Week 15 is done the first week of the Fantasy play offs and I
would be remiss if I did not offer my deepest and most
sincere congratulations to all open drafters to ever grace the
fantasy football platforms with their presence on their
absolutely fantastic round one advance rates.
Your checks are in the mail for your -50% return on investment.
This is stat chasing Pat fryer Helmo.
This is what this is, Anita Hand.
Job fix your sight, Jamar and Alpha play chase.
You can't handle the heat. It looks like we're finally at
this point here, right? Well, well, well, Draco, how the
turntables? Turn.
Yeah, this. Oh, was that a dramatic pause
that I just ruined? No, no, no, I, I was, I was
throwing it to you for, for. Justice.
OK, yeah, well, I think it it's not, it's not just the IT what's
funny is it's not just the, the, the round one advance rates.
It's the round one advance rates that have been like victory
lapped for like months, months and months and months.
Like people are like October, like it's the year of the
running back. Yeah, The thing, the thing that
is going to make me the most insufferable to those people
here. And so if you're one of those
people where this is going to hurt your Fifi's, just turn the
show off right now. You know, it's going to be a bad
one for you. Or if you're into pain and
suffering, you can stay tuned here and just be punching air as
you listen to me. Absolutely take a dump all over
you for how stupid you are. But the thing that really stuck
in my craw with the, you know, Week 8, we're coronating the the
world's best, best ball player of all time because they drafted
77% Derrick Henry and they have 90% Shuba Hubbard is when you
pull back the curtain and take a look at the portfolios of the
quote UN quote best proclaimed drafters.
You're talking about like the wizard guy FF.
Wizard. Sure, sure, There's a whole host
of them who were sniffing their own farts all through the
offseason. And the best thing about it is
these people are so dumb that it doesn't matter that I'm going to
explain how bad they are at the game right here.
They will be back next year to lose just as much, if not more
money. And and that's the great thing
about it is the biggest fish in this game.
It's not like poker where it's like, hey, don't tap the tank.
Like we're just here for a good time.
Like everybody can sit around the table and have a little fun.
Like these people are coming at it so aggro and so much of their
ego and identity is tied up in. But I drafted 77% Derrick Henry
and I'm the best, I'm the smartest man to ever live that
they are just going to dig their heels in on this and come back,
you know, with even more fervor than they had this year.
And, and when you pull the curtain back on their portfolios
and you look at these entirely undiversified portfolios that
are effectively just, you know, they're really just one big, you
know, single season parlay ticket is what they're looking
at. And then they're surprised when
it gets to week 15 and this parlay that they've been running
hotter than the sun with for the entire year, all of a sudden
craps out in one week. And guess what?
It happens to be that individual weeks do matter at the end of
the year. Those that was in the rules.
If you had bothered to read like you could have known that this
was something where it's quite important to not have all of
your eggs in one basket because if something goes wrong and all
your eggs are in one basket, you're dead.
See you next season. And and you know the the whole
thing of like, Oh well, they drafted all the best, most
undervalued players. Yeah, for this specific run out,
like congratulations. I mean, if we're if we're
rolling A6 sided die and you guess before I roll it that it's
going to be a 5. Are you the smartest man that
ever lived? Like no, you, you just you ran
good. You picked the right number one
out of six times. And I think that so much of
fantasy football people view is like a deterministic thing
rather than we're dealing with a range of outcomes.
And so it's hard for people who are not very, you know, numerate
to understand that, hey, picking the right players, like, sure,
if you're going to be perfectly accurate, over accurate at that,
over a huge sample is gonna be the best strategy you could
have. But the truth of the matter is
you're not and no one is. And that is why, you know, I, I
really don't subscribe to this theory of like jam 80% of 10
players and have those in your portfolio.
And then you have these crazy advance rates when it works out
for you. I mean, you can go back and look
at the historical data and see what happens to the vast
majority of these people who do jam 80% of a bunch of guys.
Like the carcasses are numerous, you know, they're, they're
strewn amongst the rubble of years past.
Like you'll get a couple guys who go super heavy on these hard
stands and they're the ones that it works out for this year and
they think they're geniuses. But so many other people who
drafted so, so similarly to them and just were unlucky in the way
that this specific outcome happened, as opposed to the
people that got lucky. So many of them are just
absolutely stone dead. You know, no, never a snowball's
chance in hell of of actually having a chance to win any of
these tournaments. So that's, that's the long
monologue. We can we can go ahead and get
into some charts but had to get it off my chest.
Right. I mean, so I am, I like you.
I'm feeling pretty good about our, our week 14, our work week
15 kind of 0 RB run out it, it, it's, it's feeling pretty nice.
I guess the, the only thing that is still kind of in the back of
my mind is so I, I know a, a lot of the, a lot of the Saquon
teams are kind of wiped out now because he, he kind of dragged a
lot of teams to playoffs and, and, and you needed those kind
of 30 and 40 point games from. And if you look at his week 15,
despite, I, I guess some, some, some of this is interesting
because despite like them having they run the Eagles run 81
plays. He was on the field for 59% of
those plays. He only had 13 expected points
and then he didn't have the big runs.
But I I guess what I come back to a little bit is what if next
week he does break off those big, big on runs anywhere Like,
oh shit. Yeah, I mean, absolutely.
If you got a Saquon team through or you got a Derrick Henry team
through, those are teams you're really happy to have right now.
They're still going to be relatively owned.
Like they're not all of a sudden low owned pieces.
They're just normal ownership. You know, they're not, they
didn't magically become low owned off of one week.
I've I've seen a couple teams advance with Saquon on them,
with Henry on them. I even saw a Saquon and Henry
team advance. So, yeah, they're they're out
there and and those people are set up for a pretty good spot
now where these guys that were going to be the massive chalk to
where they didn't really help you all that much unless they
just truly became mandatory in the the finals, you know, if
they were necessary to win. But now you're in a situation
where if they have good games, they can actually be enough to
differentiate you because the field is not going to be so, so
full of them. So I'm not saying that, you
know, oh, if you have a safe one or Henry team left, it's over.
Like, no, that's a good thing, right?
Yeah. Right, I, I, I know when with
FFPC, it being tree of 12, I'm feeling a lot less so
uncomfortable about that kind of possibility where if it if like
one of them has a big spike week, at least there's some like
advanced spots a lot for me. Right, Yeah.
And it obviously depends on the tournament format that you're
in. Some of them will have
friendlier advanced structure for this week.
Some of them are pretty tough. I mean really so much of it at
this point does come down to pod luck.
I I've had teams where they would have advanced in, I'm
looking through and it's like, oh, this team would have
advanced in literally every other pod that I had in the same
tournament except for this one. Like I had ADK 555 get knocked
out with about 190 points and I'm looking through all my other
pods. It's like, Yep, that would have
advanced almost everywhere. And that was one of my best
teams. Like as far as the players that
were left. And the most brutal part is it
was a Bengals onslaught and all of the Bengals did good, but not
good enough like Jamar Chase. And this is on DraftKings.
So Jamar Chase 4 yards off the bonus.
So he gets one more 4 yard reception, that's 3.4 more
points. T Higgins 12 yards off the
bonus, one more reception, 4.2 more points, right?
Jamar Chase gets that touchdown like that's that's enough to
advance. And so it, it was a little
brutal in that respect, but that's the way that is how the
pod format works. And again, that is part of why
being taking a diversified approach to your portfolio is
important, because you really don't want the same combos over
and over and over again in these playoff weeks.
Because the only time that's a good thing for you is when those
were the nuts. Like, sure, if you had CD Lamb,
Devante Adams, Brian Thomas, Chase Brown, you know, and you
know you couldn't have Jamir Gibbs at that, but Mike Evans,
you had that five player combo, right?
Like of course you're happy if that's what you slammed across
your whole portfolio. You've got like that combo on
20% of your teams. It could be absolutely absurd
for having five players across 20% of your teams.
But like when you get to the next round, those players are
all more owned and that specific combo of players is going to be
pretty owned. It's just when you when you see
kind of how it plays out, you're asking a lot for the same guys
to do it over and over again each week.
And then really what that manifests as in the finals is if
it is the same guys that do it over over again each week, you
end up being really vulnerable to leverage.
So if those guys aren't the ones that you need in the finals,
like you're, you're very easily going to be passed by people who
have these lower owned one off players.
So just a just a good reminder about how the pod structure
works and pod variance is brutal and how you you can actually
make this a strategic part of your game.
You can play for the format that you are in.
I know this is shocking news to some people, but you you
actually can't do that. You're allowed.
Yeah, the other thing and I I, I've been saying this for years,
years and years and years. I, I honestly think too many
people play and and big underdog is going to assassinate me.
I think too many people play BBM like the vast majority, like I,
I, I know like there, there are some people who, for example,
who are correct to Max the, the DK Millie maker, the the, the
what you call it the actual DFS Millie maker every week.
They have the bankroll, they have the ability.
It's a great way. It's they're they're building EV
every week and they can take the swings, But that's not most
people. And I think there are too many,
most people type people that are playing that when they should be
put, they should be playing a like I, I think, I honestly
think BBM should be the last tournament that you Max like I
think you should be maxing a lot more tournaments before you do
that. Yeah, that's that's really well
said. And one of the things that
people do not really understand when you're talking about these
really top heavy contests and these large field lottery
formats is what is your expectation going in?
What is the thing that happens most frequently for you?
I, I'm, I'm gonna reference a tweet that someone shared with
me, but this it just like screams to me how innumerate the
vast majority of people are playing fantasy football, which
is a little, I mean, it's if you're someone that's playing
fantasy football with an expectation of profit or you're
playing because you think you have an edge and you, you're
pretty confident and you have the ability to, to measure that,
then this is encouraging for you because there are people that
are not, not equipped to be playing these games well.
But if you're talking about it from like a standpoint of, gosh,
these people are doing some stuff that's probably like
really financially bad for them and they don't understand it.
So this tweet is 1 poll I would like to see turn to all that did
Max BBM 5. Was it worth it?
Of course those still advancing may have way different outlook
as we have semi and finals left yes or no.
And the the even asking this question is so baffling to me
because what do you like If you said is it worth it no to maxing
best while mania. To me, that means you had a
fundamental misunderstanding of what you were signing up for,
which if you're putting almost $4000 on the line and you don't
really get that the vast majority of the time, you're
going to lose over 50% of what you put in.
That's that's pretty concerning. Like there's a lot of people
that are just lighting money on fire and don't understand it,
right? Like they're over the whole
summer, they're drafting and they're thinking they're just
dreaming about the really good outcomes with fundamental
misunderstanding of what happens the vast, vast majority of the
time. Well, I mean, BBM is probably is
probably the most fun contest to draft in because that's what
everybody's doing. Like you, you build that sense
of community that you're drafting the same kind of
tournament as the people, as your friend, as your online
friends. And I'm I'm I'm going to tie it
into this is I'm going to take it off the screen, but that
that's our good friend and saying BBM and DK Millie has the
most dead money. And that's true.
And it's kind of like, Jason, I think you're like the classic
person who should actually be maxing and BBM and lots of
people are. But but the variance and and and
and and and the bankroll that you need and the understanding
of the variance that you need to do that and and and for it to be
worthwhile is something that is is not something most people
have. Yeah.
I mean, of course J Fresh should be mapping everything, but not,
there's not very many J Fresh's out there.
You know, not very many people are, are, are going to be as
good or able to take advantage of these games and have a
positive expectation in them. And it's not necessary an anti
anti underdog take. Like I know, I think Hope
tweeted out that that she's working on like having 100
tournaments that are are not BBM and have different advanced
restructures and so like have different them and probably meet
most people's goals a little better.
Yeah, I I just think that you need to, if you're gonna play
best ball for an amount of money that's meaningful to you, or if
you lost that money, you lost all of it, you would be at the
very least like a little sad. You need to make sure that you
can answer the following questions.
What is the most likely outcome for you in a given year, right?
What is what? What's going to happen most
years that you play this right? You lose about half.
That's my expectation too, if you're going to lose about half.
And are you comfortable with that outcome, right?
And can you afford to continue to do that year over year?
The the nice thing, though, like saving grace for Bestball is
that there's not very many slates, right?
Like over the course of your lifetime, you know, even if you
play best ball, you discover best ball in your, you know, 20s
or 30s and you play every year until your 70s, you know, it
lasts forever. Best ball never dies.
Like you're gonna play 40 slates like that's nothing.
You know, like I, I've already played like well over 60 slates
of DFS, you know, for the NFL season this year, like, and
that's just for showdown. Like when you include classic,
like you're over 100 slates. So it's like you end up with
it's, it's hard to go broke playing basketball unless you're
just playing an absurd amount in a single year.
So like the bankroll, the bad bankroll management that a lot
of people practice does not catch up to them in, in best
ball just because you don't have that many slates for the bad
decisions to really, you know, come to roost.
But I, I've seen people who like are people that I recognize from
being in these communities for multiple years, say stuff like,
oh, I've played best ball for four years.
And this is in, in response to a tweet where someone said, Oh, if
you don't have a bankroll of, you know, greater than $10,000,
you shouldn't be playing best ball mania at all.
And I saw someone say, oh, well, I've, I've been playing
basketball for four years and my bankroll is less than half of
that. And I'm, I'm profitable over
those four years. And my answer to that is like,
sick brag that you've been sun running.
Cause like a four year sample of slates is really small.
And over four years, even if you're a very good player with a
huge edge, your expectation is still going to be that you're
negative like that. You're losing money.
It almost all comes down to did you bank a tournament and you
know. Or a top five finisher or
something like. That, yeah, yeah, depending on
the structure. Right.
But ten $10,000 as a as a bankroll proxy for if you should
Max BBM is pretty good. I think that's a pretty good
real time. Yeah, I mean in in DFS, because
you can turn over the money so much faster.
A nice heuristic that I've heard other people reference is look
at what first place is and if you can't stomach going on that
large of a downswing. So if you're playing the Millie
Maker and you can't stomach losing $1,000,000 before you
win, your bankroll's probably not big enough to play this
right? If you're playing, you know, all
the Showdown Lotto slates and you can't stomach losing 300K or
500K, whatever the 1st place prize is, that's probably out of
your bankroll. And so it's the thing where like
even for people listening to this even.
Shark I I think like just to be clear, like we're not saying
that people who have bankrolls less than 100 grand shouldn't be
playing basketball. No, no, I mean again.
That was my that's like, is this what Saka's saying?
So I'm I'm asking a dumb question that somebody else may.
Right. No, no.
And, and the thing, the thing really that I'm saying with
regards to basketball is the bankroll, the bad bankroll
management that most people practice doesn't hurt you as bad
in basketball because you don't get to turn the money over as
fast. I mean, you're going to lose a
bunch of that money, right? Your risk of ruin is still
really high. But it's not like DFS where if
you overextend yourself in DFS, like you can evaporate it real
quick because the slates are coming, you know, multiple
slates a week, you know, and if you're playing multiple sports,
like you could easily have 1020 slates, you know, in the course
of a week. And then it's you just nuke your
bankroll if you're overextending yourself.
So for, for best of all, I mean, again, I would say and there's a
reason. Why you got a year to save up
and all that kind of stuff. It's it's part.
It's mostly a hobby for most people.
Yeah, And, and if you're playing as a hobby and you're like, I, I
do think that it's really important to be honest with
yourself and say, like, do I really have an expectation of
profit in this or am I playing as a hobby?
And like, maybe if I'm maybe, maybe I do have an expectation
of profit, maybe I'm good enough that I have an expectation of
profit, right. And, and that's probably like a
more honest way to approach it for most people.
And if that's the case, then, you know, set aside the amount
that you're willing to spend as entertainment for the year.
And that's probably a healthier way to look at it for most
people rather than like, oh, I'm going to plow $50,000 into best
ball and then I'm expecting to get at least a 10% ROI on my
money and that'll be great. It's like, I mean, really that's
just not a not a realistic thing.
And like it's a pretty high variance exercise, a pretty high
variance, a way to make 10% on your money.
I mean, there's a reason why I played 2300 teams this year,
because the more bullets that you have, the more you can
reduce your variance on a single slate.
But again, it is one slate and all of the outcomes of all of
those 2300 teams that I drafted are correlated outcomes.
So like we saw this this year when things went poorly this
year, like it went poorly for the vast majority of your
portfolio. And that's, that's just kind of
the, the truth about best of all, the fact that it's 1 slate.
I, I would love if we see more stuff kind of like, I mean, my,
my dream for how best ball could evolve over time to make it be
something that is number one better for grinder and #2 better
for the casual player is to shrink the slate size down.
Sure. Do your, do your normal like,
you know, full season basketball stuff.
Obviously you don't have to get rid of that.
But DraftKings does these resurrection tournaments every
single week right now. That's OK, but you're still
tying your money up for the whole season.
And, and it just the time horizon that you're tying it up
for just shrinks by one week every year, right.
And so the, the thing that I'd like to see is give us these
little mini slates like, you know, weeks one through 4, best
of all tournament, weeks 5 through 8, best of all
tournament. Or just do these like rolling
four week tournaments or something, something like that,
or rolling six week even, but shrink the time horizon of how
long you're tying money up so that it's you, you can actually
have multiple slates in a season.
You can have, you know, players have the opportunity to to draft
more and then also this is better for the sites because the
sites don't want your money tied up with them either.
They want you to turn it around and pay more rate to them or do
more pickups or what have you. So I'd love to see if underdog
or DraftKings would come out with these like kind of
abbreviated slates or abbreviated basketball seasons.
I mean, my, my dream dream is you just make it like a, a fake
playoff best ball style format where you have these little mini
5 man rosters and you got to feel that.
And, and you get something in there where if a team loses, an
NFL team loses, those players all just score zeros for the
rest of the tournament. And you kind of have a little
little playoff baseball aspect in there.
But that's probably just my sick obsession with playoff baseball
coming in. Yeah, the only, the only thing
about it turning over more often.
I, I, I do think that, that that's when you could get people
in trouble in bankroll, because then you say like a lot of issue
with DFS is the more if you're playing the same amount and it's
turning over, that's when you get in trouble.
If you're if you're not managing your bankroll properly, I mean
the what it all. What, what, what do we know
about what do we say about a lot of these?
I I did like I just said just to change topics slightly.
I did like this comment. I was like, I like the draft BBM
just so I can complain. You know, I do think people like
to complain. I I had a bad beat last night
and probably not even a bad beat where I needed twenty points
from either Bowers or Bijan in in PPR tight end premium and and
then they were both projected for that.
I needed one of them to hit their hit their ECR projection
and neither did. And so yeah, I, I, yeah, I, I, I
like to complain too. And I do think game.
So we're 30 minutes in. I think do think we should.
Probably we should. Hit the charts I think.
Hit the charts, hit the stats and start chasing.
So this is. On this show.
No, no, we just gloat about our around to advance rates on this
show. So, yeah, so this is our
quarterback shot. I think anybody kind of
listening in at this point kind of gets the idea.
But we're kind of looking at efficiency and volume and
efficiency from who's passing. Well, who's who's volume from
who's getting high expected points from passing and who's
who's rushing. And I know, I remember, I do
know you had you had some notes, the first one about Aaron
Rodgers. Yeah, I mean, he these past two
weeks he's been a Q B1 in fantasy.
He he had rush, he had like legitimate rushing production
this last week, which is just wild.
But he he kind of looks like he's coming on down the stretch,
which feels very strange to me because it was just a handful of
weeks ago where the vibes in The Jets organization just seemed
like they could not be any worse.
And so I'm not sure there's gotta be.
Well, I mean, he had a good game against the Dolphins.
He had a really good game against the Jags and and who,
and I know you have a note here that he's actually his his home
stretch week 16 and 17 opponents are pretty weak too.
Yeah, he gets the Rams and the Bills.
And I mean, the Bills have just been like they've been scoring
at will, but also letting teams score on them at will.
So it seems like it could set up pretty well.
And the Rams are another pretty fantasy friendly match up for
quarterbacks. So I, I mean, this looks like it
could be a pretty fun spot for Rogers down the stretch.
The offense is really concentrated.
It's pretty much all Devante Adams, Garrett Wilson, and then
Breece Hall if he's healthy. So it seems like kind of a fun
spot. I mean like.
Yeah, no. Makes sense?
On your on your advancing teams. Right, makes sense.
So he had he he yeah, he was efficient against the he's been
efficient in the last two weeks. So strong signs of life there
and then not let me look at the let me look at the volume 2.
So just the last, so expected points from passing 15.6 against
Dolphins, 16 against the the Jags.
So like solid volume, solid volume.
I I think he's definitely had higher weeks, but 1516, that's
probably that's, that's that's probably pretty good given how
slow pace they play. Yeah, you want to you want to
talk about slow pace, There's another guy I've got a note on
here. I was really optimistic about
this team coming out of the bye and they had shown some signs of
life. You know, they're they're
trending towards maybe a little bit more pass friendly offense,
throwing a lot more on 1st down than they had previously.
But CJ Stroud and the Texans just I mean, it was really not a
super functional performance by them.
It just it doesn't look great. You've got mixing banged up too
and I they were throwing. Here's here's what's weird,
here's what's weird. Since week 11, their price rate
over expected is it's like close to 10.
I think it's like 99 Percent over expected.
And so like, what's weird is they are so 10% over expected
over the last 55 actual weeks, 4, sorry, four games that
they've played, which I think that seems pretty interesting to
me given how the, the, the, the year started, but just the
efficiency just has not been there.
Yeah, I mean, from watching this game, it it was just like the
offensive line really seems like it is just a a big, big problem
for them. I mean Nico catches 2 touchdowns
and still can't break 20 fantasy points.
Like it it was just a rough game all around.
I mean, Tank Del finally looked, he looked a little better.
They didn't do anything for fantasy.
You think he had like 26 yards or something?
So it's Dalton Schultz gets hurt too and leaves the game.
I didn't see how serious that injury was.
I just, you know, looked like a chest injury might might be ribs
or something like that. I'm not 100% positive.
I haven't seen anything further on that.
But man, I'm I'm pretty concerned about the Texans.
I mean, I guess the the like only hope that I have for them
is that in week 17 they do play the Ravens.
And so maybe this they they stick with this really high pass
rate thing and Joe Mixon still banged up.
And so they they don't lean into the run and the Ravens are able
to just push them enough that the Texans throw a ton and
they're able to be a. They're playing the Ravens this
week. In a week 17.
Week 17 OK, that's pretty interesting just because like
if, if they're can, if they continue this kind of pass happy
streak and then the Ravens defense just makes their passing
attack look good. I I, I I'm pretty troubled by by
like the the the lack of performance.
I it it it it's just troubling because like even last week he
had like 3.25 average time to throw and but his A dot was just
8. I I I certainly like, I
certainly want to lean on like the illustrious college career,
the strong rookie season like that that that's where you want
to put most of the weight rather than like the most recent year.
And but it, it is troubling. I, I, I do, I, I do wonder if if
we're kind of stuck with this kind of thing until that until,
AII guess, may they get a new coaching staff.
Yeah, the, I mean, the thing that I was also concerning about
the Texans is you even when they're playing, when things are
going well, when they're passing is is working and they're
sustaining drives, right. But they shut it down if they
get a lead like when they. Right, right.
You need, you need an offense that's actually going to push
them. You need something like the the
Ravens or the Bills where and they're they're, they're the the
opposing team's offense is going to score points, but the
opposing team defense is going to be bad.
Yeah, so I, I guess there is some, some sliver of hope there
for for them in playoff basketball where they're likely,
you know, they're they're the underdogs in pretty much every
matchup they would have, you know, they'll they're round one
opponent. They might not be the dog, but
if they do survive to Round 2, they're going to be the dog.
And I would, I would think maybe you get circumstances where
they're willing to pass a little bit more they've they've started
to become. Over just yeah, just able to
pass well, 'cause like, like I said, the the last like four
games they actually have been passing in a a good clip.
It's just they haven't been getting it done.
Yeah, yeah. So I, I'm, I'm pretty worried
about them moving on to the last thing I wanted to discuss on the
quarterback chart. This is a really interesting
dynamic for playoff basketball, but it's kind of hard because
the AFC teams that you can draft, there's really like.
So when you look at the Ravens, they're still pretty overpriced.
Now the Ravens conference championship odds improved this
week. So their price, their price
hasn't moved, but by virtue of their conference championship
odds improving just simply because you know, the the Chiefs
are getting weaker, you know, you got the Holmes injury, the
Bills, they're they're still pretty, you know, pretty much
unchanged for their probability of making it to the conference
championship. So the Ravens just basically
consolidated some conference championship probability from
the Steelers is what happened 'cause they got a lot weaker.
So the Ravens price is now closer to fair, but they're
still a little overpriced. But really for the Ravens, it's
like you've got three, maybe 4 pieces.
Then really it's just you got 2 premium pieces in Henry and
Lamar. Then the other AFC teams, like
there's no premium piece for the Bills or the Chiefs, who are the
two favorites to go to the conference championship.
Like the Chiefs have no premium pieces on them, you know, full
stop for fantasy, they just don't produce very many fantasy
points. Like the best piece on the
Chiefs is probably like Travis Kelce, or you could argue
Pacheco, but he's, he's kind of in like a full split with Kareem
Hunt and not looking that much more effective than him, which
is a little concerning. I I definitely think that Kareem
Hunt is undervalued right now. And then the Bills don't have a
premium piece other than Josh Allen.
So you end up in this weird circumstance where if you're
playing the NFC as your primary stack, you're taking ANFC
quarterback. All these AFC teams that are
likely to make the Super Bowl have these kind of less than
fantastic fantasy pieces except for, you know, Josh Allen, who's
the quarterback. And so if you're trying to play
like, say you're playing the Lions or the Eagles to face the
Bills in the Super Bowl, I, I mean, with the Lions, it feels
particularly bad because if it is a Lions, Bills, Super Bowl
and you show up with Jared Goff against Josh Allen, like, aren't
you, aren't you a pretty big underdog here?
Yeah, Yeah, 'cause I mean you're looking at the the two V2 is you
got to have one of Gibbs or Almond raw with your golf and
the Josh Allen team gets to have Josh Allen probably plus James
Cook. And then their third pick could
easily be Jameson Williams, right?
And then they can even get Khalil Shakira the 4th a lot of
the time. And so then you're what?
You're Jamir Gibbs, Jared Goff, Sam Laporta like, or Jamir
Gibbs, Jared Goff, Amari Cooper like.
It seems like a bad 3. D Just by the way, at news just
broke and that Penex is starting on Sunday.
Wow, I mean good for the good for the Falcons for doing that.
Also, holy crap what terrible mismanagement by the Falcons to
find yourself in this situation in the 1st place, right?
Well, it just that it makes the IT makes the contract to Kirk
Cousins bad and but it does. And all the news here is that he
received 90 million guaranteed that 90 million does not go
away. He still gets to keep it and but
it does, I guess it it does vindicate their decision to drop
Penex a little more. It does.
I mean it just it just means that so good on the Falcons for
not, you know, not playing into the sunk cost fallacy and not
being like, well, we can't take Penex because we and Kirk
Cousins already. Like if they found out after the
fact that the Kirk Cousins signing was a horrific mistake,
then they did the best thing they could outside of make that
one horrific mistake. But you do hope that, you know,
as a multi billion dollar organization you would try to
not make this horrific mistake that ties up, you know, a huge
plurality of your salary cap for multiple.
Years, right? And, and we don't have a yeah,
I'm looking, I'm looking at the stats on, on panics this year.
I'm trying to find drop backs. We have 6 panics drop backs this
year. So we don't, we don't really
have a, we don't really have any kind of like sample size here to
work with on like knowing, knowing how he's going to be and
can look up Kirk Cousins. So I, I guess that the, the main
thing with Kirk Hosens is like, for example, they, I think that
Gretsch just messaged me, they only drew 18 passes last night
and they had like an extremely low, even with their high like
good positive game strip and then extremely low pass rate
over expectation. So like they were they they
they've been hiding him. And I think I saw something as
well that they've only had three pass completions come outside
the pocket this year. Yeah, I mean.
He's he's a full on statue. It's.
Just an extreme limitation on the offense.
So I, I, I do hope that that having a younger guy in there
kind of does open things up. And, and then, and I mean, all
my, yeah, all my Bijan teams, all my Drake London teams are
dead. Actually, no, I still, I still
have one that's 100 points off the lead.
In the Fantasy Pros Championship.
So maybe, yeah, maybe Michael Panics unlocks those guys and I
can win a main event ticket or something.
There you go. Well, yeah, I I let's circle
back to the Josh Allen. Like, how do you play the Bills
as a Super Bowl compliment to an NFC quarterback?
It just, it feels like you put yourself in a bad 2V2 or 3V3
with Goff. Certainly.
I mean, the other NFC teams you could do it with, I think, I
think. Really the only order, the only
other NFCQB where the one V1 from Josh Allen to that QB
doesn't absolutely kill you as Jalen Hurts right?
Any, any other QB, you just brought a knife to a gunfight
where like your points drop off from Josh Allen to the next guy.
It's so large that you can't really overcome it, at least in
terms of expectation at skilled position.
I I think that's what it comes down to, right?
Yeah, and I think if you find yourself 'cause sometimes you're
just, you got to play the hand you're dealt.
And sometimes the best thing you can do is I got to, I got to
play Bills as my my opponent for the Super Bowl.
And I'm doing it with a Jordan love or I'm doing it with the
Sam Darnold, Right. And I think that if that is the
situation that you're in, your round one pick has to be one of
these elite, you know, advance rate helpers like Saquon Barkley
or like you can take an almond raw because you can carry an
almond raw. If you're if you're playing, you
know, Vikings or Packers, you're gonna have plenty of round one
firepower. So you can get almond raw to
kind of help you and say Lions die in the conference
championship round. But I think it's pretty
critically important that you're using James Cook as your direct
leverage off Josh Allen if you are going to play Bills without
Josh Allen, like if you're playing one of these other NFC
quarterbacks, so. I I guess just to just to play
devil's advocate a little bit and the last couple of weeks the
the Bills opposing quarterbacks have actually played lights out
and kind of have kept pace with them in terms of fantasy points.
You had Stafford, you and Jared Goff.
So even these kind of like just competent pocket passers, so not
like not particularly fantasy friendly.
I'm still put up the kind of huge tweaks.
So I guess that that's the only kind of devil's advocate.
I was like, you know, like maybe with your projection that you're
in trouble, but you're not dead in the water.
Yeah, you're certainly not dead in the water.
It's not something we're like, if that's my only choice, I'm
just like, I'm. I'm not even going to bother
with this draft. It's dead anyway, right?
Still going to try, but if I find myself in that scenario,
I'm really trying hard to use a guy like James Cook or at the
very least some Bills running back that's going to have the
possibility to take rushing touchdowns to prevent Josh Allen
from sucking up all the touchdowns.
And yes, it's a, you're talking about something that's thin.
But, you know, if you're playing like a, you know, Packers to the
Super Bowl against the Bills, you got Jordan Love, You're
playing Vikings to the Super Bowls.
You got Sam Darnold. Like, I mean, if the Bills make
the Super Bowl, the the the Super Bowl lineups is going to
be like extremely heavy at Josh Allen.
Yeah. And, and the really the big
problem too is it's super easy to get those bills like with,
with pretty much every bill that you want, you know, they don't,
they're not terribly expensive and a lot of people will just
leave them to you because not many of them are very appealing
fantasy pieces. So you could very easily start
Josh Allen, Justin Jefferson, Josh Jacobs.
And then if it is one of those like slightly less likely NFC
teams that makes the Super Bowl, then they have all the insane
pieces that you do and they just have the Josh Allen 1V1 off of
your quarterback. So it's, it's rough.
I've been thinking of it a lot 'cause it's a position you find
yourself in often where you know, you're, you're wondering
how I, I dig myself out of this with the Bills as my secondary
team, But I, I thought it was worth talking about here.
But we can, we can move on to the running back chart.
We've. Yeah, yeah.
I, I, I was just about to message you in the chat.
Hey, we're, we're approaching the one hour in mark.
And so this week we are starting with the running back expected
fantasy points on efficiency. So we're on strike against the
the snap rate chart or instead instead of, instead of what did
we do last week? We, we just kind of referenced
expected points when we talked through the, the snap rate
chart. Maybe we can do the opposite
this week. Yeah.
I mean, I think this certainly wasn't just a complete accident
in me ordering the charts in the wrong way.
That's absolutely not what happened.
Very intentional, but I do think that a lot of the roll stuff is
pretty defined at this point in the season, you know, other than
shake UPS due to injury or things like that.
I mean we can certainly call those out.
So it is nice to just see kind of what have you done for me
lately here 'cause this is a rolling four week sample for
each running back where we can see where their expected points
are AT and their efficiency. I mean, no surprise that Chase
Brown is incredible here. But the one that has the biggest
role change is, you know, going forward gonna be pretty
exciting. Is Jamere Gibbs here where?
I mean, if you look at where David Montgomery is on the
chart, where they're both getting about the same expected
fantasy points from Rushing and Montgomery's getting a good
amount of expected receiving fantasy points.
Even if you say that only 20% of this goes to Gibbs and the rest
goes to Craig Reynolds or the rest flows through the passing
game, right? Jamere Gibbs only gets 20% of
what David Montgomery is is getting.
That's an extra 3 expected fantasy points per game, which
is a lot like it it it. He's going to have like, I think
he's going to have 24 mid 20s expected points down the
stretch. Yeah, I I agree.
So, Jamir Gibbs. And then he's going to stock
efficiency on top of that, right?
Most likely. I mean, we're we're running into
a spot here where the guys who are quote UN quote, meeting the
legendary running back profile in these final two weeks of the
fantasy playoffs are Jameer Gibbs and Chase Brown.
Those are the legendary running backs to close the season out.
Obviously they didn't do it the whole way, but if you're saying
who do you want this week? Who should be projected for the
most points? It's gonna be Gibbs and Chase
Brown. Like those are the guys getting
the absurd workload. And if you look at the size of
their data point here, they're doing it efficiently too.
Like they are handling huge volume and they are efficient
with it. Right, yeah and yeah, makes them
makes sense for sure like just 25 expected points.
A game is like such like an absurd one, yeah.
But I I don't see how you get like get to any other answer.
Right the I had a question for you about playoff best fall
because the Buccaneers are one of the better spots in playoff
basketball right now. The tough part is Mike Evans is
overpriced. People understand Buck's good,
me want Buck's, therefore me take Mike Evans very early.
And so Mike Evans goes like in the fourth round sometimes,
which is just absurd. They're not, you know, their
Super Bowl probability is next to nothing.
They're very, very low to actually go deep in the
tournament, which is what you really need.
But as far as round one, advance rate boosters like the Bucks are
pretty incredible and their running backs too, are really
interesting. So I wanted to ask you like I
know, I know you're gonna be on board with taking Bucky Irving
as a way to boost your advance rate round one in these, you
know, situations where you need this round one running backs.
You got a bye week running back or what have you, or even you
don't have bye week running backs.
You just end up really weak at running back because you're in
the back half of the board and you do something like Jared
Goff, Almonra or Jalen Hurts, A.J.
Brown. And oftentimes a good running
back that's playing in round one doesn't come back to you.
And so you end up having to do like 3 really late running backs
like, you know, Kenneth Gainwell, Craig Reynolds, that
type of stuff. And then you're looking at God,
Gee, what am I going to do for, for week 1?
And that's where Bucky Irving kind of slots in.
But I I wanted to ask you if Bucky is gone.
Right. So he's he's the easy button
answer are. You OK with Rashad White if you
really need that round one help? Yeah, yeah.
And I mean, it's not as fun, but like he he he he's an important
passing then back for Dome and he certainly has big, big weeks.
So I think you're, you're, you're probably let me check in
on, let me check in on the expected points trend for Rashad
White. Yeah, I believe he's on the
other chart. If you do want to just switch
that one and pull it up. Yeah.
I'll, I'll switch that one. I just, I also kind of want to
see the most recent trends right here.
So you're looking at, you're looking at kind of mid, low to
mid teens expected points and yeah, somewhere somewhere
between 10 and 15 expected points a game.
And, and now that's PPR. So you gotta, I, I guess you
have to, you have to cut that a little bit.
So you're probably we'll just call it like 8 to 12 expected
hot PPR points. And that's not I, I don't think
that's very sexy for like a week one thing, but it's not the end
of the world. And and and maybe you get 20 and
it helps you move on. Yeah, yeah, he's I, I think he's
fine. I basically just wanted your
your permission to click Rashad White because he feels really
gross. The other one that's starting to
come on now. But I mean, you want to talk
about overpriced people are, are treating the Rams like they're
God's gift to playoff bestball. I mean, the the crazy thing
about the Rams is yes, they are the favorite to make the
playoffs now out of their division, but I mean their
probability is still far from certain.
I mean just. Like it's like a 6040 split
between the Rams and and and who's the other one?
Yeah, the the Rams are 60%. We have Seahawks is 36 percent
30. Six.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's the Seahawks.
And that's that's subject to change based on if Gino.
Is well, like, that's not. What's that?
That's subject to change based on if Gino is is healthier.
OK. But that's basically 6040.
Yeah, which? In our brain is like, oh, that's
a clear leader, but it's not that far from 5050 either,
right? It's a lot closer to 5050 than
it is to 100. Right.
But yeah, I mean like San Francisco all what
mathematically eliminated Arizona only 4%.
So you've got, you know, Ram Seahawks here and it's it's
pretty darn close to a coin flip.
But yeah, 6040 thereabouts. I would say like if I wanted to,
if you were going to kind of take away Arizona's probability
in San Francisco and just consolidate them, I'd probably
consolidate it more to LA And then if you want to just say,
oh, Gino. 35 is what you were saying.
Yeah, and even if Gino comes back, he's he's gonna be worse
cause of the injury. So maybe it's 7030, but still
like 70% is right on the borderline of where I feel good
about drafting these guys and usually I just won't bother when
they're that, you know, there. I'll wait for it to, you know,
condense a little bit and get the a little bit closer to what
we're gonna, you know, see is the actual seating down the
road. But the Rams are already getting
priced up. Like, for example, the.
Usual argument of you'll still get them cheap later does not
exist. No, yeah, the the Rams, I.
Mean they were so excited to drop the Rams.
Because Puka Puka has an ADP of 30.
Kyron has an ADP of 37. You know, so you're, you're not
getting these guys. Now we've got an algorithm that
prices players based on their likelihood of actually
contributing points in the meaningful rounds and how likely
they are to actually score points and, and how many points
they would score. And so with our stuff, Kyron
comes out as worth right about the 46th to 49th pick, somewhere
in that range. So we think Kyron is worth right
about a, you know, you could sell me on a late 7th, you know,
but he's really like an eighth round pick and people are taking
him, you know, pick 37, so. Eight, yeah, or 37?
You're right. 37 So 2 rounds overvalued.
Yeah. So it's it's really tough.
Now, here's here's the thing, though.
Often times in playoff basketball, the opportunity cost
is not what it seems. You might say like, oh, if you
take Kyron there, you're passing on like Amari Cooper.
And you really need that. You know, Amari, and I believe
Amari Cooper has a much higher ADP than that.
But the Bills guys just fall because people will let them
slide. And so you might be thinking,
oh, you missed out on this guy who actually plays in the Super
Bowl. I will say there are certain
circumstances where if you need this round one advance, I'm not
going to be quite as shy about reaching for it.
What I would say is like don't just draft the Rams just to
draft the Rams. So if you don't need that help
in round one, it's one of the worst picks you can make because
of how overpriced it is. But if you have BI teams, you
can certainly justify drafting them early because oftentimes
your last pick or your last two picks might just be these like
punt pieces that fill out your last or last two guys on your
Super Bowl lineup. And you're taking a guy like
Kareem Hunt and Tim Patrick, you know, or you're doing like.
Speaking of of of Murray Cooper dough, what happened to him in
in Week 15? So I, I guess he played 32
snaps. So he ran the Reds.
He just did not get targeted. No targets.
Yeah, I I think, I mean, really, that's wild.
I think Week 14 was just a a crazy anomaly more than
anything. It wasn't like this is the new
trend. Amari Cooper is now integrated
into the offense. It was just the Bills were in
super comeback mode, right? They were, they were trying hard
to come back all Week 14. And then you just get all of
this passing and Amari Cooper happened to be there as a warm
body. He's going to catch him.
Well, he also had 25% targets per run in, in week 13, but he's
kind of been consistently in this 50 to 60% route run rate.
And then actually I, I, I can't tell from this report how many,
how many routes he ran and. I can I can see if I can pull
that up. So he had he had 15 routes last
week. OK.
Of his snaps, 15 were 15 were routes he played.
He played almost double dots. So he's kind of used as a yeah,
as a run blocker. And the Josh Allen had 37 drop
backs. So how many routes did I say he
had? He had 15.
So he had a good bit less. So he had like 40% routes.
Yeah, right. Right.
About 40%, give or take. Yeah, that's fuck, I mean, I
we're on the running back chart and but that feels really close
to me to like the the role player that you tack on at the
end of a a Super Bowl run stuck. Right, He's he's not his his
cost is a little much for what he is.
And and yeah, like, sure, he's probably a better bet to to
outscore, you know, Keon Coleman or something.
But like, is he really that much?
I mean, like Dalton Kincaid probably has a better floor than
Amari Cooper because when Dalton Dalton Kincaid gets so much
stuff just like forced to him, he'll get his right.
Amari Cooper can can totally goose you.
So it's just the really, this is just more like systemic for the
bills, Like all these bills pieces kind of stink.
It's it's literal. Do you think, Yeah, the reason
Amari played less is because of Kian Coleman?
Actually I. Mean it could, because he was
finally. Active.
Yeah, I do wonder if so Amari was at 60% when they were
missing him. He drops to 40.
And by the way, Keon Coleman's only at 54% in his active game.
Like I do wonder if he gets if he gets healthier and maybe
plays better off the injury, if that kind of crushes Amari.
Now the pure baseless, not baseless speculation, but pure
speculation. That's the the range of
possibilities there like that. I, I, I, I I do think that's
something to keep an eye on. Yeah, yeah, definitely a good
call. Let's go back to running back
charts and kind of close these ones out and then we can move on
to tight end charts. Actually stay on that last one
here 'cause the the next guy we're gonna talk about is
surprisingly a deviation from talking about playoff best ball.
Yes, we're gonna talk about something that could be helpful
for setting your season long fantasy roster or if you've got
teams in the Sprint or even playing DFS.
So Rico Dowdle coming on at the right time, I.
Love how you framed that it wasn't just a reason to talk
about Rico Dowdle. It was like, oh, we're really
trying to help you with your with your season long lineup
Saturday. No, no.
I mean, I, I think he's pretty interesting.
He's getting the vast majority of the work now, Like the
Cowboys are doing the most Cowboys thing imaginable.
Or they're like ruining their draft pick that they could have
gotten and just like getting into the round the range of the
draft where, like, this class is probably not.
I mean, from what I've heard, it's not supposed to be
particularly deep. So they're like just swimming
out into the ocean where there's absolutely no help and just
setting themselves up to drown, you know, for yet another year.
But they're they're trying and they seem motivated like this is
the best game from their defense in quite a while.
Like their pass rush was getting home.
Rico Dowdle getting a ton of carries, ton of yards, didn't
find the end zone, but 149 rushing yards pretty good.
Zeke is all but an afterthought. Hunter Lipke is actually.
More like a fullback. Now they're like, it took the
Cowboys damn near the entire season to figure out Rico Dowdle
was their their primary running back and like basically needs to
be a workhorse, but they figured it.
Out so, so he's, he's on the field 71% of or he was on the
field 71% of snaps in week 15 and he had 12.1 expected points
and Zeke was on the field just 20% of time, 20% of snaps.
And so yeah, I, I like 12 expected points per game is like
a border. It's it's like that's like a
borderline or B1 like that's where you get that.
I don't, I'm not sure exactly where that ranks among how
somebody would would project running backs, but it's it's
very startable. He he'll I would bet he's gonna
project as like a mid to high end RV 2 this next week, maybe a
low in RV 1:00. But you get the Cowboys get the
bucks on a Sunday night game. So this is a showdown slate.
I mean Rico Dowdle captain is gonna be popular.
Rico Dowdle flex is gonna be popular.
They don't I don't believe they have the pricing out for it yet.
I'm gonna. I'll pull up the the DraftKings
lobby. I told you, we're gonna actually
talk about, you know how how useful Rico Dowdle is.
This isn't just like a random Rico Dowdle victory lap out of
nowhere. Certainly not.
We'd never do such a thing. We don't.
Think for that. No, no, no, no, no, no.
I'm I. This is a serious show about
that. Only listen, I'm a principled
man. I'd never victory lap one of my
highest own players. That was a fantastic process
pick. Absolutely incredibly
undervalued player, you know, being priced at his absolute
floor. Yeah, we we wouldn't talk about
Rico Dowdle unless you really thought that it was vital to
your success as a. Fantasy.
That's what we're about here on stat chasing.
I think that's all the useful Rico Dowdle talk.
They don't even have that showdown slate up yet, so I
can't. OK, we can go to tight ends.
All right, moving to tight ends. Well, I know everybody.
Everybody who had Rico Dal was really worried about playing
them. They were they.
Needed God, we've we've given you confidence now.
Actually, no, we're skipping. We're skipping and this chart
kind of nice still saying tuba up there even though they had
they had that rough game. He's still got that chokehold on
on snaps. Tuba buried me in DFS this week,
though I don't want to see his name.
You're like a spurned, spurned lover.
I mean, really, really. What I did, though, was I
absorbed all of the run bad so that Shady could have the run
good at the Nashville Live final.
So I'm just, you know, I'm the truest friend someone could ask
for. Falling on the run.
Bad grenade for Shady so that he could shift.
That's so kind of you. 1.5 mil yeah, I mean these are the
things that he he took second place and he had I think he also
got like 9th and had some other he had 8.
So I it was a good day. It was a good day.
Yeah, second place in the live final.
I bet that's still that. That's a lot of money.
Yeah the second was worth a mil and 1/4 and then everything all
together was like 1 1/2. So shout out to Shady.
Pretty pretty fantastic he was the only dude.
This is how sick Shady is. The only guy to play Breece Hall
in the entire live final is literally the one line up of 200
that played Breece Hall and it almost worked out.
He had a Aaron Rodgers double with Breece Hall and Devante
Adams. Those pretty nuts.
Unfortunately it also had Chuba so I couldn't save him from all
the Chuba run bad, but I did enough.
I did my part. And one, one thing, I guess one
note I had on the on the tight end chart here.
So George Kittle had a pretty muted game, but that kind of
belies the the under the underlying usage was like for
this like really strong George Kittle game where he had 120
area yards, 7 targets, like 21% targets for run 70 and A dot.
Like the George Kittle game could have been fantastic.
And that usage is so good. So just because we had like a
more middling game, I still think he's like a very, yeah, a
very crucial. He's going to have a big say by
the end of the year. Yeah, he's the one.
He's the one you're excited to have.
I think the 49ers still could make some noise here in these
final two weeks. I mean, they're I would just
never count them out for being able to be productive on
offense, right? The Rams game was really weird.
It was a, you know, monsoon in the first half and that really
kind of set the table for the game.
Just was a really, really ugly game.
Pretty terrible game to watch. But going back to the tight ends
here, one that we have to talk about who I think is gonna be
very relevant for all formats here coming down the stretch and
was pretty pivotal for anyone who won big at DFS this last
week is Bretton Strange. Now he's he's on the backup
tight ends chart for for right now because we're using a
rolling four week sample here. But if you could pull up his
specific numbers for last week, I think.
He 84 percent, 84% run, 28% targets per run, and that's at
12 targets for for 52 area yards.
I mean, he's basically a one for one replacement for Evan Ingram
here. Yeah, yeah, He had that like 4.3
A dot, so like a A1 for one. I do think he had, didn't he
have a spot? He had a spot start during the
year where his usage numbers were also incredible.
It was it was the game where Evan Ingram was late scratched
with a hamstring and I believe they were playing, I can't
remember who it was, I want to say Browns or it was someone
with a really strong pass rush. And we've seen Doug Peterson
does this shit where when when they're facing.
Well, his A dot in that game was actually really high.
He had like a 15-A dot. Yeah.
He had like 8 targets, would have like 130 area yards.
He like LED tight ends in area yards that week.
Now he didn't catch very many, many of them.
It wasn't a very good game. But like, hey, and we, we, we
certainly, we certainly appreciate strong tight end
usage. Yeah.
So. Strange is Strange is a really,
really good one. For like lots of, lots of those
spots are tight ends, like they have the spot start and then
it's not really a spot start. They're like they're in the roll
around between like 3 different guys and then have 50% route.
Another guy has 30, then the next guy has like 20 or
something like that. And so it, it, it's not on the
radar because he had such a strong week, but the, the usage
is very strong. Right.
Yeah, don't. I guess the actual thing here is
don't just think it was a one hit wonder like the they used to
be strong like this. This could train for the rest of
the season. Pick them up in your home league
if you're still in the playoffs. Yeah.
Don't don't like, like Zach said, Don't said, Oh, he just
did that once. Like it's, it's pretty, it's a
he's a pretty helpful piece. Speaking of tight ends that are
coming on due to injury to their teammates, you get the Zach Ertz
concussion. Now, even prior to the
concussion, he was actually turning in, you know, a lower
snap rate than he's seen for the rest of the season.
So it looked like they were. The plan was to get some other
guys more involved, at least with snaps, but the other guys
didn't really get much in the way of targets.
I think Sonata only got 1 target.
So in in the full game he had 54% of routes.
So I have to imagine if, if, what quarter did Zach Arts go in
and was it the first or second? I want to say it was the second
quarter, it might have been the 1st.
But I have to imagine he's in that 70 to 80% range over full
game. And but yeah, we need, we need,
we need Benson, not targets and for it to count.
That's actually, that's actually fantastic news 'cause I still
have a, the Bensonhot team that's alive.
I've 2 Bensonhot teams. Let me see.
Yeah, I've 2 Bensonhot teams. So if we had a, if we had a
Bensonhot Hammer game out of nowhere, that'd be pretty
fantastic. Yeah, I, I, I could get, I could
be into that. I think my lone surviving BBM
team is A4 tight end team. It's literally the only four
tight end team I drafted out of 2300 teams.
It's it is the one four tight end team I drafted.
The the four tight ends are all crap, though.
It's, you know, Bensonaut, Isaiah Likely, Luke Musgrave,
who maybe he'll play, you know, and I think.
Mike Kasiki so right, Oh, oh, we have a, we have one of our
shared teams is events in our team.
It's kind of tight end premium, but we have Trey McBride, which
helps. But then our only other tight
ends are Benson not and Michael Meyer.
So events and not hit would go pretty damn hard.
Yeah, so oh man, I can't believe it all comes down to Sanat here
heading into the semi finals. It all comes back to Ben Sanat.
Think of. Now Do.
You remember how smart we were when we were on Ben Sanat and
like the way too early stuff and you and I were taking him in
like the 20th round on FFPC all the time and then.
All the time we go undrafted and.
Then you were so smart, Draco. And then there was a there was a
weekend. The weekend after the draft,
after he went, was a second round and you could still get
him in like the 18th and 19th rounds.
And we're like, oh, these morons, they're asleep at the
wheel. He he screamed up fast too.
He went up to like the 13th, you know, right, 14th round pretty
quick. But you know what?
Give me one. Spike week, and it's all worth
it. Oh yeah, I mean, it would be
incredible. I would love to get a Ben Sinati
into the finals. I OK hang on though we need to
re enter the realm of reality and leave the realm of opium For
Bensonaut though how likely do you think it is like OK here
here you go Bensonaut number of targets over under 2 1/2.
If if Zach Gertz isn't playing, I'd probably put it at like 3
1/2. OK, I I would have taken the
under on 2 1/2. Oh really?
It with no Zach Hertz. Yeah.
The under. Yeah, 'cause they'll use the
other guys too. They'll use.
Yeah, but like they don't actually like the other guys are
is like is like John Bates. Right.
I mean, so here's the thing, you need him.
The problem is he needs to earn the targets in real time like he
has to. Yeah, but don't don't forget,
this guy's a stud. I know, I know he's.
The best player for Kent for Kansas State.
He he, yeah, he listen, I I don't doubt that if they get him
the ball early in the game, he could flash enough to make them
be like, maybe we should get this guy the ball a little more.
But the problem is like he might not get the ball till maybe it's
the third quarter when he sees his first target.
And then they're like, oh shit, he's got a little juice.
It's just they've been so slow to use him for anything that
like you would think if he's like exploding and practice or
flashing or showing a bunch, like they'd be a little bit more
excited to try and get him going.
So I'm I'm trying to not go fully opium and say that it's
just the sonat eruption week. But you know what?
This is going to be so fun to see clipped next week when
Bensonat gets 10 targets for 8 receptions, 122 yards and two
touchdowns because he's just a yak freak.
So I'm I'm looking forward to the clip where I'm I'm.
Pretty as long as he's he's lined up.
If he's lined up on the right hand side of the field, he's
getting 10 targets. If he's lined up on the left
hand side of the field most of the game, he's getting one
target. It's Jover.
I mean, shit, maybe they line him up as like a fullback sum.
We get a little little bent snot fullback action.
Yeah, I, I, it, it honestly, it's hard to know, but I mean,
obviously tight end is an important part of the offense
and, and that tight end was accurate, but it is important.
They don't have a lot of good receivers.
It is an it is an explosive offense.
So like that, that is a little bit of hope.
Like I don't have like a strong statistical background.
Like normally what you want is like, Oh yeah.
When they've played on his turf, but run has been strong like,
and now the usage is climbing up.
You want to be able to say that I cannot.
And and, and tight end is so much what the coach's plan is so
that you're right, it it does make it harder.
And but if if he's running all the routes all the game and,
and, and, and they have to come up with some game plan without
Zach Hertz, then I don't know you could, you could see
something. So to to put a bow on it, we
have very little evidence or anything at all based in
reality. Underground.
His college. His college highlight reel.
Right, Nothing from the NFL to tell us that Ben Sanat would
score any number of meaningful fantasy points this week.
But damn it, I hope he does right.
Pretty much pretty. Much last last tight end before
we move on here Tucker craft one of the best picks for playoff
best ball on DraftKings. I mean where you have to start a
tight end in this format. It almost make tight makes tight
ends. It has like a pseudo tight end
premium effect almost where they just become so important you
have. To you're talking about
DraftKings draftking playoff best ball designated tight end.
Yeah, and he. Goes for free probably.
He doesn't go for free. He goes in like the middle
rounds, but he is more valuable than every Packers receiver
because the Packers receivers are numerous and the tight end
spot is mandatory and he plays in round one and he has decent
conference championship odds and a decent Super Bowl equity.
So like he is a really, really strong pick.
He is basically almost on par with TJ Hawkinson.
Hawkinson has a little bit better, more consistent fantasy
production than him. Part of that, though, is relying
on last year's Hawkinson to say like, hey, this is kind of what
we see for this guy. I mean, this last week for
Hawkinson, he was really like, he wasn't a major part of the
offense at all, you know, So but I, I do think, you know, if a
gun to my head, like, who do I want just for raw fantasy
points? I want TJ Hawkinson over Tucker
Kraft like all the time. And and you can I mean, even on
the chart here you can see it. TJ Hawkinson 20% targets per
route run 8.6 A dot. He's on the field less, but
again, you could say part of that is just him still being
eased back from the injury. Tucker Craft only a 14% targets
per route run 5.1 A dot is on the field a lot.
But really? I think you have those block and
release routes where the way he has to score points is he
catches it short and then just bulldozes everybody.
Right, right. So it's he's, he's really, the
reason he's valuable is 'cause he'll probably play for a long
time in the playoffs. His team is good.
They, they should be around for at least a round or two, if not
3. And if you get really lucky
they're, they make it to the Super Bowl, right?
So that's why he's good. And then also he's a tight end
and he is very likely the tight end on that team.
This is subject to change though.
Like if Luke Musgrave actually comes back this week because
he's he's eligible to return now.
So don't I guess to pour cold water on my own.
Like Tucker craft is so undervalued.
If Luke Musgrave comes back this week and starts eating into
Tucker Craft and they both become like these kind of
rotational guys or they're splitting stuff close to even,
it's very bad for both of them. And then they just both become
like total dark throw. You know, you punt the tight
end, which is a pretty viable thing to do in DraftKings
playoff basketball just because how hard it is to advance.
It's one of six advance. And the way that lots of the
less informed drafters draft on DraftKings has a bend towards
trying to advance out of round one and taking all the players
that are are good fantasy players like, you know, roster
construction be damned. So the punt tight end is kind of
nice because the opportunity cost of taking tight ends early
where their appropriate value is for these guys that can actually
score and separate the position is pretty steep.
You end up paying like a pretty hefty premium for that.
You know, you're you're often times choosing a good tight end
over a really good running back who's going to score way more
raw points than them and probably be able to help you
advance better. So anyway, that I did feel like
it was important to talk about Kraft and and then the Packers
tight end situation as a whole with respect to playoff
basketball. Yeah, yeah, makes make make
sense for sure. And so we're, we're, we're
moving on to receiver, right? Yep, let's hit receiver here.
And so your first note about receiver was Mike I, I said no,
your first note was Malik Neighbors.
Yeah, I mean, he's he's the most QB proof receiver, you know,
like he he's in that tier of receivers that are just the most
QB proof. Like he's up there with CD Lamb,
he's up there with Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase.
Like this guy is just an absolute target monster.
Like, dude, he has the highest weighted targets per route run
in the league. Like this guy is absolutely
absurd. He's playing with guys that have
I mean, really no, guys that don't belong in the NFL are
throwing him the ball and he's still managing to put up
somewhat decent fantasy performances.
Really what what I guess this is like how how is this actionable?
He's gonna he's gonna still be priced like to a place where
it's not like there's no there's not gonna be some secret on ADFS
slate where like you get to play Malik neighbors and he's so
mispriced. Really.
It's just a reminder for next year that Malik neighbors with
any kind of hope for the giants quarterback situation.
Like if the Giants get I mean, and they they kind of have to
right the Giants, there will be someone new.
Playing Sanders is like wearing Giants gear.
Like all the time. You you think it's him 'cause.
I don't know, but I, I think, I think it hasn't not been a thing
where he just been wearing Dion's gear or is that a
different thing? I don't know.
I'm not I'm not that plugged in on that.
But he could definitely be a Raider as well.
The the problem is I think the quarterbacks next year kind of
stink outside of Sanders. Cam Ward is good too.
I think Cam Ward is hot ass. He can have me on record for
that one. Think that guy was terrible.
Yeah. OK.
Cam New Cam Ward will be super fortunate if he is as good as
Cam Newton was in his last year with the Patriots.
That is much like an aggressive take.
Dude, he, I, I went to a game in person and watched him play.
You're not hitting me with the. I saw the game, I was there.
Dude, I, I'm just, I'm telling you like it was the least it, it
was so painful. I was like, why am I subjecting
myself to this? Like this is not it was.
I've seen better quality quarterback play at high school
games, you know, like it's bad. Like there's there is nothing,
there is nothing redeeming about his his game to me.
But so but even if even if the giants got Cam Ward, the guy
that I just said was hot ass cheeks that I think is a
terrible quarterback, I still think it's an upgrade for Malik
neighbors. And so my point is Malik
neighbors probably should be a round one best well pick next
year. And I don't know that he will
be. I think you get enough giant
stink on him that he manages to stay in like the second round
and he's just a guy that I'll have a absolute boatload of.
So the other guy that I think is going to be someone worth
talking about here more for like DFS purposes.
But we talked about his quarterback already and the
friendly schedule that they've got coming up.
But Devante Adams, I mean, huge performance, almost crosses the
200 yard mark. I mean, him and Aaron Rodgers
kind of look like they're having some fun again.
So I'm wondering if Devante Adams is just the playoff hammer
here where you just get him and him and Aaron say, you know
what? This, this might be truly the
last hurrah for both of us. You know, let's just let's go
out on our shield here, see if we can do some fun stuff.
I I would not be surprised at all.
I mean, you saw it this last week too, where Adams looks like
he scores the touchdown. They call it back.
The very next play is a fade to Devante Adams.
If if you told me that the The Jets get 6 attempts at the goal
line and or 6 plays that they run at the goal line next play
or next game. If you told me five of them
where Devante Adams fades, I would not be the least bit
surprised. Like this just might be like the
most Aaron Rod, like turn up the Aaron Rodgers hyper focus his
guy. Like target one dude.
Like be the most greedy for touchdowns.
Like this was for sure a thing back when he was with the
Packers where you'd get the Packers on the goal line.
You're like, yes, I'm going to get a touchdown from Aaron Jones
here. He's going to run it.
And it's like, Nope, Aaron Rodgers wants to throw a
touchdown. So he's just decided that
they're throwing the ball instead of running it.
And Aaron Rodgers, just the touchdown vulture to end all
touchdown vultures. I wouldn't.
It wouldn't be the most surprising thing in the world if
that's the way we saw it play out.
What do you think? They're best buds.
He's gotten at least 10 targets in the last three games, so and
certainly seems like it. Certainly seems like it.
I sure sure hope so because my only surviving 555 team has
Devante Adams on it so that'd be great.
If if he can just go out and hang another 40 burger, I'd be
so happy. Wanted to talk about two
receivers together here. Really it's just more of a team
level thing. But the Bengals, I mean, the the
Bengals receivers just both had OK days last this last week.
Really, they were both like very close to having great days.
Jamar Chase 4 yards shy of 100, so just shy of the bonus on
DraftKings. T Higgins 12 shy of the bonus
Jamar Chase just barely short of another touchdown 2 gets stopped
at like the one yard line. So the the Bengals are just so
close to having a monster day through the air.
Now Chase Brown ends up the beneficiary of that a little
bit. He gets the the touchdown on the
goal line instead. But the the thing that I think
is like of note here is Joe Burrow was on the sideline after
they, you know, hung, what was it, 37 points on the Titans And
he was pissed. Joe Burrow was like visibly
upset. And now the Bengals are, I
believe, like all but mathematically eliminated.
Let me look at their playoff probability.
We've got them as 3% to make the playoffs.
So all but mathematically eliminated.
This looks like a team. And not to keep them playing.
Yeah, yes, this this team is on a mission and their mission is
to make the real life playoffs. But the the actual mission that
they are set up to be successful for is to win your fantasy
league. Like the Bengals look like any
team that you have with Bengals. I mean, Bengals onslaughts have
got to be like one of the things you're the most happy to see on
an advancing basketball team or on a, you know, a team that's in
the playoffs right now. Just it's so concentrated.
It's all Jamar Chase T Higgins and Chase Brown and and Chase
Brown is active in the passing game too.
So like you, you get like Joe Burrow can just go absolutely
nuts at these guys. And you know, back on our
quarterback chart, we we've stopped talking about Joe Burrow
for the last couple weeks because we were just talking.
About it's it's not news that's why it's not noteworthy like
there's no like stop, we're going to UN air that's going to
change anyone's opinion on Joe Burrow.
We were early on them but to me it's like when something is just
consensus then. Right there there's no reason to
talk about him. He's the best pocket passer set
up for the rest of the way. So all right, the last guy I
want to talk about on this chart, we, we talked about a lot
of Packers guys, but I want to talk about Romeo Dobbs.
The the Packers are so spread out, but it does, I mean, like
I, I, if you ask me, gun to my head, who the best receiver on
the Packers is, it's Jaden Reed. But the Packers really seem to
not want to deploy him as a full time player.
They they really only want to use him slot only.
And so because Dobbs is the one that's getting this 85% to 90%
route share, he ends up being the one that I would say you
could count on the most for fantasy.
Now, it's not to say that he's going to be consistent.
It's kind of a crapshoot with the Packers receivers.
But he goes really late in playoff best ball.
Like he goes after Jaden Reed a lot of times he's after
Christian Watson. But I think Romeo Dobbs is kind
of like the Packers receiver I want to make sure I have on my
team. He was the big upset guy in in
in playoff FFBC contest last year wasn't he?
Where a lot of people liked Jaden Reed and then it was the
Romeo Dubs show. Yeah, so yeah, definitely,
definitely think Dubs is interesting here.
Wanted to shout him out but we. And he's fine as a player.
He's like, I don't think he's incredible or anything, but like
he he, he gets the job done is what I'd say.
Right. A really, I mean, really the
thing that's like the biggest limiter for him is Josh Jacobs.
You need, you just need the Packers to be trailing and then
all of a sudden, like all these receivers get a lot more
interesting. You need Packers to to just be
forced to stop running this fucking 12 personnel stuff that
they're doing with these two tight ends for, you know, better
blocking for Josh Jacobs. Like, give me these three wide
receiver sets before, goddamnit. And then your your kind of note
was that you wanted to talk about Mike Evans as well.
Yeah, I mean, we, I mentioned him earlier in the context of
playoff basketball where people just like gravitate towards him
as a way to open up the Bucks. I mean, he he looks like he's a
man on a mission to get to that 1000 yard mark to end the
season. Like Baker has been one of the
better quarterbacks in the league this season.
Like not just like 01 of the better values when he's going
late. Like Baker looks like a
legitimate bona fide good quarterback.
Like you asked me right now, straight up, who would I rather
have on my team both for fantasy football and real life?
Give me Baker Mayfield over Patrick Mahomes.
Like I'm sorry if that. In real life.
Yeah, in real life too. He's been playing better than
him in real life, straight up. Like there's not a.
It starts to have been better. Mahomes, Mahomes is less
accurate. He's missing like the balls that
Mahomes keeps missing that make people so frustrated.
He's not connecting deep. Like where he Mahomes just seems
like anytime that there's a deep pass or anything where it's like
he's having to fit it in a window or something.
He's just so there's such an overabundance of caution and and
when stuff like this happens, like often times there's some
underlying thing that we as fans don't know that's going on it,
mate. Maybe Mahomes is dealing with an
injury that they've been covering up the whole season
where he just really isn't comfortable with his ability to
kind of place it in a tight window downfield.
And so he's doing the smart thing.
He's like, fuck, turning all these balls over.
I'm I'm throwing it. So if I miss, I miss.
So it's incomplete. I'm not missing to where it's
intercepted, right. So I never want to like and
immediately say like, oh, Mahomes is washed, it's over for
him. But right now with what's going
on with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, like he he is not
playing as well as Baker Mayfield.
And that's that is the truth of it.
He certainly could turn it on in the playoffs like I'm not.
Right. I was going to say like that.
That's a take that could like age like milk.
Oh for sure, for sure. I'm not saying it's even
guaranteed to continue, but if you made me bet on it right now,
like who is gonna be the quarterback that's better.
I'm gonna take Baker Mayfield. He's just he's shown me more
recently. It's a very what have you done
for me lately take, But like, he's been good this season,
right? Right.
I, I, I probably like, picked up on the Mahomes thing or, or got
distracted by that. It's not a Mahomes take.
It's it's, it's a Baker Mayfield take that.
He's playing really, really good ball.
Yeah, Baker Mayfield is a top. Controversial.
Yeah. He's a top ten quarterback in
the NFL for real life. And where do you think he should
be drafted next year? In probably like in the window
like in that 1011 range. Yeah, yeah.
That's fair. That's fair.
Really like a lot of the pocket passers that go earlier are just
like overpriced cause of hype and we it's happened year over
year, man, it's it it's like. Like Burrow's gonna be a fifth
round pick next. Year Burrow will be a fifth
round pick. Let's see who else Who else had
a really fun year this year that will be overpriced like that?
Oh gosh, I'm trying to think. I'll, I'll pull back up the
quarterbacks here and. Jared, Jared Goff might be like
a eighth round pick or something like.
I don't I don't think he's going off offensive.
And Jayden Daniels. Daniels will be fifth round
pick. No problem, yeah.
And then and I think that's it. I think it might be a lot of
cheap quarterback next year. Yeah.
I mean, as, as it should be like really the, the quarterback
should kind of be like the, the way that like the market should
be efficient is you get all these like quarterbacks kind of
living in that 10th, 11th round. And then it's like, and after
them is all these really fringe like rookies or contingent
upside bets or things like that, where these players are so much
less certain. They're they're probably
nothing, but they could be something.
And it's like the quarterbacks should kind of all live there
right before them. And then after that, it's just
like dart throw land where you're just like your last four
or five rounds are just chucking darts at these guys.
But I I think that having starting quarterbacks that are
like Geno Smith, even though he hasn't had the greatest season,
you know, like he he never should have been going as late
as he was going this year, like a starting pocket passer
quarterback that has. Job security.
Outs to being efficient, has job security just.
Shouldn't go with those cheap guys is job security then.
And their team has to be OK 'cause like the, I think the big
thing with, with some of these like cheaper guys is that if
they don't, if they don't get benched, their team puts them in
really bad spots. So they get injured.
Yeah. So Gardner Minshew would be the
start in QB still for the Colts, not the Colts and the Raiders if
he was healthy. But he plays for a bad team.
Those, those quarterbacks get hurt.
And so I, I, I, I do think that's the other thing to, to
factor in. Yeah, yeah, that's, that's
reasonable. The OK, the other guy we have to
talk about here is George Pickens, who I guess is on the
the previous chart. I wanna say I probably put him
out of order. That's my bad here.
No, no, no worries. And.
Yeah, so, so George Pickens, obviously he's injured.
We haven't seen him play, you know, since he got the hamstring
strain. But we did see the Steelers play
and I'm I was, I was pretty hot on the Steelers for a while for
playoff basketball. They just had really good
probability of making the conference championship.
I'm starting, I'm reserving the in my Steelers bullishness.
I kind of think that they they may have gotten hot at the wrong
time. The Steelers got hot a little
early. Now, granted, it could be that
George Pickens is the straw that serves to drink.
You need George Pickens to really make things go right.
But I'm I'm worried that you get these Steelers games that we've
been seeing where it's like no one on the Steelers scores more
than 10 fantasy points. And so if you know, it's just
not useful, like maybe even in a win, like it's still really not
useful. The second round of playoff
basketball, you do still need some points.
Like a lot of teams are live, even though some have been
eliminated. So I'm I'm cooling a lot on the
Steelers and basically taking the Steelers exposure I already
have and saying like that's good.
Like I'm glad I have it, but I'm not aggressively pursuing the
Steelers like I was previously. Now this is not a contrarian
take. The market is letting them fall
more and so I am still getting Steelers.
I just previously I was a price enforcer on Steelers because
they were too cheap. I'm just saying I'm I'm no
longer price enforcing, but like you give me seventh or eighth
round George Pickens, like I'm going to take it.
And on DraftKings, like you forced me into like a Pat
Fryermuth thing to help me get a tight end spot filled for week
1. Like, you know, I'll I'll take
it, but I'm really not that into Naji.
He's just he's looking worse and worse.
And the the unfortunate thing is like Warren is not going to get
enough work really to where he's super exciting either.
So it just seems like it's just bad juju from the Steelers.
So just want to be very price conscious on them despite their
good playoff odds that have gotten worse over the last week.
Yeah, yeah, makes sense. Makes sense.
Playoff odds down. The price probably hasn't really
reacted to the the worsening playoff odds, either.
They do they do slide more now. So they're they're probably on
their way down. It's just AD PS are so
meaningless in playoff basketball that it makes them
update slower. Like because the standard
deviation's so wide, you'll get some people to take them really
early and some people take them really late.
So you just, you end up with ADP meaning so much less that it's,
it's hard to, this is the game where you should rely on the
market the least to kind of establish a value for a player.
So it's it is pretty tricky. You do really need like some way
to actually assign a value to these players for playoff
basketball. You cannot be using just like a
oh, well, the market says they're about worth this and
I'll like just massage it from there to what I think.
Like if you're doing that with your playoff basketball ranks,
or like you're using a ranking set that is incorporating ADP at
all, it's really bad. Like one of the worst things I
could imagine doing is drafting off ADP for playoff.
Basketball make makes makes sense, and that's probably
mostly because you need to be building that your team stacks
and stuff like that. So you you need to be playing
based on on your your, your, your bracket rather than like,
oh, this guy's a DPI can't reach for him.
Like, I can't let this this guy fall.
Yeah, you, you, you got to, you got to build in your structure.
Yeah, there like there are times where I'm in the fourth round
where the best picks for me all go, you know, 45 ADP and later,
you know, they're they're all going to go like round seven,
round 8 and later. And I'm in the fourth round and
it's like, all right, I'm going to just slam all these guys that
go later now, because these are the best picks for me if I'm
trying to win the tournament. And there there are definitely
people that try to scoop ADP value or like don't understand
that, right? Anyway, all right, we can, we
can go to the last chart here. And OK, Matt, I, I didn't have
any notes on this one. Yeah.
I don't. I I don't, I don't I think.
I've got a guy to mention though if you don't have anyone that
you want to talk about. And I can always talk about Troy
Franklin, but I don't think that's that's what anybody is
interested in. No, the guy that I think is
interesting is Jalen Coker. He just looks good, like he's a
good football player. He might be the best receiver on
the Panthers. So there's a couple warts on the
frog or a family in the ointment, if you will.
They line him up outside pretty exclusively, so it's going to be
like a higher variance type of play are.
Are you sure? I'm showing last week that he
had like 17 snaps in the slot. I think that was only when when
they had. 'Cause you got a legit injury
and so I believe they moved him around a little bit after the
legit injury. I wanna pull up.
OK, bear with me. And then 20 snaps in the slot in
week 10. Yeah, so he he did, he actually
did have a lot of snaps in the slot in week 10.
I'm wondering if these are 'cause he's not running a bunch
of routes from the slot from what I've seen.
So I'm wondering if they're lining him up there to block
more. Yeah.
One, one second, I'll I can pull up the, the table.
So we're talking about Coker the the cokeheads.
That's Carolina. So his all his passing snaps
where he's running a route last week.
So he had 31 route, 31 routes, 36 passing snaps, so 17 in the
slot, 19 out wide. OK, so yeah, he's he's less.
He's maybe he's less targeted in the slot.
Yeah, less exclusively out wide than I thought, but yeah, he he
is he's interesting. He seems seems pretty good.
He had the one really explosive play.
That's where the vast majority of his production came from
here. But I I do think he's good.
You also have the liget injury that might allow for Coker to
get a little bit more. Right, it opens up, it opens up
the the rat rate. Yeah, so really, I mean, you're
just watching to see if this guy can can flash a little more.
I mean, the Panthers should be highly motivated.
Oh, Steph in the chat says he was slot more before Thielen was
back. So he was, he was filling the
Thielen role prior to Thielen coming back.
But now that Thielen's back, I think he's taking more stuff out
wide. But.
Well, even, yeah, even even last week he was there.
Yeah, he still was in the slot some last week, so.
But it makes sense. So he's his slot rate on the
year is actually 71%. So I bet that's more when when
you had the being replacement for Adam Thielen, right, Whereas
more recently it's been kind of like a a mix and match.
Yeah, the, I mean, as far as like what's actual with this
Jalen Coker information? I mean, if, if he's somehow
available on your dynasty waiver wires, like go blow all your fab
on him. You know, if you have any left,
he's the one where if you get I mean, he he probably also
because he just had the big game, isn't even in a situation
where he could be under the radar for like DFS or like B.
So I don't know. He it's it's probably not
terribly actionable. It would just be something where
I'm if you can get a spot where he's low owned and cheap, I'm
willing to to play into it for DFS just cuz I think the
player's good. Let me pull up the the Panthers
schedule here to close. This out.
Yeah, you get, oh man, yeah, you get Cardinals and bucks.
So that's, that's pretty interesting.
I mean box. Week 17, so we got the Bryce
Young to Jalen Coker and Vaughn Sacks on top.
That's what I'm hearing. Yeah, I'm, I'm interested in it.
I mean, really. So now here's here's what I
actually want. I want a Jalen Coker like bad
bad actual fantasy production but good underlying metrics in
week 16 so he can like stay under the radar so I can just
jam him in week 17 for all the money.
There we go. We got we have a question in the
chat that I think we should talk about before we close up.
But thoughts on Malik Washington?
He's he's definitely interesting too.
He did hit a starting lineup for one of my basketball teams this
week. So.
Yeah, not, not one that advanced, but yeah.
Not one that advanced. But he did hit it.
He's he's up to a 70% route rate last week.
And that's what the Jalen Waddle injury and he had 19% targets
per run, so 6 targets 52 yards. And so like that, that's
actually pretty, pretty solid usage.
I I think you do like 100% need Joe and Waddle to be out for him
to be playable. Like the Dolphins, they got
flexed out of prime time. So no, no shadow showdown slate
and slates for them. And he's before the injury.
He's like a 40% red guy. And like, that's kind of like
those are the kind of guys you need to be playing a showdown
rather than in, in, in utter formats of, of football.
So you you need the job model intrigue to play him.
But he's a fun guy. He's a fun player.
He's explosive. He makes guys miss.
He makes big plays. Yeah, he for me, like his
usefulness, is going to rely on the Waddle injury.
If Waddle's inactive, I'm, I'm like at least a little
interested. You probably can't really play
him in DFS just because the Dolphins, you know, so much of
it's going to go to Jonnu and a Chan.
I mean, maybe. Maybe if he's like the Stoneman.
Right, you can I think you can play mid min price if if if
waddles out because 70% nineteen percent target spread run like
if you're getting 6 targets for 60 yards and you catch a
touchdown like for cheap right receiver.
That's pretty. That's pretty good.
Yeah, All right. I think that'll do it for today.
So thank you to everyone for tuning in.
We're we're almost at the very end of of the season here.
I think for our schedule, I don't believe we will be doing a
show next week because that does fall on Christmas Eve.
Think we'll be spending time with our families?
Yeah. And then the following, the week
after that is New Year's Eve, which we'll have to have to talk
about that one that is week 17. I mean, maybe we we'll have to
we'll figure something out maybe instead of I mean, I don't even
know how much actual stuff we're going to have in a week, right?
So we might just do like a recap show at the end of the week or
something instead. Our regular scheduled
programming will be disrupted for the next two weeks, but
we'll, we'll have news in the Discord.
I'm sure we'll probably, you know, Pete will put something
out on Twitter just letting people know what to expect.
But in case we don't see you for a little while, we really
appreciate you listening. This whole season.
We hope that we were helpful for you and that you found some
actual stuff and you found some success in whatever fantasy
formats you were playing. And if you didn't, we hope that
you at least had fun. But thanks again for listening,
and we'll see you when we see you.
Yeah, Thanks for thanks for listening all year, everyone.
See you, everybody. See everybody?