Today on ship chasing, we're hopping in the Best Ball
tournament on FFPC. It's $125.00 entry, $300,000 top
prize. If you guys watch the Pros
versus Joe's stream on Sunday night, you're kind of familiar
with this format. Of course, we got the Titan
Premium, we got the couple flex spots, and it looks like we're
going to have a friends and family draft here today with
lots of familiar faces in this draft room.
It's ship chasing with Pete, Ben, and Pat.
Let's do it. Pat Fryer, Helmo Anita Handjob.
Fix your sight. Jamar Alpha play Chase.
You can't handle the heat. It looks like we're.
Finally, at this point, you're right.
All right, what is up, fellas? We got one more spot available
if someone wants to come dance with us in this contest.
How are you guys doing? Doing good.
How you guys doing? Good, good, yeah.
It's been a busy day and now excited to draft.
I do feel like a little bit in the groove having done the pros
versus Joes Gratch. I don't know if you feel
similar, like I'm not coming in completely blind to this.
For sure, yeah. And I had done one with Draco
over on my YouTube channel as well already, which was helpful
I think when I went to the Pro versus Joe's.
But yeah, no, I've been too. So I'm I'm all the way there.
No, I mean it's definitely a different format.
I've been on, well, I've been on the FFPC since early June when I
entered one of these and completely forgot about it and
auto drafted. So that didn't prep.
Oh, you're. You're locked.
It didn't go completely auto drafted.
Beautiful. Oh yeah.
We should mention we did. We did an AMA yesterday on
Reddit, a ship chasing AMA that was quite fun.
Check that out. We all had some some good useful
answers and insight there. I loved your guys's answers.
I I always go way too long with my answers, but there's a lot of
really good stuff in that for people who are interested.
Yeah, Ben was like, they'd be like, hey, like, quick question
about this. And then like seconds later, 4
paragraphs from Ben, like how the hell is he doing this?
Yeah. You let the figures fly.
The best one, we are off to the races here there.
I should say in 2 minutes this draft is going to start.
So we got this filled. We got the 12 spot here.
OK, time to live. I was.
Going to say the the funniest part of the AMA because yeah.
And we, we didn't like collaborate on like who's
grabbing what question? I mean, some were directly for
one of us. So that made it easy.
But the funniest one was Gretch and I both responding to a Chase
Brown one at the same time. And someone was just like Chase
Brown. That's all.
I'll take my question off air. And I just wrote yes.
And then Gretch wrote like 2 paragraphs.
But seriously, Chase Brown? Here's why.
And then I got done and I hit send.
And then I saw Pete's answer pop up and I was like, oh, that was
the right answer. Apologies to the guy because,
you know, we were in there for like an hour and a half.
I, I checked, I was, I pulled it up like four or five hours later
and someone had like just asked a question of like, what's going
on with this Malik neighbors ADP?
This can't possibly work, can it?
Like you're for that question. You're about six hours too late.
I did actually answer that. You.
Know I our contact at Reddit was like, whenever you're done, go
ahead and close it up and I had forgotten to do that and and so
I went back edited the post closed it up and then I saw
there was a couple extra comments and that one was
intriguing to me and I wrote a long reply about Malik neighbors
that I think was good. I almost shared it on Twitter
because I was like, I was you got to put this in the sub stack
or something like this is a good place you should.
You should got to repurpose that.
Yeah, the it's funny because my, in my Deposit Kingdom video I
did last week, like my favorite pick in every round, I did Malik
Neighbors as my third round pick.
And that has been by far the most polarizing one.
Like lots of the rando commenters coming out to get on
me for that one. Daniel Jones stinks, the
offensive line stinks, you know, rookies like blah, blah, blah.
That is. And then I did, I did a piece
today for Fantasy Life looking at the Yahoo ADP and you can get
Malik Neighbors in the sixth round.
And I was like, guys, he's my favorite pick in the third round
on underdogs. So you imagine how I feel about
him in the sixth round on Yahoo. That's just one of those where
like I'll never know what it feels to draft in the sixth
round, 'cause I would just draft him in the 5th or maybe even the
4th, just like I'm getting him so.
Yeah, I'm not. I'm not gonna try to push this
guy to that round. Yeah, that's that's actually
crazy. Also say this is a 20 round
draft technically I believe. How much time do you have if
this draft gets done in an hour? Some of us have to go take care
of our child at a hard out. If this draft gets done in under
an hour, I will give a gift card to whatever team gets voted as
the best in the chat. So that's an incentive for
everyone. Well, I'll do a $50.00 gift card
to the store. You can buy an exposure blanket.
You can get whatever you want if us collectively can get this
draft done by 4 O 5:00 PM Eastern.
I saw Josh Downs if you buy an exposure.
Blanket, we'll give you another gift card.
How do I buy, how do I buy an actual exposure blanket into my
exposures 'cause I haven't been taking a lot of Josh Downs and I
saw that quote from Chris. How are you not I'm taking Josh
dance this dude cuz I. I don't take a lot of receivers
in that range. I'm really idealistic about how
I'm building receivers early and then but I've I've taken some of
him, but I was like, man, I don't think I even have a 4%
blanket and I definitely need to get there.
I have a 14% quilt. Really good.
I'm also really concerned about the passable, even that offense.
Well, the other thing is I have, I don't even have, I don't not
sure I have a sham. Wow.
On, on Michael Pittman. Yeah, I've got a 1% towel.
So. My bikini.
I don't take Pitman, but my I, the RPO research I did last year
and the fact that they ran so many RPOS even after Richardson
got hurt. We're up, but.
All right, Puka, JT Barkley, the Titans.
Who do you like? Definitely Puka.
I wonder if we should grab La Porta 'cause I don't think we'll
get an elite tight end at 3-4. Do you guys think structurally
speaking we should maybe go? I don't like 30 second clocks in
these. Cause the the chasers are gonna
want the tight ends more than the running backs.
Right and especially tight end premium, I think it's gonna be
tricky to get and we can take multiple tight ends if we get a
price we like later. But I I kind of like this spot
from the 12th to get I like. It.
Yeah, I should. Yeah, Sorry, Go ahead.
We were talking about Josh Downs.
Well, I was saying. RPO point they were a second
they they threw the second most passes off RP OS per per
football reference last year. And the the whole write up in
research on that was that it concentrates targets to the to
the wide receiver one because of the lineman are run blocking and
you can't get to your progression.
So you like if you pull the ball and it becomes a past attempt,
it has to be the first read. And I believe that's why Michael
Pittman saw a big, I do too. Yeah, I I agree.
And so, yeah, I just think Down's a super good outside of
that. Yeah, yeah.
My concern is though with the lack of overall pass volume if
you are going to be second in total.
You know passes in RP OS as well that that like even if downs is
super, super good in the rest of that subset that there's only
like 400 other pass attempts and it's.
Like, but that's that assumes that they're going to give the
RP OS at the same frequency to Pittman when Downs was really
just as good as him before the knee injury.
And that was without him getting all that RPO stuff and was a
rookie and is now going to second season.
I think it's very fragile to assume that Pittman's going to
get that work again. It's almost like running back
carries or something where it's sort of like it was scheme
touches in a sense. And so I'm betting on the chaos
of like, I bet he gets less of those scheme touches.
Even if there was a bunch of scheme touches in the passing
game, more of them are going to go to Downs this year than they
did last year. Some of the per route stuff for
the Dolphins would speak to this.
We're like, yeah, I always talk about how Tyreke's easily the
the top per out run guy and then Waddle's still way up there.
So I think they both get some of it.
They're another team that's very high on RP OS and I think you're
right. Like it doesn't just have to be
the number one passing. Option, it's the number one won
that play. It's on the play.
It's like the only guy you can run an RPO it.
Just tends to be the guy who's the easiest quick winner, but it
might be downs. Downs might be the quickest
winner on the team now. Like for real?
Yeah, yeah, I didn't get more Downs.
Regardless, I think he's really good.
I was super into him as a prospect last year.
And then hearing Ballard like they're like, what do you think
about the receiving core? He starts to talk about other
players. He's like, but I, I just really
want to point out that Josh Downs is like better than all
underline Josh Downs. I took him in like 3 slows this
morning. After I saw that I was like I
got to get more downs. And the pricing is just we, we
have, you know, we've seen this in years past with like we kind
of did this with the Broncos couple years in a row where we
were like, it's a Judy year and it was a sudden year.
It's a sudden year and it was a Judy year.
And it's just like a very, very, very confident, you know, target
pecking order that we have that is not in line with how how
different these players are in skill level.
Like, and I have a lot of Eddie Mitchell too, because he's he's
pretty cheap and like if you look at more.
Of him. Yeah, if you look at the ceiling
outcomes like Eddie Mitchell could easily be the best wide
receiver on the team. Probably not as much of the RPO
stuff, but like just winning downfield in a way that you know
pigment downs aren't. That's why I take Mitchell over
Downs. I'm like.
Better I I take Mitchell over Downs too, because he goes
earlier and the ceiling is so juicy and the weekly ceiling and
everything. But Downs is cheap, man.
Like it's you can, you can get both.
I get both a lot because I take, I take a lot of Richardson.
So I have a ton of like Richardson, Mitchell Downs
teams. We're definitely not on underdog
anymore. Only three wide receiver picks
in the second round, Marvin, Harrison, Drake, Lennon, Olave.
We see four tight ends go off the board after we take Laporta,
Kelsey, McBride, Kincaid and Andrews and then four running
backs. Henry a couple double running
back starts Taylor to the Bijan team, HN to the Breece team and
then the one hole went CMC Barkley and then kicks off pits
there at the start. So I should have some fun team
shaping up here. Yeah, one part of that down
thing that you just mentioned at the end, not to completely go
back to it, but you, you take a lot of Richardson I, I'm
underweight on Richardson, I'm underweight, all the elite Q BS
in general and. It's hard to be overweight.
Yeah, I, I've, I've been kind of like pulling stuff towards Lamar
recently and then I'm like, am I underweight Alan now?
And then I've been underweight Mahomes, even though I take a
lot of Kelsey Worthy and Rice, but I don't end up with Mahomes
a ton. Those are the ones I'm forcing
in Hertz and Allen and Lamar. You don't have quite enough
Hertz. I think I'm even with Hertz, but
I should definitely be overweight in the fourth like
but you with the tight ends and with trying to stay strong wide
receiver and with not completely ignoring running back early like
it's it's difficult. It's honestly difficult.
I was going to say, especially with Stroud falling, because
he's the one that I feel I can get and I like the price on and
I'm still getting some of him where it's like it's almost like
QB window now. It's not elite QB because he's
like going so you can get him at like pick 80 and it's like, all
right, well, that's a different bet at pick 80, totally.
But you never get Richardson to fall that far.
It just doesn't happen. No, it really doesn't because
you can take him unstacked so easily because you have the two
options. He's a running quarterback.
If you only get one of Downser Mitchell, that's totally fine.
So and and like, if you were to end up with naked Richardson,
it's it's not the plan, but it's not like the end of the world.
So and I also take Richardson a lot with Kelsey.
You know, I take him with flowers, I take him with
Andrews, I take him to cover when I've got a weapon of elite
quarterback and I don't get the elite quarterback.
I like pivoting to Richardson a lot.
All right. We are about to pick on the turn
here. We see is that Austin Eckler, am
I seeing that right? Austin Eckler was drafted in the
third round, All right. That's an auto pick, so somebody
put Eckler in their queue. Is that the Davis Maddox star
method? This is why, why, why was he
start? Why was he start?
I don't. Know it's the Davis Maddox star
method. It was no a different star
method. It was the same method.
It's the Jay Timber Star method. So we're about to pick your ETN
falls is kind of the is one of the ADP values there is like
Pacheco, Iuke Evans, Ingram, Josh Allen, neighbors, Devante.
I mean, neighbors is pretty fun. Yeah, neighbors I, I would love
to take is one of these. We don't have a we do.
Have a I'll put neighbors in the queue.
I I really like ETN at this price relative to some of these
other ones too. I mean when Eckler comes off the
board. What about the other receivers
available? Yeah, you're looking at the Ayuk
Evans, Devante Smith. What?
Oh, oh, we went on auto. No, we're go away.
OK, OK. No, we're good.
We're good. I I turned it off.
Yeah, yeah, just. Think I'd be Evans or Smith but
digs is the I'm OK with or dig I think I'd be Evans or Smith.
I'd be OK with ETN though, if you want to go that route.
I think we can go Etni think we'll get, we're feeling like
we'll get some. We're 2D2 stores through four.
I mean, yeah, it's a little. Different world over here let's
go ET let's. Do ETN.
I'm. I'm jumping on your.
I like what you're doing here. I wanted to receive it for the
record. We might get avalanched.
Well, we, it, it is, it is a tough calculus, right?
Because we, we talked about this when we did our preview last
week of kind of the FFPC landscape and now we're in our
main event draft right now for you YouTube members, we've been
posting mini sods. The first two are up through 4
rounds and there's definitely a a choke on running backs and
where a lot of the really good running backs come in a range,
you really want to be taking wide receivers.
And I've kind of like the builds where you get one of these
running backs. We did Breece Hall, spoiler
alert in our our main event there and I feel like it's just
opened up so much flexibility to us.
It doesn't preclude us from taking one of those running
backs, but it I just think is the path for for the best
structural building here. And also you only have to start
two receivers. I mean I do I understand like
the avalanche is a concern, but if you get stuck in an avalanche
in these rooms you can pivot to attacking flux other ways.
Especially with Titan premium as well.
Like if if wide receivers go off really heavy here, we might be
looking at tight end picks that we like at the 5-6 turn
potentially which are options as well.
I think there's other outs in FFPC build structure as well.
Yeah, I just don't love ETN at this price.
Yeah, I just would rather. Take.
We're getting guys going at the 2-3 turn on underdog versus a
guy going get the 4-5 turn on underdog, and to me, I'd just
rather have the receivers of the two. 3:00 but that but those but
those AD PS are entirely because of the being.
Able. Not entirely.
I mean, it's only Evans. Who?
Were. The other receivers, Devonta
Smith, went in the middle of the third round.
Smith's going on like the two three turn, I mean.
We didn't have an option of. Drafting.
Oh. Oh, I thought.
Smith So it was only Mike Evans and then Dick.
Yeah, OK. Pete mentioned Mike Evans, but
he also mentioned. Like DJ Moore.
Is a guy that's split, Yeah. Oh, DJ Moore.
DJ Moore was the one he could have taken.
OK. Yeah, I think Evans.
I mean, I don't even love Evans, but you know, he's pretty strong
wide receiver pick and you just kind of stack, stack wide
receivers would be my preference.
Yeah, that's fair. ETN is like he's fine.
KMC in the chat said, would you ever consider McBride at 2:01
for the week 17 correlation or is Laporta just a very different
tier? We talked about like I, I'm
probably going to have McBride this month, Titan one.
I don't think it's a different tier at all.
And I just wanted to tell Kim, I think that's an awesome strategy
and you should definitely do that if you get that
opportunity. I wish we we would have talked
about doing that. I've.
Been fine with it because it's especially in this format where
week 17 really still matters a ton.
It's not like the three-week Sprint format like in the main
event. And I mean, I'm not as high on
McBride as you are, but if he hits, he's going to hit an
extremely friendly way for Titan premium.
Like if he hits, I think if you're like a little bit more
McBride skeptical, making sure you're tilting your McBride
exposure towards the most PPR you can is, is probably a good
way to, you know, not have a huge bag and still be happy if
he goes off. And I know this is the dumb way
to talk about it, but it is. You're like, if you're doing
your one draft here and McBride's your guy, like take
McBride right here, you know, we're gonna end up doing a
handful of these. We're gonna have a bunch of main
events. And we actually talked through
this similar concept on the 1st or the 2nd Main event mini Sod
episode, where we're thinking, because McBride's ADP has a
range where he falls kind of smack dab in the middle of round
two, you're gonna have a lot of cracks at him if you're doing
multiple drafts. And so that's the only thing
where it's like Laporta, you're only going to have cracks at him
at basically the 1-2 turn. So if you want any Laporta,
that's when you have to grab. It and somebody was asking in
the AMA yesterday about, you know, if you only have a couple,
a couple shots at the BBM, like they, they, he had said that he
kind of feels a little discouraged because he's going
up against a bunch of people that are Max entering and all
these things. And Pete, you had some, some
good advice for him. I, I went with a little bit of a
different angle than than you did, which your advice was about
like content selection and stuff, which is really strong
advice as well. But mine was like, I actually
think in some ways there's an advantage to that where the the
150 drafters are balancing portfolios.
We're intentionally not taking our favorite picks sometimes
because we are doing some of the things that you just said.
I think when you're drafting against those people, we talk
about this, they're not going to steal your quarterback and and
then snipe in that stuff. There must much less likely to
take an unstacked pocket passer and and wind up blowing up your
stack. You it's almost like a a nice
thing to draft against badge Bros because they stay in their
lane. You know, it doesn't actually
mess with your draft too much. The one thing you might miss is
like some real followers. But there I think the advantage
I would say if you're only doing a couple, you know, BBM drafts
is you can chart your own path. Like we talked about the
differentiation, like if you want to go Nuka McBride like
this, Puka McBride like this, it's a very unique idea.
And because you care more about that one draft than any 150 Max
is going to care about any of their one draft.
You know, they're not going to care more about 10 of their
drafts than you will about your one draft.
Like you're going to come up with some unique stuff like this
that I think you should approach and you should, you should try
and you should go after. I think it's you're still going
to be at A at a a disadvantage from total number of entries.
But that's just the the. Reality of.
It you only have a few teams, they have 150 teams, but each
team is going up against the same number of total entries in
the contest, right? And you're one team.
You can chart this path. Like Pete was saying, we're
like, I like this guy a lot. I'm going to pull him up, build
something unique. And I think, I mean, I think
it's kind of an advantage. It's not an advantage because
you're going against like when you drafted volume and you kind
of let the room try to give you some amazing stuff.
You will get that amazing stuff from time to time.
So if you just leave yourself open to it over a large sample,
you're going to get like a sick version of a team that someone
who reaches for it to make sure they have it will get but it
requires. Throwing some teams away in the
sense like the one that doesn't work or, or throwing some better
versions of the team that you would have liked away.
And if you're doing like three teams, the odds that one of
those teams falls into your lap in those three teams are pretty
low. So I don't have any issue with
like making sure you get a team you're really happy with.
But I also would say it does put you at a disadvantage in the
sense that like if you're drafting with the mindset of
like, I'm going to try to push for some of these insane combos
to come my way, You will get some of those combos over a
large sample. But it's more of a best ball
thing than even a main event thing because it's hard to have
this. DFS and and I think the 150 Max
Vision. Hangout We're on the clock, so
wide receivers available by ADP, Hollywood Brown, Keenan Allen,
Calvin Ridley, Jane Reed, Roshi Rice would probably be the
interesting names here. I mean.
That feels good, Keenan. Yeah.
Keenan feels awesome. I also have no problem grabbing
Rashi rice here either. I think rice is worthy gone or
worthy goes later. Worthies.
Worthies later. Yep.
OK, let's go Rice. All right, Keenan and Rice.
Yeah. And, and I mean, we could go,
yeah, we could go Rice, we could go Jayden Reed, I think as a as
a solid play. Do you?
Want Reed or rice? I like both.
I I OK, OK, let's. Do this just because we only
because we took the 2D tours Pat you seem to be I I was thinking
because you're concerned about the wide receiver depth like
games played risk here but. I I do think what you were
saying, Ben, the the DFS analogy is actually pretty good, right?
Because if someone's making A-150 Max set, you know that it
is a way more of a portfolio exercise for them of like, how
do I get the certain exposures in this DFS tournament?
Whereas the single entry hand builder, like they're kind of
like trying to accomplish different things of like I'm
going to make the best version of the lineup I can make for
this week. I do think there's some
comparables there. There's there's definitely
comparables. I think it's easier in DFS.
The case that I've made is that you know, the parameters in the
in the week and like weekly projections are way better than
season long projections, way more accurate because you know
the parameters going in. And it's also nine man line UPS
that you can correlate like meaningfully.
And so you can build for certain contingent scenarios and people
that are really good at 150 maxi can build for some, you know,
scenarios that if you're hand building, you might not actually
like, you might not have the best version of that team.
Like Pat was talking about it in best ball.
I think it's easier for the one 50s that are really good in DFS
to build the best versions of things because it's known in in
season long and best ball, it's a moving target throughout the
year. We don't know what's going to
happen in week 3, let alone what's going to happen in week
17. We know that.
And it's also an 18 man roster. And so I think like the idea
that A-150 maxer would be able to build like correlated line
UPS in such a better way that they would be in a way better
advantage in any one of their individual lineups.
To me, it doesn't it doesn't pour it over, mainly because I
think the projections are going to be a lot weaker and I'm not
going to be able to understand. And also because I think like it
is to me, the the the best ball things more of an exercise in a
portfolio. Because I think some of the guys
who do 150 just pick like two games and then they stack it so
many different ways that they have that if that game blows up,
they have like everything from that game covered that week.
You know what I mean? They have like the ancillary
pieces. Ancillary.
Well, my brother corrected on that.
People are now using Sims and they can not only dial in the
exposures, but all of them are actually going to be really well
correlated. Lines like perfect and I don't
think you can do that in basketball.
I don't. It's so hard to get a perfect
eighteen man roster, even when stuff falls to you.
Like you're saying, Pat, like my argument would be like, OK,
well, you have like you probably have like an extra fifth round
pick because of that 'cause you got some good values throughout.
But that fifth round pick could just be a, a wash in the long
run. Like it does.
The teams that win in best ball aren't perfect.
The teams that win in in DFS are perfect.
You know what I mean? Yeah, although they're not
usually perfect. Perfect.
Yeah, the what? I guess what I'm saying with
the. They don't have misses right in
in basketball, there's misses in the 18 rounds usually.
Yeah, sure. Yeah, there, Yeah, there are
with any and you're playing for the tournaments, you know, a
half a year away. So it's almost impossible not to
have misses. But the just on the point of the
ADP value, it's kind of like compared to DFS, it would be
like, what if there's a button on your DFS lineups where the
system randomly assigned you a player with a salary band of,
and it's just one spot on your lineup and salary band between
like 5K and 7K on DraftKings. But you didn't know and it cost
like 6K to, to use that, to use that button for that, for that
player. If you're running 150 set, like
probably using the button. If you're running, if you're
building 1 lineup and it's like representing a, you know, maybe
it's like a pretty big size of your bankroll.
I don't know if I use the button, you know, I want to
build the lineup the way I want to build it.
But like there's something that can be plus EV, but you're like,
yeah, but is it going to actually like occur in this?
Like am I, I'm running enough lineups to where I feel good
about the thing actually happening because it when it
doesn't happen, it's I feel like it's negative EV because I
didn't get to pick the player on this lineup that I that I like
the most. Does that analogy make sense?
That that does, I think we're thinking about it pretty
differently, which is like, fine, I don't think what you're
saying is wrong, but I think I'm approaching it from this
perspective of like that, that the idea in the in the chat that
that sparked this thought for me was the puka Trey McBride thing.
And I just I think that would create a really unique.
I mean, it won't be super unique because people will go 10
sometimes in McBride about two O 3.
But those types of thoughts and and those types of approaches,
like I agree with you that you wouldn't get the perfect 'cause
you have to reach in some cases to do like to, to carve out a
certain path in your build or whatever.
And I agree with you that like individuals that are doing their
one draft and going and getting their guys are not going to have
the best version of those builds.
But I also think. That's OK.
Be more thoughtful. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
I think they could build some really thoughtful constructions
'cause they're actually focused. I'm like, man, I'm doing 100
drafts right now and I do I'm, they're not very thoughtful.
My slow drafts, I'll just put it that way.
And a lot of the stuff that we do is exposure related.
Or I mean is, is, yeah, it's exposure related.
We're like, we're just throwing on players at the end.
Like you guys in the fast drafts and stuff are throwing on
players at the end that are like stack or correlated.
And because you also haven't drafted enough of them and you
want to get some of them, you don't really believe in it right
in that pick. And that could hit still, but I
don't know, You're like intent. You're intentionally taking a
suboptimal pick like SAC. Religious wrote about that a
little bit this this offseason. Yeah.
You're mixing in a little bit of a suboptimal.
Yeah, yeah. But you're with the idea that
it's part of a portfolio that's not suboptimal to include
because we, because there's so much variance, we just don't,
right. We just don't know.
All right. I think we're going to be able
to capture the end of a pretty big wide receiver tier coming up
here, the players available by ADP, DeAndre Hopkins, Jordan
Addison. Hopkins Goes Addison, Keon
Coleman, Brian Thomas and then you're down to the Jameson,
Williams, Sutton, Samuel stuff. I'm Thomas there.
BT Thomas. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
What about the other positions? The other positions you're
looking Romandre Montgomery, Zamir White, Joe Burrow, DeAndre
Swift, Jonathan Brooks, Naji Harris, monster Jalen Warren.
I mean, I'd be, I'd be into Brooks or or Warren if we go
away from receiver. I, I think if we were worried
about the ETM pick, we should grab the end of this tier with
one of Addison or if you consider Coleman, I don't like
that. I don't like Addison with rice
so much. I don't either, but we do have
four other receivers and it is back weighted.
I, I mean, I actually, I don't mind it.
We're getting the right price on it.
I I would. Yeah, two rookies and a
suspended guy. Who do you want?
That who's your value? You want Coleman.
I mean, I would want one of the running backs, but I if you guys
are both Addison, take Addison. I like Addison.
Yeah, I like Addison. I don't have as much concern
about the Addison Rice thing personally.
We don't know the suspensions on either.
Well. According to Draco, we took one.
Of the most expensive shares of Rashi Rice in this tournament.
So we're playing it as he is, not suspended at all.
I just to me, I'll all I all I hear is this tournament's kind
of soft that's. Hasn't gotten a Flint since.
Yeah, and we took him six O 1. I, I, I'm not playing in this
enough. That's what.
That's what jerko's telling me. That's true.
Yeah. I mean, yeah.
And and you could definitely, you know, maybe we say that that
we prefer that 2V2 of like Evans Brooks versus Etienne and
Addison. That's definitely fair.
But I I think it's close. I mean, we we do have two
rookies that we need to count on early now, but Neighbors and BTJ
are both day one starters. They're both first round picks,
right? Yeah.
Yeah, Neighbors is like day one, number one.
Yeah, I guess when I said right, I was thinking it maybe BTJ is
not May. I'm calling me out.
Maybe it's soft due to the auto drafters?
You bet you didn't mean this room.
You bet the contest in general. No, but I think he's he's
referring to what preparing to me autograph doesn't doesn't.
Log into the site. Autographs the whole team.
So our team so far, we got the five wide receivers, puka
neighbors Keenan, Rashi Rice, Brian Thomas and Jordan Addison
are sorry, up to six. And then we got Sam La Porta at
tight end and ETN at running back.
Yeah, I I definitely do prefer the the Evans Brooks side of
that two V2. I don't know if you guys are.
Well then you're just running into the same concerns about
early season production. Well, when I said Brooks, I
really meant Warren. Destroyed by your own facts and
logic. Evans, Warren versus ETN,
Addison, I think I'm taking well.
I mean, I don't really like Evans, but I can see why you
would like the Evans one side. I think I'm taking ET on
Addison, but I can see that. Yeah.
I think Addison once like, look, I understand the suspension
risk. I understand all that stuff.
He has a really good Year 2 profile.
He's a strong prospect, very productive at two different
places in college, comes in immediately efficient, not a
massive target owner, but good enough for a rookie, for a young
rookie, for an early declare. I mean, there's like nothing to
not like about Addison, but people are just sort of bored of
him and the situation's bad. But we have a really good idea.
There's not nothing to that that I think I mean he wasn't like a
1.50 yards per outrun. He was good.
I, I don't think he's bad at all and I think he's an interesting
player as a second year breakup that, but like you've got Sam
Darnold as your quarterback, probably best case, worst case
JJ McCarthy and that's probably down the stretch and the
suspension risk thing. I think in some ways it's more
concerning than Rice because Rice we might lose half the
season, but I would imagine it's either the first half of this
season or the first half of next season.
Addison's in a position where it's kind of a cookie cutter
three-game suspension that he's looking at and there's precedent
of them handing that out as soon as it's resolved, which might
mean he misses the fantasy playoffs.
That's not that's not impossible.
So that's like, that's a just such a disaster.
What's the president of that? The president is a defensive
player who had a DUI and got suspended for the last few games
of the season A couple years ago.
Or you. Or maybe last year, Sam Sherman
did a deep dive on this player. Who you can't name on a year
that you can't name. Because I didn't do the
research, but Sam shared with me that there's a defensive player.
He's a defensive player, Ben. You know, you cut me some slack
here, but it was, it's the, the point being that the DUI stuff
is not like they've got to sit down and figure out what the
right suspension length is. Like.
They know what it is. It's going to be three games and
it happens as soon as the DUI, you know, legal proceedings
conclude. And that might be pretty soon,
but not before the season, which it's just it's just like an
additional kind of like God damn if, if I lose this guy late in
the season, that's it's hard to quantify.
How bad that is, But it's I would like to know the details
of the player, but if that's a real thing, like I can
understand that concern. But where I was going, I I hear
your point about the 1.5 yards per hour run, but he was really
efficient. We tend to expect more volume
the next year. The big reason is yards per
outrun was a little bit lower was that he he had a 17% targets
per outrun which is good but not great but.
If that's the don't we care about that more than yards per
target? The yards per target leads to
more the the efficiency fantasy efficiency leads to more volume
the next year in year two players.
Blair Andrews has done a ton of work on that and it's like very
conclusive. And so the 10 TDs matter as
well. But the yards per target and the
TDs is, is like it's he was really efficient and he was a 21
year old rookie playing with Justin Jefferson with the as far
as the target volume is concerned.
Like I think he actually saw more volume with Jefferson, but
then also was playing in like a really shitty passing game after
Cousins got hurt. So I mean, there's like caveats
both ways, but I so This is why I'm like, I think he's good.
Like he was really efficient. I think he's good too.
I think yardage touchdowns really good in college across
all three years, across two different offenses, 25 plus
targets per outrun, 3 different seasons efficient, the final two
very good yards per outrun in college.
There's a lot of reasons to think Jordan Addison's just a
good football player. It's a bad situation, I'll grant
that. But I was going to say that I
think he's being held down by that and the fact that we now
get him and like Keon Coleman's really the only opportunity cost
and it's the end of the wide receiver window.
I'm willing to take the suspension risk.
Now. When you start talking about the
suspension potentially being in weeks 151617, that's when I get
a little afraid. And it's hard to, it's just hard
to know when it, we just don't know when it will be.
And that risk is low. But it's such a disaster.
That would be a disaster. I agree.
All right, real quick, 'cause we're about to be on the clock.
A few options here. Pat Friarmouth falls at tight
end quarterback Trevor Lawrence. If we wanted to stack up with BT
and ETN, the best available running backs are the IS, Tajay
Spears, Devante Williams, Chase Brown.
So I like the Lawrence idea. Forgetting.
I like the Lawrence idea too. And I like those running backs
Taijay Jafal and Chase Brown. Friarmouth is the ADP.
Faller OK, let's let's go Trevor Lawrence by like honestly.
On the site. I think Javonte is just a smash
at this point. I.
Mean, I I think you're the smartest guy I've ever heard.
This whole thing, I said this on ADP chasing, Davis disagreed in
the sense that Estimate was he. He's buying some of the estimate
stuff. Did you Do you not like Javonte
Pete? No, I would I would take Spears
over him now. I just like the it's not even
saying you guys are wrong about it.
It's just like he's going to be he's going to continue to get
cheaper. I.
Think I don't think so. I think it is flipped.
Did you see the Peyton stuff yesterday?
Oh, just that he's in really good shape.
Peyton was gushing. He had this whole thing that
they met in the offseason. He had his college tape on and
he was like, this is the this is the back I want.
What did what did you weigh here?
And he was like, I don't know, like, wait, like two O 5.
He's like get down to that weight.
And then he showed up and he was like he looked trim.
He looked faster. He basically did exactly what I
asked him to do and he looks awesome and Peyton.
I like any of the concern like any and he mentioned like look,
he was hurt last year. He looks different now.
He looks really different now, like.
Has there been a more unreliable narrator in coach?
Beak than Sean Payton than Sean Payton.
With Mims. Who told us he was gonna give a
lot of Mims involved all last year and it.
Was all I, I know he's completely unreliable with Mims,
but it was, it wasn't even just what he was saying.
It was like the way he was saying he was like he was very
pleased with the way a player had reacted to what he.
Reacted to that's what I that's the part of that that makes me
excited he's like I asked him to do something and he did it
that's cool and put in the work to.
Do it, put in the work to do it like it's like reshape your body
and he did that's. Exciting.
Yeah. So I just I I think and also
that my prior is that. You're right.
Like John Bate's donkey. My prior on on the he will get
cut stuff was that it was most likely total bullshit and just
based on speculation, like not like, you know, anyone trying to
do anything, you know, to like muddy the waters, But just like
it was speculation based on how he did last year, which isn't
particularly valuable for us who are like constantly looking at
how players did the previous year.
So having someone chime in like, oh, you know, he wasn't very
good last year, It's like, we know.
Yeah, we're very aware. We know.
There there was also hype on estimate from camp today too.
Like he's, he's he's he talks glowingly about estimate every
time. They like estimate.
They do like estimate it'll and it will be, it'll be a committee
of, of some sort. But we're down in when Pollard's
in a committee, Spears is in a committee, Chase Brown's in a
committee, you know, I think. This is full PPR and they're
going to throw the backs a ton. This.
Is not throw the backs a lot. It may be, but the high value
touches are going to be. Incredible.
Yeah, I think, I think Spears is the better pick there just.
Just for the. Because aren't you getting a lot
of the same things? You're also getting one less
back in the equation. We're also getting week 17
correlation opposite our Jag stuff.
The week 17 correlation's a good point.
The week. 17 I hadn't thought of you.
I, I, I think you're not getting the same thing because the way
I've talked about committee stuff in my high value touch
research is the, the size of the over overall pie dictates
whether they're worth going after.
I think there will be plenty of high value touches in Denver,
which makes that committee worth approaching.
I think Tennessee's offense, Pat and I were talking about this
yesterday in the DMS, but I think Tennessee's offense might
be the worst in the NFL. Like I'm actually pretty out on
it. I like spirits.
He's the one piece that I'm actually willing to take bets
on, But I do think that will limit the high value touches in
that offense. Basically, I think they'll be
some passes, but I don't think they'll be a lot of touchdowns.
And so then you're in a committee in a, in an on offense
with a smaller pie and that becomes less appealing to me.
So I think it's that's different for me between these two.
Yeah, I think there are scenarios where it is like a
like that backfield is divvied up in thirds like pretty evenly.
You know, I think that's also in play for the Broncos.
That's in play. I think the advantage that
Javonte has if Estimate makes the team is that he's going to
be the pass protector Jaleel, I mean, unless he really, really
cleans stuff up, he's they don't trust him at all and he's
undersized. And then you've got a a day
three rookie, an estimate who was a early down banger.
He wasn't like a a passing down guy in college.
So, you know, Javante could kind of marry some of the P Ryan
stuff with his early down roll from last year.
And yeah, I don't expect him to see like 70% of the snaps.
It's probably like 5560. I think if he gets to 60, we're
feeling pretty good. Is is long if as long as the
role is kind of what I'm envisioning?
I don't even know if he needs 60.
I'm, I mean I I seem to have a very different view of Peyton's
backfields then than most, but I've made that case many, many
time. I don't need to.
All right, couple updates here. We are starting to pick up speed
a little bit. As Nick mentioned, we got to
pick up the pace to get this to unlock the gift card.
We're about to be on the clock at the 11-12 turn.
Caleb Williams win, so no stack with Keenan.
Just reading off the literal top of the queue here. 2 Nick Chubb,
Jerome 4 Justin Herbert, Zac Charbonnet, Kirk Cousins,
Matthew Stafford, Hunter Henry Kendry Miller, Rico Dowdell Wide
Receiver. You do have some of the the
Green Bay guys, although Nope, Dobbs just goes.
Wix is still here. Myers, Mike.
Williams, Josh Downs. What do you like?
Chardonnay's kind of the running back name that jumps out to me
here. That's a good one.
What's up? We're.
We're in the K dot in Noah Fiat. Yeah, that's why I was kind of
intrigued by Briarmouth. The Yammer keynote.
And Noah fan, I'm going to put Charbonnet in while we discuss.
And then any other running backs.
The other running backs you're looking at Chubb, Jerome Ford,
Kendra Miller, Rico Dowdell, Ty Chandler, Julio McLaughlin,
Jalen Wright. I would be intrigued by Dowdell.
I would also go with. I think Phant is honestly in
play and then Wicks or downs are also interesting to me.
Yeah, I'm fine with any of that. Dowdle and and Chandler as well.
I I mean, let's do are we seeing 1/4?
To another running back because they're going to get thinned out
fast here. Grab Dowdle.
So we now have 4 running backs, ETN, Givante, Charbonnay and.
Dowdle I mean you get boxed out at tight end on the on the turn.
Yeah, you do. Yep.
Wait, we we had Bowers available to us at the five six?
I thought he wasn't on the. I was like trying to find him.
Well, we needed to catch up at wide receiver.
Yeah, I don't know if we. Kind of feel like inside of the
rice pick. Yeah, we should have taken
Bowers just played it as a flex play.
And we could have taken like Downs here instead of Dowdle.
Yeah. I will an update on the Austin
Eckler pick. The manager is in the FFPC chat
says uh, I have zero clue how Eckler auto drafted in the third
round so you know, neither do we.
Can't help you someone noting that Jemonte had a 50% snapshare
last year coming off a horrific knee injury.
So, but that's I guess there is the the concern with Jemonte is
that they were they really didn't like that and that maybe
he would actually lose work from there.
I think the thing that I most disagree with you, Pat, is I
don't think Javonte's gonna win the ADP culture war.
Like I think he is going to get cheaper.
I mean, people are already not bought in.
And yes, that was encouraging today.
But I think the estimate stuff. But people love Julio
McLaughlin. They're gonna point to the two.
It's gonna be similar to like the Packers thing, right?
Where everyone's obsessed with Wix because it's the cheapest
and an ambiguous thing. Like no one wants to, like,
plant their flag on Jaden Reid. Like I just don't see sentiment
ever getting that steamy for Javonte.
Wick, it's going to require kind of what I think will happen to
happen, but what I think will happen is kind of like along the
lines of sort of where James Conner stuff is gone.
We're like normally wouldn't expect Benson, the exciting
rookie to fall and Connor to rise, but I just think that
people are, I think the situation in reality is a lot
more pro Javante than people realize.
And it's starting now to where we would know about that because
they're actually in pads and we're going to, you know, the
situation is running the pro. Javante like, I, I think you're
so good at reading that stuff, but when you were saying that I
was just like, that would be insane to me.
No, but I'm not like I'm not saying that's right.
I'm literally saying like you guys don't see like as they talk
about like the the sentiment for ETN or Estimate and McLaughlin.
Like those are literally two. If you did like a Family Feud
style poll of like, who's your favorite clique right now,
McLaughlin and Estimate would be like near the top for the
underdog. The fact is this is the most,
arguably the most undervalued backfield.
I saw somebody in the chat as well, but the sentiment was
like, well, they're going to be. They projected to be one of the
worst offenses in the league and like, fine, but I, I can't do
the whole thing again. But like, go read my newsletter
stuff about how Bonex fits and the target volume and the Sean
Payne history of target volume. They wrote about it at Rotavist.
A lot of people are talking about it, Herzig tweeted the
other day. You know generational wealth is
going to be earned from from buying the Giovante dip.
Like there are people that are like, as soon as this starts to
slide it to a certain degree, they're like, this is insane.
Like Sean Payton's lead back who he gave more touches than all
the other backs in the backfield combined last year off the multi
ligament major knee injury. Who's looking better this year?
Who is pretty clearly the number one except for one beat reporter
speculating make it cut, which like I I read it the same way
Pat did. It seems like he just looked at
last year's yards per carry. Yeah.
But my thing is, he said by a generational buying the dip
opportunity, we took him right at ADP, which is kind of my
point. Like we're not actually.
But I think it did. Value from the dip.
Yeah, I think the dip has kind of like finished dipping.
And also, I don't know, I I do think he's going to be a riser
because like the Connor situation where people realize
like, oh, we had this one wrong. This guy's just the starter.
I think we're going to realize, like over the course of training
camp, people are going to realize that Javonte Williams of
the Broncos starting running back and basically been in line
to do that the entire way. But we just we had it wrong.
The case I was going to make is even if estimating Jaleel rise,
I don't think Javante should fall because I think they're
collectively massively undervalued.
I think Javante's multiple rounds undervalued, which is why
I talk about about every freaking stream that I do solo
and I draft him like 40% of my teams.
But I even if you don't believe that and you're in on a estimate
and Jaleel, he's still a steal in this range right now, right?
And if those guys rise, he shouldn't fall like he doesn't
need to fall to compensate that We're low on a backfield that
could have 200 targets like it could be massive.
How many running back targets could they led the league last
year with 153. I think they could go up 33%
from that from. Last year it was a big part of
of. And they might lose P Ryan who
had 50 catches last year. It all consolidated back to
mostly to Javonte. And I think Jaleel gets a bump
too. But.
Yeah, but estimate could be good for Javonte and Jaleel.
That's the interesting part is the estimate.
Estimate is a early down. Guy catch passes.
Yeah, I'm taking a lot of Estimate, but I'm worried that
he won't actually get in on that, but I'm taking it in case
he does because I don't think he's a smash.
All right. We're about to pick.
We are going to need to think through I guess a little bit
with quarterback stuff depending on how we feel about like Daniel
Jones and McCarthy and I guess Bonex, like, you know, who's
here. Xavier Leggett at this price
feels pretty nice to me. If we want another wide
receiver, the running backs you're looking at are Jalen
Wright, Vidal Chuba, Antonio Gibson, Tyler Algier and Ray
Davis. Is there any tight end with a
pulse left? Doesn't look.
Like Chig Chig. And then you're into likely Ben
Sinnett. I think Juwan Johnson is the
best tight end by kind of a lot. They have a lot of available
underneath targets in that offense.
It's all high 8. On you guys with me grabbing
Leggette here. First, Yeah, yeah, I.
AM. Jawan's not though.
I mean, that's the, that's the concern.
If we have another slow start guy.
Yeah. I think if that's more than big.
The other, the one positive about Jawan too, is he opens up
another quarterback. Option.
Yeah, that's true. I'm fine with Jawan.
I mean, Jawan's definitely got a ceiling all.
Right. We probably want to get to three
tight ends anyway, so and LaPorte, you know, gives us a
little cover. I know we can flex them but.
So two years ago he got to 16.7 targets per outrun, which the
first couple years of his career he was really low.
Last year he jumped all the way to 18.8% career high.
And Michael Thomas had about 80 targets in this offense last
year to lower a dot. Hayden Winks has also noticed
this and and I and tweeted out earlier that all of the Saints
wide receivers have really high A dots.
So including a lave. I think this could be great for
a lave but also she he is just a deep threat AT Perry has a high
A dot. This is part of why Kamara got a
ton of targets last year as well.
They don't have a lot in the underneath area of the field
actually and Johnson saw a career high targets Prout run
last year as a result of this. Thomas had 64 targets only
played ten games 6.4 targets a game last year.
I know like Michael Thomas's we've all memory hold him, but
he had 6.4 targets per game in his ten games last year.
He was like a pretty involved player in the range where Juwan
Johnson operates this offense like especially if a lava
doesn't come down has room for Jawan Johnson to set another
career high in like targets per out and get like just a lot of
like cheap underneath volume. Dude, before the foot injury, my
bags were packed like he was going like 170 something on
underdog and I was just like, I mean, Jawan Johnson.
Oh yeah. I just was drafting the hell out
of him. But the foot injury definitely
makes me more nervous because the potential for reinjury, the,
you know, we, we can't drop these guys.
So that's just I've, I've definitely cooled off a lot.
The chick stuff is like they're going to rotate him, I mean.
Chick is potentially just a zero all year.
Like not a zero, but good. Spot for tight ends.
Regardless, I I can at least make a sealing case for Joel.
So not would be the guy that I would have been most excited
about is a big a big cut. But like we're we are only
getting like probably one chance at a real tight end too.
So he was, he was scary. In that context.
He's more of a guy you tackle on as a Titan.
Three, I like that. Or I mean, we could do Michael
Mayer. You're kind of playing powers to
get hurt, but he still has a good profile.
Dulcich, somebody chat. Yeah.
I mean, we might be looking at a next build here.
We we actually have a decent amount of quarterback options
now 'cause we have Daniel Jones with neighbors, Bryce Young with
Leggett, car with Juwan and then Bonex with Javonte.
Yeah, opening up two stacks on that turn was pretty sick.
I don't love playing JJ McCarthy, but all we could also
play him with Addison. Yes, yeah.
Yeah. JJ might sit a long time.
That's my only. The chap pointed out to we got
to pay attention. Not I think we're this is going
to be a three quarterback build almost for sure, but Lawrence
and Derek Carr same week 12 by so we can file that away.
Our other running backs here, we're up to four Travis Etienne,
Javonte Williams, Zach Charbonnet, Rico Dowdle wide
receivers looking good here. Puka Malik neighbors Keenan
Allen, Rashi Rice, Brian Thomas, Jordan Addison and Xavier Leget
and then Laporta and Jawan Johnson.
I would say other than like wanting maybe a slightly better
tight in too. I I kind of like this team.
The running. Backs the channel kitchen weeks
one through 4. I don't know one through 4.
The running backs we ended up hitting all have pretty I mean,
assuming Jonty Williams has a role, they all have pretty solid
role. I mean, we're assuming Enrico
Dowdle certainly does when we take him there.
But if those guys are involved and Charbonnet is going to be
involved, we didn't put a lot of draft capital into running back.
And it's almost like, I also feel like we could almost stop
at 4. Like I don't think we we will
necessarily, but these are all guys like that have stand alone
value and and I feel good about considering we also have Laporta
and these receivers like it's pretty, pretty sick build.
No, I I've really the running backs that we got for the
capital we spent is. Yeah, and and Legette being
there. So just to give some names, I
mean, you know, Demario Douglas went ahead of him.
I guess it was kind of a run on the rookie wide receivers there.
I mean, 80 Mitchell in that round does not look bad either.
But going from Legette like immediately to like the Mooney
and the Datsuns or whatever, I like that a good bit.
Me too, me too. So Derek Carr does go off the
board to a lava drafter out of the two hole.
We do see a little bit of a run coming here on quarterbacks.
I think one of these picks should be a quarterback.
Do you guys have a preference on like by ADP?
The two highest here are Daniel Jones and Bryce Young.
I think Jones is the biggest upside guy, but I know you guys
are a little worried about the late season stuff.
I've been playing it as if he's not a locked to get benched late
season. Well, he's not a lot.
If they make the playoffs, they would definitely ride him, but
it's just the. Even if they're like reasonably
close to the playoffs. They're reasonably close, yeah.
'Cause like I think Dabel and and Shawn are then on the hot
seat. We talked about this on an
earlier show, but like they're tied to him.
If they bench him, they get fired.
Like they, I think they need to win out and try to get to 7 and
10 if they're five and 10 like. You know, maybe, yeah.
And if they're going to get fired, maybe they don't care
who's. You know what else is having to
pay Daniel Jones next year. It might be a funny little joke.
Running backs getting gross. I was, I was going to be excited
to talk about Ray Davis. There he goes.
Braylon Allen is all still available to Antonio Gibson is
available as well. Either either good.
Do you guys want to get Daniel Jones in a running back or do
you want to double tap like Jones?
And Bryce Young, I'd be Bryce over Jones just 'cause you know,
Bryce is starting all year. Yeah, and Bryce opens up
Jatavian late too if we want to try.
That that's true, and honestly the guy'd be most upset to lose
would be Nix. Yeah.
Do you guys want a double tap quarterback here or do you want
to do a like a Gibson? We don't have a mixed stack
right now. Oh, we have Jon, Jon.
Yeah. I'm I'm very on on taking Nix.
For sure. OK, let's do Nix because then
again, like now we have Dulcich and Jatavian Sanders as late
flyer options. I like that.
OK. That's those are great backdoor
tight ends. Yeah, and now we have 3
quarterbacks different by weeks, Lawrence, Bryce Young, Bonex,
that's a that's a fine QB three room all.
Right. Pat, you, I mean, I, I, I know
you're concerned about the Daniel Jones thing, but we were
talking yesterday, you seemed kind of down on Bryce.
I, I mean, I guess I would be a little bit concerned about his
actual like particular scoring if I was as concerned as you
seem to be, yes. No, I mean, I'm not my thing
with rice with with, sorry. My thing with Young is that when
I'm comparing him to players like Levis, I don't have a lot
more optimism for Young than I do for Levis, even though if you
asked me this time last year, I'd be like Young, you know?
But when you have a rookie, you're that bad.
I think it kind of it it, it. And then we saw a big sample and
I know that big sample was with bad coaching, but it's pretty
concerning to me to where I think the outlook is pretty
similar now to Levis's as far as a fantasy player goes, given the
volume increase that Levis will get.
And also I think a a modern offense, you know, kind of
coaching upgrade. I think Vrabel had his
strengths, but as far as like building out an offense the way
we prefer, not one of them. So that's kind of where I'm at
on young and like compared to a guy like May or even Nick's, the
optimism that I have for like a big ceiling is not all that
high. But.
I don't know, we're getting we're getting Canalis, we're
getting a former number one overall pick, we're getting
Deonte Johnson and Xavier Legette added to the offense.
And I do think he is starting all year.
You know, even if he just like comes on at the end of the
season and starts flashing like that could be a win at these
prices. Levis already off the board.
We don't have any, you know, patriots, they don't have to
take Drake may every time, you know, and it's part of a three
quarterback builds where having him add useful weeks over the
course of the season is is pretty helpful.
You know, if I was like, if I had Josh Allen, then I'm like,
let's just let's just stack up the Patriots and and take Drake
may here. Let's let's have let's have some
more fun. But Young's going to start all
season, including the end of the season.
So that's that's where I do, I do take some Young.
Yeah, who do you who do you prefer, Young or Levis?
I mean, I probably prefer Levis because I take more Hopkins than
I take Deonte, but I'm at, I'm at 8% Levis and 6% Young on
underdogs. So it's not like I they're both,
I think they're both totally fine.
Levis, I think probably better spike week upside kind of
profile 'cause he, he chucks it deep and Levis I think will
start all year. I mean, he's potentially bad
enough to where he could just get straight up benched.
But I think you get a little bit more of like the scoring profile
upside with Levis than you do with Young.
Yeah. All right, we have.
Let's see, we got 7 minutes for this gift card giveaway here.
If we can get 3 1/2 rounds done, everyone's kind of digging at
the bottom of their boards. Colby Parkinson, Jelani Woods
coming off. So we know structurally, no, if
we're not probably definitely a running back flyer here,
definitely a tight end, I guess kind of two other picks I think
could go in in other directions. Yeah.
Daniel Jones still on the board. I don't know if we'd entertain
A4 quarterback build at these prices.
I mean, given the prices, I don't, I'm not opposed.
I'm shocked Pat Pat's just not an FFPC influencer.
Drake may still on the board as well.
Is there any time that I'm not an FTC influencer?
We've tried to influence this ADP since 2018.
I'm currently being bullied and text by Jacob Sanderson for
being anti Richardson and I just I just want to be clear like I
understand Richardson could be good.
Like I'm, I'm, this is out of out of nowhere, but I, I, every
stream I'm on from here until the beginning of the season, I,
I don't want to be known as the Ante Richardson yet.
OK, we're on the clock. Daniel Jones is here.
Another name that's here too, like Daniel Jones, Tyrone Tracy,
if we want to do that. The best wide receiver here in
my opinion is Malachi Corley after this run of wide
receivers. What about those tight ends?
I think I'd be. The tight ends are all still
here. I think I'd be Dulcich and maybe
Tracy. I think we definitely need
another running back. Do you like Tracy Ben?
Yeah, yes, I really like Tracy. All right.
And then, yeah, let's definitely get a tight end.
I mean, the question is, do you guys prefer Dulcich, Digitavia
and Sanders? They're both similar ADP.
I guess Dulcich goes much later, but who knows.
I think I do, but. I think you got to take him and
then you got to roll a clip because we haven't roll a clip
all year. Yes, So, OK.
Do we have a clip for one of these players and not the other?
So maybe. I can't even.
It's been so long since we played a clip because we don't
have any good players that are draftable anymore.
The Oh my God, look at that hair.
Oh my gosh, Oh my God, it's so beautiful.
Don't work. I can't I.
Can't. I can't figure out why it didn't
work out for him. Is that there's?
So much trauma to all of these clips.
I mean, people are asking how do we still not have a clip for
this year? I mean, I haven't had one of
those epiphany moments yet. I mean, who's who's the guy we
take in every draft? Do we?
Do we have one of those guys yet?
Probably Javonte Williams at this rate.
Jesus. I mean, we can't make I mean,
it's always a rookie, right? Like what I?
Feel like, I feel like Bucky Irving's the guy I want to make
a clip for. I'm taking and I'm a Husky guy
and I can. Get on board with Bucky, I
select. Him.
A lot of Bucky Irving. Yeah, we definitely do.
Bucky. He's a good clip guy, especially
because it sounds like he's just going to play behind Rashad all
year. 4 minutes drafters, can you pull this off?
It's me, a total bust. Yeah, I mean, I don't know.
The two things that are going to happen is he's going to suddenly
get way more expensive, but he's also going to be bad.
So I don't know if we need a bucking clip.
They got a lot of Bucky. That's true because Bucky's
really cheap too, so we could like run that AP up before, you
know, it all ends in tears I. I I love the initial Jalen
McMillan suggestion, but but Gretch shot that one down early
on. Unreliable, he said.
I'm not trying to like shoot it down.
I just, I don't take McMillan a ton.
I take him. I have, I have.
I had pretty good bags pre drafted McMillan after the
unreliable clip. He was one of my highest drafted
pre draft players because I didn't know why he was so much
cheaper than Polk. But he's still a lot cheaper
than Polk with the ADP difference.
I'm going to be out. Yeah, I should.
I should have mentioned because we're trying to work out our
schedule, so I'm going to be out from Wednesday the 31st through
August 14th to put together a Drake Drake May clip.
How How bummed did you? Can't wait.
To give you the edits on. That in Pat's face when he read
that Drake may split first team reps the first day.
Like what did you do? Dude, there's a free bird clip
of Drake may running around like what?
I mean what a fun player. You know how could how are how
are we not in on Drake may like it is just that in the throat of
Rhaegar. I mean that throw that was such
a sick throw people. I I just don't think people know
how fun he is once they know how fun he is.
This ADP is going to be gone. Right.
We're going to be wrapping up our draft here at the Turn.
I mean, structurally, guys, we have 3 quarterbacks, 5 running
backs, 123457 wide receivers and three tight ends here.
There's a couple interesting wide receiver Flyers down here
that I take on underdog. Did quarterbacks other than
McCarthy are gone? I don't think we really need to
go McCarthy as AQV 4. No.
Tight end has been pretty wiped, although Jatavian Sanders is
still kicking around here. The running backs by ADP are
looking at Damien Pierce, Deonte Foreman, Alexander Madison and P
Rhine. The a wide receiver that's
interesting to me here is is Devantez Walker.
That's a good one. He's one of my.
Favorite. He got a tiny little mini buzz
from one of the first days of camp.
Did he? Yeah, I think he had.
He was working in with the ones I believe but but behind Bateman
and stuff. But I thought that was right.
Of course got sniped on Devantez Walker right as I said it, I
thought didn't have to worry about that, but I did.
I like Jatavian is one of the picks here.
For sure. Rondelle Moore is the other kind
of interesting wide receiver name to me.
I mean, as far as like a guy who's gonna be out there right
away, that's pretty good. Or Deonte Foreman if you want,
like running back with some early season juice.
What about At least Raymond is actually like, yeah, poor light,
but he's actually efficient and is gonna run more routes
probably. This is our last pick.
Should we just get ahead of the generic Prince hype train to
grab him? So we got 20 seconds.
I'm hearing lots of suggestions. Somebody # the table for
someone. Rondelle Moore.
Khalif Raymond Foreman. I don't got a table a pound.
What do we need structurally? I think a wide receiver,
honestly. Khalif Khalif is fun, they love.
Rondelle or Khalif are both fine.
All right, there's Khalif. We have, we have La Porta.
We can, yeah, wrap that up there.
I like that. Oh yeah I just saw a clip of
Estimate catching a pass from Nix.
I mean the the Cecil Lammy tweet I saw he was saying he was
praising both Javante and Estimate today at camp talking
about pass catching I believe. He was praising Javante now.
No, I think I'm. I've been braided as the AR he's
going to be braided as. The oh, you're right, Cecil was
the anti. It was Ben Albright was the pro
Javante. Albright did a little victory
lap yesterday, said the the Devante obituaries were
premature. Yes, maybe what we really get
out of all of this is like a a big beef between all the Broncos
bee reporters. Yes, that's what we all need.
Just like an Anchorman style fight.
Wouldn't be the first time Benjamin Albright's dirty
laundry was aired out on Twitter, Although he did that
himself the first time. Sorry.
All right. I'm going to recap this team
here for us and get your guys final thoughts.
We got our three quarterbacks, Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young and
Bone Nix. We got our running backs Travis
ETN, Javonte Williams, Zach Charbonnay, Rico Dowdle and
Tyrone Tracy, wide receivers Pukunakua Malik, neighbors
Keenan Allen, Rashi Rice, Brian Thomas, Jordan Addison, Xavier
Leggett and Khalif Raymond, and four tight ends Sam La Porta,
Juan Johnson, Greg the Leg, Dolchic and Jatavian Sanders.
How do we feel? I honestly feel way better than
I should about just getting Greg Dulcich and Jatavian Sanders on
this team. Like one of the beautiful things
about drafting fantasy football teams is like that, like in the
vast majority of universes, just like straight up doesn't matter.
And I'm just sitting here feeling great about it.
Yeah, I I kind of like the balance of our rooms.
You know, I think Lawrence is a nice quarterback in the QB
three, got him stacked up, Etns a nice anchor and then we got
some good targets there. A little rookie upside with
Tracy, wide receiver room I think is awesome.
And then like Laporta with the tight end Flyers, I think works
out well. Yeah, and the ETN pick actually
does work out really well with this build because we've allowed
us to push the running back. We grabbed 3.
It allows us to push running back five to Ben's point.
Like if we didn't get a running back five, it wouldn't have been
a disaster. And then it allows us to take a
big cut with Tracy Little little PPR juice at the end of the
season maybe. Yeah, yeah, I was just going to
throw out that I I worry a little about the QBs.
I really like Knicks as a QB 3, but I worry about his scoring
profile and then I worry about Young's.
So little concerned about that. But Lawrence is probably my
favorite mid round upside QB this year.
And on a team with ETN and and Brian Thomas, it's like a clear
bet on Jacksonville's offense. Thomas is the one that if we're
betting on him, then I think we're betting on Lawrence to to
set a career high in in past TV's.
I mentioned recently he hasn't thrown more than 25 past TV's,
but he actually has like sneaky rushing ability.
If Thomas hits, Lawrence hits. If yeah, Lawrence hits ETN is
brought along in a positive way, the.
Other thing with like Trevor Lawrence's passing touchdown
numbers just does he's the type of dude that could just blow up
for a ton of touchdowns. Like he's he he plays a variant
version of of the quarterback position.
Like he goes for it, he's aggressive, he makes mistakes in
the red zone which is annoying, but like.
Clean those up in year 4. Yeah, clean those up.
And also, like, you know, he's trying to do stuff in the red
zone is one another way to think about that, you know, So what if
he what if the stuff works? People people see the mistakes
and they think that he lacks ceiling.
I think as a player because he's never probably going to live up
to what he was as a one-on-one. I see the mistakes in a play
style and I'm like, look, some quarterbacks just need a little
more time to get all the the reads and all the stuff into
their head. A lot of quarterbacks peak after
30 man. Like he's not complicated
position. It's a complicated position.
He's played under Urban Meyer in year one.
Like let's cut him a little bit of slack with like he's probably
got had to learn the the sport completely over when Doug
Peterson took over in year two of his career.
I mean, it's it would not be that shocking if Lawrence
finally took a significant leap in year four Like it just give
me. His pedigree, it wouldn't be
shocking at all. Like it, it really wouldn't if
we were just like talking about like, oh, Lawrence is one of the
best quarterbacks in the league now.
Like not in the Allen Mahomes too.
That's not what I'm saying. But like in kind of that group
that always forms behind those guys of like these and these are
like the other really good quarterbacks.
Lawrence is just like cemented this year in our minds is like,
you know, he's he's he's arrived as part of that group.
Yeah, it's really not. That wouldn't really surprise
me. And I I like I agree, Ben, like
it's probably just a teeny bit weak as a quarterback room, but
getting all of them correlated, you know, being like, hey, can
we get Carolina and Denver has really improved offenses.
And then we have a ton of other kind of small correlated bets
like the Tracy neighbors. One is fun, La Porta Raymond.
So kind of betting on some of these other kind of undervalued
spots. They're not La Porta, but with
the giants as well. So I I kind of like how this
team shook out. It definitely tells a a story.
It does. Yep.
Ben, to your, your Bryce Young point, I've, I've been thinking
about Deonte Johnson 'cause you were telling me you're drafting
Deonte Johnson basically every time over over Hopkins.
And I still really like Hopkins, but I was like, man, I need to
get more Deonte. There was a a quote from Canales
that was like a really fun quote.
I think Scratch retweeted it. I did what he said I did.
AI did. AI did a douchey victory lap off
that quote. I realized afterward.
I wish I would have framed that a little different because I got
a lot of likes. He said.
He said tendencies are OK to have as long as you know you
have them, because then you know that what the defense is sort of
assuming what you do and then you work off of that.
I was like, this guy's smart and he's and also he just told me
he's going to have like a insanely high first free target
rate to Deonte. That's.
Did you see the quote before that quote?
Yeah, where, He said. Where is Deonte?
Our offense. Yeah, he was like, we're going
to build our offense around this guy.
Yeah, but then he also said, And I don't care if the defense
knows that. Right, Yes, I.
Was like OK, yeah, they lot of. First, it made me think of the
of the the the Randy ratio, Mike Tice and Nate.
Nate Tice's son does great work for Yahoo now as an analyst.
Mike Tice was the old coach for the Vikings and came out around
this time in the in the offseason said we're going to
have a Randy ratio this year. We're going to throw to Randy
Moss 40% of the time. Like that's the ratio. 40% of
our passes have to go to Randy Moss.
And it didn't really work great that year, but it was, it
reminded me of that in the sense it was like, I don't care if you
know, I like he's Randy Moss. We're going to try to throw
everything at him and then hopefully you put seven guys on
him and I can throw to someone else.
Sometimes, because I know, you know, and then I'll use that
against you sometimes, right? But Deonte Johnson is like the
leader in open score and elite reception perception profile and
always strong targets per out run every single year of his
career. And like, I mean, it's probably
going to mean a lot of targets. Targets are good.
Targets are the lifeblood of fantasy.
Scores, targets are good. I mean, yeah.
I'm not going to be efficient. He's never been hyper efficient,
but he's going to have a lot of targets, so that's good.
The reason I was bringing up is he talked about who he could
have a clip for and I was hoping maybe you could put together a
Deonte clip because I don't really have that much and I kind
of need him to bust now. That's why everyone's worried
about the Drake May clip. I guess it's just the.
Implications here No. One wants the Before I forget, I
think we're gonna do another one of these next week.
So if you watch this or you missed out getting in this
draft, we'll probably hop in another sit and go next week at
3:00 PM. And then we're really close to
finalizing our streaming schedule for August.
We're getting our main event drafts lined up, reaching out,
booking the guests and and contributors.
And I'm also going to circulate that form that I've been
promising in the ship chasing Discord, because we are going to
have a couple spots available to draft a team with us in Vegas to
do a slow FFPC main event draft with us and some underdog
opportunities likely as well. So if you guys are YouTube
members, that's one of the perks in the discord.
You guys get priority access to that Co manager program we've
done each year. And the form will have all of
those details. But guys, I'm starting to get
the the redraft itch here, drafting these teams, seeing
these tight end premium picks. We're we're about to start
ripping here. We are and the, the slow main
we've been doing has been a ton of fun.
And yeah, it's just it's, it hits different when you're in
these main event teams, you know, it's like you're going to
be managing them. You kind of build the teams a
little bit differently. You you take shots on different
types of players. It's just it's very fun.
Gretsch, anything else from you I I will echo what we said at
the top. If you if you want some fun
scrolls, check out our Reddit AMA yesterday.
I think that's still archived and you can go back and do it.
And they had a a full basketball week.
I know Leonie and Hertzig did it one day.
Josh and Hayden did it today. There's been a bunch of fun
combos up there on Reddit. Yep, that was a really fun one.
I wrote a long piece this week called The Macro Trends You Need
to Understand to Dominate in Fantasy in 2024.
Talked a lot about a concept I've mentioned on the show a
couple times about how I still think about the passing game
through A dot and how play space, the player space the
field vertically. We talked through this a little
bit during the Juan Johnson pick in terms of, you know, what the
range of, of outcomes for different targets for different
players are. Got a pretty positive response
on that and, and have enjoyed the, the feedback there.
That's a piece I would reference.
And then I'm writing up my first offseason ceiling signals post
right now, which I end up writing one for each division.
The signal noise stuff that I learned doing the projections
breakdown every offense and I'm I was working on that this
morning. Those are all very long, very
involved and they'll be coming for for signal Subs.
Awesome. Pat, what about you?
Leg up. Yeah, I'm been working on an
article, kind of a follow. I did an article a few weeks ago
on looking at the profiles of the early round running backs,
kind of asking the questions about like how, how different is
this from years past. And I'm doing that for the
running backs that are going in the spot where we're actually
enjoying taking running backs in, you know, around 7:00 and
1:00. So that'll be out.
That'll be out pretty soon. Awesome, keep an eye out for
that. Like I said, if you guys are
YouTube members, you get access to our mini sods.
The first two are out. I will probably publish the
third tomorrow. Been getting lots of good
feedback on that as we talked through strategy and and player
selection takes. And then for me, I have a double
header tonight with my buddy Nick Urquilano from BDGE.
He's doing randomizer at 8:00 PM Eastern and then we're going to
roll right into an after Dark at 9:00 PM Eastern with Nick
Urquilano so you can check that out.
Appreciate you guys hanging out and thank you to all the ship
chasers who filled this tournament.
I know we didn't get to sauce everybody's team today, but
appreciate you guys joining and battling it out with us in these
FFPC best ball streets. I also see Underdog just
launched a few new contests while we were live.
I believe there's a $75 single entry Bulldog, which sounds like
a fun contest, so we can check those out as well.
But for Pat, for Ben, thank you to producer Nick.
We'll see you guys next, next time on Greg Dolce chasing.