00:25:04,300 --> 00:25:06,600
want to be Damien. 
Damien, Pierce is like pretty 

461
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:08,800
talented running back. 
Not a Perfect pick. 

462
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:13,100
But I would have much preferred 
to not have, you know, a 

463
00:25:13,108 --> 00:25:16,600
complete faith position 
basically and this is the time 

464
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:20,200
where you can get those types of
guys, really cheap and avoid 

465
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:25,300
that. 
That exits, let's move on to the

466
00:25:25,308 --> 00:25:29,800
fallers here. 
So again for people listening on

467
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:33,400
audio looking at the largest 
fallers over the past 10 days or

468
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:37,500
so, some names that jump out 
here as the biggest followers or

469
00:25:37,500 --> 00:25:39,900
Brock / D. 
Chase Brown is a rookie running 

470
00:25:39,900 --> 00:25:46,500
back Jerick McKinnon Zach ertz 
fournette, Chimera CH Jimmy G, 

471
00:25:46,900 --> 00:25:52,700
Isaiah McKenzie, and and Desmond
Ritter I think the first thing 

472
00:25:52,700 --> 00:25:58,300
that Jumps out to me. 
Here is the Chiefs running backs

473
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:03,000
with both McKinnon and CH 
falling a ton. 

474
00:26:03,500 --> 00:26:06,800
I'm curious Pete how you're 
playing the Chiefs running back 

475
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:09,700
situation. 
Like you think these ATP Falls 

476
00:26:09,700 --> 00:26:12,300
for these guys are Justified and
if so does that mean we should 

477
00:26:12,300 --> 00:26:14,600
be hammering Pacheco at around 
six. 

478
00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:18,000
Seventy ATP. 
What are your thoughts on these 

479
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:19,400
guys? 
Because I'm not not quite sure 

480
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,000
how to sort out. 
The KC running back situation. 

481
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:26,000
Yeah I don't think I know either
because I want to say across my 

482
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:29,100
ten or so drafts that I've done.
I do not think I have selected a

483
00:26:29,100 --> 00:26:32,500
single Chiefs running back 
which, you know, maybe that's 

484
00:26:32,500 --> 00:26:34,600
bad. 
I feel pretty strongly that you 

485
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:37,300
know, taking the most expensive 
one at this point. 

486
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:39,600
Doesn't make a ton of sense 
especially when they're a 

487
00:26:39,608 --> 00:26:42,400
candidate to draft someone or 
bring someone in through free 

488
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:44,700
agency. 
I don't, you know, to kind of 

489
00:26:44,708 --> 00:26:48,400
your guys's point about Clyde 
over to layer like he like at 

490
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:50,200
even though he's extremely 
cheap. 

491
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:53,100
Like the dude just sucks and has
basically, Every chance to have 

492
00:26:53,100 --> 00:26:55,900
this opportunity at that. 
Feels like a throwaway McKinnon 

493
00:26:55,900 --> 00:27:00,300
is the one I stare at and I have
a hard time and I think he's a 

494
00:27:00,300 --> 00:27:02,800
justifiable, click there, isn't 
he? 

495
00:27:02,900 --> 00:27:04,900
He's a free agent. 
That is a fish, right? 

496
00:27:04,900 --> 00:27:06,100
Yeah. 
That's right. 

497
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,800
Makes it tough because they 
brought him a so late last year.

498
00:27:09,100 --> 00:27:10,900
Yeah. 
I think if the thing with him is

499
00:27:10,900 --> 00:27:14,700
like, it's so binary to me and 
maybe I'm I'm simplifying this 

500
00:27:14,700 --> 00:27:19,400
but like if he goes to the 
Chiefs he jumps a little bit if 

501
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:24,000
he goes anywhere else, he's like
almost on Like if a kid has on 

502
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,700
the cheeks I mean maybe like if 
he's on the bills or you can 

503
00:27:26,700 --> 00:27:29,600
invent some other scenario where
maybe he has some value, but his

504
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,700
value seems so specific to the 
Chiefs. 

505
00:27:32,700 --> 00:27:35,400
That like I do is also what 31 
years old. 

506
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:38,600
There's retirement risk. 
It's it's a tough one, it feels 

507
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,800
like sort of maybe a small win 
if he goes back to the Chiefs 

508
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:44,500
but like he could I think 
there's big wind potential 

509
00:27:44,500 --> 00:27:47,900
that's what makes it sort of 
tough is that I mean he was an 

510
00:27:47,900 --> 00:27:52,000
absolute smash going in this 
General rains last year. 

511
00:27:52,300 --> 00:27:54,700
And because he doesn't have a 
contract, you know, you don't 

512
00:27:54,700 --> 00:27:57,200
feel comfortable taking him 
higher than this. 

513
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:00,200
But if he were to resign with 
the Chiefs, which is the most 

514
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:04,000
likely place for him to resign, 
I think then I don't know. 

515
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,100
He's like probably like a 12th 
round value. 

516
00:28:06,100 --> 00:28:10,300
When you say yeah and I guess, 
look, I'm trying to sort out 

517
00:28:10,300 --> 00:28:13,700
like, how much was this end of 
like asthma can going into the 

518
00:28:13,700 --> 00:28:17,000
playoffs was, like, on fire. 
I mean, sorry, the, yeah, like 

519
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:19,200
the fantasy playoffs and of the 
regular season was on fire and 

520
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,200
then the playoffs like was just 
very much. 

521
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:24,700
He's out even in the passing 
game in favor of Pacheco. 

522
00:28:24,700 --> 00:28:28,000
So I'm trying to figure out how 
much of that was, like, some 

523
00:28:28,100 --> 00:28:31,000
injury to McKinnon. 
The went unreported, verse like 

524
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:33,300
a chat, rude, Changing of the 
Guard, and they just kind of 

525
00:28:33,300 --> 00:28:35,900
wanted to move on from him, 
that's what's tricky. 

526
00:28:35,900 --> 00:28:38,800
But if you average the whole 
season, then obviously like the 

527
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:42,000
cannon at 165, like he was 
giving you awesome Spike weeks 

528
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:44,100
the last couple weeks of regular
season there. 

529
00:28:44,100 --> 00:28:47,400
So it's a tough one. 
I have to say, I haven't taken 

530
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:51,400
him but I actually think CH at 
this price is pretty good pick. 

531
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,900
He's Thunder, he's under 
contract McKinnon's of free 

532
00:28:54,900 --> 00:28:56,800
agent. 
Like we just said, so, if what, 

533
00:28:56,800 --> 00:29:00,200
if what if McKinnon doesn't 
resign, it probably makes sense,

534
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:02,500
right to do some drafts when you
mix in a late McKinnon, 

535
00:29:02,500 --> 00:29:04,600
especially if he falls. 
And some drafts. 

536
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:08,200
Are you mixing CH? 
Because if McKinnon doesn't 

537
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:13,300
sign, CH, is the direct 
handcuffed to Pacheco and he 

538
00:29:13,300 --> 00:29:15,100
can. 
He does everything. 

539
00:29:15,100 --> 00:29:17,900
Even though it is everything 
poorly, he does do everything, 

540
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:20,200
you know? 
He can, he can fill in his pass 

541
00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:22,200
catcher, they've used him 
somewhere, around the goal line.

542
00:29:22,300 --> 00:29:27,100
And like, there's, I mean, he's 
free, he's completely free. 

543
00:29:27,100 --> 00:29:30,100
He's on the Chiefs and he's 
definitely going to be on the 

544
00:29:30,100 --> 00:29:32,700
team next year. 
So I don't actually don't think 

545
00:29:32,700 --> 00:29:38,000
it's a terrible, very late, 
round pick Yeah, it's just it's 

546
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:40,300
just disgusting, I don't know. 
So you're probably right 

547
00:29:40,300 --> 00:29:42,400
rationally, but it like you guys
me that know what? 

548
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:45,200
But puke in my mouth feeling 
when I talk about them every 

549
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:50,300
year, I have a guy who I who I 
get on board with is an ultra 

550
00:29:50,300 --> 00:29:54,100
gross play and I didn't, I'm I'm
thinking CH is a pretty Prime 

551
00:29:54,100 --> 00:29:56,700
candidate to be that guy, which 
I would take some joy and given 

552
00:29:56,700 --> 00:29:59,400
that I was like completely out 
on him last year. 

553
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:04,900
It'd be kind of fun to tell 200 
plus ch That it, that's what's 

554
00:30:04,900 --> 00:30:07,500
so gross about it. 
It's like you can't at least 

555
00:30:07,500 --> 00:30:09,300
with your guys's anti David 
Montgomery. 

556
00:30:09,300 --> 00:30:11,500
Argument at that price, like you
can still say there's an 

557
00:30:11,500 --> 00:30:13,700
opportunity cost. 
Relative to the other guys going

558
00:30:13,700 --> 00:30:15,500
around him. 
It's harder to do that at pick 

559
00:30:15,500 --> 00:30:18,100
224. 
Yeah, exactly. 

560
00:30:18,900 --> 00:30:21,400
Yeah. 
It's tough to argue against I 

561
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:26,100
think what I would say if you 
are taking CH and I get this 

562
00:30:26,100 --> 00:30:29,200
doesn't have to be like 
exclusive, but I do think I'd be

563
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:31,500
more interested in taking them 
on teams where I've taken my 

564
00:30:31,500 --> 00:30:33,300
home's. 
Presumably with a Kelsey. 

565
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:37,100
Stack and I'm making another big
bet on the Chiefs offense as a 

566
00:30:37,108 --> 00:30:40,200
whole and just being like CH is 
bad, but he could fall into the 

567
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:43,000
end zone 10 times because he's 
the lead back kind of thing. 

568
00:30:44,500 --> 00:30:46,300
Yeah, we're just gets really 
lucky. 

569
00:30:46,300 --> 00:30:48,700
I mean heat that happened to 
begin the season member is like 

570
00:30:48,700 --> 00:30:49,800
because I didn't have any of 
them. 

571
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,300
So I remember this pretty 
clearly like he's just getting 

572
00:30:52,300 --> 00:30:54,500
completely just luck boxing into
all these. 

573
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,400
Oh yeah, there were sounds. 
Yeah, it was awful. 

574
00:30:57,700 --> 00:31:00,200
There were ceh. 
Victory Laps on Twitter after 

575
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:02,800
week five last year and I was 
absolutely hating. 

576
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:07,800
It is the most sustainable 
production of all time but you 

577
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:11,600
know whatever like I didn't want
to pay, you know, the seventh 

578
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:13,200
round, whatever eighth round 
price. 

579
00:31:13,300 --> 00:31:16,800
Stagg he had last year, but if 
he's going to go on the 18th 

580
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:19,400
19th round. 
I mean, I think I have I think I

581
00:31:19,408 --> 00:31:21,000
almost have to start mixing them
in. 

582
00:31:22,300 --> 00:31:25,600
Yeah, yeah. 
Well we killed this Show's 

583
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:33,500
ratings, 31 units re-routing. 
See there's this list of names. 

584
00:31:33,500 --> 00:31:36,100
Is, is really discussed. 
I guess the one we probably 

585
00:31:36,100 --> 00:31:38,300
should talk about in his most 
relevant here. 

586
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:43,200
Aside from the, she's running 
backs is Alvin Kamara at pick. 

587
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:47,200
79 here. 
He's falling because people have

588
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:49,900
really brought to light his 
suspension risk. 

589
00:31:50,300 --> 00:31:53,400
I'm going to blank on who did 
the thread, but there's a guy in

590
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:56,700
Twitter does almost Ruben. 
Lord Davenport does sounds of 

591
00:31:56,700 --> 00:31:58,700
them. 
I think that's who I'm referring

592
00:31:58,700 --> 00:32:00,800
to. 
You did a good thread on Chimera

593
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:04,100
suspension risk. 
And his takeaway was essentially

594
00:32:04,100 --> 00:32:06,900
he thinks that the suspension 
risk was really high and he 

595
00:32:07,100 --> 00:32:09,900
recommended people fade Chimera.
So I think there's some 

596
00:32:09,900 --> 00:32:13,300
reactions also been pretty on it
in terms of like last year he I 

597
00:32:13,308 --> 00:32:15,200
was saying like, I don't think 
he's getting suspended. 

598
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:17,300
Basically. 
You can you can drag this guy 

599
00:32:17,900 --> 00:32:20,200
without worrying about the 
suspension which ended up being 

600
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:20,900
exactly. 
Right. 

601
00:32:20,900 --> 00:32:25,100
So, but yeah. 
Now it sounds like the situation

602
00:32:25,100 --> 00:32:27,100
has changed. 
Yeah. 

603
00:32:27,300 --> 00:32:33,100
It sounds bad for him so I guess
assuming we're we all think this

604
00:32:33,100 --> 00:32:35,500
is a bad price and let me know 
or sorry. 

605
00:32:35,500 --> 00:32:37,900
Assuming we all think we should 
still fade Chimera around this 

606
00:32:37,900 --> 00:32:40,100
price which I think we're all in
agreement there. 

607
00:32:40,100 --> 00:32:43,100
Let me know if not I guess I'll 
put this question to you, Pat. 

608
00:32:43,300 --> 00:32:47,900
At at what price would you start
to click Chimera? 

609
00:32:47,900 --> 00:32:49,900
Like, how much farther what do 
you have to fall? 

610
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:55,100
Yeah, I've been trying to think 
about this because I thought he 

611
00:32:55,100 --> 00:32:59,300
was somewhat interesting before 
I realized like you know, when I

612
00:32:59,308 --> 00:33:02,100
came back one of my first 
impressions like Oh, Come here 

613
00:33:02,100 --> 00:33:06,000
and here, okay, I can get on 
board with this but then I 

614
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:09,600
didn't really register how much 
suspension risk? 

615
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:11,300
I would be eating by taking him 
there. 

616
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:14,800
And so I've been trying to think
through exactly where because, 

617
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:18,500
okay, let's say you mrs. 
Like eight games, I mean, you 

618
00:33:18,500 --> 00:33:23,000
kind of need him to be priced at
like the All of a handcuff 

619
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:26,300
running back like you need to be
able to have him not contribute 

620
00:33:26,300 --> 00:33:28,300
for a long stretch of the season
and have that be. 

621
00:33:28,300 --> 00:33:32,600
Okay. 
So that starts to become 

622
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:34,500
appealing. 
What like the eighth or ninth 

623
00:33:34,500 --> 00:33:37,400
round. 
So we're getting. 

624
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:41,200
I guess we're getting close. 
Yeah. 

625
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:43,200
So you're saying like a high-end
hang because when you said 

626
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:46,300
initially Hank up, I think of 
those guys is like more like the

627
00:33:46,300 --> 00:33:49,600
120s 130s, but you're talking 
like a high-end hand, caustic, a

628
00:33:49,608 --> 00:33:53,400
high-end handcuff, Lee Jay, 
Dylan type EG doing type, I was 

629
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:56,800
happily taking Rashad white in 
the ninth and tenth round last 

630
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:58,800
year who I thought would have 
you know? 

631
00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:01,400
But again like that type of 
profile, right? 

632
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:06,200
He's like not going to give you 
much much production early in 

633
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:08,800
the season, but you're hoping by
midseason. 

634
00:34:09,500 --> 00:34:11,300
He's actually contributing. 
Damaris case. 

635
00:34:11,300 --> 00:34:13,300
It's not because he's a rookie 
coming on it's because he's 

636
00:34:13,699 --> 00:34:18,199
returning from suspension but 
unlike you know a rookie you 

637
00:34:18,199 --> 00:34:20,100
feel probably little more 
confident that come here 

638
00:34:20,100 --> 00:34:21,900
actually has a legit role when 
he gets back. 

639
00:34:21,900 --> 00:34:26,900
So yeah it feels yeah feels like
maybe the 8th would that would 

640
00:34:26,900 --> 00:34:29,199
be my gut feel on it. 
Pete. 

641
00:34:29,199 --> 00:34:30,900
You have any thoughts on on 
Chimera? 

642
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:34,100
Yeah, that one that one's tough 
too because I was basically 

643
00:34:34,100 --> 00:34:37,300
trying to think that you want 
three different discounts with 

644
00:34:37,300 --> 00:34:39,199
him right? 
You want the he might be dust 

645
00:34:39,199 --> 00:34:42,800
discount you want the offense 
might suck discount and you want

646
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:46,000
the suspension risk discount? 
And so eighth round is just like

647
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,000
On The Fringe there or it's like
is that baking in enough of 

648
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:52,500
those discounts if you if you 
took away is not a Smash in the 

649
00:34:52,500 --> 00:34:54,500
eighth he's not he's not a have 
to take them. 

650
00:34:54,500 --> 00:34:56,300
Yeah. 
Like if you took away the 

651
00:34:56,300 --> 00:34:58,400
suspension rest, like if say we 
knew it was fully healthy was 

652
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:01,800
going to Play start Week 1, 
projected to play all 17 games. 

653
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,500
Like, where do you think he 
should go in that scenario? 

654
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:07,400
Sick. 
Sorry. 

655
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,700
No, no suspension risk. 
Where do ya if you have limit? 

656
00:35:09,700 --> 00:35:11,900
I'm trying to figure out how 
much of that baby pea is 

657
00:35:11,900 --> 00:35:14,200
attributed to just the 
suspension risk. 

658
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,200
I think this time around 43 and 
I wouldn't be taking him in the 

659
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:19,700
fifth. 
I think I'd start to get a 

660
00:35:19,700 --> 00:35:22,100
little interested in the sixth. 
Yeah. 

661
00:35:22,100 --> 00:35:24,500
Because because I actually worry
about the the he might be done 

662
00:35:24,500 --> 00:35:28,300
risk or that they don't know how
to use him anymore risk. 

663
00:35:28,500 --> 00:35:32,300
Now that Peyton's gone and he's 
not getting used as the, you 

664
00:35:32,300 --> 00:35:36,000
know, the high volume receiving 
guy, they're running him too 

665
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:39,300
much and also I don't know is 
efficiencies really dropped and 

666
00:35:39,308 --> 00:35:43,000
he's an older back so you start 
to get pretty nervous when yeah,

667
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:47,100
those guys Splash inefficiency? 
Yeah, I think that sounds about,

668
00:35:47,100 --> 00:35:48,700
right? 
I think I'd be Waiting till like

669
00:35:49,300 --> 00:35:52,100
I think he needs a much bigger 
fall for me to start taking in 

670
00:35:52,100 --> 00:35:54,300
like around pick 100 110 I 
think. 

671
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:57,000
Okay, this is because like you 
said the second round, I mean 

672
00:35:57,000 --> 00:36:01,100
that 6 round is like picks 6272 
and he's only at 79 if you're 

673
00:36:01,100 --> 00:36:03,200
saying you take them in the 
sixth round without the 

674
00:36:03,207 --> 00:36:06,500
suspension risk. 
Then I think you need a pretty 

675
00:36:06,500 --> 00:36:08,900
huge discount. 
I know these are tournaments 

676
00:36:08,900 --> 00:36:12,700
that are weighted towards weeks 
15 through 17, but I don't know 

677
00:36:12,700 --> 00:36:15,200
DeShaun Watson different 
situation, you know, quarterback

678
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:17,600
was running back but he was 
suspended for 12 games last 

679
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:18,100
year. 
Here. 

680
00:36:18,300 --> 00:36:20,700
And he was basically free, 
right? 

681
00:36:20,700 --> 00:36:24,400
Like it's not a one-to-one 
comparison but I think that 

682
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:27,800
Camaro is price is going to fall
much farther than this. 

683
00:36:29,100 --> 00:36:32,000
That's probably the best point 
is that this isn't it? 

684
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:35,200
This isn't where he's going to 
settle so why take him? 

685
00:36:35,300 --> 00:36:37,800
Why kind of kind of Catch A 
Falling knife? 

686
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:40,000
Is we go down? 
Like, you might as well wait 

687
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:44,700
until because I don't think that
people fully realize How likely 

688
00:36:44,700 --> 00:36:46,500
he is to be suspended for a long
time. 

689
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:51,300
Yeah I agree with that in the 
market, always like double 

690
00:36:51,300 --> 00:36:54,500
counts, these things to like 
even if it is priced into his 

691
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:56,200
value. 
Now that there's a suspension 

692
00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:59,500
risk when the suspense 
suspension is announced like I 

693
00:36:59,500 --> 00:37:02,700
think we have a tendency to even
double count those things. 

694
00:37:02,700 --> 00:37:04,300
I mean it makes sense you would 
go down anyways. 

695
00:37:04,300 --> 00:37:08,800
But anyways like I agree with 
that point completely I think 

696
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:14,300
he'll fall further and you can 
get a much better price on them 

697
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:20,200
later if you're interested in 
drafting chimera, So, let's move

698
00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:24,900
on here to the teams and this 
chart takes a little more 

699
00:37:24,900 --> 00:37:30,500
explaining than the other ones. 
So what I did here is I looked 

700
00:37:30,500 --> 00:37:36,200
at the average of top five 
players on each team by ATP. 

701
00:37:36,300 --> 00:37:38,500
So, for example, for 
Philadelphia, that would be like

702
00:37:38,500 --> 00:37:44,000
hurts Goddard Avant de AJ Brown 
probably Mi Sanders and average 

703
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:47,900
that and that comes out to 
around 40 in terms of average 

704
00:37:47,900 --> 00:37:51,700
age, P. 
And the idea here is to look at 

705
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,600
which teams are more or less 
expensive. 

706
00:37:55,900 --> 00:37:59,100
And I also put on the bottom of 
this chart here, all odds to win

707
00:37:59,100 --> 00:38:02,400
Super Bowls just like a rough 
proxy of how good we think those

708
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:04,500
teams are. 
So, you know, the more expensive

709
00:38:04,500 --> 00:38:08,100
teams should be teams like the 
eagles, the Bengals, the 49ers, 

710
00:38:08,100 --> 00:38:10,700
the bills, the Chiefs, you know,
the teams that are sort of 

711
00:38:10,900 --> 00:38:13,700
consensus by market odds, 
highest chance of winning the 

712
00:38:13,700 --> 00:38:18,800
Super Bowl. 
So what this chart Shows here. 

713
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,600
I thought, the most potentially 
interesting thing. 

714
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:24,700
Yeah, there's one question that 
you had, I did mean to point 

715
00:38:24,700 --> 00:38:30,800
this out, these numbers do. 
So how Underdog like deals with 

716
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:34,600
free agents as they still assign
players to their most recent 

717
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:36,700
team? 
Even if they are free agents for

718
00:38:36,700 --> 00:38:39,700
the most part like this is 
getting in the weeds here but 

719
00:38:39,700 --> 00:38:42,600
Derek Carr is not listed with 
the team because he was caught 

720
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:47,100
by the Vegas by Las Vegas. 
But like Schultz is still listed

721
00:38:47,100 --> 00:38:49,600
with Dallas San There's a still 
listed with the Eagles. 

722
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:52,300
So there's some confounding 
things going on there where 

723
00:38:52,300 --> 00:38:55,100
players that may be leaving, the
teams are included with their 

724
00:38:55,100 --> 00:38:57,600
teams ATP. 
So I will point that out, this 

725
00:38:57,600 --> 00:39:00,200
will get more accurate as things
get more settled. 

726
00:39:01,100 --> 00:39:04,600
But anyways, like the biggest 
thing that jumped out to me here

727
00:39:05,100 --> 00:39:09,400
and this goes to the point on 
the quarterbacks Kansas City in 

728
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:14,000
Buffalo, they rank in like the 
top 10 in terms of most expected

729
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:17,300
to most expensive teams. 
But they're around like 7th and 

730
00:39:17,300 --> 00:39:20,000
8th. 
And that's what that's part of 

731
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:24,300
the reason why I am totally fine
with drafting Patrick Mahone's 

732
00:39:24,300 --> 00:39:29,900
and Josh Allen in the second 
round because you can stack them

733
00:39:29,900 --> 00:39:35,100
up with players at very cheap 
prices and ultimately not pay 

734
00:39:35,100 --> 00:39:36,500
that much. 
Like I guess you can pair it 

735
00:39:36,500 --> 00:39:39,000
with like Jacksonville. 
If you want to Stack Trevor 

736
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:42,700
Lawrence you had to take like 
Lawrence and Ridley in like the 

737
00:39:42,700 --> 00:39:45,700
fourth and fifth round. 
If you want to do a Casey stack,

738
00:39:45,700 --> 00:39:50,700
where you just tack on McKinnon 
The sky more Noah gray, whatever

739
00:39:50,700 --> 00:39:53,500
you can can get gross with it. 
Some of those players are gonna 

740
00:39:53,500 --> 00:39:56,300
be playing valuable snatch the 
Chiefs, and you can get that 

741
00:39:56,300 --> 00:40:00,500
app, really pretty cheap cost. 
So, I'm okay, I'm like, I really

742
00:40:00,500 --> 00:40:03,200
want to consider this year, not 
just the price of the individual

743
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:05,800
player, but the price of the 
stack, I'm getting with the 

744
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,900
quarterbacks, that's something 
last year that got me on CD lamb

745
00:40:08,900 --> 00:40:11,500
pretty late even though I 
thought he was a bad value back 

746
00:40:11,500 --> 00:40:13,700
was so cheap that I'm like, 
okay, I'm alright, paying for 

747
00:40:13,900 --> 00:40:16,900
CD, if he's a little overpriced,
if I think DAC is way 

748
00:40:16,900 --> 00:40:19,100
underpriced. 
I think that's just something we

749
00:40:19,107 --> 00:40:20,600
should be considering going 
forward. 

750
00:40:20,900 --> 00:40:23,400
Anyways, I'll hand it to you. 
Pat. 

751
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:26,000
Do you think does that change 
your perspective on the 

752
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:28,500
quarterbacks at all like 
considering the teammates or so 

753
00:40:28,500 --> 00:40:31,300
chief cheap for both homes and 
Joshua Allen? 

754
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:34,700
It does a little bit. 
Yeah, I like your point on on 

755
00:40:35,100 --> 00:40:37,600
really trying to think through 
the overall value of the stack 

756
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:41,600
because one thing I find right 
now is that it's a little hard 

757
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:44,800
to stack as much as I would 
like, you know, I'm often 

758
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:47,900
finding myself like in around 
being like this. 

759
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:51,600
Guys, so much better than the 
other options. 

760
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:54,000
Yes, he's completely 
uncorrelated with the rest of my

761
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:56,800
team but I'm just going to take 
him anyway. 

762
00:40:56,900 --> 00:41:01,800
Yeah, and one thing I have 
noticed to your point on in the 

763
00:41:01,808 --> 00:41:05,800
point this chart makes about the
Chiefs being pretty cheap mvs is

764
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:09,800
very very cheap and he's under 
contract. 

765
00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:16,400
Whereas Juiceman Schuster is not
and I don't know, I mean, I 

766
00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:18,600
guess they could move on from 
Vs. 

767
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:23,300
They can save, he's got 4 
million in debt cap and 11 

768
00:41:23,300 --> 00:41:25,200
million dollar cap hit. 
So I guess they can save seven 

769
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:28,200
million this year by releasing 
him, although it says nine 

770
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:31,800
million on spell check, but 
whatever it is, you know, he's 

771
00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:36,800
somewhat of a cut candidate but 
he is currently under contract 

772
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:40,000
at least so that I think that 
makes him pretty interesting at 

773
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:44,000
price and then yeah Sky more 
Tony's a little expensive to me 

774
00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:46,300
just given that. 
I think he might be kind of a 

775
00:41:46,300 --> 00:41:50,300
gadget guy, but obviously, A lot
of upside given his athleticism 

776
00:41:50,300 --> 00:41:52,900
and playmaking ability if he's 
actually out there more next 

777
00:41:52,900 --> 00:41:56,700
year, so, yeah. 
I mean, yeah, it's probably, 

778
00:41:56,700 --> 00:41:58,300
it's probably a smart way to 
think about it. 

779
00:41:58,300 --> 00:42:01,600
To get some homes exposure and 
then just stack it up. 

780
00:42:02,700 --> 00:42:05,900
And those teams there are guys 
that you know, are going to be 

781
00:42:05,908 --> 00:42:06,800
on the team. 
They're going to be under 

782
00:42:06,800 --> 00:42:09,500
contract, they're going to have 
some kind of role. 

783
00:42:09,500 --> 00:42:11,600
I see sacrilegious. 
Mentioning Miami here. 

784
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:13,300
I mean Miami's are really tricky
one, right? 

785
00:42:13,300 --> 00:42:15,900
Because you have to spend the 
first and second round pick on 

786
00:42:15,900 --> 00:42:17,400
hill and waddle, which I'm fine 
to do. 

787
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:18,700
I'm fine. 
That's doable though. 

788
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:22,100
I've done that a number of 
times, it's doable, but I'm 

789
00:42:22,100 --> 00:42:26,000
saying, like then their offense 
is so concentrated get sick. 

790
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:27,600
He's a free agent. 
Who's probably going to walk. 

791
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:31,500
Like there's no other guys. 
You feel like comfortable really

792
00:42:31,500 --> 00:42:33,400
tell. 
Yeah, gone to a team level bet. 

793
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:36,200
They're, I don't I don't think 
anybody on and that's actually 

794
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:39,200
why I that's why I think it's 
viable to go first and second 

795
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:41,200
round because it's so so 
concentrated. 

796
00:42:41,300 --> 00:42:43,800
So you just get this to us so 
cheap. 

797
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:46,500
I think to. 
So I mean exactly to was cheap. 

798
00:42:46,500 --> 00:42:49,400
So you just get those two plus 
two and you have your stack 

799
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:51,800
done. 
It's almost the reverse of the 

800
00:42:51,900 --> 00:42:54,700
Mahomes, one where you can just 
kind of tack on pieces as you 

801
00:42:54,700 --> 00:43:00,000
go. 
Yeah, yeah, I think Miami. 

802
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:04,500
That's a good one to point out 
where, yeah, I like I think 

803
00:43:05,300 --> 00:43:08,100
sacrilegious is making the point
against Miami a little bit in 

804
00:43:08,100 --> 00:43:11,800
the chat, but, yeah, for me, 
it's just like, you know, those 

805
00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:13,400
are going to be the two guys. 
Maybe they had some other 

806
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:17,100
people, but I feel so confident 
that's going to be, I don't 

807
00:43:17,100 --> 00:43:19,600
know. 50%, share Miami's passing
offense. 

808
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:22,300
If I grab those two guys met, I 
think even more last year, was 

809
00:43:22,300 --> 00:43:25,500
probably even more and they're 
both so talented to. 

810
00:43:25,500 --> 00:43:28,100
It's not like you're just 
betting on the Uh like they 

811
00:43:28,100 --> 00:43:30,100
could add a rookie in. 
Like, I don't know. 

812
00:43:30,100 --> 00:43:33,400
Good luck to that rookie like 
there's those suits are earning 

813
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:37,300
their targets. 
Yeah, that makes sense. 

814
00:43:37,300 --> 00:43:40,800
The one thing that stood out to 
me is like, if I was look at 

815
00:43:40,808 --> 00:43:44,600
this chart, and say, what's the 
most overvalued team, I think 

816
00:43:44,600 --> 00:43:51,500
it's the Jags to me the prices 
that are to stack. 

817
00:43:51,500 --> 00:43:54,100
The Jags up are pretty 
expensive. 

818
00:43:54,100 --> 00:43:59,600
You have Lawrence going at 55 
etn and the third, I think Kirk 

819
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:03,200
and really both and sort of the,
the fourth and fifth range. 

820
00:44:05,300 --> 00:44:08,000
There's definitely a world where
Trevor Lawrence smashes, and 

821
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:10,800
elevates all those guys. 
And I wouldn't say I want like 

822
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:17,700
0, Trevor Lawrence, but to me, 
it just stands out as a place 

823
00:44:17,700 --> 00:44:21,400
that is potentially overvalued 
and maybe we can talk about, you

824
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:25,300
know, really later. 
I have some more thoughts, but I

825
00:44:25,300 --> 00:44:30,400
think I'm shying away from 
Jacksonville a little bit based 

826
00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:33,100
on this information. 
I don't know if you guys have 

827
00:44:33,100 --> 00:44:34,800
any thoughts on potentially 
overvalued. 

828
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:38,600
Shawn this chart. 
Pete, you've made the point 

829
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:42,100
about like, you know, being 
okay, drafting the homes and 

830
00:44:42,100 --> 00:44:46,700
Alan more than this second group
of quarterbacks stuff. 

831
00:44:47,100 --> 00:44:51,400
And some me, like the guy that 
jumps out to me, when you say 

832
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:56,200
that it is, is Lawrence Rome? 
Like does he even have this huge

833
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:57,900
ceiling? 
It's a little like, Herbert from

834
00:44:57,900 --> 00:45:02,000
last year, where he was going, 
you know, it was just like it 

835
00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:05,200
was kind of crazy expensive to 
be able to stack up the Chargers

836
00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:11,900
and it's like our We even sure 
that his weekly ceiling is on 

837
00:45:11,900 --> 00:45:14,500
par with the other guys. 
The other quarterbacks going in 

838
00:45:14,500 --> 00:45:16,000
this range. 
I don't know. 

839
00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:19,800
Yeah, I'm with Sam that 
Jacksonville feels expensive at 

840
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:21,900
one. 
I haven't taken Lawrence once I 

841
00:45:21,900 --> 00:45:23,900
probably will have like zero 
percent of him. 

842
00:45:23,900 --> 00:45:26,800
As if it's ATP. 
Is there does it higher 

843
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:31,600
offseason and there's just a 
general like Dark Horse Buzz 

844
00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:34,200
around the Jags and it's not 
even that Dark Horse because we 

845
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:37,300
saw him in the playoffs but you 
can go look like even on sports.

846
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:40,300
In Twitter, like the Jag Super 
Bowl future is like one of the 

847
00:45:40,308 --> 00:45:42,400
most popular ones right now, 
them in the lion. 

848
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:46,100
So like people are just really 
enthused about this Jack's team 

849
00:45:46,100 --> 00:45:48,900
and then you add Ridley to the 
mix and it just kind of set this

850
00:45:48,900 --> 00:45:52,700
hype to the stratosphere. 
So, yeah, I might take has been,

851
00:45:52,700 --> 00:45:55,300
I'd much rather bet a Jags 
future, then I would like 

852
00:45:55,300 --> 00:45:57,900
drafting, you know, Ridley and 
Trevor Lawrence where they're 

853
00:45:57,900 --> 00:46:00,200
going right now. 
Yeah. 

854
00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:04,700
Can I ask you guys about Lamar 
Jackson, because I was on the 

855
00:46:04,700 --> 00:46:08,300
FPC show last night with Eric 
balk, and he was kind of making 

856
00:46:08,300 --> 00:46:12,000
the point that I like, are we 
sure Jackson is going to be 

857
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:15,600
playing for like anybody if he's
like, is there hold out risk 

858
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:17,400
here because he seems pretty 
intense on this guaranteed 

859
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:23,000
money, this is like real 
standoff Vibes, because I think 

860
00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:26,500
if he, if you make the 
assumption that like look is 

861
00:46:26,500 --> 00:46:30,800
going to get worked out, he's 
playing He's probably the best 

862
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:33,300
quarterback value on the board 
at the current prices of 

863
00:46:33,300 --> 00:46:35,400
everybody. 
I mean, he's like, God, he's 

864
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:38,100
going right behind Justin 
Fields, I think. 

865
00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:40,900
And it's like, the hope for 
Justin Fields is that he is 

866
00:46:40,900 --> 00:46:44,600
Lamar Jackson and Jackson even 
if he doesn't play to the 

867
00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:46,200
Ravens, it might be for a better
situation. 

868
00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:49,100
Like what if the Jets decide to 
go all in and they go get 

869
00:46:49,100 --> 00:46:52,500
Jackson like I think I like him 
better on the Jets than I do on 

870
00:46:52,500 --> 00:46:55,400
the Ravens. 
So I mean that's like a spot 

871
00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:58,000
where, yes, it's still a lot to 
pay for Jackson, if you're 

872
00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:00,700
getting him at like the In the 
fourth round. 

873
00:47:00,700 --> 00:47:04,200
But if you're getting like 
fourth round, Jackson versus 

874
00:47:04,200 --> 00:47:06,900
second round, you know, Josh 
allopatric homes. 

875
00:47:06,900 --> 00:47:11,600
Jalen hurts like, that's, I 
mean, he belongs with those guys

876
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:17,000
in terms of his his weekly 
ceiling Yeah, that one's tough 

877
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:22,700
for me because I have heard more
and more that this holdout risk 

878
00:47:22,700 --> 00:47:27,000
seems Seems more. 
And more likely I had the same 

879
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:29,400
thought as you, like, when I 
opened a DP first time, I 

880
00:47:29,408 --> 00:47:31,700
drafted a big board. 
I was like, Lamar Jackson is the

881
00:47:31,700 --> 00:47:34,600
best QB value relative to other 
ones, like I was taking him a 

882
00:47:34,607 --> 00:47:37,400
lot. 
If I'm being consistent with how

883
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:39,900
I'm treating other players and 
like thinking about ETA, t p 

884
00:47:39,900 --> 00:47:44,700
movement, I think Lamar Jackson 
is ATP is gonna fall a bit 

885
00:47:44,700 --> 00:47:46,500
before it rises. 
Has again. 

886
00:47:46,500 --> 00:47:50,700
So I think I want to hold off a 
little bit and maybe be more at 

887
00:47:50,700 --> 00:47:53,800
Market with Lamar, then, like 
significantly over Market, which

888
00:47:53,800 --> 00:47:58,300
I think I am right now. 
That said, yeah, it's just hard 

889
00:47:58,300 --> 00:48:01,800
to imagine like him, it just 
feels like posturing right now 

890
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:03,300
and it's hard to imagine him 
actually. 

891
00:48:03,300 --> 00:48:06,400
Not playing the whole season, 
maybe he gets traded. 

892
00:48:06,900 --> 00:48:11,800
Maybe he's unhappy. 
But I just have a hard time. 

893
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:15,000
Imagining it going to like the 
extreme of like a levy on bail 

894
00:48:15,100 --> 00:48:17,000
type. 
Mission, but I could be wrong 

895
00:48:17,000 --> 00:48:17,900
there. 
I don't know. 

896
00:48:18,400 --> 00:48:20,700
The other thing that stuff and I
feel like I'm now walking back. 

897
00:48:20,700 --> 00:48:23,600
My thing of like I'd rather take
my homes and Allen then, you 

898
00:48:23,600 --> 00:48:26,000
know, reach for the Lamar 
Jackson, the Herbert's or 

899
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:28,400
whatever in the fourth. 
But when you do look at the two 

900
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:32,100
V2s on, like the wide receivers 
in those ranges, like you're 

901
00:48:32,100 --> 00:48:34,200
getting am on Raw. 
Jalen waddle Garrett Wilson, 

902
00:48:34,200 --> 00:48:36,000
Devonte Smith, the wide 
receivers going in. 

903
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:38,500
The fourth are Amari Cooper 
Christian Watson, DeAndre 

904
00:48:38,500 --> 00:48:40,400
Hopkins, Chris Godwin. 
Like yeah. 

905
00:48:40,900 --> 00:48:43,800
That to be to is tough. 
Like I do start to lead toward 

906
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:46,800
the Lamar Jackson side and give 
me One of those wide receivers 

907
00:48:47,100 --> 00:48:50,500
the tags, thirty two point, four
million for Jackson this year. 

908
00:48:51,100 --> 00:48:53,400
He's not playing for thirty two 
point four million. 

909
00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:55,800
I understand, he doesn't have 
any long-term, you know, 

910
00:48:56,100 --> 00:49:02,800
certainty there, but like God, 
that seems like you play isn't 

911
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:05,200
the move to do the Kirk Cousins 
thing where you play out the 

912
00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:08,000
tags and then you actually hit 
free agency and then you get the

913
00:49:08,000 --> 00:49:11,600
guaranteed money. 
I just hard it's hard for me to 

914
00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:15,100
imagine an actual like how does 
it help his situation to sit out

915
00:49:15,100 --> 00:49:17,500
a year? 
Like I think. 

916
00:49:17,500 --> 00:49:20,300
Yeah, I guess I think the 
concern is like, I agree with 

917
00:49:20,300 --> 00:49:21,700
you Pat. 
I think the concern is more like

918
00:49:21,700 --> 00:49:25,300
a hold in type situation where 
he doesn't play on that contract

919
00:49:25,300 --> 00:49:28,700
but like makes it really hard on
the team like doesn't meet with 

920
00:49:28,700 --> 00:49:31,600
new OC Todd Monken until right 
before Week 1 like doesn't 

921
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:35,500
really show off like I think 
that that is like the downside 

922
00:49:35,500 --> 00:49:38,200
fear than him like outright just
just not playing. 

923
00:49:39,000 --> 00:49:40,400
That makes sense. 
That's a good point. 

924
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:43,400
Yeah, yeah, I don't know. 
I could just make it ugly for 

925
00:49:43,400 --> 00:49:45,400
for the offense but yeah, I have
a hard time. 

926
00:49:45,700 --> 00:49:48,500
Seeing him like not actually 
showing up for 30-plus million 

927
00:49:48,500 --> 00:49:50,900
or whatever it is. 
Yeah. 

928
00:49:52,200 --> 00:49:55,600
Yeah, but again, we made the 
phone with Miami like you take 

929
00:49:55,600 --> 00:49:59,400
to you, take Tyreke, you need to
take Jalen waddle and you have 

930
00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:01,200
the entire offense with 
Baltimore. 

931
00:50:01,300 --> 00:50:03,900
You take Lamar you take Mark 
Andrews and you takes. 

932
00:50:03,900 --> 00:50:05,500
You can do. 
If you're on the turn there, 

933
00:50:05,900 --> 00:50:09,500
you're like, right at the 45, 
turn the three-star, the three, 

934
00:50:09,500 --> 00:50:12,900
four turn. 
You can get Andrews Lamar. 

935
00:50:14,100 --> 00:50:16,500
Yeah, Bateman see. 
Bateman super cheap too. 

936
00:50:16,500 --> 00:50:18,400
Yeah. 
K is I think Dobbins is under 

937
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:20,300
value to the whole the whole 
team's undervalued. 

938
00:50:20,300 --> 00:50:24,900
So yeah, I don't know. 
I'm talking myself in circles 

939
00:50:24,900 --> 00:50:26,800
here. 
It's a tough situation. 

940
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:31,500
I think I'm Eileen Eileen by and
Baltimore more than sell but 

941
00:50:31,600 --> 00:50:34,300
acknowledge the risk with Lamar 
a little bit that he falls. 

942
00:50:35,300 --> 00:50:41,100
Yeah. 
So, we'll go on to the next 

943
00:50:41,100 --> 00:50:44,500
slide. 
Here still looking at teams and 

944
00:50:44,500 --> 00:50:46,600
these. 
So the first, the first chart 

945
00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:48,900
was showing the 16 most 
expensive teams. 

946
00:50:48,900 --> 00:50:53,500
Now this is the 16 cheapest 
teams in terms of average ATP by

947
00:50:53,500 --> 00:50:57,200
top five players ranging all the
way from Arizona, Green Bay Las 

948
00:50:57,200 --> 00:51:00,200
Vegas Chicago and sort of the 
middling range. 

949
00:51:00,200 --> 00:51:05,200
Two teams that are hilariously 
cheap like Carolina, where you 

950
00:51:05,200 --> 00:51:07,200
can apparently get their top 
five players that aren't 

951
00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:09,000
average. 
DP of 180. 

952
00:51:10,700 --> 00:51:13,800
Yeah, nobody wants anybody to 
Carolina, which makes sense they

953
00:51:13,800 --> 00:51:16,800
have no quarterback under 
contract besides Matt Correll. 

954
00:51:17,300 --> 00:51:20,400
Anyways, I think it's important 
here. 

955
00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:23,700
Like these are the teams where 
you can find last year's 

956
00:51:23,800 --> 00:51:25,700
Jaguars. 
I didn't make this chart from 

957
00:51:25,700 --> 00:51:28,800
last year but I would guess. 
You know, the Jaguars would have

958
00:51:28,800 --> 00:51:33,600
shown up in sort of the Chicago,
Las Vegas area of this chart, 

959
00:51:34,100 --> 00:51:37,500
you know, Lawrence is really 
cheap, etn wasn't too expensive.

960
00:51:37,700 --> 00:51:40,600
Kirk is a Jones very gentle for 
the last two years. 

961
00:51:40,600 --> 00:51:42,700
Yeah. 
So to our conversation on the 

962
00:51:42,700 --> 00:51:46,900
Jaguars like I think you want to
find the next Jaguars and not 

963
00:51:47,100 --> 00:51:51,500
bet on you know last year's 
Jaguars making another jump when

964
00:51:51,500 --> 00:51:54,200
they're already extremely 
expensive now. 

965
00:51:54,200 --> 00:51:58,200
So to me a team here that I'm 
really excited about and I'm 

966
00:51:58,200 --> 00:52:03,300
drafting a ton of is Chicago. 
Justin Fields is the only 

967
00:52:03,300 --> 00:52:07,000
expensive piece here. 
You can really do like a 

968
00:52:07,000 --> 00:52:09,800
Megastar Back once you get 
Fields you can tack on Herbert. 

969
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:14,800
You can tack on Claypool muneca,
Matt, I really like Mooney and 

970
00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:17,900
combat just for the values and 
certainly there's risk that 

971
00:52:17,900 --> 00:52:22,200
Chicago brings in a rookie or 
Frisian wide receiver. 

972
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:24,600
But we've already talked about 
how, you know, the the 

973
00:52:24,600 --> 00:52:26,500
free-agent Waters Seaver class 
is pretty weak. 

974
00:52:26,500 --> 00:52:28,800
I actually think the rookie wide
receiver Clacks doesn't have a 

975
00:52:28,808 --> 00:52:32,100
ton of depth after the top four 
or five guys. 

976
00:52:32,400 --> 00:52:36,600
So to me if Justin Fields makes 
that leap and he's worth the you

977
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:40,800
know, 36 over All pick a pee 
right now. 

978
00:52:40,800 --> 00:52:43,900
Some of those Chicago pass, 
catchers are going to contribute

979
00:52:43,900 --> 00:52:45,700
Spike weeks over the course of 
the year. 

980
00:52:45,700 --> 00:52:50,600
So I've done a lot of Chicago 
Mega Stacks sort of informed by 

981
00:52:50,600 --> 00:52:53,000
this chart. 
The I like that. 

982
00:52:53,000 --> 00:52:56,300
Yeah, the jet stand out to me to
for you know I'm glancing at 

983
00:52:56,300 --> 00:52:59,500
your Super Bowl odds and then 
relative to the price of the 

984
00:52:59,500 --> 00:53:02,400
stack and if you do want to do 
the you know draft like you're 

985
00:53:02,400 --> 00:53:06,400
right thing, if you want to say 
maybe play Rogers to the jet, 

986
00:53:06,400 --> 00:53:08,100
something like that Rogers. 
Is cheap. 

987
00:53:08,100 --> 00:53:11,600
Elijah more is very cheap. 
If you had any interest in a guy

988
00:53:11,600 --> 00:53:15,300
like Jean oven night or Michael 
Carter, you can get those guys 

989
00:53:15,300 --> 00:53:17,800
lay. 
I mean I like Bruce's price to. 

990
00:53:17,800 --> 00:53:21,900
So that seems like a team that 
could take a really big leap and

991
00:53:21,900 --> 00:53:24,100
outside of Gary Wilson, they're 
all really affordable. 

992
00:53:24,800 --> 00:53:26,400
The thing you can do with Rogers
too. 

993
00:53:26,400 --> 00:53:29,100
Is you can take I like breeze 
whole lot where he's going. 

994
00:53:29,100 --> 00:53:34,400
So I've been getting him and you
can you can take Rogers and then

995
00:53:34,400 --> 00:53:37,500
you can tack on like a hunter, 
Renfro who, like I don't. 

996
00:53:37,600 --> 00:53:41,700
And you know, another guy who's 
going to be under contract has a

997
00:53:41,700 --> 00:53:45,600
role carved out or you could 
kind of you could do the 

998
00:53:45,600 --> 00:53:48,500
reverse, you know, if you take 
like a Josh Jacobs or Davante 

999
00:53:48,500 --> 00:53:52,600
Adams, you can grab like Elijah 
more and I because I to me I'm 

1000
00:53:52,600 --> 00:53:55,000
like he's going he's going to 
one of the two or if you think 

1001
00:53:55,000 --> 00:53:57,500
maybe it goes back to Green Bay 
Romeo dubs is pretty cheap, like

1002
00:53:57,500 --> 00:54:02,200
I'll kind of mix-up you know 
just like some cheap pieces and 

1003
00:54:02,200 --> 00:54:04,000
I'm doing that in a couple 
different ways. 

1004
00:54:04,300 --> 00:54:08,000
You know I've done that with 
like you get a Colt. 

1005
00:54:08,000 --> 00:54:11,500
You get a panther and then you 
go take Anthony Richardson, you 

1006
00:54:11,500 --> 00:54:15,300
know, or you take Levis and it's
like, you know, you've got a 

1007
00:54:15,300 --> 00:54:18,900
couple different outs, two 
stacks and I think a lot of 

1008
00:54:18,900 --> 00:54:20,600
those guys are interesting to 
begin with like I think. 

1009
00:54:20,600 --> 00:54:24,600
I'll Pierce is pretty 
interesting going, very late if 

1010
00:54:24,600 --> 00:54:26,300
you want to do this and do the 
price young version. 

1011
00:54:26,300 --> 00:54:28,900
I think. 
Neko Collins is actually pretty 

1012
00:54:28,900 --> 00:54:32,000
interesting. 
He flashed his a second-year guy

1013
00:54:32,000 --> 00:54:35,200
and he's under contract and like
I said, I think Cooks is 

1014
00:54:35,200 --> 00:54:39,300
probably elsewhere so he's like 
maybe Be like a number one, 

1015
00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:42,100
receiver kind of a week, number 
one receiver. 

1016
00:54:42,100 --> 00:54:44,900
But I think I think I pretty 
nice value where he's going, so 

1017
00:54:45,300 --> 00:54:48,400
I'll kind of do that, like I'll 
throw a couple different darts 

1018
00:54:48,400 --> 00:54:50,800
at teams that are in the rookie 
quarterback, mix, and then drop 

1019
00:54:50,800 --> 00:54:54,900
a couple rookie quarterbacks. 
Yeah, I think that's smart. 

1020
00:54:55,100 --> 00:54:58,900
Another team I want to point out
here is the Rams. 

1021
00:54:58,900 --> 00:55:02,200
I think the pendulum has swung 
too far in the other direction 

1022
00:55:02,200 --> 00:55:04,900
with the Rams where people are 
really down on them. 

1023
00:55:05,100 --> 00:55:08,700
They were in the Super Bowl two 
years ago and it think Stafford 

1024
00:55:08,700 --> 00:55:13,500
should be back healthy enough. 
I don't mind just going you know

1025
00:55:13,500 --> 00:55:17,300
Stafford cup higbee Stafford 
cup. 

1026
00:55:18,100 --> 00:55:20,100
I don't know. 
Alan Robinson is disgusting but 

1027
00:55:20,400 --> 00:55:25,400
I think somebody on the Rams, 
Will land there as like a 

1028
00:55:25,400 --> 00:55:28,600
another like a reasonable number
to passing option. 

1029
00:55:28,800 --> 00:55:32,400
Besides cop, it's sort of hard 
to pick that out but that that 

1030
00:55:32,400 --> 00:55:34,700
stack is really cheap. 
I also I like me cuz I believe 

1031
00:55:34,700 --> 00:55:37,800
and Jefferson to be honest who's
in the last year of his rookie 

1032
00:55:37,800 --> 00:55:39,700
deal. 
But he's he was out there 

1033
00:55:39,700 --> 00:55:44,100
running around. 
So yeah, it's definitely kind of

1034
00:55:44,100 --> 00:55:48,400
its kind of a gross one. 
But I think they're a little a 

1035
00:55:48,408 --> 00:55:53,100
little too cheap and they 
separate definitely a feels very

1036
00:55:53,200 --> 00:55:56,700
A cheap to me in a situation, 
where an overall environment, 

1037
00:55:56,700 --> 00:55:58,200
where the quarterbacks are very 
expensive. 

1038
00:55:58,600 --> 00:56:01,500
What is the? 
I don't actually even understand

1039
00:56:01,500 --> 00:56:04,700
why Stafford's going where he's 
going or people like still 

1040
00:56:04,700 --> 00:56:06,000
worried. 
He might retire or something. 

1041
00:56:07,200 --> 00:56:09,900
I think it's just because even 
when Cooper cup is healthy like 

1042
00:56:09,900 --> 00:56:13,100
he's just putting up middling 
quarterback numbers. 

1043
00:56:13,700 --> 00:56:17,900
He didn't in 2021 the immediate 
past, almost 5,000 yards, 41 

1044
00:56:17,900 --> 00:56:22,200
touchdowns, Yeah, I don't know 
but I think there's, I think 

1045
00:56:22,200 --> 00:56:24,100
there still is a bit of a 
ceiling there with Stafford. 

1046
00:56:24,100 --> 00:56:26,900
I think people are forgetting it
a little bit but he is older. 

1047
00:56:26,900 --> 00:56:30,200
Like I see the point lot, like 
when he played last year, it was

1048
00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:35,700
very meddling before he got 
injured, but I don't know, I 

1049
00:56:35,700 --> 00:56:38,700
think macphails the smartcoach, 
like, I'd give the Rams like a 

1050
00:56:38,707 --> 00:56:41,600
chance to turn it around and at 
least be like, a fringe playoff 

1051
00:56:41,600 --> 00:56:43,200
team. 
I think that's like well within 

1052
00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:45,500
the range of outcomes. 
And in that scenario I think 

1053
00:56:45,500 --> 00:56:48,700
like Stafford and cop and 
someone else give you some 

1054
00:56:48,700 --> 00:56:55,400
decent scores. 
But yeah, any other any other 

1055
00:56:55,400 --> 00:56:58,200
teams here anyone want to make 
the case for going all in on 

1056
00:56:58,500 --> 00:57:00,200
like the Texans are the 
Panthers. 

1057
00:57:00,200 --> 00:57:05,100
Something really disgusting? 
Well I will say our guy Nick you

1058
00:57:05,100 --> 00:57:07,900
know I have a hard time saying 
anything nice about the Texans 

1059
00:57:07,900 --> 00:57:10,400
but I do like the prices of some
of the Panthers. 

1060
00:57:10,400 --> 00:57:13,700
I like both of the Panthers 
running backs chuba and Deonte 

1061
00:57:13,700 --> 00:57:17,800
Foreman look like good values. 
I mentioned djm earlier, I'm not

1062
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:20,400
a huge Terrace Marshall guy but 
I'm getting I sold a little bit,

1063
00:57:20,400 --> 00:57:24,400
but those guys are super cheap 
and you could see that situation

1064
00:57:24,500 --> 00:57:30,600
improve a good bit this year. 
Look, I think the Texans are a 

1065
00:57:30,600 --> 00:57:34,900
pretty solid value, like, Damien
Pierce, I think, isn't a 

1066
00:57:34,900 --> 00:57:38,200
terrible pick where he's going, 
you know, especially in Half 

1067
00:57:38,200 --> 00:57:42,800
Point PPR, an underdog. 
Like he's not like someone that 

1068
00:57:42,800 --> 00:57:45,900
I'm going out of my way to take 
but I think it's a totally 

1069
00:57:45,900 --> 00:57:50,900
palatable price to pay for him. 
And then like I said, I think 

1070
00:57:50,900 --> 00:57:54,300
Nico Collins is like, kind of 
wildly underpriced. 

1071
00:57:55,300 --> 00:58:00,300
He was Of operating in tandem, 
with Cooks is the top receiver 

1072
00:58:01,000 --> 00:58:04,300
and of cooks go. 
If Cook goes like we know what 

1073
00:58:04,300 --> 00:58:06,500
they're doing the first round 
right there, taking a 

1074
00:58:06,500 --> 00:58:09,900
quarterback. 
So even if they take a second 

1075
00:58:09,900 --> 00:58:12,300
round wide receiver, I don't 
know. 

1076
00:58:12,300 --> 00:58:14,500
That that's like a huge 
deathblow to Nico. 

1077
00:58:14,500 --> 00:58:17,900
Collins like he's getting the 
quarterback upgrade so and 

1078
00:58:17,900 --> 00:58:20,200
there's outcomes where he gets a
quarterback upgrade and he's 

1079
00:58:20,200 --> 00:58:22,400
like kind of the clear top 
option there. 

1080
00:58:22,800 --> 00:58:25,100
I think you'd be kind of a 
Darnell Mooney, ask number one, 

1081
00:58:25,100 --> 00:58:30,100
but That's still like a guy. 
We'd probably taking the ninth 

1082
00:58:30,100 --> 00:58:34,100
round or something. 
So I think you can you can I 

1083
00:58:34,100 --> 00:58:35,700
don't know who else to do it 
with. 

1084
00:58:35,700 --> 00:58:39,800
I mean, you can in a way I think
you can kind of quote Mega stack

1085
00:58:39,800 --> 00:58:43,000
the Texans and take cooks and 
Collins but what you're probably

1086
00:58:43,000 --> 00:58:46,000
really hoping for is that cooks 
gets traded. 

1087
00:58:46,000 --> 00:58:48,100
But, you know, you're still sort
of benefiting from the 

1088
00:58:48,100 --> 00:58:51,600
correlation are in a sense of 
now you now Niko's more 

1089
00:58:51,600 --> 00:58:54,700
valuable. 
Yeah, in general, like these 

1090
00:58:54,700 --> 00:58:57,500
cheaper teams. 
I think I'm more in favor of 

1091
00:58:57,500 --> 00:59:00,400
like the running back and wide 
receiver from the, to the same 

1092
00:59:00,400 --> 00:59:01,900
team stack. 
Because what you really betting 

1093
00:59:01,900 --> 00:59:05,100
on is just that the team is 
like, everyone thinks the Colts 

1094
00:59:05,100 --> 00:59:08,600
Patriots Titans, Houston 
Carolina, Tampa Bay, everyone 

1095
00:59:08,600 --> 00:59:12,000
thinks these teams just suck and
you're benefiting from just the 

1096
00:59:12,000 --> 00:59:14,600
team being better than 
expectation if they get lucky 

1097
00:59:14,600 --> 00:59:17,800
and you know Derek Carr Signs of
one of these teams or you know 

1098
00:59:17,800 --> 00:59:20,200
who knows what happens? 
Some kind of upgrade that lifts 

1099
00:59:20,200 --> 00:59:22,800
up every player on the team? 
I'm more inclined. 

1100
00:59:22,900 --> 00:59:24,800
Client like on a team like 
Carolina. 

1101
00:59:24,800 --> 00:59:28,900
Like I'm fine with just taking 
like Foreman Hubbard DJ more, 

1102
00:59:28,900 --> 00:59:32,200
all together like, whatever. 
I think there's correlation 

1103
00:59:32,200 --> 00:59:35,400
there if the whole offense is 
better than expected. 

1104
00:59:35,900 --> 00:59:37,200
By the way, people point out 
Houston. 

1105
00:59:37,200 --> 00:59:41,000
Also picks a 12. 
So yeah, that probably wouldn't 

1106
00:59:41,000 --> 00:59:43,500
be great if they brought in 
Quinton Johnson or something. 

1107
00:59:43,500 --> 00:59:46,100
But still nothing like that at 
that price. 

1108
00:59:46,700 --> 00:59:49,900
I was gonna say just like every 
mock that I see has them going 

1109
00:59:49,900 --> 00:59:51,900
quarterback wide receiver with 
those first two picks. 

1110
00:59:51,900 --> 00:59:55,000
Just because it's like Logical 
thing, who knows if they'll do 

1111
00:59:55,000 --> 00:59:58,800
that but it is a popular happen.
If we have to be smashing 

1112
00:59:58,800 --> 01:00:01,500
Brandin Cooks then, right? 
Like if they go quarterback wide

1113
01:00:01,500 --> 01:00:05,000
receiver he's gone. 
And and I don't take at least, I

1114
01:00:05,008 --> 01:00:06,400
think he still has something 
left. 

1115
01:00:07,200 --> 01:00:08,600
He cooks definitely feels like a
guy. 

1116
01:00:08,600 --> 01:00:11,600
Again, we talked about 
certifiable NFL skill set. 

1117
01:00:11,800 --> 01:00:15,700
His speed is something that like
I have a hard time seeing him 

1118
01:00:15,700 --> 01:00:18,300
completely falling off the map. 
Like some NFL team. 

1119
01:00:18,300 --> 01:00:20,400
I think still values with 
Brandon Cooks brings to the 

1120
01:00:20,400 --> 01:00:25,800
table and it's hard to imagine 
his Team situation getting worse

1121
01:00:26,300 --> 01:00:29,000
from what it was last year. 
So yeah, he's a boring veteran 

1122
01:00:29,000 --> 01:00:32,700
that I pick 100 I'm betting now.
I bet he likes lands in some 

1123
01:00:32,700 --> 01:00:35,600
situation re ends up going in 
like the 80s 70s later in the 

1124
01:00:35,600 --> 01:00:38,900
year, so I just want to take him
like, well before that happens, 

1125
01:00:39,300 --> 01:00:40,700
I mean, he could go to 
Cleveland, right? 

1126
01:00:40,700 --> 01:00:44,800
They could really use somebody 
and, you know, reunite with 

1127
01:00:44,800 --> 01:00:47,500
DeShaun Watson there something 
like that. 

1128
01:00:47,600 --> 01:00:50,600
I think maybe he doesn't go way 
above where he's going now, but 

1129
01:00:51,100 --> 01:00:53,200
I think it would go higher Dale.
Leslie. 

1130
01:00:53,200 --> 01:00:54,100
Good one. 
Good one. 

1131
01:00:54,100 --> 01:00:55,700
Yeah, that's a great one. 
Yeah, to Dallas. 

1132
01:00:55,700 --> 01:00:59,400
Yeah. 
Dallas desperately needs to make

1133
01:00:59,400 --> 01:01:01,000
some kind of move. 
It wide receiver. 

1134
01:01:02,000 --> 01:01:04,200
So yeah, I've been thinking 
about Dallas for like wish 

1135
01:01:04,200 --> 01:01:06,300
casting every free agent wide 
receiver ending up there. 

1136
01:01:07,700 --> 01:01:12,200
All right, let's let's move on 
to some some of the positional 

1137
01:01:12,200 --> 01:01:15,800
ADP discussion. 
Now, this one this week didn't 

1138
01:01:15,800 --> 01:01:17,400
have a ton of movement so I 
don't need to spend a ton of 

1139
01:01:17,400 --> 01:01:20,700
time here. 
But the idea of this chart, it's

1140
01:01:20,700 --> 01:01:25,000
kind of similar to the last 
chart, where, for each 

1141
01:01:25,000 --> 01:01:28,700
positional band here, I'm taking
the average of a positional 

1142
01:01:28,700 --> 01:01:30,500
grouping. 
So for example, for quarterbacks

1143
01:01:31,000 --> 01:01:34,300
for qb1, that means I'm looking 
at the average ATP of all 

1144
01:01:34,300 --> 01:01:38,100
quarterbacks, drafted 1 through 
12 and Tracking how that's 

1145
01:01:38,100 --> 01:01:41,700
moving about 10 days ago 
compared to now. 

1146
01:01:41,800 --> 01:01:44,400
So, in this chart here, you can 
see the quarterback. 

1147
01:01:44,400 --> 01:01:47,600
One prices are falling a little 
bit on average a quarterback. 

1148
01:01:47,600 --> 01:01:53,000
One is going about for pics 
later than they were a week ago.

1149
01:01:53,500 --> 01:01:55,000
So I think this is just 
interesting from, like a 

1150
01:01:55,008 --> 01:01:58,500
structural perspective to keep 
your eye on what positional 

1151
01:01:58,500 --> 01:02:02,300
groups are trending up or down, 
because I think that can really 

1152
01:02:02,300 --> 01:02:05,700
help you figure out. 
Oh, wow, you know, are b-2s or 

1153
01:02:05,700 --> 01:02:08,400
whatever way cheaper than the 
Than they should be. 

1154
01:02:08,400 --> 01:02:10,800
I'm going to sort of take a 
bunch of water receivers early 

1155
01:02:10,800 --> 01:02:13,600
and then Hammer are BTUs or 
something along those lines. 

1156
01:02:15,100 --> 01:02:18,900
So I'll hit on the if you look 
at where this compares to the 

1157
01:02:18,908 --> 01:02:22,600
last year because I mean 
obviously yeah you know the it's

1158
01:02:22,600 --> 01:02:26,500
a the time of years changing 
this as well but I would not be 

1159
01:02:26,500 --> 01:02:29,900
surprised if in August QB 1s are
still going a bit higher than 

1160
01:02:29,900 --> 01:02:32,300
they were last year. 
Yeah. 

1161
01:02:32,400 --> 01:02:37,700
I think I've not looked at that 
but that would be a good thing 

1162
01:02:37,700 --> 01:02:40,700
to layer on at some point as we 
look at this chart. 

1163
01:02:42,700 --> 01:02:45,300
Yeah, I'd imagine that like 
quarterback wants are not going 

1164
01:02:45,300 --> 01:02:49,900
to revert to the mean but 
they'll probably revert somewhat

1165
01:02:50,100 --> 01:02:52,400
there's been a lot of discussion
about the quarterback so I don't

1166
01:02:52,400 --> 01:02:55,400
know if we needed to talk 
through that as much. 

1167
01:02:55,400 --> 01:02:59,300
The one thing that jumped out at
unto me here is that running 

1168
01:02:59,300 --> 01:03:01,700
backs running back three and 
four switch. 

1169
01:03:01,700 --> 01:03:04,000
I running backs ranked 25 
through 48. 

1170
01:03:04,100 --> 01:03:08,700
Date basically cost you the same
as wide receiver 5 through wide 

1171
01:03:08,700 --> 01:03:13,000
receivers fives and sixes which 
makes it you know, it makes 

1172
01:03:13,000 --> 01:03:16,600
sense of some point, right? 
Like usually you'll draft more 

1173
01:03:16,600 --> 01:03:18,300
wide receivers and you draft 
running backs. 

1174
01:03:18,600 --> 01:03:23,300
Like, I don't think there's a 
reason for that but I think to 

1175
01:03:23,300 --> 01:03:27,100
me that just like it shows that 
there's a ton of uncertainty in 

1176
01:03:27,100 --> 01:03:30,900
the running backs right now and 
people as a result are just like

1177
01:03:30,900 --> 01:03:33,900
leaning into the safety of the 
like talented wide. 

1178
01:03:34,100 --> 01:03:37,200
Receivers that are sort of 
certain to have some kind of 

1179
01:03:37,200 --> 01:03:38,700
role. 
Whereas like there's more 

1180
01:03:38,700 --> 01:03:40,900
running backs you know the 
rookies some of these veteran 

1181
01:03:40,900 --> 01:03:43,700
free agents that are likely to 
like completely fall off a 

1182
01:03:43,700 --> 01:03:46,700
cliff. 
So anyways I just thought that 

1183
01:03:46,700 --> 01:03:51,100
was interesting but not a ton of
movement here, I don't know. 

1184
01:03:51,100 --> 01:03:53,100
Ppad. 
Is you have any any other 

1185
01:03:53,100 --> 01:03:55,100
thoughts looking at this chart 
of sort of the positional 

1186
01:03:55,100 --> 01:03:59,900
movement at ATP One thing that 
jumped out to me is the tight 

1187
01:03:59,900 --> 01:04:02,700
ends. 
I mean it just gets so so rough 

1188
01:04:03,100 --> 01:04:08,300
after Like dulcich. 
So I guess taste them Hills, 

1189
01:04:08,300 --> 01:04:11,000
really are back stuff. 
And I've taken a fair amount of 

1190
01:04:11,000 --> 01:04:13,200
taysom Hill because he actually 
he's another guy. 

1191
01:04:13,200 --> 01:04:15,500
Who'd like, is under contract, 
they can't get rid of them 

1192
01:04:15,700 --> 01:04:18,400
because of his stupid contract 
and his tight end eligibility. 

1193
01:04:18,400 --> 01:04:21,200
So, but after him I'm like it's 
a bunch of guys who like 

1194
01:04:21,200 --> 01:04:24,000
literally do not have jobs. 
I mean Hayden Hearst does not 

1195
01:04:24,000 --> 01:04:26,400
have a job, right? 
Tyler hit even Tyler hippies 

1196
01:04:26,400 --> 01:04:29,600
kind of a cut candidate. 
Mike just sick. 

1197
01:04:29,600 --> 01:04:31,800
He doesn't have a job. 
There's a bunch of these guys 

1198
01:04:31,800 --> 01:04:34,300
are going in this range. 
Working on their employee. 

1199
01:04:34,300 --> 01:04:35,300
Yeah. 
Yeah. 

1200
01:04:35,300 --> 01:04:39,200
And and I'm like, are they? 
They're not that good either? 

1201
01:04:39,500 --> 01:04:42,400
So are they really going to land
somewhere and be starters? 

1202
01:04:42,600 --> 01:04:45,000
We don't Schultz is the most 
expensive version of these guys.

1203
01:04:45,300 --> 01:04:47,300
Evan engram also free agent. 
He's going pretty. 

1204
01:04:47,300 --> 01:04:50,800
I yeah. 
I like more optimistic Erie 

1205
01:04:50,800 --> 01:04:52,400
signs. 
They seem to be mutually. 

1206
01:04:52,400 --> 01:04:54,200
Yeah. 
Mutual interest there but but 

1207
01:04:54,200 --> 01:04:58,100
still yeah, I mean if he's not 
on the Jaguars like it's it 

1208
01:04:58,100 --> 01:05:00,800
could get pretty bad, we weren't
that interested in drafting him 

1209
01:05:00,800 --> 01:05:04,300
and Ingram last year. 
So tight end is a position where

1210
01:05:05,200 --> 01:05:08,200
I'm trying not to get completely
left out in the cold but then at

1211
01:05:08,200 --> 01:05:11,500
the same time, you know, spags 
has talked a lot about this one 

1212
01:05:11,500 --> 01:05:14,800
Splash play of you can get these
rookie tight ends really late. 

1213
01:05:14,800 --> 01:05:19,300
And I like, I like tacking on a 
third, rookie tight end or even 

1214
01:05:19,300 --> 01:05:23,500
drafting, Michael Mayer is my 
second tight end, but I think 

1215
01:05:23,500 --> 01:05:25,800
that the rookies kind of help 
alleviate this problem, but in 

1216
01:05:25,800 --> 01:05:28,600
general, it's just, it's just 
tough man. 

1217
01:05:28,600 --> 01:05:30,500
There's just so many guys, that 
we don't even know if they have 

1218
01:05:30,500 --> 01:05:33,100
jobs, like, Daniel Bellinger 
Clay is like, oh wow. 

1219
01:05:33,100 --> 01:05:36,100
Okay, I will least he started. 
At least I know I got a starter 

1220
01:05:36,100 --> 01:05:39,200
but it's like he to me. 
Is like yeah, kind of an oasis 

1221
01:05:39,200 --> 01:05:42,000
in the desert. 
The other thing that just kind 

1222
01:05:42,000 --> 01:05:44,700
of interesting to be this year, 
when you look at the tight end, 

1223
01:05:44,700 --> 01:05:48,400
one thing and obviously that's 
being so heavily anchored by 

1224
01:05:48,700 --> 01:05:52,100
Kelsey's ATP. 
But you guys think like to that 

1225
01:05:52,100 --> 01:05:54,700
point about, you know, people 
liking this rookie Titan class. 

1226
01:05:54,700 --> 01:05:57,800
I mean, I know a lot of us like 
these, these sophomore tight 

1227
01:05:57,800 --> 01:06:00,000
ends as well, who flash toward 
the end of last year? 

1228
01:06:00,300 --> 01:06:04,100
Do you think we see any kind of 
like the modified anchor tight 

1229
01:06:04,100 --> 01:06:06,500
end stuff, where people really 
start to come in again, on 

1230
01:06:06,700 --> 01:06:10,000
kittel on Waller? 
I know wohlers cheaper but the 

1231
01:06:10,000 --> 01:06:13,900
pits These guys that now you are
getting at even a cheaper price 

1232
01:06:13,900 --> 01:06:16,900
tag than they were last year. 
Do you think this, you know, 

1233
01:06:16,900 --> 01:06:18,600
Chasm is going to continue to 
hold? 

1234
01:06:20,500 --> 01:06:23,100
I'm not sure what people do. 
I thought was interesting that 

1235
01:06:23,100 --> 01:06:27,200
one of the takeaways from this 
past year was generally was 

1236
01:06:27,200 --> 01:06:30,800
like, you know man. 
We just really shouldn't have 

1237
01:06:30,800 --> 01:06:32,500
been taken any of these early 
tight ends. 

1238
01:06:32,500 --> 01:06:36,400
It's like, I had kill on my 
team, you know? 

1239
01:06:36,400 --> 01:06:40,500
And it's like to me, I'm like, I
think this year proved just how 

1240
01:06:40,500 --> 01:06:43,300
powerful really around tight end
is because Kittle didn't really 

1241
01:06:43,300 --> 01:06:48,000
do anything all year until the 
playoff weeks. 

1242
01:06:48,200 --> 01:06:54,000
And then It's like because tight
end is so gross, that's why it 

1243
01:06:54,000 --> 01:06:56,900
matters that you have a guy who 
can I know it feels. 

1244
01:06:57,000 --> 01:06:59,900
I mean it feels random because 
it is random that he happened to

1245
01:06:59,900 --> 01:07:04,400
have the spike weeks in the 
right weeks, which a week 15 and

1246
01:07:04,400 --> 01:07:06,900
16. 
But like, because it's such a 

1247
01:07:06,908 --> 01:07:11,600
gross position that like, almost
on its own, Gets You Through a 

1248
01:07:11,600 --> 01:07:15,300
single week tournament. 
It's just so, so, so powerful. 

1249
01:07:15,600 --> 01:07:19,400
And if it ends up being another 
year, where it's Kelsey, c and a

1250
01:07:19,400 --> 01:07:24,400
bunch of nothing. 
I still want, I still want a guy

1251
01:07:24,700 --> 01:07:29,900
who can have a week 15 ceiling 
game and that be enough to 

1252
01:07:29,900 --> 01:07:32,400
propel me through and the fact 
that it's a bunch of nothing 

1253
01:07:32,400 --> 01:07:35,600
outside of, Kelsey means, if, as
long as you didn't spend too 

1254
01:07:35,600 --> 01:07:38,900
much at the position, overall, 
you'll probably be fine, you 

1255
01:07:38,900 --> 01:07:41,400
know, as long as you hit on 
enough for your team. 

1256
01:07:41,400 --> 01:07:47,100
So like with with pits going in 
like the fifth sixth, I'm 

1257
01:07:47,100 --> 01:07:50,000
interested again. 
You know, I'm interested in, you

1258
01:07:50,000 --> 01:07:52,300
know, I don't want to pay like a
Third round price for these guys

1259
01:07:52,300 --> 01:07:55,200
warm Kelsey, but you don't 
really have to go outside of 

1260
01:07:55,200 --> 01:07:57,000
Andrews. 
And I actually think Andrews is,

1261
01:07:57,800 --> 01:08:01,700
is decently priced there. 
So, I think he's probably a 

1262
01:08:01,900 --> 01:08:04,300
probably Cut Above the Rest of 
the the tight ends Beyond 

1263
01:08:04,300 --> 01:08:07,500
Kelsey, but I don't know if it's
gonna hold, but I kind of like 

1264
01:08:07,800 --> 01:08:11,700
getting my you know getting some
exposure to pockets in and got 

1265
01:08:11,700 --> 01:08:16,700
her in pits and Andrews at these
prices and kettle. 

1266
01:08:18,399 --> 01:08:21,399
Yeah, I think I think I'm with 
you there and the Andrew stuff 

1267
01:08:21,399 --> 01:08:24,500
like I'm still taking a good 
amount of Andrews. 

1268
01:08:24,500 --> 01:08:29,200
I think like, there's always 
sort of ordering bias if you can

1269
01:08:29,200 --> 01:08:32,899
call it that and how we think 
about these players, if Andrews 

1270
01:08:33,100 --> 01:08:36,399
had finished the season and the 
fantasy playoffs with that 

1271
01:08:36,399 --> 01:08:38,100
stretchy, put up at the 
beginning of the year. 

1272
01:08:38,700 --> 01:08:41,100
When he was, you know, having a 
ton of good weeks. 

1273
01:08:41,200 --> 01:08:43,800
I think he would be priced 
higher, at least four. 

1274
01:08:43,800 --> 01:08:45,399
Best blocks would have that in 
her memory. 

1275
01:08:46,500 --> 01:08:48,600
Yeah, I agree with you. 
I won't guys like, Match the 

1276
01:08:48,600 --> 01:08:52,600
ceiling of Kelsey even if they 
can't match the consistency, 

1277
01:08:52,600 --> 01:08:55,500
right? 
And once you drop drop past like

1278
01:08:55,800 --> 01:08:58,399
a certain point. 
I mean, Tyler, higbee, Gerald 

1279
01:08:58,399 --> 01:09:01,399
Everett Zach ertz. 
He was guys are ever. 

1280
01:09:01,399 --> 01:09:02,899
It's a free agent though. 
Yeah. 

1281
01:09:02,899 --> 01:09:05,500
And yeah, yeah, that one is like
those. 

1282
01:09:05,500 --> 01:09:08,600
Yeah, my point is, those guys 
are like kind of debt like we've

1283
01:09:08,600 --> 01:09:11,000
I think I've seen enough of 
those guys over there, career 

1284
01:09:12,000 --> 01:09:13,399
that they're sort of like dead 
to. 

1285
01:09:13,399 --> 01:09:15,399
Give me a weekly ceiling that 
that matches. 

1286
01:09:15,399 --> 01:09:17,300
One of the elite tight ends is 
the point. 

1287
01:09:17,300 --> 01:09:19,800
I was trying to make Make. 
And again, tons of downside risk

1288
01:09:19,800 --> 01:09:24,000
that these guys are free agents 
and replaced by rookies that, 

1289
01:09:24,000 --> 01:09:25,399
you know, it's a strong tight 
and rookie class. 

1290
01:09:25,399 --> 01:09:27,899
So, what is going on with 
Earth's is ATP? 

1291
01:09:27,899 --> 01:09:32,700
I mean, like, he's coming off a 
knee injury, his quarterbacks 

1292
01:09:32,700 --> 01:09:35,700
coming off a knee injury. 
There is a rookie kite end 

1293
01:09:35,700 --> 01:09:41,200
behind him like, I don't know, 
like he shouldn't even be 

1294
01:09:41,200 --> 01:09:45,399
getting drafted. 
Yeah, this and the same thought 

1295
01:09:45,399 --> 01:09:48,500
on hurts. 
Yeah, I think he just, he's just

1296
01:09:48,500 --> 01:09:52,600
buoyed still by whatever name 
brand value he has, but like 

1297
01:09:52,600 --> 01:09:56,500
going back to the, the elite 
tight end thing. 

1298
01:09:56,500 --> 01:09:59,900
Now that we're getting these 
guys at cheaper prices, you can 

1299
01:09:59,900 --> 01:10:02,100
almost have your cake and eat it
too specifically in the big 

1300
01:10:02,100 --> 01:10:05,400
board with 20 rounds, where, you
know, they're, I think there's 

1301
01:10:05,400 --> 01:10:07,700
more of an opportunity cost. 
If you're going to verse three 

1302
01:10:07,700 --> 01:10:11,200
tight ends like invest Ball 
Mania but the whole thing of 

1303
01:10:11,200 --> 01:10:13,500
like, the reason you want the 
kid'll, or the wall art, is 

1304
01:10:13,500 --> 01:10:16,400
knowing in the money weeks, they
could put up a 30 burger and a 

1305
01:10:16,407 --> 01:10:19,200
lot of Those other guys don't 
have that capability, but 

1306
01:10:19,200 --> 01:10:22,300
because you have the luxury of 
two extra spots, you can get in 

1307
01:10:22,300 --> 01:10:25,100
a couple extra tight, end 
Stacks, or you can still get 

1308
01:10:25,100 --> 01:10:27,800
three tight ends tack on it. 
Can K2 Michael, marry whoever 

1309
01:10:28,000 --> 01:10:31,200
you want as your more friends. 
Like, it feels like less of a 

1310
01:10:31,200 --> 01:10:34,800
tough choice than it will be. 
I think in the 18 round drafts. 

1311
01:10:35,900 --> 01:10:38,500
I agree with that. 
Yeah. 100%. 

1312
01:10:38,800 --> 01:10:43,100
Yep. 
I am also taking some fryer Muth

1313
01:10:43,200 --> 01:10:47,600
and some dulcich as kind of the 
last of though, like I the tear 

1314
01:10:47,600 --> 01:10:49,000
that I want to sit out at tight 
end. 

1315
01:10:49,000 --> 01:10:52,600
Usually I'm not a big fan of 
like the tight ends going in the

1316
01:10:52,600 --> 01:10:54,900
late, single digits, early 
double-digit rounds. 

1317
01:10:55,500 --> 01:10:59,600
I usually try to be underweight 
that group or just happens that 

1318
01:10:59,600 --> 01:11:02,300
I feel that I want to be under 
way that group but like, you 

1319
01:11:02,300 --> 01:11:07,100
know, commit dulcich, fryer 
move. 

1320
01:11:07,200 --> 01:11:10,700
I think we're all pretty in toku
as well, I think are all pretty.

1321
01:11:10,700 --> 01:11:12,800
Eating going in that General 
range. 

1322
01:11:13,400 --> 01:11:17,300
Because after them, it's like, 
dudes who don't have jobs. 

1323
01:11:17,700 --> 01:11:21,500
And so if I can get, you know, 
one of those guys or two of 

1324
01:11:21,500 --> 01:11:26,300
those guys and then tack on, you
know, a rookie who might have at

1325
01:11:26,300 --> 01:11:29,200
least a small small chance of 
doing something for me, down the

1326
01:11:29,200 --> 01:11:32,000
stretch. 
I feel pretty good and I feel 

1327
01:11:32,000 --> 01:11:36,300
like, hey, I got three guys with
jobs like that's going to be. 

1328
01:11:36,300 --> 01:11:39,800
That's like that's like upside 
these days at the tight end 

1329
01:11:39,800 --> 01:11:42,300
position I got Dudes with jobs, 
maybe one of them catches a 

1330
01:11:42,300 --> 01:11:47,300
touchdown in the playoffs. 
Yeah, that definitely makes 

1331
01:11:47,300 --> 01:11:49,000
sense. 
Yeah, I think that at a certain 

1332
01:11:49,000 --> 01:11:51,700
point I'd and like you just care
about snaps. 

1333
01:11:51,700 --> 01:11:54,800
We talked about this a lot. 
If you watch statue using like 

1334
01:11:55,100 --> 01:11:58,300
tight ends that are seeing 90% 
of their team snaps and maybe 

1335
01:11:58,300 --> 01:12:01,600
are bad at football like colca 
met, I'm not saying he's bad but

1336
01:12:01,600 --> 01:12:03,900
maybe he is bad. 
Those guys can still have spiked

1337
01:12:03,900 --> 01:12:05,800
weeks because they're just on 
the field of town and eventually

1338
01:12:05,800 --> 01:12:07,600
the variance is going to swing 
in their favor. 

1339
01:12:07,700 --> 01:12:10,400
We saw a three-week stretch last
year with Cadet, where he had a 

1340
01:12:10,407 --> 01:12:12,800
bunch of touchdown some long, 
long plays down the field. 

1341
01:12:12,800 --> 01:12:14,900
So yeah, getting that getting 
that. 

1342
01:12:15,000 --> 01:12:16,800
At security of the guys that are
again. 

1343
01:12:16,800 --> 01:12:19,400
There's no guarantee that you 
know, Chicago doesn't draft the 

1344
01:12:19,407 --> 01:12:22,400
tight end that replaces commit 
but I feel way more certain that

1345
01:12:22,400 --> 01:12:27,000
could met has a role, you know, 
then adult and Schultz, then you

1346
01:12:27,000 --> 01:12:29,700
know, Gerald Everett like I said
to the guys were talking about, 

1347
01:12:29,700 --> 01:12:33,600
so I think it is worth paying a 
bit for for that role. 

1348
01:12:34,200 --> 01:12:41,100
Now, let's talk about the 
rookies quickly, this chart 

1349
01:12:41,100 --> 01:12:46,000
here, we're looking at Underdog 
ATP competitive Are to the 

1350
01:12:46,000 --> 01:12:51,900
consensus Big Board ranking via 
NFL Mock Jack draft database. 

1351
01:12:51,900 --> 01:12:56,400
So essentially what NFL mock 
draft database does for those 

1352
01:12:56,400 --> 01:12:59,300
who aren't familiar? 
They take, I think like hundreds

1353
01:12:59,300 --> 01:13:04,400
of Industry consensus, ma big 
boards and aggregate that. 

1354
01:13:04,400 --> 01:13:09,400
So you kind of have a view of 
how how NFL teams Scouts media 

1355
01:13:09,400 --> 01:13:11,700
members Etc? 
Are viewing. 

1356
01:13:11,700 --> 01:13:15,600
These players as sort of a 
signal for their Capital. 

1357
01:13:16,300 --> 01:13:19,400
Obviously, this is not this is 
not perfect this time of year 

1358
01:13:19,600 --> 01:13:22,100
like I wouldn't look at this 
chart and see where I have 

1359
01:13:22,100 --> 01:13:26,000
undervalued and overvalued label
labeled and say you know this is

1360
01:13:26,000 --> 01:13:29,200
100% facts like it's not it's 
not black and white there's 

1361
01:13:29,200 --> 01:13:32,700
definitely some gray here this 
far out before the draft but I 

1362
01:13:32,700 --> 01:13:37,000
do think it is important to. 
Look at how draft Capital 

1363
01:13:37,200 --> 01:13:40,000
protected, draft Capital 
Compares with these players 

1364
01:13:40,500 --> 01:13:45,400
atp's. 
So for me, it Running back. 

1365
01:13:45,400 --> 01:13:50,900
I'll start with my takeaways. 
I think that after I think both 

1366
01:13:50,900 --> 01:13:57,600
Gibbs and Bijan are great pics 
and then after that, I think I 

1367
01:13:57,600 --> 01:14:01,700
don't completely understand. 
Like, the ADP of guys like 

1368
01:14:01,700 --> 01:14:06,700
sharpen a talker and Spears 
compared to guys, like a chain, 

1369
01:14:07,000 --> 01:14:10,100
a chain Evans and Bigsby, it 
seems like there's a lot of 

1370
01:14:10,100 --> 01:14:13,700
places where you can just like, 
Make the Arbitrage. 

1371
01:14:13,700 --> 01:14:17,100
Pick of the guy that seems like,
you'll have just as good draft 

1372
01:14:17,100 --> 01:14:19,800
capital and it's going like 50 
pics later. 

1373
01:14:19,800 --> 01:14:22,100
Like, for example, if you 
compare to sharpen a verse a 

1374
01:14:22,100 --> 01:14:25,500
chain, a chain is going around, 
pick 150, sharpen is going in 

1375
01:14:25,500 --> 01:14:29,400
like the late 90s where but you 
know, industry consensus big 

1376
01:14:29,400 --> 01:14:32,300
boards actually have a chain 
going higher than sharpen. 

1377
01:14:32,300 --> 01:14:35,400
A so for me, it just like, I 
want to be overweight, ha and I 

1378
01:14:35,400 --> 01:14:37,000
want to be under under which are
today. 

1379
01:14:37,000 --> 01:14:39,300
Obviously there's still a ton of
uncertainty about like where 

1380
01:14:39,300 --> 01:14:43,300
these guys ultimately land so 
I'm not going I'm like 100% a 

1381
01:14:43,300 --> 01:14:46,300
chain and 0% sharpen a like I'm 
not doing that. 

1382
01:14:46,300 --> 01:14:48,100
Exactly. 
But I do want to sort of use 

1383
01:14:48,100 --> 01:14:50,400
this to inform like what do 
these prices? 

1384
01:14:50,400 --> 01:14:52,800
Just just make sense and don't 
make sense. 

1385
01:14:52,800 --> 01:14:54,800
So yeah, I guess pal kick it to 
you. 

1386
01:14:54,800 --> 01:14:58,000
Do you think there's a good 
reason for a chain to be going 

1387
01:14:58,000 --> 01:15:00,600
that much lower than charbonnet?
Like, do you see it? 

1388
01:15:00,600 --> 01:15:03,800
How I see it or do you want to 
make a counter argument to that 

1389
01:15:03,800 --> 01:15:05,700
point? 
I think a counter argument would

1390
01:15:05,700 --> 01:15:07,300
be the like Chardonnay and a 
half Point. 

1391
01:15:07,300 --> 01:15:11,100
PPR format is just a much more 
interesting archetype. 

1392
01:15:11,300 --> 01:15:13,800
He's a big dude. 
Watching him run. 

1393
01:15:13,800 --> 01:15:16,200
You're like yeah I think this is
going to translate fine. 

1394
01:15:16,900 --> 01:15:20,500
And you know you can see kind of
the touchdown upside and he's 

1395
01:15:20,500 --> 01:15:24,500
the type of guy who as a 
third-round pick in a good 

1396
01:15:24,500 --> 01:15:26,500
situation. 
We would probably feel pretty 

1397
01:15:26,500 --> 01:15:31,000
comfortable drafting ahead of a 
chain as a second round pick and

1398
01:15:31,000 --> 01:15:33,800
kind of more of a. 
Yeah, he's going to be like a 

1399
01:15:33,800 --> 01:15:35,600
rotational back type of type of 
guy. 

1400
01:15:35,600 --> 01:15:38,100
Like I don't think we would have
any problem doing that, but we 

1401
01:15:38,108 --> 01:15:41,500
don't know that's how it's going
to go and a chain. 

1402
01:15:41,700 --> 01:15:44,900
Look, Looks like he's gonna be 
like it may be a second round 

1403
01:15:44,900 --> 01:15:47,100
pick in the NFL draft. 
Maybe he's a third-round pick, 

1404
01:15:47,300 --> 01:15:49,600
but his speed isn't really in 
question. 

1405
01:15:49,600 --> 01:15:52,900
He's a sprinter, it's like 
documented the dude is really 

1406
01:15:52,900 --> 01:15:56,300
really fast so I don't get why 
he goes where he goes. 

1407
01:15:56,300 --> 01:15:59,100
I mean it's just once he gets 
drafted, where he's very likely 

1408
01:15:59,100 --> 01:16:02,000
to get drafted. 
He will not be being, he won't 

1409
01:16:02,000 --> 01:16:04,500
get drafted in on Underdog 
drafts and best ball drafts 

1410
01:16:04,500 --> 01:16:07,700
where he's being drafted now. 
So, he seems kind of, he's an 

1411
01:16:07,708 --> 01:16:10,800
easy click for me, and I don't 
really love his profile. 

1412
01:16:10,800 --> 01:16:14,000
I just think If we're talking 
about getting good prices on 

1413
01:16:14,000 --> 01:16:16,700
guys, he's one of the most 
obvious examples of. 

1414
01:16:17,100 --> 01:16:21,000
Once the NFL draft Capital comes
through or becomes exceedingly 

1415
01:16:21,000 --> 01:16:23,200
clear that it's about to come 
through there. 

1416
01:16:23,200 --> 01:16:25,800
Just he's not going to go pick 
one, 50s going to go earlier 

1417
01:16:25,800 --> 01:16:28,400
than that. 
The other question I would ask 

1418
01:16:28,400 --> 01:16:33,400
you guys about this chart is how
big of a distinction? 

1419
01:16:33,400 --> 01:16:36,300
Do we think it is being a 
fourth-round? 

1420
01:16:36,300 --> 01:16:39,700
Rookie running back, pick 
through a seventh round or six 

1421
01:16:39,700 --> 01:16:43,300
round just knowing so much of it
is going To be driven by 

1422
01:16:43,300 --> 01:16:45,800
ultimately where they're going 
the depth chart in the 

1423
01:16:45,800 --> 01:16:48,300
opportunity like how much I 
definitely get it for these 

1424
01:16:48,300 --> 01:16:50,800
early guys I think you know 
first second, round picks even 

1425
01:16:50,800 --> 01:16:54,500
third, still matter a lot, but I
just wonder on the back end. 

1426
01:16:54,500 --> 01:16:57,900
If you can draw too many 
conclusions, even by projected 

1427
01:16:57,900 --> 01:17:04,700
draft cost. 
Yeah, I'm kind of with you a 

1428
01:17:04,700 --> 01:17:09,900
Pete where I think that like for
me I sort of think of like first

1429
01:17:09,900 --> 01:17:14,200
second third round and then I 
kind of group fourth to seventh 

1430
01:17:14,300 --> 01:17:17,900
together and that's not perfect 
like maybe some early fourth 

1431
01:17:17,900 --> 01:17:19,600
round picks. 
Like that's a bit more of a 

1432
01:17:19,600 --> 01:17:21,000
signal than like a late seventh 
round. 

1433
01:17:21,000 --> 01:17:22,400
Pick for the team thinks they're
good. 

1434
01:17:22,400 --> 01:17:25,500
But Yeah, I'm really thinking 
about it. 

1435
01:17:25,500 --> 01:17:29,200
Like I want to be focusing a ton
on the guys that are getting 

1436
01:17:29,200 --> 01:17:30,900
draft in those first couple 
rounds. 

1437
01:17:31,400 --> 01:17:34,900
And then after that I think it's
much more about landing spot and

1438
01:17:34,900 --> 01:17:37,100
situation. 
Then draft Capital once we sort 

1439
01:17:37,100 --> 01:17:40,100
of get, you know, fourth through
seventh round patties. 

1440
01:17:40,100 --> 01:17:45,100
Do you see that? 
Similarly Yeah, to some extent. 

1441
01:17:45,100 --> 01:17:50,900
I think the draft Capital still 
matters a little bit, you know. 

1442
01:17:50,900 --> 01:17:54,300
Like sometimes I wonder if some 
of the early fourth round guys 

1443
01:17:54,300 --> 01:17:58,400
like I am I think maybe I've 
underrated some dudes that have 

1444
01:17:58,400 --> 01:18:00,900
gone in the early 4th especially
for the rookie Seasons like, 

1445
01:18:00,900 --> 01:18:02,300
Michael Carter. 
I was it? 

1446
01:18:02,308 --> 01:18:04,300
What are we doing? 
But it's like no he did actually

1447
01:18:04,300 --> 01:18:08,500
get a fair amount of work even 
as an early for Damian Pierce in

1448
01:18:08,500 --> 01:18:12,400
the early 4th so I think maybe 
running backs it up position. 

1449
01:18:12,700 --> 01:18:15,500
Or like kind of a point with how
the league value sit, where 

1450
01:18:15,500 --> 01:18:18,600
maybe we should factor that in a
little bit more than at least I 

1451
01:18:18,600 --> 01:18:21,000
have in the past. 
But yeah, generally I would say 

1452
01:18:21,000 --> 01:18:25,100
like day 1 Day, 2, Day 3 and 
then we're looking at situations

1453
01:18:25,100 --> 01:18:27,000
and profiles you know I think. 
Yeah. 

1454
01:18:27,000 --> 01:18:28,900
Still do. 
You don't want to just go on A 

1455
01:18:28,907 --> 01:18:30,300
draft copy of? 
You want to look at the guys who

1456
01:18:30,300 --> 01:18:35,100
were productive and are athletic
and can have flashed receiving 

1457
01:18:35,100 --> 01:18:39,000
ability or have flashed his 
special talent as as a rusher, 

1458
01:18:39,000 --> 01:18:41,900
one guy that has jumped out to 
me. 

1459
01:18:42,700 --> 01:18:44,900
Is Duane McBride in terms of 
his. 

1460
01:18:44,900 --> 01:18:48,400
And is he not on here? 
He's on the far, right? 

1461
01:18:48,400 --> 01:18:52,600
Dear a broad. 
Yeah, okay, so so I've seen 

1462
01:18:52,600 --> 01:18:57,700
pretty, so maybe these mock 
drafts disagree the mosque, but 

1463
01:18:58,400 --> 01:19:03,800
I've been looking at like, you 
know, ESPN, CBS, Dane Brugler 

1464
01:19:03,800 --> 01:19:08,800
stuff and it seems like McBride 
is someone who is kind of in the

1465
01:19:08,808 --> 01:19:12,500
mix for like a third-round pick 
type of type of Dew Drop. 

1466
01:19:12,700 --> 01:19:16,000
He's got to run. 
I might when you watch him your 

1467
01:19:16,000 --> 01:19:19,300
he could run, he could be 47 
type of speed and then his draft

1468
01:19:19,300 --> 01:19:22,400
Capital just absolutely craters.
So that's I think the the real 

1469
01:19:22,400 --> 01:19:25,000
concern he's not the not a type 
of guy would be like loading up 

1470
01:19:25,000 --> 01:19:30,100
on right now, but he goes around
pick two hundred and he is kind 

1471
01:19:30,100 --> 01:19:33,800
of a Damien Pierce type of like 
pure more. 

1472
01:19:33,800 --> 01:19:37,300
But even then Damon, he's like 
Rashad Penny, not quite as fast 

1473
01:19:37,300 --> 01:19:41,100
more, like the Damien Pierce 
short bursts, he's type stuff, 

1474
01:19:42,200 --> 01:19:46,100
but But like penny in that he is
going to be a pure to down 

1475
01:19:46,100 --> 01:19:50,100
rusher. 
So I guess in that this makes me

1476
01:19:50,100 --> 01:19:52,000
a little nervous. 
I'm seeing that the draft 

1477
01:19:52,000 --> 01:19:54,900
capitals kind of low for him, 
but I've seen some people have 

1478
01:19:54,900 --> 01:19:58,100
him pretty high in the kind of 
more like the day to mix. 

1479
01:19:58,600 --> 01:19:59,400
Okay. 
Yeah. 

1480
01:19:59,400 --> 01:20:04,000
I think the story is definitely 
not written on these guys and 

1481
01:20:04,000 --> 01:20:08,200
like this chart will change a 
ton once the combine happens, 

1482
01:20:09,000 --> 01:20:10,200
you know, interviews these 
flowers. 

1483
01:20:10,200 --> 01:20:13,900
There's a ton of big events 
coming out for the These rookie 

1484
01:20:13,900 --> 01:20:16,100
running back. 
So I expect this to change a 

1485
01:20:16,108 --> 01:20:19,000
tan, which is why I'm not like 
to Anchored on it. 

1486
01:20:19,000 --> 01:20:21,600
But, you know, as we get closer 
to the draft, I think these 

1487
01:20:21,600 --> 01:20:25,000
sorts of like consensus big 
boards or like relatively 

1488
01:20:25,000 --> 01:20:26,800
accurate, at least for the first
couple rounds. 

1489
01:20:27,400 --> 01:20:31,200
So, definitely something, I'll 
keep my my eye on going forward 

1490
01:20:32,100 --> 01:20:34,800
as we get sort of more 
information on these players 

1491
01:20:35,600 --> 01:20:40,000
wide receiver here, I'll show 
the same view for the rookie 

1492
01:20:40,000 --> 01:20:45,600
wide receivers. 
I think the big thing that's 

1493
01:20:45,600 --> 01:20:48,900
gonna jump out here is and I've 
heard you know, people talk 

1494
01:20:48,900 --> 01:20:53,100
about this already, the Quinton 
Johnson and Jordan Addison verse

1495
01:20:53,300 --> 01:20:58,900
Jackson Smith and jig ba, the 
basic story there is that sort 

1496
01:20:58,900 --> 01:21:02,300
of NFL Scouts and people making 
these mock drafts and big boards

1497
01:21:02,600 --> 01:21:05,400
generally. 
See Johnson and Addison going 

1498
01:21:05,400 --> 01:21:10,400
ahead of Jackson Smith and Jake 
ba but fantasy drafters are much

1499
01:21:10,400 --> 01:21:15,100
more excited about SN he goes 
around pick 55 whereas Johnson, 

1500
01:21:15,100 --> 01:21:18,000
Madison, or red around, pick a 
tea. 

1501
01:21:19,400 --> 01:21:24,600
So, yeah, I've been thinking 
about this a lot and trying to 

1502
01:21:24,600 --> 01:21:28,700
think if I'm missing something, 
I've largely been fading jsn, 

1503
01:21:28,700 --> 01:21:33,100
and taking Johnson and Addison, 
just because I think these 

1504
01:21:33,100 --> 01:21:36,900
prices are going to come close 
closer together after the draft.

1505
01:21:37,700 --> 01:21:41,300
I could be wrong about that 
though, I guess? 

1506
01:21:41,300 --> 01:21:43,100
See you tonight. 
I think that that's one of those

1507
01:21:43,100 --> 01:21:48,600
things that I make that I sort 
of entertained the possibility 

1508
01:21:48,600 --> 01:21:52,600
of doing and decided. 
I'm not going the whole big war 

1509
01:21:52,600 --> 01:21:55,300
without jsn because a big boards
filling too fast. 

1510
01:21:55,600 --> 01:21:58,700
I don't think there's enough 
time for people to be out on him

1511
01:21:58,800 --> 01:22:01,800
and I'm fundamentally. 
I don't know that it matters if 

1512
01:22:01,800 --> 01:22:07,600
he Do I really care if Jason is,
pick 23 and Quinton Johnson's 

1513
01:22:07,600 --> 01:22:12,700
pick 15 in, in relation to. 
Yeah, I've made a big fade 

1514
01:22:12,700 --> 01:22:15,100
stance on jsn who I think is 
very talented. 

1515
01:22:15,200 --> 01:22:17,900
I think, I think as a ton of 
upside things are really strong 

1516
01:22:17,900 --> 01:22:23,600
Prospect, and instead, I'm 
thinking, no, I'm going to mix 

1517
01:22:23,600 --> 01:22:26,300
in some jsn. 
I'm not going to be. 

1518
01:22:26,300 --> 01:22:29,400
He's too expensive for me to be 
like all in on right now. 

1519
01:22:29,400 --> 01:22:31,700
Hopefully if price Falls and I 
can have more than one other 

1520
01:22:31,700 --> 01:22:32,900
tournaments at a higher 
percentage. 

1521
01:22:34,000 --> 01:22:37,300
The guys that I but I want it, I
want to be overweight Addison 

1522
01:22:37,300 --> 01:22:40,400
and especially Johnston, who I 
feel like is his price, doesn't 

1523
01:22:40,400 --> 01:22:43,000
really reflect his draft Capital
at all. 

1524
01:22:43,100 --> 01:22:46,900
So in this tournament I'm hoping
be a little under way, Jason, 

1525
01:22:47,500 --> 01:22:50,800
big-time, overweight, Johnston, 
and then maybe by the time we 

1526
01:22:50,800 --> 01:22:55,900
get to the best while Mania, 
it's more even Yeah, that that's

1527
01:22:55,900 --> 01:22:59,700
fair and I think like Jason's 
fancy profile is probably more 

1528
01:22:59,700 --> 01:23:03,600
exciting than other two guys. 
So they should be all I'll be 

1529
01:23:03,600 --> 01:23:05,200
going close together with maybe 
JS. 

1530
01:23:05,200 --> 01:23:08,100
I'm going a little bit higher. 
I just think the Gap is too big 

1531
01:23:08,100 --> 01:23:11,500
but I will I do too. 
Yeah, yeah. 

1532
01:23:11,700 --> 01:23:14,900
I will probably start taking 
some jsn. 

1533
01:23:15,000 --> 01:23:18,800
It's just like putting in 
context of rookie wide receivers

1534
01:23:18,800 --> 01:23:21,300
or the past several years. 
Like it's a very expensive 

1535
01:23:21,300 --> 01:23:22,600
price. 
He's going and sort of like the 

1536
01:23:22,600 --> 01:23:25,900
Jamar Chase range. 
He's going well ahead of like 

1537
01:23:26,000 --> 01:23:29,600
waddle Allah. 
Vague are Wilson Drake London, 

1538
01:23:29,700 --> 01:23:31,900
all these other rookie wide 
receivers that have gone like 

1539
01:23:32,000 --> 01:23:35,400
you know top 15 and NFL draft 
and we're really excited about 

1540
01:23:36,000 --> 01:23:39,300
jsn is going like significantly 
higher than them with the 

1541
01:23:39,300 --> 01:23:43,300
exception of Chase. 
So I'm just thinking like I 

1542
01:23:43,300 --> 01:23:46,700
don't know like is it and that 
might be like not the perfect 

1543
01:23:46,700 --> 01:23:49,000
way to think about it because 
Chase was a smash at that price.

1544
01:23:49,000 --> 01:23:51,100
So like he doesn't have to be 
chaste to pay off their. 

1545
01:23:51,900 --> 01:23:56,800
It just seems like A little, a 
little overvalued but ultimately

1546
01:23:56,800 --> 01:23:59,700
not a place where I want like a 
hard hard fade on him. 

1547
01:24:00,000 --> 01:24:01,700
That's where I'm at. 
Yeah. 

1548
01:24:03,500 --> 01:24:06,400
Awesome. 
Let's end the show guys. 

1549
01:24:06,400 --> 01:24:09,400
Talking about, we can put these 
charts away. 

1550
01:24:10,000 --> 01:24:13,400
Something I want to keep track 
of over the course of the year 

1551
01:24:13,800 --> 01:24:15,500
is just what our favorite values
are. 

1552
01:24:15,500 --> 01:24:17,300
And let's define this as like 
players. 

1553
01:24:17,300 --> 01:24:22,300
We think are going to give us 
the highest closing line value. 

1554
01:24:22,400 --> 01:24:26,700
Hmm by August or whenever BBM 
for closes. 

1555
01:24:26,700 --> 01:24:32,500
So think of it that way curious 
and starting with you, Pete, who

1556
01:24:32,500 --> 01:24:36,200
is your favorite value right now
on the big board. 

1557
01:24:37,200 --> 01:24:40,400
It's funny because of how fluid 
it was because I got caught up 

1558
01:24:40,400 --> 01:24:42,800
in some of the Anthony 
Richardson height because of 

1559
01:24:42,800 --> 01:24:45,900
spags and Pat. 
And now he's already like 

1560
01:24:45,900 --> 01:24:49,500
screaming table draft board. 
So if you drafted him before 

1561
01:24:49,500 --> 01:24:52,300
this like you know, in the past 
week I think you're going to 

1562
01:24:52,300 --> 01:24:57,700
have some really good CLD there.
I believe I had 75% before this 

1563
01:24:57,700 --> 01:24:58,800
week's. 
Uh, yeah. 

1564
01:24:59,300 --> 01:25:02,800
I guess what I'll say I'll 
continue and I'll say, I'll say 

1565
01:25:02,800 --> 01:25:05,400
the pan. 
There's because I did draft a 

1566
01:25:05,400 --> 01:25:07,700
ton of DJ more. 
I've been taking chuba and 

1567
01:25:07,700 --> 01:25:10,300
Deonte Foreman in a ton of 
drafts like I said, starting to 

1568
01:25:10,308 --> 01:25:13,500
come around on Terrace Marshall 
I think all of those guys are 

1569
01:25:13,500 --> 01:25:17,600
going to continue to rise up and
I don't I feel like Carolina 

1570
01:25:17,600 --> 01:25:18,700
kind of made their decision 
right? 

1571
01:25:18,700 --> 01:25:21,500
They moved away from the Bell 
cow back. 

1572
01:25:21,500 --> 01:25:23,200
They realized you don't build 
through that. 

1573
01:25:23,200 --> 01:25:26,700
They don't strike me as a team 
that's going to invest a lot 

1574
01:25:26,800 --> 01:25:29,000
either in the draft or free 
agency and they're running back 

1575
01:25:29,000 --> 01:25:30,000
room. 
I feel like they feel like they 

1576
01:25:30,008 --> 01:25:33,200
have a good thing going with 
chuba and Beyond to format and I

1577
01:25:33,208 --> 01:25:36,900
think, once people realize that 
that is going to be kind of the 

1578
01:25:36,900 --> 01:25:39,900
backfield there, that both of 
those guys will start to get 

1579
01:25:39,900 --> 01:25:43,000
thrust up into more of a 0 or B 
Zone as opposed to just like 

1580
01:25:43,000 --> 01:25:45,100
completely free. 
So I'll say the Panthers 

1581
01:25:45,100 --> 01:25:48,200
backfield, wasn't it? 
Forms a free agent, right? 

1582
01:25:51,200 --> 01:25:54,900
I've been taking a lot of hover 
because Foreman is a free agent.

1583
01:25:57,200 --> 01:25:58,800
I think that you're right, 
that's right. 

1584
01:25:58,900 --> 01:26:00,300
Yep. 
Yeah, he was just on a one-year 

1585
01:26:00,300 --> 01:26:02,500
contract unrestored. 
Hover was played, pretty well 

1586
01:26:02,500 --> 01:26:04,600
last year, so, so I think I'll 
Birds it. 

1587
01:26:04,700 --> 01:26:06,800
I like Hubbard a lot. 
I like that call. 

1588
01:26:08,300 --> 01:26:09,500
Yeah. 
Like I like Hubbard's, you 

1589
01:26:09,500 --> 01:26:11,400
haven't taken a much. 
I think that's a bit of a blind 

1590
01:26:11,400 --> 01:26:13,300
spot, but that makes a lot of 
sense. 

1591
01:26:14,100 --> 01:26:17,300
Pat, who's your, who's your 
prediction for player that's 

1592
01:26:17,300 --> 01:26:21,000
going to screen off? 
The board is the most, so this 

1593
01:26:21,000 --> 01:26:26,000
isn't exactly screaming up the 
boards but I think Bruce Hall 

1594
01:26:26,200 --> 01:26:29,100
you're not getting a 2 3. 
Turn Breeze Hall in August. 

1595
01:26:29,100 --> 01:26:33,000
You're just not fair and if 
you're not, it might be because 

1596
01:26:33,000 --> 01:26:36,800
his ACL timeline has taken a, a 
sour turn and you're getting 

1597
01:26:36,800 --> 01:26:37,700
forth. 
Fifth round. 

1598
01:26:37,700 --> 01:26:39,500
Rizal. 
That's certainly a possibility. 

1599
01:26:39,500 --> 01:26:42,500
But I think the way things have 
come out so far, you know, he's 

1600
01:26:42,500 --> 01:26:49,000
ahead of schedule, he flashed 
top five fantasy Talent, you 

1601
01:26:49,000 --> 01:26:51,900
know, I was running things 
through the the screener that I 

1602
01:26:51,900 --> 01:26:53,700
use for the legendary running 
backs article. 

1603
01:26:54,900 --> 01:26:57,600
You know that, I'll be writing 
again this summer and Bruce 

1604
01:26:57,600 --> 01:26:59,800
Hall. 
Finished number one among all 

1605
01:26:59,800 --> 01:27:02,900
running backs this year in sort 
of check in the boxes of what 

1606
01:27:02,900 --> 01:27:05,600
we're looking for there. 
Being young, being very 

1607
01:27:05,600 --> 01:27:09,500
explosive, being very efficient,
being A receiver, you know, 

1608
01:27:09,700 --> 01:27:15,800
he's, you know, I think a very 
strong candidate to have a 

1609
01:27:15,800 --> 01:27:20,200
legendary 23 + P PR Point 
Season, you know, as strong and 

1610
01:27:20,208 --> 01:27:22,100
Canada as we have probably 
McCaffrey. 

1611
01:27:22,100 --> 01:27:25,300
You'd say it's a better bet, but
but outside of McCaffrey you 

1612
01:27:25,300 --> 01:27:28,900
know I think he healthy version 
of him might be the second best 

1613
01:27:28,900 --> 01:27:35,600
bet for that like extreme upside
on the board and the Jets might 

1614
01:27:35,600 --> 01:27:38,700
be getting a quarterback upgrade
and when I say might be, it's 

1615
01:27:38,700 --> 01:27:41,600
like almost definitely to some 
extent will be upgrading over 

1616
01:27:41,600 --> 01:27:43,800
Zach Wilson. 
Whether that's Jimmy Garoppolo 

1617
01:27:44,100 --> 01:27:46,000
whether that's Aaron. 
Rodgers mean, they? 

1618
01:27:46,000 --> 01:27:47,800
Well, that's Derek J. 
Just told Derek card be a 

1619
01:27:47,800 --> 01:27:50,200
first-ballot hall-of-famer. 
If he signs with them, like they

1620
01:27:50,200 --> 01:27:53,000
are desperate, they're bringing 
somebody in. 

1621
01:27:53,300 --> 01:27:58,100
So I don't that doesn't feel 
fully priced in and the market, 

1622
01:27:58,100 --> 01:28:00,800
maybe being a little bit more 
prudent than me right now. 

1623
01:28:01,100 --> 01:28:03,800
In reflecting the fact that 
there is some downside risk with

1624
01:28:03,800 --> 01:28:08,700
the ACL tear, but I'm confident 
that things are trending in the 

1625
01:28:08,700 --> 01:28:10,300
right direction on the health 
front. 

1626
01:28:10,400 --> 01:28:13,400
And if that continues to be the 
case, he's going to be more like

1627
01:28:13,400 --> 01:28:17,100
the 108. 
I think I don't know, maybe he 

1628
01:28:17,100 --> 01:28:18,300
goes even a little higher than 
that. 

1629
01:28:18,900 --> 01:28:21,500
Are you taking him? 
Because he goes pretty close to 

1630
01:28:21,500 --> 01:28:25,100
Kenneth Walker. 
And so I need to adjust my I 

1631
01:28:25,100 --> 01:28:26,900
think you sort of suede me a bit
on Bryce. 

1632
01:28:26,900 --> 01:28:29,900
But I've been sort of doing the 
simple thing where I'm like, 

1633
01:28:29,900 --> 01:28:31,600
guys, going close to Walker. 
I'm sure. 

1634
01:28:31,600 --> 01:28:34,500
Walker's healthy. 
I'm gonna take Walker and it's 

1635
01:28:34,500 --> 01:28:36,800
over Breeze. 
Are you pretty confident that he

1636
01:28:36,800 --> 01:28:42,000
should be going ahead of Walker?
I am Walker did not have a 

1637
01:28:42,000 --> 01:28:46,000
receiving profile coming in. 
He played a lot of snaps so if 

1638
01:28:46,000 --> 01:28:47,900
he played more snaps than I 
thought he would, but he still 

1639
01:28:47,900 --> 01:28:51,700
didn't get used to time as a 
receiver Seattle's. 

1640
01:28:51,700 --> 01:28:54,100
Not really a team that's 
prioritized getting the ball to 

1641
01:28:54,100 --> 01:28:56,900
their running back as a receiver
anyway. 

1642
01:28:58,100 --> 01:29:01,100
And so when you're taking a 
running back in the first two 

1643
01:29:01,100 --> 01:29:03,900
rounds, I really do feel 
strongly that you want them to 

1644
01:29:03,907 --> 01:29:06,300
have access. 
Even in best ball, you know, 

1645
01:29:06,300 --> 01:29:09,000
it's probably more important to 
manage leagues to be going for 

1646
01:29:09,000 --> 01:29:11,100
the Mega ceiling pics, but I 
think even at best ball. 

1647
01:29:11,100 --> 01:29:15,200
You want guys, at least have 
access to the Mega legendary 

1648
01:29:15,200 --> 01:29:19,400
type seasons. 
And I think Hall has a much much

1649
01:29:19,400 --> 01:29:22,800
stronger profile there just 
because of the receiving and 

1650
01:29:22,800 --> 01:29:24,300
he's just as explosive as 
Walker. 

1651
01:29:24,300 --> 01:29:27,200
And I think he's Walker really 
struggled with consistency, his 

1652
01:29:27,200 --> 01:29:30,400
success rate in NFL next-gen 
success rate on him. 

1653
01:29:30,400 --> 01:29:33,000
He was pretty bad and just 
watching him you know you get 

1654
01:29:33,000 --> 01:29:35,600
stuffed a lot of the line. 
He's a very Much kind of a 

1655
01:29:35,608 --> 01:29:39,300
hit-or-miss explosion back. 
That doesn't strike me. 

1656
01:29:39,300 --> 01:29:41,500
Really the type of guy who's all
that likely to put up an 

1657
01:29:41,500 --> 01:29:44,500
incredible season on the ground.
I think you're more looking at 

1658
01:29:44,500 --> 01:29:47,200
some some nice Spike weeks mixed
in. 

1659
01:29:48,400 --> 01:29:51,800
So I don't mind Walker where 
he's going, but briefs strikes 

1660
01:29:51,800 --> 01:29:54,800
me as someone who could end up 
being a smashing in a similar 

1661
01:29:54,800 --> 01:29:57,400
way to like how Sake One Barkley
was going around the two, three 

1662
01:29:57,400 --> 01:30:00,500
turn at the start of drops last 
year and then by the end, you 

1663
01:30:00,500 --> 01:30:01,900
know, he's going in the late 
first. 

1664
01:30:03,100 --> 01:30:04,900
Okay. 
Yeah, you saw me a bit on on 

1665
01:30:04,900 --> 01:30:07,300
Hall, I think. 
I need to definitely adjust my 

1666
01:30:07,300 --> 01:30:10,600
stance on him. 
So my favorite value in this is 

1667
01:30:10,800 --> 01:30:15,100
getting into a grocer name then 
then haul. 

1668
01:30:15,100 --> 01:30:19,000
But my favorite right now, 
valued right now is Rashad penny

1669
01:30:19,000 --> 01:30:23,700
at ADP of 185 and this is maybe 
going slightly against what we 

1670
01:30:23,700 --> 01:30:26,300
were talking about earlier where
it's like some of these free 

1671
01:30:26,300 --> 01:30:28,900
agent running backs. 
Could be really left out. 

1672
01:30:28,900 --> 01:30:31,800
But I think with Penny that's 
already fully baked in at that 

1673
01:30:31,800 --> 01:30:35,600
low of a ADP, and he's just way 
too talented of a running back 

1674
01:30:35,600 --> 01:30:39,700
to be going that late. 
I really see him as sort of a, 

1675
01:30:39,800 --> 01:30:42,500
you know, big hit small loss 
type player. 

1676
01:30:42,500 --> 01:30:47,400
We're even like, you know if you
re signs with Seattle and maybe 

1677
01:30:47,400 --> 01:30:49,400
that should be the market 
expectation, right now, he 

1678
01:30:49,400 --> 01:30:53,100
should be going and sort of like
the talented handcuffed and type

1679
01:30:53,100 --> 01:30:55,400
range around like pick 130 to 
140. 

1680
01:30:55,400 --> 01:30:58,000
I think where it's just a 
contingent play that Walker goes

1681
01:30:58,000 --> 01:31:01,500
down and and Penny becomes the 
lead guy but there's also tons 

1682
01:31:01,500 --> 01:31:05,600
of upside Rio's where he lands, 
you know, on a team where you 

1683
01:31:05,600 --> 01:31:08,700
can compete for a starting job. 
Maybe the Bears competing with 

1684
01:31:08,700 --> 01:31:12,200
Khalil Herbert maybe 
Philadelphia if Sanders leaves 

1685
01:31:12,300 --> 01:31:16,000
Buffalo, if Singletary leaves. 
Like, there's some upside 

1686
01:31:16,000 --> 01:31:18,600
scenarios where you could push 
for a starting job and some on 

1687
01:31:18,600 --> 01:31:21,800
some good teams. 
So I just think overall, like I 

1688
01:31:21,800 --> 01:31:28,300
have a hard time seeing how is 
ATP Falls from pick 185? 

1689
01:31:28,600 --> 01:31:32,100
So I have like 50 plus percent 
exposure to Richard Penny had 

1690
01:31:32,300 --> 01:31:34,400
think again and back to the 
talent. 

1691
01:31:34,500 --> 01:31:37,400
He's he's just a really talented
running back. 

1692
01:31:37,400 --> 01:31:40,600
I think he had that amazing 
stretch the end of 2021. 

1693
01:31:40,600 --> 01:31:43,500
He's only 27 years old. 
Like I don't get what I'm 

1694
01:31:43,500 --> 01:31:46,200
missing at that price. 
I just think he's a mega smash 

1695
01:31:47,300 --> 01:31:48,600
I'm with you. 
I've been taking a lot of them. 

1696
01:31:50,900 --> 01:31:53,600
He reminds me a little bit. 
Maybe a of, you know, how James 

1697
01:31:53,600 --> 01:31:57,500
Conner, two years ago was was a 
smashing and, you know, he 

1698
01:31:57,500 --> 01:32:00,400
obviously came up in price once 
he landed with the Cardinals but

1699
01:32:00,400 --> 01:32:03,500
I could see him doing that to 
someone coming in and being 

1700
01:32:03,500 --> 01:32:06,500
like, okay, you're here to be 
behind this other guy. 

1701
01:32:06,500 --> 01:32:09,300
He's like, no, I'm not. 
I'm just starting running back. 

1702
01:32:11,100 --> 01:32:13,100
Yeah, I definitely see the 
snares with him and it's, yeah, 

1703
01:32:13,100 --> 01:32:15,900
it's the, you know, the 
injury-prone discount that we 

1704
01:32:15,900 --> 01:32:18,700
see in a lot of players. 
It's may be justified a bit for 

1705
01:32:18,700 --> 01:32:20,600
Penny because of his career, but
this injury. 

1706
01:32:20,700 --> 01:32:24,700
Was you know it wasn't something
that I think you can chalk up to

1707
01:32:24,700 --> 01:32:28,100
injury-prone this so I'm not too
worried about that. 

1708
01:32:29,400 --> 01:32:32,300
Awesome. 
Well that's that's all I have 

1709
01:32:32,300 --> 01:32:35,400
for today. 
Again, really excited to be be 

1710
01:32:35,400 --> 01:32:39,500
doing the show this off season 
Davis will be joining, although 

1711
01:32:39,500 --> 01:32:42,700
we ended up touting. 
Both CH and taysom hill without 

1712
01:32:42,700 --> 01:32:46,000
him. 
So I'm not really on the show. 

1713
01:32:48,300 --> 01:32:51,500
Our work is done here. 
Yeah, well I do have a, I'm 

1714
01:32:51,500 --> 01:32:55,600
imagining Davis in in the lift 
in the gondola, you know, just 

1715
01:32:55,600 --> 01:32:57,800
listening to this pot and be 
like, all right, all right, they

1716
01:32:57,800 --> 01:32:59,500
got it, they covered it. 
Like Covered it. 

1717
01:32:59,500 --> 01:33:02,700
Well, as someone who, you know, 
Davis hangs out in the deposit 

1718
01:33:02,700 --> 01:33:05,100
Kingdom disk, or, and I see how 
much he's been posting and some 

1719
01:33:05,100 --> 01:33:07,000
of the other channels and he 
doesn't seem like he's 

1720
01:33:07,000 --> 01:33:10,500
unplugging on the slopes, what I
can tell. 

1721
01:33:10,500 --> 01:33:13,000
So I have kind of surprised. 
He didn't even find a way to get

1722
01:33:13,000 --> 01:33:18,000
on this, but yeah, Sam, awesome 
day Buicks super excited to host

1723
01:33:18,000 --> 01:33:22,200
you here on ship chasing over 
the course of the summer. 

1724
01:33:22,300 --> 01:33:24,900
I think we'll probably kind of 
have to tweak the schedule just 

1725
01:33:24,900 --> 01:33:26,800
a teeny bit. 
We'll find more of a time 

1726
01:33:26,800 --> 01:33:30,300
though, that you guys can all 
Bank on and you can On Sam and 

1727
01:33:30,300 --> 01:33:33,400
Davis and then you know Pat and 
myself and Gretsch cycling 

1728
01:33:33,400 --> 01:33:35,500
through when we can. 
But you guys are going to be in 

1729
01:33:35,500 --> 01:33:37,400
great hands with Sam, the charts
are awesome. 

1730
01:33:37,400 --> 01:33:40,100
Sam are going to make those 
charts available on Twitter as 

1731
01:33:40,100 --> 01:33:43,300
well after the show's. 
Yeah, I'll be, I'll be posting 

1732
01:33:43,800 --> 01:33:45,800
the charred. 
I haven't figured out exactly. 

1733
01:33:45,800 --> 01:33:49,300
But they'll be public on Twitter
or some other medium throughout 

1734
01:33:49,300 --> 01:33:51,800
the course of the offseason. 
So for those of you listening 

1735
01:33:51,900 --> 01:33:54,600
Along on audio and highly 
recommend looking at the charts 

1736
01:33:54,600 --> 01:33:57,300
because, you know, we've just 
drawn, a few conclusions, you 

1737
01:33:57,300 --> 01:34:00,200
can definitely look at them and 
take your own spin on things of 

1738
01:34:00,200 --> 01:34:03,700
highly recommend that. 
Yeah, for sure. 

1739
01:34:04,300 --> 01:34:07,800
Alright guys, we appreciate you.
We will be back as usual on 

1740
01:34:07,800 --> 01:34:13,200
Wednesday at 9:15. 
Thank you to Sam for getting us 

1741
01:34:13,200 --> 01:34:17,100
rolling with ATP. 
Chasing, thank you to Pat for 

1742
01:34:17,100 --> 01:34:18,800
hanging out. 
Thank you to you guys in the 

1743
01:34:18,800 --> 01:34:20,300
chat. 
Awesome chat today, by the way, 

1744
01:34:20,300 --> 01:34:23,900
you guys were bringing bringing 
the Heat and adding some really 

1745
01:34:23,900 --> 01:34:26,500
nice additional context to 
everything, so you guys are rock

1746
01:34:26,500 --> 01:34:28,200
stars. 
As always, feel free to join us 

1747
01:34:28,200 --> 01:34:31,000
in the ship chasing Discord. 
If you're a YouTube member happy

1748
01:34:31,000 --> 01:34:32,500
to help you get that set up 
Tech. 

1749
01:34:32,600 --> 01:34:36,000
Wise, if you are struggling with
that, but enjoy your weekends 

1750
01:34:36,000 --> 01:34:38,200
for Sam, for Pat and Pete. 
See you on Wednesday.