Alright guys. So we are back here with another
minisode it. This is the ultimate Cliffhanger
because last time we talked it seemed like we had kind of
settled on a wide receiver. Specifically DeAndre Hopkins or
Devon to Smith but spoiler guys, we did not select either of
them, we did it. And Pete you were out of pocket.
So it came down to me and been over the, like, the last week be
so that the entire clock expire because I was, you told a lot
many, so we didn't feel good about any decisions that we were
going to make. So we kind of like just started
getting a little nuts. I suggested maybe taking Canaria
Stone in the sticks around, so, we were not leaving any options
undiscussed, but I think it kind of came down to, like, we
started to stare down this Leti that we might select a nuke with
Marquis Brown and then not get Kyler.
We just watched Pat, he lost fat, but ya know, he was picking
up. Well we kind of we decided we're
going to go running back for sure.
We settled on nuke for the pic. But then there was this, you
know, we were talking about how we sort of wish we had, the two
picks at the turn so we can make the pics back-to-back because if
we did take nuke that we would really at that point preferred,
I get Kyler in the next round. And so we're kind of gaming out
the the worst case scenarios if we went nuke and then some Buddy
went Kyler over, you know, Mahomes was still sitting there
and then we have both nuke and Marquis we already have Jason
Higgins and we had went up kind of taking neither of their
quarterbacks. It was kind of we take my homes
and QB, it were, you know, and we also have baited we're
talking about taking Lamar but like I learn the more Matt,
we're went. We're like, okay, well, would we
take Borough over my homes or we take an unstacked Mahomes.
The trend fact or stack handling, we have all these
other stack set up so we got around to, all right?
Well if we want Kyle, Iran nuke. About the same chance.
They both make it back. Let's take Tyler first because
the worst case scenario and that outcome was.
If Noob does go still have the Cuyler Marquis and we wind up in
a better spot where we could then take two fonts.
That were telling me a couple of the guys that we were talking
about. We felt like the worst case
scenario going Kyler first put us in a better spot and then and
then you can go. And so, yeah, we're back on the
clock and he's the only receiver who goes as ATP was after or
seventh-round pick really felt like He would probably make it
back. He was about four receivers down
the available receivers to bees did go.
I think a pretty good chance that if we went Hopkins, that
that Jalen hurd's pick. I mean that guy had AJ Brown, so
he's probably stacking there. He takes hurts over Lamar.
He's probably taking the hurts / Kyler, but I think there's a
decent shot that Kyler would a win as well.
Yeah. Because you don't know if maybe
someone skipped quarterback that might have taken Kyler since
he's pretty appealing. But yeah, I think probably like
in retrospect, you know, How do we know nuke went?
Like, we probably would have had a better chance of getting both.
Yes, new. But yeah, I think that thing
because we had talked about on the last minute, so the prospect
of like getting a value at quarterback, Matt, why would we
take a quarterback on the six when we knew we were going to
get value and one of these quarterbacks and the seventh,
but it just like, kept I kept going back to like, yeah, but
we're reaching for anyone. We take that we're reaching like
we didn't want Gibson, we didn't want Elijah Mitchell, which we
had a long conversation about Potentially taking a lot of
Mitchell over chat, but we all were kind of out on that
possibility Goddard was somewhat of a value he went.
So it's like, all right, well, are we yeah, we're getting by in
the seventh but to do that we reaching in a 60s, kind of a
fake value, we might as well take like we prefer getting
Kyler here. And I mean, normally I would
perform homes, but to get Kyler stacked with Marquis Brown,
you're like making that better. That fast start and then P
you're talking about how good the playoff schedule is for
Pilar. I think that's that's pretty
appealing in a zero running back Bill, to be to kind of get the
fast start and potentially have him just like humming during the
playoffs when hopefully the team is at its strongest.
So I think that yeah I'm not with the staff is pretty.
Sweet agree and I'm not like devastated we can get the double
As he has the rushing Equity, you know, there's obviously
clear scenarios where he rushes for three touchdowns over weeks
15 to 17. And then hits Marquis Brown for
some deep stuff. Maybe Hopkins is good too but
having Kyler Marquis works out pretty well as opposed to
somebody who had the double stack, there's that you know
there's ways that can play out that we are in a better shape by
having just the single stack of college adding a lot of Russian
value and I'd so much, rather have Kyler Marquis.
Then nuke Marquis, for sure. Sure.
Yeah, I viewed I viewed Hopkins as like a we kind of were
debating here. I think we knew we kind of had a
luxury pick in this range. If we wanted just knowing that
the quarterback would be there in the seventh and Hopkins was
like a luxury pick for us. But one other thing that I don't
know if we brought up but we're still not priced out of a nice
Kyler double in that Rondell more could still potentially be
a Target. I'm guessing we're going to be
shifting, our Focus to running backs by the time.
Up. But it is like if we end up
taking a running back detour because like there's a value in
the 9th or something. Like I wouldn't rule us out of
getting Rondell with this build. That's a good.
That's a great. Yeah.
Yeah, I mean, I think pepper. It really well, in terms of us
reaching regardless, it's kind of hilarious and I think this
was the hardest part about taking Kyler with that we were
setting up in our earlier minisodes look, we can take
burrow or we can take Lamar because we took Bateman, or we
can take Kyler because we took Marky.
So the last thing we need to worry about it.
Reaching and we're going to get a good quarterback.
But then also, we get to this point where like, okay.
Well, we really do kind of want to take 167.
It's kind of tough because, bro, probably fits the best, but we
would have to make a decision on Pearl before Kyler on the
morrow, obviously, based on ATP. So does broke it all the way
back in the eighth. Very well might, but like, we
would have to make that call now.
And then we lose that optionality.
But like, the last thing that we probably should have been doing
is reaching on a queue, because at least we had the optionality
into the site probably. And yet you get in a spot like
as you said, Where are alternative was going to be a
reached by ATP. Anyway and in our multiple
Alternatives that we're talking about Hopkins, who's ATP is like
less than one ahead of the vantaa Smith or drum Smith might
be right ahead of him. I'm not sure.
And then Tony's like five picks behind that and that's another
guy that we're like, okay, worst-case scenario, Hopkins and
Devante both go we take Tony in the seventh but regardless like
you said we were going to be taking a reach and so it's real.
It was just a really weird feeling to be making this Q be
called a QB reach one. When the whole setup was that we
could get a cube, you Val. Yeah.
Prime it just played out uniquely where we just didn't
really have a better Target with this luxury pick.
As you said I wasn't going to say we could have taken analyzer
Mitchell put in that changes the whole build in terms of how many
receivers you have through extra round.
You know, the eighth round to the ninth round, those types of
things. And so anyway, I kind of like
where we went in the end just because it was a little bit of a
safer maneuver, although probably you want to be trying
to hit as many Homerun drafts as you can in these formats as well
so taking the safe path. May be a mistake in that regard
and I will say, just kind of. Now, looking at this board, I
almost want to even throw out that like, we reached because we
look at the market and this trap decided, there was a tear break
after Herbert and Josh hollan a full round in a half went until
the next. And then we see this cluster
here Kyler Mahomes hurts all within what seven or eight
picks. We know Lamar is going to go off
the board in the next couple of pics after us and then Look at
this side of the board. The next guy is Joe Borough our
Target, and we are going to have to basically fade.
One, two, three, four, five, six teams without a quarterback
selecting twice before we come back.
Like we legitimately if we got cute here and passed on
quarterback twice like burrow is the next up.
After ATP, after Lamar goes like there's a really good chance.
One of these teams grabs Borough and then we're fully shut out.
So we like you it that were they can lay its even though we had
all these stack options, Exactly.
So it's like I think we had the luxury of kind of getting our
pick at quarterback here and we knew we're always going to take
12 and so when we looked at the to be twos with the wide
receivers, we played it right, we do lose Hopkins but we had
Hopkins Smith Tony, all kind of like a same tier anyway so I
think getting our preferred quarterback.
Yeah. I was just like I don't think it
was a mistake or a reach. Well, I think it was a little
bit of a reach in the sense that ideally we would have had a
Target that we liked in the sixth and then it would have
been a no-brainer to wait until the seventh for the quarterback.
Because if we get sniped on Tyler, you know, like let's say
I'm interested. Brown was there.
Who? I think a couple times in the
chat was like, man, I wish I mean Ross in front of five
because then we would just scoop him up.
He doesn't boxes into any particular stack.
We've got Omar single, we can use we've Got a Cuyler single we
can use. We've got a potential Borough
double that we can reach for on the 7th of we want to.
If you know all the other quarterbacks go we could go on
stack of homes in the seventh would be pretty sweet.
So there's a million ways to play it, you know, even even
unstacked hurts within fine, in the 7th Century.
So yeah, that felt like, you know, and I guess the, the
version of that was take two vantaa then instead of Kyler,
and then we had The optionality to maybe get hurts, but it just
came down like to the the to the point you're making Pita like,
are we really going to risk burrow coming back to the 8th
and we could really boxed out and just in like a really tough
spot after looking so promising earlier.
So we knew almost certainly were taking a quarterback with one of
the next two picks So at that point, it was just like, we
don't let anyone here. So why don't we just take the
guy? We want the most, you know, I
don't like and then I was a long discussion trying to figure out
who that was. But but, but that's another
thing we've been talking about all offseason is that the wide
receivers didn't feel as sexy into the fifth and sixth round
this year, as the last couple of years.
Would you actually like some of the pockets in like the eighth
and Ninth round as well? I think that just for listeners
thinking through their other drafts or whatever.
I think that's a really interesting take Kawai as well,
but the fact that we started four receivers, with our first
five picks, you know, we would have loved to get almond raw
there and continue to go 0r B and continue to build the wide
receiver depth. Especially but imagine had we
taken multiple detours early and really felt like we needed to
take a receiver there that can be tough this year in the sixth
round. Yeah, it was kind of nice.
It was like, okay well we don't necessarily need to take a
receiver. Here, we can, you know, make
this QB luxury picky. Even a little ahead of a teepee
from from that regard. And it's tough to take the
reminder its own, you know? It was a good run reminder for
me, like, you know, once these quarterbacks aren't going super
early because the best ball, you know, then it starts to feel
even better it gets like way thinner.
You know, all of a sudden you're like, what happened, what I'm
used to this being a pretty solid spot to take a receiver
but you know, Mahomes is still available.
So it pushed everyone down, preserve one by me.
So now we can kind of set our sights on our seventh round pick
here. Which I mean I pulled up for
those of you are you to members who are seeing this on screen, I
have the FPC wrote of his Command Center up right now and
just to recap in case you guys are slightly lost here, our team
so far is Jamar Chase. Kyle pits, T Higgins.
Marquis, Brown, Rashad Bateman in Kyler's, Murray, you know,
looking just at best, a DP available here, the names at the
top are ceh. Michael Thomas, Russell gauge,
Lamar Jackson. Jackson Hunter, Renfro Devin
Singletary, Devante Smith in Drake London.
Here. I think we have all, we're all
in agreement. That this is a wide receiver
selection, right? Yeah.
And there's like no one even
tempting, like it would have been kind of interesting if you
like Mitchell slid. Again, we might have had a
pretty, you know, tough decision of being like do we want to
Value how this? But it seems like we're, you
know we had discussed of onto Smith last time to Darius Tony,
certainly in the conversation. I think Drake London's in the
conversation. I know Pat you voice concerns
about just having both pits and London.
Could this offense potentially support both of those where you
feel good starting them. I understand that argument.
But I do just think because London is has such an exciting
profile that they're, you know, similar to kind of the other
teammate that's we made where it's like the ceiling outcome of
hitting. One of those guys can be so
massive that it might even outweigh not being able to start
both of them, but But I am with you that we don't have to force
it with London in this spot. That's interesting, point of
like maybe I think maybe the issue is though that pits is so
vital to the build as a tight end that it's like it spits
isn't the guy like this team isn't really?
It's in a very difficult position.
So, and I think it's to be the guy like is going to need a
really strong Target share because the offensive line in
Atlanta is not very good. I don't think Mariota is very
good and I personally don't really believe in Ritter and
he's quite bad Under Pressure. It Cincinnati.
So So I don't think you're going to be an efficient office and
they were betting on passing volume because they're a bad
team and Pitt's dominates Target sure because he's a superstar.
So if he's not quite a superstar or of London is really really
good and it's stealing targets. I think that's just kind of a
bad outcome for this team. Where you leaning grach it here?
As I kind of filter to the wide receivers and also the the
current road of is positional ranks.
Yeah, I mean, II hear you on London.
I think I lean more towards hats points and I think the tight end
point was a really good one that yeah, that we're really betting
on pets being a super star tight end it.
So it's not the same probably as Chase Higgins.
For example, where it can be either guy we you know, that
would potentially be the one that takes Soften this, the
start we really needed to be pits.
We've made that bet. So yeah, I mean I'm kind of just
leaning back towards the Fanta. I know you guys were in on Tony
I was curious if either you guys would make the case for Tony
over Devonte straight up but I do think Devon te especially in
such a flat wide receiver range. I mean we're talking about like
almond raw for example, who added some Target competition
but had a, you know, how to better rookie year especially
late but even Elijah more went in the last round and was a guy
that I think we would have been. Happy to take in the sixth based
on where his a VP is sort of you know maybe a little bit of a
better Prospect profile and all that Pat speak to that but worse
draft capital and also added Target competition.
I don't necessarily think the oh you know you can talk about
volume in the Eagles often. So I don't necessarily think the
overall like passing production is you know Range of outcomes is
that much better for the Jets than the Eagles.
Obviously, there's concern the exact Wilson maybe as an
amazing. So, to me devant has a teepee
actually just looks a little bit off compared to, like, Elijah
more and almond Raw. We're still kind of reaching on
him but I mean this is a guy that could still be like a
really good and obviously, I love AJ ground, but I do think
there are some low key scenarios where the Eagles just throw it
on this here are maybe some that Loki people have talked about
that a lot but to me like looking at his, a DP versus
almond Roz and Elijah more is actually, I think a little
weird. Maybe that's true of Tony to,
but Tony maybe not quite as good of a prospect.
I don't know, I think I'm leaning towards Smitha.
I'm definitely leaning. Words Smith to, I think both in
a vacuum and just even looking at the ADP, you know, there is
here I guess it's not a massive Gap, 7 picks but even looking at
the odds of available next pick, you know, 10% chance to bond to
comes back. 32% could Darius comes back and you know on
Underdog could areas Tony has been a very trendy pick.
I know Josh Norris has beat the drum for him.
He's a guy who's ATP has crept up.
I find in general Underdog drafters are far more willing to
take on this outsides risk. If I think Tony represents, I do
think Tony is like, the perfect wide receiver, and a zero
running back, build, where he just gives us such a wide range
of outcomes where it's like, we could cut him by week four or he
could be a top-10 receiver in the league.
Like I could see either of those happening.
So that's the exact kind of big cuts.
We want to be taking that said, I do really think there are
scenarios in this draft room. I mean, I think this percentage
sounds about right to me, one out every three times.
Tony makes it back because I can see ffp.
See drafter being more spooked about About him and not wanting
to take on that risk. And you can see here, that's why
they're drafting Hunter Renfro over him, Russell gauge over
him. So I'm kind of willing to maybe
kind of gamble that we might get another crack at tone.
Yeah like that that's compelling to me because I think Eileen
Smith in a vacuum I'm going to certainly I'm taking Smith over
Tony and best ball but The manager Li component of this and
the desire running back Point p is like I really like that.
Like it's so much easier for me to imagine a starting Tony every
week like over Bateman, you know.
Yeah. Like just locking him in and
whereas with Devonte Smith gets, even if the Eagles are passing
more than expected AJ. Brown is AJ Brown, like, unless
he unless he gets hurt, which, you know could happen, then it's
just so much. For us to be feeling great about
starting to mount the Smith. On the other hand, like I think
I mentioned it on the last mini. I'm kind of intrigued by maybe
was over chat, but the mods mit's role could be a little bit
different than it was last year with AJ Brown replacing rhaegar.
And if he sees more of an intermediate work this year, I
think he could get a little bit more volume and be a bit of a
different type of receiver than he was a rookie and not be
quite. So Spike Vici, and planning on
hitting big plays down field. So yeah, I mean, I pretty clear
that this myth is a better Prospect than Tony.
He won the Heisman, I'm not the biggest guy.
But yeah, he's, what do you think about that?
What do you think about that? Comment in relation to their
Prospect profiles? And like what's happened in this
first off season? About Smith being feeling
feeling low compared to Elijah Morin almond wrong.
I think I'm going to offer. Sure.
I mean, I'm gonna run with a fourth-round pick, you know, as
a prospect. I think he has some interesting
production, but day, three receivers are not usually good
bets the matzo, Smith was super early first-round pick.
So I mean that alone is massive, although I Monroe's an early
declare who had production so kind of a sneaky good Prospect
and then Elijah more I think in some ways I think you got to
make a case from a, you know, a road of this kind of that Elijah
more was a better Prospect and Smith, but I don't know how
strong the case it would be it, it's close.
Those two are pretty close and they have a very similar rookie
years from yards per hour and perspective and more has a
squeeze on his routes potentially if he's going to be
out of the slot, I don't know that he's starting to wide
receiver testing begin the year, maybe he will, but there's some
uncertainty there safe. Lock them.
There's no way that quite a lot in the gaps are weird.
The Gap. Yeah it's a little weird it's a
little weird. Yeah and I think one thing I
wrestle with Ooh and trying not to over compensate for the best
ball to manage shift, is it again?
The Tony thing of like oh man this could be a top-10 guy, we
start every week where that's more unlikely for Devon to Smith
but we're still like the thesis of 0r B is that we're going to
have by weeks. We're going to have injuries and
we still want to be outscoring our opposition at that Flex wide
receiver, even if they're not a top 10 wide receiver.
Devante Smith seems like one of those guys that can punish your
opponent's, when you hit those by weeks and injuries as your
fourth. Are there even if he doesn't
have the sky high ceiling. Yeah, I like that.
Yeah. And compared sorry, Tony tight.
I was gonna say, we can still get the Tony type next time or
like, when you had that list up, you know, Trail on Burks is a
little lower scours lower. Those are probably similar guys
to Tony, can still hit that profile in our wide receiver,
you know, group probably on the way back even if it's not
necessarily Tony. But I like what you just said
about what you wanted brings to the group here.
Yeah, you guys should get like we have Some big high, you know,
big swinging, layer specifically the rookies.
I mean Burke's Sky more Chase. Claypool and Garrett Wilson are
all going to be available to us in these next couple of rounds.
Mmm, I love that pocket. Yeah yeah yeah I think Smith
just does he does give up side like you know he's a second-year
player who's efficient as a rookie and was a pretty strong
Prospect. So, He gives us upside compared
to new and when I think one of the reasons that I was
struggling so much clicking the button on new because like we're
not getting six weeks of production in a league.
Were you only have 12 weeks to make the big money like it's
just so tough. So I think what Smith gives us
you know that base layer of like production in the early weeks if
he does take a step forward, could be so big compared to new
so Getting him to fall here. I mean to me it kind of
validates the Kyler pick in some ways where Tyler Smith is pretty
sweet compared to like Nuke. Hurts or something.
Yeah, yep. I'm on board with this also just
kind of looking at, you know, the texture of the board is
well, I mean every other drafter except bit point out of the to
whole who did take Eli Mitchell as his first running.
Back has minimum two running backs and there's a lot of teams
with three running backs to and I do like that we're kind of on
this side of the board with him, you know we can kind of decide,
I assume he's going to start looking at running backs here,
whereas a lot of these other teams are going to start, you
know, having to kind of be Either look into the onesie
positions or tack on more wide receiver Firepower.
So I think we're like in a good spot to continue to like, pick
off the values and then also make a really good read on.
Like if we do want to make a running back detour at some
point, but I think where we're headed there are there are
scenarios where we're not taking our first running back until the
10th round. Oh for sure.
Those scenarios are called plan a yeah.
Yeah. I mean like I said there's very
few running backs that I would actually be, you know, pretty
excited to take a detour for Devin Singletary, is one of
them. I mean, his ATP at seventy nine
point nine makes it highly unlikely, he would make it back
to us but he's one of those kind of few exceptions otherwise I do
think you're getting into kind of a true like 0r B flyer range
committee backs with a bunch of these other guys.
Yeah, and you made a good point, okay.
Remember the players. But basically, the gap between
some of those guys in who we maybe would get it around 10.
It's not going to be as wide as You know, those really
intriguing wide receiver pocket and then who might be there as
we get all the way back around at wide receiver and round 10,
it's going to be a little bit more of a fall off.
So that's a, that's a big thing that we thought about in terms
of not taking the running back in round 6, was, you know, we
didn't have running back yet and going 40 Orbeez, never
comfortable, but you can't necessarily choose when to
correct, you know, a decision you already made.
Like that's, we would have been making a pic in the dead zone.
That we're pretty clear Dead Zone backs in terms of Gibson
and Mitchell who are guys that already.
Deuce. But the markets not buying in
and that tends to be the guys that don't actually really hit
it out of the dead zone. So it was a pretty big, I know
better pick if we went that route.
So like the lesson there, I think is you can't fix, you
know, I was like this body and who's doing a rookie draft right
now and he needs a QB, and you really wanted to take one of
these cubies in the second round.
And I'm like, the wide receiver prospects.
You can get this rookie draft your way better.
You can't fix your QB situation in this rookie draft for sure.
You know, it's a tough battle. Bet in this rookie draft to take
Desmond Ritter and think that's going to fix your QB situation.
It's one of these lessons I think is universal across
fantasy just because you have a need like it's And that's sort
of the idea of 0 RV, if you don't think that aren't running
back early, you just keep hitting wide receiver.
Build that strength, don't take something that isn't improving
your team if they're running backs in round eight of the same
as the running backs around pain, the run it though.
The player pool does not care what your needs are, right?
Yeah, yeah. It is interesting here to I
haven't been sharing this part of the screen, but just also
looking at the draft applet which, you know, still I think
some people have a little anchoring bias.
But I do notice that, you know, Devon to Smith is ahead in the
draft applet of all these guys were taking to so lots of kind
of confirmation to that. If any of these guys were to
slip, it's probably not Devon to Smith.
It won't be Smith. Yeah.
I would be shocked. I truly shocked, especially cuz
like, I think to Ben's point of like, more and amun-ra, you
know, if you're thinking like, oh, I got this guy like this
point of two rounds after Elijah barley, you're smashing it.
So yeah, I think he makes a ton of sense.
Give ourselves a chance to Tony and like, Tony.
I mean, it's a very similar archetype and, in some ways to a
perks to Sky more, like, just a pure home run swing, a lot of
uncertainty. So, I think it kind of makes
sense to get Smith who's a slightly different type of that
although still has upside and then maybe Tony leads the way
with the, with the next turn. But, yeah, if you think in terms
of build, like it is, it's nice to obviously and early July 22
goes to your running back because there's so much more
uncertainty about How all this stuff's going to shake out
training, camp itself but also like, yeah, I do worry about,
you know, in September pretty much every running back.
I like round 10 on, is at risk of moving up by like two rounds,
except for Rocha, who probably will fall by around this, but
everyone else could move up considerably.
So, getting a chance, not just to benefit from the chaos, but
to be able to, like, load up on that Target group, is kind of
like, Two things that might not be available to us later.
Yeah, yeah. All right, I'm gonna pull the
trigger here. On Devon, te Smith and yeah, it
should be really fun to see what comes back to us at 8:08.
We will be back. It was our, that was our tough
turn, but nothing should be a little bit easier for.
I can't wait for these things. Should be a lot clearer going
forward. Now that we've gotten through
the six and seven. Yeah, that was that was a
treacherous road. I told the guys in this shift
chasing Discord that they're going to to have some twists and
turns with these pics, they got rubbed on the last mini.
We went another Direction but you gotta relax.
Exactly. Yeah.
So if you're listening to the audio version and you'd like to
check out the video versions, we are making those available for
our ship chasing VIPs which means you are a YouTube member.
Also get you access to the ship chasing Discord.
We will see you guys in the eighth round piece.