1 00:00:02,040 --> 00:00:08,240 Week 8 is behind us and we come to you on this Hallows Eve with 2 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:17,680 a very spooky edition of Stat Chasing Pat Fryer. 3 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:19,800 Helmos. This is why. 4 00:00:20,240 --> 00:00:23,560 This is why I'm Hot Anita. Handjob fix your sight. 5 00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:30,760 Jamar Alpha Play Chase, are you? You can't handle the heat. 6 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:32,439 It looks like we're finally at this point. 7 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:43,080 You're right. Happy Halloween, Draco. 8 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:48,480 And all of those of you in chat, I I noticed that you're not in 9 00:00:48,480 --> 00:00:52,560 costume. I am, in fact, in costume. 10 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:56,800 I am an irrationally exuberant Cowboys fan, which isn't that 11 00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:58,760 different than my everyday costume. 12 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:02,280 Yeah, I I I thought we were we were just gonna do Kirk Hoson's 13 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:05,400 on the on the header of this week and they're like oh, can we 14 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:07,640 do CD line? I'm like, oh, God damn it, 15 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:09,520 you're gonna make a talk with my boys again. 16 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:14,640 Yeah, I mean, for every, for every seedy lamb, there is also 17 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:17,360 a Tony Pollard. So we'll definitely have to talk 18 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:19,360 about Tony. Of course. 19 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:23,240 Very sad with the slew of injuries again this week. 20 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:29,280 Kirk Cousins out for the season. You know, we get Tarod Taylor 21 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,720 with yet another rib injury. Slash. 22 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:36,080 I believe if I remember correctly wasn't the Justin 23 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:40,280 Herbert start because of a Tarod Taylor rib injury where he then 24 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:42,440 got his lung punctured by the team doctor. 25 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:45,840 So this guy has bad. Luck with ribs. 26 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:51,880 Yeah, yeah, root cages have not have not truly doing well but we 27 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:56,640 did get Tommy DeVito to play some NFL quarterback snap. 28 00:01:56,640 --> 00:02:00,320 So, you know, the NFL giveth and the NFL taketh away. 29 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:04,520 But I'm sure that we will cover all of that during our charts, 30 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:09,360 especially when we see, say, Quan Barclay's 382 touches in a 31 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:13,160 single game. That's only slight exaggeration. 32 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:25,360 So yeah, let's let's get into these these charts and and as 33 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:28,120 always, we start off with QB passing and efficiency. 34 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:31,760 Efficiency and rushing production. 35 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:35,680 And on the horizontal axis we've got adjusted yards for attempt, 36 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:40,360 which is like normal yards for attempt but rewards touchdowns 37 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:44,640 and punishes interceptions. And then on the vertical axis 38 00:02:44,640 --> 00:02:47,320 we've got touchdown rate. self-explanatory. 39 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:51,760 And then the size of the bubble corresponds to their rushing 40 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:56,400 yardage per game. And so anybody we we sort of 41 00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:00,520 like I feel like we're looking at a pretty stable chart every 42 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:04,480 week and I know we've been back and forth about maybe maybe 43 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:08,240 doing another chart to sort of like give additional takeaways 44 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:10,520 and any anything sort of sticking out to you. 45 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:14,480 Yeah good good tease on a potential shake up of the QB 46 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:16,920 chart. We'll have to to see when I can 47 00:03:16,920 --> 00:03:19,600 get around to coding up a new chart here. 48 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:23,280 But I think we've got some good ideas there that might lead to 49 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:25,960 an even more actionable quarterback chart. 50 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:30,080 With respect to fantasy for right now, dealing with the old 51 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:36,040 chart format, not a ton of big takeaways I would say, you know 52 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:40,600 we're starting to see Lamar even even after like not a great weak 53 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:43,840 here against the Cardinals where Gus Edwards just ate up all the 54 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:48,480 touchdown production. I I would still say that you 55 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:51,000 know based on what we've seen Lamar do, based on where he's at 56 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:55,000 at the chart, I certainly see you know you have those enormous 57 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:57,680 ceiling games well within the range for Lamar. 58 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:02,160 So he's if he continues to be underpriced or undervalued in 59 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:08,240 you know DFS or BR drafts or dog bowl drafts, he's he's one that 60 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:09,880 seems like a good spot to attack. 61 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:13,680 Typically in like the the draft style formats he's clustered and 62 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:16,000 you know if there's elite quarterbacks on the slate, Lamar 63 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:18,560 goes with them. So I don't really think there's 64 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:20,440 a huge pricing inefficiency there. 65 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:24,480 There was in that week where I managed to take down a a Miami 66 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:27,960 seat but the market quickly corrected that and said Oh yeah, 67 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:31,280 Lamar Jackson should go basically 123 white right with 68 00:04:31,280 --> 00:04:33,840 Mahomes it Hertz. The other one that I wanted to 69 00:04:33,840 --> 00:04:39,360 mention this week was Purdy we saw and he's he came down a 70 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:42,640 little bit in TD rate here. His adjusted yards per attempt 71 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:47,920 is still very high but we've seen a couple I don't, I don't 72 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:51,760 want to like jump to conclusions and call them bad games from 73 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:56,480 Purdy, but I don't really think there's a way around calling 74 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:59,000 this most recent week a pretty bad week from him. 75 00:04:59,920 --> 00:05:06,360 Lots of lots of flavor and and context to add to the 76 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:09,560 performance. So in that he was coming off of 77 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:12,480 a concussion, that he only had six days to get right from 78 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:14,600 there. And he might have been concussed 79 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:17,560 again during the game. Yeah, yes, there there have been 80 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,400 some studies that people have done showing that players coming 81 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:24,440 off concussion do see dips in production and that tracks. 82 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:26,960 I don't know about you, Draco. Whenever I have traumatic brain 83 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:29,960 injuries, I'm typically just a little bit worse than everything 84 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:32,960 right after. So every everything involving 85 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:36,400 quick reactions, attention to detail like. 86 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:41,000 Brain shaking around my skull. Not not helpful for that. 87 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:43,480 Yeah. And and this is this is going to 88 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:46,840 get way too down narrative St. to be actionable at all. 89 00:05:46,840 --> 00:05:50,480 But I I do want to point at it as just a potential example of 90 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:55,160 like what a concussed guy slash guy recovering from ATBI looks 91 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:58,000 like versus someone who's got all their wits about him. 92 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:02,000 When Brock Purdy is sitting there inside the 10 yard line 93 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,320 with a wide open receiver in the end zone. 94 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:07,640 He just needs to layer in a little touch pass and instead he 95 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:11,080 just throws a dart right into the arms of the defender, you 96 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:14,320 know, But two yards in front of him, that might be something 97 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:18,120 where if he was, you know, at full, full mental processing 98 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:20,720 strength there, that's one where he's like, Oh yeah, let's just 99 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:22,800 layer this in. But instead he just rips it 100 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:25,520 right into the defender for a really costly turnover. 101 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:29,680 So. I think though apart like that 102 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:32,920 that that's like helpful like that like as a helpful reference 103 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:35,160 to a play when I'm thinking about this sort of 104 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:38,240 statistically. What I'm what I'm saying is over 105 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:41,280 a longer sample size he's played quite well. 106 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:46,560 Like the efficiency has been there and often times I find 107 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:50,360 that the most advantageous situations, especially for 108 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:52,880 quarterbacks. Other positions too, especially 109 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:57,800 for quarterbacks where you have a per game or two and people 110 00:06:58,280 --> 00:07:02,920 have these explanations just lined up like they're so ready 111 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:04,640 to believe. Oh. 112 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:09,240 Pretty is actually not that good it's a pretty pumpkin and you 113 00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:13,400 have a longer sort of sample size Now we're we're true a game 114 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:17,120 so it's not like a a vast sample size but it's solid it's half a 115 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:22,040 season of sample size a pretty playing well that I do think 116 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:28,480 that's sort of like a if you see dips in ADP ownership pricing 117 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:32,920 that may I mean pretty he's the he's the type of quarterback 118 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:37,200 where it's a little bit hard to. Get the true ceiling game just 119 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:41,400 because he he is a pocket passer on on on an offence that likes 120 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:46,160 to run the ball quite a lot. But he he he's I I think he's 121 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:49,760 definitely something where where you can play a a sort of vomit 122 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:56,120 stack maybe not quite vomit and it it can get there but maybe 123 00:07:56,120 --> 00:08:00,680 even more actionably that I'm I'm still really interested in 124 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:03,280 San Francisco pass catchers like because. 125 00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:08,280 I I know how strong this offence can be and I'm not I'm not going 126 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:11,720 to shy away because of one or two weak performances and and 127 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:16,640 maybe maybe that's sort of understood by most people but if 128 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:20,440 not I I I think that's a that's a pretty obvious example of a 129 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:26,680 regression to the positive side kind of the so you're so you're 130 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:29,840 looking at these last couple performances as more an 131 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:34,039 aberration than anything and you'd be willing to buy back in 132 00:08:34,159 --> 00:08:39,200 on Purdy gear going forward. Yeah, I I I mean it it's it's 133 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:44,800 maybe I don't have like the sort of explanation where I know ball 134 00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:48,840 or whatever. I just know that I I I much 135 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:54,280 prefer to rely on longer sample sizes and I think human beings 136 00:08:54,280 --> 00:08:58,400 are too ready. To believe patterns in smaller 137 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:03,640 sample sizes and I I I think I just think this is a pretty 138 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:06,960 classic example where you're better off trusting the larger 139 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:11,920 game sample OK that's that is fair to play devil's advocate. 140 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:15,920 I will say the things where Purdy is good are things like 141 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:19,840 EPA that are very going to be very systemic and more 142 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:23,520 indicative of the offense as a whole and not as much the 143 00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:26,840 individual player performance. And if we look at this offense 144 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:29,160 historically and other quarterbacks that have operated 145 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:32,320 in it, Jimmy Garoppolo also had a very good. 146 00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:35,760 I'm not. I'm not trying to make a talent 147 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:40,360 argument for Purdy because, like, I I understand all the 148 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:42,640 things you're saying where, like, the offense is set up to 149 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:46,600 make him look good, the the, the weapons that he has make him 150 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:49,160 look good. So I'm not trying to say Purdy's 151 00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:51,760 a world beater, but in terms of fantasy. 152 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:55,880 Can you still get those 2530 point games that you're getting 153 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:58,680 before? Like I I I I don't. 154 00:09:58,680 --> 00:10:03,000 I don't see those as as out of the picture and I don't see the 155 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:05,480 the sort of go go. I think I still see the go go 156 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:09,480 games from the 49ers where they just have so much talent that it 157 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:11,560 explodes as very much on the table. 158 00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:15,200 And I I think that's probably the best point and that's where 159 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:20,760 I personally probably make too many negative assumptions about 160 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:24,160 Purdy where you're saying it doesn't matter for fantasy how 161 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:26,960 good or bad he is, that you're you know what you're saying 162 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:29,000 about Oh well the offensive system is so good. 163 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:30,480 Yeah. And he gets to exist in that 164 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:32,720 offensive system. Deal with it, buddy. 165 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:35,560 Like he's just gonna he's gonna keep crushing and you're gonna 166 00:10:35,560 --> 00:10:41,920 keep crying if yeah so I I do think it was really important to 167 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:44,960 discuss Purdy though just with this you know this three-week 168 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:47,880 down stretch I I personally played a lot of Iuka the dog 169 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:49,800 bowl. I tried to get over my anti 170 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:53,080 Purdy bias and say yeah it doesn't matter that the offense 171 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:57,240 is so good and I really leaned in heavily into IUK and Kittle. 172 00:10:57,240 --> 00:11:02,080 I shouted out Kittle is a a good play in that format last week on 173 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:07,160 the show and that that pay off. But as far as other quarterbacks 174 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:11,520 here moving on in the chart I'm interested. 175 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:19,440 My my big question is we've got some interesting guys sitting 176 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:21,760 here at right around 7 yards per attempt. 177 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:24,960 Trevor Lawrence, Derek Carr. Stafford's going to miss some 178 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:28,040 time. Dak Prescott, all all these guys 179 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:31,200 sitting around here where I feel like they're probably right 180 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:33,240 around the same tier for Fantasy. 181 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:36,000 Of course they're they're also right in line with Mahomes and 182 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:41,320 Hertz, but I don't I don't think that's anything that it'd be 183 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:42,960 fair to lump these guys in with them. 184 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:44,600 Have you frozen? Oh, no. 185 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:48,080 We we we lost you for a second. OK? 186 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:53,480 The last thing we heard was that he's hanging around that Mahomes 187 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:56,320 and Hertz. But I don't think that's no, no, 188 00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:58,880 I was I was finishing that thought up with I don't think 189 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:02,440 it's fair to lump them together, but of these guys of Dak, 190 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:06,440 Lawrence and Carr, do you have any interest in any of these 191 00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:08,720 three as potential positive regression candidates? 192 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:11,280 We kind of saw Dak get there this week, but what about 193 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:16,480 Lawrence and Carr going forward? So I think I I I did call out 194 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:20,960 Carr as a as as somebody who I I I talked could improve as the 195 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:24,680 shoulder got better and it it does feel like. 196 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:28,280 You know everybody's been talking like their Carter's 197 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:33,560 played awful but truly awful. But above 7 yards per attempt, 198 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:36,840 adjusted yards per attempt, that's that's pretty good the 199 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:43,080 solid and and obviously you can see there that he's been getting 200 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:45,120 the yardage but not the touchdowns. 201 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:49,400 So that that that's something where I still, I still feel good 202 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:54,440 about that that having an improvement and maybe it's. 203 00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:59,160 It it it's had we talked about where Chris Olave always has his 204 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:02,280 hot he's he's been having these high air air yards that haven't 205 00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:06,760 been converted and if if those pay off then you can see a huge 206 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:11,160 explosion game for the two of them and Trevor Lawrence that 207 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:14,200 that's that's an interesting one where some of the peripheral 208 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:18,320 sort of like big time troll stats sort of stuff like that 209 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:21,920 have said he oh this guy is playing great but his receivers 210 00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:25,840 just keep dropping the ball. That that's interesting in that 211 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:28,840 like the receivers only really need to put it together for one 212 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:30,880 game, for that game to be awesome. 213 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:36,560 But at the same time do you do you I, I'm, I guess I'm asking 214 00:13:36,560 --> 00:13:41,360 Eunice, do you think it's sort of Fair that Trevor Lawrence is 215 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:44,320 that's just his situation right now where he gets a let down by 216 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:49,120 the talent around them where it's a lot of not quite elite 217 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:51,360 receivers not quite #1 receivers. 218 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:56,360 Yeah I I don't know. I don't I don't necessarily from 219 00:13:56,360 --> 00:14:00,760 the games that I, from what I've watched and you know I don't 220 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:03,720 really feel like Lawrence is getting let down a ton by his 221 00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:05,480 receivers. There's certainly some you know 222 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:08,880 some drops where you know if those get converted all of a 223 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:10,600 sudden his numbers look a whole lot better. 224 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:14,880 I also think that he might be running just a little bit poor 225 00:14:15,680 --> 00:14:20,200 as far as his his own stats for all the touchdowns that ETN is 226 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:22,440 scoring, right. If ETN is taking all those 227 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:26,960 touchdowns off the table and offense, then Trevor Lawrence is 228 00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:28,280 just going to look a little bit worse. 229 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:31,920 And so I, I, I did want to bring up Carr and Lawrence just 230 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:36,040 because I think and really Stafford kind of is in the same 231 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:39,960 group with them for the reason of hey, we saw Kyron Williams 232 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:42,560 run super hot on touchdowns for the start of the season. 233 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:45,640 And again this data is through the entire season up to now. 234 00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:48,880 So it takes you know a couple games to really move the needle 235 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:52,000 for these guys. So I do you know we're going to 236 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:55,880 miss time on Stafford, but I do think Carr and Lawrence are are 237 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:58,920 potentially some interesting targets going forward. 238 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:02,200 I'm actually just looking up right now. 239 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:06,160 Oh, bummer. Yeah, I I couldn't remember if 240 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:10,320 the Jags had played the Colts twice already or if they still 241 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:12,720 had one more Colts game and they they have played them twice 242 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:14,280 already. So that's a shame. 243 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:17,840 I was, I was looking for a Jags Colts matchup where we might get 244 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:22,160 a Trevor Lawrence explosion. But yeah, we're we're gonna have 245 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:24,880 to wait for. I mean, jeez, there's really 246 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:28,600 not. The the Machos aren't favorable. 247 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:32,200 Yeah, it looks like Week 17, which you know, if you remember 248 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:34,480 is all that matters. Week 17 where they get the 249 00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:38,800 Panthers may maybe that's the spot where we get the the T Law 250 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:42,440 eruption. Derek Carr as far as like an 251 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:46,200 eruption spot always just feels like a tiny bit thinner to me. 252 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:50,000 To have those eruption games purely from the Taysom Hill 253 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:52,520 touchdown equity vulture phenomenon. 254 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:55,280 Right. Like like kid, could Derek Carr 255 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:58,080 easily have a game where he throws for 403. 256 00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:00,120 Yeah absolutely. Like we see it in the Ariard 257 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,960 stats to lava. Like Shahid is getting like you 258 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:07,960 know average depth of target of 50 for like he's going crazy. 259 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:12,160 Like if Carr runs hot one week like he could for sure have a 260 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:16,040 monster week. Yeah you're you're just you're 261 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:20,520 concerned that you're also fading that Taysom Hill doesn't 262 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:24,080 come in and steal a big chunk of that production because he he's 263 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:28,160 very live to and every week so and I do like that I think that 264 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:31,720 it does you know depress people's perception of cartoon 265 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:33,400 just having that taste in variable in there. 266 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:36,560 So he's one that's sneaky to me. Right. 267 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:40,480 What he's He's played by the by the numbers he's played well, 268 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:43,920 whereas most people that I feel like the perception is that he's 269 00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:47,720 playing awful. Yeah, which is strange to me and 270 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:53,360 I like I I hear people calling not to, not to call out Silva, 271 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:57,120 but on the establish a show on Friday Silva's calling car a 272 00:16:57,120 --> 00:16:59,880 pussy. And I'm thinking the guy like 273 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:04,560 tore his AC or like sprained his AC joint and came like. 274 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:06,440 Played like 2 days later or something. 275 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:08,839 Yeah, I I don't know that that's a a pussy man. 276 00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:12,000 That's that's the guy who's who's gritting it out for the 277 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:13,960 team. Here's a Here's an interesting 278 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:17,119 thing that I I wish that I had time to look into this, but 279 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:19,760 maybe maybe you can shed some light on this for me. 280 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:23,160 Adjusted yards per attempt that's not going to be 281 00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:26,480 negatively impacted by guys that are are throwing the ball away, 282 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:28,119 right? Like a throwaway isn't counted 283 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:29,760 in there in your adjusted yards per attempt. 284 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:33,080 Is that correct? No, I think that. 285 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:37,160 I think I can't. I shouldn't. 286 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:41,720 I I shouldn't know it and I'm but I am pretty sure that it 287 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:43,800 does count as a it does. OK. 288 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:49,000 I was I was wondering what if I can look at the Derek Carr stats 289 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:54,840 as a split and I just remove the million Alvin Kamara 0 yard A 290 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:58,560 dot check downs and then I look at his adjusted yards for 291 00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:01,280 attempt without all of those little tiny Kamara dink and 292 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:03,080 dunks in there. You know, not that they're not 293 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:04,600 going to happen, they're still going to happen. 294 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:06,400 But I I feel like. Hold on a second. 295 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:09,960 They're not included. They're sorry, they are 296 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:11,280 included. Yes, they are included. 297 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:12,800 They, they are included. OK. 298 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:14,360 Yeah, I was right. So there. 299 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:18,760 There there's a APFS stop for aimed passes that that would 300 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,520 correct for that and maybe we should make that adjustment 301 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:24,040 going forward. Yeah. 302 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:26,520 Wonder. Wondering if if we extricate the 303 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:30,160 Kamara, dink and dink stuff, how Karl looks as a passer 'cause I 304 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:33,560 I do think that that may be skewing his adjusted yards per 305 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:36,240 attempt a little bit. And again not that those aren't 306 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:39,960 going to happen but just to get more of an understanding of this 307 00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:42,360 is a guy who is he's pushing the ball down the field. 308 00:18:42,360 --> 00:18:45,040 You know like he's he's chucking it deep to Olave. 309 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:46,720 He's chucking it deep to Shaheed. 310 00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:49,760 And I'm. I'm looking at their schedule 311 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:52,360 here. You know we've got Saints Bears, 312 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:55,520 Saints, Vikings, Saints, Falcons, Saints. 313 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:58,320 Like Saints, Panthers, Saints, Giants. 314 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:00,920 Oh my. So I don't know I'm kind of I'm 315 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,560 I'm feeling a buy signal for Derek Carr. 316 00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:06,840 I don't know if that's too hot to take for you, but to me, with 317 00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:10,600 the the way the schedule looks and the the public perception of 318 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:12,760 him, I think he might be undervalued. 319 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:16,760 Like I think he's like a a a pretty classy example pocket 320 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:22,200 passer where he doesn't rush and obviously the offense isn't 321 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:25,920 perfect so he's not he's not going to the homes every week, 322 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:31,040 but does he have the 300 yards, 300 plus yards and and three 323 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:34,200 touch sounds in him in an agreement We he he he he 324 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:37,600 certainly. Like and and and that is 325 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:39,840 something where at a really depressed price. 326 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:43,640 When When's your money? Yeah. 327 00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:47,760 Don't need to spend a ton more time here on the quarterback 328 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:49,760 chart. The last one we we need to shout 329 00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:53,840 out though before we move on is Kirk Cousins who is making his 330 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:57,080 Viking funeral appearance on this chart as he tore his 331 00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:59,640 Achilles this week. Very tragic. 332 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:03,960 Kirk was having a career year. Leading the league in 333 00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:07,240 completions. Believe tied with Tua for first 334 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:09,000 in the league in total touchdowns. 335 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:12,920 Just the guy was crushing. I mean with or without Justin 336 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:18,000 Jefferson Kirk was was ballin this season and he's he's a 337 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:20,000 really easy guy to want to root for. 338 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:24,920 He's a little bit, a little bit of a goofy character, but I 339 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,280 mean, he seems like a good person and it it definitely 340 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:31,000 makes you sad to see a guy like that lose a season of injury. 341 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,720 So got to pour some out for our boy Kirk here. 342 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:37,000 Yeah, yeah. Root rooting for him to make a 343 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:39,120 big comeback in next year. Come back, priority year, 344 00:20:39,120 --> 00:20:40,960 hopefully. Oh, that would be great. 345 00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:43,920 All right, let's let's move on to running backs, unless you've 346 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:45,920 got any other quarterbacks you wanted to touch on. 347 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:50,360 No, no, covered, who I thought were covering. 348 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,400 And I need to, I need to zoom out a little. 349 00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:01,600 There we go. And so this is our running back 350 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:05,600 snaps and usage chart and and this part of it deals 351 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:09,320 exclusively with sort of starters or at the very least 352 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:14,480 sort of 1A's. And what we have here is rush 353 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:18,600 attempts, routes, pass blocks and run blocking, all expressed 354 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,680 as a percentage of team total play. 355 00:21:21,360 --> 00:21:24,520 And so when you stack these bars on top of each other, you see 356 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:29,760 what percentage of the offensive plays the the this running back 357 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:33,200 was on the field for and then you can see the sort of flavour 358 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:36,400 for how much of that was rushing attempts, how much of it was 359 00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:38,560 routes, how much was pass blocking. 360 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:44,160 And so we we sort of covered this, we sort of cover what this 361 00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:47,600 chart is every week. But one thing that I think I 362 00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,600 haven't sort of emphasized, and maybe not emphasized enough. 363 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:54,480 Is the reason we look at stuff like routes in something like 364 00:21:54,480 --> 00:22:00,400 this over targets is because whenever barring a couple of 365 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:06,440 very elite sort of receiving running backs, when a running 366 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:10,920 back gets a target it's usually more often than not it's because 367 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:15,000 the where the offense wanted to put the ball, it wasn't open and 368 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:19,880 so either the the the blitz got home too quickly or they were 369 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,640 covered. And it's like OK, we're not 370 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,960 going to be able to push the the ball down the field display. 371 00:22:25,360 --> 00:22:27,840 So let's get it, let's hit our check down. 372 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:32,760 And the the main thing is the main thing of honestly for that 373 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:35,880 is in terms of usage is that you're on the field that you're 374 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:40,320 actually running the check down and a huge component of 375 00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:44,680 converting those check downs into targets. 376 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:49,040 It is look for all but the very best of route runners like your 377 00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:52,400 your Christian McCaffrey who can run all these routes that gets 378 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:57,000 open and as a trusted part of the receiving offence he he 379 00:22:57,040 --> 00:23:00,960 obviously his ability to get targets is skilled but a a lot 380 00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:06,760 of players it converting routes into targets it it's it's a big 381 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:12,320 look component good good summary and definitely I think good 382 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:16,800 clarification on why we're displaying routes here over 383 00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:20,280 targets. One guy that I wanted to to 384 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:24,520 bring up here was Javonte Williams who we are seeing trend 385 00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:29,200 up the chart. I mean this to me the IT kind of 386 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:33,840 seems like the entire thesis. Javonte's down near the bottom 387 00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:39,000 right around a Chan and Pacheco you can you can identify him 388 00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:43,360 with a really large percentage. If you look at at the other 389 00:23:43,360 --> 00:23:47,800 green sections of the bar for all the backs like you can see 390 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:51,400 how much of of his usage is coming from rush attempt. 391 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:56,320 So when he's on the field they they are pretty keen on putting 392 00:23:56,320 --> 00:24:00,960 the ball in his belly and I it seems really silly. 393 00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:04,120 I know there's been narrative of Sean Payton might not know like 394 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,080 he wasn't familiar with Javonte and admitted as much. 395 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,400 He's like Oh yeah it wasn't didn't know how good this guy 396 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:14,680 was until we self scouted during the bye and no you know didn't 397 00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:17,800 didn't realize Marvin Mims wasn't getting on the field as 398 00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:20,040 much or or whatnot. I don't know how much of that is 399 00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:23,000 actually real or how much of that is just like hey isn't it 400 00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:25,760 Lol Sean Payton bad. Like isn't that funny? 401 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:30,520 But to me this kind of looks like signal that Javante is 402 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:33,840 establishing himself as the preferred back. 403 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:39,800 Granted it is still a a three headed monster, but I think the 404 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:43,360 direction that it's trending is Javante will become the usable 405 00:24:43,360 --> 00:24:48,120 one and then it's looking like P Ryan and Julio McLaughlin will 406 00:24:48,120 --> 00:24:52,680 both basically be unusable contingent value type plays 407 00:24:53,120 --> 00:24:56,560 going forward, but wanted to highlight Javante as he creeps 408 00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,360 his way up the chart here. That's it. 409 00:24:59,360 --> 00:25:03,200 I think that's a great call then and also interesting in that 410 00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:06,000 context is that he is coming off the ACL injury. 411 00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:11,000 And so as as the season wears on and as the knee becomes in 412 00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:14,320 better and better shape. I I I think that's a that's an 413 00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:19,960 easy trend to buy where it's this is sort of like if you're 414 00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:23,760 thinking about your prior expectations you you would have 415 00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:28,160 expected Javante to. Get an increasingly higher 416 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:33,120 command of the of the offensive touch share And so it it it 417 00:25:33,120 --> 00:25:36,400 definitely makes sense that it's signal for that to be happening. 418 00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:43,160 The other other, I guess split backfield situation that I 419 00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:48,880 wanted to touch on was we have Zach Moss and Jonathan Taylor 420 00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,720 where Jonathan Taylor just starts crushing in the first 421 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:56,960 half and then goes basically radio silent in the second-half 422 00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:00,480 of the game. Zach Moss still more involved 423 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:04,760 than Jonathan Taylor managers would like even when Zach Moss 424 00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:09,000 was coming off of a a week where he was a true game time decision 425 00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:13,880 with injury. So really weird to me for Moss 426 00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,160 to hang on to so much of that work. 427 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:20,040 Not sure if you think that that's something that's sticky 428 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,480 going forward. Is he just gonna be a thorn in 429 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:25,560 Jonathan Taylor's side for the rest of the season? 430 00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:28,680 Is it gonna progress in the direction that Jonathan Taylor 431 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,640 managers would reminds? Me of it. 432 00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:33,360 Do you know what it really reminds me of? 433 00:26:33,360 --> 00:26:37,440 It reminds me of when it was Jonathan Taylor and Hayden Heinz 434 00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:44,120 where JT would be clearly like even though Heinz is was good, 435 00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:48,440 JT is clearly the better back. Should be getting the touches 436 00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:53,680 and it just took longer for that to get established than than 437 00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:59,920 we're expecting. So obviously Zach Moss is a torn 438 00:26:59,920 --> 00:27:05,160 in JT side for now. But I feel like that's a really 439 00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:13,560 fragile like set of circumstances where my and I 440 00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,280 guess this is just my opinion. My opinion is that JT is sort of 441 00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,360 like. It barring health is a is a 442 00:27:19,360 --> 00:27:23,280 future Hall of Famer and Zach Moss just is not even though 443 00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:27,480 he's playing well right now he is playing well right now and I 444 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:33,000 just think that it's just sort of an inevitability that JT does 445 00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,920 just elevate himself. We're like yes we we just the 446 00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:40,360 way we win is we give this guy the ball and that's not 447 00:27:40,360 --> 00:27:43,240 happening right now that that's frustrating and and. 448 00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,720 There is, there's definitely some possibility where it 449 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:51,880 doesn't happen, but I I do think it's overwhelmingly likely that 450 00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:56,040 by the end of the year and obviously I I don't know when it 451 00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:58,760 that it is AJT show in in that backfield. 452 00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,920 So allow me to put a hot take in your mouth. 453 00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:09,200 Are you saying that because JT missed games to start has had a 454 00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:12,560 little bit of a lackluster fantasy production? 455 00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:17,000 You know in his first few games back having to split with Moss, 456 00:28:17,360 --> 00:28:21,680 he may be a really low owned piece come time for best ball 457 00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:28,520 play offs and in week 17 JT against the Raiders may be the 458 00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:32,840 guy you need. I think that if we're going down 459 00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,360 Naruto Street, I I find that one really easy to believe. 460 00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:39,480 Definitely that one. Draco has said you can't win the 461 00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:42,280 $3,000,000 without Jonathan Taylor. 462 00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:44,520 You heard it here first. Everyone hold it to it. 463 00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:46,800 True. And and you've got the stat 464 00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:49,240 chasing guarantee on that. Absolutely. 465 00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:53,600 If it doesn't come true, the stat ship chasing will refund 466 00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:55,800 whatever money you lose on that advice. 467 00:28:56,240 --> 00:29:00,280 Yep just e-mail Pete and and and and he'll get you yeah. 468 00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:04,080 If you if you do in fact make the finals with AJT team and you 469 00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:08,280 do not win $3,000,000. I believe Pete and Pat are both 470 00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:12,320 eligible or or you know on the line for refunding you your 471 00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:17,040 $3,000,000 that you should have had Moving on to other running 472 00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:20,240 backs near the bottom of the chart here this is this is was a 473 00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:23,320 bottom of the the chart kind of weak in my opinion as far as 474 00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:27,200 guys where we had important stuff to talk about but that's 475 00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:31,680 Gus Edwards and Darrell Henderson so I'll start with Gus 476 00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:36,480 Edwards. Gus Edwards really demonstrated 477 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:41,960 this week my entire thesis on why I really wanted to hammer 478 00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:45,760 Justice Hill this offseason. Because I felt like this offense 479 00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:49,520 might be really good and they are just going to get a lot of 480 00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:51,320 opportunities to score the football. 481 00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,640 And I just want, you know explosive players on the offense 482 00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,800 that I I thought that Justice Hill may be able to work in 483 00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,680 there for some Green Zone touches. 484 00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:04,280 Turns out they really think Justice Hill is just a satellite 485 00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:06,920 back. Gus Edwards is definitely, you 486 00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:10,360 know, on on those goal line attempts or those short plunges 487 00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:12,880 it it's definitely Gus Edwards's preferred. 488 00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:17,400 And the biggest painful part for me for that is at the start of 489 00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:21,040 the season when JK Dobbins was still healthy, all for the, you 490 00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:25,240 know, entire 15 minutes that he was, they did take Dobbins out 491 00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:28,080 of the game and give Justice Hill those Green Zone and goal 492 00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,960 line touches. They were trying to make Justice 493 00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,480 Hill a thing. And it just, at this point 494 00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:37,400 doesn't look like he's ever going to be the thing that the 495 00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:39,480 Justice Hill Truthers want him to be. 496 00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:42,120 You're just you're basically sitting here. 497 00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:45,480 I mean, shoot, even with the Gus Edwards injury, I I think you're 498 00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:48,400 just shit out of luck. It's it's never going to be able 499 00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:53,720 to be the Justice Hill show. You know if you have a a roster 500 00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:57,640 like ours in the stat chasing main event where you're just up 501 00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:01,480 a Creek for running back points just a silk can get you 6 a week 502 00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:05,000 you know. But I do think Gus Edwards is 503 00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:09,080 that thesis playing out of sometimes the touchdowns don't 504 00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:12,680 go through the passing game in this offense and the offense is 505 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,160 high-powered enough that you want those pieces. 506 00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:19,680 And we're seeing Gus he, he's crept on to this starters chart. 507 00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:21,400 Now he's getting more opportunities. 508 00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,240 He is kind of like a trap back. He's not getting a lot of 509 00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:29,200 passing game work, but you know, the the touchdown opportunities 510 00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:31,160 are really what drives his value there. 511 00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:34,480 So he's definitely getting on Gus Edwards. 512 00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:41,760 He's definitely getting a touchdown looks and I don't. 513 00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:43,480 I I I don't know. I don't. 514 00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:47,000 I don't like it but. He definitely seems like the 515 00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:50,920 last couple of weeks the the opportunity share for Gus 516 00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:56,280 Edwards has gone up quite a bit and the last two weeks in 517 00:31:56,280 --> 00:32:01,320 particular he's actually played quite well and I guess it it's 518 00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:06,600 running back if it short term like one or two week running 519 00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:11,280 back efficiency is is can be so volatile that there is a part of 520 00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:13,560 me that's hesitant to just say listen. 521 00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:17,200 This is the Gus Edwards show and and it's in his backfield to 522 00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:21,680 lose because he's getting the share and he's playing so well. 523 00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:29,680 Like I I I think that's that's that's true right now and but it 524 00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:33,920 cannot be true for 2 1/2 more months all the way through the 525 00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:38,400 end of the regular season that that does feel a little tough. 526 00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:42,560 I I don't know if the if. If the whole thing, the whole 527 00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:46,760 season is decided for the backfield, yeah, but definitely, 528 00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:50,960 definitely been disappointing for Justice Hill and definitely 529 00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:54,600 need a couple of things to break your way for that thesis to work 530 00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:59,400 out. And I I guess how what's the 531 00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:03,000 action we'll take away in that? We're we're not taking, we're 532 00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:08,320 not taking Justice Hill in the dog Bowl in in shorter benches. 533 00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:13,320 She's probably not rosterable. He obviously is for our Extreme 534 00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:21,560 0 RV squad in the main event but is he is he still probably some 535 00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:25,400 at at back where because the offence is good he still has 536 00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:29,600 actually he still has a good bit of potential value. 537 00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:34,360 I I I think that's still true, but don't definitely don't feel 538 00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:37,600 nearly as good about it. As as we did when they're 539 00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:43,760 bidding what, $600.00 on them, $5 on them in in Week 2. 540 00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:49,000 Yeah, absolutely. I I just to me the the way I see 541 00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:53,120 it playing out is let's say both Gus and Justice stay totally 542 00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:56,840 healthy the rest of the season. The Ravens have kind of told us 543 00:33:56,840 --> 00:34:01,080 like we like deploying Justice Hill in this specific way and 544 00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:04,120 and it's that specific way. It's not a lot of volume. 545 00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:07,320 It's they want to use them. He He looks good too when he 546 00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:09,960 touches the ball, you know, And he got a kind. 547 00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:12,520 Of like, great. That means we're using them, 548 00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:14,360 right? Yeah, exactly. 549 00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:17,120 And I and and I don't really fault them for that. 550 00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:19,320 He's not not such a big bodied guy. 551 00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:21,560 Maybe he truly can't hold up to that workload. 552 00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:25,080 But anyway, thought that was important just on the back of 553 00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,960 the monster game that Gus Edwards had this week to provide 554 00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:29,760 a little clarity in that situation. 555 00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:33,719 A week where it wasn't a monster performance. 556 00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:38,440 But there is relevance here for Fantasy, especially with Matt 557 00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:40,679 Stafford likely going to miss the game. 558 00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:44,120 We're looking at Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman 559 00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:50,800 chopping up a backfield here. And while Henderson did get more 560 00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:55,120 opportunities overall, I think it was a lot closer than the 561 00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:58,160 market anticipated. And it really looks like it's 562 00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:02,280 basically a true split between Henderson and Freeman, with 563 00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:05,040 Henderson having a little bit of an edge in the passing game. 564 00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:07,600 Do you think that's a fair assessment of the situation? 565 00:35:08,240 --> 00:35:10,120 Yeah, I I think that's pretty fair. 566 00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:14,360 And the only thing that and and maybe this is a debate. 567 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:18,080 Maybe we need to talk about it. My my sort of gut reaction when 568 00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:22,240 I see that at Match Stafford isn't playing is that like, oh 569 00:35:22,240 --> 00:35:24,560 shit, I don't. I actually don't want the 570 00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:29,320 running backs now because. He's such a like he's so 571 00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:35,080 important for the offense that him not playing means that the 572 00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:38,480 the overall pie could just shrink them dramatically. 573 00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:43,120 I definitely, I agree. I agree with you 100% there. 574 00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:47,800 I think it's more for for people that are in dire straits for 575 00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:49,800 running back. It might be a break glass in 576 00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:55,360 case of emergency and so let's let's give a couple comparisons. 577 00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:59,320 Let's say you're staring down Darrell Henderson or Amari de 578 00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,080 Mercado. Who are you rolling with this 579 00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:10,720 week? Yeah, probably Henderson, just 580 00:36:10,720 --> 00:36:14,520 because there's definitely, they're probably similar 581 00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:20,600 situations where they have sort of not full and. 582 00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:25,520 There's there's other backs hanging around but then Arizona 583 00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:26,960 they're going to start Clayton tune. 584 00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:34,520 So it's like you you really you really need that a really high 585 00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:38,120 share and for things to break your way for them. 586 00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:41,400 Ricardo to to get there, where's? 587 00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:44,680 I don't know. Maybe the Rams have shown that 588 00:36:44,720 --> 00:36:48,760 they can at least put up some games of production with. 589 00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:55,240 With Stafford out that maybe maybe maybe Henderson is is 590 00:36:55,240 --> 00:36:59,440 slightly better but that that that does feel there. 591 00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:02,440 I don't feel confident in in that at all that that feels 592 00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:05,560 pretty close. Here's here's a gross one from 593 00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:08,880 Andre Stevenson or Darrell Henderson. 594 00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:14,360 Oh, that's tough, isn't it? Because like. 595 00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:20,280 From Andre is like turtle fourth round pick but. 596 00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:25,040 Hasn't played well. Offense has been quite bad at 597 00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:28,600 times. Like you, you you sort of do 598 00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:32,240 have to say Roman trade, just because if you're putting any 599 00:37:32,240 --> 00:37:35,960 weight on your priors, like they obviously leaned him 600 00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:39,640 dramatically, but. If you're if you're talking 601 00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:41,880 qualitatively and and quantitatively about the 602 00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:44,120 situations, they they don't sound that much different, 603 00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:47,320 right? Yeah, it's he's really losing 604 00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:51,240 work to Zeke Elliott or am I? Do I and and the Patriots? 605 00:37:51,240 --> 00:37:54,120 Might have considered trading Matt Jones but they didn't like 606 00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:57,640 nobody called like, no, you're good, you can have them. 607 00:37:58,240 --> 00:38:01,760 Can you keep them? Not at not not not great there 608 00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:06,200 at all. The only other guy that I had 609 00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:10,000 where I wanted to bring him up and he's he's more near the top 610 00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:17,160 of the chart is Saquon, who had just absurd usage on the back of 611 00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:22,280 Tommy DeVito out there and the Giants refusing to pass the ball 612 00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:26,960 that just just wanted to highlight the absolute crazy 613 00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:29,560 amount of usage that Saquon got this week. 614 00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:32,600 Oh, and you know what? I'd be remiss if I didn't 615 00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:36,680 mention Jamir Gibbs, who has snuck into the second spot as 616 00:38:36,680 --> 00:38:39,640 far as the best usage profile in the I. 617 00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:46,160 I should say that's two games, yeah, because as sort of regular 618 00:38:46,240 --> 00:38:49,360 listeners will remember we we're, we do this on a four week 619 00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:53,520 sort of rolling average and he wasn't there was either a BI or 620 00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:55,280 he wasn't available for the other two. 621 00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:58,720 So that is a sample size of two games and and obviously 2 622 00:38:58,720 --> 00:39:02,200 monster games. Well, important context I think. 623 00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:05,280 Yes. Yeah, very, very good to clarify 624 00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:08,720 that. But yeah the, I mean really it's 625 00:39:08,720 --> 00:39:12,160 just and and you know this is something where last night on 626 00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:17,400 the Showdown slate, ETR had Gibbs projected for like an 627 00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:21,960 absurd amount of points. It's like 21.1 and then they 628 00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:24,520 brought it down to 21 point O and run. 629 00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:28,360 The Sims also had Gibbs for just a disgusting amount. 630 00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:31,240 Like looking at the projection like this is wrong. 631 00:39:31,240 --> 00:39:33,960 I it doesn't even matter how good the player is, like the 632 00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:37,160 base median projection is not like 'cause I think run The Sims 633 00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:39,240 is even higher. It's like 23 or something. 634 00:39:39,240 --> 00:39:42,440 It just like this is not a base projection. 635 00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:45,720 Like I'm sorry, something's messed up in your inputs and for 636 00:39:45,720 --> 00:39:49,440 Run The Sims, they had crazy crazy play volume for the Lions. 637 00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:55,040 Turns out it all, it all played out that exact way where those 638 00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:58,280 crazy projections came to fruition for Gibbs. 639 00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:04,000 And so I think my big take away there is just the Lions 640 00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:10,080 backfield produces such an absurd amount of opportunity and 641 00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:13,840 expected fantasy points that if it's a game that they're 642 00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:18,560 remotely in, it's just you. It's kind of like the Dolphins 643 00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:20,840 running backs, right? Like you play Dolphins running 644 00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:23,000 backs, you also play Lions running backs. 645 00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:25,840 And of you know, when you get Montgomery in there and the 646 00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:27,560 works going to be a little more split. 647 00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:31,240 Then it's less attractive. But I do think that we're going 648 00:40:31,240 --> 00:40:33,800 that direction for the Dolphins as well. 649 00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:38,440 Where as you know, Jeff Wilson, Junior and Ahmed are working in 650 00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:42,760 and you get a Chan back. It's going to be more of hey 651 00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:45,880 these guys are less reliable week in and week out for these 652 00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:50,640 monster games where it it condenses on one guy you know 653 00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:55,440 when there's people missing due to injury or whatnot but still 654 00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:58,280 assets you love to have invest wall because those blow up games 655 00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:01,480 can come still guys that if they're you know available at 656 00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:04,480 low ownership or depressed prices in DFS you like to play 657 00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:06,360 them just because they're on a a great offense. 658 00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:11,680 So really it's just again, not to go back to the there's 659 00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:13,800 offenses you want. There's offenses that you don't 660 00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:17,600 want point that we've talked about on the show before. 661 00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:20,320 But yeah, I I. I think, I think that is a great 662 00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:23,440 point where the lines are are are clearly very fantasy rich 663 00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:29,600 environment. All round I do think it's it's 664 00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:34,200 worth calling out that there's a there's this Twitter page called 665 00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:38,120 the Coach Speak Index and they they sort of look at the 666 00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:42,240 different trends which coaches say things and then what they 667 00:41:42,240 --> 00:41:45,720 say actually translate and and sort of what's the rate of that 668 00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:51,200 and the Dan Campbell for workload stuff if he says it in 669 00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:53,680 the season. Hey, we this guy is going to get 670 00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:57,080 the ball. That guy gets the ball and they 671 00:41:57,080 --> 00:42:00,800 sort of like flagged that where when he said something along the 672 00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:05,480 lines of I'd love to say we were going to spill, spill him or 673 00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:08,360 whatever. But no we really need we we need 674 00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:11,800 him to play. He's going to play a lot and I'm 675 00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:17,120 sure that was at least a part of the the big projections for 676 00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:20,440 Jamir, where? Yeah like you said it it is a 677 00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:23,960 great offense to be a part of and and then when David 678 00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:29,200 Montgomery is out he he sort of is a clear far and away belt 679 00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:31,760 bell cow. I I do think, I do think it'll 680 00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:35,400 be interesting to see what the split will be when David 681 00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:39,680 Montgomery comes back because on the one hand they love David 682 00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:42,680 Montgomery and they've made these comments in the past where 683 00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:47,160 like they see him as the as the guy who can take the load and. 684 00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:51,400 He can take the punishment and Jamir Gibbs is their change of 685 00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:56,200 pace and but there's also a thing where they can't put the 686 00:42:56,200 --> 00:43:00,440 genie back in the bottle where they have, they have given Jamir 687 00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:05,640 Gibbs the rock and he has done what he's played well. 688 00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:08,880 So it's like they can't really say that anymore that he's just 689 00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:12,520 this this race car that they don't want to use a sedan or 690 00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:17,000 whatever. Yeah, I I definitely think it's 691 00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:18,840 a situation and a monitor going forward. 692 00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:21,960 But just always err on the side of playing your Lions. 693 00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:25,080 You know, Lions will make a great offense. 694 00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:28,720 Let's let's move on to our backups chart here. 695 00:43:28,720 --> 00:43:37,000 Yeah so it's it's the same chart except this as as you can see 696 00:43:37,200 --> 00:43:42,920 these are people with 25 to 40% of routes plus plus rush 697 00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:46,640 attempts. Aaron Jones will. 698 00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:50,000 It might take him a couple of weeks to get up there, but he's 699 00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:54,200 going to get back to the starters chart sooner than 700 00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:56,800 later. He finally got, I believe was he 701 00:43:56,800 --> 00:44:01,880 above 50% snaps this week but finally working in for more 702 00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:06,800 work. I think on the you know the flip 703 00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:08,640 side of offenses you want to have. 704 00:44:08,920 --> 00:44:11,840 The Packers are an offense you do not want to have. 705 00:44:11,920 --> 00:44:17,200 They look bad, yeah. It's just like, plain and 706 00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:19,160 simple. The Packers don't seem like an 707 00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:23,560 offense that I want a part of, unfortunately. 708 00:44:23,560 --> 00:44:31,160 Aaron Jones 50% snap rate 40% useful sort of 11% rush. 709 00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:37,280 Attends 29% at routes. But I agree where that offense 710 00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:39,800 is pretty abysmal and you sort of need. 711 00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:43,880 If a guy is going to play in that offense and and produce, 712 00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:47,600 they need to get the touchdown and there's usually not that 713 00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:51,200 many to go around. They also they were sellers here 714 00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:54,840 at the trade deadline. And so to me, I mean, not that 715 00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:57,360 this is very different than they've already been operating, 716 00:44:57,360 --> 00:45:01,960 but to me, I would wonder if that means that we see even more 717 00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:07,120 opportunities for, you know, their rookie players or guys 718 00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:09,680 that they're they just don't know exactly what they have. 719 00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:14,680 Maybe we maybe we see the backfield get shaken up a little 720 00:45:14,680 --> 00:45:18,040 bit and we get some of those guys, mix it in, who's, you 721 00:45:18,040 --> 00:45:20,880 know, third and 4th down the depth chart just to see what 722 00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:23,880 they have, 'cause they clearly they're, they're not a big fan 723 00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:25,480 of what they've got of AJ Dillon. 724 00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:30,120 Aaron Jones is not long for this league, so the Packers have a 725 00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:33,400 void to fill a running back. I wouldn't be surprised if later 726 00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:37,560 in the season we see some of these younger guys mix in 727 00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:40,520 Patrick Taylor. Is that is that their third guy 728 00:45:40,520 --> 00:45:43,160 if I'm remembering? Yeah, yeah, he's the Green Bay 729 00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:45,160 guy. He is. 730 00:45:45,680 --> 00:45:52,720 He's 25, so not, but I think he was a rookie last year, yeah, so 731 00:45:52,720 --> 00:45:56,320 I I would wouldn't be surprised. Oh, and he he does show up here 732 00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:59,200 on the chart as well. I didn't, Yeah, he does, Yeah, 733 00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:05,280 at the top of the head. One drafted 3 agents in 2020 for 734 00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:08,600 Green Bay Packers. He he was actually he was on the 735 00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:15,920 New England practice squad as of wait, hold on a second here. 736 00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:19,720 This just says 2 weeks ago the New England Patriots signed them 737 00:46:19,720 --> 00:46:23,920 to their practice squad, Sniped him, sniped him away. 738 00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:28,640 And so that leaves, gosh, who's that other back that they they 739 00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:33,720 had work in there anyway. Wouldn't be surprised. 740 00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:38,080 But then he played at OK. He last played for the Packers 741 00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:45,840 Week 5 S That's, yeah, long, long and short of it. 742 00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:49,360 I wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers kick the tires on a 743 00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:51,080 couple of their deeper on the depth chart. 744 00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:55,360 Running backs, you know, continue to mix in all of their 745 00:46:55,360 --> 00:47:00,440 young wide receivers, get the random Samare Toure looks in 746 00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:05,200 here and there, you know, see what they've got in their their 747 00:47:05,280 --> 00:47:07,280 two young tight ends that they've drafted. 748 00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:11,160 I mean, we've already seen a a good amount of run for Musgrave, 749 00:47:11,680 --> 00:47:16,200 but anyway, other running backs on this backup chart, we 750 00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:21,920 mentioned Royce Freeman a little bit already, no one else. 751 00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:25,760 I really had a ton of, you know, new take away on. 752 00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:27,920 Did you have anyone else you wanted to talk about here? 753 00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:34,160 I think it's it's sort of a little bit interesting that 754 00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:40,000 Cream Hunt, it is still quite low that that does make me think 755 00:47:40,000 --> 00:47:42,880 that. Jerome Ford is still the back to 756 00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:46,600 own in Cleveland. Yeah, 100% agree with you there. 757 00:47:46,600 --> 00:47:50,480 And the fact that they rushed forward back from allegedly a 758 00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:55,000 high, what they call a mild high ankle sprain, which does not get 759 00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:57,800 the. Lowest grade, high ankle sprain 760 00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:00,760 you've ever seen in your life. Yeah, whatever, man. 761 00:48:00,760 --> 00:48:04,680 Whatever we're doing with that. But yeah, the fact that they 762 00:48:04,680 --> 00:48:09,440 rushed him back, it it's clear to me that like the reason that 763 00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:11,680 they didn't have Hunt on the roster to start the season was 764 00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:13,800 they knew he was washed. They didn't like having him on 765 00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:17,040 the field last season and he's purely here out of necessity 766 00:48:17,040 --> 00:48:21,280 now. Like maybe if Pierre Strong. 767 00:48:21,280 --> 00:48:24,080 I I don't know that Pierre Strong could really usurp cream 768 00:48:24,080 --> 00:48:27,840 Hunt for anything. But I mean I'd I'd still keep an 769 00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:29,600 eye out for it. But yeah, the the most relevant 770 00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:34,760 take away is like Jerome Ford is still the one A there and as far 771 00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:37,640 as backs to own and play that's that's the one that you're 772 00:48:37,640 --> 00:48:42,160 really wanting to do. The other guys that I actually 773 00:48:42,160 --> 00:48:46,600 have takeaways on here are guys that I think are are going to be 774 00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:50,360 better to point out on the next the efficiency chart, so. 775 00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:56,280 OK, yeah, let's, let's move on. So we've got the running box 776 00:48:56,280 --> 00:48:59,560 expected points on. Efficiency chart. 777 00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:03,440 So it's rushing expected points on the horizontal, receiving 778 00:49:03,440 --> 00:49:06,640 expected points on the vertical, and the size of the bubble 779 00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:10,040 corresponds to efficiency. And like we mentioned on the 780 00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:12,360 prior chart, this is rolling for a week. 781 00:49:12,720 --> 00:49:16,560 So week five through Week 8, and I'm sorry, I did, I did 782 00:49:16,800 --> 00:49:18,840 interrupt you there. No, you were good. 783 00:49:18,840 --> 00:49:22,760 I was trying to rush to the podium to capitulate because you 784 00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:27,040 were super right last week when you were trying to talk me off 785 00:49:27,040 --> 00:49:30,760 of some potential positive regression for Damien Pierce. 786 00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:33,640 And maybe it was just the rumors about the knee. 787 00:49:33,640 --> 00:49:36,120 Maybe he's going to be fully healthy after the buy and they 788 00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:39,000 just give him a full 20 carry workload. 789 00:49:39,400 --> 00:49:43,720 Nope, it is. It's 100% exactly as you called 790 00:49:43,720 --> 00:49:44,280 it. It is. 791 00:49:44,520 --> 00:49:48,920 Devin Singletary is just the guy that Devin Singletary could 792 00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:52,200 absolutely show up to any coach that he's ever played for his 793 00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:54,520 house and take his daughter out on a date. 794 00:49:54,680 --> 00:49:57,320 They just love something about Devin Singletary. 795 00:49:57,520 --> 00:50:01,040 He's a good man because coaches love him and it's not that Price 796 00:50:01,040 --> 00:50:04,160 has been anything special that he's, you know, he's should be 797 00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:06,320 keeping Singletary off the field. 798 00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:11,720 But yeah, this backfield is for me, like in a in any kind of 799 00:50:11,720 --> 00:50:14,480 format where I'm needing that high single week, upside 800 00:50:14,800 --> 00:50:15,880 complete. Stay away. 801 00:50:15,880 --> 00:50:18,960 I I will not touch Pierce. I will not touch Singletary. 802 00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:23,520 In any kind of like tournament type setting where I need the 803 00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:25,440 upside. The only way you're getting 804 00:50:25,440 --> 00:50:27,960 there is just fluky touchdown luck for. 805 00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:31,920 For here's a here's a crazy stat and and and something that it 806 00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:33,720 blows my blows my mind a little bit. 807 00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:38,600 So for the backfield of Houston and Week 8, the expected points. 808 00:50:39,120 --> 00:50:44,480 For for every running back in in for Houston was 29.3, but the 809 00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:49,600 highest expected point for any individual player was 10.4 for 810 00:50:49,600 --> 00:50:54,120 Damien Pierce. So that's 10.4 Damien Pierce 9. 811 00:50:54,120 --> 00:50:58,240 Devon Singletary And then something called an Andrew Beck 812 00:50:58,480 --> 00:51:05,240 7.9 Mike Boone 2.6 But it's it's. 813 00:51:06,360 --> 00:51:09,680 It's pretty, pretty wild. But what if it just split that 814 00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:11,600 much? What if I told you I've played 815 00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:16,640 some Andrew Beck on Denver Showdown slaves last season when 816 00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:21,240 he was a tight end for them? I mean sounds like a sounds like 817 00:51:21,240 --> 00:51:24,000 a smart showdown showdown It was. 818 00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:27,200 He was running hot at on on touchdowns last season. 819 00:51:27,200 --> 00:51:30,400 But yeah when when I saw him vulture that Damien Pierce 820 00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:33,560 touchdown and I had some Damien Pierce in the dog bowl, I was 821 00:51:33,560 --> 00:51:35,960 like this is this is just fucking perfect. 822 00:51:36,040 --> 00:51:39,840 Andrew Beck comes back to haunt me an entire season later 823 00:51:40,360 --> 00:51:43,280 because I I remember telling. I had a couple buddies. 824 00:51:43,280 --> 00:51:45,800 I was saying like, I'm pretty sure Beck is like Beck's the 825 00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:48,160 skeleton key to the Showdown slate. 826 00:51:48,440 --> 00:51:52,240 Everyone wants to play dulcet. I'm jamming in Beck like this is 827 00:51:52,240 --> 00:51:53,720 great. Insane leverage. 828 00:51:53,720 --> 00:51:56,200 Low owned. I'm solo shipping Millie's and 829 00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:58,960 then Beck does nothing the week that I try to get on him. 830 00:51:59,240 --> 00:52:01,440 And then of course this week where I try to play Damien 831 00:52:01,440 --> 00:52:04,920 Pierce for the first time like ever in my life, Beck vultures A 832 00:52:04,920 --> 00:52:07,560 touchdown. So that was like, it is just 833 00:52:07,560 --> 00:52:09,280 poetic. Sometimes the universe does 834 00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:10,880 stuff like that where it's just beautiful. 835 00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:12,280 You couldn't script it any better. 836 00:52:13,480 --> 00:52:17,520 Well, I'm sure they'll be 0. Hesitant hesitancy to to play 837 00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:20,080 him and Showdown the next opportunity. 838 00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:22,840 Yeah, I I won't X him out of the pool. 839 00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:26,920 How about that? On this chart though, the the 840 00:52:26,920 --> 00:52:32,800 true like star absolute King that we have to talk about and 841 00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:37,600 it it literally it it makes me sick to say anything positive 842 00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:40,080 about this guy, 'cause he's a deplorable human, he should be 843 00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:42,200 in jail. He's a piece of shit attempted 844 00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:46,640 murderer Alvin Kamara. But the role for fantasy, where 845 00:52:46,640 --> 00:52:49,880 he is a, you know, effectively A proxy for random number 846 00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:54,320 generation for us, he sure sure do generate the random numbers 847 00:52:54,320 --> 00:52:58,040 high. So I mean, yeah, like he's he's 848 00:52:58,040 --> 00:53:01,880 getting touchdowns, he's getting involved in the passing game 849 00:53:02,320 --> 00:53:04,400 early. When he had first come back, we 850 00:53:04,400 --> 00:53:08,040 had a huge skew to where so much of his value is coming in and 851 00:53:08,040 --> 00:53:11,200 receiving expected points. Now it's normalized more to 852 00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:13,840 where he he's just so game script proof. 853 00:53:13,840 --> 00:53:16,560 It's like what? It's everything you want out of 854 00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:18,480 a running back. Just incredible, incredible 855 00:53:18,480 --> 00:53:22,720 role. I'm I'm down extremely bad 856 00:53:22,720 --> 00:53:24,560 'cause I have like no Kamara in Bestball. 857 00:53:24,560 --> 00:53:27,120 I just refused to draft him. Thought the suspension could be 858 00:53:27,120 --> 00:53:29,120 way worse. Really went heavy on the Kendray 859 00:53:29,120 --> 00:53:32,760 bags. But yeah, he is an elite, elite 860 00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:36,160 fantasy option going forward just purely because of the role. 861 00:53:36,160 --> 00:53:38,880 It doesn't even matter that he's not so hyper efficient on the 862 00:53:38,880 --> 00:53:40,520 ground. He's a first round pick. 863 00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:45,600 It's just redraft today. Yeah, As stupid as it like, 864 00:53:45,880 --> 00:53:47,560 late. Like into first. 865 00:53:47,560 --> 00:53:52,600 Yeah, the role is so, so good. It's like, 'cause the the Saints 866 00:53:52,600 --> 00:53:54,720 are at least a functional offense where they're like 867 00:53:54,720 --> 00:53:56,440 scoring. They do this thing where they 868 00:53:56,440 --> 00:53:59,880 like accumulate yards and score touchdowns, whereas like the 869 00:54:00,160 --> 00:54:02,640 other guy with this kind of. Role Is he skinny Leonard 870 00:54:02,640 --> 00:54:07,240 Fournette? Yeah, yeah, he's he's skinny. 871 00:54:07,240 --> 00:54:09,840 Like slightly less dusty Leonard Fournette. 872 00:54:09,840 --> 00:54:12,480 I I think that's probably an apartment comparison. 873 00:54:13,800 --> 00:54:17,160 But I I was getting to Saquon Barkley has like a similar role. 874 00:54:17,160 --> 00:54:20,280 It's he he doesn't have as good a passing game role as Kamara 875 00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:22,320 but he's getting so many carries. 876 00:54:22,760 --> 00:54:25,400 But the offense is so trash it doesn't matter. 877 00:54:25,400 --> 00:54:29,400 Like it's so crazy that you could have a role that Saquon 878 00:54:29,400 --> 00:54:33,640 has and and not just smash every single week. 879 00:54:35,480 --> 00:54:39,960 But yeah, Saquon Barkley is like the if, if not priced up like 880 00:54:39,960 --> 00:54:44,160 your dream cash, cash, game, DFS, running back option. 881 00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:47,000 You're just going to touch the ball a billion times and you're 882 00:54:47,000 --> 00:54:52,000 like, well, he can't goose me. He's good for 12 to 14 no matter 883 00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:55,440 what. But yeah, those guys have insane 884 00:54:55,440 --> 00:54:59,320 roles, yeah. Pretty it it is. 885 00:54:59,320 --> 00:55:02,560 Any anytime you see a role with over 20 expected points per 886 00:55:02,560 --> 00:55:06,720 game, it's definitely goes without saying. 887 00:55:06,720 --> 00:55:10,280 Very, very good for fantasy. I do. 888 00:55:10,640 --> 00:55:16,240 I do wonder though and and and push back if you will. 889 00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:21,320 Isn't the sort of like the idea of the elite running backs is 890 00:55:21,320 --> 00:55:25,600 the the legendary upside as our as our friend there and and and 891 00:55:25,600 --> 00:55:29,440 mothership podcasts, Guy Packer Rain says. 892 00:55:29,880 --> 00:55:35,440 And the the legendary upside season does require a good 893 00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:38,040 efficiency. Where it's like 10 expected 894 00:55:38,040 --> 00:55:41,920 points in the receiving, 10 expected points in in rushing 895 00:55:42,200 --> 00:55:46,720 and then five points over expected and and and over the 896 00:55:46,760 --> 00:55:48,840 the big game sample that's how it happens. 897 00:55:49,000 --> 00:55:53,360 So I I think for Camaro where he's going clearly you're 898 00:55:53,360 --> 00:56:00,680 getting a great outcome but him and and Barkley I I I am pretty 899 00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:04,560 hesitant to say that they can both deliver sort of like the 900 00:56:05,040 --> 00:56:08,160 the true. Like grind your face into the 901 00:56:08,160 --> 00:56:12,280 dirt season. Yeah, I think for me, I 902 00:56:12,280 --> 00:56:14,600 definitely would agree with you on Barkley. 903 00:56:14,600 --> 00:56:18,200 I I just don't see it. He has to. 904 00:56:18,520 --> 00:56:20,760 He would just have to one man team it. 905 00:56:20,840 --> 00:56:24,360 You know, like Saquon Barkley's break in breakaway touchdowns 906 00:56:24,360 --> 00:56:27,000 every game for him to get to A. Right. 907 00:56:27,040 --> 00:56:31,240 Yeah, End of the season. And for Kamara, for me, what I 908 00:56:31,240 --> 00:56:34,800 would push back on is you're right that he's not getting 909 00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:38,200 there in the traditional legendary profile that Pat's 910 00:56:38,200 --> 00:56:42,680 outlined, but he's getting there because his expected points are 911 00:56:42,680 --> 00:56:45,200 12:00 and 12:00. It's not ten and ten with 912 00:56:45,200 --> 00:56:48,880 efficiency, it's 12:00 and 12:00 with mediocre efficiency. 913 00:56:49,120 --> 00:56:54,520 And so I I would be very surprised if Kamara puts up in 914 00:56:54,520 --> 00:56:57,840 in even even if we just say from rest the season to end of 915 00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:00,800 season, we throw out the games he's already had and threw out 916 00:57:00,800 --> 00:57:04,240 the suspension. I would still be very surprised 917 00:57:04,240 --> 00:57:07,520 if he gets to like the true legendary 23 point per game 918 00:57:07,760 --> 00:57:13,400 threshold in full PPR. But like we saw in past seasons 919 00:57:13,400 --> 00:57:16,480 where no running back gets there to that legendary threshold, 920 00:57:17,240 --> 00:57:20,640 this is probably, I mean like Christian McCaffrey could get 921 00:57:20,640 --> 00:57:25,760 there this season but otherwise like is there anyone else that 922 00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:29,320 you really see? Is anyone actually live for a 923 00:57:29,320 --> 00:57:33,240 legendary season for the entire season first, and then let's 924 00:57:33,320 --> 00:57:35,080 let's truncate that to the remain. 925 00:57:35,600 --> 00:57:40,240 Utter and CMC. What about Travis CTN? 926 00:57:41,960 --> 00:57:45,720 That's a that's a good question. Let's let's put a pin in that 927 00:57:45,720 --> 00:57:48,480 one till we get to the next chart 'cause I want to use the 928 00:57:48,480 --> 00:57:51,720 expected points kind of look at that. 929 00:57:52,680 --> 00:57:56,960 But then, before we move to this next chart, let's talk about and 930 00:57:56,960 --> 00:58:00,840 for the remainder of the season. Could have the pace that would 931 00:58:00,840 --> 00:58:06,360 be legendary if they were to do it over the entire season on 932 00:58:06,360 --> 00:58:07,680 this. Chart, I think Bruce Hall. 933 00:58:07,680 --> 00:58:10,560 Could get there for sure, yes. I am leading the witness to 934 00:58:10,560 --> 00:58:15,640 Bruce Hall. It's like the rest of the year 935 00:58:15,760 --> 00:58:18,880 focus. On this chart, look at the big 936 00:58:18,920 --> 00:58:20,880 dot. You're seeing the CMC with the 937 00:58:20,880 --> 00:58:21,880 big dot. Yeah. 938 00:58:22,960 --> 00:58:25,560 And that's that was my assessment too, though 939 00:58:25,960 --> 00:58:28,960 earnestly. I think that if we were going to 940 00:58:28,960 --> 00:58:31,600 redo the draft, that's actually a good question. 941 00:58:31,600 --> 00:58:35,360 We redo the draft right now it's the end of the first round. 942 00:58:35,840 --> 00:58:38,800 CMC or excuse me, CM, CS gone already. 943 00:58:38,800 --> 00:58:40,520 He's 101102. Right. 944 00:58:40,760 --> 00:58:43,680 But it's it's Breece Hall and Kamara after all the big 945 00:58:43,680 --> 00:58:45,920 receivers and Travis Kelsey are on the board. 946 00:58:45,920 --> 00:58:48,560 You're into the first round. Who are you taking between? 947 00:58:48,560 --> 00:58:50,920 Kamara or Breece? Yeah, easily, Breece. 948 00:58:50,920 --> 00:58:54,080 Like I I'm. Like I would obviously have to 949 00:58:54,080 --> 00:58:58,160 play the ADBADP game, but. I like if it was a rest of 950 00:58:58,160 --> 00:59:03,080 season from here week nine out I I I would be like thinking to 951 00:59:03,080 --> 00:59:06,320 myself you know I should be taking Breeze Hall here like 952 00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:10,920 even in like the first six picks just and. 953 00:59:11,200 --> 00:59:14,880 And then would you be Kamara or Barkley, let's say you're you 954 00:59:14,880 --> 00:59:19,160 know, second round or or even I, I I think it is Kamara over 955 00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:21,320 Barkley there. For for sort of the reasons 956 00:59:21,320 --> 00:59:22,880 you've outlined there, where his. 957 00:59:23,640 --> 00:59:26,600 He he's got the the the the functional offense. 958 00:59:26,920 --> 00:59:31,400 He's got the nicer receiving role and and sort of more game 959 00:59:31,400 --> 00:59:35,280 script match up proof just because they they want to 960 00:59:35,280 --> 00:59:38,320 involve them so much in their offense in in in all these 961 00:59:38,320 --> 00:59:44,640 various different ways. And then just to to touch on 962 00:59:44,640 --> 00:59:48,800 Jacobs really quick, because Jacobs is like Diet Kamara right 963 00:59:48,800 --> 00:59:51,680 now, 'cause he's bad. He's not actually good at 964 00:59:51,680 --> 00:59:54,920 running the football, which some some people say running back 965 00:59:54,920 --> 00:59:56,400 should be good at running the football. 966 00:59:56,880 --> 01:00:00,400 But he's been atrocious and pretty much any metric that you 967 01:00:00,400 --> 01:00:03,840 look at there. But he has been receiving 968 01:00:04,040 --> 01:00:06,280 targets in the passing game, really. 969 01:00:06,320 --> 01:00:09,520 And you you did see it last night, like when the Raiders are 970 01:00:09,520 --> 01:00:12,440 down, I mean. The offense was entirely non 971 01:00:12,440 --> 01:00:14,720 functional last night, but I don't know that that's going to 972 01:00:14,720 --> 01:00:16,960 be very different going forward for the rest of the season for 973 01:00:16,960 --> 01:00:19,960 the Raiders. But when they're down and they 974 01:00:19,960 --> 01:00:23,560 don't have guys getting open down field, the Jacobs safety 975 01:00:23,560 --> 01:00:27,120 valve is like that is the Jimmy G special. 976 01:00:27,120 --> 01:00:30,040 Like let me let me throw it to Jacobs here and not take a 977 01:00:30,040 --> 01:00:33,000 negative play. I'm trying to think of what the 978 01:00:33,000 --> 01:00:35,920 situation was. I want to say it was a fourth 979 01:00:35,920 --> 01:00:39,920 down. Oh yeah, it was like 4 and seven 980 01:00:39,920 --> 01:00:40,560 or something. And. 981 01:00:40,560 --> 01:00:45,960 You should check down 5 yards short with with no green grass 982 01:00:45,960 --> 01:00:48,240 like is. The only way Jacobs was getting 983 01:00:48,240 --> 01:00:51,760 a first down is if he like picked up the defender and 984 01:00:51,760 --> 01:00:54,960 carried him with him across the five yards. 985 01:00:55,200 --> 01:00:59,200 As I I laughed out loud. I had no chance of of working. 986 01:00:59,440 --> 01:01:02,640 God, God bless Jimmy G the funniest game on the football 987 01:01:02,640 --> 01:01:04,240 field. I'm. 988 01:01:04,240 --> 01:01:05,440 I'm now, I'm. I'm. 989 01:01:05,440 --> 01:01:10,520 Moving my my pendulum or my my meter is moving from you know I 990 01:01:10,520 --> 01:01:15,400 I I'm looking at the long term data and and I'm I'm I'm sort of 991 01:01:15,400 --> 01:01:18,640 suspecting that he's not very good and that he's not going to 992 01:01:18,640 --> 01:01:22,920 be very good and and the more games I get where he's he just 993 01:01:22,920 --> 01:01:27,840 doesn't play well overall the more I'm like OK last year was 994 01:01:27,840 --> 01:01:31,680 an aberration the role is good but. 995 01:01:32,360 --> 01:01:36,680 When the offense is bad and the player is bad, then it it's sort 996 01:01:36,680 --> 01:01:42,320 of like it almost doesn't matter for the role that like you know 997 01:01:42,320 --> 01:01:47,520 it's he's a pretty classic typical dead zone back. 998 01:01:48,320 --> 01:01:52,520 So would you say last year Jacobs was the saviour of the 999 01:01:52,520 --> 01:01:56,920 slappies in that, you know, not a, not a good profile, didn't 1000 01:01:56,920 --> 01:01:59,960 look to be a good back? Probably the argument for the 1001 01:01:59,960 --> 01:02:03,440 Jacobs drafters to not be called slappies was his price 1002 01:02:03,440 --> 01:02:06,760 eventually got depressed to the point where it wasn't a slappy 1003 01:02:06,760 --> 01:02:08,360 pick to take him. But. 1004 01:02:10,280 --> 01:02:14,240 Could you draw a parallel between Jacobs and Adam Thielen 1005 01:02:14,240 --> 01:02:17,920 this year, where you also were in fact a slappy if you're 1006 01:02:17,920 --> 01:02:21,080 selecting Adam Thielen, but by the end of the summer where he 1007 01:02:21,080 --> 01:02:25,480 was so pushed down, it probably was correct to fill up on your 1008 01:02:25,480 --> 01:02:29,400 Thielen shares there. Yeah, TLN. 1009 01:02:29,400 --> 01:02:33,760 Is a little bit I think is a little bit trickier because any 1010 01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:38,000 anytime you have these sort of like second team receivers and 1011 01:02:38,000 --> 01:02:42,520 and this is this sort of speaks to I I like to think of it as 1012 01:02:42,520 --> 01:02:47,800 like. I guess results versus process. 1013 01:02:48,280 --> 01:02:52,600 Whereas obviously the result for Thielen is is very very good. 1014 01:02:53,080 --> 01:02:57,200 But. Even at the cheap price somebody 1015 01:02:57,440 --> 01:03:01,760 like Teal and who was clearly he was and and is at the tail end 1016 01:03:01,760 --> 01:03:07,280 of his career and. Those guys? 1017 01:03:07,680 --> 01:03:08,800 No, almost. No matter. 1018 01:03:08,800 --> 01:03:11,880 How cheap they are? Unless they were once a truly 1019 01:03:11,880 --> 01:03:18,320 elite player, then I think the roster spot that this the 1020 01:03:18,520 --> 01:03:21,360 honestly the opportunity cost the roster spot. 1021 01:03:22,000 --> 01:03:27,960 Is is very important consideration with those older. 1022 01:03:27,960 --> 01:03:31,120 Players and and. And receivers so I don't I don't 1023 01:03:31,120 --> 01:03:35,560 think fading teal and was bad even even knowing the result 1024 01:03:35,960 --> 01:03:40,480 because I think that if you were to replay that over and over I I 1025 01:03:40,480 --> 01:03:44,000 I don't I don't know that you're like expected outcomes are bad 1026 01:03:44,120 --> 01:03:47,120 by not taking him. So do you think? 1027 01:03:47,720 --> 01:03:49,480 I don't think there's an applicable lesson. 1028 01:03:50,080 --> 01:03:53,560 To to put a bow on it and and maybe be the applicable lesson 1029 01:03:53,800 --> 01:03:56,640 missing on players like Jacobs and Thielen. 1030 01:03:56,920 --> 01:03:59,600 Now that we've got a couple, we've got two seasons where 1031 01:03:59,600 --> 01:04:02,760 we've got these guys that are just smashing absolutely winners 1032 01:04:02,920 --> 01:04:05,440 at cost. But you're saying that missing 1033 01:04:05,440 --> 01:04:09,520 on those players is the cost of doing business as a thoughtful 1034 01:04:09,520 --> 01:04:11,960 drafter that's optimizing for the right things. 1035 01:04:12,320 --> 01:04:13,520 Yeah. Yeah, for sure. 1036 01:04:13,520 --> 01:04:15,360 And and the. Other the other part of it is, 1037 01:04:15,360 --> 01:04:18,080 is that like? You're not going. 1038 01:04:18,080 --> 01:04:21,000 You're never like we're humans. We're none of us are you. 1039 01:04:21,000 --> 01:04:24,800 You're kind of a machine but most people aren't machines. 1040 01:04:26,040 --> 01:04:30,600 And the idea of like you're going to have the perfect draft 1041 01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:36,160 every draft and the your your your your ownership levels are 1042 01:04:36,160 --> 01:04:40,080 just going to be perfectly calibrated to perfect it it it 1043 01:04:40,080 --> 01:04:42,840 it's not real like that. That's not a that's not a 1044 01:04:42,840 --> 01:04:45,720 realistic, like, goal for anybody. 1045 01:04:46,320 --> 01:04:49,160 What you're trying to do is even even if you're trying to play 1046 01:04:49,160 --> 01:04:54,160 exploitively and and pick your players and and try to get to 1047 01:04:54,160 --> 01:04:59,400 20% exposure on on lots of guys, what all you're trying to do is 1048 01:04:59,400 --> 01:05:02,640 make sure that you're at your exposure levels are better than 1049 01:05:02,640 --> 01:05:05,880 the field. You're just trying to beat 8888 1050 01:05:05,880 --> 01:05:11,720 for everybody and you can miss on on big smashes and and still 1051 01:05:11,920 --> 01:05:16,000 be better than the field. Just because you're also passing 1052 01:05:16,000 --> 01:05:22,080 on the huge bus and I think too, especially when you're playing 1053 01:05:22,080 --> 01:05:26,120 tournaments there, there's a lot of like luck involved in that 1054 01:05:27,240 --> 01:05:30,560 you you can you can miss on players but if you can build 1 1055 01:05:30,560 --> 01:05:34,040 squad where you hit on a bunch of players you you hit on the 1056 01:05:34,040 --> 01:05:39,120 right players and and the right amount of players across that 1057 01:05:39,120 --> 01:05:42,640 team then. It's like you've done your job, 1058 01:05:42,640 --> 01:05:46,000 you've got your super team, you get to the final and and and you 1059 01:05:46,000 --> 01:05:47,720 you roll the dice and you go from there. 1060 01:05:48,680 --> 01:05:51,120 So maybe that was a bit of a long explanation, but I think 1061 01:05:51,120 --> 01:05:53,800 that was a really, really good explanation. 1062 01:05:53,800 --> 01:05:58,400 It's it's more about the pursuit of the tie, the one roster it 1063 01:05:58,400 --> 01:06:02,920 all comes together on than the individual exposures of getting 1064 01:06:02,920 --> 01:06:07,280 to say that, well, I I got a bunch of Adam Thielen and he, 1065 01:06:07,320 --> 01:06:10,120 he's doing so good, It's like, yeah, well all your teams look 1066 01:06:10,120 --> 01:06:13,280 like shit because you're a donkey, right? 1067 01:06:13,520 --> 01:06:17,480 And I mean like you can still. Like you can still say, hey, I I 1068 01:06:17,480 --> 01:06:21,360 want to target this exposure, I want that exposure, but just 1069 01:06:22,560 --> 01:06:23,960 don't I guess like you're saying. 1070 01:06:23,960 --> 01:06:26,760 Don't sort. Of victory lock one exposure. 1071 01:06:27,200 --> 01:06:29,560 Because it's it's it's across the whole thing. 1072 01:06:29,880 --> 01:06:31,880 But then also don't don't kill yourself. 1073 01:06:32,640 --> 01:06:35,320 If something if something that that you weren't on works out 1074 01:06:35,720 --> 01:06:40,000 like maybe maybe you do need to re evaluate and and and there is 1075 01:06:40,000 --> 01:06:44,280 a lessons in in in learning from data but not always. 1076 01:06:44,280 --> 01:06:49,160 I I feel like not always. OK, let's let's move on to our 1077 01:06:49,160 --> 01:06:53,200 second expected Fantasy points chart here for running backs. 1078 01:06:54,320 --> 01:06:56,640 So and this same chart. And and and. 1079 01:06:56,640 --> 01:07:00,280 People often say, oh, hey. You don't have so and so new 1080 01:07:00,280 --> 01:07:02,440 chart and we're like Oh no, he was on the other one. 1081 01:07:02,920 --> 01:07:07,920 And you're probably better at me explaining how we separate these 1082 01:07:07,920 --> 01:07:10,920 two charts out. Yeah, So what we did just for 1083 01:07:10,920 --> 01:07:15,400 readability, cuz if I combined all of the players on one chart, 1084 01:07:15,480 --> 01:07:19,120 it would just be a you know, complete mess of colorful 1085 01:07:19,120 --> 01:07:22,160 chickenpox of dots where you couldn't read anything. 1086 01:07:22,440 --> 01:07:26,400 So what we do is we order the players based on their expected 1087 01:07:26,400 --> 01:07:28,800 fantasy points, their total between the rushing and 1088 01:07:28,800 --> 01:07:31,680 receiving. We order them in a list and then 1089 01:07:31,680 --> 01:07:35,640 we split them into two sets, the odd set and the even set. 1090 01:07:35,720 --> 01:07:40,200 Where the odd set is the players ranked 13579, etcetera, even 1091 01:07:40,200 --> 01:07:43,560 said is 2468, etcetera. We split them up into two 1092 01:07:43,560 --> 01:07:46,000 charts. That way you get a nice mix of 1093 01:07:46,000 --> 01:07:49,960 guys that are gonna fall in the different bands of each chart. 1094 01:07:49,960 --> 01:07:54,000 So it's it makes them easier to read across. 1095 01:07:54,000 --> 01:08:00,440 And so on this chart, we see Jamir Gibbs emerging in that 1096 01:08:00,640 --> 01:08:05,640 extreme elite alpha roll like Kamara and Barkley had. 1097 01:08:05,640 --> 01:08:09,240 Again, this is only that two games of data that we've got for 1098 01:08:09,240 --> 01:08:13,160 Gibbs, just the way that the rolling four weeks have worked 1099 01:08:13,160 --> 01:08:16,640 out for him. But I I really think that it 1100 01:08:16,680 --> 01:08:21,560 goes to show because between Gibbs and Craig Reynolds, who 1101 01:08:21,560 --> 01:08:24,840 Craig Reynolds on the last chart was in that 5 to 10 expected 1102 01:08:24,840 --> 01:08:28,160 fantasy point band. But between Gibbs and Reynolds 1103 01:08:28,359 --> 01:08:32,680 you're looking at like damn near 30 expected fantasy points for 1104 01:08:32,680 --> 01:08:37,359 the team and and so that is that's a backfield where I'm 1105 01:08:37,359 --> 01:08:41,760 very interested in in having pieces of that just like we 1106 01:08:41,760 --> 01:08:43,800 talked about with Miami in previous weeks. 1107 01:08:45,359 --> 01:08:47,000 But yeah, very important to monitor. 1108 01:08:47,000 --> 01:08:50,279 When Montgomery gets back, how does the workload shift? 1109 01:08:51,479 --> 01:08:55,040 I I just think with either of these backs like for best ball 1110 01:08:55,040 --> 01:08:58,359 you're going to be if you had Jameer Gibbs even at the fourth 1111 01:08:58,359 --> 01:09:00,960 round cost that he was going at, you're going to be happy because 1112 01:09:00,960 --> 01:09:04,040 of the Spike weeks that he's already been able to deliver. 1113 01:09:04,960 --> 01:09:07,160 And if you have David Montgomery, you're going to be 1114 01:09:07,160 --> 01:09:11,040 happy because of the raw points and Spike weeks he's delivered 1115 01:09:11,040 --> 01:09:15,560 at a depressed cost. So both, both great picks there 1116 01:09:17,240 --> 01:09:22,880 a guy that I I wanted to talk about going forward and also to 1117 01:09:23,120 --> 01:09:26,560 to go back on what you had said as far as ETN. 1118 01:09:28,279 --> 01:09:32,640 So you mentioned ETN as a potential legendary type of 1119 01:09:32,640 --> 01:09:36,880 season here and so we see in the rushing he can get that right. 1120 01:09:36,880 --> 01:09:40,600 Like his his expected points per game on the rushing side is is 1121 01:09:40,600 --> 01:09:42,160 elite. He's at that, you know right 1122 01:09:42,160 --> 01:09:45,640 about 12 expected points per game, which is really, you know 1123 01:09:45,640 --> 01:09:47,800 one of the highest marks out there in the league. 1124 01:09:47,800 --> 01:09:50,399 You know, you got Ken Walker maybe a little bit ahead of him, 1125 01:09:51,080 --> 01:09:54,279 but his involvement in the receiving game, as far as his 1126 01:09:54,279 --> 01:09:58,560 expected points per game is lacking a little bit there to 1127 01:09:58,560 --> 01:10:03,040 get to that true, you know, absolute secondary. 1128 01:10:03,040 --> 01:10:06,520 Season. Yeah, and I don't think that 1129 01:10:06,520 --> 01:10:09,960 it's for lack of opportunity. He's running more routes this 1130 01:10:09,960 --> 01:10:13,520 season. And So what I would say is he's 1131 01:10:13,520 --> 01:10:16,760 like, right on that borderline of he probably can't give you a 1132 01:10:16,760 --> 01:10:23,520 legendary season this year, but for me, it's a guy where you 1133 01:10:23,520 --> 01:10:26,760 know, whenever he's either. Overlooked by the field or 1134 01:10:27,040 --> 01:10:30,560 undervalued, Underpriced, whatever it is, that's a back 1135 01:10:30,560 --> 01:10:33,520 where you should be really happy to play him. 1136 01:10:33,680 --> 01:10:36,480 Now this last week, for reference, in the dog bowl he 1137 01:10:36,480 --> 01:10:39,960 was at the beginning of the week he was, you know, the second 1138 01:10:39,960 --> 01:10:42,720 back off the board after only CMC. 1139 01:10:43,320 --> 01:10:46,760 And that was a spot where I'm willing to pass on the price 1140 01:10:46,760 --> 01:10:49,960 because you could get guys like Kamara and Breece Hall and 1141 01:10:49,960 --> 01:10:54,840 Saquon later and not have to pay such a premium there. 1142 01:10:55,240 --> 01:10:58,240 But I would say when when the roles are reversed and when you 1143 01:10:58,240 --> 01:11:02,400 have ETN going behind that cohort of guys, it's real. 1144 01:11:02,400 --> 01:11:05,840 It just becomes a price game. Just know like what type of back 1145 01:11:05,840 --> 01:11:08,960 he is. Like for example, just in a 1146 01:11:08,960 --> 01:11:13,840 vacuum, let's say that Saquan and ETN in a future dog bowl 1147 01:11:13,840 --> 01:11:16,880 draft are going right back-to-back to each other. 1148 01:11:17,200 --> 01:11:21,920 Who would you prefer in that scenario if it's Saquon? 1149 01:11:21,920 --> 01:11:24,080 Or ETN, yeah. It's ETN all day. 1150 01:11:24,440 --> 01:11:26,560 Yeah, right. And so it's just just knowing, 1151 01:11:26,560 --> 01:11:29,680 like to be price sensitive on him and when he's in that cohort 1152 01:11:29,680 --> 01:11:33,760 of eyes that belong with him, as far as expected fantasy points, 1153 01:11:33,760 --> 01:11:37,000 they can't go alongside. CMC, Right, yeah. 1154 01:11:37,000 --> 01:11:39,480 Don't don't take him alongside. It's just going to beat the piss 1155 01:11:39,520 --> 01:11:42,240 out of him. But if if you're talking about 1156 01:11:42,240 --> 01:11:45,080 the guys who have elite. Roles, but they don't have his 1157 01:11:45,080 --> 01:11:50,000 talent and efficiency. Then he he He's an easy bet over 1158 01:11:50,000 --> 01:11:51,160 them. Thank you. 1159 01:11:51,360 --> 01:11:54,320 A much more succinct way of saying what I was rambling 1160 01:11:54,320 --> 01:11:59,040 towards. No, no, that was I I I. 1161 01:11:59,080 --> 01:12:01,960 That was helpful for me as well because it it it helped me frame 1162 01:12:01,960 --> 01:12:04,880 better frame how to think about ETN as well. 1163 01:12:06,760 --> 01:12:09,560 I've got a. Got a question for you on Swift. 1164 01:12:11,120 --> 01:12:14,440 So Swift is interesting to me. And you know we've talked about 1165 01:12:14,440 --> 01:12:19,720 what an elite offense it is. You know the the role is good. 1166 01:12:20,080 --> 01:12:23,920 He's clearly the 1A. But like this week there were 1167 01:12:23,920 --> 01:12:27,280 spots especially in the first half as I was watching this game 1168 01:12:27,760 --> 01:12:32,760 as a very interested you know had had lots of Eagles all over 1169 01:12:32,760 --> 01:12:37,320 all my entire fantasy portfolio between Bestball, Dog Bowl DFS 1170 01:12:37,320 --> 01:12:41,440 what have you and I. I just found myself getting so 1171 01:12:41,440 --> 01:12:46,760 frustrated watching Kenny Gainwell who to me this this 1172 01:12:46,760 --> 01:12:49,640 might this is probably biased because I had everyone but Kenny 1173 01:12:49,640 --> 01:12:52,320 Gainwell and it was very vivid to me watching how shitty he 1174 01:12:52,320 --> 01:12:55,320 looked. But does Kenny Gainwell look 1175 01:12:55,320 --> 01:12:58,560 worse than previous years Kenny Gainwell has looked? 1176 01:12:58,560 --> 01:13:01,880 Because I feel like in past years it always was oh Gainwell 1177 01:13:01,880 --> 01:13:03,880 doesn't get a ton of opportunities but he always 1178 01:13:03,880 --> 01:13:06,840 looks good with what he gets and but the team doesn't involve him 1179 01:13:06,840 --> 01:13:09,200 a ton and you know we like Gainwell. 1180 01:13:09,200 --> 01:13:13,240 The team likes Gainwell for me, watching this, the first half of 1181 01:13:13,240 --> 01:13:16,720 this game, I felt like every time gainwell touched the ball 1182 01:13:17,040 --> 01:13:19,480 was like, why did we waste a play on this? 1183 01:13:19,480 --> 01:13:22,960 This was stupid, right? Right. 1184 01:13:23,640 --> 01:13:30,120 You you have a an All Star level talented offense like truly 1185 01:13:30,120 --> 01:13:34,640 truly offensive line quarterback receivers tight end Yonder swift 1186 01:13:35,160 --> 01:13:38,360 and it. I I agree with your assessment 1187 01:13:38,360 --> 01:13:43,680 that and. He is is not he's not up to 1188 01:13:43,680 --> 01:13:47,640 their caliber he's he's and and maybe maybe it's more obvious 1189 01:13:48,080 --> 01:13:51,400 than previous years because of the the surrounding talent. 1190 01:13:51,720 --> 01:13:55,240 Now obviously a lot of these are returning players but I I would 1191 01:13:55,240 --> 01:13:58,480 say that Swift is is better than than Paula Sanders. 1192 01:13:58,880 --> 01:14:01,720 So maybe the comparison there is is tougher on him. 1193 01:14:02,440 --> 01:14:03,800 That's fair. That might be. 1194 01:14:03,800 --> 01:14:05,560 But he definitely hasn't played well. 1195 01:14:05,560 --> 01:14:08,600 Gainwell's not. Played well and and So what I 1196 01:14:08,600 --> 01:14:12,640 would what I want to know is and this is we're going to start 1197 01:14:12,640 --> 01:14:15,640 getting into having to make assumptions about rational 1198 01:14:15,640 --> 01:14:17,360 coaching which is always dangerous. 1199 01:14:18,960 --> 01:14:23,320 Are the Eagles going to see? What we're seeing and say gosh 1200 01:14:23,320 --> 01:14:26,360 Kenny, we love you, you're our guy you know we're we're going 1201 01:14:26,360 --> 01:14:31,240 to have you you know take some snaps but it is his opportunity 1202 01:14:31,760 --> 01:14:34,600 could we see Swift's opportunity increase is really what I'm 1203 01:14:34,600 --> 01:14:38,080 asking because that's what I'm interested in right and. 1204 01:14:39,200 --> 01:14:40,640 I think that's what we should see. 1205 01:14:41,920 --> 01:14:43,880 But I don't. I don't know. 1206 01:14:44,360 --> 01:14:46,400 Like what? What I get sort of caught up on 1207 01:14:46,400 --> 01:14:52,360 is that the coaches, coaching Staffs frequently have a guy 1208 01:14:52,360 --> 01:14:56,480 where they just trust when he's in there that he's not going to 1209 01:14:56,480 --> 01:15:00,800 screw up in some monumental way. That the stuff that they're 1210 01:15:00,800 --> 01:15:03,120 looking at like, oh, he's running the right route. 1211 01:15:03,240 --> 01:15:07,240 Oh, he's he's got his. Let's pick up stuff on point. 1212 01:15:09,080 --> 01:15:11,800 Nobody has to remind them what the play is as they're breaking 1213 01:15:11,800 --> 01:15:15,720 the huddle like and and and stuff like that where it's like 1214 01:15:15,720 --> 01:15:18,760 stuff that we don't care about that maybe may it feels like 1215 01:15:18,760 --> 01:15:22,440 maybe he's doing he's the type of guy that might be doing that 1216 01:15:22,440 --> 01:15:27,240 quite well and and when. The offense is rolling that. 1217 01:15:27,240 --> 01:15:28,840 Like, it's not like a pain point. 1218 01:15:29,760 --> 01:15:34,320 But at the same time, I I do I do think it's true that. 1219 01:15:35,120 --> 01:15:38,200 Somebody who is playing inefficiently and and not 1220 01:15:38,200 --> 01:15:43,520 particularly well amongst better players that that like them 1221 01:15:43,520 --> 01:15:46,480 keeping their opportunity shares is always going to be fragile 1222 01:15:47,160 --> 01:15:50,960 because it just takes somebody else to to keep playing well. 1223 01:15:50,960 --> 01:15:57,560 It just takes one play or one game where or or two games where 1224 01:15:57,560 --> 01:16:00,400 it's like OK, we we we just can't do this anymore. 1225 01:16:00,400 --> 01:16:03,960 We we we we need to to to change things up a bit. 1226 01:16:04,240 --> 01:16:07,320 So I I do. I do think that there's 1227 01:16:07,320 --> 01:16:11,840 definitely a chance where they they they take the ball from 1228 01:16:12,120 --> 01:16:16,520 gainwell. But it it it, it's a bit harder 1229 01:16:16,680 --> 01:16:20,000 when the team is this good, it it it's harder for me to be 1230 01:16:20,000 --> 01:16:23,880 confident about it. So here's here's a question 1231 01:16:23,880 --> 01:16:25,480 I've. Got going forward. 1232 01:16:25,480 --> 01:16:29,760 So we talked about how Javante may be earning more opportunity 1233 01:16:29,760 --> 01:16:34,640 going forward and we're not entirely sure we, we think Swift 1234 01:16:34,640 --> 01:16:37,600 should earn more opportunity. But you see Javante's in that 1235 01:16:37,600 --> 01:16:42,800 cluster there with Darrell Henderson and Chuba Hubbard and 1236 01:16:42,800 --> 01:16:47,080 David Montgomery right there in that 10 to 15 expected fantasy 1237 01:16:47,080 --> 01:16:51,040 points band. I would assume that we could 1238 01:16:51,040 --> 01:16:54,960 certainly see him moving up into that 15 to 20 range. 1239 01:16:55,680 --> 01:17:00,960 Now who do you prefer REST? Of season knowing, you know, the 1240 01:17:00,960 --> 01:17:05,280 trend that we're seeing with Javante versus Swift, where it's 1241 01:17:05,280 --> 01:17:07,880 a little ambiguous if he's going to get more work or not, but 1242 01:17:07,880 --> 01:17:10,480 he's already in that 15 to 20 point threshold. 1243 01:17:10,920 --> 01:17:13,920 Do you, do you have a strong lean one way or another between 1244 01:17:13,920 --> 01:17:18,560 Javante or Swift rest of season? I think I still. 1245 01:17:18,560 --> 01:17:22,920 Would be. Swift because the like you're 1246 01:17:22,920 --> 01:17:24,800 you're talking about somebody with. 1247 01:17:25,600 --> 01:17:28,800 Already that they're already getting the role that we'd like 1248 01:17:28,800 --> 01:17:33,160 to see for Javante and so we're we're doing a little bit of 1249 01:17:33,160 --> 01:17:37,040 rejection here with Javante and you don't have to do that for 1250 01:17:37,040 --> 01:17:39,280 Swift. You just like that that's that's 1251 01:17:39,280 --> 01:17:41,600 the amount of snaps that he plays that's that's those are 1252 01:17:41,600 --> 01:17:45,920 the opportunities that he gets and then when you when you sort 1253 01:17:45,920 --> 01:17:49,520 of point out that the Eagles offense is much better that's 1254 01:17:49,520 --> 01:17:52,760 helpful. Somebody might say, well, you 1255 01:17:52,760 --> 01:17:55,120 know. Jalen Hurts steals these 1256 01:17:55,120 --> 01:17:57,920 touchdowns with the tush push and whatnot, but that's already 1257 01:17:57,920 --> 01:18:01,840 factored in in in the Expected Points that Swift is not 1258 01:18:01,840 --> 01:18:04,120 getting. Even Despite that, he's still 1259 01:18:04,120 --> 01:18:10,480 getting your your 15 to 20 expected points and is is, is 1260 01:18:10,480 --> 01:18:11,560 not. Coming off the. 1261 01:18:11,560 --> 01:18:16,120 ACL tear I I, I I'm pretty. I think I'm pretty. 1262 01:18:16,120 --> 01:18:19,960 Strongly swift over Javante. Yeah, I I I would be too. 1263 01:18:19,960 --> 01:18:23,320 I thought it was a good, good point to compare as we talk 1264 01:18:23,320 --> 01:18:25,160 about Javante potentially trending up. 1265 01:18:25,680 --> 01:18:29,840 One interesting aside regarding the tush push before we move on 1266 01:18:29,840 --> 01:18:33,160 to the tight end chart here, I don't know if you saw that 1267 01:18:33,160 --> 01:18:36,320 Washington figured out a counter to the tush push. 1268 01:18:36,320 --> 01:18:41,640 I'm very curious to see if other teams pick up on this and are 1269 01:18:41,640 --> 01:18:44,000 able to execute it the way that Washington did. 1270 01:18:44,480 --> 01:18:48,120 But for anyone who didn't see that play, essentially what 1271 01:18:48,120 --> 01:18:53,120 Washington did was they leaned into the strength of the tush 1272 01:18:53,120 --> 01:18:56,440 push and said we know that you can get lower than us, you can 1273 01:18:56,440 --> 01:18:58,960 have the low, you can win low, go ahead. 1274 01:18:59,360 --> 01:19:03,960 And they sent defenders over the top to punch the ball out from 1275 01:19:03,960 --> 01:19:08,560 Hertz up top and where everyone on the Eagles is interested in 1276 01:19:08,560 --> 01:19:10,960 getting as low as they possibly can get. 1277 01:19:12,000 --> 01:19:15,280 Truly no one contesting. Defenders coming over the top. 1278 01:19:16,080 --> 01:19:20,120 Then it's just a game of how many punches on that football 1279 01:19:20,120 --> 01:19:25,600 can Jalen Hurts withstand? And then #2 is now that teams 1280 01:19:25,600 --> 01:19:29,240 kind of have, you know this is an option to try and beat it. 1281 01:19:29,840 --> 01:19:33,840 How many opportunities do you really want to give teams to 1282 01:19:33,840 --> 01:19:37,320 just full on cock back and punch the shit out of your 1283 01:19:37,320 --> 01:19:41,400 quarterbacks, arms at hand? You know, like if I not, you 1284 01:19:41,400 --> 01:19:43,000 know, no one's, no one's out here. 1285 01:19:43,160 --> 01:19:46,680 You know, bounty gate hunting for, you know, injuring players. 1286 01:19:46,680 --> 01:19:50,440 But if I'm if I'm a defensive coordinator and I'm talking 1287 01:19:50,440 --> 01:19:52,480 about how we're going to shut down the tush push, I'm like, 1288 01:19:52,800 --> 01:19:55,360 you make if they're getting the touchdown from it, you make them 1289 01:19:55,360 --> 01:19:58,800 pay that that hand better be swollen as shit when Jalen goes 1290 01:19:58,800 --> 01:20:03,440 to the sideline if he doesn't fumble that ball, you know, not 1291 01:20:03,440 --> 01:20:07,360 everybody knows this. In my last year I I sorry. 1292 01:20:07,640 --> 01:20:09,960 When I lived in Ireland I coached American football. 1293 01:20:10,120 --> 01:20:16,560 My last year I was a defensive coordinator and and maybe maybe 1294 01:20:16,560 --> 01:20:19,560 people are going to be mad at me for saying this but if your 1295 01:20:19,560 --> 01:20:22,960 quarterback was running it like that that was that was that was 1296 01:20:22,960 --> 01:20:24,880 the thing we always had to emphasize if he's going to run 1297 01:20:24,880 --> 01:20:26,360 it you have to hit the shit out of him. 1298 01:20:27,080 --> 01:20:31,080 And so I think that's like just a basic sort of like maybe maybe 1299 01:20:31,080 --> 01:20:36,160 ugly side of football where it's just a basic principle and it's 1300 01:20:36,400 --> 01:20:39,520 I I I think I I think that's a pretty interesting point I I I 1301 01:20:39,520 --> 01:20:41,680 hadn't I hadn't seen that myself I hadn't realized. 1302 01:20:41,680 --> 01:20:45,000 But I I definitely agree with you where that that seems like a 1303 01:20:45,000 --> 01:20:50,600 pretty effective counter. Jalen Hurts is a big boy, but at 1304 01:20:50,600 --> 01:20:52,600 the same time you want that trying hands. 1305 01:20:53,560 --> 01:20:55,680 Yeah, don't don't matter how big or. 1306 01:20:55,680 --> 01:20:59,360 Strong you are when another big strong man just smashes your 1307 01:20:59,360 --> 01:21:00,800 hand. I mean a football's hard, 1308 01:21:00,800 --> 01:21:04,960 football's a rock basically. You can get your hand smashed by 1309 01:21:04,960 --> 01:21:06,920 another big ass man. That's not going to feel good. 1310 01:21:06,920 --> 01:21:10,520 The other thing is too, like if a guy really gets over the pile 1311 01:21:10,520 --> 01:21:14,160 and gets like a palomalu style flying leap at it and you just 1312 01:21:14,160 --> 01:21:15,720 put your face mask right on that. 1313 01:21:16,040 --> 01:21:20,720 Like that's that's not a recipe that you want to run back a lot 1314 01:21:20,720 --> 01:21:24,200 of times for your quarterbacks. So right I I'm putting a it's a 1315 01:21:24,200 --> 01:21:27,760 vulnerability for the I I wanna I wanna watch it going forward 1316 01:21:27,760 --> 01:21:31,960 the Eagles. Did of course show a look that 1317 01:21:31,960 --> 01:21:35,480 they are able to remain multiple from the tush push formation, 1318 01:21:36,120 --> 01:21:38,640 right? So love, love the game theory of 1319 01:21:38,640 --> 01:21:39,960 that stuff. Yeah, yeah. 1320 01:21:40,480 --> 01:21:41,880 I thought it was worth bringing up. 1321 01:21:43,200 --> 01:21:44,560 All right, let's, let's get into tight ends. 1322 01:21:44,560 --> 01:21:46,480 Unless there was any other running back you wanted to go 1323 01:21:46,480 --> 01:21:50,440 over. And yeah, we're bringing up the 1324 01:21:50,480 --> 01:21:55,880 Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet stuff where I know 1325 01:21:55,880 --> 01:21:58,120 they actually sort of split the snaps last week. 1326 01:21:58,520 --> 01:22:02,720 But I I do think it's also worth calling out that Kenny Kenneth 1327 01:22:02,720 --> 01:22:09,040 Walker, he did have an injury going into the game and I I. 1328 01:22:09,080 --> 01:22:12,400 I would be. I'd be extremely surprised if 1329 01:22:12,400 --> 01:22:18,360 that 5050 SNAP share continued going into next week, but it was 1330 01:22:18,360 --> 01:22:22,000 something that that sort of like was in the stats this week and 1331 01:22:22,000 --> 01:22:23,800 something to look at for going forward. 1332 01:22:25,080 --> 01:22:27,480 Yeah, for me, I would say. The the signal on. 1333 01:22:27,480 --> 01:22:30,960 That that I'm taking away is the contingent value of Charbonnet 1334 01:22:30,960 --> 01:22:32,680 is just still very strong, right? 1335 01:22:33,640 --> 01:22:40,080 Yeah, pretty, pretty fair. But again it it like I'm not 1336 01:22:40,080 --> 01:22:42,880 saying it's the most like like the outcome, but something to 1337 01:22:42,880 --> 01:22:45,960 watch for where they become 5050. 1338 01:22:46,520 --> 01:22:50,080 I that would be a worry for me. I don't want to see it happen. 1339 01:22:50,080 --> 01:22:53,880 I I don't think it'll happen. But again it's something that 1340 01:22:53,880 --> 01:22:55,840 happened that we're keeping an eye on. 1341 01:22:56,360 --> 01:22:59,680 So yeah, let's say let's take a look at our tight ends and I'm 1342 01:22:59,680 --> 01:23:01,200 going to assume this out just a little bit. 1343 01:23:01,880 --> 01:23:06,240 So we've got our tight end utilization and efficiency, and 1344 01:23:06,240 --> 01:23:07,800 these are our starter tight ends. 1345 01:23:08,320 --> 01:23:12,040 And with tight ends, the most important part is just that 1346 01:23:12,040 --> 01:23:15,480 they're running a route on a really high percentage of their 1347 01:23:15,480 --> 01:23:19,240 team's drop backs where they're not having the pass block a lot. 1348 01:23:19,480 --> 01:23:24,800 They're not their, their team isn't rotating them out with 1349 01:23:24,800 --> 01:23:28,640 another tight end or using other personnel that they're just on 1350 01:23:28,640 --> 01:23:31,560 the field running routes. And then the other part of it, 1351 01:23:31,560 --> 01:23:34,360 and This is why we look at targets for a run, is that 1352 01:23:34,360 --> 01:23:38,040 they're an important part of their team's offence. 1353 01:23:38,440 --> 01:23:41,680 So you can see Mark Andrews, he tops the red chair. 1354 01:23:42,240 --> 01:23:46,800 He has a targets per out run of 20% love the C dot and then he 1355 01:23:46,800 --> 01:23:51,760 has an A dot of 8.3, which isn't the highest but it's not your 1356 01:23:51,760 --> 01:23:57,080 sort of typical like Evan Ingram for yard, A dot at your David 1357 01:23:57,080 --> 01:24:01,000 and Joe Gu 2.7. It's it's a respectable A dot. 1358 01:24:03,000 --> 01:24:03,880 Yeah. I I. 1359 01:24:03,880 --> 01:24:06,640 Loved just the way. That the chart shook out this 1360 01:24:06,640 --> 01:24:12,320 week because to me it really crystallized what everyone is as 1361 01:24:12,320 --> 01:24:15,560 far as like where they fall in the Titan landscape and pecking 1362 01:24:15,560 --> 01:24:17,240 order. And so I'm just gonna kind of 1363 01:24:17,240 --> 01:24:20,440 rapid fire and go through some of my takeaways that I had here. 1364 01:24:21,360 --> 01:24:24,040 Like clearly number one is Travis Kelsey. 1365 01:24:24,040 --> 01:24:27,840 He's still got that elite roll, 31% targets per route run. 1366 01:24:28,440 --> 01:24:32,240 A dot of 7.4, so not the deepest A dot, but he's just so involved 1367 01:24:32,240 --> 01:24:34,280 that it doesn't matter. You can get there on the raw 1368 01:24:34,280 --> 01:24:37,800 volume, he still can deliver splash plays like obviously 1369 01:24:37,800 --> 01:24:41,960 elite, elite. Then you've got the more 1370 01:24:41,960 --> 01:24:48,120 consistent, more involved type of guys with lower A dots as far 1371 01:24:48,120 --> 01:24:52,000 as like you're still top strong, strong tight ends and that's Sam 1372 01:24:52,000 --> 01:24:55,960 Laporta and TJ Hawkinson, both with identical 24% targets per 1373 01:24:55,960 --> 01:24:58,920 route run. Both with very similar a dots of 1374 01:24:58,920 --> 01:25:02,760 6.9 and 6.8. And I think it's really cool to 1375 01:25:02,760 --> 01:25:05,240 see that because you can kind of see the way that their 1376 01:25:05,240 --> 01:25:09,760 production comes as well is that they have like that more 1377 01:25:09,760 --> 01:25:13,000 consistent floor where that high targets per route run and lower 1378 01:25:13,040 --> 01:25:15,160 a dot. Those guys are just involved 1379 01:25:15,160 --> 01:25:16,640 more often. It's way harder for them to 1380 01:25:16,640 --> 01:25:19,680 goose you. And then you move on to the 1381 01:25:19,680 --> 01:25:23,000 other guys that are still in that you know absolute top tier 1382 01:25:23,000 --> 01:25:26,800 echelon of tight ends of Mark Andrews and George Kittle where 1383 01:25:26,800 --> 01:25:29,680 they've got slightly lower but still very good targets for 1384 01:25:29,680 --> 01:25:34,520 route run of 20 and 19% deeper a dots than we're seeing on those 1385 01:25:34,520 --> 01:25:38,240 TJ Hawkinson, Sam Laporta, you know heavily involved but more 1386 01:25:38,240 --> 01:25:41,480 underneath type guys. And so these tight ends are the 1387 01:25:41,480 --> 01:25:44,480 ones where when Andrews and Kittle have gotten there this 1388 01:25:44,480 --> 01:25:49,240 season, they've done it in those big nuclear type splash weeks, 1389 01:25:49,240 --> 01:25:52,040 right where they're having a big spike week and delivering that. 1390 01:25:53,000 --> 01:25:56,040 And so I thought that was really cool just the way all these guys 1391 01:25:56,040 --> 01:25:59,080 shook out and then getting to that bottom. 1392 01:25:59,400 --> 01:26:03,960 So I think calling those five tight end, those are those are 1393 01:26:04,360 --> 01:26:08,200 you know very different than the rest of the tight ends that are 1394 01:26:08,200 --> 01:26:10,560 available. You know, for for you to play in 1395 01:26:10,560 --> 01:26:14,040 fantasy, it's those five. And then for me it's a clear 1396 01:26:14,040 --> 01:26:20,160 tier break and that next tier is Dallas Goddard, Evan Ingram and 1397 01:26:20,160 --> 01:26:22,480 Jake Ferguson who you can also see. 1398 01:26:22,480 --> 01:26:26,480 And for me it's that Evan Ingram is the clear like lead of that 1399 01:26:26,480 --> 01:26:29,880 tier with again a targets per route run that's going to be 1400 01:26:29,880 --> 01:26:34,400 more similar to like a Sam LaPorte, TJ Hawkinson. 1401 01:26:35,760 --> 01:26:39,000 You know, he's up at 22%, but he's also got that really low 1402 01:26:39,000 --> 01:26:44,600 eight out of four Point O and Goddard and Ferguson both 5.25 1403 01:26:44,600 --> 01:26:48,160 point 3A dot lower targets per route run of 17 and 18% 1404 01:26:48,160 --> 01:26:51,120 respectively. And so for me, Dallas Goddard is 1405 01:26:51,120 --> 01:26:54,360 just fancy Evan Ingram, but we were drafting Dallas Goddard, 1406 01:26:54,880 --> 01:26:56,960 you know, more more aggressively there. 1407 01:26:58,120 --> 01:27:00,880 And I I had called out Evan Ingram as, as someone in a a 1408 01:27:00,880 --> 01:27:04,560 Discord channel mentioned, oh, Evan Ingram was such a terrible 1409 01:27:04,560 --> 01:27:07,880 pick in Battle Royales and you know, bad pick in the dog books. 1410 01:27:07,880 --> 01:27:10,640 He's going 100% drafted and there were other guys going 1411 01:27:10,640 --> 01:27:14,440 undrafted and he's the same thing as all these other guys. 1412 01:27:14,440 --> 01:27:19,680 And for me, that was such a like critical misunderstanding of 1413 01:27:19,680 --> 01:27:23,800 what Evan Ingram is as far as his role where it's hey, Evan 1414 01:27:23,800 --> 01:27:27,920 Ingram has enough. Opportunity in a week where he 1415 01:27:27,920 --> 01:27:32,560 can deliver such a monster week compared to the guys that were 1416 01:27:32,560 --> 01:27:36,000 going undrafted. You know, like I I like Logan 1417 01:27:36,000 --> 01:27:37,200 Thomas. Let's just look at the points. 1418 01:27:37,680 --> 01:27:40,040 Yeah, Logan, Logan, Thomas, Dalton, Schultz. 1419 01:27:40,080 --> 01:27:43,480 I liked both of them for dog bowl this week, but to say that 1420 01:27:43,480 --> 01:27:46,360 these guys who are going you know Logan Thomas is undrafted 1421 01:27:46,360 --> 01:27:48,360 off and Dalton Schultz was drafted in most of them. 1422 01:27:49,080 --> 01:27:53,520 But to say like that Logan Thomas and Evan Ingram. 1423 01:27:53,920 --> 01:27:57,640 Are similar in their ceiling is just like you're missing a whole 1424 01:27:57,640 --> 01:28:01,760 chunk of the right tail for Evan Ingram and it it was born out 1425 01:28:01,760 --> 01:28:05,600 this week in a rainy game where I mean shoot maybe maybe could 1426 01:28:05,600 --> 01:28:07,600 have been even better for him if not for the weather. 1427 01:28:07,600 --> 01:28:11,800 But guy had what like 11 targets or something for 88 yards and he 1428 01:28:11,800 --> 01:28:15,080 didn't get in the end zone and underdogs only half PPR, so it 1429 01:28:15,440 --> 01:28:17,040 doesn't show up quite as much there. 1430 01:28:17,040 --> 01:28:19,720 But I thought. I thought Evan Ingram was just 1431 01:28:19,720 --> 01:28:21,840 such a smash demonstration of the role. 1432 01:28:22,320 --> 01:28:24,600 Yeah, exactly. But love I just. 1433 01:28:24,840 --> 01:28:27,320 I was so tickled when I looked at the chart of like, Oh my 1434 01:28:27,320 --> 01:28:30,800 gosh, it was like the clearest tears that you could possibly 1435 01:28:30,800 --> 01:28:32,840 imagine for these guys. So that was fun. 1436 01:28:32,840 --> 01:28:38,160 So why do you think of Kolka man because it it it strikes me as 1437 01:28:38,160 --> 01:28:44,000 being a definitely a positive surprise and and where 20% 1438 01:28:44,000 --> 01:28:47,440 targets per out run and he's he's running a good amount of 1439 01:28:47,440 --> 01:28:52,600 routes like that obviously you you you never. 1440 01:28:52,600 --> 01:28:55,240 Want to pay for a guy with that profile or so? 1441 01:28:55,560 --> 01:28:58,480 You never want to overpay because you're hitting you're 1442 01:28:58,480 --> 01:29:01,600 hitting the the mid range and the bottom can just fall out 1443 01:29:01,600 --> 01:29:04,320 there. But that that does seem 1444 01:29:04,320 --> 01:29:08,240 interesting to me where unless you have some of the guys that 1445 01:29:08,240 --> 01:29:11,400 you mentioned there, you probably should be starting Co 1446 01:29:11,400 --> 01:29:14,440 command. Yeah, for me, the Cole Comet 1447 01:29:14,440 --> 01:29:15,440 stuff. Is. 1448 01:29:15,440 --> 01:29:18,040 It's exactly what we saw with Cole Comet last season, where 1449 01:29:18,040 --> 01:29:21,280 it's like, did Cole Comet have a big splash player? 1450 01:29:21,280 --> 01:29:23,560 A touchdown? This was Cole Comet, you know, 1451 01:29:23,560 --> 01:29:27,240 inexplicably left wide open with no defender within 20 yards of 1452 01:29:27,240 --> 01:29:29,640 him. It's a good Cole Comet week, and 1453 01:29:29,640 --> 01:29:32,800 so it's the same thing we saw last season from Cole Comet, but 1454 01:29:32,800 --> 01:29:36,240 the fact that that stuff just keeps happening to Cole Comet. 1455 01:29:36,800 --> 01:29:39,760 Is it just an accident, right? Like there's something about 1456 01:29:39,760 --> 01:29:44,080 Cole Comet or the situation where it allows him to get, you 1457 01:29:44,080 --> 01:29:46,800 know, in a situation where there's no defender within 20 1458 01:29:46,800 --> 01:29:48,720 yards and he's scoring these big touchdowns. 1459 01:29:48,720 --> 01:29:53,080 So his average expected point this year through eight games 1460 01:29:53,600 --> 01:29:57,440 or, well, seven games for him is that 12.1. 1461 01:29:57,960 --> 01:30:02,920 And he's had like expected points of like 14.719 point 914 1462 01:30:02,920 --> 01:30:07,400 point, 116.7, like, yeah, that feels pretty good. 1463 01:30:07,440 --> 01:30:14,240 Like that feels like more than OK well he was wide open for a 1464 01:30:14,240 --> 01:30:15,840 big push down. So we had a good week. 1465 01:30:16,040 --> 01:30:19,960 But that feels like when when the offense is going like he's a 1466 01:30:19,960 --> 01:30:21,960 big part of it. Yeah, that's. 1467 01:30:21,960 --> 01:30:24,160 Anyway, that's that's. Certainly fair. 1468 01:30:24,160 --> 01:30:25,160 Yeah. I might have might have been 1469 01:30:25,160 --> 01:30:27,280 underselling him a little bit there. 1470 01:30:27,640 --> 01:30:32,520 I would the way I would frame it and like an actual take away I 1471 01:30:32,520 --> 01:30:35,280 would try to have there is like as far as. 1472 01:30:35,920 --> 01:30:39,520 You know, like if you got Cole Comet in your season long 1473 01:30:39,520 --> 01:30:41,600 league, like you're probably starting, you know, like you're 1474 01:30:41,600 --> 01:30:45,320 starting him I guess. But like in best fall going 1475 01:30:45,320 --> 01:30:49,960 forward, I feel like where Cole Comet was going this year in 1476 01:30:49,960 --> 01:30:54,040 like the one 40s, right right around there, like 12th, 12th 1477 01:30:54,040 --> 01:30:58,560 round or so, That is kind of the sweet spot to where you probably 1478 01:30:58,560 --> 01:31:01,760 don't feel quite as bad about taking tight ends because a miss 1479 01:31:01,760 --> 01:31:04,000 at that point in the draft doesn't hurt you so bad. 1480 01:31:04,520 --> 01:31:08,440 And then for me, I I think my biggest take away that I've got 1481 01:31:08,440 --> 01:31:14,000 going forward is the strategy that got really heavily touted 1482 01:31:14,000 --> 01:31:17,120 of, oh, just take three or four tight ends with all of your last 1483 01:31:17,120 --> 01:31:21,080 picks. And best of all isn't bad in the 1484 01:31:21,080 --> 01:31:24,080 sense that there were lots of undervalued tight ends going in 1485 01:31:24,080 --> 01:31:27,680 those last rounds. I don't think that is the best 1486 01:31:27,680 --> 01:31:31,320 strategy though to employ if you truly are taking them as your 1487 01:31:31,320 --> 01:31:35,760 last three or last four picks. Because what you're what you're 1488 01:31:35,760 --> 01:31:38,920 giving up there is you're giving up some of these dart throws 1489 01:31:38,920 --> 01:31:42,200 where yes this season they probably hit at a higher rate 1490 01:31:42,200 --> 01:31:45,440 than they typically will right. Where we get guys like Kyron 1491 01:31:45,440 --> 01:31:49,720 Williams and Puka and you know Jerome Ford with the injury and 1492 01:31:49,840 --> 01:31:54,200 you know Justice and Gus and all the you know Josh Reynolds like 1493 01:31:54,560 --> 01:31:57,880 Kendrick Bourne got a pour some out for Kendrick are you are you 1494 01:31:57,880 --> 01:32:03,040 saying that you do recommend the OR or you you you you don't you 1495 01:32:03,040 --> 01:32:09,560 don't advise against just Sami tight end rounds 15 through 18 I 1496 01:32:09,560 --> 01:32:14,200 what I'm saying is. Mixing in I like take your last 1497 01:32:14,200 --> 01:32:18,760 tight end in that spot, but I I personally think that if you're 1498 01:32:18,760 --> 01:32:21,720 a plugged in best ball drafter, you definitely have some dark 1499 01:32:21,720 --> 01:32:24,120 throw guys, right? You know, you know the guys that 1500 01:32:24,120 --> 01:32:27,120 you're interested in mixing in at the end of drafts and if 1501 01:32:27,120 --> 01:32:30,000 you're taking. Tight in, Tight in, Tight in For 1502 01:32:30,000 --> 01:32:33,040 your last three picks round 1616 through 18. 1503 01:32:33,400 --> 01:32:36,840 When are you taking your your true dart throw actually off the 1504 01:32:36,840 --> 01:32:39,200 board. Are you fading everyone in round 1505 01:32:39,200 --> 01:32:43,080 1415 to take your you know, oh, while Puka was going, you know 1506 01:32:43,080 --> 01:32:47,440 undrafted around 18, but I just faded everyone in round 15 took 1507 01:32:47,440 --> 01:32:49,080 Puka and then took all my tight ends. 1508 01:32:49,080 --> 01:32:53,440 What I think the correct way to play it is have your set of dart 1509 01:32:53,440 --> 01:32:55,520 throw guys that you want to mix in at the end. 1510 01:32:56,120 --> 01:32:59,440 Know how many of them you really want to have per team. 1511 01:32:59,480 --> 01:33:01,800 If you're really confident that you're you're strong with your 1512 01:33:01,800 --> 01:33:04,640 dart throws, maybe you are doing 2 per team and they're your 17th 1513 01:33:04,640 --> 01:33:07,320 and 18th round picks. Maybe you only got, you know, 1514 01:33:07,320 --> 01:33:10,920 risk tolerance for one. But I think using the late round 1515 01:33:10,920 --> 01:33:14,760 tight end as a risk tolerance slider is probably the proper 1516 01:33:14,760 --> 01:33:17,440 way to do it. And so you can mix a Colcomet in 1517 01:33:17,440 --> 01:33:21,800 there in the 12th or 13th round and say I got a better chance of 1518 01:33:21,800 --> 01:33:25,240 this guy having upside than a Hunter Henry, you know, like. 1519 01:33:25,840 --> 01:33:29,640 Cost adjusted Cole Comet versus Hunter Henry the correct place, 1520 01:33:30,160 --> 01:33:32,640 probably Hunter Henry in a vacuum when you're just looking 1521 01:33:32,640 --> 01:33:34,960 at the tight end position, but when you're looking at it 1522 01:33:34,960 --> 01:33:37,600 holistically from the point of your entire roster and what 1523 01:33:37,600 --> 01:33:40,560 you're giving up at other positions by only selecting 1524 01:33:40,560 --> 01:33:42,120 tight end in the last three rounds. 1525 01:33:42,520 --> 01:33:46,080 I do think that kind of thinking of the tight end in the last 1526 01:33:46,080 --> 01:33:50,400 rounds as your risk tolerance slider for taking a a swing and 1527 01:33:50,400 --> 01:33:54,280 a miss type dart throw player. Is is the way that I'm gonna do 1528 01:33:54,280 --> 01:33:56,000 it going forward? I I know that was a lot of 1529 01:33:56,000 --> 01:33:57,840 rambling. I hope I right that. 1530 01:33:57,840 --> 01:34:02,800 Well, yeah. My, my big thing is that the 1531 01:34:03,080 --> 01:34:08,200 the, the tight end, especially the tight ends that go rounds 15 1532 01:34:08,200 --> 01:34:13,400 through 18, they do tend to be sort of like lower upside 1533 01:34:13,400 --> 01:34:17,040 players as well. And what you'll get is one of 1534 01:34:17,040 --> 01:34:22,640 those guys will hit and they'll be a good pick, but you're 1535 01:34:22,720 --> 01:34:26,640 you're you're sort of looking. At the the and especially in 1536 01:34:26,640 --> 01:34:29,840 that range you're you're looking at players that aren't starting 1537 01:34:29,840 --> 01:34:33,160 to be starters and bad offenses or players that are like 1538 01:34:33,160 --> 01:34:39,280 probably backups and in in in in maybe slightly better offenses. 1539 01:34:41,600 --> 01:34:44,880 You know what I, I, I, I actually think we should move on 1540 01:34:44,880 --> 01:34:47,960 from this discussion. Maybe we're getting too far from 1541 01:34:47,960 --> 01:34:49,800 we're gonna get off in the weeds there. 1542 01:34:50,600 --> 01:34:55,880 Yeah. So yeah, we we we talked about 1543 01:34:55,880 --> 01:34:59,160 Cole Comet. Connor Connor Hayward. 1544 01:34:59,920 --> 01:35:01,840 I that's not a that's not a name. 1545 01:35:01,840 --> 01:35:05,920 I was expecting to see what is going on there. 1546 01:35:06,480 --> 01:35:08,320 So I believe that place for Pittsburgh? 1547 01:35:08,320 --> 01:35:09,720 Yeah, I was. Going to say take the manager 1548 01:35:09,760 --> 01:35:11,720 for that Friar Muth. Injury there. 1549 01:35:13,320 --> 01:35:15,680 Sorry, sorry. All the Darnell Washington 1550 01:35:15,880 --> 01:35:21,280 truthers but. 10.6 Expected points last week were prior to 1551 01:35:21,280 --> 01:35:28,080 that pretty low so he he is the starter in in Pittsburgh but not 1552 01:35:28,080 --> 01:35:31,760 a not a particularly valuable role and and and when it's not 1553 01:35:31,760 --> 01:35:36,680 for our mood it it it doesn't matter probably probably a 1554 01:35:38,160 --> 01:35:45,000 showdown consideration only really or or would you disagree. 1555 01:35:46,000 --> 01:35:46,960 No. Yeah, I'm not. 1556 01:35:46,960 --> 01:35:49,200 I did. See someone take Conor Hayward 1557 01:35:50,200 --> 01:35:53,000 in a dog bowl draft. And I was like, that's that was 1558 01:35:53,000 --> 01:35:54,640 a little off the board even for me. 1559 01:35:56,480 --> 01:35:58,840 But yeah not not a Click on Kicks. 1560 01:35:59,880 --> 01:36:05,240 Kyle Pitts right beside Jonnu Smith in in root Participation 1561 01:36:05,920 --> 01:36:08,080 that feels that that that's starting to feel pretty bad 1562 01:36:08,960 --> 01:36:11,720 where like some of the underlying metrics that we're 1563 01:36:11,720 --> 01:36:14,880 sort of happy with on Kyle Pitts and and and sort of pointed to 1564 01:36:14,880 --> 01:36:19,640 the breakout that if if they're getting if they're sliding back 1565 01:36:19,640 --> 01:36:24,720 a bit that that that's getting pretty alarming that that's like 1566 01:36:24,720 --> 01:36:28,200 OK not only you're scoring not not scoring points your 1567 01:36:28,200 --> 01:36:31,480 underlying stats are getting worse too yeah it's it's moving 1568 01:36:31,480 --> 01:36:34,920 in the other direction and. It's really, it doesn't make a 1569 01:36:34,920 --> 01:36:39,440 ton of sense to me, 'cause early the hypothesis was maybe Pitts 1570 01:36:39,440 --> 01:36:42,200 is still coming off the injury and he's not totally right. 1571 01:36:42,680 --> 01:36:45,880 But he was running more routes then when that was the theory. 1572 01:36:46,240 --> 01:36:49,640 And so I his route chair has gone down. 1573 01:36:49,920 --> 01:36:52,120 He's been the motive, essentially, yeah. 1574 01:36:52,120 --> 01:36:55,880 It feels tired to to. You know, do the shit on Arthur 1575 01:36:55,880 --> 01:37:01,400 Smith thing. But man, I I think that it's not 1576 01:37:01,400 --> 01:37:03,400 as hard. The game isn't quite as hard as 1577 01:37:03,400 --> 01:37:07,280 he thinks it is. He's like, I gotta get man if I 1578 01:37:07,280 --> 01:37:11,840 don't involve. Michael Pruitt or Van Jefferson, 1579 01:37:12,440 --> 01:37:14,760 teams are going to be able to predict what I can do. 1580 01:37:15,400 --> 01:37:19,160 To which I would say if you just run out shitty players all the 1581 01:37:19,160 --> 01:37:21,960 time, it doesn't matter if they know or don't know what you're 1582 01:37:21,960 --> 01:37:25,600 going to do, Your players can't make the requisite plays. 1583 01:37:25,600 --> 01:37:29,400 So, like, congratulations being unpredictably shitty? 1584 01:37:29,560 --> 01:37:34,040 I guess so. First four games of the year 1585 01:37:34,320 --> 01:37:38,320 called Pitts at an average route participation of 8089%. 1586 01:37:39,000 --> 01:37:44,840 Last four games 66%. So they've they've changed the 1587 01:37:44,840 --> 01:37:49,760 offense there. I I don't know if I I think you 1588 01:37:49,760 --> 01:37:52,360 you can feel pretty good a lot of people are there already. 1589 01:37:52,360 --> 01:37:56,040 I think you can feel pretty good about benching called pits and 1590 01:37:56,040 --> 01:38:01,160 and redraft stuff if you've got a a a real option there. 1591 01:38:01,160 --> 01:38:04,480 Maybe not if your if your options are are bad. 1592 01:38:05,000 --> 01:38:08,960 But if if if you've got, if you've got someone like Laporta 1593 01:38:08,960 --> 01:38:12,040 or even Cole Comet, you should be start. 1594 01:38:12,040 --> 01:38:15,080 You should probably be starting Cole Comet over Kyle Pitts, Kyle 1595 01:38:15,080 --> 01:38:18,280 Pitts or Logan Thomas. Oh my God. 1596 01:38:18,880 --> 01:38:23,120 And I think it's it's. Probably Logan Thomas. 1597 01:38:23,160 --> 01:38:27,160 Yeah it is if if if if healthy and and and he's you know he's 1598 01:38:27,160 --> 01:38:28,720 starting it's probably Logan Thomas. 1599 01:38:28,880 --> 01:38:30,480 Yeah. Which is just so gross. 1600 01:38:30,640 --> 01:38:32,240 It's just. Man, it's awful. 1601 01:38:33,040 --> 01:38:36,160 Yeah, I know. We we called he he's on the next 1602 01:38:36,160 --> 01:38:39,520 chart but we called what's his. I'm actually going to just move 1603 01:38:39,520 --> 01:38:42,200 us on to the next chart. We called Trey McBride. 1604 01:38:42,200 --> 01:38:45,640 I think you you you pointed him as a potential that top five 1605 01:38:45,920 --> 01:38:48,840 tight end rest of the year. He he's well on his way there 1606 01:38:48,840 --> 01:38:50,880 now. Trey. 1607 01:38:50,960 --> 01:38:53,120 Trey McBride's. Doing his best, Jake. 1608 01:38:53,120 --> 01:38:57,040 Ferguson impression You know, creeping his way onto the 1609 01:38:57,040 --> 01:38:59,080 starter chart. Obviously with this being the 1610 01:38:59,080 --> 01:39:02,720 rolling 4 weeks and Zach Ertz only recently being added to IR, 1611 01:39:03,640 --> 01:39:08,720 we're seeing Trey McBride's snaps not accurately reflecting 1612 01:39:08,720 --> 01:39:14,080 what what his real role is going forward here but 27% targets per 1613 01:39:14,080 --> 01:39:17,080 route run good A dot. I know some of it was garbage 1614 01:39:17,080 --> 01:39:18,000 time. It's been he's. 1615 01:39:18,360 --> 01:39:20,600 He's like king Garbage time. But guess what? 1616 01:39:20,600 --> 01:39:22,320 Garbage time points still count, baby. 1617 01:39:22,320 --> 01:39:26,200 So right. Yeah, it it it it, it. 1618 01:39:26,320 --> 01:39:28,040 It doesn't matter if that's where they get their points, 1619 01:39:28,040 --> 01:39:29,120 that's where they get their points. 1620 01:39:29,920 --> 01:39:34,440 And so another one that called. That Monkelmeyer now last week, 1621 01:39:34,480 --> 01:39:37,000 obviously the game last night was abysmal. 1622 01:39:37,280 --> 01:39:40,880 That like the Raiders just played awful overall. 1623 01:39:41,160 --> 01:39:47,200 But Michael Meyer, 79% Rd. share, so he's he like if that 1624 01:39:47,200 --> 01:39:49,840 continues he's a starter. He's the starting tight end. 1625 01:39:50,520 --> 01:39:54,080 We like Michael Meyer. So that that feels that feels 1626 01:39:54,080 --> 01:39:58,080 pretty strongly positive to me, even if the offense is bad. 1627 01:39:58,400 --> 01:40:01,160 I I would say for for all the positives. 1628 01:40:01,200 --> 01:40:04,120 Of his, his route share increasing. 1629 01:40:04,440 --> 01:40:07,120 I'm pulling up the Raiders schedule, I guess. 1630 01:40:07,200 --> 01:40:11,880 You know, Thankfully they they've got the Giants, Dolphins 1631 01:40:12,120 --> 01:40:15,280 and Vikings as three of their games that are coming up. 1632 01:40:15,640 --> 01:40:18,840 They get the Chiefs twice and they do have the Chargers. 1633 01:40:19,360 --> 01:40:22,240 So yeah, they've got they have four games where they're going 1634 01:40:22,240 --> 01:40:24,720 to go against pretty poor defenses. 1635 01:40:25,080 --> 01:40:28,360 They also get the Colts, so make that five really poor defenses 1636 01:40:28,360 --> 01:40:32,120 they'll get to play against. He's now a starting tight end. 1637 01:40:32,120 --> 01:40:34,760 When you were, you were. Getting him extremely cheap 1638 01:40:34,960 --> 01:40:38,560 people, we were dropping him. So you've either like got them 1639 01:40:38,560 --> 01:40:44,040 off waivers or you drafted them cheap Like I I I honestly think 1640 01:40:44,040 --> 01:40:46,120 when it's that cheap and you're talking about somebody becoming 1641 01:40:46,120 --> 01:40:51,120 a starter like the the match up it it becomes less important. 1642 01:40:51,560 --> 01:40:55,960 I don't I I think I don't know if I'd be drafted in in dog bowl 1643 01:40:56,640 --> 01:40:58,160 like you you're the sort of dog bowl. 1644 01:40:58,200 --> 01:40:59,600 I would not. I would not. 1645 01:40:59,600 --> 01:41:02,600 And it's for me. It's that the ceiling. 1646 01:41:02,840 --> 01:41:06,760 I 'cause I I need an undrafted tight end. 1647 01:41:07,600 --> 01:41:10,040 I almost feel like I need a little more. 1648 01:41:10,040 --> 01:41:13,080 I need them to separate or or not get gapped. 1649 01:41:13,120 --> 01:41:16,080 For them to be someone I'm really excited about in Dog Bowl 1650 01:41:16,520 --> 01:41:19,400 and for for Michael Meyer, I need, you know minimum a 1651 01:41:19,400 --> 01:41:23,240 touchdown and probably like 70 yards to to feel really good 1652 01:41:23,240 --> 01:41:27,000 about the play. And while the role looks right, 1653 01:41:27,080 --> 01:41:29,320 feels pretty possible. Yeah, yeah, for the role, you're 1654 01:41:29,320 --> 01:41:30,880 not wrong. I just. 1655 01:41:31,400 --> 01:41:34,160 I'm spooked. From what we saw from like, the 1656 01:41:34,160 --> 01:41:36,280 vibes are bad for the Raiders, man. 1657 01:41:36,280 --> 01:41:41,160 And and this might be the vibes, this might be overreacting like 1658 01:41:41,160 --> 01:41:43,600 I remember early in the year. People were like, what? 1659 01:41:43,720 --> 01:41:47,040 Idiots, Faded Devante Adams. 'Cause they're quarterback. 1660 01:41:47,120 --> 01:41:51,160 And now like the the same people are like, please trade Devante 1661 01:41:51,280 --> 01:41:53,440 Adams. Please trade Devante Adams. 1662 01:41:53,960 --> 01:41:57,560 Yeah, it's it's. But at the same time, I don't. 1663 01:41:57,560 --> 01:42:00,280 Want to overreact to like an island game either? 1664 01:42:01,080 --> 01:42:03,680 Where there, there have, there have been games where the 1665 01:42:03,680 --> 01:42:09,160 Raiders have been OK and I just maybe I'm I'm just scared that 1666 01:42:09,440 --> 01:42:12,600 I'm really scared that the train, like the train, might 1667 01:42:12,600 --> 01:42:15,200 just be a runaway train at this point. 1668 01:42:15,200 --> 01:42:17,520 And yeah, the horses have bolted, bolted the barn. 1669 01:42:17,920 --> 01:42:20,720 I don't. I don't know that they can get 1670 01:42:21,080 --> 01:42:24,240 like let's just say hypothetically the Raiders drop 1671 01:42:24,240 --> 01:42:27,440 a game to the Giants next week or they're they're on. 1672 01:42:27,600 --> 01:42:29,640 No, they're on auto buy. Raiders drop a game to the 1673 01:42:29,640 --> 01:42:33,880 Giants and then drop another game to the Raiders and then 1674 01:42:33,880 --> 01:42:37,680 they're heading in to Miami Follow followed by the Chiefs 1675 01:42:37,840 --> 01:42:39,680 and they get fucking butt whipped. 1676 01:42:40,200 --> 01:42:42,280 Devante Adams is just like sitting at home. 1677 01:42:42,480 --> 01:42:46,000 I'm just folded like, can't you man? 1678 01:42:46,080 --> 01:42:49,440 And I wasn't like full on team Faye. 1679 01:42:49,440 --> 01:42:52,080 Devante. I think I came like a little I'm 1680 01:42:52,080 --> 01:42:55,160 probably like field neutral on Devante, you know, right. 1681 01:42:56,240 --> 01:43:00,280 But I I wasn't fully bought into the oh, you know, the Raiders 1682 01:43:00,280 --> 01:43:02,560 are going to be so bad it's going to crush Devonta. 1683 01:43:02,560 --> 01:43:04,440 It's like, I don't know that it matters that much. 1684 01:43:05,000 --> 01:43:08,120 I'm like in my mind's eye. I'm seeing it pretty clear here 1685 01:43:08,120 --> 01:43:11,880 where after the Chiefs game when the Raiders lose in the first 1686 01:43:11,880 --> 01:43:15,920 ever 100 point loss where the Chiefs put up like 103 and the 1687 01:43:15,920 --> 01:43:18,880 Raiders like. Can't you just see this just 1688 01:43:18,880 --> 01:43:22,040 being an absolute all time meltdown type of team? 1689 01:43:22,040 --> 01:43:25,680 The vibes feel so bad that I think that's possible. 1690 01:43:26,840 --> 01:43:31,040 And and I I don't believe in McDaniels as as a as a coach. 1691 01:43:31,040 --> 01:43:34,240 Me neither. So I I I feel pretty. 1692 01:43:34,240 --> 01:43:37,000 Comfortable that or confident that he's a bad coach. 1693 01:43:38,000 --> 01:43:39,560 So. So for Michael Myers, they've 1694 01:43:39,720 --> 01:43:42,280 had good games to to turn into an actual. 1695 01:43:42,400 --> 01:43:45,160 Team to turn into. Something actionable for Michael 1696 01:43:45,160 --> 01:43:47,840 Myer if you're in a season long league where you got to choose 1697 01:43:47,840 --> 01:43:50,240 to start him? Is he someone where you think 1698 01:43:50,240 --> 01:43:54,760 it's safe to say you want to wait to play it until you see it 1699 01:43:54,760 --> 01:43:57,800 again? Yeah, yeah, like. 1700 01:43:59,080 --> 01:44:00,920 You need to be in a bad situation. 1701 01:44:00,920 --> 01:44:03,960 You need to be down bad to be starting Michael Myra tight 1702 01:44:03,960 --> 01:44:06,480 ends. He's a he's he's a better than a 1703 01:44:06,480 --> 01:44:09,120 desperation play. There's meat on the bone. 1704 01:44:09,800 --> 01:44:15,200 But you you you're feeling you're feeling pretty shaky 1705 01:44:15,200 --> 01:44:17,320 about starting him like you don't feel good about it. 1706 01:44:18,760 --> 01:44:23,360 Yeah. Any other backup tight ends we 1707 01:44:23,360 --> 01:44:26,200 need to spend time on here? No, I think. 1708 01:44:26,200 --> 01:44:28,880 I think we can move on. From the backup tight end. 1709 01:44:28,880 --> 01:44:32,200 Sharp. And so now you you you made us 1710 01:44:32,200 --> 01:44:37,080 put CD Lamb on the thumbnail. You're the he. 1711 01:44:37,080 --> 01:44:38,880 He has. He's risen from the dead. 1712 01:44:39,560 --> 01:44:41,560 Please, please tell us about CD Lamb. 1713 01:44:42,600 --> 01:44:46,160 This was what I thought was. I mean, I guess I'm a couple 1714 01:44:46,160 --> 01:44:50,320 weeks late, but I like, I, I called this out earlier in my 1715 01:44:50,320 --> 01:44:54,600 infamous mushing of the Cowboys week where I, you know, just 1716 01:44:54,600 --> 01:44:58,360 killed all Cowboys production and got them blown out by the 1717 01:44:58,360 --> 01:45:02,760 Cardinals. But I I I truly see this is 1718 01:45:02,760 --> 01:45:05,760 like, this is the hallmark of the Mike McCarthy offense. 1719 01:45:05,760 --> 01:45:08,280 I don't know how to do very much, but I do know to throw it 1720 01:45:08,280 --> 01:45:11,680 to the wide receiver one like a la Jordie Nelson, a la Devante 1721 01:45:11,680 --> 01:45:14,800 Adams. Like hey, does anyone else has 1722 01:45:14,800 --> 01:45:17,200 anyone tried this throw it to the good wide receiver thing 1723 01:45:17,200 --> 01:45:21,360 like and so coming off of a bye week perhaps doing a little self 1724 01:45:21,360 --> 01:45:25,240 scouting realizing like Oh yeah Michael Gallup and Brandon Cooks 1725 01:45:25,720 --> 01:45:30,400 suck like neither of these guys are doing anything for us and so 1726 01:45:30,400 --> 01:45:32,200 we just have to throw it to CD Lamb. 1727 01:45:32,880 --> 01:45:37,440 I I think that was that was what we were seeing here was the you 1728 01:45:37,440 --> 01:45:42,640 know, Michael barking. Just to to be in in in still in 1729 01:45:42,640 --> 01:45:47,200 actionable mode do you think CD Lamb going forward is he someone 1730 01:45:47,200 --> 01:45:52,560 where the the weekly floor is kind of low because he's 1731 01:45:52,560 --> 01:45:56,480 sporadically targeted or do you think this is a wake up call for 1732 01:45:56,480 --> 01:46:01,920 the Cowboys and you know he he he goes back to being like 1733 01:46:01,920 --> 01:46:04,000 heavily targeted and and he's like. 1734 01:46:04,800 --> 01:46:08,680 A a very strong fantasy producer every almost every game. 1735 01:46:08,680 --> 01:46:13,040 The rest of the way I would say the real and this is such a cop 1736 01:46:13,040 --> 01:46:15,480 out answer. I think the real truth lies 1737 01:46:15,480 --> 01:46:19,880 right in between those two where he might because of how poor the 1738 01:46:19,880 --> 01:46:23,120 offense has looked in a on certain occasions. 1739 01:46:23,400 --> 01:46:25,800 You've always got to keep that in the range for the Cowboys. 1740 01:46:25,800 --> 01:46:28,960 They they can come out and do Cowboys things and CD Lamb is 1741 01:46:28,960 --> 01:46:30,840 just going to hurt you that week. 1742 01:46:31,360 --> 01:46:34,600 But I also think that they are now aware there have been a 1743 01:46:34,600 --> 01:46:37,240 couple games now there have been two games where CD has just 1744 01:46:37,240 --> 01:46:39,280 gotten an absurd amount of targets. 1745 01:46:39,600 --> 01:46:42,000 We're we're, we're past the point of we like trying. 1746 01:46:42,320 --> 01:46:47,520 Trying to trying to tight ends as well, but you're a little bit 1747 01:46:47,520 --> 01:46:51,120 nervous about the offensive environment as a whole that like 1748 01:46:51,400 --> 01:46:54,120 maybe they have their stuck out weeks, yeah. 1749 01:46:54,120 --> 01:46:56,880 And they their schedule going forward is better than it has 1750 01:46:56,880 --> 01:47:01,360 been previously this season. So I'd say in general I'm, I'm 1751 01:47:01,360 --> 01:47:04,960 more bullish on CD going forward, but I don't want to you 1752 01:47:04,960 --> 01:47:08,200 know get get ahead of myself and get out over my skis. 1753 01:47:09,120 --> 01:47:11,640 OK, OK. So other things I. 1754 01:47:11,640 --> 01:47:16,320 Think we need to talk about is what are how are we playing this 1755 01:47:16,320 --> 01:47:20,000 sort of Viking situation now that now that Kirk Cousins is 1756 01:47:20,000 --> 01:47:25,680 out is like Justin Jefferson is he still? 1757 01:47:25,840 --> 01:47:31,040 Is he a trade candidate? Or is is is he a trade away and 1758 01:47:31,040 --> 01:47:35,960 do we still like Addison the the regarding Justin. 1759 01:47:36,280 --> 01:47:40,080 Yeah, regarding the Justin Jefferson trade away, for me 1760 01:47:40,240 --> 01:47:43,880 it's probably like the the way that I approach leagues where 1761 01:47:43,880 --> 01:47:47,480 you can trade is if you're if this is a thing where you care 1762 01:47:47,480 --> 01:47:49,520 about winning, if you care about winning in this league. 1763 01:47:49,960 --> 01:47:53,320 This is a market based game and the only way to truly know what 1764 01:47:53,320 --> 01:47:56,320 transactions you should be making is to know every price in 1765 01:47:56,320 --> 01:47:58,200 the market. And so the correct way to play 1766 01:47:58,200 --> 01:48:02,040 in a league where you can trade is you need to be talking to all 1767 01:48:02,040 --> 01:48:06,080 eleven other managers every single day testing the market on 1768 01:48:06,120 --> 01:48:08,600 every single player on your roster that you'd be willing to 1769 01:48:08,600 --> 01:48:11,360 move and every single player on their roster that they might be 1770 01:48:11,360 --> 01:48:14,440 willing to move. And that's like so crazy. 1771 01:48:15,120 --> 01:48:18,440 Yeah, so crazy over the top. But like if you want to win, 1772 01:48:18,840 --> 01:48:21,640 that is the correct way to play a market based game. 1773 01:48:21,640 --> 01:48:22,680 You need to know the market, right? 1774 01:48:22,680 --> 01:48:26,920 If it was $1,000,000 week. That would be like like or even 1775 01:48:26,920 --> 01:48:31,560 like $10,000 week. Yeah, if it's a if it's a thing 1776 01:48:31,560 --> 01:48:34,040 where the pride matters substantially to you or the 1777 01:48:34,040 --> 01:48:37,880 money matters substantially to you, you need to be grinding to 1778 01:48:37,880 --> 01:48:39,960 the fucking nub in the trade streets. 1779 01:48:39,960 --> 01:48:43,160 Because to to make this about Justin Jefferson. 1780 01:48:43,640 --> 01:48:45,960 I don't know if it's a good trade or not because it really 1781 01:48:45,960 --> 01:48:48,160 depends on how your league mates perceive him. 1782 01:48:48,160 --> 01:48:52,200 If they're willing to pay old Justin Jefferson prices and you 1783 01:48:52,200 --> 01:48:56,520 can get a true haul for him then yeah I love offloading the 1784 01:48:56,520 --> 01:48:59,600 uncertainty in that risk and and just you know in a straight 1785 01:48:59,600 --> 01:49:04,080 redraft no keeper league saying hey whatever this volatility is 1786 01:49:04,080 --> 01:49:06,960 for someone else to embrace. I'm going to take more known 1787 01:49:06,960 --> 01:49:11,080 commodities here and and try and take this value and convert it 1788 01:49:11,080 --> 01:49:15,640 into something that has a little less risk on it and then so just 1789 01:49:15,640 --> 01:49:20,000 to just to hone in like. And really and maybe drill in on 1790 01:49:20,000 --> 01:49:23,240 on the usability too. So obviously it's we're price 1791 01:49:23,240 --> 01:49:25,080 sensitive on Joseph and Jefferson. 1792 01:49:25,120 --> 01:49:31,920 I I I I think I think that makes sense, but then the I guess more 1793 01:49:31,920 --> 01:49:35,280 directly. How much are we docking the 1794 01:49:35,280 --> 01:49:43,200 Vikings pass catchers for this move from Kirk Cousins great 1795 01:49:43,200 --> 01:49:49,280 fantasy friendly quarterback, to to Dobbs, Which it's it's a hard 1796 01:49:49,280 --> 01:49:52,400 question. So what I would say is, let's, 1797 01:49:52,520 --> 01:49:55,800 and this is not a apples to apples thing at all, but let's 1798 01:49:55,880 --> 01:49:59,160 think about what the Cardinals looked like with Dobbs, right? 1799 01:49:59,160 --> 01:50:02,600 Like were they able to have usable weeks from guys? 1800 01:50:02,600 --> 01:50:06,160 Absolutely. The consistency was something 1801 01:50:06,160 --> 01:50:09,520 where it was you're a little less able to rely on it. 1802 01:50:09,760 --> 01:50:13,680 And So what I would say is, you know Jefferson's ceiling 1803 01:50:14,000 --> 01:50:17,120 certainly takes a hit because I I just don't think that, you 1804 01:50:17,120 --> 01:50:20,000 know, look at like Marquis Brown, this great, great wide 1805 01:50:20,000 --> 01:50:24,400 receiver, good NFL player. But just in that offense it it 1806 01:50:24,400 --> 01:50:28,760 was really hard for him to put up elite numbers and and 1807 01:50:28,760 --> 01:50:31,760 obviously Justin Jefferson is a better player than, than Marquis 1808 01:50:31,760 --> 01:50:34,320 Brown. But I I think that we'll see 1809 01:50:34,320 --> 01:50:40,000 Jefferson come down. I mean, maybe more in the, Gosh, 1810 01:50:40,000 --> 01:50:43,640 it feels really gross to to like, 'cause I I feel like I'm 1811 01:50:43,640 --> 01:50:46,800 picking an arbitrary point, a watermark of where he'll fall 1812 01:50:46,800 --> 01:50:51,680 to, but maybe more in line with like Aman, RA or Keenan going 1813 01:50:51,680 --> 01:50:53,040 forward. And it's just like the 1814 01:50:53,040 --> 01:50:56,680 combination of QB talent and wide receiver talent where those 1815 01:50:56,680 --> 01:50:59,440 wide receivers have better quarterbacks and and Justin 1816 01:50:59,440 --> 01:51:00,960 Jefferson's a better receiver talent. 1817 01:51:00,960 --> 01:51:03,640 It kind of they meet in the middle around there. 1818 01:51:03,640 --> 01:51:08,000 I I don't know I it's yeah that makes sense and so. 1819 01:51:08,440 --> 01:51:12,680 When when Kirk Cousins was initially injured, I, I, I sort 1820 01:51:12,680 --> 01:51:17,840 of remembered back to the last time he didn't play and the the 1821 01:51:17,840 --> 01:51:20,720 offense was awful. It was just God awful. 1822 01:51:21,000 --> 01:51:23,400 And I was like, oh, is that where we're going to see again? 1823 01:51:23,760 --> 01:51:26,760 And so I think. Dobbs is is a competent 1824 01:51:26,760 --> 01:51:28,960 quarterback. One thing that sort of like 1825 01:51:28,960 --> 01:51:33,880 makes me feel a little bit better about Dobbs is that he 1826 01:51:33,880 --> 01:51:39,600 did he he did sort of like I think for the expectations that 1827 01:51:39,640 --> 01:51:42,160 were fair for that offense going in. 1828 01:51:42,560 --> 01:51:47,080 He did help them exceed, he did help the offense play better. 1829 01:51:47,600 --> 01:51:52,280 Whereas, like I I feel like an an offense where the main 1830 01:51:52,280 --> 01:51:55,720 receiver is Hollywood Brown. And they're having to treat him 1831 01:51:55,720 --> 01:52:00,120 like an alpha and he's getting 25% target share and he's 1832 01:52:00,120 --> 01:52:03,200 getting like the alpha sort of targets where it's not sort of 1833 01:52:03,200 --> 01:52:06,160 deep shot stuff. And then you're talking about 1834 01:52:06,160 --> 01:52:09,320 Zach Eritz, you're talking about Michael Wilson and like, oh, 1835 01:52:09,320 --> 01:52:15,200 what about Ron Delmar? I I I feel like he is. 1836 01:52:15,200 --> 01:52:17,600 Sort of like a net out of the. Quarterback. 1837 01:52:17,960 --> 01:52:21,400 Or at least that. That's what my sense is based on 1838 01:52:21,400 --> 01:52:24,080 his play so far. And. 1839 01:52:26,360 --> 01:52:28,680 I think. You you have to consider it a a. 1840 01:52:29,000 --> 01:52:32,600 Clear downgrade just because Kirk Cousins is so helpful for 1841 01:52:32,600 --> 01:52:37,560 fantasy. But I, I and, and maybe this is, 1842 01:52:37,560 --> 01:52:40,920 this is me going on on a limb and and admittedly tough 1843 01:52:40,920 --> 01:52:45,720 question and I don't have all the answers but I do wonder if 1844 01:52:45,800 --> 01:52:51,360 things, if things for that offence are maybe not not as bad 1845 01:52:51,840 --> 01:52:55,680 as as they could have been. When Kurkosans went down. 1846 01:52:58,440 --> 01:53:04,240 Yeah, and like, maybe. Maybe he's like maybe Jefferson 1847 01:53:04,240 --> 01:53:07,040 is still in the Stefan Diggs range. 1848 01:53:08,480 --> 01:53:11,720 I think that's like you. That's like an optimistic 1849 01:53:11,840 --> 01:53:14,160 outlook, right? Because yeah, it is. 1850 01:53:14,440 --> 01:53:15,840 It is, you know, couldn't. Couldn't he? 1851 01:53:15,840 --> 01:53:18,680 Also be in the Devante Adams range. 1852 01:53:18,720 --> 01:53:22,520 You know where all of a sudden the offense goes from functional 1853 01:53:22,520 --> 01:53:25,680 to non The the offense wasn't good outside of the passing game 1854 01:53:25,680 --> 01:53:27,200 right. Like the run game wasn't very 1855 01:53:27,200 --> 01:53:32,560 good and and so I I don't know I'm. 1856 01:53:33,760 --> 01:53:37,760 But with with how uncertain both of us are, I think to take it 1857 01:53:37,760 --> 01:53:40,400 back to the are you trading Justin Jefferson thing? 1858 01:53:41,240 --> 01:53:44,960 It yeah, it it just really highlights to me where if you 1859 01:53:44,960 --> 01:53:49,560 can get anything close to what Justin Jefferson was worth, you 1860 01:53:49,560 --> 01:53:52,240 just do it because of the uncertain because like the 1861 01:53:52,280 --> 01:53:56,880 outcome the bad outcomes are so they're like you're now dead and 1862 01:53:56,880 --> 01:53:59,800 you know your league is you're it's all over for you. 1863 01:54:01,120 --> 01:54:04,000 And so it's just like let's try and offload some of that risk. 1864 01:54:04,520 --> 01:54:09,400 Because I I think one thing that we can say with relative 1865 01:54:09,400 --> 01:54:13,400 confidence is that it's not Justin Jefferson's not going to 1866 01:54:13,400 --> 01:54:17,440 come back from IR and just keep doing Justin Jefferson things 1867 01:54:17,560 --> 01:54:20,480 without Kirk Cousins right. Like, he'll still be good, but 1868 01:54:20,480 --> 01:54:25,360 it's not going to be the He's a lock for 1:50 every week, right? 1869 01:54:25,360 --> 01:54:26,360 Right. Yeah. 1870 01:54:26,360 --> 01:54:31,040 No way. Yeah. 1871 01:54:31,040 --> 01:54:32,680 Feel feel yucky talking about it. 1872 01:54:33,560 --> 01:54:35,080 Yeah, it's. It's. 1873 01:54:35,400 --> 01:54:41,440 Tough for sure and I I I accept that I'm still I I'm probably 1874 01:54:41,440 --> 01:54:47,480 more on on the optimistic side where like I I think maybe. 1875 01:54:47,480 --> 01:54:48,760 Dobbs is, is. Is. 1876 01:54:49,440 --> 01:54:55,320 A little bit better than maybe. There's a There's a chances. 1877 01:54:55,320 --> 01:55:00,640 League average but I accept that like given given sort of like 1878 01:55:00,640 --> 01:55:05,440 long term tinking and and he's a he's a long term journeyman that 1879 01:55:05,440 --> 01:55:08,040 that probably is a little bit optimistic based on a couple of 1880 01:55:08,040 --> 01:55:14,120 games for the for the Cardinals and in terms of how do you play 1881 01:55:14,120 --> 01:55:17,880 him in DFS, how do you play Jordan Addison in in DFS. 1882 01:55:19,160 --> 01:55:23,000 Yeah I it it, it probably is I guess situation where if 1883 01:55:23,000 --> 01:55:26,200 someone's like Oh no, I can't I can't play Jordan Addison and 1884 01:55:26,200 --> 01:55:29,520 Jordan Addison just falls all the way down and and he's among 1885 01:55:29,520 --> 01:55:33,800 the last drafted peak players like you're probably very 1886 01:55:33,800 --> 01:55:38,560 interested in Addison then but you you you do need a discount 1887 01:55:38,560 --> 01:55:40,960 from where he was going before. Yeah. 1888 01:55:40,960 --> 01:55:47,560 And in games like DFS or Battle Royale or Dog Bowl where there's 1889 01:55:47,760 --> 01:55:50,040 you know, the prizes are very top heavy and you're very 1890 01:55:50,040 --> 01:55:53,040 incentivized to take on risk and be contrarian against the 1891 01:55:53,040 --> 01:55:56,200 market. I I'm definitely the kind of guy 1892 01:55:56,200 --> 01:56:00,360 that likes to play things before I see them in those types of 1893 01:56:00,760 --> 01:56:07,080 contests. Oh man, I it would feel so hard 1894 01:56:07,080 --> 01:56:10,200 to click Jordan Addison. You know before, before you've 1895 01:56:10,200 --> 01:56:13,200 seen that it's gonna be OK for Jordan Addison. 1896 01:56:13,840 --> 01:56:18,520 You know with without Kirk Cousins, even in like let's say 1897 01:56:18,640 --> 01:56:19,520 the. Dog bowl where? 1898 01:56:19,520 --> 01:56:22,280 Where do you Do you think he should be undrafted or what 1899 01:56:22,280 --> 01:56:23,520 round do you think he should be in? 1900 01:56:24,000 --> 01:56:28,120 Let's see Are the are the Vikings let's let's pull this 1901 01:56:28,120 --> 01:56:30,080 are they on on the Yeah good question. 1902 01:56:30,520 --> 01:56:34,120 Hey, on the main slate we got Vikings, Falcons, Yeah, on the 1903 01:56:34,120 --> 01:56:37,960 main slate, Oh my goodness. Yeah, this is, I mean, like 1904 01:56:37,960 --> 01:56:42,520 potential slow pace game with it's 'cause I don't think Dobbs 1905 01:56:42,520 --> 01:56:44,240 is starting. Right, Dobbs isn't starting. 1906 01:56:44,240 --> 01:56:46,880 No, no, he's not the the the rookie, unknown rookie. 1907 01:56:46,880 --> 01:56:53,920 Is is there starting this week. So God, so look like yes, the if 1908 01:56:53,920 --> 01:56:58,040 Addison's going in now for me, I need him going undrafted. 1909 01:56:58,400 --> 01:57:01,840 Feel like he can't be going last round and owned in in 100% of 1910 01:57:01,840 --> 01:57:04,240 drafts. That takes a lot of the mustard 1911 01:57:04,240 --> 01:57:07,920 off the fastball, so to speak. I need him undrafted so I'm 1912 01:57:07,920 --> 01:57:11,080 getting him that you know, the field gets all, all the players 1913 01:57:11,080 --> 01:57:15,720 at 8 1/3% in the dog bowl. I need Jordan Addison to be 2% 1914 01:57:15,960 --> 01:57:19,760 you know 3% so that when I get a Jordan Addison hit. 1915 01:57:20,640 --> 01:57:23,480 You know instead of playing against 400 teams I'm playing 1916 01:57:23,480 --> 01:57:27,640 against 200 or even 100 teams. You know if I get a sub 1% 1917 01:57:27,640 --> 01:57:31,360 Jordan Addison and I'm playing against fifty teams I'm. 1918 01:57:31,400 --> 01:57:34,400 I'm cooking with some serious gas when he hits right. 1919 01:57:34,400 --> 01:57:38,560 Like you get a you get a Jordan Addison 2 touchdown game and 1920 01:57:38,560 --> 01:57:41,120 he's you know you got 50 Jordan Addison teams you're playing 1921 01:57:41,120 --> 01:57:43,840 against. That's the kind of spot that I'm 1922 01:57:43,840 --> 01:57:48,080 looking for and thank you you you you gave me enough courage 1923 01:57:48,080 --> 01:57:50,520 now to be willing to click him if he goes undrafted. 1924 01:57:50,760 --> 01:57:55,200 But I but just the how much it took me to get there and how 1925 01:57:55,200 --> 01:57:59,200 gross that felt I think is indicative of why the play 1926 01:57:59,200 --> 01:58:03,880 becomes good, right. It has to be just that gross and 1927 01:58:03,880 --> 01:58:06,840 bad feeling for it to become a good play and get to that. 1928 01:58:07,040 --> 01:58:08,680 Yeah. Especially especially with the 1929 01:58:08,720 --> 01:58:10,920 with the unknown. Rookie 'cause that it could, 1930 01:58:11,280 --> 01:58:14,360 especially this week. It could be awful, yeah, but. 1931 01:58:14,440 --> 01:58:20,200 But you can get and and this was why I I played a little bit of 1932 01:58:20,200 --> 01:58:23,920 Hopkins last week unfortunately didn't get enough of him. 1933 01:58:23,920 --> 01:58:27,920 I I told you this in our our group chat I mentioned for a lot 1934 01:58:27,920 --> 01:58:30,880 of my dart throws in the dog bowl that go undrafted, I put 1935 01:58:30,880 --> 01:58:33,400 them in a list. I throw them all in my queue. 1936 01:58:33,400 --> 01:58:36,560 I go to random.org and I randomize for. 1937 01:58:36,560 --> 01:58:39,720 However if I got three in there I randomized one to three and 1938 01:58:39,720 --> 01:58:41,760 whatever order they're in I take the number right. 1939 01:58:42,280 --> 01:58:45,200 And so I kept having Hopkins in there is Hopkins Kendrick, 1940 01:58:45,200 --> 01:58:48,120 Bourne couple other guys that I really liked that went undrafted 1941 01:58:48,760 --> 01:58:52,360 and every time random.org would select someone other than 1942 01:58:52,360 --> 01:58:56,040 Hopkins I was like dodged another Hopkins share. 1943 01:58:56,480 --> 01:59:00,440 I I was the my good fortune was smiling upon me there. 1944 01:59:00,440 --> 01:59:03,600 I didn't have to click the Andre Hopkins and so I only got I got 1945 01:59:03,600 --> 01:59:07,320 him on two teams with how the randomness gods let it shake out 1946 01:59:07,920 --> 01:59:12,920 and I was so sad thinking back to all those teams that just if 1947 01:59:12,920 --> 01:59:16,360 it had broke in another way so so this is to say that it can go 1948 01:59:16,360 --> 01:59:19,280 that way you know those rookie quarterbacks where it's entirely 1949 01:59:19,280 --> 01:59:23,320 unknown a lot of input volatility those are spots that 1950 01:59:23,480 --> 01:59:27,760 can be worth attacking provided that it sets up right and and 1951 01:59:27,760 --> 01:59:29,800 you're in those top heavy type of contests. 1952 01:59:31,040 --> 01:59:34,320 We we did spend a lot of time on just a couple receivers, but it 1953 01:59:34,320 --> 01:59:38,240 was a situation that I think was really important to parse the 1954 01:59:38,240 --> 01:59:43,240 other I've got two guys with three more guys total. 1955 01:59:43,240 --> 01:59:47,760 One is a team situation level thing and the other is elite, 1956 01:59:47,760 --> 01:59:51,560 elite regression candidate. I'm going to just blurb the 1957 01:59:51,560 --> 01:59:54,400 regression guy really quick because we've talked about him 1958 01:59:54,400 --> 01:59:59,360 before, but it's Chris Olave. I'm So what I was doing to start 1959 01:59:59,360 --> 02:00:02,880 this season with DFS was I will play Bruce Hall every week. 1960 02:00:03,080 --> 02:00:04,680 I don't care. I'm going to play him every week 1961 02:00:04,680 --> 02:00:06,840 because I know that eventually he's going to get there and I'm 1962 02:00:06,840 --> 02:00:08,600 just trying to be a week early, right? 1963 02:00:08,600 --> 02:00:12,320 I'm playing it before I see it. I'm at that point now with Chris 1964 02:00:12,320 --> 02:00:15,920 Olave for the rest of the season for DFS because I feel like he's 1965 02:00:15,920 --> 02:00:19,960 burned people enough and he's still getting crazy air yards 1966 02:00:19,960 --> 02:00:23,400 and the schedule is good. I'm I will play Chris Olave 1967 02:00:23,440 --> 02:00:26,920 every week until he makes me money for the rest of the 1968 02:00:26,920 --> 02:00:29,400 season. So that's my quick blurb there 1969 02:00:30,200 --> 02:00:36,240 for the team level thing. Very very, very concerned about 1970 02:00:36,360 --> 02:00:42,040 fantasy usefulness for Seahawks passing game because Jake Bobo 1971 02:00:42,040 --> 02:00:46,880 is the bane of your existence as a Seahawks you know, passing 1972 02:00:46,880 --> 02:00:50,640 game investor, If you have Tyler Lockett, you have DK Metcalf, 1973 02:00:50,640 --> 02:00:54,080 you have JSN. The bad news is that Jake Bobo 1974 02:00:54,080 --> 02:00:58,840 turned it into a four man party and I'm really concerned that 1975 02:00:58,920 --> 02:01:02,880 just for all of these guys they're you're just going to be 1976 02:01:02,880 --> 02:01:08,120 stuck in the spot where all four of them have their usefulness 1977 02:01:08,120 --> 02:01:10,680 reduced. So I'm a little scared there. 1978 02:01:10,800 --> 02:01:16,760 Am I overreacting to Jake Bobo? So are we overreacting to? 1979 02:01:17,160 --> 02:01:23,600 Bobo I guess the the big thing that it comes down to is, is 1980 02:01:23,600 --> 02:01:29,480 there enough? Because obviously he is a He's 1981 02:01:29,480 --> 02:01:31,560 sort of like a a. Part time. 1982 02:01:31,560 --> 02:01:34,200 Starter let's let's so I have to I. 1983 02:01:35,120 --> 02:01:39,480 I have to see what what actually his his root chair is. 1984 02:01:43,360 --> 02:01:45,440 And so we're. So, Jake? 1985 02:01:45,440 --> 02:01:55,800 Bobo Week 8. I'm sorry, you're fine. 1986 02:01:55,800 --> 02:01:58,280 I'll I'll vamp while you find the Jake Bobo stats. 1987 02:01:58,280 --> 02:02:01,600 Because for me, just from watching the games, what Jake 1988 02:02:01,600 --> 02:02:07,080 Bobo feels like to me is it reminds me of how that gross 1989 02:02:07,080 --> 02:02:11,080 tight end rotation happens in Seattle where it's like man, 1990 02:02:11,160 --> 02:02:14,240 there's points that happen to this tight end position. 1991 02:02:14,280 --> 02:02:16,880 But I just can't can't pin down who it is. 1992 02:02:16,880 --> 02:02:20,160 And Jake Bobo feels like an extension of that into the All 1993 02:02:20,160 --> 02:02:22,280 right I'm going. I'm going to read out the. 1994 02:02:22,760 --> 02:02:27,200 The Jake Bobo stats such such as they. 1995 02:02:27,200 --> 02:02:31,320 Are. So week week 6, his ride share 1996 02:02:31,360 --> 02:02:36,640 is 31%. Week 7 with BK maccuff it's 86%. 1997 02:02:37,280 --> 02:02:42,160 Week 8 BK maccuff back. It's 26% so. 1998 02:02:44,480 --> 02:02:45,640 I I think. I don't. 1999 02:02:45,640 --> 02:02:49,520 I don't think I I think. He's he's definitely much more 2000 02:02:49,520 --> 02:02:54,120 of a part time player now. Target Brett, run he, he he can 2001 02:02:54,120 --> 02:02:59,120 definitely get targets. It's like for example, actually 2002 02:02:59,120 --> 02:03:01,160 you know what he's getting. Like I I think. 2003 02:03:01,160 --> 02:03:04,880 It's a little bit overblown. Like ordered on week seven, 2004 02:03:05,280 --> 02:03:07,560 you're talking like 2 targets, 2 targets. 2005 02:03:08,080 --> 02:03:12,000 And he's also having games where he's not targeted at all. 2006 02:03:12,400 --> 02:03:14,280 So he wasn't targeted in week four. 2007 02:03:14,280 --> 02:03:19,600 Week 5 S the Jake Bobo touchdown vividness that I am, I'm falling 2008 02:03:19,600 --> 02:03:22,320 victim to this last week. You're saying don't worry about 2009 02:03:22,320 --> 02:03:25,600 it. The the Seahawks passing game 2010 02:03:25,600 --> 02:03:28,320 options are going to be fine. Jake Bobo is not going to come 2011 02:03:28,320 --> 02:03:30,160 steal your candy. Yeah, I I don't. 2012 02:03:30,240 --> 02:03:32,160 I don't think he's the boat the. Bogeyman. 2013 02:03:34,400 --> 02:03:36,120 Very good. All right. 2014 02:03:36,120 --> 02:03:40,080 He's the Halloween team. Let's hit the next wide receiver 2015 02:03:40,080 --> 02:03:42,400 chart here. We we one one thing. 2016 02:03:42,400 --> 02:03:44,440 Actually, I, I before we move on. 2017 02:03:46,080 --> 02:03:51,000 Pickens with Deontay back, it looks like, very much back to 2018 02:03:51,000 --> 02:03:57,040 his old role. His his targets per out run way 2019 02:03:57,040 --> 02:04:00,160 down. He did get the touchdown but 2020 02:04:00,400 --> 02:04:03,760 very little by the way yardage very little by the way of 2021 02:04:03,760 --> 02:04:07,840 targets and the anti Johnson just a volume machine once 2022 02:04:07,840 --> 02:04:10,400 again. So really disappointing there 2023 02:04:10,400 --> 02:04:16,480 for how good he looked with the the Deontay out but I do and 2024 02:04:17,840 --> 02:04:20,920 maybe it's still something to monitor going forward but. 2025 02:04:21,280 --> 02:04:26,680 I I I am pretty concerned with the collapse there after Deontay 2026 02:04:26,680 --> 02:04:29,480 coming back like sort of fully healthy that's that's a good 2027 02:04:29,480 --> 02:04:34,000 call I would for me it's more monitor put a pin in it and and 2028 02:04:34,000 --> 02:04:38,400 see but yeah right it's. One game. 2029 02:04:38,400 --> 02:04:39,440 Don't. Overreact. 2030 02:04:39,560 --> 02:04:42,440 Yeah, but pretty, pretty upsetting to see. 2031 02:04:42,840 --> 02:04:47,360 Yeah, OK. So we're moving on. 2032 02:04:47,920 --> 02:04:51,440 To the Tyreek Hill chart. And look at that. 2033 02:04:51,440 --> 02:04:56,520 DeAndre Hopkins, with just one game, has moved out of his, you 2034 02:04:56,520 --> 02:05:00,760 know, candidate for positive regression into guy who has just 2035 02:05:00,760 --> 02:05:02,960 had positive regression affect him, right? 2036 02:05:04,120 --> 02:05:06,680 And you know what's funny? I I think Gretch might have 2037 02:05:06,680 --> 02:05:07,560 pointed. Or was it? 2038 02:05:07,960 --> 02:05:10,160 I believe it was. Pat actually pointed this out 2039 02:05:10,440 --> 02:05:14,120 with respect to Lamar Jackson. Where these guys that are 2040 02:05:14,120 --> 02:05:16,640 candidates for positive regression, it's it doesn't 2041 02:05:16,640 --> 02:05:19,840 necessarily have to happen. Like slow and steady, like, oh, 2042 02:05:19,840 --> 02:05:23,000 and all of a sudden Lamar just, you know, chips it away. 2043 02:05:23,280 --> 02:05:26,280 He had six good games in a row and now he's back to where he 2044 02:05:26,280 --> 02:05:28,160 should be. It can happen in these big 2045 02:05:28,160 --> 02:05:32,320 explosive efficiency type games like we saw for Hopkins and we 2046 02:05:32,320 --> 02:05:36,560 saw for Lamar two weeks ago. And so that's why successfully 2047 02:05:36,560 --> 02:05:40,200 identifying these positive regression candidates can be so 2048 02:05:40,200 --> 02:05:44,320 helpful, because you know when it hits it, it can hit in such a 2049 02:05:45,200 --> 02:05:51,160 outsized way. And so can I bring to you two 2050 02:05:51,160 --> 02:05:55,880 very gross regression candidates here and you tell me which one 2051 02:05:55,880 --> 02:06:02,160 you prefer going forward? Christian Watson and T Higgins, 2052 02:06:02,160 --> 02:06:06,480 who both are right about 60% weighted targets per route run. 2053 02:06:07,080 --> 02:06:10,600 Higgins getting a few more, a little bit higher route share 2054 02:06:10,600 --> 02:06:14,840 than Christian Watson, Which do you prefer going forward? 2055 02:06:15,720 --> 02:06:21,120 I mean easily, easily. T Higgins because I think you 2056 02:06:21,200 --> 02:06:26,160 you did have concerns with Joe Burrow and the injury looks like 2057 02:06:26,240 --> 02:06:29,400 he he's fully healthy now and and and we've seen we've seen 2058 02:06:29,400 --> 02:06:33,400 the big T Higgins games where Jamar Chase is clearly the 2059 02:06:33,400 --> 02:06:36,360 preferred like he's the he is the first receiving option. 2060 02:06:36,920 --> 02:06:41,440 But you still get those big T Higgins explosion games, I 2061 02:06:41,440 --> 02:06:44,520 guess. On the other hand, Watson is a 2062 02:06:44,520 --> 02:06:48,960 speed demon and he's definitely had those games where he he's 2063 02:06:48,960 --> 02:06:52,240 just off to the races. But we were talking about 2064 02:06:52,240 --> 02:06:58,640 earlier where Packers not a not an attractive offense and the 2065 02:06:58,640 --> 02:07:00,880 long term data on Watson's not great. 2066 02:07:01,840 --> 02:07:03,600 He was not. He was. 2067 02:07:04,720 --> 02:07:06,680 Pretty mediocre college player, to be honest. 2068 02:07:06,680 --> 02:07:13,360 It took him to like his fifth year to really smash and yeah, 2069 02:07:13,800 --> 02:07:15,440 and. Situations like that. 2070 02:07:16,080 --> 02:07:19,360 The the good rookie year in in limited sample size. 2071 02:07:19,880 --> 02:07:24,040 The the the fact that not a good college player is really 2072 02:07:24,040 --> 02:07:28,040 important context. So talent better T Higgins. 2073 02:07:28,040 --> 02:07:30,440 Team better T Higgins. Quarterback better T Higgins. 2074 02:07:31,160 --> 02:07:36,080 Yep, that that makes sense to me, for the just to take one 2075 02:07:36,080 --> 02:07:39,840 quick detour on the Christian Watson thing for guys like that 2076 02:07:39,840 --> 02:07:42,600 where they didn't produce in college, but they're they're 2077 02:07:42,600 --> 02:07:46,440 these freak athletes. I think you can almost chalk 2078 02:07:46,440 --> 02:07:49,920 that up as more of a negative than a positive because it's 2079 02:07:50,200 --> 02:07:54,280 this guy had all of the physical gifts and he still couldn't beat 2080 02:07:54,400 --> 02:07:56,760 guys who you know eventually are going. 2081 02:07:56,760 --> 02:07:59,240 You're nagging Safeway groceries, right? 2082 02:07:59,640 --> 02:08:04,680 So just something to to look out for when you get prospects like 2083 02:08:04,680 --> 02:08:06,840 that. He he's certainly looking closer 2084 02:08:06,840 --> 02:08:12,680 to the Martavis Bryant career arc than or the Chase Claypool 2085 02:08:12,680 --> 02:08:16,840 career arc, right? JSN finally made it up to this 2086 02:08:16,840 --> 02:08:19,960 chart, getting getting a higher route share. 2087 02:08:21,480 --> 02:08:25,000 Still, he's still down in the The Milk Carton corner, but he's 2088 02:08:25,000 --> 02:08:30,840 trending in the right direction, so will be interesting to see if 2089 02:08:30,840 --> 02:08:34,360 he can fight off the Boba Monster and earn more 2090 02:08:34,360 --> 02:08:37,240 opportunity in the face of Locket and Metcalf. 2091 02:08:39,840 --> 02:08:42,120 Yeah, really not. Not a great game for him. 2092 02:08:42,120 --> 02:08:45,880 Last week, just four targets. He did get the touchdown, but 2093 02:08:46,880 --> 02:08:48,680 outside of the touchdown though, didn't. 2094 02:08:49,400 --> 02:08:50,600 Yeah, nothing. Nothing there. 2095 02:08:50,600 --> 02:08:54,240 His His route share was back. Down to 64%, not heavily 2096 02:08:54,280 --> 02:08:56,880 targeted, literally just a touchdown. 2097 02:08:57,000 --> 02:09:02,080 So yeah, that that that's a bit concerning and we'll be keeping 2098 02:09:02,080 --> 02:09:06,520 an eye on it next week for sure. Kendrick Bourne. 2099 02:09:06,520 --> 02:09:11,200 Viking funeral torn ACL Really sad. 2100 02:09:11,200 --> 02:09:16,120 He was. He was the only serviceable 2101 02:09:16,120 --> 02:09:19,480 receiver in that offense. So now you've got Pop Douglas or 2102 02:09:19,480 --> 02:09:27,400 Demario Douglas and and. I mean like if there was any way 2103 02:09:27,400 --> 02:09:30,440 for the Taekwon Truthers to get there. 2104 02:09:31,080 --> 02:09:36,360 Like the the path has been, the path has been cleared as clear 2105 02:09:36,360 --> 02:09:39,680 as it can get for Taekwon. So if Taekwon doesn't happen, 2106 02:09:41,320 --> 02:09:43,880 he's on draftable next. Yeah, all the Taekwon slappies. 2107 02:09:43,880 --> 02:09:48,560 Myself included should be shamed for their Taekwon bags, so 2108 02:09:48,560 --> 02:09:50,920 let's. Let's move on. 2109 02:09:52,000 --> 02:09:58,640 So love seeing Tank Dale Rashi Rice up here. 2110 02:10:00,280 --> 02:10:01,280 I don't. I don't know if there's. 2111 02:10:01,280 --> 02:10:03,920 Like those? Are guys we talked about before, 2112 02:10:04,200 --> 02:10:06,960 Is there anybody here we haven't talked about before sort of 2113 02:10:06,960 --> 02:10:10,320 standing out to you? No, I mean, I was interested in 2114 02:10:10,320 --> 02:10:14,760 Jalen Hyatt before we got the Taron Taylor rib injury, so he's 2115 02:10:15,160 --> 02:10:17,320 he's still just like a wait and see. 2116 02:10:17,600 --> 02:10:21,280 Jalen Hyatt's like, it seems like the classic kind of rookie 2117 02:10:21,280 --> 02:10:24,200 that does something randomly in the fantasy playoff. 2118 02:10:24,320 --> 02:10:28,200 You know, catches 2 long touchdowns for 22 points or 2119 02:10:28,200 --> 02:10:31,560 something crazy like that in fantasy playoffs and everything 2120 02:10:31,560 --> 02:10:35,880 goes crazy over it, right? But no. 2121 02:10:35,880 --> 02:10:39,240 Otherwise, I mean like gosh, is there, is there anyone on this 2122 02:10:39,320 --> 02:10:42,880 chart where you're even like outside of like those top 2123 02:10:42,880 --> 02:10:47,200 quadrant guys like I mean even Nick Westbrook Akini is not even 2124 02:10:47,200 --> 02:10:51,880 rosterable, but like Jaden Reed, Rashi Rice, Curtis, Samuel, Tank 2125 02:10:51,880 --> 02:10:54,920 Dell, is there anyone else, I mean, we talked about Demario 2126 02:10:54,920 --> 02:10:58,960 Douglas very briefly that he, he's probably the best candidate 2127 02:10:58,960 --> 02:11:02,440 to, you know, maybe vacuum up a little bit of the opportunity 2128 02:11:02,440 --> 02:11:04,800 from Kendrick Bourne. No, these are all gross, aren't 2129 02:11:04,800 --> 02:11:05,360 they? Yeah. 2130 02:11:05,360 --> 02:11:06,160 None. None of it. 2131 02:11:06,160 --> 02:11:07,360 You're gross. Can't. 2132 02:11:07,360 --> 02:11:11,320 Can't roster any of them, right? Yeah, I I mean, we've had our 2133 02:11:11,320 --> 02:11:14,440 graduates from the. Chart I think Rashi Rice is is 2134 02:11:14,440 --> 02:11:16,440 trending to be a graduate from the chart. 2135 02:11:16,440 --> 02:11:24,920 Tank 10% is Zay Jones when? Healthy should be but I I I 2136 02:11:24,920 --> 02:11:29,160 think we've sort of like Barry injuries we've sort of. 2137 02:11:29,640 --> 02:11:33,720 Like fan the players who are playing well enough to become 2138 02:11:33,720 --> 02:11:38,680 starters and and everyone else is sort of a marginal player. 22 2139 02:11:38,680 --> 02:11:40,920 quick points. We did see Quentin Johnston 2140 02:11:40,920 --> 02:11:45,600 finally get targets and and like production in an NFL game, so 2141 02:11:45,600 --> 02:11:49,440 that was like very small signs of life for Quentin Johnson. 2142 02:11:49,440 --> 02:11:52,120 He doesn't get like the full zombie resurrection, rise from 2143 02:11:52,120 --> 02:11:55,840 the dead like our our thumbnail cover boy CD Lamb did. 2144 02:11:56,480 --> 02:11:59,320 But like, if anything Quinton Johnston is scratching from 2145 02:11:59,320 --> 02:12:01,280 inside the coffin. You know you can hear the 2146 02:12:01,280 --> 02:12:02,960 fingernails on the on the coffin. 2147 02:12:03,760 --> 02:12:05,240 Not bad. It's the. 2148 02:12:05,240 --> 02:12:09,880 Yards and no Cliff sounds obviously but it it did require 2149 02:12:09,880 --> 02:12:13,800 referred to the routes it required Josh Palmer to re 2150 02:12:13,800 --> 02:12:19,320 aggravate his knee for that to happen but right Yeah yeah. 2151 02:12:20,680 --> 02:12:25,000 And then the last guy, purely contingent unfortunately. 2152 02:12:25,920 --> 02:12:29,320 The last guy I had Anything noteworthy on on this chart was 2153 02:12:29,320 --> 02:12:34,360 Curtis Samuel and I'm looking at this more as a like an offensive 2154 02:12:34,360 --> 02:12:37,040 trend slash signal to pay attention to. 2155 02:12:37,040 --> 02:12:39,880 So Samuel left the game with injury. 2156 02:12:39,880 --> 02:12:43,320 He was questionable coming into the week and I was looking at 2157 02:12:43,320 --> 02:12:48,120 that as maybe this is a week where Logan Thomas gets more 2158 02:12:48,120 --> 02:12:51,720 involved as the Eagles have you know pretty ferocious pass rush. 2159 02:12:51,720 --> 02:12:55,320 The last time the commander saw the Eagles, they gave up a ton 2160 02:12:55,320 --> 02:13:00,120 of sacks and with Samuel not able to operate in, you know 2161 02:13:00,560 --> 02:13:03,640 that shorter gadgety kind of role where he's getting he's 2162 02:13:03,640 --> 02:13:07,200 been getting some of those type of targets maybe would see Logan 2163 02:13:07,200 --> 02:13:11,880 Thomas fill in for that. When Curtis Samuel was actually 2164 02:13:11,880 --> 02:13:15,440 ruled out we saw Jahan Dotson finally get some more 2165 02:13:15,440 --> 02:13:20,200 opportunity. We also saw gosh, what's dusty 2166 02:13:20,320 --> 02:13:22,600 old. He was a Bill's receiver last. 2167 02:13:22,600 --> 02:13:26,480 Jameson Crowder saw Jameson Crowder have a game of it. 2168 02:13:28,200 --> 02:13:34,080 And so for me, what I see this as is with the absurd amount of 2169 02:13:34,080 --> 02:13:37,280 pass volume that Washington team is able to generate and I I 2170 02:13:37,280 --> 02:13:40,720 could see that number staying high and potentially even 2171 02:13:40,720 --> 02:13:44,560 increasing with their trades to get rid of two defensive pieces 2172 02:13:44,560 --> 02:13:48,240 here at the deadline. Their defense should be worse. 2173 02:13:48,480 --> 02:13:53,120 Their offense has shown they're down to pass and so I would say 2174 02:13:53,120 --> 02:13:56,600 when Curtis Samuel is in and fully healthy, you're less 2175 02:13:56,600 --> 02:13:59,680 excited about, you know basically anyone other than 2176 02:13:59,680 --> 02:14:02,360 Terry Mclaurin. But when Curtis Samuel is out, 2177 02:14:02,360 --> 02:14:06,000 there's just so much opportunity there that that's when you get 2178 02:14:06,000 --> 02:14:09,960 guys like Dotson being more attractive potentially. 2179 02:14:09,960 --> 02:14:11,960 That was kind of my, my take away. 2180 02:14:12,000 --> 02:14:16,160 I think that might be a little too just jumping to conclusions 2181 02:14:16,160 --> 02:14:19,840 after one week or well, you you get. 2182 02:14:19,840 --> 02:14:22,320 Somebody who gets tired out of the game then. 2183 02:14:22,800 --> 02:14:25,520 Obviously it has to condense, and that's sort of what you need 2184 02:14:25,520 --> 02:14:30,200 for Datsun, but doesn't still doesn't. 2185 02:14:30,200 --> 02:14:32,840 Feel great for Datsun. That like, that's what's 2186 02:14:32,840 --> 02:14:37,080 blocking him. Curtis Samuel. 2187 02:14:37,320 --> 02:14:39,920 But obviously good to. Know that there is some. 2188 02:14:40,400 --> 02:14:44,960 There is some potential upside there still for Datsun Assad. 2189 02:14:44,960 --> 02:14:51,240 His note here on Bateman. I I I actually I'm looking at 2190 02:14:51,240 --> 02:14:57,400 the the data here I I can't agree with this where yes he he 2191 02:14:57,400 --> 02:15:02,640 had like a 63% route share which is actually pretty good like 2192 02:15:02,640 --> 02:15:06,680 he's he's he's gone back to to being sort of like a quasi 2193 02:15:06,680 --> 02:15:12,800 starter but he only had 10% targets for our run and. 2 2194 02:15:12,800 --> 02:15:18,200 targets. A good amount of route routes on 2195 02:15:19,800 --> 02:15:24,000 on 20 routes. So he did. 2196 02:15:24,000 --> 02:15:30,560 I guess he got he did well with the two targets but I I don't 2197 02:15:30,560 --> 02:15:32,240 know I I. I feel like. 2198 02:15:32,920 --> 02:15:37,080 The Unless there is more going on with the injury than we know 2199 02:15:37,080 --> 02:15:42,800 and and and maybe there is that unless Bateman has some injury 2200 02:15:42,800 --> 02:15:46,280 that he can suddenly kick. The the dot has just been 2201 02:15:46,280 --> 02:15:53,040 consistently dot he he's not been good and I'm I'm I'm sort 2202 02:15:53,040 --> 02:15:56,760 of ready to bury Bateman. Yeah I I am as well. 2203 02:15:56,760 --> 02:16:01,400 For me, the Bateman stuff is is For me as a a heavy Bateman 2204 02:16:01,400 --> 02:16:03,880 drafter, it's mostly Copium at this point. 2205 02:16:03,880 --> 02:16:07,240 I'm just very glad that I diversified and I picked, say, 2206 02:16:07,240 --> 02:16:10,240 flowers some of the times when I wanted to click Bateman and 2207 02:16:10,600 --> 02:16:14,000 that's my saving grace that I kept clicking both of them. 2208 02:16:14,920 --> 02:16:16,920 So for every Bateman, there's a flowers. 2209 02:16:19,520 --> 02:16:28,240 Yeah, yeah, yeah. So I I, I think we're done then, 2210 02:16:28,240 --> 02:16:30,280 right? I I think that does it. 2211 02:16:30,280 --> 02:16:33,719 I think that wraps up our our Halloween episode. 2212 02:16:34,959 --> 02:16:37,520 We had a positive regression to the mean. 2213 02:16:37,520 --> 02:16:39,200 On. On runtime for. 2214 02:16:39,520 --> 02:16:42,879 Yeah, absolutely. But maybe, I mean, maybe we can, 2215 02:16:43,040 --> 02:16:46,719 you know, trend closer to that two hour mark going forward. 2216 02:16:47,280 --> 02:16:51,840 We'll we'll see next week. But for those of you that made 2217 02:16:51,840 --> 02:16:55,160 it through the entire 2 1/4 hours here with us, we 2218 02:16:55,160 --> 02:16:57,200 appreciate you and and your viewership. 2219 02:16:57,200 --> 02:17:03,600 Hope you found some actionable takeaways from today and until 2220 02:17:03,600 --> 02:17:07,400 next Tuesday at 5:00. Good luck this week everyone and 2221 02:17:07,400 --> 02:17:10,639 we will see you then. See you next week, everyone.