Week 8 is behind us and we come to you on this Hallows Eve with
a very spooky edition of Stat Chasing Pat Fryer.
Helmos. This is why.
This is why I'm Hot Anita. Handjob fix your sight.
Jamar Alpha Play Chase, are you? You can't handle the heat.
It looks like we're finally at this point.
You're right. Happy Halloween, Draco.
And all of those of you in chat, I I noticed that you're not in
costume. I am, in fact, in costume.
I am an irrationally exuberant Cowboys fan, which isn't that
different than my everyday costume.
Yeah, I I I thought we were we were just gonna do Kirk Hoson's
on the on the header of this week and they're like oh, can we
do CD line? I'm like, oh, God damn it,
you're gonna make a talk with my boys again.
Yeah, I mean, for every, for every seedy lamb, there is also
a Tony Pollard. So we'll definitely have to talk
about Tony. Of course.
Very sad with the slew of injuries again this week.
Kirk Cousins out for the season. You know, we get Tarod Taylor
with yet another rib injury. Slash.
I believe if I remember correctly wasn't the Justin
Herbert start because of a Tarod Taylor rib injury where he then
got his lung punctured by the team doctor.
So this guy has bad. Luck with ribs.
Yeah, yeah, root cages have not have not truly doing well but we
did get Tommy DeVito to play some NFL quarterback snap.
So, you know, the NFL giveth and the NFL taketh away.
But I'm sure that we will cover all of that during our charts,
especially when we see, say, Quan Barclay's 382 touches in a
single game. That's only slight exaggeration.
So yeah, let's let's get into these these charts and and as
always, we start off with QB passing and efficiency.
Efficiency and rushing production.
And on the horizontal axis we've got adjusted yards for attempt,
which is like normal yards for attempt but rewards touchdowns
and punishes interceptions. And then on the vertical axis
we've got touchdown rate. self-explanatory.
And then the size of the bubble corresponds to their rushing
yardage per game. And so anybody we we sort of
like I feel like we're looking at a pretty stable chart every
week and I know we've been back and forth about maybe maybe
doing another chart to sort of like give additional takeaways
and any anything sort of sticking out to you.
Yeah good good tease on a potential shake up of the QB
chart. We'll have to to see when I can
get around to coding up a new chart here.
But I think we've got some good ideas there that might lead to
an even more actionable quarterback chart.
With respect to fantasy for right now, dealing with the old
chart format, not a ton of big takeaways I would say, you know
we're starting to see Lamar even even after like not a great weak
here against the Cardinals where Gus Edwards just ate up all the
touchdown production. I I would still say that you
know based on what we've seen Lamar do, based on where he's at
at the chart, I certainly see you know you have those enormous
ceiling games well within the range for Lamar.
So he's if he continues to be underpriced or undervalued in
you know DFS or BR drafts or dog bowl drafts, he's he's one that
seems like a good spot to attack.
Typically in like the the draft style formats he's clustered and
you know if there's elite quarterbacks on the slate, Lamar
goes with them. So I don't really think there's
a huge pricing inefficiency there.
There was in that week where I managed to take down a a Miami
seat but the market quickly corrected that and said Oh yeah,
Lamar Jackson should go basically 123 white right with
Mahomes it Hertz. The other one that I wanted to
mention this week was Purdy we saw and he's he came down a
little bit in TD rate here. His adjusted yards per attempt
is still very high but we've seen a couple I don't, I don't
want to like jump to conclusions and call them bad games from
Purdy, but I don't really think there's a way around calling
this most recent week a pretty bad week from him.
Lots of lots of flavor and and context to add to the
performance. So in that he was coming off of
a concussion, that he only had six days to get right from
there. And he might have been concussed
again during the game. Yeah, yes, there there have been
some studies that people have done showing that players coming
off concussion do see dips in production and that tracks.
I don't know about you, Draco. Whenever I have traumatic brain
injuries, I'm typically just a little bit worse than everything
right after. So every everything involving
quick reactions, attention to detail like.
Brain shaking around my skull. Not not helpful for that.
Yeah. And and this is this is going to
get way too down narrative St. to be actionable at all.
But I I do want to point at it as just a potential example of
like what a concussed guy slash guy recovering from ATBI looks
like versus someone who's got all their wits about him.
When Brock Purdy is sitting there inside the 10 yard line
with a wide open receiver in the end zone.
He just needs to layer in a little touch pass and instead he
just throws a dart right into the arms of the defender, you
know, But two yards in front of him, that might be something
where if he was, you know, at full, full mental processing
strength there, that's one where he's like, Oh yeah, let's just
layer this in. But instead he just rips it
right into the defender for a really costly turnover.
So. I think though apart like that
that that's like helpful like that like as a helpful reference
to a play when I'm thinking about this sort of
statistically. What I'm what I'm saying is over
a longer sample size he's played quite well.
Like the efficiency has been there and often times I find
that the most advantageous situations, especially for
quarterbacks. Other positions too, especially
for quarterbacks where you have a per game or two and people
have these explanations just lined up like they're so ready
to believe. Oh.
Pretty is actually not that good it's a pretty pumpkin and you
have a longer sort of sample size Now we're we're true a game
so it's not like a a vast sample size but it's solid it's half a
season of sample size a pretty playing well that I do think
that's sort of like a if you see dips in ADP ownership pricing
that may I mean pretty he's the he's the type of quarterback
where it's a little bit hard to. Get the true ceiling game just
because he he is a pocket passer on on on an offence that likes
to run the ball quite a lot. But he he he's I I think he's
definitely something where where you can play a a sort of vomit
stack maybe not quite vomit and it it can get there but maybe
even more actionably that I'm I'm still really interested in
San Francisco pass catchers like because.
I I know how strong this offence can be and I'm not I'm not going
to shy away because of one or two weak performances and and
maybe maybe that's sort of understood by most people but if
not I I I think that's a that's a pretty obvious example of a
regression to the positive side kind of the so you're so you're
looking at these last couple performances as more an
aberration than anything and you'd be willing to buy back in
on Purdy gear going forward. Yeah, I I I mean it it's it's
maybe I don't have like the sort of explanation where I know ball
or whatever. I just know that I I I much
prefer to rely on longer sample sizes and I think human beings
are too ready. To believe patterns in smaller
sample sizes and I I I think I just think this is a pretty
classic example where you're better off trusting the larger
game sample OK that's that is fair to play devil's advocate.
I will say the things where Purdy is good are things like
EPA that are very going to be very systemic and more
indicative of the offense as a whole and not as much the
individual player performance. And if we look at this offense
historically and other quarterbacks that have operated
in it, Jimmy Garoppolo also had a very good.
I'm not. I'm not trying to make a talent
argument for Purdy because, like, I I understand all the
things you're saying where, like, the offense is set up to
make him look good, the the, the weapons that he has make him
look good. So I'm not trying to say Purdy's
a world beater, but in terms of fantasy.
Can you still get those 2530 point games that you're getting
before? Like I I I I don't.
I don't see those as as out of the picture and I don't see the
the sort of go go. I think I still see the go go
games from the 49ers where they just have so much talent that it
explodes as very much on the table.
And I I think that's probably the best point and that's where
I personally probably make too many negative assumptions about
Purdy where you're saying it doesn't matter for fantasy how
good or bad he is, that you're you know what you're saying
about Oh well the offensive system is so good.
Yeah. And he gets to exist in that
offensive system. Deal with it, buddy.
Like he's just gonna he's gonna keep crushing and you're gonna
keep crying if yeah so I I do think it was really important to
discuss Purdy though just with this you know this three-week
down stretch I I personally played a lot of Iuka the dog
bowl. I tried to get over my anti
Purdy bias and say yeah it doesn't matter that the offense
is so good and I really leaned in heavily into IUK and Kittle.
I shouted out Kittle is a a good play in that format last week on
the show and that that pay off. But as far as other quarterbacks
here moving on in the chart I'm interested.
My my big question is we've got some interesting guys sitting
here at right around 7 yards per attempt.
Trevor Lawrence, Derek Carr. Stafford's going to miss some
time. Dak Prescott, all all these guys
sitting around here where I feel like they're probably right
around the same tier for Fantasy.
Of course they're they're also right in line with Mahomes and
Hertz, but I don't I don't think that's anything that it'd be
fair to lump these guys in with them.
Have you frozen? Oh, no.
We we we lost you for a second. OK?
The last thing we heard was that he's hanging around that Mahomes
and Hertz. But I don't think that's no, no,
I was I was finishing that thought up with I don't think
it's fair to lump them together, but of these guys of Dak,
Lawrence and Carr, do you have any interest in any of these
three as potential positive regression candidates?
We kind of saw Dak get there this week, but what about
Lawrence and Carr going forward? So I think I I I did call out
Carr as a as as somebody who I I I talked could improve as the
shoulder got better and it it does feel like.
You know everybody's been talking like their Carter's
played awful but truly awful. But above 7 yards per attempt,
adjusted yards per attempt, that's that's pretty good the
solid and and obviously you can see there that he's been getting
the yardage but not the touchdowns.
So that that that's something where I still, I still feel good
about that that having an improvement and maybe it's.
It it it's had we talked about where Chris Olave always has his
hot he's he's been having these high air air yards that haven't
been converted and if if those pay off then you can see a huge
explosion game for the two of them and Trevor Lawrence that
that's that's an interesting one where some of the peripheral
sort of like big time troll stats sort of stuff like that
have said he oh this guy is playing great but his receivers
just keep dropping the ball. That that's interesting in that
like the receivers only really need to put it together for one
game, for that game to be awesome.
But at the same time do you do you I, I'm, I guess I'm asking
Eunice, do you think it's sort of Fair that Trevor Lawrence is
that's just his situation right now where he gets a let down by
the talent around them where it's a lot of not quite elite
receivers not quite #1 receivers.
Yeah I I don't know. I don't I don't necessarily from
the games that I, from what I've watched and you know I don't
really feel like Lawrence is getting let down a ton by his
receivers. There's certainly some you know
some drops where you know if those get converted all of a
sudden his numbers look a whole lot better.
I also think that he might be running just a little bit poor
as far as his his own stats for all the touchdowns that ETN is
scoring, right. If ETN is taking all those
touchdowns off the table and offense, then Trevor Lawrence is
just going to look a little bit worse.
And so I, I, I did want to bring up Carr and Lawrence just
because I think and really Stafford kind of is in the same
group with them for the reason of hey, we saw Kyron Williams
run super hot on touchdowns for the start of the season.
And again this data is through the entire season up to now.
So it takes you know a couple games to really move the needle
for these guys. So I do you know we're going to
miss time on Stafford, but I do think Carr and Lawrence are are
potentially some interesting targets going forward.
I'm actually just looking up right now.
Oh, bummer. Yeah, I I couldn't remember if
the Jags had played the Colts twice already or if they still
had one more Colts game and they they have played them twice
already. So that's a shame.
I was, I was looking for a Jags Colts matchup where we might get
a Trevor Lawrence explosion. But yeah, we're we're gonna have
to wait for. I mean, jeez, there's really
not. The the Machos aren't favorable.
Yeah, it looks like Week 17, which you know, if you remember
is all that matters. Week 17 where they get the
Panthers may maybe that's the spot where we get the the T Law
eruption. Derek Carr as far as like an
eruption spot always just feels like a tiny bit thinner to me.
To have those eruption games purely from the Taysom Hill
touchdown equity vulture phenomenon.
Right. Like like kid, could Derek Carr
easily have a game where he throws for 403.
Yeah absolutely. Like we see it in the Ariard
stats to lava. Like Shahid is getting like you
know average depth of target of 50 for like he's going crazy.
Like if Carr runs hot one week like he could for sure have a
monster week. Yeah you're you're just you're
concerned that you're also fading that Taysom Hill doesn't
come in and steal a big chunk of that production because he he's
very live to and every week so and I do like that I think that
it does you know depress people's perception of cartoon
just having that taste in variable in there.
So he's one that's sneaky to me. Right.
What he's He's played by the by the numbers he's played well,
whereas most people that I feel like the perception is that he's
playing awful. Yeah, which is strange to me and
I like I I hear people calling not to, not to call out Silva,
but on the establish a show on Friday Silva's calling car a
pussy. And I'm thinking the guy like
tore his AC or like sprained his AC joint and came like.
Played like 2 days later or something.
Yeah, I I don't know that that's a a pussy man.
That's that's the guy who's who's gritting it out for the
team. Here's a Here's an interesting
thing that I I wish that I had time to look into this, but
maybe maybe you can shed some light on this for me.
Adjusted yards per attempt that's not going to be
negatively impacted by guys that are are throwing the ball away,
right? Like a throwaway isn't counted
in there in your adjusted yards per attempt.
Is that correct? No, I think that.
I think I can't. I shouldn't.
I I shouldn't know it and I'm but I am pretty sure that it
does count as a it does. OK.
I was I was wondering what if I can look at the Derek Carr stats
as a split and I just remove the million Alvin Kamara 0 yard A
dot check downs and then I look at his adjusted yards for
attempt without all of those little tiny Kamara dink and
dunks in there. You know, not that they're not
going to happen, they're still going to happen.
But I I feel like. Hold on a second.
They're not included. They're sorry, they are
included. Yes, they are included.
They, they are included. OK.
Yeah, I was right. So there.
There there's a APFS stop for aimed passes that that would
correct for that and maybe we should make that adjustment
going forward. Yeah.
Wonder. Wondering if if we extricate the
Kamara, dink and dink stuff, how Karl looks as a passer 'cause I
I do think that that may be skewing his adjusted yards per
attempt a little bit. And again not that those aren't
going to happen but just to get more of an understanding of this
is a guy who is he's pushing the ball down the field.
You know like he's he's chucking it deep to Olave.
He's chucking it deep to Shaheed.
And I'm. I'm looking at their schedule
here. You know we've got Saints Bears,
Saints, Vikings, Saints, Falcons, Saints.
Like Saints, Panthers, Saints, Giants.
Oh my. So I don't know I'm kind of I'm
I'm feeling a buy signal for Derek Carr.
I don't know if that's too hot to take for you, but to me, with
the the way the schedule looks and the the public perception of
him, I think he might be undervalued.
Like I think he's like a a a pretty classy example pocket
passer where he doesn't rush and obviously the offense isn't
perfect so he's not he's not going to the homes every week,
but does he have the 300 yards, 300 plus yards and and three
touch sounds in him in an agreement We he he he he
certainly. Like and and and that is
something where at a really depressed price.
When When's your money? Yeah.
Don't need to spend a ton more time here on the quarterback
chart. The last one we we need to shout
out though before we move on is Kirk Cousins who is making his
Viking funeral appearance on this chart as he tore his
Achilles this week. Very tragic.
Kirk was having a career year. Leading the league in
completions. Believe tied with Tua for first
in the league in total touchdowns.
Just the guy was crushing. I mean with or without Justin
Jefferson Kirk was was ballin this season and he's he's a
really easy guy to want to root for.
He's a little bit, a little bit of a goofy character, but I
mean, he seems like a good person and it it definitely
makes you sad to see a guy like that lose a season of injury.
So got to pour some out for our boy Kirk here.
Yeah, yeah. Root rooting for him to make a
big comeback in next year. Come back, priority year,
hopefully. Oh, that would be great.
All right, let's let's move on to running backs, unless you've
got any other quarterbacks you wanted to touch on.
No, no, covered, who I thought were covering.
And I need to, I need to zoom out a little.
There we go. And so this is our running back
snaps and usage chart and and this part of it deals
exclusively with sort of starters or at the very least
sort of 1A's. And what we have here is rush
attempts, routes, pass blocks and run blocking, all expressed
as a percentage of team total play.
And so when you stack these bars on top of each other, you see
what percentage of the offensive plays the the this running back
was on the field for and then you can see the sort of flavour
for how much of that was rushing attempts, how much of it was
routes, how much was pass blocking.
And so we we sort of covered this, we sort of cover what this
chart is every week. But one thing that I think I
haven't sort of emphasized, and maybe not emphasized enough.
Is the reason we look at stuff like routes in something like
this over targets is because whenever barring a couple of
very elite sort of receiving running backs, when a running
back gets a target it's usually more often than not it's because
the where the offense wanted to put the ball, it wasn't open and
so either the the the blitz got home too quickly or they were
covered. And it's like OK, we're not
going to be able to push the the ball down the field display.
So let's get it, let's hit our check down.
And the the main thing is the main thing of honestly for that
is in terms of usage is that you're on the field that you're
actually running the check down and a huge component of
converting those check downs into targets.
It is look for all but the very best of route runners like your
your Christian McCaffrey who can run all these routes that gets
open and as a trusted part of the receiving offence he he
obviously his ability to get targets is skilled but a a lot
of players it converting routes into targets it it's it's a big
look component good good summary and definitely I think good
clarification on why we're displaying routes here over
targets. One guy that I wanted to to
bring up here was Javonte Williams who we are seeing trend
up the chart. I mean this to me the IT kind of
seems like the entire thesis. Javonte's down near the bottom
right around a Chan and Pacheco you can you can identify him
with a really large percentage. If you look at at the other
green sections of the bar for all the backs like you can see
how much of of his usage is coming from rush attempt.
So when he's on the field they they are pretty keen on putting
the ball in his belly and I it seems really silly.
I know there's been narrative of Sean Payton might not know like
he wasn't familiar with Javonte and admitted as much.
He's like Oh yeah it wasn't didn't know how good this guy
was until we self scouted during the bye and no you know didn't
didn't realize Marvin Mims wasn't getting on the field as
much or or whatnot. I don't know how much of that is
actually real or how much of that is just like hey isn't it
Lol Sean Payton bad. Like isn't that funny?
But to me this kind of looks like signal that Javante is
establishing himself as the preferred back.
Granted it is still a a three headed monster, but I think the
direction that it's trending is Javante will become the usable
one and then it's looking like P Ryan and Julio McLaughlin will
both basically be unusable contingent value type plays
going forward, but wanted to highlight Javante as he creeps
his way up the chart here. That's it.
I think that's a great call then and also interesting in that
context is that he is coming off the ACL injury.
And so as as the season wears on and as the knee becomes in
better and better shape. I I I think that's a that's an
easy trend to buy where it's this is sort of like if you're
thinking about your prior expectations you you would have
expected Javante to. Get an increasingly higher
command of the of the offensive touch share And so it it it
definitely makes sense that it's signal for that to be happening.
The other other, I guess split backfield situation that I
wanted to touch on was we have Zach Moss and Jonathan Taylor
where Jonathan Taylor just starts crushing in the first
half and then goes basically radio silent in the second-half
of the game. Zach Moss still more involved
than Jonathan Taylor managers would like even when Zach Moss
was coming off of a a week where he was a true game time decision
with injury. So really weird to me for Moss
to hang on to so much of that work.
Not sure if you think that that's something that's sticky
going forward. Is he just gonna be a thorn in
Jonathan Taylor's side for the rest of the season?
Is it gonna progress in the direction that Jonathan Taylor
managers would reminds? Me of it.
Do you know what it really reminds me of?
It reminds me of when it was Jonathan Taylor and Hayden Heinz
where JT would be clearly like even though Heinz is was good,
JT is clearly the better back. Should be getting the touches
and it just took longer for that to get established than than
we're expecting. So obviously Zach Moss is a torn
in JT side for now. But I feel like that's a really
fragile like set of circumstances where my and I
guess this is just my opinion. My opinion is that JT is sort of
like. It barring health is a is a
future Hall of Famer and Zach Moss just is not even though
he's playing well right now he is playing well right now and I
just think that it's just sort of an inevitability that JT does
just elevate himself. We're like yes we we just the
way we win is we give this guy the ball and that's not
happening right now that that's frustrating and and.
There is, there's definitely some possibility where it
doesn't happen, but I I do think it's overwhelmingly likely that
by the end of the year and obviously I I don't know when it
that it is AJT show in in that backfield.
So allow me to put a hot take in your mouth.
Are you saying that because JT missed games to start has had a
little bit of a lackluster fantasy production?
You know in his first few games back having to split with Moss,
he may be a really low owned piece come time for best ball
play offs and in week 17 JT against the Raiders may be the
guy you need. I think that if we're going down
Naruto Street, I I find that one really easy to believe.
Definitely that one. Draco has said you can't win the
$3,000,000 without Jonathan Taylor.
You heard it here first. Everyone hold it to it.
True. And and you've got the stat
chasing guarantee on that. Absolutely.
If it doesn't come true, the stat ship chasing will refund
whatever money you lose on that advice.
Yep just e-mail Pete and and and and he'll get you yeah.
If you if you do in fact make the finals with AJT team and you
do not win $3,000,000. I believe Pete and Pat are both
eligible or or you know on the line for refunding you your
$3,000,000 that you should have had Moving on to other running
backs near the bottom of the chart here this is this is was a
bottom of the the chart kind of weak in my opinion as far as
guys where we had important stuff to talk about but that's
Gus Edwards and Darrell Henderson so I'll start with Gus
Edwards. Gus Edwards really demonstrated
this week my entire thesis on why I really wanted to hammer
Justice Hill this offseason. Because I felt like this offense
might be really good and they are just going to get a lot of
opportunities to score the football.
And I just want, you know explosive players on the offense
that I I thought that Justice Hill may be able to work in
there for some Green Zone touches.
Turns out they really think Justice Hill is just a satellite
back. Gus Edwards is definitely, you
know, on on those goal line attempts or those short plunges
it it's definitely Gus Edwards's preferred.
And the biggest painful part for me for that is at the start of
the season when JK Dobbins was still healthy, all for the, you
know, entire 15 minutes that he was, they did take Dobbins out
of the game and give Justice Hill those Green Zone and goal
line touches. They were trying to make Justice
Hill a thing. And it just, at this point
doesn't look like he's ever going to be the thing that the
Justice Hill Truthers want him to be.
You're just you're basically sitting here.
I mean, shoot, even with the Gus Edwards injury, I I think you're
just shit out of luck. It's it's never going to be able
to be the Justice Hill show. You know if you have a a roster
like ours in the stat chasing main event where you're just up
a Creek for running back points just a silk can get you 6 a week
you know. But I do think Gus Edwards is
that thesis playing out of sometimes the touchdowns don't
go through the passing game in this offense and the offense is
high-powered enough that you want those pieces.
And we're seeing Gus he, he's crept on to this starters chart.
Now he's getting more opportunities.
He is kind of like a trap back. He's not getting a lot of
passing game work, but you know, the the touchdown opportunities
are really what drives his value there.
So he's definitely getting on Gus Edwards.
He's definitely getting a touchdown looks and I don't.
I I I don't know. I don't.
I don't like it but. He definitely seems like the
last couple of weeks the the opportunity share for Gus
Edwards has gone up quite a bit and the last two weeks in
particular he's actually played quite well and I guess it it's
running back if it short term like one or two week running
back efficiency is is can be so volatile that there is a part of
me that's hesitant to just say listen.
This is the Gus Edwards show and and it's in his backfield to
lose because he's getting the share and he's playing so well.
Like I I I think that's that's that's true right now and but it
cannot be true for 2 1/2 more months all the way through the
end of the regular season that that does feel a little tough.
I I don't know if the if. If the whole thing, the whole
season is decided for the backfield, yeah, but definitely,
definitely been disappointing for Justice Hill and definitely
need a couple of things to break your way for that thesis to work
out. And I I guess how what's the
action we'll take away in that? We're we're not taking, we're
not taking Justice Hill in the dog Bowl in in shorter benches.
She's probably not rosterable. He obviously is for our Extreme
0 RV squad in the main event but is he is he still probably some
at at back where because the offence is good he still has
actually he still has a good bit of potential value.
I I I think that's still true, but don't definitely don't feel
nearly as good about it. As as we did when they're
bidding what, $600.00 on them, $5 on them in in Week 2.
Yeah, absolutely. I I just to me the the way I see
it playing out is let's say both Gus and Justice stay totally
healthy the rest of the season. The Ravens have kind of told us
like we like deploying Justice Hill in this specific way and
and it's that specific way. It's not a lot of volume.
It's they want to use them. He He looks good too when he
touches the ball, you know, And he got a kind.
Of like, great. That means we're using them,
right? Yeah, exactly.
And I and and I don't really fault them for that.
He's not not such a big bodied guy.
Maybe he truly can't hold up to that workload.
But anyway, thought that was important just on the back of
the monster game that Gus Edwards had this week to provide
a little clarity in that situation.
A week where it wasn't a monster performance.
But there is relevance here for Fantasy, especially with Matt
Stafford likely going to miss the game.
We're looking at Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman
chopping up a backfield here. And while Henderson did get more
opportunities overall, I think it was a lot closer than the
market anticipated. And it really looks like it's
basically a true split between Henderson and Freeman, with
Henderson having a little bit of an edge in the passing game.
Do you think that's a fair assessment of the situation?
Yeah, I I think that's pretty fair.
And the only thing that and and maybe this is a debate.
Maybe we need to talk about it. My my sort of gut reaction when
I see that at Match Stafford isn't playing is that like, oh
shit, I don't. I actually don't want the
running backs now because. He's such a like he's so
important for the offense that him not playing means that the
the overall pie could just shrink them dramatically.
I definitely, I agree. I agree with you 100% there.
I think it's more for for people that are in dire straits for
running back. It might be a break glass in
case of emergency and so let's let's give a couple comparisons.
Let's say you're staring down Darrell Henderson or Amari de
Mercado. Who are you rolling with this
week? Yeah, probably Henderson, just
because there's definitely, they're probably similar
situations where they have sort of not full and.
There's there's other backs hanging around but then Arizona
they're going to start Clayton tune.
So it's like you you really you really need that a really high
share and for things to break your way for them.
Ricardo to to get there, where's?
I don't know. Maybe the Rams have shown that
they can at least put up some games of production with.
With Stafford out that maybe maybe maybe Henderson is is
slightly better but that that that does feel there.
I don't feel confident in in that at all that that feels
pretty close. Here's here's a gross one from
Andre Stevenson or Darrell Henderson.
Oh, that's tough, isn't it? Because like.
From Andre is like turtle fourth round pick but.
Hasn't played well. Offense has been quite bad at
times. Like you, you you sort of do
have to say Roman trade, just because if you're putting any
weight on your priors, like they obviously leaned him
dramatically, but. If you're if you're talking
qualitatively and and quantitatively about the
situations, they they don't sound that much different,
right? Yeah, it's he's really losing
work to Zeke Elliott or am I? Do I and and the Patriots?
Might have considered trading Matt Jones but they didn't like
nobody called like, no, you're good, you can have them.
Can you keep them? Not at not not not great there
at all. The only other guy that I had
where I wanted to bring him up and he's he's more near the top
of the chart is Saquon, who had just absurd usage on the back of
Tommy DeVito out there and the Giants refusing to pass the ball
that just just wanted to highlight the absolute crazy
amount of usage that Saquon got this week.
Oh, and you know what? I'd be remiss if I didn't
mention Jamir Gibbs, who has snuck into the second spot as
far as the best usage profile in the I.
I should say that's two games, yeah, because as sort of regular
listeners will remember we we're, we do this on a four week
sort of rolling average and he wasn't there was either a BI or
he wasn't available for the other two.
So that is a sample size of two games and and obviously 2
monster games. Well, important context I think.
Yes. Yeah, very, very good to clarify
that. But yeah the, I mean really it's
just and and you know this is something where last night on
the Showdown slate, ETR had Gibbs projected for like an
absurd amount of points. It's like 21.1 and then they
brought it down to 21 point O and run.
The Sims also had Gibbs for just a disgusting amount.
Like looking at the projection like this is wrong.
I it doesn't even matter how good the player is, like the
base median projection is not like 'cause I think run The Sims
is even higher. It's like 23 or something.
It just like this is not a base projection.
Like I'm sorry, something's messed up in your inputs and for
Run The Sims, they had crazy crazy play volume for the Lions.
Turns out it all, it all played out that exact way where those
crazy projections came to fruition for Gibbs.
And so I think my big take away there is just the Lions
backfield produces such an absurd amount of opportunity and
expected fantasy points that if it's a game that they're
remotely in, it's just you. It's kind of like the Dolphins
running backs, right? Like you play Dolphins running
backs, you also play Lions running backs.
And of you know, when you get Montgomery in there and the
works going to be a little more split.
Then it's less attractive. But I do think that we're going
that direction for the Dolphins as well.
Where as you know, Jeff Wilson, Junior and Ahmed are working in
and you get a Chan back. It's going to be more of hey
these guys are less reliable week in and week out for these
monster games where it it condenses on one guy you know
when there's people missing due to injury or whatnot but still
assets you love to have invest wall because those blow up games
can come still guys that if they're you know available at
low ownership or depressed prices in DFS you like to play
them just because they're on a a great offense.
So really it's just again, not to go back to the there's
offenses you want. There's offenses that you don't
want point that we've talked about on the show before.
But yeah, I I. I think, I think that is a great
point where the lines are are are clearly very fantasy rich
environment. All round I do think it's it's
worth calling out that there's a there's this Twitter page called
the Coach Speak Index and they they sort of look at the
different trends which coaches say things and then what they
say actually translate and and sort of what's the rate of that
and the Dan Campbell for workload stuff if he says it in
the season. Hey, we this guy is going to get
the ball. That guy gets the ball and they
sort of like flagged that where when he said something along the
lines of I'd love to say we were going to spill, spill him or
whatever. But no we really need we we need
him to play. He's going to play a lot and I'm
sure that was at least a part of the the big projections for
Jamir, where? Yeah like you said it it is a
great offense to be a part of and and then when David
Montgomery is out he he sort of is a clear far and away belt
bell cow. I I do think, I do think it'll
be interesting to see what the split will be when David
Montgomery comes back because on the one hand they love David
Montgomery and they've made these comments in the past where
like they see him as the as the guy who can take the load and.
He can take the punishment and Jamir Gibbs is their change of
pace and but there's also a thing where they can't put the
genie back in the bottle where they have, they have given Jamir
Gibbs the rock and he has done what he's played well.
So it's like they can't really say that anymore that he's just
this this race car that they don't want to use a sedan or
whatever. Yeah, I I definitely think it's
a situation and a monitor going forward.
But just always err on the side of playing your Lions.
You know, Lions will make a great offense.
Let's let's move on to our backups chart here.
Yeah so it's it's the same chart except this as as you can see
these are people with 25 to 40% of routes plus plus rush
attempts. Aaron Jones will.
It might take him a couple of weeks to get up there, but he's
going to get back to the starters chart sooner than
later. He finally got, I believe was he
above 50% snaps this week but finally working in for more
work. I think on the you know the flip
side of offenses you want to have.
The Packers are an offense you do not want to have.
They look bad, yeah. It's just like, plain and
simple. The Packers don't seem like an
offense that I want a part of, unfortunately.
Aaron Jones 50% snap rate 40% useful sort of 11% rush.
Attends 29% at routes. But I agree where that offense
is pretty abysmal and you sort of need.
If a guy is going to play in that offense and and produce,
they need to get the touchdown and there's usually not that
many to go around. They also they were sellers here
at the trade deadline. And so to me, I mean, not that
this is very different than they've already been operating,
but to me, I would wonder if that means that we see even more
opportunities for, you know, their rookie players or guys
that they're they just don't know exactly what they have.
Maybe we maybe we see the backfield get shaken up a little
bit and we get some of those guys, mix it in, who's, you
know, third and 4th down the depth chart just to see what
they have, 'cause they clearly they're, they're not a big fan
of what they've got of AJ Dillon.
Aaron Jones is not long for this league, so the Packers have a
void to fill a running back. I wouldn't be surprised if later
in the season we see some of these younger guys mix in
Patrick Taylor. Is that is that their third guy
if I'm remembering? Yeah, yeah, he's the Green Bay
guy. He is.
He's 25, so not, but I think he was a rookie last year, yeah, so
I I would wouldn't be surprised. Oh, and he he does show up here
on the chart as well. I didn't, Yeah, he does, Yeah,
at the top of the head. One drafted 3 agents in 2020 for
Green Bay Packers. He he was actually he was on the
New England practice squad as of wait, hold on a second here.
This just says 2 weeks ago the New England Patriots signed them
to their practice squad, Sniped him, sniped him away.
And so that leaves, gosh, who's that other back that they they
had work in there anyway. Wouldn't be surprised.
But then he played at OK. He last played for the Packers
Week 5 S That's, yeah, long, long and short of it.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers kick the tires on a
couple of their deeper on the depth chart.
Running backs, you know, continue to mix in all of their
young wide receivers, get the random Samare Toure looks in
here and there, you know, see what they've got in their their
two young tight ends that they've drafted.
I mean, we've already seen a a good amount of run for Musgrave,
but anyway, other running backs on this backup chart, we
mentioned Royce Freeman a little bit already, no one else.
I really had a ton of, you know, new take away on.
Did you have anyone else you wanted to talk about here?
I think it's it's sort of a little bit interesting that
Cream Hunt, it is still quite low that that does make me think
that. Jerome Ford is still the back to
own in Cleveland. Yeah, 100% agree with you there.
And the fact that they rushed forward back from allegedly a
high, what they call a mild high ankle sprain, which does not get
the. Lowest grade, high ankle sprain
you've ever seen in your life. Yeah, whatever, man.
Whatever we're doing with that. But yeah, the fact that they
rushed him back, it it's clear to me that like the reason that
they didn't have Hunt on the roster to start the season was
they knew he was washed. They didn't like having him on
the field last season and he's purely here out of necessity
now. Like maybe if Pierre Strong.
I I don't know that Pierre Strong could really usurp cream
Hunt for anything. But I mean I'd I'd still keep an
eye out for it. But yeah, the the most relevant
take away is like Jerome Ford is still the one A there and as far
as backs to own and play that's that's the one that you're
really wanting to do. The other guys that I actually
have takeaways on here are guys that I think are are going to be
better to point out on the next the efficiency chart, so.
OK, yeah, let's, let's move on. So we've got the running box
expected points on. Efficiency chart.
So it's rushing expected points on the horizontal, receiving
expected points on the vertical, and the size of the bubble
corresponds to efficiency. And like we mentioned on the
prior chart, this is rolling for a week.
So week five through Week 8, and I'm sorry, I did, I did
interrupt you there. No, you were good.
I was trying to rush to the podium to capitulate because you
were super right last week when you were trying to talk me off
of some potential positive regression for Damien Pierce.
And maybe it was just the rumors about the knee.
Maybe he's going to be fully healthy after the buy and they
just give him a full 20 carry workload.
Nope, it is. It's 100% exactly as you called
it. It is.
Devin Singletary is just the guy that Devin Singletary could
absolutely show up to any coach that he's ever played for his
house and take his daughter out on a date.
They just love something about Devin Singletary.
He's a good man because coaches love him and it's not that Price
has been anything special that he's, you know, he's should be
keeping Singletary off the field.
But yeah, this backfield is for me, like in a in any kind of
format where I'm needing that high single week, upside
complete. Stay away.
I I will not touch Pierce. I will not touch Singletary.
In any kind of like tournament type setting where I need the
upside. The only way you're getting
there is just fluky touchdown luck for.
For here's a here's a crazy stat and and and something that it
blows my blows my mind a little bit.
So for the backfield of Houston and Week 8, the expected points.
For for every running back in in for Houston was 29.3, but the
highest expected point for any individual player was 10.4 for
Damien Pierce. So that's 10.4 Damien Pierce 9.
Devon Singletary And then something called an Andrew Beck
7.9 Mike Boone 2.6 But it's it's.
It's pretty, pretty wild. But what if it just split that
much? What if I told you I've played
some Andrew Beck on Denver Showdown slaves last season when
he was a tight end for them? I mean sounds like a sounds like
a smart showdown showdown It was.
He was running hot at on on touchdowns last season.
But yeah when when I saw him vulture that Damien Pierce
touchdown and I had some Damien Pierce in the dog bowl, I was
like this is this is just fucking perfect.
Andrew Beck comes back to haunt me an entire season later
because I I remember telling. I had a couple buddies.
I was saying like, I'm pretty sure Beck is like Beck's the
skeleton key to the Showdown slate.
Everyone wants to play dulcet. I'm jamming in Beck like this is
great. Insane leverage.
Low owned. I'm solo shipping Millie's and
then Beck does nothing the week that I try to get on him.
And then of course this week where I try to play Damien
Pierce for the first time like ever in my life, Beck vultures A
touchdown. So that was like, it is just
poetic. Sometimes the universe does
stuff like that where it's just beautiful.
You couldn't script it any better.
Well, I'm sure they'll be 0. Hesitant hesitancy to to play
him and Showdown the next opportunity.
Yeah, I I won't X him out of the pool.
How about that? On this chart though, the the
true like star absolute King that we have to talk about and
it it literally it it makes me sick to say anything positive
about this guy, 'cause he's a deplorable human, he should be
in jail. He's a piece of shit attempted
murderer Alvin Kamara. But the role for fantasy, where
he is a, you know, effectively A proxy for random number
generation for us, he sure sure do generate the random numbers
high. So I mean, yeah, like he's he's
getting touchdowns, he's getting involved in the passing game
early. When he had first come back, we
had a huge skew to where so much of his value is coming in and
receiving expected points. Now it's normalized more to
where he he's just so game script proof.
It's like what? It's everything you want out of
a running back. Just incredible, incredible
role. I'm I'm down extremely bad
'cause I have like no Kamara in Bestball.
I just refused to draft him. Thought the suspension could be
way worse. Really went heavy on the Kendray
bags. But yeah, he is an elite, elite
fantasy option going forward just purely because of the role.
It doesn't even matter that he's not so hyper efficient on the
ground. He's a first round pick.
It's just redraft today. Yeah, As stupid as it like,
late. Like into first.
Yeah, the role is so, so good. It's like, 'cause the the Saints
are at least a functional offense where they're like
scoring. They do this thing where they
like accumulate yards and score touchdowns, whereas like the
other guy with this kind of. Role Is he skinny Leonard
Fournette? Yeah, yeah, he's he's skinny.
Like slightly less dusty Leonard Fournette.
I I think that's probably an apartment comparison.
But I I was getting to Saquon Barkley has like a similar role.
It's he he doesn't have as good a passing game role as Kamara
but he's getting so many carries.
But the offense is so trash it doesn't matter.
Like it's so crazy that you could have a role that Saquon
has and and not just smash every single week.
But yeah, Saquon Barkley is like the if, if not priced up like
your dream cash, cash, game, DFS, running back option.
You're just going to touch the ball a billion times and you're
like, well, he can't goose me. He's good for 12 to 14 no matter
what. But yeah, those guys have insane
roles, yeah. Pretty it it is.
Any anytime you see a role with over 20 expected points per
game, it's definitely goes without saying.
Very, very good for fantasy. I do.
I do wonder though and and and push back if you will.
Isn't the sort of like the idea of the elite running backs is
the the legendary upside as our as our friend there and and and
mothership podcasts, Guy Packer Rain says.
And the the legendary upside season does require a good
efficiency. Where it's like 10 expected
points in the receiving, 10 expected points in in rushing
and then five points over expected and and and over the
the big game sample that's how it happens.
So I I think for Camaro where he's going clearly you're
getting a great outcome but him and and Barkley I I I am pretty
hesitant to say that they can both deliver sort of like the
the true. Like grind your face into the
dirt season. Yeah, I think for me, I
definitely would agree with you on Barkley.
I I just don't see it. He has to.
He would just have to one man team it.
You know, like Saquon Barkley's break in breakaway touchdowns
every game for him to get to A. Right.
Yeah, End of the season. And for Kamara, for me, what I
would push back on is you're right that he's not getting
there in the traditional legendary profile that Pat's
outlined, but he's getting there because his expected points are
12:00 and 12:00. It's not ten and ten with
efficiency, it's 12:00 and 12:00 with mediocre efficiency.
And so I I would be very surprised if Kamara puts up in
in even even if we just say from rest the season to end of
season, we throw out the games he's already had and threw out
the suspension. I would still be very surprised
if he gets to like the true legendary 23 point per game
threshold in full PPR. But like we saw in past seasons
where no running back gets there to that legendary threshold,
this is probably, I mean like Christian McCaffrey could get
there this season but otherwise like is there anyone else that
you really see? Is anyone actually live for a
legendary season for the entire season first, and then let's
let's truncate that to the remain.
Utter and CMC. What about Travis CTN?
That's a that's a good question. Let's let's put a pin in that
one till we get to the next chart 'cause I want to use the
expected points kind of look at that.
But then, before we move to this next chart, let's talk about and
for the remainder of the season. Could have the pace that would
be legendary if they were to do it over the entire season on
this. Chart, I think Bruce Hall.
Could get there for sure, yes. I am leading the witness to
Bruce Hall. It's like the rest of the year
focus. On this chart, look at the big
dot. You're seeing the CMC with the
big dot. Yeah.
And that's that was my assessment too, though
earnestly. I think that if we were going to
redo the draft, that's actually a good question.
We redo the draft right now it's the end of the first round.
CMC or excuse me, CM, CS gone already.
He's 101102. Right.
But it's it's Breece Hall and Kamara after all the big
receivers and Travis Kelsey are on the board.
You're into the first round. Who are you taking between?
Kamara or Breece? Yeah, easily, Breece.
Like I I'm. Like I would obviously have to
play the ADBADP game, but. I like if it was a rest of
season from here week nine out I I I would be like thinking to
myself you know I should be taking Breeze Hall here like
even in like the first six picks just and.
And then would you be Kamara or Barkley, let's say you're you
know, second round or or even I, I I think it is Kamara over
Barkley there. For for sort of the reasons
you've outlined there, where his.
He he's got the the the the functional offense.
He's got the nicer receiving role and and sort of more game
script match up proof just because they they want to
involve them so much in their offense in in in all these
various different ways. And then just to to touch on
Jacobs really quick, because Jacobs is like Diet Kamara right
now, 'cause he's bad. He's not actually good at
running the football, which some some people say running back
should be good at running the football.
But he's been atrocious and pretty much any metric that you
look at there. But he has been receiving
targets in the passing game, really.
And you you did see it last night, like when the Raiders are
down, I mean. The offense was entirely non
functional last night, but I don't know that that's going to
be very different going forward for the rest of the season for
the Raiders. But when they're down and they
don't have guys getting open down field, the Jacobs safety
valve is like that is the Jimmy G special.
Like let me let me throw it to Jacobs here and not take a
negative play. I'm trying to think of what the
situation was. I want to say it was a fourth
down. Oh yeah, it was like 4 and seven
or something. And.
You should check down 5 yards short with with no green grass
like is. The only way Jacobs was getting
a first down is if he like picked up the defender and
carried him with him across the five yards.
As I I laughed out loud. I had no chance of of working.
God, God bless Jimmy G the funniest game on the football
field. I'm.
I'm now, I'm. I'm.
Moving my my pendulum or my my meter is moving from you know I
I I'm looking at the long term data and and I'm I'm I'm sort of
suspecting that he's not very good and that he's not going to
be very good and and the more games I get where he's he just
doesn't play well overall the more I'm like OK last year was
an aberration the role is good but.
When the offense is bad and the player is bad, then it it's sort
of like it almost doesn't matter for the role that like you know
it's he's a pretty classic typical dead zone back.
So would you say last year Jacobs was the saviour of the
slappies in that, you know, not a, not a good profile, didn't
look to be a good back? Probably the argument for the
Jacobs drafters to not be called slappies was his price
eventually got depressed to the point where it wasn't a slappy
pick to take him. But.
Could you draw a parallel between Jacobs and Adam Thielen
this year, where you also were in fact a slappy if you're
selecting Adam Thielen, but by the end of the summer where he
was so pushed down, it probably was correct to fill up on your
Thielen shares there. Yeah, TLN.
Is a little bit I think is a little bit trickier because any
anytime you have these sort of like second team receivers and
and this is this sort of speaks to I I like to think of it as
like. I guess results versus process.
Whereas obviously the result for Thielen is is very very good.
But. Even at the cheap price somebody
like Teal and who was clearly he was and and is at the tail end
of his career and. Those guys?
No, almost. No matter.
How cheap they are? Unless they were once a truly
elite player, then I think the roster spot that this the
honestly the opportunity cost the roster spot.
Is is very important consideration with those older.
Players and and. And receivers so I don't I don't
think fading teal and was bad even even knowing the result
because I think that if you were to replay that over and over I I
I don't I don't know that you're like expected outcomes are bad
by not taking him. So do you think?
I don't think there's an applicable lesson.
To to put a bow on it and and maybe be the applicable lesson
missing on players like Jacobs and Thielen.
Now that we've got a couple, we've got two seasons where
we've got these guys that are just smashing absolutely winners
at cost. But you're saying that missing
on those players is the cost of doing business as a thoughtful
drafter that's optimizing for the right things.
Yeah. Yeah, for sure.
And and the. Other the other part of it is,
is that like? You're not going.
You're never like we're humans. We're none of us are you.
You're kind of a machine but most people aren't machines.
And the idea of like you're going to have the perfect draft
every draft and the your your your your ownership levels are
just going to be perfectly calibrated to perfect it it it
it's not real like that. That's not a that's not a
realistic, like, goal for anybody.
What you're trying to do is even even if you're trying to play
exploitively and and pick your players and and try to get to
20% exposure on on lots of guys, what all you're trying to do is
make sure that you're at your exposure levels are better than
the field. You're just trying to beat 8888
for everybody and you can miss on on big smashes and and still
be better than the field. Just because you're also passing
on the huge bus and I think too, especially when you're playing
tournaments there, there's a lot of like luck involved in that
you you can you can miss on players but if you can build 1
squad where you hit on a bunch of players you you hit on the
right players and and the right amount of players across that
team then. It's like you've done your job,
you've got your super team, you get to the final and and and you
you roll the dice and you go from there.
So maybe that was a bit of a long explanation, but I think
that was a really, really good explanation.
It's it's more about the pursuit of the tie, the one roster it
all comes together on than the individual exposures of getting
to say that, well, I I got a bunch of Adam Thielen and he,
he's doing so good, It's like, yeah, well all your teams look
like shit because you're a donkey, right?
And I mean like you can still. Like you can still say, hey, I I
want to target this exposure, I want that exposure, but just
don't I guess like you're saying.
Don't sort. Of victory lock one exposure.
Because it's it's it's across the whole thing.
But then also don't don't kill yourself.
If something if something that that you weren't on works out
like maybe maybe you do need to re evaluate and and and there is
a lessons in in in learning from data but not always.
I I feel like not always. OK, let's let's move on to our
second expected Fantasy points chart here for running backs.
So and this same chart. And and and.
People often say, oh, hey. You don't have so and so new
chart and we're like Oh no, he was on the other one.
And you're probably better at me explaining how we separate these
two charts out. Yeah, So what we did just for
readability, cuz if I combined all of the players on one chart,
it would just be a you know, complete mess of colorful
chickenpox of dots where you couldn't read anything.
So what we do is we order the players based on their expected
fantasy points, their total between the rushing and
receiving. We order them in a list and then
we split them into two sets, the odd set and the even set.
Where the odd set is the players ranked 13579, etcetera, even
said is 2468, etcetera. We split them up into two
charts. That way you get a nice mix of
guys that are gonna fall in the different bands of each chart.
So it's it makes them easier to read across.
And so on this chart, we see Jamir Gibbs emerging in that
extreme elite alpha roll like Kamara and Barkley had.
Again, this is only that two games of data that we've got for
Gibbs, just the way that the rolling four weeks have worked
out for him. But I I really think that it
goes to show because between Gibbs and Craig Reynolds, who
Craig Reynolds on the last chart was in that 5 to 10 expected
fantasy point band. But between Gibbs and Reynolds
you're looking at like damn near 30 expected fantasy points for
the team and and so that is that's a backfield where I'm
very interested in in having pieces of that just like we
talked about with Miami in previous weeks.
But yeah, very important to monitor.
When Montgomery gets back, how does the workload shift?
I I just think with either of these backs like for best ball
you're going to be if you had Jameer Gibbs even at the fourth
round cost that he was going at, you're going to be happy because
of the Spike weeks that he's already been able to deliver.
And if you have David Montgomery, you're going to be
happy because of the raw points and Spike weeks he's delivered
at a depressed cost. So both, both great picks there
a guy that I I wanted to talk about going forward and also to
to go back on what you had said as far as ETN.
So you mentioned ETN as a potential legendary type of
season here and so we see in the rushing he can get that right.
Like his his expected points per game on the rushing side is is
elite. He's at that, you know right
about 12 expected points per game, which is really, you know
one of the highest marks out there in the league.
You know, you got Ken Walker maybe a little bit ahead of him,
but his involvement in the receiving game, as far as his
expected points per game is lacking a little bit there to
get to that true, you know, absolute secondary.
Season. Yeah, and I don't think that
it's for lack of opportunity. He's running more routes this
season. And So what I would say is he's
like, right on that borderline of he probably can't give you a
legendary season this year, but for me, it's a guy where you
know, whenever he's either. Overlooked by the field or
undervalued, Underpriced, whatever it is, that's a back
where you should be really happy to play him.
Now this last week, for reference, in the dog bowl he
was at the beginning of the week he was, you know, the second
back off the board after only CMC.
And that was a spot where I'm willing to pass on the price
because you could get guys like Kamara and Breece Hall and
Saquon later and not have to pay such a premium there.
But I would say when when the roles are reversed and when you
have ETN going behind that cohort of guys, it's real.
It just becomes a price game. Just know like what type of back
he is. Like for example, just in a
vacuum, let's say that Saquan and ETN in a future dog bowl
draft are going right back-to-back to each other.
Who would you prefer in that scenario if it's Saquon?
Or ETN, yeah. It's ETN all day.
Yeah, right. And so it's just just knowing,
like to be price sensitive on him and when he's in that cohort
of eyes that belong with him, as far as expected fantasy points,
they can't go alongside. CMC, Right, yeah.
Don't don't take him alongside. It's just going to beat the piss
out of him. But if if you're talking about
the guys who have elite. Roles, but they don't have his
talent and efficiency. Then he he He's an easy bet over
them. Thank you.
A much more succinct way of saying what I was rambling
towards. No, no, that was I I I.
That was helpful for me as well because it it it helped me frame
better frame how to think about ETN as well.
I've got a. Got a question for you on Swift.
So Swift is interesting to me. And you know we've talked about
what an elite offense it is. You know the the role is good.
He's clearly the 1A. But like this week there were
spots especially in the first half as I was watching this game
as a very interested you know had had lots of Eagles all over
all my entire fantasy portfolio between Bestball, Dog Bowl DFS
what have you and I. I just found myself getting so
frustrated watching Kenny Gainwell who to me this this
might this is probably biased because I had everyone but Kenny
Gainwell and it was very vivid to me watching how shitty he
looked. But does Kenny Gainwell look
worse than previous years Kenny Gainwell has looked?
Because I feel like in past years it always was oh Gainwell
doesn't get a ton of opportunities but he always
looks good with what he gets and but the team doesn't involve him
a ton and you know we like Gainwell.
The team likes Gainwell for me, watching this, the first half of
this game, I felt like every time gainwell touched the ball
was like, why did we waste a play on this?
This was stupid, right? Right.
You you have a an All Star level talented offense like truly
truly offensive line quarterback receivers tight end Yonder swift
and it. I I agree with your assessment
that and. He is is not he's not up to
their caliber he's he's and and maybe maybe it's more obvious
than previous years because of the the surrounding talent.
Now obviously a lot of these are returning players but I I would
say that Swift is is better than than Paula Sanders.
So maybe the comparison there is is tougher on him.
That's fair. That might be.
But he definitely hasn't played well.
Gainwell's not. Played well and and So what I
would what I want to know is and this is we're going to start
getting into having to make assumptions about rational
coaching which is always dangerous.
Are the Eagles going to see? What we're seeing and say gosh
Kenny, we love you, you're our guy you know we're we're going
to have you you know take some snaps but it is his opportunity
could we see Swift's opportunity increase is really what I'm
asking because that's what I'm interested in right and.
I think that's what we should see.
But I don't. I don't know.
Like what? What I get sort of caught up on
is that the coaches, coaching Staffs frequently have a guy
where they just trust when he's in there that he's not going to
screw up in some monumental way. That the stuff that they're
looking at like, oh, he's running the right route.
Oh, he's he's got his. Let's pick up stuff on point.
Nobody has to remind them what the play is as they're breaking
the huddle like and and and stuff like that where it's like
stuff that we don't care about that maybe may it feels like
maybe he's doing he's the type of guy that might be doing that
quite well and and when. The offense is rolling that.
Like, it's not like a pain point.
But at the same time, I I do I do think it's true that.
Somebody who is playing inefficiently and and not
particularly well amongst better players that that like them
keeping their opportunity shares is always going to be fragile
because it just takes somebody else to to keep playing well.
It just takes one play or one game where or or two games where
it's like OK, we we we just can't do this anymore.
We we we we need to to to change things up a bit.
So I I do. I do think that there's
definitely a chance where they they they take the ball from
gainwell. But it it it, it's a bit harder
when the team is this good, it it it's harder for me to be
confident about it. So here's here's a question
I've. Got going forward.
So we talked about how Javante may be earning more opportunity
going forward and we're not entirely sure we, we think Swift
should earn more opportunity. But you see Javante's in that
cluster there with Darrell Henderson and Chuba Hubbard and
David Montgomery right there in that 10 to 15 expected fantasy
points band. I would assume that we could
certainly see him moving up into that 15 to 20 range.
Now who do you prefer REST? Of season knowing, you know, the
trend that we're seeing with Javante versus Swift, where it's
a little ambiguous if he's going to get more work or not, but
he's already in that 15 to 20 point threshold.
Do you, do you have a strong lean one way or another between
Javante or Swift rest of season? I think I still.
Would be. Swift because the like you're
you're talking about somebody with.
Already that they're already getting the role that we'd like
to see for Javante and so we're we're doing a little bit of
rejection here with Javante and you don't have to do that for
Swift. You just like that that's that's
the amount of snaps that he plays that's that's those are
the opportunities that he gets and then when you when you sort
of point out that the Eagles offense is much better that's
helpful. Somebody might say, well, you
know. Jalen Hurts steals these
touchdowns with the tush push and whatnot, but that's already
factored in in in the Expected Points that Swift is not
getting. Even Despite that, he's still
getting your your 15 to 20 expected points and is is, is
not. Coming off the.
ACL tear I I, I I'm pretty. I think I'm pretty.
Strongly swift over Javante. Yeah, I I I would be too.
I thought it was a good, good point to compare as we talk
about Javante potentially trending up.
One interesting aside regarding the tush push before we move on
to the tight end chart here, I don't know if you saw that
Washington figured out a counter to the tush push.
I'm very curious to see if other teams pick up on this and are
able to execute it the way that Washington did.
But for anyone who didn't see that play, essentially what
Washington did was they leaned into the strength of the tush
push and said we know that you can get lower than us, you can
have the low, you can win low, go ahead.
And they sent defenders over the top to punch the ball out from
Hertz up top and where everyone on the Eagles is interested in
getting as low as they possibly can get.
Truly no one contesting. Defenders coming over the top.
Then it's just a game of how many punches on that football
can Jalen Hurts withstand? And then #2 is now that teams
kind of have, you know this is an option to try and beat it.
How many opportunities do you really want to give teams to
just full on cock back and punch the shit out of your
quarterbacks, arms at hand? You know, like if I not, you
know, no one's, no one's out here.
You know, bounty gate hunting for, you know, injuring players.
But if I'm if I'm a defensive coordinator and I'm talking
about how we're going to shut down the tush push, I'm like,
you make if they're getting the touchdown from it, you make them
pay that that hand better be swollen as shit when Jalen goes
to the sideline if he doesn't fumble that ball, you know, not
everybody knows this. In my last year I I sorry.
When I lived in Ireland I coached American football.
My last year I was a defensive coordinator and and maybe maybe
people are going to be mad at me for saying this but if your
quarterback was running it like that that was that was that was
the thing we always had to emphasize if he's going to run
it you have to hit the shit out of him.
And so I think that's like just a basic sort of like maybe maybe
ugly side of football where it's just a basic principle and it's
I I I think I I think that's a pretty interesting point I I I
hadn't I hadn't seen that myself I hadn't realized.
But I I definitely agree with you where that that seems like a
pretty effective counter. Jalen Hurts is a big boy, but at
the same time you want that trying hands.
Yeah, don't don't matter how big or.
Strong you are when another big strong man just smashes your
hand. I mean a football's hard,
football's a rock basically. You can get your hand smashed by
another big ass man. That's not going to feel good.
The other thing is too, like if a guy really gets over the pile
and gets like a palomalu style flying leap at it and you just
put your face mask right on that.
Like that's that's not a recipe that you want to run back a lot
of times for your quarterbacks. So right I I'm putting a it's a
vulnerability for the I I wanna I wanna watch it going forward
the Eagles. Did of course show a look that
they are able to remain multiple from the tush push formation,
right? So love, love the game theory of
that stuff. Yeah, yeah.
I thought it was worth bringing up.
All right, let's, let's get into tight ends.
Unless there was any other running back you wanted to go
over. And yeah, we're bringing up the
Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet stuff where I know
they actually sort of split the snaps last week.
But I I do think it's also worth calling out that Kenny Kenneth
Walker, he did have an injury going into the game and I I.
I would be. I'd be extremely surprised if
that 5050 SNAP share continued going into next week, but it was
something that that sort of like was in the stats this week and
something to look at for going forward.
Yeah, for me, I would say. The the signal on.
That that I'm taking away is the contingent value of Charbonnet
is just still very strong, right?
Yeah, pretty, pretty fair. But again it it like I'm not
saying it's the most like like the outcome, but something to
watch for where they become 5050.
I that would be a worry for me. I don't want to see it happen.
I I don't think it'll happen. But again it's something that
happened that we're keeping an eye on.
So yeah, let's say let's take a look at our tight ends and I'm
going to assume this out just a little bit.
So we've got our tight end utilization and efficiency, and
these are our starter tight ends.
And with tight ends, the most important part is just that
they're running a route on a really high percentage of their
team's drop backs where they're not having the pass block a lot.
They're not their, their team isn't rotating them out with
another tight end or using other personnel that they're just on
the field running routes. And then the other part of it,
and This is why we look at targets for a run, is that
they're an important part of their team's offence.
So you can see Mark Andrews, he tops the red chair.
He has a targets per out run of 20% love the C dot and then he
has an A dot of 8.3, which isn't the highest but it's not your
sort of typical like Evan Ingram for yard, A dot at your David
and Joe Gu 2.7. It's it's a respectable A dot.
Yeah. I I.
Loved just the way. That the chart shook out this
week because to me it really crystallized what everyone is as
far as like where they fall in the Titan landscape and pecking
order. And so I'm just gonna kind of
rapid fire and go through some of my takeaways that I had here.
Like clearly number one is Travis Kelsey.
He's still got that elite roll, 31% targets per route run.
A dot of 7.4, so not the deepest A dot, but he's just so involved
that it doesn't matter. You can get there on the raw
volume, he still can deliver splash plays like obviously
elite, elite. Then you've got the more
consistent, more involved type of guys with lower A dots as far
as like you're still top strong, strong tight ends and that's Sam
Laporta and TJ Hawkinson, both with identical 24% targets per
route run. Both with very similar a dots of
6.9 and 6.8. And I think it's really cool to
see that because you can kind of see the way that their
production comes as well is that they have like that more
consistent floor where that high targets per route run and lower
a dot. Those guys are just involved
more often. It's way harder for them to
goose you. And then you move on to the
other guys that are still in that you know absolute top tier
echelon of tight ends of Mark Andrews and George Kittle where
they've got slightly lower but still very good targets for
route run of 20 and 19% deeper a dots than we're seeing on those
TJ Hawkinson, Sam Laporta, you know heavily involved but more
underneath type guys. And so these tight ends are the
ones where when Andrews and Kittle have gotten there this
season, they've done it in those big nuclear type splash weeks,
right where they're having a big spike week and delivering that.
And so I thought that was really cool just the way all these guys
shook out and then getting to that bottom.
So I think calling those five tight end, those are those are
you know very different than the rest of the tight ends that are
available. You know, for for you to play in
fantasy, it's those five. And then for me it's a clear
tier break and that next tier is Dallas Goddard, Evan Ingram and
Jake Ferguson who you can also see.
And for me it's that Evan Ingram is the clear like lead of that
tier with again a targets per route run that's going to be
more similar to like a Sam LaPorte, TJ Hawkinson.
You know, he's up at 22%, but he's also got that really low
eight out of four Point O and Goddard and Ferguson both 5.25
point 3A dot lower targets per route run of 17 and 18%
respectively. And so for me, Dallas Goddard is
just fancy Evan Ingram, but we were drafting Dallas Goddard,
you know, more more aggressively there.
And I I had called out Evan Ingram as, as someone in a a
Discord channel mentioned, oh, Evan Ingram was such a terrible
pick in Battle Royales and you know, bad pick in the dog books.
He's going 100% drafted and there were other guys going
undrafted and he's the same thing as all these other guys.
And for me, that was such a like critical misunderstanding of
what Evan Ingram is as far as his role where it's hey, Evan
Ingram has enough. Opportunity in a week where he
can deliver such a monster week compared to the guys that were
going undrafted. You know, like I I like Logan
Thomas. Let's just look at the points.
Yeah, Logan, Logan, Thomas, Dalton, Schultz.
I liked both of them for dog bowl this week, but to say that
these guys who are going you know Logan Thomas is undrafted
off and Dalton Schultz was drafted in most of them.
But to say like that Logan Thomas and Evan Ingram.
Are similar in their ceiling is just like you're missing a whole
chunk of the right tail for Evan Ingram and it it was born out
this week in a rainy game where I mean shoot maybe maybe could
have been even better for him if not for the weather.
But guy had what like 11 targets or something for 88 yards and he
didn't get in the end zone and underdogs only half PPR, so it
doesn't show up quite as much there.
But I thought. I thought Evan Ingram was just
such a smash demonstration of the role.
Yeah, exactly. But love I just.
I was so tickled when I looked at the chart of like, Oh my
gosh, it was like the clearest tears that you could possibly
imagine for these guys. So that was fun.
So why do you think of Kolka man because it it it strikes me as
being a definitely a positive surprise and and where 20%
targets per out run and he's he's running a good amount of
routes like that obviously you you you never.
Want to pay for a guy with that profile or so?
You never want to overpay because you're hitting you're
hitting the the mid range and the bottom can just fall out
there. But that that does seem
interesting to me where unless you have some of the guys that
you mentioned there, you probably should be starting Co
command. Yeah, for me, the Cole Comet
stuff. Is.
It's exactly what we saw with Cole Comet last season, where
it's like, did Cole Comet have a big splash player?
A touchdown? This was Cole Comet, you know,
inexplicably left wide open with no defender within 20 yards of
him. It's a good Cole Comet week, and
so it's the same thing we saw last season from Cole Comet, but
the fact that that stuff just keeps happening to Cole Comet.
Is it just an accident, right? Like there's something about
Cole Comet or the situation where it allows him to get, you
know, in a situation where there's no defender within 20
yards and he's scoring these big touchdowns.
So his average expected point this year through eight games
or, well, seven games for him is that 12.1.
And he's had like expected points of like 14.719 point 914
point, 116.7, like, yeah, that feels pretty good.
Like that feels like more than OK well he was wide open for a
big push down. So we had a good week.
But that feels like when when the offense is going like he's a
big part of it. Yeah, that's.
Anyway, that's that's. Certainly fair.
Yeah. I might have might have been
underselling him a little bit there.
I would the way I would frame it and like an actual take away I
would try to have there is like as far as.
You know, like if you got Cole Comet in your season long
league, like you're probably starting, you know, like you're
starting him I guess. But like in best fall going
forward, I feel like where Cole Comet was going this year in
like the one 40s, right right around there, like 12th, 12th
round or so, That is kind of the sweet spot to where you probably
don't feel quite as bad about taking tight ends because a miss
at that point in the draft doesn't hurt you so bad.
And then for me, I I think my biggest take away that I've got
going forward is the strategy that got really heavily touted
of, oh, just take three or four tight ends with all of your last
picks. And best of all isn't bad in the
sense that there were lots of undervalued tight ends going in
those last rounds. I don't think that is the best
strategy though to employ if you truly are taking them as your
last three or last four picks. Because what you're what you're
giving up there is you're giving up some of these dart throws
where yes this season they probably hit at a higher rate
than they typically will right. Where we get guys like Kyron
Williams and Puka and you know Jerome Ford with the injury and
you know Justice and Gus and all the you know Josh Reynolds like
Kendrick Bourne got a pour some out for Kendrick are you are you
saying that you do recommend the OR or you you you you don't you
don't advise against just Sami tight end rounds 15 through 18 I
what I'm saying is. Mixing in I like take your last
tight end in that spot, but I I personally think that if you're
a plugged in best ball drafter, you definitely have some dark
throw guys, right? You know, you know the guys that
you're interested in mixing in at the end of drafts and if
you're taking. Tight in, Tight in, Tight in For
your last three picks round 1616 through 18.
When are you taking your your true dart throw actually off the
board. Are you fading everyone in round
1415 to take your you know, oh, while Puka was going, you know
undrafted around 18, but I just faded everyone in round 15 took
Puka and then took all my tight ends.
What I think the correct way to play it is have your set of dart
throw guys that you want to mix in at the end.
Know how many of them you really want to have per team.
If you're really confident that you're you're strong with your
dart throws, maybe you are doing 2 per team and they're your 17th
and 18th round picks. Maybe you only got, you know,
risk tolerance for one. But I think using the late round
tight end as a risk tolerance slider is probably the proper
way to do it. And so you can mix a Colcomet in
there in the 12th or 13th round and say I got a better chance of
this guy having upside than a Hunter Henry, you know, like.
Cost adjusted Cole Comet versus Hunter Henry the correct place,
probably Hunter Henry in a vacuum when you're just looking
at the tight end position, but when you're looking at it
holistically from the point of your entire roster and what
you're giving up at other positions by only selecting
tight end in the last three rounds.
I do think that kind of thinking of the tight end in the last
rounds as your risk tolerance slider for taking a a swing and
a miss type dart throw player. Is is the way that I'm gonna do
it going forward? I I know that was a lot of
rambling. I hope I right that.
Well, yeah. My, my big thing is that the
the, the tight end, especially the tight ends that go rounds 15
through 18, they do tend to be sort of like lower upside
players as well. And what you'll get is one of
those guys will hit and they'll be a good pick, but you're
you're you're sort of looking. At the the and especially in
that range you're you're looking at players that aren't starting
to be starters and bad offenses or players that are like
probably backups and in in in in maybe slightly better offenses.
You know what I, I, I, I actually think we should move on
from this discussion. Maybe we're getting too far from
we're gonna get off in the weeds there.
Yeah. So yeah, we we we talked about
Cole Comet. Connor Connor Hayward.
I that's not a that's not a name.
I was expecting to see what is going on there.
So I believe that place for Pittsburgh?
Yeah, I was. Going to say take the manager
for that Friar Muth. Injury there.
Sorry, sorry. All the Darnell Washington
truthers but. 10.6 Expected points last week were prior to
that pretty low so he he is the starter in in Pittsburgh but not
a not a particularly valuable role and and and when it's not
for our mood it it it doesn't matter probably probably a
showdown consideration only really or or would you disagree.
No. Yeah, I'm not.
I did. See someone take Conor Hayward
in a dog bowl draft. And I was like, that's that was
a little off the board even for me.
But yeah not not a Click on Kicks.
Kyle Pitts right beside Jonnu Smith in in root Participation
that feels that that that's starting to feel pretty bad
where like some of the underlying metrics that we're
sort of happy with on Kyle Pitts and and and sort of pointed to
the breakout that if if they're getting if they're sliding back
a bit that that that's getting pretty alarming that that's like
OK not only you're scoring not not scoring points your
underlying stats are getting worse too yeah it's it's moving
in the other direction and. It's really, it doesn't make a
ton of sense to me, 'cause early the hypothesis was maybe Pitts
is still coming off the injury and he's not totally right.
But he was running more routes then when that was the theory.
And so I his route chair has gone down.
He's been the motive, essentially, yeah.
It feels tired to to. You know, do the shit on Arthur
Smith thing. But man, I I think that it's not
as hard. The game isn't quite as hard as
he thinks it is. He's like, I gotta get man if I
don't involve. Michael Pruitt or Van Jefferson,
teams are going to be able to predict what I can do.
To which I would say if you just run out shitty players all the
time, it doesn't matter if they know or don't know what you're
going to do, Your players can't make the requisite plays.
So, like, congratulations being unpredictably shitty?
I guess so. First four games of the year
called Pitts at an average route participation of 8089%.
Last four games 66%. So they've they've changed the
offense there. I I don't know if I I think you
you can feel pretty good a lot of people are there already.
I think you can feel pretty good about benching called pits and
and redraft stuff if you've got a a a real option there.
Maybe not if your if your options are are bad.
But if if if you've got, if you've got someone like Laporta
or even Cole Comet, you should be start.
You should probably be starting Cole Comet over Kyle Pitts, Kyle
Pitts or Logan Thomas. Oh my God.
And I think it's it's. Probably Logan Thomas.
Yeah it is if if if if healthy and and and he's you know he's
starting it's probably Logan Thomas.
Yeah. Which is just so gross.
It's just. Man, it's awful.
Yeah, I know. We we called he he's on the next
chart but we called what's his. I'm actually going to just move
us on to the next chart. We called Trey McBride.
I think you you you pointed him as a potential that top five
tight end rest of the year. He he's well on his way there
now. Trey.
Trey McBride's. Doing his best, Jake.
Ferguson impression You know, creeping his way onto the
starter chart. Obviously with this being the
rolling 4 weeks and Zach Ertz only recently being added to IR,
we're seeing Trey McBride's snaps not accurately reflecting
what what his real role is going forward here but 27% targets per
route run good A dot. I know some of it was garbage
time. It's been he's.
He's like king Garbage time. But guess what?
Garbage time points still count, baby.
So right. Yeah, it it it it, it.
It doesn't matter if that's where they get their points,
that's where they get their points.
And so another one that called. That Monkelmeyer now last week,
obviously the game last night was abysmal.
That like the Raiders just played awful overall.
But Michael Meyer, 79% Rd. share, so he's he like if that
continues he's a starter. He's the starting tight end.
We like Michael Meyer. So that that feels that feels
pretty strongly positive to me, even if the offense is bad.
I I would say for for all the positives.
Of his, his route share increasing.
I'm pulling up the Raiders schedule, I guess.
You know, Thankfully they they've got the Giants, Dolphins
and Vikings as three of their games that are coming up.
They get the Chiefs twice and they do have the Chargers.
So yeah, they've got they have four games where they're going
to go against pretty poor defenses.
They also get the Colts, so make that five really poor defenses
they'll get to play against. He's now a starting tight end.
When you were, you were. Getting him extremely cheap
people, we were dropping him. So you've either like got them
off waivers or you drafted them cheap Like I I I honestly think
when it's that cheap and you're talking about somebody becoming
a starter like the the match up it it becomes less important.
I don't I I think I don't know if I'd be drafted in in dog bowl
like you you're the sort of dog bowl.
I would not. I would not.
And it's for me. It's that the ceiling.
I 'cause I I need an undrafted tight end.
I almost feel like I need a little more.
I need them to separate or or not get gapped.
For them to be someone I'm really excited about in Dog Bowl
and for for Michael Meyer, I need, you know minimum a
touchdown and probably like 70 yards to to feel really good
about the play. And while the role looks right,
feels pretty possible. Yeah, yeah, for the role, you're
not wrong. I just.
I'm spooked. From what we saw from like, the
vibes are bad for the Raiders, man.
And and this might be the vibes, this might be overreacting like
I remember early in the year. People were like, what?
Idiots, Faded Devante Adams. 'Cause they're quarterback.
And now like the the same people are like, please trade Devante
Adams. Please trade Devante Adams.
Yeah, it's it's. But at the same time, I don't.
Want to overreact to like an island game either?
Where there, there have, there have been games where the
Raiders have been OK and I just maybe I'm I'm just scared that
I'm really scared that the train, like the train, might
just be a runaway train at this point.
And yeah, the horses have bolted, bolted the barn.
I don't. I don't know that they can get
like let's just say hypothetically the Raiders drop
a game to the Giants next week or they're they're on.
No, they're on auto buy. Raiders drop a game to the
Giants and then drop another game to the Raiders and then
they're heading in to Miami Follow followed by the Chiefs
and they get fucking butt whipped.
Devante Adams is just like sitting at home.
I'm just folded like, can't you man?
And I wasn't like full on team Faye.
Devante. I think I came like a little I'm
probably like field neutral on Devante, you know, right.
But I I wasn't fully bought into the oh, you know, the Raiders
are going to be so bad it's going to crush Devonta.
It's like, I don't know that it matters that much.
I'm like in my mind's eye. I'm seeing it pretty clear here
where after the Chiefs game when the Raiders lose in the first
ever 100 point loss where the Chiefs put up like 103 and the
Raiders like. Can't you just see this just
being an absolute all time meltdown type of team?
The vibes feel so bad that I think that's possible.
And and I I don't believe in McDaniels as as a as a coach.
Me neither. So I I I feel pretty.
Comfortable that or confident that he's a bad coach.
So. So for Michael Myers, they've
had good games to to turn into an actual.
Team to turn into. Something actionable for Michael
Myer if you're in a season long league where you got to choose
to start him? Is he someone where you think
it's safe to say you want to wait to play it until you see it
again? Yeah, yeah, like.
You need to be in a bad situation.
You need to be down bad to be starting Michael Myra tight
ends. He's a he's he's a better than a
desperation play. There's meat on the bone.
But you you you're feeling you're feeling pretty shaky
about starting him like you don't feel good about it.
Yeah. Any other backup tight ends we
need to spend time on here? No, I think.
I think we can move on. From the backup tight end.
Sharp. And so now you you you made us
put CD Lamb on the thumbnail. You're the he.
He has. He's risen from the dead.
Please, please tell us about CD Lamb.
This was what I thought was. I mean, I guess I'm a couple
weeks late, but I like, I, I called this out earlier in my
infamous mushing of the Cowboys week where I, you know, just
killed all Cowboys production and got them blown out by the
Cardinals. But I I I truly see this is
like, this is the hallmark of the Mike McCarthy offense.
I don't know how to do very much, but I do know to throw it
to the wide receiver one like a la Jordie Nelson, a la Devante
Adams. Like hey, does anyone else has
anyone tried this throw it to the good wide receiver thing
like and so coming off of a bye week perhaps doing a little self
scouting realizing like Oh yeah Michael Gallup and Brandon Cooks
suck like neither of these guys are doing anything for us and so
we just have to throw it to CD Lamb.
I I think that was that was what we were seeing here was the you
know, Michael barking. Just to to be in in in still in
actionable mode do you think CD Lamb going forward is he someone
where the the weekly floor is kind of low because he's
sporadically targeted or do you think this is a wake up call for
the Cowboys and you know he he he goes back to being like
heavily targeted and and he's like.
A a very strong fantasy producer every almost every game.
The rest of the way I would say the real and this is such a cop
out answer. I think the real truth lies
right in between those two where he might because of how poor the
offense has looked in a on certain occasions.
You've always got to keep that in the range for the Cowboys.
They they can come out and do Cowboys things and CD Lamb is
just going to hurt you that week.
But I also think that they are now aware there have been a
couple games now there have been two games where CD has just
gotten an absurd amount of targets.
We're we're, we're past the point of we like trying.
Trying to trying to tight ends as well, but you're a little bit
nervous about the offensive environment as a whole that like
maybe they have their stuck out weeks, yeah.
And they their schedule going forward is better than it has
been previously this season. So I'd say in general I'm, I'm
more bullish on CD going forward, but I don't want to you
know get get ahead of myself and get out over my skis.
OK, OK. So other things I.
Think we need to talk about is what are how are we playing this
sort of Viking situation now that now that Kirk Cousins is
out is like Justin Jefferson is he still?
Is he a trade candidate? Or is is is he a trade away and
do we still like Addison the the regarding Justin.
Yeah, regarding the Justin Jefferson trade away, for me
it's probably like the the way that I approach leagues where
you can trade is if you're if this is a thing where you care
about winning, if you care about winning in this league.
This is a market based game and the only way to truly know what
transactions you should be making is to know every price in
the market. And so the correct way to play
in a league where you can trade is you need to be talking to all
eleven other managers every single day testing the market on
every single player on your roster that you'd be willing to
move and every single player on their roster that they might be
willing to move. And that's like so crazy.
Yeah, so crazy over the top. But like if you want to win,
that is the correct way to play a market based game.
You need to know the market, right?
If it was $1,000,000 week. That would be like like or even
like $10,000 week. Yeah, if it's a if it's a thing
where the pride matters substantially to you or the
money matters substantially to you, you need to be grinding to
the fucking nub in the trade streets.
Because to to make this about Justin Jefferson.
I don't know if it's a good trade or not because it really
depends on how your league mates perceive him.
If they're willing to pay old Justin Jefferson prices and you
can get a true haul for him then yeah I love offloading the
uncertainty in that risk and and just you know in a straight
redraft no keeper league saying hey whatever this volatility is
for someone else to embrace. I'm going to take more known
commodities here and and try and take this value and convert it
into something that has a little less risk on it and then so just
to just to hone in like. And really and maybe drill in on
on the usability too. So obviously it's we're price
sensitive on Joseph and Jefferson.
I I I I think I think that makes sense, but then the I guess more
directly. How much are we docking the
Vikings pass catchers for this move from Kirk Cousins great
fantasy friendly quarterback, to to Dobbs, Which it's it's a hard
question. So what I would say is, let's,
and this is not a apples to apples thing at all, but let's
think about what the Cardinals looked like with Dobbs, right?
Like were they able to have usable weeks from guys?
Absolutely. The consistency was something
where it was you're a little less able to rely on it.
And So what I would say is, you know Jefferson's ceiling
certainly takes a hit because I I just don't think that, you
know, look at like Marquis Brown, this great, great wide
receiver, good NFL player. But just in that offense it it
was really hard for him to put up elite numbers and and
obviously Justin Jefferson is a better player than, than Marquis
Brown. But I I think that we'll see
Jefferson come down. I mean, maybe more in the, Gosh,
it feels really gross to to like, 'cause I I feel like I'm
picking an arbitrary point, a watermark of where he'll fall
to, but maybe more in line with like Aman, RA or Keenan going
forward. And it's just like the
combination of QB talent and wide receiver talent where those
wide receivers have better quarterbacks and and Justin
Jefferson's a better receiver talent.
It kind of they meet in the middle around there.
I I don't know I it's yeah that makes sense and so.
When when Kirk Cousins was initially injured, I, I, I sort
of remembered back to the last time he didn't play and the the
offense was awful. It was just God awful.
And I was like, oh, is that where we're going to see again?
And so I think. Dobbs is is a competent
quarterback. One thing that sort of like
makes me feel a little bit better about Dobbs is that he
did he he did sort of like I think for the expectations that
were fair for that offense going in.
He did help them exceed, he did help the offense play better.
Whereas, like I I feel like an an offense where the main
receiver is Hollywood Brown. And they're having to treat him
like an alpha and he's getting 25% target share and he's
getting like the alpha sort of targets where it's not sort of
deep shot stuff. And then you're talking about
Zach Eritz, you're talking about Michael Wilson and like, oh,
what about Ron Delmar? I I I feel like he is.
Sort of like a net out of the. Quarterback.
Or at least that. That's what my sense is based on
his play so far. And.
I think. You you have to consider it a a.
Clear downgrade just because Kirk Cousins is so helpful for
fantasy. But I, I and, and maybe this is,
this is me going on on a limb and and admittedly tough
question and I don't have all the answers but I do wonder if
things, if things for that offence are maybe not not as bad
as as they could have been. When Kurkosans went down.
Yeah, and like, maybe. Maybe he's like maybe Jefferson
is still in the Stefan Diggs range.
I think that's like you. That's like an optimistic
outlook, right? Because yeah, it is.
It is, you know, couldn't. Couldn't he?
Also be in the Devante Adams range.
You know where all of a sudden the offense goes from functional
to non The the offense wasn't good outside of the passing game
right. Like the run game wasn't very
good and and so I I don't know I'm.
But with with how uncertain both of us are, I think to take it
back to the are you trading Justin Jefferson thing?
It yeah, it it just really highlights to me where if you
can get anything close to what Justin Jefferson was worth, you
just do it because of the uncertain because like the
outcome the bad outcomes are so they're like you're now dead and
you know your league is you're it's all over for you.
And so it's just like let's try and offload some of that risk.
Because I I think one thing that we can say with relative
confidence is that it's not Justin Jefferson's not going to
come back from IR and just keep doing Justin Jefferson things
without Kirk Cousins right. Like, he'll still be good, but
it's not going to be the He's a lock for 1:50 every week, right?
Right. Yeah.
No way. Yeah.
Feel feel yucky talking about it.
Yeah, it's. It's.
Tough for sure and I I I accept that I'm still I I'm probably
more on on the optimistic side where like I I think maybe.
Dobbs is, is. Is.
A little bit better than maybe. There's a There's a chances.
League average but I accept that like given given sort of like
long term tinking and and he's a he's a long term journeyman that
that probably is a little bit optimistic based on a couple of
games for the for the Cardinals and in terms of how do you play
him in DFS, how do you play Jordan Addison in in DFS.
Yeah I it it, it probably is I guess situation where if
someone's like Oh no, I can't I can't play Jordan Addison and
Jordan Addison just falls all the way down and and he's among
the last drafted peak players like you're probably very
interested in Addison then but you you you do need a discount
from where he was going before. Yeah.
And in games like DFS or Battle Royale or Dog Bowl where there's
you know, the prizes are very top heavy and you're very
incentivized to take on risk and be contrarian against the
market. I I'm definitely the kind of guy
that likes to play things before I see them in those types of
contests. Oh man, I it would feel so hard
to click Jordan Addison. You know before, before you've
seen that it's gonna be OK for Jordan Addison.
You know with without Kirk Cousins, even in like let's say
the. Dog bowl where?
Where do you Do you think he should be undrafted or what
round do you think he should be in?
Let's see Are the are the Vikings let's let's pull this
are they on on the Yeah good question.
Hey, on the main slate we got Vikings, Falcons, Yeah, on the
main slate, Oh my goodness. Yeah, this is, I mean, like
potential slow pace game with it's 'cause I don't think Dobbs
is starting. Right, Dobbs isn't starting.
No, no, he's not the the the rookie, unknown rookie.
Is is there starting this week. So God, so look like yes, the if
Addison's going in now for me, I need him going undrafted.
Feel like he can't be going last round and owned in in 100% of
drafts. That takes a lot of the mustard
off the fastball, so to speak. I need him undrafted so I'm
getting him that you know, the field gets all, all the players
at 8 1/3% in the dog bowl. I need Jordan Addison to be 2%
you know 3% so that when I get a Jordan Addison hit.
You know instead of playing against 400 teams I'm playing
against 200 or even 100 teams. You know if I get a sub 1%
Jordan Addison and I'm playing against fifty teams I'm.
I'm cooking with some serious gas when he hits right.
Like you get a you get a Jordan Addison 2 touchdown game and
he's you know you got 50 Jordan Addison teams you're playing
against. That's the kind of spot that I'm
looking for and thank you you you you gave me enough courage
now to be willing to click him if he goes undrafted.
But I but just the how much it took me to get there and how
gross that felt I think is indicative of why the play
becomes good, right. It has to be just that gross and
bad feeling for it to become a good play and get to that.
Yeah. Especially especially with the
with the unknown. Rookie 'cause that it could,
especially this week. It could be awful, yeah, but.
But you can get and and this was why I I played a little bit of
Hopkins last week unfortunately didn't get enough of him.
I I told you this in our our group chat I mentioned for a lot
of my dart throws in the dog bowl that go undrafted, I put
them in a list. I throw them all in my queue.
I go to random.org and I randomize for.
However if I got three in there I randomized one to three and
whatever order they're in I take the number right.
And so I kept having Hopkins in there is Hopkins Kendrick,
Bourne couple other guys that I really liked that went undrafted
and every time random.org would select someone other than
Hopkins I was like dodged another Hopkins share.
I I was the my good fortune was smiling upon me there.
I didn't have to click the Andre Hopkins and so I only got I got
him on two teams with how the randomness gods let it shake out
and I was so sad thinking back to all those teams that just if
it had broke in another way so so this is to say that it can go
that way you know those rookie quarterbacks where it's entirely
unknown a lot of input volatility those are spots that
can be worth attacking provided that it sets up right and and
you're in those top heavy type of contests.
We we did spend a lot of time on just a couple receivers, but it
was a situation that I think was really important to parse the
other I've got two guys with three more guys total.
One is a team situation level thing and the other is elite,
elite regression candidate. I'm going to just blurb the
regression guy really quick because we've talked about him
before, but it's Chris Olave. I'm So what I was doing to start
this season with DFS was I will play Bruce Hall every week.
I don't care. I'm going to play him every week
because I know that eventually he's going to get there and I'm
just trying to be a week early, right?
I'm playing it before I see it. I'm at that point now with Chris
Olave for the rest of the season for DFS because I feel like he's
burned people enough and he's still getting crazy air yards
and the schedule is good. I'm I will play Chris Olave
every week until he makes me money for the rest of the
season. So that's my quick blurb there
for the team level thing. Very very, very concerned about
fantasy usefulness for Seahawks passing game because Jake Bobo
is the bane of your existence as a Seahawks you know, passing
game investor, If you have Tyler Lockett, you have DK Metcalf,
you have JSN. The bad news is that Jake Bobo
turned it into a four man party and I'm really concerned that
just for all of these guys they're you're just going to be
stuck in the spot where all four of them have their usefulness
reduced. So I'm a little scared there.
Am I overreacting to Jake Bobo? So are we overreacting to?
Bobo I guess the the big thing that it comes down to is, is
there enough? Because obviously he is a He's
sort of like a a. Part time.
Starter let's let's so I have to I.
I have to see what what actually his his root chair is.
And so we're. So, Jake?
Bobo Week 8. I'm sorry, you're fine.
I'll I'll vamp while you find the Jake Bobo stats.
Because for me, just from watching the games, what Jake
Bobo feels like to me is it reminds me of how that gross
tight end rotation happens in Seattle where it's like man,
there's points that happen to this tight end position.
But I just can't can't pin down who it is.
And Jake Bobo feels like an extension of that into the All
right I'm going. I'm going to read out the.
The Jake Bobo stats such such as they.
Are. So week week 6, his ride share
is 31%. Week 7 with BK maccuff it's 86%.
Week 8 BK maccuff back. It's 26% so.
I I think. I don't.
I don't think I I think. He's he's definitely much more
of a part time player now. Target Brett, run he, he he can
definitely get targets. It's like for example, actually
you know what he's getting. Like I I think.
It's a little bit overblown. Like ordered on week seven,
you're talking like 2 targets, 2 targets.
And he's also having games where he's not targeted at all.
So he wasn't targeted in week four.
Week 5 S the Jake Bobo touchdown vividness that I am, I'm falling
victim to this last week. You're saying don't worry about
it. The the Seahawks passing game
options are going to be fine. Jake Bobo is not going to come
steal your candy. Yeah, I I don't.
I don't think he's the boat the. Bogeyman.
Very good. All right.
He's the Halloween team. Let's hit the next wide receiver
chart here. We we one one thing.
Actually, I, I before we move on.
Pickens with Deontay back, it looks like, very much back to
his old role. His his targets per out run way
down. He did get the touchdown but
very little by the way yardage very little by the way of
targets and the anti Johnson just a volume machine once
again. So really disappointing there
for how good he looked with the the Deontay out but I do and
maybe it's still something to monitor going forward but.
I I I am pretty concerned with the collapse there after Deontay
coming back like sort of fully healthy that's that's a good
call I would for me it's more monitor put a pin in it and and
see but yeah right it's. One game.
Don't. Overreact.
Yeah, but pretty, pretty upsetting to see.
Yeah, OK. So we're moving on.
To the Tyreek Hill chart. And look at that.
DeAndre Hopkins, with just one game, has moved out of his, you
know, candidate for positive regression into guy who has just
had positive regression affect him, right?
And you know what's funny? I I think Gretch might have
pointed. Or was it?
I believe it was. Pat actually pointed this out
with respect to Lamar Jackson. Where these guys that are
candidates for positive regression, it's it doesn't
necessarily have to happen. Like slow and steady, like, oh,
and all of a sudden Lamar just, you know, chips it away.
He had six good games in a row and now he's back to where he
should be. It can happen in these big
explosive efficiency type games like we saw for Hopkins and we
saw for Lamar two weeks ago. And so that's why successfully
identifying these positive regression candidates can be so
helpful, because you know when it hits it, it can hit in such a
outsized way. And so can I bring to you two
very gross regression candidates here and you tell me which one
you prefer going forward? Christian Watson and T Higgins,
who both are right about 60% weighted targets per route run.
Higgins getting a few more, a little bit higher route share
than Christian Watson, Which do you prefer going forward?
I mean easily, easily. T Higgins because I think you
you did have concerns with Joe Burrow and the injury looks like
he he's fully healthy now and and and we've seen we've seen
the big T Higgins games where Jamar Chase is clearly the
preferred like he's the he is the first receiving option.
But you still get those big T Higgins explosion games, I
guess. On the other hand, Watson is a
speed demon and he's definitely had those games where he he's
just off to the races. But we were talking about
earlier where Packers not a not an attractive offense and the
long term data on Watson's not great.
He was not. He was.
Pretty mediocre college player, to be honest.
It took him to like his fifth year to really smash and yeah,
and. Situations like that.
The the good rookie year in in limited sample size.
The the the fact that not a good college player is really
important context. So talent better T Higgins.
Team better T Higgins. Quarterback better T Higgins.
Yep, that that makes sense to me, for the just to take one
quick detour on the Christian Watson thing for guys like that
where they didn't produce in college, but they're they're
these freak athletes. I think you can almost chalk
that up as more of a negative than a positive because it's
this guy had all of the physical gifts and he still couldn't beat
guys who you know eventually are going.
You're nagging Safeway groceries, right?
So just something to to look out for when you get prospects like
that. He he's certainly looking closer
to the Martavis Bryant career arc than or the Chase Claypool
career arc, right? JSN finally made it up to this
chart, getting getting a higher route share.
Still, he's still down in the The Milk Carton corner, but he's
trending in the right direction, so will be interesting to see if
he can fight off the Boba Monster and earn more
opportunity in the face of Locket and Metcalf.
Yeah, really not. Not a great game for him.
Last week, just four targets. He did get the touchdown, but
outside of the touchdown though, didn't.
Yeah, nothing. Nothing there.
His His route share was back. Down to 64%, not heavily
targeted, literally just a touchdown.
So yeah, that that that's a bit concerning and we'll be keeping
an eye on it next week for sure. Kendrick Bourne.
Viking funeral torn ACL Really sad.
He was. He was the only serviceable
receiver in that offense. So now you've got Pop Douglas or
Demario Douglas and and. I mean like if there was any way
for the Taekwon Truthers to get there.
Like the the path has been, the path has been cleared as clear
as it can get for Taekwon. So if Taekwon doesn't happen,
he's on draftable next. Yeah, all the Taekwon slappies.
Myself included should be shamed for their Taekwon bags, so
let's. Let's move on.
So love seeing Tank Dale Rashi Rice up here.
I don't. I don't know if there's.
Like those? Are guys we talked about before,
Is there anybody here we haven't talked about before sort of
standing out to you? No, I mean, I was interested in
Jalen Hyatt before we got the Taron Taylor rib injury, so he's
he's still just like a wait and see.
Jalen Hyatt's like, it seems like the classic kind of rookie
that does something randomly in the fantasy playoff.
You know, catches 2 long touchdowns for 22 points or
something crazy like that in fantasy playoffs and everything
goes crazy over it, right? But no.
Otherwise, I mean like gosh, is there, is there anyone on this
chart where you're even like outside of like those top
quadrant guys like I mean even Nick Westbrook Akini is not even
rosterable, but like Jaden Reed, Rashi Rice, Curtis, Samuel, Tank
Dell, is there anyone else, I mean, we talked about Demario
Douglas very briefly that he, he's probably the best candidate
to, you know, maybe vacuum up a little bit of the opportunity
from Kendrick Bourne. No, these are all gross, aren't
they? Yeah.
None. None of it.
You're gross. Can't.
Can't roster any of them, right? Yeah, I I mean, we've had our
graduates from the. Chart I think Rashi Rice is is
trending to be a graduate from the chart.
Tank 10% is Zay Jones when? Healthy should be but I I I
think we've sort of like Barry injuries we've sort of.
Like fan the players who are playing well enough to become
starters and and everyone else is sort of a marginal player. 22
quick points. We did see Quentin Johnston
finally get targets and and like production in an NFL game, so
that was like very small signs of life for Quentin Johnson.
He doesn't get like the full zombie resurrection, rise from
the dead like our our thumbnail cover boy CD Lamb did.
But like, if anything Quinton Johnston is scratching from
inside the coffin. You know you can hear the
fingernails on the on the coffin.
Not bad. It's the.
Yards and no Cliff sounds obviously but it it did require
referred to the routes it required Josh Palmer to re
aggravate his knee for that to happen but right Yeah yeah.
And then the last guy, purely contingent unfortunately.
The last guy I had Anything noteworthy on on this chart was
Curtis Samuel and I'm looking at this more as a like an offensive
trend slash signal to pay attention to.
So Samuel left the game with injury.
He was questionable coming into the week and I was looking at
that as maybe this is a week where Logan Thomas gets more
involved as the Eagles have you know pretty ferocious pass rush.
The last time the commander saw the Eagles, they gave up a ton
of sacks and with Samuel not able to operate in, you know
that shorter gadgety kind of role where he's getting he's
been getting some of those type of targets maybe would see Logan
Thomas fill in for that. When Curtis Samuel was actually
ruled out we saw Jahan Dotson finally get some more
opportunity. We also saw gosh, what's dusty
old. He was a Bill's receiver last.
Jameson Crowder saw Jameson Crowder have a game of it.
And so for me, what I see this as is with the absurd amount of
pass volume that Washington team is able to generate and I I
could see that number staying high and potentially even
increasing with their trades to get rid of two defensive pieces
here at the deadline. Their defense should be worse.
Their offense has shown they're down to pass and so I would say
when Curtis Samuel is in and fully healthy, you're less
excited about, you know basically anyone other than
Terry Mclaurin. But when Curtis Samuel is out,
there's just so much opportunity there that that's when you get
guys like Dotson being more attractive potentially.
That was kind of my, my take away.
I think that might be a little too just jumping to conclusions
after one week or well, you you get.
Somebody who gets tired out of the game then.
Obviously it has to condense, and that's sort of what you need
for Datsun, but doesn't still doesn't.
Feel great for Datsun. That like, that's what's
blocking him. Curtis Samuel.
But obviously good to. Know that there is some.
There is some potential upside there still for Datsun Assad.
His note here on Bateman. I I I actually I'm looking at
the the data here I I can't agree with this where yes he he
had like a 63% route share which is actually pretty good like
he's he's he's gone back to to being sort of like a quasi
starter but he only had 10% targets for our run and. 2
targets. A good amount of route routes on
on 20 routes. So he did.
I guess he got he did well with the two targets but I I don't
know I I. I feel like.
The Unless there is more going on with the injury than we know
and and and maybe there is that unless Bateman has some injury
that he can suddenly kick. The the dot has just been
consistently dot he he's not been good and I'm I'm I'm sort
of ready to bury Bateman. Yeah I I am as well.
For me, the Bateman stuff is is For me as a a heavy Bateman
drafter, it's mostly Copium at this point.
I'm just very glad that I diversified and I picked, say,
flowers some of the times when I wanted to click Bateman and
that's my saving grace that I kept clicking both of them.
So for every Bateman, there's a flowers.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. So I I, I think we're done then,
right? I I think that does it.
I think that wraps up our our Halloween episode.
We had a positive regression to the mean.
On. On runtime for.
Yeah, absolutely. But maybe, I mean, maybe we can,
you know, trend closer to that two hour mark going forward.
We'll we'll see next week. But for those of you that made
it through the entire 2 1/4 hours here with us, we
appreciate you and and your viewership.
Hope you found some actionable takeaways from today and until
next Tuesday at 5:00. Good luck this week everyone and
we will see you then. See you next week, everyone.