Hello everybody and welcome to staff facing week 11.
We are in the midst of the NFL season.
My name is Sam Hoffman and I am your host for the show.
The fantasy football, playoffs are right around the corner for
everyone. One and hope to get you all
prepared for this upcoming week for the playoff stretch as well,
if you haven't watched the show before.
First of all, thank you for tuning in.
This is where I go through some of the key stats that I think
are important to help lay a foundation for understanding.
What happened this past week, the past several weeks for my
own, edification, and helping set my lineups, and understand
what's Under to happen in the upcoming week.
But before I get into the nitty-gritty details of all the
data, want to share the sources of the stats that I'll be
walking through. So from PFF, I get all of my
routes data so that's any rap specific metrics targets per
outrun route rate, things like that.
I also use their expected fantasy points.
Which is a model built that weights Opportunity by the line
of scrimmage and where a player is targeted where they get carry
stuff like that. And I use this primarily as a
measure of usage to understand which players are getting the
most high value opportunities in their offense and potentially
are or are not making the most of those opportunities.
Where I get the majority of my stats though are from NFL faster
which is the NFL's play-by-play data I get are yards from there
which is the distance. The ball traveled in the air
before it gets to a receiver weighted opportunity rating a
metric that Josh Hermann Maier created a couple years ago that
Waits Target, share and area. I'd share.
Also have receiver are conversion ratio which is
receiving yards divided by area Cards.
And is a, an efficiency metric, showing an a receivers ability
to convert are yards into actual yards.
Also, have Pacer on the flip side, which is passing air
conversion ratio, which is passing yards, /, passing Area,
Arts and shows a quarterback or his receivers ability to convert
are yards into actual yards. also have quarterback adjusted
yards per attempt, which is yards per attempt, What is
weighted with interceptions and touchdowns and then have a
couple of expectation based stats.
First of all have password over expectation in NFL faster,
they've created a model that identifies the percent chance
that a play is a going to be a drop back or a passport team.
And then you can use that to calculate a team's expected
pass, Freight, and then subtract that from there.
Actual path straight to get password over expectation.
Similarly, have completion percentage over expectations or
cpoe which is a quarterback's again, expected completion
percentage or their actual completion percentage over
expected. And again, is it an efficiency
type metric for quarterbacks? Also have a couple of stats
popularized by been grex printed the show, waited targets per
outrun, which weights are yards and routes run with a scalar
included. Primarily used this for the wide
receiver position to show which players are getting targeted at
different depths and how efficient their being their
targets. And then high-value touches
which is a running back specific metric is carries inside the 10
yard line and any reception and then we'll also be referring to
green zone touches which is any touch reception or carry inside
the opponent's 10-yard line and got Crosby in the room here.
As you can see him crawling around, but we'll be going
through the stats. By position, so that I can
compare against others in the position.
And hope you make help you to help you make starts a
decisions, waiver decisions, potentially your final trade
decisions of this season. And then we'll go through a
couple of teams more in-depth, just looking at their situation
as a whole, a couple of final reminders.
If you're watching this on YouTube, be sure to like this
video, Subscribe to the YouTube channel and become a member.
For just five dollars a month to get early access to this show.
Be able to watch it live, get access to the Discord and a
bunch of other benefits as well. And then one final shout out to
act change College on Twitter who has been amazing and adding
timestamps on the YouTube video for each of the positions and
the team conversations that you You The Watcher or listener, it
can skip ahead to whatever conversation I guess discussion.
I don't know if it's really conversation if it's just me by
myself but whichever one that you want to listen to
specifically. So as I do every single week,
I'll be showing a chart on the screen for the video on YouTube.
I would highly recommend you watch it on YouTube to be able
to see these charts. I usually set to share some of
them on Twitter but not all of them.
And starting off with the quarterback position on the
x-axis of this chart, have adjusted yards per attempt.
The y-axis have touchdown rate so that's just touchdowns /
passing attempts and then the size of a quarterback's bubble
as his rushing yards per game and looking at efficiency here
because that's what drives quarterback scoring.
The most volume is not as much of an indicator for Fantasy
success, for the quarterback position as it is for running
back. Back wide receiver and tight
end, but one quarterback who has not been that efficient.
The last couple games specifically is Matthew.
Stafford has played, two Prime Time games against the Titans
last weekend against the student, against the 49ers.
Last night and has just been absolutely abysmal.
And in those two games, he has a negative 4.8% cpoe.
He has a - 0.18 EPA per play. That's expected plated play,
which is, is very bad. You want that to be positive?
He's thrown only two touchdowns and four interceptions in those
two games. He's still throwing it a ton and
they've had to throw it a ton. Because they've been down in
these games so early and he has over 240 passing yards.
Per game is to me over 240, pass cards.
In each of the two games had 293, I believe last week, and as
a result of all of these interceptions and the lack of
touchdowns has fewer than 12 points per game across the two
games and has fewer than 24 points in obviously those two,
Two, two games. Combined So he's going to be
going into his bye week. This week him in the Rams are,
and I'm actually going to talk about the Rams wide receivers
later on in the show, to sort of dissect, what happened last
night, specifically, obviously Robert Woods is out for the
season, which I honestly think will hurt Matthew Stafford more
than it's being talked about. And maybe that's like the NFL
NFL football guy version of me. Steaming something is like I've
seen a lot of people say that Robert Woods missing is a bigger
deal but in any case I don't think they're sitting Stafford
if you have him except for this week, obviously, but it could
potentially be a by little opportunity.
Now, if you've been streaming quarterback all year, if you
have someone in place for week 11 and sort of want to solidify
the position, I rarely advocate for trading for quarterbacks,
especially in one quarterback leagues but Stafford outside of
these two games has been phenomenal this entire year and
I think they have a fairly favorable schedule down the
stretch as well. So certainly something to keep
an eye on, they do pass the ball tan again, which I'll get into a
little bit more later on the only other quarterback, that I
really want to talk about is Trevor simmi.
Ian, who hasn't been playing terrible from a both of real
life in the fantasy football perspective.
Since taking over for Jameis Winston in week 8 has a negative
four point nine percent cpoe which is that's the bad part I
guess with what Simian but has not thrown an interception and
his throne five, touchdowns has a 4.8% touchdown rate.
Is averaging 15 and a half fantasy points per game.
In those three games, has a 7.8 adjusted yards per attempt, the
0.93 Pacer, so he's not getting a ton of help from his receivers
but the same to do play the Eagles this week.
So I do think if you're looking for a Stafford replacement, you
could do worse than then Trevor Simeon and another option to
replace Stafford this week now that I'm thinking about it and
looking I don't believe he shows up on on the chart here is Cam
Newton just because he didn't have that many actual passing
and rushing attempts, but it sounds like Cam Newton is going
to the the Panthers are going to do everything that they can to
get him to start this upcoming week after Again who
specifically they play but certainly a couple of names that
are likely on your waiver wire to look out for.
If you're looking for a quarterback replacement this
week, The final thing that I'll note with quarterbacks is Josh
Allen's average depth depth of Target, I forget that.
I didn't write that down the number specifically but I
remember reading in been grouches article or his
newsletter ceiling signals, please do subscribe to that.
But Josh, Allen's average depth of Target.
This past week was the highest in a single game all season, so
it's great to see See, him pushing the ball down the field,
and maybe that's a product of them playing.
The Jets, who do not have a great defense by any stretch,
but is certainly good to see and benefits.
Stefon Diggs. I'm going to be actually talking
about the bills later on in the episode a lot of teases today.
Okay, the running back position is as fun as ever, and on x axis
of this chart have rushing expected fantasy points.
On the x-axis. Receiving expected fantasy
points on the y axis and fantasy points over expectation or F po
as the size of The bubble one obviously, one backfield that a
lot of people are paying attention to right now in the
wake of Derrick Henry going down, is the Titans running
backs and it's now been two weeks without Henry in the fold.
I wouldn't, I would be shocked if Henry came back at all this
regular season, given delete. That the Titans have, in the AFC
South given, how easy their schedule is down the stretch and
then being able to piece together.
Some wins with the guys in this backfield, but in week, 10
Deontay Foreman actually was the lead guy for the Titans.
He led the backfield and snaps was at 35 percent.
He led them in carries and total yards yet, 30 rushing yards and
48 receiving yards. So over the past two weeks to
again McNichols seems like he's still the past catching back.
He's got an 11 percent Target, share over the past.
Two weeks is only got averaged, excuse me, three targets per
game which isn't spectacular by any means.
But is wanting a route on 32% of drop backs and I think we'll
continue to solidify that passing work but if anyone was
to take it I think it would be form informant had 13 total
opportunities. This past week McNichols only
had seven and Peterson. Only had nine that was after a
week in which both McNichols and Peterson had double digits
opportunities. So it's sort of looks like
Foreman. Is dating a little Traction in
this backfield. He was the lowest in snap share
in their week. Nine game at 21 percent and that
was obviously their first game with Adrian Peterson.
But if you look at the snap shares between these two games,
Peterson's been at 33 percent actually both games and make
nickels and Foreman have essentially flopped from week
92. Week 10.
They've all averaged at least one green zone touch per game
which is probably what's most frustrating across the this
backfield is not being able to figure out who the sort of goal
line or Red Zone guy is going to be the one thing if someone is
Offering like a bigger than expected pot for any one of
these guys, they're all averaging over the past two
games, they all have fewer than 11 total expected points.
Which I think is a bit of an aberration, the Titans password,
over expectation, did drop below zero percent which again is
encouraging. If you have invested in This
backfield and because again, like they've been a passive
Samia run. First offense, this entire
season with Derrick Henry, with their wide receiver core, being
so hurt with AJ, Brown and Julio Jones, each missing a couple of
games. They also played the Texans this
upcoming week, so it could be a huge spot for any one of these
players. And I'm going to take sort of a
Bayesian approach here and and say that foreman if anyone if
you want to start anyone whether it's from a DFS or fantasy
perspective Foreman is The guy to play after the Texans they
play. They face at the New England
Patriots, they have a bye week, then they play the Jacksonville
Jaguars, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the 49ers in the Miami
Dolphins to round out their schedule, which is kind of crazy
that there's only seven weeks left after this week is Sue me
six more weeks after the Seven weeks is hard in any case.
Foreman is my pick? I go for me McNichols Peterson
and how I drank these guys because I do think the Titans
their lack of pass, catchers makes it easy for could make it
easy for McNichols to budge in there and earn a larger Target
chair. Moving on.
Speaking of a run, first team, the Detroit Lions, rented a ton
on Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers in that.
Awesome. Awesome game.
That ended in a tie. DeAndre Swift was the man of the
hour of though. He set season highs in, snap
chair at 93% at lions, running backs, carries at 87% total
touches which they're at 36. He had the 33 carries which was
more than double his career-high.
The previously he had a V-8 total percent percent of the
backfield touches. He led the lions in routes And
running out, route on eighty four point three percent of
Dropbox, and they only had these 25 passes in this game.
So, not a huge sample there. But again, all all of the other
running backs for Detroit, played on fewer than 10% of the
snaps. Now, germar Jefferson, I believe
left with an ankle injury part way through.
The game opening the door a little bit for oh gosh.
I've got to check this name before the show but Godwin
equate bouquet, equate bouquet I'm not going to try to
pronounce that but it's he they Funny enough.
They both had a rushing touchdown in the game and Swift
didn't, so they certainly made the most of their opportunities.
But over the last two weeks, both of which have been without
Jamal, Williams has been huge for DeAndre Swift.
He's again, averaging five, high-value touches per game,
averaging 20.2, Expected points per game and crazy enough.
He's averaging -7 fantasy points over expectation per game.
So again, he it's because he's getting all of these
opportunities and hasn't been able to find the end zone.
At least not a rushing touchdown but he has a Excuse me, a twenty
percent Target cherries running around on 74% drawbacks his
receiving expected points, is that eight per game, which is
absolutely phenomenal. That's where we want to see,
really, any work horse running back, they can get the majority
of the carries but really want to see them.
Getting worked in the passing game.
He's averaging five and a half targets as well.
So drum are Jefferson. Should be on every team.
If he isn't already Godwin, I am going to call him is definitely
worth a stash if this Jefferson injury is worse than it appears.
And I don't know what the timetable to return for Jamaal
Williams is but this backfield gives their running backs, a ton
of high-value touches and obviously that's a lot of that
is weighted by Swift's opportunity.
Shh. With high by touches.
But again, if Swift work to go down God forbid crossing my
fingers, that it doesn't, then literally anyone in this
backfield could be valuable despite the offense being not
that great. The next backfield is not
necessarily it is a backfield or wasn't backfield, and now it's
just a back and it's Christian McCaffrey in the Panthers
because McCaffrey's all the way back he or is he that's, that's
the question I think. I mean, he's gotten 19 and 23
opportunities in the past two weeks.
But his snap share has been at 49% in 15.
Nine percent the past two weeks, so he's not the Panthers are
clearly not giving him necessarily the full work low.
And it could be a situation like we saw a couple weeks ago with
AJ Brown, and how they had him essentially playing a full
complement of passing down work. But on The one place they took
him out because they didn't want to risk further injury, which I
think is a smart way to play it. And the Panthers were very far
ahead in this game early on forced a couple of turnovers
against the the Cardinals and Christian McCaffrey should have
just had like a monster. Monster game.
Kim Newton back. from back, from back, from the dead that sounds
like, vultured a goal-line touch from him and then passed to
Robbie Anderson who is also back from the dead, but in any case,
McCaffrey did want to route on 67% of the team's Dropbox, which
is his highest rate of the Season, including the two full
healthy games, that he played in weeks, one and two.
So that's certainly good to see. He's, he got 10 receptions this
past week is averaging seven over the last two weeks.
The one guy to keep an eye on in this backfield is Ameer Abdullah
because he It seems like he's sort of eclipse.
Chuba Hubbard in, in the pecking order for the Back Field.
This past week. He had 13 total opportunities.
It's the second week that he's had more opportunities than
chuba Hubbard. Abdullah has been act, a 37% and
21% snap share the past two weeks while Hubbard was at 17
and 21 percent. So the same for a week 10, but
for more, The opportunities in this game has gotten 9 total
targets over the last two games has four and a half high value.
Excuse me, nine high value type is over the last two weeks as
well, compared to just three for Hubbard.
So it seems like there's a bit of a Changing of the Guard.
So if Abdullah is out there in your league again, especially
heading into the playoffs, where Wear handcuffs.
I believe, add in my opinion a lot more value.
From a floor perspective. If Abdullah is out there, most
certainly worth and add and worth a peek to see if he's out
on your waiver wire. A couple of other nuggets at the
running back. Position before I move on to
wide receivers, this is from John Daigle.
He noted that Michael Carter, 16 carries 20 touches and sixty
sixty point six percent share of backfield touches were his most
game most in a game with Tevin Coleman this year, which is
great to see because we hadn't seen Carter in about cow role
while Coleman had been in the line but not I'll be interested
to see where Carter gets drafted, next year, he'll likely
Fall in the running back, Dead Zone, but don't hold me to this,
but I could see him having a swift like season, potentially,
with being in a bad offense, is a teepee, getting depressed, a
little bit. And having just the majority of
the backfield opportunities, especially if he's getting The
passing down work. I had a question in the Discord
to talk about the Packers running backs.
Aaron Jones was going to be out for a couple of weeks.
I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see him until after the
Packers by in a couple weeks. But Kyle and Hill is out for the
year as well. So Patric Taylor, running back
for the Packers is worth an ad, especially for running back
needy teams. He only had two carries in the
game this past week, but he did have one of those was a green
zone touch. And you know, that Packers team
wants to seems like they want to run the ball a bit more but JJ
Dillon had let's see. 23 total opportunities in the game with
Aaron Jones going down part way through it.
So just a Dylan's gonna be a smash for the next couple weeks
as Aaron Jones group breaks from his injury.
Christian, McCaffrey Dalvin cook and the mentor Darryl Williams
were all tied for the league lead in high-value touches with
11 in week 10. And I point this out because
Williams had has had at least seven high-value touches in his
last three games. But it sounds like ceh, could
possibly be back this week if he's not.
Then Williams is definitely a solid start again this week.
In the first game without Chase Edmunds, a lot of eyes were on
James Conner and he got 14 opportunities compared to just
seven opportunities for. You know, Benjamin but Connor.
Did play on a season-high 82% of snaps and ran a route on over
50% of snaps for the second straight week.
So Connor still looking every bit the Workhorse while Edmonds
is out. No, from been in his article or
excuse me in his newsletter. Again, about Antonio Gibson,
coming off the body. I had his highest snap share
since week one had all five of the green teams Greens on
touches but his routes weren't quite as high as the first few
weeks. So a sign that his injury is is
improving and he's getting healthier.
But I think it's a bit of a lost cause of him us wanting to have
him, get the full receiving workload, that mckissack debts,
Final note, a couple of notes from Davis Matic actually since
for returning from injury, Elijah Mitchell is sixth amongst
all running backs and fantasy points over expectations and is
fifth in NFL in rushing yards per game and since that time
Trace sermon this this is this really got me.
Tracey Thurman, has more tackles with to, then he has carries,
which is one since Mitchell return from injury.
So it was, there was some news this afternoon to you that
Mitchell. I think broke his finger and was
getting surgery on it. So there's no, I don't know if
there's a timetable to return for him yet, but I mean, I was
ready to say that Trace summer was dead.
But if Mitchell is, in fact out sermon is, is worth picking up,
but Jeff Wilson is definitely the primary guy.
That should be on teams regardless because he got a fair
share of work last night against the rankings.
Okay. Moving on to the wide receiver
position here. On the x-axis of this chart,
have waited targets per outrun on the y-axis have Excuse me
area, arts market, share. And then the size of their
bubble is fantasy points. Over expectation going to start
this section off talking about the Jaguars wide receivers
because it's it's Bleak at least for us bisca fans.
But since DJ Chark went down, this is how sort of the last
five weeks. Are panning out Jamal egg new of
the wide receivers leads the team with a 19 percent Target
share. Marvin Jones is second at 18
percent and Lavista is third at 16%.
Jones is running around on 91% of drawbacks.
Both a new and chenault's are at 73%.
They're all averaging between five and a half in seven and a
half targets per game, which is not.
A ton obviously and is not something to base consistency.
Off of Jamal. Agnew did have a 70-yard
touchdown rush this past week, which was was pretty crazy it
saved his week, he's had double-digit PPR points in.
Oh, now it looks like five of the last six weeks.
So I guess there's a little bit of consistency.
They're Marvin. Jones has an eclipse double
digits in each of the last three weeks either.
And I think some somewhat good news for chennault is that his
average depth of Target was up to 8.1 yards this past week.
That was his highest sense week 5 which was the first game
without charc when it was at 67. So got some more downfield
targets, but it's still the sort of short area, Target his both
him and egg new are at a having a DOT below.
Seven yards while Jones is at thirteen point, six yards, so
from a consistency standpoint and this is what's what's
difficult because there are, I think some opportunities for
some boom weeks here with the Jaguars wide receivers I would
tend to lean towards Marvin Jones, having the opportunity to
have. Again one of those boom weeks
he's had over 100 Area Arts in three of his last five games has
over 50 and every each of his last five games is that at least
five Targets in the last three games.
So again, that's not a huge number of targets but there's
some consistency there. And again, the big thing for me
is the 91% Route 2 / drop back rate that he has has a Jones.
Also has a 0.48, waited targets per outrun, which is below
average. And I think that's sort of
shows. You sort of how bad overall
these. These receivers can be egg.
New actually is above that, x 0.5 to what all all of those
below. The Median, Mark here on the
chart over the last five weeks and it's probably at this point.
Something to stay away from it if possible.
The next group. Of receivers.
I and it's really just one receiver and it's a cover boy
DeVaughn to Smith the Eagles. And I want to talk about him
specifically because the Eagles want to run the shit out of the
ball. Their pass rate over
expectations has been a negative 13 percent or lower in each of
the last four weeks, which is just dead last, they are
content, running the ball as much as they want.
And yes, the good news is that quiz Watkins deal and rhaegar
and Smith are the only three receivers in on this team.
Getting targets obviously Dallas Kadir, the tied end there is not
Included in that as well. But None of these players have
more than six Targets in a game over the last three weeks and
that is that's even worse than what we saw with the Jaguars but
the good news and why I think devata can Thrive continue to
thrive as one. He's an excellent plan maker,
he's a better receiver than anyone on the Jaguars that I
just mentioned. He has a 41% area I'd share.
Over the last four weeks over that stretch of games that I
mentioned, with the Evo's, passing the ball ton, a 41% area
of share, 28 percent Target, share a 0.68, Whopper a way to
Target Sprout, run of 0.73 which is you know near the top.
Over the last several weeks. And had that fantastic touchdown
catch. In the game this past week, I
believe, if I remember correctly, that was like the
touchdown with the smallest window thrown into this entire
season and just made a spectacular.
Grab is obviously better than Reger and Watkins at this point.
Over his last five games Smith has been at 98 area, ards, or
more in three of his last four he has.
And this is Unnie hit Smith has exactly 22.6 fantasy.
People are points in his last two games in each of his last
two games and this is following his week 8 where it only had two
and a half. So really coming alive at the
right time here but I think and I might have talked about this
group a couple of weeks ago. Quiz Watkins is clearly the
number two receiver in this offense.
Now he's a Were chained just under four targets per game in
the last four games. But regular is just under two
Targets, per game has just an eight percent Target share and
seven percent of the area ards in the, in that stretch regular,
it's only running a route on 71% of Dropbox.
While Watkins is pretty much neck and neck with Smith at 90%.
So Watkins and Smith. Probably the only two Eagles
wide receivers worth rostering right now.
Again given how little they want to pass the ball but again they
might be forced to pass the ball in some of the weeks to come.
We'll see about that. On the flip side, a team that
loves passing. The ball, is the Chiefs and I
rarely talk about the Chiefs and teams like the Chiefs, because
we pretty much have them figure it out, but I thought it was
time to take a look because Patrick Mahomes kind of looked
like his old self the other night for parts of the game, and
wanted to see if there is any value in any of the receivers
behind Tyree kill who's having just a phenomenal season Once
Again in the last five games. Averaging, over 12 targets per
game. It's a 27 percent Target, share,
38% area, I'd share over 130 28 yards per game.
It, I mean he's just crushing it.
So I'm not going to talk about Hill who I want to talk about
are the receivers behind him because it's been a bit of a mix
between Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle and Michael Harmon and
Josh Gordon has just done nothing for this team.
He just has three total Targets in the last three games and
doesn't have any catches. He he's not worth roster and if
if he was still on your roster but in any case, the thing to
note here is that Miko Hardman this past week, ran her out on
only 33% of drawbacks, which is by far a season-low, his lowest
before that was at 59%, which was just two weeks ago at in
week 8. But this is just this is the
first time that it's our second time.
I guess that's been below 60%. Meanwhile Byron Pringle had a
season High 67% route rates in week, 10, after not being above
50% in any week before this past week.
So again, if we're looking at this one game, it looks like
Byron Pringle. May have supplanted Miko
Hardman. And Pringle had 73 are yards in
this game. He had 121 Area Arts back in
week 7 and is just a little looking better than Pringle at
the at this point over the last five weeks, Pringles.
That a nine percent Target share me, Cole Harmons at a 12 percent
Target share and I do think that Pringle is worth in a diff This
point, it's not it's not exciting and I don't think I'd
slap him into a lineup right away. but if this continues,
then, That he's basically Miko Hardman and I think, you know,
there's obviously been a lot of hype around me Cole, Harmon in
the past and Pringle has a 0.45. Weighted targets per outline
over the last five weeks, we call hardens just had 0.38.
So getting slightly more work in that regard.
Heart racing, you Pringles averaging about a half of half
a, an expected Point per game over the last just five weeks as
well. So just sort of reading the tea
leaves here and it seems like it could have been because the
Chiefs are up so big in and they wanted to get Pringle more
involved. But I tend to lean that again
that they kept I re-kill on there for quite a while as well.
And so I think he Pringle is worth worth an act here.
Okay, I mentioned it earlier Sure, I'm going to talk about
the Rams wide receiver situation.
Here a little bit obj Auto Beckham jr.
Was in the lineup. I just get paid to G last week.
He was in the lineup, but only ran a route on 25% of the team's
Dropbox had three targets caught, two of them for 18
yards, that's 68 area, ards obviously, had that long deep
shot that Stafford through the ugly pick on, but Just didn't
didn't really play enough to get a sense of how he's going to be
used at, like I mentioned the Rams enter their bye week this
week and then get the, the Packers, the Jaguars Cardinals
and Seahawks. So maybe that gives them more
time to have Odell Beckham jr. At just to this offense because
I'm sure it's much much different than what he was doing
with the with the Browns. But the other person or persons,
I guess to talk about our vintage a person and someone
baby named been skaro neck. And scour neck, I'm just going
to call Ben Ben had five targets last night.
Jefferson did have seven targets of his own if he Jefferson has
had, at least six Targets in each of the last four weeks.
Jefferson ran a route on 97% of drop backs and has been above
eighty eight percent in each of the last four weeks.
He is Is actually averaging, excuse me, last night, he had 17
and a half expected fantasy points and had -9 fantasy points
over expectation because he drops a touchdown and a couple
other passes as well, but on the season, his played pretty decent
and it's getting for sure, a full share of routes and I think
will continue to do so. With Robert Woods, like I
mentioned being out for the year here.
So we'll see if Stafford and some trusting Jefferson after a
couple of of bad drops. But I'm not really worried about
the ancillary pieces here because the Rams have had a
positive pass right over expectation, in every single
game this season, and their fourth and password, over
expectation cents, week seven. So Jefferson again certainly
worth. Rostering and I think could be a
viable flex plate in the right spot and Odell Beckham jr.
At, I might wait until after they play the Packers to see
what he looks like in that game before, plugging him into my
lineup. Coat Cooper cup as solid as
ever. Had 13 targets for the third
time in the last four games and the fifth time, I'm Sydney,
fourth time. This season has double-digit
Targets in every single game except we gate and it's just
blowing out the water. Didn't quite get you there last
night without a touchdown, but he's still a stud.
And one of the fantasy MVPs of the season, A couple of again
final nuggets on the wide receiver position in his first
game back. Michael Gallup saw five targets
and ran a route on 58% of drawbacks.
He had a really nice lawn catch that he almost scored on.
So really good to see him back if he was for whatever reason
dropped in your league be sure to go snatch them up this week.
In the past, two games without Henry rugs.
Here's how the Raiders Target Shares are flushing out. 100
Renfro has a 22.6% Target, shared during Waller at twenty
nine, twenty one point, nine percent, and then nobody else is
above 13%, and it's Kenyan Drake at 12.9 drops Jacobs at 11.40,
Brian networks at 10 and safe zones at eight and a half.
So, It seems like Renfro and Waller are just going to get
boosted up without anyone really taking over the Henry rugs role.
If you will, the Sean Jackson had a long catch against the
chief Sunday night and then fumbled it.
So then walked off the sign like sideline, visibly frustrated but
we'll be interested to see if He gets any more run in the games
to come. T.
Y Hilton did one a season High 72 percent of routes and have
five targets and looked pretty decent I guess.
So yeah, we're worth keeping an eye on Hilton for and then this
from been Greg saliva more found the end zone late but ran around
not just 52% of Dropbox. Corey Davis was back in return
to a full roll running. A route on more than 90% drop
back so I believe and Jamison Crowder had a season High routes
one share. So I don't really understand.
I mean, he sort of split the, the widest, a three roll with
Keel and Cole. Hopefully that sort of smooth is
itself out and more sort of solidifies himself as the wide
receiver three, but something something to monitor, for sure.
Now, wrapping up this, this position specific conversations
with someone who seems like the Talk of the Town.
These days, the football cognoscenti is having a field
day with Dan Arnold right now. And all it took was him.
All it took was getting him away from Sand Arnold for him to
thrive over the last There are two tight ends that have scored
at least 10 PPR fantasy points in each of their last three
games. That's Dan Arnold and Evan
engram. That's from Keith Cummings over
at CBS, and then at 11th and Levitan pointed out over his
last five games, his Target share has been above 20% in each
of those five games and has been an over 20% in three of those
five. Games.
So truly an elite Target, share for a tight end.
Overall, in those five games has a twenty percent Target, share
is averaging seven and a half targets per game, which again is
phenomenal. His route per drop back.
Rate has risen in each of the last four games he's had topping
out at 81 percent. This past weekend is averaging
10, PPR points per game. So for a tight end, that makes
him a tight end one, and it's really just playing solidly for
sure. I think is will be interested to
see his price for DFS this week because he's been below 4K.
I believe the last several weeks and has been a smash at that
price but we'll see. We'll see where it's there.
Had a request from Teemo in the Discord talk about Troutman
season. And I was confused and I thought
I missed something, but nope, Troutman, still kind of bad has
not scored above 10, PPR points at all this season, had a point
to this past week 8.7 that week before, and maybe this is what
he's talking about, but he's had at least six Targets in each of
the last three weeks, which sort of coincides with Simeon
started. and, Yeah, I mean he has that many targets which
again I talked about just mentioned and Ehrlich seven and
a half per game in his last five.
I mean, just over six per game is, is pretty solid for a tight.
End is well into on Johnson is pretty much a non-factor at this
point after looking, like he could have a solid role entering
the season. But what's really weird about
Troutman to is that he was at a fifty seven and a half. percent
routes run rate this past week, which is the first time that
it's dipped below, sixty six percent since week for so, I
don't really get it, I would not trust traveling in my lineup.
I don't think that offense has nearly as high of a ceiling as
it once did. Speaking of players that are
back and tight ends that are really good.
George kittel is all the way fucking back.
He leads the team with a 22, extremely 26, percent Target,
share and 34% area of share the past two weeks, he scored a
touchdown in each of the last two games, and I think the
concerns remain the same with him as they, they have with Debo
that I pointed out, you know, they're not a Pass have the
offense, the target share soon as the target tree is more
condensed which is good and you'll take variants at tight
end when you're getting Spike weeks like George Kittle can
provide. But it it's it's just good to
see George kittel back and thriving.
Final note here in the first game without Johnny Smith, sort
of a surprise enacted this past week.
Under Henry's roll, didn't actually change that much.
He was above a 70% routes run rate for the third time this
season but still hasn't had more than four Targets in each of the
last five games. But He's managed to score five
touchdowns in that span. So just crushing every
efficiency metric by that rate. If Smith is out for the game
against the Falcons, this Thursday night than Hunter Henry
is for sure, should be locked into your lineups.
Yeah, you can see I mean I'm looking at these charts like
drawers Kettle and just at the top right of both of these and
is just crushing it right next to Kyle pits.
Have a date, George Kettle. All right, wrapping up the show
here, we're going to talk about the Buffalo Bills.
Top starting with Josh Josh, Allen coming off of the down
week against the Jaguars. Just absolutely crushed it
against the Jets. The bills are top-three and
password over expectation on the season and top three cents week
7. So there they are content
passing the ball and passing the ball time especially when they
get up big which is which is the key and which is what password
over expectation is intended to sort of weed out and try and
that's what what we should be looking for.
But since the week 7 by 4, Josh Alan.
Which has been three games for them has a 5.4 percent cpoe.
3.4% touchdown rate 7.0 adjusted yards per attempt and 7.6
average depth of Target. Like I mentioned earlier that's
correct. That crept up a little bit this
past week, but the other interesting thing is that
Ellen's only had four point three carries per game in those
these last three weeks, but he still have a virgin.
Six, rushing yards per game, so not not worried that, that's not
really, you know, staying a part of his game.
The running back position for the Buffalo Bills.
Always always a lot of eyes on that. and I'm at Breda
frustratingly, had a rushing touchdown and I believe a
receiving touchdown and basically just took the
opportunity to weigh from the under other running backs this
past week but only played on 14 percent of snaps and it's not
that he could be worth an ad I think Is more of a handcuff,
probably to Devin Singletary because Devin singletary's snap
sure dropped down to 38 percent after being at 72% in week,
nine, but not someone, I'm super eager to to go after given the
fact that the Bills running backs are not targeted at a high
rate and again, like I mentioned, the bills are not
running the ball. Tiny either over the last three
weeks. Singletary and Moss are both
averaging fewer than seven carries per game.
They both are averaging. They actually both averaging
right around 10 opportunities per game.
I think some of that is inflated by the week, nine and
Singletary, getting a little bit more work with Zach Moss,
leaving that game for a little bit and Again, I think these two
are sort of what they always have been exact Moss.
Is slightly more valuable because he's playing, he's
consistently been playing since week one.
A higher snap share and gets the goal line work as well as
averaging over one. Greenzo touch per game while
Singletary. Has just one green zone touch
total in the last three weeks. The past pictures for the
Buffalo Bills. Stefon Diggs had his best game
of the season. This past week, which was
phenomenal, great for the ship, chasing crew at 13 targets, 208
area, ards. He ran a route on over 90% of
drawbacks for just the second time this season and the first
time since week one, So really, I hope the downfield targeting
and the excuse me d. Sort of Target, share
concentrating. On digs continues to hold, but
over the last three weeks, he still has a really solid 25
percent Target chair, 34% area are to share, is averaging over
100 Area Arts per game has scored two touchdowns, and is
averaging. Just over nine targets per game.
Has a 0.64 weighted targets per out, run behind him.
It's Cole Beasley, who actually only had Two Targets this past
week after two straight weeks, with at least 11 targets his
routes run. Share dropped to 25.8% excuse
me, week 10, which is, by far a season-low.
The first time he's been below 55 percent in a game.
This season. It's dropped each of the last
four weeks going from 91%, 282 63, and now 26% this past week.
So not sure what's going on there.
And then Emmanuel Sanders, I think has sort of come back down
to earth after his, his big start.
And it's probably probably just the efficiency coming down
because he still has about a 17 yard average depth of Target
over the last three weeks. But He's averaging fewer than
five. Targets per game and he still
has yet to record a game with more than eight Targets in a
game. So that's sort of where you get
the boom and the bust with the receiver like that, with such a
high average average depth of Target, but not consistently
getting targets. But again he's still running the
most rocks on the team, which is The somewhat confusing part, ran
a route has run around on 89%, excuse me up Dropbox, the last
three weeks. I do think it will return.
I guess, sort of Bounce. He'll have a minor bounce back
eventually because he's had over 100 Area Arts in three Hub, is
last four games outside. You know, except for week 10,
you only have 22. So, certainly something to keep
an eye on Dawson Knox was also back in this Game plan a route
on 74% of drawbacks which is good to see only had the one
target. But that's, that's again, sort
of to be expected with just two tight end in general.
And one coming back from injury. All right, final team.
The Los Angeles Chargers. So it's get homeless or here
pushing through a but Justin Herbert, the charters leave of
lost. Three of the last four, not sure
what's going on with them. There's a, there's an article on
PFF. I said I'll read through talking
about some of these changes but it hasn't it hasn't necessarily
been Justin Herbert's fall because they're having him throw
it much much shorter than he had in the past has just a 6.9
average depth of Hit over the last three weeks as a 7.0, you
are interested yards per attempt, 4.7% touchdown rate -
1.2% cpoe but is still averaging 243 passing yards.
Per game. So Herbert like, from a fantasy
perspective, Herbert's fine, I think for him to really unlock
his ceiling. No.
Need to get back to targeting the targeting accent.
Me Mike Williams will talk about here in a second and targeting
him down field as well. As far as the running back
position, Austin Eckler, still holding strong in the driver
seat in that backfield. But again, going to take a quick
look at sort of the handcuffs again here because that's that's
what I think is the most valuable and Justin Jackson I
think, is sort of irrelevant at this point.
He hasn't had an opportunity in the last Two games and Joshua
Kelly and Larry Roundtree have sort of flip flops in each of
the last two weeks and week, nine Kelly had for
opportunities. And now this one this past week
while Roundtree was that one in week 9 and 5 in week 10, but
round three is consistently, had some goal line opportunities,
has two green zones. Touches in the past three weeks
and one in each of the last two weeks.
So I'm prioritizing Roundtree for sure as the handcuffed to
Austin, Heckler for the rest of the season.
Finally the past pictures, Mike Williams, like I mentioned it,
he's down bad right now had a scorching hot start to the
season but has cooled off quite a bit.
Doesn't have more than six Targets in each of the last four
games after having double-digit Targets in three of his first
five games being wild Keenan, Allen has been above 11 Targets
in each of the last Three games. But again, this good thing for
Williams is that his route rocks run rate has risen in each of
the last three weeks and topped out at a 97 percent rate in week
10, which was it the exact same as Keenan, Allen?
In fact, his route run rate the last two weeks at both been
above ninety two percent, which are both both or were both
season Highs at the time. So, You still out there running
a ton of routes just is not consistently.
Getting the targets is average depth of Target, in fact, over
the last three weeks. And again this is more a
function of the offense than I really think his wool.
But his average depth of Target is at equal to 5.
Excuse me while Keenan Allen is that Eight yards as well.
So it's it's really just the targets that aren't there for
Mike Willie Williams and you can sort of see here with the way to
targets per outrun. And I don't have obviously the
receiver chart up here, but Williams over the last three
weeks. Is that 0.35?
Keenan, Allen has double that it is 0.72.
Williams is averaging -3. Fantasy points over expectation
per game over the last three weeks, which is a huge, a huge
amount. But is it is something, you
know, sort of sort of showing that he's not fully taking
advantage. Of those opportunities.
But behind those two, it's a bit of a guessing game as to who the
wide receiver, three is whether it's jail and tighten or
joshjpalmer would probably lean gaytan just because he's running
around and over 50% of drop backs, but neither of them have
more than looks like five Targets in a.
Engle game this season. So not not really from a fantasy
perspective worth looking at Jared.
Cook is averaged four targets per game over the last three
weeks as well and I think is still clearly ahead of
unfortunately, Donald chicken, Parham.
All right. That is.
Almost going to do it for. The show today, despite Crosby
whining and wanting me to get out of here.
I do have one last thing to address.
Had a question from a listener. Last week that I forgot to
answer this is from Pete Rovers at.
He said, I'll take my answer on. Are how do you feel about
someone calling you the data, Daddy?
And, and look, that that comes with the job.
When you're digging through all these stats and want to talk
about metrics, rocks run Target, share area of share.
Its the data is my baby and I'm the date of Daddy.
It's it's been a joy. To do this and to share all
these stats with the listeners. I am going to take my bye week,
next week, do a little R&R. During the Thanksgiving week,
spend some spend some much needed time with the family.
Hope you all have a great holiday as well and can take
advantage of some extra rest. But remember to subscribe to the
To channel become a member for just five dollars a month like
this video. And yeah, subscribe to the
YouTube. Check in with the guys tomorrow
at 9:15 p.m. eastern time and have a great week 11.