1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:05,840 Welcome to week 11 of stat chasing. 2 00:00:05,920 --> 00:00:10,060 There's only three weeks left until we hit the fantasy play 3 00:00:10,060 --> 00:00:15,120 offs and this week we got blue balled by the return from injury 4 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,280 from Devana Chan and Justin Jefferson. 5 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:25,440 This is stat chasing Pat Fryer helmo this. 6 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:28,920 Is Why This is why I'm Hot Anita. 7 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:30,920 Handjob. Fix Your sight. 8 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:38,080 Jamar Alpha, Play Chase. You can't handle the heat. 9 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:39,760 It looks like we're finally at this point. 10 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:50,360 You're right. You might even say we got a we 11 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:54,520 got a Turkey from a chain. We we did. 12 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:56,960 We did. Yeah, that man that was so 13 00:00:56,960 --> 00:01:04,120 disappointing as a man who has like 24% Davana Chan in BBM was 14 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:06,080 really looking forward to this week. 15 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:11,320 But alas, I'll I'll have to wait at least one more week for him 16 00:01:11,320 --> 00:01:16,480 to come back. Yeah, yeah, I I I'm so not 17 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:19,000 consoling myself, but I'm thinking even with the Justin 18 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:22,360 Jefferson stuff, where? If I can still get some 19 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:27,080 Jefferson teams in like Low own Justin Jefferson coming off 20 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:31,440 injury is so nice. The the Justin Jefferson dynamic 21 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:34,160 is super interesting too because you're gonna have such a high 22 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:37,160 rate of those teams being paired with Kirk Cousins. 23 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:42,280 So the Holy Grail is you get a Justin Jefferson Divana Chan 24 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:45,640 with no Kirk Cousins team through the playoffs. 25 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:50,520 That's like, yeah, that feels like such a smash to me if you 26 00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:53,160 sneak any of those through. And I, you know, Lord knows I 27 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:58,040 got a good grip of those, 'cause I was my son ran the 101 pretty 28 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:02,280 hard this this summer that, you know, I think underdog got wind 29 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:04,320 that I was becoming a best ball influencer. 30 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:07,520 So they were just making sure that I got my due of 101's. 31 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:12,560 And so I'm overweight, JJ, by a good clip, you know, got a huge 32 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:16,640 bag on a Chan and then I was just about field neutral on Kirk 33 00:02:16,640 --> 00:02:18,480 Cousins. So I might might be able to 34 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:20,080 sneak a couple of those in there. 35 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:22,240 How How does this sound? So? 36 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:26,240 No. Kirk Cousins, Chua, CJ Strad 37 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:33,200 with Tank, Dale, Jordan Anderson and and Justin Jefferson with A 38 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:38,520 Chan and JT and Reese. I can only, I can only get so 39 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:41,400 erect. That's pretty good. 40 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:44,840 Yeah, that's that's one where if you get that one through, how's 41 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:47,000 it sitting right now? Oh, it's going. 42 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:51,400 It's going to advance. Oh yeah, baby, that's nice. 43 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:56,800 That's really exciting. So it's it's ahead by about well 44 00:02:57,080 --> 00:03:02,040 it's ahead by about 46 points that that is pretty exciting. 45 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:07,160 Well I had, I had an interesting interesting weekend. 46 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:12,200 So shout out to J Fresh who was nice enough to invite me along 47 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:15,400 to King of the Beach as one of his plus ones. 48 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:19,040 The man was just bee sting and got three tickets through on D 49 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:22,320 KS King of the Beach tournament. So I was in Miami with him. 50 00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:26,400 You know just doing some doing some scouting of Miami prior to 51 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:29,360 my trip there for the dog bowl. Really making sure that I've got 52 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:31,160 the right mindset to take that down. 53 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:35,480 So it was a it was a fun. Experience airly out of the way 54 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:37,560 with. So you're just sat down and 55 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:40,120 focused. Exactly, exactly. 56 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:43,880 It was very strategic. But you know what I think that 57 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:48,640 there was a hit that got placed on sacrilegious on my my travels 58 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:50,400 back. You know, one of my fellow dog 59 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:54,280 Wolf competitors put it out on me my my plane had an engine 60 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:56,560 malfunction on the way back from Miami. 61 00:03:57,040 --> 00:03:58,600 I literally, I've never felt this before. 62 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:01,480 So we're we're flying, we've been in the air for like 3 hours 63 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:05,800 and the plane like all of a sudden feels like it stops 64 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:09,440 moving forward. Like not like a hard lurch, but 65 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:12,200 like we just lost a considerable amount of speed. 66 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:15,640 Pilot gets on the intercom, he's like, hey everybody, we're 67 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:17,880 having an engine malfunction. We're gonna have to turn around 68 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:20,800 and land back in Austin. You just can't trust these 69 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:22,800 basketball nerds. No, No. 70 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:24,640 Yeah. So someone out there was trying 71 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:26,640 to knock me off before the dog bowl. 72 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:29,760 But, you know, rumors of my demise have been greatly 73 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:30,840 exaggerated. I'm. 74 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:32,560 I'm still alive and kicking. So. 75 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:34,800 OK. I'll have to try again harder 76 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:37,840 next week. Oh man, what a plot twist. 77 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:44,440 And and I I hear you, you told me you have some personal news 78 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:46,960 to share too. Oh yeah, almost forgot. 79 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:52,360 So my, my work my my content is going to be over at leg up going 80 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:55,320 forward contributing over at Pat's site. 81 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:58,200 Super excited to be on board there, I think. 82 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:01,520 I I can't remember if I've said this on the show before, but 83 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:04,440 literally the reason that I joined the ship chasing Discord 84 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:08,400 was I was grinding the FFPC playoff tournament last season 85 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:12,000 and I had made my own ownership projections and combinatorial 86 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:15,760 ownership stuff. And I was watching ship chasing 87 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:19,080 and saw, you know, Pat talking about his ownership projections. 88 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:22,680 And I I, you know, paid the premium Discord subscription 89 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:25,160 just to get those projections and compare them to mine. 90 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:28,880 So you know, obviously Pat's a super sharp dude and very 91 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:30,560 excited to be working with him going forward. 92 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:35,280 Yeah. Well now I guess 22 cross 93 00:05:35,280 --> 00:05:39,040 collaborations. Well this this one is smaller 94 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:43,480 but. Well, I I I don't know where 95 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:46,360 it's going with that. You're you're you're intertwined 96 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:50,080 with the ship chasing community. Now I guess they fold into the 97 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:53,400 fold and honestly, you know, I know we've had a pretty long 98 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:56,040 preamble here before we get in the charts, but just like the 99 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:59,200 thing that is keeping me interested in fantasy football 100 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:02,600 this season, like I I feel like it's normal for people to get 101 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:04,400 burned out as you go through fantasy season. 102 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:06,960 It's long, it's grindy, especially if you're doing like 103 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:10,360 a lot of work either whether it be on content or you're doing 104 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:12,800 like your own analysis to try and make sure you're staying 105 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:15,800 sharp and and getting the biggest advantage you can and 106 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:18,920 the game formats that you play. It's easy to get burnt out by 107 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:21,600 this point in the season, but honestly for me like the 108 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:25,400 community is so fantastic that that is really what's keeping me 109 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:27,360 going. So shout out to the coolest 110 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:29,920 community you know, not just in fantasy. 111 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:32,360 You guys are just awesome. So happy to be a part of it. 112 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:39,160 Yeah well I I everyone in in in the community is definitely have 113 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:45,080 been happy to to have you and with that said let's say I know 114 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:48,200 this is a bit abrupt but let's let's kick into the the 115 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:55,520 quarterback chart and I think I I I feel I feel like if if we're 116 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:58,560 trying to cut off some of the Turkey to to or or some of the 117 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:03,280 gravy for Thanksgiving that. I I don't know that we have a 118 00:07:03,280 --> 00:07:06,720 lot more to share on on quarterbacks. 119 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:09,640 You you want me to rapid fire my takes when I was putting. 120 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:13,320 No, no, no, no, no, no. Oh, I I mean, I was gonna say 121 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:15,200 look there's there's really not. You're right. 122 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:18,280 There's not a ton of things we need to spend time on here. 123 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:21,760 I I really just had like two or three that I I. 124 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:25,920 Wanted no no I I don't want to shortchange any point just. 125 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:30,840 I I'm more making the. I'm more making the point that a 126 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:32,800 lot of this stuff we we sort of discussed. 127 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:36,320 Yeah, absolutely. My my biggest take away is just 128 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:38,840 you know looking at this chart number one. 129 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:41,840 I mean I've already capitulated on Barack Purdy this season like 130 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:45,200 he was a great pick for Bestball great fantasy quarterback. 131 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:48,000 I will still say I think he's not a good real life 132 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:50,280 quarterback, but it doesn't matter he's in the best system 133 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:52,120 for a quarterback. I'm pretty sure you could pick 134 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:56,080 like 80% of the quarterbacks that are on this chart. 135 00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:58,440 Put them in San Francisco and they'd have better numbers than 136 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:00,400 Purdy, right? That's my whole thing. 137 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:03,880 But I was wrong for fantasy because it doesn't matter. 138 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:06,800 It's just the system. So my mental note to remember 139 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:09,560 going forward is, you know, I'm pretty sure it's going to be 140 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:12,520 pretty next year. But whoever it is, whoever Kyle 141 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:15,480 Shanahan's quarterback is, if they're surrounded by the 142 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:18,520 caliber of weapons that San Francisco has right now, you 143 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:20,280 just draft that quarterback like that. 144 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:23,120 That's all all there is to it. It doesn't matter how bad you 145 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:24,800 think they are, you just draft them. 146 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:28,640 So that was my my Purdy recapitulation and also 147 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:33,400 reigniting my fervor that he is not a a good real life 148 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:34,600 quarterback. But it doesn't matter. 149 00:08:35,039 --> 00:08:37,679 So one thing that I think is a little bit interesting. 150 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:41,720 Is that Jimmy G benefited from the same system. 151 00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:49,240 Well was never actually that useful as a it was never that 152 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:53,920 useful as as a sort of fantasy producer like he he definitely 153 00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:57,640 had games. But then there was also games 154 00:08:57,640 --> 00:09:00,920 where like they're like, you know, let's just hand the ball 155 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:06,040 off 40 times and even though you're going to be really 156 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:07,920 efficient on a per attempt basis. 157 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:13,240 The the the overall counting stats were never there. 158 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:19,480 Do you do you think that I I guess it's it's a somewhat 159 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,760 nuanced point where we don't I I would agree with you where it's 160 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:26,240 it's hard to make the case that Brock Prudy would be fantasy 161 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:33,000 useful in an any other team but it is it also like I guess a bit 162 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:35,400 of an indictment on Jimmy G that. 163 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:40,240 He was used that differently or or am I just reading way into 164 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:43,040 that. No I I bet you you know like 165 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:46,240 like usual the truth probably lies somewhere in between right. 166 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:49,920 So I would say #1 I I did think Jimmy G was a pretty terrible 167 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:52,040 quarterback. You know all all the way through 168 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:55,040 and through. You know and and he always had 169 00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:57,800 been a product of a system. Right When he took over in New 170 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:01,440 England for that stretch it was it was another good system, a 171 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:05,280 good situation for him to be in where he could game manage his 172 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:07,840 way to wins. And then the same thing in San 173 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:10,480 Francisco. And you know the the one thing I 174 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:13,000 guess I could say about Jimmy G is he never had Christian 175 00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:16,240 McCaffrey like Brock Purdy does. But not that I think that he 176 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:18,560 would be putting up the Brock Purdy like numbers. 177 00:10:18,560 --> 00:10:22,640 I think you know Jimmy G might just be worse than Purdy but 178 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:25,040 that's I don't think that's saying very much. 179 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:28,200 So I I bet you that I'm probably a little biased against Purdy 180 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:32,000 just and I think it's like the opposite of the endowment 181 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:33,560 effect, right? Like I don't have very much 182 00:10:33,560 --> 00:10:35,400 Purdy. I didn't think Purdy was very 183 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:37,120 good. And so because I don't have very 184 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:39,520 much, I'm biased against him, but like. 185 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:44,440 Clearly and just just Sam that that's just some I guess non non 186 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:47,560 fantasy football technical term. So the endowment effect is that 187 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:52,360 something you have you value more than if you don't have it. 188 00:10:52,680 --> 00:10:55,400 And it's something that that's sort of like psychological 189 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:58,440 testing like. It's it's it's a reason It's 190 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:02,520 sort of like when somebody drafts A-Team and then they 191 00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:05,520 actually value the team more than anybody else. 192 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:10,880 But it's it's like it's it's also sort of like if somebody 193 00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:14,840 just gave you the team, gave you a team with Justin Jefferson, 194 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:19,120 then by you having Justin Jefferson, you value him more. 195 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:22,640 And it it's a bit counterintuitive, but it's a 196 00:11:22,680 --> 00:11:26,040 real thing, tested over over decades now. 197 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:31,840 I am and and and so maybe that's an over explanation but no I I 198 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:34,160 think that was good just for for anyone out there that was like 199 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:36,840 what is what is SAC talking about But that was that was my 200 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:40,840 first one the the Brock Purdy take just got to be good for 201 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:45,400 fantasy football going forward. The next one is and I'm just 202 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:47,520 going to say this one once and I'll never say it again for the 203 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:50,800 rest of the season but play Lamar Jackson every single week. 204 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:54,720 You know just like he's still sitting in that spot where it's 205 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:58,480 like Primo regression candidate and and what you're looking at 206 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:03,360 in in my opinion is he's like if you look at the size of his 207 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:06,680 bubble for like his rushing yards per game him and fields 208 00:12:06,680 --> 00:12:08,760 are basically the same in rushing yards. 209 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:13,640 But we know how good that Ravens offense is and we know how many 210 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:16,920 touchdowns they're capable of putting up and and really it's 211 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:20,960 just they keep getting. It's kind of like how David not 212 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:24,200 David Montgomery. It's kind of like how Jamal 213 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:26,960 Williams just got all of those touchdowns last year. 214 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:30,600 The Lions just had like chronic get taken down inside the five 215 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:33,880 itis last season right? And so Jamal Williams cleans up 216 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:35,760 all the scraps, gets a ton of touchdowns. 217 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:39,600 Lamar is kind of running into the opposite of that effect 218 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:42,880 where they keep getting down in these really you know close goal 219 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:46,720 to go situations and it's OK, Gus Edwards punch it in baby. 220 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:51,640 And so you know, all it takes is for some of these more explosive 221 00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:54,920 plays. Like for example the 68 yard Zay 222 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:59,440 Flowers pass that got called back on the Phantom holding this 223 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:01,160 this last week on Thursday night. 224 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:05,160 Like if that goes like Lamar's having a even more monster game, 225 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:08,240 like he had a good game, he has a monster game with that, right? 226 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:10,440 And. So, so just a comment on on on 227 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:15,440 sort of usability and so the Ravens next game is the Sunday 228 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,720 night game this weekend. Against the Chargers. 229 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:22,680 So I guess it's it, It's one of those weird things where it's 230 00:13:22,680 --> 00:13:27,520 going to be an island game. And I I I would really hate it 231 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:31,600 for all the sort of like DFS stuff if he if Lamar had his 232 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:35,320 monster game in an island game where you don't really get the 233 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:38,640 benefit of a of a on a mainsite. And then it's an island game 234 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:42,200 where he's probably going to be like insanely high oned. 235 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:47,080 Yeah, I would say just for for the my fellow showdown Bros out 236 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:49,200 there. I mean, you know at the end of 237 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:51,520 the day I'm just going to run my process and do what my process 238 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:55,240 tells me to do. But my very early brain player 239 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:59,000 take is I'm going to come in extremely overweight Lamar 240 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:02,480 Jackson captain. And then in the same vein, I'm 241 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:06,040 going to come in extremely overweight Gus Edwards captain 242 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:09,520 and just say that, you know, whichever way the game script 243 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:13,080 plays out in those kind of outlier type games or it's like, 244 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:14,920 Oh my gosh, Gus got all the touchdowns. 245 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:17,720 I'm set up well. And in the games where Lamar 246 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:20,960 explodes and Gus kind of gets starved out, I'm also set up 247 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:23,240 well. And then for those intermediate 248 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:27,040 kind of like Gus still got some and Lamar got some, I'll 249 00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:31,000 probably run some like Ravens onslaught type builds with both 250 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:34,720 Lamar and Gus and have whatever captains kind of make sense 251 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:36,200 there. I might, might even do that 252 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:41,160 with, like, you know, one or two Chargers with potentially a 253 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:44,440 Charger in the captain slot and then Lamar and Gus and the Flex. 254 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:47,680 But that's we're We're getting way too into the Showdown, 255 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:49,480 Rabbit. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. 256 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:52,440 You you got six days. You're 6 days from a showdown 257 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:54,200 site. I'm and what I I get it. 258 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:57,200 I get it. It's helpful for people to think 259 00:14:57,200 --> 00:15:01,520 about how how exactly how to play it. 260 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:06,840 How it it's it's usable. And then my my last quarterback 261 00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:11,400 take just from this chart, it's just that CJ Stroud is 262 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:13,920 absolutely him. I mean, we, I I think I've said 263 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:17,440 it like six weeks now, but this guy's so good. 264 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:20,560 I'm super excited to watch him for his career. 265 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:25,320 Like I I hope that Trevor Lawrence has more games like he 266 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:28,280 did this last week where he, and we've seen this from him in the 267 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:31,080 past where he sneaks in these couple rushing touchdowns and 268 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:34,120 he's efficient in the passing game too and he just goes off. 269 00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:38,320 I think you could end up with something really fun in the AFC 270 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:43,840 S between Anthony Richardson, Trevor Lawrence, CJ Stroud and 271 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:46,400 then you know, whatever bullshit the Titans end up doing. 272 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:50,440 But seems like that could be a really fun quarterback division 273 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:54,200 going forward. Might might come in way 274 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:55,880 overweight on that division in some way. 275 00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:57,680 Too early basketball type stuff, so. 276 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:03,680 Makes makes sense. And then I guess the other other 277 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:07,960 person worth calling out is a new a new addition to the chart 278 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:12,120 which is DT or who. I didn't even see him on the on 279 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:16,760 the first time I looked at it. Like, literally he he is in the 280 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:21,120 bottom left hand corner. Yeah, they didn't even let him. 281 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:23,720 They did not even let him drive the bus. 282 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:25,960 He was more so just pulling the wagon. 283 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:29,080 They didn't trust him behind the wheel of a motor vehicle, but 284 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:32,160 they're like, I mean we got to get somewhere so you can pull 285 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:35,960 this little wagon buddy. And yeah, that's that's the type 286 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:39,040 of play that we got from him. So not not really fantasy 287 00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:44,080 relevant. Yeah, and like what's 288 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:48,800 interesting there is So obviously we're what you call 289 00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:53,760 it, we only have one game from, but it was like what, 43 290 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:57,040 attempts? So it's not like it's like a 291 00:16:57,040 --> 00:17:02,480 sixteen attempt and then? Tiny sample size, like he played 292 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:05,000 a full game. He just played awful. 293 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,119 Yeah. From from what I watched, too, 294 00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:13,319 my my film grinder takes on it. He just he looks like the kind 295 00:17:13,319 --> 00:17:15,880 of passer that people were worried that Anthony Richardson 296 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:19,079 would be. Looks grossly inaccurate in 297 00:17:19,079 --> 00:17:22,400 spots. You know, I didn't even really 298 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:24,960 see him take very many deep shots down the field. 299 00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:28,079 So he's lacking that strength that Anthony Richardson has. 300 00:17:28,079 --> 00:17:31,080 He does have a little bit of juice in his legs, but I'm 301 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:34,840 pretty sure that that the Browns are a well coached team. 302 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:39,040 I I think that Stefanski knows what the team's strengths are 303 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:42,800 and they're going to do everything they can to hide DTR 304 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:45,440 and and just the way that they're going to be calling 305 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:48,400 those games is really going to be hard for him to produce any 306 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:52,000 kind of usable fantasy week. I mean you're you're pretty much 307 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:57,160 purely looking for some crazy rushing upside type game and I 308 00:17:57,160 --> 00:18:00,520 think the only way you get something like that is the 309 00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:03,720 Browns play against the team that's actually able to score on 310 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:09,160 their defense and stop the run and pressure the passer and take 311 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:11,080 away the short throw. So you're like you need to hit 312 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:14,480 like a five leg parlay for DTR to potentially have a ceiling 313 00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:17,560 and and even then then he still has to actually go out and and 314 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:19,920 rush. So I'm not interested. 315 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:26,640 Not, not, not interested. And and and we can talk about 316 00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:31,600 Brown's players later, but definitely take some of the some 317 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:34,560 not to do as much. Any mustard on the hot dog 318 00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:41,880 already, but even less now. Yeah, I think that's it for 319 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:43,560 quarterback. If you want to move on to the 320 00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:46,520 running back charts, 'cause we got four of those to get 321 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:49,000 through. Yeah, yeah. 322 00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:54,920 So this is our running back snaps and usage chart and we 323 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:58,280 have, we have rush attempts, we've routes, we pass blocks and 324 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:02,840 and running run blocks and those are all expressed as a 325 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:06,400 percentage of the team's overall plays. 326 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:11,120 And obviously we want rush attempts, but we also want route 327 00:19:11,120 --> 00:19:15,240 percentage because we we want players that are out there 328 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:17,120 running around. You can't get a check down 329 00:19:17,120 --> 00:19:20,000 unless you're out there running. You can't get a check down if 330 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:22,960 you're pass blocking and if you're not even pass blocking 331 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:27,600 then the the coaches don't even trust you on passing downs and 332 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:32,120 so so that that's sort of how this is set up and I I guess 333 00:19:32,120 --> 00:19:36,520 another note sorry to put you up this this is the the last four 334 00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:43,240 week average so week 8 through 11 it it is what we've got sorry 335 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:48,120 99 and sorry forgot the count 8 through 11. 336 00:19:48,120 --> 00:19:53,080 That's correct. Yeah and really just for me it's 337 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:57,200 my my biggest notes because again most of this stuff we you 338 00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:00,640 know we've we've gone over we've talked about you know these guys 339 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:03,400 roles and how they've kind of changed and crystallized over 340 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,800 the course of the season. There's really not. 341 00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:09,560 Too many huge movers or changes, so. 342 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:13,080 Expected that Devon Singletary is the workhorse. 343 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:16,080 But with 11, it's not. It's not even, it's not even 344 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:17,920 worth talking about. It's like just what? 345 00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,440 What do you expect? I mean, we talked about Devon 346 00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:21,680 Singletary the last couple weeks. 347 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:23,920 I know, I know he's your favorite player. 348 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:26,360 I know that for it's. Just so funny. 349 00:20:26,360 --> 00:20:29,720 I talk bad about Brock Purdy and good about Lamar. 350 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:31,640 You need to talk about Devon Singletary. 351 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,800 So so yes we can we can acknowledge that Devon 352 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:38,840 Singletary is getting an absurd amount of work and it looks like 353 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:42,960 you know even if even if Pierce plays this week, I would still 354 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:46,800 expect Devin Singletary to be the 1A in the backfield and 355 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:50,120 Pierce to take more of A1B roll I, you know, it's it's kind of 356 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:55,240 the coaching staff is not going to just throw that away and say 357 00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:58,120 all right Devin Singletary you're back to the you know, 358 00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:02,320 relegated to getting only a few touches roll he's he's going to 359 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:05,080 be getting the lion's share I would assume going forward. 360 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:13,160 The the things that I wanted to point out just for like ways 361 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:16,720 that you guys can apply this information going forward. 362 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:22,080 Last week we talked about the Saquan Barkley role and how he 363 00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:25,600 was kind of mispriced in Dog Bowl drafts, and I actually had 364 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:29,400 a couple different Saquan teams live for another Miami ticket. 365 00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:32,440 Unfortunately, I fell a little bit short. 366 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:36,560 I had a two teams where with one more Breeze Hall touchdown, I 367 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,120 could have potentially snuck. 2IN1 would have gotten in for 368 00:21:39,120 --> 00:21:40,480 sure. The other would have depended on 369 00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:43,400 the yardage with the Breeze Hall touchdown, but they had Saquan 370 00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:45,920 on them. They also had either Trevor 371 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:50,000 Lawrence or Calvin Ridley. Unfortunately, I didn't get that 372 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:53,400 combo on either of the teams that had Saquan and Tyreek on 373 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,160 them, which is what I would have needed to punch my ticket. 374 00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:59,480 But I think the the theme is the same this week. 375 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:03,720 So Saquan has moved up in the market a little bit this week. 376 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,320 You know, now that people have seen it recently, they're 377 00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:08,440 realizing, Oh yeah, the rule's still good. 378 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:11,800 I'm willing to click Saquan, but there's two guys who the market 379 00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:14,520 is just disrespecting so, so much right now. 380 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:18,440 I think I have one of them in every dog bowl draft I've done 381 00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:21,480 so far this week and I'm going to finish my drafts tonight for 382 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:24,000 the I'll be done for the week because I'm just going to get 383 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,840 these players right before they move up because they'll they'll 384 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:31,000 project well in ETR stuff and they're going to climb up you 385 00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:32,760 know in the market. But that's Josh Jacobs and 386 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:36,520 Rashad White and the roles are elite, elite for these guys. 387 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:40,800 They're so, so good. And people are are like, I feel 388 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:44,360 like people are scared off of Jacobs because he had a kind of 389 00:22:44,360 --> 00:22:47,160 bad game against Miami, you know, didn't get very much done. 390 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:50,600 And they're going to play the Chiefs, which is a good defense. 391 00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:56,200 But I mean, the role is just so good that, you know, I think 392 00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:59,120 that you just lean into it and you can get Jacobs in like the 393 00:22:59,120 --> 00:23:02,120 fourth round or you probably could get him in the fifth 394 00:23:02,120 --> 00:23:02,880 round. I wouldn't know. 395 00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:05,000 I just click him every time he gets to me in the fourth though. 396 00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:07,920 But yeah, people just don't want to click the guy. 397 00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:09,640 And then same thing with Rashad White. 398 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,680 Like Rashad White's role is so, so good. 399 00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:17,840 I believe, and correct me if this stat is incorrect, but I'm 400 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:21,440 pretty sure he is second in the NFL in receiving yards for 401 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:23,640 running backs only behind Christian McCaffrey. 402 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:27,120 And it's like guys, does anyone remember that we're supposed to 403 00:23:27,120 --> 00:23:30,280 care about you know, passing game work for running backs? 404 00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:32,080 Like that's that's the high value touch stuff. 405 00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:35,480 Like we we care about this and this guy's just doing it at an 406 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:39,000 elite level and people are just letting him go in like the 407 00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:43,320 fourth round in dog bowl drafts. So Josh Jacobs, Rashad White go 408 00:23:43,360 --> 00:23:45,640 get them while they're hot. They're going to move up. 409 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:47,440 But yeah, that's. I did. 410 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:52,480 I did Fact Check you right. So Christian McCaffrey number 411 00:23:52,480 --> 00:24:01,600 one with 364 receiving yards. Rashad White number two with 354 412 00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:03,720 receiving yards. So 10 lit. 413 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:06,440 Yeah. So that's yards than CMC. 414 00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:08,600 Yeah, so. So that's what I'm saying. 415 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:14,280 Like we have in our brains the bias from before the season of 416 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,440 Rashad White sucks and then the bias from the early part of the 417 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:21,200 season of Look, now we have data and Rashad whites inefficient 418 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:22,840 and he sucks. Guess what? 419 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:28,280 He could suck even worse than he had sucked, and if he gets this 420 00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:30,720 passing role, it doesn't matter. Like it? 421 00:24:31,120 --> 00:24:34,160 It couldn't matter less. Like, you could honestly take 422 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,680 away, like all of his expected points from rushing and he'd 423 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:39,640 still be a usable fantasy running back. 424 00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:42,400 He wouldn't be good, but he'd still be usable, you know? 425 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:46,320 So the receiving role is just too, too good to pass up there. 426 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:50,880 So absolutely love that. Both of those are super 427 00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:54,800 inefficient spots in the underdog VR streets. 428 00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,840 I I'm only doing dog bowl entries, so that's what's 429 00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:00,960 framing it for me. But just a heads up to the 430 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:05,600 people I don't. Let's see the other other 431 00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:09,360 interesting stuff this week, he got the Aaron Jones injury, but 432 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,440 and AJ Dillon's been slightly better. 433 00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:14,040 He's one of those other players where he had some stink on him 434 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:16,400 from earlier in the season from being really inefficient. 435 00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,240 He's still pretty inefficient, but he's been like a little bit 436 00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:24,000 better And so I would say, you know if you're in a pinch and 437 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:27,000 you need a running back start, give AJ Dillon a chance. 438 00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:29,440 I I don't think he's going to do anything terribly exciting for 439 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:31,920 you. But you know, I I think that 440 00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:35,400 he's he's. Certainly usable Are Are you 441 00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:37,640 talking about if Aaron Jones misses time? 442 00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:42,440 Or even if Aaron Jones plays, Aaron Jones is missing time is 443 00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:45,320 what I mean. I I would bet bet you dollars to 444 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:49,880 Donuts that he's missing time that that MCL sprain is gonna. 445 00:25:50,120 --> 00:25:52,600 I I don't think they're rushing it back from that there. 446 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,760 There's no like, what are they playing for, you know, like. 447 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:57,920 Right. Nothing, absolutely nothing. 448 00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:02,120 And the other thing, the OR one thing that I thought was sort of 449 00:26:02,120 --> 00:26:06,080 notable here was that even as David Montgomery comes back, 450 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:12,280 Gibbs is still, he's still got the the, the, the 1A shirt 451 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:14,760 touches. So if I just look at this week, 452 00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,760 he's on the field for 58% of snaps. 453 00:26:18,360 --> 00:26:24,960 And and as he was last week too. So I I guess unless David 454 00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:31,000 Montgomery has further to come back from injury and I don't, 455 00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,120 we're not going back to the way we were before. 456 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:38,960 I guess Montgomery is going to still be the the goal line and 457 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:42,240 back the predominant goal line back not all the time, but. 458 00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:48,200 This, this, this, this is a pretty it's a pretty 5050 split 459 00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:52,160 with Gibbs being the the the top end of the split. 460 00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:55,040 Yep. Yeah, very, very well put. 461 00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:58,160 And like you like to say, you know the genie is out of the 462 00:26:58,160 --> 00:26:59,960 bottle. You can't put the genie back in 463 00:26:59,960 --> 00:27:03,520 the bottle on Jamir Gibbs. And so one one thing that I'm 464 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:08,280 looking at is like kind of a a niche usability thing here is if 465 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:13,480 I ever see ADFS slate where the two Lions running backs are 466 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:17,480 cheap combined, like not, you know, Gibbs could be expensive 467 00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:19,560 and Montgomery's cheaper or Montgomery expensive, Gibbs 468 00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:21,280 cheaper. How it'll likely be going 469 00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:24,000 forward is that Gibbs ends up being priced higher than 470 00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,200 Montgomery. I think you probably need like 471 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,160 one or two more weeks to get a situation like I'm describing. 472 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:32,760 But if you ever get a spot where they're both cheap enough, I'm 473 00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:34,760 really, really excited to play both. 474 00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:38,360 I actually, I just talked about this with some people this week, 475 00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:43,200 but the Miami backfield situation, they were just a hair 476 00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,160 too expensive this week for me to do it. 477 00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,800 But I think if you between the two of them it was like most of 478 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:53,680 it was 6600 and a Chan was 60 or most of it was 69 and a Chan was 479 00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:56,440 66. I want to say if between the two 480 00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:59,920 of them they're about 1000 less, I think that's cheap enough 481 00:27:59,920 --> 00:28:04,000 where you play them both and you get a really, really interesting 482 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:07,040 spot because you're almost none of the field is going to play 483 00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,720 both of them. And so if you happen to catch 484 00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:12,480 one of those, you know lightning in a bottle weeks where they're 485 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:16,080 right like it gets going Broncos exactly you're you're going to 486 00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:19,600 shoot up the leaderboard. So I'm really interested in 487 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:23,760 backfields like that where the backfield can take all of the 488 00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:27,840 scoring for the week and and the team will still be moving the 489 00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:31,360 ball and productive on offense. It's not just oh, they ran that 490 00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:34,280 piss out of the ball like the Falcons want to and they only 491 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:37,160 scored two touchdowns. Like I'm looking for like the 492 00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:40,880 four or five kind of touchdown games where the backs get right. 493 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:43,000 All of them or all of them but one and. 494 00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:47,920 So, so, so just to just to to put a an even more actionable 495 00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:53,760 point on this, so the the lines are on the Turkey ball slate. 496 00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:59,960 And so then these sort of short slates are where it can make 497 00:28:59,960 --> 00:29:02,880 sense to to play boat running backs. 498 00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:07,040 So Gibbs is 6800, Montgomery is 6300. 499 00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:09,800 So we have a slate where Gibbs is more expensive. 500 00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:16,160 And I I feel, I feel like the the the cat is out of the bag a 501 00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:18,560 little bit in terms of like people understand that you can 502 00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:23,760 play boat running backs. In Showdown, and never mind that 503 00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:28,040 Showdown and these sort of true game slates, but yeah, on the 504 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:30,760 shorter slate, I think you gain less from it. 505 00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:35,280 But the way that I would probably do it for this, you 506 00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:38,440 know the three-game Thanksgiving slate is play both of the 507 00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:42,840 Detroit running backs and then just not have any other Lions on 508 00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:44,320 my team. And I'm really searching for 509 00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:47,960 that absolute ceiling outcome where the backs take all of the 510 00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:51,000 touchdowns. So that's that's probably how I 511 00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:53,400 would do it. But again, I think the benefit 512 00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,360 you're getting from that is a little diluted than what it 513 00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:59,640 would be on a full slate where you're going to get so much less 514 00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:01,640 of the field willing to play both running backs. 515 00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:04,040 Right. It it it's it's not going to be 516 00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:06,480 an unpopular build, right? Right. 517 00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:11,120 I had one other guy that I think we need to talk about here, Zach 518 00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:14,200 Charbonnet. It looks like he could be you 519 00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:18,960 know an end of season kind of hammer here with with Kenneth 520 00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:22,800 Walker dealing with that. You know what, what's been 521 00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:26,120 described as you know a potentially serious abdominal 522 00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:30,280 injury by Pete Carroll. You know, you might end up with 523 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:32,880 Charbonnet getting the vast majority of the work going 524 00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:38,240 forward and he's. I kind of want to it's, it's 525 00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:42,160 feels weird to compare him to another rookie because we just 526 00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:44,320 don't have a huge sample on either of these guys. 527 00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,800 But I kind of look at him in the same vein as Roshan Johnson, 528 00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:51,560 where they're both these like they're more like your classic 529 00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:57,200 workhorse type backs where they do everything well, but they're 530 00:30:57,200 --> 00:31:01,280 not great at any one thing. And they're they're big body, 531 00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:04,440 they're like they would be able to carry the full load if their 532 00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:05,960 offense wants to give it to them. 533 00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:10,040 And so I'm really interested in Chardonnay going forward and by 534 00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:12,240 extension I am a little interested in Roshan. 535 00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:18,080 Just with the injury to Deonta Foreman, obviously Chardonnay is 536 00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:21,000 in a much better spot because you know, now that Ken Walker's 537 00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:23,240 gone, he's, he's clearly the lead guy. 538 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,200 And with Roshan, you know you you still got him behind 539 00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:29,040 Herbert. But anyway, just Charbonnet. 540 00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:31,840 Definitely a a good one to keep an eye on going forward. 541 00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:37,160 Certainly interesting. Yeah, I think the the sentiment 542 00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,880 doesn't seem to be that Kenneth Walker is just done. 543 00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:47,080 So I I I think you probably still get, you probably still 544 00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:50,920 get in terms of season long stuff and not that he's going to 545 00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:58,200 be a waiver pick up, but. The consensus is probably more 546 00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:01,920 towards like a sort of spot start rather than like a a total 547 00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:09,080 end of the season every game guy but so but with with these 548 00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:12,880 injuries especially with the Seahawks you never know what the 549 00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:18,480 how good the reporting is how accurate it it is so that I 550 00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:21,600 guess that want to see Walker come back but that could be 551 00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:25,280 upside. And for the rest of the way for 552 00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:30,720 Charbonnet hi I wanted to ask you about Javonte Williams role 553 00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:33,800 going forward cause the previous game it kind of looked like it 554 00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:37,640 was starting to be wheels up for Javonte and that he might just 555 00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:41,360 run away and dominate the backfield and really squeeze out 556 00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:45,760 P Ryan and Julie McLaughlin. But in this last game, we saw P 557 00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:48,440 Ryan super involved in the passing game. 558 00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:54,120 And you know, if you were. The, the, the, the true down. 559 00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:57,560 Passing down and this, this and stuff went to P Rein. 560 00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:00,400 Yeah, and. And so I'm wondering, how do you 561 00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,120 feel about Javonte going forward? 562 00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:05,240 Do you think that last game was more indicative of what we're 563 00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:08,000 gonna see for the rest of the season, that somewhere in 564 00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:09,720 between the last two games? What? 565 00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:11,280 How? How do you feel about that? 566 00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:19,680 And so I think that it's it's hard, it's honestly really hard 567 00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:23,440 to tell game to game. With how these how these running 568 00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:26,360 backs are are going to be used because it's it. 569 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:31,080 It does seem very situational here where if you have a if you 570 00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:36,800 have a game where there's lots of clear it's lots of clear 571 00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:41,320 passing down back work that P Ryan does seem to be that guy 572 00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:45,200 for him. But then on the other hand you 573 00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:49,160 you can you can get games where there isn't there isn't that 574 00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:53,680 sort of like hurry up. Get back in the game stuff but a 575 00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:56,520 running back can still get very involved in the passing game. 576 00:33:57,040 --> 00:34:00,320 So I I I think it is one of those things where it's still 577 00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:03,520 going to be volatile week to week. 578 00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:11,199 I think that the backfield is is is I I think you had a good read 579 00:34:11,199 --> 00:34:14,560 on this early in the season where a a lot of this offense 580 00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:18,480 does run through the the running backs where even in the even in 581 00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:21,280 the passing game. They are targeting the running 582 00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:26,600 backs at a really high rate and then their running backs are are 583 00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:32,920 are they're also getting good good sort of goal line stuff. 584 00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:41,639 So I guess I I'm, I'm thinking more that and and maybe this is 585 00:34:41,639 --> 00:34:45,280 wishy washy, I'm I'm thinking more that you you you probably 586 00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:48,760 will get weeks where Javante gets a really high percentage of 587 00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:53,480 the stuff. But it it it has that volatility 588 00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:57,720 element where when there's like hurry up stuff and and and and 589 00:34:57,720 --> 00:35:01,320 two-minute drill stuff that they are going to get pre run 590 00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,200 involved there. So do you think it'd be fair to 591 00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:08,880 say that in games where the Broncos get out to a lead and 592 00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:11,920 and they're having a lot of success running it, those are 593 00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:15,120 the games where you'd be most likely to see like a big game 594 00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:16,720 from Javonte. Yeah. 595 00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:23,920 Yeah, I I I think that's fair. Quick, honorable mention DeAndre 596 00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:27,600 Swift had a great game. I didn't get to watch almost all 597 00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:31,440 of that game because I was, you know, trying to avoid Draco's 598 00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:35,160 assassination attempt with my my plane delay. 599 00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:38,480 But you know, Swift. Swift put up a good game there. 600 00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:41,960 You know, from what I I saw from highlights and things like that 601 00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:46,680 guy still looks explosive, you know, saw a little screen pass 602 00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:49,080 late in the fourth quarter from what I got to watch live. 603 00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:53,640 And yeah, he just, he looks like a really exciting back, you 604 00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:55,960 know, definitely someone that can deliver those spike weeks, 605 00:35:57,200 --> 00:36:00,800 you know, certainly as we start to transition towards playoff 606 00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:06,480 basketball, that's one where, yeah, I'm, I'm very interested 607 00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:08,560 in DeAndre Swift for that format. 608 00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:11,440 And then the last guy I wanted to talk about, he's clearly one 609 00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:13,120 of their best players. Yeah. 610 00:36:13,240 --> 00:36:17,600 Yep, 100% and just, man, I I know that. 611 00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:20,600 I know people like the Lions. I know they found a route for. 612 00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:22,760 I know we like Dan Campbell. Like I like Dan Campbell. 613 00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:27,480 I think the Lions are still the the Lions are. 614 00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:29,120 They're doing a lot of stuff, right? 615 00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:33,040 But man, if they could just plug these leaks of doing stupid shit 616 00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:35,440 with their draft capital and like getting rid of their best 617 00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:39,240 players. Because like man, can we can we 618 00:36:39,240 --> 00:36:43,280 get like some, some like relationship mediator into the 619 00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:46,040 Lions to like fix these relationships with some of their 620 00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:49,320 best players where like someone, someone gets off on the wrong 621 00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:51,200 foot with someone and they're just dead to the team. 622 00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:56,080 Like, I feel like the Lions have lit so much talent on fire over 623 00:36:56,080 --> 00:37:00,440 the last couple years where they would be such a stronger team if 624 00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:04,520 they had been able to manage their roster better. 625 00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:09,080 And who knows, I'm, I might just know, not be Privy to the locker 626 00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:12,760 room dynamics and what have you. But I just, I kind of see what 627 00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:15,040 the Lions have done with their roster, where they're getting 628 00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:18,480 rid of, you know, really quality players for basically nothing 629 00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:22,080 and spending extremely high draft capital on players to 630 00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:25,560 replace them. And just like, what if? 631 00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:28,840 What if we had? The roster management of going 632 00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:34,480 from Gibbs to Swift to Gibbs was particularly poor. 633 00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:37,560 Yeah, it's pretty. Just pretty just just to close 634 00:37:37,560 --> 00:37:41,120 the loop a little bit on my last comment, I'm looking at the 635 00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:46,240 rotaviz sort of pace tool. And so in Week 11, the Broncos 636 00:37:46,240 --> 00:37:51,480 had 18 plays where they were trailing by 7 or more and and 637 00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:56,280 and then Week 9 or 10. They didn't have any often 638 00:37:56,320 --> 00:38:00,600 offensive plays, obviously. So to me that that's a pretty 639 00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:03,120 extreme difference and and and that's where you're seeing that 640 00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:06,880 volatility that's a that's a great call out very, very sharp 641 00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:10,560 analysis there Draco glad glad for you to to point that one 642 00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:13,360 out. My my last guy that I wanted to 643 00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:16,880 touch on before we move to the next chart was just Tony Pollard 644 00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:22,040 you know decided to give us just enough to remain an enigma for 645 00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:26,800 us you know is Tony Pollard dust is Tony Pollard back still 646 00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:32,160 nobody knows and I I kind of I'll be interested to see the 647 00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:35,200 Tony Pollard price in playoff basketball that that's going to 648 00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:37,880 be another really interesting one to me. 649 00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:42,160 It's really going to yeah the the whole Cowboys offense is 650 00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:44,120 going to be very very interesting in playoff 651 00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:46,240 basketball. I think you can get some pretty 652 00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:52,600 cool stuff there and we'll I'll tease that we may be discussing 653 00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:57,200 that over at Legendary Upside and and how you can sort of take 654 00:38:57,200 --> 00:38:59,400 this strategy and apply it to playoff basketball going 655 00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:01,480 forward. But that was the last thing I 656 00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:03,240 had for this chart. Did you have anyone else you 657 00:39:03,240 --> 00:39:04,920 wanted to touch on before you move on Draco? 658 00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:08,640 No, no more than happy to keep them moving. 659 00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:13,040 And so now we have the the same chart, but it's the it's the 660 00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:15,640 backups. And again we're we're sort of 661 00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:20,280 looking at who who for backups is playing a high percentage of 662 00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:22,640 snaps on average over the last four weeks. 663 00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:27,800 I just kind of want to speed run this one. 664 00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:32,240 Yeah, I mean we know, we know Jalen Warren has had, you know 665 00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:34,200 some pretty explosive games lately. 666 00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:36,840 He had a a big breakaway touchdown run that contributed 667 00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:40,360 to a large amount of his fantasy production this last week. 668 00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:43,560 You know, he's looking exciting and with Matt Canada getting 669 00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:46,600 fired, you wonder if the offense could potentially take a step 670 00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:51,320 forward. I'm cautiously optimistic other 671 00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:54,000 you know Khalil Herbert coming back from injury looking like a 672 00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:57,240 pretty good spot there with the backfield potentially 673 00:39:57,240 --> 00:40:01,200 consolidating to just him and Roshan if Dante Foreman were to 674 00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:04,960 miss more time. You've got Gus Edward. 675 00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:07,560 The The Ravens backfield is starting to become a little bit 676 00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:12,320 more clear in that Justice Hill is losing work to Keaton 677 00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:15,520 Mitchell and has has squarely moved into. 678 00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:18,600 You know, not fantasy usable territory. 679 00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:19,360 Right. You drop them. 680 00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:23,280 Yeah, it It's not usable. RIP my Justice Hill bags. 681 00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:29,680 They seemed so good at week one. But alas, Justice Hill continues 682 00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:34,880 to to taunt me. So the other one, the one I want 683 00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:38,880 to point out to here is that Ty Chandler and even if you just 684 00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:44,640 look at last week, week 11 alone still only playing at 31% of 685 00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:47,720 the. On the snaps for the team so he 686 00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:52,440 he's definitely he's he's not a 1B but he's definitely like a 687 00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:56,920 backup with A roll which is a lot better than he was at the 688 00:40:56,920 --> 00:41:00,200 start of the season and and you're happy you're very happy 689 00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:04,120 with that if you got him and sort of airily in drop season in 690 00:41:04,120 --> 00:41:09,720 in in the last few rounds but and and and we're we're at we're 691 00:41:09,720 --> 00:41:13,160 still starting him and start chasing FFBC but. 692 00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:19,440 Even with the points that you got and I I guess just to call 693 00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:25,160 it out don't get too excited because the the snap share 694 00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:30,760 definitely right now it's not indicative of of sort of like 695 00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:35,400 what he what he's at what he scored and and and and I guess 696 00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:40,000 him playing well can always push him up more but he he's not 697 00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:43,200 there yet on a snap basis that's that's the only note that I 698 00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:46,600 would have on that that he looks very good you know he he clearly 699 00:41:46,600 --> 00:41:50,280 looks like the best back. Yeah and it's not like Oh well 700 00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:52,720 Madison does some things better and Chandler does some things 701 00:41:52,720 --> 00:41:56,320 better like Madison looks like all around the better player. 702 00:41:56,600 --> 00:42:01,800 And so you you know I I kind of look at this as like how rookies 703 00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:03,880 come on later in the season typically. 704 00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:07,080 Well now Chandler's finally getting his run and so if we can 705 00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:10,440 kind of look at these weeks as like his run up and ramp up 706 00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:15,280 period to a a larger role, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ty 707 00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:19,000 Chandler be the guy that you need in one of the the playoff 708 00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:21,760 weeks for best. Ball so I think they they were 709 00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:26,560 using him in pass blocking in sort of key situations at the 710 00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:31,680 end of the game and I did see one where he just got blown up 711 00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:37,280 like and and and it was like a bad play for the offense and so 712 00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:40,400 I I. I guess that that that gives me 713 00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:42,520 a little bit of concern that like how much are they going to 714 00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:44,280 pass them on on passing down stuff. 715 00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:53,040 But it's like you said Madison is not good and and and Ty 716 00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:56,040 Chandler is explosive. So you you just sort of hope 717 00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:57,880 that they see that and they lean into it. 718 00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:03,440 Yeah and my my last Ty Chandler note we you know everyone gave 719 00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:09,040 Evan Silva crap for the Madison touting over the summer but I I 720 00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:13,400 want people to remember he also had Ty Chandler way up in the 721 00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:15,000 rankings. He would he was kind of the 722 00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:19,040 first you know on the Ty Chandler frontier really really 723 00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:23,800 pumping him up and hey he he was correct on on the Ty Chandler 724 00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:26,360 call. So I think, I think we need to 725 00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:29,640 put put one in the West column for Evan Silva there on the the 726 00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:32,800 early Ty Chandler hype. Man just does not get enough 727 00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:33,720 wins. We got it. 728 00:43:33,720 --> 00:43:35,800 We got to shout him out on stop chasing. 729 00:43:39,240 --> 00:43:41,040 That was everything from the backup chart. 730 00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:44,800 Oh, slight interest in Ezekiel Elliott this week against the 731 00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:46,920 shitty New York Giants with Romandre. 732 00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:49,600 You know, potentially not at full strength with the back 733 00:43:49,600 --> 00:43:51,640 injury. I know that he he got cleared 734 00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:56,560 and the the back injury looks to be minor, but you never know, 735 00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:59,280 maybe maybe Zeke gets a little bit more. 736 00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:03,680 Of the of the touches this week and that Giants defense is not 737 00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:07,120 very formidable. So maybe this is your vintage 738 00:44:07,120 --> 00:44:10,520 Ezekiel Elliott game where he falls into the end zone twice 739 00:44:10,520 --> 00:44:18,040 and is fantasy relevant. Makes that That definitely seems 740 00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:21,680 like a possibility, except for the Patriots will never be 741 00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:23,320 anywhere near the end zone twice. 742 00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:26,760 They might get near the end zone once, so he could fall in once 743 00:44:29,080 --> 00:44:32,160 so. Now we have the turd over 4. 744 00:44:32,720 --> 00:44:36,520 Running back charts and and this is expected points in efficiency 745 00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:41,280 and we have rushing expected points and receiving expected 746 00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:45,360 points and then the size of the bubble is a corset bonds to 747 00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:48,680 their points over expected and and two notes that I like to 748 00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:53,520 make on this chart is one. We have this split up into two 749 00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:56,200 charts. We often get comments Oh hey, so 750 00:44:56,200 --> 00:45:00,000 and so isn't on your chart. How come we split it up? 751 00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:03,960 Because if you put them all onto the same chart, it just gets so 752 00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:07,080 bunched together. And so we have it, we have it 753 00:45:07,080 --> 00:45:11,520 set up so that you're getting 2 readable charts basically. 754 00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:16,640 And second note is that I I think is important is that just 755 00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:20,720 because it's over expected, it's it. 756 00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:25,120 It doesn't always mean that the player played well, like good 757 00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:30,240 play is almost always efficient. And bad play is almost always 758 00:45:30,240 --> 00:45:36,120 inefficient, but you're also that you're using the error term 759 00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:40,200 in in in sort of fantasy football model to correspond to 760 00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:44,160 efficiency. And so sometimes that's not 761 00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:47,360 always quite correct. So things to keep in mind, 762 00:45:48,080 --> 00:45:51,840 things like a player scoring a touchdown on an attempt is 763 00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:55,680 always going to be something that goes over expected, because 764 00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:59,120 there's no attempt where a player has a 100% probability of 765 00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:02,280 scoring A touchdown, right? So every time you actually score 766 00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:07,080 a touchdown, you're going to go over expected unless unless you 767 00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:10,400 have like 6 other carries where you didn't score a touchdown, 768 00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:14,800 where you should have right one couple and then the other. 769 00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:16,760 Note is. I guess on that is like. 770 00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:21,520 Another example of of a play where it would be points over 771 00:46:21,520 --> 00:46:26,200 expected but maybe not good. Everybody remembers that Austin 772 00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:30,320 Eckler run where he went for 30 of the slowest yards we've ever 773 00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:32,920 seen. That that's a that's a a 774 00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:38,960 positive fantasy but points over expected play and but is that 775 00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:42,320 him playing well? Like did he get, did he actually 776 00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:44,600 perform what he should have done on that play? 777 00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:46,400 I I would say no. No. 778 00:46:46,400 --> 00:46:49,240 Yeah that that should have been a breakaway touchdown and that 779 00:46:49,240 --> 00:46:51,360 one. That was honestly the play that 780 00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:55,320 made me the most sad, 'cause like I you I want to root for 781 00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:57,800 Austin Eckler. He's a super cool guy. 782 00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:00,400 Like he he's just he's one of the good ones. 783 00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:02,240 You know like there's a lot of guys in the league where you're 784 00:47:02,240 --> 00:47:05,760 not excited to root for him but he's he's one you're you're 785 00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:08,600 happy to root for. And I was just sad cause for me 786 00:47:08,600 --> 00:47:12,560 that felt like, OK that like this is some pretty strong 787 00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:15,320 signal that this guy is, is pretty close to dusted. 788 00:47:15,320 --> 00:47:18,240 Yeah. So I'll, I'll go ahead and say 789 00:47:18,240 --> 00:47:21,320 like if Eckler's going really anywhere in the first two rounds 790 00:47:21,320 --> 00:47:24,400 next season, I'll probably have like very close to 0. 791 00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:26,680 And I I had pretty close to 0 this season. 792 00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:30,400 But I'm, I'm feeling good about my stand. 793 00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:33,160 I'm feeling sad about it. But I feel like it was the 794 00:47:33,160 --> 00:47:35,800 correct decision in the game that we play. 795 00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:40,600 Yeah, the first, first guy I wanted to call out, he he's like 796 00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:43,000 one of my favorite players to talk about on this chart. 797 00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:46,800 I've mentioned him many times, but Breece Hall, you can see is 798 00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:50,480 is getting so much more of his expected points from the 799 00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:55,160 receiving game right now. And really what you're looking 800 00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:59,040 at if you watch these Jets games, they they've started to 801 00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:02,720 realize we can't move the ball, the offense sucks. 802 00:48:02,800 --> 00:48:06,240 Zach Wilson sucks. I'll go go back to the previous 803 00:48:06,240 --> 00:48:09,520 chart. Oh mind mind bond. 804 00:48:09,640 --> 00:48:12,640 You're you're good. And so they've really started 805 00:48:12,640 --> 00:48:15,840 dialing up these little screen passes to Breece or these little 806 00:48:15,840 --> 00:48:20,800 like late release dump off type passes to him in in the last in 807 00:48:20,800 --> 00:48:25,120 this last game this weekend I saw at least two times where 808 00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:29,200 Zach Wilson failed to execute a screen pass that now now listen 809 00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:33,080 like I'm going to go ahead and say like I can't do anything 810 00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:35,640 that any of these guys on NFL field can do. 811 00:48:36,040 --> 00:48:38,720 But I actually think that in these two screen passes that 812 00:48:38,720 --> 00:48:41,400 this guy fucked up. I could have gone out there and 813 00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:43,600 gotten the ball to breeze. I would have gotten blown up. 814 00:48:43,600 --> 00:48:46,840 I would have died you know like I'm I'm 100% dead after taking a 815 00:48:46,840 --> 00:48:49,480 hit. But they were just it was the 816 00:48:49,480 --> 00:48:53,640 stupidest fucking absolute no ability to process. 817 00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:57,400 You know the the game going on around you that I've ever seen 818 00:48:57,400 --> 00:49:01,400 from a quarterback on an NFL field where it's it's exactly 819 00:49:01,400 --> 00:49:05,280 what you want from a screenplay. Like everyone on the defense is 820 00:49:05,280 --> 00:49:07,880 in the backfield. All you need to do is just like 821 00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:10,080 lay it up over the top of the defenders. 822 00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:14,000 It's not like sometimes the screen gets blown up right where 823 00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:16,160 the defenders pick up on what's going on. 824 00:49:16,280 --> 00:49:19,480 Someones hugging Breece Hall, they're not gonna, he's just not 825 00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:22,200 getting this right, Right. But that wasn't the case. 826 00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:25,960 Like they had a convoy down field for him ready to go 827 00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:28,960 Breece's wide ass open with no one next to him. 828 00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:32,360 And Zach Wilson is doing this little like double clutch. 829 00:49:32,360 --> 00:49:34,360 I'm not sure if I should throw this or not. 830 00:49:34,360 --> 00:49:39,200 Bullshit and taking a sack or like throwing the ball away on 831 00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:41,480 what should be. I mean one of them looked like 832 00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:44,680 to me like this is a breeze house call which was especially 833 00:49:44,680 --> 00:49:48,120 tilting as someone for someone who is sitting there with two 834 00:49:48,120 --> 00:49:50,960 dog bowl teams that would have catapulted into the top three 835 00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:57,640 with a long breeze touchdown. There with Tim Boyle in in in 836 00:49:57,640 --> 00:50:02,800 the seat all you need you don't need much at all it can my my 837 00:50:02,800 --> 00:50:07,080 biggest question is, is Tim Boyle more capable of executing 838 00:50:07,080 --> 00:50:10,920 a screen pass than ZAP Wilson. That's literally all I need and 839 00:50:10,920 --> 00:50:14,880 and I would say that Bruce has the ability to, I don't think 840 00:50:14,880 --> 00:50:18,760 his expected fantasy points will increase very much but I think 841 00:50:18,760 --> 00:50:20,520 that you could see his efficiency increase 842 00:50:20,520 --> 00:50:23,880 substantially because he's he's a home run player you know 843 00:50:23,880 --> 00:50:26,320 you're just you just need to get him the opportunities to hit 844 00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:30,560 that home run especially I did. See that, Tim Boyle. 845 00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:34,640 The last time he had a season where he threw more touchdowns 846 00:50:34,640 --> 00:50:37,120 and interceptions was high school. 847 00:50:37,360 --> 00:50:40,640 He never had a good college season. 848 00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:45,560 Yeah, he hasn't looked great. So you know, with this iteration 849 00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:48,640 of The Jets offense, where their offensive line is in shambles, 850 00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:52,240 they have no they have nothing approaching like, you know, 851 00:50:52,240 --> 00:50:56,800 competent NFL quarterback play. You know, you're really just 852 00:50:56,800 --> 00:50:59,680 hoping for. Can can the quarterback actually 853 00:50:59,680 --> 00:51:02,200 deliver the running back the ball on takedowns for? 854 00:51:02,560 --> 00:51:04,560 How much worse than Zach Wilson can he be? 855 00:51:04,640 --> 00:51:07,920 He can exactly, yeah. And and and hopefully he's he's 856 00:51:07,920 --> 00:51:11,400 he's marginally better. Other guys I wanted to call out 857 00:51:11,400 --> 00:51:13,360 on this chart. I mean, we talked about Gibbs, 858 00:51:13,360 --> 00:51:16,560 but yeah, he's he's looking really strong going forward. 859 00:51:18,000 --> 00:51:21,160 I would expect as we get a couple more of these games to 860 00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:24,720 fall off, like the ones where Gibbs had some just monster 861 00:51:24,720 --> 00:51:29,040 usage, like the Ravens game comes to mind, where he just had 862 00:51:29,280 --> 00:51:31,160 an absurd, absurd amount of usage. 863 00:51:31,440 --> 00:51:36,200 I bet we see him land just behind this 20 expected fantasy 864 00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:38,800 points. He'll be in the top tier of this 865 00:51:38,800 --> 00:51:40,920 15 to 20 expected fantasy points range. 866 00:51:41,120 --> 00:51:44,040 I think that's probably where he truly lies and how he finishes 867 00:51:44,040 --> 00:51:46,640 out the season. But you know, one of the better 868 00:51:46,640 --> 00:51:49,560 fantasy running backs to have looking really, really strong 869 00:51:50,920 --> 00:51:54,640 and then so. And if you just look at week 10 870 00:51:54,800 --> 00:52:00,440 and 11, he's he's he's still like 20.8 over the last two 871 00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:02,440 weeks. Expected points again. 872 00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:04,720 OK. Yeah, I I. 873 00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:07,120 I don't know if that's I don't know if that's carries forward 874 00:52:07,200 --> 00:52:11,800 but definitely bullish yeah I I certainly not wanting to to 875 00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:16,520 throw any cold water on Jamir Gibbs but yeah I I just think 876 00:52:16,520 --> 00:52:20,400 with how he how he finishes on this chart he'll probably come 877 00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:23,080 down just a tiny bit but I I would not be surprised at all 878 00:52:23,080 --> 00:52:25,960 for him to hover right around that 20 expected fantasy point 879 00:52:25,960 --> 00:52:29,280 number but you know who he's right next to is the guy that we 880 00:52:29,280 --> 00:52:32,040 brought up that no one's putting respect on his name is Rashad 881 00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:35,160 White. Like I mean you you poo poo at 882 00:52:35,160 --> 00:52:38,960 all you want but like the role is just so good that you know 883 00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:40,520 Rashad White is going to get his. 884 00:52:40,520 --> 00:52:46,960 So I I'm just I'm I'm past the point of you know being out on 885 00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:49,480 Rashad White. Like the role is there give me 886 00:52:49,480 --> 00:52:52,480 Rashad White. I'll I'll happily bank the level 887 00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:54,920 of consistency that is giving you week in and week out. 888 00:52:56,320 --> 00:53:02,480 Yeah, yeah, especially, yeah. Especially at discounts like I I 889 00:53:02,480 --> 00:53:06,040 I don't, I'm not I'm not like draft him in the fifth round 890 00:53:06,120 --> 00:53:08,920 next year or anything like that, which is where I think his his 891 00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:11,760 role profile that someone he should be taking him in like the 892 00:53:11,760 --> 00:53:16,680 fourth or fifth round but in in in week to week stuff and you're 893 00:53:16,680 --> 00:53:20,000 getting like a big discount. It's a no brainer. 894 00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:22,160 Yeah. I I think the way that I want to 895 00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:26,440 play the Bucks backfield next season, you know, provided not 896 00:53:26,440 --> 00:53:29,440 too much changes there. Say Baker still the quarterback, 897 00:53:29,440 --> 00:53:32,480 Canals is still offensive coordinator Rashad White still 898 00:53:32,480 --> 00:53:35,080 on the roster and you know you got a couple of the other 899 00:53:35,080 --> 00:53:37,160 running backs that are currently on the roster still there. 900 00:53:37,560 --> 00:53:41,240 If they add any kind of rookie talent at the running back 901 00:53:41,240 --> 00:53:45,640 position that I'm excited for and and you can get them, you 902 00:53:45,640 --> 00:53:49,680 know, relatively cheap, I'm going to hit that pretty hard. 903 00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:53,600 And if Rashad White's expensive, like if he's in that that true 904 00:53:53,600 --> 00:53:58,080 kind of dead zone, it it, you know, to me it seems like if he 905 00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:01,800 was going in the 4th and 5th round this season we wouldn't we 906 00:54:01,800 --> 00:54:03,880 wouldn't be talking about him so so fondly. 907 00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:07,400 He still would be doing fine, but it's it's because he was 908 00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:11,080 going in, you know, the 8th, 9th round that makes him so good for 909 00:54:11,080 --> 00:54:15,840 this season. Right, right. 910 00:54:15,960 --> 00:54:19,240 Yeah, agreed, agreed. And. 911 00:54:20,680 --> 00:54:24,720 Just I I I guess just just a note that like there's a I I'm 912 00:54:24,720 --> 00:54:27,760 just trying to note that there's a difference between somebody's 913 00:54:27,760 --> 00:54:35,320 like over a long term season profile versus like game to 914 00:54:35,320 --> 00:54:39,080 game. Like you, you can feel pretty 915 00:54:39,080 --> 00:54:44,320 good about Rashad White's role game to game and and and 916 00:54:44,320 --> 00:54:46,640 probably for the rest of the year now that we have the the 917 00:54:46,640 --> 00:54:50,680 sample that we do but. He he, I I think he still 918 00:54:50,680 --> 00:54:54,160 profiles as somebody where you know that could easily all go 919 00:54:54,160 --> 00:54:57,440 away. Yeah absolutely he's he's what 920 00:54:57,440 --> 00:55:00,880 I've I've heard people refer to as a a churn back in the NFL. 921 00:55:00,880 --> 00:55:03,760 He there's nothing all that special about him. 922 00:55:04,360 --> 00:55:08,080 You know, he's he's just a placeholder until a more 923 00:55:08,080 --> 00:55:11,400 talented running back comes along on the roster and takes 924 00:55:11,400 --> 00:55:14,080 his job. And so if no one's there to take 925 00:55:14,080 --> 00:55:17,760 his job next season, then you can probably take him with at 926 00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:19,800 least some degree of confidence that'll have a good role. 927 00:55:19,800 --> 00:55:23,800 Again, you know all other things remaining consistent, but if you 928 00:55:23,800 --> 00:55:27,400 get anyone that looks like they might be able to push him from a 929 00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:29,680 talent perspective, that's that's where I'm going to go. 930 00:55:29,680 --> 00:55:35,400 Elsewhere. OK, so let's let's move on to 931 00:55:35,400 --> 00:55:37,200 where we lost that running back chair. 932 00:55:43,240 --> 00:55:46,200 Anybody here stick at you that that we haven't sort of. 933 00:55:47,200 --> 00:55:49,600 I'm I'm like a little interested. 934 00:55:50,240 --> 00:55:53,640 So this guy's been trending in the wrong direction for the last 935 00:55:53,640 --> 00:55:57,080 few weeks. But I'm wondering if potentially 936 00:55:57,080 --> 00:56:00,600 this week I think it really depends on the quarterback 937 00:56:00,600 --> 00:56:03,240 situation on his team. But Alvin Kamara, you know, we 938 00:56:03,240 --> 00:56:06,240 saw he came out of the gate just extremely hot. 939 00:56:06,600 --> 00:56:09,520 You know, never never had good rushing efficiency even in his 940 00:56:09,520 --> 00:56:11,760 first couple weeks back. But was just having such an 941 00:56:11,760 --> 00:56:15,880 insane role in the receiving game with Derek Carr cap and 942 00:56:15,880 --> 00:56:18,480 check down now you got Carr injured. 943 00:56:18,960 --> 00:56:22,160 It's uncertain if he's going to play this week or not if it's 944 00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:27,600 Jameis I think I'm pretty out on Kamara just because Jameis is he 945 00:56:27,600 --> 00:56:30,200 he's just going to sling it man. He he's not about that check 946 00:56:30,200 --> 00:56:34,880 down life but if you get Carr coming off of an injury where he 947 00:56:34,880 --> 00:56:38,880 might be even a little more timid than usual I I could see 948 00:56:39,120 --> 00:56:43,080 you know this being one of those like Kamara gets 13 targets type 949 00:56:43,080 --> 00:56:46,440 of week. The other thing on the other 950 00:56:46,440 --> 00:56:51,280 side of the coin with respect to Kamara say that car is out. 951 00:56:51,680 --> 00:56:55,400 How do you feel about Taysom Hill this week for Fantasy? 952 00:56:57,240 --> 00:57:02,760 And what format? Let's first let's talk about a 953 00:57:02,760 --> 00:57:04,680 format where you can play him as a tight end. 954 00:57:07,440 --> 00:57:13,040 And so you're talking about Jameis is playing and. 955 00:57:14,040 --> 00:57:18,360 You can you can you have to play Taysom as a tight end. 956 00:57:19,880 --> 00:57:23,240 I mean he's not terrible. It it it that really does depend 957 00:57:23,240 --> 00:57:30,360 on on who else is there on the on the slave 2 and so I I mean 958 00:57:30,960 --> 00:57:33,640 he's always going to be in play for two or three touch for a two 959 00:57:33,640 --> 00:57:36,400 or three touchdown game. So when he's cheap with low 960 00:57:36,400 --> 00:57:41,080 ownership like he's he's where to play but. 961 00:57:43,040 --> 00:57:45,760 I I I definitely like playing real tight ends over Taysom 962 00:57:45,800 --> 00:57:47,440 Hill. Yeah. 963 00:57:47,440 --> 00:57:54,080 I for me if it's Jameis playing this week, I just I think that 964 00:57:54,080 --> 00:57:56,560 the Saints staff knows what Jameis is. 965 00:57:56,560 --> 00:57:58,960 They know that this dude is going to get out here and just 966 00:57:59,040 --> 00:58:02,560 absolutely rip it and sling it with reckless abandoned. 967 00:58:03,160 --> 00:58:07,960 And I I've got a they just got a hunch that if they get in close 968 00:58:07,960 --> 00:58:11,480 you know in the Green Zone it's not going to be Jameis taking 969 00:58:11,480 --> 00:58:14,600 snaps there like they don't they don't want gunslinger Jameis 970 00:58:14,680 --> 00:58:18,520 down there taking risks when they're in close when they have 971 00:58:18,600 --> 00:58:20,720 a weapon that they know. I mean they've, they've been 972 00:58:20,720 --> 00:58:24,320 deploying Taysom with Derek Carr down there and I I think right. 973 00:58:24,880 --> 00:58:28,360 He's a good offensive weapon or actually red zone weapon. 974 00:58:28,840 --> 00:58:31,160 Yeah. So and and also they've been 975 00:58:31,160 --> 00:58:33,760 showing that they're not as confident in Kamara's rushing 976 00:58:33,760 --> 00:58:35,840 ability. You know Jamal Williams has been 977 00:58:35,840 --> 00:58:37,880 doing nothing. Kendra's injured. 978 00:58:37,880 --> 00:58:42,040 So I I think you could get one of the true you know full on 979 00:58:42,040 --> 00:58:46,120 utility games from Taysom where he you know rushes 6 times, 980 00:58:46,120 --> 00:58:49,120 catches 3 passes and throws a couple passes. 981 00:58:49,120 --> 00:58:53,960 I so like in a in a large field GPP, I'm probably going to come 982 00:58:53,960 --> 00:58:57,600 in extremely overweight taste some I I really like the game 983 00:58:57,600 --> 00:59:01,800 environment too. So just that was that was my 984 00:59:01,800 --> 00:59:04,880 note on Kamara and that whole Saints situation. 985 00:59:04,880 --> 00:59:09,440 There, Yeah, it makes makes sense for sure. 986 00:59:09,960 --> 00:59:13,840 Makes sense for sure and do like seeing even though I had that 987 00:59:13,840 --> 00:59:18,560 note about Tai Chandler, his snap share not being great, it 988 00:59:18,560 --> 00:59:22,080 does look like even though the snap share is a low. 989 00:59:22,720 --> 00:59:27,720 He is getting the ball quite a lot when he's on the field which 990 00:59:27,720 --> 00:59:34,760 is which is helpful. So like do like seeing him being 991 00:59:34,760 --> 00:59:37,560 at over 10 expected points despite like only playing a 992 00:59:37,560 --> 00:59:41,800 third of the snap and and some players are like that where I I 993 00:59:41,800 --> 00:59:44,200 guess it caps their upside a little bit that they're not 994 00:59:44,200 --> 00:59:48,000 trust trusted when they're not getting the ball, but this 995 00:59:48,280 --> 00:59:50,080 despite getting a low snap share. 996 00:59:50,840 --> 00:59:54,720 Getting the ball when they are on the field, so maybe maybe a 997 00:59:54,720 --> 00:59:59,640 little bit better done than I was sort of talking about 998 00:59:59,640 --> 01:00:05,120 earlier. The I mean this. 999 01:00:05,120 --> 01:00:08,360 This isn't really terribly fantasy relevant or actionable. 1000 01:00:08,360 --> 01:00:11,280 I'm not going to tell anyone stuff they don't know, but is 1001 01:00:11,360 --> 01:00:13,920 Christian McCaffrey is now the only running back that would be 1002 01:00:13,920 --> 01:00:16,400 live to put up a true legendary season. 1003 01:00:16,400 --> 01:00:19,000 Is that pretty? Pretty correct. 1004 01:00:19,440 --> 01:00:22,680 Yeah, I think so. I think we're, we're definitely 1005 01:00:22,680 --> 01:00:26,440 in play for like one of those weird running back years. 1006 01:00:26,840 --> 01:00:29,200 Yeah. It's just, yeah, I mean the way 1007 01:00:29,200 --> 01:00:33,200 that it's ran out this year is you pretty much wanted to just 1008 01:00:33,200 --> 01:00:36,280 never draft a running back. You know, you just you wanted to 1009 01:00:36,280 --> 01:00:39,720 take them, you know almost as late as possible. 1010 01:00:39,720 --> 01:00:42,640 Yeah. Only when absolutely necessary. 1011 01:00:42,640 --> 01:00:46,520 And you know partially that's because this year was a little 1012 01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:49,560 bit of an aberration. But I think in general this year 1013 01:00:49,560 --> 01:00:54,800 is really illustrative of the whole thesis of going heavy at 1014 01:00:54,800 --> 01:00:58,280 wide receiver which is a much more talent driven position than 1015 01:00:58,280 --> 01:01:02,520 running back which is a much more volume driven position and 1016 01:01:02,520 --> 01:01:05,760 and just relying on the chaos of the season to get you what you 1017 01:01:05,760 --> 01:01:09,640 need at running back. And the the the points 1018 01:01:09,640 --> 01:01:11,800 leaderboard for earning back is is. 1019 01:01:12,920 --> 01:01:16,120 Honestly, Shocking. So CMC number one, he's gotten 1020 01:01:16,120 --> 01:01:22,640 that 20 points a game. PPR #2 is Raheem Monster #3. 1021 01:01:22,640 --> 01:01:26,040 Travis Etienne For Brian Robinson. 1022 01:01:26,680 --> 01:01:32,880 Gus Edwards Like Kenneth Walker. Josh Jacobs, Gander Swift, David 1023 01:01:32,880 --> 01:01:36,840 Montgomery. Who's missed, like many games. 1024 01:01:37,560 --> 01:01:43,880 #10. Is Zach Moss like running back 1025 01:01:43,880 --> 01:01:48,080 is just unplayable this season? Like, honestly, people that 1026 01:01:48,080 --> 01:01:50,280 could keep. Going But that gives you a 1027 01:01:50,280 --> 01:01:52,840 flavor. People have talked about abolish 1028 01:01:52,840 --> 01:01:54,960 the tight end position for fantasy football. 1029 01:01:54,960 --> 01:01:56,480 I'm going to be the first one to say it. 1030 01:01:56,480 --> 01:01:58,840 Abolish running back. Don't make me play these guys. 1031 01:01:58,840 --> 01:02:02,560 It's just give me, give me wide receiver leagues with flex. 1032 01:02:02,560 --> 01:02:05,480 Like, give me, give me 3 wide receiver spots I got to fill and 1033 01:02:05,480 --> 01:02:08,320 three flex spots I got to fill. Like, don't make me draft any 1034 01:02:08,320 --> 01:02:09,560 running backs if I don't want to. 1035 01:02:10,440 --> 01:02:13,360 Like Zach Moss or B10 on the year. 1036 01:02:15,720 --> 01:02:18,720 Yeah it's it. I mean and and just that you 1037 01:02:18,720 --> 01:02:22,400 know that kind of distribution really shows you why the teams 1038 01:02:22,400 --> 01:02:26,800 that spent so little in running back capital are successful 1039 01:02:27,080 --> 01:02:29,920 because none of the early running backs are are beating 1040 01:02:29,920 --> 01:02:33,360 you like it doesn't matter you could have you know someone 1041 01:02:33,360 --> 01:02:37,480 putting up you know next to no points is going to be like RB15 1042 01:02:37,480 --> 01:02:42,200 if you got some usable weeks. It it's just it's crazy and and 1043 01:02:42,200 --> 01:02:44,920 you're not gaining anything from the capital that you spent early 1044 01:02:44,920 --> 01:02:48,320 at the position. So it'll be really interesting 1045 01:02:48,320 --> 01:02:51,680 to see how this, the best ball playoffs shake out because I 1046 01:02:51,680 --> 01:02:55,440 think what this kind of distribution is going to lead to 1047 01:02:55,880 --> 01:02:59,160 is you're going to have pretty spread out ownerships for 1048 01:02:59,160 --> 01:03:02,400 running back when we get into the best ball playoffs. 1049 01:03:03,120 --> 01:03:07,280 And so it's going to be really, really interesting to see you 1050 01:03:07,280 --> 01:03:10,960 know if that ultimately consolidated, you know when we 1051 01:03:10,960 --> 01:03:14,720 get to the finals or or how that shakes out or if you if you get 1052 01:03:14,720 --> 01:03:18,000 these, you know, dominant CMC games in the fantasy play offs, 1053 01:03:18,280 --> 01:03:21,440 it might just be like a no CMC, no money kind of year. 1054 01:03:21,440 --> 01:03:24,640 So really, really interested to see how that shakes out. 1055 01:03:24,640 --> 01:03:27,200 I did want to touch on Travis Etienne who you mentioned at the 1056 01:03:27,200 --> 01:03:31,560 top of that list. We've seen he's had you know 2 1057 01:03:31,720 --> 01:03:36,800 less than great games recently here won against the 49ers with 1058 01:03:36,800 --> 01:03:39,760 a really strong defensive performance coming off there by 1059 01:03:40,560 --> 01:03:43,200 and then last week where Trevor Lawrence hogged all the 1060 01:03:43,200 --> 01:03:47,080 touchdowns. But he's he looks to be getting 1061 01:03:47,080 --> 01:03:52,600 a little less work recently and it's it's more so just because I 1062 01:03:52,600 --> 01:03:56,800 feel like they finally realized that Tank Bigsby, they got 1063 01:03:56,800 --> 01:04:00,640 bamboozled by the name Tank and that this isn't an NFL player in 1064 01:04:00,640 --> 01:04:04,520 the slightest and they need to use Jernis Johnson, who is an 1065 01:04:04,520 --> 01:04:06,760 NFL player. He's he's a backup running back, 1066 01:04:06,760 --> 01:04:08,600 but he's actually an NFL backup running back. 1067 01:04:08,960 --> 01:04:13,280 Tank Digsby is like, you know a a practice squad kind of guy. 1068 01:04:13,360 --> 01:04:16,960 So right I'm, I'm a little concerned. 1069 01:04:16,960 --> 01:04:20,760 I know that you and I have both been really high on ETN, but a 1070 01:04:20,760 --> 01:04:23,840 big part of that was how elite his role was and I. 1071 01:04:23,840 --> 01:04:25,720 Think and how bad his backup was. 1072 01:04:26,160 --> 01:04:28,520 Yeah. We're starting to see enough of 1073 01:04:28,520 --> 01:04:33,680 that get siphoned away that in my kind of like tearing of the 1074 01:04:33,680 --> 01:04:36,120 running backs. I think I'm moving ETN down a 1075 01:04:36,120 --> 01:04:39,080 tier. This is a a comparison that I 1076 01:04:39,080 --> 01:04:41,720 wanted your opinion on that I was I was kind of thinking about 1077 01:04:41,720 --> 01:04:46,800 here Jonathan Taylor and ETN go very close in the dog bowl this 1078 01:04:46,800 --> 01:04:49,440 week. Who would you prefer to take 1079 01:04:49,880 --> 01:04:51,640 just in a vacuum you're on the clock. 1080 01:04:51,640 --> 01:04:54,200 It's near the you know. Yeah right. 1081 01:04:54,200 --> 01:04:57,120 That's what I'm saying. And like going away right 1082 01:04:57,120 --> 01:04:58,480 though. The role is so much. 1083 01:04:59,200 --> 01:05:03,720 And The funny thing is Zach Moss is probably a better player than 1084 01:05:03,720 --> 01:05:07,880 Darren S Johnson. But the Colts are like, Nope, we 1085 01:05:07,880 --> 01:05:10,600 paid JTA bunch of money, so we got to give him the rock. 1086 01:05:10,600 --> 01:05:16,040 And yeah, I I think I think we might get a couple nuclear JT 1087 01:05:16,040 --> 01:05:17,600 games here to close out the season. 1088 01:05:17,600 --> 01:05:20,480 It just kind of looks like it's getting they're going to give 1089 01:05:20,480 --> 01:05:23,720 him the opportunity to do it. So now we're just going to see 1090 01:05:23,720 --> 01:05:27,680 does does JT have that in the tank to to deliver one of his 1091 01:05:27,680 --> 01:05:32,240 classic blow up games with a couple breakaway plays And I I 1092 01:05:32,240 --> 01:05:34,200 firmly believe that he's got that in the tank. 1093 01:05:34,680 --> 01:05:42,280 SO11 talk about this, and maybe I'm just wrong, is that the last 1094 01:05:42,280 --> 01:05:45,720 two weeks have been sort of blow out games in either direction 1095 01:05:45,720 --> 01:05:51,160 for the Jaguars. So that that may be like mixing 1096 01:05:51,160 --> 01:05:57,440 up the the the, the usage stuff but I I I think you're 1097 01:05:57,440 --> 01:06:01,920 definitely direction directionally right where the 1098 01:06:01,920 --> 01:06:07,600 row for for Travis Etienne is smaller than it was prior to the 1099 01:06:07,600 --> 01:06:13,560 buy, but maybe it's a little bit bigger than it has been weeks 11 1100 01:06:13,560 --> 01:06:15,480 and 10. I think I think that's a great 1101 01:06:15,480 --> 01:06:17,040 call out. And you've you've had a couple 1102 01:06:17,040 --> 01:06:20,440 points like that today which I think is some of the most 1103 01:06:20,440 --> 01:06:26,120 valuable analysis that we can do in in this game with such small 1104 01:06:26,120 --> 01:06:29,920 samples is looking at the context with which we got a data 1105 01:06:29,920 --> 01:06:34,360 point like why did this happen. You know really, really getting 1106 01:06:34,360 --> 01:06:37,440 more granular on it and understanding where that 1107 01:06:37,440 --> 01:06:40,440 specific piece or point of data came from. 1108 01:06:41,160 --> 01:06:44,080 And and so I I just you know for everyone out there that's you 1109 01:06:44,080 --> 01:06:46,800 know wants to think critically about the game and be really 1110 01:06:46,800 --> 01:06:49,360 process driven. I think that's definitely a 1111 01:06:49,360 --> 01:06:52,080 really strong note is to think about it in the way that Draco 1112 01:06:52,080 --> 01:06:55,000 has has done today where he's pointed out a couple things or 1113 01:06:55,320 --> 01:06:57,600 hey, you know this, this definitely looks like it could 1114 01:06:57,600 --> 01:07:00,400 be a trend. But here's maybe a little bit of 1115 01:07:00,400 --> 01:07:03,480 a reason for the aberration that we've seen over these last 1116 01:07:03,480 --> 01:07:06,000 couple games compared to the rest of the sample we have over 1117 01:07:06,000 --> 01:07:08,280 the season. And so maybe the truth lies 1118 01:07:08,280 --> 01:07:10,760 somewhere right in between. And so I just wanted to point 1119 01:07:10,760 --> 01:07:12,600 that out. It's good, good process. 1120 01:07:13,200 --> 01:07:14,880 Thank you. That's very nice of you to say. 1121 01:07:17,280 --> 01:07:22,440 So I think, I think are, are we ready to move on from this one? 1122 01:07:22,440 --> 01:07:24,120 Yeah, let's let's hit tight ends here. 1123 01:07:28,480 --> 01:07:31,560 Talking about process, I need to get my zooming process a little 1124 01:07:31,560 --> 01:07:34,920 better. So we've got our tight end 1125 01:07:34,920 --> 01:07:38,160 utilization and efficiency chart and essentially we're just 1126 01:07:38,160 --> 01:07:40,560 looking at routes as a percentage of drop backs. 1127 01:07:41,000 --> 01:07:44,760 And then we do have pass blocking in here too because we 1128 01:07:44,760 --> 01:07:48,840 want to see how often they're on the field and it also gives us a 1129 01:07:48,840 --> 01:07:52,080 flavour of how they're used when they are on the field for 1130 01:07:52,080 --> 01:07:55,280 passing and downs. We've got targets per out run. 1131 01:07:55,960 --> 01:08:00,280 Obviously we love targets and we've got a dot which tells us 1132 01:08:00,280 --> 01:08:02,960 how deep down the field, tight ends are targeted. 1133 01:08:03,480 --> 01:08:07,880 And as a rule we generally prefer further down the field 1134 01:08:07,880 --> 01:08:12,560 targets. But it's it's it's more of an 1135 01:08:12,560 --> 01:08:15,160 art than a science. Like you don't want like you 1136 01:08:15,160 --> 01:08:21,319 don't necessarily want a tight end with like a 15-A dot because 1137 01:08:21,359 --> 01:08:24,880 that that that that's like not not necessarily representative 1138 01:08:24,880 --> 01:08:27,840 of a of a true sort of workhorse eater. 1139 01:08:28,319 --> 01:08:32,200 But definitely the closer towards 10 the better I would 1140 01:08:32,200 --> 01:08:34,960 say. Yeah. 1141 01:08:35,600 --> 01:08:39,560 And so there's been a tiny bit of a shake up near the top of 1142 01:08:39,560 --> 01:08:41,479 the chart. Not that you know anyone that 1143 01:08:41,479 --> 01:08:45,240 wasn't near the top had has emerged but just kind of the 1144 01:08:45,240 --> 01:08:48,520 order of guys as we again we're looking at these as like a 1145 01:08:48,520 --> 01:08:53,359 rolling 4 weeks. And So what we've seen here is 1146 01:08:53,439 --> 01:08:58,000 Kate Auten refuses to ever come off the field for the bucks. 1147 01:08:58,000 --> 01:09:02,520 You know he he's out there the whole damn game and you know 1148 01:09:02,520 --> 01:09:05,319 he's not he. He had the one spike week game 1149 01:09:05,319 --> 01:09:08,600 where he he randomly got the two touchdowns against the Texans. 1150 01:09:09,080 --> 01:09:11,760 But the reason I'm I'm talking about Kate Aughton is 1151 01:09:11,760 --> 01:09:16,120 specifically for this week's slate on, you know the dog Bowl 1152 01:09:16,120 --> 01:09:19,000 or like the main slate vRS. You actually, you're probably 1153 01:09:19,000 --> 01:09:20,800 never taking him in the main slate vRS. 1154 01:09:20,800 --> 01:09:25,240 But in the dog bowl, Titan is so thin this week there's like a 1155 01:09:25,240 --> 01:09:28,479 couple good ones at the top. It's like Kelsey, and then you 1156 01:09:28,479 --> 01:09:30,600 have other, you know, a few other usable ones. 1157 01:09:30,600 --> 01:09:32,920 You know, you've got your your Schultz, you've got your Trey 1158 01:09:32,920 --> 01:09:35,000 McBride, you've got your Evan Ingram. 1159 01:09:35,640 --> 01:09:40,439 But then after those, that tier of guys, it's just there's no 1160 01:09:40,439 --> 01:09:44,319 one like you're going to have teams that end up with, you 1161 01:09:44,319 --> 01:09:50,319 know, Chigo Conquo or Tyler Higbee or, you know, like those 1162 01:09:50,319 --> 01:09:54,279 are going to be the Titans that get drafted in 100% of drafts 1163 01:09:54,360 --> 01:09:58,440 because of how bad the back end of the tight end tier is. 1164 01:09:59,040 --> 01:10:05,160 And so Kate Auten goes in that group and he shouldn't be going 1165 01:10:05,160 --> 01:10:07,560 there. I I mean, like he should be in 1166 01:10:07,560 --> 01:10:10,360 that tier, but he's just like clearly the best one. 1167 01:10:11,040 --> 01:10:15,560 And I think that in a week where you have so few good tight ends 1168 01:10:15,560 --> 01:10:19,280 on the slate, I think you really want to place a premium in a guy 1169 01:10:19,280 --> 01:10:23,160 that is much less likely to totally goose you because he's 1170 01:10:23,160 --> 01:10:25,440 out there all the time. He's getting targets every week. 1171 01:10:25,640 --> 01:10:28,440 He's not going to do anything terribly sexy or exciting. 1172 01:10:28,440 --> 01:10:31,040 You're you're praying for like a three for 30 and he falls in the 1173 01:10:31,040 --> 01:10:32,360 end zone outcome. Right. 1174 01:10:32,680 --> 01:10:36,640 But like he he's not going to totally brick you like some of 1175 01:10:36,640 --> 01:10:39,760 these other tight ends can. And I really like the game 1176 01:10:39,760 --> 01:10:43,000 environment these in two and just the the way that the 1177 01:10:43,000 --> 01:10:45,800 quarterback distribution looks like it's shaping up this week 1178 01:10:45,800 --> 01:10:47,880 as well. It's like there's good 1179 01:10:47,880 --> 01:10:50,800 quarterbacks and then there's just like 50 feet of crap and 1180 01:10:50,800 --> 01:10:54,960 then the other quarterbacks and Baker also goes pretty late. 1181 01:10:54,960 --> 01:10:58,720 So I think that you can do some really good builds where you're 1182 01:10:58,720 --> 01:11:02,440 doing like a Baker double with like Mike Evans, K dot and Baker 1183 01:11:02,440 --> 01:11:06,360 Mayfield and then you find a bring back from Indy that's, you 1184 01:11:06,360 --> 01:11:10,240 know, Pittman has an incredible role and he's undervalued in in 1185 01:11:10,240 --> 01:11:13,000 his ADP for what his target share has been. 1186 01:11:13,000 --> 01:11:16,240 And then Josh downs as well, just for his from a talent 1187 01:11:16,240 --> 01:11:19,640 perspective where he goes. He's also being undervalued and 1188 01:11:19,640 --> 01:11:23,280 and from a game environment, so wanted to shout out Auten and 1189 01:11:23,280 --> 01:11:26,680 then. I guess just one one sort of 1190 01:11:27,160 --> 01:11:32,120 context or or framing note on on Auten is I'm looking at his the 1191 01:11:32,280 --> 01:11:35,000 no we don't show this in the chart but I'm looking at his 1192 01:11:35,000 --> 01:11:39,200 like expected points per game. So that obviously incorporates 1193 01:11:39,200 --> 01:11:42,720 all the targets, all the stuff like that and and and what his 1194 01:11:42,720 --> 01:11:47,400 expected points per game would be, it's 8.4 in PPR which. 1195 01:11:47,800 --> 01:11:52,560 It's it's not awful. It it is just not awful at all 1196 01:11:53,120 --> 01:11:57,560 and which is sort of how you were talking about them but is 1197 01:11:57,800 --> 01:12:03,480 is sort of worth noting that you you you do need a a bit of a 1198 01:12:03,480 --> 01:12:06,480 ceiling game to to to really get on the board with them. 1199 01:12:07,120 --> 01:12:11,960 Yeah and and what I'm looking at him as this week in Dog Bowl as 1200 01:12:11,960 --> 01:12:15,680 I'm looking at him as an extremely correlated bet on the 1201 01:12:15,680 --> 01:12:19,800 Bucks passing game with Baker Mayfield which allows me to just 1202 01:12:19,800 --> 01:12:24,160 go heavy on the skill position players early in the draft and 1203 01:12:24,440 --> 01:12:27,520 really soak up all of that value that I see there with guys like 1204 01:12:27,520 --> 01:12:30,440 Josh Jacobs. Like I honestly would even 1205 01:12:30,440 --> 01:12:35,080 consider like a Rashad White, Kate Aughton Mike Evans Baker 1206 01:12:35,080 --> 01:12:37,440 Mayfield giving 1 Colt to bring it back. 1207 01:12:37,440 --> 01:12:39,960 Play it as a full game onslaught cause the slate is kind of 1208 01:12:39,960 --> 01:12:42,800 yucky. Like I I don't think I'd do a 1209 01:12:42,800 --> 01:12:45,960 ton of that. But if it fell to me, I I I 1210 01:12:45,960 --> 01:12:49,640 wouldn't, you know, I wouldn't say I'm never gonna do it. 1211 01:12:49,760 --> 01:12:52,840 Right, right. Like there's only there's only 1212 01:12:52,840 --> 01:12:58,400 1010 games on the slate. So on the main slate and so 1213 01:12:58,400 --> 01:13:02,200 you're you're only getting 20 tight end Tony starting tight 1214 01:13:02,200 --> 01:13:07,080 ends anyway, between 12 people. In in a dog bowl draft. 1215 01:13:07,440 --> 01:13:10,240 So it's like you're saying it it's it's pretty tin. 1216 01:13:10,920 --> 01:13:16,560 So especially as like the sort of last guy or last round stuff 1217 01:13:16,920 --> 01:13:18,560 it that that that's why you're interested. 1218 01:13:19,280 --> 01:13:22,600 But just as a sort of statistical framing on his on 1219 01:13:22,600 --> 01:13:24,160 his profile. Yeah. 1220 01:13:24,160 --> 01:13:27,800 And the other one that I wanted to point out again, this is 1221 01:13:27,800 --> 01:13:31,640 really just specifically for for Dog Bowl and the reason I'm I'm 1222 01:13:31,640 --> 01:13:35,760 kind of using the tight end chart in this context is I don't 1223 01:13:35,760 --> 01:13:38,000 think there's a ton of stuff that we haven't already talked 1224 01:13:38,000 --> 01:13:40,280 about in the past, right. It's like most of these guys are 1225 01:13:40,280 --> 01:13:42,640 what they are. So if I want to give you guys 1226 01:13:42,640 --> 01:13:46,280 some usable Nuggets. And so I do really think that 1227 01:13:46,280 --> 01:13:51,840 Hunter Henry is the next best thing to Kate on in that last 1228 01:13:51,840 --> 01:13:55,640 year of tight ends playing against the Giants bad defense. 1229 01:13:56,040 --> 01:14:00,960 The Patriots passing weapons are extremely extremely thin coming 1230 01:14:00,960 --> 01:14:04,240 off the buy I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Hunter 1231 01:14:04,240 --> 01:14:07,360 Henry more involved. He he had been dealing with an 1232 01:14:07,360 --> 01:14:11,720 injury and so I I think you know giving him a little bit extra 1233 01:14:11,720 --> 01:14:16,400 time to get fully healthy maybe we see him you know emerge with 1234 01:14:16,400 --> 01:14:19,800 one of his more more vintage Hunter Henry games gets in the 1235 01:14:19,800 --> 01:14:25,080 end zone. I I always I've got a inside 1236 01:14:25,080 --> 01:14:28,960 joke with my wife who's a Patriots fan and you know back 1237 01:14:28,960 --> 01:14:31,760 when they they got rid of Gronk everyone is sad there's no more 1238 01:14:31,760 --> 01:14:35,120 Gronk on the Patriots and then they got Hunter Henry and I 1239 01:14:35,120 --> 01:14:37,720 would always tell her that Hunter Henry was Gronk at home 1240 01:14:37,720 --> 01:14:39,160 from the mom. Can we get X? 1241 01:14:40,320 --> 01:14:42,560 No, we we have Gronk at home and that's Hunter Henry. 1242 01:14:42,560 --> 01:14:45,120 So whenever he pops off, he's Gronk at home. 1243 01:14:47,080 --> 01:14:50,320 That that was a very niche joke. I'm I'm sure like 10 people are 1244 01:14:50,320 --> 01:14:53,720 gonna get that, so. No, I I think that's a popular 1245 01:14:53,720 --> 01:14:58,840 enough meme, all right. So yeah I I guess there's 1246 01:14:58,960 --> 01:15:04,720 there's nothing really else to share and do do like to see 1247 01:15:04,720 --> 01:15:09,600 Michael Mayer as sort of like he he's he's definitely firmly in 1248 01:15:09,600 --> 01:15:16,240 the starter chart starting tight end tight end chart now but I 1249 01:15:16,240 --> 01:15:21,880 guess we we that doesn't mean as much now with how the how the 1250 01:15:21,880 --> 01:15:27,640 Raiders have been playing and. So hopefully he can sort of 1251 01:15:27,720 --> 01:15:31,360 continue to consolidate and and and maybe yeah maybe get a 1252 01:15:31,360 --> 01:15:37,080 couple more targets on Perret run stuff but definitely feeling 1253 01:15:38,920 --> 01:15:42,480 I I think he he's probably a turbo of those guys that we just 1254 01:15:42,480 --> 01:15:46,840 talked about right. Yeah I I just I think it's it's 1255 01:15:46,840 --> 01:15:49,600 such a crapshoot I I think that if he gets the volume it'd be 1256 01:15:49,600 --> 01:15:52,760 great. I I'm just like not I don't 1257 01:15:52,760 --> 01:15:53,080 have. Enough. 1258 01:15:53,080 --> 01:15:54,360 He's just knocked out in the volume. 1259 01:15:54,880 --> 01:15:56,440 Yeah. Speaking of guys not getting the 1260 01:15:56,440 --> 01:15:59,840 volume, can I can I ask you one? And you tell me if it's too 1261 01:15:59,840 --> 01:16:02,400 gross? So I've got a lot of these. 1262 01:16:02,400 --> 01:16:05,440 I have these three quarterbacks projecting for very, very close 1263 01:16:05,440 --> 01:16:08,960 in fantasy points. So that's Baker Mayfield, 1264 01:16:09,160 --> 01:16:11,360 Gardner Minshew and Matt Stafford. 1265 01:16:11,880 --> 01:16:16,000 Now, it looks pretty likely that Cup is gonna miss this week from 1266 01:16:16,000 --> 01:16:19,560 what I'm seeing, right? What do you think about Tyler 1267 01:16:19,560 --> 01:16:24,440 Higbee? That sounds interesting. 1268 01:16:24,760 --> 01:16:30,360 And especially, I mean probably less interesting on on underdog 1269 01:16:30,360 --> 01:16:36,200 stuff where it's like half PPR. My brain is is set to sort of 1270 01:16:36,200 --> 01:16:38,400 FFPC mode. So I'm thinking like, oh wow, 1271 01:16:38,400 --> 01:16:41,200 he's gonna get lots of catches. Or he could get lots of catches 1272 01:16:41,200 --> 01:16:49,080 that could be 20 points. And I I guess may, May, maybe as 1273 01:16:50,040 --> 01:16:53,200 a maybe. He's probably in those the same 1274 01:16:53,200 --> 01:16:57,040 tier as those guys. That we just mentioned maybe 1275 01:16:57,360 --> 01:17:01,800 maybe that the bottom of of of the tier before them or ahead of 1276 01:17:01,800 --> 01:17:04,520 them, OK. That, that, that. 1277 01:17:04,520 --> 01:17:07,360 That's my lean, anyway. I just needed your validation. 1278 01:17:07,360 --> 01:17:10,360 I've already drafted him, so I needed to tell me that I wasn't 1279 01:17:10,360 --> 01:17:14,240 an idiot. And I I, I I assume that was 1280 01:17:14,240 --> 01:17:16,480 enough validation. Even if it was, if it was faint. 1281 01:17:16,960 --> 01:17:18,160 Yeah. No, that was plenty. 1282 01:17:18,160 --> 01:17:21,760 I feel I'm gonna sleep like a baby on my Stafford Puka. 1283 01:17:21,760 --> 01:17:23,880 Dekua. Tyler Higbee, Double Stack. 1284 01:17:29,040 --> 01:17:34,160 So let's let's move on under backups. 1285 01:17:34,840 --> 01:17:41,160 And I I, I I have a pretty short trigger finger to to to get to 1286 01:17:41,160 --> 01:17:43,800 the next one here I I was going to say, and we're done with the 1287 01:17:43,800 --> 01:17:45,240 backups. Right. 1288 01:17:45,760 --> 01:17:48,880 This is a this is a cruel joke that that sound played on me 1289 01:17:49,800 --> 01:17:52,560 that I'm still happening to live through the backup. 1290 01:17:52,560 --> 01:17:55,640 I think. Yeah, I think where the backup 1291 01:17:55,640 --> 01:17:58,680 chart can be useful just this is we're gonna do a little stat 1292 01:17:58,680 --> 01:18:00,240 chasing meta discussion here guys. 1293 01:18:00,240 --> 01:18:01,600 You're gonna see how the sausage is made. 1294 01:18:01,880 --> 01:18:04,920 Early season, I think we should have the backup chart. 1295 01:18:05,320 --> 01:18:08,120 I feel like halfway through the season next year we just Nix the 1296 01:18:08,120 --> 01:18:09,680 back once. Once things kind of like 1297 01:18:09,680 --> 01:18:12,520 crystallized, we Nix it. I agree. 1298 01:18:12,960 --> 01:18:17,040 Like, let's let's have a look at it before each week before we 1299 01:18:17,040 --> 01:18:18,680 decide not to use it. But yeah. 1300 01:18:19,520 --> 01:18:23,160 Assuming that there's nobody there popping and just just cut 1301 01:18:23,160 --> 01:18:26,800 it. And so now we're onto the wide 1302 01:18:26,800 --> 01:18:29,680 receivers. We've got what what weighted 1303 01:18:29,680 --> 01:18:34,320 targets per out run, we've got fantasy points per game and 1304 01:18:34,320 --> 01:18:38,720 we've got the route share. And we sort of like loosely 1305 01:18:38,720 --> 01:18:43,160 described the the four quadrants of this chart as the studs 1306 01:18:43,160 --> 01:18:48,080 getting volume, the guys getting volume but not popping in 1307 01:18:48,080 --> 01:18:50,760 fantasy. So possible regression 1308 01:18:50,760 --> 01:18:54,440 candidates we've got. The negative regression 1309 01:18:54,440 --> 01:18:57,600 candidates, guys who are not getting volume but have scored 1310 01:18:57,600 --> 01:19:00,440 points. So we're looking for sort of 1311 01:19:00,440 --> 01:19:01,840 like a negative regression there. 1312 01:19:02,360 --> 01:19:06,400 And then we have the milk carton guys, these are guys who running 1313 01:19:06,560 --> 01:19:10,360 running routes but not scoring points and not getting targets. 1314 01:19:12,760 --> 01:19:16,600 Another chart that that tends to be pretty stable once we get a 1315 01:19:16,600 --> 01:19:22,080 couple of weeks in there, but I'm a little bit disappointed is 1316 01:19:22,080 --> 01:19:24,680 that. Am I reading this right that 1317 01:19:24,680 --> 01:19:31,280 that so zay flowers and he's in this chart and and his dot is 1318 01:19:31,280 --> 01:19:33,560 the one just above Terry McLaren. 1319 01:19:34,680 --> 01:19:41,440 Yeah, he Zay, I believe is actually the he's the yellow dot 1320 01:19:41,440 --> 01:19:45,560 where Terry is the red dot. Yeah the the little lines are 1321 01:19:45,560 --> 01:19:47,040 not. So clear, right? 1322 01:19:47,040 --> 01:19:47,920 Yeah. Oh yeah, yeah. 1323 01:19:47,920 --> 01:19:51,200 Zay zay flowers. Is is the the yellow dot. 1324 01:19:51,640 --> 01:19:53,760 Right next to Terry Mccoran's name. 1325 01:19:54,240 --> 01:19:55,680 Yeah, yeah. And. 1326 01:19:55,680 --> 01:19:59,680 And I think I mean now with Mark Andrews being out for the 1327 01:19:59,680 --> 01:20:03,920 season, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Zay move in the 1328 01:20:03,920 --> 01:20:05,520 direction that we'd like to see him. 1329 01:20:05,520 --> 01:20:09,400 You know, up to the to the right hand quadrant, top right of the 1330 01:20:09,400 --> 01:20:12,040 chart. I think we certainly could see 1331 01:20:12,040 --> 01:20:17,800 him get a lot more attention in the offense and you know, with 1332 01:20:17,800 --> 01:20:21,080 the. With that big 68 yard touchdown 1333 01:20:21,080 --> 01:20:26,280 play getting called back this week I do think that that's 1334 01:20:26,280 --> 01:20:30,000 something where we want to keep that in mind as hey he you know, 1335 01:20:30,000 --> 01:20:32,240 that should move. It's not going to fix 1336 01:20:32,240 --> 01:20:33,560 everything. That's not going to take him 1337 01:20:33,560 --> 01:20:37,240 from you know being slightly in the melt carton quadrant to 1338 01:20:37,240 --> 01:20:40,600 being a stud but it's going to move him in the right direction 1339 01:20:41,960 --> 01:20:46,000 and and so just wanted to to have that note but I'm I'm 1340 01:20:46,000 --> 01:20:50,520 personally not too worried about Zay Flowers but I I think that 1341 01:20:51,240 --> 01:20:55,800 he's pretty close to where I'd have him in in his peer group 1342 01:20:55,800 --> 01:20:58,400 like you you see him kind of near in the same neighborhood as 1343 01:20:58,400 --> 01:21:02,280 Jordan Addison same neighborhood as Calvin Ridley right. 1344 01:21:02,400 --> 01:21:04,680 Chris Godwin Terry Mclaurin. I I think. 1345 01:21:05,240 --> 01:21:08,360 I think that is what he is in, in this offense. 1346 01:21:08,360 --> 01:21:10,800 And that's not to say that he couldn't progress next season 1347 01:21:10,800 --> 01:21:14,320 out out of his rookie season, but I think for for this season, 1348 01:21:14,320 --> 01:21:16,040 that's what he is. Do you think that's fair? 1349 01:21:16,480 --> 01:21:21,800 Yeah yeah I think that's fair. I think he was sort of used as a 1350 01:21:21,840 --> 01:21:24,800 as an extension of the running game early in the year that's 1351 01:21:24,800 --> 01:21:29,960 what seems to have gone away a little bit and and he's still I 1352 01:21:29,960 --> 01:21:33,560 I I feel like he's still probably the favorite especially 1353 01:21:33,560 --> 01:21:36,000 with Andrew. Dan still the favorite for sort 1354 01:21:36,000 --> 01:21:42,320 of short area targets and but. Like you said he he, he will, I 1355 01:21:42,320 --> 01:21:46,200 think he will have to improve and throughout this this season 1356 01:21:46,200 --> 01:21:50,440 and and into next season to truly deliver on on the 1357 01:21:50,440 --> 01:21:54,680 excitement we had for him and moving on. 1358 01:21:55,600 --> 01:21:58,240 You were talking about the Saints and the possibility that 1359 01:21:58,240 --> 01:22:04,400 Jim is would start this week. If that's the case, then Olave 1360 01:22:04,400 --> 01:22:07,720 is just like. Level of a Lava Week, right? 1361 01:22:08,160 --> 01:22:11,480 100 percent. It's a guy that you know, don't. 1362 01:22:11,480 --> 01:22:14,360 Don't everyone watching this go out there and screw up Chris 1363 01:22:14,360 --> 01:22:16,920 Olave's ADP for me? Or if you see me in the streets 1364 01:22:16,920 --> 01:22:20,280 later tonight, please let me get a couple of Lava shares because 1365 01:22:20,640 --> 01:22:23,600 I've been trying to get him and I've just landed in areas of the 1366 01:22:23,600 --> 01:22:27,440 board where it's like I he'd taken him a lot earlier over 1367 01:22:27,440 --> 01:22:30,840 guys that got a little higher but I def I I fully. 1368 01:22:31,280 --> 01:22:34,160 Volunteer you at at his current ADP Yeah, I I fully. 1369 01:22:34,160 --> 01:22:38,840 Which is around 23 and a half. Yeah, I I intend for My 1370 01:22:38,840 --> 01:22:40,440 Portfolio to be pretty overweight. 1371 01:22:40,480 --> 01:22:44,760 Olabe this week in a dog bowl. So yeah, I definitely like that 1372 01:22:44,760 --> 01:22:48,040 as a call out, another one, Here's this one. 1373 01:22:48,040 --> 01:22:50,080 Silly. And I've seen some of the sharp 1374 01:22:50,080 --> 01:22:54,560 players getting on this already but Deontay Johnson goes 1375 01:22:54,560 --> 01:22:59,760 undrafted like that. Shouldn't there there shouldn't 1376 01:22:59,760 --> 01:23:03,560 be any guy that's getting 70% weighted targets per route run 1377 01:23:03,920 --> 01:23:07,760 and running between 95% and 100% of the routes that goes 1378 01:23:07,760 --> 01:23:09,840 undrafted. That's just not right. 1379 01:23:10,080 --> 01:23:13,400 Like that's fantasy football 101 take take the guys that are 1380 01:23:13,400 --> 01:23:17,760 getting great projectable volume like and and you have the 1381 01:23:17,760 --> 01:23:21,640 additional volatility of now we get an offense that's not being 1382 01:23:21,640 --> 01:23:24,920 called by Matt Canada. And when we're playing these 1383 01:23:24,920 --> 01:23:28,520 games where we need extremely you know we need to hit high 1384 01:23:29,280 --> 01:23:32,160 outcomes like we want that volatility. 1385 01:23:32,160 --> 01:23:34,760 And so when you're when you're telling me here's a player with 1386 01:23:34,760 --> 01:23:37,880 a ton of volume and there's a little additional volatility 1387 01:23:37,880 --> 01:23:41,400 attached to him for this week, it's like and he's going 1388 01:23:41,400 --> 01:23:45,960 undrafted it's like sign me up. He'll by I promise when ETR 1389 01:23:46,000 --> 01:23:49,360 rankings come out he's going to scream up the board it's going 1390 01:23:49,360 --> 01:23:53,520 to be really it's it will be comical so go ahead and get your 1391 01:23:53,520 --> 01:23:58,240 last round Deante Johnson now but that's one where that's it's 1392 01:23:58,240 --> 01:24:01,840 just a huge mistake It I I see stuff like this every once in a 1393 01:24:01,840 --> 01:24:06,480 while in the underdog be ours and it's like got it the game is 1394 01:24:06,480 --> 01:24:09,440 is really really good like if you're if you were playing this 1395 01:24:09,440 --> 01:24:13,800 game seriously like you you should be crushing at it because 1396 01:24:13,800 --> 01:24:17,880 there's there's stuff like this most weeks where some it's just 1397 01:24:17,880 --> 01:24:20,480 the markets really wrong and it takes a while to correct. 1398 01:24:22,520 --> 01:24:27,520 I am pretty fair and the other guy and and and this is this is 1399 01:24:27,760 --> 01:24:31,720 honestly a tough one to answer. What's the story with Calvin 1400 01:24:31,720 --> 01:24:38,880 Ridley where like he's sort of been a ghost for a while now and 1401 01:24:38,880 --> 01:24:41,360 then he pops off with one of the best games of the week? 1402 01:24:42,240 --> 01:24:46,560 I I feel like not to to toot my own horn, but I did a a write up 1403 01:24:46,560 --> 01:24:50,320 of my best ball exposures like right in the middle of week one. 1404 01:24:50,320 --> 01:24:53,120 I don't think that that week one had fully concluded yet. 1405 01:24:53,120 --> 01:24:56,440 Or maybe it was done anyway. And I I wrote up my thoughts on 1406 01:24:56,440 --> 01:24:59,760 the Jaguars offense for the season and how I had kind of 1407 01:24:59,760 --> 01:25:03,040 diagnosed it during draft season and I said I was pretty 1408 01:25:03,040 --> 01:25:06,680 confident that it was going to be every receiver and and Evan 1409 01:25:06,680 --> 01:25:09,680 Ingram in this offense was going to be capable of delivering 1410 01:25:09,680 --> 01:25:13,200 spike weeks and it's just going to be you know the carousel of 1411 01:25:13,200 --> 01:25:16,720 whose turn is it. And so I was I was pretty price 1412 01:25:16,720 --> 01:25:20,120 sensitive in that and I had almost no Ridley after he 1413 01:25:20,120 --> 01:25:21,880 screamed up. I got a good amount of fourth 1414 01:25:21,880 --> 01:25:25,840 round Ridley early on and then had no second round Ridley and 1415 01:25:25,840 --> 01:25:30,120 and no third round Ridley and and I I think that that's just 1416 01:25:30,120 --> 01:25:34,120 what we're seeing like sure you've got the the Zay Jones 1417 01:25:34,120 --> 01:25:36,640 splits you know when Zay Jones is in Ridley. 1418 01:25:37,040 --> 01:25:41,680 That's so funny and and I think part of that is noisy and part 1419 01:25:41,680 --> 01:25:44,960 of that is, is the role that they're asking Ridley to play 1420 01:25:44,960 --> 01:25:49,520 with and without Zay Jones. But I I think that we're trying 1421 01:25:49,520 --> 01:25:52,360 to look we're trying to make it too simple of an answer. 1422 01:25:52,360 --> 01:25:56,120 If we say oh Zay Jones in Ridley Smash I, I. 1423 01:25:56,520 --> 01:25:58,440 Truly, that works like that, yeah. 1424 01:25:58,440 --> 01:26:02,240 I truly think what it is is it's it's the carousel of you know 1425 01:26:02,320 --> 01:26:06,400 this offense is good enough that it can deliver explosive weeks 1426 01:26:06,400 --> 01:26:10,320 from any of these receivers. Like if if Zay Jones is fully 1427 01:26:10,320 --> 01:26:14,960 healthy and he keeps playing, I I would not be surprised at all. 1428 01:26:14,960 --> 01:26:18,320 If Zay Jones is the guy you need in in the basketball playoffs. 1429 01:26:18,320 --> 01:26:22,000 You know, like it wouldn't shock me in the slightest to see a 30 1430 01:26:22,000 --> 01:26:25,680 point Zay Jones game. So it it's just the nature of 1431 01:26:25,680 --> 01:26:29,200 this offense where you have 3 competent receivers and a good 1432 01:26:29,200 --> 01:26:31,040 quarterback and a competent offense. 1433 01:26:31,480 --> 01:26:34,400 You know, any of these guys can blow up in any given week, so. 1434 01:26:35,800 --> 01:26:38,320 Yeah, and then and then there's also the piece where he scored 1435 01:26:38,320 --> 01:26:44,000 two touchdowns and that's his third on four touchdowns of the 1436 01:26:44,000 --> 01:26:48,880 year. Like his, his targets, his area 1437 01:26:48,880 --> 01:26:55,040 yards were up there with like 126 and which is around the 1438 01:26:55,040 --> 01:26:56,840 upper end of where he's been this year. 1439 01:26:56,840 --> 01:27:05,520 But he's had 1234 other games. Where he's had over 100 air 1440 01:27:05,520 --> 01:27:11,640 yards and and and sort of targets that have been up there 1441 01:27:11,640 --> 01:27:17,720 in in like 117788. So I think there's probably some 1442 01:27:17,720 --> 01:27:20,600 of it that is just touchdown variants too. 1443 01:27:22,200 --> 01:27:27,160 But it's it's it's obviously a case too where like you said 1444 01:27:27,600 --> 01:27:31,200 where you're going to have weeks where one guy is, is is getting 1445 01:27:31,200 --> 01:27:32,720 all the targets and then the next week. 1446 01:27:33,120 --> 01:27:37,400 And other guys getting them all. Yep. 1447 01:27:38,160 --> 01:27:41,240 Sorry that that was a long way to to just agree with you, but 1448 01:27:41,240 --> 01:27:44,280 no, no, that's I I was happy to hear you agree with me. 1449 01:27:47,400 --> 01:27:52,040 I didn't have anything else I really wanted to to touch on 1450 01:27:52,040 --> 01:27:54,520 here. No, me neither. 1451 01:27:55,080 --> 01:27:57,600 I guess I can. I can take one more shot at my 1452 01:27:57,600 --> 01:28:03,080 favorite punching bag of Adam Thielen who continues to to do 1453 01:28:03,080 --> 01:28:06,440 worse than he did on his screaming hot you know, start to 1454 01:28:06,440 --> 01:28:09,480 the season. It's just it feels so good to 1455 01:28:09,480 --> 01:28:12,760 see the Adam Thielen slappies not not get there. 1456 01:28:12,760 --> 01:28:16,960 I, you know, I'll, I'll be very, very happy to see teams with 1457 01:28:16,960 --> 01:28:19,120 Adam Thielen on them in my playoff pods. 1458 01:28:19,120 --> 01:28:23,080 So it's just everything feels right in the world, you know? 1459 01:28:24,480 --> 01:28:27,320 You know, he's just going to be lower owned in the playoffs now 1460 01:28:28,080 --> 01:28:30,920 he's he's going to be so high on in the playoffs, Adam Thielen's 1461 01:28:30,920 --> 01:28:32,400 advance rate is going to be absurd. 1462 01:28:32,440 --> 01:28:35,560 Just what what he did already is enough to like. 1463 01:28:36,400 --> 01:28:37,960 Right. He was gone so late. 1464 01:28:38,200 --> 01:28:41,960 The only the only way his advance rate goes low is he 1465 01:28:41,960 --> 01:28:46,360 needs like, I mean, yeah, it's not even possible because in 1466 01:28:46,360 --> 01:28:48,880 basketball you you're never going to count his bad scores. 1467 01:28:48,880 --> 01:28:51,280 I was going to say you need him to fumble like 20 times in a 1468 01:28:51,280 --> 01:28:53,880 game and deliver a huge negative week. 1469 01:28:53,880 --> 01:28:56,960 But yeah, it's not not possible. You're going to have a great 1470 01:28:56,960 --> 01:28:58,120 advance rate if you have feeling. 1471 01:28:59,000 --> 01:29:02,120 You know I am. I'm going to be a little bit 1472 01:29:02,120 --> 01:29:07,560 contrarian here and say even last week he didn't have 2.1 1473 01:29:07,560 --> 01:29:10,040 yards per right run. He didn't. 1474 01:29:10,560 --> 01:29:13,640 Yeah, he just didn't score a touchdown. 1475 01:29:14,600 --> 01:29:16,640 And I guess he's an older player. 1476 01:29:16,960 --> 01:29:21,720 So it's like, it's a question of like how much can you get his 1477 01:29:21,720 --> 01:29:31,040 sort of like for him his peak and quality output, but it it's 1478 01:29:31,040 --> 01:29:32,800 Adam Taylor and he scores touchdowns. 1479 01:29:32,800 --> 01:29:34,880 So like that that that that could be a thing. 1480 01:29:34,880 --> 01:29:40,880 Again SO11 supporting data point for for my shitting on Adam 1481 01:29:40,880 --> 01:29:44,720 Thielen is his. His pass route grade from PFF 1482 01:29:45,000 --> 01:29:48,760 has been on a pretty steady declining trend for the last few 1483 01:29:48,760 --> 01:29:51,120 weeks. He was you know pretty squarely 1484 01:29:51,120 --> 01:29:54,520 up in the high 70s and 80s over the first six weeks of the 1485 01:29:54,520 --> 01:29:58,840 season. And then three weeks ago he was 1486 01:29:59,080 --> 01:30:02,720 all the way down at 51. Then two weeks ago he was at 61. 1487 01:30:03,040 --> 01:30:08,960 Last week did a little better at 71, but you know, I'm I I 1488 01:30:08,960 --> 01:30:13,320 wouldn't be surprised to see him still kind of hang around those, 1489 01:30:13,320 --> 01:30:17,600 those lower grades. Are you talking about like his 1490 01:30:18,520 --> 01:30:21,920 his his his receiving grade from PFF? 1491 01:30:22,960 --> 01:30:25,720 It's it's pass route. So I believe it's his route 1492 01:30:25,720 --> 01:30:29,560 running grade from PFF. OK because. 1493 01:30:29,960 --> 01:30:36,600 That's so weird, because maybe we could just be wrong. 1494 01:30:36,600 --> 01:30:39,520 I've got. Or I could just be wrong. 1495 01:30:39,520 --> 01:30:46,280 I've got them having done 37 drop backs last week with 36 1496 01:30:46,560 --> 01:30:49,920 routes for Adam Thielen. Oh, I was. 1497 01:30:49,920 --> 01:30:52,240 I was saying his grade, not. Not. 1498 01:30:52,240 --> 01:30:53,520 Oh, he's great. He's great. 1499 01:30:53,520 --> 01:30:56,840 OK, OK, got it, got it. Yeah, which is which is very 1500 01:30:56,840 --> 01:31:00,000 subjective. Like it's it's not a not a stat 1501 01:31:00,000 --> 01:31:03,240 that I'm going to rely on all the time, but it supported my 1502 01:31:03,240 --> 01:31:07,560 case that Adam Thielen bad, so that's why we're talking about 1503 01:31:07,560 --> 01:31:12,320 it. OK and yeah, I'm I'm not an I 1504 01:31:12,320 --> 01:31:19,080 don't feel an lover eater and I I just, I just, I guess and he's 1505 01:31:19,080 --> 01:31:23,440 getting targets and if he scores touchdowns he's going to be, 1506 01:31:23,920 --> 01:31:25,440 it's going to be score points I guess. 1507 01:31:27,200 --> 01:31:29,440 Yeah, I'll. I'll wait till he buries me in 1508 01:31:29,440 --> 01:31:33,560 the playoffs. And so. 1509 01:31:34,040 --> 01:31:35,840 Yeah. Let's, let's move on from this 1510 01:31:35,840 --> 01:31:40,880 chart on to as I say every week it's the Tyree Kill chart where 1511 01:31:40,880 --> 01:31:44,080 we just have to we've got everybody else. 1512 01:31:44,080 --> 01:31:49,840 And then we have Tyree Kill at 25 points a game in 90% weighted 1513 01:31:49,840 --> 01:31:54,160 targets per hour run which just far and away. 1514 01:31:54,160 --> 01:31:55,960 Yeah, better than everybody else. 1515 01:31:56,400 --> 01:32:01,320 Like, even if, if, even, like. The I'm I'm pulling back to the 1516 01:32:01,320 --> 01:32:03,160 first chart. The first chart doesn't even go 1517 01:32:03,160 --> 01:32:07,080 up to 25 points a game. It doesn't even go up to way to 1518 01:32:07,080 --> 01:32:10,960 target Spirit run on 90%. We have to stretch the second 1519 01:32:10,960 --> 01:32:13,080 chart out to accommodate Tory kill. 1520 01:32:13,960 --> 01:32:15,880 So. So here's a fun question. 1521 01:32:15,920 --> 01:32:19,520 Knowing what we know now, pretend that you were allowed to 1522 01:32:19,520 --> 01:32:24,240 get back in it, get in a time machine and go back to draft a 1523 01:32:24,240 --> 01:32:26,160 couple best ball teams for the summer. 1524 01:32:27,000 --> 01:32:29,640 Who were you taking? 101 Tyreek Hill or Christian 1525 01:32:29,640 --> 01:32:34,600 McCaffrey? And CMC, OK. 1526 01:32:35,160 --> 01:32:38,000 I, I and I think it's based on that sort of positional scarcity 1527 01:32:38,000 --> 01:32:40,080 that we're talking about. Yeah, I agree. 1528 01:32:40,080 --> 01:32:43,880 CMC and then clown cars. Yeah, I I agree you. 1529 01:32:44,000 --> 01:32:46,800 You basically, if you were doing this time machine exercise, you 1530 01:32:46,800 --> 01:32:50,880 go back, you draft CMC and then you just don't draft any other 1531 01:32:50,880 --> 01:32:55,560 running backs like you. You just take a zero at CMC, 1532 01:32:55,560 --> 01:32:58,240 zero at my RB2. And let me have a bunch of wide 1533 01:32:58,240 --> 01:33:06,520 receivers. And then I guess my my only 1534 01:33:06,520 --> 01:33:10,000 other question and and and maybe this is Cope stuff. 1535 01:33:11,280 --> 01:33:14,880 It really has been the sort of disappointing season for gel and 1536 01:33:14,880 --> 01:33:17,520 waddle. But then when I look at his. 1537 01:33:19,040 --> 01:33:20,800 His way to Target's Brett run it. 1538 01:33:21,280 --> 01:33:23,200 It's not like he's not getting targeted. 1539 01:33:25,200 --> 01:33:28,760 I guess it it's weird that he's only on the field 75 to 80% of 1540 01:33:28,760 --> 01:33:30,000 the game. The games. 1541 01:33:30,440 --> 01:33:33,400 I'd imagine some of that has been from his injuries and stuff 1542 01:33:33,400 --> 01:33:41,200 like that and but I guess looking at this chart it it does 1543 01:33:41,200 --> 01:33:46,960 feel fair to say that he's a. He's a regression candidate in 1544 01:33:46,960 --> 01:33:52,840 terms of like his route share and and sort of touchdowns and 1545 01:33:52,840 --> 01:33:58,040 and and corresponding points. Yep I good good call out because 1546 01:33:58,040 --> 01:34:01,120 that was a guy that I had been looking at and thinking about. 1547 01:34:01,400 --> 01:34:04,040 You know really through the lens of guys that I want to have on 1548 01:34:04,040 --> 01:34:07,560 my squads when I get to the the basketball playoffs. 1549 01:34:07,760 --> 01:34:09,960 Not that we have any control over it whatsoever, but it's 1550 01:34:09,960 --> 01:34:13,520 just fun to think about. And I real, I thought of Jalen 1551 01:34:13,520 --> 01:34:16,760 Waddle as a guy that I really want to have a a lot of get 1552 01:34:16,760 --> 01:34:20,440 through the playoffs, 'cause my my interpretation of, you know, 1553 01:34:20,440 --> 01:34:23,680 this somewhat lackluster performance so far this year is 1554 01:34:23,680 --> 01:34:26,040 you had a a good amount of it marred by injury. 1555 01:34:26,360 --> 01:34:29,720 And then really, when you look back at last season for what 1556 01:34:29,720 --> 01:34:34,280 made him so good, he kept having these huge explosive plays, 1557 01:34:34,280 --> 01:34:37,840 right breakaway touchdown run or deep pass that he converts into 1558 01:34:37,840 --> 01:34:41,440 a touchdown. Things like that, where you've 1559 01:34:41,440 --> 01:34:44,360 just really haven't gotten as many of those this season. 1560 01:34:45,000 --> 01:34:48,280 And I don't think that that's because he all of a sudden got a 1561 01:34:48,280 --> 01:34:50,880 lot worse. I think the guy's dealt with a 1562 01:34:50,880 --> 01:34:54,560 little bit of injury and you know, has maybe run a little bit 1563 01:34:54,560 --> 01:34:57,680 bad and converting some of the most explosive plays. 1564 01:34:57,680 --> 01:35:01,320 So I think that what you're looking at here is a player 1565 01:35:01,320 --> 01:35:04,960 with, you know, he's still got a really high ceiling in his bag 1566 01:35:04,960 --> 01:35:10,200 of tricks and we just haven't seen a lot of it yet this 1567 01:35:10,200 --> 01:35:12,160 season. But that doesn't mean that 1568 01:35:12,160 --> 01:35:15,840 that's not available for him. And so that's one of the players 1569 01:35:15,840 --> 01:35:19,040 where when I see a team get through with Waddle on it, I'm 1570 01:35:19,040 --> 01:35:22,360 pretty excited for it. And the perspective that I'm I'm 1571 01:35:22,360 --> 01:35:25,880 looking at here is I think the Miami double stacks are probably 1572 01:35:25,880 --> 01:35:28,120 gonna be one of the most valuable thing. 1573 01:35:28,120 --> 01:35:31,520 I mean like really a Miami team stack is what you're wanting to 1574 01:35:31,520 --> 01:35:33,160 have when you get into the playoffs. 1575 01:35:33,160 --> 01:35:36,760 Like you sneak through a lower owned Jalen Waddle. 1576 01:35:37,080 --> 01:35:40,600 You know you get a an A Chan who is still probably going to have 1577 01:35:40,600 --> 01:35:43,960 a pretty good advance rate even after missing so much time. 1578 01:35:44,440 --> 01:35:47,200 But you know if you've got impaired with Jalen Waddle maybe 1579 01:35:47,200 --> 01:35:49,880 you can can have a slightly more depressed advance rate on that 1580 01:35:49,880 --> 01:35:55,560 specific player combo. But yeah, I'm I I think, I think 1581 01:35:55,560 --> 01:35:57,680 those Miami team stacks are certainly going to be 1582 01:35:57,680 --> 01:36:02,840 interesting. Speaking of playoffs. 1583 01:36:03,960 --> 01:36:08,440 Do you think and and and given the fact that you you'll be 1584 01:36:08,440 --> 01:36:14,040 talking about the playoff best ball do you think it. 1585 01:36:14,040 --> 01:36:18,520 It seems to me that Miami might be one of those teams in playoff 1586 01:36:18,520 --> 01:36:21,240 best ball that's sort of undervalued, still somehow 1587 01:36:21,840 --> 01:36:27,720 somehow utter than Tiger kill and going with ADP of 6 and you 1588 01:36:27,720 --> 01:36:33,720 have a Chua WIT and 19. And then I'm not sure I'm I'm 1589 01:36:33,720 --> 01:36:37,920 trying to find Waddle here but he's I I I can't find them. 1590 01:36:37,920 --> 01:36:40,040 So it means he's gone pretty late. 1591 01:36:40,440 --> 01:36:51,240 He's gone pick 28.7 and Raheem most are 29.7 a Chan 23. 1592 01:36:51,360 --> 01:36:55,200 These all seem like for a team that that seems like a lot to 1593 01:36:55,200 --> 01:36:58,680 win the division and but not get the first round. 1594 01:36:58,680 --> 01:37:01,800 Bye. That that that seems and and 1595 01:37:01,800 --> 01:37:04,360 given how explosive their offense has been that that seems 1596 01:37:04,640 --> 01:37:06,400 inefficient. Yeah. 1597 01:37:06,400 --> 01:37:13,640 So I I see Miami as 93% to make the playoffs in the playoff 1598 01:37:13,640 --> 01:37:17,960 simulations that they've got over at Spike week and then 1599 01:37:17,960 --> 01:37:21,480 their one seed probability is just 16%. 1600 01:37:22,320 --> 01:37:28,600 And so I I mean that's like all systems go for me and Pat and I 1601 01:37:28,600 --> 01:37:31,880 will will talk a little bit about the strategy surrounding 1602 01:37:31,880 --> 01:37:34,320 playoff basketball and how you kind of like go down the 1603 01:37:34,320 --> 01:37:37,600 different game trees when you select your player. 1604 01:37:38,240 --> 01:37:41,960 But I I don't think it's going to be any state secret. 1605 01:37:43,040 --> 01:37:45,440 You know what we can talk a little bit more about the why 1606 01:37:45,440 --> 01:37:47,920 and how to apply this to the rest of your strategy. 1607 01:37:47,920 --> 01:37:54,640 But Tyree Kill is going to be probably the best pick overall I 1608 01:37:54,640 --> 01:37:59,360 would say in in the first round based on the rest of the Miami 1609 01:37:59,600 --> 01:38:03,040 cost. So if if that holds. 1610 01:38:03,040 --> 01:38:05,560 The other thing with playoff basketball is the market is so, 1611 01:38:05,560 --> 01:38:09,840 so volatile and again we we won't get too into that right 1612 01:38:09,840 --> 01:38:12,040 here. But it's something where if you 1613 01:38:12,040 --> 01:38:16,040 have a a good strategy and you understand how to handle it, you 1614 01:38:16,040 --> 01:38:19,240 can really, really exploit it to to put yourself in a pretty 1615 01:38:19,240 --> 01:38:21,880 advantageous position to make some good money on these 1616 01:38:21,920 --> 01:38:26,720 contests so. So look look out for for Lego 1617 01:38:27,240 --> 01:38:32,200 playoff basketball strategy videos where you'll get more 1618 01:38:33,280 --> 01:38:36,920 even more in depth analysis on on on on other teams other than 1619 01:38:36,920 --> 01:38:42,240 Miami than that Jericho with the the elite plug game right there. 1620 01:38:43,680 --> 01:38:44,560 No. Oh, well, I thought, I thought, 1621 01:38:44,560 --> 01:38:47,560 I thought, I thought it was a good spot to like, hey, there's 1622 01:38:47,560 --> 01:38:49,720 your teaser. If you want more you know where 1623 01:38:49,720 --> 01:38:51,760 to go that was great. I mean you're a you're a 1624 01:38:51,760 --> 01:38:57,120 seasoned veteran man yeah other guys on this chart I had a 1625 01:38:57,120 --> 01:39:00,520 question for you. So we got Nico Collins and Tank 1626 01:39:00,520 --> 01:39:04,400 Dell on this chart together. They're they're you know pretty 1627 01:39:04,400 --> 01:39:06,640 close in fantasy points per game. 1628 01:39:06,920 --> 01:39:11,240 Obviously tank has been the new hotness lately just absolutely 1629 01:39:11,240 --> 01:39:15,480 smashing you know delivering a huge game this last week. 1630 01:39:16,560 --> 01:39:19,520 You know they're tank is is at a higher weighted targets per 1631 01:39:19,520 --> 01:39:22,560 route run, but not by a ton. Here they're, you know they're 1632 01:39:22,560 --> 01:39:26,480 still in the same neighborhood. Do you think this flipping of 1633 01:39:26,480 --> 01:39:29,880 Tank Dell is now the wide receiver one for the Texans and 1634 01:39:29,880 --> 01:39:31,920 Nico Collins is the wide receiver 2. 1635 01:39:32,440 --> 01:39:34,520 Is that accurate in your opinion? 1636 01:39:36,200 --> 01:39:41,880 So it it's hard to tell with this kind of week to week stuff 1637 01:39:41,880 --> 01:39:48,480 in terms of targets and because you can have, you can have. 1638 01:39:48,960 --> 01:39:53,720 Weeks where both guys are sort of like high up on the target 1639 01:39:53,720 --> 01:39:56,600 tree and they'll ping, they'll they'll have weeks where they 1640 01:39:56,600 --> 01:40:02,720 ping pong back-to-back and then over a longer sample one guy's 1641 01:40:02,720 --> 01:40:06,760 higher. I guess my, my one note of 1642 01:40:06,760 --> 01:40:12,720 context is that I think it's pretty like it's obviously 1643 01:40:12,720 --> 01:40:15,000 bullish for Tank Dell that he's a rookie. 1644 01:40:15,680 --> 01:40:18,480 And that he's doing this and that he's challenging Nico at 1645 01:40:18,480 --> 01:40:29,920 all and but I I guess also it it it feels to me that it opens up 1646 01:40:29,920 --> 01:40:34,440 the case it it makes it it makes the probability of of it being a 1647 01:40:34,440 --> 01:40:38,120 flip link much higher like if the if these if he was like if 1648 01:40:38,120 --> 01:40:40,720 there were similar experience levels and and all that sort of 1649 01:40:40,720 --> 01:40:45,640 stuff I I'd be more inclined to believe this sort of ping pong 1650 01:40:45,640 --> 01:40:49,520 teary. But it's it. 1651 01:40:49,640 --> 01:40:52,840 Like I said it's hard to call. I I would have a lane to it it 1652 01:40:52,840 --> 01:40:56,040 being tanked al over Nico especially given the sort of 1653 01:40:56,040 --> 01:41:02,480 long view stuff we have on Nico where you know he he he took a 1654 01:41:02,480 --> 01:41:04,920 while to to establish himself in the NFL. 1655 01:41:05,080 --> 01:41:08,440 Whereas tank I know I know Tanked Al has Cedar Stroud but 1656 01:41:08,440 --> 01:41:12,800 he's doing it immediately. So, so I've got a follow up 1657 01:41:12,800 --> 01:41:17,000 question for you. Tank Dell is going in the early 1658 01:41:17,520 --> 01:41:19,520 first round. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah. 1659 01:41:19,520 --> 01:41:22,640 Yeah. In terms of like the price 1660 01:41:22,640 --> 01:41:29,320 sensitivity, I'm I'm saying like I think it's 55% that Tank Dell 1661 01:41:29,320 --> 01:41:34,520 is the new one and probably 45% that this is like just variance 1662 01:41:35,000 --> 01:41:38,600 and if you're getting like a first round pick to where does 1663 01:41:38,640 --> 01:41:42,320 Nico go? Nico goes in the back of the 3rd 1664 01:41:42,440 --> 01:41:44,200 and sometimes all the way in the 4th. 1665 01:41:44,560 --> 01:41:47,080 So like that. That's where you talk about 1666 01:41:47,080 --> 01:41:49,400 price sensitivity. Like like I'm saying I'm I'm 1667 01:41:49,400 --> 01:41:53,960 saying I have a lien to yes it's tank but first round versus 1668 01:41:53,960 --> 01:42:02,920 fourth round 3-4 in like a 12 round, 10 game slate difference 1669 01:42:02,920 --> 01:42:05,440 it's it's it's massive. It's massive. 1670 01:42:06,040 --> 01:42:11,880 It's like you you're you're you like to say, I'll bet what 1671 01:42:11,880 --> 01:42:15,160 dollars to Donuts like. Sure, that's a that's a sack ISM 1672 01:42:15,920 --> 01:42:18,360 that you're you're if you're taking Nico, you're you're 1673 01:42:18,360 --> 01:42:24,160 betting Donuts to dollars. And then just we're just going 1674 01:42:24,160 --> 01:42:25,840 to give away all the Dog Bowl alpha. 1675 01:42:25,840 --> 01:42:29,680 I'm I'm literally finishing all my drafts tonight so that you 1676 01:42:29,680 --> 01:42:33,400 you good people don't totally mush all of my alpha before I 1677 01:42:33,400 --> 01:42:38,160 can get to it myself. But here, here you go, in the 1678 01:42:38,280 --> 01:42:42,640 all of the drafts I've been in, there are 0 tanked or zero. 1679 01:42:42,640 --> 01:42:46,280 Nico Collins and CJ Stroud stacks 0. 1680 01:42:47,000 --> 01:42:52,040 So just by taking CJ Stroud and Nico Collins, you're getting a 1681 01:42:52,040 --> 01:42:55,600 huge amount of leverage on the other CJ Stroud teams. 1682 01:42:56,200 --> 01:42:58,920 And it's not like you're having to do it with a marginal play. 1683 01:42:59,000 --> 01:43:01,760 You're doing it with a great play at at cost. 1684 01:43:02,360 --> 01:43:05,680 And so I. I mean I'll, I'll literally call 1685 01:43:05,680 --> 01:43:09,680 it right now that one of the dog bowl teams that wins this week 1686 01:43:09,720 --> 01:43:13,480 will be ACJ Stroud, Nico Collins team like I I promise you. 1687 01:43:14,040 --> 01:43:17,120 So that's what do you mean you promise? 1688 01:43:17,520 --> 01:43:20,520 I I'm just, I'm telling you like it's so much leverage all you 1689 01:43:20,520 --> 01:43:24,120 need is CJ Stroud to hit and like you're you're basically 1690 01:43:24,120 --> 01:43:27,520 crushing all the other Nico or you're crushing all the other 1691 01:43:27,520 --> 01:43:29,440 Stroud. It's it's a very, very strong 1692 01:43:29,440 --> 01:43:32,000 combination. It's it's, yeah, If you don't 1693 01:43:32,040 --> 01:43:34,080 promise that, that, that's going to be the win. 1694 01:43:34,440 --> 01:43:39,320 I promise it. That's the sack guarantee. 1695 01:43:39,640 --> 01:43:41,880 Yeah, you know, or or your money back. 1696 01:43:41,880 --> 01:43:43,320 Just kidding. Absolutely not. 1697 01:43:46,200 --> 01:43:51,720 OK. And so then I guess we're also 1698 01:43:51,720 --> 01:43:54,680 talking about Noah Brown. I know he was like a waiver 1699 01:43:54,680 --> 01:44:00,200 darling last week after he had the had the big game. 1700 01:44:00,800 --> 01:44:01,320 Is. Is. 1701 01:44:01,320 --> 01:44:02,880 Is he? Is he still? 1702 01:44:02,920 --> 01:44:08,480 Is he still hot or is he not? In my opinion, he's closer to 1703 01:44:08,480 --> 01:44:12,160 not I I mean it. It just is more of a testament 1704 01:44:12,160 --> 01:44:16,520 to CJ Stroud than Noah Brown. It's hey, whoever is here, CJ 1705 01:44:16,520 --> 01:44:19,680 Stroud will elevate. So it doesn't matter if it's 1706 01:44:19,680 --> 01:44:24,440 Noah Brown or Dalton Schultz or, you know, freaking Jordan Aikens 1707 01:44:24,440 --> 01:44:26,040 or whoever. Like, if you're out there 1708 01:44:26,040 --> 01:44:29,440 running routes for the Texans and CJ Stroud is back there 1709 01:44:29,440 --> 01:44:33,320 delivering it, you're going to be useful for fantasy and so. 1710 01:44:34,080 --> 01:44:37,520 In my opinion, where you got Nico Collins and Tank Dell, you 1711 01:44:37,560 --> 01:44:41,800 know, occupying so much of the target share, I don't think that 1712 01:44:41,800 --> 01:44:45,160 I'm terribly interested in Noah Brown with both of them healthy. 1713 01:44:46,440 --> 01:44:48,600 But that's just me. Maybe, you know, maybe Noah 1714 01:44:48,600 --> 01:44:50,720 Brown comes out this week and and proves us wrong. 1715 01:44:51,120 --> 01:44:55,760 So he, I guess he was out and he was out in week 11. 1716 01:44:56,040 --> 01:45:01,800 So did obviously. No no new news for him there and 1717 01:45:01,800 --> 01:45:08,320 just has to come back from that injury but I I I I I just had 1718 01:45:08,320 --> 01:45:11,720 been I've been surprised at the about the hype and and and 1719 01:45:11,720 --> 01:45:18,280 wanted to ask so I I guess we're ready to move on and. 1720 01:45:18,320 --> 01:45:21,840 Let's let's hit the final wide receiver chart here and maybe 1721 01:45:21,840 --> 01:45:27,120 maybe note that with Michael Thomas going on IR that that 1722 01:45:27,440 --> 01:45:31,720 that that makes Rashid, Rashid Shahid interesting too. 1723 01:45:34,320 --> 01:45:35,880 I don't think it changes anything. 1724 01:45:35,920 --> 01:45:38,480 I don't think Michael Thomas changes Rashid Shahid at all 1725 01:45:38,480 --> 01:45:40,840 'cause they were in two very distinct roles. 1726 01:45:40,840 --> 01:45:44,800 And when Thomas went out AT Perry, came in and basically 1727 01:45:45,200 --> 01:45:47,080 took over the Thomas role one for one. 1728 01:45:47,360 --> 01:45:50,720 What I'm actually pretty interested in is not playing AT 1729 01:45:50,800 --> 01:45:52,680 Perry. We talked about that. 1730 01:45:52,680 --> 01:45:55,400 We're excited for Olave. I think he could steal some of 1731 01:45:55,400 --> 01:45:57,640 the target share that was previously going to Thomas. 1732 01:45:58,320 --> 01:46:01,560 But what I'm interested in on this slate with the gross tight 1733 01:46:01,560 --> 01:46:05,640 ends in a game environment that I like is Juwan Johnson. 1734 01:46:06,120 --> 01:46:09,400 Juwan Johnson is a wide receiver in a tight ends body. 1735 01:46:09,400 --> 01:46:13,440 You know he's a converted wide receiver hasn't been doing a ton 1736 01:46:13,480 --> 01:46:17,120 this season he he missed a good amount of time to injury and but 1737 01:46:17,280 --> 01:46:20,760 I I think that you know. You get Jameis in there. 1738 01:46:20,960 --> 01:46:23,840 He's slinging it around. I think that any of these wide 1739 01:46:23,840 --> 01:46:25,760 receivers are live to have a big game. 1740 01:46:26,040 --> 01:46:28,720 And that's not to say I don't. I didn't mean to come off so 1741 01:46:28,720 --> 01:46:31,920 strong as to poo poo Shaheed. I just didn't want people to 1742 01:46:31,920 --> 01:46:33,800 change their. I don't think your opinion of 1743 01:46:33,800 --> 01:46:36,720 Shaheed should change. With respect to Michael Thomas 1744 01:46:36,720 --> 01:46:39,840 being out, it should change because Jameis is there and you 1745 01:46:39,840 --> 01:46:44,040 boost Shaheed for that reason. But I wouldn't expect his role 1746 01:46:44,040 --> 01:46:45,840 to be very different. He's still going to be running 1747 01:46:45,840 --> 01:46:49,360 the same type of routes. So it's it's purely just the 1748 01:46:49,360 --> 01:46:53,240 boost from Jameis now. He's not really going drafted in 1749 01:46:53,240 --> 01:46:57,840 dog bolt drafts right now so he he did have an 80% route share 1750 01:46:57,840 --> 01:47:02,040 last week and and and he's that that's definitely been it. 1751 01:47:02,040 --> 01:47:06,880 It seems like he sort of bounces between the 60 and the 80 and he 1752 01:47:06,880 --> 01:47:12,880 had a 24% target sprout run and and and so sorry, go make make 1753 01:47:12,880 --> 01:47:13,680 your point. Sorry. 1754 01:47:13,680 --> 01:47:17,440 No, no, that's yeah, I I think all of these Saints passing game 1755 01:47:17,440 --> 01:47:19,920 options are in play. The only one that I wouldn't 1756 01:47:19,920 --> 01:47:23,600 mess with this week for fantasy is AT Perry. 1757 01:47:23,800 --> 01:47:27,680 Not because I don't think that he's in play, but just because I 1758 01:47:27,680 --> 01:47:31,360 think that you can make better bets with Olave Shaheed and Juan 1759 01:47:31,360 --> 01:47:34,120 Johnson and AT Perry's interesting. 1760 01:47:34,160 --> 01:47:36,880 And if you're if you're like truly disturbed, he's probably 1761 01:47:36,880 --> 01:47:40,560 like Min Price on DraftKings SO. You go ahead and Chuck him in 1762 01:47:40,560 --> 01:47:44,720 there, but yeah, I I think the whole Saints offense is really 1763 01:47:44,720 --> 01:47:45,880 interesting. I think there's a lot of 1764 01:47:45,880 --> 01:47:49,280 volatility in what could happen this week if, you know, if you 1765 01:47:49,280 --> 01:47:53,520 get Jameis at quarterback, which kind of segues back into my 1766 01:47:53,600 --> 01:47:58,760 Taysom Hill point. So yeah, makes sense for sure. 1767 01:47:59,880 --> 01:48:04,280 Oh my God, this is, you know what this, this chart looks like 1768 01:48:04,280 --> 01:48:08,080 to me? It looks like and it looks like, 1769 01:48:08,080 --> 01:48:13,200 a plague of locusts warming towards me to eat my crops. 1770 01:48:14,360 --> 01:48:16,400 Well, I've got good news for you. 1771 01:48:16,520 --> 01:48:20,320 We're only going to talk about one player on this chart and one 1772 01:48:20,320 --> 01:48:22,680 player only, and that's Jaden Reed. 1773 01:48:22,920 --> 01:48:26,080 Because Jaden Reed is the best wide receiver on the Packers. 1774 01:48:26,280 --> 01:48:28,880 It's not close. I won't hear anything else like 1775 01:48:29,200 --> 01:48:32,240 Dobbs is fine. Christian Watson will be lucky 1776 01:48:32,240 --> 01:48:35,120 if his career is as good as Chase Claypools or Martavis. 1777 01:48:35,120 --> 01:48:36,680 Bryant's like, that's what he is. 1778 01:48:37,040 --> 01:48:40,000 You know we've we've already had the blueprint on this player 1779 01:48:40,000 --> 01:48:41,520 archetype. We've already seen it. 1780 01:48:41,720 --> 01:48:45,200 We got the red flags last season with Aaron Rodgers telling us 1781 01:48:45,200 --> 01:48:48,400 this guy's like fucking off and not paying attention and he's 1782 01:48:48,400 --> 01:48:50,480 not running the right routes or doing the right stuff. 1783 01:48:50,480 --> 01:48:53,640 He's not sharp in meeting rooms. Like we already knew that this 1784 01:48:53,640 --> 01:48:56,480 guy was a chuckle fuck and and this season like it's playing 1785 01:48:56,480 --> 01:49:00,960 out he he's not you know it's it was a room that was. 1786 01:49:01,440 --> 01:49:04,280 You know, completely devoid of an alpha wide receiver. 1787 01:49:04,280 --> 01:49:07,640 It was there for the taking and the alpha is Jaden Reed, baby. 1788 01:49:07,840 --> 01:49:11,680 And and Jaden Reed is truly delivering on what I thought was 1789 01:49:11,680 --> 01:49:13,760 a pretty dynamic college profile. 1790 01:49:14,120 --> 01:49:17,040 You know, I I had heard other people comp into Stefan Diggs 1791 01:49:17,040 --> 01:49:18,760 and I thought that was an appropriate comp. 1792 01:49:19,240 --> 01:49:21,560 And I'm, I'm juiced for Jaden Reed. 1793 01:49:21,560 --> 01:49:28,880 Jaden Reed to the Moon, Baby and well, I I hadn't seen the the 1794 01:49:28,880 --> 01:49:33,440 Stefan Diggs. Maybe I'm being argumentative 1795 01:49:33,440 --> 01:49:36,880 but I taught Stefan Diggs. He he he definitely was like 1796 01:49:37,520 --> 01:49:40,520 somebody who's small school and then stayed for a while. 1797 01:49:40,760 --> 01:49:45,400 But he had an outrageous like, dominator rating like outrageous 1798 01:49:45,600 --> 01:49:48,960 market share. I I don't think Jayden Reid did. 1799 01:49:49,320 --> 01:49:52,360 No, you're you're correct. He, Stefan Diggs certainly had a 1800 01:49:52,360 --> 01:49:54,680 much better college profile than Jayden Reid. 1801 01:49:54,920 --> 01:49:57,760 But Jayden Reid had enough similarities there and he did 1802 01:49:57,760 --> 01:49:59,640 have quite a bit of dynamism. Where? 1803 01:50:00,440 --> 01:50:01,880 Who's a great returner? Right. 1804 01:50:02,000 --> 01:50:04,160 Yep. And and that's that really 1805 01:50:04,160 --> 01:50:08,560 matters to me in, you know, predicting NFL success. 1806 01:50:08,560 --> 01:50:12,480 I I want to see guys with that level of dynamism and and you've 1807 01:50:12,480 --> 01:50:14,720 seen it. You know it's played out with a 1808 01:50:14,720 --> 01:50:18,200 lot of guys that are you know current stars in the NFL. 1809 01:50:18,200 --> 01:50:23,600 Like I I really didn't like Brandon IU coming out for his 1810 01:50:23,600 --> 01:50:27,880 entire profile, except his his return game stuff. 1811 01:50:28,480 --> 01:50:31,520 And that is the only reason why I was like maybe there's I'll 1812 01:50:31,520 --> 01:50:35,040 leave a light on for Brandon Iuk and and sure enough the guy is 1813 01:50:35,040 --> 01:50:38,840 out here crushing now. But there's there's lots of guys 1814 01:50:38,840 --> 01:50:42,480 where if you just if you were only going to follow like 1 1815 01:50:42,480 --> 01:50:45,760 little thread it's look for guys that are you know studs in the 1816 01:50:45,760 --> 01:50:50,120 return game where in college their coach is looking for a way 1817 01:50:50,280 --> 01:50:55,280 for them to touch the ball even more often And and that's to me 1818 01:50:55,280 --> 01:50:58,120 that's what Jaden Reed demonstrated and and he. 1819 01:50:58,400 --> 01:51:01,920 He's really showing out here at the next level, so excited to 1820 01:51:01,920 --> 01:51:05,240 see this guy going forward. I wouldn't be surprised at all 1821 01:51:05,560 --> 01:51:09,960 if next season, if Jaden Reed's ADP coming into best ball draft 1822 01:51:09,960 --> 01:51:14,600 season is like anywhere later than the 12th round, I'm going 1823 01:51:14,640 --> 01:51:17,200 to have a huge bag of Jaden Reed. 1824 01:51:17,240 --> 01:51:21,120 Like just absolutely monster. He could easily be my most 1825 01:51:21,120 --> 01:51:24,680 drafted player. Yeah, I I I was wondering where 1826 01:51:24,680 --> 01:51:27,360 where you're going to set the line there, but 12 rounds seems 1827 01:51:27,360 --> 01:51:34,720 pretty, pretty reasonable. Not not hot take enough and I 1828 01:51:34,720 --> 01:51:41,600 mean I I I feel like with these rookies who perform well like 1829 01:51:41,760 --> 01:51:44,120 it. It still is a red flag for me 1830 01:51:44,120 --> 01:51:49,960 that his, for example, his his final college season, his 1831 01:51:49,960 --> 01:51:52,720 receiving yards market share was only 25. 1832 01:51:52,960 --> 01:51:55,640 His dominator rating was only 24%. 1833 01:51:56,520 --> 01:52:04,480 And so I guess to me that mean that to me that makes it so that 1834 01:52:04,480 --> 01:52:08,280 like you know he should be priced somewhere between the 1835 01:52:08,280 --> 01:52:11,680 8:00 somewhere and now this is a wide range somewhere between 1836 01:52:11,680 --> 01:52:18,360 rounds 8 and 12 and and the fact that he's having a a good rookie 1837 01:52:18,360 --> 01:52:21,520 year and he'll be a second year player that will make that will 1838 01:52:21,520 --> 01:52:27,920 make him a target for sure. But I guess maybe I, I'm I'm I'm 1839 01:52:27,920 --> 01:52:31,320 in between saying you know I think what you're saying is 1840 01:52:31,320 --> 01:52:35,600 right where where he where he should be a priority target but 1841 01:52:35,600 --> 01:52:41,760 maybe I'm like like maybe maybe a a tad tad more hesitant just 1842 01:52:42,120 --> 01:52:45,600 I, I I guess I don't like the the college profile quite as 1843 01:52:45,600 --> 01:52:49,160 much as you do. So his his college dominator was 1844 01:52:49,160 --> 01:52:53,120 35.7%, that's 73rd percentile. He's pretty good. 1845 01:52:53,120 --> 01:52:57,200 His college target share 25 percent, 75th percentile. 1846 01:52:57,440 --> 01:53:00,440 And his Breakout age, which if you're if you're only looking at 1847 01:53:00,440 --> 01:53:04,120 like 2 data points for a college profile, you know active in the 1848 01:53:04,120 --> 01:53:06,840 return game. And Breakout Age is probably the 1849 01:53:06,840 --> 01:53:11,040 ones where if you're just having a really simple model, those 1850 01:53:11,040 --> 01:53:14,240 would be two things where. That's a a good chunk of signal 1851 01:53:14,240 --> 01:53:18,840 comes from those so he was 98th percentile breakout age at 18.4 1852 01:53:19,400 --> 01:53:24,120 and you know for for guys that didn't have spectacular counting 1853 01:53:24,120 --> 01:53:27,920 stats in college like and you're you're not wrong like if you go 1854 01:53:27,920 --> 01:53:33,840 through he had a really good you know 4th year he he missed 2019 1855 01:53:34,400 --> 01:53:36,960 right. But his his year in 20/21, he 1856 01:53:36,960 --> 01:53:40,800 had a really good year put up over 1000 yards on 59 targets, 1857 01:53:40,800 --> 01:53:45,680 26% target share. And then he also had just a gang 1858 01:53:45,680 --> 01:53:47,440 of special teams yards that year. 1859 01:53:48,440 --> 01:53:51,440 But you know, if you look at other guys who didn't have 1860 01:53:51,760 --> 01:53:54,600 fantastic production all through college and actually kind of a 1861 01:53:54,600 --> 01:53:58,760 similar shape of distribution of when he had his best year and 1862 01:53:58,760 --> 01:54:02,680 and what that looked like is Puka Nakua, he did nothing his, 1863 01:54:03,000 --> 01:54:05,720 you know? Freshman and sophomore years had 1864 01:54:05,720 --> 01:54:09,480 a really great junior year and then his his senior year dipped 1865 01:54:09,480 --> 01:54:11,880 off a little bit. Now with Puka you're missing the 1866 01:54:11,880 --> 01:54:16,560 dynamism and special teams and you know had a older breakout 1867 01:54:16,560 --> 01:54:19,320 age, worst target share, worst dominator. 1868 01:54:19,720 --> 01:54:23,480 So you know with with how excited everyone is about Puka. 1869 01:54:23,880 --> 01:54:28,200 I feel like if Puka is going before Jaden Reed next season, 1870 01:54:29,280 --> 01:54:31,160 I'll just give me right that that. 1871 01:54:31,160 --> 01:54:34,920 I think that's pretty fair and I'm probably being pretty harsh 1872 01:54:34,920 --> 01:54:38,360 on on the dominator rating stuff where he did actually have, he 1873 01:54:38,360 --> 01:54:41,760 did have a very strong freshman and junior year. 1874 01:54:43,560 --> 01:54:46,120 But I think it's good for you to throw a little cold water 'cause 1875 01:54:46,120 --> 01:54:51,480 I came out of the gate for Jayden Reid there and but good 1876 01:54:51,480 --> 01:54:54,680 at good, good, good and and hopefully, yeah, productive 1877 01:54:54,760 --> 01:55:00,600 discussion on on Reid. Anyone else that you wanted to 1878 01:55:00,600 --> 01:55:04,400 touch on here before we let the good folks go? 1879 01:55:05,480 --> 01:55:09,000 No, no, I I I'm like looking at it and there's guys I'd like to 1880 01:55:09,000 --> 01:55:13,960 talk about, but I don't know like it Is it worth bringing up 1881 01:55:13,960 --> 01:55:18,680 Jameson Williams again? Like, you know, it not really. 1882 01:55:18,680 --> 01:55:22,320 Is it Because he's still who he who, who he sort of thought he 1883 01:55:22,320 --> 01:55:28,040 was or or where he's doing really well on on this sort of 1884 01:55:28,240 --> 01:55:33,640 short and route share? He's getting the deep targets, 1885 01:55:33,640 --> 01:55:35,640 but it doesn't seem like they want to do anything more with 1886 01:55:35,640 --> 01:55:36,840 them. Yeah. 1887 01:55:36,840 --> 01:55:40,240 Can I can I put a little Jameson Williams blurb out there in the 1888 01:55:40,240 --> 01:55:41,480 world? Sure. 1889 01:55:42,080 --> 01:55:45,760 I think. Jamieson Williams bulls people 1890 01:55:45,760 --> 01:55:48,480 that you know if you got him in dynasty or you're excited to 1891 01:55:48,480 --> 01:55:52,600 draft him next year, I think we're fucked guys because he's 1892 01:55:52,600 --> 01:55:55,040 on the Lions. I think Jamieson Williams is the 1893 01:55:55,040 --> 01:55:57,120 most talented wide receiver on the Lions. 1894 01:55:57,480 --> 01:56:01,040 But what we've talked about earlier today about the way that 1895 01:56:01,040 --> 01:56:05,160 the Lions manage their talent and personnel, I I think that is 1896 01:56:05,160 --> 01:56:08,080 going to stymie Jamieson Williams development and his 1897 01:56:08,080 --> 01:56:10,240 involvement in this offense, I mean. 1898 01:56:10,840 --> 01:56:13,800 I hope they proved me wrong. I hope through the back half of 1899 01:56:13,800 --> 01:56:18,240 the season he, you know, his usage ramps up and we get to see 1900 01:56:18,240 --> 01:56:23,400 him truly blossom. But I I got a sneaking suspicion 1901 01:56:23,400 --> 01:56:26,280 this is going to be one of those players where we're super 1902 01:56:26,280 --> 01:56:30,040 frustrated with his usage. We're just, we're pissed off at 1903 01:56:30,040 --> 01:56:33,160 the Lions for not deploying him in the way that we think he 1904 01:56:33,160 --> 01:56:36,320 should be deployed. And I mean maybe we get 1905 01:56:36,320 --> 01:56:39,560 fortunate in that he gets to another team when he's young 1906 01:56:39,560 --> 01:56:42,440 enough and still has enough juice that that he can do 1907 01:56:42,440 --> 01:56:45,800 something. But from the limited and I'm not 1908 01:56:45,800 --> 01:56:49,120 a, you know, I'm not a qualified film grinder or anything like 1909 01:56:49,120 --> 01:56:51,360 that. But man, when I watch this guy, 1910 01:56:51,360 --> 01:56:54,320 I'm like, I mean that looks like a pretty good route to me. 1911 01:56:54,320 --> 01:56:58,560 Like he's, you know he's getting open every every time. 1912 01:56:58,560 --> 01:57:00,800 Like he he sure looks to be winning routes like. 1913 01:57:01,400 --> 01:57:04,360 I, you know, I'm not here, you know, as a route running expert 1914 01:57:04,360 --> 01:57:08,240 or anything, but for my, you know, my unsophisticated eyes, 1915 01:57:08,240 --> 01:57:11,320 I'm pretty sure it's good when there's a lot of space between 1916 01:57:11,320 --> 01:57:12,720 you and the defender guarding you. 1917 01:57:12,720 --> 01:57:16,280 So I don't know. That's that's all I have to say 1918 01:57:16,280 --> 01:57:20,320 about Jameson Williams. And then it feels like the 1919 01:57:20,320 --> 01:57:25,360 notice is somewhat similar on Rashi Rice where somebody super 1920 01:57:25,360 --> 01:57:27,680 excited. The start of the year was was 1921 01:57:28,040 --> 01:57:32,480 playing really well as a as he was getting more snaps and all 1922 01:57:32,480 --> 01:57:35,480 that sort of stuff. But then you look at last night 1923 01:57:35,480 --> 01:57:38,840 and and it looked like he barely played his route. 1924 01:57:38,840 --> 01:57:43,920 I guess his route percentage last night was just 52% and his 1925 01:57:44,360 --> 01:57:49,160 his 65% in week seven was was sort of like a true peak, which 1926 01:57:49,520 --> 01:57:52,120 really frustrating. Well, Draco, what you're 1927 01:57:52,120 --> 01:57:55,840 forgetting or failing to realize is that when you have a true 1928 01:57:55,880 --> 01:57:59,800 elite alpha like Justin Watson, you can't ever take him off the 1929 01:57:59,800 --> 01:58:04,760 field for Rashi Rice. So you know true dot true dot. 1930 01:58:05,120 --> 01:58:07,080 It just it it doesn't make any sense. 1931 01:58:08,200 --> 01:58:16,160 Yeah. And then I guess sorry I'm I'm 1932 01:58:16,160 --> 01:58:20,480 holding this up but I have I have guys who who I think we 1933 01:58:20,480 --> 01:58:24,840 should discuss the then the last one and I think this is the last 1934 01:58:24,840 --> 01:58:32,640 one is Khalil Shakur where it looks like since week 8 he's 1935 01:58:32,640 --> 01:58:39,160 been above a 70% root share every week which I think that's 1936 01:58:39,160 --> 01:58:43,680 that's pretty interesting and and and then last week he had a 1937 01:58:44,440 --> 01:58:48,360 a 15% target Brett Run, 32% weighted target Brett run. 1938 01:58:48,880 --> 01:58:56,880 So definitely not like a target dominant player, but given that 1939 01:58:56,880 --> 01:59:00,120 he plays on the Bills and he's he's running like a solid root 1940 01:59:00,120 --> 01:59:04,120 percentage, like fantasy relevant I think. 1941 01:59:05,040 --> 01:59:09,520 Yeah and it's it's kind of funny because that was my favorite 1942 01:59:09,520 --> 01:59:12,520 like Bill's dart throw receiver all offseason. 1943 01:59:12,520 --> 01:59:15,280 I just really like the talent profile and it was same the 1944 01:59:15,280 --> 01:59:18,560 season prior. I I really liked him, you know 1945 01:59:19,000 --> 01:59:24,080 two years ago and it's it's it kind of feels validating when a 1946 01:59:24,080 --> 01:59:27,920 team like gets to the same place that you have been where you're 1947 01:59:27,920 --> 01:59:30,560 like this guy should be on the field all the time for you guys. 1948 01:59:30,560 --> 01:59:33,360 Why is he not on the field? And then finally, you know, 1949 01:59:33,360 --> 01:59:36,080 through injury and other opportunities, you know, opening 1950 01:59:36,080 --> 01:59:39,200 up for him, it's like, Oh yeah, we should use this Khalil Shakur 1951 01:59:39,200 --> 01:59:42,280 guy, this Deontay Hardy guy is is truly just a punt returner. 1952 01:59:42,280 --> 01:59:44,880 Like it it should have been Khalil Shakur all the time, 1953 01:59:44,880 --> 01:59:47,200 like. And so you know one of those 1954 01:59:47,200 --> 01:59:50,480 things where it's frustrating to see the team, you know, you 1955 01:59:50,480 --> 01:59:52,080 always feel like you're so smart. 1956 01:59:52,080 --> 01:59:55,200 Then for finding that out before an NFL team, you're like I knew 1957 01:59:55,200 --> 01:59:56,720 Khalil Shakur was good all along. 1958 01:59:57,400 --> 01:59:59,680 It's like, yeah, well you know, we we don't know everything. 1959 01:59:59,680 --> 02:00:02,120 We don't know all the dynamics of maybe he's not actually able 1960 02:00:02,120 --> 02:00:05,760 to do some of the the things the team is asking him to do and 1961 02:00:05,760 --> 02:00:07,440 there might be other deficiencies that we're not 1962 02:00:07,440 --> 02:00:09,600 Privy to. But you know, from a fantasy 1963 02:00:09,600 --> 02:00:12,760 perspective, he always looked like the most intriguing option 1964 02:00:13,240 --> 02:00:15,560 on the team there. Really liked him from a cost 1965 02:00:15,560 --> 02:00:18,720 adjusted standpoint compared to Gabe Davis. 1966 02:00:18,880 --> 02:00:21,600 Not that I didn't draft Gabe Davis, who I also thought had a 1967 02:00:21,600 --> 02:00:25,320 pretty good price this season, but I I wouldn't be surprised at 1968 02:00:25,320 --> 02:00:29,120 all if by next year. We see Khalil Shakur and Gabe 1969 02:00:29,120 --> 02:00:32,920 Davis more as like a 2A2B, and Diggs is still the clear, you 1970 02:00:32,920 --> 02:00:38,000 know, alpha in that offense. So I'm sort of saying fantasy 1971 02:00:38,000 --> 02:00:45,120 relevant but not like not like a you got a stardom guy no. 1972 02:00:45,120 --> 02:00:48,080 But definitely worth you know worth keeping an eye on roster 1973 02:00:48,080 --> 02:00:50,040 bowl. You know could could be a a min 1974 02:00:50,040 --> 02:00:52,880 salary punt for DFS or something like that. 1975 02:00:52,880 --> 02:00:56,520 Right, 'cause like he had, he had a he had 115 yards last week 1976 02:00:56,520 --> 02:01:01,000 but it was 71 yards after the catch and and and he did have 1977 02:01:01,000 --> 02:01:02,800 the touchdown. So obviously he played really 1978 02:01:02,800 --> 02:01:05,440 well. You'll you'll like to see that 1979 02:01:06,360 --> 02:01:11,800 but then in in in other weeks where he's had similar routes it 1980 02:01:11,800 --> 02:01:17,120 it's been a more sort of like. You're you're getting like 2 1981 02:01:17,120 --> 02:01:23,480 targets, 4 targets, 6 targets, like middling target count. 1982 02:01:24,200 --> 02:01:28,600 And so you you do need the big play, the big breakaway plays to 1983 02:01:29,440 --> 02:01:35,840 to get a good score from him. But we're we're rostering and 1984 02:01:36,240 --> 02:01:39,760 maybe hoping for an improved and even further improved situation 1985 02:01:39,760 --> 02:01:43,480 or God forbid like sort of like a desperation play. 1986 02:01:44,200 --> 02:01:47,680 Yeah and and those just as a note those 71 yards after catch 1987 02:01:47,680 --> 02:01:51,360 pretty much all came on that one breakaway down play that he had 1988 02:01:51,480 --> 02:01:55,160 which was a it was a great play. Like he he honestly showed 1989 02:01:55,440 --> 02:01:59,240 really, really good like it it was like a punt return style 1990 02:01:59,240 --> 02:02:00,920 play he was weaving through defenders. 1991 02:02:00,920 --> 02:02:05,200 He he was great in space. Yeah super exciting to watch. 1992 02:02:05,200 --> 02:02:10,760 So for me the most relevant Khalil Shakur you know notes 1993 02:02:10,760 --> 02:02:13,360 that we can give the people is when you're drafting playoff 1994 02:02:13,360 --> 02:02:18,680 best ball and and we'll go into the situations when you should 1995 02:02:18,680 --> 02:02:22,080 be going deeper in a team and and building out those larger 1996 02:02:22,080 --> 02:02:25,120 stacks of like 3-4 and even five players on a team. 1997 02:02:25,560 --> 02:02:29,040 But when you're doing that, Khalil Shakur would certainly be 1998 02:02:29,040 --> 02:02:32,040 an interesting one to tack on to your larger bill stacks. 1999 02:02:33,040 --> 02:02:34,000 Yeah. Yeah. 2000 02:02:34,000 --> 02:02:38,680 Makes makes sense for sure. So I think, I think that's it, 2001 02:02:38,800 --> 02:02:40,720 right? I think so. 2002 02:02:41,960 --> 02:02:47,120 So thanks everyone for joining and glad to have you listening 2003 02:02:47,120 --> 02:02:49,160 to the show. And everybody have a great day. 2004 02:02:49,600 --> 02:02:51,680 Thanksgiving holiday, Happy Thanksgiving. 2005 02:02:51,680 --> 02:02:54,720 I'll see you next Tuesday. See you next Tuesday.