All right, we are back for an annual series that we do here on
the channel and the podcast feed.
It is of course the FFPC mini. So this is how we kick off high
stakes manage season. We always hop in an FFPC slow
draft and get on the horn here and talk through all of our
decisions in real time. So you can kind of get a peek
behind the curtain of how we kind of hash these things out.
I will admit all of us have have been firmly in the best ball
streets up until this point, so this is going to be a really fun
deduction to the high stakes ADP landscape.
These videos are made available early for our YouTube members,
then the audio will end up on the podcast feed on delays.
But if you want to see the videos become a YouTube member
you can hop in the discord as well.
But I think that covers all the housekeeping.
Then Gretch Pat Crane, How we feeling about getting the main
event draft underway here? I'm feeling good.
Like it is funny, you know. We're doing this a little later
than usual, I think. And not crazy later, but I think
normally we try to hop in the very first main, which didn't
end up working out with logistical stuff this year, but
you know, a little later. And I've done more drafts in my
entire this year than I've ever had my entire life probably put
together. And yet I feel like.
A. Little bit more behind like I
feel like I'm you know we we kind of had I had a better sense
of the FFPC landscape last you know mid-july than I do.
Here in late July, Yeah. How are you feeling about it,
Gretch? Kind of.
Because I know this has been your first time getting to do a
bunch of early best ball stuff, too.
Are you ready to do the hard pivot to manage strategy?
I am. And that's like a big thing that
I don't know, that I kind of wanna chat with you guys about
as we get going is that pivot and what it entails and what our
goals are. It's I mean it's a lot different
and I think I've come around big time and best ball and learned a
lot from you guys about not taking too hard of player
stances and the ways that that can play out in best ball and
especially over a massive portfolio that you want to get
some exposures to players even if like you're not you don't
like them. You know, you want to, you want
to be balanced. You want to, especially with the
ways that we correlate in week 17 and and and the stacks and
we, you know stack players on. That's been a harder thing for
me to come through, come around to in best ball, but in managed,
I do feel like it's something that especially when you don't
have a ton of managed teams, I like to take my stances, I like
to, you know, I like to make my my plays on guys and so that's
something that I don't know, I'm kind of curious you guys
thoughts on as well. I felt like it was something
that last year we maybe didn't do.
Like if if if we can be self critical that we didn't do a
great job on necessarily where we were more willing to let the
room give us stuff. And this is something I'm going
to write something about this this offseason.
But I feel like like I have this this piece I'm going to write
that I'm going to title something like we're all sort of
slaves to whatever worked for us in the past or something like
that like. And so I had a team that
finished top 20 in FFPC main a few years back and it was very
much a team where I went out and got guys that I wanted.
And so I have like a lot of success with that.
And I think that's part of why I'm biased that direction.
I'm not sure that it's the right way, but it's sort of like what
I want. You know what I mean?
Yeah. And I agree with you.
I think the thing that I like, the idea being because we are
going to do a bunch of high stakes drafts this year, is like
being flexible with the structures we use, but being
very intentional about like the players were selecting with
those structures. You know, like if we have an
early slot in FFPC in this draft, we're about to pull up,
we have the 1:11, so we're not going to have access to Travis
Kelsey. Travis Kelsey's off the board.
Then you can start to have some interesting conversations.
Do you want to prioritize an elite tight end in these first
few rounds or do we want to take advantage of a cranking purple
strategy, you know, this year because there's so much.
But obviously if we have an early draft slot, like, I'm
completely open to a Travis Kelsey anchor elite tight end
build. So that's the thing too.
I'm kind of excited to let some of our draft slots, you know,
push us into different textures and styles of drafts, but still
be very dialed in on the type of players we want to be heavy on
this year. Yeah, I would.
The one thing I'd say about getting our guys, I definitely
feel like in this first draft, one of the things that I've kind
of fallen into as a trap is like feeling like it's my only draft
of the entire highstakes season and being like, I got to get
this guy, I got to get this guy like 80 PB damned.
But we'll have chances to get some of our targets in other
drafts. At the same time.
I do agree with you Ben, that like I want to be building teams
with players that. I feel like have the right
upside profiles for this, this format and this tournament.
You are trying to finish first out of a ton of people you know.
It is a top heavy kind of payout structure.
Advancing out of your league is important, but ultimately you
want to win the whole thing here and I don't want to let the room
just boxes into whatever kind of middling architect of dude that
we don't really feel very good about, so.
Yeah, I kind of want a little bit of both where like as we sit
here in the 11, I don't love this spot, but there's a couple
guys that I think, you know, I'm going to be willing to like
reach on in this spot. Yeah.
So it kind of prioritizes those things.
We're obviously pretty aligned in a lot of what we think about.
So we're we're definitely kind of picking nits and it's it's a
very limited like the application of this discussion
is very limited in terms of. Whether we might lean one way or
another, but we're gonna be very close, is what I'm getting at.
Yeah, I don't know. I want well, this is a
conversation more for the 3-4, the five, six turns, but I think
and maybe in the six, seven turns, but I think we might have
some disagreements on kind of who fits what architectures.
We have a lot of good discussions on those wide
receiver profiles I think as the draft moves on.
But but I think we're aligned in sort of what we're trying to do
and then to kind of swing back the other to Pat's point too is
one thing I've noticed and this goes back to even me saying I
like different structures is I I want to say the couple years and
maybe it was last year in the year before too.
Like we really like the idea of an anchor running back in an
elite tight end in rounds one and two and then like scoop up
all that wide receiver value like hammer it after that.
And then I always remember those were when we got like you know
we're reaching to get that first tight end because we had a lot
of late draft slots or we were reaching to take a guy like
Antonio Gibson. You know, because we're like,
yeah, he's our favorite of the remaining like bell cow and it
that fit that ideal structure that we wanted to do.
And that's where I want to kind of it's like let's utilize the
structure that makes most sense for our draft slot, but then
still be very, very picky with the players we're selecting.
I love that point too, because I think you can still do an anchor
running back or an anchor tight end this year in particular.
Yeah, in the 3rd and 4th and the 5th, like we can actually hit
dead zone running backs as an anchor or we can hit a tight end
in those ranges as an anchor tight end.
So. It is a great year for that
exact point. Well, if you still want to be
anchored on those, So not really a tight end from this half of
the board, This half of the board you kind of get one crack
at an elite tight end. Cuz look, basically if the ADP,
I'm looking at fancy Mojos ADP the last three days from the
Fantasy Pros Championship, which I figured would have kind of
more drafts in the main event right now.
And it looks like you get Andrews kind of at the 1-2 turn.
It's a little bit of a reach. He's got an ADP.
He's in the middle of the second hold up here on screen to the
Roto based draft Draft grid here.
ADP grid. And then your odds of getting a
tight end, Yeah, cuz Hawkinson's got an ADP of 304 kittles.
Kittle, Pitts and Waller are all in the late 4th to mid 5th.
Got her as well in at the 5:06 so like.
And I think there's a pretty big tier break there.
Yeah, before Evan Ingram in the in the market reflects that.
So I I think it's kind of like Andrews or nothing as far as
elite tight ends go from the back half of the board in this
CDP environment. Well, I mean, you still get an
option at the 3-4 turn. I was gonna say like early
Waller and this kind of goes back to that thing, like how
much of A reach in this format is Kittler Pitts at 402 or 4/3?
I'd rather reach 3 picks for. Handers, then take a guy that's
401. Yeah, so it's like a half a
round for. It's like a full round for Pitt.
Like, I think we'll probably get pits in other drafts if he's
gonna stick at the end of the fourth round.
Yeah, the other potential answer is to not take.
In a leak type when we're drafting in the 11th slot, I
think a guy like Pat Friarmuth is still pretty undervalued.
I'm looking at the 7-8 turn and saying wow, I mean if we had a
shot at him at 7:11, I would be very in on that pic.
JSN listed right next to him there.
So I'm sure the receivers there are still very interesting as
well. But yeah, it would change the
way we would approach that and it might be 1 where we crank it
purple later for sure. But the circle I I wanted to
circle all the way back a little bit to the.
Player like targets versus like a DP discussion.
One of the things this is a really large tournament, right?
But one of the things I do want to shift our mind a little bit
and I don't know if I'm talking to you guys or talking to the
listeners more, but the best ball discussions that we have
and all the research that's done in the big best ball tournament
formats, we have to keep in mind that are hundreds of thousands
of entrants, right. And that's like a really extreme
contest size, this contest still very large.
I don't know the exact number of entrants, but it's like sub
10,000, right? They're right around 10,000
maybe. I believe it's four.
Let me, let me go check here. I thought it was like 4200.
Yeah. I think it's sub 10,000, so a
lot smaller 10,000, yeah. Yeah, a lot, lot smaller.
I think a lot more flexibility in terms of like the lessons
that we've learned in Best Ball about being conscious about ADP,
about getting good prices on stuff.
That's still very important. But this is a type of contest
where I so I go back to that. I mentioned that team that I did
well in 2019, that happened to be a team that was drafted after
the Thursday night game. Will Fuller played on the
Thursday night game. He was like a seventh round pick
that year. We took him 4-10.
We had the 3rd pick, took him on the fourth round to make sure we
got his because he had a really good Thursday night game.
Took him really, really high, way higher than in context of
like basketball. We talked about a lot of people
got him in the seventh round way higher than where everyone else
got him. He ended up getting suspended
late that year, but he was a really key piece throughout the
1st, 10 or 11 weeks to us like advancing.
Obviously he didn't end up being a huge part of the the puzzle at
the end, but it was interesting. Like towards the end we didn't.
First of all we didn't even really need him as our fourth
round pick. We were still like live to win
going into the final week, but also that that price difference
compared to every other willful or drafter of like 3 rounds.
It it didn't really come into play big time for us again him
being suspended kind of makes this a tougher A tougher example
but there are other players that we we went and like reached for.
It's just that like when you get to the final round in the main
with sub 10,000 people, it is a more limited number of player of
drafters and the and like. Especially with Manage, where
you can win on the waiver wire as well, right?
You can change up your roster on the waiver wire.
There's a lot of you. Have to set your starting lineup
as well so you know it can be like you might have the league
winner and not play them. And I will say too like one
shit, you know, Obviously we're all in the weeds on the week 17
correlations and stuff like that.
There is obviously a shift here. Week 17 is not as important, but
weeks 15 through 17 in the hole are very important, that Sprint.
And you know, I've looked a lot too at like the best playoff
schedules, you know for for just those weeks as well, looking at
who has the most Dome games. Part of why I was a little
spooked about like even the Patriot stuff is because they
play all these tough outdoor weather games, Weeks 15 through
17. So that's something I want to
make sure we have in the back of our head too.
And the way I and I was talking about this with Pat on a best
ball breakfast of just like in an individual draft, you still
want to make the best possible pick if like Mac Jones for
whatever reason, I doubt it. But if for some reason he's the
best possible pick, But then thinking about it from a
portfolio perspective of like tilting your overall exposures
toward the teams that have the the better Sprint.
Because this is still incredibly top heavy and you need to be
optimizing to have the best team 15 through 17.
So I do want to make sure we're thinking through those.
And I would say the bar is higher for how good your team
needs to be to take down a three-week Sprint.
Then to advance, advance and then win in the the final week,
right? Like you can squeak through,
squeak through, and then you're as live as anybody.
But if you kind of squeak through in weeks 15 and 16,
you're not very live. You might be blocked, you might
be dead to win the tournament at that point.
So you need to put up a ton of points all three weeks to have a
chance of finishing first in this tournament.
So it but at the same time advancing is more important in
the main event. Than in like best ball media,
you don't really win much if you advance.
The best ball media you win. You win some prizes if you
advance in these leagues. So it's kind of this weird thing
where it's almost like more important to be a super team
when you advance, but also you want to focus more on getting
there. And we'll see that like we
always see that that dynamic you talked about with Fuller.
Like some running back will have, you know, a couple
touchdowns or whatever, Like if Pacheco has a big game.
Thursday night he will be like a second round pick in the Friday
drafts, or maybe even a first right?
That's just the way it always goes cuz people do focus on
advancing these teams. So should we talk?
Let's dive in here. If you guys have been watching
the video of this, we do have the draft board pulled up.
Like I said, we're drafting from the 111 right now, 7 picks are
off the board. Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase,
Christian McCaffrey, Travis Kelsey, Tyree Kill, Cooper Cup,
Bijon Robinson, someone on the clock right now at 18.
So we have three more picks before our next pick.
Let's let's kind of just get into it here of kind of who you
guys think would be some of the ideal targets for us at 1:11 and
why you guys are discussing it. I'll pull up that ADP stuff
again here too for the main event.
Yeah, I mean I think probably we're going to see Austin Eckler
go before we get we are on the clock of as one of these next
three picks. I would assume Stefan Diggs as
well, but he might still be there.
I think we're going to be in the CD Lam or A.J.
Brown range as we look at the, you know the current ADP Almond
Rossi, let's. Talk through.
If Eckler was there, though, would he be the pick for you?
He would for me, yeah. Yeah, I think for me he would be
for me and I, I would just guess it's probably what, sub 10%.
He's probably there on 111, yeah.
Since we don't normally take running backs, yeah, we should.
We should mention that just in case.
Well. Bijon's the other one where I
would have. I would have been psyched.
Through it, but he's already off the board, so we don't really
need to spend a ton of time on that, but I think we're we are.
To your question about Eckler, we are angling pretty quickly
toward a potential receiver, receiver start.
I think that Mark Andrews in round two thing is an
interesting conversation. Maybe you can get into like a
Jonathan Taylor in round two conversation, although I mean
I'm, I'll just say for me targets, the targets would be
Lamb if he gets there over A J. Brown.
As much oh, I like a J. Brown a lot more than lamb.
OK, that's a good discussion. And then actually like even even
bigger targets for me, Alman Ross St.
Brown, I mean Lamb. I think from a cost and like
portfolio perspective, I definitely want some Alman Ross
a guy I want like as much as I can get my hands on this year.
And then Garrett Wilson is similar to Alman Roth.
Those are two guys that I'm really excited about.
I'm curious how you guys fit with like that group of guys.
Well one one thing I would just mention and again because I'm
I'm legitimately trying to reorient my brain from underdog
stuff, half point PPR. It is interesting that Aman Ra's
ADP, I guess he is going ahead of A.J.
Brown here. So maybe that reflects like the
half point versus full point, but Aman RA in full point I
think I like him over digs even. Yeah, in in this format.
I think Amanra versus CD's an interesting one, but I just
wanted to make the point that Aman RA is very interesting to
me and also another team Detroit schedule is playoff schedule is
awesome. Pat, what's your case for A.J.
Brown over? Lamb he's, I think a much better
receiver. I don't think we quite got the
full CD Lamb breakout. CD Lamb is good, but he's not
like A.J. Brown is incredibly good and CD
Lamb is. I don't think he's a superstar.
I think he's very good player. A J Brown's on a better offense,
I think pretty clearly. He finished third in open score
last year behind Deonte Johnson and Tyler Lockett.
He's, you know, his stats were a little bit underwhelming in
certain games, but they pulled their starters in several games
last year. Is about as high as a weekly
ceiling of any wide receiver on the board.
I think he's up there with Jefferson and Chase and and Cup
in terms of like his weekly potential.
You know, yeah, he's got to deal with Demonte Smith and Dallas
Goddard. Some target competition.
They're not going to throw as many times as some other
offenses. But I I think the Cowboys are
kind of a sneaky, like, really disappointing offense candidate.
Maybe not even sneaky. I mean we all, we've all, but
it's a McCarthy offense. Like there's some real downside
risk there. And I'm taking the player who I
think is less talented. In fairness to Lamb, he finished
fifth and open score. He's good but.
Like when you just look at some of the advanced stats.
I mean, Agent Brown's off the charts again.
He's off the charts every single year he's in his prime.
He's better than Devonte Smith, like by decent amounts, even
though, you know, Devonte Smith got a lot of targets last year,
too. Devon Smith's very good.
But I'm just like, I'm getting an elite player on an elite
offense. I don't really want to overthink
it. So I I mean, obviously all this
stuff about Agent Brown being great, I agree with four
straight years of a 2.5 plus. Yards per out run, which is an
incredibly good number. You're the one who referenced, I
think with Debo a couple years ago, I can't remember who, but
starting your career with multiple years of 2.5 yards per
out run in a row is really strong.
And he's done it four years in a row, now 2. 3 yards per out run
in a row was the static EBO. And yeah, so I mean, what he's
done, it's two, yeah. What he's done is. 2.5
Believable Lamb's breakout last year 2.38 Still an incredibly
strong number. Lamb has started his career at
1.812062.38. Is back-to-back year emerged as
a class wide receiver one for sure.
I just don't. But no, no.
But. But to your point, even in his
breakout of 2.38, he's not better than any year of AJ
Brown's 4 year career. He's not even particularly close
to your point. That's very valid.
My issue with Brown, as much as I've obviously loved him, you
know, every year of his career. Is that I do feel like last year
somewhat from a statistical standpoint, he like that wasn't
like the best case scenario and he didn't hit a real ceiling.
So this price at late first round.
I really disagree with that that it was a best case scenario like
they the case OK. I mean, they pulled their
starters in a bunch of games. Like he didn't get like purely
from a, you know, accumulation standpoint.
He was. He was neutered in some games.
Well, I guess. What games?
How many? The Steelers?
Game they pulled their starters. There's a couple others.
Plus they also had the games where they would just like wipe
the floor with guys and then run all over them for the
second-half, like if they're more competitive this year.
The other thing about the Eagles is they are.
They showed a willingness to go toe to toe.
They showed a willingness to attack like that Bears game.
Everyone thought they would just run the entire game.
They were aggressive in the beginning and then they did run
the ball a decent amount but. They attacked a very, very poor
Bears secondary before they ran all over a very Bad Bears run
defense. And so I think, like his best
case scenario is some teams push back on them, but there's still
a percentage of their dropbacks that are going to be Jalen Hurt
scrambles. A percentage of their play con.
That's going to be Jalen Hurts. Rush's.
Jalen Hurts himself had more carries inside the 10 yard line
than pass attempts. That's not just team rush
attempts, It's quarterback rush attempts.
Right. Like as far as the touchdown
rate being so heavily leaning towards their running Td's, I do
think that has to regress some. They had a massive rushing TD
rate, 32 rushing Td's. I don't think Hertz is gonna run
13 Td's again. But there is like a systemic
this is the way we attack in close.
This is our red zone plan. And then in terms of like
overall pass volume, I hear you that they they pull their
starters on their their pass rate maybe can tick up a little.
I actually you know you're you're selling me on that a
little bit but how much more can their pass rate go up And when
you look at their target volume last year they stayed so healthy
only four wide receivers got a target all year.
They were able to do a lot of that RPO stuff that I wrote
about where they were like you just look at their targets A J.
Brown 145, Duan dismiss 136. Dallas guard 69, misses five
games. Quez is at 51 as their fourth
highest targeted player. Gain.
Wells at 29. After that, Sanders.
Miles Sanders 26. And they don't have another guy
over 20 targets. It's like the hundred 45136.
And then it's just like a steep drop to their third, fourth,
fifth Guys. It could be that concentrated
again, I actually think. How would it not do things?
It won't be the media's the keyest guy.
No, it will be. But my point is that's why I'm
saying it's maxed out. Yeah, I think you actually are
selling me a little bit that they could throw more and they
could be pushed more and all those things.
But basically, Brown can't consolidate what volume there is
more. So you need Jalen Hertz to
suddenly not be running. You need design runs to come way
down, quarterback design runs, and I do think they're still
gonna call those things as well. So I agree with you, it's still
gonna be as concentrated and maybe there is still some meat
on the bone here, but how much more meat is there for the
overall team pass volume? I think it's a really fair
question. So just to bring us down to
earth just a little bit. My guess there, there certainly
is a scenario where we have a CD Lamb versus a J.
Brown decision. I think the most likely thing is
that Eckler, Lamb and Diggs are the three next picks and the one
thing that I would maybe push to.
Lamb over A.J. Brown is simply the fact that
the of the ATP game and that there's a much better chance
that A.J. Brown comes back around and you
could maybe get both of them. Because with the 12 drafter,
it's kind of like a choose your own adventure there.
Like if they want a running back, they could take Berkeley
or Jonathan Taylor. If they want the elite tight
end, they're going to reach for Mark Andrews.
They're like there's combos they could do that don't involve wide
receiver, wide receiver. So that's just one other thing
to consider Also in that scenario.
There's a chance that. Amanra St.
Brown is also pushing another guy down.
So just like the in this in this format, does Hertz make it to
3/4 at all? He it looks like his ADP is 3/2
right now, which is interesting cuz that's correlated ADP wise
with the Devonta Smith who goes at 2:10 and then or 211 and then
hers goes at 3:00 two. I would also be more compelled
if we had a shot to get Hertz at 3-4.
I think if we want to set up a premium stack like that, the
only real opportunity we have is an Andrews Lamar.
Cuz Lamar does go at the 3-4 turn, but just to kind of just
to finish up this wide receiver conversation, I said we might be
on different pages later. I think we're on different pages
now. I don't really like CD Lam as
the pick like at all. Like I would rather take atoms
over CD Lam at the end. What I would say about the ADP
game, I mean this whole Jimmy Garoppolo.
You know, everyone, like, so afraid that he was not going to
be their quarterback and what was going to happen to Adams,
Like, that stuff is over now. We all, you know, probably
overreacted. I thought I was actually real
heavy on Adams, came to find out, checking today that I was
just like slightly overweight. So I'm, I'm a little annoyed
with myself for not being more aggressive with him.
But I mean, he's someone that I think like, why aren't we taking
him over? CD land?
He's awesome and he's, he's got a quarterback in place.
They're going to have to throw a bunch.
They're running backs holding out.
Jacoby Myers is like, fine, but he's not going to like Impinge
on Devonte Adams ability to earn targets.
The guy's an incredible RAL runner and has been for years.
So, like, I I guess what my thing with Lamb is like if I
don't think he's more talented than Brown or Adams, why don't
you think Lamb is talented? I do think he's talented.
I don't think he's more talented than A J.
Brown or Devonte Adams. Yeah, then.
And if that's the case, am I excited about his offense?
And for me the the answer is like, no.
I I'm, I'm nervous about his offense.
So then what? So then OK, let me think.
If I'm going to a guy who I don't think is as talented as
those two guys, I think I I'd almost rather take Aminara or
something where, you know, I know I'm the wack of our stuff
are. We all are you guys.
All because I think I'm I'm a monrah.
Even over lamb. Like, are you guys a monrah over
lamb? It's close to me.
Honestly, I'd probably be Lamb just, but that's like a real
coin flip for me. Cuz if that's a coin flip, what
we could do if we're in the spot, assuming it goes Eckler,
Diggs and well, if Lamb goes off, we're gonna have A.J.
Brown, Amanra. And so Pat, you're saying you're
basically A.J. Brown, Devonta Lamb and Ammanra
as a coin flip. After those two, I would have
both of Lamb and Ammanra ahead of A.J.
Brown and Adams, probably in a vacuum.
So that's that's tricky. Where do you fall in those?
But. If Adams ADP was 9.9 or 9.81
spot ahead of Lamb, would that change things for you?
Because I think that's where we're headed.
I think Adams is gonna come back up and pass him again.
I'm pretty concerned about the Raiders and the ways that you're
concerned about the Cowboys. I'm way more concerned about the
Raiders than the Cowboys. Josh McDaniels I don't think is
a good coach and I think there's like there's I think there's
like legit we have a meltdown in in tear down kind of situation.
Yeah like just and Adams maybe even like traded mid season and
then he's trying to like catch on in a new offense mid season.
There was some talk about them potentially moving him this off
season. Yeah, I just feel like we're
looking at some weird outcomes with for the Raiders personally.
That feels fair. The other thing let's to kind of
reframe it and then we can maybe circle back is the other big
decision point is because we certainly will line up to go
wide receiver, wide receiver. I think we're going to like a
guy like Devonte Adams or Garrett Wilson there.
The other thing is, do we entertain a Mark Andrews reach
or do we entertain a guy I think all of us like as well, and
Jonathan Taylor, who I expect. To also be there in the early
2nd, so to me that's kind of the decision.
Is it wide receiver, wide receiver or wide receiver?
Jonathan Taylor, How where you going?
I'm pretty high on Taylor. Where are you out on Taylor,
Pat? I like Taylor.
I mean, me too. It's tough because I'm like used
to getting Taylor in the late 2nd now with best ball drafts or
the mid to late 2nd and so I I'm passing on.
I've gotten used to passing on Taylor from the 11 hole, but.
I mean it's Jonathan Taylor. Like he could be the the running
back one pretty easily, I guess. He definitely takes a bit more
of a hit in this PPR format. You know, if Minshew plays this
year, he's really not. I think he could have Minshew
played. Minshew, yeah, But I I'm very
skeptical that Minshew plays. I mean, maybe a game or two, but
I I don't think Minshew's getting any real run.
Like they they know what this year is.
It's first year for the head coach.
They just spent the third overall pick on this guy.
They're fully committed. They've never even really hinted
that they want to play Minshew for for anything.
Like, I think if Richardson's bad enough, Minshew comes over
from Philly with Stikin and knows the offense that it's a
pretty easy Hey, we need to sit him down this the backup knows
the. He's playing, yeah, but
Richardson has to be really bad and and probably in a way that's
hurting Taylor's early season. Run out.
Like he's, you know, like we're kind of like, all right,
Minshew's in. It's week six.
Maybe this wasn't a bust. So it makes me nervous.
I just don't. I don't really think there's a
Minshew starts the first six games and and it's productive
and Taylor Taylor's doing great because of that type of outcome.
I don't. I don't think that's the plan,
No. I think Richardson starts week
one. I think there's some chance that
he gets sat down for a bit and then comes back.
Basically, but that's that's not good for Taylor.
Maybe it's good in a sense. It's gonna be a rough ride for
signing up for a rough ride in managed if that happens.
So one thing just to just to then because I know you we did
mention Andrews. Like I think my lien would be
like looking at the draft grid like the current ADP draft grid
would be to almost like play our late slots as more punt tight
end builds unless there's a super interesting faller.
And then be like let's play in Andrews or Hawkinson or Kittle
through our middle tight end slots and then let's play Kelsey
and pits from our early draft slots.
Just based on currently how Adp's lining up and I guess the
argument would be how solidified is this, We're going to see a
lot of movement, but just if we are getting pretty good volume
down that would be my only thought there on on the Andrews
point, I think that's a, I think it's a fair one and kind of
where I fall too. And then similarly with Taylor
having an ADP right now it's very, very early, but it's 17.3.
I'm hesitant to pull the trigger on him and the 1-2 turn in part
because anybody that can get back to a Cooper Copper at Tyree
Hill or even like a Jamar Chase team and you get Taylor and we
have, you know, whoever we settle on as our first time
receiver. And Taylor like, I feel like
we're pretty big dogs in that spot.
Like I think yeah, I wanna, I wanna be taking guys at the 11,
the 1-2 turn at the 11 spot here that I don't think the Cup or
Tyree Drafter or Travis Kelsey drafter is going to get really
ever. And so in that regard, like I
think I would lean even towards A.J.
Brown over over Taylor, even though I think I might prefer
Taylor in a vacuum. Yeah, that's fair too.
And also depending on like how close we have guys like Pollard
and Ramondre in Breese, I think we all like Taylor Smidge ahead.
But maybe how much to justify not letting the kind of the room
dictate where you're taking those early running backs?
Yeah, although if we wanna. If we want a hero's RV, start
like a true hero. I mean, we can get a we can get
an ETN in the fourth or something.
But if we want that true hero running back start, it's Taylor
or Chubb based on this ADP Cuz we're not.
From this part of the board from.
This part of the board, Yeah, so.
Cuz that's a good point too to bring up, because maybe like we
wouldn't like if Gibbs fell to the Lady Gibbs 311 three. 11 I
would be pretty into I'd be yeah.
It's not a true hero RB to your point Pat.
It's not like it's not, I mean. I play him like I just drafted.
You've said that. I was just gonna bring that up.
Yeah, I think of it too. Now when I take him, I'm like,
it's a really smart way of thinking about drafting him, I
think. Yeah, yeah, cuz he fits that
archetype. Yeah, I just took a six running
back build in best Bowl Mania with Gibbs in the third round.
Like that's how I build with him usually.
Not to reopen the can of worms, the one case for Andrews Reach
is what Pat was saying about Lamar's ADP.
Well, don't. Right.
Yeah I I want this can of worms open like I I like Andrews on
the 2nd is a like OK Andrews was what like a late first round
pick last year. He's like they they're talking
about taking Lamar Jackson back to the Louisville offense having
him having spread out the defense like throwing way more.
We've for years were like. Man, if Lamar just like had
enough pass attempts, he'd be at, he'd be at such a smash,
it's like he might he might get them this year like and I and
that also feels like a drum beat situation.
You know, maybe maybe Andrews right now could be available to
some Cup drafters, but he could easily become the one O 9.
Yeah, easily. I'm just, I'm just saying based
on ADP, there's a lot of teams probably who are able to get
Mark Andrews from the middle of the board and then have Lamar
now and slip a couple spots and get him in the middle of the.
Board now, but I'm saying like there's, I don't know that this
has been internalized by the market that especially in a
tight end premium format that like the Ravens, all indications
are that they are planning to throw a lot more this year and
be more aggressive and like literally moving from a guy
who's like describing his. Offense is like a Stone Age
offense to a guy who's like we want to spread out defenses and
attack them, but you still have an issue of how many of those
dropbacks turn into scrambles and turn to non pass attempts.
Sure, but you I do. Tight end.
He's the number one receiver on his team.
Yeah, he led. He led the NFL.
He led all tight ends in open score last year.
Head of Kelsey. The dude is even in tight end
premium, though my point is even in tight end premium, I wouldn't
get there to take him over the receivers we've talked about.
I don't think it's a drum. I I think I disagree with you.
I don't think he can easily be the 109.
I don't think he can easily go ahead of Diggs and.
He was last year, wasn't he? Wasn't he in that 110 range last
year? I don't see why he couldn't get
back there given that we'll we'll ultimately be more excited
about the Ravens this year than we were last year.
I think it's a different board is what I would argue it's a
different board at the 1-2 turn, yeah.
To me Pat like the the the and again I know we're just talking
about a few pics of ADP but the classic like reaching in our
first draft for the yeah to get the elite that feels like our
old bullshit to be where it's like I I don't know I because I
do think I do think there are gonna be some drafters and I
don't have a good I I'll admit I don't have a finger on the pulse
of how FFPC draft rooms are shaking out right now but we did
see like in main events like the room does determine does someone
want the non. Travis Kelsey tied in early and
you probably will see a decent band on Mark Andrews.
You'll see him sometimes go at the 1-2 turn and you'll probably
also see him slide to, you know, team three, you know, in some
drafts. So that's the only thing of like
do we give ourselves a chance to get him at a really insane price
versus this is what we did on pits last year if we took him at
the 1-2 turn or. Yeah, but we're not playing for
a breakout here. We're playing for Mark Andrews.
Like IF Kelsey. It doesn't repeat, you know, at
an old age this year it could be easily, it could be Mark Andrews
and no one else is worth drafting in tight end premium
until later like that. You know that could easily
happen. Andrews is a huge target for me
this year as well. I would like at 16% on my best
ball stuff on underdog like I'm drafting a lot of them in tight
end premium. I think he's pretty clear target
I've been scooping him too and I I I mean I think you make a a
strong case I'm just I land more with Pete where I think we'll
get opportunities from the 105106107 draft slots from the
1:11 to take him at 202 does feel especially in our first
draft it feels a little aggressive to me.
I I don't even think it's a bad choice.
I just think from a portfolio. Yeah, I just think this is where
he's gonna settle and it's not gonna be.
To me it's not. Pitch thing I think we did this
two years ago too and and reach for a tight end and that didn't
work either might have been even Andrews so so maybe you know it
might be our old bullshit but but I think it's a little
difference than you know paying up to get that breakout guy.
I think you're paying up to get a guy who's gonna go around this
range. Yeah, so then are there.
It seems like we're all in agreement that this first pick
is gonna be a wide receiver. And then it seems like the one
thing, the one issue we would have is if it goes.
Deckler digs a Mon raw and then we have to do a Lamb versus A.J.
Brown debate. And then in the second round,
it's kind of, it sounds like debating best available wide
receiver versus JT versus Andrews is probably those those
are the most likely decisions. Yeah, just, I mean another thing
on the Lamb thing is that they did just also add Brandon Cooks,
which I mean Grant Cooks isn't. Like a massive threat to Lamb or
anything. But like and I they'll also lost
Dalton Schalz so that maybe, you know it's not a huge difference
but it's like it's like when we look at like Lamb situation.
I'm like he has probably more target competition than last
year. Michael Gallops been getting
some good buzz two years off the ACL.
He also might be done so he might not matter at all.
But there's just like they lost Kellan Moore for scoring too
many points. Like, I'm just like, man this.
This is just not a situation. I'm it's kind of the best ball
thing you were talking about before, Ben.
Like in best ball I'm often just being like, well, fuck it, I'll
take Lamb here. I don't want to be completely
out on City. Lamb is very good.
But in like our first main event, I'm just like, yeah, like
this just gives me like a pit in my stomach when I think about,
yeah, that's how I am with the wrong Adams.
I get it. I I, I, I have counters to all
those things you just said. But I get it.
I mean, it's like, it's a tough one, but this is like cooks.
Cooks turns 30 in September. Like, I actually think his
target competition is like, it can't be called worse than last
year. I don't see how you I.
Think it's I think it's more talented than last year.
I mean, Dalton, Schultz is a tight end and I mean very
marginally if you're going to make that claim, very.
Marginal wide receiver? Yeah, no.
Cooks is good. But like, there's one other How?
What's that? He's an upgrade on Noah Brown.
Yeah, no, no, I know. But like I'm saying, it's still
not enough to stop Lamb. If Lamb is good enough to be a
111 type player, it's still not good enough for him to
consolidate. Cooks can solve a good year as a
#2. You need like multiple other
players to really start talking about target competition from a
true alpha, is what I'm saying. It's not any worse this year
than it was last year. There's not enough like Cooks.
Yeah, it's good. I'm not saying Cooks is bad.
It seems like with it, we will like what we can probably meet
in the middle on it. I think we all like Amman, Ross
and Brown, and we all like Garrett Wilson a lot, right?
Yeah, we're doing Garrett, Pat. This is interesting.
I didn't realize we were. This I like Garrett.
I like Garrett. OK Yeah.
Garrett and Amman Rah both feel like they're probably sort of
mid second round values to me like and PPR.
I would say Amman Rah feels pretty nice as like a.
More like an early 2nd. You're like locked and loaded
PPR weapon. But it's like, I'm not.
I'm not sure like who else jumps out is like, oh, I have to take
these guys instead. So I'm kind of more comfortable
with them. But like to me, to me, like
taking Garrett Wilson over a J Brown doesn't make a ton of
sense. Like a J Brown is kind of like
what we're hoping that they're different types of players.
But it's like you're hoping Garrett Wilson can emerge is
like a true alpha. It's like.
Well, you already have a true alpha and a J Brown who's on an
elite off. But Garrett Wilson can
consolidate the target share in a way that a J Brown's not going
to be able to. With Devonta Smith and Goddard
Garrett, Wilson has far less target competition and I think a
J Brown also is a downfield weapon.
Like when you look at what he's going to be able to do with his
targets. Also he's an after the catch
superstar. So yeah, his target share is
probably in ceiling outcomes is not as high as Garrett Wilson's,
I'll give you that. But.
I'm not gonna argue against Brown, but my case for Wilson
would be if you're thinking about storylines that define the
season, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady to the box type Fu season with
The Jets and Garrett Wilson coming along as the number one
is a storyline that I can go into December and look back and
be like Garrett Wilson had the like the Devonte Adams breakout
year or the. Jordy Nelson, breakout year or
all, you know these. Maybe Rogers is completely dust.
But like part of it for me is like, we know that the NFL is
chaotic. We know that there's storylines
in 2023 that are going to define the season, that we're going to
be tough to predict. That's one for me.
That's like I can see a ceiling path that is like unprojectable
by what we've already seen in the in the past data for Garrett
Wilson. Sometimes we're wrong on those.
Absolutely. But I'm not like I I like to
take those swings. Yeah.
I think the only other last thing to kind of put a bow on it
of thinking through our structures and again maybe a
feather in the Andrews cap is there is a chance based on like
where the ADP is from the back here that you get funneled to
both A0RB and a punt tight end build.
And so that's something to kind of think through.
If we're okay with that, because my guess is, if we review the
board, that a lot of the sweet 0RB targets are also going to be
where you're wanting to load up on all those cranking purple
tight end targets as well. Yeah, I would.
I would note that Lamar Jackson is on the 3/4 turn and I think
it's a pretty interesting pick. Even if we don't go Andrews and
we're kind of in a situation elite quarterback wise like we
are at tight end where we're not going to get one of the top
three at quarterback. If we don't take in Lamar
Jackson then then Burrow goes at the end of the fourth fields and
Herbert go kind of mid to late 5th.
So maybe we could get a falling fields.
I also like Herbert, but I think he sort of a he's not Lamar in
terms of what up the upside he provides and then at that point
you're down to like Beshawn Watson goes mid 8th.
So we could pretty easily get him in the early 8th if we
wanted to go that route, but you're kind of all ready to.
What, what other as I think through like reverse engineering
the draft and the structure to it to your guys point of being
like OK, maybe guys like Garrett Wilson and stuff are slightly
overvalued. I mean, if we truly are still
getting these prices on guys like JSN and Addison, yeah.
Might not exist later in draft season.
I do wonder if that pushes us toward a non wide receiver pick.
Around to being like we do have legitimate it's an 8-9 that we
like. 7-8 and I and I think 7-8 looks really appealing. 910 less
so. What I was just gonna say, and I
think Pat was sort of doing it by going through the different
plays is the the drafting landscape we're in.
I would argue makes it possible to hit to pivot to an anchor.
We just talked through the tight end thing where like I would be
comfortable reaching at the 3-4 turn on our favorite tight end.
That's going a little bit later in the 4th and 5th like it pits.
It might be way too high for you guys, but more so at running
back for you, OK? You guys are talking through
QBs, but more so at running back.
I think there are options through the entire dead zone.
With the way it lays out this year, you have like.
I'm really comfortable. We talked about Gibbs or ETN as
potential options at 3-4. I'm really comfortable with JK
Dobbins. If somehow he were to fall to
5-6, he's going like in the earlier 5th.
DeAndre Swift is a six round pick right now that I'm really
willing to take some exposure to.
So that I think there are. And then you were Pat was
talking through some quarterback plays.
I think there are ways you can play tight end as well.
So I think there are. I agree with you, Pete.
Where you're looking back at that 7-8 range, you're going to
man, if we're really going to want to take receivers there, we
might wind up taking eight straight receivers to start.
But I do think there are ways to play the dead zone this year
that in the past we we we basically wanted to be receiver
only in four or five, six. But this year, I think there's
ways to play every other position, four or five, six and
throughout those rounds that I guess I don't want it to
necessarily be the deciding factor in our round 1-2 picks
because we don't know what we're going to like at 3-4 and five.
Six is sort of the counter to that though is like what if I
told you from the three, you know from the 11:00 we went
Keenan third, Debo 4th, we went Deontay 5th, Mike Williams 6th
or Brandon IU 6th, Jackson Smith and Jigba and Jordan Addison or
something like that like or Quinton Johnston, right.
Like that would be that's I'm very comfortable going wide
receiver from round three through round eight like those,
yeah. While there are potential
detours throughout like the wide receivers that we're potentially
looking at is 7/8. I think it's in particular that
7-8 term that you're looking at. Dotson, JSN Jordan, Addison,
yeah. Quinton Johnson.
Like, holy shit. Like that's.
Not to mention. There there's a more of a dead
zone in a DP on FFPC then there is on Underdog because if you
look at these names, Montgomery Cook, James Connor Swift, Piers
Rashad White, they go so much closer to the Charbonne P Ryan A
J Dillon range on Underdog than they do here.
Like this is a meaningful 3 round gap between them where I
don't see a huge difference between some of these backs and
the backs going in the ninth round.
So like this is like the kind of the running back area I think I
would mostly want to be avoiding this round 6.
Early six, Yeah, that's fair. I mean, other than like DeAndre
Swift, I can make pretty good cases against.
Everyone for all the names, Pat said.
And looking at this board, the one name like Mike Williams at
602 wasn't very compelling to me.
Most of the six round I you maybe.
That's pretty compelling to me. I tell you I'll take him in mid
4th, I don't mind. That the other thing is this
tier of wide receivers is so flat that if you take two guys
from round seven and round six, you know what I mean?
Like if you bump up around seven guy to.
Six, so you can get both Jahan Dodson and Trailing Burks or
whatever. Like I don't.
That's not bad. Yeah.
Also, I mean, I don't know. We could be looking at.
I know you guys like God when we could look at like God when
Deonta Terry Mclaurin could fall.
Like I don't like that's pretty. I think we're gonna like our
wide receivers 5678. Unless this is a weird room.
I agree. So there's there's four wide
receivers pretty easily right there.
There are still some guys. Again like the DeAndre Swift
where I think you can make some 2V twos and you wouldn't mind
not picking one of those receivers the the the list of
receivers you named was good. But like unless Keenan or Debo
has a true elite ceiling, I don't think they were you know
as comparable to the one, two turn guys as we like like to get
that elite wide receiver. And I'm not saying we go, we go
non wide receiver, non wide receiver.
I'm saying we go 1 detour in these first two rounds because
you know, we could easily rip off 7 wide receivers after that.
Because if we were looking, if we like the wide receivers in
the eighth round, I mean getting to the eighth round was 6 wide
receivers we like and then two detours for either an anchor
running back, a tight elite tight end or an elite
quarterback like that, that sets up pretty well.
But do we have a detour that makes?
And that's a lot of reverse engineering to be.
We have to be pretty certain in our detour.
We talked through the entries and JT stuff and they're going a
lot later. You can pair them with like cup
and and tight reek in some draft slots.
Unless we want to go there with those guys, what detour are we
even making? I mean, I think.
I think what I see happening is like say you do the JT versus
Mark Andrews decision point. Like I do think if you go Mark
Andrews you're looking at a 0 RB build.
If you go JT, you're looking at a punt Tied in build most
likely. See, I I think there's a lot of
options at running back and tight end. 3 rounds 3 through 6
I actually I don't want to reach for those guys.
If we have a chance to reach like 3 picks on Andrews, who I
think is going to move up, then why would like we're That to me
feels like the thing where we're like making a team out of
players that will get a better prices later.
Like I don't think that Pitts, Kitts.
Is going to move up pits. Is going to move pitch.
Will move up some, but he's but he's not in the.
Where is he? We don't need to take, we don't
need to take pits. That wasn't like sort of the
this is going at the 4:12, so I liked the.
The track we were on where this would be more of a punt, tight
end Pete Pete mentioned earlier, I liked that idea.
I think we could still get a running back like a Gibbs at the
3-4 if that happens or a couple other options that we were
looking at there. But I'm thinking like we could
get, let's say we went in or let's say we sorry, let's say we
went Taylor. We could be looking at like I
don't know, let's say digs falls just to us just to make things
simple, right, Digs and then Taylor.
And then we could go wide receiver, wide receiver and then
we could get like a Herbert paired with Keenan or Fields if
he falls and there's our two detours.
And then we go wide receiver through eight and then we come
back and circle and you know crank it purple through some of
the double digit rounds in addition to going running back.
The other thing that is different this year and we've
been talking about it on underdog too like looking at the
tight end options throughout the draft board.
Like I remember in previous years like I mean we were taking
some like true true like Jordan Aiken's level dust balls that
tight end like when you get squeezed I'd have a be like MM
get sick. He's going in 13.
Jelani Woods and Ferguson are going in 16.
Michael Mayer is going in 17. Dawson Knox and 18.
Taysom Hill and 32. I know that's the best ball
thing. Hunter Henry we all like is is
in the last round, going in the 20th.
Round so undrafted sometimes too like it is nice.
I think the the tight end options, there's going to be
tight end options throughout the whole draft.
I think that's true of like every position where things are
a little bit more balanced. I think the Like Adp's got more
efficient. CEH goes off the board in the
15th round. I mean, the running back stuff
dries up really like the last five rounds are not pretty for
running backs. Whereas I can make cases for
tight ends in the last five. Rounds I I meant, yeah, that
that's fair. That's different than underdog.
I just meant in the 2023 drafting environment that we're
moving towards more efficient. And I do think it means that you
can throw structure out the window a little bit more for
player selections. I mean, I I I know that sounds
kind of odd, but that that's like a broad take that I'm
considering this, this ADP doesn't feel that different to
me than older ADP. This isn't, this isn't underdog.
Like if you're getting Jackson Smith and Jacob the seven eighth
turn, like this is not, this is exploitable.
Yeah, that's, Yeah. That's I agree with that.
I I do have to to get going. We did why we were talking.
The Austin Eckler pick did come in, so that was expected and now
we'll see here. And I should also mention this
is you know, a dynamic here. I recognize a few names in here,
but we do have one of our ship chasers out of the 10 slot.
Slime Season is Ryan from the Discord.
So, you know, we might be able to to profile him a little bit
and he's gonna be able to profile us a little bit, so.
The one thing I'm sorry to cut you off cuz I made closing is
that it really it's Qb's Going higher path than my argument
would be is yes, I agree with you, the wide receivers are
still, but there's like better tight end profiles later.
There's better running back profiles later as well and it's
all because the Qb's are there's seven Qb's going the 1st 5
rounds. I don't like the late running
back profiles that much. I mean there's certainly targets
but I guess I would I think a hero running back start was
probably going to work better for us in this ADP environment
then sure then not right if we're if we're only if we're
punting one of tight end or running back.
I think the full punt of tight end probably works better, even
though I like Andrews more than I like Taylor in tight end.
Premium I think, but I but I still think Taylor might help us
more. I I think cranking Purple might
not. This might be the most viable
it's ever been in the years we played on FFPC.
Like full stop. Like the fact that you could
literally go around 15 through 20 and take five tight ends that
all have like a glimmer of hope, either projectable role and
upside profile correlation with your quarterback.
Like I I do think we're we're going to have some really nice
punt tied in builds we like. Yeah.
And also I think maybe those tight ends might as a group move
up and it might become more difficult to crank purple you
know like Dawson Knox for example.
Like what if we do reports that like no Dawson Knox is still
like playing like like he did last year basically.
It's just that they're also sometimes mixing in this rookie
I feel like we're you should be making round penny premium.
Every, every, like exploitable opportunity you think is out
there you think is gonna disappear immediately.
Like broadly you're like, oh, this is going away, this is
going away. Well, it's.
I mean, shouldn't you shouldn't you assume that that that a big
edge isn't gonna just sit there for you forever and you should
take advantage of them now? Maybe.
Yeah, but like, I don't know, hasn't, haven't you guys all
been talking about like oh JSN is so cheap on DraftKings and
like that hasn't changed, right? Like the the I never said JSN
will get more expensive on DraftKings.
I don't don't forward. No, I'm just saying it is.
It is hard to know. And all we can do is really use
like the information that we have now and there's so few main
events that have even been completed that it is kind of
hard to know. But let's let's power this down.
We will, we will next time we touch base, we'll probably be
when we're on the 3/4 turn and we will kind of then recap these
decisions we did end up making here at the 1-2 turn.
If you guys are listening to the audio version, you want to see
the video of this with the screen share and get earlier
access to these. You become a YouTube member and
also hop in the Discord. But yeah, this is the mini Sold
series. We're off to the race as we call
the mini sold series of. This one's clocking it at almost
55 minutes, which is a little bit of a DP chasing rubbing off
on us I guess. But it feels great to be back
guys. We will let you know how this
this team materializes here soon.
We'll catch you at the next bit.