Today is your 19th. We have not one, but two former
NFL superstars in DeAndre Hopkins and Dalvin cook as NFL
free agents, ready to destroy the fantasy value of incumbent
wide receivers running backs across.
Today, we'll break it all down and more.
This is ATP. Chasing, let's go.
Pat prior homos. Handjob.
Fix your sight. Your bar.
Welcome everybody to another edition of ATP chasing.
We're joined today by my former co-host Conrad Driscoll.
Oh, I might be. Yeah, like, this scene for you.
Connor. That's a former as in the show,
is, you know, taking, a temporary Hiatus, but did he ask
you about this pot? Yeah, no, I recommended to do it
this time, way, way up, but it's coming above from above that.
Even. Yeah, what's he doing?
All right. What a start.
We're here. We got a bunch of old guys who
are still inexplicably being drafted.
High feels, I mean at this point with with the rumors that
DeAndre Hopkins is not being allowed to leave the greater
Massachusetts area without a contract.
He just feels like spicy expensive, Juju Smith sister to
me at at wide receiver, 19, a BP.
It's interesting because I've seen some people be in on it.
I think Denny Carter was saying he was in on him Jake.
Jacob did like a whole post Jacob was on him.
He why explaining why being a patriot is that he's like much
worse than Prime nuke? They that I don't think that he
got cut, my evidence would be then he got to cut.
That is a relevant data point. It's a good.
Just it just I got we do this thing and we're doing it with
DeAndre Swift to wear when a team decides.
Your services are no longer needed, we come up with reasons
why another team would want your services, but the bottom line
is, if it's worth your life and more exposure up, hey, a team
team wanted him and I haven't been taking him.
I have honestly have not been. It's gone way down.
He actually has gotten correspondingly.
More expensive as people realize, they don't want to
click on Allen Lazard or Jamison Williams or Juju Smith was
happening to me, I started taking a more because of that
that's that's what it was. A structural thing why I always
take him to begin with but Where I'm at on both Hopkins.
And Alvin is that if those are the guys that like if you, you
send me my year-end Summary of why I didn't win the stupid 3.5
million dollars, and it was because I lost because the
people who were on Hopkins and cookware, right?
I accept that as a reason why I didn't win, you know, the record
of saying, oh, hey, we went into this season expecting him to
play for us but then apparently he doesn't want to And the but
shouldn't there. Be a team willing to give up a
third round pick for his Services, right?
And, and it's even more worrying.
I don't think, you know, maybe that's maybe that's fair.
Maybe like the Derek Carr situation, right?
Like obviously Traders should have been able to get in traffic
for Derek Harper. Once they make it clear that
they're gonna cut him than a team doesn't have the incentive
to do it. So it could be, it could be
along those lines. Is this the only why would I
create say a contractor who supports that?
And it just makes sense. Yeah I mean you can give I think
to like the fair to Hopkins. If you look at his stats from
last year, he still was flashing like top 12 wide receiver status
like 26% targets for about Ron. That was eight months wide
receivers with over 200 routes 2.0 yards per route Ron.
That's a top-20 number 13. Have PPR points for game again,
top top ten number there. So what he was doing last year
still, I think justifies him at that age.
DP. I think it is a fair question
though of, you know, whatever situation he lands in now, you
know, potentially on the Patriots in a low-volume
offense, you know, potentially being the water Seaver to on a
team, like the Browns or maybe the, you know, even the Chiefs
our bills. I think I'm more in on him than
you are Davis. Like, I don't know, I've been
clicking in when he falls a couple pics which you has been
reached Browns, the Browns he would be I would be in on There.
Because I think he probably just the routes, he runs he's going
to be like a really good volume, roll with Watson and he would
obviously kill Elijah more dead. I mean, Elijah more would be
like under applicable. If Hopkins was on the team.
Yeah. I also think I would think you'd
be the favorite to be the wide receiver want.
And I think this him reuniting with DeShaun Watson, I mean I'm
all right Cooper. We weren't even interested in
Lauren Cooper last year. You know, he had a right a
surprisingly good year but yeah, I think he'd probably work ahead
of Cooper, be 1A 1B thing probably, but Yeah, I think
that's I think that's right. I mean the other concerning
thing is it's June 19. The season starts in 80 Days,
he's had all these free agent visits.
We've heard nothing about the bills with the Chiefs.
The teams that should most be willing to pay, but you gotta
have heard about the bills, which is that they're unlikely
because the cap reason. So that's he's not going to the
bills. I don't think for a fantasy,
what do we want better? Because, you know, Hopkins is
probably dealing with these this thing right now, like this is
the conversation him and his management.
Having do we sign a one-year prove it deal with a good team?
Do we care about winning a championship or do we want to
get all of our money? Do we want?
Do is what's more important? You know, being in a winning
situation for getting the money because the teams that can give
them the money, are not winning situations, right?
Like the fact that he was willing to take a fucking free,
agent meeting with the Tennessee Titans where, I mean, best case.
What do they win? Like 89 games.
Maybe like it. It's that is a bad football
team. And him taking meetings with
them seems to me that it would be more about the money.
And those are going to be situations where the team level
stuff is not going to favor him. I'm the Patriots.
One's pretty good fit in terms of if they're willing to pay him
a little bit more, I don't know exactly what's on the table, but
that's how can be like a winning team.
Obviously, in the sense of like, you know, him going to, the
Chiefs would be, but with Hopkins there and an offensive
coordinator, they do strike me as the type of team that Would
like be way more frisky an offense than we would have
thought, you know, in January, and if it's kind of correlated,
I think as well. And that, like, if Hopkins is
good, if Hopkins is like, like he dominated even in terrible
offense of situations already. Like yeah, it wasn't one of his
best Texans yours with like three quarterbacks like a kind
of yeah. Amber like He should have just
stayed and played with Clayton tune then if it's about money
just stay at just stay in Arizona and get 150 Clayton tune
targets. Well they cut man I do think
there is some risk with the age. Maybe not necessarily
performance decline but we're just talking about the show that
we're all generally the same age and not that we're comparing
with athletes but I've definitely felt more pain.
Than I did when I was younger. I play Pickleball Saturday and
Sunday and I'm spent that was it.
It's not that means anything. But you do get a fire suit and
to get injured more likely to be injured.
The over again is 31. I would be more concerned if he
was showing a decline. In fact in 2021, he did kind of
decline a little bit yards per hour and up 21 points.
Six from 2.25 year before he was kind of being used a little bit
more downfield and wasn't drawing targets at all that high
of a rate. So, it was like a little
concerning that maybe you might. Do you like, do you like came
back though? That's the same back thing is
that? Yeah, yeah, there's that other
element of the PD suspension and like, how much, how much did
that factor into whatever he had going on, you know, because P
these are about recovery. It's about getting your body.
Speaking of the Aging stuff it's about going from you know 70
percent recovery to 85 percent recovery like literally like
getting oxygen back to your muscles faster because your
body's ability to do that wonder, you're dangerous.
Yes, it'll be a great Point. That's true.
Yeah. So to that, I mean to the
promise of the show with ATP chasing.
Is there a landing spot that tanks like of the popular
Landing spots? The ones hiding out?
Since X is the one that would tank if you guys.
But where would he land? What was a TPP?
He'd go. Where he'd go where God wanted
Pittman go? I think that's right.
But that's still not that far minutes, early 5th but also, but
also think about what it would do to Burke's Burke's then would
become a guy. We could take all the time
because we could just bet against the old guy and take
Burke's because Birds would get nuked Burke's would drop back
door like James and Williams goes.
I think I think you'd be where Bateman is Yeah, since they were
babies Bateman, see ya around and a half, probably, but yeah,
I don't know. I think that's the one, like, of
all the other ones that have been thrown out so far.
Even the Texans, right? I think the Texans is kind of
similar to the Patriots where we don't expect the team to be
good, but he could just absolutely dominate targets.
They're like, I don't think he falls that much a few Lance
there. The Browns.
I think he rises the Bills and Chiefs I think he rises even
though those are probably less likely at this point.
So, I don't I have no money. The Chiefs have no money to give
any one they are. So they are so cameras out.
I'm assuming Patriots at this point and he falls into the mid
to late fourth. I've been taking him.
Yeah, you know, you also do correlate them with the bills,
so if there's that 1% chance, he does sound with the bills, you
have them like easily stacked. It's all part of the same game
stack. So this this leads a lot of
credence to our Theory, by the way that that like betting on
the Patriots have An offensive coordinator is one of the only
edges right now and best ball is like legit like one because
obviously having Hopkins instead of JuJu or Kendrick born is good
for you. But then to just that they're
wanting to add talented players to the offense.
Yes like is lending Credence to the theory that they'd like to
score some points. It'd be a good signal overall
for sure. I mean Court quarterback is so
quarterback is so hard to acquire ceiling at like after
Anthony Richardson goes that getting back Jones as your
second quarterback on some of these teams and having him be
the quarterback 17 is like actually what did masses here.
It's gonna mad points here. Normally doesn't matter just
because liked it when the other quarterbacks are like reasonably
priced like getting QB 17 from the 18th doesn't matter.
But Now what the price is like it matters so much more.
Yeah with with the three best quarterbacks being gone by pick
30, being able to get being able to get like actual quarterback
points in the last round is going to be like fairly massive,
I think. Yeah.
And he has job security. You know maybe not like true,
true job security. Like if he absolutely sucks
though bench him. But if Hopkins goes there you
know it's at all close to what we would expect the offensive
look like with an offense coordinator.
Mater plus Hopkins. If he's pretty say yeah, the
reports for makris a P2 or pretty favorable.
For one of those are worth this point in the season.
The beat reporters are saying, Mac is outperforming zappy,
pretty pretty easily and it doesn't seem like a quarterback
competition or anything along those lines.
Like it's a pretty clear lead for Mac.
So anyways, I'll add the rest. Well, I guess Hawkins isn't a
riser hugest topical conversation for today.
I think another guy looking at the risers now from the past.
Eek A guy who I think is an interesting comparison to
DeAndre Hopkins. For a lot of reasons is Keenan
Allen who is up for the second week in a row?
You know, obviously not the same stylistic player as Hopkins, but
similar age and similar to Hopkins, really was quite good
on a per game basis last year. When he played, I won't go
through all the numbers but similar to Hopkins, you look at,
you know, yards for outrun targets throughout Ron receiving
grade, you know, Point fantasy points per game.
He didn't Alan is still on that sort of top 12 bubble.
Well, as a wide receiver. So Connor, we've talked about
Keenan, Allen a lot. I think on the show this office
and curious if you're concerned with his age, or if you think
he's fairly valued at the end of the third round.
Now And I think that's about, right?
And like, especially in best in best ball tournaments.
I think a age, actually does matter quite a bit because you
still need them to be doing the same thing in week, 17.
And but he it's like you said, he has been performing.
And then, the other thing about them is that other than Eckler,
the utter receiving options either have have Huge question
marks or it's the rookie and and so that that does give them like
a good few out swear. If other players aren't
performing than he has to step up more.
And that's probably not groundbreaking and it's just the
thing with Kenan is that he's such, you just pick him and
you're like, yeah, it's fine. Like I just got Keenan Allen
like it, he makes sense for team building.
Ting because he goes so close to his teammates and he falls in an
ordered way that it's easy to select his teammates and a lot
of the guys that the room is asking you to take over him, are
guys that you can have legitimate.
Like it's just really not going to be surprising to me in any
way of Christian Watson like finishes outside the top 36
scores are wider. Yeah, Christian Watson strikes.
Me is more of a 45 turn pick that's on the 3/4 turn but I'm
like I'm still taking him some. Be sure does have such a high
But it's it's an uncomfortable price but look at all these guys
around him have such massive questions, like Hopkins.
We just talked about Judy. Like, Judy might not be as good
as we thought he was, and the offense could stink.
London, we know is good, but I take a lot of London.
Yeah, I take London to, but, but I don't feel great about taking
Ritter. So a lot of the times I'm like,
I'll take. So I'm setting up Keenan, so I'm
like, I'll take Herbert Mike Williams.
I mean, I just greatly prefer Kenan to his teammate Mike
Williams that the only honestly the only Guy in this range that
I have no questions about his McLaren like that, that for like
20 picks in a row. It's like, yeah, McLaren, he's
going to get people on stuff. I'll sometimes take what we'll
talk about. Brandon are you here?
I at this point in the in the fourth round I'm taking guys
based on what I think I'm going to be able to do in the
following round. So like sometimes I'll take
Drake London because I'm like maybe I can get a falling fields
and then I'll end up back door, stack him?
Sometimes I take DJ more because I pretty confident Fields will
come back around and I'll be able to get him in the fifth.
I will take McLaren sometimes because I don't think I have
much of a chance at those guys, but I might have a good chance
of bringing my uke and get that little mini correlation.
I'll take, I'll take Mike Williams Because I'm like, I
could use a quarterback here. I'll get Herbert when he comes
back. So, I would really like, I'm
kind of thinking through the team building stuff, if they get
a value on Christian Watson or nuke, I'll grab them.
But Keenan at the things most interesting about Kenan here is
that I think this is the final recovery of his ATP from the cut
rumors that started, you know, back in February or whatever.
Like had that not happened. I think he might have been going
here the whole time, which it's sort of.
Once I saw this, I was like, I should have been higher on them
throughout, like I was taking a fair amount of Keenan, I think
this whole draft season but it is one of the Things were it
seems silly that you know the rumor that he might be cut was
holding his ATP back still, but I think it probably was to a
degree because you knew like because he fell on the 3/4 turn.
You could feel like he'll be there when I come back around.
Why would I take him in the third, I can get Keenan in the
fourth, and there's that feeling that persists until it finally
breaks. And now once, you know, you have
to take in in the third like yeah, I like Keenan more than
Amari Cooper, you know? Yeah.
Right. There's a lot of paper
tiebreakers in favor of Canaan over Ameri.
Yeah. But I'm always been ahead of him
like the whole time until recently and if he if he's does
like if he just doesn't i-i'm starting to Trend this way that
I actually think Herbert like the Chargers could lead the NFL
in points scored. You know, they were so obviously
held back by their play-calling and their play design that it
just feels as if K. Well, I mean Kelly, And more was
like unlocking, Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz.
Like like, you know what I mean? Like if Quint, like let's say,
Quentin Johnston is good, right? Let's say he comes in
understands the Playbook, you know, it is not having trouble
with some of these things that maybe the film Watchers think he
might have trouble with and they find some sort of reasonable
complementary back to Austin Eckler.
That is not as he go Elliot and that guys getting it done on the
ground and it's like a nonzero as a pass catcher.
So hecklers just like fresh and get it like it could set up as
the Cowboys but with like really good players at all those
positions instead of Noah Brown and and you know, Michael Gallup
who like is struggling to walk. Yeah, I take a lot of Herbert
because you get that that price that's just you know much better
than certainly, the quarterback prices were earlier.
Yeah. Although at this point, maybe
the gap between the curvature, probably be in the sixth given
that Fields as falling to the mid to late fifth down Borough
pulse the fifth sometimes. Yeah.
Yeah, I think we mentioned Quinton Johnson but if Johnson
is good back to, you know, Keenan's price at the three,
four turn. I think he hurts my Mike
Williams, much more than he heard.
Oh, for sure Alan, which I actually Mike Williams.
We talk about the water severs in that range.
He's the one that I'm kind of most scared of in the McLaren
London, Judy Hopkins, Watson range.
I agree all those guys have red flags, but Williams for me, is
the, the toughest right-click because of that, I don't know.
He's never like he did have that stretch of six games, right?
Yeah, that's sad. He's had a couple.
Is I was at I was at a Chiefs Chargers game, where he scored
three touchdowns and it just it was like there's sometimes
there's nothing you can do about that.
Dude, the issue is that. He, every time he catches a
pass, it looks like he's gonna die.
Like he catches the pass. And you think you just like the
stretcher is coming out from. I mean, he's been injured every
year for the last three years. Yeah, what I would say.
So, Mike Williams is not like the most popular guy in our
circles. Generally.
He doesn't get open, which is a problem and he has contested
catch specialist. Who falls down extremely hard
every time he catches the ball. So not not my favorite archetype
either but I do think he's a fine pick where he's going.
I think what Quinton Johnson could add to the offense, has
some more explosiveness but not necessarily like a high Target
learning type of profile. He's kind of a raw like athlete
is not as athletic as we were hoping.
But, you know, Kind of this yards, after catch type of guy.
He's not a very good deep breath.
I don't, I don't think he competes with Mike Williams in
the same exact way. Like, Mike Williams doesn't
separate at all, but is a really good contested catch player.
He's more of like a tea. Higgins type, I think couldn't
Johnson's, probably more of like a brain and I uke where I
shouldn't say. He's not a good deep threat.
I think he could if he's open over the middle, you know.
That could work really well but he's not like a guy, you Chuck
the ball up to, and he wins over his Defender.
That's not who he is. He was actually pretty terrible
at that. Yeah, so in some ways Williams
could if the offense is like more explosive and more
difficult to deal with the big guy who can't separate getting
more one-on-one coverage, could be good.
I mean, Williams is sealing case to being like a huge Advance
rate guy or the guy you need in week 17, it's all touchdown
related stat. Is that that's that's been his
As big as think what's 5oo and he score some touchdowns.
Yeah, let's talk about this Acres rise.
Because this to me, has nothing to do with Cam Akers or these
quotes around him. It just has to do with him being
a more comfortable. Click one more comfortable,
click than the guys going directly around him and to every
day that passes and they don't sign Zeke, or for net or cream
hunt or whatever, and it's him Chiron Williams and the fifth
round, rookie or whatever. It's just more likely he's the
guy but more comfortable click than Swift way more.
Comfortable have Alex looked better.
I'm so out on Swift, I know Swift is going to be the guy is
the reason why I don't win the 3.5 million dollars.
I think. But I'd rather have Acres.
I was reviewing some numbers on Swift and just like his
receiving stuff. Is he's good, are we good?
He's good. Did I have no question?
No concern about cam Akers or about DeAndre Swift being a good
player. The questions I have for the
same things that caused him to not play when he was in Detroit,
which is He never does what his running back.
Coach asks him to do. And he in fact, it goes against
his instructions, all the time where they're like, we need, we
need you to do this and he's like, no, I'm gonna go freestyle
jazz on the perimeter here instead, like I did this thread
the other day and I just Googled news DeAndre Swift and every
Google news story from the last year is like do Staley or Dan,
Campbell being like. Yeah, you know, we sat him down
and we talked to him and was a good conversation but doesn't
really seem to be flying it and games, if I have that archetype,
I would prefer him to be on the League's best offensive line in
an extremely explosive offense with the offensive philosophy
that prizes explosive plays, right?
So, I don't have any pushback on DeAndre Swift's between the
tackles running. In fact, it might get overrated
just how bad it is. His success rate in NFL next
gen. Over the last couple of years
has been atrocious His and his yards before, contact up the
middle is like really good though.
You would expect that though, because he doesn't want to get
contacted. He will do anything to avoid the
contact. He will, he will de doodle-do
like a 360 spin juke move, just so he doesn't get squared up.
So, you would think his yards before contact would be good?
You're right? That's true.
Well, isn't that like you're not supposed to get contact?
Well, if you're coding for the place, if your coaches are
right, I can understand why that would piss off, like, Dan
Campbell whatever. This, this is, the, this is, the
thing is that we need him at this ATP, which is basically
where Mi Sanders was going last year.
Maybe he was a little bit cheaper than this realm like
relatively speaking at running back, but the idea because the
run that the Eagles are not going to throw that many passes
to, the running backs, there were 61 total thrust of the
running backs. Last year.
Split up amongst three guys, 61 targets.
I don't even think It's attainable for Swift it.
When I agree. I agree.
So it's got to be touchdowns. He's got a score, a lot of
touchdowns. And if you're not getting
carries from the 3-yard line, which Mi Sanders got like a
bajillion of, it's going to be hard to get those touchdowns and
then they might, in fact, their plan probably is to give him
those touchdowns, right? Or those carries right now.
I would guess. But four weeks into the season
and he gets stonewalled twice and bounces one to the outside
and fumbles on one. How long do they stay?
To that, I think his chances of a strong goal.
Line roll are extremely low, I think gain, well, might play
ahead of him on the goal line that I take.
No, I take gain. Well, I prefer game.
Yeah. And even Boston Scott, I think
might have the edge on him on the goal line.
Yeah. He is a guy who could score the
unlikely like long-distance or sound that's what it is to me.
He's been he's kind of Walker. Yeah it's a Kenneth Walker play
for me and I think he could get enough receiving volume to where
you know that makes him a little interesting and then you're just
betting that he rips off the long touchdown and at a seventh
round ATP or even eighth round sometimes like I don't need him
to like I don't need the legendary upside.
I don't need him to rack up a ton of touchdowns and it's a
real. What do you win when you win
style thing? Because the guys going around
him Acres Pacheco white Connor. These guys are very unlikely to
be the guys, you need, right? I don't see, I don't see the
2021 or 2022. Josh.
Jacob season like Pacheco is the chief starting running back and
he's going to score like 160 Shadow .5 P, PR points.
I've been taking a little bit cuz he's falling, but it is, I
don't think the market has fully clocked the fact that he won't
be a training camp for like the first half is hurt.
Yeah, he's hurt. Yeah.
And there's this utf-8 and Erik Prince to they're all my God,
enough of it. It's just it's all I see people.
People with their dinaric prince.
Well the the Pacheco drumbeat ended up being pretty predictive
so I don't know. I think what's nice The expense
of Chiefs running back, that's it.
It's a good, it's really. I mean, it's one, that's an
extremely good philosophy. The issue with that is is that
McKinnon is not free, the way he is dead Warriors.
Past year, you're paying for McKinnon this year, another
year, older and closer and closer to not be like to the
point where the Chiefs get to December and they're like all
right jarek it's time and jaracz like getting out of bed and
cracking his knees and like you know putting Icy Hot on his
back. Back like closer and closer to
him not being able to do that. Yeah, it's speaking of recovers.
Could it just be a sad like we cannot good say that Connor
could it their Chiefs backfield, just be a spot where they're all
priced up that like, the winner doesn't come from that.
You, I mean 20 Clyde Clyde rookie year.
They were all bad. Every every guy who played was
was bad, there was there was not really one guy you wanted to
have that year. The following year Darrell was a
smash. Yeah.
But 2020 Chiefs running backs. Let's see here.
So Clyde was bad. Levy on was bad, Darwin Thompson
was bad. Darrell had one good game but
they were they were really none of them you wanted in fantasy.
You kind of need to guy that come out of nowhere in that
backfield like almost with like how random they use different
players like it. I don't think it works to say
you know what? This is, this is the Chiefs
back. Like, I know they're getting XYZ
volume and I'm just going to pay for that.
I don't think that like that works.
Well, there's a running back with Super Bowl experience.
Who said all he doesn't care about the money he gets on this
next contract. All he wants to do is win
another Super Bowl. Who is I just let her for that.
Is going to sign with the Chiefs.
Like I just, I'm preparing Leonard fournette.
Such a good pick right now. I take him a lot.
Yeah, I've sometimes take gain well and then I immediately
regret not adding another. No, no gain.
Well, gain. Well, Well is good.
This actually you know but I just want I want for this maybe
it don't wear. The Bangles is a market for
Lenny so this is also I think an underreported thing is that the
Bangles beat writers are saying that Joe Mixon and the team
still need to come to terms with a pay cut for him.
They're probably going to put a contract extension is what I was
reading in front of them and that extension, when I think
probably lower his cap kit. Be like a trade for maybe
another year or two in exchange for less money this year,
otherwise they're going to cut him.
That's the way it sounds and the markets like completely back in
on mixing now. But that is a spot right?
Like they could cut him in sign Lenny and honestly like is that
worse for them? I mean, yeah it's probably
slightly worse for them but you know if they can get a good a
good deal on Lenny who just wants to win a Super Bowl, then
I it's kind of a no-brainer Yeah, you're you are on a
present, right? I think this the Lenny,
conversation dovetails nicely with Jerome Ford who is just
going to keep Rising every single week that the Browns,
don't sign another running back, right?
Because like the coaches are all really complementary.
If I mean this was around 18, pick when we started doing this
for BBM and now like, sometimes you got to take him in like the
14th on a zero running back team to make sure you get them.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Things you that sure.
I mean, I'm starting to get scared.
I get, the reports are good like, I think where he is.
Fairly priced, but I'm starting to get skeptical of a guy who
had eight carries for 12 yards last year as this like Surefire,
like I get right now he's the most likely, Cleveland number
two, but if chub goes down, like, I don't know.
I feel like it turns into a committee and with whom I think
it's going to be a committee even which of their but look
who's in the other, they don't, they don't even have an R B3 on
the roster right now. John Chow, but I think I think
they're gonna sign. I think they're gonna sign
someone. I don't think it's going to be
for net orhan. Thor someone, but, you know,
Darryl, we are saying, they'll, they'll sign someone, but yeah,
maybe a deer hunter, some type or something.
I think I think Ford is a pretty clear handcuff 1314, if he
settles there, that, I think that's okay, especially in a
period where we like, don't know, for sure who the handcuffs
were is unlike a number right back fields.
Yeah, that will. That is the explanatory
variable, for why? The rise is happening is because
we have less Clarity. Like the market doesn't know who
to take between Chase Brown. Treyvion Williams.
The market was like exuberant about Chase Brown for a period
and they don't need to be anymore.
This, this Paris Campbell rise. What are we doing?
Paris Campbell's not going to be who you need week 17, spoiler.
Well, that's that's fair. I, it does sound like he's gonna
get like a fair amount of playing time out of the gate to
me, this is one Dale Robinson thing where I just like I'm
taking a slot receiver off, an ACL tear and he might start the
season on pup and they signed, like 18, slot receivers, which
is not great anyway. And then one of them is starting
to get buzzed like want and wandell's still like more
expensive than Hodgins and Slaton, obviously, I'm still
free. So to me, it's Hodgins Slaton.
Those are the guys I want to be drafting.
Highest also feels very he's with the third team right now is
a third round pick. I don't know.
Weird right? I just don't care.
I'll just take one day. Look for The Vibes dude.
But well, there's Good Vibes. Yeah.
Like I just think yeah. Like I the the Paris Campbell
Vibes his entire career, like he's amongst the worst Vibes of
any player in the NFL. I agree with you.
The Vibes are so bad. I don't care how much guaranteed
money he got if they're counting on this thing is either wide
receiver. He's gonna he's gonna have an
ankle tweak and we're going to be treated to Jameson Crowder by
like week three. I just don't know why Paris is
that like he did get like an 80% ripe Cherry last year.
Storms, 550 now, PP or points. I'm not sure what the hot
people, you are where it was, but he did score points.
And if you got that from the 16 17 rounds, like that's useful.
Like if he did just end up being like, a plays, most of the
schnapps guy, that would be useful.
I mean, they say, I could see Paris, Putting together like has
a Jonesy kind of season where he's just out there a lot.
Yeah but look. See, John's can like run real
routes and like go down field in a way that Paris is Paris.
Campbell is just kind of survived off like gimmicky like
screens and Yak stuff. I don't know, I think it's a
little that's like a little bit of slandered as a Jones a
Campbell last year, you know, out of 100 wide receivers.
He was 94th in Europe for out, Ron 86 and targets for out, Ron
86th and PFF, receiving grade 6, half.
PPR It's for game. I mean, I don't know, I don't
get, I guess I can't hate on the Giants picks too much because
it's so uncertain. And yeah, if I was projected,
now he's probably the starting slot wide receiver to start the
year. But shearling Shepherd, their
Sterling Shepherds actually like looking healthy and Camp.
Apparently, that's the thing of Sterling Shepherd.
Stayed healthy for the entire season.
I feel like we should have just taken him every time.
Like Sterling Shepherd, could have a wide receiver.
He could be like the wide receiver 13.5.
PPR if he stays healthy all year, listen, if he's, what do
you want to try this? Rumors, say, come in the 20th
round than the ffp. See.
Live drops every year. Yeah, it's a good pick.
It's good pick. Didn't he did he tear his
Achilles too? Or is it just an ACL?
He's had a, he's at home. That's so tough and not see him
like since I don't know, I don't draft him but I wouldn't be
shocked if he was, but he's coming out of the slot.
Most likely that's I just don't actually, I don't want.
To spend any capital on the giant slot receiver.
When there's so many guys you could be there.
Exactly. It's and it's like, what do you
when you win? It's like great.
You got, you know, Daniel Jones slot wide receiver.
I don't get it there. And wohlers also there, he's
going to play in the slot, a bunch of people.
People are our, it's type of our hypothetical eating this.
That's not the right word hypothesizing that Waller is
going to be like a boundary wide receiver.
That like the role, they have carved out for him is actually
just to use it. Him as like a flanker basically
interesting. I mean he has played something
would be there throughout his career, I bet he rotates.
I bet he plays lot of Eddie plays outside Stephen all
surprised and lime time but that, I bet, that's right.
Yeah, that was his position in college.
He was he was the Georgia Tech flanker when he was a he was a
Collegiate wide receiver. So it's not it's not like the
craziest thing but I mean I think that that's that's sounds
better if like they add that to his existing like slot and rice
roll. Yeah, I've gotta I've been
liking Waller especially on some like Waller Stacks like aren't
going my way and I'm like oh this is feeling like a pretty
uncorrelated team grabbing Waller and stacking up with
Daniel Jones and then tack on like halogens are Slayton later.
I mean, I think he's just going to be the focal point of like if
If all goes to plan, I think they're planning on him.
Being the focal point of their passing attack, whether he still
can do that. I'm not 100% sure but I think
that's their plan identify like you with that.
I like the color. He played, 20 percent of his
snaps out wide last season. That was his low with the
Raiders in 2018 is first year with the Raiders he played six
laps at your so 2019 is the first real year at the Raiders.
He had a 25% rate of That why? I mean yeah I think he's going
to he's gonna move around the formation for sure.
And that's out why it is in like on the boundary as opposed to
like suck position, right? Yes, lot.
He was at 31% in 2019 in line for 45 percent last year.
He was in the slot, primarily 62%, he wasn't only in line for
for 17% of a snaps last year. They were just having them run
deep out of the slot did You know, the other interesting
thing is that they they also like balance Ballinger.
Like they don't think Ballinger is like a zero like he's going
to he's going to be around and kind of like a Noah gray style
way just like blocking a lot, but that directly takes naps
away from these like 900 slot wide receivers who are getting
drafted point being. They're all pretty bad pics.
I think like just very unlikely they're they're the two things
are, they're unlikely to be that just like veteran like he'll get
you 11 points. Like, they'll get you 11 points
sometimes and extremely unlikely to give you like 25 points Bike
Week like almost impossible, cheers.
So, I don't think it's like, you know, we're spending so much
time, you know, not not, this isn't like these guys are super
pricey but relatively pricey picks in Campbell wandel
Robinson, like trying to figure out the giant slot wide
receiver. When like the bills slot wide
receiver is just completely free.
Like I just can't think you're in Hardy AR.
Better pay if you're trying to figure out like think the slot
wide receiver on a team. Like why are we doing this on
the New York Giants? Like the it makes so then these
guys think the Giants up should just be undrafted basically
pretty much no there. But they're like, I think
they're all 18th round picks. Like they're the same thing as
taking. Greg dork, right me.
Yeah, I don't mind the outside guys as much but Slayton is free
and I do mind taking. Hi, I'm like hi, it's ATP to me
is never corrected since he was talked about as a potential
First round pick like his price is pretty similar to when we
thought that was on the table. And now, the third round pick is
playing with the third team offense, Slayton was good last
year. This coaching staff has, you
know, history dating back to the bills of bring the rookies along
slowly. I just have like a hard time
thinking that high, it's going to add like at I'll take him
sometimes correlate with Daniel Jones.
I want to be completely out but I just think Slayton being free
is is nice. And then I do Take Hodgins as
well because I think you know as long as they don't do something
with wall or where he's like legit, clang the X but you're
saying Davis, he might be more like the flanker with the Z.
So if Hodgins has the X roll kind of locked down there's no
one else that really challenges in that Hodgins is that if
things get weird for them as a team and training camp and
someone's performing above expectation, or is like becomes
a core for special teamer when they haven't before or just
something like that Hodgins is makes Money.
So, he's the easiest, he's the easiest to cut.
I mean, I think there's like audible.
I don't you, like, I win the starting job or he's gonna get
caught. Yes, there's no value for him as
a backup. Yes, like if he has a mediocre
training camp or like you just look, if he lips off to the
coaching staff for just like he, he makes like they have like 11
wide receivers on their roster. He makes the least money so it's
just very simply on a rookie deal though.
So that's not necessarily a reflection of his value.
Well it's making me sick a lot of freight.
Yeah, it's not her. Flexion of his market value,
right? Because they didn't have to pay
him anymore to lock him. Yeah, they just they just claim.
It sounds more, like, they'll keep them then.
Well, so we could say it makes anything below Market.
He's a boy but he has to be a starter right.
If he's like we trust him. He's going to play experts with
that's great. Then I'll send us contracts an
advantage if he loses the starting role to someone else,
he's an easy cut because the problem is if you look at and
this isn't always end all be all.
But you look at the guaranteed money, they gave I think seven
guaranteed to Slayton. So he's a lock, to make the team
Paris Campbell. I think they actually gave 3
million guaranteed. So that's like nearly a lock to
make the team. I'd say they could kill them
with that but it'd be a little glossy generating Buzz become
out of that kind of. Yeah.
And they also, you know, they spent a second round pick on one
day. All this pain, a third-round
pick on Hyatt, those guys aren't getting caught.
So like, once you start doing the math Hodgins, I write is
that nobody else is quotable. He's the last man.
He's like, that's the thing is that he's competing with like
Shepherd and Crowder. I guess.
Like so he's and he's a cult favorite a couple.
Yeah, he's a favorite. He's a favor.
Yeah, he's a huge favorite over those guys.
Because although it's like I think we tend to do this cranes.
Made this point to me before is we tend to overreact when these
guys who come out of nowhere over perform a couple games,
like Richie James, his former teammate is actually a great
example of this Ritchie James career, special team.
Like it was special teams for San Francisco.
For two years comes in on a Monday night against Green Bay,
13 targets 11 receptions, 180 yards and two touchdowns and we
literally never heard from him again.
He came in, he played really well.
We never heard from him again. Again, the 49ers unceremoniously
cut him, he was a reserve player.
He was playing behind David Sills, like in for the Giants.
Like it didn't matter. He was good for the Giants last
year and they get and they moved on from him like no sweat.
They didn't think twice about it.
It's the Travis fulgham corollary basically.
Oh my God. Yes.
These guys can just disappear and I agree that like, you know,
we're not saying Hodgins, is unlikely to make the team, or
that Shepherd, is better than him.
I don't think anyone of any of us are saying that were just
saying that. Like I would put his odds of
making the team at like 80%. And there's a lot of guys, you
can take that are closer to 100%.
So it's like, do you want to take that risk?
I think you can justify it. Like, I've taken some Hodgins,
but I think you have to acknowledge.
He does have like a legit cover, a cut risk.
I do think you have to acknowledge that.
I take a fair amount of them because I think, His odds of
starting are also about eighty percent.
So it's like you know, it's like the scenarios where he doesn't
start, he's a zero. But there's guys in that room
you could get. You could get picked up, you
know? I mean I think I didn't seem
would claim him. Good land mangoes bills.
Yeah, I was gonna say maybe he goes back to Buffalo where they
they do kind of need someone. Let's do it.
Let's do I uke cuz I am buying this dude like I you into I you
quit with Purdy for 17 games dude like come and I made on
About to, they both seem they both seem like guys who can get
there with 22 percent Target shares, and they definitely can
be the guys, you need week. 17. I think both things are true.
Someone tweeted this out this week.
I'm blanking on here, but it was when I, you can see MC D Bo.
Wait, Dwyane Wade, when all everyone was healthy and on the
field, it was basically, I uke Debo and CNC all with like 20,
21 percent Target shares, and then kid'll at, like, Percent.
Now that's that's a small sample.
Like I don't think that's how I'd like project it in the
median outcome but I think IU has a chance to be.
You know the top Target get it on this offense if Purdy plays a
full year so Harmons get something reception stuff always
like sigh. You always always grades him out
really well? Which makes sense.
Yeah. Yeah.
I was wasn't quite as into I you back when the quarterback
situation felt like very uncertain now.
You know, you get into that really fifth round and it's like
Godwin, Pittman Iuka is just such an easy.
Click there, for me over those guys, like just a weekly upside.
The, this offense is rolling down the stretch, like, you
think about, you know, how psyched we were to draft.
These guys in the the playoff basketball.
It's went. Oh my God.
Every, you know, every draft. I took one of these.
Yeah. If they're that 49ers, then like
you're going to be so psyched that you have fifth round.
I you look like that. That seems like a pretty easy
and, and for their games, every year that used to be Rock
fights, right against the Rams and the Cardinals.
Those used to be and the Seahawks honestly for that
matter, those NFC West games used to be like rock fights and
now, every team in that division either stinks or plays like a
more wide open fun version of football.
Like those seven games are those eight games that they're going
to play are all better games and the week 17 game could be fun
too. I mean it could be tear, it
could also be terrible. If the If L is good that road.
Yes, it could really push the 49ers.
Yeah, I use. Like so they probably won't be
running a ton, right? I mean, you'd hope the enemy
would be, you know, inclined to be passing more than they did
previously anyway. But especially against the
49ers, like, I don't know. You don't want to just slam
Brian Robinson for the line. Yeah, I'm talking on the the
Patriots stuff. So with James Robinson getting
cut both Ramon jae-rim, Andre a stronger showing up here as
risers which I think is kind of funny because Robinson shouldn't
affect those guys atp's. I don't think he was likely to
make the team the entire time. But anyways, I think here strong
as probably the more interesting one to talk through here does
anyone feel Feel good about Pierre, strong and the 18th.
I've been taking him, but I do feel that it's still pretty
uncertain between him. Kevin Harris, you know, Ty
Montgomery there. Let me, let me tell you
something. I know with 100% certainty,
which is that Bill Belichick is going to try and make this time
Montgomery thing happen. Like it's just, no, is he going
to get hurt immediately, of course, but Ty Montgomery is
going to be when it's the first third down of the year, for the
New England, Patriots, Ty Montgomery is going to be like,
motioning from the Lot into the backfield with a hundred percent
certainty. Yeah, I don't know, Brandon
Bolden role, he's playing in Camp right now, so a couple
things on time of country, he did have that role in week one
last year, which a lot of people are citing before he got hurt in
the first half. I think he was playing third
down role and that offensive was a gross three-man committee with
Harris from Andre and time on all getting snaps.
But right now in Camp, he's playing clearly behind a strong
like Strong's mixing up the first team.
It's still super early. So so who knows how much Street
into that. But I just can't figure out like
what is the complement to Ramon? Like, are they looking for a
pass catching back to be the Confluence of Vermont?
Are they looking for a short like, I can sign?
I see it going either way. You know what I mean?
It's not clear where about what's the quote work?
That he's the starter, but we want to spell them unclear
passing situations. I thought that was a quote that
came out like that was important on Dre.
Yes, yes. I never seen something like
that. I think it could be kind of like
mix anywhere. Am Andre still catches a lot of
passes and its use in the passing game but like does get
subbed out on third down, some for I guess Ty Montgomery may be
pierced wrong but I don't know. You wouldn't need them to pass a
lot on first and second down. I think for that to be similar
to Mixon, I mean, the the this is the, the ideal thing that
would happen for am. Andre would be For him to take
the Sony Michelle. I don't you know who always had
a Damien. Well, Damien Harris, Sony
Michel. Who is the guy before Michelle?
But no, Steven Ridley. Stevan Ridley, was the name, I
was searching for, but then also subsume the third rule, right?
Because the Patriots used to have three roles, they have they
have the grinder that have the passing down back then they'd
have like their Red Zone. Swiss army knife, we are Dad,
you know, Rexburg, it would be Rex Burkhead, be a lot of
different. And so, what your employees
really want is you'd want him to have the Damien Harris, Stevan
Ridley role. But then also have that I would
call it, I would actually call it the Kevin Faulk role as
opposed to like the Shane, Vereen James White role where
you're getting him 40 to 50 receptions and all the goal line
work and that that is like that's totally justified in this
cause and there's enough meat on the bone for a stronger.
Harris to get around 18 value. No problem.
Yeah. Or Ty, Montgomery?
Right? I mean, when he's 30 years old,
he hasn't played backups. Montgomery's 30 years old and
hasn't played a full seat. His played one full season in
his last four years, so I guess something like yeah, 20 touches
in the last like three or four. You like, yeah, I'm kind of sick
of the time Montgomery stuff, but I don't know.
I do agree. They're gonna there.
It's not going to be like 100%, you know, a cm Cyril Forum Andre
Stevenson but I think sometimes we fail to put these things in
context where I still would project from Andre to have one
of the largest backfield shares of any running back this year,
like top 10, it doesn't mean that they're not going to get
somebody else involved. So I'm not reading into much to
these all season storylines like they have the same running back
room last year. I mean Ty Montgomery was injured
but you know what? It was Ramon drapey are strong
and Kevin Harris. All healthy last year he had a
Workhorse role. So why is that gonna change this
year? Yes, you can use the time
Montgomery argument but I'm pretty ended.
Did those backups were rookies last year and we've seen them,
you know, they completely redshirted are Harris.
You know, having those guys enter their second years and
ideal for him. I actually think having James
Robertson be cut in some ways is bad because Robinson was not
going to be good. You know, these other guys could
be good. It's at least plausible, that
one of them is really good. So I don't think these guys are
huge threats to remind you. I think reminder is totally
fine. Pick like late 3rd round worm
Andre which has been available. Pretty much all offseason has
been ranked the, the guy I think looking at this I just I mean
I'm back to the 2008, New England, Patriots trying to find
a comp to Ramon Dre. And there really isn't one
because they've always had its segmented out, but it's never,
they they've never done what it looks like they're doing with
their mom and rate, which is transitioning.
A guy from the Vereen Falk, would head roll into the Ridley,
Eros blunt role, but that's what they're doing right now.
And so I think I can't remember if Sam or Pat just said this,
but like applying the context of like they look reminders, really
good at both things. He's good at, he's good at the
past catching and he's good. In the short yardage Bill,
Belichick is like a pragmatic guy, he's not going to.
I don't think, I don't think they're going to be like, well,
we gotta get pierced wrong eight touches in this game, just
because he is that role in the backfield, it was that smoke
could be wrong if I'm wrong about Strong's profile, but I
think it Could be sort of like a CMC Mitchell type.
Split where Pierre strong comes in a sort of the change of pace
like five to ten carries per game guy.
He profiles is more sort of like a rusher than a receiver and
Ramon Dre, still keeps like the goal line work and the
receptions and they bring in strong with you some of like the
Trap Back type stuff. I mean he's 511, 205 pounds very
fast and he's yeah. I mean I don't I don't think he
Files is like a passing game specialist, but I think you need
to start. He profiles to say it is
explosion back, he's a yeah, change of pace, you know, having
Coleman e type of guy basically, it's I mean, he's a breakaway
Runner. You couldn't really see this
being presented in college. You could really see this being
a Devonta Freeman Tevin Coleman thing where they're really just
sort of interchangeable but one guy really gets the Lion's
Share. Yeah.
And some you remember, we were doing such a thing and Like if a
guy had 70% of the backfield chair, he was like almost in the
top five like the bear to be the quote.
Unquote Workhorse is like so much with over now.
It really is. Yeah, I think people forget that
to you when they're like, oh this guy's gonna have a role.
It's like I mean literally unless you're talking about
nausea Harrison 2021 CMC in 2020 like yes you can list like four
or five guys that literally had that insane Workhorse roll the
past couple of years but it kind of doesn't Exist.
So I think holding Ramon try to this higher bar then you know
it's never just gonna see your CMC is going to mix in for
another. It would make me nervous.
It really. S, s, right?
Yeah, yeah. Not not in the turd.
That's what I've come to that. Conclusion on a number of these
packs is that I actually I think if they were all second-round
picks which is kind of the feeling of the market is like,
man, we're getting such amazing values on these guys in the
third round, but I actually think they'd be fairly weak
second round. Picks a number of them and
remind Ray. I think Falls in that ring.
So is Josh Jacobs undervalued because he's going to get like
every goddamn touch, even Josh Jacobs.
I don't think like, I was looking at these guys through
the, the legendary upside screener.
And, you know, like, if you look at things that have predicted
these massive seasons in the past, like, Josh Jacobs is not a
very good bet. You know, even last year, we had
about 18 points, per game is kind of a four net type of thing
where like last year were, you know, drafting for net on the
two, three turn he's coming. Awesome season.
But even then he had like 18 points per game or so people in,
PPR, okay. I got 20 21 and it's like
Hitler. What you then?
Kenny have the ceiling. The true ceiling outcome.
Do you need to update the screener to include fewer points
per game? Because running backs are
scoring fewer points as a cup. I of the points that are
available I'd well I think there's two things, right?
One is what do you need out of the third round?
Compared to what you need out of the One to turn and I think
that's a pretty different if you get a guy who scores, you know,
18 PPR points in the middle of third round.
That's pretty fucking awesome. You know, like I'm not saying
but I would say, I don't think I need to update the screener in
the sense of if you're taking a running back at the one to turn,
you really should have the ability to tilt the, the fantasy
landscape and be that guy who you absolutely needed to have.
Why you're taking on a ton of risk?
You're also zigging against a market that is drafting wide
receivers higher than ever. And if you move away from that
to get a guy who scores you like 16 points per game, that's going
to really, really hurt this year.
So I don't think. And also, I would say, last
year, through 17 Games, Austin Eckler, hit the, the legendary
threshold. So you are still, I believe.
Jonathan Taylor did as well through 17 games in 2020.
One. So they exist.
They're hard to find, but these types of seasons do still exist.
That's fair. Let's move on now to the
fallers. Some guys here to talk about we
see Jalen hide on year etn. Berkeley Davante Adams are all
down. I wouldn't.
I would eat ENB following. He's a great guy.
He's calling a lot. It's the puppy XV stuff or maybe
the poppy, I don't know. Yeah, I think it's a in the
puppy picks as well. The running back has been
falling pretty consistently. I mean he was, he was like 30.
He was going at 30 overall and then all that.
XB stuff came out and then I mean it's been a 10 thick slide
over a month. I don't I don't think about tank
Bigsby at all this I just don't like e.t.
Any Tian is going to do what you did last year but if he just
gets like point, eight targets more per game, you know, like
they start tossing him, some skirt.
Like I don't know. He just also seems to me like
he's really good. I want to be like ET n versus
Gibbs is like not even a contest.
To me like etn is going to get 100 more.
Touches then Jameer Gibbs. I'd rather be jamming Gibbs as
well. I mean, I don't know, I think
it's a little bit like it's not completely comparable but it's a
little bit like the charbonnet to Ken Walker stuff where people
I think you know, if you look at ETS receiving efficiency stuff
last year, it wasn't that good. And people are saying, oh,
thanks Museum to come in and take the third down work, that's
not the body body body catches, bro.
He body catches and he's got big foot.
Placement is, well, this is a big thing on film Twitter.
He plants his feet. So people are worried, he's
gonna get hurt to give the film people, some kind of thing about
them Twitter at all. I do you think people 2010, came
out as a prospect, all the spreadsheet people were saying
that, he's this unbelievable receiving Prospect, you know,
one of the best we've had in a while.
And the film people are saying is routes.
Aren't that good? His hands aren't that good?
I think they've kind of been proven correct in the past.
No, no, no, they have. They've 100% friend proven
correct, but I don't think it matters because running back
targets are so often a valve or they are designed And, and you
can get, you can get, like, last year, etn had zero games.
He had two games with more than four targets and he had no games
with more than 43 receiving yards.
But they like, they can change that so easily.
Like they can just drop like two extra dumb plays damn game or he
gets a couple extra or if he's just on the field for more third
down. I think the main thing with its
yen is like his I think is TD upside could just be huge this
year unless you think they're gonna use Bigsby at the goal
line which I'm kind of skeptical of Like he had five touchdowns
last year on the Jaguars team, like that's pretty bad luck for
how good that offense was. And, you know, you had Ridley to
the mix this year. If the Jags offense is like a
top-five offense to think is in its range of outcomes.
He could just have a huge touch down here and pick 40.
I don't know if he catches 30 balls at pick 40, I guess I
don't really care that much. Like, you don't necessarily need
that. It would be great if you could
catch 50, 60 balls. But I don't think you need that
when he's going to pick 40. It's tough though because you
know Jonathan Taylor is falling all the way to the end of the
second round. Now, in a lot of cases or
towards the end of the second past, the midpoint you've got
chub there, you've got Pollard there, you've got Henry there.
If you want to go that route, you can take a wide receiver or,
you know, quarterback, whatever. And then coming coming back
around. You've got all those guys from
Andre briefs and then you come back into the late, fourth and
etn sitting there. So it's like, what do you It
actually because it taking all of them is not really on the
table right now. I've done the three running
backs in the first four rounds and it is it's not impossible to
dig out of but it is tough. So I think that's what's really
driving this fall. I think if the market is a whole
shift away from wide receiver, little bit, will see etn bounce.
Bounce back up to the 3/4 turn pre, he's making a point packs.
I thought I was like, oh I think I'm in any tiene pick 40.
And I just checked my exposure to them through 50 drafts and
I've literally zero share. So I think it's the same.
It's the same Dynamic you're talking about where the pockets
don't literally lineup. But I don't know if you go to
the end of the fourth, I think, you know, right now it's just
that I want to take London over him.
I want even Terry McLaren over him, but if he gets past those
guys, I think I would start to have a lot more of him, so we'll
see if the slide continues. It sounds like we think he's
officially priced. I've got 12.
I've got twelve percent. I think I should have more of
them. I don't really know why I was
you. I'm in 130 puppy slow so I don't
know how much I have I have, I know, but he goes down, like a
touchdown Beth. Where, like you think the Jacks?
The Jags offense is good and they make a lot of Red Zone
trips and he gets a good share of those touchdowns.
Yeah. And his success rate last year
was actually quite good. I think he might be kind of an
underrated rushers seen as kind of this Breakaway threat, which
he is He had 263 rush yards over expected last year which is
second only to Nick Chubb had a Tony Pollard so that is
something he does really well. But he's also consistent, he's
really talented rusher. He finished sixth in success
rate last year. Just had an actual make sense.
He he seems like one of the most understood or misunderstood
running backs in the NFL, where I think people in our heads.
We think of them as this, like, receiving back explosive guy,
when he's really, he's been a better rusher.
I mean, he's nice. Opposed to explosive rusher but
he really profiles more as a better rusher than receive
imagine if he works. Imagine if he figures out the
body catching though like the wheels.
Imagine if he learned how to catch the ball crazy.
Yeah, he kind of is couldn't have been painted as like, maybe
like a chimera, but he's more of like a Dalvin cook.
That's I think that's, I think that's a great.
Let's talk about the range. Let's talk about that.
Yeah, great segue, he shows up and he's now 80th overall.
I'm actually kind of surprised. He hasn't fallen far.
Or I guess the Miami dreams are still living on people's heads
now. But yeah.
So I'll say one thing I'm cook. I think, you know, people are
talking about how he's washed and I get that from a lot of the
rushing statistics that you look at his age.
The totally makes sense. One interesting thing that Eric
eager, I believe brought up is that he's not washed in that his
speed has less than has left him.
Like he still is showing up as, you know, one of the ball
carriers on NFL next gen stats. I think it was the sixth fastest
of any Ball Carrier last year. So he's not well like I think
typically I when I think of guys is washed, I think of like Zeke,
like he's got no explosion left. He just looks done with Dalvin
cook. Really?
The problem is, he's not breaking tackles anymore, but
his speed still seems to be there.
And I think you could make the argument that that had to do
with his shoulder injury, like he's literally playing with like
you know a partially dislocated shoulder of the past couple
years and that could have something to do with it.
So I don't want to Early rule him out if he lands in a good
offense in this price stays around pick a tea.
But you know it seems like the outs to him Landing in a good
spot or pretty. Thin that I don't quite get, you
know, if he was at pick 100 or something, I think I'd be
drafting him at pick 80. I'm pretty out and I'll wait and
see in The Landings. But, yeah, my big concern is
there doesn't seem to be a market for him.
Like, there's clearly a market for nuke.
There doesn't seem to be like the marker for yeah.
Dalvin cook is what if one of their other running Inbox get
injured and maybe they'll think about it at lower money than
what he wants. Yeah, I think that's a high
percent, correct. I like looking at the success
rate staff from NFL next-gen, a lot.
And one of the reasons is that I think I think teams might care
about this, and he was horrendous last year.
In success rate, he was terrible Zeke was terrible.
These are like the worst guys in the league and the teams just
move on from them. And so I think like, yeah, You
can get up to speed if under the right conditions but if he's not
consistently doing what he's supposed to do, he's not like a
young fresh set of legs that they're going to bring in for
explosion plays. I don't think like he's he also
is terrible in Russia has ever expected.
So it turns of explosiveness, he was quite poor, he finished.
Just ahead of James Robinson behind Rashad white behind David
Montgomery and Richard's over expected.
Like, I don't know. Yeah, I think he might be
washed. He still had.
Like I think for plays last year of over 50 yards.
So I don't know, I guess it just like at a certain price.
We talk about it with Swift, right?
Like we don't project Swift have this massive role or even be
like that, great at football but you can break, huge plays on a
certain point. I think that's still attractive
if Coke still has his long speed.
Now I think it takes the right set of conditions, right?
Like if he's on the Dolphins I think I would take him at pick a
tea if he's on the box. I'm not taking a pic 80, right?
So I don't want anything in that like the team that he could
ultimately won with could absolutely crush this value.
So, yeah, the fact that there's no Market firm like what if he
like everyone's with like the Texans or like one of these like
really split backfield with like he wants to get paid, which is
another major concern for us, right?
Like he's not a Leonard, fournette situation.
Where if Most job opens up like I feel like for Nats going to
like fly to Cincinnati and just be like sign me dudes but cook
isn't going to do that. Cook wants to get paid so he I
think has higher odds of Landing somewhere grows higher odds of
Landing somewhere with an established starter.
You know, that he thinks he can compete with or something, you
know, I don't know. It just doesn't seem like he's
going to end up in like a clean situation.
Given that thing, that the thing I didn't pay him right away,
right? The thing that seems not great
about signing with the dolphins, is it feels like a chain would
be a better version and a version they paid for, you know,
the third round pick of what theoretically cook can still do
which is like going in a straight line really quickly.
I think one of those guys has to get hurt from Miami for the
Dolphins to sign Delvin. Like idea, they need one or two
of their running backs, get injured, forgot the ha Open and
the book, I think what he's playing for what it seems like
he's playing for is one of these more old school, in mind the
teams at that. Like once the pay running backs
and has one go down and I'll shit.
We, we need, we need our start running back.
Let's pay dominate million dollars or something.
Like, I don't even well, I don't even know what the good outcomes
from that are ya and the dolphin.
See, I don't, I think the Dolphins interest and maybe I'm
wrong about this. Someone can send me a link, but
I think this is like, Dalvin generated hype of him going the
Dolphins if it is photos, there's no like reports that
showing all the dolphins are interested in Dalvin cook.
I haven't seen that at least so that's why these like Wilson and
moster prices and even a Shane's falling.
Like I know people are, I get, why people are scared to draft?
Them. But a like I don't think the
Dolphins stuff is as likely as the market.
Thanks for Dalvin and B, I don't know.
Jeff Wilson Ramos are just strike me.
As you know, guys, that it might not be on the Dolphins this
year, but they're gonna find a way to a backfield once injuries
happen and like get you some point like Jeff Wilson is just
like the new Tevin Coleman where he's just going to show up on
like the 49ers this year and week 8 and have three
touchdowns, right? Like he's a capable like NFL
running back. Isn't that different to me than
the fournette? That honestly, at pick 190.
We're like, I don't know if he's on the Dolphins, but I don't
think he's getting paid 2 million guaranteed this year to
be the Dolphins 4th string. Running back if they sign Dalvin
cook, like the whole find a way to be relevant.
So, I still like those guys. My issue with those guys is that
if Cook signs there, they're going to be completely free.
So it's been tough for me to draft them, but they are getting
to the point where they're like they're close to completely
free. Yeah, I guess I'm not only
taking moster but we'll sin is getting to the point where it's
now I getting an eighteenth round.
Now I'm like yeah. See I think that's totally
better than Chase brown or someone who can raise be a
complete zero. All right.
Any other fallers here? I guess the Berkeley one.
Like do we? I don't see any serious.
Hold out risk with Berkeley so I'm kind of hand waving why not?
We can because I don't think he has any leverage.
I think that it would be great for him if they can negotiate.
Oh, she ate like a two or three-year deal, where he gets
some guaranteed money and like maybe they have some kind of
situation there, but I don't know.
Like, we've seen with the Le'Veon Bell situation that it
just this Holding Out for running backs, really, doesn't
work. And I just be, I'd be shocked if
Berkeley thought that that was his best route.
The only thing, the only thing about Bell did get offers from
the Steelers that were better than what's probably on the
table for Berkeley now. So like, The only like the big,
I think the big thing for him is that like he could just wait
until the deadline the sign. And if he still hasn't signed by
that point, then maybe he's like, maybe he's cheaper than
Yeah. See that.
Yeah, I just think of these hold out situations and maybe maybe
it's a bad take is like maybe his price will continue to fall.
So I should, I should wait, but like, one of the times the
amount of times that the guy who's threatening to hold out.
Actually folds out is like 1% and we remember those but like
this your Lamar you got crazy discounts in the Marge acts and
this year when the whole time I was just like what's the
precedent of a you know Elite quarterback just sitting out for
a season it just doesn't, it feels It could happen the
moment, but like it's basically the veon Bell run match our.
If I'm not wearing my shoes, the Chargers guy, Melvin Gordon,
Melvin Gordon, didn't he? Hold out until like, the Ford
game or some? Yeah.
Yeah, well instant, ignition Jackson.
Vincent Jackson once held out ten games, as the last one I
can. Remember of a guy he's holding
out for a long time in coming back.
Yeah, you guys have any concern about him like Berkeley not
being as kind of like explosive last year.
Do ya? He's just not very good anymore.
Yeah. Like given the the one to tell
our story to treat turn price or mid s.
They're like that's my big issue that's been wet for me.
I'm like why wouldn't I kind of take this discount and try to
push this discount? I, I believe my start was.
I went cup. Berkeley was sitting there, you
know, correlation right? I took JT instead and then
Berkeley came back around in the third and like, once that Ins
once I'm like I kind of want to see if this happens every time
like I why why am I think I'm done taking second round
Berkeley with cup now and maybe I think a couple more of these
third-round Barclays that feels way more fun.
Yeah, I also this this Davante Adams fall.
Dude, I don't care if Brian Hoyer is playing quarterback
with him. I'm I take I take I take atoms
like every time he's at the top of the queue, I like Adams a
lot. I want to mention with Berkeley
that I was looking into some of his Advanced stats last week and
it is interesting how he does kind of profiles, volume
dependent now, you know, and it on the Giants.
Like who's going to challenge him for, that volume.
Probably no one. But his success rate has been
pretty poor which has been something that look out for in
terms of goal line opportunities.
Again no one's really there to steal it from him so he's
probably got that locked down but his yards per outrun last
year was a career-low 0.94. That was worse than not.
She Harris is a rookie. He had 1.02 the year before
which was again, not good. So he early in his career he was
like a pretty impressive. Receiver 1.53.
As a rookie, pretty impressive. But he has not really been an
impressive receiver of the last two seasons.
I just like he kind of makes you start to make me a little
nervous, like I don't think he's washed the way he is, but he's
makes models. Someone is someone is a someone
is yes, a Kwanzaa bonding and the background there.
And I think one thing is this top side case, our God God
Connor one thing at this is like more, like human side.
Me tilting, I had Sake, One Berkeley going into week 17 in
the finals last year and the Giants scored.
I think like the scored like five goal line touchdown.
And he didn't get any of them. I was so mad.
Who did, who did just remember the Bellinger and ran a Nobel in
Germ? At Breda, you know, just right.
Lawrence confound our back in there?
Damn. I guess what you want to do?
You want a bag, defend you Jus here.
I actually do have some juicy stuff later.
But let me bat, let me beg the friend Berkeley first.
I think with Berkeley Eat the cake and I get that is
efficiency metrics were down last year.
You know, looking at PFF rushing grade, he was still top 15 in
that and I think there is this element with the Giants where,
when their best, you know, passively weapons are Richie
James and Darius Slayton that the offense can pretty much just
Zone in on Sake. One Berkeley is like really the
only offensive threat and that entire offense.
So the Giants offense wasn't terrible last year, but there's
certainly a lot of room for improvement.
So I can see Barclays efficiency just being a lot better next
year, if offenses is more capable and again, like I'm more
open to these like this guy is washed or falling off arguments.
If there's a legitimate threat in the backfield, and they've
done absolutely nothing to address that.
So, I don't know. That 3 does not walking into 10
touches a game or no, whoever placed in greatest.
Is that all that good? I mean, it's out of 100 backsies
top 15. So, I don't know.
Like, and it's hard to say to tree turn, like It's I do.
Like, I do want to defend bark a little bit as well, just in
terms of his rushing ability, like he, he's not a very
consistent rusher, but he is still a breakaway threat.
Like unlike Dalvin cook, who was - and rush yards over expected
last year, which is pretty concerning.
If you know, he's supposed to still be a breakaway guy.
Barkley, was not Berkeley was sixth in the NFL in rushing
yards over expected, just behind just Jacobs.
He was ahead of Derrick Henry like Like I think that part of
his game still appears to be there for him.
Like he's going to rip off some long runs and yeah, who's going
to who's going to eat into his workload?
Like but I do think, you know, if he's if you're like how much
is this guy really contributing to our offense?
Like how Dynamic is he really? You know that those questions
are probably in the minds of Joe Shane right now, you know, like
it doesn't make me feel great. Like I would love him to be in
the absolute prime of his career.
If he's on a Standoff with his team, right?
Yeah, I think the quotes, I mean, if you listen to Berkeley
quill it's like it's a very it's not like I'm gonna hold out, I'm
demanding more money. He's like please, it would be
nice sir. Like I maybe got paid a little
bit, like it's not like, it doesn't sound contentious or
confrontational, imagine how shitty it is for Berkeley that,
that, that gettleman got fired before.
He was up for a contract since ago, gave him five years
eighteen million You know, per year, fully guaranteed no team
out, he would have gotten, he would have gotten the biggest
running back contract in the modern NFL, you're completely
right? All right.
Should we talk to Dad for a boy? I mean dude, it's like
everything that could possibly be a disaster for him is a
disaster. He's hurt Kendrick, born is
playing his position. They're trying to sign DeAndre
Hopkins. They're eliminating his position
from the offense with with kiseki.
Anyways. It's just like every possible
thing is being like this guy should be drafted after run do
more and he's yeah, why isn't he?
Why would you take them over on, do more.
Because Clayton Tunes not a starting quarterback.
What, what I this is what I don't get, was that last year.
I'm sitting here on Jeju Island, right?
Like, no, he's actually still be like, he was good in the playoff
game. He was never it was never as
good as its Ben's follows. Yeah, I just don't.
It's like the thing that really got me to be like I'm actually
not re-evaluating my stance. I'm not going to be Bayesian
here. Is that this knee injury that he
suffered in like week 10 last year is still bothering him.
I'm that guy like slot wide receiver with the knee injury,
still bothering him six months later, strikes me as a.
And I think the only reason he is is ATP, is even here is
because he goes in a Range where wide receiver is dead.
I mean, why did like it's? So it's just people who have
three wide receivers and round nine around 10 and they're like,
I got to get another wide receiver.
I agree with, like, pretty much all he said, and I actually,
I'll give my. Did you take?
I'm definitely not above Market on Juju, agree with you, David.
It's a range where wide receivers are getting pushed up
because teams are desperate for a wide receiver.
There's been a huge drop off before that point.
I just think that like with Juju or punishing him for unrealistic
high expectations last year when he's basically always been the
same player of a wide receiver was very good at feeding zone.
Defense has, he can't go out and beat man and went down the field
like we thought he could early in his career.
He look at his metrics from last.
Year and it's just like a fine competent wide receiver, like
yards for outrun 1.7. That's 36 of 100 qualifying
receivers 18% targets for outrun.
That's, you know, similar range to someone like IU and Pittman
PFF. Receiving grade 39th out of 100
qualifying receivers, then have PPR points 9.1 again, 30:38 that
of 100 or so receivers. So he's just a guy and he's
being drafted as wide receiver, 50 as being Hello.
Just a guy and again it's not a range where I want to Target
wide receivers. I think the the biggest thing is
the health if we're concerned about his health then I think he
should fall and not be drafted. But I think like the juju sucks
thing is just a little overblown because we were so hyped on and
last year and he was just fine. And like I didn't take really
any of JuJu last year is completely out and must be is he
nice must be nice. Tell you when does suck, he does
husky nice to wear those really in doubt.
I'd ever taken me Rollin on duty.
Shit, poops are in Sky more. Hey, I was it on Sky War.
I wasn't at 20 percent Target for at run those sound like like
there's something there. Did you say 18 though?
18 is not good. It seems It's a 18, like it how
it probably depends on the, the society we're out of it.
No idiot, 18, 18 percent from from PFF, including the playoff
games. But yeah, again, 34 round Is a
stat where you want to factor in a DOT to some degree.
Because, you know, what is a target Worth?
Right? Like a JuJu Target with an eight
out of seven point one, which was His Highest.
Since 2019 is not worth a ton in terms of yards, after catch the
way. You know, he's been as of an
explosive since like a second year in the league.
So if you're not learning targets at a high rate like with
an 8 out of 7.1, I want to Target spur outrun of like Sent
the I don't want to be dealing with anybody under 20%.
There, it's just you can't your seven yards down field and you
can turn targets at any kind of a high rate.
Your learning targets like, a tight end.
Like to me, I think he does suck.
I think he can do a certain thing for your offense.
Sometimes, get open in the short area the field.
But as soon as someone else, either emerges, or signs with
Hopkins, they're like he just he has no real chance of Volume,
it's all just dependent on is there literally, no one else is
he just kind of the one guy they can?
They can feed targets to underneath and in an inefficient
offense and one of the things was before when he was like a
couple years ago, was that he did score touchdowns like yeah,
that is true. Definitely small sample size,
but treat touchdowns for the Kansas City Chiefs.
Last year is really bad. Well, look, they got to run
their, you know, their Merry-Go-Round play and like
hand. It off the Michael Burton like
they're, you know, it's an excuse to score touchdowns.
Yes, but they are not, thank you very much sounds.
And the fact that he only got treat them isn't great.
I mean, even Sky more even Sky more scored one by accident in
the Super Bowl. So I do think like, I mean, just
could jujube switch spots with Sony, like twice and just been
like, hey Darius you actually go stand over there.
Like, in the Huddle, Juju is submarine Canary?
Sony, because he doesn't know where he's supposed to be a Jew.
Jew wants to touch down, so he goes in Wasn't the lineup in the
wrong spot. Juju what we learned is Juju has
no dog is no willingness to steal stats from his teammates,
sad. Yeah you know he's not he's not
a great pick. This injury thing is the is
probably the most concerning part but we'll see, we'll see
what Hopkins stuff I do. Agree with Hopkins signs.
There he's dropping to probably like 130 140 so that's where I
would leave. Yeah, you might as well at
least. Wait, that out with that.
You guys have you guys psyop to yourself into taking DeVante
Parker yet? Just below with the logic of
like he's just starting wide receiver in the NFL and he's
there in the eighteenth round. I was literally about to sign up
myself until the Hopkins stuff came along.
Yeah. Oh, that actually made me sigh
up myself. He was, he won't.
Yeah, he's gonna he won't be affected.
I don't think, I don't think he would be affected.
I think. He'd still be the boundary guy.
I think they might be the boundary guy.
I think either Parker either. So he pointed toward either
Parker. Born is probably going to get if
they signed if they signed DeAndre Hopkins.
Like tae, kwon Thornton is not happening.
You don't think Jordan would play over Parker.
I think Bill loves his bats and I think we've also sigh opt
ourself with Thornton honest to God.
I think the fantasy Community has co-opted themself in a
Thornton for three reasons. First reason, he was never
expensive on DraftKings, so he was always easy to get in there.
Second reason he scored two touchdowns in a second game.
And people remember that and he was on your team and his points
counted. And I think, if you remove any
of those three factors, he's, he's cheaper and people care
less about him. Yeah, the other thing about
Parker is that he's somebody who literally, like, I hate find the
injury game but like he is somebody who is literally, I was
injured, literally always, yeah. So that could serve could be the
out for for what's-his-name man called one already.
Forgot his name. All right.
I'm very bad with names so that's maybe not.
Oh yeah, the thing with tae kwon is he's now going in the Jaden
read. Marvin Nims.
Range. And why would I take a guy was a
second-round pick in the NFL, who, I know was bad.
As a rookie verse, a guy who was a second-round pick in that a
fellow, who might be good with reading men.
So he was, he was pretty bad as a rookie was really bad there to
say, yeah. So I think the price, I don't
know, at this point. I think Thornton's fine, he when
he was 18th round free, I liked it but now I don't know.
I'm not really taking them. Let's talk, let's talk some
Stacks. Connor curious what you how
you've been approaching your best ball drafts.
This offseason, we're looking here at week, 17 game Stacks
with the most expensive teams on the left.
Kansas City Cincinnati? All the way to Tennessee to
Houston. Is there a particular week 17
game stack that you're targeting?
Are you even thinking about week 17 as much as everyone else
curious? How your eye.
I mean, I never, I never go into the draft.
It was like, oh, hey, these are the, these are the stocks that I
want. I try to like, let it fall into
place a little bit, and but I do find that the one that I'm
stacking up. The most is the Washington, a
San Francisco game and just Because I think there are
actually, there is actually quite a lot of good players in
that in that game. It's so easy and ADP to get that
gift and they all they all just fall together.
You know, you take, you take McLaren then you take iuq.
No, you take dots. And then to fix later, you take
you lied Mitchell. It just it just Falls and I am a
healt router. So like I do think he was really
good in college and definitely encouraged by his start last
year and So that's the one where I'm like, oh that that one feels
like 22 teams. Where if you get them right?
It really elevates your team in the regular season truth to the
playoffs. And then could be could be a
barn burner. And and then the rest of them
kind of what I do is just some kind of combination of like a
teepee value and like we're at where I think guys are good like
earlier rounds and then I just try to fill out the blanks and
made like rounds after that. Like on the why?
No, that's not okay. Sorry.
No, no go ahead on the Washington, 49ers game, I love
that one too. I've said my piece on how so I
won't dive in hand, but I would encourage people to play that
through Purdy right now because I don't think that his price is
going to last you know, you can get him still, the 14th round,
pretty much every time that's a reach but it's like kind of one
of those ranges where you're like I'll lock this up, secure
it 14:15 around. Purdy feels like We're going to
Trend away from that, right? I think so.
Like once there's more confidence, he's the starter.
I mean, I think people are already assuming how was the
starter and he's been hovering around, pick 200 for a while.
Whereas I think there's still people who believe Lance is
gonna come in and when that job still gets drafted.
So, Lance. Lance gets rough to the Head.
I think it's fluttering its flipped recently, but that was,
there's definitely, I mean bra, there was people drafting Trail
and sit like thick 90 in February and March, I'm aware.
Yeah, I remember that. I love tried.
We tried to warn them against that when I didn't, I didn't I
didn't, I told them, I told them, I told them you can and
yeah, you never know. You could, you could, you know,
we're in the famous words of David.
Kitchen. You know, you just never know.
You just never know. Yeah, anything else.
So the one thing that that jumps out to me, here is the Chargers
Denver game getting getting more expensive and now is the second
most expensive game after Casey sent Cincinnati.
It's not like a huge difference, right?
Basically every game from Chargers to Denver all the way
through, I don't know. Washington.
San Francisco is like similarly priced but It does strike me.
I just, I don't know. I think I get flashbacks to
Casey Denver last year and all the Denver Stacks.
I was building that were starting to believe in Denver
again is is maybe a little bit scary that said I think Denver
players are still fairly priced and I'm drafting them, but that
one did say that to me. Do you guys ever take Tim
Patrick? Yeah, when I take R Us?
Yeah, I thought because you can do it.
You can do, you can take Eckler in the first round.
You can take Keenan, and if you miss out on Herbert, you can,
you don't have to take Judy, you don't have to take Sutton, you
can take Russ then, you can take dulcich.
And then you can take mins or Patrick?
Yeah. Didn't they see alter the
market? The market of all seasons are
guarding. The market is completely
disregarding ACL tears because briefs always running back 11,
so it just doesn't matter. But I thought there was a Tang,
we're like the quality of how athletic they are is.
Really important for any Tremors.
Yeah, yeah. I'm like he may be.
It may be. I'm like discounting, I'm too
much as an athlete but like somebody who's like kind of like
it, not not the elite NFL at me. Sounds like would have should
have a much harder time recovering from a terror than a,
I mean, Michael Galloping like Greece.
Michael Gallup said, eight months into his ACL recovery.
He couldn't walk. So, you know, it feels it feels
like weed. Maybe gone to all in on the
modern medicine, bro. These guys, they're back better
than ever. Like, I get it.
Like, Tim, Patrick could very easily be caged Ambler.
We're like, we, I mean, could you Handler talking about Denver
wide receivers coming back? From an ACL tear?
We don't. Did he even play?
I mean, I don't even remember cage Ambler accruing, any
statistics for all my dead cage, Ambler teams, it is helpful that
Patrick tour in the preseason though.
Yeah, he'll be over a year. I moved from the east on
occasion Handler tearing his ACL in season, right?
2021. God damn, dude.
I drafted so much cage. A Handler and he had seven
fucking catches last year that this and that's that's six more
than Jameson Williams. How many, how many Alberto have?
The reason I'm sending in on Patrick?
And then I'll mix him in on correlated stuff.
And just my eighteenth round pick is that he has a dead cap
hit of over. Million dollars this year, they
sign into a huge contract extension that he tore his knee.
Yeah. So you really can't cut him.
I think they can cut them technically and that eat like 10
million of debt cap and save like less than a million.
So if he's like attrocious, maybe they would cut him but I
think he's going to be on the roster so I don't know.
Yeah. And I think you have like
Portland Sutton has really been speaking of ACL tears.
Another guy towards the ACL and seemingly never recovered.
Maybe That's an argument for Patrick or against it.
But man, son is not looked great, the past couple of years.
I think the athleticism, he had early in his career, it's is
maybe sort of passed him by where I could see.
Patrick just forcing his way onto the field at the expensive.
Something, if something just doesn't have anything left.
So I think it's a fine, it's funny.
They ran the 18 guy that catches two touchdowns and week 17.
Like that's yeah, he's a big deal.
It's very possible. Yeah.
When he's been healthy, they have always liked to play him
and get him on the field. So, yeah, we'll see.
I just know. I just know this ends with
Jared. Stidham throwing three
touchdowns to Adam Troutman and week 17.
Like there's just no other. There's no other way.
No, I hate Troutman on the troutman's on the Broncos.
Yeah, you're hot. He came over.
He came over with his guy. Sean Payton.
Shopping also brought over at Tony Jones.
It's like, he's bringing over really the, the words of the
Quest for notoriety, just whipping off the cream of the
crop from that rock? I mean, just wait, wait for
them, wait for them to cut Ross in for him to trade a second
round, pick for Taste of Mill. Like just you just purchased for
taste them straight up and says enough the Saints the same
thing. It's moving on to, I want to
make a point. I wanted to make a point on the
eagles, which is that we all sort of week 17 stuff.
Is clearly baked into ADP, all that is true, people clearly are
factoring that in. I mean, what is, what is the
spread in the total of that game going to be if Kyler Murray does
not come back at any point, if Clayton, to nor Colt McCoy is
quarterbacking that game? I mean, it could be, it could be
a spot where the Eagles are up, 20 10 at half.
And Like you get, you can see a story where like Jalen hurd's
post this monster season, the Deep, the all the things we say
are coming, true. The Eagles defense is a little
bit worse that the Eagles pass catchers are get more volume and
retain their efficiency. You know, AJ Brown is like a 30%
Advance. Rate is a first round pick.
It's like something we've never seen before and, and Eagle
Stacks are so common in the final and Jalen Hurd scores.
A teenager Brown scores 15 Dallas.
Carter gets 11 and Boston's got scores 21, yard touchdown.
And all these things are dead as shit.
And the final, all right, Davis, I need you to open your third
eye here because okay, anything, right?
Okay, opening it. It's if it's giant splay, the
the Eagles. Play the Giants in week 18,
okay, so heading into the Cardinals game against Clayton,
tune. Oh my God, I love the way this
is going Boston, Scott, someone I so they can't use him.
They neither giant killer fresh. Okay, okay, you get, you get the
Eagles just roll the, you know, deposit Smith catches a
touchdown Jalen, It's rushes in one you know, Richard Penny
scores a touchdown but then second half DeAndre Swift
averaging. A 15% snap share just gets
thrown out their scores three touchdowns to Salt away the
game. We so that was that wasn't
exactly the way I thought you were going to go.
I thought you were gonna go with basically the Eagles effectively
rest, their starters, as 15 and a half Point favorites against
the Cardinals, but that would mean DeAndre Swift going nuts.
If you start, is if the start is arrested, So we got, we got the
same place eventually? Yeah, I think I think I just
opened my third and fourth eyes to the Andres whip this.
So you need in week 17, the prop ball, other thing Davis with
your story is that, you know, that, that General Narrative of
the Eagles is absolutely destroying a team in the first
half and playing their backups in the second half.
They basically did that all of last year in the Eagles players
still got there. So that's almost like the
Baseline, but they weren't they weren't, they weren't on the
teams that they were not. The guys, you need in week 17
last year. The eagle that was hurts.
Probably towards getting injured, but I see what you're
saying. You can play the Giants like bad
and week 17. Last year they did, they did it
hurts. Even was I, I had a lot of that
Eagles receivers and they just know many Incubus bad.
Oh no, that was the game against the Saints where they sucked.
They were awful. The whole team played shit and
they said, yeah. Okay.
All right. I gotta go look, yeah.
All the tweets are people said that like meant you and jail.
There's zero difference, between Minshew and Jalen.
Hurd's people deleted all those. After like okay no they were
yes, they were the New Orleans Saints, they scored 10 points,
they scored 10 points, it was they did, they did nothing
Gardner, Minshew was 18 at 32 there was one passing touchdown
and it was to AJ Brown had for 497 and touchdown.
Devon, Ted 94, 115 miles Sanders, who was a huge win if
you took them last year, pretty high Advance rate player 12 461
no targets. So Six points from miles, a in
the final. I do think that these kind of
things can be useful in that like when you look at actual
games like because think things are decided by one game are
sorry like by singer games and week 17 like how Wild and like,
weird. They can be like, like not not
to like, who knows what could happen?
Like, could be anything. Stop now, you're still just
don't know but Yeah, man. I mean, the speaking of people
resting their starters and week 17, week 17 was so fucked last
year, Derrick, Henry, and the entire Titans, like starting
offense, don't even, don't even know.
Do we can't even talk about? Derrick?
Henry resting, 15, not a, I had him on one of my bbm finals,
bullets and item my special team as well, absolutely brutal.
So yeah we just we just don't know.
That's why you take Malik Willis, he's going to be
starting week 17 this year. Oh my God, can you imagine Ajan
if Malik Willis Like a Phoenix Rises From the Ashes to be
relevant and it's a football, but that those I think that does
raise. The question of like, who are
the who were the teams were like, you get this super cheap
stock late, and it doesn't matter all year.
And then we 17 to just as free game, where the Patriots and the
Patriots are the team, right where it gets really good one.
Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
Panthers have b1i denominator as well.
Oh my God. Yeah, Texans Texans.
Texans Titans it's one of the four.
Okay, yeah I mean we're really getting into nerd them here but
2023 is an El Nino year so the weather is going to be nuts
anywhere Coastal, it's gonna be insane.
So a lot of these outdoor games I mean people also have memory
wipe this but to week 16 last year, not week 17 but with 16
there was a polar vortex across the United States.
There were Games. There were multiple games with
totals at, like, 32. All these outdoor games were
like ruined. They were like, they were, like,
no one scored any points. There was no forward passes.
Imagine if that happened in week 17, how different the context
would have been, you know, and that text and sightings game is
indoors. I don't know.
I'd say it's you know you just you just never know.
But it's something. I do point out a lot right?
I think about it a lot. Yeah.
Like maybe maybe the fact that it's indoor/outdoor just won't
matter this year. Now.
What how does the El Nino effect thing?
Iran. Is that it was it me?
I treasure will be modeled, it'll be.
No, no, the opposite. It means precipitation is nuts.
It means it causes across the us but I thought it was like a
milder winter. No, well, so the temperatures
will be higher, the temperatures have the possibility to be
higher but it causes crazy precipitation.
So we could have extra snow extra hail, extra rain.
And a lot of these out especially the coastal games,
there could be like it could be in precipitation for well, like
so, do you remember that crazy Bears, a lot of our lesson.
I have never been outside. That's okay.
You remember, you remember the Bears 49ers game in week one
last year Lansford? Yeah yes.
I mean, imagine imagine if you draft, imagine if you draft a
stack and you're like these dudes, can't even see we got
Justin field slipping. It's like it's a good at like
weather weather has the possibility to ruin.
Best for Mania for, you know, just completely skew the
results. Like some super high Advance
rate stack passing stack, Chiefs Bangles gets played and it's 47
degrees and there's driving rain like that game sucks for
fantasy. Yeah.
So what do we do? Just take only dumb games.
I Target a lot of dumb games. I take I take like CJ Stroud,
John. Mechi Nico Collins at the end a
lot. Yeah I like unironically take a
lot of guys playing and domes or retractable roof spots.
Or to sound smart. Would that work to like certain
games? It works for it, won't get it
won't be cold. Obviously, they would be it
could be really rainy which is a finding this is like this is
like the 900th level of things to think about like winning
Fantasy Football. But it is, it is something I've
been in the it is in the back of my mind.
Hayden Hayden here to back us up on this one.
So, yeah, Hayden was the originator of this last
offseason. He was the first guy to Do the
close your eyes, imagine it's 17 degrees across the United States
of America and all the outdoor games have been.
It was the week before he totally blew it.
He totally weird Hayden. Dude, he doesn't get it, bro.
It's tough to like which are did the roads 17 that I like I got
it. I got it.
Pulled up. These are almost I did.
I typed up a Twitter thread on this the other day and I was
like you know what? This is actually two virgin for
quitters. Like this is, this is better for
a BP chasing. This isn't a good thread one
second, I gotta go. I gotta go find it, okay?
So they endure gigas Indianapolis right?
Why it's Lions Cowboys Titans Texans?
It is later, Raiders Colts and Packers Vikings are the indoor
games. There's only for these are all
really portable games. Yes.
If you really want to get into the weeds, technically the
Seahawks game is. Kind of domed.
They it is it is Half Dome to prevents about 70% of the
precipitation from getting into the field because it's in
Seattle. And so if it was all the way
open, the seats are basically rust every single year and they
have to replace them so maybe that helps a little bit but
That's that's what my research turned up, okay?
I mean titans. So this chart, again Titans
Houston stands out is like by for like, you can take well
Derek Henry, obviously is expensive and Damien, Pierce is
somewhat, but you can take like, six Tennessee, Houston pass
catchers. I don't even know.
You take on Tennessee, to be honest, that's probably bad
strategy but but like you can stack them in, you can take, you
can take Aqua. Yeah, perks of CoQ10.
And then grab two or three Houston pass catchers.
It's not, you could do it like very easily.
The and thing is, is like those could be good pics.
Anyways, like the Houston picks specifically, like, if Stroud is
like a c plus B, minus quarterback anyway.
Those could like you could have a huge win anyway with this week
17, spot of like this awful like to bad defense is playing
against each other. Now obviously, the head coaches
of these teams are like very much like Damien Pearson Derrick
Henry, Are combining 447 touches and that game regardless of
whatever happens but they could be good picks anyway.
Yeah that's that's true. I like this cheap offenses.
You can stack up for for nothing with your last couple pics.
What were the other look dumb games again?
Dallas like ballast control, it is the one that I'm like when I
get that when I when I start like sometimes I'll start saying
Brown Pollard Just For The Vibes or something like that.
But just like you know you take you take you get CD, you get
whoever, you take Dak, you take laporta, you take munch on it,
you're just like bring it gives in there too, you can get you
just, it feels so good, man. You're like, it's just like II
got the winning ticket right here, Jameson Williams.
Maybe catching like his sixth and seventh passes the year 17.
If you're a bull I'll take something that's projected stats
from last year. It's really hard to get to six
or seven but there's a lot of been good if you can get him
over his fancy but yeah you can get him to 16 targets like eight
touchdowns so All right, Sam. You have to go do we do we want
to keep vibing or do we want to get out of here?
I think. I think we should.
Let's give our best value takes unless any other all, open it up
any last comments on on Stacks Connor.
I'll give you the for you haven't been talking about, you
know, as much as we have. So any other Stacks that you
want to give the people Let me see.
So talk about Washington which that one was inside.
Yeah, on draftable. Now that it's outside.
Now that I found it. So you have to see, I don't like
that one, looks fun as well, and we're like they're one of those
teams were they actually have a good few good players and people
say, oh no, you can't take them. They have too many, good
players. Oh and like okay well what if
the offense is just good, then And yeah, Gino Gino.
Yeah, what if the offense just Good Sam?
Does that make you nervous at all?
Yeah, you know. Betting, on Gino Smith, having
two years in a row as always. Okay, I got I got some breaking,
I got some breaking news out Spielman on Twitter reports,
I've seen mentioned that this should be a super El Nino year.
You're gonna break that. Like super El Nino.
That means, that means every week 17, game turns into Justin
field sliding down the field like an airplane.
All right, I guess I'm drafting more lines.
Mmm. All right, Cole to see halls.
I dropped a lot of Anthony Richardson.
That's in its own, right? Yep.
That's in a down. I died.
Okay. All right, Connor we do this
every week. Give our best closing line
values by August, which players going to have the biggest gain
and closing line value. Who is your, who's your pick?
Can I'm not prepared. So can someone you guys
something? I'll go.
I'll go first, excellent, I got one.
I got one. I haven't used this one yet.
Kenneth gain. Well, when it just when it
becomes clear, when everyone, when everyone's third eye
opened, you guys one last week, use that one.
Okay, I will use IQ, I cheated, I will use Brushy rice, Rashi
rice will get the training camp, he'll get.
And people be like, oh yeah, he's better than Scott Moore.
So let's let's do rushy rice. Ice.
Can I go? Yeah, go for it because mine Sky
more. I think Sky more hey one of us
is going to be right? Oh man.
Well you can have a direct influence on this lab.
How much you like them off throughout the offseason to?
So this might be like insider trading.
So listen. That's that's partly true.
But I don't think people are going to listen to me again on
Sky more. So so we're going to find
someone who didn't Scout tout Sky more last year, which is
gonna be hard to find because the whole industry was basically
in on him and then he busted the front page of the Kansas City
Chiefs team page on the athletic right now.
Is a picture Sky more wearing number 24, which is still
terrible. Please change your number.
And the title is the young Chiefs player.
Who is impressing Patrick Mahomes be click into?
The article is a section at jet, it's about Justin Ross.
Is that the the first mini section is called more appears
to be ascending talking about how he basically is the favorite
for the juice, mr. Schuester role.
I think the fact that we are still drafting Judas misused,
Stir. Well, favorite for the juice
with rooster roll blowing me away.
I know. But look wow, that really no,
none of that. We know how gross this ranges at
wide receiver. There's like usually a couple
teams in the draft that are sort of desperate for a wide receiver
for wide, receiver 5. If they have a gross wide
receiver for it's just a natural part of the board for a wide
receiver, with Buzz to be able to jump up a couple rounds.
So, I'm taking right now in the 10th round, but I can't see
again rising to that he frowned range pretty easily.
Yeah. Fair enough.
I don't like it but I do take him.
Yeah, I'll take him Stacks. I don't know.
I still like maybe I'm wrong about this.
I still like or she rides better just because Of what happened
last year with sky, but that Gap is getting bigger.
I guess it's just because of offseason, kind of type stuff
around Sky first or she, but I don't hate it.
I mean, one of these Kansas City receivers is, is way too cheap,
right, right. They have to be.
Well, that was sort of the thesis last year and none of
them were. Yeah, that's true.
Fuck I thought I'd learned that let's move.
Okay, I'll give mine. I'm gonna go.
With. Deciding between two Green Bay
pass catchers. I'm gonna go with Jaden read, I
almost chose Luke Musgrave. I don't think people are really
ever going to buy into rookie tie-downs.
I'll go with Jaden read. I just think that, you know, the
Romeo dub stuff, I guess you can.
It depends, you know, it's a glass-half-full situation.
You can look at his rookie year and say he got on the field.
I almost I almost chose Romeo dubs.
Yeah. And I know that there's, you
know, smart people that that are in Them.
And, you know, I listen, there's good people on both sides,
there's good people on both sides, the Romeo dubs debate.
But man, I don't know, I think just the signal of them, taking
Jaden read in the second round, kind of shows to me, they
weren't that happy with what dubs did last year.
And I don't think it's a signal about Watson given, how well he
played down the stretch dubs, like rookie your stats or
they're totally. Who would their third, who would
their third wide receiver have been if they tie on.
Going to, I'm going to be a pendant here.
Because who would their third wide receiver been if they
didn't take Jane? Yeah, I don't know some more eat
or a yeah. Like, it would have been, it
would have been. It would have been a no one.
It would have been a nobody, which is fair.
But it's still second round. Draft capital for Jaden, read
verse fourth round draft capital for Romeo dubs.
And I'm just gonna, I'm gonna break the tie and in favor of
the draft capital and dubs. His rookie year was like just on
the margin of like you could squint at it and be like, that
was pretty good. But for a guy who was day three
draft Capital, I'm kind of just believing that they don't really
think they found something in dubs besides just, you know, a
fine third wide receiver to have on the roster.
I don't think it's anything special, so I'm team.
Jaden read over Romania doves especially when there's a
three-round gap in there. Atp's.
Like, I just, I just don't get that with the draft Capital that
one of those guys. A lot of the closing one value.
It can often be Be like some rookie who is going like and
like you go to training camp and they just have this constant
Buzz of this guy looks great. This guy looks amazing and and I
you probably have more likelihood of that happening for
for read on am from then do abs. And so I did.
Thank you for for taking deer time.
I did I did finance my pick and so I'm going for a Rishi Rashid,
Shaheed and all. That is.
Good one. Yeah, that's a good one because
like the I guess the argument in favor him so he was the NFL
equivalent of a walk-on last year of like completely on
drafted a kind of remember the name of the where he went to
college and then for four weeks at Weeks 14 through 18 he
actually got into wrote of his had like an 88%, right?
Share like so the highest on the team and then like somewhat low
sample size on E82, routes, but and tree yd /.
Great run. I'm like he's gonna walk.
Will take 160. And like, that's, that's kind of
the range where you're not really, you're not really
talking as much about starting wide receivers and the other out
you have there, is it smuggest GERD?
And it's my Michael Thomas is almost ready to practice.
He's almost ready. It's calming like Like we're
gonna go practice any day now. Yeah.
Cool. Alright, awesome stuff guys,
what do we have going on this week at legendary upside pad?
I'm working on a article that I'm hoping to get out mid week
this week on success rate. I've mentioned it a million
times. I'm going to actually publish
the article on it. Now got Underdog rankings got
DraftKings rankings got dynasty rankings, the collaborate with
Davis and Jacob Sanderson on. So yeah, check out legendary up.
Sighs still get $30 off your first year at legendary
upside.com. Surely those to our podcasts.
We really great list of those over the weekend with.
I got a couple more on Jake. Couple couple more.
We might even. We might even knock to out this
week. We'll see.
Got that coming. Yeah, I need to, I need to go.
I need to tweak a couple things in mind that move.
Kyle pits up and Mark Andrews about them, but them were too
low in my initial and so I'll get updated and I'm going to
working on Underdog rankings this week as well.
So I need to get those finalized.
Awesome Connor. What about you?
Anything? I know you're busy with other
These days but he really wrote of his articles or researcher
working on these days or I'm not sure when it's going to come out
and but we'll start to work on FF PC stuff and I don't have a
lot of ffp see stuff like where where the main advantages on FF
b c and last year, one of the big things is no shock to
anyone. You do really have to prioritize
the the tight ends and we'll probably update that with at the
new lower prices, same thing. Of quarterbacks.
And I guess just most of it. Most of the content is about
Underdog so trying to fit a FF PC at Niche and best ball.
And but yeah, we'll have to get through some stuff in and work
before I get that out. Yeah, awesome stuff.
Well, thanks for joining us again.
Connor that was a ton of fun. We will be back next Monday.
For Connor, for Davis for Pat, this is Sam be back next week.