All right, we are back. We did one of these before the
NFL draft, just selecting these players based on their projected
draft capital and their profiles.
Well, now we have the landing spot, so we had to get a crew
together for a post NFL draft dynasty Superflex Titan premium
rookie mock draft to help us out.
We got the late round QB JJ. We got Andrew Cooper I believe
making his ship chasing debut and of course Dwayne McFarland
from Fantasy Life, joining myself, Pat, Karen and Jacob
Sanderson. This is ship chasing.
Let's do it, Pat Fryer, Helmo. This is what?
This is what I'm hot. Anita hand job.
Fix your side for. Jamar alpha play Chase.
Are you kidding me? You.
Can't handle the heat. It looks like we're finally at
this point too, right? All right, we are here.
Ready to go. Let's go around the horn real
quick, Coop. Is this indeed your first ship
chasing appearance? First time on ship chasing.
I was on your other show where you made me drink a bunch of
milk and like go up in my attic looking for stars that you don't
do that on this one. Yeah, if you want to drink milk,
you're welcome to, I thought. That was like more your idea.
I think the wheel just kind of gave you the nudge.
I don't think, I don't think any of it was my idea, brother, but
I'm happy to be here and I appreciate you throwing a little
tight end premium on there so we can find our way through 2 full
rounds of these clowns, right? Yeah, yeah.
That wasn't even just for you. That was literally we need, I
mean, we might even have to go like Punter Premium just to make
this this thing more interesting.
But Dwayne, can we find something to love in this 2026
rookie class? Yeah, look, we can always find
something to love. There's just less to love, you
know? I mean, but we can find
something, you know? And look, the NFL draft probably
for you guys too, like it's my favorite time of the year.
It's like this. And then like, you know,
probably the weekend before the season starts when I'm trying to
pack in like, you know, 30 drafts.
Like I, I just love those two times.
And then the unveil we get in the early part of the season.
So well, it's not a great class. Like we still have fun with it
man. Yup, JJ, we, we talked a little
bit on After Dark the other night.
You're coming off of a draft guide update.
Are you in the the throes of any rookie drafts yourselves right
now? Yeah, lots of them.
And I got to just thank David Kitchen for all the help with
the prospect guide this year. Yeah, he he told you you had to
name drop him within the first. Jacob, I thought you were going
to call out sick today. Parentheses, squirrel incident.
But you are here. Thank you for battling the
elements to continue to broadcast.
Look my my window is completely locked shut.
I sleep in fear of death at this point in this apartment.
And every, every day that I get to live is a blessing.
But yeah, the, the squirrels are, are coming to get me.
It's been two straight days of squirrel invasions.
Yesterday's was was unsuccessful.
But, you know, they, they tried their best and I think they're
going to try again as soon as possible.
Jacob's living through like a final destination movie
multiple. He was in a cartel war like 2
months ago and now he's been squirrels attacking him.
Good point. It's it's.
Tough man like Elise, Elise. Elise got Gavin McKenna.
That's the only thing I can cling to is as like we as I
battle the squirrels and cartel. I will just say that Jacob, I'm
very happy for your safety, but if a squirrel had jumped on you,
I would have told Zach Lanars to literally stop everything he's
doing and add that clipped new ship chasing montage.
I would have been like, that has to be in there right fucking
now. So like someone asked Frankie to
chat ass. Have I ever heard of a screen?
And and that's a great question, Frankie, because first of all,
like Vancouver in a pre global warming era, like basically
didn't get warm. So no one has air conditioning
here. It's like an air conditioning
free city basically outside of very, very new buildings.
And when I moved in, I asked, it's like, hey, like I'm going
to need to open the windows in here a lot because there's,
there's no air conditioning. Like what happened to my
screens? They must be missing.
And the building manager was like, no, we don't have any in
this building. Like you just kind of open the
windows and hope for the best. So like, yeah, it's, it's, it is
a building that's screenless. And so like I'm, I'm kind of
camping in my apartment every night.
I saw you jump on on social media but I didn't have the all
the contacts but now I understand there was not a
screen there so that makes. More like that window dude.
Live a little man. Give the kids some contact.
Yeah, look, look at Jacob. He's got, he's got the blinds
drawn. He's Jacob.
'S about to be. Jacob's about to be Snow White
in a couple of weeks. Jacob was just taking a nap
before. You know you know your building
manager has screens in his place, right?
Yours is the one part. But you sacrificed you to the
squirrels, dude. That's right.
Yeah. Pat, you, you witnessed that
live. Your reaction was pretty good.
Shops was my favorite because he just looked like he was looking
at like hockey, you know, NFL draft order and this is just.
Kind of clicking through some some pics on slow dress, yeah.
All right, let's, let's get into it.
We are going to do, we're going to do 24 picks.
So each of us are going to get 2 picks in round, 1-2 picks in
round two. It is tight in premium.
It is super flex and your boy has been deving hard.
I mean, call me David Kitchen. Look at that web.
App here. We do have a randomized button,
so once I randomize it, this will be the order it will just
snake. We're not doing the thing where
it's one of us ends up with four picks in a row, so it'll be
123456 you. Did lock yourself as the 101
like Davis did? No, see, I did a better
randomized button than Davis. Davis quit on his Deving and I
actually saw this one through. So without for further ado,
here's the randomize button. Jacob Sanderson draws the one O
1 here. That's boring.
It's, I mean like if you're in a real rookie draft, you're pumped
to have the one O 1 because it's so much better than every pick.
But if you're doing content like, there's nothing worse than
than having the one O 1. Well, do you want to?
I know you've already spilled like 20,000 words worth of ink
on on this draft class, but do you want to say anything that
hasn't been said about Jeremiah Love?
Yeah, I mean, I will be taking Jeremiah Love and he, I think
he's fantastic. I think the most interesting
debate on Jeremiah Love is like, would you prefer him or Gente in
dynasty today? I think that's like a more
interesting conversation than comparing him with, you know,
Tate or Mendoza or Tyson. So but I'll, I'll take him.
I'm pretty honestly, I'm pretty excited about him this year,
maybe compared to the market. I think there's a lot of
opportunities for him to have a lot of receiving production in
Arizona, just given there's not really any other receiving back
on the roster. A lot of pocket quarterbacks are
probably going to be trailing a ton.
So yeah, probably the only guy in the class that you're you're
locking in as a very major contributor.
Yeah, he, he projects like, well, like it's because of the
receiving stuff Jacob's talking about.
I only have him at 58% of the attempt.
So like I'm assuming like the OR sorry, I've got him at 63% of
the attempt. So I'm assuming Al Jare gets
like 30%. But I'm definitely giving the
receiving work to love at 58% route participation.
He's at a 12% target share, which could be modest like to be
honest, which we try to project at the median.
So then the model can handle the ceiling and floor calculation.
So I'm I'm with Jacob like he projects still in half PPR as
the running back 15 and like you know, you get him at the end of
round two right now in underdog. Yeah, and a lot of rookies like
the problem they run into is they can't pass block.
Like Travian Henderson had that problem, but this dude literally
never once allowed a sack in college so I really don't see
that's going to be a problem for him either.
JJ if you were to build-a-bear case, like, how does this look
bad in hindsight outside of injury?
I mean, I think there's a possibility that the target
chair isn't as strong. I mean, I'm not projecting that
per SE, but you know, it's a, it's a brand new off.
I feel like the way that people are viewing Arizona is kind of
skewed at the moment just because it's almost as if
there's no consideration of it's a completely different coaching
staff and new coaching staff. And you know, like there's a lot
of assumptions about passing volume, for instance, when they
led the league in past attempts last year and such.
But yeah, I mean, like, they should be in a negative game
script and such. And that that should help
Jeremiah Love. But yeah, I mean, the, the the
bear case is that the offense is just absolute trash and Tyler
Algiers taking all the goal line work and the target share isn't,
you know, in that like 1213% range and it's instead in like
the 9% range or something. And that's how, you know, he
doesn't live up. But but I, I also think that
people are, are gonna comp this to the Ash and Genti situation
last year. And realistically, you know,
Genti versus like ADP expectation played a little bit
below expectation in terms of his points per game.
But where you're getting Jeremiah love, if he were to get
Ashton Gente production, that's actually not bad with where he's
getting. And that's, that's probably more
of like a median outcome for him.
Yeah, Pat, anything else on Love?
No, yeah, I, I think JJ kind of laid out the bear case pretty
nicely. I I think, you know, he is more
of like an explosive type of like when you think about how
does he, how is he kind of different as a running back?
It's going to be explosive runs and receiving and kind of fun
stuff. He's less like Gente is this
kind of just like workhorse. Like even if the situation goes
bad, he's just going to get all the touches.
So, you know, he is like, like, I guess you can compare it to
kind of like Breece Hall, you know, where you're sometimes
you're just like, God damn it, this is like, I know this guy's
good, but this is not fun. So I still think he'll be like,
OK. But yeah, it just, it is, it is
a bit of a bummer that he landed here instead of somewhere where
we could actually get excited about him, like elevating an
already good offense. The Cardinals don't give and get
in the Flack for being one of the worst organizations in the
league in all the major world. Right?
Like literally have been a team for 100 years and are tied for
the fewest playoff wins. It was it.
Was a horrible, It was a horrible draft pick.
It was a horrible pick, yeah. Just a disgusting decision.
They're tied with the Tech team for the fewest playoff wins.
The Texans became the team in 2010.
We all laughed when that report came out that the Cardinals are
considering because we're like, this is the worst kind of trade
language rumor ever and they're fucking serious.
Friedman hasn't projected the lowest for in the in his game
model for win total, he's got him at 4.7, which is.
Yeah. I mean, I mean, I believe.
It which makes it hard to move down the pass rate JJ like.
The apparent quarterback one is Jacoby Brissett, who's like
currently having a holdout like have you is there a worse
quarterback situation in NFL history than our plan A is
Jacoby Brissett? And he's not even like willing
to show up to camp like it's it's a remarkable situation.
Who would and I mean to the to the pass rate point.
I, I agree that they're like PROE is probably not gonna be
high. I would even say it's probably
gonna be negative. I think it's.
Probably the biggest reason that their pass rate was so high last
year. And I get the defensive things
swinging year to year and there's averaging.
And I'm not saying we should copy and paste what happened
last year, but a lot of the systemic aspects to that were
just their defense was complete trash and they spent their day
one and two picks on a running back, a guard and a backup
quarterback. So like, I don't think their
defense is going to be meaningfully improved.
They have the same coordinator too.
So it's probably still going to be a bottom 5 to 10 defense even
if you get a little bit of averaging out from what it was
last. Year Percent percent three, 450
yards. In that one game, they lost by
three scores. Yeah, it's, yeah, it's Mike
Lafleur, a head coach and you got Hackett right at OC.
So Lafleur is going to be calling the plays.
So he's he's going to want to be more of like a pass balanced run
balance offense. He's just going to get forced
out of it. I think the best thing you can
say about this is what other team in the NFL could actually
give Jacoby Brissett leverage? Like is there another team where
he would have this? Yeah.
Such a good point. Yeah.
It is funny though, because like as much as we're kind of we kind
of shifted into the bearish realm, but like he's clearly the
one O 1. I don't think I'm like, I'm not,
I'm taking him first every time and I like I like him in best
ball. Like like you guys were saying,
like he he probably pays off even with the Genti level
performance in the I think he's more early third round now.
So it is like this stuff I think is being priced in in best ball.
And then it's sort of like the class is too weak to really have
like anyone flip him for the one O 1 and dynasty.
Yeah, yeah. All right, I will.
I have the second pick. This is where it at least starts
to get a little bit interesting. And it's funny because I've even
just today for tomorrow's Fantasy Life newsletter, I'm
writing about Jordan Tyson versus Carnell tape more through
the lens of of redraft, but I do think I I'm a bit of a Tyson bro
now. That's gonna be my pick there.
I think just like the the systemic risk of Cam Ward being
awful in that offense sucking is kind of concerning.
I I do want to get Dwayne's thoughts.
I know he has Tate projected for a 20% target share this year.
But I do think there's also risk that Wandel Robinson's still
gonna earn targets. Calvin Ridley's gonna earn
targets. What if the thesis that he has
this clear, clear runway to an alpha target share isn't as
clean? I just look at the Saints
offensive environment, get a little more excited about what
Tyson could do. And I've never been too scared
off by, oh, there's Crystal Lobe there, number one, he's the
number 2, yadda, yadda. I just think that offensive
environment, they had fourth highest neutral pass rate last
year. I think I just want in on Tyson
here but curious what you guys think.
Yeah, like I'll just say real quick, like as far as like this
is the pick I would have made. I would have taken Jordan Tyson
as well. And if I didn't, I probably
would have gone quarterback. But like with Tate, like you
said, like he played in a much better receiver room at Ohio
State than he'll probably ever play with in the NFL.
So we don't really know, like his untapped, like, target
ceiling. But yeah, I've got him at 20%.
But with the Saints, it's just like, I like Kellenmore.
I like the pace that he wants to run his offense.
Now, they did that Oscar Delp. You know, they've already got
Juwan Johnson. I think they brought in another
tight end as well, no offense. So I don't know, maybe they want
to run more of this 13 and 12 stuff, but at the same time,
like I just see the Saints as a very highly consolidated attack.
I think it's Crystalave and it's Jordan Tyson.
And then we just hope that Tyler Shuck is like just, and I took
Tyler Shuck down on the projections.
I think he averaged 260 yards per game last year.
I've got him at 2:30. So slightly over the league
average last year of 225. So I'm already being sober
minded about Tyler Shuck and Jordan Tyson, though.
I just even though he's got Crystalave there, I just think
they're it like, I mean, Devon Valet, Juan Johnson, you know, I
mean, I just I like the Tyson pick.
And Kellen Moore's offense has kind of been that right?
Like even with the Eagles where they didn't run a lot of two
tight end sets, the wide receiver 3 was just nothing.
Like if you're trying to replicate what they did when
they won the Super Bowl, you go out and you have two high end
wide receivers, you bring in a running back like they did and
you run through your top few guys and hope nobody gets hurt,
which is exactly what the Eagles did.
So that's part of why I have Tyson there as well.
I mean, then the draft capital is not materially different from
4:00 to 9:00, right? It's decent if you use draft
capital value. I know JJ used Chase Stewart's
stuff as well. Like it's, it's, it's pretty
significant actually. Yeah, I mean real life, but for
Dyna. Yeah, I mean, like I, I, I'll
say this like Tyson, despite having the difference in draft
capital and you know, I, I have my own formula that I use for
the model itself, for the ZAP model.
But despite the difference, the ZAP model likes Jordan Tyson as
the wide receiver one in this class.
It's, it's actually by like it's not like a massive margin, but
it's a decent margin. Like he he has to me the best
age adjusted production of any wide receiver in this class,
99th percentile breakout score, which is my adjusted receiving
yards per team pass attempt number to adjust for age and and
schedule strength. And then you just look at his
like journey throughout his collegiate career.
Like he goes to Colorado as a freshman, 9 games played, leads
that team in receiving, hurts his knee doesn't play that next
year. Then the following year,
probably the best individual season of any wide receiver in
this class, that third season of his and then last year was fine
until that hamstring started to to act up.
So to me, like if you if you sort of combine what the data
says and then with like some of the stuff that Harmon does with
the reception perception, like Tyson is the intermediate, like
zone beater and Alave is the man beater.
And that combination could seriously be lethal.
And then on top of that, you know, you have the Kellen Moore
factor of every basically every offense that he's coached
outside of that that year in Philly has ranked top five in in
plays per second. And so seconds per seconds per
play, seconds per play, right? It would be that, that, that
order seconds per play. Yeah, Yeah.
But so he's he's running at a fast pace.
There should be a lot of volume. You know, in general, even if
they want to be relatively like balanced, like there still
should be a lot of volume for the for the passing attack and
it's consolidated. So like all of that combined.
I like the landing spot. I think Jordan Tyson is I, I, I
see him as like just as good as like a Garrett Wilson type
prospect, like from within the ZAP model and stuff.
I don't think this is like there's been a lot of talk
about, Oh, there's only wide receiver twos in this class and
stuff. Like I think Jordan Tyson's
really, really good. And I think the draft capital
just sort of solidified that stance after we, you know, him,
him going top ten in the draft. Yeah, and the rookie supermodel.
So like his comps, 88% of them became wide receiver threes
within their first three years, 75% became top 24 and one out of
three became top 12, which the model does a lot of the same
things like what J JS talking about.
Our models are slightly different, but yeah, I'm, I
think there's a really good range of outcomes on Tyson.
Strongly agree with JJ and Dwayne on Tyson.
He was he would be my pick at one O 2 as well.
I'm just curious for you guys like because his ADP is the one
O 4 if say like you guys probably have lives so you're
you're probably in fewer dynasty leagues.
But let's just like imagine you were a hypothetical person who
was in like 60 dynasty leagues. Like how, how would you allocate
your exposures between because I have Tyson higher, but I'm not
like so confident about it that I'm like, I want 13 Jordan Tyson
shares and 0 Carnell take shares.
Like what would be the like, what?
How would you allocate that in a situation where you're a little
bit ahead of the market on a guy who you know by ADP is more
actually likely to fall to you to three or four if you wait for
him sometimes? I I would personally go like
6040. I think Jji, don't know, you
might be more aggressive. The rookie supermodel actually
graded Carnell Tate as the wide receiver one, but I put Tyson as
the top guy in my personal rookie ranks.
So I think they have a very similar range of outcomes.
But I'm with you, Jacob. Like it's not like where I'm at
a point where I'm like going to make a massive stand.
Like I would definitely lean to Tyson, but probably more like
6040. I'd say I'd say probably 7030
ish something, something along those lines.
And I'm seeing people like I've seen the argument that like I'm
even seeing in chat, like people saying that Tyson with no
quarterback is risky, like Tyler Shuck was better than Cam Ward
last year. Like you, it was by by a.
Lot. Yeah.
And, and, and I trust like the nice part about about Tyson is
that we have a coach that we would assume is gonna be there
at least the next couple of years, right, where there's a
lot more ambiguity with what's going on in Tennessee right now
than than what we see with Tyson.
I actually think there's a more stable situation with Jordan
Tyson than there is Carnell Tate.
So that just that just adds to the lighting spot factor.
Yeah, like and we think. Definitely on that point, like,
yeah, Kellen Moore is a is a huge plus.
Like he's, he's a high paced guy.
His pass rate can fluctuate, but you're always getting a, a boost
to total pass volume just from the raw plays perspective.
I think he designs his offense really well.
He interchanges guys across formations into favorable
alignments really effectively. And yeah, my, my answer to that,
I do target exposures in my rankings.
So I have I have a 2X target exposure on Tice that I have .75
on Tate and and .25 on Mendoza. All right, Pat, this is a good
segue to you because as Chris was saying, are you the only
Tate over Tyson guy? You are on the clock.
So if that's the direction you're going, you can make the
the case he should be too. Yeah, I was actually happy not
to get to because I would have taken Tate, which is what I've
done, I think. And every time that we've done
one of these shows I've had, I've had the number two pick,
but happy to get a little more value because I think, you know,
Tyson's a I'm kind of the other way where I like Tate over
Tyson, but I don't want to just only have Tate.
I think Tyson is a a strong pick as well.
But yeah, I mean, I think my thing with Tate is that like
when you look at his kind of the the fundamentals of his profile
coming out of Ohio State off of this really impressive junior
season, both efficient and productive alongside Jeremiah
Smith. And then he gets drafted.
So there there's your kind of like, well, that's a pretty high
hit rate right there. And then he gets drafted 4th
overall and he's slotted in as the clear #1 outside wide
receiver for this team. With a young quarterback with
with dayball running the offense, there should be plenty
of pass volume. There already was pass volume
there. He he has a chance, I think to
to earn a lot of targets. And you know that he didn't have
like a really awesome targets for out running college.
But you know that I think that's at least from a ceiling
perspective, that could very much be because he was playing
alongside Smith and he's in a much easier situation now in
terms of earning targets. And from the route running
perspective, like Matt Harmon's write up on him and and charting
was very, very bullish, especially because it kind of
matches what he was doing. Like he was an intermediate and
deep target earner in college. And that's what you look at like
where he was earning targets, how what types of routes, who's
earning targets on beating man coverage, playing on the
outside. It all lines up is is a guy
who's like, I think going to be pretty good in the NFL.
You do have like some concerns maybe about what the ultimate
ceiling is with him. Like is he more so he's top out
is kind of like a Pickens the Olave type of guy where he's
like probably best suited as A1A or maybe even A1B.
Yeah, I think that's definitely possible.
Maybe even the most likely outcome.
But he gets put into a scenario where like, I don't know, well,
Jabe was getting drafted in the late 2nd or the early 3rd of
best ball drafts after his rookie season.
Like I think it's sort of like something you figure out after a
couple years if if maybe he's capped, he's he's in position to
really hit the ground running from producing within the
offense. I've got my concerns about Cam
Ward. That would be one reason I think
to go to Tyson because because the Ward floor is is pretty low.
They could need to reset here like after this year.
But yeah, I'm I'm happy to take happy to take Tate here.
I think there's basically a little bit of a tear break after
this. Yeah.
So like in the rookie supermodel, which like it's,
it's obviously calculating a little bit different than what
JJ is doing. But like their production
rating, which normalizes for, you know, which years they did
what, right. The earlier years get more
weight in the model and the actually there's a negative
correlation right, in years four and five with future production
in the NFL. So they hardly get any weight,
but it also adjusts, you know, for teammates.
JJI believe yours does as well. It accounts for the strength of
schedule. But when you put it all
together, I mean, Jordan Tyson has the highest production
rating in the class of all the round one guys at 86.
But but Carnell Tate, after adjusting for all those things,
it's an 84 like it's just two spots lower.
So I I think these guys are in the in the same tier.
Like I said, I would go 6040 Tyson, but I I'm I'm with you,
Pat. Like I, I think Carnell Tate's a
really good prospect as well. And I will say like the rookie
supermodel basically says these guys should probably like have
been like picked 10 to 15 in a normal NFL draft.
We didn't have a lot of blue chip players that.
Probably would have been in a normal NFL draft.
Yeah, right. And and who knows, maybe this is
going to be a trend going forward as players get paid to
stay and all this other stuff. We'll see what happens with all
of that. But so like I've been thinking
about, I'm interested in hearing JJ's thought not to get too
nerdy, but I've been thinking about like a good way to like
normalize draft classes. But to do it, you would need to
be able to grade all the other positions and how good they
were. And then like each draft class,
you know, you would have your model with an account based off
of that. Like this was a real thought of
as a really strong draft class and a wide receiver went forth,
right. That would be worth more than
carnal Tate going forth like in this draft class.
So it the the model doesn't know that.
And so that's why whenever you just look at the raw model
scores like and I look at it, it kind of bothers me.
I'm like, man, Carnal Tate, like shouldn't be next to some of
these other names, you know, in the model, but I can't really do
anything about it right now. And the the same thing for
Jordan Tyson. I really like them.
But in in normal drafts, they would have probably gone like 10
pick 10 to 15. That's where the supermodel
would have basically, they would have evened out and like there
wouldn't have been a big delta between their draft pick and
their. I will say it'd be fair to Tate
though, like when in the early, because at one point this was
seen as like people were excited about this quarterback class for
a minute and then none of the quarterbacks came out and stuff.
So but like early on, you know, in the fall, Tate was talked
about as a top ten NFL draft pick.
Like he was there was never a point where like he was in the
20s and then he kind of jumped up to 4 because you know,
there's just no one else. Like he was always considered
one of the top prospects in this class.
I do think in like another class, like in the in the
neighbors Harrison class, like it's possible he goes after
Rome. You know, he he might be the
wide receiver 4IN that class, but it's I don't think he's I
don't know it. It's like semi fraudulent in
terms of the the number four overall.
I don't, I don't think he's like.
I think the bigger issue. Behind Brian Thomas in that
class or something. Like that, I think the bigger
issue isn't so much the other receivers in the class, it's
just the other positions without the quarterbacks and without
like, you know, the offensive lineman, you know, we didn't
have one to go to like pick 9 or whatever.
So it was just kind of a weird class overall.
It was a weird. Class where everyone agreed the
best players were like a running back, a linebacker.
Right. Like, it's exactly, yeah, yeah,
the NFL just threw their hands up and they're like, we know
that we don't really want to pay these kind of players, but we're
going to lock them into big contracts.
The thing with the modeling though, with like, you know,
because I get the question all the time of like, well, what if
this draft class is different? So draft capital doesn't mean
the same thing that it did, you know, in another class or
whatever. I would argue though, that the
application of what we're using these for generally is just for
comparing within the same class, right?
So like like, yes, it's nice that it would be nice to have a
more apples to apples comparison.
But in the end, like when we're comparing these players, we're
comparing them against other player.
Like if you were to compare across classes, we know than NFL
data is going to be more predictive anyway.
And so we might as well lean on that a little bit more similar
to like the like, maybe you could argue with like the Gente
versus Jeremiah Love thing, right?
Like, like those fringe cases are still going to happen where
it's like we didn't learn quite enough about Gente last year
necessarily to know for sure. But realistically, like, you
know, how frequently are you making the the the argument of
one player to the next in terms of like their prospects score?
You know that that's kind of maybe it's a cop out for me to
be lazy and not really figure throughout the normal I think of
the pics, but. To use a phrase from this show,
that's fair, I mean. Sorry, that's actually only on
EDP chasing. We're on ship.
Chasing, I knew I was sorry off brand, my bad, Jacob.
But I think where it does matter is like when you're comparing
the historical classes and a lot of people like use the models to
decide like how they want to think about it.
It's still a factor in how they think about a multi year outlook
on the player. So it's more just from that.
But I do agree like for just doing the class stuff like for
what we're doing today, it's not as big of a deal.
It's more it also like impacts the way the comps work in the
model historically. And so when you're trying to
find the right comps. I will say I took AI took a very
non scientific approach to looking at it and I just went
back through the last few years since 2020 and pulled up when
the first like pure blocking tight end was taken right.
The most obvious definite blocking guys like the Darnell
Washington's tip Ryman's every class go back through 30 pass
catcher, right 30 wide receivers, running back, tight
end, quarterback 2436312339 Like it's always 30 or so guys get
taken before A-Team finally says like, OK, let's just take a
blocking tight ends. This year it was 14.
But that's also because the NF LS latching.
Yeah, the NF LS into. That now?
Yeah, and, and they're latching onto it in a like a dumb way
too. Yeah, they're overdoing it.
Guess what? You also have to have talented
players and like be able to be in good.
Game Nate Nate Forkitcher is not going to adjust the model.
That's right. Insane pick.
And the The thing is, I, I had somebody argue, they were like,
oh, Nate. Harling Pine.
Well, they say he's not just a blocking cut in after him.
It went a quarterback. Max for those people.
And stay. Around Yeah sorry like sorry bro
like he has like 20 career catches and went to 478 like.
Sorry I. Don't know what.
I don't know what we're doing here.
All those guys never end your blocking tight end.
I do want to address some of the chat stuff.
Sorry, just really quick. The chat's doing a whole shock
Ward debate in the comments. And my angle on that would be
like, if you want to make the case that you think Cam Ward
will be better than Tyler's track, I think that's
reasonable. I'm, I'm probably the Cam Ward
optimist in the ship chasing universe.
Honestly, I think the one we're discussing, they're wide
receivers. The floor is just way more
relevant element in the ceiling. Like I don't really care that
much. I don't care as much if a
fantasy wide receiver has a good quarterback or an elite
quarterback. Like I'm if you told me my my
quarterback is Jared Goff, you know, for the foreseeable future
for my fantasy wide receiver. Like I'm pumped with that
outcome. It's really you just don't want
like a disaster artistic quarterback who's not
consistently converting drop backs into catchable targets
because there's so many sacks, there's scrambles, there's
throwaways. So to me, it's like if the Chuck
has already has a demonstrated floor of being a reasonable
passer for wide receiver fantasy production and Ward has not.
So I I view that specific angle of the floor being a point in
Tyson's Corner, even though it wouldn't necessarily surprise me
if Ward winds up being a better player.
Yeah, I'm happy to make the like to me is someone who doesn't
really believe in Ward. I'm kind of happy to be able to
bet on Ward through Tate and then, you know, I'll take some
Ward words actually like reasonable enough and best ball.
I don't, I don't think it's bad, but like I'm like, great, I I
believe in Tate. So if Ward's good, that'll help
Tate and I'll benefit that way. And it's more, it's more of the
ceiling side of it. But yeah, I think from a floor
perspective, it's just kind of like indisputable, Like he had a
really, really bad rookie season from a from an EPA perspective,
success rate, basically anything you look at and you can say
like, look, he was on the Titans, They fired their head
coach. They didn't have any weapons.
Like that's not who he is. OK, yeah, that might not be who
he is, but like it also could be who he is because that is what
he did last year in his rookie season.
That's like got to be in in the range, you know, on the low end
of the range maybe. But yeah, the floor here is is
is low. Like it has to be low given what
he did last. Year my stance is that like it's
not definitive that we can say that Cam Ward is any better than
Tyler Shuck period. Like we we, we have no idea that
that would be the case. Nor nor.
I mean, I would still probably say Shuck is going to be the
better pro at this point just based on what they did last
year. All right, JJ, you are on the
clock at 14. We had love Tyson Tate to start
things off. Where do you want to go here in
the Super Flex Titan Premium draft?
Well, I I hear he's on top of everyone's board, so I'm gonna
go Design Stribling. Oh, my God.
I'll go. I'll go, I'll go.
Mendoza here. I'm not verbal is binding.
Give it, give it to him. I.
Mean come on, I wanna play poker, not you.
I'll go Mendoza. I don't think the ceiling is
like crazy. I don't think the Russian
production's gonna be gonna be crazy, but obviously he goes to
an offense. Kling Kubiak we should probably
feel relatively good about even though they're gonna lean more
run heavy. You know, I wish they did more
wide receiver in the draft slash in general.
And they weren't. The weird thing is the one wide
receiver they drafted is just like a duplicate of like what
they already have there, like in Trey Tucker and stuff.
Like it's just it's just a really uninspiring wide receiver
room. But obviously Genti and Brock
Bowers and Bowers, you know, could, could go absolutely nuts.
You know, this year, you know, with all the changes and such,
you might see Kirk Cousins get more run than we would want
early on. But I think at the very least
you're going to get stability within the dynasty market year
over year. That's what we get with
quarterbacks and Superflex. You're you're going to have a
year to be able to, to decide if you want to sell the asset or
not. So that's in a worst case
scenario. So I'll go Mendoza next.
Is I guess for the panel, is there anyone who would have
taken Mendoza earlier or later than this or is this just the
the sweet spot? I think he's in the tier with
Tyson and Tate. You have Jeremiah Love by
himself, but I think in a superflex I have Mendoza in the
same tier with these guys. I I technically have them ahead
of Tate but they're all in the same tier still.
Yeah. And you have a four tier behind
the receivers. Yeah, I have him a tear behind.
He wouldn't have been my next pick and I actually have him a
tear down. Well, cool, Pat, that guy.
All. Right, Andrew, you're the high
man. I'll be the high man on this
one. I've taken him at 2:00,
especially in superflex. I hate drafting for me, but
sometimes when it's impossible to get quarterbacks, you just
have to make that move. In fact, I traded up to four in
this exact this draft pay. It played out just like this and
I traded up to four to get him because I needed quarterbacks in
that league. And you look at the hit rate
from the one O 1. And I know you can't just say,
OK, this guy was drafted first overall, but he's going to hit
like if you look at everything from like approximate value over
at Pro Football Reference in terms of like pick one, verse 2,
verse 3, verse 4, the hit rate for the guys that do go one
overall is wild. And if you look at all the
quarterbacks across the last like 25 years, over half of the
QB one fantasy seasons have come from guys that were either the
first or second quarterback drafted off the board.
So for me in Superflex, I look at Mendoza, yes, he obviously
doesn't have like the mobile attributes that we like to see.
He is going to have to be a guy that throws for like 4000 yards
and 35 plus touchdowns at some point to really be a difference
maker in single QB leagues. But in a class like this where
you know Ty Simpson was a shock to go in the first round and the
next guys aren't even going till the third round.
And the hit rate gets so bad once you get the second and
third round quarterbacks. Like right now in the league we
only have 3 quarterbacks who were picked in the second round
of the NFL draft that start Jalen Hurts, Geno Smith, and the
chats favorite Tyler Schuck. Those are the only second round
quarterbacks that hit. So if you need a quarterback,
sometimes you just got to bite the bullet and draft Mendoza.
And for me, once love is gone in Superflex, I'm giving our guys a
fancy on the green light and just saying, hey, you know what,
I like Tyson, I like Tate. But if you are in a position
where you need a quarterback to compete, you just got to take
this guy because I really have him way ahead of the other
quarterbacks in class. My my counter to that I think
would be like, couldn't you try to go get a veteran quarterback?
Because I think the thing with Mendoza, like the reason I
wouldn't be like I would. I'm taking the guys who I think
have really high end ceiling ahead of Mendoza and I still
think there's a guy left who does.
So it's like, can I, can I backfill with cheaper veteran
production where Mendoza, I mean, certainly he could he's
the number one overall pick in the draft.
He could end up having a really high ceiling, but he's in a
system where that could take like a while.
You know, this is going to be a run heavy offense almost
certainly this year and probably like for most of his rookies
rookie year, unless he's like truly awesome, you don't you
don't really have a lot of rushing.
He's big. He could run around the goal
line a little bit. He can like scramble around kind
of like Tyler Shuck does or something.
But it's really going to be driven by his his passing
volume. And if they don't really let him
drop back that much to begin his career.
I don't know. I mean, I'm, I'm just not sure
you're even getting that much production here that, you know,
you couldn't kind of fill in with a, with a veteran.
You, you absolutely can't draft him there if you don't think he
can become an elite passer, as simple as that.
But I, I think he can And I in this scheme, I know it is a lot
of, you know, run heavy and, and zone rushing, but we've seen
this scheme be super efficient for quarterbacks and not just
with Clint Kubiak. I mean, we've seen Kubiak do it
obviously with Arnold, We saw him do it early on with Derek
Carr before he got hurt. We saw Clint Kubiak do it 2023
with Brock Purdy and Brock Purdy had like some of the best yards
per attempt and, and NEA numbers of all time.
We've also seen Bobby Sloat go and take this scheme over to the
Texans where a rookie CJ Stroud looked incredible.
And then all of a sudden they they go and they add Stefan
Diggs and they they get rid of the fullback and they change
their scheme on them. Scott doesn't look as good.
We watched 22 Tuka Viola in this scheme with Mike McDaniel lead
the league in passing yards. So I don't think it's crazy if
things go right and and Kubiak and Rick Dennison can fix this
offensive line pretty quickly for this guy to come out and
have that upside in the near future.
It would have been nice if they actually drafted a a single wide
receiver that mattered. But I think it's entirely
possible that that this guy, if Kubiak is who we think he is,
then then it's a very friendly scheme.
So I, I do think there's upside there.
Again, a huge point. Like if this guy was even in the
not rushing, but mobile tier, I think it would be a no brainer
to put him at 2:00. But the concerns are that he
might just not do that at. All, yeah, I agree with you on
there on that for sure. All right, Andrew, well, you're
not done talking because you are.
Back on the clock at 1:05 here. Love Tyson Tate Mendoza off the
board. Yeah, and I know the hot pick
would be Casey Conception, but I do have Makai Lemon ranked
ahead. I just I love this type of
profile for for player in the modern NFL, right.
You go and look what he did and you know everybody because it's
USC. Everybody mentions Ahmad Ross
St. Brown and obviously that is like
picking the Super high end comp. But I love the teams that are
willing to let a guy play slot for two wide receiver sets and
then move out wide to flanker for three wide receiver sets.
It's how we got the Cooper Cup best ever fantasy season.
It's how we got CD lambs 400 PPR season.
It's where the best players come from.
And to Pat's point and the chat was saying, you know, that we're
too low on the on the on the upside for for Carnell Tate.
The concern for Tate is that he might end up in that role that
caps your upside like like George Pickens and T Higgins.
T Higgins is awesome, but he has to play the outside role where
Jamar Chase gets to play that slot flanker role.
I think Makai Lemon is exactly built for the modern NFL and for
that particular role. I think Devante Smith is going
to stay on the outside. I do think A.J.
Brown it's going to be traded and I think that that this guy
offers solid floor. I don't think he's just going to
be a full time slot guy. And when he does become a an
every down player, that's when we see these blow up seasons
from JSN and and CD lamps. So if he can avoid being a Josh
Downs or Jaden Reed part time guy, I think this guy has an
awesome SEAL. Yeah, this this is the guy that
I was I was saying I would have taken ahead of Mentos.
I I think Lemon's a really, really good prospect and has the
ability to play both inside and out.
He's really good deep as well as on short targets.
And I think, you know, in addition to being able to play
in a variety of positions, he's that that kind of hints at that
upside in the same way that like JSN, it's like, oh, this guy's
actually really good at all levels That to me, you know,
it's a very, very fantasy friendly type of role when you
see. Back like when Stefan digs, he's
like, oh, he's good short, he's good deep.
He can kind of do everything. He can play inside, he can play
outside. It's like a super high ceiling
type of role and type of type of skill set.
And you know, I know the fall in the draft was was tough, but he
ends up in a pretty good situation, I think for for
immediate production. I'm assuming Brown gets traded
as well. Does anyone not go lemon here or
is this consensus? That's who I had.
I'd go Lemon. My, my only, my only concern
with Lemon from a fit perspective is, is obviously the
Jalen Hurts, you know, the, the, the frequency in which he, you
know, targets the middle of the field.
It's been the lowest in the NFL since he became starter.
And that's where Mikhail Lemon's gonna win.
But the flip side of that is #1 Philadelphia is a smart
organization. And I don't think they take a
quote UN quote slot guy in the first round if they are going to
just leave him in the slot. It's just not the way like, and
if you look at historically the, you know, since over the last
five or six years, the wide receivers that have that have
played mostly slot that went in round one.
You know, you get the JS. Like we had the exact same
conversations with a Mecca Buka last year where it was this idea
that he would only play that role.
And it's just not really what that's just not the way that it
it typically goes down. You know, I, I like, it's easy
to make the JSN comparison. I think JS, I think we'd all
agree JSN was the better prospect, you know, coming out
had a phenomenal production profile and stuff.
And it's funny because you can look at Mikhail Lemon and see
that he was really good on yards per out run on the perimeter.
And we've seen that kind of connection of like high slot
rate and high perimeter yards per out run in the past.
And, and it's, you know, JSN was, was the one O 1 of that,
right? And he was better than Mikhail
Lemon at those things. But then after that you get a
ton of busts for for top 100 picks like Elijah Moore types,
you know, these guys that, that, that play.
But the, the difference is that Lemon is sort of like living in
the middle of. So, so basically what I'm saying
is the the the range of outcomes for Makai Lemon is Elijah Moore
don't. Say don't say Elijah Moore,
dude. No, I mean, I, I remember coming
through this with we, we had Scott on our Scott Barrett on
our dynasty points show right before the draft.
And he was going through a pretty similar like comparables
from that respect to what JJ was laying out.
And yeah, he was like, you know, on one hand we have JSN and on
the other hand we have like Elijah Moore and KJ Hamler I
think was in this group and some other like goofballs.
But I, I completely agree with everything JJ said about you're
not taking him, trading up for him, take him 20th overall to
play him as a slot only player. That's just not going to happen.
Like I know it even happened with JSN and CD very early in
their careers, but they joined like oddly stacked wide receiver
depth charts. No one loves Ontavian Wicks more
than me. But like, I don't think that
past maybe Week 2, you know, that Wicks is keeping Lemon off
the field and two wide receiver sets.
Yeah, it's more like I had lemon initially in a tear with Tyson
and Tate pre draft. I moved in behind Mendoza just
based on the combination of you know, he doesn't he falls in the
draft, doesn't have the same capitals the other two.
And I think it's a poor stylistic fit with Hertz and and
it's just also like a past volume concern when you're
dealing with Jalen Hurts. But I don't think it's going to
be a snaps issue. I think he's going to get a lot
of usage. Yeah, I mean, I do think he's,
he's like a worse prospect and a worse bet than JSN and JS NS
kind of hit his ceiling. But I, I mention him more
because I think he gets like it's like, oh, he's the new
almond raw. And like, he certainly could be
the new almond raw because he he really was quite productive on
short targets and delivered yak on short targets.
But he has this other element to his profile where he was really
good deep and he was he was good yak.
He had 6 yards of yak per game on deep targets.
Like Chris Brazil was second in in in this draft class in deep
yards last year in 12 games, he had 509 yards on 20 plus
targets. Mackay Lemon was first also
played twelve games, 522 yards on deep targets.
Like there's this component to his game that I don't think gets
enough love where he can produce at multiple levels of the field.
Maybe that maybe he's Elijah Moore ultimately, but I do think
that creates more upside to the profile then he kind of gets
credit for. Yeah, I agree.
Like in whenever me and Friedman, we're going through
the ranks after the draft, like he had more concerns about Lemon
being stuck as a slot player. I was really more like where
Jacobs at. I'm like, you're not taking him
at 20 to do that with him. And then to your point, Pat,
like 23% of his targets came 20 plus yards downfield.
Like that's more than Jordan Tyson.
That's more than Carnell Tate. Like, I mean, he did access like
all levels of the field. So I'm with you.
I had him next on the board. It's a good pick.
All right, Dwayne, you now have the next two picks in the middle
of round one here. What would you like to do with
this first one? Yeah, I'm going to go with
Concepcion. The other thing, Well, no, I'll
just, I'm just not going back. We'll just, I'm going with
Concepcion here. And I think your bet here with
Concepcion is like they he grades out really similarly to
Makai Lemon and the rookie supermodel.
So 83.3 for Lemon, 82.1 for Concepcion.
So I have them in A tier together, but you are making a
bet on really his year at Texas A&M where he showed that he
could play outside, that he could get down the field
vertical. Before that, he had really been
more of a gadget player, which is why he transferred.
That's why he left and went to Texas A&M ultimately ended up
being a really good move on his part.
So I do think he's a guy that can threaten all areas of the
field. I obviously the negatives are
like I hate the quarterback situation.
You have Harold Fannon junior already on the offense.
You know, I'm not huge on Denzel Boston, but they took a receiver
in round two as well. So it's a crowded room where we
don't know what's going to happen at quarterback.
And unlike The Jets, it's not like they have 3 picks in the
first round next year. The Jets can basically like do
whatever they want, like to move up and get the quarterback they
want if they're available, like in the 2027 class.
Like the Browns aren't in that boat.
Like if they somehow over perform, they have a good
defense, like and they win six or seven games and they're not
in the top. Like the the big scare for
conception is you get you get caught like in this perpetual
quarterback hell. And like the Eagles are just a
good organization that will eventually they're always going
to they get things right way more often than not.
The Browns are the opposite of that.
Like they just they get so many things wrong.
So I'm going with him though, because like still like it's
it's dynasty and like I'm just betting on the talent and I
think he's in a similar tier to Makai Lemon from that aspect.
So, but very interested like in in in you guys and your
thoughts, you know, on Concepcion.
Yeah, it's funny that you brought up their scores being so
close. The same thing happened to the
ZAP model. Like they were, they were like 2
points off of one another within that.
And the reason for that is Concepcion, you know, Makai
Lemon had had like a better breakout score and such.
Concepcion wasn't bad, it's just that he never had that peak, you
know, throughout his. But he did it earlier.
He had a better first season. Right, right.
Yeah, right. He was able to do it
immediately, but then it wasn't like, unbelievable.
Went down and then back to basically even with where he was
in year 1. The thing that the model likes
about him though, is that it does give like a bonus, if you
will, if you want to think of it that way for for versatility and
like rushing production and such.
And so you get that with conception.
And the other thing that really intrigues me is Todd Monken,
because I think that you can actually make a kind of high
level comp to Zafe Flowers with Concepcion.
Like a, he's like a bigger version almost.
And cause very not the most traditional wide receivers
coming out. Concepcion's a better prospect
in my opinion cuz he's an early declare.
He had better production, all that kind of stuff.
I thought Flowers had some more red flags analytically, but
there is like a lot of similarities between what they
do and how they'll win. And we saw him get the most out
of Zay Flowers in my opinion at least.
Like, he got a lot out of Zay Flowers in Baltimore, and I
think that's another. Good for a low pass volume.
Yeah, I got the most out of him. Yeah, I mean like the the, I
mean the, the efficiency was out of control, you know, for for
flowers and so. He could have maybe once played
him inside the 20 yard line that would.
Have been fun, yeah. Yeah, and, and, and maybe maybe
their their Denzel Boston pick was the.
Yeah. No, we're not going to use
Concepcion down there. Yeah, but like I, I do like.
Who's your scary? Comp for Concepcion JJI do have
Jalen Rager in the comp group and that that yeah like at the
the very low end like that's. Like he's a way better
separator. He got really good.
He got good. That's his top.
I don't know what the other ones are, but his top three in the
ZAP model like that was published were Christian Kirk
and Mecca Buca and Randall Cobb. Like very, just solid, you know,
just just good. Players.
I mean, if you want to say Christian Kirk is a down comp, I
I think that would still be a decent enough outcome.
But yeah, I mean, like, like you look at the situation.
Jerry Judy has an out in his contract.
Cedric Tillman, they're already trying to trade apparently, but
he has a he's a free agent next year.
And I too, I think part of it is like, if you're relatively
bullish on Concepcion, you probably aren't like in love
with Denzel Boston. And I'm not in love with Denzel
Boston as a prospect. Overrated for me.
Dwayne, what do you want to do with your second pick here?
I don't know. Stribly pull on the board bro.
Yeah. So I mean, we are playing tight
end premium, so my God. Or are you gonna you gonna deny
Andrew the champion? Tight end bro, come on.
No. No, no, look.
I mean look, it's tight end premium.
There is. I do have a tear break after
Concepcion, but I am gonna go with Kenyan Sadiq.
I definitely have concerns like you're just, you're betting on
athleticism, like his production rating.
Cooper just left the show. He just shot his for our audio
listeners. Oh, he's back.
He. Can he's in a moment we had a
contract over. Is that what happened?
He. Can have, you can have stowers,
yeah. So I mean.
Look, Cooper can have Cooper. He can.
Bet against it. So with Sadiq, look, it's just
it's tight end premium. You're betting on traits.
He's an Uber athlete. Obviously we all saw what he did
at the combine like absolute freak.
The big concern, never the focal point of the Oregon offense
ever. And people be like, ah, well,
they had Troy Franklin, these people and these people and the
model accounts for all that. But the model didn't see any of
those people as being necessarily like great enough
that they should have held you down.
And the model looks across multiple buckets.
It looks for how many teammates did you have with the receiving
yards per team pass attempt over this?
Or did you have two that were like maybe equally offsetting
each other that were like, you know, good but not elite?
Or did you play with like 3 really, you know, good ones?
Like it looks at all those things.
And so his 74 production rating is scary.
Like it's the it's the lowest like ever of a tight end taken
this high in the history of the model.
And one of his closest comps is Noah Fan, who was also an
athletic tight end. Now Noah fan at least had an
excuse. He played with TJ Hawkinson.
You know, I mean, Kenyan Sadiq did not play with anyone like
that. So I think this is a high risk,
high reward kind of player. But ultimately, like with the
draft capital, he still comes in at an 84.9 in the rookie
supermodel, which is like 6 highest and the draft capitals
the biggest wait in there. So I'm just going to take my
swing. And again, like I said before,
The Jets do have three first rounders next year.
So it's kind of crowded. We know Garrett Wilson, that's
like what, 24 to 26% targets probably automatic like that's
happening. And then you have Omar Cooper
junior who you added like in the model, thought he was slightly
overrated, but like should go probably in this range of where
he went in the draft. So they really have to address
quarterback long term. So I just took 2 back-to-back
picks with massive quarterback questions.
But I do think The Jets. Yeah, that's so The Jets and the
Browns drafted all the skill players.
I know, right? And that's what it like screwed
us all. But like I said, I think The
Jets have the draft capital next year.
Like if they think the quarterback's there that they
want, they're going to have the firepower to like go
theoretically now the players has to work out, but they can
solve the situation. Whereas the Browns, they may not
be in that position. So yeah, I'll go with Sadiq.
All right, Cooper, I mean, I know you care about these
quarterbacks. Is it a Ty Simpson tie?
Because no one will trade you for a quarterback in your
leagues. No, no, Ty Simpson, let me let
me just say one thing on Sadiq. If Frank Wright can hold on to
that job, his scheme historically could be pretty
good for Siddique. I mean, he's been around.
You're saying Frank Reichen good scheme doesn't?
Give you a whole brain been. A long time since Eric Ebron was
cooking, man. Eric Ebron, one example, 79% of
his routes run from wide receiver spot finished what
tight end four that year, 13 touchdowns.
And it's not just him, though. He did it with Antonio Gates, he
did it with Zach Ertz. That's a great player and
another good player, of course. But if no offense was, if no
offense was clean slate put into this draft, we would be drafting
again. There's only so many of these
guys that are this fast that have 100th percentile speed.
If you ran a 451 like Eli Stowers did, that's 98th
percentile. Like you just got to hold your
nose and take a shot on these guys and hope they become
special because there's so few draft classes that give us
multiple fantasy relevant tight ends.
It just doesn't happen. There's been one draft class
ever where we got four guys that all had 1000 PPR points in their
career and Tyler Higbee has like 900 and that class was Vernon
Davis, Owen Daniels, Delaney Walker and Mercedes Lewis.
Like 2020. There's not a startable tight
end from that class. So if a tight end goes in the
first round and he runs A4 four, you just pick him.
That's my take on that, especially in tight end premium.
I also think that's the my my. Fear is that actually overrating
how impactful we are projecting early tight ends to be because
of how amazing the recent tight end classes are?
Because like up until a couple of years ago, everybody that
everybody that take on dynasty tight ends was, oh, they, they
suck early. They don't matter.
It's like a diva. And then last year, I mean, the
Cooper just said, you know, 4 tight ends, 1000 people are I
bet we get that out of last year's class, right?
Like I I bet Loveland Warren Fannon Gadsden remember else I
bet they get there and they're over the yeah T Ferg sure Max
Max players jock strap holder. So maybe maybe they get there.
But but but I that's the. Sorry to drop, but when I say
that that that's the probably the best fantasy tight end class
of all time, people are like, you're so you're you're that
high on it. I'm like, no, the bar is so low.
The bar to be the best tight end class of all time is to have
three really good guys. Part part of the really quick
just to wrap it up in Sidi, because I've, I've like like a
few things about his like production profile that does
frustrate me is that he's 21. He's barely over 21 years old,
right? And so a lot of the adjusting
does look better in the in models, like with Sidique, given
his age. And if you look at like his
career yards per out run, which a lot of people will and you
know, 1.72, I think it was from according to PFF.
And you compare that to other tight ends that came out like a
train, McBride, Sam Laporta, they were at a very similar
large per hour run rate through their first three years in
college. They just boosted that because
they played another additional. And, and so, and then the other
thing in tight end in general, we've had like 6 good tight ends
over the last decade in fantasy football.
You know, like they're, we don't get many good tight ends in
general. And so when you comp these guys,
you're gonna get bad comps. It's just the way that the tight
end tight end position sucks. Terrible.
You're getting no offense, and you're not gonna get Brock
Bowers for all these tight ends. It doesn't mean that they're
like automatically gonna be terrible.
It's just that This is why we're not taking Kenyan Siddique 1O2
in a tight end premium league because the position just
generally sucks. Yeah.
And for the record, I want to say I have an F minus grade on
the scheme for The Jets. It's the lowest.
It's in the, I guess the one can you say the one TH percentile
like and it's based on things like motion, play, action, you
know, all these different things that we know actually we've
shown like to add value to offenses and yeah, so it's not
ideal with Frank. Do you have anything that that
lowers The Jets based on the coaches won't be there the whole
year? Yeah, yeah.
My thesis on them keeping Aaron Glenn was just so they could
fire him mid season this year. And then then it's just to keep
the fans like, let's not bring in another guy that everybody
wants to fire. Let's just let this guy like
start the season, we'll fire him and then we'll reset next year
when we get to take our quarterback and then Frank.
Anyone ever been more of an interim head coach than Frank
Wright? Like that guy was?
That guy is the most interim head coach by week 12 coded
coach imaginable. Frank, right?
Well, their their special teams coordinator is has an incredible
name. Oh God, it's like Charles Banjo
or something. Harley Banjo.
Chris Banjo And now I'm just rooting for I just need head
Jets head coach Chris Banjo like I need it.
Wasn't that an Astro second baseman?
I don't. Know he's the special.
Team. I don't know what he did before
this. So it may be.
Right. They bring in Doug Peterson to
be offensive coordinator and then they bring in Chan game.
I want to be tight end coach and it's just all big slot tight.
End I. Andrew, Andrew wanted to take
him so badly he had an entire monologue teed up and he had to
give it as a as a response. You're on the clock, Andrew.
You got to pick a non. Tight end.
I know we all agreed to try and filibuster this draft so we only
get through one round, but my take?
I'm going to. I'm going to make.
Sure, that doesn't happen. I'm about to start.
We're cutting people off here. I take it will be very short
then on on Jedarian. I'm kidding and I'm taking him.
It is short. It is a short take though.
You I really doesn't go much beyond he he's the he's got
first round draft capital to a landing spot that should be
friendly and the next running back that was taken.
What is a 24 year old guy that wasn't even invited to the
combine right in in Caitlin Black like Jedarian price like a
certain point in these drafts. You just have to hold your nose,
even if you didn't like the prospect.
And I thought he was fine and just take the mystery box where
we can say, oh, we don't really know exactly what he could have
been because he was behind one of the best prospects we've seen
in a long time. So simple as that for me.
Like and this is where I have them ranked as well.
Is anyone cuz like just looking at things this looks like a tear
break to me. Is anyone not taking price here?
No, I'm definitely I would take price and I've been taking the
anti price side of most of our basketball debates.
Yeah, I would definitely take. Smashing him here.
Same. So then JJ, who is the the first
guy after this price tear break here?
There's about 45 different players you could probably
choose from here. I technically I think my
rankings have like Tyson. Chris Banjo is available.
But I'm gonna yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna just lean into this
head in premium and and go. Eli Stowers next.
OK, let's you know, I, I, I don't, I think that this season,
well, I should say, I think that consensus is probably going to
be lower than I am on stours this year just because they're
very low on stours this year. But again, I think the Eagles
are smart organization. You know, they see like, I'm
actually surprised if you talk about like from a macro level of
what, like why the, the heavy personnel stuff works so well.
I'm actually surprised teams didn't like Stowers a little bit
more. I know that his blocking is very
questionable, but to me, part of the reason, not not part, but a
large part of the reason why the heavy personnel stuff can work
so effectively is like what we saw in LA last year where they,
they go out and, and pre snap, they'll move guys from 13 to 11,
right? And they're, they're so flexible
at the line. And that to me favors the
tweener types more like it favors the that's why I am
actually relatively bullish on like a Terrence Ferguson type
player, like in that in that environment, because he is that
more of that tweener type. And Eli Stowers is definitely
that he could play X hypothetically, you know, for,
for any NFL team, but in this case it would be for
Philadelphia, Dallas Goddard's old slash could be gone next
year. So he automatically would just
step in and and be the hypothetical Titan 1.
I think in most classes I wouldn't be taking him right
here, but there's a very large teardrop from one player to
that, from from price to to the what's next.
And with Ty Simpson, I think you can make that argument.
I just and I've taken him Simpson.
The thing with Simpson, though, that scares me is just holding
on to a dead asset and and like like the bench management side
of that and the the annoyance of that.
Plus you might not even be very good.
So I'm I'm just leaning on stowers here with the the Titan
premium. Karain, would you, would you
have taken Stowers here? You're on.
You're on the clock now. I might have, yeah, this is like
to me, we're like in kind of coin flip territory.
Following Price and Sadiq. I may have taken Omar Cooper
over Stowers. I think I have them like super
close. I literally have them one spot
apart in my overall rankings. So yeah, I think this is pretty,
pretty damn close here. And Cooper, I feel like it's the
last of a tier where you you do get a first round receiver.
Now see a very good prospect. Not really, you know, but he he
does like he does. He did, he did some yak stuff,
you know, and he also earned intermediate targets.
He didn't like do them together very well.
The last year was a little bit the the year they kind of got
him on the radar as a first rounder.
It was a little more schemed, which I I do think is
concerning. And then he ends up in this
horrible situation. Although I do have some hope at
the end of the season for for the offensive design.
Chris Banjos had some really interesting quotes for what he
expects to do with the offense late in the year.
But yeah, I mean, The Jets situation is obviously pretty,
pretty rough. But I mean, you look at like him
potentially, you know, in the late kind of first round of a,
of a rookie draft, he flashes, he does some interesting things
and then The Jets actually figure out quarterback.
I could see us getting reasonably excited about Omar
Cooper next year, him being kind of in that like 7 eighth round
redraft type of range, basketball type of range.
So I, I think like as good as you're going to do at this point
in the draft. Any other thoughts on this Jets
Cleveland mess here? I guess as it pertains to Omar
Cooper. I'm just not very high on Cooper
as a prospect, but I again, to to the point that we've been
making, there's just a drop here and you can make case for a lot
of guys. I have him ranked here, you
know, so like that makes sense to to make this election.
But I I actually like in the ZAP mod.
I just want to throw out there like, does that model likes like
a Jeremy Bernard almost as much as Omar Cooper, You know, So
like that's that's my fear is that like from from a like I
don't want to use first round capital to his advantage too
much because realistically, like the actual value of that pick
isn't as significant as it might seem.
They gave up. Do you know what they gave up?
The 179th pick. That's all it cost to move back
into the 1st. That was crazy on me, but that
was. The first.
I, I think part of it is that the 33rd pick in and of itself
has some like intrinsic value. Now, the Niners use it in an
interesting way, but like you could, you know, theoretically
be on the clock for like a whole day.
Fielding offers to trade back like it's it's kind of nice to
have that 8 hours or 24 hours on the clock.
It's 33, you know, or, or you could take this on Stribling,
but sources have it that that every team was actually offering
22027 firsts for 33 overall to take Stribling, but they decided
he was well. Apparently they were going to
take him in the first better speed.
They did trade down. Reportedly, yeah, which is
probably why they demanded so little because they were like
look like we don't wanna go out in our press conference tonight
and be like we took Desean Stribling in the first round so
just give us 179 and we're. Everyone, everyone had Stribling
as their wide receiver won and their board, and yet they were
still willing to trade back. Like they just knew that Grant
Cone was gonna light them up so hard they they took him 30th
overall that they they were happily accepting 179.
Cooper is like an Omar that I'm talking about, not Andrew has
been the guy that I'm stunned of how much I'm taking in this
year's class. It feels like there's a guy like
this every year for me where it's like a player that I don't
particularly love in any way, but like no one else does
either. And then he lands kind of like
some crappy spot and it's like he's 9th on my rankings and if I
can't trade out for a future one, he's kind of who I end up
taking a lot because he's almost never going before 9:00.
And then I also said I'm sitting at 11 or 12 and someone takes a
towers or someone takes a Simpson and he ends up following
to me. So I'm gonna end up with 18%
dynasty exposure to Cooper, which is 18% more than I I, I I
need but but hopefully works out.
Jacob, just say. I'll just say.
Jacob Jacob just lost a ton of semi finals last year, so he's
in the one O 9 and and every really it's true, yeah.
Yeah. Exactly, I'll just say like the
rookie supermodel likes him more than you know, the ZAP model.
Not saying that's right or wrong but I mean I definitely am in a
tier below Concepcion and Lenin. I had him one spot at me two
hours here in this format but same tier was towers so I mean.
I haven't the same I. Haven't.
I haven't 2 tiers I had of towers, but I've had the towers
debate on this airwaves for the last two weeks non-stop so I
don't. Even percentage Jacob doesn't.
Call him a tweener, he's got another.
Concept I. Do have another designation for
him? Yeah, that's true.
Like Concepcion and Lemon, like receivers are hard guys.
Like you guys know this, like receivers like, you know, you
have to actually really be talented like to to win at the
next level. I can't just turn around and
hand you the ball. So 50% of the comps for
Concepcion as well As for Lemon became top 24 wide receivers.
Like when you get to Cooper, it drops to 34%.
So it's definitely a drop and that's why there's a tear break.
But like about 50% of his comps reached top 36.
So maybe I'm just aligning with JJ here, but I, I just maybe
it's just I have Jeremy Bernard lower, not so much.
What I like about? Cooper.
What I like about Cooper is like if you're going to sell me on a
ceiling for a like late declare, late breakout wide receiver with
like pretty spotty production, the the top two things I'd want
to see is like was your per route production strong in a
limited role prior to your breakout and and it was stronger
than his rock production. And then do you have a lot of
balling and skills? And Cooper certainly has that.
So like he has indicators outside of sort of the the
two-dimensional elements of his profile that get me a little bit
more excited on a possible ceiling than I would be in a
vacuum. Am I that bullish on him?
No, like I think he's a clear step down from Concepcion, but
it it wouldn't stun me if he has a high ceiling.
I I know I'm probably about to pick this guy soon, but it would
like kind of stun me if Denzel Boston had a super high ceiling.
Yeah, I'm a tear above Boston post draft, but.
Yeah, yeah. I'm I'm torn on Thai Simpson or
Denzel Boston with this pick. I would rather just take the
bullet to my head. But because I'm forced to
choose, honestly, I think I'm gonna just take Thai Simpson.
I know generally we're trying to get the feedback a little
quicker so these assets can appreciate in value and maybe
it's a red shirt thing, but I'm just so worried that the
feedback we're going to get from Denzel Boston is going to be so
bad that his stock could drop and Ty Simpson so if.
You plug an electric guitar into the wrong amp.
That's the kind of feedback you're getting on Denzel Boston.
So I'll take the like the the Vanguard index fund that will at
least hold its relative value for a for a year here with Ty
Simpson. But what?
What are you going to do here, Jacob?
Like, I mean, this is the part of the draft where I'm like
sitting on the clock for six hours just going like at all.
Like anyone want to give me a 28 first?
And it's worked more than you'd think.
I've I've gotten I've traded out of this range, the 1:11 1/12 for
28 ones three times already. So wow.
And you're in 7000 leagues. 64 But like a lot of the rookie
drafts haven't started yet, so you know, we'll we'll keep
going. Yeah this I unfortunately have
to pick here. There's no trades.
I I too would probably take the bullet, but I'll I'll go with
with Denzel Boston. I'll go with Denzel Boston here
with the first of the two picks. Like I don't know.
I don't really know how to make a case for this guy.
Like, I don't think he's very good.
But. He has draft capital.
He has like some production. And then I will note that he was
behind all the good players, most of whom have been busted in
the NFL. Washington have Jalen Polk.
I mean, he was behind atrociously bad Jalen Polk, mid
Jalen McMillan and probably way more mid than we thought Roman
Dune say. So that's encouraging and also
below. Jeremy Bernard was.
There, the one case I'd make is like Bernard's.
Bernard's specific skills are like way more of a match for
being a wide receiver 4 on a team than Boston.
I think boss was pretty redundant.
So I don't read that as much as like a linear.
Yeah. So, OK, so I take Boston, who
stinks. And then and then I'll take
Jonah Coleman. I'll just take the double
Washington Husky turn here. So, I mean, I, I was a fan of
Jonah Coleman as much as you can be a fan of any running back in
this class. Oh, oh, never mind.
I thought we were sneaking. It's a third round reversal.
We did we we didn't sneak last round.
I did, yeah, man, blame AI blame.
AI apparently it's a 3 RR draft so I don't even get Coleman the.
Singularity's at least 20 years out guys after this Jonah
Coleman mishap here. Well, Dwayne, you're on the
clock. You don't have to stick with
Coleman. You can.
You can turn. Your own path.
I think he's won again. Please just take Dwayne.
Please just take Jonah Coleman because I don't think I built an
undo button I want to reset. Like.
Jonah Coleman. OK.
Yeah, that that's fine. Like I have.
Terrible pair. So here's what I'll say is like
Jonah Coleman before the draft, he was the number two running
back in the rookie supermodel. You know, now, obviously when
Jadarian Price, he goes at the end of round one, like that's a
big boost and he ultimately leaps.
And so with Jonah Coleman, like he's not elite really at
anything, but he's good at a lot of things.
And I could see him being, you know, a coach's pet kind of
player. You know, I mean, he's a solid
receiver. He's really he's a really good
pass blocker. He can do short yardage work.
I mean, he's only 5-8, but he's like 220, you know, So kind of
like that Maurice Jones drew kind of build.
So yeah, I'm, I'm fine going with Jonah Coleman here.
And the other thing is like his rookie supermodel rating is the
same as RJ Harvey who went well before where he went that model.
Hates RJ Harvey too, so let's go, baby.
Look at look at that. You know, always happy to be on
the same page with JJ with stuff.
So yeah, I'm, I'm good with the Coleman pick.
Thank you, Jacob. I'll, I'll, I'll take it.
And I think the big thing here like JJ, well, like you're good
at this stuff. So JJ Dobbins, like we've got a
two year deal. Like I'm not so sure.
Like if Dobbins went down this year, which like, you know,
there's a good chance of it, Jonah Coleman may just step,
step straight into his role and RJ Harvey just stays in the role
that he's in. I think he was.
I think he is. Very likely to do that.
Yeah, I agree. And then that means if that
happens by next year, how does everyone feel about Jonah
Coleman in this backfield? We would probably be projecting
him as the running back one like it can happen.
Yeah. I think the real question is
like what are the odds that Jonah Coleman in the dynasty
market is valued higher than RJ Harvey post 2026?
61%. I think it's, I think it's, I
think, I honestly think it's a lot higher than what other
people would generally. I agree with that.
You know, I would take I think. It's higher than 50%.
I think it's higher. Than 50% I don't but I just
think because there's like a decent chunk of the time where
this around 4 running back in this class just.
Stinks. So here, here, that's definitely
true. But my, my, so I think that that
Denver 1,000,000% just wanted a guy who could just take on
something last year. And RJ Harvey clearly couldn't
do that between the tackles. He was just not able to take on
that role. And then they get a player who's
just reliable, right, like just a a a dude.
And so from my standpoint, like I'm not saying that like I think
within the context of this class, I like Jonah Coleman,
right within the context of this class.
But I also think that that given the way that Sean Payton runs
his backfields, we know there's likely going to be a committee
here. So Coleman's going to get some
run. And then I think what will
happen is that we if you're drafting Coleman, you there
could be a really decent sell opportunity after year one
where. I agree with you there, yeah.
You know, like situation just kind of like comes together for
him and then you're like, well, this isn't that great of a pro.
Like it's a fine profile, don't get me wrong, but it's not like
amazing, right? And so then that's when you're
making that that sell. So you might get some.
There's that. Like Trey Benson window where
you're like, as long as I just do my damnedest to get out of
this. It's it went on when it's
available. And I think that Coleman's at
least like a good enough all around back that that he can he
can get some production, you know, in the right situation,
which I think this is a decent enough situation.
I would have gone receiver here, but likely one of the ones I
want will be here still in this second round reversal scenario
like when it all comes back to me so.
Yeah, we're going to pick up the pace here.
Cooper. You have a truly Choose Your Own
adventure selection here at Pick What 14.
Yes, and, and Stour's Cooper Simpson, Boston Coleman were a
tier in my rankings and it the tier was basically formed like
like in scooby-doo where there's something scary and you poke
your head around the the corner and it's even scarier in the
other room. Like that's that's the crew that
we have here and I there's two guys that I'm between that are
to me are very similar profiles. I don't want to name drop both
of them, but I'll I'll I'll mention.
This is for a lot of money. Don't tell.
Them. OK, OK, well, I'll throw them
both up. I'm so close between Jeremy
Bernard and Antonio Williams and it's very difficult for me to
decide between those guys. But right now, I'm on Jeremy
Bernard. I do feel like he's the more
boring pick. I'm gonna take Jared Bernard.
I think he's the more boring pick here.
It's kind of like I could see him being a Van Jefferson in the
league where coaches love him. Boy, that's exciting at the two
O 2. Two O 1 Van Jefferson.
You just say Van Jefferson. Two O 1 The argument was that
you can hopefully sell him before the window slam shot.
You know what I mean? Like that's the part of the
draft here. You guys talk about Jonah
Coleman. Was there ever a sell moment on
Van Jefferson other than just releasing him?
But I'm saying that's what I'm worried.
I'm worried about this guy is going to be just like the next
man up type guy that plays a little slot, can do anything if
somebody gets hurt, but doesn't really do anything great.
But I the way I look at it is the Steelers wanted this part of
their offense, right? We know that for a fact because
they had Makai Lemon on the phone they wanted.
It's really close to Denzel Boston for me and the rookie
supermodel. Like they're one point apart.
They wanted this guy in the scheme.
That might be Denzel Boston stat.
In the second round, they made him a priority.
There is a story. For me, I think this type of
guy, he got the second round draft capital.
They wanted this type of player, they made this type of player a
priority. Jeremy Bernard, I mean, he's not
super sexy, but I think that given the the scheme they want
to run there and and the draft capital, I'm going.
Yeah. All right, I'll, I'll, I'll just
go, I'll, I'll take Antonio Williams next.
They're they're they're all saying the same thing.
I'm actually more bullish on Bernard than others are.
I know his like yards per out run profiles, dog poop.
Yeah, but he also like Jeremy Bernard also played with a lot
of NFLers throughout his career, like he played with with with
Keon Coleman, the C count, Jayden Reid at Michigan State.
And then there's the Washington guys, there's the Ryan Williams,
you know, and, and and his last stop.
So like he's played with serious competition and you know, his
numbers aren't like out of control, but he was also
versatile. We know they need a slot player
and the Steelers could also get out of both Michael Pittman and
DK Metcalf hypothetically next year.
So there's there's that opportunity.
But Speaking of opportunity, Antonio Williams perfect spot
for him to go to. You know, he definitely profiles
as a slot, but in the ZAP model, I don't I don't use yard for out
running the ZAP model. And so the model is looking at,
you know, receiving yards per team pass attempt and all these,
you know, other different metrics and such and breakout
score. And he his top comp was Ladd
Mcconkey. Now, that doesn't mean that it
was, you know, that that the model like was adored Ladd
Mcconkey. It didn't mind him because there
is the versatility to Antonio Williams profile as well,
similar to Ladd similar size, all that kind of stuff.
And we're already hearing out of Washington that they're going to
use him both in slot and potentially in the Z.
And that's huge for not only, you know, his fantasy upside,
but also today's game in the NFL to be able to play on the
perimeter with these heavier sets and such.
So I am I'm going to Antonio Williams here.
I think he had a, he was, you know, another profile like
Concepcion in a way where the breakout wasn't as, wasn't as
immense as Concepcion's early on, but he he did enough early
on to get something. He just didn't have that like
Spike, you know, throughout his collegiate career.
And that was the biggest problem analytically for me.
Korain, you're on the clock next.
And I will just say this is such a funny area of the draft
because I actually have almost all of your guys's rankings and
I did like an aggregated thing and, and looking at it and all
of them, it's like everybody will be in line like roughly on
one. And then someone will have one
of these guys ranked 25 in like every one of these wide
receivers. Like someone is like I.
Believe it out. On this guy and everyone else,
like whatever 14, it's just. I mean, I've noticed it in
drafts. Like it's like, for instance,
like one guy that like I, I was super low on was like Malachi
Fields. But then I'll, I'll see him go
like frequently in the middle of the second round and I'll be
like, I haven't ranked like the 4th, but I'm like, that's a
totally reasonable pick. Like, it's kind of just like
shoot your shot, you know, once you get in this range.
But we know what Pat's doing here.
Yeah, I'm gonna, I'll take, I'll take Deshawn's dribbling at this
point. I mean, I do think this is like
JJ was talking about with your Jonah Coleman, you know, kind of
window, the cell window. I'm thinking about my cell
window on Stribling. I think the, the market's
reaction to him going 33rd, you know, being so vocal kind of
helps me because now he like, if he does anything, it's going to
be surprisingly productive to like the vast majority of
people. And I do think like there is
opportunity here. Like I, I don't think Ricky
Piersall is very good. Ricky Piersall is like just as
much of A reach going in the first round as as Stribling was
ultimately, and hasn't really shown anything to, you know, be
better than the other guy they reached for more recently.
Makes you feel great about their process.
Well, you know they they did like I you I thought was.
They've been way better than running back.
Yeah, they've been well. I would have been like
analytically I've been like, oh, that's that's kind of high
price. That was a great pick.
Like I think they have been actually pretty solid.
I mean, even Pierce, who I'm a huge fan of, like he's a starter
for them currently. So has been a disaster.
Well, you know, Pearsall was available kind of in the I think
early to mid second Jacob, you would you would remember better
than me what his ADP was and his rookie year, but I believe.
His ADP was the two O 4. OK, Yeah.
In rookie drafts. Yeah, pretty big sell
opportunity that you had on Pearsall entering year 2.
You got a bunch of hype about the route running, how well he
fits the scheme, all that stuff. Like you could easily get that
with Stribling entering year 2. Now is it like unwarranted and
immediately fizzles? Yeah, probably.
But like. I just think you're you're in a
position where you can bet on the draft capital.
You can bet on him to flash in his rookie season.
And then the hype campaign starts in year 2 with
potentially Evans no longer there with Pierce all like
cementing himself. Is is no one that you need to
worry about and in the Shanahan offense with with locked in
quarterback play. That's pretty good with Purdy.
So, yeah, I mean, basically what Jacob said about Denzel Boston,
This guy probably stinks, but I'm betting on the draft
capital. But I get to do it, you know,
half the round later. All right, I am on the.
Clock I checked by the way my memory failed when he was the
two O 5 that. Was like, that was so robotic.
Man, that was impressive. It was wrong.
It was close. Because I've clearly set up like
a a three-way a three-year rebuild when I took Ty Simpson.
I'm gonna continue to fund the next two years and take Chris
Bell and hope he heals in Miami, finds a quarterback sometime
within the next decade. But if that happens, guys, watch
out because this guy, he can fuck on the field.
Chris Bell, come on down. That that's what I wanted.
My last pick to be was Chris Bell.
Sorry, Dwayne, the AI said. He's mine.
Good, good. Upset.
But he's not. Can we stop the A.J.
Brown stuff? He's not A.J.
Brown. Yes, he doesn't he he doesn't
compare like analytically at all.
But like he compares to Xavier Legat pretty nicely.
Yeah, that's. True.
Well, like whenever, whenever there there was a steam that he
was going to be a round one pick like the rookie supermodel was
like that would be a massive reach.
Like the the supermodel some as a round two or round three pick
like in drafts anyway, but it's like what you?
Said Brian Edwards, Michael Wilson, Cedric Tillman were my
top. Comp but it's like what Jacob
said earlier with Omar Cooper Junior.
It's like if you're going to tell yourself a story on a
player, it's like, OK, there's no one on the Dolphins and like
this guy can be a really good Yak player and an offense is
going to I think going to try to run the ball even in losing game
scrubs. Like they've got a defensive
minded head coach, they've got, you know, an offensive
coordinator from that kind of style.
He's going to want to lose honorably.
Yeah. So I mean, but play action,
getting that guy the ball in the middle of the field, like you
could center your offense around a player like that for a few
years. They're going to draft someone
else next year, so he's going to have immediate competition.
But yeah, I like the pick of Chris Bell.
Jacob he he's a guy that like going back to like Devi world.
I was preparing to just fade the shit out of going back to the
fall and Ricky drafts this year. And then when he got injured and
he falls, I'm I've I've at least been mixing them in.
Yeah, I have two guys left in my my tear of sadness in the early
2. So I'll take them.
First guy is just like a a like I would say it's like an 80%
chance. This guy does literally nothing
on my dynasty team ever. But there's like a sliver of an
outcome where I could see him being a pretty high ceiling guy.
So give me Nick Singleton. Big Dick.
Nick here is the first pick. He is blind and then as like
virtually no like feel for for how to.
Fund Dating. Profile you know, much like the
squirrel that tried to attack me yesterday like he runs with a
ferocity and and no awareness of whether the window is shot.
But like he can he can create a lot of explosive plays and most
importantly for fantasy, like we're talking about a a
workhorse size player with probably elite athleticism.
He didn't, he didn't test as the broken foot, but it looks really
fast to me. And you have one of the better
receiving profiles in the class too, especially.
My my case for Stribling should have been Pete's about to draft
a guy with a torn ACL and Jacob's about to draft a blind
man with a broken foot. It's time to draft 33rd overall
pick on the draft. Give me your blind.
You're broken. You're my my next pick.
It's probably is is easily like my guy in the 2026 rookie class.
So I I will take Mr. Eli Raritan, who I I legitimately
love compared to his his draft price, which has been in the mid
3rd and Ricky drafts is the huge reach.
But a player that I have a lot of confidence in being the best
like blocker at the head end position on on New England.
Honestly, from potentially day one in terms of what he was able
to prove as a run to run blocker and pass blocker even in games
against like Messidor and Bain for Notre Dame.
And then more importantly to me, you have a ton of receiving
juice that might be untapped because you have the two ACL's
that really limited the early production in his final season,
which is really the only one that he had meaningful receiving
production. And you get a lower receiving
yards per team pass attempt. But part of that is because he
was held into pass block on 31% of routes in college.
Like if that translates to the NFL, he's dead.
But I don't really think it will.
I think it was kind of a weird Notre Dame scheme thing because
you're looking at a guy who has over 15 yards per reception,
2.23 final season yards per route run, and over a 9.8 Ras.
So it's not like he's a guy who profiles as some tip Ryman.
I think that the blocking stuff works in his favor and that he's
going to be able to play a ton of snaps.
So really excited about rare. I think he's going to have a
legitimate role this year and I think he's he's potentially just
the like 90% snap rate starter for Drake Mays offense as early
as 2027. I was going to take him there,
but coming in from on ship chasing for the first time and
reaching for a tight end as a tight end guy plays for my
favorite team would have would have been a violation.
But I, I think you can make an easy argument that the scheme
also to your point, Sanderson, where he did a ton of blocking
that that win against him, we're blocking on 25% of your pass
plays. He was still able to put up
those numbers. You're talking about the 2.33
yards per route run. Like we've seen teams draft guys
like a big example would be Rashi Rice and just totally
change how they're used to the next.
Level well Andrew, when you block they don't use that for
your yards per route run. That's just FYI he.
Was an interesting guy where his his yards like depending on what
you look at his yards per route run in the final season was way
better than his yards per team pass attempts because on 30, 30%
of his team pass attempts he was blocking so.
But at the same time, they still, they still used him for a
good he wasn't just like a pure inline blocking tight end like
we see like with Sam Roush where it's like not only is he
blocking a decent amount, but he he's being used in line for like
70% of his snaps. Like with Raritan, they still
lined him up in the slot and out wide like 50% of the time is
wide receiver snaps. They moved him around.
So like he has that to his profile where you don't just
throw him in with the other block and that ends.
That's for me. Raritan is my tight end 3 just
like he went here. Me too.
I would have been really happy to get him.
I mean, he the other thing about him is that he led the FBS in
deep yards at the tight end position last year with 282 on
20 plus yard targets. And it's like, you know, you
talk about like a Sam Roush or like a lot of guys in this
class. It's just kind of the classic
little like, you know, throw me, throw me a little check down
kind of kind of tight end production where you're hoping
they eventually become a full time starter And they, you know,
it's like you find the next Dalton Schultz or, you know,
whatever kind of guy in that mold.
And Raritan at least has like a profile where he does have the
elite wrasse. He's got really good speed for
the position. He was moved around a bit and he
lands with a with a great quarterback who loves to throw
deep. So he does have this profile
where there's at least it's it's pretty thin, but you could see
him actually like adding something to an NFL offense in a
way that tight ends often don't. So I, you know, at this point in
the draft, I think that that upside makes him worth it.
I am. Next I'm going to select
Zachariah Branch. He's fast, He's a wide receiver.
He's got 2 quarterbacks with just absolute cannons of an arm
who should be able to get him the ball deep deep down the
field. I have nothing else nice to say
about him. Karain, you are on the clock.
I am the true ship chaser because I'm going to piss yellow
here and take my fourth straight wide receiver.
I grabbed my guy Ted Hurst, who I mean, Hurst, I think has like
a super low floor. He's a small school guy.
He transferred into a like a smaller, unimpressive program in
his junior season, stayed for a senior season rather than
entering the NFL and rather than just transferring somewhere
else, but dominated the production at Georgia State for
two seasons and did so by being a true deep threat, plays
outside. He's got decent size, like 206
lbs. He's really fast and I think
there's opportunities for him to have that type of role in the
Buccaneers offense pretty quickly because they they have
guys that can play outside but are more like intermediate
winners, you know, and Godwin and in Abuka and McMillan, I
think, you know, those guys are more like Z slot type guys.
And so maybe you have Ted Hurst down the stretch carving out a,
a pretty solid role for himself as as like a big outside
downfield guy. Yeah, that's that's about it.
JJ, Your. Final pick, Let's just go, Let's
just go Elijah Serrat with the next.
One JJ. Just a really good production
profile, really good age adjusted production, got better
every year, was a zero star recruit, but just kept getting
better playing at different programs.
And I think he's going to work well in a big slot role in in
Baltimore, yeah. 93 production rating in the rookie supermodel.
It's the sixth highest all time and those guys don't always work
out. But you know, most guys that are
productive in the league were also good in college, so.
Dwayne sniped again. Coop, you're going to go out
with a brand, play a tight end or you going to go somewhere
else? Let's do it.
Pull up the tab, pull the tight end tab.
And I am also like JJ A. Terrace Church for Kurt shirt
for Kurt. Shirt Now I'm a I'm a Terrence
Ferguson guy, so I will not be taking Max Claire.
I'm going to take Eli. I'm going to take Eli.
Sorry, Oscar Del, I like Oscar Delph here.
Is he not even there? He is.
No, he is. You can make a lot of the same
arguments that you're making for Eli Raritan about Oscar Del In
Fact 33. You can make the arguments
you're making for Kenyan Sadiq. I mean, you can, right?
He's got the he's got the speed, the pro day, you know, even if
you adjust it up to 453, like some people are doing 454, like
that's still 96 percentile. And he did go somewhere where
they currently have a guy who's turning 30 that was a wide
receiver that converted into a tight end.
And and he can kind of learn from him how you grow into that
type of role. So for me, I think Oscar Dump
could be the heir apparent to Juan Johnson.
He's got the size, speed, all that is just the production
brutal. So you just got to hope that
Georgia just should not know how to.
That little that little detail. Otherwise I was the production
just brutal ends. I almost took him.
I almost took him with the last pick.
So I like, I like the dull. Pick Dwayne, bring us on home
AKA put us out of our misery. Oh my God.
He wanted to do 2 rounds for the record, just to take everyone
behind the court. We're about to finish up the
fourth round here. I thought we were going to do
another few. I literally I had to end this
show 3 minutes ago and I just had to listen to a conversation
about players who will like not be in the league in a year and a
half so. All right, Yeah.
So just give me Jacoby Lane. Like I wanted Elijah Serrat, but
like I also know in the range of outcomes, like there's a chance
that like Lane becomes their second target eventually.
So just give me him. It's uninspiring.
I was torn between him and Skylar Bell.
Skylar Bell, like obviously his stuff was when he was older, but
he is attached to Josh Allen. So you can make that argument,
but I'll I'll take Jacoby Lane. I almost took Carson.
I almost took Carson Beck with my pet.
Yeah, yeah. I can't do that because I made
Yeah, yeah. Anyway, I just think there's
like from a value perspective, there's in the market, there's a
chance that you can get something once you become a
starter at the at some point. I'm so torn between like, on one
hand, it's like this is one of the worst draft classes ever and
you can get a guy who's like -150 to be starting by week 10
of this season at the quarterback position of
Superflex at like the 212. And then the other hand on his
shoulders, like, bro, it's Carson back.
I don't. Know if they're like we're we're
wrong. We're wrong.
For the record, he's in this tier.
We could probably re rule everyone was probably saying the
exact same thing about Tyler Shuck last year and I get it.
But like I just with quarterback, when you're talking
that low of opportunity cost, like I've drafted back at the
beginning of round three like pretty consistently.
Yeah, I have two. Yeah, yeah.
All right. I do have 21 in my ranks.
I'm I'm generally with you guys. Yeah, I.
Meant 20, yeah. To power this down, but I
appreciate Dwayne, JJ, Andrew giving us their time today.
Obviously, Dwayne over at fantasy life, go check out the
rookie supermodel. He's got profiles on all of
these guys, analytical deep dives, all that good stuff.
Even projections recently pushed out.
JJ, of course, the late round draft guide.
Go get that of course, freshened up after the NFL draft.
Cooper, what do people need to check out over in your neck of
the woods? Yep, fantasy alarm.
We got our best ball rankings up, Dynasty, redraft, everything
already going. And check us out SiriusXM
channel 87, six to 8:00 PM on weekdays.
Beautiful Pat Jacob. Any other last things that
weren't mentioned last night on ADP Chasing?
Matt Irby just had a article go live this morning on running
back dynasty cells that I feel like people watching would be
pretty into. And there's some spicy cells.
These are not like, you know, cheap, cheap little running
backs, a couple, a couple second year running backs.
He had a cell. So it's a fun one.
And yeah, Dynasty rankings had an update late last week.
Gonna be updating them for one quarterback leagues in the next
day or two. Yeah, nothing, nothing new from
like when we were on the air 21 hours ago.
But yeah, we got all the rankings updated, all the rookie
content if you have drafts and I have DraftKings best ball
rankings up there now too, as well as as underdogs.
So if you want to check that out.
One other housekeeping note, I've been meaning to mention
this on a stream and keep forgetting but we have locked in
the dates for our annual ship chasing meet up.
If you guys are in the discord and YouTube members or YouTube
members, I did a post for you guys.
We have the dates. It's going to be August 1st and
2nd in Austin TX. We will have a night even for
just people locally who aren't YouTube members to hopefully
come and hang out. But if you guys want to do the
drafts, you want to do the water activities with us on Sunday,
make sure you get in the discord and fill out that form.
Or you can hit me up if you have more questions.
But going to be a very fun hot time in Austin, TX this summer.
Thank you to everyone for hanging out in the chat.
Thanks again to Coop, JJ and Dwayne, we'll see you guys on
Tuesday for ADP Chasing peace.