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Hello everybody and welcome to a
special late. 

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In addition of ATP Jai Singh. 
Today, we're joined by special 

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guest, Jack Miller new full-time
member of the see our team. 

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It's off all things running 
back, Dead Zone, Rogers, and 

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Chasers otherwise Let's get 
going. 

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This is atpg. 
You see? 

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Let's go. 
Pat fryer homos hand job. 

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Fix your side with your Mar 
Everybody. 

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Welcome to ATP. 
Chasing Jack. 

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We're really excited to have you
on and congrats again for 

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getting that role DTR. 
That's awesome stuff. 

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Yeah, how has it been working 
full time over there? 

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D.c. are so far. 
It's been good. 

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I mean etrs, great. 
The whole team is great. 

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Just working on the projections 
a bit and then doing some 

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content on the best ball and 
then some wedding stuff too. 

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So it's been fun and I'm excited
to be here today. 

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To first time on the ship 
chasing channel of shows. 

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So this will be good. 
Also the awesome. 

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Yeah, yeah. 
Looking forward to it. 

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And thought you've been diving 
into some, like, Niche wedding 

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stuff over at EC are, right? 
I feel like I've seen you tweet 

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out like, WNBA. 
That's what it's gonna require. 

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That is part of your, and your 
contract. 

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Yeah, I've gotten really into 
the WNBA over the past couple of

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years, just because it's like 
the summer. 

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So like there's like, you know, 
we've got two months till 

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football mbas over like a. 
Like, if if you're looking to 

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bet, you've got baseball, which 
I've never really done a huge 

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fan of in the WNBA. 
Is the only other option. 

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So I've just been kind of doing 
that on the side for fun. 

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Yeah, I guess that's probably 
better than tying up your your 

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money for eight months like we 
do invest Ball. 

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But yeah, I mean I've been doing
my fair share of that to, you 

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know. 
It's not so much an either-or as

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much as it is a both situation. 
Yeah, makes sense. 

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Pat. 
How's, uh, how's your weekend? 

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You still in in slow draft hell,
or have you escaped from that 

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yet? 
No, I mean, I'm still deep in 

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the slow draft weeds, you know. 
I will say that it has not been 

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as bad as I thought it would be.
You know, you gave me these 

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horror stories about the big 
board, but the big difference is

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that, you entered slow drafts 
days before the NFL Draft, when 

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they had to set it down to one 
hour clock, just to get all the 

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drafts and time. 
Done in time, before the draft, 

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I'm sitting here and June, you 
know, there's a nice little a 

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tower clock. 
I got goes to 11 hours late in 

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the evening. 
I don't have to worry about, I'm

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on the clock right now and 
probably 50 drafts, but I took 

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care of the ones that were under
four hours. 

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So have a nice long podcast 
today and I'll get back to it 

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later. 
I've been doing the Star Trek, 

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you know, where I star the 
players of the teams that I 

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draft, especially in the early 
rounds, I did that as a present 

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for for myself for Late June 
self, and its really paid off in

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a big way because and I can go 
in there. 

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I can see, oh, I gotta 
correlated guy right here. 

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It's much easier from the 
desktop when you're doing like, 

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120, slow drafts at once that's 
another, another Pro tip right 

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now. 
Yeah, I so yeah Pat reference I 

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entered like I don't know, a 
hundred of the superflex drafts 

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in the two days before that I 
fell drafts. 

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So they all closed pre-draft 
which is just like an absolute 

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nightmare because once the 
really bad thing is once the 

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clocks start ticking down, I 
think it got down to an hour per

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pick and I was in 100 draft. 
So I'd wake up in the morning 

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and have like, five minutes left
to pick in like, 20, drafts and 

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be like, this is just, yeah. 
Yeah, that's the thing. 

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DraftKings you know I was in 
like a handful of slow dry like 

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five and that was way more 
stressful than being in like 

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120. 
So drafts on hundred because 

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it's a just a straight eight 
hour clock. 

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So, you know, if you go to bed, 
you like you sleep, you sleep 8 

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hours and 10 minutes, you might 
miss like a 500 dollar, best 

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ball team. 
You don't want to do that. 

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So I don't think I'm gonna do 
anymore, DraftKings slows. 

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Hopefully the fast was Bill a 
little bit more regular because 

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I'm trying to get more action 
down over there, but Cobra Kai 

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saying this slow drafts are so 
boring. 

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When you do enough, then you're 
basically always on the clock. 

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So he's almost like, you know, 
you can sit there for an hour 

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and just draft Pics. 
Like, constantly, you have to 

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familiarize yourself with all of
the teams which can be a little 

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difficult, but it's like, 
sometimes it's like more action 

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than being on a in a single fast
draft. 

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You know, you're almost 
multi-tabling at a certain one 

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draft, degeneracy, Jack. 
Do you have a slow draft first 

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fast? 
Fast Draft take. 

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I definitely prefer doing the 
fast drafts. 

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Like I'll have a couple times 
every summer where for whatever 

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reason all like I think it's a 
great idea to join like 3050. 

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However many at once and I'm 
like, I'll get the like around 

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8:00 and I'll be super bored. 
But I mean, I'll probably do 

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that again. 
Just because it's like a, it's 

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like a, you know, it's like a 
for whatever reason. 

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Sometimes I just get the urge to
mass entering, so I'll do that. 

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And then, you know, week later, 
I'll hate myself. 

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But generally, I think I prefer 
the fast. 

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I haven't done a single slow BBM
and I don't plan to and I don't,

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I had to do the slow bulldoze 
because they're only slow, but 

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for the most part thing, you 
know, 25 and up, I prefer to do 

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fast but for me, it was a puppy 
strategy. 

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How do I get 150 of these 
puppies in? 

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Yeah, I mean, it's undeniably 
like a plus EV strategy when 

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those snapshot tournaments are 
about to close. 

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And then you get one extra, how 
long? 

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These last like a month, the 
slow drafts or I don't know. 

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Couple weeks. 
At least I can get a glass like 

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a month. 
Yeah. 

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Almost an extra Flakes and 
fashioned kind of like it's it's

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kind of like, I don't doubt that
it's an edge, but I've already, 

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I've already been through the 
pain, I know that the clocks 

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aren't going to change, but that
was like, you know, you know, 

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the what's analogy, like your 
parents, get you smoking a 

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cigarette and they force you to 
smoke the entire pack at once 

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like a listen. 
I'm a hardcore smoker. 

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Now this backfired Mom and Dad. 
I'm gonna do this again. 

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I cannot emphasize enough how 
important it is to use the Star 

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Trek in this. 
Like you have to like when 

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you're when you like fire off 
like 50 slow drafts at once. 

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It's a blast because you're 
getting like you're picking in 

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the first round, like a million 
drafts at once and you're just 

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like, click exit the draft, you 
know, pick exit the draft pick. 

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Exit job. 
Don't do that, don't do it. 

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It's so fun to do it, but don't 
do it. 

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Pick star the team star, the 
opposite team exits that way, 

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less fun but you will, thank 
you. 

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Self later. 
Yeah. 

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That's that's something I could 
definitely be better on. 

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I do agree with the like 
snapshot tournaments, the slow 

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deaths. 
For I don't, I've only done like

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a couple best Ball Mania draft 
so far because I'm waiting until

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I kaga stand. 
Then I'm gonna do. 

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Damn. 
And then I'm going for three 

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deep right now. 
I'm planning to like because 

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Leone had that the best ball 
Manifesto and it showed like 

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that doing it later is better. 
A lot of that is like the dead 

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player. 
So I've just been waiting On my 

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best Ball Mania teams and then I
guess I'm going to be like 

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trying to crank out a bunch of 
fast drafts in August. 

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I think is my plan. 
Yeah, that makes sense. 

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I think I'm going to ramp up a 
ton in August. 

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I still have been I think I've 
got like 20 or so that's Paul 

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Mania drafts and so far but I've
mostly been playing around other

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snapshot tournaments and waiting
it out but sometimes it's just 

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it's too tempting to to do a 
best one. 

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Yeah, I didn't know, I probably 
did five this week. 

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Weekend. 
This is like, yeah I tell you 

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what when, when a snapshot 
tournament opens up like a super

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Flex Chihuahua, It's hard not to
want to jump in. 

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Best Romania for me. 
I'm like, I know that's where 

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everyone's going to be. 
It's like, super Flex. 

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It's like fun. 
Fastereft only like everyone's 

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going to be hanging out over 
there, like might sneak over the

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best Pomeranian see what that 
looks like. 

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So, I did that, I'd honestly do 
that like five times. 

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Got some really interesting 
teams did I did to McCaffrey, I 

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think it was McCaffrey Pollard. 
Briefs starts that I did two of 

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you sitting there just like, I 
don't know. 

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This is not going to be around 
in August, right? 

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That's what I said. 
That's what I've been saying 

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since like, with these things 
opened up in May and the running

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back. 
It's funny there. 

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Anybody ATP has stayed, I think 
maybe they've crept up slightly,

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but I'm with you. 
I don't think that'll be a thing

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in August. 
Yeah, it's also the type of 

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doing, we're gonna dive into 
this because Jack wrote an 

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awesome article on the infected 
Zone and how its shifted over 

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the last couple years. 
Is ATP is shifted, but it is the

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type of thing where I would be 
much more hesitant to do that. 

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Start like if there was no 
Chihuahua, Super flex. 

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But my hope is that there's just
like enough of like, kind of the

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wide receiver Bros over there, 
that I won't get absolutely 

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punished by the room for going 
with that start. 

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And then I think I kind of 
pulled up a unfortunately, both 

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drafts Kittle fell all the way 
to the sixth round so I only had

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three wide receivers through 
seven rounds on both teams. 

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But that's the big question 
right now is can you take 

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advantage and go like hyper? 
And take advantage of like 

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really interesting. 
Running back prices, early in 

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the draft, or are you better off
grabbing one may be hitting the 

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old dead zone is Jack writes 
about in this piece that being a

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little bit more interesting. 
There's like it makes it, it 

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makes it definitely like hard to
know what to do at every point 

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in the draft, which makes it 
fun. 

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And there's a huge dip like when
I've done, you know, handful of 

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those RB RB RB starts and it 
makes a huge difference, right? 

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If you are In a room that's 
going to absolutely punish you 

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at wide receiver. 
And I'll let you catch up or if 

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you're in a room, where, you 
know, Tyler Lockett slides 

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around pass ATP, and you can get
them in the 7th or Mike Evans 

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Falls around past ATP and you 
can get them in the eighth, 

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right? 
Like, if the room kind of gives 

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you a wide receiver value later,
I feel like I get the best of 

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both worlds. 
So s still Hammer, four wide 

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receivers and that window and 
get three potential Bell, cast 

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running backs. 
But the room doesn't always fall

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that way and it can, like I have
like you mentioned that Have had

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those teams where I started 
three running backs and then I 

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end up with like three through 
seven or something like that 

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because the room didn't hand me 
any water sewer values and just 

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feels really thin. 
But anyways. 

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Yeah let's let's dive into Jax 
Jax articles. 

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So for those who aren't 
familiar, definitely I posted it

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on Twitter. 
You can find it on Jack's 

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Twitter as well but it's on 
establish. 

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00:11:32,700 --> 00:11:35,500
The Run Jack writes. 
A really interesting article 

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about the running back Dead Zone
and how Ow. 

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We have to re-evaluate if the 
dead zone still exist or to what

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extent it exists with the 
changing running back landscape.

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So I guess we'll start with this
Jack from from your research so 

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far. 
Do you think the running back 

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Dead Zone? 
Like as you traditionally 

214
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defined it as you know, running 
back. 

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00:11:56,500 --> 00:12:02,300
Some rounds 326 still exists on 
a site like Underdog Underdog. 

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00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:04,500
I think it's kind of tricky 
because like all the data we 

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have is for a completely 
different like a teepee. 

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00:12:07,700 --> 00:12:10,600
Input. 
If I had to just say yes or no, 

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does it exist to the you know, 
extent we've seen in previous 

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years? 
I think I'd say no because of 

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how depressed running back ATP 
is and the half half PPR format 

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over there. 
Yeah. 

223
00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:27,700
Is it possible that it exists 
and it's just rounds five to 

224
00:12:27,700 --> 00:12:32,700
seven instead of rounds 326? 
It could be. 

225
00:12:33,300 --> 00:12:38,700
But like, the whole it's not 
like the guys in Around three 

226
00:12:38,700 --> 00:12:42,200
are just cheaper, like the guys 
around three are cheaper, but 

227
00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:45,500
like, it's like that through the
whole draft, I guess if that 

228
00:12:45,500 --> 00:12:47,700
makes sense. 
Although, I don't know if that 

229
00:12:47,700 --> 00:12:53,400
really answers the question. 
It's such like different price 

230
00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:54,100
points. 
I guess. 

231
00:12:54,100 --> 00:12:58,300
Like it's a different bed 
entirely because the guys that 

232
00:12:58,300 --> 00:13:03,300
have underperformed, I think 
like in rounds, three rounds 

233
00:13:03,300 --> 00:13:06,600
three and four, like if you can 
get them in round 6. 

234
00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:09,500
Even if Like scoring the same 
amount of points. 

235
00:13:09,500 --> 00:13:11,400
I gets a completely different 
bet. 

236
00:13:12,900 --> 00:13:16,900
I don't know, you know. 
So one thing I thought that was 

237
00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:19,600
interesting. 
I think along those lines. 

238
00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:22,800
This is a chart from Jack's 
articles. 

239
00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:28,700
This is this red line here is 
running back scoring by draft 

240
00:13:28,700 --> 00:13:33,100
position and have PR points and 
the green line is wide receiver 

241
00:13:33,100 --> 00:13:37,500
scoring by trap position and 
traditionally what we've seen in

242
00:13:37,500 --> 00:13:38,800
this. 
Dead Zone which, you know, I 

243
00:13:38,808 --> 00:13:43,700
think roughly is pics, like 36, 
through what 72? 

244
00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:47,100
If I'm doing that math, right? 
We see a big gap where even in 

245
00:13:47,100 --> 00:13:50,900
half, PPR historically, you 
know, 2020 2021, the wide 

246
00:13:50,900 --> 00:13:54,000
receivers in that range are 
outscoring the running backs and

247
00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:57,500
happy PR last year. 
I think was the first time Jack.

248
00:13:57,500 --> 00:14:01,000
Correct me if I'm wrong or we 
saw that actually in that dead 

249
00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:05,400
zone range, the running backs 
actually outscored the wide 

250
00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:08,700
receivers sort of on average, so
It was an interesting view where

251
00:14:08,700 --> 00:14:13,200
I thought that like maybe the 
market even last year was sort 

252
00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:17,800
of pricing in The Dead Zone 
affect more appropriately in 

253
00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:20,800
that like you know, these lines 
are pretty close right there 

254
00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:22,000
running back and wide receiver 
lines. 

255
00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:25,600
Like there's not a huge gap. 
Jack did I summarize that well 

256
00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:27,500
or anything else? 
You'd want to add on that? 

257
00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:31,000
Yeah, basically. 
Um like I don't have the yearly 

258
00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:34,400
half PPR data because like we 
have Hefty are scoring for, you 

259
00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:37,500
know, dating back 10 years but 
we don't have the ATP so we can 

260
00:14:37,500 --> 00:14:41,700
really We only do Underdog for a
few years but wide receiver 

261
00:14:41,700 --> 00:14:46,500
typically has outscored running 
back on Underdog over the past 

262
00:14:46,500 --> 00:14:49,800
couple years and in PPR it's 
been like a huge difference for 

263
00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:53,600
in rounds three through six like
the blue line is way higher than

264
00:14:54,700 --> 00:14:56,800
then the red line. 
Yeah. 

265
00:14:56,800 --> 00:15:00,500
And there you see the PPR 
version and even that is like so

266
00:15:00,500 --> 00:15:03,800
much less pronounced than it was
in previous years. 

267
00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:07,100
And part of that is that it was 
a good scoring year for running 

268
00:15:07,100 --> 00:15:09,300
backs in this. 
Ins and a bad spring here for 

269
00:15:09,700 --> 00:15:12,400
receivers in this range which 
is, you know, kind of just like 

270
00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:15,600
your to your variance. 
But I think when you like pair 

271
00:15:16,100 --> 00:15:21,800
the, the that with the fact that
our be ATP is so different than 

272
00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:25,500
it was three years ago. 
And this year like looking at 

273
00:15:25,500 --> 00:15:29,100
this half, PPR chart like 
running backs, outscored wide 

274
00:15:29,100 --> 00:15:31,800
receivers last year and now 
running backs are all like 

275
00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:35,300
around cheaper. 
So when you kind of like put 

276
00:15:35,300 --> 00:15:39,300
those things together it kind of
like begs the Question of does 

277
00:15:39,300 --> 00:15:43,500
this exist anymore? 
Can we talk I just sent you a 

278
00:15:43,508 --> 00:15:47,300
link to a tweet the Hayden. 
Yeah because I think what's so 

279
00:15:47,300 --> 00:15:52,200
interesting about this is like 
Okay so this data would lead us 

280
00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:57,000
to think that we're coming off a
year in which was really good to

281
00:15:57,000 --> 00:16:02,000
draft at least one running back 
through the first six rounds but

282
00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:07,200
it's the exact opposite. 
It was optimal to have zero 

283
00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:10,000
running back. 
Through six rounds last year. 

284
00:16:10,700 --> 00:16:14,300
It / a chart that I just put in 
the private chat here for you 

285
00:16:14,300 --> 00:16:15,800
Sam. 
Yeah, let me try to share that. 

286
00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:19,700
Sorry. 
One second, second best was one 

287
00:16:19,700 --> 00:16:25,100
running back third-best was two 
running backs and so on it, 

288
00:16:25,100 --> 00:16:27,300
never it never flips. 
The fewer running backs, you had

289
00:16:27,300 --> 00:16:29,900
through those first six rounds, 
the better last year. 

290
00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:33,500
And so, even though wide 
receiver prices were were more 

291
00:16:33,500 --> 00:16:36,600
expensive and you could, you 
know, you could say that was 

292
00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:37,600
incorrect because they didn't 
score. 

293
00:16:37,700 --> 00:16:41,600
Scores. 
Well, it was actually quite 

294
00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:44,800
powerful to have very few 
running backs through through 

295
00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:47,200
the early rounds last year. 
So what, what are your thoughts 

296
00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:50,100
on that? 
Because it's kind of, yeah, to 

297
00:16:50,100 --> 00:16:53,000
square those two things. 
I don't think that the answer 

298
00:16:53,300 --> 00:16:58,000
cuz running backs are still like
such a higher risk investment 

299
00:16:58,300 --> 00:17:01,600
then receivers with, you know, 
the injury risk. 

300
00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:03,800
Like, some of these guys around 
speakers looks like don't even 

301
00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:06,599
have a secure, hold on their job
the whole years. 

302
00:17:06,599 --> 00:17:09,900
So I don't think like the animal
answer to the running back. 

303
00:17:09,900 --> 00:17:13,900
Dead Zone going away. 
Potentially is like to start 

304
00:17:13,900 --> 00:17:15,800
going. 
Robust are be and loading up our

305
00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:20,000
running backs. 
I think like In the past few 

306
00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:25,099
years and you've written about 
this with bimodal or whatever 

307
00:17:25,099 --> 00:17:30,800
it's called nowadays, is that it
was a good like the running 

308
00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:35,800
backs in the first two rounds. 
Previously had very high bust 

309
00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:41,500
risk but their ability to have 
like legendary upside was just 

310
00:17:41,500 --> 00:17:45,800
absolutely off the charts. 
And so I think maybe with the 

311
00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:49,400
depressed running backs atp's in
round 3 26. 

312
00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:51,800
The answer isn't to dislike load
up on running backs. 

313
00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:54,400
All of these rounds because 
there's so much evidence showing

314
00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:57,300
that wide receiver. 
Heavy starts are good. 

315
00:17:57,300 --> 00:18:01,600
I think maybe it's just instead 
of being like, you get your two 

316
00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:04,500
running backs or your one or two
running backs in the first two 

317
00:18:04,500 --> 00:18:07,200
rounds and then you just pound 
Rod receiver forever. 

318
00:18:07,500 --> 00:18:10,700
Maybe the answer is, you know, 
focus on receivers in the first 

319
00:18:10,700 --> 00:18:14,300
eight rounds. 
But you can sprinkle in a couple

320
00:18:14,300 --> 00:18:17,100
running backs like wherever you 
want as opposed to, if you don't

321
00:18:17,100 --> 00:18:20,100
get one into round two, just 
going Full-on 0 RV at that 

322
00:18:20,100 --> 00:18:24,100
point, if that makes sense. 
Yeah, I like that a lot. 

323
00:18:24,100 --> 00:18:26,600
I think that that's, I mean, 
that's kind of, like, how I'm 

324
00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:29,000
thinking through this, so that 
sounds great to me. 

325
00:18:30,900 --> 00:18:33,700
Yeah. 
Because it does feel like the, 

326
00:18:34,300 --> 00:18:36,600
the issue that we have in 
current draft environments, is 

327
00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:39,600
that wide receivers. 
They've gotten even more 

328
00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:41,600
expensive than last year. 
You had a really interesting 

329
00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:44,400
chart in your article, I don't 
know, Sam, if you can pull that 

330
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:48,600
one up, that was showing the 
draft, the Baseline Underdog ATP

331
00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:52,900
and then DraftKings and 
comparison to that and F, A PC 

332
00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:58,500
which is just like looks crazy, 
crazy, in terms of how much 

333
00:18:58,500 --> 00:19:01,900
later the wide receivers are 
going compared to Underdog on 

334
00:19:01,900 --> 00:19:05,600
FPC which is a full PPR format. 
That's is, you know, that's 

335
00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:08,700
somewhat because tight ends are 
pushed up in a Titan premium 

336
00:19:08,700 --> 00:19:12,600
format as well. 
But, you know, we have this wide

337
00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,400
receiver pricing on Underdog. 
That's really unlike anything 

338
00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:21,200
we've ever seen, especially for 
half PPR site and That creates 

339
00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:23,700
value almost has to create value
running back. 

340
00:19:23,700 --> 00:19:27,700
But it also creates a situation 
where, you know, you can get 

341
00:19:27,700 --> 00:19:30,300
like fully locked out at wide 
receiver and can happen very 

342
00:19:30,300 --> 00:19:33,900
quickly. 
And so like there's this Push 

343
00:19:33,900 --> 00:19:36,300
Pull of, I want to go get these 
running backs. 

344
00:19:36,300 --> 00:19:39,800
I want to take advantage of 
these types of starts but then, 

345
00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:42,700
okay, I've done that. 
Like I mentioned these, this 

346
00:19:42,700 --> 00:19:44,900
McCaffrey Pollard restart. 
That I did twice over the 

347
00:19:44,900 --> 00:19:50,600
weekend on one of the teams, my 
top four receivers are McLaren 

348
00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:54,200
Chris Godwin, Michael Pittman 
and Brandon Cooks feels pretty 

349
00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:57,400
gross. 
Like, I maybe I can get there at

350
00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:01,000
those running backs. 
Are absolute studs, but it can 

351
00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:04,100
like get away from you pretty 
quickly at wide receiver. 

352
00:20:04,100 --> 00:20:06,400
So that's It's just, I don't 
know. 

353
00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:07,900
It just makes drafting really 
yeah. 

354
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:12,200
So I wanted to say one thing on 
this on this Hayden chart and 

355
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:13,500
let me try to share it again, 
sir. 

356
00:20:13,500 --> 00:20:21,000
I was having some internet 
issues for a second, but so is 

357
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:24,800
this sharing right now? 
No, just just okay, there we go.

358
00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:28,700
So this chart, what I think is 
interesting about this chart pad

359
00:20:28,700 --> 00:20:33,000
is so it talks about right? 
It was awesome. 

360
00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:36,500
All to have zero running backs 
through Six round and kind of 

361
00:20:36,500 --> 00:20:39,400
how do we square that with the 
last chart? 

362
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:41,700
We showed we're running backs 
are you know seemingly 

363
00:20:41,700 --> 00:20:43,700
outscoring wide receivers in 
that range? 

364
00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:47,700
I think like what would I see 
when I see this chart is that 

365
00:20:47,700 --> 00:20:50,500
like the league winning running 
backs? 

366
00:20:50,500 --> 00:20:56,000
Weren't drafted and rounds 6 
like by closing line ATP Josh 

367
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:59,400
Jacobs was a seventh-round pick.
Tony Pollard was a 

368
00:20:59,408 --> 00:21:01,600
seventh-round. 
Pick your Mantra Stephenson was 

369
00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:04,500
a seventh-round pick or later? 
I'll sander. 

370
00:21:04,900 --> 00:21:08,400
Yeah MI Is like an ape round 
pick Jamaal Williams was like an

371
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:12,700
11th round pick, right? 
So I think like one 

372
00:21:12,700 --> 00:21:15,900
interpretation of this chart and
like a lot of the data that's 

373
00:21:15,900 --> 00:21:20,200
showing how good 0 RB is, is 
essentially measuring. 

374
00:21:20,700 --> 00:21:23,500
Did you draft remond Ray Jacobs 
Pollard? 

375
00:21:23,500 --> 00:21:26,000
Kenneth Walker or Jamaal 
Williams who all went like 

376
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,000
round, seven, eight later, 
right? 

377
00:21:28,100 --> 00:21:29,200
Those were like the biggest 
League. 

378
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:31,000
Well, not just did you draft 
them? 

379
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:35,000
But did you draft them, and 
structure, a team to maximize 

380
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:36,200
that hit? 
It right? 

381
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:37,700
That's that's why you're running
back works. 

382
00:21:37,700 --> 00:21:41,200
Is that it's not just that I 
drafted from Andre. 

383
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:45,700
It's that I drafted room Andre 
and when he hit it's like sorry.

384
00:21:45,700 --> 00:21:47,300
You don't have the wide 
receivers I have because I'm 

385
00:21:47,300 --> 00:21:51,200
matching you a running back now.
Yeah, but I do think it's like 

386
00:21:51,900 --> 00:21:56,500
like I agree with that. 
But also if you nail your, if 

387
00:21:56,500 --> 00:21:59,900
you go bimodal running back and 
nail your to first running backs

388
00:21:59,900 --> 00:22:03,200
and then Hitler Mondrian round. 
Nine like you did on your, you 

389
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,500
know, two million dollar team. 
That's also extremely powerful. 

390
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:07,600
It's oh yeah. 
Also works. 

391
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:10,900
Just that that also seems that 
have work for some people. 

392
00:22:12,300 --> 00:22:17,300
So, I don't know, I guess like 
the reason why I think the data 

393
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:21,200
shows this, like, we have to 
realize that the running back 

394
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:24,500
League. 
Winners largely did come in that

395
00:22:24,500 --> 00:22:27,600
eight nine ten, eleven round 
range and not not rounds 4 

396
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:33,000
through 6, right? 
But anyways, yeah, I think 

397
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:37,200
another thing that's interesting
on this This Jack is just the 

398
00:22:38,100 --> 00:22:42,900
PPR verse verse half. 
PPR and even for ffp, see, I was

399
00:22:42,900 --> 00:22:47,400
surprised by like how tight this
was to even like wide receivers 

400
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:49,900
are still out scoring running 
backs throughout which would 

401
00:22:49,900 --> 00:22:55,500
expect in full PPR but maybe 
it's just my memory serves me 

402
00:22:55,500 --> 00:22:57,200
wrong. 
But I remember seeing like this 

403
00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:01,200
huge sort of like Gap in round 
you know, picks 40 to 80 in 

404
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:02,900
Prior years that just didn't 
show up last year. 

405
00:23:02,900 --> 00:23:05,400
So again, you know, probably 
system. 

406
00:23:05,500 --> 00:23:09,400
Deck of what happened last year,
four wide receivers running, 

407
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,600
backs in that range, but I did 
think that was interesting as 

408
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,300
well. 
Yeah. 

409
00:23:15,300 --> 00:23:18,400
Any thoughts on like the full 
PPR if that's like corrected at 

410
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:22,100
all? 
Or I think it's correcting any 

411
00:23:22,100 --> 00:23:26,000
right that in previous years, 
the gap between running backs 

412
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,000
and receivers in these Rangers 
like 50 points. 

413
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:31,900
And now just now just like kind 
of guesstimating off the chart. 

414
00:23:31,900 --> 00:23:35,400
It looks like last year was like
20 or 25. 

415
00:23:35,500 --> 00:23:42,600
I've but it was like a good year
for running backs in these rains

416
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:47,300
like the group are be 10 to 25. 
Scored more than usual and wide 

417
00:23:47,300 --> 00:23:49,400
receiver. 
Attend 225 scored less. 

418
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,100
And I don't really think that's 
like a trend, I kind of think 

419
00:23:54,100 --> 00:23:57,400
that's just variance so that 
could explain part of it. 

420
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:03,000
But I do think it's really 
interesting that ATP is 

421
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:06,000
correcting but it's not 
correcting like as much as 

422
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,300
Underdog which like you 
mentioned earlier. 

423
00:24:08,300 --> 00:24:16,400
Like it should be the opposite 
so I think on PPR like FF PC or 

424
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,200
DraftKings or something, like 
I'd still lean toward receivers 

425
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:23,100
in these range, maybe not as 
strongly as I did previously but

426
00:24:23,100 --> 00:24:26,200
I think generally I'm still 
going receivers around three 

427
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:30,700
through six on the full PR sites
because receivers score more. 

428
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:35,400
And like on those sites, you 
want to start a wide receiver in

429
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:38,600
the flex, whereas, on running 
back, it's sometimes more viable

430
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:42,800
to have a running back there. 
Plus the atp's not shifted as 

431
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:46,300
much. 
And yeah, God Pats are. 

432
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:49,200
Well, I just want to ask you 
because, like one of the reasons

433
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,600
that the running back Dead Zone 
has been such a key thing to 

434
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:56,200
avoid in recent Seasons, which 
you highlight in the article is 

435
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:59,900
that if you were taking running 
backs in the dead zone, you're 

436
00:24:59,900 --> 00:25:04,300
taking these profiles that we We
were kind of like systematically

437
00:25:04,300 --> 00:25:08,000
missing on you talk in the 
article, like, when you compare 

438
00:25:08,100 --> 00:25:12,100
some of their Andrews work, like
when you look at ATP verse, the 

439
00:25:12,100 --> 00:25:14,400
expert consensus rankings at 
fantasy pros. 

440
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:20,000
There were sort of this, like, 
consensus bias or whatever. 

441
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:23,400
Like we were just missing on 
these running back profiles in 

442
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:28,300
the running back Dead Zone, it's
like systemically and so you 

443
00:25:28,300 --> 00:25:30,900
have that issue or it's like 
it's these guys were probably 

444
00:25:30,900 --> 00:25:33,100
less. 
Good at predicting. 

445
00:25:33,900 --> 00:25:37,100
You're taking those guys and 
you're doing it in a part of the

446
00:25:37,108 --> 00:25:41,000
draft where wide receiver has 
not fallen off yet, but is about

447
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:45,100
to and so I go, I want to get 
your thoughts on that part of it

448
00:25:45,100 --> 00:25:48,100
for this year because it's wide 
receiver moves up in price. 

449
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,600
Where is that drop-off for you 
occurring? 

450
00:25:51,700 --> 00:25:58,600
Like is it you know, like around
round 5 now or is it? 

451
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,800
You know, it feels like to me. 
There's a couple places. 

452
00:26:01,900 --> 00:26:03,400
As you can nominate. 
I mean, I think there's a big 

453
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:05,100
tear break even in the third 
round. 

454
00:26:05,100 --> 00:26:08,900
There's a tear break that I see,
kind of more in like the early 

455
00:26:08,900 --> 00:26:11,000
5th round. 
There's another potential to 

456
00:26:11,008 --> 00:26:13,300
your break in like the mid 
seventh round. 

457
00:26:14,500 --> 00:26:16,200
Where do you think that fall 
off? 

458
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:18,200
That's kind of made the dead 
zone. 

459
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:21,100
So, powerful in the past. 
Like, where's that placed in 

460
00:26:21,100 --> 00:26:25,200
drops right now? 
Yeah, that's that's a good 

461
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:29,700
question too. 
Um, we I mean, one way to do it 

462
00:26:29,900 --> 00:26:33,900
would be on a macro level I 
guess since we can quantify like

463
00:26:33,900 --> 00:26:37,000
how much these guys have jumped 
in a teepee? 

464
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,600
We could just like take the end 
of 6th round cut off. 

465
00:26:40,500 --> 00:26:46,000
Let me find how far around 
they've jumped but I'd say like 

466
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:48,200
that early round 5. 
I think that you bring up as a 

467
00:26:48,208 --> 00:26:55,400
good point and then maybe like, 
late round 6, but given how much

468
00:26:55,400 --> 00:27:03,800
they've jumped That would I 
guess be like if if we say it's 

469
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:07,600
like around 6:00, but why do you
see where ATP is up around? 

470
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:12,300
Then that would go past what 
we've previously defined as the 

471
00:27:12,300 --> 00:27:13,600
dead. 
There was that your was the 

472
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:17,200
drop-off happening before it was
around the end of round 6. 

473
00:27:17,700 --> 00:27:21,300
Obviously, it's kind of like 
approximated so easy. 

474
00:27:21,300 --> 00:27:24,200
I've for the like analysis I've 
done in the past. 

475
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:29,000
I've used pick 72 it's just 
because that's like easy for the

476
00:27:29,100 --> 00:27:33,700
End of the sixth round but I 
guess more broadly typically, 

477
00:27:33,700 --> 00:27:36,400
approximately at the end of the 
sixth round. 

478
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:43,600
Yeah, and I think to your 
question Pat like another, like 

479
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,700
another answer to that question 
could be that like and I do this

480
00:27:46,700 --> 00:27:49,400
wouldn't be my answer. 
I don't think this is exactly 

481
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:53,000
true. 
But like at a certain point back

482
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:56,900
to Blair's point of like we used
to systematically miss on 

483
00:27:56,900 --> 00:28:00,900
positions in certain ranges, and
that traditionally was, we would

484
00:28:00,900 --> 00:28:04,100
draft running backs in round 
three to six when we should have

485
00:28:04,100 --> 00:28:06,400
been taking water receivers 
because we're pushing running 

486
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:09,500
backs up. 
You know, with bad profiles, 

487
00:28:09,500 --> 00:28:12,400
Etc. 
It could get to a point that if 

488
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:16,400
we do push those running backs 
down far enough, they'll be 

489
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:20,900
priced such that the opportunity
cost at wide receiver is 

490
00:28:20,900 --> 00:28:23,100
actually like the right pricing 
at that makes sense, right? 

491
00:28:23,100 --> 00:28:24,900
Like if the traditional 
underground dead, something 

492
00:28:24,900 --> 00:28:28,400
balance ghost in each other. 
Exactly it the percentage odds 

493
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:32,100
of the, you know, Mike Davis 
profile. 

494
00:28:32,100 --> 00:28:34,400
Hitting if he was a tenth round 
pick, instead of a sixth-round 

495
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:38,000
pick, maybe that's that actually
accurately captures his His odds

496
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,700
of hitting, right? 
And I don't think we've fully 

497
00:28:40,700 --> 00:28:43,600
got there like they're still 
running backs, I'm avoiding in 

498
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:46,000
that range and there's still 
someone targeting. 

499
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:49,200
But I think like what this chart
kind of shows right? 

500
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,200
Is like we're getting closer to 
a world where there's not this 

501
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:55,600
systematic inefficiency of 
running backs being overpriced 

502
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:58,000
in a certain range, potentially 
right? 

503
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:00,800
If this sort of trend were to 
hold for multiple years in a 

504
00:29:00,808 --> 00:29:03,700
row. 
So, yeah, it's interesting 

505
00:29:03,700 --> 00:29:05,200
debate. 
No, I think that's exactly 

506
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,000
right. 
We're it, if it's a certain 

507
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:10,900
point, You know, there's this 
bubble of wide receiver value 

508
00:29:10,900 --> 00:29:14,600
that has tended to exist and 
then there's this group of 

509
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:20,200
running backs that are mostly. 
They're mostly appealing because

510
00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:24,800
of projectable volume and make 
those two things are never going

511
00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:26,300
to change, right? 
There's always going to be this 

512
00:29:26,300 --> 00:29:28,600
group of running backs, use 
mostly peeling, 22, projectable 

513
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:32,000
volume. 
And this group of kind of not 

514
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:35,800
Elite wide receivers but like 
really strong wide receiver 

515
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:37,800
profiles. 
That were kind of like like, I 

516
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,700
don't know who to pick, you 
know, and that group is like, 

517
00:29:40,700 --> 00:29:42,500
you generally want to be 
overweight that group of wide 

518
00:29:42,500 --> 00:29:47,500
receivers and underweight, the 
wide receive the running backs 

519
00:29:47,500 --> 00:29:49,500
were just getting there on 
volume projections, 

520
00:29:49,500 --> 00:29:52,800
historically, but at some point,
maybe if it's that those 

521
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:58,200
projectable volume running backs
versus like, You know, to just 

522
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:01,900
miss Schuster it's like yeah I 
think the projection based 

523
00:30:01,900 --> 00:30:05,100
running back at that point. 
So yeah, it is certain point 

524
00:30:05,100 --> 00:30:09,600
like but to me write it really 
comes down to what can I get in 

525
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:13,200
this part of the draft that I 
can't get later and I'm trying 

526
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,800
to figure out, you know, and 
it's kind of its kind of 

527
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:19,500
interesting right now and drafts
because when I look at a brief 

528
00:30:19,500 --> 00:30:23,600
Halt and I'm on the bullish side
of the briefs all evaluation, 

529
00:30:24,300 --> 00:30:27,300
but you know, if you just kind 
of open your third eye, And join

530
00:30:27,300 --> 00:30:31,200
me in Bruce Hall, optimism land.
If you're one of the people that

531
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:34,300
worry about it, you're there. 
I'm an optimism land. 

532
00:30:34,300 --> 00:30:35,200
Yeah. 
All right. 

533
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:39,200
All right, you know, if res 
Halls the guy we saw as a 

534
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:45,100
rookie, if Aaron Rodgers isn't 
washed, and if he is at full 

535
00:30:45,100 --> 00:30:48,900
health in the back half of this 
season, having a running back 

536
00:30:48,900 --> 00:30:54,300
like that in a tournament that 
is massively back. 

537
00:30:54,300 --> 00:30:56,600
Heavy in terms of when we want 
our points to be scored. 

538
00:30:56,700 --> 00:30:59,600
Like, you know, if I could pick 
which weeks, my points are 

539
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,200
scored, it's 17. 
Then 16 then 15, right? 

540
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,300
Like I want those are the weeks 
I most want points. 

541
00:31:04,700 --> 00:31:07,100
So having a young running back 
is, you know, hopefully going to

542
00:31:07,108 --> 00:31:10,600
be a full health by the very end
of the season and hopefully 

543
00:31:10,900 --> 00:31:12,800
going to be able to pay off a 
third-round ATP, which is not 

544
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:15,500
particularly high for, you know,
really strong running back 

545
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:18,500
Prospect, right? 
That type of thing. 

546
00:31:18,500 --> 00:31:21,300
I'm like I can't get this later,
I can't get a guy who might be 

547
00:31:21,300 --> 00:31:24,500
like the top-scoring running 
back in all the fantasy playoffs

548
00:31:24,900 --> 00:31:26,500
later. 
Like there's just not much 

549
00:31:27,100 --> 00:31:30,100
They're not much like a 
realistic chance of finding that

550
00:31:30,100 --> 00:31:34,400
later when you are moving into. 
So then but then it becomes a 

551
00:31:34,408 --> 00:31:36,800
question of like, okay, now in 
round four and five like, what 

552
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:41,000
am I giving up at wide receiver?
Like, can I get these profiles 

553
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,700
later? 
And I think that's the big 

554
00:31:43,700 --> 00:31:46,800
question and drafts this year. 
So yeah, when is that cutoff of?

555
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:50,900
I can't find this later at wide 
receiver because I can talk 

556
00:31:50,900 --> 00:31:54,800
myself into like Trail and perks
and Jahan Dotson and that's a 67

557
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:56,600
round. 
You know, 6, 7 turn. 

558
00:31:56,700 --> 00:31:58,600
Turn type of player. 
Like I can talk myself into 

559
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,900
those guys being like, legit 
high-end kind of breakout 

560
00:32:01,900 --> 00:32:06,600
candidates, but maybe that's 
maybe I'm waiting too long. 

561
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:09,000
Maybe I'm delusional. 
If I think those guys are really

562
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:12,600
going to keep up with the, the 
wide receiver, heavy teams early

563
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:15,000
on. 
Yeah, yeah, to answer the 

564
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:18,100
question from earlier about, 
like when the new cutoff is four

565
00:32:18,100 --> 00:32:21,800
wide receivers, if we just look 
at kind of I guess, the macro 

566
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:26,400
level receivers are going around
six to eight pics earlier than 

567
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:27,800
last. 
You're so if you just take the 

568
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:32,700
end of round 6 cut off that, 
we've been using a lot and apply

569
00:32:32,700 --> 00:32:36,200
it then we'd say maybe middle of
the sixth round which kind of I 

570
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:37,900
think aligns with the micro 
level. 

571
00:32:37,900 --> 00:32:41,300
Take just looking at the guys in
the middle or later half of the 

572
00:32:41,300 --> 00:32:43,000
sixth round. 
That maybe like that group 

573
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:44,800
though. 
I like they're literally half a 

574
00:32:44,808 --> 00:32:45,800
six-round. 
Yeah. 

575
00:32:46,300 --> 00:32:49,500
I like like through Addison, 
maybe, which I guess is the same

576
00:32:49,500 --> 00:32:53,200
cut off of used later. 
I feel like maybe after that, I 

577
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,200
start feeling a little worse 
about them. 

578
00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:59,200
Yeah. 
Yeah, I like Pickens and and 

579
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:02,400
Dawson, okay? 
I like Gabe and Johnson, okay, 

580
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:05,200
too? 
Yeah, that's where it gets a 

581
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,600
little iffy for me. 
I'm a little skeptical. 

582
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,800
Gabe Johnson Cooks a larger more
baby, but I've like, I 

583
00:33:10,808 --> 00:33:12,700
understand that you can have 
different takes on those, but I 

584
00:33:12,708 --> 00:33:15,700
think you have to at least like 
once you get the Tony like if we

585
00:33:15,700 --> 00:33:18,700
can if each of us individually 
start to see profiles or were 

586
00:33:18,700 --> 00:33:20,800
like oh I don't know about that.
It probably means that in 

587
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:24,900
general that range is a little 
bit like questionable if that 

588
00:33:24,900 --> 00:33:26,600
that makes yeah. 
Yeah but I like the lace. 

589
00:33:26,700 --> 00:33:30,100
Eight, the late six, right? 
I mean, if you just want to say,

590
00:33:30,100 --> 00:33:32,100
I guess the on say is kind of 
moved into the early six but he 

591
00:33:32,108 --> 00:33:36,300
was late six for a long time and
then Evans Burke's Addison, I 

592
00:33:36,300 --> 00:33:38,200
mean that feels like a pretty 
pretty strong group. 

593
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,100
Actually Yeah, I agree with 
that. 

594
00:33:41,100 --> 00:33:45,500
Maybe after Addison, just kind 
of on the micro level in terms 

595
00:33:45,500 --> 00:33:49,900
of how it feels. 
But I guess part of, I mean, 

596
00:33:49,900 --> 00:33:52,700
it's interesting because part of
the whole point of the, our be 

597
00:33:52,700 --> 00:33:56,500
dead zone is that we're like 
it's not based on the micro 

598
00:33:56,500 --> 00:34:00,600
level, right? 
It's based on like, yeah, the 

599
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:06,900
systemic efficiencies or lack 
thereof but it's like it is that

600
00:34:06,900 --> 00:34:11,199
systemic efficiency is based on 
ATP isn't Magic, right? 

601
00:34:11,199 --> 00:34:15,199
It's like their specific types 
of profiles, tend to go in 

602
00:34:15,199 --> 00:34:20,000
certain ranges of the draft and 
my thinking on this is that 

603
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,699
those profiles as they move up 
and down, are still likely to be

604
00:34:22,699 --> 00:34:25,699
sort of grouped somewhat 
together because the market as a

605
00:34:25,699 --> 00:34:30,699
whole is kind of valuing, like, 
you know, we've got our Surefire

606
00:34:30,699 --> 00:34:34,100
running backs, we've got our, 
you know, got a, got a question 

607
00:34:34,100 --> 00:34:36,199
mark or two, but man, the 
upsides appealing. 

608
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:40,000
Then you get into, like, I think
this guy might suck like half 

609
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,800
the market thinks he sucks, but 
the workload is going to be 

610
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:45,800
there and like to me, that's not
Joe Harris, you know, like half 

611
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:51,100
the markets, like, pretty much 
out on his profile and so he to 

612
00:34:51,100 --> 00:34:54,199
me signal sort of the start of 
like the traditional Dead Zone 

613
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:56,600
and yeah and it's at the very 
end of the third round of the 

614
00:34:56,600 --> 00:35:00,200
early fourth. 
So it's about like trying to 

615
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:03,800
find that pocket of the draft 
which still is going to exist 

616
00:35:04,500 --> 00:35:09,000
and then trying to figure Out of
those prices relative to what 

617
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:11,400
you can get at the other 
positions or are still too 

618
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:13,000
pricey. 
Yeah. 

619
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:16,600
So I got a point off that pad 
that exactly kind of transitions

620
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:20,100
into where I wanted to go next. 
This chart here, I wanted to 

621
00:35:20,100 --> 00:35:22,600
sort of show. 
So we talked about 20, 22, the 

622
00:35:22,607 --> 00:35:26,200
ADP was different, running backs
for price down a little bit and 

623
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:28,900
it kind of like things kind of, 
Smooths out between water, super

624
00:35:28,900 --> 00:35:31,500
running back scoring. 
I think we now have to look 

625
00:35:31,500 --> 00:35:36,200
towards 2023 where there's been 
another, like 2022, was already 

626
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:39,400
a pretty big Shivan atp's. 
Now we have an even bigger shift

627
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:43,600
in 2023, so this is just looking
at running back ones, on 

628
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:48,800
Underdog, the last four years 
and to me this this chart is 

629
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:53,400
incredibly striking like the the
rb7 this year, Tony Pollard, 

630
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:58,800
which is one of the sort of 
bright green lines in the 2023. 

631
00:35:59,100 --> 00:36:02,900
He's going later than any 
running back. 12 went over the 

632
00:36:02,900 --> 00:36:06,100
last three years and these were 
guys like, I don't know, Kenyan 

633
00:36:06,100 --> 00:36:08,900
Drake and Some of these running 
back profiles, were terrible 

634
00:36:08,900 --> 00:36:11,400
picks for the record mostly they
were terrible. 

635
00:36:11,500 --> 00:36:15,600
Well, terrible, but it was also 
like Jonathan Taylor years. 

636
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:17,200
It was around running back 12, 
right? 

637
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:19,600
Like so there's definitely 
wasn't really what you running 

638
00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:23,100
back 12 that year, crazy. 
I don't think I can. 

639
00:36:23,100 --> 00:36:24,900
I think I think he was he was an
early second. 

640
00:36:24,900 --> 00:36:28,300
Well pick, he was eight to 
twelve, he was a running back. 

641
00:36:30,500 --> 00:36:33,500
He's running back nine by 
closing ATP but that's the 

642
00:36:33,500 --> 00:36:35,100
thing. 
Rest of the running back. 

643
00:36:35,100 --> 00:36:39,200
Nine used to be Once you turn 
pic now the running back nine is

644
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:41,900
like a mid third thick. 
So yeah, that's kind of the 

645
00:36:41,900 --> 00:36:45,300
point of this chart. 
And the question I have for you 

646
00:36:45,300 --> 00:36:48,800
guys is like, I think the big 
thing to figure out right is 

647
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:54,800
like, are this year's running 
back profiles like uniquely bad?

648
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:57,100
And that's why they're being 
priced down? 

649
00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:01,100
Or is there just like this 
systemic anti running back bias 

650
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:05,400
based off like, you know, 
people's perception of the data 

651
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:06,900
last year? 
That's true. 

652
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:08,800
Doing these things down. 
I don't know that it's fair. 

653
00:37:09,100 --> 00:37:12,600
I would just be careful about 
calling it a bias because we are

654
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:15,600
coming off a year. 
We're running back. 

655
00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:19,200
ATP was down significantly and 
the move was to avoid running 

656
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:22,400
backs early. 
So like it is it is possible 

657
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:26,900
that the market has just been 
drafting these backs like too 

658
00:37:26,900 --> 00:37:32,800
early for a very, very long time
and It could be the case that 

659
00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:37,000
going 0, running back this year.
Is now a bad idea. 

660
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:42,000
But even if that's true, I think
that hero running back could be 

661
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:45,100
the way to go, you know what I 
mean that the diving in like 

662
00:37:45,100 --> 00:37:47,500
that hyper fragile still might 
have a hard time in this 

663
00:37:47,500 --> 00:37:51,900
environment because of how gross
it gets at wide receiver when 

664
00:37:51,900 --> 00:37:53,600
all the wide receivers are 
priced up like this. 

665
00:37:55,100 --> 00:37:56,600
Yeah. 
Jack, you have any thoughts on 

666
00:37:56,600 --> 00:37:59,500
it? 
Like this year's running backs 

667
00:37:59,500 --> 00:38:03,200
are uniquely these. 
This year's running back ones 

668
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,400
are like uniquely worse than 
they've been in years past. 

669
00:38:07,100 --> 00:38:09,200
I don't think like 
overwhelmingly. 

670
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:15,200
So, um, I mean I was, I was kind
of like, leaning toward yes. 

671
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:17,500
But then like, Pat brought up, 
like Kenyan Drake. 

672
00:38:17,500 --> 00:38:20,200
And These Guys, these are the 
guys that were going in in the 

673
00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:22,100
first round like only a couple 
years ago. 

674
00:38:22,100 --> 00:38:25,000
So I think it's such a pain. 
It's point. 

675
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:27,600
I think it's like a correction 
because I think there is a lot 

676
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:30,400
of data showing that the more 
wide receiver. 

677
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:34,900
Heavy starts have been optimal 
and so people are, you know, 

678
00:38:34,900 --> 00:38:39,100
naturally shifting toward that. 
But I guess the question is 

679
00:38:39,100 --> 00:38:42,900
like, if we've trended into like
over correction territory 

680
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:45,800
because of this chart is pretty 
jarring. 

681
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:50,000
So maybe there is an argument 
that the running backs this year

682
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:56,000
are slightly worse, but I don't 
think Yeah, I mean I don't 

683
00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:58,900
really think they're 
overwhelmingly worse. 

684
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:03,500
Such that it would justify a 
change of this extent, I guess. 

685
00:39:03,500 --> 00:39:07,800
Yeah, I don't think so either. 
I mean sorry pack pack. 

686
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:12,000
Glad you have thoughts on that. 
Yeah I have some so to me the 

687
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:19,500
the profiles are I think the 
profiles through like You know, 

688
00:39:19,500 --> 00:39:22,100
8 through 11 are not really any 
worse. 

689
00:39:23,300 --> 00:39:30,400
When you look at me, pull up the
ATP so Jacobs Henry, Pollard, 

690
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:33,900
that grouping briefs. 
Yeah, I like Polly like polish. 

691
00:39:33,900 --> 00:39:38,600
So if you go down from running 
back, seven, Pollard, Henry 

692
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:44,400
Stevenson Jacobs Hall and Harris
especially if we flip Harris and

693
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:47,500
etn, which I would always do. 
Yeah, let's do that. 

694
00:39:47,500 --> 00:39:50,500
Feels like yeah. 
Let's just do that market get 

695
00:39:50,500 --> 00:39:54,900
that get that right to me that's
like a very strong like a very 

696
00:39:54,900 --> 00:40:00,900
strong group of running backs 
from 7 to 12 and to me that's 

697
00:40:00,900 --> 00:40:04,500
the that's the group that I want
to be overweight on. 

698
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:13,100
And I think when you can get 
those guys in the third round, I

699
00:40:13,100 --> 00:40:15,000
mean it does. 
It really does open up some 

700
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:18,400
things for you and your draft at
the same. 

701
00:40:18,700 --> 00:40:23,100
I'm it creates downward pressure
on the early running backs 

702
00:40:23,100 --> 00:40:28,200
because it's like, okay I only 
need one you know maybe I don't 

703
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:32,300
need but I would probably prefer
to have Max 2 of these guys in 

704
00:40:32,300 --> 00:40:35,500
the early rounds and so I'm 
sitting there looking at be John

705
00:40:35,500 --> 00:40:39,300
Robinson and the lady first you 
know at the 108 I'm like should 

706
00:40:39,300 --> 00:40:42,100
I take Bichons like or Eckler? 
It's like I might be able to get

707
00:40:42,100 --> 00:40:44,300
breezier in the late 3rd. 
I might be able get Ramon Dre in

708
00:40:44,300 --> 00:40:48,800
the late 3rd Jacobs maybe even 
like Why am I why am I going to 

709
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:51,100
take this guy? 
Like I can get wide receiver 

710
00:40:51,100 --> 00:40:55,400
wide receiver to me, there's 
like a pretty big tear break 

711
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:59,600
that happens around, you know, 
Crystal Lobby of Devante Smith. 

712
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:03,600
So I get two guys before that to
your break and then I can go get

713
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:06,300
briefs and maybe I can. 
If I want to take etn coming 

714
00:41:06,300 --> 00:41:10,500
back in the fourth like All 
right, I feel pretty good about 

715
00:41:10,500 --> 00:41:11,800
that. 
Start it create. 

716
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:14,100
It's like one of these things 
where, if no one's valuing them 

717
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:20,100
because we I think a big part of
this is like you just has never 

718
00:41:20,100 --> 00:41:23,700
worked to go through robust 
running back that has never 

719
00:41:23,700 --> 00:41:28,800
worked and like that would be we
almost need us a year like we're

720
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:32,400
taking five running backs in the
first seven rounds was optimal. 

721
00:41:32,500 --> 00:41:35,900
Like we need that here because 
otherwise because I / fragile 

722
00:41:35,900 --> 00:41:39,200
isn't even a true counter to 
this hyper fragile saying, I'm 

723
00:41:39,200 --> 00:41:42,200
going to get my three, you know,
I'm gonna get my to and grab one

724
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:44,700
of the six or whatever, and then
stop it for whatever you do, 

725
00:41:44,700 --> 00:41:46,300
however, you want to kind of do 
it. 

726
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:49,300
Environment. 
But even then, you're still 

727
00:41:49,300 --> 00:41:50,900
limiting. 
The total Capital spend at 

728
00:41:50,900 --> 00:41:52,900
running back. 
It's like a fragile. 

729
00:41:52,900 --> 00:41:55,700
Originally was a counter to 
robust running back in some 

730
00:41:55,700 --> 00:41:58,600
ways. 
It was an account or 20 running 

731
00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:00,600
back. 
Yeah. 

732
00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:07,600
It's and so, I agree with that 
and I am not suggesting that 

733
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:09,900
robust. 
Our B is like, the, the counter.

734
00:42:10,100 --> 00:42:13,800
I do think that like, what has 
shown up as a good strategy and 

735
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:16,600
maybe not last year, it didn't 
show up very well, but but 

736
00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:19,600
getting two running backs in the
first three rounds or first. 

737
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:24,400
Four rounds that did pretty well
in 2022 years ago, I want. 

738
00:42:24,500 --> 00:42:27,100
Yeah, it was and limiting 
limiting, you know, still 

739
00:42:27,100 --> 00:42:30,100
limiting total Capital spent 
running back but getting to guys

740
00:42:30,100 --> 00:42:33,600
early and then, you know, 
waiting a bit to get your third 

741
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:37,200
and fourth. 
I think like and I tweeted about

742
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:41,100
this, I don't need to go into 
all the details, but I think 

743
00:42:41,100 --> 00:42:44,100
that's the counter to this 
year's drafting landscape and 

744
00:42:44,100 --> 00:42:48,200
I'm not like reaching a shit ton
1080p Taking like Nick Chubb in 

745
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:51,500
the first round over the Vontae 
atoms or doing stuff like that. 

746
00:42:51,500 --> 00:42:54,900
But just like in general, 
through three rounds, I'm going 

747
00:42:54,900 --> 00:42:57,700
to have two running backs on 
like a huge percentage of my 

748
00:42:57,700 --> 00:42:59,500
team. 
And I know just looking at the 

749
00:42:59,508 --> 00:43:02,000
numbers, like, only 12 running 
backs are going in the first 

750
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:03,800
three rounds. 
So, if I'm doing that most of 

751
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:06,500
the time, then I'm going to be 
overweight that strategy, 

752
00:43:06,500 --> 00:43:09,100
compared the field. 
That's going to be my way. 

753
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:13,800
I think of attacking this, what 
I see as a bit of an over 

754
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:16,200
correction and this running back
landscape. 

755
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:21,200
Eep. 
I have some data here that this 

756
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:24,300
is like, obviously it's a little
bit cherry-pick, but I was 

757
00:43:24,300 --> 00:43:27,900
trying to do a micro analysis 
of, okay, this year basically 

758
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:33,400
running backs to through 12 and 
wide receivers 7 through, 20 are

759
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:36,600
basically being drafted in the 
same range where assist Oracle, 

760
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:39,400
it used to be that like running 
back to through 12 would be 

761
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:42,200
drafted, like ahead of wide 
receivers, like, one through 

762
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:44,000
six. 
That's why Zero running back was

763
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:46,200
so good and like 2020 2021, 
right? 

764
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:49,200
Why in theory was really good, 
but now it's like the opposite, 

765
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:50,600
right? 
We're wide. 

766
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:54,100
Receiver twos are going like 
ahead of some low end, our be 

767
00:43:54,100 --> 00:43:56,200
ones. 
So if you just take that 

768
00:43:56,200 --> 00:44:01,600
grouping historically and go 
backwards, the running back one 

769
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:07,000
group generates Spike weeks like
points above replacement at 

770
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:12,700
basically 150% or to 200% more 
than the wide receiver grouping 

771
00:44:12,700 --> 00:44:15,800
does in that range. 
So that's why it again like I'm 

772
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:17,600
not saying it. 
You know, roster construction, I

773
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:20,400
still acknowledge you need one 
more wide receiver, an underdog 

774
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:22,000
than you need. 
Running back all that. 

775
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:24,100
I'm not saying I'm not saying 
throw that all out the window 

776
00:44:24,100 --> 00:44:26,500
and only look at this. 
I'm just saying like this 

777
00:44:26,500 --> 00:44:30,600
discrepancy in the spike weeks 
given that I think this year's 

778
00:44:30,600 --> 00:44:33,400
running back ones are not like 
uniquely bad by any means, 

779
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:37,600
particularly the low end ones. 
That's why I think like a pretty

780
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:41,100
clear counter to me is to go 
with the two running backs 

781
00:44:41,100 --> 00:44:44,400
through three rounds again. 
Like Derrick Henry and Josh 

782
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:46,200
Gibson, get injured and weak, 
one this year. 

783
00:44:46,300 --> 00:44:48,400
Year and the strategy blows up 
in my face like I acknowledge 

784
00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:52,100
it's not a hundred percent going
to work, but from looking at the

785
00:44:52,100 --> 00:44:54,900
data, that's what I think is, is
the best counter to this 

786
00:44:54,900 --> 00:44:58,100
landscape. 
Yeah, I tend to lean that it's 

787
00:44:58,100 --> 00:45:01,100
that it's one through. 
The first three is kind of the 

788
00:45:01,100 --> 00:45:07,300
optimal counter because again, 
the wide receivers being priced 

789
00:45:07,300 --> 00:45:09,600
up so much like, really, really 
stings? 

790
00:45:10,700 --> 00:45:14,900
And so it's like it's about as 
well at what can you get like 

791
00:45:14,900 --> 00:45:19,100
later in the draft? 
But can you can you find some of

792
00:45:19,100 --> 00:45:21,100
that running back upside later 
in the draft? 

793
00:45:21,300 --> 00:45:23,700
And is there any wide receiver 
upside left? 

794
00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:28,800
And so I do take, I take plenty 
of two running backs through the

795
00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:30,900
first three rounds. 
As I mentioned, I just did two 

796
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:34,600
three running backs to the first
three round starts, which I try 

797
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:38,800
not to do, but if I, if I can 
get guys from like, I don't know

798
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:43,000
like McCaffrey Pollard and 
briefs could be like the top 

799
00:45:43,000 --> 00:45:45,600
three picks of like, you know, 
we were drafting for the back 

800
00:45:45,600 --> 00:45:48,100
half of the Season, you know, 
depending on how the season 

801
00:45:48,100 --> 00:45:50,700
breaks, we like those are the 
top three guys you want. 

802
00:45:51,000 --> 00:45:53,700
So, you know, I will make 
exceptions there. 

803
00:45:53,700 --> 00:45:56,500
But yeah, I think two running 
backs 33 is Ali, fine. 

804
00:45:56,500 --> 00:45:58,900
I I tend to prefer one through 
three. 

805
00:46:00,000 --> 00:46:04,000
Because I'm more of a micro take
thing which is that I really 

806
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:07,900
fucking feel the tier break, you
know, you can argue if it's 

807
00:46:07,900 --> 00:46:11,400
Devonte, T. 
I think it's I think there's 

808
00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:13,700
like maybe even many to your 
brakes there because like to go 

809
00:46:13,700 --> 00:46:16,900
from T 2 DK Metcalf feels like a
big tear break to me as well. 

810
00:46:16,900 --> 00:46:19,900
And so I'm sitting there I'm 
like, it's either a quarterback 

811
00:46:19,900 --> 00:46:22,600
Mark Andrews or running back in 
the third round for me right 

812
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:26,600
now. 
And I like, I like having two 

813
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:30,800
wide receivers before that if I 
can do it like I I'd rather go 

814
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:37,500
cup a lava then cup, JT, you 
know, and I think like in a 

815
00:46:37,508 --> 00:46:42,300
vacuum cup, JT's a better combo,
but when I can go couple, Ave 

816
00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:46,100
Jacobs, or couple of a breeze or
couple of a Henry and I like 

817
00:46:46,100 --> 00:46:48,600
basically no one of those guys 
going to be there a room, Andre 

818
00:46:48,900 --> 00:46:51,000
I like know for a fact I'm going
to be able to get a really good 

819
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:55,200
running back pick and that third
I just start to feel like my 

820
00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:58,400
overall rosters better if I if I
break ties to the one running 

821
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:02,400
back I understand that. 
I've yeah, I disagree, but I 

822
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:05,000
understand that I just think 
that, like, I don't want to 

823
00:47:05,008 --> 00:47:08,700
overthink the that selection, 
too much bass in Ross for 

824
00:47:08,700 --> 00:47:10,700
construction. 
When I just think that like, JT 

825
00:47:10,700 --> 00:47:14,500
chub like these profiles. 
Historically have way more 

826
00:47:14,500 --> 00:47:16,600
upside than a lot of not saying.
A lot of it doesn't have upside,

827
00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:19,900
he can hit, but just like 
zooming out, right? 

828
00:47:19,900 --> 00:47:23,600
But I think I disagree. 
I think a lot of is let me suck 

829
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:26,900
in your wide receiver who is you
know, Target earner first-round 

830
00:47:26,900 --> 00:47:28,300
pick. 
I think that okay. 

831
00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:30,700
Yeah it's not it's not of mine. 
Girls love it. 

832
00:47:30,700 --> 00:47:32,400
Yeah, sorry it's not a micro law
they take. 

833
00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:34,200
I guess I'm just more going back
to this Pat. 

834
00:47:34,200 --> 00:47:36,800
We're like you look at the wide 
receivers that the market has 

835
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:38,800
priced in this range. 
Historically, verse the Rhine 

836
00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:41,000
backside pressure in the 
strangest or Klee like it's not 

837
00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:44,400
even close. 
Frankly like 150 to 200 percent 

838
00:47:44,400 --> 00:47:47,700
higher odds of Spike week, like,
but I understand the roster 

839
00:47:47,700 --> 00:47:51,800
construction point of view. 
But right, this is only one part

840
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:53,600
of it though. 
This is yeah, exactly. 

841
00:47:53,900 --> 00:47:56,200
Yeah, it's one thing. 
But I just think that big of a 

842
00:47:56,207 --> 00:47:58,500
discrepancy in the odds of a 
spike week. 

843
00:47:58,500 --> 00:48:02,400
I'm going to say I'm going to 
like maybe take the minor hit to

844
00:48:02,400 --> 00:48:04,900
the roster construction argument
and figure out wide receiver 

845
00:48:04,900 --> 00:48:09,000
later and like just take the Arc
Type of player that historically

846
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:11,000
has gotten, you know? 
It's like weeks ago, I get 

847
00:48:11,000 --> 00:48:13,800
three. 
But Jack curious, what your, 

848
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:15,700
what Your approach has been 
through. 

849
00:48:15,700 --> 00:48:17,900
You know, let's talk early round
roster construction. 

850
00:48:17,900 --> 00:48:21,100
Do you have, like a preferred 
through three rounds strategy 

851
00:48:21,100 --> 00:48:22,700
and Underdog? 
Are you kind of mixing it up? 

852
00:48:22,700 --> 00:48:25,800
Or how are you sir? 
Trained at this year for me? 

853
00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:28,200
I think it kind of comes down to
like the micro player. 

854
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:29,900
Takes a little bit, like, I 
really like it. 

855
00:48:30,000 --> 00:48:33,000
Nick Chubb, this year, I love 
Jacobs around three. 

856
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:34,800
Lots of I can get like two of 
the guys. 

857
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:37,900
I really like I'm more inclined 
to go to running backs through 

858
00:48:37,900 --> 00:48:43,500
three otherwise I'm fine with 
one like Pat mentioned. 

859
00:48:43,500 --> 00:48:49,400
I do think this year compared to
last I can be more fluid because

860
00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:53,700
I feel like in previous years 
with the dead zone it was almost

861
00:48:53,700 --> 00:48:57,500
like a like a checklist of 
grafting. 

862
00:48:57,500 --> 00:48:59,900
Like you would first like the 
first two rounds. 

863
00:49:00,300 --> 00:49:03,200
I did like one running back 
sometimes to and then I was 

864
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:06,100
literally just almost 
thoughtlessly drafting. 

865
00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:10,200
Yeah wide receivers whereas this
year with things so different 

866
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:14,800
I'm more willing to just take 
both positions and take the 

867
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:19,300
value where it lies because the 
price points are so different. 

868
00:49:19,300 --> 00:49:22,100
And then, I mean, I guess 
there's also something to be 

869
00:49:22,100 --> 00:49:24,900
said for if we think this is a 
correction. 

870
00:49:24,900 --> 00:49:30,400
I'm not just like a crazy bias 
that people have because we've 

871
00:49:30,400 --> 00:49:33,300
seen that you know, wide 
receiver, every states have been

872
00:49:33,300 --> 00:49:36,000
so good. 
So if it's a correction toward 

873
00:49:36,000 --> 00:49:38,900
efficiency and maybe it's an 
overcorrection and there's I 

874
00:49:38,900 --> 00:49:43,500
guess more reason to trust the 
market whereas in previous 

875
00:49:43,500 --> 00:49:49,100
years, we could, you know, 
differ more if that makes any 

876
00:49:49,100 --> 00:49:49,900
sense at all. 
Yeah. 

877
00:49:49,900 --> 00:49:54,200
We like I guess from a running 
back and wide receiver 

878
00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:57,600
perspective, I'm leaning into 
the market, a lot more than I 

879
00:49:57,600 --> 00:50:01,600
was in previous years instead of
going Into let's say around for 

880
00:50:01,600 --> 00:50:04,000
saying like I'm taking a 
receiver here unless our running

881
00:50:04,000 --> 00:50:07,300
back Falls absurdly past ATP. 
And I think that that kind of 

882
00:50:07,300 --> 00:50:09,800
extends to the first few rounds 
as well. 

883
00:50:09,800 --> 00:50:12,800
Like I'll just, you know, follow
the market to some extent. 

884
00:50:13,400 --> 00:50:15,300
That's fair. 
Yeah, it's really interesting. 

885
00:50:15,300 --> 00:50:19,400
The point you brought up about 
like, yeah, I think the way the 

886
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:23,200
market is corrected opens up way
more unique constructions, like 

887
00:50:23,200 --> 00:50:26,400
it used to be right? 
Like, I'm basically just closing

888
00:50:26,400 --> 00:50:29,000
my eyes or, you know, on 
selecting the running back to 

889
00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:31,500
have and rounds through Sex in 
Prior years and like completely 

890
00:50:31,500 --> 00:50:34,700
ignoring them, besides maybe one
or two specific Targets this 

891
00:50:34,700 --> 00:50:36,300
year. 
I'm like way more open to like 

892
00:50:36,600 --> 00:50:38,400
most picks in that range. 
So I feel like there have been 

893
00:50:38,400 --> 00:50:41,100
priced appropriately, so that's 
an interesting way of putting it

894
00:50:41,100 --> 00:50:44,700
where it's like, there's not as 
many clear rules I think anymore

895
00:50:44,700 --> 00:50:46,800
about like when you can and 
can't take running back. 

896
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:49,400
So if you want to build like an 
anchor running back team with 

897
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:51,200
like Joe Mixon or Kenneth 
Walker. 

898
00:50:51,200 --> 00:50:53,600
Like I think that's interesting.
You can do that like there's all

899
00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:57,300
these unique unique ways, you 
can play it the landscape this 

900
00:50:57,300 --> 00:50:58,700
year. 
That's just something saying 

901
00:50:58,700 --> 00:51:00,500
that. 
At some point. 

902
00:51:00,700 --> 00:51:03,400
I agree. 
Although I, I will say I'm 

903
00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:07,100
pretty underweight in jazz a 
group, what we would probably 

904
00:51:07,100 --> 00:51:13,500
call the traditional Dead Zone 
backs like I'm I'm let's say I'm

905
00:51:13,500 --> 00:51:17,400
like way underweight Nagi. 
I don't really consider etn, 

906
00:51:17,400 --> 00:51:20,900
like it classic DeadZone back is
entering his second actual year 

907
00:51:20,900 --> 00:51:25,200
in the NFL, after missing his 
rookie season Gibbs is, is a 

908
00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:27,800
kind of classic Dead Zone back 
as a rookie, but one of the 

909
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:30,100
types that we would want to be 
targeting in The Dead Zone, 

910
00:51:30,200 --> 00:51:33,700
historically, so I don't mind 
him mixing has its own issues, 

911
00:51:33,700 --> 00:51:36,000
he's tough. 
But like, I don't have a ton of 

912
00:51:36,000 --> 00:51:37,900
Walker that will take him in the
mid to late 5th. 

913
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:40,000
Aaron Jones. 
I'm underweight on. 

914
00:51:40,000 --> 00:51:41,700
I will take him sometimes JK 
diamonds. 

915
00:51:42,300 --> 00:51:44,700
I actually kind of like Jake 
Adams a little bit Madison. 

916
00:51:44,700 --> 00:51:47,500
I'm on our way Sanders. 
I'm Sanders is like the 

917
00:51:47,500 --> 00:51:51,000
quintessential DeadZone back to 
me, like he fits kind of all the

918
00:51:51,000 --> 00:51:56,200
stuff from years past, but what 
I'm curious about Jackie's, 

919
00:51:56,200 --> 00:52:00,600
like, what what's your view On 
The Backs? 

920
00:52:00,600 --> 00:52:04,400
Let's say like, starting with 
with actually sleep, let's say 

921
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:08,900
starting with Madison because 
you will see Madison and Sanders

922
00:52:08,900 --> 00:52:15,200
and Peers sometimes fall into 
the seventh round and then acres

923
00:52:15,700 --> 00:52:20,100
has basically a seventh-round 
ATP and then Swift Pacheco. 

924
00:52:20,100 --> 00:52:23,300
Dalvin cook, David Montgomery, 
were shot white, James, Conner, 

925
00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:30,400
Javonte Williams, James Cook, 
takes you until pick 96, and so 

926
00:52:31,600 --> 00:52:36,900
that range of the draft, I would
say it's fair is fair to say 

927
00:52:36,900 --> 00:52:39,700
that wide receiver. 
We have had a tear break at that

928
00:52:39,700 --> 00:52:44,800
point and and these guys are 
also sort of classic DeadZone 

929
00:52:44,800 --> 00:52:48,000
backs, right? 
David Montgomery like 

930
00:52:48,300 --> 00:52:50,000
quintessential Dead Zone back 
of. 

931
00:52:50,000 --> 00:52:53,700
He was a sixth-round pick but 
he's got an ATP at the end of 

932
00:52:53,700 --> 00:52:55,200
the seventh. 
You can get them in the eighth 

933
00:52:55,200 --> 00:52:58,900
round then that that's actually 
to me where like want to talk 

934
00:52:58,900 --> 00:53:00,500
about. 
Like the shifting prices of The 

935
00:53:00,500 --> 00:53:03,700
Dead Zone. 
This is the part of the classic 

936
00:53:03,700 --> 00:53:05,800
dead. 
Zone that I'm kind of eating up 

937
00:53:05,800 --> 00:53:09,500
the backs in, I'm sort of still 
passing again. 

938
00:53:09,500 --> 00:53:12,200
I will take Jones and diamonds 
and some those guys sometimes 

939
00:53:12,200 --> 00:53:15,800
but I'm like, underweight. 
The group of running backs that 

940
00:53:15,800 --> 00:53:19,700
still falling in like round the 
end of round five but I'm pretty

941
00:53:19,700 --> 00:53:21,300
overweight the group of running 
backs. 

942
00:53:21,600 --> 00:53:26,000
That's actually like falling 
into you know, around 7. 8, 9. 

943
00:53:26,800 --> 00:53:33,400
Yeah, I guess my question for 
you then would be if we're kind 

944
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:35,900
of compare. 
In the market to where it was in

945
00:53:35,900 --> 00:53:39,100
previous years. 
Do you think that like Mi 

946
00:53:39,100 --> 00:53:42,500
Sanders in previous years would 
have had the same ATP that were 

947
00:53:43,100 --> 00:53:45,800
no pairing. 
So then like figured it out like

948
00:53:45,800 --> 00:53:49,500
a fourth-round pick so then like
even though he has the classic 

949
00:53:49,500 --> 00:53:55,700
Dead Zone like archetype I don't
have like an answer to this but 

950
00:53:55,700 --> 00:53:59,000
can't I how can we be sure that 
like him in the sixth round is 

951
00:53:59,000 --> 00:54:01,200
bad right? 
To me. 

952
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:05,600
It's less about Sanders 
specifically you know and like 

953
00:54:05,600 --> 00:54:07,800
the archetype specifically and 
more about what's happening at 

954
00:54:07,800 --> 00:54:12,200
wide receiver. 
So it's like my bet is that wide

955
00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:14,800
receiver hasn't fallen off yet 
is really what it is. 

956
00:54:14,900 --> 00:54:17,500
Is that I'm the opportunity cost
remains High. 

957
00:54:18,400 --> 00:54:21,400
My gut feel is that the 
opportunity cost remains High 

958
00:54:21,400 --> 00:54:24,600
when I'm looking at Sanders 
compared To the wide receivers 

959
00:54:24,600 --> 00:54:27,200
around there and that the way 
I've constructed my teams, 

960
00:54:27,700 --> 00:54:31,000
especially if I built the way 
Sam, builds and gone to in the 

961
00:54:31,000 --> 00:54:33,100
first three. 
Like, I don't even know that I 

962
00:54:33,100 --> 00:54:35,700
have the flexibility to take 
Sanders over the wide receiver 

963
00:54:35,700 --> 00:54:37,700
in that range. 
Like I kind of have to take the 

964
00:54:37,700 --> 00:54:39,900
wide receiver there. 
You know, it's the way I think 

965
00:54:39,900 --> 00:54:43,900
about it. 
So that's like why I'm shying 

966
00:54:43,900 --> 00:54:47,700
away from Sanders, even though I
do agree there's probably maybe 

967
00:54:47,700 --> 00:54:49,900
even like a to Route maybe 
benefit from pick but I would 

968
00:54:49,900 --> 00:54:53,100
say at least around discount 
relative to us like 20 1980 P. 

969
00:54:53,600 --> 00:54:54,500
Yeah. 
Yeah, for sure. 

970
00:54:54,500 --> 00:55:00,100
And I think that makes sense. 
I agree with you on Sanders from

971
00:55:00,100 --> 00:55:03,000
a micro-level. 
I just feel like, less certain 

972
00:55:03,000 --> 00:55:05,800
in that because the price is so 
different. 

973
00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:09,300
But I do agree with you. 
That I feel a lot better taking 

974
00:55:09,700 --> 00:55:12,100
these guys later, like, David 
Montgomery. 

975
00:55:12,100 --> 00:55:17,100
I think is, is a great value 
right now and other guys in 

976
00:55:17,100 --> 00:55:18,900
these range to. 
All right? 

977
00:55:19,200 --> 00:55:22,100
Connors no one challenging him. 
He's old and he's on a terrible 

978
00:55:22,100 --> 00:55:25,500
offense. 
But like Like, you know, Zero 

979
00:55:25,500 --> 00:55:28,700
running back. 
Sam you talked about earlier how

980
00:55:28,700 --> 00:55:31,800
you could get like these amazing
wide receivers in the early 

981
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:35,600
rounds in like 20 you know, 15 
or whatever which was naturally 

982
00:55:35,600 --> 00:55:38,400
true. 
But what then you were left with

983
00:55:38,400 --> 00:55:43,000
is like committee backs in like 
around seven. 

984
00:55:43,800 --> 00:55:47,000
You know, you were like taking 
guys that we were taking that we

985
00:55:47,000 --> 00:55:50,800
are now taking in like the tenth
round or the 11th round or even 

986
00:55:50,800 --> 00:55:54,200
like the 12th round sometimes 
would be like your or B2 and so 

987
00:55:54,200 --> 00:55:58,300
like it does feel to me like as 
much as James Conner comes with 

988
00:55:58,300 --> 00:56:01,900
all sorts of risks and, you 
know, could be a total disaster.

989
00:56:03,100 --> 00:56:05,500
I'm like, that's a profile is 
not up in price like this 

990
00:56:05,500 --> 00:56:09,900
historically. 
Yeah, I agree with that and and 

991
00:56:09,900 --> 00:56:14,100
like, I have brought up that and
I'll show this chart here that 

992
00:56:14,100 --> 00:56:17,400
like once you get to a certain 
point at least relative to last 

993
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:19,500
year again. 
Reminder last year running backs

994
00:56:19,500 --> 00:56:21,900
were still price down, but at 
least relative to last year, 

995
00:56:21,900 --> 00:56:25,400
once you get the running back, 
like 30 3249, the prices, aren't

996
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:28,400
that much different, but Connor 
is, Rarely in the range where 

997
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:30,900
the prices are heavily 
discounted to last year. 

998
00:56:31,000 --> 00:56:33,600
So I guess he's had that like 
this was the range to take 

999
00:56:33,600 --> 00:56:36,200
running backs like even if they 
were the same price as last 

1000
00:56:36,200 --> 00:56:40,700
year, you'd be like great. 
This was just what worked So, 

1001
00:56:40,700 --> 00:56:43,800
yeah, I'm with you that like, 
and maybe this is where we 

1002
00:56:43,808 --> 00:56:46,400
differ. 
Where like I do a lot of bills 

1003
00:56:46,400 --> 00:56:49,500
where I go to running backs 
through three and then I hammer 

1004
00:56:49,500 --> 00:56:52,100
wide receiver. 
Maybe I take four rounds three 

1005
00:56:52,100 --> 00:56:54,800
through six. 
Is that right? 

1006
00:56:54,800 --> 00:56:55,800
Yeah. 
And then I guess around seven 

1007
00:56:55,800 --> 00:56:59,000
and eight and if I'm staring at 
like David Montgomery or James, 

1008
00:56:59,000 --> 00:57:02,000
Conner, I'll tack them on. 
As my running back, three in 

1009
00:57:02,000 --> 00:57:04,400
round eight, and I think that's 
not that different from what you

1010
00:57:04,408 --> 00:57:06,800
did on your best Ball Mania 
team, right? 

1011
00:57:06,800 --> 00:57:08,900
You took romaji probably the 
tenth instead of the eighth, 

1012
00:57:08,900 --> 00:57:10,000
right? 
Yeah. 

1013
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:12,500
But If you want to talk about 
like converting it to auction 

1014
00:57:12,500 --> 00:57:16,600
dollars, if you were to go, you 
know, wide receiver, running 

1015
00:57:16,600 --> 00:57:21,900
back running back and then grab 
a running back around. 8:00, 

1016
00:57:21,900 --> 00:57:25,200
like, you probably even spent 
less than I spent on my exact my

1017
00:57:25,200 --> 00:57:27,200
running back running back to 
start and then running back 

1018
00:57:27,200 --> 00:57:28,800
around 10:00. 
So, yeah. 

1019
00:57:29,400 --> 00:57:32,100
And I think we need to start 
thinking about things like more 

1020
00:57:32,100 --> 00:57:35,300
like that as things start to get
like shifted around. 

1021
00:57:35,300 --> 00:57:38,800
Like it's not going to be as 
easy as running. 

1022
00:57:38,800 --> 00:57:40,900
Back running back then. 
Then skip. 

1023
00:57:40,900 --> 00:57:42,900
Yeah, white, the running backs 
here, like you're gonna have to 

1024
00:57:42,900 --> 00:57:46,500
think about things more. 
Like budgeting in terms of this 

1025
00:57:46,500 --> 00:57:48,500
pick is worth this amount of 
dollars type of thing. 

1026
00:57:49,100 --> 00:57:50,900
I think, exactly. 
I think it requires much more 

1027
00:57:50,900 --> 00:57:53,500
creativity than than we've had 
in the past. 

1028
00:57:53,500 --> 00:57:56,200
And yeah, I can just just to 
finish my point. 

1029
00:57:56,200 --> 00:57:58,900
I think, like the pushback I get
a lot of my strategy of two 

1030
00:57:58,900 --> 00:58:01,100
running backs through eight. 
It's like, oh, you then you 

1031
00:58:01,100 --> 00:58:03,000
can't get any running back 
values later. 

1032
00:58:03,000 --> 00:58:05,700
It's like, well, I don't know if
I hammer wide receivers of for 

1033
00:58:05,700 --> 00:58:08,600
my next five picks and then I'm 
looking at Montgomery and round 

1034
00:58:08,600 --> 00:58:11,300
8. 
I'll do that and then I'll build

1035
00:58:11,300 --> 00:58:14,200
out, you know, Bellator around 
quarterback and later downside 

1036
00:58:14,200 --> 00:58:15,900
answer. 
Add you like I don't think it 

1037
00:58:15,900 --> 00:58:18,000
necessarily precludes me from 
getting those. 

1038
00:58:18,000 --> 00:58:22,600
I understand that like I 
probably on average like can't 

1039
00:58:22,600 --> 00:58:25,600
take advantage of the running 
back values later as much, but I

1040
00:58:25,600 --> 00:58:28,200
think I can still get a running 
back in that range. 

1041
00:58:28,200 --> 00:58:31,000
Even if I go too early, I have 
to be careful about how I do it.

1042
00:58:31,200 --> 00:58:35,700
But it's are you willing to go? 
Let's say, running back running 

1043
00:58:35,700 --> 00:58:42,100
back quarterback. 
I have I have done that and I 

1044
00:58:42,107 --> 00:58:45,800
treat that pretty similarly, 
where then in my next four or 

1045
00:58:45,800 --> 00:58:47,500
five rounds, I'm getting water 
Seaver. 

1046
00:58:47,500 --> 00:58:50,200
Almost every round. 
Let's get crazy happens, right? 

1047
00:58:50,200 --> 00:58:54,800
Like someone Falls way past ATP,
I am willing to do that and I 

1048
00:58:54,808 --> 00:58:57,700
have been this a whole other 
comp top of conversation. 

1049
00:58:58,400 --> 00:59:01,600
But yeah, the third round of 
quarterbacks once although I 

1050
00:59:01,600 --> 00:59:05,200
think it's you're gone or great.
Yeah, I think it's a huge part 

1051
00:59:05,200 --> 00:59:08,300
of this conversation though 
because the Outside of Lamar who

1052
00:59:08,300 --> 00:59:11,900
I take a lot of these days, 
like, in my, in my 150, slow 

1053
00:59:11,900 --> 00:59:14,400
drafts or whatever like Lamar's 
a big part of. 

1054
00:59:15,700 --> 00:59:18,300
I don't know, my exposures yet, 
because we're still ongoing, but

1055
00:59:18,300 --> 00:59:22,400
I've been taking a lot of them 
and it's because I think the 

1056
00:59:22,400 --> 00:59:24,600
running back to your brake has 
happened and there's been a wide

1057
00:59:24,600 --> 00:59:26,400
receiver to your break and 
Andrews is gone. 

1058
00:59:27,100 --> 00:59:30,500
So I'm like, Lamar, this is 
easy, but when you look at the 

1059
00:59:30,500 --> 00:59:33,800
early half of the third round, 
the running back to break is 

1060
00:59:33,800 --> 00:59:37,100
definitely not occurred. 
You could maybe even get a wide 

1061
00:59:37,100 --> 00:59:40,800
receiver. 
You like there and then you know

1062
00:59:40,900 --> 00:59:44,200
but that's like okay if I want 
to go wide receiver running back

1063
00:59:44,200 --> 00:59:47,700
running back to start my draft. 
I've got very little of Mahomes 

1064
00:59:47,700 --> 00:59:51,500
Allen and hurts and I think I am
underweight all three of those 

1065
00:59:51,500 --> 00:59:52,900
right now. 
Yeah I understand. 

1066
00:59:53,300 --> 00:59:55,500
But I don't like it. 
I would like to be. 

1067
00:59:56,500 --> 00:59:59,200
I'd like to because I will say 
from the early part of the draft

1068
00:59:59,200 --> 01:00:04,300
Sam, I'm probably more on your 
side of things where I, I would 

1069
01:00:04,300 --> 01:00:06,900
bet I have a lot of wide 
receiver running back running 

1070
01:00:06,900 --> 01:00:10,000
backs. 
Arts from the early part of the 

1071
01:00:10,000 --> 01:00:13,600
draft Because unless Allah vase 
fall out when a lava used to 

1072
01:00:13,607 --> 01:00:16,400
fall to the two three turn that 
wasn't true but now that he 

1073
01:00:16,400 --> 01:00:21,300
liked tends to get snapped up, I
just start to feel like why 

1074
01:00:21,300 --> 01:00:24,100
wouldn't I just do that? 
And that one answer those the 

1075
01:00:24,100 --> 01:00:26,500
Ali quarterbacks which makes 
this happen conversation. 

1076
01:00:28,100 --> 01:00:32,700
At one point, not to pick on 
Nick in the chat saying so he 

1077
01:00:32,700 --> 01:00:34,900
says saying wide receivers are 
mispriced ultimately doesn't 

1078
01:00:34,900 --> 01:00:37,600
matter even if true because 
there's no counter strategy to 

1079
01:00:37,600 --> 01:00:40,400
exploit it, if you don't take a 
lot receiver through three, to 

1080
01:00:40,400 --> 01:00:43,700
four rounds, you're buried. 
And so, I want to say that what 

1081
01:00:43,700 --> 01:00:46,000
I want to say on that, and I 
said, I hear that a lot is that,

1082
01:00:46,000 --> 01:00:49,400
like, even if wide receivers are
mispriced, there's no way to 

1083
01:00:49,400 --> 01:00:51,900
exploit it. 
Like, let's take this all the 

1084
01:00:51,900 --> 01:00:53,800
way to the extreme. 
Like, imagine we get, you know, 

1085
01:00:53,800 --> 01:00:57,900
room, 2025 wide receivers are 
literally going with the First 

1086
01:00:58,100 --> 01:01:02,800
48 picks in the draft, right? 
Are you saying that like then I 

1087
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:05,600
shouldn't be taking the running 
back one and running back to 

1088
01:01:05,600 --> 01:01:09,000
over, you know, the wide 
receiver 24 and 25. 

1089
01:01:09,000 --> 01:01:11,600
When I'm at the, you know, the 
two, three turn. 

1090
01:01:11,600 --> 01:01:14,700
Like I just don't buy the 
argument that like drafting wide

1091
01:01:14,700 --> 01:01:17,900
receivers and chasing them up. 
As far as possible is like some 

1092
01:01:17,900 --> 01:01:21,200
perrito like Optimal strategy 
that has no counter to it. 

1093
01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:24,900
Like at a certain point the bets
at wide receiver are worse than 

1094
01:01:24,900 --> 01:01:27,500
they are at running back and 
like I get that you have You 

1095
01:01:27,500 --> 01:01:30,300
need more water sewers and 
running backs, but like, I don't

1096
01:01:30,300 --> 01:01:32,400
know. 
I just want to like maybe I'm 

1097
01:01:32,400 --> 01:01:34,400
getting overly angry about this 
point, but like there is a 

1098
01:01:34,400 --> 01:01:38,000
breaking point of this wide 
receiver exterior with. 

1099
01:01:38,000 --> 01:01:40,500
There's a theoretical breaker 
has to be a Breaking Point. 

1100
01:01:40,500 --> 01:01:43,600
Like, you can't just say, like 
you gotta keep chasing them up, 

1101
01:01:43,600 --> 01:01:46,000
chasing not face them up. 
Like, okay, maybe we haven't 

1102
01:01:46,000 --> 01:01:48,300
cracked like, I'm open to the 
argument that like maybe we 

1103
01:01:48,300 --> 01:01:50,800
haven't corrected yet, or this 
is appropriate, correction. 

1104
01:01:50,800 --> 01:01:54,100
But like I fully reject the 
argument that like you just keep

1105
01:01:54,100 --> 01:01:57,300
chasing them up, no matter, no 
matter how they go like that. 

1106
01:01:57,400 --> 01:02:00,200
That's me. 
It does make it tough for those 

1107
01:02:00,200 --> 01:02:05,100
like because like, if you're 
okay if the wide receivers are, 

1108
01:02:06,400 --> 01:02:10,900
you know, as as the market 
chases them up by definition, 

1109
01:02:11,100 --> 01:02:14,400
everything else is getting 
pushed down and so it's like 

1110
01:02:15,200 --> 01:02:18,900
you, it's not just that, you 
know, you went in and you got 

1111
01:02:18,900 --> 01:02:22,600
the running back, one in the 
running back to, but you might 

1112
01:02:22,600 --> 01:02:24,500
be competing against guy, was 
the running back five, in the 

1113
01:02:24,500 --> 01:02:26,300
running back. 
Six, it much much, much better 

1114
01:02:26,300 --> 01:02:29,200
prices than you. 
And he's got the wide receiver 

1115
01:02:29,200 --> 01:02:31,200
Firepower so that's why I think 
it is. 

1116
01:02:31,700 --> 01:02:34,700
Yeah, it does. 
It is more complicated than than

1117
01:02:34,700 --> 01:02:38,100
just like, you know, I've got 
the running back one and I got 

1118
01:02:38,100 --> 01:02:40,300
an amazing price. 
It's like, yeah, but so does the

1119
01:02:40,300 --> 01:02:42,700
Rama guy got to run back? 
5 has an even more amazing price

1120
01:02:42,700 --> 01:02:44,100
and he's going to beat you at 
wide receiver. 

1121
01:02:44,900 --> 01:02:49,900
So it's I think I mean look I'm 
drafting plenty of running backs

1122
01:02:49,900 --> 01:02:51,900
early. 
And last year I was I think 0 

1123
01:02:51,900 --> 01:02:54,300
running back was my heaviest 
strategy was basically tied with

1124
01:02:54,300 --> 01:02:57,100
here running back. 
I don't know. 

1125
01:02:57,100 --> 01:02:59,400
I But I'm not doing a ton of 
your running back starts right 

1126
01:02:59,400 --> 01:03:01,100
now. 
So, I do agree that like the 

1127
01:03:01,100 --> 01:03:03,300
market is different than last 
year. 

1128
01:03:03,300 --> 01:03:06,200
We should probably be attacking 
it differently, but, you know, 

1129
01:03:06,200 --> 01:03:09,400
when you take When you go 
running back, running back 

1130
01:03:09,400 --> 01:03:12,100
running back. 
And your first wide receivers 

1131
01:03:12,100 --> 01:03:13,800
Tara McLaren, which is an actual
thing. 

1132
01:03:13,800 --> 01:03:14,700
That happened to me this 
weekend. 

1133
01:03:14,700 --> 01:03:19,400
It does feel like I've this I 
might have better things to do 

1134
01:03:19,400 --> 01:03:23,500
for the next 30 minutes. 
Yeah, it doesn't feel I'm not 

1135
01:03:23,500 --> 01:03:25,200
saying yeah, definitely doesn't 
feel good. 

1136
01:03:25,200 --> 01:03:27,700
But I don't know, man. 
Like you you you need some 

1137
01:03:27,700 --> 01:03:29,500
things to go right? 
We need you need things to go, 

1138
01:03:29,500 --> 01:03:31,300
right? 
And every draft you do you hit 

1139
01:03:31,300 --> 01:03:33,800
this year's A Jones and round 
13. 

1140
01:03:34,000 --> 01:03:37,000
You hit on McLaren all of a 
sudden, you know, you're in a 

1141
01:03:37,008 --> 01:03:39,400
good spot, right? 
Like get it gets thin like it 

1142
01:03:39,400 --> 01:03:40,400
gets. 
Yeah, yeah, yeah. 

1143
01:03:40,400 --> 01:03:42,100
Yeah. 
Yeah it does is thin. 

1144
01:03:42,500 --> 01:03:45,400
Yeah, not bad. 
I think the reason to do it 

1145
01:03:45,700 --> 01:03:52,500
right is that the upside at 
running back is unmatched like 

1146
01:03:52,500 --> 01:03:54,100
you can't. 
This is like the whole legendary

1147
01:03:54,100 --> 01:04:00,100
running back concept is that 
you're not going to get from 

1148
01:04:01,900 --> 01:04:07,000
like DK Metcalfe is not going to
give you what an ultimate hit 

1149
01:04:07,000 --> 01:04:11,500
from, you know, Josh eggs. 
Reminder Steve Saying Bruce 

1150
01:04:11,500 --> 01:04:15,000
Hall, you know you're just not 
going to get the Tony Pollard 

1151
01:04:15,300 --> 01:04:18,500
just gets fed. 
You're not going to beat him 

1152
01:04:18,900 --> 01:04:23,100
with t Higgins because that's 
that type of season that Tony 

1153
01:04:23,100 --> 01:04:26,600
Pollard with you know, Elite 
efficiency plus Volume, Plus 

1154
01:04:26,600 --> 01:04:28,100
receiving. 
Plus they score a bunch of 

1155
01:04:28,100 --> 01:04:32,400
touchdowns and he's the goal 
line back that type of season is

1156
01:04:32,400 --> 01:04:36,100
not available at, you know, a 
second-round make me. 

1157
01:04:36,100 --> 01:04:38,900
You could say me it's available 
from Justin Jefferson 

1158
01:04:38,900 --> 01:04:42,800
specifically but like or Cooper.
Copper Jamar Chase but it's not 

1159
01:04:42,800 --> 01:04:45,400
available from the wide receiver
in that range and if you were to

1160
01:04:45,400 --> 01:04:48,300
happen to hit on two of those 
seasons and a function in a 

1161
01:04:48,300 --> 01:04:51,900
healthy solid season, from the 
third running back, like you're 

1162
01:04:51,900 --> 01:04:53,600
not going to match everyone at 
wide receiver. 

1163
01:04:53,600 --> 01:04:55,800
You aren't but like that point 
like they're not going to match 

1164
01:04:55,800 --> 01:04:58,900
you at running back. 
So there is this to me. 

1165
01:04:58,900 --> 01:05:01,300
I mean I still think you really 
want to be focused on the upside

1166
01:05:01,300 --> 01:05:03,600
here probably more than ever, 
right? 

1167
01:05:03,600 --> 01:05:06,600
And this is easy for me to say 
is the guy who writes about 

1168
01:05:06,600 --> 01:05:07,600
running back upside there the 
rounds. 

1169
01:05:07,600 --> 01:05:11,300
But your I think maybe it's more
important than ever because What

1170
01:05:11,300 --> 01:05:14,300
can I get later in the draft? 
At running back, I can get 

1171
01:05:14,300 --> 01:05:17,600
projected, volume more than I've
ever been able to get in years 

1172
01:05:17,600 --> 01:05:20,300
past James, Conner, Rashad 
white. 

1173
01:05:20,400 --> 01:05:22,600
I mean, these dudes are like 
three down backs. 

1174
01:05:23,000 --> 01:05:26,300
Like there's no, and there's no 
one on the fucking depth chart 

1175
01:05:26,300 --> 01:05:28,400
who can challenge them right 
now, that might change, but 

1176
01:05:28,400 --> 01:05:31,700
there's like, literally, no one 
like they're going to get all 

1177
01:05:31,700 --> 01:05:34,300
the volume. 
That's not a profile that you 

1178
01:05:34,300 --> 01:05:37,400
want to chase into the the sixth
round or whatever, but you don't

1179
01:05:37,400 --> 01:05:40,500
have to seventh eighth ninth 
round for these guys. 

1180
01:05:40,700 --> 01:05:45,500
Like that is if you're taking 
Ramon Dre because you don't 

1181
01:05:45,500 --> 01:05:48,000
really believe in the talent but
you think you know, he's just 

1182
01:05:48,000 --> 01:05:49,400
going to get better. 
You're taking out your Heroes 

1183
01:05:49,400 --> 01:05:51,600
because yeah, he hasn't been 
good, but he's going to get, 

1184
01:05:51,600 --> 01:05:54,000
he's going to get the work. 
Like I can get going to get the 

1185
01:05:54,000 --> 01:05:59,500
work later, but I can't get is 
going to wreak fantasy football 

1186
01:05:59,500 --> 01:06:03,200
in 2023 later. 
So, that's if I'm gonna dive 

1187
01:06:03,200 --> 01:06:05,700
into the running back value 
right now, I still want to be 

1188
01:06:06,300 --> 01:06:08,400
very focused on the on the 
upside part of it. 

1189
01:06:09,100 --> 01:06:12,300
Yep. 
And I got one one last bit of 

1190
01:06:12,300 --> 01:06:15,500
running back propaganda to Pat's
Pat's point about running back 

1191
01:06:15,500 --> 01:06:18,200
upside. 
So this is Derrick Henry, the 

1192
01:06:18,200 --> 01:06:21,000
guy who the stats nerves every 
year say you know, he's not 

1193
01:06:21,000 --> 01:06:22,700
going to do it. 
He only relies on carries. 

1194
01:06:23,000 --> 01:06:25,400
These are as half. 
PPR point for game finishes, the

1195
01:06:25,400 --> 01:06:31,400
past four years. 17.9 23 in that
eight or nine game stretch in 

1196
01:06:31,400 --> 01:06:36,000
2021 20.2 and 19. 
So you take the average of those

1197
01:06:36,000 --> 01:06:40,400
Four Seasons, that's 20 half. 
PPR Game over the last four 

1198
01:06:40,400 --> 01:06:44,600
years, there have only been two 
individual wide receiver seasons

1199
01:06:44,600 --> 01:06:46,900
in the last four years. 
That have been higher than that,

1200
01:06:46,900 --> 01:06:52,100
it was Devonte in 2020 and cup 
2021, besides that no wide 

1201
01:06:52,100 --> 01:06:54,100
receiver in an individual 
season, not the average of their

1202
01:06:54,100 --> 01:06:57,700
seasons in an individual season 
is beating Derek Henry's, 

1203
01:06:57,800 --> 01:07:00,400
four-year average in points per 
game. 

1204
01:07:00,400 --> 01:07:03,800
So that's just a point of like, 
at some point if that if that 

1205
01:07:03,800 --> 01:07:06,400
running back profile, and I'm 
not talking about Derrick Henry 

1206
01:07:06,400 --> 01:07:09,600
this year, and is a gym just 
talking about Like the upside 

1207
01:07:09,600 --> 01:07:11,700
that you can hit it running back
if you hit that upside at 

1208
01:07:11,707 --> 01:07:14,700
running back, like, good luck 
matching it with like the wide 

1209
01:07:14,700 --> 01:07:19,400
receiver 15, that's all SEC. 
Yeah, that is the thing you 

1210
01:07:19,400 --> 01:07:22,300
can't match. 
Yeah. 

1211
01:07:23,100 --> 01:07:24,900
Now do Derrick Henry vs. 
Texans. 

1212
01:07:25,000 --> 01:07:29,200
Love that comment. 
It's probably 35 PPR points or 

1213
01:07:29,200 --> 01:07:35,300
something some ridiculous. 
Yeah if I honestly probably all 

1214
01:07:35,300 --> 01:07:37,500
right first time anyone was 
Derrick Henry vs. 

1215
01:07:37,700 --> 01:07:42,000
Versus Texans stacked stacked 
double-stacked Watson with Henry

1216
01:07:42,000 --> 01:07:44,700
coming back. 
Yeah, puts up once against the 

1217
01:07:44,700 --> 01:07:47,000
Texans. 
Laughs. 

1218
01:07:47,000 --> 01:07:49,100
And you get some twice and week 
15 and 17. 

1219
01:07:49,100 --> 01:07:53,700
He had no, it doesn't hurt. 
Yeah, Dave is actually David. 

1220
01:07:54,400 --> 01:07:55,800
Hey, Jack to say that on the 
show. 

1221
01:07:55,900 --> 01:07:57,300
You had to get it in want to 
show. 

1222
01:07:59,200 --> 01:08:00,900
Okay. 
This show is called ATP. 

1223
01:08:00,900 --> 01:08:03,900
Chasing weird. 
An hour and seven minutes and we

1224
01:08:03,900 --> 01:08:07,800
have not Chase neets ATP away. 
The ATP not got that. 

1225
01:08:09,500 --> 01:08:12,600
I will say, keep watching the 
show, don't turn it off. 

1226
01:08:12,700 --> 01:08:14,900
Not the most exciting, 80 
people, movements this week, 

1227
01:08:14,900 --> 01:08:17,300
we're talking Paris. 
Gamble again for some reason. 

1228
01:08:17,300 --> 01:08:20,200
We're talking Brandon. 
Are you continuing to move up 

1229
01:08:20,200 --> 01:08:21,899
for? 
I don't know what reason. 

1230
01:08:22,200 --> 01:08:26,000
But let's start with Harris 
Campbell he is the biggest Riser

1231
01:08:26,100 --> 01:08:31,300
by ride EP, but by quite a bit, 
he's up 20 spots to pick 182 

1232
01:08:31,800 --> 01:08:34,399
Jack. 
I'm curious how the ET our team 

1233
01:08:34,399 --> 01:08:38,100
and you you are treating this 
Giants wide receiver situation. 

1234
01:08:39,200 --> 01:08:40,500
What do you think of Paris 
Campbell? 

1235
01:08:40,500 --> 01:08:42,700
What do you think of the Giants 
wide receivers? 

1236
01:08:43,100 --> 01:08:46,700
Yeah, with the Giants receivers 
we We were kind of just like 

1237
01:08:46,700 --> 01:08:50,100
throwing our hands up in the air
and saying like, you know, we 

1238
01:08:50,100 --> 01:08:51,899
don't really know who the guys 
are going to be. 

1239
01:08:52,100 --> 01:08:57,700
We did move previously, we had 
parer, we had one Dale as the 

1240
01:08:58,100 --> 01:09:01,200
slot receiver. 
Assuming it's, it's him versa. 

1241
01:09:02,800 --> 01:09:05,100
Mondale repairs for the, for the
slot competition. 

1242
01:09:05,300 --> 01:09:08,000
We previously had one Dale 
ahead, but with, you know, his 

1243
01:09:08,000 --> 01:09:10,399
injury question marks. 
And with the recent Paris 

1244
01:09:10,399 --> 01:09:14,100
Campbell steam, which obviously 
has come without Lawndale being 

1245
01:09:14,100 --> 01:09:17,000
healthy. 
We kind of moved everyone closer

1246
01:09:17,000 --> 01:09:20,200
together. 
I do think, at this point, it's 

1247
01:09:20,300 --> 01:09:25,600
gonna be Wanda or Paris Slayton,
and Hodgins as the three to open

1248
01:09:25,600 --> 01:09:30,500
the season, but like, with high 
at their and with Rondell, 

1249
01:09:30,800 --> 01:09:33,399
presumably work, Working his way
back to full health. 

1250
01:09:33,399 --> 01:09:37,800
Like I truly have no idea who is
going to be the guy at the end 

1251
01:09:37,800 --> 01:09:39,800
of the year and in the 
projections right now, I think 

1252
01:09:39,800 --> 01:09:44,200
we have like four or five guys 
between eight percent projected 

1253
01:09:44,300 --> 01:09:47,899
and 11%. 
And then we've just kind of bump

1254
01:09:47,899 --> 01:09:49,600
guys like they'll and high it up
in there. 

1255
01:09:49,600 --> 01:09:53,500
Upside case just because as a 
rookie he's that he has that 

1256
01:09:53,500 --> 01:09:55,400
profile where he could smash at 
the end of the year. 

1257
01:09:57,100 --> 01:10:00,000
How are you handling Shepherd? 
And Crowder you guys expect 

1258
01:10:00,000 --> 01:10:03,600
those guys to make the team. 
We Have them quite a bit louder 

1259
01:10:03,600 --> 01:10:06,400
reproject like everyone that's 
on the roster. 

1260
01:10:07,300 --> 01:10:09,800
I could let me pull up the exact
order. 

1261
01:10:09,800 --> 01:10:13,600
We have, we have these guys in 
right now, we have famous 

1262
01:10:13,600 --> 01:10:16,700
encounter, very low, we have 
Shepherd, kind of trailing the 

1263
01:10:16,700 --> 01:10:24,500
first for of Slayton Hodgins. 
Juan, Dale, and Paris, Campbell.

1264
01:10:24,600 --> 01:10:27,700
And then we have Jamison 
Crowder's as almost a non-factor

1265
01:10:27,700 --> 01:10:32,000
really Yes, Shepherds. 
The one, we're like I want to 

1266
01:10:32,000 --> 01:10:35,000
treat Shepherd, like he doesn't 
exist, but man, if he's healthy,

1267
01:10:35,000 --> 01:10:38,400
like even coming off a torn 
Achilles, right? 

1268
01:10:38,500 --> 01:10:41,200
And this one is the Kelly's. 
Yeah, so what? 

1269
01:10:41,200 --> 01:10:43,700
But he tore his Achilles came 
back last year and they actually

1270
01:10:43,700 --> 01:10:45,600
played him a lot and he looked 
good, right? 

1271
01:10:45,600 --> 01:10:47,500
And then he toilets are. 
Well yeah. 

1272
01:10:47,500 --> 01:10:52,400
So my point being is like, when 
he's healthy the team, plays 

1273
01:10:52,400 --> 01:10:54,200
him, even with this news 
coaching staff, they played him.

1274
01:10:54,200 --> 01:10:58,200
So, he's the guy where I'm like,
man, does Hodgins like, get cut 

1275
01:10:58,200 --> 01:11:01,600
because Shepherd makes the team 
or Something like I don't need 

1276
01:11:01,600 --> 01:11:03,500
to go through the Hodgins thing 
again because I actually like 

1277
01:11:03,500 --> 01:11:04,700
audience. 
I've been taking Hodgins, but I 

1278
01:11:04,708 --> 01:11:07,800
just have that in the back of my
mind, like to me the the ante 

1279
01:11:07,800 --> 01:11:12,700
Hodgins case, at this point 
comes down to Darren Waller. 

1280
01:11:13,200 --> 01:11:14,500
And Gretsch has been talking 
about this. 

1281
01:11:14,500 --> 01:11:17,900
A lot is that Darren Waller is 
probably going to get split out 

1282
01:11:17,900 --> 01:11:23,200
wide some and I've seen some of 
that in in some of the, you know

1283
01:11:23,200 --> 01:11:26,400
athletic reports and talking 
about him moving around, it's 

1284
01:11:26,400 --> 01:11:29,600
played about 20% of a snaps out 
wide historically. 

1285
01:11:30,700 --> 01:11:34,100
And you would imagine it kind of
plays like the X wide receiver 

1286
01:11:34,100 --> 01:11:37,700
spot, which is Hodgins primary 
role so that that worries me a 

1287
01:11:37,700 --> 01:11:42,700
bit, maybe I'm overconfident, 
but I do not think Hodgins is 

1288
01:11:42,700 --> 01:11:44,800
getting cut. 
I think Hodgins is making the 

1289
01:11:44,800 --> 01:11:47,600
team. 
So I'm not worried like and and 

1290
01:11:47,600 --> 01:11:50,800
if you look at the contract on 
Shepherd, they can easily move 

1291
01:11:50,800 --> 01:11:52,300
on. 
They can easily given to him. 

1292
01:11:52,700 --> 01:11:55,500
Yeah, of Hajj, like Hodgins held
down that spot for them and gave

1293
01:11:55,500 --> 01:11:57,200
them some stability at the end 
of the year. 

1294
01:11:57,700 --> 01:11:59,600
Yeah, I would be kind of 
shocked. 

1295
01:11:59,800 --> 01:12:03,800
If they cut Hodgins and to keep 
Shepherd, I think they could 

1296
01:12:03,800 --> 01:12:08,200
pretty easily, you know, keep 
Shepherd on speed dial and just 

1297
01:12:08,200 --> 01:12:09,900
go with Hodgins into the 
beginning, the year. 

1298
01:12:09,900 --> 01:12:14,100
Because who's signing Shepherd? 
Yeah, that's fair. 

1299
01:12:15,600 --> 01:12:17,700
I just make the point of that 
like, he's been on the team for 

1300
01:12:17,700 --> 01:12:20,300
a while and last year they 
played in when he was healthy. 

1301
01:12:20,300 --> 01:12:23,400
But I agree with you it's 
probably like one of these 

1302
01:12:23,400 --> 01:12:26,100
things where I'm baking and 
like, a 10% probability in my 

1303
01:12:26,100 --> 01:12:29,500
head or something and like I'm 
overthinking it but too hot, I 

1304
01:12:29,508 --> 01:12:30,700
think. 
Hasn't she wanted. 

1305
01:12:30,700 --> 01:12:31,800
I'm going to jump to the 
fallers. 

1306
01:12:31,800 --> 01:12:36,400
Here you mentioned high at Jack,
he's down, 12 spots, the biggest

1307
01:12:36,400 --> 01:12:41,400
Faller and yeah, you mentioned 
the up, upside case, or him like

1308
01:12:41,900 --> 01:12:45,700
sometimes I wonder if guys like 
Hyatt we kind of punish them for

1309
01:12:45,700 --> 01:12:48,500
going below expectations in the 
draft. 

1310
01:12:48,600 --> 01:12:51,000
When in reality, those like 
expectations kind of British 

1311
01:12:51,000 --> 01:12:54,400
like in fantasy Twitter's head 
and like it didn't really exist.

1312
01:12:54,400 --> 01:12:58,400
Like he stole third round pick. 
He had a good production profile

1313
01:12:58,400 --> 01:13:01,200
given it was kind of gimmicky. 
And in Tennessee, the dude went 

1314
01:13:01,200 --> 01:13:04,300
for 6, 2007, and five touchdowns
worse, Alabama. 

1315
01:13:04,400 --> 01:13:07,200
Like, I almost wonder if he was 
like the sleeper prospect that 

1316
01:13:07,200 --> 01:13:09,600
didn't have first round buzz and
he ended up going in the third 

1317
01:13:09,600 --> 01:13:11,700
round. 
We kind of be like excited about

1318
01:13:11,700 --> 01:13:15,000
him and like a Marvin Mims type 
way but the fact that like he 

1319
01:13:15,000 --> 01:13:17,300
was supposed to go on the first 
down and then went to the third 

1320
01:13:17,300 --> 01:13:19,900
were like punishing him for it. 
I mean it's still wide open 

1321
01:13:19,900 --> 01:13:22,800
depth chart in New York and he 
has like Elite athleticism, 

1322
01:13:23,400 --> 01:13:25,800
pretty good production. 
So yeah curious what you guys 

1323
01:13:25,800 --> 01:13:29,200
see for the offside case with 
Hyatt starting with you Jack. 

1324
01:13:30,300 --> 01:13:33,400
Yeah I mean I think the upside 
case is that he's like the wide 

1325
01:13:33,400 --> 01:13:37,400
receiver one at the end of the 
season and probably secondary 

1326
01:13:37,400 --> 01:13:39,800
option. 
Besides while I mean the reason 

1327
01:13:39,800 --> 01:13:42,400
for, I think the reason he's 
falling is because of those 

1328
01:13:42,400 --> 01:13:45,000
reports that he's playing with 
the third team offense. 

1329
01:13:45,000 --> 01:13:48,800
But I don't think that, you 
know, given that he's a 

1330
01:13:48,808 --> 01:13:51,900
third-round rookie in June with 
a bunch of guys who've been in 

1331
01:13:51,907 --> 01:13:54,600
the league for a while. 
I don't think that that's super 

1332
01:13:54,600 --> 01:13:59,900
surprising. 
We had high it I think as 

1333
01:14:00,100 --> 01:14:04,000
Overvalued when he was going via
earlier a few weeks ago, but now

1334
01:14:04,000 --> 01:14:08,900
we and we haven't. 
We docked him a little bit just 

1335
01:14:08,900 --> 01:14:12,000
kind of keeping Pace with the 
market, but we are now above ADP

1336
01:14:12,600 --> 01:14:16,200
on sale and Hyatt because I 
don't think that like the recent

1337
01:14:16,200 --> 01:14:20,100
reports are that, loadable 
really Pat. 

1338
01:14:20,100 --> 01:14:22,100
What about you? 
I know you were also kind of a 

1339
01:14:22,100 --> 01:14:24,500
similar position. 
Are you now in Moraine on Hyatt?

1340
01:14:24,500 --> 01:14:28,300
Now, that is falling. 
I mean, I think the fact that he

1341
01:14:28,300 --> 01:14:30,500
was talked about as a potential 
first-round pick and then went 

1342
01:14:30,500 --> 01:14:35,900
into the third round is a like 
I'm major like, you know, you 

1343
01:14:35,900 --> 01:14:41,300
shift your evaluation of a guy 
when he when he is like oh this 

1344
01:14:41,300 --> 01:14:44,200
guy could be a first-round pick,
like gives a flowers was a 

1345
01:14:44,200 --> 01:14:47,800
third-round pick. 
I would feel quite a bit 

1346
01:14:47,800 --> 01:14:51,300
different about him. 
So I've been sort of surprised 

1347
01:14:51,300 --> 01:14:54,000
that this hasn't happened sooner
that we haven't seen. 

1348
01:14:54,000 --> 01:14:59,300
Hi tumble to me. 
This feels like a Correction and

1349
01:14:59,300 --> 01:15:04,400
I'm willing like okay, if 
Hodgins was a 13th round picks 

1350
01:15:04,400 --> 01:15:09,400
Layton was a 14th round pick. 
And you could get high at 177, I

1351
01:15:09,400 --> 01:15:12,400
would be taking High it a lot 
but I still get it. 

1352
01:15:12,400 --> 01:15:14,600
Like he's still like there with 
you. 

1353
01:15:14,700 --> 01:15:17,000
There's like a part of the draft
that's now basically reserved 

1354
01:15:17,000 --> 01:15:20,100
for Giants wide receivers and 
they're all go together. 

1355
01:15:20,200 --> 01:15:24,200
And so I don't, I don't think 
he's my favorite still, he's a 

1356
01:15:24,208 --> 01:15:27,000
third-round rookie. 
He was very Draw. 

1357
01:15:27,200 --> 01:15:29,600
I mean this guy was you know, 
kind of a deep threat out of 

1358
01:15:29,600 --> 01:15:32,500
this lot out of this gimmicky 
offense. 

1359
01:15:34,000 --> 01:15:36,400
He's a one-year wonder he's in 
early declare but he's a 

1360
01:15:36,407 --> 01:15:42,100
one-year Wonder. 
I mean I could see him doing 

1361
01:15:42,100 --> 01:15:46,100
very little this year. 
I could also see him emerging as

1362
01:15:46,100 --> 01:15:49,300
the clear deep threat and 
displacing Darius Slayton and 

1363
01:15:49,300 --> 01:15:52,700
looking like, you know, a Smash 
in the late rounds but is not 

1364
01:15:52,700 --> 01:15:55,600
someone that I'm trying to be 
super overweight on right now. 

1365
01:15:55,600 --> 01:15:59,000
Like if I want You know, really 
cheap, third, round wide 

1366
01:15:59,000 --> 01:16:00,800
receiver. 
I can get Josh Downs now in the 

1367
01:16:00,800 --> 01:16:02,900
last round. 
Almost seventeenth eighteenth 

1368
01:16:02,900 --> 01:16:05,400
round Josh Downs. 
So I'm kind of going more there 

1369
01:16:06,100 --> 01:16:08,000
for my free. 
Third round wide receiver. 

1370
01:16:08,000 --> 01:16:11,500
You can get Cedric Tillman 
completely for free in the third

1371
01:16:11,500 --> 01:16:16,500
round. 
I mean can he this place done 

1372
01:16:16,500 --> 01:16:19,800
people's Jones at the end of the
season on the outside, like I 

1373
01:16:19,800 --> 01:16:23,000
would say those are like pretty 
similar likelihoods. 

1374
01:16:24,100 --> 01:16:26,700
Hi, it's got a better chance of 
displacing Slayton. 

1375
01:16:26,700 --> 01:16:29,900
Then Tillman does it displacing 
down people's Jones? 

1376
01:16:29,900 --> 01:16:33,200
I guess. 
But like, I don't know, you're 

1377
01:16:33,200 --> 01:16:35,200
just like betting that one of 
these third rounders gets on the

1378
01:16:35,300 --> 01:16:38,000
on the field and score some 
touchdowns in the right week. 

1379
01:16:38,000 --> 01:16:41,500
I think and I have to pay a 
premium still on high relative, 

1380
01:16:41,500 --> 01:16:46,200
the other third rounders with 
Hyatt and how you mentioned that

1381
01:16:46,200 --> 01:16:48,600
there's a range where all the 
Giants wide receivers go. 

1382
01:16:48,600 --> 01:16:50,900
I definitely agree with you. 
They like I think there's a 

1383
01:16:50,900 --> 01:16:54,200
chance he does nothing this 
year, but like you mentioned 

1384
01:16:54,200 --> 01:16:56,400
there's a chance that by the end
of the year, he's the clear wide

1385
01:16:56,400 --> 01:17:01,000
receiver, one and early, clear 
maybe deep threat is a better 

1386
01:17:01,000 --> 01:17:04,800
way to put it. 
But when isn't that? 

1387
01:17:04,800 --> 01:17:10,600
Like he's probably has a lower 
chance of being, any of being 

1388
01:17:10,600 --> 01:17:15,600
like anything, then Isaiah 
Hodgins, but wouldn't like that 

1389
01:17:15,600 --> 01:17:19,700
profile of having that upside be
significantly better than 

1390
01:17:19,700 --> 01:17:23,100
someone like Isaiah Hodgins. 
We're talking about guys late in

1391
01:17:23,100 --> 01:17:26,100
the draft because like, what do 
you think hajin ceiling is? 

1392
01:17:26,100 --> 01:17:30,100
I guess because I think he has a
pretty good chance to be on the 

1393
01:17:30,100 --> 01:17:32,100
field. 
A good amount and be like, Find 

1394
01:17:32,100 --> 01:17:35,700
player, but I think Jalen Hyatt 
has more upside for sure. 

1395
01:17:35,700 --> 01:17:39,000
But maybe that's me just falling
in love with the unknown of like

1396
01:17:39,000 --> 01:17:43,100
a rookies range of outcomes. 
I mean, I think Hyatt probably 

1397
01:17:43,100 --> 01:17:49,600
has better odds of being like 
you know, a really impact player

1398
01:17:49,900 --> 01:17:53,100
down the stretch but the issue 
with with high it is that he 

1399
01:17:53,108 --> 01:17:55,900
doesn't really profiles like an 
Diamond robberies, just going to

1400
01:17:55,907 --> 01:17:57,100
learn a ton of targets, you 
know? 

1401
01:17:57,100 --> 01:18:00,000
Once he gets out there like he's
more he's Daniel Jones deep 

1402
01:18:00,000 --> 01:18:02,700
threat which isn't like a 
particularly exciting archetype 

1403
01:18:02,700 --> 01:18:06,600
and then compared to Hodgins 
like I think Hodgins could his 

1404
01:18:06,600 --> 01:18:08,900
upside to me is that he's the 
Giants wide receiver, one all 

1405
01:18:08,900 --> 01:18:11,500
season. 
And with Darren wall or on the 

1406
01:18:11,500 --> 01:18:14,000
field that's like less appealing
than it even would have been 

1407
01:18:14,000 --> 01:18:17,600
last year, but that's 
essentially, it's like, he's a, 

1408
01:18:18,500 --> 01:18:21,900
you know, he's like equivalent 
to a guy you can get in like a 

1409
01:18:21,907 --> 01:18:24,500
seventh round and you're getting
in the late, the very late 

1410
01:18:24,500 --> 01:18:29,800
rounds which isn't like the the 
massive massive hit, you know. 

1411
01:18:29,800 --> 01:18:34,100
He's but I think these prices I 
think Hodgins can be essentially

1412
01:18:34,100 --> 01:18:36,200
a best ball League winner. 
Yeah. 

1413
01:18:37,300 --> 01:18:42,100
So my approach to may be 
summarized like I don't know I'm

1414
01:18:42,100 --> 01:18:44,100
taking all these guys. 
I'm taking like yeah I'm taking 

1415
01:18:44,100 --> 01:18:47,500
all these guys, not not Campbell
so much for me right now. 

1416
01:18:47,600 --> 01:18:50,800
Okay, I have I have mixed 
gambling, a little bit, but if I

1417
01:18:50,808 --> 01:18:55,600
was to rank or like my exposure,
I'm going to be most Overexposed

1418
01:18:55,600 --> 01:18:58,300
to Slayton then Hodgins and 
high. 

1419
01:18:58,300 --> 01:18:59,900
It will probably be tied next 
for me. 

1420
01:18:59,900 --> 01:19:03,000
And then I'll probably have a 
little bit of Paris and I'm 

1421
01:19:03,000 --> 01:19:04,300
pretending one. 
Dale doesn't exist, that's 

1422
01:19:04,300 --> 01:19:07,100
another conversation. 
Well, I was too, but But hey, 

1423
01:19:07,100 --> 01:19:10,200
he's going cheap now. 
I'm starting to mix modeling 

1424
01:19:10,200 --> 01:19:12,200
again. 
Okay, I'm fine the end of season

1425
01:19:12,200 --> 01:19:14,500
upside. 
I mean he he can displace Paris 

1426
01:19:14,500 --> 01:19:17,700
Campbell in the slot and you 
know second-round pick of theirs

1427
01:19:17,700 --> 01:19:22,400
last year if he's healthy Yeah, 
it's just the archetype of like,

1428
01:19:22,400 --> 01:19:25,300
it's our top of a guy and an 
offense, where I don't see a ton

1429
01:19:25,300 --> 01:19:28,900
of upside for the slot guy, 
which may be should be why I 

1430
01:19:28,900 --> 01:19:30,200
shouldn't be taking any Campbell
either. 

1431
01:19:30,200 --> 01:19:32,900
But anyways, my overall point. 
Like, I'm okay, if you want to 

1432
01:19:32,900 --> 01:19:35,100
make cases for any of these 
guys, like, I've just heard 

1433
01:19:35,100 --> 01:19:38,300
people saying like just, you 
know, it's like the same thing 

1434
01:19:38,300 --> 01:19:40,000
of like the Patriots running 
back thing, back in the day. 

1435
01:19:40,000 --> 01:19:42,200
People just like, don't waste 
your time with the Giants wide 

1436
01:19:42,200 --> 01:19:43,600
receivers, just don't take any 
of them. 

1437
01:19:43,600 --> 01:19:46,600
It's like, if you're giving me 
some of these guys are going to 

1438
01:19:46,600 --> 01:19:48,600
be the starting wide receivers 
and the Giants, but then of the 

1439
01:19:48,608 --> 01:19:50,600
year and there. 
Totally free. 

1440
01:19:50,700 --> 01:19:54,000
Like I'm like I'm taking them 
and I think there's a chance 

1441
01:19:54,000 --> 01:19:58,800
that, you know, in a Dave 
offense, Daniel Jones has a leap

1442
01:19:58,800 --> 01:20:01,900
in year 2 and they passed more. 
We saw that in the playoffs a 

1443
01:20:01,900 --> 01:20:05,400
little bit against the Vikings, 
they had a higher password, ever

1444
01:20:05,400 --> 01:20:07,200
expected. 
I think there's upside in this 

1445
01:20:07,208 --> 01:20:10,500
passing offense and, you know, 
it could be that these guys are 

1446
01:20:10,500 --> 01:20:13,600
a waste of time. 
But at their prices, I think 

1447
01:20:13,600 --> 01:20:17,200
taking stabs and all of them is,
is a pretty good approach where 

1448
01:20:17,200 --> 01:20:18,400
you guys out on these 
quarterbacks. 

1449
01:20:18,400 --> 01:20:20,600
Because to me that's the big 
Thing is that? 

1450
01:20:20,600 --> 01:20:23,300
So I'm my second, highest draft 
a quarterback right now is 

1451
01:20:23,300 --> 01:20:26,000
Matthew Stafford and my fifth, 
highest draft a quarterback is 

1452
01:20:26,000 --> 01:20:29,300
Daniel Jones. 
So I'm taking a lot of these 

1453
01:20:29,300 --> 01:20:32,800
wide receivers but it's because 
I think Stafford and Jones are 

1454
01:20:32,800 --> 01:20:36,900
both really undervalued. 
So, you know, I'm only 11 

1455
01:20:36,900 --> 01:20:39,300
percent on Dan Jones. 
I'm pretty spread out at 

1456
01:20:39,500 --> 01:20:42,000
quarterback. 
I have 12.6% Stafford, so it's 

1457
01:20:42,000 --> 01:20:45,600
not like I'm like absolutely 
hammering either guy but it does

1458
01:20:45,600 --> 01:20:49,400
put me in a position where I'm 
like I know there's points on 

1459
01:20:49,400 --> 01:20:51,300
these. 
I know there's points on the 

1460
01:20:51,308 --> 01:20:54,200
Giants because I just dropped it
down to Jones or I know there's 

1461
01:20:54,200 --> 01:20:56,900
points in this week, 17 game 
because I drafted Matthew 

1462
01:20:56,900 --> 01:20:58,400
Stafford. 
I'm betting on that game to go 

1463
01:20:58,400 --> 01:21:00,300
off. 
I want I want the guys are going

1464
01:21:00,300 --> 01:21:04,500
to score those points. 
So I think for me some of my 

1465
01:21:04,500 --> 01:21:07,600
optimism or my willingness to 
kind of go into the uncertainty 

1466
01:21:07,600 --> 01:21:10,000
here, stems from the fact that I
like this game. 

1467
01:21:10,000 --> 01:21:12,800
I like these two quarterbacks 
that their cost. 

1468
01:21:13,500 --> 01:21:16,500
I would be different if it was 
like just kind of out on. 

1469
01:21:16,700 --> 01:21:19,400
Yeah, you know. 
On Jones at this price or 

1470
01:21:19,407 --> 01:21:22,200
whatever Jack you targeting 
either of these offenses are 

1471
01:21:22,200 --> 01:21:25,200
both of them. 
I like the Giants, a lot more 

1472
01:21:25,200 --> 01:21:29,600
than the Rams, the Rams. 
I think it's just scare me with.

1473
01:21:29,600 --> 01:21:33,800
Like I think they could just 
like blow up in a bad way I 

1474
01:21:33,800 --> 01:21:38,400
guess this, because the rosters,
so devoid of talent, beyond 

1475
01:21:38,800 --> 01:21:42,900
their above-ground Stafford cup 
and Donald. 

1476
01:21:43,600 --> 01:21:47,500
So I don't really, I don't have 
much of the Giants Rams game 

1477
01:21:47,500 --> 01:21:50,800
just because Cuz I feel like 
there's a lot of risk there but 

1478
01:21:50,800 --> 01:21:55,600
I don't mind like the Giants 
offense as a bad individually. 

1479
01:21:56,500 --> 01:21:59,000
Got it I have to just look at 
this. 

1480
01:21:59,000 --> 01:22:03,400
Now I don't think I was many 
teams as you Pat but 40 teams, 

1481
01:22:04,300 --> 01:22:06,100
post draft. 
Now I must have more. 

1482
01:22:06,100 --> 01:22:10,700
Oh, I guess this is how saluting
super Just 40 teams post that 

1483
01:22:10,700 --> 01:22:13,000
can't be right? 
No, that can't be right. 

1484
01:22:13,100 --> 01:22:15,700
I feel like sometimes exposure 
thing doesn't show all of your 

1485
01:22:15,700 --> 01:22:21,200
teams have 100. 
Anyways, I have like fucking 300

1486
01:22:21,200 --> 01:22:25,800
pre-draft something disgusting. 
Anyways, in my sample teams, 

1487
01:22:25,800 --> 01:22:29,700
whatever sample. 
This is 26%, Daniel Jones, 20% 

1488
01:22:29,700 --> 01:22:32,000
Matthew Stafford. 
So, okay, so you're in. 

1489
01:22:32,600 --> 01:22:37,500
I'm pretty in, on the Giants, I 
and I have a good clip of Waller

1490
01:22:37,500 --> 01:22:38,600
to. 
So I'm not always playing it 

1491
01:22:38,600 --> 01:22:39,400
through. 
Receivers. 

1492
01:22:39,400 --> 01:22:41,800
But I like Waller Alexa. 
Yeah. 

1493
01:22:41,900 --> 01:22:46,000
Like Daniel Jones at this cost 
would have smashed last or maybe

1494
01:22:46,000 --> 01:22:48,500
not smash. 
But then a good pick last year 

1495
01:22:49,000 --> 01:22:52,700
and they added a good bit of 
receiving Talent another year in

1496
01:22:52,700 --> 01:22:56,000
the system. 
I just, I think he has some 

1497
01:22:56,000 --> 01:22:58,800
untapped upside, so they're 
behind and they want to do a big

1498
01:22:58,800 --> 01:23:01,000
contract. 
Like yeah, they're behind. 

1499
01:23:01,500 --> 01:23:05,600
We have dimes 14 picks over ATP 
attr. 

1500
01:23:05,600 --> 01:23:08,800
So I'm definitely in on him and 
I think kind of as it relates 

1501
01:23:08,900 --> 01:23:13,200
It's to the Patriots running 
back metaphor, maybe. 

1502
01:23:13,600 --> 01:23:17,200
And, and with Juan Del falling, 
Like Pat mentioned, maybe the 

1503
01:23:17,200 --> 01:23:20,800
answer is just if. 
And like I said, we have these 

1504
01:23:20,800 --> 01:23:22,700
guys. 
All projected, like, very 

1505
01:23:22,700 --> 01:23:25,300
similar Target shares, people 
just to be upside cases a little

1506
01:23:25,300 --> 01:23:29,600
bit, just a account, maybe for 
Hyatt being the rookie having a 

1507
01:23:29,600 --> 01:23:31,900
wider range of outcomes but 
maybe the answer is just like 

1508
01:23:31,900 --> 01:23:35,600
take the cheapest guy and and I 
think it's a Sam's Point, like 

1509
01:23:35,600 --> 01:23:37,900
Slayton is my favorite Giants, 
Receiver right now. 

1510
01:23:40,100 --> 01:23:42,900
And he's, you know, going the 
latest of them. 

1511
01:23:42,900 --> 01:23:47,300
So I think, yeah, I'm thinking 
about it Hodgins is my favorite 

1512
01:23:47,300 --> 01:23:51,000
but I love sleeping too and I'm 
taking I am taking High, 

1513
01:23:51,000 --> 01:23:54,900
especially correlated with the 
times that I'm taking hi-yah are

1514
01:23:54,900 --> 01:23:59,100
really when I have Daniel Jones 
mostly but you know, is it super

1515
01:23:59,100 --> 01:23:59,900
cheap? 
Bring back. 

1516
01:24:00,100 --> 01:24:02,000
And then they in any given 
draft. 

1517
01:24:02,000 --> 01:24:04,400
Any of these guys can be 
available in like the last round

1518
01:24:04,400 --> 01:24:07,000
like I just got Hodgins in the 
last round so you know these are

1519
01:24:07,000 --> 01:24:08,700
the most expensive. 
He's not expensive. 

1520
01:24:08,800 --> 01:24:13,400
If, you know, and he will fall. 
Yeah, I think I want to hear 

1521
01:24:13,400 --> 01:24:19,100
your thoughts on this because 
both you guys the like, I don't 

1522
01:24:19,100 --> 01:24:22,100
necessarily love hold on. 
Do some short people are doing 

1523
01:24:22,100 --> 01:24:24,200
the thing where you just grab a 
backfield and you're like, I'm 

1524
01:24:24,200 --> 01:24:28,200
betting on commanders running 
back or whatever, but I don't 

1525
01:24:28,200 --> 01:24:30,200
mind in this case. 
Being like, especially from a 

1526
01:24:30,200 --> 01:24:33,200
portfolio perspective, I'm like 
I'm overweight Giants. 

1527
01:24:33,200 --> 01:24:36,400
Wide receiver like Giants wide 
receiver Giants wide receiver 

1528
01:24:36,400 --> 01:24:38,400
has a good year like I'm gonna 
have a good year. 

1529
01:24:39,300 --> 01:24:44,500
Because I feel pretty good about
slayton's making the team 

1530
01:24:44,700 --> 01:24:47,500
Hodgins is making the team 
Campbell's making the team 

1531
01:24:47,800 --> 01:24:50,300
Windows making the team. 
I feel pretty good about that 

1532
01:24:50,300 --> 01:24:52,400
and hi, it's making the team 
Five Guys. 

1533
01:24:52,600 --> 01:24:55,700
That I feel pretty good about 
making the team pretty good to 

1534
01:24:55,700 --> 01:25:00,400
very good and so if I'm just 
overweight them as a group and 

1535
01:25:00,700 --> 01:25:02,600
Daniel Jones has a good year but
as I mentioned already betting 

1536
01:25:02,600 --> 01:25:06,900
on being a Jones then you know 
it's like the way wide receiver 

1537
01:25:06,900 --> 01:25:09,500
scoring happens the way this 
this probably not Acme's Ultra 

1538
01:25:09,500 --> 01:25:13,700
concentrated offense like maybe 
maybe the right answer Slaton 

1539
01:25:14,100 --> 01:25:16,200
but Juan Dale has the big week 
when you need it or whatever. 

1540
01:25:17,200 --> 01:25:18,200
Sure. 
Yeah. 

1541
01:25:18,200 --> 01:25:22,200
I definitely think it's a much 
different argument than grabbing

1542
01:25:22,200 --> 01:25:25,400
a whole back field because those
guys are competing against each 

1543
01:25:25,400 --> 01:25:27,200
other. 
I think a lot more whereas if 

1544
01:25:27,200 --> 01:25:31,000
this passing offense just goes 
off with ankle Jones, then I 

1545
01:25:31,008 --> 01:25:35,500
mean everyone's gonna Crush ATP 
or everyone can Maybe not. 

1546
01:25:35,500 --> 01:25:37,800
Maybe not every one, but 
multiple of these guys can crash

1547
01:25:37,800 --> 01:25:40,300
ATP. 
Whereas it's a much harder for 

1548
01:25:41,600 --> 01:25:45,100
Well guys in the backfield to 
smash, if you if you nail the 

1549
01:25:45,100 --> 01:25:49,900
three wide receiver set in New 
York and Daniel Jones, say Dow 

1550
01:25:49,900 --> 01:25:52,300
Jones doesn't have that going to
be here and Paris Campbell's the

1551
01:25:52,308 --> 01:25:56,800
starting slot and he gets like 
600 yards and four touchdowns. 

1552
01:25:57,200 --> 01:25:58,900
That's good in the eighteenth 
round. 

1553
01:25:59,200 --> 01:26:02,000
Like that's awesome. 
So it's like it's like, you 

1554
01:26:02,008 --> 01:26:06,200
know, that's the thing. 
The price makes this such a good

1555
01:26:06,200 --> 01:26:08,400
pet my opinion. 
Where, if you say, I'm going to 

1556
01:26:08,400 --> 01:26:10,100
go all in on the Chiefs wide 
receivers. 

1557
01:26:10,100 --> 01:26:12,400
I don't like hate that, is it? 
Take like, if you want to do 

1558
01:26:12,400 --> 01:26:15,600
that, I understand the logic 
for, but that can really hurt 

1559
01:26:15,600 --> 01:26:16,600
you. 
If you're taking a bunch of 

1560
01:26:16,600 --> 01:26:19,700
toning, the seventh, even a 
bunch of sky and you know, 

1561
01:26:19,700 --> 01:26:21,900
tempies in the 10th. 
Exactly, right. 

1562
01:26:21,900 --> 01:26:23,600
That can, that can really start 
to hurt you. 

1563
01:26:23,800 --> 01:26:27,300
Whereas, you know, I I take 
advantage on stack and I attack 

1564
01:26:27,300 --> 01:26:30,800
on two of these guys at the end 
and they are just not that good.

1565
01:26:31,200 --> 01:26:32,900
Okay. 
That is my 17 18 round picks 

1566
01:26:32,900 --> 01:26:34,900
like that. 
I'm fine with that. 

1567
01:26:35,100 --> 01:26:37,100
If they're so cheap that I think
you can go. 

1568
01:26:37,100 --> 01:26:39,900
I think you can go Hyatt and 
Slayton and just be like, I have

1569
01:26:39,900 --> 01:26:43,500
their deep threat like you know,
there's again, I wouldn't want 

1570
01:26:43,500 --> 01:26:48,000
to do that if I wouldn't take 
like I although I actually 

1571
01:26:48,000 --> 01:26:50,500
probably have taken Rishi rice 
and Sky more just hope they 

1572
01:26:50,500 --> 01:26:53,000
don't play the exact same role, 
but if they do play the exact 

1573
01:26:53,000 --> 01:26:54,000
same role of one of them is a 
bus. 

1574
01:26:54,000 --> 01:26:56,600
Like that's a burning a tenth 
round. 

1575
01:26:56,600 --> 01:27:00,500
Pick to find, you know, like 
some okay production out of slot

1576
01:27:00,500 --> 01:27:03,400
and Kansas City's, probably not 
going to be good but burning 

1577
01:27:03,400 --> 01:27:06,900
like an 18th round. 
Pick to get, you know, between 

1578
01:27:06,900 --> 01:27:10,900
your sixteenth and eighteenth 
round picks, like a usable wide 

1579
01:27:10,900 --> 01:27:14,700
receiver is I think like, fine 
they give you if you hit on one 

1580
01:27:14,700 --> 01:27:16,500
of your 16th or 18th round 
picks. 

1581
01:27:16,900 --> 01:27:17,500
Fuck. 
Yeah. 

1582
01:27:17,800 --> 01:27:20,600
So if I'm putting them together 
and I've increased my odds of 

1583
01:27:20,600 --> 01:27:24,000
one of them hitting 
significantly I don't know I 

1584
01:27:24,000 --> 01:27:28,400
kind of got into it. 
Yeah that's a good Trend are 

1585
01:27:28,400 --> 01:27:30,200
Jack's already have something 
else add there. 

1586
01:27:30,400 --> 01:27:34,600
Oh yeah I was just going to say 
like I don't think Hyatt and 

1587
01:27:34,600 --> 01:27:36,600
Slayton. 
I think it's unlikely but I 

1588
01:27:36,600 --> 01:27:44,200
don't think it's like 100% that 
if Slayton does, if High it goes

1589
01:27:44,200 --> 01:27:45,700
off then it means late in his 
dust. 

1590
01:27:45,700 --> 01:27:49,100
Like if Hodgins gets hurt maybe 
both of those guys are on the 

1591
01:27:49,108 --> 01:27:52,600
field a lot, you know. 
Maybe it's a little bit harder 

1592
01:27:52,600 --> 01:27:56,000
with Paris and Mondale because 
they might be more confined to 

1593
01:27:56,000 --> 01:27:59,200
the slab but with the outside 
guys especially like if Hodgins 

1594
01:27:59,200 --> 01:28:02,400
goes down and high it flashes 
early in the year and Slayton is

1595
01:28:02,400 --> 01:28:06,100
you know still adequate and like
those could be the three guys. 

1596
01:28:06,100 --> 01:28:11,400
So I don't think that it like 
they They do they are I think 

1597
01:28:11,500 --> 01:28:16,000
maybe negatively correlated for 
playing time but it's not like 

1598
01:28:16,000 --> 01:28:19,800
so crazy that both of them could
be on the field depending on 

1599
01:28:19,800 --> 01:28:21,400
what happens. 
Yeah. 

1600
01:28:21,400 --> 01:28:22,700
Right. 
Because High could play in the 

1601
01:28:22,708 --> 01:28:26,100
slot or yeah something goes 
wrong with Hodgins I think 

1602
01:28:26,100 --> 01:28:29,000
Hyatts Heights profiles so weird
that it's so hard to project him

1603
01:28:29,000 --> 01:28:32,100
to a specific role in the NFL. 
I think he's like most likely as

1604
01:28:32,100 --> 01:28:36,600
Z or slot but like you can see 
it's Layton at The X and hide at

1605
01:28:36,600 --> 01:28:38,800
the Z in some games of Hodgins 
is injured, what? 

1606
01:28:38,900 --> 01:28:40,800
Ever, like it's not something 
that's impossible. 

1607
01:28:40,800 --> 01:28:43,400
This is also this is Brian table
here, okay? 

1608
01:28:43,400 --> 01:28:46,900
Like What if they're running for
wide receiver sets? 

1609
01:28:47,800 --> 01:28:50,500
Yeah. 
What if they're running three 

1610
01:28:50,500 --> 01:28:55,700
wide receiver sets but you know 
Waller split out and is actually

1611
01:28:55,800 --> 01:28:58,900
basically a fourth wide receiver
for the purposes of that you 

1612
01:28:58,900 --> 01:29:01,600
know. 
So it's put out in the slot so 

1613
01:29:01,600 --> 01:29:04,000
it's like you could get a number
of these. 

1614
01:29:04,000 --> 01:29:06,300
The other thing is that we talk 
about Hodgins as the axe and 

1615
01:29:06,300 --> 01:29:08,900
stuff, he played a fair amount 
of a snaps in the slot last year

1616
01:29:09,400 --> 01:29:13,600
and so the idea that like he's 
not like Michael Gallup, who's 

1617
01:29:13,600 --> 01:29:16,100
just like George leagues. 
Exact same thing, every single 

1618
01:29:16,100 --> 01:29:19,000
snap. 
And in fact there are very few 

1619
01:29:19,000 --> 01:29:22,900
players like that most players 
move around to some extent. 

1620
01:29:22,900 --> 01:29:26,200
So yeah, I think Jack's right on
there where it's like, you could

1621
01:29:27,400 --> 01:29:30,800
This is so ambiguous that you 
know and there's probably points

1622
01:29:30,800 --> 01:29:32,900
here and maybe maybe pick two 
guys. 

1623
01:29:32,900 --> 01:29:36,300
Do you think are the exact same 
and like Hyatt and Slayton and 

1624
01:29:36,300 --> 01:29:37,100
then turns out? 
They're not. 

1625
01:29:37,100 --> 01:29:38,600
They're not the exact same 
multiplying. 

1626
01:29:39,800 --> 01:29:42,800
Yeah, let's talk. 
We hit a bit on the Chiefs, I do

1627
01:29:42,800 --> 01:29:46,400
want to talk Sky more because he
has risen pretty steadily over 

1628
01:29:46,400 --> 01:29:50,600
the past couple weeks, there was
a point where him and Rishi rise

1629
01:29:50,600 --> 01:29:51,800
for going. 
Pretty close round. 

1630
01:29:51,800 --> 01:29:54,900
Pick 130 sky is now up to 
around. 

1631
01:29:54,900 --> 01:29:59,700
Pick 15 pixels, right pick. 115 
up five spots over the past 

1632
01:29:59,700 --> 01:30:02,000
week. 
Jack what, what other? 

1633
01:30:02,000 --> 01:30:04,000
What are you doing? 
What is he our crew doing with 

1634
01:30:04,000 --> 01:30:06,800
these? 
These Chiefs wide receivers and 

1635
01:30:06,800 --> 01:30:11,300
specifically Sky more. 
We're below the sky right now. 

1636
01:30:11,500 --> 01:30:15,100
He was one of the hardest ones 
for us to project. 

1637
01:30:15,100 --> 01:30:19,000
So right now we have a pretty 
low base Target share, but I 

1638
01:30:19,000 --> 01:30:24,400
think he is our single biggest 
difference in our base Target, 

1639
01:30:24,400 --> 01:30:27,000
share, and what we're projecting
his ceiling. 

1640
01:30:27,200 --> 01:30:29,600
I could share and we bumped his 
odds of hitting those ceiling. 

1641
01:30:29,900 --> 01:30:33,400
That's healing but we're still 
behind but I think he's like a 

1642
01:30:33,400 --> 01:30:37,900
tough guy for to just like, put 
a number on projections wise 

1643
01:30:37,900 --> 01:30:42,100
because if he it's kind of like 
binary and they like if he gets 

1644
01:30:42,100 --> 01:30:47,100
that role like he's going to be 
a good bet but the odds of him 

1645
01:30:47,500 --> 01:30:50,700
hitting that role or like pretty
unknown. 

1646
01:30:50,900 --> 01:30:57,000
So I personally don't mind sky 
at ATP but we're pretty. 

1647
01:30:57,100 --> 01:31:01,100
T behind on him right now. 
If that makes sense. 

1648
01:31:01,200 --> 01:31:02,300
Where are you? 
How you guys handle like? 

1649
01:31:02,300 --> 01:31:05,400
Tony because he's Justin others.
Massive uncertainty. 

1650
01:31:05,800 --> 01:31:09,000
Yeah, he's kind of similar. 
I personally don't like Tony. 

1651
01:31:10,100 --> 01:31:12,100
But I think let me check where 
we are. 

1652
01:31:12,100 --> 01:31:15,100
Exactly, yeah. 
We're slightly below ATP but not

1653
01:31:15,100 --> 01:31:20,300
as much below as we are on Sky. 
We have them with the highest 

1654
01:31:20,300 --> 01:31:24,200
Target share obviously of the 
Chiefs receivers, but probably a

1655
01:31:24,200 --> 01:31:26,400
good amount below where we'd 
have them. 

1656
01:31:26,400 --> 01:31:30,600
If Stuff about you know the 
Chiefs love Tony, he's their 

1657
01:31:30,600 --> 01:31:33,500
wide receiver one and he's going
to be healthy and all that land 

1658
01:31:33,500 --> 01:31:38,500
for the 10 steps. 
We have a we have them six on 

1659
01:31:38,500 --> 01:31:41,000
the field for the first snap and
then plays for more snaps. 

1660
01:31:41,400 --> 01:31:44,900
Yeah we have Tony significantly 
Below in terms of Base 

1661
01:31:44,900 --> 01:31:48,800
projection where he would be. 
I think if he goes out week one 

1662
01:31:48,800 --> 01:31:51,700
and he plays, you know, I'm very
high snap share. 

1663
01:31:53,500 --> 01:31:55,800
What if he hits his ceiling 
projection, like what? 

1664
01:31:55,800 --> 01:31:58,400
Like, how high Hi. 
Do you have that? 

1665
01:31:58,400 --> 01:32:02,700
Like is he is he like a Once you
turn type of value for you guys 

1666
01:32:02,700 --> 01:32:04,500
or what? 
I don't think you'd get to the 

1667
01:32:04,500 --> 01:32:08,800
ones who train. 
I would just kind of 

1668
01:32:08,800 --> 01:32:11,200
guesstimating based off his 
ceiling Target. 

1669
01:32:11,200 --> 01:32:16,200
Sure it would probably be like 
Third round pick. 

1670
01:32:16,700 --> 01:32:19,100
I think sounds about right for 
the ceiling. 

1671
01:32:21,000 --> 01:32:24,300
Yeah that does. 
Yeah the thing is with like if 

1672
01:32:24,300 --> 01:32:28,900
it was like okay it's either sky
or it's Tony and it's going to 

1673
01:32:28,900 --> 01:32:32,000
be one of those two guys they're
going to get a full route tree 

1674
01:32:32,300 --> 01:32:35,100
that I'd be like okay they're 
both get bats but like it's just

1675
01:32:35,100 --> 01:32:38,200
not that simple like you had mvs
organ around like they played 

1676
01:32:38,300 --> 01:32:42,200
Justin Watson more snaps and Sky
Moore and Tony last year you got

1677
01:32:42,200 --> 01:32:45,200
Ritchie James there. 
If you want even go Bring up 

1678
01:32:45,200 --> 01:32:47,800
Justin Ross there so I'm just 
like, I don't know. 

1679
01:32:47,800 --> 01:32:52,000
Like how is it can we narrow it 
even down to like, more of her 

1680
01:32:52,000 --> 01:32:53,400
Stony? 
I don't think we can. 

1681
01:32:53,400 --> 01:32:55,200
So that's why I'm just kind of 
like, well, yeah, because it's 

1682
01:32:55,200 --> 01:32:59,600
not really more versed. 
Owning more more is the path 

1683
01:32:59,600 --> 01:33:03,500
upside is he is Juju, but not 
playing as bad as you played, 

1684
01:33:03,500 --> 01:33:04,800
especially the end of the 
season. 

1685
01:33:05,200 --> 01:33:07,100
That's the upside case. 
You're just getting cheaper, 

1686
01:33:07,100 --> 01:33:11,800
Juju and cheaper. 
Juju like stayed healthy, like 

1687
01:33:11,800 --> 01:33:15,200
Juju himself. 
As Juju was almost a Hit. 

1688
01:33:16,300 --> 01:33:19,300
So it's like it's not the 
biggest swing for the fences 

1689
01:33:19,300 --> 01:33:22,300
pick but in a range of the draft
word it's tough to find wide 

1690
01:33:22,300 --> 01:33:25,200
receiver value. 
If you were to hit on a better 

1691
01:33:25,200 --> 01:33:27,300
version of the juju play last 
year in the 10th round, you'll 

1692
01:33:27,300 --> 01:33:33,100
be very happy I think but Tony 
it's like I mean, his range of 

1693
01:33:33,100 --> 01:33:37,500
outcomes is, you know, it's like
the slight Arbitrage version of,

1694
01:33:37,508 --> 01:33:41,800
like, Tyreke or it looks sort of
like deante, Johnson, plus more 

1695
01:33:41,800 --> 01:33:44,200
explosion. 
But, with Pat Mahomes is kind of

1696
01:33:44,208 --> 01:33:48,700
his upside versus, he literally 
played five snaps in the Super 

1697
01:33:48,700 --> 01:33:50,400
Bowl, so he just like, might not
play. 

1698
01:33:51,000 --> 01:33:54,700
Yeah, obviously, they want him 
to play, but like, he could 

1699
01:33:54,700 --> 01:33:58,100
just, he could be a, he could be
kind of Miko Hardman, but even 

1700
01:33:58,100 --> 01:34:01,600
more injury-prone. 
So on one thing on Tony and I'm 

1701
01:34:01,600 --> 01:34:04,500
guys that are so ambiguous and 
confusing like this, I like 

1702
01:34:04,500 --> 01:34:08,800
going to do a bit of the film 
analysis and Matt Harmon 

1703
01:34:08,900 --> 01:34:12,200
reception perception recently 
broke down, Tony and was not 

1704
01:34:12,200 --> 01:34:14,800
very favorable about his his 
separation. 

1705
01:34:15,000 --> 01:34:17,900
I think sometimes guys and the 
point that that makes sometimes 

1706
01:34:17,900 --> 01:34:22,000
is guys that have very like 
flashy movements like in an 

1707
01:34:22,000 --> 01:34:24,800
individual route, they can make 
an absolute highlight reel. 

1708
01:34:24,800 --> 01:34:27,400
You know, someone pretty, certa 
ankle like they break someone's 

1709
01:34:27,400 --> 01:34:29,400
angles and they spent by him and
that's what Tony can. 

1710
01:34:29,600 --> 01:34:31,600
Do. 
But unlike a route by Route 

1711
01:34:31,600 --> 01:34:35,000
basis, he's not a consistent 
like separator route Runner, 

1712
01:34:35,800 --> 01:34:38,100
which I thought was, I thought 
was interesting, obviously, he 

1713
01:34:38,100 --> 01:34:40,900
does get get targeted on a huge 
share of his rat is very 

1714
01:34:40,900 --> 01:34:44,000
interesting because he gets his 
start for outrun is off the 

1715
01:34:44,000 --> 01:34:46,100
charts. 
So you would think and you watch

1716
01:34:46,100 --> 01:34:49,300
him play you would think he, I 
say deante Johnson life because 

1717
01:34:49,300 --> 01:34:53,000
it's like to me accomplishes. 
Two things is like a compass 

1718
01:34:53,000 --> 01:34:56,000
that they both guys play on the 
outside more than people think? 

1719
01:34:56,000 --> 01:34:58,000
I think now people realize 
deante Johnson plays on the 

1720
01:34:58,000 --> 01:35:01,500
outside but for a long time, We 
started at such a little, a DOT 

1721
01:35:01,800 --> 01:35:03,200
and Tony. 
Similarly, it's like, oh he must

1722
01:35:03,200 --> 01:35:04,800
be a slot. 
Only type of guy and both 

1723
01:35:04,800 --> 01:35:08,300
players can play on the outside 
but they also draw a ton of 

1724
01:35:08,300 --> 01:35:11,500
targets. 
So yeah, Dion's and Deonte does 

1725
01:35:11,500 --> 01:35:13,700
separate. 
Got a does. 

1726
01:35:13,900 --> 01:35:17,300
Yeah open Score loves him, Matt 
harm and always loves him. 

1727
01:35:17,800 --> 01:35:20,100
I think the thing with Tony 
stats, it's always tricky, 

1728
01:35:20,100 --> 01:35:22,100
right? 
It's back to the five snaps in 

1729
01:35:22,100 --> 01:35:24,300
the Super Bowl joke. 
Like, yes, if you have five 

1730
01:35:24,300 --> 01:35:27,100
routes in the game and you get 
two Targets on those routes, 

1731
01:35:27,200 --> 01:35:30,100
your numbers are going to flash 
but what each of those are 

1732
01:35:30,100 --> 01:35:33,000
screens, you know what 
percentage of those are more 

1733
01:35:33,000 --> 01:35:34,600
like gimmicky targets that don't
scale. 

1734
01:35:34,600 --> 01:35:38,400
So a full route share. 
So I think it's I still think 

1735
01:35:38,400 --> 01:35:40,800
there's a huge wide range of 
outcomes like and I think you 

1736
01:35:40,800 --> 01:35:45,100
know, Matt Harmon would not 
dismiss his upside either. 

1737
01:35:45,100 --> 01:35:48,700
I think it exists but it's like 
it's a pretty huge projection 

1738
01:35:49,200 --> 01:35:52,600
for pick whatever. 71 overall by
ATP. 

1739
01:35:54,100 --> 01:35:56,100
Yeah, that's what I was about. 
How much the upside is because 

1740
01:35:56,100 --> 01:35:58,700
the up because I mean it does 
feel high. 

1741
01:35:59,200 --> 01:36:04,600
Yeah, Jacks are used either. 
I was just going to say I agree 

1742
01:36:04,600 --> 01:36:08,100
that the upside like seems high 
even though we've never seen it 

1743
01:36:08,100 --> 01:36:11,400
for an extended period of time. 
But for the reasons you 

1744
01:36:11,400 --> 01:36:15,900
mentioned, I'm not really 
drafting Tony and the you know 

1745
01:36:15,900 --> 01:36:18,800
the Chiefs are hyping him up but
there was also a ton of fight 

1746
01:36:18,800 --> 01:36:21,600
for Tony before the Super Bowl 
and then you know, we know what 

1747
01:36:21,608 --> 01:36:27,800
happened there, right? 
So, yeah, I mean, I think it's 

1748
01:36:27,800 --> 01:36:30,800
kind of interesting and I think 
that the market is adjusted 

1749
01:36:31,000 --> 01:36:35,900
more, so this year than last 
year, or at least there's less 

1750
01:36:35,900 --> 01:36:39,900
discussion about, it is like, my
home is one MVP last year and 

1751
01:36:39,900 --> 01:36:42,600
none of his receivers were good.
So I don't think there's like a 

1752
01:36:42,600 --> 01:36:46,300
need for like, any of these guys
to like, smash ATP. 

1753
01:36:46,300 --> 01:36:50,800
Like obviously there's a path 
but like, I mean, you know, I 

1754
01:36:50,808 --> 01:36:54,400
don't think it's like, one of 
these guys is going to hit. 

1755
01:36:54,400 --> 01:36:56,400
Like, there's a chance, like, 
none of them especially if they 

1756
01:36:56,400 --> 01:36:58,200
do. 
The wrote the rotational stuff 

1757
01:36:58,200 --> 01:37:00,300
they're doing. 
Last year was like Justin Watson

1758
01:37:00,300 --> 01:37:04,000
running 40 percent routes of 
Just Wind Sprints like these 

1759
01:37:04,000 --> 01:37:08,300
random dudes coming in and just 
stealing like a little bit of 

1760
01:37:08,300 --> 01:37:10,800
Route. 
It really adds up to like hurt 

1761
01:37:10,900 --> 01:37:13,500
everybody, right? 
Like maybe I'm Jeff Ross might 

1762
01:37:13,500 --> 01:37:18,300
make the team which yeah is goes
to your point here of rotating 

1763
01:37:18,300 --> 01:37:19,900
these guys like Defrost makes 
the team. 

1764
01:37:19,900 --> 01:37:23,800
He's not going to play a ton 
probably but he's another Justin

1765
01:37:23,800 --> 01:37:25,500
Watson type or he may be split 
them to. 

1766
01:37:25,500 --> 01:37:31,600
Yes, yeah, exactly. 
So, which is back to my Chiefs 

1767
01:37:31,600 --> 01:37:34,300
wide receiver stance. 
I'm going to be heavily 

1768
01:37:34,300 --> 01:37:37,900
underweight, all these guys in 
non Mahomes teams and heavily 

1769
01:37:37,900 --> 01:37:39,900
overweight these guys Mahomes, 
teens, because I'm just trying 

1770
01:37:39,900 --> 01:37:42,800
to, I'm trying to think the, the
stack in the playoffs. 

1771
01:37:42,800 --> 01:37:45,400
And one of these guys does go 
off because I think on a weekly 

1772
01:37:45,400 --> 01:37:47,900
basis, these guys can still 
certainly have their taken Tony 

1773
01:37:48,000 --> 01:37:53,100
with, with moms. 
I have to like I have to like 

1774
01:37:53,100 --> 01:37:58,100
gag a little bit when I do it 
but I am I am still getting 

1775
01:37:58,100 --> 01:38:00,900
there. 
Yeah, with Mahomes man, I don't 

1776
01:38:00,900 --> 01:38:04,300
know why not. 
No, I Pizza probably smarter. 

1777
01:38:04,300 --> 01:38:06,800
It'll take them and I'm and I'm 
doing the dumb thing but I just 

1778
01:38:06,800 --> 01:38:09,400
I the gags a gag to harden like 
that. 

1779
01:38:09,400 --> 01:38:12,100
Yeah. 
You gotta pick someone else 

1780
01:38:12,100 --> 01:38:15,100
because you're throwing up. 
Yeah, he gagged radar screen. 

1781
01:38:18,600 --> 01:38:21,400
Okay, let's I gotta be honest, 
some of these ATP movements I'm 

1782
01:38:21,400 --> 01:38:22,500
like I don't even know what to 
talk about. 

1783
01:38:22,500 --> 01:38:24,800
I you because maybe the other 
interesting one where he's 

1784
01:38:24,800 --> 01:38:26,900
continuously moved up. 
Yeah. 

1785
01:38:26,900 --> 01:38:31,900
Yeah I don't think I you can 
Keenan are the two interesting 

1786
01:38:31,900 --> 01:38:36,600
ones here because they kind of 
point to the period of the draft

1787
01:38:36,600 --> 01:38:41,100
season that we're in which if I 
had to guess, I'd say right now 

1788
01:38:41,100 --> 01:38:47,300
through the next, like two 
weeks, maybe is going to be the 

1789
01:38:47,300 --> 01:38:51,700
most wide receiver heavy. 
That they are He gets and these 

1790
01:38:51,700 --> 01:38:56,800
two guys, I think when I'm 
sitting in the, if I have a pick

1791
01:38:57,200 --> 01:39:00,900
like that the 503. 
And I Uke's not there, I'm 

1792
01:39:00,900 --> 01:39:03,500
crushed. 
I'm actually crushing because 

1793
01:39:03,500 --> 01:39:05,500
it's like II. 
Don't like taking Chris Godwin 

1794
01:39:05,500 --> 01:39:07,700
and I'm like, very overweight 
course, got one. 

1795
01:39:08,100 --> 01:39:09,400
Because I just don't like, 
they're gone. 

1796
01:39:09,400 --> 01:39:12,300
Like, okay, I did, Sam told me I
should take two running backs in

1797
01:39:12,308 --> 01:39:15,900
the first three rounds, but now 
I've got two wide receivers 

1798
01:39:15,900 --> 01:39:18,100
through four rounds and Brandon,
are you just went and Chris 

1799
01:39:18,100 --> 01:39:19,000
Godwin's? 
My wide receiver. 

1800
01:39:19,000 --> 01:39:22,300
Three Like that walking blows. 
I hate that. 

1801
01:39:22,700 --> 01:39:24,900
I think the Buccaneers are gonna
be terrible and I don't think 

1802
01:39:24,900 --> 01:39:27,700
Chris Godwin's as good as all 
the other people that I hang out

1803
01:39:27,700 --> 01:39:30,200
with think so. 
I just, you know. 

1804
01:39:32,000 --> 01:39:34,200
Yeah. 
I like, I iook, but I think the 

1805
01:39:34,200 --> 01:39:37,300
market is kind of, he's like, 
starting to. 

1806
01:39:37,800 --> 01:39:40,500
I just think there's that that 
real need for wide receiver. 

1807
01:39:40,500 --> 01:39:44,200
Like this is almost I use rise 
is probably because like Chris 

1808
01:39:44,200 --> 01:39:47,900
olave is rising and Demonte 
Smith's Rising a bit like that's

1809
01:39:47,900 --> 01:39:51,500
what's causing this I think and 
then And Allen is also like 

1810
01:39:51,600 --> 01:39:54,700
indicative. 
I think this real struggle of 

1811
01:39:54,700 --> 01:39:59,300
what to do on the three four 
turn, because that's another 

1812
01:39:59,300 --> 01:40:01,700
spot where you kind of want to 
come up with at least one wide 

1813
01:40:01,700 --> 01:40:04,700
receiver there. 
Ideally, so keen and I think is 

1814
01:40:04,700 --> 01:40:08,900
kind of moving up and he's kind 
of testing because it's like a 

1815
01:40:10,000 --> 01:40:13,800
Wonder like if you you know 
right now is the first time that

1816
01:40:13,800 --> 01:40:17,200
that him getting cut is like not
baked in, even one percent into 

1817
01:40:17,200 --> 01:40:18,700
his ATP. 
It seems like it's taken a while

1818
01:40:18,700 --> 01:40:20,000
for that's it. 
Go away. 

1819
01:40:21,200 --> 01:40:24,600
Yeah, I agree. 
It's what are your thoughts Jack

1820
01:40:24,600 --> 01:40:26,600
on? 
I guess starting with with I you

1821
01:40:26,700 --> 01:40:30,200
about his I think he's risen 
like I don't know 15 spots in 

1822
01:40:30,200 --> 01:40:34,600
the last month or so for no 
apparent news driven reason, 

1823
01:40:34,700 --> 01:40:37,500
maybe it's pretty but yeah, you 
guys know he's been tearing up 

1824
01:40:37,800 --> 01:40:40,900
minicamp glowing reports at him 
in Camp. 

1825
01:40:41,000 --> 01:40:45,800
Yeah, he wasn't and I think like
the MVP at OTAs but I feel like 

1826
01:40:46,000 --> 01:40:50,400
he's done that like every year 
to be honest but I'm I am with 

1827
01:40:50,400 --> 01:40:52,700
Pat. 
I don't love, I okay this price 

1828
01:40:52,700 --> 01:40:55,200
point. 
Wendy bow is healthy last year. 

1829
01:40:56,400 --> 01:40:58,300
For whatever reason this like 
sticks out in my mind. 

1830
01:40:58,300 --> 01:41:00,400
We were like, so unsure what to 
do? 

1831
01:41:01,400 --> 01:41:04,600
I'm deeb oversee you when both 
of them were healthy and then 

1832
01:41:04,600 --> 01:41:08,400
Debo ended up just like not 
dominating and targets, but he 

1833
01:41:08,400 --> 01:41:11,000
had a healthy Gap over basically
everyone else. 

1834
01:41:11,000 --> 01:41:14,100
So I kind of think, like going 
into this year healthy Debo. 

1835
01:41:15,400 --> 01:41:18,700
I would prefer him pretty easily
like significant. 

1836
01:41:18,700 --> 01:41:21,000
I think there's a significant 
difference between the two Ooh, 

1837
01:41:21,600 --> 01:41:27,600
so much so that like, I am not 
overly interested in and I you 

1838
01:41:27,600 --> 01:41:29,400
catch his price continues to 
rise. 

1839
01:41:30,200 --> 01:41:32,900
So that's kind of where I'm at 
with iOS because they're gonna 

1840
01:41:32,900 --> 01:41:37,800
be such a run-heavy offense. 
The Purdy news is obviously good

1841
01:41:38,200 --> 01:41:44,400
for that passing offense. 
But, but even with that, like, I

1842
01:41:44,400 --> 01:41:48,000
think there's this, I don't 
think I use Target chair is 

1843
01:41:48,000 --> 01:41:50,800
going to be massive enough to 
edit ATP. 

1844
01:41:51,000 --> 01:41:57,200
Override like the the lack of 
overall targets that are 

1845
01:41:57,200 --> 01:42:00,100
available and that's kind of how
we're projecting it right now. 

1846
01:42:00,500 --> 01:42:03,400
On Keenan Allen. 
I actually do like him quite a 

1847
01:42:03,407 --> 01:42:04,800
bit. 
We have the treasures offense 

1848
01:42:04,800 --> 01:42:10,400
just like absolutely absurd like
significantly almost out of the 

1849
01:42:10,400 --> 01:42:13,600
pack in terms of plays per game 
and then they're going to pass a

1850
01:42:13,600 --> 01:42:18,600
ton and Keenan Allen even last 
year was learning targets at a 

1851
01:42:18,608 --> 01:42:21,700
high clip. 
So I get the a As concerns. 

1852
01:42:22,900 --> 01:42:27,300
But I think that like this 
offense as a whole is, I guess 

1853
01:42:27,300 --> 01:42:31,300
maybe the opposite of the 49ers 
in terms of there's just going 

1854
01:42:31,300 --> 01:42:33,300
to be so much past volume to go 
around. 

1855
01:42:34,200 --> 01:42:36,800
I'm kind of just buying everyone
and I know that the market has 

1856
01:42:36,800 --> 01:42:39,300
that price thin and that's why 
they're going so early. 

1857
01:42:39,300 --> 01:42:44,600
But I like Keenan Allen a quite 
a bit weary on a Mike Williams. 

1858
01:42:46,700 --> 01:42:48,700
I can give you the exact 
underwear ahead of him to, I 

1859
01:42:48,708 --> 01:42:50,800
think we're ahead of all the 
charges. 

1860
01:42:51,300 --> 01:42:56,400
Actually a bit below Johnston. 
But yeah. 

1861
01:42:56,400 --> 01:43:01,200
I like I like King and end like 
I've like, I like Mike Williams.

1862
01:43:01,200 --> 01:43:03,800
This you're fine. 
And I feel like I'm kind of like

1863
01:43:04,400 --> 01:43:07,700
a little bit on an island there 
among like people, I respect and

1864
01:43:07,700 --> 01:43:10,600
stuff. 
So I'm glad to hear you say that

1865
01:43:10,600 --> 01:43:13,200
because I just feel like this 
Dolphins could put up a bunch of

1866
01:43:13,208 --> 01:43:15,900
points and it would, they were 
pretty dysfunctional last year 

1867
01:43:15,900 --> 01:43:19,200
and Williams had a second 
straight season of over one 

1868
01:43:19,200 --> 01:43:22,800
point nine yards per hour on 
like, He does he does a very 

1869
01:43:22,800 --> 01:43:25,400
specific thing, right? 
He doesn't really separate, he 

1870
01:43:25,400 --> 01:43:28,400
jumps high, catch the ball falls
down and hurts his shoulder but 

1871
01:43:28,400 --> 01:43:31,300
he does that thing. 
Well yeah I definitely heard 

1872
01:43:31,300 --> 01:43:34,400
some shoulder pretty well. 
He's probably there there was 

1873
01:43:34,400 --> 01:43:37,800
like a stretch where I saw some 
tweets about like as Mike 

1874
01:43:37,800 --> 01:43:39,700
Williams actually healthy 
because there was no news but I 

1875
01:43:39,708 --> 01:43:43,700
think there was a report like a 
week ago that said he's fine and

1876
01:43:43,700 --> 01:43:47,700
with that I'm basically back in 
on Mike Williams well because 

1877
01:43:47,700 --> 01:43:50,700
last year they were keen and 
microphones are two three. 

1878
01:43:50,900 --> 01:43:52,900
Index. 
Like I get that Quinton Johnson,

1879
01:43:52,900 --> 01:43:55,300
which should probably hurt them 
a little bit, but I think we 

1880
01:43:55,300 --> 01:43:58,300
should be more excited about the
Chargers offense this year with 

1881
01:43:58,500 --> 01:44:01,300
Kellen Moore replacing whoever 
there though she was. 

1882
01:44:01,300 --> 01:44:04,400
Last year, I'm liking the 
Lombardy and are not. 

1883
01:44:04,400 --> 01:44:07,200
Yeah. 
And that's with wide receivers 

1884
01:44:07,200 --> 01:44:12,700
being significantly priced up. 
So I guess there's age concerns 

1885
01:44:12,700 --> 01:44:17,100
on Canaan and injury and Quentin
concerns on Mike Williams. 

1886
01:44:17,100 --> 01:44:19,600
But in an environment, where 
Riders here is growing 

1887
01:44:19,600 --> 01:44:21,500
significantly earlier. 
ER and they're going 

1888
01:44:21,500 --> 01:44:25,000
significantly later in. 
What looks like a better Senate 

1889
01:44:25,400 --> 01:44:29,900
situation offensively? 
You know, it's an interesting 

1890
01:44:29,900 --> 01:44:33,000
dichotomy I guess, although 
there are real concerns on 

1891
01:44:33,000 --> 01:44:36,300
Keenan Age and and Mike Williams
injuries. 

1892
01:44:36,300 --> 01:44:39,900
Yes, for Keenan's age. 
It's kind of just like until he 

1893
01:44:39,900 --> 01:44:41,400
shows me, he can't do it 
anymore. 

1894
01:44:41,400 --> 01:44:44,000
I'm not going to be too worried 
about the age and I get that 

1895
01:44:44,000 --> 01:44:45,600
eventually, I'll be wrong on 
that. 

1896
01:44:45,600 --> 01:44:48,000
But like, I don't know he's not 
someone who relies on 

1897
01:44:48,100 --> 01:44:50,700
athleticism and he's never 
alone. 

1898
01:44:50,900 --> 01:44:53,500
When I've let it Sizzle, yeah, 
he's never been particularly, 

1899
01:44:53,500 --> 01:44:56,600
like, I think people kind of 
slap the injury-prone label on 

1900
01:44:56,600 --> 01:44:58,400
him, because he got hurt last 
year and then early in his 

1901
01:44:58,400 --> 01:44:59,700
career. 
That it was a stretch, Cruise 

1902
01:44:59,700 --> 01:45:02,200
injured a bunch, but he had a 
huge stretch of his career where

1903
01:45:02,200 --> 01:45:07,200
he was never injured, like 2018 
through 2021 where he was 

1904
01:45:07,300 --> 01:45:08,600
consistently out there all the 
time. 

1905
01:45:08,600 --> 01:45:14,600
So I like comparing, I you can 
Kenan, I would say like I think 

1906
01:45:14,600 --> 01:45:17,000
Keenan's appropriately priced 
within the wide receiver 

1907
01:45:17,000 --> 01:45:18,700
rankings. 
I think I don't hate. 

1908
01:45:18,700 --> 01:45:21,500
Are you by any means? 
But like Yeah, I don't know. 

1909
01:45:21,500 --> 01:45:25,600
It starts to feel a little Rich 
at 52 for me but, you know, I 

1910
01:45:25,608 --> 01:45:27,200
don't hate it. 
I don't hate it either. 

1911
01:45:27,200 --> 01:45:29,600
I just think I'm more bought in 
on the Keenan rise and I you 

1912
01:45:29,600 --> 01:45:33,400
grass. 
No, I am too but that is one of 

1913
01:45:33,407 --> 01:45:35,800
the things to kind of go back to
the running back thing for S, 

1914
01:45:35,800 --> 01:45:38,200
like that's what you're finding 
yourself. 

1915
01:45:38,200 --> 01:45:40,900
If you take, you know, wide 
receiver running back running 

1916
01:45:40,900 --> 01:45:45,100
back here, kind of locked into 
brand, I you or Chris Godwin a 

1917
01:45:45,100 --> 01:45:50,100
reaching for Marquis Brown, you 
know, it's just it's tough. 

1918
01:45:50,200 --> 01:45:53,900
That's a really Tough range of 
the draft at the, the 45 turn. 

1919
01:45:54,500 --> 01:45:57,100
You used to be able to more 
reliably get Cristian Kirk. 

1920
01:45:57,100 --> 01:45:59,700
They're quite also don't love 
but like I know you guys are 

1921
01:45:59,700 --> 01:46:02,100
pretty high on Kirk right jack. 
Yeah. 

1922
01:46:02,100 --> 01:46:04,200
I like her good amount. 
Yeah. 

1923
01:46:05,500 --> 01:46:07,800
So that's a, I don't know. 
Just right now. 

1924
01:46:07,800 --> 01:46:10,300
It's just like, it's just a 
difficult. 

1925
01:46:10,300 --> 01:46:14,200
That's one of the most difficult
spots of the of the draft right 

1926
01:46:14,200 --> 01:46:15,700
now. 
I think that 45 turn. 

1927
01:46:16,600 --> 01:46:20,900
Yeah, it's tough. 
It's funny because like, I 

1928
01:46:20,900 --> 01:46:24,800
almost want like sometimes in my
mind I kind of want to skip like

1929
01:46:24,800 --> 01:46:28,400
I you can Godwin and just go to 
like pit man. 

1930
01:46:28,400 --> 01:46:30,300
I can, you know, I can talk 
myself in the upside with 

1931
01:46:30,300 --> 01:46:31,900
Pittman a little bit. 
Maybe Anthony Richardson is 

1932
01:46:31,900 --> 01:46:32,700
good. 
I get that. 

1933
01:46:32,700 --> 01:46:34,800
The passing volume concerns are 
scary there. 

1934
01:46:35,100 --> 01:46:37,400
Tyler Lockett can just do it 
again. 

1935
01:46:37,400 --> 01:46:39,300
What? 
She's always done for seven 

1936
01:46:39,300 --> 01:46:42,300
years in a row, down to 
Johnson's, going to draw 150 

1937
01:46:42,300 --> 01:46:45,200
targets for the fifth year in a 
row, right? 

1938
01:46:45,400 --> 01:46:48,000
I don't know. 
I almost wonder if like, I want 

1939
01:46:48,000 --> 01:46:51,600
to skip skip the Godwin pick. 
As I used to be a nun. 

1940
01:46:51,600 --> 01:46:54,400
God, when I think I'm over 
exposed to them, but the point 

1941
01:46:54,400 --> 01:46:57,900
you made about the box and every
every day, I'm just like, man, 

1942
01:46:57,900 --> 01:47:00,500
why am I taking box wide 
receivers like you also Doug 

1943
01:47:01,100 --> 01:47:03,400
doesn't have a great Target, 
share it hurts for our own. 

1944
01:47:03,400 --> 01:47:05,700
Like it's all it's very volume 
driven with God. 

1945
01:47:05,700 --> 01:47:08,600
When recently I mean part he's 
coming up in 20, CL last year. 

1946
01:47:08,600 --> 01:47:10,200
So you're hoping he bounces back
with that. 

1947
01:47:10,200 --> 01:47:14,200
But yeah, I don't know. 
I'm you look at any, anybody in 

1948
01:47:14,208 --> 01:47:16,000
the timber? 
They offense last year though, 

1949
01:47:16,000 --> 01:47:17,500
it was just volume driven, 
right? 

1950
01:47:17,500 --> 01:47:19,200
Like that. 
Offense was so inefficient, but 

1951
01:47:19,200 --> 01:47:21,800
just ran a shit ton of plays. 
So, I don't know if that was 

1952
01:47:21,800 --> 01:47:24,300
him, I don't know. 
I think the offense was kind of 

1953
01:47:24,308 --> 01:47:26,700
broken last year, but it's not 
going to get fixed, that's gonna

1954
01:47:26,700 --> 01:47:30,600
go away horse. 
Yeah, it's gonna get weird 

1955
01:47:30,600 --> 01:47:32,500
thing. 
Don't they have the guy from 

1956
01:47:32,500 --> 01:47:33,200
Seattle. 
This year. 

1957
01:47:33,200 --> 01:47:33,800
Now is there. 
No. 

1958
01:47:33,800 --> 01:47:39,700
See, like No one wants to talk 
about this because it seems 

1959
01:47:39,700 --> 01:47:43,000
insane because Richard white 
cannot run the ball, but like 

1960
01:47:44,000 --> 01:47:45,400
could they just run the ball 
more? 

1961
01:47:46,100 --> 01:47:48,500
You know? 
I mean and it probably relies on

1962
01:47:48,500 --> 01:47:53,400
Sean Tucker making the team and 
being okay or them signing Zeke 

1963
01:47:53,400 --> 01:47:57,600
or something, but like I don't 
know maybe latavius Murray gets 

1964
01:47:57,600 --> 01:47:59,800
cut and they signed him and then
they just run the ball way more 

1965
01:47:59,800 --> 01:48:00,900
than we think. 
Yeah. 

1966
01:48:00,900 --> 01:48:04,700
I think that's interesting to 
not as much because of the o.c. 

1967
01:48:04,700 --> 01:48:07,900
but because I I think there's 
been like two consecutive 

1968
01:48:07,900 --> 01:48:11,600
seasons of the Bucks saying we 
want to run the ball more and 

1969
01:48:11,600 --> 01:48:14,500
then they haven't and maybe 
that's just like the Tom Brady 

1970
01:48:14,500 --> 01:48:18,200
factor and and now that they 
don't have, you know, the goat 

1971
01:48:18,300 --> 01:48:20,500
calling the shots all the time 
that they actually do. 

1972
01:48:20,500 --> 01:48:22,000
Try to establish it a little 
bit. 

1973
01:48:22,500 --> 01:48:24,600
They question, I guess would be,
how much are they able to do 

1974
01:48:24,600 --> 01:48:26,200
that? 
If they're as bad as they 

1975
01:48:26,200 --> 01:48:29,100
expect, and then they kind of 
get forced into throwing, but I 

1976
01:48:29,100 --> 01:48:31,300
do think they're going to try to
run the ball more than they have

1977
01:48:31,300 --> 01:48:34,100
in previous Seasons. 
But we've seen right there were 

1978
01:48:34,108 --> 01:48:38,300
three teams last year You said, 
you cannot force me to throw the

1979
01:48:38,300 --> 01:48:43,100
ball Bears, the Falcons and the 
Panthers at the, in the back 

1980
01:48:43,100 --> 01:48:48,500
half and they're all terrible. 
But the coaching staffs two of 

1981
01:48:48,500 --> 01:48:49,700
the, three of them kept their 
jobs. 

1982
01:48:50,000 --> 01:48:51,800
You know what I mean? 
I think that like 

1983
01:48:51,800 --> 01:48:55,100
self-preservation here for Todd 
Bowles, you're going for the 101

1984
01:48:56,000 --> 01:48:59,300
in the real life NFL draft, but 
you got to get it without 

1985
01:48:59,300 --> 01:49:01,800
getting fired and so you don't 
want, you don't want to get 

1986
01:49:01,800 --> 01:49:04,200
embarrassed. 
So I do think most likely 

1987
01:49:04,200 --> 01:49:06,200
scenario, you know, the most 
likely outcome here for this. 

1988
01:49:06,400 --> 01:49:08,700
Team, they throw a ton because 
it can be terrible. 

1989
01:49:08,900 --> 01:49:12,300
But I do think there are some 
like reasonably likely scenarios

1990
01:49:12,300 --> 01:49:16,100
where they actually like play 
Panthers ball and try to run the

1991
01:49:16,100 --> 01:49:19,000
ball a lot. 
And maybe again they probably 

1992
01:49:19,000 --> 01:49:20,800
need to sign somebody cause I 
don't think White's this guy, 

1993
01:49:20,800 --> 01:49:25,300
but they are able to run the 
ball fairly effectively in a 

1994
01:49:25,300 --> 01:49:27,900
high-volume way. 
And then they, they play action 

1995
01:49:27,900 --> 01:49:30,900
off of that, which is, which is 
how I would want to use Baker. 

1996
01:49:31,400 --> 01:49:33,500
You tell me after, like, drop 
back like 40 times with Baker. 

1997
01:49:33,500 --> 01:49:34,800
Mayfield. 
No, thanks, I'm going to get 

1998
01:49:34,800 --> 01:49:38,100
fired. 
Yeah, that that the they have to

1999
01:49:38,100 --> 01:49:41,000
sign someone is interesting and 
I kind of want to transition 

2000
01:49:41,000 --> 01:49:45,200
that to to a Dalvin cook 
conversation, the box kind of 

2001
01:49:45,200 --> 01:49:47,100
make a lot of sense to Dalvin 
cook destination. 

2002
01:49:47,200 --> 01:49:49,100
Look I don't know the cap 
situation for them so maybe I'm 

2003
01:49:49,100 --> 01:49:52,600
wrong about that but I guess a 
broader Dalvin cook question 

2004
01:49:52,600 --> 01:49:55,200
because he's a he's a tough guy 
to price. 

2005
01:49:55,200 --> 01:49:57,100
I actually thought he would fall
a lot more than this. 

2006
01:49:57,100 --> 01:50:01,000
I'm kind of shocked, he's still 
hovering around pick 84. 

2007
01:50:01,000 --> 01:50:03,700
I like a lot of other running 
backs in that range better. 

2008
01:50:03,700 --> 01:50:08,600
But Jack, do you are Guys, like,
how do you guys even treat like 

2009
01:50:08,600 --> 01:50:10,800
free agents? 
First of all, you see, are kind 

2010
01:50:10,800 --> 01:50:15,900
of curious and that and second, 
how do you view Dalvin cook at 

2011
01:50:15,900 --> 01:50:21,100
pick, 84? 
Yeah, so we project them for a 

2012
01:50:21,200 --> 01:50:24,600
carry and Target share, and then
kind of just assumed League 

2013
01:50:24,600 --> 01:50:28,500
average efficiency. 
That's, that's how we do it. 

2014
01:50:28,500 --> 01:50:31,500
And we also have Delvin 
significantly below where he 

2015
01:50:31,500 --> 01:50:33,600
fell on that. 
I'm also like pretty surprised 

2016
01:50:33,600 --> 01:50:35,500
that he's he's only here right 
now. 

2017
01:50:35,700 --> 01:50:41,600
Now, and we with the free 
agents, I think we react to the 

2018
01:50:41,600 --> 01:50:47,400
market, more than we would. 
Otherwise, like, if all the in 

2019
01:50:47,400 --> 01:50:50,600
physique is falling, like we 
kind of just try to not have. 

2020
01:50:51,100 --> 01:50:54,400
Yeah, that different of takes on
the fridge. 

2021
01:50:54,400 --> 01:51:00,600
And guys, if that makes sense, 
right or wrong, I'm not really 

2022
01:51:00,600 --> 01:51:03,500
interested in the oven at his 
current ATP. 

2023
01:51:03,800 --> 01:51:05,500
We don't know where he'll sign 
Maybe. 

2024
01:51:05,700 --> 01:51:08,300
Box. 
But I guess that depends on how 

2025
01:51:08,300 --> 01:51:10,900
much he wants to play on a 
terrible team. 

2026
01:51:11,800 --> 01:51:14,100
Dolphins would be, I guess, a 
fun spot. 

2027
01:51:14,100 --> 01:51:17,900
But it feels like every day he 
doesn't sign with the dolphins 

2028
01:51:17,900 --> 01:51:21,500
and maybe makes it more 
unlikely, he signed with the 

2029
01:51:21,500 --> 01:51:24,000
dolphins because they were 
rumored immediately. 

2030
01:51:24,000 --> 01:51:28,700
And then if that was such a 
match, then I guess, why are we 

2031
01:51:28,700 --> 01:51:32,500
still waiting? 
If that makes sense, but I'll 

2032
01:51:32,500 --> 01:51:34,800
fans want. 
Yeah, the Dolphins on quickly. 

2033
01:51:34,800 --> 01:51:37,000
I just don't think. 
I think I think the Dolphins 

2034
01:51:37,000 --> 01:51:39,600
like that is so low, like, they 
shelled out like two-and-a-half 

2035
01:51:39,600 --> 01:51:44,400
guaranteed each to moster and 
Wilson two and a half per per 

2036
01:51:44,400 --> 01:51:47,300
player, they took a chain and 
what the the early third or mid 

2037
01:51:47,300 --> 01:51:50,500
third round, like it doesn't 
unless cook is willing to pay 

2038
01:51:50,500 --> 01:51:52,900
for pennies. 
It just doesn't make any sense 

2039
01:51:52,900 --> 01:51:54,800
to me that I am. 
You would be willing to pay him 

2040
01:51:54,800 --> 01:51:57,100
what he wants, like 8 million or
whatever, right. 

2041
01:51:57,100 --> 01:52:02,400
Like it seems like a pretty big 
over spend at running back. 

2042
01:52:02,400 --> 01:52:05,900
So sorry, I cut you off Jack but
I just don't I think that Miami 

2043
01:52:05,900 --> 01:52:09,400
things like unlikely, which is 
maybe against the market. 

2044
01:52:10,800 --> 01:52:16,600
Yeah, that's fair. 
I mean if you don't I guess I'm 

2045
01:52:16,600 --> 01:52:19,300
curious. 
If you don't think it's the 

2046
01:52:19,300 --> 01:52:23,500
Dolphins or I don't mean you 
didn't mention the Broncos but 

2047
01:52:23,500 --> 01:52:27,500
maybe the Broncos to like dude 
do you think he's gonna sign for

2048
01:52:27,500 --> 01:52:30,600
like a like a bucks type team, 
where he's in line for a bunch 

2049
01:52:30,600 --> 01:52:35,000
of work but you know they don't 
really have a hope of competing.

2050
01:52:35,200 --> 01:52:37,200
I guess it's kind of guess work 
at that point. 

2051
01:52:38,400 --> 01:52:40,800
Yeah. 
I don't know. 

2052
01:52:40,800 --> 01:52:45,000
Yeah, I kind of do think if he's
prioritizing money, then and 

2053
01:52:45,000 --> 01:52:48,600
this is way down narrative 
street, but that narrative, that

2054
01:52:49,400 --> 01:52:52,600
patches gave of, you know, the 
Bucks coaching staff, not 

2055
01:52:52,600 --> 01:52:55,200
wanting to be embarrassed and at
least lose and be closed and 

2056
01:52:55,200 --> 01:52:57,500
games. 
I think they can sell themselves

2057
01:52:57,500 --> 01:53:01,000
on like a star of years pass and
Dalvin cook and maybe even sell 

2058
01:53:01,000 --> 01:53:02,800
the fan base on selling some 
jerseys. 

2059
01:53:02,800 --> 01:53:05,400
I don't know who else and, you 
know, Tampa's selling a bunch of

2060
01:53:05,407 --> 01:53:08,100
jerseys with Baker Mayfield and 
Kyle traffic quarterback. 

2061
01:53:08,100 --> 01:53:10,700
So that could be one where, 
like, Doesn't make any sense, 

2062
01:53:10,700 --> 01:53:14,300
really? 
From like a real-life fit, like 

2063
01:53:14,300 --> 01:53:16,900
adding a running back when 
you're a terrible team but I 

2064
01:53:16,900 --> 01:53:18,600
could see that one. 
And then I think the other ones 

2065
01:53:18,600 --> 01:53:21,600
are just, like you mentioned, 
Broncos, jets these teams that 

2066
01:53:21,600 --> 01:53:26,600
have early injury, early season,
injury concerns at running back.

2067
01:53:26,700 --> 01:53:28,400
I think. 
Dalvin maybe is holding out hope

2068
01:53:28,400 --> 01:53:31,700
that one of those teams gets 
gets desperate, if the running 

2069
01:53:31,700 --> 01:53:34,100
backs recovery doesn't go to 
plan. 

2070
01:53:35,200 --> 01:53:36,900
But yeah, besides that, that's 
the thing. 

2071
01:53:36,900 --> 01:53:39,600
That's why I think is ATP. 
Should be much lower like I do. 

2072
01:53:39,800 --> 01:53:42,600
See a ton of upsides and they're
like, what is the upside 

2073
01:53:42,600 --> 01:53:44,300
scenario? 
Where you feel good about Dalvin

2074
01:53:44,300 --> 01:53:48,400
cook at pick like 60 said 
because I think you need to have

2075
01:53:48,400 --> 01:53:53,000
some upside scenario where it's 
worth the risk of taking a pic 

2076
01:53:53,000 --> 01:53:55,100
84 and I just don't really see 
that. 

2077
01:53:55,100 --> 01:53:58,100
I I guess it's Miami but I don't
know. 

2078
01:53:58,100 --> 01:54:02,000
I don't think that's very likely
Patti really upside or Jack if 

2079
01:54:02,008 --> 01:54:05,900
you have a sorry I was just 
going to say I we maybe have 

2080
01:54:05,900 --> 01:54:09,700
toggled it a little bit but our 
Delvin projection right now is 

2081
01:54:09,800 --> 01:54:14,400
is almost where it was like from
our gut reaction when he first 

2082
01:54:14,900 --> 01:54:19,500
got cut and we have him like 
120th overall, which I think is 

2083
01:54:19,500 --> 01:54:22,500
a lot more fair. 
Yeah, I have him. 

2084
01:54:23,700 --> 01:54:26,800
My rank is, are like bacon ATP, 
a fair amount but I think he's 

2085
01:54:26,800 --> 01:54:28,600
one of the players. 
So I just said, do not bacon 

2086
01:54:28,600 --> 01:54:32,400
ATP. 
I have them at 96th, which is, 

2087
01:54:32,800 --> 01:54:35,000
you know, still quite a bit of a
for you guys. 

2088
01:54:35,000 --> 01:54:38,000
But, you know, a full round 
below his actual ATP. 

2089
01:54:40,100 --> 01:54:42,800
You know, I also don't move the 
market like he's ER, so I try to

2090
01:54:42,800 --> 01:54:44,300
stay a little bit more Market a 
line. 

2091
01:54:44,800 --> 01:54:47,000
But yeah. 
So I have him. 

2092
01:54:47,300 --> 01:54:50,300
I just, I just don't get it. 
I completely agree like what 

2093
01:54:51,100 --> 01:54:55,500
like him signing with Tampa Bay 
would be maybe a best case 

2094
01:54:55,500 --> 01:54:58,000
scenario at this point I guess 
the best case scenario. 

2095
01:54:58,000 --> 01:55:00,200
And and it's not and who's 
excited about that. 

2096
01:55:00,300 --> 01:55:04,700
Yeah, I wouldn't be all that 
excited about it but I guess the

2097
01:55:04,700 --> 01:55:07,000
only way I could really see his 
ATP moving up is, if mixing 

2098
01:55:07,000 --> 01:55:10,300
doesn't take a pay cut, they cut
out I bring and Alvin that's 

2099
01:55:10,300 --> 01:55:12,300
that's your path to upside 
because at that point that's a 

2100
01:55:12,300 --> 01:55:14,500
good one. 
You're drafting pretty high. 

2101
01:55:15,400 --> 01:55:19,600
That's like maybe I don't think 
you had go this high but yeah. 

2102
01:55:19,600 --> 01:55:23,200
Mix-ins off the team Cooks there
and it's just cooking treyvion 

2103
01:55:23,200 --> 01:55:25,900
Williams and Chase Brown. 
Then I think that's like 

2104
01:55:25,900 --> 01:55:30,600
suddenly I don't know third 
fourth round pick in years past 

2105
01:55:31,200 --> 01:55:34,000
or something like that. 
So that is a pretty good. 

2106
01:55:34,100 --> 01:55:37,700
Offside. 
Yeah, I think you would case may

2107
01:55:37,700 --> 01:55:41,100
be really tough actually, 
because I would still want to 

2108
01:55:41,108 --> 01:55:44,700
take Gibbs over him, but I don't
know that he would go behind 

2109
01:55:44,700 --> 01:55:46,100
Gibbs. 
He might go, he might go ahead 

2110
01:55:46,100 --> 01:55:50,800
and Travis etn. 
If if he were, if mixing were 

2111
01:55:50,800 --> 01:55:54,000
cut and Dalvin cook were signed 
on the on the Bangles, I mean 

2112
01:55:55,100 --> 01:55:57,800
The Syndicate. 
Anybody's role is like 

2113
01:55:58,000 --> 01:55:59,800
regardless, what you think, it 
Cooks talent, that the 

2114
01:55:59,800 --> 01:56:02,900
Cincinnati running back roll is 
just so, so, so so good like 

2115
01:56:02,900 --> 01:56:04,500
Nixon. 
Mix. 

2116
01:56:04,500 --> 01:56:08,600
It has pretty massive receiving 
fault will not massive but big 

2117
01:56:08,600 --> 01:56:11,100
receiving volumes even though 
he's not the third down back on 

2118
01:56:11,100 --> 01:56:13,700
the team. 
Like it's just an offense that 

2119
01:56:13,700 --> 01:56:15,400
plays with Pace. 
They're going to throw a lot. 

2120
01:56:15,400 --> 01:56:18,400
They throw the running backs, 
you get 60 or shh perceptions 

2121
01:56:18,400 --> 01:56:19,900
last year. 
Joe Mixon were complaining, the 

2122
01:56:19,900 --> 01:56:23,100
whole year about how he doesn't 
plan their towns like six years 

2123
01:56:23,100 --> 01:56:25,400
old. 
He was displaced for some games 

2124
01:56:25,900 --> 01:56:30,300
here on how to roll and then, 
yeah, it's just very valuable. 

2125
01:56:30,900 --> 01:56:33,400
Yeah, I'm pretty heavy 
overweight. 

2126
01:56:33,400 --> 01:56:35,400
Leonard, fournette. 
Right now because I think he's 

2127
01:56:35,400 --> 01:56:38,100
sort of a no-brainer guy to 
bring in if they cut mixing 

2128
01:56:38,400 --> 01:56:40,300
because I think Lenny would sign
for like a mill. 

2129
01:56:40,900 --> 01:56:43,000
Feel like, let's wearing a 
wedding ring baby. 

2130
01:56:44,600 --> 01:56:47,600
So I don't know. 
That's, that's the one I'm 

2131
01:56:47,600 --> 01:56:50,400
Dreaming on but but anyone who 
signs are mixing gets cut and 

2132
01:56:50,400 --> 01:56:52,800
they signed someone else, he's, 
it's hard not to get a little 

2133
01:56:52,800 --> 01:56:56,200
excited. 
Yeah, I have so much Lenny. 

2134
01:56:56,200 --> 01:56:58,800
It's like I did this last year 
with Julio, which is funny 

2135
01:56:58,800 --> 01:57:01,400
because you got your Victory lap
screenshots when he signed with 

2136
01:57:01,407 --> 01:57:05,300
the box and then he's had like 
100 yards all season, but I'm 

2137
01:57:05,300 --> 01:57:08,000
just taking for net and every 
draft, like, I don't care. 

2138
01:57:09,000 --> 01:57:11,300
I want the upside. 
I don't, I don't see a scenario 

2139
01:57:11,300 --> 01:57:14,600
where he doesn't play this year.
So he's like, an 18th round 

2140
01:57:14,600 --> 01:57:16,900
pick. 
Now, like I'm not literally 

2141
01:57:16,900 --> 01:57:20,100
every not literally every draft,
but I probably have like, 20, 30

2142
01:57:20,100 --> 01:57:23,100
percent or so, I have eight. 
I have 19 percent I've not yet 

2143
01:57:23,100 --> 01:57:25,000
absent for now. 
So, I'm with you. 

2144
01:57:26,800 --> 01:57:32,600
Yeah last last one here we 
haven't talked about Trey Lance 

2145
01:57:32,600 --> 01:57:36,500
and maybe like two full episodes
so he pops back up here on the 

2146
01:57:36,500 --> 01:57:40,200
fallers chart. 
I'm curious Jack how you're 

2147
01:57:40,200 --> 01:57:42,200
viewing? 
San Francisco quarterback 

2148
01:57:42,600 --> 01:57:45,500
situation, the love. 
I think the market is like more 

2149
01:57:45,500 --> 01:57:48,600
and more certain each day. 
That Purdy is the guy. 

2150
01:57:48,600 --> 01:57:50,500
Hence I'm reaching Landry. 
Yeah. 

2151
01:57:50,500 --> 01:57:51,900
My Lance's you're going out 
below. 

2152
01:57:52,300 --> 01:57:55,100
Yeah. 
What are your thoughts Jack? 

2153
01:57:55,400 --> 01:57:58,300
Yeah, I don't. 
Think it's like that much of a. 

2154
01:57:58,800 --> 01:58:04,000
Like I'm very confident that 
it's pretty and they pretty much

2155
01:58:04,000 --> 01:58:07,200
said as much and every report in
terms of his injury has been 

2156
01:58:08,000 --> 01:58:10,800
optimistic. 
So I think there's a real chance

2157
01:58:10,800 --> 01:58:13,300
pretty start. 
Speak one and Trail Oz, just 

2158
01:58:13,300 --> 01:58:17,800
irrelevant the whole year to be 
honest, so that's your surprise,

2159
01:58:17,800 --> 01:58:21,000
he's being drafted still. 
I yeah, I agree with that. 

2160
01:58:21,300 --> 01:58:25,100
We've been low on Lance the 
whole the whole time and has a 

2161
01:58:25,100 --> 01:58:26,100
deep. 
He's falling. 

2162
01:58:26,600 --> 01:58:29,200
Lynn and we're still like way 
below. 

2163
01:58:30,300 --> 01:58:33,200
I like I've is the out for him 
like a trade. 

2164
01:58:33,200 --> 01:58:36,100
Like I don't really see. 
It doesn't. 

2165
01:58:36,100 --> 01:58:38,400
I don't really see the path. 
To be honest. 

2166
01:58:38,400 --> 01:58:40,600
If you if you want to draft a 
quarterback who's not going to 

2167
01:58:40,608 --> 01:58:43,100
play this year. 
Just just take Tom Brady Davante

2168
01:58:43,100 --> 01:58:44,800
Adams stack that they're a lot 
more fun. 

2169
01:58:44,800 --> 01:58:47,200
Yeah a lot more a lot more upset
is actually more fun. 

2170
01:58:47,500 --> 01:58:48,200
Yeah. 
Yeah. 

2171
01:58:48,300 --> 01:58:50,100
It's at least a Kind of a Funny 
screenshot. 

2172
01:58:50,200 --> 01:58:52,000
You take trait Lance just kind 
of like, sad. 

2173
01:58:52,000 --> 01:58:55,800
Like what are you doing, man? 
Give it up now. 

2174
01:58:55,800 --> 01:58:57,800
But I do. 
Yeah, I don't see the trade at 

2175
01:58:57,800 --> 01:58:59,200
some point. 
I did like I think in the 

2176
01:58:59,200 --> 01:59:02,800
superflex pre-draft stuff I was 
like, okay maybe there's some 

2177
01:59:02,800 --> 01:59:05,300
land straight scenarios, like 
maybe the Titans, maybe the 

2178
01:59:05,300 --> 01:59:08,500
Texans, the Texans were rumored 
to like be taking defensive 

2179
01:59:08,500 --> 01:59:09,800
players, only in the first 
round. 

2180
01:59:09,800 --> 01:59:12,200
I was like maybe there's some 
weird trade stuff with Trey 

2181
01:59:12,200 --> 01:59:15,800
Lancer, he hasn't out. 
Now, I'm just like, I do not 

2182
01:59:15,800 --> 01:59:18,100
like, who's he? 
It's kind of a big contract to a

2183
01:59:18,108 --> 01:59:21,100
number three overall pick like 
makes a decent amount of money, 

2184
01:59:21,100 --> 01:59:24,800
like, who's trading for that. 
Also, I mean, pretty did tear a 

2185
01:59:24,800 --> 01:59:28,000
ligament is elbow that 
Generally, we thought he was 

2186
01:59:28,000 --> 01:59:29,900
going to be out for like 18 
months. 

2187
01:59:30,200 --> 01:59:32,700
He's a seventh-round pick. 
Who's only shown like half a 

2188
01:59:32,708 --> 01:59:36,100
season of pretty impressive, 
but, you know, short-lived 

2189
01:59:36,100 --> 01:59:40,300
Excellence. 
You have Super Bowl Ambitions 

2190
01:59:40,300 --> 01:59:42,500
here, why wouldn't you keep 
Trail ants? 

2191
01:59:42,500 --> 01:59:46,200
Like why the the logical thing 
for the 49ers is to roll into 

2192
01:59:46,200 --> 01:59:50,200
the season with three cheap 
quarterbacks and just be like, 

2193
01:59:50,200 --> 01:59:52,500
we're going to we're going to 
get production out of position 

2194
01:59:52,500 --> 01:59:53,800
and we're going to win the Super
Bowl. 

2195
01:59:54,600 --> 01:59:58,800
I think it would be a little bit
like You know, probably 

2196
01:59:58,800 --> 02:00:01,400
undermines their goals to trade 
Trail ants this year. 

2197
02:00:01,500 --> 02:00:04,200
I think he's easier to move off 
of next year and then you have 

2198
02:00:04,200 --> 02:00:06,500
so much more information about 
who Purdy is after the year. 

2199
02:00:06,900 --> 02:00:10,200
So I think the thing with Lance 
is that, like, he could even 

2200
02:00:10,200 --> 02:00:16,500
hit, but I don't know that like 
if you get a couple really 

2201
02:00:16,500 --> 02:00:20,300
strong weeks late in the season 
from Lance, you know, you could 

2202
02:00:20,300 --> 02:00:22,400
definitely make the case that 
that's worth an eighteenth round

2203
02:00:22,400 --> 02:00:24,700
pick. 
But they have to be late, they 

2204
02:00:24,700 --> 02:00:27,600
have to be in the playoffs, and 
you have to get there without 

2205
02:00:27,600 --> 02:00:30,700
him, which is difficult because 
three quarterback builds are 

2206
02:00:30,708 --> 02:00:35,500
generally not as good as 
advancing as to quarterback, 

2207
02:00:35,500 --> 02:00:38,700
builds and Ike. 
If you have a, if you have a 

2208
02:00:38,700 --> 02:00:42,400
Josh Allen team, are you really 
how how much you even need the 

2209
02:00:42,400 --> 02:00:44,100
trail and Upside, you know what 
I mean? 

2210
02:00:44,100 --> 02:00:47,700
Like, so you just kind of hard 
to even know, like how he would 

2211
02:00:47,700 --> 02:00:53,500
help you without pretty, you 
know, re aggravating his elbow 

2212
02:00:53,500 --> 02:00:55,600
early in the season and Lance 
starts all year and then he's a 

2213
02:00:55,600 --> 02:00:58,600
smash. 
But, you know, you have I've, 

2214
02:00:58,700 --> 02:01:02,700
I'm very vocally out on, on same
howl for the most part, but I 

2215
02:01:02,708 --> 02:01:08,100
took Howell last night because I
took them at the 1812 and how 

2216
02:01:08,200 --> 02:01:11,700
has a chance to start all year, 
I don't think he will but 

2217
02:01:13,000 --> 02:01:15,900
Reading and I was reading some 
about Ron Rivera, Ron Rivera, I 

2218
02:01:15,907 --> 02:01:19,100
think is pretty in on how so 
it's if Ron Rivera doesn't get 

2219
02:01:19,100 --> 02:01:22,300
fired, they probably start howl.
All year is my is my thinking 

2220
02:01:22,300 --> 02:01:25,200
right now. 
I do think he's going to get 

2221
02:01:25,200 --> 02:01:30,200
fired so I don't love that bet. 
But 1812 Ryan Tannehill could 

2222
02:01:30,200 --> 02:01:32,300
start has a legitimate chance to
Start. 

2223
02:01:32,300 --> 02:01:33,600
All Season doesn't have the same
upside. 

2224
02:01:33,600 --> 02:01:36,800
Profile is Lance but you can get
him in the eighteenth round, 

2225
02:01:36,800 --> 02:01:38,500
Jimmy. 
Garoppolo what if his foots fine

2226
02:01:38,800 --> 02:01:41,900
doesn't have the same up, Sir 
profile at all but easily 

2227
02:01:41,900 --> 02:01:44,900
stackable. 
Get him in the 18 at the 1812. 

2228
02:01:45,100 --> 02:01:48,000
So, I don't know. 
I mean, you know, if Lance 

2229
02:01:48,000 --> 02:01:51,500
starts all year, comparing him 
to saying, you know, you could 

2230
02:01:51,500 --> 02:01:54,100
have gotten Jimmy garoppolo's 
and look super fucking stupid 

2231
02:01:54,200 --> 02:01:58,300
because he's Russian quarterback
but he's the odds of that 

2232
02:01:58,300 --> 02:02:00,500
actually materializes feel so 
low right now. 

2233
02:02:01,100 --> 02:02:05,300
Yeah, and I mean the, the fun 
thing with Lance is that if 

2234
02:02:05,300 --> 02:02:08,200
party gets hurt, they could 
throw same darn old in there so 

2235
02:02:08,200 --> 02:02:11,300
you have to be right, like it so
many times. 

2236
02:02:13,000 --> 02:02:15,100
Like it's so many things have to
happen. 

2237
02:02:15,100 --> 02:02:18,700
I think for a trail ants to be 
relevant and obviously the price

2238
02:02:18,700 --> 02:02:24,000
is low but like I don't think 
it's like you could, it's almost

2239
02:02:24,000 --> 02:02:27,800
like you're crafting a very 
specific scenario which I think 

2240
02:02:27,800 --> 02:02:33,900
you could do about like every 
player in the top. 300 right so 

2241
02:02:33,900 --> 02:02:38,800
I guess not that yeah maybe 
hyperbole but like is taking 

2242
02:02:38,800 --> 02:02:40,900
Trail and set them from taking 
Marcus Mariota. 

2243
02:02:42,300 --> 02:02:46,700
Now he is it isn't it's not 
really like the same--and very 

2244
02:02:46,700 --> 02:02:51,500
similar actually the only gift 
Lance does play like he's going 

2245
02:02:51,500 --> 02:02:54,400
to be so much better than 
Mariota but like it's, you know,

2246
02:02:54,400 --> 02:02:59,600
there's the I agree that there I
don't know man. 

2247
02:03:01,200 --> 02:03:04,100
The qv9 last year before he got,
benched, I don't know. 

2248
02:03:04,100 --> 02:03:05,600
But yeah. 
Now I hear you jack. 

2249
02:03:06,900 --> 02:03:10,100
Yeah, but II mean I agree. 
I agree with the point, like, I 

2250
02:03:10,100 --> 02:03:13,800
like it's, you're telling 
yourself such a story for Trey 

2251
02:03:13,800 --> 02:03:17,800
Lance to be anything resembling 
relevant. 

2252
02:03:19,100 --> 02:03:22,600
Yeah, by the way, almost and 
Arnold thing that's not just 

2253
02:03:22,600 --> 02:03:25,900
like, I think we kind of had a 
joke about Sam Donald over trade

2254
02:03:25,900 --> 02:03:28,400
Lance now that's being reported 
by it by Adam schefter. 

2255
02:03:28,800 --> 02:03:33,000
That's not just like a teepee 
chasing bet any day any more. 

2256
02:03:33,200 --> 02:03:37,600
That's I mean, he's chapter was 
like, kind of speculating but 

2257
02:03:37,600 --> 02:03:42,300
like, still, it's not like it 
should at least be taken to 

2258
02:03:42,900 --> 02:03:46,000
acknowledge that it's, it's a 
real competition between Donald 

2259
02:03:46,100 --> 02:03:47,700
and Lance. 
Even the pushback on the 

2260
02:03:47,700 --> 02:03:50,300
Rappaport report. 
My eyes are, as I recall was 

2261
02:03:50,300 --> 02:03:54,000
something like, hey, why would 
you, why would you discount tray

2262
02:03:54,000 --> 02:03:56,000
like that? 
Why would you rule out tray with

2263
02:03:56,000 --> 02:04:00,900
sort of the pushback? 
It wasn't That's insane, 

2264
02:04:01,100 --> 02:04:03,400
Donald's, the quarterback three 
trays the locked in quarterback 

2265
02:04:03,400 --> 02:04:06,500
to it was hey why would you why 
would you just assume that it's 

2266
02:04:06,500 --> 02:04:09,800
Donald but that's to me I'm like
well it could still beat Arnold 

2267
02:04:09,800 --> 02:04:11,700
though they just want to see how
it plays out. 

2268
02:04:11,700 --> 02:04:18,100
So yeah, we're projecting pretty
to miss around a game which I 

2269
02:04:18,100 --> 02:04:21,300
mean there's a chance. 
He doesn't miss any chance. 

2270
02:04:21,300 --> 02:04:22,400
He doesn't miss any time can 
see. 

2271
02:04:22,400 --> 02:04:24,500
Mrs. Like two games three games,
so we're just kind of like 

2272
02:04:24,500 --> 02:04:28,100
guessing unless a game and we 
have the backup split 50/50 

2273
02:04:28,100 --> 02:04:30,700
between Donald and Lance. 
I think like, Donald is very 

2274
02:04:30,700 --> 02:04:35,300
lives to be the qb2. 
So what would you say the 

2275
02:04:35,300 --> 02:04:37,700
difference is right now between 
Trail ants and Mason Rudolph? 

2276
02:04:39,000 --> 02:04:41,200
Okay, that's 2. 
Plus T took it too far? 

2277
02:04:43,300 --> 02:04:44,900
Go to back threes. 
Other words on my quarterback, 

2278
02:04:44,900 --> 02:04:48,400
freeze, what's the difference 
between a duck, duck, Hodges, 

2279
02:04:48,400 --> 02:04:51,000
and freelance. 
That's a quarterback for you 

2280
02:04:51,000 --> 02:04:56,800
because Man should be I think 
he's a better pick than Trail 

2281
02:04:56,800 --> 02:04:57,700
ants. 
No, no. 

2282
02:05:04,800 --> 02:05:06,800
Oh man. 
Okay, I tweeted about it. 

2283
02:05:06,800 --> 02:05:08,700
So let's cover this quickly, I'm
sorry. 

2284
02:05:08,700 --> 02:05:11,000
Sorry to keep you. 
So long Jack Tyree kill. 

2285
02:05:11,000 --> 02:05:13,800
I thought this would be more of 
a teepee movement with the news 

2286
02:05:13,800 --> 02:05:17,000
of him like slapping somebody on
the boat or whatever the hell 

2287
02:05:17,000 --> 02:05:19,600
that weird report was. 
But so this is just been a thing

2288
02:05:19,600 --> 02:05:21,300
for me. 
When I'm on the clock at pick 

2289
02:05:21,300 --> 02:05:25,200
four or five this weekend. 
I'm just taking like CMC and cup

2290
02:05:25,300 --> 02:05:27,900
over Tyreke every time now 
because I'm like, it isn't as 

2291
02:05:27,900 --> 02:05:30,500
ATP going to move down or like, 
isn't there some two-game 

2292
02:05:30,500 --> 02:05:32,900
suspension risk or something? 
There I'm curious. 

2293
02:05:32,900 --> 02:05:36,100
If you guys are baking any like 
sort of off the field risk for 

2294
02:05:36,100 --> 02:05:41,600
Tyreke with this report we have 
not sorry I was just going to 

2295
02:05:41,608 --> 02:05:46,600
say we have now right now but 
we're like Not sure what to do 

2296
02:05:46,600 --> 02:05:50,200
really, which maybe is an 
argument in favor of making it 

2297
02:05:50,200 --> 02:05:53,700
at least some risk. 
But like we're just kind of like

2298
02:05:53,700 --> 02:05:57,400
watching and hoping we get more 
info at this point in terms of 

2299
02:05:57,400 --> 02:05:59,900
like how we're treating the 
projections side of it. 

2300
02:06:01,300 --> 02:06:06,500
Pat thoughts. 
Yeah, my thing is that kind of 

2301
02:06:07,000 --> 02:06:11,100
to be honest I like up more than
he'll So and I've had I've kind 

2302
02:06:11,100 --> 02:06:13,200
of flipped them around in the 
rankings at times because it's 

2303
02:06:13,200 --> 02:06:19,400
like Hill has been so steadily 
above cop and I'm like, you 

2304
02:06:19,400 --> 02:06:22,800
know, I don't want people not to
have any Hill and so it's like, 

2305
02:06:23,100 --> 02:06:27,000
but I I'm more, I'm more just 
taking cup, like I've been 

2306
02:06:27,000 --> 02:06:31,000
taking cup over Hill enough to 
where I'm pretty overwhelmed 

2307
02:06:31,000 --> 02:06:32,300
Wake up in a little under Way 
hill. 

2308
02:06:32,800 --> 02:06:35,400
And so to me it was pretty 
simple to just go in and say, no

2309
02:06:35,400 --> 02:06:39,700
cups, 3, you know, cup is the 
better pick right now like cup 

2310
02:06:39,700 --> 02:06:42,400
didn't slap someone on a boat 
and I don't know what the Yeah, 

2311
02:06:42,400 --> 02:06:45,700
seriousness of, but it is but 
kinda already liked, cut more. 

2312
02:06:45,700 --> 02:06:47,600
And I was, I was like, 
capitulating to the market a 

2313
02:06:47,608 --> 02:06:50,200
little bit, which I think it's a
totally fine thing to do when 

2314
02:06:50,208 --> 02:06:52,700
we're talking about Hyper Elite 
players like this. 

2315
02:06:53,200 --> 02:06:55,700
But what you want exposure 
generally to all of them. 

2316
02:06:56,800 --> 02:06:59,300
But yeah, at this point outside 
McCaffrey Overhill to because 

2317
02:06:59,300 --> 02:07:01,600
it's just like why not? 
Why not like McCaffrey's a great

2318
02:07:01,600 --> 02:07:08,600
pick to what I haven't done. 
Yet is bump up waddle but I 

2319
02:07:08,600 --> 02:07:12,500
think that's the next thing I 
might do depending on on what we

2320
02:07:12,500 --> 02:07:15,100
start to hear about this. 
Have you guys bumped up w a 

2321
02:07:15,108 --> 02:07:17,600
little you're just, you're just 
kind of holding steady for now 

2322
02:07:17,600 --> 02:07:21,200
Jack. 
You're muted. 

2323
02:07:22,600 --> 02:07:27,400
So, we haven't changed anything,
but we're pretty uncertain. 

2324
02:07:27,400 --> 02:07:31,500
So, may I like after this show, 
I'm probably gonna go back and, 

2325
02:07:31,500 --> 02:07:34,300
like, the heat Source I can be 
like, Korean had some points 

2326
02:07:34,300 --> 02:07:36,400
about like dropping Tyreke and 
bring a bottle. 

2327
02:07:36,400 --> 02:07:37,900
Like, should we should we do 
this? 

2328
02:07:37,900 --> 02:07:39,200
Like, where we don't really 
know? 

2329
02:07:39,900 --> 02:07:42,800
Exactly. 
I haven't, I think I might move 

2330
02:07:42,800 --> 02:07:47,700
up waddle, like one spot, and I,
and that would be the first time

2331
02:07:47,700 --> 02:07:50,800
I've raised him, so I'm not, but
yeah, but he'll to me, it's like

2332
02:07:50,800 --> 02:07:53,700
it's so flat from 225 is so 
flat. 

2333
02:07:53,700 --> 02:07:55,900
Why wouldn't I just bump Hill 
down to the end of the tear? 

2334
02:07:56,900 --> 02:07:59,600
Yeah. 
Yeah, that's fair and drag after

2335
02:07:59,600 --> 02:08:01,500
you slack Leone about grants 
once. 

2336
02:08:01,500 --> 02:08:04,600
Make sure you slack them about 
my mischievous key points as 

2337
02:08:04,600 --> 02:08:06,100
well. 
A lot of our Asylum. 

2338
02:08:06,300 --> 02:08:07,600
Yeah, I'm sure he's gonna wanna 
know. 

2339
02:08:08,300 --> 02:08:11,100
You guys should probably bump 
him from like 450 to 380. 

2340
02:08:11,900 --> 02:08:12,500
Yeah. 
Yeah. 

2341
02:08:15,000 --> 02:08:16,000
Now that makes sense. 
And yeah. 

2342
02:08:16,000 --> 02:08:18,500
It's just like, I don't know 
when you're, when you're picking

2343
02:08:18,500 --> 02:08:22,900
between these amazing players 
and not even maybe go as far and

2344
02:08:22,900 --> 02:08:24,500
this is where I get if you 
disagree. 

2345
02:08:24,500 --> 02:08:28,600
But I even get if you want to 
take AJ Brown Diggs Kelsey over 

2346
02:08:28,600 --> 02:08:31,800
Tyreke right now. 
I don't completely disagree with

2347
02:08:31,800 --> 02:08:35,300
it just because I think there's 
a chance that like we get more 

2348
02:08:35,500 --> 02:08:39,600
bad news in this and even if he 
doesn't get suspended his price 

2349
02:08:39,700 --> 02:08:43,500
will fall. 
So yeah, I'm in like 

2350
02:08:43,500 --> 02:08:45,700
wait-and-see approach as well. 
I'm not completely panicking. 

2351
02:08:45,700 --> 02:08:47,000
I'm sorry. 
Where do you think that would? 

2352
02:08:47,800 --> 02:08:50,700
If there was speculation? 
If the market started to be 

2353
02:08:50,700 --> 02:08:52,300
nervous, where do you think he 
would settle? 

2354
02:08:54,800 --> 02:08:58,700
Like if there wasn't anything 
like concretely, that's like a 

2355
02:08:58,700 --> 02:09:00,400
Camaro situation from last year,
right? 

2356
02:09:00,400 --> 02:09:07,300
Like camara's, you know was 
never like a suspension was well

2357
02:09:07,300 --> 02:09:09,000
I don't know that we'll ever get
to the point where like a 

2358
02:09:09,000 --> 02:09:12,000
suspension looks as likely as it
did for Camaro, you know? 

2359
02:09:12,000 --> 02:09:15,000
Yeah, let's say the first part 
of this, the first part of like,

2360
02:09:15,000 --> 02:09:17,200
oh this we should start taking 
this incident. 

2361
02:09:17,900 --> 02:09:20,400
Somewhat seriously, like do you 
think you could fall? 

2362
02:09:22,600 --> 02:09:26,500
To the 111. 
Yeah, that's what I was going to

2363
02:09:26,508 --> 02:09:28,700
say. 
Like, we're CD and Garrett 

2364
02:09:28,700 --> 02:09:31,500
Wilson Devonte are going right. 
I mean, because it's still hard 

2365
02:09:31,500 --> 02:09:34,600
not to click in there, right? 
I mean, yeah, I feel like it 

2366
02:09:34,600 --> 02:09:38,600
depends on how long the 
suspension like is rumored to 

2367
02:09:38,600 --> 02:09:41,200
because for Camaros like six 
games and I think of Tyreke get 

2368
02:09:41,200 --> 02:09:43,700
six games. 
Like he's gonna fall, a pretty 

2369
02:09:43,700 --> 02:09:45,700
decent amount, but I feel like 
if it's two games, like that's 

2370
02:09:45,700 --> 02:09:49,900
almost a slap on the wrist. 
Where would where would you take

2371
02:09:49,900 --> 02:09:52,000
him? 
If it was six games purely 

2372
02:09:52,000 --> 02:09:53,200
hypothetical, we don't know 
anything. 

2373
02:09:57,000 --> 02:10:01,700
Third round, Maybe. 
That's spicy but that kind of 

2374
02:10:01,700 --> 02:10:05,500
makes sense because what we were
taking d-hop when he had a 

2375
02:10:05,508 --> 02:10:09,800
six-game suspension in what like
the sixth seventh round last 

2376
02:10:09,800 --> 02:10:13,000
year? 
Yeah, so Tyree kill probably 

2377
02:10:13,000 --> 02:10:16,500
bump up two or three rounds from
that full season at e Hagins or 

2378
02:10:17,200 --> 02:10:21,500
minus 6 from Hill. 
Give me hell yeah. 

2379
02:10:21,500 --> 02:10:23,600
I think I'm, I'm the biggest T. 
Higgins. 

2380
02:10:23,600 --> 02:10:25,800
Bear in the market. 
So you probably don't want my 

2381
02:10:25,800 --> 02:10:32,000
tea again Stakes. 
I might be Jack Higgins there. 

2382
02:10:32,300 --> 02:10:34,300
Yeah, I think I'm actually back 
to Higgins more. 

2383
02:10:34,300 --> 02:10:35,500
I think about it, but it's 
closed. 

2384
02:10:35,500 --> 02:10:37,200
Like that's probably about 
worry, baby. 

2385
02:10:37,600 --> 02:10:39,400
So that's the end of the second 
basically, right now. 

2386
02:10:41,900 --> 02:10:45,800
Yeah. 
I don't know. 

2387
02:10:45,900 --> 02:10:47,300
Anyways, we'll keep our eye on 
that. 

2388
02:10:47,900 --> 02:10:50,800
It's been two hours, a little 
bit over, two hours. 

2389
02:10:51,300 --> 02:10:55,100
Let's get into our favorite ATP 
values. 

2390
02:10:55,100 --> 02:10:58,600
Jack, we do this on on every 
show, we have been kind of 

2391
02:10:58,600 --> 02:11:03,100
playing a game or a try, not 
just like the best pics but the 

2392
02:11:03,100 --> 02:11:07,000
players we think are going to 
rise the most by August like by 

2393
02:11:07,000 --> 02:11:09,800
a percentage of ATP. 
So like if you picked Davante 

2394
02:11:09,800 --> 02:11:13,300
Adams and he soared the pick-6, 
that would be like a huge rise 

2395
02:11:13,300 --> 02:11:16,800
or you could pick someone late. 
He thinks going to soar a bunch 

2396
02:11:16,800 --> 02:11:20,400
as well. 
So do you have anybody that you 

2397
02:11:20,400 --> 02:11:22,300
think is going to be a great 
Closing? 

2398
02:11:22,300 --> 02:11:24,500
One value? 
If you're taking them today on 

2399
02:11:24,500 --> 02:11:29,000
June 26th? 
Yeah, I think I think Watson is 

2400
02:11:29,000 --> 02:11:31,100
a pretty good value at 
quarterback right now with how 

2401
02:11:31,100 --> 02:11:35,400
much quarterback ATP is up this 
year and rightfully so is the 

2402
02:11:35,800 --> 02:11:37,600
elite guys just smash everyone 
else. 

2403
02:11:37,600 --> 02:11:43,000
But Watson has you know it's 
been two years but he's had 

2404
02:11:43,600 --> 02:11:47,700
years that are Not completely to
the level of like a hurts Josh 

2405
02:11:47,700 --> 02:11:50,800
Alan. 
But like definitely in that top 

2406
02:11:51,400 --> 02:11:55,200
three or four quarterback range 
and you can get them right now 

2407
02:11:55,200 --> 02:11:58,100
at qb9, and obviously, there's a
ride range of outcomes, coming 

2408
02:11:58,100 --> 02:12:01,900
off missing two years and not 
playing all that well, at the 

2409
02:12:01,900 --> 02:12:05,900
end of last year. 
But, I mean, that level of 

2410
02:12:05,900 --> 02:12:08,900
upside, I think is completely 
unmatched by pretty much 

2411
02:12:08,900 --> 02:12:11,400
everyone else. 
And I think they're going to 

2412
02:12:11,407 --> 02:12:14,800
throw a little bit more this 
year to now, that they have. 

2413
02:12:15,000 --> 02:12:19,100
Have an elite quarterback or 
someone that they hope is Elite.

2414
02:12:19,100 --> 02:12:23,100
At least given what they gave up
farming, what they pay them and 

2415
02:12:23,100 --> 02:12:26,200
now that they I mean it's looks 
like it's probably just tub at 

2416
02:12:26,200 --> 02:12:30,000
this point because they have 
thrown for, but I don't think 

2417
02:12:30,000 --> 02:12:32,200
he's going to be as Korean hunt 
level involvement. 

2418
02:12:32,200 --> 02:12:35,400
So they don't have the same 
running back Duo and they have a

2419
02:12:35,400 --> 02:12:36,800
significant upgrade at 
quarterback. 

2420
02:12:36,800 --> 02:12:38,600
Like I think they're going to 
throw more this year. 

2421
02:12:39,600 --> 02:12:44,300
So I think Watson is probably my
single favorite bad on the board

2422
02:12:44,300 --> 02:12:45,800
right now. 
Nice. 

2423
02:12:46,700 --> 02:12:50,300
It's guess I like it. 
Pat you've done for yet? 

2424
02:12:50,500 --> 02:12:53,800
I'm assuming we have let me 
check my list. 

2425
02:12:55,500 --> 02:12:59,500
I feel like someone did and I 
just didn't write it down but I 

2426
02:12:59,500 --> 02:13:01,600
don't have a room that I don't 
have it written down. 

2427
02:13:03,100 --> 02:13:05,900
Okay, that is only hurting if 
you know, pretty. 

2428
02:13:05,900 --> 02:13:09,200
Yeah. 
All right, I'm doing pretty. 

2429
02:13:10,900 --> 02:13:16,300
He's so like pick one eighty, 
I've taken him, I've done the 

2430
02:13:16,300 --> 02:13:19,400
stacks and then I take him at 
the back half of the board. 

2431
02:13:19,400 --> 02:13:24,900
I'll reach like a full 24 picks 
at ATP because I'm like, I 

2432
02:13:24,900 --> 02:13:28,600
already did that, I did the 
stack and I I've been on record 

2433
02:13:28,600 --> 02:13:30,300
saying, I don't really think you
should be reaching quarterbacks 

2434
02:13:30,300 --> 02:13:32,400
complete Stacks, but I do feel a
little bit different. 

2435
02:13:32,500 --> 02:13:37,000
A about it when it's if you've 
done like a triple stack, and in

2436
02:13:37,000 --> 02:13:40,400
this case, it might be like, you
know, two of the receivers plus 

2437
02:13:40,400 --> 02:13:44,300
Elijah Mitchell calling that a 
triple sec and then maybe like, 

2438
02:13:45,000 --> 02:13:47,500
you know, a Datsun or whatever 
or whoever you have coming back 

2439
02:13:47,500 --> 02:13:52,200
McLaren. 
There's no one else, right? 

2440
02:13:52,200 --> 02:13:55,100
It's like your now to the point 
where quarterbacks really drying

2441
02:13:55,100 --> 02:13:57,900
up. 
So when in those late rounds, 

2442
02:13:57,900 --> 02:14:00,600
sometimes I'll just reach and 
complete it plus. 

2443
02:14:00,700 --> 02:14:02,400
I think that's where he's going 
to move up. 

2444
02:14:02,800 --> 02:14:07,500
I think he's going to move up to
that a full, 24 picks and settle

2445
02:14:07,500 --> 02:14:10,100
at the same turn. 
But one spot above because it 

2446
02:14:10,100 --> 02:14:12,300
just kind of makes too much 
sense with where debose going. 

2447
02:14:14,000 --> 02:14:17,600
And, you know, you can just kind
of easily build around him. 

2448
02:14:18,300 --> 02:14:20,900
There you are. 
You've used to fall a little bit

2449
02:14:20,900 --> 02:14:23,000
to that side of board. 
He doesn't, but kid'll kills 

2450
02:14:23,000 --> 02:14:26,500
right there too, so you can 
easily go Debo Kettle and lock 

2451
02:14:26,500 --> 02:14:29,300
up, pretty at that turn. 
I like that. 

2452
02:14:29,300 --> 02:14:31,700
And I didn't have time to show 
this week but the, the San 

2453
02:14:31,700 --> 02:14:33,400
Francisco Stanley. 
Tack the double stack. 

2454
02:14:33,400 --> 02:14:36,100
Price always shows up is 
actually one of the cheaper ones

2455
02:14:36,100 --> 02:14:38,600
just because pretty so cheap and
all the pass catchers are pretty

2456
02:14:38,600 --> 02:14:41,300
expensive. 
So I like that of being able to 

2457
02:14:41,600 --> 02:14:43,900
bring along a late-round 
quarterback with some of the the

2458
02:14:43,900 --> 02:14:46,500
skill players. 
You take, you take early with 

2459
02:14:46,500 --> 02:14:49,900
pretty and I'm talking about the
13/14 turn for the record. 

2460
02:14:51,200 --> 02:14:51,900
Oh God. 
Yeah. 

2461
02:14:52,000 --> 02:14:56,500
So to add quickly, I guess I 
focused on why I like Watson as 

2462
02:14:56,500 --> 02:15:00,200
opposed to maybe the clv 
argument but I think you know in

2463
02:15:00,200 --> 02:15:02,700
training camp rolls around and 
everyone looks fantastic. 

2464
02:15:03,000 --> 02:15:06,400
If we get those positive Camp 
reports on Watson and people 

2465
02:15:06,400 --> 02:15:09,700
start thinking like what if 
DeShaun Watson is back to the 

2466
02:15:09,700 --> 02:15:14,200
guy, he was three years ago. 
I think you could really see the

2467
02:15:14,200 --> 02:15:20,100
ATP start to rise because the 
last year is right for this is, 

2468
02:15:20,100 --> 02:15:23,200
you know, a rightful. 
Reason but that's why he's going

2469
02:15:23,200 --> 02:15:27,000
as late as he is. 
So if we get those positive Camp

2470
02:15:27,000 --> 02:15:29,500
reports that DeShaun Watson 
looks like the W and he wasn't 

2471
02:15:29,500 --> 02:15:32,400
2019 2020. 
And then people start connecting

2472
02:15:32,400 --> 02:15:36,400
the dots like in 2019 2020. 
Like his performance would have 

2473
02:15:36,400 --> 02:15:39,100
been the qb3 last year, or two 
before whatever. 

2474
02:15:39,700 --> 02:15:41,700
And then you could really see 
him, see him, start the rise 

2475
02:15:41,700 --> 02:15:45,300
there? 
Well, yeah, like sometimes the 

2476
02:15:45,300 --> 02:15:49,000
biggest hits of really obvious 
in retrospect and Watson. 

2477
02:15:49,000 --> 02:15:51,600
I think will look extremely 
obvious and Retrospective, he 

2478
02:15:51,600 --> 02:15:53,800
hits it. 
You know, in an environment 

2479
02:15:53,800 --> 02:15:57,400
where we're chasing up huge 
quarterback Seasons from last 

2480
02:15:57,400 --> 02:15:59,800
year into the early third round 
into the second round to start 

2481
02:15:59,800 --> 02:16:02,500
BBM. 
If you can get DeShaun Watson in

2482
02:16:02,500 --> 02:16:06,500
the seventh round, even the 
sixth round and he's DeShaun 

2483
02:16:06,500 --> 02:16:08,800
Watson. 
Again, I mean, it's just such a 

2484
02:16:09,100 --> 02:16:11,600
like it's the perfect ATP 
environment to hit on a DeShaun 

2485
02:16:11,600 --> 02:16:17,100
Watson returning to form and you
know, then it's also like even 

2486
02:16:18,000 --> 02:16:21,700
It would even be a good price 
last year, you know, if he were 

2487
02:16:21,700 --> 02:16:24,200
to hit. 
So you just put the hit will be 

2488
02:16:24,300 --> 02:16:26,500
will be outsized because of how 
expensive the other quarterbacks

2489
02:16:26,500 --> 02:16:28,900
are this year. 
Yeah, it's funny. 

2490
02:16:28,900 --> 02:16:30,900
You mentioned that I've had that
thought to pad of just like how 

2491
02:16:30,900 --> 02:16:33,000
all these little look, but I 
almost almost feel like it's 

2492
02:16:33,000 --> 02:16:36,000
gonna look obvious, either way. 
Like if he sucks is going to be 

2493
02:16:36,000 --> 02:16:38,799
like, oh the guy who was out of 
the league for two years and 

2494
02:16:38,799 --> 02:16:39,799
sucked. 
Last year sucked. 

2495
02:16:39,799 --> 02:16:42,900
Again like what a shocker. 
But I agree with you if he looks

2496
02:16:42,900 --> 02:16:43,799
good. 
It's like such. 

2497
02:16:44,299 --> 02:16:47,100
Yeah, yeah, I don't like like 
I'm just saying that people are 

2498
02:16:47,100 --> 02:16:50,200
going to do the Prospective 
analysis, like they are either 

2499
02:16:50,200 --> 02:16:53,500
either way but I agree with you,
it's a very clean case. 

2500
02:16:53,500 --> 02:16:56,600
Like you also look at some of 
his games last year where he, 

2501
02:16:56,600 --> 02:16:59,500
you know, sucked and there were 
these crazy weather games where 

2502
02:17:00,100 --> 02:17:02,400
I don't know, Jacoby presents, 
not doing better than Jean 

2503
02:17:02,400 --> 02:17:05,200
Watson those games. 
I don't think so. 

2504
02:17:05,299 --> 02:17:08,100
Anyways, someone I think I'm 
like, in my head. 

2505
02:17:08,100 --> 02:17:10,500
I'm like, I'm overweight Watson 
but I'm actually not. 

2506
02:17:10,700 --> 02:17:17,000
And so I am glad you mention of 
Jack and to fix that, So mine 

2507
02:17:17,400 --> 02:17:22,600
for this week don't think it's 
been done is it's pretty simple.

2508
02:17:22,600 --> 02:17:25,600
Jacoby and Meyers pick 120 right
now. 

2509
02:17:25,600 --> 02:17:29,600
I think he's like by far of the 
wide receivers in that range. 

2510
02:17:29,799 --> 02:17:33,299
Like he's got two good things 
going for him out of the water 

2511
02:17:33,299 --> 02:17:35,000
receivers in that range. 
As a reminder, he's going 

2512
02:17:35,000 --> 02:17:40,400
around, guys like Darnell muy 
Mooney, Romeo dubs, Zeta-Jones 

2513
02:17:40,400 --> 02:17:43,299
Sky, more Odell Beckham, out of 
all those guys. 

2514
02:17:43,600 --> 02:17:47,400
A, I think Myers is just More 
talented wide receiver than any 

2515
02:17:47,400 --> 02:17:50,400
of those players and be. 
I think he's more likely to have

2516
02:17:50,400 --> 02:17:54,000
like a 90% route rate playing 
into wide receiver sets, then 

2517
02:17:54,000 --> 02:17:56,000
all those players. 
I think in our heads we think of

2518
02:17:56,008 --> 02:17:59,000
Myers is this like slot only 
player but he actually played on

2519
02:17:59,000 --> 02:18:01,900
the outside quite a bit. 
Last year in New England, Las 

2520
02:18:01,900 --> 02:18:04,700
Vegas, paid him a ton of money. 
I don't think the putting Hunter

2521
02:18:04,700 --> 02:18:08,000
Renfro on the outside instead of
they might try think he's, which

2522
02:18:08,000 --> 02:18:09,700
would be one way that you really
went on this. 

2523
02:18:10,100 --> 02:18:11,900
He yeah, exactly. 
That's another one. 

2524
02:18:12,299 --> 02:18:15,799
I just think he's too talented 
of water Steve. 

2525
02:18:16,000 --> 02:18:18,500
Be going at, pick 120, I 
generally see. 

2526
02:18:18,500 --> 02:18:21,900
His range is sort of a wide 
receiver DeadZone range, but I 

2527
02:18:21,900 --> 02:18:25,200
really do like Myers there at 
pick 120. 

2528
02:18:25,200 --> 02:18:27,700
Obviously, he doesn't have the 
upside of, you know, becoming a 

2529
02:18:27,700 --> 02:18:30,799
huge Alpha Target earner with 
Davante Adams there. 

2530
02:18:30,799 --> 02:18:34,400
But, you know, I think a lot of 
this lost biggest fund, is kind 

2531
02:18:34,400 --> 02:18:38,500
of based on this Jimmy Garoppolo
report, which I think is not 

2532
02:18:38,500 --> 02:18:41,200
really news, and it was made out
to be big news, because this 

2533
02:18:41,200 --> 02:18:43,400
Clause is contract. 
I'm kind of fading all of that 

2534
02:18:43,400 --> 02:18:45,700
noise. 
I just think I want. 

2535
02:18:45,900 --> 02:18:47,400
A good wide receiver. 
Who's going to play into wide 

2536
02:18:47,400 --> 02:18:49,799
receiver sets on a passing 
offense? 

2537
02:18:49,799 --> 02:18:52,400
That should be competent in my 
opinion. 

2538
02:18:52,400 --> 02:18:55,299
So, I like Myers quite a bit and
think, you know, if some of the 

2539
02:18:55,299 --> 02:18:59,700
Jimmy Garoppolo fears go away, 
if Renfro gets treated Etc, he 

2540
02:18:59,700 --> 02:19:02,299
could be a pretty big Riser and 
go up to, you know, the 

2541
02:19:02,299 --> 02:19:03,900
Courtland Sutton Michael Thomas 
range. 

2542
02:19:03,900 --> 02:19:06,600
I think that's in his range of 
outcomes from a clothing line 

2543
02:19:06,600 --> 02:19:09,200
value perspective. 
I think that's probably where it

2544
02:19:09,200 --> 02:19:11,500
should be. 
I like him to me, it's like, why

2545
02:19:11,500 --> 02:19:13,700
would you ever take Juju when 
you can get to go to Mars? 

2546
02:19:14,700 --> 02:19:18,799
Yeah. 
Yeah, that's fair. 

2547
02:19:19,500 --> 02:19:23,200
Alright everybody, thanks for 
joining us today. 

2548
02:19:23,600 --> 02:19:25,400
Really appreciate everybody in 
the chat. 

2549
02:19:25,900 --> 02:19:29,700
We saw all those messages just 
had to pick, Jack's brain today.

2550
02:19:29,700 --> 02:19:32,400
So sorry for not getting to all 
the questions, but really 

2551
02:19:32,400 --> 02:19:36,400
appreciate everyone coming out 
and joining us today as a fun 

2552
02:19:36,799 --> 02:19:40,200
fun discussion Jack, anything 
you want to tease that's in the 

2553
02:19:40,200 --> 02:19:42,400
works. 
Establish the run over the next 

2554
02:19:42,400 --> 02:19:46,299
couple weeks, nothing specific. 
But, you know, we'll have have a

2555
02:19:46,307 --> 02:19:48,600
lot of basketball content over 
the next couple months. 

2556
02:19:48,600 --> 02:19:51,200
Some wedding related content if 
that's your thing too. 

2557
02:19:51,200 --> 02:19:55,400
So, just just a lot of stuff 
that I'm pretty excited about. 

2558
02:19:55,400 --> 02:19:57,900
But, yeah, thank you guys for 
having me on. 

2559
02:19:57,900 --> 02:20:02,200
This was fun. 
Yeah, of course, at what about 

2560
02:20:02,200 --> 02:20:03,900
you? 
What's going on at legendary 

2561
02:20:03,900 --> 02:20:05,900
outside? 
Just had an article out this 

2562
02:20:05,900 --> 02:20:08,600
morning. 
Looking at success rate up talks

2563
02:20:08,600 --> 02:20:11,300
for a few weeks about how I've 
been diving into Ethel next-gen 

2564
02:20:11,300 --> 02:20:15,000
success rate metric. 
And looking at some of the right

2565
02:20:15,000 --> 02:20:18,000
of X in this article who 
performed very well on large, 

2566
02:20:18,000 --> 02:20:21,400
sample sizes in that metric last
year, including some guys who I 

2567
02:20:21,408 --> 02:20:25,600
think, people are overlooking a 
bit Brian Robinson. 

2568
02:20:25,700 --> 02:20:29,500
Get some love in there, he's 
treated like he's was absolutely

2569
02:20:29,500 --> 02:20:30,900
horrible. 
Sure did have three point, nine 

2570
02:20:30,900 --> 02:20:33,200
yards per carry but Gibson had 
three point. 

2571
02:20:33,200 --> 02:20:35,500
Seven yards per carry and faced 
eight men in the box of the way,

2572
02:20:35,500 --> 02:20:40,900
less way lower rate. 
So Brian Robinson get some love,

2573
02:20:40,900 --> 02:20:46,100
Travis etn, get some love few 
other guys, talking through the 

2574
02:20:46,300 --> 02:20:47,700
kind of the stars in that 
metric. 

2575
02:20:47,700 --> 02:20:52,600
Going to talk through some of 
the red flags that pop up for 

2576
02:20:52,600 --> 02:20:55,400
running backs with big workloads
last year there and that metric 

2577
02:20:55,400 --> 02:20:58,100
in part 2 of the article series 
that I'm doing on this. 

2578
02:20:58,100 --> 02:21:01,800
And then I'll have some of the 
be like small sample size guys, 

2579
02:21:01,800 --> 02:21:04,600
who, you know, will try to parse
whether or not, we should pay 

2580
02:21:04,600 --> 02:21:07,400
attention to what they, what 
they did last year, all that 

2581
02:21:07,400 --> 02:21:09,500
much. 
Awesome. 

2582
02:21:09,500 --> 02:21:12,400
Looking forward to checking that
out yet. 

2583
02:21:12,400 --> 02:21:15,500
Go check out legendary upside 
obviously go check out ETR to 

2584
02:21:15,500 --> 02:21:21,000
see see Jack's articles and we 
will be back next Monday. 

2585
02:21:21,800 --> 02:21:23,600
See you guys all next week.