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Week 15 is done the first week 
of the Fantasy play offs and I 

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would be remiss if I did not 
offer my deepest and most 

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sincere congratulations to all 
open drafters to ever grace the 

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fantasy football platforms with 
their presence on their 

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absolutely fantastic round one 
advance rates. 

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Your checks are in the mail for 
your -50% return on investment. 

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This is stat chasing Pat fryer 
Helmo. 

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00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:42,240
This is what this is, Anita 
Hand. 

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00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:46,480
Job fix your sight, Jamar and 
Alpha play chase. 

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You can't handle the heat. 
It looks like we're finally at 

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this point here, right? 
Well, well, well, Draco, how the

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turntables? 
Turn. 

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Yeah, this. 
Oh, was that a dramatic pause 

14
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that I just ruined? 
No, no, no, I, I was, I was 

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00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:17,520
throwing it to you for, for. 
Justice. 

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OK, yeah, well, I think it it's 
not, it's not just the IT what's

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funny is it's not just the, the,
the round one advance rates. 

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It's the round one advance rates
that have been like victory 

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lapped for like months, months 
and months and months. 

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Like people are like October, 
like it's the year of the 

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running back. 
Yeah, The thing, the thing that 

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is going to make me the most 
insufferable to those people 

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here. 
And so if you're one of those 

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people where this is going to 
hurt your Fifi's, just turn the 

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show off right now. 
You know, it's going to be a bad

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one for you. 
Or if you're into pain and 

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suffering, you can stay tuned 
here and just be punching air as

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you listen to me. 
Absolutely take a dump all over 

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you for how stupid you are. 
But the thing that really stuck 

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in my craw with the, you know, 
Week 8, we're coronating the the

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world's best, best ball player 
of all time because they drafted

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77% Derrick Henry and they have 
90% Shuba Hubbard is when you 

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pull back the curtain and take a
look at the portfolios of the 

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quote UN quote best proclaimed 
drafters. 

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You're talking about like the 
wizard guy FF. 

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Wizard. 
Sure, sure, There's a whole host

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of them who were sniffing their 
own farts all through the 

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offseason. 
And the best thing about it is 

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these people are so dumb that it
doesn't matter that I'm going to

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explain how bad they are at the 
game right here. 

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They will be back next year to 
lose just as much, if not more 

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money. 
And and that's the great thing 

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about it is the biggest fish in 
this game. 

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It's not like poker where it's 
like, hey, don't tap the tank. 

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Like we're just here for a good 
time. 

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Like everybody can sit around 
the table and have a little fun.

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Like these people are coming at 
it so aggro and so much of their

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ego and identity is tied up in. 
But I drafted 77% Derrick Henry 

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and I'm the best, I'm the 
smartest man to ever live that 

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they are just going to dig their
heels in on this and come back, 

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you know, with even more fervor 
than they had this year. 

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And, and when you pull the 
curtain back on their portfolios

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and you look at these entirely 
undiversified portfolios that 

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are effectively just, you know, 
they're really just one big, you

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know, single season parlay 
ticket is what they're looking 

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at. 
And then they're surprised when 

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it gets to week 15 and this 
parlay that they've been running

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hotter than the sun with for the
entire year, all of a sudden 

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craps out in one week. 
And guess what? 

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It happens to be that individual
weeks do matter at the end of 

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the year. 
Those that was in the rules. 

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If you had bothered to read like
you could have known that this 

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was something where it's quite 
important to not have all of 

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your eggs in one basket because 
if something goes wrong and all 

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your eggs are in one basket, 
you're dead. 

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See you next season. 
And and you know the the whole 

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thing of like, Oh well, they 
drafted all the best, most 

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undervalued players. 
Yeah, for this specific run out,

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00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:22,079
like congratulations. 
I mean, if we're if we're 

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rolling A6 sided die and you 
guess before I roll it that it's

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going to be a 5. 
Are you the smartest man that 

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00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:33,400
ever lived? 
Like no, you, you just you ran 

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good. 
You picked the right number one 

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out of six times. 
And I think that so much of 

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fantasy football people view is 
like a deterministic thing 

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rather than we're dealing with a
range of outcomes. 

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And so it's hard for people who 
are not very, you know, numerate

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to understand that, hey, picking
the right players, like, sure, 

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if you're going to be perfectly 
accurate, over accurate at that,

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over a huge sample is gonna be 
the best strategy you could 

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have. 
But the truth of the matter is 

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you're not and no one is. 
And that is why, you know, I, I 

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really don't subscribe to this 
theory of like jam 80% of 10 

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players and have those in your 
portfolio. 

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And then you have these crazy 
advance rates when it works out 

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for you. 
I mean, you can go back and look

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at the historical data and see 
what happens to the vast 

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majority of these people who do 
jam 80% of a bunch of guys. 

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Like the carcasses are numerous,
you know, they're, they're 

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strewn amongst the rubble of 
years past. 

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Like you'll get a couple guys 
who go super heavy on these hard

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stands and they're the ones that
it works out for this year and 

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they think they're geniuses. 
But so many other people who 

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drafted so, so similarly to them
and just were unlucky in the way

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that this specific outcome 
happened, as opposed to the 

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people that got lucky. 
So many of them are just 

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absolutely stone dead. 
You know, no, never a snowball's

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00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:04,360
chance in hell of of actually 
having a chance to win any of 

99
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these tournaments. 
So that's, that's the long 

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monologue. 
We can we can go ahead and get 

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into some charts but had to get 
it off my chest. 

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Right. 
I mean, so I am, I like you. 

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I'm feeling pretty good about 
our, our week 14, our work week 

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15 kind of 0 RB run out it, it, 
it's, it's feeling pretty nice. 

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I guess the, the only thing that
is still kind of in the back of 

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my mind is so I, I know a, a lot
of the, a lot of the Saquon 

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teams are kind of wiped out now 
because he, he kind of dragged a

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lot of teams to playoffs and, 
and, and you needed those kind 

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of 30 and 40 point games from. 
And if you look at his week 15, 

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despite, I, I guess some, some, 
some of this is interesting 

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because despite like them having
they run the Eagles run 81 

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plays. 
He was on the field for 59% of 

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those plays. 
He only had 13 expected points 

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and then he didn't have the big 
runs. 

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But I I guess what I come back 
to a little bit is what if next 

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week he does break off those 
big, big on runs anywhere Like, 

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oh shit. 
Yeah, I mean, absolutely. 

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If you got a Saquon team through
or you got a Derrick Henry team 

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through, those are teams you're 
really happy to have right now. 

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They're still going to be 
relatively owned. 

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Like they're not all of a sudden
low owned pieces. 

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They're just normal ownership. 
You know, they're not, they 

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didn't magically become low 
owned off of one week. 

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I've I've seen a couple teams 
advance with Saquon on them, 

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with Henry on them. 
I even saw a Saquon and Henry 

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team advance. 
So, yeah, they're they're out 

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there and and those people are 
set up for a pretty good spot 

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now where these guys that were 
going to be the massive chalk to

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where they didn't really help 
you all that much unless they 

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00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:08,760
just truly became mandatory in 
the the finals, you know, if 

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they were necessary to win. 
But now you're in a situation 

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where if they have good games, 
they can actually be enough to 

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differentiate you because the 
field is not going to be so, so 

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full of them. 
So I'm not saying that, you 

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know, oh, if you have a safe one
or Henry team left, it's over. 

136
00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:27,840
Like, no, that's a good thing, 
right? 

137
00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:32,679
Yeah. 
Right, I, I, I know when with 

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FFPC, it being tree of 12, I'm 
feeling a lot less so 

139
00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:41,080
uncomfortable about that kind of
possibility where if it if like 

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00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:44,960
one of them has a big spike 
week, at least there's some like

141
00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:49,240
advanced spots a lot for me. 
Right, Yeah. 

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00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:52,040
And it obviously depends on the 
tournament format that you're 

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in. 
Some of them will have 

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00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:54,920
friendlier advanced structure 
for this week. 

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Some of them are pretty tough. 
I mean really so much of it at 

146
00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:01,880
this point does come down to pod
luck. 

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00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:05,760
I I've had teams where they 
would have advanced in, I'm 

148
00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:07,600
looking through and it's like, 
oh, this team would have 

149
00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:11,080
advanced in literally every 
other pod that I had in the same

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00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:15,760
tournament except for this one. 
Like I had ADK 555 get knocked 

151
00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:19,200
out with about 190 points and 
I'm looking through all my other

152
00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:21,080
pods. 
It's like, Yep, that would have 

153
00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:24,120
advanced almost everywhere. 
And that was one of my best 

154
00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:25,920
teams. 
Like as far as the players that 

155
00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:28,160
were left. 
And the most brutal part is it 

156
00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:32,880
was a Bengals onslaught and all 
of the Bengals did good, but not

157
00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:35,800
good enough like Jamar Chase. 
And this is on DraftKings. 

158
00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:37,560
So Jamar Chase 4 yards off the 
bonus. 

159
00:09:37,560 --> 00:09:41,320
So he gets one more 4 yard 
reception, that's 3.4 more 

160
00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:43,960
points. 
T Higgins 12 yards off the 

161
00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:47,880
bonus, one more reception, 4.2 
more points, right? 

162
00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:51,200
Jamar Chase gets that touchdown 
like that's that's enough to 

163
00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:53,720
advance. 
And so it, it was a little 

164
00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:58,440
brutal in that respect, but 
that's the way that is how the 

165
00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:01,840
pod format works. 
And again, that is part of why 

166
00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:05,600
being taking a diversified 
approach to your portfolio is 

167
00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:09,040
important, because you really 
don't want the same combos over 

168
00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:11,560
and over and over again in these
playoff weeks. 

169
00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:15,560
Because the only time that's a 
good thing for you is when those

170
00:10:15,560 --> 00:10:18,520
were the nuts. 
Like, sure, if you had CD Lamb, 

171
00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:23,360
Devante Adams, Brian Thomas, 
Chase Brown, you know, and you 

172
00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:27,720
know you couldn't have Jamir 
Gibbs at that, but Mike Evans, 

173
00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:29,680
you had that five player combo, 
right? 

174
00:10:29,680 --> 00:10:33,360
Like of course you're happy if 
that's what you slammed across 

175
00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:36,280
your whole portfolio. 
You've got like that combo on 

176
00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:38,680
20% of your teams. 
It could be absolutely absurd 

177
00:10:38,680 --> 00:10:41,960
for having five players across 
20% of your teams. 

178
00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:46,640
But like when you get to the 
next round, those players are 

179
00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:49,480
all more owned and that specific
combo of players is going to be 

180
00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:52,720
pretty owned. 
It's just when you when you see 

181
00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:56,680
kind of how it plays out, you're
asking a lot for the same guys 

182
00:10:56,680 --> 00:10:59,400
to do it over and over again 
each week. 

183
00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,960
And then really what that 
manifests as in the finals is if

184
00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:07,000
it is the same guys that do it 
over over again each week, you 

185
00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:10,280
end up being really vulnerable 
to leverage. 

186
00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:13,240
So if those guys aren't the ones
that you need in the finals, 

187
00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:16,880
like you're, you're very easily 
going to be passed by people who

188
00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:19,640
have these lower owned one off 
players. 

189
00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:24,280
So just a just a good reminder 
about how the pod structure 

190
00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:28,640
works and pod variance is brutal
and how you you can actually 

191
00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:30,480
make this a strategic part of 
your game. 

192
00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:33,080
You can play for the format that
you are in. 

193
00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:37,240
I know this is shocking news to 
some people, but you you 

194
00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:38,680
actually can't do that. 
You're allowed. 

195
00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:43,920
Yeah, the other thing and I I, 
I've been saying this for years,

196
00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:47,520
years and years and years. 
I, I honestly think too many 

197
00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:50,800
people play and and big underdog
is going to assassinate me. 

198
00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:58,040
I think too many people play BBM
like the vast majority, like I, 

199
00:11:58,120 --> 00:12:02,360
I, I know like there, there are 
some people who, for example, 

200
00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:07,360
who are correct to Max the, the 
DK Millie maker, the the, the 

201
00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:10,320
what you call it the actual DFS 
Millie maker every week. 

202
00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:13,240
They have the bankroll, they 
have the ability. 

203
00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:16,360
It's a great way. 
It's they're they're building EV

204
00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:21,120
every week and they can take the
swings, But that's not most 

205
00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:24,040
people. 
And I think there are too many, 

206
00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:30,760
most people type people that are
playing that when they should be

207
00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:36,200
put, they should be playing a 
like I, I think, I honestly 

208
00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:39,960
think BBM should be the last 
tournament that you Max like I 

209
00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:42,280
think you should be maxing a lot
more tournaments before you do 

210
00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:44,840
that. 
Yeah, that's that's really well 

211
00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:46,960
said. 
And one of the things that 

212
00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:51,160
people do not really understand 
when you're talking about these 

213
00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:54,880
really top heavy contests and 
these large field lottery 

214
00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:58,760
formats is what is your 
expectation going in? 

215
00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:02,000
What is the thing that happens 
most frequently for you? 

216
00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:04,880
I, I'm, I'm gonna reference a 
tweet that someone shared with 

217
00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:09,720
me, but this it just like 
screams to me how innumerate the

218
00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:13,080
vast majority of people are 
playing fantasy football, which 

219
00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:16,640
is a little, I mean, it's if 
you're someone that's playing 

220
00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:19,120
fantasy football with an 
expectation of profit or you're 

221
00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:20,960
playing because you think you 
have an edge and you, you're 

222
00:13:21,360 --> 00:13:24,440
pretty confident and you have 
the ability to, to measure that,

223
00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:27,560
then this is encouraging for you
because there are people that 

224
00:13:27,560 --> 00:13:33,240
are not, not equipped to be 
playing these games well. 

225
00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:37,560
But if you're talking about it 
from like a standpoint of, gosh,

226
00:13:37,560 --> 00:13:39,280
these people are doing some 
stuff that's probably like 

227
00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:43,040
really financially bad for them 
and they don't understand it. 

228
00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:48,840
So this tweet is 1 poll I would 
like to see turn to all that did

229
00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:51,760
Max BBM 5. 
Was it worth it? 

230
00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:54,920
Of course those still advancing 
may have way different outlook 

231
00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:57,920
as we have semi and finals left 
yes or no. 

232
00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:03,840
And the the even asking this 
question is so baffling to me 

233
00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:09,400
because what do you like If you 
said is it worth it no to maxing

234
00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:11,640
best while mania. 
To me, that means you had a 

235
00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:15,360
fundamental misunderstanding of 
what you were signing up for, 

236
00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:19,200
which if you're putting almost 
$4000 on the line and you don't 

237
00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:22,480
really get that the vast 
majority of the time, you're 

238
00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:27,560
going to lose over 50% of what 
you put in. 

239
00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:32,680
That's that's pretty concerning.
Like there's a lot of people 

240
00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:35,400
that are just lighting money on 
fire and don't understand it, 

241
00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:36,840
right? 
Like they're over the whole 

242
00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:39,840
summer, they're drafting and 
they're thinking they're just 

243
00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:44,400
dreaming about the really good 
outcomes with fundamental 

244
00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:48,200
misunderstanding of what happens
the vast, vast majority of the 

245
00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:50,680
time. 
Well, I mean, BBM is probably is

246
00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:55,040
probably the most fun contest to
draft in because that's what 

247
00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:57,480
everybody's doing. 
Like you, you build that sense 

248
00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:00,560
of community that you're 
drafting the same kind of 

249
00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:03,600
tournament as the people, as 
your friend, as your online 

250
00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:08,280
friends. 
And I'm I'm I'm going to tie it 

251
00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:13,600
into this is I'm going to take 
it off the screen, but that 

252
00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:20,040
that's our good friend and 
saying BBM and DK Millie has the

253
00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:23,120
most dead money. 
And that's true. 

254
00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:28,720
And it's kind of like, Jason, I 
think you're like the classic 

255
00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:33,760
person who should actually be 
maxing and BBM and lots of 

256
00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:39,520
people are. 
But but the variance and and and

257
00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:43,040
and and and the bankroll that 
you need and the understanding 

258
00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:46,760
of the variance that you need to
do that and and and for it to be

259
00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:50,520
worthwhile is something that is 
is not something most people 

260
00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:52,360
have. 
Yeah. 

261
00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:56,640
I mean, of course J Fresh should
be mapping everything, but not, 

262
00:15:56,720 --> 00:15:59,200
there's not very many J Fresh's 
out there. 

263
00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:03,680
You know, not very many people 
are, are, are going to be as 

264
00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:07,600
good or able to take advantage 
of these games and have a 

265
00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,800
positive expectation in them. 
And it's not necessary an anti 

266
00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:15,280
anti underdog take. 
Like I know, I think Hope 

267
00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:18,920
tweeted out that that she's 
working on like having 100 

268
00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:22,920
tournaments that are are not BBM
and have different advanced 

269
00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:28,640
restructures and so like have 
different them and probably meet

270
00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:30,240
most people's goals a little 
better. 

271
00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:37,040
Yeah, I I just think that you 
need to, if you're gonna play 

272
00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:41,960
best ball for an amount of money
that's meaningful to you, or if 

273
00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:46,960
you lost that money, you lost 
all of it, you would be at the 

274
00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:51,520
very least like a little sad. 
You need to make sure that you 

275
00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:53,480
can answer the following 
questions. 

276
00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:58,840
What is the most likely outcome 
for you in a given year, right? 

277
00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:01,080
What is what? 
What's going to happen most 

278
00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:04,000
years that you play this right? 
You lose about half. 

279
00:17:04,079 --> 00:17:07,079
That's my expectation too, if 
you're going to lose about half.

280
00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:09,880
And are you comfortable with 
that outcome, right? 

281
00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:14,880
And can you afford to continue 
to do that year over year? 

282
00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:19,119
The the nice thing, though, like
saving grace for Bestball is 

283
00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:22,960
that there's not very many 
slates, right? 

284
00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:27,400
Like over the course of your 
lifetime, you know, even if you 

285
00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,680
play best ball, you discover 
best ball in your, you know, 20s

286
00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:34,720
or 30s and you play every year 
until your 70s, you know, it 

287
00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:36,840
lasts forever. 
Best ball never dies. 

288
00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:40,400
Like you're gonna play 40 slates
like that's nothing. 

289
00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:44,800
You know, like I, I've already 
played like well over 60 slates 

290
00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:48,800
of DFS, you know, for the NFL 
season this year, like, and 

291
00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:51,600
that's just for showdown. 
Like when you include classic, 

292
00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:56,280
like you're over 100 slates. 
So it's like you end up with 

293
00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:00,280
it's, it's hard to go broke 
playing basketball unless you're

294
00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:02,800
just playing an absurd amount in
a single year. 

295
00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:06,320
So like the bankroll, the bad 
bankroll management that a lot 

296
00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:12,320
of people practice does not 
catch up to them in, in best 

297
00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:15,040
ball just because you don't have
that many slates for the bad 

298
00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:17,520
decisions to really, you know, 
come to roost. 

299
00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:22,080
But I, I've seen people who like
are people that I recognize from

300
00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:25,960
being in these communities for 
multiple years, say stuff like, 

301
00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:28,520
oh, I've played best ball for 
four years. 

302
00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:33,000
And this is in, in response to a
tweet where someone said, Oh, if

303
00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:35,960
you don't have a bankroll of, 
you know, greater than $10,000, 

304
00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:37,880
you shouldn't be playing best 
ball mania at all. 

305
00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,120
And I saw someone say, oh, well,
I've, I've been playing 

306
00:18:41,120 --> 00:18:44,080
basketball for four years and my
bankroll is less than half of 

307
00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:46,160
that. 
And I'm, I'm profitable over 

308
00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:49,000
those four years. 
And my answer to that is like, 

309
00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:50,680
sick brag that you've been sun 
running. 

310
00:18:51,120 --> 00:18:54,560
Cause like a four year sample of
slates is really small. 

311
00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:58,160
And over four years, even if 
you're a very good player with a

312
00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:01,600
huge edge, your expectation is 
still going to be that you're 

313
00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:04,080
negative like that. 
You're losing money. 

314
00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:09,120
It almost all comes down to did 
you bank a tournament and you 

315
00:19:09,120 --> 00:19:10,640
know. 
Or a top five finisher or 

316
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:12,520
something like. 
That, yeah, yeah, depending on 

317
00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:13,440
the structure. 
Right. 

318
00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:18,920
But ten $10,000 as a as a 
bankroll proxy for if you should

319
00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:21,760
Max BBM is pretty good. 
I think that's a pretty good 

320
00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:25,920
real time. 
Yeah, I mean in in DFS, because 

321
00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,160
you can turn over the money so 
much faster. 

322
00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:33,080
A nice heuristic that I've heard
other people reference is look 

323
00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:37,600
at what first place is and if 
you can't stomach going on that 

324
00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:39,520
large of a downswing. 
So if you're playing the Millie 

325
00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:43,480
Maker and you can't stomach 
losing $1,000,000 before you 

326
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:47,000
win, your bankroll's probably 
not big enough to play this 

327
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:48,560
right? 
If you're playing, you know, all

328
00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:52,760
the Showdown Lotto slates and 
you can't stomach losing 300K or

329
00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:56,480
500K, whatever the 1st place 
prize is, that's probably out of

330
00:19:56,480 --> 00:20:00,480
your bankroll. 
And so it's the thing where like

331
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:02,560
even for people listening to 
this even. 

332
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:06,400
Shark I I think like just to be 
clear, like we're not saying 

333
00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:10,640
that people who have bankrolls 
less than 100 grand shouldn't be

334
00:20:11,360 --> 00:20:14,600
playing basketball. 
No, no, I mean again. 

335
00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:17,160
That was my that's like, is this
what Saka's saying? 

336
00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:20,000
So I'm I'm asking a dumb 
question that somebody else may.

337
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:21,120
Right. 
No, no. 

338
00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:23,320
And, and the thing, the thing 
really that I'm saying with 

339
00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:26,160
regards to basketball is the 
bankroll, the bad bankroll 

340
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:29,560
management that most people 
practice doesn't hurt you as bad

341
00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:32,640
in basketball because you don't 
get to turn the money over as 

342
00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:34,160
fast. 
I mean, you're going to lose a 

343
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:36,360
bunch of that money, right? 
Your risk of ruin is still 

344
00:20:36,360 --> 00:20:39,920
really high. 
But it's not like DFS where if 

345
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:43,200
you overextend yourself in DFS, 
like you can evaporate it real 

346
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,440
quick because the slates are 
coming, you know, multiple 

347
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:49,000
slates a week, you know, and if 
you're playing multiple sports, 

348
00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:52,640
like you could easily have 1020 
slates, you know, in the course 

349
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:55,360
of a week. 
And then it's you just nuke your

350
00:20:55,360 --> 00:20:57,720
bankroll if you're overextending
yourself. 

351
00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:02,720
So for, for best of all, I mean,
again, I would say and there's a

352
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:04,480
reason. 
Why you got a year to save up 

353
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:05,920
and all that kind of stuff. 
It's it's part. 

354
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:08,320
It's mostly a hobby for most 
people. 

355
00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:12,880
Yeah, And, and if you're playing
as a hobby and you're like, I, I

356
00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:14,760
do think that it's really 
important to be honest with 

357
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:17,640
yourself and say, like, do I 
really have an expectation of 

358
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:19,760
profit in this or am I playing 
as a hobby? 

359
00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:24,120
And like, maybe if I'm maybe, 
maybe I do have an expectation 

360
00:21:24,120 --> 00:21:26,560
of profit, maybe I'm good enough
that I have an expectation of 

361
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:28,880
profit, right. 
And, and that's probably like a 

362
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,000
more honest way to approach it 
for most people. 

363
00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:35,480
And if that's the case, then, 
you know, set aside the amount 

364
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:38,120
that you're willing to spend as 
entertainment for the year. 

365
00:21:38,360 --> 00:21:40,960
And that's probably a healthier 
way to look at it for most 

366
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:45,000
people rather than like, oh, I'm
going to plow $50,000 into best 

367
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:48,280
ball and then I'm expecting to 
get at least a 10% ROI on my 

368
00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:51,960
money and that'll be great. 
It's like, I mean, really that's

369
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:53,840
just not a not a realistic 
thing. 

370
00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:56,440
And like it's a pretty high 
variance exercise, a pretty high

371
00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:59,000
variance, a way to make 10% on 
your money. 

372
00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:03,760
I mean, there's a reason why I 
played 2300 teams this year, 

373
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:07,360
because the more bullets that 
you have, the more you can 

374
00:22:07,360 --> 00:22:09,200
reduce your variance on a single
slate. 

375
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:12,920
But again, it is one slate and 
all of the outcomes of all of 

376
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:16,240
those 2300 teams that I drafted 
are correlated outcomes. 

377
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:20,040
So like we saw this this year 
when things went poorly this 

378
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:22,800
year, like it went poorly for 
the vast majority of your 

379
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:26,040
portfolio. 
And that's, that's just kind of 

380
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,080
the, the truth about best of 
all, the fact that it's 1 slate.

381
00:22:29,120 --> 00:22:34,360
I, I would love if we see more 
stuff kind of like, I mean, my, 

382
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:38,400
my dream for how best ball could
evolve over time to make it be 

383
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:43,480
something that is number one 
better for grinder and #2 better

384
00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:47,560
for the casual player is to 
shrink the slate size down. 

385
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:49,440
Sure. 
Do your, do your normal like, 

386
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:51,960
you know, full season basketball
stuff. 

387
00:22:52,120 --> 00:22:53,600
Obviously you don't have to get 
rid of that. 

388
00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:56,560
But DraftKings does these 
resurrection tournaments every 

389
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:59,560
single week right now. 
That's OK, but you're still 

390
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:01,840
tying your money up for the 
whole season. 

391
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:03,920
And, and it just the time 
horizon that you're tying it up 

392
00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:06,160
for just shrinks by one week 
every year, right. 

393
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:11,480
And so the, the thing that I'd 
like to see is give us these 

394
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:17,080
little mini slates like, you 
know, weeks one through 4, best 

395
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:19,920
of all tournament, weeks 5 
through 8, best of all 

396
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,160
tournament. 
Or just do these like rolling 

397
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:25,120
four week tournaments or 
something, something like that, 

398
00:23:25,120 --> 00:23:28,400
or rolling six week even, but 
shrink the time horizon of how 

399
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:32,080
long you're tying money up so 
that it's you, you can actually 

400
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:33,840
have multiple slates in a 
season. 

401
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:40,040
You can have, you know, players 
have the opportunity to to draft

402
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,720
more and then also this is 
better for the sites because the

403
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:44,800
sites don't want your money tied
up with them either. 

404
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:48,280
They want you to turn it around 
and pay more rate to them or do 

405
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:51,800
more pickups or what have you. 
So I'd love to see if underdog 

406
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:54,240
or DraftKings would come out 
with these like kind of 

407
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:57,240
abbreviated slates or 
abbreviated basketball seasons. 

408
00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:02,080
I mean, my, my dream dream is 
you just make it like a, a fake 

409
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:05,600
playoff best ball style format 
where you have these little mini

410
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:07,480
5 man rosters and you got to 
feel that. 

411
00:24:08,120 --> 00:24:11,600
And, and you get something in 
there where if a team loses, an 

412
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,920
NFL team loses, those players 
all just score zeros for the 

413
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,640
rest of the tournament. 
And you kind of have a little 

414
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:19,360
little playoff baseball aspect 
in there. 

415
00:24:19,360 --> 00:24:21,840
But that's probably just my sick
obsession with playoff baseball 

416
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:28,960
coming in. 
Yeah, the only, the only thing 

417
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:31,280
about it turning over more 
often. 

418
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,800
I, I, I do think that, that 
that's when you could get people

419
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,760
in trouble in bankroll, because 
then you say like a lot of issue

420
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:40,400
with DFS is the more if you're 
playing the same amount and it's

421
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:42,240
turning over, that's when you 
get in trouble. 

422
00:24:43,120 --> 00:24:45,640
If you're if you're not managing
your bankroll properly, I mean 

423
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,920
the what it all. 
What, what, what do we know 

424
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,560
about what do we say about a lot
of these? 

425
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:55,280
I I did like I just said just to
change topics slightly. 

426
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:57,880
I did like this comment. 
I was like, I like the draft BBM

427
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:02,840
just so I can complain. 
You know, I do think people like

428
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:06,200
to complain. 
I I had a bad beat last night 

429
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:10,640
and probably not even a bad beat
where I needed twenty points 

430
00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:16,400
from either Bowers or Bijan in 
in PPR tight end premium and and

431
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,040
then they were both projected 
for that. 

432
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:22,120
I needed one of them to hit 
their hit their ECR projection 

433
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:28,200
and neither did. 
And so yeah, I, I, yeah, I, I, I

434
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:31,120
like to complain too. 
And I do think game. 

435
00:25:31,120 --> 00:25:33,240
So we're 30 minutes in. 
I think do think we should. 

436
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,080
Probably we should. 
Hit the charts I think. 

437
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:38,880
Hit the charts, hit the stats 
and start chasing. 

438
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:42,640
So this is. 
On this show. 

439
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:49,760
No, no, we just gloat about our 
around to advance rates on this 

440
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:56,400
show. 
So, yeah, so this is our 

441
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,040
quarterback shot. 
I think anybody kind of 

442
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:01,680
listening in at this point kind 
of gets the idea. 

443
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,880
But we're kind of looking at 
efficiency and volume and 

444
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:09,680
efficiency from who's passing. 
Well, who's who's volume from 

445
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:13,040
who's getting high expected 
points from passing and who's 

446
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:15,960
who's rushing. 
And I know, I remember, I do 

447
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:20,120
know you had you had some notes,
the first one about Aaron 

448
00:26:20,120 --> 00:26:26,360
Rodgers. 
Yeah, I mean, he these past two 

449
00:26:26,360 --> 00:26:28,840
weeks he's been a Q B1 in 
fantasy. 

450
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:33,200
He he had rush, he had like 
legitimate rushing production 

451
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:35,400
this last week, which is just 
wild. 

452
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,640
But he he kind of looks like 
he's coming on down the stretch,

453
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:43,920
which feels very strange to me 
because it was just a handful of

454
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:47,960
weeks ago where the vibes in The
Jets organization just seemed 

455
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:50,080
like they could not be any 
worse. 

456
00:26:51,360 --> 00:26:56,200
And so I'm not sure there's 
gotta be. 

457
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:59,880
Well, I mean, he had a good game
against the Dolphins. 

458
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:07,360
He had a really good game 
against the Jags and and who, 

459
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:11,960
and I know you have a note here 
that he's actually his his home 

460
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,720
stretch week 16 and 17 opponents
are pretty weak too. 

461
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:17,760
Yeah, he gets the Rams and the 
Bills. 

462
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:21,560
And I mean, the Bills have just 
been like they've been scoring 

463
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:25,040
at will, but also letting teams 
score on them at will. 

464
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:28,640
So it seems like it could set up
pretty well. 

465
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:32,160
And the Rams are another pretty 
fantasy friendly match up for 

466
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:35,120
quarterbacks. 
So I, I mean, this looks like it

467
00:27:35,120 --> 00:27:37,760
could be a pretty fun spot for 
Rogers down the stretch. 

468
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:39,560
The offense is really 
concentrated. 

469
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:43,400
It's pretty much all Devante 
Adams, Garrett Wilson, and then 

470
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:49,080
Breece Hall if he's healthy. 
So it seems like kind of a fun 

471
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:50,000
spot. 
I mean like. 

472
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:51,760
Yeah, no. 
Makes sense? 

473
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:57,280
On your on your advancing teams.
Right, makes sense. 

474
00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:01,240
So he had he he yeah, he was 
efficient against the he's been 

475
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:04,920
efficient in the last two weeks.
So strong signs of life there 

476
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:10,400
and then not let me look at the 
let me look at the volume 2. 

477
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:21,520
So just the last, so expected 
points from passing 15.6 against

478
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:25,960
Dolphins, 16 against the the 
Jags. 

479
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:28,600
So like solid volume, solid 
volume. 

480
00:28:29,360 --> 00:28:35,120
I I think he's definitely had 
higher weeks, but 1516, that's 

481
00:28:35,120 --> 00:28:38,560
probably that's, that's that's 
probably pretty good given how 

482
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:44,800
slow pace they play. 
Yeah, you want to you want to 

483
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:48,040
talk about slow pace, There's 
another guy I've got a note on 

484
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:50,880
here. 
I was really optimistic about 

485
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:54,720
this team coming out of the bye 
and they had shown some signs of

486
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:56,600
life. 
You know, they're they're 

487
00:28:56,600 --> 00:29:00,160
trending towards maybe a little 
bit more pass friendly offense, 

488
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,560
throwing a lot more on 1st down 
than they had previously. 

489
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:09,280
But CJ Stroud and the Texans 
just I mean, it was really not a

490
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:12,680
super functional performance by 
them. 

491
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:17,080
It just it doesn't look great. 
You've got mixing banged up too 

492
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:20,320
and I they were throwing. 
Here's here's what's weird, 

493
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:24,320
here's what's weird. 
Since week 11, their price rate 

494
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:28,800
over expected is it's like close
to 10. 

495
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:32,760
I think it's like 99 Percent 
over expected. 

496
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:39,840
And so like, what's weird is 
they are so 10% over expected 

497
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:46,400
over the last 55 actual weeks, 
4, sorry, four games that 

498
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:51,640
they've played, which I think 
that seems pretty interesting to

499
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:58,880
me given how the, the, the, the 
year started, but just the 

500
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:00,760
efficiency just has not been 
there. 

501
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:06,520
Yeah, I mean, from watching this
game, it it was just like the 

502
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:10,960
offensive line really seems like
it is just a a big, big problem 

503
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:15,080
for them. 
I mean Nico catches 2 touchdowns

504
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:16,960
and still can't break 20 fantasy
points. 

505
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:20,520
Like it it was just a rough game
all around. 

506
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,680
I mean, Tank Del finally looked,
he looked a little better. 

507
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:25,080
They didn't do anything for 
fantasy. 

508
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:27,360
You think he had like 26 yards 
or something? 

509
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:32,120
So it's Dalton Schultz gets hurt
too and leaves the game. 

510
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:34,840
I didn't see how serious that 
injury was. 

511
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:38,880
I just, you know, looked like a 
chest injury might might be ribs

512
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,520
or something like that. 
I'm not 100% positive. 

513
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:43,000
I haven't seen anything further 
on that. 

514
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:47,000
But man, I'm I'm pretty 
concerned about the Texans. 

515
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:52,600
I mean, I guess the the like 
only hope that I have for them 

516
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:55,040
is that in week 17 they do play 
the Ravens. 

517
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:58,960
And so maybe this they they 
stick with this really high pass

518
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:01,600
rate thing and Joe Mixon still 
banged up. 

519
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:06,000
And so they they don't lean into
the run and the Ravens are able 

520
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:08,880
to just push them enough that 
the Texans throw a ton and 

521
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:10,560
they're able to be a. 
They're playing the Ravens this 

522
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:12,240
week. 
In a week 17. 

523
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:16,600
Week 17 OK, that's pretty 
interesting just because like 

524
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:20,120
if, if they're can, if they 
continue this kind of pass happy

525
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:24,800
streak and then the Ravens 
defense just makes their passing

526
00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:31,240
attack look good. 
I I, I I'm pretty troubled by by

527
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:33,240
like the the the lack of 
performance. 

528
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:38,160
I it it it it's just troubling 
because like even last week he 

529
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:45,400
had like 3.25 average time to 
throw and but his A dot was just

530
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:50,760
8. 
I I I certainly like, I 

531
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:54,160
certainly want to lean on like 
the illustrious college career, 

532
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:58,400
the strong rookie season like 
that that that's where you want 

533
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:01,200
to put most of the weight rather
than like the most recent year. 

534
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:12,000
And but it, it is troubling. 
I, I, I do, I, I do wonder if if

535
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:16,800
we're kind of stuck with this 
kind of thing until that until, 

536
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:20,440
AII guess, may they get a new 
coaching staff. 

537
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:26,400
Yeah, the, I mean, the thing 
that I was also concerning about

538
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:30,400
the Texans is you even when 
they're playing, when things are

539
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:33,680
going well, when they're passing
is is working and they're 

540
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:37,280
sustaining drives, right. 
But they shut it down if they 

541
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:39,200
get a lead like when they. 
Right, right. 

542
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,200
You need, you need an offense 
that's actually going to push 

543
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,400
them. 
You need something like the the 

544
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:50,680
Ravens or the Bills where and 
they're they're, they're the the

545
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:53,880
opposing team's offense is going
to score points, but the 

546
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,360
opposing team defense is going 
to be bad. 

547
00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:00,760
Yeah, so I, I guess there is 
some, some sliver of hope there 

548
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:05,360
for for them in playoff 
basketball where they're likely,

549
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,400
you know, they're they're the 
underdogs in pretty much every 

550
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:14,720
matchup they would have, you 
know, they'll they're round one 

551
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,520
opponent. 
They might not be the dog, but 

552
00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:21,240
if they do survive to Round 2, 
they're going to be the dog. 

553
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:26,520
And I would, I would think maybe
you get circumstances where 

554
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:29,880
they're willing to pass a little
bit more they've they've started

555
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:32,000
to become. 
Over just yeah, just able to 

556
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:35,160
pass well, 'cause like, like I 
said, the the last like four 

557
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:38,280
games they actually have been 
passing in a a good clip. 

558
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:40,640
It's just they haven't been 
getting it done. 

559
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:45,160
Yeah, yeah. 
So I, I'm, I'm pretty worried 

560
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:49,960
about them moving on to the last
thing I wanted to discuss on the

561
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:52,840
quarterback chart. 
This is a really interesting 

562
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:56,920
dynamic for playoff basketball, 
but it's kind of hard because 

563
00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:02,320
the AFC teams that you can 
draft, there's really like. 

564
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:07,000
So when you look at the Ravens, 
they're still pretty overpriced.

565
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:12,480
Now the Ravens conference 
championship odds improved this 

566
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:16,520
week. 
So their price, their price 

567
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:19,880
hasn't moved, but by virtue of 
their conference championship 

568
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:24,159
odds improving just simply 
because you know, the the Chiefs

569
00:34:24,159 --> 00:34:29,360
are getting weaker, you know, 
you got the Holmes injury, the 

570
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:33,719
Bills, they're they're still 
pretty, you know, pretty much 

571
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:36,360
unchanged for their probability 
of making it to the conference 

572
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:40,239
championship. 
So the Ravens just basically 

573
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:42,880
consolidated some conference 
championship probability from 

574
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:45,480
the Steelers is what happened 
'cause they got a lot weaker. 

575
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:50,560
So the Ravens price is now 
closer to fair, but they're 

576
00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:53,320
still a little overpriced. 
But really for the Ravens, it's 

577
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:55,679
like you've got three, maybe 4 
pieces. 

578
00:34:55,679 --> 00:34:59,520
Then really it's just you got 2 
premium pieces in Henry and 

579
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:02,200
Lamar. 
Then the other AFC teams, like 

580
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:07,320
there's no premium piece for the
Bills or the Chiefs, who are the

581
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:09,360
two favorites to go to the 
conference championship. 

582
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:12,680
Like the Chiefs have no premium 
pieces on them, you know, full 

583
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:15,520
stop for fantasy, they just 
don't produce very many fantasy 

584
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:17,760
points. 
Like the best piece on the 

585
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:21,360
Chiefs is probably like Travis 
Kelce, or you could argue 

586
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:24,840
Pacheco, but he's, he's kind of 
in like a full split with Kareem

587
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:27,720
Hunt and not looking that much 
more effective than him, which 

588
00:35:27,720 --> 00:35:30,920
is a little concerning. 
I I definitely think that Kareem

589
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:34,400
Hunt is undervalued right now. 
And then the Bills don't have a 

590
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:36,760
premium piece other than Josh 
Allen. 

591
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:40,520
So you end up in this weird 
circumstance where if you're 

592
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:44,280
playing the NFC as your primary 
stack, you're taking ANFC 

593
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:49,840
quarterback. 
All these AFC teams that are 

594
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:54,960
likely to make the Super Bowl 
have these kind of less than 

595
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:59,960
fantastic fantasy pieces except 
for, you know, Josh Allen, who's

596
00:35:59,960 --> 00:36:03,320
the quarterback. 
And so if you're trying to play 

597
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:06,600
like, say you're playing the 
Lions or the Eagles to face the 

598
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:10,640
Bills in the Super Bowl, I, I 
mean, with the Lions, it feels 

599
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:15,000
particularly bad because if it 
is a Lions, Bills, Super Bowl 

600
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:19,280
and you show up with Jared Goff 
against Josh Allen, like, aren't

601
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:21,800
you, aren't you a pretty big 
underdog here? 

602
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:31,840
Yeah, Yeah, 'cause I mean you're
looking at the the two V2 is you

603
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:37,360
got to have one of Gibbs or 
Almond raw with your golf and 

604
00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:42,960
the Josh Allen team gets to have
Josh Allen probably plus James 

605
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:45,200
Cook. 
And then their third pick could 

606
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:47,440
easily be Jameson Williams, 
right? 

607
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:50,200
And then they can even get 
Khalil Shakira the 4th a lot of 

608
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:52,480
the time. 
And so then you're what? 

609
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:57,880
You're Jamir Gibbs, Jared Goff, 
Sam Laporta like, or Jamir 

610
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:00,080
Gibbs, Jared Goff, Amari Cooper 
like. 

611
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:06,120
It seems like a bad 3. 
D Just by the way, at news just 

612
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:09,560
broke and that Penex is starting
on Sunday. 

613
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:15,240
Wow, I mean good for the good 
for the Falcons for doing that. 

614
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:20,280
Also, holy crap what terrible 
mismanagement by the Falcons to 

615
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,040
find yourself in this situation 
in the 1st place, right? 

616
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:28,200
Well, it just that it makes the 
IT makes the contract to Kirk 

617
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:34,600
Cousins bad and but it does. 
And all the news here is that he

618
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:38,440
received 90 million guaranteed 
that 90 million does not go 

619
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:44,320
away. 
He still gets to keep it and but

620
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:49,760
it does, I guess it it does 
vindicate their decision to drop

621
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:52,280
Penex a little more. 
It does. 

622
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:56,400
I mean it just it just means 
that so good on the Falcons for 

623
00:37:56,400 --> 00:38:00,080
not, you know, not playing into 
the sunk cost fallacy and not 

624
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:03,720
being like, well, we can't take 
Penex because we and Kirk 

625
00:38:03,720 --> 00:38:06,760
Cousins already. 
Like if they found out after the

626
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:09,640
fact that the Kirk Cousins 
signing was a horrific mistake, 

627
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:12,880
then they did the best thing 
they could outside of make that 

628
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:17,040
one horrific mistake. 
But you do hope that, you know, 

629
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:20,320
as a multi billion dollar 
organization you would try to 

630
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:24,240
not make this horrific mistake 
that ties up, you know, a huge 

631
00:38:24,240 --> 00:38:26,840
plurality of your salary cap for
multiple. 

632
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:31,560
Years, right? 
And, and we don't have a yeah, 

633
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:37,160
I'm looking, I'm looking at the 
stats on, on panics this year. 

634
00:38:37,720 --> 00:38:42,360
I'm trying to find drop backs. 
We have 6 panics drop backs this

635
00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:47,880
year. 
So we don't, we don't really 

636
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:52,360
have a, we don't really have any
kind of like sample size here to

637
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:59,720
work with on like knowing, 
knowing how he's going to be and

638
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:05,680
can look up Kirk Cousins. 
So I, I guess that the, the main

639
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:09,280
thing with Kirk Hosens is like, 
for example, they, I think that 

640
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:13,520
Gretsch just messaged me, they 
only drew 18 passes last night 

641
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:18,440
and they had like an extremely 
low, even with their high like 

642
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:22,280
good positive game strip and 
then extremely low pass rate 

643
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:25,040
over expectation. 
So like they were they they 

644
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:27,440
they've been hiding him. 
And I think I saw something as 

645
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:31,920
well that they've only had three
pass completions come outside 

646
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:35,240
the pocket this year. 
Yeah, I mean. 

647
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,360
He's he's a full on statue. 
It's. 

648
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:41,480
Just an extreme limitation on 
the offense. 

649
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:46,440
So I, I, I do hope that that 
having a younger guy in there 

650
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:52,640
kind of does open things up. 
And, and then, and I mean, all 

651
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:55,600
my, yeah, all my Bijan teams, 
all my Drake London teams are 

652
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:58,080
dead. 
Actually, no, I still, I still 

653
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:01,880
have one that's 100 points off 
the lead. 

654
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:04,000
In the Fantasy Pros 
Championship. 

655
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:09,600
So maybe, yeah, maybe Michael 
Panics unlocks those guys and I 

656
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:11,200
can win a main event ticket or 
something. 

657
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:16,240
There you go. 
Well, yeah, I I let's circle 

658
00:40:16,240 --> 00:40:19,480
back to the Josh Allen. 
Like, how do you play the Bills 

659
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:22,960
as a Super Bowl compliment to an
NFC quarterback? 

660
00:40:23,720 --> 00:40:27,960
It just, it feels like you put 
yourself in a bad 2V2 or 3V3 

661
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:29,520
with Goff. 
Certainly. 

662
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:35,360
I mean, the other NFC teams you 
could do it with, I think, I 

663
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:37,160
think. 
Really the only order, the only 

664
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:42,120
other NFCQB where the one V1 
from Josh Allen to that QB 

665
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:46,320
doesn't absolutely kill you as 
Jalen Hurts right? 

666
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:50,000
Any, any other QB, you just 
brought a knife to a gunfight 

667
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:54,560
where like your points drop off 
from Josh Allen to the next guy.

668
00:40:55,240 --> 00:40:59,440
It's so large that you can't 
really overcome it, at least in 

669
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:02,480
terms of expectation at skilled 
position. 

670
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:04,560
I I think that's what it comes 
down to, right? 

671
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:08,320
Yeah, and I think if you find 
yourself 'cause sometimes you're

672
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:10,040
just, you got to play the hand 
you're dealt. 

673
00:41:10,240 --> 00:41:14,360
And sometimes the best thing you
can do is I got to, I got to 

674
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:17,600
play Bills as my my opponent for
the Super Bowl. 

675
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,200
And I'm doing it with a Jordan 
love or I'm doing it with the 

676
00:41:20,200 --> 00:41:23,720
Sam Darnold, Right. 
And I think that if that is the 

677
00:41:23,720 --> 00:41:27,320
situation that you're in, your 
round one pick has to be one of 

678
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:31,720
these elite, you know, advance 
rate helpers like Saquon Barkley

679
00:41:31,720 --> 00:41:34,200
or like you can take an almond 
raw because you can carry an 

680
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:36,400
almond raw. 
If you're if you're playing, you

681
00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:38,680
know, Vikings or Packers, you're
gonna have plenty of round one 

682
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:40,440
firepower. 
So you can get almond raw to 

683
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:43,480
kind of help you and say Lions 
die in the conference 

684
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:46,680
championship round. 
But I think it's pretty 

685
00:41:46,680 --> 00:41:51,080
critically important that you're
using James Cook as your direct 

686
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:54,720
leverage off Josh Allen if you 
are going to play Bills without 

687
00:41:54,720 --> 00:41:57,560
Josh Allen, like if you're 
playing one of these other NFC 

688
00:41:57,560 --> 00:42:00,320
quarterbacks, so. 
I I guess just to just to play 

689
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:04,640
devil's advocate a little bit 
and the last couple of weeks the

690
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:08,360
the Bills opposing quarterbacks 
have actually played lights out 

691
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:12,600
and kind of have kept pace with 
them in terms of fantasy points.

692
00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:15,280
You had Stafford, you and Jared 
Goff. 

693
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:20,240
So even these kind of like just 
competent pocket passers, so not

694
00:42:20,240 --> 00:42:22,960
like not particularly fantasy 
friendly. 

695
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:25,400
I'm still put up the kind of 
huge tweaks. 

696
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:28,960
So I guess that that's the only 
kind of devil's advocate. 

697
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:32,760
I was like, you know, like maybe
with your projection that you're

698
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:35,240
in trouble, but you're not dead 
in the water. 

699
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:38,520
Yeah, you're certainly not dead 
in the water. 

700
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:41,280
It's not something we're like, 
if that's my only choice, I'm 

701
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:43,960
just like, I'm. 
I'm not even going to bother 

702
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:45,920
with this draft. 
It's dead anyway, right? 

703
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:50,400
Still going to try, but if I 
find myself in that scenario, 

704
00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:55,160
I'm really trying hard to use a 
guy like James Cook or at the 

705
00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:59,520
very least some Bills running 
back that's going to have the 

706
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:03,480
possibility to take rushing 
touchdowns to prevent Josh Allen

707
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:04,920
from sucking up all the 
touchdowns. 

708
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:07,680
And yes, it's a, you're talking 
about something that's thin. 

709
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:11,760
But, you know, if you're playing
like a, you know, Packers to the

710
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:14,160
Super Bowl against the Bills, 
you got Jordan Love, You're 

711
00:43:14,160 --> 00:43:16,040
playing Vikings to the Super 
Bowls. 

712
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:18,920
You got Sam Darnold. 
Like, I mean, if the Bills make 

713
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:24,440
the Super Bowl, the the the 
Super Bowl lineups is going to 

714
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:27,120
be like extremely heavy at Josh 
Allen. 

715
00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:29,320
Yeah. 
And, and the really the big 

716
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:33,800
problem too is it's super easy 
to get those bills like with, 

717
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:37,280
with pretty much every bill that
you want, you know, they don't, 

718
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:39,720
they're not terribly expensive 
and a lot of people will just 

719
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:43,480
leave them to you because not 
many of them are very appealing 

720
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:46,520
fantasy pieces. 
So you could very easily start 

721
00:43:46,720 --> 00:43:51,360
Josh Allen, Justin Jefferson, 
Josh Jacobs. 

722
00:43:52,240 --> 00:43:55,800
And then if it is one of those 
like slightly less likely NFC 

723
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:59,920
teams that makes the Super Bowl,
then they have all the insane 

724
00:43:59,920 --> 00:44:03,600
pieces that you do and they just
have the Josh Allen 1V1 off of 

725
00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:06,480
your quarterback. 
So it's, it's rough. 

726
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:09,880
I've been thinking of it a lot 
'cause it's a position you find 

727
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:13,880
yourself in often where you 
know, you're, you're wondering 

728
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:18,040
how I, I dig myself out of this 
with the Bills as my secondary 

729
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:21,000
team, But I, I thought it was 
worth talking about here. 

730
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:22,960
But we can, we can move on to 
the running back chart. 

731
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:24,600
We've. 
Yeah, yeah. 

732
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:27,360
I, I, I was just about to 
message you in the chat. 

733
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:30,000
Hey, we're, we're approaching 
the one hour in mark. 

734
00:44:31,720 --> 00:44:38,120
And so this week we are starting
with the running back expected 

735
00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:42,320
fantasy points on efficiency. 
So we're on strike against the 

736
00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:49,520
the snap rate chart or instead 
instead of, instead of what did 

737
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:51,840
we do last week? 
We, we just kind of referenced 

738
00:44:52,920 --> 00:44:57,360
expected points when we talked 
through the, the snap rate 

739
00:44:57,360 --> 00:44:59,160
chart. 
Maybe we can do the opposite 

740
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:00,960
this week. 
Yeah. 

741
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:05,120
I mean, I think this certainly 
wasn't just a complete accident 

742
00:45:05,120 --> 00:45:07,000
in me ordering the charts in the
wrong way. 

743
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:08,400
That's absolutely not what 
happened. 

744
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:13,200
Very intentional, but I do think
that a lot of the roll stuff is 

745
00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:16,760
pretty defined at this point in 
the season, you know, other than

746
00:45:16,760 --> 00:45:19,160
shake UPS due to injury or 
things like that. 

747
00:45:19,480 --> 00:45:21,120
I mean we can certainly call 
those out. 

748
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:24,480
So it is nice to just see kind 
of what have you done for me 

749
00:45:24,480 --> 00:45:27,440
lately here 'cause this is a 
rolling four week sample for 

750
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:30,240
each running back where we can 
see where their expected points 

751
00:45:30,240 --> 00:45:34,360
are AT and their efficiency. 
I mean, no surprise that Chase 

752
00:45:34,360 --> 00:45:37,680
Brown is incredible here. 
But the one that has the biggest

753
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:40,800
role change is, you know, going 
forward gonna be pretty 

754
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:43,720
exciting. 
Is Jamere Gibbs here where? 

755
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:46,600
I mean, if you look at where 
David Montgomery is on the 

756
00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:49,120
chart, where they're both 
getting about the same expected 

757
00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:52,320
fantasy points from Rushing and 
Montgomery's getting a good 

758
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:54,360
amount of expected receiving 
fantasy points. 

759
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:59,680
Even if you say that only 20% of
this goes to Gibbs and the rest 

760
00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:02,000
goes to Craig Reynolds or the 
rest flows through the passing 

761
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:05,680
game, right? 
Jamere Gibbs only gets 20% of 

762
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:07,680
what David Montgomery is is 
getting. 

763
00:46:08,240 --> 00:46:13,040
That's an extra 3 expected 
fantasy points per game, which 

764
00:46:13,040 --> 00:46:16,400
is a lot like it it it. 
He's going to have like, I think

765
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:20,160
he's going to have 24 mid 20s 
expected points down the 

766
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:21,920
stretch. 
Yeah, I I agree. 

767
00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:24,080
So, Jamir Gibbs. 
And then he's going to stock 

768
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:25,960
efficiency on top of that, 
right? 

769
00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:29,120
Most likely. 
I mean, we're we're running into

770
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:33,520
a spot here where the guys who 
are quote UN quote, meeting the 

771
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:37,600
legendary running back profile 
in these final two weeks of the 

772
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:40,640
fantasy playoffs are Jameer 
Gibbs and Chase Brown. 

773
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:44,280
Those are the legendary running 
backs to close the season out. 

774
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:48,320
Obviously they didn't do it the 
whole way, but if you're saying 

775
00:46:48,320 --> 00:46:52,200
who do you want this week? 
Who should be projected for the 

776
00:46:52,200 --> 00:46:55,080
most points? 
It's gonna be Gibbs and Chase 

777
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:56,760
Brown. 
Like those are the guys getting 

778
00:46:56,760 --> 00:46:59,240
the absurd workload. 
And if you look at the size of 

779
00:46:59,240 --> 00:47:02,280
their data point here, they're 
doing it efficiently too. 

780
00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:05,880
Like they are handling huge 
volume and they are efficient 

781
00:47:05,880 --> 00:47:11,440
with it. 
Right, yeah and yeah, makes them

782
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:16,040
makes sense for sure like just 
25 expected points. 

783
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:19,760
A game is like such like an 
absurd one, yeah. 

784
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:23,440
But I I don't see how you get 
like get to any other answer. 

785
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:29,680
Right the I had a question for 
you about playoff best fall 

786
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:35,280
because the Buccaneers are one 
of the better spots in playoff 

787
00:47:35,280 --> 00:47:39,800
basketball right now. 
The tough part is Mike Evans is 

788
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:43,360
overpriced. 
People understand Buck's good, 

789
00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:48,080
me want Buck's, therefore me 
take Mike Evans very early. 

790
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:51,800
And so Mike Evans goes like in 
the fourth round sometimes, 

791
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:54,400
which is just absurd. 
They're not, you know, their 

792
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:56,320
Super Bowl probability is next 
to nothing. 

793
00:47:56,320 --> 00:47:59,080
They're very, very low to 
actually go deep in the 

794
00:47:59,080 --> 00:48:01,240
tournament, which is what you 
really need. 

795
00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:05,920
But as far as round one, advance
rate boosters like the Bucks are

796
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:09,360
pretty incredible and their 
running backs too, are really 

797
00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:13,960
interesting. 
So I wanted to ask you like I 

798
00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:16,840
know, I know you're gonna be on 
board with taking Bucky Irving 

799
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:19,280
as a way to boost your advance 
rate round one in these, you 

800
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:22,240
know, situations where you need 
this round one running backs. 

801
00:48:22,240 --> 00:48:25,840
You got a bye week running back 
or what have you, or even you 

802
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:27,240
don't have bye week running 
backs. 

803
00:48:27,240 --> 00:48:30,480
You just end up really weak at 
running back because you're in 

804
00:48:30,480 --> 00:48:33,560
the back half of the board and 
you do something like Jared 

805
00:48:33,560 --> 00:48:35,680
Goff, Almonra or Jalen Hurts, 
A.J. 

806
00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:38,240
Brown. 
And oftentimes a good running 

807
00:48:38,240 --> 00:48:41,560
back that's playing in round one
doesn't come back to you. 

808
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:45,520
And so you end up having to do 
like 3 really late running backs

809
00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:49,920
like, you know, Kenneth 
Gainwell, Craig Reynolds, that 

810
00:48:49,920 --> 00:48:52,520
type of stuff. 
And then you're looking at God, 

811
00:48:52,520 --> 00:48:54,600
Gee, what am I going to do for, 
for week 1? 

812
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:57,600
And that's where Bucky Irving 
kind of slots in. 

813
00:48:57,600 --> 00:49:01,800
But I I wanted to ask you if 
Bucky is gone. 

814
00:49:02,280 --> 00:49:04,200
Right. 
So he's he's the easy button 

815
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:06,440
answer are. 
You OK with Rashad White if you 

816
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:10,080
really need that round one help?
Yeah, yeah. 

817
00:49:10,320 --> 00:49:20,560
And I mean, it's not as fun, but
like he he he he's an important 

818
00:49:20,560 --> 00:49:24,640
passing then back for Dome and 
he certainly has big, big weeks.

819
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:30,600
So I think you're, you're, 
you're probably let me check in 

820
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:37,320
on, let me check in on the 
expected points trend for Rashad

821
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:40,240
White. 
Yeah, I believe he's on the 

822
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:42,680
other chart. 
If you do want to just switch 

823
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:43,840
that one and pull it up. 
Yeah. 

824
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:47,520
I'll, I'll switch that one. 
I just, I also kind of want to 

825
00:49:47,520 --> 00:49:51,800
see the most recent trends right
here. 

826
00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:57,120
So you're looking at, you're 
looking at kind of mid, low to 

827
00:49:57,120 --> 00:50:03,680
mid teens expected points and 
yeah, somewhere somewhere 

828
00:50:03,680 --> 00:50:08,440
between 10 and 15 expected 
points a game. 

829
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:15,720
And, and now that's PPR. 
So you gotta, I, I guess you 

830
00:50:15,720 --> 00:50:20,600
have to, you have to cut that a 
little bit. 

831
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:24,880
So you're probably we'll just 
call it like 8 to 12 expected 

832
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:28,680
hot PPR points. 
And that's not I, I don't think 

833
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:32,760
that's very sexy for like a week
one thing, but it's not the end 

834
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:35,960
of the world. 
And and and maybe you get 20 and

835
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:39,680
it helps you move on. 
Yeah, yeah, he's I, I think he's

836
00:50:39,680 --> 00:50:41,720
fine. 
I basically just wanted your 

837
00:50:41,720 --> 00:50:44,000
your permission to click Rashad 
White because he feels really 

838
00:50:44,000 --> 00:50:46,760
gross. 
The other one that's starting to

839
00:50:46,760 --> 00:50:49,520
come on now. 
But I mean, you want to talk 

840
00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:52,880
about overpriced people are, are
treating the Rams like they're 

841
00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:57,480
God's gift to playoff bestball. 
I mean, the the crazy thing 

842
00:50:57,480 --> 00:51:01,280
about the Rams is yes, they are 
the favorite to make the 

843
00:51:01,280 --> 00:51:05,760
playoffs now out of their 
division, but I mean their 

844
00:51:05,760 --> 00:51:08,000
probability is still far from 
certain. 

845
00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:10,560
I mean just. 
Like it's like a 6040 split 

846
00:51:10,560 --> 00:51:16,120
between the Rams and and and 
who's the other one? 

847
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:20,760
Yeah, the the Rams are 60%. 
We have Seahawks is 36 percent 

848
00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:21,560
30. 
Six. 

849
00:51:21,560 --> 00:51:23,320
Yeah, yeah, yeah. 
It's the Seahawks. 

850
00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:26,840
And that's that's subject to 
change based on if Gino. 

851
00:51:26,840 --> 00:51:28,960
Is well, like, that's not. 
What's that? 

852
00:51:29,440 --> 00:51:32,240
That's subject to change based 
on if Gino is is healthier. 

853
00:51:32,240 --> 00:51:35,000
OK. 
But that's basically 6040. 

854
00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:38,000
Yeah, which? 
In our brain is like, oh, that's

855
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:42,560
a clear leader, but it's not 
that far from 5050 either, 

856
00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:46,400
right? 
It's a lot closer to 5050 than 

857
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:48,760
it is to 100. 
Right. 

858
00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:51,600
But yeah, I mean like San 
Francisco all what 

859
00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:54,640
mathematically eliminated 
Arizona only 4%. 

860
00:51:55,120 --> 00:51:59,480
So you've got, you know, Ram 
Seahawks here and it's it's 

861
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:01,680
pretty darn close to a coin 
flip. 

862
00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:08,120
But yeah, 6040 thereabouts. 
I would say like if I wanted to,

863
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:11,840
if you were going to kind of 
take away Arizona's probability 

864
00:52:12,080 --> 00:52:14,680
in San Francisco and just 
consolidate them, I'd probably 

865
00:52:14,680 --> 00:52:19,000
consolidate it more to LA And 
then if you want to just say, 

866
00:52:19,360 --> 00:52:22,800
oh, Gino. 35 is what you were 
saying. 

867
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:26,600
Yeah, and even if Gino comes 
back, he's he's gonna be worse 

868
00:52:26,600 --> 00:52:29,520
cause of the injury. 
So maybe it's 7030, but still 

869
00:52:29,520 --> 00:52:34,080
like 70% is right on the 
borderline of where I feel good 

870
00:52:34,080 --> 00:52:37,880
about drafting these guys and 
usually I just won't bother when

871
00:52:37,880 --> 00:52:41,080
they're that, you know, there. 
I'll wait for it to, you know, 

872
00:52:41,520 --> 00:52:45,560
condense a little bit and get 
the a little bit closer to what 

873
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:48,560
we're gonna, you know, see is 
the actual seating down the 

874
00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:51,960
road. 
But the Rams are already getting

875
00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:54,080
priced up. 
Like, for example, the. 

876
00:52:54,080 --> 00:52:57,680
Usual argument of you'll still 
get them cheap later does not 

877
00:52:57,680 --> 00:52:59,680
exist. 
No, yeah, the the Rams, I. 

878
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:02,360
Mean they were so excited to 
drop the Rams. 

879
00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:05,000
Because Puka Puka has an ADP of 
30. 

880
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:11,200
Kyron has an ADP of 37. 
You know, so you're, you're not 

881
00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:15,640
getting these guys. 
Now we've got an algorithm that 

882
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:19,560
prices players based on their 
likelihood of actually 

883
00:53:19,560 --> 00:53:22,200
contributing points in the 
meaningful rounds and how likely

884
00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:26,360
they are to actually score 
points and, and how many points 

885
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:30,720
they would score. 
And so with our stuff, Kyron 

886
00:53:30,720 --> 00:53:37,320
comes out as worth right about 
the 46th to 49th pick, somewhere

887
00:53:37,320 --> 00:53:40,640
in that range. 
So we think Kyron is worth right

888
00:53:40,640 --> 00:53:44,640
about a, you know, you could 
sell me on a late 7th, you know,

889
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:47,960
but he's really like an eighth 
round pick and people are taking

890
00:53:47,960 --> 00:53:53,840
him, you know, pick 37, so. 
Eight, yeah, or 37? 

891
00:53:53,840 --> 00:53:56,200
You're right. 37 So 2 rounds 
overvalued. 

892
00:53:56,760 --> 00:53:58,240
Yeah. 
So it's it's really tough. 

893
00:53:58,240 --> 00:54:00,600
Now, here's here's the thing, 
though. 

894
00:54:01,040 --> 00:54:06,040
Often times in playoff 
basketball, the opportunity cost

895
00:54:06,040 --> 00:54:09,520
is not what it seems. 
You might say like, oh, if you 

896
00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:12,520
take Kyron there, you're passing
on like Amari Cooper. 

897
00:54:12,520 --> 00:54:15,080
And you really need that. 
You know, Amari, and I believe 

898
00:54:15,080 --> 00:54:17,040
Amari Cooper has a much higher 
ADP than that. 

899
00:54:17,040 --> 00:54:20,120
But the Bills guys just fall 
because people will let them 

900
00:54:20,120 --> 00:54:23,360
slide. 
And so you might be thinking, 

901
00:54:23,360 --> 00:54:25,680
oh, you missed out on this guy 
who actually plays in the Super 

902
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:27,840
Bowl. 
I will say there are certain 

903
00:54:27,840 --> 00:54:33,520
circumstances where if you need 
this round one advance, I'm not 

904
00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:36,040
going to be quite as shy about 
reaching for it. 

905
00:54:36,760 --> 00:54:40,960
What I would say is like don't 
just draft the Rams just to 

906
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:43,880
draft the Rams. 
So if you don't need that help 

907
00:54:43,880 --> 00:54:46,600
in round one, it's one of the 
worst picks you can make because

908
00:54:46,600 --> 00:54:51,160
of how overpriced it is. 
But if you have BI teams, you 

909
00:54:51,160 --> 00:54:55,240
can certainly justify drafting 
them early because oftentimes 

910
00:54:55,240 --> 00:54:58,600
your last pick or your last two 
picks might just be these like 

911
00:54:58,600 --> 00:55:03,560
punt pieces that fill out your 
last or last two guys on your 

912
00:55:03,560 --> 00:55:06,440
Super Bowl lineup. 
And you're taking a guy like 

913
00:55:06,600 --> 00:55:11,480
Kareem Hunt and Tim Patrick, you
know, or you're doing like. 

914
00:55:13,000 --> 00:55:18,640
Speaking of of of Murray Cooper 
dough, what happened to him in 

915
00:55:18,880 --> 00:55:23,400
in Week 15? 
So I, I guess he played 32 

916
00:55:23,400 --> 00:55:25,160
snaps. 
So he ran the Reds. 

917
00:55:25,160 --> 00:55:27,360
He just did not get targeted. 
No targets. 

918
00:55:27,360 --> 00:55:30,360
Yeah, I I think, I mean, really,
that's wild. 

919
00:55:30,560 --> 00:55:34,280
I think Week 14 was just a a 
crazy anomaly more than 

920
00:55:34,280 --> 00:55:36,240
anything. 
It wasn't like this is the new 

921
00:55:36,240 --> 00:55:37,960
trend. 
Amari Cooper is now integrated 

922
00:55:37,960 --> 00:55:40,440
into the offense. 
It was just the Bills were in 

923
00:55:40,440 --> 00:55:44,240
super comeback mode, right? 
They were, they were trying hard

924
00:55:44,240 --> 00:55:49,000
to come back all Week 14. 
And then you just get all of 

925
00:55:49,000 --> 00:55:51,680
this passing and Amari Cooper 
happened to be there as a warm 

926
00:55:51,680 --> 00:55:52,960
body. 
He's going to catch him. 

927
00:55:53,880 --> 00:56:01,520
Well, he also had 25% targets 
per run in, in week 13, but he's

928
00:56:01,520 --> 00:56:08,080
kind of been consistently in 
this 50 to 60% route run rate. 

929
00:56:08,800 --> 00:56:15,440
And then actually I, I, I can't 
tell from this report how many, 

930
00:56:15,520 --> 00:56:23,440
how many routes he ran and. 
I can I can see if I can pull 

931
00:56:23,440 --> 00:56:29,560
that up. 
So he had he had 15 routes last 

932
00:56:29,560 --> 00:56:30,840
week. 
OK. 

933
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:36,960
Of his snaps, 15 were 15 were 
routes he played. 

934
00:56:36,960 --> 00:56:39,720
He played almost double dots. 
So he's kind of used as a yeah, 

935
00:56:39,720 --> 00:56:50,440
as a run blocker. 
And the Josh Allen had 37 drop 

936
00:56:50,440 --> 00:56:52,920
backs. 
So how many routes did I say he 

937
00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:54,560
had? 
He had 15. 

938
00:56:55,120 --> 00:56:59,400
So he had a good bit less. 
So he had like 40% routes. 

939
00:56:59,400 --> 00:57:00,120
Yeah, right. 
Right. 

940
00:57:00,120 --> 00:57:05,680
About 40%, give or take. 
Yeah, that's fuck, I mean, I 

941
00:57:05,720 --> 00:57:10,160
we're on the running back chart 
and but that feels really close 

942
00:57:10,160 --> 00:57:14,400
to me to like the the role 
player that you tack on at the 

943
00:57:14,440 --> 00:57:21,840
end of a a Super Bowl run stuck.
Right, He's he's not his his 

944
00:57:21,840 --> 00:57:24,200
cost is a little much for what 
he is. 

945
00:57:26,080 --> 00:57:29,560
And and yeah, like, sure, he's 
probably a better bet to to 

946
00:57:29,600 --> 00:57:32,040
outscore, you know, Keon Coleman
or something. 

947
00:57:33,160 --> 00:57:35,600
But like, is he really that 
much? 

948
00:57:35,600 --> 00:57:38,760
I mean, like Dalton Kincaid 
probably has a better floor than

949
00:57:38,760 --> 00:57:42,720
Amari Cooper because when Dalton
Dalton Kincaid gets so much 

950
00:57:42,720 --> 00:57:45,960
stuff just like forced to him, 
he'll get his right. 

951
00:57:46,320 --> 00:57:48,480
Amari Cooper can can totally 
goose you. 

952
00:57:48,480 --> 00:57:54,040
So it's just the really, this is
just more like systemic for the 

953
00:57:54,040 --> 00:57:57,200
bills, Like all these bills 
pieces kind of stink. 

954
00:57:57,720 --> 00:57:59,920
It's it's literal. 
Do you think, Yeah, the reason 

955
00:57:59,920 --> 00:58:03,160
Amari played less is because of 
Kian Coleman? 

956
00:58:03,160 --> 00:58:06,040
Actually I. 
Mean it could, because he was 

957
00:58:06,040 --> 00:58:06,840
finally. 
Active. 

958
00:58:07,400 --> 00:58:13,960
Yeah, I do wonder if so Amari 
was at 60% when they were 

959
00:58:13,960 --> 00:58:16,240
missing him. 
He drops to 40. 

960
00:58:16,920 --> 00:58:21,680
And by the way, Keon Coleman's 
only at 54% in his active game. 

961
00:58:22,600 --> 00:58:27,080
Like I do wonder if he gets if 
he gets healthier and maybe 

962
00:58:27,080 --> 00:58:32,040
plays better off the injury, if 
that kind of crushes Amari. 

963
00:58:32,040 --> 00:58:35,880
Now the pure baseless, not 
baseless speculation, but pure 

964
00:58:35,880 --> 00:58:38,040
speculation. 
That's the the range of 

965
00:58:38,040 --> 00:58:42,400
possibilities there like that. 
I, I, I, I I do think that's 

966
00:58:42,400 --> 00:58:46,440
something to keep an eye on. 
Yeah, yeah, definitely a good 

967
00:58:46,560 --> 00:58:49,520
call. 
Let's go back to running back 

968
00:58:49,520 --> 00:58:52,720
charts and kind of close these 
ones out and then we can move on

969
00:58:52,720 --> 00:58:55,000
to tight end charts. 
Actually stay on that last one 

970
00:58:55,000 --> 00:58:58,080
here 'cause the the next guy 
we're gonna talk about is 

971
00:58:58,080 --> 00:59:01,080
surprisingly a deviation from 
talking about playoff best ball.

972
00:59:01,080 --> 00:59:03,400
Yes, we're gonna talk about 
something that could be helpful 

973
00:59:03,400 --> 00:59:07,280
for setting your season long 
fantasy roster or if you've got 

974
00:59:07,280 --> 00:59:10,040
teams in the Sprint or even 
playing DFS. 

975
00:59:10,040 --> 00:59:16,000
So Rico Dowdle coming on at the 
right time, I. 

976
00:59:16,000 --> 00:59:18,600
Love how you framed that it 
wasn't just a reason to talk 

977
00:59:18,600 --> 00:59:21,920
about Rico Dowdle. 
It was like, oh, we're really 

978
00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:24,800
trying to help you with your 
with your season long lineup 

979
00:59:24,800 --> 00:59:25,840
Saturday. 
No, no. 

980
00:59:25,840 --> 00:59:28,120
I mean, I, I think he's pretty 
interesting. 

981
00:59:28,840 --> 00:59:32,160
He's getting the vast majority 
of the work now, Like the 

982
00:59:32,160 --> 00:59:35,200
Cowboys are doing the most 
Cowboys thing imaginable. 

983
00:59:35,200 --> 00:59:37,880
Or they're like ruining their 
draft pick that they could have 

984
00:59:37,880 --> 00:59:41,160
gotten and just like getting 
into the round the range of the 

985
00:59:41,160 --> 00:59:44,360
draft where, like, this class is
probably not. 

986
00:59:44,600 --> 00:59:46,560
I mean, from what I've heard, 
it's not supposed to be 

987
00:59:46,560 --> 00:59:49,840
particularly deep. 
So they're like just swimming 

988
00:59:49,840 --> 00:59:53,680
out into the ocean where there's
absolutely no help and just 

989
00:59:53,680 --> 00:59:57,640
setting themselves up to drown, 
you know, for yet another year. 

990
00:59:58,560 --> 01:00:02,240
But they're they're trying and 
they seem motivated like this is

991
01:00:02,240 --> 01:00:04,320
the best game from their defense
in quite a while. 

992
01:00:04,320 --> 01:00:06,000
Like their pass rush was getting
home. 

993
01:00:06,840 --> 01:00:09,680
Rico Dowdle getting a ton of 
carries, ton of yards, didn't 

994
01:00:09,680 --> 01:00:13,360
find the end zone, but 149 
rushing yards pretty good. 

995
01:00:13,640 --> 01:00:16,640
Zeke is all but an afterthought.
Hunter Lipke is actually. 

996
01:00:17,480 --> 01:00:20,160
More like a fullback. 
Now they're like, it took the 

997
01:00:20,160 --> 01:00:23,120
Cowboys damn near the entire 
season to figure out Rico Dowdle

998
01:00:23,120 --> 01:00:26,480
was their their primary running 
back and like basically needs to

999
01:00:26,480 --> 01:00:30,520
be a workhorse, but they figured
it. 

1000
01:00:30,520 --> 01:00:35,760
Out so, so he's, he's on the 
field 71% of or he was on the 

1001
01:00:35,760 --> 01:00:41,840
field 71% of snaps in week 15 
and he had 12.1 expected points 

1002
01:00:42,680 --> 01:00:47,960
and Zeke was on the field just 
20% of time, 20% of snaps. 

1003
01:00:48,880 --> 01:00:56,120
And so yeah, I, I like 12 
expected points per game is like

1004
01:00:56,200 --> 01:00:57,960
a border. 
It's it's like that's like a 

1005
01:00:57,960 --> 01:01:00,560
borderline or B1 like that's 
where you get that. 

1006
01:01:01,120 --> 01:01:04,480
I don't, I'm not sure exactly 
where that ranks among how 

1007
01:01:04,480 --> 01:01:08,240
somebody would would project 
running backs, but it's it's 

1008
01:01:08,240 --> 01:01:11,760
very startable. 
He he'll I would bet he's gonna 

1009
01:01:11,760 --> 01:01:17,760
project as like a mid to high 
end RV 2 this next week, maybe a

1010
01:01:17,760 --> 01:01:20,440
low in RV 1:00. 
But you get the Cowboys get the 

1011
01:01:20,440 --> 01:01:23,880
bucks on a Sunday night game. 
So this is a showdown slate. 

1012
01:01:24,240 --> 01:01:28,360
I mean Rico Dowdle captain is 
gonna be popular. 

1013
01:01:28,360 --> 01:01:30,720
Rico Dowdle flex is gonna be 
popular. 

1014
01:01:30,760 --> 01:01:34,160
They don't I don't believe they 
have the pricing out for it yet.

1015
01:01:34,160 --> 01:01:37,680
I'm gonna. 
I'll pull up the the DraftKings 

1016
01:01:37,680 --> 01:01:39,120
lobby. 
I told you, we're gonna actually

1017
01:01:39,120 --> 01:01:42,200
talk about, you know how how 
useful Rico Dowdle is. 

1018
01:01:42,200 --> 01:01:44,800
This isn't just like a random 
Rico Dowdle victory lap out of 

1019
01:01:44,800 --> 01:01:45,840
nowhere. 
Certainly not. 

1020
01:01:45,840 --> 01:01:48,880
We'd never do such a thing. 
We don't. 

1021
01:01:48,920 --> 01:01:51,200
Think for that. 
No, no, no, no, no, no. 

1022
01:01:51,240 --> 01:01:53,480
I'm I. 
This is a serious show about 

1023
01:01:53,680 --> 01:01:55,920
that. 
Only listen, I'm a principled 

1024
01:01:55,920 --> 01:01:58,120
man. 
I'd never victory lap one of my 

1025
01:01:58,120 --> 01:02:01,440
highest own players. 
That was a fantastic process 

1026
01:02:01,440 --> 01:02:04,280
pick. 
Absolutely incredibly 

1027
01:02:04,800 --> 01:02:08,080
undervalued player, you know, 
being priced at his absolute 

1028
01:02:08,080 --> 01:02:11,440
floor. 
Yeah, we we wouldn't talk about 

1029
01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:14,960
Rico Dowdle unless you really 
thought that it was vital to 

1030
01:02:14,960 --> 01:02:16,360
your success as a. 
Fantasy. 

1031
01:02:17,120 --> 01:02:19,080
That's what we're about here on 
stat chasing. 

1032
01:02:19,640 --> 01:02:21,560
I think that's all the useful 
Rico Dowdle talk. 

1033
01:02:21,560 --> 01:02:23,640
They don't even have that 
showdown slate up yet, so I 

1034
01:02:23,640 --> 01:02:26,640
can't. 
OK, we can go to tight ends. 

1035
01:02:27,560 --> 01:02:31,720
All right, moving to tight ends.
Well, I know everybody. 

1036
01:02:31,720 --> 01:02:35,000
Everybody who had Rico Dal was 
really worried about playing 

1037
01:02:35,000 --> 01:02:36,400
them. 
They were they. 

1038
01:02:36,480 --> 01:02:39,200
Needed God, we've we've given 
you confidence now. 

1039
01:02:39,640 --> 01:02:43,120
Actually, no, we're skipping. 
We're skipping and this chart 

1040
01:02:45,040 --> 01:02:47,480
kind of nice still saying tuba 
up there even though they had 

1041
01:02:47,480 --> 01:02:51,520
they had that rough game. 
He's still got that chokehold on

1042
01:02:51,520 --> 01:02:54,640
on snaps. 
Tuba buried me in DFS this week,

1043
01:02:54,640 --> 01:02:55,800
though I don't want to see his 
name. 

1044
01:02:58,520 --> 01:03:00,680
You're like a spurned, spurned 
lover. 

1045
01:03:01,000 --> 01:03:04,640
I mean, really, really. 
What I did, though, was I 

1046
01:03:04,640 --> 01:03:08,040
absorbed all of the run bad so 
that Shady could have the run 

1047
01:03:08,040 --> 01:03:10,040
good at the Nashville Live 
final. 

1048
01:03:10,960 --> 01:03:14,200
So I'm just, you know, I'm the 
truest friend someone could ask 

1049
01:03:14,200 --> 01:03:16,160
for. 
Falling on the run. 

1050
01:03:16,160 --> 01:03:18,160
Bad grenade for Shady so that he
could shift. 

1051
01:03:18,160 --> 01:03:21,360
That's so kind of you. 1.5 mil 
yeah, I mean these are the 

1052
01:03:21,360 --> 01:03:25,480
things that he he took second 
place and he had I think he also

1053
01:03:25,480 --> 01:03:28,320
got like 9th and had some other 
he had 8. 

1054
01:03:28,920 --> 01:03:33,160
So I it was a good day. 
It was a good day. 

1055
01:03:33,600 --> 01:03:35,560
Yeah, second place in the live 
final. 

1056
01:03:35,560 --> 01:03:38,200
I bet that's still that. 
That's a lot of money. 

1057
01:03:38,760 --> 01:03:42,120
Yeah the second was worth a mil 
and 1/4 and then everything all 

1058
01:03:42,120 --> 01:03:45,160
together was like 1 1/2. 
So shout out to Shady. 

1059
01:03:46,480 --> 01:03:48,880
Pretty pretty fantastic he was 
the only dude. 

1060
01:03:48,880 --> 01:03:52,480
This is how sick Shady is. 
The only guy to play Breece Hall

1061
01:03:53,000 --> 01:03:57,160
in the entire live final is 
literally the one line up of 200

1062
01:03:57,160 --> 01:03:59,880
that played Breece Hall and it 
almost worked out. 

1063
01:03:59,880 --> 01:04:04,400
He had a Aaron Rodgers double 
with Breece Hall and Devante 

1064
01:04:04,400 --> 01:04:06,160
Adams. 
Those pretty nuts. 

1065
01:04:06,160 --> 01:04:09,880
Unfortunately it also had Chuba 
so I couldn't save him from all 

1066
01:04:09,880 --> 01:04:12,760
the Chuba run bad, but I did 
enough. 

1067
01:04:12,760 --> 01:04:19,680
I did my part. 
And one, one thing, I guess one 

1068
01:04:19,680 --> 01:04:22,520
note I had on the on the tight 
end chart here. 

1069
01:04:22,720 --> 01:04:28,600
So George Kittle had a pretty 
muted game, but that kind of 

1070
01:04:28,600 --> 01:04:32,680
belies the the under the 
underlying usage was like for 

1071
01:04:32,680 --> 01:04:37,160
this like really strong George 
Kittle game where he had 120 

1072
01:04:37,160 --> 01:04:43,840
area yards, 7 targets, like 21% 
targets for run 70 and A dot. 

1073
01:04:44,320 --> 01:04:47,080
Like the George Kittle game 
could have been fantastic. 

1074
01:04:48,040 --> 01:04:52,600
And that usage is so good. 
So just because we had like a 

1075
01:04:52,600 --> 01:04:56,960
more middling game, I still 
think he's like a very, yeah, a 

1076
01:04:56,960 --> 01:05:00,000
very crucial. 
He's going to have a big say by 

1077
01:05:00,000 --> 01:05:02,360
the end of the year. 
Yeah, he's the one. 

1078
01:05:02,360 --> 01:05:03,840
He's the one you're excited to 
have. 

1079
01:05:03,840 --> 01:05:08,240
I think the 49ers still could 
make some noise here in these 

1080
01:05:08,240 --> 01:05:11,200
final two weeks. 
I mean, they're I would just 

1081
01:05:11,200 --> 01:05:13,680
never count them out for being 
able to be productive on 

1082
01:05:13,680 --> 01:05:15,760
offense, right? 
The Rams game was really weird. 

1083
01:05:15,760 --> 01:05:19,960
It was a, you know, monsoon in 
the first half and that really 

1084
01:05:20,360 --> 01:05:22,080
kind of set the table for the 
game. 

1085
01:05:22,560 --> 01:05:24,920
Just was a really, really ugly 
game. 

1086
01:05:25,320 --> 01:05:30,240
Pretty terrible game to watch. 
But going back to the tight ends

1087
01:05:30,240 --> 01:05:33,720
here, one that we have to talk 
about who I think is gonna be 

1088
01:05:33,720 --> 01:05:37,920
very relevant for all formats 
here coming down the stretch and

1089
01:05:38,200 --> 01:05:42,000
was pretty pivotal for anyone 
who won big at DFS this last 

1090
01:05:42,000 --> 01:05:45,600
week is Bretton Strange. 
Now he's he's on the backup 

1091
01:05:45,600 --> 01:05:49,200
tight ends chart for for right 
now because we're using a 

1092
01:05:49,200 --> 01:05:52,800
rolling four week sample here. 
But if you could pull up his 

1093
01:05:52,800 --> 01:05:54,800
specific numbers for last week, 
I think. 

1094
01:05:55,080 --> 01:06:04,200
He 84 percent, 84% run, 28% 
targets per run, and that's at 

1095
01:06:04,200 --> 01:06:08,560
12 targets for for 52 area 
yards. 

1096
01:06:09,280 --> 01:06:12,360
I mean, he's basically a one for
one replacement for Evan Ingram 

1097
01:06:12,360 --> 01:06:15,480
here. 
Yeah, yeah, He had that like 4.3

1098
01:06:15,480 --> 01:06:20,360
A dot, so like a A1 for one. 
I do think he had, didn't he 

1099
01:06:20,360 --> 01:06:23,040
have a spot? 
He had a spot start during the 

1100
01:06:23,040 --> 01:06:26,760
year where his usage numbers 
were also incredible. 

1101
01:06:27,040 --> 01:06:29,760
It was it was the game where 
Evan Ingram was late scratched 

1102
01:06:29,760 --> 01:06:33,160
with a hamstring and I believe 
they were playing, I can't 

1103
01:06:33,160 --> 01:06:36,840
remember who it was, I want to 
say Browns or it was someone 

1104
01:06:36,840 --> 01:06:40,280
with a really strong pass rush. 
And we've seen Doug Peterson 

1105
01:06:40,280 --> 01:06:43,760
does this shit where when when 
they're facing. 

1106
01:06:43,760 --> 01:06:46,120
Well, his A dot in that game was
actually really high. 

1107
01:06:46,120 --> 01:06:48,240
He had like a 15-A dot. 
Yeah. 

1108
01:06:48,240 --> 01:06:51,800
He had like 8 targets, would 
have like 130 area yards. 

1109
01:06:51,800 --> 01:06:54,320
He like LED tight ends in area 
yards that week. 

1110
01:06:54,960 --> 01:06:57,280
Now he didn't catch very many, 
many of them. 

1111
01:06:57,280 --> 01:07:02,680
It wasn't a very good game. 
But like, hey, and we, we, we 

1112
01:07:02,680 --> 01:07:05,120
certainly, we certainly 
appreciate strong tight end 

1113
01:07:05,120 --> 01:07:06,240
usage. 
Yeah. 

1114
01:07:06,320 --> 01:07:08,880
So. 
Strange is Strange is a really, 

1115
01:07:09,160 --> 01:07:12,440
really good one. 
For like lots of, lots of those 

1116
01:07:12,440 --> 01:07:17,040
spots are tight ends, like they 
have the spot start and then 

1117
01:07:17,040 --> 01:07:20,360
it's not really a spot start. 
They're like they're in the roll

1118
01:07:20,360 --> 01:07:24,840
around between like 3 different 
guys and then have 50% route. 

1119
01:07:25,160 --> 01:07:28,120
Another guy has 30, then the 
next guy has like 20 or 

1120
01:07:28,120 --> 01:07:33,280
something like that. 
And so it, it, it's not on the 

1121
01:07:33,280 --> 01:07:36,800
radar because he had such a 
strong week, but the, the usage 

1122
01:07:36,800 --> 01:07:38,320
is very strong. 
Right. 

1123
01:07:38,680 --> 01:07:41,840
Yeah, don't. 
I guess the actual thing here is

1124
01:07:42,360 --> 01:07:45,680
don't just think it was a one 
hit wonder like the they used to

1125
01:07:45,680 --> 01:07:48,880
be strong like this. 
This could train for the rest of

1126
01:07:48,880 --> 01:07:50,320
the season. 
Pick them up in your home league

1127
01:07:50,320 --> 01:07:52,000
if you're still in the playoffs.
Yeah. 

1128
01:07:52,720 --> 01:07:55,360
Don't don't like, like Zach 
said, Don't said, Oh, he just 

1129
01:07:55,360 --> 01:07:58,920
did that once. 
Like it's, it's pretty, it's a 

1130
01:07:59,280 --> 01:08:03,960
he's a pretty helpful piece. 
Speaking of tight ends that are 

1131
01:08:03,960 --> 01:08:08,320
coming on due to injury to their
teammates, you get the Zach Ertz

1132
01:08:08,320 --> 01:08:11,800
concussion. 
Now, even prior to the 

1133
01:08:11,800 --> 01:08:15,520
concussion, he was actually 
turning in, you know, a lower 

1134
01:08:15,520 --> 01:08:19,200
snap rate than he's seen for the
rest of the season. 

1135
01:08:19,560 --> 01:08:22,520
So it looked like they were. 
The plan was to get some other 

1136
01:08:22,520 --> 01:08:26,520
guys more involved, at least 
with snaps, but the other guys 

1137
01:08:26,520 --> 01:08:28,200
didn't really get much in the 
way of targets. 

1138
01:08:28,200 --> 01:08:30,160
I think Sonata only got 1 
target. 

1139
01:08:31,000 --> 01:08:35,120
So in in the full game he had 
54% of routes. 

1140
01:08:35,359 --> 01:08:39,560
So I have to imagine if, if, 
what quarter did Zach Arts go in

1141
01:08:39,560 --> 01:08:43,080
and was it the first or second? 
I want to say it was the second 

1142
01:08:43,080 --> 01:08:44,640
quarter, it might have been the 
1st. 

1143
01:08:45,520 --> 01:08:49,399
But I have to imagine he's in 
that 70 to 80% range over full 

1144
01:08:49,399 --> 01:08:53,680
game. 
And but yeah, we need, we need, 

1145
01:08:53,680 --> 01:08:56,600
we need Benson, not targets and 
for it to count. 

1146
01:08:58,160 --> 01:09:02,520
That's actually, that's actually
fantastic news 'cause I still 

1147
01:09:02,520 --> 01:09:07,000
have a, the Bensonhot team 
that's alive. 

1148
01:09:07,800 --> 01:09:09,720
I've 2 Bensonhot teams. 
Let me see. 

1149
01:09:10,439 --> 01:09:14,880
Yeah, I've 2 Bensonhot teams. 
So if we had a, if we had a 

1150
01:09:14,880 --> 01:09:18,680
Bensonhot Hammer game out of 
nowhere, that'd be pretty 

1151
01:09:18,680 --> 01:09:23,840
fantastic. 
Yeah, I, I, I could get, I could

1152
01:09:23,840 --> 01:09:26,960
be into that. 
I think my lone surviving BBM 

1153
01:09:26,960 --> 01:09:30,840
team is A4 tight end team. 
It's literally the only four 

1154
01:09:30,840 --> 01:09:34,240
tight end team I drafted out of 
2300 teams. 

1155
01:09:34,479 --> 01:09:37,600
It's it is the one four tight 
end team I drafted. 

1156
01:09:38,240 --> 01:09:40,160
The the four tight ends are all 
crap, though. 

1157
01:09:40,160 --> 01:09:46,399
It's, you know, Bensonaut, 
Isaiah Likely, Luke Musgrave, 

1158
01:09:46,800 --> 01:09:49,720
who maybe he'll play, you know, 
and I think. 

1159
01:09:50,359 --> 01:09:55,440
Mike Kasiki so right, Oh, oh, we
have a, we have one of our 

1160
01:09:55,440 --> 01:09:57,320
shared teams is events in our 
team. 

1161
01:09:57,640 --> 01:10:01,160
It's kind of tight end premium, 
but we have Trey McBride, which 

1162
01:10:01,160 --> 01:10:04,600
helps. 
But then our only other tight 

1163
01:10:04,600 --> 01:10:09,640
ends are Benson not and Michael 
Meyer. 

1164
01:10:09,720 --> 01:10:13,360
So events and not hit would go 
pretty damn hard. 

1165
01:10:14,240 --> 01:10:18,280
Yeah, so oh man, I can't believe
it all comes down to Sanat here 

1166
01:10:18,480 --> 01:10:22,560
heading into the semi finals. 
It all comes back to Ben Sanat. 

1167
01:10:22,800 --> 01:10:23,360
Think of. 
Now Do. 

1168
01:10:23,560 --> 01:10:26,560
You remember how smart we were 
when we were on Ben Sanat and 

1169
01:10:26,560 --> 01:10:29,080
like the way too early stuff and
you and I were taking him in 

1170
01:10:29,080 --> 01:10:32,120
like the 20th round on FFPC all 
the time and then. 

1171
01:10:32,120 --> 01:10:33,840
All the time we go undrafted 
and. 

1172
01:10:34,440 --> 01:10:37,760
Then you were so smart, Draco. 
And then there was a there was a

1173
01:10:37,760 --> 01:10:40,160
weekend. 
The weekend after the draft, 

1174
01:10:40,280 --> 01:10:43,960
after he went, was a second 
round and you could still get 

1175
01:10:43,960 --> 01:10:45,840
him in like the 18th and 19th 
rounds. 

1176
01:10:45,840 --> 01:10:49,040
And we're like, oh, these 
morons, they're asleep at the 

1177
01:10:49,040 --> 01:10:52,120
wheel. 
He he screamed up fast too. 

1178
01:10:52,120 --> 01:10:55,720
He went up to like the 13th, you
know, right, 14th round pretty 

1179
01:10:55,720 --> 01:10:58,280
quick. 
But you know what? 

1180
01:10:58,280 --> 01:11:00,160
Give me one. 
Spike week, and it's all worth 

1181
01:11:00,160 --> 01:11:03,160
it. 
Oh yeah, I mean, it would be 

1182
01:11:03,160 --> 01:11:04,960
incredible. 
I would love to get a Ben Sinati

1183
01:11:04,960 --> 01:11:09,960
into the finals. 
I OK hang on though we need to 

1184
01:11:11,040 --> 01:11:15,880
re enter the realm of reality 
and leave the realm of opium For

1185
01:11:15,880 --> 01:11:19,720
Bensonaut though how likely do 
you think it is like OK here 

1186
01:11:19,760 --> 01:11:24,360
here you go Bensonaut number of 
targets over under 2 1/2. 

1187
01:11:28,800 --> 01:11:32,480
If if Zach Gertz isn't playing, 
I'd probably put it at like 3 

1188
01:11:32,480 --> 01:11:34,800
1/2. 
OK, I I would have taken the 

1189
01:11:34,800 --> 01:11:37,080
under on 2 1/2. 
Oh really? 

1190
01:11:37,200 --> 01:11:39,360
It with no Zach Hertz. 
Yeah. 

1191
01:11:39,680 --> 01:11:41,880
The under. 
Yeah, 'cause they'll use the 

1192
01:11:41,880 --> 01:11:44,120
other guys too. 
They'll use. 

1193
01:11:44,120 --> 01:11:47,280
Yeah, but like they don't 
actually like the other guys are

1194
01:11:47,280 --> 01:11:51,440
is like is like John Bates. 
Right. 

1195
01:11:51,680 --> 01:11:54,720
I mean, so here's the thing, you
need him. 

1196
01:11:55,360 --> 01:11:58,640
The problem is he needs to earn 
the targets in real time like he

1197
01:11:58,640 --> 01:12:03,000
has to. 
Yeah, but don't don't forget, 

1198
01:12:03,000 --> 01:12:05,320
this guy's a stud. 
I know, I know he's. 

1199
01:12:05,320 --> 01:12:08,080
The best player for Kent for 
Kansas State. 

1200
01:12:08,600 --> 01:12:13,240
He he, yeah, he listen, I I 
don't doubt that if they get him

1201
01:12:13,240 --> 01:12:17,040
the ball early in the game, he 
could flash enough to make them 

1202
01:12:17,040 --> 01:12:20,120
be like, maybe we should get 
this guy the ball a little more.

1203
01:12:20,120 --> 01:12:23,600
But the problem is like he might
not get the ball till maybe it's

1204
01:12:23,600 --> 01:12:25,800
the third quarter when he sees 
his first target. 

1205
01:12:25,800 --> 01:12:28,720
And then they're like, oh shit, 
he's got a little juice. 

1206
01:12:29,360 --> 01:12:34,160
It's just they've been so slow 
to use him for anything that 

1207
01:12:34,160 --> 01:12:37,920
like you would think if he's 
like exploding and practice or 

1208
01:12:37,920 --> 01:12:40,920
flashing or showing a bunch, 
like they'd be a little bit more

1209
01:12:40,920 --> 01:12:42,440
excited to try and get him 
going. 

1210
01:12:42,720 --> 01:12:47,920
So I'm I'm trying to not go 
fully opium and say that it's 

1211
01:12:47,920 --> 01:12:50,680
just the sonat eruption week. 
But you know what? 

1212
01:12:50,720 --> 01:12:54,680
This is going to be so fun to 
see clipped next week when 

1213
01:12:54,680 --> 01:12:59,520
Bensonat gets 10 targets for 8 
receptions, 122 yards and two 

1214
01:12:59,520 --> 01:13:02,160
touchdowns because he's just a 
yak freak. 

1215
01:13:03,400 --> 01:13:06,600
So I'm I'm looking forward to 
the clip where I'm I'm. 

1216
01:13:06,600 --> 01:13:08,120
Pretty as long as he's he's 
lined up. 

1217
01:13:08,360 --> 01:13:10,720
If he's lined up on the right 
hand side of the field, he's 

1218
01:13:10,720 --> 01:13:13,640
getting 10 targets. 
If he's lined up on the left 

1219
01:13:13,640 --> 01:13:16,120
hand side of the field most of 
the game, he's getting one 

1220
01:13:16,120 --> 01:13:17,360
target. 
It's Jover. 

1221
01:13:17,560 --> 01:13:20,120
I mean, shit, maybe they line 
him up as like a fullback sum. 

1222
01:13:20,120 --> 01:13:22,480
We get a little little bent snot
fullback action. 

1223
01:13:24,840 --> 01:13:29,680
Yeah, I, I, it, it honestly, 
it's hard to know, but I mean, 

1224
01:13:31,320 --> 01:13:34,160
obviously tight end is an 
important part of the offense 

1225
01:13:34,400 --> 01:13:38,880
and, and that tight end was 
accurate, but it is important. 

1226
01:13:38,880 --> 01:13:40,800
They don't have a lot of good 
receivers. 

1227
01:13:41,320 --> 01:13:44,840
It is an it is an explosive 
offense. 

1228
01:13:45,160 --> 01:13:47,360
So like that, that is a little 
bit of hope. 

1229
01:13:47,760 --> 01:13:51,120
Like I don't have like a strong 
statistical background. 

1230
01:13:51,120 --> 01:13:53,680
Like normally what you want is 
like, Oh yeah. 

1231
01:13:54,000 --> 01:13:57,880
When they've played on his turf,
but run has been strong like, 

1232
01:13:58,280 --> 01:13:59,960
and now the usage is climbing 
up. 

1233
01:13:59,960 --> 01:14:02,280
You want to be able to say that 
I cannot. 

1234
01:14:02,960 --> 01:14:08,280
And and, and tight end is so 
much what the coach's plan is so

1235
01:14:08,440 --> 01:14:10,800
that you're right, it it does 
make it harder. 

1236
01:14:11,400 --> 01:14:15,480
And but if if he's running all 
the routes all the game and, 

1237
01:14:15,480 --> 01:14:18,440
and, and, and they have to come 
up with some game plan without 

1238
01:14:18,920 --> 01:14:24,160
Zach Hertz, then I don't know 
you could, you could see 

1239
01:14:24,160 --> 01:14:26,720
something. 
So to to put a bow on it, we 

1240
01:14:26,720 --> 01:14:29,960
have very little evidence or 
anything at all based in 

1241
01:14:29,960 --> 01:14:32,640
reality. 
Underground. 

1242
01:14:32,640 --> 01:14:34,680
His college. 
His college highlight reel. 

1243
01:14:34,960 --> 01:14:38,440
Right, Nothing from the NFL to 
tell us that Ben Sanat would 

1244
01:14:38,440 --> 01:14:41,360
score any number of meaningful 
fantasy points this week. 

1245
01:14:41,840 --> 01:14:43,280
But damn it, I hope he does 
right. 

1246
01:14:44,640 --> 01:14:47,840
Pretty much pretty. 
Much last last tight end before 

1247
01:14:47,840 --> 01:14:53,480
we move on here Tucker craft one
of the best picks for playoff 

1248
01:14:53,480 --> 01:14:57,040
best ball on DraftKings. 
I mean where you have to start a

1249
01:14:57,040 --> 01:15:00,480
tight end in this format. 
It almost make tight makes tight

1250
01:15:00,480 --> 01:15:02,640
ends. 
It has like a pseudo tight end 

1251
01:15:02,640 --> 01:15:06,400
premium effect almost where they
just become so important you 

1252
01:15:06,400 --> 01:15:07,480
have. 
To you're talking about 

1253
01:15:07,480 --> 01:15:11,760
DraftKings draftking playoff 
best ball designated tight end. 

1254
01:15:13,160 --> 01:15:15,520
Yeah, and he. 
Goes for free probably. 

1255
01:15:15,800 --> 01:15:18,080
He doesn't go for free. 
He goes in like the middle 

1256
01:15:18,080 --> 01:15:22,760
rounds, but he is more valuable 
than every Packers receiver 

1257
01:15:23,240 --> 01:15:27,360
because the Packers receivers 
are numerous and the tight end 

1258
01:15:27,360 --> 01:15:32,520
spot is mandatory and he plays 
in round one and he has decent 

1259
01:15:32,520 --> 01:15:35,760
conference championship odds and
a decent Super Bowl equity. 

1260
01:15:35,760 --> 01:15:39,280
So like he is a really, really 
strong pick. 

1261
01:15:39,920 --> 01:15:44,560
He is basically almost on par 
with TJ Hawkinson. 

1262
01:15:44,560 --> 01:15:47,600
Hawkinson has a little bit 
better, more consistent fantasy 

1263
01:15:47,600 --> 01:15:51,040
production than him. 
Part of that, though, is relying

1264
01:15:51,040 --> 01:15:54,000
on last year's Hawkinson to say 
like, hey, this is kind of what 

1265
01:15:54,000 --> 01:15:56,400
we see for this guy. 
I mean, this last week for 

1266
01:15:56,400 --> 01:15:59,680
Hawkinson, he was really like, 
he wasn't a major part of the 

1267
01:15:59,680 --> 01:16:03,920
offense at all, you know, So but
I, I do think, you know, if a 

1268
01:16:03,920 --> 01:16:06,440
gun to my head, like, who do I 
want just for raw fantasy 

1269
01:16:06,440 --> 01:16:08,240
points? 
I want TJ Hawkinson over Tucker 

1270
01:16:08,240 --> 01:16:12,880
Kraft like all the time. 
And and you can I mean, even on 

1271
01:16:12,880 --> 01:16:17,280
the chart here you can see it. 
TJ Hawkinson 20% targets per 

1272
01:16:17,280 --> 01:16:21,440
route run 8.6 A dot. 
He's on the field less, but 

1273
01:16:21,440 --> 01:16:23,640
again, you could say part of 
that is just him still being 

1274
01:16:23,640 --> 01:16:27,600
eased back from the injury. 
Tucker Craft only a 14% targets 

1275
01:16:27,600 --> 01:16:31,600
per route run 5.1 A dot is on 
the field a lot. 

1276
01:16:32,560 --> 01:16:34,800
But really? 
I think you have those block and

1277
01:16:34,800 --> 01:16:39,360
release routes where the way he 
has to score points is he 

1278
01:16:39,360 --> 01:16:42,280
catches it short and then just 
bulldozes everybody. 

1279
01:16:42,800 --> 01:16:46,840
Right, right. 
So it's he's, he's really, the 

1280
01:16:46,840 --> 01:16:49,640
reason he's valuable is 'cause 
he'll probably play for a long 

1281
01:16:49,640 --> 01:16:51,680
time in the playoffs. 
His team is good. 

1282
01:16:51,760 --> 01:16:54,920
They, they should be around for 
at least a round or two, if not 

1283
01:16:54,920 --> 01:16:57,000
3. 
And if you get really lucky 

1284
01:16:57,000 --> 01:16:58,760
they're, they make it to the 
Super Bowl, right? 

1285
01:16:58,760 --> 01:17:01,760
So that's why he's good. 
And then also he's a tight end 

1286
01:17:02,360 --> 01:17:05,920
and he is very likely the tight 
end on that team. 

1287
01:17:07,120 --> 01:17:08,680
This is subject to change 
though. 

1288
01:17:08,680 --> 01:17:11,480
Like if Luke Musgrave actually 
comes back this week because 

1289
01:17:11,600 --> 01:17:13,400
he's he's eligible to return 
now. 

1290
01:17:14,840 --> 01:17:18,520
So don't I guess to pour cold 
water on my own. 

1291
01:17:18,520 --> 01:17:20,480
Like Tucker craft is so 
undervalued. 

1292
01:17:21,440 --> 01:17:24,760
If Luke Musgrave comes back this
week and starts eating into 

1293
01:17:24,760 --> 01:17:27,760
Tucker Craft and they both 
become like these kind of 

1294
01:17:28,320 --> 01:17:31,760
rotational guys or they're 
splitting stuff close to even, 

1295
01:17:32,080 --> 01:17:35,760
it's very bad for both of them. 
And then they just both become 

1296
01:17:35,760 --> 01:17:38,600
like total dark throw. 
You know, you punt the tight 

1297
01:17:38,600 --> 01:17:41,720
end, which is a pretty viable 
thing to do in DraftKings 

1298
01:17:41,720 --> 01:17:44,160
playoff basketball just because 
how hard it is to advance. 

1299
01:17:44,160 --> 01:17:47,520
It's one of six advance. 
And the way that lots of the 

1300
01:17:48,160 --> 01:17:53,080
less informed drafters draft on 
DraftKings has a bend towards 

1301
01:17:53,080 --> 01:17:55,960
trying to advance out of round 
one and taking all the players 

1302
01:17:55,960 --> 01:17:59,880
that are are good fantasy 
players like, you know, roster 

1303
01:17:59,880 --> 01:18:03,840
construction be damned. 
So the punt tight end is kind of

1304
01:18:03,840 --> 01:18:08,360
nice because the opportunity 
cost of taking tight ends early 

1305
01:18:08,520 --> 01:18:11,240
where their appropriate value is
for these guys that can actually

1306
01:18:11,240 --> 01:18:14,320
score and separate the position 
is pretty steep. 

1307
01:18:14,360 --> 01:18:17,600
You end up paying like a pretty 
hefty premium for that. 

1308
01:18:17,600 --> 01:18:20,880
You know, you're you're often 
times choosing a good tight end 

1309
01:18:21,280 --> 01:18:24,320
over a really good running back 
who's going to score way more 

1310
01:18:24,320 --> 01:18:27,160
raw points than them and 
probably be able to help you 

1311
01:18:27,160 --> 01:18:31,160
advance better. 
So anyway, that I did feel like 

1312
01:18:31,160 --> 01:18:33,880
it was important to talk about 
Kraft and and then the Packers 

1313
01:18:33,880 --> 01:18:35,960
tight end situation as a whole 
with respect to playoff 

1314
01:18:35,960 --> 01:18:40,200
basketball. 
Yeah, yeah, makes make make 

1315
01:18:40,200 --> 01:18:43,480
sense for sure. 
And so we're, we're, we're 

1316
01:18:43,480 --> 01:18:46,920
moving on to receiver, right? 
Yep, let's hit receiver here. 

1317
01:18:49,000 --> 01:18:55,960
And so your first note about 
receiver was Mike I, I said no, 

1318
01:18:55,960 --> 01:18:57,440
your first note was Malik 
Neighbors. 

1319
01:18:58,720 --> 01:19:03,120
Yeah, I mean, he's he's the most
QB proof receiver, you know, 

1320
01:19:03,120 --> 01:19:07,720
like he he's in that tier of 
receivers that are just the most

1321
01:19:07,720 --> 01:19:09,960
QB proof. 
Like he's up there with CD Lamb,

1322
01:19:09,960 --> 01:19:12,800
he's up there with Justin 
Jefferson, Jamar Chase. 

1323
01:19:12,800 --> 01:19:16,920
Like this guy is just an 
absolute target monster. 

1324
01:19:16,920 --> 01:19:21,920
Like, dude, he has the highest 
weighted targets per route run 

1325
01:19:22,200 --> 01:19:25,800
in the league. 
Like this guy is absolutely 

1326
01:19:25,800 --> 01:19:28,120
absurd. 
He's playing with guys that have

1327
01:19:28,680 --> 01:19:34,000
I mean, really no, guys that 
don't belong in the NFL are 

1328
01:19:34,000 --> 01:19:37,720
throwing him the ball and he's 
still managing to put up 

1329
01:19:38,240 --> 01:19:40,440
somewhat decent fantasy 
performances. 

1330
01:19:41,320 --> 01:19:46,120
Really what what I guess this is
like how how is this actionable?

1331
01:19:46,880 --> 01:19:50,480
He's gonna he's gonna still be 
priced like to a place where 

1332
01:19:50,480 --> 01:19:54,120
it's not like there's no there's
not gonna be some secret on ADFS

1333
01:19:54,120 --> 01:19:56,920
slate where like you get to play
Malik neighbors and he's so 

1334
01:19:56,920 --> 01:19:59,440
mispriced. 
Really. 

1335
01:19:59,440 --> 01:20:03,800
It's just a reminder for next 
year that Malik neighbors with 

1336
01:20:03,880 --> 01:20:07,160
any kind of hope for the giants 
quarterback situation. 

1337
01:20:07,160 --> 01:20:10,880
Like if the Giants get I mean, 
and they they kind of have to 

1338
01:20:10,920 --> 01:20:13,120
right the Giants, there will be 
someone new. 

1339
01:20:13,120 --> 01:20:16,400
Playing Sanders is like wearing 
Giants gear. 

1340
01:20:16,400 --> 01:20:19,400
Like all the time. 
You you think it's him 'cause. 

1341
01:20:19,440 --> 01:20:22,320
I don't know, but I, I think, I 
think it hasn't not been a thing

1342
01:20:22,320 --> 01:20:24,960
where he just been wearing 
Dion's gear or is that a 

1343
01:20:24,960 --> 01:20:26,240
different thing? 
I don't know. 

1344
01:20:26,240 --> 01:20:28,360
I'm not I'm not that plugged in 
on that. 

1345
01:20:29,000 --> 01:20:31,360
But he could definitely be a 
Raider as well. 

1346
01:20:32,920 --> 01:20:36,840
The the problem is I think the 
quarterbacks next year kind of 

1347
01:20:36,840 --> 01:20:41,560
stink outside of Sanders. 
Cam Ward is good too. 

1348
01:20:42,120 --> 01:20:45,440
I think Cam Ward is hot ass. 
He can have me on record for 

1349
01:20:45,440 --> 01:20:46,800
that one. 
Think that guy was terrible. 

1350
01:20:47,200 --> 01:20:48,400
Yeah. 
OK. 

1351
01:20:49,280 --> 01:20:53,480
Cam New Cam Ward will be super 
fortunate if he is as good as 

1352
01:20:53,480 --> 01:20:55,920
Cam Newton was in his last year 
with the Patriots. 

1353
01:20:57,280 --> 01:20:59,080
That is much like an aggressive 
take. 

1354
01:20:59,560 --> 01:21:03,960
Dude, he, I, I went to a game in
person and watched him play. 

1355
01:21:04,520 --> 01:21:09,520
You're not hitting me with the. 
I saw the game, I was there. 

1356
01:21:09,600 --> 01:21:13,240
Dude, I, I'm just, I'm telling 
you like it was the least it, it

1357
01:21:13,240 --> 01:21:17,040
was so painful. 
I was like, why am I subjecting 

1358
01:21:17,040 --> 01:21:19,720
myself to this? 
Like this is not it was. 

1359
01:21:20,080 --> 01:21:22,640
I've seen better quality 
quarterback play at high school 

1360
01:21:22,640 --> 01:21:27,680
games, you know, like it's bad. 
Like there's there is nothing, 

1361
01:21:27,840 --> 01:21:30,800
there is nothing redeeming about
his his game to me. 

1362
01:21:30,800 --> 01:21:37,160
But so but even if even if the 
giants got Cam Ward, the guy 

1363
01:21:37,160 --> 01:21:39,920
that I just said was hot ass 
cheeks that I think is a 

1364
01:21:39,920 --> 01:21:43,240
terrible quarterback, I still 
think it's an upgrade for Malik 

1365
01:21:43,280 --> 01:21:47,040
neighbors. 
And so my point is Malik 

1366
01:21:47,040 --> 01:21:50,200
neighbors probably should be a 
round one best well pick next 

1367
01:21:50,200 --> 01:21:52,440
year. 
And I don't know that he will 

1368
01:21:52,440 --> 01:21:54,840
be. 
I think you get enough giant 

1369
01:21:54,840 --> 01:21:59,000
stink on him that he manages to 
stay in like the second round 

1370
01:21:59,680 --> 01:22:03,880
and he's just a guy that I'll 
have a absolute boatload of. 

1371
01:22:04,600 --> 01:22:09,840
So the other guy that I think is
going to be someone worth 

1372
01:22:09,840 --> 01:22:13,560
talking about here more for like
DFS purposes. 

1373
01:22:13,560 --> 01:22:16,400
But we talked about his 
quarterback already and the 

1374
01:22:16,400 --> 01:22:18,160
friendly schedule that they've 
got coming up. 

1375
01:22:18,480 --> 01:22:23,560
But Devante Adams, I mean, huge 
performance, almost crosses the 

1376
01:22:23,560 --> 01:22:27,080
200 yard mark. 
I mean, him and Aaron Rodgers 

1377
01:22:27,080 --> 01:22:28,840
kind of look like they're having
some fun again. 

1378
01:22:29,440 --> 01:22:33,680
So I'm wondering if Devante 
Adams is just the playoff hammer

1379
01:22:33,680 --> 01:22:36,560
here where you just get him and 
him and Aaron say, you know 

1380
01:22:36,560 --> 01:22:38,960
what? 
This, this might be truly the 

1381
01:22:38,960 --> 01:22:43,560
last hurrah for both of us. 
You know, let's just let's go 

1382
01:22:43,560 --> 01:22:46,440
out on our shield here, see if 
we can do some fun stuff. 

1383
01:22:46,440 --> 01:22:48,760
I I would not be surprised at 
all. 

1384
01:22:48,760 --> 01:22:52,200
I mean, you saw it this last 
week too, where Adams looks like

1385
01:22:52,200 --> 01:22:55,040
he scores the touchdown. 
They call it back. 

1386
01:22:55,240 --> 01:22:57,880
The very next play is a fade to 
Devante Adams. 

1387
01:22:58,840 --> 01:23:05,480
If if you told me that the The 
Jets get 6 attempts at the goal 

1388
01:23:05,480 --> 01:23:09,000
line and or 6 plays that they 
run at the goal line next play 

1389
01:23:09,080 --> 01:23:11,480
or next game. 
If you told me five of them 

1390
01:23:11,480 --> 01:23:14,920
where Devante Adams fades, I 
would not be the least bit 

1391
01:23:14,920 --> 01:23:17,880
surprised. 
Like this just might be like the

1392
01:23:17,880 --> 01:23:21,880
most Aaron Rod, like turn up the
Aaron Rodgers hyper focus his 

1393
01:23:21,880 --> 01:23:23,720
guy. 
Like target one dude. 

1394
01:23:23,720 --> 01:23:26,360
Like be the most greedy for 
touchdowns. 

1395
01:23:26,360 --> 01:23:29,360
Like this was for sure a thing 
back when he was with the 

1396
01:23:29,360 --> 01:23:32,160
Packers where you'd get the 
Packers on the goal line. 

1397
01:23:32,160 --> 01:23:35,480
You're like, yes, I'm going to 
get a touchdown from Aaron Jones

1398
01:23:35,480 --> 01:23:36,240
here. 
He's going to run it. 

1399
01:23:36,240 --> 01:23:38,600
And it's like, Nope, Aaron 
Rodgers wants to throw a 

1400
01:23:38,600 --> 01:23:40,960
touchdown. 
So he's just decided that 

1401
01:23:40,960 --> 01:23:42,640
they're throwing the ball 
instead of running it. 

1402
01:23:42,960 --> 01:23:45,360
And Aaron Rodgers, just the 
touchdown vulture to end all 

1403
01:23:45,360 --> 01:23:47,720
touchdown vultures. 
I wouldn't. 

1404
01:23:47,720 --> 01:23:49,880
It wouldn't be the most 
surprising thing in the world if

1405
01:23:49,880 --> 01:23:51,240
that's the way we saw it play 
out. 

1406
01:23:51,240 --> 01:23:55,240
What do you think? 
They're best buds. 

1407
01:23:55,240 --> 01:24:00,160
He's gotten at least 10 targets 
in the last three games, so and 

1408
01:24:00,160 --> 01:24:02,640
certainly seems like it. 
Certainly seems like it. 

1409
01:24:06,080 --> 01:24:09,800
I sure sure hope so because my 
only surviving 555 team has 

1410
01:24:10,080 --> 01:24:12,160
Devante Adams on it so that'd be
great. 

1411
01:24:12,160 --> 01:24:14,840
If if he can just go out and 
hang another 40 burger, I'd be 

1412
01:24:14,840 --> 01:24:18,800
so happy. 
Wanted to talk about two 

1413
01:24:18,800 --> 01:24:22,600
receivers together here. 
Really it's just more of a team 

1414
01:24:22,600 --> 01:24:26,880
level thing. 
But the Bengals, I mean, the the

1415
01:24:26,880 --> 01:24:31,600
Bengals receivers just both had 
OK days last this last week. 

1416
01:24:32,720 --> 01:24:36,280
Really, they were both like very
close to having great days. 

1417
01:24:37,440 --> 01:24:40,960
Jamar Chase 4 yards shy of 100, 
so just shy of the bonus on 

1418
01:24:40,960 --> 01:24:44,000
DraftKings. 
T Higgins 12 shy of the bonus 

1419
01:24:44,440 --> 01:24:49,040
Jamar Chase just barely short of
another touchdown 2 gets stopped

1420
01:24:49,040 --> 01:24:52,880
at like the one yard line. 
So the the Bengals are just so 

1421
01:24:52,880 --> 01:24:54,880
close to having a monster day 
through the air. 

1422
01:24:54,880 --> 01:24:57,160
Now Chase Brown ends up the 
beneficiary of that a little 

1423
01:24:57,160 --> 01:24:58,760
bit. 
He gets the the touchdown on the

1424
01:24:58,760 --> 01:25:03,800
goal line instead. 
But the the thing that I think 

1425
01:25:03,800 --> 01:25:09,120
is like of note here is Joe 
Burrow was on the sideline after

1426
01:25:09,120 --> 01:25:12,920
they, you know, hung, what was 
it, 37 points on the Titans And 

1427
01:25:12,920 --> 01:25:15,800
he was pissed. 
Joe Burrow was like visibly 

1428
01:25:15,800 --> 01:25:18,880
upset. 
And now the Bengals are, I 

1429
01:25:18,920 --> 01:25:21,320
believe, like all but 
mathematically eliminated. 

1430
01:25:21,320 --> 01:25:23,040
Let me look at their playoff 
probability. 

1431
01:25:23,240 --> 01:25:25,920
We've got them as 3% to make the
playoffs. 

1432
01:25:26,120 --> 01:25:28,080
So all but mathematically 
eliminated. 

1433
01:25:28,760 --> 01:25:30,880
This looks like a team. 
And not to keep them playing. 

1434
01:25:31,600 --> 01:25:37,000
Yeah, yes, this this team is on 
a mission and their mission is 

1435
01:25:37,000 --> 01:25:40,480
to make the real life playoffs. 
But the the actual mission that 

1436
01:25:40,480 --> 01:25:44,400
they are set up to be successful
for is to win your fantasy 

1437
01:25:44,400 --> 01:25:47,240
league. 
Like the Bengals look like any 

1438
01:25:47,240 --> 01:25:51,080
team that you have with Bengals.
I mean, Bengals onslaughts have 

1439
01:25:51,080 --> 01:25:54,440
got to be like one of the things
you're the most happy to see on 

1440
01:25:54,440 --> 01:25:57,400
an advancing basketball team or 
on a, you know, a team that's in

1441
01:25:57,400 --> 01:26:00,320
the playoffs right now. 
Just it's so concentrated. 

1442
01:26:00,320 --> 01:26:05,040
It's all Jamar Chase T Higgins 
and Chase Brown and and Chase 

1443
01:26:05,040 --> 01:26:07,040
Brown is active in the passing 
game too. 

1444
01:26:07,040 --> 01:26:11,040
So like you, you get like Joe 
Burrow can just go absolutely 

1445
01:26:11,040 --> 01:26:13,480
nuts at these guys. 
And you know, back on our 

1446
01:26:13,480 --> 01:26:16,120
quarterback chart, we we've 
stopped talking about Joe Burrow

1447
01:26:16,120 --> 01:26:18,480
for the last couple weeks 
because we were just talking. 

1448
01:26:18,480 --> 01:26:21,800
About it's it's not news that's 
why it's not noteworthy like 

1449
01:26:21,800 --> 01:26:25,040
there's no like stop, we're 
going to UN air that's going to 

1450
01:26:25,040 --> 01:26:27,120
change anyone's opinion on Joe 
Burrow. 

1451
01:26:28,080 --> 01:26:32,160
We were early on them but to me 
it's like when something is just

1452
01:26:32,160 --> 01:26:35,960
consensus then. 
Right there there's no reason to

1453
01:26:35,960 --> 01:26:38,600
talk about him. 
He's the best pocket passer set 

1454
01:26:38,600 --> 01:26:43,200
up for the rest of the way. 
So all right, the last guy I 

1455
01:26:43,200 --> 01:26:46,720
want to talk about on this 
chart, we, we talked about a lot

1456
01:26:46,720 --> 01:26:50,000
of Packers guys, but I want to 
talk about Romeo Dobbs. 

1457
01:26:52,160 --> 01:26:57,400
The the Packers are so spread 
out, but it does, I mean, like 

1458
01:26:59,080 --> 01:27:02,440
I, I, if you ask me, gun to my 
head, who the best receiver on 

1459
01:27:02,440 --> 01:27:06,520
the Packers is, it's Jaden Reed.
But the Packers really seem to 

1460
01:27:06,520 --> 01:27:09,120
not want to deploy him as a full
time player. 

1461
01:27:10,000 --> 01:27:12,640
They they really only want to 
use him slot only. 

1462
01:27:12,880 --> 01:27:18,000
And so because Dobbs is the one 
that's getting this 85% to 90% 

1463
01:27:18,000 --> 01:27:23,640
route share, he ends up being 
the one that I would say you 

1464
01:27:23,640 --> 01:27:26,000
could count on the most for 
fantasy. 

1465
01:27:26,000 --> 01:27:28,960
Now, it's not to say that he's 
going to be consistent. 

1466
01:27:29,600 --> 01:27:31,840
It's kind of a crapshoot with 
the Packers receivers. 

1467
01:27:32,240 --> 01:27:34,800
But he goes really late in 
playoff best ball. 

1468
01:27:34,960 --> 01:27:37,720
Like he goes after Jaden Reed a 
lot of times he's after 

1469
01:27:37,720 --> 01:27:40,680
Christian Watson. 
But I think Romeo Dobbs is kind 

1470
01:27:40,680 --> 01:27:44,160
of like the Packers receiver I 
want to make sure I have on my 

1471
01:27:44,160 --> 01:27:48,320
team. 
He was the big upset guy in in 

1472
01:27:48,320 --> 01:27:51,880
in playoff FFBC contest last 
year wasn't he? 

1473
01:27:52,360 --> 01:27:55,760
Where a lot of people liked 
Jaden Reed and then it was the 

1474
01:27:55,760 --> 01:28:00,720
Romeo Dubs show. 
Yeah, so yeah, definitely, 

1475
01:28:00,720 --> 01:28:02,800
definitely think Dubs is 
interesting here. 

1476
01:28:02,800 --> 01:28:05,720
Wanted to shout him out but we. 
And he's fine as a player. 

1477
01:28:05,720 --> 01:28:10,280
He's like, I don't think he's 
incredible or anything, but like

1478
01:28:11,920 --> 01:28:14,440
he he, he gets the job done is 
what I'd say. 

1479
01:28:15,240 --> 01:28:17,440
Right. 
A really, I mean, really the 

1480
01:28:17,440 --> 01:28:20,840
thing that's like the biggest 
limiter for him is Josh Jacobs. 

1481
01:28:20,840 --> 01:28:24,120
You need, you just need the 
Packers to be trailing and then 

1482
01:28:24,120 --> 01:28:26,640
all of a sudden, like all these 
receivers get a lot more 

1483
01:28:26,640 --> 01:28:30,120
interesting. 
You need Packers to to just be 

1484
01:28:30,120 --> 01:28:33,360
forced to stop running this 
fucking 12 personnel stuff that 

1485
01:28:33,360 --> 01:28:36,960
they're doing with these two 
tight ends for, you know, better

1486
01:28:36,960 --> 01:28:39,920
blocking for Josh Jacobs. 
Like, give me these three wide 

1487
01:28:39,920 --> 01:28:47,200
receiver sets before, goddamnit.
And then your your kind of note 

1488
01:28:47,200 --> 01:28:49,520
was that you wanted to talk 
about Mike Evans as well. 

1489
01:28:50,040 --> 01:28:53,240
Yeah, I mean, we, I mentioned 
him earlier in the context of 

1490
01:28:53,240 --> 01:28:55,800
playoff basketball where people 
just like gravitate towards him 

1491
01:28:55,800 --> 01:29:00,880
as a way to open up the Bucks. 
I mean, he he looks like he's a 

1492
01:29:00,880 --> 01:29:03,680
man on a mission to get to that 
1000 yard mark to end the 

1493
01:29:03,680 --> 01:29:06,560
season. 
Like Baker has been one of the 

1494
01:29:06,560 --> 01:29:08,800
better quarterbacks in the 
league this season. 

1495
01:29:08,800 --> 01:29:12,480
Like not just like 01 of the 
better values when he's going 

1496
01:29:12,480 --> 01:29:14,360
late. 
Like Baker looks like a 

1497
01:29:14,360 --> 01:29:16,880
legitimate bona fide good 
quarterback. 

1498
01:29:16,880 --> 01:29:19,600
Like you asked me right now, 
straight up, who would I rather 

1499
01:29:19,600 --> 01:29:22,640
have on my team both for fantasy
football and real life? 

1500
01:29:22,880 --> 01:29:25,000
Give me Baker Mayfield over 
Patrick Mahomes. 

1501
01:29:25,120 --> 01:29:28,680
Like I'm sorry if that. 
In real life. 

1502
01:29:29,080 --> 01:29:31,280
Yeah, in real life too. 
He's been playing better than 

1503
01:29:31,280 --> 01:29:35,480
him in real life, straight up. 
Like there's not a. 

1504
01:29:36,000 --> 01:29:39,560
It starts to have been better. 
Mahomes, Mahomes is less 

1505
01:29:39,560 --> 01:29:42,080
accurate. 
He's missing like the balls that

1506
01:29:42,080 --> 01:29:44,600
Mahomes keeps missing that make 
people so frustrated. 

1507
01:29:44,600 --> 01:29:48,280
He's not connecting deep. 
Like where he Mahomes just seems

1508
01:29:48,280 --> 01:29:51,640
like anytime that there's a deep
pass or anything where it's like

1509
01:29:51,640 --> 01:29:53,560
he's having to fit it in a 
window or something. 

1510
01:29:53,880 --> 01:29:58,920
He's just so there's such an 
overabundance of caution and and

1511
01:29:58,920 --> 01:30:02,680
when stuff like this happens, 
like often times there's some 

1512
01:30:02,680 --> 01:30:05,640
underlying thing that we as fans
don't know that's going on it, 

1513
01:30:05,640 --> 01:30:07,960
mate. 
Maybe Mahomes is dealing with an

1514
01:30:07,960 --> 01:30:10,360
injury that they've been 
covering up the whole season 

1515
01:30:10,360 --> 01:30:13,680
where he just really isn't 
comfortable with his ability to 

1516
01:30:13,680 --> 01:30:15,880
kind of place it in a tight 
window downfield. 

1517
01:30:16,240 --> 01:30:17,720
And so he's doing the smart 
thing. 

1518
01:30:17,720 --> 01:30:21,280
He's like, fuck, turning all 
these balls over. 

1519
01:30:21,320 --> 01:30:23,840
I'm I'm throwing it. 
So if I miss, I miss. 

1520
01:30:23,840 --> 01:30:26,240
So it's incomplete. 
I'm not missing to where it's 

1521
01:30:26,240 --> 01:30:30,040
intercepted, right. 
So I never want to like and 

1522
01:30:30,040 --> 01:30:33,000
immediately say like, oh, 
Mahomes is washed, it's over for

1523
01:30:33,000 --> 01:30:35,320
him. 
But right now with what's going 

1524
01:30:35,320 --> 01:30:39,440
on with Patrick Mahomes and the 
Chiefs, like he he is not 

1525
01:30:39,440 --> 01:30:41,000
playing as well as Baker 
Mayfield. 

1526
01:30:41,080 --> 01:30:43,520
And that's that is the truth of 
it. 

1527
01:30:44,240 --> 01:30:47,280
He certainly could turn it on in
the playoffs like I'm not. 

1528
01:30:47,280 --> 01:30:49,760
Right. 
I was going to say like that. 

1529
01:30:49,760 --> 01:30:52,560
That's a take that could like 
age like milk. 

1530
01:30:52,800 --> 01:30:55,400
Oh for sure, for sure. 
I'm not saying it's even 

1531
01:30:55,400 --> 01:31:00,160
guaranteed to continue, but if 
you made me bet on it right now,

1532
01:31:00,160 --> 01:31:03,320
like who is gonna be the 
quarterback that's better. 

1533
01:31:03,720 --> 01:31:07,040
I'm gonna take Baker Mayfield. 
He's just he's shown me more 

1534
01:31:07,040 --> 01:31:09,760
recently. 
It's a very what have you done 

1535
01:31:09,760 --> 01:31:14,680
for me lately take, But like, 
he's been good this season, 

1536
01:31:14,680 --> 01:31:15,280
right? 
Right. 

1537
01:31:17,040 --> 01:31:20,760
I, I, I probably like, picked up
on the Mahomes thing or, or got 

1538
01:31:20,760 --> 01:31:23,240
distracted by that. 
It's not a Mahomes take. 

1539
01:31:23,240 --> 01:31:25,360
It's it's, it's a Baker Mayfield
take that. 

1540
01:31:25,360 --> 01:31:26,960
He's playing really, really good
ball. 

1541
01:31:27,240 --> 01:31:29,360
Yeah, Baker Mayfield is a top. 
Controversial. 

1542
01:31:29,360 --> 01:31:31,240
Yeah. 
He's a top ten quarterback in 

1543
01:31:31,240 --> 01:31:36,960
the NFL for real life. 
And where do you think he should

1544
01:31:36,960 --> 01:31:40,520
be drafted next year? 
In probably like in the window 

1545
01:31:40,520 --> 01:31:44,400
like in that 1011 range. 
Yeah, yeah. 

1546
01:31:44,400 --> 01:31:45,360
That's fair. 
That's fair. 

1547
01:31:45,360 --> 01:31:48,760
Really like a lot of the pocket 
passers that go earlier are just

1548
01:31:48,760 --> 01:31:52,960
like overpriced cause of hype 
and we it's happened year over 

1549
01:31:52,960 --> 01:31:56,360
year, man, it's it it's like. 
Like Burrow's gonna be a fifth 

1550
01:31:56,360 --> 01:31:57,920
round pick next. 
Year Burrow will be a fifth 

1551
01:31:57,920 --> 01:32:00,680
round pick. 
Let's see who else Who else had 

1552
01:32:00,680 --> 01:32:06,040
a really fun year this year that
will be overpriced like that? 

1553
01:32:09,200 --> 01:32:12,400
Oh gosh, I'm trying to think. 
I'll, I'll pull back up the 

1554
01:32:12,600 --> 01:32:18,160
quarterbacks here and. 
Jared, Jared Goff might be like 

1555
01:32:18,160 --> 01:32:20,240
a eighth round pick or something
like. 

1556
01:32:20,520 --> 01:32:22,600
I don't I don't think he's going
off offensive. 

1557
01:32:23,160 --> 01:32:26,320
And Jayden Daniels. 
Daniels will be fifth round 

1558
01:32:26,320 --> 01:32:27,800
pick. 
No problem, yeah. 

1559
01:32:29,160 --> 01:32:32,240
And then and I think that's it. 
I think it might be a lot of 

1560
01:32:32,240 --> 01:32:34,240
cheap quarterback next year. 
Yeah. 

1561
01:32:34,240 --> 01:32:37,240
I mean, as, as it should be like
really the, the quarterback 

1562
01:32:37,240 --> 01:32:41,160
should kind of be like the, the 
way that like the market should 

1563
01:32:41,160 --> 01:32:44,880
be efficient is you get all 
these like quarterbacks kind of 

1564
01:32:44,880 --> 01:32:48,440
living in that 10th, 11th round.
And then it's like, and after 

1565
01:32:48,440 --> 01:32:53,680
them is all these really fringe 
like rookies or contingent 

1566
01:32:53,680 --> 01:32:56,960
upside bets or things like that,
where these players are so much 

1567
01:32:56,960 --> 01:32:58,800
less certain. 
They're they're probably 

1568
01:32:58,800 --> 01:33:01,040
nothing, but they could be 
something. 

1569
01:33:01,320 --> 01:33:03,520
And it's like the quarterbacks 
should kind of all live there 

1570
01:33:03,520 --> 01:33:06,040
right before them. 
And then after that, it's just 

1571
01:33:06,040 --> 01:33:09,080
like dart throw land where 
you're just like your last four 

1572
01:33:09,080 --> 01:33:11,720
or five rounds are just chucking
darts at these guys. 

1573
01:33:12,360 --> 01:33:17,240
But I I think that having 
starting quarterbacks that are 

1574
01:33:18,240 --> 01:33:21,600
like Geno Smith, even though he 
hasn't had the greatest season, 

1575
01:33:21,720 --> 01:33:25,120
you know, like he he never 
should have been going as late 

1576
01:33:25,120 --> 01:33:28,400
as he was going this year, like 
a starting pocket passer 

1577
01:33:28,400 --> 01:33:31,000
quarterback that has. 
Job security. 

1578
01:33:31,200 --> 01:33:33,840
Outs to being efficient, has job
security just. 

1579
01:33:33,840 --> 01:33:37,280
Shouldn't go with those cheap 
guys is job security then. 

1580
01:33:37,280 --> 01:33:42,080
And their team has to be OK 
'cause like the, I think the big

1581
01:33:42,080 --> 01:33:45,920
thing with, with some of these 
like cheaper guys is that if 

1582
01:33:45,920 --> 01:33:49,320
they don't, if they don't get 
benched, their team puts them in

1583
01:33:49,320 --> 01:33:51,160
really bad spots. 
So they get injured. 

1584
01:33:51,880 --> 01:33:54,080
Yeah. 
So Gardner Minshew would be the 

1585
01:33:54,080 --> 01:33:59,400
start in QB still for the Colts,
not the Colts and the Raiders if

1586
01:33:59,400 --> 01:34:02,080
he was healthy. 
But he plays for a bad team. 

1587
01:34:02,120 --> 01:34:03,600
Those, those quarterbacks get 
hurt. 

1588
01:34:04,640 --> 01:34:07,400
And so I, I, I, I do think 
that's the other thing to, to 

1589
01:34:07,400 --> 01:34:10,520
factor in. 
Yeah, yeah, that's, that's 

1590
01:34:10,560 --> 01:34:14,400
reasonable. 
The OK, the other guy we have to

1591
01:34:14,400 --> 01:34:20,040
talk about here is George 
Pickens, who I guess is on the 

1592
01:34:20,240 --> 01:34:24,200
the previous chart. 
I wanna say I probably put him 

1593
01:34:24,200 --> 01:34:26,000
out of order. 
That's my bad here. 

1594
01:34:27,080 --> 01:34:29,200
No, no, no worries. 
And. 

1595
01:34:29,280 --> 01:34:31,600
Yeah, so, so George Pickens, 
obviously he's injured. 

1596
01:34:31,600 --> 01:34:34,120
We haven't seen him play, you 
know, since he got the hamstring

1597
01:34:34,120 --> 01:34:36,720
strain. 
But we did see the Steelers play

1598
01:34:36,960 --> 01:34:41,720
and I'm I was, I was pretty hot 
on the Steelers for a while for 

1599
01:34:41,720 --> 01:34:43,400
playoff basketball. 
They just had really good 

1600
01:34:43,480 --> 01:34:45,720
probability of making the 
conference championship. 

1601
01:34:47,240 --> 01:34:52,040
I'm starting, I'm reserving the 
in my Steelers bullishness. 

1602
01:34:53,680 --> 01:34:57,680
I kind of think that they they 
may have gotten hot at the wrong

1603
01:34:57,680 --> 01:34:59,160
time. 
The Steelers got hot a little 

1604
01:34:59,160 --> 01:35:01,080
early. 
Now, granted, it could be that 

1605
01:35:01,080 --> 01:35:03,080
George Pickens is the straw that
serves to drink. 

1606
01:35:03,080 --> 01:35:05,680
You need George Pickens to 
really make things go right. 

1607
01:35:06,440 --> 01:35:09,960
But I'm I'm worried that you get
these Steelers games that we've 

1608
01:35:09,960 --> 01:35:12,720
been seeing where it's like no 
one on the Steelers scores more 

1609
01:35:12,720 --> 01:35:16,960
than 10 fantasy points. 
And so if you know, it's just 

1610
01:35:16,960 --> 01:35:20,680
not useful, like maybe even in a
win, like it's still really not 

1611
01:35:20,680 --> 01:35:22,840
useful. 
The second round of playoff 

1612
01:35:22,840 --> 01:35:25,080
basketball, you do still need 
some points. 

1613
01:35:25,080 --> 01:35:27,240
Like a lot of teams are live, 
even though some have been 

1614
01:35:27,240 --> 01:35:31,280
eliminated. 
So I'm I'm cooling a lot on the 

1615
01:35:31,280 --> 01:35:33,920
Steelers and basically taking 
the Steelers exposure I already 

1616
01:35:33,920 --> 01:35:36,480
have and saying like that's 
good. 

1617
01:35:36,480 --> 01:35:39,720
Like I'm glad I have it, but I'm
not aggressively pursuing the 

1618
01:35:39,720 --> 01:35:45,320
Steelers like I was previously. 
Now this is not a contrarian 

1619
01:35:45,320 --> 01:35:47,080
take. 
The market is letting them fall 

1620
01:35:47,080 --> 01:35:49,840
more and so I am still getting 
Steelers. 

1621
01:35:50,120 --> 01:35:53,640
I just previously I was a price 
enforcer on Steelers because 

1622
01:35:53,640 --> 01:35:56,040
they were too cheap. 
I'm just saying I'm I'm no 

1623
01:35:56,040 --> 01:35:59,480
longer price enforcing, but like
you give me seventh or eighth 

1624
01:35:59,480 --> 01:36:01,360
round George Pickens, like I'm 
going to take it. 

1625
01:36:01,880 --> 01:36:05,120
And on DraftKings, like you 
forced me into like a Pat 

1626
01:36:05,120 --> 01:36:08,840
Fryermuth thing to help me get a
tight end spot filled for week 

1627
01:36:08,840 --> 01:36:10,960
1. 
Like, you know, I'll I'll take 

1628
01:36:10,960 --> 01:36:14,840
it, but I'm really not that into
Naji. 

1629
01:36:16,400 --> 01:36:18,160
He's just he's looking worse and
worse. 

1630
01:36:18,160 --> 01:36:22,800
And the the unfortunate thing is
like Warren is not going to get 

1631
01:36:22,800 --> 01:36:26,960
enough work really to where he's
super exciting either. 

1632
01:36:26,960 --> 01:36:31,480
So it just seems like it's just 
bad juju from the Steelers. 

1633
01:36:32,000 --> 01:36:36,160
So just want to be very price 
conscious on them despite their 

1634
01:36:36,560 --> 01:36:40,160
good playoff odds that have 
gotten worse over the last week.

1635
01:36:41,880 --> 01:36:44,080
Yeah, yeah, makes sense. 
Makes sense. 

1636
01:36:44,720 --> 01:36:47,560
Playoff odds down. 
The price probably hasn't really

1637
01:36:47,560 --> 01:36:50,480
reacted to the the worsening 
playoff odds, either. 

1638
01:36:51,400 --> 01:36:54,600
They do they do slide more now. 
So they're they're probably on 

1639
01:36:54,600 --> 01:36:57,680
their way down. 
It's just AD PS are so 

1640
01:36:58,600 --> 01:37:01,600
meaningless in playoff 
basketball that it makes them 

1641
01:37:01,600 --> 01:37:03,960
update slower. 
Like because the standard 

1642
01:37:03,960 --> 01:37:06,600
deviation's so wide, you'll get 
some people to take them really 

1643
01:37:06,600 --> 01:37:08,080
early and some people take them 
really late. 

1644
01:37:08,080 --> 01:37:13,000
So you just, you end up with ADP
meaning so much less that it's, 

1645
01:37:13,000 --> 01:37:16,360
it's hard to, this is the game 
where you should rely on the 

1646
01:37:16,360 --> 01:37:20,720
market the least to kind of 
establish a value for a player. 

1647
01:37:21,360 --> 01:37:27,520
So it's it is pretty tricky. 
You do really need like some way

1648
01:37:27,520 --> 01:37:31,360
to actually assign a value to 
these players for playoff 

1649
01:37:31,360 --> 01:37:34,200
basketball. 
You cannot be using just like a 

1650
01:37:34,200 --> 01:37:36,960
oh, well, the market says 
they're about worth this and 

1651
01:37:37,240 --> 01:37:40,120
I'll like just massage it from 
there to what I think. 

1652
01:37:40,120 --> 01:37:43,840
Like if you're doing that with 
your playoff basketball ranks, 

1653
01:37:44,360 --> 01:37:49,160
or like you're using a ranking 
set that is incorporating ADP at

1654
01:37:49,160 --> 01:37:53,760
all, it's really bad. 
Like one of the worst things I 

1655
01:37:53,760 --> 01:37:56,760
could imagine doing is drafting 
off ADP for playoff. 

1656
01:37:56,760 --> 01:38:03,080
Basketball make makes makes 
sense, and that's probably 

1657
01:38:03,080 --> 01:38:07,040
mostly because you need to be 
building that your team stacks 

1658
01:38:07,040 --> 01:38:10,280
and stuff like that. 
So you you need to be playing 

1659
01:38:10,280 --> 01:38:14,560
based on on your your, your, 
your bracket rather than like, 

1660
01:38:15,760 --> 01:38:17,960
oh, this guy's a DPI can't reach
for him. 

1661
01:38:17,960 --> 01:38:21,680
Like, I can't let this this guy 
fall. 

1662
01:38:22,600 --> 01:38:25,080
Yeah, you, you, you got to, you 
got to build in your structure. 

1663
01:38:25,480 --> 01:38:28,240
Yeah, there like there are times
where I'm in the fourth round 

1664
01:38:28,480 --> 01:38:33,720
where the best picks for me all 
go, you know, 45 ADP and later, 

1665
01:38:33,840 --> 01:38:36,640
you know, they're they're all 
going to go like round seven, 

1666
01:38:36,640 --> 01:38:39,240
round 8 and later. 
And I'm in the fourth round and 

1667
01:38:39,240 --> 01:38:41,920
it's like, all right, I'm going 
to just slam all these guys that

1668
01:38:41,920 --> 01:38:45,440
go later now, because these are 
the best picks for me if I'm 

1669
01:38:45,440 --> 01:38:48,920
trying to win the tournament. 
And there there are definitely 

1670
01:38:48,920 --> 01:38:52,160
people that try to scoop ADP 
value or like don't understand 

1671
01:38:52,160 --> 01:38:56,840
that, right? 
Anyway, all right, we can, we 

1672
01:38:56,840 --> 01:39:06,320
can go to the last chart here. 
And OK, Matt, I, I didn't have 

1673
01:39:06,320 --> 01:39:08,480
any notes on this one. 
Yeah. 

1674
01:39:08,560 --> 01:39:10,400
I don't. 
I I don't, I don't I think. 

1675
01:39:10,760 --> 01:39:13,960
I've got a guy to mention though
if you don't have anyone that 

1676
01:39:13,960 --> 01:39:17,560
you want to talk about. 
And I can always talk about Troy

1677
01:39:17,560 --> 01:39:22,520
Franklin, but I don't think 
that's that's what anybody is 

1678
01:39:22,520 --> 01:39:24,920
interested in. 
No, the guy that I think is 

1679
01:39:24,920 --> 01:39:29,800
interesting is Jalen Coker. 
He just looks good, like he's a 

1680
01:39:29,800 --> 01:39:34,640
good football player. 
He might be the best receiver on

1681
01:39:34,760 --> 01:39:39,640
the Panthers. 
So there's a couple warts on the

1682
01:39:39,640 --> 01:39:42,120
frog or a family in the 
ointment, if you will. 

1683
01:39:42,440 --> 01:39:47,040
They line him up outside pretty 
exclusively, so it's going to be

1684
01:39:47,040 --> 01:39:49,360
like a higher variance type of 
play are. 

1685
01:39:51,080 --> 01:39:55,000
Are you sure? 
I'm showing last week that he 

1686
01:39:55,000 --> 01:40:02,200
had like 17 snaps in the slot. 
I think that was only when when 

1687
01:40:02,200 --> 01:40:05,760
they had. 
'Cause you got a legit injury 

1688
01:40:06,160 --> 01:40:08,440
and so I believe they moved him 
around a little bit after the 

1689
01:40:08,440 --> 01:40:09,840
legit injury. 
I wanna pull up. 

1690
01:40:09,840 --> 01:40:14,520
OK, bear with me. 
And then 20 snaps in the slot in

1691
01:40:14,520 --> 01:40:26,690
week 10. 
Yeah, so he he did, he actually 

1692
01:40:26,690 --> 01:40:29,250
did have a lot of snaps in the 
slot in week 10. 

1693
01:40:31,570 --> 01:40:33,810
I'm wondering if these are 
'cause he's not running a bunch 

1694
01:40:33,810 --> 01:40:35,810
of routes from the slot from 
what I've seen. 

1695
01:40:35,810 --> 01:40:38,050
So I'm wondering if they're 
lining him up there to block 

1696
01:40:38,050 --> 01:40:39,930
more. 
Yeah. 

1697
01:40:41,280 --> 01:40:47,200
One, one second, I'll I can pull
up the, the table. 

1698
01:40:47,200 --> 01:40:50,320
So we're talking about Coker the
the cokeheads. 

1699
01:40:53,280 --> 01:40:59,960
That's Carolina. 
So his all his passing snaps 

1700
01:40:59,960 --> 01:41:02,560
where he's running a route last 
week. 

1701
01:41:02,560 --> 01:41:14,800
So he had 31 route, 31 routes, 
36 passing snaps, so 17 in the 

1702
01:41:14,800 --> 01:41:19,840
slot, 19 out wide. 
OK, so yeah, he's he's less. 

1703
01:41:20,920 --> 01:41:23,080
He's maybe he's less targeted in
the slot. 

1704
01:41:23,160 --> 01:41:29,320
Yeah, less exclusively out wide 
than I thought, but yeah, he he 

1705
01:41:29,320 --> 01:41:32,280
is he's interesting. 
He seems seems pretty good. 

1706
01:41:32,360 --> 01:41:34,160
He had the one really explosive 
play. 

1707
01:41:34,160 --> 01:41:36,600
That's where the vast majority 
of his production came from 

1708
01:41:36,600 --> 01:41:41,080
here. 
But I I do think he's good. 

1709
01:41:43,120 --> 01:41:47,840
You also have the liget injury 
that might allow for Coker to 

1710
01:41:47,840 --> 01:41:52,080
get a little bit more. 
Right, it opens up, it opens up 

1711
01:41:52,080 --> 01:41:56,640
the the rat rate. 
Yeah, so really, I mean, you're 

1712
01:41:56,640 --> 01:42:00,760
just watching to see if this guy
can can flash a little more. 

1713
01:42:00,760 --> 01:42:04,320
I mean, the Panthers should be 
highly motivated. 

1714
01:42:04,600 --> 01:42:07,400
Oh, Steph in the chat says he 
was slot more before Thielen was

1715
01:42:07,400 --> 01:42:10,120
back. 
So he was, he was filling the 

1716
01:42:10,120 --> 01:42:13,600
Thielen role prior to Thielen 
coming back. 

1717
01:42:13,600 --> 01:42:17,280
But now that Thielen's back, I 
think he's taking more stuff out

1718
01:42:17,280 --> 01:42:17,960
wide. 
But. 

1719
01:42:18,480 --> 01:42:21,200
Well, even, yeah, even even last
week he was there. 

1720
01:42:21,600 --> 01:42:24,160
Yeah, he still was in the slot 
some last week, so. 

1721
01:42:25,720 --> 01:42:28,240
But it makes sense. 
So he's his slot rate on the 

1722
01:42:28,240 --> 01:42:33,200
year is actually 71%. 
So I bet that's more when when 

1723
01:42:33,200 --> 01:42:38,160
you had the being replacement 
for Adam Thielen, right, Whereas

1724
01:42:38,320 --> 01:42:41,200
more recently it's been kind of 
like a a mix and match. 

1725
01:42:42,200 --> 01:42:45,720
Yeah, the, I mean, as far as 
like what's actual with this 

1726
01:42:45,720 --> 01:42:48,680
Jalen Coker information? 
I mean, if, if he's somehow 

1727
01:42:48,680 --> 01:42:52,440
available on your dynasty waiver
wires, like go blow all your fab

1728
01:42:52,440 --> 01:42:54,040
on him. 
You know, if you have any left, 

1729
01:42:55,720 --> 01:43:00,040
he's the one where if you get I 
mean, he he probably also 

1730
01:43:00,040 --> 01:43:03,840
because he just had the big 
game, isn't even in a situation 

1731
01:43:03,840 --> 01:43:07,200
where he could be under the 
radar for like DFS or like B. 

1732
01:43:08,160 --> 01:43:11,000
So I don't know. 
He it's it's probably not 

1733
01:43:11,000 --> 01:43:14,240
terribly actionable. 
It would just be something where

1734
01:43:14,400 --> 01:43:20,480
I'm if you can get a spot where 
he's low owned and cheap, I'm 

1735
01:43:20,480 --> 01:43:23,760
willing to to play into it for 
DFS just cuz I think the 

1736
01:43:23,760 --> 01:43:28,080
player's good. 
Let me pull up the the Panthers 

1737
01:43:28,080 --> 01:43:29,600
schedule here to close. 
This out. 

1738
01:43:32,080 --> 01:43:35,160
Yeah, you get, oh man, yeah, you
get Cardinals and bucks. 

1739
01:43:35,160 --> 01:43:38,480
So that's, that's pretty 
interesting. 

1740
01:43:38,520 --> 01:43:41,320
I mean box. 
Week 17, so we got the Bryce 

1741
01:43:41,320 --> 01:43:45,280
Young to Jalen Coker and Vaughn 
Sacks on top. 

1742
01:43:45,400 --> 01:43:48,480
That's what I'm hearing. 
Yeah, I'm, I'm interested in it.

1743
01:43:48,480 --> 01:43:50,520
I mean, really. 
So now here's here's what I 

1744
01:43:50,520 --> 01:43:54,440
actually want. 
I want a Jalen Coker like bad 

1745
01:43:54,440 --> 01:43:58,040
bad actual fantasy production 
but good underlying metrics in 

1746
01:43:58,040 --> 01:44:01,840
week 16 so he can like stay 
under the radar so I can just 

1747
01:44:01,840 --> 01:44:04,760
jam him in week 17 for all the 
money. 

1748
01:44:05,280 --> 01:44:07,840
There we go. 
We got we have a question in the

1749
01:44:07,840 --> 01:44:10,440
chat that I think we should talk
about before we close up. 

1750
01:44:10,440 --> 01:44:12,080
But thoughts on Malik 
Washington? 

1751
01:44:12,440 --> 01:44:14,000
He's he's definitely interesting
too. 

1752
01:44:14,000 --> 01:44:16,800
He did hit a starting lineup for
one of my basketball teams this 

1753
01:44:16,800 --> 01:44:17,440
week. 
So. 

1754
01:44:18,400 --> 01:44:20,680
Yeah, not, not one that 
advanced, but yeah. 

1755
01:44:22,160 --> 01:44:26,960
Not one that advanced. 
But he did hit it. 

1756
01:44:27,520 --> 01:44:31,640
He's he's up to a 70% route rate
last week. 

1757
01:44:32,320 --> 01:44:39,000
And that's what the Jalen Waddle
injury and he had 19% targets 

1758
01:44:39,000 --> 01:44:46,320
per run, so 6 targets 52 yards. 
And so like that, that's 

1759
01:44:46,320 --> 01:44:50,000
actually pretty, pretty solid 
usage. 

1760
01:44:50,040 --> 01:44:54,920
I I think you do like 100% need 
Joe and Waddle to be out for him

1761
01:44:54,920 --> 01:44:59,280
to be playable. 
Like the Dolphins, they got 

1762
01:44:59,280 --> 01:45:04,120
flexed out of prime time. 
So no, no shadow showdown slate 

1763
01:45:04,880 --> 01:45:09,680
and slates for them. 
And he's before the injury. 

1764
01:45:09,680 --> 01:45:13,760
He's like a 40% red guy. 
And like, that's kind of like 

1765
01:45:14,240 --> 01:45:16,440
those are the kind of guys you 
need to be playing a showdown 

1766
01:45:16,440 --> 01:45:20,920
rather than in, in, in utter 
formats of, of football. 

1767
01:45:21,280 --> 01:45:23,560
So you you need the job model 
intrigue to play him. 

1768
01:45:23,560 --> 01:45:25,840
But he's a fun guy. 
He's a fun player. 

1769
01:45:25,840 --> 01:45:27,920
He's explosive. 
He makes guys miss. 

1770
01:45:28,200 --> 01:45:34,440
He makes big plays. 
Yeah, he for me, like his 

1771
01:45:34,440 --> 01:45:37,520
usefulness, is going to rely on 
the Waddle injury. 

1772
01:45:37,520 --> 01:45:40,160
If Waddle's inactive, I'm, I'm 
like at least a little 

1773
01:45:40,160 --> 01:45:41,960
interested. 
You probably can't really play 

1774
01:45:41,960 --> 01:45:46,360
him in DFS just because the 
Dolphins, you know, so much of 

1775
01:45:46,360 --> 01:45:48,480
it's going to go to Jonnu and a 
Chan. 

1776
01:45:50,760 --> 01:45:53,480
I mean, maybe. 
Maybe if he's like the Stoneman.

1777
01:45:54,080 --> 01:45:59,120
Right, you can I think you can 
play mid min price if if if 

1778
01:45:59,120 --> 01:46:03,680
waddles out because 70% nineteen
percent target spread run like 

1779
01:46:04,640 --> 01:46:07,240
if you're getting 6 targets for 
60 yards and you catch a 

1780
01:46:07,240 --> 01:46:11,760
touchdown like for cheap right 
receiver. 

1781
01:46:11,760 --> 01:46:12,960
That's pretty. 
That's pretty good. 

1782
01:46:14,720 --> 01:46:20,000
Yeah, All right. 
I think that'll do it for today.

1783
01:46:21,400 --> 01:46:23,560
So thank you to everyone for 
tuning in. 

1784
01:46:23,600 --> 01:46:27,440
We're we're almost at the very 
end of of the season here. 

1785
01:46:27,880 --> 01:46:32,200
I think for our schedule, I 
don't believe we will be doing a

1786
01:46:32,200 --> 01:46:36,240
show next week because that does
fall on Christmas Eve. 

1787
01:46:36,920 --> 01:46:39,320
Think we'll be spending time 
with our families? 

1788
01:46:39,320 --> 01:46:42,840
Yeah. 
And then the following, the week

1789
01:46:42,840 --> 01:46:47,280
after that is New Year's Eve, 
which we'll have to have to talk

1790
01:46:47,280 --> 01:46:52,120
about that one that is week 17. 
I mean, maybe we we'll have to 

1791
01:46:52,120 --> 01:46:56,800
we'll figure something out maybe
instead of I mean, I don't even 

1792
01:46:56,800 --> 01:47:00,440
know how much actual stuff we're
going to have in a week, right? 

1793
01:47:00,680 --> 01:47:04,480
So we might just do like a recap
show at the end of the week or 

1794
01:47:04,480 --> 01:47:08,320
something instead. 
Our regular scheduled 

1795
01:47:08,320 --> 01:47:11,600
programming will be disrupted 
for the next two weeks, but 

1796
01:47:11,600 --> 01:47:14,280
we'll, we'll have news in the 
Discord. 

1797
01:47:14,880 --> 01:47:17,400
I'm sure we'll probably, you 
know, Pete will put something 

1798
01:47:17,400 --> 01:47:20,480
out on Twitter just letting 
people know what to expect. 

1799
01:47:21,120 --> 01:47:25,480
But in case we don't see you for
a little while, we really 

1800
01:47:25,480 --> 01:47:28,200
appreciate you listening. 
This whole season. 

1801
01:47:28,880 --> 01:47:32,360
We hope that we were helpful for
you and that you found some 

1802
01:47:32,360 --> 01:47:36,240
actual stuff and you found some 
success in whatever fantasy 

1803
01:47:36,240 --> 01:47:39,600
formats you were playing. 
And if you didn't, we hope that 

1804
01:47:39,600 --> 01:47:43,880
you at least had fun. 
But thanks again for listening, 

1805
01:47:44,040 --> 01:47:46,240
and we'll see you when we see 
you. 

1806
01:47:46,720 --> 01:47:49,640
Yeah, Thanks for thanks for 
listening all year, everyone. 

1807
01:47:50,240 --> 01:47:53,720
See you, everybody. 
See everybody?