1 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:19,000 Hello everybody and welcome to staff facing week 11. 2 00:00:19,000 --> 00:00:21,700 We are in the midst of the NFL season. 3 00:00:21,700 --> 00:00:25,000 My name is Sam Hoffman and I am your host for the show. 4 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:29,600 The fantasy football, playoffs are right around the corner for 5 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:33,100 everyone. One and hope to get you all 6 00:00:33,100 --> 00:00:39,200 prepared for this upcoming week for the playoff stretch as well, 7 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:41,700 if you haven't watched the show before. 8 00:00:41,700 --> 00:00:44,000 First of all, thank you for tuning in. 9 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:48,900 This is where I go through some of the key stats that I think 10 00:00:48,900 --> 00:00:52,300 are important to help lay a foundation for understanding. 11 00:00:52,300 --> 00:00:55,900 What happened this past week, the past several weeks for my 12 00:00:55,900 --> 00:00:59,900 own, edification, and helping set my lineups, and understand 13 00:00:59,900 --> 00:01:03,000 what's Under to happen in the upcoming week. 14 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:09,100 But before I get into the nitty-gritty details of all the 15 00:01:09,100 --> 00:01:14,600 data, want to share the sources of the stats that I'll be 16 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:18,900 walking through. So from PFF, I get all of my 17 00:01:18,900 --> 00:01:23,100 routes data so that's any rap specific metrics targets per 18 00:01:23,100 --> 00:01:26,000 outrun route rate, things like that. 19 00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:29,900 I also use their expected fantasy points. 20 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:34,900 Which is a model built that weights Opportunity by the line 21 00:01:34,900 --> 00:01:38,700 of scrimmage and where a player is targeted where they get carry 22 00:01:39,100 --> 00:01:42,700 stuff like that. And I use this primarily as a 23 00:01:42,700 --> 00:01:47,000 measure of usage to understand which players are getting the 24 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:51,800 most high value opportunities in their offense and potentially 25 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:55,800 are or are not making the most of those opportunities. 26 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:01,800 Where I get the majority of my stats though are from NFL faster 27 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:06,800 which is the NFL's play-by-play data I get are yards from there 28 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:09,199 which is the distance. The ball traveled in the air 29 00:02:09,199 --> 00:02:13,200 before it gets to a receiver weighted opportunity rating a 30 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:16,700 metric that Josh Hermann Maier created a couple years ago that 31 00:02:16,700 --> 00:02:19,800 Waits Target, share and area. I'd share. 32 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:24,500 Also have receiver are conversion ratio which is 33 00:02:24,500 --> 00:02:26,900 receiving yards divided by area Cards. 34 00:02:26,900 --> 00:02:31,400 And is a, an efficiency metric, showing an a receivers ability 35 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:33,600 to convert are yards into actual yards. 36 00:02:34,300 --> 00:02:37,600 Also, have Pacer on the flip side, which is passing air 37 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:41,700 conversion ratio, which is passing yards, /, passing Area, 38 00:02:41,700 --> 00:02:47,700 Arts and shows a quarterback or his receivers ability to convert 39 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:53,000 are yards into actual yards. also have quarterback adjusted 40 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:57,500 yards per attempt, which is yards per attempt, What is 41 00:02:57,500 --> 00:03:02,500 weighted with interceptions and touchdowns and then have a 42 00:03:02,500 --> 00:03:05,300 couple of expectation based stats. 43 00:03:05,300 --> 00:03:10,300 First of all have password over expectation in NFL faster, 44 00:03:10,300 --> 00:03:14,400 they've created a model that identifies the percent chance 45 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:19,100 that a play is a going to be a drop back or a passport team. 46 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:23,300 And then you can use that to calculate a team's expected 47 00:03:23,300 --> 00:03:26,500 pass, Freight, and then subtract that from there. 48 00:03:26,700 --> 00:03:29,600 Actual path straight to get password over expectation. 49 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:34,700 Similarly, have completion percentage over expectations or 50 00:03:34,700 --> 00:03:39,600 cpoe which is a quarterback's again, expected completion 51 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:42,900 percentage or their actual completion percentage over 52 00:03:42,900 --> 00:03:46,300 expected. And again, is it an efficiency 53 00:03:47,300 --> 00:03:52,400 type metric for quarterbacks? Also have a couple of stats 54 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:57,000 popularized by been grex printed the show, waited targets per 55 00:03:57,000 --> 00:04:00,900 outrun, which weights are yards and routes run with a scalar 56 00:04:00,900 --> 00:04:04,000 included. Primarily used this for the wide 57 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:08,200 receiver position to show which players are getting targeted at 58 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:11,200 different depths and how efficient their being their 59 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,200 targets. And then high-value touches 60 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:19,500 which is a running back specific metric is carries inside the 10 61 00:04:19,500 --> 00:04:24,800 yard line and any reception and then we'll also be referring to 62 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:30,200 green zone touches which is any touch reception or carry inside 63 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:36,000 the opponent's 10-yard line and got Crosby in the room here. 64 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:39,700 As you can see him crawling around, but we'll be going 65 00:04:39,700 --> 00:04:44,800 through the stats. By position, so that I can 66 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:47,300 compare against others in the position. 67 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:51,900 And hope you make help you to help you make starts a 68 00:04:51,900 --> 00:04:55,100 decisions, waiver decisions, potentially your final trade 69 00:04:55,100 --> 00:04:59,700 decisions of this season. And then we'll go through a 70 00:04:59,700 --> 00:05:03,300 couple of teams more in-depth, just looking at their situation 71 00:05:03,300 --> 00:05:08,600 as a whole, a couple of final reminders. 72 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:11,700 If you're watching this on YouTube, be sure to like this 73 00:05:11,700 --> 00:05:16,900 video, Subscribe to the YouTube channel and become a member. 74 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:22,300 For just five dollars a month to get early access to this show. 75 00:05:23,500 --> 00:05:26,500 Be able to watch it live, get access to the Discord and a 76 00:05:26,500 --> 00:05:31,800 bunch of other benefits as well. And then one final shout out to 77 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:35,900 act change College on Twitter who has been amazing and adding 78 00:05:35,900 --> 00:05:40,700 timestamps on the YouTube video for each of the positions and 79 00:05:40,700 --> 00:05:44,600 the team conversations that you You The Watcher or listener, it 80 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:49,800 can skip ahead to whatever conversation I guess discussion. 81 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:52,500 I don't know if it's really conversation if it's just me by 82 00:05:52,500 --> 00:05:57,700 myself but whichever one that you want to listen to 83 00:05:57,700 --> 00:06:05,200 specifically. So as I do every single week, 84 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:12,800 I'll be showing a chart on the screen for the video on YouTube. 85 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:16,000 I would highly recommend you watch it on YouTube to be able 86 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:19,000 to see these charts. I usually set to share some of 87 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:21,100 them on Twitter but not all of them. 88 00:06:21,300 --> 00:06:26,600 And starting off with the quarterback position on the 89 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:30,500 x-axis of this chart, have adjusted yards per attempt. 90 00:06:31,500 --> 00:06:36,200 The y-axis have touchdown rate so that's just touchdowns / 91 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:40,800 passing attempts and then the size of a quarterback's bubble 92 00:06:41,100 --> 00:06:47,100 as his rushing yards per game and looking at efficiency here 93 00:06:47,100 --> 00:06:51,300 because that's what drives quarterback scoring. 94 00:06:51,700 --> 00:06:57,200 The most volume is not as much of an indicator for Fantasy 95 00:06:57,200 --> 00:07:00,600 success, for the quarterback position as it is for running 96 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:03,000 back. Back wide receiver and tight 97 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:07,800 end, but one quarterback who has not been that efficient. 98 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:11,000 The last couple games specifically is Matthew. 99 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:16,500 Stafford has played, two Prime Time games against the Titans 100 00:07:16,500 --> 00:07:19,500 last weekend against the student, against the 49ers. 101 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:24,800 Last night and has just been absolutely abysmal. 102 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:31,500 And in those two games, he has a negative 4.8% cpoe. 103 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:37,400 He has a - 0.18 EPA per play. That's expected plated play, 104 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:41,100 which is, is very bad. You want that to be positive? 105 00:07:41,300 --> 00:07:46,600 He's thrown only two touchdowns and four interceptions in those 106 00:07:46,700 --> 00:07:48,800 two games. He's still throwing it a ton and 107 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:53,200 they've had to throw it a ton. Because they've been down in 108 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:57,800 these games so early and he has over 240 passing yards. 109 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:00,800 Per game is to me over 240, pass cards. 110 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:07,500 In each of the two games had 293, I believe last week, and as 111 00:08:07,500 --> 00:08:11,000 a result of all of these interceptions and the lack of 112 00:08:11,008 --> 00:08:15,900 touchdowns has fewer than 12 points per game across the two 113 00:08:15,900 --> 00:08:20,300 games and has fewer than 24 points in obviously those two, 114 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:25,300 Two, two games. Combined So he's going to be 115 00:08:25,300 --> 00:08:29,200 going into his bye week. This week him in the Rams are, 116 00:08:29,900 --> 00:08:33,799 and I'm actually going to talk about the Rams wide receivers 117 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:39,200 later on in the show, to sort of dissect, what happened last 118 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:42,299 night, specifically, obviously Robert Woods is out for the 119 00:08:42,299 --> 00:08:47,900 season, which I honestly think will hurt Matthew Stafford more 120 00:08:47,900 --> 00:08:54,500 than it's being talked about. And maybe that's like the NFL 121 00:08:55,700 --> 00:08:59,500 NFL football guy version of me. Steaming something is like I've 122 00:08:59,500 --> 00:09:04,900 seen a lot of people say that Robert Woods missing is a bigger 123 00:09:04,900 --> 00:09:10,600 deal but in any case I don't think they're sitting Stafford 124 00:09:11,100 --> 00:09:16,500 if you have him except for this week, obviously, but it could 125 00:09:16,500 --> 00:09:19,400 potentially be a by little opportunity. 126 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:24,100 Now, if you've been streaming quarterback all year, if you 127 00:09:24,700 --> 00:09:29,900 have someone in place for week 11 and sort of want to solidify 128 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:35,100 the position, I rarely advocate for trading for quarterbacks, 129 00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:39,500 especially in one quarterback leagues but Stafford outside of 130 00:09:39,500 --> 00:09:44,800 these two games has been phenomenal this entire year and 131 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:49,200 I think they have a fairly favorable schedule down the 132 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:54,200 stretch as well. So certainly something to keep 133 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:59,100 an eye on, they do pass the ball tan again, which I'll get into a 134 00:09:59,100 --> 00:10:04,500 little bit more later on the only other quarterback, that I 135 00:10:04,500 --> 00:10:08,000 really want to talk about is Trevor simmi. 136 00:10:08,100 --> 00:10:13,800 Ian, who hasn't been playing terrible from a both of real 137 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:15,800 life in the fantasy football perspective. 138 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:21,100 Since taking over for Jameis Winston in week 8 has a negative 139 00:10:21,100 --> 00:10:25,900 four point nine percent cpoe which is that's the bad part I 140 00:10:25,900 --> 00:10:31,200 guess with what Simian but has not thrown an interception and 141 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:35,500 his throne five, touchdowns has a 4.8% touchdown rate. 142 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:39,600 Is averaging 15 and a half fantasy points per game. 143 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:44,200 In those three games, has a 7.8 adjusted yards per attempt, the 144 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:50,800 0.93 Pacer, so he's not getting a ton of help from his receivers 145 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:55,000 but the same to do play the Eagles this week. 146 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:59,700 So I do think if you're looking for a Stafford replacement, you 147 00:10:59,700 --> 00:11:06,900 could do worse than then Trevor Simeon and another option to 148 00:11:06,900 --> 00:11:10,200 replace Stafford this week now that I'm thinking about it and 149 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:16,100 looking I don't believe he shows up on on the chart here is Cam 150 00:11:16,100 --> 00:11:20,500 Newton just because he didn't have that many actual passing 151 00:11:20,500 --> 00:11:24,700 and rushing attempts, but it sounds like Cam Newton is going 152 00:11:24,700 --> 00:11:28,200 to the the Panthers are going to do everything that they can to 153 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:32,500 get him to start this upcoming week after Again who 154 00:11:32,500 --> 00:11:36,500 specifically they play but certainly a couple of names that 155 00:11:36,500 --> 00:11:40,300 are likely on your waiver wire to look out for. 156 00:11:40,300 --> 00:11:44,800 If you're looking for a quarterback replacement this 157 00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:53,500 week, The final thing that I'll note with quarterbacks is Josh 158 00:11:53,500 --> 00:11:57,800 Allen's average depth depth of Target, I forget that. 159 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:01,000 I didn't write that down the number specifically but I 160 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:04,000 remember reading in been grouches article or his 161 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:07,200 newsletter ceiling signals, please do subscribe to that. 162 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:10,800 But Josh, Allen's average depth of Target. 163 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:16,800 This past week was the highest in a single game all season, so 164 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:21,200 it's great to see See, him pushing the ball down the field, 165 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:23,100 and maybe that's a product of them playing. 166 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:28,300 The Jets, who do not have a great defense by any stretch, 167 00:12:28,300 --> 00:12:32,400 but is certainly good to see and benefits. 168 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:35,500 Stefon Diggs. I'm going to be actually talking 169 00:12:35,500 --> 00:12:41,700 about the bills later on in the episode a lot of teases today. 170 00:12:44,900 --> 00:12:53,600 Okay, the running back position is as fun as ever, and on x axis 171 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:57,200 of this chart have rushing expected fantasy points. 172 00:12:57,200 --> 00:13:00,000 On the x-axis. Receiving expected fantasy 173 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:06,000 points on the y axis and fantasy points over expectation or F po 174 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:14,600 as the size of The bubble one obviously, one backfield that a 175 00:13:14,608 --> 00:13:18,700 lot of people are paying attention to right now in the 176 00:13:18,700 --> 00:13:24,000 wake of Derrick Henry going down, is the Titans running 177 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:30,100 backs and it's now been two weeks without Henry in the fold. 178 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:37,000 I wouldn't, I would be shocked if Henry came back at all this 179 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:41,600 regular season, given delete. That the Titans have, in the AFC 180 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:46,200 South given, how easy their schedule is down the stretch and 181 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:47,800 then being able to piece together. 182 00:13:48,100 --> 00:13:57,900 Some wins with the guys in this backfield, but in week, 10 183 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:04,600 Deontay Foreman actually was the lead guy for the Titans. 184 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:08,800 He led the backfield and snaps was at 35 percent. 185 00:14:08,900 --> 00:14:14,200 He led them in carries and total yards yet, 30 rushing yards and 186 00:14:14,500 --> 00:14:20,800 48 receiving yards. So over the past two weeks to 187 00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:25,300 again McNichols seems like he's still the past catching back. 188 00:14:25,300 --> 00:14:29,800 He's got an 11 percent Target, share over the past. 189 00:14:29,900 --> 00:14:34,700 Two weeks is only got averaged, excuse me, three targets per 190 00:14:34,700 --> 00:14:38,100 game which isn't spectacular by any means. 191 00:14:38,100 --> 00:14:45,300 But is wanting a route on 32% of drop backs and I think we'll 192 00:14:45,300 --> 00:14:52,300 continue to solidify that passing work but if anyone was 193 00:14:52,300 --> 00:14:57,000 to take it I think it would be form informant had 13 total 194 00:14:57,000 --> 00:15:00,500 opportunities. This past week McNichols only 195 00:15:00,500 --> 00:15:04,600 had seven and Peterson. Only had nine that was after a 196 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:08,300 week in which both McNichols and Peterson had double digits 197 00:15:08,900 --> 00:15:12,800 opportunities. So it's sort of looks like 198 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:17,600 Foreman. Is dating a little Traction in 199 00:15:17,900 --> 00:15:21,000 this backfield. He was the lowest in snap share 200 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:25,700 in their week. Nine game at 21 percent and that 201 00:15:25,700 --> 00:15:27,900 was obviously their first game with Adrian Peterson. 202 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:34,300 But if you look at the snap shares between these two games, 203 00:15:34,500 --> 00:15:38,500 Peterson's been at 33 percent actually both games and make 204 00:15:38,500 --> 00:15:42,400 nickels and Foreman have essentially flopped from week 205 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:44,600 92. Week 10. 206 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:50,400 They've all averaged at least one green zone touch per game 207 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:57,400 which is probably what's most frustrating across the this 208 00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:01,000 backfield is not being able to figure out who the sort of goal 209 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:10,000 line or Red Zone guy is going to be the one thing if someone is 210 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:15,700 Offering like a bigger than expected pot for any one of 211 00:16:15,708 --> 00:16:19,800 these guys, they're all averaging over the past two 212 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:23,400 games, they all have fewer than 11 total expected points. 213 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:29,200 Which I think is a bit of an aberration, the Titans password, 214 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:34,000 over expectation, did drop below zero percent which again is 215 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:37,600 encouraging. If you have invested in This 216 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:43,500 backfield and because again, like they've been a passive 217 00:16:43,500 --> 00:16:45,500 Samia run. First offense, this entire 218 00:16:45,500 --> 00:16:50,900 season with Derrick Henry, with their wide receiver core, being 219 00:16:50,900 --> 00:16:55,500 so hurt with AJ, Brown and Julio Jones, each missing a couple of 220 00:16:55,500 --> 00:16:59,300 games. They also played the Texans this 221 00:16:59,300 --> 00:17:04,400 upcoming week, so it could be a huge spot for any one of these 222 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:06,500 players. And I'm going to take sort of a 223 00:17:06,500 --> 00:17:10,400 Bayesian approach here and and say that foreman if anyone if 224 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:15,099 you want to start anyone whether it's from a DFS or fantasy 225 00:17:15,099 --> 00:17:20,500 perspective Foreman is The guy to play after the Texans they 226 00:17:20,500 --> 00:17:23,000 play. They face at the New England 227 00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:27,800 Patriots, they have a bye week, then they play the Jacksonville 228 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:31,600 Jaguars, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the 49ers in the Miami 229 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:36,600 Dolphins to round out their schedule, which is kind of crazy 230 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:42,600 that there's only seven weeks left after this week is Sue me 231 00:17:42,700 --> 00:17:50,300 six more weeks after the Seven weeks is hard in any case. 232 00:17:52,300 --> 00:17:57,000 Foreman is my pick? I go for me McNichols Peterson 233 00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:01,400 and how I drank these guys because I do think the Titans 234 00:18:01,700 --> 00:18:05,800 their lack of pass, catchers makes it easy for could make it 235 00:18:05,808 --> 00:18:10,500 easy for McNichols to budge in there and earn a larger Target 236 00:18:10,500 --> 00:18:17,600 chair. Moving on. 237 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:24,400 Speaking of a run, first team, the Detroit Lions, rented a ton 238 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:27,700 on Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers in that. 239 00:18:27,700 --> 00:18:29,400 Awesome. Awesome game. 240 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:34,600 That ended in a tie. DeAndre Swift was the man of the 241 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:38,500 hour of though. He set season highs in, snap 242 00:18:38,500 --> 00:18:45,500 chair at 93% at lions, running backs, carries at 87% total 243 00:18:45,500 --> 00:18:50,600 touches which they're at 36. He had the 33 carries which was 244 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:52,500 more than double his career-high. 245 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:58,300 The previously he had a V-8 total percent percent of the 246 00:18:58,300 --> 00:19:03,000 backfield touches. He led the lions in routes And 247 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:06,700 running out, route on eighty four point three percent of 248 00:19:06,708 --> 00:19:11,700 Dropbox, and they only had these 25 passes in this game. 249 00:19:11,700 --> 00:19:18,600 So, not a huge sample there. But again, all all of the other 250 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:24,900 running backs for Detroit, played on fewer than 10% of the 251 00:19:24,900 --> 00:19:28,200 snaps. Now, germar Jefferson, I believe 252 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:31,900 left with an ankle injury part way through. 253 00:19:32,700 --> 00:19:36,900 The game opening the door a little bit for oh gosh. 254 00:19:36,900 --> 00:19:39,900 I've got to check this name before the show but Godwin 255 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:46,000 equate bouquet, equate bouquet I'm not going to try to 256 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:51,200 pronounce that but it's he they Funny enough. 257 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:54,900 They both had a rushing touchdown in the game and Swift 258 00:19:54,900 --> 00:20:00,500 didn't, so they certainly made the most of their opportunities. 259 00:20:00,500 --> 00:20:05,600 But over the last two weeks, both of which have been without 260 00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:12,100 Jamal, Williams has been huge for DeAndre Swift. 261 00:20:12,100 --> 00:20:16,300 He's again, averaging five, high-value touches per game, 262 00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:25,000 averaging 20.2, Expected points per game and crazy enough. 263 00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:29,200 He's averaging -7 fantasy points over expectation per game. 264 00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:32,600 So again, he it's because he's getting all of these 265 00:20:33,500 --> 00:20:39,500 opportunities and hasn't been able to find the end zone. 266 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:46,800 At least not a rushing touchdown but he has a Excuse me, a twenty 267 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:52,200 percent Target cherries running around on 74% drawbacks his 268 00:20:52,500 --> 00:20:55,700 receiving expected points, is that eight per game, which is 269 00:20:56,100 --> 00:20:58,700 absolutely phenomenal. That's where we want to see, 270 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:04,100 really, any work horse running back, they can get the majority 271 00:21:04,100 --> 00:21:06,400 of the carries but really want to see them. 272 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:08,800 Getting worked in the passing game. 273 00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:12,000 He's averaging five and a half targets as well. 274 00:21:12,900 --> 00:21:18,600 So drum are Jefferson. Should be on every team. 275 00:21:18,700 --> 00:21:24,100 If he isn't already Godwin, I am going to call him is definitely 276 00:21:24,100 --> 00:21:29,300 worth a stash if this Jefferson injury is worse than it appears. 277 00:21:29,300 --> 00:21:33,400 And I don't know what the timetable to return for Jamaal 278 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:38,400 Williams is but this backfield gives their running backs, a ton 279 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:41,200 of high-value touches and obviously that's a lot of that 280 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:45,200 is weighted by Swift's opportunity. 281 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:46,500 Shh. With high by touches. 282 00:21:46,500 --> 00:21:51,000 But again, if Swift work to go down God forbid crossing my 283 00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:54,700 fingers, that it doesn't, then literally anyone in this 284 00:21:54,700 --> 00:22:00,200 backfield could be valuable despite the offense being not 285 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:09,700 that great. The next backfield is not 286 00:22:09,700 --> 00:22:13,900 necessarily it is a backfield or wasn't backfield, and now it's 287 00:22:13,900 --> 00:22:17,700 just a back and it's Christian McCaffrey in the Panthers 288 00:22:17,700 --> 00:22:22,800 because McCaffrey's all the way back he or is he that's, that's 289 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:27,900 the question I think. I mean, he's gotten 19 and 23 290 00:22:27,900 --> 00:22:30,600 opportunities in the past two weeks. 291 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:34,300 But his snap share has been at 49% in 15. 292 00:22:34,500 --> 00:22:39,600 Nine percent the past two weeks, so he's not the Panthers are 293 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:44,700 clearly not giving him necessarily the full work low. 294 00:22:44,700 --> 00:22:49,900 And it could be a situation like we saw a couple weeks ago with 295 00:22:49,900 --> 00:22:55,300 AJ Brown, and how they had him essentially playing a full 296 00:22:55,300 --> 00:23:03,500 complement of passing down work. But on The one place they took 297 00:23:03,500 --> 00:23:08,000 him out because they didn't want to risk further injury, which I 298 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:12,600 think is a smart way to play it. And the Panthers were very far 299 00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:18,100 ahead in this game early on forced a couple of turnovers 300 00:23:18,100 --> 00:23:25,300 against the the Cardinals and Christian McCaffrey should have 301 00:23:25,300 --> 00:23:29,000 just had like a monster. Monster game. 302 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:34,700 Kim Newton back. from back, from back, from the dead that sounds 303 00:23:34,700 --> 00:23:40,900 like, vultured a goal-line touch from him and then passed to 304 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:45,300 Robbie Anderson who is also back from the dead, but in any case, 305 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:51,500 McCaffrey did want to route on 67% of the team's Dropbox, which 306 00:23:51,500 --> 00:23:56,900 is his highest rate of the Season, including the two full 307 00:23:56,900 --> 00:23:59,600 healthy games, that he played in weeks, one and two. 308 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:03,700 So that's certainly good to see. He's, he got 10 receptions this 309 00:24:03,700 --> 00:24:07,000 past week is averaging seven over the last two weeks. 310 00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:14,000 The one guy to keep an eye on in this backfield is Ameer Abdullah 311 00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:19,700 because he It seems like he's sort of eclipse. 312 00:24:21,100 --> 00:24:27,500 Chuba Hubbard in, in the pecking order for the Back Field. 313 00:24:27,500 --> 00:24:30,900 This past week. He had 13 total opportunities. 314 00:24:30,900 --> 00:24:35,800 It's the second week that he's had more opportunities than 315 00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:40,900 chuba Hubbard. Abdullah has been act, a 37% and 316 00:24:40,900 --> 00:24:46,500 21% snap share the past two weeks while Hubbard was at 17 317 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:49,500 and 21 percent. So the same for a week 10, but 318 00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:56,900 for more, The opportunities in this game has gotten 9 total 319 00:24:56,900 --> 00:25:01,800 targets over the last two games has four and a half high value. 320 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:07,300 Excuse me, nine high value type is over the last two weeks as 321 00:25:07,300 --> 00:25:10,300 well, compared to just three for Hubbard. 322 00:25:10,300 --> 00:25:14,600 So it seems like there's a bit of a Changing of the Guard. 323 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:18,200 So if Abdullah is out there in your league again, especially 324 00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:21,800 heading into the playoffs, where Wear handcuffs. 325 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:26,200 I believe, add in my opinion a lot more value. 326 00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:31,800 From a floor perspective. If Abdullah is out there, most 327 00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:37,000 certainly worth and add and worth a peek to see if he's out 328 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:42,800 on your waiver wire. A couple of other nuggets at the 329 00:25:42,808 --> 00:25:46,500 running back. Position before I move on to 330 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,800 wide receivers, this is from John Daigle. 331 00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:56,100 He noted that Michael Carter, 16 carries 20 touches and sixty 332 00:25:56,100 --> 00:26:01,100 sixty point six percent share of backfield touches were his most 333 00:26:01,100 --> 00:26:05,300 game most in a game with Tevin Coleman this year, which is 334 00:26:05,300 --> 00:26:11,300 great to see because we hadn't seen Carter in about cow role 335 00:26:11,300 --> 00:26:15,900 while Coleman had been in the line but not I'll be interested 336 00:26:15,900 --> 00:26:20,300 to see where Carter gets drafted, next year, he'll likely 337 00:26:20,300 --> 00:26:25,400 Fall in the running back, Dead Zone, but don't hold me to this, 338 00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:30,600 but I could see him having a swift like season, potentially, 339 00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:34,400 with being in a bad offense, is a teepee, getting depressed, a 340 00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:38,800 little bit. And having just the majority of 341 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:42,900 the backfield opportunities, especially if he's getting The 342 00:26:43,100 --> 00:26:48,000 passing down work. I had a question in the Discord 343 00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:51,400 to talk about the Packers running backs. 344 00:26:53,100 --> 00:26:58,500 Aaron Jones was going to be out for a couple of weeks. 345 00:26:58,500 --> 00:27:02,900 I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see him until after the 346 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:09,600 Packers by in a couple weeks. But Kyle and Hill is out for the 347 00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:13,300 year as well. So Patric Taylor, running back 348 00:27:13,300 --> 00:27:17,200 for the Packers is worth an ad, especially for running back 349 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:21,900 needy teams. He only had two carries in the 350 00:27:21,900 --> 00:27:26,200 game this past week, but he did have one of those was a green 351 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:31,600 zone touch. And you know, that Packers team 352 00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:36,300 wants to seems like they want to run the ball a bit more but JJ 353 00:27:36,300 --> 00:27:42,200 Dillon had let's see. 23 total opportunities in the game with 354 00:27:42,500 --> 00:27:45,400 Aaron Jones going down part way through it. 355 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:49,200 So just a Dylan's gonna be a smash for the next couple weeks 356 00:27:49,700 --> 00:27:53,900 as Aaron Jones group breaks from his injury. 357 00:27:54,900 --> 00:27:59,400 Christian, McCaffrey Dalvin cook and the mentor Darryl Williams 358 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:03,200 were all tied for the league lead in high-value touches with 359 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:08,200 11 in week 10. And I point this out because 360 00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:12,800 Williams had has had at least seven high-value touches in his 361 00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,900 last three games. But it sounds like ceh, could 362 00:28:15,900 --> 00:28:18,700 possibly be back this week if he's not. 363 00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:23,600 Then Williams is definitely a solid start again this week. 364 00:28:25,500 --> 00:28:28,900 In the first game without Chase Edmunds, a lot of eyes were on 365 00:28:28,900 --> 00:28:33,800 James Conner and he got 14 opportunities compared to just 366 00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:37,300 seven opportunities for. You know, Benjamin but Connor. 367 00:28:37,300 --> 00:28:43,500 Did play on a season-high 82% of snaps and ran a route on over 368 00:28:43,500 --> 00:28:47,600 50% of snaps for the second straight week. 369 00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:54,300 So Connor still looking every bit the Workhorse while Edmonds 370 00:28:54,300 --> 00:28:58,500 is out. No, from been in his article or 371 00:28:58,500 --> 00:29:01,900 excuse me in his newsletter. Again, about Antonio Gibson, 372 00:29:01,900 --> 00:29:05,300 coming off the body. I had his highest snap share 373 00:29:05,300 --> 00:29:09,500 since week one had all five of the green teams Greens on 374 00:29:09,500 --> 00:29:13,700 touches but his routes weren't quite as high as the first few 375 00:29:13,700 --> 00:29:18,400 weeks. So a sign that his injury is is 376 00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,600 improving and he's getting healthier. 377 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:27,800 But I think it's a bit of a lost cause of him us wanting to have 378 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:32,400 him, get the full receiving workload, that mckissack debts, 379 00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:38,600 Final note, a couple of notes from Davis Matic actually since 380 00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:43,400 for returning from injury, Elijah Mitchell is sixth amongst 381 00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:47,500 all running backs and fantasy points over expectations and is 382 00:29:47,500 --> 00:29:52,200 fifth in NFL in rushing yards per game and since that time 383 00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:55,000 Trace sermon this this is this really got me. 384 00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:59,400 Tracey Thurman, has more tackles with to, then he has carries, 385 00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:02,400 which is one since Mitchell return from injury. 386 00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:07,900 So it was, there was some news this afternoon to you that 387 00:30:07,900 --> 00:30:11,200 Mitchell. I think broke his finger and was 388 00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:15,700 getting surgery on it. So there's no, I don't know if 389 00:30:15,700 --> 00:30:20,300 there's a timetable to return for him yet, but I mean, I was 390 00:30:20,300 --> 00:30:21,800 ready to say that Trace summer was dead. 391 00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:28,200 But if Mitchell is, in fact out sermon is, is worth picking up, 392 00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:33,100 but Jeff Wilson is definitely the primary guy. 393 00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:37,800 That should be on teams regardless because he got a fair 394 00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:41,600 share of work last night against the rankings. 395 00:30:45,700 --> 00:30:50,400 Okay. Moving on to the wide receiver 396 00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:55,300 position here. On the x-axis of this chart, 397 00:30:55,300 --> 00:31:01,400 have waited targets per outrun on the y-axis have Excuse me 398 00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:03,700 area, arts market, share. And then the size of their 399 00:31:03,700 --> 00:31:09,200 bubble is fantasy points. Over expectation going to start 400 00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:15,300 this section off talking about the Jaguars wide receivers 401 00:31:15,700 --> 00:31:23,000 because it's it's Bleak at least for us bisca fans. 402 00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:28,200 But since DJ Chark went down, this is how sort of the last 403 00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:34,300 five weeks. Are panning out Jamal egg new of 404 00:31:34,300 --> 00:31:38,200 the wide receivers leads the team with a 19 percent Target 405 00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:40,400 share. Marvin Jones is second at 18 406 00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:45,200 percent and Lavista is third at 16%. 407 00:31:47,500 --> 00:31:50,500 Jones is running around on 91% of drawbacks. 408 00:31:50,500 --> 00:31:55,900 Both a new and chenault's are at 73%. 409 00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:01,600 They're all averaging between five and a half in seven and a 410 00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:05,200 half targets per game, which is not. 411 00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:13,400 A ton obviously and is not something to base consistency. 412 00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:16,600 Off of Jamal. Agnew did have a 70-yard 413 00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:21,000 touchdown rush this past week, which was was pretty crazy it 414 00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:26,900 saved his week, he's had double-digit PPR points in. 415 00:32:27,900 --> 00:32:32,200 Oh, now it looks like five of the last six weeks. 416 00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:35,500 So I guess there's a little bit of consistency. 417 00:32:36,300 --> 00:32:39,400 They're Marvin. Jones has an eclipse double 418 00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:44,000 digits in each of the last three weeks either. 419 00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:50,800 And I think some somewhat good news for chennault is that his 420 00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:56,300 average depth of Target was up to 8.1 yards this past week. 421 00:32:56,300 --> 00:33:01,900 That was his highest sense week 5 which was the first game 422 00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:11,600 without charc when it was at 67. So got some more downfield 423 00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:17,400 targets, but it's still the sort of short area, Target his both 424 00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:21,900 him and egg new are at a having a DOT below. 425 00:33:22,100 --> 00:33:30,000 Seven yards while Jones is at thirteen point, six yards, so 426 00:33:31,100 --> 00:33:37,600 from a consistency standpoint and this is what's what's 427 00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:42,100 difficult because there are, I think some opportunities for 428 00:33:42,500 --> 00:33:48,000 some boom weeks here with the Jaguars wide receivers I would 429 00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:53,300 tend to lean towards Marvin Jones, having the opportunity to 430 00:33:53,900 --> 00:33:55,500 have. Again one of those boom weeks 431 00:33:55,500 --> 00:34:00,700 he's had over 100 Area Arts in three of his last five games has 432 00:34:00,700 --> 00:34:05,400 over 50 and every each of his last five games is that at least 433 00:34:05,700 --> 00:34:08,400 five Targets in the last three games. 434 00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:11,699 So again, that's not a huge number of targets but there's 435 00:34:12,199 --> 00:34:15,800 some consistency there. And again, the big thing for me 436 00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:24,000 is the 91% Route 2 / drop back rate that he has has a Jones. 437 00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:31,300 Also has a 0.48, waited targets per outrun, which is below 438 00:34:31,300 --> 00:34:32,500 average. And I think that's sort of 439 00:34:32,500 --> 00:34:36,600 shows. You sort of how bad overall 440 00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:40,199 these. These receivers can be egg. 441 00:34:40,199 --> 00:34:45,800 New actually is above that, x 0.5 to what all all of those 442 00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:49,500 below. The Median, Mark here on the 443 00:34:49,500 --> 00:34:54,699 chart over the last five weeks and it's probably at this point. 444 00:34:54,699 --> 00:34:58,600 Something to stay away from it if possible. 445 00:35:01,500 --> 00:35:04,900 The next group. Of receivers. 446 00:35:05,100 --> 00:35:09,200 I and it's really just one receiver and it's a cover boy 447 00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:13,600 DeVaughn to Smith the Eagles. And I want to talk about him 448 00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:17,600 specifically because the Eagles want to run the shit out of the 449 00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:18,800 ball. Their pass rate over 450 00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:23,100 expectations has been a negative 13 percent or lower in each of 451 00:35:23,100 --> 00:35:27,200 the last four weeks, which is just dead last, they are 452 00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,500 content, running the ball as much as they want. 453 00:35:31,300 --> 00:35:36,400 And yes, the good news is that quiz Watkins deal and rhaegar 454 00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:40,400 and Smith are the only three receivers in on this team. 455 00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:45,800 Getting targets obviously Dallas Kadir, the tied end there is not 456 00:35:47,100 --> 00:35:51,800 Included in that as well. But None of these players have 457 00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:57,000 more than six Targets in a game over the last three weeks and 458 00:35:57,200 --> 00:36:03,700 that is that's even worse than what we saw with the Jaguars but 459 00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:10,300 the good news and why I think devata can Thrive continue to 460 00:36:10,300 --> 00:36:12,500 thrive as one. He's an excellent plan maker, 461 00:36:12,500 --> 00:36:16,800 he's a better receiver than anyone on the Jaguars that I 462 00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:20,100 just mentioned. He has a 41% area I'd share. 463 00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:25,100 Over the last four weeks over that stretch of games that I 464 00:36:25,100 --> 00:36:30,700 mentioned, with the Evo's, passing the ball ton, a 41% area 465 00:36:30,700 --> 00:36:36,700 of share, 28 percent Target, share a 0.68, Whopper a way to 466 00:36:36,700 --> 00:36:42,500 Target Sprout, run of 0.73 which is you know near the top. 467 00:36:43,900 --> 00:36:50,400 Over the last several weeks. And had that fantastic touchdown 468 00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:54,100 catch. In the game this past week, I 469 00:36:54,100 --> 00:36:57,600 believe, if I remember correctly, that was like the 470 00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:01,900 touchdown with the smallest window thrown into this entire 471 00:37:01,900 --> 00:37:05,100 season and just made a spectacular. 472 00:37:05,100 --> 00:37:10,600 Grab is obviously better than Reger and Watkins at this point. 473 00:37:10,700 --> 00:37:18,000 Over his last five games Smith has been at 98 area, ards, or 474 00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:21,000 more in three of his last four he has. 475 00:37:21,300 --> 00:37:26,000 And this is Unnie hit Smith has exactly 22.6 fantasy. 476 00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:29,900 People are points in his last two games in each of his last 477 00:37:29,900 --> 00:37:33,300 two games and this is following his week 8 where it only had two 478 00:37:33,300 --> 00:37:38,500 and a half. So really coming alive at the 479 00:37:38,500 --> 00:37:43,500 right time here but I think and I might have talked about this 480 00:37:43,500 --> 00:37:48,000 group a couple of weeks ago. Quiz Watkins is clearly the 481 00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:51,000 number two receiver in this offense. 482 00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:55,400 Now he's a Were chained just under four targets per game in 483 00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:58,100 the last four games. But regular is just under two 484 00:37:58,100 --> 00:38:03,400 Targets, per game has just an eight percent Target share and 485 00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:08,500 seven percent of the area ards in the, in that stretch regular, 486 00:38:08,500 --> 00:38:12,200 it's only running a route on 71% of Dropbox. 487 00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:18,700 While Watkins is pretty much neck and neck with Smith at 90%. 488 00:38:18,700 --> 00:38:24,800 So Watkins and Smith. Probably the only two Eagles 489 00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:28,100 wide receivers worth rostering right now. 490 00:38:28,100 --> 00:38:35,400 Again given how little they want to pass the ball but again they 491 00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:38,800 might be forced to pass the ball in some of the weeks to come. 492 00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:45,200 We'll see about that. On the flip side, a team that 493 00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:48,300 loves passing. The ball, is the Chiefs and I 494 00:38:48,700 --> 00:38:52,800 rarely talk about the Chiefs and teams like the Chiefs, because 495 00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:57,400 we pretty much have them figure it out, but I thought it was 496 00:38:57,400 --> 00:39:00,000 time to take a look because Patrick Mahomes kind of looked 497 00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:04,300 like his old self the other night for parts of the game, and 498 00:39:04,300 --> 00:39:09,900 wanted to see if there is any value in any of the receivers 499 00:39:09,900 --> 00:39:15,900 behind Tyree kill who's having just a phenomenal season Once 500 00:39:15,900 --> 00:39:21,000 Again in the last five games. Averaging, over 12 targets per 501 00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,600 game. It's a 27 percent Target, share, 502 00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:28,900 38% area, I'd share over 130 28 yards per game. 503 00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:32,200 It, I mean he's just crushing it. 504 00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:36,500 So I'm not going to talk about Hill who I want to talk about 505 00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:43,100 are the receivers behind him because it's been a bit of a mix 506 00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:47,900 between Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle and Michael Harmon and 507 00:39:47,900 --> 00:39:52,700 Josh Gordon has just done nothing for this team. 508 00:39:52,700 --> 00:39:58,000 He just has three total Targets in the last three games and 509 00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:03,200 doesn't have any catches. He he's not worth roster and if 510 00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:10,200 if he was still on your roster but in any case, the thing to 511 00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:15,900 note here is that Miko Hardman this past week, ran her out on 512 00:40:15,900 --> 00:40:23,700 only 33% of drawbacks, which is by far a season-low, his lowest 513 00:40:23,700 --> 00:40:29,000 before that was at 59%, which was just two weeks ago at in 514 00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:33,200 week 8. But this is just this is the 515 00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:35,000 first time that it's our second time. 516 00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:40,700 I guess that's been below 60%. Meanwhile Byron Pringle had a 517 00:40:40,700 --> 00:40:49,100 season High 67% route rates in week, 10, after not being above 518 00:40:49,100 --> 00:40:54,500 50% in any week before this past week. 519 00:40:54,500 --> 00:40:59,500 So again, if we're looking at this one game, it looks like 520 00:40:59,500 --> 00:41:03,900 Byron Pringle. May have supplanted Miko 521 00:41:03,900 --> 00:41:09,300 Hardman. And Pringle had 73 are yards in 522 00:41:09,300 --> 00:41:12,900 this game. He had 121 Area Arts back in 523 00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:20,400 week 7 and is just a little looking better than Pringle at 524 00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:25,300 the at this point over the last five weeks, Pringles. 525 00:41:25,300 --> 00:41:29,500 That a nine percent Target share me, Cole Harmons at a 12 percent 526 00:41:29,500 --> 00:41:36,700 Target share and I do think that Pringle is worth in a diff This 527 00:41:36,700 --> 00:41:40,600 point, it's not it's not exciting and I don't think I'd 528 00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:48,200 slap him into a lineup right away. but if this continues, 529 00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:55,200 then, That he's basically Miko Hardman and I think, you know, 530 00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:58,500 there's obviously been a lot of hype around me Cole, Harmon in 531 00:41:58,500 --> 00:42:04,800 the past and Pringle has a 0.45. Weighted targets per outline 532 00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:08,600 over the last five weeks, we call hardens just had 0.38. 533 00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:14,800 So getting slightly more work in that regard. 534 00:42:14,900 --> 00:42:18,600 Heart racing, you Pringles averaging about a half of half 535 00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:23,200 a, an expected Point per game over the last just five weeks as 536 00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:25,700 well. So just sort of reading the tea 537 00:42:25,700 --> 00:42:30,200 leaves here and it seems like it could have been because the 538 00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:33,300 Chiefs are up so big in and they wanted to get Pringle more 539 00:42:33,300 --> 00:42:36,900 involved. But I tend to lean that again 540 00:42:36,900 --> 00:42:42,100 that they kept I re-kill on there for quite a while as well. 541 00:42:42,300 --> 00:42:45,800 And so I think he Pringle is worth worth an act here. 542 00:42:48,900 --> 00:42:53,200 Okay, I mentioned it earlier Sure, I'm going to talk about 543 00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:57,600 the Rams wide receiver situation. 544 00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:02,200 Here a little bit obj Auto Beckham jr. 545 00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:07,000 Was in the lineup. I just get paid to G last week. 546 00:43:07,300 --> 00:43:13,400 He was in the lineup, but only ran a route on 25% of the team's 547 00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:18,000 Dropbox had three targets caught, two of them for 18 548 00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:23,000 yards, that's 68 area, ards obviously, had that long deep 549 00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:30,200 shot that Stafford through the ugly pick on, but Just didn't 550 00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:34,200 didn't really play enough to get a sense of how he's going to be 551 00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:38,700 used at, like I mentioned the Rams enter their bye week this 552 00:43:38,700 --> 00:43:43,600 week and then get the, the Packers, the Jaguars Cardinals 553 00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:47,700 and Seahawks. So maybe that gives them more 554 00:43:47,700 --> 00:43:54,800 time to have Odell Beckham jr. At just to this offense because 555 00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:59,800 I'm sure it's much much different than what he was doing 556 00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:08,800 with the with the Browns. But the other person or persons, 557 00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:13,100 I guess to talk about our vintage a person and someone 558 00:44:13,100 --> 00:44:20,200 baby named been skaro neck. And scour neck, I'm just going 559 00:44:20,200 --> 00:44:24,000 to call Ben Ben had five targets last night. 560 00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:29,700 Jefferson did have seven targets of his own if he Jefferson has 561 00:44:29,700 --> 00:44:34,700 had, at least six Targets in each of the last four weeks. 562 00:44:34,900 --> 00:44:40,900 Jefferson ran a route on 97% of drop backs and has been above 563 00:44:41,200 --> 00:44:44,800 eighty eight percent in each of the last four weeks. 564 00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:50,900 He is Is actually averaging, excuse me, last night, he had 17 565 00:44:50,900 --> 00:44:56,900 and a half expected fantasy points and had -9 fantasy points 566 00:44:57,300 --> 00:45:02,400 over expectation because he drops a touchdown and a couple 567 00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:10,100 other passes as well, but on the season, his played pretty decent 568 00:45:10,100 --> 00:45:15,200 and it's getting for sure, a full share of routes and I think 569 00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:18,700 will continue to do so. With Robert Woods, like I 570 00:45:18,700 --> 00:45:22,700 mentioned being out for the year here. 571 00:45:22,700 --> 00:45:26,700 So we'll see if Stafford and some trusting Jefferson after a 572 00:45:26,707 --> 00:45:30,500 couple of of bad drops. But I'm not really worried about 573 00:45:30,500 --> 00:45:33,800 the ancillary pieces here because the Rams have had a 574 00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:36,100 positive pass right over expectation, in every single 575 00:45:36,100 --> 00:45:39,300 game this season, and their fourth and password, over 576 00:45:39,300 --> 00:45:45,700 expectation cents, week seven. So Jefferson again certainly 577 00:45:45,700 --> 00:45:50,700 worth. Rostering and I think could be a 578 00:45:50,700 --> 00:45:56,100 viable flex plate in the right spot and Odell Beckham jr. 579 00:45:56,100 --> 00:46:00,200 At, I might wait until after they play the Packers to see 580 00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:05,800 what he looks like in that game before, plugging him into my 581 00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:08,400 lineup. Coat Cooper cup as solid as 582 00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:12,000 ever. Had 13 targets for the third 583 00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:18,100 time in the last four games and the fifth time, I'm Sydney, 584 00:46:18,100 --> 00:46:20,000 fourth time. This season has double-digit 585 00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:24,100 Targets in every single game except we gate and it's just 586 00:46:24,700 --> 00:46:27,900 blowing out the water. Didn't quite get you there last 587 00:46:27,900 --> 00:46:30,600 night without a touchdown, but he's still a stud. 588 00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:37,300 And one of the fantasy MVPs of the season, A couple of again 589 00:46:37,300 --> 00:46:41,400 final nuggets on the wide receiver position in his first 590 00:46:41,400 --> 00:46:43,600 game back. Michael Gallup saw five targets 591 00:46:43,600 --> 00:46:46,100 and ran a route on 58% of drawbacks. 592 00:46:46,100 --> 00:46:50,600 He had a really nice lawn catch that he almost scored on. 593 00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:54,500 So really good to see him back if he was for whatever reason 594 00:46:54,500 --> 00:46:58,500 dropped in your league be sure to go snatch them up this week. 595 00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:03,800 In the past, two games without Henry rugs. 596 00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:08,800 Here's how the Raiders Target Shares are flushing out. 100 597 00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:13,400 Renfro has a 22.6% Target, shared during Waller at twenty 598 00:47:13,400 --> 00:47:16,700 nine, twenty one point, nine percent, and then nobody else is 599 00:47:16,700 --> 00:47:23,100 above 13%, and it's Kenyan Drake at 12.9 drops Jacobs at 11.40, 600 00:47:23,500 --> 00:47:26,700 Brian networks at 10 and safe zones at eight and a half. 601 00:47:26,700 --> 00:47:31,800 So, It seems like Renfro and Waller are just going to get 602 00:47:32,100 --> 00:47:39,100 boosted up without anyone really taking over the Henry rugs role. 603 00:47:39,100 --> 00:47:44,000 If you will, the Sean Jackson had a long catch against the 604 00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:47,100 chief Sunday night and then fumbled it. 605 00:47:47,100 --> 00:47:52,000 So then walked off the sign like sideline, visibly frustrated but 606 00:47:52,000 --> 00:47:56,600 we'll be interested to see if He gets any more run in the games 607 00:47:56,600 --> 00:47:59,200 to come. T. 608 00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:04,900 Y Hilton did one a season High 72 percent of routes and have 609 00:48:04,900 --> 00:48:09,300 five targets and looked pretty decent I guess. 610 00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:14,900 So yeah, we're worth keeping an eye on Hilton for and then this 611 00:48:14,900 --> 00:48:20,300 from been Greg saliva more found the end zone late but ran around 612 00:48:20,300 --> 00:48:24,600 not just 52% of Dropbox. Corey Davis was back in return 613 00:48:24,600 --> 00:48:29,700 to a full roll running. A route on more than 90% drop 614 00:48:29,700 --> 00:48:33,900 back so I believe and Jamison Crowder had a season High routes 615 00:48:33,900 --> 00:48:38,200 one share. So I don't really understand. 616 00:48:38,200 --> 00:48:41,000 I mean, he sort of split the, the widest, a three roll with 617 00:48:41,000 --> 00:48:44,600 Keel and Cole. Hopefully that sort of smooth is 618 00:48:44,600 --> 00:48:51,600 itself out and more sort of solidifies himself as the wide 619 00:48:51,600 --> 00:48:57,200 receiver three, but something something to monitor, for sure. 620 00:49:01,900 --> 00:49:07,400 Now, wrapping up this, this position specific conversations 621 00:49:08,100 --> 00:49:11,900 with someone who seems like the Talk of the Town. 622 00:49:12,700 --> 00:49:16,300 These days, the football cognoscenti is having a field 623 00:49:16,300 --> 00:49:20,300 day with Dan Arnold right now. And all it took was him. 624 00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:24,300 All it took was getting him away from Sand Arnold for him to 625 00:49:24,300 --> 00:49:29,200 thrive over the last There are two tight ends that have scored 626 00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:32,300 at least 10 PPR fantasy points in each of their last three 627 00:49:32,300 --> 00:49:34,700 games. That's Dan Arnold and Evan 628 00:49:34,700 --> 00:49:37,000 engram. That's from Keith Cummings over 629 00:49:37,000 --> 00:49:44,000 at CBS, and then at 11th and Levitan pointed out over his 630 00:49:44,300 --> 00:49:50,300 last five games, his Target share has been above 20% in each 631 00:49:50,300 --> 00:49:55,900 of those five games and has been an over 20% in three of those 632 00:49:55,900 --> 00:49:56,600 five. Games. 633 00:49:56,600 --> 00:50:01,500 So truly an elite Target, share for a tight end. 634 00:50:01,500 --> 00:50:07,700 Overall, in those five games has a twenty percent Target, share 635 00:50:07,700 --> 00:50:11,100 is averaging seven and a half targets per game, which again is 636 00:50:11,100 --> 00:50:14,200 phenomenal. His route per drop back. 637 00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:19,400 Rate has risen in each of the last four games he's had topping 638 00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:23,500 out at 81 percent. This past weekend is averaging 639 00:50:23,800 --> 00:50:27,200 10, PPR points per game. So for a tight end, that makes 640 00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:34,100 him a tight end one, and it's really just playing solidly for 641 00:50:34,100 --> 00:50:36,500 sure. I think is will be interested to 642 00:50:36,500 --> 00:50:42,500 see his price for DFS this week because he's been below 4K. 643 00:50:42,500 --> 00:50:45,900 I believe the last several weeks and has been a smash at that 644 00:50:45,900 --> 00:50:50,000 price but we'll see. We'll see where it's there. 645 00:50:50,600 --> 00:50:54,900 Had a request from Teemo in the Discord talk about Troutman 646 00:50:54,900 --> 00:50:59,400 season. And I was confused and I thought 647 00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:04,200 I missed something, but nope, Troutman, still kind of bad has 648 00:51:04,200 --> 00:51:09,100 not scored above 10, PPR points at all this season, had a point 649 00:51:09,100 --> 00:51:15,100 to this past week 8.7 that week before, and maybe this is what 650 00:51:15,900 --> 00:51:18,900 he's talking about, but he's had at least six Targets in each of 651 00:51:18,900 --> 00:51:23,000 the last three weeks, which sort of coincides with Simeon 652 00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:30,300 started. and, Yeah, I mean he has that many targets which 653 00:51:30,300 --> 00:51:33,100 again I talked about just mentioned and Ehrlich seven and 654 00:51:33,100 --> 00:51:35,900 a half per game in his last five. 655 00:51:35,900 --> 00:51:41,600 I mean, just over six per game is, is pretty solid for a tight. 656 00:51:41,600 --> 00:51:45,900 End is well into on Johnson is pretty much a non-factor at this 657 00:51:45,900 --> 00:51:51,800 point after looking, like he could have a solid role entering 658 00:51:51,800 --> 00:51:53,800 the season. But what's really weird about 659 00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:58,400 Troutman to is that he was at a fifty seven and a half. percent 660 00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:02,100 routes run rate this past week, which is the first time that 661 00:52:02,100 --> 00:52:10,600 it's dipped below, sixty six percent since week for so, I 662 00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:13,900 don't really get it, I would not trust traveling in my lineup. 663 00:52:13,900 --> 00:52:18,400 I don't think that offense has nearly as high of a ceiling as 664 00:52:18,400 --> 00:52:23,100 it once did. Speaking of players that are 665 00:52:23,100 --> 00:52:25,700 back and tight ends that are really good. 666 00:52:25,700 --> 00:52:28,000 George kittel is all the way fucking back. 667 00:52:28,000 --> 00:52:32,500 He leads the team with a 22, extremely 26, percent Target, 668 00:52:32,500 --> 00:52:36,600 share and 34% area of share the past two weeks, he scored a 669 00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:41,500 touchdown in each of the last two games, and I think the 670 00:52:41,500 --> 00:52:46,900 concerns remain the same with him as they, they have with Debo 671 00:52:46,900 --> 00:52:50,300 that I pointed out, you know, they're not a Pass have the 672 00:52:50,300 --> 00:52:54,800 offense, the target share soon as the target tree is more 673 00:52:54,800 --> 00:52:58,700 condensed which is good and you'll take variants at tight 674 00:52:58,700 --> 00:53:02,400 end when you're getting Spike weeks like George Kittle can 675 00:53:03,400 --> 00:53:06,200 provide. But it it's it's just good to 676 00:53:06,200 --> 00:53:09,000 see George kittel back and thriving. 677 00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:16,000 Final note here in the first game without Johnny Smith, sort 678 00:53:16,000 --> 00:53:18,200 of a surprise enacted this past week. 679 00:53:18,300 --> 00:53:21,400 Under Henry's roll, didn't actually change that much. 680 00:53:21,400 --> 00:53:26,800 He was above a 70% routes run rate for the third time this 681 00:53:26,800 --> 00:53:31,400 season but still hasn't had more than four Targets in each of the 682 00:53:31,400 --> 00:53:35,300 last five games. But He's managed to score five 683 00:53:35,300 --> 00:53:39,000 touchdowns in that span. So just crushing every 684 00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:44,600 efficiency metric by that rate. If Smith is out for the game 685 00:53:45,000 --> 00:53:47,600 against the Falcons, this Thursday night than Hunter Henry 686 00:53:47,600 --> 00:53:53,400 is for sure, should be locked into your lineups. 687 00:53:57,000 --> 00:53:59,800 Yeah, you can see I mean I'm looking at these charts like 688 00:54:00,000 --> 00:54:03,700 drawers Kettle and just at the top right of both of these and 689 00:54:03,700 --> 00:54:06,600 is just crushing it right next to Kyle pits. 690 00:54:08,300 --> 00:54:12,900 Have a date, George Kettle. All right, wrapping up the show 691 00:54:13,400 --> 00:54:17,100 here, we're going to talk about the Buffalo Bills. 692 00:54:17,100 --> 00:54:22,800 Top starting with Josh Josh, Allen coming off of the down 693 00:54:22,800 --> 00:54:27,700 week against the Jaguars. Just absolutely crushed it 694 00:54:27,700 --> 00:54:33,300 against the Jets. The bills are top-three and 695 00:54:33,300 --> 00:54:38,500 password over expectation on the season and top three cents week 696 00:54:38,500 --> 00:54:41,200 7. So there they are content 697 00:54:41,200 --> 00:54:45,200 passing the ball and passing the ball time especially when they 698 00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:49,300 get up big which is which is the key and which is what password 699 00:54:49,300 --> 00:54:53,900 over expectation is intended to sort of weed out and try and 700 00:54:53,900 --> 00:54:56,300 that's what what we should be looking for. 701 00:54:56,300 --> 00:55:00,400 But since the week 7 by 4, Josh Alan. 702 00:55:00,700 --> 00:55:05,700 Which has been three games for them has a 5.4 percent cpoe. 703 00:55:06,200 --> 00:55:12,300 3.4% touchdown rate 7.0 adjusted yards per attempt and 7.6 704 00:55:12,700 --> 00:55:15,900 average depth of Target. Like I mentioned earlier that's 705 00:55:16,500 --> 00:55:18,000 correct. That crept up a little bit this 706 00:55:18,000 --> 00:55:20,600 past week, but the other interesting thing is that 707 00:55:20,700 --> 00:55:27,000 Ellen's only had four point three carries per game in those 708 00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:30,500 these last three weeks, but he still have a virgin. 709 00:55:30,700 --> 00:55:34,100 Six, rushing yards per game, so not not worried that, that's not 710 00:55:34,100 --> 00:55:40,000 really, you know, staying a part of his game. 711 00:55:44,900 --> 00:55:48,500 The running back position for the Buffalo Bills. 712 00:55:48,500 --> 00:55:57,100 Always always a lot of eyes on that. and I'm at Breda 713 00:55:57,100 --> 00:56:01,600 frustratingly, had a rushing touchdown and I believe a 714 00:56:01,600 --> 00:56:05,600 receiving touchdown and basically just took the 715 00:56:05,600 --> 00:56:08,900 opportunity to weigh from the under other running backs this 716 00:56:08,900 --> 00:56:15,700 past week but only played on 14 percent of snaps and it's not 717 00:56:15,700 --> 00:56:21,200 that he could be worth an ad I think Is more of a handcuff, 718 00:56:21,600 --> 00:56:25,900 probably to Devin Singletary because Devin singletary's snap 719 00:56:25,900 --> 00:56:31,100 sure dropped down to 38 percent after being at 72% in week, 720 00:56:31,300 --> 00:56:39,100 nine, but not someone, I'm super eager to to go after given the 721 00:56:39,100 --> 00:56:44,200 fact that the Bills running backs are not targeted at a high 722 00:56:44,200 --> 00:56:48,100 rate and again, like I mentioned, the bills are not 723 00:56:48,100 --> 00:56:51,200 running the ball. Tiny either over the last three 724 00:56:51,200 --> 00:56:53,500 weeks. Singletary and Moss are both 725 00:56:53,500 --> 00:56:56,800 averaging fewer than seven carries per game. 726 00:56:57,800 --> 00:57:02,200 They both are averaging. They actually both averaging 727 00:57:02,200 --> 00:57:04,600 right around 10 opportunities per game. 728 00:57:04,600 --> 00:57:08,800 I think some of that is inflated by the week, nine and 729 00:57:08,800 --> 00:57:11,500 Singletary, getting a little bit more work with Zach Moss, 730 00:57:11,800 --> 00:57:17,900 leaving that game for a little bit and Again, I think these two 731 00:57:17,900 --> 00:57:21,700 are sort of what they always have been exact Moss. 732 00:57:21,700 --> 00:57:24,600 Is slightly more valuable because he's playing, he's 733 00:57:24,600 --> 00:57:26,600 consistently been playing since week one. 734 00:57:26,600 --> 00:57:34,400 A higher snap share and gets the goal line work as well as 735 00:57:34,400 --> 00:57:37,800 averaging over one. Greenzo touch per game while 736 00:57:37,800 --> 00:57:40,100 Singletary. Has just one green zone touch 737 00:57:40,300 --> 00:57:48,900 total in the last three weeks. The past pictures for the 738 00:57:48,900 --> 00:57:54,800 Buffalo Bills. Stefon Diggs had his best game 739 00:57:55,300 --> 00:57:58,100 of the season. This past week, which was 740 00:57:58,100 --> 00:58:04,700 phenomenal, great for the ship, chasing crew at 13 targets, 208 741 00:58:05,100 --> 00:58:09,000 area, ards. He ran a route on over 90% of 742 00:58:09,000 --> 00:58:13,700 drawbacks for just the second time this season and the first 743 00:58:13,700 --> 00:58:21,700 time since week one, So really, I hope the downfield targeting 744 00:58:21,900 --> 00:58:29,200 and the excuse me d. Sort of Target, share 745 00:58:29,600 --> 00:58:33,400 concentrating. On digs continues to hold, but 746 00:58:33,400 --> 00:58:36,700 over the last three weeks, he still has a really solid 25 747 00:58:36,700 --> 00:58:41,700 percent Target chair, 34% area are to share, is averaging over 748 00:58:41,700 --> 00:58:46,600 100 Area Arts per game has scored two touchdowns, and is 749 00:58:46,600 --> 00:58:49,900 averaging. Just over nine targets per game. 750 00:58:49,900 --> 00:58:54,600 Has a 0.64 weighted targets per out, run behind him. 751 00:58:54,600 --> 00:58:59,200 It's Cole Beasley, who actually only had Two Targets this past 752 00:58:59,200 --> 00:59:05,600 week after two straight weeks, with at least 11 targets his 753 00:59:06,500 --> 00:59:12,900 routes run. Share dropped to 25.8% excuse 754 00:59:12,900 --> 00:59:15,700 me, week 10, which is, by far a season-low. 755 00:59:15,700 --> 00:59:20,300 The first time he's been below 55 percent in a game. 756 00:59:20,600 --> 00:59:23,700 This season. It's dropped each of the last 757 00:59:23,700 --> 00:59:32,800 four weeks going from 91%, 282 63, and now 26% this past week. 758 00:59:32,800 --> 00:59:36,900 So not sure what's going on there. 759 00:59:37,300 --> 00:59:42,200 And then Emmanuel Sanders, I think has sort of come back down 760 00:59:42,200 --> 00:59:46,900 to earth after his, his big start. 761 00:59:46,900 --> 00:59:51,700 And it's probably probably just the efficiency coming down 762 00:59:51,700 --> 00:59:55,300 because he still has about a 17 yard average depth of Target 763 00:59:55,500 --> 00:59:58,900 over the last three weeks. But He's averaging fewer than 764 00:59:58,900 --> 01:00:02,200 five. Targets per game and he still 765 01:00:02,200 --> 01:00:06,300 has yet to record a game with more than eight Targets in a 766 01:00:06,308 --> 01:00:09,300 game. So that's sort of where you get 767 01:00:10,200 --> 01:00:13,900 the boom and the bust with the receiver like that, with such a 768 01:00:13,908 --> 01:00:18,500 high average average depth of Target, but not consistently 769 01:00:18,500 --> 01:00:24,100 getting targets. But again he's still running the 770 01:00:24,100 --> 01:00:28,900 most rocks on the team, which is The somewhat confusing part, ran 771 01:00:28,900 --> 01:00:33,700 a route has run around on 89%, excuse me up Dropbox, the last 772 01:00:34,400 --> 01:00:39,100 three weeks. I do think it will return. 773 01:00:39,600 --> 01:00:42,300 I guess, sort of Bounce. He'll have a minor bounce back 774 01:00:42,600 --> 01:00:47,100 eventually because he's had over 100 Area Arts in three Hub, is 775 01:00:47,100 --> 01:00:49,800 last four games outside. You know, except for week 10, 776 01:00:50,400 --> 01:00:53,700 you only have 22. So, certainly something to keep 777 01:00:53,700 --> 01:00:58,100 an eye on Dawson Knox was also back in this Game plan a route 778 01:00:58,100 --> 01:01:04,600 on 74% of drawbacks which is good to see only had the one 779 01:01:04,600 --> 01:01:07,600 target. But that's, that's again, sort 780 01:01:07,600 --> 01:01:10,700 of to be expected with just two tight end in general. 781 01:01:10,700 --> 01:01:20,800 And one coming back from injury. All right, final team. 782 01:01:22,000 --> 01:01:29,300 The Los Angeles Chargers. So it's get homeless or here 783 01:01:30,000 --> 01:01:34,900 pushing through a but Justin Herbert, the charters leave of 784 01:01:34,900 --> 01:01:37,800 lost. Three of the last four, not sure 785 01:01:37,800 --> 01:01:40,400 what's going on with them. There's a, there's an article on 786 01:01:40,400 --> 01:01:42,100 PFF. I said I'll read through talking 787 01:01:42,100 --> 01:01:46,700 about some of these changes but it hasn't it hasn't necessarily 788 01:01:46,700 --> 01:01:51,200 been Justin Herbert's fall because they're having him throw 789 01:01:51,200 --> 01:01:56,900 it much much shorter than he had in the past has just a 6.9 790 01:01:56,900 --> 01:02:01,800 average depth of Hit over the last three weeks as a 7.0, you 791 01:02:01,800 --> 01:02:07,200 are interested yards per attempt, 4.7% touchdown rate - 792 01:02:07,200 --> 01:02:13,300 1.2% cpoe but is still averaging 243 passing yards. 793 01:02:14,400 --> 01:02:16,500 Per game. So Herbert like, from a fantasy 794 01:02:16,500 --> 01:02:20,500 perspective, Herbert's fine, I think for him to really unlock 795 01:02:20,500 --> 01:02:21,400 his ceiling. No. 796 01:02:21,400 --> 01:02:27,100 Need to get back to targeting the targeting accent. 797 01:02:27,100 --> 01:02:32,000 Me Mike Williams will talk about here in a second and targeting 798 01:02:32,000 --> 01:02:38,400 him down field as well. As far as the running back 799 01:02:38,400 --> 01:02:44,700 position, Austin Eckler, still holding strong in the driver 800 01:02:44,700 --> 01:02:51,000 seat in that backfield. But again, going to take a quick 801 01:02:51,000 --> 01:02:55,600 look at sort of the handcuffs again here because that's that's 802 01:02:55,600 --> 01:03:02,800 what I think is the most valuable and Justin Jackson I 803 01:03:02,800 --> 01:03:05,800 think, is sort of irrelevant at this point. 804 01:03:05,800 --> 01:03:12,800 He hasn't had an opportunity in the last Two games and Joshua 805 01:03:12,800 --> 01:03:18,600 Kelly and Larry Roundtree have sort of flip flops in each of 806 01:03:18,600 --> 01:03:21,000 the last two weeks and week, nine Kelly had for 807 01:03:21,000 --> 01:03:24,000 opportunities. And now this one this past week 808 01:03:24,000 --> 01:03:31,100 while Roundtree was that one in week 9 and 5 in week 10, but 809 01:03:31,200 --> 01:03:37,300 round three is consistently, had some goal line opportunities, 810 01:03:37,300 --> 01:03:40,700 has two green zones. Touches in the past three weeks 811 01:03:41,400 --> 01:03:43,400 and one in each of the last two weeks. 812 01:03:43,400 --> 01:03:48,800 So I'm prioritizing Roundtree for sure as the handcuffed to 813 01:03:49,200 --> 01:03:52,500 Austin, Heckler for the rest of the season. 814 01:03:55,300 --> 01:03:59,300 Finally the past pictures, Mike Williams, like I mentioned it, 815 01:03:59,300 --> 01:04:04,200 he's down bad right now had a scorching hot start to the 816 01:04:04,200 --> 01:04:08,700 season but has cooled off quite a bit. 817 01:04:08,700 --> 01:04:13,600 Doesn't have more than six Targets in each of the last four 818 01:04:13,600 --> 01:04:18,000 games after having double-digit Targets in three of his first 819 01:04:18,300 --> 01:04:23,700 five games being wild Keenan, Allen has been above 11 Targets 820 01:04:23,700 --> 01:04:30,200 in each of the last Three games. But again, this good thing for 821 01:04:30,200 --> 01:04:34,400 Williams is that his route rocks run rate has risen in each of 822 01:04:34,400 --> 01:04:41,900 the last three weeks and topped out at a 97 percent rate in week 823 01:04:42,700 --> 01:04:47,700 10, which was it the exact same as Keenan, Allen? 824 01:04:47,700 --> 01:04:52,600 In fact, his route run rate the last two weeks at both been 825 01:04:52,600 --> 01:04:56,600 above ninety two percent, which are both both or were both 826 01:04:56,900 --> 01:05:02,600 season Highs at the time. So, You still out there running 827 01:05:02,600 --> 01:05:06,100 a ton of routes just is not consistently. 828 01:05:06,100 --> 01:05:11,000 Getting the targets is average depth of Target, in fact, over 829 01:05:11,000 --> 01:05:12,700 the last three weeks. And again this is more a 830 01:05:12,707 --> 01:05:16,200 function of the offense than I really think his wool. 831 01:05:16,200 --> 01:05:19,600 But his average depth of Target is at equal to 5. 832 01:05:21,200 --> 01:05:26,200 Excuse me while Keenan Allen is that Eight yards as well. 833 01:05:26,200 --> 01:05:31,700 So it's it's really just the targets that aren't there for 834 01:05:32,000 --> 01:05:39,100 Mike Willie Williams and you can sort of see here with the way to 835 01:05:39,100 --> 01:05:41,500 targets per outrun. And I don't have obviously the 836 01:05:41,508 --> 01:05:45,000 receiver chart up here, but Williams over the last three 837 01:05:45,000 --> 01:05:47,400 weeks. Is that 0.35? 838 01:05:48,500 --> 01:05:52,200 Keenan, Allen has double that it is 0.72. 839 01:05:53,200 --> 01:05:58,000 Williams is averaging -3. Fantasy points over expectation 840 01:05:58,300 --> 01:06:02,800 per game over the last three weeks, which is a huge, a huge 841 01:06:02,800 --> 01:06:08,000 amount. But is it is something, you 842 01:06:08,000 --> 01:06:11,500 know, sort of sort of showing that he's not fully taking 843 01:06:11,500 --> 01:06:14,900 advantage. Of those opportunities. 844 01:06:14,900 --> 01:06:22,500 But behind those two, it's a bit of a guessing game as to who the 845 01:06:22,500 --> 01:06:25,200 wide receiver, three is whether it's jail and tighten or 846 01:06:25,600 --> 01:06:32,600 joshjpalmer would probably lean gaytan just because he's running 847 01:06:32,600 --> 01:06:38,800 around and over 50% of drop backs, but neither of them have 848 01:06:39,100 --> 01:06:43,000 more than looks like five Targets in a. 849 01:06:43,100 --> 01:06:47,700 Engle game this season. So not not really from a fantasy 850 01:06:47,700 --> 01:06:50,200 perspective worth looking at Jared. 851 01:06:50,200 --> 01:06:53,900 Cook is averaged four targets per game over the last three 852 01:06:53,900 --> 01:06:57,600 weeks as well and I think is still clearly ahead of 853 01:06:57,700 --> 01:07:00,600 unfortunately, Donald chicken, Parham. 854 01:07:03,400 --> 01:07:06,300 All right. That is. 855 01:07:07,900 --> 01:07:14,700 Almost going to do it for. The show today, despite Crosby 856 01:07:15,200 --> 01:07:16,700 whining and wanting me to get out of here. 857 01:07:16,700 --> 01:07:19,300 I do have one last thing to address. 858 01:07:19,300 --> 01:07:27,600 Had a question from a listener. Last week that I forgot to 859 01:07:27,600 --> 01:07:30,100 answer this is from Pete Rovers at. 860 01:07:30,900 --> 01:07:33,300 He said, I'll take my answer on. Are how do you feel about 861 01:07:33,300 --> 01:07:35,600 someone calling you the data, Daddy? 862 01:07:35,600 --> 01:07:38,700 And, and look, that that comes with the job. 863 01:07:38,900 --> 01:07:42,500 When you're digging through all these stats and want to talk 864 01:07:42,500 --> 01:07:47,000 about metrics, rocks run Target, share area of share. 865 01:07:47,800 --> 01:07:51,500 Its the data is my baby and I'm the date of Daddy. 866 01:07:52,000 --> 01:07:57,800 It's it's been a joy. To do this and to share all 867 01:07:57,800 --> 01:08:02,400 these stats with the listeners. I am going to take my bye week, 868 01:08:02,400 --> 01:08:07,800 next week, do a little R&R. During the Thanksgiving week, 869 01:08:07,800 --> 01:08:11,600 spend some spend some much needed time with the family. 870 01:08:11,600 --> 01:08:18,100 Hope you all have a great holiday as well and can take 871 01:08:18,100 --> 01:08:23,700 advantage of some extra rest. But remember to subscribe to the 872 01:08:23,899 --> 01:08:27,399 To channel become a member for just five dollars a month like 873 01:08:28,100 --> 01:08:31,399 this video. And yeah, subscribe to the 874 01:08:31,399 --> 01:08:34,100 YouTube. Check in with the guys tomorrow 875 01:08:34,100 --> 01:08:41,300 at 9:15 p.m. eastern time and have a great week 11.