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All right, welcome back to the 
Ship chasing Mini soda series. 

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We kicked this off with our 
first episode, talking some high

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level strategy for the contest 
and then looking at our 

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decisions at the 1-2 turn. 
You guys heard us debating some 

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of those. 
Spoiler alert here. 

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We did end up taking a J. 
Brown and then CD Lamb comes 

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back around to us. 
We were pretty interested in a 

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Monroe St. 
Brown as well. 

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That doesn't happen. 
But we happily scoop up a J 

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Brown and CD Lamb and now we are
on the clock. 

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Literally on the clock this time
at 311, we see the quarterbacks 

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come off the board. 
Josh Jacobs, Keenan Allen, TJ 

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Hawkinson. 
How are you guys feeling about 

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this spot here? 
Well, there was a potential for 

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a nice falling value and we 
didn't really get that. 

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So that's a little bit of a 
bummer, but we did get the two 

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guys we were debating at the 1-2
turn. 

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Both of them. 
So that was pretty sweet, yeah. 

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The recap that we got a J Brown 
and then CD Lame on the wrap. 

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So I can't. 
You know, we can't complain too 

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much after a pretty sweet first 
two rounds. 

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Yeah. 
And I, so I agree with you, we 

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don't really get a great phone, 
but I mean like the the fact 

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that like Hawkins san or Jacobs 
with the holdout risk almost 

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made it backwards pretty 
exciting I guess sort of just 

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jumping ahead to where we want 
to go with it, I mean. 

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In the last 17 picks, there's 
only been 4 receivers. 

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There's only been two receivers 
through the third round. 

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We're at FFPC rooms now, right? 
We got, we got some QB's going. 

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Lamar ends up going in the 
third. 

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We talked a little bit about 
taking Andrews early to try to 

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take Lamar. 
It's not the Andrews drafter who

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takes Lamar, The Andrews drafter
takes Allen and then Lamar goes 

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to pick after. 
But we if we had taken Andrews, 

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who wouldn't have been able to 
get Lamar back? 

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It's very much our type of. 
Situation where like it's easy 

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to piss yellow now, like when 
all this stuff happens for four 

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receivers in the last 17 picks. 
And so the guy that that I'm 

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kind of fixated on with this 
pick and we talked a little bit 

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I think even on our 1-2 turn 
about Keenan and Debo being guys

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that we like to the 3-4 turn 
Keenan goes. 

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But Debo Samuel is 1 and he's a 
I think a really similar play to

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what Pat made a really good case
on a J. 

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Brown that eventually got me 
around to it. 

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And I mean sort of funny, but 
like, I kind of needed to be 

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sold on A J. 
Brown. 

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But I I have this mindset of 
like, I want to hit a home run 

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on every pec. 
And Pete, you use this 

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terminology a lot on your 
streams about like just 

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sometimes taking the single. 
And what Pat's point was when we

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recorded our first mini so it 
was like Agent Brown's got a 2.5

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yards per out run four straight 
years. 

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Like, he's not a single if I 
don't, if I'm even right that he

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can't hit a home run from that 
ADP, he's still like a 

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guaranteed triple right? 
And Debo Samuel sort of similar 

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when you look at his long term, 
I mean last year was a down 

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year, but I mean I just, it's a 
similar bet in the sense of like

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I just think if you start with a
J. 

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Brown CD, Liam, Debo Samuel, 
you're starting with three 

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really good football players. 
There's offensive concerns 

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through all three of those in 
terms of like actual ceilings. 

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But man, like that's that's 
three really guys that I'm very 

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confident are very good football
players. 

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Yeah. 
And are we all in agreement real

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quick though, just that this 
pick is for sure a wide 

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receiver. 
I mean, I just tapped through on

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the Command Center for those of 
you guys who are seeing the 

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video version, I mean. 
Can you do that slower? 

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But cuz I wanna say this what 
you're seeing? 

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So, so quarterbacks just to rule
out borough, fields? 

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Herbert. 
Nothing. 

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There PJ Brown, City Lamb 
running back. 

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You have Naji Harris, Joe Mixon,
ETN, Aaron Jones, Walker. 

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I believe Gibbs would have been 
the one name we would have 

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considered at this spot and he 
goes at the 2-3 turn. 

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I guess we could entertain ETN 
but it still seems a little 

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early based on his ADP. 
Yeah, I think the big case that 

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could be made is, I think you 
could DK Metcalf has fallen here

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and we see that all ahead of 
Debo. 

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And then just to do the tight 
end stuff, we didn't get the 

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Andrews that we talked about. 
You do have Kittle and Pitts. 

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It puts us in an interesting 
spot because even coming back 

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around in the beginning of the 
fourth they would be reaches by 

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a DP. 
However, they are definitely not

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coming back to 511 and so that's
really the big decision and then

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it just gets you back to wide 
receiver, at least with this 

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pick for sure wide. 
And I don't have a lot of DK 

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Metcalf. 
I don't take him much. 

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I do tend to take him over Debo 
Samuel because he's just Debo's 

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often here and D K's rarely here
is really what it just comes 

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down to. 
So building out a best Paul 

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portfolio, I'm like I'll take my
DK when I get my chance, but in 

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order for me to take DK. 
Everyone except Keenan Allen has

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to be off the board. 
Like I I'm not really that into 

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him. 
I don't take him until I feel 

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like like I'm willing to take 
him as the first wide receiver 

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of this post T Higgins Tier, but
really only because the market 

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likes him so much. 
So I guess what I would say is 

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if we are planning on going wide
receiver, wide receiver here, 

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then I would. 
Say we should at least talk 

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through DK Metcalf because Debo 
Samuels more like to make more 

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likely to make it back. 
So it's sort of like what's the 

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who's our, who's our backup wide
receiver to Debo Samuel. 

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How big is that gap? 
Does that make it worth gambling

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to try to get both DK Metcalf 
and DK Debo Samuel? 

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And and how big is the gap 
between Debo and DK for you 

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guys? 
I think that does make What 

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makes this hard for me is I have
Debo, I had a Metcalf, but I do 

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have these guys kind of like in 
a similar tier. 

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But then after Debo I would be 
Metcalf over Ridley, Amari, Judy

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probably in that range. 
I've been very scared of 

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Metcalf's prices in underdog in 
the early 3rd. 

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I am very worried about what JSN
is going to do to him. 

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But like you're saying, you are 
getting a nice discount here and

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it makes it hard because it's 
that it's almost like the Amanra

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St. 
Brown problem from the 1-2 turn,

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right where we really like him. 
But we thought, can we play the 

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ADP game and get two guys we 
really like. 

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I have a feeling if we go Debo 
here, DK Metcalf gets snapped 

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up. 
If we go DK Metcalf and Debo 

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gets snapped up, now all of a 
sudden we didn't get our 

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preferred player and we're 
getting a secondary non 

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preferred player after that. 
Yeah, that's that's the really 

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tricky element. 
Is like you, the last thing 

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you'd want to do is not take 
your preferred player and then 

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have Debo go. 
And I understand trying to play 

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for Debo. 
The DK thing that I would ask, I

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haven't been taking him a lot of
underarch either. 

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I've heard both of you guys make
that case. 

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I've yet to talk to a lot of 
people who like his price. 

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I think when you're building an 
underdog portfolio, this is a 

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great example of 1 where when he
falls, you take a little bit of 

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him. 
Cuz you're like, yeah, I mean 

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I'm building a huge portfolio. 
These are cheap drafts. 

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Like I'm gonna get some of him. 
But like where do we actually 

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think he should go? 
Because I think with JSN like 

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he's mispriced by us like a a 
solid round. 

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I think I would have Debo ahead 
of him as well straight up. 

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I think it's a pretty 
significant mispriced by the 

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market which is largely because 
and we see in this draft, once T

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Higgins goes off the board 
there's not really a clear wide 

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receiver 15, right? 
And so it's been Debo all 

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offseason in this draft the way 
that the high stakes drafters 

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responded with seven straight 
non wide receiver picks and then

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Keenan Allen goes late 3rd. 
But Debo, I mean DK has been 

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filling that in in best ball and
and consistently sitting there 

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and he's not going to fall too 
far from there because when he's

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does start to fall in an 
individual draft people just 

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scoop him up from structural 
reasons. 

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Yeah they want to get some 
exposure whatever. 

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I do feel like his I would way 
rather be open to taking like a 

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JSN later and not feeling like 
I'm you know over well. 

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I mean, we could, we could 
obviously double stack Seattle, 

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but you're less likely to do 
that and. 

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And manage then, you know, 
obviously an underdog, it's like

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an easy Click to to to like 
stack up an offense. 

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But we might not want to 
necessarily do that. 

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I would rather play Seattle 
through the cheaper pieces is 

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sort of the way that I put it. 
That's kind of stealing that 

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from Sean Siegel. 
That's the way he usually puts 

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that stuff to me. 
It's just like I don't see how 

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Debo makes sense in the third 
round even as he's behind ADPI. 

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Do agree that like. 
You know, from a value 

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perspective and a structural 
build perspective, this gives us

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something unique at least. 
Yeah, it's it's an interesting 

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point that his ADP is, like, so 
egregious that it's actually 

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keeping his ADP in place. 
Because, yeah, I take him at the

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top of this wide receiver tier 
not because I like him the most,

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but because he's often taken 
ahead of Breese Hall, Andre 

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Stephenson and Mark Andrews. 
And I'm like, not taking him 

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ahead of those guys. 
So yeah, I end up like. 

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Taking him earlier than even I 
think he should go. 

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I mean, I I would take Keenan 
Allen over him. 

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I like Terry Mclaurin more than 
him. 

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Like that's, you know, like and 
that feels kind of gross to say.

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But I mean Mclaurin is I think 
the clear number one on an 

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offense that's going to be more 
concentrated than the Seahawks 

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will be. 
Now like I I think JSN is a 

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really good prospect. 
I think he's going to carve out 

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a role very quickly, very 
quickly, meaning at some point 

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this season he'll have a 
meaningful role that's going to 

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hurt Metcalf some. 
So and then some of my stuff 

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lock it comes out as the higher 
is the better bet. 

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Now I I think I don't think he's
the better bet because I think 

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he is more at risk of JSN than 
Metcalf like in terms of routes 

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and stuff. 
But like if you just look at the

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efficiency stuff, I mean it's a 
big premium you're paying for 

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Metcalf over lock it. 
So I guess I don't. 

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I'm not going to pound the table
for us scooping the value here. 

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I just, I do think we should at 
least talk it through because 

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that kind of sitting at the top 
of the the applet and then it's 

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Naji Harris, Calvin Ridley, Joe 
Mixon, Amari Cooper and then 

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Debo. 
So it feels at least 50-50 that 

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we would get Debo. 
I would. 

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Like to say with the Metcalf for
sure, just like literally just 

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now, like everyone, even in the 
ship chasing discord, they're 

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talking about this Devo quote 
that went out to where Again, 

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not that this should change 
anything, but I do feel 

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obligated to read this pull up, 
this Shafter thing, which is 

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very funny. 
But the point is, is that Debo 

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is going to be talked about and 
on everyone's mind. 49ers wide 

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receiver Devo Samuel has been 
determined to prove to head 

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coach Kyle Shanahan and others 
he will be better prepared this 

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season. 
Never had a grown man sent me so

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many pictures of himself with 
his shirt off, but he looked 

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good. 
That's, I mean, that's one of 

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the best quotes of the 
offseason. 

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00:10:52,230 --> 00:10:53,870
Right, I mean. 
Right. 

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That's, I know we're. 
Not going to let that quote 

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affect us, but we are taking 
Debo Samuel now, right? 

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Now that we've read that, so to 
me, like if we all feel 

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similarly that there's other 
guys we can make cases for over 

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Metcalf even with Debo off the 
board. 

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00:11:12,590 --> 00:11:16,390
Like to me that just pushes us 
like we take Debo here. 

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00:11:16,870 --> 00:11:20,950
If the room gives us DK Metcalf 
on a silver platter at 4 two, we

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00:11:20,950 --> 00:11:24,990
say thank you and we move on. 
And if not, we talk through 

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Mclaurin, Judy, whatever other 
wide receivers we think can 

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hang. 
Or can part of the reason I kind

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00:11:32,910 --> 00:11:36,510
of like taking the receiver we 
like is at 402, I do think 

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00:11:36,510 --> 00:11:40,630
that's where you could get into 
a Travis ETN or a reach on a 

221
00:11:40,670 --> 00:11:42,830
tight end discussion at least, 
but. 

222
00:11:43,830 --> 00:11:46,590
I don't think we, we like, 
necessarily have to go that way.

223
00:11:46,590 --> 00:11:49,830
But it does leave U.S. 
Open if like the turn goes 

224
00:11:49,830 --> 00:11:52,390
receiver. 
Receiver, maybe, I guess. 

225
00:11:52,390 --> 00:11:55,470
I don't know who that would. 
I mean it, it would leave Naji 

226
00:11:55,470 --> 00:11:58,230
Harris as the guy on ABP. 
And I'm not gonna make a case 

227
00:11:58,230 --> 00:12:02,230
for Naji Harris, but yeah. 
But they could go receive a 

228
00:12:02,230 --> 00:12:05,670
receiver and we could still feel
OK, right? 

229
00:12:05,670 --> 00:12:07,950
I mean, yeah, we could, 
depending on who those receivers

230
00:12:07,950 --> 00:12:10,110
are. 
I we should definitely do a mini

231
00:12:10,110 --> 00:12:11,550
so for that one, because I 
don't. 

232
00:12:12,790 --> 00:12:14,430
I'm not as into Judy as you 
guys. 

233
00:12:14,430 --> 00:12:17,750
I think maybe I'm more open to 
Ridley than you are. 

234
00:12:18,910 --> 00:12:22,070
Cooper's a little bit gross. 
Well, based on our, based on our

235
00:12:22,070 --> 00:12:24,230
schedule, I get stuff guys, of 
the fact that we'll probably be 

236
00:12:24,230 --> 00:12:25,670
on the clock like an hour after 
this. 

237
00:12:25,670 --> 00:12:27,150
We need to have this 
conversation now. 

238
00:12:27,630 --> 00:12:29,350
OK, All right. 
OK. 

239
00:12:29,470 --> 00:12:32,110
Well, so to me I would take 
Ridley. 

240
00:12:32,310 --> 00:12:34,710
So wait, are we confirmed on 
Debo I? 

241
00:12:34,990 --> 00:12:39,030
I'm 100% Debo on this pic. 
We're all we all prefer Debo, I 

242
00:12:39,030 --> 00:12:40,110
think, right? 
Yeah. 

243
00:12:40,680 --> 00:12:43,360
Pat Even like. 
I like, no, I like Debo. 

244
00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:46,760
I just like Debo more like he's 
the guy I want. 

245
00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:51,600
Yeah, I don't know that we have 
enough cover to justify scooping

246
00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:53,760
DK. 
Like none of us can make that 

247
00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:55,840
compelling. 
I mean, DK is really good, but 

248
00:12:56,440 --> 00:12:58,720
target distribution, we don't 
expect them to be a ton of 

249
00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:01,840
passing attempts there. 
Yeah, I don't know. 

250
00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:03,400
Let's go. 
And we don't have the conviction

251
00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:07,020
when you think about how it 
plays out too would just how 

252
00:13:07,060 --> 00:13:11,660
many ways they use Debo as like 
a Swiss army knife that too like

253
00:13:11,860 --> 00:13:13,740
he's always going to be live for
that big game. 

254
00:13:13,740 --> 00:13:16,140
It was even during the FFPC 
playoff challenge we talked why 

255
00:13:16,140 --> 00:13:17,980
he was going to be such a 
popular pitch because people 

256
00:13:17,980 --> 00:13:20,500
felt good about him. 
The scenarios were DK Metcalf, 

257
00:13:20,540 --> 00:13:23,420
yes, he's always going to be 
live for a big two touchdown 

258
00:13:23,420 --> 00:13:25,020
game. 
Like he has that obviously in 

259
00:13:25,020 --> 00:13:27,660
his arsenal. 
But if JSN is bearing down on 

260
00:13:27,660 --> 00:13:31,940
him, how you feel about that in 
those clicks and putting them in

261
00:13:31,940 --> 00:13:33,900
your starting lineup toward the 
end of the season especially 

262
00:13:33,900 --> 00:13:37,660
could feel extremely you're 
starting to say like the outs 

263
00:13:37,660 --> 00:13:39,740
for Metcalf ceiling game. 
Yes, they're there, but they 

264
00:13:39,740 --> 00:13:42,740
keep getting smaller and smaller
where I feel like that ceiling 

265
00:13:42,740 --> 00:13:46,820
for Debo is going to exist based
on no matter what his teammates 

266
00:13:46,820 --> 00:13:48,780
do, essentially. 
I think that's really well put. 

267
00:13:49,060 --> 00:13:52,060
So if we take Debo here, then we
can talk through a little bit of

268
00:13:52,060 --> 00:13:55,260
contingency about what the turn 
does and where that leaves us. 

269
00:13:55,420 --> 00:13:56,900
What case were you going to 
make? 

270
00:13:58,300 --> 00:14:02,580
Well, I guess I probably good to
order the wide receivers going 

271
00:14:02,740 --> 00:14:06,340
forward because I do think we 
can talk about ETN and and a big

272
00:14:06,340 --> 00:14:08,780
tight end reach. 
But the tight end reach given 

273
00:14:08,780 --> 00:14:11,620
that they're kind of all down at
the far end of the board, it's 

274
00:14:11,620 --> 00:14:13,100
not like a three, four pick 
reach. 

275
00:14:13,100 --> 00:14:17,540
It's like a big old reach and 
we're going to have drafts down 

276
00:14:17,540 --> 00:14:21,380
there at that side of the board.
We're going to be doing some non

277
00:14:21,420 --> 00:14:23,780
tight end premium drafts too or 
we can maybe even scoop these 

278
00:14:23,780 --> 00:14:29,660
guys like a real value, so. 
My big case just on that with 

279
00:14:30,340 --> 00:14:33,180
this goes with the Debo over DK 
thing is that I think right now 

280
00:14:33,180 --> 00:14:36,180
we are at the start of a very 
flat tier and that people are 

281
00:14:36,180 --> 00:14:37,460
going. 
To make those reaches. 

282
00:14:38,420 --> 00:14:40,260
That's true. 
I all agree with super flat 

283
00:14:40,260 --> 00:14:43,300
through this for I agree Yeah 
yeah, real quick. 

284
00:14:43,300 --> 00:14:45,700
Should I put this Debo pick in 
and maybe? 

285
00:14:45,900 --> 00:14:48,300
There's a chance this guy snap 
picks and makes this a little 

286
00:14:48,300 --> 00:14:49,260
easier. 
Yeah. 

287
00:14:49,540 --> 00:14:50,500
Yeah. 
I'll put that in. 

288
00:14:51,380 --> 00:14:51,780
All right. 
Yeah. 

289
00:14:51,780 --> 00:14:55,980
So let's let's talk about it 
because I do think if if we 

290
00:14:55,980 --> 00:14:59,140
consider a reach to me it's for 
the tight ends, you know, I 

291
00:14:59,140 --> 00:15:01,580
think I'd feel much more 
comfortable with talking about 

292
00:15:01,580 --> 00:15:03,740
pits or kittle than I would even
ETN. 

293
00:15:03,980 --> 00:15:07,580
So to me, it's kind of like a 
tight end reach verse, our 

294
00:15:07,580 --> 00:15:09,860
favorite of this very flat wide 
receiver tier. 

295
00:15:10,060 --> 00:15:12,780
The biggest reason I want to 
think through it is what I 

296
00:15:12,780 --> 00:15:15,180
talked about on ship chasing 
last night and you guys have 

297
00:15:15,180 --> 00:15:16,940
really sold me on the first 
couple. 

298
00:15:17,540 --> 00:15:19,420
Like I think it was two years 
ago, first couple times we did 

299
00:15:19,420 --> 00:15:20,860
these drafts, even maybe last 
year. 

300
00:15:20,860 --> 00:15:23,260
I don't think I fully 
internalized as well. 

301
00:15:23,980 --> 00:15:26,700
What your guys's point was, you 
guys have played FFPC a couple 

302
00:15:26,700 --> 00:15:30,580
years longer than me about when 
you go without an anchor running

303
00:15:30,580 --> 00:15:33,820
back and without an anchor tight
end, how you really wind up 

304
00:15:34,700 --> 00:15:36,500
trying to hit both in the same 
round. 

305
00:15:36,780 --> 00:15:39,940
And it's it's it becomes really 
difficult to build structurally.

306
00:15:39,940 --> 00:15:42,140
It was tough for Pete. 
Even though you had an anchor 

307
00:15:42,140 --> 00:15:45,100
running back in an anchor tight 
end, it still kind of became 

308
00:15:45,100 --> 00:15:47,700
tough because you went a bunch 
of receivers in a row after that

309
00:15:47,700 --> 00:15:49,600
point. 
So I think we have to talk 

310
00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:50,880
through okay what? 
Do we do at 5, you're talking 

311
00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:53,840
Pete's Pros versus Joes that 
that was last night for us, not 

312
00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,920
for, not for the sorry. 
Yeah, not for people listening 

313
00:15:56,920 --> 00:16:00,280
for Pete's Pros versus Joes that
was on the stream or on the 

314
00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:03,560
YouTube channel. 
I think we could talk through a 

315
00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:05,680
little bit about if we did go 
wide receiver again, talk 

316
00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:08,080
through a little bit about what 
we might want to do at 5-6 cuz I

317
00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:12,400
think we might want to be 
running back there. 

318
00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:14,400
I mean, I think there's some 
potential options, some. 

319
00:16:14,820 --> 00:16:17,660
JK Dobbins, maybe even we were 
reaching on Javante Williams now

320
00:16:17,660 --> 00:16:20,100
that he hasn't started on PUP 
like is that something that 

321
00:16:20,180 --> 00:16:27,020
doesn't be open at the 5-6. 
So we we really like the seven 

322
00:16:27,020 --> 00:16:29,100
eight as well for potential 
receivers. 

323
00:16:29,100 --> 00:16:33,060
Although we talked a little bit 
about JSN on the first mini 

324
00:16:33,060 --> 00:16:37,820
Sewed just since then couple 
days I was talking to Sean a 

325
00:16:37,820 --> 00:16:40,300
little bit and in more recent 
ADP. 

326
00:16:41,210 --> 00:16:43,850
Sean was telling me something 
that they have on FFPC. 

327
00:16:43,850 --> 00:16:46,850
He's seen Jason at 704 and I was
like OK, he's probably not 

328
00:16:46,850 --> 00:16:49,210
making it back to the 711. 
We were towards the end of our 

329
00:16:49,210 --> 00:16:51,930
our first mini so conversation. 
He's skeptical that he would 

330
00:16:51,930 --> 00:16:54,610
fall back to us at 7:11. 
I don't think that's probably 

331
00:16:54,610 --> 00:16:58,210
likely, but that's still a 
decent receiver range at 7-8. 

332
00:16:58,610 --> 00:17:01,970
The question I'm I'm long 
windedly getting back to is if 

333
00:17:01,970 --> 00:17:04,089
we don't take a running back or 
a tight end here? 

334
00:17:05,260 --> 00:17:07,180
Are we going like what? 
What are we setting ourselves up

335
00:17:07,180 --> 00:17:10,300
45678 and then in that range 
where we would have to hit a lot

336
00:17:10,300 --> 00:17:12,780
of 0 RBS and tight end options 
in nine 10/11/12. 

337
00:17:14,020 --> 00:17:17,380
Yeah, you're definitely right. 
Like a guy like Dobbins will be 

338
00:17:17,380 --> 00:17:20,339
there most likely in the early 
six. 

339
00:17:21,140 --> 00:17:23,420
You know, looking. 
I know it's not the same format,

340
00:17:23,420 --> 00:17:26,700
but I'm just looking at. 
My Can you show the FFPC command

341
00:17:26,700 --> 00:17:27,619
center board? 
Yeah, yeah. 

342
00:17:27,660 --> 00:17:30,620
I can even show the OHH, this is
the grid here. 

343
00:17:30,620 --> 00:17:35,590
But if I slide over, we can even
see the the percentage chance 

344
00:17:35,590 --> 00:17:38,430
that these guys are available in
two picks here. 

345
00:17:40,350 --> 00:17:46,670
Let me see the full thing here. 
So you do start to see, yeah, 

346
00:17:46,670 --> 00:17:53,070
Dobbins, 31% chance, but this a 
DP might be a little anchored 

347
00:17:53,070 --> 00:17:55,750
before getting placed on POP, 
yeah. 

348
00:17:57,870 --> 00:17:59,550
He's probably more like 5050 
right now. 

349
00:18:00,530 --> 00:18:01,410
I do. 
I do. 

350
00:18:01,410 --> 00:18:04,090
Hear your point, Andre Swift is 
maybe an option. 

351
00:18:04,090 --> 00:18:06,810
We took A J. 
Brown Yeah. 

352
00:18:07,570 --> 00:18:12,010
I think just like how it plays 
out structurally. 

353
00:18:12,890 --> 00:18:16,610
I do, man. 
I do really think the tight end 

354
00:18:16,610 --> 00:18:23,770
this is is nice to have even as 
a reach, because my whole thing 

355
00:18:23,770 --> 00:18:26,370
is like you saw the wide 
receivers that I was cranking 

356
00:18:26,790 --> 00:18:34,310
last night and like even then is
Judy and you know Drake London 

357
00:18:34,310 --> 00:18:37,430
and those guys, are they that 
different from that caliber wide

358
00:18:37,430 --> 00:18:41,030
receiver that will just happily 
double tap at the 5-6 turn, 

359
00:18:41,310 --> 00:18:44,110
probably the 7-8? 
Are we already in a flat area of

360
00:18:44,110 --> 00:18:45,910
wide receiver? 
Where the the difference? 

361
00:18:46,890 --> 00:18:49,130
I think that's sort of what we 
were all saying with Debo is we 

362
00:18:49,130 --> 00:18:51,290
can all see scenarios like this 
is a guy that was an early 

363
00:18:51,290 --> 00:18:54,330
second round pick last year for 
a reason, had a tough year. 

364
00:19:09,570 --> 00:18:55,650
He's above it. 
But we can all see scenarios 

365
00:18:55,650 --> 00:18:59,410
where he's above the the rest of
these guys, but the rest of the 

366
00:18:59,410 --> 00:19:01,810
names at wide receiver on the 
board, you start to get into 

367
00:19:01,810 --> 00:19:04,410
this range and we can include 
Metcalf in this I think a little

368
00:19:04,410 --> 00:19:06,290
bit. 
Maybe he's above it, maybe 

369
00:19:06,290 --> 00:19:08,890
Ridley's above it. 
But it starts to get market 

370
00:19:08,890 --> 00:19:12,330
feels. 
I don't really, personally, but 

371
00:19:12,370 --> 00:19:14,720
I'm yeah, yeah. 
I'm kind of willing to be like, 

372
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:16,720
OK. 
All the way, all the way down to

373
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:18,560
Pete's point, to the guys. 
We could get a 5-6. 

374
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:21,120
Like a Chris Godwin maybe, or 
you know who like? 

375
00:19:21,120 --> 00:19:22,720
I think it's a it's a pretty 
flat group. 

376
00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:26,000
See all these guys? 
The percentage chance of over 50

377
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:29,520
at that next pick, Deonte 
Johnson, Christian Kirk, Mike 

378
00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:33,200
Williams, I you Tony's Dunzo. 
I do see a bit of a tear break. 

379
00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:36,720
I see my view on it is there's 
sort of a tear break after 

380
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:40,520
Higgins and that that that tier 
sort of ends. 

381
00:19:40,940 --> 00:19:43,500
Around Christian Kirk and 
Brandon and I Yuk or slightly 

382
00:19:43,500 --> 00:19:45,740
before that. 
And then maybe they kick off a 

383
00:19:45,740 --> 00:19:50,580
tier that then includes Godwin 
and Lockett and Marques Brown 

384
00:19:50,700 --> 00:19:54,420
and and Deontay Johnson. 
I'm not quite as high on on 

385
00:19:54,420 --> 00:19:57,660
Godwin as you guys, but I mean 
do like to me he's not in the 

386
00:19:57,660 --> 00:20:01,500
same tier as Drake London. 
Like Drake, London has, I think,

387
00:20:01,500 --> 00:20:04,900
quite a bit more upside. 
He's easily in the same tier to 

388
00:20:04,900 --> 00:20:07,180
me, so yeah, that's just a 
difference of opinion there. 

389
00:20:09,260 --> 00:20:11,700
But yeah, I think, I think we 
all agree though that we would 

390
00:20:11,700 --> 00:20:18,060
like a couple wide receivers 
there at that 5-6 turn. 

391
00:20:20,660 --> 00:20:23,420
Yeah. 
Although I guess I don't, I mean

392
00:20:23,420 --> 00:20:28,260
I would probably personally 
prefer the two V twos of you 

393
00:20:28,260 --> 00:20:37,060
know, like Ridley and Swift 
versus ETN and Godwin or 

394
00:20:37,060 --> 00:20:40,660
something like I think I. 
Probably, but what about tight 

395
00:20:40,660 --> 00:20:42,700
end? 
Are are you pretty out on tight 

396
00:20:42,700 --> 00:20:46,420
end here at 402 or no? 
That's what I I'm more I'm more 

397
00:20:46,420 --> 00:20:50,500
open to that because with the 
tight end premium you know all 

398
00:20:50,500 --> 00:20:55,340
the sudden pits starts to look 
like you know he's scoring like 

399
00:20:55,340 --> 00:20:57,340
these wide receivers. 
He gives us the positional 

400
00:20:57,340 --> 00:20:59,220
advantage. 
We can make up that wide 

401
00:20:59,220 --> 00:21:01,700
receiver scoring or even come 
close to make up the wide 

402
00:21:01,700 --> 00:21:05,620
receiver scoring. 
That's probably that's a win for

403
00:21:05,620 --> 00:21:09,810
us if if we hit on pits. 
I also feel like, again to the 

404
00:21:09,810 --> 00:21:12,210
point I was making earlier about
how you sold me on A J Brown. 

405
00:21:12,210 --> 00:21:14,730
I feel like our first three 
receivers do feel more like 

406
00:21:14,730 --> 00:21:17,610
triples than home runs. 
Pitts could be the home run. 

407
00:21:17,810 --> 00:21:19,450
You know what I mean? 
Like he feels like a home run 

408
00:21:19,450 --> 00:21:20,930
pick. 
It's it's a way above ADP. 

409
00:21:20,930 --> 00:21:24,730
But if he hits, he hits. 
I still firmly believe that Kyle

410
00:21:24,730 --> 00:21:26,850
Pitts has overall tied in one in
his range of outcomes. 

411
00:21:26,850 --> 00:21:29,010
That probably requires Travis 
Kelsey to fall off and miss a 

412
00:21:29,010 --> 00:21:32,050
little bit of time. 
But like I firmly believe he can

413
00:21:32,050 --> 00:21:35,750
outscore the rest of the 
position pretty you know in his 

414
00:21:35,750 --> 00:21:38,110
ceiling cases. 
Obviously Andrews is also very 

415
00:21:38,110 --> 00:21:38,950
good. 
We've been talking very 

416
00:21:38,990 --> 00:21:43,270
favorably about him on recent 
shows, but it it kind of 

417
00:21:43,270 --> 00:21:46,910
requires a down, a down season 
for those two, but I think pits 

418
00:21:46,910 --> 00:21:48,950
right behind them as far as 
ceiling cases. 

419
00:21:54,110 --> 00:21:58,510
Yeah, I mean, Pitts, he had a 
lot of really kind of hopeful 

420
00:21:58,510 --> 00:22:01,510
stuff in his profile. 
He he missed a lot of there was 

421
00:22:01,510 --> 00:22:03,890
like. 
High percentage of his deep 

422
00:22:03,890 --> 00:22:08,250
targets were uncatchable which 
has been that's something I'm 

423
00:22:08,570 --> 00:22:12,690
citing badly from various people
putting out on Twitter so I 

424
00:22:12,690 --> 00:22:16,810
don't remember the exact 
percentage but he had a really 

425
00:22:16,810 --> 00:22:22,010
high targets per route run 26 
1/2% that's that's awesome. 

426
00:22:22,490 --> 00:22:27,450
You know he is a deep threat. 
He had a 13.7 a dot last year. 

427
00:22:27,450 --> 00:22:30,810
I mean, that's high for a wide 
receiver, he. 

428
00:22:31,450 --> 00:22:36,850
Spent 34% of his snaps out wide 
as a rookie, 28% last year. 

429
00:22:37,290 --> 00:22:39,010
That's really high for a tight 
end. 

430
00:22:39,730 --> 00:22:43,530
I mean, he's still like he is 
who we thought he was. 

431
00:22:43,530 --> 00:22:46,130
You know he doesn't get open as 
easily as I was hoping it is 

432
00:22:46,130 --> 00:22:48,090
open scored and wasn't that 
great. 

433
00:22:48,090 --> 00:22:51,530
I think he might be more of like
a like AT Higginsy type wide 

434
00:22:51,530 --> 00:22:56,520
receiver separation might not be
like jumpsuit but like with 

435
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:59,080
athleticism and and we're 
getting tight end eligibility, 

436
00:22:59,080 --> 00:22:59,400
right? 
Yeah. 

437
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,040
I mean, if Pete Higgins had 
tight end eligibility and was on

438
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:04,240
the phone, I think we'd be 
pretty jumping over our head. 

439
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:09,600
Yeah, yeah, so the the stat per 
Fantasy points new data suite, 

440
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:15,200
which is pretty sweet, so shout 
to them. 64.9% catchable target 

441
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:19,000
rate for Kyle Pitts. 
Second lowest among 169 wide 

442
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,520
receivers and tight ends with 
150 plus routes. 

443
00:23:22,390 --> 00:23:25,550
So I mean that's like almost 200
of you know, 150 plus routes. 

444
00:23:25,550 --> 00:23:27,790
Not a huge number. 
Pits obviously didn't run a ton 

445
00:23:27,790 --> 00:23:29,510
of routes either. 
He had the second lowest 

446
00:23:29,510 --> 00:23:32,110
catchable target rate, like a 
full third of his targets were 

447
00:23:32,110 --> 00:23:34,310
uncatchable. 
That's part of why his 

448
00:23:34,310 --> 00:23:36,070
efficiency was down. 
Some of those things. 

449
00:23:37,350 --> 00:23:40,470
That's one of the stats and 
particularly deep targets as you

450
00:23:40,470 --> 00:23:43,750
mentioned, Pat, I think Ian, 
that's what he does. 

451
00:23:43,750 --> 00:23:47,110
It's it's not just to say like, 
oh you know, his deep targets, 

452
00:23:47,110 --> 00:23:49,350
like he is a deep threat. 
Essentially he's there. 

453
00:23:49,350 --> 00:23:51,660
He's their deep threat. 
Which is also makes him 

454
00:23:51,660 --> 00:23:54,340
interesting with Drake London as
his counterpart. 

455
00:23:54,340 --> 00:23:59,740
Because I'm very high on Drake 
London I think he like. 

456
00:24:00,020 --> 00:24:03,580
I just feel like I don't have to
choose, I can just make the bet 

457
00:24:03,580 --> 00:24:05,660
on both these guys. 
They both have awesome profiles,

458
00:24:06,420 --> 00:24:09,500
things can can move my direction
in terms of the regression with 

459
00:24:09,500 --> 00:24:10,500
the passing plays and 
everything. 

460
00:24:11,060 --> 00:24:15,020
But Drake London I think is more
of an intermediate type player. 

461
00:24:15,020 --> 00:24:18,500
He had 11.2, a dot. 
His profile was that he's going 

462
00:24:18,500 --> 00:24:21,140
to. 
Come in and be able to win with 

463
00:24:21,140 --> 00:24:23,700
precise route running as a 
bigger body player in the 

464
00:24:23,700 --> 00:24:26,420
intermediate area of the field. 
Like that was kind of his thing,

465
00:24:27,020 --> 00:24:31,060
like a sort of a possession 
player with a bit of pop. 

466
00:24:32,100 --> 00:24:34,940
I mean, that's like a perfect 
compliment for Kyle Pitts as a 

467
00:24:34,940 --> 00:24:37,580
deep threat. 
So anyway. 

468
00:24:38,300 --> 00:24:40,740
Two, just pulling out of the 
like the micro stuff on pits cuz

469
00:24:40,740 --> 00:24:43,300
you guys don't have to sell me 
on him at all. 

470
00:24:43,300 --> 00:24:46,460
There like some of those 
listeners. 

471
00:24:47,340 --> 00:24:51,660
One on just last night, the way 
my pros vs Joes went in like. 

472
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:55,040
At first I was a little hesitant
to do the like Andrews thing and

473
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:58,080
then the way the board came into
where I was even like praying 

474
00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:00,720
for Dolcech to get to me as like
a second tight end. 

475
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,760
Like you realize like you really
start to sweat some bullets. 

476
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,360
As much as we like the late 
tight ends this year, like 

477
00:25:06,360 --> 00:25:08,080
getting even the guys that have 
some upside. 

478
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,240
Like I had my eye on La Porter 
and he flew off the board a 

479
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:12,400
little earlier. 
Like tight end drafters start to

480
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:14,920
get itchy fingers there. 
And it is. 

481
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:16,980
We get another. 
Yeah, it did. 

482
00:25:17,180 --> 00:25:18,940
It did. 
If we get another value though, 

483
00:25:18,940 --> 00:25:21,500
we could just take a second 
tight end as well at any time. 

484
00:25:21,540 --> 00:25:24,300
That's never precluded from 
doing too tight. 

485
00:25:24,300 --> 00:25:27,980
Will you pull up the percentages
at tight end on you have the we 

486
00:25:28,020 --> 00:25:29,460
isolate tight end real quick 
before. 

487
00:25:29,460 --> 00:25:31,820
I know we gotta out here pretty 
quick, but. 

488
00:25:32,620 --> 00:25:35,060
Pitch isn't gonna Yeah, you 
have. 

489
00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:39,920
Sub 10% for all the next four or
I guess got her to 11 but Kittle

490
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:45,560
1% hit 7% chance Waller 6% got 
her 11% and then we would be 

491
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:51,080
looking then at like Friarmuth. 
It's more one that you wait for 

492
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:54,200
7-8 on, but if he doesn't make 
it back to you at 7-8 then 

493
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:58,110
you're like now we're I mean 
what are we taking in Jokeu? 

494
00:25:58,110 --> 00:26:00,270
Maybe he's already gone in the 
7th as well, The fact that we 

495
00:26:00,270 --> 00:26:02,590
have the long wait until that 
7th, because we wouldn't take 

496
00:26:02,590 --> 00:26:04,870
for him with that 5-6. 
I think his eighty piece right 

497
00:26:04,870 --> 00:26:07,590
around 7-8. 
Right, exactly. 

498
00:26:07,590 --> 00:26:11,910
This is right before we pick. 
Is the so we would be reaching 

499
00:26:11,990 --> 00:26:15,230
at the 5-6 if we wanted to do 
tight end or more practically 

500
00:26:15,230 --> 00:26:18,230
getting our anchor running back 
at the 5-6 if we don't go tight 

501
00:26:18,230 --> 00:26:22,510
end here. 
And at which point, I mean we're

502
00:26:22,510 --> 00:26:25,270
still, we're probably still 
gonna want to take multiple 

503
00:26:25,270 --> 00:26:28,510
tight end shots in the rounds 10
to 14 range and also still 

504
00:26:28,510 --> 00:26:30,630
needing to build out running 
back depth in the round 10 to 14

505
00:26:30,750 --> 00:26:34,630
range, you know? 
I will say, I think I'm still 

506
00:26:34,630 --> 00:26:38,310
Metcalf over pits. 
If we just get that if we get 

507
00:26:38,310 --> 00:26:41,590
that value I mean. 
I I'm at peace with that. 

508
00:26:41,590 --> 00:26:43,230
That was kind of, I'm OK with 
that, the room. 

509
00:26:43,230 --> 00:26:48,350
Gifts US42-D K Metcalf which is 
gonna be pretty abnormal I'm I'm

510
00:26:48,350 --> 00:26:53,220
willing to take that but then. 
If Metcalf isn't there, like I 

511
00:26:53,220 --> 00:26:54,620
think, I just. 
Wanted to Let's just take this. 

512
00:26:54,700 --> 00:26:56,420
Let's just take this for the 
structural reasons. 

513
00:26:56,460 --> 00:26:59,620
It's a huge reach, but for the 
structural reasons it means we 

514
00:26:59,620 --> 00:27:03,060
can avoid tight end if no other 
values come and hit the running 

515
00:27:03,060 --> 00:27:05,780
backs that we need to hit as we 
start to build this sort of 0 RB

516
00:27:05,780 --> 00:27:08,980
build and the receivers right. 
Yeah, cuz we don't have really 

517
00:27:08,980 --> 00:27:10,620
quarterback either, so it's just
helpful. 

518
00:27:11,490 --> 00:27:15,330
It's it's not only are I think 
the other times when we got in 

519
00:27:15,330 --> 00:27:19,370
trouble with chasing players up 
the draft board or whatever, it 

520
00:27:19,370 --> 00:27:22,450
was because we were often 
passing on better players at 

521
00:27:22,450 --> 00:27:25,050
other positions just for the 
structural concern. 

522
00:27:25,210 --> 00:27:28,010
But if we have both the 
structural concern and we think 

523
00:27:28,010 --> 00:27:32,330
this is a very flat tier at wide
receiver and that these tight 

524
00:27:32,330 --> 00:27:35,610
ends totally belong in a tight 
end premium format alongside 

525
00:27:35,610 --> 00:27:39,610
them, I'm fine dancing around a 
tier for structural purposes. 

526
00:27:40,290 --> 00:27:44,850
I mean Pitts in non PP, non 
tight end premium, I'm looking 

527
00:27:44,850 --> 00:27:48,210
at my projections right now. 
He's like 30 points behind these

528
00:27:48,210 --> 00:27:51,210
guys in tight end premium. 
I have that number. 

529
00:27:51,210 --> 00:27:54,410
Kyle Pitts, I have projected for
basically the same numbers. 

530
00:27:54,410 --> 00:27:56,650
I mean my projections, 
projections are what they are, 

531
00:27:56,930 --> 00:27:59,330
but basically the same number as
Calvin Ridley, basically the 

532
00:27:59,330 --> 00:28:01,770
same number as DK Metcalf. 
They actually have them a little

533
00:28:01,770 --> 00:28:04,810
bit ahead of those two guys, 
very slightly like five points 

534
00:28:04,810 --> 00:28:06,820
ahead of those two being tight 
in premium. 

535
00:28:07,180 --> 00:28:08,740
Now my projection on pets is 
bullish. 

536
00:28:08,740 --> 00:28:13,300
Obviously I'm a pits bull. 
Shocking, Shocking. 

537
00:28:14,220 --> 00:28:16,580
He has a 45% target share in my 
projections. 

538
00:28:16,580 --> 00:28:18,380
But you know. 
Yeah. 

539
00:28:19,500 --> 00:28:21,220
No, I actually have London for 
more targets. 

540
00:28:21,220 --> 00:28:25,540
So it's not like it's not, it's 
not that crazy bullish, it's, it

541
00:28:25,540 --> 00:28:29,020
is bullish, but because I have 
those two concentrated, I wrote 

542
00:28:29,020 --> 00:28:30,700
a little bit about the RPO 
stuff. 

543
00:28:30,700 --> 00:28:33,100
You're not that bullish on, I 
mean I would. 

544
00:28:33,590 --> 00:28:35,470
Expect that you don't have a ton
of passing attempts for the 

545
00:28:35,470 --> 00:28:38,230
Falcons, right? 
No, no, I pits at 118 targets, 

546
00:28:38,590 --> 00:28:39,470
let's put it that way. 
OK, OK. 

547
00:28:40,350 --> 00:28:42,430
I mean it's not like in in tight
end premium. 

548
00:28:42,430 --> 00:28:45,270
And then I just have his his 
efficiency regress sum a high a 

549
00:28:45,270 --> 00:28:47,830
dot right with the highest a dot
of any tight end that I 

550
00:28:47,830 --> 00:28:49,910
projected. 
And so then his yards per target

551
00:28:49,910 --> 00:28:52,670
is naturally even though I he's 
not even close to the highest 

552
00:28:52,670 --> 00:28:54,550
yards per target I projected for
a tight end. 

553
00:28:54,790 --> 00:28:57,270
But the high a dot pulls the 
yards per target up if he hits 

554
00:28:57,270 --> 00:28:59,350
on some of those deep balls. 
And so I mean, I think it's a 

555
00:28:59,350 --> 00:29:03,460
very defensible projection is 
what I'm getting at 1. 18 

556
00:29:03,500 --> 00:29:05,220
targets is a rookie. 
I think that's incredibly 

557
00:29:05,300 --> 00:29:07,380
fensible. 
It's very defensible and 

558
00:29:07,660 --> 00:29:11,820
relative to my my Ridley, DK in 
this range of receivers, Jerry, 

559
00:29:11,820 --> 00:29:13,860
Judy, all these guys are right 
in that range in my wide 

560
00:29:13,860 --> 00:29:16,060
receiver projections. 
Like I think there's a really 

561
00:29:16,060 --> 00:29:20,700
decent case to be made that pits
in tight and premium projects, 

562
00:29:21,220 --> 00:29:23,660
you know, to the point of it 
being a flat tier projects the 

563
00:29:23,660 --> 00:29:25,780
same as these guys. 
Then he adds A structural 

564
00:29:25,780 --> 00:29:27,500
advantage because he feels tight
end, right? 

565
00:29:28,460 --> 00:29:31,980
Yeah. 
Alright guys, I have to run. 

566
00:29:31,980 --> 00:29:36,700
Obviously we are going to huddle
personally before we submit this

567
00:29:36,700 --> 00:29:39,180
next pick, but I'm guessing next
time you hear from us will be 

568
00:29:39,180 --> 00:29:42,420
when we're on the clock or close
to at 511. 

569
00:29:42,580 --> 00:29:46,180
Seems like we are very much on 
board with DK Metcalf and Kyle 

570
00:29:46,180 --> 00:29:47,660
Pitts. 
I guess this person double 

571
00:29:47,660 --> 00:29:49,820
tapping Metcalf and Kyle Pitts 
with that would be. 

572
00:29:50,060 --> 00:29:53,580
That would be a meltdown. 
Well done 12. 

573
00:29:56,510 --> 00:29:59,390
If you're listening to the audio
version of these, we do make the

574
00:29:59,390 --> 00:30:01,750
video versions with the draft 
boards in the road of his 

575
00:30:01,750 --> 00:30:04,550
Command center that we're 
looking at available, as well as

576
00:30:04,550 --> 00:30:08,030
our pretty faces available to 
YouTube members there. 

577
00:30:08,230 --> 00:30:12,750
Otherwise, appreciate you guys 
falling along in our FFPC Mini 

578
00:30:12,750 --> 00:30:14,430
Store series. 
We'll see you guys next time at 

579
00:30:14,430 --> 00:30:15,510
the 5-6 turn.
