We've got another week of preseason data to discuss, and
we're joined by Etr's chief spreadsheet, Socialist Michael
Leone. Break it all down, this is best.
Ball brunch, I mean. Let's go.
Pat Fryer Helmo. This is why.
This is why I'm hot. Anita, hint a hand.
Job fix your side, Jamar, and also play chase.
You can't handle the heat. It looks like we're finally
welcome everybody. Leonie, welcome to the show I
saw you were drafting with Silva last night at 555.
Have you mentally recovered from that yet?
No, there is no mental recover. We'll never get back to 100%.
Guys, take Dalvin Cook in the sixth round.
We did not, but we'll we'll just do the best we can to get to
99%, but there's no return to my previous form.
Where where is Dalvin Cook and Evan Silva's top 150?
Is he like, is he like running back 19?
We need that. I need that, I need that
information. Cuz his immediate reaction was
like, so bullish. Like, I couldn't believe how
bullish it was, why I was having, yeah.
He's got him around 70th overall.
I love that. Just he's the best.
Yeah. We were talking about before we
went live here, how we're feeling a little bit burnt out
of drafting. It's kind of the final stretch.
We're also had a debate on multi tabling, drafting what Davis
Davis was pro multi tabling. You know, I'm definitely burnt
out on multi tabling. My multi tabling days are behind
me I think. Here's the thing though.
Here's the thing. If you're gonna dedicate the
time to drafting and not reading or or whatever, whatever your
thing is. Really, dedicate that time to
drafting. Don't be, don't be.
Look, don't be doing one draft and and on Discord and on
Twitter or whatever, just sit down and knock the drafts out
that that is my thesis on it because I still want to be a
human being. Just said sit down there.
You said you take your dog for a walk and do 5 drafts at once, so
there's no sitting there. How do you do two things that is
that isn't? Really difficult.
I want to be rich. You're multi tabling it while
like doing something active at the same time.
Yes, I'm I'm enriching my dog's life.
I'm getting my steps in and I'm hammering.
I'm hammering. Hammering drafts.
Yeah. See, my thing is like when I
wanna do a draft, I feel like if I'm multi table, I just do a
worse version of all those drafts than I would have done if
I just did one draft. So then.
Yeah, but multiply. Those drafts and I'm exhausted.
So you're not wrong, but you have to multiply.
So let's say you're EV in basketball mania, let's say.
Get your expected value in each draft.
Napkin math. Let's make it $50.00 and then
let's say you're 20% or so worse on every draft.
Well, would you rather have a bunch of $50 EV drafts stacked
on top of each other, or would you rather have exponentially
three times more drafts of $38 of expected value?
I would rather have like. I would rather have like 700
teams drafted by week one of the season to to.
Get as much I have 7. 100 teams drafted though, It's just that I
just didn't pull the table them very much.
He's just, he's just cut into my life more often.
Yeah, that's that, says. I'd rather have like a horrible
hour of drafting and have it be miserable, but like, yeah, knock
out three or four then. Yes, Leone, Leone and I agree.
Because I still wanna do other stuff.
I still wanna, I still wanna go golf.
I still wanna skateboard. Like I I I don't wanna just be
drafting 14 hours a day. I'm like 95% slow drafts though
is how I get around. That's even worse for me.
I I can't do the the mental. I mean, it depends how many just
a minute at a time, but. Davis Davis just did the You
gotta turn off the underdog notifications.
You just no no, I I see. I did.
No, I did.
The other thing. I have every notification on my
phone except for text messages. Underdog, DraftKings and
drafters just turned off on my phone.
So the only notifications I get right now are.
When I'm on the clock or if someone texted me.
No, the move. The move is you You burn through
all the. Because I've I've been in slow
draft hell. OK, I've.
I've gone. I've gone there.
The move is you get all the drafts done or you get as many
as you can and then you set a timer for like 10 minutes before
the next time you'll time out and then you turn off the
notifications on underdog. So you're not gonna get, you're
not gonna get bugged. You just have the timer going.
When the timer goes off, it's time to go check your app again.
No, no. If anything, if anything I would
turn my phone on do not disturb, but I just made three picks.
I just made three picks while you were talking like that.
That's that's that's. This is like the opposite of
your multi tabling point though the point like it cuts into your
life more if you're doing it that way, correct?
I'm I'm just on a I'm on a fantasy football podcast right
now it would be it would be sure more it would be less efficient.
Be focused and be present with us, please.
I'm gonna do. I'm gonna do my I'm not fast
drafting. During the show up I was.
Doing your best. While I was talking, you were
drafting. But I got the gist.
I got the gist. You understood the third of the
words you said. That's fine.
Let's move on here to the risers and fallers.
There's a lot to chat through this week.
Here's the 10 largest risers from this past week, a bunch of
big movement. I think the past.
Before P season hit, we weren't seeing 10% increases in ADP from
many players. This week we have 10 of them at
least that increase in ADP by at least 10%.
So a lot of movement here. I wanted to start with talking
through Zeke, and I think also Ramondre fits in this discussion
as well. He's on the list of the fallers.
Zeke for me, is someone who I was drafting the free agent
running backs. I was not drafting Zeke for
whatever reason. Maybe that's a leak and I've had
a hard time stomaching this new price.
So start with you Leone. What do you think about Zeke
ranked now at sort of the 150 range for a DP?
It hasn't felt like a good Click to me, but curious what your
thoughts are. I mean, it seems outrageous I
was drafting some Zeke. Passed his original ad like his
original ADP was probably correct.
Like like nothing really changed except we know he's on a team
now. But like that was.
I mean what were the likelihood he wasn't gonna sign with
someone? Like he was probably pretty low
that he wasn't gonna sign at all.
So I I don't really think that much has changed for for Zeke.
Yeah. Anybody want to make the pro?
Zeke Case, I'll make a slight pro.
Case it's very it's very easy. He gets, he gets the goal line
work and Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris don't play at all.
And he he he fat guys his way to 550 combo yards but eight
touchdowns. Yep.
Yeah. And that's, that's it.
Like I think you know if you need some early season running
back help in particular where like I mean he's not going to be
super productive in the early season, but.
So it's like he'll be the least dusty in the early part of the
year and you just hope any falls in the end zone a couple times.
I think around pick like 150 is is okay.
I mean, I'm certainly not going to be excited to take him, but
it's when you're building out these running back rooms, you
know you get to that range and you're like, do I want to reach
a bit for Taji Spears? Cuz I want the upside or
whatever or. So I have upside.
I have a Javante, right? I've got maybe a briefs hall or
someone like that. And what I'm really looking for
is somebody just helped me get along in the early part of the
year or just a guy that I know will have some kind of role for
most of the year. So this is part of a larger
discussion and maybe we can get into it a little bit later, but
I've really noticed, starting right about after the Qb's go
Dak, Kirk, Gino and Daniel Jones.
There's basically no one I want to pick.
You know, it's like horrible. So honestly, I can't believe and
no one lets Soccer Dave know that I'm saying this.
I'm just taking guys I like. I'll take Jalen Warren 10 spots
ahead. I will take Rashi Rice 15 spots
ahead. I will take, and especially once
you get to the van Jefferson, KJ Osbourne, Rondell Moore,
Jonathan Mingo, like literally, those guys are just not
clickable for me. I'm never clicking Adam.
I will just take. I will just take Jalen Wyatt or
Jalen Hyatt. 20 spots ahead of ADP.
I don't care because I'm not clicking these total dust balls.
I I I know Leone is cringing right now, but like DJ Shark,
what does DJ Shark do for this team?
Nothing. Nothing.
I. Here's here's what I did.
So I was in a Pitbull right before.
It's the Pitbull slow and I am sitting there and I only have
four wide receivers and I had Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis.
I didn't. I don't have Josh Allen on this
team. I forget.
I think I have Deshaun Watson or Dak or someone like that.
So I'm going to need maybe maybe two more quarterbacks, right?
At least one more. And I've got this Bills thing
built out. So what's the what's the smart
thing to do when I need that fifth wide receiver?
I ended up taking Juju. I I did it.
I took Juju's misuse there and it was the grossest thing ever.
But to your point, there was so there's no one in.
I was like literally like 20 pics of you're.
You're just scrolling, you're scrolling and you're like,
you're like. Like so, like Donovan Peoples
Jones. What does Donovan Peoples Jones
do for this team? Like, not.
Like, I just. I don't know.
I kind of. Like TVJ too.
I like a few of these guys. You guys are talking about you
guys. Like, I'm just taking Luke
Musgrave 20 spots ahead. I'm taking Michael Wilson in the
16th round. Like, I just, I'm not.
I'm not taking these dust balls. Wow, this is like full on live.
A little capitulation from from Davis right here.
It is. It is.
Wild How bad Round 10 is? Round 10 is like the worst
round. In the juju as wide receiver 5
is like completely fine you guys are.
So. Just jump the shark on juju like
you guys are acting like you're being poisoned.
To take Juju as I am, I'm that's like how you should be building
is like. Not overdoing.
I know, Leone, but I fucking hate it.
I did it, OK? Jesus.
That's why honestly, like structurally, that's why I have
so much Gino Smith and Anthony Richardson, because they're,
they're going in a range where I do not like the skill position
players. So it's just so and it's so easy
to take Anthony Richardson round 10 and then you're like, all
right, I can take Alec Pierce or I can take Josh Downs and it's
completely fine. Yeah, I I kind of agree with
that. I think some of these guys like
Myers, Juju, I like Myers. I like Myers is good.
Yeah. Some of these guys I like, but I
I kind of agree with you. Like, I don't know, I've been
when I get to the running backs and it's like P Ryan and a
chain. I've been like saying I just
kind of want Warren over those guys and reaching like 10 spots
of ADP. Maybe maybe that's dumb, but
I've been doing some things like that.
No, I think it's fine. I just learned my.
Most warrants ahead of those guys.
I think that's fine. I mean, you still want to mesh
your rankings with the ADP. So I don't think it's like
you're not like. I don't think anyone's
suggesting to blindly draft off ADP.
It's like there's a balance between the two, right?
Like you don't want to. You don't want to like double
count and be like. More, More So what I'm saying
Michael is like round 14. Do I need to take Adam Phelan
because Adam Phelan is is the ADP guy there or do I take a guy
who I like really like his range of outcomes better?
Like is is reaching in round 14 structurally really like, I
agree. I'm not reaching in round seven.
I'm not taking I'm not taking Guys in the top 100 picks, you
know, 10 spots ahead of ADP. Honestly, probably hardly ever.
But round 14, like I just do not.
I do not care. I do.
I I'm taking. The draft capital doesn't,
really. Matter as much at that.
Point and we're getting new information right now, so being.
$3 on a $1.00 guy like, I don't know.
Yeah, I think it's fine. I I mean, some of it depends on
like how you're structured like dealing might just add nothing
to your team, right? Like, but I do think acting like
a guy like him is completely unusable and best ball is like
in manage. Sure, like you're just crossing
Adam Feeling off Like there's no situation on the planet where
you're drafting Adam Feeling in a managed leak, right?
Like. Yeah, this was just all this was
all This was all a long con to get you on the show and explain
to everyone why you need to be drafting Adam Feeling.
Well, I I barely have any. But like, you're acting like a
start. I mean, a starting wide receiver
in best ball is is worth being picked at something, yeah.
No, I I agree. I just think feeling's been
egregiously priced all year and I it's very difficult for me to
select him. But I did take him over the
weekend once because he felt so like a lot.
I I barely, Yeah. I'm.
Yeah, I'm. I mean, I'm.
He fell to me in a like a Davis gave.
But yeah, he fell to me in a bulldog like I think 30 picks
past ADP. And at that point when it's like
him versus like, I don't know, Khalil Shakir, like those were
some of the odd receivers available.
I'm like, I'm just taking like, this is fine for this is where
feeling should go here, right? Like, that's totally.
It's one of the things you were like 2. 22 Atwell versus Adam
Thielan I know, I know where my chips are placed on that one.
Well, fair enough, but I mean, I.
Actual ceiling on 2/2 Atwell like I mean you guys talk about,
I mean David you talk about ceiling a lot, but like what is
the? Scores he scores 270 yard
touchdowns in the three-week Sprint and.
What if he's the guy you need, Leon, think about that.
All right, let's keep this. Let's keep this thing on track.
We're already talking about two, two Atwell and and then at 13.
Let's I do want to say with the with like there is something to
to Leon's point on dealing like because Theon's been expensive
enough that that we have to like think about the talent.
Case we like I've I've often made the case that he's watched,
but like I have a ton of Devonte Parker and like Devonte Parker
rates terribly and a lot of the other things that I that I like.
It's just that he's priced at a level where you're like he's
just starting my receiver. So as soon as dealing does get
to the point where all you need to make the case for him is that
he's just starting my receiver, then I do think we should be
open to taking him. It's just that.
I just think he hasn't been priced like that for most of the
Yeah, he's been priced above Mingo, which to me has made
absolutely zero sense. That's why I've had none of him,
cuz it's like, why would I ever click dealing over Mingo?
But now that he slides, Sure. Anyway, So what?
Was with the chart slander. I mean, I think Chart's fine.
Well, so Chart, I think he's okay too.
But man, I'm a little worried about Chart with the injury
stuff. And again, this is just one data
point. But if you look at Harmon's like
reception perception stuff, he was literally like the worst
wide receiver that Harmon charted like last year.
And it wasn't even close. Like his, I think he's kind of
known as this like athletic guy that can win deep.
And he did do that a little bit last year.
Like, his yard for route run aren't terrible, but his yard
for route run is like worse than Devante Parker's.
But he goes like 40 picks earlier and he's paid less than
Devante Parker. And then you don't have to
compare every pick to like somebody goes late.
But it's just like if I can get the routes like deep threat guy
that like maybe doesn't have anything left in the tank, I can
just wait a while and get them onto.
Yeah, I also think. Take Michael Wilson Than him if
I'm betting on a guy running 9 routes on a crappy team.
I'll I'll bet. Did you charge against Michael
Wilson? I'll bet you will.
I'll sure 5050 bucks. 50 bucks. Michael Wilson.
More Fantasy Points Week 15/16/17.
Half point PPR. I mean, you've changed the bet,
but yeah. Sure, that's the bet.
That's the bet. That's the bet we're making.
That's. Not the only consideration, but
make it make it second-half of the season or something like
last last 16. Sure.
Week 8 to 17? Sure, Sure.
OK. OK, Let's keep this on track
here. DJ Moore, I want to talk.
About It's not on track, Sam. It's long enough.
DJ Moore is up 6 picks. Why?
I don't really. I don't really know.
What Congrats. Congrats to him on catching a
screen pass can. You get.
So yeah, it's it's purely off that camp highlight.
Yeah, like this one. OK, I will have like so close to
zero of any pick in the first five rounds.
I think I will have the heaviest fade on.
DJ Moore. I I wouldn't necessarily have if
he was at like pick 50, but now that he's rising like, man, I'm
gonna have like 00. I've got more. 2% on 285
underdog teams, yeah. Let me like a really high stakes
team randomly, because those are the drafts where he he falls.
Before he falls. Let me make the bear case,
because I'm, I think I'm the more bold.
So I have 11 1/2 percent DJ Moore, and I thought he was a
pretty strong pick at the 4-5 turn where you could pair his
potential breakout with Fields. Yeah, and I have some there.
I I that's the. Reason was reasonable.
I mean that's. Yeah and and you know you could.
I wrote an article about like, how it was pretty easy actually
because borough the dynamics of the draft for really until
Borough's calf strain meant that often because of the late second
round Adp's. Someone has my home.
Someone might have Alan, some might have Hertz on the front
half of the board so you could push fields around and you had
borough was covered. The chaser Higgins drafters
usually there without a quarterback.
They'll take borough. Fields will come back to the mid
5th if you just go ahead and reach for DJ Moore in the late
4th. And I have a bunch of teams
constructed like that. If you're taking more in the
early 4th, there's no chance you're getting in with Fields
and I do really. It's like not.
And here's the other thing, I do have some more teams with Drake
London, where I took Drake London in the 4th and then Moore
came around to the early 5th and now I've got that little mini
going. But there's no correlation.
That's really. I mean I guess you could get
pits at the end of the OR the beginning of the OR the end of
the seventh, sorry. Pits pits has been falling.
I've I've got some yeah I did. I did a a basketball mania this
morning on a Kelsey team but I took Kyle pits in the eighth
round cuz I was like, yeah, I'm just gonna so.
You could do a more eighth, more 4th pits, eighth thing, but I
don't know. I mean, I just think he's so
much less appealing if I know I'm locked out of fields and I
don't understand why he's risen up.
I thought he was like an early fifth round value.
That I was OK reaching on in the late 4th to get that stack, but
now in the early 4th he just feels it coming recently.
I think it's worth keeping in mind that he started where he's
going now, right? Like, he started there, yeah,
And he dropped. Like when when when it was only
nerds, when it was only nerds drafting off of the the
spreadsheets, he went down. And now that now that people are
seeing real football and we have more like bachelors drafters,
he's going back up. Yeah.
And I mean you've just got the highlight and I I think it
didn't take people much to move them back up because the market
kind of initially wanted him here anyway.
Like for a while there like you had to, it was like 3-4, you had
to stack fields and more like early, like very early.
And then it got to four or five, which was like as you said, Pat,
like that's totally fine. Like that makes a lot of sense.
And then, I don't know, I don't want to like it doesn't take.
Anyone who does very much projections work to just be like
the past attempts just aren't there unless he earns a 30%
target share. And he's never been a 30% target
share guy. So it's just.
I mean he he could be there multiple ways that the that the
fade loses, yeah. He could be loses.
It's just I'm fine making that. I I wouldn't say I'm not scared
by it because I love DJ more like I think he's awesome but
like the it's just kind of like you you need some outliers
things to happen. Yeah, for sure.
I think what people the Bulls will point to is that Justin
Fields was a very good passing prospect in college when he, you
know, was surrounded by stud wide receivers.
So you know, I can squint and excuse some of Fields stuff from
early in his career cuz he was dealing with, you know, Darnell
Mooney as his wide receiver. One like, I kind of get it but
it still feels like way too priced up.
Like I I don't know. And also like DJ Moore, he's
he's what like? The 20th best receiver in the
NFL. Like, I don't think he's like a
top ten, even top 15 wide receiver.
If I was to go through him and rank him like he's good.
But is he really that? Is he really that good?
That's a good point. I'd probably say he's top 10 to
15. But even still, like, you've got
to, I mean, make a big leap on his it's not.
To draft him where it is really not a criticism of DJ Moore, who
all of us have loved for a long time.
It's just the reality of the situation that he's in and the
fact that they added other talented guys to theoretically
catch passes at the same time. Like you, you may be in a way.
I don't know if this is true or not.
You'd maybe be more bullish if it was like DJ Moore on an
island with Justin Fields. But like the fact that like, oh,
Mooney is like this guy who's earned targets and Chase
Claypool is this total unknown and they have Cole Command who
they're gonna run up there for 90% of the snaps.
Like I Sam, I do agree, like it definitely has been forgotten
that Fields was this like Uber talented he he was not drafted
to run for 1000 yards as a quarterback.
This is not like an Anthony Richardson situation.
I guess with Fields too, though, it's not so much an indictment
that like, like, I'm not saying Fields sucks and can't pass, but
I'm saying they're not going to call a lot of past plays, right?
And he takes a lot of sacks and he scrambles a lot.
Like those things are who he is. Like, not even necessarily like
those the it's just hard to get to the past attempts even if he
is good. Yes, yeah.
Yeah. And I just think you know not
not to pick on this comment in the chat.
You know he's making the comparison to to Diggs and
people are making the comparison to A.J.
Brown. Like I think that's the problem.
Guys like DJ Moore is not in the same tier of wide receive.
Even Diggs in Minnesota like looked way better by Harmon's
like chartings like Harmon, you know likes more and you know the
advanced metrics like more but it's not the same tier as Digg.
Yeah, it's like it's it's a stretch.
It's like. Like we we were on Diggs.
So like it's not like we're not aware of this stuff.
Can't like, like, I think like Davis, we had a silver bullet
team that almost won that year with Josh Allen and David.
Diggs was also a like a sixth round pick that year.
He he switched teams, right? Like, wasn't he like?
Yeah, yeah. But that was a I had.
I had Josh Allen. I had Josh Allen and Diggs.
That was a different time. Yeah.
That's true. Yeah.
It's probably similar wide
receiver range that DJ Moore is going out and like.
The comparison to the Hurt stuff too, to me is like Wild too.
Like it's just it's not to say like.
It's not the same. All right, let's.
Move on. I think I don't know if I if I
was I'm happy now to basically take none but I have 11% so I'm
gonna maybe I'll float down to 7% or something by the end of
the summer and I think I I'm perfectly happy.
Like I'll be very pleased with the way I played it.
If I was in your guys shoes like and I saw DJ Moore in the middle
of the 4th, I probably take some because I do think he's got the
potential to. Combine the best, you know, the
best quarterback play that he's ever had, a clear number one in
an offense and Justin feels takes a step forward and like
you really couldn't take him over Christian Watson, you just,
you couldn't do that, you know, Right?
Like, yeah, I mean, based on that, I guess in big Packers
they play. Prerequisites, you know.
Yeah, but I think he pays off pretty nicely.
At the middle of the 4th if he. Like all three of those things
could happen and he'll just be like, OK, that that's why.
That's the part I don't, I don't agree.
I think you're going to be very happy with a fourth round
receiver who is a clear number one and his quarterbacks to step
forward cuz they're going to throw more if that happens.
I'm projecting. They better.
I mean they better. I'm protecting to throw like way
more already. So yeah, but what do you have
his target chair? Probably something reasonable,
right? 25%, probably like 25% with like
a ceiling of like 30%. Well, in that ceiling outcome,
you see he's not, he's not paying off pretty easily 30%.
Oh, I'm sure he is. But like when you mix like the
bats on, like, yeah, yeah, but like just the mouth is so
against him in targets like it's hard to even like, I mean for
him to like he might have like 100 targets like, oh God.
I mean look, I mean that is that is so, that is so dire.
Yeah, it's not good. Yeah, maybe.
Maybe. I'm off on that.
But I mean, no, no 100 target season for him could be a 30%
target. I mean that's point that's 25%
of 400. So, like, it's it's not really
that far off, yeah. Justin Fields's passing line
last year was not that much better than Cooper Cups
receiving line in 2021. I'm that serious, Leone, That is
people, people say, we people say, people say Leone has his
nose buried too far in the spreadsheets.
But that is, that is evidence of just a sharp analytical mind,
right? It is about once in a while.
Let's move on to Darren Waller here.
He's also kind of a just preseason hype highlights.
Riser to some extent. It's not like we learned new
information about his role. I am kind of out on him at this
rising ADP just to age concerns like I am chasing, I'm chasing.
You're chasing. Yeah.
I mean, I see the ceiling. I see the ceiling on the target
share. I can see how he is just the
Giants clear number one wide receiver.
I think he'll play in the slot. I think he'll play on the
outside. They'll kind of move him around
and ski stuff for him, but. For months we've known this, but
this is so the the the ADP change is just, you know, I mean
it's it's that old fantasy adage like, oh, I gotta see it, you
know. And now people have seen it.
They've seen that all this stuff that the guys at training camp,
you know, there was that there was that story that the the
giant sent him home from practice one day because Daniel
Jones wouldn't throw to anyone else in practice.
And then we saw it in the game and everyone's like, oh shit,
it's, it's real. And then the other thing with
Waller is that people have been so snake bitten with him.
I think that was a huge part of why he was so cheap to begin
with. Is that every, like everyone's
got a Darren Waller story, like oh, I drafted this great team, I
got a sick value on Darren Waller and then I just held him
on the bench forever and he did nothing, you know, or whatever.
He still. Kyle Pitts last year, Davis,
just say just say no because I think we had a bet on that one.
No, I think you and I had a bet on that one lately.
I'm pretty indifferent on Waller right now.
I don't know. It seems fine, like Pat was
making a good point about like the correlation stuff.
Like, I really do like Daniel Jones at Bell.
Used to like, yeah. To just structurally take like
elite tight end and know you can get Daniel Jones at good.
Stack seems like I was doing that a lot.
When he was in the 7th, I would do that a lot like I'd be like,
oh sweet, I'll just take and you have Cooper Cup and then you'd
reach for Dan for at the time, reach for Darren Waller a little
bit in the you know, like the 704 or whatever.
Then you go back and get Jones. It was a lot of fun.
But this new price is nuts to me.
Yeah, you do. You do have to take him here.
I don't know over some nuts but. It's definitely he went in FFPC
main slow that I'm in right now. He went in the third round, like
middle of the third, so he's definitely.
I haven't seen him not go in the third round.
Yeah, if you was, it's. Been two years of kind of poor
performance from, I mean, mostly due to injury, like you can
chalk it up to injury, but it has been since 2020 that he's
really been good. So yeah.
Like, like as a market, like you're weighing the risk reward.
And like, early on it was like, oh, people don't realize that
like Waller. Can get down the field and it's
gonna be like the wide receiver one.
And now it's like people have totally forgotten what you said,
Sam, That like, yes, I've been good for a couple years and he's
kind of older, like. Yeah, the thing with him too, my
last point on on Waller is just if the Giants wide, like I do
want exposure to Daniel Jones. So if the market was forcing me
to pay a premium for Jalen Hyatt, Darius Layton, Isaiah
Hodgins, then I think I would capitulate and take some Waller
cuz I want some Jones stacks. But man, those wide receivers
are just. Completely free.
So I do understand like it can be Week 17 and and Waller is the
guy and not those wide receivers.
But just like cost adjusted, I'm just like, man, let me let me
stack up two of those wide receivers for nothing and pass
on Waller. Look, I will eventually have
probably like 25% Darren Waller because in two years everyone's
going to be like he's dust. And he's going to be an 18
round. And yeah, and it's like, yeah,
but he's a big wide receiver, place tight ends.
And he still can do that even though he's going to, you know,
get a rotational usage now because he's because he's old.
But at this, I don't want to be in on the guy who's got a rising
price, who wasn't good in 2021, like leaving aside 2022.
And he had this really deep a dot and was kind of used to like
clear space for Devonte Adams. And I mean that's that's a big
red flag in its own right, but. 20/21 was also a down year and
he turns 31 in September and he's dealt with the number of
soft tissue injuries over the course of his career.
Like this just strikes me as a very fragile, like elite tight
end is already kind of a lower advance rate, more of a playoff
bet. But if it's a playoff bet and
I'm taking an older player, that also worries me.
So brutal for my pro I I was just checking stuff this morning
and I I did get a little bit of cold sweats seeing.
I had just didn't realize how much Kyle Pitts I had.
Seeing $997.00 of entry fees associated with Kyle Pitts just
to this point, with a lot more drafts left to go, is like kind
of making me feel feverish that that's a lot of it's a lot of
Kyle Pitts. I have stopped taking Rashad
Penny but every time I I refresh my my exposures to he goes out.
He's still at the top. It's the slow drafts where you
took him a month. It's the slow draft.
That's finishing up. I actually didn't realize what
it was until now. You're right, it's all my.
I have Pat. I have that same problem.
I keep trying to get Penny off the top of my exposure list, but
he just keeps. You can't get him off there.
It's brutal. I got a little bit of, I got a
little bit of alpha here before we move on to to do spawn on
draftking slow drafts. So when you enter them, that's
the ADP and the ranks that stays in that individual draft.
So I just entered like, let's say you entered 10 slow drafts
on Monday. It is Monday.
You enter tensile drafts today. Whatever ADP changes happen over
the next 10 days will not be reflected inside of that.
So you're drafting off of stale ADP.
So that's just something to keep in mind as you're doing the
DraftKings drafts. Draftking slows are a nightmare
and I won't do them. I'm in 31 right now.
Been 26. I feel like the $10 ones like
it's so plus EV that like if I auto's got half the rounds I.
Have That's the only way I have a chance of finishing the $10 to
do the slows, so I might do it. Could you just put in like ETR
ranks and auto draft? You gotta I still don't know
where to adjust my positional settings on DraftKings.
You gotta adjust something there cuz I ended up like 4
quarterbacks on a team or something like I ought to draft
when I was in Italy. I I'm gonna do that on drafters.
I'm gonna I'm gonna upload ranks and just and set click enable
auto pick to fire cuz I won't be able to finish.
I did the star trick on and sometimes like, you don't know
how far, how far down to go on the stars.
So I did like a Bears Falcons thing and I went all the way
down. I starred Matt Collins.
So I got to the level Round 8. Matt Collins.
Yeah well I got no, so I'm in round 20 and I had Anthony
Richardson and I was like oh, I actually could use another tight
end. So I'm gonna get Jelani Woods.
But Matt Collins was higher in the queue so I was like going to
change the queue and I didn't succeed.
So now I'm just like stuck with Matt Collins in my 20 drop pick.
But the DraftKings positional limits, I don't know how they
work but they gave me Jelani Woods.
They wouldn't let me auto Matt Collins.
So. Thank you for DraftKings, the
positional limits are. I don't even know where to
change them. I don't know.
I only have like 7 receivers and they were like that's enough.
That's enough. Yeah, they're way too low on
like running back, wide receiver, The positions you want
to draft the most, that's. So brutal bunch.
They're a bunch of like, you know, you draft like Will Levis
and Trey Lance in the 20th. Round, yeah.
Well, anyways, let's let's move on here.
James Cook. Leoni.
The Bills Homer in the house. Are you chasing up this, this
James Cook's team? I don't know.
Initially I was not. I I'm a little worried that,
like, I just don't know what the workload, you know, potential
for him really truly is. I was drafting a ton of him
early in the offseason, but I know Levitan likes him a lot.
I know Gretsch called him a target, even with his ADP
rising. So maybe there's more there than
I'm seeing. I'm just a little concerned that
where he's going, he just can't see the.
I guess the opportunity cost isn't huge at running back
there. So this is my question and I'm
pretty like indifferent. This is my question to you.
Let's say this role that he's had in the preseason, which is
like super bullish, remains in the regular season.
Like theoretically James Cook with 70% of the touches, both
carries and targets out of this backfield for the Bills.
How valuable is that, right? Is it like I?
Mean You're taking him? Earlier than where he's going
now, if that's for sure. But the thing, so the thing
that's a little bit weird though, and I remember this from
doing stat chasing last year, is that you would see these weeks
where Devin Singletary would get 70% snap rate, like run a bunch
of routes and it was still worth like no fantasy point like the
Bills, just structurally just like don't.
Really do much with their running backs, even if they're
out there running routes, you know, maybe James Cook, I think
is a better pass catcher, you know, route runner than Devon
Singletary. So maybe things can change.
But you know, with the addition of Dalton Kincaid, with the
addition of Deontay Hardy, I think actually like the tight
ends and wide receivers are better now.
So like, are they really, is this the year they're gonna use
the running backs in the passing game?
Like we haven't seen it for two years.
So that's where I'm like, if James Cook, even if he's out
there a bunch, like I think we're overrating it slightly.
And I do think. Either Damian Harris or Latavius
Murray is going to be the goal line back.
When, to your point too, about Singletary, when he did finally
hit that ceiling for a stretch, they were just running the ball
super efficiently and like kind of grinding and like, I don't
know if he would get the carries that Singletary got in that
stretch. Like I don't think Cook is going
to win that over one of those two guys.
So to me it's like I I just think it could be a lot of empty
snaps. Like we've seen that with the
Bills running backs for two years in a row, so.
Like, I'm pretty skeptical he would.
No. It's a bit of a leap of faith
that they're gonna use the running back more in the passing
game. And I think it's not that far of
a leap because yeah, Singletary sucks as a receiver like he is
not even he's not even gonna be the Texans third down back it's
it's hilarious like they they're gonna have he was like a passing
down back for the Bills and they're gonna have like Dari,
Gumba, Wally or something play third down steps and Singletary
just like an early down back up there.
So the fact they didn't use him in the passing game just like
indicates they know what they're doing.
And they they tried to get Janie Mckissick right.
Remember, they tried to sign him and Washington signs him back.
They traded for Nihem Hines. They drafted James Cook in the
second round. They've signaled in a number of
different ways that they would like to have a back who can do
something for them in the receiving game.
And that could be part of, like them trying to punish these
defenses for, you know, sitting back and and playing too high on
them like they they are definitely one of those teams
that needs to come up with with solutions for that.
So I think Kincaid goes to that too.
So they get more power personnel.
So the the receiving side of it is easier for me to like, Yes, I
don't, I haven't seen it before, but like we have lots of
evidence. In addition, you know when you
look at James Cook and what his skill set is like, he looks like
an exciting receiver. So you know that part of it I
get, I do worry about how many touchdowns he could
realistically score. You know that's that's for
specifically for under ugh. That is what I'm worried about.
I think DraftKings full PPR, like you could tell me he has a
50 catch season or whatever or a 60 catch season.
Especially if the cover high the the the two high safeties
continues to be a problem. But like projecting A12
touchdown season for a Bills running back, I mean they would
really have to commit to this you know Josh doesn't get to run
around the goal line type stuff, which he might.
He might just be like, sorry dude, I'm calling my own number.
The other thing that concerns me?
Like, if you look at them historically with backs, they
haven't really been great and what they've done in terms of
drafting them and utilizing them, like they've spent a lot
of draft capital on running backs over the years and they
did want to bring him the Kissick and Heinz.
But the Bills are a team that will bring players in for like
really specific things like. So I don't know if that signals
that they want to throw to the running back a lot or they just
want to have that type of running back for like specific
situations, if that makes sense. I don't know if I'm like,
articulating that right, but like.
So like, like Heinz, they barely played after they traded for,
right. Like, and I could see a
situation where the base game plan is not to throw a ball to
James Cook. They just want to have that
option for like a few plays a game here and there.
Yeah, But I I mean, I I mean, it's it's ultimately like an
explosive player on a really good offense.
So, like, I get it, but I'm a little bit worried, yeah.
Yeah, I forget who made this call, but I think it was maybe
the Ringer Fantasy Football Show that I was listening to and.
They they compared like trying to get Josh Allen to use a pass
catching running back is like trying to get your dad to like
wear the shirt that you bought him And he just doesn't like
like you give your dad some gift and he's just like keeps wearing
like the same shitty, like you know polo.
He'll do it once many years. Yeah.
Yeah, as a very apt comp. Yeah, it's just.
I'm just skeptical. Yeah, I agree with Leonie.
Put it well. Like, good.
I think A talented player and a good offense.
I'm just like. Skeptical of how all the pieces
come together and Josh Allen like all of a sudden starts
using this pass catching running back.
But I I think it's OK. It's not completely unreasonable
Steam, I don't think. Well, do you think it continues?
Like, do you think he goes? Yeah, I think he used to.
Rise because you. Yeah, I do too.
Because when you look at the high stakes ADP, he's quite a
bit higher than this. Yeah.
And I I think that's an indication like of who I took
him. I took him in the sixth round of
a main event. I I don't think I can do that.
I don't think I'm there I. Don't think I'm there either.
And I was like 7. Turn, I mean, I was drafting, I
was drafting with some guys who get very nervous about our
running back to every year we're like starting like Phillip
Lindsay at running back to and these guys just get really
nervous. So they were like, let's just do
James Cook. Yeah, whatever.
I mean we have them I think in the eighth round of a main
event, which I'm obviously like very pleased with, but so I sure
I like. I liked him before.
I'm overweight, I have like 12% cook.
But he's like one of those players where like some some of
these guys we're gonna just like, have to say goodbye to,
right? We had a nice July together, but
like we're it's time to move on. It's a summer.
It was a summer fling. It was a summer fling.
I mean, I'm probably personally, I'm swinging on Javante Williams
before. Yeah, James.
Yeah. Yeah, and then I mean, I could,
I'm almost afraid to say, the other person I'd rather take
because you guys will just make fun of me.
But like, I'd rather take David Montgomery.
I knew James. I knew no.
David Montgomery is a good pick. Don't, don't let these.
Don't Michael. Do not let these guys.
I'm a little. Nervous.
I'm Montgomery. Just like, even Gretch likes him
this year. And I'm like, something's up.
It's because it's because it gives us a we are all at our
core, the people who were doing, you know, spreadsheets like by
hand and excel on all this work at Rotovis in 2014.
And one thing we know is that running backs who weigh 220
pounds get more work than running backs to weigh 195
pounds. And Jamir Gibbs weighs 195
pounds. David Montgomery weighs 225.
It's it's really that simple. Let.
Me. Take it much, Montgomery.
But he's he's not that gross like he he's he's not priced
high enough to where I can really be.
Like it's disgusting. Yeah, I feel like.
James Luck should be in between like that tier and then when you
get into like. I don't know, like Dalvin,
Rashad White, DeAndre Swift. Like I take cook ahead of those
things. Do not put Dalvin in this tier.
Do not capitulate. That's not in that tier.
Get out of here. He's not even in that tier by
ADP. He's in the 90s.
Yeah, Okay. Well, I mean, that's not far.
I mean, those guys are. We'll get to Dalvin.
We'll talk about Brees and the flowers.
We'll get to the Dalvin discussion.
Let's quickly talk Musgrave. This is Steam I'm buying.
Yeah, you can't get high. You can't get him high enough
for me. Yeah I tweeted this out.
So the route, sorry the the role looks really good from us Grave,
which I think you can kind of think of as the floor for a tie
down. He's run nearly all the routes,
played nearly all the snaps with Green Bay starters.
Even if you think that regresses a little bit once we get like
full games, like it still looks like a very good role.
And then he's earned 5 targets on 17 preseason routes.
Again, very small sample but like.
Like, I think we're seeing everything we want to see from
an exciting late round rookie tight down.
He's a freak athlete. Obviously his prospect profiles
like a Little Mix. He was injured.
But man, like, I I don't see why he goes like 30 picks after La
Porta. Like I would take La Porta over
him straight up, but I think that should be like a very close
grouping there. So I'm still buying Musgrave.
We only curious what you think on on Musgrave.
Yeah, I I'm still buying, but I think it's.
Like James Kirk is just gonna keep going up.
I don't know how it is. How long the opportunity is
gonna last? I mean, LaPorte is up to tight
end 14, I bet. I bet Musgrave can get to tight
end 15, but in like a week. Yes.
OK. Couple questions then for for
people Luke Musgrave or Gerald Everett Musgrave?
Pretend ADP doesn't exist. Just.
I don't know. I think I'd probably see Gerald
that right, but. I mean offense.
I mean the offense. The discrepancy in offenses is
enough for me at A at a the tight end position, Everett will
be. Everett will be way more
efficient, but Musgrave has like he's #5 in the pecking order in
Chargers targets. Probably Musgrave might be #2 in
in. Yeah, I guess I just like, I
don't. I don't know, maybe.
Maybe I'm too bearish on. Just like still, like, how many
targets are rookie tight ends going to get?
Even though like it looks really good.
Looks like he has a job. I just don't know if that
translates to just because there's if you got if if you got
Kyle Pitts's rookie season, which obviously I know is like
an insane wish casting. This is kind.
Of Season of a Titan ever? Yeah, that'd be correct, right?
So this is like this is like 90th.
This is like 90th percentile. 90th, 90th.
It wasn't the best. 90th percentile.
They usually keep drafting Muskrat, Bronx scored, Bronx
scored like 11 touchdowns. Yeah, Pitts could have one
touchdown this rookie year. It wasn't.
From a fantasy perspective, it wasn't.
I guess I was just thinking like the volume of the yards. 1000
Yards is a rookie. The yards, Yeah, yeah.
But not total points. I think it's not alright with
tight ends. It's always gonna be more about
the touchdowns anyways. I don't know.
So I like. Gerald Evers gonna score more
touchdowns. Here's here's my rookie tight
end rant. Like, quickly.
I I do think, like you talk about Muscave's target earning
Leoni. I agree with that.
Like. I'm a little bit skeptical of
rookie tight ends, but I think historically the problem with
rookie tight ends has not been like per route efficiency in
terms of earning targets. It's been that they're always
blocked. They're always blocked by like
an Austin Hooper type, like Chickakoko was last year at Greg
Dulcich was last year. Like those guys earned targets
at a really high rate last year. They're just barely on the field
because some veteran is blocking them.
So I'm actually like, I think I, you know, I'm a little bit
fading this narrative that rookie tight ends can't.
Do it. I really think it's that has to
do with some competent blocking veteran like blocking them from
seeing the field more than them not being able to catch some
passes. So that's my thought and why I'm
sort of more bullish. I also think.
We also take the. If you're gonna make this bet on
a guy and you're like, how many targets can really have, are
they gonna really even pass that much and all that?
It is nice that he's a downfield threat.
Like that's the role they're gonna have him in as a seam
stretcher. So it is.
He's not, I don't think gonna do what Kyle Pitts did but it's
somewhat similar. We're like they'll probably
split him out wide like they'll they'll like use him downfield a
fair amount. Got someone was telling me they
they were using him on an end around.
Yeah, he's gone. This is.
This is this is Liam because Liam Kyle.
And I wanted to take, we wanted to take Hunter Henry instead of
Luke Musgrave and our main event.
And Liam has like, not let us live it down.
That that is what it was. He was.
I was talking to Liam and he was like Hunter Henry's never run an
end around his goddamn life. Yeah, so yes, Luke Musgrave.
But the other thing I like about him, you know, if I didn't have
any correlation tiebreakers, I'd probably go Musgrave over
Everett. Just cuz like, I don't think
Romeo Dobbs is that good. Jaden Reed's kind of a whatever
prospect this is, the total bull case is that he could see 109
targets as the second pass catcher on the Packers.
Yeah, it's not just the tight end competition, which is broken
heavily in his favor. Like Tucker Craft now looks like
the tight end three behind the guara, right?
So. To guara Tyler Davis who played
Tyler Davis who played snaps from last year, tours ACL.
So that was actually sneaky, I think.
Kind of big for for Musgrave. I feel like a lot of times I got
heat. I get heat with projections of
like just giving guys volume, cuz it's there.
And I kind of feel like I'm on the opposite end of this
argument, where like. I have no dispute that like the
target opportunities there in Green Bay, but like I think
we're getting a little optimistic and well we're we're
up, we are absolutely getting optimistic because he has the
buzz. So that's what your brain wants
to project is like. Sure, if everything goes his
way, he could see 110 targets. He could also see he could play
all these snaps and see 60. In which case all of our
excitement was worth nothing. All right, Leon.
A couple. I'm trying to get see where
Leonie's out on this. Would you take him over?
Arab Smith? Yes.
That guy Dulcitch. I don't know that feels about.
Fair enough. I mean I think he'll get to that
range. I don't think he, I don't think
like he's, I would take ever over him, but I don't think it's
like absolutely. Yeah I do like I'm not trying to
be anti jailed effort. I think he's he's a pretty good
bet where he goes to last thing on Musgrave.
I was reading about Dan Brugler's prospect.
Profile on the Beast and Musgrave's background prior to
football was in ski racing and he talked about how some of his
moves kind of look like doing slalom on the ski course.
And when I read that I was all the way in after that.
So pretty insane background. How have we not gotten that
nugget till now? That's amazing.
Yeah, he was like really good. A total civic Northwest bro.
He was like a lacrosse player, a skier.
Like I'm I'm all in on this much great thing.
Let's let's do the briefs Dalvin thing.
I think everyone wants to hear about that.
Briefs is down 10 spots. Pretty big drop.
Just yeah. Curious.
Starting with you Leonie. Let's start on the briefs side
of this discussion. Then maybe we can get to delve
in. Pick 44.
That means Breece is kind of in the same range as running backs
like Joe Mixon, Naji Harris actually slightly after those
guys. And then with wide receivers
like Terry Mclaurin, Mike Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Drake
London, what is your stance on Breece in that range?
I think that's about fairly valued in that range but anytime
he slips further than that I'm pretty excited to get him and
the variants on him's been pretty high like on DraftKings
you can get him in around 5 a lot, which to me is just like
absolute auto pick. I think in general these running
backs that fall, I'm not as much on Ram Andre, but like Jacobs
when he was falling like just if you're drafting these basketball
tournaments, you can build these insane teams if you take these
running back risks and it's not like super high stakes that
like. I've just been trying to the
last week or two like build around guys like Breece and
those other running backs that are falling cuz people are
scared. Yep, Davis, we only knows the
secret, which is that our entries are gonna lose anyway.
So you might as well try and build things that can really
think for you when it goes right.
Like I mean I feel like this is a little bit under discussed in
in fantasy Twitter Breese literally at practice before
Dalvin Cook. Dalvin Cook has a shoulder
injury and is having his child was born and he has a legit
potential domestic violence suspension.
Now it's probably not going to convey based on what I've read
and had his worst, had his worst advance match.
So like, really, what it comes down to taking Alvin and and
letting Breese fall 10 spots in a DP right now it's literally
just we're getting Aaron Rodgers the power.
We're saying we're saying Aaron Rodgers just commands it to be
so and therefore it will be so. But I mean, I don't know, like
Rodgers is not dumb. He's going to see these guys in.
OK, well yeah, he is. I mean, this is the same guy who
completed a, this is the same guy who completed 101 yards to
Jeff Janis on one drive and then ran him out because he, like,
brought him the wrong type of coffee one day or something.
So maybe he is. Maybe he is.
Yeah, but Rogers is also like 40 years old and he's trying to win
a Super Bowl. And you know, maybe he's dumb,
but I don't think he's like stone cold moron like where he
can't see what's in front of him like for 8-9 weeks at a time.
Like eventually if Breese is back to 100%, he's going to run
circles around Dalvin. I will say like I have been
surprised. That ETN is still so cheap.
Like I so hard agree. I I've been you know, as I've
been looking at what how I play this as someone who is very high
on briefs before the Dalvin Cook signing and I have a ton of
them. I would love to be taking briefs
still cuz now I get this discount and I don't mind having
a really big position on this Uber talented young running back
in the middle rounds. But.
I'm like, you know, it's kind of nice that I can actually sit
here in the middle of the 4th and take ETN and if I'm going to
try to play for for fifth round breeze ever, like that's the way
I can do it. I've been like legitimately
shocked that ETN, who has no issues with injury, is going to
be healthy for the very beginning of the season.
You don't have to worry about, oh, is he going to be a low
advance rate player? Like if he hits he's he's going
to be a high advance rate player.
I don't really understand why he's available.
Is it just the is it just the Bigsby stuff?
I mean, is that? Is it really?
So yeah, is it just that? Yeah, but like to me like mixing
you know Harris, those guys over briefs like to me it's get out
of here. I have no interest in that.
But ETN, I think as much as I like briefs, I mean it's hard at
this point to say ETN should go behind briefs all.
I've had that same thought with. I really get that.
Yeah. I've had the same thought with
ETN and RAM. Andre, I'm like.
I guess like from Andre, the pass catching up side, you can
sell me on that being a lot higher.
I guess same with Breese, right? Like those guys have higher pass
catching ceilings in ETN. But man, I'm just kind of like
leaning into the safety a little bit and I'm etn over both those
guys right now. Heavy ETN over both those guys
too. Yeah, like, I just think the
upside with ETN is hot. Like, I don't know the Tank
Bigsby stuff. I'm like sure he's gonna play a
little bit, but. Again, I did this rant last week
so I don't wanna do it again but every running back has a backup
that's gonna play a little bit like we don't need to freak out
about Tank Bixby. Also that that one goal, that
one short yardage carry. People forget in that game that
they had like a first and goal from the three and ETM was on
the field, he didn't get the carry but he was on the field in
that situation. Bixby got like a third and one
like on the 40 yard line or something and people are saying
oh short yardage roll, it's Bixby's, it's over.
It's like, I don't know about that so.
Yeah. Leone what what are your
thoughts in that debate of those those 3 backs like Ramondre?
No, I I'd have ETN first probably.
I mean I think the pass catching is a little bit of a concern
that they just might not throw to running backs and they also
want to use Hasty a little bit. But ultimately, you know, it's
just a really explosive player that I think sometimes when guys
don't hit their ceilings in a year, we get like more
disappointed than we should. Like I don't think our.
You know like the main take away from a lot of people from his
first years. Oh he didn't catch catch passes
and we thought it would but like the offense is gonna be really
good. He's an explosive player.
He's a young player. I I don't think you really have
to overthink it too much. Like guys are gonna miss.
So like is there some risk? Yeah.
But I I probably take him ahead of breeze and I'm I'm kind of
bearish on Ramondre. So definitely over reminded.
We talked about that because I've been weirdly bearish on
Ramondre, but in a way where I'm mad at everyone about it.
Because I don't want to be bearish on Andre and I thought I
wouldn't be like, I have them at the I'm at 37 in my ranks, but
that's below ADP and it's like, what?
What are we doing? They did sign someone who's
going to potentially take goal line work like that has to
factor in some, right? Yeah.
I mean the new prices like decent like we were just kind of
factoring from the beginning that they were going to sign
someone. Shout out Pat Thorman.
He was like really on top of that.
So we had we've had Ramadre basically where he's been
drafted now all offseason except for very early.
But I'm concerned with a couple of things.
One, I think he has some dead zone characteristics.
Like people don't want to say that because he's a young back
that they like. But the team that has a tough
schedule, that could be a really shitty offense like, which is
bad. And it's a player that, even
though he should pass, caught a ton last year.
Wasn't super efficient. I saw the the Jacob tweet and
like I'm not trying to hold it against him because it's good
that he got those targets. But yeah, then you bring in Zeke
who like he can take goal line touches and pass block.
Those are high value touches. So not not if you're going to
lose some high value touches and you're going to play on an
offense that's not good. It could go bad.
It could that like I don't know. I just I I have much stronger
preferences for. Other player like I'd rather
take Jamir Gibbs for sure, I think.
Yeah, Stevenson has also never been hyper efficient.
Like he's been good. I like Stevenson.
He's a good player. It's not what he's volume
dependent. I mean he's volume dependent.
Yeah, like most running backs, most running backs are volume
dependent. But he's, I don't think he like
there's certain guys who I think kind of rise above that where
I'm like like Jonathan Taylor, right.
Like, yeah, obviously you have issues there with with a high
place, but like. I'm willing to like overlook
some of the volume red flags with Jonathan Taylor, cuz it's
like it's Jonathan Taylor. I don't feel that way about
Ramondre Stevenson. I think that's very fair, yeah.
I'm with Pat and like Breece and Etienne, you do feel a.
Little bit that way, right? Yeah.
Those guys are crazy explosive.
I feel that way. Yeah.
Yeah, I probably, yeah, I definitely have ETN over
Ramondre, I think with Breece. It would be close.
And just the fact that Breese is like falling in some drafts, I'd
probably still go from Andre. I don't know, Again, like I have
plenty of Breese. I think like Dalvin signing was
the worst case scenario. I know people are saying, oh, it
doesn't impact Breese's ceiling that Dalvin signed there.
I sort of see where people are going with that argument.
But like I think it inherently impacts the ceiling that Dalvin
signed there just because. There's plenty of times in NFL
history where the worst backup running back just sees the field
a lot because the coaches want them to, the quarterback wants
them to like Thomas Jones for Jamal Charles in Kansas City.
Yeah, you know, Zeke first, Pollard last year.
Like, I don't think we can say Breese doesn't impact like Cook
sealing. Even if Cook like is not good
and Breese is way better, he could be on the field a bunch
and that impacts Breese's ceiling.
Yeah, it's like one of these things where I don't like.
There's two things. It's.
What is his ceiling outcome and is that now fundamentally
changed by the signing Devin Cook To that I say no, I don't
think it's fundamentally changed.
I think he can still get to a similar ceiling outcome.
How likely is that outcome to occur?
Yes, yes. I think he's now lower.
Yeah, that's that's what I'm saying.
That's what I'm saying, yeah. That's yeah, I I I think we all
fully agree. And I mean, I don't think
Dalvin's the worst pick at its current ADP right now.
Like, I think he's OK right there.
Yeah. I'm definitely not taking Dalvin
now. No interest.
He did still have some pretty explosive runs last year.
I mean, I guess I'm most concerned that they shoulder
still an issue because and I I saw some research and stuff on
him that like. One of his biggest issues last
year was like with contact because the shoulder injury,
like the explosive speed was still there so.
His success rate was horrendous and in a couple of True Media
and NFL Next Gen. both had him. All the Twitter doctors when he
had the surgery the first time said this is going to be an
issue for the rest of his career.
This isn't really something that ever goes away for a dude who
gets tackled for a living. So that's fair.
I think if you think that and and I think it's a reasonable
take then. You don't want him, but I think
if you're just like, oh, he's dust, like I'm not drafting him
that that that's kind of the wrong opinion.
Yeah, I he's a he's a little mispriced for me.
If I if I knew he had this role and he would have retained like
if it was like Hammer Khalil Herbert, I don't know maybe I
would have take. I don't.
I probably still wouldn't have. Just because I'm stubborn,
honestly. I still want Herbert, man.
I want Herbert over Dalvin Cook. Herbert could be good like he's
the he could just. If Herbert is good he could be
the Bear. Starting running back all year
like it's, that's pretty simple. He's good.
He's a starting run. If Dalvin's good, then first of
all, I think it's a higher chance that Herbert's good than
Dalvin. But even if Cook is good, he's
still going to have to deal with Breese Hall, who's going to be
100% by roughly Week 5, and by the end of the year he will be
100%. Coming back from the clean ACL
tier like that, he's been on track.
He's practicing now like he's on track for that.
That's a problem. That's a problem for Dalvin
Cook's late season upside so. I don't know.
He can. He serves a purpose like he
definitely. He's kind of like an expensive
version of Jamal Williams. Samaji P Ryan, I think he, you
know, and you could say he's better picked than those guys,
cuz he'll probably have a longer stretch of usefulness.
But to me he's like in that archetype where if I really need
the running back help early, he's like a worse version to
Dave Montgomery kind of thing. I'm like, all right, yeah, I'm
gonna, I think that's fair. But I think, like the high value
touches for The Jets are going to be better than for the Bears
at the running back position overall.
So it's not like a one to one. That's we have to worry about
that contact stuff, right? Like if he's if he sucks at
contact. Yeah, if you think the shoulder
injury like that's it, you're out.
You know what I mean. But I'm just saying like if if
you're like more unsure on that and think it's possible, if
shoulder's not an injury, the high value touches for The Jets
are going to be better, both receptions and.
Yeah, I mean, Rogers has made. How many dudes has Rogers made?
Like Total Fantasy Football studs.
He's so good at that. The other thing too is, I mean,
contingent value does work both ways.
Like, we always look at it from the lens of the player we like
more. But like Breece is coming back
from an ACL injury or he could just randomly get hurt having
nothing to do with that. And Dalvin Cook is like like
that. He could suck and be amazing in
in that. Case yeah, yeah, yeah.
And I think we can feel really good that.
Dalvin completely ices the likes of Carter and Son of the Night.
Like The Jets are not high on these guys at all Like and yeah
and yeah, the the last thing we'll say on Dalvin and then we
can move on like we were drafting AJ Dillon in like the
6th last year on basically the same thesis.
Like he had a way more talented running back ahead of him in
Aaron Jones. That wasn't really the thesis.
OK is. Dylan's talent.
Yeah, but is AJ Dillon good? Yes.
If you asked someone drafting him in 2022, they would have
been like, yeah, dude. Yeah, they would be like, you
see those quads, brother. I'm on Team Dalvin Cook is
better than AJ Dillon, but whatever, Even if I'm not, even
if you completely disagree with that, it's like kind of the AJ
Dillon bet, but three rounds later, right?
Like, that seems fine. I think it's fine.
Where, again, if you think this shoulder is a permanent problem,
you're out. But if you don't think the
shoulder is a permanent problem, like, it's hard for me to see
where he's not, like, a pretty reasonable pick.
Yeah. You know, he was still like, you
know, just outside the top 10 fantasy points for game last
year. Like, he's not dead, you know?
I mean, he's not terrible. He's not.
I still probably won't take him because I'm stubborn, but like
you have outlined, a very reasonable and rational argument
for why he still can be a good pick where he's going.
Yeah. Yeah, and I think he can serve a
purpose for your team. Like if you were like thinking
about drafting James Conner because you need early running
back points, like maybe take someone else and go get Cook in
the next round or whatever. Like, I think you know, he can,
he can serve a purpose. I have him on one mastiff and I
think I'm good, but you know. I got, yeah.
I've got him in some high stakes like.
Crazy to low, like one 20s, One 10s.
Yes, I got him and I'm just like, yeah, that seems great.
Let's go to Miles Sanders. Here he is falling off the
growing issue, even this new ADP71.
I think that understates where he's like, actually going in
drafts now. Maybe it's a small sample from
what I'm doing, but I'm seeing him.
In the late. 80s, like late 70s, Like every draft I'm in now.
Man I was not. And Pat we had this argument in
our in our chat yesterday. I was I think both of us were
out on Sanders. You were even more out on him
than I was. But man like pick eighty.
I think the math starts to look pretty like irrefutable on
Sanders being a good pick there. I guess we'll start with you
Leone. I know you guys like just
projections wise and your rankings would be quite high on
Sanders at pick 71. Are you actually drafting him or
you are you following the ETR ranks there or how you how you
dealing with this? I'm probably drafting him a
little bit later, but I'm definitely not out on him.
Like you guys know me, I'm a I'm a value drafter in general, and
I think he's not like that. You know, I think he's in that
David Montgomery range right now.
He just got a low key. He just got a low key boost too,
because Shuba Hubbard has played every running back snap with
Bryce Young in the preseason and.
Shuva Hubbard's ankle got rolled over on and I was doing a little
bit of digging because Hubbard is one of my biggest positions.
I've just been hoovering him up. So he had an ankle injury in
2020 that caused him to miss a bunch of time and he also
suffered an ankle injury to the same ankle last year.
There hasn't been an update yet. I'm going to guess we'll get one
probably this afternoon from Panthers training camp, but.
If it would like I thought it was projecting like Sanders was
going to be in a split with Hubbard based on the stuff that
I was reading from Panthers training camp.
And if Hubbard is going to be dinged up, not ready for Week 1
or or you know comes back too early and he's just suffering
from this ankle thing. Like it's.
I think they've really broadcasted Blackshear Sanders
or a Blackshear Spencer Brown. None of these guys are not a
part of their plans at all. So if Hubbard's ankle is a
problem? What would have maybe been a
6040 with Hubbard and losing a lot of the long down and
distance stuff is actually going to go Sanders his way.
Now you can tell I've really been thinking about this a lot,
because I went back and looked more at Miles Sanders stuff as a
result. Such an interesting profile.
The Eagles clearly drafted him with the idea that he was going
to be a good, long downed distance guy.
Saw 65 targets as a rookie. He was so bad.
He was so inefficient and got more inefficient.
He was inefficient. You're one.
He was not. You're one.
He was good. You're.
One, he was good as a receiver. Actually, if you guys go to
Chris Towers his profile, he tweets about this like once a
year because it's so startling. There's this play where Sanders
messes up his route. Gets the target anyways and
drops it. And then basically ever since
this play the Eagles stopped throwing in the ball to the
point that I think, I think it was 25 targets for 78 yards was
his line as a receiver last year.
So I don't think the Panthers signed him to be this long down
a distance guy. I.
I still like playing it the Hubbard route, especially
because normally when you see the starting running back fall,
you'll see a corresponding jump in the handcuffs ADP, but there
is not been a corresponding jump for Hubbard.
I I don't really know why that is, but I still prefer to play.
It. That way, Yeah.
I I yeah, I just mentioned that he's got this ankle injury now.
We'll see what happens with this ankle.
If it ends up being nothing. I still like it playing that
way. If not, I will be.
Bag defending. So I saw, I saw Frank Reich give
a press conference little quote on this thing and he was like,
they were like, what's the deal basically?
And he was like, listen, like these guys are going to be fine.
And like we talked to the talk to the medical staff about their
path to being able to play week one.
And you know, even if they're not fine, we'll be fine.
What the fuck does that mean, man?
That is the literal fucking king of press conferences.
I mean, every week this guy has something from the he's so good
at it, yeah. Well, you know what it makes me
worry about is could they be a team that signs Cream Hunt,
right? Or or something like.
That because they. Literally might not have a
starting running back. They don't like Spencer Brown or
Blackshear at all. These guys have been like total
mop up duty second-half of the second preseason game.
Like they do not care about these two guys at all.
Yeah. So I would have a hovered ankle
update that would make me feel a lot better.
The Sanders thing for me, like where he's slipping now, like we
haven't projected I think for like 37 targets on the year, but
like, I think he could catch 50 balls, you know?
He could. And that's like we're not
projecting anywhere near that. And we still kind of have them
as OK and like we've cratered his ceiling odds we've cratered
his ceiling efficiently like we've done all these things And
I guess it just comes back to a base assumption as if you think
he's the starting running back when healthy or not.
Like if you think he's kind of the the started you think if
it's like a 2 to one ratio with him versus Hubbard then like
he's a pretty good pick at where he's falling now especially when
he falls after the new ADP. I think there's a little bit
more upside than people think where it just you know he it's
it's hard to parse like you said Davis.
The Philly stuff, like they did not throw running backs much and
in base last year, right? But.
Like, but they were, the more is probably gonna throw to running
back in. The more damning thing was that
they specifically just drafted Kenneth Gainwell to like remove
that work and entirely I guess, but the, as we saw with Ramondra
last year, just getting a bunch of bullshit and base.
Yeah, totally. Yes, it does.
It does. We we saw, you know, with Joe
Mixon to an extent last year too, you know, obviously much
better offense. So it's like not a one to one,
but like he was able to get a 10% target share just in base,
you know, because of checkdowns and stuff.
And I think that outcome for Sanders has been a little bit
under appreciated. The issue for me with Sanders as
he goes down into this range is that like.
OK you're you're making kind of a status quo bet with Sanders.
Like this is the guy they brought in.
This is the guy that kind of dubbed the starter and you're
you're sort of being like you know he's he's going to get the
first crack for as long as he's you know not terrible but he
enters the season injured. We don't have like a ton of
confidence that he's playing week one which that alone.
I mean, if he's missing time early in the season, potentially
that needs to be factored into the ADP, but then like.
I don't really feel confident that he is better than Hubbard.
Like I think they're pretty similar as far as their talent
goes based on what Hubbard did. Hubbard was very efficient last
year like he was he, he. Runs.
The format was very similar. Amazing college player Hubbard
was. Yeah, like we're counting that.
Yeah, and Sanders was a backup in college, Yeah.
I got some got some breaking, breaking news.
Sanders is in practicing pads today.
Wow. Breaking news, All right, was
it? Hubbard had twice the amount of
carries his rookie year as he did last year and was at 3.6
yards per carry. So like.
I don't think Hubbard is too recency biased on like oh, he's
a. I do not think Hubbard is like,
a really good NFL player either. Like he was getting Alex Sanders
very. I mean, yeah.
I I would say like, I think. I'm just gonna get one of the
league out there. Like, I mean, I don't know who
the fuck's battered between the two of them.
I don't really care. I don't know that if I had.
I care if Sanders isn't. I mean, the the practicing in
pads thing kind of blows up my argument.
But if Sanders doesn't get the first crack of the job, then it
definitely matters who's better. Yeah, sure he is.
He is going to get the first crack on the gym where like
basically what I'm saying is like if the base assumption is
he's the starter, it's hard for him to be a bad pick.
If you think that assumption's wrong, we're on a different
plane, and like, I can see where you would like him.
But like, if you're under that base assumption, there's not
really much evidence to support that, like.
I am once again under that base assumption now that he's
practicing, but like if he was potentially missing week one,
then like he by definition would not get the first crack at the
jump. So yeah, that, that, that's
fair. I think with him practicing now
is actually like pretty huge, Huge.
I do this like I think this is your buying window like him.
Him practicing with Hubbard banged up is a nice.
Window for sure. Yeah.
I was just saying that's the other things.
Like Hubbard's hurt too. It's not like just Sanders
that's banged up. Yeah, yeah.
And we haven't said it. We haven't said his name yet,
but Levis Kushnal, running back, one season.
Let's move on. Let's move on.
I wanted to call it a couple players that aren't on risers or
fallers, but I think had some pretty interesting preseason
usage stuff to discuss. The first one is Giovante
Williams. We've mentioned him a couple of
times, I think just awesome news.
Like I know he was in a timeshare with P Ryan, I don't
care about that right now. Just awesome news that he could
play in a preseason game off this multi ligament ACL tear.
Like that's awesome to me. I think this price is pretty
fair now. I know he's risen quite a bit
from he was going in the hundreds in May, maybe 110 ish.
I'm fine with this pic. I don't think it's like a smash.
I still somewhat concerned about the injury, but it seems about
right to me. Yeah.
And anybody have thoughts on Jamalte's ADP at?
75 I kind of think he's a guy you buy almost all the way up
because a lot of these things like one.
I think the cool thing about Chavante is that he's kind of
always earned early down target. So even if he is in this sort of
timeshare with. P Ryan where P Ryan's handling
the long down and distance, I still think Javonte will earn a
good bit of actually, weirdly enough, in a very similar way to
Alvin Kamara with the Saints and Drew Brees and Sean Payton where
Kamara would actually get replaced on long down and
distance by like just a panoply of of dusty running backs
through New Orleans Saints. I mean he was losing third downs
to Mark Ingram, all these different guys, and it never
really mattered because he earned targets on early downs.
But also if we're just looking. In the pocket of drafts where
he's going, I think there are so few guys you can tell yourself a
story about like, oh, this is the guy you need, right?
Like, so we're looking at. I like these guys.
I like James Cook and I like David Montgomery.
But I think Javante's odds, and especially compared to Miles
Sanders and Cam Acres, I think his upside is way better.
Like way, way. I mean, he could.
I think there are seasons where javante catches like 70 passes.
And I don't think that about really anyone else who goes
around him. Yeah, I like Ciovante a good
bit. We were way behind on him early.
We thought the injury risk was understated and it's gone the
exact opposite way where he's come back even earlier than
expected, which I'm surprised by.
But given that information, yeah, I think he's a pretty
strong pick at where he is. I'm probably not quite as
bullish as Davis because I still think like you've got a coaching
staff change, you've got an offense that we're still a
little bit unsure about and and the injury risk, I want to say
is gone. It's like really positive news.
But like we had positive news on guys last year and then they
just couldn't quite do it and they had setbacks and stuff.
But yeah. Godwin.
Godwin is the guy I'm thinking of who came back from the ACL
and immediately injured his hamstring.
I mean, Dobbins too have. Dobbins too.
Yeah, that's, you know, which was his injury was most
compared. To Jovantes and I think that's
the because it is still that multi ligament tear that more
serious knee injury that the the interview that Levitan did was
Stefania Bell I thought was really interesting or like there
is just like a it's your knee like it's not like you can just
be awesome and like power through like your knee recovery
like you at some point are going to.
Brought up against like just the structural issues with with the
knee itself if you're putting too much on it.
So like I kind of hope that they do use P Rhino but I'm actually
still drafting P Rhine because my hope is that they bring back
Javante somewhat slowly and then he crushes down the stretch.
But I still get I can use P run early in the season.
So I'm drafting P Ryan but also to the your down the cook point
I mean I think P Ryan still has contingent value in that way.
So I I'm going to be a little bit more.
I'll probably be like at ADP or a little bit behind on Jovante
the rest of the way. He's not someone I wanna be like
leading the charge on. Yeah and the this one like
strategy tip on Jovante. And I know it always isn't this
clean in your drafts, but I would recommend trying to get
exposure in the snapshot tournaments rather than BBM
because. Again, I don't think it's like
egregious to take him in BBM. He's only risen like 3 rounds,
but you are competing with a ton of teams that have gotten him at
pick 100. So if you can make that
distinction in your drafts, I would recommend being a little
bit selective in in where you're taking Jimantu Williams.
Let's talk to your Chig econ quo.
This one I think is like going a little bit under the radar cuz
he's actually fallen in ADP, which is wild to me.
He has a little background like CHIGGS ADP.
He was kind of in the 121 thirtyish range for a lot of the
off season. He's just kind of like slowly
drifted down. I think you know obviously the
the DeAndre Hopkins signing had something to do with that.
I think people pointing out that he played sort of a limited bit
role last year has something to do with that.
But man his his usage in. The preseason so far has been
really good. He's playing at 11 personnel
that's like absolutely critical for for tight ends and both in
terms of floor and ceiling to play in 11 personnel.
He's out there doing that. So I I I guess like you can say
he was maybe overpriced before we knew that and like I don't
know you can make the argument multiple ways.
I'd really like jig at at 153 I I would be chasing him up a
couple rounds just based off what he did last year.
Curious Leone. How how does the math shake out
here with with the Titans tight end?
Even if you sort of bump out his role, do you think he has enough
upside at this cost? Yeah, I feel like you described
it well, like we were maybe a little too aggressive before we
knew he'd be playing more. But now that we've seen at least
the potential that he's playing in 11 personnel, that's really
strong sign. And I mean you guys talked about
with Musgrave like available targets.
You know with Oconque we have more I guess proof that he's
good at the NFL level and we have all the available targets
too like even if they have Hopkins and a healthy trail in
bergs, like there's just nothing else.
So I like a conquer quite a bit And I'd also like at the new the
tag he's at right now too is like it doesn't preclude like a
late round tight end strategy. Like, it's not like he's going
where you have to take two tight ends, like you can take three
tight ends with. Yeah, you can take really
easily. You can take Jake Musgrave and
then Jake Ferguson and you're. Like, yeah, you're feeling.
So that's that's beautiful. Pat, you're on.
I'm. I can take three tight ends and
he doesn't even have to be the the first one.
He could be. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah, I've come around and Chig pretty significantly.
I'm I'm pretty high ahead of ADP now on him.
I was just shocked when I did my write up on the tight ends that
how much he had played on play action.
Which I I kind of thought he was going to be this like rotational
receiver type but cuz he's he's like short right He's he's like
kind of more of like the move tight ends in my mind.
But he's like, I think he can play the traditional tight end
in 11 and stuff. And to your point about them not
having anyone, Leoni, like, I think they know that, like I
think they're well aware they don't have anyone else.
Kyle Phillips got hurt in their preseason game, too.
Yeah. Yeah.
So I mean that that kind of directly impacts Jake, cuz they
probably be. Earning targets in the same part
of the field, but they're gonna run plays for him too, like they
did at the end of last year. Like even if he does, like they
manufacture stuff for him. Yeah, 100%, yeah.
Yeah, and they don't throw to the running back that much.
Like when they Derek Henry got what?
Like. 35 catches last year or something.
We were like, hell yeah, it's like.
Hey, we don't need, we don't need to slander Derek Henry on
this program. No, I'm just saying like.
Do you know? Do you know who he plays in week
17? Brother Dude, that was not
slander. That was like an objective
truth. We were at pumped.
He got 35 catches. Yeah, there's there's there's
not competition. It's not like Mccaffrey's here
soaking up targets out of the backfield or something.
So. Yeah.
Last thing I'll say, I'm Chig and I think I kind of want to be
more on this. Last year is like tracking where
like the gross blocking tight ends are moving around the
league. Jeff Swain, like no one wants to
talk about Jeff Swain on a fantasy show or Austin Hooper.
But both those guys leading is like absolutely massive for.
Chig So Bullish? Because they were replaced with
like absolute nobodies, like Josh Weil was like a fifth round
pick, the Titans took Trayvon. Wesco is basically like a
fullback. I think he played on the Bears
last year. He's he's in there, Jet.
Yeah, like these guys, even though like Swain and Hooper are
bad and no one wants to talk about them, they're so much
better than these other guys that are placing them with that.
It's just huge for Chig's role to have those backup tight ends
like switching out. So I was kind of late on like
paying attention to this, but I think the.
The bear case for Chig wasn't thinking about, like, who the
hell are they gonna play over him if he's not playing 11
personnel? Like there's nobody who's like a
proven NFL blocker. Well, you know I would, I would
give you 1 cautionary tale on that because Andrew Beck was
playing over Albert O last year. Eric, Eric.
Eric, Robert. Eric Tomlinson.
Like I I would Albert. O They were making up Eric's I
would be making. Up They're making up guys who
wanted hair. Dulcitch.
There was like a bunch of dudes with long hair that weren't
dulcitch around there. I live with this, yes, and Beck,
Beck and Saubert had long hair, I think.
But I just, I've lived the wanting to make the young tight
end happen thing and then being like look at all these jabronis
on the depth chart and then cut to week one and the jabronis are
are playing 50% of the snaps. The the irony is after week one,
it was like wheels up for Albert.
Oh, he had, he had five targets and we were like, oh, it's, it's
over. Like Alberto, Albert Osison is
here, yeah? Yeah, all right.
Anyways, I still think I'm in on Jake at Jason up a couple
rounds. Let's move on to Michael Wilson.
He is up justifiably. I think he's just kind of a
clear starter. And usually when rookies are
clear starters in the beginning of the year, they don't.
Lose that role. Maybe we can think of some
examples of guys that were bad enough that they lost the role,
but it's kind of hard for a rebuilding team.
It's kind of hard to imagine them going away from Michael
Wilson once he has that role. Anyways, I would take, I think,
Michael Wilson. I don't love his talent, don't
love his prospect profile, but. He's running routes, he's in the
18th round. Is there anything else to say on
my I've had to. I've had to consciously.
I've tried to. People have tried to tell me
things about Michael Wilson's college career and like his
production. And I've had to just be like, I
don't wanna know, do not tell me because the situation that he's
in right now is like I think one it's bullish because he is just
clearly ahead of of Ron Daley and and Greg Dortch.
Like he just clearly is a starting he's played every snap
with the starting offense in in their two preseason games and
he's got that. And you can tell yourself this
with every Cardinals player, but he's got the upside that Kyler
comes back and Week 8 and their offense like resembles something
like You might just have gotten a massive discount on a guy who
could see 50 targets from Kyler, Murray or something in the back
half of of the season. Yeah, I don't think about.
I don't know much about Wilson's profile or anything, but I kind
of just blindly think that any rookie wide receiver who's
earned his way into starting you should be taking in Route 18.
And he was. 16 maybe? Like, yeah, I take him in around
16. I don't have nearly enough.
I should have more. I think like a lot of the ETR
guys aren't on them, but I think just maybe that's like 2 micro
thinking and it's just like a macro like.
You gotta remove your prospect biases when like literally like
look at pick 200 like how many guys project for more routes and
Michael Wilson it's like maybe Mac Hollins you could tell me
projects more routes like maybe Robert Woods projects more
routes but besides that like I don't care.
He could suck and. Whatever.
Pick two. Like I I just all right.
I don't get the micro analysis of his profile.
Pick two. Well, we also don't the micro
analysis of his profile I think is like it's not it's not that
bad of a profile. Like it's not like there's no
reasons to think. It reminds me of weirdly almost
of like, Demian Pierce. Like Demian Pierce was he He
flashed a little bit. That's such a good point,
actually, yeah. Right.
He didn't get used a ton. He didn't do enough to where we
were, like, you know. We should be really excited
about this guy, but the team spends a little bit of draft
capital on him and signals the entire offseason that they're
going to be utilizing him right away.
And also the team's terrible and should be utilizing their
rookies right away to see what they have.
So as he moves up, I don't think we should be like shouting like
he never broke out. He's a fifth year player like
they're planning on playing him and he's athletic and he's going
to run a ton of routes, so I don't know.
The other thing is I would note that.
You know he only played six games.
In 20/22 he had 30% dominated rating, though he had a 26%
dominated rating is a is a sophomore, 29% only.
In four games as a junior he was a fifth year player.
He's definitely like not a good prospect, but he's a third round
pick who flashed a little bit. He's athletic and is now a
starting wide receiver and has dominated the summer as far as
like team reports go. Why would you not?
Take a chance on that. He was like, actually very
similar to Rashi Rice. He was like one of these guys
who got drafted because he fit. Mingo actually is like a good
comp of like, not that good of a prospect, but got overdrafted
because every wide receiver in this class weighed 170 pounds.
Like it was a situation where like the Cardinals are like we
very specifically want a guy who can do this one thing and they
got this guy in the building who can do the one thing.
He shows up the training camp, the thing they think he can do,
he can do starting job. I mean this is it's really as
simple. And now I like I was so very
famously. I was a Doors pro and I had very
little and I am up to 15% Michael Wilson, like I just am
hammering him. I'm at 10 1/2 percent on
Underdog and I feel, I feel like I'm missed the boat.
If anything, I'm at 16% on DraftKings, which is nice.
So this is Sam. You actually pointed this out on
Twitter a couple weeks ago. The DraftKings algorithm is like
pretty clearly broken when it gets to the later round.
Stuff like it doesn't filter it. So round 20, you can take
Michael Wilson, you can take Josh Downs, you can take two to
Atwell because these got, for whatever reason, maybe they're
not picked in every draft. I don't.
Know what? No ADP.
Kyron Kyron has no ADP. Rico Dowell, who we're about to
talk to talk about has no ADP like there are there Deontay
Hardy has no ADP like there are, you know.
What I think it is, I bet in the $10 drafts no one is bothering
to They don't go. They don't.
Go so, so the. It's like the volume of drafts
is most of the $10.00, so it keeps those Adp's super low.
It could be. To me, it honestly looks like
something's broken, cuz sometimes like and it changes
each week. But sometimes, like this guy, I
forget his name. He was some guy who's literally
Charleston Rambo. Charleston Rambo had an ADP like
quite high in in the rankings above like tons of guys who were
like legit player. He's a guy from the USFL that
was on IR and he had like an ADP.
Like, I honestly think there's there's something wrong with
algo, but anyways, we don't need to go with that.
I do think we're gonna stay and talk through some of these dusty
RB 2 situations. Leoni does have to run out
before we do that, so we'll say bye to Leoni.
Before you go, give us your favorite closing line value pick
that's on the board right now. Right now we.
Can give you a second to think about it.
Hey, yeah. Yeah.
Give me a second here. OK.
Yeah, that's a good question. I can give mine.
So I am going to say that it's going to be Jeff Wilson with
this Devon a chain shoulder injury and Gaskin and Achmed
playing with the first team offense.
I think that's so clear to me. The way I read that Gaskin and
Achmed playing is not that the coaching staff likes them, it's
that they know exactly what they have in Jeff Wilson Junior and
most has just stayed in the role that he's going to play.
But Jeff Wilson, junior is going to be, it's going to be a week
from now and he's going to be, he's going to be a 12 round
pick, right? I mean, that's just the way this
goes with the chain because McDaniel said a chain is week to
week with the shoulder injury, which for a guy who was playing
special teams in the second quarter of his second preseason
game like it, it seems that their plans were not to use a
chain immediately. Yeah.
That's a good pick. That is a good pick.
I'm. That's really good pick.
I don't know. I'm struggling here to find like
one guy. I think it's like classical moni
can't make his hands. Feel free to.
Give I mean, Johnston has got has a chance to like rise up a
decent bit. I like that.
I just don't know. I think it's kind of capped, so
it's not really the best pick for this exercise.
But I think the close line value on him could be pretty solid,
especially in these managed leagues.
Maybe not as much underdog. Yeah, I could see that.
If he if he's like clearly had a Palmer in some preseason game,
I'd definitely see him rock like he's, I think he's slate sliding
a little bit recently, but I like that one.
Knew it was the only thanks for joining us.
Kincaid's gonna keep Verizon too.
Yeah, you're right. Liam's gonna make you guys.
William's gonna get there. I know, I know, I think.
Liam's gonna get there, I think. I capitulated, I capitulated.
And I take that in Kincaid. This all I just want for the
record, I yelled at Liam because he took Kincaid and Knox on the
same team. OK my my point all along is
they're not gonna pay all together.
I've. I've I've.
I. Actually think that's fine
because I think they're both can be on the field.
I don't think that a time. That's the part I don't really
buy. I think.
I think Kincaid's got to eat Knox and then he can pay off in
a big way, but I don't think that.
That's like 3. It wasn't.
All right, fine. Got you.
Time to pick. The lawyer Time to pick a pitch.
All right, we did wanna talk through.
I know we're running a little bit late here.
I do wanna talk through these Rbts.
I talked about early in the off season keeping track.
Should we? Just give our rising picks now
so we don't forget. Yeah.
Let's do that and then we'll talk to RBTS.
Pat, you have one. I'm gonna say Rashad Bateman,
who's back on the field practicing now and everyone's.
Everyone's written his obituary. It's Odo Beckham, guys.
Odo Beckham's the starter. Zay Flowers is the best rookie
pick. You know you gotta take him in
the third round. Didn't you hear Jack Settleman
on on the Soul cast last week saying that Odell is the guy you
need? That's what I'm saying.
All the slappies are out there talking to Odell.
That's exactly my point. Thank you for for reinforcing my
point. All the slappies are Odell.
You gotta take Odell. But you know Bateman's now back
out there. He had the cortisone shot that
everyone freaked out about, but doesn't seem like that's gonna.
Cost him any plank time in the season and not even completely
remove his practice reps in the offseason.
So I think we're going to start to get, Oh yeah, Bateman's good
stuff coming out here before week one and people are going to
stop being so nervous about it. So give me a shot, Bateman at
the pick near 100 now I think I'm getting.
I think I'm scooping the bottom here or close to the bottom
where I when I have a Lamar team now, I I push him to the 9th.
So if I'm sitting there like pick 84, whatever, I push it.
I wait. I wait to see if I get him.
We're on the next pick. I think that's fine, but I think
that's you're gonna start getting sniped on that, you're
gonna get annoyed and you're gonna start prioritizing in the
8th and everyone else is gonna start doing that.
And that's how we get that ADP rise.
I think yeah I think that's smart.
I I've I've been just reaching on him in Lamar stacks because I
did get sniped once trying to do that strategy.
I'm like, literally it makes. You.
I'm not taking it. It makes you insane because then
because then you're. Like and you have to say go
dude, then you gotta do you don't.
You actually don't. No, you gotta do it.
You gotta do it. I am on track.
Kings where he go, where he what goes.
Even later I took Odell, I went took Flowers, Odell to try to
get the triple because we want the triple.
That's the only way you can do it.
And I didn't get Bateman and I I mean, I've already mentioned
this on the show like 3 weeks ago, but I think about that team
all the time. I could.
It's a 555. It could have, could have
Bateman. So annoying, yeah.
I I don't like being this argument cuz I think it's like
it's so hard to predict. But like if I was gonna say like
one group of players are the low advance rate, high ceiling
players, I think it's Ravens wide receivers.
Like I think it's gonna be really frustrating and like
maybe none of them are really gonna separate during the
regular season. But man, just sneaking a Lamar
Bateman stack into the playoffs just seems so, so funny.
What if they're? What if they're?
What if they're high advance rate, high win rate player?
I think that's what they are. Lamar, they could be both.
I'm taking a I'm taking a bunch of them.
So I hope that yeah, but. Yeah, Lamar seems like he could
pretty clearly be one of the answers to the test this year.
Dude, I'm reaching on Lamar so much in the third.
Not reaching a ton, but like once, like the couple players
are gone, like, I'm just, I'm just taking Lamar over like
Ramadra and taking over. Yeah, all those guys.
I am too, and by the way. Comment on why are we so out on
Adele? I am actually on Sam's side of
this work. I'm so in on Lamar that I will
take my I'll eat my Odell vegetables at times.
I'm definitely gonna be underweight, but I'm not out.
I have a I've got some some slow draft wisdom for my fellow
Slappy's out there, which is that actually people are so
hyper fixated on their stacks. You were actually much more
likely to get the 3-4 Lamar Andrews in slow drafts,
especially in the Puppy. So like I'm in a bunch of these
right now and I I I think I have 3 Andrews Lamar teams going
right now. Like you know, obviously not all
of them are to the third round yet, but people are just so
hyper fixated on there that they don't catch the followers.
As like obviously if it's egregious of guys 10 spots past
or whatever, but people are so hyper fixated on their stacks
that you're you're more likely to get it in these slow drafts.
I wish I had some more, some more of those.
Lamar Andrews It's It's tough to do.
Anyways, let's wrap here. Did I?
Oh, in my head I thought I did. Did I not say one out loud yet?
I don't think you did, unless we really weren't paying attention.
Whoa, yeah. No, I didn't.
I'm gonna go with wow, I already, I already have, like,
outlined the the argument in my head that I forgot.
I didn't actually say it. I'm gonna go with Josh Jacobs
here. We got kind of the news today
that he's back. It's kind of sketchy reporting,
but I trust it. Here's the weird thing on
Jacobs. I I see it going two ways.
I think there's this perception that we're getting this huge
Jacobs discount now since he's been holding up.
That's actually not true. His ADP was like stubbornly like
28 through all of like May and June.
Because I think like all the wide receivers, sickos were
drafting then maybe the market was like sharply baking an 80
holdout risk then. I don't actually think it was.
I think it was just like sickos. You don't like Josh Jacobs.
We're just not clicking him well, so.
They've done OK so far. Sure, they've done OK so far.
So that's the weird thing though is that with his holdout, he's
only fallen like 2-2 picks. Yeah, so I was actually making
the argument to some people other day that like if he
reports is the market even that excited about Josh Jacobs like
they weren't before. But I think the market always
double counts and reacts to news.
So like ultimately when he reports, I think people are
gonna be like, you know, reminding you of Josh Jacobs
stats last year. Whatever he's gonna shoot up to
the end of the second round, he'll pass Jonathan Taylor.
I think especially if Taylor's like injury stuff is still like
knocking him down, so. That's that's holdout ends.
You think he goes ahead of Taylor or not?
No, no, probably. Probably not.
Yeah, I think that's right. Yeah, to me, like, and I don't
know, I'm speculating here, like the Taylor like holdout stuff
feels like worse than the Jacobs Holdout stuff.
But people have made arguments both ways.
To me, the Taylor thing just feels like more personal.
Plus you also have this like legitimate injury thing that's
like, I don't think we can completely ignore the injury
thing with with Taylor. So anyways, that's my stance on
Jacobs. Let's talk through these running
back situations. There's there's a couple things
that we learned here in the preseason on these running
backs. We don't need to spend a ton of
time on each one individually. I think how I'd summarize it.
Is that like Kyron Williams and Kiante Ingram are like very
clearly the running back twos on their team, but they're on
really like gross teams or just like talents we're not sure
about. Whereas Rico Dowdle and Chris
Evans are in much more exciting situations.
But I think there's still like uncertainty as to whether
they're actually the running back twos on their teams.
And then Josh Kelly is like in the middle where like we don't.
He's like his. I think Josh Kelly is pretty
clearly the running back to. I just think it does.
He might be the clear running back to you right now.
But I think the chances of him holding that for 17 weeks are so
low because he's not very good. And this is what the Chargers
always do or they have done the last three years.
They've had one guy they thought was going to be the running back
to and then it ended up being Caitlin Bellage or Sony Michelle
or whoever, just because these guys are, are no good.
Dowdle, it is interesting. So he didn't start in the
preseason last week. Malik Davis did.
Then Dowdle started this week. I would be surprised if Dowdle
holds the running back to job over Malik Davis, but I think
the the weird flying the ointment here is that Deuce
Vaughn seems like a lock for the 53.
So there's really only and and deuce.
Vaughn's role is sort of separate from Pollard and
separate from the handcuff so there's only one of Dowdle or
Davis can make the roster. I really thought it was going to
be Malik Davis. I feel less confident in that
now especially because the athletics Cowboys writers
project Dowdle to make the 53 ahead.
Kyron is like such a I have a 0 running back team and I just
need someone. I think he's going to be on the
field in week one. Like you took a 0 running back
team with with Brees Hall and Alvin Kamara and you're like I
just might not have to I might not have a running back to who's
active. So I got to take Kyron Ingram.
I actually think is kind of exciting because the Cardinals
are gonna run a ton and you really are a James Connor ankle
turn away from like an 80% snap share guy.
Like, like truly, like, they they they're running back, dude.
They signed and then they immediately hurt Marlon Mack.
So Corey Clement is the running back three, and he was just
playing in the fourth quarter of the second preseason.
Yeah, it looks like he's behind like Amari de Marcado now.
He like, got fully, Yeah. He's done, yeah.
So that's my take. And then Chris Evans is a good
pick. Those are my take.
I think Chris, yeah, Pat, what, what, like, who are you taking
out of this group, if anybody? I think you do.
You want, listen, you want to take a guy who actually has the
role. If you're diving into, it's like
otherwise just like go take Jeff Wilson or Kenneth Gain.
Well, you know, or like reach a little bit for Jalen Warren or
you know, like all these dudes. I mean Jill Warren's like if
you're reaching, you're not taking the 10th.
So maybe that's not a good sample.
But there's there's other guys where I'm.
Pretty confident that I have something and I don't have to
spend like that much more and then I can spend my last round
pick on two to Atwell or that Michael Wilson.
That's the other thing I wanted to say is my favorite 18th round
picks now are all wide receivers, which was not true
among the tightest. So it's totally different.
Yeah, the two V twos at tight. Like if you take the 13th round
tight end and the 18th round running back.
I'm almost always prefer the reverse of that where I've got
the 13th round running back and the 18th round tight end.
Or maybe it's 12th and 18th instead.
Or whatever. But.
Like if I'm going to dive into these very late round running
backs, I would really prefer that they have a role because I
don't think any of them are particularly good.
Like I don't think Chris Evans is good.
I don't think any of these guys have ever shown me anything to
make me think they're good. I mean even Ingram who was like
mildly interesting, was the 7th round pick they signed Marlon
Mack to be the backup. Like when Marlon Mack came in,
it was like, yeah, he'll be the number two now and they got
hurt. So I don't mean, I don't know.
I just like. If I don't have a like a
definite role with these guys, what is the point?
And that makes me actually the most interested in Josh Kelly
and Kyron Williams. So it's the grossest of the two,
I think in terms of the talent. But like, I don't know like
they're the guys, like they're clearly the number twos there
that's, that might change. But right now I think I have by
far the most confidence that Kyron Williams and Josh Kelly
are actually the number twos. After that would probably be
Ingram and Dowdle. But I don't know I I don't know
how much confidence to have in doubt all I guess you guys could
like talk me into doubt all I don't even know that much about.
Him I see. I like.
I like Malik Davis better. Yeah, I thought Malik Davis kind
of flashed so. Yeah but he's been he's he was
clearly behind him in last week's pieces in game.
Again he I think he played ahead of him in the first pieces in
the game. So it's a little weird, but man,
I don't know and maybe ultimately like these, I think
these are now awesome guys on your managed.
League radar, especially like Chris Evans, like on my manage
league radar, I would be pretty pumped about taking Chris Evans
and just seeing if he has the running back two role in
Cincinnati Treyvion. Yeah, you can take Treyvion too.
Like, man, I don't know. I guess one last question like
that. That is why I agree with that
like take the bigger swings and manage like don't don't.
Ohh I think it's Josh Kelly so I'll take Josh Kelly like that's
a best ball take. Yeah, to be clear, like bet on
talent and manage because you can cut the guys.
Yeah. The thing is though, like in
basketball mania and maybe the best thing to say is like maybe
maybe wait another week, another 10 days on these guys.
And I think the situations will become a little bit clearer with
some of them. So not take like, I'm not saying
you have to take them now. I do think like in 10 days I do
want to be taking some Dallas RV2.
I do want to be taking some Cincinnati RV2.
Just because man like they these guys have not been drafted all
of best fall mania and imagine like Joe Mixon tears his ACL.
Like aren't you so pumped to have like the 50% snap share guy
instance? Even if it's like a full blown
committee? Like, isn't that such an awesome
role to have shares or your team?
Like like, let's just say for example, Joe Mixon.
Like, let's let's say he gets arrested for whatever for this
incident where he was brandishing a gun before a
playoff game. Like where does where does Chris
Evans and Trevion Williams? And Chase Brown go like they all
get spiked up. Yeah, but like you only make a
bet on one of those guys in Best Ball and you don't get to change
the bet later. So like there is there's what
are the chances that happens multiplied by what are the
chances you actually drafted the right guy.
And that's to me, like in the comment here, Sueann said that
he's not played that common women's hasn't played a
preseason game, which is one of the reasons maybe his ADP hasn't
changed. I think that's pretty bullet.
Not that's it. That's funny that, like for a
Ram, not playing in a preseason game means you're playing in the
regular season. Means you're like a starter.
Means you're like, obviously he's not a starter and Cam Inch
is a starter, but he hasn't did. You guys catch?
Did you guys catch that 22 rested Week 1?
But Puka Nakua also rested in Week 2 with with that well.
So Nakua is like won the 4th wide receiver job probably.
Yeah, the Rams have pretty clearly signaled who their top
four wide receivers and top 2 running backs are.
Like, I don't even think it's a question that Kyron's like,
clearly the running back to you. It's just like, man, it's you
have to be pretty confident. He sucks and he's a pass
catcher. I know he's not athletic, but he
was productive. And that's The thing is he's not
athletic. But he was good at Notre Dame
like he was good. Yeah.
And look, if I'm betting on a guy who's not athletic, I would
really strongly prefer that he catches passes because that's a
more skill based activity where you can actually, right.
If you're overcoming athleticism you want to do or lack of
athleticism, you would like to be doing it with highly skilled
stuff. And he's got that, like, I think
I'm, I'm gonna get more. I don't have a ton of Kyron on
an underdog. I've got 5% of them on
DraftKings. I've got a bunch of them on
DraftKings, yeah, but I'm. I'm gonna start drafting him.
We've gotten the information we need on Kyron.
I think he's clearly the number two.
I only have 2% on Underdog, and I think not that that's a leak
because we didn't have this information.
We've had it for maybe about a week and I sort of slept on it.
But I think it's time. I think it's time to take Kyron.
These are sort of the microedges that can be gained though, by
the way, is stuff like taking Kyron Williams and Round 18
right now. Because also from like a roster
construction perspective, having that in your back pocket is
nice. And it does.
Like for example, you'd be kind of locked out of Michael of
Michael Wilson right now if you didn't really know what you were
doing with those eighteenth round picks.
Now like you'd have to be like, well, I got to do XY&Z, but now
you can if you can take Kyron or you can take.
Jake Ferguson, who's weirdly still available in round 18
sometimes. Or two, two out.
Well, or whoever it actually gives you buys you a little bit
of flexibility back to take some of these risers.
Yeah, it is tough. And Pat made this point because
structurally I'm like so rarely looking for running back in
Round 18 because, yeah. Jalen Warren's available as my
running back five in round 11 or whatever and I'm just like let's
be done at running back and get a guy with the role like and
then I can get, you know, whatever tight end.
I can find tight ends and wide receivers so easily in around 18
that I know have roles. But it's like I think some
percent of the time like I do want to embrace the uncertainty
with these late round running backs who aren't being drafted
at all. Like Chris Evans.
I don't know how many PBM teams he's been drafted on, but like.
1% of teams like again. That's that's a really good
point. It's like, yeah, the leverage
piece there is interesting. Can I ask you guys some because
this is like almost a new topic. It is a new topic, but I just,
I'm so intrigued by what's happening with the 5-6 turn
where all these wide receivers who are like features of the
six, seven turn are coming up. Pickens, Evans, like all those
guys, Waller not a wide receiver but you know non running back
kind of moving up to the 5-6 turn and it's actually like
still creating this. It's like even more running back
value maybe than we had previously where I thought we
were going to get this these like running back values this
time of year. But it's kind of the opposite.
It's gotten even more wide receiver heavy to my mind.
It has, yeah. It's just it's actually, it's
very surprising to me and I don't quite know what to make of
it. Yeah, it's it's led me to like
it's weird. It's led me to more like true
hyper fragile builds than I was doing before.
I was doing a lot of like running back early but then
still ending up with five cuz I'd take a couple early, wait a
bunch, take some of the Jalen Warren range and up with five.
This ADP shift has like made me look at like the Sanders, the
Acres guys like a little bit more and then so I'm just
stopping at 4:00 which like I don't.
You can argue if that's good or bad, but yeah, I agree with you
Pat. I don't.
I gotta think more about it cuz I honestly don't have a good
answer whether that adjustment I'm making is is sharp or or or
stupid. It's just like it feels like it
feels like to me. I can the the quantity over
quality at wide receiver thing. I think I have enough answers
about why receivers late that I feel like I'm OK with doing with
the 24102 or 2493 thing and like being OK, but certainly feels
gross. So I don't know, it's it's
weird. I'm surprised that that's
happening because like Pickens, you know, I think Pickens is a
OK breakout bet. But it was one I was kind of,
you know, mostly in on in the early 7th round, but wasn't
super excited. Now he's like in the early 6th
and it's like, yeah, what is the difference between him and
Bateman? You know, like I I think I'd
prefer Bateman. Well, Sean put Sean put Pickens
in his 2024 second round preview.
That's the difference. Well, that that is the
difference. But, but I guess I'm like, I'm
kind of leaning more towards what you're saying Sam.
We're like, shit, I I'll take Damien Pierce or JK Dobbins.
Yeah, in the early 6th instead. And that's my RB 3.
And then maybe I grab one more and I'm done.
So yeah, I kind of I've, I've been swimming against that
current because I just, I mean, but I what I'm wondering is, am
I just anchored to those previous Adp's that Jordan
Addison should be a early 7th round pick and not a mid 6th and
Mike Evans should be in the 7th? That's actually a pretty that.
It's very good to be cognizant of that and not anchor yourself,
because then you're just gonna end up drafting a bunch of teams
with of followers, which I we don't really want actually, you
know? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
You gotta know when you're taking ADP value, you gotta know
if it's like real ADP value or if that guy is a syncing.
Or if that's the direction the guy is going.
Yeah, which I think I've had mixed success with that this
year trying to scoop ADP value. I think usually I do it right,
but like Michael Pittman is an example.
I have a ton of Pittman, just cuz I was scooping Pittman
earlier I was scooping value and then it turned out.
I don't think it was, really. Bad I I so I'm in this spot.
I'm in this spot with Pittman where I don't even actually like
Michael Pittman, but just structurally pretty sure I fit
around Pittman and I was getting.
Those for. Sure I do.
Yeah, it was good value couple of.
I've got. I've got 12% Michael Pittman
because I get in a spot in a draft where I'm like my
quarterback isn't figured out yet.
So I'll just take Pittman and then take Richardson and that'll
figure out quarterback for me. Like, I actually, I actually
think Pittman's probably a pretty shitty bet, honestly,
where he where he goes. But it's like structurally I
need to give myself a high upside quarterback, wide
receiver pairing. Well, here's the other issue for
me with that cuz I I caught myself doing that on a pick
where I was like, you don't even remotely like Pittman better
than this guy. You're about to take him over.
Like, wait, for me, it's Dotson and Pittman.
I'm like, I like Dotson way better, but I don't like taking
how nearly as much as I like taking Richardson.
Yeah, so I have. I'm at 13, 1/2% Pittman.
Yeah, on underdog. But the the alternate structure
there is if you still need that quarterback and then you just
take Richardson anyway and you go get Alec Pierce.
But I have 19% Pierce. So I'm exhausted, that strategy
as well. Maybe I'm just taking too much.
Richardson is my fourth most drafted player, but he's he's
someone I thought about doing for the riser because I think it
will occur to people he's the weak one starter eventually,
right? Yeah, it should, yeah.
I don't know. Pittman, like, I think where he
goes now is totally fine. But yeah, it was a mistake for
me to, like, not think about. He's a guy who's going to fall
once people do projections, blah blah blah.
Man pick 75. The way I've been coping with my
Pittman exposure is he's DJ Moore about 45 picks later.
The way you cope with it is you just tell yourself there's no
way I have it real cope. No your hope.
Your hope is you tell yourself there's no way I have him
without Anthony Richardson. Even if it's not true.
You definitely do, but just tell
you can't. You can't look at those teams.
Don't go. Back can't.
Look, you gotta just tell yourself, I only have him with
Anthony Richardson. Anthony Richardson's gonna start
from week one. He's gonna grow into the job.
And by Week 17 in that Dome game against the shitty Raiders, it's
gonna be all ironed out. And it's gonna be beautiful.
Yeah, I mean, load man's right. High win rate.
Pittman's got Michael. UN ironically, that actually
might be Michael Pittman. That's that's good.
That's yeah, that's a good way, good way on the show.
Good stuff guys. I think we'll be back next week
doing whatever the high stakes tournament is.
An underdog that is out at that point might be a bulldog, might
be whatever they move on to next.
But we'll be doing that draft live here, so we'll send more
details out about that. But if you want to draft against
us, if you want to, you know, draft against the losers that
just scoop ADP value and end up with 15% Michael Pittman, you'll
have a chance to do that. But yeah, this was a good show.
Davis, Pat. Anything you guys have?
Coming up their respective sites.
JJ is going to be on the Take Cast and the Sports Grid Fans
Football Podcast this week. We're going to do the last two
years we've done just like if you're not a super virgin and
you're just starting to do your fantasy football drafts now,
like kind of like a draft guide. So that I got that coming up and
then Crane and I are about to have.
Maybe the most virginal, virginal discussion in the
history of best ball. We're gonna talk about how
dynasty drafting and dynasty rankings can help you draft best
ball teams, which is, I mean, that is down the fucking that is
down the rabbit hole. It was Eric's idea.
So, maybe surprisingly, I don't know that he would have been the
favorite to be the most. Virginal, but it's not.
I don't even understand. I don't.
I'm not even a virgin enough to understand with it.
What is it? Wow.
Look at Sam's big. It's the idea of, I don't know,
we're gonna, we'll figure it out.
We'll discuss what the topic even means once we get on there.
Check it out. Cool.
Legendary. Anything else?
Anything else for you? Yeah, my legendary running back
article. I'm going to have out later this
week. And it's free.
Guys, It's completely free. So sign up for
legendaryupside.com, Get on the newsletter.
Get that delivered right to your inbox.
If you do want to sign up for the paid version, you can hear
me narrate this thing and that'll cost you 99 bucks for
the year. But you can get a $50 underdog
credit on the on the main site there, there's a form you got to
fill out to give me your username and then you get that
$50 underdog credit. So pretty sweet deal.
And I think because of the way running back ADP is gone, I
think I'm actually going to do a followup article.
Traditionally I've only done like the legendary running back
article through the first you know, two rounds or so.
But there's so many high upside guys going in like round four
now that I think I'm going to do a follow up article exploring
the upside of the dead zone this year.
So lots of good running back analysis on the site in the next
week or so. Sounds awesome.
We'll be back next week doing high stakes.
Until then, good luck in your drafts.