We are almost halfway through the NFL season with week eight
in the books and 0 RB Bros celebrated as some of their
favorite players like Tyrone Tracy and Ladd Mcconkey
skyrocketed their advance rates from 3% to 5%.
This is Pat Fryer, Helmo. This is Anita Handjob.
Fix your sight. Jamar.
And alpha play chase, you can't handle the heat.
It looks like we're finally at this point, You're right.
Apparently the the Tyrone Tracy skyrocketing your advance rates
all the way up to 5% hit a little too close to home for
you, Draco. You cut me off there.
Yeah, I'm sorry about that. What happened was I, I realized
that and I actually posted the the week 8 and one in in the
discord as well. And so I I guess I need to I
need I need to ping to get the the week 9.
Gotcha. Well, we can we can vamp a bit
while you send out the bat signal to let the people know
that we're live. But it was it was a fun week 8.
We definitely had some some pretty fun performances.
The Lad Mcconkey breakout was certainly really cool to see.
I mean, the the last couple weeks the Chargers have seen
like functional passing the ball, you know, despite not
wanting to. So that's that's at least a
little encouraging for the LAD shares.
Yeah. And so I think what was posted
on Twitter as well, OK, what was posted on Twitter is OK, now I
have the right signal and OK, that's the right one.
This is excellent. It's a week 8.
It's a it's a week 8 when we did as well.
So now I think only now people are getting the link.
Well, they'll they'll have to join us a couple minutes behind.
They missed some of this spectacular content that we've
already delivered tonight. Me panicking of like oh shit.
I think we can go ahead and jump into the charts tonight though.
We don't need a dilly dally. Sorry I was put.
I wanted to post a right link on on Twitter as well.
Gotcha. So we've got a yeah, sorry about
the delay folks. And maybe we can kind of like
cut that off in in the audio, but we've got the QB volume and
efficiency and rushing chart here.
So we have expected points on the horizontal axis, which is
the represent that's kind of like the the volume from passing
adjusted yards per 10th on the vertical, which is efficiency.
And then the size of the bubble corresponds to rushing yardage.
And then I guess the the one thing that jumps out to me
straight away here is just a pure volume for Baker Mayfield.
And I think some of that is driven by kind of an outlier
game against the Eagles where they had this 15% pass rate over
expected, but it's they still had some pretty solid games
other than that over expected as well.
And even with the injuries that are two to their two top
receivers this week, they still had 50 drop backs, 50 drop backs
with no receivers. So I think that's pretty
interesting that they still were very much willing to operate the
offense. True.
Baker Mayfield. I think they kind of had to
because they they, they actually did have to throw a lot against
the Falcons who had the lead. But I, I still think that that's
pretty encouraging for their, their kind of belief in Baker
Mayfield and for that volume and, and the overall passing
attack. Yeah, it definitely seems like
Baker Mayfield is the straw that stirs the drink in this offense,
which is a a little surprising given you know how good Mike
Evans and Chris Godwin are. But it it definitely looks like
they're confident in Baker and it seems like the the passing
volume is not a mirage. It's something that we can
expect to sustain throughout the season.
I I believe that right now in I, I correct me if I'm wrong, is
Baker the quarterback 2 on the season?
And I I don't know and but that would not that I would not
surprise me like he has put up a lot of AM I can tell you exactly
in in in just a second, I can tell you exactly how many points
he scored. But I'm not AM I'm not sure if
he's the QB 2 or not so. Yeah.
So we we've got. He scored 24 points a game,
which is pretty good. That is pretty good at fantasy
production. Now he's he's running pretty hot
on touchdowns. We did, we got, we got
confirmation from from producer Mark here and that he is
quarterback too. So great, Great call.
Yeah, he's running pretty hot on time, Mark.
But I mean, at this point, just, you know, as far as like
counting stats by the end of the year, it's going to be pretty
hard for Baker Mayfield to not finish the top five to see
quarterback. You know, that's that's not to
say that his points per game over the second-half of the
season is going to sustain that high.
But if you made me bet on it, gosh, top five for the rest of
the season in points per game, not counting what he's already
done, it's probably going to be pretty hard.
But I mean, I'm, I'm fully I'm drinking the Baker kool-aid man.
I I think he's proven himself to be a really solid NFL
quarterback. Yeah, yeah.
And and so he had a like a six six and it was 50 attempts, not
50 drop backs. And he had six adjusted yards
per attempt on like a 7.8 A dot. So like not the best efficiency,
but on A50 attempt game where you're chasing the game, that's
like that's pretty solid. That is pretty solid.
You do to the Sterling Shepherd, you know, and and Jalen McGill
not to not to so. If they're, if they're to get,
if they're to get Mike Evans back at some point, then it it's
pretty strongly wheels up for Mike Evans.
Yeah, it does sound like it's probably post week 11 for Mike
Evans from from what I've seen. But obviously that can develop
here over the next couple weeks. Maybe he comes back a little
earlier, but regardless. Speaking of guys who have had
high volume in the past. So I, I see that Josh Allen, I'm
not sure I, I don't want to get in specific contests, but I see
that Josh Allen is, is remains the quarterback won by ADP on
underdog. And I know we'd kind of noted
that in week seven, they had a 10% pass rate over expected
following the Ameritrade. And we're like, well, is that
because of intent or is that because of injuries to their
running backs? And so they actually they came
back down to a 0%. So neutral pass rate over
expected in in week 8. So to me that kind of suggests
that maybe we kind of saw a one time blip there.
It's it's not as negative as it was before.
I know that let me see. So they posted a couple of big
negative games. So maybe maybe they're not going
to be as run heavy as they were before.
And but I guess it's probably if, if, if it's, it's probably
somewhere between slightly negative to slightly above
positive pressure over expected. So I'll have to say, I think
we've gotten a little bit more evidence that this kind of like
50 drop back game is 50 drop backs per game or 40 drop backs
per game is not on the table for Josh.
Yeah, I, I would say that for this match up coming up this
week, they've got the Dolphins and the Bills prior to that one
blip on the radar where they they actually passed above
expected. They were very run heavy.
You know, they, they really tried to keep the ball on the
ground, not not running a ton of plays, but Miami's a run funnel.
And so I expect them to probably stick to what they've shown us
the most rather than that one blip for the first week that
they had Amari Cooper. Now there, there's a lot to
parse here because Miami was a run funnel.
I I think in part because they couldn't score any points.
And so teams were happy to just run on them.
You know, when Tua wasn't in, the Dolphins were not a threat
on offense. And so you could just run the
ball and get out of the game quickly with an easy win as long
as you just ran on Miami. You know, their their run
defense wasn't terribly imposing and you weren't really compelled
to pass against them because they weren't scoring any points.
So I would expect the Bills to be a little leaning towards run
heavy as a tendency this week. Right.
That's been pretty consistent across opponents.
Only one Dolphins opponent this year has had a positive and pass
rate over expected. And I, I guess it's, it's not
like even the Jaguars were -7 last last week, week eight, they
saw a -, 2%. So I, I, I know they it there's
you don't have this huge sample size with two of playing, but
it's it still feels like they're a bit of a run funnel there.
Yeah, I I certainly think that the most likely thing is the
dolphins are a run funnel and the most likely thing is the
bills want to run the ball. So it definitely makes me lean
towards thinking that that the bills will have lower pass
volume in this game. However, you do have the the
wild card factor of the Dolphins with Tua can go out and they
they can hang 50 on you in the blink of an eye with the Tyree
killer Devana Chan explosive play, apparently not a Jalen
Lotto explosive play. Those just don't exist anymore.
Although it would be a really fun week for Jalen Waddle to
just explode and show us that yes, he is a very viable third
threat on that offense. So I think you're out.
To the Bills, if you're. So if you're playing the Bills,
you have to play through the Dolphins.
Yeah, if you're playing the Bills, if you're playing Josh
Allen specifically because his price is is pretty high.
But if you're playing Josh Allen specifically, I really, really
want to have one of the Dolphins explosive playmakers on my team
to try and push the pace. Yeah, that, that, that makes
sense for sure. And I guess just just given what
you've laid out, laid out there, I, I, I do think that Josh Allen
picked 12.4. Now this is I think this is for
mainly on 6 AM 16 drafts and then Chua took about a low at
35.6. And then if you need Tua to go
off to unlock the bills, that that would push me to like
actually preparing Tua this week over over Josh Allen.
Yeah, Tua is free. You can get him in the last
round. I actually built something that
gives me the ADP in the dog bowl draft specifically.
And so I've got the Josh Allen ADP here.
He's averaging pick 14.3 in the dog bowls.
He's gone as late as pick 22 and as early as pick 8.
And by the way, the person who got him at pick 22 is yours
truly. So I'm willing to take him if he
goes all the way to pick 22. That's that's certainly fine.
And then just very happy to, to play it as I, I've played this
game as an onslaught quite, quite often here because I think
there's a chance that this ends up being one of those really fun
games where, you know, you get 80 points or something silly
like that. So if I was to, but if I was to
and I think Chua is like a smart contrarian play and because it's
not as it's not as popular as it should be based on what you
would have taught going into this season and based on results
last year, it does look like they're their online hasn't been
good like I see. Yeah, Chua, not sure how many
drop backs he's had, but you had just 2.28 time to throw a six
point 4A dot. And I, I I guess like not not
great efficiency. So I, I guess I want to put some
credence into the negative results this year that the magic
hasn't been there, but with the way that you can play as
contrarian as you can, it makes sense to do.
Yeah. And it's it's pretty small
sample that we have for two so far.
And I also think a big part of the A dot is is coming from it
is coming from the Devana Chan schemed touches here where
they're, you know, doing these very short behind the line of
scrimmage targets for him. So I think that's probably
depressing some of the A dot work.
But it's still 6.4, right Like that, that's, that's really low.
That's one of the lowest of an of any quarterbacks this year.
Well, they, you know, the Dolphins are a pretty run heavy
team. They're not getting a ton of
pass attempts and a chance getting an enormous amount of
targets. If you look at how many targets
he's actually in the games that Tua has played, I think it's
what 7 targets, 8 targets and eight targets or something like
that. So like a, a large percentage of
the offense or the past attempts are going for zero to negative A
dot. So if you, if you remove that,
it definitely boosts the A dot up a little bit.
And also I, I, I don't really think that those are necessarily
a bad thing for Tua's production or efficiency either 'cause I
think any of those targets can end up being house calls.
So I'm I'm really interested in I I think the whole Dolphins
offense is a buy low. I'm pretty sure they're still
priced down on DraftKings as well.
I believe that Tyreek is still like in the low 7 thousands this
week and he's just not he's not a.
Right, I know that he's he's a pick 14 on on underdog.
And if you had a told somebody that Tyreek Hill would be pick
14 and and and and weekly like they, they wouldn't have
believed you. Well Tyree Ty, I think his ADP
is something like 8 but his his average ADP in the dog bowls is
6 1/2. His ADP is going to be screaming
up and by the OH. Oh, yeah, you're right.
You're right. I misquoted that, that that's,
that's his projection in the app.
But his ADP is 8. You're right, you're right.
Yeah, now a Chan had an ADP early in the week of say, 20
something. He's never gone that late in a
dog bowl. He's got an average of just
under pick 14 and the latest he's ever gone is pick 19.
But yeah, I, I think you, you want to be attacking this
Dolphins offense before they give you the big explosion,
explosion game like we know they're capable of.
And I I like the spot for it because the Bills certainly can
push them. And I think the Bills can can
fight back if the Dolphins do happen and get out to an early
lead. So.
And then I guess if, if I'm, if I'm arguing against myself,
their, their PFF online grade is 16th overall and the the pass
block win rate and for ESPN is is 10th overall.
So maybe the online has actually played better than him than some
of those numbers would suggest. And they are actually, they are,
they are actually fully capable of still pushing the ball down
the field. And it's definitely you're,
you're, you're not having to pay Dolphins prices right now.
No. And I mean, even even last year,
Tua had a really low time to throw even when pushing the ball
down the field. They're just they that's that's
what happens when you have like the fastest player in the NFL
running routes. You can actually still target
him down the field. Just it, it was low, but 2.3 is
exceptional. And yeah, I'm I'm going to look
that up and look up what what his was last year.
And, but I guess the the other and the other one that I kind of
like that caught my eye was Matthew Stafford here where a
lot of his, his efficiency has been kind of per this year over
the full year. But that's been missing Pooka,
that's been missing Cooper Cook. But then they also when you look
at last week, week eight, they tore the kind of like heralded
at Minnesota Vikings defence. And so if they're able to do
that because Puke is back, because Cooper Cup is back, then
there's the Seattle defence is is a pretty enticing matchup
too, I would think. Yeah, I, I really like this game
in general. I think pretty much all of the
pieces in this game are underpriced right now.
On Underdog, Puka has an ADP like near the end of the first
round. I would say Puka's probably
should be going in like the top six, top seven.
And then you get Kenneth Walker. He's like, you know, some
ridiculous ADP. He's been screaming up though
too, but he was, he was going middle of the second round and
dog bowls. He's he's coming up a lot and
Stafford is entirely free now. It's not a state secret.
I've actually seen a decent number of people drafting
Stafford this week. Right.
It's so hard for me to believe that that's like a like a, a, a
thing that nobody else will see. Yeah, now I'm pretty sure that
when projections come out still, he's he's probably gonna barely
be on the on the threshold of like a top 12 QB this week just
because he's a pocket passer. You know, the the game does have
a pretty good total, but I I think people might be a little
gung ho for him. Now.
It's not translating into like an untenable ADP or anything
like that. He's available in the last round
every time. It's just you're not going to
sneak by like a an undrafted or very low owned Matt Stafford
like you, you would have been able to in previous weeks.
But I I've seen lots of right that's still.
Kind of a smashed price where it it like this is a pretty strong
set up for Matt Seiford for like a pretty good pocket passer and
and definitely relative to the prices of other guys it it seems
pretty enticing. Yeah, let me let me take a look
at where he's been. And.
And and what while you're looking that up and you're
right. So last year choose average time
to throw was 2.25. So it's his is, is time to throw
here is actually pretty good point that it's pretty
characteristic of it was last year.
It's within .03 seconds of last year.
And so yeah, you're, you're right this like that.
That's not a yeah, that's definitely not a reason to shy
away at all. So yeah, Matt, Matt Stafford
goes pretty late. He he's got an average price of
going in the last round. Couple guys that go like right
before him on average. Caleb Williams, who I, I
probably prefer Stafford to Williams this week.
You've got, let's see here, Bo Nix has gone before him on
average DAC, DAC is, is. That's actually an interesting
one. What do you think about DAC
versus Stafford straight out? I mean, I think you have to, I,
I think Stafford is a much better position.
Like, I don't, I don't think, I, I don't think I put too much
between like if I, if somebody put a gun to my head and said
who's the better quarterback, it would be hard for me to decide.
And then I think it's a much better set up for Stafford than
Dundac, where they actually have multiple talented players on the
offense. Yeah, I think, I mean you're,
you're definitely right in that regard.
I do think the game total is, I want to say it's like 3 points
higher for for Dallas. Let me let me pull it up here.
But I do know both of these are are two of the better game
totals on the week. But let's see, we've got 4.
Dallas, the game total is up at 53.
So that is actually the highest total on the week.
And then for the Rams and Seahawks, it's at 48 1/2.
That one's basically a pick. You know, just one, one point
there. Cowboys and Falcons also pretty
close spread, only two point spread there.
So both these games should be competitive according to the
lines and they should have lots of points.
But I think in general there I'm I'm just going to default to the
higher line when I you know, the higher implied team total when
I've got 2 spots where I think they're pretty even.
And also Dallas has like next to no ability to score rushing
touchdowns like, and the Rams do really like scoring rushing
touchdowns like that is that is all Kyron Williams knows how to
do. So I think I'd probably lean DAC
there. But that's not to say that
Stafford's a bad pick by any means.
And I I think they're both viable, certainly.
That is so like that is so wild to me that Dallas has a higher
implied team total than than the Rams.
That doesn't doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
But I guess Vegas, Vegas knows better.
Yeah, four and a half, 4 1/2 more points.
I don't understand that. Sorry.
And that's that's a game. The game total is 4 1/2 more.
Right, the game total. So they probably have like two
extra like points. So yeah, I mean, I don't I don't
I think that's kind of like a a reason to it's almost like a
tiebreaker rather than anything else, right.
But yeah, I have AI just have a hard time believing that given
how given like just a complete lack of talent on that offense
other than like those two players stock on SCD Lab.
Yeah, I mean, they, they've certainly looked atrocious.
I, I don't, I don't really want to be hitching my wagon to that
offense, but I, I mean, I do think that they're capable of
scoring. I don't want to say that a ton
of the dysfunction was due to not having any semblance of a
running game with Rico Dowdle being ruled out, but we'll we'll
certainly touch on that later. Another quarterback spot that I
think is is interesting to talk about here.
We've got Jameis Winston. Now part of the Jameis Winston
stuff for why he looks like such an outlier on the chart for the
expected fantasy points from passing is I think we we have in
the game where he took over part of the way through.
So we don't have the full game there.
So it's it's kind of making him look like he's throwing a lot
less than he actually was. But he was very efficient, you
know, put up, put up a pretty big game.
They get a tough defense here this week against the Chargers.
So last week, no, I'm on the wrong page, I'm on this.
I'm sorry for interrupting, I'm not knowing the answer.
But that they do get a really tough defense this week and the
Chargers, I think it's going to be a really hard spot.
They had they had 20.4 expected points from from passing against
the Ravens. OK.
And and then, then, then he had 25 or actual points from, from,
from passing. And that's a pretty clear run
pass funnel. Yeah, but.
The the, the defense is much tougher this week, you were
saying? Yeah, I I do think it's going to
be a really fragile spot to project though, because, you
know, we've got a decent history with Jameis, but not a not a ton
with Jameis as a Brown operating in the context of this offense.
So it definitely feels like a a fragile spot for the projection
for me. I think really like the, the
actual interesting conversation surrounding Jameis and the
Browns offense is more about like which piece to play it
through. And I'll, I'll tell you right
now, it's it's all going to be coming through like Joku and
Tillman is what I would anticipate most people wanting
to do. Let me pull up the Jameis
Winston combinations here. So the most common Jameis
Winston combinations #1 is Cedric Tillman #2 is David and
Joku. And then after that, you know,
that's, that's pretty much those are the only combos that are
happening at like a much higher frequency than just random
chance. So so.
I, I guess I, I don't know how, how right this is, but as I look
at some of the PFF grades for the Chargers defense, they're
like pretty mid table in pass rush and coverage and then not
the best and run defense and tackling.
I think they're like kind of like bottom mid table apparently
elite special teams, but at PFF certainly doesn't think that
they're like some some often some defense that you need to
just stay away from. Yeah, the so the chargers are
fifth in EPA allowed per drop back, 10th in drop back success
percentage, 13th in explosive pass percentage.
They're pretty bad at defending the splash zone.
They're 29th in splash zone EPA per drop back.
And they also give it up to first reads a lot, 22nd in first
read EPA. But yeah, you're, you're, you're
not wrong. They're they're pass pass rush
win rate grade is low and their time to pressure is worse than
the league. So they're and their.
Schedule here is pretty, it's pretty cooked cake where they
played the Raiders, they played the Panthers, they played the
Steelers, they played the Chiefs, they played the Broncos
and they played the Cardinals and the Saints.
So like, but if, if I, if I like there's, there's some like not
the worst teams in there, but if I put all that together, like
that's four or five, like pretty like teams that were playing
pretty awful offense like the Raiders, Panthers, Broncos and
Saints, like that's you'd want to have some pretty good
advanced metric against those defenses, Yeah.
That's a that's a good shout and I I think it's an interesting
angle. So then really the only flying
ointment to me that that would have me at all stopping from
just really aggressively attacking this game where, you
know, there, there's only so much you can do as far as
projecting Jameis Winston, like you just, you can't go out and
be like, Yep, Jameis is going to Chuck it for 300 every week and,
and three touchdowns. Like that's, that's what he's
going to do. I think I, I would assume that
most of the like publicly available projection systems,
you know, the, the good projections that you're going to
be paying for, like at ETR and stochastic are going to have him
for like a pretty high pass rate just because that's what the
Browns have shown us they want to do.
They're they're happy to be in above PROE team.
And now they have Jameis Winston, they, they probably
feel a little free to even attack that more.
So the only fly in the ointment is that the Chargers are slow
and they they want to run the ball a bunch, right?
So the Chargers can really sour the game by just like slowing
everything down. But yeah, I, I, you know.
From and then I guess the only question is like, will they
actually be able to run on the Browns like that?
That cuz that that could be like a thing, a setup where they try
to establish the run, they fail and then the the Browns actually
end up with a lot of possessions because the the Chargers can't
get it going like this is a very strong Browns defense.
The the Chargers run the charge rushing offense has been pretty
bad too. They're 21st in EPA per rush,
21st in rush success rate, 31st in run grade.
Like they're they're decent at run block win rate, but you
know, only 13th there and and Dobbins has not looked fantastic
either. So.
Right, He's serviceable, He's fine.
Like I I probably might even play him.
And because of his how much he dominates the snap right there.
But this is a very this is a very good strong Browns defense.
And Tim, that that would that would almost be a point to
pushing me like into still playing the Browns.
Yeah. And the more you say say that, I
was like, OK, so this is a team that wants to pass the ball a
lot with a quarterback who is a very aggressive passer.
Is he always good? No, but he's aggressive.
So he's going to put up. He's probably going to put up
numbers. I don't know if you want to play
it true Ajamiz, Ajamiz Stock, I think you certainly can, but
it's AII. That's a pretty interesting
offense to to get pieces off. Yeah, and, and let me, let me
just to like discuss the charger side of the ball and how it can
relate to the, the game script here.
They've actually been passing more lately.
So I'm going to read you the, the pass attempts for the first
five weeks of the season or well, first four weeks, cause
Chargers had a buy first four games, Chargers played 26
attempts, 20 attempts, 18 attempts, 27 attempts.
So those are the first four weeks.
No attempts, no, no games over 30 attempts.
Really, really low passing volume, you know, just
atrocious. Then starting with their game
against Denver, so strong, strong pass defense, 34 attempts
there 39 attempts against the Cardinals two weeks ago, 32
attempts against the Saints in a a pretty easy win.
They they weren't forced to pass here at all.
And Justin Herbert's had 237 yards, 349 yards and 279 yards
in the last three games. So the trend is definitely
upward for the right passing game and.
And that's, that's kind of like held up by the password over
expected where in week Six 2%, week seven 4%, week eight 5%.
So like that's three weeks in a row of above neutral password
over expected. And like finishing with five, 5%
is pretty it's, it's, it's not like humongous, but it's pretty
solid. Yeah, we are.
We are not a betting show and I do not bet any sides or totals,
so I don't know what the fuck I'm talking about.
But looking at this line, Chargers Browns is at 42, one of
the lowest lines on the week. I think the only line that's
lower is Patriots Titans at 38. Yeah, so Chargers Browns second
lowest line on the week. It's the same line as Texans and
Jets. I mean, this feels kind of like
a sneaky over spot to me, right? The more we talk about this
game, the more interested I am in attacking it on both sides.
And I the other thing that's really interesting is Lad
Mcconkey is still free in dog bowl drafts and he like he was
very clear that the Chargers wide receiver won prior to this
week. And then he has this huge
breakout and, you know, displays like the some of the things that
made us so excited about the profile that he can win
downfield. He's you know, he's a very good
athlete. He's good with the ball in his
hand. So I mean, he's free.
And then circling all the way back to the thing I was first
saying about the Browns, people are going hard on Cedric Tillman
and David and Joku. Elijah Moore was the target
leader. And, and I don't think it's it's
crazy to say that the touchdowns that went to Cedric Tillman
could very easily have gone to Elijah Moore instead.
And I haven't seen the first read data yet, but I would bet
you dollars to Donuts that Elijah Moore was probably
getting the grip of the first read stuff just the way that his
his profile has been in the past.
I'm making an assumption here. So like when when Pat comes out
with the walkthrough later this week, and like, that's not the
case, I'm happy to be wrong. But my assumption prior to
looking at the first read data is I, I would bet you that
Elijah Moore is the one getting that first read stuff.
And that has been where the Browns are kind of weak.
So as as teams, really, Yeah. Excuse me?
But what we don't, we don't have the first read data and we do
have the targets. And so week eight, he had a 33%
targets per out run, 11 targets, 85 yards and 2.6 yards per out
run. So that that he's the one like
he he's he's there. He was their main target in that
game. And then because Cedric Tillman
had the like very high profile touchdown at the end, that's
kind of still in the spotlight and but Elijah Moore pretty
attractive there. Yeah, and yeah, Brown's.
And this is as of last week, Brown's defense first read EPA
for a drop back 24th in the league.
And I I think that speaks to teams trying to get the ball out
quick against their pass rush. So kind of like Elijah Moore
this week, he's going to be free.
So yeah, I I really like that spot here.
And Elijah Murray, who plays for the Browns.
So you were saying that you were saying that the Chargers are
weak against the first read stuff.
No, no, no. The Browns.
The Browns are 2020 fourth in the league.
OK, Read EPA for drop back on defense.
OK. OK.
So that that would be suggestive for Lad Mcconkey.
Yes. OK.
But I think earlier you had that same point about the Chargers.
I believe it's true for both. Let me go pull the Chargers back
up. I think the Chargers are a
little bit worse there. Let's let's find out.
Chargers pass defense first read EPA.
Yeah, 22nd. So yeah, they're they both are
not great. And yeah, Chargers very weak at
defending the splash zone. So yeah, that I think that
that's kind of interesting. Like I'm worried because the
Browns defense is that good that that that gives me the one
concern. And but I, it's such a
contrarian play that I, I, I think you can kind of like look
through that. Yeah, I'm I'm pretty into this
game. I'm I'm sneakily into this game
now the these numbers are I don't know if we can throw them
out entirely, but it's going to be hard to rely on these since
most of these came with Deshaun Watson.
But Elijah Moore first percentile in splash zone target
rate Tillman and Judy both about the same 40th and 49th
percentile respectively. So who knows?
Right, I mean here like I guess we we don't have the we don't
have the the just isolated the gym is and stats.
But to me, it doesn't have to be any more complicated than Elijah
Moore, main target earner and on this team in in his first game
and the game without and what what's the what's the guy who
they traded and Amari Cooper. I don't think it actually has to
be any more complicated than like he's the main guy getting
targets. He's completely under the radar
because of the Cedric Tillman touchdown and he should be a
target. Yeah, definitely agree.
Are there? And that's that's the same for
Ram. I think that that I know we're
on the quarterback part, but I think he's a pretty compelling
and waiver target as well. Like if he shouldn't be under
the radar, but like if he is like he's a pretty it doesn't it
doesn't get much better of a of a waiver Tiger target down at
Lejimur. Yeah, absolutely.
Were there any other quarterbacks you wanted to touch
on or? Should we?
No, no, I'm ready to move on. OK, on to the Yeah, on to the
running backs. And so I guess my my notes here
where the first one being the kind of obligatory nod to Kyron
where he he is the running back dominator.
He is the one they want to get in in the end zone.
Have been doing that every game. And then with that offense now
playing well with the return of their two star receivers, like I
think Tyron is basically RB one this week and it doesn't seem
like he's priced like that. Maybe that changes closer
towards the game and but to me he's pretty clear RB1.
You think he's RB one this week? Yeah.
Yeah, it's he's definitely, he's one of the stronger spots on the
week. The the other guys who like go
ahead of him be Alvin Kamara, who also has a very strong role
and is going against. The hamsters.
So to me, Kamara is kind of like a safe project, projectable
volume play where yes. And what's?
Sorry, go ahead. Oh, I I was just agreeing with
you. And where he's went in the in
the games where they're doing pearly and he's just getting
force fed targets. I guess if they if they are able
to do well against his Panthers defense, it will be true Camara.
But given like the systemic issues with the offense, and I
know he had this hot start to the year Camara did, but that
hasn't really continued. And maybe maybe I have egg on my
face this time next week, but to me that that that that doesn't
scream GPP play like it doesn't like he's priced as or be one
and like, and I'm not I'm not saying that he's like he's like
a bad play. It just I think Kyron is a
better play. Like I tell me what?
Tell me what Camara has that Kyron doesn't in terms of
volume, and then tell me why he's going to be more efficient
than like a young, better player.
He he will not be more Kamara will not be more efficient than
anyone, like full stop, you know, but the thing that Kamara
will do is he'll get all these stupid, really annoying targets.
You know, where he's he's just they, they've got him lying.
Why? Does not win your GPP though.
I mean to death, death by 1000 PPR scams can can certainly get
there. I mean, the guy had what, 15
points this last week and he, he did not look particularly.
Good. Yeah.
I mean 15 points like it's 15 points like you take that.
But without. Your that's getting popular.
It's without being in the end zone.
And now they're playing against the Panthers, who just seem
entirely hopeless on on defense. So I don't know.
I'm not. I certainly don't want to be the
one stumping for Kamara. I definitely think that there's
a strong case for Kyron to go over him.
The one that I think is. Right.
That's all I'm trying to say. All I'm trying to say is that
Kyron, like it's to me it's pretty clearly Kyron over
Kamara. The one that now, it's not like
this guy's going overlooked or anything, is AD PS about 6.
So he's still going in the first round, but I think Derrick Henry
is probably getting a little too much hate for this match up.
So they're playing against the Broncos.
And I think people are reading into it too much through the
lens of like, oh, the Broncos are a really strong defense,
therefore bad for Derrick Henry. And I think Derrick Henry
doesn't really give a shit one way or another how good or bad
your run defense is. I think what Derrick Henry and
his production cares about is more what is the game script for
the Ravens and the Ravens are 10 point favourites in this game.
And so I, I mean, when the Ravens get the Ravens are such a
bipolar team where when they are in a situation where they think
they need to be passing, they are like all in on the passing,
like Derrick Henry get off the field, it's Justice Hill time.
And we saw that in the first half of their game two weeks ago
where Henry only got, I think it was like only four touches in,
in the entire first half because Justice Hill was on the field
the whole time. But when the Ravens get ahead,
they flip the switch and all of a sudden it's Derrick Henry
time. I just see this as a game where
the Ravens could be ahead pretty early and it could be right
here. I mean.
But I guess my pushback would be, don't you think like that
being 6th overall is like an appropriate discount with his
game script risk? Like none of these other guys
have that kind of like game script risk in, in, in their
profile. They all, they all have upside
like that's why they're in the first round.
But I think he should be cheaper just because of that additional
risk that you don't have with those other guys.
Yeah, that's reasonable. I I might just be discounting
the game script risk too much because.
Right, the base base is. There isn't any.
Yeah, getting a temporary spread implies that it's going to be
pretty damn tough for the Broncos to to be right in a
strong position of this game and and dictate the pass to the
Ravens. So that's right.
That's the most likely scenario. It is that they're ahead, is
that they yam is that they established the run and like
they get their Henry going. And but I I guess to me it's
it's almost like, well, those other like that.
That's something that you need to have happen that you don't
need for those other players. So even if it's like a 70
percent, 7580% chance, that's still a 20% chance that your
guy, your first, your 6th overall pick and just gets game
scripted out of the game. Yeah, one of the one of the guys
I thought was really interesting on this chart is Tony Pollard
with no Taje Spears is up here just with an absolute workhorse
role. There's yeah, and last two weeks
he's 85% SNAP, right? Couple couple warts on the frog
here, though #1 Mason Rudolph's quarterbacks.
That's not great #2 they're playing.
It's the Patriots who the Patriots have been bad against
the run this last week. They actually weren't quite as
bad, frustratingly for anyone with Reese Hall in fantasy.
But but also the the game total is just so low.
So it's hard for me to see like the Super huge like Pollard
ceiling just seems a little bit more capped to me than someone
like a Tyron Williams just has such a better ceiling than Tony
Pollard, right? It's just the offense is so much
better, substantially better game environment, you know all.
That stuff. But Pollard, Pollard was
somebody who still gave it to me too.
Where and nowhere else are you getting this kind of well and in
very in very few other places are you getting that kind of
snapshare where you know they're going to dominate the
backfields. And he is going very, very
cheap, very, very cheap. And and I could definitely see
like there's been much stranger things than the Titans having a
good game against like a pretty weak Patriots defense.
Yeah, I, I, I like him a lot this week.
You know, he's definitely a pretty good price adjusted guy
too. Like he goes relatively cheap
for his role, right? He's like a fantastic running
back to take in the dog bowls when you went early wide
receiver or you took one of the early quarterbacks or something.
And so you're just like, you're really behind the 8 ball at
running back and Tony Paul was just sitting there with like
what feels like a floor of 15 touches, you know, so.
Right, so he had he had 16 expected points last week, which
it is pretty good. He the problem is he massively
on the performance that because the offense has been kind of dog
shit, but maybe they can be pretty good against them.
I mean, the the Titans did pretty good against the Dolphins
defense and I, I don't I don't think the Dolphins defense is
any like is, is is considerably worse than the Patriots defense.
So, like, to me, it's such a a clearly possible outcome that he
smashes against his Patriots defense.
Yeah, definitely a a good call on Pollard.
I I like him there. You had a a good note about
Dijon. Now I believe that in this last
week, correct me if I'm wrong, didn't he he got like a 60 yard
touchdown call back? Am I?
Am I misremembering this? I I don't remember that.
I think you're probably right. Just because I don't remember, I
might have been distracted by something else when it happened.
Yeah, it's but. I, I, but I think it, it, the
underlying point, it's, it's, it's true.
It's truly, it's truthful. Even even I don't know if it's
if it's true, but he is a very explosive playmaker and, and he
clearly it's helpful that he dominates the, the route stuff.
He, he dominates the passing game and work.
It's unfortunate that he has to split the, the carries and, and,
and my note here was that even when Algier missed time, they
brought in Jason McClellan, the split with Bijan instead.
So clearly they're interested in keeping him fresh because he's,
he's, he's one of their stars. They want to make sure that
they're not they're not overloading him with these like
low impact carries. I wish they they'd overload them
with some more of the goal line looks.
But he's still like to me, he's still interesting because when
you look at his expected points, 15 expected points for the year,
that's still pretty good. That's still pretty good at
projection. And he's also been delivering
efficiency. And so you, you, you can get
this, you can get this guy. And I think he's, he's, he's had
games like this where his, his projection or his expected
points is like 15 and then he goes 10 over or 15 over.
So you get your you get your 3030 overall points.
So I I think that's AI think he's a like I I don't think
that's him. That's news to anybody, but
pretty good play. But, and that's how to think
about him, I think. Well, and he's also in that
Cowboys game with, you know, highest, highest total on the
week against a terrible run defense.
I mean, I don't believe that that Parsons is going to be
back. I haven't haven't been checking
in on his injury status, but I believe the Cowboys are still
going to be without their two best defenders for DeMarcus
Lawrence and Micah Parsons. So this could be, I know a
couple weeks ago people were talking about the Dijon against
the Panthers spot is like the IT sets up for oh, this is the get
right spot for Dijon. He has to go off here or it's
over. I think we might be getting
another one of those really excellent spots for Dijon this
week. So he's definitely someone I'm
into playing here. Yeah, it makes sense.
Makes sense for sure. My next note was about Jameer
Gibbs, where he's just so clearly splitting the carry,
splitting the carries and you're only getting like 12 expected
points. And so to me, at his cost at
where he went in basketball season, it's been great to see
him make the big explosive plays.
But just like in, in kind of single week stuff kind of need
to note that you, you, you do need, you need the big runs, you
need the big home run plays from him like that, that, that that's
how he gets there. Yeah, it's, it's tricky because
when we get players like this, you know, we a, a lot of times
we just want to lean into it and say this guy's shown that he can
deliver these fantasy breaking plays.
You know, it just just takes 1 and I don't know why I have some
some internal bias that's like stopping me from being so gung
ho about Jamere Gibbs. Like I would be about Devana
Chan or or like I I mean, I know.
What what a Chan is always cheaper so it's like what?
Why? Why don't I play the Gibbs price
when I can just get the same profile for?
And and a Chan's work, Chan's role is so much better where
he's getting, you know, 6 high value touches minimum a game.
He's getting all these targets right.
And Gibbs just isn't getting as much stuff in the passing game
as we would like. So I, I mean, I think Gibbs is
really good. It's just because I feel like
we're being we're being forced to pay up for that extreme
efficiency, which like we should have to pay for it, but it's I'm
starting to feel like it's probably priced to the point, I
mean, at least in these weekly draft games where he's priced
efficiently his his average. It's a different price.
I think that's a good way to put it.
So he let me let me read you a couple options this week and and
you tell me who you want here, Devana Chan or Jameer Gibbs.
We we touched on it's a Chan. Kenneth Walker.
Jameer Gibbs. I think you want Kenny.
I think you want Kenneth Walker. James Cook against the Dolphins
or Jameer Gibbs. And I think that's close.
I think you've got kind of similar issues for Cook where
they want to get other guys involved and and you're you're
paying for the possibility of really good efficiency.
Yeah, I think those two are pretty close.
I think that's kind of, you know, a pretty similar
archetype. I I mean Gibbs, so.
I guess if, if I'm arguing against myself, I I kind of said
that going into my head if I'm arguing against myself and he
did get 17 rush attempts last week.
So to me actually like reviewing that, that 17 rush attempts, 72
plays so and not on the field for half the plays.
So actually, and I'm I'm, I'm going to I'm going to go back to
what I originally said, where if he's only on the field for half
the place, very similar to Gibbs, you you're paying for the
possibility of efficiency. Very similar role.
And just because he had a high play, he had a high play count
last week. And that's because the Buffalo,
the Bills had a high play count. And even though he's only
getting half of that, that half looks pretty big.
Yeah, I think I yeah, as I think about it, I think I'm Gibbs
Overcook, but it's close. I mean, I'm I'm tie breaking.
Like, the Lions have a better offensive line and the touchdown
equity for Gibbs is probably slightly better than Cook given
the Josh. It's much better.
It's much better right where where Josh Allen is is going to
steal touchdown. You do you have David Montgomery
stealing some touchdown equity from Gibbs.
So I think it's, it's close, but I, I do think it's Gibbs over
Cook, but I think they're closer than than people would think.
Right, right. Agreed.
And my my moving on my next note.
So we talked about Kenneth Walker.
It does it does look like they've gotten sharps back
involved. So I think Kenneth walk Kenneth
Walker is still the main guy. He's dominating the rushes
between the 20s and then splitting the the targets,
splitting the goal and work. But so I, I, I want to interject
here, 'cause I, I watched this game and Sharbs is not really
involved until it started getting out of hand.
Like Kenneth Walker was in on pretty much all the goal line
stuff early. So this game had a couple really
frustrating sequences if you were invested in Kenneth Walker
for fantasy this week, which I was heavily.
So the Seahawks get the ball, it's first and goal, they snap
the ball, it goes 1,000,000 yards over Gino's head.
Kenneth Walker sprints the ball, manages to scoop it up and run
for a little bit of positive yardage, but it's still a 19
yard loss on the play. So he he gets credited for -19
rushing yards on that play. So that's not great.
Then they finally get back up to the goal line and it's looking
like it's going to be another Kenneth Walker rushing attempt.
False start on the offense. And so that's that's a big
bummer. And then a third one.
They're they're sitting there for this Kenneth Walker rush
attempt again, the ball was snapped.
It's going to be a hand off and the center steps on Gino's foot.
Gino falls down, the play is broken, no hand off.
So Kenneth Walker had three goal line attempts that should have
been that never were. And Charminet really wasn't
anywhere to be seen during these early, like the early portions
of the game. But I mean, this game got out of
hand. Yeah, you're right.
You're right. When I look when I look at these
utter weeks and when I look at the utter weeks, Kenneth Walker
clearly ahead in unexpected. OK, so I, I guess I'm, I'm
ending that statement to he's dominating, he's dominating the
carries in general. And then Charbonnet is is a is a
little bit involved in the passing game, which I think does
give him some level of standalone value.
I'm I'm a big sharps fan, but this game the the value that
came to Charbonnay really was just a a factor of like the game
to me. It felt like they were saving
Kenneth Walker. They the, the game was so bad
for the Gino. I don't know if you, you got to
watch all this game. Gino Smith was crying on the
sideline during this game, like actually crying.
He was so frustrated. Their offense could not get
anything going. And so the Seahawks didn't
totally wave the white flag, but they kind of waved the white
flag pretty early in this one. And and Sharp started getting
like full series rather than just like, you know, spelling
Kenneth Walker. And then in fact, the the
touchdown that Charbonnay got, I don't think Walker saw the field
at all in that drive. I want to say that it was like a
three score game point or something.
I, I do, if I look, if I look at a couple of games that they've
both been healthy and active for, Charbonnay has been kind of
consistently involved in the in the passing game.
He's been consistently involved with the getting, getting roots
like let me, let me let me look at the, the average for so
Chardonnay over the last four week average he's seen 22%
routes and versus 34% for Walker.
So that, that, that that's still like, I, I mean, 22% up and then
a, a 40% snap rate. It's like that's like, OK, yeah,
I don't, I don't think you're happy to start them.
I don't, I don't think that's anywhere near playable in GPP.
But I think if if if you have some 0B or B squads where you're
crying for like a running back start, I think Sharps is fine.
Right. Yeah, you could.
You could certainly do worse. But like, let's let's think
through. But and I guess the overall
point is this is Kenneth Walker's backfield.
I'm not trying to take away from that point, but I think that's
the overall point. But I kind of I kind of in
myself, a Todd of Chardonnay is like not even worthy of
consideration. And I think and for playing and
and and re drop and I and I think he is.
Yeah, the the list of guys that you you'd have to get through to
to need to start Chardonnay is like, you know, say Rico Dowdle
is active this week for the Cowboys.
You're still starting Rico Dowdle over Charbonnay, like
Chase Brown, Zach, What about Zach Moss?
You doing Zach Moss or Zach Charbonnay?
And yeah, Zach Moss, but they're, they're, I, I know that
there's some squads there where they don't have those guys.
And it's it's Sean Tucker or Charbonnay.
Right, right. Yeah.
Or or or something like that. There's some squads crying for
running backs and those are the squads that I'm talking.
I'm not talking about the ones where you've gotten solid 0 RB
hits and you're playing those guys.
Like I don't think, I don't think he's in consideration
there. I think he's, he's, I guess a, a
good desperation. Start.
Yeah. Like you're, you're starting on
the teams where you're waiting for Kamani Vidal to do
something. You're starting.
Sharpening, right? Right.
That's a good way to put it. The and.
The other one I had was Ramandre Curry, back in the workhorse
role, predicted I'm I'm kind of particularly notice notable with
the Anthony Gibson fumble and reminder famously benched but
not really benched for his fumbling issues in place of
Antonio Gibson. That didn't seem to last long.
Yeah, I think the reminder role feels pretty strong going
forward. I mean, with when you have Drake
May in there too, I, I think it's definitely helpful for
Ramondre just because the the defense then has to account for
Drake May's rushing ability. He's been a pretty effective
rusher. He was, I believe he was over 50
yards in this game before he went out with a concussion.
So yeah, Ramondre definitely a a very solid plug and play, you
know, low end RV 2 type of guy, high end RV 3, you know, really,
really the limitation just coming from how how bad the
offense is. The offense is made
substantially more exciting with Drake May We'll we'll have to
see if he misses a week due to the concussion.
I'd say it's pretty likely he misses a week.
That's just kind of the way things seem to go in the NFL
now. It's very rare that you have a
guy who's able to clear the protocol and and not miss a
game. So.
Right, right. Yeah.
But I mean, he's still a feature player for him.
So yeah, still pretty, pretty playable, especially in a kind
of a very cheap workhorse role. Yeah.
The other guy that you have a note on here that is in an
absolute workhorse role is JK Dobbins.
So I mean, he he had some pretty incredible efficiency to start
the season with some huge breakaway runs, really
propelling a lot of that efficiency.
Those have since dried up. I'm wondering if, you know,
we're if it was just like fluky that we got those at the start
of the season or if it was, you know, him having fresh legs
there. But yeah, if you look at where
Dobbins is on this efficiency chart, he's sitting in a pretty
good spot. He's right above 15 expected
fantasy points per game. He's getting a lot of work, but
it's been a lot less efficient lately.
I'm concerned that that's a a trend and has something to do
with Dobbins the player and not just, you know, random noise
from week to week. What are your thoughts on that?
Yeah. So obviously you started off
very efficiently and then now and over the last four weeks,
well, it's looks like it's the the the Chargers had to buy,
right? Church had a buy in week 5, yes.
It's, I guess it's, this is the last three weeks.
So he's been over the last three weeks he's been negative 1/2 so
-0.5 FPO over expected per game. And so like to me that's, that's
kind of neutral. I think like I'll take the I'll
I'll, I'll, I'll put some stock into that three-week average.
And the trend as you kind of noticed, noted the trend clearly
down. And so it some quest, there is
some question about where that bottoms out and where does it?
Yeah, where does the bottom out? I, I, I, I don't, I don't know.
And. Certainly not excited to play
him against the Browns this week.
No, but again, like, if you're in redraft, you're just starting
him cuz you're gonna get all, you're getting all the volume.
And so it's, it's like whatever, you're just, you're gonna,
you're gonna happily ho hum your way to, you know, 8 to 12
fantasy points there. You're you're just hoping he
falls in the end zone. Right, right.
He's not, he's not, he's not a priority.
I think he's probably like in dog bowl stuff.
He's probably like a a desperation play.
He's not the worst. Oh, I missed all the guys I
normally target. And when I get into this
situation, like I'll I'll take a shot on JK Dobbins because
because you do have that cheap volume.
Yeah, but I'm looking to find his ADP here.
So yeah, he goes right at the end of the fourth round.
So he's he's 4-5 turn, but he he does sometimes go like in the
very last couple picks of the draft, he might go undrafted
some. So he's.
Yeah. And so he had, we started off 13
over expected points over expected 10.7.
That was minus .4 -, 5.20 negative 1 1/2 zero.
And yeah, that that feels like you're getting getting somebody
who's pretty close to neutral and the the Browns defense
definitely scares you off where? To.
See how they're able to effectively establish an older
back like that against a tough defense.
Let me ask you about a couple running backs compared to
Dobbins this week, just straight up.
So Dobbins versus James Conner, where Connor gets the Bears
here. And that that feels like you
probably, you'd probably do James Conner where he has to be
a key player for them and for them to kind of get going, they
they need James Connor to get going.
Dobbins versus Chuba Hubbard where Chuba gets the really weak
Saints run defense. And it's probably that that's
that feels really close. And I'd probably be do Chuba,
probably Chuba. Yeah, I think I'm, I think I had
Chuba as well here. OK, one, one other note that we
have to talk about that you had here was on Tyrone Tracy and the
split that he had with Devin Singletary.
I mean, it was about a 6040 split like you mentioned.
But my goodness, if Tracy did not look like the far superior
player he was. He was absolutely electric.
I'll just try to have a cannon. And then Singletary looked a lot
more pedestrian. Yeah, the the one, it's not even
a knock on Tracy, but the one thing I noticed just from
watching him is he was he was playing a lot bigger than he
like he was running through guys, he's breaking tackles.
But there were a couple times, like there was a shot where they
showed him going to the sideline and taking a breather after a a
series of plays where he was just putting the team on his
back, just doing doing the most for them.
And he is absolutely gassed on the sideline.
Like he is just dying on the sideline with, I mean, the guy
was having a, you know, career performance.
But I, I wonder if they they probably need to keep this
closer to like 5050 or at the very least, like even if they
keep it 6040, like the amount of volume that they put on Tracy's
plate. I don't know if it can, can be,
you know, sustained at the level that he got here.
Sure would be fun because he's a he's an awesome player.
And now the other really interesting thing, he does leave
the game with a concussion. So you get Singletary and and
Eric Gray will be involved, but I, I would assume that
Singletary is back on his bullshit this week with, you
know, just totally. No, he he has to dominate the
touches this week. And they they get the commanders
poor run defense. So what do you what?
What's singletary? Or or JK Dobbins?
I, I, I have to, I have to pick singletary.
So yeah, you've kind of you like when you see all those utter
cheap volume plays. JK Dobbins doesn't look actually
that peeling like I I prefer a lot of those guys to Dobbins.
Yeah, yeah, I I've been pretty interested in Singletary.
He goes undrafted in the dog bowls.
I'm the only person who has drafted him so far in any of the
rooms that I am in. So wow.
So there, there's there's your bit of alpha.
Go fuck up my unknown Devon Singletary play, you bastards.
OK, the other the other backfield split where we've got
a fun back and a less fun back. Not to say anything bad about
Devin Singletary. I really like Devin Singletary
and I I think he's a better player than this other boring
back that we're going to talk about.
But the Rashad White Bucky Irving stuff now do we have I'm
looking for Bucky. I don't think he's on this
efficiency. Oh no, he is there he is.
He's right next to Romandre Stevenson, Chuba Hubbard.
So he's right in the middle here in that 10 to 15 expected
fantasy point band. So the encouraging stuff for
Bucky is he's getting more involved in the passing game,
which seems that's kind of like a logical conclusion that we
could make given the injuries to the receivers.
Glad to see him starting to wrestle some of that away from
Rashon White. But Rashon White does not look
like he's going away it it. It does look like Sean Tucker is
going to be the one that's going to fade back into fantasy
irrelevance here. Yeah, the way I'm looking at it
is that White and Bucky Irving are Co starters.
Yeah, I like, I think, I think if I bet for Bucky Irving to
lead the team in carries the rest of the way, it definitely
looks like he's making it encouraging that he's making a
lot closer on routes. And then I also see that Irving
he's getting, he's starting to pick up some pass blocking snaps
assignments. And so that's that to me that
erode some of White's kind of like pass protector Moat.
And so I, I think, I think, I think that that's some pretty
encouraging stuff that Berkeley Irving's role is here to stay.
But I I agree with you where I am, I think White's going to
hang on to what he has right now.
Yeah, Let's go to the next running back efficiency chart
here, man. I mean, Joe Mixon probably just
by process of elimination has to keep this, this role going,
right? Steph Diggs dead out for the
season now. You know, I mean, Joe Nixon
looks good. Yeah, he hates India, but he
does. Yeah, he he's a really strong
play going forward. They're not on the main slate,
obviously. They are on the showdown
Thursday night slate this week. So they do get The Jets.
I believe it is, yes. I would.
I would expect this to be a disgusting game where with very
little play volume, you're you're dealing with slow Aaron
Rodgers, who wants to take all of the play clock down to 0 just
to show us how smart he is because he's absolutely
diagnosing and dissecting everything the defense is going
to do. He needs every last second of
that because The Sims are in his head.
And then you have the Texans who kind of seem like they just
don't really don't really want to throw the ball.
I mean, it makes sense that without Nico they're a little
less pass happy. But I mean, even with Nico they
they still were pretty run heavy.
So I I would expect this Thursday night game to be an
absolute slog. You're probably just going to
get a couple teams that want to run the ball over and over in
each bases. So.
You really need The Jets to get stuff going.
As of right now, it's, it's hard to see them get stuff going.
I, I think they certainly can. I, I think you certainly could
get that outcome where The Jets push the Texans a little bit.
And but yeah, it it, it, it's, it doesn't feel great.
Yeah. Your last note on running back
that you had here, I don't believe there's a guy that is on
this chart, but it's it's Rico Dowdell.
So there was some really interesting stuff surrounding
the Cowboys this week. Let's see if we can find them
here. I mean, Zeke Elliott's all the
way down here. Just barely above 5 expected
fancy points per game, and the Dalvin Cook's even lower than
that. But yeah, just so so everybody's
with us. You heard you heard some
conspiracy theories last week about the Cowboys running backs.
Yeah, so Dowdle, for anyone looking for him on the chart is
dead center right next to that Romandre Stevenson, Bucky
Irving, Shuba Hubbard cluster right smack dab in the middle
between 10 and 15 expected fantasy points a game.
So and I would say he's that's that's a pretty apartment
landing spot for him for what you're you're thinking you're
going to get out of him just kind of like that low end
running back to high end running back three type production.
The Rico Dowdle rumor mill was that the Cowboys always had
wanted to elevate Dalvin Cook off the practice squad coming
out of there by and they were not willing to make Zeke a
healthy scratch due to, you know, organizational loyalty to
Zeke or, you know, wanting to protect Zeke's ego or, or what
have you. But allegedly Rico Dowdle was
was not actually sick or if he was sick, it was not actually
something that was going to make him miss the game.
And the Cowboys, you know, essentially chose that.
Hey, sorry Rico, you're going to have to sit because Zeke can't
stand and and we do want to see what we have in Dalvin Cook.
So that's pretty concerning to me.
I don't think it's something that continues.
Because I don't believe that it's so bad.
I don't believe that I don't. I if, if they, if they were
doing that, if that was their plan to get a look at Dolphin
Cook, I think they would have given him more snaps.
I think they would have played him more.
This feels like a little bit more like their main player,
Rico Dowdell, or their main back was down was next man up in Zeke
Elliott. And then the Alvin Cook kind of
filled in as needed the rest of the way.
Like, and maybe, maybe I'm expecting too much logic from
the from the Cowboys, but I would have thought that if the
idea was to get a peek at Alvin Cook, they'd play them more.
Yeah, I, I just, I've unfortunately been subjected to
enough Cowboys bullshit in my life to, to kind of be able to
smell it when when I see it. And I mean, I initially was was
a little suspicious of the Rico Dowdle is sick here coming
coming off the bye sick, sick enough to miss the game too.
Like, think about think about what most of these players are
playing through. Like Kenneth Walker's like
puking his guts up out there on the field when he was sick after
his birthday. You know, whatever he was doing
in Atlanta. And and the guy's still out
there playing like Devo Samuel is playing through the game
with, you know, severe pneumonia that he's hospitalized for and
fluid in his lungs. Like, I'm just saying it takes
like these are some of the toughest bastards on the face of
the planet, you know? And, and also like Rico Dowdell
is not the kind of he's not a player who like is set for life
by any means. Like Rico Dowdell is getting a
day job after his stint in the NFL unless he can get a second
contract. So I mean, unless this guy's on
death's door, I don't really see him missing a game cuz he's
sick. It it really.
And just with all the all the language from the Cowboys about
Dowling Cook and how he had done everything that he needed to see
on the like, Oh God, it just it really reeked of, you know, the
classic Cowboys nepotism like, well, we can't, you know, we
love Zeke because Zeke is a cowboy for life and we can't
make him an active. And so Rico, you're just going
to play second fiddle here. And yeah, that's I, I'm just
suspicious of that. The The thing is.
And then there's like videos of him signing autographs.
Yes. Before the game.
Yeah, when when Rico walked out, you know, onto the sideline, he
again, you can't not you're not going to be able to tell just
from looking at someone on the outside, like if they're sick or
not. But guy seemed in pretty good
spirits and didn't didn't look terribly sick to me.
So I don't know, man, It it it smells smells fishy to me.
The I think the good news going forward though, is after seeing
Dalvin Cook in this game, they don't really think that you can
justify having him be on an active NFL roster anymore.
I I would hope that. They got their look at what the
backfield looks like without Rico Dowdell and they didn't
like it I bet. No, yeah.
I mean, Rico Dowdell has been described by McCarthy as a
bowling ball covered in, yeah, bowling ball full of butcher
knives. And the Zeke Elliott and Dalvin
Cook backfield looked like a a flat tire full of cotton candy.
Like, that shit was unwatchable, man.
The Cowboys continue to do just the inexplicable stuff of like
wasting it's first and 15. You're down 3 scores.
Let's hand it off to Dalvin Cook up the middle.
You know, like just. Right.
Unserious stuff. I mean you can the whole.
Should we Should we move on to the tight ends?
Yeah, let's get to tight ends here.
So this is our tight end utilization and efficiency chart
and we kind of we look at who's on the field for for these
routes. So the green bar that same
that's the percentage of team dropbacks that they're running a
route and then more pink bar, that's what they're pass
blocking. So that we kind of see and so we
paint the full picture of how much are on the field for their
team's drop backs. And I guess one thing that kind
of stands out here is Grant Palace, Sottera and with with
Dallas Goddard's injury, he's been playing pretty strong snaps
but not not doing a whole lot. Yeah, Calcatera, you know, is
you could do worse type of guy if you really someone off
waivers. But the thing that's that's
tough with Calcaterra is that the Eagles are not throwing the
ball very much. So you just, you know, you're,
you're a guy who's who's already.
Struggling. And these are calorie rats.
Yeah. These are empty color, low
calorie rats. Is is what I should say.
Yeah. Yeah.
So it's low calorie route, it's coupled with not a ton of them.
So that's, that's the problem here, man.
I I'm the guy who we, we talked about this last week that Kate
Auten was gonna be in an ascending role and, and again.
Oh yeah, he's, he's such a smash.
Yeah, like we talked about it. Balanced in our offense now.
Yeah, we talked about it in the offseason as well of he's a
young player. He's had a really high snap
share for his entire career and and we don't want to just say
that, you know, this young tight end is never going to be
anything because he's been a really boring like little rinky
dink couple targets a game type guy.
He had a true spike week in the playoffs last year.
And I think going forward, Kate Auten is like a locked in tight
end one, at least until you get Mike Evans back.
But he's he's a smash. I played, I think I had like
something absurd like 70% Kate Auten in DFS this last week.
And that that certainly paid off.
But he he's a smash going forward there.
There is another guy that actually fits into this
ascension archetype that Kate Auten got last week and that's
Evan Ingram. I mean, when it comes to Evan
Ingram, time is a flat circle. You know, you, you end up with
the Jags wide receiver core getting decimated by injuries.
And I would assume that we're going to see what happened last
year when that when we saw that and Evan Ingram's going to step
up and, and fill that target void.
I mean, the guy is is definitely good enough to earn the volume,
you know, when the competition dwindles like he can, he can
fill a lot of the target pie. He had a a pretty spectacular
catch too. I don't know if you got to watch
this game. Absolutely Moss some guys in the
end zone. I it was literally 3 Packers
defenders and Evan Ingram and he might as well have been covered
by nobody with how easy he made that catch look like.
He's a good athlete. I think the the A dot is more a
function of his role than anything reflective of his
skill. He's always been a low adot like
guy, but the the main thing he's getting the targets.
I mean, yeah, but the the tricky thing with like saying something
like he's always been a low adot guy is he played for the
feckless Giants with like Evan Ingram never played with a good
quarterback in his entire career or, or an offense that was going
to deploy him in a a role that would be more fun.
Like he played for the Giants when they had like, I believe he
got the very, very tail end of, of Eli's career when Eli was
just like, you know, they, they were about to take him out
behind the barn. And then also you got the
beginning of Daniel Jones career, which was not great.
And and so you get, you get him operating in in these roles,
he's like low. I mean, we're not.
We don't need to make that excuse for Brock Burrows.
But but you get this. You get this out of necessity
for Evan Ingram, I think more than anything.
And so, and that's not to say the role's going to change now,
like the role's still going to be this low A dot guy.
I just, I don't think we want to like use the low A dot to write
him off as a talent and say, oh, it's, it's just going to be this
like, and granted, he, he didn't do a ton with yak.
Like he's going to get great yak because he has low A dot.
But like even then it was a little uninspiring last year.
You're probably going to get the same stuff this year just
because, I mean, when Brian Thomas gets back, maybe it helps
him a little bit actually because he can still absorb some
of the target share, but have someone to take some attention
from the defense away. Anyway, all that that's a really
long way of saying I think Evan Ingram's a smash going forward.
I mean, he he's like a locked in top six, top seven tight end
rest of the season for me now. Yeah, Yeah, he definitely is.
I guess that the the concern is always like what Evan Ingram is
like you, you have that secure volume and you do have a secure
volume. But it is I think it's still,
it's still a question is like, is he one of the best tight ends
in the NFL? I, I, I, I don't, I don't think
he is. So when you compare, when you
compare where he was going in ADP this drafts, he was going
next to George Kittle, who is one of the best, who might be
the best tight end in the NFL. So I, I, I, I think that's some,
some somewhere that the question mark on talent.
I think he's clearly like an, an NFL, like strong, a strong NFL
player. But I think it's a, it's
definitely a a questionable this a big question mark on if he's
one of the best NFL players and and you've always have to pay
like a pretty high price for him.
Yeah, that's, that's reasonable. Yeah.
I, I, I was just more so thinking of the, the outlook
going forward for Evan Ingram is very strong.
Yeah, yeah. Like you said, top top seven,
top 8 and like pretty secure for.
Yeah, 11 last guy, 022 quick notes on this chart, David and
Joku. I mean, incredible upgrade is
from the quarterback standpoint, getting Jameis Winston continued
to build on a strong last couple of weeks.
I I think he's a really strong play going forward.
I'm, I'm just going to like shoot through these really quick
before you go on to the next one.
Sam Laporta sees a big target increase with Jameson out.
That was super encouraging to me.
I wasn't certain that it would materialize as much as it did,
but it definitely looks like his role might be revitalized as
long as Jameson is a waste. Yeah, yeah, we I had that noted
this kind of somewhere we got the like we there's still a
chance that it might be like a one week blip that like he just
happened to be more involved with the game plan this week.
But something to keep an eye out if we get another week of that
maybe maybe we're we're firing ass.
I'm afford to back up again. We're we're we're re lighting
the kennels. Yeah, last last one I wanted to
touch on. Dalton Kincaid gets in the end
zone this week, but man, every week feels like the same thing
for Dalton Kincaid. It's like 5 targets, 6 targets,
7 targets, 7 targets, 6 targets. And it's just all such short
little rinky dink stuff. And he really does not seem like
he can do anything with the ball in his hands.
He's like I, I feel like they kind of, he was billed as like
this. Oh, he's going to get all these
short, short targets and then rack up the yak like that's,
that's what he's going to do. Well, his A dot's a little
deeper this year than it was last year, but he's he's so much
closer to a catch and fall down guy than than a yak guy.
And it it just like his floor seems pretty secure.
But man, getting getting the actual ceiling seems tough.
Now if we see the bills continue, you know, or not
continue. But if we see them break their
early season trend of being really run heavy, I'm more
interested in Dalton Kincaid. But if they if they're back to
their old ways, you know, of, of just running the ball and and
sub 30 attempts a game like Dalton Kincaid is, is not
terribly exciting. You know, he's just he's a he's
a decent floor play every week because he's gonna he gets he
does get a lot of targets every week.
He. He's a floor play, he's a floor
player. Your ass kick.
Like it I think you're you're getting pretty close to the
Efrain Ingram profile and at least in terms of A dot and and
and different and different things.
But the problem is that they don't they they they're not like
the Jaguars might operate their offense.
True, Evan Ingram and Brian Thomas like that might that the
there's a possibility that they might do that that's amazing
offense. And but there's that that that
that's a possible outcome, whereas there's just no shot.
There's no chance that the Bills can operate an offense through
dog KK. Like, just not a hope like that,
that, that that's not an, an, an, an offense that is just
trying to run through Dalton Kincaid is not an NFL quality
offense. Yeah, let's, let's move on to
the second chart because we got a question in the chat that said
I think you forgot Mark Andrews on this graphic.
Nope, we didn't. He's just still here on this 30
to 60% of routes run now. As a note, his snap share did
increase this week as his highest snap share of the
season, all the way up to 74%. Yeah, he had a 74% route share,
79% snap on drop back share last week.
And and, and to me, I'm I'm taking that as somewhat signal
because it followed good play and he actually played
relatively, he played decently well.
And with that higher snap share. I like, I don't think we're
getting old Mark Andrews back anytime soon.
Like it, it I I just don't think we got that, but I think we are
getting a much better Mark Andrews than we did at the start
of the season. Yeah, I I definitely agree.
It's it seems like it's just hard for Baltimore to put the
genie back in the bottle with Isaiah Likely.
I think they just really like having him out on the field,
regardless of how good Mark Andrews is.
They played Mark Andrews more than likely this week.
Yeah, yeah, they they finally did, but I I still think that
they want to keep likely involved.
And so that's just gonna that's gonna cap Andrews upside just
cuz he's not gonna be able to get back to that his old route.
Share right? Well, it and to me, it's not
just the right share, it's even even with.
So if I look at the last, if I look at the last four weeks for
Marc Andrews, he's still only at a 20% target sprout run.
And so like I, I, I think that's solid.
That's good. But that is just not normal Marc
Andrews stuff like normal Marc Andrews is like, Hey, you got to
get this guy the ball like you need, you need to do that.
Whereas now it's it's like he's one of the possible options that
they can get the ball to and it's and it works out pretty
good. And, and, and I think I think he
is he, he, he has kind of reclaimed being the starter
ahead of likely and just in terms of his route share.
And like they target him more like they, they get the ball to
Mark Andrews down the field. More than likely.
They've been if you look at like kind of like the last four
games, they've been more successful in doing that.
And but it's it's, it's certainly not old Mark Andrews,
unfortunately. Yeah, yeah.
I don't think we're going to get old Mark Andrews, but we
definitely could still get a a very strong tight end profile
for this season. It just won't be old Mark
Andrews. Yeah, it could be like I think,
I think you could get you could end the like Tight End 5 or
Tight End 6 from America Andrews this year.
Yeah, those are I I don't have any other tight ends.
I had a note to talk about. Do you do you have anyone else
or should we move on to the receivers?
Yeah, that's I, I think we're, I think we're good to move, to
move on here. Yeah, I think we're good to to
move on. And so I guess that we have some
big news here at Deonte that I think we should we should break
down as part of the show. And but before we get to that,
I'm looking at this receiver chart.
The biggest, honestly the biggest, it's not surprise or
the biggest news to me in the last two weeks has been Garrett
Wilson kind of maintaining his like target dominant role.
And let me let me pull up the the actual numbers behind that.
But we'll toss that once, once Garrett will or once Devante
would be in town that it would kind of kill Garrett Wilson.
But if you look at last week, so Garrett Wilson had eight targets
versus 7 for Devantes and Garrett Wilson 29% targets per
out run. He had a, he had A20 week.
So a lot of a lot of air yards there and then four 4.04 yards
per out run versus 7 targets and 9.38 off for Devante.
So that that feels like pretty like that doesn't feel like
vintage Devante at all. That feels like kind of like
older Vante, second fiddle Devante.
And to me, I don't know if that's it.
I'm not necessarily surprised by that, but it's news because
there was some risk that Garrett Wilson would kind of get phased
out with with Devante trade. But to me I think that's off the
table now. Yeah, I think if anything, what
we'll see is like we might see some quieter games from Garrett
Wilson when Devante and Rogers are like fully back on the same
page and and he's been more integrated into the offense.
But yeah, I think, I think Garrett Wilson's role is.
You're not getting the 20 targets targets in a game thing
because they don't have anybody else like they have an outlet in
in Devante. But I I feel pretty confident
here dot AM, you're not, you're not, you're not getting this
outcome where it's vintage Devante linking up with his long
lost friend Aaron Rodgers and it just cooks Garrett Wilson.
Right, yeah, I agree with. You Devante Williams, Devante
Adams is clearly the second fiddle to Garrett Wilson.
Like, just very clearly like he can't do what Garrett Wilson can
do at this stage of his career. I don't want to.
I don't want to get to to that level.
I I'm, I'm, I'm thinking it's more of like, like we, we still
might not have seen what Devante's role is going to be on
this offense or, or that they can trade off back and forth.
It's only been two games and he got traded mid season.
So I don't want to say like, oh, it's very clearly that Garrett
Wilson is the dominant 1. Like I wouldn't be surprised at
all if we saw a game in the next week or two where Devante
happens to out target Garrett Wilson.
You know, 2 to one or something. Yeah, 2 to one, I'd be, I
wouldn't be surprised if I saw a game where Devante out targeted
them, but I would be, I'd be surprised if it was by that
margin. And the big, the big thing that
surprises me about Devante is that the, the, the targets that
he's getting are such low A dot. And I, I, I, I don't know, like
for a player like Devante to be playing with a quarterback like
Rodgers who controlled down the field to be not getting down the
field targets, to just be getting the shorter locks.
Like. That like that, that seems
pretty telling where and and maybe I'm reading too much into
it. But if Devante Adams could win
on a 15 yard and in route like I I I like even even even though
like he doesn't like he's not fully up to speed on the
offense. Like I feel like Rogers would be
feeding on those if he could do that.
But but maybe I am reading too much into it.
But I'm, I, I, I, I do feel pretty skeptical that that we're
going to get old Devon or like I, I, I, I, I vintage Devante
Adams back here. Yeah, that's, I think that's
reasonable. I'm just, I'm willing to kind of
give it a little bit more time since we've only seen two games
so far. We we should talk about Zay
Flowers, though. Who's who's near Devante Adams
on the chart, you know, sitting just right in between 50 and 60%
weighted targets per route run and how he's going to be
impacted by the Deante Johnson trade.
I mean, I think it's pretty bad for Deonte.
It's also probably pretty bad for Zay Flowers because he
really was the target dominator in this offense.
And I mean Deonte Johnson has earned targets.
If there's ever been an offense that has had Deonte Johnson in
it, like that guy is earning targets.
So I think it's it's going to be tough for Zay.
Not not like it's he's completely dead.
It's just like these games where he gets 11-12 targets, like I
think those are going to be a lot harder to come by now.
And I I really think that mostly what happens is he he sucks up
Deonte, that is sucks up a lot of the volume from, you know,
like the Nelson Aguilar and and Rashad Bateman.
Like I think Bateman is is really going to be hurt by this.
Yeah, I am. I think, I think that that's
what happens. I think that Bateman and a
galore will be those are the guys who get hurt the most.
And the, the only thing about it is that I do think that by
replacing targets to a galore and Bateman with targets to
Deonte, like I think that can help the offense as a whole and
that that can open things up for say Flowers.
So I I don't, I don't know that it's like necessarily like as
big a negative for Zay as as you do.
And and then the other piece about it is that so just if you
look at last week, this isn't the full season, but Zay Flowers
had an 8 out of 17. And so the and then a lot over
the course of the year, like Bateman's gotten high A dot
targets as well. So like this offense is an
offense that wants to throw a deep.
And so I don't think that Deonte can be that like guy who's going
to get a tart catch, get a target 20 yards on the field.
I'm not saying that he can't or that he can't have that he's
always going to be like a 5A dot guy or that he will be in this
offense, but he's definitely an underneath to intermediate guy.
Like that's where he wins. And so I think there's plenty of
room for Zay flowers on the deeper target stuff and like 12
targets with A78A dot. And to me that suggests that
like there's a pretty there's a pretty plentiful room for a down
the field role for Zay flowers here.
That and Deonte isn't really in in in in place to touch.
Yeah, that's, that's reasonable. Yeah.
I just, this was, was one of the situations where the Ravens were
having to pass because they were, you know, trying to come
back. Late, yeah.
And so I, I think that when you get, when you get the run heavy
game scripts, which if you look at the Ravens schedule for the
rest of the season, I think we're in for a lot of them.
I mean, I, I think that's where you're really in trouble where
where flowers previously was maybe just going to get enough
target volume that it was fine even in the run heavy game
scripts. Maybe he could get there early
before they started salting the game away.
But I'm, I'm pretty worried about in those game scripts.
You know, even even taking 2-3 targets from Flowers is like a
pretty big hit in those type of game scripts.
I think we're going to have substantially more of those
than. Than the more favorable passing
game scripts as we close out the season here for the Ravens.
Well, I think he, yeah, I, I don't think he's taken that many
targets from Flowers. I think he's, I think he's, he's
taking them from Aguilar and Bateman.
And then he, like the Ravens, often still does need a down the
field target. And so I, I like, I don't, I
don't think Deonte can touch that.
So I, I, I think that that's still going to be pretty
important. And for that offense.
And I think that still runs are, are still, that still has to
happen. And if Bateman is getting up,
taken off the field for, for Deonte, then that has to run
through flowers. Like, I think the talent mode is
pretty good there. And and and like the upgrade to
the offense overall kind of like mitigates the the volume hit.
Yeah, I think that's reasonable. Well, it'll definitely be an
interesting situation to watch a spot that I think is kind of
interesting this week. I mean, we talked about this
offense last week. You were you were excited about
the Troy Franklin play. I definitely drafted a Troy
Franklin and Bonex team in the Dog Bowl.
Just leaning on the huge team total against the terrible
Carolina Panthers and playing into that game was right.
Bone Nix was a a fantastic play. They they ran the score up
against the Panthers and you know, just refused, refused to
let up even after the Panthers were waving the white flag.
So there were plenty of fantasy points to be had.
Unfortunately, none of them for Troy Franklin and quite a lot
Portland Sutton. So Sutton, it's it's been weird
because it doesn't seem like he's the best fit for bone Nix.
There was a lot of you know, I in stealing signals this week,
Gretsch talked about how apparently Nicks had been having
trouble like driving the ball down field and he was short
arming a lot of stuff like had some bad mechanics with
apparently his footwork that was leading to him short arming a
bunch of throws. And that was was making it a lot
more difficult for Courtland Sutton, who had a higher A dot
to, you know, end up producing this week.
It seems like he got that together.
Sutton had what, over over 100 yards, like some something like
14 targets. Let me, let me pull up the.
Yeah, my, my Excel sheet that I used to pull this stuff.
Oh, it, it just uncrashed. He had 150 area yards.
Yeah, 100 yards on the run, 11 targets. 11 targets, 101 yards.
Yeah. What's puzzling and what yeah,
what's puzzling to me about the Troy Franklin thing is that you
had this multi week trend of routes being up and of like
strong underlying usage that he played a little bit, got high
targets and then he was playing more keeping the targets.
And then and then last week his his snap rate cratered.
His right rate cratered and and pretty, pretty devastating for
my for my call there. I, I, I I definitely.
I got that one wrong and. Now was I, I may be
misremembering, was Lil Jordan Humphrey, was he injured the
past couple weeks? I think he.
And no, I think, well, was he injured?
And and maybe you're right, maybe that maybe that's what
what oh, that is am little Jordan Humphrey.
Yeah, because he was on the field.
He was on the field quite a bit. I'm trying to find if he was on
the injury report in previous. He was not injured, OK, he was
not injured. He, he, he played less and like,
he played less while Troy Franklin was playing more.
And then they get they, they bumped them back up to a 52%
right chair. And really, honestly, really
baffling. And maybe I should just give up
trying to interpret Air Broncos receiver usage.
I mean, I, I kind of want to just go because no one's, no
one's going to play Sutton this week anyway.
And you get the Ravens, who are a huge pass funnel, right?
Yeah, I mean, that makes sense. I kind of just want to go to
Sutton because it like sure, you've got the you've got the
wild card factor of like Sean, Sean Payton might just tell you
to go fuck yourself this week and Courtland Sutton gets 0
targets for fun like he has this season.
But. Right.
And he's done it for Sutton, too.
Right, yeah, that's, that's what I'm saying like Cortland Sutton
has has gotten, you know, just totally goosed and like zero
against the Saints 0 targets just for fun.
So like it definitely can happen, but I think with that
volatility, I think people are gonna be scared because they
just saw him get 0 targets. Like, sure, he put up 100 yards
on 11 targets this week, but I I don't really think that people
are excited to play Cortland Sutton.
So I think it's a pretty good spot for him, honestly.
Yeah, yeah. That that is a good spot.
Anyone else that you want to touch on on this chart or should
we move on to the next one? No, I think, I think we've kind
of covered it here. Yeah, I think we've kind of
covered. I guess it's probably worth
going into where Jackson Smith and jig big like I'm just
honestly just for myself to look at it.
So with last, we get a 91% route share hit, 24% targets per out
run, 2.4 yards per out run, and then seven targets, 69 yards.
And so in a game where it should have opened up for him, it just
didn't. And I guess, Sam, I guess what
you're looking at with GSN is just this like completely
competent fine possession receivers that that's kind of
what this feels like. Yeah, yeah, I, I don't know, I
the, the JSN stuff is definitely frustrating.
That's another one where I kind of want to go back to the well
this week, though. I know it sounds crazy, but you,
you get, you get the Rams. I'm not sure if it, it, it
sounds like Metcalf might be back.
And if he is back, like you're going to get JSN entirely off
the radar. So it might still even be OK if
he's not back. I do think I just want to go
back to the well with JSN, you know, lock it just really not
being as involved as I thought he was going to be this past
week. I mean, it might have to do with
kind of the way that they they treated Walker.
I think they're pretty cognizant of like managing the reps for
Lockett and also for for Walker. Like for they're really the
players that are either important or older that they
like don't want to put a ton of wear and tear on.
I think they they kind of dial them back after the game got out
of hand this last week. And so you didn't get as much
Locket, you know, Walker sat at the end of the game.
But yeah, I don't know. I'm JSN definitely.
I think that the hope that he's like this super elite target
Dominator, that I think the ship sailed there.
Yeah. So I just just looking at the
numbers here, Week 8 and Tyler Lockett, he had a 97% route
share, but just 6% targets per run.
So that's two targets on what, 29 routes?
Yeah, 2931 routes. So that, that's that, that
strikes me as a little, a little odd.
Yeah, definitely, definitely a little strange there.
But so I, I, I guess that that's just a player on the downswing,
right? So like, not not somebody you're
not worried about about and blocking JSN from from
dominating targets. It just happened.
But sorry, I interrupted you. You, you.
You were moving on. No, yeah, let's let's move on to
the next next chart here. So there's a couple guys I think
on this next one that are pretty interesting.
I mean, so Cooper Cup got pretty overshadowed by puka in in their
their first weeks back here. I kinda.
I mean this is a pretty. Great on the field on on inner
inner perception. Yes, yeah.
But this is a pretty great spot for Cooper Cup.
And I don't wanna, I don't wanna immediately assume like, Oh
yeah, Puka's going to dominate everything going forward.
I think the most likely thing is that Puka is going to be the one
earning more targets in a given week.
But I think Stafford can support them both and.
So I think that the, the thing, the reason that Cook gets
overshadowed now is so he actually did get, he did get 8
targets last week. So 29% target spread run.
I think he's still an important part of the offence, but is a
dot has cratered this year. So 7.4 in week 1.
Now he did get 21 targets in week 1 and 6.7 in in Week 2
before he left and then 6.8 last week.
To me, I think you have to be on watch for a player who is kind
of like at the twilight of their career and and it can still be
pretty important part of the offense still like they they
need Cook to play well for the offense to play well and still
going to have good fantasy weeks.
But I think it's right that puka, I, I think that's like the
correct interpretation that puka overshadows cup.
Yeah, I, I just my, my main point here is just for a single
week, you know, contests. I I do think that if you're
getting cup at like a major ownership discount or price
discount like it's a pretty good spot to attack 'cause I, I think
you can get these cup nuclear weeks still certainly.
So I wanted to bring him up. Another guy I wanted to mention
on this chart that I think is making a case for being one of
the most talented receivers in football is George Pickens.
I mean, I, I thought George Pickens was really good coming
into the season like leaving last season.
I thought he was good to start this season.
I just thought the offense was limiting him man.
He he's still looking incredible.
I mean the the touchdown that got called back for him was like
the most BS like touchdown reversal call I've ever seen
where he taps the same foot twice in the end zone but you
you must tap both. You have to tap two different
feet for it to count as a catch. Which during the halftime show,
Jason Kelsey had a hilarious point that, well, technically,
by the letter of the law on this rule, you could catch the ball
with one foot down and then hop on that foot without ever
touching your second foot to the ground all the way down the
field for 50 yards and then hop out of bounds and it's not a
catch. Which is quite funny because
that is the actual right of the rule.
That is funny. I, I mean, my, my honestly in my
head that had always been the way that you're supposed to do
it. Like it has to be, to be
inbounds, you have to have like 2 feet like because those you
have to have both feet. And but yeah, that is it's, it's
a frustrating one for him. Yeah, I, I, I Anyway, what I was
trying to get at is I think George Pickens is elite.
He can, he can deliver. I mean, the spike week that
defined the playoffs, the best ball playoffs last year, like is
very squarely in that range of outcomes for George Pickens
every week. Like that's what makes him an
interesting player. Russ Russ did not look great
again for the majority of the game, but then he did have a
couple pretty like and I I he. Throws the moon balls that in
that that he that Pickens can catch.
He he actually, he had a couple pretty good deep shots this game
too. Last last game, like the
majority of the deep balls were not I I don't think he had a
single good deep ball last week that last week.
The ones that that converted were were pure like 5050
interceptable passes, danger like they would, they would be
graded as danger throws, you know, like they were
interceptions in another universe.
This week there were a couple that were actual Dimes, like the
the Van Jefferson. Sorry, no, the Calvin Calvin
Austin 1 was pretty awesome. Like that was a legitimately
good throw. So, like, I want to give Russ
his flowers where it's due. I also do not think that that
efficiency is sustainable for him.
Just watching, watching the entire games.
For both of the games we've seen Russ play, he doesn't look very
good, but he is able to occasionally throw a pretty good
ball. So that is what makes Pickens
really fun. Man.
There. There's a couple guys on this
chart, though, that I think are in really.
I mean, yeah. Russell was airing it out.
So Pickens he had a 12.4 A dot, but then a lot of a lot of
Russ's passes were pretty deep. This this week.
Let me let me that that probably doesn't need to be what you call
it. So hit Russ's A dot this week
was 10.7 after 9.2 last week. So he actually was throwing it
pretty deep, which is interesting.
And I, I, I still think when the Steelers aren't playing with the
lead and and and are in trouble, he's going to look a lot weaker.
But it is interesting that he was trying a deeper lot.
Yeah, Yeah, definitely some of the other guys on this chart
that I think are really interesting.
We talked about LAD a little bit, but he I mean, he is like
the dominant wide receiver one on that team now.
And I think it's it's only going to get more and more clear going
forward. I think he still has room to
earn more targets in this offense and we've seen the
passing trend up for this offense.
I think it's like Wheels, although it's a by high spot for
Lad Mcconkey, in my opinion. Like he he seems like he's going
to be the dominant wide receiver one in this offense and he's
attached to a really good quarterback.
And if they're willing to actually keep the pass rate up,
he's really interesting. Yeah, yeah, for for sure, for
sure. He's definitely, he's definitely
going to be the main receiver on that offense.
I, I the only thing I'm, I'm looking at his, his targets for,
at, for at run in the last game was 20% and it was an 8 out of
13 and he had a really good game.
I guess I thought I, I think when I saw the, the excitement,
I was kind of expecting a little bit stronger underlying usage.
And, but like you said, there's definitely room to run there
where it can get higher. But I, I I I'm, I'm.
I'm a little bit surprised that it's not higher already.
Yeah, I I think we can still see it grow though.
Man. A guy who I think we're going to
see absolutely explode though in these next couple weeks is Josh
Downs. You know what?
OK, you know what is funny? Josh Downs was kind of pegged as
this, like, oh, he's underneath slot type guy.
That's what we said. Yeah, he he gets the deep ball
from Anthony Richardson this week. 69 yard touchdown where
they had him running a deeper route there.
It wasn't just like it was all yards after catch.
So I, I do think that Josh Downs is probably not as limited in
his role as we may have thought previously.
I think he's just a really good receiver.
If anything, I think he's probably like a little bit
closer to what we're seeing from Lad Mcconkey.
Like I think he can probably operate everywhere on the field.
He's a little, he's smaller than lab Mcconkey, but I mean, you're
getting the, the big time quarterback upgrade with Flacco
for him. He's he's very clearly the best
receiver on the team to me. Like he, he is substantially
better than Michael Pittman and pretty much all the peripherals
support that as well. So I think he's the one that
benefits the most. He's also a great buy.
I, I don't if you're in a league like a, a home league where
you've got trading, I don't think that the upside can can be
properly priced in by a lot of people here like I.
Know. This is gonna sound a little
hot, Takey, but I think there are outcomes where Josh downs
like a low and wide receiver won to finish the season, yeah.
Yeah, if like I think you need, you need Joe Flackwood to start
the rest of the way. Right.
And but if he does like so low end wide receiver, one that's
like wide receiver 11 or 12. Yeah.
Rest of season that, that feels totally reasonable.
Yeah, like in in line with like Garrett Wilson production, you
know, like that. That doesn't seem unreasonable
to me. Right.
And you're right, his peripherals are way better.
He's earning way more time, he's getting more yardage per route,
and then Pittman, like he is the best receiver on that team.
Yeah, it's not close either. Let's see.
Oh, the last guy I wanted to talk about on this chart, Chris
Olave. So man, couple of couple of
interesting things here. So it looks like Derek Carr
should be back this week. You would think that would be a
large positive for Olave. Now, previously when Carr was in
Olave almost like legitimately played second fiddle to Rashid
Shaheed. Now you you got heat out of the
way now, unfortunately, with his season ending injury.
So Olave might just be like the only show in town here with car
back and you know, will be, you know, force fed regard, you
know, like car now won't have any choice other than to look
his way. But again, you get the Saints
with this really awesome match up against the Panthers.
There's a couple. I'm, I'm conflicted here because
I really, I want to be in on Olave this week.
It seems like a really good spot.
But I, I think I, I'm pretty sure the market might be
overvaluing him right now because the Saints have told us
they want to run right? Like the Saints would love to
just run the ball and they should be able to do that
against the Panthers. I'm like, right now, let me, let
me tell you who Olave goes around in these dog bowl drafts
just for you know, we can we have some frame of reference
here. So Crystal Lavey going right at
the 2-3 turn, ADP of 23.4. Here's the receivers that he's
going ahead of. And I, I want your opinion on
these. So he's going ahead of Devonta
Smith by a, a good number of picks going ahead of DK Metcalf,
who's questionable. So that's that's obviously a
weird one. Zay Flowers, Marvin Harrison, T
Higgins, DJ Moore. Do you think he should be ahead
of all those guys here? No.
And I think, I think those are all guys who are kind of like
undervalued here. Like I think Devante is
undervalued, I think Zay Flowers is undervalued.
And the rest of the guys I, I kind of, I kind of get it with
the injury concerns. I kind of get it with the injury
risks. I think yeah, I, I think those
guys are just undervalued and the the the pick on, on Olave,
it seems fine. It seems it seems like an
efficient price, like inefficient to OK price actually
just because like you said, he could get an outcome where they,
they, they, they, they do throw a decent amount and he dominates
those targets. But the, the, the base case is
definitely for them to, to run the ball a lot and to not
actually be that much passing volume.
And I guess in, in Olave's favor.
So week two, he did get a 38% at Target for outrun and week 424
percent, 29% week, week, sorry, week 324%, week 429%.
So like he has been a pretty consistent strong dominant
target earner on on throughout the season when he's played.
And I, I, I think that only kind of like concentrates now.
So I, I think you, you have that going for him, but you, you, you
have overall like offensive volume concerns massively there.
Yeah, I, I, I guess for me, like the in, in the context of like
Dog Bowl ADP, if there's to me feels like a pretty clear tier
break as far as like talent right around there where the
guys going before him or like Drake, London Cooper Cup,
Kenneth Walker, James Cook. And then you get to like Terry
Mclaurin, Chris Olave and it's like, man, that's like that
feels like a pretty stark drop off there.
So I think what we'll see when projections are out is I think
that you'll end up with some of these wide receivers getting
pushed back, pushed a little later.
So they all kind of cluster around like the 3-4 turn.
And I think you see like the beginning of the 2nd and and or
beginning of the third round and really like the whole third.
I think the entire third is going to be occupied by a lot of
these higher end quarterbacks and some of the higher
projecting tight ends this week because you're going to get guys
like Evan Ingram, Trey McBride, David and Joku that all project
really well along with some of these quarterbacks.
Well, I think the quarterback should rightfully get pushed
back a little bit. Like Lamar is going too early
right now. Josh Allen is going too early
right now, Jaylen. Hurst I don't like that Cooper
cook price, to be honest. Maybe I'm maybe I'm I'm paying
too much attention to the low A dot over his tree games, but I
think that might be giving too much deference to his his prior.
Would you take Drake London over Cooper Cub?
Yes, me. Especially Terry Mclaurin over
Cooper Cub. And I think, I think that's
close. I think like I think that's
close enough. I probably, yeah, probably
Terry, honestly probably Terry, but it's pretty close.
And then I think Olave Cooper Cub is pretty close too.
So I think, I think cup actually belongs in the Terry Olave
range. See, I think I, I think I'm
going to disagree with you there just because I think the past
volume for them should be like the total number of targets that
we can expect for cup. I think it's going to be a lot
better than what we can expect for Olave or Terry.
I might be, I might be wrong on that though.
I'm just, I'm so gun shy about the Saints running the crap out
of the right into the Panthers that that's giving me a lot of
pause there with Olave. And then for Terry, I mean, like
Jayden Daniels has been incredible.
But also like there really isn't a ton of like a lot of the
production is just getting spread around or like, you know,
guys you're learning a name for every week or like getting 20
yards or whatever for Jayden Daniels.
So I don't know, it's probably you're, I think you're probably
right that Cooper Cup and Terry should should basically be like
I, I bet they'll be pretty close.
So projections come out. Yeah.
So Terry Mclaurin, if I just look at his at his average at
24% targets per at run and then he's had weeks where he's at 34
percent, 29 percent, 32. And then air in the year he had
a brutal stretch and last week he was just at 23%.
And like I think with Terry, like even though it's his target
share is probably like trends of a little bit just a tad lower
than cup. Like not honestly not that much
lower, but just a little bit lower.
And I think your your chances of the explosive players are
higher. Yeah, yeah, the as I look at the
game totals, there's about a 55 or 4 1/2 point difference here
between the Commanders and Giants game and the Seahawks and
Rams. Yes, 4005 1/2 point difference,
43 to 48 1/2. So that that's another thing
that just gives me a little bit of pause there on, on Terry.
I I think if you made me guess right now, I'm going to say that
cup comes in projected higher than Terry, but I think they're
definitely closer than Olave will be.
I think, I think Olave. I think I would project them.
I would project Terry for more air yards and pretty yeah.
Yeah, yeah, that's reasonable. I just think the target volume
is going to be substantially greater for a cup.
So it kind of comes out in the wash for them, but I don't.
Think it's substantial, OK. I think you're talking about two
or three more targets. Yeah.
I think you're talking about like 9.
You're probably talking about a projection of seven or eight for
for Maclaurin and then maybe 10 for for Cook.
And you're talking about like an A dot of like 12 to 15 versus
like 7:00 to 9:00. Yeah, no, that I, I, I think
you're right. The more I think about it,
they're probably pretty close. It'll be it'll be interesting to
see how they shake out this week.
Yeah, for sure. But let's let's move to this
last chart here. We'll we'll wrap it up.
We're over the two hour mark now.
Puka Puka being on this chart is kind of funny, but he did only
play, you know, limited number of snaps here in his first game
back from injury, but dominated targets nonetheless with above
an 80% weighted targets per route run.
So I I fully expect him to be back on the the starters chart.
Before, right, I mean, and puka that that puka run out is a
pretty good example of why when people say I got, especially
when you're talking about a star and they're coming back from
injury and they're like, oh, he's on a pitch count.
You can't play him. He's on a pitch count.
When these guys, when these stars are on pitch counts, it
means they're on a pitch count on on like a play basis.
But when they're on the field, they're going to target the shit
out of them like that. That's when you're talking about
a glide like puku. That's kind of how that works.
And I think that that's something to I, I don't think
there's going to be many people listening to this podcast.
They're going to be like surprised by like how it run out
or like it's going to be a lesson for them.
But I I think it's worth kind of noting.
Yeah, yeah, I man, I wish that I had been on a call with you when
I was getting ready to submit my showdown lineups for that Rams
Vikings game because I adjusted the puka projection up by like
40%. Most of the projection sites had
them around like seven for projection.
I was like, that just does not seem right to me.
So I really, I jammed the projection way up like 40%
increase, which is pretty massive in, in DFS, you know,
especially. No, no, I agree.
And, and I ran my normal process and still was not getting any
puka. And I was like, God, I really, I
think I want to play puka tonight.
I'm pretty sure people are just really wrong on the projection
And the ownership was so low and I almost, I almost just doubled
this projection. Just put him at 100% of what he
was projected at, put him at like 15.
And I have the stones to do it. It's like I'm just gonna, I'm
gonna trust my process. I bumped the projection way, way
up. I still didn't get any of them.
It's fine. And then of course, he's just
atomic in the game. That was, that was a
generational wealth spot if I put the projection where I
wanted to, right, just had the stones. 40% sounds like a lot,
but relative to the volatility, the input volatility, it's
probably not that much. And that's that's what I was
struggling with too. It's like, God, a normal
projection for puka on this site would be like 18 or 19, you
know, so even right would be low and so right.
Yeah, it's it was just a question of like how fragile is
the projection? And and then like it's really
difficult. I I think the proper way to.
Well, nobody could have. Nobody could have projected like
a 41% targets per hour run, no? No, no, But I, I think I'm, I'm
really just saying this more for myself.
The proper way to handle a situation like that with so much
input volatility is not to take what you think is the, the rate
or the probability of the outcome occurring and then
multiply that by the average value of the outcome and get
like an expected value for, Hey, this is what his projection
should be because 40% of the time he's super limited and, and
is projected for seven, you know, and that's the correct
project. And 60% of the time he's like
80% of himself and he's, he's projected for 15.
And, and then, you know, getting the expected value from those
frequencies and, and weights, I don't think is actually the
right way to do it in DFSI. Think if anything, you want to
iterate through the, the scenario.
You want to iterate through each scenario rather than using a
blend. Right.
Or the other way to think about it would have been like, hey,
this is a super volatile input, ownership is super low.
And, and the payoff, if I get this right, is really high
because that the ceiling is there, the ownership is low and
that that that's like a good, that's just a good DFS play.
Yeah, yeah. And and if I.
Easy that that's that's a Monday morning quarterback view, but I
think that's the kind of like Evergreen take away.
Yeah, no, absolutely. Other guy I wanted to touch on
on this chart we Cedric Tillman, we talked about the Browns
offense a little bit. I mean, he he looks interesting
for sure got great target volume.
He's he's getting targeted at all depths too.
It's not just like he's the depot guy or the short area guy
like he's he's all over the place.
He kind of looks like he is. If I had to guess, I would say
he's probably going to be the emerging alpha on this team.
So he's very interesting. I would I would expect that we
see him graduate to the next chart with a higher.
So he had he had a 93% route rate in, in week 8.
And one thing I kind of said at the start of the show that went
under the radar is a large and I think you, you've touched on
this too. Actually, we both touched on
this, was that Elijah Moore actually out targeted and Cedric
Tillman, but it went under the radar because he was like a
lower, lower A dot and he didn't catch the deep touchdown.
He didn't have the game when he touched, Yeah.
Right. Yeah.
So I, I, I, I think those are two good guys to think of in in
like combination. And and here's the most fun part
of this whole Browns receivers conversation.
If you had to pick your two favorites to have on your
roster, of all the Browns receivers, Cedric Tillman,
Elijah Moore or Jerry Judy, which two would?
It's not fucking Jerry, Judy. It's not fucking Jerry Judy, cuz
that guy stinks. Oh man, it feels, feels good to
be right. All right, last guy I had on
this chart that I think is interesting is Jalen Coker.
You get the Deonte trade shipping him out of town.
Jalen Coker looks like he can play too.
Granted, it's going to be with terrible quarterback play.
So you know, your mileage may vary here, but Jalen Coker is
like a very interesting stash. He's definitely, I went out and
there's a dynasty league where he was on waivers and I just
blew all my FAB on him 'cause it's like, what?
What else are you going to use your FAB for in dynasty?
So he's he's a pretty interesting guy, like probably
most interesting in dynasty where you can hold him and and
hope to get better quarterback play in a season or so.
But I wouldn't be surprised if he, you know, pops up here and
there for a a good game or two for the rest of the season.
I mean, he's the type of guy you have to take a swing on in, in,
in waivers where like all the plays on waivers are 10.
They're all 10, well, 99% of them, a handful of them have
some kind of upside because the guy is younger and he could
emerge. And even though it doesn't feel
good to like unload the clip on somebody like that, you kind of
have to do it a little bit. And when I say unload the clip,
I'm talking like a 10 to 20%. And probably and because there's
just there is potential outcomes where Jalen Coker is the is, is
the guy you need from waivers. I I think Xavier Legette,
Legette, he's he's somebody who's probably more rostered
more often, so won't be as on many rate waivers.
But I, I think he's just as interesting, if not more.
And he does, he has that kind of first round draft capital at the
jail and Coker, his college profile is like, it's like,
actually, it's not bad. And he was like an older, older
guy, like 22 playing for Holy Holy Cross.
And like his production was, was solid.
And it's, it's it's, it's not, it's certainly not the ideal
profile for like a smaller school guy And but it's fine.
And that I think that's something to keep in mind of
like between him and and Laget. And maybe I'm not like maybe
this isn't a controversial take that Laget is a better pick up,
but did did want to like, I think that's like a caveat to to
to like to frame it. Right.
Yeah. All right.
I, I did not have any notes on anyone else here.
Did you have anyone else you wanted to talk about before you
shut it down? And yeah, maybe we should talk
about McMillan. And we we did.
We talked about Senator Tillman was one of the pick wave pickups
last week. We talked about Troy Franklin,
who I liked, who didn't pan out, and McMillan.
So he did get the red chair pickup, but he was stuck on 15%
targets per run and seven targets, 14.6 A dot.
He he he combined that for just 35 yards and a 0.76 yards per
out run. So and not really really not
great for McMillan. And it's it's feeling like a
ship chasing curse lives on. I think on waivers you you hold
them for for another week. And but if, if, if, if this guy
can't do anything with everybody gone and and he's getting a 90%
route share like I, I think that I think that the, the leash has
to be a little bit short and you have to be ready to turn.
Yeah, that's a that's a good call.
And I I agree you definitely you got to wait, give it at least
one more week and just see. But yeah, we can't.
We can't just die on the Jalen McMillan Hill if production.
Right, that's the that's the thing about redraft is that you
do get to cut these guys. They're stuck on our best ball
rosters, but we can switch them out, flip them out for somebody
else in in redraft. You know, the really good thing
about my basketball teams this year is I won't have to tilt
them for all that much longer because Week 14 is not that far
away and I am advancing shit to the playoffs this year.
Yeah, I, I, I dip down to like a 13%, I think it's like a 13%
advance rate And and that that's probably I'm probably gonna I'll
be happy if I finish that for the year.
I'll be happy if I get if I can just get some live teams.
True. And not not a great year,
unfortunately. No, no, it's, it's not that
great, but you don't need to hear us commiserate about our
best fall portfolios. I think, I think that's gonna do
it for the show this week. We appreciate you sticking with
us all the way through. Hope we gave you some actual
info and we will look forward to seeing you next week where we
will be live during the election right on election night so.
Oh yeah, yeah. If you need a If you need a
distraction from election night, TuneIn to start chasing.
Yep. All right, have a good one
everyone.