Let's start today with the trivia question.
What do you were shot? Any?
Damien Harris. And Nicole Hartman.
Alden. Common They will all make less
guaranteed money in 2023. And the guy right here in my
t-shirt who most recently was employed writing blurbs, Ian,
Thomas and Rex Burkhead. Follow the money.
This is a tiki chasing Pat, fryer, homos.
Anita hand handjob exercise Jamar.
Just to be clear. I didn't know that opening was
good was coming. It wasn't news to me, I'm just
embrace it. Crane, like, we need like a
little bit of a villain Arc for you, like at least one time this
summer. When you guys are drafting teams
and you and Pete are on the clock, arguing, you got it, at
least one time, you got to whip it out and be like, why don't we
let the guy who won two million dollars last year?
Make the pick, you know, because there's going to be, there's
going to be a spot where you guys are.
Disagreeing and you gotta do it to him at least once there was a
comment on ship chasing on Wednesday.
Someone said, I don't know what it is but Pat seems smarter this
year. I like the other idea.
Someone threw out of you just doing the total here.
Turn heel, turn of just advocating for flatter payout
structures and all tournaments this year.
But ideas, well I'm strongly considered that because I do
actually think but look, I don't want to I don't want to have the
from now on now on it should be fine from now on.
Yes. Well yeah.
Anyways it was as fun catching up on the show from last week.
Obviously Hayden was hidden, was, they're replacing me.
You guys had some really interesting discussion on the
free agency stuff was interesting.
Getting his takes but yeah, I think we're we're going to do it
again this week, still a lot of free agency movement, still some
Fallout from the guys that were signed last week.
Yeah, before we get to the free agency stuff, I wanted to start
Today's Show with talking about Bijan Robinson, I know Pat
recently wrote an article on legendary upside obviously check
that out for those. You that subscribe And subscribe
if you'd already. But I also did a deep dive into
looking at be Jean's, potential Landing spots and impact that
might have on his ADP. So I'll lay out my argument of
sort of how I looked at it first and then want to get your guys
take. So the basic thing that I try to
do it, And I'm adding this to the stream here is I wanted to
consider all this potential Landing spots and to do that, I
wanted to filter out the teams that are unlikely to take him.
And I came up with essentially six criteria, that makes it seem
unlikely to take Bijan. I'm not arguing that like,
anyone, any team on this list like it's impossible.
They would take the Jean. Surely like there's still a
chance, but I think it was sort of important to come up with a
systematic way to filter out some teams.
So, those criteria that would make teams unlikely to select
Bijan would be Not having a draft pick in round one.
I think that's kind of obvious. Everyone's projecting Bijan to
go around one, a draft pick in round 1, but only in the top
five. I just think very unlikely in
today's NFL, a team takes Bijan in top 5 of round one.
Then a couple related to current money, allocated to running back
in their current RV rooms. So teams that either have eight
million guaranteed to a free agent that they gave out in 2023
or teams that would have more than 10 million a dead cap if
they Cut their current running back, so that filters out a ton
of other teams, you know, like Derrick Henry on the Titans
album Camaro on the Saints etcetera.
And then the final two criteria related to draft capital in the
past couple of years. So teams that draft in running
back in round 1 of the past two years or teams that spent of top
50 pick on a running back last year.
So then again, filters out teams like the Jaguars Steelers who
took etn and Nagi in the first round, two years ago teams like
Jets and the Seahawks you took Kenneth Walker but you saw last
year. So that was my criteria.
I don't think you can filter out the Seahawks by the way, I just
want, I officially want that. I officially want that on the
record. I don't I don't think that you
can say the Seahawks are especially because the Seahawks
could be a trade back team given where they're picking and the
fact that they just paid Gino. I think they could be a trade
back team. So I do I just want I want that
on the record there was I think that's fair and I think you can
you can like nitpick some of these He's like the Dallas.
Sure, sure. It will knit back right.
But like I think my point is like the ones that you're
nitpicking are also the terrible Landing spots for Bijan, right?
Like I would nitpick the Titans in the Saints because I think
made my just go, we love running the ball.
Let's find a better guy to do it with and I actually like that
might look terrible. Yeah, that for like a second,
but then you're like, no, I kind of love this really, this whole
argument that we were having via DM, and Discord, the other day
does come down. Into Crane, and I basically just
saying like, Bijan Gober, like whatever team takes him, is just
going to want to give him the ball because we, we just think
he's so good. Like, like Pat and I just think
he's so good that we're like, we don't care.
Like, just take him. Get him on a team and he's gonna
just spit out fantasy points. Bijan is the one who knocks.
That's that's essentially, are you?
Yes, yes. And I get that and I don't
really disagree with that. I guess what I disagree with is
like the market perception to some of these Landing spots.
Is a maybe I think worse than what you guys.
Imagine. Sure, sure.
Okay, the say it's, they could take him.
I guess like, somehow they find a way to get rid of Khmer, even
though I think they would have like 25 million in dead cap if
they got Camaro, they get rid of chimeras.
He's not playing very much this year because he's going to get
suspended. Yeah, yeah, I guess they got to
figure that out later, I guess so.
But they gave Jamaal Williams like 10 million, guaranteed
Chimera. As a huge cap hit, like I'm not
putting exciting things to do that, but it's that's an insane.
It would be an insane way. A like kind of impressive way to
allocate Capital to the position, and this things are
crazy with the cap. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Anyways, like, I think I think like might just do like rat out
my argument and then I want to hear more about like the
prospect stuff from you. Pat and Davis as well is like I
think like you may have a map out the likely Landing spots.
Maybe you want to add in a couple more here.
Maybe you want to add in like Dallas, Tennessee, whoever you
want to add in here. I think you're gonna come out
with like the majority of these lands.
Spots being perceived as like - by the market because I think is
ATP right now. Like fakes in.
Like the idea there's some clean Workhorse.
Good offense, landing spot for him and why that probably is
true, especially like this is not a diet.
So you take, this is purely like a redraft basketball take.
I'm not worried about his landing spot Dynasty like at
all, but I think the market will perceive like a slight - hit
based on like the most likely scenarios for his landing spot.
So that's my point how you want to like In that I know Pat you
would argue that. That doesn't matter like he has
a floor, I would argue maybe just wait post draft to get more
exposure but yeah. Anyways Pat what do you think
about Bichons to prospect? Like why are you sort of on the
side of this debate? Yeah, I actually included your,
your Tweet in my article that I posted this morning on my top
three running backs, Bijan obviously number one, and I get
your point. I actually agree with your point
that like, in most outcomes. Probably viewing it is like not
a great landing spot and maybe he falls a little bit in terms
of his ATP. I have a different conclusion
though which is I think he's, he is a target at kind of the two,
three turn area. Because look, I mean, if you
draft him at pick 14, and he ends up being kind of, like,
worth to you, like I really more like fourth pick. 19, that's not
a huge loss. On the other hand, if he goes to
the Vikings and they cut, Dalvin cook, Look, he's like the 106 or
higher, right? If he goes to the maybe even
eats or the Bangles. Yeah, we're talking about like
huge huge price increase. And if you think about in terms
of like auction dollars, you know, that's a guy jumping up
until like potential like 50 plus dollars.
You know, if you goes to one of these great spots from like, you
know, maybe 30 or something. It's like, oh no.
Like he dropped from 30 to 25. Not a big deal, but you have
this huge upside scenario outcome where you from the early
2nd round. Got a guy who's now like a top
three top five, maybe top six type of value.
So I think you want to mix them in because the floor is still
really high. Even if like the ATP floor is
like a little lower than I'm suggesting part of it for me is
that? I think he's such a strong
prospect. That if the market had him.
It's like a, two three, turn type of pick because he landed.
Patriots as I go, God is again split time with them or Andre my
take would be. No, he's not.
He's going to have this backfield by the time, the flip
the fantasy playoffs were all around and he's, you know, he's
got a ton of upside. I'd be, I'd be prioritizing him
in that range. So that's part of it for me, is
that, I guess I'm gonna be higher than Market.
If he's really any further down the, like the mid second.
I thought experiment, Joe Mixon, gets cut the Bangles select
Bijan Robinson, either with pick 28 or they trade up or whatever
to get him soapy Ryan's Gone, mix-ins.
Gone. What is the highest?
His August 1st Underdog. ATP could be.
What is what is what would be Jean's?
ATP. Max out at in a backfield by
himself and Cincinnati. I mean I don't care I'll be take
him out of McCaffrey. Yeah.
And then obviously I think
Jefferson would still go ahead and like that might be it.
So I think I think I agree with Pat because Chargers that that
Claire gets traded and be Jean's there.
I think you're capturing the same amount upside Vikings is
weird because Hayden schooled us on this last week but it's like
kind of hard for them to get rid of David Cooks money and they
just they they What do they tag Madison?
Or they gave him an extension? That's like actually make
attention. Yeah, it's like kind of more
money than you would expect. Alexander Madison to be getting,
but, you know, whatever the bills feels just like, it's not
going to happen now because they signed Damien Harris and they
smelt the second round pick on cook.
Like, I think the bills are probably taking a wide receiver
there, the cheese could do anything, you know, the chiefs
of the, the Chiefs have have confounded me all offseason.
I did. I looked this up yesterday.
The Chiefs have Four players on the roster who are 30 or older,
one of them is their Long Snapper, and they have Five
Guys, Five, Guys on the whole roster who make double digit
million salary. So 10 million dollars more.
It's like, they're they have the this very weird roster.
I don't think they would take Bijan but I also didn't think
they were going to take Clyde, you know?
So yeah. Just taking Clyde.
Make them more or less likely to take these shots because we know
they'll do it. It obviously was the disaster.
Well so the thing would be is you look at their offense,
you're like okay you got 34. Year-old Travis Kelce, you got
Sky who stinks? You got mbsu stinks, you let
Hardman go. We're like What It's you're
really going to make Pat. Do this again like basically
playing with his hand tied behind his back for a whole year
II. Think that whatever the market
odds for the Chiefs to take Bijan.
I think the Reality odds are higher.
I'm not saying they'll do it. But I'm saying bread feet just
sitting on the clock at 31 and it's like Zay flowers is gone.
So he's looking at Josh Downs Arby, Jean Robinson, I could
pretty easily see them in that room talking themselves and
Bijan over the wide receivers said, let's let's get ready to
draft Jalen Hyatt. Way ahead of where we want to be
right. Yes, exactly.
Yeah. I guess, yeah.
Just Again, Play devil's advocate here a little bit.
If you look at grinding them all, Ox B, Jean's expected,
draft position is like 16 overall and the consensus big
boards have them in like top 10, ish range.
So, I would say this charges may be a little misleading that I
think like the Bangles Chiefs Vikings like the clean herb
better Landing spots are also I don't think he's getting there.
Yeah my my prognostication is I think if I had to put money on
it and maybe I will maybe I'll go look at this.
While we're doing the show I would say the Falcons in the
commanders are the two teams that feel most likely to not
trade out not get fancy just beyond the clock and just simply
select him. Yeah I would put the Bucks.
In there, too. Because like, even though it's a
duck, I think it's a dumb football move like they should
be rebuilding, not taking assets at running back.
I think like their offseason signals so far like that,
they're not going for the rebuild.
Like they're re-signing, older account.
Is in signal that. No, dude.
They cut so many guys. They've cut like eight starters
because he's a Quaker may feel. That seems about as clear
semester and I think Lee, I think leave us, I think leave us
is probably who I would say is most likely for them there.
If Again, assuming because leave us is going to do his Pro Day
actually, he's gonna start throwing in about 45 minutes and
we'll see, we'll see how that goes.
Like, I actually think leave his could make himself some money
with a pro day. The point on the boxes of sort
of around their defensive signings, like they re side
Levante David re-signed Jamel, Dean to a huge contract.
Like they're bringing back, these veteran defensive players,
so that was my point there. But I see what you guys are
saying. Like, I don't know the boxes
strike me with You know, that organization as a team that
would be in the mix for Bijan here.
But, you know, so those those three are interesting though
because like to me, if he goes to the Falcons, he goes to the
Commander's. He goes to the box, I think like
immediately he has those back fields and I like Richard white
and I like Tyler algier. I'm not a big Brian Robinson
guy. You love, Tyler algier?
I do, I think he's good, guess what?
He's backing up, be John Robinson, it's not He's not in
the mix. Well, I could always move it
back to his natural position. It's not even a wasted traffic,
they can move. They, you know, he could be, he
could be a situation a linebacker completely clearly
off all linebacker. That's a real value, pick there
for them. But yeah, I mean, I think he's
probably going around pick 1314 in those spots because he's
gonna get projected a ton of touches in those backfields I
think. Yeah, that's fair.
I don't know, I still think like those offenses, all those
offenses you mentioned are like in a project set like maybe
there's some upside with the Falcons like they have some pass
catchers. Maybe you could argue that with
the Commander's that Howell gets better box.
There's definitely some upside with the Falcons.
We've seen them be a productive, rushing offense.
Even with the offense being terrible, we know they're going
to run the ball, no matter what. Like the fact that they're bad,
almost doesn't matter because they'll just run until the
games. Oh yeah.
Yeah. Now it's fair and maybe with
Ritter we see a little bit more pass-catching value for the
running backs first, Mariota. I know pass it down.
Once they put Ritter instead of Mariota jump, I like seven per
game so that could help the pass-catching there for the
running back. So yeah, I see that.
Yeah, I guess to put a bow on this discussion.
I think like I think Pat's argument is totally reasonable.
I understand like if you still think he is a smash.
Ash the two. Three turn at the market
eventually values. Him there, like you're not
really losing that much. Just drafting them.
Now I think just I'll take like a slightly more conservative
approach. I've drafted plenty of Bijan so
far. I think at this point I'm just
gonna wait post draft and see, where's value lands, but he
doesn't like, I'm not arguing like, oh, he's gonna drop the
fifth to be landed on these teams now, like, I really with
you there, I will say, like, if he goes to the Bears or the
Ravens, I don't love that. No, both both of those spots,
feel bad, quite quite bad. Yeah, I don't think, also, I
don't think the Chargers with them.
Keeping Eckler is out of the question, like, hecklers cap.
It is pretty pretty small this year and he's on the last year
of his deal. I could see them looking towards
the future and I know even Eckler himself has said like I
want them to bring in running back to take you know touches
between the 20s from me. So like I don't think he would
you know refused to play or something.
But I think that would be Be okay, like because then you
start to get more excited about the Chargers offense.
Like, I don't think it's price would go up, but I don't think
you're not getting them at the 301, if he's on the Chargers.
Yeah, maybe I don't know tough to say.
Anyways, let's jump in into the risers for this week.
That was a good discussion on Bijan.
So again the largest ATP risers from the past week.
Again, we see a lot of the free agency impact at running back
really showing its face here, the largest risers.
Once again, we have Rashad Penny being the largest Riser, this
week up, twenty seven spots, other guys in the list day of
Montgomery miles Sanders, Pollard, Damien Harris, James
Robinson, Jeff Wilson, and then a couple other receivers here.
We have Brandon Cooks, and Adam thielen, and then finally, semaj
perine. So, let's start, let's start
with Penny, Davis curious, how far, how much farther up the
draft boards? You're chasing Penny, he's
jumped like almost a hundred. Fish pics from his original
price. Now when do you start to get
hesitant on on Penny probably Only 10 more pics.
This this feels this kind of feels this kind of feels like
the right range for him. It also feels like a good
asymmetric bet to be making in these these weird tournaments
where I mean, it's like, who knows if you're going to have
the stacks, right? Who knows that you're not going
to, you know, week 17 matchups like just feels because it it
feels like no chance. Penny is exactly the running
back 28. You know.
It doesn't it doesn't it. Feel like one of those things
where it's either Rashad penny is the The scratch behind Tracer
remember every week of the Season, or he's Mi Sandra last
year. God, please just, no be true.
Trey sermon, I believe, makes more didn't want to be charged
Penny laughs. I believe if, if we're doing the
for doing the, you know who makes more money than crane, I
believe sermon is on a larger contract than Penny because he
was a second round pick and Penny is a veteran minimum.
Let me, let me give some news. The more guaranteed money than
Richard Penny and free agency this year.
Dr. Foreman Boston, Scott Justice Hill.
Travis Homer, like 40 years old, who did Justice.
He'll sign with the Ravens. He's back on.
I just resigned. Okay, your four million, got
1.25 million guaranteed. I don't know why.
That's like, that's like how that's like how the Patriots
just gave eight million dollars to a Long Snapper.
It's all about, it's all about like, special teams and stuff
has got to be Yeah, but I don't know.
Pat, what do you think? Like, obviously the I guess the
question is kind of like when does the downside matter?
I think I'd pick 111 like I don't care that much if he's has
zero it's not gonna hurt me that much unless I had like 100
percent exposure but at some point like the the floor has to
matter, right? Yeah, I think but I don't think
we're there yet and I've still been taking him, you get to that
range like, you know, and the ninth or tenth or whatever.
I think he's pretty good pic. So I guess the thing with the
floor is like what? He's so good on early Downs that
it's hard for me to feel like it's going to be Ronald Jones
last year where he's just a healthy, scratch all season.
I guess that's possible. The contract would point to that
as a possibility. But I'm thinking more like, you
know, this guy struggle with injuries his entire career
that's also got up have factored into why he didn't.
Have a team really commit anything to him.
His weekly ceiling is really, really high.
And so like, I think look, if you get a zero for most of the
year and then you get a Rashad Penny healthy three-game,
stretch in the fantasy, playoffs like that, pays for itself and
then some in the ninth or tenth, I don't think he's start really
like, hurting your Advanced rates until he moves up by like
another couple rounds. Yeah, I think I'm done I've
nothing else to add. You could even do them is like a
handcuff honestly at this price. Like let's say they do take
Bijan like Penny could still be a high upside handcuffed to be
Jean at that price. Yeah, it's a pricey handcuffed
but it's not like a crazy price to pay just given how good the
offense is. So I agree.
Yeah and then frankly the other like I guess you could compare
them to other positions like the other running backs in this
range don't have super high floors.
Either really the wide receivers are almost like entirely wiped
out at this point. So the opportunity cost is still
at a point where I'm not too too concerned I think like I'm gonna
I've been still clicking him like not as aggressively as it
was when he was a pic 180 but I've been so clicking.
I'm at around this price I think you're like I'd have to start
thinking harder about it at like pick like 85 90, but I think up
until that point I'm still like fine with it.
Yeah. Okay, another guy
second-biggest, Riser here David Montgomery, huge week for
deamonte nation. He's up, 20 spots, 19% increase
in a teepee. How I've heard a lot of like the
Swift verse verse Montgomery stuff the past couple weeks, Pat
do you have any takes on Montgomery and you're sort of
overall approach to how you're drafting the Detroit backfield?
I think Swift has fallen to like the XT is if I remember that
right? I can double-check that.
Yeah, we had. I think it was.
Yeah, ship chasing. And this was because, you know,
no one was drafting any running backs as usual in that draft.
And Swift felt to the seventh round.
And at that price, I'm very in, I think it's a great bet but I
don't love him in the sixth. I just feel like, you know,
they've told us about, every way they possibly can, that they're
not that into him. And he's probably going to be,
you know, Of a rotational guy. They've also shown us last year
that they'll mix in Justin Jackson.
They'll they would probably play Craig Reynolds.
A fair amount or whatever, it doesn't really matter who the
guy is. I don't think Swift really has a
path to like in any particular game, even a Workhorse role.
So he's definitely he's an efficiency bat.
He's like, you know, he scores two touchdowns he, you know, he
he takes a reception to the house like he's very live to do
that stuff but I think he want to keep the prices cheapest.
As possible Montgomery at pick 89.
Now, I mean, That's your, you're literally, you're literally
paying for a 14 touchdowns season, like does it sort of
feel that way? Yeah, I still want.
I want. So he's in the eighth and Swift
like if Swift's in the seventh and he's in the eighth, I'm
definitely taking. Okay, let's thought experiment.
Sam DeAndre Swift shows up to Camp.
Gets hurt again. Dan Campbell's?
Like dude enough of cutting your enough like enough of this dude
I do. I did an anti Swift tweet
earlier today so I got some Some more data.
If we want to go there, what, what, what is David Montgomery
in this offense, on this team with this coaching staff?
What is like the best season? He could have?
What does it look like? I think it could be like a Joe
mix in season from two years ago or something like that.
Like, low end, our be wanting all of you thought, amazing.
You think if you think that's the range then this is a great
price. I think the range is that he's
Devin Singletary from two years ago when the bills gave him
everything Okay, let me so I looked into this, like, I, I was
totally on, like, on the side of Swift response summary.
You know, the Swift is a way better talent.
I want to be on the side of Swift.
So I looked into their rushing and receiving grades from PFF
over the past three years and a few.
So if you adjust them for like numbers of Russia's and routes,
meaning like in the Years, where Swift got More rushes.
You would like wait that grade more than the year where you got
injured and only had 70 Russia's.
So you take the weighted average of the Russian receiving grades
over the last three years. Montgomery's Rush grade is 73,
Swift's is 70 Montgomery's receiving grid is 66 Swift's is
64. So like I don't know and like I
think we've also seen and how coaches view these guys that
coaches have been willing to give Montgomery much larger
workloads, and they've been willing to give Swift and they
just Montgomery a ton of money for a free, Asian running back.
I think we also have to think about Montgomery, you get a
six-game, stretch 10, 20 20. This is with Mitch to biscuit
quarterback. Whereas half PPR game, logs, not
full, PPR half epr game logs, 23 points, 25 points, 23 points, 29
Points, 19 points 24 points. So average 24 half, PPR points
over a six-game, stretch with Mitch bilsky, I don't know.
I'd like in that. Ann.
Are you describe Davis where Swift is gone?
You remember when that actually happened, though?
They just like it was going to take off this teams.
Like he was like a weekly play in DFS because he was like,
getting just like the softest, rushing matchups, but I don't
know, but it's still a good sits.
Like this situation is better than the Chicago Bears.
True Biscay LED offense like I see your point there.
It was like weak defenses but I don't know. 24, half people are
points per game over a six-game stretch.
Like I think the upside is certainly there in the snare
that Davis presented. We're like they're done with
swift. I think low-end rb1 season is
certainly apply for Montgomery. I would definitely push back on
the like David Montgomery is good narrative.
He was like in Russia as a respected / tempt.
He was very bad last year. Only work, Melvin Gordon,
Michael Carter, James Robinson, Leonard fournette, nausea,
Harris, Zeke, Richard, white diamond, cook, and Antonio
Gibson, were the only running backs who were worse than him
last year. He hasn't been as efficient as a
receiver in yards per hour on his Swift.
He's like fine. It's a receiver.
I Swift was gone and Davis's analogy.
He probably would just like soaked up a bunch of dump offs
but he's not a playmate, he makes guys like Miss.
Wouldn't it just be like Justin Jackson playing on third?
Bounce. Yeah, and I'm skeptical of the
grades with Montgomery in particular because he does like
make guys miss, but then he doesn't move forward.
Afterwards wasn't just the thing and then he just sits wasn't
that. The the thing with him coming
out as a prospect like, wasn't the thing that people who liked
him really latched onto was that at Iowa State?
He he did, he was like either really good at breaking tackles
or really good at causing. I don't remember which metric
people are really good. Obviously the thing Yes, of
course, Miss tacos for touch is people.
I think he was and and pro football references, well, his
like broken tackle stuff was really strong, just think anyone
can watch. I just think anyone who's
watched him play can understand that.
That it's totally like he just is a slow lumbering type like
these. Not bad.
I think I think he's gonna fit in pretty well.
Like I think he is, I think he's better than Jamal Williams.
Like I think he's probably a better north-south and a little
bit more capable. Well, like, the thing was Jamaal
Williams in all those games Swift missed.
Yeah, I remember every week I would be doing the projections
and I'd be like, all right, well Swift's out so I got to give to
my Williams like an eight percent Target, share for Ali.
And his targets here went down in the games that the Andres
with darkness, is like insane. It got down to below 4%.
So I think Honestly to me, the Montgomery thing is totally more
about than just being over like Dan Campbell and his staff just
being over DeAndre Swift and it is about being like, I mean,
it's a big contract for him and I just, I have trouble seeing a
real ceiling, he feels like to me, he feels like a good Advance
rate tough to see me selling myself on, that's you needed and
week 17. I guess like the only thing with
Montgomery like the guys in his range.
Are all guys that can get completely wiped out by Bijan,
Robinson, Khalil Herbert Rashad white James Cook.
Tyler algier like, you know, you say a patch Echo.
Those are all the guys going right around to them.
I think there's like very little risk for like a huge running
back in the draft going to Detroit.
So I don't know. It's a little bit of like the
safety relative. Those other guys he just got
paid like I feel a lot better about that than Rashad.
Why James Cook Tyler As year better owes its to.
Yeah, I think that's a good take.
It is a deep running back class, though.
So like by the end of the year it is, do they take a rookie who
actually is someone? They end up trusting on early
Downs like, you know, is this a three-way split by the end of
the year? I could see that like Talent is
protection. You know, if you believe that a
guy is good, then you're going to feel much better about his
role. Lasting over the course of the
year. I think Montgomery being like,
Oh, Okay at everything but not really that.
Great does put him at some risk. I'll be, I agree with you.
It's not going to be Jean but someone else could come in and
start playing really well. And it could be like a Pacheco
thing where his that guy's roll grows over the course of the
year. Yeah, well yeah.
We'll see with with Montgomery verse Swift will be an
interesting debate. Like I kind of thought that at
some point. They're there a TPS will like
flip. So then for me that gets even
more interesting but we'll see if a trans all the way in that
direction. If they flip, I mean, I'm gonna
have a lot of Swift. Yeah, I probably I probably
would too depending like sort of where that converges.
Okay. Another thing that the market
might let us have like tenth round Montgomery and then I then
I would be in. But at this price it's a little
makes me a little queasy. I should probably makes him in
though. Cool.
Yeah let's talk. Let's talk Tony Pollard.
We had been talking about him. I don't ever since like Pat
since you started looking at your house I think since I
started looking at drafts, we've been mentioning Pollard.
It's just sort of a clear like weirdly mispriced player at
around pick 40. He has now jumped up to to pick
30. I guess, Davis.
All put this you first. What do you what do you think
about? Increase in price and would you
continue to chase that higher up words?
I mean I think you just keep chasing Pollard until they give
you a reason not to I mean obviously one I think you got
like a bazillion out. So I mean, one Pollard might
just get there on efficiency. The way he got their own
efficiency, the last two years. I mean he was the running back
eight last year and what Zeke, missed two games last year?
I think two or three games, but still, he just absolutely
crushed. I think it's pretty unlikely.
The Cowboys, take Bijan, I think.
You know, them the very similar to the Texans signing Devin
Singletary. The Dallas Cowboys signing
Ronald Jones is probably more of a signal of admission that they
like Pollard then that they are looking to replace him, but he
agree with you. It's it!
Look, it's sad. I mean, look, we love you, Raj.
Oh, we love you. But I don't think you're
threatening. If you, if you didn't, threaten
seventh, run rookie, Isaiah Pacheco.
I don't know if you're gonna threaten Tony Pollard he's
playing on the franchise tag. I am excited for what?
Tony Pollard has a hip pointer or something and I can damn, I
can jam Row, Joe and DFS, yeah. It's not bringing the bringing
the Bijan conversation back, you mentioned the Bears.
And Ravens is your like least favorite Landing slots for
Bijan. So let's say, the Cowboys, add
nobody else, it's just Pollard, Malik Davis, Ronald Jones, and
Bijan goes to the Bears. Who would you rather have?
I think Pollard. You just not getting any
receiving work from from Bijan there and it's like now he's
it's really awesome to down guy but it's see like definitely a
better early down guy than Nick Chubb, you know?
Like, uh, Yes, it's because he's part of the play with Bijan is
that he's like gonna get way more receiving work.
The nickname is more slavery down, but is he going to get
more receiving worker bees on the Bears?
And so that that's where it starts feel like, okay?
Now, Bijan really is kind of, more of a third round value.
Yeah, that's fair. I think when the same boat there
with, with pardon, like, obviously be Johnson.
Amazing Prospect the best we've seen since sparkly zico ever.
You want to, you know, put the put the Line in the Sand there
but it's still projecting a guy in the NFL.
We know Pollard is amazing. So like I 95 percent confident
Bijan is going to be amazing, but if I know Paul is already
amazing is in a better situation.
Yeah, I would I would probably take him over in that situation.
Other guys, a couple like, more deeper guys on this list.
Damien Harris, James Robinson, Jeff Wilson and some a GP Ryan.
Let's stick with the running backs.
First, Pat, any of these risers that you're not buying or you're
questioning why they're going upwards, James Robinson?
What's the what's that cos 1? I mean, I'd say I guess that he
has a job is that why he's Rising?
I think people are what I assume a strong is one of our
followers. So the market is just saying
James Robinson is the complement, not pierced wrong /
Kevin Harris. This James all the reason to buy
a strong, you know if we own if there wasn't if Kevin Harris, a
stronger one person. I would be very bullish on that
one running back. It's just tough because it's
like you could be like directionally accurate and bed.
Jean-Pierre strong. And it turns out it's Kevin
Harris. So that that part of it makes me
makes it tough, but I'm not betting on James Robinson.
Underdog should find a way to like securitize, like the are B4
and B5. Sorry, 15.
Yeah, party for Patriots are before I'm driving.
Yeah, yeah. I think the Robinson thing.
I think like the the contract was a little bit of funny money
that got people confuse like it came out as two years, eight
million, it's actually zero guaranteed money on that
contract. So it could be like let's get a
look on. Got him in Camp, like if he's
back to Old James Robinson, you know, maybe miraculously he does
sort of the cam Akers thing, where he recovers the, you know,
pretty Achilles form. And then we get an okay deal on
him. Otherwise we just caught him.
I think that's sort of the Pats play here.
So I'm not drafting him at all. I think he could easily be cut.
Yeah, and if he's not content with that what's the, what's the
upside? Even if Stephenson went down, do
we think it would be were coerced and Robinson because I
do not That's what, that's what the drafters.
That's what the James Robinson drafters are saying though.
They're saying that that of the four guys who are on the roster
right now. He's the, he's the, I mean, he
why he weighs more than a strong?
I don't know about Kevin Ayers but he would be the most likely
big-bodied goal line type guy. I think it's, I mean, people
wouldn't even take her Madre because it's like, oh God
Patriots running back. Can't draft him.
It's always a gross committee. Like and now we're my Audrey
gets hurts and it's not a gross committee.
It's the James Robertson show, like, give me a break.
Like we know, it would be a gross committee.
If James Robinson, didn't show anything last year, coming off
the torn Achilles. He'd have to yeah, way way
better. I don't even know that.
Like, Jacksonville era, James Robinson would like have Bill
Belichick's full trust in his first year, the guys look, the
guy generally likes committees. So yeah, this is what happens
from Andre gets injured week 6 has to miss a game.
We find out two hours before kickoff.
James Robinson has been healthy scratch for JJ.
Taylor off the practice squad. Yeah, yeah.
It's producers for minute Jay Jay.
Taylor highlight reel that. So I'm not buying two of these.
Adam thielen will be on zero of my fantasy teams and I can't
imagine, Jeff Wilson will be on any of my team's either Miami.
I would make Miami like a - 500 favorite to add a running back.
In the draft, maybe even, maybe even more than that.
Like maybe to write, maybe even multiple running backs.
Like they got Miami got so little production out of the
running backs and and I feel like we all kind of became
enamored by the the Tyreke, Jalen waddle and then a river
crack wraps coming out and trencher field.
Just scored an 80 yard, touchdown and put like look.
Mike McDaniel is a Shanahan. Acolyte this he wants to run the
ball. Dude.
You don't you like he let mikasuki go.
Look at all the tight ends they have on their roster.
All their tight ends are like, you know, mono syllabic you know
Big Ten. Yes, yeah exactly like those
dudes are out there to fucking great the road.
You know. That's why they are.
That is why they're on the team so and Jeff look you know all
due respect Remo sir. All due respect to Jeff Wilson.
These are like the most replacement level guys in the
NFL. So I I think Yeah, just seems
Seems bad, but perine. I'm chasing all the way up to
you guys. See this, Sean, Payton stuff
this last week. He was like I went out and
recruited some artist Pierre. I'd like I wanted semaj perine
and he was saying like and then Pierre I'm at the same themes, a
an article where they both gave quotes and perine was like yeah.
I was very convinced by his sales pitch.
Basically. Like he's gonna play me a shit
ton. Because Javonte Williams is it
going to be 100% all year? Yeah.
Alright, back to the, I want to hold on.
Yeah, I like the pure on one that back to Wilson Davis, I had
the same thought to you. As thought as you about the
Dolphins they only have four picks in the draft in total and
I kind of forgot that they gave up two picks, right?
Yeah, they only have so they're only day to Pixar pick 51 and
pick 84 then they don't pick again till pick 197 and pick
238. They did give Jeff both Jeff
Wilson and Remo stirred around 2 million and guarantee that
signing. So I think like like I think
they're going to add one running back.
I think that still makes like either Wilson Ramos turd worth
drafting in this range. Like I think it's still Fair
like handcuff price 164. Like I don't know, worst-case
scenario, pick 51. They could get like Gibbs or
sharpen a like pick 84. Maybe they're in the range for
like Roshan Kendry Miller like totally plausible scenarios, but
I think it might be hard for them to like, draft to like
better. Her running backs than Jeff
Wilson. So that's my only slight push
back there that I think I'm okay with Wilson at that price.
Hear me out, undrafted free agent.
Do spawned the Miami Dolphins who objects not me?
I just can we just I don't I don't ask very much out of the
NFL but just can I get like a game uh, NFL game of seeing what
do spawn can do out? And if I just, that's all I
want, I just want what I just want to see it happen.
Once when's his pro day. Are we getting a workout?
It's a good question. You should just pull this one
off. I've run a five, flat three-cone
Deuce. That's what we need out of you.
They're two fastest three, come in human history.
He's got an airplane their Pro Day, their Pro Day is next
Friday. All right.
Mark it on, your calendar is, what time is it?
During ATP? Chasing, it's at 3:00.
So, no, it'll be, it'll just get ill.
Just get done it. Should we move the show?
Should we go? See we go?
I haven't been. I haven't been that.
To my college. Like, since I graduate her know,
I've been back once. We could do, we could do, we
could do all K-State trip and go.
Hang, let's do it at all. My old haunts, we can go see my
old College, a house. How big is the the corporate
budget 480p chasing to? They allocate some try funds.
We got. Yeah, we got to get, we got to
get on the horn. We got to get on the horn to mr.
Overs, that and we'll see if we can get legendary upside as
sponsor this thing I, for sure, I for sure can like, I will have
couches to crash on though. No doubt about it.
So we can take the housing budget.
This does seem like kind of like a bucket list item here.
Aston Martin. How many retweets and faves?
A picture of me, you and do svan the book for the engagement
that's already in you and Vaughn Davis.
He's out. He's like an inch taller than
me. Probably me and do svant me and
do stuff on doing the short shuttle at the same time and we
do we do a little side by side. We need to find out who he
signed with his agent. Let's go.
I know, I bet I could lie. I bet I can figure this stuff
out. I can we get let's let's do
this. Let's get.
Do spawn on at least. One episode of ATP.
Chasing this off season. I bet we can I honestly got, I
bet we can. Yeah, we might have to fudge the
numbers. So he looks like the biggest
Riser maybe as a come on the show but that'd be great.
The biggest riser in our hearts, this.
Yeah, let's that's not before I move on to followers.
I want to talk Brandin Cooks. I think this is like potentially
the most interesting water. See.
Remove the offseason besides DJ more to the Bears.
Yeah. Curious what you guys think
about going around pick 90? Now I I still think that's like
quite good considering the other wide receivers in that range,
but yeah, is easy to old. Are we worried about sort of him
falling off with the Texans? Potentially, what do we think
there? I just am worried about like I
guess the thing with cook says, he's just done this so many
times. He's been traded four times and
pretty much has always been good in the new spot.
I think the thing you worry about is that clearly CD is
better than him and he might just like, what, what isn't
there? Just a chance that Gallup is a
little bit better, two years from room from the ACL.
And now, Brandon Cooks is just basically Marquez Valdez
scantling on the Dallas Cowboys. There's a chance of that but he
hasn't fallen off that dramatically.
I think he says what was his yards per outrun stuff like last
year? It was like one point four to
one point five ish range I think up top of my head.
Yeah so I will also throw out there that Matt Harmon at
reception perception actually says that like by his charting
Brandin Cooks is not falling off at all.
And actually his last couple years with the Texans, he's been
like better at success rate versus man.
That's been hidden in like yards.
Around, because he's been with, you know, fucking Davis Mills
and garbage. He also was, but he also was
better than I gave him credit for 1.64, which is not great,
but it's not like concerning and he was 1.96 two years ago which
is actually extremely good. Give me his plan with David
smells. Yeah, I think your scenario is
possible though. Davis like I think people are
maybe sleeping a little bit on Gallop just because they CL
stuff. Can sometimes take two years for
guys to bounce back but I still think like the Cowboys in
general, like Seemed a little too cheap and I think like they
should have to pass catchers going in the top 80 picks.
Probably, I don't know, maybe not with McCarthy.
But I'm I also think you want to think about this in the terms,
in terms of like the larger positional prices and there are
not a lot of wide receivers left to pick 89.
Yeah you know this is this is a big thing.
Yeah, so I think he's a good pick there still and you know if
we're talking about About draft landscape, post NFL draft, where
or whatever running backs, just start going higher, you know,
sometime in July or August. This price would translate to
like maybe more like, pick one hundred, you know what I mean?
So I think he's a pretty good. Pretty good pick still.
Okay, here's a question. Just let's say like, is CD being
out good or bad for Cooks though.
Like like is he a guy who gains contingent value?
What is he actually, I can't I can't decide.
I mean also part of it. Yeah, I'll go grab it is.
I don't know what the Cowboys are going to look like without
Kellen Moore. Like like these two guys who are
in charge of the Cowboys this year are like architects of some
of the worst offense, as we've seen with with good,
quarterbacks right Schottenheimer and McCarthy have
been run out of town by Hall of Fame level Court.
Like Brian Schottenheimer was the Jacksonville Jaguars 2021
offensive coordinator Lucky's then He's been so bad.
Yeah, but in some ways, I wonder if that makes CD a little bit
riskier because yeah, he's really expensive.
And the whole thing with McCarthy and Schottenheimer is
that their offenses are basically like, all right, go do
your thing, man. Like they don't scheme anything,
it's like go win. But like Crooks is someone
actually feel pretty good about doing that.
He's been in terrible offense, he's been in a million different
offenses. He's always succeeded
reasonably, well, no matter where he's been like, I actually
a.m. I'm confident that if you just
like, have him go run the routes.
They like him to run. He'll do good on those routes
will get open enough. So especially with lamb being
there to help that. I think, you know, we've also
seen him be a Target hog. When there's not anyone else to
throw to we've seen him operate along will Fuller and be a good
secondary option. So I feel like kind of both
paths are are viable. If it's lamb or get hurt, he'd
have a lot of value, I think. If Lambs there, he can be a
solid wide receiver to on that team.
All right. That seems about swear.
Let's talk followers for so the largest fallers over the past
week, we again have similar names.
Here case, Shawn bouder, Lamar Jackson, Austin Eckler, and Joe
Borough appear in the list for the second week in a row.
And then guys like Swift, Daniel Bellinger with Waller signing,
on the Giants. Zeke obviously got caught Sam,
Howell assume, that's percent related, PR Strong James
Robinson related. As I have a kenzi.com.
But that rounds out the fallers here for the past week, I want
to have a bit of the quarterback discussion with you guys this
week. It seems like the early
quarterback drafters are capitulating a little bit.
Totally totally what's happening.
Yeah, we saw the homeless last week burrow and Jackson are for
the second week in a row. Yeah.
Is this, is this second round quarterback?
Meta gonna gonna die by the time best of all?
All Mania for comes out. It's gonna it's gonna be, is
going to be it's going to be big once once the Casual that will
not even the Casual is because you got to be pretty sick to be
drafting best Ball Mania three teams in May.
But the even, when even when the, the less true djn mentally
ill, people get drafting, I think, I think we're going to
see the quarterbacks continue to fall.
I do love this, like, categorization of the best ball
to generative like met people like yeah.
Yeah, but you still love Go out to dinner and stuff people.
Occasionally it's like you're not at the level sicko drafting
today. March March March drafters
haven't touched grass since they don't remember.
They don't even say they have no idea.
Yeah yeah, yeah. I think, I think it will
definitely change, but I guess it's sort of like, does it does
it matter because you know, this tournaments going to close and
these atp's will be what they are and you know, then they'll
be different ATP. These and you could be someone
that you're acting quarterback early now and then, you know, in
that other environment be someone who's waiting longer,
but I do feel like this is sort of the worst time to capitulate
because like, Richardson is now expensive.
I feel I feel worse about waiting at quarterback than I
did early in the offseason. Like I was not drafting any of
these really pricey quarterbacks to begin Big Board drafts
because I was just like, I'll take 3 and draft Richardson or,
you know, I'll I'll tackle and Bryce young or whatever, like I
kind of Bright Young was a little more inexpensive as well,
I think but now I've actually mixed them in a little bit
because I'm not as confident that I can figure out
quarterback later. So I've kind of gone the other
way. I am occasionally drafting some
of these Sacramento. Quarterbacks now Yeah, at this
point like they're not going to drop like anyone's either
getting them in the late. Second, early third.
And is that really like a difference?
I would say not really like you're just kind of flipping
like instead of taking you know Josh Jacobson the third and
Mahomes and the second you're taking Josh, a Cubs in the
second homes in the third or whatever player you want it.
So I wanted in there right? Like I'm skeptical it matters
that much if that's the only drop or seeing so I'm kind of
with you Pat that I'm fine. And just because now I know
like, oh, I'm not getting Bamboozled by like stupid like
early prices for them, like I'm pretty confident.
We're getting the same ish prices throughout the entire Big
Board. Like at this point if you want
to take the high ceiling, quarterbacks, I'm fine with it.
If it's, if it's tactile, yeah. I don't know.
Dona Paula take. So I did, I did a couple drafts
this week and I just like intuitively felt the expensive
quarterback. Prices were like insane.
Like, every time I was on the clock and I saw like Mahomes
herds, I was just like, I can't, I can't click these.
I whereas, whereas the maybe previously in the past, you
know, sort of the the pick 60 through pick 80, guys, I would
have been, like, that's the worst range to draft a
quarterback, you know. You're sort of like overpaying
for the security of just knowing they have a job for 16 weeks,
like, like Trevor. Lawrence to me, feels like a
really good pocket of the draft where there's not, anyone I'm
absolutely begging to take their so that one that one was was
interesting. Do we think Elijah more will be
on the biggest risers next week, huh?
Yeah, probably right. Well, though, he was always a
little expensive, so, I don't know, well, maybe now it, now,
it just feels like he's not a terrible pick, it just depends
on it. Depends on where Leone ranks
him, right? I mean, at the end of the day,
they get some Insider info on gonna be.
It's the end. Leone and see if.
Okay, this is gonna run right now.
Elijah more is the wide receiver 52.
I'll pull up e TR and see where he's ranked right now.
I bet I Betty I bet it's oh no because Lea he's too young
Leone. Might not Leone might not be
into the 23 year old wide receiver.
Plus you do have to split up targets between in Joe code on
the people's Jones Cooper and more.
So I bet he's lower than that. Okay, yeah.
See. He's only asking.
So this news has been out for what, three, three days.
Now, two days. Gotta forget and he's only, he's
up one spot over the past week, so maybe there's like a lag and
he's going to rise a little more but I kind of think the market
is treating this as like equivalent situation.
I think like, in both situations, you had sort of a
clear Alpha like Amari Cooper and Garrett Wilson, obviously
Wilson's better than Cooper. But, you know, sort of, sort, of
clear, Target owners and their teams and then you have like,
secondary guys that are gonna kind of get in the way for
various reasons, Allen Lazard. Because are Rogers loves him and
then Donovan people's Jones because I think he's good at
what he does running like deep clear out route.
So I don't know I guess like does this a lot more see snaps
and to wide receiver sets that up.
That's what I'm trying to think through like probably.
But I'm really not sure that I don't think so.
But I bet they run a decent amount of three.
So maybe it doesn't matter if it's on, he's a good.
He's going to be behind tpj into.
We have a matters for the TD, TD stuff and yeah, it's a ton of
Touchdowns. Yeah.
What would you project his route right to be like, probably like
75 or 80%? Like no, I see.
That's the thing though. Is maybe he only plays 65% of
the staffs but I bet his route rates really good.
You do. Okay.
Okay weakness because Cleveland is such a you know got to run
the dang ball, Nick Chubb type but you know they're just going
to just going to be Harrison Bryant you know how they talk in
Cleveland? No I don't even that's a good.
I don't have no idea what's to face sounds like But to me,
that's what anyone who's ever coach.
Nick Chubb has to have like a really, really to over rot
southern accent basically. Lets you meet Nick Chubb, you
turn to Foghorn Leghorn, right? I mean, I my general thought
would just be is like that. Just all feels like window
dressing because either it's Elijah.
More is actually, as good as we always thought he was.
And now, he doesn't have a coach and a quarterback awaits him, or
he does, or he's not that good, right?
I just Think like at a wide receiver 52 Brides.
I think, you're really, it's actually what we just talked
about with Penny earlier. Like, there's no way.
Elijah more finish his wide receiver 52.
It's either like he's wide receiver, 29 or like, he's like,
not on the team. They just caught him or
something, you know. Yeah.
Like maybe is it got a bad attitude?
Yeah, I think he has a little bit of like contingent upside
because I kind of agree with with you bad that I would not
reject him to play in three wide receiver to wide receiver sets.
But I Like he if you believe what he did it as a rookie, I
think he showed he like Ken when verse Man coverage, I know the
people who charged him sort of showed that.
So like I think pick 110, you know, doesn't project with three
wide receiver sets, but he's not appear slot, he could do it.
If it was called upon, I think it's like a fine price.
I'm not super pumped about it, but if I took DeShaun Watson,
like I make it somewhat of a priority to get more, I think
there's enough enough upside there.
Are you taking dpj or more? Probably they're right next to
each other. More more.
Come on again, or did you PJ D? PJ is team prayer yards, you
know, Yeah, I think I'm with you guys.
I think it's close. Doesn't it doesn't it feel like
also it's really more about like is this awesome counting snaps
in his head? Yeah isn't it isn't it also kind
of more like is DeShaun Watson just going to be total ass again
or is he going to be good? You know that that also feels
like a huge part of it. DB Japanese good if Watson's
good one path to that you know to him kind of taking that step
and feel more comfortable. Is that more is also good.
They feel more plausibly like really positively correlated
than him and DP'd or more. I mean more 11 personnel.
Instead of 12 Personnel. Should also theoretically help
too because like 12-person I was asking your quarterback to do a
lot because no one's taking no, really, no one's take.
No one's taking chub seriously as a receiver, and no one's
taking her son, Brian, seriously, the receiver, right?
The Cleveland stack is kind of kind of interesting like you
could get to Sean and joke. You pick your poison more verse
tpj all. It's a really easy stack 8, 10
and 11 and like that feels like pretty good upside for the cost
to be honest. I hate saying exotic snack.
I've fucking hate drafting DeShaun Watson I have for the
past couple years but it's it's probably smart.
I agree. What can you do?
Okay, the rest of these Dusty
veterans. I don't really want to talk
about. We've already had the Swift
discussion. Why don't we move on to the
stacks and less last chance here.
If you guys want to talk about Daniel Bellinger, something like
that. Otherwise, let's move on.
It's actually, actually, I got one.
Shouldn't we be buying the dip on Zeke?
Buying the dip here on Zeke a little Because whatever team
signs hims going to give him the ball.
Like this is, this is a crane. You know, what this is?
This is a fucking 2024, net situation.
Not not not typically is not to the not to the same extent
because I think Zeke has so little juice and fournette.
Clearly at least had juice left, as a rusher.
But like he's going to sign to one of these teams and get 40
catches 180 rushes and 10, touchdowns like it just it's
just going to happen when I would say if.
You mean compared to the for net situation, for that actually was
not a good pick in 2020, he ended up being a really good
pick in 2021, right? Once he's there for the year but
member it was playoff Lenny. He didn't do anything really
until the write-offs. Yeah so that's right.
I think that you know maybe you could you could see that type of
situation where he goes, there he goes.
We're behind a guy you know and it's kind of like it's just he
just kind of makes it gross. He doesn't actually pay off
anything really. He just like destroy someone
else's value but I think that Let me throw out a hypothetical
because the bangle is Ron. His final list of teams, my
making that up. I think they well, that was the
other thing. That's, I think sort of red
flag, right? He puts out this list of teams
and it's like, you know, the three, the three finalists for
Zeke and it like then the reports came out like these like
the eagles are like yeah we've not talked to him.
Like the the finalists are. He's saying they're the
finalists like it's it's the eighth.
The agents are saying that to get him some money, I think.
Yeah, that is that is a red flag.
I'm just putting it out there to get him a job.
Okay, butbut how much, okay, Ezekiel Elliott in the Joe mix
and roll. Joe Mixon gets caught how much
worse is Zeke than Joe Mixon? A lot worse, really?
Yeah, I wouldn't say a lot worse.
Well, is that a mix and take receipt a big weight as Nick's
intake? It's like Nixon makes that I
think was had a lot of juice things like 24, but he's
Mix-ins. 28, no. See that old babies?
No babies. Not that old you don't if you
gotta add. Yeah.
Added two years, he does turns
17 inch. That's, that's what I do.
That's so, so whatever I say it is a just got it.
No, it's a guy. I don't like it's two years
older than he actually only only a year plus.
So Leonard Leonard fournette. Is is 32 you know?
It's like it's like by that math.
Yeah. Easily.
My babies 44 me. Yeah.
I guess I would I think it feels like we're timing the, the
bottom a little bit if you take Zeke now, like, is it going to
fall this much farther? I don't know.
Like, I guess it depends how much you care about getting
exposure to seek this year. If you want, if you want
exposure, think you draft and now because I think he probably
goes up a little bit but we'll see.
And I guess the thing that you have they out you have was Zeke
is that he was playing through injury and he doesn't.
He's not as Dusty. As he looked that's an argument
for what, like, four years in a row for him, it is fun.
I mean, maybe this time it'll work, you know, and at this
price, like if he's just not complete dust and then he lands
somewhere. You know what, he could land
like if he lands with the Chargers or whatever, if he
lands with the Chiefs, you know, are The Bangles or whatever,
like, there are spots where it's not, it's not that bad and pick
150. I mean, I don't know.
There are other guys that I like, they're more than Zeke
still. I wish he'd follow a little
further. I guess like, I want Elijah
Mitchell. Still over Zeke.
I want. I think.
I want Damien Harris. Still over Zeke.
Those guys are now gone slowly. So, let me Damien Damien,
Harris. Damien Harris is an absolute
Jam. Damien.
Harris is like a, you should take him like, we're Penny's
going really? So I don't, I mean, aren't you
worried at all about? Like Josh down stealing goal
line work and then him getting boxed out of receiving work and
now he's like just kind of the Trap Back.
And put the Trap back on the third best offense and the NFL
probably should go higher than 150.
Right? Yeah.
No. Yeah, that's fair.
If you settle like, I think will probably settle in the
Singletary. Like 101.
That's all it's like I would draft Damien, Harris.
I accept accept, Amy Harris is probably better than don't
Singletary. Who's like, every one of the
least athletic running backs we've ever seen Damien Harris
had a lot of like long Breakaway runs in the past like two years
ago when he led the NFL in rushing TDS.
He's not a super fast guy but he has way more than Singletary
doesn't open field in terms of taking you know a 10-yard run
and making it a 50-yard run. He can, he can do that a little
bit. Yeah, I'm with that.
All right, let's let's talk Stacks here.
So this is the same chart we've showed for the past couple
weeks. This chart is a little tough to
digest. So I'll try to break it down a
little bit better than I have previously.
So this is the gray bars here. I did call this chart out last
week. Yeah, it's yeah.
I totally sometimes I make a chart and I'm like, it makes
total sense to me but no one else has actually done the work
to make the shirt. So it's super confusing to
everyone else. So if you look at per second,
Does make sense. You just need to digest it a
little? Yeah, I think the best way to
read it is the gray bars are sort of the price of the stack.
That's the average of the double stack ATP.
So the quarterback and the top to pass catchers.
So that's sorted. Left to right from the most
expensive Stacks to the cheapest stack.
So, Philly Bangles in the far left side.
New England Carolina far right side, the the colored bars are
the positions that make up the double stack.
So the purple bars are Quarterbacks and the red and
yellow bars are the, the pass catchers.
So you can see the average prices and you can also see
like, oh, if I look at Kansas City, I can see that, you know,
Kelsey's way up in the first round.
That's the Red Bar, the purple bars Mahomes like mid third
round and then that third bar is Tony the second pass catcher at
pick 180 or whatever or sorry I picked 80 so that's sort of the
way to read the chart. The changes I made this week is
to sort of Fairly compare Are some of these teams that are
going to draft a rookie quarterback.
I just plugged in the chalk, Landing spots for those teams.
So I put CJ Stroud on the Panthers.
I put Bryce Young on the Texans and I put Anthony Richardson on
the Colts. I didn't assign will love us
anywhere because he's being drafted.
So late that it wouldn't affect the chart.
I don't think. And I also assigned Aaron
Rodgers to to the Jets here. So that makes those teams a
little more comparable. What I want to talk about is You
go to the far right side of this chart, and look at the cheapest
Stacks. You got Carolina, Houston and
Indianapolis all extremely cheap, all teams that were
expecting the draft rookie quarterbacks my kind of take
away from this is like I think there's a lot of upside in those
three teams because their rookie, quarterbacks are very
cheap because they're pass, catchers are very cheap.
And, you know, especially Stroud and Young have upside of being
really good NFL pastors. You know, maybe not in your one,
but that's sort of what they've Project as so I'm pretty excited
you know the pass catchers are gross to click on but like
Houston Carolina. If you kind of like get box out
of stacks early on, I love the the Houston Carolina Stroud you
know Bryce young Stacks, you can build out of the drafts I think
it's a lot of upside at like zero cost right now.
So yeah Pat what do you think about that?
Some of the stacking up some of the rookie quarterback likely
teams. I like it.
It's something I've been doing I like both of those Well, I like
the Texans pass-catching clicks more.
I wrote a post on the legendary upside about Nico Collins, that
one's for free. Go check that out.
I think John Mitch, he's somewhat interesting.
I think they'll probably draft over.
Have an update on him. Is this, is there, is there like
an update on like as he going to play football?
I thought he was playing football.
Is he didn't? He.
I haven't heard anything to be honest.
Like, I all I know about John Medici.
Is that 11 months ago? They said he's got cancer, he's
not playing football. That's all I know.
Oh, I had heard some pretty positive stuff in terms of his
recovery but I guess I don't 100% know that he's playing
football this year. I'm not I did I didn't mean I
didn't mean that to I didn't mean that to so discontent.
I literally did I didn't actually know Yeah, there's been
some reports a couple weeks ago that are positive but not saying
anything definitive like say yeah, steadily recovering.
I think it's kind of a wait a wait and see with them right
now. Sure.
Well, I've drafted more Nico columns, which is good, which is
good. But I also think there probably
drafting somebody, so, you know, you're going to mix in, you
know, some of these other rookies, you might end up with a
stack. Their the Carolina one's a
little bit less fun. I don't really like taking out,
I'm feeling I've taken some tears, Marshall, just because I
feel like he's probably going to have some routes and of take
it's a biscuit for the lulz. Yeah.
Are you aware? They signed DJ shark today?
Did they? Man, literally literally as we
got on the air, I was not heads a bummer for shark as well.
Is it? I mean, I feel like it's the
same. I feel like it's the same
thesis, we were just floating for the Texans, which is if CJ
Stroud is quite good. Or brightest young is quite
good, then the whole ceiling right now.
Obviously, if it's Andy Dalton, it's or a shitty rookie, then
it, then you're looking at, you know, deante Johnson of 2022.
Well, if he's going where those guys are going, I'll draft him
for sure, but if he's, I think he, you know, he had more upside
Landing with a better quarterback.
Yeah, sure. I think that's fine.
That's fair. Yeah, I guess I don't like it
from like his closing line value but I do like it.
It from like I don't think the markets gonna shoot up, DJ
torque force on any Carolina. They didn't really react at onto
thielen signing signing like a little bit, but not crazily.
I can't even see him falling right because there could have
been the assumption that shark went to one of these good teams.
Yeah, like the the Stroud shark he didn't her stack that you can
get at pics like you know, 13th round 16th round, 15th round,
whatever. Whatever it might be like.
I kind of like that upside in one of the playoff weeks and
best of all, if you just like, need a cheap stack to go off
when you know, your Raven stack as a down week and you need them
to advance or something like that.
I think it's like I think it's pretty interesting cost adjusted
even though it's not the most interesting players.
Well, okay, let me just share this because I was looking up
the the John matchy stuff this from Nicosia Rio.
In January. I'd say there's a chance that
he'll be ready for the start of the offseason program.
I think there are still some things that he has to complete
or go through quite frankly. It's amazing what he's done to
this point. He actually looks better now
than he did when we drafted him in the spring, he's improved his
strength. He's improved, his lower body
strength is attitude has been great even though he's Been
dealing with a lot of things medically.
So, so that sounds that sounds like he's gonna play.
Sounds like it's gonna play. Yep.
Okay. That's good.
The other thing I wanted to go ahead Pat.
Well I'd so this jerk stuff. So are we are you out on
Marshall? Because now there's like what
does it feel? Because he's I'm out on Marshall
because he stinks and their DJ sharks.
Probably way better than him. If you were probably in him.
Stinking is a problem. I'll grant you that.
What like what? Like what what is the what is
the sample of Tears? Marshalls career where he was
good. It was like it was like one year
when he was playing him, you're not sure he was split and
DraftKings and what wasn't it? Just all volume-based.
So I guess maybe you could argue that even getting the volume
with something. So I'm shooting from the hip a
little bit, these numbers. But I think like his yards for
out round last year, was 1.3 ish.
And DJ Morris, was like .5, his 1.5, and he did more, it was not
that much higher than that. So, like, if you're gonna paint
the absolute bull case, it's like, He was somewhat comparable
to DJ more last year from the efficiency standpoint.
Like I wouldn't go there. I like that thing.
That's a little bit of a stretch but you could squint and see
that picture. I think, well, I think his path.
The plank I'm goes through Adam thielen who had one point zero
eight yards, per hour on playing with Kirk Cousins, when you're
their living on thin, you're living on Fantasy Island.
If you think that is, Adam thielen, the biggest Marquee
free agent to sign with the Carolina Panthers like What can
you do Marquis? No people.
No. Adam thielen is named.
Adam thielen. Adam film is well, known NFL
name? Give me 35 dude.
They gave him do they gave 39 year-old Adam feeling like 25
million dollars like probably the cheapest in the real seven
years old, 43 year old Adam thielen.
Other teams were probably like, will give you the veteran
minimum for one year and the Panthers were like we Cannot
send a rookie quarterback to war with shy Smith and the viscous
Channel. You could name your price dude,
name your price to come here and we will pay it In reality, he's
turning 33 in August of the still.
I was hoping I was hoping we could avoid actually saying his
real age. I thought it was just part of
the ad two years bed. I didn't even know he's legit,
he is, he is actually is actually old as hell. 14 million
guaranteed for Adam thielen. Like, that's the worst contract
in the offseason, right? I don't think you can be dropped
an atom dealing with with shark signing their like, but the
thesis that you had for thielen, now, just goes to Charcoal.
Like he's the guy that will have a chance to emerge as like a
true Alpha there. I think Yeah and I think Terris
unless interested like 20th round Terrace Marshall sure but
like his path now to being on the field and to wide receiver
sets. Isn't that clear?
And also like his talent is not that clear so that just seems
like what are we doing? I guess I like shark.
I like charcoal and I think Hayden Hurst is like pretty
locked in for a good tight end role there and it's gross like
he's not that good but it's a gross position.
He's going to be running routes, he's going to be out there.
I'll be Careful with Hayden Hurst.
Who remember with the Colts? These guys rotated.
Their tight ends non-stop so and hearse is not good.
Okay. Yeah, that's true.
They could dress if but if they don't draft one of these top
guys, I don't know who else is there you and Thomas?
Like I guess my point is like as of right now it looks good.
But but you're right, they can easily add someone the draft, I
mean, but they were playing like Jack Doyle and who's the caelum
granson? Like they were just like they'll
find guys to rotate, I don't I'm very we don't we don't feel
great about the quarterback play.
They'll literally every week about the play tends to rotate.
Yeah, I think hearse is a trap. All right, I agree.
I agree. It's a trap Counterpoint 2013,
13 million guarantee that signing fraida nursed.
That's, that's the only Counterpoint, but I don't wanna
but all I wanna. But again, I mean, crane is
crane is the king of making this point tight ends, can get paid
for a lot of reasons, tight end, like you just, you know, it's
hard position to play. It does not always translate
into what we wanted for fantasy. Yeah, I mean again, like I agree
with the rotation point. The bangle is kind of like, had
a rotation at tight end for a lot of years and then Hearst
plays there last year and he's the guy, I think some NFL teams
view him as like the time, then you can give 80% snap ready to.
We'll see if it works out Carolina.
You dummies a lot of snaps for them, he just didn't he just
wasn't good. Yeah.
But they they had a role that he stepped into it was just he was
just as he is. Ian Thomas still on the team.
I don't know, he might not be because in class here was his
fourth year. I mean that's that's definitely
no no I think he's a little older so he resided.
Yeah, he's he's locked in actually, he's got it's not
locked in, they could cut him but he's humming.
I mean turnable Tommy tremble. In the end time is here to shit
all over Sams, Sams had no Tommy tremble.
Tommy tremble, is exactly the type of guy they will rotate in
it needs you might as well call him.
You might We'll call them Kyla Woods you know he literally he's
literally you know gilani granson like that dude he's
there. He's there to play any grants
them. It's so good.
He's there to play 27% of the snaps run just enough routes
that you have to like like think about a minimum salary, every
weekend DFS. And he gets six catches all
year. Yeah, the cold stuff was so
triggering last year on statues and we were tracking the tight
end, snaps and routes. And was like, oh, Wow, like Moe,
Ali Cox had a huge role this week, like maybe you should
consider adding him next week. Like he played the complete a
it's because it's completely random.
Yeah, they do a lot of bullshit. So but that's that's like pretty
consistent. It's obviously, you know, if
they had like Gronk, they'd stop doing that.
But like, coaches have kind of systems that way.
And I I would just assume my assumption would be that they
will continue doing that stuff. And havenhurst is not like the
level of talent where they would change.
Yeah, like Phil Jackson, Phil Jackson signed the shittiest
dumbest. Point guards he could for like
30 years because he just was trying to replicate having
Michael Jordan like that. This is this and with like
that's the same same Vibe fair enough.
I mean, he's versus Derek Fisher.
He's up pick to right now. He's a pic 200 right now.
So like if you're finding tight ends in that range that are
guaranteed for huge rolls. Let me know.
I haven't found anyone passed their that federally projects
for that contingent value. If Tommy tremble gets injured
though, I mean Chris Chris man hurts is gone.
Right Chris man inside somewhere else.
Yeah. Obvious Rumble God.
We're sick. What do we got?
Oh, I just I again I again wanted to I wanted to bring this
up on Tampa Bay because again, I need to continue to push the
baker Mayfield thing, but I just I've not heard a single person
in the fantasy world talk about this what happens to Buccaneers
pass catchers, if one of God winner Evans gets traded.
I have I have I have that thought in a draft and it led me
to select my Kevin's because I was like he gets traded or
Godwin gets traded and like Baker maybe he just dials into
Mike Evans and runs around a Chuck's a deep like I could see
it. Yeah.
Yeah II mean Baker Evans is probably the better fit for
Baker because he's like, you know, he's not like a technician
type like you got to hit him over the middle like that was
the deal. When Odell's dad made the video
is like Odell still running all these good routes and Baker just
not for owing to him, right? Yeah.
That's that's why I like Evans more.
Because if he's with Baker, he can probably survive at work.
God when I'm like, terrified of a baker offense and God.
One. And then obviously, if either
guy gets traded, you're pretty excited.
So I don't necessarily know who depend on landing spot.
Obviously, at that point. So I don't know that, like
Evans, Our God one has like a better chance of getting traded.
Where would you say maybe Evans contract was probably has a
slightly better chance. I was gonna say cuz Evans has
just one year left on his contract, right?
Whereas I think God, I think God when signed an extension so it's
easier for Evans to renegotiate. And clearly there's lots of
thirst out there for World wide receivers because we keep
getting hit over the head with these DeAndre Hopkins.
Trade request story. So there's there's clearly a
thirst out there. Would you trade for?
Like, I think I would rather trade for a year of Mike Evans
because you probably not even having to give up that much then
Hopkins. No no.
Because Hopkins is so good. Mike Evans is very good.
He's never not had 1,000-yard season.
I'm a little, I'm a little worried that Evans has regressed
in the skill Department. Whereas Hopkins didn't really
show any skill regression last year.
Although he did years ago, he did two years ago, yeah.
Yeah. And I think Evans offers you
some more down fit like Evans what he offers you deep down
field is probably been covered up a little bit by Tom Brady my
childhood, my Tom's arm 14 .18. I last year like he's still the
same Mike Evans but it's just that Tom Brady wasn't really
throwing it deep all that much. I could buy that.
Yeah, I think that's reasonable Evans has one year left, but
it's 21 million and dead money. If he's Cut.
So does that also mean that like even if he's traded that money
is on their books, unless another team would be used to
like, hey, that I'm so done trying to understand the NFL
rules for all this shit, to be honest with you, it's like it
feels like it's so arbitrary. You have doesn't trade rules.
I'm lost on the trails. I understand what happens if you
cut the guy and there's dead money.
But once you trade guys, it seems to all go bad.
If there's not a calm on over the cap for what happens if he
gets traded. Then I then I don't understand
what any shouldn't there. Be Jason, what's up, man?
We don't get the hot, we need some help.
Let's unless I think we've moved past the, the team stuff.
For now, we've hit on a lot of teams.
I want to show the positional stuff quickly to round out the
charts this week. We do have the running back 32
fours. Moving up kind of noticeably
this week, I think that's a lot of the free agents that we just
talk through. I think they were artificially
cheap because people didn't know where these guys are going to
get signed. But we did see sort of like that
second grouping of running backs.
Move up this past week and wide receivers continue to move up
every single week. Trying to figure out who did
this. But why not this one album?
Guys, I have her running backs. It's terrible, it's terrible.
Yeah. Don't you, do you think there
will be a bit of a reversal for this, though?
Not before the Big Board ends? No, no, no.
I agree. I agree with that.
But, yes, I do think that in July and August, it will not be
like this. Yeah, and if you look at like, I
think Hayden made the point better than I can make it but
like the running backs I kind of see why they're falling because
it's a ton of older guys. It's a lot of guys like in
situations that don't feel good or like unpredictable
situations, but running backs are still gonna score points in
fantasy this year. I don't think the NFL is like,
legislated them out of the game as far as I know.
So yeah, I don't know. There's gonna be Good values can
hated basically called a stupid. He was like he was like he was
like, basically you guys are drafting these these dipshit
wide receivers who have no upside, no contingent value.
You're just dropping them to draft them and you got your
fundamentally misunderstanding that yeah.
Running backs are going to project for Less points and
they're they're a little bit less.
They're actually just as volatile because their
projection changes, so much with injury, you know, whoever the
whoever the fifth running back on the Denver Broncos.
Causes could be who you need in the fantasy football.
Playoffs have enough, dudes, just get leveled off by
injuries. You know, you don't have to be
drafted and best ball but well okay Michael Carter on the Jets.
He what's he doing? What's he right now?
Like 200 ATP overall, something like that.
Yeah, even lower 240. Probably I don't.
Ya Mike, Mike, Mike Michael Carr.
You I don't even have to squint that hard for like, oh briefs
hamstring right when he comes back.
He's not ready. Whoever they drop suck.
Or they sign Z. Like I don't even I don't even
have to work that hard just to see Michael Carter is the guy
you need in week 17? Yeah.
But I think the yeah, there's some definitely some ways to
play it where you're drafting running backs like earlier than
I tend to and I'm drafting a lot of.
I'm drafting more running backs early in this environment than I
otherwise would because I'm getting values.
But I don't let love about you even sang.
Take them late. Oh, he's saying take him to the
end of drafts. He was, he was Remember what he
was saying was like the ship Chasers do these, these nine
wide receiver builds and then they never get a contributed
point and they leave. All these contingent value
running backs. Like how, like, how, how, many
leaks was, semaj perine taken and best Ball Mania, three last
year. Like something like keeps
draftin, like, 25%, or something like that, that type of guy
should be 100%, drafted type guy, that's fair.
I actually do think that this draft environment makes your
running back like harder to To pull off because you're, you're
passing on like some awesome running back values.
I think in like yeah two and three that are guys who were
typically, especially round three, I think round three is
loaded with guys who I'm used to having to take in the second
round. That profile feels like a second
round running back profile by the market that I'm getting in
round 3 and so I'm having trouble passing on those guys
and then like to hate and hate his ideas.
Like maybe you only grab one Or you grab zero guys and then you
stopped taking wide receiver, you know, after like six or
seven instead of going to like eight or nine, Liam is Leah.
Murphy is also talked about this idea, which I think is
interesting. But I've, I'm actually more
going like, you know, two running backs in the first six
rounds because I think it's like way more viable than it usually
feels like it is. Yeah, I think those are both
viable. But yeah, I do think like the,
the wide receiver. Volatility thing is something
that a couple years. Ago was like a little overplayed
and I think in half PPR, it's actually not true.
That wide receivers are the more volatile position than running
back? I think that was idea, you need
a bunch of water. Severs are going to ping, pong
weeks, need a bunch bum. I think, PPR definitely true
happy, PR hidden Sons to work the past couple years that that
volatility case is not really. There are four wide receivers
running back. So I do really like the idea
that hidden has of like the same way we think about, you know,
you get to Anchored running backs, you probably Lee just
need 45. Like if you start, you know,
Cooper cup, Chris olave Debo Samuel or whatever, like hold
off on the wide receivers. Like those guys, well, I
wouldn't hold off at that point. I would take I would take, you
know, three more and then maybe you're done sure that's what I
mean. Like, hold off on the, on the
total quantity. Like I've seen a lot of people,
they start like super water, super heavy and they still have
like nine wide receivers like I would not 100% is diminishing.
Return was right? Yeah, that's what it is.
Yeah. And I think one way to think
about this, he also made another good point about the scoring,
you know, like 36, what like like Justin Jefferson's 11
points in a bad week or still probably making your lineup
because of the way the scoring works, you know, they're more
wide receiver points are required.
Whereas, like, if you have three high-scoring running backs, like
maybe the nine points that Zeke gets Isn't isn't making it into
you're actually gaining points by losing the roster spot.
If that maybe I'm not, I don't think I explained that the way.
Hey, I see what you're saying. He's much smarter than me but
like the the added value of higher running back points is
more because of the way the roster spots shake out.
I think it's the way you explained it.
I don't know. Maybe I'm a dumbass and I
misunderstood him. Yeah, well now I'm confused.
Well I so I think I think with argument is and Beach maybe some
have him back on the show to explain this to us but we need
we need Jason Fitzgerald and Hayden on the show, tell us tell
us how this works. Essentially you're going to
start three wide receivers probably more in the flag so
that means the replacement level wide receiver is anything from
the water seabird. 36. The wide receiver 48.
So that's a lot of what this is. A lot of water.
This is yes, right. This is owed.
Justin Jefferson's eight, sir. Nine point.
I think Hayden's threshold for the replacement level wide
receivers only like eight points.
That's just a shit ton of wide receiver.
So you may be like Justin Jefferson's nine points like I
wish I had someone else, like that's not going to matter for
me that actually like counts in your life ever.
He needs to do last to slot into your lineup.
Yes. And that actually makes them
less volatile but it makes sense.
It makes that Elite receiver even more valuable because he's
hitting your lineup even in his bad weeks and then He's crushing
it for you in his great weeks and then you need to find less
points at the running back position because you only have
two spots to fill. Yeah.
And you should check out head and hands are glad I think you
touched on this in the show last week, but he also showed that
like he counted the number of points above replacement, like
how many times does say the. Say the waters you replacement
level is 8 points per week. How many times did a wide
receiver last year get 20 points above that replacement level?
And he actually showed that relative to running backs wide
receivers are actually providing like less spikes above that
replacement level than running backs.
Are I think that was just a one year thing and like certainly
worth. I think it'd be super
interesting research to like go back 10 years of data and see
how this works. But we actually have hidden in
the chat now. Alright, so yeah.
Hopefully we didn't completely butcher your point but it is I
think we got there. I think I think we got there.
There. But we just I mean I just I just
like 80 I queued my way there and then say I'm saved me.
So tune into ATP. Chasing will be just really
brutally but Roofing Works analysis.
Will just be recapping his free Underdog articles for an hour.
There's any other research-based articles you'd like us to
Butcher and then finally. Yeah, please let us know.
Yeah. All right.
This feels like a good time to land the plane here.
Let's Let's talk our favorite values.
Pat, you want to start us off? You got a favorite favorite
value and we're also let me before Packo's.
We're we're going to put a little bit of steaks on this.
I think we agreed be a Discord. We're going to be splitting a
higher Stakes Underdog team, at some point, like one of the
Bulldogs, whatever, they'll do like a five hundred dollar one
or whatever. Yeah.
And we're going to track all these takes and whoever does the
best in terms of getting closing line value.
On these takes will be free rolled in that tournament.
Other two of us will sort of split it.
So you guys are already drawing dead though because I got two of
the best values in closing line value.
Not, what happens? Yeah, no, yeah, buddy.
We don't, we don't care. We can't control for the
results. Once the pig skin starts flying
around the yard, we can only predict what our fellow nerds
are gonna do. Yeah, we got it.
We're doing the results. Well, you the way I Patrick
right now, so I just want to say that.
All right, Pat, what do we got? Favorite value?
Well, I picked one that's not going to have much clothing line
value, but I'm still going to do it.
Still going to do it because, you know, you know what, let me
we're also doing a don't, they were doing persistence percent
increase of closing line value. So if you want to pick a guy
higher up, you can still get upside there like Pollard Rises
five spots, that could be equivalent to Penny Rising 40
spots. You know what I mean?
Davis, you got one, I can start. Yes.
Yeah, I got one, I will go with Damien.
Harris at running back 42, pick 140, overall he is going to be a
top 100 pick. By the time, it's all over.
I proposed. By the way.
If we if we get a Tim Patrick situation that it's got to be
thrown out right someone tears. Someone tears, their knee
injury. You get a pass for it.
Or guy getting it. Oh, you're guy gets injured.
I don't know man. This is football.
We'll try to do a spreadsheet exercise here.
Let's make notes, I don't want to get into exceptions because
then, like, what if I don't know, the starting running back
in a team tears ratio and then your guide launches 100 spots
because of that jerk. Okay, fair enough, fair enough,
fair enough. Let the, you know, random dot
will chips chips fall where they may.
Yeah, that's how I feel. I like I like the hairs one
though. I would cosine cosine that but I
can't take it for this exercise Pratt.
You got one. I'm just going to stick with my.
You know what? Cause I'm here to help the
people. I'm not trying to like decide
who has the paper Big Board draft.
This isn't going to get you any closing line value, most likely.
But I just think it's a very good pic fits with the
discussion we had about trying to get some late running back
upside on your roster. It's Jalen Warren.
He is highly protected. By Nagi Harris is a really good
pick, that's good. Nothing's going to happen to
this backfield, that's going to shake the shake it up.
Most likely I mean, who knows, you know, but he is, he is one
of the more protected direct handcuffs and he is a direct
handcuffed and guess what, he's better than the starter Nagi
Harris. We talk about some gross running
backs today. I don't think we've talked about
any wasn't get it doesn't get grocer.
Yeah. Ezekiel Elliott higher in Russia
has over expected per attempt, then Nagi Harris last year.
That's really incredible. Edible, it's unreal.
It's yeah. David Montgomery also better.
Dalvin cook. We talked about getting cut
better. It's like there's really not
much threat here. From Harris, has a talent, it's
just the fact that, you know, it's like a sunk cost status
quo, type of thing that he's got to overcome.
But we saw with ch last year in his third season, that's when
kind of the dam, broke on the coaches, being tied to him,
they're like, you know what? We're sick of this.
We're just letting another guy, get a shot.
And they already have that guy, they're in jail and Warren, he
played pretty well last year. They seemed pretty impressed
with them. I sometimes tackle and Jalen
Warren to Pittsburgh Stacks because I feel like if Kenny
pickets, you know, going to take a step, he needs the best guys
out on the field. It's like we're what are the
scenarios in which this Pittsburgh offense is really
crushing to me. It's it warns out there so yeah
I like him a lot. He's gonna probably stick around
this price but he will help you actually score points.
Yes. Hello, like the Warren pick a
lot. It's like the just the free
handcuffed that, for whatever reason, nobody seems to want
right now and potential upside for more.
We even saw high-class. We'll probably, I think he will
probably increase in price though.
Well, I will now I'm trying to heal.
It's good. That was good.
That was a good start. Yeah, alright I mine you as well
when with running backs. I'll go with the wide receiver a
little bit more challenging to get closing line value.
So I'm gonna, you know, since I'm already so far ahead in this
exercise, I'll take a risk here. I'm gonna go with Darius.
Slayton wide receiver, the New York Giants.
He's at pick 202 right now, he's cheaper.
And guys, like Isaiah Hodgins Rondell Robinson Paris, Campbell
the Giants are building an entire offense out of slot
receivers and Darius Layton is the only way so that lie outside
body in their Waters. Even room that's going to play
outside. I think he's pretty locked into
T wide receiver sets where as you know, good luck guessing
wandel Paris, Campbell Jamison, Crowder, Sterling.
Shepherd, good luck guessing. Who's gonna play in the slot
amongst those guys. It's a disaster.
Slade's the guy you've always wanted.
Until he breaks, right? It'll be it'll be one Dale until
he gets hurt and like week for yeah, maybe that's what I mean.
He's been like Crowder on top of everything else.
Crowder, when's the last time Jameson crowd are played in the
NFL game for real like years. Two years ago.
It's wasn't it two years ago? No.
Last year, he played a little bit.
We couple first couple weeks. He played.
Hey I barely like he's on the bed.
Yeah he played. He played on the Bells.
Last year. Yeah.
Anyways, it's a fucking mess of slot wide receivers.
I guess if you want to compare Hodgins versus Layton, maybe
Hodgins looks a little bit better and some of the, the
numbers last year, but they gave him a grand, total of zero
million dollars. Guaranteed, they gave Slayton 5
million. I'm worried Hodgins gets gets
cut at a price of 150. I don't know why you take the
risk with, with Hodgins slayton's going to be on the
team and he's a full fifty two pics later.
So I kind of like the giant stack to in terms of prize
Daniel Jones, pick 100 tack on you know slate and maybe guess
at one of us like the slot guys, at the end of your draft, and
it's a pretty pretty cheap stack that I think has some upside in
the day ball offense. So, Darius lightens my guy.
I like it. Cool.
Yeah, I like that one. Awesome.
Well, that was another another great show guys.
Pat, I know you got a lot of stuff going on for four.
Legendary upside. You got some new article out
today on Bijan. Anything else you want to talk
about there? I do.
Yeah. So on Bijan that the Bijan
sections completely free. Go sign up.
I also have sections on jamort Jameer Gibbs and Zach charbonnet
behind the pay wall. There's a 30-day trial so you
can check that out if you want. Legendary upside.com, also $30
off subscriptions right now via the early bird discount only $69
for the year. You can go that route if you
prefer as well. Yeah, awesome stuff.
And all this quickly give my perspective and legendary
offside, I love the podcast form of your articles, I'm someone
who I just don't know if it's just my attention, spans
completely collapsed last couple years.
But I really struggle to read things, even people that put out
really good work. People's whose Whose work I
really want to read. So the podcast feed for me just
getting all of that info in audio form is super awesome and
really digestible so I put a strong strong stamp of approval
on that stuff. It's awesome work.
Thank you. I am also broken.
I can only absorb things through audio so those I was just hoping
there was other people like me up there.
You guys gotta train. You guys.
Gotta train your brain, bro. If you're not, if you're not
reading your brain, is literally a trick being.
It's like it's like not working out in your 30s.
You're literally ruining your Rain.
Yeah, but what if you're atrophied to the point where now
you can't even do the thing, I am the most, I am so much more
of a broken brain than any of you guys and I still read every
single day. I don't think you are you like,
read all these like, amazing books and you have the author's
on and talk to them. I feel like you're way less
broken brain. No, dude, trust me try.
It's not, it's not pretty up there.
What I will? I need another thing to say,
though, if you are a 2X podcast listener, Which I kind of get
the feeling that Sam might be. Please tell me you're not.
No, no, I'm a very strictly 1X guy Freeman.
That's the reason you got Friedman fucking listens on like
3x. That's insane.
I mean you can't even make out all the words.
I'm 3x like that. Like literally like people talk
to passwords. Get chopped.
I can't I can't handle it man. I can't handle the idea that
people are going around. Just trying to like, download
this information and to their brains, it's like, bro.
That's literally what reading is for.
So I just get, I just get I get very triggered by the 2x 3x
podcast listeners. I'm a one point two five x guy.
I've had a stretch where I was one point five but 1.25 it feels
like someone's talking regularly.
It just kind of like pitched up its pit stop it.
The silences are crunched a Little it just like someone's
talking a little bit more. Engaged is honestly what it
sounds like, I just here's the thing.
I me personally I can't imagine like listening to like a
hardcore history episode on 1.25.
You know what I mean? That be 1.25 all day.
Like you gotta go like you get like we can't like Ford and
Carlin episodes a year and you're trying to like race
through it, man. It's like I can't, that's not
what it is. It's just that I enjoy listening
to it more because it's like Because you've at your feed your
brain, dude, you have literally you're leaving New York.
I'm used to everybody talking fast.
Come on man. Come on Fair.
I mean maybe maybe that's true. Maybe it's maybe it's a
geographic. I don't know.
Every time used to everyone and everyone in Missouri, just talks
like they've coaching Nick Chubb their entire life.
Ohio accent. That's fine.
Davis, anything anything go. Going on for you.
You want to usual stuff, Sports, great families, football
podcast, take cast i-i'm. Yes, because I feel very, I
feel, I feel extremely passionate about this, like,
like if, if anyone of my life listens to podcast too fast, I'm
like offended by it. But Dan in the comments here
pointed out, we had the exact same conversation last year.
That was with me, Davison Pete, and Ben.
This is with me Davidson Sam. It's a completely different
thing. It's really completely
different. I don't, I Sam, and I are just
getting, we're feeling each other up.
I gotta know if he's a 2X podcast listener.
I like, that's all I wasn't poor. 2x podcast listener.
I don't know. I'm kind of, actually, I don't
like that. I'm afraid that I'm giving.
Well, you're pretty. You're pretty, you're pretty
analytical you're pretty database.
And that's like that's like Friedman's whole take is he's
like, I'm not trying to be entertained.
I'm trying to, I'm trying to engage with it.
I'm trying. To get this information.
Nice goal. You know, I'm trying to do it in
a way that makes it not entertained.
Exactly. That's literally what he said.
He's like, I'm not trying to have fun.
I'm trying to figure out who JJ, Zachary sins, top 24.
And rookie drafts are. And I need to know.
I will say for like four boring, like when I've been in school
and I'm, you know, taking my accounting class and I have to
watch a video that's to 3x. Speed easily because I don't
give a fuck. It's so boring but I'm doing
this for for entertainment. So 1125, I do you think Hayden
Hayden is 2x? Oh God Emily.
I like I couldn't be less shocked.
I could not I could not possibly.
If you said okay you got a name someone other than Friedman who
you know who goes on to X. I like Hayden Hayden would have
been Hayden, would have been top three people, I would have
guessed What is the, what is the demos?
It spreadsheet. Is that the correlation?
It seems as if the correlation the correlation is the more into
spreadsheets you are the more likely you are to be because you
are, you're viewing. The exercise not as like art or
as like a collaborative discussion between podcaster an
audience, it's all about the information.
So what is what is leonie doing that?
Is you like running a chat GPT script?
Like, take out the most important points and then listen
to that. Unlike kind of the doctor put
him under What do we think you listen to podcasts on to a Leo
man? I bet I bet Leone is 1x because
he is going to feel the same way I do which is that it will break
his brain too much to do it on because here's the thing.
So I started he might be like kind of going, you know.
He just wants to hear some. Like he might not be trying to
download. He has time in which he can.
Or exactly. And he's all he's big into like
the huberman like life optimization brain, health type
stuff like I am. And if you told Andrew huberman,
you listen to his podcast on 2x he'd be like, get the fuck out,
dude. Like what are you trying to do
to yourself? He's watching the film.
Well, that explains why you like Trey, sermon, you actually looks
the same. I thought it was on point five
x. Like the rest of them.
This is regular filming. Same for same for same for Deus
McBride. Also also in slow motion when
the bread Dwayne, I mean Deuces, a good nickname, right?
Yeah, same thing. All right, let's let's let's
plan the plan. Your, this is some good, good
podcast speed. Talk will be with you next week,
I think the same three of us are again, next Friday, you can
listen to us. In one point two five, one point
Five, listen that wherever you want?
Yeah, whatever you want. We won't judge.
I will sue us. Davis will judge you, but you're
welcome here at ATP. Chasing.
It's been good stuff guys. We will see you all next week.