Hello everybody. We have Davis back from
shredding, the Gnar and Colorado, and Pat has been deep
in the lab analyzing this year's crop of rookies.
Got a ton of ATP movements discuss, with Anthony
Richardson, Richard white and yes, even Sky more rocketing up,
draft boards. We'll break it all down here on
this beautiful Friday of NFL combine week, welcome to chasing
crane. I mean ATP, chasing past prior
homos handjob. Fix your side with your bar.
Hey everybody. How are you doing doing?
Good Davis. Join us Davis.
How was your time out in Colorado?
I mean, it was amazing. Skiing is, it was a little bit
harder than I remembered. I had done it since I was young
like 14 or 15. So it was a little bit more
difficult. And I remembered a lot of a lot
of I just you're so beat at the end of the day, you know, No.
Like I think if you're good, it's not that much of a taxing
experience, but when you're bad, and you're basically using your
entire body just to stay upright, going down the
mountain, it, it gets, it gets difficult.
Yeah, I that's exactly where I'm going, skiing next weekend and
kind of got back into it a little bit last year, after not
really doing it much since high school and Brittany learned.
So we're kind of like, I'm actually like it's a kind of
nice that she's learning because I'm like, basically not that far
ahead. Yeah, we can, we can do some
greens. Babe.
We can do it. Let's do some great.
You want to do a green? Yeah, I feel that.
Yeah, yeah. I feel the same way like I ski a
lot, but I'm always overly ambitious on ski trips and by
like day three, I'm just like, why do we plan five days of
skiing in a row? I have my legs just.
Yeah, can't handle this anymore. It's a grand.
And you don't, you don't stretch and it's like, you just your
brain is not processing it. Like you're doing like when I'm
gonna go golf or skateboarding or go to the gym or whatever,
Right. You know, I'm going to stretch,
I'm going to hydrate. I'm gonna do what I need to do,
but skiing you're like I'm just hanging out with my Bros and
then all of a sudden you're going cold and you're at the top
of a mountain and you're like, I got to get to the bottom here,
you know. Yeah.
It's kind of like haven't having a couple beers too and like,
doing extreme physical exhaustion when you probably
shouldn't be shouldn't be drinking on top of that.
Yeah, it's a funny. When I support you guys been
following the FL combine news at all.
I know there's been like a lot of Coach interviews and stuff
this week, curious, if anything is really jumped out, I know we
haven't really seen the like the skill position players do much
the combine yet. So yeah, curious, if you guys
have any takeaways from the interviews or anything so far,
When I couldn't be following it any closer I don't think so.
I'm not following that close with the you know I will be
following extremely close once we get the wide receivers tight
ends. Yeah, I don't care about, I
don't care about the edge rushing 40 times or anything
other than for like wagering purposes.
But I mean, the number one takeaway for me is I literally
will not drop the Dallas Cowboy like I just I'm not doing it.
Like everything. Mike McCarthy says is dumber
than the last thing he said like the idea that That he and Kellen
Moore wanted to part ways because Kellen Moore wanted to
score points with this, Court's reading points.
Mike McCarthy is like, you know, Kellen scoring points,
officially moving the ball down the field.
It's a really substantial really hurt our defense, man, cool.
It I love when you thought of that instantly thought it was
like so smart. He said it's like I'm gonna
criticize this guy for wanting to score points like guys try to
light up the scoreboard total idiot.
He doesn't he doesn't get ahold of you here.
This is not Cowboys football. Well, that's it.
I mean, obviously, I completely agree McCarthy is a stone-cold
moron, but I also just drafted a big board team and I stacked up
the Cowboys because I feel like the the atp's are like fairly
palatable for everybody. Got CD lamb and the second, I
went Jonathan Taylor than CD lamb.
Out of the 111 Dak, you can get I think I got him at the
7-Eleven which is it like an amazing.
That's that know, I think that feels Rich for deck.
I don't think it's that That rich given that he can generate
a spike week because the defense isn't gonna be as good.
So there will be volume weeks, just, they won't be mended.
It's also a choice but they'll happens in the context of the
other key be atp's. That's the thing is right.
My brain, my brain is not fully translated to the new.
Yeah. It's like Trevor Lawrence in the
versus press contacts. Like DeShaun Watson.
Who was the worst quarterback in the league last year.
It goes like toothpicks after Dak, do you?
Okay. Let's let's stare.
Newark, let's turn to our crystal ball.
Close your eyes. You know, we're imagining
ourselves, it's important. I feel like I'm talking to
Kitchen, we're trying to defend his title.
We're all just, you know, we're sick.
We want it. We want to win the two million
dollars. That is 1 point 0 5 Grands.
That's all it was. We just we just want to get we
want to get to we want to get 2.5 of cranes right?
I can't keep my eyes closed this long.
It's do we. Do we think that when the more
casuals than the true sick fucks who are who are drafting right
now? Do we think Trevor Lawrence is
going to go in the fourth? Do we think know that moms like
the? We're gonna see a sliding scale
of these guys? Almost for sure, right?
I think these atp's are bad. Personally, I just don't I'm
like, I don't see how like yeah, it's fine like the you probably
do okay, in advance rates and stuff but I just You're trying
to win three straight uncorrelated tournaments, and
then finish, first out of a huge fields in the final week.
Not having a sec around skill player seems like a disadvantage
to do that, especially if they're upside of the
quarterback position later. And I think there is well my
sense is that it's probably being driven by the uncertainty.
This is probably going to be the most.
Like, there's got to be the most uncertain quarterback offseason
and my adult life. I mean, maybe 50% of teams in
the league, you're gonna have a new Quarterback.
Yeah, I think that's right. And I do my take on.
It is like I think for sure the Herbert Lawrence like, even
Borough types will slide, but I'm not actually sure that like
Alan Mahomes hurts will slide all too much.
Like what I just think like the Casual is drafting will you
know, they are going to see like those names we like best
quarterback in the league like I want Mahomes Josh a on my team
and number two like well I do think some of the quarterbacks
later have Upside to get like 20 points per game, like, Alan
Mahomes have been like consistently doing what 25 plus
points per game over the last, like several years and like I
think it's pretty predictable. This point, they'll do it again.
It's hard for me to see like the ceiling of someone getting
getting to that. No they won't.
But you only need it for one week like you need to get
through to week 17 and then get a spike week from someone else.
And then you've got if you get that Spike week you're Now, like
a massive favorite over those Elite quarterback teams because
they paid 12 turn prices. Like you're getting a player at
the one to turn on top of you know, like the two V, two verses
you get a spike week from a dude in round 10.
Like you gave me go swimming in the second round burst of their
10th in any given week. Let's Jalen Hurd says - - 200 to
score, more fantasy points than Kenny pick it, right?
That sound. Right - one dish, sep 17 percent
ish. Yeah and I mean I would put it
on fire for him to for him to have a spike week.
I think he's more than for him. Sorry what I'm saying what I'm
saying is - 200, favorites, lose all the time.
Yes, Glee is basically the point yet.
I mean in defense of the hurts drafter, there are the odds that
he has like a meaningful Spike weaker.
Better than - 200 oh still, I think, you know.
Yeah, I mean, I'm just thinking like there's a reason in DFS,
I'm not huge into a, you guys know better than me, but there's
a reason people pay up for the top price quarterbacks in DFS,
like it's actually time. It it's actually kind of.
So yes, you do pay up for the top prize, quarterbacks a lot.
But a lot of the time, like analysis of like top 1% finishes
Milly maker finishes, it actually tends to be your true
bisque. He's your Daniel Jones.
Your it's like those are the type of guys that actually end
up having like a really high top one percent finish right now,
cheaper quarterbacks with a little bit of rushing.
This is what I'm saying, like your your odds.
Like, if you're playing in a draft King style, best ball
tournament where you're making looking to make a 12-team field
in the final, in the final round is only 12 teams.
I would be much more open to these prices at quarterback but
if you're looking at a big final week it's not that any one of
these later on quarter. Is particularly likely to spike.
But if you get that Spike, its massive, leverage off, I mean at
these prices, it's just massive Yeah, I think I think you guys
are making good points. I'm still a little bit more open
to it than I think you guys are. Just because I think the
probability of a Josh Allen Mahomes hurt Spike week that
just massively separates from the field is, is pretty likely
and like somewhat fairly baked with those prices.
And also, the fact that like I don't know.
In these tournaments, you need, you probably need like two or
maybe even three of your Stacks to go off over that like three
weeks span. So like, you know, you just need
Alan. In to really separate in one of
those three weeks like 15 16 or 17 to carry you and then maybe,
you know, have a cheaper guide week 17 that in in these
contests specifically isn't that worse though in the big board
and these really early ones I feel like it's worse because the
there's so much uncertainty with the stacking right?
Like obviously if you get it right but like what are the what
is the Bills wide? Receiver room going to look like
in six months. What is the Chiefs wide
receiver? Like those like the Chiefs wide
receiver situation. I mean It's like who, like who
literally, who knows? Like they could cut MBS.
Like they Jus is going to be on a different team.
Like there's so many and and I mean, Sam.
I think you're right? Like I think I'm a home stack.
If I got to choose like that would probably be.
I'd probably do hurt stacked would be like the number one
thing I want in a theoretical week 17, but a Mahomes would
probably be number two. But I mean, it could be like
they're just like, literally I have no idea who is going to be
catching passes for moms that. This year, like they're going to
look so different in my opinion. Yeah.
And kind of the, on the flip side of that I brought this up
last week you can go Tyree kill, Jalen waddle and Tua is got an
ATP of 96. So now, I actually have a legit
stack that if it goes off. I'm got the entire passing
offense, most likely, with like ceiling with a huge Celia and a
quarterback. Then, come along for a big old
Spike week into it. We know he can is he more risky
than the tops if you take place. You cope do?
You take Jacoby per set on that team or something kind of
Thompson or with 20 rooms? It's Teddy.
It's Teddy Bridgewater's. Teddy Bridgewater.
You know. God will get injured by the
first quarter. Yeah.
Now I think the key piece of is interesting.
I'm definitely like I want to keep monitoring it this Austin
and especially if the price is don't change.
Like I think at some point you gotta ask yourself are you
willing to just have zero Chief spills?
You Eagles Stacks throughout the whole year.
If the prices you can build equal Stacks, though, like this
is a thing. You want to talk about the dff
DFS comparisons like in DFS. You can often go with a stack of
a team and then a cheaper quarterback to save salary.
So you can do that with the Eagles, you can go is your brown
and Dallas ghadir, you can tack on a Kenny gain well or whatever
and you've got the Eagles. Now if the Eagles go go off and
it's through the air, you might be able to be K a quarterback.
But especially you know, if you are able to go down and find an
Anthony Richardson or something, he gives you spike week, we'll
get to him later but there's other guys, you know, there's
there's other dudes I think are very palatable that can at least
have a shot of keeping you in contention.
And then it's not that you need that quarterback to outscore
hurts when the Eagles go off. So you need to keep you close
enough. So that your second round pick.
Can I help you get there? I think Pat is making the best
point which is that the The easiest spot to make.
Points up at in a final is going to be at quarterback, right?
Like if you have the if you have the wide receiver, like if you
just got to choose, I want to choose the highest scoring
running back high-scoring. Wide receiver, high-scoring,
Titan high-scoring quarterback. I guess you probably actually
take the highest scoring tight end because the the probably
would ya. The floor at tight end is so
low, but wide receiver would probably be to you'd probably
say I'd take the highest court quarterback would be last if you
got to if you got to choose it would be because even I mean We
literally had this Pat. You had Brady and Daniel damn,
Daniel Jones went off and it actually it fira, it almost
actually hurt you that they both that they both could actually
hurt me because my Kevin scored too many points.
So that was a concern. I would have been, I still
needed Godwin and DJ more to do stuff, but like, Brady made my
final lineup but I would have won with Daniel Jones as well
because he had such a good game, correct?
Yeah. Any sense.
Yeah they'll be I think this this quarterback debate is going
to go on through the whole season, let's get into you just
to kind of. Yeah.
But I don't think that your Advanced rates will be bad by
drafting these quarterbacks. I think they'll probably be
pretty good. We don't care what?
I had Advanced rates, bro. We're chasing Curry out to make
the Liam argument that like, what if Josh Allen is the best
pick because he has a really low Advance rate and then smashes,
you can finals. Good, make that it's a lot.
Yeah, I mean, he could be to Mike Evans, baby.
No, I think that argument. Is bad at quarterback, though.
I think that argument is really good at tight ends.
I think that's the best one where you could be.
Like, I literally do not care how many points my second tight
end in best Ball Mania for scores for the entirety of the
season. If he gets 18 in week, 17,
that's the Alberto argument basically.
Yeah. Yeah I don't know.
I knew I just think I didn't think our dough and make an
appearance like so much of so much of we're
going to spend so much time, thinking about it.
We're going to do all these shows.
We're going to do all this. Straps and so much of it is
going to be Randomness in terms of the group that you draft
against the pods you get put in in the playoffs, you know, when
a guy twists his ankle when he doesn't twist his ankle and
basically literally, all that matters is generating the most
amount of points in week 7. I mean, we did.
Yeah, we did this. I did this thought experiment
last year at the end of the season which is took all the
highest-scoring players at the position.
In every round 1 through 18 in underdog, And we did the math
and we figured out that that team would not have advanced,
that team would have been way below the cutoff line, what
would have advanced? So, like you literally have the
optimal lineup for underdogs scoring and week 18 and it would
not have generated enough points to advance their basically, oh
my God, it wouldn't have been, when would it have gotten
knocked out? Did you probably?
I mean, it was, it was like, it was something like 200 or 300
points worse than that. That the median advancing score.
Yeah. Oh my god, well, I think you're
the guy who won the regular season King?
Can cap. He's his best team got
eliminated in the first round in the first round.
Like that. Like that, it's like sickening
like. Right.
It's yeah, you know, we don't you just have to, which is
actually, I think an argument for correlating even more like
the, the weeks that's like, the best ball mockers, you know?
They were like, no other matters is week 17.
You didn't draft you ass Jacobs, bro, have fun.
Staying for and Josh Jacobs was like on none of the finals
teams. I think, Josh a Cubs.
I off the top of my head. I think he scored 28.
Eight half PPR points, the three playoff with?
Yeah, I believe. But the thing with that is
That's So Random is just like you you take the 17 weeks and
you like put it into a randomizer and it could be that
Josh a cups like best weeks. Common 1516.
Yeah. But that's really right.
Like there's no like I think there's almost like no real
lesson from that. You like you can make the
argument may be like, rookies, get better at the end, you know,
veterans tail off. I kind of by that but with Josh
Jacobs I think that was just pure Randomness.
Like he did was total Randomness, yeah, right.
It was 100%, it was 100% random. But the lesson actually is is
that having the quote-unquote League winner is actually bad.
You actually like having 50% just like let's say last year
just in Jefferson was the playoff winner and then he did
nothing in the final which is one of the reasons that Austin
Echo are going off for my team was so massive because not only
you could net, you can have both of them, we wouldn't have both.
So it was direct leverage off of Justin Jefferson.
So I mean that's obviously pure Randomness is As well, but I
don't know, but but that's actually, that's actually
instructed. That's actually a way to think
about drafting, right? So, if there are two players
whose combinatorial ownership is either low or impossible, you
should start thinking about. Okay?
If Justin Jefferson and Austin hecklers and impossible team
when I take or when I'm or if it's a possible team and I'm
wanting leverage off that decision.
So like when I take Jonathan Taylor over Bijan and let's say
Bijan, goes to the car. All right, so then on Jonathan
Taylor teams. Maybe you're more likely to take
Rondo more right, or right? And you're more likely to take
Kyler or whoever, you know, and that, I mean, that is like,
literally, like ninth layer, like, probably too much even
before. It's like, probably too much to
even be thinking about, that's when looks like, uh, is this
sharper, insane? I don't know.
You know, I'm not good enough.
I'm not good enough at math to know honestly?
Yeah, yeah, it's hard to tell. But I do think the your point
about the correlation being maybe on still underappreciated.
I do, I agree with that appreciated as so anyone with a
highly correlated lineup. Surprise, no one that I do agree
with that but I would the way I would put it is like it's not
that like being correlated is definitely gonna guarantee
anything for you far from it. But if you were if you're like
significantly better than the rest of the field, your odds of
making Getting the best photo Mania final the way they had it
last year. It's like you do well to get
there once every five years, Sam super sharp.
So you got to in this year somehow but you can weld this to
get one in every five years when you get it, when that happens.
And your number is called you want a lineup, that's got a
legit shot. That's actually like you can see
the path, like okay? Like, if this game goes off and
if this game goes off, now we're talking.
I mean, I do really feel strongly that you don't just
want to get there and it's like a bunch of dudes and you're
like, If I hit, you know, a 10 leg parlay.
I meant, especially when the final now is, well, we'll see
how the structure at this year. But last year, was 470 people in
the final, like, you need correlation which I'm totally on
board with that whole take like I'm caring about stacking.
I think even more this year than last year, like if I'm in the
ninth round and I took Justin fields and, you know, Darnell
Moon, he's still 26 ahead of ATP, but like I have a chance at
missing with the next pick. I'm probably just gonna take him
because, like when it comes to week 17, I don't want a naked
Justin fields in the file. Maybe that's a bad example with
Justin field because they're rushing but you get my point.
Well, no, but I like, especially actually is a good example
because it's like so far down that like yeah, it's like, who
cares? This could be an efficient?
Yeah, it's like, oh, you spent four dollars instead of three
dollars you blew it? Like, not really, you know, I
mean if you're thinking about nachshon terms, like maybe I was
always all, that's always been, that's always been how I've
treated like after like round 10.
Like I took a bunch of Of jail and Tolbert.
Last year, who I think may be ended up didn't even record a
catch. But like, I would say probably
I'd probably, I probably do that.
I probably I probably do that same thing again, like, third
round wide receiver of an offense.
I like, and I had a lot of the quarterback.
I mean, and I, you know, ended up being like one of the worst
prices but like, who cares? You know.
Yeah, yeah. The price made it a little
tougher but like, yeah, I had Thornton on mine and he didn't
really do anything. And then they got a touchdown.
Well, he had a, he had a, he probably made your for sure.
I bet he made your line up the week.
He scored two touchdowns. Yeah, that one we had like, two
week, two years of a week. So I think all he almost had his
second touchdown week 17 because I had him on one of my teams.
Oh, yeah. I know thing, that we're really
sad that such down, that would have brought me from 198 still
like 176. So, would have been huge for me?
Anyways, let's let's get to these atp's.
First guy I want to talk about that jumps out here.
Here Anthony Richardson for people following along an audio.
We're now looking at the largest ATP risers from the past week,
the top 10 biggest EDP Riser since February 24th.
Anthony Richardson is the biggest I think for the second
week in a row he jumped up about 25 spots last week in a teepee
he again is up another 25 spots and now sits at 170 in terms of
ADP, I think this is largely driven by betting Market
movements where his odds of going.
Number one overall have greatly increased in the past couple
days, just a lot more Buzz that the NFL media Scout types are
really buying into them as like a legit Prospect reducing.
The odds of us getting into like a Malik Willis type situation so
I think that's what is driving this.
But yeah, curious starting with you Davis.
What do you think of this price for Anthony Richardson at 170
overall for contacts and other cubies that puts him at QB?
Six behind Jordan love, Kenny Pickett CJ shroud.
But ahead of guys, like Sam Howell Mac Jones, Jimmy, G those
types. So, I guess the, the issue I
have with Anthony Richardson, is, I'm pretty confident he's
not going to play as a rookie. I think this is now is he the
the name he's getting compared to a lot is Malik Willis.
He's not bleep Willis, right? I think, well, it's Played at
Liberty. Anthony Richardson.
Played it Florida. A lot of different levels of
competition. I think Richardson is a way that
the younger too, right? Yes.
He's younger. He was a more efficient bigger?
Yeah. Yeah.
The thing that's going around right now is how much bigger
this dude is than Bryce young. He's like he like he like looks
like a linebacker and Bryce young.
Looks like someone's personal assistant who happens to be deaf
but I think that actually probably the Comp for me is
going to be Trea Lance. Yeah, he's trade.
Lance. Yeah, that's where the team.
I mean, you're like we had our opportunity.
Like there was an opportunity for trail and to play.
He didn't play as a rookie and less it absolutely was needed.
And I I could just I we already know that this is going to
happen during some teams going to trade up.
They're going to select Anthony Richardson, you know they're
going to draw. We traded a 2024 first-round
pick and you know and it's I don't know, you know we signed
with And Ryan Tannehill as our veteran quarterback.
We've seen Carson Wentz is our veteran quarterback, whatever.
And that, that is going to play, like 11 games and people like me
are going to be like, why wouldn't you just play Anthony
Richardson? Let him learn on the job and
he's just not going to play and it's going to be frustrating.
I think it's so that's definitely in play and I think
it's even in play that he gets the full Lance treatment where
we like never really see him because he lands on you know,
team that the feels confident if like maybe if he goes to the
Lions you know. And they're like Making a
playoff push, they would just straight up, not playing them.
But I think that what happened to Lance was, you know, a fairly
low and outcome for him in terms of the range of outcomes to not
play as the number three overall pick.
I think he could have kind of a low Lamar Jackson type of
introduction, type of rookie year where he comes in maybe
halfway through the season. I can't remember when he took
over for Flacco, but I feel like it was around midseason and
certainly played a lot more than Lance.
It. And so to me, the bet with
Richardson has been, I'm getting this guy for the fantasy
playoffs. I just need him to be playing
and weeks, 15, 16 and 17 and he's a spike week generator for
me. I think that we're now nearing a
point where that's starting to be like, not the best bet in the
world because you're starting to have to pay.
Like I did just draft him in the 14th round today, I'm do that.
Yeah, that's like you're not. There's now some downside like
If he if he doesn't play until the very end of the season, you
might have a lot of trouble advancing that team without, you
know. But that was a three quarterback
build and actually but I did, I did press got Watson and
Richardson. So I'm clearly like Richardson,
you can take the season off and show up for me and week 17 and
we're good, but I think at this price, you kind of have to think
about it a little bit more, but but I still think he's worth
drafting especially if you don't have a bunch.
I've got like 73% right now, so, yeah, I can.
Occasionally, I definitely see. I see both both sides argument
here. I did want to just quickly show
this to make the point that I definitely think there are
scenarios where he doesn't play it this year, but there are just
so many teams with like absolutely nothing at
quarterback. Then if you're projecting
Anthony Richardson to not start games this year, then you
quickly have to start projecting like Kyle trois Jared, siddim
Sam, darn old Matt Correll like you gotta you gotta project
someone like that to start. Eight games.
If Richardson is not starting like you know, Atlanta Carolina,
Houston Colts, Las Vegas. Well what about, I mean, I think
the most likely spot that I see that I am hearing smoke on is
Seattle, but Seattle would just give Geno Smith a one-year
contract for a lot of money because their cap situation is
fine. You give G, no one year.
I mean they could give him like one year, 35 million and just
have him and because they're, you know, they're not going to
win the Super Bowl, they don't care.
So yeah. I think that's.
Yeah, I think a spot. That's what scenarios that
that's not a lance scenario though.
That's like, is that a, is that a picket scenario?
Where we get? That's it, that's it.
That's a big ticket scenario but where the quarterback in place
is, you know, above a true Biscay level, right where it's
like, it's not painful to watch them.
Is it Ritter? Is it does it take as long as
Ritter to pass, Mariota, that type of thing?
No, I think Ritter wouldn't hurt us so bad.
Well, we're so bad right? But she knows better than
Mariota. I think.
I think the I think the Lions and the Seahawks seem like the
to downside scenarios and then like I'm having a hard time
imagining another one, where he doesn't play right away.
Like if he goes the Colts, I think he's probably the weak one
starter. Oh yeah.
They have are you can't? No, I can't I can't cosine with
that because you can never put the Colts out of Figuring out
like do like just finding the dustiest guy to come play
quarterback for that we're building.
His name is Matt Ryan. I think he's under contract.
Still think he's gonna think he's gonna retire retire.
Okay. Now, try this?
Yeah. Anyways, I think it at the price
of 17. I think he's going to continue
to rise. They'll be responsive to rise.
I mean, where are you? Where are you guys kind of
feeling queasy? And probably passing more often
than not, I guess Davis. Are you already there?
This this just feels like I guess the issue is is the way I
would have treated Richardson would have been the way I would
have treated rookie. Your Trail ants, which is I
preferred to take Lance and three quarterback builds.
Yeah, but it feels, it feels well, I guess it feels like the
three quarterback build is so bad because you are probably
sacrificing absolute ceiling in terms of you're not taking out
any Realms. Yeah.
But then so then you make your
round 20 pick the guys we just talked about, right?
Right. A Ritter a Trask, you know,
whoever like just a guy who might get eight starts.
Yeah. But you can also go like to
Stafford and Richardson and then it's like just get me there too
and Stafford and Richardson get me over the top.
Give me that week 17, Spike Lee the opportunity cost at other
positions. Once you get to pick one seventy
I'd say is also really low like wide receivers you're looking at
like Adam thielen, they're gone. John mechi mvs like running back
your At some of the dart thrower rookies.
And then like, I don't know, Jerick McKinnon semaj pier and
so like, maybe there's some opportunity cost there, but I
wouldn't be queasy patch your question until he gets to like
if you got like a bob of Stroud or like above the Stafford car
types, like guys that are more guaranteed to start throughout
the year, I would start to get queasy there but he's still
going very much in a range with like he's going next to love
Howell. Jimmy G.
Like guys, that have their own uncertainty about whether
They're gonna start themselves. So it's like at that price like
give me the up, give me the upside guy like if I'm not sure
they're going to start who's more likely to start in week 17
just week 17, who's more likely to start Anthony Richardson or
Trey Lance Lance, that's it. Richardson.
I think it's urgent sin but we but you're, I know, you're a
pretty guys. Everyone everyone has has, has
abandoned our boy, you know, it's like it's like you face a
yeah living including his head coach this video going around
today of the Seinfeld. Like when you ask someone about
their relationship, the fight the higher up on your head, they
touch and and Blanche literally. His hand is on top of his head.
But I actually think this is, this is the ultimate bailout
scenario for Lance. I know Lance is not on our board
here, but this is the, the absolute ultimate bail out for
him because they still, it's March 3rd.
They still have not done this surgery on Brock pretty because
the swelling is so bad. And I've done some reading
because obviously, I'm very invested in this Trail.
An scenario as an owner of him in a lot of fifty dollar Dynasty
leagues and I think I think he's going to get bailed out because
I think what's going to happen is they're going to be
inflation's. The inflammation is going to go
down and they're going to go in there and do the surgery and
they're going to be like, we just got to give this dude full
Tommy John because right now all the surgeons.
I mean, this is very inside baseball.
But all the surgeons are basically like there's this
hybrid procedure that they've developed for football players
because it doesn't need to be as extensive because they don't
need to be 100% Max effort. The way a baseball pitcher needs
to be, so there's like a slightly different way they can
do. Do it for football players to
get them back up to speed faster.
But if it's like all the weight or the damage is worse than they
thought, they're just going to do regular Tommy John regular
Tommy John, it, see you later kid.
You're out. You're out for a year minimum
and even then pretty still going to kind of be behind because
it's March the season starts in under 200 days.
He's not going to be ready for training camp.
Lance is going to get all the first team reps and of course.
Yeah. Of course Garoppolo garoppolo's
gone right. Great Shanahan.
A Gruffalo said at, there's no more, there's not a reunions,
there's not another one year deal, he's out because Jimmy
actually has a chance to make some real money.
This offseason right? So I just I just think that's
fair and and I'm betting on Lance, right?
I'm saying Purdy maybe is ready and week for but I'm saying the
49ers are 4 and 0 and Lance has been playing well up into that
point basically. Well I was I've been kind of
fucking Lance here, but I was talking to Eric by for who
obviously did not like my father Thud he was saying, why don't
you pair Lance and Richardson the, you know, because then
you're kind of and I'm a kind of like that.
I like the idea of like you get your Russian quarterback, who's
got a little uncertainty at the end of the season?
Maybe maybe, you know, not as much as I'm saying, especially
pretty steamy out for sure, but a little uncertainty and then
you get the guy who the whole play is week. 17 also rushing
quarterback archetype and then maybe you hit the nuts and you
get both live for for Spike weeks in week 17.
That's the that's the best argument for it is that you
could have You could have to got you could, you could draft two,
quarterbacks who rush for 1,600 yards combined or whatever?
Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
And the chat Target Hogs as pretty as a waste of a pic even
around 20, I'm actually kind of onboard with this even though I
have been property in the past. Like, I think if we get good
news on pretty self. I think we'll like kind of know
like somewhat this offseason if he has a chance of playing this
year and I mean we should we should literally no within days.
Yeah. You know, if he has a chance.
So yeah. Maybe if we got good news I'm
okay taking him right now. It doesn't seem worth it.
I guess my thing is like okay that we get the bad news for
pretty he's basically out for the year.
The 49ers are going to be in the market for like the baker
Stidham. Minshew Brissette tier of
Veteran, quarterbacks, I think for sure.
Yeah. And I still think there's RIT
like, man, it was one game. It was a monsoon, but Lance was
so bad against the Bears week one, that people were already
talking about. Hey, Jimmy like these A lot of
talk about that because it rained too hard Sam.
Yeah, I'm sorry. Hard, you can't you can't
evaluate people anymore and I love Christmas.
Tree, lights is still 22 years old.
He still 22 and he's played like two games in the last seven
years or something. Don't don't fact-check me on
that, but it's the last, it's the last four years.
He's played, he's played three, he's played three and a half
games. If you count his college, put
together an exhibition game for him in the code, Lance Lance
gets been abroad for Baker, Mayfield and week 11, I am One
of the best Victory laughs of all time on Twitter.
I mean, it's very, it's very possible.
Where does Baker, where's Baker? Go in these?
Oh God. No, I don't think he gets
drafted, he Bakery. Baker's bake Baker's.
Starting a minimum of six games for maybe three different teams
next year. Yeah, good luck with that.
All right, I think, I think the people are probably sick of
Trail ancestral and Skyler, let's, let's talk Rashid
Shaheed. He's another Riser up 12 picks
to pick 166 now on Underdog. So one thing I want to note, we
should heed that is interesting. He has a third highest yards per
route run of any rookie wide receiver sets. 2013 only behind
Justin Jefferson and Odell Beckham.
Obviously, it's a small sample, but I think that type of profile
like I think people are starting to come around to how efficient
he was his rookie year and that's what Kind of driving him
up, but I'll give it to Ukraine. What do you think of Shaheed at
this price? I know you've sort of dug deeper
into some of the first read data that that makes a little
skeptical if she did so maybe break down that case for him
there. Yeah, I was looking at First
Street data this past year and one of the things that was
interesting is like generally you want got because like, if
you're absolutely dominating in terms of getting first reads,
you might see a first-rate Target on like 25. 5% of your
routes but like the the most elite wide receivers in the
league. They're going to have a target
for outrun of at least that and maybe more like 28% 29%.
So what that tells you is that it's not just like that.
There are the first read on every play.
It's not essentially just that, you know, the play calling is
designed to get them, the ball, they're also getting open.
They have a connection with their quarterback on Scrambled
drills or second reads because they're they're getting open
consistently. What so, therefore you want guys
who are over performing, what you would expect is based on how
many first streets are getting. However, what I was looking at
is if you're not getting many first reads at all, and all your
production is coming through like basically not first read
targets and your kind of a more of a and you're not maybe seeing
the field as much in the first place.
That can be like kind of your classic flash in the pan type
wide receiver and that's where she he falls.
He only has 13 percent First read Target rate.
Not not good. That's like what DeSean Jackson
has had over the last couple of years.
You know. Kind of a classic, like, just
kind of a pure more of like, it just a deep breath like you, you
know, like we kind of know. He is that said, I haven't had a
problem with him at ADP, you know, because there's a chance
that he is flashing, serious talent, that will make the
offense shift the way that they're calling plays, and
getting this guy, the ball a little bit more.
So I think you just I want to be careful as he now.
You're seeing, he's a riser, a little bit you know maybe just
be a bit careful about chasing them up the board but I mean a
lot of guys who people didn't think we're going to be anything
like of course they're going to have to over perform relative to
what the coaches are calling for them because they the coaches
don't you know, they're behind the curve on realizing that this
guy's a real talent. So I just think he's got like a
very low floor but also does have some ceiling.
So I don't mind where it's going.
It seems like in a pretty appropriate price especially
because of the changing landscape of like though.
You know, the Avalanche right? Like in terms of once you've
already been buried by the Avalanche University G, it is
not, you know, a bad st. Bernard with the thing of
whiskey, hanging around its neck.
I guess my concern would be twofold, which the first would
be was she he'd just being used last year, because the situation
was so desperate in New Orleans, It's like everyone's heard.
Everyone's bad Jarvis. Landry is useless.
Michael Thomas is useless. Alvin Kamara.
Can't get any first downs. Like, you know, Andy Dalton's,
playing terrible and Jamie says a fractured back and, you know,
we're having to use taysom as an actual tight end because we're
just simply running out of bodies.
That that would be a concern. Like, I believe that she, he'd
owns the skill set of, you know, big plays, like, he can make
stuff happen. He's exciting.
But like, I also believe that like, Dexter McCluster Own that
skill set to and he did a couple of exciting things, the NFL and
his team's. When you I believe that will
cool Hardman owns that skill set and he's like done nothing to be
useful for Fantasy. So and probably the largest
concern is I just think the Saints are going to be bad.
Like I just think they're going to be pretty bad on offense.
So it's like how are you how are you correlating him?
Are you drafting like what scarcely one way to correlate
them, you draft taysom Hill who's kind of your back step at
tight end right now? Why do they go?
Let's taste. What's, what is taste?
Is he tight end only? Yeah, he's tied.
An eligible again. Oh my, well, I mean, that's
what, that's what. That's what he's listed at.
He had more to, I believe he had more now, that's how I was going
to say, add more targets and pass attempts last year by
don't. There was a, I think there was a
taysom hill to Refugee he'd like 60-yard touchdown, pass their
website. That is.
That is correct, guys. It's right there.
It's right in front of us. All right.
Yeah, you gotta take. Take some, I have 14.
Hi. Hello.
Not is that okay? I thought you guys were going to
tell me. He was like around ten thick,
we're doing that. We're running the taste
something back again. He's pick 144.
So I guess end of the 12th round.
I'm fully in. I'm fully in on taste them and
it's a position that completely dries up outside of the rookies.
You know your keys go. It's like do you want to take
some Hill or Gerald Everett who probably doesn't have A Team
Gerald Everett's only going like 20 picks after so I don't know.
And I not is a bit I have correlated taysom Hill and Salah
by several times. I think tried so hard to avoid
talking about Taste of melon, the show, I didn't realize her,
she cheated was a gate. Well, because also is it don't
shouldn't we put Jameson the same category of a guy's.
Probably gonna be on a different team next year.
Like he's going to be one of these better.
Yeah, I think it tells because the the Saints are going to sign
Derek Carr and that's going to be too much money for them at
quarterback, Andy Dalton, the probably on a different team to,
so taste them will probably be back to being the backup
quarterback. Yeah, it is and they can't get
rid of them. They have to pay him so much
money and there's so much man. Yeah, Jamis is a tricky one
because he only gets if they cut out and it's 11 million dead
money and only 4 million in cap saving.
So I would kind of bet he's back.
There's at least the backup doesn't Jamis.
Want to start though. Like just like James is going to
look at Kyle Trask starting somewhere or Desmond Ritter
starting somewhere and be like, come on dude.
It's a real shame that Kyle Trask is starting for the
Buccaneers her. Think the only team who wouldn't
bring in Jamis, maybe they would though on Maybe they would you
benefit? Yeah, maybe a team would trade
for him, but because Aryans Aryans is gone.
It's the, I think it was a, it was an Aryans Jamis personality
type thing. Yeah.
I guess left, which is gone too. So maybe although area is
Aaron's gone because he seems to be running the team.
He's always given quote, seems like wants Brady retired Aryans
like came back out of his shadow.
Yeah, started being more visible again.
Yeah, I don't know but overall what He died.
I kind of agree that I'm monitoring if he continues to
rise. I start to get a little worried
but I just call us he's still again like without knowing the
landing spots for a lot of these rookies and like a lot of free
agent question marks like Shaheed at 166.
You're picking him over two guys that are basically, there's no
opportunity cost of that. Range of the draft, really?
It's super flat. So I think it's totally fine.
I got we should talk about here. Attempted redacted, from the
chart but sky, Moore has been a riser for a top tenderizer, for
the second week in a row. He's up, nine spots.
Now to pick 145, overall, Davis as the resident Chiefs fan, what
do you think of this price for Sky more?
I know there's sort of a ton of flocks and Casey's past core
right now. It's hard to purchases but this
is mental illness. I mean II, get it, I get it.
It's like so like Juju is probably not going to be on the
team. Mmmmm Raju will probably be
playing for someone else. Hardman probably is going to be
playing for someone else. It's like, it's like very much
out there in the water that this is a horrible wide receiver
reagent class. So anyone within like, Jacoby &
Meyers might get a hundred million dollar contract this
offseason, he really might. Yeah.
At that's like kind of what we're looking at.
And Hardman, I think even more than Smith Schuster.
And honestly, even more than Myers, he can his agent.
Can, at least, say I own one thing that no one else on.
Roster has, which is I'm just unbelievably fast.
I'm so I'm so much faster than anyone else you have on your
roster and my this is my, why is that Brian windhorse thing?
But the team that basically has a world record like I don't
think anyone else has ever had 137 million dollars of cap space
and went off season. Before that team's general
manager happen, to be the director of player Personnel for
the Kansas City Chiefs. When they drafted McColl
Hardman, I don't know, 100 spots.
Ahead of consensus at the Georgia.
And who is this? What team is this?
There's Chicago Bears, Ryan, okay, holes and they I mean
they've been throwing stuff at the wall at wide receiver.
For the argument against them, signing Hardman is that they
basically already have Hardman and Darnell Mooney.
I don't know how much that matters and of, yeah, but Mooney
is on the last year of his rookie deal, isn't he?
So, I mean, and who knows what else?
He's got, two more years. No, disrespect to dental many,
but I don't think he's a reason to not make any other decisions.
Yeah, and it's just basically a solid receiver spot.
This is the Chiefs are going to get.
The Chiefs. Are going to get priced out of,
honestly. I think they're going to get
priced out of boats. Mr. Schuester and Hardman.
Because I think people are the people are, the teams are just
going to be so hungry, four wide receivers, you know, be.
And to be honest, crane I think this is kind of a shitty wide
receiver class to like I don't know if it's shitty but it don't
think it's very deep. There's like six guys who I
think are pretty good. Yeah yeah I don't think it's
like it's not going to save anything.
It think it's a solid it's an okay class.
I don't think there's a Garret Wilson or in a lob a or a
certainly there Jay. SN might be I think Jason has a
chance to be for sure we got it. He's not he's not running so we
got to see. I know he's not running that's a
little concerning for sure. He's doing everything else
though. He's just not going to run for
some reason. That's see that sometimes more
time to figure out why is not it.
I'm more concerned that he's like sure.
I'll bench press, I'll do the bench press twice if you want.
Yeah like that. That is that is that is sort of
like, I mean I think he's probably fine.
It's just like He's a weird pry. Mean, I know this is not
Prospect chasing but he's sort of a weird Prospect and that
it's really comes down to about four games.
He had like four, absolutely unreal games, stretch of games,
and then he never played again. And most of them were when olave
and, and or Wilson were at his biggest games were win, both of
them are one of them was out, not they should take that away
from him like he put up 300 yards but neither of those.
Yeah, I mean, come on. So I think like crazy, crazy
impressive, you know, and well, yes, it's a true, Santa true
sophomore, when he did that back to more of those, a Davis was
your point that with all those guys leaving, that makes you
more excited about sky. Like I mean, no, not excited.
My point. My point is that I get, I get
whatever Market is, I get with the market.
It seeing my issue is that I just think he might not be good.
Like we're like, I just, it definitely might not be good.
But if we knew he was good, he be going like in the 7th round.
Yeah, I think it's like, yeah, he's gonna be the new Hardman,
right? Except for it.
Like I do Hartman. Yeah, he's the new heart.
That that's exactly who he is. But I mean, you know, Tony's
going at pick 87, so I don't hate Sky more at pick 145, like
that's, I mean, I mean, I'm not like, Tony like, That's that's a
pretty big opportunity cost of their to take Tony who also has
not been able to show that he's going to get on the field for a
full-time role. Yeah like you would a hand if
you were to handicap Tony versus Sky, more fantasy points.
Next year, you would not make it a very big gap.
Yeah. Yeah.
The Gap in ATP is bigger than the Gap.
You would make. Yeah.
But if you were gonna make it like, which odds of having like
a relevant fantasy season that I think you do make it a big gap.
Like I think there's lots of scenarios where they both.
Both suck and more. Just is better than Tony because
Tony like retires to pursue his rap career after me or
something. But that's true.
That is one way that's that more wins.
Is that he is? Yeah.
The thing is like, I don't know, at least when Tony's on the
field, he looks really good. I'm not, he does look really
good with a lot about Sky. I don't think we can say that
about the the exact opposite is true if they keep, they would
run that stupid jet Suite. Play with sky.
And every time every time I'm the angle would be there and he
would never take it, he would just run in he would immediately
run into a linebacker and it was the most frustrating.
Yeah. But but he strategically lines
up wrong to get TouchDown. So you got to give him that, you
got here. Amazing.
How amazing is that? Sorry that he basically swapped
places with Tony to get a touchdown in the Super Bowl and
then we're like what the hell like I guess we gotta run the
play. Is that, is that Sky?
I don't want to throw it to him. I don't think he can, I don't
think he can cut and then cut again.
Like if you did sort of analysis of rookie wide receivers the
past 10 years and if you just look at percentile ranks for
Sky, once you filter for guys, that played at least six games
and ran at least 180 route. So this filters out like the
guys, they don't play at all. Sky was 28%, I'll in yards per
game, 20th percentile of PPR points for game. 51 percentile
in yards, for outrun. So, okay, and the one bright
spot is you 78% Island targets for Route run.
So if you're going to make the bull case for him, it's that
when he was on the field he was being targeted at like a decent
but certainly not like Elite rate by nine percent first
three, targets per route. So it's all kind of like glad
you're he just, you're happy. He was out there, but they
clearly weren't looking for him. So the story of they weren't
even playing this guy is extended to.
They also weren't calling plays to get him involved even though
he was started in high rate which Maybe speaks to his
ability to kind of find a soft spot in the zone or whatever.
But I would say this is about where you want to probably if
this is what he if this is what he costs in June and July, like,
load me up. I'm not gonna be able to help
myself, okay. Yeah.
I think this is fine but like I would be as someone who has
previously spiked his ATP in the past.
I would say if he gets kind of anywhere near he was last year.
It's it's not maybe that I wouldn't take any but I would
be, you know, I would be cautious with that, for sure.
Yeah, I'm I'm okay with taking him now because I think like
you're probably right Davis that like the Chiefs don't make the
Splashy wide receiver move in the free agent Market.
That people are kind of expecting another just not we're
gonna it's gonna be a trade laughter.
Yeah but I think it's not going to be someone super exciting.
So I think Sky will rise a little bit because like you're
probably going to have to project him for something
because they're wide. Receiver room, will probably
look pretty wide open by the start of next year.
Yeah singles Nguyen value like that would be a strong argument
to draft him now, right? Yeah.
But I'm like I'm saying that but I don't want like I'm not
chasing him much higher than this right now.
I don't know, I'm okay. What if price?
But if this limit 120 I'm out. I'm out for Keenan.
Allen or Keenan? Allen gets cut by the Chargers,
to save some money and he ends up being a chief.
That would crushed guy. I mean Skies got to be in the
slot. Yeah, that that's the.
That's the Chiefs fan. That's the drumbeat right now.
The thing is you don't even the thing with Skies.
Like you just need like Justin Watson to be re-signed and
that's terrible for his but like no that's a name that doesn't
matter because he's an Emmy, Justin Watson's and outside deep
threat. Dude, I also had a lot more
snaps and sky this year, I know, but they basically, you play
different positions, I thought, okay, that's fair, but I'm
saying, like, that's the let like the Equivalent of Justin
Watson. That's a slot receiver.
Could be ahead of Skype more for sure saying like yeah yeah.
Yeah. I mean if they resign Juju you
know that's he's done. So yeah I don't I don't I don't
think that's happening. I just I just it feels like it
feels like Juju was so bad. Honestly it down the stretch and
I think he showed enough to get a multi-year contract.
And I don't think the Chiefs want to give him a multi-year
contract. It sounds like, why they They
didn't get him last year and he went back to Pittsburgh was
again. Kansas City didn't want to give
him a multi-year contract because I think they're, they
want to keep their options open, right?
Because Kelsey is, it could be any day.
Kelsey is not going to be good anymore and then it's going to
be time for them to really do something aggressive.
I'm surprised the, the fan fiction for the Chiefs isn't
that they trade cheaply for DeAndre Hopkins.
He makes a lot of money and it's not a one-year deal.
It's like it's like he's going to be 32 and I think his deal
runs for three more seasons maybe with one.
Year that you can get out, but it basically becomes like, why
would we trade for DeAndre Hopkins and we simply could have
just kept every kill. Yeah, that's the thing.
I think it makes no sense like, from their team, building
philosophy and be so inconsistent to trade Tyreke and
bringing. Because I think they Hopkins,
you can see skill sets overlap. I think a decent bit too, right?
They do. But that's almost appealing
because Kelsey's getting so up there in age and you have you
have Hopkins for a couple years. I don't know.
It's a fan fiction story but I think the reason for it would be
you have to pay way last Or Hopkins than the Dolphins page
share for help. Yeah.
You got all this extra picks tape take guys like Sky more,
right, guys? You can burn extra pixels.
All right, let's talk. Let's talk to Sean Whyte.
That's enough Sky more talk. He is a riser pretty obvious.
Why Leonard? Fournette got released.
I think that was maybe kind of already baked into their prices
that format was unlikely to return to the box, but Rashad
White NOW broke into the top 100 ATP at pick 98 curious, crane.
What do you think of Richard, white as someone who was really
in on him as a prospect last year and we're hammering him?
Are you, are you back on their shot wide train at this price or
what are you thinking? I think he's solid here, you
know, you're the issue with Rashad white is that he was
really bad as a rusher as a rookie.
And so I think that for net like for net being there wasn't
necessarily like that bad because you're kind of like
they're going to probably Laughs somebody now and they'll
probably drop somebody cheaply. But there's lots of guys who I
think are pretty interesting as fourth and fifth round picks in
this class. So it's not.
And there's also lots of guys in this class who look like kind of
one, a backs that would pair nicely with Rashad white.
It's kind of a receiving complement.
What is going to say lots of guys who are?
Like, I don't know if he'll ever have 120 carries in the season,
but I'm pretty interested to see what he can do is a pass
catching Style guy. Well, there's guys like that
like Spears. But there's also guys that are
kind of the flip like tank about Yeah.
You know like dudes like that like charbonnet who.
Yeah I was gonna say shark charbonnet is like the most
1985. He would have been like a
first-round pick then, you know. Yeah, totally.
So there's yeah, there's guys who are like lots of guys who
were. I mean outside of like Bijan,
right? No one's like complete in that
way. Even Jamar Gibbs.
I like a lot is more kind of tilted towards receiving but if
you can bring in a guy who's going to be more of a early down
hammer and there's lots to choose from then Richard White's
going. Ooh look mostly you know like a
rotational kind of receiving specialist type of dude and he
was pouring off as a rusher that I don't know that he would like
be able to Cobble together, a kind of a chimera type of role.
He might be just not seeing a ton of snaps you know maybe he's
like a true committee back and so that being I think a fairly
likely outcome even with for not gone.
I think he belongs in kind of that.
You know, ninth tenth round range, if he's moving up into
you. No, the the seventh or the
eighth, you know what? Vibe, you know, a Vibe.
I get here. I get big Zach Moss.
Devon Singletary, Vibes out of Rashad Rashad white and then
whoever else whoever ends up being the grinder that he splits
work with the issue, being the touchdowns aren't stolen by Josh
Allen touchdowns just don't exist.
They don't exist in the first because I'll Trask is your
quarterback because like there's a very real they're going
anywhere so bad. like maybe maybe the Buccaneers say we
don't want to be bad and and you know let's bring in I don't know
you know bring Jamis back bring Derek Carr and bring Jimmy
Garoppolo and whoever and we keep God wanted Evans and we do
one more run with these old guys that's good for Rashad white but
would be bad would be we got Kyle Trask and Tanner Mikey you
know Tanner Mickey is this year's Bailey's a pea or
whatever and then we have You know, it's Russell gauge.
Scotty Miller, you know, that's great, Mike Evans.
Yeah, yeah, Mike Evans, Mike Evans is a cowboy Chris.
God when is Achieve. That's the one that's really
interesting. Oh man, it's got into the chief.
That's my mental fanfiction, is Godin ends.
Up being is God, what ends up being a chief?
Like, that is just a scenario where, you know, he just sends
remember that year three years ago when the, the Dolphins were
awful and it was like kayln belong.
And yeah. It's like it's it was that was
the year before Gaskin. Right?
Was here before they used? Yes, the year.
But the year before gasket just, it was just, it was just bad.
And like that's the Vibes like it here, where it's like, sure,
maybe he does grind out, 220 touches, but he gets you like a
spike week over that time frame. I mean, what Singletary, the the
copy made of Singletary Moss Singletary was one of the bigger
hits that year, you know. So I think if you can get them
in kind of the very end of the single Digits like the round
nine ten area then I think it's a bet worth making.
It's just that if the market decides white is going to, this
is going to be whites backfield or he's gonna be the clear one,
a to whoever they bring in. Then I think you're you're
definitely taking on some downside risk.
Yeah, I agree with that and I don't know, I'm pretty bearish
on like the talent from what we saw last year with a shroud way.
Like I think everyone almost unanimously unanimously agree.
Is that Lenny is like Dustin was terrible but like it's actually
kind of hard to find stats. That Rashad white was better
than Lenny any and worst PFF. Passing a receiving grades get
worse. PFF rushing grades hit lower
yards for Route Ron than Lenny. Basically, the only thing that
he seemed to be better and was like pass blocking.
So what said I was to be Lenny's calling card, right?
Yeah, so like, you know you look at his receiving grade on PFF
amongst running backs and Rashad.
Dwight was ninth out of 60 backs which looks pretty good.
Yeah so that's that's why that's a bit unfair to say oh he's
worse than Lenny. Therefore he sucked like he was
9 W. Is the point I'm making is that
it looks bad. When you see Lenny at 5th
because I'm thinking like and I haven't done the analysis of
this. Like do Tom Brady running backs.
Just like consistently get good receiving.
Yes. Yes that's like that.
That wouldn't shock me. So I'm saying like I think there
is some of that PFF grades where they try to strip out the team
element but I think some of that is not graded he rated.
Okay. And above average in ESPN's
receiving score for running backs, his yards per hour on
were behind Lenny, but they were good.
So as a receiver I think he kind of he you know he wasn't
electric but he was kind of the mostly delivered on the promise
that he would be, you know, carve out that kind of role at
the NFL. And I feel confident they'll
have that role as a sophomore. Now that when he's gone, But
it's the to me, it's the rushing numbers which were really poor
and yet, do you want that? I don't know.
Like again, like people also will look at this the raw stats
and I'll see. Whoa like if you take Leonard
fournette targets and give white half of those and he's gonna get
like 90 catches. It's like Tampa Bay had the most
pass attempts in like per game by a lot.
I think it was like 45 per game that is going to regress like
very heavily as is the percentage of those attempts
that are going to go to running backs.
Like Tom Brady has historically just propped up running backs in
the passing game so like I don't know.
I'm like if they if it looks like he's the clear one in this
offense I'm okay with with this price in, okay, with it getting
a little bit higher but I think I'm actually kind of like mostly
fading. I'm here because I think people
will start to project out the box and it's going to look
really ugly and I think they are likely to bring in someone else
here at running back that will make this a committee.
So what are the chances that they have a legit quarterbacks
if it's Trask? I mean it's just it's there.
You're able to write off this whole often so I think with Ask.
There's got to be a semi reasonable chance that they get
a veteran quarterback. There are there are almost more
quarterbacks than teams available this upcoming year.
Yeah. Yeah.
I mean I haven't heard anything linking like car or Rogers to
them. So that means they're in like
the Garoppolo Brissette Stidham and shoes.
I would not mind Garoppolo if I have her shot.
Well Grappa Garoppolo. I mean Gruffalo to me actually
feels like the Colts guy. Now that now that I've been
thinking about this for an hour Garoppolo Ah, feels like if they
don't get car, probably, you're right.
So, once again, we'll stop the quarterback overall like,
they'll take it, they'll take Anthony Richardson, they'll be
11 and 6 and and be the 7 seed in the AFC and then we'll just a
little never hear from him. I'll never hear from Anthony,
Richardson, slight all my best ball teams on fire.
Once again, from Jimmy Garoppolo great.
Yeah. God, I mean, that's that's
beautiful. That's what I want.
I, I don't, I, I want Trey Lance to play Because, as of right
now, I don't think anyone gets to claim a victory on trail, and
by the way, I don't think the people who thought he sucked
always get to take a victory. And I don't think the people
like me who were like, you got to just give this kid a season
like I and I think he's good. Like I don't get that.
It's, there's no resolution, right?
There's no resolution. There's also what?
No one. No one's throwing this out there
yet. What if the Packers decide?
Okay, we'll trade Rogers, but we don't want to suck.
We don't think we've we get this.
Watch, Jordan love every single day.
He's terrible. What widened, the pack, why
aren't the Packers in the market for a veteran quarterback for
less than Rogers would cost them?
I don't know. It's a good question.
I mean I would be because their roster is other, they have no
pass catchers, but their offensive line and their
defense, they are. It's like, it's like all
expensive, right? Yeah, I don't know why they
have. I think it's just like, I think
the the GM wants to be right that Jordan love was a
reasonable quick. What's gonna?
It's gonna at least get a chance to show that.
That's true. Like I think they, I think I've
seen enough positive buzz on love, like in practice and how
they view them that they. I think they're at least gonna
like, give him a chance and not bring in some veteran that
really threatens his ability to Star.
That's just me like postulate a, they bring in Carson, they bring
they bring in Carson Wentz as the break glass in case.
Case of emergency, that's the worse type of weather going to
be like type of emergency. We need Carson wants, holy shit.
I mean, you guys think I'm joking, but Carson Wentz is
going to start six games for some team.
This year. You're probably right.
Probably go to the Saints and start there.
Yeah, speaking of just discussing names, like Carson.
Once this chart here, looking at the largest ATP fallers of the
last week is just absolutely disgusting names that nobody
wants to talk about in March like Zach ertz.
Hayden Hurst. Why were Zach ertz and Hayden
hurts ever going? Well that's that's the thing I
did a show with Liam yesterday and he informed me that people
were taking Zach ertz. I'm like this is a 33 year old
34 year old guy, coming off a torn ACL like enough, like who's
quarterback is coming off a torn ACL, who just drafted a tight
end to replace him. Who will soon replace him like?
I can't why are you taking him at all?
Why are we drafting him? There's no reason, there's no
reason for it. I mean, like how these rankings
actually work not to get too into the weeds, but I imagine
someone to Underdog before, there's like a teepee, just has
to, like, put in their rankings and that's the original ADP.
So, everything's anchored off that.
And like, I don't blame them too much because like, if I put
together a rankings of one through 250, like I'm gonna put
some dog shit value in there that shouldn't be drafted.
Like you can't get, you can't get a hold of the fence, but
it's correct. Yes, on something.
I would have put pretty like one 110 or something.
I would, ya know, we know. But anyways, I think that's what
happened. Just the Earth's default rank
was just just egregious. No, no shots of whoever did that
an underdog? We love you.
Anyways, let's, let's not talk about Zach ertz.
It's not even worth it. One guy did want to talk through
here was Chase Brown. Am I right about that?
Is that it's the adjacent running back Chase Brown.
He's fallen two weeks in a row. Now, to pick 233, we don't need
to, like, have a huge discussion about him, but I'm just curious.
Like, I don't think there's any reason for it, is that just
another thing, where the default ranking on him was off or like,
are we? There's just no business.
No, there's no buzz on him. A lot of these other guys are,
there's a lot of these other guys are getting buzzed.
Like like what is what is Deuce? Vaughn's ATP.
He's getting, he's getting he's getting Buzz right now.
All the where are you at on him Davis because I could not could
not love. But yeah, could not love him
anymore. It's like it his son 76 pounds.
This is the thing. It only with a guy like that.
I mean, you know, this is well as I do.
It only takes one coach to see something in him, right?
If you like, I want to play it now.
If he becomes a guy, he's like okay he's a fifth round pick,
you know, kind of tells us pads, the biggest issue with him and I
think this is what's probably going to keep him from ever
being a guy. Why we can use in fantasy,
consistently is that he's so small that he is just going to
get blown. Yeah, pass blocking.
Is he just? He's just not going to be a and
and he didn't get he didn't do a ton of pass blocking either in
college because case they just ran so much and they didn't
really have like a seven step drop back offense, but he's
going to be a guy. I take in the third round of
every rookie draft. Pretty much like I just I think
he looks at alarm. He's fun.
He looks like he looks it's a little bit different than what
3: 1 head but what had its we look what had interesting.
Dude. He makes people Miss from like
10 yards away where I'm like convinced that the whatever,
Mystical Force numbers. People are charting our like
under rating him because of like that, you can't count that as a
missed tackle. When he'd like a guy, ten yards
away, falls down. But it is we had 150 yards and a
touchdown against Alabama and it's like, he's legit, he's he
looks awesome. Dude, if he weighs like 181, I'm
seriously dressed. Well, Well, he will be same
reason. Devon a Shane is going to smoke
his 40 time. It's like, this is the only
thing that matters for your livelihood.
If Devon if Shane comes in and runs a 435, he needs to fire
everyone in his life, like he's needs to be like, my trainer, my
agent will let me down because it's like, he's, that's his
whole ability in his life to make money, well, hang on
because this is, this is a, you're actually cratering his
stock right now because I thought it was a chain such a
better name than a shame. It could be, I don't know.
Okay, okay. Yeah.
Don't just come there. Don't, I'm not if it's a shit,
I'm not. Obviously, I have a lot of, I
have a lot of them and I'm, you're actually making me
nervous this names a shame because we'll just, it just
looks friend. It just looks French to me.
And that's how you would say it. If it was fortunate, she house
again, actually back in if it's osterneck come to that, I think,
I think that should be our bit for the rest of the year.
Even if it is something else, which it should be us.
Devon, Austin a guess you guys in on option there, bro.
Well, I mean, yeah. I mean, another interesting name
here, for me, is as a result of how bad the wide receiver free
agency classes. Matt Collins is going to get
those A Jones contract of this last year where people are,
like, what the hell say Jones was a you like say Jones was not
relevant, did not matter in the world of fantasy football until
last season. But because teams teams now, no,
it's Not enough to have one Elite wide receiver, it's not
enough to have two really good wide receivers.
If we don't have Justin Jefferson, or Jamar Chase or
that's it really like we got to have three good guys out there
it's not enough that too and you know the years of like getting
by with a Demarcus Robinson or Justin Watson you know it's like
teams don't really want to be doing that anymore and Hollins I
think showed enough last year to make himself some money.
I think this looks like a Who's there?
I mean, every year, there's a guy who goes in the eighteenth
round. We're like wait, this dude ended
up having well but are you interested?
So your instant taking Hollins. Now like with the hope that that
happens because there's other guys like DJ shark Darius
Layton, there's like lots of dudes who I am every coach that
Slayton has ends up Horry. I think Corey Davis is not at
all tonight, big cut candidate. I don't think he's, he's a free
agent but now he's not a free agent but very likely to get
caught, I think. Yeah. yeah, not very likely but
somewhat likely Yeah. Now I think that's I don't know.
I've had way worse. Last round picks than that
Collins and I've been predicting the the ninth year break out
with them for a long time. So I think I think I mean, I
think it's fine. He's a very last round, pick you
had well, he had a pretty decent number of Spike weeks last year.
I can remember at least one like, very big spike week and
then maybe a couple others where he was playable, I am kind of
thinking that this Frisian wide receiver class is so bad.
That Guys, like, Hollins have a chance, land, and useful spot.
It's actually nuts, though. That, that we would have the NFL
being at an, all-time 11 personnel.
All time pass rate above expected that average up the
targets going down, which is sort of interesting.
But it is just kind of crazy that it worked out this way.
That not like, you know, none of these guys.
And and I guess maybe the larger point is that when teams get
that, dude, they're not changing teams.
They just, you're not letting you're not letting me.
These guys hit the open market. Yeah.
Another yeah.
Another guy want to talk about here who's like maybe the most
fucked fantasy relevant. Got in.
This chart is is Joe Mixon. He's down seven spots.
I think this is a combination of things.
One, there's been some legal stuff that's been brought up
uncertain about how relevant that is.
It seems like those charges got dismissed, but but who knows
also there's just talking to potential cut candidate.
The Bangles need to free up some cap space.
Um, I think it's feasible. They end up moving on for him
and just draft, someone else is cheaper but he is he is dropping
to a point where I am. Like I think I'm gonna like
ultimately I'm not drafting and now and I'm probably going to
see if he falls a bit farther because I think that risk of him
just not being on the Bengals could completely tanked his ATP,
but if you like ends up coming back to the Bangles and we get
those signals and his prices still sticking around like the
70s or 80s like He wasn't great last year, but I would
definitely take in there. I think it smells a little bit
of Josh. A cups last year of just like,
you know, potential three down running back.
Even miles Sanders. Yeah.
Even - yeah, maybe it's not even Jacobs for just like a useful
guy. You can get in the sixth seventh
round probably to down grinder but we know he liked can catch
passes. He's not great at it but you
can. So yeah, I've started to get
interested like if we get news that he'll be back, I agree with
that. Take How likely is it that you
think he will get cut? Because let's say the market,
you know, as pricing and him getting cut and you know, he get
he ends up staying there then I think he's a value where he's
going because if he's definitely with the Bengals, I would
imagine he's more of kind of a classic Dead Zone type of pick,
then we're than this type of price.
What if you're getting him in the sixth round?
And he ends up coming back on the Bangles.
I think I got probably pretty solid win.
I'm not drafting the ton but You're making me, think I should
if we think he's gonna come back, where you guys laying on
that? I don't think he's going to be
back because they can save a lot of money.
I think they can save by not restructuring and, and just
outright cutting him. I think Joe good.
Barry said they could save 11 million, which doesn't doesn't
sound like a lot. Like, I 11 million, like the
Bangles are fucked, caps. It like they are The Bangles are
trying to win a Super Bowl. They're trying to beat the
Chiefs in the All's and they are about to, I think the correct
estimate on what they're going to end up owing per year for
chaseborough. And T is a hundred million
dollars between the three of them who that's about?
That's about 40% of the cap on three guys.
And they all deserve it. And I don't think you can do the
Bangles thing with that. Like, I think you were moved T.
This is obviously is that would be old.
Like you might that. We actually might be more than
because you could go. It's 50, let's say, 54 Borough
and he for case 40, 50 break. Now, your RV at 90.
So, that's over D. So if you are The Bangles for an
office, you go 11 million on Joe Mixon.
His contract, I think has another year on it because I
think they extended him and you go, bro, we got r7's on the
roster. Let's take.
You know, who let's take two guys this year, Simon undrafted
free agent and figure it out and maybe maybe perine will come
back for 2 million instead of 4 million.
Yeah, I think. Like and also if you read the
tea leaves on, I think the general managers Duke Tobin.
So he was asked about both Higgins and mix in this week and
his response to Higgins was like, fuck off, like you're not
getting it are lalit wide receiver.
Like, don't ya. He said he said, you want a wide
receiver, find your own. Yeah.
And then he was asked about Joe Mixon and he's like Nixon is
definitely a running back that's currently on our roster.
Like that one that's what that was more or less an answer about
mixing. So it sounded like if you if you
read into that it sounds like there's a chance.
So ultimately I think like my take on Nixon's, maybe Nuance
like I'm not taking him now. I think he'll continue to fall a
little bit but like I'm watching closely the news on whether
he'll be back. And once he is back, I'm going
to try to buy quickly before he gets back up because like I
think they'll be a bit of Of a lag where he'll still feel like
kind of a gross click to people, just because he, he was so bad
last year was like actually kind of phased out and some of the
playoff games for peer on. So people will be like mix and
just like feels gross and I think they'll be a bit of a by
window that you can jump on later.
That's my eyes. I like that.
I think that's the right plan of attack and the thing with Nixon
is that like while he is I think going to feel gross to select.
I'm not going to enjoy doing it. It's so Much different than it
was last year. I basically had a full faith
position on him and his yeah, which, which could have really
hurt me though, because he did have a weekly ceiling even last
year. I mean, he's part of the Bangles
offense. It, if he is part of the Bangles
offense, again, he's gonna have multiple touchdown ceiling
pretty easily. It's gonna have three touchdown.
He I think he has the highest individual scoring week of any
player and all Fantasy last year.
Right? And like that mean.
Yeah. That's right.
We keep it wins you a ton of money.
So yeah, I do think you want to be in on him once once the
Opportunity cost is much lower, if he's on the bangle scores or
if you think he's going to be, yeah, let's let's jump to
looking at some of the, the team Stax and then we can can maybe
hit on some rookies at the end. I know you guys have been doing
a lot of work and rookie so so I want to give you a chance there.
So for people following along we're now looking at Double
Stack, average atp's, and how that is defined is the average
of the quarterbacks ADP on a team, plus his top to pass,
catchers can Either wide receiver that tie, the ends and
this chart is sorted with the lowest average ATP on the left
side. So these are the most expensive
teams Phillies and see Buffalo Casey all the way to the
cheapest teams on the far right side of England Carolina and
Houston. So on this chart here you know
it's kind of what you would expect not a ton of like massive
things jump out. Out here, but I think there are
a few teams we talked about last week that like Chicago, maybe
Green Bay the Rams that look potentially underpriced.
Yeah, Pat curious. If you, you have any thoughts on
this chart here of teams that that stand out as potentially
under overpriced? And also I don't know what just
happened to Davis, but hopefully he'll be back.
Oh yeah. Hopefully back Tennessee is one
that jumps out to me. It does seem like Tannehill will
be back, that sort of seems to be the way the winds blowing.
And then just in general, I think are these double Stacks.
I guess it's sort of tough to make it Tennessee double stack.
But I like Trail and Burks a lot where he's going.
I think he's a cock. Well, I think a conch was
interesting, right? Kaku is interesting but actually
one of the reasons I like trailing Burke so much, is that
his biggest target competition? Right now is a part-time tight
end who In all that highly thought of to begin with.
So he I mean I thought he looked like he was in the midst of a
breakout you know he suffered that concussion it was on that
touchdown catch and then kind of derailed the rest of the season
and in combination with the Malik Willis stuff.
So he needs them to keep Tannehill and there's some real
downside risk with him, but I like him.
I also am doing stuff. I don't know how your numbers
would capture this but I'm doing stuff where I take DJ more and
you know, then I then I tackle and maybe even Terrace Marshall.
And then I draft like Richardson and Levis or, you know, I get a
couple of the rookie quarterbacks, in a three
quarterback build or just one of them, but maybe in that build, I
also have a called or attacks in.
I liked Niko Collins lot where he's going.
So the numbers probably aren't, how are you even handling the
quarter by you using like, just the guys on the roster?
You're not doing rookies there? I assume.
Yeah. I'm just, this is just like
purely looking at what teams Underdog has, has people
assigned to you. So like, If you see that, that
sort of Band of purple at the top, and the far right side,
like those are all teams were like nobody, there's not a
quarterback on the roster that's being rejected to really play
like Las Vegas, Tampa, Bay, the Jets, the Saints, Etc.
Like no one is drafting that team's quarterback right now.
So, yeah, this chart would not handle that but I'm totally on
board with like I'm doing the same thing to you when I'm
taking the rookie quarterbacks I'm using a tiebreaker at wide
receiver to look at like is this wide receiver on a team that
could be Taking a rookie quarterback.
Like maybe Alec Pierce is a good example of pick 150.
If I have one of the rookie quarterbacks I want Pierce
instead of Sky more because there's a chance, I get that.
I get that stack and I think that's the way to play it right
now because this tournaments going to close before.
We know where those quarterbacks are going at least with like
certainty. So I think you kind of have to
make some make some guesses there.
Yeah, at the rookie card index. So I today, I drafted a team
where I went, I had the Dallas stack is Mention, I had a
Cleveland stack and then also I started the draft with Jonathan
Taylor. I tacked on Alec Pierce is kind
of just a general Cults bet but I also took Anthony Richardson
and that was more about just me really liking Anthony Richardson
and feel like it's probably Last Call on getting him round 14
plus but there's a chance he's on the Colts.
So it's like you know you get that extra little like actually
sort of broke the tie of. Am I going to reach for
Richardson here in the early 14th or should I push him to try
to get em in the With the, the kind of tie break for me.
Was, I could do this little Cults, sort of backdoor thing.
So, I'm I am thinking about that type of stuff a lot.
Yeah, I think it's also, and Davis is back from had a power
outage Davis were now, looking at Double Stack, average atp's,
but I think what's going to be important to keep in mind, here
is like a lot of these teams prices are being suppressed by
just the fact that nobody knows you to stack them with.
Like, I think Carolina is a good example where like, DJ more
Marshall like it, maybe even the running backs probably would be
going higher. Once we have certainty of like
who that quarterback is even if it's like not a great
quarterback, just like some certainty at quarterback drives
the prices up for these teams. As people are like oh wait, the
brain works man. Yeah like now I know how to
stack like Terrace Marshall with.
I can put a name to it. So like I think these teams with
uncertain quarterbacks there's going to be some anchoring
effect later in the year that like, even when once we know
their quarterbacks, their skill position, players are like being
Really suppressed a little bit now.
So I'm kind of like monitoring that a little bit going for I
think the Jets is maybe another one, we're like Elijah more,
he'll probably jump a lot. Just once we have some certainty
over the quarterback of someone's going to want to take
Aaron Rodgers, they're going to want to, you know, stack larger
more with him. So I'm definitely checking that
out, Davis, any teams here for you.
These are sort of ordered on the left hand side from most
expensive to least expensive and it seems here that like jump out
to you is like Too cheap or too expensive.
I mean Arizona is the most interesting one because you are
acknowledging that you're probably not going to have Kyler
for a month, maybe maybe six weeks and he maybe he's not even
giving you the rushing. But we also we all sort of, you
know, we all sort of think that DeAndre Hopkins is probably not
going to be on the team. They're probably entering into a
little bit of a rebuild you know, they fire Cliff.
They bring in the new coach like they're just kind of
reconfiguring things and it feels Feels like, you know
Rondell and I don't, I guess. I'm who else is even going to be
the past Market, you sir? Yes, sir.
Yeah, yeah. Hollywood Rondell McBride's
McBride. Yeah.
I don't know, it just like and maybe they bring, you know,
back, you know because the, you know, was I don't think that
Brandi go back and just, I guess he what he said, it's a cliff.
So what he said was, you know, you know, you know, ruined his
chance of being probably starting running back this year.
In the NFL because like, what's the chances that what Connor is
30 now? Yeah, yeah, so like that.
Yeah, g GG well played to, you know, Benjamin running his mouth
to his coach, but Arizona seems interesting.
Chicago also seems interesting because I think the evolution of
fields is that he is like he has to improve as a passer this
season for them to just continue on, on their development.
I think you should assume a little bit of you know I think
you should assume a little bit of that and and also I mean it
seems like ATP is not buying come at me come at was
committed. Like did he lead tight ends and
snaps played last year like he is out there almost certainly up
there, certainly up there. Yeah, I've never been in on
Commit. I think the outside his rookie
season, I liked him a lot and Dynasty but I've just been
unimpressed with what he's done is a pro.
I think he's a great value right now.
He's definitely going to be a full time student.
Tartar and like there's he's in a Range where it's like the last
of those guys are going off the board or shortly thereafter but
you know even dulcich who I like who goes a little after him.
We don't know that dulcet is not going to be in a rotation.
We can feel very confident that come out won't be.
I mean the coaching staff row, they have the first thing.
The first thing they said was we don't understand why Albert
hasn't been playing all year. He looks pretty good to us.
Oh no. We're doing it again.
Here to your three, your three on Albert.
Yeah, well your to of the dulcet such Alberto debate but are we
but aren't we? I mean like with is Sean Payton.
On what day if you had to set the line, what date is the first
First time, Sean, Payton is going to say, you know, I coach
this guy named Jimmy Graham and Greg goal search.
Let me tell you like, what? Like when's the first from
directly from Sean, Payton, Jimmy Graham.
Greg dulcich comparison going to be made.
How do you think? But what if they all said yeah.
What if those it's gets the who's getting the comparison?
Is it don't it? I mean clearly he must have been
Nathaniel hackett's. Favorite human being like he and
Ian Nathaniel Hackett probably had like Brett.
Did you see that? The greeting that it's on the
ship chasing Clinic hair, the hair look at that after he was,
I mean it was a it was a mortal lock, he was playing him.
I don't have a dog in this fight.
So I'm hoping they draft like, Sam laporta.
So I got the third battle. That is that is the other thing
is that this is supposed to be like the best tight end class
of. Like the last decade I got to
know. Have you guys entered into?
Are you so sick that you know who Thomas Yasmin is?
I don't actually know who Thomas.
He has missed. You know.
Sometimes our craft is know that different from Tyler Croft.
Yeah I was gonna say. Is that are you just
mispronouncing? Tyler, Croft, I'm not
mispronouncing, Tyler Croft. I'm referencing a D2 tight end
who apparently could go date, could go day to people.
Some people like you didn't have to tell me he was a D2 tie-down.
I could tell from his name Tucker crying.
Yes this Yasmin fella is a he was college teammates with
Thomas Kinkade or not. Thomas Kincade, Alton Kincaid,
the the Utah Thailand, right? If I told you he had 14
receptions in Four Seasons in college.
How many of those do you think went for a touchdown 86 damage?
Ha ha ha. Yeah, but like the thing is, is
that he looks like a submarine missile or something.
Once he gets the ball, it's insane.
And he's like, he's gonna get picked.
This is going to be the new door and Dickerson, Ladarius Green.
Jason, Morrow Austin's, Affair and Jenkins type like, you know,
told us so far for all of us this time, it's gonna work this
time. The very sad thing is that, I
think it was actually going to finally work out for Ladarius
Green. And then he had to retire
because he got like, three commit.
Was he the guy? That was like, everyone's like
he's the, he's the new Antonio Gates.
He's coming and so he was in Tonio Gates is back up.
And then after his rookie contract, he went to the
Steelers. And you see the Biltmore, like,
Donald parm or something. He's like really long.
Yeah, that's what. Yeah, basketball player type 5.
There's a lot of the because Antonio Gates career just held
on for so long. There are so many like this is
the next Antonio Gates. Like, they drafted him.
He's gonna be, you know, you can open for a couple we've got.
We've got Donald harm on the roster, who's still waiting to
be that guy? The Darius was kind of he was
like the original. He was like, he was like the
Wrath score guy before before Rascal adore, adore and
Dickerson was before him. If they, they did if they did
Rask or now during Dickerson would break it.
He would be, he would be unable to be 11 attempts.
At 10:49 can I can I wait, can we do one more step before we
move on? Yeah, yeah let's do it.
The Rams. I think the Rams are actually
and I haven't brought myself to draft Allen Robinson and I'm
Only done van Jefferson a couple times, but Alan Roberts.
I just checked their space. There's fanfiction out there
about him getting traded. Just well, that would be the
only way that he is not on the team because they can't cut him
his dead calf exceeds his cap hit so there's no it's by-and-by
like eight million dollars. It's like a 20 spiked a dollar.
Yeah. Over 26 million dollars in debt
cap. This season.
They're stuck with them. You've got Cooper cup.
Only at the very top of draft still.
So, so drafters, you know, clearly aren't all that
concerned about a bounce-back for him specifically, but then
Stafford is pretty cheap. And then, and also in kind of a
range where, you know, there's like starting to be job concerns
or like or late season. Are you actually the starter by
this point type of concerns with some of the quarterback?
I don't have any of those with Stafford.
Plus there's the potential he bounces back after dealing with
that injury last year. And you know very even if look
Isn't there an argument to be made that?
Actually the Rams are probably going to be much better.
Simply if Allen Robinson is not eating up 80% of the snaps and
Van Jefferson and 22 out well or playing instead.
Well yeah I mean that would be that's that's kind of partly why
I haven't drafted Robinson because he's just been so bad.
Maybe it's like kind of drafting Kenny Gala day or something.
Like he might just not be out there despite yeah.
I mean this is the this is the, you know, I'm not going to I'm
not going to call anyone out specifically, but every year
there's basically veteran wide receiver.
Making decent money, whoo. There's some space AJ, Green
pick from our 2021. This is the Kenny guard.
A prashad. Perryman thing, where you look
at an offense. And you go think this offense is
going to be all right? And some of the got to throw the
ball to someone but it can't make any daleth a comeback from
the Crypt. It can't make on Robinson, like
Allen Robinson last year like literally could not generate
separation. He was he was lowest in the
league at generating separation per Target and I don't think
that's going to get better. Getting another year older.
Yeah, no I don't either but he's ATP is 197.
And so I at least like once you get down there he's under
contract. So it's like you could draft a
headband Jefferson's even later he's to 12.
And if you want to go to to he's 239, that is gonna sound.
I would so much rather have 22 at.
Well yeah, so did Banner to do yeah.
But I don't think the ramps Rams are like, I think there's this
Rams hangover just because of how much last year was a shit
show. But like if you look at ought
Super Bowl ads and stuff, like, they're projected to be like a
fringe. Often like this team shouldn't
be this cheap. I don't, I don't think.
Yeah, I don't think well and they they do play in the NFC
where everyone is kind of mediocre.
So that's that's pretty big for them to.
If you look at success rate over the last two seasons including
the playoffs. Patrick Mahomes is first, Josh
Allen is second in Matthew. Stafford is third.
So, even with last season included, you know, just a
reminder that he was quite good in his first season with the
Rams and maybe last year was You know, due to this injury that he
had. So led the league in picks won
the Super Bowl? Yes.
Is there like legit retirement risk with him?
I feel like, I hear that Throne. I think we passed.
I think we pack, we passed it. I think there was there was
like, there was like a week where he was like, you know, I
really need to consider my future.
I would assume that probably part of McVeigh saying I'm
coming back. Was him sitting down with
Stafford and being like, look are we gonna do this or not?
Yeah, I buy that, I think. Yeah, if you take, if you take
cop, I'm taking Stafford. Like, I don't even care. 26 out
of UDP, probably just to make sure I get him at this point.
He said, same, same thing. I think you are 100% correct.
Sam. And I think the other guy you do
that with is as Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins because they're
Spike weeks are going to be ones.
Like literally one to gamble in a bunch of one like Evan there.
There will be no just Jefferson, no Jefferson Jefferson Spike
weeks. Where doesn't bring Kurt and
certainly no Kirk's. Squeaks were Jefferson has not
brought. Well, I guess Hawkinson could
drag Kirk along for one. Maybe is this here is this year?
Nine of TJ Hawkinson in the sixth round it's your 9 of TJ
Hawkinson priced about 12 picks earlier than I want to take him.
Yeah, worst worst Dalton Schultz go right now.
Figure out pick 100 Dalton Schultz currently not doesn't
have a team in probably won't play for the Cowboys.
Don't show these egos drumstick 107 Yeah, yeah.
I mean so that's that's big on Cowboys Twitter right now but
but they're so and what everyone's arguing about
themselves with is is Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot,
are they ready to become the new Blake Darwin, Dalton Schultz
from two years ago or do we need to bring in a one-year Gerald
Everett, you know, just like it in her style.
I hated her. Sure.
Yes. And do we do, we need one year
of a 29 year old who can be a professional.
And draft. Someone in one of the deepest
Titan classes in a while. Thomas Yasmin, Thomas Yasmin, is
is for sure. A Jerry pick just a you show,
you show them, his just bombs Productions, you know, minute 13
of touchdowns gonna be pretty short.
Just Bob's 13. How you feel
do we think just the just bombs guy like, what do we He makes he
whatever, he makes he should make more piece should make
more. I actually, I've been watching
like sick edits and stuff more because the just bombs I think
he's getting them out slower. But like God, I've been missing,
I want more just bombs, you know, I don't know if he's
gotten busier, what? But I haven't been, I've been
watching as much of them this year.
It's their, their integral to my process.
They are they're a huge part of my process.
I absolutely love just bombs Productions.
All right, let's let's move on. Let's wrap this up with a little
talk on on rookies. We've talked about that.
The top guys a lot. I'm curious like you guys have
been deeper in the prospect stuff than I have.
Like, it feels like after I guess maybe booty is where you
draw the line of like the last sort of relevant wide receiver
Prospect. Like nobody is talking about any
of these other guys for sheer ice Cedric, Tillman Mims, Like
from that tear, let our drafters ride.
That's just like completely flat and everyone's just like
guessing like what the fuck do we do with those guys are like
is there someone in there that you're excited about if they
were to get, you know, Day to you know, draft Kappa?
Tank Del if K if tank tail gets drafted in the second round
wheels up for me. Yeah I'm all in.
I mean it's sort of like it's sort of like when the Eagles
took Devon to Smith at 12 they're saying like we don't
give a shit that he ways. 170. Eight pounds, same deal.
Same deal for now. Obviously like Dell is is I
would also say he's like sturdier than the other guy.
You think I'm being that small which is 22.
I mean, he's bigger than that and even like look even to to
you we've laughed so much about like this guy is like literally
gonna die playing a football game but he he was like starting
NFL games for like a month last year, which is like more than
some people thought he was ever going to looks kind of good to
like, I mean, it turns out being fast.
And really agile is like very helpful for playing football.
Yeah, he was also he was he was awesome as a college Prospect so
22. I mean, Yeah, I like that one.
I don't there's no one who really jumps out to me.
I feel like the, like, where I'm sitting with these guys is that
I'm I would love to see, like some Buzz, some bigger Buzz post
combine and like Landing spots and stuff.
Like when I get down in that, that range it's like it really,
really feels like guessing were does at the running back
position. It doesn't as much.
I mean, I know, I am still guessing but I'm like, I can
kind of just see like Andre Miller.
Or whose van or running back u8u.
We just know it's guessing because it's just going to
depend on what team they go to, right?
There's no. It's like ayotte.
There's more chaos at the position.
So like I feel like I've got a clearer path.
Not Assad is going to be hotter. Like, like, we have to decide if
Cedric Tillman, or Xavier hydrogen, or Nathan Deal's, any
good. It does.
Like we don't have to make the decision on is Zach, charbonnet
any good. It's just like, does he get
drafted by a team or two inches? Get them in the game.
And, I guess the thing, like, it's those guys at the wide
receivers aren't good, then they're probably like Seth
Williams, you know, or they just like disappear off the face of
the Earth, where if the running backs aren't good at might not
even matter. Like I agree and Robinson is
very good, you know and I gotta I got a question for you is that
charbonnet a converted linebacker because I hope it's
that sort of that sort of your deal, right?
It's like you look at is kind of my deal.
I'm in on the converted linebackers but you See you
you're in on the converted. Cornerbacks who play wide
receiver as Miko Hardman? Oh yeah.
That to me to me that's actually to me if you think about it
logically it's actually a great side because your coach so fast
you were he saw he saw fast. Whatever would we call them
Harden was on his way to a top 30 wide receiver season this
last year. Actually, if you want to, if you
really want to, if you really want to get out a way, I gotta
was honestly that that the last thing I want to say, real quick
at wide receiver is is also that Washington is just covid is
making all this class. So weird, but Parker Washington
is one of these guys who is making a huge bet on himself as
a young guy. A lot of these guys are fourth
or even fifth year, guys, but Parker Washington is a legit,
Junior. You know, non-registered.
So I think he seems good. You're actually pops a little
bit in my stuff but his is drop position.
I have I have him is like a early day for guy, right now are
really tiny three guys out. They, for early day, three guy
early round for guy, That would be someone or if he starts to
move up NFL boards. I would I'd be pretty excited
about it. Hmm.
Yeah, and again, I should have probably reduce the Charles a
bit more. This is showing like the players
ranking from NFL mock draft database which just aggravates a
ton of mock drafts and big boards and average is it.
So that's where we're getting sort of the the x-axis data
here. But yeah, it just it kind of
drops off a cliff at a certain point.
Tyler Scott is another Guy that I've liked it seems like it's
Twitter Buzz is like higher than what NFL mock draft database
says. Like I've heard people say, oh,
we could be like a surprise second-round pick, but just like
the data of averaging mock drafts, like, doesn't really
reflect that at all. So, I guess he's got a monitor.
If individual Scout seem to be really high on him but not not
popping the data. Let's go to running back here.
Again showing the same data Underdog ATP on the y-axis,
consensus, Big Board ranking here on the x-axis.
Yeah, I think the running back like a teepee stuff is like a
little bit interesting. Like people seem to be kind of
taking leaps with guys, like Sean Tucker.
Roshan Johnson, Ty J. Spears auction a yeah, shut up.
Yeah, I'll see ya shinae. He actually shows up as a little
undervalued on this chart, but my point being is like, the ADP
doesn't really reflect. The the draft cap, projected
draft Capital, which I think is fun.
It's still really early like that stuff.
Can shift a lot, but I think there's some like, Arbitrage,
plays that that pop out here a little bit.
I like, for instance, like Chardonnay and a Shane, they're
pretty close and the consensus Big Board.
Rankings are only like ten spots apart, but you can get it.
A shame like 50 or Russian. A 56 later, then Sharp And so, I
mean ocean is ocean age. Range of outcomes is so much
better and the NFL because if you if he's really as fast as he
like, people are projecting him to be some teams going to fall
in love with them. I call that portion the draft
the French Quarter, that's pretty good.
All I got two big running back takes right now before the
combine one I just need one head coach to get In a meeting with
do spawn and be like, I've I love you and I want to make this
for the next you want that to man, get, let's, let's have that
happen. Your, the next Darren Sproles
music and the other thing is that Roshan Johnson.
This is actually crazy. When you think about it, Roshan
Johnson was so good at pass, blocking and catching passes.
And being on the field on third Downs, that he took these John
Robinson, a say Quan Berkeley. Ezekiel Elliott level of running
back, Prospect off the field. For a team that was trying to
win games, that it's pretty nuts to think about that.
Like at that to me that says, like he seems good.
And at it, he's a converted quarterback.
Love these guys who change positions.
So it would actually, it would actually make sense why he would
be good at understanding that why he would get the pass
protections and be good at pass blocking shit like that.
That isn't that's really interesting.
So he's a guy, I felt a little caught out on where I didn't
really have that much of him and I was looking at some, I was
putting comps together for all the running backs.
Statistical comps and Damien Pierce pops up.
You know like some of these other guys who didn't play a lot
of college for whatever reason just didn't play a ton.
Yeah but like their numbers actually look pretty good on a
per game basis. And so I've been feeling like
man Johnson at this price. Maybe it's like slightly under
or over price relative to his expected draft position.
But he seems like a guy who could have a really good Combine
performance and move way up. He certainly was recruited.
Florida Ohio, State and Oklahoma as a quarterback like he's like
a sick athlete type guy, I think.
Okay. So I I would be betting on the
guys who you think right now are like if you're drafting today
why wouldn't you be drafting? The guys who you think are going
to crush the combine. So he's a he's a prime one
Macintosh or mick. How do you say the guy from
Georgia? Kenny Macintosh.
I think Macintosh, I'm not sure packets are so key. he's
interesting because as a similar type of committee back type of
profile, but his yards per route, run was a lie and the
guys that come up for him or the Alabama backs like Kenyan Drake,
like these dudes who didn't do and ton but then they flashed in
yards per hour on and Kenyan Drake hasn't been a great
receiving back but he's explosive and it's I think the
it's kind of pointing to the fact of like this guy's got
probably more than you would expect and he sort of
interesting I think is like a similar Betsey Johnson where
it's like big-time program didn't play as much as we'd like
but his flash some stuff on a per touch basis or a per hour
basis and Macintosh case. So he's another dude where I
think, you know, I don't know, maybe it's a good combine, maybe
impresses people, he flashed some explosion.
Yeah, it seems like in general these these late running backs.
There's some opportunities for big wins based on Landing
spotters getting drafted higher than we expect whereas for the
wide receivers, yeah, I don't know.
You guys are just getting me a lot more excited about the late
running backs in the late are receivers in this class.
I weirdly feel more jazzed about the guys.
I expect to go on day 3 than the guys I do on day two, like I
gotta wait, yeah, I could just see Josh Downs being fancy, the
Ami Brown like get excited about him and Like literally never
matters. Well.
How how much does he weigh? Because I've seen him in like
the 170s, and that's pretty concerning.
I mean, yeah, it's like these these weights that are out there
like you Google, jail and Hyatt. Hi.
It's like they internet. Will tell me that Bryce.
Young is is 61 200 pounds. Like, wonder what the wait, the
wait to get her telling me. Is that just a 174 pounds?
That's what I'm saying. Is that like, it's like I just
Wait 24 hours before I start going crazy on these.
Wait takes like yeah, if I learn tomorrow that do spawn is had
two months to get ready for this and was only able to get up to
179. I would be like, well, he just
doesn't want to work hard enough to be an NFL running back
basically. Yeah.
That's fair.
Well, I mean, we will by this time next week, we will have all
that combine data on running backs and wide receivers.
So that's gonna be interesting to discuss.
See, I think we'll see a lot of shifts in the rookie ADP after
the combine. People react to that, but spread
it out, spread it out. Yeah.
Like don't don't like go all-in right now in one rookie because
I think there's lots of these guys that look interesting, but
their profiles, are they got holes?
All these guys have holes in their profile, but I think a lot
of guys have enough to where you're like if there's if
there's suddenly draft buzz on this guide, they look really
interesting. So I would just there's a big
bucket of guys. I'd spread it out on in those
rounds. Yeah.
All right. Pat I know you gotta run.
We're trying to close the show. Each week with everyone listing,
their favorite value on Underdog.
So do you have a name for us? Maybe someone we haven't
discussed yet or it could be someone.
We have talked about that. You have really high exposure to
right. Well why don't you let Davis go
first because I don't want to I'm actually worried.
I might snipe them. All right Davis, what are you?
What are you thinking? Favorite Valley.
Right now on Underdog. I have not been, I have not been
grinding these that hard but the the category of guys that feel
the most undervalued to me, are all the boring, The quarterbacks
that we talked about, you know, the I mean it for anywhere from
Derek Carr to Baker, Mayfield who's going like Andre Carson
Wentz? Like, you know, when I brought
up Carson Wentz earlier, you guys like audibly, we're like,
okay, but like art, like there I was right now.
Right now the quarterback Market is that you are you are getting
destroyed paying for certainty. You are paying so much for
certainty and if you just Embrace a little bit of the
ends, I'm pretty confident that if you just really embrace the
uncertainty with these Court, Max.
You'd have really good Advance rate teams and also probably
unique finals teams as well, my guess would be.
So I'm tracking these. You want me to put you down for
Carson Wentz as your favorite Plumbing?
No, do not. Put me, put me down, put me down
for Baker. Mayfield with your last pick and
a 20 round draft. All right, I'm mostly going
dumpster diving. I'm gonna go with C.
Eh. This is why I was worried.
I might snipe Davis Clyde Edwards dealer.
Got him in the 19th round today 1911, today.
I got collider. Brazil are A running back under
contract for the Kansas City. Chiefs are the Chiefs are so
screwed. Money-wise that they can't
really afford to cut a guy on that kind of controlled laser,
so you're right. Controlled fourth is a fourth
year of his rookie deal. They obviously aren't picking up
his fifth year contract clearly, but I don't know, they already
not. However, he's this is last year
in the team is my point, but Jerick McKinnon a free agent.
Once again, they took forever to re-sign him, Ronald Jones was a
healthy scratch all last year. So, I mean, I think CH is
probably Number two back and he's going to have passing down
work. And if they don't bring McKinnon
back, and even if they bring the cannon back, I think, at a 19th
round value, like, you know, he'll score some touchdowns and
stuff, he'll do the occasional thing.
So I think you're actually getting a decent amount of
upside with ch and a guy who we were drafting in like the eighth
round last seventh eighth round last year.
He's still gonna be there. Do you have any like, opium
narratives them? I know last sausage.
It was that he liked Lost 60 pounds like because he Was sick
or something? Yeah.
What's horrible health condition if you suffer from in 2022?
Well, I mean he was out, he was out for like three months for
like three months and somehow we're going to find that he was
like fighting for his life. That isn't what happened.
I have no idea. All right, I'm going to go
slightly less swallows. All right, sorry that I'm very
biased against. I'm very biased against the uh I
think he stinks. So it is one of those things
where if I'm drafting a guy like that I'm like he must be wildly
underpriced. If I'm drafting them that's one
of the the gut check things ideas like the Zach ertz thing
from from last year. Yeah, ever, exactly.
I'll go slightly less gross I'll go.
Elijah Mitchell, pick 136 right now.
It just strikes me as like 30 or so spots.
You low, I think like, even with McCaffrey there, we've seen that
Mitchell has a role in offense and I think will give you some
usable weeks even when the Caffrey is this healthy and he's
just the ultimate, like, contingent bet.
If McCaffrey were to go down. Yeah, I just don't get like, why
would you take AJ? Dylan, 30 picks ahead of Elijah
Mitchell. It doesn't, it doesn't make a
whole lot of sense to me, so Mitchell.
Yeah. Mitchell's my favorite guy in
that range right now. I like him a lot.
Cool. Yeah, we'll be tracking
tracking. These takes over the offseason.
I'll do something fun with them CeCe.
What should our takes are getting clothes, lying closing
line value versus not. So that'll be fun to get.
Clv locks. It gets.
He'll be guaranteed. I think I'm getting clv with ch
in the 19th. I feel good about that.
What's the highest pick? Quite a root cellar, will get
drafted with on Underdog in the entirety of the offseason.
I mean to your point. Probably like the 13th round.
So whatever. We're we're wrote where we're
Row. Joe was going with share Rocha
was going last year. Yeah.
Yeah, it's possible. No probably bring Road, go back,
by the way, I know he was complete.
He complained and wanted to get cut midseason but he probably
enjoyed winning a Super Bowl again.
God, he throws it throw, Joe. Finally breaks out in your to at
the Chiefs would be so sweet. Well year six, right?
It's your sixth pick out for all his career.
Yeah, yeah. Well, he had a pretty nice 2020
and a nice little 2020 there. It takes a while for players,
changing teams, you know, get a copy of the Playbook down.
Alright anyways let's let's shut things down here.
That was a lot of fun guys. We will be back most Fridays
throughout the offseason giving our takes on the ATP movement.
So yeah, a lot of a lot of stuff will change.
Obviously with the draft, the combine coming up should be a
fun. Couple weeks to monitor player
values. But yeah, anything you guys have
going on that you want to plug before we shut things down here.
No, no plugs good. Good sucks.
Alright, sounds good guys. We will see you next week.