Hello everyone, and welcome to a special Week 2 edition of In
season ADP Chasing. We got another week of data
under our belts. We'll break it all down here.
Talk about the players were panicking on the players were
victory lapping and the players were bag defending.
Let's do it. ADP chasing is for when you
watch ship chasing you go these guys are just football guys.
And the targets for outrun leagues, that's going to be
really nice. Actually back in if it's Asha
neck. It's here to our crystal ball.
close your eyes. You know all your entries are
going to lose anyway. Yeah.
That's fair. This is a Dusvan show.
It's. Anti cabal.
It's anti the best ball thought leader.
I'm obviously lying to some degree because like, I have a
lot of both of these guys. It's the most disgusting.
Thing you can make but man everyone and welcome to Week 2
of in season ADP chasing. Joined today as always by Pat
and Davis. Fellas, how are we doing today
after Week 2? Doing good.
How are you doing? You're doing good.
New background today. Yeah, I guess.
Yeah. I did this recorded premiere for
the Shift cast, but yeah this is going to be where I'm recorded
from more often than not instead of the shed once.
Once people are accusing me of getting kidnapped, I figured it
was time to to stream from a different location.
His his new bit is he's going to stream from a different room in
his house every time. Every time they do the, every
time they do the shift cast, he's going to be in a different
room. Yeah, I think I kind of one up
to you on that bit this offseason from recording from a
different house every single show this over the offseason,
but a different room each time. That also works.
Might want to mix in some some China in the.
Background I am working on getting some Revolutionary War
Air China by me. Yeah, no, I could.
I have some good some good websites for you to check out.
Let me know. Anyways, we'll dive right into
it. You know, as we talked about
last week, these in in season shows are going to be tight.
One hour shows, no time for chit chat.
We're going to go right into what we'll be doing every week,
at least for the next couple weeks, going over one player
that were victory lapping, one player we're bag defending and
one player we are pressing the panic button on.
We'll have one of each of these for each of us.
So starting with last week, I think, you know, across the
board we had some pretty good calls that the Bears wide
receivers that came to fruition again last night that that
situation did not look good. Pat and Davis were on that one.
JK Dobbins again, if I'm patting myself in the back, that looked
really good. Devon a chain Davis had that
call victory lapping that, that looked really good.
But yeah, just just look at this quickly.
I'll give it to you first. Davis, anything on your takes
from last week you wanted to to quickly hit on anything you
maybe changed your mind on 1st last week?
I mean, just just as down on the bears, just as high on a chain.
I, I actually don't think the quarterback switch will matter
that much for him. Obviously it'll he'll Ding his
range of outcomes a little bit, but compared to what's going to
happen to Tyreke and Waddle, nothing, nothing in in the same
vicinity. I would just say on Chase Brown,
he's definitely A0 right now. Like he is not startable in any
spot at all. But Zach Moss is a bad player.
They gave Zach Moss another goal line attempt.
He tried to get around. He he looked like an offensive
lineman trying to get around the edge on that on that goal line
play really bad. But I mean, yes, that is exact.
That's bag defending. That is the literal that.
Is that's the literal definition of bag defending?
The literal definition of bag defending is my guy stinks, but
the other guy might be worse. Yeah, especially because he he
actually hasn't been bad at the thing he's kind of on the field
for, which is consistency. Well, pass pro inconsistency.
He he's you know, his success rate is, is 42% parental next
Gen. which includes last week. And that's good.
You know, it's not like amazing, but it's it's why he's out
there. So I think he would because
that's what you're if you're the Bengals, what you're kind of
giving up going from Brown to Chase is like reliability.
And so if Moss would have fall down in that of respect, then
you're like, well, then why don't we have the most the more
explosive running back on the field this guy's.
Being, well, you, you did see again, this is the literal
definition of bag defending. But who is the running back who
was on the field in their final drive when they needed to score?
It was Brown and he got two consecutive first downs running
the ball. Again, this is literally bag
defending. My preseason take was wrong, but
the Bengals do know that Brown is the quote UN quote more
talented player. But that is not what they are.
That's not really what they're interested in for 70.
I think that's. Exactly right, yeah.
I think you also have to the the interior running.
I agree that like if we're using talent as a term to encompass
like everything, I would agree with you that Brown is the more
talented runner. I do think like on interior
runs, there's some reps where Chase Brown does not look good.
He's runs. Into the ass of his lineman.
Yeah, he runs from the acids lineman.
I don't think he has like great power on the interior.
Get him in space and he's a fun player.
But I I do think there's going to be some things, even though
Moss is not a fun player, there's some things he's just
better at than Chase Brown. But again, if I if I'm going to
take the bag defending point of view on Brown, there's only two
running backs in Cincinnati that they trust it all.
There's no, you know, Chris Evans is on IR Trayvion Williams
isn't getting any snaps. There's no like third guy out
there that I can even think of that could mix in.
So with an injury to Moss, we're still looking at a pretty big
role for Chase Brown, even though he does have weaknesses.
So where do you draft him for a lot of the summer?
Pick 120? If he is this kind of like a
contingent, that's not that bad. Not that bad you regret.
Maybe some of the shares in the 90s, you know.
Yeah, yeah, that's where I'm at. I do.
I do regret doing that. Yeah, I mean, and it's easy to
imagine him having a huge game if Moss or a missed time.
So from that perspective, I think it's a pretty strong bag
defend. Like he's, he definitely has
that upside in a way where you're like, if Moss just feels
like he's going to do this all season, you know, it's like
regardless of what happens with Brown.
Anyways, we're we're a forward-looking show.
So let's let's move on to next week.
Just so just so everyone in the audience, maybe you're you're
new to in season ADP chasing. Just to be clear on these
definitions, I'll go through it again.
Victory lapping is a player we're moving up way higher in
our rest of season rankings after this past week's
performance or, you know, maybe past two weeks performance bag
defending is a guy that maybe the market is panicking on.
His prices may be down in some of the in season basketball
contest, but you think his position is largely unchanged.
And then panic button is a guy that we think should be moving
way down basis, you know, compared to where we drafted in
the summer and so on. So those are the definitions.
They can correspond to our takes from the offseason.
I think they usually will. But we're also talking big
picture here. It's OK to say do a victory lap
for a guy you weren't in on if they just look a lot better.
We're not solely constrained to our own personal takes.
So with that said, I think I'll give it to Pat this week for his
first victory lap player. Very nervous he's going to steal
the guy who I want to talk about here.
But Pat, who is your number one victory lap player after Week 2?
James Cook, This is a guy I actually was in on, but I never
was in on him as much as like I wanted to be like there's, you
know, with me and running backs, I got to get really excited in
the early rounds. And at that point, you know,
I'll I'll have a huge bag. But if I'm not, then it's easy
to go, Oh, I'd like to take savior worthy here or Rishi Rice
isn't going to be in the 5th much longer or, you know,
whatever other receiver I've decided I need to grab or the
elite tight ends. We're going in a similar range.
Some of the quarterbacks were going there.
So there was lots of distracting things in the in round 5.
They kept me from going like really, really heavy on Cook.
But I did end up overweight and was a guy.
I mean, part of the reason I was really comfortable fading ETN
and Jacobs and Pacheco and you know, some of these other
running backs like Henry was that I was like, I can just get
James Cook in the 5th and he's like a better bet than these
guys was, you know, honestly, I was going to do truth serum
take, you know, for Pete's video on James Cook, but Daniel Raz
just did a way better version of my take.
And so I had to pivot. But but he was a guy was like
what I think I believe I said on ADP chasing early on, like I
like him more than Pacheco. And you know, I liked him more
than ETN. But like his, the reason that
people weren't really buying into that, which I understand is
that you like, he's not going to score the touchdowns, you know,
and what if he? Does.
Yeah, that's the big thing. And and in that sense, it was
just a really clean bet. It was similar to Eckler a few
years ago where it's like he's not going to score the
touchdown, so he can't he can't be like a first round value.
But then he did score the touchdowns and.
One of the biggest things in fantasy, when guys who don't
score touchdowns all of a sudden start scoring them and they're
getting the touches they did before, it just, it changes the
whole thing. It changes the whole thing and
and he's really explosive. He's versatile.
He's everything we're looking for in a running back because
you know, he's also on the bills and all of a sudden the bills
are are all about running the ball.
You know, they're they're way less passive than they used to
be. So, you know, I don't know that
he's going to be I don't think this is like a clean a hit as we
got with Eckler that year where he was like all the sudden their
goal line back, like I think Ray Davis over time will steal
touchdowns. We saw in week one that Josh
Allen will steal touchdowns, but Cook went from a guy who had
basically no touchdown equity, like 2 touchdowns last year to
now having legitimate touchdown equity.
He's like a normal running back, and so we would just take him
much earlier. I think he would have gone like
in that third round range, maybe early third round range if we
knew what we know now. Yeah, IA 100% back this take and
yeah, I ended up with 14% James Cook on the dog pretty happy
with again on DraftKings. I actually don't know how to
check my DraftKings exposures anymore.
They. They took it away.
You can't.
You can't right now. This is actually this is great
cope for me because that way I can just make up the exposure
exposure. Yeah, you just tell yourself
whatever it is. But but underdog, I do confirm
to have 13.6% of James Cook very very happy with that and my
thesis which which hasn't even completely come true I guess.
I guess it has in some ways, but I think we were kind of tripping
over ourselves this offseason to figure out who is the pass
catcher in Buffalo that is going to take the big leap.
You know, people were chasing Keon Coleman way up the board.
I understand why people were chasing Kincaid way up the
board. I understand why I fell for the
Curtis Samuel trap a little bit. Julio Shakur, he went, you know,
in the early hundreds after not doing much through two years in
his career. So we're trying to figure out
the situation. And I thought the most logical
answer was just that James Cook is in some ways the centerpiece
of the offense alongside Josh Allen.
Again, it wasn't the cleanest bet.
Like you had to squint to see the touchdown upside based on
what he's done in the first two years in his career.
You had to do more than squint. It was a, it was an open your
third eye sort of situation. It was an open your third eye,
but I did. I did have the Eckler.
I don't know if I made the comparison on the show or
anywhere, but I did have the Eckler thing in the back of my
mind. It's that like everything is
there. He was a guy who had what, 1600
yards from scrimmage the prior year?
He's a good receiver. He's an explosive player, like
all we need is just the touchdown variance to go our way
and he's on a good offense. So like there's upside if it
does go our way. So he he was a guy I was pretty
heavily and on. I'm really, really happy about
that. 100% agree with Pat's take.
Davis, I guess putting you on the spot a little bit with James
Cook, like Ruff, if you were like redrafting today, like
where do you think Cook goes roughly?
I know you don't like fully have that mapped out now, but like
like. Two like 2-3, like 2-3 turn I
think. I think he's still like right
behind a chain. I feel is kind of the right,
right right behind where a chain was.
Going a chain was going, yeah. Yeah, if we redrafted today, a
chain would be a first round pick.
I think it's tough to whenever I say stuff, I just assume
everyone else. We don't know how.
We don't have any more information about.
Exactly, Yeah. Because otherwise it's like, I
don't know, it just gets so complicated.
Then it becomes a a sliding a sliding glass doors thing of
like, well we just have to do a show re ranking the entire
field. Exactly.
Yeah, exactly. It's it's a tough thing to do
unless you actually go out and try to do it.
All right, moving on, Davis, who is your victory lap player after
two weeks of NFL football? Well, sadly, you got to be the
biggest Nico Collins bowl on the show, despite the fact that I
had 20% of him. So you kind of stole that for
me. So I will.
I will then go with the guy who should have been going
one-on-one the whole time, Justin Jefferson.
Respectfully, he's not Garrett Wilson.
That was from the seas, derogatory from Justin.
Jefferson that was from the seas, Very.
Derogatory. Yeah.
Respectfully, respectfully, Garrett Wilson, you are not you.
Need to steal that. We need some respect please.
Yeah. I think I think the something we
are going to look back on, assuming that this quad injury
is not a big deal is we drafted a 29 year old running back, a 30
year old wide receiver, a wide receiver holding out, you know,
Bijan Robinson recent we drafted all these guys this.
Has the case to be the one-on-one in in?
The one-on-one on his I was. Going to say Braylon Allen now.
Is this from Braylon Allen? Davis is above, yeah.
Watching, watching Braylon Allen score a screen pass touchdown,
my I was like, I was like Davis. And March was the sharpest
drafter in fantasy with March. With Braylon.
Yeah, Justin Jefferson, he's he's the best wide receiver in
the NFL. The idea that KOC was gonna be
able to look at Sam Darnold and go good enough for me.
Why not? Yeah, I I can work.
I can work with this. That's exactly what happened.
The the JJ, the JJ McCarthy thing.
Watching Caleb Williams Bow Nix and and all these other rosy
quarterbacks Might be a win, might be a win.
Yeah, might be a win. That that that JJ McCarthy is
not available. So yeah, I think Justin
Jefferson the rightful one-on-one.
Yeah, I. Don't see how it's not a win.
I mean, like McCarthy's not making that that deep bomb throw
like. Darnold.
No, no, no. Darnold does stuff that loses
NFL teams games and everything, but he is willing to take
chances and they were. They're willing to throw the
ball more than I assume they would be with a rookie
quarterback. Like you can't let a rookie
quarterback embarrass. Beat the beat the 49ers as a 5
point home dog. Yeah, that's, that's no joke.
That's, I mean, Davis, I, I, I think you deserve full credit
for this take. I, I was not like fully
Jefferson pilled like you were. I wasn't one of those people
that was fading him. I think I was right at market,
like I was just taking him where the market told me to take him.
That that was clearly a little bit wrong.
I probably should have been doing what you were doing.
But yeah, assuming this thigh injury is nothing, I don't
understand how you can't have Jefferson in the the top 3 or 4,
maybe maybe even as early as one O 1.
I'd have to think about that further.
But so many people in front of them have failed or things have
not gone their way. You know, the CMC injury Tyreke
loses to so on and so on. I think Jefferson has a clear
case to be one O 1 like you're saying all offseason.
Pat, any, any closing thoughts on Jefferson?
I did. Towards the very end, with Davis
Sky in the back of my head, I did.
I did go more Jefferson. I I thought the with, you know,
before everyone panicked on Chase, I would sometimes break
ties to Jefferson over Chase. So I got up to 10% one underdog,
which which feels good. But yeah, you are all over this
one. Davis, He looks, he's the best
Rider receiver in the league and his quarterback play is.
Don't don't give me too much credit man, there are a lot of
LS that are are just. Going to take well, it feels.
Good to get. It feels good to get a first
round stance right. Like if Mar Chase was just going
nuts and Justin Jefferson had six catches through two games,
I'd be like, well, I'm definitely not making money in
basketball this year. Like making money in basketball
this year. So getting a first round stance
right does feel. Pretty, yeah.
The only like the slightest, you know, devil's advocate thing I
would say is like we have seen this with Darnold before where
he looks good and. It.
All comes apart. So just I'm just keeping that in
mind. I I think I think it's pretty
legit. I really like KOC is a play
caller in Minnesota. So I'm not saying this Darnold
stuff is a fluke, but just keep that in mind.
Maybe if you can get an insane trade package for Jefferson one
of your leagues like you get, I don't know, Chase plus James.
I I think tyree. Is.
No, Tyreek is the one you could do in your 12 team home league.
You could get you could get Tyreek and Kenneth Walker like
right now or something like that, I think.
And and Charbonnay played really bad so.
Yeah, but I'd be wanting to sell very high at on Chase.
I'm definitely not saying he's he's a sell only if you can get
tons of value. All right, my my victory lap, I
was I was worried. So I had a backup option
prepared. But I'm I'm going with the guy
who I wanted here, Brock Bowers. He was like an absolute smash
where he was going. You know, DraftKings around pick
100 underdog. I think around pick pick 90
something in there. Here's where Brock Bowers is at
through two games of his NFL career and PPR points per game.
He's the tight end too. Targets per route run.
He's the tight end four and insane 27% targets per route
run. That would have been very close
to leading the league last year, if not number one, probably in
the top three. And then here's the kicker.
He's tightened 20 in route participation in the same range
of guys like Greg Dulcich and Johnny Munt.
So some people might see that as a bad thing.
I see that as a massive upside case for Brock Powers.
What's it? What is this route
participation? He's for the tight end, 20 in
route participation. I believe he's at like 70%, like
68%, something like that, low 70s.
Mayer Mayer played a ton. I I don't know, I don't know
why, but Mayer played a ton more in this game than he did in
week. One, yeah.
And I'm not saying that Bowers is ever going to be like 100%
that that's really rare at tight end by the.
Way Titans tend to peak around 85, but they're.
I mean, if he's in the low 70s, that's meaningful to jump
another 15, yeah. So there's there's room to grow
on the route participation for sure.
And he just looks really good to me.
I think it's it's pretty rare tight ends that can go out and
man coverage and beat corners and safeties on in breaking
routes out breaking routes. He can kind of do it all.
Like when you watch him, he he doesn't look like the world's
most athletic Titan. Like, he doesn't look like
Gronk, one of these absolute athletic freaks out there, but
he's just so reliable. He just gets open.
Yeah, he just gets open, really technical route runner.
He's good after the catch. Again, not like world beating
levels of speed or athleticism, but he's just really good at the
game. And yeah, I think if I was
redrafting today, I would have Bowers in my top three of Titan.
Like I'd have McBride over him who was the second tight end of
have over Bowers Right now I'm not even sure I can confident
list list a second one like he he's up there in the top three
for me. So I feel really good about I
had I think 22% exposure on DraftKings, 16% on underdog.
I'm really happy with the Brock Bowers bags.
Damn not you don't even have a 2IN front of your Bowers
exposure bro. Do you know Ball?
I do, I do on DraftKings. Not an underdog.
It took me a while. I had to get bullied by.
Jason Sam's best ball team. Yeah, Jacob Sanderson, thank you
for bullying me on Brock Bowers. He bullied me in the right
direction, got me there. Yeah, I I was only at 12%.
I didn't didn't go nuts. But it could have been like a
fade situation, which obviously just be disastrous.
He he's I mean, it wasn't that hard of a sell.
Like he is one of the best tight end prospects of all time.
I was never that worried about the athletic testing.
This dude led the LED like all of college football and Yak for
three straight years and then came out as a, you know, before
his true senior season. That seems really good, you
know, and then went very high and really would have gone
higher in a different era where teams were worrying less about,
you know, the positional value of a tight end.
Like if this was like 2003, he's like the one O 2, you know, he
goes ahead of Daniels or something.
I'm saying, yeah, he was seen as, you know, like the the best
player in the draft of, you know, positions aside outside of
Caleb Williams probably. So, you know, I I guess then
when like it's like, oh, well, he might not be that athletic.
Like, I mean, odds are he's athletic enough given what he
did and given how excited people were about his tape.
So, yeah, I just thought I thought that situation would be
would be tough. And so I got nervous about it
early on in the, you know, basketball mania season May and
stuff. But but Jacob always had it
right. It's like this guy, the the
profile we're getting access to here too at this price is just
really unheard. Of it's it's total, it's total
zoom out on the chart. Stuff like Gretch is really good
at writing about this stuff and ceiling signals.
It's like just take players who are insanely good and the kind
of the rest of it will will take care of itself.
And that's totally what's happening with Bowers.
Yeah, yeah, I, I think, you know, victory lapping for like
not being that concerned about like exactly how all of these
situations are going to break out.
Like, like how is Bowers possibly going to get there?
Like, I don't know, man. He will though.
Like he will. I don't know how exactly but he
will because he's like the best tight end.
Because he's the ghost, yeah. Yeah.
So yeah.
And I think like an insightful process that I came to this
summer is like my initial gut reaction to the Bowers thing,
which I backed off of completely was, you know, Devonte Adams is
there, Jacoby Meyers is there. They're going to, you know, the
target chair, Michael Mayer is there.
He's going to steal some routes from Bowers.
It's a bad quarterback. Like it's just a bad situation.
And but but you have to think about like, if if you're that
precise in how a situation is going to play out, you're
missing the outcome where the Raiders offense to me like looks
pretty good. Like it looks actually, it's
actually good that Devante Adams is out there on the outside.
So teams can't put all their attention on Brock Bowers.
Like what you're going to, you're going to double cover
Bowers and leave Devante Adams outside in single man coverage.
Like you're going to get smoked. You got Trey Tucker out there.
Like he's a fun vertical slot player.
He's the guy that threatens the defense.
Like they have some actually kind of fun pass catchers in my
opinion, and I think that actually helps the offense.
Soundtrack. And helps Bowers.
Zoom in on the chart even more. Every offense sucks.
This is the lowest passing touchdown, lowest YPA, lowest A
dot that's ever been around in the NFL like we're at like I
think like 15 year lows there. What was it?
66 passing touchdowns is the all time record for lowest passing
touchdowns in a week. And last week was the lowest
scoring week in the NFL in a decade.
And unless the game tonight goes for 147 points, this week too is
going to be even worse. It's going to be even lower
scoring. So if that's true, then being a
20% target share guy on the 17th best offense is fine because
like every offense kind of stinks.
Yeah. And not sorry.
Go ahead, Crane. You had something there.
No, I just, I just agreed. I just agreed with the things
and stuff, yeah. Yeah, the only tiny thing to add
to that for Davis is I actually don't have the the Week 2
numbers in front of me, but the Raiders were like a top five
team in pass rate over expected in the Week 1.
I think they're actually kind of like giving up on this Zamir
White thing pretty quickly. They're using Bowers and Devonte
Adams RPO's as like an extension of the run game like that that
PPR floor from just like the scammy like screens to Bowers
like that's huge in fantasy if that's his floor.
So yeah, he's just a guy. I don't know.
Is it a hot take to say top three tight end rest of season?
Like no, because. That's from I think.
I think I'd only take, I'd only do McBride over him right now.
Yeah, I think same for me. Yeah, I don't, I don't think
it's a hot take. I mean, we we were deciding
between Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Brock Bowers in a tight end
premium and. Even started Bowers.
We didn't start Bowers. We're like Alex, just.
Gonna have a good game tonight. Yeah, let's start the Falcons
guys. And and then we were just like,
Pete just messed like Bowers is locked into the lineup.
Like we're never seeing Bowers. Yeah, he's locked, dude.
So right there. I mean, you know, was Pitts
locked in the lineup? Maybe not, you know, so he's
he's I don't think it's a hot take at all to say he's top
three tight end. Now.
One of the things you said about Adams just had me thinking like
it is I think when we it's fantasy analyst and stuff, you,
you, you think about target share and all that and we divide
up the target pie and is there enough targets to go around?
And someone was like in the chat was like, wait, why did you
think it was a bad situation? It really came down to like
that, like the targets, like how many targets are we getting to
run first offense? Not very high quality targets
and they're split up between Adams and Myers and you know,
mayor's going to run routes and all that.
But there's just such a big difference between a guy like
Devonte Adams who's going to earn his targets, but also like
make the defense pay for not covering him compared to like
Deonte Johnson or something. Like there's there's target
eaters, right? And there's target earners and
Devonte Adams being a target earner actually makes the
offense a lot better. So I think that's like one thing
I want to think about more, you know, next year, like if you're
next to a guy who's so good that he's going to get targets even
if he's double covered, like if you're next to Justin Jefferson,
right? And you, you know, obviously we
saw with TJ Hawkinson, like TJ Hawkinson can eat next to Justin
Jefferson because Jefferson's just really, really good for an
FL offense. Not every guy who earns targets
is because sometimes they're just scooping up underneath
volume and stuff like that. Yeah, like Cooper Cup is
extremely inefficient and bad for NFL offenses, but just gets
a lot of targets. All right, moving on here to I
had I had to get a dig in you. You guys made me feel so much
pain last week. I was literally having Cooper
Cup nightmares last week. So I I had I had to get a little
something in there. Let's move on here to bag
defending. Davis, who's a player you're bag
defending this week again. What do you mean bag defending?
Not as just like the actual real definition of bag defending, but
someone you actually think the market shouldn't be panicking
on. Give it to you, Davis.
Well buddy, the Chad is going to hate this one.
They are going to be retching and vomiting and saying how
stupid I am. But I'm really not worried about
Travis Kelsey. The routes are fine.
He had a he had a 41 yard gain called back by a pretty ticky
back holding. Back.
And I was going to say he that literally was classic Kelsey
like finds the. Soft.
Spot finds the soft spot in the zone, pretends he's going to
lateral it to Rashi. Like, yeah, he's doing this, I
mean. And the Chiefs, I will say this,
this would be more of the the panic button and I'm not going
to do this as my panic button. But I will say, you know, the
Chiefs just do not care right now.
They were down a touchdown at home to their biggest rivals and
they they were just like lollygagging.
They were, they were just like they're on the sideline just
like chatting, you know, just like, you know, whatever, we'll
win this game, we'll get we'll get one good foul call and we'll
win. It's exactly, it's exactly what
happened, you know, but Kelsey is going to score 9 touchdowns.
I, I think the thing that will be different is he probably is
not going to have any like 10 catch games anymore.
That is probably over that. That's Rashi's role now.
But it's definitely not going to surprise me if it we get we get
to the end of the season and Kelsey has the two highest
individual scoring games of any tight end because the chiefs
just decided they needed him in two weeks or they just decided
to try. And, and I mean the, the
Pacheco, the Pacheco injury as well.
Like they're they're already the number one team in the NFL in
pass rate over expectation. I'm going to guess they tilt
that way even more. So I personally, I am bag
defending Kelsey. I, I am not, I'm not super,
super panicked about him. Crane, what are what are your
thoughts on on Kelsey? You think Davis is right here?
I hope so we'll have a bunch of Travis Kelsey.
So but I mean, I agree with the that, you know that that play
gets called back. He also he had that play where
he gets stopped at the at the goal line.
So yeah, he almost scored. He almost scored.
And I do think it's probably good think.
And I wrote this up in the walkthrough last week and it
didn't work out this week, but there's a lot of their offense
is still driven by the exact type of target that Kelsey
feasts on this, this underneath kind of Rashi Rice target.
And right now those are going to Rice.
But it doesn't necessarily mean that that's always going to be
the case. And we know that they have a
great connection, Mahomes and Kelsey.
So I could I could see him racking up targets.
I think it's probably going to be a little bit more about like
what the what does the defense prefer to?
Take away that's they also started out the year Ravens,
Bengals like probably like two of their biggest regular season
games that they are that they're going to play like tight good
defenses, defenses that have historically done well against
them. Yeah, I just like if we're, if
we're doing this, if we're doing this in a month or if we're
doing this after, after four weeks, you know, and it's like
they they keep getting, you know, Mahomes is throwing 28
passes and backup tackles or scoring, then sure, I I will, I
will evaluate. But nothing that I've seen
through two weeks has been like, well, Kelsey can't score points.
It would be impossible for Kelsey to score points in this
offense. Yeah, I mean, like from a, you
know, if we zoom out on the chart like does Patrick Mahomes
so it'll look, you know, really good.
Does this offense look like one we want to be invested in?
Does it look like it's going to be a lot better than last year?
They I mean, they just lost the running back.
Like the the Hollywood Brown is going to be out for a long time.
Like it's actually the the underlying situation is actually
quite a bit more bullish for Kelsey than it was when we.
Were drafted. Do you like Pat's new bit of
throwing one of the worst interceptions you've ever seen
once a week just like kind of as a way to keep things fresh?
It's like his his new bit is just throw the worst
interception you can possibly imagine.
It's the one field equivalent of drafting CEH just to prove that
he has the the pull with the. Front office.
It's like when Larry Bird used to randomly try and score left
only left-handed for a game. Like just let me let me just
basically throw a lateral to a linebacker and just see what
happens. Yeah.
I, I, yeah, I, I think I, I'm probably a little biased because
I didn't have as much Kelsey as you guys.
I think you guys make good points.
I think like Kelsey has to come down in the tight end rankings
versus where he is to start the season, but he's definitely not
a full blown panic. He could still be.
We're only 1/2 hour in. We have time.
We can do this. McBride 1.
Bowers 2. Laporta or Kelsey.
I I got Kelsey. Yeah, I got Kelsey.
I go laporta for for the age model stuff but.
Jamo breaking out is a disaster for Laporta.
I got, I got some laporta for laporta.
I got some laporta takes later so.
OK, OK, OK. Let's not step all over me, but
I I don't think it's, I certainly think it's the same
tier, Kelsey and Laporta. But yeah, that that's yeah,
that's a reasonable point. I don't know.
I don't know anything else was. Saying Kelsey, I mean, honestly,
like he he might have had, he could have easily had what it
still would have been like 2 for 46 and a touchdown like that.
You know, I'm giving him both plays there, but like he's got 2
for 46 and a touchdown. We're like, that sucks, but like
we survived. 46 and a touchdown. That's tight end one of any.
Yeah, we're into it. Yeah, we're into that.
So I don't know. I mean, it's just like to me,
it's a zoom out situation. It's been it's been a
frustrating and I mean, if you were making the case, which I
kind of was that like, look, it's he Kelsey still Kelsey and
the offense is going to rebound. So like this is going to be this
is going to be pretty sweet to get him at the 3-4 turn or the
mid 4th. Sometimes that bowl case is
looking much, much weaker, but he was still going very cheaply
for, you know. Yeah, it wasn't.
It's not like he was going to. Push down like last year yeah,
yeah, yeah yeah exactly. So I still think like the the
bear case on him was like very confident, like Kelsey's not who
he was. He's going to get rested at the
end of the season, you know, and so far the bear case is working
out great. But I, I still think that at the
price he was going at, he could still hit pretty, pretty big.
Yeah, not as big as I was hoping, hoping, but still, you
know, so. The one thing I'll say is that,
like to me, Kelsey does look kind of slow out there, but he
also kind of looks slow out there to me.
Always. Yes, he's.
Weird, when did Kelsey? Ever look faster when?
Did Kelsey look faster? No, he he definitely looks
different than how he looked in his prime.
I think it's it's burning your head in his hand to not believe
that. Yeah, but that's part of the
thesis of not ranking him as high, right?
I'm just saying that like Kelsey looks older to me, but he still
has these plays where it's scramble drill, he gets open, he
makes. Defenders he he's the most elite
like head faker of all time that it gets the defender every time
on the scramble drill. There's defenders that he has no
business like juking out of their shoes and he and he still
does it even though he's he's slow and doesn't look that fast.
So I'm not I'm definitely not walking on Kelsey's Kelsey's
grave here. I think they'll be big games
before we get the next thing I you know we never self promote
on the show almost to a fault. They want to say 600 people
watching. Let's get get the likes numbers
up here guys. I'll move on to my bag defending
player. This one is maybe a little too
obvious, but I think in your more casual home leagues you
could actually take action on this.
Crystal Labe. So I get that other wide
receivers going yeah, I get the other wide receivers that went
near him in drafts, Nico Collins, Devante Adams, Malik
neighbors, Marvin Harrison. They've had huge blow up games
and Olave has not so that that sucks as a drafter.
You haven't had that huge game yet, but his per route stats 21%
targets for outrun. That's not incredible, certainly
not horrible. 2.4 yards per out, one through 2 weeks.
That's extremely efficient. That'd be a, you know, top 15
metric in NFL through a full season.
And like, the biggest storyline in the entire NFL right now is
how Clint Kubiak or Clint Shanahan, as I call him, has
turned Derek Carr into, like, Brock Purdy on steroids.
Like Derek Carr, because I think they've scored 15 times on 15
offensive drives. It is true everyone is talking
about this in a way that is like my whole Twitter timeline is way
too nerdy to be this locked in on Clint Kubiak, but it's all
anyone's talking about. It's all anyone's talking about.
So we have who I think is still, you know, Rashid Shahid, we can
get to that conversation. I think he's a baller, he's a
player too. But I still think in Crystal
Labe, we have the best offensive weapon on the team.
That's like the number one storyline in the NFL so far.
And the box score results have not been there.
So if you can buy low in your casual leagues or maybe in some
of these best ball contests, if he's gone down around or so, I
think, I think he's a huge, huge buy.
I think he's going to have massive weeks this season.
Just zooming out on the chart and where the Saints offense is.
Give it to you, Crane on your thoughts on Crystal Labe.
I love that one. Just that that's a great one.
He's I mean it to me, it's a similar type of situation
Stargans were making for Kelsey where it's like, hey, like this.
Do you want to be more invested in the Saints passing game than
you were before or less right? You want to be more invested in
the chiefs passing game or less like more Saints?
Obviously, very, very obviously more invested in their passing
game and the running game. I guess I mean, I would Camaro
is really making my my fate on him look dumb.
But 45% play action rate for Derek Carr.
He was at 1414% last year. He went from the lowest play
action rate in the league to the highest play action rate in the
league. It's been.
I mean, that's not the only change they made, but I think,
you know, sums up kind of the change in philosophy quite
nicely. Like, let's get this guy moving
around a little bit more, unlock some bigger plays, you know,
have the defense not be sure what we're going to do before we
do it. Seems pretty sharp.
So, yeah, I mean, I don't, I didn't really necessarily fully
buy the Week 1 performance. I thought they would probably
struggle against this Cowboys defense that was going to be
able to pressure them in a way that the Panthers really
weren't. They did not.
They did. They did run it through Camara
more this week, which I thought they might do, but I thought
they might do it as like nothing else is really working and it's
going through Camara. But everything was working and
Camara has the blow up game. Yeah.
I mean, I think the Saints, they're just so much better
design than they were. And so betting on their their
number one receiver who's been a little quiet so far, just as a
sharp way to play it. Yeah, and it's only two weeks
from the season. Long way to go.
I'll make a prediction now. Clint Kubiak is gonna be one of
the buzzier head coach candidates this next.
Offseason. He's gonna be the mayor's head
coach. Yeah, frankly, he should be the
Saints head coach. Yeah, that.
They should just fire Dennis Allen right now after going 2
and O and blowing out both of his.
Opponents it should man just. Fire him and hire Clint Kubiak.
Cuz you're not. You have to do it because if
Clint Kubiak has any other job, he's gonna take that job.
I mean, the Saints are in cap hell.
Like, you can't. You gotta get out of there if
you can. But right now, if you offered
him the job, he might take it. And then I'll just add this on
the the Saints discussion, a lot of people in the comments
saying, you know, Kamara's the focal point, Shahid breaking
out. That's a huge factor.
I just really. Agree with that and how it
works. Here's the thing on good on good
offenses, you can have three very good fantasy assets.
So like Shahid like. I'm sorry Shahid is not going to
score a 50 yard touchdown every week.
What Alave does is much more replicable.
He, he got tackled on the one inch line.
Like it just drives me nuts, man.
I, I, it's like this is the first year I've done fantasy
content literally everyday and like interacted with the public.
And the the craziest thing to me is just how like literally a
foot being in bounds or a foot being in bounds just like
affects the conversation for the entire rest of the week.
I, I do wish people honestly, I just wish people would watch
every game. I think is actually what what
I'm asking, but it drives me. It drives me nuts.
Yeah. I mean, I think that, you know,
and this is a great time of year for this.
It's like you, we want to not like zoom out completely, but
like are, you know, if we're looking for more of a high level
perspective of are the Saints better than we thought?
Yeah, they're definitely better. But like in exactly this way,
they're going to be better in Kamaras going to score 4
touchdowns every week and Shahid's going to get get loose
deep every week. Like no, like they, but they're
doing things that are working. This goes from an offense that
was kind of an afterthought in drafts to one that we want to be
invested in. I think.
I mean, I think we want to be invested in the Saints offense.
Like it's crazy as as that felt, you know, a month ago.
I I did it. What is my truth serum?
I was like, I think the Saints are like fine backdoor stacks,
but I wasn't like the Saints are going to go nuts.
You know, that would have been crazy.
It's always just so tough on how much to trust the coach, change
stuff. Like I, I had the Kubiak thesis
in my mind all offseason, but I can't say I was like 100% all in
on it. Like I, I wasn't, I don't have
30% Derek Carr or whatever. Like I was somewhat in.
Our last show, our last show of the of the of the season, you
were like, why don't we just take Saints?
Why don't we just take Saints Backdoors and I, Yeah, boy, let
me tell you, I've got a lot of Patriots and Broncos backdoors
that I would love to trade. Dude I would trade it in for car
AT Perry at this point. What about Andrew Miller Carr.
Carr could. Literally, literally literally
car in a player on the IR. Yeah.
I don't know if you could get, I don't know if you could get a
Sutton mix for a car AT Perry. I don't know if you're getting
that deal. I had I had Cortland Sutton
higher 37 1/2 receiving yards in like every underdog like
picamentary yesterday and just was miserable watching Bo Nick
drop back to pass. I mean, that's you should never
do anything that makes you watch Bo Nicks.
That's I've learned. Two weeks in, I've learned that.
You can't. The Broncos are most they aren't
even unwashable in like a fun way.
It's not like the the Will Levis experience where he's doing
crazy shit out there. It's Bo Nicks, just like
checking down and like. It's like, it's like every time.
Squad receivers of all time catching the ball like just the
slowest guys. Every time they they would cut
to Steelers Broncos, they're on red zone.
Last night it was just like, what?
What are we hoping to have happen here?
Like can we just watch the Cardinals?
Can we just watch anything other than this is?
I'd rather watch Matt Stafford had like his worst game in 15
years in the NFL yesterday. And like, I'd rather watch Matt
Stafford fumble in the pocket trying to complete passes to
Tyler Johnson then watch one more second above next.
Yeah, don't we have any like cringy Rob Groncaste commercials
or something, Something to watch instead of the the Broncos?
Like I'll I'll watch anything instead of Bonex.
All right, it's very it's it's kind of Bryce Young, you know,
or Bryce Young last year, I guess, but he's sort of playing
a little different this year. It's still bad, but it's like
he's, he's trying to do conservative things and then
it's not, it's taking he's. Literally not good enough to
complete like 5 yard slants. Yeah, yeah.
So I got to keep keeping us on track here.
That the Bonex stuff? Yeah, that's maybe a future
discussion. I'll give it to you.
Crane, I don't think you've done.
You're back defending yet. What do you got?
Jalen Warren, baby. Jalen Warren.
We're back. We're back now.
Are we back in the box score or not really?
That's OK, though. Last week I, you know, everyone
tagging me and you know, gentleman Warren's dead.
Oh man, what a bad take. Jayla Warren, He's going to have
a 13 criticism. My burner accounts just to do
that to. You Yeah, Sam was just trolling
me with all these different burners.
He was recovering from a hamstring injury, as it turns
out, which I which I was hoping was the case.
I notice I didn't take him as my bag defending last week because
I was like, I would really like to see him play more.
In week two. He did play more Dan Naji
Harris. He played 48% of the snaps.
Naji Harris at 45% of the snaps. Harris got a lot more work.
Harris they're still leaning on in in the early down, you know,
but not all the time that, you know, Warren's getting series.
It's somewhat similar to last year.
It's more tilted toward Harris than we want, but we're back to
kind of like what we thought the play was in the 1st place.
So like it's a split backfield. Warren's going to get more of
the receiving stuff. Harris is going to get more of
the early down stuff. Cordell Patterson had a 6%
snapshare. He's back to not being involved,
which is a big deal. We need this to be a two man
thing and now we just bet on the more talented player.
So we're back to that. The Steelers offense, not as fun
as maybe it could have been, or maybe it just never was going to
be fun under Arthur Smith. That's maybe the part that does
look worse. But as far as kind of the the
thesis of the play, we're back to the thesis of the play being
intact, I think. Yeah, and the Arthur Smith
stuff, I want to give him some credit.
Like he knows his opponents. In weeks one and two it was the
Falcons with, you know, one legged Kurt Cousins and the
Broncos with Bo Nicks. Maybe the offense gets a little
bit more creative when they actually have to score points.
Like I think they well. Surely they're going to score
points against the Chargers this week, right?
Surely that'll be a really high. But what is the rest?
Of their schedule. This is ridiculous.
Yeah, like somehow it's going to be the other sixteen lowest
scoring teams in in the NFL, dude.
When when Russ felt his cat, his sore calf, then he he checked
the schedule. I was just like, Oh no, Oh no,
they're going to be able to score 13.
Points a week. I wish there was a big Russell
Wilson guy in our community that we could all be making fun of
this. It's not you.
Look at him. He's he's right here.
I made the Justin Fields bet before I knew it required me to
root for. Russell Wilson.
It was never a bro Russell Wilson bet it just landed that
way. You can check my exposures,
which I actually have no idea what they are, but in my head,
in my head it's like 7% Justin Fields in DraftKings, 0% Russell
Wilson. Now I think I have like 1%
Russell Wilson, but here, here's a bad take for you, Davis.
This was kind of running around in my head in the offseason.
Isn't Jalen Warren's upside case a lot better with Russ at QB
than than Justin Fields or checkdowns?
Yeah, yeah. Goal line check.
We all, I think we all sort of realize that.
Because the I always thought the Jalen Warren thesis like relied
pretty heavily on the receiving. You kind of need Russ for that
over fields, don't you? He relies somewhat on the
receiving, but it relies on him also being a good, like a really
good runner. So, but I think I agree with
you. I think his upside's a little
higher with Russ got dude, they get the Colts in week four.
Oh my God, it's over dude. It's over.
It's the Steelers are going to be 4 and O and they're going to
have scored 24 points, 0 touchdowns, 0 touchdowns.
I did the same thing. 0 touchdowns.
I did the same thing with the Chargers when I was trying to be
like, oh, Justin Herbert's going to have better weeks.
Like, surely they're playing like one good offense this
season, and it's like they play the Panthers like five times
over the next seven weeks. I'm like, what?
Is that legal? Yeah, is.
This possibly legal? Like they they literally have 0.
Good. Dude.
Their schedule's so easy. They get they get the Chargers,
Colts, then the Cowboys, but that doesn't look as as bad as
it was. The Raiders, The Jets, the
Giants, and then they get the Commanders after the Week 9.
By then it gets a little harder after that, but man, there's
like they might not lose more than a couple games before
they're by Oh. God.
They might lose 1 like they might seriously, they could beat
the Chargers, the Colts, they'll probably lose the the Cowboys,
they'll probably lose The Jets. So there you go.
They're they're six and two heading into the by.
Yeah, Steelers. Steelers are going to be in the,
you know, that Saturday, 1:00 PM wild card game and just get
absolutely blown. Out by the Buffalo Bills.
Yeah, just you can already pencil that in if you want to
play some some future bets on that.
All right, we'll move on here. Steelers defense Mega chalk in
the FFPC? Yes.
Yeah. The mega chalk for Steelers
defense. Oh man, we'll move on here to
panic button takes. I'll I'll go first.
I I stopped Davis from talking too much about Sam LaPorte here
because he's my panic button player.
First of all, I want to say on the positive side, like please
interpret this correctly. I'm not saying Sam Laporta is
some kind of like Dead Fantasy asset.
He's still a top six tight end for me, but I think.
He was the tight end 1. He was the 30th overall pick.
Exactly. Yeah.
So you know, I I ended up, I was not in on Sam Laporta.
I did end up with him in some manage stuff.
I'm in some like industry leagues where he went later than
expected, actually took him in FPC main event where he went way
past ADP. So I did get some exposure to
him and I think like as as Davis was pointing out earlier, I
think the Jameson Williams and Jameer Gibbs year 2 leaps are
just coming at the expense of Sam Laporta.
Like you watch this version of Jameson Williams in the offense
and it's easy to understand how Sam Laporta only gets like 2
targets on 50 routes last week. Like Jameson Williams is the guy
you want with the ball in his hands in the open field over Sam
Laporta. If it's that binary of a choice,
I think we've just gotten to a point where like these, they
just assembled a really talented offense.
Jameson Williams looks really good.
I'll happily take that on that. I think he looks awesome out
there. Jameer Gibbs, really explosive
player. Monroe St.
Brown is still going to do a Monroe stuff.
And I think Laporta. It's just that that case of him
being like the clear #2 in the offense or taking a leap in Year
2. I just don't see how it happens.
I think on the positive side, you know, zooming way out, we're
still talking about the Lions. We're still talking about a Ben
Johnson offense. Like I'm not too upset if I have
a piece of that, but I just don't really see the ceiling
here for Sam Laporta, you know, where he was drafted at ADPI
think, you know, Bowers 70 picks later, Kittle 40 picks later or
whatever. Those look like way better bets
to me, which is kind of the thesis of the fade for me and
bestball. So yeah, not not full blown
panic, but I think the the upside case for Sam Laporta like
now almost requires an injury to one of these other pass
catchers. Or he just has to run Gigahot on
touchdowns. He's got score.
He's got score on 13 touchdowns. But even the touchdowns case
like David Montgomery is like one of the best goal line backs
in the like it just it can't happen.
Touchdown flukiness like can always happen like you shouldn't
try to over predict that. But even that side of it, like I
don't think you get into the red zone and you're like Sam Laporta
is the one guy we have here. Like they, they have options all
across the board. So yeah, he he's a guy I would
move pretty, you know, 2020 spots down the rankings from
where he was drafted, something like that.
Still still a top five, six round player probably, but not a
guy I'm pumped. I took, you know, in the third
round. Yeah, yeah, No, I, I, I, I wrote
about that this week. It's just like basically Jameson
Williams is not a bit, if he's not, you know, Cadarius, Tony,
that moves Laporta from being like a 22% target share guy to a
17% target share guy. And there are 1,000,017% target
share guys, you know, Hunter, Hunter Henry, I guess not Dalton
Schultz, you know, just like Gerald Everett, you know, like,
like obviously Laporta is obviously better than those
guys. And they're going to play, you
know, 16 Dome games in a row or whatever.
And like he, I think he'll be fine.
But yeah, he's just not going to be the highest scoring tight end
in fantasy if Jameson is. Jameson now has 20 targets for
two weeks like. Yeah, dude, he's just it's.
Just not happening. He's flipped.
He's flipped the switch like again, I'll like, admit how
wrong I was here on Jameson. I ended up like 4% of him.
Again, I made that up because that makes me feel better.
Probably lower, but ended up with 4%, Ended up with 4% of
him. Dude, he's just, he's just good.
And they're scheming up, like scheming him up way differently
than they did the past two years.
Like it's you can basically toss that data out from the first two
years. Like I'm ready to throw that
away at this point. Like, that doesn't matter.
It's a different situation. Yeah.
He looks really good. I mean, he's I think the thing
that's that's concerning if you're Laporta or if you're, you
know, if you have Laporta bags, is that what does Laporta do for
the offense that Amin Ross St. Brown doesn't do for the
offense? Right.
It's all kind of the similar short area stuff.
He's probably, you know, better around the goal line, but Amin
Ross kind of just a better version of the Laporta target.
Jameson unlocks a whole new element to the offense like that
deep threat and and also just the ability to like get moving
over the middle of the field And he's like super fast now.
Like there's lots of different things you can do with Jameson
Williams that really adds an element to the offense in a way
that like reporter is very good. He's pretty good after the
catch, but he's not doing like they have almond raw.
Like almond raw is kind of going to always be the number one
target earner in the short area of the field and probably the
intermediary field too. So it's just it he was all yeah,
this it's very it's very damaging because they now have
like a secondary option and Williams that by being the
secondary option, I think makes the offense better.
Exactly. 100% agree on that Davis.
Any final points on La Porta? Otherwise, move on to your panic
button player this week. Yeah, I'm trying to decide my
panic. One of them was it's too insular
to best ball and there's nothing we can do about it now.
But it is the Denver Broncos. This idea like, oh, you just
take one of the Denver Broncos running backs every time.
You're going to get all these expected points, the expected
points. I mean, maybe they will get the
expected points, but there's not going to be any actual points
there because Bonex is too ass. I think a more helpful and
useful take for people who are still playing or are going to be
drafting moving forward will be the Rams are actually going to
have the season that the haters thought they were going to have
last year. Remember, coming into last year,
part part of the reason, part of the reason why, you know, Kyron
was going undrafted was like, oh, Stafford's going to retire.
He's got this wrist injury. McVeigh might retire.
Aaron Donald just retired. Like all this stuff.
And they actually kind of pulled it out and had a decent season.
It's it's all happening now. I mean, it's it's over cups
going on the IR, Pook is on the IR.
You've got 36 year old Matt Stafford with Tyler Johnson,
DeMarcus Robinson, A22 Atwell and Colby Parkinson.
Like, oh, Kyron Williams, He's going to be dude, it's not
happening for Kyron. It's, it's, it's Siberia, man.
It, it's over. Like they're all send them all
to 0. It's, it's not, it's, it's not
going to happen for the for the Rams.
It looks bad, it looks really bad.
And yeah, I actually 1st is my Internet breaking out?
I lost you. Guys, it did.
It did for a second. It did give us the wheel for a
second, but you're back. OK, I'm back.
OK, I want to say this pretty carefully because I think
victory lapping injured players is like one of the most annoying
things people do. Don't do it in the fantasy
space, but. 6th round rookie from Texas.
But but dot dot dot, that's all I'll say.
That's all I'll say. No, you.
Shouldn't you should have just said target Cliff?
You should have just said target Cliff and move target Cliff.
I I was texting back and forth with bro to Pat last night.
I'm like there's a there's a target Cliff joke out there.
I'm I'm not brave enough to do it.
They don't want to take it. No man, but like seriously, like
aging player. This is part of the thesis of
like aging players coming off injuries and again, like the cup
thing could have totally. He wasn't like high luck injury,
though. He was coming off.
He was coming off a season where he was banged up the entire year
and was like playing the whole year.
I don't know if I would classify he was coming off a season that
had been marred by injuries, but he was completely healthy all
offseason. I mean 30.
To Sam's point though, 31 year olds just get hurt.
Yeah. I'm saying like if you're
building any reasonable model of like predicting injuries like
age, that's a big factor. That's ankle.
Sprain. No one's.
No one's susceptible to high ankle sprains from dudes rolling
up on them. Like that's not.
Guys who've had lots of soft tissue and lower body injuries
are more likely. Hamstrings, hamstrings and
ankles. Hamstrings and ankles.
That's what we're talking about here.
If he pulled his handy, you'd have a much stronger case here.
This is a this is this can happen to anybody.
Just just happen to Pacheco because he's a year old.
I just I just don't buy that like Cooper cop and Malik
neighbors have the same like injury risk going into the
season when one of them's like 32 and others 23.
Like I just I just don't believe that's that's true.
Like it does. It's not about exactly how it
happened for me. It's just like.
I think it should matter if you're, if you're bringing it up
as relevant, it should matter how it happened.
The the Cooper Cup getting a high ankle strain was never more
likely because he's he's older. A high ankle sprain is something
that happens to you because of a tackle.
This isn't even like a, it's like.
This is like this is like tank Dell getting rolled up on run
block. Yeah, it just happened.
This is This is extraordinarily thin, like you're it didn't have
anything to do with his age. Him getting hurt did not have
anything to do with his age. In fact, him the age thing
looked pretty bad because he was clearly still going to be the
engine of the offense if he stayed healthy despite being.
I think I Sam, I think you did get bailed out a little bit, let
me say. Got bailed the fuck out.
No. He was like on a per target
basis, like through two games, he was like one of the most
inefficient. How many and on how many
targets, Sam, on how many targets?
You don't think that like? The fucking duck name and how
many targets and aging how many targets?
Sam player that gets hit. A ton does not have a higher
injury risk than a younger player with no medical history
like I. I just 100% we're just not
coming. On this like you're, you're kind
of doing this thing where you want to make it about, do older
players have a higher injury risk than younger players?
Like, yeah, they do, they do OK, they do.
But like to bring up that. That you were right to be fading
Cooper Cup and now he's injured as if those two things are
related because of his age. They're not.
He got this particular injury has nothing to do with him being
older. This this is a stupid.
Argument that you lap on a high ankle sprain for cup like that
is, I'm saying, fucking stupid. This has nothing to do like
this. Let me make a point.
Make a point in Sam's favor. I'm going to make a point in
Sam's favor. I think Sam is wrong that he got
hurt because he was injured. But what Sam is correct about is
that if you have a high ankle sprain at 31, your recovery is
not going to be like when you're 24.
Sure, I'll give you that. I'll give you that.
Yeah. Now that he's hurt, it's it
sucks that he's old. Now that he's hurt, it sucks
that he's old. Yeah.
I love, I love yelling at each other on the show.
The point I'm just trying to make and the point I was saying
all offseason is that like cup, Cup sealing, that was
undeniable. But if you weren't factoring in
like increased downside risk for him due to his profile, his age,
his history of injuries, I think that was wrong.
Our job is to make bets and like cup.
Well, don't you think so? Cup clear Cup clearly.
Can you just let me wait? Just let me just point.
Cup clearly had a pash, a path to just smashing me and make me
look like an idiot. Like that was always on the
table. But I think our job is to like
make bets with these guys and I think he had much higher
downside risk than other guys going near him.
That that was my point of the season, the process.
They stuff like I got lucky. He rolled his.
Ankle you got extraordinarily lucky I think and I and so did
I. I was not really taking cup is I
think cup pretty clearly was one of the worst price players in
the pool in a in that he should have been going higher.
Cup should have been going a lot higher.
Like I did not think that cup heading into like week one,
right? You got Puka.
He goes out with injury, but like from the jump we were like,
oh shit, the season where he's just like the clear engine, the
offense with Puka on the field is in play.
Like I thought after the way last year finished with the
playoff game and everything and Puka coming on and he's the
second year player and cups aging.
I was like the upside case for cup is good but not amazing and
very clearly we saw that the no no no, he leads all wide
receivers and targets. Even if Puka stays healthy, is
is possible? Corrine, let me let me ask you a
question. Let me ask you A.
Question. We were making too much downside
if that was the case. Let's say he doesn't get injured
yesterday. He he, he plays that game and he
finishes with six for 65. I don't think we're and I was a
big, I was more of a cup guy than I, I more than you.
I mean, he was, I was, I was drafting him the whole time.
Are you, are we feeling pretty bad about Cooper Cup after
watching them play that game yesterday?
Just being like, this team just doesn't have the horses.
It's just. It's just.
Not that that's part of my perspective.
I don't think we would. I mean, frankly, I would, I
guess my answer would be no. I mean, he's disappointing as
like Mega chalk and you know, DFS and everything and we're
like wow, them getting like completely blown out by the
Cardinals is not good. But I think maybe you would be
more worried about their running back who doesn't catch a ton of
passes than the wide receiver who just gets peppered targets,
you know? What I mean Kyron, by the way,
they just started every drive with a -1 yard run.
Every drive was like Kyron Williams for -1 yards, right?
Yeah, I. Guess I mean he he got 21
targets in League One man. He got 21 targets.
Like yeah, 20. 21 yard targets for 70 yards is pretty cool, but
you're still going to lose every game.
He had 110 yards and a touchdown.
So I don't know. I mean, I just we're not we
don't play in like points per did your team win leagues?
You know what I mean? Like I just it seems we're
backwards here. We're bending over backwards.
Cupp was clearly one of the better picks on the board at at
price. I mean he was going in the late
3rd at times like you're talking about.
We didn't bake it enough downside.
Like this dude showed that he could still return to just
getting just being the true number one in an offense he.
Did he did really prove the breakfast narrative?
He did prove that when he did prove that when Stafford is like
having a bad day, he's just going to be like, well, fuck it,
I'm just going to give Cooper the ball.
And if we lose, we lose. He stays healthy, he's going to
out produce Jamar Chase like this, this, this idea that like
we didn't bake in enough downside risk like we did.
We baked in a lot. Actually, we baked in a lot of
downside risk compared to the upside case that to be clear, I
was not in on. I did not think that that that
upside case was intact with Puka Nakua there.
Now puka going out helped. You know, he doesn't rack up 21
targets in week 1 if puka's on the field.
But like still like he was even with puka on the field, he was
already, you know, showing. I was like, uh oh, because I had
a lot of puka I was in on. I was in on the Puka's the year
2 guy, he's going to merge also hurt, by the way, I don't know
if you know this Puka's actually younger than Cooper, Cooper Cup
and hurt his knee. So it does.
Young players can get hurt too. But like, I just didn't think
that that cup kind of reclaiming the mantle from a healthy Puka
was like even I mean, I'm like, come on, that's going to happen.
And I think I think it would have happened.
I guess it's all we we don't really know, but it looked like
that's the way things were headed.
Yeah, those are good points. And I think honestly with the
cup stuff, like I think when you say he was going 3-4 turn a part
of the offseason, that was that was wrong for sure.
You know, he he was underpriced there when he was going by the
end of the season. I pick 14/15/16 on DraftKings.
In my opinion, that was also very wrong.
And I think Crane, you were with me at that at the time at least.
I don't know where you you'd say no, no, I but.
I was with, I mean, I never was hammering cup like I yeah, I
think I ended up like 5 or 6%. I wasn't like fully fading him.
This isn't a I was right about cup.
Why weren't you with me? Yeah, I was at 6%.
No, yeah, I'm not saying that's what you're saying.
So I'm the only one with skin in the game who got impacted by
this? Well, fuck you guys.
This is a classic. Crane and I yell at each other
for 30 minutes. We have the same exposure.
Have the identical exposure to Cooper Cop.
It's about it's about updating our priors.
I think to me you've updated your priors in a very
self-serving direction and I think that we should we were
wrong. We were just wrong on cop like
he he he had a lot more upside than I thought he did.
Yeah, I, I, I disagree with that, but we got to move on
here, Crane, you're panic button player.
Well, now that I've yelled at you and called your take really
stupid, I'll I'll give you a little bit of you know, this is
an apology take. I'm going to say panic button on
Kamati Meidel. Your your boy JK Dobbins victory
lap last week. Could not disagree more with
this Corrine. Because here's the thing.
Here's the thing about JK Dobbins.
He just looks really good and I Gus Edwards looks like ass.
So like, I'm not sure that this is like the Chargers are running
the ball well. Immaterial.
I think Dobbins is just like the
dude, like we we bet we were like OK, uncertain backfield.
We got to find the uncertain backfields and then we got to
take. Now we can't take JK Dobbins
because he's going to be totally dust.
So we got to we got to take a sixth round rookie, right?
We got to take Gus Edwards, who stinks, but we can't take JK
Dobbins. I don't know.
I just think like what JK Dobbins is doing is, is just
really impressive right now and what like what what are we even,
you know, through injury? I guess we could get by Dell
later in the year. But like we over, we maybe over
thought this one by Dell 6 round rookie versus the guy they said
was going to be a big part of their offense.
Feel like we should have taken that guy.
No. So This is why you're wrong.
You're wrong for three reasons. So the first reason you're wrong
is that Gus stinks. Harbaugh's only going to
tolerate a running back stinking behind his offensive line for so
long. The second reason you're wrong
is that these running backs that they've had active over him have
not played on offense at all. I actually literally do not know
if it's Jarrett Patterson or Hassan Hacken, Hassan Haskins,
but they've only been active for special teams.
And the third reason you're wrong is that there was a little
bit of implosion risk for the Chargers with this.
I thought of being like, Harbaugh just doesn't.
Harbaugh doesn't know the NFL game.
Greg Roman gets kicked out of every like by by like Greg Roman
just almost ends up being bad. All that is not true.
They're great running the ball. The offensive line is great.
The vibes are high. They're two and O Herbert seems
happy. It's all good.
Edwards is going to 0. Videl will be active now.
Maybe Videl won't be active till week 5, but it's it's definitely
it's definitely happening. Yeah.
That that is I I really disagree with this panic button.
I hope, I hope you're right. I hope you're right.
I have a lot of, I have a lot of idol.
So yeah, be nice. I have a lot of idol too, and I
also want to be clear that like me victory dot lapping Dobbins
last week I was not I was more in on Vidal than Dobbins.
I I got pretty high on Dobbins like near the end.
So definitely got some. But yeah, I I hope Davis is
right on this. Can I I will, I will second
quickly. Yeah, and then I'll let you go
Crane. I'll second quickly like the the
Gus Edwards, at least the snaps I looked at last week looked
like he's out of the league pretty soon like it.
It looks really, really ugly for him.
They they need to probably to get punched in the mouth a
couple times and like lose some games for them to make a change
because if they're just winning, they probably don't change it
up. But.
Looks looks very tough. Leonard Fournetti.
It looks, it looks real ugly. Go ahead, Cran, you have to get
a point. There, well, Davis is.
Davis is correct. So can I change my answer?
This one's more fun. Go ahead.
Yeah, go ahead. Yeah, because Davis, you're
right. Eventually by that we'll get a
chance and and we'll see. Then how about DeAndre Swift?
We did the we did the Bears receivers last week.
DeAndre Swift has. -44 rushing yards over expectation -5444 was
just last night. And he's got a 18% success rate,
which is kind of the the thesis of the fade on DeAndre Swift is
that he's really inconsistent when he gets, he had a catch
last night where he like got going and I was like, oh, this
is fun. Like when he's he has a great
second. Or maybe it's, yeah, I think
it's like a second slash third year that he kind of gets into.
You're like, that's that's impressive.
But he doesn't always get there. And man, he's he's just not the
the inside runner that they're going to want to lean on.
Herbert gets gets the touchdown. I think we're going to, yeah.
Sorry, funny comment. Funny comment from Nez I wanted
to pull up. Swift is a smash in my bounced
outside for no game league. Him and him and Chase Brown
actually go at the the 1-2 turn in those leagues.
So yeah, for sure, I think he goes one O 1, yeah.
Jacob Jacob made this great point yesterday on Twitter.
He's he. Jacob is so smart.
He noted that like all the high leverage third, third down and
4th down short, like short yard stuff was Herbert.
So pretty clearly what's happening is the coaches like
Khalil Herbert more, but they know the GM paid Swift three
years, 24,000,000. So they're like, shit, I I guess
we got to use DeAndre Swift. But like, when a play really
matters, it's going to Khalil Herbert.
Yeah, the other thing was swift, like, you know, the the
restaurants over expected stuff like does take into account
eight men in the box and everything.
But like, I still like to look at, you know, who's facing a ton
of stacked boxes because that's like rush yards ever expected is
going to be juiced by long runs. So are you going to like, what?
What's the chance for a couple weeks?
Like who's more likely to RIP off long run?
So for example, Jemonte Williams has the second lowest rush yards
ever expected in the league at -47 but he's faced the highest
stacked box rate in the NFL. He's got through two weeks, 58%
of his carries have come against 8 plus defenders in the box.
Jordan Mason is second at only 40%, so 58 to 40.
So he's he's in a tough situation for Javonte Williams.
Swift lowest stack box rate in the NFL so far, 8% and yet the
lowest rush yards ever expected in the NFL.
I would say if anything that makes us more confident.
This is, like, real like. He's had chances to RIP off long
run so far. Yeah, it's only two weeks, but
he's also been a bad runner for a while, so.
Yeah. Yeah, that not looking good.
That's a good one. I think they got to go to
Herbert at some point. The Swift stuff looks, looks
really bad to my eye as well. I think the people who are, you
know, briefly giving the other side of things, the people who
are saying his role is, is pretty secure and more locked in
than people think. You can say that's right through
two weeks. It's just a matter of whether
that is going to hold up over the course of the season.
All right, guys, an hour 10 in I think did I, did I miss
everyone? I think I got let everyone get
their panic button takes off. Ran.
Sorry, did you do 1? Yeah, did you do 1?
I did Sam La Florida. Oh yeah.
Oh, right, yeah. Yeah.
So is someone getting like? Is there a chainsaw going off in
the? Crane has there's.
Never a good recording setup for me no matter what I do.
He's. Got he's got landscapers.
I change rooms. I'm Ethernetted in.
No, this is this is a neighbor. This is not.
I'm ethernetted in. Now, I did leave the back door
open, which is creating quite a bit more chainsaw noise than you
might otherwise hear, but it's nice out and I wanted a little
flow of air. So yeah, my bad there.
All right, well, anyways, fun, fun show guys, wouldn't it
wouldn't be ADP Jason without a little bit of screaming, yelling
at each other. I'm glad.
I'm glad we got that out of our. System, I can't believe you
victory left all right, the whole point of the that's just
completely blown away, truly blown away.
I was not victory lapping the injury.
I I said that at the very beginning of the take.
If you roll roll, the producer will will prove me right on this
one. You clearly were victory
laughing. I was not you.
You guys put me in so much pain last week.
I I'm not allowed to go back to the pieces of the bed.
I had to grab myself to sleep after last last week's show,
right? So this.
Is your villain origin story we we put you in too much pain?
I tried that. In the show and.
You. You fucking dragged me well.
We, I mean, he said, he said he hit the target clip.
He hit a target clip in week 1, I guess 21 he.
Hit it, he hit it until he fell off the target Cliff after week
one. That's that is for sure.
Oh man, this Cooper Cup stuff is so stupid.
But anyways, where are we at guys?
Anything Davis you got going on this week you want to tell
people about? Yeah, streaming every day.
Youtube.com/davis Under score Matic Be there or be Square.
Awesome, Pat, anything going? On check out Legendary Upside,
we're going to have a quick slant posted here by Matt Irby
on the Monday Night Football game, So look for that.
And yeah, we got the waiver wire, weekly rankings, rest
season rankings, Sam helping out with the weekly and rest season
rankings, and we've got the walkthrough out every Friday.
So yeah, check that out. Respectfully, Sam and I did not
agree on the Cooper Cup stuff. Respectfully, I think your take
is is not correct. Yeah, respectfully, Cooper Cup.
Respectfully, Cooper Cup is not Justin Jefferson.
Respectfully. Respectfully, I tried to rank or
she Rice over Cooper Cup and the rest of season rankings.
I was vetoed there. Respectfully, by some opinions I
really respect. On people.
But I did, I did try to help out the leg up subscribers, but
respectfully, I was. Yeah, cuz you respectfully knew
that he was going to suffer high ankle sprain this week, cuz
you're respectfully really good at.
Predicting, to be clear, this. I say this with a lot of
respect. I really love all the stuff that
leg up. Love all things.
Respectfully, let's please get the fuck out of here.
Yeah, I will say quickly, before we get out of here, I'd really
recommend, hope you guys check out my weekly article on a Salva
Saron breaking down the film of all the breakout players.
This week I'm going to look into Quinton Johnson.
That should be an interesting one.
Also look into probably Hunter Henry, Brock Bowers, maybe
something with the Saints offense.
Still figuring it out, but last week broke down the JK Dobbins
JMO stuff was all in on them being big difference makers
after what I saw in week 1. So hopefully that's helpful for
your guys trades, maybe your waivers with some of the
players. But yeah, that's all I have to
say. We will see you guys next week
as soon as I can find the outro clip.
Peace.