1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:07,360 We are over 1/3 of the way through the season with week six 2 00:00:07,360 --> 00:00:11,240 behind us and Baker Mayfield is the quarterback 2. 3 00:00:11,400 --> 00:00:19,720 Just like we all predicted. This is stat chasing Pat Fryer 4 00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:22,800 Helmo. This is what This is what I'm 5 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:24,880 Pat. Anita hand job. 6 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:27,680 Fix your side, Jamar. Alpha. 7 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:30,440 Play Chase. Are you kidding me? 8 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:34,160 You can't handle the heat? It looks like we're finally at 9 00:00:34,160 --> 00:00:34,920 this point. You're right. 10 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:47,200 How you doing, Draco? Doing good, Doing good. 11 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:49,320 How about you? I'm doing. 12 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:54,560 Well, I know you were telling me this weekend that your advance 13 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:59,200 rates are starting to come up and look pretty good and not 20. 14 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:02,680 Percent now I mean I don't, I don't actually take a hold that 15 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:06,520 20% like I think I've just been marked say from Sequan 2 weeks 16 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:09,000 in a row now. Yeah. 17 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:13,600 And I have a bunch of like I have a bunch of, I have a bunch 18 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:16,400 of teams that are in 2nd place and not many teams that are in 19 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,360 3rd place. So that probably, yeah, balance 20 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:21,960 itself out. But from feeling like oh shit, 21 00:01:21,960 --> 00:01:27,520 I'm going to have 12% to being 20I, I'm pretty I'm pretty happy 22 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:30,520 with that. I'd love to know how that feels. 23 00:01:33,960 --> 00:01:37,720 Yeah, just surprising relief. Yeah, in in all seriousness, my 24 00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:41,600 FFTC stuff that I, I did the majority of that with you is is 25 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:45,120 looking much better now. It's just everywhere else that 26 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:48,400 I'll be poor. So yeah, I don't, I, I actually, 27 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:52,560 I don't understand why the FFPC stuff is like so much better 28 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,240 than. Oh, I understand why the FFPC 29 00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:57,280 stuff is so much better. Oh please tell me. 30 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:02,040 Oh, it's 'cause we're drafting of people who they're thought 31 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:05,560 that they had was in 2002, you know, like you're. 32 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:08,360 Yeah, you're right. That's kind of like the that's 33 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:13,000 the there, that's the FFPC, the thesis in action. 34 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:17,280 Yeah. Anyway, people. 35 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:19,920 People are regularly taking Marvin Harrison, Overtrey 36 00:02:19,920 --> 00:02:25,680 McBride on FFPC, which is, I mean, it didn't make sense 37 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:28,720 considering the range of outcomes and isn't and certainly 38 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:31,600 is not looking good given the specific outcome that we're 39 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:32,240 getting. So. 40 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:39,040 No and no, not not at all. But we'll, we'll go ahead and 41 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:43,560 get into some charts tonight. I don't know why the bottom line 42 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:48,480 of my screen here is like chamfered, but it's probably the 43 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:50,840 shape. Oh, OK, OK, looking OK now. 44 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:54,880 So here we've got quarterback volume and efficiency and 45 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:56,440 rushing. So we're trying to hit all the 46 00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:58,480 major points of quarterback play. 47 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:03,360 We've got efficiency from passing, we've got our rushing 48 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:05,520 upside in the size of the bubble. 49 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:09,560 And then on the horizontal axis, we we kind of look at volume 50 00:03:09,920 --> 00:03:14,320 who, who's getting the most expected points or fantasy 51 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:20,800 points from passing. I as we look at this chart, I 52 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:24,520 mean, Lamar Jackson immediately stands out to me. 53 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:28,720 I mean, I'm pretty sure that the M in Lamar stands for MVP. 54 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:33,320 This guy is playing incredibly. I I just had an idea for the 55 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:36,520 chart. I I might have to fiddle around 56 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:38,360 with this on it. It might not be an immediate 57 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:43,240 change, but what do you think of rather than having the size of 58 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:47,360 the bubble indicate rushing yards, if I had like a vector 59 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:51,680 that indicated where they would be in total expected points, 60 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:53,120 just adjusting for the rushing yards. 61 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:57,800 So like Lamar here is averaging, you know, over 100 rushing yards 62 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:02,440 a game or about. And so he's, you know, his total 63 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:05,360 expected points are going to be like close to 24 then. 64 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:08,920 So he's just, if you, if you looked at Lamar's total expected 65 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:10,360 points, he's just off the charts. 66 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:17,880 Right, right. And I, I, I the only thing about 67 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:20,000 that and we, we can look at different ways. 68 00:04:20,079 --> 00:04:24,480 I do worry that it might be a little bit too messy, seeing as 69 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:26,840 how many dots we have already. Yeah, the arrows. 70 00:04:26,840 --> 00:04:28,600 The arrows would get pretty crowded. 71 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:30,480 I think you're right. Think you're right? 72 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:36,520 I don't want to be right. That sounds really fun and but 73 00:04:36,840 --> 00:04:41,560 that that would be my concern. So Lamar Jackson, he is just 74 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:45,960 just break this down. He's at 120.5 expected points 75 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:53,760 and, and he's actually scored 151.6 points, which is QB one on 76 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:59,680 the season so far, but he's actually Jaden Daniels has more 77 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:05,760 expected points at 125.7. Brock Purdy is at 118, Joe 78 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:09,840 Burrow at 1:15. This is fake news, but Bo Nick's 79 00:05:09,840 --> 00:05:16,640 at 114, Justin Fields at 1:13. So I, I, I don't know that that 80 00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:20,240 that actually feels like to me more that some of these 81 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:24,600 quarterbacks are just playing really well, like Jane Daniels, 82 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:26,440 Lamar Jackson playing really well. 83 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:29,640 And, and that, that that's because of probably their talent 84 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:31,000 and, and maybe some of their matchups. 85 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:38,720 But I, I, I, I, I, I think you're right. 86 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:44,000 I, I agree that that Lamar is kind of like the, the, the QB 87 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:47,760 one like project easily projected rest of the way. 88 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:54,000 But I, I actually, I think we do a good job with this chart, I 89 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:58,440 guess is what I'm saying. No, Yeah, I think, I mean, as 90 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:02,160 far as charts that are telling you how fantasy friendly a 91 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:06,320 quarterback is, I think this one is the most intuitive. 92 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:11,560 And yeah, there there must be something off with the rushing 93 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:14,240 calculation there though, 'cause I, I just went and checked and 94 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:17,120 Lamar's averaging just under 70 rushing yards a game. 95 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:20,320 Maybe it's because his, his bubble is far away from the 96 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:22,600 reference bubble. So I, I'm just like getting a 97 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:24,720 visual trick. They don't mean I'm gonna I'm 98 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:26,240 gonna check the code on the chart. 99 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:27,720 Yeah, Yeah. That's a good call. 100 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:30,640 That's a rare call 'cause I when I was looking at that I was like 101 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:32,080 I need to double check that number. 102 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:36,000 But I mean, it's still gonna be a good visual representation 103 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:39,800 because you're looking at the the, yeah, you're looking at the 104 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:43,600 relative to each other. But yeah, maybe, maybe, maybe 105 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:46,920 it's as simple as just changing the 100 yards per game bubble to 106 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:48,720 be bigger. Because I, I kind of like how it 107 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:50,320 is now. I wouldn't want these guys to be 108 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:53,000 smaller. Yeah, I'll, I'll have to look 109 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:55,760 into that. But I don't think we need to say 110 00:06:55,760 --> 00:07:00,720 anything more about Lamar. I mean, if you're the thing, 111 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,760 last year we, we were like pounding the table for Lamar 112 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:07,600 like all year because he kept just getting vultured on 113 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:11,680 touchdowns and his his actual fantasy output wasn't really 114 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:14,960 meshing with where he should be producing 'cause he just kept 115 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:18,040 getting vultured on touchdowns. It was really easy to identify 116 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:21,680 that as like smash spot, Just play it, you're gonna get there 117 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:25,680 eventually kind of kind of spot. This year I feel like it's a lot 118 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:31,000 less under the radar, but I also still think like Lamar could 119 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:35,120 have an even larger game. You know, like all you need is 120 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:38,560 for Derrick Henry to not get a touchdown in the game and for it 121 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:42,160 to go to Lamar and for him to have his his typical performance 122 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:44,480 otherwise. And like you're accessing a 123 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:51,680 ceiling that it frankly isn't accessible to really very many 124 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:56,640 quarterbacks in in this season. It seems like the the ceilings 125 00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:59,720 for most of these guys are just a lot lower. 126 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:05,040 I mean, even some of the rushing quarterbacks like I, I don't 127 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:07,880 want to say that Josh Allen never can hit that ceiling 128 00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:10,240 again. It just it just comes pretty 129 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:13,920 purely from rushing touchdowns. And then I, I feel like that's 130 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:19,080 Jalen Hurts is kind of in between Lamar and Allen where 131 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:22,600 his he certainly gets access to like his highest ceiling 132 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:24,320 outcomes from getting the rushing touchdowns. 133 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:27,160 But now that he has his pass taking weapons back, we just saw 134 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:30,000 a really good example of it this week with A.J. 135 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:33,840 Brown where he and and Devonta Smith, they're both able to get 136 00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:36,280 loose and contribute and help out his production there. 137 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:44,000 Just one thing. So Lamar, his his fantasy points 138 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:49,040 over expected per PFF is five points per game, but he can 139 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:51,920 certainly deliver a game where he's like 20. 140 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:55,560 Yeah. Like like that that that that 141 00:08:55,560 --> 00:08:59,200 can happen. The quarterback that I thought 142 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:02,840 was really interesting is one of the other best quarterbacks on 143 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:08,000 the chart, Brock Purdy, who put together another very solid 144 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:11,440 performance last Thursday against the Seahawks. 145 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:15,200 This week he gets a much tougher defense. 146 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:18,640 I think we all thought the Seahawks defense was was pretty 147 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:22,800 strong, but it it certainly hasn't been shaking out that way 148 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:27,160 on these last couple weeks. But Purdy plays the Chiefs this 149 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:29,880 week. What do you think about him in 150 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:36,560 this spot? So he is certainly Purdy is 151 00:09:36,560 --> 00:09:38,080 certainly a regression candidate. 152 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:40,720 He is. I think he's less than a, he's 153 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:43,880 more than a touchdown under expected. 154 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:50,360 Let me confirm that. Yeah, he, he's more, he's OK. 155 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:53,840 So he's .7 touchdowns underexpected. 156 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:58,000 So he's running cold on touchdowns despite inefficient 157 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:04,200 play with with a 10.2 A dot A and an 8.8 adjusted yards per 158 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:07,160 10th. The online has played really, 159 00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:10,400 really well. It's for ESPN. 160 00:10:10,680 --> 00:10:12,920 They're four in pass block win rate. 161 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:15,720 So all of that is kind of really encouraging. 162 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:24,120 The one kind of caution I have is that the, the pass blocking 163 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:29,280 grades for the 49ers are they're they're still good, but they're 164 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:32,840 not like as they're, they're closer to mid table than like 165 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:38,840 top of the table. And for the, for the 49ers and, 166 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:41,080 and, and that kind of suggests that they've been able to 167 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:43,760 dominate by playing kind of weaker pass rushes. 168 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:50,040 And and then they get the Chiefs, who it's just like you, 169 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:52,200 you've got Chris Jones there and, and it's just like 170 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:59,640 dominating pass rush. So I guess like it's kind of 171 00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:03,720 like a nuance there where I like really like Purdy as a GPP play 172 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:08,120 on the season, but I do worry about this specific matchup 173 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:11,320 where like he's had a really high time to throw. 174 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:14,120 So his time to throw has been 3.35 seconds. 175 00:11:14,680 --> 00:11:17,680 Like that's higher than Lamar, that's higher than Josh Allen, 176 00:11:17,680 --> 00:11:22,560 Jayden Daniels, like that's actually the highest of any 177 00:11:22,560 --> 00:11:27,120 quarterback this season. And because his his, his pass 178 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:30,640 and blockers have been able to play so well, if they struggle 179 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:33,120 against the Chiefs that that could be a big problem. 180 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:37,360 I definitely see the path for the bottom to fall out for the 181 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:40,160 49ers against a really good Chiefs defense with Purdy's high 182 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:43,600 time to throw. Honestly, what it what it makes 183 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:46,840 me want to do is I'm really interested in the Chiefs defense 184 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:52,200 just because the Chiefs run defense is graded 8th overall by 185 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:56,640 PFF and you've got Mason dealing with the AC joint sprain. 186 00:11:57,040 --> 00:12:00,320 So even if he's active, I think they'll they'll be mixing in 187 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:02,120 some of the other backs a little bit more. 188 00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:06,040 And I, I just don't know how much success they can have on 189 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:08,240 the ground. Even though the 49ers have a 190 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:12,560 really great run game, I'm just not terribly confident they can 191 00:12:12,560 --> 00:12:14,400 get it done against the Chiefs there. 192 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:17,640 And so if they're having to drop back to pass, there's definitely 193 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:21,600 a lot of volatility there with the high time to throw where and 194 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:23,600 if they're it's. It's a bad matchup. 195 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:28,640 They're the 49ers, a great offense, like they will have 196 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:33,160 very efficient passing days and you can and, and there's there's 197 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:36,880 outcomes where they dominate, but it's a bad matchup. 198 00:12:37,680 --> 00:12:41,960 Yeah, Now to me, on paper, it does kind of look like the way 199 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:45,240 that you have to beat the Chiefs though, is through the air. 200 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:49,720 They're again, they're rushing defense graded 8th by PFF, their 201 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:51,400 coverage grade. They're all the way down at 202 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:53,080 20th. So they're just middle of the 203 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:56,480 pack there. I'm wondering if this could be a 204 00:12:56,480 --> 00:13:01,320 spot where the 49ers are forced to take to the air and maybe if 205 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:04,640 Purdy ends up running even neutral in this spot you get a 206 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:08,480 really big blow up game for him. So I think it's interesting. 207 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:10,600 I definitely see the volatility there. 208 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:13,760 Also curious as and. Maybe the game plan for the 209 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:16,400 Chiefs, maybe they don't have like one of the largest time to 210 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:19,040 throw in the league. Maybe they get it out of his 211 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:22,000 hands quick and they get a debo, they get a Kittle, they get the 212 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:24,040 iuke. That's certainly a good group of 213 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:27,240 players to rely on yards after the catch. 214 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:32,200 Yeah, I believe Chiefs defensive position or defense versus 215 00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:35,480 position ranking against tight end is they're they're one of 216 00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:36,840 the better matchups in the league. 217 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:39,800 So that definitely makes it interesting for Kittle. 218 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:43,920 I'm curious what you think about the other side of this matchup, 219 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:47,000 though with Mahomes. I think in the game scripts 220 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:52,080 where Purdy and the 49ers are successful through the air, this 221 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:55,800 might be an interesting spot for Mahomes, but I'm curious what 222 00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:59,040 you think there. Yeah, I'm, I'm a little bit 223 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:07,080 jaded on on Mahomes, I have to say, just because it's been such 224 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:14,960 a rough sledding and he's been like by his metrics, he's been 225 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:19,720 pretty average. And it doesn't seem like the the 226 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:22,600 past catching group is getting any better. 227 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:26,840 You have Travis Kelsey there and then it's what Juju Smith 228 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:35,320 Schuster. I I I, I, I do I have it, I have 229 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:37,560 it tough one with with that for sure. 230 00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:43,320 And, and, and, and maybe that's a maybe maybe that's a sign that 231 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:46,920 I'm I'm too kind of like low on the chiefs this year. 232 00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:56,280 But the. The what you call it, the 233 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:59,120 chief's defense isn't bad. It's not like some sort of 234 00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:01,200 matchup. No, no, no. 235 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:03,640 The 49ers defense, you mean. Yeah, the 49ers. 236 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:04,560 Their. Their. 237 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:05,280 Run. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 238 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:06,320 That is what I meant. Thank you. 239 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:09,120 Their run defense has left a lot to be desired. 240 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:11,360 Now. They grade pretty poorly in run 241 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:14,280 defense and they've had some injuries in their defensive 242 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:18,000 front. But I mean, watching the 243 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:22,240 watching the game against the Seahawks, they look pretty stout 244 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:25,840 against the run to me. I mean, I don't want to base it 245 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:29,880 too much off A1 game sample, but man, the Seahawks really seemed 246 00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:32,640 to want to establish it early in the game and they were just 247 00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:36,360 running into the teeth of that 49ers defense and it was not 248 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:38,480 working. And I don't know if that says 249 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:41,800 more about the Kenneth Walker success rate stuff that we've 250 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:43,200 known about him for his whole career. 251 00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:47,080 Where, hey, it's just like Kenneth Walker's gonna, you 252 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:50,960 know, fizzle out on a bunch of runs and then he breaks off the 253 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:53,840 occasional really special ones. And that's, that's what makes 254 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:57,720 him who he is. Or if maybe the the 49ers run 255 00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:01,440 defense on paper is not as bad as it is in real life. 256 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:04,400 What I was really surprised by was the if. 257 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:07,400 It is a weak point though. Sorry I'm I'm sorry for 258 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:08,320 interpreting you. Go ahead. 259 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:12,000 Their, their coverage grade is much better and that was 260 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:13,840 something that they had struggled with last year. 261 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:18,280 So I I guess I'm surprised to see them turn it around so. 262 00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:20,240 Start it's top five. Yeah. 263 00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:22,880 It's like their their, their coverage grade is sport in the 264 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:25,480 league. So that would kind of suggest 265 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:29,720 that the and and maybe we're getting 2IN in in the weeds and 266 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:32,720 potential game scripts, but that would kind of suggest that the 267 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:35,680 Chiefs will try to run it. Right, yeah. 268 00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:38,480 So I definitely can see the paths from this one failing. 269 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:42,680 I I was curious though on this one for you, but. 270 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:47,320 Yeah, yeah, On paper, in, in, in a year ago, we would have been 271 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:49,200 salivating about this kind of matchup. 272 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:53,040 But some of the, some of the, some of the pieces on it now 273 00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:58,240 seem kind of it it, it, it does kind of feel like now like one 274 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:01,640 of those classic games where like the Chiefs just turned it 275 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:04,000 into a dogfight. Like, they do, they do this a 276 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:07,440 handful of times a year where the Chiefs just turn it into a 277 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:10,520 dogfight and it's like 10-6 or something stupid like that. 278 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:14,079 Yeah, what you're saying is we could see a heaping helping of 279 00:17:14,079 --> 00:17:17,280 Kareem hunt this game. Yeah, yeah. 280 00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:20,319 We could be looking at 25 touches for 70 yards. 281 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:27,880 Moving on to actually a pair of quarterbacks that both are are 282 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:31,200 in a pretty similar spot on the chart and happen to play each 283 00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:35,640 other this week and that's CJ Stroud and Jordan Love. 284 00:17:36,360 --> 00:17:39,800 Curious what you think of each of these guys heading into this 285 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:41,720 week and how do you like this? Match up. 286 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:46,960 So my, my first reaction when I, when I looked over these guys, 287 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:51,160 when you look at how did their team's offenses play, it's a 288 00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:54,920 little bit of a Spider Man meme of needing to be pushed. 289 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:59,840 And so they need to be behind to pick up the volume. 290 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:03,920 And so I, I, I do wonder if you could get one of those games 291 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,720 where like one of them, one of them builds up a lead, gets 292 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:10,600 pushed, pushed by the other, and then maybe it bounces back and 293 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:13,720 forward. But that does seem like, yeah, 294 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:17,200 that does seem like a tricky part to get for the volume to 295 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:19,840 get there. They couldn't both be they can 296 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:24,040 both get there on efficiency, but I, I, I don't, I don't think 297 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:27,200 I need to belabor how good and how how like efficient they've 298 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:28,680 been. They've both been excellent 299 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:29,920 quarterbacks. They've both been very 300 00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:35,920 efficient, but I do I I do how how do you how would you think 301 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:37,760 about something where like they're they're both kind of 302 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:39,720 neutral pass right over expected. 303 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:44,600 Yeah, well, so in in Pat's walkthrough last week, he's 304 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:49,520 talking about how Jordan love his has really been like more 305 00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:52,160 along the lines of like middling this season. 306 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:55,480 This was prior to to last week. And it kind of surprised me. 307 00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:58,000 I know we had we only had a couple games for him because he 308 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:01,000 got hurt. But looking at at what Pat went 309 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,200 over, he's like, OK, like that, that makes sense. 310 00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:06,600 He really, I, I think in our heads we were thinking of him 311 00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:08,440 better than he actually had been. 312 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:11,480 Then he goes out and puts up a really solid performance against 313 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:16,800 the Cardinals here, gets a pretty good match up against a 314 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:19,760 relatively weak Houston pass defense. 315 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:24,240 I mean, Drake may just went out and you know, it was in garbage 316 00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:28,040 time, but he put up 250 yards and three touchdowns on him, had 317 00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:31,800 himself a a pretty good day. So I certain. 318 00:19:32,120 --> 00:19:34,640 It's interesting that Pot said that he was kind of like 319 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,400 average, because I do distinctly remember us saying that. 320 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:39,080 He's been good, he's been efficient. 321 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:43,040 Yeah, yeah, I'll, I'll have to go back through the walkthrough 322 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:48,840 and incite some of that stuff. But anyway, he he certainly 323 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,360 certainly showed that he's he's definitely more along the lines 324 00:19:52,360 --> 00:19:54,320 of good than average after this last week. 325 00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:58,240 I think part of that was just the small sample of only having 326 00:19:58,240 --> 00:19:59,920 a couple games to go off of there, right. 327 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:06,160 But I think here, the way that we get this game to get pushed 328 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:07,680 is probably through an explosive. 329 00:20:08,360 --> 00:20:12,080 Now, I don't know that the Texans, really. 330 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:17,200 Are the one that could provide the explosive because they're 331 00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:20,160 missing Nico Collins, who is like their big explosive play 332 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:25,240 manufacturer, right? I mean, maybe you get another 333 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:27,240 one of these breakaway runs by Joe Mixon. 334 00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:28,680 I'm certainly not going to count on that. 335 00:20:29,120 --> 00:20:33,600 But I think the Packers are actually my favorite spot to 336 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:38,840 kind of get this game going in the fun direction by generating 337 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:42,080 an explosive and that comes from Love's deep passing. 338 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:46,040 It also comes from them having Christian Watson back, which I 339 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:49,080 think is is pretty interesting and adds another element to this 340 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,320 pass game. So I think if you're playing 341 00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:58,000 this game to be a shootout, you you probably want to do it 342 00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:02,960 through with with a Packer's weapon that's you're saying is 343 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,560 going to be delivering the explosive play to to kick this 344 00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:09,320 game off. Yeah. 345 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:11,600 That that, that makes sense. That that makes sense. 346 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:18,320 I do so then I maybe this there's time for this later. 347 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:22,640 But then you think like tank Del kind of last year was that 348 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:27,520 explosive play Deliverer is that is that just not on the cards? 349 00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:31,000 No, no, I definitely it's it's for sure in the range of 350 00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:36,720 outcomes and and he did. Do you have you have Tank Del's 351 00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:42,160 aid on for this last week candy? And give me one second. 352 00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:45,320 OK. I want to say from what I 353 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:51,440 remember, I want to say that it was a little bit higher, but 354 00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:56,000 I'll see if I can pull them up here. 355 00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:10,360 So Tank del Ada it was 8.1. Yeah, it looks like it was 356 00:22:10,360 --> 00:22:13,520 actually the lowest or second lowest that it's been on the 357 00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:19,960 season 8.1 this last week, week 1, its highest A dot of 16.6. 358 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:24,160 So I mean, I don't want to I don't want to zoom in too much 359 00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,960 on the chart here and say oh, tank Del won't won't get any 360 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:32,360 more deep targets. But yeah, definitely, definitely 361 00:22:32,360 --> 00:22:37,640 interesting to watch here. I mean, he's it's certainly in 362 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:39,640 his bag to deliver an explosive play. 363 00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,960 So yeah, probably being a little too restrictive, say it has to 364 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:44,720 come from the Packers. I just think they're probably a 365 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:48,160 better bet for it than it coming from from the Texans. 366 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:54,920 But right, the next quarterback that I wanted to point out here. 367 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:58,960 Now this one is, you know, we didn't get any new information 368 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,920 about this player because he was on a bye, but I do. 369 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:05,320 I'm pretty interested in the spot. 370 00:23:06,120 --> 00:23:09,400 So we get Sam Darnold, who is in a pretty favorable part of the 371 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,080 chart. He's in that top right quadrant 372 00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:13,840 that we like to have our quarterbacks be in. 373 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:18,440 He's coming off by, he's got, you know, a healthy Justin 374 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:23,120 Jefferson, a healthy Jordan Addison, TJ Hawkinson, not going 375 00:23:23,120 --> 00:23:25,720 to be active this game, but starting to work his way back. 376 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:30,600 You've got potentially a slightly banged up Aaron Jones. 377 00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:35,280 He practiced on Monday, reportedly, but you know, they 378 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,840 they just traded for Cam Akers. So for reading the tea leaves, 379 00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:44,920 like maybe he's not 100%. So I wonder here with the Lions 380 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:49,200 no longer having Aidan Hutchinson to provide that 381 00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:52,880 really strong pass rush. I mean, he was, he was doing so 382 00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:56,920 much work for them in that. I I was looking if you look up 383 00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:00,720 the pass rush grades for the various AD Detroit Lions 384 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:06,560 defensive lineman and he was like he, he is a crushing loss 385 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,000 for them. So they have two good defensive 386 00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:13,800 tackles, but then outside of agent Aiden Hutchinson, it's 387 00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:15,880 really weak. They actually have kind of like 388 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:20,720 a rotation on the other side at defensive end and like those 389 00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:22,680 guys are, we're not playing particularly well. 390 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:28,240 So already happened to like get the other side of the the 391 00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,840 defensive end by kind of volume switching up different players 392 00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:33,080 and now happen to do that with both. 393 00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:38,280 Like I, I, I do have like, it's defensive, like we're, I guess 394 00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:42,000 we're not experts, but that has the feeling of something where 395 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:45,040 that could be a pretty dramatic drop off for the Lions. 396 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,960 Yeah, I, I that was, that was why I was so interested in this, 397 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,640 because if you get, you know, increased time to throw here and 398 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:57,080 the Vikings are able to attack more downfield, I mean, that's 399 00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,840 that's pretty good for Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson. 400 00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:04,280 Both of those guys are very, very proficient, right? 401 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,640 Right. So I, I guess I, I was trying to 402 00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:10,040 like butcher us your point where it's like, it's obviously 403 00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:13,600 Hutchinson is a superstar, but they also have this problem 404 00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:17,000 where they actually pretty light on depth too. 405 00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:19,080 Like they didn't have the depth to fill in there. 406 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:22,720 Right. And so do you think that's a 407 00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:27,880 bigger blow to the Lions in run defense or in in pass rushing, 408 00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:30,640 losing Hutchinson? Probably pass rush. 409 00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:34,840 I like their, their defensive tackles are still good and, and 410 00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:38,280 I mean you still have outside runs, it's like and stuff like 411 00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:40,320 that. So they could be vulnerable on 412 00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:43,520 that. But I I do think having an 413 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:47,120 defensive tackle stair does help a lot on the on the run stuff. 414 00:25:48,360 --> 00:25:51,760 So of the of the game environments that we went 415 00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:56,480 through here and I I guess we we weren't so fair to Jared Goff. 416 00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:58,960 We didn't really touch on him. He's in a pretty great spot on 417 00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:00,960 the chart. He they absolutely just 418 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:05,360 eviscerated the Cowboys. So he got got some nice, you 419 00:26:05,360 --> 00:26:09,080 know, stat padding in there. But the Vikings defense is 420 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,200 pretty formidable. They blitz an awful lot. 421 00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:16,040 I just wonder, you know, how much of A ceiling Goff really 422 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,840 has in this game. But for these three games that 423 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:23,360 we we kind of highlighted here, the 49ers, Chiefs or the Texans 424 00:26:23,360 --> 00:26:27,800 and Packers or Lions and Vikings, which of these 425 00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:30,120 three-game environments do you like the best? 426 00:26:30,120 --> 00:26:33,920 And is there AI think it's Lions, Vikings and and so I 427 00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:36,920 would assume that you prefer Darnold then out of out of. 428 00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:41,400 Darnold yeah, in in a vacuum and all that kind of stuff, for 429 00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:43,640 sure. Darnold I do. 430 00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:47,600 I do wonder though, if like the lines might be like the 431 00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:52,360 exception to the defense, the offenses that could get stifled 432 00:26:52,360 --> 00:26:58,400 by the Vikings D where I don't really know how like like for 433 00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:02,120 just for example, like what the pick six that we saw in London 434 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:05,640 where the Vikings basically they knew what play was coming 435 00:27:06,120 --> 00:27:10,000 because the The Jets had sort of tipped, not that they tipped it, 436 00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:13,520 but they were so predictable and calling it where you have like 437 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,040 so many. Well, I guess what I'm saying is 438 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:19,520 you have so many potent offensive weapons on the lines 439 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:23,760 and then like a very strong offensive play caller. 440 00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:27,640 So like that could be a combination where even though 441 00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:32,040 the Vikings defense is good, if they're pushing the lines on, so 442 00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:36,200 the lines are happening to throw a ton, you, you could see like 443 00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:41,240 you could see a lion's offense like and push back the tide, I 444 00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:45,240 think against the Vikings. Yeah, I mean, the the Cowboys 445 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,280 defense is a total cupcake defense, but the Lions just 446 00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:51,000 dropped a 40 burger on them, you know, and they're they're. 447 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:53,960 Using their lineman as as as receivers. 448 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,120 Yeah, cooking, cooking Cowboys defenders with offensive 449 00:27:57,120 --> 00:28:00,080 lineman. So I, I, I could see this game 450 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,280 shooting out. It's a really interesting one 451 00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:04,960 for me. I, I definitely the thing that I 452 00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:09,280 like about the Lions is they have ways to punish that Vikings 453 00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,920 blitz heavy approach. Like if you OK, you you wanna 454 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:14,960 blitz us? All right, I guess we're doing 455 00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:19,920 Jamo slams. Yeah, it's like, oh, you good. 456 00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:22,600 Good luck catching this guy. Yeah, All right. 457 00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:24,760 It's a, it's a Jamo shallow crosser. 458 00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:27,560 Let's see if we can get him the ball right behind the blitzing 459 00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:29,360 linebacker. Oh, we did all right. 460 00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:33,280 Oh, you're going to try and like, yeah, you're going to try. 461 00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,200 And what you call it, jam up. I'm in Ross St. 462 00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:38,520 Brown. Like good luck. 463 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:42,240 Yeah, probably going to be open. So it shapes up to be a pretty 464 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:46,920 fun one in my opinion. I I'm glad that I was kind of I 465 00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:49,600 was going back and forth between the Texas and Packers one. 466 00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:53,320 But getting your insight, I think I agree with you that I I 467 00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:55,600 do like the Vikings lions the best here. 468 00:28:56,520 --> 00:29:00,760 You also get it in a Dome. Oh, oh, that's always nice, 469 00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:04,600 right? Yes, OK. 470 00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:08,720 The last note I had for the quarterback chart before we move 471 00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:13,360 on to running backs, I wanted to get your favorite from the 472 00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:15,680 bottom right quadrant of the chart. 473 00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:19,120 So these are like our guys that are potentially prime for 474 00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:20,480 aggression. They're getting a lot of 475 00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:22,800 expected fantasy points to the volumes there. 476 00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:24,880 The efficiency just hasn't been there. 477 00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:29,360 So who who do you prefer for a get right spot this week? 478 00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:32,440 And so there's a couple guys that I think are interesting. 479 00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:34,600 I'll just list them off and then you let me know who your 480 00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:38,640 favorite is. So we've got Andy Dalton versus 481 00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:40,960 a really weak Washington defense. 482 00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:46,440 We've got Geno Smith versus Atlanta coming off of a 52 pass 483 00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:50,680 attempt game for Gino, and then you've got Matt Stafford off the 484 00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:55,120 by against an absolutely putrid Raiders defense potentially 485 00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,640 getting Cooper cut back. So which of those are your 486 00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:01,520 favorite? Yeah, those are all like it's 487 00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:06,320 honestly those are all high volume pass contacts where like 488 00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:10,960 the have been high volume against bad defenses. 489 00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:18,160 So if I'm thinking about this and the right way, I think that 490 00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:22,200 if things are going right for the offense, for example, the 491 00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:25,560 Panthers, I think I could see them actually kind of running 492 00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:30,400 the ball quite a bit. And I think if things are going 493 00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:35,040 right for the Rams, also could see that being a run heavy game. 494 00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:39,960 And the Seahawks, the Seahawks are the one where I think like 495 00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:42,600 even if things go right, they're still going to pass a good 496 00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,080 amount. Like they've got the really hot 497 00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:47,960 they well, it's not really high. They've got the +6 pass rate 498 00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:51,400 over expected. So like that's what feels right. 499 00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:57,120 And on the other hand, some, some, I'd made a couple of notes 500 00:30:57,120 --> 00:31:04,440 about Stafford where his, the big issue with his efficiency is 501 00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:09,560 kind of like aggregate composite efficiency has been under going 502 00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:13,800 way under on touchdowns. So having somebody like cut back 503 00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:21,200 could be a big deal for him, kind of like having some, some 504 00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:23,320 positive regression on the touchdowns. 505 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:28,360 And, and, and then I guess the, the, the issue I have with 506 00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:30,320 Dalton is we kind of know who he is. 507 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:37,160 Like I think he's like a competent backup, but he's not 508 00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:40,560 somebody who I'm ever going to like just expect to be on the 509 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:43,080 higher end, on the higher end of efficiency in the league. 510 00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,240 Not that he can't, but I just wouldn't expect it. 511 00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:52,600 Yeah, that's, that's fair. Non, certainly non derogatory. 512 00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:54,920 That's fair. Yeah, I think, I think the 513 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:58,400 Panthers, the the key to the Panthers is just play it through 514 00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:00,400 their hyper consolidated weapons. 515 00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:02,280 It's not. It's not attacking on Dalton, 516 00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:05,520 just playing it through Chuba and Deonte and calling it a day 517 00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:09,840 and knowing you're getting the vast majority of the fantasy 518 00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:12,360 points from that offense just through those two players. 519 00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:16,400 Yeah, Chuba could be like, because he's he's pretty much a 520 00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:17,880 bell cow now. Yeah. 521 00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:21,280 So like that's a pretty strong, not not to give anything too 522 00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:23,120 much away, but that's a pretty strong play. 523 00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:29,880 Yeah, the I mean, if you want to get into to narrative as well, I 524 00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:33,560 mean, you've got a guy like Chuba who coming out of college, 525 00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:37,280 you know, I, I think we all like Chuba as a prospect that he kind 526 00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:39,880 of had started his career with a bit of a whimper. 527 00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:44,640 And then now he's, you know, he's seeing this young buck in 528 00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:49,440 Jonathan Brooks, you know, just becoming activated like here to 529 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:52,720 potentially take his job. Like this might be the, you 530 00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:56,600 know, the Chuba Hubbard I got AI got to make a case to retain my 531 00:32:56,600 --> 00:33:00,360 job type game. So maybe might be reading a 532 00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:02,760 little too much into it. I mean, these guys are all 533 00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:04,840 always going to be hyper competitive, trying their 534 00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:07,080 hardest, but. You know, maybe a little 535 00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:10,280 speaking, Speaking of Chuba, I think that's a pretty, pretty 536 00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:13,040 good transition to the to the running back chart. 537 00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:15,440 Excellent transition that was flawless. 538 00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:19,720 Better than honor interrupting you pretty falls. 539 00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:23,280 And. So that I I thought this was 540 00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:27,360 interesting. And so Chuba Hubbard, he has 5.1 541 00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:29,320 make sure, let me get make sure I'm getting this right. 542 00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:36,000 He Chuba has 5.8 yards per carry this season with like pretty 543 00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:37,800 strong usage. So it's not like he's just 544 00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:44,680 getting draw plays on turn down or like some some plays that 545 00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:48,880 would expected high yardage, like he's playing really, really 546 00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:51,360 well. And a side note, Zach, you 547 00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:54,680 probably missed this, but there was a small discussion on 548 00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:59,880 Twitter kind of burying the rush yards over expected model on 549 00:33:59,880 --> 00:34:01,840 that next Gen. stats put together. 550 00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:08,159 And some of those issues is like, so Leone kind of said it's 551 00:34:08,159 --> 00:34:13,000 less sticky years, year to year for players than just straight 552 00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:18,360 unadjusted yards per attempt. And and then the other piece of 553 00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:22,520 it is, is that it actually incorporates how fast the player 554 00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:26,000 is into their expected when they get the ball. 555 00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:30,159 If you're a fast player, you're going to have a higher expected 556 00:34:30,159 --> 00:34:35,560 rushyard than a slow player. So the rushyard over expected is 557 00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:41,960 probably it's not as good for kind of like determining this is 558 00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:43,639 the next chance that it's probably not as good for 559 00:34:43,639 --> 00:34:46,199 determining player quality as we might have thought. 560 00:34:48,679 --> 00:34:51,840 Yeah, that's that's some good insight and yeah, not being on 561 00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,120 Twitter, I did miss that conversation. 562 00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:58,600 The incorporating player speed into into it seems a little 563 00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:01,320 silly. I I think it probably would be a 564 00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,560 lot more useful if they just use like a replacement level speed 565 00:35:04,720 --> 00:35:07,760 for it. Then then you could hear what 566 00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:09,760 the player was doing above expectation. 567 00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,920 But yeah, that's, that's just my opinion. 568 00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:17,160 But yeah, I mean, Chuba's role, like if you look in here, it's 569 00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:19,760 it's pretty darn good. It's right there between Bruce 570 00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:24,160 Hall and Saquon Barkley. See a absolute bell cow role. 571 00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,440 He's getting tons of work in the passing game too. 572 00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:33,200 Like he's game script proof. I mean, you just for for weekly 573 00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:37,200 formats of fantasy, you just keep writing Chuba until the 574 00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:40,480 wheels fall off until Jonathan Brooks comes in and, you know, 575 00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:41,960 turns it into a timeshare. But. 576 00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:47,440 And the thing I think about this, though, is like Brooks is 577 00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:50,600 going to have to take work off of Chuba. 578 00:35:50,720 --> 00:35:55,800 It's not, it's not just going to be handed to him like he's going 579 00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:59,720 to have to play better, decidedly better than Chuba to 580 00:35:59,720 --> 00:36:03,960 turn it into a real time share. Like Chuba is playing really 581 00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:05,680 well. If Chuba keeps playing like 582 00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:10,120 this, they're going to have a tough time like giving him and, 583 00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:13,640 and, and that's disappointing to me too, but I, I think it's 584 00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:16,680 something to we're recognizing like he's playing so well, it's 585 00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:18,360 going to be tough to to usurp him. 586 00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:21,960 Yeah, definitely. I mean, I think there's a big 587 00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:24,840 part of it where the team did spend so much draft capital on 588 00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,640 Jonathan Brooks. I'm like, I, I think it's just 589 00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:30,560 one of those like, you know, they just bought the Ferrari, 590 00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:33,560 like they want to take it for a spin type situation. 591 00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:36,480 So I, I don't think he's going to have trouble getting on the 592 00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:38,720 field. I do think he's going to have 593 00:36:38,720 --> 00:36:42,120 trouble like earning more work than Chuba, I think. 594 00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:46,080 Yeah. I I don't want to like, get out 595 00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:47,680 over my ski socks. They're going to play them. 596 00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:49,760 I'm not saying they're going to play. 597 00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:55,280 Do you think he's a dog to out touch Chuba in week 17? 598 00:36:57,720 --> 00:37:02,240 No, no, I don't think he is. I think he's probably a favorite 599 00:37:02,240 --> 00:37:09,600 there, but it's gone it that favoritism like incorporates him 600 00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:12,400 playing really well as he ramps back up from it from injury. 601 00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:16,440 Like if he doesn't then then there's no way he can be right. 602 00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:25,640 Right, another guy who it just has assumed a complete workhorse 603 00:37:25,720 --> 00:37:28,640 role. Just absolute bell cow is 604 00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:31,480 Kenneth Walker in in the show. Note I put this ain't your 605 00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:35,200 mama's Kenneth Walker because he's not the the Kenneth Walker 606 00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:39,000 that you remembered from previous seasons where he wasn't 607 00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:40,440 really involved in the pass game. 608 00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:43,080 He'd get a couple, you know, he he'd get a good amount of 609 00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:47,000 carries, but not everything that's dead and buried. 610 00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:51,360 This, this is new Kenneth Walker super soldier. 611 00:37:51,720 --> 00:37:53,680 I mean, this guy is getting everything. 612 00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:56,160 He's super involved in the passing game. 613 00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:01,240 I think on our last show we talked about I, I made a comment 614 00:38:01,240 --> 00:38:04,120 about how does Kenneth Walker have so many expected receiving 615 00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:07,320 fantasy points? And you look back and and, you 616 00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:11,040 know, showed, oh, we had all these targets in this game when 617 00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:14,480 they were coming from behind. Yeah, turns out the same, same 618 00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:16,320 thing. We got the same thing against 619 00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:18,120 the 49ers. Kenneth Walker gets a ton of 620 00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:22,400 targets again. I mean, yeah, the role for 621 00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:26,600 Kenneth Walker is elite. He's definitely. 622 00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:30,440 I mean, I don't think it's crazy to say he's a top five fantasy 623 00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:34,120 backrest of season. Yeah, yeah, for sure. 624 00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:37,640 Like he he learned, this is kind of Walker who learned how to 625 00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:41,160 goal line Curry and he's actually positive efficiency on 626 00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:44,320 touchdowns. So like he's getting the goal 627 00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:49,160 line role, he's converting it to touchdowns and he's catching 628 00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:51,480 targets. Like he's like you said, he's 629 00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:56,320 heavily involved in down game script and when they score 630 00:38:56,320 --> 00:38:59,040 points, he's heavily involved in getting those points. 631 00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:05,160 Like he he might. He might be the best shot at a 632 00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:09,360 legendary season this year. I, I was just thinking that when 633 00:39:09,360 --> 00:39:13,040 we get to the efficiency charts, I do want to do a legendary 634 00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:16,040 season check in with you again, because I think that's fun to, 635 00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:20,560 to do periodically. But before we get there, there 636 00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:25,440 are a couple other running backs on this chart whose outlooks are 637 00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:28,520 decidedly less rosy than Kenneth Walker's. 638 00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:33,520 And both of these guys, I would say, previously had bell cow 639 00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:37,520 rolls and now both of those are looking like they're in jeopardy 640 00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:40,560 and that's Rashaad White and Devin Singletary. 641 00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:46,320 So for White, we see his role in jeopardy due to, I mean, both of 642 00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:49,000 them are due to injury. You know that they open up the 643 00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:53,800 door to these younger, I mean in White, do you? 644 00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:58,360 Remember I I remember when that the reason that Rashad White 645 00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:02,680 wasn't getting a lot of rushing yards was because the online was 646 00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:05,840 bad. Yeah, I, I also. 647 00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:12,120 I don't think the online is bad. Yeah, I mean, maybe the 648 00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:15,520 Rashard's overexpected model was correct when it comes to Rashad 649 00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:20,080 White. So yeah, I mean. 650 00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:26,040 But the, the, if you look at ESPN, Tampa Bay actually has one 651 00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:29,880 of the best run blocking online. They're mid table by PFF. 652 00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:35,080 So I, I know just before he went out, Rashad White had like the 653 00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:43,000 big long run, but I, I don't, I, I think, I think he's, he's 654 00:40:43,200 --> 00:40:46,600 crushed a little bit. Even if he does maintain like a 655 00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:52,160 role, like it's whatever he has right now is very tenuous, very 656 00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:54,800 tenuous. He cannot continue to play 657 00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:59,520 mediocre and hold on to what he has like even diminished what he 658 00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:01,560 has. He I think he's in trouble. 659 00:41:02,720 --> 00:41:06,400 Yeah, the, the problem for Rashad White is that his role, 660 00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:11,680 the, the amount of role that he retains is inversely 661 00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:15,960 proportional to how intelligent the Bucs coaching staff is. 662 00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:18,880 So the worse they are, the better role Rashad White will 663 00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:21,760 have. And so I, I think it really 664 00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:25,160 comes down to like how, how big of donkeys do you think are 665 00:41:25,360 --> 00:41:28,720 making the decisions for, you know, what running backs are 666 00:41:28,720 --> 00:41:35,000 getting touches. So so just just to to kind of 667 00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:41,000 note here, in the last game with white out, it was actually 668 00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:43,760 bookie Irving who was the passing down back. 669 00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:46,280 They actually trusted Brooke Irving. 670 00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:48,240 Now, let me let me look up this up. 671 00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:53,240 So I get it exactly right. But they actually trusted him to 672 00:41:53,240 --> 00:41:59,320 be the the passing down back. So he had he had five pass pass 673 00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:04,400 blocking snaps in the last game. He also, I think he had he had 674 00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:11,960 27 routes. So to me, like maybe maybe he is 675 00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:17,040 slightly better as a pass blocker to, to Bucky, but him 676 00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:19,960 having this kind of Moat as being the pass blocker, as being 677 00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:24,880 the guy who can catch targets that that feels really tough. 678 00:42:25,080 --> 00:42:29,720 It feels really tough. I, I, I guess it, it is, it's 679 00:42:30,040 --> 00:42:32,760 for, for Bucky. I guess one note for Bucky, it 680 00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:37,040 is kind of a little bit of concern that even when you got 681 00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:41,240 his contingent upside role, it was still pretty heavily capped 682 00:42:41,680 --> 00:42:45,200 by them splitting the carries. They split the carries 5050 with 683 00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:53,520 Sean Tucker and but at the same time like the Rashad White stuff 684 00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:57,040 feels really bad. Yeah, Tucker did get a lot fewer 685 00:42:57,040 --> 00:43:02,600 snaps than than Bucky did, and a lot of those Tucker carries did 686 00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:06,080 come. Now the this is a crazy game, 687 00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:12,120 but a lot of the Tucker carries came later in the game after Now 688 00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:14,840 I don't want to say it was out of hand just because this game 689 00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:18,320 was so sweet that like, I don't think it ever was really out of 690 00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:21,800 hand until it was like the Bucks had, you know, a three score 691 00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:26,520 lead on it. But man, it so a lot of the Sean 692 00:43:26,520 --> 00:43:29,440 Tucker stuff came later, but it that's not to say it was all 693 00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:32,560 garbage time. So it certainly wasn't, but it 694 00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:35,720 was more that when Tucker was on the field, he was getting 695 00:43:35,720 --> 00:43:37,800 touches at a. Highway it was to give him a 696 00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:40,240 carry. Yeah, just to give him a carry. 697 00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:43,080 Nick had a good question in the chat. 698 00:43:43,240 --> 00:43:45,200 Do you guys think Sean Tucker AD? 699 00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:50,240 I absolutely think he's an AD. I had so much Sean Tucker in the 700 00:43:50,240 --> 00:43:54,680 big board last year. He was, he was AI really, really 701 00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:56,800 loved him as a prospect. Super fun guy. 702 00:43:57,840 --> 00:44:02,320 His highlights are really fun. So where, where that's most 703 00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:07,800 relevant probably is in FFPC kind of redraft leagues. 704 00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:13,640 And I think he will be he will be a target for most people in, 705 00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:17,120 in waivers. I, I know Steph is kind of like 706 00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:19,440 the expert on, on, on waiver sizing. 707 00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:29,480 My thoughts would be that he's more like a stash where once 708 00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:33,280 White comes back and he it sounds like he will come back 709 00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:35,640 soon. Once White comes back, he, he 710 00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:39,080 probably won't play that much. But then, you know, once, once 711 00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:41,680 you get that injury, you kind of know what you get there. 712 00:44:41,680 --> 00:44:44,200 You get a what feels like a very, what seems like a very 713 00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:50,040 efficient runner who will get lots of carries in, in, in high, 714 00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:53,160 yeah, play count games. So to me that feels like 715 00:44:53,160 --> 00:44:56,920 encouragement not to kind of go overboard like he's not like a 716 00:44:57,280 --> 00:45:00,440 he's not like some super priority fab where you have to 717 00:45:00,440 --> 00:45:04,240 like load up all your fab on him. 718 00:45:04,240 --> 00:45:09,680 But he is somebody who's a stash that where you have that upside 719 00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:12,160 of like that. They can say like see a white 720 00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:16,240 and or, or white gets injured or blah, blah, blah. 721 00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:21,200 But you you probably, unless you're really, really stuck, you 722 00:45:21,200 --> 00:45:24,800 can't really start Tucker while there while White is healthy. 723 00:45:25,280 --> 00:45:28,200 I agree 100% with you. He's someone that you really 724 00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:31,760 want to have on your bench for when the contingent upside comes 725 00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:34,200 in. And it's not, it doesn't 726 00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:37,760 necessarily require an injury. It could just be that the staff 727 00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:41,800 realizes, you know, they do a three three-way time split and 728 00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:45,560 then slowly realize like, OK, we just we can't justify giving 729 00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:47,920 Rashad white carries. He's now just a really good 730 00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:50,800 depth piece for us. I just don't think that I think 731 00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:52,400 that will take a little while to happen. 732 00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:55,320 And so you're just going to you're going to sit with Sean 733 00:45:55,320 --> 00:45:57,880 Tucker for a while, but he's someone that I'm happy to have 734 00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:00,840 on my bench. I want to want to ask you a 735 00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:03,320 quick question. If you were going to be adding 736 00:46:03,320 --> 00:46:07,600 or dropping someone, Sean Tucker or Emmanuel Wilson, who would 737 00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:09,840 you rather have on your bench in an FFPC league? 738 00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:13,080 I think you'd rather have Tucker. 739 00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:14,520 Really. OK. 740 00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:19,240 Well, yeah, we've kind of we've almost seen the Emmanuel Wilson 741 00:46:19,240 --> 00:46:23,520 like upside. I guess maybe if you get an 742 00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:28,520 injury, if you get an injury to, to Josh Jacobs, right, you're, 743 00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:31,920 you're, you're definitely you're much cleaner on Emmanuel Wilson. 744 00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:37,920 So you also, you just think the probability of Tucker usurping 745 00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:41,760 White without an injury is high enough that 'cause I think the 746 00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:46,560 ceiling for Wilson is higher in the, in the case of an injury 747 00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:49,320 cause then I think it's probably just him. 748 00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:51,920 And then maybe you get a little Marshawn Lloyd mixed in if he's 749 00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:54,200 back. But I, I think you just have a 750 00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:58,000 problem in Tampa Bay where you now have two backs that seem 751 00:46:59,240 --> 00:47:03,040 good and you've got one that's just kind of more entrenched. 752 00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:05,120 And so it's just a little more crowded there. 753 00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:07,000 I, I don't know, I I thought it was an interesting. 754 00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:12,400 It, it is interesting and I, I could be wrong here, but some of 755 00:47:12,400 --> 00:47:15,800 what I was kind of baking in there on, on Wilson is that even 756 00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:18,960 if you get like that and then I think about it, even if you get 757 00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:24,360 that an injury on Emmanuel Wilson, then they probably bring 758 00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:26,600 in somebody. It's probably not just Emmanuel 759 00:47:26,600 --> 00:47:28,760 Wilson. You're you're very right. 760 00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:32,640 That's this is like classic fantasy football player brain 761 00:47:32,720 --> 00:47:37,040 where you're like, Oh yeah, the backup running back will clearly 762 00:47:37,560 --> 00:47:40,040 assume the entire role or most of it. 763 00:47:40,120 --> 00:47:43,560 It's like, no, like it's, it's a learning name spot, right? 764 00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:47,080 Yeah, yeah, learning name spot is a good way to put it. 765 00:47:47,960 --> 00:47:50,840 And I mean, his role would improve. 766 00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:53,440 His role right now isn't actually bad. 767 00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:57,960 Like he's got a better stand alone, but it's kind of like he 768 00:47:57,960 --> 00:48:02,960 hasn't really like he's got an extended play without really 769 00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:07,400 making an impact, which I I think you have to factor that 770 00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:11,800 into where like if if you're get, if somebody's playing a lot 771 00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:16,680 and they're not like making an impact, then how can they be a 772 00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:19,840 difference maker for you? Like you're maybe I'm over, 773 00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:26,080 maybe I'm overreacting to Sean Tucker being like very good, but 774 00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:30,240 and are are like playing scoring lots of points last week. 775 00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:34,120 But I also do kind of want to react to that like I I do. 776 00:48:34,120 --> 00:48:36,040 No, I, I think you're, I think you're right. 777 00:48:36,040 --> 00:48:40,560 We have it's a prospect we were excited for who had, you know, 778 00:48:40,680 --> 00:48:44,720 an understandable reason why he he hasn't produced yet or gotten 779 00:48:44,720 --> 00:48:47,760 an opportunity. His very first opportunity. 780 00:48:48,320 --> 00:48:52,240 Guy looks pretty good. So I think this it's the kind of 781 00:48:52,240 --> 00:48:54,680 thing where you need to you need to be aggressive to get out 782 00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:57,040 ahead of it if you're if you want to be the one to capture 783 00:48:57,040 --> 00:48:59,960 that upside. So definitely a good stash. 784 00:49:00,600 --> 00:49:04,800 Let's move on to the next guy whose previous bell count role 785 00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:07,800 is now in jeopardy in Devon Singletary. 786 00:49:08,160 --> 00:49:12,160 I mean, the Tyrone Tracy genie does not go back in the bottle 787 00:49:12,160 --> 00:49:14,840 after the games that we've seen from him. 788 00:49:16,120 --> 00:49:19,680 Man, he he looks good. I really like Tyrone Tracy. 789 00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:23,800 Yeah, yeah, he's played pretty phenomenal. 790 00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:29,840 And I think, I think, I don't think you go back to to Bellco 791 00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:32,400 Singletary. I I don't think we get that 792 00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:36,640 again. But Singletary is also the type 793 00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:40,240 of back who will like, stubbornly hold on to a roll 794 00:49:40,760 --> 00:49:42,520 because he does all the little things right. 795 00:49:43,240 --> 00:49:45,000 Yeah. Singletary is not going to lose 796 00:49:45,000 --> 00:49:46,400 a job. He's just not. 797 00:49:46,920 --> 00:49:50,920 I believe that it was you who likened Devin Singletary to 798 00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:54,480 creeping Ivy, where he will just slowly strangle out the other 799 00:49:54,480 --> 00:49:57,440 backs in the backfield. I think Tracy is probably too 800 00:49:57,440 --> 00:50:02,160 good to get strangled out, but I think Singletary is just too 801 00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:05,760 consistent as a real life NFL player. 802 00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:08,200 Devin Singletary is really freaking good. 803 00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:13,560 Like, he's not most exciting guy, but Devon Singletary is 804 00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:15,480 that. Nobody gets fired for playing 805 00:50:15,480 --> 00:50:18,880 Devon Singletary. No, he's he's the reliable 806 00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:21,320 vehicle. Devon Singletary has got 300,000 807 00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:23,360 miles on him and he's never broken down. 808 00:50:23,440 --> 00:50:26,600 You know that he's going to get you from point A to point B. 809 00:50:27,560 --> 00:50:30,840 It is. I mean, it is kind of like 810 00:50:30,880 --> 00:50:36,280 indicative though that you saw after, after it being a much 811 00:50:36,280 --> 00:50:40,280 closer split in Week 5 for Tracy and Eric Gray. 812 00:50:41,120 --> 00:50:46,880 It, it, it became a Tyrone Tracy is the guy split and then with 813 00:50:46,880 --> 00:50:49,600 that role he played just as well, if not better. 814 00:50:50,680 --> 00:50:56,720 So you do you do have that like piece where Tracy is playing 815 00:50:56,720 --> 00:51:00,960 really, really well in a way that the coaching staff is very 816 00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:07,280 clearly recognizing. And and so that feels like a new 817 00:51:07,280 --> 00:51:11,640 development and the coaching staff will have to react to it 818 00:51:12,160 --> 00:51:14,800 where it will. It will be much closer to 5050 819 00:51:14,800 --> 00:51:18,440 than before. It probably who who knows how 820 00:51:18,440 --> 00:51:22,360 close to 5050 it is, but much closer than it was before. 821 00:51:23,160 --> 00:51:28,720 Yeah, moving on to the next guy, we we talked about this player a 822 00:51:28,720 --> 00:51:33,480 little bit already and in the context of the match up. 823 00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:37,760 But Aaron Jones coming off the bye week, you know, with the 824 00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:40,960 potential injury spotted in practice on Monday. 825 00:51:41,320 --> 00:51:43,600 I definitely want to watch the situation closely. 826 00:51:43,600 --> 00:51:49,040 But how do you feel about him against this Lion's defense 827 00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:56,640 without Hutchinson? So I mean, like I said, I, I, I 828 00:51:56,640 --> 00:52:00,760 think, I think the, the past defense is more impacted than 829 00:52:00,760 --> 00:52:05,680 the run defense. And I do think that it's a spot 830 00:52:05,680 --> 00:52:10,240 where the, the Vikings will look to pass because like I, I, they 831 00:52:10,240 --> 00:52:12,600 are actually kind of like a pass heavy team as well. 832 00:52:13,560 --> 00:52:20,120 And if you get healthy, Aaron Jones, like that's always going 833 00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:21,880 to be interesting. He's a really explosive player. 834 00:52:21,880 --> 00:52:24,160 Like he doesn't have to get there on the ground. 835 00:52:24,160 --> 00:52:28,040 He could also catch a bunch of passes and, and, and has one 836 00:52:28,120 --> 00:52:30,880 that, and if you're trying to win a GPP, like it's that kind 837 00:52:30,880 --> 00:52:34,120 of play that you need. And I, I think it's, I think 838 00:52:34,120 --> 00:52:38,640 it's interesting like, but definitely really concerned by, 839 00:52:39,480 --> 00:52:40,960 by him coming back off the injury. 840 00:52:42,920 --> 00:52:49,520 OK, the next guy I wanted to touch on here, relatively new 841 00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:52,760 addition to the chart 'cause he dealt with an injury through 842 00:52:52,760 --> 00:52:58,000 much of the early season here, that's Raheem Mostert and his 843 00:52:58,200 --> 00:53:01,320 the the split. Now things are so weird with the 844 00:53:01,320 --> 00:53:04,120 Dolphins without them having Tua and then you get the H in 845 00:53:04,120 --> 00:53:07,280 concussion. So, you know, definitely a 846 00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:09,120 little weird. They they're coming off the by 847 00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:12,880 here. So a chance two weeks removed 848 00:53:12,880 --> 00:53:15,200 now this will be his second week, you know, from the 849 00:53:15,200 --> 00:53:18,560 concussion. He should be fine to play, but 850 00:53:18,560 --> 00:53:21,600 what do you think of either of these Dolphins running backs 851 00:53:21,600 --> 00:53:22,960 here? They get a pretty good match up 852 00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:25,200 against the Colts. Do you have any interest in 853 00:53:25,200 --> 00:53:28,200 either of them and do you have a a lead one way or the other? 854 00:53:29,680 --> 00:53:36,560 So with a Chon back, it has to be a Chon over most third, like 855 00:53:37,240 --> 00:53:40,440 I I think it just has to be like he he he's the lead for them 856 00:53:40,440 --> 00:53:49,360 now. And and it's honestly he he he 857 00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:52,440 had such command of that backfield that and and monster 858 00:53:52,440 --> 00:53:57,480 had seemed like like a player so clearly kind of aged out that it 859 00:53:57,480 --> 00:54:01,080 it it's hard for me to to do the monster thing. 860 00:54:01,920 --> 00:54:06,920 Do you feel differently? I I mean, I know that it was off 861 00:54:06,920 --> 00:54:10,560 the the injury, but Monster got 20 touches in their last game 862 00:54:11,120 --> 00:54:14,400 and and it's not like a Chan has been particularly efficient this 863 00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:17,640 season. I think I agree with you that he 864 00:54:17,640 --> 00:54:21,120 is a Chan is the one now and that's what they want. 865 00:54:22,080 --> 00:54:25,880 But I also think during the buy they might have, you know, had a 866 00:54:25,960 --> 00:54:28,480 had a little bit of a come to Jesus moment on it and said 867 00:54:28,960 --> 00:54:33,360 maybe we shouldn't be giving a Chan, you know, 20 plus touches 868 00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:36,280 a game. Maybe we go back to the thing 869 00:54:36,920 --> 00:54:39,040 that keeps him fresh and explosive. 870 00:54:39,360 --> 00:54:42,880 Like Riddle me this. Would you rather give a chance 871 00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:47,520 20 touches a game and then he's not efficient And so you, you 872 00:54:47,520 --> 00:54:50,200 know, you're just not getting these big explosive plays. 873 00:54:50,520 --> 00:54:54,200 Or do you want to give him 11:50 touches a game And the reason 874 00:54:54,200 --> 00:54:57,160 that he's getting fewer touches is because the drives end 875 00:54:57,360 --> 00:55:00,880 because he's getting a 6080 yard touchdown run, you know? 876 00:55:00,880 --> 00:55:02,760 So right, right, that makes sense. 877 00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:07,640 I and I honestly, especially coming off a bye, it does look 878 00:55:07,640 --> 00:55:10,600 like Jalen Wright played much better than Mostard. 879 00:55:11,760 --> 00:55:16,760 And just by the numbers it looks like he's played better. 880 00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:22,240 Like if, if if you're running have like a bye week shake up, 881 00:55:22,800 --> 00:55:25,440 like I'd almost look for it. I'd almost wonder if it's Jalen 882 00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:29,920 Wright over Mostard. OK, well now, now you've got me 883 00:55:30,200 --> 00:55:32,360 back to the champ. Previously I was, I was a little 884 00:55:32,360 --> 00:55:36,320 interested in Moser here just to, you know, see if he assumes 885 00:55:36,320 --> 00:55:38,160 the world that they had him in last year. 886 00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:42,920 I, I, I certainly think that wanes as the season goes on 887 00:55:42,920 --> 00:55:45,640 'cause, you know, like you said, he, he's an older player. 888 00:55:45,640 --> 00:55:48,440 Like the injury really Hanford him to start the season. 889 00:55:48,440 --> 00:55:51,360 He missed a lot of time. I'm just wondering if it's like 890 00:55:51,720 --> 00:55:55,200 these are these are the freshest we'll get Raheem Moser's legs. 891 00:55:55,520 --> 00:55:57,600 And so we make the most out of them here. 892 00:55:57,960 --> 00:56:01,400 But if the smart play is probably just a Chan and you 893 00:56:01,400 --> 00:56:04,120 just go back to the guy who's shown that, you know, he he can 894 00:56:04,120 --> 00:56:07,240 be good for multiple, you know, long house calls a week. 895 00:56:07,240 --> 00:56:10,600 So. Yeah, yeah, I, I, that's how I 896 00:56:10,600 --> 00:56:13,520 feel about it. Where like I really think that 897 00:56:13,520 --> 00:56:19,840 there's A and not, not, not not a small risk that they actually 898 00:56:19,840 --> 00:56:23,720 go with, right, Just because when, when somebody starts 899 00:56:23,720 --> 00:56:27,960 hitting that Cliff, like it appears that monster is like 900 00:56:27,960 --> 00:56:29,920 that, that, that that fall off can be dramatic. 901 00:56:30,920 --> 00:56:33,480 Yeah, that's, I think that's a really good point. 902 00:56:34,360 --> 00:56:37,200 We've got a couple good questions in the chat. 903 00:56:39,160 --> 00:56:44,920 This this one Quorum, Vidal, Tucker or Bigsby rest of season? 904 00:56:46,080 --> 00:56:50,160 I mean for I guess I'll, I'll go ahead and rank him and you let 905 00:56:50,160 --> 00:56:53,040 me know if you disagree on any of them here. 906 00:56:53,440 --> 00:57:00,440 For me, it's Vidal #1, probably quorum #2, Tucker #3 and bigsby 907 00:57:00,440 --> 00:57:02,800 #4. I don't think Bigsby is a thing. 908 00:57:02,800 --> 00:57:05,640 I think Bigsby is wish casting 'cause he had a couple good 909 00:57:05,640 --> 00:57:08,720 breakaway runs. ETM is dealing with the injury, 910 00:57:08,720 --> 00:57:13,200 so Bigsby got more playing time and Bigsby is not at all 911 00:57:13,960 --> 00:57:16,360 involved in the passing game. Like they're using dearness 912 00:57:16,360 --> 00:57:21,800 Johnson over him. And I just, I don't know if I 913 00:57:21,800 --> 00:57:25,200 want to believe that the player that we saw stink out loud all 914 00:57:25,200 --> 00:57:28,560 last year all of a sudden is having a renaissance. 915 00:57:28,760 --> 00:57:32,640 I I think I want to I want to rely a little bit more on my 916 00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:35,080 priors there and not get over my skis on Bigsby. 917 00:57:35,800 --> 00:57:39,200 So, yeah, the like the the player who actually led the team 918 00:57:39,200 --> 00:57:41,640 in snaps at running back was Dearness Johnson. 919 00:57:42,400 --> 00:57:46,000 So if you were if if like you were trying to like consider 920 00:57:46,000 --> 00:57:49,400 this like, hey, Travis Etienne is injured or maybe he's not as 921 00:57:49,400 --> 00:57:51,320 good anymore, they're phasing him out. 922 00:57:51,840 --> 00:57:54,440 You have this ascending player in in Bigsby. 923 00:57:55,320 --> 00:57:59,560 What you don't want to see is Darius Johnson with like a yeah, 924 00:57:59,560 --> 00:58:07,000 54% snap rate like. Yeah, I mean, the other three 925 00:58:07,000 --> 00:58:11,040 just kind of feel like these are all really good bench stash 926 00:58:11,040 --> 00:58:13,040 players, right? Like all of these are really. 927 00:58:13,040 --> 00:58:15,440 I'm happy. If I'm looking at a team and I 928 00:58:15,440 --> 00:58:18,440 see that guy on the roster, I'm like, cool, that's good. 929 00:58:18,680 --> 00:58:21,400 Yeah, all. That's kind of all get there. 930 00:58:21,400 --> 00:58:23,720 They all have different flavors and can get there in different 931 00:58:23,720 --> 00:58:26,600 ways, but they're all strong. Yep. 932 00:58:27,960 --> 00:58:31,600 And then run Good Rick also had a pretty good question. 933 00:58:31,600 --> 00:58:34,040 I I want to say that one for the efficiency charts, though. 934 00:58:34,040 --> 00:58:36,720 So I, I didn't want you to think we were we're not seeing yet Run 935 00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:40,320 good Rick, but we'll get to that Dijon question on the efficiency 936 00:58:40,320 --> 00:58:45,840 charts only had one more for this starters chart here, and 937 00:58:45,840 --> 00:58:50,440 that's Javonte Williams. So, OK, Gretch had a really 938 00:58:50,440 --> 00:58:55,280 interesting point about Javonte and I think it was a stealing 939 00:58:55,280 --> 00:58:59,560 signals last week, but it's that Jovante's snap share, if you 940 00:58:59,560 --> 00:59:04,560 look at it from a percentage, you'll see it you know waver up 941 00:59:04,560 --> 00:59:07,320 and down week over week. It's not not terribly 942 00:59:07,320 --> 00:59:12,000 consistent, but if you look at it from a raw snaps perspective, 943 00:59:12,440 --> 00:59:16,200 the number of raw snaps and opportunities that Jovante gets 944 00:59:16,600 --> 00:59:19,880 are very consistent. So it's almost like Sean Payton 945 00:59:19,880 --> 00:59:23,520 has like, hey, this is about how many snaps I want to give to 946 00:59:23,560 --> 00:59:27,280 anyone guy in a week because he's trying to manage workload. 947 00:59:27,720 --> 00:59:30,520 And that that makes sense. You know, if you were, if you 948 00:59:30,520 --> 00:59:34,080 really did think that that mattered for the quality of your 949 00:59:34,080 --> 00:59:36,720 players over the course of a season, like not getting that, 950 00:59:36,720 --> 00:59:39,080 you know, just like you're looking at a pitch count for a 951 00:59:39,080 --> 00:59:42,520 pitcher, like you're not looking at percent of pitches thrown in 952 00:59:42,520 --> 00:59:45,160 a game, like you're looking at the actual pitch count, right. 953 00:59:45,520 --> 00:59:48,240 So that makes sense for the Jovante workload. 954 00:59:48,560 --> 00:59:52,640 The thing that I'm concerned about is the the production 955 00:59:52,760 --> 00:59:57,760 coming on that workload. I mean, I think it's pretty fair 956 00:59:57,760 --> 01:00:01,200 to to attribute a lot of that to just the the Broncos struggling 957 01:00:01,200 --> 01:00:02,240 lately. They've been a little bit 958 01:00:02,240 --> 01:00:04,160 better. Nyx has certainly been better, 959 01:00:04,920 --> 01:00:07,320 but it's just not translating for Jovante. 960 01:00:07,720 --> 01:00:11,040 So I'm kind of wondering with Estimate coming back and 961 01:00:11,040 --> 01:00:15,040 immediately getting Estimate got snaps in his first game off IR, 962 01:00:15,360 --> 01:00:17,840 you know, as a rookie that missed a bunch of time. 963 01:00:18,400 --> 01:00:21,880 Do you think that Thursday night here against the Saints is 964 01:00:22,480 --> 01:00:26,200 Javonte's last gasp to kind of hold off Audrey Guest to me? 965 01:00:28,640 --> 01:00:35,440 And I that, I mean, that's hard to say, isn't it, just because 966 01:00:36,440 --> 01:00:41,320 we've seen Javonte not play as well as we hoped for or expected 967 01:00:41,920 --> 01:00:50,200 and then still hold on to a role and, and then so estimate he had 968 01:00:50,200 --> 01:00:52,920 what, 22 rush attempts? Yeah, I'm not actually. 969 01:00:52,960 --> 01:00:55,320 Sure. I'm not sure how many snaps he 970 01:00:55,320 --> 01:00:56,520 had. I'm going to look that up real 971 01:00:56,520 --> 01:00:58,520 quick, but I can't imagine that it was. 972 01:00:58,760 --> 01:01:02,280 It was too many. No, I don't believe it was 973 01:01:02,320 --> 01:01:04,120 terribly substantial. I just. 974 01:01:04,160 --> 01:01:06,840 OK, he had, he had, he had two snaps. 975 01:01:07,400 --> 01:01:12,720 Yeah, 2 snaps, 2 carries so. He did have 6 snaps in that kick 976 01:01:12,720 --> 01:01:14,280 return. There you go. 977 01:01:15,640 --> 01:01:18,280 Yeah, I mean. I, I, I guess it that that makes 978 01:01:18,280 --> 01:01:23,480 it really hard to kind of call for the end of, of Jovante's 979 01:01:23,720 --> 01:01:27,200 time in Denver. I mean, I, I think Jovante just 980 01:01:27,400 --> 01:01:30,760 maybe ran a little hot with the Tyler Bidet injury too. 981 01:01:30,760 --> 01:01:33,960 Like that might have been the 1st, that was the first person 982 01:01:33,960 --> 01:01:36,800 coming at Jovante for the role and, and now we get another. 983 01:01:37,320 --> 01:01:40,040 It's just like, how many, how many can he survive? 984 01:01:42,000 --> 01:01:44,440 I don't know. I'm, I'm relatively concerned 985 01:01:44,800 --> 01:01:47,240 about Javonte. I think Thursday is is pretty 986 01:01:47,240 --> 01:01:54,040 important for him. Yeah, yeah. 987 01:01:54,240 --> 01:01:57,440 I mean, he can get right where he can play bad. 988 01:01:57,440 --> 01:02:00,120 And they're still like, yes, this is this is our guy. 989 01:02:01,880 --> 01:02:04,440 So I think, I think that's very reasonable. 990 01:02:06,920 --> 01:02:09,760 I just I, I. The part where I hesitate is 991 01:02:09,760 --> 01:02:12,320 like calling the point where it's like, yes, this is the. 992 01:02:12,360 --> 01:02:14,800 Right, right. Yeah, We don't. 993 01:02:14,800 --> 01:02:16,080 We don't. Want to, but I agree with the 994 01:02:16,080 --> 01:02:18,600 like I agree with the sentiment of like he can't play back. 995 01:02:18,600 --> 01:02:20,560 He he can't keep getting away with this. 996 01:02:21,040 --> 01:02:24,680 Yeah, OK, let's move to the backups chart. 997 01:02:24,680 --> 01:02:27,760 There's really only one guy that I wanted to touch on here other 998 01:02:27,760 --> 01:02:31,040 than Kyle use checks. Hilarious snap share. 999 01:02:31,040 --> 01:02:35,160 It's when when the 49ers deal with running back injuries, Kyle 1000 01:02:35,160 --> 01:02:39,080 use check comes a knock in. But no, the the one I really 1001 01:02:39,080 --> 01:02:43,480 wanted to point out here, we've got the Chase Brown ascension 1002 01:02:43,800 --> 01:02:47,760 continuing, I believe now again, these charts, the running back 1003 01:02:47,760 --> 01:02:51,160 charts are rolling. The usage one is rolling for 1004 01:02:51,160 --> 01:02:53,480 weeks. So we're looking at the last 1005 01:02:53,480 --> 01:02:56,920 four weeks of data so that we can pick up on emergent trends. 1006 01:02:57,840 --> 01:03:01,480 So this Chase Brown stuff, we've got four weeks of data, but here 1007 01:03:01,560 --> 01:03:06,160 over this, just this most recent week, he did finally flip Zach 1008 01:03:06,160 --> 01:03:08,000 Moss in snaps. Is that right? 1009 01:03:08,840 --> 01:03:12,600 He flipped them in snaps. Now some of that, some of that 1010 01:03:12,600 --> 01:03:16,240 is because the the Bengals actually didn't pass block that 1011 01:03:16,240 --> 01:03:19,560 much. There was only tree total pass 1012 01:03:19,560 --> 01:03:23,360 blocking snaps. And so that that's a big part of 1013 01:03:23,360 --> 01:03:28,520 it, but another part of it was that Chase Brown got more so he 1014 01:03:28,560 --> 01:03:32,200 had more rushes, 10 rush attempts for Brown versus 6 for 1015 01:03:32,200 --> 01:03:35,120 Moss. And he also had more routes, 19 1016 01:03:35,120 --> 01:03:38,480 versus 14. I do wonder if those routes 1017 01:03:38,480 --> 01:03:41,720 would look different in games with lots of pass blocking. 1018 01:03:42,160 --> 01:03:46,080 Like there is part of me that wonders if that was kind of a 1019 01:03:46,080 --> 01:03:49,160 game plan specific thing. And then if they use it back to 1020 01:03:49,160 --> 01:03:54,120 pass block more, the, the passing stuff tilts more in 1021 01:03:54,120 --> 01:04:00,400 favor of Zach Moss again. But this is definitely a very, 1022 01:04:00,480 --> 01:04:06,280 very encouraging development for for Chase Brown drafters And I 1023 01:04:06,280 --> 01:04:12,760 so I think you're still, let's see, you're still at AMA 6th. 1024 01:04:12,760 --> 01:04:18,640 So you're at a 60% snap rate for Chase Brown and then a 4644% 1025 01:04:18,640 --> 01:04:24,440 snap rate for and Zach Moss. Obviously that that doesn't add 1026 01:04:24,440 --> 01:04:30,880 up to 90 and that doesn't add to 100% and or say that adds up to 1027 01:04:30,880 --> 01:04:32,960 104%. So there must have been snaps 1028 01:04:32,960 --> 01:04:37,360 where they're about on the field, but pretty, pretty 1029 01:04:37,360 --> 01:04:40,240 encouraging. Yeah, definitely. 1030 01:04:41,560 --> 01:04:44,960 I mean, I think it's just Chase Brown was a buy. 1031 01:04:44,960 --> 01:04:50,080 He he is a buy, Yeah. That's and and the other piece 1032 01:04:50,080 --> 01:04:53,000 is like he always, he always looks so much better when he 1033 01:04:53,000 --> 01:04:55,040 gets. It's, it's really, it's super 1034 01:04:55,040 --> 01:04:57,240 stark, man, watching. I was. 1035 01:04:57,280 --> 01:04:59,000 And it shows up in the numbers too. 1036 01:04:59,480 --> 01:05:02,360 Yeah, it's it, it, it checks all the boxes, right? 1037 01:05:02,360 --> 01:05:05,600 Like it's what I'm seeing when I look at the stats, it's what I'm 1038 01:05:05,600 --> 01:05:07,640 seeing when I look at the the advanced metrics. 1039 01:05:07,760 --> 01:05:09,960 It's what I'm seeing when I watch the game. 1040 01:05:10,360 --> 01:05:14,320 So it's like when all of those things a line, it just gives you 1041 01:05:14,320 --> 01:05:17,440 more confidence in the evaluation of the player that 1042 01:05:17,440 --> 01:05:20,040 this guy is good. So definitely exciting. 1043 01:05:21,120 --> 01:05:23,440 Let's move on to the efficiency charts. 1044 01:05:30,300 --> 01:05:34,660 Any anybody you you think of as interesting here on efficiency? 1045 01:05:35,560 --> 01:05:39,400 Yeah, so the, for me, the thing that was the that stood out the 1046 01:05:39,400 --> 01:05:42,360 most on the efficiency charts was really just that we have 1047 01:05:42,360 --> 01:05:46,480 these clear tiers beginning to form and it's all it, it's so 1048 01:05:46,480 --> 01:05:49,760 nice when this happens. And I, I remember feeling this 1049 01:05:49,760 --> 01:05:52,200 way last season as well, when it's like, Oh yeah. 1050 01:05:52,200 --> 01:05:55,480 Like when we, when we finally start getting, you know, these 1051 01:05:55,480 --> 01:05:58,400 guys more settled into their roles and their workload and 1052 01:05:58,400 --> 01:06:02,240 like we, we start knowing what they are and we just see these 1053 01:06:02,240 --> 01:06:06,720 clear tiers forming. It, it, it makes it, it just 1054 01:06:06,720 --> 01:06:09,000 feels so much more orderly to me, you know. 1055 01:06:09,000 --> 01:06:14,920 And so here we, we don't really have anyone that is sitting well 1056 01:06:14,920 --> 01:06:17,080 positioned for a legendary season. 1057 01:06:17,360 --> 01:06:20,920 I mean, you've got guys like Jonathan Taylor, Kyron Williams 1058 01:06:21,200 --> 01:06:25,720 kind of on the on the threshold. Derrick Henry is trying his 1059 01:06:25,720 --> 01:06:27,800 damnedest. I mean, he's, if he has a 1060 01:06:27,800 --> 01:06:30,560 legendary season, he's going to get there purely through 1061 01:06:30,560 --> 01:06:32,400 efficiency. It's not going to be from the 1062 01:06:32,400 --> 01:06:36,960 past, from the passing game. He's not getting his requisite 4 1063 01:06:36,960 --> 01:06:40,440 targets per game to, to qualify for the legendary season 1064 01:06:40,440 --> 01:06:43,320 Screener. But damn it, he's going to put 1065 01:06:43,320 --> 01:06:45,960 up 2100 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns. 1066 01:06:46,360 --> 01:06:51,080 So, and Derrick Henry's so fun. I I wish I had drafted more of 1067 01:06:51,080 --> 01:06:53,840 him. I don't I don't hate that I 1068 01:06:53,840 --> 01:06:56,280 faded him. I think it wasn't terrible 1069 01:06:56,280 --> 01:06:57,680 process. Yeah, I don't regret it. 1070 01:06:57,720 --> 01:07:00,440 I don't regret it. I wish I was rooting for I was 1071 01:07:00,440 --> 01:07:03,840 able to root for him more financially, but I don't, I 1072 01:07:03,840 --> 01:07:06,480 don't think I don't consider it a bad decision. 1073 01:07:06,880 --> 01:07:10,720 I even though he is hurting me every week financially, I still 1074 01:07:10,720 --> 01:07:12,880 root for him. I I fucking love Derrick Henry 1075 01:07:12,880 --> 01:07:14,680 man. He's one of my favorite players. 1076 01:07:15,600 --> 01:07:18,080 I mean if you're in discord you've seen my avatar. 1077 01:07:18,120 --> 01:07:21,680 It's the Derrick Henry face. The guy is he's the best. 1078 01:07:21,680 --> 01:07:24,840 I love Derrick Henry. Wish he was helping me more 1079 01:07:24,840 --> 01:07:27,320 financially. But I mean, the the whole thesis 1080 01:07:27,320 --> 01:07:30,160 for the fade was, I mean, the only way he buries me is if he 1081 01:07:30,160 --> 01:07:32,440 gets 2000 yards and 20 touchdowns. 1082 01:07:32,760 --> 01:07:36,080 And Derrick Henry just said hold my beer like that's lightweight. 1083 01:07:36,880 --> 01:07:42,280 So yeah, he's he's a fun one. OK, this one is interesting 1084 01:07:42,280 --> 01:07:44,800 though just. Sure, before RAM I just because 1085 01:07:44,800 --> 01:07:49,320 I looked this up and Chase Brown 5 1/2 yards per carry this 1086 01:07:49,320 --> 01:07:53,400 season. Zach Moss 3.61 of them is way 1087 01:07:53,400 --> 01:07:55,680 better. Yeah, yeah, pretty, pretty 1088 01:07:55,680 --> 01:07:57,960 clearly. OK. 1089 01:07:57,960 --> 01:08:01,000 This one's interesting though. So you get this tier of guys who 1090 01:08:01,400 --> 01:08:03,800 I don't think anyone, you know, based on the Hubbard workload 1091 01:08:03,800 --> 01:08:06,360 and and his efficiency, he's he's over 5A carry. 1092 01:08:06,360 --> 01:08:08,400 Like I don't think anyone's surprised to see him where he is 1093 01:08:08,400 --> 01:08:10,760 on the chart. Same with Henry, Karen Williams, 1094 01:08:10,760 --> 01:08:13,480 Jonathan Taylor. Hoping that Taylor comes back 1095 01:08:13,480 --> 01:08:16,840 from that ankle injury soon, but Joe Mixon is here. 1096 01:08:17,359 --> 01:08:21,560 To me, this kind of feels like one of those, you know, one of 1097 01:08:21,560 --> 01:08:24,920 these things that's not like the others spots. 1098 01:08:24,960 --> 01:08:30,240 But I'm I want to hear your your take on this Joe Mixon spot on 1099 01:08:30,240 --> 01:08:32,680 the efficiency chart. Are you buying or selling this? 1100 01:08:32,680 --> 01:08:36,000 Does he belong in this band of 15 to 20 expected fantasy points 1101 01:08:36,000 --> 01:08:42,760 a game? So in terms of expected points, 1102 01:08:42,880 --> 01:08:45,319 yeah, yeah. I mean, I think he would he was 1103 01:08:45,319 --> 01:08:51,000 drafted to to live in this world where they they they would use 1104 01:08:51,000 --> 01:08:56,040 them a lot. And and I, I I think this kind 1105 01:08:56,040 --> 01:08:58,800 of usage is, is a pretty easy projection going forward. 1106 01:08:59,200 --> 01:09:03,720 I'm not, I'm not sure if I buy the efficiency like it it and 1107 01:09:03,720 --> 01:09:06,680 it's hard to sell the efficiency when he's he's actually like 1108 01:09:07,640 --> 01:09:15,160 been so efficient. But at the same time he is an so 1109 01:09:15,160 --> 01:09:18,520 he is an older running back and and he's already gotten an 1110 01:09:18,520 --> 01:09:22,000 injury. And I I think there was people 1111 01:09:22,200 --> 01:09:25,000 kind of commenting that he he looked like he was running 1112 01:09:25,000 --> 01:09:32,600 injured in this game. So I'm I'm hearing like a fuzzy 1113 01:09:32,600 --> 01:09:35,920 like are you hearing that? I am not. 1114 01:09:35,920 --> 01:09:37,160 Can you? Can you hear me OK? 1115 01:09:37,720 --> 01:09:42,399 Yeah, yeah, I can hear you fine. So I, I, I think in, in games 1116 01:09:42,399 --> 01:09:46,120 where he plays healthy, it, it, it, it actually, it actually 1117 01:09:46,120 --> 01:09:48,640 feels like he's somebody who's young enough that he's going to 1118 01:09:48,640 --> 01:09:53,600 deliver good games. But I guess there's that risk 1119 01:09:53,600 --> 01:09:55,760 there that he, he, he, he got injured. 1120 01:09:57,440 --> 01:10:01,040 I, I, I, I think, I think that's probably the right way to think 1121 01:10:01,040 --> 01:10:08,720 about him mixing where his, his usage is good, he's good enough 1122 01:10:08,720 --> 01:10:13,720 that his well healthy, his efficiency will be OK, but you 1123 01:10:13,720 --> 01:10:15,640 probably have elevated injury risk there. 1124 01:10:16,760 --> 01:10:19,680 Yeah, the other, I mean, we also just have a really small sample 1125 01:10:19,680 --> 01:10:22,360 of him being a Texan 'cause he got, you know, he got it. 1126 01:10:22,720 --> 01:10:26,840 He only had a couple games. Now I'm interested in this spot 1127 01:10:26,840 --> 01:10:28,560 against the Packers. You know, they don't have a 1128 01:10:28,560 --> 01:10:32,360 fantastic rush defense. So I think it's interesting he 1129 01:10:32,360 --> 01:10:34,960 did only have 12 carries this last week. 1130 01:10:35,400 --> 01:10:38,040 It's probably because it was his first game off the injury and 1131 01:10:38,040 --> 01:10:39,840 they were just beating the brakes off the Patriots. 1132 01:10:39,840 --> 01:10:42,480 So no need to, you know, put a bunch of wear on him. 1133 01:10:42,960 --> 01:10:47,400 So I think they want to, I think they want to use them a lot. 1134 01:10:48,720 --> 01:10:53,920 If you want to play the Texans and Packers game to fail, he 1135 01:10:53,920 --> 01:10:57,520 seems like a great way to do it. Texans, you know, move the ball 1136 01:10:57,520 --> 01:11:00,440 efficiently on offense and then Joe Mixon gobbles up all the 1137 01:11:00,440 --> 01:11:02,800 points. That seems like an interesting 1138 01:11:02,800 --> 01:11:09,600 angle to that game to me. But yeah, I wanted I I'm glad I 1139 01:11:09,600 --> 01:11:12,400 got your insight on if you're buying or selling him. 1140 01:11:13,040 --> 01:11:16,560 Seems seems like you kind of land in in whole territory. 1141 01:11:17,320 --> 01:11:21,640 Yeah, yeah. I mean, like I I was went into 1142 01:11:21,640 --> 01:11:25,920 the season as a sell Nixon guy because of the age risk. 1143 01:11:26,600 --> 01:11:28,840 And I think you've gotten like some of the good and the bad 1144 01:11:28,840 --> 01:11:32,840 there where like he's looked better than maybe I'd expected. 1145 01:11:33,480 --> 01:11:39,760 But then injuries come with being old too, as I well know. 1146 01:11:43,000 --> 01:11:47,160 OK, couple more guys I wanted to touch on quickly on this chart 1147 01:11:47,160 --> 01:11:51,480 before you go to the next one. So you get Saquon Barkley and 1148 01:11:51,480 --> 01:11:55,720 he's living in that 10 to 15 expected fantasy point band with 1149 01:11:55,720 --> 01:12:00,400 guys like James Cook, Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs, Draco. 1150 01:12:00,400 --> 01:12:04,120 I was told Saquon Barkley was going to score 30 fantasy points 1151 01:12:04,240 --> 01:12:06,240 every game. What gives? 1152 01:12:07,640 --> 01:12:12,520 Yeah, and I'm actually I'm kind of surprised here as well. 1153 01:12:12,880 --> 01:12:19,400 And so this this expected points. 1154 01:12:19,680 --> 01:12:28,040 So he, it looks like he's coming in and where I, I'm showing, I'm 1155 01:12:28,040 --> 01:12:31,880 showing him coming in at 1817.9 expected points a game. 1156 01:12:32,000 --> 01:12:36,680 Oh, oh, that, that's a, if you, if you include week 1, he's got 1157 01:12:36,680 --> 01:12:40,240 17.9 expected points a game. That that's, that's the 1158 01:12:40,240 --> 01:12:42,880 disconnect there. Whereas in the last day, in the 1159 01:12:42,880 --> 01:12:46,240 last four weeks, it's, it's trended closer to 14. 1160 01:12:47,280 --> 01:12:52,840 And and so with that, he's he's kind of ticked down to a 73% 1161 01:12:52,840 --> 01:12:58,200 snap rate. And so he's actually they've 1162 01:12:58,200 --> 01:13:01,640 used Kenneth Gainwell as the pass blocker more often. 1163 01:13:01,640 --> 01:13:04,240 So he's kind of siphoned off some of those routes. 1164 01:13:05,720 --> 01:13:10,600 And then it also seems like they've kind of started to 1165 01:13:10,640 --> 01:13:15,000 establish the, the, the the Broderly shove a little bit more 1166 01:13:15,000 --> 01:13:18,480 so that that rushing expected points has come down too. 1167 01:13:19,720 --> 01:13:23,360 And it the the answer is probably somewhere in the 1168 01:13:23,360 --> 01:13:24,600 middle. He's probably like something 1169 01:13:24,600 --> 01:13:32,680 like a 1515 expected points and per game guy, which that that 1170 01:13:32,680 --> 01:13:35,400 that seems pretty in that actually seems pretty in keeping 1171 01:13:35,400 --> 01:13:38,160 with what we would have expected before the the season. 1172 01:13:38,680 --> 01:13:42,400 And then how he's kind of salvage that this year and so 1173 01:13:42,400 --> 01:13:45,000 far anyway has been breaking off the long runs. 1174 01:13:45,800 --> 01:13:51,080 And I don't know the that online is really good. 1175 01:13:51,080 --> 01:13:55,920 So maybe we should expect it to happen some of the time, But I 1176 01:13:55,920 --> 01:13:59,000 I'm feeling pretty marked, say, from Saquon right now. 1177 01:14:00,120 --> 01:14:05,800 Yeah, I I want to look up the Jordan Mileata injury. 1178 01:14:07,880 --> 01:14:09,040 Yeah. So it looks like Jordan 1179 01:14:09,040 --> 01:14:13,440 Mileata's hamstring injury is going to cause him to miss time. 1180 01:14:13,640 --> 01:14:16,560 I think he was getting an MRI today, so it's going to be a 1181 01:14:16,560 --> 01:14:21,240 couple weeks. That's definitely a big loss for 1182 01:14:21,240 --> 01:14:24,840 the Eagles. I I think he's. 1183 01:14:24,840 --> 01:14:26,360 An offensive lineman for the Mizzy. 1184 01:14:26,760 --> 01:14:32,040 Yeah, I think that impacts Saquon's upside a little bit 1185 01:14:32,040 --> 01:14:35,360 there because you want those big holes open so that you can break 1186 01:14:35,360 --> 01:14:39,440 off the explosive runs. That being said, like he, you 1187 01:14:39,440 --> 01:14:41,480 know, they're playing against the Browns. 1188 01:14:41,480 --> 01:14:43,120 The Browns have a pretty good defense. 1189 01:14:44,280 --> 01:14:48,840 He still looked fine, you know, and the the parts of that game 1190 01:14:48,840 --> 01:14:52,960 that I caught, he looked he didn't look bad to me by any. 1191 01:14:53,160 --> 01:14:56,480 You know, I'm I'm the resident Saquon hater here. 1192 01:14:56,480 --> 01:15:00,560 Like he didn't look bad. So it's it's not if you have 1193 01:15:00,560 --> 01:15:02,520 Saquon bags, you don't need to panic on them. 1194 01:15:03,040 --> 01:15:07,040 I just think that what you saw to start the season is like, 1195 01:15:07,160 --> 01:15:09,120 don't expect that every single week. 1196 01:15:09,840 --> 01:15:11,840 Right, that's the high end of his range. 1197 01:15:12,160 --> 01:15:14,760 Yeah, And what you got these last couple weeks, you know, 1198 01:15:15,760 --> 01:15:19,280 this week and then the one prior to the buy, that's that's 1199 01:15:19,280 --> 01:15:21,360 probably a little on the low side for him. 1200 01:15:21,360 --> 01:15:24,320 So reality probably lies somewhere in between there. 1201 01:15:24,600 --> 01:15:28,120 I do think though, this revenge game that he gets against the 1202 01:15:28,120 --> 01:15:31,120 Giants is a pretty interesting spot. 1203 01:15:31,560 --> 01:15:35,680 I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Eagles try to get him, 1204 01:15:36,160 --> 01:15:38,960 you know, some touchdowns, couple touchdowns here. 1205 01:15:39,280 --> 01:15:42,040 So yeah, it's a. It's a fun spot here for sure. 1206 01:15:42,240 --> 01:15:44,960 It's an interesting and revenge game narrative. 1207 01:15:45,480 --> 01:15:53,360 Yeah, I will say so in in week 5 and Saquon he had just 737.6 1208 01:15:53,360 --> 01:16:02,560 expected rushing yards and but he kind of he's his expected 1209 01:16:02,560 --> 01:16:06,520 points piece kind of saved that with a one with one expected 1210 01:16:06,520 --> 01:16:10,080 touchdown. And actually week that's not 1211 01:16:10,080 --> 01:16:13,160 week 5, that's week 4. Yeah, I was going to say week 1212 01:16:13,160 --> 01:16:17,240 five he had zero expected yards. He's on the line. 1213 01:16:18,400 --> 01:16:24,320 But then so Week 6, just 80 expected rushing yards, 0 1214 01:16:24,320 --> 01:16:30,800 expected touchdowns or 0.05. And so it, it is surprising to 1215 01:16:30,800 --> 01:16:34,640 me that that those games are actually in his in his range. 1216 01:16:35,600 --> 01:16:40,600 And like you like, I think what you're kind of getting at is 1217 01:16:40,600 --> 01:16:44,320 you're going to get to an average of 15 expected points 1218 01:16:44,320 --> 01:16:48,040 per game. True, some highs and lows that 1219 01:16:48,520 --> 01:16:52,720 that we we overreacted too much to the to the upside of what 1220 01:16:52,720 --> 01:16:55,640 happens. We shouldn't overreact to the 1221 01:16:55,640 --> 01:16:57,600 bottom falling out in a couple weeks as well. 1222 01:16:58,360 --> 01:17:04,160 Right, let's see. The other one that I wanted to 1223 01:17:04,160 --> 01:17:06,240 point out. He's right next to Saquon on the 1224 01:17:06,240 --> 01:17:12,680 chart, but he's got some, he's got some tailwinds here to help 1225 01:17:12,680 --> 01:17:17,440 him out for this next week because I believe Tajay Spears 1226 01:17:17,440 --> 01:17:19,520 is injured. Let me pull up and see if 1227 01:17:19,520 --> 01:17:23,800 there's any any new Tajay Spears injury news here. 1228 01:17:23,800 --> 01:17:24,360 But. He left. 1229 01:17:24,360 --> 01:17:27,400 He left the game with a hamstring injury and if I 1230 01:17:27,400 --> 01:17:32,600 remember, he was kind of ruled out relatively like relatively 1231 01:17:32,600 --> 01:17:34,480 quickly. Yeah, it looks like the most 1232 01:17:34,480 --> 01:17:37,040 recent thing is that he's week to week. 1233 01:17:37,040 --> 01:17:39,800 So I would assume that he is missing this week. 1234 01:17:39,800 --> 01:17:45,360 So then you get Pollard here has a pretty good match up against 1235 01:17:45,360 --> 01:17:48,960 the Bills. I'm definitely interested in him 1236 01:17:49,040 --> 01:17:53,120 in this spot. What do you think about Pollard 1237 01:17:53,120 --> 01:17:56,720 here and how does his role change with Spears out? 1238 01:17:58,240 --> 01:18:02,080 So I think we got it. We actually got a pretty good 1239 01:18:02,080 --> 01:18:07,600 view as to how his role would be and wit wit Spears out in that 1240 01:18:07,600 --> 01:18:11,440 he got pretty much all the work in week six. 1241 01:18:11,560 --> 01:18:15,120 They they involved Julius Chestnut a little bit, but 1242 01:18:15,280 --> 01:18:18,920 honestly very, very little only to spell Pollard. 1243 01:18:20,280 --> 01:18:25,120 And I think that it's kind of like you kind of need that 1244 01:18:25,120 --> 01:18:28,600 offense to go to go room and for him to work. 1245 01:18:29,080 --> 01:18:32,320 Because if you look, even with all that work, he only had 1246 01:18:32,320 --> 01:18:35,520 1212.3 expected points last week. 1247 01:18:36,560 --> 01:18:39,760 And even despite consolidating almost everything. 1248 01:18:40,720 --> 01:18:49,240 So like, I think, I think that's a good like GPP play where it's 1249 01:18:49,240 --> 01:18:51,160 Tony Pollard, they're going to use them a lot. 1250 01:18:51,200 --> 01:18:58,080 So you have upside there. But you do have to be mindful of 1251 01:18:58,080 --> 01:19:02,360 the the systemic risk with the offense because like that stuff 1252 01:19:02,360 --> 01:19:03,760 seems really bad right now, right? 1253 01:19:05,080 --> 01:19:08,240 Yeah, yeah, certainly. And yeah, I think that's the 1254 01:19:08,240 --> 01:19:10,200 only cold water on Pollard this week. 1255 01:19:10,600 --> 01:19:14,840 Good, Good match up, good role. The offense just stinks out 1256 01:19:14,840 --> 01:19:17,680 loud. So and, and honestly, I, I was 1257 01:19:17,680 --> 01:19:23,520 watching the game 'cause I had some some stuff going in the 1258 01:19:25,000 --> 01:19:29,640 their game last week and the only like his, his touchdown was 1259 01:19:29,640 --> 01:19:32,400 such a fluke play. It was like a draw play on like 1260 01:19:32,400 --> 01:19:35,000 third and 19 or something stupid. 1261 01:19:35,640 --> 01:19:37,880 I don't think it was third, maybe third and 13 or something. 1262 01:19:38,240 --> 01:19:43,040 It, it was just like it, it wasn't even a you know, 1263 01:19:43,040 --> 01:19:45,480 sometimes you see teams call these draw plays when it's third 1264 01:19:45,480 --> 01:19:47,760 in forever because they're just trying to like get a little 1265 01:19:47,760 --> 01:19:50,000 field position and then they'll kick a field goal or punt or 1266 01:19:50,000 --> 01:19:53,480 whatever. They were like well within field 1267 01:19:53,480 --> 01:19:58,320 goal range, Like getting a few yards closer to me didn't seem 1268 01:19:58,320 --> 01:20:02,040 worth like just basically doing the wave the white flag on 3rd 1269 01:20:02,040 --> 01:20:04,640 down, like throw a throw a pass. I mean, I guess you have Will 1270 01:20:04,640 --> 01:20:07,320 Levis in your quarterback. So maybe throwing the pass is 1271 01:20:07,320 --> 01:20:09,280 waving the white flag, but Pollard just. 1272 01:20:10,000 --> 01:20:13,040 You know, breaks a couple terrible arm tackles and then 1273 01:20:13,040 --> 01:20:16,320 rumbles into the end zone on what what most teams would 1274 01:20:16,320 --> 01:20:21,120 consider like a give up play. So it was a little fluky to me. 1275 01:20:21,240 --> 01:20:25,200 So I I think the cold water is probably warranted here where 1276 01:20:25,200 --> 01:20:27,600 maybe you don't want to get out over your skis too much on 1277 01:20:27,600 --> 01:20:33,000 Pollard, but he does seem to be in a pretty good spot this week. 1278 01:20:33,800 --> 01:20:36,800 Yeah, yeah. I, I, I, I agree for sure. 1279 01:20:36,880 --> 01:20:40,480 I agree for sure. OK. 1280 01:20:40,560 --> 01:20:46,520 The other notes I had for the efficiency charts are for guys 1281 01:20:46,520 --> 01:20:49,360 on the next one, so if you want to flip. 1282 01:20:49,360 --> 01:20:54,080 Over there, Yeah. Oh oh, I scrolled on the on the 1283 01:20:54,080 --> 01:20:58,680 stream yard page, not the our tab, not the not the chart 1. 1284 01:21:01,760 --> 01:21:06,280 So the the first note that I had is on Kamara, who currently is 1285 01:21:06,280 --> 01:21:09,800 the only guy above the 20 expected fantasy point per week 1286 01:21:09,800 --> 01:21:13,520 threshold. So the only guy who, you know, 1287 01:21:13,520 --> 01:21:16,480 if we ended the season today would be close to delivering a 1288 01:21:16,480 --> 01:21:20,640 legendary season. However, I'm, you know, I'm 1289 01:21:20,640 --> 01:21:22,920 worried he's going to be coming back down to earth here pretty 1290 01:21:22,920 --> 01:21:24,800 soon. You got the injuries to the 1291 01:21:24,800 --> 01:21:27,360 Saints offensive line. You have Derek Carr out for a 1292 01:21:27,360 --> 01:21:31,560 couple weeks and Spencer Rattler in, and then you have a pretty 1293 01:21:31,560 --> 01:21:34,800 formidable run defense in the Broncos that they are going 1294 01:21:34,800 --> 01:21:39,720 against here on Thursday night. So do you think this is the the 1295 01:21:39,720 --> 01:21:45,760 beginning of Kamara starting to trend down or will he just get 1296 01:21:45,760 --> 01:21:48,880 such an absurd amount of volume that it doesn't? 1297 01:21:48,880 --> 01:21:51,520 Matter, I think, I think we're, it, it feels a little bit like 1298 01:21:51,520 --> 01:21:54,960 we're we're right now we're looking after Kamara from last 1299 01:21:54,960 --> 01:22:00,360 year where yeah, he, he actually does get a really high amount of 1300 01:22:00,360 --> 01:22:03,720 volume. Like even last week he had 21.7 1301 01:22:03,720 --> 01:22:10,720 expected points and then that equated to 17.4 points. 1302 01:22:10,840 --> 01:22:14,920 So even though like efficiency there is horrific, you're still 1303 01:22:14,920 --> 01:22:22,080 actually getting decent points. I think there's there probably 1304 01:22:22,080 --> 01:22:25,440 is there probably is just inherent risks with somebody 1305 01:22:25,440 --> 01:22:29,600 maintaining such a great volume in the face of inefficiency one 1306 01:22:29,600 --> 01:22:33,880 way or another. But it's hard to see anybody 1307 01:22:33,880 --> 01:22:38,440 coming to like unseat him. Like it's hard to envision them 1308 01:22:38,440 --> 01:22:42,760 saying like, OK, time to sorry Camara, it's Kendra time. 1309 01:22:43,480 --> 01:22:47,160 And Kendra is going to be active for Thursday and I. 1310 01:22:47,160 --> 01:22:49,000 Believe. I'm very excited about that. 1311 01:22:50,280 --> 01:22:54,280 Yeah, Kendra, not even on an injury report, which I, I should 1312 01:22:54,280 --> 01:22:59,960 hope not. Taysom is a limited participant 1313 01:23:00,120 --> 01:23:04,440 on in their Tuesday walkthrough. And and you know, Taysom is 1314 01:23:04,440 --> 01:23:07,920 really like he's closer to a running back than he ever has 1315 01:23:07,920 --> 01:23:11,840 been before. So I think him and Kendra are 1316 01:23:12,880 --> 01:23:16,240 the two largest threats to Kamara keeping this up. 1317 01:23:18,120 --> 01:23:22,960 But yeah, I think it's. Like a scam, it's a scam. 1318 01:23:22,960 --> 01:23:27,680 People are back is what he is. Yeah, he's so I think the best 1319 01:23:27,680 --> 01:23:30,880 way to put it is he's he's not in free fall, but he's probably 1320 01:23:30,880 --> 01:23:35,840 not going to be living in this plus 20 expected fantasy points 1321 01:23:36,120 --> 01:23:39,440 reach of the chart forever. Right, right. 1322 01:23:40,000 --> 01:23:42,520 Like you, you can't project that for the rest of the way. 1323 01:23:42,520 --> 01:23:44,120 Yeah. But. 1324 01:23:44,400 --> 01:23:46,880 You're getting you're getting a small win where you drafted them 1325 01:23:47,120 --> 01:23:51,160 in in basketball. Quick, I, I had a couple quick 1326 01:23:51,160 --> 01:23:54,680 hitters here that I don't think we need to spend a ton of time 1327 01:23:54,680 --> 01:23:57,120 on. One was just David Montgomery 1328 01:23:57,120 --> 01:24:01,720 was going way too low and best well drafts like the guy's role 1329 01:24:01,720 --> 01:24:04,760 is not all that much different than Gibbs. 1330 01:24:05,320 --> 01:24:07,640 They have different skill sets and they're utilized in 1331 01:24:07,640 --> 01:24:10,880 different ways, but like the opportunities that he's getting 1332 01:24:10,880 --> 01:24:13,640 compared to the opportunities Gibbs is getting, like they're 1333 01:24:13,640 --> 01:24:15,840 similar. David Montgomery just has so 1334 01:24:15,840 --> 01:24:17,400 much touchdown equity on the lines. 1335 01:24:17,400 --> 01:24:20,040 Got a touchdown in eight straight games with them. 1336 01:24:21,240 --> 01:24:25,000 And this is this thing is the most baffling part to me. 1337 01:24:25,000 --> 01:24:30,720 But man, the contingent upside stuff is properly priced on guys 1338 01:24:30,720 --> 01:24:33,520 that like have no role themselves. 1339 01:24:33,520 --> 01:24:37,640 Like for example, on, you know, like the Eli Mitchell types or 1340 01:24:37,640 --> 01:24:40,720 like if you if you go back in time to like how Alexander 1341 01:24:40,720 --> 01:24:43,680 Madison was priced when he was backing up Dalvin Cook. 1342 01:24:43,680 --> 01:24:47,920 Like we priced those guys I think pretty reasonably where 1343 01:24:47,920 --> 01:24:50,400 where they don't really have any standalone value, but they have 1344 01:24:50,400 --> 01:24:52,920 this huge upside if the starter were to go down. 1345 01:24:53,160 --> 01:24:54,720 Those guys, I think we priced just fine. 1346 01:24:55,080 --> 01:24:59,760 But guys like David Montgomery or Tyler Algier, like these guys 1347 01:24:59,760 --> 01:25:04,880 who have this standalone role that is like not only just like 1348 01:25:04,880 --> 01:25:07,680 David Montgomery's role isn't just usable. 1349 01:25:07,960 --> 01:25:11,400 You know, when when Gibbs is healthy and, and fully active, 1350 01:25:11,400 --> 01:25:15,000 like it's pretty good. And then if Gibbs goes down, 1351 01:25:15,000 --> 01:25:17,760 we've seen what happens. David Montgomery becomes like 1352 01:25:18,120 --> 01:25:21,240 probably the RV 2 or RV3 for those weeks. 1353 01:25:21,240 --> 01:25:25,160 Like the the work is insane. And he's the type of back that 1354 01:25:25,160 --> 01:25:27,680 can handle that like over a limited. 1355 01:25:27,880 --> 01:25:31,720 Stretch It's the boring box in the 1B role that would probably 1356 01:25:31,720 --> 01:25:35,040 own their price. Like it's hard to envision David 1357 01:25:35,040 --> 01:25:38,680 Montgomery upside. So it there's nothing that gets 1358 01:25:38,680 --> 01:25:43,840 priced in there when like the contingent upside is is almost 1359 01:25:43,840 --> 01:25:46,720 the equivalent of of like a similar of a similar. 1360 01:25:46,760 --> 01:25:49,880 Prayer and I'm I'm more just saying this to like self 1361 01:25:49,880 --> 01:25:53,200 flagellate a little bit because this was a some a discussion 1362 01:25:53,200 --> 01:25:56,080 that I had with a bunch of people during the offseason on 1363 01:25:56,080 --> 01:25:59,400 why David Montgomery is too low. And I thought he he should be 1364 01:25:59,400 --> 01:26:04,080 going a lot higher. And I just I did not have strong 1365 01:26:04,080 --> 01:26:07,520 enough conviction myself to get massively overweight on David 1366 01:26:07,520 --> 01:26:10,840 Montgomery. I, I relied on, you know, other 1367 01:26:10,840 --> 01:26:14,360 people who I, I think are really good at evaluating players. 1368 01:26:14,760 --> 01:26:17,680 And I saw the upside case for Gibbs too, which, you know, I 1369 01:26:17,680 --> 01:26:21,480 was I was happy to take Jameer Gibbs, But I think we want to be 1370 01:26:21,480 --> 01:26:24,720 really careful about letting the upside case of one player blind 1371 01:26:24,720 --> 01:26:26,320 us to the upside case of another. 1372 01:26:26,640 --> 01:26:31,280 And it's just not a mistake I will be making again, just want 1373 01:26:31,280 --> 01:26:33,360 to want to remind myself to consider the full range of 1374 01:26:33,360 --> 01:26:37,240 outcomes for every player and not just, you know, hide a 1375 01:26:37,240 --> 01:26:41,960 portion of the range of outcomes because it inherently, you know, 1376 01:26:42,080 --> 01:26:44,920 means that you're getting a worse outcome for a player that 1377 01:26:44,920 --> 01:26:48,600 other people like. So that just just a note that I 1378 01:26:48,600 --> 01:26:52,960 had here for David Montgomery and then the other quick note 1379 01:26:53,000 --> 01:26:57,040 that I had here was just on Jags backfield. 1380 01:26:57,680 --> 01:26:59,360 I mean, you've got Travis ETN here. 1381 01:26:59,360 --> 01:27:06,320 He's barely, barely cresting into the 10 expected fantasy 1382 01:27:06,320 --> 01:27:10,880 point range here. And and then we already talked 1383 01:27:10,880 --> 01:27:14,320 about, you know, the the trouble that you're getting with Deronis 1384 01:27:14,320 --> 01:27:18,520 Johnson working in and tank Bigsby, you know, not not 1385 01:27:18,520 --> 01:27:20,600 looking like he's ever going to have any kind of role in the 1386 01:27:20,600 --> 01:27:23,480 passing game. I kind of think this Jags 1387 01:27:23,480 --> 01:27:26,080 backfield might be entirely unusable this season. 1388 01:27:26,080 --> 01:27:29,880 They they might just be a team that's bad enough with enough 1389 01:27:29,920 --> 01:27:34,120 mouths going there that it's just not a no no guy. 1390 01:27:34,120 --> 01:27:38,080 Here is the answer. Damn. 1391 01:27:38,280 --> 01:27:40,920 Yeah, Yeah, I, I, I agree with you. 1392 01:27:41,360 --> 01:27:43,480 I think we kind of like teased that that was a strong 1393 01:27:43,480 --> 01:27:47,200 possibility last week and this week kind of just confirms it. 1394 01:27:47,760 --> 01:27:51,960 Yeah, the Dernis Johnson stuff, man, I was, I don't know if you 1395 01:27:51,960 --> 01:27:55,560 remember this is a few, I think it was the Jags London game 1396 01:27:56,000 --> 01:28:00,960 where I it was after the Bigsby injury where he like still saw 1397 01:28:00,960 --> 01:28:03,760 special teams work. And I, I, I KB to projection 1398 01:28:03,760 --> 01:28:06,680 really hard and said Dernis Johnson was the running back to 1399 01:28:06,680 --> 01:28:09,480 Too bad I didn't do it on this game. 1400 01:28:09,760 --> 01:28:15,680 Too bad I was I was right on the read that it was not tanks big V 1401 01:28:15,680 --> 01:28:18,280 backfield dominator. It was it was going to be a 1402 01:28:18,280 --> 01:28:22,160 committee, but that's OK. Wrong, wrong slate to do it on. 1403 01:28:22,680 --> 01:28:25,840 I did want to very briefly touch on Dijon Robinson before we move 1404 01:28:25,840 --> 01:28:28,120 on 'cause we had that good question for run good Rick. 1405 01:28:29,000 --> 01:28:32,160 He said Bijon's performance got there last week, but it felt 1406 01:28:32,160 --> 01:28:36,840 underwhelming. And so you can see Bijon here. 1407 01:28:36,840 --> 01:28:38,280 He's like dead center in the chart. 1408 01:28:38,360 --> 01:28:41,080 It's right next to James Conner, right next to Najee Harris. 1409 01:28:41,720 --> 01:28:47,400 The really unfortunate truth for Bijon so far this season is that 1410 01:28:48,160 --> 01:28:51,880 he's not clearly the best runner in his backfield. 1411 01:28:52,160 --> 01:28:54,720 And that's not to take anything away from Bijon. 1412 01:28:54,760 --> 01:28:57,120 It's or to say that Tyler Algiers been good. 1413 01:28:58,320 --> 01:29:01,840 And so it just makes it hard for Bijon to actually dominate the 1414 01:29:01,840 --> 01:29:04,280 backfield and get this massive workload. 1415 01:29:05,080 --> 01:29:08,080 And it's really frustrating when you you know, you have a guy as 1416 01:29:08,080 --> 01:29:10,840 good as Tyler Algier who he's going to take away touchdowns 1417 01:29:10,840 --> 01:29:15,840 from Bichon. And he just, I mean, yeah, he's 1418 01:29:15,840 --> 01:29:17,960 getting some passing game work. You see, he's got, you know, a 1419 01:29:17,960 --> 01:29:21,440 little above 4 expected receiving fantasy points a game. 1420 01:29:22,320 --> 01:29:27,160 But it's just it's not enough with Algier butchering it or, 1421 01:29:27,400 --> 01:29:30,760 or, you know, kind of cutting up the backfield and taking his 1422 01:29:30,760 --> 01:29:35,240 share of it. So I I don't know how I feel 1423 01:29:35,240 --> 01:29:38,440 about Bijon. He's probably like, if you look 1424 01:29:38,440 --> 01:29:42,200 at him on in the dog bowl this week, he's probably a little 1425 01:29:42,200 --> 01:29:45,240 overdrafted, right? Like he's he's going a bit high 1426 01:29:45,440 --> 01:29:48,560 right now. And you know, same for BRS in 1427 01:29:48,560 --> 01:29:52,200 general, like here. Here's an interesting one. 1428 01:29:53,000 --> 01:29:57,040 Bijon Robinson or either of the Lions running backs this week? 1429 01:29:59,160 --> 01:30:03,280 And can you guys hear me OK? I can hear you OK. 1430 01:30:04,120 --> 01:30:05,720 I can't. I I couldn't hear you for a 1431 01:30:05,720 --> 01:30:15,760 minute and I panicked a little. And so my thoughts on on Bijan 1432 01:30:15,760 --> 01:30:18,240 is that he actually did play quite well last week. 1433 01:30:18,920 --> 01:30:24,920 But like you said, and the Algier out, we were told, is 1434 01:30:24,920 --> 01:30:28,360 that the kind of this offseason that like, listen, our plan is 1435 01:30:28,360 --> 01:30:30,800 to run the piss out of Bijan Robinson. 1436 01:30:31,920 --> 01:30:34,360 But they're, they're clearly they're splitting. 1437 01:30:34,640 --> 01:30:39,600 They're splitting the carries. And actually in Week 6, Algier 1438 01:30:39,600 --> 01:30:43,920 had more carries than Bijan, which that that's a little 1439 01:30:43,920 --> 01:30:48,560 surprising. Bijan had 18 rounds to four. 1440 01:30:49,720 --> 01:30:55,400 So I think Bijan's workload is more like a third round back or 1441 01:30:55,400 --> 01:30:57,600 like a fourth round back than a first round back. 1442 01:30:58,640 --> 01:31:05,640 And you can still get some big upside games from his like big 1443 01:31:05,640 --> 01:31:09,160 Spike games from his kind of his talent upside. 1444 01:31:09,880 --> 01:31:14,880 But the usage like this is much worse usage than we're expecting 1445 01:31:14,960 --> 01:31:18,000 or hoping for. Yeah, yeah. 1446 01:31:19,440 --> 01:31:21,280 OK. Let's move on to the tight end 1447 01:31:21,280 --> 01:31:24,280 charts here. If we if we cook, we might be 1448 01:31:24,280 --> 01:31:27,200 able to get out of here under 2 hours Draco, which would be a 1449 01:31:27,200 --> 01:31:31,880 personal record for us. Yeah, that would be, that would 1450 01:31:31,960 --> 01:31:33,960 be a record and I feel like we can do it. 1451 01:31:35,040 --> 01:31:38,600 Why? Don't you let's like people 1452 01:31:38,600 --> 01:31:41,680 listen to this podcast in 2X speed. 1453 01:31:41,680 --> 01:31:43,320 Why don't we just talk in 2X speed? 1454 01:31:43,720 --> 01:31:46,400 And so we get through this very quickly and why don't you go 1455 01:31:46,400 --> 01:31:49,160 ahead? OK, first I think you need to 1456 01:31:49,160 --> 01:31:52,000 reshare your screen because the tight end chart is not showing 1457 01:31:52,000 --> 01:31:53,480 up. I think when you disconnected 1458 01:31:53,480 --> 01:31:56,560 earlier, your screen share may have failed there, but we're 1459 01:31:56,560 --> 01:31:59,400 going to continue talking into X speed just for the bit because 1460 01:31:59,400 --> 01:32:01,000 it's much more fun to do it this way. 1461 01:32:01,000 --> 01:32:04,520 Imagine the person who's hearing me talk at 4X speed, they must 1462 01:32:04,520 --> 01:32:07,880 think that I took so, so, so much Adderall before the show. 1463 01:32:08,360 --> 01:32:10,840 Now we're about to have the tight end charts up here, but 1464 01:32:10,840 --> 01:32:13,880 I'm going to just absolutely keep the verbal diarrhea flowing 1465 01:32:14,320 --> 01:32:16,760 again in the bit. Now we've got the tight end 1466 01:32:16,760 --> 01:32:18,720 chart on the screen. I will go ahead and give it to 1467 01:32:18,720 --> 01:32:20,840 you, Draco, to explain to the folks what they're seeing here. 1468 01:32:22,520 --> 01:32:25,000 So this is our tight end utilization and efficiency 1469 01:32:25,000 --> 01:32:27,320 chart. On the bottom axis, you've got 1470 01:32:27,320 --> 01:32:31,440 percentage of team dropbacks. The green bar I'm actually going 1471 01:32:31,440 --> 01:32:34,400 to have to slow down. The green bar corresponds to the 1472 01:32:34,560 --> 01:32:37,640 percentage of their team dropbacks that they're running a 1473 01:32:37,640 --> 01:32:41,480 route. And then the red bar, or is it a 1474 01:32:41,480 --> 01:32:43,680 pink bar? Is that pass blocking? 1475 01:32:43,880 --> 01:32:48,040 And so then you get the full picture of of what percentage of 1476 01:32:48,040 --> 01:32:50,240 team dropbacks are they on the field for? 1477 01:32:50,720 --> 01:32:54,720 And then, and we also give you that focus on when are they 1478 01:32:54,720 --> 01:32:58,920 actually running a route. Then we also have a dot and 1479 01:32:58,920 --> 01:33:01,480 target sprout run because we want that. 1480 01:33:01,480 --> 01:33:04,080 We want them receiving stats to right. 1481 01:33:04,080 --> 01:33:06,960 We don't want just like empty calorie routes. 1482 01:33:08,840 --> 01:33:12,920 I had a couple notes here on the chart and the bit was very fun 1483 01:33:12,920 --> 01:33:16,040 talking at 4X speed, but I'm just going to going to focus on 1484 01:33:16,040 --> 01:33:17,520 the analysis here. We'll we'll get through it 1485 01:33:17,520 --> 01:33:20,520 regardless. So the first one I have is this 1486 01:33:20,520 --> 01:33:23,720 Colby Parkinson 27% targets for route run. 1487 01:33:23,960 --> 01:33:27,600 Guy's been having insane amount of targets the last three weeks. 1488 01:33:28,800 --> 01:33:34,760 I I'm here to call danger danger Colby Parkinson is about to get 1489 01:33:35,480 --> 01:33:38,360 cocked by Cooper cuck if he comes back this week. 1490 01:33:38,720 --> 01:33:42,320 So I would just say if you're like doing drafts, if you're 1491 01:33:42,320 --> 01:33:45,960 doing BRS, Colby Parkinson looks like a really interesting Scroll 1492 01:33:45,960 --> 01:33:51,200 down tight end. I would just say be cognizant. 1493 01:33:51,320 --> 01:33:54,920 Don't don't jam a billion percent Colby Parkinson right 1494 01:33:54,920 --> 01:33:58,640 now before we find out what the status is of Cooper Cup. 1495 01:33:59,320 --> 01:34:01,760 You just might, you might find yourself sitting there with 1496 01:34:01,760 --> 01:34:05,800 Colby Parkinson, you know, 12% targets per route run instead of 1497 01:34:05,800 --> 01:34:10,320 the 27%. So just want to be very cautious 1498 01:34:10,360 --> 01:34:14,880 there. Do you have anything to add on 1499 01:34:14,880 --> 01:34:16,880 Colby Parkinson or can I move on to the next guy? 1500 01:34:16,880 --> 01:34:19,720 Yeah, I think, I think you can move on and that was good 1501 01:34:19,720 --> 01:34:21,960 analysis. Here, here you go. 1502 01:34:22,000 --> 01:34:25,480 This is a classic, classic victory lap spot. 1503 01:34:25,480 --> 01:34:29,920 So all offseason I was calling Dalton Kincaid fancy Evan 1504 01:34:29,920 --> 01:34:33,120 Ingram. And I actually I need to take an 1505 01:34:33,120 --> 01:34:36,000 L on that because he is not fancy Evan Ingram. 1506 01:34:36,680 --> 01:34:39,000 Dalton Kincaid is just a poor man's Evan Ingram. 1507 01:34:40,280 --> 01:34:44,480 Yeah, it's Evan Ingram. Comes back first game, He's 1508 01:34:44,480 --> 01:34:47,400 healthy. Guy's just back back on his 1509 01:34:47,400 --> 01:34:50,000 bullshit. 31% targets per route run. 1510 01:34:50,200 --> 01:34:52,640 Doesn't matter that we have Brian Thomas junior, this 1511 01:34:52,640 --> 01:34:54,360 incredible wide receiver on our team. 1512 01:34:54,680 --> 01:34:57,520 Evan Ingram is a target magnet, baby. 1513 01:34:57,800 --> 01:35:00,520 And he doesn't pass block at all. 1514 01:35:00,840 --> 01:35:06,000 I man Evan Ingram, another guy that I I was pretty high on. 1515 01:35:06,040 --> 01:35:09,800 And then I got bullied out of this offseason because, oh, 1516 01:35:09,920 --> 01:35:14,720 there's really just, you know, low A dot, not super talented, 1517 01:35:16,440 --> 01:35:19,280 you know, just you're you're just praying for another 140 1518 01:35:19,280 --> 01:35:21,640 target season. We're getting it, baby. 1519 01:35:21,640 --> 01:35:24,720 We're getting another 100 plus target season for Evan Ingram 1520 01:35:24,720 --> 01:35:29,160 here. Yeah, I just, I think in a 1521 01:35:29,160 --> 01:35:34,240 especially in this dysfunctional team like the Evan Ingram safety 1522 01:35:34,240 --> 01:35:37,960 blanket stuff, just it hits just right for the Jags so. 1523 01:35:41,240 --> 01:35:43,960 Yeah, that makes sense. That makes, that doesn't make 1524 01:35:43,960 --> 01:35:47,040 sense. I I do think like some of the 1525 01:35:47,040 --> 01:35:50,040 advanced stats for Kincaid are, are somewhat interesting. 1526 01:35:50,040 --> 01:35:55,680 Like if you look at him on the full season, he's at 70% right 1527 01:35:55,680 --> 01:36:04,400 run, he's got a 7.7 A dot and a 23% target spread run like that 1528 01:36:04,400 --> 01:36:09,200 seems like fine. I think it's way when you add 1529 01:36:09,200 --> 01:36:13,160 in, it's it's it's before you add in the context of the low 1530 01:36:13,160 --> 01:36:18,840 volume, the offense, it's it his it means his price was too high 1531 01:36:18,840 --> 01:36:21,640 just offseason. So like he's come in under of 1532 01:36:21,640 --> 01:36:25,920 what you hope for and then you layer it in and and he's he's 1533 01:36:25,920 --> 01:36:32,920 been a bad pick. But I think he actually, I think 1534 01:36:32,920 --> 01:36:38,760 you're right in that like he comes pretty similarly, like 1535 01:36:38,760 --> 01:36:44,520 stylistically and you just have a much better environment for 1536 01:36:44,520 --> 01:36:49,360 that type of player in the Jaguars than than Kincaid, than 1537 01:36:49,560 --> 01:36:53,600 the Bills. Yeah, I mean, this, this stat is 1538 01:36:54,080 --> 01:36:58,480 is doing a lot of work for me. But the Bills still have yet to 1539 01:36:58,480 --> 01:37:00,880 attempt over 30 passes this season. 1540 01:37:01,720 --> 01:37:06,520 They only were below 30 passes twice last year prior to the 1541 01:37:06,520 --> 01:37:08,640 offensive coordinator change to Joe Brady. 1542 01:37:09,880 --> 01:37:14,400 And they barely, barely beat The Jets while, you know, throwing 1543 01:37:14,400 --> 01:37:19,480 under 30 times yet again, man, it's hard to put my finger on 1544 01:37:19,480 --> 01:37:23,560 what is going wrong in Buffalo. But maybe if they looked at 1545 01:37:23,560 --> 01:37:26,040 their pass rate, they might figure it out. 1546 01:37:26,560 --> 01:37:28,880 They just might. But. 1547 01:37:28,920 --> 01:37:31,120 Yeah, maybe they should trade for a receiver. 1548 01:37:31,800 --> 01:37:36,160 Yeah, yeah, maybe I, I it's gonna be so hilarious when Amari 1549 01:37:36,160 --> 01:37:39,880 Cooper goes out there and the Bills still only throw it 26 1550 01:37:39,880 --> 01:37:42,800 times in a game. But in all seriousness, Dalton 1551 01:37:42,800 --> 01:37:44,280 Kincaid. Because that, that is their 1552 01:37:44,280 --> 01:37:45,920 plan. You need, you need a, you need a 1553 01:37:45,920 --> 01:37:49,240 coaching change. Or yeah, yeah, yeah. 1554 01:37:51,000 --> 01:37:52,560 I think you just need a clean house. 1555 01:37:52,720 --> 01:37:55,680 The entire Bills organization need new front office, new head 1556 01:37:55,680 --> 01:37:57,240 coach, new offensive coordinator. 1557 01:37:57,280 --> 01:38:00,200 I think think the Bills are wasting Josh Allen. 1558 01:38:00,400 --> 01:38:03,720 I, I think as an organization, they got bailed out by getting 1559 01:38:03,800 --> 01:38:08,640 one of the best values in the draft that you have seen in the 1560 01:38:08,640 --> 01:38:13,200 last couple decades and Josh Allen and then now they're just 1561 01:38:13,200 --> 01:38:15,880 wasting it. So, but in all seriousness, a 1562 01:38:15,880 --> 01:38:19,480 little bit of Kincaid analysis, the role is great. 1563 01:38:21,040 --> 01:38:25,040 The talent for the player I'm like not totally sold on, but I, 1564 01:38:25,680 --> 01:38:29,920 I don't even, I, I, I don't. Even think the role is great, I 1565 01:38:29,960 --> 01:38:31,200 think the role is like. Fine. 1566 01:38:31,480 --> 01:38:34,520 Well, I the, the role is great. It's just the volume, the the 1567 01:38:34,520 --> 01:38:36,920 offensive volume. Like pretend that you could 1568 01:38:36,920 --> 01:38:40,640 transpose this role into a higher pass volume offense. 1569 01:38:40,640 --> 01:38:43,400 Like all of a sudden we're pretty excited, right? 1570 01:38:45,480 --> 01:38:53,520 Yeah, I mean, just like if I'm the the if he had, if he had an 1571 01:38:53,520 --> 01:38:57,080 80% or above route run, I would agree with you. 1572 01:38:57,160 --> 01:39:02,080 It's like maybe I'm nitpicking. I'm I am nitpicking here at only 1573 01:39:02,080 --> 01:39:07,600 70% on the full year. Like the this Tigers per hour 1574 01:39:07,600 --> 01:39:11,760 run in low 20s is like it's too low to be great. 1575 01:39:11,760 --> 01:39:14,160 It's, it's, it's good, it's fine. 1576 01:39:14,840 --> 01:39:17,680 But you're right, the bigger issue, the bigger issue is the 1577 01:39:17,680 --> 01:39:20,920 drop back count. If you if you had a lot more 1578 01:39:20,920 --> 01:39:23,920 past attempts here, you'd be feeling a lot better. 1579 01:39:24,120 --> 01:39:27,000 About like, imagine, imagine Kincaid on the Seahawks where 1580 01:39:27,000 --> 01:39:28,480 they're just out there chucking it. 1581 01:39:28,600 --> 01:39:32,680 Like, right, I'd love that. Yeah, the 70% routes, you're 1582 01:39:32,680 --> 01:39:36,040 like, don't care if they're throwing 45 * a game, but like, 1583 01:39:36,520 --> 01:39:38,320 he's going to get 10 targets. It's fine. 1584 01:39:38,600 --> 01:39:40,800 Right. You'd be saying the same thing 1585 01:39:40,800 --> 01:39:42,520 about that you are about Evan Ingram. 1586 01:39:43,040 --> 01:39:47,160 Right, right. OK, couple, couple more tight 1587 01:39:47,160 --> 01:39:48,680 ends. We'll we'll try and go quick. 1588 01:39:49,080 --> 01:39:52,480 All right, Jawan Johnson, the Jawan Johnson ascension is here. 1589 01:39:52,800 --> 01:39:56,480 I know the the targets for outrun and A dot don't look 1590 01:39:56,480 --> 01:39:59,920 impressive. I just need you to ignore the 1591 01:40:00,080 --> 01:40:03,480 the previous results that we've gotten and I need you to focus 1592 01:40:03,480 --> 01:40:07,720 on the snap count trend. His snaps have been increasing 1593 01:40:07,720 --> 01:40:11,760 week over week. And you just get the ultimate, 1594 01:40:11,960 --> 01:40:14,840 you know, the perfect storm for Jawan Johnson, who is a 1595 01:40:14,840 --> 01:40:17,920 converted receiver to tight end. He's more receiver than tight 1596 01:40:17,920 --> 01:40:20,760 end. You know, you see he's he's one 1597 01:40:20,760 --> 01:40:25,040 of the guys that pass blocks at a much lower rate than some of 1598 01:40:25,040 --> 01:40:27,880 the guys like, you know, Kate Onton or George Kittle, Colby 1599 01:40:27,880 --> 01:40:29,520 Parkinson, Dalton Schultz, those guys. 1600 01:40:29,760 --> 01:40:31,960 He's not out there primarily for pass blocking. 1601 01:40:31,960 --> 01:40:33,600 He's more out there to be running routes. 1602 01:40:34,040 --> 01:40:36,160 The number of routes he's running are increasing week over 1603 01:40:36,160 --> 01:40:38,120 week. And now you have Chris Olavey 1604 01:40:38,160 --> 01:40:42,400 and Rashid Shaheed missing time. I mean, I just think this sets 1605 01:40:42,400 --> 01:40:46,800 up Jawan Johnson is about to feast for however long the 1606 01:40:46,800 --> 01:40:48,800 Saints are without their top 2 pass catchers. 1607 01:40:52,040 --> 01:40:54,960 I think it, yeah, I, I, I think, I think that's right. 1608 01:40:56,120 --> 01:41:00,080 I mean, you have to be concerned that even even with those guys 1609 01:41:00,080 --> 01:41:05,280 out, his targets per out run was still weak and and has been kind 1610 01:41:05,280 --> 01:41:08,320 of weak for his career. And I think that has to be a 1611 01:41:08,320 --> 01:41:09,520 concern in the back of your mind. 1612 01:41:09,520 --> 01:41:15,760 But as a as a way to play those injuries, Joan Johnson is a 1613 01:41:15,760 --> 01:41:17,920 pretty good way to do it. Like especially if you're 1614 01:41:18,000 --> 01:41:21,520 talking about underdog where it's happy pure and like you're 1615 01:41:21,640 --> 01:41:24,280 most people, you kind of happen to punt tight end anyway. 1616 01:41:24,680 --> 01:41:28,120 People like kind of consolidate on their favorites and if you 1617 01:41:28,120 --> 01:41:31,080 can get him on their own, like that can be pretty attractive. 1618 01:41:31,120 --> 01:41:36,520 But I, I, I still think you have to kind of call out that he's 1619 01:41:36,520 --> 01:41:39,320 been a weak target earner in his entire career. 1620 01:41:39,640 --> 01:41:44,160 He was a weak target earner even last week and you still have 1621 01:41:44,160 --> 01:41:47,800 that kind of risk factor there. Yeah, well, well said. 1622 01:41:47,800 --> 01:41:51,960 I think that's the necessary cold water for the Jawan Johnson 1623 01:41:52,320 --> 01:41:56,680 breakout. OK, last tight or no, we've got 1624 01:41:56,720 --> 01:41:58,560 got two more here, one more on this chart. 1625 01:41:59,840 --> 01:42:02,280 Aren't you worried about Sam LaPorte, Trico? 1626 01:42:03,880 --> 01:42:08,520 Yeah, Yeah. I think in in week six you, you, 1627 01:42:08,840 --> 01:42:15,840 you have to be it was a little easier to be not, not not 1628 01:42:15,840 --> 01:42:20,560 impacted. But another week where his his 1629 01:42:21,000 --> 01:42:26,600 Roush run just 74% and no, no, no, that's it. 1630 01:42:26,600 --> 01:42:28,920 That's it 74% for the full season. 1631 01:42:28,920 --> 01:42:36,920 Last week he was at 59% and then just a 5% target for a run like 1632 01:42:36,920 --> 01:42:40,440 that's like that's honestly highly concerning, Highly 1633 01:42:40,440 --> 01:42:44,240 concerning. It's, I mean, last week, part of 1634 01:42:44,240 --> 01:42:47,680 it is just they were, they could do whatever they wanted last 1635 01:42:47,680 --> 01:42:49,640 last week was a playground for them, right? 1636 01:42:49,640 --> 01:42:50,600 They're just. Yeah. 1637 01:42:51,160 --> 01:42:53,920 Shit out of the Cowboys, but it's not like that was an 1638 01:42:53,960 --> 01:42:57,720 outlier for Sam LaPorte, you know, like he he wasn't getting 1639 01:42:57,720 --> 01:43:01,240 targets before that. So I mean. 1640 01:43:01,360 --> 01:43:04,360 Right. And it's not just it's so 74% 1641 01:43:04,360 --> 01:43:07,080 and I think if you're projecting it the rest of the way, you 1642 01:43:07,080 --> 01:43:10,240 probably do bump that up to 80% when you account for the 1643 01:43:10,240 --> 01:43:14,240 injuries he's had. But 11% targets per per route 1644 01:43:14,240 --> 01:43:21,880 run like that, and just 6.1 A dot like that, that is like 1645 01:43:22,640 --> 01:43:25,240 highly, highly concerning, highly concerning. 1646 01:43:25,640 --> 01:43:28,280 Yeah, and I mean, we, we talked about this on a previous show, 1647 01:43:28,280 --> 01:43:31,320 but I, I really do think a big part of it is the emergence of 1648 01:43:31,320 --> 01:43:35,320 Jameson Williams and that he's just eating into the pie of this 1649 01:43:35,320 --> 01:43:36,320 offense. And so. 1650 01:43:38,200 --> 01:43:40,560 All right, let's move to the back of tight end chart. 1651 01:43:40,560 --> 01:43:44,280 There's just one other guy. We've got a shout out here. 1652 01:43:44,520 --> 01:43:46,000 He's at the very top of the chart. 1653 01:43:46,000 --> 01:43:52,440 It's David and Joku comically low 2.2 A .20% targets per route 1654 01:43:52,440 --> 01:43:55,280 run. Amari Cooper has left, so 1655 01:43:55,280 --> 01:43:57,200 there's a bunch of vacated targets there. 1656 01:43:57,920 --> 01:44:02,880 I mean, the two point 2A dot is almost like there's, there's 1657 01:44:02,880 --> 01:44:05,920 very few circumstances where I'd say, Oh yeah, that's actually a 1658 01:44:05,920 --> 01:44:08,240 good thing. But in this circumstance where 1659 01:44:08,240 --> 01:44:11,320 his quarterback can't complete a pass more than 5 yards down the 1660 01:44:11,320 --> 01:44:15,240 field, 2.2 A dot means that you can at least count on the 1661 01:44:15,240 --> 01:44:18,640 targets David and Joku is receiving to be catchable balls. 1662 01:44:18,640 --> 01:44:21,680 Otherwise they're just, you know, they're entirely unuseful. 1663 01:44:21,680 --> 01:44:27,080 So David and Joku seems like he is due for a little bump here. 1664 01:44:28,040 --> 01:44:32,640 I I expect him to be the primary pass catcher for this offense 1665 01:44:33,640 --> 01:44:37,720 here without Omari Cooper. It'll if there's a quarterback 1666 01:44:37,720 --> 01:44:42,760 change, that could certainly shake things up, But the Browns 1667 01:44:42,760 --> 01:44:46,800 have not signaled anything that makes us think that they'll be 1668 01:44:46,800 --> 01:44:49,120 changing quarterbacks, even though they should. 1669 01:44:50,840 --> 01:44:52,760 Right, right. If anything, the opposite. 1670 01:44:53,280 --> 01:44:55,840 And yeah, a change in quarterback would actually 1671 01:44:55,840 --> 01:45:00,200 probably be helpful because then the quality of targets, even 1672 01:45:00,280 --> 01:45:03,520 even if the quantity of targets went down, the quality would go 1673 01:45:03,520 --> 01:45:08,440 up. And but totally makes sense 1674 01:45:08,440 --> 01:45:13,120 where it's a garbage offense and and now when targets just have 1675 01:45:13,120 --> 01:45:15,760 to be funneled through this guy and he's just going to be 1676 01:45:15,760 --> 01:45:19,440 spammed like you have to worry about kind of the re injury 1677 01:45:19,440 --> 01:45:25,480 risk. But he he does look pretty 1678 01:45:25,480 --> 01:45:28,240 interesting as a as a week to week play. 1679 01:45:29,600 --> 01:45:32,520 Yeah. All right, let's move on to 1680 01:45:32,520 --> 01:45:36,440 receiver here. Oh, I'll give a give a quick 1681 01:45:36,440 --> 01:45:38,920 shout to Jatavion Sanders. We talked about him on the last 1682 01:45:38,920 --> 01:45:42,880 show. He turned in a pretty good day, 1683 01:45:43,080 --> 01:45:45,200 earned a lot of targets, ran a lot of routes. 1684 01:45:45,600 --> 01:45:49,320 He's definitely an interesting player like him as a prospect 1685 01:45:49,840 --> 01:45:54,360 managed to earn volume with good target competition and good, you 1686 01:45:54,360 --> 01:45:57,600 know, NFL caliber players around him in college. 1687 01:45:57,600 --> 01:46:02,480 So he's he's one to to leave a light on forge Tavion Sanders 1688 01:46:02,760 --> 01:46:07,040 kind of interesting. It's gonna, it remains to be 1689 01:46:07,040 --> 01:46:09,960 seen if he could actually usurp Tommy Trumbull when Trumbull is 1690 01:46:09,960 --> 01:46:13,800 healthy. But he certainly, I, I think 1691 01:46:13,800 --> 01:46:18,560 last week was the first step he would need to take to to earning 1692 01:46:19,040 --> 01:46:20,920 that role. I think it's still an uphill 1693 01:46:20,920 --> 01:46:24,320 battle for him, you know, as a rookie to, to be the tight and 1694 01:46:24,320 --> 01:46:27,120 one on the team. But last week was the first 1695 01:46:27,120 --> 01:46:29,960 thing you would see if it was a guy coming for that job. 1696 01:46:30,000 --> 01:46:35,000 So. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 1697 01:46:35,000 --> 01:46:40,480 Makes sense for sure. Where you had, let me see, 73% 1698 01:46:40,480 --> 01:46:44,160 route run last week, 24% targets per out run. 1699 01:46:44,160 --> 01:46:48,160 So that's that's pretty positive, pretty positive. 1700 01:46:50,040 --> 01:46:54,960 And then so returning to the receiver chart, we have just 1701 01:46:54,960 --> 01:46:58,560 beside new A.J. Brown, we have old A.J. 1702 01:46:58,560 --> 01:47:01,440 Brown. No surprise. 1703 01:47:03,920 --> 01:47:08,760 Yeah, Malik Neighbors, A new, A new challenger approaches Malik 1704 01:47:08,760 --> 01:47:13,280 Neighbors in the top right corner of the the weighted 1705 01:47:13,280 --> 01:47:15,960 targets per route run and fantasy points per game chart. 1706 01:47:16,360 --> 01:47:19,400 So this is a fun one. They play each other this week. 1707 01:47:19,600 --> 01:47:25,720 I think it's pretty interesting. I mean, I, I really, I don't 1708 01:47:25,720 --> 01:47:27,800 think there's anything more to say other than A.J. 1709 01:47:27,800 --> 01:47:31,920 Brown is a very good receiver. Now this is on a much smaller 1710 01:47:31,920 --> 01:47:34,360 sample than Malik Neighbors 'cause he missed a bunch of 1711 01:47:34,360 --> 01:47:37,280 time. That being said, if all you do 1712 01:47:37,280 --> 01:47:40,320 is go out there and score fantasy points and earn targets 1713 01:47:40,360 --> 01:47:43,120 the games that you play, you know, I don't think we can say 1714 01:47:43,120 --> 01:47:45,400 anything negative about A.J. Brown. 1715 01:47:45,560 --> 01:47:49,160 He definitely, you know, entirely unsurprised to see him 1716 01:47:49,160 --> 01:47:55,920 in this top right quadrant. A guy that I I liked a lot here 1717 01:47:56,160 --> 01:48:00,880 for a potential regression spot is DK Metcalf getting a ton of 1718 01:48:00,880 --> 01:48:06,680 targets you can see on the chart for guys that have as high a 1719 01:48:06,680 --> 01:48:08,680 weighted targets per route run as he does. 1720 01:48:09,160 --> 01:48:13,920 He's got one of the lowest fantasy point per game out of 1721 01:48:13,960 --> 01:48:16,320 all of them. I think it's a pretty 1722 01:48:16,440 --> 01:48:18,200 interesting Russian spot for him here. 1723 01:48:19,520 --> 01:48:23,440 The Falcons. What are what are your thoughts 1724 01:48:23,440 --> 01:48:25,280 here on that cap in this matchup? 1725 01:48:26,760 --> 01:48:30,800 So who do they play? Who do the Seahawks play again? 1726 01:48:30,800 --> 01:48:32,600 I shouldn't. I should definitely know they 1727 01:48:32,600 --> 01:48:39,360 play the Falcons and yeah, so Metcalf, I mean, Metcalf is 1728 01:48:39,360 --> 01:48:43,680 always going to be interesting in in a GPP and just because he 1729 01:48:43,800 --> 01:48:46,560 he's always going to be that like or say he always has been 1730 01:48:46,560 --> 01:48:50,840 that kind of profile player where he gets targets deep down 1731 01:48:50,840 --> 01:48:52,520 the field. He has the high A dot. 1732 01:48:53,120 --> 01:48:55,880 And then let me have a look here on his touchdown stuff. 1733 01:48:56,400 --> 01:49:01,360 So on the year and actually on the year, so he's kind of 1734 01:49:01,480 --> 01:49:06,280 running neutral on touchdowns and touchdown efficiency. 1735 01:49:07,560 --> 01:49:13,000 And which is kind of interesting because if we look at this chart 1736 01:49:13,000 --> 01:49:20,680 here, yeah, he so he's at like the 15 and 15 around 15 fantasy 1737 01:49:20,680 --> 01:49:26,200 points per game and hasn't done anything crazy on the on the 1738 01:49:26,200 --> 01:49:32,160 touchdown front. Yeah, I am. 1739 01:49:32,920 --> 01:49:36,560 I guess I don't have any anything special to say about 1740 01:49:36,560 --> 01:49:40,080 him other than like he's always he's always an interesting GPP 1741 01:49:40,080 --> 01:49:42,760 play. Like I don't sorry, I don't have 1742 01:49:42,760 --> 01:49:45,080 more to no, no. That's OK. 1743 01:49:46,080 --> 01:49:49,880 The other guy I liked and we talked about this match up 1744 01:49:49,880 --> 01:49:55,080 earlier for the 49ers and the Chiefs, but Brandon Iuke also 1745 01:49:55,080 --> 01:49:58,880 looking like a pretty good regression candidate here, has 1746 01:49:58,880 --> 01:50:02,200 only had the one big game early in the season. 1747 01:50:02,520 --> 01:50:06,240 You know, he's I mean, even this last week, he just wasn't 1748 01:50:06,240 --> 01:50:11,000 getting very many targets in the the earlier weeks. 1749 01:50:11,000 --> 01:50:13,360 I think you could attribute that to him missing training camp, 1750 01:50:13,360 --> 01:50:16,840 kind of having a slow start there this last week. 1751 01:50:16,840 --> 01:50:19,640 I mean, you're still seeing Jawan Jennings out there like 1752 01:50:20,000 --> 01:50:22,880 earning volume 2. So that's it's a little 1753 01:50:22,880 --> 01:50:25,400 troubling. It's taking an already spread 1754 01:50:25,400 --> 01:50:29,280 out offense and spreading it out even more in the passing game. 1755 01:50:29,280 --> 01:50:31,800 I guess really what you're doing is you're taking the Christian 1756 01:50:31,800 --> 01:50:35,600 McCaffrey receiving game that the other running backs aren't 1757 01:50:35,600 --> 01:50:38,400 providing and it's just going to the receivers now. 1758 01:50:38,400 --> 01:50:42,680 But we would we would have hoped that that would consolidate on 1759 01:50:42,680 --> 01:50:45,920 Kittle and Debo and IU, but instead it's just going to 1760 01:50:45,920 --> 01:50:50,160 Jennings. And so that's been a little, you 1761 01:50:50,160 --> 01:50:54,000 know, a little bit tricky, but I do kind of think Iuke is in a, 1762 01:50:54,160 --> 01:50:58,440 an interesting spot here. I think that if if this game 1763 01:50:58,440 --> 01:51:04,360 goes off, I I just kind of it feels like an Iuke spot to me 1764 01:51:04,360 --> 01:51:06,920 with the matchup. Yeah, that makes sense. 1765 01:51:07,400 --> 01:51:13,320 So if I look on him, Iuke, he's actually 2 touchdowns under 1766 01:51:13,320 --> 01:51:18,200 expected on the year. So you, you pair, I guess that 1767 01:51:18,200 --> 01:51:21,600 that goes along with the the off the passing offense in general 1768 01:51:21,600 --> 01:51:23,600 being underexpected on touchdowns. 1769 01:51:24,360 --> 01:51:28,760 But yeah, he he, he certainly strikes me as a as a fine 1770 01:51:28,960 --> 01:51:35,040 regression candidate. I I saw him go at pick 57 in a 1771 01:51:35,040 --> 01:51:38,760 dog bowl this week. Yeah, I am. 1772 01:51:38,760 --> 01:51:43,680 That was probably the the kind of low watermark and but still 1773 01:51:43,960 --> 01:51:49,440 player of his caliber in in in I mean, definitely a game that 1774 01:51:49,440 --> 01:51:52,640 could that could and any of these games could go out, but 1775 01:51:52,640 --> 01:51:54,200 definitely a high-powered offense. 1776 01:51:54,920 --> 01:51:58,640 Yeah, that, that could easily pay off like very decisively in 1777 01:51:58,640 --> 01:52:02,040 your favor. Yeah, seems seems pretty absurd 1778 01:52:02,760 --> 01:52:08,480 for him to go that late. Let's see the other guy I had 1779 01:52:08,480 --> 01:52:14,160 notes on. OK, so Drake London, I think it 1780 01:52:14,480 --> 01:52:17,440 it might have been a couple weeks ago where I said something 1781 01:52:17,440 --> 01:52:19,720 to the effect of Drake London and Darnell Moody. 1782 01:52:20,160 --> 01:52:22,680 We're too close to each other on the chart for me to really 1783 01:52:22,680 --> 01:52:25,120 consider. Drake London is like a 1784 01:52:25,120 --> 01:52:28,200 substantial difference to Darnell Moody. 1785 01:52:28,680 --> 01:52:32,720 And now I need to retract that statement because Drake London 1786 01:52:32,720 --> 01:52:36,520 is separating as the most talented receiver on the team. 1787 01:52:37,560 --> 01:52:39,680 Definitely more fun for it to be that way. 1788 01:52:39,680 --> 01:52:42,560 Like I don't think anyone really enjoyed the Darnell Mooney, Ray 1789 01:52:42,560 --> 01:52:45,200 Ray McLeod stuff that we are getting. 1790 01:52:45,520 --> 01:52:48,520 It's really fun when Drake London is dominating the targets 1791 01:52:48,520 --> 01:52:51,840 like this. He he looks like he is. 1792 01:52:53,560 --> 01:52:57,880 I mean, from from these last couple weeks, Drake London looks 1793 01:52:57,880 --> 01:53:03,040 like he is on pace to comfortably pay off his tag of 1794 01:53:03,040 --> 01:53:05,920 where he was going in basketball drafts when I think earlier in 1795 01:53:05,920 --> 01:53:07,920 the season people were pretty worried about him. 1796 01:53:08,640 --> 01:53:14,320 What do you think, Draco? So looking at the stats, you got 1797 01:53:14,320 --> 01:53:19,320 a pretty healthy 26% targets per run on Drake London on the year. 1798 01:53:19,960 --> 01:53:24,720 And then when you equate that to what I've got is the A dot here, 1799 01:53:25,240 --> 01:53:30,160 you you would combine that with a 2.1 yard yards per run and 9.8 1800 01:53:30,320 --> 01:53:33,680 A dot. Like the A dot is a little bit 1801 01:53:33,680 --> 01:53:37,520 low, but 26% target rate run pretty healthy there. 1802 01:53:38,040 --> 01:53:42,520 And you have them in the you still have them in the hot. 1803 01:53:42,560 --> 01:53:48,160 Like even with with the kind of more moderate A dot you've you 1804 01:53:48,160 --> 01:53:53,040 still, yeah, you still haven't in the pretty healthy way the 1805 01:53:53,040 --> 01:53:58,880 target sprout run that I mean that that he seems pretty good, 1806 01:53:59,400 --> 01:54:00,880 seems pretty good. Like you're getting you're 1807 01:54:00,880 --> 01:54:03,440 definitely getting a really strong season from Drake London 1808 01:54:03,440 --> 01:54:06,560 here. And you have to be you have to 1809 01:54:06,560 --> 01:54:08,960 be happy with what you're getting here. 1810 01:54:09,640 --> 01:54:12,920 And I know there was, like you said last week, there was some 1811 01:54:12,920 --> 01:54:16,240 concern over whether he really was like one of the best 1812 01:54:16,240 --> 01:54:19,320 receivers in the NFL. But I, I, I think that's 1813 01:54:19,320 --> 01:54:23,120 starting to play out. I guess the one thing I'd note. 1814 01:54:23,640 --> 01:54:27,920 And so Darnell Mooney still at 20% target spread run. 1815 01:54:28,680 --> 01:54:33,080 And so like you're still getting a good, there's that's still a 1816 01:54:33,080 --> 01:54:36,320 good start for Darnell Mooney and, and would prefer to look at 1817 01:54:36,320 --> 01:54:38,920 it over like that kind of like longer time horizon. 1818 01:54:38,920 --> 01:54:46,480 And I know this chart is too and but it's good to see that it's 1819 01:54:46,480 --> 01:54:51,440 not like A1A1B thing here that they are starting to separate. 1820 01:54:52,200 --> 01:54:55,240 Yeah, yeah, absolutely. All right. 1821 01:54:55,280 --> 01:54:57,640 Those are all my notes for this chart. 1822 01:54:57,640 --> 01:55:00,160 We can go ahead and move on to the next one. 1823 01:55:04,360 --> 01:55:08,840 And so these are the guys where they're 70 to 85% richer. 1824 01:55:10,480 --> 01:55:14,080 This one, the first guy that sticks out to me is Josh Downs, 1825 01:55:14,080 --> 01:55:18,520 who looks like he's, he's the wide receiver one on the Colts 1826 01:55:19,320 --> 01:55:22,040 by my assessment. He just looks, he looks like the 1827 01:55:22,040 --> 01:55:25,000 better player on the field. I know Pittman's dealing with 1828 01:55:25,000 --> 01:55:29,520 the back injury and also the offense just looks so different 1829 01:55:29,600 --> 01:55:32,160 under Joe Flacco than what it's going to look like with Anthony 1830 01:55:32,160 --> 01:55:35,200 Richardson. But Josh Downs just looks like 1831 01:55:35,280 --> 01:55:41,400 the better receiver and and I know that all offseason that was 1832 01:55:41,400 --> 01:55:43,960 something Pat was really pounding the table for when 1833 01:55:43,960 --> 01:55:47,520 whenever we had our rankings calls, he Pat was not shy about 1834 01:55:47,520 --> 01:55:51,120 telling us that even though we had Michael Pittman, you know, 1835 01:55:51,120 --> 01:55:55,280 ranked almost a, you know, two rounds past the ADP, Pat thought 1836 01:55:55,320 --> 01:56:00,040 he should be even later because he didn't see much of A talent 1837 01:56:00,040 --> 01:56:01,720 difference between him and Josh Downs. 1838 01:56:01,720 --> 01:56:05,280 And that's looking like it's it's coming to fruition here. 1839 01:56:05,280 --> 01:56:08,720 So Josh Downs is a really interesting player though, 1840 01:56:08,720 --> 01:56:13,160 because I don't know how useful he's going to be with Richardson 1841 01:56:13,160 --> 01:56:16,480 as the quarterback. Now, Downs and Richardson did 1842 01:56:16,480 --> 01:56:19,600 have a pretty good connection, but we we haven't gotten to see 1843 01:56:19,600 --> 01:56:22,440 them play together for very many games. 1844 01:56:22,440 --> 01:56:26,360 So it's interesting to me. I I'm curious, So what do you 1845 01:56:26,360 --> 01:56:29,480 think on on Downs Trico? Is he someone where we should 1846 01:56:29,480 --> 01:56:32,920 expect this production to decrease with Richardson taking 1847 01:56:32,920 --> 01:56:35,720 back over? Yeah. 1848 01:56:35,720 --> 01:56:38,920 So with Richardson taking over, you get less pass attempts per 1849 01:56:38,920 --> 01:56:41,680 drop back. So even even with drop back 1850 01:56:41,680 --> 01:56:45,720 staying the same, there's going to be lost pass attempts and you 1851 01:56:45,720 --> 01:56:50,160 got a lower completion percentage and you do get deeper 1852 01:56:50,160 --> 01:56:53,680 passes. And I suppose that that is the 1853 01:56:53,680 --> 01:56:56,480 concern with Josh Downs. He's this kind of smaller slot 1854 01:56:56,480 --> 01:57:02,040 receiver type that does mesh really well with Flacco and much 1855 01:57:02,040 --> 01:57:06,600 better than Anthony Richardson. But, you know, maybe, yeah, 1856 01:57:06,600 --> 01:57:10,320 maybe somebody like Josh Downs is kind of like suitable to 1857 01:57:10,320 --> 01:57:14,160 Anthony Richardson too, where he can kind of get like a reliable 1858 01:57:14,960 --> 01:57:18,840 receiver that he knows is going to be open short. 1859 01:57:19,440 --> 01:57:21,800 And. And so maybe it's not as 1860 01:57:21,800 --> 01:57:28,600 efficient as as Flacco, but he's clearly a very good player. 1861 01:57:28,600 --> 01:57:35,360 He's a very strong, like strong real life reality player and his 1862 01:57:35,360 --> 01:57:37,080 team has to find a way to use that. 1863 01:57:37,400 --> 01:57:39,840 So I, I, I don't think it's going to crater or anything like 1864 01:57:39,840 --> 01:57:42,960 that. And but I, I, I do agree with 1865 01:57:42,960 --> 01:57:49,000 you that and with Richardson back that that, that that does 1866 01:57:49,000 --> 01:57:54,920 become a concern. Yeah, the the one guy I want to 1867 01:57:54,920 --> 01:58:00,560 point out, so Josh Downs played in college with Drake May as his 1868 01:58:00,560 --> 01:58:03,280 quarterback. And Drake May has has gushed 1869 01:58:03,280 --> 01:58:06,440 about how, you know how fantastic Josh Downs was? 1870 01:58:07,240 --> 01:58:09,240 You know, he was his favorite target in college. 1871 01:58:10,360 --> 01:58:13,840 The guy who is now catching passes for Drake May and 1872 01:58:13,840 --> 01:58:17,440 operating in that same way that Josh Downs did is Demario 1873 01:58:17,440 --> 01:58:20,840 Douglas, who has a really good game, puts together a really 1874 01:58:20,840 --> 01:58:23,840 good run after the catch where May hits him in stride across 1875 01:58:23,840 --> 01:58:25,760 the middle of the field in the splash zone. 1876 01:58:26,080 --> 01:58:29,480 Like beautifully executed play by both May and Douglas. 1877 01:58:29,800 --> 01:58:33,920 And it looks like Douglas might be the one to come out of this 1878 01:58:34,280 --> 01:58:37,400 with the largest boost, the most to gain from the quarterback 1879 01:58:37,400 --> 01:58:41,320 switch for the Patriots. So I think this is a kind of 1880 01:58:41,320 --> 01:58:44,760 interesting question. Josh Downs versus Demario 1881 01:58:44,760 --> 01:58:48,360 Douglas, who we can just call Drake Mays, new Josh Downs. 1882 01:58:48,480 --> 01:58:52,160 Oh my God, Who do you like better rest of season? 1883 01:58:52,200 --> 01:58:55,840 Do you like real Josh Downs or do you like new Josh Downs? 1884 01:58:56,400 --> 01:58:58,760 It's it has to be Demario Douglas. 1885 01:58:58,760 --> 01:59:03,800 When you factor in like, like if with the same quarterback, you 1886 01:59:03,800 --> 01:59:09,560 have to prefer Josh Downs, but Drake may like Anthony 1887 01:59:09,560 --> 01:59:13,680 Richardson is such a negative to have a quarterback like he is 1888 01:59:13,680 --> 01:59:18,280 such a negative point to your fantasy production that you do 1889 01:59:18,920 --> 01:59:21,600 like you have to you have to prefer the guy playing with 1890 01:59:21,600 --> 01:59:24,640 Drake May like, I don't see how you can think about it any other 1891 01:59:24,640 --> 01:59:28,440 way. Yeah, I I definitely agree. 1892 01:59:30,480 --> 01:59:34,800 OK, one other guy I had on this chart that I thought was pretty 1893 01:59:34,800 --> 01:59:37,960 interesting for this week is Jordan Addison. 1894 01:59:38,720 --> 01:59:42,000 I mean, he, he missed the early parts of the season with an 1895 01:59:42,000 --> 01:59:45,760 injury, but you get him off the by here. 1896 01:59:45,760 --> 01:59:49,280 He's I, I think it's safe to assume he's fully healthy now. 1897 01:59:50,800 --> 01:59:54,480 I mean, this just this kind of feels like a pretty fun spot for 1898 01:59:54,480 --> 01:59:57,840 Addison. You know, I, I haven't, haven't 1899 01:59:57,840 --> 02:00:00,120 looked at the game total yet. I would assume this is one of 1900 02:00:00,120 --> 02:00:04,200 the higher totals. This just seems like a really 1901 02:00:04,200 --> 02:00:07,800 good spot for Addison. You know, and he's, he's coming 1902 02:00:07,800 --> 02:00:12,320 in in a part of the chart. Yeah, goddamn it. 1903 02:00:16,400 --> 02:00:18,160 Yeah, Well, well, long, long and short of it. 1904 02:00:18,160 --> 02:00:21,360 I like the spot for Addison. He's in a really favorable part 1905 02:00:21,360 --> 02:00:24,160 of the chart. He's got lots of good company 1906 02:00:24,160 --> 02:00:27,320 around him, guys like Deonte Johnson, Brian Thomas, Junior, 1907 02:00:27,320 --> 02:00:32,280 Mike Evans, CD Lamb. So I, I think this is a pretty 1908 02:00:32,280 --> 02:00:39,840 good spot for Addison. I will. 1909 02:00:39,840 --> 02:00:41,320 I'll go ahead and move on to the next guy. 1910 02:00:41,320 --> 02:00:43,760 I don't know if you can hear me now. 1911 02:00:45,840 --> 02:00:52,320 Jalen Polk was another one. I had a note on here slightly 1912 02:00:52,320 --> 02:00:57,040 concerned he's dead because he's just, he's looked pretty bad at 1913 02:00:57,040 --> 02:01:00,040 all the advanced metrics. He's had a a lot of drop issues 1914 02:01:00,040 --> 02:01:03,000 too, which that's, that's not great. 1915 02:01:04,560 --> 02:01:13,680 I, I was going to ask you if you think, if you think that Hulk is 1916 02:01:13,680 --> 02:01:19,400 dead and buried or if we need to give it more time with may. 1917 02:01:20,960 --> 02:01:23,720 I know you're having some technical difficulties here. 1918 02:01:24,120 --> 02:01:29,280 My, my read on the situation is it's not looking great for Jalen 1919 02:01:29,280 --> 02:01:31,360 Polk. If I were adjusting my prior, 1920 02:01:31,360 --> 02:01:33,200 I'm definitely adjusting it down. 1921 02:01:34,840 --> 02:01:37,960 But I I do think that it's probably something where we 1922 02:01:37,960 --> 02:01:41,440 don't want to be too hasty to just bury this rookie wide 1923 02:01:41,440 --> 02:01:44,040 receiver who's supposed to be pretty talented, played with two 1924 02:01:44,040 --> 02:01:47,800 other NFL caliber receivers. I'm back. 1925 02:01:48,280 --> 02:01:52,160 OK. But yeah, Jalen Polk, is he dead 1926 02:01:52,160 --> 02:01:54,200 and buried or do we need to give it more time with May? 1927 02:01:59,440 --> 02:02:04,200 Is Jalen Polk dead and buried? So let me look at the let me 1928 02:02:04,480 --> 02:02:09,680 look at the Patriots snap stuff from last week. 1929 02:02:12,640 --> 02:02:20,640 So Jalen Polk down to a 69% route share last week. 1930 02:02:21,960 --> 02:02:24,720 So I doubt that to me would suggest so. 1931 02:02:24,720 --> 02:02:33,680 And that's, that's down from 97% the week before and 87% the week 1932 02:02:33,680 --> 02:02:41,960 before that. That would kind of suggest to 1933 02:02:41,960 --> 02:02:44,200 me. So at 70%, even though the coach 1934 02:02:44,200 --> 02:02:46,960 is kind of burying him, that would kind of suggest that the 1935 02:02:46,960 --> 02:02:49,520 coach still the, the team still sees him as important. 1936 02:02:49,520 --> 02:02:55,080 He's going to play, but he has to play better. 1937 02:02:56,160 --> 02:03:02,000 And I, I, I like with a rookie, you don't want to bury them 1938 02:03:02,000 --> 02:03:04,440 straight away because they have lots of time to kind of figure 1939 02:03:04,440 --> 02:03:10,120 it out. But I think the leash has to be 1940 02:03:10,120 --> 02:03:13,160 pretty short. If you're seeing Drake may come 1941 02:03:13,200 --> 02:03:15,600 in and kind of like elevate the offense. 1942 02:03:15,680 --> 02:03:19,120 Other guys are getting there and then poke is still in the cold 1943 02:03:19,880 --> 02:03:23,400 then and you. No excuses left. 1944 02:03:24,600 --> 02:03:29,920 Yeah, yeah, I think, I think I'm probably, again, like you said, 1945 02:03:29,920 --> 02:03:31,400 you don't want to bury him too fast. 1946 02:03:31,400 --> 02:03:35,960 But after this, this Jags game where they get a really good 1947 02:03:35,960 --> 02:03:40,080 match up, I I sure hope to see something from him. 1948 02:03:40,160 --> 02:03:42,720 Otherwise my Polk basketball bags will be very sad. 1949 02:03:44,240 --> 02:03:45,920 Yeah. We'll, we'll, we'll be sad if, 1950 02:03:47,000 --> 02:03:48,960 if it doesn't get there, but that's, that's the risk. 1951 02:03:48,960 --> 02:03:53,960 You run rookies right? Yes, the charts are not up on 1952 02:03:53,960 --> 02:03:56,760 the screen, by the way, when you came back in, I think they came 1953 02:03:56,760 --> 02:03:58,520 down. If you're able to share those. 1954 02:03:59,800 --> 02:04:02,760 Our last one, there's one guy I had on this one and then we can 1955 02:04:02,760 --> 02:04:06,680 go to the final chart. George Pickens sitting here with 1956 02:04:06,680 --> 02:04:10,440 an absurd weighted targets per route run granted is in a very 1957 02:04:10,440 --> 02:04:13,320 low volume offense, which we talked about this with the, you 1958 02:04:13,320 --> 02:04:16,280 know, in the context of the Bills and why Dalton Kincaid, 1959 02:04:16,280 --> 02:04:18,840 although his role in other offenses would probably be 1960 02:04:18,840 --> 02:04:23,480 pretty favorable in a really low pass volume offense, it's just 1961 02:04:23,480 --> 02:04:27,240 not enough. George Pickens kind of in a 1962 02:04:27,240 --> 02:04:31,200 similar situation. The difference between Pickens 1963 02:04:31,200 --> 02:04:34,000 and Kincaid in my mind though, is that I think George Pickens 1964 02:04:34,000 --> 02:04:38,000 is a really talented player. I think Kincaid is probably like 1965 02:04:38,040 --> 02:04:42,840 better than bad, but not great. I think Pickens could like 1966 02:04:42,840 --> 02:04:45,960 legitimately be great in the right circumstances. 1967 02:04:46,760 --> 02:04:51,520 I just don't know, like for me, I, I struggle with with guys 1968 02:04:51,520 --> 02:04:55,400 like this because it's like, man, he, he can very clearly 1969 02:04:55,400 --> 02:04:58,760 with this opportunity, like if they just get into a game where 1970 02:04:58,760 --> 02:05:01,840 they're trailing and the game just plays out right. 1971 02:05:01,880 --> 02:05:06,840 Like he has absolutely nuclear weeks in his range, right? 1972 02:05:07,320 --> 02:05:11,480 But most of the weeks, you're just probably, yeah, like, 1973 02:05:11,680 --> 02:05:14,480 that's a quick way to sync an otherwise good lineup if you're 1974 02:05:14,480 --> 02:05:17,800 playing George Pickens. So is this the kind of guy where 1975 02:05:17,960 --> 02:05:20,640 should we just be playing George Pickens every week? 1976 02:05:20,640 --> 02:05:23,520 Like, do we pay the George Pickens tax for when it 1977 02:05:23,520 --> 02:05:25,240 eventually gets there? What do you think? 1978 02:05:26,640 --> 02:05:30,520 So a lot of this Utris stuff doesn't seem too bad. 1979 02:05:30,520 --> 02:05:33,120 It definitely seems more encouraging than Kincaid. 1980 02:05:33,760 --> 02:05:37,880 So you do get it. You do get Turkey tree drop box 1981 02:05:37,880 --> 02:05:44,200 for the team last week and you're on an average of 32 point 1982 02:05:44,200 --> 02:05:51,200 2.7 for the year. And there was a lot of noise 1983 02:05:51,200 --> 02:05:55,560 about his route share in week 5 or snap share. 1984 02:05:55,560 --> 02:05:57,720 I think his snap share was something like in in the high 1985 02:05:57,720 --> 02:06:00,600 50s. His route share was 65%. 1986 02:06:01,400 --> 02:06:05,600 If you look at the route share for the full year and I think 1987 02:06:05,600 --> 02:06:07,600 that's how we we kind of show him in this range. 1988 02:06:07,600 --> 02:06:15,200 He's at 81% and then his target sprout run is in the high 20s. 1989 02:06:16,080 --> 02:06:22,320 So I think that's pretty good at underlying metrics and, and a 1990 02:06:22,320 --> 02:06:25,440 lot of that kind of suggests like a very good player, which 1991 02:06:25,440 --> 02:06:30,200 is kind of what you're saying. And, and you've definitely 1992 02:06:30,200 --> 02:06:34,880 gotten some like the, the, the other piece of it is, is that 1993 02:06:34,880 --> 02:06:37,560 his area yards. So you had 120 area yards in 1994 02:06:37,560 --> 02:06:42,360 week six, 152 in Week 4. So like there's definitely games 1995 02:06:42,360 --> 02:06:46,960 there where the area yards is enough to produce like a strong 1996 02:06:46,960 --> 02:06:52,360 fantasy performance. You are going to get a lot of 1997 02:06:52,360 --> 02:06:55,120 volatility here though, because of the yeah, because of the 1998 02:06:55,120 --> 02:06:59,440 nature of the offense. And I don't know if I'm going to 1999 02:06:59,440 --> 02:07:04,000 pay a tax for this, but this seems like very, this upside 2000 02:07:04,000 --> 02:07:08,920 seems very tangible like, whereas Kincaid, like you're the 2001 02:07:08,920 --> 02:07:12,760 Kincaid upside is a prayer, whereas this is, this is true 2002 02:07:12,760 --> 02:07:16,240 real upside. It just it's going to be 2003 02:07:16,240 --> 02:07:18,400 volatile week to week. It's how I read it. 2004 02:07:19,320 --> 02:07:22,480 Yeah, I think, I think that is perfectly put, right. 2005 02:07:22,760 --> 02:07:24,160 Couldn't, couldn't set it better. 2006 02:07:25,800 --> 02:07:32,320 All right, let's hit the last chart and we're going to get to 2007 02:07:32,320 --> 02:07:37,080 talk about your favorite player here, Draco, and that is Troy 2008 02:07:37,080 --> 02:07:40,640 Franklin. So Troy Franklin kind of poppin 2009 02:07:40,640 --> 02:07:42,960 in his weighted targets per route run. 2010 02:07:44,120 --> 02:07:46,560 Is that Troy Franklin's music I hear? 2011 02:07:47,680 --> 02:07:49,800 I think, I think we're getting Troy Franklin music. 2012 02:07:49,840 --> 02:07:53,760 I don't know if I don't know if I remembered to say this in in 2013 02:07:53,760 --> 02:08:01,920 the last show and I kind of set it in the Discord, but his even 2014 02:08:01,920 --> 02:08:05,760 on the low route stuff, his underlying usage has actually 2015 02:08:05,760 --> 02:08:11,400 been pretty good. And the only thing so here's 2016 02:08:11,400 --> 02:08:14,880 here's the so I've got good news and bad news about week 6. 2017 02:08:15,480 --> 02:08:19,760 So good news about week 6 is that he was up to a 68% route 2018 02:08:19,760 --> 02:08:23,880 share. Bad news is that that came with 2019 02:08:23,880 --> 02:08:30,160 a drop off to 11% target run and in prior weeks he'd been at 2020 02:08:30,160 --> 02:08:36,160 424429 percent. And so it, it is a bit more 2021 02:08:36,160 --> 02:08:40,400 concerning to see the the per route efficiency so far. 2022 02:08:40,400 --> 02:08:44,760 Like obviously it's it's, it's not going to be at 4244%, but 2023 02:08:44,760 --> 02:08:48,360 it's a little bit concerning to see it drop off to 11%. 2024 02:08:49,440 --> 02:08:55,240 But I think what we've got here is we've got Troy Franklin, a 2025 02:08:55,240 --> 02:08:57,520 starting wide receiver for the Broncos. 2026 02:08:57,800 --> 02:09:00,720 He's played after getting like fucking dog walked all 2027 02:09:00,720 --> 02:09:03,880 offseason. He's played himself into a role 2028 02:09:03,880 --> 02:09:09,320 now. And his his A dot is strong. 2029 02:09:09,320 --> 02:09:11,320 He's getting targets deep down the field. 2030 02:09:12,480 --> 02:09:16,840 So I think, like I think that this makes for a pretty 2031 02:09:16,840 --> 02:09:20,200 worthwhile bench stash, pretty strong bench stash actually. 2032 02:09:21,080 --> 02:09:23,760 Yeah, you, you talked about the good news and bad news. 2033 02:09:24,040 --> 02:09:27,720 I, I hate to do this to you 'cause I also really like Troy 2034 02:09:27,720 --> 02:09:29,480 Franklin and want him to be a thing. 2035 02:09:29,960 --> 02:09:33,720 But I think there is worse news. And the worst news is you can 2036 02:09:33,720 --> 02:09:40,120 track why the, the target share went down so much or the targets 2037 02:09:40,120 --> 02:09:42,120 per route run, excuse me, went down so much. 2038 02:09:42,200 --> 02:09:45,480 And it's because Devon Bailey was active for the first time 2039 02:09:45,480 --> 02:09:48,920 since Week 1. And Devon Bailey, target 2040 02:09:48,920 --> 02:09:53,360 dominator for the Denver Broncos, is out here eating Troy 2041 02:09:53,360 --> 02:09:56,240 Franklin's lunch. Just like in training camp. 2042 02:09:56,280 --> 02:09:59,360 Devon Delay is out here just mossing dudes. 2043 02:10:00,600 --> 02:10:06,280 In all seriousness, I I do think that if you made me rank the 2044 02:10:06,280 --> 02:10:09,360 Broncos receivers who would be the most fantasy relevant for 2045 02:10:09,360 --> 02:10:11,680 the rest of season, it's obviously Cortland Sutton. 2046 02:10:11,680 --> 02:10:15,160 Number one. It's probably Devon Bailey #2 2047 02:10:15,520 --> 02:10:20,520 and then it's Troy Franklin #3 and then I mean, Marvin Mims is 2048 02:10:20,520 --> 02:10:24,480 just keeping the ship chasing curse alive and well because 2049 02:10:24,480 --> 02:10:28,160 Marvin Mims is like, never heard of him, you know? 2050 02:10:28,160 --> 02:10:32,680 Who, Right, right a bit, a bit role player in the offense. 2051 02:10:34,040 --> 02:10:38,560 If you want to talk about the ship chasing curse though, there 2052 02:10:38,560 --> 02:10:43,120 is one force in the world that is stronger than the ship 2053 02:10:43,120 --> 02:10:48,120 chasing curse and it is the Doctor Jesse Morse reverse mush 2054 02:10:48,720 --> 02:10:53,200 of Christian Watson. In case you did not follow this 2055 02:10:53,200 --> 02:10:59,320 on Twitter, Doctor Jesse Morse came out and said something 2056 02:10:59,320 --> 02:11:02,640 where he had diagnosed Christian Watson with a high ankle sprain 2057 02:11:02,640 --> 02:11:06,400 simply from watching the video. And Christian Watson's dad 2058 02:11:07,080 --> 02:11:10,120 replied and let him know that actually you're incorrect. 2059 02:11:10,120 --> 02:11:13,120 The doctors who have diagnosed Christian Watson had taken Mris 2060 02:11:13,120 --> 02:11:16,680 on his ankle and examined him have said no, it's not a high 2061 02:11:16,680 --> 02:11:19,320 ankle sprain and he'll likely be back soon. 2062 02:11:20,600 --> 02:11:24,080 To which Doctor Jesse Morse argued with Christian Watson's 2063 02:11:24,080 --> 02:11:26,800 dad over the diagnosis of the injury. 2064 02:11:26,880 --> 02:11:29,320 A great, great bit. Absolutely fantastic. 2065 02:11:29,480 --> 02:11:32,640 Of course, Christian Watson comes back, puts up a touchdown 2066 02:11:32,640 --> 02:11:36,200 in his first game back. Yeah. 2067 02:11:36,200 --> 02:11:41,400 I mean, I, I, I think this is a interesting, interesting spot 2068 02:11:41,400 --> 02:11:44,280 for Christian Watson. You got the Dobbs injury. 2069 02:11:44,360 --> 02:11:46,000 Excuse me? You got the Wicks injury. 2070 02:11:46,320 --> 02:11:50,520 Jaden Reed also injured. The the Jaden Reed stuff is 2071 02:11:50,520 --> 02:11:53,800 really interesting because he's a guy who plays through, he's 2072 02:11:53,800 --> 02:11:55,680 played through a lot of injury last year. 2073 02:11:56,880 --> 02:11:59,240 Like they basically couldn't keep him off the field. 2074 02:11:59,240 --> 02:12:03,000 If he was at all capable of playing, he would play, but what 2075 02:12:03,000 --> 02:12:07,760 they do when he would play is he was, it really was much more of 2076 02:12:07,760 --> 02:12:10,720 a decoy role. Like his usage was much lower, 2077 02:12:10,720 --> 02:12:14,120 like substantially lower in the games when he was dealing with 2078 02:12:14,120 --> 02:12:17,560 those injuries. He'd also, you know, he'd get 2079 02:12:17,560 --> 02:12:21,440 fewer routes, etcetera. So I, I think it's something to 2080 02:12:21,440 --> 02:12:23,800 watch this week. I mean, if you, if you want me 2081 02:12:23,800 --> 02:12:27,040 to kind of like pull my crystal ball out here, I think what 2082 02:12:27,040 --> 02:12:29,480 we're very likely to see is Jane Reed plays. 2083 02:12:29,840 --> 02:12:33,480 He's much less involved than he would be if he were healthy. 2084 02:12:34,520 --> 02:12:37,200 And I think you see a lot more of it go through, you know, 2085 02:12:37,200 --> 02:12:42,720 Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft, Romeo Dobbs, I think all of 2086 02:12:42,720 --> 02:12:45,640 those guys get a pretty good bump this week. 2087 02:12:46,960 --> 02:12:50,480 And I I Christian Watson is the one I'm pretty interested in. 2088 02:12:52,680 --> 02:12:57,120 That that makes sense. Just that I, I, I just want to, 2089 02:12:57,840 --> 02:12:59,640 I know I'm going back in time here. 2090 02:13:00,200 --> 02:13:05,280 So Troy Franklin had 11% targets per out run at valet only had a 2091 02:13:05,280 --> 02:13:09,800 17%. So it it wasn't, it wasn't 2092 02:13:09,800 --> 02:13:12,920 dramatically off. Yeah, he did. 2093 02:13:13,000 --> 02:13:17,360 He did run more routes though and get and get more raw 2094 02:13:17,360 --> 02:13:19,840 targets. But but yes, they're not in the 2095 02:13:19,840 --> 02:13:22,120 targets per out run. They're not worlds apart. 2096 02:13:24,120 --> 02:13:27,160 You're, you're talking about the difference between 68% red share 2097 02:13:27,160 --> 02:13:30,640 and a 71% like I, I think that's pretty close. 2098 02:13:31,600 --> 02:13:35,400 OK, I, I thought it was farther apart than that, so I am, I'm 2099 02:13:35,400 --> 02:13:38,040 happy to be wrong there. I, I would love to see Troy 2100 02:13:38,040 --> 02:13:40,360 Franklin become a thing. That would be very good for me. 2101 02:13:40,640 --> 02:13:43,640 Right, I, I, I think, I think you you've got a good chance 2102 02:13:43,640 --> 02:13:48,520 that he that he will like I don't think I think that makes 2103 02:13:48,640 --> 02:13:52,040 valet a good bench such too. But I think they're both, 2104 02:13:52,040 --> 02:13:56,280 they're both intriguing. Yeah, we also, I don't have a 2105 02:13:56,280 --> 02:13:58,880 note on this guy, but before we wrap up, we probably should 2106 02:13:58,880 --> 02:14:03,160 shout out bub memes here. Let me let me just hit all I'm 2107 02:14:03,160 --> 02:14:07,400 going to hit all the Saints stuff, bub Memes Mason Tipton 2108 02:14:07,560 --> 02:14:11,080 probably the two that the two receivers that I'd be most 2109 02:14:11,560 --> 02:14:14,800 interested in here as the Saints deal with the Olave and heat 2110 02:14:14,800 --> 02:14:18,640 injuries. So yeah, memes, Tipton, Jawan, 2111 02:14:18,640 --> 02:14:21,720 Johnson, I think all three of those guys are the ones that 2112 02:14:21,720 --> 02:14:24,200 received the largest bump from the injuries. 2113 02:14:25,160 --> 02:14:30,440 Would not be surprised at all if if Taysom Taysom Hill is active 2114 02:14:31,400 --> 02:14:37,680 to see him be a pretty big participant in the offense as 2115 02:14:37,680 --> 02:14:42,680 well, just as they try and find guys that they can give touches 2116 02:14:42,680 --> 02:14:47,000 to. Yeah, yeah, makes sense. 2117 02:14:47,000 --> 02:14:52,360 Makes sense for sure. Was there anyone else on this 2118 02:14:52,360 --> 02:14:56,280 chart that you wanted to shout out, or should we wrap it up 2119 02:14:56,280 --> 02:15:01,000 here? We should probably touch maybe 2120 02:15:01,000 --> 02:15:06,680 we've touched on him enough almost every show, but Liget 2121 02:15:06,680 --> 02:15:09,200 continues to be interesting. He's up. 2122 02:15:09,280 --> 02:15:12,080 I mean, he's up to an 80% targets per out run now. 2123 02:15:12,440 --> 02:15:20,480 So I, I, and I know there's some injuries in that offense, but 2124 02:15:20,560 --> 02:15:22,640 he, he, he's played himself into a role. 2125 02:15:23,040 --> 02:15:25,920 He's in the on, on the full year. 2126 02:15:25,920 --> 02:15:27,920 And the way to target, target threat running is in the like 2127 02:15:27,920 --> 02:15:31,160 50% range. So like that, that seems pretty 2128 02:15:31,160 --> 02:15:33,400 encouraging for a rookie like that. 2129 02:15:33,400 --> 02:15:38,640 Definitely feels like there's a yeah, a breakout story there. 2130 02:15:39,760 --> 02:15:42,480 Would have loved if that breakout story happened last 2131 02:15:42,480 --> 02:15:45,320 week because that would have been a dog bowl seat for me. 2132 02:15:45,520 --> 02:15:52,880 Just couple points short there with Xavier Leget in my my best 2133 02:15:52,880 --> 02:15:54,560 lineup. But that's OK. 2134 02:15:54,880 --> 02:15:57,560 Don't, don't print in the newspaper that I'm at. 2135 02:15:59,000 --> 02:16:00,920 Yeah. But have you considered that he 2136 02:16:00,920 --> 02:16:03,280 has a 19% tariff run on the year? 2137 02:16:04,040 --> 02:16:05,280 Like you should actually be happy. 2138 02:16:05,960 --> 02:16:08,000 Yeah, I know. I'm very, I'm very happy. 2139 02:16:08,240 --> 02:16:13,480 My Sklansky bucks or I just I'm rolling in the Sklansky's right 2140 02:16:13,480 --> 02:16:16,720 now. But with that, I think we'll go 2141 02:16:16,720 --> 02:16:19,760 ahead and wrap it up. If you made it to the end, we 2142 02:16:19,760 --> 02:16:23,520 appreciate you. Hope that you took something 2143 02:16:23,520 --> 02:16:26,960 away from this show. Good luck in this week and we 2144 02:16:26,960 --> 02:16:31,240 did not hit our goal of under 2 hours, but we were we were 2145 02:16:31,240 --> 02:16:35,280 directionally accurate. Yeah, we, we, yeah, we're 2146 02:16:35,280 --> 02:16:40,280 directionally, we got Skolanski bucks in in our under 2 hours 2147 02:16:40,280 --> 02:16:42,520 'cause I think this is the shortest show all season. 2148 02:16:44,120 --> 02:16:46,120 Yeah. All right. 2149 02:16:46,120 --> 02:16:48,080 Well, we will see you all next week. 2150 02:16:48,080 --> 02:16:50,559 Have a good one, everybody. See you next week, everyone.