We are over 1/3 of the way through the season with week six
behind us and Baker Mayfield is the quarterback 2.
Just like we all predicted. This is stat chasing Pat Fryer
Helmo. This is what This is what I'm
Pat. Anita hand job.
Fix your side, Jamar. Alpha.
Play Chase. Are you kidding me?
You can't handle the heat? It looks like we're finally at
this point. You're right.
How you doing, Draco? Doing good, Doing good.
How about you? I'm doing.
Well, I know you were telling me this weekend that your advance
rates are starting to come up and look pretty good and not 20.
Percent now I mean I don't, I don't actually take a hold that
20% like I think I've just been marked say from Sequan 2 weeks
in a row now. Yeah.
And I have a bunch of like I have a bunch of, I have a bunch
of teams that are in 2nd place and not many teams that are in
3rd place. So that probably, yeah, balance
itself out. But from feeling like oh shit,
I'm going to have 12% to being 20I, I'm pretty I'm pretty happy
with that. I'd love to know how that feels.
Yeah, just surprising relief. Yeah, in in all seriousness, my
FFTC stuff that I, I did the majority of that with you is is
looking much better now. It's just everywhere else that
I'll be poor. So yeah, I don't, I, I actually,
I don't understand why the FFPC stuff is like so much better
than. Oh, I understand why the FFPC
stuff is so much better. Oh please tell me.
Oh, it's 'cause we're drafting of people who they're thought
that they had was in 2002, you know, like you're.
Yeah, you're right. That's kind of like the that's
the there, that's the FFPC, the thesis in action.
Yeah. Anyway, people.
People are regularly taking Marvin Harrison, Overtrey
McBride on FFPC, which is, I mean, it didn't make sense
considering the range of outcomes and isn't and certainly
is not looking good given the specific outcome that we're
getting. So.
No and no, not not at all. But we'll, we'll go ahead and
get into some charts tonight. I don't know why the bottom line
of my screen here is like chamfered, but it's probably the
shape. Oh, OK, OK, looking OK now.
So here we've got quarterback volume and efficiency and
rushing. So we're trying to hit all the
major points of quarterback play.
We've got efficiency from passing, we've got our rushing
upside in the size of the bubble.
And then on the horizontal axis, we we kind of look at volume
who, who's getting the most expected points or fantasy
points from passing. I as we look at this chart, I
mean, Lamar Jackson immediately stands out to me.
I mean, I'm pretty sure that the M in Lamar stands for MVP.
This guy is playing incredibly. I I just had an idea for the
chart. I I might have to fiddle around
with this on it. It might not be an immediate
change, but what do you think of rather than having the size of
the bubble indicate rushing yards, if I had like a vector
that indicated where they would be in total expected points,
just adjusting for the rushing yards.
So like Lamar here is averaging, you know, over 100 rushing yards
a game or about. And so he's, you know, his total
expected points are going to be like close to 24 then.
So he's just, if you, if you looked at Lamar's total expected
points, he's just off the charts.
Right, right. And I, I, I the only thing about
that and we, we can look at different ways.
I do worry that it might be a little bit too messy, seeing as
how many dots we have already. Yeah, the arrows.
The arrows would get pretty crowded.
I think you're right. Think you're right?
I don't want to be right. That sounds really fun and but
that that would be my concern. So Lamar Jackson, he is just
just break this down. He's at 120.5 expected points
and, and he's actually scored 151.6 points, which is QB one on
the season so far, but he's actually Jaden Daniels has more
expected points at 125.7. Brock Purdy is at 118, Joe
Burrow at 1:15. This is fake news, but Bo Nick's
at 114, Justin Fields at 1:13. So I, I, I don't know that that
that actually feels like to me more that some of these
quarterbacks are just playing really well, like Jane Daniels,
Lamar Jackson playing really well.
And, and that, that that's because of probably their talent
and, and maybe some of their matchups.
But I, I, I, I, I, I think you're right.
I, I agree that that Lamar is kind of like the, the, the QB
one like project easily projected rest of the way.
But I, I actually, I think we do a good job with this chart, I
guess is what I'm saying. No, Yeah, I think, I mean, as
far as charts that are telling you how fantasy friendly a
quarterback is, I think this one is the most intuitive.
And yeah, there there must be something off with the rushing
calculation there though, 'cause I, I just went and checked and
Lamar's averaging just under 70 rushing yards a game.
Maybe it's because his, his bubble is far away from the
reference bubble. So I, I'm just like getting a
visual trick. They don't mean I'm gonna I'm
gonna check the code on the chart.
Yeah, Yeah. That's a good call.
That's a rare call 'cause I when I was looking at that I was like
I need to double check that number.
But I mean, it's still gonna be a good visual representation
because you're looking at the the, yeah, you're looking at the
relative to each other. But yeah, maybe, maybe, maybe
it's as simple as just changing the 100 yards per game bubble to
be bigger. Because I, I kind of like how it
is now. I wouldn't want these guys to be
smaller. Yeah, I'll, I'll have to look
into that. But I don't think we need to say
anything more about Lamar. I mean, if you're the thing,
last year we, we were like pounding the table for Lamar
like all year because he kept just getting vultured on
touchdowns and his his actual fantasy output wasn't really
meshing with where he should be producing 'cause he just kept
getting vultured on touchdowns. It was really easy to identify
that as like smash spot, Just play it, you're gonna get there
eventually kind of kind of spot. This year I feel like it's a lot
less under the radar, but I also still think like Lamar could
have an even larger game. You know, like all you need is
for Derrick Henry to not get a touchdown in the game and for it
to go to Lamar and for him to have his his typical performance
otherwise. And like you're accessing a
ceiling that it frankly isn't accessible to really very many
quarterbacks in in this season. It seems like the the ceilings
for most of these guys are just a lot lower.
I mean, even some of the rushing quarterbacks like I, I don't
want to say that Josh Allen never can hit that ceiling
again. It just it just comes pretty
purely from rushing touchdowns. And then I, I feel like that's
Jalen Hurts is kind of in between Lamar and Allen where
his he certainly gets access to like his highest ceiling
outcomes from getting the rushing touchdowns.
But now that he has his pass taking weapons back, we just saw
a really good example of it this week with A.J.
Brown where he and and Devonta Smith, they're both able to get
loose and contribute and help out his production there.
Just one thing. So Lamar, his his fantasy points
over expected per PFF is five points per game, but he can
certainly deliver a game where he's like 20.
Yeah. Like like that that that that
can happen. The quarterback that I thought
was really interesting is one of the other best quarterbacks on
the chart, Brock Purdy, who put together another very solid
performance last Thursday against the Seahawks.
This week he gets a much tougher defense.
I think we all thought the Seahawks defense was was pretty
strong, but it it certainly hasn't been shaking out that way
on these last couple weeks. But Purdy plays the Chiefs this
week. What do you think about him in
this spot? So he is certainly Purdy is
certainly a regression candidate.
He is. I think he's less than a, he's
more than a touchdown under expected.
Let me confirm that. Yeah, he, he's more, he's OK.
So he's .7 touchdowns underexpected.
So he's running cold on touchdowns despite inefficient
play with with a 10.2 A dot A and an 8.8 adjusted yards per
10th. The online has played really,
really well. It's for ESPN.
They're four in pass block win rate.
So all of that is kind of really encouraging.
The one kind of caution I have is that the, the pass blocking
grades for the 49ers are they're they're still good, but they're
not like as they're, they're closer to mid table than like
top of the table. And for the, for the 49ers and,
and, and that kind of suggests that they've been able to
dominate by playing kind of weaker pass rushes.
And and then they get the Chiefs, who it's just like you,
you've got Chris Jones there and, and it's just like
dominating pass rush. So I guess like it's kind of
like a nuance there where I like really like Purdy as a GPP play
on the season, but I do worry about this specific matchup
where like he's had a really high time to throw.
So his time to throw has been 3.35 seconds.
Like that's higher than Lamar, that's higher than Josh Allen,
Jayden Daniels, like that's actually the highest of any
quarterback this season. And because his his, his pass
and blockers have been able to play so well, if they struggle
against the Chiefs that that could be a big problem.
I definitely see the path for the bottom to fall out for the
49ers against a really good Chiefs defense with Purdy's high
time to throw. Honestly, what it what it makes
me want to do is I'm really interested in the Chiefs defense
just because the Chiefs run defense is graded 8th overall by
PFF and you've got Mason dealing with the AC joint sprain.
So even if he's active, I think they'll they'll be mixing in
some of the other backs a little bit more.
And I, I just don't know how much success they can have on
the ground. Even though the 49ers have a
really great run game, I'm just not terribly confident they can
get it done against the Chiefs there.
And so if they're having to drop back to pass, there's definitely
a lot of volatility there with the high time to throw where and
if they're it's. It's a bad matchup.
They're the 49ers, a great offense, like they will have
very efficient passing days and you can and, and there's there's
outcomes where they dominate, but it's a bad matchup.
Yeah, Now to me, on paper, it does kind of look like the way
that you have to beat the Chiefs though, is through the air.
They're again, they're rushing defense graded 8th by PFF, their
coverage grade. They're all the way down at
20th. So they're just middle of the
pack there. I'm wondering if this could be a
spot where the 49ers are forced to take to the air and maybe if
Purdy ends up running even neutral in this spot you get a
really big blow up game for him. So I think it's interesting.
I definitely see the volatility there.
Also curious as and. Maybe the game plan for the
Chiefs, maybe they don't have like one of the largest time to
throw in the league. Maybe they get it out of his
hands quick and they get a debo, they get a Kittle, they get the
iuke. That's certainly a good group of
players to rely on yards after the catch.
Yeah, I believe Chiefs defensive position or defense versus
position ranking against tight end is they're they're one of
the better matchups in the league.
So that definitely makes it interesting for Kittle.
I'm curious what you think about the other side of this matchup,
though with Mahomes. I think in the game scripts
where Purdy and the 49ers are successful through the air, this
might be an interesting spot for Mahomes, but I'm curious what
you think there. Yeah, I'm, I'm a little bit
jaded on on Mahomes, I have to say, just because it's been such
a rough sledding and he's been like by his metrics, he's been
pretty average. And it doesn't seem like the the
past catching group is getting any better.
You have Travis Kelsey there and then it's what Juju Smith
Schuster. I I I, I, I do I have it, I have
it tough one with with that for sure.
And, and, and, and maybe that's a maybe maybe that's a sign that
I'm I'm too kind of like low on the chiefs this year.
But the. The what you call it, the
chief's defense isn't bad. It's not like some sort of
matchup. No, no, no.
The 49ers defense, you mean. Yeah, the 49ers.
Their. Their.
Run. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
That is what I meant. Thank you.
Their run defense has left a lot to be desired.
Now. They grade pretty poorly in run
defense and they've had some injuries in their defensive
front. But I mean, watching the
watching the game against the Seahawks, they look pretty stout
against the run to me. I mean, I don't want to base it
too much off A1 game sample, but man, the Seahawks really seemed
to want to establish it early in the game and they were just
running into the teeth of that 49ers defense and it was not
working. And I don't know if that says
more about the Kenneth Walker success rate stuff that we've
known about him for his whole career.
Where, hey, it's just like Kenneth Walker's gonna, you
know, fizzle out on a bunch of runs and then he breaks off the
occasional really special ones. And that's, that's what makes
him who he is. Or if maybe the the 49ers run
defense on paper is not as bad as it is in real life.
What I was really surprised by was the if.
It is a weak point though. Sorry I'm I'm sorry for
interpreting you. Go ahead.
Their, their coverage grade is much better and that was
something that they had struggled with last year.
So I I guess I'm surprised to see them turn it around so.
Start it's top five. Yeah.
It's like their their, their coverage grade is sport in the
league. So that would kind of suggest
that the and and maybe we're getting 2IN in in the weeds and
potential game scripts, but that would kind of suggest that the
Chiefs will try to run it. Right, yeah.
So I definitely can see the paths from this one failing.
I I was curious though on this one for you, but.
Yeah, yeah, On paper, in, in, in a year ago, we would have been
salivating about this kind of matchup.
But some of the, some of the, some of the pieces on it now
seem kind of it it, it, it does kind of feel like now like one
of those classic games where like the Chiefs just turned it
into a dogfight. Like, they do, they do this a
handful of times a year where the Chiefs just turn it into a
dogfight and it's like 10-6 or something stupid like that.
Yeah, what you're saying is we could see a heaping helping of
Kareem hunt this game. Yeah, yeah.
We could be looking at 25 touches for 70 yards.
Moving on to actually a pair of quarterbacks that both are are
in a pretty similar spot on the chart and happen to play each
other this week and that's CJ Stroud and Jordan Love.
Curious what you think of each of these guys heading into this
week and how do you like this? Match up.
So my, my first reaction when I, when I looked over these guys,
when you look at how did their team's offenses play, it's a
little bit of a Spider Man meme of needing to be pushed.
And so they need to be behind to pick up the volume.
And so I, I, I do wonder if you could get one of those games
where like one of them, one of them builds up a lead, gets
pushed, pushed by the other, and then maybe it bounces back and
forward. But that does seem like, yeah,
that does seem like a tricky part to get for the volume to
get there. They couldn't both be they can
both get there on efficiency, but I, I, I don't, I don't think
I need to belabor how good and how how like efficient they've
been. They've both been excellent
quarterbacks. They've both been very
efficient, but I do I I do how how do you how would you think
about something where like they're they're both kind of
neutral pass right over expected.
Yeah, well, so in in Pat's walkthrough last week, he's
talking about how Jordan love his has really been like more
along the lines of like middling this season.
This was prior to to last week. And it kind of surprised me.
I know we had we only had a couple games for him because he
got hurt. But looking at at what Pat went
over, he's like, OK, like that, that makes sense.
He really, I, I think in our heads we were thinking of him
better than he actually had been.
Then he goes out and puts up a really solid performance against
the Cardinals here, gets a pretty good match up against a
relatively weak Houston pass defense.
I mean, Drake may just went out and you know, it was in garbage
time, but he put up 250 yards and three touchdowns on him, had
himself a a pretty good day. So I certain.
It's interesting that Pot said that he was kind of like
average, because I do distinctly remember us saying that.
He's been good, he's been efficient.
Yeah, yeah, I'll, I'll have to go back through the walkthrough
and incite some of that stuff. But anyway, he he certainly
certainly showed that he's he's definitely more along the lines
of good than average after this last week.
I think part of that was just the small sample of only having
a couple games to go off of there, right.
But I think here, the way that we get this game to get pushed
is probably through an explosive.
Now, I don't know that the Texans, really.
Are the one that could provide the explosive because they're
missing Nico Collins, who is like their big explosive play
manufacturer, right? I mean, maybe you get another
one of these breakaway runs by Joe Mixon.
I'm certainly not going to count on that.
But I think the Packers are actually my favorite spot to
kind of get this game going in the fun direction by generating
an explosive and that comes from Love's deep passing.
It also comes from them having Christian Watson back, which I
think is is pretty interesting and adds another element to this
pass game. So I think if you're playing
this game to be a shootout, you you probably want to do it
through with with a Packer's weapon that's you're saying is
going to be delivering the explosive play to to kick this
game off. Yeah.
That that, that makes sense. That that makes sense.
I do so then I maybe this there's time for this later.
But then you think like tank Del kind of last year was that
explosive play Deliverer is that is that just not on the cards?
No, no, I definitely it's it's for sure in the range of
outcomes and and he did. Do you have you have Tank Del's
aid on for this last week candy? And give me one second.
OK. I want to say from what I
remember, I want to say that it was a little bit higher, but
I'll see if I can pull them up here.
So Tank del Ada it was 8.1. Yeah, it looks like it was
actually the lowest or second lowest that it's been on the
season 8.1 this last week, week 1, its highest A dot of 16.6.
So I mean, I don't want to I don't want to zoom in too much
on the chart here and say oh, tank Del won't won't get any
more deep targets. But yeah, definitely, definitely
interesting to watch here. I mean, he's it's certainly in
his bag to deliver an explosive play.
So yeah, probably being a little too restrictive, say it has to
come from the Packers. I just think they're probably a
better bet for it than it coming from from the Texans.
But right, the next quarterback that I wanted to point out here.
Now this one is, you know, we didn't get any new information
about this player because he was on a bye, but I do.
I'm pretty interested in the spot.
So we get Sam Darnold, who is in a pretty favorable part of the
chart. He's in that top right quadrant
that we like to have our quarterbacks be in.
He's coming off by, he's got, you know, a healthy Justin
Jefferson, a healthy Jordan Addison, TJ Hawkinson, not going
to be active this game, but starting to work his way back.
You've got potentially a slightly banged up Aaron Jones.
He practiced on Monday, reportedly, but you know, they
they just traded for Cam Akers. So for reading the tea leaves,
like maybe he's not 100%. So I wonder here with the Lions
no longer having Aidan Hutchinson to provide that
really strong pass rush. I mean, he was, he was doing so
much work for them in that. I I was looking if you look up
the pass rush grades for the various AD Detroit Lions
defensive lineman and he was like he, he is a crushing loss
for them. So they have two good defensive
tackles, but then outside of agent Aiden Hutchinson, it's
really weak. They actually have kind of like
a rotation on the other side at defensive end and like those
guys are, we're not playing particularly well.
So already happened to like get the other side of the the
defensive end by kind of volume switching up different players
and now happen to do that with both.
Like I, I, I do have like, it's defensive, like we're, I guess
we're not experts, but that has the feeling of something where
that could be a pretty dramatic drop off for the Lions.
Yeah, I, I that was, that was why I was so interested in this,
because if you get, you know, increased time to throw here and
the Vikings are able to attack more downfield, I mean, that's
that's pretty good for Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson.
Both of those guys are very, very proficient, right?
Right. So I, I guess I, I was trying to
like butcher us your point where it's like, it's obviously
Hutchinson is a superstar, but they also have this problem
where they actually pretty light on depth too.
Like they didn't have the depth to fill in there.
Right. And so do you think that's a
bigger blow to the Lions in run defense or in in pass rushing,
losing Hutchinson? Probably pass rush.
I like their, their defensive tackles are still good and, and
I mean you still have outside runs, it's like and stuff like
that. So they could be vulnerable on
that. But I I do think having an
defensive tackle stair does help a lot on the on the run stuff.
So of the of the game environments that we went
through here and I I guess we we weren't so fair to Jared Goff.
We didn't really touch on him. He's in a pretty great spot on
the chart. He they absolutely just
eviscerated the Cowboys. So he got got some nice, you
know, stat padding in there. But the Vikings defense is
pretty formidable. They blitz an awful lot.
I just wonder, you know, how much of A ceiling Goff really
has in this game. But for these three games that
we we kind of highlighted here, the 49ers, Chiefs or the Texans
and Packers or Lions and Vikings, which of these
three-game environments do you like the best?
And is there AI think it's Lions, Vikings and and so I
would assume that you prefer Darnold then out of out of.
Darnold yeah, in in a vacuum and all that kind of stuff, for
sure. Darnold I do.
I do wonder though, if like the lines might be like the
exception to the defense, the offenses that could get stifled
by the Vikings D where I don't really know how like like for
just for example, like what the pick six that we saw in London
where the Vikings basically they knew what play was coming
because the The Jets had sort of tipped, not that they tipped it,
but they were so predictable and calling it where you have like
so many. Well, I guess what I'm saying is
you have so many potent offensive weapons on the lines
and then like a very strong offensive play caller.
So like that could be a combination where even though
the Vikings defense is good, if they're pushing the lines on, so
the lines are happening to throw a ton, you, you could see like
you could see a lion's offense like and push back the tide, I
think against the Vikings. Yeah, I mean, the the Cowboys
defense is a total cupcake defense, but the Lions just
dropped a 40 burger on them, you know, and they're they're.
Using their lineman as as as receivers.
Yeah, cooking, cooking Cowboys defenders with offensive
lineman. So I, I, I could see this game
shooting out. It's a really interesting one
for me. I, I definitely the thing that I
like about the Lions is they have ways to punish that Vikings
blitz heavy approach. Like if you OK, you you wanna
blitz us? All right, I guess we're doing
Jamo slams. Yeah, it's like, oh, you good.
Good luck catching this guy. Yeah, All right.
It's a, it's a Jamo shallow crosser.
Let's see if we can get him the ball right behind the blitzing
linebacker. Oh, we did all right.
Oh, you're going to try and like, yeah, you're going to try.
And what you call it, jam up. I'm in Ross St.
Brown. Like good luck.
Yeah, probably going to be open. So it shapes up to be a pretty
fun one in my opinion. I I'm glad that I was kind of I
was going back and forth between the Texas and Packers one.
But getting your insight, I think I agree with you that I I
do like the Vikings lions the best here.
You also get it in a Dome. Oh, oh, that's always nice,
right? Yes, OK.
The last note I had for the quarterback chart before we move
on to running backs, I wanted to get your favorite from the
bottom right quadrant of the chart.
So these are like our guys that are potentially prime for
aggression. They're getting a lot of
expected fantasy points to the volumes there.
The efficiency just hasn't been there.
So who who do you prefer for a get right spot this week?
And so there's a couple guys that I think are interesting.
I'll just list them off and then you let me know who your
favorite is. So we've got Andy Dalton versus
a really weak Washington defense.
We've got Geno Smith versus Atlanta coming off of a 52 pass
attempt game for Gino, and then you've got Matt Stafford off the
by against an absolutely putrid Raiders defense potentially
getting Cooper cut back. So which of those are your
favorite? Yeah, those are all like it's
honestly those are all high volume pass contacts where like
the have been high volume against bad defenses.
So if I'm thinking about this and the right way, I think that
if things are going right for the offense, for example, the
Panthers, I think I could see them actually kind of running
the ball quite a bit. And I think if things are going
right for the Rams, also could see that being a run heavy game.
And the Seahawks, the Seahawks are the one where I think like
even if things go right, they're still going to pass a good
amount. Like they've got the really hot
they well, it's not really high. They've got the +6 pass rate
over expected. So like that's what feels right.
And on the other hand, some, some, I'd made a couple of notes
about Stafford where his, the big issue with his efficiency is
kind of like aggregate composite efficiency has been under going
way under on touchdowns. So having somebody like cut back
could be a big deal for him, kind of like having some, some
positive regression on the touchdowns.
And, and, and then I guess the, the, the issue I have with
Dalton is we kind of know who he is.
Like I think he's like a competent backup, but he's not
somebody who I'm ever going to like just expect to be on the
higher end, on the higher end of efficiency in the league.
Not that he can't, but I just wouldn't expect it.
Yeah, that's, that's fair. Non, certainly non derogatory.
That's fair. Yeah, I think, I think the
Panthers, the the key to the Panthers is just play it through
their hyper consolidated weapons.
It's not. It's not attacking on Dalton,
just playing it through Chuba and Deonte and calling it a day
and knowing you're getting the vast majority of the fantasy
points from that offense just through those two players.
Yeah, Chuba could be like, because he's he's pretty much a
bell cow now. Yeah.
So like that's a pretty strong, not not to give anything too
much away, but that's a pretty strong play.
Yeah, the I mean, if you want to get into to narrative as well, I
mean, you've got a guy like Chuba who coming out of college,
you know, I, I think we all like Chuba as a prospect that he kind
of had started his career with a bit of a whimper.
And then now he's, you know, he's seeing this young buck in
Jonathan Brooks, you know, just becoming activated like here to
potentially take his job. Like this might be the, you
know, the Chuba Hubbard I got AI got to make a case to retain my
job type game. So maybe might be reading a
little too much into it. I mean, these guys are all
always going to be hyper competitive, trying their
hardest, but. You know, maybe a little
speaking, Speaking of Chuba, I think that's a pretty, pretty
good transition to the to the running back chart.
Excellent transition that was flawless.
Better than honor interrupting you pretty falls.
And. So that I I thought this was
interesting. And so Chuba Hubbard, he has 5.1
make sure, let me get make sure I'm getting this right.
He Chuba has 5.8 yards per carry this season with like pretty
strong usage. So it's not like he's just
getting draw plays on turn down or like some some plays that
would expected high yardage, like he's playing really, really
well. And a side note, Zach, you
probably missed this, but there was a small discussion on
Twitter kind of burying the rush yards over expected model on
that next Gen. stats put together.
And some of those issues is like, so Leone kind of said it's
less sticky years, year to year for players than just straight
unadjusted yards per attempt. And and then the other piece of
it is, is that it actually incorporates how fast the player
is into their expected when they get the ball.
If you're a fast player, you're going to have a higher expected
rushyard than a slow player. So the rushyard over expected is
probably it's not as good for kind of like determining this is
the next chance that it's probably not as good for
determining player quality as we might have thought.
Yeah, that's that's some good insight and yeah, not being on
Twitter, I did miss that conversation.
The incorporating player speed into into it seems a little
silly. I I think it probably would be a
lot more useful if they just use like a replacement level speed
for it. Then then you could hear what
the player was doing above expectation.
But yeah, that's, that's just my opinion.
But yeah, I mean, Chuba's role, like if you look in here, it's
it's pretty darn good. It's right there between Bruce
Hall and Saquon Barkley. See a absolute bell cow role.
He's getting tons of work in the passing game too.
Like he's game script proof. I mean, you just for for weekly
formats of fantasy, you just keep writing Chuba until the
wheels fall off until Jonathan Brooks comes in and, you know,
turns it into a timeshare. But.
And the thing I think about this, though, is like Brooks is
going to have to take work off of Chuba.
It's not, it's not just going to be handed to him like he's going
to have to play better, decidedly better than Chuba to
turn it into a real time share. Like Chuba is playing really
well. If Chuba keeps playing like
this, they're going to have a tough time like giving him and,
and, and that's disappointing to me too, but I, I think it's
something to we're recognizing like he's playing so well, it's
going to be tough to to usurp him.
Yeah, definitely. I mean, I think there's a big
part of it where the team did spend so much draft capital on
Jonathan Brooks. I'm like, I, I think it's just
one of those like, you know, they just bought the Ferrari,
like they want to take it for a spin type situation.
So I, I don't think he's going to have trouble getting on the
field. I do think he's going to have
trouble like earning more work than Chuba, I think.
Yeah. I I don't want to like, get out
over my ski socks. They're going to play them.
I'm not saying they're going to play.
Do you think he's a dog to out touch Chuba in week 17?
No, no, I don't think he is. I think he's probably a favorite
there, but it's gone it that favoritism like incorporates him
playing really well as he ramps back up from it from injury.
Like if he doesn't then then there's no way he can be right.
Right, another guy who it just has assumed a complete workhorse
role. Just absolute bell cow is
Kenneth Walker in in the show. Note I put this ain't your
mama's Kenneth Walker because he's not the the Kenneth Walker
that you remembered from previous seasons where he wasn't
really involved in the pass game.
He'd get a couple, you know, he he'd get a good amount of
carries, but not everything that's dead and buried.
This, this is new Kenneth Walker super soldier.
I mean, this guy is getting everything.
He's super involved in the passing game.
I think on our last show we talked about I, I made a comment
about how does Kenneth Walker have so many expected receiving
fantasy points? And you look back and and, you
know, showed, oh, we had all these targets in this game when
they were coming from behind. Yeah, turns out the same, same
thing. We got the same thing against
the 49ers. Kenneth Walker gets a ton of
targets again. I mean, yeah, the role for
Kenneth Walker is elite. He's definitely.
I mean, I don't think it's crazy to say he's a top five fantasy
backrest of season. Yeah, yeah, for sure.
Like he he learned, this is kind of Walker who learned how to
goal line Curry and he's actually positive efficiency on
touchdowns. So like he's getting the goal
line role, he's converting it to touchdowns and he's catching
targets. Like he's like you said, he's
heavily involved in down game script and when they score
points, he's heavily involved in getting those points.
Like he he might. He might be the best shot at a
legendary season this year. I, I was just thinking that when
we get to the efficiency charts, I do want to do a legendary
season check in with you again, because I think that's fun to,
to do periodically. But before we get there, there
are a couple other running backs on this chart whose outlooks are
decidedly less rosy than Kenneth Walker's.
And both of these guys, I would say, previously had bell cow
rolls and now both of those are looking like they're in jeopardy
and that's Rashaad White and Devin Singletary.
So for White, we see his role in jeopardy due to, I mean, both of
them are due to injury. You know that they open up the
door to these younger, I mean in White, do you?
Remember I I remember when that the reason that Rashad White
wasn't getting a lot of rushing yards was because the online was
bad. Yeah, I, I also.
I don't think the online is bad. Yeah, I mean, maybe the
Rashard's overexpected model was correct when it comes to Rashad
White. So yeah, I mean.
But the, the, if you look at ESPN, Tampa Bay actually has one
of the best run blocking online. They're mid table by PFF.
So I, I know just before he went out, Rashad White had like the
big long run, but I, I don't, I, I think, I think he's, he's
crushed a little bit. Even if he does maintain like a
role, like it's whatever he has right now is very tenuous, very
tenuous. He cannot continue to play
mediocre and hold on to what he has like even diminished what he
has. He I think he's in trouble.
Yeah, the, the problem for Rashad White is that his role,
the, the amount of role that he retains is inversely
proportional to how intelligent the Bucs coaching staff is.
So the worse they are, the better role Rashad White will
have. And so I, I think it really
comes down to like how, how big of donkeys do you think are
making the decisions for, you know, what running backs are
getting touches. So so just just to to kind of
note here, in the last game with white out, it was actually
bookie Irving who was the passing down back.
They actually trusted Brooke Irving.
Now, let me let me look up this up.
So I get it exactly right. But they actually trusted him to
be the the passing down back. So he had he had five pass pass
blocking snaps in the last game. He also, I think he had he had
27 routes. So to me, like maybe maybe he is
slightly better as a pass blocker to, to Bucky, but him
having this kind of Moat as being the pass blocker, as being
the guy who can catch targets that that feels really tough.
It feels really tough. I, I, I guess it, it is, it's
for, for Bucky. I guess one note for Bucky, it
is kind of a little bit of concern that even when you got
his contingent upside role, it was still pretty heavily capped
by them splitting the carries. They split the carries 5050 with
Sean Tucker and but at the same time like the Rashad White stuff
feels really bad. Yeah, Tucker did get a lot fewer
snaps than than Bucky did, and a lot of those Tucker carries did
come. Now the this is a crazy game,
but a lot of the Tucker carries came later in the game after Now
I don't want to say it was out of hand just because this game
was so sweet that like, I don't think it ever was really out of
hand until it was like the Bucks had, you know, a three score
lead on it. But man, it so a lot of the Sean
Tucker stuff came later, but it that's not to say it was all
garbage time. So it certainly wasn't, but it
was more that when Tucker was on the field, he was getting
touches at a. Highway it was to give him a
carry. Yeah, just to give him a carry.
Nick had a good question in the chat.
Do you guys think Sean Tucker AD?
I absolutely think he's an AD. I had so much Sean Tucker in the
big board last year. He was, he was AI really, really
loved him as a prospect. Super fun guy.
His highlights are really fun. So where, where that's most
relevant probably is in FFPC kind of redraft leagues.
And I think he will be he will be a target for most people in,
in waivers. I, I know Steph is kind of like
the expert on, on, on waiver sizing.
My thoughts would be that he's more like a stash where once
White comes back and he it sounds like he will come back
soon. Once White comes back, he, he
probably won't play that much. But then, you know, once, once
you get that injury, you kind of know what you get there.
You get a what feels like a very, what seems like a very
efficient runner who will get lots of carries in, in, in high,
yeah, play count games. So to me that feels like
encouragement not to kind of go overboard like he's not like a
he's not like some super priority fab where you have to
like load up all your fab on him.
But he is somebody who's a stash that where you have that upside
of like that. They can say like see a white
and or, or white gets injured or blah, blah, blah.
But you you probably, unless you're really, really stuck, you
can't really start Tucker while there while White is healthy.
I agree 100% with you. He's someone that you really
want to have on your bench for when the contingent upside comes
in. And it's not, it doesn't
necessarily require an injury. It could just be that the staff
realizes, you know, they do a three three-way time split and
then slowly realize like, OK, we just we can't justify giving
Rashad white carries. He's now just a really good
depth piece for us. I just don't think that I think
that will take a little while to happen.
And so you're just going to you're going to sit with Sean
Tucker for a while, but he's someone that I'm happy to have
on my bench. I want to want to ask you a
quick question. If you were going to be adding
or dropping someone, Sean Tucker or Emmanuel Wilson, who would
you rather have on your bench in an FFPC league?
I think you'd rather have Tucker.
Really. OK.
Well, yeah, we've kind of we've almost seen the Emmanuel Wilson
like upside. I guess maybe if you get an
injury, if you get an injury to, to Josh Jacobs, right, you're,
you're, you're definitely you're much cleaner on Emmanuel Wilson.
So you also, you just think the probability of Tucker usurping
White without an injury is high enough that 'cause I think the
ceiling for Wilson is higher in the, in the case of an injury
cause then I think it's probably just him.
And then maybe you get a little Marshawn Lloyd mixed in if he's
back. But I, I think you just have a
problem in Tampa Bay where you now have two backs that seem
good and you've got one that's just kind of more entrenched.
And so it's just a little more crowded there.
I, I don't know, I I thought it was an interesting.
It, it is interesting and I, I could be wrong here, but some of
what I was kind of baking in there on, on Wilson is that even
if you get like that and then I think about it, even if you get
that an injury on Emmanuel Wilson, then they probably bring
in somebody. It's probably not just Emmanuel
Wilson. You're you're very right.
That's this is like classic fantasy football player brain
where you're like, Oh yeah, the backup running back will clearly
assume the entire role or most of it.
It's like, no, like it's, it's a learning name spot, right?
Yeah, yeah, learning name spot is a good way to put it.
And I mean, his role would improve.
His role right now isn't actually bad.
Like he's got a better stand alone, but it's kind of like he
hasn't really like he's got an extended play without really
making an impact, which I I think you have to factor that
into where like if if you're get, if somebody's playing a lot
and they're not like making an impact, then how can they be a
difference maker for you? Like you're maybe I'm over,
maybe I'm overreacting to Sean Tucker being like very good, but
and are are like playing scoring lots of points last week.
But I also do kind of want to react to that like I I do.
No, I, I think you're, I think you're right.
We have it's a prospect we were excited for who had, you know,
an understandable reason why he he hasn't produced yet or gotten
an opportunity. His very first opportunity.
Guy looks pretty good. So I think this it's the kind of
thing where you need to you need to be aggressive to get out
ahead of it if you're if you want to be the one to capture
that upside. So definitely a good stash.
Let's move on to the next guy whose previous bell count role
is now in jeopardy in Devon Singletary.
I mean, the Tyrone Tracy genie does not go back in the bottle
after the games that we've seen from him.
Man, he he looks good. I really like Tyrone Tracy.
Yeah, yeah, he's played pretty phenomenal.
And I think, I think, I don't think you go back to to Bellco
Singletary. I I don't think we get that
again. But Singletary is also the type
of back who will like, stubbornly hold on to a roll
because he does all the little things right.
Yeah. Singletary is not going to lose
a job. He's just not.
I believe that it was you who likened Devin Singletary to
creeping Ivy, where he will just slowly strangle out the other
backs in the backfield. I think Tracy is probably too
good to get strangled out, but I think Singletary is just too
consistent as a real life NFL player.
Devin Singletary is really freaking good.
Like, he's not most exciting guy, but Devon Singletary is
that. Nobody gets fired for playing
Devon Singletary. No, he's he's the reliable
vehicle. Devon Singletary has got 300,000
miles on him and he's never broken down.
You know that he's going to get you from point A to point B.
It is. I mean, it is kind of like
indicative though that you saw after, after it being a much
closer split in Week 5 for Tracy and Eric Gray.
It, it, it became a Tyrone Tracy is the guy split and then with
that role he played just as well, if not better.
So you do you do have that like piece where Tracy is playing
really, really well in a way that the coaching staff is very
clearly recognizing. And and so that feels like a new
development and the coaching staff will have to react to it
where it will. It will be much closer to 5050
than before. It probably who who knows how
close to 5050 it is, but much closer than it was before.
Yeah, moving on to the next guy, we we talked about this player a
little bit already and in the context of the match up.
But Aaron Jones coming off the bye week, you know, with the
potential injury spotted in practice on Monday.
I definitely want to watch the situation closely.
But how do you feel about him against this Lion's defense
without Hutchinson? So I mean, like I said, I, I, I
think, I think the, the past defense is more impacted than
the run defense. And I do think that it's a spot
where the, the Vikings will look to pass because like I, I, they
are actually kind of like a pass heavy team as well.
And if you get healthy, Aaron Jones, like that's always going
to be interesting. He's a really explosive player.
Like he doesn't have to get there on the ground.
He could also catch a bunch of passes and, and, and has one
that, and if you're trying to win a GPP, like it's that kind
of play that you need. And I, I think it's, I think
it's interesting like, but definitely really concerned by,
by him coming back off the injury.
OK, the next guy I wanted to touch on here, relatively new
addition to the chart 'cause he dealt with an injury through
much of the early season here, that's Raheem Mostert and his
the the split. Now things are so weird with the
Dolphins without them having Tua and then you get the H in
concussion. So, you know, definitely a
little weird. They they're coming off the by
here. So a chance two weeks removed
now this will be his second week, you know, from the
concussion. He should be fine to play, but
what do you think of either of these Dolphins running backs
here? They get a pretty good match up
against the Colts. Do you have any interest in
either of them and do you have a a lead one way or the other?
So with a Chon back, it has to be a Chon over most third, like
I I think it just has to be like he he he's the lead for them
now. And and it's honestly he he he
had such command of that backfield that and and monster
had seemed like like a player so clearly kind of aged out that it
it it's hard for me to to do the monster thing.
Do you feel differently? I I mean, I know that it was off
the the injury, but Monster got 20 touches in their last game
and and it's not like a Chan has been particularly efficient this
season. I think I agree with you that he
is a Chan is the one now and that's what they want.
But I also think during the buy they might have, you know, had a
had a little bit of a come to Jesus moment on it and said
maybe we shouldn't be giving a Chan, you know, 20 plus touches
a game. Maybe we go back to the thing
that keeps him fresh and explosive.
Like Riddle me this. Would you rather give a chance
20 touches a game and then he's not efficient And so you, you
know, you're just not getting these big explosive plays.
Or do you want to give him 11:50 touches a game And the reason
that he's getting fewer touches is because the drives end
because he's getting a 6080 yard touchdown run, you know?
So right, right, that makes sense.
I and I honestly, especially coming off a bye, it does look
like Jalen Wright played much better than Mostard.
And just by the numbers it looks like he's played better.
Like if, if if you're running have like a bye week shake up,
like I'd almost look for it. I'd almost wonder if it's Jalen
Wright over Mostard. OK, well now, now you've got me
back to the champ. Previously I was, I was a little
interested in Moser here just to, you know, see if he assumes
the world that they had him in last year.
I, I, I certainly think that wanes as the season goes on
'cause, you know, like you said, he, he's an older player.
Like the injury really Hanford him to start the season.
He missed a lot of time. I'm just wondering if it's like
these are these are the freshest we'll get Raheem Moser's legs.
And so we make the most out of them here.
But if the smart play is probably just a Chan and you
just go back to the guy who's shown that, you know, he he can
be good for multiple, you know, long house calls a week.
So. Yeah, yeah, I, I, that's how I
feel about it. Where like I really think that
there's A and not, not, not not a small risk that they actually
go with, right, Just because when, when somebody starts
hitting that Cliff, like it appears that monster is like
that, that, that that fall off can be dramatic.
Yeah, that's, I think that's a really good point.
We've got a couple good questions in the chat.
This this one Quorum, Vidal, Tucker or Bigsby rest of season?
I mean for I guess I'll, I'll go ahead and rank him and you let
me know if you disagree on any of them here.
For me, it's Vidal #1, probably quorum #2, Tucker #3 and bigsby
#4. I don't think Bigsby is a thing.
I think Bigsby is wish casting 'cause he had a couple good
breakaway runs. ETM is dealing with the injury,
so Bigsby got more playing time and Bigsby is not at all
involved in the passing game. Like they're using dearness
Johnson over him. And I just, I don't know if I
want to believe that the player that we saw stink out loud all
last year all of a sudden is having a renaissance.
I I think I want to I want to rely a little bit more on my
priors there and not get over my skis on Bigsby.
So, yeah, the like the the player who actually led the team
in snaps at running back was Dearness Johnson.
So if you were if if like you were trying to like consider
this like, hey, Travis Etienne is injured or maybe he's not as
good anymore, they're phasing him out.
You have this ascending player in in Bigsby.
What you don't want to see is Darius Johnson with like a yeah,
54% snap rate like. Yeah, I mean, the other three
just kind of feel like these are all really good bench stash
players, right? Like all of these are really.
I'm happy. If I'm looking at a team and I
see that guy on the roster, I'm like, cool, that's good.
Yeah, all. That's kind of all get there.
They all have different flavors and can get there in different
ways, but they're all strong. Yep.
And then run Good Rick also had a pretty good question.
I I want to say that one for the efficiency charts, though.
So I, I didn't want you to think we were we're not seeing yet Run
good Rick, but we'll get to that Dijon question on the efficiency
charts only had one more for this starters chart here, and
that's Javonte Williams. So, OK, Gretch had a really
interesting point about Javonte and I think it was a stealing
signals last week, but it's that Jovante's snap share, if you
look at it from a percentage, you'll see it you know waver up
and down week over week. It's not not terribly
consistent, but if you look at it from a raw snaps perspective,
the number of raw snaps and opportunities that Jovante gets
are very consistent. So it's almost like Sean Payton
has like, hey, this is about how many snaps I want to give to
anyone guy in a week because he's trying to manage workload.
And that that makes sense. You know, if you were, if you
really did think that that mattered for the quality of your
players over the course of a season, like not getting that,
you know, just like you're looking at a pitch count for a
pitcher, like you're not looking at percent of pitches thrown in
a game, like you're looking at the actual pitch count, right.
So that makes sense for the Jovante workload.
The thing that I'm concerned about is the the production
coming on that workload. I mean, I think it's pretty fair
to to attribute a lot of that to just the the Broncos struggling
lately. They've been a little bit
better. Nyx has certainly been better,
but it's just not translating for Jovante.
So I'm kind of wondering with Estimate coming back and
immediately getting Estimate got snaps in his first game off IR,
you know, as a rookie that missed a bunch of time.
Do you think that Thursday night here against the Saints is
Javonte's last gasp to kind of hold off Audrey Guest to me?
And I that, I mean, that's hard to say, isn't it, just because
we've seen Javonte not play as well as we hoped for or expected
and then still hold on to a role and, and then so estimate he had
what, 22 rush attempts? Yeah, I'm not actually.
Sure. I'm not sure how many snaps he
had. I'm going to look that up real
quick, but I can't imagine that it was.
It was too many. No, I don't believe it was
terribly substantial. I just.
OK, he had, he had, he had two snaps.
Yeah, 2 snaps, 2 carries so. He did have 6 snaps in that kick
return. There you go.
Yeah, I mean. I, I, I guess it that that makes
it really hard to kind of call for the end of, of Jovante's
time in Denver. I mean, I, I think Jovante just
maybe ran a little hot with the Tyler Bidet injury too.
Like that might have been the 1st, that was the first person
coming at Jovante for the role and, and now we get another.
It's just like, how many, how many can he survive?
I don't know. I'm, I'm relatively concerned
about Javonte. I think Thursday is is pretty
important for him. Yeah, yeah.
I mean, he can get right where he can play bad.
And they're still like, yes, this is this is our guy.
So I think, I think that's very reasonable.
I just I, I. The part where I hesitate is
like calling the point where it's like, yes, this is the.
Right, right. Yeah, We don't.
We don't. Want to, but I agree with the
like I agree with the sentiment of like he can't play back.
He he can't keep getting away with this.
Yeah, OK, let's move to the backups chart.
There's really only one guy that I wanted to touch on here other
than Kyle use checks. Hilarious snap share.
It's when when the 49ers deal with running back injuries, Kyle
use check comes a knock in. But no, the the one I really
wanted to point out here, we've got the Chase Brown ascension
continuing, I believe now again, these charts, the running back
charts are rolling. The usage one is rolling for
weeks. So we're looking at the last
four weeks of data so that we can pick up on emergent trends.
So this Chase Brown stuff, we've got four weeks of data, but here
over this, just this most recent week, he did finally flip Zach
Moss in snaps. Is that right?
He flipped them in snaps. Now some of that, some of that
is because the the Bengals actually didn't pass block that
much. There was only tree total pass
blocking snaps. And so that that's a big part of
it, but another part of it was that Chase Brown got more so he
had more rushes, 10 rush attempts for Brown versus 6 for
Moss. And he also had more routes, 19
versus 14. I do wonder if those routes
would look different in games with lots of pass blocking.
Like there is part of me that wonders if that was kind of a
game plan specific thing. And then if they use it back to
pass block more, the, the passing stuff tilts more in
favor of Zach Moss again. But this is definitely a very,
very encouraging development for for Chase Brown drafters And I
so I think you're still, let's see, you're still at AMA 6th.
So you're at a 60% snap rate for Chase Brown and then a 4644%
snap rate for and Zach Moss. Obviously that that doesn't add
up to 90 and that doesn't add to 100% and or say that adds up to
104%. So there must have been snaps
where they're about on the field, but pretty, pretty
encouraging. Yeah, definitely.
I mean, I think it's just Chase Brown was a buy.
He he is a buy, Yeah. That's and and the other piece
is like he always, he always looks so much better when he
gets. It's, it's really, it's super
stark, man, watching. I was.
And it shows up in the numbers too.
Yeah, it's it, it, it checks all the boxes, right?
Like it's what I'm seeing when I look at the stats, it's what I'm
seeing when I look at the the advanced metrics.
It's what I'm seeing when I watch the game.
So it's like when all of those things a line, it just gives you
more confidence in the evaluation of the player that
this guy is good. So definitely exciting.
Let's move on to the efficiency charts.
Any anybody you you think of as interesting here on efficiency?
Yeah, so the, for me, the thing that was the that stood out the
most on the efficiency charts was really just that we have
these clear tiers beginning to form and it's all it, it's so
nice when this happens. And I, I remember feeling this
way last season as well, when it's like, Oh yeah.
Like when we, when we finally start getting, you know, these
guys more settled into their roles and their workload and
like we, we start knowing what they are and we just see these
clear tiers forming. It, it, it makes it, it just
feels so much more orderly to me, you know.
And so here we, we don't really have anyone that is sitting well
positioned for a legendary season.
I mean, you've got guys like Jonathan Taylor, Kyron Williams
kind of on the on the threshold. Derrick Henry is trying his
damnedest. I mean, he's, if he has a
legendary season, he's going to get there purely through
efficiency. It's not going to be from the
past, from the passing game. He's not getting his requisite 4
targets per game to, to qualify for the legendary season
Screener. But damn it, he's going to put
up 2100 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns.
So, and Derrick Henry's so fun. I I wish I had drafted more of
him. I don't I don't hate that I
faded him. I think it wasn't terrible
process. Yeah, I don't regret it.
I don't regret it. I wish I was rooting for I was
able to root for him more financially, but I don't, I
don't think I don't consider it a bad decision.
I even though he is hurting me every week financially, I still
root for him. I I fucking love Derrick Henry
man. He's one of my favorite players.
I mean if you're in discord you've seen my avatar.
It's the Derrick Henry face. The guy is he's the best.
I love Derrick Henry. Wish he was helping me more
financially. But I mean, the the whole thesis
for the fade was, I mean, the only way he buries me is if he
gets 2000 yards and 20 touchdowns.
And Derrick Henry just said hold my beer like that's lightweight.
So yeah, he's he's a fun one. OK, this one is interesting
though just. Sure, before RAM I just because
I looked this up and Chase Brown 5 1/2 yards per carry this
season. Zach Moss 3.61 of them is way
better. Yeah, yeah, pretty, pretty
clearly. OK.
This one's interesting though. So you get this tier of guys who
I don't think anyone, you know, based on the Hubbard workload
and and his efficiency, he's he's over 5A carry.
Like I don't think anyone's surprised to see him where he is
on the chart. Same with Henry, Karen Williams,
Jonathan Taylor. Hoping that Taylor comes back
from that ankle injury soon, but Joe Mixon is here.
To me, this kind of feels like one of those, you know, one of
these things that's not like the others spots.
But I'm I want to hear your your take on this Joe Mixon spot on
the efficiency chart. Are you buying or selling this?
Does he belong in this band of 15 to 20 expected fantasy points
a game? So in terms of expected points,
yeah, yeah. I mean, I think he would he was
drafted to to live in this world where they they they would use
them a lot. And and I, I I think this kind
of usage is, is a pretty easy projection going forward.
I'm not, I'm not sure if I buy the efficiency like it it and
it's hard to sell the efficiency when he's he's actually like
been so efficient. But at the same time he is an so
he is an older running back and and he's already gotten an
injury. And I I think there was people
kind of commenting that he he looked like he was running
injured in this game. So I'm I'm hearing like a fuzzy
like are you hearing that? I am not.
Can you? Can you hear me OK?
Yeah, yeah, I can hear you fine. So I, I, I think in, in games
where he plays healthy, it, it, it, it actually, it actually
feels like he's somebody who's young enough that he's going to
deliver good games. But I guess there's that risk
there that he, he, he, he got injured.
I, I, I, I think, I think that's probably the right way to think
about him mixing where his, his usage is good, he's good enough
that his well healthy, his efficiency will be OK, but you
probably have elevated injury risk there.
Yeah, the other, I mean, we also just have a really small sample
of him being a Texan 'cause he got, you know, he got it.
He only had a couple games. Now I'm interested in this spot
against the Packers. You know, they don't have a
fantastic rush defense. So I think it's interesting he
did only have 12 carries this last week.
It's probably because it was his first game off the injury and
they were just beating the brakes off the Patriots.
So no need to, you know, put a bunch of wear on him.
So I think they want to, I think they want to use them a lot.
If you want to play the Texans and Packers game to fail, he
seems like a great way to do it. Texans, you know, move the ball
efficiently on offense and then Joe Mixon gobbles up all the
points. That seems like an interesting
angle to that game to me. But yeah, I wanted I I'm glad I
got your insight on if you're buying or selling him.
Seems seems like you kind of land in in whole territory.
Yeah, yeah. I mean, like I I was went into
the season as a sell Nixon guy because of the age risk.
And I think you've gotten like some of the good and the bad
there where like he's looked better than maybe I'd expected.
But then injuries come with being old too, as I well know.
OK, couple more guys I wanted to touch on quickly on this chart
before you go to the next one. So you get Saquon Barkley and
he's living in that 10 to 15 expected fantasy point band with
guys like James Cook, Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs, Draco.
I was told Saquon Barkley was going to score 30 fantasy points
every game. What gives?
Yeah, and I'm actually I'm kind of surprised here as well.
And so this this expected points.
So he, it looks like he's coming in and where I, I'm showing, I'm
showing him coming in at 1817.9 expected points a game.
Oh, oh, that, that's a, if you, if you include week 1, he's got
17.9 expected points a game. That that's, that's the
disconnect there. Whereas in the last day, in the
last four weeks, it's, it's trended closer to 14.
And and so with that, he's he's kind of ticked down to a 73%
snap rate. And so he's actually they've
used Kenneth Gainwell as the pass blocker more often.
So he's kind of siphoned off some of those routes.
And then it also seems like they've kind of started to
establish the, the, the the Broderly shove a little bit more
so that that rushing expected points has come down too.
And it the the answer is probably somewhere in the
middle. He's probably like something
like a 1515 expected points and per game guy, which that that
that seems pretty in that actually seems pretty in keeping
with what we would have expected before the the season.
And then how he's kind of salvage that this year and so
far anyway has been breaking off the long runs.
And I don't know the that online is really good.
So maybe we should expect it to happen some of the time, But I
I'm feeling pretty marked, say, from Saquon right now.
Yeah, I I want to look up the Jordan Mileata injury.
Yeah. So it looks like Jordan
Mileata's hamstring injury is going to cause him to miss time.
I think he was getting an MRI today, so it's going to be a
couple weeks. That's definitely a big loss for
the Eagles. I I think he's.
An offensive lineman for the Mizzy.
Yeah, I think that impacts Saquon's upside a little bit
there because you want those big holes open so that you can break
off the explosive runs. That being said, like he, you
know, they're playing against the Browns.
The Browns have a pretty good defense.
He still looked fine, you know, and the the parts of that game
that I caught, he looked he didn't look bad to me by any.
You know, I'm I'm the resident Saquon hater here.
Like he didn't look bad. So it's it's not if you have
Saquon bags, you don't need to panic on them.
I just think that what you saw to start the season is like,
don't expect that every single week.
Right, that's the high end of his range.
Yeah, And what you got these last couple weeks, you know,
this week and then the one prior to the buy, that's that's
probably a little on the low side for him.
So reality probably lies somewhere in between there.
I do think though, this revenge game that he gets against the
Giants is a pretty interesting spot.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Eagles try to get him,
you know, some touchdowns, couple touchdowns here.
So yeah, it's a. It's a fun spot here for sure.
It's an interesting and revenge game narrative.
Yeah, I will say so in in week 5 and Saquon he had just 737.6
expected rushing yards and but he kind of he's his expected
points piece kind of saved that with a one with one expected
touchdown. And actually week that's not
week 5, that's week 4. Yeah, I was going to say week
five he had zero expected yards. He's on the line.
But then so Week 6, just 80 expected rushing yards, 0
expected touchdowns or 0.05. And so it, it is surprising to
me that that those games are actually in his in his range.
And like you like, I think what you're kind of getting at is
you're going to get to an average of 15 expected points
per game. True, some highs and lows that
that we we overreacted too much to the to the upside of what
happens. We shouldn't overreact to the
bottom falling out in a couple weeks as well.
Right, let's see. The other one that I wanted to
point out. He's right next to Saquon on the
chart, but he's got some, he's got some tailwinds here to help
him out for this next week because I believe Tajay Spears
is injured. Let me pull up and see if
there's any any new Tajay Spears injury news here.
But. He left.
He left the game with a hamstring injury and if I
remember, he was kind of ruled out relatively like relatively
quickly. Yeah, it looks like the most
recent thing is that he's week to week.
So I would assume that he is missing this week.
So then you get Pollard here has a pretty good match up against
the Bills. I'm definitely interested in him
in this spot. What do you think about Pollard
here and how does his role change with Spears out?
So I think we got it. We actually got a pretty good
view as to how his role would be and wit wit Spears out in that
he got pretty much all the work in week six.
They they involved Julius Chestnut a little bit, but
honestly very, very little only to spell Pollard.
And I think that it's kind of like you kind of need that
offense to go to go room and for him to work.
Because if you look, even with all that work, he only had
1212.3 expected points last week.
And even despite consolidating almost everything.
So like, I think, I think that's a good like GPP play where it's
Tony Pollard, they're going to use them a lot.
So you have upside there. But you do have to be mindful of
the the systemic risk with the offense because like that stuff
seems really bad right now, right?
Yeah, yeah, certainly. And yeah, I think that's the
only cold water on Pollard this week.
Good, Good match up, good role. The offense just stinks out
loud. So and, and honestly, I, I was
watching the game 'cause I had some some stuff going in the
their game last week and the only like his, his touchdown was
such a fluke play. It was like a draw play on like
third and 19 or something stupid.
I don't think it was third, maybe third and 13 or something.
It, it was just like it, it wasn't even a you know,
sometimes you see teams call these draw plays when it's third
in forever because they're just trying to like get a little
field position and then they'll kick a field goal or punt or
whatever. They were like well within field
goal range, Like getting a few yards closer to me didn't seem
worth like just basically doing the wave the white flag on 3rd
down, like throw a throw a pass. I mean, I guess you have Will
Levis in your quarterback. So maybe throwing the pass is
waving the white flag, but Pollard just.
You know, breaks a couple terrible arm tackles and then
rumbles into the end zone on what what most teams would
consider like a give up play. So it was a little fluky to me.
So I I think the cold water is probably warranted here where
maybe you don't want to get out over your skis too much on
Pollard, but he does seem to be in a pretty good spot this week.
Yeah, yeah. I, I, I, I agree for sure.
I agree for sure. OK.
The other notes I had for the efficiency charts are for guys
on the next one, so if you want to flip.
Over there, Yeah. Oh oh, I scrolled on the on the
stream yard page, not the our tab, not the not the chart 1.
So the the first note that I had is on Kamara, who currently is
the only guy above the 20 expected fantasy point per week
threshold. So the only guy who, you know,
if we ended the season today would be close to delivering a
legendary season. However, I'm, you know, I'm
worried he's going to be coming back down to earth here pretty
soon. You got the injuries to the
Saints offensive line. You have Derek Carr out for a
couple weeks and Spencer Rattler in, and then you have a pretty
formidable run defense in the Broncos that they are going
against here on Thursday night. So do you think this is the the
beginning of Kamara starting to trend down or will he just get
such an absurd amount of volume that it doesn't?
Matter, I think, I think we're, it, it feels a little bit like
we're we're right now we're looking after Kamara from last
year where yeah, he, he actually does get a really high amount of
volume. Like even last week he had 21.7
expected points and then that equated to 17.4 points.
So even though like efficiency there is horrific, you're still
actually getting decent points. I think there's there probably
is there probably is just inherent risks with somebody
maintaining such a great volume in the face of inefficiency one
way or another. But it's hard to see anybody
coming to like unseat him. Like it's hard to envision them
saying like, OK, time to sorry Camara, it's Kendra time.
And Kendra is going to be active for Thursday and I.
Believe. I'm very excited about that.
Yeah, Kendra, not even on an injury report, which I, I should
hope not. Taysom is a limited participant
on in their Tuesday walkthrough. And and you know, Taysom is
really like he's closer to a running back than he ever has
been before. So I think him and Kendra are
the two largest threats to Kamara keeping this up.
But yeah, I think it's. Like a scam, it's a scam.
People are back is what he is. Yeah, he's so I think the best
way to put it is he's he's not in free fall, but he's probably
not going to be living in this plus 20 expected fantasy points
reach of the chart forever. Right, right.
Like you, you can't project that for the rest of the way.
Yeah. But.
You're getting you're getting a small win where you drafted them
in in basketball. Quick, I, I had a couple quick
hitters here that I don't think we need to spend a ton of time
on. One was just David Montgomery
was going way too low and best well drafts like the guy's role
is not all that much different than Gibbs.
They have different skill sets and they're utilized in
different ways, but like the opportunities that he's getting
compared to the opportunities Gibbs is getting, like they're
similar. David Montgomery just has so
much touchdown equity on the lines.
Got a touchdown in eight straight games with them.
And this is this thing is the most baffling part to me.
But man, the contingent upside stuff is properly priced on guys
that like have no role themselves.
Like for example, on, you know, like the Eli Mitchell types or
like if you if you go back in time to like how Alexander
Madison was priced when he was backing up Dalvin Cook.
Like we priced those guys I think pretty reasonably where
where they don't really have any standalone value, but they have
this huge upside if the starter were to go down.
Those guys, I think we priced just fine.
But guys like David Montgomery or Tyler Algier, like these guys
who have this standalone role that is like not only just like
David Montgomery's role isn't just usable.
You know, when when Gibbs is healthy and, and fully active,
like it's pretty good. And then if Gibbs goes down,
we've seen what happens. David Montgomery becomes like
probably the RV 2 or RV3 for those weeks.
Like the the work is insane. And he's the type of back that
can handle that like over a limited.
Stretch It's the boring box in the 1B role that would probably
own their price. Like it's hard to envision David
Montgomery upside. So it there's nothing that gets
priced in there when like the contingent upside is is almost
the equivalent of of like a similar of a similar.
Prayer and I'm I'm more just saying this to like self
flagellate a little bit because this was a some a discussion
that I had with a bunch of people during the offseason on
why David Montgomery is too low. And I thought he he should be
going a lot higher. And I just I did not have strong
enough conviction myself to get massively overweight on David
Montgomery. I, I relied on, you know, other
people who I, I think are really good at evaluating players.
And I saw the upside case for Gibbs too, which, you know, I
was I was happy to take Jameer Gibbs, But I think we want to be
really careful about letting the upside case of one player blind
us to the upside case of another.
And it's just not a mistake I will be making again, just want
to want to remind myself to consider the full range of
outcomes for every player and not just, you know, hide a
portion of the range of outcomes because it inherently, you know,
means that you're getting a worse outcome for a player that
other people like. So that just just a note that I
had here for David Montgomery and then the other quick note
that I had here was just on Jags backfield.
I mean, you've got Travis ETN here.
He's barely, barely cresting into the 10 expected fantasy
point range here. And and then we already talked
about, you know, the the trouble that you're getting with Deronis
Johnson working in and tank Bigsby, you know, not not
looking like he's ever going to have any kind of role in the
passing game. I kind of think this Jags
backfield might be entirely unusable this season.
They they might just be a team that's bad enough with enough
mouths going there that it's just not a no no guy.
Here is the answer. Damn.
Yeah, Yeah, I, I, I agree with you.
I think we kind of like teased that that was a strong
possibility last week and this week kind of just confirms it.
Yeah, the Dernis Johnson stuff, man, I was, I don't know if you
remember this is a few, I think it was the Jags London game
where I it was after the Bigsby injury where he like still saw
special teams work. And I, I, I KB to projection
really hard and said Dernis Johnson was the running back to
Too bad I didn't do it on this game.
Too bad I was I was right on the read that it was not tanks big V
backfield dominator. It was it was going to be a
committee, but that's OK. Wrong, wrong slate to do it on.
I did want to very briefly touch on Dijon Robinson before we move
on 'cause we had that good question for run good Rick.
He said Bijon's performance got there last week, but it felt
underwhelming. And so you can see Bijon here.
He's like dead center in the chart.
It's right next to James Conner, right next to Najee Harris.
The really unfortunate truth for Bijon so far this season is that
he's not clearly the best runner in his backfield.
And that's not to take anything away from Bijon.
It's or to say that Tyler Algiers been good.
And so it just makes it hard for Bijon to actually dominate the
backfield and get this massive workload.
And it's really frustrating when you you know, you have a guy as
good as Tyler Algier who he's going to take away touchdowns
from Bichon. And he just, I mean, yeah, he's
getting some passing game work. You see, he's got, you know, a
little above 4 expected receiving fantasy points a game.
But it's just it's not enough with Algier butchering it or,
or, you know, kind of cutting up the backfield and taking his
share of it. So I I don't know how I feel
about Bijon. He's probably like, if you look
at him on in the dog bowl this week, he's probably a little
overdrafted, right? Like he's he's going a bit high
right now. And you know, same for BRS in
general, like here. Here's an interesting one.
Bijon Robinson or either of the Lions running backs this week?
And can you guys hear me OK? I can hear you OK.
I can't. I I couldn't hear you for a
minute and I panicked a little. And so my thoughts on on Bijan
is that he actually did play quite well last week.
But like you said, and the Algier out, we were told, is
that the kind of this offseason that like, listen, our plan is
to run the piss out of Bijan Robinson.
But they're, they're clearly they're splitting.
They're splitting the carries. And actually in Week 6, Algier
had more carries than Bijan, which that that's a little
surprising. Bijan had 18 rounds to four.
So I think Bijan's workload is more like a third round back or
like a fourth round back than a first round back.
And you can still get some big upside games from his like big
Spike games from his kind of his talent upside.
But the usage like this is much worse usage than we're expecting
or hoping for. Yeah, yeah.
OK. Let's move on to the tight end
charts here. If we if we cook, we might be
able to get out of here under 2 hours Draco, which would be a
personal record for us. Yeah, that would be, that would
be a record and I feel like we can do it.
Why? Don't you let's like people
listen to this podcast in 2X speed.
Why don't we just talk in 2X speed?
And so we get through this very quickly and why don't you go
ahead? OK, first I think you need to
reshare your screen because the tight end chart is not showing
up. I think when you disconnected
earlier, your screen share may have failed there, but we're
going to continue talking into X speed just for the bit because
it's much more fun to do it this way.
Imagine the person who's hearing me talk at 4X speed, they must
think that I took so, so, so much Adderall before the show.
Now we're about to have the tight end charts up here, but
I'm going to just absolutely keep the verbal diarrhea flowing
again in the bit. Now we've got the tight end
chart on the screen. I will go ahead and give it to
you, Draco, to explain to the folks what they're seeing here.
So this is our tight end utilization and efficiency
chart. On the bottom axis, you've got
percentage of team dropbacks. The green bar I'm actually going
to have to slow down. The green bar corresponds to the
percentage of their team dropbacks that they're running a
route. And then the red bar, or is it a
pink bar? Is that pass blocking?
And so then you get the full picture of of what percentage of
team dropbacks are they on the field for?
And then, and we also give you that focus on when are they
actually running a route. Then we also have a dot and
target sprout run because we want that.
We want them receiving stats to right.
We don't want just like empty calorie routes.
I had a couple notes here on the chart and the bit was very fun
talking at 4X speed, but I'm just going to going to focus on
the analysis here. We'll we'll get through it
regardless. So the first one I have is this
Colby Parkinson 27% targets for route run.
Guy's been having insane amount of targets the last three weeks.
I I'm here to call danger danger Colby Parkinson is about to get
cocked by Cooper cuck if he comes back this week.
So I would just say if you're like doing drafts, if you're
doing BRS, Colby Parkinson looks like a really interesting Scroll
down tight end. I would just say be cognizant.
Don't don't jam a billion percent Colby Parkinson right
now before we find out what the status is of Cooper Cup.
You just might, you might find yourself sitting there with
Colby Parkinson, you know, 12% targets per route run instead of
the 27%. So just want to be very cautious
there. Do you have anything to add on
Colby Parkinson or can I move on to the next guy?
Yeah, I think, I think you can move on and that was good
analysis. Here, here you go.
This is a classic, classic victory lap spot.
So all offseason I was calling Dalton Kincaid fancy Evan
Ingram. And I actually I need to take an
L on that because he is not fancy Evan Ingram.
Dalton Kincaid is just a poor man's Evan Ingram.
Yeah, it's Evan Ingram. Comes back first game, He's
healthy. Guy's just back back on his
bullshit. 31% targets per route run.
Doesn't matter that we have Brian Thomas junior, this
incredible wide receiver on our team.
Evan Ingram is a target magnet, baby.
And he doesn't pass block at all.
I man Evan Ingram, another guy that I I was pretty high on.
And then I got bullied out of this offseason because, oh,
there's really just, you know, low A dot, not super talented,
you know, just you're you're just praying for another 140
target season. We're getting it, baby.
We're getting another 100 plus target season for Evan Ingram
here. Yeah, I just, I think in a
especially in this dysfunctional team like the Evan Ingram safety
blanket stuff, just it hits just right for the Jags so.
Yeah, that makes sense. That makes, that doesn't make
sense. I I do think like some of the
advanced stats for Kincaid are, are somewhat interesting.
Like if you look at him on the full season, he's at 70% right
run, he's got a 7.7 A dot and a 23% target spread run like that
seems like fine. I think it's way when you add
in, it's it's it's before you add in the context of the low
volume, the offense, it's it his it means his price was too high
just offseason. So like he's come in under of
what you hope for and then you layer it in and and he's he's
been a bad pick. But I think he actually, I think
you're right in that like he comes pretty similarly, like
stylistically and you just have a much better environment for
that type of player in the Jaguars than than Kincaid, than
the Bills. Yeah, I mean, this, this stat is
is doing a lot of work for me. But the Bills still have yet to
attempt over 30 passes this season.
They only were below 30 passes twice last year prior to the
offensive coordinator change to Joe Brady.
And they barely, barely beat The Jets while, you know, throwing
under 30 times yet again, man, it's hard to put my finger on
what is going wrong in Buffalo. But maybe if they looked at
their pass rate, they might figure it out.
They just might. But.
Yeah, maybe they should trade for a receiver.
Yeah, yeah, maybe I, I it's gonna be so hilarious when Amari
Cooper goes out there and the Bills still only throw it 26
times in a game. But in all seriousness, Dalton
Kincaid. Because that, that is their
plan. You need, you need a, you need a
coaching change. Or yeah, yeah, yeah.
I think you just need a clean house.
The entire Bills organization need new front office, new head
coach, new offensive coordinator.
I think think the Bills are wasting Josh Allen.
I, I think as an organization, they got bailed out by getting
one of the best values in the draft that you have seen in the
last couple decades and Josh Allen and then now they're just
wasting it. So, but in all seriousness, a
little bit of Kincaid analysis, the role is great.
The talent for the player I'm like not totally sold on, but I,
I don't even, I, I, I don't. Even think the role is great, I
think the role is like. Fine.
Well, I the, the role is great. It's just the volume, the the
offensive volume. Like pretend that you could
transpose this role into a higher pass volume offense.
Like all of a sudden we're pretty excited, right?
Yeah, I mean, just like if I'm the the if he had, if he had an
80% or above route run, I would agree with you.
It's like maybe I'm nitpicking. I'm I am nitpicking here at only
70% on the full year. Like the this Tigers per hour
run in low 20s is like it's too low to be great.
It's, it's, it's good, it's fine.
But you're right, the bigger issue, the bigger issue is the
drop back count. If you if you had a lot more
past attempts here, you'd be feeling a lot better.
About like, imagine, imagine Kincaid on the Seahawks where
they're just out there chucking it.
Like, right, I'd love that. Yeah, the 70% routes, you're
like, don't care if they're throwing 45 * a game, but like,
he's going to get 10 targets. It's fine.
Right. You'd be saying the same thing
about that you are about Evan Ingram.
Right, right. OK, couple, couple more tight
ends. We'll we'll try and go quick.
All right, Jawan Johnson, the Jawan Johnson ascension is here.
I know the the targets for outrun and A dot don't look
impressive. I just need you to ignore the
the previous results that we've gotten and I need you to focus
on the snap count trend. His snaps have been increasing
week over week. And you just get the ultimate,
you know, the perfect storm for Jawan Johnson, who is a
converted receiver to tight end. He's more receiver than tight
end. You know, you see he's he's one
of the guys that pass blocks at a much lower rate than some of
the guys like, you know, Kate Onton or George Kittle, Colby
Parkinson, Dalton Schultz, those guys.
He's not out there primarily for pass blocking.
He's more out there to be running routes.
The number of routes he's running are increasing week over
week. And now you have Chris Olavey
and Rashid Shaheed missing time. I mean, I just think this sets
up Jawan Johnson is about to feast for however long the
Saints are without their top 2 pass catchers.
I think it, yeah, I, I, I think, I think that's right.
I mean, you have to be concerned that even even with those guys
out, his targets per out run was still weak and and has been kind
of weak for his career. And I think that has to be a
concern in the back of your mind.
But as a as a way to play those injuries, Joan Johnson is a
pretty good way to do it. Like especially if you're
talking about underdog where it's happy pure and like you're
most people, you kind of happen to punt tight end anyway.
People like kind of consolidate on their favorites and if you
can get him on their own, like that can be pretty attractive.
But I, I, I still think you have to kind of call out that he's
been a weak target earner in his entire career.
He was a weak target earner even last week and you still have
that kind of risk factor there. Yeah, well, well said.
I think that's the necessary cold water for the Jawan Johnson
breakout. OK, last tight or no, we've got
got two more here, one more on this chart.
Aren't you worried about Sam LaPorte, Trico?
Yeah, Yeah. I think in in week six you, you,
you have to be it was a little easier to be not, not not
impacted. But another week where his his
Roush run just 74% and no, no, no, that's it.
That's it 74% for the full season.
Last week he was at 59% and then just a 5% target for a run like
that's like that's honestly highly concerning, Highly
concerning. It's, I mean, last week, part of
it is just they were, they could do whatever they wanted last
last week was a playground for them, right?
They're just. Yeah.
Shit out of the Cowboys, but it's not like that was an
outlier for Sam LaPorte, you know, like he he wasn't getting
targets before that. So I mean.
Right. And it's not just it's so 74%
and I think if you're projecting it the rest of the way, you
probably do bump that up to 80% when you account for the
injuries he's had. But 11% targets per per route
run like that, and just 6.1 A dot like that, that is like
highly, highly concerning, highly concerning.
Yeah, and I mean, we, we talked about this on a previous show,
but I, I really do think a big part of it is the emergence of
Jameson Williams and that he's just eating into the pie of this
offense. And so.
All right, let's move to the back of tight end chart.
There's just one other guy. We've got a shout out here.
He's at the very top of the chart.
It's David and Joku comically low 2.2 A .20% targets per route
run. Amari Cooper has left, so
there's a bunch of vacated targets there.
I mean, the two point 2A dot is almost like there's, there's
very few circumstances where I'd say, Oh yeah, that's actually a
good thing. But in this circumstance where
his quarterback can't complete a pass more than 5 yards down the
field, 2.2 A dot means that you can at least count on the
targets David and Joku is receiving to be catchable balls.
Otherwise they're just, you know, they're entirely unuseful.
So David and Joku seems like he is due for a little bump here.
I I expect him to be the primary pass catcher for this offense
here without Omari Cooper. It'll if there's a quarterback
change, that could certainly shake things up, But the Browns
have not signaled anything that makes us think that they'll be
changing quarterbacks, even though they should.
Right, right. If anything, the opposite.
And yeah, a change in quarterback would actually
probably be helpful because then the quality of targets, even
even if the quantity of targets went down, the quality would go
up. And but totally makes sense
where it's a garbage offense and and now when targets just have
to be funneled through this guy and he's just going to be
spammed like you have to worry about kind of the re injury
risk. But he he does look pretty
interesting as a as a week to week play.
Yeah. All right, let's move on to
receiver here. Oh, I'll give a give a quick
shout to Jatavion Sanders. We talked about him on the last
show. He turned in a pretty good day,
earned a lot of targets, ran a lot of routes.
He's definitely an interesting player like him as a prospect
managed to earn volume with good target competition and good, you
know, NFL caliber players around him in college.
So he's he's one to to leave a light on forge Tavion Sanders
kind of interesting. It's gonna, it remains to be
seen if he could actually usurp Tommy Trumbull when Trumbull is
healthy. But he certainly, I, I think
last week was the first step he would need to take to to earning
that role. I think it's still an uphill
battle for him, you know, as a rookie to, to be the tight and
one on the team. But last week was the first
thing you would see if it was a guy coming for that job.
So. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Makes sense for sure. Where you had, let me see, 73%
route run last week, 24% targets per out run.
So that's that's pretty positive, pretty positive.
And then so returning to the receiver chart, we have just
beside new A.J. Brown, we have old A.J.
Brown. No surprise.
Yeah, Malik Neighbors, A new, A new challenger approaches Malik
Neighbors in the top right corner of the the weighted
targets per route run and fantasy points per game chart.
So this is a fun one. They play each other this week.
I think it's pretty interesting. I mean, I, I really, I don't
think there's anything more to say other than A.J.
Brown is a very good receiver. Now this is on a much smaller
sample than Malik Neighbors 'cause he missed a bunch of
time. That being said, if all you do
is go out there and score fantasy points and earn targets
the games that you play, you know, I don't think we can say
anything negative about A.J. Brown.
He definitely, you know, entirely unsurprised to see him
in this top right quadrant. A guy that I I liked a lot here
for a potential regression spot is DK Metcalf getting a ton of
targets you can see on the chart for guys that have as high a
weighted targets per route run as he does.
He's got one of the lowest fantasy point per game out of
all of them. I think it's a pretty
interesting Russian spot for him here.
The Falcons. What are what are your thoughts
here on that cap in this matchup?
So who do they play? Who do the Seahawks play again?
I shouldn't. I should definitely know they
play the Falcons and yeah, so Metcalf, I mean, Metcalf is
always going to be interesting in in a GPP and just because he
he's always going to be that like or say he always has been
that kind of profile player where he gets targets deep down
the field. He has the high A dot.
And then let me have a look here on his touchdown stuff.
So on the year and actually on the year, so he's kind of
running neutral on touchdowns and touchdown efficiency.
And which is kind of interesting because if we look at this chart
here, yeah, he so he's at like the 15 and 15 around 15 fantasy
points per game and hasn't done anything crazy on the on the
touchdown front. Yeah, I am.
I guess I don't have any anything special to say about
him other than like he's always he's always an interesting GPP
play. Like I don't sorry, I don't have
more to no, no. That's OK.
The other guy I liked and we talked about this match up
earlier for the 49ers and the Chiefs, but Brandon Iuke also
looking like a pretty good regression candidate here, has
only had the one big game early in the season.
You know, he's I mean, even this last week, he just wasn't
getting very many targets in the the earlier weeks.
I think you could attribute that to him missing training camp,
kind of having a slow start there this last week.
I mean, you're still seeing Jawan Jennings out there like
earning volume 2. So that's it's a little
troubling. It's taking an already spread
out offense and spreading it out even more in the passing game.
I guess really what you're doing is you're taking the Christian
McCaffrey receiving game that the other running backs aren't
providing and it's just going to the receivers now.
But we would we would have hoped that that would consolidate on
Kittle and Debo and IU, but instead it's just going to
Jennings. And so that's been a little, you
know, a little bit tricky, but I do kind of think Iuke is in a,
an interesting spot here. I think that if if this game
goes off, I I just kind of it feels like an Iuke spot to me
with the matchup. Yeah, that makes sense.
So if I look on him, Iuke, he's actually 2 touchdowns under
expected on the year. So you, you pair, I guess that
that goes along with the the off the passing offense in general
being underexpected on touchdowns.
But yeah, he he, he certainly strikes me as a as a fine
regression candidate. I I saw him go at pick 57 in a
dog bowl this week. Yeah, I am.
That was probably the the kind of low watermark and but still
player of his caliber in in in I mean, definitely a game that
could that could and any of these games could go out, but
definitely a high-powered offense.
Yeah, that, that could easily pay off like very decisively in
your favor. Yeah, seems seems pretty absurd
for him to go that late. Let's see the other guy I had
notes on. OK, so Drake London, I think it
it might have been a couple weeks ago where I said something
to the effect of Drake London and Darnell Moody.
We're too close to each other on the chart for me to really
consider. Drake London is like a
substantial difference to Darnell Moody.
And now I need to retract that statement because Drake London
is separating as the most talented receiver on the team.
Definitely more fun for it to be that way.
Like I don't think anyone really enjoyed the Darnell Mooney, Ray
Ray McLeod stuff that we are getting.
It's really fun when Drake London is dominating the targets
like this. He he looks like he is.
I mean, from from these last couple weeks, Drake London looks
like he is on pace to comfortably pay off his tag of
where he was going in basketball drafts when I think earlier in
the season people were pretty worried about him.
What do you think, Draco? So looking at the stats, you got
a pretty healthy 26% targets per run on Drake London on the year.
And then when you equate that to what I've got is the A dot here,
you you would combine that with a 2.1 yard yards per run and 9.8
A dot. Like the A dot is a little bit
low, but 26% target rate run pretty healthy there.
And you have them in the you still have them in the hot.
Like even with with the kind of more moderate A dot you've you
still, yeah, you still haven't in the pretty healthy way the
target sprout run that I mean that that he seems pretty good,
seems pretty good. Like you're getting you're
definitely getting a really strong season from Drake London
here. And you have to be you have to
be happy with what you're getting here.
And I know there was, like you said last week, there was some
concern over whether he really was like one of the best
receivers in the NFL. But I, I, I think that's
starting to play out. I guess the one thing I'd note.
And so Darnell Mooney still at 20% target spread run.
And so like you're still getting a good, there's that's still a
good start for Darnell Mooney and, and would prefer to look at
it over like that kind of like longer time horizon.
And I know this chart is too and but it's good to see that it's
not like A1A1B thing here that they are starting to separate.
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. All right.
Those are all my notes for this chart.
We can go ahead and move on to the next one.
And so these are the guys where they're 70 to 85% richer.
This one, the first guy that sticks out to me is Josh Downs,
who looks like he's, he's the wide receiver one on the Colts
by my assessment. He just looks, he looks like the
better player on the field. I know Pittman's dealing with
the back injury and also the offense just looks so different
under Joe Flacco than what it's going to look like with Anthony
Richardson. But Josh Downs just looks like
the better receiver and and I know that all offseason that was
something Pat was really pounding the table for when
whenever we had our rankings calls, he Pat was not shy about
telling us that even though we had Michael Pittman, you know,
ranked almost a, you know, two rounds past the ADP, Pat thought
he should be even later because he didn't see much of A talent
difference between him and Josh Downs.
And that's looking like it's it's coming to fruition here.
So Josh Downs is a really interesting player though,
because I don't know how useful he's going to be with Richardson
as the quarterback. Now, Downs and Richardson did
have a pretty good connection, but we we haven't gotten to see
them play together for very many games.
So it's interesting to me. I I'm curious, So what do you
think on on Downs Trico? Is he someone where we should
expect this production to decrease with Richardson taking
back over? Yeah.
So with Richardson taking over, you get less pass attempts per
drop back. So even even with drop back
staying the same, there's going to be lost pass attempts and you
got a lower completion percentage and you do get deeper
passes. And I suppose that that is the
concern with Josh Downs. He's this kind of smaller slot
receiver type that does mesh really well with Flacco and much
better than Anthony Richardson. But, you know, maybe, yeah,
maybe somebody like Josh Downs is kind of like suitable to
Anthony Richardson too, where he can kind of get like a reliable
receiver that he knows is going to be open short.
And. And so maybe it's not as
efficient as as Flacco, but he's clearly a very good player.
He's a very strong, like strong real life reality player and his
team has to find a way to use that.
So I, I, I don't think it's going to crater or anything like
that. And but I, I, I do agree with
you that and with Richardson back that that, that that does
become a concern. Yeah, the the one guy I want to
point out, so Josh Downs played in college with Drake May as his
quarterback. And Drake May has has gushed
about how, you know how fantastic Josh Downs was?
You know, he was his favorite target in college.
The guy who is now catching passes for Drake May and
operating in that same way that Josh Downs did is Demario
Douglas, who has a really good game, puts together a really
good run after the catch where May hits him in stride across
the middle of the field in the splash zone.
Like beautifully executed play by both May and Douglas.
And it looks like Douglas might be the one to come out of this
with the largest boost, the most to gain from the quarterback
switch for the Patriots. So I think this is a kind of
interesting question. Josh Downs versus Demario
Douglas, who we can just call Drake Mays, new Josh Downs.
Oh my God, Who do you like better rest of season?
Do you like real Josh Downs or do you like new Josh Downs?
It's it has to be Demario Douglas.
When you factor in like, like if with the same quarterback, you
have to prefer Josh Downs, but Drake may like Anthony
Richardson is such a negative to have a quarterback like he is
such a negative point to your fantasy production that you do
like you have to you have to prefer the guy playing with
Drake May like, I don't see how you can think about it any other
way. Yeah, I I definitely agree.
OK, one other guy I had on this chart that I thought was pretty
interesting for this week is Jordan Addison.
I mean, he, he missed the early parts of the season with an
injury, but you get him off the by here.
He's I, I think it's safe to assume he's fully healthy now.
I mean, this just this kind of feels like a pretty fun spot for
Addison. You know, I, I haven't, haven't
looked at the game total yet. I would assume this is one of
the higher totals. This just seems like a really
good spot for Addison. You know, and he's, he's coming
in in a part of the chart. Yeah, goddamn it.
Yeah, Well, well, long, long and short of it.
I like the spot for Addison. He's in a really favorable part
of the chart. He's got lots of good company
around him, guys like Deonte Johnson, Brian Thomas, Junior,
Mike Evans, CD Lamb. So I, I think this is a pretty
good spot for Addison. I will.
I'll go ahead and move on to the next guy.
I don't know if you can hear me now.
Jalen Polk was another one. I had a note on here slightly
concerned he's dead because he's just, he's looked pretty bad at
all the advanced metrics. He's had a a lot of drop issues
too, which that's, that's not great.
I, I was going to ask you if you think, if you think that Hulk is
dead and buried or if we need to give it more time with may.
I know you're having some technical difficulties here.
My, my read on the situation is it's not looking great for Jalen
Polk. If I were adjusting my prior,
I'm definitely adjusting it down.
But I I do think that it's probably something where we
don't want to be too hasty to just bury this rookie wide
receiver who's supposed to be pretty talented, played with two
other NFL caliber receivers. I'm back.
OK. But yeah, Jalen Polk, is he dead
and buried or do we need to give it more time with May?
Is Jalen Polk dead and buried? So let me look at the let me
look at the Patriots snap stuff from last week.
So Jalen Polk down to a 69% route share last week.
So I doubt that to me would suggest so.
And that's, that's down from 97% the week before and 87% the week
before that. That would kind of suggest to
me. So at 70%, even though the coach
is kind of burying him, that would kind of suggest that the
coach still the, the team still sees him as important.
He's going to play, but he has to play better.
And I, I, I like with a rookie, you don't want to bury them
straight away because they have lots of time to kind of figure
it out. But I think the leash has to be
pretty short. If you're seeing Drake may come
in and kind of like elevate the offense.
Other guys are getting there and then poke is still in the cold
then and you. No excuses left.
Yeah, yeah, I think, I think I'm probably, again, like you said,
you don't want to bury him too fast.
But after this, this Jags game where they get a really good
match up, I I sure hope to see something from him.
Otherwise my Polk basketball bags will be very sad.
Yeah. We'll, we'll, we'll be sad if,
if it doesn't get there, but that's, that's the risk.
You run rookies right? Yes, the charts are not up on
the screen, by the way, when you came back in, I think they came
down. If you're able to share those.
Our last one, there's one guy I had on this one and then we can
go to the final chart. George Pickens sitting here with
an absurd weighted targets per route run granted is in a very
low volume offense, which we talked about this with the, you
know, in the context of the Bills and why Dalton Kincaid,
although his role in other offenses would probably be
pretty favorable in a really low pass volume offense, it's just
not enough. George Pickens kind of in a
similar situation. The difference between Pickens
and Kincaid in my mind though, is that I think George Pickens
is a really talented player. I think Kincaid is probably like
better than bad, but not great. I think Pickens could like
legitimately be great in the right circumstances.
I just don't know, like for me, I, I struggle with with guys
like this because it's like, man, he, he can very clearly
with this opportunity, like if they just get into a game where
they're trailing and the game just plays out right.
Like he has absolutely nuclear weeks in his range, right?
But most of the weeks, you're just probably, yeah, like,
that's a quick way to sync an otherwise good lineup if you're
playing George Pickens. So is this the kind of guy where
should we just be playing George Pickens every week?
Like, do we pay the George Pickens tax for when it
eventually gets there? What do you think?
So a lot of this Utris stuff doesn't seem too bad.
It definitely seems more encouraging than Kincaid.
So you do get it. You do get Turkey tree drop box
for the team last week and you're on an average of 32 point
2.7 for the year. And there was a lot of noise
about his route share in week 5 or snap share.
I think his snap share was something like in in the high
50s. His route share was 65%.
If you look at the route share for the full year and I think
that's how we we kind of show him in this range.
He's at 81% and then his target sprout run is in the high 20s.
So I think that's pretty good at underlying metrics and, and a
lot of that kind of suggests like a very good player, which
is kind of what you're saying. And, and you've definitely
gotten some like the, the, the other piece of it is, is that
his area yards. So you had 120 area yards in
week six, 152 in Week 4. So like there's definitely games
there where the area yards is enough to produce like a strong
fantasy performance. You are going to get a lot of
volatility here though, because of the yeah, because of the
nature of the offense. And I don't know if I'm going to
pay a tax for this, but this seems like very, this upside
seems very tangible like, whereas Kincaid, like you're the
Kincaid upside is a prayer, whereas this is, this is true
real upside. It just it's going to be
volatile week to week. It's how I read it.
Yeah, I think, I think that is perfectly put, right.
Couldn't, couldn't set it better.
All right, let's hit the last chart and we're going to get to
talk about your favorite player here, Draco, and that is Troy
Franklin. So Troy Franklin kind of poppin
in his weighted targets per route run.
Is that Troy Franklin's music I hear?
I think, I think we're getting Troy Franklin music.
I don't know if I don't know if I remembered to say this in in
the last show and I kind of set it in the Discord, but his even
on the low route stuff, his underlying usage has actually
been pretty good. And the only thing so here's
here's the so I've got good news and bad news about week 6.
So good news about week 6 is that he was up to a 68% route
share. Bad news is that that came with
a drop off to 11% target run and in prior weeks he'd been at
424429 percent. And so it, it is a bit more
concerning to see the the per route efficiency so far.
Like obviously it's it's, it's not going to be at 4244%, but
it's a little bit concerning to see it drop off to 11%.
But I think what we've got here is we've got Troy Franklin, a
starting wide receiver for the Broncos.
He's played after getting like fucking dog walked all
offseason. He's played himself into a role
now. And his his A dot is strong.
He's getting targets deep down the field.
So I think, like I think that this makes for a pretty
worthwhile bench stash, pretty strong bench stash actually.
Yeah, you, you talked about the good news and bad news.
I, I hate to do this to you 'cause I also really like Troy
Franklin and want him to be a thing.
But I think there is worse news. And the worst news is you can
track why the, the target share went down so much or the targets
per route run, excuse me, went down so much.
And it's because Devon Bailey was active for the first time
since Week 1. And Devon Bailey, target
dominator for the Denver Broncos, is out here eating Troy
Franklin's lunch. Just like in training camp.
Devon Delay is out here just mossing dudes.
In all seriousness, I I do think that if you made me rank the
Broncos receivers who would be the most fantasy relevant for
the rest of season, it's obviously Cortland Sutton.
Number one. It's probably Devon Bailey #2
and then it's Troy Franklin #3 and then I mean, Marvin Mims is
just keeping the ship chasing curse alive and well because
Marvin Mims is like, never heard of him, you know?
Who, Right, right a bit, a bit role player in the offense.
If you want to talk about the ship chasing curse though, there
is one force in the world that is stronger than the ship
chasing curse and it is the Doctor Jesse Morse reverse mush
of Christian Watson. In case you did not follow this
on Twitter, Doctor Jesse Morse came out and said something
where he had diagnosed Christian Watson with a high ankle sprain
simply from watching the video. And Christian Watson's dad
replied and let him know that actually you're incorrect.
The doctors who have diagnosed Christian Watson had taken Mris
on his ankle and examined him have said no, it's not a high
ankle sprain and he'll likely be back soon.
To which Doctor Jesse Morse argued with Christian Watson's
dad over the diagnosis of the injury.
A great, great bit. Absolutely fantastic.
Of course, Christian Watson comes back, puts up a touchdown
in his first game back. Yeah.
I mean, I, I, I think this is a interesting, interesting spot
for Christian Watson. You got the Dobbs injury.
Excuse me? You got the Wicks injury.
Jaden Reed also injured. The the Jaden Reed stuff is
really interesting because he's a guy who plays through, he's
played through a lot of injury last year.
Like they basically couldn't keep him off the field.
If he was at all capable of playing, he would play, but what
they do when he would play is he was, it really was much more of
a decoy role. Like his usage was much lower,
like substantially lower in the games when he was dealing with
those injuries. He'd also, you know, he'd get
fewer routes, etcetera. So I, I think it's something to
watch this week. I mean, if you, if you want me
to kind of like pull my crystal ball out here, I think what
we're very likely to see is Jane Reed plays.
He's much less involved than he would be if he were healthy.
And I think you see a lot more of it go through, you know,
Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft, Romeo Dobbs, I think all of
those guys get a pretty good bump this week.
And I I Christian Watson is the one I'm pretty interested in.
That that makes sense. Just that I, I, I just want to,
I know I'm going back in time here.
So Troy Franklin had 11% targets per out run at valet only had a
17%. So it it wasn't, it wasn't
dramatically off. Yeah, he did.
He did run more routes though and get and get more raw
targets. But but yes, they're not in the
targets per out run. They're not worlds apart.
You're, you're talking about the difference between 68% red share
and a 71% like I, I think that's pretty close.
OK, I, I thought it was farther apart than that, so I am, I'm
happy to be wrong there. I, I would love to see Troy
Franklin become a thing. That would be very good for me.
Right, I, I, I think, I think you you've got a good chance
that he that he will like I don't think I think that makes
valet a good bench such too. But I think they're both,
they're both intriguing. Yeah, we also, I don't have a
note on this guy, but before we wrap up, we probably should
shout out bub memes here. Let me let me just hit all I'm
going to hit all the Saints stuff, bub Memes Mason Tipton
probably the two that the two receivers that I'd be most
interested in here as the Saints deal with the Olave and heat
injuries. So yeah, memes, Tipton, Jawan,
Johnson, I think all three of those guys are the ones that
received the largest bump from the injuries.
Would not be surprised at all if if Taysom Taysom Hill is active
to see him be a pretty big participant in the offense as
well, just as they try and find guys that they can give touches
to. Yeah, yeah, makes sense.
Makes sense for sure. Was there anyone else on this
chart that you wanted to shout out, or should we wrap it up
here? We should probably touch maybe
we've touched on him enough almost every show, but Liget
continues to be interesting. He's up.
I mean, he's up to an 80% targets per out run now.
So I, I, and I know there's some injuries in that offense, but
he, he, he's played himself into a role.
He's in the on, on the full year.
And the way to target, target threat running is in the like
50% range. So like that, that seems pretty
encouraging for a rookie like that.
Definitely feels like there's a yeah, a breakout story there.
Would have loved if that breakout story happened last
week because that would have been a dog bowl seat for me.
Just couple points short there with Xavier Leget in my my best
lineup. But that's OK.
Don't, don't print in the newspaper that I'm at.
Yeah. But have you considered that he
has a 19% tariff run on the year?
Like you should actually be happy.
Yeah, I know. I'm very, I'm very happy.
My Sklansky bucks or I just I'm rolling in the Sklansky's right
now. But with that, I think we'll go
ahead and wrap it up. If you made it to the end, we
appreciate you. Hope that you took something
away from this show. Good luck in this week and we
did not hit our goal of under 2 hours, but we were we were
directionally accurate. Yeah, we, we, yeah, we're
directionally, we got Skolanski bucks in in our under 2 hours
'cause I think this is the shortest show all season.
Yeah. All right.
Well, we will see you all next week.
Have a good one, everybody. See you next week, everyone.