Hello everyone, and welcome to a special June 3rd edition of ADP
Chasing. We're back this week after a
brief hiatus. We'll be talking through rising
prices on Texans wide receivers, camp hype on Jameson Williams
and Rashad Bateman, really an all time what could go wrong
moment and whether the market is correct to be panicking on Kyron
Williams. We'll be breaking it down all
here. Let's go.
ADP chasing is for when you watch ship chasing you go these
guys are just football guys. And the targets for outrun
leagues, that's going to be really nice, actually.
Back in if it's Ashenette. Ball, close your eyes.
You know all your entries are going to lose anyway.
That's fair. This is a Deus von show.
It's anti cabal. It's anti the best ball thought
leader. I'm obviously lying to some
degree because like I have a lot of both of these guys.
It's. The most disgusting thing you
can make. But man, Pat Davis, it's good to
be back. How you guys doing?
Grand. Yeah, I'm, I did have a moment
of panic this morning when I saw the best ball Mania was 17%
full. And I think I've only drafted 18
teams. I, I, I'm worried that I might
have to start drafting a little bit more in the flagship
contest, not on DraftKings. DraftKings is gonna be fine.
But you know, there there's definitely a chance that these
sickos fill best ball Mania like two weeks before the season
actually starts. They're gonna.
They're gonna, they're gonna be. I mean, we know, Underdog said.
We could have made it bigger, but we have some other stuff we
want to do. Well, that's cool, and they're
doing some other stuff and it's very fun.
But if you don't make it bigger, we're just going to fill it
sooner. That's how this goes.
Like, and I just can't. I mean, Can you imagine the
nightmare of drafting 148 best ball mania, five teams?
You're just like, you're like, no, 151.
The 150 would have been a cactus.
Yeah. No, no.
You want to know something else fucked up?
They never sent me the cactus from two years ago.
I've yet to get a cactus, one because I had a draft cancelled
the like the day before it closed when I was in Vegas and I
couldn't do it, and then the other the next year, the cactus
was sent to an old apartment that I used to live in in New
York. Yeah, I just don't.
Think that was my fault? They just never sent it to me.
What a bummer. I I still have mine, it's still,
it's still kicking too. That's actually actually some
swag that my wife would appreciate.
As opposed to all these God awful T-shirts that fantasy
companies send you. Or like the DraftKings suitcase,
you know, like I need, I need these companies to be giving me,
you know, very minuscule rake back that my wife will at least
appreciate. It was funny, I was like in
between I was moving to school, I think when I got my cactus
this past year. So I had it shipped to my
parents address and my mom's like, oh, what is what is this
for? Is this for like winning a
tournament or something? I'm like, yeah, yeah, close.
To definitely, yeah, yeah. It's definitely for winning,
Yeah, pretty much. You won.
You won a contest. So yeah, anyway, since we've
been gone, I'm curious before we get into risers and fallers,
have you guys been approaching these new contests with the the
Sprint and the marathon 2 like completely different types of
tournaments from what we've had with underdog so far.
So I'm curious, are you, you guys have preference for one
over the other? You, you messed around with the
revolver. I'm curious how you guys have
been approaching those. Conceptually, I like the Sprint
a lot. It's just another time element
to layer on top. And the price point is like not
great for if you want to Max it, which I think I mean, you
probably don't want to like you probably do want to Max it to
approach it in a portfolio sense.
Maybe not Max it, but you want to have a fair number of
entries. And it's like, you know, I, I'm
going to Max all the flagship contests on these sites and I'm
going to, every time they release a single entry thing on
underdog, I'm going to Max that too.
And then I'm probably going to Max one of the puppies at some
point. And I got main events and it's
like, so how much money do I really want to be dedicating to
fantasy football in a, in a given year?
Like probably not more that much more than like $10,000, you
know, So it's like, I don't know, I, I, I am really kind of
undecided. I think the sprint's more
interesting for sure, because so Sacrilegious had an article out
this morning on Legendary Upside where he noted that the Sprint
actually really kind of brings in some of these diversification
principles that he's been writing about in a big way.
Because whereas in Best Ball Mania, right, you don't want to
have like really identical teams 'cause there's a chance they
both make Week 17 and you basically have one path in that
path. In that path, you're probably
winning first and 2nd. And it's like, that's not really
how these prize structures work. Doesn't really make sense to
play for that kind of outcome in the Sprint that kind of like
probably not gonna happen. And outcome is what is
happening. If those teams advance, they
compete against each other for the final three weeks.
Yeah, if you if you nut out in the regular season in the Sprint
and you just have like 15 in the same team, you're you're just
competing against your own EV. You've just just burned a ton of
your own EV. It makes no sense to do it that
way. And he was actually using some
examples of starts where like he's already like 5 picks and
he's only sharing a couple picks at that point.
And he's already breaking ties against teams he's built.
Because of how stacking and you know, correlation is really
important, you pretty quickly end up consolidating onto fairly
similar rosters, fairly similar cores where you know, you're
maybe you have different 15161718 round picks, but like
they're kind of probably counting on the same players in
the final three weeks. And so I think that that creates
an interesting strategy element that I hadn't really thought
through and it's not something you really need to think through
so much in the main event. Like in the main event, everyone
knows which is you know this structure is very similar to
FFPC main event, but everyone knows that your team is not
actually going to be the team that makes the three-week
playoff Sprint in that format because of waivers right and
because. Of so, so much, yeah, so.
Much so. And you have the potential to
pull the lever like when go Bills, when those guys won, they
they specifically pulled leverage levers where they're
like we're starting Zay Jones this week and now we're going to
bench Zay Jones, which no one who else has Zay Jones will have
the balls to do. We're going to do that.
Obviously, that's not how best ball works.
So you can't kind of manually create leverage.
And so you have to, I think think through just being careful
about kind of scooping your own EV a little bit, which me and I
can be more interested in playing it.
Actually I'm like, oh, there's a strategy element that I can, I
can. I've never.
My brain has never gotten big enough to get to the example in
the Sprint where you bench the guy who just went who just
scored 35. My it's my it's.
Me neither, man. You're you're who you're.
Like that, that level of expansion.
I like to think of myself as a pretty open minded Galaxy brain
style guy, But that is just I, I mean, that is amazing.
I mean, crack rock basically did it right.
He he just benched Amari Cooper for the 60 burger.
I just said it's fine. Yeah, but that's interesting.
I, I wasn't thinking about the diversification point, but it
makes a lot of sense for the Sprint.
Cause I've heard you guys talk a lot about legendary upside, like
the importance of diversification even for
Bestball Mania. And I certainly agree that it's
important. But I've always had the thought
in the in the back of my head, like even if I draft the
identical same team, like there's a chance in Bestball
Mania, right? That like one of those teams
just gets knocked out in week 15 cause of potluck and the other
one doesn't, right. So like, it it, it certainly
matters, but there's a chance that it just doesn't the
mattering. But and this that is, yeah, go
ahead. Sorry, that's actually a so that
is a take counterpoint, which I think is actually an interesting
thing to think through with diversification.
In order for that to be true, you would really need to have
the nuts. Like if you're saying I have the
nuts and I want the nuts twice so that maybe the nuts gets
through to week 17 and one pod, not the other, that's but you're
saying you have the nuts implicitly.
And that is actually about how confident are you that any one
of your teams is the nuts. And if you feel that confident,
then yeah, OK, make a couple copies.
But it's really about you are extremely confident from a
portfolio creation standpoint. Any two of your random teams
being identical is not Yeah. Yeah.
Like I agree with that. I was just saying like in
comparison to the Sprint, like I think you could at least make an
argument in Bestball Mania for making like copies or close to
copies, like if you're really confident your player takes.
But in the Sprint, there's almost no argument for it in my
opinion, because you're you're guaranteed to have both those
teams all the way to week 17 in the Sprint if they advance,
right? So that that's the point I'm
saying is, is I agree with you that diversification, not
building very similar teams is like even more powerful, I think
in the Sprint, which is I believe the point you're making
originally. I, I, I like to, I like to think
about this for the Sprint, which is that you really, I mean,
you're just gonna have to have the three-week nuts.
I mean, there are a lot of reasons for that.
But a great explanatory variable for that would be there were
there were pods in week 16 last year that straight up did not
have Amari Cooper or George Pickens, Not like neither of
them. Like not only, not only were
there teams without one of them, there were, there were just pods
that did not feature an Amari Cooper and George Pickens team
period, Which is, I mean, that's in it's insane.
But that's it's just, you know, the, the, the law of large
numbers, I guess. Yeah.
And it's just it's so much dependent on.
That's not I think it's even large numbers that's.
That's not bad at all. I I want to I want to risk the
math from the. We'll edit.
We'll edit that out. Good thing this isn't isn't live
or anything, but yeah, the same thing happened with Mike Evans,
right? The year that you won Crane,
like he had an absolute blow up game and it didn't matter
because what, three people had him or something like 'cause he
was a. Second round pick, he was
actually on the team that I built, went ahead of my second
round pick. He went in the early second
round in that draft and he was a very, very poor advance rate
player and didn't do anything in the playoffs up to that point.
So yeah, I think there were like 3-3 people in there.
So you didn't need Mike Evans. I think on some of the other
tournaments people are winning without Mike Evans.
But yeah, you'll you'll need Mike Evans I think, right, Maybe
or maybe not. What do you need?
Mike Evans more or less because it is a It's a bigger pool of.
Well, but the the score of one week, the impact of one week is
minimized. Right.
So in in fact, you would maybe, maybe need Mike Evans less, but
the Amari Cooper, Yeah, but the Amari.
Cooper you would not have. You would not have been able to
win without Pickens and Cooper, but you could have, you could
have survived any player who just got 35 once.
So you couldn't you you would have been fine for for any
player that did that once, but you could not have survived what
Cooper went. Cooper was 60 and Pickens was
61, and both of them had good weeks.
In week 15 I think Cooper didn't even play.
In week 7. Cooper didn't play in Week 17,
which is so funny in retrospect, right?
I mean, it's just so funny. Yeah, the is this is this the
ultimate elite tight end format where you get that spike week
because you have like the whole thing with elite tight end is
like. I think I think the I think the
marathon I I think any, I think any contest that's just
cumulative, like the drafters contest, I think that's the
ultimate elite tight end because you were just gonna there are a
lot of weeks where 13 might be good for tight end one and 13
points doesn't matter that much. And you know, if you if you
like, for example, every Mark Andrews and Noah Fant team, how
much does that outscore a Jake Ferguson, Juwan Johnson,
Zachertz team by like, I don't know, probably quite a bit.
Well, but the elite tight end doesn't have great advance
rates. So just over the course of a 14
week season you can kind of make up for some of the elite tight
end production with with cheap tight ends.
But it's that in the playoffs, elite one elite tight end is
probably going to go nuts one week.
And like we saw last year at Laporta, right, it wasn't an
elite tight end. It was a late round tight end
who went nuts. But so it it doesn't always have
to be the elites, but generally we're pretty good at pricing the
tight ends. And so the bet is I'm going to
one of these guys in the early rounds is pretty likely to blow
up. And we saw a couple years ago,
Mark Andrews had insane he was insane chalk.
It was three years ago now. He was insane chalk in the
final, then doesn't do anything in the final.
You can win without Marc Andrews, but I don't know if
you're winning without Marc Andrews in a three-week Sprint
that year he went nuts for two weeks.
I think he went nuts one week and then another good week.
I've got a I've got a thought. You're gonna need him.
I've got a thought experiment for you.
At what, at what advance rate does a player actually become a
guy you wish he wouldn't have taken because they are going to
be so ubiquitous in the elimination rounds, right?
So like I think Josh Jacobs from two years ago is a pretty good
example where what he he was like something like a 55%
advance rate or something. And he was just so common that
and I and I actually think he he ended up doing shitty in the
playoffs, right. So he didn't end up making it,
But there there definitely is an inflection point of a guy is so
owned in the elimination rounds that even though he would have
advanced your teams, you definitely would not have wanted
to make him a core part of your strategy.
I think. I mean again, I'm just vibing
here so that could be wrong. I, I see what you're I, I think
The thing is though, it's like so hard, like I still know how
actionable that even if it is true, right, that there is a
certain point at which the really high advance rate player,
you don't want to have them. It's like, how do we control for
that one? I mean, yeah, there's there's no
way to do so the way we're playing the game.
It's just a thought. Exactly.
Literally just. Yeah.
My other thought too is that like the guys never really get
that highly owned in these type of tournaments compared to like
ADFS weekly tournament. Well, it will in the Sprint, so
there will be in the in the Sprint.
But what's the highest even? In the BBM final, it's it's
still pretty high. I mean, you might have like 40%
or something. So.
So you must Sprint. There will be I bet.
If I had to bet, I'd set the line at 4 1/2 players above 40%.
Probably something like that. Yeah, I guess I'd I have to go
look, but I mean the. You're basically saying the 40%
who had the highest advance rate 'cause you're saying there's
going to be someone with a 40% advance rate.
Yeah, that's. What I'm saying so highest
regulatory? Advance rates aren't that high,
are they? Puka, Kyron, Jacobs, Kelsey are
all guys off the top of my head. I remember I.
Think you still want puka and kyron though.
Like those late round picks are so valuable.
Yeah, it's it. It would.
The Jacobs example is really the only corollary where it's like
this guy who's like kind of got a shitty median projection even
though he keeps crushing every week.
I think this point is more about the some of the issues of
stacking up week 16 in regular WrestleMania where like you're,
if you capture that week 16 where everyone goes off and you
have all the people, it's like, and that's how you get in.
I I tell a lot of people, maybe got in you.
Know I mean we're. In with a lot of chalk.
We're, we're 16 minutes in, so it's not far enough that, that
no one's listening. But I don't get, I, I don't even
know who plays anyone in week 16.
I do not care at all. That's not what I'm optimizing
for. I, I don't care.
Why would I care? I mean, it's not, it's not my
priority. My my priority is 17.
I agree with that. Let's let's get into the risers
and follow. Share before everyone stops
listening. Yeah, this is killing me.
This top riser is killing me. Number one here, Jalen Waddle,
he's up four spots. This is over the past two weeks,
a 15% increase in ADP from 27 to 23.
I think honestly a lot of this is probably driven by both ETR
and Legendary Upside You, Pat. Yeah, I was about to say I was
about to. Say ADP on Waddle.
We're all trying to find the guy who did this.
Yeah. So Pat, do you want to give the
case for why you're so much higher than Waddle than than the
market? Yeah, I mean, and it's not just
my case, A lot of short people are Owen Waddle.
I think it's, it's a pretty simple case of like he crushes
and basically everything you want a wide receiver to crush
in. He's very talented.
We there's like really no push back on the idea that he's very
talented. He's in an offence that produces
efficiently through the air, you know, is well designed.
He has sufficiently good quarterback play.
He really pops in a, in a lot of the stuff that we care about.
It's just that he is so, so, so clearly the number 2 to Tyreek
Hill in that offense. But Tyreek Hill isn't, you know,
insanely efficient that it's sort of like, I guess if the, if
the the ceiling can be raised that high on the number one,
give me the number two, It's fine.
And then we we have contingent value here.
Like we have legitimate contingent.
Value with this wide receipt. So you're getting like a guy who
is producing the efficiency, the per route stuff of honestly,
like a late first round pick. And then because he's the number
two, you're getting in the late second round.
And then on top of that, you have this, what if he is
actually the number, the number one by the end of the season?
You know, Tyree Kill in his final seasons on the Chiefs was
missing lots of games all the time.
So even for a couple games, if you get Waddle as like the
dolphins #1 in the Tyree kill role, I mean, it's a it's a
smash. It's it's a super smash.
I mean, Jalen was actually Jalen Waddle was actually better last
season in in the advanced stuff. So in yards per route run
targets per out run. Yeah, I knew I knew I knew Sam
would have this ready. I mean, the, the fact is, the
fact is he's just a very good player who basically just kept
getting injured at the most inopportune times last season.
He just would like roll over on his ankle.
He'd he'd, I, I remember, I remember a drive, I wanna say
this was the London game where it was a drive and he got the
wind knocked out of him in inside the red zone.
So we had to go run off to the sideline and it was another most
hurt touchdown. Like it's just, I think it's,
it's basically just completely random.
You have the guy, he actually ran more routes per game then
Tyreek Hill last year because Tyreek just always goes off to
the sideline. So you're talking about the guy
who led the most efficient passing offense in the NFL and
routes and he got less expensive.
Now you guys are obviously ETR and legendary upside are
dedicated to ruining the game because there was a brief, there
was a brief moment in time where you could just get Waddle every
time in the third round. He was going after Diggs, after
Digimore, after Malik Neighbors. He was like the wide receiver 22
for like a week. And now, I mean, I think the
market is I actually would take him ahead of Nico and of Mike
Evans. But yeah, he's he's probably
like the best pick on the board at that 2-3 turn now.
Yeah, I think I think he's a great pick at the 2-3 turn in
the comments, someone saying in the game Tariq missed last
season water was really average. That's just not true.
He had 28 PPR points in that game.
Week 15. That's Terry Gill missed.
Average, but it that's the thing you're not understanding.
Yeah, I guess the fact that that felt average to you is pretty
bullish. Yeah.
Last last two seasons that he's yeah, he's only missed one game.
Yeah, I I was, I was thinking there was more, but yeah, it was
only one. Yeah, but yeah, I, I think like
there's you look at all the advanced stats and I pulled him
up here, he's pretty consistently top 12:00-ish wide
receiver in the things that we care about here, you know, yards
for outrun, targets for outrun. If you really wanted to, maybe
you could nitpick his, his touchdown upside, but I don't
know, I, I, I think that's, that's pretty hard to.
Do back-to-back yards for outruns are like Justin
Jefferson, like that's like the level we're talking about like
CD Lamb, like the very, very best wide receivers in the
league put up numbers like this. So I you know, I understand that
like he's not maybe going to run every single route because of
the way that offense is set up. And I don't know, like, is it
maybe it's schemed and that feels a little grosser than if
it's like 100% talent related, but it's, it's largely talent
related. He's really good.
It's not, you know what Odell Beckham's yards per out run's
gonna be like 1.12. So like, don't worry, this guy's
good. Yeah, and I do think like the
supporting I I think the reason this offense has been so
concentrated is obviously a, you know, Tyree Kill and Jalen
Waddell are two of the best, you know, 10 wide receivers in the
NFL And B, the peripheral weapons around those two have
been really, really bad. I think this year they're maybe
marginally improved. Like Jonnu Smith is a better
tight end weapon than than they've had in the past.
Odell is, I don't think is anything I, I don't know, Malik
Washington is maybe something. The wide receivers there are
still pretty thin. Other than last year but like,
is he better than Gazicki Jonnu? He's he's like the same.
Yeah, maybe, maybe barely right and.
Then you really could you, you actually could argue that that
like in a way kind of helps model like just that.
It's not, it's not so much on those two guys like maybe the
per route, maybe the targets per route run goes down a little
bit, but the overall efficiency comes up to some degree or the
our drives extend or whatever. I mean the really, and I I mean
this totally not ironically. I mean I am worried about Tua
playing outdoors and these cold ass games.
And I, I I was gonna get to that.
And like, I've heard Karain talk about it and Karain look me in
the eyes. It's, you know, late December.
Yeah. He was going to Cleveland.
Look us in the eyes and tell us you're not.
Tell us that you're not. You're not.
Worried. I'm not worried.
I mean, just like how many years in a row do we have to see two
more years collapsed and need more before we shot the trend?
I need more years. I don't even know if it's cold
on. I mean, December 28th is going
to be colder than now, but I don't know if it's going to be
like. Alright, we're we're thinking
probabilistically though, right? Like the odds of it being cold
and shitty are much higher in Q. I've got, I've got some real,
I've got some real facts and logic for you, Crane, that
you're not going to want to hear to a Tego by LOA. 31 games, not
in December. 20.56 fantasy points per game. 12 games in
December or later in his career, 14.58 fantasy points per game.
I mean, obviously there's more to it than that, and I'm not
saying it's hard. He's going off a concussion and
some of that stuff like give me a break.
Like it's so it's December. December is the only, let's be
honest, back here we could have here.
He's from Hawaii. He just can't.
He can't play in. The world this is the this is.
The can't play in the cold. This is the Jared Goff thing.
It's like I, I don't want, I don't want to ever have Jared
Goff stuff in the the fucking frozen tundra in December.
He's got the smallest hands in the world.
He's California boy, that's. What I'm saying?
Letting it influence this is what I'll say.
We just did this and you wanted pieces from the Cleveland Jets.
Game if you if you bring up the you bring up the El Nino I'm
gonna quit I'm gonna rage quit the show we.
Literally last year, Zach Wilson's Jets playing in
Cleveland was one of the teams that you wanted pieces on
expensive pieces. Well, Zach Wilson is better in
the cold than Tua. The stats The stats the.
Stats literally don't lie. Zach Wilson is Zach Wilson is
from Utah. He is used to the cold.
Bro, give me I I will. I will just I will just say
this. I'm not letting it influence my
decision making. Yeah.
What are we? Supposed to do You're not taking
Tyreek 3I. Guess what?
What? I'm.
Still taking him, but I wanna have this take on the record.
That, too, is gonna collapse, end the season.
A totally unactionable take that you're not doing anything about,
right? Now I, I will tell you, I will
tell you. Just have it on the record.
I should have let the record show.
I'm not. I'm not.
Really taking Browns. I'm not really taking Browns
with Waddle or a chain. I'm just kind of just taking
them. But I'm not making it a point to
get Amari or and Joko or whatever on those teams.
Yeah, I mean, it just feels like every year the season starts and
we're like, oh, wow, the Dolphins are the best team in
football. They're so exciting and by Week
10, they're the worst offense. So I mean, that's so true.
Like the 70 points against the Denver Broncos literally cannot
score against the Buffalo Blues in their entire season on the
line. That Just remember that playoffs
game against the Chiefs? Do you remember how pathetic
that was? It was, it was one of the most
pathetic efforts I've ever seen from a football team.
It was so. Bad.
You have to have conviction that you just you just don't draft
Dolphins. That's how you you.
I'm just. Not drafting the Browns.
I'm just not drafting Browns. I didn't hear anything about the
Browns collapsing down the stretch.
They're from Cleveland. I think they.
Live in the cold. They can't wait till it's cold.
I'm predicting a 17 week collapse from the Deshaun
Watson. Now how I'll end up how I'll end
up being wrong about that is Deshaun Watson decides in week
five he doesn't feel like playing fakes.
A shoulder injury and Jameis Winston just I mean.
He can't take a shoulder injury again.
He can't. He's already doing it.
He's he's throwing. Every already he's already, he's
called McCoy, he's pointing, he's out there pointing it with
receivers. It's it's already very
concerning. It's, it's over.
I mean, the Browns, we can talk with about the Browns like I
know any projection will tell you that Deshaun Watson, the
Browns are all great values this year, but.
Great values. I'm just doing a vibes check on
Deshaun Watson and that guy does not want to play football
anymore and I'll I'll sure I'll take some of them, I'll take
some Amari and I'll mix them in. But like, I do not want to make
a core part of my strategy this season betting on Deshaun Watson
like he he just does. He doesn't want to play football
anymore if. I thought he had the dog in him
if I. Thought.
I if I thought the dog existed and he was like I'm going
revenge tour on everyone. They all said I was done.
They all said he does not care dude, he doesn't care.
It really feels like he doesn't care.
Yeah. Yeah, and, and, and the team
doesn't feel like they care that much about him.
They don't care that much about him.
They were happier playing with Flacco.
Yeah, yeah. I mean, it's just he's so cheap
in the upside. He's usually easy to stack.
The upside is theoretically there.
You know, it's just like, but I think you're right.
I mean, I, I don't go into any drafts being like, Oh, I gotta
get the, I gotta get the Browns and I generally am not drafting
a ton of them already, but I do find myself backed into Judy
fairly frequently. Well.
That is a that is a personal problem and I advise you, I
advise you to see your physician about that because there are
plenty of good players who are going around.
That religious has gone on strike.
He got this article out and then refused.
He's refusing to write anymore. Until I stopped drafting Judy.
He can. I mean, you could just.
You could just. Simply take dantavian Wicks bro
you could just say you know ball like these are.
Wicks is usually gone man. Wicks is moving.
Up. Yeah, I know, I know.
It's so funny. Dantavian.
I would love to take Dantavian Wicks.
He was drafted 18 picks ago. I took Dantavy and Wicks today,
hand up. I took Dantavy and Wicks today
in the 10th round. I just, I was just like
whatever. I I need a wide receiver here.
I'm not really, I'm not really that into it.
I'm just taking Dantavy and Wicks.
In which round? The tenth round.
Whoa, baby. Well, maybe I didn't even.
I think maybe I was going to take him and I got sniped.
Let's let's go to let's move to talking about Wicks here before
we get some of these other guys. He actually he's on this list
here, eighth biggest riser up like a full round.
I think if you went back farther, I think he maybe
started BBM around one 45150. So he's he's up a lot here.
I'll share this chart as we discussed this.
I think I pulled this together a few weeks ago, but this is the
five Packers wide receivers that were part of the rotation by the
end of the season. Again, Wick, the case for Wicks
is pretty simple is yards per out run, targets per out run.
Those are very strong numbers as a rookie, especially a fifth or
sixth round rookie, whatever he was.
The problem obviously is they used a heavy rotation last year.
I I guess I don't this is what we should talk about.
Like what is the Packers incentive to get away from this
rotation if all of these guys are playing well?
That's, that's the hardest part, right?
It's that's the only thing that's gonna get them there is
if one of them really separates. I think the thing that is
helping Wix the most is that we're getting they're just never
going to run Watson 70% of the routes.
It's just never going to he they just are not going to.
They're not going to plan to play their team that way because
they don't trust them to be healthy.
I've scoured every corner of the Internet for Dantavian Wicks
Bear take and I've yet to hear one.
Are am I? Am I about to get one?
Is this? Is this where you're headed,
Sam? Sam No.
No, I no. I I'm in on.
He's like oh God, please don't come to me bro.
Please Sam has made bear case against every player.
Here's the bear case. I I can't do the bear case for
Wicks. If that's what the people want,
find no one wants. It there's no.
Find me, find me one, Find me one stat that Dantavian Wicks
was better than Bow Mountain in last year.
Vibes vibes for. That's that's the bear case Bow
Mountain 2.7 yards per outrun, 29% targets per outrun.
There's now the point, the point of this take, the point of this
take is just that. What if this is just, these are
just Jordan Love stats. All these, all these stats for
for Wicks are just Jordan Love stats and they just play on that
same 50% route rate 'cause they like the other guys better.
That's it's not impossible, but at his ADP, I'm taking him, I'm
drafting him. If you want to, if you Sam, if
you really wanted to workshop a take, I mean, I'll just, I'll
just help you. I'll just help you out here.
You could do the Bo Melton was at the same Rutgers program that
hid Isaiah Pacheco from everyone.
Like literally the worst. I believe they were the the
worst team in their division. They were consistently like A2
win team. And that's where Bo Melton had
to play. So, so maybe you could go there,
but where where was he in 2022? Did he just not play?
He graduated College in 2021. He was on the Seahawks, I think.
I think he got drafted by the Seahawks and then released after
not playing at all. Yeah, he ran 77 rounds.
I think we can just sort of pretend for this conversation
that he doesn't exist. I I think the the thing that
Wicks has to do is he's got to eat the leftover Watson routes
and he's got to jump Dobbs. I do, I mean, Sam, I think in a
roundabout way you're kind of making like a Christian Watson
bull case, right? Or like or a Jaden Jaden Reed
bull case or like if one of these guys who's.
Earlier. Yeah, like if if one of the guys
who's most likely to be a starter, it just is a starter,
then they have Jordan Love potentially being very
efficient. Now maybe you're saying it's
just it's just going to be a rotation and all these guys are
going to be tricky, but which is, I think very plausible, but.
I think they're just all. Pride in the offense.
Oh yeah, I I want to be clear that I'm not anti Wix, I'm not
anti real. I want to be very clear please.
I know ball. I know ball.
But yeah, I mean, this, this is, we say this a lot, but this like
the Packers are the ultimate veteran best ball offense.
Yeah, like when it comes to that PC season, I probably won't be
taking much Wicks, to be fair. Yeah, I mean you wanna.
I say that. Retract that.
I mean, we'll, we'll figure it out.
We'll figure it out when we get there.
The the, I guess the real thing is, is that I already don't care
about Romeo Dobbs. Dubbs, like, he might as well
not exist to me. I don't know if I've ever
drafted him. I think he's like totally
whatever. And Jaden Reed kind of has the
slappy Debo like getting there on rushing production and
touchdowns type stuff. Like you could tell me that Reed
runs 50% of the routes this upcoming you like.
I would believe that Wicks leads the team in routes this up.
I really would believe that. I actually kind of think Jayden
Reid is is kind of a bad pick Again, like all these Packers
wide receivers. I want to be in on Jordan Love.
So I'm not saying it's a terrible pick, but he was
healthy last year in the playoffs.
Like he had already been back for two weeks before that.
And in the playoffs last year he had a 60% route, right?
Like I, I think when all these guys are having.
Questionable coming into the first playoff game, remember.
He I know he was banged up a bit down the stretch, but again, his
looking at this chart, his his route rate and games played this
season, and this includes one game where he left early was
63%. Like he's not a full time wide
receiver. He's targeted heavily when he's
on the field, but I don't know like give, give me like the the
under on. Jordan, he's also like 21 years
old. Like he might just be better.
He was banged up and he might just be better this year.
Yeah, I know, but that I guess that means that they're going to
bench one of Watson dubs or Wicks, right?
It's. Watson, I mean, Watson is Watson
is giving sort of this is what you do when a guy enters year
three and he just can't stay healthy and he can't
consistently be there. These are the types of guys that
like fantasy managers can't ever give up on, but real life
coaches get sick of them, which is guys who just can't be
available. And remember he had like a
couple awful drops last year too, like like skull melting,
bad drop. I think Watson and Wicks are
functionally the same player for the offense.
So like, I don't think like Reed is not.
There's no three wide receiver set that's Wicks, Dobbs and
Watson. Well, how would that?
Look well, Watson was playing a decent bit of slot getting.
Like. Getting like the handoffs and
stuff like the gimmicky. Reeds.
I guess I just wasn't imagining Watson in the slot.
Watson to me was was more They're both kind of outside
vertical guys Reid provides you with.
Like a slot? OK, All right, maybe I'm maybe
I'm not being creative. Enough.
We can't every Can't every NFL wide receiver basically play in
the slot if need be? Isn't that kind of the secret?
Yeah, sure. But Jaden Reid provides you I
think that yards after catch underneath kind of quick, you
know, quick twitch, you know, middle of the field slot guy,
right, That those guys really aren't that.
That was my point I guess. For sure, yeah.
On some stuff they can. They can bump one of the outside
guys in the slot no problem. Yeah, I, I mean, I think it's
just a confusing, like I think you can come up with tons of
different iterations of how this three wide receiver set looks.
I think in reality it is just going to be like unless one of
these guys is hurt, I think it's going to be a true four man
rotation. I think each of these wide
receivers offers something that the other can't do.
Even Romeo Dobbs, I think he gets kind of thrown under the
bus, but in the play offs last year he was clearly their best
wide receiver in those games. He plays on the outside much
more than these other guys. So again, his his targets for
route run. That type of stuff doesn't look
as good, but he's also running the hardest routes out there
compared to what Reid and Watson are doing.
So again, I I think it's just a better in basketball team.
I would want to spread my exposure to the cheaper guys,
which is Watson dubs and Wicks to me.
Are you? Taking much dubs.
Yeah, not a ton, but once I take Jordan Love, he's a priority for
me. I find it hard to take Jordan
Love 'cause he's always like kind of next to Kyler.
I don't. Take a love I.
Would just rather take Kyler. But when I take him, I think
it's fun. It's a very fun build but it's
like kind of hard for me to get to him as much as I would like.
Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I could be putting
too much weight into his playoff performance last year, but that
Cowboys game, in the first half of the 49ers game before he
completely collapsed down the stretch, Jordan Love looked
like. Here's here's here's the deal is
all the ball knowers like say the Jordan love stuff is real.
Like it's it's like the you know, obviously a comparison
would be the fulls run to the Super Bowl where everyone kind
of realized it wasn't real. But at like all like ball
knowers stat people, everyone is kind of like, yeah, Jordan love
is it's it's this is legitimate. This is real stuff to build on.
Yeah, and it's like the the ceiling projection of a of a
stack because all these wide receivers are fairly cheap.
Like if it I don't know which one of these guys is gonna be
the Best Buy weeks 15 to 17. But I have a feeling like the
ceiling projection of the love Wicks or love Watson stack at
cost is gonna be like really powerful in the playoffs
compared to what you have to pay for, say CJ Stroud and Nico
Collins, right. Like it's a huge discount to
that. And I think it could offer a
similar. You would be on my counter on on
the love stuff, would I? Didn't hear a lot of, you know,
early on in the season went like, oh, this is real, right?
Remember he was kind of running really hot.
His CPOE was terrible and then in the middle of the season he
kind of fell back down to earth a little bit.
I didn't hear a lot of like, don't worry, this guy's this
guy's really flashing. He he's going to be fine.
It's basically like he he was amazing and he looked amazing
while producing amazing down the stretch and into the playoffs
that all lines up. But there's a body of evidence
from earlier in the season that was like, not all that
impressive. And I think he might just be
kind of a streaky, you know, willing to take chances, high
upside in any given situation quarterback, which is pretty fun
for bestball. But doesn't that kind of remind
you a little bit of Trevor Lawrence?
And we're now we're taking Trevor Lawrence way after him
with a potentially much more concentrated offense.
So if you wanna go, you know, if you wanna bet on this.
I I do take a lot of Trevor Lawrence.
Yeah, I'm taking a lot of Trevor Lawrence.
Yeah, 'cause this. Is if you can't tell, I have a
lot of Trevor. Lawrence well, because, and it's
so easy to backstop because you it's like, oh shit, I don't have
a court. I don't have a stack set up.
Let me take Brian Thomas, Junior or Ingram, and then I'll take
Lawrence and then I can bail myself.
Out. Yeah, you can.
Yeah. Kirk Ingram and Brian Thomas.
I don't take a ton of Gabe Davis.
I think he's mostly going to just kind of help keep safeties
a little deeper. Now I think you want to be in
true Jaccard tree SIM score. You want to be mixing him in
with Trevor Lawrence because you don't.
You don't want to be. Dude, I drafted 22% Trevor
Lawrence and I got him out of week 17 and Gabe Davis had three
targets, 3 touchdowns like you. That's a good point.
You, you do not want to live that reality.
I don't. I don't.
And it and I saw it when you said it, I saw it.
Yeah, so it's a. That's a good point, and we all
know it. But his path to killing you is
also pretty evident. Yeah, yeah.
I mean, if you I'm with you,
like if you compare any team to the Jaguars, it might be doesn't
look as good because I'm also all in on the Jaguars.
But yeah, it just, it's, it seems to me like, I guess the
counter to your counter, Pat, is that you could, if you're being
generous, like effectively interpret Jordan Love's season
last year, like as his rookie year.
The first time he got a chance to play with all the starters in
the preseason. The first time he was the guy
and he had a bit of a slow start.
But honestly, like people are saying he was terrible to start
the season. Like I think, yeah.
He was good. The Yeah, it was just that the,
some of the underlying metrics were really bad.
Sure. And so it was like, this isn't
going to last. And then it didn't last.
And then I think kind of obviously in retrospect, we all
got, you know, carried away with that confirmation bias of, see,
this guy sucks. He he consecutive weeks they
lost to the Raiders, the Broncos and the Vikings and people were
like it's jover. It's jover for it's like lol
Packers bro should have kept he. Told this is coming this is yeah
this he was running hot. Everyone knew it and that this
is the real love and he sucks, which obviously, and it's
probably the most wrong of all of these stuff of windows that
we were in. But I don't know, I just I'm
like, I don't I don't want to throw out everything that
happened before the end of last season entirely.
And I guess we're not, but it's, I feel like every day we get a
little closer to doing that. Yeah.
Really, really wanted to say that's fair there, but I didn't.
Let's move on to it's. All that's better or worse.
Let's move on to talking about the Texans.
Both Tank Dell and Nico Collins are up.
Not a ton by raw ADP, but pretty big as a percentage.
Tank Dell's moved close to that 3-4 turn now going at pick 39.
Nico's sneaking farther up into the first or sorry into the
second round going at pick 21. Davis, what are what are your
Texans takes your tank Dell your Nico, your Stefon Deggs.
How are you? How are you treating?
These guys, I'm not that into taking these guys.
I know they're fine, but I just like how can I justify taking
quarterback 6 CJ Stroud I I truthfully really can't like I
just I prefer Mahomes. I prefer Richardson like roster
like construction wise, Mahomes and Lamar are just way better to
me. I prefer elite tight end to
elite quarterback. And this is such an UN you you
really have to think about this because what happens when you
get like, like with Stroud, there is no backdoor wide
receiver to take. Like, what do you do?
No Brown. No Brown and CJ Stroud.
Yeah. But it's like, what am I?
I'm winning $1,000,000 with Steve Dalton Schultz.
Probably not. I think the market is starting
to order these guys correctly because I do think Diggs is just
not really that good of a pick, but it's kind of like a
heuristic thing where it's like, so I'm not that in to Stroud.
So even if my individual rankings of Nikko and Tank are
close to the market, which they are, what's the point?
Because if I'm wrong? Because if I'm, if I'm wrong
about Stroud and I'm right about Nikko, then I, we get to the
final and Nikko is how I mean, what is the Nikko tank Stroud
correlation going to be for these teams that make the
finals? Like it's going to be super
high. Yeah.
But I think even if you're out on Stroud, like Stroud's
expensive and you can use that to your advantage where maybe
Stroud has a great season, Nico has a great season, and then
you've got a different quarterback hitting your lineup.
Like there's enough quarterback upside later where you can you
know, like a Jayden Daniels, sure you know, Hertz is
sometimes fall into late forth you you can get him kind of back
you're. Totally right.
I guess my question to you both would be what, what is your math
based feeling about having these guys naked versus with Stroud
like in in the week that matters like what do you prefer and if
you're not that in, if you're not that portfolio aligned with
Stroud, what does it make sense to do with those guys?
So I think I, I, I'm not really targeting Stroud 'cause I think
I agree with you, Davis, that he's probably a little
overpriced. But at the same time, I'm
totally fine with having these guys naked because Stroud's a
pocket passer. I think you get a ton of the
value when you take, say, Nico and Diggs or Nico and yeah, you
can capture a huge percentage and then say take, I don't know,
Jaden Daniels later, someone like that, right?
I think you can capture a huge percentage of it.
I mean, I mean Stroud like he's basically, you know, Kurt
Cousins to in terms of his rushing production, Like he,
even though he is a good athlete, he offered almost
nothing through the ground last year.
So I think it's a totally viable strategy to have one of these
guys and not have have Stroud. So I'm not too worried about the
Stroud part of it. And I will I will still
occasionally take Stroud just for the stack.
Like, I kind of think it's like Joe Burrow and past seasons
where it's like, yeah. That's that's exactly what it is
to me. And I never really took Burrow
because you also couldn't backdoor him there.
There was not. There was never a a a guy to
take after. Yeah.
Yeah, but so you're, if you're taking Nico, right, you're
sending some, first of all, you're sending someone else up
potentially to have naked Stroud, right.
The worst thing you can do in all of this is have naked
Stroud. Stroud, Bateman, likely Schultz,
Noah Brown $1.5 million that. That what what do you win when
you win like 25th place in BBM five what will you win?
That's a bunch of Stroud stacks ahead of.
You, you, you, you just, you show up, you're so excited to go
through and check all your advancing teams and you find
your, your CJ Stroud, Dalton Schultz, Noah Brown team and
you're like, God damn it. He's so pissed.
That's the team that got through and it's like Nico and Diggs are
all like like go, they're going nuts.
You're like if he throws 4 touchdowns to Schultz online
like. It's like, I really need this to
be a big Jawar Jordan game then. Yeah, so don't.
That's not what I want. But because that's not
appealing, Stroud sometimes falls to the 6th.
So, you know, you can get, it does it's easier to get Stroud
in the 6th of you off Dell, Right?
He doesn't tend to come all the way back so often, but he
sometimes will. And the more likely thing is
that you can get Lamar. This morning with Pete.
We got Lamar in the 5th. We went.
Yeah, that's so I don't even think we had Nico.
We had Debo, but then we got Andrews in the 4th and then
Lamar in the 5th. But if that's like Nico Andrews
Debo, that's sick and that's available.
Yeah. And even with Lamar, like
obviously you want Andrews or Flowers if you if you have Lamar
there, but Lamar unstacked or maybe a light stack with likely
or someone late just because of how Lamar runs and scores, you
could easily want the Texans pass catchers with Lamar at
quarterback like that. Could be that's true.
That could be the move. So yeah, I like, I like that a
lot. And someone in the chat said
here I will chiming on this point like Stroud falls locked
the 60s and 70s that happens with quarterbacks, right?
Like if you take a couple of these pass catchers, push Stroud
maybe around. All the time Purdy.
You'll just see Purdy 20 spots after ADP and you're like why
would I even click this? Because what am I, what?
What am I hoping for? What's the point?
By the way, Chipsy Lark points out that that Stroud, Schultz,
Noah Brown won you to Millie. Maybe.
Well, Nico. Nico was out and Stefan Diggs
was not on the team. So those Noah Brown games last
year back-to-back just that that's when I decided I was all
in on the Texans when CJ Stroud carried Noah Brown to
back-to-back 150 plus yard performances.
I mean. Noah Brown had not had.
He did not have 100 yard game at Ohio State.
He hadn't had. He hadn't had one.
He hadn't had one since. High school?
No way. Are you kidding?
I, I, I'm don't, don't fat, don't fat.
No, I really, I really don't think I made that up.
I really don't. I need to know.
I need to know if that's real 'cause if it's real, it's the
best stat ever. Noah Brown I didn't make it up.
Yeah. Zero 100 yard game.
Had had not had 100 yard game since high school.
Didn't have one on the Cowboys either.
Probably. Maybe one, Maybe one.
Why are you trying to make me Fact Check this?
But for the Cowboys? I mean, maybe he had one.
Maybe one, but whatever. It doesn't.
No, no, no. Officially 100% confirmed had
not had OH. My.
God 100 yards since high. School dude, you guys aren't
taking Stroud. This dude hadn't had a 100 yard
game since high school until CJ Stroud stepped on the field.
Well, I remember, I remember looking that up at some point
last year and being like, no, Noel Brown was on the Cowboys.
I Noel Brown's been on the Cowboys since 2017 and this
dude's just going nuts. Do you know, do you guys know
another wide receiver that hasn't had 100 yard game since
they played with CJ Stroud? Jackson, Smith and Jigba.
Jackson Smith and Jigba hasn't had 100 yard game since he
played with CJ. Stroud people are people are
just. Saying.
I thought I thought you would. I thought you had reverse course
though. I thought you were now a JSN.
It was all the wrist injury bowl.
Yeah, I'm still trying to figure out if that's a bit or not.
Don't want to talk about it on the show but.
I'm glad to. I'm glad to know you don't even
know. Yeah, I'm not really sure on
that one. I, I, I'm torn on JSNI mean,
yeah, let's not talk about it now.
Let's just. Say, hang on.
Credit to Davis here. For who else?
Who else? Just out of the balloons because
he hadn't had 100 yard game since high school.
Is that right? I don't know.
Let's check. And it is.
That's amazing. It's true.
We all wouldn't have said it. We all wouldn't.
Have said it and then we would have been robbed of that
knowledge. Yeah, so here's the deal.
I think both of these guys are really good picks because I
couldn't be more out on Stefan Diggs is going to hate his life
by like week five. He's going to be like, they're
not throwing me the ball enough. You know, it's just like, can't
you just see in your crystal ball how this goes so poorly?
So I the I think the big debate with Diggs is in your doesn't
want to play football by week 5 leagues, do you take Watson or
Diggs first? Watson, Watson still also maybe
just take, maybe take me in that league if Derrick Henry does it
again, if Derrick Henry by Week 5, Derrick Henry has six
touchdowns, probably take me in that league because I'm not
going to want to be. Around.
You're a sleeper. You're a sleeper.
Yeah, the, the digs thing, I'm, I'm mixing him in.
I think I'll be underweight him, or at least that's my target.
I just, I, I don't know, I, I can see how this is how it goes,
right for digs, right. Tanked Al and Nico Gollins last
year, like exclusively outside players.
So they line up Nico and tank on the outside.
They have Stefan Diggs in the slot in three wide receiver sets
and Tank and Nico just draw so much coverage that Stefan Diggs
is just like APPR like a Keenan Allen esque PPR scam that I
think that's how Stefan Diggs breaks out.
I think he's lost like you look at the charting stuff for him,
he's lost a bit of the deep speed, the big playability.
I do think he's still like a sophisticated wide receiver that
can get open against zone and just, you know, if the offense
lines up this way, the defenses take away the deep ball.
It could be Stefan Diggs PPR scam season.
And then I think in two wide receiver sets because of tank
Dell's blocking, they're probably gonna have digs on the
field for two wide receiver sets too.
So that that I think that's how it works out for digs.
It's just touchdowns. He's in there near the red zone
and he's appr scam 'cause he gets the easiest coverage in the
slot. So that's why I don't want to
full fade him like I, I don't know, just full fading a Texans
wide receiver. I don't have the the the balls
to do it I guess. No, I don't.
Mind it, it's fine. It's fine, yeah.
What what is what's he really going to do?
Like you, you want to lose like a PPR scam.
Can't even really kill you on underdog.
Guys, we just talked about how CJ Straub facilitated Noah
Brown. Yeah, but Noah Brown was running
routes. No, no, Brown was running routes
down the field digs. Digs will run routes down the
field. Digs can still break a player,
too. He will run routes down the
field. I I don't like digs.
You know what a man, a man just has to believe in something and
I believe that I like Nico and tank more and I like DJ more
more than dig. So that and and well, you're
going to get and I like, I like a chain and Kyron Moore too, so.
Yeah, that's fair enough, you know.
Yeah, that seems fair. Let's move on to talking about
Jameson Williams and Rashad Bateman for some.
Reason The heart of the show, this.
Is. I have David Skip on this.
We need we just make sure we get the full.
Yeah, you guys got to, I, I got to leave.
I got to leave in like 4 minutes.
But let let me just say this, I took Rashad Bateman in the
fourth round or in the 14th round of a draft today because
Lamar and it's just, it's, it's truly the most like, what am I
even doing here? Exercise like how this doesn't
even help me. Like what, what am I really
hoping for from Rashad? I should have just skipped him.
I should I should have just let it be.
And and the Jameson Williams pick.
I mean, I got I got this great. I got this great stat that I
pulled today. First round NFL draft pick wide
receivers 1st 20 games, less than 500 receiving yards.
Santana Moss, who did rip off a great he had multiple top ten
wide receiver seasons and then two additional top 20 Four
Seasons. Jameson Williams, John Ross Zero
top 20 Four Seasons Quentin Johnston Obviously he's not
gotten to 20 games yet, but I. Think he might count him out?
Just count. Him I, I think he's not going to
get there. Charles Rodgers, zero top 20
Four Seasons. Craig Davis, zero top 20 Four
Seasons. Kevin White, Remember Kevin
White, zero top 24 wide receiver seasons and Troy Edwards, zero
top 24 wide receiver seasons. It's not a list you want to be
on. I mean, two of those names were
straight up made-up. Craig Davis and never.
Never even. I I ran the filter back to 2000,
I had never encountered Craig Davis in in a Pro Football
Reference. There's if you go back, because
I've done some stuff where you go back and look at some of
these early 2000s receivers. I don't remember.
There are these guys who like and Craig Davis might be one of
them. They'll be like came out of like
LSU the first round pick like disappeared immediately and then
like never it's. Like never he like never played.
He he had 300 yards as a rookie and then like 350 yards of
sophomore and then he was off the team and you're like, what
happened? What like what is the story?
This doesn't hap like, but I I don't know, maybe maybe people
know. And that's, I'm not saying that
was Craig Davis specifically, but there's all these guys.
Yeah. Who?
You're like what? Who was this dude?
He was a first round pick. That's gonna be Sky Moore in
like 10 years. Yeah, that'll be Sky Moore.
Yeah. Sky Moore's gonna get our.
Kids will be talking. Who was the Sky Moore guy?
Never heard of them. Maybe we'll save the meat of
this debate. Davis, are you gonna leave now?
The the. I'm gonna, I'm gonna leave.
I'm gonna leave and I'm gonna be back in like 13 minutes.
Yeah, OK. We'll hit on some some fallers
here before we get to Bateman and JMO, starting with Kyron
Williams. He's by far the biggest mover in
terms of percentage of ADP since we last talked.
He's down nearly 25% five spots to now the early third round at
pick 26. This is obviously due to a foot
injury which is keeping him out of OTAs.
He's gonna be ready for training camp according to the coaches,
which I, I believe is true. I I think that reporting is, is
probably accurate. Start with you, Pat.
Have you been ranking Kyron? Did you did you guys update him
in the rankings once the news about his foot broke or how have
you been treating this? We didn't really update him,
thought he should kind of been here or even a little lower than
this the whole time. And so I don't know, I'm
actually willing to take him in the late 3rd.
This doesn't seem particularly concerning sometimes like the
market feels like it needs additional negative like
information that reminds them of the information they should have
already cared about and weren't. And this feels like that to me.
Like this foot is probably a non issue, but I think I think
people are waking up to like, oh right, like this.
Not particularly explosive back who gets used on passing downs
but doesn't get thrown to a lot and is really pretty dependent
on locking down the touches to be worth a, you know, second
round pick might not get all the touches because they drafted
Blake Coram and they keep talking about how they like
Blake Coram. And this foot injury is a
reminder that running backs are fragile and and you know,
especially role based running backs are, are pretty fragile
bets. So that's how it feels to me.
I don't think the foot injury, if you thought he was kind of a,
a late third round type of value this whole time, I don't think
the injury should push you to now thinking he's like a fourth
round value necessarily. But yeah, I I'm happy.
I'm kind of happy to see the market price this in a little
bit more 'cause I'm getting him some now in like the back into
the third. Yeah, I don't think I've drafted
him yet. I I don't think I've had a
chance to take him in the 30s at all in rooms I've been in.
But that to me seems about the right price for him.
I don't know, 3-4 turn, something along those lines.
Yeah, I think you made the case pretty well.
I think he's he's a really good running back.
Like I think we do have to give him credit for how efficient he
was last year. You look at the rush yards over
expected stuff. He's really good in that he's
clearly a competent receiver and pass blocker.
They they trust him on a lot of those downs.
But the end of the day, he like, like you said, he's just not
that explosive. You know, smaller sample.
We've only seen one season of him, but out of 50 running backs
with at least 100 carries last year, he was ranked 30th in
breakaway percentage. You know, around guys like Josh
Kelly, Zach Charbonnet, Justice Hill, and you look at his
athletic testing and that lines up with that, right?
Like he's not a guy we should expect to have the Devon a chain
60 yard touchdown run. Obviously it's it's not
impossible for him to do that, but I would think that's going
to be much less likely for him over the course of his career.
So. And he wasn't athletic, right?
So you get to The Who is this guy?
He was very, very poor and Ras and stuff like he's not, he's
not an explosive breakaway player.
Like we we know that about him. That's OK because he's kind of
do. He was doing sort of the Josh
Jacobs like gets every touch and frankly was playing better than
probably Jacobs ever has, or at least as well as he had, you
know, in his breakouts. Yeah.
Maybe in 2022. Yeah, yeah.
Yeah. So he's like Pete Jacobs, which
is, I mean, Pete Jacobs in a stable situation is I think
worth probably a second round pick.
But the situation got less stable.
So now is what is Pete Jacobs worth?
Is he worth a third round pick? Do we know we're getting Pete
Jacobs? Not 100%, but I'm willing to.
I'm willing to chance it in the late 3rd.
Yeah, I think I think that is about the right price.
And the other thing for me is like he now enters this range
right where you look at running back eight to running back 13.
So Kyron, Derrick Henry, Etienne Jacobs, Pacheco and James Cook
and what all these running backs have in common is there on
offenses that are projected to be probably top ten in the NFL
and scoring maybe Jacksonville's more like top 12, not top ten,
but right, Ravens, Packers, Chiefs, Bills.
Like I can make bets on these guys just purely based on
touchdowns, right? Like these are really high
scoring teams, you know, these are guys that are projected to
get a lot of goal line work. And I do think the Rams are on
the more fragile end of the spectrum.
Like if I was going to say one of these teams is is going to
collapse this year, it's much more likely to be the Rams than
the Chiefs, Packers, Bills, in my opinion, just because age of
the quarterback, you know, how dependent the Rams are on a few
players, whereas the rest of those teams, I think are more
robust, stable environment. So that's where I'm kind of just
I'm I'm passing on Kyron and and taking my running back stabs.
More with these later guys in the low end RB1.
Range are you, so if you're, are you passing on Kyron, like kind
of where he can fall to in these drafts, 'cause I'm taking like
let's say I have DJ more versus Kyron, I'm taking DJ more, but
you get to the later range of the third, like are you taking
him over Devante Smith? So I haven't been presented with
that choice. I I I probably would still take
Smith there. OK.
And then I assume like Metcalf cup the.
The line would probably be Pitman for me.
I think I would take Metcalf over him and then if he was
there for me at 32, I would take I I.
So the reason I'm hedging on this question is 'cause I don't
know if he can. If he continues to fall, then I
don't feel like I need to grab him there.
But if if he stays at like 2425, then definitely I want to like
take him when he falls 5 or 6 picks past the ADP.
But yeah, I guess that's a question for you.
Do you think like, do you think this fall is kind of stabilized
or is there more of a slide coming?
Like if we get the, you know, some more Blake Quorum hype
later in the offseason? What do you think about that?
Yeah, I doubt he settles here. I think he'll either fall like a
little more because we do get some additional Blake quorum
stuff or the foot injury lingers.
Sean Mcveigh's not super trustworthy.
I feel like on the running back stuff, you know, on the, on the
injury stuff, like he's like, I don't know.
So it could be worse than than we realize.
So I'm not like saying like if you get any discount on Kyron,
you got to hammer it or anything like that.
But I, he, he falls to me in like the late 3rd.
I'm like, OK, let me mix him in because I was really sitting him
out. I took a lot in the big board
and basically since I drafted Coram, I was, I've been pretty
out. So I, I, I like for me mixing
him in at a good price, at a price that could be the cheapest
we get all year, you know, or roughly, you know, if he comes
back, he's healthy training camp, everything looks good.
They're talking him up. He's like, no, no, no, like
Quorum's, they like quorum a lot, but he's the backup.
I mean, he's going to be a second round pick again.
So I, I like getting some exposure.
I'm making a bet that maybe this is the cheapest price when I
grab him in the the late 3rd. I don't know if that bet's going
to hit, but it seems like a reasonable enough bet and then I
like and I like him at a third round price tag.
I think that's probably reflective of kind of the the
range of outcomes. I think that's smart.
You, you sold me on taking him there at like, you know, 3132.
I think it would have to be some terrible news.
Like the ankle injury is way worse than we expect.
I think even if we get the reports like, oh, it's going to
be more of a committee. The thing is when guys have
these league winning seasons, people don't easily forget that.
Like people are going to remember how good Kyron Williams
was last year and then also like the correlation Bros who take
puka at pick nine, like they're not letting Kyron, you know,
fall past like 36 or whatever. You know when.
They, yeah, they're getting in the fourth.
He's not coming back past puka in the 4th or Cup Cup and puka
in the fourth. Like he won't.
He won't. Yeah.
So I think that's a smart way to play it.
I think is your chance. That's the cheapest price you
get. And yeah, I wouldn't totally
rule it out that once the more casual drafters come in, if all
the news is positive and they say Quorum is the backup, he
could be back to pick 1516. Like, I wouldn't totally rule
that out in August. So it makes sense to to get some
of him now. Jacobs, we've talked about him a
bunch. He's down again, just the
committee stuff. Continue to get quotes from Matt
Lafleur and the Packers about how they like Marshawn Lloyd,
they're committed to using a committee, all of that.
I'm curious if you are OK with Jacobs now at at pick 44 or do
you still think there's too much sort of dead, dead zone risk
with him at this at this price? I'm OK with it.
I don't, I don't love it. I think we run into this part of
the draft, I kind of run into a bunch of like, I don't order the
next group of players very similarly to the rest of the
market. Like I would have, I would have
like if if you said like who's the next player that you think
should be going ahead of Jacobs? I'd be like probably Christian
Kirk. Kirk goes, you know, like 5
picks after Jacobs. So, and you can like who like
who can you get to come around the turn more easily?
Kirk So not that I haven't gotten Jacobs in the fifth
because I have, but it's like, I don't know, I'm kind of like I'm
willing to scoop Jacobs in like the late 4th or the early 5th
and then or let's say in the late 4th and then I'll probably
get someone. I like him in the 5th.
It's kind of how I'm playing it. I don't I moved him behind ETN.
It says the market. If the market said OK, what
who's the next back? He's he's going to be behind
Pacheco. OK, I'm fine with it.
I don't think I would if they said he was behind Cook, I'd
think I'd be OK with it, to be honest.
If they said we're taking behind Mixon, OK, fine.
What's the difference? So I guess like I don't want to
just like be out on Jacobs and make like a big 'cause I don't
think like the the difference of these prices isn't so critical.
And it's like if you're take if you're willing to take a running
back here, you might as well be open, open minded to take Jacobs
here. Sometimes we don't know which of
these if even if all these profiles are similar, we don't
know which ones are actually going to be good, right?
Some of these profiles in retrospect, are going to look
like disasters, you know, and some are going to be the hits.
So I think mixing up your bets among this running back group is
probably a good thing. But I don't think he really
stands out from like, you know, I truly like why should we take
him over? Joe Mixon, What's the?
Yeah, I don't know. I guess he's he's a little bit
younger. He got more commitment from the
team by a little bit. I'd actually have to to Fact
Check that because the commitment that they came.
Yeah, they in a weird way, Mixon got more commitment 'cause he
didn't even need the new contract, but he was under
contract. And they're like, hang on, rip
that contract up, Joe we got. Another point.
Here's the thing though, I guess.
Is that, like, in my mind, Joe Mixon was in like the perfect
fantasy environment for four years on the Bengals.
Like he's playing with Joe Burrow on the Bengals, a team
that loves to target the running backs.
You know, a really good offensive environment overall.
And he was still just not that good.
At least with Josh Jacobs. I can see the argument that this
guy's played with Josh McDaniels and Jimmy Garoppolo at
quarterback and Derek Carr like these these Raiders teams had
been really bad. And that 2022 season for Jacobs
is still way better than anything Joe Mixon has done from
a season long standpoint. So I I see more ceiling for
Jacobs. Like if he's just the same
player he was two years ago, but on the Packers instead of the
Josh McDaniels Raiders, I could actually see that being a huge
smash. And yeah, again, like I'm just
making a bit of, I'm making a bit, I'm making a bit of a bulk
case because I think the general consensus on him is lower.
He's a guy I'd want to be sort of at market with.
I I don't want to take a huge stand on him, but.
That was a non derogatory. That's fair, by the way.
I think that's actually fair. And look, I am I saying why like
Josh Jacobs shouldn't be taken because he's worse than mixing?
No, I would. My point is like I just don't.
It's hard for me to get like super excited about Josh Jacobs
as this falling value that we must scoop and we must
prioritize. And I'm like, I could get Joe
Mixon later. I can get Aaron Jones later.
I can get these guys who I feel pretty good about.
I mean, you can go on and on and on.
And I just don't I don't have that much interest in in what,
you know, what Jacobs is providing relative to what those
other guys provide. Cheaper is really what it comes
down to, especially because like mountain floor is like holding
like lectures on like the committee running back approach.
He's like, they're like, what do you think?
What are you going to do at receiver?
He's like, hang on at running back.
What we're gonna do. If you're gonna rotate the guys,
it's good for their careers. Frankly, if they they last
longer, I think they're fresher. This is a team.
We got playoff aspirations. We wanna keep our guys fresh.
OK? That's why we're gonna rotate
our running backs. Is he?
Just like is he sub tweeting the GM for signing Josh Jacobs?
It almost sounds like every chance he gets he just wants to
blast the GM for. Well, well, is he doing, is he
doing that or is he mad they took Lloyd?
No, I think. They're happy they took Lloyd.
He didn't seem that psyched. I remember, you know, I remember
a crane. I can't remember if it was you
or Barrett who was tweeting out the the coach blurb stuff from
after. I didn't do any this year.
I did. It last year, OK, So it was
definitely Scott then where he was.
He seemed he seemed weirded out that they had took Lloyd.
But yeah, I mean, what do I miss the I miss the Kyron chat?
I just want to say this is a it was a bad price before.
It's a great price now. I just want, I want that on the
record. Yeah, yeah, we're, we're taking
them, we're mixing them into. Yeah, yeah, the legendary The
legendary downside has been outsourced a little bit, and
Isaiah Pacheco's a better pick than all of them, though.
I like the Pacheco pick. The the last thing I'll say on
Jacobs is I fully believe all the coach speak that the Packers
want to make this a committee. The problem is like sometimes
these third round running backs just completely suck and are
irrelevant instantly. Like we saw it with Tank Bigsby
last year. I think we always have this like
collective amnesia about the third run running backs.
Like you look at the list of the third round running backs over
the past 10 years and there's obviously some there's some good
players in there, Alvin Kamara, like there's some big hits.
There's also a lot of remember, remember that guys.
So again, like the coach can want to make it a committee if
Floyd is doing the Bigsby thing or is just, you know, he
obviously doesn't have to be that bad.
Like that's an extreme, but a team can want a committee.
And then if Jacobs is just like competent, not missing his pass
blocks, like way more successful in short yardage, they're going
to shift more work to him. So it's just not this like
stagnant thing where like if they want a committee, it's
going to happen. Like things will evolve over the
season. So yeah, just want.
To know, can we look at just the 49ers third round running backs
over the years? Yeah.
Yeah, this is your fun. I mean, run backs have been
pretty dangerous. What's?
Everyone's favorite? What's everyone's favorite third
round running back for the 49ers?
Me personally, Sermon is the funniest.
Sermon's the goat, I think. Sermon.
'S the goat. Well, is is TTP was Joe Williams
though? Oh, TDP was like instantly.
Like at least Trace Urman bounced around and like got some
playing time with the like. When's the last time you've
heard Tyrion Davis's Price's name?
Today he thought that it was three years ago.
No, I think OK, so Tyrion Davis's Price, Trace Irwin, Joe
Williams is the fourth round pick.
This is a sixth round pick, so I'm cheating Kevin Taylor.
Mike Davis was a fourth round pick of theirs, the actual Mike
Davis, who we liked. The actual Mike Davis was a
49er. Yeah.
I don't. He's a 49er.
I really don't even remember that.
They took Marcus Lattimore in the fourth round after.
His I do remember that. Devastating the injury.
And everyone, James and everyone said that that that that
particular draft was like the 49ers.
The they had had the greatest draft of all time 'cause they
took Lattimore and and Tank Carradine, 2 guys who had
basically suffered career ending injuries in College, in in the
same draft. Yeah, they also drafted Carlos
Hyde in the second round, Marcus Lattimore and then, oh,
Lemichael James in the second round.
Oh. Wow.
And then this is so there's a reason I I knew I did this.
I couldn't. I couldn't remember Kendall
Hunter. Oh my God.
Kendall Hunt, Baylor. I think no Oklahoma.
State. That was Kendall Wright.
Oklahoma State, This is the
Marshawn Lloyd to me. Kendall Hunter, Just like a kind
of interesting dude. Oh, it could be fun.
And then it's like, Nope, never. He was 57199 so he's a little
smaller. But who's the who's the Ray
Davis? Is Ray Davis them?
Is the is or is there? Is there Ray Davis risk?
Are we feeling the same way? We we talked about Trey Sermon,
right? Yeah, OK.
Well, not great. Let's get back to the the JMO
Bateman debate. Unless people have more third
round running backs they want to talk about.
Good Hunter was the last one I wanted to cover.
Yeah, so Davis, you started this.
Here's the rant that I wanted to make.
So I was looking at Jameson Williams.
I was looking at Rashad Bateman kind of digging into their
advanced stats and you can just so easily make a case that
Rashad Bateman is better than Jameson Williams, or at least
like the same player. This is career yards per out run
for both these guys. Bateman is better than yards per
outrun, better in targets per outrun, better in ESPN open
score, better in PFF grade. I can much more easily see him
being the third weapon in the passing attack for this year
compared to Jamison Williams. They got a Monra Laporta and
Gibbs there. Jamo is is not passing those
guys in my opinion. Like and then so again, like
these aren't very impressive numbers and Bateman is barely
better than Jamison Williams. But I'm just like, how many
excuses are we making for Jamison Williams that he's a
pick in the 80s? Like I get he was injured coming
to league. I get he was suspended for a
long period of time but like what if just tearing your ACL
and getting suspended for eight games is like bad?
It is, it is. I mean, that was the whole case
we were making last week and and it's.
Bad. I think it's, I think it's just
bad. How about how about how about
this how about this career 100 yard games Rashad Bateman age
22, he had already accomplished 2 age 23 for Jamison Williams
accomplished none zilch 0. Bateman has at least on a
professional football field, demonstrated the ability to have
a multi reception 100 yard, you know, explosive performance.
I mean, how about this Jameson Williams has been in the
National Football League for two years and has two total games
with more than two receptions. I mean we are talking about a
sub sky more level of performance like like sky Moore.
Sky Moore has been Jamison Williams and Sky Moore are the
spider man pointing me. Not even not even Bateman and
Jameson. Bateman stuff has all been
injuries. Yeah, it's been injuries.
And they also kind of had the like, OK, we're kind of sick of
it stuff where they they bring in OBJ and like they they're
like, we need, we need reliable production out of this receiver.
We basically don't think he's a star anymore.
So let's just make sure we have that.
And now I what I'm feeling like with Bateman is the like, OK,
you know, he can, he can provide us that.
We're basically signing him to be the guy we replaced him with.
Like we're we're bringing him in almost like we brought in OBJ
last year to to have someone. Rely.
I just, I need the chat to be serious for one second.
Just like Jameson, Williams is just not that good.
And if he gets there this year, it's like total luck.
Well, like the Jameson Williams stuff, I mean, Sam's point about
it maybe just being bad is dead on.
And like, OK, you know, the suspension, remember the
suspension was him betting on stuff from the Lions facilities,
non football. But like when they talk about
these guys coming in at like 5:00 in the morning and like
leaving at like 8:00 at night, it's not 'cause they're grinding
baseball parlays, you know, they're supposed to be like
watching. Some of them are, some of them
are. Some of them are, but like
you're at the team facility. What do you you got?
Like you got the apps open and you're, you're, you're hammering
him. That's I don't.
Know Jamison is is drafting, he's drafting eliminator teams
while they're going over film in the in the film room.
Yeah. So yeah, man, like people just
see this is like people just see speed.
They see 40 times and they say like upside, but man, like the
amount of times Jameson has had more than like 5 targets in his
NFL career has got to be like once maybe like maybe twice like
3. Times.
Yeah, it's just and and one of. Them was a six target 0
reception game. He's skewing the stats, man.
He's cooking him. He knew this was coming up.
I, I think the, I think the evidence is, is that Jameson
Williams is like not a very good NFL player.
And if he does get there this year, it will be on a low
volume, incredibly high efficiency, long touchdown thing
where it's like he just, he just, he scores like 550 plus
yard touchdowns, which he has demonstrated the ability to do
at every level. Yeah, this is This is why I
think you can draft him. Sometimes if I find myself
desperately needing a receiver there, first of all, I, you
know, I think about what I could have done differently.
But then I will also take Jameson Williams.
He gives you spike week upside. It's pretty difficult to see
like him consistently delivering production as the third guy in
the Lions. Jared Goff's deep threat.
Also not particularly citing archetype, but like Jared Goff
has the ability to throw deep. He just doesn't very often.
If Jameson Williams is really bringing it this year, he's
getting behind the defense. You know, this is a defense that
is they run the ball a lot and they pepper the short area of
the field of target. So like, this will be a defense.
Defenses are going to be asked to kind of come up.
They're going to be fighting an urge to come up and stop the
Lions from doing what they do best, which is all short stuff.
And so Jameson Williams is going to be the guy tasked with, you
know, taking the top off but potentially doing that like
getting behind the defense and getting open for long touchdown
throws and stuff. So.
That doesn't, it doesn't strike me as really all that hard to
believe that he does have a couple big games this week this
year. And what weeks did they fall in?
And what did you pay for him? And I don't know if you're
paying, if you're like get him in the ninth round and you
probably get by like almost think about him like Hershey
rice like you're getting that's like suspended guy.
But here hoping that. No, but I, I won't.
I'm totally unwilling to do that.
Like Raashi, Rice scored more fantasy points in like his first
five career games than Jameson Williams.
Has period. Well, he's two rounds earlier,
even with the suspension and Jameson Williams were like,
he'll basically be the equivalent of suspended.
He'll be so unproductive for half of these games, but maybe
the other half. Are five I just and also and
also like I feel like for guys like Jameson Williams, applying,
applying context is like actually bad because it just is
excuses. It's just all that it is.
It's just. Coach.
It's just dude, dude, he was suspended.
Dude, he was coming back from a knee injury.
You think they traded up and took him in the first round for
no reason? I'm like, yeah, teams do that
all the time. I just mentioned Kevin White.
Like what? You know, like there was no
reason for Kevin White to become a first And like also, Oh my
God, he was coming off the tour in ACL then like, I don't know,
I, I, I hope you guys are not drafting any Jonathan Brooks.
Then if, if all we're doing is coping for James Williams, I
hope your portfolio is bro Jonathan Brooks.
Like, come on, dude. I know we can't have it Bolt
like Bree Saul came back from an ACL last year and was a league
winner. And I don't know, it's like it's
just guys can come back from the ACL now and be really good.
And if they come back and are bad, like I'm a, I'm a little
bit skeptical to like completely throw out that data now just
cause of how many guys have come back and been good.
And it could be two things, right?
It could be that this knee injury was really bad for
Jameson and he's just not going to be the same player he was in
college like that that that. Probably.
That probably is what it was it like.
It probably was just like bad luck for him.
Yeah, like these injuries are not all the same.
So I don't know. I do want to say Ness had this
comment. The Lions would definitely tell
us to have confidence in him. That's.
True. I totally agree with that.
Like I'm I'm not dismissing the coach speak stuff and look at
their offseason like they let Josh Reynolds walk, who kind of
was their alternative to Jameson Williams last year.
They didn't bring in anyone. I think it's, you know, Khalif
Raymond and DPJ behind Jamo. So I do believe they're going to
give him a bigger role this year.
But again, like, imagine you're the.
Chiefs had a lot of faith in Scott, Morric and Ariasoni.
Too they. They didn't bring anyone in and
then he was. Straight up undraftable.
He was undraftable before this comment.
I don't understand why anyone was interested unless you just
knew the lions were going to feel this way somehow.
But I just didn't understand. I truly did not understand this
ADP at all. The Lions enthusiasm to me is
like, OK, I will take him if he falls like, you know, 8th, 9th,
I'll mix him in sometimes because you know, he does have
the single week explosiveness and the Lions are very clearly
interested in him taking us a leap this year and he's going to
get a chance to do that. He can he can get you out of
jail too, because you can take you can take Goff.
He correlates. He correlates with my favorite
second round pick, Debo. You know, I I'm not saying I'm
not saying he's like unclickable, but the dude, the
dude stinks. And I this guy more into Tony
Stunk too and I took them so you know.
Just just close your eyes and imagine.
You're we're all going to lose anyway.
Yeah. And then also at the end of the
day, like it's fun and taking guys like Jameson is fun and
take and Bateman not that fun. I mean, I I will say this, I'm
never taking Bateman if Lamar is not on that team, not not even
for Stroud. I'm Bate my my correlation.
I'd use them as a Stroud bring back.
No, no, I can't. I can't go there.
My I'm. I'm actually going back to the
Bateman. Well, I'm doing it.
No, OK, this is what's. The point, dude, it's, it's so.
Trying to You're trying to replace Devante Parker in your
heart, and I don't. I have to I have to say Rashad
Bateman going from exciting young rookie breakout to to
Sam's new Devante Parker is is really, really tough.
Tough. I really thought Bateman was
going to be so good too man. Here's the thing on like the
Bateman thing too, and, and I don't know how much it matters,
but like the charting stuff on Bateman, you see it on open
score. And then also if you look at
Harman's like reception perception stuff, Harman is
still tripling, quadrupling down on Bateman saying he's good.
He's saying Jameson Williams is not good.
If you look at that data, it, it is pretty, pretty bad for Jamo.
So that's the other thing, like if, again, if I forgot who came
up with this metaphor, maybe it was buying for is like chasing
waterfalls a thing that he came up with this year?
Yeah. Like if I'm chasing waterfalls,
I'd pick 150 plus I'm OK with it.
Like at pick 87 I would. Rather take Greg Dort straight
up over Rashad Bateman, honestly.
It's hard to push back even. I just, I, I, I've got, I've got
no interest in round 14 Rashad Bateman unless I have Lamar
Jackson on that team. None, zero.
I will. I will not click an uncorrelated
Rashad Bateman. Yeah.
It's fine. Could take.
I could take Luke McCaffrey instead, and to be honest, I'd
rather. Let's talk here.
I wanted to to close the show talking about a couple more
followers. We got TJ Hawkinson, Keaton
Mitchell, Nick Chubb on here. What do they all have in common?
They have injuries that were just not being really priced in
appropriately. Now.
Now, I think it's like fair to argue if they are, but I did
this research early in the offseason on pop candidates and
three of the top four guys here that are on the Smaller's list,
TJ Hawkinson, Keaton Mitchell, Nick Chubb.
I'll flag them again. I'm obviously not a doctor.
I just purely did the surgery date to average recovery
timeline math. All these guys had three of the
four highest pop candidate risk in the league last year.
So I think the fall on all these guys is appropriate.
I mean, it was insane. Nick Chuck was going at pick 69
when these pre draft tournaments opened.
He's at like 120 now. TJ Hawkinson was going at pick
98. Like they were egregiously
mispriced for a while. I I do think it's interesting.
Now let's start with Hawkinson. Like pick 133 is starting to get
a little more interesting to me. I'm curious, Patton Davis, with
your guy's ranking starting with you, Davis, have you been more
interested in him at this cost? I've got him ranked below this
even. But The thing is, is it's very
everyone who's done one of these drafts has told themselves the
TJ Hawkinson lie, which is you miss out on all the elite tight
ends. Oh, Bowers went.
What do I do? I need an elite.
So this is what I'm going to do. No one will also think of this.
I'm a devious. I'm going to take TJ Hawkinson
slightly ahead of ADP, get a back to him with no a fan.
And then I'm going to take one of the early season that Zach
Ertz Dawson knocks with him, and by the time he's back, I'll have
access to elite tight end production.
Yeah, it's a good I've. Done that.
I don't reach for it though. I only let it fall to me because
I I think he's still going like 20 picks too high.
Like legitimately so I he has to fall now he has fallen to me in
some of these puppies and stuff. He's fallen and I'll scoop him,
get a little exposure, but I don't know.
I I think he's going to keep falling.
He's going to miss a bunch of he's.
Going to he's when, when when that dude gets when they when
they put him on the pup round round 14.
Yeah. So I have here week nine, I have
that as his optimistic return timeline.
That would be nine months. That's the typical timeline for
a clean ACL. Now he also torn his MCL that I
guess the MCL according to the injury experts is not that bad
compared to like meniscus, PCL, etcetera.
But it's not, it's obviously not not good either.
So again, optimistic return to return timeline is like week
nine. Now some guys can come back in
like 8 months so extremely optimistic would be like week
5-6. That's still pop list likely in
my opinion. So yeah, I just don't see many
avenues to him like skyrocketing an ADP unless he just breaks all
these timelines and comes back way earlier than expected.
The other thing is that I feel like, you know, we're we're not
going to knock Jefferson because he went from Kirk Cousins to JJ
McCarthy because he's Jefferson. Addison has fallen.
I feel like a little bit like certainly lower than where he
would have been if Cousins had resigned probably by a couple
rounds. But like, how much of this is
going to get baked into Hawkinson because we're talking
about the injury and when he's coming back, But we're talking
about probably the third option on the JJ McCarthy Vikings.
It's not. It's.
Not that high ceiling of a play. Yeah.
No, it's not because I think, I
think the the thing we feel the most confident in is that it
just doesn't matter for Justin Jefferson, or at least I should
speak for myself. I don't think it matters at all.
I I literally think he could get there with Zach Wilson.
I think he's that good. I didn't get there with Darnold,
I don't think. Oh.
Yeah, yeah, That's what I meant. That's what I meant.
I I agree He's yeah.
But there are going to be big knock on effects if if McCarthy
is not quite great, they're going to be big knock on effects
for Hawkinson, Addison and Aaron Jones.
Where where those got the the the pie is gonna be much smaller
for those guys. Yeah.
And I think with with Hawkinson, I think it is like a sneaky
piece of Jordan Addison's ADP that's maybe not fully baked in.
Is that Jordan Addison, I guess and for Jefferson too, right.
Like I was trying to think today, who's the wide receiver
of three on the Vikings? Brandon Powell.
It's yeah. So it's gonna be with Brandon
Powell out there and I guess Josh Oliver as the tight end.
It's going to be insane. Buddy, that is the 12th highest
paid tight end in the NFL. Yeah.
But yeah, it's going to be insanely concentrated between
Addison and Jefferson for 10/11/12 weeks.
Like what are their, you know, combined target shares going to
be? 55% funniest possible 4th wide
receiver for the Vikings. Funniest possible name?
First round pick Flake now. Laquan Treadwell.
So Reger is a Patriot, but this is this guy is related.
This guy is related. Treadwell is also on the roster,
but not the 4th wide receiver. Or Treadwell.
Kevin White got him. No, Kevin White is the funniest
possible. Kevin White is the funny Kevin
White was in the NFL as recent as two years ago.
Yeah. The answer is the answer is in
keel. Harry is on the.
Froster Oh wow, it's pretty. Funny.
That's funnier than Rhaegar for sure.
It's funnier than Rhaegar. It's much funnier.
Although, although Rhaegar coming back to the Vikings in
this like punt return role that he's in, I mean, that would be
good content. That would be extremely good
content, yeah. Jalen Rhaegar.
Not the first time would be pretty.
Funny. We'll talk quickly here on on
Keaton Mitchell. He's also yeah, I just want, I
know we talked about this Ravens backfield a little bit, you
know, two weeks ago show. Pete Mitchell, Undraftable.
Yeah, man, he, he seems, I don't know because he was so damn good
when he was on the field last year, but this so I have him
here as just a clean ACL. There's been some like mixed
reporting on that. Like the people who watch the
video and say they can see stuff from that say that it was like a
really nasty knee injury, even though nothing's been reported
outside of the ACL. So I don't know, in spirit of
avoiding dead roster spots, I've been kind of avoiding him.
So yeah, I think I'm with you, Davis.
Rasheen Ali Learn the name I. Think Mitchell.
I think Mitchell's like draftable on Texans and Raven
stuff. Yeah, sure.
You know, and I think in a weird way, I think the Texan stuff is
almost more interesting because you're not betting on the
Ravens, you're just betting on the Texans to score points and
the Ravens to, you know, get pulled into the game.
So you just like you just need Keaton Mitchell to be active and
interesting in the final week. If that's if your bet is on the
Texans. So that's where I'm doing it,
but I'm not doing it a ton. But I do think he's draftable.
I think he's draftable, just kind of with how much he flashed
last year and it was a pure end of the the season, like one
spike week type of bat, which if you get one massive spike week
or one not even massive, but just like very usable 23 points
out of Keith Mitchell. Pretty psyched.
You're pretty psyched. You're gonna be.
You're gonna. You're gonna be the opposite of
psyched when Rasheen Ali is scoring a bazillion touchdowns a
game when Derrick Henry retires mid season.
The problem for Rasheen Ali, I think, is Justice Hill.
No, I think I think this is your classic Justice Hill is who he
is and Rasheen Ali is the maybe even game day inactive but plays
when Henry gets injured like he he just comes in and runs runs
the are you. Are you so but that's like a
parlay where you you have to also then hope Mitchell doesn't
make a a strong recovery because he's he feels practice squatty
to me Rasheen Ali like I need information that he's not gonna
like he is he not Tyler Beatty. Oh my God, yeah.
I mean, he probably is, but you know, man has to believe in
something. Pop pop quiz on Keaton Mitchell.
He had 47 attempts last year. Did he have more or less yards
per carry than Devon 8 Chain? Sorry, who?
Keaton Mitchell Keaton Mitchell Did Keaton Mitchell on his 47
attempts last year? Have more?
More 'cause he had like an 80 yard touchdown.
Yeah, he had more he. Had more What did he do?
He had 8.4 yards per carry on nearly 50 carries. 60% breakaway
rate. Literally like.
He was great. He was actually so insanely
good. It's honestly such a bummer
because I I do think this injury is just gonna tank him for this
year. I'm excited to see him.
I I bet they don't. I bet if he doesn't hurt his
knee, I bet they don't do the Henry thing.
Seriously. Like he was that good.
Yeah, I don't. Know you, I think you're playing
for one week. Like I think, I guess I don't
know, maybe he isn't draftable and we should just wait until we
have more information. But what the injury stuff.
If he if he starts the season on pop like he's he's going to make
like, I don't know. It's not like he's going to get
cut or something is what I'm trying to say.
Like he's going to be on the he's going to be in the mix and
if he comes back, they're going to sort of get to see what they
have. I don't know.
Last round pick honestly like you're fishing in dead roster
spot territory already at pick 206 like I.
Don't and I guess. I guess and.
Correlated only. Correlated only.
Yeah, yeah, to. Be to be fair, you know, they're
generally you're trying to do one of two things with your 18th
round pick. You're either granting big dead
roster spot equity for, you know, this year's Kyron
Williams, or you're just trying to patch a hole.
You're like, I got to, I'm going to take Dawson Knox because I
might need 6.2 points in weeks. I'm just imagining right now
something about Sam's look right now, too.
I'm just imagining him outside like tinking around in the
garage, like just patching his hole with like a little Devante
Parker. Mac Jones.
Mac Jones is just building a stool.
Mac Jones. Did you guys see the clip of Mac
Jones doing the gauntlet at Jaguars practice?
That is one of the funniest things I've ever seen, no.
Police, police. I can't wait for like the I'm
sure Danny Carter's going to have like a Mac Jones is better
than Trevor Lawrence take. I'm I'm excited for that one to
come out pretty soon. Yes, yeah, he's he's
workshopping that. All right, let's do.
Let's do Nick Chubb. Did you know Nick Chubb is the
best pure rusher in the NFL? It's a darn, it's a darn shame
he's not healthy. I'm taking him now.
I'm taking him. I'm taking him now 'cause you
can get him in like the 12th, 13th round sometimes, but I.
Why not? Why not at that point, I guess?
I still prefer like Blake Korum, Chardonnay, I don't know, maybe
maybe this is totally like really bad takes, but he's a
2829 year old guy with the combination ACLMCLPCLLLCL like.
Dude, it's bad. Yeah, I, I don't think that's a
bad take to prefer Quorum, Charbonnet, those guys over him.
I think if he if he ends up settling, it's.
Just behind but I think I might flip them.
Yeah, if he ends up settling in the 1:30's, like he would be
like a 5% mix in guy for me. I think maybe 3 or 4% 'cause I,
I don't know, like I just need these guys coming off these
devastating knee injuries to, to prove me wrong.
I mean it's such a big difference like the rookie
running back who tears his ACL and it's a clean tear versus
like the 29 year old veteran. And he's already injured this
knee before. He's already injured this knee
before. Yeah.
So it's like it's like when you, when you recover, like look, I
don't know if you guys, I don't know if you guys know this, but
if you know ball your, your knee, you know you're, you're
going to, it's going to get progressively weaker.
Like it's not, it's not going to recover the same.
Yeah, I think if you, if you're getting Chubb at a price where
you're basically betting on contingent upside to unlock late
season performance, which may or may not happen, then OK, Yeah,
like you're getting your Charbonnet or whatever quorum.
The problem that I see even compared to those guys is that
like OK, with Chubb, it's not contingent.
He doesn't need contingency, he needs everything and actually
kind of go best case scenario. And then he he kind of recovers
from the knee injury and takes the rightful place as the
starter again at the end of the season.
But like, what are you even getting?
Then when I had Matthew Betz on the pod, he was like, he did not
seem particularly bullish about what Chubb will be even down the
stretch coming off this injury at his age.
I think age is a pretty big part of this.
Like Chubb kind of proved that, you know, in the first recovery
that he had this devastating knee injury, but you can kind of
come back from that as a super young player.
When we see this stuff in older players, it doesn't tend to go
nearly as well. So I don't know.
I, I definitely, it probably in like the 1:30's is really where
Chubb starts to be interesting to me.
He's fallen a lot. I think in the one teams there's
a fair amount of opportunity cost like you're getting, you
know what, Javonte Williams might still be on the board or
is just gone, gone off. You're getting him two years
off, devastating the injury. I'll take that for sure, you
know. Give me the chubby Chase Brown
or Nick Chubb. Yeah, give me chase, Brown man.
Yeah, give me Chase Brown. Yeah, I, I understand that like
Nick Chubb could come back and be good and if that happens,
he'll be better than Chase Brown.
But like, there's this is a this late in a guy's career, this
injury is, is pretty concerning. So I think you have to be.
Really only paying for the second-half of the season and
with running back prices being what they are that doesn't
really happen until I would say after at least the one 20s like
you're getting. You can get Zeke at 129.
Are you paying for half a season with Zeke?
Maybe. Yeah, you probably are.
You probably are you. Probably are getting eight
games. Maybe, but you might get a whole
one. I know I'm not getting a whole.
You know, you know what a great you know what AI mean?
The the comp, the comp that obviously terrifies you is, is
Adrian Peterson coming back from the ACL where it's like he just
he totally owns your soul. But yeah, I don't know.
I mean, this just feels like a like, what do you want me to do?
What do you want me? You want me to take a guy I
didn't like anyways ever for fantasy football because he got
hurt. Like he's coming into the season
knowing I'm going to take six zeros from him at least.
I don't know. So one thing that's interesting
here is we can get in into a little bit of what the Browns
expectations are based on the contract stuff and what
happened. He could have been cut and the
Browns would have only had 4 million in dead cap this season,
meaning they would have paid a $4 million cap hit in 2024.
Chub would have been off their roster.
What they decided to do was basically reduce his cap hit
from 15 to 6 this season. So they basically they tacked on
two more years or sorry, two more million in guarantees and
said, hey shove, you're not getting paid 15,000,000, but
we're willing to pay you an extra 2 million to be on the
team this year. So essentially you can think of
the Browns giving him kind of like a one year $2,000,000
commitment this season instead of cutting him.
That's not a ton of commitment for a running back, but at the
same time it's it's not absolutely nothing like it.
It does signal they have an expectation he's going to play
this season, right? Like you, you would have just
caught him instead of paying him the extra 2,000,000.
So that's where I think. I mean, they, they clearly like
him, right? I mean no one, no one, no one.
'S a fan, Yeah. It's a fan base.
And I think it's a locker room.
I think the guy's a team leader when he got paid.
Remember when there was a whole thing of are they gonna pay this
guy? And it's like, dude, you have to
pay this guy like he's, he's like what the like the heartbeat
of the locker room, Like this guy, he's.
Like the he's like the only guy with a positive Q score on the
entire roster. Yeah, like the Browns do not
need to cut Nick Chubb. Like, that is just bad for
business after, Yeah, after everything he's done for them.
So I think very, very smart for them to find a way to bring him
back. Exactly.
But yeah, point being there is like, I think you can say they
have some expectation he's going to play this season.
Just think it's far more likely it's gonna be like an 8 to 10
carries per game as they're bringing him back.
Like I don't think we're getting 20 carries a game.
Nick Chubb off this injury. So yeah, like.
I'd probably ever, right. Like, what are we ever getting
there? Are we getting it in Week 17?
That's the part that concerns me.
Like what am I even paying for at the end of the season?
Was it like 12 carries? Yeah, I think Charbonnet is the
line for me, right? Or maybe even Rico Dowdell is I
like. Rico More.
Yeah, like once it's past there and we're getting to guys that
we have no idea, like their depth chart position or if
they're good at all, then I'll start getting back in a job like
around pick one 35140. But yeah, I don't know, 80 PS
flat in this range. Like it's, it's not I, I no
longer think if this is some like egregious pick that it
clearly was at pick 70. I just think it's like meh, like
I don't know. I think I yeah, it went, it went
from terrible pick like would never do it to That's fair.
Dude, that's fair. That's that's where I am at now
too. Yeah, yeah.
It's fair. All right, end of the show here,
guys. We, I think we've kind of gone
away from this for a couple weeks, but let's get back to our
favorite closing line value. Oh, damn it.
We we didn't do it. We didn't do it when we could
have been taking or someone could have taken Rashad Bateman.
Yeah, I know. That'd have been a huge.
One big miss, Big miss for us on the CLV.
Yeah, I am scrolling right now. I imagine you guys are as well.
No, I got one. I got.
One I got I jump in. You go first, Pat.
Well, I'm worried I might steal your guy.
So you? I don't think so.
Mine is a mine is a high pick. OK.
All right. I'll go ahead, Braylon Allen.
Got it. OK.
I just wanted to save him for future times.
But yeah, the drum beat. The drum beat has been
inevitable. The the thing that we knew was
going to happen is happening. The There's two drum beats here.
One, Braylon Allen's starting to get some hype. 2 Izzy Bandicanda
is loathed by The Jets coaching staff.
That drum beat has happened for the last two years and it is It
is deafening. It is deafening.
There's just no chance that it's Izzy.
It's not Izzy. We know that this is not. 0.0 So
who is it? Well, now it's like it looked
crowded before. Is it Isaiah Davis?
You know, is it Izzy? Is it Braylon Allen?
What's the point of even guessing?
We're not guessing anymore. It's the answer's Braylon Allen.
It's that's who the the RB2 is for The Jets.
I already feel pretty confident. You know, the draft capital
difference should be helpful with him and Isaiah Davis.
I know they sound like Tariq Cohen to me.
That's like, it's definitely not Izzy underlined rather than
anything to worry about with with Yeah, it.
Literally, it's like it's like extra.
It's not Izzy because there was a chance that Izzy could be like
the kick returner that could use his athletics.
No, it's like Izzy. Learn, learn, learn.
CFL buddy. Yeah, so I think you're going to
get Braylon Allen's the clear RB2.
You're going to get that drum beat.
You're going to get, Oh yeah, Braylon Allen was massive.
Didn't, didn't, don't you know what he did as a freshman at
Wisconsin? You're going to get that back.
Don't you know? Don't you know?
And then you're going to get Nathaniel Hackett's always run
committees. This guy always has a committee.
So we're going to get that whole.
Narrow. So I think Braylon Dalvin, they
were consciously giving Dalvin Cook the ball over Breece on
purpose. They gave they gave Dalvin Cook
$7 million last year. Last year.
Like you're, you're telling me, you're telling me there's no
chance. You're telling me there's no
chance. This clown shoes organization
isn't going to give Braille and Allen goal line carries.
You're telling me there's no way.
I don't believe it. That's what I'm telling.
So he's he's rocketing up. By the time we get into August,
we're talking about Braille and. Allen RB, 46.
They're holding hands, Yeah. Yep.
Yeah, mine is. So mine is kind of related to
that in terms of reading the tea leaves for camp stuff.
But it is Isaiah Pacheco. I I think the Isaiah Pacheco
drum beat is going to get insane for two reasons.
The first being people are going to realize they're just going to
have done the mental math of their Carlos Hyde's not walking
through that door. Melvin Gordon's not walking
through that. It's like this backfield is
Isaiah Pacheco, a guy you hate, client Edwards, Hilaire and
nobody, I mean, Deneric Prince, Kiante Ingram, maybe James
Williams is going to come back out of the roster, out of the
out of the ether. And and the Chiefs drum beat is
also going to get louder as people realize they are going to
plan on scoring a bunch of points.
Right now. The market is kind of Gretch has
mentioned this, Sean has mentioned this.
The market is still kind of treating them like the 21, you
know, like 21 1/2 points per game Chiefs and they're going to
realize pretty quickly that's not happening this year.
And, and I think, I think the pitch echo will end up going
into the third round and is going to flip Travis Etienne.
It's not that different. Obviously the running back
drafting landscape is way different, but it's not that
different of a set up from when Damian Williams was a first
round fantasy pick, right? It's not not that different.
So I don't know if that's good, good or bad, but yeah, I think,
I think. Damian Williams, I took in the
second round of my first ever main event.
Yeah, I. Don't think he was ever the
first time 'cause I. He was a he was a second
rounder, yeah. Yeah.
But anyways, I'm gonna go with with a weird one here.
I thought about a lot of different options.
I got a Galaxy brain one Semaj P Rein.
I think he has lots of outs because I still continue.
To this is such a coward one because it's a lock to be true.
No, it's just right. It's just.
Right. Oh, just be right, you coward.
Yeah, here's the thing though. It is a bit of a coward pick,
but I do think there's upside. OK, here.
Here's outs to being. Like I don't see why it's a
coward pick. This is a good pick.
Here's why. Yeah, OK, He has out to be a
pick in like the one 20s on a few teams, right?
Say the Texans. They're like Damien Pierce,
you're garbage. Samadre Pieran gets caught.
Bring him in, pay him $2,000,000.
Where's Samadre Pieran going as our clear RB2 on the Texans?
I'd say one 20s, one 30s. He could go to the Cowboys,
right? And I think again there.
He goes back to the Bengals and. Sends the.
Ground to the nether world. The Bengals is the other one I
was going to bring up. I am so fucked in that I
shouldn't even you're. Telling me Zach Taylor doesn't
want to sign some Ajay. Pi shouldn't even put it into
the ether because it will be so bad for me if that.
Happens own too, because it's like, got a bet on talent, got a
bet on talent. And then we take a big bag of
this guy and some Ajay P Ryan shows up and we're like, look.
If Sumash P Run gets traded for a conditional seventh round pick
to the Bengals, I might just take that as a sign to not play
like it's like enough enough. That's gonna.
Be tough, man. That'll be tough.
Yeah, Let's not have that happen.
He's he's got some outs. It's disgusting, but it's it's
gonna happen. All right, guys.
Are you? Directing him now, are you?
Are you waiting? No, I he's been my emergency.
Like I I'd take Clyde Edwards Hilaire over him, but if if CEH
is gone and we're in like Tank Bigsby, like Will Shipley
territory, that's when I'm clicking P Ron at that point,
like he, he's my breaking case of emergency right now.
Pick the Chargers. The Chargers, I'm gonna move him
to that range. Because like, honestly, if he
doesn't get caught, then what? That just means that the Broncos
want him in that same role last year where he caught like 50
passes. And you know what?
If Jaleel gets hurt or something right like.
Well, well, it's not. That bad of a setup?
I guess that means estimate and and the other guy Watson don't
don't make the team. Yeah, probably means like
estimate his knee scope. Watson's surgery.
Yeah, Watson makes the team. P Ron's done.
Well, if Watson makes the team, McLaughlin might be done.
Right, right. Yeah.
Yeah, but P Ron in the setup on the Broncos, like Sage Avante
gets hurt man P Ron would I mean, who else is going to take
like the between the tackles carries there?
I guess that's yesterday, but but yeah, I yeah, that's the.
Problem with the Broncos? There's always like two other
guys it could be. Yeah, and it's not, it's not
even. And and it's like it's like, oh,
you guys aren't taking Cortland Sutton as the wide receiver one
for the Broncos. And it's like, great, it's Week
15 and Lil Jordan just led the team in targets and.
You're like, I'm still mad at Sam for not doing that threat at
Sam's. Sam's Cortland Sutton is going
behind two Titans receivers. It's just, it's just sitting
there for all of a sudden you won't do it.
The thread, the thread for me would be Josh Reynolds Crane.
It's a it's a mystery. To my friends, come on.
Josh Reynolds is locked into three wide receiver sets for Bow
Nicks. For bow Nicks.
For Remember Jameson Williams in 2023.
Do you guys remember Debri Henderson?
Cause boy do I. You're right, I I misread that.
Yeah. All right, guys, let's get out
of here. Crane legendary upside.
I saw Sacri just had who's in the chat here.
I saw he had a cool new article on legendary upside.
Any anything else you want to mention going on there?
Yeah, that came out this morning.
Some good stuff in there on diversification and specifically
some really interesting thoughts on how to attack the Sprint
format. So if you're interested in that
really almost in a sense how not to attack the Sprint format, as
we discussed you, you want to be more diversified in that format
than others. And he gave some really good
examples in that in that piece. So check that out.
And I'm going to have a article on running backs out later this
week, so look for that. legendaryupside.com/perks You
can see how to get $50 underground credit with a yearly
subscription. Still have some of those
available. Awesome, Davis, I see you're
you're back to riding on automatic absolutes.
Yeah, officially I've done more automatic absolutes than Cavish.
So that feels that feels like like a win sports, good fantasy
football podcast take cast, all of the all that stuff.
Sounds good. All right, guys, We'll be back
next week. Peace.