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Today on ADP Chasing, we are, 
for the first time in the show's

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history, bringing in a guest 
that has watched more than a 

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single snap of football. 
It is, of course, the perceptor 

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of receptions, the king of 
fantasy at Yahoo Sports, Matt 

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Harmon. 
We're going to help you identify

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edges in the best ball market at
wide receiver in a year where 

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prices are higher than ever. 
This is ADP chasing. 

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Let's go. 
Pat Fryer helmo this. 

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Is what this is what I'm hot 
Anita hand. 

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Job. 
Fix. 

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Your side. 
And also play chase. 

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You can't handle the heat. 
It looks like we're finally at 

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this point here, right? 
How's everybody doing, Matt, 

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Thanks for joining us. 
You have a good 4th of July 

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holiday week. 
Oh yeah, man, I was off for the 

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first time, you know, and 
forever took the full week off 

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to not think about Both work 
well reception, perception and 

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Yahoo combined. 
And also moving across the 

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country didn't think about 
either those things for a week 

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and now it's like smacking me in
the face being back today. 

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So yeah, that's the post post 
vacation anxiety slapping me in 

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the face all at once. 
But. 

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I'm happy to not think about at 
least the anxiety part here for 

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the next next hour or so with 
you guys, so I appreciate you 

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guys having me way too. 
Kind of an introduction and I'm 

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excited to chop it up today. 
Awesome. 

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Happy to have you. 
Very excited to talk about 

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Deontay Johnson and Brandon and 
I, You look great. 

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Well, we've been and yeah, we've
been doing a lot of thinking 

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about, thinking about reception,
perception and. 

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ESPN Open Score and like how to 
leverage these things to draft 

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teams, so I'm looking forward to
a robust conversation. 

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Yeah, should be awesome. 
Yeah. 

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Before we get started, I think 
just to give the listeners a 

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heads up, we're basically gonna 
be looking through just wide 

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receiver ADP today, a little bit
different from the normal show 

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outline and talking through 
Matt's reception perception data

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and maybe trying to help find 
edges at ADP. 

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But before we go into that, 
Matt, if you want to just give 

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like our listeners or maybe I'm 
sure most of our listeners are 

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familiar with you, but just give
people a quick overview of what 

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you do at reception, perception,
sort of rough outline of your 

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process, that kind of thing, 
just to help people kind of get 

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grounded and what we're gonna be
talking about. 

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Yeah, I think all of us that 
play fantasy or like watch the 

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NFL on a really intense basis, 
we all kind of inherently 

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understand that wide receiver 
production is, I mean it's. 

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One of the most, I would say 
they're like the position is 

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overall the most dependent on 
like outside variables to go 

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right in order to accrue 
production. 

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I think we all kind of 
understand that basically any 

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yards target, anything that, 
anything, any metric that 

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involves that stuff is taking 
the variable, the quarterback, 

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the environment, the offensive 
play caller, you know like you 

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need the offensive line to block
the play correctly. 

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So my goal almost a decade now 
in that. 

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It seems crazy to say that I've 
been doing reception perception 

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for for almost about 10 years 
here. 

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It's been to try as best 
possible to isolate wide 

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receivers from outside 
variables. 

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So what I do is over an 8 game 
sample for NFL players and 

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college players is go in and 
chart like you said more than a 

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single snap chart every single 
route that they run, every 

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single snap where they line up. 
Cuz I think that's where the 

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discussion has to start is you 
know we we talked about like 

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outside receivers and slot 
receivers a lot and fantasy but.

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When you really want to 
breakdown exactly like what 

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these guys are doing is a huge 
difference between like what the

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X receiver and what the flanker 
receivers asked to do. 

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So that's where everything 
starts basically. 

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And then from there it's how 
often do they run each route, 

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how often do they get open on 
each route type, how often are 

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they getting open against manned
zone press coverage. 

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So really, again, trying to the 
goal with reception perception 

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is to isolate the player as much
as possible from outside 

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variables and then again, really
try to understand what bucket 

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they fit in at the position. 
And really then of course, just 

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like how good are they, right, 
Because we like to think that 

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volume finds or talent finds 
volume, opportunity finds 

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talent. 
So really, I think it's just the

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starting point of how you've got
to understand the receivers, 

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you've got to watch them play 
and then everything else comes 

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from there. 
Yeah, two things I really like 

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about what you're adding is 
what's happening when receivers 

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aren't targeted. 
That's something that for like a

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long time you have like no real 
information on. 

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And then some. 
I've been really enjoying 

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digging into the numbers. 
This offseason is just stuff 

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like, you know, you mentioned 
the flanker, the exposition 

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stuff. 
You track, how often the guys 

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are lining up on the line of 
scrimmage, which I haven't seen 

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elsewhere. 
I think that's pretty cool too. 

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Yeah, that to me it's funny like
there are statements I said 

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about, you know the overall, 
like well not the overall, but 

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like the success rate versus 
man's own press coverage 

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statements even in reception 
perception and I wouldn't have 

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said like. 
I wouldn't say not say now, but 

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like 8 years ago I was like Oh 
yeah, you know, because this 

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guy's bad and man coverage he's 
bad. 

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But if these guys are really 
good against, the example I was 

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come back to is like Juju in his
early career. 

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I think like reception 
perception had him pretty 

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pegged. 
And this is a guy that's a good 

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player because he's good against
zone coverage, but he's got 

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clear weak points like against 
man and press, and I think 

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that's put like a cap ceiling on
who he's become. 

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Later in his career and like, I 
don't think he's a bad player. 

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I just think he was a little 
overrated earlier. 

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But the fact that he lines up 
off the line, the fact that he 

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was lining up a lot in slot in 
Pittsburgh and elsewhere, it 

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gets him away from those 
coverages that he's not really 

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good against. 
So like you said, like I think 

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that's really an important piece
of the conversation that does 

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get kind of lost because. 
What these guys are doing when 

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they're running that X receiver 
route tree like a true vertical 

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X receiver, they might as well 
be playing like a different 

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position. 
Like David should talk about IU.

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That's a great example of like 
what IU is doing verse like what

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Devo Samuels doing. 
It's almost might as well be 

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different positions even though 
they're both labeled WR and 

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that's kind of an extreme 
example CUZ DeVos does backfield

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stuff. 
But yeah, I think it's important

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to kind of always start the 
conversation there. 

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I think the Juju example is 
interesting too, right? 

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Because. 
There was so much talk, and it's

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always hard in fantasy to like 
separate the noise from the 

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signal, right? 
And there was so much talk that 

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Juju's just a product of Antonio
Brown taking away coverage. 

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He's just, he's a slot guy. 
But at the time, if you're just 

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looking at Juju's like raw 
stats, his yardage, his catches,

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and you don't look at where he's
lining up in the field, you 

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think he's on the path to be. 
Dynasty wide receiver one, 

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right. 
Like a lot of people had him 

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ranked super high after that, 
right? 

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So I think like you said, 
understanding how a player win 

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wins is really important. 
And understanding that Juju 

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create at what he does, or at 
least back then was, you know, 

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really elite at what he did as a
slot, slot zone beater. 

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But yeah, understand that cuz 
when you try to project him into

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that full X wide receiver role, 
it takes a little bit of extra, 

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yeah, skill to to get there. 
So I think that's really an 

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interesting one. 
Matt can you can you just kind 

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of like give people a quick 
overview of how you see like the

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the two outside positions that 
the the flanker and the ex cuz I

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mean I think like I don't really
get it fully like I when I went 

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to look like I remember Michael 
Pittman really jumped out to me 

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is like oh I guess he's not the 
ex cuz he's like a big wide 

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receiver. 
I just like figured he was. 

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Well, these are these are 
designations. 

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These are it depends on the 
offense, too. 

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Like, not every offense is going
to have a flanker because it's a

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designation from Dan Coryell's 
offense from the 1970s that, 

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like most of the modern passing 
game is built out of. 

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But like, for example, Cliff 
Kingsbury's playbook, they 

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probably would not have had a 
flanker, They would have had an 

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X&AY and a slot, and no one 
would have been designated the 

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flanker because the route 
concepts are different. 

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So it it sort of depends on. 
Who's calling the plays and what

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verbiage they're using? 
100% yeah I mean kind of 

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verbiage is different across 
different offenses, but just 

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from like a very basic high 
level standpoint like that X 

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receiver is going to be like 
tethered at the line of 

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scrimmage. 
He's not going to be moving 

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around pre snap. 
Like a good examples of Robert 

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Woods with the with the Los 
Angeles Rams like he was always 

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kind of their pre snap motion 
guy cuz he was the off ball 

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flanker and then. 
Like Brandon Cooks is that vert?

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You typically want your X 
receiver to be somebody who's 

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gonna stress the defense out, 
which is kind of why like Alec 

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Pierce is the X receiver in in 
in Indianapolis. 

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Just to come back to your 
Michael Pittman example, and 

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they love to move Pittman around
prior to the snap, you know, 

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kind of get him on some quicker 
hitting routes. 

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So you want your flanker. 
Like, it's great if your flanker

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is a big time. 
Man press beater too like that, 

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that's awesome. 
But you definitely want your Z 

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receiver, your flanker receiver 
to be good in the short to 

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intermediate areas and and it's 
OK if he's more of a zone beater

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than a man beater. 
And then obviously again the the

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flanker position allows them to 
be moved around prior to the 

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snap and they don't necessarily 
have to And it it just depends 

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like Davis said on different 
offenses and who your players 

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are. 
Obviously we want coaches that 

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are going to coach to the 
personnel on the offense but you

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know the more like. 
I I think these, the Shanahan 

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offense is a great one that they
do typically have that when that

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offense is functioning at its 
best, they have like a Julio 

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Jones and Andre Johnson, like 
that big prototypical X 

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receiver. 
Iuka's kind of playing that role

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now, so that's kind of just a 
little bit of a high level. 

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The main thing is, are they on 
the line of scrimmage or are 

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they not. 
That's kind of the biggest 

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difference between X and and and
flanker and then you can kind of

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get it over around from there. 
Gotcha. 

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So just. 
Based on your data here, like 

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Terry Mclaurin, Mike Evans, DK 
Metcalf are kind of prototypical

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yes receivers. 
Yeah, yeah. 

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And and it's funny because we 
definitely do profile players 

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based on size. 
You know, everybody does it. 

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I I definitely think like, oh, 
you want that X receiver to be 

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built like a Mike Evans like 
that. 

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But then yeah, Terry Mclaurin, 
he's not, not like the smallest 

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guy in the world, but he's 
definitely like a prototypical X

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receiver that's not moving 
around prior to Snap and those 

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guys, definitely. 
Have the, I would say you know 

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this is subjectively, but I 
think based on the routes that 

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they run, the coverages that 
they face like again, they're 

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going to run into more tight 
physical press man coverage. 

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They're not going to have the 
the benefit of working the 

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sideline or they're going to be 
tighter to the sideline than 

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these other players are. 
I think it's the hardest 

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position of the three to play. 
So you know when you see a guy 

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like a rookie like Drake London 
that comes in and and runs out 

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as that pure X receiver and and 
plays it in my opinion extremely

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well. 
I think that, like, that's a 

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really good signal all in of 
itself. 

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Yeah that's and and I mean these
are these discrepancies are like

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very useful I think in season, 
you know I think like the 

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positional stuff because you 
want to know who replaces for 

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injury and and stuff like that. 
But you know another key is 

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people do miss on this with 
rookies. 

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I think a pretty obvious example
is like Devonta Smith assuming. 

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So and a lot they actually like 
just thinking like these guys 

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are small fast like they can 
only you know if you're if 

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00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:39,480
you're five, 10178 pounds is 
like oh you're a slot wide 

226
00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:43,160
receiver and the the paradigm 
has just changed and in the NFL 

227
00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:45,160
now like that just doesn't have 
to be true anymore. 

228
00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:47,600
I love that you brought up 
Devonta Smith because that was 

229
00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:49,600
one of the most, like, 
interesting things to me going 

230
00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:53,180
into last season because. 
I was so and this is how you 

231
00:11:53,180 --> 00:11:56,660
know I have you know no life is 
like I was so fascinated as the 

232
00:11:57,060 --> 00:11:59,300
where were these receivers in 
Philly going to line up. 

233
00:11:59,340 --> 00:12:01,900
You know like who was going to 
be the X receiver verse who was 

234
00:12:01,900 --> 00:12:05,020
going to kind of be that that 
priest, that motion guy flanker,

235
00:12:05,020 --> 00:12:07,540
you know moving the slot because
like you mentioned Davis. 

236
00:12:07,540 --> 00:12:12,180
Like we had multiple years of 
evidence that both as obviously 

237
00:12:12,180 --> 00:12:14,620
a collegiate player he won the 
Heisen but as a rookie too of 

238
00:12:14,620 --> 00:12:17,840
Devonta Smith being. 
Excellent against press 

239
00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:20,760
coverage, excellent against man 
coverage and doing it from a 

240
00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:24,080
true exposition. 
But you know A J. 

241
00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:28,960
Brown in 2020 and 2020? 
Well, really, 2019 and 2020 was 

242
00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:32,720
an awesome X receiver for the 
Tennessee Titans. 

243
00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:33,920
Like he had run out of that 
position. 

244
00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:38,440
But then you saw him kind of in 
21 accommodate Julio Jones, 

245
00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:41,200
who's been one of the best X 
receivers you know of all time, 

246
00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,720
and play as more of a flanker, 
play more in the slot that year.

247
00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:46,520
And I was interested to see like
was. 

248
00:12:47,250 --> 00:12:51,010
The Eagles going to kind of put 
a J Brown in that spot where 

249
00:12:51,010 --> 00:12:52,530
they going to like move Devon 
Smith around. 

250
00:12:52,530 --> 00:12:54,610
But then what you saw them do 
last year was, yeah, Smith 

251
00:12:54,610 --> 00:12:56,170
basically runs out as the X 
receiver. 

252
00:12:56,690 --> 00:12:58,610
And it's incredible in that role
too, by the way, which I think 

253
00:12:58,610 --> 00:13:01,570
is a real credit to him. 
But then also then it gives them

254
00:13:01,570 --> 00:13:04,330
sort of matchup flexibility with
a J Brown to move him around the

255
00:13:04,330 --> 00:13:06,450
field. 
That's nuts to me, that Devons 

256
00:13:06,530 --> 00:13:09,130
like, just from my very 
rudimentary understanding of 

257
00:13:09,130 --> 00:13:11,770
like, like I when I think 
Crystal Lava Mike flanker. 

258
00:13:12,150 --> 00:13:14,110
And I think AJ Brown's like X, 
I'm like okay. 

259
00:13:14,150 --> 00:13:16,310
Obviously AJ Brown's the XI. 
Don't even need to check like 

260
00:13:16,310 --> 00:13:20,230
what DuPont dismiss the X. 
That doesn't jive with kind of 

261
00:13:20,230 --> 00:13:23,150
my the basic understanding. 
Cuz I think, and I mean Matt, 

262
00:13:23,150 --> 00:13:27,630
you can speak better to this 
than me, but the things that it 

263
00:13:27,630 --> 00:13:29,950
takes to be a successful X 
receiver aren't just size. 

264
00:13:29,950 --> 00:13:32,750
And I think so many times we 
think of just like big guy he 

265
00:13:32,750 --> 00:13:35,430
can beat press coverage but the 
nuanced. 

266
00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:39,400
Yeah, the nuance. 
Aspects of like getting off the 

267
00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:41,720
line of scrimmage, like beating 
that initial press coverage, 

268
00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:45,240
sort of whatever, sidestepping 
all that stuff like Devonta 

269
00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:47,920
Smith is so technical and good 
at the very nuanced things, even

270
00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:52,040
though he's like all of our 
sizes, basically, which is just 

271
00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:56,400
truly incredible, so. 
How different are these 

272
00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:59,200
positions in terms of cuz like 
one thing that strikes me out 

273
00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:02,610
this is like. 
Can I use this to predict snaps?

274
00:14:02,610 --> 00:14:04,970
Like, you know, the Giants wide 
receivers are one where I was 

275
00:14:04,970 --> 00:14:07,370
like, oh, Isaiah Hodgins lining 
up on the line of scrimmage a 

276
00:14:07,370 --> 00:14:09,330
lot. 
You know, maybe that gives him 

277
00:14:09,330 --> 00:14:12,810
an advantage as we try to figure
out where all these guys are 

278
00:14:12,810 --> 00:14:14,090
going to go. 
Maybe he actually has more of a 

279
00:14:14,090 --> 00:14:18,850
lead for the X snaps. 
And it's not all just there's 

280
00:14:18,850 --> 00:14:21,610
three wide receiver spots or 
there's two outside wide 

281
00:14:21,610 --> 00:14:23,290
receiver spots. 
Who's going to play outside? 

282
00:14:23,770 --> 00:14:27,410
Like, how different are these 
responsibilities and and duties?

283
00:14:28,580 --> 00:14:31,180
Is it to the point where we can 
say, like, look, I mean, this 

284
00:14:31,180 --> 00:14:34,340
guy's shown the ability to line 
up on the line of scrimmage play

285
00:14:34,340 --> 00:14:36,780
X that gives them an advantage 
over the other guys? 

286
00:14:37,740 --> 00:14:40,340
I think it's a huge part of it 
and the Giants are a great 

287
00:14:40,340 --> 00:14:43,020
example cuz like, let me tell 
you what, you're not running out

288
00:14:43,100 --> 00:14:46,660
A3 receiver set of Paris 
Campbell, Wandell Robinson and 

289
00:14:46,660 --> 00:14:48,100
Sterling Shepard. 
And obviously, like there's 

290
00:14:48,100 --> 00:14:50,860
injury and you know, Sterling is
one of the greatest reception 

291
00:14:50,860 --> 00:14:52,300
perception, what ifs of all 
time. 

292
00:14:52,300 --> 00:14:55,500
So all respect intended to 
Sterling Shepard, you know, 

293
00:14:55,500 --> 00:14:57,220
beyond the injury problems 
you're gonna have with those 

294
00:14:57,220 --> 00:14:57,860
guys. 
But yeah, like. 

295
00:14:58,340 --> 00:15:00,180
You're not asking Paris Campbell
to play X receiver. 

296
00:15:00,180 --> 00:15:02,540
You're not asking Sterling 
Shepherd, when he's healthy, to 

297
00:15:02,540 --> 00:15:04,180
play X receiver. 
And you're definitely not asking

298
00:15:04,180 --> 00:15:06,820
Wandell Robinson to do it and 
even like stretching those guys 

299
00:15:06,820 --> 00:15:08,980
into some some of those guys, 
you know, Sterling Shepherd 

300
00:15:08,980 --> 00:15:10,780
notwithstanding, like, I don't 
really think you're asking 

301
00:15:10,780 --> 00:15:13,500
Wandell Robinson or even Paris 
Campbell. 

302
00:15:13,700 --> 00:15:16,260
Maybe Paris Campbell can play 
like a flanker position. 

303
00:15:16,260 --> 00:15:18,900
I actually think he might be 
better than like the kind of 

304
00:15:18,900 --> 00:15:21,900
Bunny hop slot receiver stuff 
he's done at different times in 

305
00:15:21,900 --> 00:15:23,700
Indianapolis. 
He might be decent at that. 

306
00:15:23,700 --> 00:15:25,730
But yeah, I think. 
You can definitely use it to 

307
00:15:25,730 --> 00:15:27,610
predict like who these guys are 
going to, who's going to line up

308
00:15:27,610 --> 00:15:31,770
in 3 receiver set especially. 
Nobody likes when you you talk 

309
00:15:31,770 --> 00:15:35,290
about this either but like that 
X receivers probably got to be a

310
00:15:35,290 --> 00:15:37,090
pretty good blocker too. 
Like they're not. 

311
00:15:37,090 --> 00:15:39,290
They can't be like a stone zero 
in the run game. 

312
00:15:39,290 --> 00:15:43,050
And I think that's where we 
definitely get into problems 

313
00:15:43,050 --> 00:15:47,010
when we profile guys as like 
route running X receivers you 

314
00:15:47,010 --> 00:15:49,850
know versus like just big 
physical X receivers and 

315
00:15:49,850 --> 00:15:51,490
everything like that. 
Like you said, these smaller 

316
00:15:51,490 --> 00:15:54,410
guys can definitely run out 
there at that position but. 

317
00:15:55,290 --> 00:15:57,490
You want your outside receivers 
to offer you something in the 

318
00:15:57,490 --> 00:16:00,290
run game and two receiver sets. 
Again, I use a great example of 

319
00:16:00,290 --> 00:16:01,970
that. 
That like, I think part of what 

320
00:16:01,970 --> 00:16:04,290
got him out of the doghouse a 
couple years ago was he was like

321
00:16:04,290 --> 00:16:05,970
blocking his ass off in the run 
game. 

322
00:16:05,970 --> 00:16:08,490
I think that makes him a good 
fit at that X receiver position 

323
00:16:08,490 --> 00:16:10,010
too. 
So somebody with a little more 

324
00:16:10,010 --> 00:16:12,970
size there in Isaiah Hodgins 
might provide them something 

325
00:16:12,970 --> 00:16:14,490
different than what these other 
guys do. 

326
00:16:15,130 --> 00:16:17,810
Oh, we normally spend about 30 
minutes per show talking about 

327
00:16:17,810 --> 00:16:22,650
Isaiah Hodgins, So I'm glad I'm.
Glad we still have 2525 more. 

328
00:16:22,650 --> 00:16:26,570
Don't worry, we'll get to it. 
Sorry, something like this is a 

329
00:16:26,730 --> 00:16:27,530
bit. 
Yeah, yeah. 

330
00:16:29,330 --> 00:16:31,490
Well, one thing I was just 
curious about, like sometimes, 

331
00:16:31,490 --> 00:16:35,370
like, so Deontay Johnson and 
George Pickens both lined up on 

332
00:16:35,370 --> 00:16:38,850
the line of scrimmage a lot. 
So, like, what's that's also 

333
00:16:38,850 --> 00:16:41,050
kind of goes against, like, what
I thought, Like there's one guy 

334
00:16:41,050 --> 00:16:42,050
who lines up on the line of 
scrimmage. 

335
00:16:42,050 --> 00:16:43,930
One guy who's off the line of 
scrimmage is the flanker. 

336
00:16:44,530 --> 00:16:47,690
How how is it that you know 
those two guys must both be on 

337
00:16:47,690 --> 00:16:49,370
certain plays lining up on the 
line of scrimmage? 

338
00:16:50,590 --> 00:16:53,110
At some points you you do get a 
play call. 

339
00:16:53,110 --> 00:16:55,150
I mean Matt Canada. 
Matt Canada does some weird 

340
00:16:55,150 --> 00:16:56,910
offenses stuff. 
It's not really one of my 

341
00:16:56,910 --> 00:16:59,110
favorite offenses in the entire 
NFL for sure. 

342
00:16:59,110 --> 00:17:02,390
But you had also those guys can 
at different times. 

343
00:17:02,390 --> 00:17:05,390
You know one guy can be the X 
receiver on the play and then 

344
00:17:05,390 --> 00:17:07,310
the other guy can be the X 
receiver on a different play. 

345
00:17:07,310 --> 00:17:10,069
I think they actually have a 
pretty interesting combo there 

346
00:17:10,069 --> 00:17:12,270
and that George Pickens is sort 
of that like prototypical 

347
00:17:12,270 --> 00:17:14,230
throwback X receiver, a guy 
that's. 

348
00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:18,079
Not necessarily. 
I would say a great separator, 

349
00:17:18,079 --> 00:17:20,119
but he is combative at the catch
point. 

350
00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,240
He does kind of profiles more of
that player. 

351
00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:26,400
I wouldn't say he's, I wouldn't 
say he's like going to you know,

352
00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:28,280
he can be kind of along. 
I just a guy talk about him like

353
00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:31,120
every one of my shows, like the 
Devante Parker axis of X 

354
00:17:31,120 --> 00:17:33,280
receiver. 
Never a great separator, but 

355
00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:34,840
really good in contested 
situations. 

356
00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:36,440
I think he kind of fits into 
that bucket. 

357
00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:39,440
And then Deonte just been such a
good separator and such a good 

358
00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:42,880
routerunner despite being, you 
know, not an A+ athlete and 

359
00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,830
being a smaller guy. 
He and he's definitely a mistake

360
00:17:45,830 --> 00:17:48,030
prone player. 
You know that, no doubt about 

361
00:17:48,030 --> 00:17:49,350
that. 
But like he can be. 

362
00:17:49,350 --> 00:17:52,390
So yeah, he does get open and he
can do that at the X receiver 

363
00:17:52,390 --> 00:17:53,590
position. 
So that gives him some 

364
00:17:53,590 --> 00:17:56,870
flexibility to like, all right, 
we can start to take some of the

365
00:17:56,870 --> 00:18:00,430
off the line because also 
Deontay's like snaps on the line

366
00:18:00,790 --> 00:18:03,550
have gone down last year 
compared to the year prior, if 

367
00:18:03,550 --> 00:18:05,470
I'm not mistaken. 
So like a lot of that is they 

368
00:18:05,470 --> 00:18:08,470
had a guy this year that could 
be or this past year that could 

369
00:18:08,470 --> 00:18:11,030
do some of that X receiver 
stuff, but they also do some you

370
00:18:11,030 --> 00:18:13,070
know, untraditional things 
where. 

371
00:18:13,590 --> 00:18:15,670
You'll get both those outside 
receivers on the line of 

372
00:18:15,670 --> 00:18:17,950
scrimmage, or you'll get the 
receiver in the slot on the line

373
00:18:17,950 --> 00:18:20,150
of scrimmage, and then you know 
the flankers off the ball or the

374
00:18:20,150 --> 00:18:21,990
tight ends off the ball. 
So they do a lot of that with 

375
00:18:21,990 --> 00:18:24,110
Pat fire move to where he's off 
the ball as well. 

376
00:18:24,110 --> 00:18:27,070
That's interesting, interesting.
Cool. 

377
00:18:27,190 --> 00:18:29,750
Well, it's all interesting until
you realize that Alan Robinson 

378
00:18:29,750 --> 00:18:32,910
is getting 97 targets this year 
and there's nothing any of us 

379
00:18:32,990 --> 00:18:35,470
can do. 
I I could. 

380
00:18:35,510 --> 00:18:37,990
There's if I really if you get 
enough beers in me, I could 

381
00:18:37,990 --> 00:18:40,620
like, fall. 
Ass backwards into like Alan 

382
00:18:40,620 --> 00:18:42,780
Robinson gets more targets than 
George Pickens. 

383
00:18:43,180 --> 00:18:48,180
You know, like take this year I.
Think that's be careful if you 

384
00:18:48,180 --> 00:18:50,740
gave me, if you gave me like 3 
to one odds on that, I think I 

385
00:18:50,740 --> 00:18:52,100
might take it. 
Because I mean, to be honest, 

386
00:18:52,900 --> 00:18:54,620
yeah, were there target rates 
that I. 

387
00:18:54,620 --> 00:18:55,940
Mean three to one odds last 
year. 

388
00:18:56,940 --> 00:18:58,900
They probably were closer than 
we wanna admit. 

389
00:18:58,980 --> 00:19:01,380
Even last year, when Robinson 
was awful cuz Pickens was pretty

390
00:19:01,380 --> 00:19:04,850
low. 
But anyways, let's while we have

391
00:19:04,850 --> 00:19:09,130
Matt, I wanna I wanna get into 
some of this ADP debates for the

392
00:19:09,130 --> 00:19:12,450
top players. 
I wanna quickly like Orient 

393
00:19:12,450 --> 00:19:16,690
people to what the numbers we're
gonna be showing are here. 

394
00:19:16,890 --> 00:19:20,130
So these these are the charts 
that you're probably familiar 

395
00:19:20,130 --> 00:19:24,210
with with Matt stuff. 
Success rate, success by route 

396
00:19:24,610 --> 00:19:27,130
and route percentage for 
different players. 

397
00:19:28,090 --> 00:19:30,650
This week I dug into creating 
this metric. 

398
00:19:31,310 --> 00:19:33,550
Which is called success rate 
over expected. 

399
00:19:33,550 --> 00:19:37,430
And I just wanna quickly walk 
people through what that means 

400
00:19:37,430 --> 00:19:40,030
so they understand it cuz we're 
gonna be talking about it on the

401
00:19:40,030 --> 00:19:42,750
charts. 
It's essentially a way. 

402
00:19:42,750 --> 00:19:45,910
And I know Matt, you've actually
written about this, condensing 

403
00:19:46,230 --> 00:19:49,110
all of your work into a single 
metric is not the goal of 

404
00:19:49,110 --> 00:19:51,750
reception perception, and it's 
way more nuanced than that, but 

405
00:19:51,750 --> 00:19:53,270
just for the purposes of putting
well, we. 

406
00:19:53,350 --> 00:19:54,950
Did it anyway. 
We did it, yeah. 

407
00:19:56,470 --> 00:19:59,510
Part of putting out like data is
that. 

408
00:20:00,130 --> 00:20:02,570
You know, once it's out there, 
you kinda gotta let it go in 

409
00:20:02,570 --> 00:20:04,010
terms of like what people do 
with it. 

410
00:20:04,010 --> 00:20:08,930
So yeah, and hey, this is a lot 
better, Sam, what you've done is

411
00:20:08,930 --> 00:20:11,970
a lot better than taking like, 
screenshotting one of the charts

412
00:20:11,970 --> 00:20:15,250
and being like, here's some take
that I would probably never 

413
00:20:15,250 --> 00:20:17,610
have, but insert person on 
Twitter definitely has. 

414
00:20:17,610 --> 00:20:20,050
And I'm like, all right, well, 
can't wait for this to come back

415
00:20:20,050 --> 00:20:24,210
to me and so. 
Yeah, so I don't wanna say this 

416
00:20:24,210 --> 00:20:27,370
is. 
Kind of my metric and Matt is 

417
00:20:27,370 --> 00:20:29,770
not like fully rubber sampling 
or endorsing it, but I'll 

418
00:20:29,770 --> 00:20:31,490
explain how it works and then we
can talk through it. 

419
00:20:31,490 --> 00:20:36,610
So for Crystal Ave. for example,
you see his success rate by 

420
00:20:36,610 --> 00:20:40,410
route and his route percentage. 
What you can do then and this 

421
00:20:40,410 --> 00:20:41,770
table here kind of illustrates 
it. 

422
00:20:42,050 --> 00:20:45,370
We have NFL average success 
rates across all of these 

423
00:20:45,370 --> 00:20:48,570
routes. 
So say for example, look at the 

424
00:20:48,570 --> 00:20:52,130
corner route, the NFL average 
success rate is 62% on those 

425
00:20:52,130 --> 00:20:55,570
routes. 
Chris Alave last year had a 94% 

426
00:20:55,570 --> 00:20:57,690
success rate on the corner, 
which is extremely good. 

427
00:20:58,010 --> 00:21:01,010
So in that next row, success 
rate over expected, you see that

428
00:21:01,050 --> 00:21:05,090
on a corner rate, he had sort of
a + 31% success rate over 

429
00:21:05,090 --> 00:21:09,610
expected on that route. 
Then like if you do that across 

430
00:21:09,690 --> 00:21:13,610
all of the routes that a player 
runs and then weight it by the 

431
00:21:13,610 --> 00:21:16,690
percentage of the different 
routes they're running. 

432
00:21:17,310 --> 00:21:21,110
You get to an overall success 
rate over expected by route. 

433
00:21:21,270 --> 00:21:23,870
So essentially what this does is
like if a player has a really 

434
00:21:23,870 --> 00:21:27,030
high success rate, but they're 
running a ton of easy routes, 

435
00:21:27,030 --> 00:21:30,790
say like just a bunch of 
screens, slants, curls. 

436
00:21:31,070 --> 00:21:34,110
This metric will actually harm 
them a little bit, but if they 

437
00:21:34,110 --> 00:21:37,510
have a low success rate and 
they're running a ton of tricky 

438
00:21:37,510 --> 00:21:43,150
routes, nines, posts, corners, 
etc, this metric will actually 

439
00:21:43,150 --> 00:21:45,110
make them look a little bit 
better. 

440
00:21:45,530 --> 00:21:47,490
So that's essentially what this 
is doing. 

441
00:21:47,490 --> 00:21:53,170
I also did this by that was by 
route and I also did this by 

442
00:21:53,170 --> 00:21:56,010
coverage. 
So a very similar idea, but we 

443
00:21:56,010 --> 00:22:00,530
can look at players, routes and 
success rate versus man double 

444
00:22:00,530 --> 00:22:04,850
teams, man single teams and zone
and basically I'm not gonna walk

445
00:22:04,850 --> 00:22:07,250
through it, but it's very 
similar math there you can get 

446
00:22:07,250 --> 00:22:09,850
to a success rate over expected 
by coverage. 

447
00:22:10,650 --> 00:22:13,450
So you have those two numbers 
and what I did is just average 

448
00:22:13,450 --> 00:22:15,130
them. 
I said there's probably some 

449
00:22:15,130 --> 00:22:17,530
signal in that success rate over
expected by route. 

450
00:22:17,530 --> 00:22:19,970
There's probably some signal in 
the success rate over expected 

451
00:22:19,970 --> 00:22:23,770
by coverage. 
I average them together and 

452
00:22:23,770 --> 00:22:27,490
that's essentially the number 
that's going to be showing up on

453
00:22:27,490 --> 00:22:30,010
these charts. 
So before we get into it, Matt, 

454
00:22:30,010 --> 00:22:33,650
I'm curious like does this, I 
realize it doesn't cover 

455
00:22:33,650 --> 00:22:35,250
everything. 
You do a ton more than this, 

456
00:22:35,250 --> 00:22:37,650
like you you track and test and 
catch, you track yak. 

457
00:22:37,650 --> 00:22:40,330
There's like way more to your 
analysis than just this, but. 

458
00:22:40,770 --> 00:22:44,610
I'm curious if you like your 
reaction to to this metric, if 

459
00:22:44,610 --> 00:22:48,490
you think it generally makes 
sense, or yeah, just just any 

460
00:22:48,490 --> 00:22:51,090
thoughts you have. 
Well, I think that it makes so 

461
00:22:51,090 --> 00:22:53,130
much inherent sense. 
And you know, this is something 

462
00:22:53,130 --> 00:22:55,930
I talk about a lot too, is that 
these guys who are running more 

463
00:22:55,930 --> 00:23:00,410
vertical route trees like you're
in there is unnecessarily like a

464
00:23:00,410 --> 00:23:03,730
lower expected success rate when
you're running a lot of nines, 

465
00:23:03,730 --> 00:23:05,810
posts and corners. 
You know, we talked about 

466
00:23:05,810 --> 00:23:07,850
Pickens earlier. 
He's a guy who does a lot of 

467
00:23:07,850 --> 00:23:10,370
that and he like he does have 
some lower success rates. 

468
00:23:10,610 --> 00:23:12,490
Especially against zone 
coverage, some of that might not

469
00:23:12,490 --> 00:23:15,250
necessarily be his fault or 
would maybe be different if his 

470
00:23:15,250 --> 00:23:16,650
route tree was mixed up a little
bit. 

471
00:23:16,650 --> 00:23:19,330
Christian Watson is another 
example from last year. 

472
00:23:19,650 --> 00:23:21,810
But then you see a guy like a 
lot and I'm glad you know a lot 

473
00:23:21,810 --> 00:23:26,130
of is a guy that you put here on
the on the slide is like he's 

474
00:23:26,130 --> 00:23:28,050
not running. 
He's running like an extremely 

475
00:23:28,050 --> 00:23:31,370
vertical route tree, but has 
like a 75% success rate versus 

476
00:23:31,370 --> 00:23:33,770
man coverage, which is 
extremely, extremely high, which

477
00:23:33,770 --> 00:23:36,140
is why I'm so bullish on him. 
As a player. 

478
00:23:36,140 --> 00:23:38,420
So he's a great example and I 
think sometimes when you put 

479
00:23:38,420 --> 00:23:41,180
example to something like that 
it's why it kind of passes the 

480
00:23:41,180 --> 00:23:43,220
smell test to me and cuz yeah, 
it's something I talk about all 

481
00:23:43,220 --> 00:23:45,740
the time. 
Like it's it starts with 

482
00:23:45,740 --> 00:23:48,100
alignment for sure, but then you
got to bleed into like what 

483
00:23:48,100 --> 00:23:50,820
routes are they running and and 
that might be very, very 

484
00:23:50,820 --> 00:23:54,140
different for a guy like Olave 
versus you know Garrett Wilson 

485
00:23:54,140 --> 00:23:56,500
from last year. 
Just another example to pit 2 

486
00:23:56,500 --> 00:23:58,260
rookies together to against each
other. 

487
00:23:58,820 --> 00:24:02,420
Yeah, that that makes sense. 
Yeah. 

488
00:24:02,420 --> 00:24:05,700
So and I think just like a way 
that I thought about this, if 

489
00:24:05,700 --> 00:24:08,500
you're if you got lost in all 
the math there, totally fine. 

490
00:24:08,500 --> 00:24:10,220
I get it. 
It's a lot of numbers. 

491
00:24:10,220 --> 00:24:12,940
It's confusing. 
I'd say like generally success 

492
00:24:12,940 --> 00:24:16,580
rate over expected in theory, 
you can think of it as how often

493
00:24:16,580 --> 00:24:20,620
a player gets open relative to 
expectation based on their route

494
00:24:20,620 --> 00:24:24,340
tree and their coverage faced. 
So that's more or less what this

495
00:24:24,340 --> 00:24:27,340
number is telling you. 
And the route tree one I think 

496
00:24:27,780 --> 00:24:30,460
it could be important for 
fantasy because some of the 

497
00:24:30,660 --> 00:24:33,270
deeper stuff like. 
Produces fantasy points in big 

498
00:24:33,390 --> 00:24:35,430
ways, right? 
We don't wanna penalize a lobby 

499
00:24:35,430 --> 00:24:38,710
for running 9 routes in any way 
cuz like, give us those nine 

500
00:24:38,710 --> 00:24:40,350
routes. 
Yeah, we want, We want. 

501
00:24:41,470 --> 00:24:42,390
Exactly. 
Yeah. 

502
00:24:42,910 --> 00:24:45,310
So this okay now what we're 
gonna talk through, we'll go 

503
00:24:45,310 --> 00:24:48,790
through the different sort of 
zones in the fantasy landscape 

504
00:24:48,790 --> 00:24:52,150
this year. 
This is showing the round one 

505
00:24:52,150 --> 00:24:55,710
and two wide receivers. 
So you see on this chart here a 

506
00:24:55,710 --> 00:24:58,070
ton of studs. 
All these guys have above 

507
00:24:58,070 --> 00:25:00,030
average success rate over 
expected. 

508
00:25:00,750 --> 00:25:04,830
The, the baseline for players in
rounds one and two is around a 5

509
00:25:04,830 --> 00:25:07,110
to 6% success rate over 
expected. 

510
00:25:07,350 --> 00:25:10,310
So these colors here 
highlighting the players that 

511
00:25:10,390 --> 00:25:14,550
are you know doing a little bit 
worse or much better to that 

512
00:25:14,550 --> 00:25:16,030
relative to where they're going 
in the draft. 

513
00:25:16,030 --> 00:25:18,830
So you know I think this is 
interesting like I think we 

514
00:25:18,830 --> 00:25:23,230
should be a little bit pickier 
this year in terms of the WAD 

515
00:25:23,230 --> 00:25:26,150
receivers were drafting very 
early, just cuz their prices are

516
00:25:26,150 --> 00:25:28,630
so much higher. 
So again we're not saying like 

517
00:25:29,030 --> 00:25:30,780
you know. 
This metric isn't even saying A 

518
00:25:30,780 --> 00:25:33,820
Manra, Jalen Waddell or T 
Higgins are bad players. 

519
00:25:33,820 --> 00:25:37,780
It's just saying, like, compared
to everyone else in this range, 

520
00:25:38,020 --> 00:25:42,260
they're not quite hitting on the
level of the A.J. 

521
00:25:42,260 --> 00:25:45,940
Brown, Diggs, Avante, Adams. 
So I wanted to start with with a

522
00:25:45,940 --> 00:25:47,940
Manra. 
I think some of the stud guys on

523
00:25:47,940 --> 00:25:50,820
the left hand side here like 
what's the point of talking 

524
00:25:50,820 --> 00:25:54,180
about Swan Diggs or Tyree Kill? 
We all know those guys are just 

525
00:25:54,180 --> 00:25:56,620
absolute studs, so let's dive 
into a Manra. 

526
00:25:57,040 --> 00:26:00,760
He shows up here with just a 1% 
success rate over expected 

527
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:05,440
again, that's that's still good.
I think part of the reason why 

528
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:08,400
he doesn't flash as much as 
other guys here is one, he 

529
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:11,400
struggles and sort of some of 
the harder routes in your data. 

530
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:14,560
Matt on the post and the Nine, 
he has sort of a higher 

531
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:18,200
percentage of socalled easier 
routes, flats, slants and 

532
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:21,160
screens. 
He also faced zone coverage a 

533
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:25,120
bit more than players. 
In this range did so that's why 

534
00:26:25,120 --> 00:26:26,120
he shows up there. 
Yeah. 

535
00:26:26,120 --> 00:26:29,240
Just curious your thoughts on a 
Manra sort of at the, you know, 

536
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,960
back half of the first round, 
early second round, What are 

537
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:35,760
your thoughts on on him in that 
range? 

538
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,840
Yeah, super unique role, right? 
I mean he's we're talking about 

539
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:44,120
3% of his route, 3.8% of his 
routes were 9 routes, 4.2% of 

540
00:26:44,120 --> 00:26:47,680
his routes were curl routes, 
2.7% excuse me, post routes, and

541
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:49,720
2.7% of his routes were corner 
routes. 

542
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:51,760
He's not run a lot of downfield 
stuff he's running. 

543
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:53,840
Almost. 
You know, when he came into the 

544
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:56,800
league, I called him Bud like 
Cooper Cup, you know, and like 

545
00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:59,520
the ideal role that he would 
play was that type of role. 

546
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,000
And I think that's again what 
he's gone on to play here with 

547
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:05,320
the Detroit Lions. 
So what what he's doing is so 

548
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:07,960
different from, you know, a guy 
like A.J. 

549
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:10,640
Brown or Stefan Diggs certainly 
or you know any of these guys 

550
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:12,980
he's. 
He's run extremely different 

551
00:27:12,980 --> 00:27:16,620
route tree than these players. 
So a lot of what I call Sam like

552
00:27:16,620 --> 00:27:18,740
in terms of saying easy routes, 
just call him like he's run a 

553
00:27:18,740 --> 00:27:21,420
lot of layup routes, right. 
Like in which is great recorder 

554
00:27:21,420 --> 00:27:24,540
back like Jared Goff who loves 
to throw those layup routes. 

555
00:27:24,540 --> 00:27:26,060
We come do it with actual Cooper
Cup. 

556
00:27:26,060 --> 00:27:28,700
We've seen him do it with this 
player now and I'm on Ross St. 

557
00:27:28,700 --> 00:27:32,220
Brown. 
He's tough though because I mean

558
00:27:32,220 --> 00:27:36,580
dude like who who is stretching 
the field here for the Lions in 

559
00:27:36,580 --> 00:27:39,580
the first six weeks of the 
season when Jamison Williams 

560
00:27:39,580 --> 00:27:42,500
isn't playing like. 
Is it this version of Marvin 

561
00:27:42,500 --> 00:27:43,900
Jones? 
Is it, is it Johnson? 

562
00:27:45,180 --> 00:27:49,220
It's like, I mean it, it's it's 
tough to say. 

563
00:27:49,220 --> 00:27:52,900
So can you run? 
Look, I don't think DJ Truck's a

564
00:27:52,900 --> 00:27:54,900
great player. 
I think he's, you know, he's 

565
00:27:54,900 --> 00:27:57,340
lost a lot of juice after all 
the injuries the last few years.

566
00:27:57,340 --> 00:28:00,420
He's not really much of A 
separator, but he's a downfield 

567
00:28:00,420 --> 00:28:03,820
ball winner that that can 
stretch the field from that X 

568
00:28:03,820 --> 00:28:07,250
receiver position in that way. 
I mean, I don't know that any of

569
00:28:07,250 --> 00:28:09,210
these other dudes are 
necessarily doing that. 

570
00:28:09,210 --> 00:28:12,090
And, you know, can you run a 
healthy, functional passing 

571
00:28:12,090 --> 00:28:13,970
offense? 
You know, is this guy going to 

572
00:28:13,970 --> 00:28:15,930
score a lot of touchdowns in the
first six weeks of this year? 

573
00:28:15,930 --> 00:28:17,530
I mean, shoot, we also, by the 
way, like, we're talking about 

574
00:28:17,530 --> 00:28:18,890
Jameson Williams. 
We don't know who Jameson 

575
00:28:18,890 --> 00:28:20,770
Williams is going to be like, 
right? 

576
00:28:20,770 --> 00:28:22,650
There's a lot of projecting 
there, so. 

577
00:28:22,810 --> 00:28:26,650
He might be John Baldwin, buddy.
Right, right. 

578
00:28:26,650 --> 00:28:29,970
A J Jenkins. 
I mean, if he's Galen Geiten, 

579
00:28:29,970 --> 00:28:31,930
it's still would help Aman, Ross
and Brown, right? 

580
00:28:32,210 --> 00:28:34,650
Like, I think a little bit could
help. 

581
00:28:35,300 --> 00:28:39,540
Yeah, yeah, I I just, I love 
Aman, Ross and Brown the player.

582
00:28:40,100 --> 00:28:42,820
You know, I was really bullish 
on him last year cuz he'd shown 

583
00:28:42,860 --> 00:28:46,060
a lot of the skills that you 
want in this big power slot 

584
00:28:46,060 --> 00:28:48,580
receiving role. 
You know, a guy that can beats 

585
00:28:48,580 --> 00:28:50,820
own coverage, a guy that's 
really good on those layup 

586
00:28:50,820 --> 00:28:52,820
routes. 
But I think this kind of shows 

587
00:28:52,820 --> 00:28:57,460
that there's some things that 
he's not as good at as some of 

588
00:28:57,460 --> 00:29:00,020
these other players, like that's
Okay and when he's playing in 

589
00:29:00,020 --> 00:29:02,940
this specific role from like an 
NFL receiver standpoint. 

590
00:29:03,290 --> 00:29:05,290
But when you're thinking about 
it from a fantasy standpoint, 

591
00:29:05,290 --> 00:29:08,610
like trying to hit a high 
ceiling, he's gonna need a lot 

592
00:29:08,610 --> 00:29:10,970
of things to go right. 
Cuz even all the things went 

593
00:29:10,970 --> 00:29:14,170
right for Cooper Cup a couple 
years ago when he, you know, won

594
00:29:14,170 --> 00:29:15,450
the Triple Crown. 
He was awesome. 

595
00:29:15,450 --> 00:29:17,730
But you know, he had a 
quarterback that could stretch 

596
00:29:17,730 --> 00:29:20,090
the field vertically. 
He had, you know, some receivers

597
00:29:20,090 --> 00:29:22,250
that could stretch the field 
vertically and Odell Beckham. 

598
00:29:22,250 --> 00:29:24,330
And then obviously Robert Woods 
was good and even Van 

599
00:29:24,330 --> 00:29:26,090
Jefferson's like, not a bad 
player either. 

600
00:29:26,090 --> 00:29:27,500
So. 
I don't know. 

601
00:29:27,500 --> 00:29:31,580
It's just those same ingredients
aren't quite there for for Amman

602
00:29:31,580 --> 00:29:34,380
Rah and and the Lions, but he's 
definitely about to get a 

603
00:29:34,380 --> 00:29:37,180
boatload of targets. 
It's just like how how a 

604
00:29:37,220 --> 00:29:39,340
efficient are those targets 
going to be and be like how far 

605
00:29:39,340 --> 00:29:40,620
down the field of those targets 
going to be? 

606
00:29:40,620 --> 00:29:43,140
Probably not very far. 
I I think on underdog, 

607
00:29:43,140 --> 00:29:46,340
specifically St. 
Bron's prices, it's probably 

608
00:29:46,500 --> 00:29:47,900
pretty bad. 
I just don't. 

609
00:29:47,900 --> 00:29:53,180
I don't see him developing into 
a 13 touchdown per season guy. 

610
00:29:53,180 --> 00:29:55,780
Now that doesn't mean he can't 
do it once. 

611
00:29:56,210 --> 00:29:57,890
Or a couple. 
It's not like obviously I think 

612
00:29:57,890 --> 00:30:00,330
he's very good. 
He got tackled at the one a 

613
00:30:00,330 --> 00:30:04,370
bunch last year and touchdowns 
are are sort of noisy. 

614
00:30:04,370 --> 00:30:09,010
Anyway, the Reeves made this 
comp to me and I've never been 

615
00:30:09,010 --> 00:30:11,890
able to get it out of my head, 
which is that he's Keenan Allen,

616
00:30:12,250 --> 00:30:15,090
you know, he just he he is super
dependable. 

617
00:30:15,290 --> 00:30:18,850
He's going to catch 100 passes a
year, but you are just going to 

618
00:30:18,850 --> 00:30:22,250
be begging for 33 point weeks, 
you know like what you're going 

619
00:30:22,250 --> 00:30:25,250
to watch DK Metcalf. 
You know, just put some poor 

620
00:30:25,250 --> 00:30:28,970
49ers quarterback in an early 
grave and you're going to be 

621
00:30:28,970 --> 00:30:33,570
like, you know, say Brown is not
doing that now on DraftKings, 

622
00:30:33,570 --> 00:30:35,290
which we have not talked about a
ton here. 

623
00:30:35,490 --> 00:30:38,410
I think he's way better, right? 
Because he's going to like those

624
00:30:38,410 --> 00:30:41,450
10 catch games. 
I mean, shit, he could get. 

625
00:30:41,780 --> 00:30:45,180
Multiple 10 catch games in that 
first six weeks before the 

626
00:30:45,180 --> 00:30:48,220
combination of 1 waiting for 
James and Williams to get back 

627
00:30:48,260 --> 00:30:52,300
and two just figuring out like 
can Sam LaPorte play 80% of the 

628
00:30:52,300 --> 00:30:54,820
snaps or do we need to be 
playing Brock Wright for the 

629
00:30:54,820 --> 00:30:59,340
first couple weeks anyway? 
And the Cory and I want your 

630
00:30:59,340 --> 00:31:02,240
take on this but like. 
It feels especially and this is 

631
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,600
backed up by the data but like 
drafters getting scared of 

632
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:08,880
Devonte Adams because Jimmy 
Garoppolo like may or may not be

633
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:10,440
the court. 
Like what are we doing here? 

634
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:14,320
Do we did Does anyone really 
think it matters if Brian Hoyer 

635
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:17,680
start like Devonte Adams is just
going to be Devonte Adams. 

636
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:21,200
It does like he I Zach Wilson 
could be his quarterback and I 

637
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:22,800
wouldn't be concerned. 
Like what? 

638
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:26,480
What are we doing letting 
Devonte Adams be like? 

639
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:28,640
I see Jalen Waddell go ahead of 
Adams. 

640
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:32,260
I got Adams at 16. 
In a draft last night, what are 

641
00:31:32,260 --> 00:31:34,420
people doing? 
I'm curious your thoughts pat on

642
00:31:34,420 --> 00:31:37,340
on that, like the the atoms of 
Manra waddle grouping. 

643
00:31:37,340 --> 00:31:41,540
To me it's so clearly Adams, but
do you have anything else to say

644
00:31:41,540 --> 00:31:42,980
on like why? 
I don't know. 

645
00:31:43,100 --> 00:31:44,700
Do you have a different take on 
that? 

646
00:31:45,180 --> 00:31:47,260
Well, I don't want to be 
underweight really any of these 

647
00:31:47,260 --> 00:31:49,980
guys. 
So to me, like the thing with 

648
00:31:49,980 --> 00:31:56,900
Adams is that he is now falling.
So if I'm sitting at like 11. 

649
00:31:58,610 --> 00:32:00,690
I think Adams might be more 
likely to get back to me 

650
00:32:00,690 --> 00:32:07,330
certainly than like a CD Lam. 
So I've taken, I've passed on on

651
00:32:07,330 --> 00:32:11,010
Adams just to get exposure to 
the other guys and also to be 

652
00:32:11,010 --> 00:32:14,330
like I would like my discount 
that everyone else is getting. 

653
00:32:15,930 --> 00:32:18,650
But I don't really get it. 
I I I want to be overweight, 

654
00:32:18,690 --> 00:32:21,290
Adams and I am. 
We don't have to go really deep 

655
00:32:21,290 --> 00:32:23,770
into this, but I have just been 
wanting to make this point, 

656
00:32:23,770 --> 00:32:27,330
which is that we we draft teams 
like, not exposures. 

657
00:32:27,750 --> 00:32:30,830
So like, I'm not I'm not passing
up on a guy I think is a good 

658
00:32:30,830 --> 00:32:34,030
value, just cuz I think I might 
get four more picks of value a 

659
00:32:34,030 --> 00:32:37,910
couple times in August. 
Like I I still want to be 

660
00:32:37,910 --> 00:32:40,230
drafting Devonte Adams instead 
of Oman Ross St. 

661
00:32:40,230 --> 00:32:41,710
Brown. 
But I also don't want to be 

662
00:32:41,710 --> 00:32:44,830
under I I guess my thing with 
Oman on Saint Brown is like, he 

663
00:32:45,310 --> 00:32:47,190
is his charts, really 
interesting, his reception 

664
00:32:47,190 --> 00:32:50,350
perception chart because he he 
kind of looks like he is who he 

665
00:32:50,350 --> 00:32:51,950
thought he was. 
It's like my take away from it, 

666
00:32:51,950 --> 00:32:54,830
like he does the things he does 
really well, he sucks, are the 

667
00:32:54,830 --> 00:32:58,050
things he doesn't do well. 
But like he's with Jared Goff, 

668
00:32:58,050 --> 00:32:59,930
like there's no, yeah, that's 
not a problem. 

669
00:33:00,370 --> 00:33:02,130
Like who care? 
Like if he does, he does the 

670
00:33:02,130 --> 00:33:05,250
thing that you would want Jared 
Goff's primary receiver to do 

671
00:33:05,250 --> 00:33:06,810
really well and he does it 
exceptionally. 

672
00:33:06,810 --> 00:33:12,810
So my goal with that group is to
be as close to even on the non 

673
00:33:12,810 --> 00:33:17,770
Devante guys as I can and then 
overweight Devante Adams because

674
00:33:17,770 --> 00:33:20,570
I think he's he seems like a 
pretty big value when he's in 

675
00:33:20,570 --> 00:33:21,970
the second round. 
Yeah. 

676
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:26,800
Let's jump over to Waddle. 
He's the other guy we've alluded

677
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:30,440
to here. 
He also shows up again, 2% 

678
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:33,120
success rate over expectation is
still good. 

679
00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:36,520
I can't overstate that, but 
again, not as good as other guys

680
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:39,670
in this chart. 
I think that again is primarily 

681
00:33:39,670 --> 00:33:41,190
driven. 
He's definitely a different 

682
00:33:41,190 --> 00:33:45,550
architect than a Manra, but he 
still did have a high percentage

683
00:33:45,630 --> 00:33:48,870
of his routes being flats, 
slants and screens. 

684
00:33:48,870 --> 00:33:51,470
This again, this is also 2020 to
2022. 

685
00:33:51,470 --> 00:33:55,550
So maybe part of that is baking 
in his routes from 2021 

686
00:33:55,590 --> 00:33:58,790
actually, which were a lot more 
in the short area than they were

687
00:33:58,790 --> 00:34:01,550
last year. 
I believe his success rate, 

688
00:34:01,550 --> 00:34:03,930
first man. 
Kind of plateaued from year one 

689
00:34:03,930 --> 00:34:05,810
to year two. 
We didn't see a huge jump there.

690
00:34:06,410 --> 00:34:09,530
And he also, this is kind of a 
minor note, but he faced a low 

691
00:34:09,530 --> 00:34:12,130
rate of double teams relative to
a lot of these other wide 

692
00:34:12,130 --> 00:34:14,050
receivers. 
I mean that actually is baked 

693
00:34:14,050 --> 00:34:15,969
into this number a little bit. 
I'm guessing that's because. 

694
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:19,679
Obviously Tyree kills on his 
team, so Waddle is not facing 

695
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:23,040
the same, you know, press double
coverage that some of these 

696
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:26,760
other wide receivers are facing.
So I think that's all baked into

697
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:30,199
his number here. 
But Matt, I'm curious your 

698
00:34:30,199 --> 00:34:32,880
thoughts on on Waddle. 
Do you think he has the 

699
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:37,320
potential to to jump up into 
sort of the next year of guys or

700
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:40,000
do you think this assessment 
that the chart shows of him 

701
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,320
being overvalued is, is 
accurate? 

702
00:34:43,150 --> 00:34:45,550
Yeah, he's a tricky 1 and I'm 
glad you brought up the 

703
00:34:45,550 --> 00:34:48,870
difference between year one and 
year two cuz like if you watch 

704
00:34:48,870 --> 00:34:51,790
Jalen Waddell in college and 
then you watched him his rookie 

705
00:34:51,790 --> 00:34:56,070
year, you'd be like, well, 
that's not like that, like his 

706
00:34:56,070 --> 00:34:57,870
rookie year is not what he's 
really supposed to be doing, you

707
00:34:57,870 --> 00:35:00,030
know, that's really not like, I 
mean you you definitely want him

708
00:35:00,030 --> 00:35:02,430
on some of these underneath and 
lay up routes like these really 

709
00:35:02,430 --> 00:35:03,870
good after the catch. 
Obviously he's got it really, 

710
00:35:03,910 --> 00:35:05,150
you know, he's got a ton of 
speed. 

711
00:35:05,540 --> 00:35:08,700
But yeah, in his rookie year, 
24.4% of his routes were slants,

712
00:35:08,700 --> 00:35:13,180
14.4% of his routes were flat 
routes, you know, and then 5.2% 

713
00:35:13,180 --> 00:35:16,540
of his routes were screens. 
All three of those numbers came 

714
00:35:16,540 --> 00:35:20,500
down, especially the flat route 
came down by almost like 50%, 

715
00:35:20,820 --> 00:35:24,140
you know, Which is great because
he was certainly his best stuff 

716
00:35:24,140 --> 00:35:27,260
as a year two player was like 
running dig routes, was running 

717
00:35:27,260 --> 00:35:29,900
post routes, was running out 
routes and like beating zone 

718
00:35:29,900 --> 00:35:32,220
coverage. 
And he's really good. 

719
00:35:32,220 --> 00:35:34,020
I think in that area he's he's 
not. 

720
00:35:34,660 --> 00:35:36,420
Like some of this stuff against 
press coverage is not. 

721
00:35:36,420 --> 00:35:38,900
It's not bad, but it's not up to
the the level of some of these 

722
00:35:38,900 --> 00:35:42,180
other players, like an Alave or 
Devante Smith, or even 

723
00:35:42,180 --> 00:35:44,860
especially like a Devante Adams 
for sure. 

724
00:35:45,570 --> 00:35:49,570
So I think there are some some 
holes in his game but still a 

725
00:35:49,570 --> 00:35:53,130
really good player and I mean I 
I think a great player and you 

726
00:35:53,130 --> 00:35:56,330
know is he ever is he like a one
beer is he a true really good 

727
00:35:56,330 --> 00:35:59,210
high end number two I think 
that's kind of the from a like 

728
00:35:59,210 --> 00:36:01,690
talent perspective that's sort 
of where I'm I'm kind of 

729
00:36:01,690 --> 00:36:04,250
juggling him a little bit but it
is worth noting too and I think 

730
00:36:04,250 --> 00:36:06,090
this is kind of be a good and a 
bad thing that. 

731
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,600
The Dolphins last year used 
Tyree kill his. 

732
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:11,600
His numbers aren't up on the 
site yet from last year, but 

733
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:14,760
they will be by next week. 
He's the guy who they used him 

734
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:16,840
more off the line than they did 
Jalen Waddell. 

735
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:19,440
They had Jalen Waddell run like 
more of the X receiver route 

736
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:21,760
tree as much as you can have. 
Like a true X receiver in that 

737
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:25,160
offense. 
He was more on the line not 

738
00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:26,480
doing as much pre snap motion 
stuff. 

739
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:28,680
So like again, that could be a 
good and a bad thing. 

740
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:31,160
It's a good credit to Waddell 
and what he did last year, but 

741
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:34,170
like they're the more like. 
Created touches stuff was 

742
00:36:34,170 --> 00:36:36,610
definitely Tyree Kill than it 
was Jlo Waddle last year. 

743
00:36:36,610 --> 00:36:38,330
Yeah. 
And that shows up in the targets

744
00:36:38,330 --> 00:36:40,650
data for sure. 
I think Tyree had like 50 more 

745
00:36:40,650 --> 00:36:42,690
targets than than Waddle or 
something like that. 

746
00:36:42,970 --> 00:36:47,690
Pat, curious, you mentioned you 
wanted to be at the field with 

747
00:36:47,690 --> 00:36:49,290
Waddle. 
So yeah, curious just like in 

748
00:36:49,290 --> 00:36:54,090
your your bowl case for him, 
what makes you really excited 

749
00:36:54,090 --> 00:36:57,570
about him in the second round? 
Well, it's interesting that, you

750
00:36:57,570 --> 00:37:00,570
know, you talk about the route. 
Changing, you know, his the the 

751
00:37:00,570 --> 00:37:02,490
mix of routes that he's running 
changing because that 

752
00:37:02,490 --> 00:37:06,770
definitely, like, you know, 
worked its way up into a dot, 

753
00:37:06,770 --> 00:37:10,170
which I is a number that I look 
at it a lot and you know, people

754
00:37:10,170 --> 00:37:14,090
will be pretty familiar with. 
His a dot jumped from 7.0 as a 

755
00:37:14,090 --> 00:37:18,530
rookie to 12.7 last year. 
And to me, like that's huge. 

756
00:37:18,770 --> 00:37:21,570
That's like 2 completely 
different types of receivers. 

757
00:37:21,610 --> 00:37:26,610
Like that's an underneath, like 
a limited underneath, you know? 

758
00:37:26,900 --> 00:37:30,820
Probably primarily a slot guy. 
Ran 60% of his snaps in the slot

759
00:37:30,820 --> 00:37:34,140
corner. 
PFF as a rookie, dropped down to

760
00:37:34,140 --> 00:37:38,940
26% last year out of the slot. 
Mostly out wide last year and 

761
00:37:38,940 --> 00:37:42,500
his A dot jumps to 12.7. 
It's like he became, he like 

762
00:37:42,500 --> 00:37:45,260
literally became two different 
types of receivers by these 

763
00:37:45,260 --> 00:37:48,380
numbers and it sounds like 
that's backed up by the route 

764
00:37:48,380 --> 00:37:51,860
data And then. 
Waddle Waddle's interesting in 

765
00:37:51,860 --> 00:37:53,980
that in that way too. 
Just because you know. 

766
00:37:55,540 --> 00:37:58,380
I like made an offhanded comment
in my Discord, you know the 

767
00:37:58,380 --> 00:38:01,300
other week it set out and then 
like logged off and you know set

768
00:38:01,300 --> 00:38:04,420
off like kind of a firestorm And
I said like yeah you know like a

769
00:38:04,420 --> 00:38:08,100
dots not always a it's not like 
a why I said it was not a wide 

770
00:38:08,100 --> 00:38:10,340
receiver stat and what I 
remember that is that it's not a

771
00:38:11,100 --> 00:38:14,220
wide receiver isolating stat 
right because you can look at 

772
00:38:14,220 --> 00:38:17,660
Jalen Waddell in 2021 with that 
like 7 yard average depth of 

773
00:38:17,660 --> 00:38:21,540
target and a lot of that is the 
circumstances around him. 

774
00:38:21,540 --> 00:38:23,260
It meant he could do that stuff 
really well. 

775
00:38:23,260 --> 00:38:26,710
But like if you took that. 7 
yard average depth of target and

776
00:38:26,710 --> 00:38:28,030
be like well he can't win 
downfield. 

777
00:38:28,030 --> 00:38:30,350
It's like well again no, we're 
talking about like look at the 

778
00:38:30,350 --> 00:38:33,230
guys 9 route success rate the 
dig route success rate the out 

779
00:38:33,230 --> 00:38:37,070
and corner route in his year one
data in reception perception 

780
00:38:37,070 --> 00:38:39,710
like yeah this guy can clearly 
win downfield it's just his 

781
00:38:39,710 --> 00:38:42,270
quarterback was not throwing it 
downfield and. 

782
00:38:43,490 --> 00:38:45,650
Obviously you know that offense 
was really weird with all the 

783
00:38:45,650 --> 00:38:47,330
RPO like quick hitting stuff 
anyway. 

784
00:38:47,330 --> 00:38:49,970
So yeah, it's like sometimes, 
and this is not always the case,

785
00:38:49,970 --> 00:38:52,490
a lot of times, like guys, a dot
is what it is and like it is 

786
00:38:52,490 --> 00:38:54,890
very descriptive of the player. 
But I think this is a very good 

787
00:38:54,890 --> 00:38:56,690
example where that's not always 
the case. 

788
00:38:56,890 --> 00:38:59,890
It's a role stat. 
I think, you know it's like he's

789
00:39:00,290 --> 00:39:02,570
he was being used in that 
underneath role. 

790
00:39:02,570 --> 00:39:06,290
He did it pretty well but new 
coaching staff and I love that. 

791
00:39:06,370 --> 00:39:08,890
You know, we can go see like OK 
he's being used in this role. 

792
00:39:08,890 --> 00:39:11,500
It's underneath role. 
But what what was his success 

793
00:39:11,500 --> 00:39:13,060
rate on the deep stuff? 
I was good. 

794
00:39:13,300 --> 00:39:16,940
OK yeah it's used in a slightly 
different role now which is 

795
00:39:16,940 --> 00:39:20,780
exactly what happened. 
I mean he jumped the the thing 

796
00:39:20,780 --> 00:39:27,220
with me with wattle is that the 
Tyreke, his efficiency and like 

797
00:39:27,220 --> 00:39:29,540
just in terms of target earning 
and target per outrun, all that 

798
00:39:29,540 --> 00:39:32,900
stuff like off the charts and 
then you just go to wattle. 

799
00:39:32,980 --> 00:39:34,300
So like to compare him to 
Tyreke. 

800
00:39:34,300 --> 00:39:37,220
He's going to look like Oh my 
God is it clear secondary option

801
00:39:37,220 --> 00:39:43,550
also as a second year player. 
He was unbelievably good like 

802
00:39:43,550 --> 00:39:46,430
that. 
That's to me, that's the the 

803
00:39:46,430 --> 00:39:49,150
bull case for wattle. 
Like it's a very simple clean 

804
00:39:49,150 --> 00:39:49,790
bull case. 
Actually. 

805
00:39:49,790 --> 00:39:53,110
It's like I let's stop talking 
about Tyra Hill for a second and

806
00:39:53,390 --> 00:39:56,750
just focus on wattles numbers 
compared to what we would 

807
00:39:56,750 --> 00:39:59,910
normally expect for a wide 
receiver to be drafted here. 

808
00:40:00,030 --> 00:40:02,110
Like you want a yards per hour 
run. 

809
00:40:02,110 --> 00:40:05,030
He had 2.46 yards per hour run 
last year's second run player. 

810
00:40:05,830 --> 00:40:08,350
He's a, you know, a very high 
draft pick. 

811
00:40:09,050 --> 00:40:13,290
Got elite speed this I think a 
lot of reasons to be excited 

812
00:40:13,290 --> 00:40:16,930
about him you know and then also
now we're not sure what's going 

813
00:40:16,930 --> 00:40:19,050
on with this Tyree kill 
situation. 

814
00:40:20,490 --> 00:40:23,410
So there's like that's just like
another reason for me to be like

815
00:40:23,850 --> 00:40:27,410
God if I if I'm underweight this
explosive second year player or 

816
00:40:27,570 --> 00:40:31,050
third year player now and he has
a big season that's really going

817
00:40:31,050 --> 00:40:34,010
to hurt. 
He has a big season and he he's 

818
00:40:34,010 --> 00:40:37,290
like the the clear top option on
the Dolphins for six of those 

819
00:40:37,290 --> 00:40:39,840
games or whatever. 
Probably not that high of a 

820
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:42,640
chance, but it's another reason 
that I really don't want to be 

821
00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:45,240
underweight him. 
Well, there's also outs with him

822
00:40:45,240 --> 00:40:47,720
too. 
So like let's say maybe Jalen 

823
00:40:47,720 --> 00:40:53,000
Wattle if if there was a way for
us to like truly distill skill 

824
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:56,560
level, which is like kind of 
what this exercise is attempting

825
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:59,080
to get at. 
Obviously you know, true skill 

826
00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:01,800
level is sort of unknowable, but
let's say it was knowable, 

827
00:41:02,040 --> 00:41:04,480
right? 
And let's say Wattles true skill

828
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:08,780
level is. 
Maybe we think he's an A minus 

829
00:41:08,780 --> 00:41:11,300
right now, but let's say in 
reality he's just a B or maybe 

830
00:41:11,300 --> 00:41:15,300
even a B minus. 
For fantasy specifically, I'm 

831
00:41:15,300 --> 00:41:18,420
not even sure how much that 
matters because there are other 

832
00:41:18,420 --> 00:41:22,860
options in terms of distributing
the ball are chosen Anderson, 

833
00:41:23,460 --> 00:41:26,740
Durham, Smite, Eric, Umaku, 
Zama. 

834
00:41:28,620 --> 00:41:32,980
You know, just like Braxton 
Barrios, like anonymous players 

835
00:41:33,180 --> 00:41:37,740
who are not going to earn 
targets like, so I'm, I'm with 

836
00:41:37,740 --> 00:41:39,700
you. 
I mean obviously the other nice 

837
00:41:39,700 --> 00:41:41,900
thing about taking Waddle is 
that you kind of know what 

838
00:41:41,900 --> 00:41:44,420
you're doing with your team. 
You're like, OK, it's like, OK, 

839
00:41:44,420 --> 00:41:47,980
all right, I am taking to a in 
round nine, I'm taking Bateman 

840
00:41:47,980 --> 00:41:50,180
or Flowers in round eight like 
you have. 

841
00:41:50,550 --> 00:41:52,070
Like it's just. 
He lines up really well with 

842
00:41:52,070 --> 00:41:53,830
Lamar. 
If you want to try to do Lamar. 

843
00:41:53,830 --> 00:41:57,830
Exactly, exactly. 
He, he he builds really nice 

844
00:41:57,830 --> 00:42:00,550
teams for sure, yeah. 
Yes, Matt, we're referring to 

845
00:42:00,630 --> 00:42:02,470
week, week 17 correlation aren't
off. 

846
00:42:02,470 --> 00:42:06,510
You're as as sick in the weeds 
as we are with the best Lamar, 

847
00:42:06,510 --> 00:42:09,350
yeah. 
I'm no, I'm. 

848
00:42:09,550 --> 00:42:13,990
I'm familiar. 
Carmen took a vacation and like 

849
00:42:13,990 --> 00:42:16,430
saw his family. 
So, like, you know, I mean, I 

850
00:42:16,430 --> 00:42:19,390
think, I think, I think maybe 
he's not thinking about Nelson 

851
00:42:19,390 --> 00:42:21,150
Agalore leading the Baltimore 
Ravens. 

852
00:42:22,070 --> 00:42:24,270
Now that correlates with Joe 
Model. 

853
00:42:24,790 --> 00:42:26,550
I'm not. 
I'm not thinking about it. 

854
00:42:26,710 --> 00:42:29,350
But I understand why you guys 
are talking about it, if that 

855
00:42:31,070 --> 00:42:33,190
makes it clear, Yeah, no, the 
whole time, Pat, you were 

856
00:42:33,190 --> 00:42:35,700
talking, I was like. 
Yeah, who's their third 

857
00:42:35,700 --> 00:42:37,300
receiver, right? 
Like, yes. 

858
00:42:37,700 --> 00:42:39,260
Yeah, that offense was great 
last year. 

859
00:42:39,300 --> 00:42:40,900
And they're like, hey, what 
we're gonna do is we're gonna 

860
00:42:40,900 --> 00:42:43,180
throw the ball to our good 
players and we have three 

861
00:42:43,220 --> 00:42:45,100
really, really, really good 
players. 

862
00:42:45,100 --> 00:42:49,340
And there is a scenario if this 
Tyreke thing goes S like they 

863
00:42:49,340 --> 00:42:53,140
could have one excellent player,
maybe not an elite player, but 

864
00:42:53,140 --> 00:42:55,260
like an excellent player in 
Jalen Waddell and then. 

865
00:42:55,670 --> 00:42:58,590
Yeah, like Chosen the Artist, 
formerly known as Robbie, you 

866
00:42:58,590 --> 00:43:00,910
know, with a Y&E i.e. at one 
point. 

867
00:43:00,910 --> 00:43:03,710
You know, like we're not looking
at it very. 

868
00:43:03,790 --> 00:43:09,950
So, weirdly enough, on Underdog 
he's chosen Anderson. 

869
00:43:09,990 --> 00:43:12,270
On DraftKings he's Robbie 
chosen. 

870
00:43:12,590 --> 00:43:15,030
So I don't yeah, which which one
is? 

871
00:43:15,030 --> 00:43:17,350
It that screwed up my DraftKings
rankings for it that we like, 

872
00:43:17,350 --> 00:43:19,270
added them to the DraftKings 
rankings and they broke. 

873
00:43:20,340 --> 00:43:23,420
He's Robbie shows he's the guy. 
That we're I'm like merging data

874
00:43:23,420 --> 00:43:27,100
sets from like Matt's data from 
like all these different sources

875
00:43:27,100 --> 00:43:30,620
and he has a different he's like
Robbie Anderson with a Y in some

876
00:43:30,620 --> 00:43:34,140
data like Robbie Anderson. 
I he's like different different 

877
00:43:34,140 --> 00:43:36,260
name on every source. 
I'm like please guys let's pick 

878
00:43:36,260 --> 00:43:38,140
a name for this guy. 
I was about to say he's like, 

879
00:43:38,140 --> 00:43:40,220
yeah, he's like a data scraping 
nightmare. 

880
00:43:40,220 --> 00:43:42,860
There was a, you know, when I, 
when I merged, like my old 

881
00:43:42,860 --> 00:43:45,660
reception perception data when I
was, you know, with the fantasy 

882
00:43:45,660 --> 00:43:47,900
footballers and doing their 
draft kit stuff and then like. 

883
00:43:48,330 --> 00:43:51,330
Merging it with the site there 
was for whatever reason in in 

884
00:43:51,330 --> 00:43:56,650
that old data set DK Metcalf was
like D dot K dot Metcalf and 

885
00:43:56,650 --> 00:43:59,570
then I had just written him in 
as DK Metcalf because I think 

886
00:43:59,570 --> 00:44:02,650
that's how it's pretty like 95% 
sure that's how it was supposed 

887
00:44:02,650 --> 00:44:04,850
to be. 
And I got so I got like one 

888
00:44:04,850 --> 00:44:09,330
insane e-mail or like comment or
something about how like how can

889
00:44:09,330 --> 00:44:12,250
I even trust you with like 
reliable data if you don't even 

890
00:44:12,250 --> 00:44:16,010
know what the geez yeah so I 
feel you on the on the Robbie 

891
00:44:16,010 --> 00:44:19,410
Chosen Anderson thing. 
Yeah, final thing on wattle I 

892
00:44:19,410 --> 00:44:21,050
think or final two things we'll 
say. 

893
00:44:21,450 --> 00:44:23,970
I think that the risk with 
wattle I think is not like the 

894
00:44:23,970 --> 00:44:26,650
skill level risk. 
I think you guys have outlined 

895
00:44:26,650 --> 00:44:28,930
that well. 
I think the risk is just Miami's

896
00:44:28,930 --> 00:44:32,210
systemic risk like you, you look
at the second-half splits with 

897
00:44:32,210 --> 00:44:35,130
Miami and they really did fall 
off a Cliff that could have been

898
00:44:35,130 --> 00:44:38,170
to a injury related that could 
have been you know defenses 

899
00:44:38,170 --> 00:44:40,530
playing these guys differently 
related, I don't know. 

900
00:44:40,530 --> 00:44:42,770
But I think there is some 
systemic risk with Miami 

901
00:44:42,810 --> 00:44:43,650
jumping. 
To that. 

902
00:44:44,100 --> 00:44:46,940
Yeah, they started defending the
middle of the field a lot more. 

903
00:44:47,140 --> 00:44:48,980
There was a lot of film takes on
that I saw. 

904
00:44:49,620 --> 00:44:51,620
Exactly. 
And that's secondly, I'll say we

905
00:44:51,620 --> 00:44:54,140
talked about Chosen, Anderson, 
all these guys, Braxton Barrios 

906
00:44:54,140 --> 00:44:56,020
to get three and a half million 
guaranteed. 

907
00:44:56,100 --> 00:44:57,980
So I I think he's going to be 
the third guy here. 

908
00:44:58,060 --> 00:45:00,220
Don't I know it. 
He's an extremely good round 

909
00:45:00,220 --> 00:45:02,340
twenty thing. 
Yeah, yeah. 

910
00:45:02,900 --> 00:45:05,260
But anyways, let's, let's move 
to Devonta Smith. 

911
00:45:05,260 --> 00:45:08,420
We've alluded to Crystal Lava, I
think kind of outlined the case 

912
00:45:08,420 --> 00:45:10,300
here. 
He shows up really well here, 

913
00:45:10,300 --> 00:45:12,340
but let's, let's move on to 
Smith. 

914
00:45:12,740 --> 00:45:17,060
He's a guy shows up here with 6%
success rate over expected, 

915
00:45:17,060 --> 00:45:21,340
which you know among this 
grouping in the back half of the

916
00:45:21,340 --> 00:45:25,300
second round is really strong. 
Matt, curious, we talked about a

917
00:45:25,300 --> 00:45:26,860
little bit with Smith versus 
versus A.J. 

918
00:45:26,860 --> 00:45:31,220
Brown, but I think the the sort 
of hot debate in the fantasy 

919
00:45:31,220 --> 00:45:34,220
community now is like can 
Devonta Smith like even 

920
00:45:34,220 --> 00:45:36,460
surpassed A.J. 
Brown or at least like equal, 

921
00:45:36,620 --> 00:45:38,540
equal his production from a 
fantasy standpoint? 

922
00:45:39,100 --> 00:45:41,380
Do you think like would you put 
that in? 

923
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:44,920
Can we frame this too? 
Is Devon Smith versus T Higgins 

924
00:45:44,920 --> 00:45:48,600
a little bit because they're 
going right next to each other 

925
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:50,880
in ADP. 
And I think in some ways it's a 

926
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:55,720
similar kind of overall 
situation in terms of 1A1B type 

927
00:45:55,720 --> 00:45:57,360
wide receiver stuff. 
Yeah. 

928
00:45:57,360 --> 00:46:00,120
Yeah, I think that is a really 
good way to frame it because 

929
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:02,600
like if you just ask me the 
question like who's the best 

930
00:46:03,240 --> 00:46:07,760
#21B receiver, like in this 
bucket right here of Jalen 

931
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:09,480
Waddell, Devon Smith and T 
Higgins, I think. 

932
00:46:09,870 --> 00:46:11,430
Smith is the best player of the 
three. 

933
00:46:11,430 --> 00:46:15,670
Like from just a pure individual
standpoint, is he better than a 

934
00:46:15,670 --> 00:46:17,350
J. 
Brown or is that like possible. 

935
00:46:17,950 --> 00:46:20,630
I mean a J Brown's just so good.
Like we're talking about a guy 

936
00:46:20,630 --> 00:46:23,950
who's been number like he's been
in the top three or top five and

937
00:46:23,950 --> 00:46:26,470
success rate versus man and 
press coverage for three 

938
00:46:26,470 --> 00:46:29,710
straight years now. 
Like in among the very best 

939
00:46:29,710 --> 00:46:31,990
receivers in the league of 
beating man and press coverage 

940
00:46:31,990 --> 00:46:34,750
and he had his highest success 
rate versus own coverage last 

941
00:46:34,750 --> 00:46:36,910
season last season of his entire
career and like. 

942
00:46:37,430 --> 00:46:39,670
Yeah, he's been one of the best 
receivers in the NFL for 

943
00:46:39,670 --> 00:46:42,550
basically since he got into the 
league, so it's tough to say 

944
00:46:42,550 --> 00:46:44,150
whether Smith could be better 
than A.J. 

945
00:46:44,150 --> 00:46:45,470
Brown. 
But I think if you're just 

946
00:46:45,470 --> 00:46:48,630
looking at it versus T Higgins 
or versus Jalen Waddell, from a 

947
00:46:48,630 --> 00:46:50,870
pure individual player 
perspective, I think he's the 

948
00:46:50,870 --> 00:46:54,150
best of those three guys and 
what he does really well. 

949
00:46:54,650 --> 00:46:56,970
Is route running. 
It is nuanced and he does it 

950
00:46:56,970 --> 00:47:00,610
from a vertical perspective, 
which is why he pops up here in 

951
00:47:00,610 --> 00:47:02,970
a success rate over expected 
because he's running, you know 

952
00:47:02,970 --> 00:47:06,410
20.4% of his routes or 9 routes.
He's running above average rate 

953
00:47:06,410 --> 00:47:08,490
of corner routes. 
He's it within the NFL average 

954
00:47:08,490 --> 00:47:11,010
in terms of post routes. 
He's not running a lot of slants

955
00:47:11,010 --> 00:47:14,330
and flats and stuff like that. 
He is definitely winning big boy

956
00:47:14,330 --> 00:47:17,330
down field NFL routes. 
He's running against press 

957
00:47:17,330 --> 00:47:19,730
coverage, 87th percentile 
success rate versus press 

958
00:47:19,730 --> 00:47:22,190
coverage in his second season. 
Just a really good player now. 

959
00:47:22,190 --> 00:47:24,750
Again, I think he's better from 
an individual standpoint than 

960
00:47:24,750 --> 00:47:26,750
these other guys, and that's no 
disrespect to them. 

961
00:47:26,750 --> 00:47:28,670
They're really good players too.
I just happen to think he's a 

962
00:47:28,670 --> 00:47:33,430
little bit better. 
Do you see like the Cuz when 

963
00:47:33,590 --> 00:47:37,630
we're taking a guy like Smith, 
there's that upside of Kenny 

964
00:47:37,630 --> 00:47:41,870
maybe force a little bit more of
A, you know can he become the 

965
00:47:41,870 --> 00:47:43,830
one A / A J. 
Brown even. 

966
00:47:43,870 --> 00:47:47,910
But even if he doesn't like, can
he just kind of keep that like, 

967
00:47:47,990 --> 00:47:50,190
I mean he did lead the team in 
targets I believe. 

968
00:47:51,930 --> 00:47:53,610
So can you kind of maintain 
that? 

969
00:47:54,610 --> 00:47:58,370
But then there's also the, the 
important thing of is this guy 

970
00:47:58,370 --> 00:48:02,370
just so good, you know in 
combination with the other wide 

971
00:48:02,370 --> 00:48:05,810
receiver who's so good, can they
just kind of gather all the 

972
00:48:05,810 --> 00:48:09,650
targets? 
And so like if you look at Smith

973
00:48:09,650 --> 00:48:13,130
versus Higgins, do you see a big
difference there in terms of 

974
00:48:13,130 --> 00:48:17,250
like how their talent will kind 
of protect their situation and 

975
00:48:17,250 --> 00:48:19,010
create upside for them or are 
they? 

976
00:48:20,150 --> 00:48:23,550
Both good enough to where it's 
kind of the way people generally

977
00:48:23,550 --> 00:48:26,150
perceive it. 
I think that yeah, there's 

978
00:48:26,150 --> 00:48:30,190
probably, there's probably a 
chance that he could be better 

979
00:48:30,190 --> 00:48:33,390
than A J Brown but it's probably
like a 5% chance, like just 

980
00:48:33,390 --> 00:48:35,950
better as a pure individual. 
But by the way we're talking 

981
00:48:35,950 --> 00:48:38,430
about 5% that he's better than 
one of the guys that just said 

982
00:48:38,430 --> 00:48:40,550
has been the one of the best 
receivers in the NFL, like a top

983
00:48:40,550 --> 00:48:42,070
five receivers since he 
basically. 

984
00:48:42,430 --> 00:48:44,310
Got into the league right? 
So it might be a small 

985
00:48:44,310 --> 00:48:46,550
percentage chance, but the fact 
that the chance exists is just 

986
00:48:46,870 --> 00:48:49,110
something. 
Yeah, it's a high bar to clear, 

987
00:48:49,350 --> 00:48:51,350
but the important thing is kind 
of what you're saying too about.

988
00:48:51,350 --> 00:48:54,070
We just had this conversation 
with the Dolphins like who's the

989
00:48:54,070 --> 00:48:55,950
Eagles third receiver? 
Obviously they have Dallas 

990
00:48:55,950 --> 00:48:59,350
Goddard, which is a pretty big 
difference than what the 

991
00:48:59,350 --> 00:49:01,030
Dolphins are doing. 
But after that. 

992
00:49:02,190 --> 00:49:04,630
I love. 
I love these, you know? 

993
00:49:04,990 --> 00:49:06,350
Concentrated. 
Offenses. 

994
00:49:06,350 --> 00:49:07,990
Yeah. 
I mean yeah cause Watkins, he's 

995
00:49:08,030 --> 00:49:11,550
he's he's there he's a guy but I
mean you know if you're you're 

996
00:49:11,550 --> 00:49:12,870
going out there you're throwing 
the ball to A J. 

997
00:49:12,870 --> 00:49:14,670
Brown, you're throwing it to 
Devon Smith, you're throwing it 

998
00:49:14,670 --> 00:49:16,550
to Dallas Goddard for the most 
part. 

999
00:49:16,950 --> 00:49:19,870
So yeah I think that I think 
it's going to be a concentrated 

1000
00:49:19,870 --> 00:49:21,030
offense. 
I think it's going to be a huge 

1001
00:49:21,030 --> 00:49:23,710
part of it. 
Again the I'm I'm only saying he

1002
00:49:23,710 --> 00:49:25,830
has such a small percent chance 
to be better than A J. 

1003
00:49:25,830 --> 00:49:29,230
Brown from a player perspective 
just because that's how high I 

1004
00:49:29,230 --> 00:49:32,000
view A J Brown. 
And he's probably never going to

1005
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:34,040
be better than A.J. 
Brown at like yards after. 

1006
00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:36,360
Like there's some stuff that's 
not captured in the success 

1007
00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:37,840
rate, stuff like the yak 
ability. 

1008
00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:40,680
I think Devant is actually a 
little underrated for his yak. 

1009
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:44,080
Like he's not, as he's not Tyler
Lockett falling down after every

1010
00:49:44,080 --> 00:49:46,200
catch, but he's he's not going 
to be A.J. 

1011
00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:49,320
Brown, just stiff arming dudes 
in the turf and taking it to the

1012
00:49:49,320 --> 00:49:49,840
house. 
Right. 

1013
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:53,880
Let me let me ask this, who do 
you think of these three guys? 

1014
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:56,640
Waddell, Higgins, Smith, Who do 
you think has the most 

1015
00:49:56,640 --> 00:49:59,960
contingent value if the other 
guy were to miss if all three of

1016
00:49:59,960 --> 00:50:02,700
the top? 
Options in their offenses miss 

1017
00:50:02,700 --> 00:50:05,140
the entire season, Begin entire 
season. 

1018
00:50:05,180 --> 00:50:07,580
Out of all three of these guys, 
who do you think has the most 

1019
00:50:07,580 --> 00:50:11,940
upset? 
That's a great question cuz I 

1020
00:50:11,940 --> 00:50:15,180
think all of these guys are 
capable of being #1 receivers. 

1021
00:50:15,180 --> 00:50:17,340
Like I think T Higgins could be 
a number one on a team. 

1022
00:50:17,340 --> 00:50:19,500
I think Jalen WADA could be a 
number one on a team. 

1023
00:50:20,060 --> 00:50:22,420
I think Devonta Smith could 
definitely be a number one on a 

1024
00:50:22,420 --> 00:50:23,860
team. 
I think the best. 

1025
00:50:24,560 --> 00:50:26,160
That's where I think it's hard 
because I think the best 

1026
00:50:26,160 --> 00:50:29,040
situation for all of these guys 
is probably like if there's no 

1027
00:50:29,040 --> 00:50:31,360
Jamar Chase and like T Higgins 
steps into that role. 

1028
00:50:31,360 --> 00:50:34,120
But I don't know man, that's a 
hard one. 

1029
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:36,320
I think. 
I think it's, I'll take the guy 

1030
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:38,400
who I just think is the best 
player though and I think that 

1031
00:50:38,400 --> 00:50:40,320
is Devonte Smith. 
So I'll just double back on that

1032
00:50:40,320 --> 00:50:43,240
and. 
I agree with Matt on all three 

1033
00:50:43,240 --> 00:50:45,280
prongs. 
I think he would have the best 

1034
00:50:45,440 --> 00:50:47,680
season. 
I think he's the best player. 

1035
00:50:48,220 --> 00:50:51,620
And I I think he would have the 
most to game because I also 

1036
00:50:51,620 --> 00:50:54,460
think his coaching staff is the 
best and would figure out how to

1037
00:50:54,460 --> 00:50:56,940
optimize losing a guy like a J 
Brown. 

1038
00:50:56,980 --> 00:51:02,500
Like I think like a lava. 
I mean also one like for a lava 

1039
00:51:02,500 --> 00:51:04,700
and speaking about these guys 
like Michael Thomas is going to 

1040
00:51:04,700 --> 00:51:06,500
be done playing after like 6 
quarters. 

1041
00:51:06,500 --> 00:51:09,500
So like I'm like basically 
counting a lava like that. 

1042
00:51:09,500 --> 00:51:10,700
This just going to happen for 
him. 

1043
00:51:10,700 --> 00:51:11,940
Anyway, waddles the other one 
guy? 

1044
00:51:11,980 --> 00:51:14,250
No. 
I was thinking, I don't. 

1045
00:51:14,290 --> 00:51:17,490
It's just in my mind. 
In my mind, Devonta and Alave 

1046
00:51:17,490 --> 00:51:20,930
are forever mingled. 
The same person, Yeah. 

1047
00:51:22,730 --> 00:51:25,130
But like, I feel like WADA would
actually. 

1048
00:51:25,130 --> 00:51:28,350
Probably. 
Be worse without Tyreke? 

1049
00:51:28,350 --> 00:51:30,710
That's what I was going to That 
was a big argument for, like, 

1050
00:51:30,710 --> 00:51:35,630
the offense looks so broken. 
So bad. 21 without Tyreke and 

1051
00:51:35,630 --> 00:51:38,390
like, who is playing on? 
Is it chosen Anderson on the 

1052
00:51:38,390 --> 00:51:40,310
outside? 
Like man, I think that gets 

1053
00:51:40,310 --> 00:51:42,070
tough for water lift. 
Tyreke's not there. 

1054
00:51:42,070 --> 00:51:44,830
Obviously the volume ceiling 
could be crazy, right? 

1055
00:51:44,830 --> 00:51:47,070
But like, is that offense 
functional? 

1056
00:51:47,670 --> 00:51:50,550
It's. 
Chosen it's chosen Brios, 

1057
00:51:50,710 --> 00:51:53,420
Durham, Smythe. 
Yeah, I think like, whereas 

1058
00:51:53,420 --> 00:51:55,940
Philadelphia, I think the 
offense can still be functional 

1059
00:51:55,940 --> 00:51:56,700
without A.J. 
Brown. 

1060
00:51:56,700 --> 00:51:58,500
Just cuz Jalen Hertz is so damn 
good. 

1061
00:51:58,700 --> 00:52:00,260
You know, they got talented 
running backs. 

1062
00:52:00,260 --> 00:52:02,820
They got Dallas Goddard. 
I think obviously it's worse 

1063
00:52:02,820 --> 00:52:04,580
without A.J. 
Brown, but it doesn't get to 

1064
00:52:04,580 --> 00:52:08,060
like just unusable. 
I do worry a little bit about 

1065
00:52:08,060 --> 00:52:10,700
Miami without Tyreke. 
Like is that even a functional 

1066
00:52:10,700 --> 00:52:11,420
offense? 
Yeah, I get. 

1067
00:52:11,620 --> 00:52:14,540
That we're getting definitely 
into the weeds a lot with like 

1068
00:52:14,540 --> 00:52:16,540
the the Dolphins part of it, 
but. 

1069
00:52:17,330 --> 00:52:19,170
You know, you mentioned the one 
you guys said that they were 

1070
00:52:19,170 --> 00:52:22,370
like film takes about like when 
they, you know, closed up the 

1071
00:52:22,370 --> 00:52:24,730
middle of the field. 
They're not offering that to Tua

1072
00:52:24,730 --> 00:52:26,330
and how he struggled with that a
little bit. 

1073
00:52:26,570 --> 00:52:29,210
A lot of that too is like 
they're playing physical press 

1074
00:52:29,210 --> 00:52:31,490
coverage on these receivers on 
the outside. 

1075
00:52:31,490 --> 00:52:33,970
And because a lot of teams early
in the year were just scared to 

1076
00:52:33,970 --> 00:52:36,530
get like, all right, you, you 
pressed Tyreke, you pressed a 

1077
00:52:36,530 --> 00:52:38,490
little while, but you're going 
to get ripped over the top a 

1078
00:52:38,490 --> 00:52:41,610
couple of times per game. 
And that is true. 

1079
00:52:41,930 --> 00:52:44,090
But you know the rest of the 
snaps can be. 

1080
00:52:44,460 --> 00:52:47,100
Problematic for the quarterback.
I mean these guys can beat press

1081
00:52:47,100 --> 00:52:49,500
coverage, but the guy who 
struggles with it more is Jalen 

1082
00:52:49,500 --> 00:52:51,860
Wattle. 
So you know that's that's and it

1083
00:52:52,020 --> 00:52:53,740
struggle in like a relative 
term, right. 

1084
00:52:53,740 --> 00:52:56,260
He has like a 69% success rate 
versus man. 

1085
00:52:56,260 --> 00:52:59,260
He's he's weaker against press 
coverage and some of these other

1086
00:52:59,260 --> 00:53:02,300
guys we're talking about. 
So it's not like a, I would say 

1087
00:53:02,300 --> 00:53:04,300
a true weakness in his game. 
But when you're picking nits 

1088
00:53:04,340 --> 00:53:06,420
among talk receivers here, it's 
something to point out. 

1089
00:53:06,420 --> 00:53:11,440
Got it. 
Let's I'll give the four Davis, 

1090
00:53:11,440 --> 00:53:15,400
Pat any final questions about 
any of these other round one or 

1091
00:53:15,400 --> 00:53:18,240
two wide receivers while we have
Matt that you wanna pick his 

1092
00:53:18,240 --> 00:53:20,160
brain on or Pat, do you have 
something I could say in 

1093
00:53:20,160 --> 00:53:21,080
response? 
No, I don't. 

1094
00:53:21,080 --> 00:53:23,560
I have a question about a guy on
the next slide. 

1095
00:53:23,560 --> 00:53:24,880
I think so. 
Okay, David. 

1096
00:53:25,400 --> 00:53:26,600
David, does that have any 
questions? 

1097
00:53:26,640 --> 00:53:28,710
Go ahead. 
No, no, I'm good. 

1098
00:53:28,710 --> 00:53:32,390
I think this data to me is like,
way more interesting with guys 

1099
00:53:32,390 --> 00:53:34,630
worth arguing about. 
Like no one's gonna stake their 

1100
00:53:34,630 --> 00:53:38,350
reputation on Jalen Wattle being
bad, but someone might be 

1101
00:53:38,350 --> 00:53:41,190
someone that we know might even 
be like, oh, DK Metcalf's a 

1102
00:53:41,190 --> 00:53:43,150
little overrated. 
Well, that's what I want to talk

1103
00:53:43,150 --> 00:53:44,310
about. 
Yeah, I know. 

1104
00:53:44,390 --> 00:53:48,710
OK, Yeah, dive into Metcalf then
then. 

1105
00:53:48,830 --> 00:53:53,550
Well, I mean, I guess so it did.
OK, so Tyler Lockett made this. 

1106
00:53:54,470 --> 00:53:56,670
He's been great. 
I think he was. 

1107
00:53:57,400 --> 00:53:59,520
One or two. 
And ESPN's open score last year 

1108
00:53:59,520 --> 00:54:03,080
as well, yeah, he was second 
behind Deonte Johnson there. 

1109
00:54:03,640 --> 00:54:09,040
So the dude is has not fallen 
off and DK Metcalf obviously 

1110
00:54:09,040 --> 00:54:11,640
very good as well. 
But this is kind of as we talk 

1111
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:16,160
about the concentrated offense 
question like I think sometimes 

1112
00:54:16,160 --> 00:54:19,640
people get a little bit too 
concerned about who the one it 

1113
00:54:19,640 --> 00:54:22,400
you know the one versus the two.
It's like if you're an explosive

1114
00:54:22,400 --> 00:54:25,480
offense and it's a concentrated 
offense. 

1115
00:54:26,500 --> 00:54:29,700
You know, it doesn't always 
matter that much who the top 

1116
00:54:29,700 --> 00:54:31,740
wide receiver is, who the 
secondary wide receiver is. 

1117
00:54:31,940 --> 00:54:35,500
Partly I think, because wide 
receiver talent is such an 

1118
00:54:35,500 --> 00:54:39,380
important part of this whole 
question, like the reason 

1119
00:54:39,420 --> 00:54:41,860
there's a reason why the 
Dolphins offensive is so 

1120
00:54:41,860 --> 00:54:44,300
concentrated. 
I mean, Mike McDaniel literally 

1121
00:54:44,300 --> 00:54:47,180
built a system around getting 
two guys to ball because those 

1122
00:54:47,180 --> 00:54:51,260
are the two best guys by miles. 
You know that he can get the 

1123
00:54:51,260 --> 00:54:53,260
ball. 
The guys, he can get the ball 

1124
00:54:53,260 --> 00:54:58,410
into their hands, so. 
Concentrated offenses with two 

1125
00:54:58,410 --> 00:55:01,650
wide receivers, great. 
Maybe even better than just one 

1126
00:55:01,650 --> 00:55:04,570
really good guy. 
But when you get to 3, then it 

1127
00:55:04,570 --> 00:55:06,170
can get a little bit more 
tricky. 

1128
00:55:06,170 --> 00:55:08,890
And now we have this with the 
Seahawks, where you've got DK 

1129
00:55:08,890 --> 00:55:12,450
Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and 
Jackson Smith and Jigba, who 

1130
00:55:12,450 --> 00:55:15,330
looks like he has a pretty high 
ceiling as a target earner. 

1131
00:55:15,810 --> 00:55:19,330
And I think the specific way 
that he wins could be a real 

1132
00:55:19,330 --> 00:55:21,690
problem for the other guys in 
the offense, because he could be

1133
00:55:21,690 --> 00:55:24,700
more of just. 
You know, target dominator and 

1134
00:55:24,700 --> 00:55:27,580
just getting a lot of volume, 
sucking volume out of the 

1135
00:55:27,580 --> 00:55:32,620
offense for the other guys. 
So how protected do you think DK

1136
00:55:32,620 --> 00:55:36,260
Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are 
from Jackson Smith and Jigba 

1137
00:55:36,260 --> 00:55:39,190
hitting the ground running? 
Yeah. 

1138
00:55:39,190 --> 00:55:41,950
I mean look I've been a tire 
lock guy for Davis knows this 

1139
00:55:41,950 --> 00:55:44,150
you know I've been a tire lock 
guy for a long time. 

1140
00:55:44,390 --> 00:55:46,190
You know we've had it we've had 
a lot of discussions over the 

1141
00:55:46,190 --> 00:55:49,350
years That's like back in the 
NFL podcast days Davis about 

1142
00:55:49,350 --> 00:55:52,030
like Tyler Lockett when I was 
too too high on him too early 

1143
00:55:52,030 --> 00:55:54,950
right. 
I I love Tyler Lock I think he's

1144
00:55:54,950 --> 00:55:56,630
a great player. 
I think you I can easily make a 

1145
00:55:56,630 --> 00:55:59,310
case that DK Metcalf has been an
awesome player the last two 

1146
00:55:59,310 --> 00:56:01,430
years. 
I can just as easily make a case

1147
00:56:01,430 --> 00:56:03,870
that tire lockets been the best 
receiver on that team the last 

1148
00:56:03,870 --> 00:56:05,750
two years even though like 
Metcalf checks the. 

1149
00:56:06,190 --> 00:56:09,110
Prototypical size, speed 
barometers we usually like to 

1150
00:56:09,110 --> 00:56:11,110
see. 
I think it's really tough like I

1151
00:56:11,110 --> 00:56:14,190
I don't think that that my 
problem with these two receivers

1152
00:56:14,310 --> 00:56:16,550
is that I don't. 
I think there's like other than 

1153
00:56:16,550 --> 00:56:20,230
age, which I guess is, is, is, 
is certainly a variable, there's

1154
00:56:20,230 --> 00:56:22,030
no doubt about that. 
But like you said, Pat, I don't 

1155
00:56:22,030 --> 00:56:25,150
think there's any evidence that 
Locket has fallen off to this 

1156
00:56:25,150 --> 00:56:27,390
point. 
I don't understand like if we're

1157
00:56:27,390 --> 00:56:29,350
talking about who's protected of
the two. 

1158
00:56:29,860 --> 00:56:34,020
Why Lockett would be less 
protected or less insulated from

1159
00:56:34,020 --> 00:56:36,060
Jackson Smith and Jigba than 
Metcalf would be. 

1160
00:56:36,060 --> 00:56:37,740
I think it's like kind of a coin
flip. 

1161
00:56:37,980 --> 00:56:40,580
I guess the the one thing you 
could say, too is that like, 

1162
00:56:40,580 --> 00:56:42,940
Metcalf has been a true X 
receiver. 

1163
00:56:43,300 --> 00:56:44,860
And you know this like one of 
these guys. 

1164
00:56:44,860 --> 00:56:47,900
And like that's probably not 
Jackson Smith and Jigba's role. 

1165
00:56:48,220 --> 00:56:50,580
But to me, I just think they're 
going to come out there and 

1166
00:56:50,580 --> 00:56:52,580
they're going to play in 11 
personnel a ton. 

1167
00:56:52,580 --> 00:56:55,100
I don't care what B Carroll says
about, you know, two tight ends 

1168
00:56:55,100 --> 00:56:58,500
like the way NFL coaches are. 
He's not, he's not going to come

1169
00:56:58,500 --> 00:57:01,300
out there and be like. 
OK, well, we're playing 11 

1170
00:57:01,300 --> 00:57:03,660
personnel now because. 
When the rubber meets the road, 

1171
00:57:05,060 --> 00:57:07,580
he's not playing Will Disney 
over Smith and Jake. 

1172
00:57:07,580 --> 00:57:10,820
But like if Smith and Jake shows
up and he is who they think he 

1173
00:57:10,820 --> 00:57:13,580
is, it's 11 personnel from the 
jump. 

1174
00:57:13,900 --> 00:57:18,340
My and I know Corrine doesn't 
agree with this, but my thought 

1175
00:57:18,340 --> 00:57:22,660
has always been Metcalf is the 
one who is completely insulated.

1176
00:57:22,660 --> 00:57:24,380
He just is going to do what he's
always done. 

1177
00:57:24,380 --> 00:57:25,980
He's going to score 10 
touchdowns. 

1178
00:57:26,300 --> 00:57:30,500
Maybe he never achieves the peak
of what he could with his 

1179
00:57:30,500 --> 00:57:32,700
physical gifts, because he's 
always playing with another 

1180
00:57:32,700 --> 00:57:35,460
great wide receiver. 
And maybe Metcalf is a B plus 

1181
00:57:35,460 --> 00:57:37,660
wide receiver and not an A minus
wide receiver. 

1182
00:57:37,660 --> 00:57:41,900
So we'll never be Jamar Chase or
Justin Jefferson or whoever, but

1183
00:57:42,340 --> 00:57:45,820
nothing Smith and Jig but or 
Tyler Lockett could do would 

1184
00:57:45,820 --> 00:57:49,160
change. 
The base role that he has, like 

1185
00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:52,120
I I just, I don't. 
I do not foresee an offense 

1186
00:57:52,120 --> 00:57:56,440
where DK Metcalf ends the season
with 85 targets because Lockett 

1187
00:57:56,440 --> 00:57:59,320
and Metcalf were just that much 
or Lockett and Smith and Jigmo 

1188
00:57:59,320 --> 00:58:01,880
were that much better than him. 
And maybe I'll maybe I'll eat 

1189
00:58:01,880 --> 00:58:03,920
it, but I feel pretty good 
about. 

1190
00:58:03,920 --> 00:58:07,120
This is that like when we talk 
about like blocking Matt, 

1191
00:58:07,200 --> 00:58:09,360
mattering Matt, like that's what
I'm thinking like. 

1192
00:58:09,750 --> 00:58:12,630
We get to Week 14 or get to the 
end of the year and two wide 

1193
00:58:12,630 --> 00:58:14,150
receiver sets. 
We're in there when they're at 

1194
00:58:14,150 --> 00:58:16,630
the goal line, there's no way 
they're taking DK Metcalf off 

1195
00:58:16,630 --> 00:58:17,950
the field or. 
No2 of. 

1196
00:58:17,950 --> 00:58:19,550
These that, right. 
Like he's locked. 

1197
00:58:19,750 --> 00:58:21,310
So that's where I kind of agree 
with you Davis. 

1198
00:58:21,310 --> 00:58:24,270
And that like in terms of like 
physically being on the field 

1199
00:58:24,270 --> 00:58:27,710
and two wide receiver sets, I 
feel like he's pretty safe. 

1200
00:58:27,710 --> 00:58:32,070
Whereas I can see the argument 
for lock it being pushed out by 

1201
00:58:32,070 --> 00:58:33,870
the end of the year. 
I can see that. 

1202
00:58:33,950 --> 00:58:37,670
I can see that happening lock 
it's also it's possible. 

1203
00:58:38,070 --> 00:58:40,830
Lockett's also at that stage 
where what we talked about 3 

1204
00:58:40,830 --> 00:58:43,910
weeks ago, like where when you 
look at things at an aging 

1205
00:58:43,910 --> 00:58:46,750
curve, it looks nice and gentle,
but it's not nice and gentle 

1206
00:58:46,750 --> 00:58:49,390
when it happens to a single guy 
and that's far more likely to 

1207
00:58:49,390 --> 00:58:51,870
happen. 
So like obviously Metcalf is 

1208
00:58:51,870 --> 00:58:54,790
still on the ascendancy of that.
Like if you told me this was 

1209
00:58:54,790 --> 00:58:57,710
Lockett's like, you know, Larry 
Fitzgerald season where he was 

1210
00:58:57,950 --> 00:59:01,390
100 receptions, 1000 yards and 
then had 600 receptions and we 

1211
00:59:01,390 --> 00:59:04,710
never thought about him again, 
that could that could be. 

1212
00:59:04,750 --> 00:59:07,710
I mean Tyler Lockett's also very
susceptible to like. 

1213
00:59:08,030 --> 00:59:12,110
If he did get hurt, I mean, you 
know, at 31 years old, like his 

1214
00:59:12,110 --> 00:59:14,430
recovery is going to be harder. 
His role could change and he 

1215
00:59:14,430 --> 00:59:16,630
could get Wally pipped pretty 
easy. 

1216
00:59:17,790 --> 00:59:22,030
Like, I just, I I don't, I don't
think any of there's no debate 

1217
00:59:22,030 --> 00:59:25,710
about who DK Metcalf is, right? 
Like it's just it's honestly, 

1218
00:59:25,710 --> 00:59:28,750
his fantasy season will be 
decided by if he scores 8 

1219
00:59:28,750 --> 00:59:30,510
touchdowns, it's going to be a 
bad season. 

1220
00:59:30,630 --> 00:59:32,750
If he scores 14, it's going to 
be a really good one. 

1221
00:59:32,750 --> 00:59:34,910
And that feels like it's that's 
just it. 

1222
00:59:35,540 --> 00:59:38,140
But Matt, can I get a little 
more of your thoughts on just 

1223
00:59:38,140 --> 00:59:39,940
how good Metcalf is? 
Like, do you agree that he's 

1224
00:59:39,940 --> 00:59:42,060
kind of like a B plus wide 
receiver? 

1225
00:59:42,860 --> 00:59:46,700
Yeah, probably just because I 
think he's, you know, you look 

1226
00:59:46,700 --> 00:59:49,220
at his success rates from last 
year, which wasn't. 

1227
00:59:49,900 --> 00:59:52,100
Wasn't one of his best years but
was still a really quality 

1228
00:59:52,100 --> 00:59:53,300
season. 
Like we're talking 80th 

1229
00:59:53,300 --> 00:59:56,420
percentile against man, 77 
percentile against press and 

1230
00:59:56,420 --> 00:59:59,860
32nd against zone, which is 
pretty typical of these like non

1231
00:59:59,860 --> 01:00:02,060
elite X receivers that we've 
talked about. 

1232
01:00:02,340 --> 01:00:04,620
You know, Mike Evans, I think it
fits into that group. 

1233
01:00:04,620 --> 01:00:07,140
Evans is great, like you might 
be like a Hall of Fame player, 

1234
01:00:07,140 --> 01:00:09,940
but I mean, I don't know, that's
actually an interesting debate 

1235
01:00:09,940 --> 01:00:11,380
if he's like a Hall of Fame 
player because I don't think 

1236
01:00:11,380 --> 01:00:13,260
he's ever necessarily been like 
a top five player at the 

1237
01:00:13,260 --> 01:00:15,180
position. 
He's gotta be if he keeps just 

1238
01:00:15,180 --> 01:00:16,620
hitting because. 
He's such a compiler. 

1239
01:00:16,620 --> 01:00:18,540
Yeah, right, he. 
Went two more years and he's in.

1240
01:00:19,430 --> 01:00:23,990
Yeah. 1000 yards at his age with
Baker Mayfield. 

1241
01:00:24,190 --> 01:00:26,710
He should get in for that, yeah.
He should get in for that alone.

1242
01:00:27,190 --> 01:00:29,430
It's gonna. 
It's yeah, no doubt about it. 

1243
01:00:30,270 --> 01:00:31,710
Yeah, yeah. 
Finest accomplishment. 

1244
01:00:32,190 --> 01:00:34,230
But I think that that's kind of 
where I'd view him. 

1245
01:00:34,230 --> 01:00:37,190
If I'm like ranking NFL 
receivers, I think he's like a 

1246
01:00:37,190 --> 01:00:38,790
beep. 
I think both him and Tyler 

1247
01:00:38,790 --> 01:00:42,670
Lockett are probably A to B plus
type receivers as opposed to. 

1248
01:00:43,190 --> 01:00:46,630
Like A plus type receivers, just
and and and I I think that's 

1249
01:00:46,630 --> 01:00:48,670
saying a lot. 
I think they're really, really 

1250
01:00:48,670 --> 01:00:50,150
good players. 
But yeah that's probably where 

1251
01:00:50,150 --> 01:00:53,190
I'd I'd view them. 
Yeah, my, my thing with Metcalf 

1252
01:00:53,190 --> 01:00:57,630
is like, I guess it just feels 
expensive, like I have to pay 

1253
01:00:57,630 --> 01:01:02,070
like early to mid, maybe the 
late sometimes third round price

1254
01:01:02,070 --> 01:01:05,630
for them. 
And you know, it's like if it's 

1255
01:01:05,630 --> 01:01:10,510
not a concentrated offense, I 
mean like how how much better is

1256
01:01:10,510 --> 01:01:13,960
DK Metcalf than Brandon I U. 
Did I? 

1257
01:01:14,280 --> 01:01:16,200
You're asking the wrong person 
that question, but. 

1258
01:01:16,400 --> 01:01:18,600
Am I because I'm not drafting a 
lot of Metca? 

1259
01:01:19,960 --> 01:01:23,800
What I mean I think that's a I 
think that's a bit of like you 

1260
01:01:23,800 --> 01:01:26,640
got it, you got to read the 
boards like Metcalf to me is 

1261
01:01:26,640 --> 01:01:28,800
unquestionably better than 
Ridley. 

1262
01:01:29,080 --> 01:01:31,560
He's not unquestionably better 
to me than Debo. 

1263
01:01:31,760 --> 01:01:34,400
But I think you can play that 
you can just middle those guys 

1264
01:01:34,400 --> 01:01:37,200
when they're on the board 
unquestionably better than 

1265
01:01:37,200 --> 01:01:41,420
Cooper situation because one. 
They're going to be spending the

1266
01:01:41,420 --> 01:01:44,260
entire back half of the season 
playing in a polar vortex and 

1267
01:01:44,260 --> 01:01:47,140
like the worst destruct, like 
the way that stadium is 

1268
01:01:47,140 --> 01:01:49,300
constructed, makes the wind 
swirl around. 

1269
01:01:49,300 --> 01:01:52,140
It's why Cleveland plays a bunch
of games every year with the 

1270
01:01:52,500 --> 01:01:55,540
this is, this is true. 
They go look, they play, they 

1271
01:01:55,540 --> 01:01:58,740
play a bunch of games with 
totals in like 32, like more 

1272
01:01:58,740 --> 01:02:00,420
than any other team. 
They have these super low 

1273
01:02:00,420 --> 01:02:02,460
totals. 
No one, no one here is 

1274
01:02:02,460 --> 01:02:05,460
disrespecting Keenan Allen. 
He's a bad fit for the scoring 

1275
01:02:05,460 --> 01:02:08,750
system in .5 PPR, no bonuses. 
Christian Watson. 

1276
01:02:08,750 --> 01:02:10,510
Sure, Whatever. 
Maybe he's this year's a Monroe 

1277
01:02:10,510 --> 01:02:11,110
St. 
Brown. 

1278
01:02:11,310 --> 01:02:14,230
Maybe he's this year's. 
You know McCall Hardman. 

1279
01:02:14,310 --> 01:02:16,670
Right? 
Judy Obvious question marks. 

1280
01:02:16,710 --> 01:02:18,470
London Obvious volume question 
marks. 

1281
01:02:18,470 --> 01:02:21,150
Weirdly enough, no question 
marks for me, really, about 

1282
01:02:21,150 --> 01:02:25,510
Mclaurin Hopkins, like all these
guys after him have such giant 

1283
01:02:25,510 --> 01:02:28,310
question marks. 
And really your only question 

1284
01:02:28,310 --> 01:02:30,150
mark about Metcalf. 
I I just. 

1285
01:02:30,230 --> 01:02:34,170
I crin cuz I don't even think. 
Like do you really see him 

1286
01:02:34,170 --> 01:02:36,210
seeing less than 100 targets, 
even if it's making? 

1287
01:02:36,290 --> 01:02:37,210
Jig but. 
I don't is. 

1288
01:02:37,210 --> 01:02:39,050
That good. 
It's just that I don't want to 

1289
01:02:40,050 --> 01:02:44,010
I'm with Sam on the you know, 
Sam and I have a very, very 

1290
01:02:44,010 --> 01:02:46,490
strong disagreement. 
But it's like essentially boiled

1291
01:02:46,490 --> 01:02:49,130
down to like if we're on the 
clock in the second round, do we

1292
01:02:49,130 --> 01:02:51,010
want to take Crystal Lava or 
Tony Pollard. 

1293
01:02:51,050 --> 01:02:54,650
And actually not sure at this 
point what else we disagree on 

1294
01:02:54,650 --> 01:02:57,370
with this 2-3 turn situation 
because like. 

1295
01:02:58,060 --> 01:03:00,740
I just don't why should I have 
to rip open this wide receiver 

1296
01:03:00,740 --> 01:03:03,340
tier when I can take a running 
back who normally cost me a 

1297
01:03:03,340 --> 01:03:05,660
second round pick. 
So that's where I'm just like, 

1298
01:03:05,660 --> 01:03:08,020
I'll take Josh Jacobs. 
I'll take reminder Stevenson, 

1299
01:03:08,020 --> 01:03:10,780
I'll take Derrick Henry, I'll 
take Priest Hall. 

1300
01:03:11,860 --> 01:03:14,300
Yeah. 
That's what I do too, but I find

1301
01:03:14,300 --> 01:03:15,820
I still get. 
I'll take Mark Andrews. 

1302
01:03:16,500 --> 01:03:19,180
Yeah, I find I still get more 
than enough Metcalf playing it 

1303
01:03:19,180 --> 01:03:21,380
that way. 
So that's, yeah, that's where 

1304
01:03:21,380 --> 01:03:23,300
I'm at. 
I wanna move on to other guys, 

1305
01:03:23,300 --> 01:03:25,980
but I'm in the same boat where 
if those running backs are all 

1306
01:03:25,980 --> 01:03:28,620
gone, I'm kind of with you 
Davis, that I like Metcalf 

1307
01:03:28,620 --> 01:03:30,620
better than the otherwise 
receivers in this tier, but. 

1308
01:03:30,700 --> 01:03:33,460
I do too, to be clear. 
Yeah, it just so often happens 

1309
01:03:33,460 --> 01:03:37,420
to me that yeah, like I have 
Bree staring at me, or even like

1310
01:03:37,860 --> 01:03:40,940
Mark Andrews and I can set up 
the Lamar Mark Andrews stack 

1311
01:03:40,940 --> 01:03:43,660
that might be staring at me like
it's just hard for me to click 

1312
01:03:43,660 --> 01:03:46,760
Metcalf. 
Just because of where he's 

1313
01:03:46,760 --> 01:03:49,560
placed on the boards, but let's 
move on to to Calvin Ridley. 

1314
01:03:49,560 --> 01:03:52,600
I think he's a super interesting
player to evaluate through the 

1315
01:03:52,600 --> 01:03:55,960
reception perception lens 
because A we haven't seen him in

1316
01:03:56,040 --> 01:03:59,560
a year and a half and B he's 
switching teams, so figuring out

1317
01:03:59,600 --> 01:04:03,200
who he is as an isolated player 
is actually particularly 

1318
01:04:03,200 --> 01:04:06,080
important in this instance. 
So this data, obviously there's 

1319
01:04:06,080 --> 01:04:08,560
no data from 2022 on Ridley he 
didn't play. 

1320
01:04:08,760 --> 01:04:11,960
This data is from his 2020 and 
2021 sample. 

1321
01:04:12,340 --> 01:04:15,580
And Matt, your data shows really
good things for Calvin Ridley. 

1322
01:04:16,100 --> 01:04:18,700
Some reasons why he's popping in
this success rate over expected.

1323
01:04:18,700 --> 01:04:21,860
He faced a high rate of double 
coverage and actually did pretty

1324
01:04:21,860 --> 01:04:25,100
well against it. 
High success rate on challenging

1325
01:04:25,100 --> 01:04:28,380
routes down the field, the 
corner of the 9, the post and 

1326
01:04:28,380 --> 01:04:31,700
just overall very diverse route 
tree, sort of low percentage of 

1327
01:04:31,700 --> 01:04:33,620
the Mickey Mouse gimmicky 
routes. 

1328
01:04:33,620 --> 01:04:35,140
So that that bumps them up as 
well. 

1329
01:04:35,500 --> 01:04:36,820
But just yet really curious 
like. 

1330
01:04:37,670 --> 01:04:39,190
That the Ridley stuff is so 
tricky this year. 

1331
01:04:39,190 --> 01:04:41,590
Really, really curious. 
Like how you're valuing him with

1332
01:04:41,590 --> 01:04:46,790
all this unknowns in 2023. 
Yeah, I thought it just on the 

1333
01:04:47,030 --> 01:04:50,950
Kim and Metcalf to to me are 
like everybody that comes after 

1334
01:04:50,950 --> 01:04:53,070
with the exception of Keenan 
Allen, just cuz he's a tough 

1335
01:04:53,070 --> 01:04:54,750
player. 
Like Davis said to read in the 

1336
01:04:54,750 --> 01:04:56,670
scoring format and also just 
like from an age curve 

1337
01:04:56,670 --> 01:04:59,270
perspective. 
But like these two guys are I 

1338
01:04:59,270 --> 01:05:02,950
think properly valued over 
Samuel and Cooper and Watson and

1339
01:05:02,950 --> 01:05:06,600
Judy just because they're all. 
These two are much better 

1340
01:05:06,600 --> 01:05:09,920
players than any of those guys 
and that includes like Ridley 

1341
01:05:09,920 --> 01:05:12,480
versus Metcalf is interesting 
just because I think they're 

1342
01:05:12,480 --> 01:05:14,880
both kind of the last time we 
the last time we saw Calvin 

1343
01:05:14,880 --> 01:05:18,280
Ridley, he was in that like A 
minus, you know, B, you know, a 

1344
01:05:18,280 --> 01:05:22,280
level tier to me as an 
individual player, great route 

1345
01:05:22,280 --> 01:05:24,640
runner, especially downfield 
like you mentioned. 

1346
01:05:24,640 --> 01:05:28,280
And he's a guy that was doing it
a lot as a true X receiver in 

1347
01:05:28,280 --> 01:05:32,680
2020 and 2021, despite being a 
smaller player, he's just again,

1348
01:05:32,680 --> 01:05:34,360
such a good technician, so 
explosive. 

1349
01:05:35,080 --> 01:05:38,960
He's so hard to to read just 
because is he going to look like

1350
01:05:39,240 --> 01:05:42,440
even in 21 when his efficiency 
sort of went down a little bit 

1351
01:05:42,440 --> 01:05:45,000
like from a yards for target 
standpoint, you know he's 

1352
01:05:45,000 --> 01:05:47,520
playing with what was Matt Ryan.
And like we know what Matt Ryan 

1353
01:05:47,520 --> 01:05:48,840
ended up being the year after 
that. 

1354
01:05:48,840 --> 01:05:51,120
Like I think it's reasonable to 
conclude like he wasn't a great 

1355
01:05:51,120 --> 01:05:55,080
great quarterback and as an 
individual perspective in 21 and

1356
01:05:55,080 --> 01:05:57,120
there were just some small 
mistakes from Ridley and like 

1357
01:05:57,440 --> 01:06:00,240
contested situations and some 
you know some bad drops and 

1358
01:06:00,240 --> 01:06:02,600
stuff that didn't like A5 game 
samples going to mess with you a

1359
01:06:02,600 --> 01:06:04,980
little bit but. 
He's a tough player to read 

1360
01:06:04,980 --> 01:06:08,300
because again, last time we saw 
him, I think he was like an A -,

1361
01:06:08,420 --> 01:06:10,700
a level receiver. 
It's just like, what is he gonna

1362
01:06:10,700 --> 01:06:13,500
be after a year and a half off? 
But I think from a player 

1363
01:06:13,500 --> 01:06:15,100
isolating sample, he's very 
good. 

1364
01:06:15,460 --> 01:06:17,420
And how sticky do you think 
these skills are? 

1365
01:06:17,420 --> 01:06:19,620
Like, you know, just in general,
cuz I think really such a 

1366
01:06:19,980 --> 01:06:23,820
interesting example of, you 
know, he got suspended for 

1367
01:06:23,820 --> 01:06:27,100
something. 
He's missed time not because of 

1368
01:06:27,100 --> 01:06:30,140
the injury, right. 
He's yeah, hopefully, you know 

1369
01:06:30,140 --> 01:06:33,100
he's gonna be very similar to 
the guy that we saw. 

1370
01:06:33,880 --> 01:06:36,920
But at the same time, he's not 
young anymore. 

1371
01:06:36,920 --> 01:06:40,480
He's sneaky old. 
Yeah, he came in really old, 

1372
01:06:40,480 --> 01:06:41,000
right? 
So how? 

1373
01:06:41,360 --> 01:06:43,920
He was. 
He was like, he was like 33 when

1374
01:06:43,920 --> 01:06:47,720
he graduated at Elton. 
Yeah, he turns 29 in December. 

1375
01:06:47,920 --> 01:06:49,920
So yes, yeah, he's he's truly 
sneaky old. 

1376
01:06:49,920 --> 01:06:52,640
Yeah. 
He's he's closer in age to 

1377
01:06:52,640 --> 01:06:55,120
Cooper Cup than DK Metcalf, for 
example. 

1378
01:06:56,240 --> 01:06:58,920
Yeah, yeah. 
So, like, interesting. 

1379
01:06:58,960 --> 01:07:00,720
It just is sort of like the kind
of the. 

1380
01:07:01,370 --> 01:07:04,250
Base rate or like you know pull 
back and and kind of look at the

1381
01:07:04,250 --> 01:07:08,530
macro view here like how risky 
is it to look at a guy's you 

1382
01:07:08,530 --> 01:07:12,210
know 2020 success rate and be 
like whoa it's awesome then now 

1383
01:07:12,210 --> 01:07:17,690
it's entry 2023 just should we 
how much weight would you 

1384
01:07:17,970 --> 01:07:20,890
generally suggest putting on on 
that on that. 

1385
01:07:20,890 --> 01:07:23,450
Evaluation I think. 
I think it's really risky. 

1386
01:07:25,040 --> 01:07:27,600
And like that risk is no and 
it's a kind of an unknowable 

1387
01:07:27,600 --> 01:07:29,240
question. 
I think like I have no idea 

1388
01:07:29,240 --> 01:07:32,920
because we've we've never seen 
really a player take this type 

1389
01:07:32,920 --> 01:07:38,120
of gap like Josh Gordon's big 
season was prior was prior to 

1390
01:07:38,120 --> 01:07:39,960
reception perception. 
So like I don't actually have 

1391
01:07:39,960 --> 01:07:44,320
you know Josh Gordon's numbers 
from like like 2012 and 2013 and

1392
01:07:44,320 --> 01:07:45,920
stuff like that. 
He'd be the only one that. 

1393
01:07:46,720 --> 01:07:48,040
Would be a good example. 
You should. 

1394
01:07:48,080 --> 01:07:51,360
Chart his breakout season that 
seems like a good use of time. 

1395
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:53,680
When, When? 
Yeah, yeah, cuz I definitely 

1396
01:07:53,680 --> 01:07:54,840
have so much of that on my 
hands. 

1397
01:07:57,640 --> 01:07:59,480
I've you don't know. 
You do not know how many like 

1398
01:07:59,480 --> 01:08:02,120
randos get suggested in my 
Discord like on a daily. 

1399
01:08:02,240 --> 01:08:04,320
Basis. 
Oh, I suggested some randos. 

1400
01:08:04,320 --> 01:08:08,200
Brandon Lloyd do Brandon Lloyd. 
I, Brandon Lloyd actually came 

1401
01:08:08,200 --> 01:08:10,080
up in a discussion one. 
But when when I thought there 

1402
01:08:10,080 --> 01:08:13,680
was like some risk that this 
2020 season was gonna get 

1403
01:08:13,680 --> 01:08:16,240
cancelled for COVID, that was 
one of my ideas, was like. 

1404
01:08:17,000 --> 01:08:20,479
Yeah, definitely try to pay the 
bills on like, hey, come 

1405
01:08:20,520 --> 01:08:23,880
subscribe to this website with 
historical data from like Josh 

1406
01:08:23,880 --> 01:08:26,080
Gordon and like Randy Moss's Big
Caesar or. 

1407
01:08:26,080 --> 01:08:28,040
Something like that. 
It would have worked on me. 

1408
01:08:28,600 --> 01:08:29,279
Yeah. 
I mean, yeah. 

1409
01:08:30,080 --> 01:08:32,720
I've already subscribed, but I 
would have maintained my 

1410
01:08:32,880 --> 01:08:36,370
subscription. 
One of these days, one of these 

1411
01:08:36,370 --> 01:08:39,450
days, I would love that but 
never seriously like there was a

1412
01:08:39,450 --> 01:08:42,770
time to and like Gordon came 
back, I think it was in 2017 

1413
01:08:42,770 --> 01:08:44,569
that day. 
That season is in the RP 

1414
01:08:44,569 --> 01:08:48,210
database and it was really good.
And he's a guy that from a skill

1415
01:08:48,210 --> 01:08:50,450
standpoint is different than, is
definitely different than Ridley

1416
01:08:50,450 --> 01:08:53,130
because I think like Ridley's 
more of he definitely kind of 

1417
01:08:53,130 --> 01:08:55,609
has like old man game already 
and that he's a great route 

1418
01:08:55,609 --> 01:08:58,090
runner and he's not like the 
he's an explosive player. 

1419
01:08:58,090 --> 01:09:00,890
But I wouldn't say that. 
He's on like the Olave level of 

1420
01:09:00,890 --> 01:09:02,970
explosive route running, but 
they're kind of in the same 

1421
01:09:02,970 --> 01:09:05,370
bucket. 
So I think it's game that should

1422
01:09:05,450 --> 01:09:07,970
age well. 
It's just the, you know, year 

1423
01:09:07,970 --> 01:09:11,450
and a half layoff that's that's 
tough and I think the risk 

1424
01:09:11,609 --> 01:09:14,609
really isn't baked into his is 
ADP at all. 

1425
01:09:15,170 --> 01:09:17,130
I'm totally with you. 
They're they're just treating 

1426
01:09:17,130 --> 01:09:19,330
him like Calvin Ridley is back 
and is a member of the 

1427
01:09:19,370 --> 01:09:22,490
Jacksonville Jaguars. 
So and like how like how likely 

1428
01:09:22,490 --> 01:09:24,170
is that to be the case cuz I 
think that that. 

1429
01:09:24,760 --> 01:09:27,319
If that if, like we're three 
weeks into the season, he's just

1430
01:09:27,319 --> 01:09:28,520
Calvin. 
Ridley it would be. 

1431
01:09:28,520 --> 01:09:31,840
It would be way weirder. 
It would be way weirder if he 

1432
01:09:31,840 --> 01:09:35,240
came back and was just Calvin 
Ridley, like the same guy that 

1433
01:09:35,240 --> 01:09:37,520
we just saw then. 
If he came back and like, got 

1434
01:09:37,520 --> 01:09:41,040
tackled once and was like, holy 
shit, I've been tackled in two 

1435
01:09:41,040 --> 01:09:43,840
years, that was wild. 
I don't know how about this 

1436
01:09:43,840 --> 01:09:46,080
anymore. 
Like it would be way weirder in 

1437
01:09:46,080 --> 01:09:46,800
my opinion. 
I'm kind. 

1438
01:09:46,800 --> 01:09:49,479
I'm kind of like, I don't know, 
I kind of think I'd be. 

1439
01:09:50,170 --> 01:09:52,970
Not surprised at all because I'm
like, yeah, good players are 

1440
01:09:52,970 --> 01:09:54,810
just good. 
But like good players taking a 

1441
01:09:54,810 --> 01:09:57,810
year and a half off is is, is 
tough to to measure. 

1442
01:09:57,810 --> 01:09:59,770
So I don't know. 
I guess I won't be surprised 

1443
01:09:59,770 --> 01:10:01,210
either way really, which is the 
stupid. 

1444
01:10:01,250 --> 01:10:03,450
Thing. 
Do you have any thoughts, Do you

1445
01:10:03,450 --> 01:10:05,610
have any thoughts on like the, 
you know, you mentioned kind of 

1446
01:10:05,610 --> 01:10:09,170
the old man game and you know 
some parts of wide receivers 

1447
01:10:09,170 --> 01:10:11,370
games maybe aging a little bit 
better like that. 

1448
01:10:11,410 --> 01:10:15,770
That is such an interesting idea
to me because I think we kind of

1449
01:10:15,770 --> 01:10:19,370
get like I'll hear stuff like oh
big wide receivers don't age 

1450
01:10:19,370 --> 01:10:21,310
well. 
And it's like generally because 

1451
01:10:21,310 --> 01:10:23,870
a couple big wide receivers have
have fallen off or like, you 

1452
01:10:23,870 --> 01:10:26,390
know, Common Johnson retired 
really early or some stuff. 

1453
01:10:26,470 --> 01:10:31,070
But you know, some guys seem to 
be aging very well as big wide 

1454
01:10:31,070 --> 01:10:33,230
receivers. 
And then like, you know, Juju 

1455
01:10:33,230 --> 01:10:36,030
Smith, Schuster is aged not even
like old yet and he's already 

1456
01:10:36,310 --> 01:10:39,670
super old, you know. 
So it's like there's it doesn't 

1457
01:10:39,870 --> 01:10:44,310
seem quite as intuitive as that 
is like, oh, it's tough to be a 

1458
01:10:44,310 --> 01:10:47,310
big wide receiver as you age, 
but I do imagine like. 

1459
01:10:47,750 --> 01:10:49,590
You know, we've all kind of 
played basketball with like the 

1460
01:10:49,590 --> 01:10:51,830
old guy at the park who doesn't,
you know, knows everywhere to 

1461
01:10:51,830 --> 01:10:53,430
be. 
He's got the the nice old man 

1462
01:10:53,430 --> 01:10:55,790
game. 
I kind of think there's 

1463
01:10:55,790 --> 01:10:57,790
something to that, right? 
Like certain skills are going to

1464
01:10:57,790 --> 01:11:00,990
age. 
So might be more around skills 

1465
01:11:00,990 --> 01:11:04,230
rather than kind of physical 
archetype. 

1466
01:11:06,070 --> 01:11:08,270
But what what are your thoughts 
on kind of how wide receiver 

1467
01:11:08,270 --> 01:11:11,670
games age? 
I think the fact that we are so.

1468
01:11:13,500 --> 01:11:15,780
Kind of variable and where these
guys line up. 

1469
01:11:16,060 --> 01:11:20,020
It helps a lot with these aging 
curves because like especially 

1470
01:11:20,020 --> 01:11:21,860
the big receivers. 
You know we talked about Larry 

1471
01:11:21,860 --> 01:11:24,580
Fitzgerald got mentioned when 
the title Locket discussion. 

1472
01:11:24,580 --> 01:11:27,220
He's a great example of a guy 
that went from being a big 

1473
01:11:27,220 --> 01:11:29,780
perimeter to receiver beats a 
living like that big slot 

1474
01:11:29,780 --> 01:11:32,980
receiver in like a power slot 
Cooper Cup type of role that we 

1475
01:11:32,980 --> 01:11:34,860
think about now. 
He was kind of one of the first 

1476
01:11:34,860 --> 01:11:37,900
guys playing that position and 
that helped offset some of the. 

1477
01:11:38,500 --> 01:11:40,380
You know that, like the 
explosiveness might have gone 

1478
01:11:40,380 --> 01:11:42,180
down, like running a different 
type of route tree. 

1479
01:11:42,420 --> 01:11:44,300
You know the Alan Robbins thing 
we talked about? 

1480
01:11:44,300 --> 01:11:48,380
Like, I can totally see him 
being an absolutely poor fit as 

1481
01:11:48,380 --> 01:11:51,820
the Rams X receiver at this 
point of his career, but maybe 

1482
01:11:51,820 --> 01:11:56,300
being a decent fit, decent to 
good fit as a big slot receiver 

1483
01:11:56,300 --> 01:11:58,540
for the Steelers this year? 
Like that what he was for them 

1484
01:11:58,540 --> 01:12:00,020
was he kind of a. 
Classic. 

1485
01:12:00,300 --> 01:12:00,980
Yeah. 
True. 

1486
01:12:01,060 --> 01:12:01,900
True. 
Like. 

1487
01:12:02,620 --> 01:12:04,500
They sold us a lot of that 
bullshit about like we can't 

1488
01:12:04,500 --> 01:12:06,740
wait to mix up his route tree 
and move use him at a lot of 

1489
01:12:06,740 --> 01:12:09,140
different positions and then 
like up until he got hurt 

1490
01:12:09,140 --> 01:12:12,140
basically he's he's stuck to the
line of scrimmage and not moving

1491
01:12:12,140 --> 01:12:15,980
around and running like a true 
like a very, very, very vanilla 

1492
01:12:15,980 --> 01:12:17,940
route tree. 
So and you know there's a lot of

1493
01:12:17,940 --> 01:12:19,620
excuses for why that might have 
been whatever. 

1494
01:12:19,620 --> 01:12:23,460
So yeah I think that but but 
he's a guy that might recover a 

1495
01:12:23,460 --> 01:12:25,300
little bit better in in a 
different type of role. 

1496
01:12:25,340 --> 01:12:28,220
But I think another thing I said
earlier was like. 

1497
01:12:28,610 --> 01:12:30,970
People taking the charts of guys
and just put it on Twitter and 

1498
01:12:30,970 --> 01:12:34,250
like, Oh yeah, this this is a 
thing that I think people do 

1499
01:12:34,250 --> 01:12:36,010
that with a guy like DeAndre 
Hopkins right now. 

1500
01:12:36,690 --> 01:12:39,490
And Hopkins was very good last 
year in reception perception, 

1501
01:12:39,490 --> 01:12:42,970
but there's a clear drop off 
from what like his elite seasons

1502
01:12:42,970 --> 01:12:48,250
in like 2019 and 2020. 
So I, I, and I'm willing to say 

1503
01:12:48,250 --> 01:12:51,530
that, like, I have no idea then 
what 2023 is going to look like,

1504
01:12:51,530 --> 01:12:53,450
right? 
Like if it's another season that

1505
01:12:53,450 --> 01:12:56,050
looks like 2022 where he's not 
at his best, but he's still 

1506
01:12:56,050 --> 01:12:58,000
pretty good. 
I guess that wouldn't be 

1507
01:12:58,000 --> 01:13:01,560
surprising, but like, you look 
at a guy like Dez Bryant, 2016, 

1508
01:13:01,560 --> 01:13:06,960
71.1% success rate verse man 
coverage and then 201752 point 

1509
01:13:06,960 --> 01:13:10,200
1%, like a massive drop off 
basically where it looked like 

1510
01:13:10,520 --> 01:13:13,320
he's aging gracefully. 
But then his last season in 

1511
01:13:13,320 --> 01:13:16,400
Dallas was kind of a disaster. 
He gets cut, nobody picks him up

1512
01:13:16,400 --> 01:13:19,040
until like November, he gets 
hurt and then like he's playing 

1513
01:13:19,040 --> 01:13:21,680
for the Ravens, you know, at 
some point in like a bit role. 

1514
01:13:21,680 --> 01:13:24,120
So honestly, it's one of the 
hardest things I think to 

1515
01:13:24,120 --> 01:13:26,880
predict using reception 
perception data is. 

1516
01:13:27,290 --> 01:13:28,970
Like aging curves and when these
guys might. 

1517
01:13:28,970 --> 01:13:31,770
Fall off, yeah. 
The aging stuff is, yeah, is 

1518
01:13:31,770 --> 01:13:34,890
super interesting. 
And sort of along those lines I 

1519
01:13:34,890 --> 01:13:36,170
wanna move on to trail on 
Berkshire. 

1520
01:13:36,170 --> 01:13:38,970
I guess on the other side of 
aging, there's the the year to 

1521
01:13:38,970 --> 01:13:41,250
year 3 breakout aspect of 
fantasy, right, that everyone 

1522
01:13:41,250 --> 01:13:43,490
talks about. 
And I'm really curious with a 

1523
01:13:43,490 --> 01:13:48,290
guy like Burke showing up here 
with a below 4% successor to 

1524
01:13:48,330 --> 01:13:52,330
expected, it's kind of by far 
the worst on this chart. 

1525
01:13:52,330 --> 01:13:54,800
But at the same time. 
He's a young player. 

1526
01:13:55,080 --> 01:13:57,480
He was asked to do something 
completely different in year one

1527
01:13:57,480 --> 01:14:00,360
in Tennessee than he did his 
entire collegiate career. 

1528
01:14:00,360 --> 01:14:03,760
He's basically a slot player in 
college, played off the line a 

1529
01:14:03,760 --> 01:14:07,080
bunch, and the Titans asked him 
to be a true X wide receiver on 

1530
01:14:07,080 --> 01:14:09,320
the outside. 
So you gotta give some credit to

1531
01:14:09,320 --> 01:14:11,440
him for learning something 
completely new. 

1532
01:14:11,680 --> 01:14:13,080
I guess the question for you, 
Matt, is like. 

1533
01:14:13,960 --> 01:14:19,360
How often do we see big jumps 
from year one to year 2 with a 

1534
01:14:19,360 --> 01:14:22,560
player like Burks who doesn't 
show up super well in your data 

1535
01:14:22,560 --> 01:14:25,760
in year one? 
Do you think pricing him in this

1536
01:14:25,760 --> 01:14:29,960
low end wide receiver 3 range is
fair or do you think that's 

1537
01:14:29,960 --> 01:14:34,880
still overvalued? 
I think it's fair, despite the 

1538
01:14:34,880 --> 01:14:37,480
questions, that the clear 
questions I have about his game,

1539
01:14:37,480 --> 01:14:40,080
like you mentioned there were. 
He was playing a totally 

1540
01:14:40,080 --> 01:14:42,600
different position basically in 
the NFL than he was in college. 

1541
01:14:42,600 --> 01:14:46,080
And just to put some numbers 
behind that, you know, in it 

1542
01:14:46,080 --> 01:14:50,080
like it is a year one player he 
lined up almost 75% of his 

1543
01:14:50,080 --> 01:14:53,440
sample snaps were on the line of
scrimmage and was outside for 

1544
01:14:53,440 --> 01:14:56,040
83.5%. 
His final year at Arkansas and 

1545
01:14:56,040 --> 01:14:59,240
reception perception, he took 
80.5% of his snaps in the slot 

1546
01:14:59,240 --> 01:15:02,640
or backfield and was 84% of 
snaps off the line. 

1547
01:15:02,640 --> 01:15:05,800
So like basically a complete 
flip of those two numbers there.

1548
01:15:06,410 --> 01:15:09,010
And that's a really hard 
transition to make for a guy in 

1549
01:15:09,010 --> 01:15:11,930
his rookie season, especially 
somebody who like dealt with 

1550
01:15:11,930 --> 01:15:14,490
offseason issues. 
You know the conditioning stuff 

1551
01:15:14,490 --> 01:15:16,490
he didn't like hit the ground 
running right away. 

1552
01:15:16,490 --> 01:15:18,610
You know he then he gets banged 
up in season. 

1553
01:15:19,730 --> 01:15:23,570
I think he's he's a tough player
to read because of that. 

1554
01:15:23,570 --> 01:15:25,930
There are things he's really 
good at like his slant route, 

1555
01:15:25,930 --> 01:15:28,210
success rates awesome. 
His dig route success rates 

1556
01:15:28,210 --> 01:15:29,410
pretty good too. 
Like he. 

1557
01:15:29,930 --> 01:15:33,890
Runs those big in breaking 
crossers against play action. 

1558
01:15:33,890 --> 01:15:35,930
He's great at that. 
So I don't think he offers 

1559
01:15:35,930 --> 01:15:39,210
nearly the same juice after the 
catch that people thought he did

1560
01:15:39,210 --> 01:15:42,650
this because he kind of had that
like goofy Mickey Mouse role in 

1561
01:15:42,650 --> 01:15:44,810
college. 
But I think there's a chance 

1562
01:15:44,810 --> 01:15:47,810
he's like, I think the ceiling 
on him is lower than people 

1563
01:15:47,810 --> 01:15:50,730
think, but I think he's got a 
chance to be a decent player and

1564
01:15:50,730 --> 01:15:53,280
then. 
Yeah, I think the fact that he 

1565
01:15:53,280 --> 01:15:55,760
hasn't gotten too steamed up is 
probably fair because I think 

1566
01:15:55,760 --> 01:15:57,480
there are real risks with him as
a player. 

1567
01:15:57,840 --> 01:16:00,240
I I've entered the question 
about like guys who have made 

1568
01:16:00,240 --> 01:16:02,360
the jump. 
There are a couple of like DJ 

1569
01:16:02,360 --> 01:16:04,800
Moore was really Rawls the route
runner, had a bad season, took a

1570
01:16:04,800 --> 01:16:06,640
good season. 
Second season jump. 

1571
01:16:06,640 --> 01:16:09,040
You know, I can think of like 
Kenny Golladay is another one 

1572
01:16:09,040 --> 01:16:10,840
who took a big jump in his 
second season. 

1573
01:16:10,840 --> 01:16:13,160
Then third season obviously 
didn't go so well and then 

1574
01:16:13,160 --> 01:16:14,560
Cortland Sutton's like another 
one. 

1575
01:16:15,040 --> 01:16:17,040
There are a lot of guys who just
are what they are. 

1576
01:16:17,620 --> 01:16:20,420
Sometimes you'll see a guy who's
really like Raw as a route 

1577
01:16:20,420 --> 01:16:22,580
runner take that step in year 
two and year three. 

1578
01:16:22,580 --> 01:16:26,540
I think Burks could be that guy 
cuz he shows some signals on on,

1579
01:16:26,540 --> 01:16:28,300
like I said, those in breaking 
routes. 

1580
01:16:28,940 --> 01:16:31,580
But he might be a guy who gets 
kind of pigeonholed and stuck in

1581
01:16:31,580 --> 01:16:33,060
that role, if that makes any 
sense. 

1582
01:16:33,700 --> 01:16:36,180
That makes sense. 
Pat, I know you're bullish on 

1583
01:16:36,180 --> 01:16:39,500
Burks. 
Curious your your thoughts on on

1584
01:16:39,500 --> 01:16:42,980
all that? 
No, I mean, I'm bullish on 

1585
01:16:42,980 --> 01:16:44,500
Burks. 
So I just heard. 

1586
01:16:45,450 --> 01:16:46,650
To me, you were gushing about 
Burke. 

1587
01:16:46,650 --> 01:16:51,170
So I'm. 
That was that was all I heard. 

1588
01:16:51,250 --> 01:16:54,610
All I heard was he was asked to 
do something really hard and he 

1589
01:16:54,610 --> 01:16:57,170
didn't completely flail and and 
shit himself. 

1590
01:16:57,210 --> 01:17:00,210
So goodbye me. 
Yeah, yeah, no, that's that's 

1591
01:17:00,890 --> 01:17:06,370
true. 100% reasonable take off 
of his rookie season. 

1592
01:17:06,970 --> 01:17:10,350
I think that's just. 
Then again, if you look at it, 

1593
01:17:10,350 --> 01:17:12,830
it's like, well, he's still a 
limited player, incomplete 

1594
01:17:12,830 --> 01:17:14,550
player and he always is that 
guy. 

1595
01:17:14,550 --> 01:17:16,310
I think that won't be 
surprising, but I think there's 

1596
01:17:16,310 --> 01:17:19,390
definitely, there's definitely a
chance that he takes that that 

1597
01:17:19,390 --> 01:17:21,510
that jump that we're talking 
about just because he didn't 

1598
01:17:21,510 --> 01:17:24,310
completely shit himself it doing
something very hard and very 

1599
01:17:24,310 --> 01:17:26,590
different from what he was doing
as a as a collegiate player. 

1600
01:17:26,950 --> 01:17:29,270
I'm also encouraged that he 
does, you know, have some clear 

1601
01:17:29,270 --> 01:17:31,990
strength, clear strengths as a 
wide receiver and it's like if 

1602
01:17:31,990 --> 01:17:35,390
he can be good enough just to be
out there all the time, have 

1603
01:17:35,390 --> 01:17:37,590
them design the offense where 
he's seeing a lot of. 

1604
01:17:37,910 --> 01:17:40,110
First reads, getting a lot of 
kind of, you know, maybe some 

1605
01:17:40,110 --> 01:17:45,190
maybe he does get some design 
stuff from time to time and he's

1606
01:17:45,190 --> 01:17:49,270
just out there enough. 
The weaknesses don't even need 

1607
01:17:49,270 --> 01:17:52,550
to be like, they just need to be
not bad enough to where he, you 

1608
01:17:52,550 --> 01:17:54,070
know, is turning them off, 
right? 

1609
01:17:54,630 --> 01:17:56,950
Yeah. 
I think one thing I'm concerned 

1610
01:17:56,950 --> 01:17:59,830
about those that the offense 
might just be a disaster right, 

1611
01:17:59,950 --> 01:18:03,710
which which I think that's I 
think that is a risk. 

1612
01:18:03,950 --> 01:18:06,670
He's a risk a little bit as an 
individual player which is why I

1613
01:18:06,670 --> 01:18:09,420
think like. 
I'm not freaking out at where 

1614
01:18:09,420 --> 01:18:11,540
he, you know, like wide receiver
35. 

1615
01:18:11,540 --> 01:18:12,980
I'm not freaking out to take 
him. 

1616
01:18:12,980 --> 01:18:15,220
I'm not freaking out to fade 
him, I guess at that price, if 

1617
01:18:15,220 --> 01:18:17,900
that makes sense. 
Yeah, I think he moves up cuz it

1618
01:18:17,900 --> 01:18:21,460
apparently Levis is behind Malik
Willis right now. 

1619
01:18:22,300 --> 01:18:25,980
I think the drum beat is going 
to be Tannehill this summer and 

1620
01:18:25,980 --> 01:18:27,820
then. 
I mean, every day that Tannehill

1621
01:18:27,820 --> 01:18:30,140
remains on the roster, it's more
likely they're at least 

1622
01:18:30,140 --> 01:18:32,860
competent. 
Yeah, right, exactly. 

1623
01:18:33,820 --> 01:18:38,280
If that concern disappears. 
And they don't sign Hopkins, I 

1624
01:18:38,280 --> 01:18:39,920
think. 
I think Burks is gonna move up. 

1625
01:18:40,400 --> 01:18:42,640
And so the Hopkins thing is what
I was gonna bring up. 

1626
01:18:42,680 --> 01:18:45,880
Apparently, in the reporting, 
the Titans are sort of the 

1627
01:18:45,880 --> 01:18:48,040
favorite right now. 
They've been more aggressive 

1628
01:18:48,040 --> 01:18:50,000
than New England is what I've 
read. 

1629
01:18:50,000 --> 01:18:55,280
So I like, I think that's like 
an ADP risk, but not like like, 

1630
01:18:55,280 --> 01:18:57,920
I actually kind of hope for 
Burks that Hopkins is there and 

1631
01:18:57,920 --> 01:19:00,320
the offense is better. 
No matter what your thoughts on 

1632
01:19:00,520 --> 01:19:03,280
how would these, how would those
two mesh together? 

1633
01:19:04,490 --> 01:19:07,210
Like, would Burks not playing X?
Or is Hopkins still an X? 

1634
01:19:08,730 --> 01:19:13,010
I I think Hopkins would like 
last we saw him was still as 

1635
01:19:13,010 --> 01:19:15,210
much in in that offense. 
As Davis mentioned earlier like 

1636
01:19:15,210 --> 01:19:18,970
there is a true X receiver he's 
still profiles as that should 

1637
01:19:18,970 --> 01:19:20,970
be. 
His best role is like as an X 

1638
01:19:20,970 --> 01:19:22,690
receiver. 
But like I talked about when 

1639
01:19:22,690 --> 01:19:25,410
these guys get older sometimes 
it helps to to move them out of 

1640
01:19:25,410 --> 01:19:27,490
that position and then that 
could keep Burks in the X 

1641
01:19:27,490 --> 01:19:29,770
receiver position. 
I don't feel the same way as 

1642
01:19:29,770 --> 01:19:32,730
like when Julio Jones got to 
Tennessee and even though that 

1643
01:19:32,730 --> 01:19:35,550
remove didn't work out like. 
In hindsight we know that. 

1644
01:19:35,550 --> 01:19:38,430
But I was like OK, I'm still 
taking a J. 

1645
01:19:38,430 --> 01:19:40,750
Brown because I think I really 
believe bullishly and like a J 

1646
01:19:40,750 --> 01:19:42,750
Brown's talent that way. 
I don't really feel that way 

1647
01:19:42,750 --> 01:19:45,950
with with trailing Burks. 
But I think I think they're 

1648
01:19:45,950 --> 01:19:48,830
these guys can complement each 
other and it could even be from 

1649
01:19:48,830 --> 01:19:51,470
like an alignment standpoint if 
they're gonna have Hopkins go 

1650
01:19:51,470 --> 01:19:52,590
out there and just be the true 
ex. 

1651
01:19:52,590 --> 01:19:56,510
Like it could be good for Burks 
to be an off law an off ball 

1652
01:19:56,510 --> 01:19:59,430
player as opposed to a strictly 
on the line guy like he was in 

1653
01:19:59,430 --> 01:20:01,310
year one. 
And I mean to that point to 

1654
01:20:01,310 --> 01:20:03,240
like. 
I mean, shoot, who? 

1655
01:20:03,240 --> 01:20:05,480
Who else was playing X receiver 
for the Titans last year? 

1656
01:20:05,480 --> 01:20:07,920
And who is gonna play X receiver
other than trailing Burks this 

1657
01:20:07,920 --> 01:20:09,320
year if they don't sign DeAndre 
Hopkins? 

1658
01:20:09,320 --> 01:20:12,720
Like, yeah, it's not gonna be 
Kyle Phillips, it's not gonna be

1659
01:20:12,720 --> 01:20:14,480
Nick Westbrook, Aquina, or 
whatever. 

1660
01:20:14,480 --> 01:20:17,520
Yeah, so I mean. 
Yeah, the depth was bad last 

1661
01:20:17,520 --> 01:20:20,120
year and it got like even. 
Like, at least they had Woods 

1662
01:20:20,120 --> 01:20:23,240
and and Austin Hooper. 
Like those guys are not stud NFL

1663
01:20:23,240 --> 01:20:26,000
players, but they're confident 
they lost both of those guys. 

1664
01:20:26,000 --> 01:20:30,160
Now it's like, man, Chris Moore 
is Chris Moore starting at X, 

1665
01:20:30,160 --> 01:20:32,030
like, like. 
I don't. 

1666
01:20:32,110 --> 01:20:33,670
Yeah. 
Racy, racy, Mcmath, yeah. 

1667
01:20:35,430 --> 01:20:38,470
I want to know. 
Weird out in that Hype Brain I. 

1668
01:20:39,470 --> 01:20:42,710
Want to ask you about Jerry Judy
on this chart because that to 

1669
01:20:42,710 --> 01:20:45,710
me, I've had a tough time with 
his ADP. 

1670
01:20:45,710 --> 01:20:49,350
But it's, you know, I know Sean 
Siegel really likes him. 

1671
01:20:49,990 --> 01:20:53,270
Pete Overset likes him. 
There's kind of been this drum 

1672
01:20:53,270 --> 01:20:55,830
beat around him. 
It's like, you know, he's shown 

1673
01:20:55,830 --> 01:20:57,150
he can do a couple different 
things. 

1674
01:20:57,630 --> 01:20:59,870
But one of the things you always
hear about Jerry Judy is he's a 

1675
01:20:59,870 --> 01:21:04,150
great route runner. 
So to see him here with a -, 1% 

1676
01:21:04,150 --> 01:21:07,750
success rate or expected jumps 
out to me as a red flag because 

1677
01:21:07,790 --> 01:21:09,870
this is supposed to be what this
guy does well. 

1678
01:21:10,190 --> 01:21:14,550
So where are you at on him? 
And it's kind of a crowded or 

1679
01:21:14,550 --> 01:21:17,510
sort of maybe not crowded but 
uncertain situation in Denver 

1680
01:21:17,510 --> 01:21:19,350
with the amount of wide 
receivers they have. 

1681
01:21:20,540 --> 01:21:23,300
Yeah, one of my strongest takes 
last year was that I thought 

1682
01:21:23,300 --> 01:21:25,060
this offense, I didn't think it 
was going to be as bad as it 

1683
01:21:25,060 --> 01:21:26,980
ended up being. 
But I thought this entire skill 

1684
01:21:26,980 --> 01:21:29,420
position room was was super 
overrated. 

1685
01:21:29,420 --> 01:21:31,180
The the Broncos like receiver 
room. 

1686
01:21:31,180 --> 01:21:34,700
I was not not in on any of those
dudes last year, you know, 

1687
01:21:34,700 --> 01:21:36,380
especially where they got 
steamed up to being. 

1688
01:21:36,380 --> 01:21:38,820
And I I had my concerns about 
Russ going from Seattle to 

1689
01:21:38,820 --> 01:21:41,020
Denver and again, those were 
worse than I I thought they 

1690
01:21:41,020 --> 01:21:41,900
could have been. 
So. 

1691
01:21:42,400 --> 01:21:46,440
I'm I've never been the biggest 
like Judy or Sutton fan as 

1692
01:21:46,440 --> 01:21:48,640
individual players. 
I think they've got at best a 

1693
01:21:48,640 --> 01:21:50,200
bunch of like wide receiver twos
there. 

1694
01:21:50,200 --> 01:21:52,200
And you mentioned that the route
running stuff with Jerry Judy. 

1695
01:21:52,320 --> 01:21:55,120
He's still living a lot on his 
like collegiate reputation as a 

1696
01:21:55,120 --> 01:21:58,550
route runner and like. 
The practice videos that even 

1697
01:21:58,550 --> 01:22:00,550
like even last week like. 
There. 

1698
01:22:00,630 --> 01:22:02,390
Literally there. 
Was literally there was 

1699
01:22:02,390 --> 01:22:04,070
literally one going around last 
week. 

1700
01:22:04,070 --> 01:22:07,430
Like, are we ready to talk about
how Judy is gonna finish as a 

1701
01:22:07,430 --> 01:22:09,710
wide receiver one this year? 
And it was just. 

1702
01:22:10,070 --> 01:22:12,030
Him beating a traffic cone like,
yeah. 

1703
01:22:12,670 --> 01:22:14,190
They I might have. 
I might have. 

1704
01:22:14,190 --> 01:22:16,750
Won that route. 
I might have been, might have 

1705
01:22:16,750 --> 01:22:19,550
been like 10 land sharks deep on
the beach, but I did manage to 

1706
01:22:19,550 --> 01:22:23,560
see that one latio. 
Yeah, that. 

1707
01:22:23,560 --> 01:22:25,920
And that's a great example of 
like why you see stuff like that

1708
01:22:25,920 --> 01:22:28,080
and you your brain fills in the 
information like great 

1709
01:22:28,080 --> 01:22:31,320
collegiate route runner. 
He's still beaten, you know, XFL

1710
01:22:31,320 --> 01:22:35,160
players on a field, you know, in
Alabama somewhere or whatever. 

1711
01:22:35,240 --> 01:22:36,880
And you know he's still a great 
router. 

1712
01:22:36,880 --> 01:22:38,440
I don't think he has been as a 
pro. 

1713
01:22:38,680 --> 01:22:41,080
And like, there's a reason he's 
been a volatile up and down 

1714
01:22:41,080 --> 01:22:43,680
player from a production 
standpoint, because he's a 

1715
01:22:43,680 --> 01:22:46,120
volatile up and down player. 
Like, he's not bad. 

1716
01:22:46,120 --> 01:22:49,000
He's got a 70.6% success rate 
versus man coverage. 

1717
01:22:49,000 --> 01:22:52,450
That's a 63rd percentile score. 
That's not bad, but. 49th 

1718
01:22:52,450 --> 01:22:55,050
against press, 5th percentile 
against zone coverage. 

1719
01:22:55,050 --> 01:22:58,330
Some of that can be poor 
offensive design, but a lot of 

1720
01:22:58,330 --> 01:23:01,170
that is because he's not a 
consistent player like he's he's

1721
01:23:01,170 --> 01:23:04,490
very sort of like he's actually 
pretty similar to Amari Cooper 

1722
01:23:04,490 --> 01:23:08,330
who is another like up and down 
producer because he's an up and 

1723
01:23:08,330 --> 01:23:10,690
down player and I think he had a
great season last year, but he's

1724
01:23:10,690 --> 01:23:13,450
had some lesser seasons 
throughout the course of his 

1725
01:23:13,450 --> 01:23:16,570
career and I think some of those
concerns have have stuck with 

1726
01:23:16,570 --> 01:23:19,330
Judy as well. 
So I'm I'm with you that like. 

1727
01:23:20,250 --> 01:23:22,650
Maybe I look like, I don't think
again, you're not going to sit 

1728
01:23:22,770 --> 01:23:25,330
here and like find anywhere 
where I'm saying Jerry Judy is 

1729
01:23:25,330 --> 01:23:28,330
bad, but I there's no way like 
widers. 

1730
01:23:28,330 --> 01:23:30,450
He were 21. 
There are other guys going after

1731
01:23:30,450 --> 01:23:32,210
I'm. 
I'm 100% taking over Judy. 

1732
01:23:32,330 --> 01:23:33,930
Are you in on? 
Are you in on Dolsic? 

1733
01:23:33,930 --> 01:23:36,330
Do you think Dolsic is a good is
a good route runner? 

1734
01:23:37,130 --> 01:23:39,330
I mean, dude, I don't do tight. 
I don't do tight end. 

1735
01:23:39,330 --> 01:23:42,690
I'm just. 
Trying to I know it's like I am.

1736
01:23:42,810 --> 01:23:45,890
I literally have no opinion on 
if Greg Dolsic is a good NFL 

1737
01:23:45,890 --> 01:23:48,010
tight end or whatever. 
It's just like the role seems. 

1738
01:23:48,440 --> 01:23:50,800
Appealing, but I also thought 
the same thing about Alberto and

1739
01:23:50,800 --> 01:23:51,560
I learned. 
My yeah. 

1740
01:23:52,200 --> 01:23:54,840
I mean there's other, I mean we 
got more of a Mims here, we've 

1741
01:23:54,840 --> 01:23:58,080
got Tim Patrick here. 
Like thoughts on on like how 

1742
01:23:58,080 --> 01:24:00,280
protected are Sutton and Judy 
from those guys? 

1743
01:24:00,840 --> 01:24:04,920
Like I don't think they're 
protected at all and and but and

1744
01:24:04,920 --> 01:24:07,720
that's kind of my thing is I 
think it's weird to that like we

1745
01:24:07,720 --> 01:24:10,920
look at this receiver core that 
like you said probably goes 4 

1746
01:24:10,920 --> 01:24:14,160
deep and I don't think any of 
these guys are true number ones.

1747
01:24:14,160 --> 01:24:17,240
I guess that's the that's like 
where you really have to have a 

1748
01:24:17,240 --> 01:24:20,370
stance that. 
Judy is a is not just a good 

1749
01:24:20,370 --> 01:24:22,970
player, but like a true, legit 
#1 receiver. 

1750
01:24:22,970 --> 01:24:26,090
And like we're talking about 
like he's the same quarterback 

1751
01:24:26,090 --> 01:24:27,330
too. 
You know, I think Russ is going 

1752
01:24:27,330 --> 01:24:30,810
to have a good, a good, a better
season this year than he did 

1753
01:24:30,810 --> 01:24:32,890
last year. 
Like, I think Sean Payton is an 

1754
01:24:32,890 --> 01:24:35,050
offensive elevator. 
And I mean certainly the 

1755
01:24:35,050 --> 01:24:38,650
coaching change from Nate 
Hackett to Sean Payton is is 

1756
01:24:38,650 --> 01:24:41,690
dramatic. 
But I think Marvin Mims is was a

1757
01:24:41,690 --> 01:24:44,690
really good prospect and like 
could be a guy that hits the 

1758
01:24:44,690 --> 01:24:46,970
ground running as a speed slot 
receiver. 

1759
01:24:47,470 --> 01:24:49,910
A lot of the speed slot receiver
stuff is what Jerry Judy's been 

1760
01:24:49,910 --> 01:24:53,190
best at, too. 
I think Cortland Sutton is, he's

1761
01:24:53,310 --> 01:24:55,510
was overrated last year, but I 
almost think, like he's getting 

1762
01:24:55,510 --> 01:25:01,550
too discounted this year. 
Like he's a fine average, maybe 

1763
01:25:01,550 --> 01:25:05,030
slightly below average starting 
X receiver, but he's probably 

1764
01:25:05,030 --> 01:25:07,830
the only X receiver on the 
roster, so I think it's. 

1765
01:25:07,830 --> 01:25:09,310
Cuz he's not on the site yet, is
he? 

1766
01:25:09,790 --> 01:25:12,310
If you did him, no he's not a 
guy I've done from this past 

1767
01:25:12,310 --> 01:25:14,750
year but his prior seasons are 
on on the site. 

1768
01:25:14,750 --> 01:25:17,310
There's a few I have like from 
the in season charting data that

1769
01:25:17,310 --> 01:25:21,230
I that I did so like 3-4 games I
think are in the in season 

1770
01:25:21,230 --> 01:25:23,390
tracker and yeah they weren't 
they weren't very good but 

1771
01:25:23,390 --> 01:25:25,910
neither were neither was his 
2021 season. 

1772
01:25:26,430 --> 01:25:30,310
In open score, Jerry Judy's 11th
and Sutton's 12th, so they were 

1773
01:25:30,470 --> 01:25:33,510
like dead even in that metric 
last year. 

1774
01:25:34,220 --> 01:25:35,300
So yeah, Strange. 
I don't know. 

1775
01:25:35,300 --> 01:25:38,220
I've been wondering if the 
Sutton is dead now. 

1776
01:25:38,340 --> 01:25:40,380
Narrative has kind of jumped the
shark a little bit. 

1777
01:25:41,100 --> 01:25:45,220
I think it's jumped the Shark 
almost just like he was a true 

1778
01:25:45,220 --> 01:25:47,620
#1 elite player ready to break 
out with a good quarterback. 

1779
01:25:47,620 --> 01:25:49,860
Had jumped the Shark last year. 
I think there's a truth there. 

1780
01:25:49,860 --> 01:25:52,460
It's probably somewhere in the 
middle, which is that I don't 

1781
01:25:52,460 --> 01:25:54,530
think like. 
It's actually funny. 

1782
01:25:54,530 --> 01:25:57,570
I posted the I I did the thing I
I said I didn't like where I 

1783
01:25:57,570 --> 01:26:00,410
just posted the chart with and 
like made a joke about it type 

1784
01:26:00,410 --> 01:26:02,890
of thing on Twitter where like 
they had there was that headline

1785
01:26:02,890 --> 01:26:06,290
that they had Cortland Sutton 
looking at Michael Thomas tape 

1786
01:26:06,770 --> 01:26:09,890
from 2019 or whatever. 
And then you look at like the 

1787
01:26:09,890 --> 01:26:13,530
route, the only really route 
that that that Cortland Sutton 

1788
01:26:13,530 --> 01:26:15,090
runs really well is like the 
slant route. 

1789
01:26:15,730 --> 01:26:18,170
So I think it is kind of 
interesting at least to think 

1790
01:26:18,170 --> 01:26:20,460
like if there's going to be. 
Yeah, right. 

1791
01:26:20,460 --> 01:26:22,660
There's gonna be like an X 
receiver just running a bunch of

1792
01:26:22,660 --> 01:26:25,340
in breaking short routes. 
Like that is actually the thing 

1793
01:26:25,340 --> 01:26:27,100
that Cortland Son does really 
well. 

1794
01:26:27,100 --> 01:26:28,820
He's not really a vertical X 
receiver. 

1795
01:26:28,820 --> 01:26:33,620
So I think the fact that, yeah, 
like the ATP assumes that Jerry 

1796
01:26:33,620 --> 01:26:35,700
Judy's just so much better than 
these guys, I don't know if 

1797
01:26:35,700 --> 01:26:38,420
that's really the truth. 
Yeah, All right. 

1798
01:26:38,420 --> 01:26:42,380
Speaking of Speaking of 
inconsistent guys, if Jerry 

1799
01:26:42,380 --> 01:26:44,820
Judy's inconsistent, I don't 
know what we call Darius. 

1800
01:26:44,820 --> 01:26:47,780
Tony, he, he shows up here on 
this chart. 

1801
01:26:47,860 --> 01:26:51,740
Sam, first of all, how dare you?
Sorry Terry. 

1802
01:26:51,780 --> 01:26:55,020
Tony's very consistent. 
He never plays and he gets open 

1803
01:26:55,020 --> 01:26:58,260
when he does. 
It's incredibly consistent. 

1804
01:26:58,420 --> 01:26:59,860
He's. 
Consistent of playing less than 

1805
01:26:59,860 --> 01:27:02,700
20% of the snaps. 
But yeah, Tony I think is one of

1806
01:27:02,700 --> 01:27:06,020
the the most polarizing guys in 
fancy this year. 

1807
01:27:06,100 --> 01:27:08,460
I don't get it at all why he's 
going this high. 

1808
01:27:09,580 --> 01:27:12,420
So maybe I'm just, you know, 
confirming my biases here with 

1809
01:27:12,420 --> 01:27:15,180
looking at this chart. 
But yeah, Matt, can you talk 

1810
01:27:15,180 --> 01:27:17,620
through, can you talk through 
Tony, I guess my question for 

1811
01:27:17,620 --> 01:27:19,020
you like more specifically is 
like. 

1812
01:27:19,430 --> 01:27:21,670
I think Tony is perceived as 
this guy that has this 

1813
01:27:21,750 --> 01:27:25,310
unbelievable ceiling because in 
my mind because he has cool 

1814
01:27:25,310 --> 01:27:28,070
highlights and cuz he plays with
Patrick Mahomes, but have you 

1815
01:27:28,070 --> 01:27:30,110
seen anything in the data or 
your chart? 

1816
01:27:30,110 --> 01:27:32,430
You're also talking him up a 
lot, is their number one. 

1817
01:27:33,220 --> 01:27:36,740
That's true, but like. 
But like, are they really? 

1818
01:27:36,740 --> 01:27:38,060
Or is that? 
Are they really? 

1819
01:27:38,060 --> 01:27:40,940
Or is that like extrapolating 
some, like positive quotes is 

1820
01:27:40,940 --> 01:27:42,420
like they're really high on his 
talent. 

1821
01:27:42,420 --> 01:27:44,820
But does that really, really 
mean they view him as like a 

1822
01:27:44,820 --> 01:27:47,020
true #1 receiver? 
I think when you really 

1823
01:27:47,020 --> 01:27:49,900
critically read what they've 
said, that's not necessarily the

1824
01:27:49,900 --> 01:27:52,060
case. 
It's the same organization that 

1825
01:27:52,060 --> 01:27:54,860
keeps posting. 
They keep posting Justin Ross 

1826
01:27:54,860 --> 01:27:57,340
clips, so I don't think. 
I think we can shake it all with

1827
01:27:57,340 --> 01:27:59,380
a grain of salt. 
Yeah, they're they're clearly 

1828
01:27:59,380 --> 01:28:02,220
trying to you know get the get 
the clicks and and stuff like 

1829
01:28:02,220 --> 01:28:04,740
that from somebody in their in 
their social media department 

1830
01:28:04,740 --> 01:28:06,540
has to be like on fantasy. 
It has to be like on. 

1831
01:28:06,540 --> 01:28:06,940
Dime. 
No. 

1832
01:28:06,940 --> 01:28:08,060
No. 
Someone. 

1833
01:28:08,140 --> 01:28:10,140
Someone in their social media 
department had to have gone to 

1834
01:28:10,140 --> 01:28:11,580
Clemson. 
They had had to have. 

1835
01:28:11,740 --> 01:28:13,140
It has to be a Clemson 
connection. 

1836
01:28:13,140 --> 01:28:16,140
That's the only explanation for 
how there's a new Justin Ross 

1837
01:28:16,140 --> 01:28:19,860
quote or video once a week for a
guy who's like 19 string. 

1838
01:28:20,940 --> 01:28:24,020
Yeah, I mean. 
Either either a deep dynasty. 

1839
01:28:24,140 --> 01:28:25,900
Sick or winter club. 
Maybe he's good. 

1840
01:28:25,900 --> 01:28:31,380
Maybe there's one chief that 
Davis won't draft the history of

1841
01:28:31,380 --> 01:28:33,060
the organization. 
It's Justin Ross. 

1842
01:28:33,580 --> 01:28:37,500
So I drafted Clyde, I've drafted
Clyde, I've drafted Generic 

1843
01:28:37,500 --> 01:28:39,420
Prince more times and I've taken
Justin Ross. 

1844
01:28:40,740 --> 01:28:44,900
Oh God, Matt, I'm hoping you're 
stuck with Tony it. 

1845
01:28:44,940 --> 01:28:46,620
Might be a good take. 
Through the data. 

1846
01:28:46,780 --> 01:28:50,540
Could you or could you squint 
with Tony's profile and like see

1847
01:28:50,540 --> 01:28:52,580
like if you were forced to make 
the case for him being? 

1848
01:28:52,980 --> 01:28:55,100
A wide receiver one like could 
you even do it? 

1849
01:28:55,100 --> 01:28:57,100
Or like, I just wanna know how 
bad is it? 

1850
01:28:57,420 --> 01:29:01,100
Yeah, How does cuz we're I think
are you on Tony Davis, are you 

1851
01:29:01,100 --> 01:29:03,620
drafting him? 
Just when I take Mahomes that 

1852
01:29:03,620 --> 01:29:07,860
that's I probably, I probably 
literally through like 300 teams

1853
01:29:07,900 --> 01:29:10,980
like probably have no Tony 
without Mahomes. 

1854
01:29:11,460 --> 01:29:14,260
So we're all gonna be pretty 
underweight, Tony. 

1855
01:29:14,620 --> 01:29:17,260
Well, my home is my second most 
drafted quarterback, so I'll 

1856
01:29:17,260 --> 01:29:19,540
probably overweight Tony. 
OK. 

1857
01:29:19,540 --> 01:29:22,820
All right. 
Okay. 

1858
01:29:23,740 --> 01:29:25,540
All right. 
So two of us will be 

1859
01:29:25,540 --> 01:29:29,660
underweight, Tony. 
And how does he like Matt? 

1860
01:29:29,660 --> 01:29:31,180
Just tell us, like how he buries
us. 

1861
01:29:31,180 --> 01:29:32,940
That's kind of what I'm. 
I wanna hear. 

1862
01:29:33,900 --> 01:29:37,780
He would have to be doing stuff 
that we have never seen him do 

1863
01:29:38,100 --> 01:29:40,500
like he would have to. 
He would have to be playing and 

1864
01:29:40,780 --> 01:29:44,420
excelling in a role that we have
not seen him play or excel in as

1865
01:29:44,420 --> 01:29:48,020
an NFL player or even his final 
year at Florida like he's. 

1866
01:29:48,550 --> 01:29:51,390
I said in his collegiate 
evaluation that like his NFL 

1867
01:29:51,390 --> 01:29:54,390
team was going to be starting 
from square one as a route 

1868
01:29:54,390 --> 01:29:56,710
runner. 
And I mean I think that's more 

1869
01:29:57,750 --> 01:29:59,830
we talk about Mickey Mouse 
routes like he's the king of 

1870
01:29:59,830 --> 01:30:02,070
Mickey Mouse routes. 
I couldn't care less about what 

1871
01:30:02,070 --> 01:30:06,590
he's doing on 17.1% of his 
routes are screens, 14.5% of his

1872
01:30:06,590 --> 01:30:08,510
routes are, are are flat routes 
like. 

1873
01:30:08,990 --> 01:30:11,750
And he has not shown the skills 
at all that he's going to be 

1874
01:30:12,150 --> 01:30:16,030
like a Pressman coverage beater 
at at the NFL level at this 

1875
01:30:16,030 --> 01:30:18,880
point I think. 
He showed a couple of games and 

1876
01:30:18,880 --> 01:30:20,520
we're talking again. 
We're talking about a player 

1877
01:30:20,520 --> 01:30:23,160
that, like, barely ever plays. 
So I made this. 

1878
01:30:23,400 --> 01:30:26,720
I've said this at the beginning 
of his profile from last year, 

1879
01:30:26,720 --> 01:30:31,240
that like, Tony hits the mark of
a full reception perception 

1880
01:30:31,240 --> 01:30:34,040
sample, and that, like, I got 
eight games on him, but that 

1881
01:30:34,040 --> 01:30:37,400
eight games contained 127 snaps 
and 76 rounds. 

1882
01:30:37,840 --> 01:30:41,800
Say like 6 routes. 
Yeah, yeah, so, so like, keep 

1883
01:30:41,800 --> 01:30:43,360
that in mind. 
This guy barely ever plays, but 

1884
01:30:43,640 --> 01:30:46,210
even. 
In his rookie season, he had a 

1885
01:30:46,210 --> 01:30:49,450
decent success rate verse zone, 
but some of that is on the 

1886
01:30:49,450 --> 01:30:52,450
Mickey Mouse routes. 
And again, there's nothing that 

1887
01:30:52,450 --> 01:30:55,570
that he's shown as an NFL player
that like he can go out and like

1888
01:30:55,570 --> 01:30:59,370
line up outside and beat 
pressman coverage, period like 

1889
01:30:59,370 --> 01:31:01,050
that. 
He would have to be doing stuff 

1890
01:31:01,050 --> 01:31:03,890
that we have never seen him do, 
which maybe that's possible, but

1891
01:31:04,170 --> 01:31:06,610
I really don't even think the 
Chiefs are are banking on that. 

1892
01:31:06,610 --> 01:31:08,370
I think that's kind of like 
nonsense. 

1893
01:31:08,690 --> 01:31:11,010
Can I pitch you at some content 
for the site? 

1894
01:31:12,100 --> 01:31:14,260
I think YouTube shorts are kind 
of blowing up right now. 

1895
01:31:14,260 --> 01:31:17,620
TikTok obviously taking off. 
You should just do his Super 

1896
01:31:17,620 --> 01:31:19,540
Bowl. 
Just chart his Super Bowl 

1897
01:31:19,540 --> 01:31:22,300
routes. 
As a quick talk, hey 5 routes. 

1898
01:31:22,900 --> 01:31:25,380
His Super Bowl MVP caliber 
performance. 

1899
01:31:25,540 --> 01:31:27,100
Totally. 
Things inside the lab. 

1900
01:31:28,080 --> 01:31:30,760
Yeah, that pun returns you chart
punt returns cuz that was a 

1901
01:31:30,760 --> 01:31:32,240
really key punt return. 
You might. 

1902
01:31:32,320 --> 01:31:34,320
Have I'm closer. 
I'm closer to chart and tight 

1903
01:31:34,320 --> 01:31:38,280
ends than than punt returns. 
And I will and I will never 

1904
01:31:38,280 --> 01:31:41,040
chart a tight ends. 
Can we can we can we end can we 

1905
01:31:41,040 --> 01:31:44,440
end the show with Matt dunking 
on Alan Lazard who was the worst

1906
01:31:44,440 --> 01:31:47,600
pick on the board last year and 
somehow is trying to is trying 

1907
01:31:47,600 --> 01:31:49,440
to do people into also being the
worst pick? 

1908
01:31:49,440 --> 01:31:52,570
Again, walking matters 3. 
I think. 

1909
01:31:52,850 --> 01:31:54,690
Bro, blocking matters. 
That's why he's gonna get on the

1910
01:31:54,770 --> 01:31:55,450
field. 
That's fun. 

1911
01:31:55,570 --> 01:31:58,490
Blocking matters and like 
listening to Aaron Rodgers, some

1912
01:31:58,810 --> 01:32:01,410
like, some Up the Loose Change 
documentary at lunch every 

1913
01:32:01,410 --> 01:32:03,690
single day matters. 
Like, I think that's how Alan 

1914
01:32:03,690 --> 01:32:07,330
Lazzard ended up in New York. 
Jet and if as we're wrapping up,

1915
01:32:07,530 --> 01:32:09,490
if we can get your thoughts on 
Dobbs too in that scene. 

1916
01:32:09,490 --> 01:32:13,570
Yeah, that was gonna be the one 
because in sort of the, I don't 

1917
01:32:13,570 --> 01:32:17,290
know, there's a Dobbs contingent
and I I just like, don't get it.

1918
01:32:17,290 --> 01:32:20,050
I got it when he was really 
cheap, but like, I don't know 

1919
01:32:20,050 --> 01:32:22,640
the the. 
Yards per route run stuff 

1920
01:32:22,640 --> 01:32:26,560
doesn't look great on him. 
You know he was day three guy, 

1921
01:32:26,560 --> 01:32:30,400
they brought in Jaden Reed and 
day two like the charting stuff 

1922
01:32:30,400 --> 01:32:33,560
on him doesn't look great either
on Matt stuff or the open score 

1923
01:32:33,560 --> 01:32:35,760
stuff. 
So I guess Dobbs the guy that I 

1924
01:32:35,760 --> 01:32:37,800
have not gotten the price rise 
at all. 

1925
01:32:37,800 --> 01:32:39,880
But yeah, Matt, curious what you
thought of his Ricky year. 

1926
01:32:40,880 --> 01:32:43,720
I think he showed as a day three
receiver that he could be like a

1927
01:32:43,720 --> 01:32:45,880
functional NFL receiver, which 
is. 

1928
01:32:46,490 --> 01:32:48,250
Which is pretty good. 
Like if you're getting a guy on 

1929
01:32:48,250 --> 01:32:51,370
day three who ends up being your
longterm, longterm wide receiver

1930
01:32:51,370 --> 01:32:53,850
three. 
I think that's probably the best

1931
01:32:54,010 --> 01:32:55,610
you know, not most ideal fit for
him. 

1932
01:32:55,610 --> 01:32:57,450
But. 
And Christian Watson is much 

1933
01:32:57,450 --> 01:32:59,410
better. 
And I have my question about 

1934
01:32:59,410 --> 01:33:01,290
Christian Watson. 
But I think he's much better and

1935
01:33:01,290 --> 01:33:03,650
I think Jaden Reed is probably a
better receiver longterm. 

1936
01:33:04,130 --> 01:33:05,170
So yeah, I'm. 
I'm not. 

1937
01:33:05,210 --> 01:33:08,610
I think Dobbs showed he can play
in the NFL as a first year 

1938
01:33:08,610 --> 01:33:10,250
receiver. 
But he's also, I don't think he 

1939
01:33:10,250 --> 01:33:13,450
showed anything that would lead 
you to believe he's a longterm 

1940
01:33:13,450 --> 01:33:17,700
highend starter by any means. 
Yeah, that's not right. 

1941
01:33:17,700 --> 01:33:20,020
And thoughts on Lazard is kind 
of because he's going to be out.

1942
01:33:20,100 --> 01:33:22,940
I mean, you know, Roger's going 
to make sure he's out there. 

1943
01:33:24,660 --> 01:33:28,820
Yeah, man, I I think blocking. 
I think blocking matters, bro. 

1944
01:33:28,940 --> 01:33:30,660
That's what I'll say about Al 
Lazar. 

1945
01:33:32,300 --> 01:33:34,540
You said you don't do tight 
ends, but yet you've. 

1946
01:33:34,540 --> 01:33:39,700
Charted, but he's the he's the 
he's like the closest guy he 

1947
01:33:39,700 --> 01:33:41,100
has. 
He has a pretty similar role to 

1948
01:33:41,100 --> 01:33:43,300
like a tight end I think. 
Then like what? 

1949
01:33:43,720 --> 01:33:46,480
We think about with these guys. 
League and inline snaps, right? 

1950
01:33:46,840 --> 01:33:51,320
Yeah, yeah, I think he did. 
And I think that actually he's 

1951
01:33:51,320 --> 01:33:55,080
actually not bad in that role 
because he's fine on like some 

1952
01:33:55,080 --> 01:33:57,920
shorter routes and he's, you 
know, he's got good hands and he

1953
01:33:57,920 --> 01:34:00,240
wins in contested situations and
he is a good blocker. 

1954
01:34:00,240 --> 01:34:03,400
But I think he ideally is like a
wide receiver three, like a 

1955
01:34:03,400 --> 01:34:06,520
third guy in the passing game. 
But I don't know the fact that 

1956
01:34:06,520 --> 01:34:07,800
Corey Davis is still on that 
roster. 

1957
01:34:07,800 --> 01:34:10,520
I'm like Davis is a much better 
receiver than Al Lazard, so 

1958
01:34:11,080 --> 01:34:15,300
we'll see about that. 
Yeah, once underdog. 

1959
01:34:15,980 --> 01:34:17,900
Any thoughts on just him, What 
we're talking about blocking 

1960
01:34:17,900 --> 01:34:20,460
dudes? 
Who, who, who? 

1961
01:34:20,500 --> 01:34:21,540
We say. 
Gabriel Davis. 

1962
01:34:23,060 --> 01:34:27,620
Geez, yeah, I think that was a 
rough price tag on Davis last 

1963
01:34:27,620 --> 01:34:30,740
year, but I think almost like 
it's a little bit too far. 

1964
01:34:30,740 --> 01:34:34,660
The other direction now where 
like him at wide receiver 41 is 

1965
01:34:34,660 --> 01:34:38,060
like Per is a perfectly good, 
like capable pick. 

1966
01:34:38,060 --> 01:34:39,940
Cuz I think he's shown he's on 
that. 

1967
01:34:40,350 --> 01:34:42,430
Devante Parker acts as ex 
receivers. 

1968
01:34:42,430 --> 01:34:45,750
I talked about where he's 
actually a really good downfield

1969
01:34:45,750 --> 01:34:48,390
route runner and he's good in 
contested situations. 

1970
01:34:48,390 --> 01:34:51,390
He's just not a true #2 receiver
like period and I thought that 

1971
01:34:51,390 --> 01:34:52,470
last year. 
I think that now. 

1972
01:34:52,470 --> 01:34:55,310
But he's a guy that can win 
vertically. 

1973
01:34:55,310 --> 01:34:57,830
He can win on some of like we 
talked about, like give us guys 

1974
01:34:57,830 --> 01:34:59,990
that went on 9 routes, give us 
guys that can win down the 

1975
01:34:59,990 --> 01:35:01,670
field. 
He's he can. 

1976
01:35:01,670 --> 01:35:04,550
He's definitely that guy. 
Like, he's not terrible. 

1977
01:35:04,710 --> 01:35:09,210
He was just like really? 
Grossly overpriced last year, so

1978
01:35:09,210 --> 01:35:10,970
I think the truth is somewhere 
in the middle with him. 

1979
01:35:12,090 --> 01:35:13,970
Yeah, that's fair. 
And it seems, yeah, it seems 

1980
01:35:13,970 --> 01:35:17,050
like you mentioned like he's a 
guy that in fantasy, maybe we 

1981
01:35:17,050 --> 01:35:19,330
can be more excited about them. 
What this charting shows, he 

1982
01:35:19,330 --> 01:35:21,330
plays on the Bills. 
I guess the only way you get 

1983
01:35:21,330 --> 01:35:24,170
buried here, right, is if they 
bring in Hopkins and that Davis 

1984
01:35:24,170 --> 01:35:25,330
doesn't play anymore in two 
others. 

1985
01:35:25,330 --> 01:35:26,530
Like that's the only way I see 
you. 

1986
01:35:26,530 --> 01:35:26,970
Really. 
Yeah. 

1987
01:35:26,970 --> 01:35:30,050
Like, if this quarterback is not
Josh Allen, that's tough. 

1988
01:35:30,170 --> 01:35:32,770
But his quarterback is Josh 
Allen, so it's it's fine where 

1989
01:35:32,770 --> 01:35:34,730
he's where he's going and 
viewing him that way. 

1990
01:35:36,280 --> 01:35:38,680
Awesome. 
Well, we would love to, I mean, 

1991
01:35:38,840 --> 01:35:41,200
chat about wide receivers all 
day here. 

1992
01:35:41,200 --> 01:35:42,320
I could do this for two more 
hours. 

1993
01:35:42,440 --> 01:35:45,240
But yeah, we basically have 
Matt. 

1994
01:35:45,240 --> 01:35:49,040
That was a ton of fun. 
I know you mentioned that you're

1995
01:35:49,040 --> 01:35:51,640
still charting some players. 
I guess tell the people, what 

1996
01:35:51,640 --> 01:35:54,760
else is coming out on reception 
perception the next couple 

1997
01:35:54,760 --> 01:35:55,980
weeks? 
Yes. 

1998
01:35:55,980 --> 01:35:58,460
A lot of like some of the bigger
name veterans who are not 

1999
01:35:58,940 --> 01:36:02,380
already on the site will be up 
on the site next Monday and then

2000
01:36:02,380 --> 01:36:06,300
I'm going to try to hit 80 
players Like like I said, you 

2001
01:36:06,300 --> 01:36:08,500
know I don't I don't have time 
necessarily to go back and chart

2002
01:36:08,500 --> 01:36:12,620
Josh Gordon's like epic season. 
But I'm I'm trying to hit 80 

2003
01:36:12,620 --> 01:36:15,380
players added to the site 
between NFL players and rookies 

2004
01:36:15,380 --> 01:36:18,300
by week 1. 
So robust database that 

2005
01:36:18,300 --> 01:36:21,060
continues to be added to will is
what you can find at reception 

2006
01:36:21,060 --> 01:36:22,740
perception.com. 
But like I said a lot of the. 

2007
01:36:23,350 --> 01:36:27,270
Cooper Cup type players and then
some guys like Christian Kirk 

2008
01:36:27,270 --> 01:36:30,390
and Chris Godwin, like all 
across the board, guys who 

2009
01:36:30,390 --> 01:36:33,390
aren't up on the site yet. 
Next Monday and the entire next 

2010
01:36:33,390 --> 01:36:35,470
week is when I'm gonna try to 
hit those big name veterans. 

2011
01:36:35,950 --> 01:36:36,990
Cool. 
Can I ask one thing? 

2012
01:36:36,990 --> 01:36:39,430
Are we gonna get Rasheed Shaheed
in reception Perception? 

2013
01:36:40,310 --> 01:36:43,670
I would almost guarantee it that
he if I'm hitting eighty guys 

2014
01:36:43,670 --> 01:36:46,630
he's gonna he cuz there he's in 
the in season tracker right now 

2015
01:36:46,630 --> 01:36:49,780
the two like 2 games he had. 
Last year and I kind of think 

2016
01:36:49,780 --> 01:36:52,380
he's pretty good. 
Like I think Olave is in a great

2017
01:36:52,380 --> 01:36:56,140
situation where the he has a 
functional quarterback and the 

2018
01:36:56,140 --> 01:37:00,100
guys around him are just good 
enough to keep defense. 

2019
01:37:00,100 --> 01:37:02,660
Like even with, with or without 
Michael Thomas, like I think 

2020
01:37:02,660 --> 01:37:05,380
Shaheed and Juan Johnson, like 
Foster Moreau and all the 

2021
01:37:05,380 --> 01:37:08,100
running backs to got there are 
just good enough for the offense

2022
01:37:08,100 --> 01:37:11,580
to be of high quality, but not 
enough to threaten his like, 

2023
01:37:11,580 --> 01:37:13,660
target share basically. 
Yeah, exactly. 

2024
01:37:14,300 --> 01:37:15,860
I like that. 
Pat, what? 

2025
01:37:15,860 --> 01:37:18,020
What's going on for you at 
Legendary Upside? 

2026
01:37:19,490 --> 01:37:22,810
Took some time off last week so 
gonna be writing and trying to 

2027
01:37:22,810 --> 01:37:25,370
get an article out by the end of
the week on some running back 

2028
01:37:25,370 --> 01:37:27,570
success rate stuff. 
Wrap up that series I'm doing 

2029
01:37:27,570 --> 01:37:30,850
over there, but you know, best 
ball rankings, underdog 

2030
01:37:30,850 --> 01:37:33,610
rankings. 
Been updated regularly so go 

2031
01:37:33,610 --> 01:37:36,850
check them out. 
So yeah, a lot of drafting, a 

2032
01:37:36,850 --> 01:37:39,970
lot of drafting coming up. 
Good stuff, Davis. 

2033
01:37:40,290 --> 01:37:42,330
Same to you, a lot of drafting. 
Same deal. 

2034
01:37:42,330 --> 01:37:46,410
A lot of drafting posted best 
ball ranks on the Patreon take 

2035
01:37:46,410 --> 01:37:48,210
cast have dynasty ranks there as
well. 

2036
01:37:48,210 --> 01:37:52,090
But to go do a dynasty pod with 
Pat, where we're finishing up 

2037
01:37:52,090 --> 01:37:58,010
our magnum opus on dynasty 
rankings and yeah, we'll be the 

2038
01:37:58,050 --> 01:38:00,610
Sports Good Famous football 
podcast feed is going to be a 

2039
01:38:00,610 --> 01:38:03,890
lot more active than the next 60
days because we're getting down 

2040
01:38:03,890 --> 01:38:06,370
to the nitty gritty and we're 
we're very soon. 

2041
01:38:06,700 --> 01:38:09,380
We're about to leave the theater
of the absurd that has been this

2042
01:38:09,380 --> 01:38:13,020
program for the last six months 
where we just think about what 

2043
01:38:13,020 --> 01:38:15,460
Adp's should be. 
And now we're about to get real 

2044
01:38:15,460 --> 01:38:18,420
life events of real life humans 
interacting and then dictating 

2045
01:38:18,420 --> 01:38:21,140
what we do on our phone screens 
with these drafts. 

2046
01:38:21,140 --> 01:38:25,020
So I'm pretty excited for that. 
I'm excited as well. 

2047
01:38:25,220 --> 01:38:26,860
Well, thanks again Matt for 
joining. 

2048
01:38:27,420 --> 01:38:31,540
That was awesome. 
We will be back next week for 

2049
01:38:31,540 --> 01:38:33,140
ADP JC. 
See you guys.