Hello everybody and welcome to a special late.
In addition of ATP Jai Singh. Today, we're joined by special
guest, Jack Miller new full-time member of the see our team.
It's off all things running back, Dead Zone, Rogers, and
Chasers otherwise Let's get going.
This is atpg. You see?
Let's go. Pat fryer homos hand job.
Fix your side with your Mar Everybody.
Welcome to ATP. Chasing Jack.
We're really excited to have you on and congrats again for
getting that role DTR. That's awesome stuff.
Yeah, how has it been working full time over there?
D.c. are so far. It's been good.
I mean etrs, great. The whole team is great.
Just working on the projections a bit and then doing some
content on the best ball and then some wedding stuff too.
So it's been fun and I'm excited to be here today.
To first time on the ship chasing channel of shows.
So this will be good. Also the awesome.
Yeah, yeah. Looking forward to it.
And thought you've been diving into some, like, Niche wedding
stuff over at EC are, right? I feel like I've seen you tweet
out like, WNBA. That's what it's gonna require.
That is part of your, and your contract.
Yeah, I've gotten really into the WNBA over the past couple of
years, just because it's like the summer.
So like there's like, you know, we've got two months till
football mbas over like a. Like, if if you're looking to
bet, you've got baseball, which I've never really done a huge
fan of in the WNBA. Is the only other option.
So I've just been kind of doing that on the side for fun.
Yeah, I guess that's probably better than tying up your your
money for eight months like we do invest Ball.
But yeah, I mean I've been doing my fair share of that to, you
know. It's not so much an either-or as
much as it is a both situation. Yeah, makes sense.
Pat. How's, uh, how's your weekend?
You still in in slow draft hell, or have you escaped from that
yet? No, I mean, I'm still deep in
the slow draft weeds, you know. I will say that it has not been
as bad as I thought it would be. You know, you gave me these
horror stories about the big board, but the big difference is
that, you entered slow drafts days before the NFL Draft, when
they had to set it down to one hour clock, just to get all the
drafts and time. Done in time, before the draft,
I'm sitting here and June, you know, there's a nice little a
tower clock. I got goes to 11 hours late in
the evening. I don't have to worry about, I'm
on the clock right now and probably 50 drafts, but I took
care of the ones that were under four hours.
So have a nice long podcast today and I'll get back to it
later. I've been doing the Star Trek,
you know, where I star the players of the teams that I
draft, especially in the early rounds, I did that as a present
for for myself for Late June self, and its really paid off in
a big way because and I can go in there.
I can see, oh, I gotta correlated guy right here.
It's much easier from the desktop when you're doing like,
120, slow drafts at once that's another, another Pro tip right
now. Yeah, I so yeah Pat reference I
entered like I don't know, a hundred of the superflex drafts
in the two days before that I fell drafts.
So they all closed pre-draft which is just like an absolute
nightmare because once the really bad thing is once the
clocks start ticking down, I think it got down to an hour per
pick and I was in 100 draft. So I'd wake up in the morning
and have like, five minutes left to pick in like, 20, drafts and
be like, this is just, yeah. Yeah, that's the thing.
DraftKings you know I was in like a handful of slow dry like
five and that was way more stressful than being in like
120. So drafts on hundred because
it's a just a straight eight hour clock.
So, you know, if you go to bed, you like you sleep, you sleep 8
hours and 10 minutes, you might miss like a 500 dollar, best
ball team. You don't want to do that.
So I don't think I'm gonna do anymore, DraftKings slows.
Hopefully the fast was Bill a little bit more regular because
I'm trying to get more action down over there, but Cobra Kai
saying this slow drafts are so boring.
When you do enough, then you're basically always on the clock.
So he's almost like, you know, you can sit there for an hour
and just draft Pics. Like, constantly, you have to
familiarize yourself with all of the teams which can be a little
difficult, but it's like, sometimes it's like more action
than being on a in a single fast draft.
You know, you're almost multi-tabling at a certain one
draft, degeneracy, Jack. Do you have a slow draft first
fast? Fast Draft take.
I definitely prefer doing the fast drafts.
Like I'll have a couple times every summer where for whatever
reason all like I think it's a great idea to join like 3050.
However many at once and I'm like, I'll get the like around
8:00 and I'll be super bored. But I mean, I'll probably do
that again. Just because it's like a, it's
like a, you know, it's like a for whatever reason.
Sometimes I just get the urge to mass entering, so I'll do that.
And then, you know, week later, I'll hate myself.
But generally, I think I prefer the fast.
I haven't done a single slow BBM and I don't plan to and I don't,
I had to do the slow bulldoze because they're only slow, but
for the most part thing, you know, 25 and up, I prefer to do
fast but for me, it was a puppy strategy.
How do I get 150 of these puppies in?
Yeah, I mean, it's undeniably like a plus EV strategy when
those snapshot tournaments are about to close.
And then you get one extra, how long?
These last like a month, the slow drafts or I don't know.
Couple weeks. At least I can get a glass like
a month. Yeah.
Almost an extra Flakes and fashioned kind of like it's it's
kind of like, I don't doubt that it's an edge, but I've already,
I've already been through the pain, I know that the clocks
aren't going to change, but that was like, you know, you know,
the what's analogy, like your parents, get you smoking a
cigarette and they force you to smoke the entire pack at once
like a listen. I'm a hardcore smoker.
Now this backfired Mom and Dad. I'm gonna do this again.
I cannot emphasize enough how important it is to use the Star
Trek in this. Like you have to like when
you're when you like fire off like 50 slow drafts at once.
It's a blast because you're getting like you're picking in
the first round, like a million drafts at once and you're just
like, click exit the draft, you know, pick exit the draft pick.
Exit job. Don't do that, don't do it.
It's so fun to do it, but don't do it.
Pick star the team star, the opposite team exits that way,
less fun but you will, thank you.
Self later. Yeah.
That's that's something I could definitely be better on.
I do agree with the like snapshot tournaments, the slow
deaths. For I don't, I've only done like
a couple best Ball Mania draft so far because I'm waiting until
I kaga stand. Then I'm gonna do.
Damn. And then I'm going for three
deep right now. I'm planning to like because
Leone had that the best ball Manifesto and it showed like
that doing it later is better. A lot of that is like the dead
player. So I've just been waiting On my
best Ball Mania teams and then I guess I'm going to be like
trying to crank out a bunch of fast drafts in August.
I think is my plan. Yeah, that makes sense.
I think I'm going to ramp up a ton in August.
I still have been I think I've got like 20 or so that's Paul
Mania drafts and so far but I've mostly been playing around other
snapshot tournaments and waiting it out but sometimes it's just
it's too tempting to to do a best one.
Yeah, I didn't know, I probably did five this week.
Weekend. This is like, yeah I tell you
what when, when a snapshot tournament opens up like a super
Flex Chihuahua, It's hard not to want to jump in.
Best Romania for me. I'm like, I know that's where
everyone's going to be. It's like, super Flex.
It's like fun. Fastereft only like everyone's
going to be hanging out over there, like might sneak over the
best Pomeranian see what that looks like.
So, I did that, I'd honestly do that like five times.
Got some really interesting teams did I did to McCaffrey, I
think it was McCaffrey Pollard. Briefs starts that I did two of
you sitting there just like, I don't know.
This is not going to be around in August, right?
That's what I said. That's what I've been saying
since like, with these things opened up in May and the running
back. It's funny there.
Anybody ATP has stayed, I think maybe they've crept up slightly,
but I'm with you. I don't think that'll be a thing
in August. Yeah, it's also the type of
doing, we're gonna dive into this because Jack wrote an
awesome article on the infected Zone and how its shifted over
the last couple years. Is ATP is shifted, but it is the
type of thing where I would be much more hesitant to do that.
Start like if there was no Chihuahua, Super flex.
But my hope is that there's just like enough of like, kind of the
wide receiver Bros over there, that I won't get absolutely
punished by the room for going with that start.
And then I think I kind of pulled up a unfortunately, both
drafts Kittle fell all the way to the sixth round so I only had
three wide receivers through seven rounds on both teams.
But that's the big question right now is can you take
advantage and go like hyper? And take advantage of like
really interesting. Running back prices, early in
the draft, or are you better off grabbing one may be hitting the
old dead zone is Jack writes about in this piece that being a
little bit more interesting. There's like it makes it, it
makes it definitely like hard to know what to do at every point
in the draft, which makes it fun.
And there's a huge dip like when I've done, you know, handful of
those RB RB RB starts and it makes a huge difference, right?
If you are In a room that's going to absolutely punish you
at wide receiver. And I'll let you catch up or if
you're in a room, where, you know, Tyler Lockett slides
around pass ATP, and you can get them in the 7th or Mike Evans
Falls around past ATP and you can get them in the eighth,
right? Like, if the room kind of gives
you a wide receiver value later, I feel like I get the best of
both worlds. So s still Hammer, four wide
receivers and that window and get three potential Bell, cast
running backs. But the room doesn't always fall
that way and it can, like I have like you mentioned that Have had
those teams where I started three running backs and then I
end up with like three through seven or something like that
because the room didn't hand me any water sewer values and just
feels really thin. But anyways.
Yeah let's let's dive into Jax Jax articles.
So for those who aren't familiar, definitely I posted it
on Twitter. You can find it on Jack's
Twitter as well but it's on establish.
The Run Jack writes. A really interesting article
about the running back Dead Zone and how Ow.
We have to re-evaluate if the dead zone still exist or to what
extent it exists with the changing running back landscape.
So I guess we'll start with this Jack from from your research so
far. Do you think the running back
Dead Zone? Like as you traditionally
defined it as you know, running back.
Some rounds 326 still exists on a site like Underdog Underdog.
I think it's kind of tricky because like all the data we
have is for a completely different like a teepee.
Input. If I had to just say yes or no,
does it exist to the you know, extent we've seen in previous
years? I think I'd say no because of
how depressed running back ATP is and the half half PPR format
over there. Yeah.
Is it possible that it exists and it's just rounds five to
seven instead of rounds 326? It could be.
But like, the whole it's not like the guys in Around three
are just cheaper, like the guys around three are cheaper, but
like, it's like that through the whole draft, I guess if that
makes sense. Although, I don't know if that
really answers the question. It's such like different price
points. I guess.
Like it's a different bed entirely because the guys that
have underperformed, I think like in rounds, three rounds
three and four, like if you can get them in round 6.
Even if Like scoring the same amount of points.
I gets a completely different bet.
I don't know, you know. So one thing I thought that was
interesting. I think along those lines.
This is a chart from Jack's articles.
This is this red line here is running back scoring by draft
position and have PR points and the green line is wide receiver
scoring by trap position and traditionally what we've seen in
this. Dead Zone which, you know, I
think roughly is pics, like 36, through what 72?
If I'm doing that math, right? We see a big gap where even in
half, PPR historically, you know, 2020 2021, the wide
receivers in that range are outscoring the running backs and
happy PR last year. I think was the first time Jack.
Correct me if I'm wrong or we saw that actually in that dead
zone range, the running backs actually outscored the wide
receivers sort of on average, so It was an interesting view where
I thought that like maybe the market even last year was sort
of pricing in The Dead Zone affect more appropriately in
that like you know, these lines are pretty close right there
running back and wide receiver lines.
Like there's not a huge gap. Jack did I summarize that well
or anything else? You'd want to add on that?
Yeah, basically. Um like I don't have the yearly
half PPR data because like we have Hefty are scoring for, you
know, dating back 10 years but we don't have the ATP so we can
really We only do Underdog for a few years but wide receiver
typically has outscored running back on Underdog over the past
couple years and in PPR it's been like a huge difference for
in rounds three through six like the blue line is way higher than
then the red line. Yeah.
And there you see the PPR version and even that is like so
much less pronounced than it was in previous years.
And part of that is that it was a good scoring year for running
backs in this. Ins and a bad spring here for
receivers in this range which is, you know, kind of just like
your to your variance. But I think when you like pair
the, the that with the fact that our be ATP is so different than
it was three years ago. And this year like looking at
this half, PPR chart like running backs, outscored wide
receivers last year and now running backs are all like
around cheaper. So when you kind of like put
those things together it kind of like begs the Question of does
this exist anymore? Can we talk I just sent you a
link to a tweet the Hayden. Yeah because I think what's so
interesting about this is like Okay so this data would lead us
to think that we're coming off a year in which was really good to
draft at least one running back through the first six rounds but
it's the exact opposite. It was optimal to have zero
running back. Through six rounds last year.
It / a chart that I just put in the private chat here for you
Sam. Yeah, let me try to share that.
Sorry. One second, second best was one
running back third-best was two running backs and so on it,
never it never flips. The fewer running backs, you had
through those first six rounds, the better last year.
And so, even though wide receiver prices were were more
expensive and you could, you know, you could say that was
incorrect because they didn't score.
Scores. Well, it was actually quite
powerful to have very few running backs through through
the early rounds last year. So what, what are your thoughts
on that? Because it's kind of, yeah, to
square those two things. I don't think that the answer
cuz running backs are still like such a higher risk investment
then receivers with, you know, the injury risk.
Like, some of these guys around speakers looks like don't even
have a secure, hold on their job the whole years.
So I don't think like the animal answer to the running back.
Dead Zone going away. Potentially is like to start
going. Robust are be and loading up our
running backs. I think like In the past few
years and you've written about this with bimodal or whatever
it's called nowadays, is that it was a good like the running
backs in the first two rounds. Previously had very high bust
risk but their ability to have like legendary upside was just
absolutely off the charts. And so I think maybe with the
depressed running backs atp's in round 3 26.
The answer isn't to dislike load up on running backs.
All of these rounds because there's so much evidence showing
that wide receiver. Heavy starts are good.
I think maybe it's just instead of being like, you get your two
running backs or your one or two running backs in the first two
rounds and then you just pound Rod receiver forever.
Maybe the answer is, you know, focus on receivers in the first
eight rounds. But you can sprinkle in a couple
running backs like wherever you want as opposed to, if you don't
get one into round two, just going Full-on 0 RV at that
point, if that makes sense. Yeah, I like that a lot.
I think that that's, I mean, that's kind of, like, how I'm
thinking through this, so that sounds great to me.
Yeah. Because it does feel like the,
the issue that we have in current draft environments, is
that wide receivers. They've gotten even more
expensive than last year. You had a really interesting
chart in your article, I don't know, Sam, if you can pull that
one up, that was showing the draft, the Baseline Underdog ATP
and then DraftKings and comparison to that and F, A PC
which is just like looks crazy, crazy, in terms of how much
later the wide receivers are going compared to Underdog on
FPC which is a full PPR format. That's is, you know, that's
somewhat because tight ends are pushed up in a Titan premium
format as well. But, you know, we have this wide
receiver pricing on Underdog. That's really unlike anything
we've ever seen, especially for half PPR site and That creates
value almost has to create value running back.
But it also creates a situation where, you know, you can get
like fully locked out at wide receiver and can happen very
quickly. And so like there's this Push
Pull of, I want to go get these running backs.
I want to take advantage of these types of starts but then,
okay, I've done that. Like I mentioned these, this
McCaffrey Pollard restart. That I did twice over the
weekend on one of the teams, my top four receivers are McLaren
Chris Godwin, Michael Pittman and Brandon Cooks feels pretty
gross. Like, I maybe I can get there at
those running backs. Are absolute studs, but it can
like get away from you pretty quickly at wide receiver.
So that's It's just, I don't know.
It just makes drafting really yeah.
So I wanted to say one thing on this on this Hayden chart and
let me try to share it again, sir.
I was having some internet issues for a second, but so is
this sharing right now? No, just just okay, there we go.
So this chart, what I think is interesting about this chart pad
is so it talks about right? It was awesome.
All to have zero running backs through Six round and kind of
how do we square that with the last chart?
We showed we're running backs are you know seemingly
outscoring wide receivers in that range?
I think like what would I see when I see this chart is that
like the league winning running backs?
Weren't drafted and rounds 6 like by closing line ATP Josh
Jacobs was a seventh-round pick. Tony Pollard was a
seventh-round. Pick your Mantra Stephenson was
a seventh-round pick or later? I'll sander.
Yeah MI Is like an ape round pick Jamaal Williams was like an
11th round pick, right? So I think like one
interpretation of this chart and like a lot of the data that's
showing how good 0 RB is, is essentially measuring.
Did you draft remond Ray Jacobs Pollard?
Kenneth Walker or Jamaal Williams who all went like
round, seven, eight later, right?
Those were like the biggest League.
Well, not just did you draft them?
But did you draft them, and structure, a team to maximize
that hit? It right?
That's that's why you're running back works.
Is that it's not just that I drafted from Andre.
It's that I drafted room Andre and when he hit it's like sorry.
You don't have the wide receivers I have because I'm
matching you a running back now. Yeah, but I do think it's like
like I agree with that. But also if you nail your, if
you go bimodal running back and nail your to first running backs
and then Hitler Mondrian round. Nine like you did on your, you
know, two million dollar team. That's also extremely powerful.
It's oh yeah. Also works.
Just that that also seems that have work for some people.
So, I don't know, I guess like the reason why I think the data
shows this, like, we have to realize that the running back
League. Winners largely did come in that
eight nine ten, eleven round range and not not rounds 4
through 6, right? But anyways, yeah, I think
another thing that's interesting on this This Jack is just the
PPR verse verse half. PPR and even for ffp, see, I was
surprised by like how tight this was to even like wide receivers
are still out scoring running backs throughout which would
expect in full PPR but maybe it's just my memory serves me
wrong. But I remember seeing like this
huge sort of like Gap in round you know, picks 40 to 80 in
Prior years that just didn't show up last year.
So again, you know, probably system.
Deck of what happened last year, four wide receivers running,
backs in that range, but I did think that was interesting as
well. Yeah.
Any thoughts on like the full PPR if that's like corrected at
all? Or I think it's correcting any
right that in previous years, the gap between running backs
and receivers in these Rangers like 50 points.
And now just now just like kind of guesstimating off the chart.
It looks like last year was like 20 or 25.
I've but it was like a good year for running backs in these rains
like the group are be 10 to 25. Scored more than usual and wide
receiver. Attend 225 scored less.
And I don't really think that's like a trend, I kind of think
that's just variance so that could explain part of it.
But I do think it's really interesting that ATP is
correcting but it's not correcting like as much as
Underdog which like you mentioned earlier.
Like it should be the opposite so I think on PPR like FF PC or
DraftKings or something, like I'd still lean toward receivers
in these range, maybe not as strongly as I did previously but
I think generally I'm still going receivers around three
through six on the full PR sites because receivers score more.
And like on those sites, you want to start a wide receiver in
the flex, whereas, on running back, it's sometimes more viable
to have a running back there. Plus the atp's not shifted as
much. And yeah, God Pats are.
Well, I just want to ask you because, like one of the reasons
that the running back Dead Zone has been such a key thing to
avoid in recent Seasons, which you highlight in the article is
that if you were taking running backs in the dead zone, you're
taking these profiles that we We were kind of like systematically
missing on you talk in the article, like, when you compare
some of their Andrews work, like when you look at ATP verse, the
expert consensus rankings at fantasy pros.
There were sort of this, like, consensus bias or whatever.
Like we were just missing on these running back profiles in
the running back Dead Zone, it's like systemically and so you
have that issue or it's like it's these guys were probably
less. Good at predicting.
You're taking those guys and you're doing it in a part of the
draft where wide receiver has not fallen off yet, but is about
to and so I go, I want to get your thoughts on that part of it
for this year because it's wide receiver moves up in price.
Where is that drop-off for you occurring?
Like is it you know, like around round 5 now or is it?
You know, it feels like to me. There's a couple places.
As you can nominate. I mean, I think there's a big
tear break even in the third round.
There's a tear break that I see, kind of more in like the early
5th round. There's another potential to
your break in like the mid seventh round.
Where do you think that fall off?
That's kind of made the dead zone.
So, powerful in the past. Like, where's that placed in
drops right now? Yeah, that's that's a good
question too. Um, we I mean, one way to do it
would be on a macro level I guess since we can quantify like
how much these guys have jumped in a teepee?
We could just like take the end of 6th round cut off.
Let me find how far around they've jumped but I'd say like
that early round 5. I think that you bring up as a
good point and then maybe like, late round 6, but given how much
they've jumped That would I guess be like if if we say it's
like around 6:00, but why do you see where ATP is up around?
Then that would go past what we've previously defined as the
dead. There was that your was the
drop-off happening before it was around the end of round 6.
Obviously, it's kind of like approximated so easy.
I've for the like analysis I've done in the past.
I've used pick 72 it's just because that's like easy for the
End of the sixth round but I guess more broadly typically,
approximately at the end of the sixth round.
Yeah, and I think to your question Pat like another, like
another answer to that question could be that like and I do this
wouldn't be my answer. I don't think this is exactly
true. But like at a certain point back
to Blair's point of like we used to systematically miss on
positions in certain ranges, and that traditionally was, we would
draft running backs in round three to six when we should have
been taking water receivers because we're pushing running
backs up. You know, with bad profiles,
Etc. It could get to a point that if
we do push those running backs down far enough, they'll be
priced such that the opportunity cost at wide receiver is
actually like the right pricing at that makes sense, right?
Like if the traditional underground dead, something
balance ghost in each other. Exactly it the percentage odds
of the, you know, Mike Davis profile.
Hitting if he was a tenth round pick, instead of a sixth-round
pick, maybe that's that actually accurately captures his His odds
of hitting, right? And I don't think we've fully
got there like they're still running backs, I'm avoiding in
that range and there's still someone targeting.
But I think like what this chart kind of shows right?
Is like we're getting closer to a world where there's not this
systematic inefficiency of running backs being overpriced
in a certain range, potentially right?
If this sort of trend were to hold for multiple years in a
row. So, yeah, it's interesting
debate. No, I think that's exactly
right. We're it, if it's a certain
point, You know, there's this bubble of wide receiver value
that has tended to exist and then there's this group of
running backs that are mostly. They're mostly appealing because
of projectable volume and make those two things are never going
to change, right? There's always going to be this
group of running backs, use mostly peeling, 22, projectable
volume. And this group of kind of not
Elite wide receivers but like really strong wide receiver
profiles. That were kind of like like, I
don't know who to pick, you know, and that group is like,
you generally want to be overweight that group of wide
receivers and underweight, the wide receive the running backs
were just getting there on volume projections,
historically, but at some point, maybe if it's that those
projectable volume running backs versus like, You know, to just
miss Schuster it's like yeah I think the projection based
running back at that point. So yeah, it is certain point
like but to me write it really comes down to what can I get in
this part of the draft that I can't get later and I'm trying
to figure out, you know, and it's kind of its kind of
interesting right now and drafts because when I look at a brief
Halt and I'm on the bullish side of the briefs all evaluation,
but you know, if you just kind of open your third eye, And join
me in Bruce Hall, optimism land. If you're one of the people that
worry about it, you're there. I'm an optimism land.
Yeah. All right.
All right, you know, if res Halls the guy we saw as a
rookie, if Aaron Rodgers isn't washed, and if he is at full
health in the back half of this season, having a running back
like that in a tournament that is massively back.
Heavy in terms of when we want our points to be scored.
Like, you know, if I could pick which weeks, my points are
scored, it's 17. Then 16 then 15, right?
Like I want those are the weeks I most want points.
So having a young running back is, you know, hopefully going to
be a full health by the very end of the season and hopefully
going to be able to pay off a third-round ATP, which is not
particularly high for, you know, really strong running back
Prospect, right? That type of thing.
I'm like I can't get this later, I can't get a guy who might be
like the top-scoring running back in all the fantasy playoffs
later. Like there's just not much
They're not much like a realistic chance of finding that
later when you are moving into. So then but then it becomes a
question of like, okay, now in round four and five like, what
am I giving up at wide receiver? Like, can I get these profiles
later? And I think that's the big
question and drafts this year. So yeah, when is that cutoff of?
I can't find this later at wide receiver because I can talk
myself into like Trail and perks and Jahan Dotson and that's a 67
round. You know, 6, 7 turn.
Turn type of player. Like I can talk myself into
those guys being like, legit high-end kind of breakout
candidates, but maybe that's maybe I'm waiting too long.
Maybe I'm delusional. If I think those guys are really
going to keep up with the, the wide receiver, heavy teams early
on. Yeah, yeah, to answer the
question from earlier about, like when the new cutoff is four
wide receivers, if we just look at kind of I guess, the macro
level receivers are going around six to eight pics earlier than
last. You're so if you just take the
end of round 6 cut off that, we've been using a lot and apply
it then we'd say maybe middle of the sixth round which kind of I
think aligns with the micro level.
Take just looking at the guys in the middle or later half of the
sixth round. That maybe like that group
though. I like they're literally half a
six-round. Yeah.
I like like through Addison, maybe, which I guess is the same
cut off of used later. I feel like maybe after that, I
start feeling a little worse about them.
Yeah. Yeah, I like Pickens and and
Dawson, okay? I like Gabe and Johnson, okay,
too? Yeah, that's where it gets a
little iffy for me. I'm a little skeptical.
Gabe Johnson Cooks a larger more baby, but I've like, I
understand that you can have different takes on those, but I
think you have to at least like once you get the Tony like if we
can if each of us individually start to see profiles or were
like oh I don't know about that. It probably means that in
general that range is a little bit like questionable if that
that makes yeah. Yeah but I like the lace.
Eight, the late six, right? I mean, if you just want to say,
I guess the on say is kind of moved into the early six but he
was late six for a long time and then Evans Burke's Addison, I
mean that feels like a pretty pretty strong group.
Actually Yeah, I agree with that.
Maybe after Addison, just kind of on the micro level in terms
of how it feels. But I guess part of, I mean,
it's interesting because part of the whole point of the, our be
dead zone is that we're like it's not based on the micro
level, right? It's based on like, yeah, the
systemic efficiencies or lack thereof but it's like it is that
systemic efficiency is based on ATP isn't Magic, right?
It's like their specific types of profiles, tend to go in
certain ranges of the draft and my thinking on this is that
those profiles as they move up and down, are still likely to be
sort of grouped somewhat together because the market as a
whole is kind of valuing, like, you know, we've got our Surefire
running backs, we've got our, you know, got a, got a question
mark or two, but man, the upsides appealing.
Then you get into, like, I think this guy might suck like half
the market thinks he sucks, but the workload is going to be
there and like to me, that's not Joe Harris, you know, like half
the markets, like, pretty much out on his profile and so he to
me signal sort of the start of like the traditional Dead Zone
and yeah and it's at the very end of the third round of the
early fourth. So it's about like trying to
find that pocket of the draft which still is going to exist
and then trying to figure Out of those prices relative to what
you can get at the other positions or are still too
pricey. Yeah.
So I got a point off that pad that exactly kind of transitions
into where I wanted to go next. This chart here, I wanted to
sort of show. So we talked about 20, 22, the
ADP was different, running backs for price down a little bit and
it kind of like things kind of, Smooths out between water, super
running back scoring. I think we now have to look
towards 2023 where there's been another, like 2022, was already
a pretty big Shivan atp's. Now we have an even bigger shift
in 2023, so this is just looking at running back ones, on
Underdog, the last four years and to me this this chart is
incredibly striking like the the rb7 this year, Tony Pollard,
which is one of the sort of bright green lines in the 2023.
He's going later than any running back. 12 went over the
last three years and these were guys like, I don't know, Kenyan
Drake and Some of these running back profiles, were terrible
picks for the record mostly they were terrible.
Well, terrible, but it was also like Jonathan Taylor years.
It was around running back 12, right?
Like so there's definitely wasn't really what you running
back 12 that year, crazy. I don't think I can.
I think I think he was he was an early second.
Well pick, he was eight to twelve, he was a running back.
He's running back nine by closing ATP but that's the
thing. Rest of the running back.
Nine used to be Once you turn pic now the running back nine is
like a mid third thick. So yeah, that's kind of the
point of this chart. And the question I have for you
guys is like, I think the big thing to figure out right is
like, are this year's running back profiles like uniquely bad?
And that's why they're being priced down?
Or is there just like this systemic anti running back bias
based off like, you know, people's perception of the data
last year? That's true.
Doing these things down. I don't know that it's fair.
I would just be careful about calling it a bias because we are
coming off a year. We're running back.
ATP was down significantly and the move was to avoid running
backs early. So like it is it is possible
that the market has just been drafting these backs like too
early for a very, very long time and It could be the case that
going 0, running back this year. Is now a bad idea.
But even if that's true, I think that hero running back could be
the way to go, you know what I mean that the diving in like
that hyper fragile still might have a hard time in this
environment because of how gross it gets at wide receiver when
all the wide receivers are priced up like this.
Yeah. Jack, you have any thoughts on
it? Like this year's running backs
are uniquely these. This year's running back ones
are like uniquely worse than they've been in years past.
I don't think like overwhelmingly.
So, um, I mean I was, I was kind of like, leaning toward yes.
But then like, Pat brought up, like Kenyan Drake.
And These Guys, these are the guys that were going in in the
first round like only a couple years ago.
So I think it's such a pain. It's point.
I think it's like a correction because I think there is a lot
of data showing that the more wide receiver.
Heavy starts have been optimal and so people are, you know,
naturally shifting toward that. But I guess the question is
like, if we've trended into like over correction territory
because of this chart is pretty jarring.
So maybe there is an argument that the running backs this year
are slightly worse, but I don't think Yeah, I mean I don't
really think they're overwhelmingly worse.
Such that it would justify a change of this extent, I guess.
Yeah, I don't think so either. I mean sorry pack pack.
Glad you have thoughts on that. Yeah I have some so to me the
the profiles are I think the profiles through like You know,
8 through 11 are not really any worse.
When you look at me, pull up the ATP so Jacobs Henry, Pollard,
that grouping briefs. Yeah, I like Polly like polish.
So if you go down from running back, seven, Pollard, Henry
Stevenson Jacobs Hall and Harris especially if we flip Harris and
etn, which I would always do. Yeah, let's do that.
Feels like yeah. Let's just do that market get
that get that right to me that's like a very strong like a very
strong group of running backs from 7 to 12 and to me that's
the that's the group that I want to be overweight on.
And I think when you can get those guys in the third round, I
mean it does. It really does open up some
things for you and your draft at the same.
I'm it creates downward pressure on the early running backs
because it's like, okay I only need one you know maybe I don't
need but I would probably prefer to have Max 2 of these guys in
the early rounds and so I'm sitting there looking at be John
Robinson and the lady first you know at the 108 I'm like should
I take Bichons like or Eckler? It's like I might be able to get
breezier in the late 3rd. I might be able get Ramon Dre in
the late 3rd Jacobs maybe even like Why am I why am I going to
take this guy? Like I can get wide receiver
wide receiver to me, there's like a pretty big tear break
that happens around, you know, Crystal Lobby of Devante Smith.
So I get two guys before that to your break and then I can go get
briefs and maybe I can. If I want to take etn coming
back in the fourth like All right, I feel pretty good about
that. Start it create.
It's like one of these things where, if no one's valuing them
because we I think a big part of this is like you just has never
worked to go through robust running back that has never
worked and like that would be we almost need us a year like we're
taking five running backs in the first seven rounds was optimal.
Like we need that here because otherwise because I / fragile
isn't even a true counter to this hyper fragile saying, I'm
going to get my three, you know, I'm gonna get my to and grab one
of the six or whatever, and then stop it for whatever you do,
however, you want to kind of do it.
Environment. But even then, you're still
limiting. The total Capital spend at
running back. It's like a fragile.
Originally was a counter to robust running back in some
ways. It was an account or 20 running
back. Yeah.
It's and so, I agree with that and I am not suggesting that
robust. Our B is like, the, the counter.
I do think that like, what has shown up as a good strategy and
maybe not last year, it didn't show up very well, but but
getting two running backs in the first three rounds or first.
Four rounds that did pretty well in 2022 years ago, I want.
Yeah, it was and limiting limiting, you know, still
limiting total Capital spent running back but getting to guys
early and then, you know, waiting a bit to get your third
and fourth. I think like and I tweeted about
this, I don't need to go into all the details, but I think
that's the counter to this year's drafting landscape and
I'm not like reaching a shit ton 1080p Taking like Nick Chubb in
the first round over the Vontae atoms or doing stuff like that.
But just like in general, through three rounds, I'm going
to have two running backs on like a huge percentage of my
team. And I know just looking at the
numbers, like, only 12 running backs are going in the first
three rounds. So, if I'm doing that most of
the time, then I'm going to be overweight that strategy,
compared the field. That's going to be my way.
I think of attacking this, what I see as a bit of an over
correction and this running back landscape.
Eep. I have some data here that this
is like, obviously it's a little bit cherry-pick, but I was
trying to do a micro analysis of, okay, this year basically
running backs to through 12 and wide receivers 7 through, 20 are
basically being drafted in the same range where assist Oracle,
it used to be that like running back to through 12 would be
drafted, like ahead of wide receivers, like, one through
six. That's why Zero running back was
so good and like 2020 2021, right?
Why in theory was really good, but now it's like the opposite,
right? We're wide.
Receiver twos are going like ahead of some low end, our be
ones. So if you just take that
grouping historically and go backwards, the running back one
group generates Spike weeks like points above replacement at
basically 150% or to 200% more than the wide receiver grouping
does in that range. So that's why it again like I'm
not saying it. You know, roster construction, I
still acknowledge you need one more wide receiver, an underdog
than you need. Running back all that.
I'm not saying I'm not saying throw that all out the window
and only look at this. I'm just saying like this
discrepancy in the spike weeks given that I think this year's
running back ones are not like uniquely bad by any means,
particularly the low end ones. That's why I think like a pretty
clear counter to me is to go with the two running backs
through three rounds again. Like Derrick Henry and Josh
Gibson, get injured and weak, one this year.
Year and the strategy blows up in my face like I acknowledge
it's not a hundred percent going to work, but from looking at the
data, that's what I think is, is the best counter to this
landscape. Yeah, I tend to lean that it's
that it's one through. The first three is kind of the
optimal counter because again, the wide receivers being priced
up so much like, really, really stings?
And so it's like it's about as well at what can you get like
later in the draft? But can you can you find some of
that running back upside later in the draft?
And is there any wide receiver upside left?
And so I do take, I take plenty of two running backs through the
first three rounds. As I mentioned, I just did two
three running backs to the first three round starts, which I try
not to do, but if I, if I can get guys from like, I don't know
like McCaffrey Pollard and briefs could be like the top
three picks of like, you know, we were drafting for the back
half of the Season, you know, depending on how the season
breaks, we like those are the top three guys you want.
So, you know, I will make exceptions there.
But yeah, I think two running backs 33 is Ali, fine.
I I tend to prefer one through three.
Because I'm more of a micro take thing which is that I really
fucking feel the tier break, you know, you can argue if it's
Devonte, T. I think it's I think there's
like maybe even many to your brakes there because like to go
from T 2 DK Metcalf feels like a big tear break to me as well.
And so I'm sitting there I'm like, it's either a quarterback
Mark Andrews or running back in the third round for me right
now. And I like, I like having two
wide receivers before that if I can do it like I I'd rather go
cup a lava then cup, JT, you know, and I think like in a
vacuum cup, JT's a better combo, but when I can go couple, Ave
Jacobs, or couple of a breeze or couple of a Henry and I like
basically no one of those guys going to be there a room, Andre
I like know for a fact I'm going to be able to get a really good
running back pick and that third I just start to feel like my
overall rosters better if I if I break ties to the one running
back I understand that. I've yeah, I disagree, but I
understand that I just think that, like, I don't want to
overthink the that selection, too much bass in Ross for
construction. When I just think that like, JT
chub like these profiles. Historically have way more
upside than a lot of not saying. A lot of it doesn't have upside,
he can hit, but just like zooming out, right?
But I think I disagree. I think a lot of is let me suck
in your wide receiver who is you know, Target earner first-round
pick. I think that okay.
Yeah it's not it's not of mine. Girls love it.
Yeah, sorry it's not a micro law they take.
I guess I'm just more going back to this Pat.
We're like you look at the wide receivers that the market has
priced in this range. Historically, verse the Rhine
backside pressure in the strangest or Klee like it's not
even close. Frankly like 150 to 200 percent
higher odds of Spike week, like, but I understand the roster
construction point of view. But right, this is only one part
of it though. This is yeah, exactly.
Yeah, it's one thing. But I just think that big of a
discrepancy in the odds of a spike week.
I'm going to say I'm going to like maybe take the minor hit to
the roster construction argument and figure out wide receiver
later and like just take the Arc Type of player that historically
has gotten, you know? It's like weeks ago, I get
three. But Jack curious, what your,
what Your approach has been through.
You know, let's talk early round roster construction.
Do you have, like a preferred through three rounds strategy
and Underdog? Are you kind of mixing it up?
Or how are you sir? Trained at this year for me?
I think it kind of comes down to like the micro player.
Takes a little bit, like, I really like it.
Nick Chubb, this year, I love Jacobs around three.
Lots of I can get like two of the guys.
I really like I'm more inclined to go to running backs through
three otherwise I'm fine with one like Pat mentioned.
I do think this year compared to last I can be more fluid because
I feel like in previous years with the dead zone it was almost
like a like a checklist of grafting.
Like you would first like the first two rounds.
I did like one running back sometimes to and then I was
literally just almost thoughtlessly drafting.
Yeah wide receivers whereas this year with things so different
I'm more willing to just take both positions and take the
value where it lies because the price points are so different.
And then, I mean, I guess there's also something to be
said for if we think this is a correction.
I'm not just like a crazy bias that people have because we've
seen that you know, wide receiver, every states have been
so good. So if it's a correction toward
efficiency and maybe it's an overcorrection and there's I
guess more reason to trust the market whereas in previous
years, we could, you know, differ more if that makes any
sense at all. Yeah.
We like I guess from a running back and wide receiver
perspective, I'm leaning into the market, a lot more than I
was in previous years instead of going Into let's say around for
saying like I'm taking a receiver here unless our running
back Falls absurdly past ATP. And I think that that kind of
extends to the first few rounds as well.
Like I'll just, you know, follow the market to some extent.
That's fair. Yeah, it's really interesting.
The point you brought up about like, yeah, I think the way the
market is corrected opens up way more unique constructions, like
it used to be right? Like, I'm basically just closing
my eyes or, you know, on selecting the running back to
have and rounds through Sex in Prior years and like completely
ignoring them, besides maybe one or two specific Targets this
year. I'm like way more open to like
most picks in that range. So I feel like there have been
priced appropriately, so that's an interesting way of putting it
where it's like, there's not as many clear rules I think anymore
about like when you can and can't take running back.
So if you want to build like an anchor running back team with
like Joe Mixon or Kenneth Walker.
Like I think that's interesting. You can do that like there's all
these unique unique ways, you can play it the landscape this
year. That's just something saying
that. At some point.
I agree. Although I, I will say I'm
pretty underweight in jazz a group, what we would probably
call the traditional Dead Zone backs like I'm I'm let's say I'm
like way underweight Nagi. I don't really consider etn,
like it classic DeadZone back is entering his second actual year
in the NFL, after missing his rookie season Gibbs is, is a
kind of classic Dead Zone back as a rookie, but one of the
types that we would want to be targeting in The Dead Zone,
historically, so I don't mind him mixing has its own issues,
he's tough. But like, I don't have a ton of
Walker that will take him in the mid to late 5th.
Aaron Jones. I'm underweight on.
I will take him sometimes JK diamonds.
I actually kind of like Jake Adams a little bit Madison.
I'm on our way Sanders. I'm Sanders is like the
quintessential DeadZone back to me, like he fits kind of all the
stuff from years past, but what I'm curious about Jackie's,
like, what what's your view On The Backs?
Let's say like, starting with with actually sleep, let's say
starting with Madison because you will see Madison and Sanders
and Peers sometimes fall into the seventh round and then acres
has basically a seventh-round ATP and then Swift Pacheco.
Dalvin cook, David Montgomery, were shot white, James, Conner,
Javonte Williams, James Cook, takes you until pick 96, and so
that range of the draft, I would say it's fair is fair to say
that wide receiver. We have had a tear break at that
point and and these guys are also sort of classic DeadZone
backs, right? David Montgomery like
quintessential Dead Zone back of.
He was a sixth-round pick but he's got an ATP at the end of
the seventh. You can get them in the eighth
round then that that's actually to me where like want to talk
about. Like the shifting prices of The
Dead Zone. This is the part of the classic
dead. Zone that I'm kind of eating up
the backs in, I'm sort of still passing again.
I will take Jones and diamonds and some those guys sometimes
but I'm like, underweight. The group of running backs that
still falling in like round the end of round five but I'm pretty
overweight the group of running backs.
That's actually like falling into you know, around 7. 8, 9.
Yeah, I guess my question for you then would be if we're kind
of compare. In the market to where it was in
previous years. Do you think that like Mi
Sanders in previous years would have had the same ATP that were
no pairing. So then like figured it out like
a fourth-round pick so then like even though he has the classic
Dead Zone like archetype I don't have like an answer to this but
can't I how can we be sure that like him in the sixth round is
bad right? To me.
It's less about Sanders specifically you know and like
the archetype specifically and more about what's happening at
wide receiver. So it's like my bet is that wide
receiver hasn't fallen off yet is really what it is.
Is that I'm the opportunity cost remains High.
My gut feel is that the opportunity cost remains High
when I'm looking at Sanders compared To the wide receivers
around there and that the way I've constructed my teams,
especially if I built the way Sam, builds and gone to in the
first three. Like, I don't even know that I
have the flexibility to take Sanders over the wide receiver
in that range. Like I kind of have to take the
wide receiver there. You know, it's the way I think
about it. So that's like why I'm shying
away from Sanders, even though I do agree there's probably maybe
even like a to Route maybe benefit from pick but I would
say at least around discount relative to us like 20 1980 P.
Yeah. Yeah, for sure.
And I think that makes sense. I agree with you on Sanders from
a micro-level. I just feel like, less certain
in that because the price is so different.
But I do agree with you. That I feel a lot better taking
these guys later, like, David Montgomery.
I think is, is a great value right now and other guys in
these range to. All right?
Connors no one challenging him. He's old and he's on a terrible
offense. But like Like, you know, Zero
running back. Sam you talked about earlier how
you could get like these amazing wide receivers in the early
rounds in like 20 you know, 15 or whatever which was naturally
true. But what then you were left with
is like committee backs in like around seven.
You know, you were like taking guys that we were taking that we
are now taking in like the tenth round or the 11th round or even
like the 12th round sometimes would be like your or B2 and so
like it does feel to me like as much as James Conner comes with
all sorts of risks and, you know, could be a total disaster.
I'm like, that's a profile is not up in price like this
historically. Yeah, I agree with that and and
like, I have brought up that and I'll show this chart here that
like once you get to a certain point at least relative to last
year again. Reminder last year running backs
were still price down, but at least relative to last year,
once you get the running back, like 30 3249, the prices, aren't
that much different, but Connor is, Rarely in the range where
the prices are heavily discounted to last year.
So I guess he's had that like this was the range to take
running backs like even if they were the same price as last
year, you'd be like great. This was just what worked So,
yeah, I'm with you that like, and maybe this is where we
differ. Where like I do a lot of bills
where I go to running backs through three and then I hammer
wide receiver. Maybe I take four rounds three
through six. Is that right?
Yeah. And then I guess around seven
and eight and if I'm staring at like David Montgomery or James,
Conner, I'll tack them on. As my running back, three in
round eight, and I think that's not that different from what you
did on your best Ball Mania team, right?
You took romaji probably the tenth instead of the eighth,
right? Yeah.
But If you want to talk about like converting it to auction
dollars, if you were to go, you know, wide receiver, running
back running back and then grab a running back around. 8:00,
like, you probably even spent less than I spent on my exact my
running back running back to start and then running back
around 10:00. So, yeah.
And I think we need to start thinking about things like more
like that as things start to get like shifted around.
Like it's not going to be as easy as running.
Back running back then. Then skip.
Yeah, white, the running backs here, like you're gonna have to
think about things more. Like budgeting in terms of this
pick is worth this amount of dollars type of thing.
I think, exactly. I think it requires much more
creativity than than we've had in the past.
And yeah, I can just just to finish my point.
I think, like the pushback I get a lot of my strategy of two
running backs through eight. It's like, oh, you then you
can't get any running back values later.
It's like, well, I don't know if I hammer wide receivers of for
my next five picks and then I'm looking at Montgomery and round
8. I'll do that and then I'll build
out, you know, Bellator around quarterback and later downside
answer. Add you like I don't think it
necessarily precludes me from getting those.
I understand that like I probably on average like can't
take advantage of the running back values later as much, but I
think I can still get a running back in that range.
Even if I go too early, I have to be careful about how I do it.
But it's are you willing to go? Let's say, running back running
back quarterback. I have I have done that and I
treat that pretty similarly, where then in my next four or
five rounds, I'm getting water Seaver.
Almost every round. Let's get crazy happens, right?
Like someone Falls way past ATP, I am willing to do that and I
have been this a whole other comp top of conversation.
But yeah, the third round of quarterbacks once although I
think it's you're gone or great. Yeah, I think it's a huge part
of this conversation though because the Outside of Lamar who
I take a lot of these days, like, in my, in my 150, slow
drafts or whatever like Lamar's a big part of.
I don't know, my exposures yet, because we're still ongoing, but
I've been taking a lot of them and it's because I think the
running back to your brake has happened and there's been a wide
receiver to your break and Andrews is gone.
So I'm like, Lamar, this is easy, but when you look at the
early half of the third round, the running back to break is
definitely not occurred. You could maybe even get a wide
receiver. You like there and then you know
but that's like okay if I want to go wide receiver running back
running back to start my draft. I've got very little of Mahomes
Allen and hurts and I think I am underweight all three of those
right now. Yeah I understand.
But I don't like it. I would like to be.
I'd like to because I will say from the early part of the draft
Sam, I'm probably more on your side of things where I, I would
bet I have a lot of wide receiver running back running
backs. Arts from the early part of the
draft Because unless Allah vase fall out when a lava used to
fall to the two three turn that wasn't true but now that he
liked tends to get snapped up, I just start to feel like why
wouldn't I just do that? And that one answer those the
Ali quarterbacks which makes this happen conversation.
At one point, not to pick on Nick in the chat saying so he
says saying wide receivers are mispriced ultimately doesn't
matter even if true because there's no counter strategy to
exploit it, if you don't take a lot receiver through three, to
four rounds, you're buried. And so, I want to say that what
I want to say on that, and I said, I hear that a lot is that,
like, even if wide receivers are mispriced, there's no way to
exploit it. Like, let's take this all the
way to the extreme. Like, imagine we get, you know,
room, 2025 wide receivers are literally going with the First
48 picks in the draft, right? Are you saying that like then I
shouldn't be taking the running back one and running back to
over, you know, the wide receiver 24 and 25.
When I'm at the, you know, the two, three turn.
Like I just don't buy the argument that like drafting wide
receivers and chasing them up. As far as possible is like some
perrito like Optimal strategy that has no counter to it.
Like at a certain point the bets at wide receiver are worse than
they are at running back and like I get that you have You
need more water sewers and running backs, but like, I don't
know. I just want to like maybe I'm
getting overly angry about this point, but like there is a
breaking point of this wide receiver exterior with.
There's a theoretical breaker has to be a Breaking Point.
Like, you can't just say, like you gotta keep chasing them up,
chasing not face them up. Like, okay, maybe we haven't
cracked like, I'm open to the argument that like maybe we
haven't corrected yet, or this is appropriate, correction.
But like I fully reject the argument that like you just keep
chasing them up, no matter, no matter how they go like that.
That's me. It does make it tough for those
like because like, if you're okay if the wide receivers are,
you know, as as the market chases them up by definition,
everything else is getting pushed down and so it's like
you, it's not just that, you know, you went in and you got
the running back, one in the running back to, but you might
be competing against guy, was the running back five, in the
running back. Six, it much much, much better
prices than you. And he's got the wide receiver
Firepower so that's why I think it is.
Yeah, it does. It is more complicated than than
just like, you know, I've got the running back one and I got
an amazing price. It's like, yeah, but so does the
Rama guy got to run back? 5 has an even more amazing price
and he's going to beat you at wide receiver.
So it's I think I mean look I'm drafting plenty of running backs
early. And last year I was I think 0
running back was my heaviest strategy was basically tied with
here running back. I don't know.
I But I'm not doing a ton of your running back starts right
now. So, I do agree that like the
market is different than last year.
We should probably be attacking it differently, but, you know,
when you take When you go running back, running back
running back. And your first wide receivers
Tara McLaren, which is an actual thing.
That happened to me this weekend.
It does feel like I've this I might have better things to do
for the next 30 minutes. Yeah, it doesn't feel I'm not
saying yeah, definitely doesn't feel good.
But I don't know, man. Like you you you need some
things to go right? We need you need things to go,
right? And every draft you do you hit
this year's A Jones and round 13.
You hit on McLaren all of a sudden, you know, you're in a
good spot, right? Like get it gets thin like it
gets. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah. Yeah it does is thin.
Yeah, not bad. I think the reason to do it
right is that the upside at running back is unmatched like
you can't. This is like the whole legendary
running back concept is that you're not going to get from
like DK Metcalfe is not going to give you what an ultimate hit
from, you know, Josh eggs. Reminder Steve Saying Bruce
Hall, you know you're just not going to get the Tony Pollard
just gets fed. You're not going to beat him
with t Higgins because that's that type of season that Tony
Pollard with you know, Elite efficiency plus Volume, Plus
receiving. Plus they score a bunch of
touchdowns and he's the goal line back that type of season is
not available at, you know, a second-round make me.
You could say me it's available from Justin Jefferson
specifically but like or Cooper. Copper Jamar Chase but it's not
available from the wide receiver in that range and if you were to
happen to hit on two of those seasons and a function in a
healthy solid season, from the third running back, like you're
not going to match everyone at wide receiver.
You aren't but like that point like they're not going to match
you at running back. So there is this to me.
I mean I still think you really want to be focused on the upside
here probably more than ever, right?
And this is easy for me to say is the guy who writes about
running back upside there the rounds.
But your I think maybe it's more important than ever because What
can I get later in the draft? At running back, I can get
projected, volume more than I've ever been able to get in years
past James, Conner, Rashad white.
I mean, these dudes are like three down backs.
Like there's no, and there's no one on the fucking depth chart
who can challenge them right now, that might change, but
there's like, literally, no one like they're going to get all
the volume. That's not a profile that you
want to chase into the the sixth round or whatever, but you don't
have to seventh eighth ninth round for these guys.
Like that is if you're taking Ramon Dre because you don't
really believe in the talent but you think you know, he's just
going to get better. You're taking out your Heroes
because yeah, he hasn't been good, but he's going to get,
he's going to get the work. Like I can get going to get the
work later, but I can't get is going to wreak fantasy football
in 2023 later. So, that's if I'm gonna dive
into the running back value right now, I still want to be
very focused on the on the upside part of it.
Yep. And I got one one last bit of
running back propaganda to Pat's Pat's point about running back
upside. So this is Derrick Henry, the
guy who the stats nerves every year say you know, he's not
going to do it. He only relies on carries.
These are as half. PPR point for game finishes, the
past four years. 17.9 23 in that eight or nine game stretch in
2021 20.2 and 19. So you take the average of those
Four Seasons, that's 20 half. PPR Game over the last four
years, there have only been two individual wide receiver seasons
in the last four years. That have been higher than that,
it was Devonte in 2020 and cup 2021, besides that no wide
receiver in an individual season, not the average of their
seasons in an individual season is beating Derek Henry's,
four-year average in points per game.
So that's just a point of like, at some point if that if that
running back profile, and I'm not talking about Derrick Henry
this year, and is a gym just talking about Like the upside
that you can hit it running back if you hit that upside at
running back, like, good luck matching it with like the wide
receiver 15, that's all SEC. Yeah, that is the thing you
can't match. Yeah.
Now do Derrick Henry vs. Texans.
Love that comment. It's probably 35 PPR points or
something some ridiculous. Yeah if I honestly probably all
right first time anyone was Derrick Henry vs.
Versus Texans stacked stacked double-stacked Watson with Henry
coming back. Yeah, puts up once against the
Texans. Laughs.
And you get some twice and week 15 and 17.
He had no, it doesn't hurt. Yeah, Dave is actually David.
Hey, Jack to say that on the show.
You had to get it in want to show.
Okay. This show is called ATP.
Chasing weird. An hour and seven minutes and we
have not Chase neets ATP away. The ATP not got that.
I will say, keep watching the show, don't turn it off.
Not the most exciting, 80 people, movements this week,
we're talking Paris. Gamble again for some reason.
We're talking Brandon. Are you continuing to move up
for? I don't know what reason.
But let's start with Harris Campbell he is the biggest Riser
by ride EP, but by quite a bit, he's up 20 spots to pick 182
Jack. I'm curious how the ET our team
and you you are treating this Giants wide receiver situation.
What do you think of Paris Campbell?
What do you think of the Giants wide receivers?
Yeah, with the Giants receivers we We were kind of just like
throwing our hands up in the air and saying like, you know, we
don't really know who the guys are going to be.
We did move previously, we had parer, we had one Dale as the
slot receiver. Assuming it's, it's him versa.
Mondale repairs for the, for the slot competition.
We previously had one Dale ahead, but with, you know, his
injury question marks. And with the recent Paris
Campbell steam, which obviously has come without Lawndale being
healthy. We kind of moved everyone closer
together. I do think, at this point, it's
gonna be Wanda or Paris Slayton, and Hodgins as the three to open
the season, but like, with high at their and with Rondell,
presumably work, Working his way back to full health.
Like I truly have no idea who is going to be the guy at the end
of the year and in the projections right now, I think
we have like four or five guys between eight percent projected
and 11%. And then we've just kind of bump
guys like they'll and high it up in there.
Upside case just because as a rookie he's that he has that
profile where he could smash at the end of the year.
How are you handling Shepherd? And Crowder you guys expect
those guys to make the team. We Have them quite a bit louder
reproject like everyone that's on the roster.
I could let me pull up the exact order.
We have, we have these guys in right now, we have famous
encounter, very low, we have Shepherd, kind of trailing the
first for of Slayton Hodgins. Juan, Dale, and Paris, Campbell.
And then we have Jamison Crowder's as almost a non-factor
really Yes, Shepherds. The one, we're like I want to
treat Shepherd, like he doesn't exist, but man, if he's healthy,
like even coming off a torn Achilles, right?
And this one is the Kelly's. Yeah, so what?
But he tore his Achilles came back last year and they actually
played him a lot and he looked good, right?
And then he toilets are. Well yeah.
So my point being is like, when he's healthy the team, plays
him, even with this news coaching staff, they played him.
So, he's the guy where I'm like, man, does Hodgins like, get cut
because Shepherd makes the team or Something like I don't need
to go through the Hodgins thing again because I actually like
audience. I've been taking Hodgins, but I
just have that in the back of my mind, like to me the the ante
Hodgins case, at this point comes down to Darren Waller.
And Gretsch has been talking about this.
A lot is that Darren Waller is probably going to get split out
wide some and I've seen some of that in in some of the, you know
athletic reports and talking about him moving around, it's
played about 20% of a snaps out wide historically.
And you would imagine it kind of plays like the X wide receiver
spot, which is Hodgins primary role so that that worries me a
bit, maybe I'm overconfident, but I do not think Hodgins is
getting cut. I think Hodgins is making the
team. So I'm not worried like and and
if you look at the contract on Shepherd, they can easily move
on. They can easily given to him.
Yeah, of Hajj, like Hodgins held down that spot for them and gave
them some stability at the end of the year.
Yeah, I would be kind of shocked.
If they cut Hodgins and to keep Shepherd, I think they could
pretty easily, you know, keep Shepherd on speed dial and just
go with Hodgins into the beginning, the year.
Because who's signing Shepherd? Yeah, that's fair.
I just make the point of that like, he's been on the team for
a while and last year they played in when he was healthy.
But I agree with you it's probably like one of these
things where I'm baking and like, a 10% probability in my
head or something and like I'm overthinking it but too hot, I
think. Hasn't she wanted.
I'm going to jump to the fallers.
Here you mentioned high at Jack, he's down, 12 spots, the biggest
Faller and yeah, you mentioned the up, upside case, or him like
sometimes I wonder if guys like Hyatt we kind of punish them for
going below expectations in the draft.
When in reality, those like expectations kind of British
like in fantasy Twitter's head and like it didn't really exist.
Like he stole third round pick. He had a good production profile
given it was kind of gimmicky. And in Tennessee, the dude went
for 6, 2007, and five touchdowns worse, Alabama.
Like, I almost wonder if he was like the sleeper prospect that
didn't have first round buzz and he ended up going in the third
round. We kind of be like excited about
him and like a Marvin Mims type way but the fact that like he
was supposed to go on the first down and then went to the third
were like punishing him for it. I mean it's still wide open
depth chart in New York and he has like Elite athleticism,
pretty good production. So yeah curious what you guys
see for the offside case with Hyatt starting with you Jack.
Yeah I mean I think the upside case is that he's like the wide
receiver one at the end of the season and probably secondary
option. Besides while I mean the reason
for, I think the reason he's falling is because of those
reports that he's playing with the third team offense.
But I don't think that, you know, given that he's a
third-round rookie in June with a bunch of guys who've been in
the league for a while. I don't think that that's super
surprising. We had high it I think as
Overvalued when he was going via earlier a few weeks ago, but now
we and we haven't. We docked him a little bit just
kind of keeping Pace with the market, but we are now above ADP
on sale and Hyatt because I don't think that like the recent
reports are that, loadable really Pat.
What about you? I know you were also kind of a
similar position. Are you now in Moraine on Hyatt?
Now, that is falling. I mean, I think the fact that he
was talked about as a potential first-round pick and then went
into the third round is a like I'm major like, you know, you
shift your evaluation of a guy when he when he is like oh this
guy could be a first-round pick, like gives a flowers was a
third-round pick. I would feel quite a bit
different about him. So I've been sort of surprised
that this hasn't happened sooner that we haven't seen.
Hi tumble to me. This feels like a Correction and
I'm willing like okay, if Hodgins was a 13th round picks
Layton was a 14th round pick. And you could get high at 177, I
would be taking High it a lot but I still get it.
Like he's still like there with you.
There's like a part of the draft that's now basically reserved
for Giants wide receivers and they're all go together.
And so I don't, I don't think he's my favorite still, he's a
third-round rookie. He was very Draw.
I mean this guy was you know, kind of a deep threat out of
this lot out of this gimmicky offense.
He's a one-year wonder he's in early declare but he's a
one-year Wonder. I mean I could see him doing
very little this year. I could also see him emerging as
the clear deep threat and displacing Darius Slayton and
looking like, you know, a Smash in the late rounds but is not
someone that I'm trying to be super overweight on right now.
Like if I want You know, really cheap, third, round wide
receiver. I can get Josh Downs now in the
last round. Almost seventeenth eighteenth
round Josh Downs. So I'm kind of going more there
for my free. Third round wide receiver.
You can get Cedric Tillman completely for free in the third
round. I mean can he this place done
people's Jones at the end of the season on the outside, like I
would say those are like pretty similar likelihoods.
Hi, it's got a better chance of displacing Slayton.
Then Tillman does it displacing down people's Jones?
I guess. But like, I don't know, you're
just like betting that one of these third rounders gets on the
on the field and score some touchdowns in the right week.
I think and I have to pay a premium still on high relative,
the other third rounders with Hyatt and how you mentioned that
there's a range where all the Giants wide receivers go.
I definitely agree with you. They like I think there's a
chance he does nothing this year, but like you mentioned
there's a chance that by the end of the year, he's the clear wide
receiver, one and early, clear maybe deep threat is a better
way to put it. But when isn't that?
Like he's probably has a lower chance of being, any of being
like anything, then Isaiah Hodgins, but wouldn't like that
profile of having that upside be significantly better than
someone like Isaiah Hodgins. We're talking about guys late in
the draft because like, what do you think hajin ceiling is?
I guess because I think he has a pretty good chance to be on the
field. A good amount and be like, Find
player, but I think Jalen Hyatt has more upside for sure.
But maybe that's me just falling in love with the unknown of like
a rookies range of outcomes. I mean, I think Hyatt probably
has better odds of being like you know, a really impact player
down the stretch but the issue with with high it is that he
doesn't really profiles like an Diamond robberies, just going to
learn a ton of targets, you know?
Once he gets out there like he's more he's Daniel Jones deep
threat which isn't like a particularly exciting archetype
and then compared to Hodgins like I think Hodgins could his
upside to me is that he's the Giants wide receiver, one all
season. And with Darren wall or on the
field that's like less appealing than it even would have been
last year, but that's essentially, it's like, he's a,
you know, he's like equivalent to a guy you can get in like a
seventh round and you're getting in the late, the very late
rounds which isn't like the the massive massive hit, you know.
He's but I think these prices I think Hodgins can be essentially
a best ball League winner. Yeah.
So my approach to may be summarized like I don't know I'm
taking all these guys. I'm taking like yeah I'm taking
all these guys, not not Campbell so much for me right now.
Okay, I have I have mixed gambling, a little bit, but if I
was to rank or like my exposure, I'm going to be most Overexposed
to Slayton then Hodgins and high.
It will probably be tied next for me.
And then I'll probably have a little bit of Paris and I'm
pretending one. Dale doesn't exist, that's
another conversation. Well, I was too, but But hey,
he's going cheap now. I'm starting to mix modeling
again. Okay, I'm fine the end of season
upside. I mean he he can displace Paris
Campbell in the slot and you know second-round pick of theirs
last year if he's healthy Yeah, it's just the archetype of like,
it's our top of a guy and an offense, where I don't see a ton
of upside for the slot guy, which may be should be why I
shouldn't be taking any Campbell either.
But anyways, my overall point. Like, I'm okay, if you want to
make cases for any of these guys, like, I've just heard
people saying like just, you know, it's like the same thing
of like the Patriots running back thing, back in the day.
People just like, don't waste your time with the Giants wide
receivers, just don't take any of them.
It's like, if you're giving me some of these guys are going to
be the starting wide receivers and the Giants, but then of the
year and there. Totally free.
Like I'm like I'm taking them and I think there's a chance
that, you know, in a Dave offense, Daniel Jones has a leap
in year 2 and they passed more. We saw that in the playoffs a
little bit against the Vikings, they had a higher password, ever
expected. I think there's upside in this
passing offense and, you know, it could be that these guys are
a waste of time. But at their prices, I think
taking stabs and all of them is, is a pretty good approach where
you guys out on these quarterbacks.
Because to me that's the big Thing is that?
So I'm my second, highest draft a quarterback right now is
Matthew Stafford and my fifth, highest draft a quarterback is
Daniel Jones. So I'm taking a lot of these
wide receivers but it's because I think Stafford and Jones are
both really undervalued. So, you know, I'm only 11
percent on Dan Jones. I'm pretty spread out at
quarterback. I have 12.6% Stafford, so it's
not like I'm like absolutely hammering either guy but it does
put me in a position where I'm like I know there's points on
these. I know there's points on the
Giants because I just dropped it down to Jones or I know there's
points in this week, 17 game because I drafted Matthew
Stafford. I'm betting on that game to go
off. I want I want the guys are going
to score those points. So I think for me some of my
optimism or my willingness to kind of go into the uncertainty
here, stems from the fact that I like this game.
I like these two quarterbacks that their cost.
I would be different if it was like just kind of out on.
Yeah, you know. On Jones at this price or
whatever Jack you targeting either of these offenses are
both of them. I like the Giants, a lot more
than the Rams, the Rams. I think it's just scare me with.
Like I think they could just like blow up in a bad way I
guess this, because the rosters, so devoid of talent, beyond
their above-ground Stafford cup and Donald.
So I don't really, I don't have much of the Giants Rams game
just because Cuz I feel like there's a lot of risk there but
I don't mind like the Giants offense as a bad individually.
Got it I have to just look at this.
Now I don't think I was many teams as you Pat but 40 teams,
post draft. Now I must have more.
Oh, I guess this is how saluting super Just 40 teams post that
can't be right? No, that can't be right.
I feel like sometimes exposure thing doesn't show all of your
teams have 100. Anyways, I have like fucking 300
pre-draft something disgusting. Anyways, in my sample teams,
whatever sample. This is 26%, Daniel Jones, 20%
Matthew Stafford. So, okay, so you're in.
I'm pretty in, on the Giants, I and I have a good clip of Waller
to. So I'm not always playing it
through. Receivers.
But I like Waller Alexa. Yeah.
Like Daniel Jones at this cost would have smashed last or maybe
not smash. But then a good pick last year
and they added a good bit of receiving Talent another year in
the system. I just, I think he has some
untapped upside, so they're behind and they want to do a big
contract. Like yeah, they're behind.
We have dimes 14 picks over ATP attr.
So I'm definitely in on him and I think kind of as it relates
It's to the Patriots running back metaphor, maybe.
And, and with Juan Del falling, Like Pat mentioned, maybe the
answer is just if. And like I said, we have these
guys. All projected, like, very
similar Target shares, people just to be upside cases a little
bit, just a account, maybe for Hyatt being the rookie having a
wider range of outcomes but maybe the answer is just like
take the cheapest guy and and I think it's a Sam's Point, like
Slayton is my favorite Giants, Receiver right now.
And he's, you know, going the latest of them.
So I think, yeah, I'm thinking about it Hodgins is my favorite
but I love sleeping too and I'm taking I am taking High,
especially correlated with the times that I'm taking hi-yah are
really when I have Daniel Jones mostly but you know, is it super
cheap? Bring back.
And then they in any given draft.
Any of these guys can be available in like the last round
like I just got Hodgins in the last round so you know these are
the most expensive. He's not expensive.
If, you know, and he will fall. Yeah, I think I want to hear
your thoughts on this because both you guys the like, I don't
necessarily love hold on. Do some short people are doing
the thing where you just grab a backfield and you're like, I'm
betting on commanders running back or whatever, but I don't
mind in this case. Being like, especially from a
portfolio perspective, I'm like I'm overweight Giants.
Wide receiver like Giants wide receiver Giants wide receiver
has a good year like I'm gonna have a good year.
Because I feel pretty good about slayton's making the team
Hodgins is making the team Campbell's making the team
Windows making the team. I feel pretty good about that
and hi, it's making the team Five Guys.
That I feel pretty good about making the team pretty good to
very good and so if I'm just overweight them as a group and
Daniel Jones has a good year but as I mentioned already betting
on being a Jones then you know it's like the way wide receiver
scoring happens the way this this probably not Acme's Ultra
concentrated offense like maybe maybe the right answer Slaton
but Juan Dale has the big week when you need it or whatever.
Sure. Yeah.
I definitely think it's a much different argument than grabbing
a whole back field because those guys are competing against each
other. I think a lot more whereas if
this passing offense just goes off with ankle Jones, then I
mean everyone's gonna Crush ATP or everyone can Maybe not.
Maybe not every one, but multiple of these guys can crash
ATP. Whereas it's a much harder for
Well guys in the backfield to smash, if you if you nail the
three wide receiver set in New York and Daniel Jones, say Dow
Jones doesn't have that going to be here and Paris Campbell's the
starting slot and he gets like 600 yards and four touchdowns.
That's good in the eighteenth round.
Like that's awesome. So it's like it's like, you
know, that's the thing. The price makes this such a good
pet my opinion. Where, if you say, I'm going to
go all in on the Chiefs wide receivers.
I don't like hate that, is it? Take like, if you want to do
that, I understand the logic for, but that can really hurt
you. If you're taking a bunch of
toning, the seventh, even a bunch of sky and you know,
tempies in the 10th. Exactly, right.
That can, that can really start to hurt you.
Whereas, you know, I I take advantage on stack and I attack
on two of these guys at the end and they are just not that good.
Okay. That is my 17 18 round picks
like that. I'm fine with that.
If they're so cheap that I think you can go.
I think you can go Hyatt and Slayton and just be like, I have
their deep threat like you know, there's again, I wouldn't want
to do that if I wouldn't take like I although I actually
probably have taken Rishi rice and Sky more just hope they
don't play the exact same role, but if they do play the exact
same role of one of them is a bus.
Like that's a burning a tenth round.
Pick to find, you know, like some okay production out of slot
and Kansas City's, probably not going to be good but burning
like an 18th round. Pick to get, you know, between
your sixteenth and eighteenth round picks, like a usable wide
receiver is I think like, fine they give you if you hit on one
of your 16th or 18th round picks.
Fuck. Yeah.
So if I'm putting them together and I've increased my odds of
one of them hitting significantly I don't know I
kind of got into it. Yeah that's a good Trend are
Jack's already have something else add there.
Oh yeah I was just going to say like I don't think Hyatt and
Slayton. I think it's unlikely but I
don't think it's like 100% that if Slayton does, if High it goes
off then it means late in his dust.
Like if Hodgins gets hurt maybe both of those guys are on the
field a lot, you know. Maybe it's a little bit harder
with Paris and Mondale because they might be more confined to
the slab but with the outside guys especially like if Hodgins
goes down and high it flashes early in the year and Slayton is
you know still adequate and like those could be the three guys.
So I don't think that it like they They do they are I think
maybe negatively correlated for playing time but it's not like
so crazy that both of them could be on the field depending on
what happens. Yeah.
Right. Because High could play in the
slot or yeah something goes wrong with Hodgins I think
Hyatts Heights profiles so weird that it's so hard to project him
to a specific role in the NFL. I think he's like most likely as
Z or slot but like you can see it's Layton at The X and hide at
the Z in some games of Hodgins is injured, what?
Ever, like it's not something that's impossible.
This is also this is Brian table here, okay?
Like What if they're running for wide receiver sets?
Yeah. What if they're running three
wide receiver sets but you know Waller split out and is actually
basically a fourth wide receiver for the purposes of that you
know. So it's put out in the slot so
it's like you could get a number of these.
The other thing is that we talk about Hodgins as the axe and
stuff, he played a fair amount of a snaps in the slot last year
and so the idea that like he's not like Michael Gallup, who's
just like George leagues. Exact same thing, every single
snap. And in fact there are very few
players like that most players move around to some extent.
So yeah, I think Jack's right on there where it's like, you could
This is so ambiguous that you know and there's probably points
here and maybe maybe pick two guys.
Do you think are the exact same and like Hyatt and Slayton and
then turns out? They're not.
They're not the exact same multiplying.
Yeah, let's talk. We hit a bit on the Chiefs, I do
want to talk Sky more because he has risen pretty steadily over
the past couple weeks, there was a point where him and Rishi rise
for going. Pretty close round.
Pick 130 sky is now up to around.
Pick 15 pixels, right pick. 115 up five spots over the past
week. Jack what, what other?
What are you doing? What is he our crew doing with
these? These Chiefs wide receivers and
specifically Sky more. We're below the sky right now.
He was one of the hardest ones for us to project.
So right now we have a pretty low base Target share, but I
think he is our single biggest difference in our base Target,
share, and what we're projecting his ceiling.
I could share and we bumped his odds of hitting those ceiling.
That's healing but we're still behind but I think he's like a
tough guy for to just like, put a number on projections wise
because if he it's kind of like binary and they like if he gets
that role like he's going to be a good bet but the odds of him
hitting that role or like pretty unknown.
So I personally don't mind sky at ATP but we're pretty.
T behind on him right now. If that makes sense.
Where are you? How you guys handle like?
Tony because he's Justin others. Massive uncertainty.
Yeah, he's kind of similar. I personally don't like Tony.
But I think let me check where we are.
Exactly, yeah. We're slightly below ATP but not
as much below as we are on Sky. We have them with the highest
Target share obviously of the Chiefs receivers, but probably a
good amount below where we'd have them.
If Stuff about you know the Chiefs love Tony, he's their
wide receiver one and he's going to be healthy and all that land
for the 10 steps. We have a we have them six on
the field for the first snap and then plays for more snaps.
Yeah we have Tony significantly Below in terms of Base
projection where he would be. I think if he goes out week one
and he plays, you know, I'm very high snap share.
What if he hits his ceiling projection, like what?
Like, how high Hi. Do you have that?
Like is he is he like a Once you turn type of value for you guys
or what? I don't think you'd get to the
ones who train. I would just kind of
guesstimating based off his ceiling Target.
Sure it would probably be like Third round pick.
I think sounds about right for the ceiling.
Yeah that does. Yeah the thing is with like if
it was like okay it's either sky or it's Tony and it's going to
be one of those two guys they're going to get a full route tree
that I'd be like okay they're both get bats but like it's just
not that simple like you had mvs organ around like they played
Justin Watson more snaps and Sky Moore and Tony last year you got
Ritchie James there. If you want even go Bring up
Justin Ross there so I'm just like, I don't know.
Like how is it can we narrow it even down to like, more of her
Stony? I don't think we can.
So that's why I'm just kind of like, well, yeah, because it's
not really more versed. Owning more more is the path
upside is he is Juju, but not playing as bad as you played,
especially the end of the season.
That's the upside case. You're just getting cheaper,
Juju and cheaper. Juju like stayed healthy, like
Juju himself. As Juju was almost a Hit.
So it's like it's not the biggest swing for the fences
pick but in a range of the draft word it's tough to find wide
receiver value. If you were to hit on a better
version of the juju play last year in the 10th round, you'll
be very happy I think but Tony it's like I mean, his range of
outcomes is, you know, it's like the slight Arbitrage version of,
like, Tyreke or it looks sort of like deante, Johnson, plus more
explosion. But, with Pat Mahomes is kind of
his upside versus, he literally played five snaps in the Super
Bowl, so he just like, might not play.
Yeah, obviously, they want him to play, but like, he could
just, he could be a, he could be kind of Miko Hardman, but even
more injury-prone. So on one thing on Tony and I'm
guys that are so ambiguous and confusing like this, I like
going to do a bit of the film analysis and Matt Harmon
reception perception recently broke down, Tony and was not
very favorable about his his separation.
I think sometimes guys and the point that that makes sometimes
is guys that have very like flashy movements like in an
individual route, they can make an absolute highlight reel.
You know, someone pretty, certa ankle like they break someone's
angles and they spent by him and that's what Tony can.
Do. But unlike a route by Route
basis, he's not a consistent like separator route Runner,
which I thought was, I thought was interesting, obviously, he
does get get targeted on a huge share of his rat is very
interesting because he gets his start for outrun is off the
charts. So you would think and you watch
him play you would think he, I say deante Johnson life because
it's like to me accomplishes. Two things is like a compass
that they both guys play on the outside more than people think?
I think now people realize deante Johnson plays on the
outside but for a long time, We started at such a little, a DOT
and Tony. Similarly, it's like, oh he must
be a slot. Only type of guy and both
players can play on the outside but they also draw a ton of
targets. So yeah, Dion's and Deonte does
separate. Got a does.
Yeah open Score loves him, Matt harm and always loves him.
I think the thing with Tony stats, it's always tricky,
right? It's back to the five snaps in
the Super Bowl joke. Like, yes, if you have five
routes in the game and you get two Targets on those routes,
your numbers are going to flash but what each of those are
screens, you know what percentage of those are more
like gimmicky targets that don't scale.
So a full route share. So I think it's I still think
there's a huge wide range of outcomes like and I think you
know, Matt Harmon would not dismiss his upside either.
I think it exists but it's like it's a pretty huge projection
for pick whatever. 71 overall by ATP.
Yeah, that's what I was about. How much the upside is because
the up because I mean it does feel high.
Yeah, Jacks are used either. I was just going to say I agree
that the upside like seems high even though we've never seen it
for an extended period of time. But for the reasons you
mentioned, I'm not really drafting Tony and the you know
the Chiefs are hyping him up but there was also a ton of fight
for Tony before the Super Bowl and then you know, we know what
happened there, right? So, yeah, I mean, I think it's
kind of interesting and I think that the market is adjusted
more, so this year than last year, or at least there's less
discussion about, it is like, my home is one MVP last year and
none of his receivers were good. So I don't think there's like a
need for like, any of these guys to like, smash ATP.
Like obviously there's a path but like, I mean, you know, I
don't think it's like, one of these guys is going to hit.
Like, there's a chance, like, none of them especially if they
do. The wrote the rotational stuff
they're doing. Last year was like Justin Watson
running 40 percent routes of Just Wind Sprints like these
random dudes coming in and just stealing like a little bit of
Route. It really adds up to like hurt
everybody, right? Like maybe I'm Jeff Ross might
make the team which yeah is goes to your point here of rotating
these guys like Defrost makes the team.
He's not going to play a ton probably but he's another Justin
Watson type or he may be split them to.
Yes, yeah, exactly. So, which is back to my Chiefs
wide receiver stance. I'm going to be heavily
underweight, all these guys in non Mahomes teams and heavily
overweight these guys Mahomes, teens, because I'm just trying
to, I'm trying to think the, the stack in the playoffs.
And one of these guys does go off because I think on a weekly
basis, these guys can still certainly have their taken Tony
with, with moms. I have to like I have to like
gag a little bit when I do it but I am I am still getting
there. Yeah, with Mahomes man, I don't
know why not. No, I Pizza probably smarter.
It'll take them and I'm and I'm doing the dumb thing but I just
I the gags a gag to harden like that.
Yeah. You gotta pick someone else
because you're throwing up. Yeah, he gagged radar screen.
Okay, let's I gotta be honest, some of these ATP movements I'm
like I don't even know what to talk about.
I you because maybe the other interesting one where he's
continuously moved up. Yeah.
Yeah I don't think I you can Keenan are the two interesting
ones here because they kind of point to the period of the draft
season that we're in which if I had to guess, I'd say right now
through the next, like two weeks, maybe is going to be the
most wide receiver heavy. That they are He gets and these
two guys, I think when I'm sitting in the, if I have a pick
like that the 503. And I Uke's not there, I'm
crushed. I'm actually crushing because
it's like II. Don't like taking Chris Godwin
and I'm like, very overweight course, got one.
Because I just don't like, they're gone.
Like, okay, I did, Sam told me I should take two running backs in
the first three rounds, but now I've got two wide receivers
through four rounds and Brandon, are you just went and Chris
Godwin's? My wide receiver.
Three Like that walking blows. I hate that.
I think the Buccaneers are gonna be terrible and I don't think
Chris Godwin's as good as all the other people that I hang out
with think so. I just, you know.
Yeah. I like, I iook, but I think the
market is kind of, he's like, starting to.
I just think there's that that real need for wide receiver.
Like this is almost I use rise is probably because like Chris
olave is rising and Demonte Smith's Rising a bit like that's
what's causing this I think and then And Allen is also like
indicative. I think this real struggle of
what to do on the three four turn, because that's another
spot where you kind of want to come up with at least one wide
receiver there. Ideally, so keen and I think is
kind of moving up and he's kind of testing because it's like a
Wonder like if you you know right now is the first time that
that him getting cut is like not baked in, even one percent into
his ATP. It seems like it's taken a while
for that's it. Go away.
Yeah, I agree. It's what are your thoughts Jack
on? I guess starting with with I you
about his I think he's risen like I don't know 15 spots in
the last month or so for no apparent news driven reason,
maybe it's pretty but yeah, you guys know he's been tearing up
minicamp glowing reports at him in Camp.
Yeah, he wasn't and I think like the MVP at OTAs but I feel like
he's done that like every year to be honest but I'm I am with
Pat. I don't love, I okay this price
point. Wendy bow is healthy last year.
For whatever reason this like sticks out in my mind.
We were like, so unsure what to do?
I'm deeb oversee you when both of them were healthy and then
Debo ended up just like not dominating and targets, but he
had a healthy Gap over basically everyone else.
So I kind of think, like going into this year healthy Debo.
I would prefer him pretty easily like significant.
I think there's a significant difference between the two Ooh,
so much so that like, I am not overly interested in and I you
catch his price continues to rise.
So that's kind of where I'm at with iOS because they're gonna
be such a run-heavy offense. The Purdy news is obviously good
for that passing offense. But, but even with that, like, I
think there's this, I don't think I use Target chair is
going to be massive enough to edit ATP.
Override like the the lack of overall targets that are
available and that's kind of how we're projecting it right now.
On Keenan Allen. I actually do like him quite a
bit. We have the treasures offense
just like absolutely absurd like significantly almost out of the
pack in terms of plays per game and then they're going to pass a
ton and Keenan Allen even last year was learning targets at a
high clip. So I get the a As concerns.
But I think that like this offense as a whole is, I guess
maybe the opposite of the 49ers in terms of there's just going
to be so much past volume to go around.
I'm kind of just buying everyone and I know that the market has
that price thin and that's why they're going so early.
But I like Keenan Allen a quite a bit weary on a Mike Williams.
I can give you the exact underwear ahead of him to, I
think we're ahead of all the charges.
Actually a bit below Johnston. But yeah.
I like I like King and end like I've like, I like Mike Williams.
This you're fine. And I feel like I'm kind of like
a little bit on an island there among like people, I respect and
stuff. So I'm glad to hear you say that
because I just feel like this Dolphins could put up a bunch of
points and it would, they were pretty dysfunctional last year
and Williams had a second straight season of over one
point nine yards per hour on like, He does he does a very
specific thing, right? He doesn't really separate, he
jumps high, catch the ball falls down and hurts his shoulder but
he does that thing. Well yeah I definitely heard
some shoulder pretty well. He's probably there there was
like a stretch where I saw some tweets about like as Mike
Williams actually healthy because there was no news but I
think there was a report like a week ago that said he's fine and
with that I'm basically back in on Mike Williams well because
last year they were keen and microphones are two three.
Index. Like I get that Quinton Johnson,
which should probably hurt them a little bit, but I think we
should be more excited about the Chargers offense this year with
Kellen Moore replacing whoever there though she was.
Last year, I'm liking the Lombardy and are not.
Yeah. And that's with wide receivers
being significantly priced up. So I guess there's age concerns
on Canaan and injury and Quentin concerns on Mike Williams.
But in an environment, where Riders here is growing
significantly earlier. ER and they're going
significantly later in. What looks like a better Senate
situation offensively? You know, it's an interesting
dichotomy I guess, although there are real concerns on
Keenan Age and and Mike Williams injuries.
Yes, for Keenan's age. It's kind of just like until he
shows me, he can't do it anymore.
I'm not going to be too worried about the age and I get that
eventually, I'll be wrong on that.
But like, I don't know he's not someone who relies on
athleticism and he's never alone.
When I've let it Sizzle, yeah, he's never been particularly,
like, I think people kind of slap the injury-prone label on
him, because he got hurt last year and then early in his
career. That it was a stretch, Cruise
injured a bunch, but he had a huge stretch of his career where
he was never injured, like 2018 through 2021 where he was
consistently out there all the time.
So I like comparing, I you can Kenan, I would say like I think
Keenan's appropriately priced within the wide receiver
rankings. I think I don't hate.
Are you by any means? But like Yeah, I don't know.
It starts to feel a little Rich at 52 for me but, you know, I
don't hate it. I don't hate it either.
I just think I'm more bought in on the Keenan rise and I you
grass. No, I am too but that is one of
the things to kind of go back to the running back thing for S,
like that's what you're finding yourself.
If you take, you know, wide receiver running back running
back here, kind of locked into brand, I you or Chris Godwin a
reaching for Marquis Brown, you know, it's just it's tough.
That's a really Tough range of the draft at the, the 45 turn.
You used to be able to more reliably get Cristian Kirk.
They're quite also don't love but like I know you guys are
pretty high on Kirk right jack. Yeah.
I like her good amount. Yeah.
So that's a, I don't know. Just right now.
It's just like, it's just a difficult.
That's one of the most difficult spots of the of the draft right
now. I think that 45 turn.
Yeah, it's tough. It's funny because like, I
almost want like sometimes in my mind I kind of want to skip like
I you can Godwin and just go to like pit man.
I can, you know, I can talk myself in the upside with
Pittman a little bit. Maybe Anthony Richardson is
good. I get that.
The passing volume concerns are scary there.
Tyler Lockett can just do it again.
What? She's always done for seven
years in a row, down to Johnson's, going to draw 150
targets for the fifth year in a row, right?
I don't know. I almost wonder if like, I want
to skip skip the Godwin pick. As I used to be a nun.
God, when I think I'm over exposed to them, but the point
you made about the box and every every day, I'm just like, man,
why am I taking box wide receivers like you also Doug
doesn't have a great Target, share it hurts for our own.
Like it's all it's very volume driven with God.
When recently I mean part he's coming up in 20, CL last year.
So you're hoping he bounces back with that.
But yeah, I don't know. I'm you look at any, anybody in
the timber? They offense last year though,
it was just volume driven, right?
Like that. Offense was so inefficient, but
just ran a shit ton of plays. So, I don't know if that was
him, I don't know. I think the offense was kind of
broken last year, but it's not going to get fixed, that's gonna
go away horse. Yeah, it's gonna get weird
thing. Don't they have the guy from
Seattle. This year.
Now is there. No.
See, like No one wants to talk about this because it seems
insane because Richard white cannot run the ball, but like
could they just run the ball more?
You know? I mean and it probably relies on
Sean Tucker making the team and being okay or them signing Zeke
or something, but like I don't know maybe latavius Murray gets
cut and they signed him and then they just run the ball way more
than we think. Yeah.
I think that's interesting to not as much because of the o.c.
but because I I think there's been like two consecutive
seasons of the Bucks saying we want to run the ball more and
then they haven't and maybe that's just like the Tom Brady
factor and and now that they don't have, you know, the goat
calling the shots all the time that they actually do.
Try to establish it a little bit.
They question, I guess would be, how much are they able to do
that? If they're as bad as they
expect, and then they kind of get forced into throwing, but I
do think they're going to try to run the ball more than they have
in previous Seasons. But we've seen right there were
three teams last year You said, you cannot force me to throw the
ball Bears, the Falcons and the Panthers at the, in the back
half and they're all terrible. But the coaching staffs two of
the, three of them kept their jobs.
You know what I mean? I think that like
self-preservation here for Todd Bowles, you're going for the 101
in the real life NFL draft, but you got to get it without
getting fired and so you don't want, you don't want to get
embarrassed. So I do think most likely
scenario, you know, the most likely outcome here for this.
Team, they throw a ton because it can be terrible.
But I do think there are some like reasonably likely scenarios
where they actually like play Panthers ball and try to run the
ball a lot. And maybe again they probably
need to sign somebody cause I don't think White's this guy,
but they are able to run the ball fairly effectively in a
high-volume way. And then they, they play action
off of that, which is, which is how I would want to use Baker.
You tell me after, like, drop back like 40 times with Baker.
Mayfield. No, thanks, I'm going to get
fired. Yeah, that that the they have to
sign someone is interesting and I kind of want to transition
that to to a Dalvin cook conversation, the box kind of
make a lot of sense to Dalvin cook destination.
Look I don't know the cap situation for them so maybe I'm
wrong about that but I guess a broader Dalvin cook question
because he's a he's a tough guy to price.
I actually thought he would fall a lot more than this.
I'm kind of shocked, he's still hovering around pick 84.
I like a lot of other running backs in that range better.
But Jack, do you are Guys, like, how do you guys even treat like
free agents? First of all, you see, are kind
of curious and that and second, how do you view Dalvin cook at
pick, 84? Yeah, so we project them for a
carry and Target share, and then kind of just assumed League
average efficiency. That's, that's how we do it.
And we also have Delvin significantly below where he
fell on that. I'm also like pretty surprised
that he's he's only here right now.
Now, and we with the free agents, I think we react to the
market, more than we would. Otherwise, like, if all the in
physique is falling, like we kind of just try to not have.
Yeah, that different of takes on the fridge.
And guys, if that makes sense, right or wrong, I'm not really
interested in the oven at his current ATP.
We don't know where he'll sign Maybe.
Box. But I guess that depends on how
much he wants to play on a terrible team.
Dolphins would be, I guess, a fun spot.
But it feels like every day he doesn't sign with the dolphins
and maybe makes it more unlikely, he signed with the
dolphins because they were rumored immediately.
And then if that was such a match, then I guess, why are we
still waiting? If that makes sense, but I'll
fans want. Yeah, the Dolphins on quickly.
I just don't think. I think I think the Dolphins
like that is so low, like, they shelled out like two-and-a-half
guaranteed each to moster and Wilson two and a half per per
player, they took a chain and what the the early third or mid
third round, like it doesn't unless cook is willing to pay
for pennies. It just doesn't make any sense
to me that I am. You would be willing to pay him
what he wants, like 8 million or whatever, right.
Like it seems like a pretty big over spend at running back.
So sorry, I cut you off Jack but I just don't I think that Miami
things like unlikely, which is maybe against the market.
Yeah, that's fair. I mean if you don't I guess I'm
curious. If you don't think it's the
Dolphins or I don't mean you didn't mention the Broncos but
maybe the Broncos to like dude do you think he's gonna sign for
like a like a bucks type team, where he's in line for a bunch
of work but you know they don't really have a hope of competing.
I guess it's kind of guess work at that point.
Yeah. I don't know.
Yeah, I kind of do think if he's prioritizing money, then and
this is way down narrative street, but that narrative, that
patches gave of, you know, the Bucks coaching staff, not
wanting to be embarrassed and at least lose and be closed and
games. I think they can sell themselves
on like a star of years pass and Dalvin cook and maybe even sell
the fan base on selling some jerseys.
I don't know who else and, you know, Tampa's selling a bunch of
jerseys with Baker Mayfield and Kyle traffic quarterback.
So that could be one where, like, Doesn't make any sense,
really? From like a real-life fit, like
adding a running back when you're a terrible team but I
could see that one. And then I think the other ones
are just, like you mentioned, Broncos, jets these teams that
have early injury, early season, injury concerns at running back.
I think. Dalvin maybe is holding out hope
that one of those teams gets gets desperate, if the running
backs recovery doesn't go to plan.
But yeah, besides that, that's the thing.
That's why I think is ATP. Should be much lower like I do.
See a ton of upsides and they're like, what is the upside
scenario? Where you feel good about Dalvin
cook at pick like 60 said because I think you need to have
some upside scenario where it's worth the risk of taking a pic
84 and I just don't really see that.
I I guess it's Miami but I don't know.
I don't think that's very likely Patti really upside or Jack if
you have a sorry I was just going to say I we maybe have
toggled it a little bit but our Delvin projection right now is
is almost where it was like from our gut reaction when he first
got cut and we have him like 120th overall, which I think is
a lot more fair. Yeah, I have him.
My rank is, are like bacon ATP, a fair amount but I think he's
one of the players. So I just said, do not bacon
ATP. I have them at 96th, which is,
you know, still quite a bit of a for you guys.
But, you know, a full round below his actual ATP.
You know, I also don't move the market like he's ER, so I try to
stay a little bit more Market a line.
But yeah. So I have him.
I just, I just don't get it. I completely agree like what
like him signing with Tampa Bay would be maybe a best case
scenario at this point I guess the best case scenario.
And and it's not and who's excited about that.
Yeah, I wouldn't be all that excited about it but I guess the
only way I could really see his ATP moving up is, if mixing
doesn't take a pay cut, they cut out I bring and Alvin that's
that's your path to upside because at that point that's a
good one. You're drafting pretty high.
That's like maybe I don't think you had go this high but yeah.
Mix-ins off the team Cooks there and it's just cooking treyvion
Williams and Chase Brown. Then I think that's like
suddenly I don't know third fourth round pick in years past
or something like that. So that is a pretty good.
Offside. Yeah, I think you would case may
be really tough actually, because I would still want to
take Gibbs over him, but I don't know that he would go behind
Gibbs. He might go, he might go ahead
and Travis etn. If if he were, if mixing were
cut and Dalvin cook were signed on the on the Bangles, I mean
The Syndicate. Anybody's role is like
regardless, what you think, it Cooks talent, that the
Cincinnati running back roll is just so, so, so so good like
Nixon. Mix.
It has pretty massive receiving fault will not massive but big
receiving volumes even though he's not the third down back on
the team. Like it's just an offense that
plays with Pace. They're going to throw a lot.
They throw the running backs, you get 60 or shh perceptions
last year. Joe Mixon were complaining, the
whole year about how he doesn't plan their towns like six years
old. He was displaced for some games
here on how to roll and then, yeah, it's just very valuable.
Yeah, I'm pretty heavy overweight.
Leonard, fournette. Right now because I think he's
sort of a no-brainer guy to bring in if they cut mixing
because I think Lenny would sign for like a mill.
Feel like, let's wearing a wedding ring baby.
So I don't know. That's, that's the one I'm
Dreaming on but but anyone who signs are mixing gets cut and
they signed someone else, he's, it's hard not to get a little
excited. Yeah, I have so much Lenny.
It's like I did this last year with Julio, which is funny
because you got your Victory lap screenshots when he signed with
the box and then he's had like 100 yards all season, but I'm
just taking for net and every draft, like, I don't care.
I want the upside. I don't, I don't see a scenario
where he doesn't play this year. So he's like, an 18th round
pick. Now, like I'm not literally
every not literally every draft, but I probably have like, 20, 30
percent or so, I have eight. I have 19 percent I've not yet
absent for now. So, I'm with you.
Yeah last last one here we haven't talked about Trey Lance
and maybe like two full episodes so he pops back up here on the
fallers chart. I'm curious Jack how you're
viewing? San Francisco quarterback
situation, the love. I think the market is like more
and more certain each day. That Purdy is the guy.
Hence I'm reaching Landry. Yeah.
My Lance's you're going out below.
Yeah. What are your thoughts Jack?
Yeah, I don't. Think it's like that much of a.
Like I'm very confident that it's pretty and they pretty much
said as much and every report in terms of his injury has been
optimistic. So I think there's a real chance
pretty start. Speak one and Trail Oz, just
irrelevant the whole year to be honest, so that's your surprise,
he's being drafted still. I yeah, I agree with that.
We've been low on Lance the whole the whole time and has a
deep. He's falling.
Lynn and we're still like way below.
I like I've is the out for him like a trade.
Like I don't really see. It doesn't.
I don't really see the path. To be honest.
If you if you want to draft a quarterback who's not going to
play this year. Just just take Tom Brady Davante
Adams stack that they're a lot more fun.
Yeah a lot more a lot more upset is actually more fun.
Yeah. Yeah.
It's at least a Kind of a Funny screenshot.
You take trait Lance just kind of like, sad.
Like what are you doing, man? Give it up now.
But I do. Yeah, I don't see the trade at
some point. I did like I think in the
superflex pre-draft stuff I was like, okay maybe there's some
land straight scenarios, like maybe the Titans, maybe the
Texans, the Texans were rumored to like be taking defensive
players, only in the first round.
I was like maybe there's some weird trade stuff with Trey
Lancer, he hasn't out. Now, I'm just like, I do not
like, who's he? It's kind of a big contract to a
number three overall pick like makes a decent amount of money,
like, who's trading for that. Also, I mean, pretty did tear a
ligament is elbow that Generally, we thought he was
going to be out for like 18 months.
He's a seventh-round pick. Who's only shown like half a
season of pretty impressive, but, you know, short-lived
Excellence. You have Super Bowl Ambitions
here, why wouldn't you keep Trail ants?
Like why the the logical thing for the 49ers is to roll into
the season with three cheap quarterbacks and just be like,
we're going to we're going to get production out of position
and we're going to win the Super Bowl.
I think it would be a little bit like You know, probably
undermines their goals to trade Trail ants this year.
I think he's easier to move off of next year and then you have
so much more information about who Purdy is after the year.
So I think the thing with Lance is that, like, he could even
hit, but I don't know that like if you get a couple really
strong weeks late in the season from Lance, you know, you could
definitely make the case that that's worth an eighteenth round
pick. But they have to be late, they
have to be in the playoffs, and you have to get there without
him, which is difficult because three quarterback builds are
generally not as good as advancing as to quarterback,
builds and Ike. If you have a, if you have a
Josh Allen team, are you really how how much you even need the
trail and Upside, you know what I mean?
Like, so you just kind of hard to even know, like how he would
help you without pretty, you know, re aggravating his elbow
early in the season and Lance starts all year and then he's a
smash. But, you know, you have I've,
I'm very vocally out on, on same howl for the most part, but I
took Howell last night because I took them at the 1812 and how
has a chance to start all year, I don't think he will but
Reading and I was reading some about Ron Rivera, Ron Rivera, I
think is pretty in on how so it's if Ron Rivera doesn't get
fired, they probably start howl. All year is my is my thinking
right now. I do think he's going to get
fired so I don't love that bet. But 1812 Ryan Tannehill could
start has a legitimate chance to Start.
All Season doesn't have the same upside.
Profile is Lance but you can get him in the eighteenth round,
Jimmy. Garoppolo what if his foots fine
doesn't have the same up, Sir profile at all but easily
stackable. Get him in the 18 at the 1812.
So, I don't know. I mean, you know, if Lance
starts all year, comparing him to saying, you know, you could
have gotten Jimmy garoppolo's and look super fucking stupid
because he's Russian quarterback but he's the odds of that
actually materializes feel so low right now.
Yeah, and I mean the, the fun thing with Lance is that if
party gets hurt, they could throw same darn old in there so
you have to be right, like it so many times.
Like it's so many things have to happen.
I think for a trail ants to be relevant and obviously the price
is low but like I don't think it's like you could, it's almost
like you're crafting a very specific scenario which I think
you could do about like every player in the top. 300 right so
I guess not that yeah maybe hyperbole but like is taking
Trail and set them from taking Marcus Mariota.
Now he is it isn't it's not really like the same--and very
similar actually the only gift Lance does play like he's going
to be so much better than Mariota but like it's, you know,
there's the I agree that there I don't know man.
The qv9 last year before he got, benched, I don't know.
But yeah. Now I hear you jack.
Yeah, but II mean I agree. I agree with the point, like, I
like it's, you're telling yourself such a story for Trey
Lance to be anything resembling relevant.
Yeah, by the way, almost and Arnold thing that's not just
like, I think we kind of had a joke about Sam Donald over trade
Lance now that's being reported by it by Adam schefter.
That's not just like a teepee chasing bet any day any more.
That's I mean, he's chapter was like, kind of speculating but
like, still, it's not like it should at least be taken to
acknowledge that it's, it's a real competition between Donald
and Lance. Even the pushback on the
Rappaport report. My eyes are, as I recall was
something like, hey, why would you, why would you discount tray
like that? Why would you rule out tray with
sort of the pushback? It wasn't That's insane,
Donald's, the quarterback three trays the locked in quarterback
to it was hey why would you why would you just assume that it's
Donald but that's to me I'm like well it could still beat Arnold
though they just want to see how it plays out.
So yeah, we're projecting pretty to miss around a game which I
mean there's a chance. He doesn't miss any chance.
He doesn't miss any time can see.
Mrs. Like two games three games, so we're just kind of like
guessing unless a game and we have the backup split 50/50
between Donald and Lance. I think like, Donald is very
lives to be the qb2. So what would you say the
difference is right now between Trail ants and Mason Rudolph?
Okay, that's 2. Plus T took it too far?
Go to back threes. Other words on my quarterback,
freeze, what's the difference between a duck, duck, Hodges,
and freelance. That's a quarterback for you
because Man should be I think he's a better pick than Trail
ants. No, no.
Oh man. Okay, I tweeted about it.
So let's cover this quickly, I'm sorry.
Sorry to keep you. So long Jack Tyree kill.
I thought this would be more of a teepee movement with the news
of him like slapping somebody on the boat or whatever the hell
that weird report was. But so this is just been a thing
for me. When I'm on the clock at pick
four or five this weekend. I'm just taking like CMC and cup
over Tyreke every time now because I'm like, it isn't as
ATP going to move down or like, isn't there some two-game
suspension risk or something? There I'm curious.
If you guys are baking any like sort of off the field risk for
Tyreke with this report we have not sorry I was just going to
say we have now right now but we're like Not sure what to do
really, which maybe is an argument in favor of making it
at least some risk. But like we're just kind of like
watching and hoping we get more info at this point in terms of
like how we're treating the projections side of it.
Pat thoughts. Yeah, my thing is that kind of
to be honest I like up more than he'll So and I've had I've kind
of flipped them around in the rankings at times because it's
like Hill has been so steadily above cop and I'm like, you
know, I don't want people not to have any Hill and so it's like,
but I I'm more, I'm more just taking cup, like I've been
taking cup over Hill enough to where I'm pretty overwhelmed
Wake up in a little under Way hill.
And so to me it was pretty simple to just go in and say, no
cups, 3, you know, cup is the better pick right now like cup
didn't slap someone on a boat and I don't know what the Yeah,
seriousness of, but it is but kinda already liked, cut more.
And I was, I was like, capitulating to the market a
little bit, which I think it's a totally fine thing to do when
we're talking about Hyper Elite players like this.
But what you want exposure generally to all of them.
But yeah, at this point outside McCaffrey Overhill to because
it's just like why not? Why not like McCaffrey's a great
pick to what I haven't done. Yet is bump up waddle but I
think that's the next thing I might do depending on on what we
start to hear about this. Have you guys bumped up w a
little you're just, you're just kind of holding steady for now
Jack. You're muted.
So, we haven't changed anything, but we're pretty uncertain.
So, may I like after this show, I'm probably gonna go back and,
like, the heat Source I can be like, Korean had some points
about like dropping Tyreke and bring a bottle.
Like, should we should we do this?
Like, where we don't really know?
Exactly. I haven't, I think I might move
up waddle, like one spot, and I, and that would be the first time
I've raised him, so I'm not, but yeah, but he'll to me, it's like
it's so flat from 225 is so flat.
Why wouldn't I just bump Hill down to the end of the tear?
Yeah. Yeah, that's fair and drag after
you slack Leone about grants once.
Make sure you slack them about my mischievous key points as
well. A lot of our Asylum.
Yeah, I'm sure he's gonna wanna know.
You guys should probably bump him from like 450 to 380.
Yeah. Yeah.
Now that makes sense. And yeah.
It's just like, I don't know when you're, when you're picking
between these amazing players and not even maybe go as far and
this is where I get if you disagree.
But I even get if you want to take AJ Brown Diggs Kelsey over
Tyreke right now. I don't completely disagree with
it just because I think there's a chance that like we get more
bad news in this and even if he doesn't get suspended his price
will fall. So yeah, I'm in like
wait-and-see approach as well. I'm not completely panicking.
I'm sorry. Where do you think that would?
If there was speculation? If the market started to be
nervous, where do you think he would settle?
Like if there wasn't anything like concretely, that's like a
Camaro situation from last year, right?
Like camara's, you know was never like a suspension was well
I don't know that we'll ever get to the point where like a
suspension looks as likely as it did for Camaro, you know?
Yeah, let's say the first part of this, the first part of like,
oh this we should start taking this incident.
Somewhat seriously, like do you think you could fall?
To the 111. Yeah, that's what I was going to
say. Like, we're CD and Garrett
Wilson Devonte are going right. I mean, because it's still hard
not to click in there, right? I mean, yeah, I feel like it
depends on how long the suspension like is rumored to
because for Camaros like six games and I think of Tyreke get
six games. Like he's gonna fall, a pretty
decent amount, but I feel like if it's two games, like that's
almost a slap on the wrist. Where would where would you take
him? If it was six games purely
hypothetical, we don't know anything.
Third round, Maybe. That's spicy but that kind of
makes sense because what we were taking d-hop when he had a
six-game suspension in what like the sixth seventh round last
year? Yeah, so Tyree kill probably
bump up two or three rounds from that full season at e Hagins or
minus 6 from Hill. Give me hell yeah.
I think I'm, I'm the biggest T. Higgins.
Bear in the market. So you probably don't want my
tea again Stakes. I might be Jack Higgins there.
Yeah, I think I'm actually back to Higgins more.
I think about it, but it's closed.
Like that's probably about worry, baby.
So that's the end of the second basically, right now.
Yeah. I don't know.
Anyways, we'll keep our eye on that.
It's been two hours, a little bit over, two hours.
Let's get into our favorite ATP values.
Jack, we do this on on every show, we have been kind of
playing a game or a try, not just like the best pics but the
players we think are going to rise the most by August like by
a percentage of ATP. So like if you picked Davante
Adams and he soared the pick-6, that would be like a huge rise
or you could pick someone late. He thinks going to soar a bunch
as well. So do you have anybody that you
think is going to be a great Closing?
One value? If you're taking them today on
June 26th? Yeah, I think I think Watson is
a pretty good value at quarterback right now with how
much quarterback ATP is up this year and rightfully so is the
elite guys just smash everyone else.
But Watson has you know it's been two years but he's had
years that are Not completely to the level of like a hurts Josh
Alan. But like definitely in that top
three or four quarterback range and you can get them right now
at qb9, and obviously, there's a ride range of outcomes, coming
off missing two years and not playing all that well, at the
end of last year. But, I mean, that level of
upside, I think is completely unmatched by pretty much
everyone else. And I think they're going to
throw a little bit more this year to now, that they have.
Have an elite quarterback or someone that they hope is Elite.
At least given what they gave up farming, what they pay them and
now that they I mean it's looks like it's probably just tub at
this point because they have thrown for, but I don't think
he's going to be as Korean hunt level involvement.
So they don't have the same running back Duo and they have a
significant upgrade at quarterback.
Like I think they're going to throw more this year.
So I think Watson is probably my single favorite bad on the board
right now. Nice.
It's guess I like it. Pat you've done for yet?
I'm assuming we have let me check my list.
I feel like someone did and I just didn't write it down but I
don't have a room that I don't have it written down.
Okay, that is only hurting if you know, pretty.
Yeah. All right, I'm doing pretty.
He's so like pick one eighty, I've taken him, I've done the
stacks and then I take him at the back half of the board.
I'll reach like a full 24 picks at ATP because I'm like, I
already did that, I did the stack and I I've been on record
saying, I don't really think you should be reaching quarterbacks
complete Stacks, but I do feel a little bit different.
A about it when it's if you've done like a triple stack, and in
this case, it might be like, you know, two of the receivers plus
Elijah Mitchell calling that a triple sec and then maybe like,
you know, a Datsun or whatever or whoever you have coming back
McLaren. There's no one else, right?
It's like your now to the point where quarterbacks really drying
up. So when in those late rounds,
sometimes I'll just reach and complete it plus.
I think that's where he's going to move up.
I think he's going to move up to that a full, 24 picks and settle
at the same turn. But one spot above because it
just kind of makes too much sense with where debose going.
And, you know, you can just kind of easily build around him.
There you are. You've used to fall a little bit
to that side of board. He doesn't, but kid'll kills
right there too, so you can easily go Debo Kettle and lock
up, pretty at that turn. I like that.
And I didn't have time to show this week but the, the San
Francisco Stanley. Tack the double stack.
Price always shows up is actually one of the cheaper ones
just because pretty so cheap and all the pass catchers are pretty
expensive. So I like that of being able to
bring along a late-round quarterback with some of the the
skill players. You take, you take early with
pretty and I'm talking about the 13/14 turn for the record.
Oh God. Yeah.
So to add quickly, I guess I focused on why I like Watson as
opposed to maybe the clv argument but I think you know in
training camp rolls around and everyone looks fantastic.
If we get those positive Camp reports on Watson and people
start thinking like what if DeShaun Watson is back to the
guy, he was three years ago. I think you could really see the
ATP start to rise because the last year is right for this is,
you know, a rightful. Reason but that's why he's going
as late as he is. So if we get those positive Camp
reports that DeShaun Watson looks like the W and he wasn't
2019 2020. And then people start connecting
the dots like in 2019 2020. Like his performance would have
been the qb3 last year, or two before whatever.
And then you could really see him, see him, start the rise
there? Well, yeah, like sometimes the
biggest hits of really obvious in retrospect and Watson.
I think will look extremely obvious and Retrospective, he
hits it. You know, in an environment
where we're chasing up huge quarterback Seasons from last
year into the early third round into the second round to start
BBM. If you can get DeShaun Watson in
the seventh round, even the sixth round and he's DeShaun
Watson. Again, I mean, it's just such a
like it's the perfect ATP environment to hit on a DeShaun
Watson returning to form and you know, then it's also like even
It would even be a good price last year, you know, if he were
to hit. So you just put the hit will be
will be outsized because of how expensive the other quarterbacks
are this year. Yeah, it's funny.
You mentioned that I've had that thought to pad of just like how
all these little look, but I almost almost feel like it's
gonna look obvious, either way. Like if he sucks is going to be
like, oh the guy who was out of the league for two years and
sucked. Last year sucked.
Again like what a shocker. But I agree with you if he looks
good. It's like such.
Yeah, yeah, I don't like like I'm just saying that people are
going to do the Prospective analysis, like they are either
either way but I agree with you, it's a very clean case.
Like you also look at some of his games last year where he,
you know, sucked and there were these crazy weather games where
I don't know, Jacoby presents, not doing better than Jean
Watson those games. I don't think so.
Anyways, someone I think I'm like, in my head.
I'm like, I'm overweight Watson but I'm actually not.
And so I am glad you mention of Jack and to fix that, So mine
for this week don't think it's been done is it's pretty simple.
Jacoby and Meyers pick 120 right now.
I think he's like by far of the wide receivers in that range.
Like he's got two good things going for him out of the water
receivers in that range. As a reminder, he's going
around, guys like Darnell muy Mooney, Romeo dubs, Zeta-Jones
Sky, more Odell Beckham, out of all those guys.
A, I think Myers is just More talented wide receiver than any
of those players and be. I think he's more likely to have
like a 90% route rate playing into wide receiver sets, then
all those players. I think in our heads we think of
Myers is this like slot only player but he actually played on
the outside quite a bit. Last year in New England, Las
Vegas, paid him a ton of money. I don't think the putting Hunter
Renfro on the outside instead of they might try think he's, which
would be one way that you really went on this.
He yeah, exactly. That's another one.
I just think he's too talented of water Steve.
Be going at, pick 120, I generally see.
His range is sort of a wide receiver DeadZone range, but I
really do like Myers there at pick 120.
Obviously, he doesn't have the upside of, you know, becoming a
huge Alpha Target earner with Davante Adams there.
But, you know, I think a lot of this lost biggest fund, is kind
of based on this Jimmy Garoppolo report, which I think is not
really news, and it was made out to be big news, because this
Clause is contract. I'm kind of fading all of that
noise. I just think I want.
A good wide receiver. Who's going to play into wide
receiver sets on a passing offense?
That should be competent in my opinion.
So, I like Myers quite a bit and think, you know, if some of the
Jimmy Garoppolo fears go away, if Renfro gets treated Etc, he
could be a pretty big Riser and go up to, you know, the
Courtland Sutton Michael Thomas range.
I think that's in his range of outcomes from a clothing line
value perspective. I think that's probably where it
should be. I like him to me, it's like, why
would you ever take Juju when you can get to go to Mars?
Yeah. Yeah, that's fair.
Alright everybody, thanks for joining us today.
Really appreciate everybody in the chat.
We saw all those messages just had to pick, Jack's brain today.
So sorry for not getting to all the questions, but really
appreciate everyone coming out and joining us today as a fun
fun discussion Jack, anything you want to tease that's in the
works. Establish the run over the next
couple weeks, nothing specific. But, you know, we'll have have a
lot of basketball content over the next couple months.
Some wedding related content if that's your thing too.
So, just just a lot of stuff that I'm pretty excited about.
But, yeah, thank you guys for having me on.
This was fun. Yeah, of course, at what about
you? What's going on at legendary
outside? Just had an article out this
morning. Looking at success rate up talks
for a few weeks about how I've been diving into Ethel next-gen
success rate metric. And looking at some of the right
of X in this article who performed very well on large,
sample sizes in that metric last year, including some guys who I
think, people are overlooking a bit Brian Robinson.
Get some love in there, he's treated like he's was absolutely
horrible. Sure did have three point, nine
yards per carry but Gibson had three point.
Seven yards per carry and faced eight men in the box of the way,
less way lower rate. So Brian Robinson get some love,
Travis etn, get some love few other guys, talking through the
kind of the stars in that metric.
Going to talk through some of the red flags that pop up for
running backs with big workloads last year there and that metric
in part 2 of the article series that I'm doing on this.
And then I'll have some of the be like small sample size guys,
who, you know, will try to parse whether or not, we should pay
attention to what they, what they did last year, all that
much. Awesome.
Looking forward to checking that out yet.
Go check out legendary upside obviously go check out ETR to
see see Jack's articles and we will be back next Monday.
See you guys all next week.