Everybody and welcome to week 6 of statue acing another
interesting week in the NFL to break down with a lot of
injuries this week. I feel like the past couple
weeks injuries have really been piling up, so a lot of
interesting situations to monitor Particularly at running
back. I believe this week, Draco.
How did your week 6 or we fire? We don't have about week six
here. Yeah, it was, it was rough for
me. Not a lot of T, Higgins teams
that got you, sagged and yeah, overall overall just yeah, my
redacted is great, but my idea fast.
Sign them on the dog was no, yeah, I didn't bring but it was
pretty close. Yeah.
I had a similar similar results
for me, so, let's see ya. Nothing exciting to talk about
with with our teams, so why don't we just dive dive into
the, the stats here? Starting starting with
quarterback and apologies to the Discord.
I know there are some bad bad communication about when we're
going live. So, we'll get that fixed in the
coming weeks, anyways. Starting starting with
quarterback here, for those who have joined us before before
we're looking at the same stats as always your quarterback.
We have TD rate here on the y axis and then adjust the yards
per attempt on the x-axis, which is again yards per attempt, but
adjusted for interceptions and touchdowns.
And then the size of the bubbles here is rushing rushing yards
for quarterbacks. So yeah, I think this is an
interesting comment from from CJ that maybe we can kick off this
discussion, looking like late-round quarterback is dead.
Drink up the way. I've actually seen quarterback
the quarterback landscape, this your fantasy football, is that
the very early quarterbacks have hit AK.
Jalen hurd's Lamar Mahomes, Josh Alan.
But then those mid-range like, the sort of low-end QB ones have
been almost Entirely disasters, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers,
Tom. Brady.
A lot of those guys are getting in sort of the 80 to 120.
ATP range have completely flopped.
So yeah, I don't know. Do you what are your overall
thoughts on on quarterback this year?
Do you think that it's an anomaly that those sort of
mid-range, quarterback ones flopped, or do you think they're
there? Something we could have seen
seen coming there with a bunch of those guys not really.
We working out. And so obviously, one of the big
surprises Russell Wilson who has just been bad and I, I guess in
hindsight, maybe there's like, there's things you can point out
to as evidence that. Yeah, maybe we should have
expected it, but I can't get in a similar situation again.
I think that he probably died. I think he was probably a little
bit pricey, but I don't think he was like, kind of like Price in
a way that like you should just like totally fade ignore am.
And we have a comment here that Tom Brady will be League winner.
I think that that's probably a situation where if you wanted to
make the comment that, hey, it's five weeks.
The season is long, we're only one-third of the way, see the
way through the season. And we've got so many more games
and action to come at us. Brady is probably a guy where I
don't think the story is written yet.
He's had a good few games now without his kind of like Star
receivers and yet Chris Godwin back and, which is a big deal,
it's a huge deal. I guess he's no longer trading
trowing to and called Beasley. Yeah.
And which have a man. Yeah, all those guests and
trayvon's. I don't ya.
Yeah, or IP, unfortunately. Yeah.
But I think that, I think that's a good point.
That that's the way it started this year and I think it's
probably a little bit too early to say that's the story written,
and but it's, it's also difficult to point to I mean
maybe Joe Borough Joe Burrows a situation where like the team
just has so much talent and it's like how can they not turn
around but the same time they played so bad for so many weeks
in a row. Now that you're like okay well
at it makes you question whether they can do it or not even
though like I know that it's possible.
Yeah, yeah. I feel the same way.
I do. I'm pretty optimistic about
burrow and Brady, especially, I think you highlighted with
Brady, the pass catchers all coming back there.
I think you're going to lead to him rebounding from the early
season struggles. I think, what's interesting, I
know we've talked about this show a lot in terms of the best
ball, Resurrection ATP. There's also only a few days
left to draft those teams. And I think it's about 50% full
or something right now, so, I think it's a good Time to really
dive in there as it's the last couple days before people can.
Well, people can still get those drafts in and the landscape
there at quarterback which we've touched on is super interesting.
There's four guys going in the top 20 ATP, which is from this
graph. It's pretty, obviously, it is,
it's Mahomes. Jalen hurts, Lamar and Josh
Allen then in the 30 to 60 range.
You just have four guys Herbert around 30, Kyler Murray at 40,
Borough at 50, Brady at 60, just all those guys spaced out about
by 10. And then there's a huge drop-off
down to the next here. Let me let me list a couple
names here, Draco of guys, from atp's of 90.
It's true right away. Oh Drake.
Oh sorry, it's a trick out. I'll list some guys from ATP of
90 to 120 and curious which of these guys are buying Dying
because I think this is really going to be the key to the best.
Well resurrectionist identifying which of these middle round
quarterbacks you want to prioritize.
So we have golf DAC, Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence.
Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Gino to uh Ross and dashon and I'll
throw them at Stafford in there as well.
That's a lot of names, but those are all guys kind of going and
90 to 120 or so range of ATP. If you're trying to attack this
tournament by still prioritizing skill position players early,
you're likely taking stabs on to or so of these guys in your
teens. Do you have a preferred strategy
there of how your how you're looking at those and of
quarterbacks? The further put it in context
and Josh Allen his at ATP is at the fifth, the five, the fifth,
the 105 is ATP. Yeah.
Which prevented ridiculous.
And it's hard for me to see how you can win with that.
And I think that and this, it feels like a cop that, but I
think that Geno Smith is easily, the, the value, they're easily
the Target. And I think we, we that was
probably one of our finer moments last week where I think
we talked a lot about all the ways that and he might not get
it. It doesn't seem like an outlier
and they have The Talented pass catchers and their their team is
setting them up for offset defensive efficiency and and
they absolutely smashed again. Last week you see all the all
the film Grinders where the beautiful highlights of Geno
Smith and obviously he is also adding some Russian component as
well, which yeah? It is really nice for fantasy
and other than it's super god, it's to stay on Gina Gina for a
second. It's super concentrated to like,
you know, it's gonna go through locket and Metcalf and that's
that's really it. Like I'm not even touching the
tight ends or other pass catchers there.
So he's a fun guy to stack and that you know if he's going off
it's gonna be one of those two guys like riding on percent of
the time. and the guy is like at this point, the guys like Derek
Carr and Kirk Cousins at kind of they kind of feel a little bit
like name brand recognition and that like hey you know who they
are and you know, they're going to be they're going to be
starting for the rest of the year and but It's really hard
for me to see them at at like pick 110 or so it's really hard
for me to see them being kind of like league and tournament
winners just because even though they have weekly ceilings but
it's just difficult to see them hit that on a kind of consistent
basis. Yep, so I'll give you two guys
that that I agree with the genome point.
I think that's a good one. The two other guys out of that
list that I like Like R2 and Dak Prescott.
I think you're getting a big injury discount especially with
two and a little bit with DAC and both of those guys I expect
to come back in the next couple weeks in a way that it's not
really going to hurt you for the best ball.
Resurrection again, this is a tournament where the most
important weeks are weeks 15 through 17.
So maybe you miss out on one, two, three weeks from these guys
the beginning but you should have them.
Stretch Ron, and I think both these guys have really talented
pass catchers, they play on past first teams and again, just when
you're seeing burrow and Brady, go at pick 50 and 60, I don't
hate those guys. You know, when a relative to
Josh Allen going at pick five, but when you can sort of get you
know get the discount on the pocket, passers they're 30 40
pics later with to and DAC. I like those too.
Teams and like those like those offenses.
And again, to the concentration point, I think with two it's
very similar to G know where they're throwing all their
passes to Waddle and Tyree kill. And you're really not going to
see a lot of tertiary pass catchers their get involved.
So if a to a stack hits and you have those players you're you're
going to win big there. So yeah, that's one for sure.
Yeah, I think I'm starting to get a little bit skittish
slightly on unsual I think and just the injury then Drew
concern. Yeah and on the injury concern
because You there whenever they're also.
Hey, is there a timeline or you know, we don't even care about
timeline or just trying to make sure that he's okay.
And That it is. He's not on I or and put that at
that does worry me a little bit. And yeah.
And, and I do, I feel I do feel better about doc given that
like, they're there, there's a lot more immediacy about him.
Returning of like, okay, maybe, maybe it's not this week, but it
does seem like it's not a Million Miles Away.
Hmm, yeah that's fair. I think the DAC is is safer but
you it's somewhat reflecting ATP.
You want to pay up a little bit for it, right?
Yeah. Yeah, I think on I guess maybe
to round out this quarterback conversation I want to talk
about too late round super late round, quarterbacks I like and
again this is more through the best ball, Resurrection frame,
where you're going to need a quarterback to or maybe on some
bills of quarterback. Three.
The two guys I like really close to the end.
Our Ryan Tannehill at pick 194 and Daniel Jones a little bit
earlier at pick 164. I think starting with Daniel
Jones, the main reason I'm into him here is just the rushing he,
I think his fourth after the elite rushers, Lamar, Josh
Allen, and Jalen hurd's in terms of rushing yards per game and
that offense, I think table is doing a good job of getting the
best out of their Playmakers. In that offense.
They're really running a lot through say Quan but I think
there is some potential once Rondell Robinson and Tony, get
back for them to open it up. Through the pass game a little
bit. We also saw slate and get some
run last week and I thought he looked good.
So maybe there's a world where you have a three wide receiver
set out there of Slayton, Juan, Dale and Tony and it's actually
a pretty good through Idris Roger, severs set compared to
the, you know, the likes of Marcus Johnson and David silver.
The Big Ronnie on past week, so I pick 164.
I like Dan Jones and then with Tannehill.
I think I don't know why people are so low on and maybe there's
some fear of Malik. It's coming into, and, and the
season there, perhaps that's depressing is price.
But I just think he's, like, I pick 194.
I mean that's going close to Davis Mills, Mac Jones, like,
some guys that we really haven't seen any upside from.
And past couple years, we've seen Tana lab some, some big
games with some rushing TDS and you know, is spotter.
Silver Corp is pretty pretty bad, but just that late in the
draft I'm willing to buy 10 L at that price.
You have any later on guys, you're interested in.
Trick 000 and it could be the case that the fact that Joshua
Allen is the the 106 and and that changes how you need to
look at quarterbacks and but strategically, I've always tried
to get even if I'm being kind of caught price-conscious.
I've always tried to get guys who I can't could finish sort of
like close to the top 10. Yeah, by the end of the year,
and I guess it's still hard for me to see and a lot of even the,
the kind of, like, cheaper, guys.
Finish up with that, like, Even if I guess if I were, if I
really pushed, hey, you have to draft a quarterback after round
16 and it, I guess it's, this is beyond the spirit of such a
scene, but it's probably some hell, and mmm.
It won't happen gatien. I did have.
And was that you see Zach Wilson on this chart.
And even after playing some not intimidating at defenses in the
Steelers and the Dolphins. Fans at pretty / efficiency and
his is, it definitely has have noticed a difference in the Lux
of Garrett Wilson. Yeah, I think it's a like, the
efficiency and also, the volume have been way down for Wilson
comparative. What Joe Flacco was given us.
Right? Yeah, I don't know.
Yeah, it's hard to tell like, How much of that is game script
verse? The Jets wanting to hide Zach
Wilson like that. Miami game was weird and that
they were able to get up pretty big and can just run, run a
bunch. I don't know if that's gonna get
a hold for. The Jets, I would do, right?
It's not and but I also yeah, it just seems like, he's a, he's
not somebody who's consistently moving chains, which now Now and
there's also hurts the kind of play volume.
Yeah, that bacterial around quarterback point.
I think. Yeah, what I want to hit on with
that, I agree that how I was attacking.
Best of all tournaments this summer was I was grabbing one of
the LI guys, very heavy on Lamar, Jalen Hurd strelitz,
Kyler Murray guys in that range. And then I was usually just
doing two quarterback teams by getting someone in the sort of
early 100's. I think with how the ADP works
now I'm going to get boxed out of Lamar Mahomes Alan hurts on
almost every single team and I think even like the burrow and
Brady prices around pick 50 and 60.
I don't I don't love so I think I am and maybe this is a mistake
and I just need to bite the bullet and buy these.
You know Elite quarterbacks in the pics in rounds one and two
but I think I am going to be pushed to builds.
Where guys like Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Trevor Lawrence
Guys, in that range are my first quarterback, right?
And I mean, we've been talking about every week.
Yeah, I'm not. I'm not saying that you still
need to chase these quarterbacks into the first and second round.
I guess what I am saying is rather than go, kind of like
deep sea fishing and at me 94. And and so on, I'd rather be
trying to get em That I guess it's probably everybody knows
that you need to try and get and Geno Smith but I still want to
kind of live in that range where I can pick a guy and it might
work at into getting a top-10 quarterback season.
Well, yeah. And It's so it's.
So like you said even Tom Brady here pick 60 that is like that's
really hard to pay and but you know I might I might still be
willing to take Jared Goff even though he had the bad week last
week I might still be willing to take Jared Goff as somebody who
might be I don't want to call him discount Tom Brady but as
somebody who might be a pocket passer and because of the the
teams that Raishin might still get a lot of passing production.
Yeah that's fair, I think. Yeah, ideally I'm grabbing two
of those guys in that range and then maybe, you know, when these
quarterbacks fall past ATP, it's like saying a Hertz is ATP of
Pick 12 if he falls to pick 20 or so, I might just say, you
know what, I'm still getting them in a better value than most
of the teams are in this format. I know it's like, Like not a
great pic but at that price I'll mix them in something like that
but I think yeah, let me talk to her before.
I don't know if we need to spend more time.
I've mostly probably going for these pocket, pastors around the
hundred range and just trying to build up, you know, double
Stacks through those guys. Cool.
That was a good discussion on on quarterback.
And I think, you know, next year, if this quarterback ATP
holds for the summer, it'll be a really interesting conversation.
And civil see about that next year.
Looking at running back. We're going to dive into the
running back, snaps and usage chart.
So for those who are following Along on video, what this chart
is showing is the percentage of team plays, we're running back
is either getting a rush attempt or a route.
And those are the green colors in the chart.
And then you also see the percentage of plays or they're
either pass blocking or run blocking, so they're still on
the field there, that's a good sign.
They're getting used to Edge. But it's more so and empty,
snap. And through that we can get an
idea of, okay, of a team's total plays, how often are these
running backs involved, either through a rush or through a pass
route where they could earn Target volume.
And that gives us a sense of these guys on the far, left-hand
side here who are the shoe were courses?
That are getting a ton of Rush attempts and routes versus the
guy on the the guys in the far right hand side here which are
more sort of rotational guys in committees.
So, Look at this chart here Draco.
I think one of the things that stand out to me are number one,
I think Berkeley and Christian McCaffrey are really separating
from the rest of the field. In terms of industries of usage
percentage of team plays at they're getting rushed attempts
and routes. Do you see that as I guess?
First question, do you see that as a top like a clear top tier
with just those two guys and then between those two say
you're on the clock and both of them are available at say, pick
105 and a draft which of these running backs.
Are you, are you leaning towards?
And so I think it was either last week or week before that.
I said, I think sake. One is the, is the 101.
Yeah. And I still I still feel like
that and maybe I need to change. Maybe there's a bit more upside
into CMC. Now that might rule is fired.
And but I still, I still prefer Sake One and just given his
ability to make Dynamic, he's been making Dynamic plays in The
Run game and the pass game, just so important for his team and
that, that would be who I would go with.
But I definitely follow anyone for still referring CMC.
Yeah, I think of in the same boat, I wish I had like a Otter
take about, you know, one's clearly better than the other
but I think they're really close.
And I think that they're pretty clearly the best two running
backs. Just the role that they have far
surpassed. Surpasses any other running back
in the league and it's interesting because neither of
them are really on great offenses.
But Berkeley you have to give the edge to Berkeley the giants,
look much more competent than the Panthers.
If there's some games with the Panthers, just can't even get a
first down and who knows. It looks like Baker may be out.
For a couple weeks and p.j. Walker's coming in.
You have to Arnold on IR who might come back eventually.
But you know, I don't I wish I was excited about those guys is
potentially eleve in the offense, but I think we've seen
PJ Walker in the past couple years.
It's it's not great. Darn old obviously not great
either. So yeah, I think I'd give that
just a Berkeley just because I feel a little bit better in the
offense, and I can see the offense even getting better,
once I get Tony, and Robinson back potentially so I think I'm
with you there. Slide slight Edge to Berkeley
looking at the rest of this chart.
Is there anything? Anything else that stands out to
you? And many players are situations.
You wanted to highlight and yeah one thing that I think is
humorous, is that a so Joe Mixon and I just run a road of this
tool the road of his screener and then Joe Mixon on the season
today. date, he would be 238, most inefficient that ring back
of all time since going back to That's going back to the 2000.
Is that extrapolating? What he's done so far over the
full? No, no just just somebody's not
so far. Wow, it's week.
Five, the worst is Edgerrin. James for Arizona.
In 2006 with at minus 70 tree fantasy points over expected but
he's easily on truck as so. I thought that was funny.
Yeah, that's, that's why. I mean, you'd really jumps off
this chart. As you can see here on the
bottom, we have expected points and then fan fpo is fantasy
points over expectation. So Joe Mixon is leading the NFL
and expected points for running backs but as - 40 fantasy points
over expected and that's I mean, it's ridiculous.
That's it. Blows anyone else a little
water? I think the second closest would
be Javonte and -19 even nausea who Who everyone is ripping on
for being. So, terrible is only at minus
15. So what mix-ins doing out there
it's disgusting. You asked what his own pace for.
So he's on Pace for, if I use that if 16-game season to make
this consistent, he's on Pace for - on June 28 and next, it -
73. So clearly as historically bad
efficiency season, Yeah. Hello man.
Even with that, I have to like for trying to be actionable here
is ATP is 25 again I'm going to say that I think that's that's
still an okay pick. I think.
Like I think I don't think Joe Mixon is good.
I don't think he's this bad though.
Like he's not that old yet. Just I test from watching him.
Like he doesn't look great but he looks how he's always looked
to me. Just a guy who kind of gets
what's there. And not much more.
So I think, if you regresses to just like League average
efficiency, he is still a fine pick and I think he does have.
I think he still has the spike week potential just from getting
touchdowns and from all this volume.
So it's like not a pic. I'm excited about it all.
But say, I prefer not to pick the potentially least efficient
player of all time. I pick 25 and yeah, that was me
now. I think I'm just teasing Get it
wrong. It's a he's got the fifth
highest I guess Fantasy Point usable kind of snap share.
Just there just behind Leonard fournette.
I just had a Josh Jacobs. It feels like a situation where
you should be able to get get paid off.
I pick 25. It's just I don't know that.
It's just it. I'm never going to feel
compelled to pick a running back and just because just because
they have the, the volume, especially not with such a
narrow, you pick Yeah, that's fair.
I think it's a specific build thing for me.
Where said I go Cooper, cop and AJ Brown, the first two, picks
something like that. I'll not build call a 0 or B.
Yeah, I'll plug my nose and take.
I'll take some Nixon at that price.
I wouldn't say I'd be like over overweight him, but I probably
wouldn't be fading. I'm either, I think maybe a
better pick though. You know, if you're going to
play that same card of the running back getting volume just
take Josh Jake. Up to pick 48.
I think last week, we were touting him at around pick like
70s, price was still really depressed.
I mean, Matt, he looks, he looks good.
And it shows up in the numbers here, 10 fantasy points over
expected. He has the sixth best roll out
of any running back, based on right, percentage of Russia,
Thompson routes. And I mean, the, I'm not worried
about zamir white. I don't think it looks very good
out there. I'm not worried about Brandon
Bolden and Ameer Abdullah. I mean, those guys will take a
little bit of work but I'm pretty.
I'm pretty in, on Jacobs at pick 48.
I realized that's like, you know, we talked about running
backs in that range as being in the dead zone.
But from what I've seen from Jacobs this far, I don't see any
reason not to, not to take him there, especially if I've gone
through the water Seaver. Heavy before that, pick.
What do you think about Jacobs to pick 48?
It's really hard to disagree with that.
And just looking at the numbers. And dude, there, I guess there's
always been people in the fantasy community that has
really believed in. Josh Jacobs has talent, and they
are having their day right now. And looking at these numbers, it
kind of looks like he should be. He should be a first-round pick
based on the numbers and that's really hard to not.
Say, don't drop him at the end of the for Trent.
Yeah. I I don't like it, but I am
probably drafting a Josh Jacobs. Yeah, but that prime mean, I
don't know if you'd like more, fill ground or take, but I don't
know if you watch the game last night, but he is just, like,
punishing Defenders out there, and he looks quick to, he's just
if he has a one-on-one against the safety or cornerback, he's
just absolutely bulldozing them and I don't know.
I, I feel like I've never seen Josh able to play this way.
I don't know, like, he looks different to me.
I don't know if it's just like, Results bias of him putting up
fantasy points and all of a sudden I'm like, oh, he's really
good but like he looks like a different player out there.
I don't know if he's been hampered by injuries in the past
couple years and he hasn't looked as explosive.
But yeah, we've always believed in Josh Jacobs here at stat
chasing and ship, chasing huge, huge Jacobs fans.
So yeah. Now I wish I could honestly say
that. I don't think I have.
I don't think I have much of him.
So I got my face there. From the preseason 1 egg 1 pick
that stands out big time to me is that Rahim most dirt.
He's clearly kind of a at taking a Stranglehold, not a
Stranglehold. But in today's running back
landscape he's taking a Austin Eckler sized share of the
Dolphins Back Field and the points haven't really caught up
yet and what? Let's see where he's going and
yeah, he's the best. He's the best running back value
right now. And best of all Resurrection.
I think I'm with hundred eat like a huge priority.
Huge priority. Yeah, they're icing admin.
I mean Mi gasps. Can I think got more snaps and
than Edmonds last week. So they're really down, really,
really down on Edmonds. Yeah.
Pick 100. You're getting a top 15 roll.
In terms of Rush are and routes. And I do think like we talked
about, with Miami earlier, I think I mean to, to a coming
back, there's no some wrist there, but I think Teddy
Bridgewater's injury does not appear to be serious.
He should at least be back. Open cavity.
Yeah. Like it was because he this a
spotter said that he sipped but there was no and there's no
video evidence of ever sipping. So they're like, there's no sign
of concussion but you have to go through the protocol and it
sounds like he's fine. Yeah.
Yeah, I think he should be back in again.
Yet you just didn't League or average Quarterback play.
I think in Miami and most are definitely had to pick a
hundred, you know, it's totally worth it.
I think we should talk about the, the cover board for this
week. Now in Ken Walker, who had does
not appear on this chart. We see Penny, they're just walk,
I'm not even sure Walker but here we should have at use some
Adobe what's Called a Photoshop and just scribbled out Rashad
pennies name and put in kind of Walkers.
Yeah. We yeah we need to, we'll do
some Next Level editing next week, but yeah.
Penny rest in peace. You starting to look like a good
pick at around, pick a hundred. This offseason.
Would, he is out for the Year. Ken, Walker looks like the most
exciting way, Brad for casual, leagues out there that will have
all season, obviously in any League where he's available.
You're saying like all your money on him.
I think it's interesting to talk about like what do we think?
How do we think Ken Walker, will where do we think will show up
on this chart next week, in terms of percentage of Team
routes and Russia tabs? Because I think we've seen it
was interesting in Seattle, because originally, we saw this
three-man split. Where was Homer, Penny and
Walker, homered goes on. I are they basically plug deejay
Dallas into the Homer role for a week and it was still a
three-way split among those guys.
Since then, they basically pushed DJ jealous to the side
and it's just been Penny and Walker.
And now, Penny goes down. So what do we think?
Do they involve deejay Dallas? A lot more, just Travis home or
have a role when he comes back? Where do you think, like, if
you're just to sort of postulate, where do you think
Walker will sort of slot in on the spectrum of, you know,
Workhorse all Berkeley, McCaffrey Taylor to, you know,
50% snap, share guy, Allah, Cordarrelle, Patterson James
Robinson. Give me next week, Janek, I or I
guess over the course, right? Yeah I think they're two
different questions and but important persons and so I think
that this is kind of one of those goods one of those
situations where when two running backs are in a timeshare
and the reason that they're in a timeshare is that their boat so
good that they both become their boat hugely.
Valuable picks and fantasy because the contingent upside is
just so high. Yeah, and I really don't see any
way that he doesn't and get pretty much all of their pennies
kind of rushing workload and I but I still, I still would have
some question about his past catching and he was not Receiver
in college. So that at, I think that part
that the fact that Penny was starting to eat into the kind of
Route share, I don't know if we can just push that onto a walker
but it might be a situation where he's so good is a rusher
because he really was a great, a great College talent for at
roasting. So that really could transfer to
the NFL and big way. He might he might end up being
kind of like a you're not going to like this.
He might kind of be end up being and it like Nick Chubb role and
if we really do believe in the Seahawks offense and The
touchdown element might be strong enough to really at push
him forward. I think that would be like, my
kind of, like reasonable. Yeah, base case.
And obviously, there's a huge range of outcomes like that he
could end up being like, oh, he's actually a solid pass
Catcher And he becomes a Workhorse or it could be a
situation where they're like uh, who still like these other
running backs or so going to use them in a Russian game and I'm
wrong on the downside. But I think that's a Good.
I think if you non-premium brand that are discount brand Nick
Chubb on the Seahawks offense. Yeah what I'd say that's
interesting. Yeah I think that seems like a
fair base case. I've heard people talk about the
fact that I think, if you look at the numbers, I don't have it
up right now. Walker has drawn a decent amount
of time. Targets on the routes he's run.
It's actually looking at the weighted Target for out Ronnie
is a 60%, waited targets for Route.
Ron. That's a very small sample size
and just from like a film film take perspective, I think he's
been in a lot where they've done these Jet Sweep design plays for
him that are essentially running plays and on such a small sample
that's going to really skew the numbers.
So I have to have that. I just want to sort of provide
the counter. Take I have heard people talk
about. Oh, Workers earning targets.
I'm a little skeptical of that because of the small sample and
the Jet Sweep stuff. But who knows?
We have seen in the past running backs that don't have much of a
receiving profile in college that can perform at the NFL
level. I think Taylor's maybe an
example he's different than Walker and that he flashed a bit
more receiving college and Walker did but that's maybe one
example of a guy when we saw the receiving.
Come up in the NFL in a way, we didn't quite see in college but
I think your your base case makes sense.
I think going back to the ADP, he's I think it'll take some
time for the ADP to adjust off the injury news, but he's only
going at pick 81 right now, which is behind Melvin Gordon
JJ, Dillon Jamaal Williams. James Connor, James Robinson.
I think he should be going closer to the judge a cups range
at around. Pick 50 to 60.
So I'm still definitely buying Walker at pick a tea.
Just a bet on the talent, second round pedigree and a bet on the
Seattle offense being strong and also a bet against these deejay
Dallas, Travis Homer, guys, I think if they do start out with
the roll, I think, Seattle will see how much better Walker is
than them and will eventually sort of ice ice those guys into
smaller roles and on your, on your kind of Jet Sweep down
going to point, he has Of at 12 or yards?
Yeah, that's what those targets are.
Yeah. And what, you know, it's still
interesting that he has in entry games that he's been targeted.
So we have seven Targets on the year, which considering that he
was at week one, right? Yeah.
Is that week one? So that's close to Edge to
targets a game. Which, I mean, it's fine.
Yep, better than what pain he's ever done for sure.
But yeah, I think like, it's hard to paint given the current
backfield and, you know what? We even if Seattle maintains
just sort of a League average offense, they've actually been
better than that. It's sort of hard to paint the
down side case for Walker, at pick a tea, like you're getting
the clearly. The lead back on offense that
has been strong. Yeah, this price will go up, I'm
sure but I'm trying to get some drafts in tonight where he's
still going around the right that pretty.
Yeah, this tournament closes on Thursday.
So it's really a Race Against Time.
I was like how quickly can the kind of a TB catch up with
obviously an advantage right now.
Yeah. The last running back I want to
talk about is Ramon Ray Stevenson just in the context
that Damien Harris is likely to miss a couple weeks.
I think there's even a chance you might go on ir and if we go
to the next chart quickly we see Damien Harris with 53 expected
points. So he has sort of a small role
in terms of when he's actually on the field.
But when he hasn't on the field, he's getting a ton of touches if
from Andhra even absorbs some of the From Andres been in a bigger
role due to his past game uses. She's at 61 expected fantasy
points. If he absorbs just like half of
Harris's role which I think is a realistic base case assumption,
he would all of a sudden be near the top in terms of expected
fantasy points and near the far left of the chart in terms of
guys of the Workhorse role. So I've seen it on Twitter
already guys who are deep in the projection streets or already
coming out with Ramon Dre as one of the top projected.
Running backs next week in terms of points.
So I think that's just interesting interesting guy to
highlight that you know maybe in some leagues where the manager
isn't really aware of how much upside or Monterey has you could
you could buy them at a lower price or even in these best
ball. Resurrection drafts.
I think he is a pretty good value at at pick 60, just for
the, the near-term upside and I think in the playoffs you will
still maintain sort of the lead back role that we've seen thus
far in New England. But yeah, II really like
reminder I really like his talent and my only pushback
would be not I still think Harris is coming back like he
has this that hamstring injury just kind of leave them out for
a while. The other while they're Wyler.
Monterey is while he's out room, Andre should be this total
smash. I do think that the fact that
Harris comes back and that when he comes back the the
week-to-week floor is so low and the ceiling is it?
While Harris is playing. The ceiling is not great either.
I I think that picks 60 might be a tad too expensive for me given
that and Yeah, I can definitely hate, he could be a guy with the
with the shorter and what's it called?
Not playoff with the shorter group stage, he could be
somebody who almost Advanced you on why himself.
But when you're trying to take down these tournaments, you
really do need to remember what the kind of last few week upside
is, and I don't know if that matches add the price and that's
Situation. Yeah, I think that's fair.
Like, we've talked about guys, that I think are better values
bit later. I certainly think that most are
and Ken Walker better values slightly later, but I still
think pick 64 am. Andre is fair just that in the
the two weeks prior. While, while Harris was still
playing, he put up pretty strong lines over what week one and to
do. Yeah, Week 1 and 2.
We wanted to. I will We, I think there was a
bit of a role change in that we saw in weeks one and two, number
one, we had Thai Montgomery and they're messing things up a
little bit. Again, he could be back to you,
so you can make the argument that he will mess.
Things up in the future, but we have that aspect of it.
We also had Damien Harris in those early weeks, running
equal, or even more routes than or Madre, which everyone was
pointing out is pretty weird. I think that was certainly the
case in week 2. And then that flipped and weeks,
three and four, where you saw Ramon, Audrey put up four
receptions each week also had 12 to 14 carries in each game with
65 plus rushing yards in each. So, even before Harris got hurt,
we did see like this 10 to 18 touch per game role for am
Andre, which again, the, the floor like we have seen the
floor and we just wanted to but that's still a pretty solid role
with Harris and these midseason Ring injuries.
I'm always sort of betting against the guy to come back
fully healthy. So I, yeah, I think I see your
side of the take. Like, there's better values.
When you can get Jacobs to pick 50, you can get most sure to
pick 100. He's not the best value out
there but I'd probably want to have some room, Andre, and some
world where I'm doing a bunch of these best ball drafts.
And so, one thing I would point out is Is that in week 2?
And he did have a 61% of the road share, and but he still, he
still scored only six points. I know that's like a one-week
sample and week for, he only had 52 percent and he scored 13
points eyes. I still think that Other than is
Talent, isn't the town of a dead zone that's on back but the
situation is where, like, near term for the, for the first week
of the Resurrection. We project them as a belko, but
it's such a fragile situation that and it could really blow up
in your face is is where I'm more wary.
Yeah. Yeah I think that's fair.
I think. Yeah, maybe where we differ is.
I think that the upside I think we're going to see these next
couple weeks at the upside is really, really massive.
And even if there's like a strong chance, Harris is back in
his full roll. I still want some chance of
that. Just we've seen the running back
position this year, just be so thin that at that picks 60.
I think it's an okay. Upside that.
But, yeah, I see your side of things.
I think it's an interesting player to talk about and we'll
see over the next couple. Yeah, for sure.
I totally agree. They're definitely, he's going
to be somebody dada and probably going to be a huge disagreements
about that is what makes us one? Yeah, it wouldn't be fun.
If everybody agreed on, the same are thing's for sure.
Yeah, so let's move on to the sort of more rotational running
backs. Maybe, we'll do some quick hits
here at a couple things. One, Jalen Warren, I think makes
his first appearance on these charts.
He still has a pretty small role according to this chart, but we
actually saw last week. I believe you out snap.
Nausea Harris, or at least made it very close to 50/50 split.
He was playing a lot of the third down.
Roll some of that people pointed out was late in the game, but
all the starters were still playing.
It wasn't like right now I think with the only starter that they
removed. Exactly.
Yeah. And there were quotes this week
on Tomlin, saying Warren's gonna have a bigger role.
So there's some some momentum there for the sort of the
coaching sentiment. I think that the team has
obviously invested so much in Nagi that it's going to be tough
to like completely relegate him to Warren.
But I think we'll see. Them approach, a 50-50, split,
maybe base cases, option going forward, would be something like
a 60/40 split in favor of Nagi with Warren, getting a little
bit more of the past down work. And I think that's just, like
that's just putting nausea in a coffin.
We know he relied on 100% sort of snap rate essentially last
year, so I think Warren Warren is interesting.
So here's I think this it should be interesting.
Yeah, so Warren had a The percent route share and week.
Five pound. Tell me your best.
Guess as to what his route chair was on average between weeks,
one on the for I'd say like twenty percent twenty three
percent so pretty good guess? Yeah, yeah, but in which to you
had 30% and weeks for you also at 30%.
So it's not like, this is just say, hey, this is just a weird
game, one off out of the blue and he has been pushing for this
at the last couple weeks. And I think you're seeing the
culmination of this. Kind of mounting pressure.
Yep. Like maybe maybe next week it's
not going to be a 50/50 share but there is it's he's kind of
like I think Warren is kind of like the Inconvenient Truth
right now. Looks like probably everybody
knows that he's playing better but it's that's very
inconvenient for them and and and at tournament where like you
said weeks 15 through 17 are the are Fortunately, the payouts and
deciders that at that that's definitely situation.
You want to add that on? Yep.
I agree. I like Warren pick 180 right
now. That's right direction.
That's absolutely insane. Yeah, it's a great combo of.
He should provide some like, if you're really desperate, give
you some points as an rb2, some weeks, and I think he has pretty
strong or very strong contingent upside.
We've they've shown, they really hate the rest of these running
backs behind Nagi Anthony McFarland, any Snell, all these
guys that got zero row last year with Ozzy healthy.
So I think I'm Nagi goes down. Warren is going to get a pretty
huge share. Just given that they don't like
those other backs at all. Yeah I think yeah every and I
think it's all so crazy that a second Steelers running back
would be on this chair. Like we would not have believed
that if I hate now she still going to be playing what it's
going to be an actual committee and we would not have expected
that. So like this is like kind of
like extraordinary that this has happened.
Yeah, yeah I agree. I think the other one too
interesting to hit on here. We see two That's running backs
near around the 40 percent Mark in terms of Russia Temps Plus
routes as a percent of total team plays.
So, I think that is interesting to point out in that Bruce Hall
has 85 expected points in such, you know, relatively small role
compared to what we expect for the rest of the year.
If we did this chart and only looked at the last two weeks
Hall would be, you know, certainly on the other chart and
have a much bigger role as role sort of steadily grown
throughout the year. So that's just a point out that
I think at pick 26. I believe in the best full
Resurrection. Oh, no, he's at pick, 29.
So going a bit later, I'm pretty excited about Bruce Hall at that
price. I think he has a lot of a lot of
upside there. If he earns a bigger share and
the talent, especially the pass catching Talent looks really
strong on his small NFL. Oil so far.
What are you? Thoughts on the Jets?
Guys, and Brie said, yeah, I like that.
Maybe this is a hawk take, but I definitely prefer be talked to
Joe Mixon. And yeah, that cost I do too.
I mean, there's only a five pick difference in cost.
Yeah, that's I think that's close enough.
That it's a choice almost But I prefer like he's not his
expected points workload. Obviously, that is probably a
bit high from the The Joe Flacco s Timmy's.
And yeah, but he can obviously score points.
He's obviously the better back of two studs.
Basically, and the I think that there's Probably strong kind of
demonstration there that playing through him is a good way for
them to be competitive and win games.
And lucky said, the talent is huge too.
So that's something where I'd, if I'm trying to skate to where
the puck is going in week, 15, through 17.
I-i'm, not sure how to go through that Avenue, done it,
then, Joe Mixon for sure. Yeah.
Now that's fair. I think actually in a draft
today where I had that choice and I did go with Hall.
Um, I think that we're on the same page there, in terms of
haul over mix and just so much, a much more exciting bat, and
you can definitely see his workload grow.
I just think it's back to the Joe Flacco point.
I just think it's hilarious. You know, four years ago, if you
were to tell me that would be begging for a team to choose the
pledge. Oh Flacco instead of a rookie or
second year, you know, first round quarterback, I would have
thought you were crazy but here we are probably about the
quarterback. Yeah, we really please Joe
Flacco. It's come play for the Jets and
it's looking bad for a sec Wilson.
Let's move on to the wide receivers, just want before we
move on. Yeah, it is.
Nice to see that after kind of, like, get at the Darryl Williams
at kind of like, forcing Eno into a into kind of like a split
roll, even with John Connor, John James, Conner down, it is
nice to see that, you know, and and a bit more of a snob share.
Well sorry, Daryl Daryl went down that came with the knee
injury to right? Yeah, I do.
Yeah. But yeah, no, I agree with that
one. Yeah.
And that it that that I think that is also I guess I think to
me, that's a little exciting for you know, II.
I don't like sharing for injuries and but I think that's
a, that's something where the this is he, he's definitely
worthwhile dropping there. I picked 160, yeah, for sure.
There's some near-term offside there with the the injuries
again. You know, away every guy.
I know the not in my league, people will hate the, you know,
Benjamin's available and 9y. How is he available?
95% of Yahoo leagues. Yeah.
Then we gotta come up with a better image metrics and these
percent of Yahoo leagues available if I think we can do
better. Yeah.
For the people are listening Advantage but while podcasts we
need we need a better metric there.
Anyways, let's there's tons of other things we could hit on
here. But let's, let's move along to
wide receiver. Again for those following Along
on video here, we're looking at wide receiver opportunity
compared to results fantasy points.
And this first chart for wide receivers are the full-time wide
receivers guys running more than 85% of their team's routes.
So on the y axis here, we have fantasy points per game on the
y-axis. Sort of a measure of results.
How are these guys hitting? We're playing fantasy.
We want to see fantasy points. X axis here, R.
We have waited targets, per route run.
Now this metric if you're familiar with targets per route
run, which is the number of targets you earn per routes,
that is that magic but adjusted for are yards, which means
targets further down the field. You know, 50-yard bombed Justin
Jefferson is worth more than a Jet Sweep to Kenneth Walker in
terms of opportunity. So that's how we're looking at
the wide receiver position. It gives us a view on Potential
by Lowe's and sell highs as well as looking at you know guys that
are performing really strong the top right quadrant and then your
cardio Specialists Allen Robinson in the far left
quadrant. So that's orientation.
Yeah. To the Chart Draco.
Go ahead, when you said somebody lows and saucer section bylaws
and sell highs, it reminded me of that.
Gpp intro thing, that Pete has with the Raptor.
Why are those and sell High? Yeah that's that's the best
Tick-Tock that's that's still out there.
And so my taught on this chart is at because it's receiving, I
think that Aunt, this is probably one of the most stable
charts week the week that we have, and a lot of a lot of the,
the kind of most striking things on this.
I think we have actually discussed quite a lot.
And, but one thing that, That is I think quite noticeable.
Is that Brandon? Are you is in the Heder, owning
strong targets but they're not scoring points.
I am kind of quadrant there and I actually find that really
interesting in that like, oh, hey, he's just talent that we
like, he's running the routes, he's getting the targets, he's
just not scoring the points yet and he's got the type of talent
profile that we do expect the score points and yeah especially
relative to last year where he wasn't on the field because he
was in the doghouse. Where's now he is on the dark
field. Sorry.
He is on the field, the top field so he's on the days in the
dog park, I think my brain was in the dog park when I said that
and going to pick Monkey Tree like that, that does seem like a
really strong and and when we looked at the quarterback chart
and we had pretty strong adjusted area after it just did
yards per attempt for and Jimmy G.
So he's kind of settling back into that terrible.
Trying to see but good for his receivers are actually.
Maybe not even good for his receivers and you're a what
Shanahan wants out of the offense.
I guess, like facilitating receivers on a perp dropped back
basis and yeah and it's out of the point, the 49ers who they've
played to open the season, they played the Bears, one of the
worst offenses in the league. They actually lost that game and
they played the Seahawks the Seahawks headed down week that
week only scored 7 points. It's to put the Broncos really
bad offense, Rams. I've been really struggling
offense with the o-line Panthers, terrible offense.
It's been a bunch of games where the 49ers haven't been pushed at
all and they've been able just to enforce their running game
grind their opponents. Now look, the 49ers defense is
very good and I would expect some of that to continue but I
think coming up they have games against the Chiefs Chargers
Cardinals. Dolphins bucks, Seahawks again,
Raiders These are some teams that I expect to push the 49ers
in certain games, and I do think we'll see more volume out of the
passing game out of necessity there.
So, yeah, I think I use great called because when I look at
his actual fantasy points over expected, it's very neutral and
I would actually expect him to be efficient.
So, I think there is some upside there, but definitely the issue
for him. Financially was is that they
just haven't been pushed, Past enough.
And and I completely agree that that is a kind of volatile
thing. And and yep we can probably
expect it to. So here's that the the San
Francisco true week five have the second highest amount of
snaps and or if offensive snaps up by seven points, or more with
160 tree, That's compared. The first is Philadelphia with
200 so that proud they probably are on the upper end of this
chart and on a full-season basis.
But I don't think there s and I don't think they like I don't
think they're like, really kind of like right now.
They're in a kind of tiered Gap with khaki think cro 135 Buffalo
122nd to Baltimore 122. I don't, I don't think they're
like 30 to 40 plays at maybe 10 plays a game at had better than
the best teams in the NFL. Yeah, I agree with that.
I think again. Yeah, I expect them to run
heavy. I expect them to have a good
defense. I don't expect the extreme that
we've seen thus far this year, right?
Hold over the course of the season.
So I think that that bodes, well for not just, I iook, but but
Debo as well, right? He's he's been solid to start
the year, but I don't think people are, you know, extremely
excited. They have Diva on their teams
are probably a bit neutral. I think we could see him put
together a really Long stretch in games where San Francisco's
forced to throw a little bit more.
So I think. Yeah, I think there's all those
guys killed too. I'm still buying even though the
results have been bad. Yeah, and the spirit of the only
thing. So I'm still buying the boat as
well and what are you picking 90 fingerpick 19.
Yeah this chart at that Gap is too high.
Yeah, I'm with you. What are you going to mention
this chart, right? Is that like rushing and Red
Zone role that Debo right though involved in.
So I there should be a guarantee of their just I was going to
make him this massive part of their offense like no matter
what offense are running a lot of the time.
It's going to be true Diva. I get it.
I just I don't think it's a 70 pick difference.
Yeah that's fair. I you and I would be more on the
side that I you because undervalued than debose, right?
Overvalued 100% agree. Yeah, cool.
Another thing I think a guy that pops here that we maybe haven't
talked about as much is the most disrespected wide receiver in
the league that is Jacoby Meyers.
He has the highest weighted targets per route Ron of any of
the full-time wide receivers. I don't know if it's like the
undrafted free agent bias from his Prospect profile.
I don't know if it's the Patriots being gross sort of
offense. Don't want to be excited about
bias but he's not just drawing all these targets.
He's actually scoring quite a bit of fantasy points.
Now, over 15 fantasy points per game, he missed a couple weeks
earlier in the year so maybe that's why people have been sort
of slow to catch on but I think he is the best wide receiver
value bar. None in the best.
All Resurrection right now at pick 120, that's just a
ridiculous value on a guy who's earning and say enroll you know,
even not on a great offense. Since I think that is just a
ridiculous price. What do you think about Jacoby?
it's hard, not to agree and That he is interesting.
And so, yeah, hundred, pick 120 scoring at 70 and a half points
per game. Yeah, sometimes getting me,
right? Yeah, that's an easy one again.
Yeah, there's some like anti Patriots, you know, Jacoby Myers
is boring bias going up on their butt.
Yeah, last two games, 94 95 then 7 for 11 and a touchdown.
Yeah, it fast. Football doesn't always have to
be hard. Just pick Jacoby Myers every
time at pick. 120, trigger. Any other situations here you
wanted to talk about? I think Alan Robinson is super
happy that Marcus Johnson earned a full roll so he is no longer
the the king cardio Specialists. We have a writing you a new
entrant into the competition. They're used to carry.
Do a prince. No yeah so And you had an
interesting tweet. Do I think was last night or the
night before that, if anybody's Victory lap and gave David, they
need to be at what may can die a me Brown as the number one,
waiver wire pick up ya fantasy and, you know, somewhat
sarcastic, but I think there is an ounce of Truth to that.
That gave Davis still didn't earn targets.
Last week, really, he's running all the routes.
Look, I think what's interesting about gave Davis is I don't
think we should penalize him for the fact that he's running all
the, all the routes and also on that offense.
It's a lot of deep routes that are going to have a low rate.
I guess a low Target rate, just inherently there, deep, sort of
clear out routes and he's on the field all the time.
They must like his blocking. They want to have them out there
all the time. So I don't think you Be
penalized for that. And I think that's a little bit
of why like we saw. We see him so far left in this
chart that maybe if he was running Les routes and just out
there, for more plays that were designed for him verse like,
clear out routes. He would actually show up a
little bit better here. But again, I think there is now
some truth that like, I don't think this give this gave Davis
roll, like is not really what it was sold.
As this offseason, I think people are a little bit Barry.
Their head in the sand on Gabe. Davis and it sounds ridiculous
to say after a 30-point fantasy game, that I think you should be
selling game Davis. I'll probably like eat those
words, but I think at his current price right now, where's
he going? Pick 38 in the best of all
Resurrection. Like I'm still just passing on
in there. Almost every single time when I
can get DK, Metcalfe, Marquis Brown.
Chris olave Amari Cooper Courtland Sutton Chris Godwin
Cristian Kirk you know everybody after him is like in this strong
it's all these strong performers on the right-hand side of this
chart, these guys that are earning massive roles and then
you have Gabe Davis, you know, earning four to five targets a
game and just like, connecting on deep touchdowns.
So I don't know. I'm always choosing the guys
that are earning more Targets in the more sustainable side, but
We'll see if Gabe. Davis makes me makes me eat my
words in. What do you think about the
game, David situation? And so, it's pretty.
I guess it's pretty tough. When I look at his way to Target
for, at run lost. Sorry.
I look at his way to targets per run last year and I see 55% And
Which is higher than a hot like, almost double what we've got for
this year. And so that that's using Road of
is and then last week doesn't have a World of is not updated
yet. And this year looks to be around
25% ish. Just for this year.
I don't know about last week, though, and yeah, I last week
made me believe the ankle injury taking a little bit more and yes
that and the turkey if probably not going to score 30 points
every week and probably is a little bit expensive, probably a
little bit pricey and but just the I guess major downfield role
for Josh. Allen means that this kind of
Turning Point week is going to be so within his range of
outcomes every game Stop it, it makes it.
He seems like a very difficult fade and but I definitely
understand why other players would be prepared and in that
range just because we even if you ignore the ankle injury
thing for a minute, he does seem to have put up games where he
just hasn't scored at all. Yeah, but that's a bit of risk
that he probably don't usually want to pay at that kind of
price for her. Yeah, I'm with you.
It's like if he was 20 pics later, I'd be like totally fine.
You're getting the bills. Deep threat.
He's going to have these massive blow-up games, but Yeah.
You're you're giving up all these sort of elite Target
earners that are discounted for whatever reason.
Like I think DK Metcalf is maybe one example, you know he's
scoring the same amount of fantasy points as Gabe Davis but
I think is doing it in a much more sustainable way.
And I think is ceiling is just as high if not higher on a
weekly basis than Gabe gave us, but we haven't seen it yet, but
he's also a big massive, dude, that runs a 4-3 attached to a
good offense on a off. It's highly concentrated like I
don't see why you would ever pick Gabe, Davis over Decay
Metcalf. And lastly, I guess maybe.
You took Josh Allen it. Pick one out for whatever it
just. Yeah.
I think I think that's a good point.
Yeah for sure. Yeah.
Okay. Maybe let's anybody else want to
hit on here before we move on to the next set of wide receivers
and not really know. And I think that That it'll be
interesting to check in, with run them around Ali at more next
week and but I think we're still collecting some data there.
Yep. Yeah.
Again just I think still just a good signal is running all the
routes quick, hit again. I still think the Steelers are
undervalued. We see Pickens deante Johnson,
both in the bile. Oh, I'm I'm still Believers in
those guys. Anyways, let's let's move on to
the more rotational wide receivers in the 65 to 85% of
routes run. So in this chart here, it's guys
that have close to full-time roles, like Tyree kill, Jaylen,
waddle, Etc, two guys that are just turning a little bit over
50% of their team snap so maybe more slot receivers.
But again, looking at the same Shart here.
Draco. I think again we've talked about
a lot of these guys in the past. So don't want to write guys too
much. I think one kind of situation
that will be talked about a ton that is interesting.
Is the Giants Darius Slayton coming up here in the by low
category? Now assuming like this this is
all sort of contingent on one Dale and Tony remaining out and
who knows with those guys? But you think Slaton maybe in
your ffp seemed an event football guys.
Do you think he is an interesting ad this week?
He's a guy that we sort of like the talent profile in the past
when he was a rookie and he pops up here with a pretty big role.
Are you interested at all in Darius Layton?
And so gonna pick 2004 in the resurrection, huge value there
and you are the waiver guy and If I was to kind of gut, check
what I'd pay. Yeah.
Probably like 50 bucks. But yeah.
That seems about right on a team where you needed water Seaver.
Yeah. Right.
Yeah. Your weight where you need to
start someone next week? Seems like a good dad.
Good pic? Yeah, yeah, I think I think is
interesting in a guy that will go under the radar just because
yeah, top just talked about it but I think the talent profile
is interesting. He's just kind of never he's
been for whatever reason bench the past couple years after a
promising start to as a career. And now all of a sudden there's
no other receivers left in the team.
So I would. Yeah speculative twenty to fifty
dollar a day, depending on how badly your team needs needs,
water receiver piece, but I think I think he's somewhat
somewhat interesting. Other guys here are pretty
obvious. We see, Stefon Diggs, Tyree
kill, Jill and waddle Amon-Ra even on a sort of down week.
Last week, still still showing up as strong performers.
I think the Chiefs, you know, we've talked about him a bunch,
but the Chiefs are interesting to talk about.
What's, what's your sort of pulse check on on Juju, after
last week's somewhat down. For months.
I believe he earned eight targets, only converted that
into three for 30, something in that range.
And if you are Updating your by Asian art, maybe I'm said that
wrong priors. I've only ever seen it written
down and if you're updating your priors and you think about when
you're coming into summer of like oh hey e, he was eater just
in a bad situation with the Steelers and he still got it and
he's going to do really well for kinds of city or what we saw
with the Steelers is that that's kind of who he is now. and, and
we need to be careful about overpaying for um, yeah.
I think that that the evidence has been pretty strongly in
favor of like, yeah, it looks like that the information that
we got of him playing pearly for the Steelers was it was solid
info and am. Yeah, he is.
He does seem to be just the guy who ran a router and targets for
our. Maybe not even Aaron and targets
and get ping targets from a homes and The fact that Kelsey
is smashing so hard right now that I know you only had the
small many yards. We had put, he's been following
this year. I think that's only really
possible because the there other wide receivers are not playing
well Yeah, I mean yeah we've seen this especially in the red
zone and I think you know, sometimes in fantasy we talked
about touchdowns and sort of noise, but I think there's very
systemic things touchdowns to we see in the Red Zone, Casey wants
to get the running backs and their tight ends heavily
involved. It's not just Kelsey there, you
know, there's been goal, line Looks to Fordson, gray, Etc, and
then running backs CH has a big red zone rule, that's sort of
propped. Up his value, we've seen Pacheco
and weekend and a little bit in the red zone to you.
They're just there an offense. That's not involving the wide
receivers at all in the red zone and for guy like Juju who it
doesn't seem like it is like profile anymore.
We have the Breakaway Ron or deep-ass, I'm kind of like
concern, he's not really going to score touchdowns.
He maybe has some kind of PPR floor because he is earning, you
know, he still earning more targets than the other wide
receivers in the team. But it's It's not very exciting
and he's probably a guy, I'm fading even a, you know,
discounted price of pick nine or a TI-83 right now.
I just I don't really see the upside.
I think you can, you can make better picks there with Juju and
yeah, I agree. And so I joke I joke that
offline a bit about not turning this into a an extension of
Wagar waiver wire rack argument such discussions.
Do you think that at the fact that Juju and mvs have been kind
of just bodies? You think that that makes the
situation more exciting for a guy like Sky more?
Or is it kind of like an indictment that he's at?
He's not earning. Yeah.
He's not getting in on the field, over these guys.
Yeah, that's a good question. I'm going to quickly pull up.
So he again, very small simple. I think just 32 routes on the
season for Sky more. He has a 57%, waited, targets
per route run. So, you know, if he was in this
chart here, he would be like, kind of close to the Burke's,
you know, the Brooks range in terms of which are it's her out
on. That's your question.
I think it's interesting, but I, you know, I think that it makes
its car more is like on waivers in your league, you should
definitely pick them up because if he you know, if he does burn
somewhat of a full-time role, he definitely profiles better than
mvs in Juju. I think there's like two things
going on there. I think sometimes when guys have
a very small route percentage, you can see them being in the
game specifically for skiing touches.
I haven't seen that Like to be the case necessarily with Sky, I
haven't seen like jet sweeps. Those types of things.
Like I think he is earning some legitimate targets down the
field. So you know, I think maybe that
that Target rate is somewhat inflated by that but doesn't
explain the whole story. And then number two, again just
back to the, the Kelsey point, I think this is an offense where
like we look at all these water, severs underperforming and were
like somebody has turned targets like what are we missing one of
these Waters? Has to be good.
And I think sometimes the answer is just it's Travis Kelce is the
water receiver on the team. So I think I fell into that trap
a little bit. This offseason when I was like
one of these guys has to hit. I'm gonna draft some Juju, I'm
gonna drop some a cold, their drafts in the sky.
I'm gonna draft Man vs and like there are paths where they all
fail and that looks like the most likely path right now.
So that's a lot of words to say that like You know, when skies
free on waivers, think he's a good pickup but my base case is
sumption is still that he's not going to be, you know,
irrelevant guy down down the stretch for Fantasy.
But the upside, you know the upsides.
They're like you should Adam. He's available.
Now Dad? Yeah makes sense and it is nice
to see that. I guess he's up to 29% Rapture
now and but Yeah. And he what you would definitely
want to see at some point, start to beat out some of these
struggling veterans. Yeah.
And there's still like, you know, Watson is just an awesome
still getting some staffs or Coastal getting some snaps.
Oh, yeah. What we will see, I think he
will like to learn more snaps throughout the year but like how
much how big of a role that ends up being?
I think he might need an injury to McColl or mvs and more of
these guys to really I heard a big enough share that.
That means something. Let's finish off the wide
receivers here. I don't think I only had one
point on this. This last chart Draco which was
Alec, Alec Pierce. I think from a waivers
perspective and also that's all Resurrection perspective.
I think is interesting second-round draft Capital, we
see him go 8480. One last week out, Target
Michael. Pittman he actually has a higher
waited targets for Trout Run then Pittman I believe yes
slightly slightly higher than Pittman going back to the last
chart. So I think there's a
possibility, it's a small sample but I think there's a
possibility that he earns a full role and Isis, Paris, Campbell,
and sort of matches, Pittman and targets and opportunity.
So, for a guy that's probably on waivers in a lot of leagues and
free basically in the best world.
And I think he is an interesting guy to Target trying to find
this price right now. And that's why Resurrection, I
think it's quite low. I'll pick 126.
Okay, actually not not free. Yeah II think that's one of
those situations where the, the price changes, how you feel
about the situation and say you're interested in the late
round, but I don't think you are interested in tenth run, right?
Or do ya now 126? I Kind of asleep at the wheel.
There didn't think the market would catch up that quickly, but
maybe this is, this is more, maybe a point for.
I think even in some Main Events, you'll see Alec Pierce
available in the way of waiver wire and certainly in casual
leagues he's worth a pickup but yeah that's all Resurrection
actually would not endorse that price of 126.
I think it's interesting it on an overall point of we see these
guys with the low row percentages that obviously, you
want to exclude Chris Godwin because coming back from injury,
they almost all have this kind of like not playing very well
and I don't want statistic profile of like, you've got
David Bell, you've got AJ Green, Chris Murr, just a lot of guys
that when they do go out there that they're, I guess, running
wind Sprints, it makes sense, right?
If they're not stealing seeing the field, they get out there
and they're they're bad, but yeah, yeah, I agree with that
point. It's kind of what you'd expect
final quick. It's on this chart Art
Mackenzie, I think Isaiah McKenzie, we saw Shakir perform
well in that slot role in Buffalo.
I think Mackenzie is sort of a priority at anywhere where he's
available. I think that role is pretty
exciting and made this point before but I think Julio is now
just sort of a contingent bet. I think the team is looking to
rest him until the playoffs it seems, or maybe when they need
him, if Evans Our God, when it goes down.
So He's probably doesn't have Standalone.
He's a better. I think, actually like managed
then than best ball pick almost where you probably will know
when to start him but he's not going to provide much Standalone
value. Yeah, let's move on to tie
downs. We don't need to spend time
discussing Quinta cephas and trencher feel, don't think?
Let's talk about Kate, Upton and said, yeah, okay, it on a on
this chart so we're in business there with that.
Yeah, I could, let's break down this truck quickly before we get
into the exciting K Dot and discussion for tight ends were
looking at utilization and efficiency here, starting with
the tight ends that have more than 60% of routes run.
So this chart here is pretty simple.
We're just looking at the percent of Team drawbacks and
then how many routes It's or what percentage of Team
drawbacks are these Titans running a route.
What percentage of the team drawbacks?
Are? They pass blocking?
This gives us a view of the tight ends that have the biggest
past game rolls on their offenses, on the bottom here.
We also have targets for Route, run, and average depth of
Target. So you can see which waters
herbs, right? Which tight ends are being used,
more like water, severs, earning high amounts of targets,
learning targets, downfield, verse the guys that are being
used as sort of more dump off, Off traditional tight ends that,
You Know, Cee-Lo, a dots and don't see many many targets.
So that's the idea behind this chart.
You're going anywhere. You wanted to start here before
we get to Decay Dalton. Yeah.
And the thing that struck me straight away is that.
So George kid'll, Ford and Route share.
I think probably say this every week and there's almost at the
grumbling about the pass blocking, but still for it and
Route. Share as probably would like to
see. Hi Higher ed targets for
everyone and 16% and but I would expect to see that and over full
season and so like you said earlier still buying and George
kidding. Yeah I'm just Martingale and
George Kittle until until I go bankrupt.
That's been my fantasy strategy for the past couple years.
I don't see any reason why I should stop exactly tree point
for. I mean EZ game.
Yeah. Yeah I think another thing to
jump in here tighten the tie Higbee thing is interesting.
You see, 25% targets for Route run, so he's running, he's
learning a ton of targets on his routes, but as a taut is 3.4, I
kind of see this more than anything that a symptom that
it's a symptom, that the Rams offense is broken.
If on, you know, nearly he's running, nearly a full set of
Route. So kind of close to a quarter, a
fifth of the Rams pass plays right now.
Are three are dumped off stew. Tyler higbee.
That's not gonna work. And you've seen the Rams really
struggle for the past couple weeks, so I don't know as much
as this sort of PPR cheat code for Tyler.
Higbee, like you should be happy where you draft him at, pick
160. I am not really interested in
taking him. Where's price has risen up in to
pick 82 in the best while Resurrection because I think the
Rams are going to figure something out.
I don't know if it's fan Jefferson coming back.
He gets more involved. I don't know if it's Signing
Odell, or will Fuller or something, but this offense is
like systemically broken right now and I don't I don't see this
Tyler higbee, roll, really holding strong because it's it's
just a, it's a dumb rule. It's a dumb way to run your
offense. So, yeah, it's interesting
though, it's one of those things where the people, that, who are
the analysts who look pretty cheap tight ends, one of the
major, one of the main kind of routes, It's that they use is to
find the guy who's gone to just be out there running every
route. Almost a get participation
trophy points and I mean, Tyler higbee is that guy and yeah,
super shot. If you draft him at pick 160
this offseason or whatever like that, that's a sharp pick.
But now I'm not I'm not paying up for it anymore.
Like yeah, right and it's one of its one of those pics.
Where are you in most scenarios? You're probably fine taking them
and like it's not going to lose you.
It's not going to mean your team loses but it's it is very hard
for me to see these. Like oh, you come into the
playoffs and tar higbee's catches treat touchdowns, and
and that wins you that went your league or tournament.
It's I don't see him being the guy who does that.
I'm not saying that it's impossible but and I think I
just give me yours kiddo. If you give me a choice between
kiddo and higbee, it's very easily kiddo.
Yeah. Yeah not even not even close for
me either. Yeah, I think a lot of these
guys we've already hit on a lot. I think we do like was a bit of
a joke but the K Dot and thing we should talk about can braid
was injured. Yeah, we have, we have to do.
I'm legally obligated to talk about Kate.
Arden, it was in my statues in contract.
He, he ran. I think all the routes last
week. I think.
Only two games of data for him, which is why he appears here on
this chart. But anyways you've made all the
routes with can braid having a concussion.
I would I get this is a tight end premium managed League take
but I would look for a cheap. Add on the wire for Kate Austen,
we saw cambree in that role. Not really do anything and
Caitlin didn't necessarily Flash in a big way but it could be a
situation where next week braid is still out.
Owens running all the routes and he pops up for, you know, five
catches and a touchdown. And I just want to make that add
one week or the early, rather than one week, too late if
you're sort of desperate for tight at any time that's running
all the routes, should be should be owned and especially if he's
on, you know, connected to Tom Brady, he's he is worth a cheap,
add any other tight end takes before we get into the backup,
the backup tight end, takes and any tight intakes and I mean,
the most obvious thing to me is that you really got.
You got your mark on Drew Travis Kelce.
It's not an original talk. But after you got your top guys,
it really is a Minefield and Hayden Hirsch been playing well,
15% targets per outrun not terrible for yard a DOT, not
great and And this is I guess it's a lot of players.
Here we go. Yeah that's fine.
Yeah yeah and I guess it just kind of underlines why you want
the elite guys. Yeah totally agreed.
I mean they're separating and such a massive way and that's
why you take this tabs on the elite tight ends like you know
we missed at least it looks like so far we missed on kidal pits
and Waller in sort of the The next range of guys, I have some
optimism that those guys will bounce back sort of different
levels often as, and for each. But, yeah, it's really Andrews
and Kelsey, and then, you know, Cole commit, running all the
routes and getting 11 percent Target. / route Runner.
I think that that's how Titan is similar to running back in that,
are they probably on an aggregate.
So they might go. Like, it might feel terrible to
picking one are early because or it might pick feel terrible.
Even picking down Waller as areas he went.
But it's really hard to predict who are the tight ends.
Whoo, who are the Earley tight ends, who are going to really
separate and and last year and Mark Andrews was going in that
range and he was the guy who crushed and yeah, but you just I
think he just To be systematically overweight, the
guys who could foreseeably have, they kind of Seasons that at
Andrews and kelsier happen. Yeah.
And some, yeah, I totally get that point.
Like, I don't think it was a bad process, pick to go with Waller
pits or Kettle, you know, specifically, on Waller.
He had the injury. That's, that's bad luck.
He also had these, he's had a pretty massive Red Zone role
this year. That hasn't been converted into
touchdowns. A lot of touchdowns go through
his hands or sort of big hits. And then Zone that I've brought
some balls free. So, you know, there's a world
where he doesn't get injured last week has a big game and
convert some of those touchdowns weeks.
One through four and you're excited about the pic but it
hasn't worked out that way. For whatever reason, let's
finish off here with the most exciting chart here the back up
tight and I'm going to look at my phone.
I'm Gonna Let You yeah I dropped out of the The stream last week
unintentionally, of course, to let trick of take us home.
But yeah, now the only things I wanted to highlight here Jesper
horse dead looks to be the Waller replacement Moreau was
also injured last week. So if he's active, I would
expect row over horse dead but horses ran a lot of the routes
with Waller out and Yeah again tight end.
Um take if you're scraping the bottom of the barrel for a
starter during the by weeks he probably is not a terrible add
if both Moreau and Waller are out and then the other one I
want to mention Peyton Hendershot looks like the
handcuffed to Schultz. I think he was scooped in a
decent bit of leagues already but Schultz reactivated the
injury and I think Schulz is kind of a system.
Died anyways. And if Peyton Henry, sharp
starts getting all those Schultz routes, I think he is pretty
interesting, monitor the news on, on Schultz injury there, but
that's another guy to watch. And yeah, I can't force myself
to come up with like, a Daniel Ballinger Tommy tremble.
Take. So might be time to end the
podcast. Yeah.
And we brought this right up into the wire.
Yeah, Pete would be mad if we If we force that clip top shuttle,
start late. So we are not going to do that,
we're going to finish out. Yeah.
So yeah, that'll do it this week.
Thanks for everyone who tuned in live.
And yeah, I will be for those of you in the ship chasing Discord,
I will be posting the charts there this week.
You can also check out my weekly thread on Twitter where I post
all these charts and give a breakdown and a little bit more.
Details for the action will takeaways that I see from the
last couple weeks of data. Draco.
Anything to plug before we wrap this up?
And no, nothing. Nothing that unusual.
Well, sounds good. All right, everybody.
We will see you next week. Good luck and week 6.