1 00:00:02,000 --> 00:00:06,480 We are almost halfway through the NFL season with week eight 2 00:00:06,480 --> 00:00:11,400 in the books and 0 RB Bros celebrated as some of their 3 00:00:11,400 --> 00:00:14,800 favorite players like Tyrone Tracy and Ladd Mcconkey 4 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:20,080 skyrocketed their advance rates from 3% to 5%. 5 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:30,240 This is Pat Fryer, Helmo. This is Anita Handjob. 6 00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:31,800 Fix your sight. Jamar. 7 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:38,200 And alpha play chase, you can't handle the heat. 8 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:40,240 It looks like we're finally at this point, You're right. 9 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:52,360 Apparently the the Tyrone Tracy skyrocketing your advance rates 10 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:54,800 all the way up to 5% hit a little too close to home for 11 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:56,240 you, Draco. You cut me off there. 12 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:00,520 Yeah, I'm sorry about that. What happened was I, I realized 13 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:08,840 that and I actually posted the the week 8 and one in in the 14 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:17,200 discord as well. And so I I guess I need to I 15 00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:21,560 need I need to ping to get the the week 9. 16 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:24,400 Gotcha. Well, we can we can vamp a bit 17 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:27,120 while you send out the bat signal to let the people know 18 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:30,040 that we're live. But it was it was a fun week 8. 19 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:35,040 We definitely had some some pretty fun performances. 20 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:38,720 The Lad Mcconkey breakout was certainly really cool to see. 21 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:42,200 I mean, the the last couple weeks the Chargers have seen 22 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:46,360 like functional passing the ball, you know, despite not 23 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:49,120 wanting to. So that's that's at least a 24 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:50,880 little encouraging for the LAD shares. 25 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:56,520 Yeah. And so I think what was posted 26 00:01:56,520 --> 00:02:02,400 on Twitter as well, OK, what was posted on Twitter is OK, now I 27 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:10,000 have the right signal and OK, that's the right one. 28 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:17,240 This is excellent. It's a week 8. 29 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:20,520 It's a it's a week 8 when we did as well. 30 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:27,320 So now I think only now people are getting the link. 31 00:02:28,640 --> 00:02:31,920 Well, they'll they'll have to join us a couple minutes behind. 32 00:02:31,920 --> 00:02:34,680 They missed some of this spectacular content that we've 33 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:40,800 already delivered tonight. Me panicking of like oh shit. 34 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:44,200 I think we can go ahead and jump into the charts tonight though. 35 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:51,120 We don't need a dilly dally. Sorry I was put. 36 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:54,280 I wanted to post a right link on on Twitter as well. 37 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:59,440 Gotcha. So we've got a yeah, sorry about 38 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:02,120 the delay folks. And maybe we can kind of like 39 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:07,440 cut that off in in the audio, but we've got the QB volume and 40 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:09,600 efficiency and rushing chart here. 41 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:15,640 So we have expected points on the horizontal axis, which is 42 00:03:15,640 --> 00:03:19,960 the represent that's kind of like the the volume from passing 43 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:23,320 adjusted yards per 10th on the vertical, which is efficiency. 44 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,520 And then the size of the bubble corresponds to rushing yardage. 45 00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:30,840 And then I guess the the one thing that jumps out to me 46 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:34,840 straight away here is just a pure volume for Baker Mayfield. 47 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:40,480 And I think some of that is driven by kind of an outlier 48 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:44,560 game against the Eagles where they had this 15% pass rate over 49 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:49,480 expected, but it's they still had some pretty solid games 50 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:52,000 other than that over expected as well. 51 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:56,480 And even with the injuries that are two to their two top 52 00:03:56,480 --> 00:04:01,320 receivers this week, they still had 50 drop backs, 50 drop backs 53 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:04,480 with no receivers. So I think that's pretty 54 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:08,200 interesting that they still were very much willing to operate the 55 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:09,320 offense. True. 56 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:11,800 Baker Mayfield. I think they kind of had to 57 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:16,040 because they they, they actually did have to throw a lot against 58 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:20,240 the Falcons who had the lead. But I, I still think that that's 59 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:23,200 pretty encouraging for their, their kind of belief in Baker 60 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:25,840 Mayfield and for that volume and, and the overall passing 61 00:04:25,840 --> 00:04:28,800 attack. Yeah, it definitely seems like 62 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:33,680 Baker Mayfield is the straw that stirs the drink in this offense, 63 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:37,640 which is a a little surprising given you know how good Mike 64 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:41,120 Evans and Chris Godwin are. But it it definitely looks like 65 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:44,920 they're confident in Baker and it seems like the the passing 66 00:04:44,920 --> 00:04:47,200 volume is not a mirage. It's something that we can 67 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:49,960 expect to sustain throughout the season. 68 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:55,360 I I believe that right now in I, I correct me if I'm wrong, is 69 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:57,680 Baker the quarterback 2 on the season? 70 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:06,120 And I I don't know and but that would not that I would not 71 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:11,520 surprise me like he has put up a lot of AM I can tell you exactly 72 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:14,480 in in in just a second, I can tell you exactly how many points 73 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:20,720 he scored. But I'm not AM I'm not sure if 74 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:24,160 he's the QB 2 or not so. Yeah. 75 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:28,320 So we we've got. He scored 24 points a game, 76 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:33,360 which is pretty good. That is pretty good at fantasy 77 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:36,800 production. Now he's he's running pretty hot 78 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:40,560 on touchdowns. We did, we got, we got 79 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:43,960 confirmation from from producer Mark here and that he is 80 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:45,840 quarterback too. So great, Great call. 81 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:48,920 Yeah, he's running pretty hot on time, Mark. 82 00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:53,120 But I mean, at this point, just, you know, as far as like 83 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:56,160 counting stats by the end of the year, it's going to be pretty 84 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:59,200 hard for Baker Mayfield to not finish the top five to see 85 00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:01,320 quarterback. You know, that's that's not to 86 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:03,480 say that his points per game over the second-half of the 87 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:05,840 season is going to sustain that high. 88 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:10,240 But if you made me bet on it, gosh, top five for the rest of 89 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:12,560 the season in points per game, not counting what he's already 90 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:15,040 done, it's probably going to be pretty hard. 91 00:06:16,280 --> 00:06:19,240 But I mean, I'm, I'm fully I'm drinking the Baker kool-aid man. 92 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:22,440 I I think he's proven himself to be a really solid NFL 93 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,160 quarterback. Yeah, yeah. 94 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:29,880 And and so he had a like a six six and it was 50 attempts, not 95 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:33,400 50 drop backs. And he had six adjusted yards 96 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:38,920 per attempt on like a 7.8 A dot. So like not the best efficiency, 97 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:43,560 but on A50 attempt game where you're chasing the game, that's 98 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:47,240 like that's pretty solid. That is pretty solid. 99 00:06:47,840 --> 00:06:51,480 You do to the Sterling Shepherd, you know, and and Jalen McGill 100 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:54,480 not to not to so. If they're, if they're to get, 101 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:58,880 if they're to get Mike Evans back at some point, then it it's 102 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:00,880 pretty strongly wheels up for Mike Evans. 103 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:04,240 Yeah, it does sound like it's probably post week 11 for Mike 104 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:07,560 Evans from from what I've seen. But obviously that can develop 105 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:10,720 here over the next couple weeks. Maybe he comes back a little 106 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:18,080 earlier, but regardless. Speaking of guys who have had 107 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:22,920 high volume in the past. So I, I see that Josh Allen, I'm 108 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:27,200 not sure I, I don't want to get in specific contests, but I see 109 00:07:27,200 --> 00:07:33,320 that Josh Allen is, is remains the quarterback won by ADP on 110 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:37,440 underdog. And I know we'd kind of noted 111 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:41,480 that in week seven, they had a 10% pass rate over expected 112 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:44,760 following the Ameritrade. And we're like, well, is that 113 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:48,480 because of intent or is that because of injuries to their 114 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:50,720 running backs? And so they actually they came 115 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:54,320 back down to a 0%. So neutral pass rate over 116 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:59,560 expected in in week 8. So to me that kind of suggests 117 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,200 that maybe we kind of saw a one time blip there. 118 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:05,560 It's it's not as negative as it was before. 119 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:10,720 I know that let me see. So they posted a couple of big 120 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:14,840 negative games. So maybe maybe they're not going 121 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:17,200 to be as run heavy as they were before. 122 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:23,640 And but I guess it's probably if, if, if it's, it's probably 123 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:26,960 somewhere between slightly negative to slightly above 124 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:32,000 positive pressure over expected. So I'll have to say, I think 125 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:34,919 we've gotten a little bit more evidence that this kind of like 126 00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:41,880 50 drop back game is 50 drop backs per game or 40 drop backs 127 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:44,200 per game is not on the table for Josh. 128 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:51,520 Yeah, I, I would say that for this match up coming up this 129 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:56,080 week, they've got the Dolphins and the Bills prior to that one 130 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:58,640 blip on the radar where they they actually passed above 131 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:01,320 expected. They were very run heavy. 132 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:03,800 You know, they, they really tried to keep the ball on the 133 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:11,000 ground, not not running a ton of plays, but Miami's a run funnel. 134 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:14,720 And so I expect them to probably stick to what they've shown us 135 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:17,880 the most rather than that one blip for the first week that 136 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:20,840 they had Amari Cooper. Now there, there's a lot to 137 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:23,800 parse here because Miami was a run funnel. 138 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:27,120 I I think in part because they couldn't score any points. 139 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:29,080 And so teams were happy to just run on them. 140 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:33,520 You know, when Tua wasn't in, the Dolphins were not a threat 141 00:09:33,560 --> 00:09:35,480 on offense. And so you could just run the 142 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:40,280 ball and get out of the game quickly with an easy win as long 143 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:42,240 as you just ran on Miami. You know, their their run 144 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:45,720 defense wasn't terribly imposing and you weren't really compelled 145 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:48,240 to pass against them because they weren't scoring any points. 146 00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:54,240 So I would expect the Bills to be a little leaning towards run 147 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:56,680 heavy as a tendency this week. Right. 148 00:09:57,520 --> 00:09:59,600 That's been pretty consistent across opponents. 149 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:04,960 Only one Dolphins opponent this year has had a positive and pass 150 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:10,200 rate over expected. And I, I guess it's, it's not 151 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:15,760 like even the Jaguars were -7 last last week, week eight, they 152 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:22,360 saw a -, 2%. So I, I, I know they it there's 153 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:25,000 you don't have this huge sample size with two of playing, but 154 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:27,800 it's it still feels like they're a bit of a run funnel there. 155 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:31,320 Yeah, I I certainly think that the most likely thing is the 156 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:33,920 dolphins are a run funnel and the most likely thing is the 157 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:37,360 bills want to run the ball. So it definitely makes me lean 158 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:40,120 towards thinking that that the bills will have lower pass 159 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:43,280 volume in this game. However, you do have the the 160 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:47,640 wild card factor of the Dolphins with Tua can go out and they 161 00:10:47,680 --> 00:10:50,800 they can hang 50 on you in the blink of an eye with the Tyree 162 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:54,160 killer Devana Chan explosive play, apparently not a Jalen 163 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:56,720 Lotto explosive play. Those just don't exist anymore. 164 00:10:57,080 --> 00:11:00,200 Although it would be a really fun week for Jalen Waddle to 165 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:04,960 just explode and show us that yes, he is a very viable third 166 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:08,560 threat on that offense. So I think you're out. 167 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:11,200 To the Bills, if you're. So if you're playing the Bills, 168 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:12,760 you have to play through the Dolphins. 169 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:15,240 Yeah, if you're playing the Bills, if you're playing Josh 170 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:18,480 Allen specifically because his price is is pretty high. 171 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:22,560 But if you're playing Josh Allen specifically, I really, really 172 00:11:22,560 --> 00:11:26,520 want to have one of the Dolphins explosive playmakers on my team 173 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:33,560 to try and push the pace. Yeah, that, that, that makes 174 00:11:33,560 --> 00:11:38,000 sense for sure. And I guess just just given what 175 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:43,920 you've laid out, laid out there, I, I, I do think that Josh Allen 176 00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:46,920 picked 12.4. Now this is I think this is for 177 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:53,000 mainly on 6 AM 16 drafts and then Chua took about a low at 178 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:56,920 35.6. And then if you need Tua to go 179 00:11:56,920 --> 00:12:02,920 off to unlock the bills, that that would push me to like 180 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:07,200 actually preparing Tua this week over over Josh Allen. 181 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:09,600 Yeah, Tua is free. You can get him in the last 182 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:12,040 round. I actually built something that 183 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:15,840 gives me the ADP in the dog bowl draft specifically. 184 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:19,520 And so I've got the Josh Allen ADP here. 185 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:24,760 He's averaging pick 14.3 in the dog bowls. 186 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:29,080 He's gone as late as pick 22 and as early as pick 8. 187 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:32,400 And by the way, the person who got him at pick 22 is yours 188 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:35,920 truly. So I'm willing to take him if he 189 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:38,920 goes all the way to pick 22. That's that's certainly fine. 190 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:43,440 And then just very happy to, to play it as I, I've played this 191 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:47,040 game as an onslaught quite, quite often here because I think 192 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:49,720 there's a chance that this ends up being one of those really fun 193 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:52,400 games where, you know, you get 80 points or something silly 194 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:57,920 like that. So if I was to, but if I was to 195 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:04,400 and I think Chua is like a smart contrarian play and because it's 196 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:07,600 not as it's not as popular as it should be based on what you 197 00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:11,760 would have taught going into this season and based on results 198 00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:17,200 last year, it does look like they're their online hasn't been 199 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:22,040 good like I see. Yeah, Chua, not sure how many 200 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:28,760 drop backs he's had, but you had just 2.28 time to throw a six 201 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:35,280 point 4A dot. And I, I I guess like not not 202 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:42,080 great efficiency. So I, I guess I want to put some 203 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:45,040 credence into the negative results this year that the magic 204 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:51,280 hasn't been there, but with the way that you can play as 205 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:54,520 contrarian as you can, it makes sense to do. 206 00:13:55,320 --> 00:13:56,920 Yeah. And it's it's pretty small 207 00:13:56,920 --> 00:13:58,760 sample that we have for two so far. 208 00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:05,160 And I also think a big part of the A dot is is coming from it 209 00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:09,000 is coming from the Devana Chan schemed touches here where 210 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:12,000 they're, you know, doing these very short behind the line of 211 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:15,800 scrimmage targets for him. So I think that's probably 212 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:17,880 depressing some of the A dot work. 213 00:14:18,680 --> 00:14:23,640 But it's still 6.4, right Like that, that's, that's really low. 214 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:27,640 That's one of the lowest of an of any quarterbacks this year. 215 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:30,040 Well, they, you know, the Dolphins are a pretty run heavy 216 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:31,560 team. They're not getting a ton of 217 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:34,280 pass attempts and a chance getting an enormous amount of 218 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:36,000 targets. If you look at how many targets 219 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:38,840 he's actually in the games that Tua has played, I think it's 220 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:41,920 what 7 targets, 8 targets and eight targets or something like 221 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:45,120 that. So like a, a large percentage of 222 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:49,480 the offense or the past attempts are going for zero to negative A 223 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:52,560 dot. So if you, if you remove that, 224 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:55,080 it definitely boosts the A dot up a little bit. 225 00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:58,440 And also I, I, I don't really think that those are necessarily 226 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:01,760 a bad thing for Tua's production or efficiency either 'cause I 227 00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:04,840 think any of those targets can end up being house calls. 228 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:08,760 So I'm I'm really interested in I I think the whole Dolphins 229 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:11,960 offense is a buy low. I'm pretty sure they're still 230 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:13,880 priced down on DraftKings as well. 231 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:18,520 I believe that Tyreek is still like in the low 7 thousands this 232 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:22,120 week and he's just not he's not a. 233 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:26,880 Right, I know that he's he's a pick 14 on on underdog. 234 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:31,920 And if you had a told somebody that Tyreek Hill would be pick 235 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:37,400 14 and and and and weekly like they, they wouldn't have 236 00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:39,800 believed you. Well Tyree Ty, I think his ADP 237 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:43,160 is something like 8 but his his average ADP in the dog bowls is 238 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:45,360 6 1/2. His ADP is going to be screaming 239 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:47,040 up and by the OH. Oh, yeah, you're right. 240 00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:48,720 You're right. I misquoted that, that that's, 241 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:50,120 that's his projection in the app. 242 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:52,440 But his ADP is 8. You're right, you're right. 243 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:56,840 Yeah, now a Chan had an ADP early in the week of say, 20 244 00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,360 something. He's never gone that late in a 245 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:02,480 dog bowl. He's got an average of just 246 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:06,960 under pick 14 and the latest he's ever gone is pick 19. 247 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:12,040 But yeah, I, I think you, you want to be attacking this 248 00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:16,720 Dolphins offense before they give you the big explosion, 249 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:19,480 explosion game like we know they're capable of. 250 00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:22,800 And I I like the spot for it because the Bills certainly can 251 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:26,480 push them. And I think the Bills can can 252 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:29,000 fight back if the Dolphins do happen and get out to an early 253 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:29,640 lead. So. 254 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:33,520 And then I guess if, if I'm, if I'm arguing against myself, 255 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:41,920 their, their PFF online grade is 16th overall and the the pass 256 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:46,760 block win rate and for ESPN is is 10th overall. 257 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:53,480 So maybe the online has actually played better than him than some 258 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:58,160 of those numbers would suggest. And they are actually, they are, 259 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:00,920 they are actually fully capable of still pushing the ball down 260 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:04,760 the field. And it's definitely you're, 261 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:08,280 you're, you're not having to pay Dolphins prices right now. 262 00:17:09,079 --> 00:17:11,079 No. And I mean, even even last year, 263 00:17:11,079 --> 00:17:14,240 Tua had a really low time to throw even when pushing the ball 264 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:16,880 down the field. They're just they that's that's 265 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:19,920 what happens when you have like the fastest player in the NFL 266 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:22,040 running routes. You can actually still target 267 00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:25,920 him down the field. Just it, it was low, but 2.3 is 268 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:32,800 exceptional. And yeah, I'm I'm going to look 269 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:36,360 that up and look up what what his was last year. 270 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:42,600 And, but I guess the the other and the other one that I kind of 271 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:47,320 like that caught my eye was Matthew Stafford here where a 272 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:54,000 lot of his, his efficiency has been kind of per this year over 273 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:56,000 the full year. But that's been missing Pooka, 274 00:17:56,000 --> 00:18:00,760 that's been missing Cooper Cook. But then they also when you look 275 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:05,640 at last week, week eight, they tore the kind of like heralded 276 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:09,800 at Minnesota Vikings defence. And so if they're able to do 277 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:14,400 that because Puke is back, because Cooper Cup is back, then 278 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:19,960 there's the Seattle defence is is a pretty enticing matchup 279 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:23,720 too, I would think. Yeah, I, I really like this game 280 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,880 in general. I think pretty much all of the 281 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:29,520 pieces in this game are underpriced right now. 282 00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:34,400 On Underdog, Puka has an ADP like near the end of the first 283 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:36,680 round. I would say Puka's probably 284 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,120 should be going in like the top six, top seven. 285 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:43,520 And then you get Kenneth Walker. He's like, you know, some 286 00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:45,720 ridiculous ADP. He's been screaming up though 287 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:49,400 too, but he was, he was going middle of the second round and 288 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,200 dog bowls. He's he's coming up a lot and 289 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:55,800 Stafford is entirely free now. It's not a state secret. 290 00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:58,280 I've actually seen a decent number of people drafting 291 00:18:58,280 --> 00:18:59,760 Stafford this week. Right. 292 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:04,240 It's so hard for me to believe that that's like a like a, a, a 293 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:07,560 thing that nobody else will see. Yeah, now I'm pretty sure that 294 00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:11,640 when projections come out still, he's he's probably gonna barely 295 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:16,480 be on the on the threshold of like a top 12 QB this week just 296 00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:19,240 because he's a pocket passer. You know, the the game does have 297 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:24,160 a pretty good total, but I I think people might be a little 298 00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:25,120 gung ho for him. Now. 299 00:19:25,360 --> 00:19:28,480 It's not translating into like an untenable ADP or anything 300 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:30,040 like that. He's available in the last round 301 00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:32,640 every time. It's just you're not going to 302 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:36,320 sneak by like a an undrafted or very low owned Matt Stafford 303 00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:38,800 like you, you would have been able to in previous weeks. 304 00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:42,040 But I I've seen lots of right that's still. 305 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:46,560 Kind of a smashed price where it it like this is a pretty strong 306 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:52,000 set up for Matt Seiford for like a pretty good pocket passer and 307 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:57,600 and definitely relative to the prices of other guys it it seems 308 00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:00,920 pretty enticing. Yeah, let me let me take a look 309 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:03,040 at where he's been. And. 310 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:05,800 And and what while you're looking that up and you're 311 00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:08,800 right. So last year choose average time 312 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:14,040 to throw was 2.25. So it's his is, is time to throw 313 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:16,440 here is actually pretty good point that it's pretty 314 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:18,800 characteristic of it was last year. 315 00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:23,440 It's within .03 seconds of last year. 316 00:20:24,120 --> 00:20:27,280 And so yeah, you're, you're right this like that. 317 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:30,680 That's not a yeah, that's definitely not a reason to shy 318 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:34,640 away at all. So yeah, Matt, Matt Stafford 319 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,840 goes pretty late. He he's got an average price of 320 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:42,280 going in the last round. Couple guys that go like right 321 00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:46,640 before him on average. Caleb Williams, who I, I 322 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:49,240 probably prefer Stafford to Williams this week. 323 00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:56,120 You've got, let's see here, Bo Nix has gone before him on 324 00:20:56,120 --> 00:21:01,200 average DAC, DAC is, is. That's actually an interesting 325 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:02,440 one. What do you think about DAC 326 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:08,600 versus Stafford straight out? I mean, I think you have to, I, 327 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,920 I think Stafford is a much better position. 328 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:15,640 Like, I don't, I don't think, I, I don't think I put too much 329 00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:18,840 between like if I, if somebody put a gun to my head and said 330 00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:22,800 who's the better quarterback, it would be hard for me to decide. 331 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:27,040 And then I think it's a much better set up for Stafford than 332 00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:31,080 Dundac, where they actually have multiple talented players on the 333 00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,080 offense. Yeah, I think, I mean you're, 334 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:35,920 you're definitely right in that regard. 335 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:40,120 I do think the game total is, I want to say it's like 3 points 336 00:21:40,120 --> 00:21:43,720 higher for for Dallas. Let me let me pull it up here. 337 00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:49,080 But I do know both of these are are two of the better game 338 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:52,920 totals on the week. But let's see, we've got 4. 339 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:57,440 Dallas, the game total is up at 53. 340 00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:00,360 So that is actually the highest total on the week. 341 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:04,960 And then for the Rams and Seahawks, it's at 48 1/2. 342 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:08,920 That one's basically a pick. You know, just one, one point 343 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:11,880 there. Cowboys and Falcons also pretty 344 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:14,000 close spread, only two point spread there. 345 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:18,560 So both these games should be competitive according to the 346 00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:20,880 lines and they should have lots of points. 347 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:25,920 But I think in general there I'm I'm just going to default to the 348 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:30,960 higher line when I you know, the higher implied team total when 349 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:35,160 I've got 2 spots where I think they're pretty even. 350 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:40,960 And also Dallas has like next to no ability to score rushing 351 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:45,400 touchdowns like, and the Rams do really like scoring rushing 352 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,200 touchdowns like that is that is all Kyron Williams knows how to 353 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,440 do. So I think I'd probably lean DAC 354 00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:53,200 there. But that's not to say that 355 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:55,200 Stafford's a bad pick by any means. 356 00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:57,360 And I I think they're both viable, certainly. 357 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:04,040 That is so like that is so wild to me that Dallas has a higher 358 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:07,480 implied team total than than the Rams. 359 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:09,760 That doesn't doesn't make a lot of sense to me. 360 00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,440 But I guess Vegas, Vegas knows better. 361 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,680 Yeah, four and a half, 4 1/2 more points. 362 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:18,480 I don't understand that. Sorry. 363 00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,120 And that's that's a game. The game total is 4 1/2 more. 364 00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:23,520 Right, the game total. So they probably have like two 365 00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:29,000 extra like points. So yeah, I mean, I don't I don't 366 00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:34,120 I think that's kind of like a a reason to it's almost like a 367 00:23:34,120 --> 00:23:36,720 tiebreaker rather than anything else, right. 368 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:42,680 But yeah, I have AI just have a hard time believing that given 369 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:46,880 how given like just a complete lack of talent on that offense 370 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:52,480 other than like those two players stock on SCD Lab. 371 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:55,480 Yeah, I mean, they, they've certainly looked atrocious. 372 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,400 I, I don't, I don't really want to be hitching my wagon to that 373 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:02,640 offense, but I, I mean, I do think that they're capable of 374 00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:06,160 scoring. I don't want to say that a ton 375 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:09,000 of the dysfunction was due to not having any semblance of a 376 00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:12,640 running game with Rico Dowdle being ruled out, but we'll we'll 377 00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:19,120 certainly touch on that later. Another quarterback spot that I 378 00:24:19,120 --> 00:24:21,320 think is is interesting to talk about here. 379 00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:24,960 We've got Jameis Winston. Now part of the Jameis Winston 380 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,320 stuff for why he looks like such an outlier on the chart for the 381 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:31,120 expected fantasy points from passing is I think we we have in 382 00:24:31,120 --> 00:24:34,640 the game where he took over part of the way through. 383 00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:38,400 So we don't have the full game there. 384 00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,200 So it's it's kind of making him look like he's throwing a lot 385 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:47,200 less than he actually was. But he was very efficient, you 386 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:49,720 know, put up, put up a pretty big game. 387 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,920 They get a tough defense here this week against the Chargers. 388 00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:58,600 So last week, no, I'm on the wrong page, I'm on this. 389 00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,680 I'm sorry for interrupting, I'm not knowing the answer. 390 00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:06,080 But that they do get a really tough defense this week and the 391 00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:09,800 Chargers, I think it's going to be a really hard spot. 392 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:15,440 They had they had 20.4 expected points from from passing against 393 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:16,800 the Ravens. OK. 394 00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:22,320 And and then, then, then he had 25 or actual points from, from, 395 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:26,480 from passing. And that's a pretty clear run 396 00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:28,640 pass funnel. Yeah, but. 397 00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:31,400 The the, the defense is much tougher this week, you were 398 00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:34,320 saying? Yeah, I I do think it's going to 399 00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:38,000 be a really fragile spot to project though, because, you 400 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,760 know, we've got a decent history with Jameis, but not a not a ton 401 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:45,480 with Jameis as a Brown operating in the context of this offense. 402 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:50,160 So it definitely feels like a a fragile spot for the projection 403 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,040 for me. I think really like the, the 404 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,920 actual interesting conversation surrounding Jameis and the 405 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:59,240 Browns offense is more about like which piece to play it 406 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,080 through. And I'll, I'll tell you right 407 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:06,560 now, it's it's all going to be coming through like Joku and 408 00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:09,680 Tillman is what I would anticipate most people wanting 409 00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,880 to do. Let me pull up the Jameis 410 00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:18,560 Winston combinations here. So the most common Jameis 411 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:22,200 Winston combinations #1 is Cedric Tillman #2 is David and 412 00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:26,280 Joku. And then after that, you know, 413 00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:28,800 that's, that's pretty much those are the only combos that are 414 00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,360 happening at like a much higher frequency than just random 415 00:26:31,360 --> 00:26:34,440 chance. So so. 416 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:40,280 I, I guess I, I don't know how, how right this is, but as I look 417 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:44,280 at some of the PFF grades for the Chargers defense, they're 418 00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:50,600 like pretty mid table in pass rush and coverage and then not 419 00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:53,760 the best and run defense and tackling. 420 00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,920 I think they're like kind of like bottom mid table apparently 421 00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:02,640 elite special teams, but at PFF certainly doesn't think that 422 00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:06,480 they're like some some often some defense that you need to 423 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:10,960 just stay away from. Yeah, the so the chargers are 424 00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:15,240 fifth in EPA allowed per drop back, 10th in drop back success 425 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:18,840 percentage, 13th in explosive pass percentage. 426 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:22,040 They're pretty bad at defending the splash zone. 427 00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:24,600 They're 29th in splash zone EPA per drop back. 428 00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:29,160 And they also give it up to first reads a lot, 22nd in first 429 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:33,240 read EPA. But yeah, you're, you're, you're 430 00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,640 not wrong. They're they're pass pass rush 431 00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:39,280 win rate grade is low and their time to pressure is worse than 432 00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:41,600 the league. So they're and their. 433 00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:45,480 Schedule here is pretty, it's pretty cooked cake where they 434 00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,280 played the Raiders, they played the Panthers, they played the 435 00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:52,200 Steelers, they played the Chiefs, they played the Broncos 436 00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:55,960 and they played the Cardinals and the Saints. 437 00:27:56,840 --> 00:28:01,080 So like, but if, if I, if I like there's, there's some like not 438 00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:04,840 the worst teams in there, but if I put all that together, like 439 00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:09,200 that's four or five, like pretty like teams that were playing 440 00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:14,960 pretty awful offense like the Raiders, Panthers, Broncos and 441 00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:19,440 Saints, like that's you'd want to have some pretty good 442 00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,400 advanced metric against those defenses, Yeah. 443 00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:25,760 That's a that's a good shout and I I think it's an interesting 444 00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:28,320 angle. So then really the only flying 445 00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:32,480 ointment to me that that would have me at all stopping from 446 00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:36,520 just really aggressively attacking this game where, you 447 00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:38,880 know, there, there's only so much you can do as far as 448 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:42,120 projecting Jameis Winston, like you just, you can't go out and 449 00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:45,160 be like, Yep, Jameis is going to Chuck it for 300 every week and, 450 00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:47,160 and three touchdowns. Like that's, that's what he's 451 00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:49,640 going to do. I think I, I would assume that 452 00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:53,400 most of the like publicly available projection systems, 453 00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:55,320 you know, the, the good projections that you're going to 454 00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:58,880 be paying for, like at ETR and stochastic are going to have him 455 00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:02,360 for like a pretty high pass rate just because that's what the 456 00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:03,680 Browns have shown us they want to do. 457 00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,000 They're they're happy to be in above PROE team. 458 00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:08,240 And now they have Jameis Winston, they, they probably 459 00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,200 feel a little free to even attack that more. 460 00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,520 So the only fly in the ointment is that the Chargers are slow 461 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:16,720 and they they want to run the ball a bunch, right? 462 00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:21,080 So the Chargers can really sour the game by just like slowing 463 00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:23,640 everything down. But yeah, I, I, you know. 464 00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:26,840 From and then I guess the only question is like, will they 465 00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:32,240 actually be able to run on the Browns like that? 466 00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:36,480 That cuz that that could be like a thing, a setup where they try 467 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:41,040 to establish the run, they fail and then the the Browns actually 468 00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:45,560 end up with a lot of possessions because the the Chargers can't 469 00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:49,680 get it going like this is a very strong Browns defense. 470 00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:53,520 The the Chargers run the charge rushing offense has been pretty 471 00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:56,600 bad too. They're 21st in EPA per rush, 472 00:29:56,600 --> 00:30:00,520 21st in rush success rate, 31st in run grade. 473 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:05,520 Like they're they're decent at run block win rate, but you 474 00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:10,800 know, only 13th there and and Dobbins has not looked fantastic 475 00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:13,000 either. So. 476 00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:14,760 Right, He's serviceable, He's fine. 477 00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:17,120 Like I I probably might even play him. 478 00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:22,120 And because of his how much he dominates the snap right there. 479 00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:28,040 But this is a very this is a very good strong Browns defense. 480 00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:32,440 And Tim, that that would that would almost be a point to 481 00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,960 pushing me like into still playing the Browns. 482 00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:39,240 Yeah. And the more you say say that, I 483 00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,520 was like, OK, so this is a team that wants to pass the ball a 484 00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:47,160 lot with a quarterback who is a very aggressive passer. 485 00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:50,600 Is he always good? No, but he's aggressive. 486 00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:53,360 So he's going to put up. He's probably going to put up 487 00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:55,520 numbers. I don't know if you want to play 488 00:30:55,520 --> 00:31:01,280 it true Ajamiz, Ajamiz Stock, I think you certainly can, but 489 00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:03,760 it's AII. That's a pretty interesting 490 00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:07,800 offense to to get pieces off. Yeah, and, and let me, let me 491 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:11,200 just to like discuss the charger side of the ball and how it can 492 00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:13,360 relate to the, the game script here. 493 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:15,440 They've actually been passing more lately. 494 00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:19,800 So I'm going to read you the, the pass attempts for the first 495 00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:22,920 five weeks of the season or well, first four weeks, cause 496 00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,640 Chargers had a buy first four games, Chargers played 26 497 00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:31,320 attempts, 20 attempts, 18 attempts, 27 attempts. 498 00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:32,680 So those are the first four weeks. 499 00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:35,640 No attempts, no, no games over 30 attempts. 500 00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:38,400 Really, really low passing volume, you know, just 501 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,480 atrocious. Then starting with their game 502 00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:45,360 against Denver, so strong, strong pass defense, 34 attempts 503 00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:49,480 there 39 attempts against the Cardinals two weeks ago, 32 504 00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:53,040 attempts against the Saints in a a pretty easy win. 505 00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:55,000 They they weren't forced to pass here at all. 506 00:31:55,000 --> 00:32:00,800 And Justin Herbert's had 237 yards, 349 yards and 279 yards 507 00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:04,000 in the last three games. So the trend is definitely 508 00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:08,400 upward for the right passing game and. 509 00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:12,000 And that's, that's kind of like held up by the password over 510 00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:17,240 expected where in week Six 2%, week seven 4%, week eight 5%. 511 00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:22,160 So like that's three weeks in a row of above neutral password 512 00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:25,560 over expected. And like finishing with five, 5% 513 00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:29,080 is pretty it's, it's, it's not like humongous, but it's pretty 514 00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:30,800 solid. Yeah, we are. 515 00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:34,000 We are not a betting show and I do not bet any sides or totals, 516 00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:35,560 so I don't know what the fuck I'm talking about. 517 00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:39,560 But looking at this line, Chargers Browns is at 42, one of 518 00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:42,640 the lowest lines on the week. I think the only line that's 519 00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:47,520 lower is Patriots Titans at 38. Yeah, so Chargers Browns second 520 00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:50,560 lowest line on the week. It's the same line as Texans and 521 00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:54,080 Jets. I mean, this feels kind of like 522 00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:59,240 a sneaky over spot to me, right? The more we talk about this 523 00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:02,680 game, the more interested I am in attacking it on both sides. 524 00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:05,640 And I the other thing that's really interesting is Lad 525 00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:09,760 Mcconkey is still free in dog bowl drafts and he like he was 526 00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,160 very clear that the Chargers wide receiver won prior to this 527 00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:13,760 week. And then he has this huge 528 00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:17,960 breakout and, you know, displays like the some of the things that 529 00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:20,200 made us so excited about the profile that he can win 530 00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:22,240 downfield. He's you know, he's a very good 531 00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:23,480 athlete. He's good with the ball in his 532 00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:26,000 hand. So I mean, he's free. 533 00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,800 And then circling all the way back to the thing I was first 534 00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,480 saying about the Browns, people are going hard on Cedric Tillman 535 00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:35,760 and David and Joku. Elijah Moore was the target 536 00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:37,960 leader. And, and I don't think it's it's 537 00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:41,640 crazy to say that the touchdowns that went to Cedric Tillman 538 00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:44,800 could very easily have gone to Elijah Moore instead. 539 00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:49,600 And I haven't seen the first read data yet, but I would bet 540 00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:52,520 you dollars to Donuts that Elijah Moore was probably 541 00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,640 getting the grip of the first read stuff just the way that his 542 00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:57,320 his profile has been in the past. 543 00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:00,760 I'm making an assumption here. So like when when Pat comes out 544 00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:02,840 with the walkthrough later this week, and like, that's not the 545 00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:06,160 case, I'm happy to be wrong. But my assumption prior to 546 00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:09,199 looking at the first read data is I, I would bet you that 547 00:34:09,199 --> 00:34:11,280 Elijah Moore is the one getting that first read stuff. 548 00:34:11,679 --> 00:34:14,159 And that has been where the Browns are kind of weak. 549 00:34:14,159 --> 00:34:18,960 So as as teams, really, Yeah. Excuse me? 550 00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:26,560 But what we don't, we don't have the first read data and we do 551 00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:30,639 have the targets. And so week eight, he had a 33% 552 00:34:30,639 --> 00:34:37,000 targets per out run, 11 targets, 85 yards and 2.6 yards per out 553 00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:41,320 run. So that that he's the one like 554 00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:44,480 he he's he's there. He was their main target in that 555 00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:46,600 game. And then because Cedric Tillman 556 00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,840 had the like very high profile touchdown at the end, that's 557 00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:54,760 kind of still in the spotlight and but Elijah Moore pretty 558 00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:59,320 attractive there. Yeah, and yeah, Brown's. 559 00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:03,280 And this is as of last week, Brown's defense first read EPA 560 00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:05,040 for a drop back 24th in the league. 561 00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:08,560 And I I think that speaks to teams trying to get the ball out 562 00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:11,960 quick against their pass rush. So kind of like Elijah Moore 563 00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:13,560 this week, he's going to be free. 564 00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:17,160 So yeah, I I really like that spot here. 565 00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:21,640 And Elijah Murray, who plays for the Browns. 566 00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:27,600 So you were saying that you were saying that the Chargers are 567 00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:29,040 weak against the first read stuff. 568 00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:31,760 No, no, no. The Browns. 569 00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:35,880 The Browns are 2020 fourth in the league. 570 00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,400 OK, Read EPA for drop back on defense. 571 00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:39,240 OK. OK. 572 00:35:39,240 --> 00:35:41,640 So that that would be suggestive for Lad Mcconkey. 573 00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:43,600 Yes. OK. 574 00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:46,840 But I think earlier you had that same point about the Chargers. 575 00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:49,720 I believe it's true for both. Let me go pull the Chargers back 576 00:35:49,720 --> 00:35:51,200 up. I think the Chargers are a 577 00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:53,280 little bit worse there. Let's let's find out. 578 00:35:57,080 --> 00:36:02,840 Chargers pass defense first read EPA. 579 00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:05,480 Yeah, 22nd. So yeah, they're they both are 580 00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:09,320 not great. And yeah, Chargers very weak at 581 00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:14,160 defending the splash zone. So yeah, that I think that 582 00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:17,160 that's kind of interesting. Like I'm worried because the 583 00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:21,120 Browns defense is that good that that that gives me the one 584 00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:24,560 concern. And but I, it's such a 585 00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:28,840 contrarian play that I, I, I think you can kind of like look 586 00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:32,480 through that. Yeah, I'm I'm pretty into this 587 00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:34,640 game. I'm I'm sneakily into this game 588 00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:39,360 now the these numbers are I don't know if we can throw them 589 00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:42,240 out entirely, but it's going to be hard to rely on these since 590 00:36:42,240 --> 00:36:44,800 most of these came with Deshaun Watson. 591 00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:50,080 But Elijah Moore first percentile in splash zone target 592 00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:54,760 rate Tillman and Judy both about the same 40th and 49th 593 00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:59,000 percentile respectively. So who knows? 594 00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:04,520 Right, I mean here like I guess we we don't have the we don't 595 00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:07,760 have the the just isolated the gym is and stats. 596 00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:12,640 But to me, it doesn't have to be any more complicated than Elijah 597 00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:18,560 Moore, main target earner and on this team in in his first game 598 00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:23,520 and the game without and what what's the what's the guy who 599 00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:28,000 they traded and Amari Cooper. I don't think it actually has to 600 00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:31,840 be any more complicated than like he's the main guy getting 601 00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,480 targets. He's completely under the radar 602 00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:38,640 because of the Cedric Tillman touchdown and he should be a 603 00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:43,680 target. Yeah, definitely agree. 604 00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:46,560 Are there? And that's that's the same for 605 00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:50,160 Ram. I think that that I know we're 606 00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:53,240 on the quarterback part, but I think he's a pretty compelling 607 00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:59,600 and waiver target as well. Like if he shouldn't be under 608 00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:05,040 the radar, but like if he is like he's a pretty it doesn't it 609 00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:08,800 doesn't get much better of a of a waiver Tiger target down at 610 00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:11,240 Lejimur. Yeah, absolutely. 611 00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:14,880 Were there any other quarterbacks you wanted to touch 612 00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:16,560 on or? Should we? 613 00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:23,120 No, no, I'm ready to move on. OK, on to the Yeah, on to the 614 00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:30,560 running backs. And so I guess my my notes here 615 00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:35,800 where the first one being the kind of obligatory nod to Kyron 616 00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:38,440 where he he is the running back dominator. 617 00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:41,440 He is the one they want to get in in the end zone. 618 00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:46,600 Have been doing that every game. And then with that offense now 619 00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:53,000 playing well with the return of their two star receivers, like I 620 00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:57,800 think Tyron is basically RB one this week and it doesn't seem 621 00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:00,640 like he's priced like that. Maybe that changes closer 622 00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:04,160 towards the game and but to me he's pretty clear RB1. 623 00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:08,920 You think he's RB one this week? Yeah. 624 00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:14,320 Yeah, it's he's definitely, he's one of the stronger spots on the 625 00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:16,520 week. The the other guys who like go 626 00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:20,960 ahead of him be Alvin Kamara, who also has a very strong role 627 00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:22,720 and is going against. The hamsters. 628 00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:27,400 So to me, Kamara is kind of like a safe project, projectable 629 00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:31,600 volume play where yes. And what's? 630 00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:34,080 Sorry, go ahead. Oh, I I was just agreeing with 631 00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:38,320 you. And where he's went in the in 632 00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:41,600 the games where they're doing pearly and he's just getting 633 00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:46,400 force fed targets. I guess if they if they are able 634 00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:51,520 to do well against his Panthers defense, it will be true Camara. 635 00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:57,600 But given like the systemic issues with the offense, and I 636 00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:02,160 know he had this hot start to the year Camara did, but that 637 00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:07,440 hasn't really continued. And maybe maybe I have egg on my 638 00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:13,320 face this time next week, but to me that that that that doesn't 639 00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:18,520 scream GPP play like it doesn't like he's priced as or be one 640 00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:22,760 and like, and I'm not I'm not saying that he's like he's like 641 00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:25,560 a bad play. It just I think Kyron is a 642 00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:28,400 better play. Like I tell me what? 643 00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:34,160 Tell me what Camara has that Kyron doesn't in terms of 644 00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:38,360 volume, and then tell me why he's going to be more efficient 645 00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:40,840 than like a young, better player. 646 00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:44,000 He he will not be more Kamara will not be more efficient than 647 00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:47,480 anyone, like full stop, you know, but the thing that Kamara 648 00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:51,520 will do is he'll get all these stupid, really annoying targets. 649 00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:54,960 You know, where he's he's just they, they've got him lying. 650 00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:57,120 Why? Does not win your GPP though. 651 00:40:58,320 --> 00:41:03,040 I mean to death, death by 1000 PPR scams can can certainly get 652 00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:06,400 there. I mean, the guy had what, 15 653 00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:09,640 points this last week and he, he did not look particularly. 654 00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:11,080 Good. Yeah. 655 00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:14,480 I mean 15 points like it's 15 points like you take that. 656 00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:16,560 But without. Your that's getting popular. 657 00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:18,840 It's without being in the end zone. 658 00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:22,480 And now they're playing against the Panthers, who just seem 659 00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:26,800 entirely hopeless on on defense. So I don't know. 660 00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:28,560 I'm not. I certainly don't want to be the 661 00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:32,920 one stumping for Kamara. I definitely think that there's 662 00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:34,880 a strong case for Kyron to go over him. 663 00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:36,520 The one that I think is. Right. 664 00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:38,920 That's all I'm trying to say. All I'm trying to say is that 665 00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:43,000 Kyron, like it's to me it's pretty clearly Kyron over 666 00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:46,160 Kamara. The one that now, it's not like 667 00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:49,440 this guy's going overlooked or anything, is AD PS about 6. 668 00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:54,200 So he's still going in the first round, but I think Derrick Henry 669 00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:56,920 is probably getting a little too much hate for this match up. 670 00:41:57,360 --> 00:41:58,880 So they're playing against the Broncos. 671 00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:02,040 And I think people are reading into it too much through the 672 00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:05,120 lens of like, oh, the Broncos are a really strong defense, 673 00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:09,160 therefore bad for Derrick Henry. And I think Derrick Henry 674 00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:12,920 doesn't really give a shit one way or another how good or bad 675 00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:15,880 your run defense is. I think what Derrick Henry and 676 00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:20,120 his production cares about is more what is the game script for 677 00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:24,720 the Ravens and the Ravens are 10 point favourites in this game. 678 00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:28,880 And so I, I mean, when the Ravens get the Ravens are such a 679 00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:32,920 bipolar team where when they are in a situation where they think 680 00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:36,640 they need to be passing, they are like all in on the passing, 681 00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:39,320 like Derrick Henry get off the field, it's Justice Hill time. 682 00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:42,560 And we saw that in the first half of their game two weeks ago 683 00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:46,200 where Henry only got, I think it was like only four touches in, 684 00:42:46,240 --> 00:42:49,120 in the entire first half because Justice Hill was on the field 685 00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:52,080 the whole time. But when the Ravens get ahead, 686 00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:55,480 they flip the switch and all of a sudden it's Derrick Henry 687 00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:58,320 time. I just see this as a game where 688 00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:02,240 the Ravens could be ahead pretty early and it could be right 689 00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:03,280 here. I mean. 690 00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:08,400 But I guess my pushback would be, don't you think like that 691 00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:14,120 being 6th overall is like an appropriate discount with his 692 00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:17,120 game script risk? Like none of these other guys 693 00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:20,320 have that kind of like game script risk in, in, in their 694 00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:22,800 profile. They all, they all have upside 695 00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:24,600 like that's why they're in the first round. 696 00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:29,360 But I think he should be cheaper just because of that additional 697 00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:31,360 risk that you don't have with those other guys. 698 00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:34,840 Yeah, that's reasonable. I I might just be discounting 699 00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:36,840 the game script risk too much because. 700 00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:40,600 Right, the base base is. There isn't any. 701 00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:43,400 Yeah, getting a temporary spread implies that it's going to be 702 00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:47,440 pretty damn tough for the Broncos to to be right in a 703 00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:50,040 strong position of this game and and dictate the pass to the 704 00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:53,000 Ravens. So that's right. 705 00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:57,280 That's the most likely scenario. It is that they're ahead, is 706 00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:00,560 that they yam is that they established the run and like 707 00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:07,320 they get their Henry going. And but I I guess to me it's 708 00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:11,520 it's almost like, well, those other like that. 709 00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:14,400 That's something that you need to have happen that you don't 710 00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:18,360 need for those other players. So even if it's like a 70 711 00:44:18,360 --> 00:44:22,760 percent, 7580% chance, that's still a 20% chance that your 712 00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:26,800 guy, your first, your 6th overall pick and just gets game 713 00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:31,360 scripted out of the game. Yeah, one of the one of the guys 714 00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:34,960 I thought was really interesting on this chart is Tony Pollard 715 00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:39,320 with no Taje Spears is up here just with an absolute workhorse 716 00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:41,920 role. There's yeah, and last two weeks 717 00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:45,920 he's 85% SNAP, right? Couple couple warts on the frog 718 00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:48,760 here, though #1 Mason Rudolph's quarterbacks. 719 00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:51,880 That's not great #2 they're playing. 720 00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:55,640 It's the Patriots who the Patriots have been bad against 721 00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:58,840 the run this last week. They actually weren't quite as 722 00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:03,480 bad, frustratingly for anyone with Reese Hall in fantasy. 723 00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:08,320 But but also the the game total is just so low. 724 00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:14,480 So it's hard for me to see like the Super huge like Pollard 725 00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:18,080 ceiling just seems a little bit more capped to me than someone 726 00:45:18,080 --> 00:45:21,600 like a Tyron Williams just has such a better ceiling than Tony 727 00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:24,800 Pollard, right? It's just the offense is so much 728 00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:28,480 better, substantially better game environment, you know all. 729 00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:30,760 That stuff. But Pollard, Pollard was 730 00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:32,200 somebody who still gave it to me too. 731 00:45:32,200 --> 00:45:36,560 Where and nowhere else are you getting this kind of well and in 732 00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:39,120 very in very few other places are you getting that kind of 733 00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:41,680 snapshare where you know they're going to dominate the 734 00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:45,680 backfields. And he is going very, very 735 00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:49,080 cheap, very, very cheap. And and I could definitely see 736 00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:53,240 like there's been much stranger things than the Titans having a 737 00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:57,320 good game against like a pretty weak Patriots defense. 738 00:45:57,720 --> 00:46:00,680 Yeah, I, I, I like him a lot this week. 739 00:46:01,480 --> 00:46:04,240 You know, he's definitely a pretty good price adjusted guy 740 00:46:04,240 --> 00:46:05,880 too. Like he goes relatively cheap 741 00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:09,360 for his role, right? He's like a fantastic running 742 00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:13,920 back to take in the dog bowls when you went early wide 743 00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:16,600 receiver or you took one of the early quarterbacks or something. 744 00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:18,560 And so you're just like, you're really behind the 8 ball at 745 00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:21,160 running back and Tony Paul was just sitting there with like 746 00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:24,800 what feels like a floor of 15 touches, you know, so. 747 00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:29,360 Right, so he had he had 16 expected points last week, which 748 00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:32,920 it is pretty good. He the problem is he massively 749 00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:36,320 on the performance that because the offense has been kind of dog 750 00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:41,160 shit, but maybe they can be pretty good against them. 751 00:46:41,160 --> 00:46:44,040 I mean, the the Titans did pretty good against the Dolphins 752 00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:49,760 defense and I, I don't I don't think the Dolphins defense is 753 00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:54,600 any like is, is is considerably worse than the Patriots defense. 754 00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:58,720 So, like, to me, it's such a a clearly possible outcome that he 755 00:46:58,720 --> 00:47:00,600 smashes against his Patriots defense. 756 00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:03,640 Yeah, definitely a a good call on Pollard. 757 00:47:03,680 --> 00:47:07,960 I I like him there. You had a a good note about 758 00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:11,880 Dijon. Now I believe that in this last 759 00:47:11,880 --> 00:47:15,360 week, correct me if I'm wrong, didn't he he got like a 60 yard 760 00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:16,680 touchdown call back? Am I? 761 00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:23,720 Am I misremembering this? I I don't remember that. 762 00:47:25,520 --> 00:47:28,600 I think you're probably right. Just because I don't remember, I 763 00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:30,760 might have been distracted by something else when it happened. 764 00:47:32,320 --> 00:47:36,040 Yeah, it's but. I, I, but I think it, it, the 765 00:47:36,040 --> 00:47:38,360 underlying point, it's, it's, it's true. 766 00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:43,360 It's truly, it's truthful. Even even I don't know if it's 767 00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:49,760 if it's true, but he is a very explosive playmaker and, and he 768 00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:54,840 clearly it's helpful that he dominates the, the route stuff. 769 00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:58,600 He, he dominates the passing game and work. 770 00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:05,480 It's unfortunate that he has to split the, the carries and, and, 771 00:48:05,480 --> 00:48:09,520 and my note here was that even when Algier missed time, they 772 00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:13,040 brought in Jason McClellan, the split with Bijan instead. 773 00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:17,080 So clearly they're interested in keeping him fresh because he's, 774 00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:20,000 he's, he's one of their stars. They want to make sure that 775 00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:23,160 they're not they're not overloading him with these like 776 00:48:23,200 --> 00:48:27,280 low impact carries. I wish they they'd overload them 777 00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:28,840 with some more of the goal line looks. 778 00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:36,720 But he's still like to me, he's still interesting because when 779 00:48:36,720 --> 00:48:41,320 you look at his expected points, 15 expected points for the year, 780 00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:44,840 that's still pretty good. That's still pretty good at 781 00:48:44,960 --> 00:48:49,880 projection. And he's also been delivering 782 00:48:49,880 --> 00:48:52,560 efficiency. And so you, you, you can get 783 00:48:52,560 --> 00:48:55,080 this, you can get this guy. And I think he's, he's, he's had 784 00:48:55,080 --> 00:48:58,920 games like this where his, his projection or his expected 785 00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:02,600 points is like 15 and then he goes 10 over or 15 over. 786 00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:05,280 So you get your you get your 3030 overall points. 787 00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:09,080 So I I think that's AI think he's a like I I don't think 788 00:49:09,080 --> 00:49:10,960 that's him. That's news to anybody, but 789 00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:13,400 pretty good play. But, and that's how to think 790 00:49:13,400 --> 00:49:15,800 about him, I think. Well, and he's also in that 791 00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:18,560 Cowboys game with, you know, highest, highest total on the 792 00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:20,920 week against a terrible run defense. 793 00:49:22,520 --> 00:49:26,600 I mean, I don't believe that that Parsons is going to be 794 00:49:26,600 --> 00:49:29,120 back. I haven't haven't been checking 795 00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:32,000 in on his injury status, but I believe the Cowboys are still 796 00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:35,800 going to be without their two best defenders for DeMarcus 797 00:49:35,800 --> 00:49:40,120 Lawrence and Micah Parsons. So this could be, I know a 798 00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:43,520 couple weeks ago people were talking about the Dijon against 799 00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:47,640 the Panthers spot is like the IT sets up for oh, this is the get 800 00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:50,000 right spot for Dijon. He has to go off here or it's 801 00:49:50,000 --> 00:49:52,480 over. I think we might be getting 802 00:49:52,480 --> 00:49:55,280 another one of those really excellent spots for Dijon this 803 00:49:55,280 --> 00:49:57,440 week. So he's definitely someone I'm 804 00:49:57,440 --> 00:50:00,560 into playing here. Yeah, it makes sense. 805 00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:03,840 Makes sense for sure. My next note was about Jameer 806 00:50:03,840 --> 00:50:09,000 Gibbs, where he's just so clearly splitting the carry, 807 00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:13,240 splitting the carries and you're only getting like 12 expected 808 00:50:13,240 --> 00:50:18,000 points. And so to me, at his cost at 809 00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:21,560 where he went in basketball season, it's been great to see 810 00:50:21,560 --> 00:50:23,440 him make the big explosive plays. 811 00:50:23,880 --> 00:50:27,320 But just like in, in kind of single week stuff kind of need 812 00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:31,960 to note that you, you, you do need, you need the big runs, you 813 00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:36,280 need the big home run plays from him like that, that, that that's 814 00:50:36,280 --> 00:50:40,560 how he gets there. Yeah, it's, it's tricky because 815 00:50:40,560 --> 00:50:45,400 when we get players like this, you know, we a, a lot of times 816 00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:48,080 we just want to lean into it and say this guy's shown that he can 817 00:50:48,080 --> 00:50:51,440 deliver these fantasy breaking plays. 818 00:50:51,440 --> 00:50:57,480 You know, it just just takes 1 and I don't know why I have some 819 00:50:57,840 --> 00:51:00,960 some internal bias that's like stopping me from being so gung 820 00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:03,400 ho about Jamere Gibbs. Like I would be about Devana 821 00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:05,800 Chan or or like I I mean, I know. 822 00:51:05,840 --> 00:51:08,880 What what a Chan is always cheaper so it's like what? 823 00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:10,440 Why? Why don't I play the Gibbs price 824 00:51:10,440 --> 00:51:12,200 when I can just get the same profile for? 825 00:51:12,200 --> 00:51:15,720 And and a Chan's work, Chan's role is so much better where 826 00:51:15,720 --> 00:51:19,480 he's getting, you know, 6 high value touches minimum a game. 827 00:51:19,480 --> 00:51:21,000 He's getting all these targets right. 828 00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:25,200 And Gibbs just isn't getting as much stuff in the passing game 829 00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:30,120 as we would like. So I, I mean, I think Gibbs is 830 00:51:30,120 --> 00:51:33,800 really good. It's just because I feel like 831 00:51:33,800 --> 00:51:37,080 we're being we're being forced to pay up for that extreme 832 00:51:37,080 --> 00:51:41,640 efficiency, which like we should have to pay for it, but it's I'm 833 00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:44,960 starting to feel like it's probably priced to the point, I 834 00:51:45,000 --> 00:51:48,240 mean, at least in these weekly draft games where he's priced 835 00:51:48,240 --> 00:51:51,160 efficiently his his average. It's a different price. 836 00:51:51,160 --> 00:51:52,240 I think that's a good way to put it. 837 00:51:52,520 --> 00:51:56,560 So he let me let me read you a couple options this week and and 838 00:51:56,560 --> 00:52:00,640 you tell me who you want here, Devana Chan or Jameer Gibbs. 839 00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:04,480 We we touched on it's a Chan. Kenneth Walker. 840 00:52:04,480 --> 00:52:08,440 Jameer Gibbs. I think you want Kenny. 841 00:52:08,440 --> 00:52:12,280 I think you want Kenneth Walker. James Cook against the Dolphins 842 00:52:12,280 --> 00:52:19,640 or Jameer Gibbs. And I think that's close. 843 00:52:20,200 --> 00:52:23,480 I think you've got kind of similar issues for Cook where 844 00:52:23,880 --> 00:52:30,440 they want to get other guys involved and and you're you're 845 00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:34,080 paying for the possibility of really good efficiency. 846 00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:37,720 Yeah, I think those two are pretty close. 847 00:52:37,720 --> 00:52:41,760 I think that's kind of, you know, a pretty similar 848 00:52:42,360 --> 00:52:44,000 archetype. I I mean Gibbs, so. 849 00:52:44,400 --> 00:52:47,440 I guess if, if I'm arguing against myself, I I kind of said 850 00:52:47,440 --> 00:52:51,280 that going into my head if I'm arguing against myself and he 851 00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:53,480 did get 17 rush attempts last week. 852 00:52:54,320 --> 00:52:59,520 So to me actually like reviewing that, that 17 rush attempts, 72 853 00:52:59,520 --> 00:53:04,840 plays so and not on the field for half the plays. 854 00:53:05,360 --> 00:53:09,840 So actually, and I'm I'm, I'm going to I'm going to go back to 855 00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:12,520 what I originally said, where if he's only on the field for half 856 00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:16,480 the place, very similar to Gibbs, you you're paying for the 857 00:53:16,480 --> 00:53:19,360 possibility of efficiency. Very similar role. 858 00:53:19,720 --> 00:53:22,680 And just because he had a high play, he had a high play count 859 00:53:22,680 --> 00:53:25,320 last week. And that's because the Buffalo, 860 00:53:25,600 --> 00:53:28,240 the Bills had a high play count. And even though he's only 861 00:53:28,240 --> 00:53:30,800 getting half of that, that half looks pretty big. 862 00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:35,440 Yeah, I think I yeah, as I think about it, I think I'm Gibbs 863 00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:40,680 Overcook, but it's close. I mean, I'm I'm tie breaking. 864 00:53:40,760 --> 00:53:44,320 Like, the Lions have a better offensive line and the touchdown 865 00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:47,160 equity for Gibbs is probably slightly better than Cook given 866 00:53:47,160 --> 00:53:48,320 the Josh. It's much better. 867 00:53:48,640 --> 00:53:51,480 It's much better right where where Josh Allen is is going to 868 00:53:51,480 --> 00:53:53,440 steal touchdown. You do you have David Montgomery 869 00:53:53,440 --> 00:53:54,920 stealing some touchdown equity from Gibbs. 870 00:53:54,920 --> 00:53:58,000 So I think it's, it's close, but I, I do think it's Gibbs over 871 00:53:58,000 --> 00:54:02,000 Cook, but I think they're closer than than people would think. 872 00:54:02,320 --> 00:54:04,920 Right, right. Agreed. 873 00:54:07,720 --> 00:54:11,720 And my my moving on my next note. 874 00:54:11,720 --> 00:54:13,240 So we talked about Kenneth Walker. 875 00:54:13,760 --> 00:54:16,760 It does it does look like they've gotten sharps back 876 00:54:16,760 --> 00:54:19,680 involved. So I think Kenneth walk Kenneth 877 00:54:19,680 --> 00:54:22,640 Walker is still the main guy. He's dominating the rushes 878 00:54:22,640 --> 00:54:26,400 between the 20s and then splitting the the targets, 879 00:54:26,400 --> 00:54:30,800 splitting the goal and work. But so I, I, I want to interject 880 00:54:30,800 --> 00:54:33,480 here, 'cause I, I watched this game and Sharbs is not really 881 00:54:33,480 --> 00:54:36,280 involved until it started getting out of hand. 882 00:54:36,920 --> 00:54:40,000 Like Kenneth Walker was in on pretty much all the goal line 883 00:54:40,000 --> 00:54:42,520 stuff early. So this game had a couple really 884 00:54:42,520 --> 00:54:46,880 frustrating sequences if you were invested in Kenneth Walker 885 00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:49,000 for fantasy this week, which I was heavily. 886 00:54:49,840 --> 00:54:53,480 So the Seahawks get the ball, it's first and goal, they snap 887 00:54:53,480 --> 00:54:57,760 the ball, it goes 1,000,000 yards over Gino's head. 888 00:54:58,040 --> 00:55:02,960 Kenneth Walker sprints the ball, manages to scoop it up and run 889 00:55:02,960 --> 00:55:06,400 for a little bit of positive yardage, but it's still a 19 890 00:55:06,400 --> 00:55:10,280 yard loss on the play. So he he gets credited for -19 891 00:55:10,280 --> 00:55:12,280 rushing yards on that play. So that's not great. 892 00:55:12,920 --> 00:55:17,960 Then they finally get back up to the goal line and it's looking 893 00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:20,920 like it's going to be another Kenneth Walker rushing attempt. 894 00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:25,080 False start on the offense. And so that's that's a big 895 00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:27,520 bummer. And then a third one. 896 00:55:27,680 --> 00:55:31,200 They're they're sitting there for this Kenneth Walker rush 897 00:55:31,200 --> 00:55:34,200 attempt again, the ball was snapped. 898 00:55:34,440 --> 00:55:38,080 It's going to be a hand off and the center steps on Gino's foot. 899 00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:41,680 Gino falls down, the play is broken, no hand off. 900 00:55:41,680 --> 00:55:45,200 So Kenneth Walker had three goal line attempts that should have 901 00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:48,480 been that never were. And Charminet really wasn't 902 00:55:48,520 --> 00:55:52,400 anywhere to be seen during these early, like the early portions 903 00:55:52,400 --> 00:55:55,280 of the game. But I mean, this game got out of 904 00:55:55,280 --> 00:55:57,400 hand. Yeah, you're right. 905 00:55:57,400 --> 00:55:59,240 You're right. When I look when I look at these 906 00:55:59,400 --> 00:56:03,840 utter weeks and when I look at the utter weeks, Kenneth Walker 907 00:56:07,240 --> 00:56:12,200 clearly ahead in unexpected. OK, so I, I guess I'm, I'm 908 00:56:12,200 --> 00:56:15,040 ending that statement to he's dominating, he's dominating the 909 00:56:15,040 --> 00:56:20,040 carries in general. And then Charbonnet is is a is a 910 00:56:20,040 --> 00:56:23,960 little bit involved in the passing game, which I think does 911 00:56:23,960 --> 00:56:27,200 give him some level of standalone value. 912 00:56:29,440 --> 00:56:34,000 I'm I'm a big sharps fan, but this game the the value that 913 00:56:34,000 --> 00:56:37,800 came to Charbonnay really was just a a factor of like the game 914 00:56:38,160 --> 00:56:39,680 to me. It felt like they were saving 915 00:56:39,680 --> 00:56:42,840 Kenneth Walker. They the, the game was so bad 916 00:56:42,840 --> 00:56:45,320 for the Gino. I don't know if you, you got to 917 00:56:45,320 --> 00:56:47,800 watch all this game. Gino Smith was crying on the 918 00:56:47,800 --> 00:56:50,840 sideline during this game, like actually crying. 919 00:56:50,840 --> 00:56:53,800 He was so frustrated. Their offense could not get 920 00:56:53,800 --> 00:56:56,960 anything going. And so the Seahawks didn't 921 00:56:56,960 --> 00:56:59,440 totally wave the white flag, but they kind of waved the white 922 00:56:59,440 --> 00:57:03,120 flag pretty early in this one. And and Sharp started getting 923 00:57:03,120 --> 00:57:07,520 like full series rather than just like, you know, spelling 924 00:57:07,520 --> 00:57:10,520 Kenneth Walker. And then in fact, the the 925 00:57:10,520 --> 00:57:13,440 touchdown that Charbonnay got, I don't think Walker saw the field 926 00:57:13,440 --> 00:57:15,960 at all in that drive. I want to say that it was like a 927 00:57:16,200 --> 00:57:18,360 three score game point or something. 928 00:57:18,480 --> 00:57:23,680 I, I do, if I look, if I look at a couple of games that they've 929 00:57:23,680 --> 00:57:27,280 both been healthy and active for, Charbonnay has been kind of 930 00:57:27,280 --> 00:57:30,520 consistently involved in the in the passing game. 931 00:57:31,200 --> 00:57:36,360 He's been consistently involved with the getting, getting roots 932 00:57:36,360 --> 00:57:42,800 like let me, let me let me look at the, the average for so 933 00:57:42,800 --> 00:57:47,560 Chardonnay over the last four week average he's seen 22% 934 00:57:47,560 --> 00:57:51,040 routes and versus 34% for Walker. 935 00:57:51,960 --> 00:57:59,680 So that, that, that that's still like, I, I mean, 22% up and then 936 00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:06,800 a, a 40% snap rate. It's like that's like, OK, yeah, 937 00:58:06,800 --> 00:58:08,400 I don't, I don't think you're happy to start them. 938 00:58:08,400 --> 00:58:11,480 I don't, I don't think that's anywhere near playable in GPP. 939 00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:17,760 But I think if if if you have some 0B or B squads where you're 940 00:58:17,760 --> 00:58:21,000 crying for like a running back start, I think Sharps is fine. 941 00:58:22,120 --> 00:58:23,360 Right. Yeah, you could. 942 00:58:23,400 --> 00:58:26,720 You could certainly do worse. But like, let's let's think 943 00:58:26,720 --> 00:58:28,480 through. But and I guess the overall 944 00:58:28,480 --> 00:58:30,400 point is this is Kenneth Walker's backfield. 945 00:58:30,720 --> 00:58:33,040 I'm not trying to take away from that point, but I think that's 946 00:58:33,040 --> 00:58:37,040 the overall point. But I kind of I kind of in 947 00:58:37,040 --> 00:58:40,800 myself, a Todd of Chardonnay is like not even worthy of 948 00:58:40,800 --> 00:58:45,520 consideration. And I think and for playing and 949 00:58:45,520 --> 00:58:47,760 and and re drop and I and I think he is. 950 00:58:49,200 --> 00:58:53,120 Yeah, the the list of guys that you you'd have to get through to 951 00:58:53,360 --> 00:58:57,120 to need to start Chardonnay is like, you know, say Rico Dowdle 952 00:58:57,120 --> 00:58:58,760 is active this week for the Cowboys. 953 00:58:58,760 --> 00:59:00,840 You're still starting Rico Dowdle over Charbonnay, like 954 00:59:00,840 --> 00:59:02,960 Chase Brown, Zach, What about Zach Moss? 955 00:59:03,000 --> 00:59:04,760 You doing Zach Moss or Zach Charbonnay? 956 00:59:06,080 --> 00:59:09,960 And yeah, Zach Moss, but they're, they're, I, I know that 957 00:59:09,960 --> 00:59:13,360 there's some squads there where they don't have those guys. 958 00:59:14,040 --> 00:59:16,920 And it's it's Sean Tucker or Charbonnay. 959 00:59:17,000 --> 00:59:17,960 Right, right. Yeah. 960 00:59:18,760 --> 00:59:22,120 Or or or something like that. There's some squads crying for 961 00:59:22,120 --> 00:59:24,960 running backs and those are the squads that I'm talking. 962 00:59:24,960 --> 00:59:28,360 I'm not talking about the ones where you've gotten solid 0 RB 963 00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:30,720 hits and you're playing those guys. 964 00:59:31,640 --> 00:59:33,600 Like I don't think, I don't think he's in consideration 965 00:59:33,600 --> 00:59:35,480 there. I think he's, he's, I guess a, a 966 00:59:36,120 --> 00:59:37,560 good desperation. Start. 967 00:59:37,880 --> 00:59:39,160 Yeah. Like you're, you're starting on 968 00:59:39,160 --> 00:59:41,680 the teams where you're waiting for Kamani Vidal to do 969 00:59:41,680 --> 00:59:42,440 something. You're starting. 970 00:59:42,440 --> 00:59:44,400 Sharpening, right? Right. 971 00:59:44,480 --> 00:59:47,080 That's a good way to put it. The and. 972 00:59:48,240 --> 00:59:51,840 The other one I had was Ramandre Curry, back in the workhorse 973 00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:56,680 role, predicted I'm I'm kind of particularly notice notable with 974 00:59:56,680 --> 01:00:02,240 the Anthony Gibson fumble and reminder famously benched but 975 01:00:02,240 --> 01:00:07,440 not really benched for his fumbling issues in place of 976 01:00:07,800 --> 01:00:10,680 Antonio Gibson. That didn't seem to last long. 977 01:00:11,800 --> 01:00:15,680 Yeah, I think the reminder role feels pretty strong going 978 01:00:15,680 --> 01:00:18,960 forward. I mean, with when you have Drake 979 01:00:18,960 --> 01:00:22,120 May in there too, I, I think it's definitely helpful for 980 01:00:22,120 --> 01:00:26,760 Ramondre just because the the defense then has to account for 981 01:00:26,760 --> 01:00:29,400 Drake May's rushing ability. He's been a pretty effective 982 01:00:29,400 --> 01:00:31,760 rusher. He was, I believe he was over 50 983 01:00:31,760 --> 01:00:35,960 yards in this game before he went out with a concussion. 984 01:00:36,480 --> 01:00:41,280 So yeah, Ramondre definitely a a very solid plug and play, you 985 01:00:41,280 --> 01:00:47,400 know, low end RV 2 type of guy, high end RV 3, you know, really, 986 01:00:47,400 --> 01:00:50,360 really the limitation just coming from how how bad the 987 01:00:50,360 --> 01:00:53,800 offense is. The offense is made 988 01:00:53,800 --> 01:00:56,920 substantially more exciting with Drake May We'll we'll have to 989 01:00:56,920 --> 01:00:59,520 see if he misses a week due to the concussion. 990 01:00:59,800 --> 01:01:02,160 I'd say it's pretty likely he misses a week. 991 01:01:02,160 --> 01:01:05,320 That's just kind of the way things seem to go in the NFL 992 01:01:05,320 --> 01:01:07,000 now. It's very rare that you have a 993 01:01:07,000 --> 01:01:10,680 guy who's able to clear the protocol and and not miss a 994 01:01:10,680 --> 01:01:11,720 game. So. 995 01:01:13,520 --> 01:01:16,960 Right, right. Yeah. 996 01:01:18,480 --> 01:01:20,640 But I mean, he's still a feature player for him. 997 01:01:20,920 --> 01:01:26,640 So yeah, still pretty, pretty playable, especially in a kind 998 01:01:26,640 --> 01:01:30,240 of a very cheap workhorse role. Yeah. 999 01:01:30,240 --> 01:01:33,120 The other guy that you have a note on here that is in an 1000 01:01:33,120 --> 01:01:36,960 absolute workhorse role is JK Dobbins. 1001 01:01:36,960 --> 01:01:41,440 So I mean, he he had some pretty incredible efficiency to start 1002 01:01:41,440 --> 01:01:43,960 the season with some huge breakaway runs, really 1003 01:01:43,960 --> 01:01:45,680 propelling a lot of that efficiency. 1004 01:01:46,680 --> 01:01:51,560 Those have since dried up. I'm wondering if, you know, 1005 01:01:51,560 --> 01:01:56,040 we're if it was just like fluky that we got those at the start 1006 01:01:56,040 --> 01:02:00,560 of the season or if it was, you know, him having fresh legs 1007 01:02:00,560 --> 01:02:04,880 there. But yeah, if you look at where 1008 01:02:04,880 --> 01:02:08,040 Dobbins is on this efficiency chart, he's sitting in a pretty 1009 01:02:08,040 --> 01:02:10,000 good spot. He's right above 15 expected 1010 01:02:10,000 --> 01:02:14,600 fantasy points per game. He's getting a lot of work, but 1011 01:02:14,680 --> 01:02:17,080 it's been a lot less efficient lately. 1012 01:02:17,600 --> 01:02:22,480 I'm concerned that that's a a trend and has something to do 1013 01:02:22,480 --> 01:02:26,680 with Dobbins the player and not just, you know, random noise 1014 01:02:26,680 --> 01:02:28,520 from week to week. What are your thoughts on that? 1015 01:02:29,720 --> 01:02:32,040 Yeah. So obviously you started off 1016 01:02:32,040 --> 01:02:39,280 very efficiently and then now and over the last four weeks, 1017 01:02:39,480 --> 01:02:43,000 well, it's looks like it's the the the Chargers had to buy, 1018 01:02:43,000 --> 01:02:47,560 right? Church had a buy in week 5, yes. 1019 01:02:47,760 --> 01:02:49,720 It's, I guess it's, this is the last three weeks. 1020 01:02:51,840 --> 01:02:58,880 So he's been over the last three weeks he's been negative 1/2 so 1021 01:02:58,880 --> 01:03:06,080 -0.5 FPO over expected per game. And so like to me that's, that's 1022 01:03:06,080 --> 01:03:12,360 kind of neutral. I think like I'll take the I'll 1023 01:03:12,360 --> 01:03:16,160 I'll, I'll, I'll put some stock into that three-week average. 1024 01:03:16,920 --> 01:03:21,000 And the trend as you kind of noticed, noted the trend clearly 1025 01:03:21,000 --> 01:03:24,160 down. And so it some quest, there is 1026 01:03:24,160 --> 01:03:32,360 some question about where that bottoms out and where does it? 1027 01:03:33,000 --> 01:03:39,560 Yeah, where does the bottom out? I, I, I, I don't, I don't know. 1028 01:03:39,880 --> 01:03:42,720 And. Certainly not excited to play 1029 01:03:42,720 --> 01:03:44,520 him against the Browns this week. 1030 01:03:45,040 --> 01:03:48,280 No, but again, like, if you're in redraft, you're just starting 1031 01:03:48,280 --> 01:03:50,640 him cuz you're gonna get all, you're getting all the volume. 1032 01:03:50,640 --> 01:03:53,400 And so it's, it's like whatever, you're just, you're gonna, 1033 01:03:53,920 --> 01:03:56,880 you're gonna happily ho hum your way to, you know, 8 to 12 1034 01:03:56,880 --> 01:03:58,960 fantasy points there. You're you're just hoping he 1035 01:03:58,960 --> 01:04:02,280 falls in the end zone. Right, right. 1036 01:04:02,280 --> 01:04:04,840 He's not, he's not, he's not a priority. 1037 01:04:05,080 --> 01:04:06,960 I think he's probably like in dog bowl stuff. 1038 01:04:06,960 --> 01:04:09,280 He's probably like a a desperation play. 1039 01:04:09,280 --> 01:04:12,320 He's not the worst. Oh, I missed all the guys I 1040 01:04:12,320 --> 01:04:15,440 normally target. And when I get into this 1041 01:04:15,440 --> 01:04:20,760 situation, like I'll I'll take a shot on JK Dobbins because 1042 01:04:20,760 --> 01:04:22,520 because you do have that cheap volume. 1043 01:04:24,400 --> 01:04:28,320 Yeah, but I'm looking to find his ADP here. 1044 01:04:28,320 --> 01:04:32,080 So yeah, he goes right at the end of the fourth round. 1045 01:04:32,080 --> 01:04:37,680 So he's he's 4-5 turn, but he he does sometimes go like in the 1046 01:04:37,680 --> 01:04:40,720 very last couple picks of the draft, he might go undrafted 1047 01:04:40,720 --> 01:04:43,400 some. So he's. 1048 01:04:43,640 --> 01:04:46,520 Yeah. And so he had, we started off 13 1049 01:04:46,520 --> 01:04:49,400 over expected points over expected 10.7. 1050 01:04:49,400 --> 01:04:55,000 That was minus .4 -, 5.20 negative 1 1/2 zero. 1051 01:04:55,760 --> 01:04:59,440 And yeah, that that feels like you're getting getting somebody 1052 01:04:59,440 --> 01:05:03,360 who's pretty close to neutral and the the Browns defense 1053 01:05:03,360 --> 01:05:08,200 definitely scares you off where? To. 1054 01:05:08,680 --> 01:05:11,760 See how they're able to effectively establish an older 1055 01:05:11,760 --> 01:05:14,000 back like that against a tough defense. 1056 01:05:14,640 --> 01:05:17,560 Let me ask you about a couple running backs compared to 1057 01:05:17,560 --> 01:05:19,920 Dobbins this week, just straight up. 1058 01:05:20,520 --> 01:05:26,760 So Dobbins versus James Conner, where Connor gets the Bears 1059 01:05:26,760 --> 01:05:32,240 here. And that that feels like you 1060 01:05:32,480 --> 01:05:36,440 probably, you'd probably do James Conner where he has to be 1061 01:05:36,440 --> 01:05:40,920 a key player for them and for them to kind of get going, they 1062 01:05:40,920 --> 01:05:42,280 they need James Connor to get going. 1063 01:05:42,680 --> 01:05:46,440 Dobbins versus Chuba Hubbard where Chuba gets the really weak 1064 01:05:46,440 --> 01:05:56,200 Saints run defense. And it's probably that that's 1065 01:05:56,200 --> 01:06:00,720 that feels really close. And I'd probably be do Chuba, 1066 01:06:01,560 --> 01:06:04,000 probably Chuba. Yeah, I think I'm, I think I had 1067 01:06:04,000 --> 01:06:08,360 Chuba as well here. OK, one, one other note that we 1068 01:06:08,360 --> 01:06:13,120 have to talk about that you had here was on Tyrone Tracy and the 1069 01:06:13,160 --> 01:06:15,680 split that he had with Devin Singletary. 1070 01:06:16,160 --> 01:06:20,520 I mean, it was about a 6040 split like you mentioned. 1071 01:06:20,920 --> 01:06:24,520 But my goodness, if Tracy did not look like the far superior 1072 01:06:24,520 --> 01:06:26,880 player he was. He was absolutely electric. 1073 01:06:26,920 --> 01:06:30,320 I'll just try to have a cannon. And then Singletary looked a lot 1074 01:06:30,320 --> 01:06:35,360 more pedestrian. Yeah, the the one, it's not even 1075 01:06:35,360 --> 01:06:37,920 a knock on Tracy, but the one thing I noticed just from 1076 01:06:37,920 --> 01:06:42,560 watching him is he was he was playing a lot bigger than he 1077 01:06:42,600 --> 01:06:46,000 like he was running through guys, he's breaking tackles. 1078 01:06:46,320 --> 01:06:48,800 But there were a couple times, like there was a shot where they 1079 01:06:48,800 --> 01:06:52,760 showed him going to the sideline and taking a breather after a a 1080 01:06:53,160 --> 01:06:55,720 series of plays where he was just putting the team on his 1081 01:06:55,720 --> 01:06:59,320 back, just doing doing the most for them. 1082 01:07:00,120 --> 01:07:03,640 And he is absolutely gassed on the sideline. 1083 01:07:03,640 --> 01:07:07,960 Like he is just dying on the sideline with, I mean, the guy 1084 01:07:07,960 --> 01:07:10,920 was having a, you know, career performance. 1085 01:07:12,000 --> 01:07:15,440 But I, I wonder if they they probably need to keep this 1086 01:07:15,960 --> 01:07:20,200 closer to like 5050 or at the very least, like even if they 1087 01:07:20,200 --> 01:07:24,560 keep it 6040, like the amount of volume that they put on Tracy's 1088 01:07:24,560 --> 01:07:27,640 plate. I don't know if it can, can be, 1089 01:07:27,920 --> 01:07:30,320 you know, sustained at the level that he got here. 1090 01:07:30,600 --> 01:07:33,240 Sure would be fun because he's a he's an awesome player. 1091 01:07:35,120 --> 01:07:38,320 And now the other really interesting thing, he does leave 1092 01:07:38,320 --> 01:07:42,920 the game with a concussion. So you get Singletary and and 1093 01:07:42,920 --> 01:07:45,440 Eric Gray will be involved, but I, I would assume that 1094 01:07:45,440 --> 01:07:49,400 Singletary is back on his bullshit this week with, you 1095 01:07:49,400 --> 01:07:53,840 know, just totally. No, he he has to dominate the 1096 01:07:53,840 --> 01:07:56,880 touches this week. And they they get the commanders 1097 01:07:57,160 --> 01:07:59,480 poor run defense. So what do you what? 1098 01:07:59,480 --> 01:08:02,320 What's singletary? Or or JK Dobbins? 1099 01:08:04,560 --> 01:08:07,280 I, I, I have to, I have to pick singletary. 1100 01:08:07,720 --> 01:08:11,240 So yeah, you've kind of you like when you see all those utter 1101 01:08:12,280 --> 01:08:15,120 cheap volume plays. JK Dobbins doesn't look actually 1102 01:08:15,120 --> 01:08:19,040 that peeling like I I prefer a lot of those guys to Dobbins. 1103 01:08:19,800 --> 01:08:23,479 Yeah, yeah, I I've been pretty interested in Singletary. 1104 01:08:23,479 --> 01:08:25,200 He goes undrafted in the dog bowls. 1105 01:08:25,200 --> 01:08:28,600 I'm the only person who has drafted him so far in any of the 1106 01:08:28,600 --> 01:08:30,399 rooms that I am in. So wow. 1107 01:08:32,439 --> 01:08:34,279 So there, there's there's your bit of alpha. 1108 01:08:34,279 --> 01:08:37,640 Go fuck up my unknown Devon Singletary play, you bastards. 1109 01:08:39,960 --> 01:08:43,080 OK, the other the other backfield split where we've got 1110 01:08:43,080 --> 01:08:47,319 a fun back and a less fun back. Not to say anything bad about 1111 01:08:47,319 --> 01:08:49,479 Devin Singletary. I really like Devin Singletary 1112 01:08:49,479 --> 01:08:53,560 and I I think he's a better player than this other boring 1113 01:08:53,560 --> 01:08:54,439 back that we're going to talk about. 1114 01:08:54,439 --> 01:09:00,800 But the Rashad White Bucky Irving stuff now do we have I'm 1115 01:09:00,800 --> 01:09:02,960 looking for Bucky. I don't think he's on this 1116 01:09:03,000 --> 01:09:04,479 efficiency. Oh no, he is there he is. 1117 01:09:04,479 --> 01:09:06,960 He's right next to Romandre Stevenson, Chuba Hubbard. 1118 01:09:07,240 --> 01:09:10,560 So he's right in the middle here in that 10 to 15 expected 1119 01:09:10,560 --> 01:09:14,760 fantasy point band. So the encouraging stuff for 1120 01:09:14,760 --> 01:09:17,760 Bucky is he's getting more involved in the passing game, 1121 01:09:18,160 --> 01:09:21,800 which seems that's kind of like a logical conclusion that we 1122 01:09:21,800 --> 01:09:24,000 could make given the injuries to the receivers. 1123 01:09:24,520 --> 01:09:29,240 Glad to see him starting to wrestle some of that away from 1124 01:09:29,520 --> 01:09:31,920 Rashon White. But Rashon White does not look 1125 01:09:31,920 --> 01:09:35,920 like he's going away it it. It does look like Sean Tucker is 1126 01:09:35,920 --> 01:09:39,240 going to be the one that's going to fade back into fantasy 1127 01:09:39,240 --> 01:09:43,000 irrelevance here. Yeah, the way I'm looking at it 1128 01:09:43,000 --> 01:09:46,439 is that White and Bucky Irving are Co starters. 1129 01:09:47,240 --> 01:09:54,320 Yeah, I like, I think, I think if I bet for Bucky Irving to 1130 01:09:54,880 --> 01:09:58,840 lead the team in carries the rest of the way, it definitely 1131 01:09:58,840 --> 01:10:02,000 looks like he's making it encouraging that he's making a 1132 01:10:02,000 --> 01:10:06,640 lot closer on routes. And then I also see that Irving 1133 01:10:06,640 --> 01:10:10,160 he's getting, he's starting to pick up some pass blocking snaps 1134 01:10:10,320 --> 01:10:14,800 assignments. And so that's that to me that 1135 01:10:14,800 --> 01:10:18,920 erode some of White's kind of like pass protector Moat. 1136 01:10:19,800 --> 01:10:23,600 And so I, I think, I think, I think that that's some pretty 1137 01:10:23,920 --> 01:10:26,760 encouraging stuff that Berkeley Irving's role is here to stay. 1138 01:10:27,400 --> 01:10:32,880 But I I agree with you where I am, I think White's going to 1139 01:10:32,880 --> 01:10:34,280 hang on to what he has right now. 1140 01:10:35,560 --> 01:10:42,400 Yeah, Let's go to the next running back efficiency chart 1141 01:10:42,400 --> 01:10:50,720 here, man. I mean, Joe Mixon probably just 1142 01:10:50,920 --> 01:10:55,040 by process of elimination has to keep this, this role going, 1143 01:10:55,040 --> 01:10:57,920 right? Steph Diggs dead out for the 1144 01:10:57,920 --> 01:11:01,280 season now. You know, I mean, Joe Nixon 1145 01:11:01,280 --> 01:11:03,280 looks good. Yeah, he hates India, but he 1146 01:11:03,280 --> 01:11:06,320 does. Yeah, he he's a really strong 1147 01:11:06,320 --> 01:11:09,880 play going forward. They're not on the main slate, 1148 01:11:09,880 --> 01:11:12,160 obviously. They are on the showdown 1149 01:11:12,360 --> 01:11:17,040 Thursday night slate this week. So they do get The Jets. 1150 01:11:17,040 --> 01:11:21,040 I believe it is, yes. I would. 1151 01:11:21,080 --> 01:11:25,680 I would expect this to be a disgusting game where with very 1152 01:11:25,680 --> 01:11:29,680 little play volume, you're you're dealing with slow Aaron 1153 01:11:29,680 --> 01:11:34,200 Rodgers, who wants to take all of the play clock down to 0 just 1154 01:11:34,200 --> 01:11:37,640 to show us how smart he is because he's absolutely 1155 01:11:37,640 --> 01:11:40,280 diagnosing and dissecting everything the defense is going 1156 01:11:40,280 --> 01:11:42,480 to do. He needs every last second of 1157 01:11:42,480 --> 01:11:44,640 that because The Sims are in his head. 1158 01:11:45,360 --> 01:11:50,240 And then you have the Texans who kind of seem like they just 1159 01:11:50,240 --> 01:11:52,680 don't really don't really want to throw the ball. 1160 01:11:53,280 --> 01:11:56,320 I mean, it makes sense that without Nico they're a little 1161 01:11:56,320 --> 01:11:58,800 less pass happy. But I mean, even with Nico they 1162 01:11:58,800 --> 01:12:00,080 they still were pretty run heavy. 1163 01:12:00,080 --> 01:12:04,000 So I I would expect this Thursday night game to be an 1164 01:12:04,000 --> 01:12:07,160 absolute slog. You're probably just going to 1165 01:12:07,160 --> 01:12:10,280 get a couple teams that want to run the ball over and over in 1166 01:12:10,280 --> 01:12:11,560 each bases. So. 1167 01:12:11,560 --> 01:12:13,720 You really need The Jets to get stuff going. 1168 01:12:14,840 --> 01:12:17,600 As of right now, it's, it's hard to see them get stuff going. 1169 01:12:17,640 --> 01:12:20,600 I, I think they certainly can. I, I think you certainly could 1170 01:12:20,600 --> 01:12:24,040 get that outcome where The Jets push the Texans a little bit. 1171 01:12:25,240 --> 01:12:28,920 And but yeah, it it, it, it's, it doesn't feel great. 1172 01:12:30,160 --> 01:12:33,840 Yeah. Your last note on running back 1173 01:12:33,840 --> 01:12:37,960 that you had here, I don't believe there's a guy that is on 1174 01:12:38,120 --> 01:12:41,720 this chart, but it's it's Rico Dowdell. 1175 01:12:41,720 --> 01:12:44,960 So there was some really interesting stuff surrounding 1176 01:12:44,960 --> 01:12:47,320 the Cowboys this week. Let's see if we can find them 1177 01:12:47,320 --> 01:12:49,840 here. I mean, Zeke Elliott's all the 1178 01:12:49,840 --> 01:12:52,080 way down here. Just barely above 5 expected 1179 01:12:52,080 --> 01:12:55,280 fancy points per game, and the Dalvin Cook's even lower than 1180 01:12:55,280 --> 01:12:58,920 that. But yeah, just so so everybody's 1181 01:12:58,920 --> 01:13:00,680 with us. You heard you heard some 1182 01:13:00,680 --> 01:13:04,320 conspiracy theories last week about the Cowboys running backs. 1183 01:13:04,800 --> 01:13:07,360 Yeah, so Dowdle, for anyone looking for him on the chart is 1184 01:13:07,360 --> 01:13:10,200 dead center right next to that Romandre Stevenson, Bucky 1185 01:13:10,200 --> 01:13:13,040 Irving, Shuba Hubbard cluster right smack dab in the middle 1186 01:13:13,040 --> 01:13:15,440 between 10 and 15 expected fantasy points a game. 1187 01:13:15,440 --> 01:13:19,280 So and I would say he's that's that's a pretty apartment 1188 01:13:20,200 --> 01:13:22,800 landing spot for him for what you're you're thinking you're 1189 01:13:22,800 --> 01:13:25,160 going to get out of him just kind of like that low end 1190 01:13:25,160 --> 01:13:28,440 running back to high end running back three type production. 1191 01:13:29,000 --> 01:13:34,080 The Rico Dowdle rumor mill was that the Cowboys always had 1192 01:13:34,080 --> 01:13:38,280 wanted to elevate Dalvin Cook off the practice squad coming 1193 01:13:38,280 --> 01:13:44,560 out of there by and they were not willing to make Zeke a 1194 01:13:44,800 --> 01:13:50,080 healthy scratch due to, you know, organizational loyalty to 1195 01:13:50,080 --> 01:13:54,120 Zeke or, you know, wanting to protect Zeke's ego or, or what 1196 01:13:54,120 --> 01:13:57,880 have you. But allegedly Rico Dowdle was 1197 01:13:58,120 --> 01:14:01,480 was not actually sick or if he was sick, it was not actually 1198 01:14:01,480 --> 01:14:04,240 something that was going to make him miss the game. 1199 01:14:04,320 --> 01:14:08,480 And the Cowboys, you know, essentially chose that. 1200 01:14:08,480 --> 01:14:11,600 Hey, sorry Rico, you're going to have to sit because Zeke can't 1201 01:14:11,600 --> 01:14:15,640 stand and and we do want to see what we have in Dalvin Cook. 1202 01:14:15,640 --> 01:14:18,000 So that's pretty concerning to me. 1203 01:14:18,000 --> 01:14:19,760 I don't think it's something that continues. 1204 01:14:19,760 --> 01:14:21,480 Because I don't believe that it's so bad. 1205 01:14:21,480 --> 01:14:26,520 I don't believe that I don't. I if, if they, if they were 1206 01:14:26,520 --> 01:14:29,800 doing that, if that was their plan to get a look at Dolphin 1207 01:14:29,800 --> 01:14:32,960 Cook, I think they would have given him more snaps. 1208 01:14:33,400 --> 01:14:34,800 I think they would have played him more. 1209 01:14:35,320 --> 01:14:38,760 This feels like a little bit more like their main player, 1210 01:14:38,760 --> 01:14:43,480 Rico Dowdell, or their main back was down was next man up in Zeke 1211 01:14:43,480 --> 01:14:45,720 Elliott. And then the Alvin Cook kind of 1212 01:14:45,720 --> 01:14:49,000 filled in as needed the rest of the way. 1213 01:14:49,480 --> 01:14:56,680 Like, and maybe, maybe I'm expecting too much logic from 1214 01:14:56,680 --> 01:15:01,000 the from the Cowboys, but I would have thought that if the 1215 01:15:01,000 --> 01:15:05,040 idea was to get a peek at Alvin Cook, they'd play them more. 1216 01:15:07,320 --> 01:15:12,080 Yeah, I, I just, I've unfortunately been subjected to 1217 01:15:12,080 --> 01:15:15,600 enough Cowboys bullshit in my life to, to kind of be able to 1218 01:15:15,600 --> 01:15:21,560 smell it when when I see it. And I mean, I initially was was 1219 01:15:21,640 --> 01:15:25,560 a little suspicious of the Rico Dowdle is sick here coming 1220 01:15:25,560 --> 01:15:29,600 coming off the bye sick, sick enough to miss the game too. 1221 01:15:29,600 --> 01:15:32,840 Like, think about think about what most of these players are 1222 01:15:32,840 --> 01:15:34,960 playing through. Like Kenneth Walker's like 1223 01:15:34,960 --> 01:15:38,120 puking his guts up out there on the field when he was sick after 1224 01:15:38,120 --> 01:15:41,040 his birthday. You know, whatever he was doing 1225 01:15:41,040 --> 01:15:43,560 in Atlanta. And and the guy's still out 1226 01:15:43,560 --> 01:15:46,360 there playing like Devo Samuel is playing through the game 1227 01:15:46,360 --> 01:15:49,840 with, you know, severe pneumonia that he's hospitalized for and 1228 01:15:49,840 --> 01:15:53,600 fluid in his lungs. Like, I'm just saying it takes 1229 01:15:54,160 --> 01:15:57,480 like these are some of the toughest bastards on the face of 1230 01:15:57,480 --> 01:16:00,920 the planet, you know? And, and also like Rico Dowdell 1231 01:16:01,280 --> 01:16:05,120 is not the kind of he's not a player who like is set for life 1232 01:16:05,120 --> 01:16:07,120 by any means. Like Rico Dowdell is getting a 1233 01:16:07,120 --> 01:16:10,520 day job after his stint in the NFL unless he can get a second 1234 01:16:10,520 --> 01:16:13,680 contract. So I mean, unless this guy's on 1235 01:16:13,680 --> 01:16:16,800 death's door, I don't really see him missing a game cuz he's 1236 01:16:16,800 --> 01:16:18,880 sick. It it really. 1237 01:16:18,880 --> 01:16:23,200 And just with all the all the language from the Cowboys about 1238 01:16:23,200 --> 01:16:26,480 Dowling Cook and how he had done everything that he needed to see 1239 01:16:26,480 --> 01:16:31,960 on the like, Oh God, it just it really reeked of, you know, the 1240 01:16:31,960 --> 01:16:36,560 classic Cowboys nepotism like, well, we can't, you know, we 1241 01:16:36,560 --> 01:16:39,520 love Zeke because Zeke is a cowboy for life and we can't 1242 01:16:39,520 --> 01:16:42,760 make him an active. And so Rico, you're just going 1243 01:16:42,760 --> 01:16:46,920 to play second fiddle here. And yeah, that's I, I'm just 1244 01:16:46,920 --> 01:16:48,960 suspicious of that. The The thing is. 1245 01:16:49,200 --> 01:16:51,680 And then there's like videos of him signing autographs. 1246 01:16:51,840 --> 01:16:52,960 Yes. Before the game. 1247 01:16:53,160 --> 01:16:56,760 Yeah, when when Rico walked out, you know, onto the sideline, he 1248 01:16:57,320 --> 01:17:00,040 again, you can't not you're not going to be able to tell just 1249 01:17:00,040 --> 01:17:02,080 from looking at someone on the outside, like if they're sick or 1250 01:17:02,080 --> 01:17:04,040 not. But guy seemed in pretty good 1251 01:17:04,040 --> 01:17:07,160 spirits and didn't didn't look terribly sick to me. 1252 01:17:07,160 --> 01:17:12,040 So I don't know, man, It it it smells smells fishy to me. 1253 01:17:12,200 --> 01:17:16,400 The I think the good news going forward though, is after seeing 1254 01:17:16,720 --> 01:17:19,760 Dalvin Cook in this game, they don't really think that you can 1255 01:17:19,760 --> 01:17:23,120 justify having him be on an active NFL roster anymore. 1256 01:17:23,120 --> 01:17:25,800 I I would hope that. They got their look at what the 1257 01:17:25,800 --> 01:17:29,080 backfield looks like without Rico Dowdell and they didn't 1258 01:17:29,080 --> 01:17:31,200 like it I bet. No, yeah. 1259 01:17:31,200 --> 01:17:34,120 I mean, Rico Dowdell has been described by McCarthy as a 1260 01:17:34,880 --> 01:17:38,680 bowling ball covered in, yeah, bowling ball full of butcher 1261 01:17:38,680 --> 01:17:41,760 knives. And the Zeke Elliott and Dalvin 1262 01:17:41,760 --> 01:17:46,040 Cook backfield looked like a a flat tire full of cotton candy. 1263 01:17:46,040 --> 01:17:49,280 Like, that shit was unwatchable, man. 1264 01:17:49,280 --> 01:17:54,280 The Cowboys continue to do just the inexplicable stuff of like 1265 01:17:54,280 --> 01:17:57,320 wasting it's first and 15. You're down 3 scores. 1266 01:17:57,680 --> 01:17:59,920 Let's hand it off to Dalvin Cook up the middle. 1267 01:17:59,920 --> 01:18:02,600 You know, like just. Right. 1268 01:18:03,160 --> 01:18:06,440 Unserious stuff. I mean you can the whole. 1269 01:18:06,520 --> 01:18:08,480 Should we Should we move on to the tight ends? 1270 01:18:08,600 --> 01:18:09,960 Yeah, let's get to tight ends here. 1271 01:18:12,560 --> 01:18:16,160 So this is our tight end utilization and efficiency chart 1272 01:18:16,800 --> 01:18:21,840 and we kind of we look at who's on the field for for these 1273 01:18:21,840 --> 01:18:24,080 routes. So the green bar that same 1274 01:18:24,600 --> 01:18:26,920 that's the percentage of team dropbacks that they're running a 1275 01:18:26,920 --> 01:18:29,920 route and then more pink bar, that's what they're pass 1276 01:18:29,920 --> 01:18:34,320 blocking. So that we kind of see and so we 1277 01:18:34,320 --> 01:18:36,520 paint the full picture of how much are on the field for their 1278 01:18:36,520 --> 01:18:39,720 team's drop backs. And I guess one thing that kind 1279 01:18:39,720 --> 01:18:45,880 of stands out here is Grant Palace, Sottera and with with 1280 01:18:46,040 --> 01:18:50,720 Dallas Goddard's injury, he's been playing pretty strong snaps 1281 01:18:51,080 --> 01:18:58,480 but not not doing a whole lot. Yeah, Calcatera, you know, is 1282 01:18:58,920 --> 01:19:02,360 you could do worse type of guy if you really someone off 1283 01:19:02,360 --> 01:19:04,560 waivers. But the thing that's that's 1284 01:19:04,560 --> 01:19:08,080 tough with Calcaterra is that the Eagles are not throwing the 1285 01:19:08,080 --> 01:19:12,240 ball very much. So you just, you know, you're, 1286 01:19:12,240 --> 01:19:13,880 you're a guy who's who's already. 1287 01:19:13,880 --> 01:19:15,400 Struggling. And these are calorie rats. 1288 01:19:16,160 --> 01:19:17,800 Yeah. These are empty color, low 1289 01:19:17,800 --> 01:19:19,480 calorie rats. Is is what I should say. 1290 01:19:19,480 --> 01:19:20,320 Yeah. Yeah. 1291 01:19:20,320 --> 01:19:23,160 So it's low calorie route, it's coupled with not a ton of them. 1292 01:19:23,160 --> 01:19:26,440 So that's, that's the problem here, man. 1293 01:19:26,440 --> 01:19:30,400 I I'm the guy who we, we talked about this last week that Kate 1294 01:19:30,400 --> 01:19:34,960 Auten was gonna be in an ascending role and, and again. 1295 01:19:35,040 --> 01:19:36,560 Oh yeah, he's, he's such a smash. 1296 01:19:37,160 --> 01:19:39,600 Yeah, like we talked about it. Balanced in our offense now. 1297 01:19:40,480 --> 01:19:43,600 Yeah, we talked about it in the offseason as well of he's a 1298 01:19:43,600 --> 01:19:45,800 young player. He's had a really high snap 1299 01:19:45,800 --> 01:19:50,240 share for his entire career and and we don't want to just say 1300 01:19:50,240 --> 01:19:53,040 that, you know, this young tight end is never going to be 1301 01:19:53,040 --> 01:19:55,640 anything because he's been a really boring like little rinky 1302 01:19:55,640 --> 01:19:57,400 dink couple targets a game type guy. 1303 01:19:57,600 --> 01:20:00,520 He had a true spike week in the playoffs last year. 1304 01:20:01,080 --> 01:20:04,480 And I think going forward, Kate Auten is like a locked in tight 1305 01:20:04,480 --> 01:20:07,160 end one, at least until you get Mike Evans back. 1306 01:20:07,960 --> 01:20:10,600 But he's he's a smash. I played, I think I had like 1307 01:20:10,840 --> 01:20:14,680 something absurd like 70% Kate Auten in DFS this last week. 1308 01:20:15,280 --> 01:20:16,880 And that that certainly paid off. 1309 01:20:17,120 --> 01:20:20,400 But he he's a smash going forward there. 1310 01:20:20,560 --> 01:20:23,080 There is another guy that actually fits into this 1311 01:20:23,080 --> 01:20:28,400 ascension archetype that Kate Auten got last week and that's 1312 01:20:28,400 --> 01:20:31,920 Evan Ingram. I mean, when it comes to Evan 1313 01:20:31,920 --> 01:20:35,520 Ingram, time is a flat circle. You know, you, you end up with 1314 01:20:35,520 --> 01:20:39,560 the Jags wide receiver core getting decimated by injuries. 1315 01:20:40,000 --> 01:20:44,080 And I would assume that we're going to see what happened last 1316 01:20:44,080 --> 01:20:46,800 year when that when we saw that and Evan Ingram's going to step 1317 01:20:46,800 --> 01:20:48,560 up and, and fill that target void. 1318 01:20:49,440 --> 01:20:53,400 I mean, the guy is is definitely good enough to earn the volume, 1319 01:20:53,600 --> 01:20:58,840 you know, when the competition dwindles like he can, he can 1320 01:20:58,840 --> 01:21:03,440 fill a lot of the target pie. He had a a pretty spectacular 1321 01:21:03,440 --> 01:21:04,760 catch too. I don't know if you got to watch 1322 01:21:04,760 --> 01:21:08,440 this game. Absolutely Moss some guys in the 1323 01:21:08,480 --> 01:21:10,680 end zone. I it was literally 3 Packers 1324 01:21:10,680 --> 01:21:14,920 defenders and Evan Ingram and he might as well have been covered 1325 01:21:14,920 --> 01:21:17,600 by nobody with how easy he made that catch look like. 1326 01:21:17,960 --> 01:21:21,320 He's a good athlete. I think the the A dot is more a 1327 01:21:21,320 --> 01:21:24,480 function of his role than anything reflective of his 1328 01:21:24,480 --> 01:21:28,960 skill. He's always been a low adot like 1329 01:21:29,000 --> 01:21:32,200 guy, but the the main thing he's getting the targets. 1330 01:21:32,600 --> 01:21:36,320 I mean, yeah, but the the tricky thing with like saying something 1331 01:21:36,320 --> 01:21:38,840 like he's always been a low adot guy is he played for the 1332 01:21:38,840 --> 01:21:44,080 feckless Giants with like Evan Ingram never played with a good 1333 01:21:44,080 --> 01:21:47,520 quarterback in his entire career or, or an offense that was going 1334 01:21:47,520 --> 01:21:49,920 to deploy him in a a role that would be more fun. 1335 01:21:49,920 --> 01:21:54,000 Like he played for the Giants when they had like, I believe he 1336 01:21:54,000 --> 01:21:59,240 got the very, very tail end of, of Eli's career when Eli was 1337 01:21:59,240 --> 01:22:02,240 just like, you know, they, they were about to take him out 1338 01:22:02,240 --> 01:22:05,160 behind the barn. And then also you got the 1339 01:22:05,160 --> 01:22:08,160 beginning of Daniel Jones career, which was not great. 1340 01:22:09,440 --> 01:22:13,520 And and so you get, you get him operating in in these roles, 1341 01:22:13,520 --> 01:22:14,840 he's like low. I mean, we're not. 1342 01:22:14,840 --> 01:22:17,280 We don't need to make that excuse for Brock Burrows. 1343 01:22:19,840 --> 01:22:22,360 But but you get this. You get this out of necessity 1344 01:22:22,360 --> 01:22:24,040 for Evan Ingram, I think more than anything. 1345 01:22:24,040 --> 01:22:27,320 And so, and that's not to say the role's going to change now, 1346 01:22:27,320 --> 01:22:30,200 like the role's still going to be this low A dot guy. 1347 01:22:30,800 --> 01:22:34,280 I just, I don't think we want to like use the low A dot to write 1348 01:22:34,280 --> 01:22:36,800 him off as a talent and say, oh, it's, it's just going to be this 1349 01:22:36,800 --> 01:22:41,720 like, and granted, he, he didn't do a ton with yak. 1350 01:22:41,720 --> 01:22:45,080 Like he's going to get great yak because he has low A dot. 1351 01:22:45,080 --> 01:22:47,760 But like even then it was a little uninspiring last year. 1352 01:22:48,200 --> 01:22:51,000 You're probably going to get the same stuff this year just 1353 01:22:51,000 --> 01:22:53,640 because, I mean, when Brian Thomas gets back, maybe it helps 1354 01:22:53,640 --> 01:22:55,720 him a little bit actually because he can still absorb some 1355 01:22:55,720 --> 01:22:58,800 of the target share, but have someone to take some attention 1356 01:22:58,800 --> 01:23:02,120 from the defense away. Anyway, all that that's a really 1357 01:23:02,120 --> 01:23:05,040 long way of saying I think Evan Ingram's a smash going forward. 1358 01:23:06,160 --> 01:23:09,760 I mean, he he's like a locked in top six, top seven tight end 1359 01:23:09,760 --> 01:23:13,120 rest of the season for me now. Yeah, Yeah, he definitely is. 1360 01:23:14,880 --> 01:23:18,640 I guess that the the concern is always like what Evan Ingram is 1361 01:23:18,640 --> 01:23:22,320 like you, you have that secure volume and you do have a secure 1362 01:23:22,320 --> 01:23:28,920 volume. But it is I think it's still, 1363 01:23:28,920 --> 01:23:32,600 it's still a question is like, is he one of the best tight ends 1364 01:23:32,600 --> 01:23:37,880 in the NFL? I, I, I, I don't, I don't think 1365 01:23:37,880 --> 01:23:41,880 he is. So when you compare, when you 1366 01:23:41,880 --> 01:23:45,800 compare where he was going in ADP this drafts, he was going 1367 01:23:45,800 --> 01:23:51,280 next to George Kittle, who is one of the best, who might be 1368 01:23:51,280 --> 01:23:55,960 the best tight end in the NFL. So I, I, I, I think that's some, 1369 01:23:56,000 --> 01:23:58,240 some somewhere that the question mark on talent. 1370 01:23:58,240 --> 01:24:02,200 I think he's clearly like an, an NFL, like strong, a strong NFL 1371 01:24:02,200 --> 01:24:04,600 player. But I think it's a, it's 1372 01:24:04,600 --> 01:24:09,000 definitely a a questionable this a big question mark on if he's 1373 01:24:09,240 --> 01:24:15,160 one of the best NFL players and and you've always have to pay 1374 01:24:15,160 --> 01:24:17,040 like a pretty high price for him. 1375 01:24:18,360 --> 01:24:20,360 Yeah, that's, that's reasonable. Yeah. 1376 01:24:20,480 --> 01:24:23,720 I, I, I was just more so thinking of the, the outlook 1377 01:24:23,720 --> 01:24:26,280 going forward for Evan Ingram is very strong. 1378 01:24:27,000 --> 01:24:29,080 Yeah, yeah. Like you said, top top seven, 1379 01:24:29,080 --> 01:24:32,560 top 8 and like pretty secure for. 1380 01:24:33,160 --> 01:24:40,160 Yeah, 11 last guy, 022 quick notes on this chart, David and 1381 01:24:40,160 --> 01:24:43,880 Joku. I mean, incredible upgrade is 1382 01:24:43,880 --> 01:24:47,440 from the quarterback standpoint, getting Jameis Winston continued 1383 01:24:47,440 --> 01:24:50,280 to build on a strong last couple of weeks. 1384 01:24:50,320 --> 01:24:53,560 I I think he's a really strong play going forward. 1385 01:24:54,920 --> 01:24:58,920 I'm, I'm just going to like shoot through these really quick 1386 01:24:58,920 --> 01:24:59,960 before you go on to the next one. 1387 01:24:59,960 --> 01:25:04,200 Sam Laporta sees a big target increase with Jameson out. 1388 01:25:04,440 --> 01:25:05,880 That was super encouraging to me. 1389 01:25:05,880 --> 01:25:09,640 I wasn't certain that it would materialize as much as it did, 1390 01:25:10,640 --> 01:25:14,040 but it definitely looks like his role might be revitalized as 1391 01:25:14,040 --> 01:25:21,800 long as Jameson is a waste. Yeah, yeah, we I had that noted 1392 01:25:21,800 --> 01:25:25,400 this kind of somewhere we got the like we there's still a 1393 01:25:25,400 --> 01:25:28,800 chance that it might be like a one week blip that like he just 1394 01:25:28,800 --> 01:25:30,680 happened to be more involved with the game plan this week. 1395 01:25:32,440 --> 01:25:35,560 But something to keep an eye out if we get another week of that 1396 01:25:36,000 --> 01:25:37,880 maybe maybe we're we're firing ass. 1397 01:25:37,880 --> 01:25:40,320 I'm afford to back up again. We're we're we're re lighting 1398 01:25:40,320 --> 01:25:45,600 the kennels. Yeah, last last one I wanted to 1399 01:25:45,600 --> 01:25:48,280 touch on. Dalton Kincaid gets in the end 1400 01:25:48,280 --> 01:25:52,160 zone this week, but man, every week feels like the same thing 1401 01:25:52,160 --> 01:25:54,640 for Dalton Kincaid. It's like 5 targets, 6 targets, 1402 01:25:54,640 --> 01:25:59,600 7 targets, 7 targets, 6 targets. And it's just all such short 1403 01:26:00,000 --> 01:26:03,680 little rinky dink stuff. And he really does not seem like 1404 01:26:03,680 --> 01:26:05,800 he can do anything with the ball in his hands. 1405 01:26:06,160 --> 01:26:10,360 He's like I, I feel like they kind of, he was billed as like 1406 01:26:10,360 --> 01:26:12,120 this. Oh, he's going to get all these 1407 01:26:12,120 --> 01:26:15,440 short, short targets and then rack up the yak like that's, 1408 01:26:15,840 --> 01:26:17,760 that's what he's going to do. Well, his A dot's a little 1409 01:26:17,760 --> 01:26:22,400 deeper this year than it was last year, but he's he's so much 1410 01:26:22,400 --> 01:26:26,000 closer to a catch and fall down guy than than a yak guy. 1411 01:26:27,280 --> 01:26:30,480 And it it just like his floor seems pretty secure. 1412 01:26:30,480 --> 01:26:34,560 But man, getting getting the actual ceiling seems tough. 1413 01:26:34,560 --> 01:26:39,400 Now if we see the bills continue, you know, or not 1414 01:26:39,400 --> 01:26:41,080 continue. But if we see them break their 1415 01:26:41,080 --> 01:26:44,880 early season trend of being really run heavy, I'm more 1416 01:26:44,880 --> 01:26:48,320 interested in Dalton Kincaid. But if they if they're back to 1417 01:26:48,320 --> 01:26:51,640 their old ways, you know, of, of just running the ball and and 1418 01:26:51,640 --> 01:26:55,760 sub 30 attempts a game like Dalton Kincaid is, is not 1419 01:26:55,840 --> 01:26:59,600 terribly exciting. You know, he's just he's a he's 1420 01:26:59,600 --> 01:27:02,800 a decent floor play every week because he's gonna he gets he 1421 01:27:02,800 --> 01:27:04,480 does get a lot of targets every week. 1422 01:27:05,480 --> 01:27:07,520 He. He's a floor play, he's a floor 1423 01:27:07,520 --> 01:27:08,600 player. Your ass kick. 1424 01:27:09,960 --> 01:27:13,000 Like it I think you're you're getting pretty close to the 1425 01:27:13,000 --> 01:27:18,600 Efrain Ingram profile and at least in terms of A dot and and 1426 01:27:18,600 --> 01:27:20,200 and different and different things. 1427 01:27:21,880 --> 01:27:26,800 But the problem is that they don't they they they're not like 1428 01:27:26,800 --> 01:27:29,600 the Jaguars might operate their offense. 1429 01:27:29,800 --> 01:27:33,760 True, Evan Ingram and Brian Thomas like that might that the 1430 01:27:37,040 --> 01:27:39,360 there's a possibility that they might do that that's amazing 1431 01:27:39,360 --> 01:27:41,800 offense. And but there's that that that 1432 01:27:41,800 --> 01:27:45,400 that's a possible outcome, whereas there's just no shot. 1433 01:27:45,440 --> 01:27:49,160 There's no chance that the Bills can operate an offense through 1434 01:27:49,160 --> 01:27:54,080 dog KK. Like, just not a hope like that, 1435 01:27:54,520 --> 01:27:58,080 that, that that's not an, an, an, an offense that is just 1436 01:27:58,080 --> 01:28:01,080 trying to run through Dalton Kincaid is not an NFL quality 1437 01:28:01,080 --> 01:28:05,280 offense. Yeah, let's, let's move on to 1438 01:28:05,280 --> 01:28:07,600 the second chart because we got a question in the chat that said 1439 01:28:07,600 --> 01:28:09,800 I think you forgot Mark Andrews on this graphic. 1440 01:28:09,800 --> 01:28:12,880 Nope, we didn't. He's just still here on this 30 1441 01:28:12,880 --> 01:28:17,240 to 60% of routes run now. As a note, his snap share did 1442 01:28:17,240 --> 01:28:20,320 increase this week as his highest snap share of the 1443 01:28:20,320 --> 01:28:25,760 season, all the way up to 74%. Yeah, he had a 74% route share, 1444 01:28:26,120 --> 01:28:31,440 79% snap on drop back share last week. 1445 01:28:32,320 --> 01:28:35,840 And and, and to me, I'm I'm taking that as somewhat signal 1446 01:28:36,080 --> 01:28:40,200 because it followed good play and he actually played 1447 01:28:40,200 --> 01:28:42,240 relatively, he played decently well. 1448 01:28:42,520 --> 01:28:46,480 And with that higher snap share. I like, I don't think we're 1449 01:28:46,480 --> 01:28:48,840 getting old Mark Andrews back anytime soon. 1450 01:28:49,480 --> 01:28:53,880 Like it, it I I just don't think we got that, but I think we are 1451 01:28:53,880 --> 01:28:56,560 getting a much better Mark Andrews than we did at the start 1452 01:28:56,560 --> 01:29:00,840 of the season. Yeah, I I definitely agree. 1453 01:29:00,840 --> 01:29:04,840 It's it seems like it's just hard for Baltimore to put the 1454 01:29:04,840 --> 01:29:06,840 genie back in the bottle with Isaiah Likely. 1455 01:29:06,840 --> 01:29:09,360 I think they just really like having him out on the field, 1456 01:29:11,480 --> 01:29:14,200 regardless of how good Mark Andrews is. 1457 01:29:14,200 --> 01:29:16,640 They played Mark Andrews more than likely this week. 1458 01:29:17,080 --> 01:29:20,240 Yeah, yeah, they they finally did, but I I still think that 1459 01:29:20,240 --> 01:29:22,360 they want to keep likely involved. 1460 01:29:22,360 --> 01:29:26,440 And so that's just gonna that's gonna cap Andrews upside just 1461 01:29:26,440 --> 01:29:29,400 cuz he's not gonna be able to get back to that his old route. 1462 01:29:29,400 --> 01:29:33,760 Share right? Well, it and to me, it's not 1463 01:29:33,760 --> 01:29:37,440 just the right share, it's even even with. 1464 01:29:38,280 --> 01:29:44,000 So if I look at the last, if I look at the last four weeks for 1465 01:29:44,080 --> 01:29:48,600 Marc Andrews, he's still only at a 20% target sprout run. 1466 01:29:49,440 --> 01:29:51,600 And so like I, I, I think that's solid. 1467 01:29:51,600 --> 01:29:55,640 That's good. But that is just not normal Marc 1468 01:29:55,640 --> 01:30:00,640 Andrews stuff like normal Marc Andrews is like, Hey, you got to 1469 01:30:00,640 --> 01:30:03,800 get this guy the ball like you need, you need to do that. 1470 01:30:04,560 --> 01:30:08,520 Whereas now it's it's like he's one of the possible options that 1471 01:30:08,520 --> 01:30:11,640 they can get the ball to and it's and it works out pretty 1472 01:30:11,640 --> 01:30:18,160 good. And, and, and I think I think he 1473 01:30:18,160 --> 01:30:21,480 is he, he, he has kind of reclaimed being the starter 1474 01:30:21,480 --> 01:30:26,560 ahead of likely and just in terms of his route share. 1475 01:30:26,560 --> 01:30:30,520 And like they target him more like they, they get the ball to 1476 01:30:30,520 --> 01:30:32,880 Mark Andrews down the field. More than likely. 1477 01:30:34,320 --> 01:30:37,920 They've been if you look at like kind of like the last four 1478 01:30:37,920 --> 01:30:40,280 games, they've been more successful in doing that. 1479 01:30:41,000 --> 01:30:44,840 And but it's it's, it's certainly not old Mark Andrews, 1480 01:30:44,840 --> 01:30:48,800 unfortunately. Yeah, yeah. 1481 01:30:48,960 --> 01:30:51,040 I don't think we're going to get old Mark Andrews, but we 1482 01:30:51,040 --> 01:30:55,120 definitely could still get a a very strong tight end profile 1483 01:30:55,120 --> 01:30:57,280 for this season. It just won't be old Mark 1484 01:30:57,280 --> 01:31:01,320 Andrews. Yeah, it could be like I think, 1485 01:31:01,320 --> 01:31:05,360 I think you could get you could end the like Tight End 5 or 1486 01:31:05,360 --> 01:31:07,080 Tight End 6 from America Andrews this year. 1487 01:31:09,240 --> 01:31:13,480 Yeah, those are I I don't have any other tight ends. 1488 01:31:13,480 --> 01:31:16,400 I had a note to talk about. Do you do you have anyone else 1489 01:31:16,400 --> 01:31:17,880 or should we move on to the receivers? 1490 01:31:18,560 --> 01:31:22,360 Yeah, that's I, I think we're, I think we're good to move, to 1491 01:31:22,360 --> 01:31:28,880 move on here. Yeah, I think we're good to to 1492 01:31:28,880 --> 01:31:36,680 move on. And so I guess that we have some 1493 01:31:36,680 --> 01:31:41,400 big news here at Deonte that I think we should we should break 1494 01:31:41,400 --> 01:31:46,640 down as part of the show. And but before we get to that, 1495 01:31:48,360 --> 01:31:50,280 I'm looking at this receiver chart. 1496 01:31:50,800 --> 01:31:53,280 The biggest, honestly the biggest, it's not surprise or 1497 01:31:53,280 --> 01:31:59,080 the biggest news to me in the last two weeks has been Garrett 1498 01:31:59,080 --> 01:32:03,200 Wilson kind of maintaining his like target dominant role. 1499 01:32:04,720 --> 01:32:10,320 And let me let me pull up the the actual numbers behind that. 1500 01:32:16,040 --> 01:32:21,040 But we'll toss that once, once Garrett will or once Devante 1501 01:32:21,040 --> 01:32:25,840 would be in town that it would kind of kill Garrett Wilson. 1502 01:32:26,680 --> 01:32:30,200 But if you look at last week, so Garrett Wilson had eight targets 1503 01:32:30,200 --> 01:32:34,480 versus 7 for Devantes and Garrett Wilson 29% targets per 1504 01:32:34,480 --> 01:32:42,800 out run. He had a, he had A20 week. 1505 01:32:43,120 --> 01:32:47,960 So a lot of a lot of air yards there and then four 4.04 yards 1506 01:32:47,960 --> 01:32:54,480 per out run versus 7 targets and 9.38 off for Devante. 1507 01:32:54,880 --> 01:32:57,800 So that that feels like pretty like that doesn't feel like 1508 01:32:57,800 --> 01:32:59,960 vintage Devante at all. That feels like kind of like 1509 01:32:59,960 --> 01:33:02,560 older Vante, second fiddle Devante. 1510 01:33:03,160 --> 01:33:05,160 And to me, I don't know if that's it. 1511 01:33:05,200 --> 01:33:09,720 I'm not necessarily surprised by that, but it's news because 1512 01:33:09,720 --> 01:33:14,640 there was some risk that Garrett Wilson would kind of get phased 1513 01:33:14,640 --> 01:33:19,200 out with with Devante trade. But to me I think that's off the 1514 01:33:19,200 --> 01:33:23,360 table now. Yeah, I think if anything, what 1515 01:33:23,360 --> 01:33:26,680 we'll see is like we might see some quieter games from Garrett 1516 01:33:26,680 --> 01:33:30,400 Wilson when Devante and Rogers are like fully back on the same 1517 01:33:30,400 --> 01:33:33,280 page and and he's been more integrated into the offense. 1518 01:33:33,680 --> 01:33:36,360 But yeah, I think, I think Garrett Wilson's role is. 1519 01:33:36,360 --> 01:33:39,520 You're not getting the 20 targets targets in a game thing 1520 01:33:39,520 --> 01:33:44,360 because they don't have anybody else like they have an outlet in 1521 01:33:44,360 --> 01:33:49,440 in Devante. But I I feel pretty confident 1522 01:33:49,440 --> 01:33:54,840 here dot AM, you're not, you're not, you're not getting this 1523 01:33:54,840 --> 01:33:58,440 outcome where it's vintage Devante linking up with his long 1524 01:33:58,440 --> 01:34:01,920 lost friend Aaron Rodgers and it just cooks Garrett Wilson. 1525 01:34:02,760 --> 01:34:06,520 Right, yeah, I agree with. You Devante Williams, Devante 1526 01:34:06,600 --> 01:34:10,160 Adams is clearly the second fiddle to Garrett Wilson. 1527 01:34:10,240 --> 01:34:14,320 Like, just very clearly like he can't do what Garrett Wilson can 1528 01:34:14,320 --> 01:34:16,960 do at this stage of his career. I don't want to. 1529 01:34:17,960 --> 01:34:21,280 I don't want to get to to that level. 1530 01:34:21,280 --> 01:34:26,240 I I'm, I'm, I'm thinking it's more of like, like we, we still 1531 01:34:26,240 --> 01:34:30,080 might not have seen what Devante's role is going to be on 1532 01:34:30,080 --> 01:34:33,360 this offense or, or that they can trade off back and forth. 1533 01:34:33,360 --> 01:34:36,160 It's only been two games and he got traded mid season. 1534 01:34:36,640 --> 01:34:39,760 So I don't want to say like, oh, it's very clearly that Garrett 1535 01:34:39,760 --> 01:34:43,760 Wilson is the dominant 1. Like I wouldn't be surprised at 1536 01:34:43,760 --> 01:34:47,160 all if we saw a game in the next week or two where Devante 1537 01:34:47,160 --> 01:34:49,040 happens to out target Garrett Wilson. 1538 01:34:49,160 --> 01:34:56,120 You know, 2 to one or something. Yeah, 2 to one, I'd be, I 1539 01:34:56,120 --> 01:34:59,360 wouldn't be surprised if I saw a game where Devante out targeted 1540 01:34:59,360 --> 01:35:05,320 them, but I would be, I'd be surprised if it was by that 1541 01:35:05,320 --> 01:35:09,960 margin. And the big, the big thing that 1542 01:35:09,960 --> 01:35:13,880 surprises me about Devante is that the, the, the targets that 1543 01:35:13,880 --> 01:35:20,640 he's getting are such low A dot. And I, I, I, I don't know, like 1544 01:35:20,960 --> 01:35:25,400 for a player like Devante to be playing with a quarterback like 1545 01:35:25,400 --> 01:35:28,480 Rodgers who controlled down the field to be not getting down the 1546 01:35:28,480 --> 01:35:30,840 field targets, to just be getting the shorter locks. 1547 01:35:31,800 --> 01:35:36,040 Like. That like that, that seems 1548 01:35:36,040 --> 01:35:39,280 pretty telling where and and maybe I'm reading too much into 1549 01:35:39,280 --> 01:35:42,280 it. But if Devante Adams could win 1550 01:35:42,280 --> 01:35:50,680 on a 15 yard and in route like I I I like even even even though 1551 01:35:50,680 --> 01:35:53,080 like he doesn't like he's not fully up to speed on the 1552 01:35:53,080 --> 01:35:55,680 offense. Like I feel like Rogers would be 1553 01:35:55,680 --> 01:35:57,720 feeding on those if he could do that. 1554 01:35:58,240 --> 01:36:00,920 But but maybe I am reading too much into it. 1555 01:36:01,160 --> 01:36:06,640 But I'm, I, I, I, I do feel pretty skeptical that that we're 1556 01:36:06,640 --> 01:36:12,640 going to get old Devon or like I, I, I, I, I vintage Devante 1557 01:36:12,640 --> 01:36:16,520 Adams back here. Yeah, that's, I think that's 1558 01:36:16,520 --> 01:36:19,400 reasonable. I'm just, I'm willing to kind of 1559 01:36:19,400 --> 01:36:21,880 give it a little bit more time since we've only seen two games 1560 01:36:21,880 --> 01:36:24,040 so far. We we should talk about Zay 1561 01:36:24,040 --> 01:36:26,320 Flowers, though. Who's who's near Devante Adams 1562 01:36:26,320 --> 01:36:31,320 on the chart, you know, sitting just right in between 50 and 60% 1563 01:36:31,320 --> 01:36:34,600 weighted targets per route run and how he's going to be 1564 01:36:34,600 --> 01:36:36,800 impacted by the Deante Johnson trade. 1565 01:36:37,560 --> 01:36:40,720 I mean, I think it's pretty bad for Deonte. 1566 01:36:42,120 --> 01:36:44,600 It's also probably pretty bad for Zay Flowers because he 1567 01:36:44,600 --> 01:36:48,160 really was the target dominator in this offense. 1568 01:36:48,160 --> 01:36:51,840 And I mean Deonte Johnson has earned targets. 1569 01:36:53,080 --> 01:36:56,080 If there's ever been an offense that has had Deonte Johnson in 1570 01:36:56,080 --> 01:36:57,840 it, like that guy is earning targets. 1571 01:36:57,840 --> 01:37:02,240 So I think it's it's going to be tough for Zay. 1572 01:37:02,960 --> 01:37:05,360 Not not like it's he's completely dead. 1573 01:37:05,360 --> 01:37:10,160 It's just like these games where he gets 11-12 targets, like I 1574 01:37:10,160 --> 01:37:12,320 think those are going to be a lot harder to come by now. 1575 01:37:13,400 --> 01:37:17,720 And I I really think that mostly what happens is he he sucks up 1576 01:37:17,800 --> 01:37:21,560 Deonte, that is sucks up a lot of the volume from, you know, 1577 01:37:21,560 --> 01:37:25,120 like the Nelson Aguilar and and Rashad Bateman. 1578 01:37:25,120 --> 01:37:28,600 Like I think Bateman is is really going to be hurt by this. 1579 01:37:29,800 --> 01:37:33,240 Yeah, I am. I think, I think that that's 1580 01:37:33,240 --> 01:37:37,320 what happens. I think that Bateman and a 1581 01:37:37,320 --> 01:37:42,760 galore will be those are the guys who get hurt the most. 1582 01:37:45,360 --> 01:37:51,520 And the, the only thing about it is that I do think that by 1583 01:37:51,520 --> 01:37:56,840 replacing targets to a galore and Bateman with targets to 1584 01:37:56,840 --> 01:38:01,800 Deonte, like I think that can help the offense as a whole and 1585 01:38:01,800 --> 01:38:04,040 that that can open things up for say Flowers. 1586 01:38:05,760 --> 01:38:10,280 So I I don't, I don't know that it's like necessarily like as 1587 01:38:10,280 --> 01:38:12,960 big a negative for Zay as as you do. 1588 01:38:13,800 --> 01:38:19,600 And and then the other piece about it is that so just if you 1589 01:38:19,600 --> 01:38:22,720 look at last week, this isn't the full season, but Zay Flowers 1590 01:38:22,720 --> 01:38:28,480 had an 8 out of 17. And so the and then a lot over 1591 01:38:28,480 --> 01:38:31,360 the course of the year, like Bateman's gotten high A dot 1592 01:38:31,360 --> 01:38:34,880 targets as well. So like this offense is an 1593 01:38:34,880 --> 01:38:36,640 offense that wants to throw a deep. 1594 01:38:37,440 --> 01:38:41,480 And so I don't think that Deonte can be that like guy who's going 1595 01:38:41,480 --> 01:38:44,320 to get a tart catch, get a target 20 yards on the field. 1596 01:38:44,600 --> 01:38:48,000 I'm not saying that he can't or that he can't have that he's 1597 01:38:48,000 --> 01:38:51,600 always going to be like a 5A dot guy or that he will be in this 1598 01:38:51,600 --> 01:38:55,760 offense, but he's definitely an underneath to intermediate guy. 1599 01:38:56,080 --> 01:38:59,320 Like that's where he wins. And so I think there's plenty of 1600 01:38:59,320 --> 01:39:04,200 room for Zay flowers on the deeper target stuff and like 12 1601 01:39:04,200 --> 01:39:09,400 targets with A78A dot. And to me that suggests that 1602 01:39:09,400 --> 01:39:12,720 like there's a pretty there's a pretty plentiful room for a down 1603 01:39:12,720 --> 01:39:14,440 the field role for Zay flowers here. 1604 01:39:14,760 --> 01:39:20,200 That and Deonte isn't really in in in in place to touch. 1605 01:39:21,360 --> 01:39:25,400 Yeah, that's, that's reasonable. Yeah. 1606 01:39:25,400 --> 01:39:28,640 I just, this was, was one of the situations where the Ravens were 1607 01:39:28,640 --> 01:39:31,160 having to pass because they were, you know, trying to come 1608 01:39:31,160 --> 01:39:32,560 back. Late, yeah. 1609 01:39:33,200 --> 01:39:37,440 And so I, I think that when you get, when you get the run heavy 1610 01:39:37,440 --> 01:39:40,320 game scripts, which if you look at the Ravens schedule for the 1611 01:39:40,320 --> 01:39:43,440 rest of the season, I think we're in for a lot of them. 1612 01:39:44,200 --> 01:39:46,880 I mean, I, I think that's where you're really in trouble where 1613 01:39:46,880 --> 01:39:49,920 where flowers previously was maybe just going to get enough 1614 01:39:49,920 --> 01:39:52,560 target volume that it was fine even in the run heavy game 1615 01:39:52,560 --> 01:39:54,480 scripts. Maybe he could get there early 1616 01:39:54,480 --> 01:39:56,480 before they started salting the game away. 1617 01:39:57,000 --> 01:40:01,520 But I'm, I'm pretty worried about in those game scripts. 1618 01:40:02,400 --> 01:40:06,920 You know, even even taking 2-3 targets from Flowers is like a 1619 01:40:06,920 --> 01:40:09,160 pretty big hit in those type of game scripts. 1620 01:40:09,160 --> 01:40:12,680 I think we're going to have substantially more of those 1621 01:40:13,320 --> 01:40:16,160 than. Than the more favorable passing 1622 01:40:16,160 --> 01:40:19,880 game scripts as we close out the season here for the Ravens. 1623 01:40:19,880 --> 01:40:23,480 Well, I think he, yeah, I, I don't think he's taken that many 1624 01:40:23,480 --> 01:40:25,960 targets from Flowers. I think he's, I think he's, he's 1625 01:40:25,960 --> 01:40:28,600 taking them from Aguilar and Bateman. 1626 01:40:29,520 --> 01:40:34,880 And then he, like the Ravens, often still does need a down the 1627 01:40:34,880 --> 01:40:39,680 field target. And so I, I like, I don't, I 1628 01:40:39,680 --> 01:40:41,640 don't think Deonte can touch that. 1629 01:40:42,200 --> 01:40:44,680 So I, I, I think that that's still going to be pretty 1630 01:40:44,680 --> 01:40:47,000 important. And for that offense. 1631 01:40:47,000 --> 01:40:50,600 And I think that still runs are, are still, that still has to 1632 01:40:50,600 --> 01:40:53,200 happen. And if Bateman is getting up, 1633 01:40:53,200 --> 01:40:56,920 taken off the field for, for Deonte, then that has to run 1634 01:40:56,920 --> 01:41:00,480 through flowers. Like, I think the talent mode is 1635 01:41:00,480 --> 01:41:06,920 pretty good there. And and and like the upgrade to 1636 01:41:06,920 --> 01:41:10,680 the offense overall kind of like mitigates the the volume hit. 1637 01:41:12,760 --> 01:41:15,680 Yeah, I think that's reasonable. Well, it'll definitely be an 1638 01:41:15,680 --> 01:41:20,160 interesting situation to watch a spot that I think is kind of 1639 01:41:20,160 --> 01:41:22,720 interesting this week. I mean, we talked about this 1640 01:41:22,720 --> 01:41:26,120 offense last week. You were you were excited about 1641 01:41:26,120 --> 01:41:29,600 the Troy Franklin play. I definitely drafted a Troy 1642 01:41:29,600 --> 01:41:32,000 Franklin and Bonex team in the Dog Bowl. 1643 01:41:32,000 --> 01:41:35,560 Just leaning on the huge team total against the terrible 1644 01:41:35,560 --> 01:41:40,320 Carolina Panthers and playing into that game was right. 1645 01:41:40,320 --> 01:41:45,440 Bone Nix was a a fantastic play. They they ran the score up 1646 01:41:45,440 --> 01:41:49,400 against the Panthers and you know, just refused, refused to 1647 01:41:49,400 --> 01:41:52,040 let up even after the Panthers were waving the white flag. 1648 01:41:52,840 --> 01:41:54,720 So there were plenty of fantasy points to be had. 1649 01:41:55,120 --> 01:41:59,200 Unfortunately, none of them for Troy Franklin and quite a lot 1650 01:41:59,360 --> 01:42:03,800 Portland Sutton. So Sutton, it's it's been weird 1651 01:42:03,800 --> 01:42:06,240 because it doesn't seem like he's the best fit for bone Nix. 1652 01:42:06,240 --> 01:42:11,680 There was a lot of you know, I in stealing signals this week, 1653 01:42:12,000 --> 01:42:15,720 Gretsch talked about how apparently Nicks had been having 1654 01:42:15,720 --> 01:42:18,560 trouble like driving the ball down field and he was short 1655 01:42:18,560 --> 01:42:22,240 arming a lot of stuff like had some bad mechanics with 1656 01:42:22,240 --> 01:42:25,640 apparently his footwork that was leading to him short arming a 1657 01:42:25,640 --> 01:42:28,520 bunch of throws. And that was was making it a lot 1658 01:42:28,520 --> 01:42:31,120 more difficult for Courtland Sutton, who had a higher A dot 1659 01:42:31,560 --> 01:42:35,400 to, you know, end up producing this week. 1660 01:42:35,400 --> 01:42:37,120 It seems like he got that together. 1661 01:42:37,760 --> 01:42:42,080 Sutton had what, over over 100 yards, like some something like 1662 01:42:42,080 --> 01:42:43,880 14 targets. Let me, let me pull up the. 1663 01:42:48,640 --> 01:42:51,320 Yeah, my, my Excel sheet that I used to pull this stuff. 1664 01:42:51,360 --> 01:42:55,000 Oh, it, it just uncrashed. He had 150 area yards. 1665 01:42:55,280 --> 01:43:01,160 Yeah, 100 yards on the run, 11 targets. 11 targets, 101 yards. 1666 01:43:01,760 --> 01:43:04,320 Yeah. What's puzzling and what yeah, 1667 01:43:04,320 --> 01:43:08,680 what's puzzling to me about the Troy Franklin thing is that you 1668 01:43:08,680 --> 01:43:13,840 had this multi week trend of routes being up and of like 1669 01:43:13,840 --> 01:43:17,760 strong underlying usage that he played a little bit, got high 1670 01:43:17,760 --> 01:43:20,600 targets and then he was playing more keeping the targets. 1671 01:43:21,440 --> 01:43:27,560 And then and then last week his his snap rate cratered. 1672 01:43:27,680 --> 01:43:32,520 His right rate cratered and and pretty, pretty devastating for 1673 01:43:32,520 --> 01:43:35,760 my for my call there. I, I, I I definitely. 1674 01:43:35,760 --> 01:43:41,000 I got that one wrong and. Now was I, I may be 1675 01:43:41,000 --> 01:43:45,080 misremembering, was Lil Jordan Humphrey, was he injured the 1676 01:43:45,080 --> 01:43:47,600 past couple weeks? I think he. 1677 01:43:47,600 --> 01:43:52,280 And no, I think, well, was he injured? 1678 01:43:53,000 --> 01:43:55,320 And and maybe you're right, maybe that maybe that's what 1679 01:43:55,320 --> 01:44:01,480 what oh, that is am little Jordan Humphrey. 1680 01:44:03,720 --> 01:44:05,200 Yeah, because he was on the field. 1681 01:44:05,280 --> 01:44:12,720 He was on the field quite a bit. I'm trying to find if he was on 1682 01:44:12,720 --> 01:44:16,480 the injury report in previous. He was not injured, OK, he was 1683 01:44:16,480 --> 01:44:21,840 not injured. He, he, he played less and like, 1684 01:44:21,840 --> 01:44:24,320 he played less while Troy Franklin was playing more. 1685 01:44:24,320 --> 01:44:27,840 And then they get they, they bumped them back up to a 52% 1686 01:44:27,840 --> 01:44:30,920 right chair. And really, honestly, really 1687 01:44:30,920 --> 01:44:33,520 baffling. And maybe I should just give up 1688 01:44:33,560 --> 01:44:36,840 trying to interpret Air Broncos receiver usage. 1689 01:44:37,520 --> 01:44:41,080 I mean, I, I kind of want to just go because no one's, no 1690 01:44:41,080 --> 01:44:43,560 one's going to play Sutton this week anyway. 1691 01:44:43,880 --> 01:44:47,160 And you get the Ravens, who are a huge pass funnel, right? 1692 01:44:47,920 --> 01:44:51,200 Yeah, I mean, that makes sense. I kind of just want to go to 1693 01:44:51,200 --> 01:44:55,640 Sutton because it like sure, you've got the you've got the 1694 01:44:55,640 --> 01:44:58,600 wild card factor of like Sean, Sean Payton might just tell you 1695 01:44:58,600 --> 01:45:02,080 to go fuck yourself this week and Courtland Sutton gets 0 1696 01:45:02,080 --> 01:45:05,280 targets for fun like he has this season. 1697 01:45:06,200 --> 01:45:08,400 But. Right. 1698 01:45:08,400 --> 01:45:09,680 And he's done it for Sutton, too. 1699 01:45:10,360 --> 01:45:12,480 Right, yeah, that's, that's what I'm saying like Cortland Sutton 1700 01:45:12,480 --> 01:45:18,360 has has gotten, you know, just totally goosed and like zero 1701 01:45:18,360 --> 01:45:22,640 against the Saints 0 targets just for fun. 1702 01:45:22,640 --> 01:45:28,080 So like it definitely can happen, but I think with that 1703 01:45:28,080 --> 01:45:30,920 volatility, I think people are gonna be scared because they 1704 01:45:30,920 --> 01:45:33,800 just saw him get 0 targets. Like, sure, he put up 100 yards 1705 01:45:33,800 --> 01:45:37,240 on 11 targets this week, but I I don't really think that people 1706 01:45:37,240 --> 01:45:38,760 are excited to play Cortland Sutton. 1707 01:45:38,760 --> 01:45:42,880 So I think it's a pretty good spot for him, honestly. 1708 01:45:42,880 --> 01:45:45,680 Yeah, yeah. That that is a good spot. 1709 01:45:49,000 --> 01:45:52,160 Anyone else that you want to touch on on this chart or should 1710 01:45:52,160 --> 01:45:59,000 we move on to the next one? No, I think, I think we've kind 1711 01:45:59,000 --> 01:46:03,360 of covered it here. Yeah, I think we've kind of 1712 01:46:03,360 --> 01:46:05,560 covered. I guess it's probably worth 1713 01:46:06,560 --> 01:46:10,720 going into where Jackson Smith and jig big like I'm just 1714 01:46:10,840 --> 01:46:12,920 honestly just for myself to look at it. 1715 01:46:13,480 --> 01:46:19,480 So with last, we get a 91% route share hit, 24% targets per out 1716 01:46:19,480 --> 01:46:27,200 run, 2.4 yards per out run, and then seven targets, 69 yards. 1717 01:46:28,160 --> 01:46:36,360 And so in a game where it should have opened up for him, it just 1718 01:46:36,360 --> 01:46:41,520 didn't. And I guess, Sam, I guess what 1719 01:46:41,520 --> 01:46:44,720 you're looking at with GSN is just this like completely 1720 01:46:44,720 --> 01:46:49,240 competent fine possession receivers that that's kind of 1721 01:46:49,240 --> 01:46:55,840 what this feels like. Yeah, yeah, I, I don't know, I 1722 01:46:56,040 --> 01:46:58,600 the, the JSN stuff is definitely frustrating. 1723 01:47:01,160 --> 01:47:03,400 That's another one where I kind of want to go back to the well 1724 01:47:03,400 --> 01:47:06,400 this week, though. I know it sounds crazy, but you, 1725 01:47:06,440 --> 01:47:11,240 you get, you get the Rams. I'm not sure if it, it, it 1726 01:47:11,240 --> 01:47:12,800 sounds like Metcalf might be back. 1727 01:47:12,880 --> 01:47:16,480 And if he is back, like you're going to get JSN entirely off 1728 01:47:16,480 --> 01:47:20,400 the radar. So it might still even be OK if 1729 01:47:20,400 --> 01:47:22,760 he's not back. I do think I just want to go 1730 01:47:22,760 --> 01:47:27,360 back to the well with JSN, you know, lock it just really not 1731 01:47:27,360 --> 01:47:30,600 being as involved as I thought he was going to be this past 1732 01:47:30,600 --> 01:47:32,840 week. I mean, it might have to do with 1733 01:47:33,440 --> 01:47:35,720 kind of the way that they they treated Walker. 1734 01:47:36,080 --> 01:47:41,040 I think they're pretty cognizant of like managing the reps for 1735 01:47:41,040 --> 01:47:44,280 Lockett and also for for Walker. Like for they're really the 1736 01:47:44,280 --> 01:47:47,040 players that are either important or older that they 1737 01:47:47,040 --> 01:47:48,880 like don't want to put a ton of wear and tear on. 1738 01:47:49,520 --> 01:47:52,400 I think they they kind of dial them back after the game got out 1739 01:47:52,400 --> 01:47:55,520 of hand this last week. And so you didn't get as much 1740 01:47:55,520 --> 01:47:58,640 Locket, you know, Walker sat at the end of the game. 1741 01:48:00,840 --> 01:48:04,800 But yeah, I don't know. I'm JSN definitely. 1742 01:48:05,800 --> 01:48:09,680 I think that the hope that he's like this super elite target 1743 01:48:09,680 --> 01:48:13,280 Dominator, that I think the ship sailed there. 1744 01:48:14,080 --> 01:48:16,160 Yeah. So I just just looking at the 1745 01:48:16,160 --> 01:48:22,400 numbers here, Week 8 and Tyler Lockett, he had a 97% route 1746 01:48:22,400 --> 01:48:26,400 share, but just 6% targets per run. 1747 01:48:27,240 --> 01:48:34,680 So that's two targets on what, 29 routes? 1748 01:48:35,440 --> 01:48:40,960 Yeah, 2931 routes. So that, that's that, that 1749 01:48:40,960 --> 01:48:44,560 strikes me as a little, a little odd. 1750 01:48:46,880 --> 01:48:49,640 Yeah, definitely, definitely a little strange there. 1751 01:48:52,080 --> 01:48:56,200 But so I, I, I guess that that's just a player on the downswing, 1752 01:48:56,200 --> 01:49:00,320 right? So like, not not somebody you're 1753 01:49:00,320 --> 01:49:05,280 not worried about about and blocking JSN from from 1754 01:49:05,400 --> 01:49:07,520 dominating targets. It just happened. 1755 01:49:11,680 --> 01:49:13,280 But sorry, I interrupted you. You, you. 1756 01:49:13,360 --> 01:49:16,000 You were moving on. No, yeah, let's let's move on to 1757 01:49:16,000 --> 01:49:18,960 the next next chart here. So there's a couple guys I think 1758 01:49:18,960 --> 01:49:21,240 on this next one that are pretty interesting. 1759 01:49:23,200 --> 01:49:28,600 I mean, so Cooper Cup got pretty overshadowed by puka in in their 1760 01:49:29,120 --> 01:49:33,440 their first weeks back here. I kinda. 1761 01:49:33,480 --> 01:49:36,280 I mean this is a pretty. Great on the field on on inner 1762 01:49:36,280 --> 01:49:38,800 inner perception. Yes, yeah. 1763 01:49:39,200 --> 01:49:41,200 But this is a pretty great spot for Cooper Cup. 1764 01:49:41,680 --> 01:49:45,320 And I don't wanna, I don't wanna immediately assume like, Oh 1765 01:49:45,320 --> 01:49:48,240 yeah, Puka's going to dominate everything going forward. 1766 01:49:48,520 --> 01:49:52,240 I think the most likely thing is that Puka is going to be the one 1767 01:49:52,240 --> 01:49:54,120 earning more targets in a given week. 1768 01:49:54,120 --> 01:49:57,240 But I think Stafford can support them both and. 1769 01:49:58,120 --> 01:50:01,960 So I think that the, the thing, the reason that Cook gets 1770 01:50:02,040 --> 01:50:05,920 overshadowed now is so he actually did get, he did get 8 1771 01:50:05,920 --> 01:50:08,720 targets last week. So 29% target spread run. 1772 01:50:09,000 --> 01:50:12,480 I think he's still an important part of the offence, but is a 1773 01:50:12,480 --> 01:50:17,800 dot has cratered this year. So 7.4 in week 1. 1774 01:50:17,960 --> 01:50:24,120 Now he did get 21 targets in week 1 and 6.7 in in Week 2 1775 01:50:25,080 --> 01:50:28,360 before he left and then 6.8 last week. 1776 01:50:30,400 --> 01:50:35,360 To me, I think you have to be on watch for a player who is kind 1777 01:50:35,360 --> 01:50:39,960 of like at the twilight of their career and and it can still be 1778 01:50:39,960 --> 01:50:43,800 pretty important part of the offense still like they they 1779 01:50:43,800 --> 01:50:46,880 need Cook to play well for the offense to play well and still 1780 01:50:46,880 --> 01:50:48,280 going to have good fantasy weeks. 1781 01:50:48,960 --> 01:50:54,760 But I think it's right that puka, I, I think that's like the 1782 01:50:54,760 --> 01:50:58,400 correct interpretation that puka overshadows cup. 1783 01:51:00,240 --> 01:51:04,360 Yeah, I, I just my, my main point here is just for a single 1784 01:51:04,360 --> 01:51:08,240 week, you know, contests. I I do think that if you're 1785 01:51:08,240 --> 01:51:11,320 getting cup at like a major ownership discount or price 1786 01:51:11,320 --> 01:51:14,800 discount like it's a pretty good spot to attack 'cause I, I think 1787 01:51:14,800 --> 01:51:19,200 you can get these cup nuclear weeks still certainly. 1788 01:51:19,200 --> 01:51:22,440 So I wanted to bring him up. Another guy I wanted to mention 1789 01:51:22,440 --> 01:51:27,640 on this chart that I think is making a case for being one of 1790 01:51:27,640 --> 01:51:30,480 the most talented receivers in football is George Pickens. 1791 01:51:31,720 --> 01:51:34,920 I mean, I, I thought George Pickens was really good coming 1792 01:51:34,920 --> 01:51:37,240 into the season like leaving last season. 1793 01:51:37,440 --> 01:51:39,520 I thought he was good to start this season. 1794 01:51:39,520 --> 01:51:44,000 I just thought the offense was limiting him man. 1795 01:51:44,000 --> 01:51:45,840 He he's still looking incredible. 1796 01:51:45,840 --> 01:51:49,800 I mean the the touchdown that got called back for him was like 1797 01:51:49,920 --> 01:51:54,200 the most BS like touchdown reversal call I've ever seen 1798 01:51:54,520 --> 01:51:59,240 where he taps the same foot twice in the end zone but you 1799 01:51:59,320 --> 01:52:02,320 you must tap both. You have to tap two different 1800 01:52:02,320 --> 01:52:06,560 feet for it to count as a catch. Which during the halftime show, 1801 01:52:06,680 --> 01:52:10,240 Jason Kelsey had a hilarious point that, well, technically, 1802 01:52:11,120 --> 01:52:15,000 by the letter of the law on this rule, you could catch the ball 1803 01:52:15,200 --> 01:52:19,200 with one foot down and then hop on that foot without ever 1804 01:52:19,280 --> 01:52:22,440 touching your second foot to the ground all the way down the 1805 01:52:22,440 --> 01:52:25,440 field for 50 yards and then hop out of bounds and it's not a 1806 01:52:25,440 --> 01:52:28,080 catch. Which is quite funny because 1807 01:52:28,080 --> 01:52:30,120 that is the actual right of the rule. 1808 01:52:30,600 --> 01:52:34,680 That is funny. I, I mean, my, my honestly in my 1809 01:52:34,680 --> 01:52:37,400 head that had always been the way that you're supposed to do 1810 01:52:37,400 --> 01:52:40,240 it. Like it has to be, to be 1811 01:52:40,240 --> 01:52:45,960 inbounds, you have to have like 2 feet like because those you 1812 01:52:45,960 --> 01:52:53,440 have to have both feet. And but yeah, that is it's, it's 1813 01:52:53,440 --> 01:52:58,200 a frustrating one for him. Yeah, I, I, I Anyway, what I was 1814 01:52:58,280 --> 01:53:01,440 trying to get at is I think George Pickens is elite. 1815 01:53:01,840 --> 01:53:05,160 He can, he can deliver. I mean, the spike week that 1816 01:53:05,160 --> 01:53:09,600 defined the playoffs, the best ball playoffs last year, like is 1817 01:53:09,600 --> 01:53:13,120 very squarely in that range of outcomes for George Pickens 1818 01:53:13,120 --> 01:53:15,760 every week. Like that's what makes him an 1819 01:53:15,760 --> 01:53:21,480 interesting player. Russ Russ did not look great 1820 01:53:21,480 --> 01:53:24,720 again for the majority of the game, but then he did have a 1821 01:53:24,720 --> 01:53:29,240 couple pretty like and I I he. Throws the moon balls that in 1822 01:53:30,200 --> 01:53:32,520 that that he that Pickens can catch. 1823 01:53:32,720 --> 01:53:35,400 He he actually, he had a couple pretty good deep shots this game 1824 01:53:35,400 --> 01:53:36,880 too. Last last game, like the 1825 01:53:36,880 --> 01:53:39,520 majority of the deep balls were not I I don't think he had a 1826 01:53:39,520 --> 01:53:43,160 single good deep ball last week that last week. 1827 01:53:43,160 --> 01:53:46,880 The ones that that converted were were pure like 5050 1828 01:53:46,880 --> 01:53:49,560 interceptable passes, danger like they would, they would be 1829 01:53:49,560 --> 01:53:51,720 graded as danger throws, you know, like they were 1830 01:53:51,720 --> 01:53:53,960 interceptions in another universe. 1831 01:53:54,280 --> 01:53:57,960 This week there were a couple that were actual Dimes, like the 1832 01:53:58,040 --> 01:54:01,200 the Van Jefferson. Sorry, no, the Calvin Calvin 1833 01:54:01,200 --> 01:54:04,600 Austin 1 was pretty awesome. Like that was a legitimately 1834 01:54:04,600 --> 01:54:06,960 good throw. So, like, I want to give Russ 1835 01:54:06,960 --> 01:54:12,680 his flowers where it's due. I also do not think that that 1836 01:54:12,680 --> 01:54:14,560 efficiency is sustainable for him. 1837 01:54:14,560 --> 01:54:17,680 Just watching, watching the entire games. 1838 01:54:17,680 --> 01:54:20,560 For both of the games we've seen Russ play, he doesn't look very 1839 01:54:20,560 --> 01:54:24,280 good, but he is able to occasionally throw a pretty good 1840 01:54:24,280 --> 01:54:26,760 ball. So that is what makes Pickens 1841 01:54:26,840 --> 01:54:29,800 really fun. Man. 1842 01:54:30,040 --> 01:54:31,280 There. There's a couple guys on this 1843 01:54:31,280 --> 01:54:33,720 chart, though, that I think are in really. 1844 01:54:34,560 --> 01:54:36,760 I mean, yeah. Russell was airing it out. 1845 01:54:37,840 --> 01:54:44,240 So Pickens he had a 12.4 A dot, but then a lot of a lot of 1846 01:54:44,240 --> 01:54:47,440 Russ's passes were pretty deep. This this week. 1847 01:54:48,800 --> 01:54:58,600 Let me let me that that probably doesn't need to be what you call 1848 01:54:58,600 --> 01:55:02,040 it. So hit Russ's A dot this week 1849 01:55:02,040 --> 01:55:05,960 was 10.7 after 9.2 last week. So he actually was throwing it 1850 01:55:05,960 --> 01:55:08,640 pretty deep, which is interesting. 1851 01:55:09,240 --> 01:55:14,760 And I, I, I still think when the Steelers aren't playing with the 1852 01:55:14,760 --> 01:55:19,480 lead and and and are in trouble, he's going to look a lot weaker. 1853 01:55:19,480 --> 01:55:22,760 But it is interesting that he was trying a deeper lot. 1854 01:55:24,880 --> 01:55:29,400 Yeah, Yeah, definitely some of the other guys on this chart 1855 01:55:29,400 --> 01:55:30,920 that I think are really interesting. 1856 01:55:31,200 --> 01:55:35,080 We talked about LAD a little bit, but he I mean, he is like 1857 01:55:35,080 --> 01:55:38,000 the dominant wide receiver one on that team now. 1858 01:55:38,000 --> 01:55:43,800 And I think it's it's only going to get more and more clear going 1859 01:55:43,800 --> 01:55:46,120 forward. I think he still has room to 1860 01:55:46,120 --> 01:55:49,400 earn more targets in this offense and we've seen the 1861 01:55:49,400 --> 01:55:52,000 passing trend up for this offense. 1862 01:55:52,600 --> 01:55:55,800 I think it's like Wheels, although it's a by high spot for 1863 01:55:55,800 --> 01:56:00,880 Lad Mcconkey, in my opinion. Like he he seems like he's going 1864 01:56:00,880 --> 01:56:03,320 to be the dominant wide receiver one in this offense and he's 1865 01:56:03,320 --> 01:56:04,880 attached to a really good quarterback. 1866 01:56:04,920 --> 01:56:07,000 And if they're willing to actually keep the pass rate up, 1867 01:56:07,640 --> 01:56:15,200 he's really interesting. Yeah, yeah, for for sure, for 1868 01:56:15,200 --> 01:56:16,680 sure. He's definitely, he's definitely 1869 01:56:16,760 --> 01:56:20,760 going to be the main receiver on that offense. 1870 01:56:21,320 --> 01:56:24,760 I, I the only thing I'm, I'm looking at his, his targets for, 1871 01:56:24,760 --> 01:56:31,200 at, for at run in the last game was 20% and it was an 8 out of 1872 01:56:31,200 --> 01:56:35,760 13 and he had a really good game. 1873 01:56:38,280 --> 01:56:42,600 I guess I thought I, I think when I saw the, the excitement, 1874 01:56:43,000 --> 01:56:46,200 I was kind of expecting a little bit stronger underlying usage. 1875 01:56:47,120 --> 01:56:50,400 And, but like you said, there's definitely room to run there 1876 01:56:50,400 --> 01:56:54,800 where it can get higher. But I, I I I'm, I'm. 1877 01:56:54,800 --> 01:56:57,600 I'm a little bit surprised that it's not higher already. 1878 01:56:59,640 --> 01:57:02,080 Yeah, I I think we can still see it grow though. 1879 01:57:02,520 --> 01:57:04,080 Man. A guy who I think we're going to 1880 01:57:04,080 --> 01:57:07,760 see absolutely explode though in these next couple weeks is Josh 1881 01:57:07,760 --> 01:57:10,120 Downs. You know what? 1882 01:57:10,200 --> 01:57:14,640 OK, you know what is funny? Josh Downs was kind of pegged as 1883 01:57:14,640 --> 01:57:17,680 this, like, oh, he's underneath slot type guy. 1884 01:57:17,680 --> 01:57:21,240 That's what we said. Yeah, he he gets the deep ball 1885 01:57:21,240 --> 01:57:25,280 from Anthony Richardson this week. 69 yard touchdown where 1886 01:57:25,480 --> 01:57:27,160 they had him running a deeper route there. 1887 01:57:27,160 --> 01:57:29,560 It wasn't just like it was all yards after catch. 1888 01:57:30,920 --> 01:57:35,840 So I, I do think that Josh Downs is probably not as limited in 1889 01:57:35,840 --> 01:57:40,920 his role as we may have thought previously. 1890 01:57:42,440 --> 01:57:44,120 I think he's just a really good receiver. 1891 01:57:44,120 --> 01:57:47,800 If anything, I think he's probably like a little bit 1892 01:57:47,800 --> 01:57:51,120 closer to what we're seeing from Lad Mcconkey. 1893 01:57:51,120 --> 01:57:54,440 Like I think he can probably operate everywhere on the field. 1894 01:57:55,200 --> 01:57:58,800 He's a little, he's smaller than lab Mcconkey, but I mean, you're 1895 01:57:58,800 --> 01:58:01,440 getting the, the big time quarterback upgrade with Flacco 1896 01:58:01,440 --> 01:58:04,320 for him. He's he's very clearly the best 1897 01:58:04,320 --> 01:58:08,440 receiver on the team to me. Like he, he is substantially 1898 01:58:08,440 --> 01:58:11,640 better than Michael Pittman and pretty much all the peripherals 1899 01:58:11,640 --> 01:58:15,280 support that as well. So I think he's the one that 1900 01:58:15,280 --> 01:58:19,240 benefits the most. He's also a great buy. 1901 01:58:19,240 --> 01:58:22,520 I, I don't if you're in a league like a, a home league where 1902 01:58:22,520 --> 01:58:27,640 you've got trading, I don't think that the upside can can be 1903 01:58:27,640 --> 01:58:31,720 properly priced in by a lot of people here like I. 1904 01:58:31,760 --> 01:58:33,920 Know. This is gonna sound a little 1905 01:58:33,920 --> 01:58:37,400 hot, Takey, but I think there are outcomes where Josh downs 1906 01:58:37,400 --> 01:58:39,960 like a low and wide receiver won to finish the season, yeah. 1907 01:58:40,760 --> 01:58:45,440 Yeah, if like I think you need, you need Joe Flackwood to start 1908 01:58:45,440 --> 01:58:46,840 the rest of the way. Right. 1909 01:58:47,520 --> 01:58:51,680 And but if he does like so low end wide receiver, one that's 1910 01:58:51,680 --> 01:58:53,920 like wide receiver 11 or 12. Yeah. 1911 01:58:54,480 --> 01:58:56,600 Rest of season that, that feels totally reasonable. 1912 01:58:56,920 --> 01:59:00,080 Yeah, like in in line with like Garrett Wilson production, you 1913 01:59:00,080 --> 01:59:02,480 know, like that. That doesn't seem unreasonable 1914 01:59:02,480 --> 01:59:03,640 to me. Right. 1915 01:59:05,440 --> 01:59:07,880 And you're right, his peripherals are way better. 1916 01:59:08,040 --> 01:59:11,920 He's earning way more time, he's getting more yardage per route, 1917 01:59:12,520 --> 01:59:15,880 and then Pittman, like he is the best receiver on that team. 1918 01:59:16,120 --> 01:59:20,360 Yeah, it's not close either. Let's see. 1919 01:59:20,520 --> 01:59:23,760 Oh, the last guy I wanted to talk about on this chart, Chris 1920 01:59:23,760 --> 01:59:28,480 Olave. So man, couple of couple of 1921 01:59:28,480 --> 01:59:30,960 interesting things here. So it looks like Derek Carr 1922 01:59:30,960 --> 01:59:34,680 should be back this week. You would think that would be a 1923 01:59:34,680 --> 01:59:39,440 large positive for Olave. Now, previously when Carr was in 1924 01:59:39,880 --> 01:59:44,840 Olave almost like legitimately played second fiddle to Rashid 1925 01:59:44,840 --> 01:59:49,120 Shaheed. Now you you got heat out of the 1926 01:59:49,120 --> 01:59:52,440 way now, unfortunately, with his season ending injury. 1927 01:59:52,760 --> 01:59:57,120 So Olave might just be like the only show in town here with car 1928 01:59:57,120 --> 02:00:01,160 back and you know, will be, you know, force fed regard, you 1929 02:00:01,160 --> 02:00:03,720 know, like car now won't have any choice other than to look 1930 02:00:03,720 --> 02:00:07,080 his way. But again, you get the Saints 1931 02:00:07,080 --> 02:00:09,760 with this really awesome match up against the Panthers. 1932 02:00:10,680 --> 02:00:13,440 There's a couple. I'm, I'm conflicted here because 1933 02:00:13,440 --> 02:00:15,680 I really, I want to be in on Olave this week. 1934 02:00:15,680 --> 02:00:17,320 It seems like a really good spot. 1935 02:00:18,000 --> 02:00:22,320 But I, I think I, I'm pretty sure the market might be 1936 02:00:22,320 --> 02:00:26,480 overvaluing him right now because the Saints have told us 1937 02:00:26,480 --> 02:00:29,640 they want to run right? Like the Saints would love to 1938 02:00:29,640 --> 02:00:32,040 just run the ball and they should be able to do that 1939 02:00:32,040 --> 02:00:34,880 against the Panthers. I'm like, right now, let me, let 1940 02:00:34,880 --> 02:00:38,720 me tell you who Olave goes around in these dog bowl drafts 1941 02:00:38,720 --> 02:00:41,440 just for you know, we can we have some frame of reference 1942 02:00:41,440 --> 02:00:45,120 here. So Crystal Lavey going right at 1943 02:00:45,120 --> 02:00:50,200 the 2-3 turn, ADP of 23.4. Here's the receivers that he's 1944 02:00:50,200 --> 02:00:55,120 going ahead of. And I, I want your opinion on 1945 02:00:55,120 --> 02:00:57,400 these. So he's going ahead of Devonta 1946 02:00:57,400 --> 02:01:02,800 Smith by a, a good number of picks going ahead of DK Metcalf, 1947 02:01:02,800 --> 02:01:04,720 who's questionable. So that's that's obviously a 1948 02:01:04,720 --> 02:01:09,200 weird one. Zay Flowers, Marvin Harrison, T 1949 02:01:09,200 --> 02:01:12,600 Higgins, DJ Moore. Do you think he should be ahead 1950 02:01:12,600 --> 02:01:15,520 of all those guys here? No. 1951 02:01:15,880 --> 02:01:18,880 And I think, I think those are all guys who are kind of like 1952 02:01:19,760 --> 02:01:23,000 undervalued here. Like I think Devante is 1953 02:01:23,000 --> 02:01:25,480 undervalued, I think Zay Flowers is undervalued. 1954 02:01:26,160 --> 02:01:31,400 And the rest of the guys I, I kind of, I kind of get it with 1955 02:01:31,400 --> 02:01:33,800 the injury concerns. I kind of get it with the injury 1956 02:01:33,800 --> 02:01:39,160 risks. I think yeah, I, I think those 1957 02:01:39,160 --> 02:01:45,520 guys are just undervalued and the the the pick on, on Olave, 1958 02:01:45,520 --> 02:01:48,600 it seems fine. It seems it seems like an 1959 02:01:48,600 --> 02:01:52,960 efficient price, like inefficient to OK price actually 1960 02:01:55,040 --> 02:01:58,640 just because like you said, he could get an outcome where they, 1961 02:01:58,640 --> 02:02:03,560 they, they, they, they do throw a decent amount and he dominates 1962 02:02:03,560 --> 02:02:07,400 those targets. But the, the, the base case is 1963 02:02:07,400 --> 02:02:10,920 definitely for them to, to run the ball a lot and to not 1964 02:02:10,920 --> 02:02:13,040 actually be that much passing volume. 1965 02:02:14,080 --> 02:02:16,840 And I guess in, in Olave's favor. 1966 02:02:17,080 --> 02:02:24,560 So week two, he did get a 38% at Target for outrun and week 424 1967 02:02:24,560 --> 02:02:30,760 percent, 29% week, week, sorry, week 324%, week 429%. 1968 02:02:31,560 --> 02:02:35,120 So like he has been a pretty consistent strong dominant 1969 02:02:35,120 --> 02:02:38,080 target earner on on throughout the season when he's played. 1970 02:02:38,800 --> 02:02:43,440 And I, I, I think that only kind of like concentrates now. 1971 02:02:44,760 --> 02:02:47,840 So I, I think you, you have that going for him, but you, you, you 1972 02:02:47,840 --> 02:02:52,200 have overall like offensive volume concerns massively there. 1973 02:02:54,040 --> 02:02:59,960 Yeah, I, I, I guess for me, like the in, in the context of like 1974 02:02:59,960 --> 02:03:04,520 Dog Bowl ADP, if there's to me feels like a pretty clear tier 1975 02:03:04,520 --> 02:03:07,640 break as far as like talent right around there where the 1976 02:03:07,640 --> 02:03:11,640 guys going before him or like Drake, London Cooper Cup, 1977 02:03:11,640 --> 02:03:15,960 Kenneth Walker, James Cook. And then you get to like Terry 1978 02:03:15,960 --> 02:03:20,880 Mclaurin, Chris Olave and it's like, man, that's like that 1979 02:03:20,880 --> 02:03:22,840 feels like a pretty stark drop off there. 1980 02:03:23,120 --> 02:03:27,200 So I think what we'll see when projections are out is I think 1981 02:03:27,200 --> 02:03:30,640 that you'll end up with some of these wide receivers getting 1982 02:03:30,640 --> 02:03:32,720 pushed back, pushed a little later. 1983 02:03:32,720 --> 02:03:35,600 So they all kind of cluster around like the 3-4 turn. 1984 02:03:36,000 --> 02:03:39,440 And I think you see like the beginning of the 2nd and and or 1985 02:03:39,680 --> 02:03:42,760 beginning of the third round and really like the whole third. 1986 02:03:42,760 --> 02:03:45,880 I think the entire third is going to be occupied by a lot of 1987 02:03:45,880 --> 02:03:48,320 these higher end quarterbacks and some of the higher 1988 02:03:48,320 --> 02:03:51,200 projecting tight ends this week because you're going to get guys 1989 02:03:51,200 --> 02:03:56,120 like Evan Ingram, Trey McBride, David and Joku that all project 1990 02:03:56,120 --> 02:03:59,440 really well along with some of these quarterbacks. 1991 02:04:00,160 --> 02:04:02,800 Well, I think the quarterback should rightfully get pushed 1992 02:04:02,800 --> 02:04:05,440 back a little bit. Like Lamar is going too early 1993 02:04:05,440 --> 02:04:07,360 right now. Josh Allen is going too early 1994 02:04:07,360 --> 02:04:10,120 right now, Jaylen. Hurst I don't like that Cooper 1995 02:04:10,120 --> 02:04:13,240 cook price, to be honest. Maybe I'm maybe I'm I'm paying 1996 02:04:13,240 --> 02:04:17,480 too much attention to the low A dot over his tree games, but I 1997 02:04:17,520 --> 02:04:22,080 think that might be giving too much deference to his his prior. 1998 02:04:22,760 --> 02:04:24,680 Would you take Drake London over Cooper Cub? 1999 02:04:25,640 --> 02:04:28,560 Yes, me. Especially Terry Mclaurin over 2000 02:04:28,560 --> 02:04:32,920 Cooper Cub. And I think, I think that's 2001 02:04:32,920 --> 02:04:35,600 close. I think like I think that's 2002 02:04:35,600 --> 02:04:39,920 close enough. I probably, yeah, probably 2003 02:04:39,920 --> 02:04:43,280 Terry, honestly probably Terry, but it's pretty close. 2004 02:04:44,080 --> 02:04:48,720 And then I think Olave Cooper Cub is pretty close too. 2005 02:04:48,760 --> 02:04:52,600 So I think, I think cup actually belongs in the Terry Olave 2006 02:04:52,840 --> 02:04:55,240 range. See, I think I, I think I'm 2007 02:04:55,240 --> 02:04:58,360 going to disagree with you there just because I think the past 2008 02:04:58,360 --> 02:05:02,080 volume for them should be like the total number of targets that 2009 02:05:02,080 --> 02:05:05,200 we can expect for cup. I think it's going to be a lot 2010 02:05:05,200 --> 02:05:08,280 better than what we can expect for Olave or Terry. 2011 02:05:08,280 --> 02:05:10,200 I might be, I might be wrong on that though. 2012 02:05:10,320 --> 02:05:15,560 I'm just, I'm so gun shy about the Saints running the crap out 2013 02:05:15,560 --> 02:05:18,480 of the right into the Panthers that that's giving me a lot of 2014 02:05:18,480 --> 02:05:23,080 pause there with Olave. And then for Terry, I mean, like 2015 02:05:23,240 --> 02:05:25,480 Jayden Daniels has been incredible. 2016 02:05:25,840 --> 02:05:30,600 But also like there really isn't a ton of like a lot of the 2017 02:05:30,600 --> 02:05:33,760 production is just getting spread around or like, you know, 2018 02:05:33,880 --> 02:05:37,160 guys you're learning a name for every week or like getting 20 2019 02:05:37,160 --> 02:05:39,040 yards or whatever for Jayden Daniels. 2020 02:05:39,040 --> 02:05:43,920 So I don't know, it's probably you're, I think you're probably 2021 02:05:43,920 --> 02:05:46,920 right that Cooper Cup and Terry should should basically be like 2022 02:05:47,600 --> 02:05:48,800 I, I bet they'll be pretty close. 2023 02:05:48,800 --> 02:05:51,640 So projections come out. Yeah. 2024 02:05:51,720 --> 02:05:56,480 So Terry Mclaurin, if I just look at his at his average at 2025 02:05:56,480 --> 02:06:01,280 24% targets per at run and then he's had weeks where he's at 34 2026 02:06:01,280 --> 02:06:06,160 percent, 29 percent, 32. And then air in the year he had 2027 02:06:06,160 --> 02:06:10,760 a brutal stretch and last week he was just at 23%. 2028 02:06:12,120 --> 02:06:18,880 And like I think with Terry, like even though it's his target 2029 02:06:18,880 --> 02:06:22,920 share is probably like trends of a little bit just a tad lower 2030 02:06:22,920 --> 02:06:25,520 than cup. Like not honestly not that much 2031 02:06:25,520 --> 02:06:27,320 lower, but just a little bit lower. 2032 02:06:27,880 --> 02:06:32,520 And I think your your chances of the explosive players are 2033 02:06:32,520 --> 02:06:38,120 higher. Yeah, yeah, the as I look at the 2034 02:06:38,120 --> 02:06:42,760 game totals, there's about a 55 or 4 1/2 point difference here 2035 02:06:42,760 --> 02:06:47,240 between the Commanders and Giants game and the Seahawks and 2036 02:06:47,240 --> 02:06:49,760 Rams. Yes, 4005 1/2 point difference, 2037 02:06:49,760 --> 02:06:52,960 43 to 48 1/2. So that that's another thing 2038 02:06:52,960 --> 02:06:56,160 that just gives me a little bit of pause there on, on Terry. 2039 02:06:57,400 --> 02:07:01,800 I I think if you made me guess right now, I'm going to say that 2040 02:07:01,800 --> 02:07:06,440 cup comes in projected higher than Terry, but I think they're 2041 02:07:06,440 --> 02:07:09,760 definitely closer than Olave will be. 2042 02:07:09,760 --> 02:07:13,000 I think, I think Olave. I think I would project them. 2043 02:07:13,000 --> 02:07:17,560 I would project Terry for more air yards and pretty yeah. 2044 02:07:17,960 --> 02:07:20,200 Yeah, yeah, that's reasonable. I just think the target volume 2045 02:07:20,200 --> 02:07:22,440 is going to be substantially greater for a cup. 2046 02:07:22,880 --> 02:07:26,160 So it kind of comes out in the wash for them, but I don't. 2047 02:07:26,520 --> 02:07:29,920 Think it's substantial, OK. I think you're talking about two 2048 02:07:29,920 --> 02:07:33,800 or three more targets. Yeah. 2049 02:07:33,960 --> 02:07:35,520 I think you're talking about like 9. 2050 02:07:36,160 --> 02:07:39,760 You're probably talking about a projection of seven or eight for 2051 02:07:39,760 --> 02:07:44,800 for Maclaurin and then maybe 10 for for Cook. 2052 02:07:45,680 --> 02:07:49,320 And you're talking about like an A dot of like 12 to 15 versus 2053 02:07:49,320 --> 02:07:55,200 like 7:00 to 9:00. Yeah, no, that I, I, I think 2054 02:07:55,200 --> 02:07:56,360 you're right. The more I think about it, 2055 02:07:56,360 --> 02:07:58,520 they're probably pretty close. It'll be it'll be interesting to 2056 02:07:58,520 --> 02:07:59,880 see how they shake out this week. 2057 02:08:00,440 --> 02:08:03,200 Yeah, for sure. But let's let's move to this 2058 02:08:03,200 --> 02:08:05,040 last chart here. We'll we'll wrap it up. 2059 02:08:05,280 --> 02:08:07,160 We're over the two hour mark now. 2060 02:08:09,080 --> 02:08:12,640 Puka Puka being on this chart is kind of funny, but he did only 2061 02:08:12,640 --> 02:08:17,200 play, you know, limited number of snaps here in his first game 2062 02:08:17,200 --> 02:08:22,720 back from injury, but dominated targets nonetheless with above 2063 02:08:22,720 --> 02:08:25,360 an 80% weighted targets per route run. 2064 02:08:26,000 --> 02:08:30,360 So I I fully expect him to be back on the the starters chart. 2065 02:08:31,040 --> 02:08:34,960 Before, right, I mean, and puka that that puka run out is a 2066 02:08:34,960 --> 02:08:40,080 pretty good example of why when people say I got, especially 2067 02:08:40,080 --> 02:08:42,960 when you're talking about a star and they're coming back from 2068 02:08:42,960 --> 02:08:45,800 injury and they're like, oh, he's on a pitch count. 2069 02:08:45,960 --> 02:08:48,480 You can't play him. He's on a pitch count. 2070 02:08:49,480 --> 02:08:53,160 When these guys, when these stars are on pitch counts, it 2071 02:08:53,160 --> 02:08:56,720 means they're on a pitch count on on like a play basis. 2072 02:08:57,120 --> 02:08:59,760 But when they're on the field, they're going to target the shit 2073 02:08:59,760 --> 02:09:03,240 out of them like that. That's when you're talking about 2074 02:09:03,240 --> 02:09:06,200 a glide like puku. That's kind of how that works. 2075 02:09:06,840 --> 02:09:10,480 And I think that that's something to I, I don't think 2076 02:09:10,480 --> 02:09:12,360 there's going to be many people listening to this podcast. 2077 02:09:12,360 --> 02:09:15,200 They're going to be like surprised by like how it run out 2078 02:09:15,200 --> 02:09:17,600 or like it's going to be a lesson for them. 2079 02:09:17,600 --> 02:09:19,200 But I I think it's worth kind of noting. 2080 02:09:20,160 --> 02:09:25,080 Yeah, yeah, I man, I wish that I had been on a call with you when 2081 02:09:25,080 --> 02:09:29,320 I was getting ready to submit my showdown lineups for that Rams 2082 02:09:29,320 --> 02:09:33,120 Vikings game because I adjusted the puka projection up by like 2083 02:09:33,120 --> 02:09:35,560 40%. Most of the projection sites had 2084 02:09:35,560 --> 02:09:38,720 them around like seven for projection. 2085 02:09:39,080 --> 02:09:41,160 I was like, that just does not seem right to me. 2086 02:09:41,520 --> 02:09:45,960 So I really, I jammed the projection way up like 40% 2087 02:09:45,960 --> 02:09:48,960 increase, which is pretty massive in, in DFS, you know, 2088 02:09:48,960 --> 02:09:50,400 especially. No, no, I agree. 2089 02:09:51,280 --> 02:09:55,240 And, and I ran my normal process and still was not getting any 2090 02:09:55,240 --> 02:09:57,920 puka. And I was like, God, I really, I 2091 02:09:57,920 --> 02:09:59,400 think I want to play puka tonight. 2092 02:09:59,400 --> 02:10:02,200 I'm pretty sure people are just really wrong on the projection 2093 02:10:02,200 --> 02:10:07,280 And the ownership was so low and I almost, I almost just doubled 2094 02:10:07,280 --> 02:10:09,600 this projection. Just put him at 100% of what he 2095 02:10:09,600 --> 02:10:11,720 was projected at, put him at like 15. 2096 02:10:12,440 --> 02:10:15,480 And I have the stones to do it. It's like I'm just gonna, I'm 2097 02:10:15,480 --> 02:10:17,960 gonna trust my process. I bumped the projection way, way 2098 02:10:17,960 --> 02:10:19,480 up. I still didn't get any of them. 2099 02:10:19,560 --> 02:10:21,880 It's fine. And then of course, he's just 2100 02:10:21,880 --> 02:10:24,560 atomic in the game. That was, that was a 2101 02:10:24,560 --> 02:10:27,640 generational wealth spot if I put the projection where I 2102 02:10:27,920 --> 02:10:31,880 wanted to, right, just had the stones. 40% sounds like a lot, 2103 02:10:32,320 --> 02:10:35,960 but relative to the volatility, the input volatility, it's 2104 02:10:35,960 --> 02:10:38,400 probably not that much. And that's that's what I was 2105 02:10:38,400 --> 02:10:40,640 struggling with too. It's like, God, a normal 2106 02:10:40,640 --> 02:10:43,800 projection for puka on this site would be like 18 or 19, you 2107 02:10:43,800 --> 02:10:47,160 know, so even right would be low and so right. 2108 02:10:47,600 --> 02:10:50,360 Yeah, it's it was just a question of like how fragile is 2109 02:10:50,360 --> 02:10:53,360 the projection? And and then like it's really 2110 02:10:53,360 --> 02:10:55,760 difficult. I I think the proper way to. 2111 02:10:55,760 --> 02:10:58,040 Well, nobody could have. Nobody could have projected like 2112 02:10:58,040 --> 02:11:02,680 a 41% targets per hour run, no? No, no, But I, I think I'm, I'm 2113 02:11:02,680 --> 02:11:04,080 really just saying this more for myself. 2114 02:11:04,080 --> 02:11:06,800 The proper way to handle a situation like that with so much 2115 02:11:06,800 --> 02:11:12,400 input volatility is not to take what you think is the, the rate 2116 02:11:12,400 --> 02:11:15,840 or the probability of the outcome occurring and then 2117 02:11:15,840 --> 02:11:18,480 multiply that by the average value of the outcome and get 2118 02:11:18,480 --> 02:11:21,080 like an expected value for, Hey, this is what his projection 2119 02:11:21,080 --> 02:11:25,120 should be because 40% of the time he's super limited and, and 2120 02:11:25,120 --> 02:11:27,600 is projected for seven, you know, and that's the correct 2121 02:11:27,600 --> 02:11:30,400 project. And 60% of the time he's like 2122 02:11:30,840 --> 02:11:34,080 80% of himself and he's, he's projected for 15. 2123 02:11:35,120 --> 02:11:37,920 And, and then, you know, getting the expected value from those 2124 02:11:37,920 --> 02:11:40,840 frequencies and, and weights, I don't think is actually the 2125 02:11:40,840 --> 02:11:44,720 right way to do it in DFSI. Think if anything, you want to 2126 02:11:44,720 --> 02:11:47,720 iterate through the, the scenario. 2127 02:11:47,720 --> 02:11:51,320 You want to iterate through each scenario rather than using a 2128 02:11:51,320 --> 02:11:53,600 blend. Right. 2129 02:11:54,000 --> 02:11:56,680 Or the other way to think about it would have been like, hey, 2130 02:11:57,080 --> 02:12:01,760 this is a super volatile input, ownership is super low. 2131 02:12:02,680 --> 02:12:08,280 And, and the payoff, if I get this right, is really high 2132 02:12:09,040 --> 02:12:14,040 because that the ceiling is there, the ownership is low and 2133 02:12:14,040 --> 02:12:17,240 that that that's like a good, that's just a good DFS play. 2134 02:12:18,360 --> 02:12:20,160 Yeah, yeah. And and if I. 2135 02:12:20,200 --> 02:12:23,040 Easy that that's that's a Monday morning quarterback view, but I 2136 02:12:23,040 --> 02:12:25,240 think that's the kind of like Evergreen take away. 2137 02:12:25,760 --> 02:12:30,720 Yeah, no, absolutely. Other guy I wanted to touch on 2138 02:12:30,720 --> 02:12:34,800 on this chart we Cedric Tillman, we talked about the Browns 2139 02:12:34,800 --> 02:12:38,800 offense a little bit. I mean, he he looks interesting 2140 02:12:38,800 --> 02:12:41,320 for sure got great target volume. 2141 02:12:42,160 --> 02:12:44,440 He's he's getting targeted at all depths too. 2142 02:12:44,440 --> 02:12:47,120 It's not just like he's the depot guy or the short area guy 2143 02:12:47,120 --> 02:12:48,880 like he's he's all over the place. 2144 02:12:49,320 --> 02:12:53,920 He kind of looks like he is. If I had to guess, I would say 2145 02:12:53,920 --> 02:12:57,080 he's probably going to be the emerging alpha on this team. 2146 02:12:58,440 --> 02:13:01,160 So he's very interesting. I would I would expect that we 2147 02:13:01,160 --> 02:13:04,760 see him graduate to the next chart with a higher. 2148 02:13:04,760 --> 02:13:09,800 So he had he had a 93% route rate in, in week 8. 2149 02:13:10,760 --> 02:13:16,400 And one thing I kind of said at the start of the show that went 2150 02:13:16,400 --> 02:13:19,800 under the radar is a large and I think you, you've touched on 2151 02:13:19,800 --> 02:13:21,320 this too. Actually, we both touched on 2152 02:13:21,320 --> 02:13:25,840 this, was that Elijah Moore actually out targeted and Cedric 2153 02:13:25,840 --> 02:13:30,480 Tillman, but it went under the radar because he was like a 2154 02:13:30,480 --> 02:13:34,320 lower, lower A dot and he didn't catch the deep touchdown. 2155 02:13:34,320 --> 02:13:36,040 He didn't have the game when he touched, Yeah. 2156 02:13:36,440 --> 02:13:38,480 Right. Yeah. 2157 02:13:39,400 --> 02:13:42,960 So I, I, I, I think those are two good guys to think of in in 2158 02:13:42,960 --> 02:13:45,720 like combination. And and here's the most fun part 2159 02:13:45,760 --> 02:13:48,120 of this whole Browns receivers conversation. 2160 02:13:48,640 --> 02:13:51,640 If you had to pick your two favorites to have on your 2161 02:13:51,640 --> 02:13:54,680 roster, of all the Browns receivers, Cedric Tillman, 2162 02:13:54,880 --> 02:13:58,440 Elijah Moore or Jerry Judy, which two would? 2163 02:13:58,440 --> 02:14:01,960 It's not fucking Jerry, Judy. It's not fucking Jerry Judy, cuz 2164 02:14:01,960 --> 02:14:05,840 that guy stinks. Oh man, it feels, feels good to 2165 02:14:05,840 --> 02:14:09,360 be right. All right, last guy I had on 2166 02:14:09,360 --> 02:14:12,680 this chart that I think is interesting is Jalen Coker. 2167 02:14:13,800 --> 02:14:16,240 You get the Deonte trade shipping him out of town. 2168 02:14:16,640 --> 02:14:19,080 Jalen Coker looks like he can play too. 2169 02:14:19,360 --> 02:14:22,320 Granted, it's going to be with terrible quarterback play. 2170 02:14:22,320 --> 02:14:25,960 So you know, your mileage may vary here, but Jalen Coker is 2171 02:14:25,960 --> 02:14:29,800 like a very interesting stash. He's definitely, I went out and 2172 02:14:30,120 --> 02:14:32,800 there's a dynasty league where he was on waivers and I just 2173 02:14:32,800 --> 02:14:35,080 blew all my FAB on him 'cause it's like, what? 2174 02:14:35,080 --> 02:14:37,320 What else are you going to use your FAB for in dynasty? 2175 02:14:37,800 --> 02:14:42,120 So he's he's a pretty interesting guy, like probably 2176 02:14:42,120 --> 02:14:44,720 most interesting in dynasty where you can hold him and and 2177 02:14:44,720 --> 02:14:47,400 hope to get better quarterback play in a season or so. 2178 02:14:48,800 --> 02:14:53,000 But I wouldn't be surprised if he, you know, pops up here and 2179 02:14:53,000 --> 02:14:56,040 there for a a good game or two for the rest of the season. 2180 02:14:56,040 --> 02:14:59,560 I mean, he's the type of guy you have to take a swing on in, in, 2181 02:14:59,560 --> 02:15:04,200 in waivers where like all the plays on waivers are 10. 2182 02:15:04,240 --> 02:15:09,960 They're all 10, well, 99% of them, a handful of them have 2183 02:15:09,960 --> 02:15:12,520 some kind of upside because the guy is younger and he could 2184 02:15:12,520 --> 02:15:15,040 emerge. And even though it doesn't feel 2185 02:15:15,040 --> 02:15:19,720 good to like unload the clip on somebody like that, you kind of 2186 02:15:19,720 --> 02:15:25,480 have to do it a little bit. And when I say unload the clip, 2187 02:15:25,480 --> 02:15:32,240 I'm talking like a 10 to 20%. And probably and because there's 2188 02:15:32,240 --> 02:15:36,720 just there is potential outcomes where Jalen Coker is the is, is 2189 02:15:36,720 --> 02:15:43,000 the guy you need from waivers. I I think Xavier Legette, 2190 02:15:43,400 --> 02:15:46,400 Legette, he's he's somebody who's probably more rostered 2191 02:15:46,400 --> 02:15:49,240 more often, so won't be as on many rate waivers. 2192 02:15:49,680 --> 02:15:52,640 But I, I think he's just as interesting, if not more. 2193 02:15:53,200 --> 02:15:58,360 And he does, he has that kind of first round draft capital at the 2194 02:15:58,360 --> 02:16:02,480 jail and Coker, his college profile is like, it's like, 2195 02:16:02,480 --> 02:16:07,120 actually, it's not bad. And he was like an older, older 2196 02:16:07,120 --> 02:16:10,280 guy, like 22 playing for Holy Holy Cross. 2197 02:16:11,080 --> 02:16:13,640 And like his production was, was solid. 2198 02:16:14,640 --> 02:16:20,160 And it's, it's it's, it's not, it's certainly not the ideal 2199 02:16:20,160 --> 02:16:24,200 profile for like a smaller school guy And but it's fine. 2200 02:16:24,840 --> 02:16:28,920 And that I think that's something to keep in mind of 2201 02:16:28,920 --> 02:16:34,000 like between him and and Laget. And maybe I'm not like maybe 2202 02:16:34,000 --> 02:16:37,000 this isn't a controversial take that Laget is a better pick up, 2203 02:16:37,680 --> 02:16:41,160 but did did want to like, I think that's like a caveat to to 2204 02:16:41,160 --> 02:16:43,680 to like to frame it. Right. 2205 02:16:44,040 --> 02:16:47,480 Yeah. All right. 2206 02:16:47,480 --> 02:16:52,240 I, I did not have any notes on anyone else here. 2207 02:16:52,240 --> 02:16:54,200 Did you have anyone else you wanted to talk about before you 2208 02:16:54,200 --> 02:16:58,240 shut it down? And yeah, maybe we should talk 2209 02:16:58,240 --> 02:17:01,480 about McMillan. And we we did. 2210 02:17:01,480 --> 02:17:04,760 We talked about Senator Tillman was one of the pick wave pickups 2211 02:17:04,760 --> 02:17:08,520 last week. We talked about Troy Franklin, 2212 02:17:08,520 --> 02:17:11,639 who I liked, who didn't pan out, and McMillan. 2213 02:17:11,639 --> 02:17:15,920 So he did get the red chair pickup, but he was stuck on 15% 2214 02:17:15,920 --> 02:17:21,040 targets per run and seven targets, 14.6 A dot. 2215 02:17:21,600 --> 02:17:29,120 He he he combined that for just 35 yards and a 0.76 yards per 2216 02:17:29,120 --> 02:17:34,080 out run. So and not really really not 2217 02:17:34,080 --> 02:17:37,760 great for McMillan. And it's it's feeling like a 2218 02:17:37,760 --> 02:17:41,959 ship chasing curse lives on. I think on waivers you you hold 2219 02:17:41,959 --> 02:17:48,719 them for for another week. And but if, if, if, if this guy 2220 02:17:48,719 --> 02:17:54,120 can't do anything with everybody gone and and he's getting a 90% 2221 02:17:54,120 --> 02:17:58,440 route share like I, I think that I think that the, the leash has 2222 02:17:58,440 --> 02:18:00,480 to be a little bit short and you have to be ready to turn. 2223 02:18:01,920 --> 02:18:03,520 Yeah, that's a that's a good call. 2224 02:18:03,520 --> 02:18:06,760 And I I agree you definitely you got to wait, give it at least 2225 02:18:06,760 --> 02:18:10,639 one more week and just see. But yeah, we can't. 2226 02:18:10,760 --> 02:18:14,799 We can't just die on the Jalen McMillan Hill if production. 2227 02:18:14,799 --> 02:18:18,480 Right, that's the that's the thing about redraft is that you 2228 02:18:18,480 --> 02:18:20,559 do get to cut these guys. They're stuck on our best ball 2229 02:18:20,760 --> 02:18:24,559 rosters, but we can switch them out, flip them out for somebody 2230 02:18:24,559 --> 02:18:28,160 else in in redraft. You know, the really good thing 2231 02:18:28,160 --> 02:18:33,120 about my basketball teams this year is I won't have to tilt 2232 02:18:33,120 --> 02:18:36,400 them for all that much longer because Week 14 is not that far 2233 02:18:36,400 --> 02:18:39,879 away and I am advancing shit to the playoffs this year. 2234 02:18:42,280 --> 02:18:47,600 Yeah, I, I, I dip down to like a 13%, I think it's like a 13% 2235 02:18:47,600 --> 02:18:53,559 advance rate And and that that's probably I'm probably gonna I'll 2236 02:18:53,559 --> 02:18:55,920 be happy if I finish that for the year. 2237 02:18:56,320 --> 02:18:59,320 I'll be happy if I get if I can just get some live teams. 2238 02:18:59,320 --> 02:19:01,920 True. And not not a great year, 2239 02:19:01,959 --> 02:19:04,200 unfortunately. No, no, it's, it's not that 2240 02:19:04,200 --> 02:19:08,000 great, but you don't need to hear us commiserate about our 2241 02:19:08,000 --> 02:19:12,160 best fall portfolios. I think, I think that's gonna do 2242 02:19:12,160 --> 02:19:15,920 it for the show this week. We appreciate you sticking with 2243 02:19:15,920 --> 02:19:19,680 us all the way through. Hope we gave you some actual 2244 02:19:19,680 --> 02:19:24,760 info and we will look forward to seeing you next week where we 2245 02:19:24,760 --> 02:19:30,320 will be live during the election right on election night so. 2246 02:19:30,680 --> 02:19:33,240 Oh yeah, yeah. If you need a If you need a 2247 02:19:33,240 --> 02:19:36,200 distraction from election night, TuneIn to start chasing. 2248 02:19:36,559 --> 02:19:39,520 Yep. All right, have a good one 2249 02:19:39,520 --> 02:19:39,879 everyone.