All right guys, It's a Wonderful Time of the Year, playoff
basketball season, playoff contests are among us.
And, you know, not all of us were fortunate enough to win two
million dollars. Some of us still have to grind
our cocks off to win five hundred thousand dollars, it
just so happens that one of those People grind their cocks
off to it. 500,000 is also the guy who won two billion dollars,
but I digress tonight. We reveal the Boomer off,
though. What are the Boomers rolling out
on FF PC? We will lay the groundwork for
the contest. Get you guys ready to win that
500k. Let's do it.
Pat fryer homos. Anita hand job.
All right, bring it out. All the big guns tonight.
We got Ben, Gretch, patka rain, we got the statue, acing, guys,
Draco and Sam. And we have the Boomer opto
revealer himself. Hassan, how are you guys doing?
Do you want to hear about laughing behind the cold?
Open? What was, I still don't?
Why wasn't I muted? I don't know.
But it was great. It was perhaps actually been a
stream, yard shift in the past, like, six months that your guys
is noise has bled through. To my cold open.
So, thank you for not saying anything ridiculous.
During, well, you tell us very typical but real quick.
Hassan how, how long have you been in the lab?
We will, in a little bit reveal? The Boomer opto.
I just want to know kind of like your process.
Your preparation. Have you been slaving over this?
Yeah, we've been in the lab for about a month, right?
So the process is pretty, it's pretty arduous.
So you have to you have to understand boomers are old.
They just sort of not all there mentally, right?
Is a lot of cognitive decline that you need to inhibit on
yourself if you force it on yourself.
So you're looking mighty. Yeah.
First training camp. Like, you're trying to get in
worse shape? Yeah.
You you have to be like bounding beers.
You just if you're not waking up every day, just hungover.
You just, not gonna get there, man.
You're not getting any animals no fruit.
Like, yeah, it's just an obscure be impossible.
You got to have Like a steady diet of chicken chicken fried
steak and like, 80 Miller High Life.
All right, I think are on the menu.
It says ler. So so for hard.
Yeah, Draco Sam. How are you guys doing?
Of course, for those of you don't know, our stat chasing
Brethren doing, great work on the Channel, all season long
Sam. You know, we were all pulling
for you to win, best Ball Mania three socks that someone else
want it. You had two bullets and your
Advanced rates to the semis and the This was some of the most
batshit crazy stuff I've ever seen.
Yeah, I really ran hot there for a second.
I had nine teams in the Siamese and then and then, two in the
finals. But the amount of
congratulations I've gotten over the last week for coming 176.
Then 239th place and BBM for is and be Beyond three has really
been amazing. So I want to thank the community
for really recognizing that counts lab would get the support
of community right now. It's a pretty flat plant palette
strike that's very it's very That I can't quite crunch the
numbers on it, but I got close to the two million that patent
editors. Yeah.
Very very close to that Draco. You had a couple sweats in the
ffp. See you were going to defend
your crown in the the best ball tournament correct.
Yeah so I got two teams to final really happy to do that.
So I'm going to have they were carrying some injuries for sure
but still did it the opening rounds for both of them.
Our sake for opening round for about it on went really well.
So, I was hot, what? I guess was hoping and one of
those teams did have their calories that what that
immediately and happy to. I guess, happy to finish 20 in
Total Defense. It's like, literally a safe set
a set of steak knives, put 20, that a nice set of steak knives.
Yeah. That's true.
It's very, very nice set of statements.
But yeah, well, I I was dreaming.
It's and it's one of those things where because that
everything worked out so perfectly last year.
Like I was almost primed. Okay, it's going to happen again
when like I have to like I don't talk myself down, know you got
very lucky last year. Like that's not well that's like
only only go bills get to win back to back you know that's on
the that's all right. But yeah that's John.
Comparing things and stuff like that.
So I was fun. Yeah.
And again, like just to reframe it.
I mean both of you guys to have two bullets in those main
contest finals is is absurd speaks to how well you guys
drafted your fantasy teams and how sharp you guys are so
congratulations to both of you. Ben Gretch.
It's a beautiful time of the year.
Are you in the lab? Are you, are you ready for
Playoff Challenge week? I wouldn't say I'm totally in
the lab. I'm ready?
We didn't do the first. Look, what?
Davis, haven't looked through Pat's ownership projections yet.
I think this episode is where I'm going to get, right?
This is the moment, you know, I want to, I want to see this on
the ship. This is the lab.
You might want to think through it.
This is the lap I want to, in real time digest, some of these
team breakdowns, positional breakdowns.
There's obviously so many ways to think about this contest.
It's so much freaking fun. It's a very unique contest and
we love it around here. Pat can you?
You give for people who maybe aren't initiated, I'm going to
see him. A lot of our audience has played
this contest over the years, we generally do multiple shows
every year, we've been playing it for.
I don't know, five, six, seven plus years.
But can you give a tldr kind of overview on what this contest
is? Because it's both on the
purpose, very simple. And yet, you can go down the
rabbit hole and spend hours and hours on it.
Yeah. This I think is a very fun
contest because the rules are super simple.
Which means, Kind of the strategy elements are really
about the game theory. Not understand understand the
concept itself, which is very simple, but understanding how
everyone else is going to play the contest.
And that's where you can go down the rabbit hole but the rules of
the contest are that you're filling out an expanded ffp, see
lineup. So you've got quarterback to
running back to wide receiver tight end, kicker defense for
flexes not to with the normal format because we have we have
to cover all these playoff teams that still leaves.
Two teams that you are not selecting in the playoffs.
What the way we talk about these is that you essentially are
selecting, those teams, you're selecting them, as your fate,
your first fade and your second fade.
I think it's important to think through which teams you're
leaving off because the field often, really really condenses
on those teams. The teams that they just aren't
selecting anywhere from we also talked about the kicker and the
defense is being a soft fade as opposed to the hard fate of just
leaving the team's off because if you have a kicker and a
defense as As a team. Then you know you don't want
that team to advance. And then the key role here that
I should have already said, is that you only select one player
from each team? You can only when you're filling
out the sign up you can only pick one player from any
individual team and Super Bowl is worth double points.
And that I think there is, you know, the meme the like Galaxy
brain meme with this contest. I think there's like the levels
to it, right? Where it's like, just play the
best place. Oh, then start to look at
projected points and then like, the third level is start to
layer on various Super Bowl scenarios in playoff bracket
scenarios on top of those other elements.
And then there's also an ownership angle and yada yada.
So, depending on how deep you want to go down the rabbit hole,
which we are going to go very deep down at this.
Each week, you will have a good time.
But I feel like the Bedrock for attacking this contest is
knowing what is the most likely lineup for the field.
The hand Builders the Boomers at the Sizzler, pulling up their
tablet because Lord knows the van isn't big enough on their
phone to view this team and building a lineup.
And that's where we really tap into Hassan.
And I think I saw something revealed before the show because
Pat, of course, crunches, his ownership numbers for this.
But you and Hassan On arrived on the same Boomer opto
independently we did. And I right before the show, I
thought I'm wrong. The I have theirs.
I have the wrong quarterback. I need to switch this.
So I went switch the quarterback and look down, scroll down to
see what he saw was doing because I was, I have in the
same sheet. I was building one at sounds
below. I scroll down and it's the exact
same one up. So Hassan set set the table for
us here before we start to do, you know, we hand the envelope
over you to do. The reveal, you mentioned a
little bit of your process hanging out at the Sizzler.
What else are you trying to do to get in the mind of an FF PC
grinder for this contest? So so the easiest way to really
is to look at like recent performance and the average
points per game, right? It should just give you an idea
of like yes, yes, yes, no, yes, right?
And and that's and that really is Is I mean, when we, when we,
when we unveiled, this concept A few years ago, it was, it was
like dead on the money, right? They got a like if you guys
remember that, there were a lot of people in the chat saying,
that's my line up or I believe. So we've come, we've come so far
just from just from the concept of pivots but there's going to
be people who just really believe in playing the best
players, right? Like how can you go wrong with
this discomfort? Edible feeling.
I just want to shove in a bunch of teams that look like this and
just sweat them. Asan, explaining the Boomer opto
while his video legs lag Boomer is.
Yeah, it's you can't tell me this isn't part of the bit.
I mean, the only the other one, the only other framing I want to
do before we get into this is acknowledging that the Boomer
opto. These days might just be closer
to the opto might just be the opto.
It might just be the optimal because over the years we've
seen in our drafts the the piss boys are more prevalent.
People are more willing to jam. These wide receivers we don't
have Derrick Henry in these playoffs.
There's a lot of things to sound.
Would you say you felt a little bit of a I don't know, a wind
shift here of how the boomers are approaching these contests.
Yeah 100% I mean there's like a handful of running backs who we
all know and love that we wish the Boomers would be picking and
I just couldn't find a way to put them into the lineup.
Like I just I just couldn't like like I in my initial run.
I was like maybe maybe Mix and make sense and that's just not
going to happen. Right.
Like it's just like even even when you say it out loud, it's
just one of those. Okay.
This is, it feels wrong to put it out there because I don't
think that that's the route that people are going to go anymore.
Yeah. And you know, that's a, that's a
dynamic to and I've listened to a few podcasts are ready to and
like the Galaxy brainers are almost more of a dominant cohort
than the Boomers at this point. It's so I will say Pat, I think
last year your ownership projections were so dialed in.
I almost feel like this year is going to be trickier because I
think this year for the first time, you're going to experience
a little bit of what we experienced in the DFS streets,
with the game of leveling and like, I've already heard
everything. One talk about t Higgins.
Being a pivot on Jamar Chase and like to the point where I'm
like, holy shit, are we going to flip over the cards?
Ta gets the, I don't think that's actually gonna happen in
FF PC. But I'm just saying that Dynamic
is there more than it's ever been any other year.
That is interesting because the chalk is historically, really,
really condensed in this tournament which is one of the
reasons that I like it so much because I like it like an old
gpp like it's the last gpp that hasn't, you know, been destroyed
by all the leveling it. Like everyone kind of plays like
a cache line up in this top, heavy tournament, you know, this
is, this is a tournament, you're trying to finish very first and
the, the payoff, the payouts fall off, pretty considerably
pretty quickly. I will marry, you know, about
finishing first in tournaments. Yeah.
And here, am I? Jesus Christ.
It is FPC. So it is tight and premium
someone in the chat. Now, for the payouts, nice up
there. When you get up there I would
recommend finishing first. That is the Draco and Sam any
other final thoughts here before Hassan.
And we start to go position by position through the Boomer
opto, just kind of other macro takeaways for this contest.
One thing I was and this is more of a question than a take I
have. But so the contest size is for
the 200 dollar entries like 7800 entrance and you're picking like
12 positions, right? So I'm curious like how much are
you guys in terms of ownership? Are you worried more about like
duplicates or do you just want to have like more unique plays
in general? Because I guess I was just
trying to Crunch the math. Like How likely are duplicates
to be a In this tournament, this like this lineup will be
duplicated. I feel pretty strong that when
we reveal the Boomer up though. It's not going.
There are lineups that are duplicated pretty heavily
actually. Yeah.
I mean, because of the way that ownership condenses and less
Pete's right in this year, there's a lot of leveling and
all that, but in the past ownership is condensed enough.
That there have been certain lineups that have duplicated
quite a bit and then the ones that are one or two pivot like,
you know, like the old way of playing a gpp.
The way that I like to play in 2015 was like, I'm gonna get
that 12 percent player and I'm going to stick them in there and
then play all the Chuck this weekend, it's gonna win like
that. A lot of people are still doing
that here. Let me let's back up and talk
about last year for a second and talk about their there was a
number of players that were at least 40 percent owns.
It looks like seven eight nine sounds like 11 players that were
40 percent plus ohms. That's a lot of like very chalky
pieces think about like a DFS lineup like any Any player 40%
on a DFS contest to be mass of Joc Stefon.
Diggs, the New England defense, Rob Gronkowski Joe Mixon.
We're all between 40 and 50. Derrick Henry, Travis Kelce, not
picking Pittsburgh Pittsburgh full fade, we're all between 50
and 60 Debo Samuel, was 64 percent.
The Filly Fade with 74% Davante Adams, 77%.
And Cooper cup was on 91% of rosters.
That was to look too low and just want to play I projected
88% and I understand it. So yeah, I mean that I think
when you have that level of chalk with that many different
pieces you do run into Dukes. All right got it.
Hassan our sorry Draco. Did you have any other macro
thoughts on the contest? And my I had one didn't have one
top. That I do think a lot of the the
top quarterbacks this year also have teammates that could as so.
Obviously with the idea with the quarterbacks is that you want
the one that goes to the Super Bowl and a lot of them have
teammates that could reasonably outscored them in a one-game
sample, like Stefan. Eggs.
You've got Travis Kelce and AJ Brown, like all players Doc in a
one-game, they could be such a high percentage of their of
their production that and I do think that's like I'm not sure
how a typical that is, but I do think that is an interesting.
No that's really interesting. I remember last year there was a
pretty strong possibility, Josh Allen could wind up being the QB
in the. Did he end up being the QB in
the winning line up? We have the winning one if I
haven't seen it yet. I don't last year but they lost
in the second round and he was good enough in his two games
that even like like Borough V ceviches had the potential for
Chase to be the play for the Bangles and cup for to be the
play for the Rams and Alan to be the quarterback.
I see what you're saying. I mean there's there's
interesting ways to think through this as a result of the
way that every years a little bit different.
But it's a good point that this year at QB, has that tie in with
some calling for no man, Sean and Sean's article today.
He said, he could do like a Josh Allen Travis Kelce which I think
that's the most like easily Envision kind of like combo.
But the other guys I mentioned, I can still see that as well.
Yeah, and they're there. You can go down the line, you
can come up with six or seven and if you do think of it, just
through the lens of best play relative to ownership.
And then how many projected points, like assuming you're
using, just an expected Games model?
Like, if you do that calculation for the thing.
That's so interesting about this contest, right?
Is if you project someone to play four games, right?
Like the best player on that team is most likely to score the
most points over a four-game sample.
But the The smaller you shrink shrink that sample, three games
to games one game, the more likely it is that an ancillary
piece or a random one-off piece is to outscore the other guy and
so that's where it gets really fun to start to look at the
ownership of some of these guys who might only play one game,
two games knowing variants can kick in and submarine, a massive
ownership number. That would be my big macro
thought on. This is a lot of times in any of
these types of contests, we say, they're like a gpp in DFS.
One of the biggest parts of DFS GPS is how you can try to limit
the things you have to get, right?
And you can correlate with stacks and bring back soon.
The way many correlations you can maybe just have like three
games be what you're really playing in your hole lined up.
You can't do that here. It feels a little bit like a
12-sided parlay, right? Like they're all independent
things but when you really script it out and you do what?
Pete's, just described. And you try to play out a Racket
and think about where you're concerned pieces.
Are going, you're really playing those teams to lose one lose
early because then it's more likely to be high variance for
that teams production, they lose early than their opponent is
winning. So how does that impact your
opponent? And what you're playing for
them? One of the really good early
teams we had in this. Pat was when you explain a path
in the NFC and cam Akers. Rookie season, I want to say it
was to wasn't one and it was if the Rams one and a different
result in the other NFC Wild Card Game happened, the ram.
Would have not only a good running back matchup.
In the first round, they would go to Green Bay which was a
really good second round running back matchup so we played some
teams where we played Acres, who was loaned in that and
specifically paired that with a different matchup in the other
NFC, wild-card game because it created a better matchup for
acres in the second round. And so we're trying to correlate
with in this lineup That ostensibly isn't correlated but
you can you can do that a little bit when.
Yeah, it's like how does Acres smash you known Acres.
Probably smash because they We beat the Seahawks he gets a
second game, he gets against let you know a run funnel, bad, run
defense. And then you know it's like man
you had to have Acres. So we basically envisioned the
scenario and what you had to have acres and built a lineup
That reflected that in that same vein.
I would also say like think about like if you're making you
know, like Derrick Henry the year before that.
Like if you were betting on the Titans to make a run, it's like
the only possible way that it seemed like the Titans was going
to make it run as if their country is going off.
So if you're kind of you probably you might want to fade,
you know, I forget Like I think it beat Baltimore in the second
round. Forget that may think they
played a Patriots in the first round, so like you probably
wanna fade the Patriots because like you want to go play it as a
shootout, Derrick Henry and a patriot because their cameras
rolling, he's steamrolling, right?
So you gotta think through, I think those outcomes I do have
product coining, try to correlate.
Yeah. I have the winning roster from
last year, be a fantasy. Here we go.
Yeah, so this is a fantasy Mojo. Shout-out to his site, which is
always invaluable. So it was Josh Josh down.
Yeah, Aaron Jones, Jamaica games three, tight end.
Build got hurt Schultz. Kelsey people do forget that it
is tied in premium. People forget, I mean, I forgot
to mention, you can never forget our big leverage point last year
was to flex tie Nets. We did that in a lot of our
lives, but she's have our liner from last year.
I think we had a weird, a strong finish is a Fanta.
Okay, we are going to build one live at the end of this stream.
All right. Hassan.
I just found ours The Lost Generation opto.
Oh yeah so this one, this finished 18th, Josh Jones
generation, I can't wait, AJ Brown steal a cup Debo Jamar
Mike Evans. This is kind of fun.
That would be curbed data Beaker actually if you scroll up he
actually overtook us briefly he was very briefly coming in first
I remember last year. Various can I eat boys?
I do. I have enough distance from this
event but I do just want to say Tyler Auto, drafted and Main
Event team and be this with and because I have you robust are
beating to write finish, we add, you just want I I'm I know I'm
stumbling through this but I just want to say we were the
only team in the main event that had a Derrick Henry and Justin
Jefferson but Tyler's on. Drafted team did, do better than
that. Haha.
Alright. Alright, Hassan, do you want to
go, you want to go position by position?
Or do you want to go in, like descending order from highest
owned? Like, how do you want to go
about this? Let's just go position by
position because I think I think it's easier to just sort of talk
through. Why it makes sense, right?
Mmm. And and this is the guy who
baton I came like. In the end our him and I both
got on. Him is Buffalo Bills.
Quarterback. Josh Alan.
Okay. All right, this is like the
easiest bath. 24 games played rushing upside, Konami Code
quarterback, who's gonna push project and, and bat mention the
neutral site game. It's going to be in a lot of
high-powered shootouts if they make, if they make it past the
fins this weekend, right? And so which I mean, Frank.
Frankly, they probably will be nine and a half Point faves and
a home. So you know, you get all of that
together and it's just fireworks.
Like it's it's really hard to not see a four-point, like a
four game streak here for for for Joshua Allen.
Currently, I was looking at Vegas Futures, before we got on
and the Buffalo Bills have the second shortest odds.
After the chief says as Super Bowl champs, and I think people
will just sort of Login set, and forget everything because when
their fourth game is really sweet, you know, you obviously
want those double points in the Super Bowl.
But Alan is the only quarterback who you feel great about who
gives you a fourth game. Yeah.
My hand hurts both getting buys. Yeah.
The homes in hertz buys. And when you think about the
different positional stuff like you think about Kelsey pulling
from a home. Think about AJ Brown pulling
from hurts? I mean, Diggs is obviously a
great player but people just have in their head that The
bills spread the ball around. In the comfiest, click on the
bills is by far Josh Allen. So very much agree with that.
Hisagi doctors coversations. I'm ready to go to the sizzle.
Josh. Yeah.
Hassan what's our next pick here?
This is this is bats boy, Austin Eckler.
That's right, that's that's a bad guy.
I mean, this is this is really easy.
I would like if you really need it like more reasons for why
Eckler makes sense, like the fact that Mike the Mike Williams
was carted off to YouTube. The Chargers just playing all
their starters in a meaningless game.
I mean, I mean look like that. You can see Greek one, well not
weak one but you know Wildcard Weekend especially against the
Jags is just got off a run defense like a quick and get 15
targets and put up, you know, basically like 200 yards from
scrimmage with two scores, right?
So this is an easy one, I think, I think he's the only like non
quarterback. That's leading his team in PPR
scoring to. So, what's your point?
I saw two people just looking at scoring.
Like the fact that hecklers outscoring Herbert and know No
other running backs are doing that to their quarterback.
I think just makes him an obvious obviously.
So that's on. I'll play a little devil's
advocate here, just to sharpen your Boomer opto knives that
Draco one in the FPC contest. I think there's a ton of steam
right now on the Jags. The line move from plus two and
a half two Jacks plus 1. They I wouldn't be surprised to
see it as a Pick'em by kickoff. Do you think any of this Jags?
Steam pushes people off of Eckler, or do you think people
will be content to play this both ways because it has the
second-highest projected, total on the wildcards late.
There's actually some reverse line movement before we hopped
on his back. The plus 2 right now.
Oh my goodness has signed my goodness lines.
More than me. We're out here.
Looking at that. No.
I mean both of these teams have Incredibly forgiving run defense
has right? So I think that because because
Eckler again has just such a high Target floor and the fact
that he is just a force to be reckoned with in the open field,
like I really can't see, people not wanting to have a clear in
their lineup, like like like like people will talk themselves
into he's going to give me thirty five point game and go
out or I'm gonna get 95 points from him.
The man some of that extent, right?
Like if it right, if the Chargers, make a run.
So they're going to like create this massive like range where
they but they're basically or like their base case.
That I go very high art book. Um, yeah, does anyone have any
other thoughts on the Eckler pedicure?
You know. I think it was fine.
I wasn't that impressed by Austin Heckler.
This year. I mean, he did he clear the
threshold? I was on but he did have a case
to feed him more so than like a case against him being the
Boomer all do. But if you look at Weeks 14 to
17, which I think are the only games that both Mike Williams,
and Keenan, Allen were healthy this year Eckler We had a 13
percent Target share, which is obviously still very good for
running back, but it's certainly lower than his season total.
Very fortunate to have a mat when those two players were
injured so up and then write well.
And also, I think that Evans backs or the Mike Williams back
stuff is is Meaningful. It's like so much harder to
stomach. Fading, Austin.
Aguilera if you're worried about him, not being fully healthy.
Yeah, that's very real because he was carted off.
Like, I don't know. It was I don't know if you
Sighs, nobody's known, planets back spasms.
One week ago, help. All right.
I'll save it for later in the week to convince Pat on are to
say that. Austin declar is a fade in this
contest is on. Let's keep going.
This is this is everybody's favorite favorite injured
running back. Christian McCaffrey like this
one. Just I mean this is like the
easiest like he like, I know I know you guys over at stealing
lying. Ines putout, putout at CMC to
lead the entire playoffs in rushing yards and you at plus
181. Where am I at 80 to 110?
That sounds that sounds too high.
That's so he was aggressive. That's Peppa.
Yeah, I feel like they added a zero added.
There really is the only guy that I
think can really pull some ownership from CMC is kid'll.
Be Because of the tight end premium scoring.
Kittles played extremely well down the stretch.
Although, I think you could argue some of that as correlated
with Debo Samuel being out. Now, we have Debo Samuel fully
healthy, he was fully healthy per week 18.
I am curious where the CMC verse kittel, ownership Falls, and
we'll get to that later in the week, but CMC clearly going to
be the jam of all jams and Hassan.
I would say if we're harkening back to Boomers jamming, the
highest ceiling running backs. I mean They're going to love
Eckler and see MC in tandem. Yeah, this is like this is like
pretty much like the way I think a lot of boomers are going to be
feeling comfortable. But but they're not done yet.
You know what I mean? Like, everybody, like from a
wide receiver position and this is this is great.
Just seeing because like the easiest, the easiest one here is
the inclusion of the easiest is just Justin Jefferson, right?
Justin Jefferson like, I mean, there was a there was a not too
long ago where we thought he was going to be the 101.
And I don't think that has really changed.
And I think, I think that people are just going to be very much
on him. Please, the one thing I will say
to people saying, I don't know if CMC is the easiest, like, if
you look at other sentiment indicators, you look at where
CMC is going and Gauntlet drafts.
He will routinely go 101, even over some of Quarterbacks, he's
the third his ATP right now is 103.
People fucking love CMC. They are bought into the
ceiling. They are bought in to the 49ers.
People are even acknowledging. That Eli Mitchell will get some
work, but the market has zero concerns about CMC in this 49ers
team right now. Yeah, what Dalton's actually
took with CMC to win Super Bowl, MVP at 12:42 with, that's the
one. All right?
And then he also took I'm giving away place here but also took
Elijah Mitchell. Most rushing yards in the
playoffs which could happen. MC still, probably outscores
them. Right?
Like that. But the idea is, there's a lot
of rushing from San Francisco on a nice, a Francisco playoff run,
and they have a potentially very favorable path, people, anyone
looking anywhere into this, looking into the bracket are
going to say, you know, I like San Francisco to make a little
bit of a run here and how are they going to do it?
They're going to do to their running backs.
Hassan, did you get, did you have any other thoughts on
Justin Jefferson? Because this one, this feels
like near Cooper couple levels last year be where people are
going to feel fine about him. And Viking Super Bowl runs,
they're going to feel fine about him in, you know, losing even to
the Giants. They'll be willing to play that
as kind of a shootout. I mean, there's no holes to poke
in his sky-high ownership and I think really what like what has
failed to Any ownership away from Jefferson has been David
Cooks, absolute faceplant of a season, like he has had a fairly
rough go of it of it. Just I mean if that one could
anywhere closer to it to a bigger season than he did have
maybe they, you know, you could have still seen as 75%.
Josh and Jefferson but there's nothing stopping.
The Cooper cup friend. Well, TJ Hawkinson.
Yeah I mean I mean but like will even when you try to like shove
I mean the only thing that you can really get into your Hawkins
and is if you're saying that the Vikings are going to win and
then Hawkinson is going to reprise his ridiculous
performance from the last time. These two teams played Yeah,
that's the only way you can actually really draw macro
ownership away from Justin Jefferson.
The one thing No One's Gonna Do, it's kind of interesting because
Jefferson's can be really high on, but no one's actually going
to want to play the Vikings to win, but if they do win, like
like and go on a run with the Vikings at the Super Bowl,
right? Like, nobody thinks that's
possible but it's actually probably more possible if people
are actually going to think and yet Jefferson is going to be
really highly played. And if they go to the Super
Bowl, you're probably. You're probably playing
Jeffersonville. You probably want Jefferson.
Yeah, I think we'll get to some of this stuff but there's
certain teams were there's really no.
You don't even have to put that much thought into it.
I didn't have I actually just raised Jefferson up after Pete
made that Stan. Because I had like, you know,
like a little dabble with Alvin and I'm like, I think you're
right. I don't think anyone's plan
anything well, but maybe it's in Hawkinson.
Might get a little just for the tight end.
Flexibility the tight end point is a good point, but just give
you another data point. Like, in these Gauntlet drafts,
like in the initial Gauntlet draft, I mean, Dalvin cook was
going more at like the two three turn to a lot of Jefferson
teams. Kirk Cousins was going.
Hi Justin. Jefferson's ATP has not budged
in these latest Gauntlet drafts but Dalvin cook and Kirk
Cousins, our major fallers right now and the market is down on
this team, but they're not down on Justin Jefferson.
And I think the cop for me this year, for Justin Jefferson, I
thought I saw someone in the chat, say, CMC, is this year's
Cooper cup? I would say Justin Jefferson.
Is this year's Debo Samuel and that he feels comfy in either
scenario. Either way you play it as a loss
or a win. Just in Jefferson is that click
feels good and I'm the tight end point as well.
Just looking at Pat's Saint Pat's ownership.
No sir. Get to, and just looking at the
tight ends that are available. We have Kelsey with the
interest. We've got it.
We have Evan engram. Who loves you?
Have the great close to the season, George Kettle.
Same thing. Schultz Hawkinson Dawson knocks.
I mean, there's a lot of really good Titans Quest.
This is the same thing as last year.
We said there's a lot of really good Titans.
Somebody tell Arthur Smith that the teams that user Titans, go
to the playoffs because all the best tight ends are in the
playoffs, every freaking year. Why can't the Falcons use their
China? Sorry.
All right. Hassan take us to the next wide,
receiver. Yeah, you guys mentioned him
earlier. Das like this is what happens
when you don't pick you up and hers.
I mean it's a bomb. Speak on that.
I mean, just the coolest motherfucker on the, in the NFL,
man. He's just so cool.
Here's a question for you, too. Jalen Hurd, Stefon.
Diggs, Josh Allen AJ. Brown like, how close actually
is that? Or is it a runaway, Josh Allen
AJ Brown? No, that's a flip.
I think his Bat and I both and I original Boomer.
Opterons had Jalen Hurd, Stefon, Diggs Okay.
And this is one that we came up vote independent of each other
again, because we're like on the same Google sheet, but we're
putting these lineups completely independently of each other at
different times. Yeah, well this was the thing
just hit me like it's not going to be hurts because you last
year we saw the winning lineups, get there with Alan without
going to the Super Bowl and you know, the with the shootouts and
everything that people can be so excited to play Alan and then
there's a chance he gets to the Super Bowl with the neutral site
game, the double points. It's, it's so appealing and
while I think digs will probably be more owned than brown.
I don't know that, that, like, that the most dupe lineup, I
think we'll have Alan. I think Alan will ultimately
have more ownership than hurts. I think it it, it it is the
simplest Point here, I'll let you guys just Nate saying
Boomers will want the qv4 for games.
Like that will be will tie breaker to push people to Alan
over AJ Brown. Yeah, I think that's a good
point. I think it's close like maybe my
push back here. Would be if you go Josh,
Alexander And I think like the drop down from AJ Brown to
devote to Smith is like pretty close and a lot of people will
do that. Whereas, if you go with gaalan
hurts, like, nobody's picking Gabe Davis or Singletary over,
you know what I mean? Like, the eagles will be a
relatively more my bread, whereas the bills if you don't
pick Alan, it's going to be so much digs.
So that's like the only case where I can see this going the
other way. And the hurts version of this
will be tubes as well. I think yeah, it'd be the it's
pretty much Much the second most common line up in my opinion as
well. Like I think bad and I came up
with an almost identical second pivot off of they are initial
run was with hurts and digs and like it was not until you like
you factor in that four-game bomb.
Yeah, I think that's that's, whoops, Alan.
Yeah. Do you guys think that the other
Eagles players will keep AJ Brown and check relative to
these other players as they make a run in my opinion?
but yeah, certainly could if they're one and done or even to
well I mean like and then we'll be We'll lose
ownership to other other eagles, I think Hawkins, I don't know, I
think he's very playable. Yeah it's a way to bet on the
Vikings to lose. Right?
Yeah compare Devon this myth. Oh yeah yeah I'll also say like
again, using the underdog playoff ATP is kind of like a
sentiment indicator because of Mi Sanders, basically having to
Dead games. These past weeks are actually
three if you go all the way to extend to the Dallas game.
He has been dropping in drafts and Devon to Smith has like
slipped a little bit, but I don't think Mi Sanders is going
to carry much ownership at all. I think people are completely
out on it. I think the Galaxy brainers will
be on Devon to Smith but I still think AJ Brown will be a
dominant. Click for most people hands.
That's a good. That's a good right there.
It was like there was like a one week period where like I think
the worst manager accounts on Twitter were all like well why
aren't you on Miles Sanders? And the It's ever since then.
It's been like running back 3 plus at best.
Right. Alright, Hassan.
Do the do the free Square here at at tight end?
Yeah, I mean it's actually the Boomer himself.
Travis Kelce. It's beyond that.
I think I think he genuinely was such a bad, it was such a bad
year for tight ends that like even though because he didn't
exactly come close to his own career highs, he just laughed.
The feel to such a degree that that it's just impossible to
Fathom him not being there. I mean, I think about when
you're making making DFS lineups and like you see how hi Kelsey.
Yuri is relative to everybody is like Chelsea, $1700.
Did you Hawkinson 4900? Oh my God, like it's just, it's
just that you know, it really the only I guess what Patrick
Mahomes could pull a little bit Jerick McKinnon.
I mean he is not going to feel like a good click.
I mean who can pull from Travis Kelce right now Mahone of the
wide receivers you're not. I mean, you're not is where you
can click on, Juju Orchid, area stuff, like Darius, Tony or any
of the other like auxiliary guys, no way Gary McKinnon.
No way Pacheco. It's got more, I have to check I
think at 1%. Yeah Prosecco one right?
Yeah, yeah I mean I don't think anybody it's like what's I have?
Juju it too. But yeah.
Eight Kelsey used to be Kelsey used to be massive in this
contest when he had Tyrant kill on his team and tired.
Kill was like, yeah, I was like the library.
Kill was a gal, brain pivot. Right?
A couple years. Yeah, yeah.
And CH was a better running back plan.
People were like, yeah, we can play him a Ittle bit but Kelsey
would still be massively own. We're in a situation now with
the Chiefs for Kelsey's ownership, like it's Mahomes is
the only thing that can stop at the home is not a thing.
It's the only thing. And I mean, you can, you can
listen to shows. I've heard it multiple times
like people already talking about their redraft strategy
next year, Travis Kelce or pun Travis Kelce, your pain like
this sentiment is so strong here.
I had a thought earlier today and I was going to ask you guys
and maybe this is a conversation for a later show this week.
But like if you're playing a tidy Tend to do more than go one
and done, you know, I think there's tight ends.
You can play in one and done scenarios.
What other tight end do you even play in a Super Bowl run?
Other than Travis Kelce, like is anyone even in the conversation?
Thank God, his daughters. The only one I was saying
Goddard overhaul, this in a little bit as I think.
God can actually beat a guy over multiple games for them.
I think it was kind of a little, he can't.
Yeah, I don't know if you can score CMC though, in a Super
Bowl run. Yeah.
Especially people back. This is this is the thing.
I think people like, I like kettle, but everything we've
seen from kid'll is Spike weeks in random things.
The more games you tack on to the Niners, the more likely it
is a CMC or Debo out scores of the same with ghadir in the
Eagles. I think this is the only one I
would entertain. If the Jags go to the Super
Bowl, I could drink rum being the optimal me, too.
And also like, you don't need your tight end to go to the
Super Bowl and a run for The Jags might mean two games.
So I would disagree with this slightly in the sense that you'd
be the tight ends in these cases, like, kittel.
Don't have to be the highest score on their team.
They have to separate from tight end more than the other.
So like the old, those are going down.
Yeah, or CM see if there's other.
Good running backs that score. If they're the only team with a
good running back, who makes a run and obviously there's only a
couple teams that make a run in the place'll.
Most teams are one and done. Frankly for half the team's
kid'll Kettle can be, you know with one Spike.
We can be the clear tight end if there's No other good time then
you know. Yeah.
But if you're giving up a CMC then in and there's another
tight end that does like decently well enough, you're
going to be competing as CCP say, the same seats and by 10
and the tight end. Yes, you could be totally fine.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I do. Yeah.
It just, I think just knowing how people are coming out of
this season, how they think about the tight end?
The only thing that is helping offset.
It is the Titan surge to in the season.
Having Evan engram, TJ Hawkinson You know, put up these big
games. Kittle like, it is a put at
least the seed in people's head like, hey, they could screen
string this together or is it that didn't happen?
Like if weeks 13 372 David IV, Kelsey would be at 100%
ownership. Might be.
All right, Hassan take us to flex territory here.
Yes, we're going to probably you were talking about this with
Austin a clip. We're going to run this back
here with the other running back on the other side which is
Travis etm. I wanted to get your guys
thoughts because etn has given up some rushing production and
some like T, rushing work due to Michael Hasty in recent weeks.
But I still think that people have in their heads.
I mean, he Tian is a fantastic rusher, fantastic actually.
The ball is you know, he really thing against another bad Rush
defense in the Chargers. So I really don't see.
I see him catching the most ownership on the Jags relative.
The to, you know, the the pivots they want, they crushing power,
grab and Ingram. I think this is where like, I
think etn catches the most ownership You put City Jones on
there as a joke but isn't he on ionically like a really nice way
to play them as a one and done like hire a doctor?
I think I think anger might be the best way because it.
Yeah, I think anger my pent-up anger at the home homes.
To Ingram is fun. It that's why I like for the way
I'm thinking about the Jags just as of this moment is that Kirk
and Ingram are sick place that's just kind of what.
Yeah, I think Kirk is a really sick play.
The braids up Jones. Yeah, I guess go ahead Sam.
I'm curious. I think like if you're comparing
etn to other guys on his team, he certainly could be the most
own, but I'm curious to compare him to, I guess like the soft
fade teams. I do get the sense that
Jacksonville will be pretty spread out.
So you see what I'm saying? Like, I don't think the question
is, is he take want to be a lot higher, for example.
Yeah. Yeah.
Not like I think my have them very even and I'll tell you, I
think the my thinking on that and I could be I could be off on
that, but I thinking is you're getting them going against the
Chargers run defense? Yeah.
People are going to feel comfy like, well, went like, if they
win, I get two games out of the running back.
That's nice. But even in a loss, he Tian
should be able to get there against this defense and just
play the match up. And then even who they can they
get and they're going to end up playing the Chiefs next to also
don't have a particularly great run.
Defense is Isn't this interesting know to think of the
dynamic. So the two highest projected
totals on The Wire. Wildcards late is Jags Chargers
and the Giants of Vikings in the to comfiest clicks on the soft.
Fades would be the running backs Berkeley in etn and yet you can
poke holes in those guys being an optimal - game script play if
they're losing. I think Berkeley holds up a
little bit more. I saw Jack Miller at a tweet
today about Travis ctn's Target share.
I mean it's been poor and so that's why I like etn.
Feels like a little bit of a trap.
If you are projecting the Jags to lose like if you're playing
this as the Eckler etn, I mean, I don't know that some of the
logic doesn't track for me there.
I think, I think just from a, from a pure public perspective
eat like etn, may not feel like bad chocolate when you started
really digging into making a case against it.
It's like the sheen wears off really quick, right?
I do feel fairly confident that he will be chalky because when
you look at the teams that people are going to fade it
generally lines up really you know not completely neatly with
their odds of advancing in, you know round one and to the
Superbowl eventually but there's a strong correlation and the
Giants. Looking at 5:38 have a 33%
chance to advance around to Jacksonville 59 percent chance.
So, you know, I think in you're talking to Pete about how
there's some Um, hype around the Jags, you have to fade to of
these teams. And the Giants are a team that I
think will be somewhat popular. Yeah.
As a fade and that's going to make it harder to get to
Berkeley. Whereas, you know, you have a
bigger pie with the Jaguars because less people are fading
the team. This is the dynamic, that's
really interesting to me. Ned says, I bet more people go
to Ingram people, famously forget, FPC is tied in premium,
Evan engram, set the league on fire, you know, weeks 14 through
16 but he had Reception 42 yards against the Texans in week 17.
He had four receptions for 27 yards, and week 18.
And I do think that recency bias element is going to bleed into
ownership in a way he is going to be spread out across Kirk,
Zay in etn. Like I do really feel like this
is going to be spread out with, of course, Travis etn.
Leading the way. Yeah.
Like I feel like Kirk might actually be the Louis owned of
the, of the Jags. Relative three of the three.
Yeah, that's the exact obviously is like the fourth, right?
Yeah. I have a donorship projections,
but I'm just going by Vibes right now, the Jags as a soft
fate. They are somebody.
You should be getting tricky with right because like if
you're saying there any gonna play one game that's when?
Yeah, anybody can do it. Riley, Patterson chipsy.
Um, alright, Hassan, it is time for our next Has Flex pick.
You guys were already discussing about my little, make it
official sake 1. This is a guy who I DM bad about
a little bit just because Actually, initially I had I had
the Giants defense initially it. Initially I had the Giants his
defense as in play with with the hurts lineup.
But the more I thought about it, I agree in that the advanced
analytics have, this is a fork, when flipped like I think the
Vikings are only three point, favorite home sake, One Berkeley
is the most comfortable way to play through this offense and
especially the highest total game at whole.
I mean, highest total game, and it's in it.
Dome. As I can see, people wanted to
try to bank it a shower or two along with whatever you had last
time at 88 Gadget or something. Ridiculous.
Will you dming him about his quads?
What was the contents of this d'ya?
Know how people are going to play this game.
If they were going to ya later shootout?
Because yeah I'm telling you right now I'm going to be in
your ear about upping, Barclays ownership because when you
couple it with no one's playing. Daniel Jones, right?
And no one is going to feel good about clicking Isaiah Hodgins,
Darius Layton, Richie, James. And people, there's a
Groundswell of sentiment about a giant subset here.
A lot of people think that that's a thing.
That's how you get it up it because I have one percent on
Slaton. Yes.
Essentially, a placeholder for the entire rest of the offense.
I have zero on Jones, Hodgins James.
So there's a one percent in this entire offense currently
allocated to not Sake One Berkeley, but I have a quite I
have a total fade on this team of 51 percent, including the
kicker defense in the fade and it's maybe that's where I'm
wrong. But you got it.
I think it's gonna come down, I think are clear, it seems you do
but so when people look, Des has the highest projected total on
the Slate. Yeah, people are going to want
to play this. Both ways people are going to
fucking Jam Jefferson and Berkeley.
I'm telling ya, he's definitely Jami Jefferson in part because
this is where, like, but everybody I saw bad put her
down. In his and I had the Giants
defense because I wanted to be a little unique.
I was like, nah, I just think Sake One make sense here.
Like I just can't see how people don't do this.
A probably right now that Giants.
The question what the Pat and Pete?
What do you think that what you call it sake one should because
I'm just Looking at looks like he has 40.
What is a 48%? Forsake one might not would be
this. I think I think sake one is fine
but I would much prefer say Kwan in soft Vikings Fades or
Berkeley with Hawkinson. I just think I kind of want to
avoid the Berkeley the same program.
What? Yeah, the ownership do you
think? That that sounds about right to
me. I think the Jags Chargers game
in the Vikings Giants game are going to be the two games.
People are going to be willing to say, I don't know who's going
to win. I'm going to play a stud on each
side and be happy with the outcome regardless.
Yep. And it's easy to talk yourself
into that into this being some kind of shoot out because
because this game could dad like pretty frankly this game Done
right? They click I initially had the
Giants defense, just because if you're playing, is this game was
a dud like how did this game died?
Well, You know, Captain Kirk just turns and turns into the
guy who we've seen the last few weeks where he Turtles, and
through the bunch of books, right?
But I do think say Quan deserves to be the highest like pie storm
Giant. I see lots of good like Galaxy
brain thoughts in the chat Hodgins is G Cano, playing
through the wide receivers. I don't think any of you guys
are wrong. I'm just telling you this when
you like and you can look again, I know I keep referencing this
but I think it's a good indicator when you look at
Gauntlet ATP. I mean Barclays.
Going in the fifth or sixth round.
Daniel Jones will get drafted in the final round in the rest of
these Giants are going undrafted.
I mean, no one feels confident about anything else on the
Giants other than Berkeley. I think it's worth noting too
that we're talking through. This is going to be our pick for
the most duplicated lineup for the 200 dollar contest, and
we're kind of talking through ownership and stuff for the 200
dollar contest. I don't think people are going
to feel, okay, putting $200 down on Isaiah Hodgins.
You'll see some of that in the, in the 35 dollar cons.
There's a thirty five dollar version of this and it makes
more sense to get a little more, gal brain there.
But I just, I just don't see people doing that here.
So week 17, I had I'd say Conan one of my FPC teams and I think
the Giants got to go line like three times and someone other
than a than say, Quan got touchdowns. if I'm not, I'm not
saying that this is why he should be lower and but and if
something like that happened again, it could easily see
another another giant be the, yeah, I mean it's the same, it's
the same case for Josh Allen, right like Konami Code, Gold
Line, running bad guy, Yeah. All right.
Let's move on from Berkeley. Let's head to the next Flex here
at Saint. Who do you got?
This is how, you know, the the winds are shifting.
This is Jamar Chase. Yeah, I initially had like,
mixing there. And I was like, I can't even do
it, man. I even like the even mix-ins.
Like, biggest backers are like, he ain't that good?
I don't know, man. They're still looking as
expected points and they are Excited about you.
Think, you think a boomer knows what unexpected point is.
Exactly, that's our current Boomer and the 2023 landscape
geriatric, Millennials Jerry. Yeah, that sucks.
But no, I just, I just don't see how you go away from Jamar Chase
here, unfortunately, right? Like he just I mean he was he
was like going earlier than everybody else in ffp.
See, Main Event wraps like I just don't see how people are
going to be away from him because I mean Jamar Chase just
is that? Do you know if AJ Brown didn't
exist here? Just like in coolest guy in the
NFL, well, it Major Brown Justin Jefferson didn't existed there,
you know, the coolest guy in the NFL.
Yeah, I I think, you know, the way that things have played out
with Joe Mixon in Teja. Egan's like people know that
they have the ceiling in the back of their head, we've seen
both those guys have monster games but none of those guys
feel comfy relative to Jamar Chase.
I mean Jamar Chase has such a comfy click and they Jim
Marchese really needs and it sounds really cliche but one
target man, one target. He's breaking a 97 yard
touchdown to the house and that's all you need, right?
And like that's the he's the guy who can make it happen on one
play. Have you seen that?
Can you guys poke any holes on Jamar, Chase being shocked?
I honestly can't I can't. No I was making a joke about the
mixing thing but especially with how past having the Bengals win
down the stretch and makes it actually like stopped getting as
much work. Inside the tent.
Like, the last I'm looking at now the last five weeks, he only
got four carries inside the 10. It was part of the right average
in like three game, he was leading the league by a lot by.
I mean, there's like Jamal Williams is close to him, but
there's maybe only one of the running back with them.
An attempt per game of him. He was at like three in
overdoses at like to heal. And for down the stretch in the
last five games that he played, because they went past heavy.
Like the we talk about the recency bias, people are going
to be focused on how they've played recently and they've
thrown a lot like chases. She's getting shot for sure.
Yeah. Nixon snaps of also like before
he got injured they were consistently like 70% plus snaps
since he's come back, it's been more on like the 50 to 60 range
with with piron's roll growing. So again like Reason, I don't
know if that's because they've been passed happy and like
there's still a chance they'll use mix and really heavy in the
playoffs or whatever. But the recency bias thing on
mix in just. The usage is not been greatly so
I don't see people going to him over Chase.
I'll try to play a little bit Devil's Advocate in that unlike
say Justin Jefferson where people are going to feel really
comfy playing it in either scenario.
If Lamar for some reason doesn't play or people want to play this
as a Bangles route. Is there anything where they're
like, hey mixing could just Smash in this game against a
depleted Baltimore team? I guess then you're taking mix
in on the road to Buffalo. Yeah, real good.
Yeah. But I still think I think you're
right there. I think mix-ins gonna get played
more than Alpha cook because like for the yes he's a large he
was, you know, I don't even know that he was that much better.
I haven't looked at their scoring lately, but obviously
got a ton of work in the end and the usage.
And people saw 5, TD game out of him.
This year, I mean it's certainly possible that he could have a
monster game. I can see that like I think he's
more of a threat to chase than cook his to Jefferson for sure,
and if you had to order going after Chase, who do you think
catches more Higgins or mix in? That's interesting to me.
I thought you were gonna go Higgins when you said to make a
counter case. I think that's it.
I had mixed in, but I think it's Higgins.
I'm yeah, I just I just flip them.
I think it s too. Yeah.
It's going to be close. I think it's really close.
It's relevant. Well, whether go for like, how
Gallagher in this contest is now it's like how close windows guys
relative to the chase. I thought Pete, you were going
to make a case that Higgins is so much more of a threat than,
like, Adam thielen or even Hawkinson.
Right? And he is and he had a monster
Super Bowl. You also, like, last year you
had that element were Chase, had the better run but then Higgins.
Got the 2x Super Bowl points in God close.
I think, right? He was close to being Being the
option for them. It could be Higgin.
I mean I think again is going to be played a decent amount.
Yeah I think Megan's is analogous to Devon to Smith and
the only difference in the comp of Eagles versus Philly is that
people feel a little bit better about Joe Mixon than they do Mi
Sanders. But I do think if you rank
sentiment for eagles in Cincinnati is similar.
AJ Brown Jamar, Chase Tegan, jovanka, Smith Joe Mixon Mi
Sanders. I think I think you'll see more
Higgins and Smith because God our might draw some.
Yeah that's true. God hurts more of a pole than
Hearst definitely But is hearse or Jalen Hurd, it's more of a
pull than burrow. Yes for, yes.
Yeah, for sure, for sure. Yeah, but I mean I think Chase
is chunkier than brown. I think chases.
I think Jason definitely chocolate and brought great.
Yeah a great I do think there is Mauro a donkey play.
No I think I don't think he's got a bunch of guys all climb
into the crown car. Yeah II the private chat ban I
put Borrow might be the goat. Everyone's gonna come to that by
Friday, that's good. Yeah, yeah.
And then the move is Justin Herbert like, just just break.
I feel a lot better about Borough than Herbert Herbert
Herbert. Let's move this along here.
I think it's pretty clear is going to be the most popular
Bangles play. What do we got next?
Yeah, chats been chats already been calling for this and then
you know, it's going to be CD lamb.
I mean this is from from from a macro perspective, all of a
sudden you're able to cram for of the like the best wide
receivers in the NFL in the same line.
Right? Like all of a sudden you've got
like the Like, pretty much anyone.
Anyone who's been picked in the first and early second round
next year or even this year, right?
So all of a sudden, you can combine these guys, and there's
no, there's no constraint ER, for you.
Yeah, why wouldn't you re so, from a macro perspective, this
is what really makes the most sense because because you're
able to cramp this much, like, receiving down.
It mean that said lamb has been like the only one true constant
there. I mean, like Gallup has come up
with. No Brown is day.
Going away targets. You're not gonna play no Brown.
And this Zeke is, you know, essentially spending time with
bothered I think that ball is going to both bossy.
Could going to get out of ownership but if you're playing
this game as a shootout which it could be, then you want to go
the lamb route, Yeah. In the only guy, I think who
could have competed with him would have been Tony Pollard,
who was kind of setting the league on fire there for a
spell. But you look at his last two
games, seven attempts 19, rushing yards, nine attempts 19,
rushing yards, he did in week 17 against the Eagles, have six
receptions, but I've noticed Tony Pollard slipping and
drafts. He's another one that's been a
massive slider relative to early Gauntlet ATP.
Were he was like a 2 3 turn pick with a lot of lamb Stacks.
Everyone was Is doubling them up and now you can get them in the
fourth fifth round at times. So sentiment has shifted on
Pollard whereas lamb has stayed right up there.
So I do I can't make any case for anyone other than CD up
here. But it is an interesting point
that it brings us to with the for Fades that you guys both
came to this consensus that in particular, both the Box
Seahawks and dolphins, I think the Ravens wouldn't really shock
anyone Dolphins Seahawks Bucks have a lot of good players on
them. You guys have them Has faded one
way or another. Yeah.
So, in the initial in the initial Ryan, if you give you
see, I had Josh and Docker initially there and I am getting
this growing feeling that. I just don't think Lamar Jackson
plays. Like, I just have this, like
it's still early. So early tomorrow.
Know if he doesn't practice tomorrow.
Yeah. Elle's need to start fucking
ring. Yeah.
Like I just had this like, initially when I made my first
bass, I was like, maybe he was just maybe they would like
making a business decision, sitting him out, but even then
if even if Lamar plays at bash again, Tucker here in the K
because that team is kind of depleted.
Realistically, I really think that they make.
They make a lot more sense of the fade here even They're
Vegas. Odds are making the Super Bowl
are more than the Jags or even the Giants but you mean, you
don't feel comfortable, clicking Mark Andrews, right?
So I think, you know, just to go back to the K.
You guys see the Lamb on the one side?
We said we were going to if you're playing, this is a
shootout which is projected to be, then your K bring back is
suck up, right? Yeah and this is this is kind of
like a dumb point but just the fact that it's Justin Tucker,
people are just gonna love putting him in the kicker spot
like Ignore all the other stuff like Ryan suck up, like some of
these other kickers, Riley Patterson, the Boomers have
never heard of Riley, Patterson. They've heard of Justin Tucker.
Okay? Yeah.
Are we getting are we getting us?
Ahead of ourselves kid chasing. It's the show where we chased
the best kickers. The kicker's that helped you win
championships. The biggest legs the breaking
news. It's everything you've come to
love. Love and know the time is now
for kicker King. Let's get some fucking kickers
was thinking that might be our other kicker clip.
And clip told us he finally arrives by get a double kicker
Cliff here. Facade is who's the kicker?
I mean so it is suck up, right, Mama.
Yeah, no no. My original my Original run had
Tucker. So my actual original run didn't
have Berkeley. It had Godwin instead right?
Because people would not be comfortable playing either one
of CD lamb or the box to lose, right.
You Dallas or bucks to lose. So I had to choose God went in
there but but the more I thought about it and like the more I'm
looking over it, like I think the box like a lot of people are
picking the box of the trendy upset and that will be the one
where I feel like you're just going to find people going.
All right? If I want to, if I want Like
some points from a from an easy, you know, matchup where he's
going to shoot out gonna guess you're going to go to suck up
route, but I would have law because like my original, my
original run, didn't have C'est quand.
It had the Giants DSD and Justin Tucker and the dolphin in
Seattle with the Fades. So Nate saying that Boomer
softening Tom. Brady feels wrong.
I do think that the Godwin Dallas D version of this will
also be very popular. I gotta use the other side of
this game. Yes, I was going to say that
exact same thing. It's similar to the Josh Allen
AJ Brown hurts. Yeah.
Eggs 2, V 2. I can see people splitting how
they approach this. I think I would argue its onset
though that having both a Dallas and Bucks player in because it's
a, you know, it's a spread inside a three-point, it's a 45
game. I think it's easy to play both
sides of it right even more so than the Vikings Giants which
has a close spread as well. And people don't get the whole
Offense. When you pick sake one, right?
That's how it is, you get the whole offense, you don't you
have to pick God when you have to pick Evans and that where I
landed with this, is that I think ultimately people are
going to go give me CD. I know I have the Dallas side,
you know, is basically toss-up but I'll pick Dallas and then I
don't have to deal with the headache of picking the right
book The and I do I see a lot of chat and I do think I have seen,
you know the line hasn't moved, right?
The line has stayed at Tampa Bay.
Plus 3, I know there's A lot of people who are like, hey, Tampa
Bay has come on strong Dallas just flopped against the
Commander's. I wouldn't be surprised to see
etn flipped for a Godwin or Evans.
Yeah, Uber opto yeah, man, go down to like a Riley Patterson
or a defense Jags defense as the Jag soft fade.
I think it's may be closed between those because people are
ready to bet against the Cowboys after that flop.
Week. Yeah, and I just think I just
think that like right now the Jags eye-catching so much media
attention that is really hard to not have etn in there, right?
Like it's really hard to have him in there right now even
though Vegas doesn't give the Jags, the Giants Miami or the
Seahawks much of a shot. Yeah, I do think that one's
going to be close because there's really yeah three games
that you play both ways, right? It's of course Jags Chargers.
It's Giants Vikings and then it's Cowboys and bucks and I
think to your point p with the J.
I mean we're talking about it from the Vegas perspective.
I think some some Boomers going to look at from the Vegas
perspective. I think some were going to look
at it. I guess it's sort of the way
that I'm looking at it from the Boomer mentality.
When I want to mention the Giant.
I insist potentially a fade is like, which of these teams were
good fantasy offenses, right? Like the Bucks through more
passes this year. I think that any team in NFL
history, right? Or second, most of any, of the
extra game, but they led the league in pass attempts.
There was a lot of volume to go around in that offense, they're
in a potential could go either way game and they were like a
fun fantasy offense. Wears a Giants weren't right?
And with the punishment of fun fantasy offense, I mean they had
a good week against the Panthers but they were pretty good.
Yeah. Oh would you say it was a good
week against the Panthers? Some some some are saying it's
fun from a perspective of the through passes, whereas the
Giants were very run-heavy team, I feel like the Bucks coming on
strong narrative. There's a very low bar, they
were like losing to the Falcons when they had all their starters
in this week, but yeah, they're coming on real strong for the
playoffs. That's how I feel Sam.
I'm like, I don't know why. This, it's like a fraudulent
coming on strong. I'm like, what is this momentum?
I don't even see it but they have two people are gonna want
to play Tom? No, yeah.
The Boomer months. That is they're coming on
strong. That's yeah.
For sure. It's true.
That is true. And the biggest issue that I
have with like, but like but like the box is man.
They, they really not a fun team to watch.
If you have to hit its you sit and watch their games.
They like the most you lose. Like I think you lose like a
next, the Boomer death. He submits this to hundred
dollar lineup and then he puts a thirty five dollar line up with
Tom. Brady at quarterback.
Oh, 100% 100%. Well, again, I do think recency
bias with this stuff is like, really big.
And if you think about how people thought, maybe the Jags
would handle, the Titans, more in etn, went 7-4 17, and they
gave me only had two receptions, whereas, we're coming with the
Box, who just Had a massive game, two weeks ago.
I know they kind of folded against the Falcons but they
weren't playing for anything. I just I do, I think my Boomer
opto would flip etn off there when you think about the Bevy of
options for the Jags. I just wonder if people are
spooked on etn right now. Interesting.
All right. That's just my Liam I think
traditionally like if you would have done this Boomer opto two
weeks ago, a fucking course like etn.
For this. But I'm kind of thinking that
people are not going to feel confident with ET.
And the more I kind of talked this through and think about the
game, they want to play both ways.
Yeah, you tell just doesn't seem healthy and I don't know how
much people are paying attention to that, but the last two weeks,
he's really, is snaps in the role of been pretty down so I
don't know. Yeah, but that but yeah, I think
I agree with you Pete on the Godwin etn switch.
Yeah, I think I think there might be right there.
The because because because I initially did have mean I'm in
there with Docker and I had who to have a device, a giant City.
But like, I think, I think I'm fat and I agree like, Seattle
sprawling, a events. No, it's probably gonna be.
It's a very helpful or oh, I seem to do it.
Yeah, the pushback I would have on This is the Boomer opto is
that there's going to be some Evans, right?
So like if you think about the most Duke lineup, maybe
Buccaneers wide receiver. You're right.
But I don't know about people, I do think they'll go to Godwin
over Evans. You get the narrative with the
pass rush and everything, but Evans is gotta catch some right
here. Here's the thing, though about
Evans, right? He Was I know he missed last
week, right? So maybe throw that out, but
people have this thought on Evans is being extremely
boom-bust, right? Like had a string of like six
games, none of the are yards, hitting Godwin is the comfy.
Boomer click, he's consistently been a Target earner, he's had
solid games back to back. PPR scoring people aren't
chasing the spike week is much in Godwin.
Feels good. This goes back to the depot, the
Jefferson thing - game script positive game, script Godwin can
get there and either one That's a good point.
And again, if you want to talk about a name-brand, kicker that
the Boomers feel comfortable, clicking
So people have been stealing that clip and passing it off as
your own work on Twitter. I have that really did someone
legit. Yeah.
That clip. Oh yeah, yeah.
Oh that's I reported them. I reported them for like
offensive material or something. Twitter police get this man.
You know what? Zack all do this exact says, can
someone please explain this Boomer?
Meaning like you said to the Frog Play, here's the thing.
There's good people on both sides.
That this is the lineup that we think is most likely to be
replicated by the field. We think these are the comfiest
clicks. If you play DFS, this is the
chalk line up. These are the best place, they
are the best place but in conjunction it is probably not
your path to winning five hundred thousand dollars but
definitely that your path to 500,000 it might be your path to
women like, you know, 50,000 with a hundred of your His
friends. If you're if you're, if you're a
cash game King, this is what you're putting in.
Yeah. It might be your path to
winning. A free subscription to football
guys. Next year?
Yeah, like all the I guess with more content saying oh no you
should be contrarian he can. He can feel like someone like
where you're going against the grain of it.
I actually don't think it'll be Tucker.
I think I think the more do version of this will be Jags
kicker. Yeah because Tucker hasn't
actually been all that high owned in past years.
I know he's got the name brand and that's, you know what?
I, but in part because Andrews was more of a play and Lamar was
more of a play, the Ravens have had more faith on what they can
do. It's really opened up for Justin
Tucker this year but people want to play that as a I think you
Jenna, what you generally see is that people will play the kicker
as a shootout and so, two years ago, Tucker came in at 9%.
I actually don't think the name brand will be that much of a
boost he was at. And I had a projected 73 years.
I think I lived through. The uprights are goes.
I think maybe you guys are right, but I think if not, it'll
be that. Yeah.
Yeah, I think I think both bad and I approached it from the
perspective of the Martin being out because he's in the reason I
think Pat you can eat. You can correct me if I'm wrong.
But the reason I had Seattle defense and there is of all the
remaining teams than most like some kind of traction in terms
of turnovers because that game in San Francisco's projected to
be kind of Muddy. Potentially not that great of a
like not great feeling condition so they could look into some
kind of turn. A overlock.
I think that that's, that was my reasoning behind.
Why I wanted Seattle DST as a jockey fence.
That's how I felt too. I just felt like, you know,
maybe they get a brock pretty pic or something.
I think this is, I said, Yeah. Oh yes, I see you guys.
You would have had Seattle D and then hard fate of Miami and
Tampa is what know, I know. And Baltimore and as well.
Yeah, because because, because we're both assuming Lamar's not
going to play and Miami's like Dent Point dogs.
Yeah. Yeah, I don't see a hard fade on
the box. Yeah, that's that's the one that
we didn't get. There was said that we had to
suck up but soccer. Yeah, the pigeon house clear
this year we got a little bit of a better field.
The like the seven seeds getting an even like the Dolphins can be
played. Obviously Tyreke was fantastic.
This year in past years we've had like the Bears sneak in
instant Washington sneak in a couple of years ago and it's
like everyone's going to fade. That can imagine if like the
Steelers snuck in, they would be like 100% hard fade right onto
To that point, I think that Tyree kill might be a crazy good
play. Yeah.
Because people are going to want to fade him.
You know, they're gonna want to feed the Dolphins and just be
like, I know they're losing, but if you get a shoot out from that
game that not in the shootout but just like the Bills score
the Dolphins throw and, you know, Tyrese getting his Target
share. So, you know, he gets there in a
one and done he beats say Quan they lose, you know, he beats
God when they lose you're sitting pretty though.
One thing I would say and I can tell Zach this is his, he says
it's his first year playing like the Temptation is to just put in
the best players. I would say the best exercise
you can do is build out your Super Bowl bracket.
How do you think the Super Bowl is going to go just fill out
your bracket? And then pick the players from
those teams in reverse order, start with your Super Bowl
players, and start with your conference Championship, guys,
and reverse engineer it all the way down to the guys, you are
fading. I think that's the best way.
You can hand build teams and if you just rip teams in based on
name value or whatever, you're going to end up close to the
Boomer opto and you're going to be duped in, you're not going to
have a story in a path that can help you with.
And the biggest mistake you have to avoid is you can't fade two
teams playing each other in the first round.
There's yeah, this is the most fundamental, there's two team.
There's teams every year that like will take.
I don't know the there's not really a great game this year
where this might how go but they'll go suck up.
Dallas, T suck up. I was the, you can't saw fade
both sides of because one, there's too many teams are going
to play one game. One of those teams is going to
play two games and whenever teams play, two games is
typically not the kicker, the D. It's very unlikely to do the
kick or of the TV or you're really it's time one hand behind
your back because you're getting, you're guaranteeing two
games out of your kicker or D and and whatever the teams
playing, two games. That also means they won the
first game. We had a unique spot last year
where San Fran, one of the first game we played Dallas kind of
heavy on the other side. Of that game because everyone
was picking San Fran table said it was like being over played
San Fran wins. We had a lot of Robbie Gould but
we were like, they won in a way that we were actually like super
excited. There's a possibility, Robbie
Gould could actually be the right kicker into games.
Like it was like a crazy thing but in most cases that team
winning that first game is scoring enough points, that some
skill guys is outscoring the kicker by enough and then going
on in scoring some more points in the second game you just you
have to make sure you're getting a skill guy or Quarterback,
whatever a player from each of the games.
Yes. All right, let's transition to a
little bit more in the weed strategy.
Now that we kind of know the table Stakes here, what the
field is going to be gravitating to Sam.
I know you've put together some charts.
What angle. Are we looking at here?
Yeah. So what I want to look at here.
I so what this chart is showing Ying is projected ownership from
Pat's data and I think Pat maybe you updated these percentages
slightly but this, well, I've updated them as we've been doing
the show. So yeah, they're not.
Yeah, there are no more of this. Yeah.
They're less this.
Yeah. And and so that's what those
gray bars are. What the green like lines are.
There are the team odds to win the Super Bowl, just from 5:30
and average 538, and DraftKings, odds to get to the team.
Odds of winning. The Super Bowl and the basic
assumption I was making here, like I think that these things
should be fairly equal because in general, you want to pick the
quarterback on your team that wins the Super Bowl.
Obviously not always like you can pick a quarterback that
makes it to the Super Bowl or you can have some like and
losses or you can have scenarios like last year where you know,
Josh Allen is an optimal even though I only played two games.
It's not like a cotton fast, like hard and fast rule, but in
general, like, these things should be pretty close to equal,
which leads me to I think. Like the strongest take I have
on this tournament right now is that I think Brock / D is maybe
the best leverage play. If it's ownership is really zero
percent. The gal this is this is really a
okay. Yeah, I know.
I'll get some push back here. I thought we were starting slow.
Maybe terrible, take dirty but okay, listen, listen to me here
before you freak out. We need to get our brain clip.
I need a rocket ships right now. So I looked into this a little
bit. I yeah, I'll just backing up
with these numbers in Brock Curtis starts.
He's averaged over 20 fantasy points per game, McCaffrey for
the season is just under 20. So like I think the biggest push
back is like, okay, pretty should be really low on because
if C SF makes a Super Bowl, you should place the MC.
He's going to ask or Purdy, we've seen that, it's possible
that / you can outscore CMC. The 49ers like their big spike
games among the skill position players could just ping pong
throughout the playoffs, they have.
I you they have kid'll. They have Debo a lodging
Mitchell's back now, obviously cmc's they're like, I could see
a scenario where SF just rolls like they have really high odds
of winning, the Superbowl from Sports books and everything SF
could just roll and pretty good. Spread the ball out, ping pong
different spike weeks, different players and he's the quarterback
that you need obviously. Like, I don't think he should be
15 percent owned or whatever, but I think the fact that he's
zero percent owned, makes him a visit, it's a pretty good case.
Obviously, the question that will be so hard for people to
figure out, is, how do you get away from playing the QB, on the
AFC team you're picking him to play in the Super?
Yeah my food. That is my home.
Alan bro. Herbert I think the way yeah
yeah I think the way you play it right is With the Chiefs only
playing three games, and then you put Kelsey in there.
And Kelsey just smashes so much for the Chiefs that you need
him. Instead of Mahomes, I think you
play an SF Casey Super Bowl and play it that way.
But yeah, I know I did a version of your calculation.
Some, I just plug in 20 points per game for Brock / V and and
I've got a fish in ownership, which is a slightly different
calculation at about eight and a half percent.
So not zero. Like meaningly.
I think it'll be pretty. Close is different from 0.
What's that? You think we're pretty close to
zero? I just think it's crazy.
That, you know, the second favorite team in the NFC like,
just nobody's gonna play their quarterback even though he's
played, he's played well, he's played really well, I don't know
it and I will say it's a completely different Dynamic on
the underdog contest. But as chip see my guy here
points out, I mean, Brock / D, like this guy is getting steamed
up. So so much in you know, a A lot
of people take him as their second quarterback, if they take
a bye week quarterback, but it just, again, as a sentiment
indicator, the market is on board with Brock /, T in a San
Francisco run, and if that is not carrying over to any ffp
co-ownership, it's vaguely interesting.
And I'll quickly show made these charts at the team level.
So if you look at will same, how many of these are you doing?
Because I mean, to up it to whatever you're putting in oh
God. Yeah, 150 bucks.
Let's see, let me try to take our faces away so you can see
this little better. So this this is the San
Francisco opportunity. Share in the only games where
Debo CM C IU kid'll, have all played together like no, these
are Jimmy G starts Mitchell, only played three of these
games. But this is again just to
illustrate that like, when everyone's there, it's really
spread out obviously like CMC 22.
Sent Target share 48%. Rush are like that's gonna get
you a shit ton of points if they roll.
But like there's a lot of guys could go to even Juwan Jennings
popping out. There is like 13 percent Target
share like, this could be really spread out in a way that could
you get for pretty eye? The thing I struggle with is
that you probably are going against Josh, Allen Patra homes
in the Super Bowl, maybe even Joe burrow and to get the parley
of him out scoring MC. And then who's going to be
massive chalk as well. So there's a ton of teams you're
fading, that might have gotten a couple points on you in other
ways. And then you also are fading.
You know a lot of those teams are going to have that other
quarterback. He's got a he's a problem dog
down score. You need to see him, see injury
and him to spread it three games in a row.
But you're also a real dog to outscore.
The AFC quarterback who also is making a superb.
I'll run like I think you almost need.
I wonder if you almost need it to be like the Jags or the
Chargers or something. I agree that Kelsey Kelsey could
be the route but like I don't know even Diggs is sort of tough
to see. Yeah I think you have to play in
a specific way like with Kelsey or maybe if you really gal
braining like on the Jags making a run like with Ingram or
something but yeah I think it's like a specific scenario like
you have to think very carefully about how you play purdy-like
you probably want to Like feed the bills.
Somehow, you know you want Kelsey to just Ashland Smashley,
you need a nice high-end like yeah, you got to, you got to be
careful about it but just the fact that you had zero percent
projected ownership for him, and it sounds like you guys all
think he's going to be very, very low.
It's like, I don't think he should be 0 by any means.
Yeah. Well, I'd say in what I say
fade, the bills, maybe that just means a team where you have
Tyreke, so you're not necessarily like not picking A
bill but you're you're making sure you have a live dolphin
with with that something like that.
Sam. A lot of people in the chat are
talking about make to the Superbowl odds verse win the
Superbowl outside out that meaningfully changes things,
right? No like I yeah you could show it
like that. This way it's just kind of fun
because like both of the percentages should sum to 1 if
that makes sense. If you show it the other way, it
just like Doesn't like this way. Projected ownership pass out up.
200%, odds of winning. A Super Bowl has set up to 100
resent that just kind of look. Yeah, on a graph.
Yeah, we're trying to make the traps around here folks.
Yeah. All right.
Any other takeaways from this chart or anything else here,
Sam? I think the only other takeaways
is like, my home's versus Allen and hurts just like, if you're
picking between the, you have one line up, you want to go with
one of the chalky bees. Like, I would just go with my
homes especially like Mahomes first hurts.
If there's that discrepancy in ownership, you know, Mahomes is,
I think average, in terms of points per game, more than both
of those guys are actually slightly behind hurts.
But ahead of Allen by a little bit, so I don't know, he's right
there in terms of ceiling. So, if If, you know, I just
won't know what happened last year with them being projected
for more ownership than their odds to win the Superbowl might
actually capture some of that like three game or two game
outcome. Magic, you know what I mean?
It might, it might seem to me to my eye.
It actually looks like almost reasonable.
Although I do think you're right them at home is maybe a little
white. Well, yeah, I think that's fair
if you compare him to Alan but hurts also has the same by week
in July issue as the chief. So I'm just like, I don't really
get why hurt should be that much more of that.
I think that's a good plan my home.
Yeah. Yeah.
But Holmes does. And I think Mahomes will come in
like to light because Kelsey such an easy click, but we've
seen Kelsey cool off like me. Holmes could easily be the guy
you need on the Chiefs easily. Yeah.
It pat.
Give me one. Just thought because I saw this
comment from Dan about Dax ownership being high.
The thought I have and this is just anecdotal, is that I want
to say that when I see galaxies burning in the FPC contest, a
lot of times, it will happen at quarterback more than any other
position. Well, someone will tell
themselves a story. What if the Cowboys make the
Super Bowl is that that far-fetched know, like Neither
Galaxy bringing happens there and that's why I don't think the
DAC ownership is that crazy? Yeah, that's what that is.
It's four games, right? We talked about why Josh Alan's
going to be the Boomer a quarterback.
It's because he gets that fourth game and I think and look I mean
it's not a crazy thing. Tom Brady a couple years ago was
the right play because you got the fourth game, you got the
Super Bowl run out of the box. So, you know, I think it's a
reasonable play to go. You know, if Dallas is going to
make a Super Bowl running, actually want Dak, not CD, and I
get the leverage. And so, you talked yourself into
it, I think people do that a little bit with burrow and Dak.
I struggle to see people really go in there to, with Herbert so
much, but that's why he has a little bit as well.
All right, what do we got next? I got, I'm happy to switch to
Connors, trust me. He's got some trick.
Oh, yeah. What do you got for us?
That was a fun graph. How did we both cook it at the
same time? I think.
So, this is why happens when I let you Mom log into my stream
yard account. All right?
I don't, I'm not as fancy as sound without moving the thank
you. And so for those of you familiar
with a, so I've been doing these at libraries charts in the the
gpp this court for a while and I've used a lot of the same
concepts for this chart and it's the idea of Of.
Hey, so we got a patent ownership, pretty intuitive.
And then, what I try to do is I try to calculate what should a
fission ownership be. And this is that this is for the
Fades. And essentially, what I've use
is, I've used the 538 and probably odds and probabilities
and I calculated the odds of one and dones for teams.
And I've essentially calculated what the, what the Efficient
fade, ownership should be at from those odds and I guess as
expected, Miami, Seattle Baltimore, New York, Giants all
super high. And put you can see that these
things record zoom in on it, for the people, we can't see this Q,
have some have suffered a lot of cognitive decline lately.
Anyway, I mean There we go. Now, we're taking font size. 24,
baby. Yeah, Comic.
Sans would be a bonus but continue Oh sorry, didn't mean
to derail you, but continue hair.
And yeah, this is also Boomer the fonts, getting bigger.
Can't can't can't maintain two thoughts.
It was at this time every single time.
Increase the font on this computer Comic Sans is
happening. 20:23 is a year, right?
Draco's. Sun's gonna come in here and
help him Draco. Put it back on the rails.
Yeah, so obviously Miami, Seattle Baltimore, New York,
Giants Super High. They are the highest teams of
probability that at one and done, but the lesson from this
chart is that their probability is not so meaning meaningfully
different. from Tampa Bay, the Chargers even Jacksonville that
for example, Baltimore sixty percent ownership, Miami 50% and
there's like, there's a discrepancy there and I think
especially if this is the year of the the GAO brain, the the
fade ownership may not be as taught out as the kind of like
sexy skill position players and so even that the Ages, for
example, and if Eckler if he's the the Boomer out though and
it's honestly not that difficult to Envision a scenario where
accurate doesn't play that. Well, the, the Chargers lose,
they are the optimal fate and optimal fade, and similar ideas
for a lot of these teams. So you have yellow is the sum of
the fade leverage, all the teams after the first four, have
positive fade leverage, where the ownership, the the
Littlefield is going to fade them less than they should.
The first four teams are all going to be faded more than the
issue. Correct.
And let me just say that when I looked at last year's ownership
in my projections, I thought that Pittsburgh who is playing
Kansas City would be faded 54 percent total.
So this is this includes the hard phase, we don't select them
all plus kicker plus d so I said 54 Percent total paid.
They came in at 66%, I thought that New England would be faded.
69 percent of the time. They came in at 79%, I thought
that the Eagles would be faded 79% of the time.
They came at 88%. Those were the three highest
faded teams and I missed low on all of them.
I I think maybe the field is a little bit more Galbraith in
this year, but this is, if anything seems to be the spot
that the chalk is like condensing the most and in a way
That I think is like a little sneaky.
Like, when you're selecting the team, you're not necessarily
putting in, I'm fading this, like, you don't, you literally
don't you don't, when you build a lineup, you don't click a
fade. You just don't click anyone and
so it's less like top of mind. But you are essentially filling
out to additional line up spots, which are which are your face.
This is one of the most important parts of this whole
contest in my mind, which is people when they make the
lineup, want to give themselves multiple out so that when
there's teams that are going, That have a shot to win or they
feel more likely to have a shot to win at the Chargers or the
Vikings or what have you. They want to play one of the
players in case they win so they kind of want to plant both ways,
right? We talked about this with some
of the 45 games people want to play it both ways.
The reality of the contest is the thing that we know the
constraint is that 16s are going to lose in the first round.
And of those 16 s, we want our Fates to company on to be four
of those teams. It it's ultimately just going to
be of those six teens who were the highest-scoring skill
players, right? It can come from the really bad
teams pal, you're talking about Pittsburgh like Juju had a
monster game and the Pittsburgh one and done that Year, everyone
wanted to fade them because it looks like likely to win.
But ultimately, it's just a question of well even if we know
they're going to lose, can they outscore what other teams?
We don't know. We're going to lose but might
lose, we do know. Someone's going to Because we
don't know who it was going to lose in those other games and so
ultimately, it's becomes a one game versus one game scenario
but people play it through. They want to play it through
both sides of the games that are closer and not really recognized
that the constraint will be that 16s are going to lose.
And so and that's why I really point you should pick your
bracket. You need that you need to be.
You need to know who your pig because otherwise you'll go.
I'm not sure is gonna win. Are I'll go, I'll go say quanta
Jefferson and I'll have some of the best The Simplicity of the
contest is a trap into getting you to just be like, oh, this is
so easy, I can just pick the best place, but it, you have to
go down the rabbit hole and make that bracket and then make a
logical team that fits that bracket and that helps.
I think maybe with the other Temptation on this is to go to
off the board. You don't actually have to go
way off the board. What you have to do is there's
no cool. Khalil Shakur is not needed.
Pivots on what teams you're fading.
And you can still play the Good plays on the other teams.
But like, I can't remember who just said, I think Draco was
saying if you wanted to fade the Chargers.
For example, not a lot of people are going to feed them and if
they actually become the PHA team in a loss which is very
possible, you're going to be gaining on the field of time.
You can be playing Sake. One Berkeley or the stars from
Mark Andrews or what I've been working just as a monster game.
He's a great Flex for the Ravens but they're getting faded.
So Really because no one's picking them to win without
Lamar, maybe they do lose, but he catches 10 passes in a loss
from Tyler Huntley. But that's, that's great.
And now from now you have a flexibility of tight end, which
is the hardest position to fill this year.
Yeah, yeah, I mean, the other thing is, as well as whatever
canes lose their only going to play one game and so when it's
only one game the variance creeps up super high, right?
Yes exactly. Great point that Bones on makes
a great point, just play tyriq. I mean that's that's where I
said, Mark Andrews butt. Like people are going to fade
the Dolphins a ton. They have players that can score
in one game knowing even if you're playing them to lose in
one game, they can score enough points that you're fine, right?
Yeah, here's a. Here's a total gal.
Brain play in this tournament. Jill and waddle that's Cal
bring. So like if you're thinking like,
oh, I need to play this, I'm just truth this time.
No, he's could be right? This is from the man that 12
million dollars a year. Right, I'm sure five hundred
thousand dollar, fine. But here's you've gone.
You've gone to the far edges of the universe when you're playing
Jalen waddle and so like, don't don't talk yourself into Quest
Watkins or whatever, you know what I mean?
Like you don't talk yourself into Brock birdie or something
like that. Just like that one.
Yeah and it it goes to show. To like when you think through
like, we go through this in DFS, right where you're making,
you're looking at an optimal lineup in, you're sacrificing
projected points because you're getting a massive, massive
ownership discount and that you're normally in DFS, having
to give up way more projected points when your gal, bring in
this contest, you are not having to give up that much like, you
look at those one be receivers that we just mentioned waddle
Devon to Smith T Higgins. Like these guys are right there.
As far as one game ceiling, even over a Two game sample size.
It's when you start saying, hey, Bangles, go three games for
games. Yes, it's more likely that chase
out scores over a bigger sample size.
But if you're playing these guys at these guys, as one and done,
or just two games, these plays become incredibly attractive.
And then you start to think about the comfy one-and-done
clicks, the Barclays, right? The Chris Godwin's.
And to pass point, you look at waddle or even Tyree kill.
You might not even have to go to Waddle because Tyree kill is
going to be so Runner utilize. As a one-and-done play.
Yes, he's already a contrarian leverage play.
That's what models Gilbert and it's because you you're pivoting
off an already. Great leverage play.
Yeah. When you guys are doing this,
are you like calculating? I don't do you fast.
Like a common concept is cumulative ownership or sorry
product is product ownership, sprawling more relevant, are you
calculating product ownership and then comparing that to the
entries and saying, hey, if I have this product ownership, I
only expect like one of these lineups in the tournament.
You know what I mean? You can kind of do the math.
Map to we do cumulative and products last year, that's how
we're set up to do it. Okay.
Um, let's let's go ahead and do that.
I think we did this last year. Let's let's build a team here on
the Fly that we can lock in trying to put some of these
ideas on their feet here. Hassan you are, you know, one of
our guests of honor tonight. You know, you can pick someone
from the Boomer opto you can pick a leveraged way.
How do you want to Sod you muted to to remove this.
So I'm gonna get using a mad at me.
If I said Joe, I was hoping you'd say Joe Farrell.
You guys love me. Do it.
I was gonna say Brock pretty goddamn good.
Have to do that the quiet of your out, hope, Sam.
All right. Hassan gets bro.
Let's go to. Let's go to Jericho now.
X. Let me see.
So that's it influence you jerk. Oh why you think for a second?
I just want to say for the audience like the way that I
think about this immediately is like I don't want this to be now
like in Eagles team for example or a Bangles Eagles championship
because part of me thinks that, that would be more likely to be
hurt. Because you can rush for so many
touchdowns, maybe that's not right because he's not playing
for games. But so then if if that is right,
it pushes me towards like, okay, for playing, bro, then I kinda
want to play AJ Brown. He's not even on the same side
of the Racket. But it's, you're not to not to
influence you, but Ben's thinking about AJ Brown, I'm
trying to tell people but let's go.
Okay, speak on that. Well, it's like I said that
they. Yeah, they're going to be a
really common fade and kind of Walkers.
Obviously very talented running back.
They quote, they could lose and he still has like a really good
game that especially among other running backs is high enough,
relative to other running backs and the the other one and don't
teams. Is that it's in the optimal.
I'll back up Draco here to that, with everything on the line last
week, kind of Walker played, 90 percent of the stops for
Seattle, after playing like 50, 60 % the couple weeks before.
So, he's gonna be like the full time work horse, in this game.
So, I definitely see scenarios even where they lose it.
He just puts up a ton of points, maybe even catches for five
passes. I think it's possible.
It feels like a fun. Leverage boy.
I mean, it's a really tough to you.
People are not going to play that.
I will say I yeah I definitely have moments where I go to
contrarian and I think I think it's mine weird.
I think to your point about it being again I'm not trying to
influence people. My thought on this your point
about it being the running back points, mattering enough at that
position from a one and done it makes me want to not Flex a
running back, it makes me want to project a playoff where it's
a lot of receiver points through to the Super Bowl in the later
rounds. And you do want to running back
for one Of your two spots from a one and done.
Right? Like just mathematically.
Yeah. All right Sam it's been an
insane amount of steam coming in on the Kenneth Walker under
which by the way. So like this is going to be less
than 0.1% easy. Sam.
Oh sorry. Let's go.
Tyree kill.
Victim icon. You're just making the three of
us. Just eat.
Fucking. Could you guys got it all over
this? It's time.
Anyways, I think like Nala's gal, brain is kind of Walker but
I think like, you know, going with Miami and Seattle guys, and
then maybe hard fading, like a team like Dallas or the Chargers
like we talked about earlier, I think, is like, kind of a easy
way to get contrarian without actually sacrificing many
points. All right, I'll get us back on
track. I'll put Travis Kelce and grach.
You are. You're up next?
Who. Consiglieri.
I he is not chock, not even close, buddy, not even close.
Even if to a plays Tyree kill is not chock.
The chalk is not picking a dolphin.
There is, there is no Dolphins, anywhere near the chalk.
I'm gonna I'm gonna get us back on track as well.
Type concept and take digs. If we're playing Pearl, we're
playing Buffalo for two games. Probably digs digs Tyreke can go
either way frankly and still be digs stick.
Yeah. I think in a lineup like this
digs make sense. Yeah, I mean we're off the board
enough to take that Yen. Josh Allen is going to be pretty
it's not like dicks is gonna be massively chocolate.
Josh Almaty, alright. Got Pat's pick in back to do.
You want Pat? I'll go Eckler.
I actually Super Bowl run. It's kind of nice.
If somehow the Chargers can upset the Chiefs, And then maybe
we get Borough Eckler as our conference Championship would be
fun. Do you know what you're being
right now? Pat Where is he?
You're being a you're being a suck-up right now is like, oh
yeah, I'm gonna suck up by sticking the running back.
Who scored the most running backwards this year.
Yes. Alright, Hassan back to you. um,
There you go. My sorry.
My internet slugging. I was just curious.
I wanted to get your guys estate.
Christian car. Okay, we wait.
Just a just a bag of we do need to pick some Fades and we have
Eckler. So the Jags would be a team high
on the list of just, let's not. There's other teams we can do
not. Well, not necessarily your is
possible. It's possible.
You need to ask or say quandary, we could feed the Chargers
full-on. Well, I don't know what?
Yeah. Why don't we leave it for now
and see what happens in the end. We need to pick someone from the
Chargers in the Jags. We do have a Jag.
That's true. Yeah.
All right. We also don't have a viking
Giant yet. We need a viking a giant and we
need a cowboy. We don't have either.
We need to pick one, because we're fading the other.
So that's I think we should go. I think we should continue
eating shocking. Good Jefferson.
Yeah. I was just gonna suggest
Jefferson. We can definitely do him in this
lineup. Where is he?
He's all the way at the top there.
Yes. All right, so, for the audio
listener so far, we have jobber, oh, Kenneth Walker, Austin
Eckler CMC at running back wide receiver, digs Hill, AJ Brown,
Jefferson and Travis Kelce at tight end.
Honestly, again, this I think this is a good illustration of.
This is a fucking Galaxy brain lineup for this contest, and I
just listed off, like, what? Seven top 20 players in the NFL?
Yeah. Like that.
We just went to like the ESPN website and filtered for most
fantasy points and that yeah well because it yeah seriously
you go, Kenneth walk Kenneth Walker, you crazy.
All right. What do we want to do with this
cowboys Bucks game? Here we gotta pick one of them
and the flex and somehow for yeah, right.
I think I think we can go see I think we can eat CD on this land
line up, I'm fine with the back to Gretsch for kicker Defector
yeah. Let's make this a full fade well
now I can't make that decision on my own.
You could pick I guess the hard fade is your pick.
I don't see why you couldn't. You can pick the hard fate as
your help. The hard faithbox, the bar chart
suck up and Bucks deer off the table, Pat's up.
So what do we have? We need a Jaguar, we need a
giant giant, the giant or, or you make the real, are you going
to lock in the Ravens as your pick the hard fade?
Roll the clip, I kind of want to go Giants.
Kicker. All right, his name.
That's a good as a good play G batshit.
Yeah. Okay, so then that leaves us,
Hassan back to you to put a cherry on top, we can hard fade,
the ribbons. I think that they're not going
to have them are. Well, we go.
You don't want to play Ravens D against Borough.
No, no, no hard. Fate hard fate.
Yeah. Okay.
So you're using the hard fade. You were passing the buck to
Draco to choose between the Jags and the Tampa Bay.
Dear. Jefferson Kelsey Grammer.
Know, Jags defense is a sweet line up my my only two senses.
I think it's even better with Debo instead of CMC because I
think of the Walker to running back thing, fits pretty well.
But that's that's really I think I'd like it better with the MC
because we're already to burrow and we Like we just need Walker
to outscore. All of the other receivers Now,
too, because he's a flex. All in that you had overseen.
You're also playing. This aren't even out all the
Bucks. Receivers you need him down
score, right? Right.
Mark Andrews, you need him to outscore.
You know, everyone that we face right here.
I think I like CM C to D because you almost want to play this as
a Seattle upset with Walker, right?
You do. But I just feel like that's so
unlikely that I rather is going to be extremely top-heavy.
Comment about switching Eckler to Keenan Allen.
Is that a compromise or Well there you see here Keeta dalla
did help me with two billion dollars.
Yes although we are playing The jig's Faded.
So yeah I like the Eckler part of that.
Yeah kind of playing the running back in the wind.
Yeah I get what you're saying with DeBell.
I guess what? Like is the chances that the Did
the Seattle actually wins? Like, do you want to play it
that way? Or do you want to play the
chances that Kenneth Walker? Happens to outscore, Mike Evans,
Chris God, when it shakes, if you don't, if you don't have a
third running back, you can play it as if the running backs are
all all score really poorly for the whole contest, which doesn't
seem like, which is tough. Yeah.
It's tough. Especially, if you don't have
CMC and you're making that bet. I don't know, I guess I'm saying
about the CMC. Choctaw Kiba.
Yeah. I think I do think in my
preferred World you'd pivot ocular ocular and clerk to Kenan
or as the Aaron suggest here Walker to.
Yeah, see I think CM C DK is sort of where Connor.
Do you have any thoughts? You were the one who selected
Walker here. I don't wanna leave if we're
gonna do that because lock it's going to go really low and as
well. I like that.
I like I like it quite a bit do. Connor lock is five.
Yeah I personally think the Walker DK Metcalf like
projection is probably super close and so I mean I honestly
don't mind it and if kind of feels like a similar play in
that like you're picking you're saying that a Seahawk is going
to score good points and and I guess if you're feeling more
comfortable, And it kind of game trip that Seattle get blown out
or early lose comfortably DK, DK.
Obviously, feels more comfortable in that and I do
think though, that one thing with the game script is that
it's not one for one like you, you get, we're running back to.
Yeah. That's true.
He's course. It's true.
I do think though may be the tiebreaker is that people are
not going to use Seattle, like, people are going to be hard,
fading, Seattle. So, You can pretty much pick
whoever you want and get the same leverage and you can
basically pick your preferred games correctly.
I think lock, it'll be someone that I'm arguing for pretty
heavily this week in our stuff just as like a Arbitrage version
of Devante Smith and T Higgins. And unlike those guys there's a
really good chance. They only play one game.
So you just need locket who scores long touchdowns to score
a long touchdown. Yeah.
I do think reeks ownership will be dependent on to a status if
to a doesn't play, he will be much, much lower than 30%.
What do you have? What do you every cat right now?
We did get a little chalky just because of the early Walker
pick, I'd like yeah. Girl in Brentwood what do we
have Borough at Pat 1313? But I should also mention so pat
pat. When are you going to post?
Because you are for any Discord. Pat will show.
Share a spreadsheet with his ownership projections and I will
say, cuz, you know, Pat won't brag for himself because he has
enough bragging to do these days.
But his ownership projections last year were just absolutely
dialed in plastic. Yeah.
There was a buffalo and Debo that was the big one, but you
are a little low on Depot and fournette.
Got ruled out, very surprisingly for basically, everyone in the
contest and everyone scrambled to get for a night out of their
line of sight, very last minute, right?
And so your number was high on him in the end and it changed
some of the Bucks stuff and some of the math.
Yeah, running backs. There was some Fallout from the
fournette, be a novel high, but your numbers were awesome and
you tweak them throughout the week as we can draw cord.
You think through it more. So if anyone like pulls them or
copies them, make sure to check back in.
Yeah, so I'll make if you only but just make a copy of the
sheet and you know, you'll have them and then I just copy and
paste. Every time I make an update,
I'll just paste it in here. So it'll just stay updated.
I will I just want to know. Gypsy, large comment isn't
pivoting from DK to lock it. Like pivoting.
Um, Tyreke to water, which he said, was too much, gout to be
clear. I do not think Waddles too much.
Gal. I just think that that's sort of
the edge of the universe. And if you're beyond that edge,
you probably have gone too much. Gal, yeah, yeah.
If you're playing River craft or whatever the fuck, his name is,
you probably have taken too much Ayahuasca while building these
lineups here. So we will be back tomorrow
night. I don't know if Figured out
exactly what we're going to do. But we are going to continue to
dive into this contest. We will be back then on Friday
night for our annual drunken shit.
Show with Dink and Leone to finalize our lineups.
And like Pat said, if you guys are YouTube members, you get
access to the private Discord, will Pat will share those
ownership projections. Highly recommend hopping in that
Discord. Everyone on this show has access
in there. It's very fun time.
Steamed hams mr. Hassan always in there, mixing
it up and yeah, any other final words from you guys here before
we sign off, What a great contest.
This is great Kanye, we play, truly God's game.
We try to make, will try to make one line up in every pick.
We have legs eight ways, we can go, it's so fun.
Yeah. Did the Simplicity is the, the
best part? It's a puzzle.
And it's fun. Yeah:.
So you become a YouTube member, and then you join the deposit
Kingdom Discord, which I have the link down below and then
there's instructions in an FAQ, you sync your YouTube account
with the Discord. And then unlocks the channel.
If you have issues, you can tag me in there, CB is already in
the mix. Feel free to just tag me in the
Discord. I'll make sure you guys get
squared away, but all the instructions are there.
We will be back tomorrow night at our usual time, 9:15 p.m.
Eastern. Thank you to Draco and Sam.
Who did great work for us all year on stat chasing.
Thank you for Hassan who heads to the Sizzler buffet for
multiple meals to do. Research on the Boomer opto and
we appreciate you guys will see. You guys are show me the open a
PDF. Research on the Boomer opto and
we appreciate you guys will see. You guys are show me the open a
PDF.