What's up ship Chasers? You have been asking for it when
stat chasing winced at chasing. Well we are back and we are
super excited to keep the tradition going a couple years
ago. Pat crane kick this off last
year, Sam hopping passed on the Baton or continued the Baton and
now we Have two more of our community members.
You guys know these guys, you've seen Sam drafting on stream with
us last year. Hanging out in the Discord.
Of course Connor AKA Draco. The 2021 best fall.
Main Event champ in rotovap, is contributor here to super super
sharp guys that you guys are in great hands with today.
I know some of the stuff they got in store for you guys.
I've seen some of the charts, everything is going to be as
good as it has ever been. So Sam and Draco, welcome, To
the show, excited to see what you guys have in store for us.
Yeah, thank you very much for for asking us to do this.
We really appreciate it. Yeah.
The Pelican people needed at Sam and I would say to I see I've
seen the charts, I feel like you guys haven't missed a beat and
and what we like to do here on statch acing.
Yeah for sure we definitely got a got a lot of inspiration from
how Pat and Sam hop and ran the show in past years.
And we're trying to build on it, make it a little different.
Obviously, it'll be different with two of us on the show
instead of just one person. So yeah.
You know, we're going to run with it.
See how it goes and excited to be kicking this off to that.
Yeah. And so obviously we recording
this on Wednesday evening. I think the hope is as we
progress and get a little more streamlined, that will push up
the recording time a little bit. Earlier, I know Pat and Sam
would normally record on Tuesdays, but we're going to
experiment. We're going to see what works
best for these guys. But regardless we're going to
get you all those sweet sweet stats.
What can people expect this year Draco?
Because I did give you guys kind of free rains.
If you had different ways to format, it different things that
were interesting to you. Can you give people a teaser
here before you guys jump into the meat?
Yeah, for sure. So we're definitely a some said
standing on the shoulders of joints and so we are Started, I
guess this week, we're going to start off pretty close to what
Sam meant hopping did last year but like some chairman said, we
are, we're looking to iterate this week.
So we, I think we talked about this this week, it's going to
come out after waivers. So we're going to come out at
more of an angle of the best ball.
That Resurrection. Hmm.
And and what did we learn in week, one?
And we're at. Where is there on the right?
On the reactions and what's the the kind of best spot to attack
that? So, That's awesome.
Yeah, I think that's a great. And I like the idea of, you
know, we now have so many options for Action.
Like, initially with this started I was like, oh, help you
with waivers and then it so. Well, this helps you with DFS
trend-setting your lineup. Now we have all of these Battle
Royale contests on Underdog in the resurrection, of course do
so. I think any time you guys can
apply this stuff to actionable things that people are are
participating in. That's definitely a win for the
show. And that we had, we had been
talking kind of like, oh, and I've done this before, where
it's like, oh, how do you apply this to trades and stuff like
that? But my, my experience at least
has been when you're trying to react to new information by
doing trades. It's really hard at their
leagues out there, where it's really difficult to wet to
actually make trades happen. And where is this?
Is like, okay, well you're doing it, dropped all over again.
And like that that is the to me that's the most one of the most
actionable ways to like actually Implement new information for
sure. I agree with that.
Alright I am going to leave you guys to get to the good stuff
here. I should also mention as always
if you guys want to join us and talking about all of this stuff
and strategy, the ship chasing Discord is a great place to be.
We have a great crew in there and I think in the future to we
Even make some of these available live for YouTube
members so we can, we can experiment with that.
But I just wanted to introduce you guys all officially to the
new co-hosts of stat chasing. And I'm going to drop off here
and let you guys do the rest. That's good.
Be thank you guys. Great.
All right, so the handcuffs are not behind closed, you know.
They're all parents. The parents are out of town.
It's just yeah, the stabilizer wheels are off the bike.
Yeah, cool. Well, yeah, Drinker did a good
job of giving sort of an overview of what we're going to
try to accomplish here, but just to get a little bit into the
weeds of how the format at, this is going to work, we're going to
go through all the keys skill positions in fantasy.
So obviously quarterback running back wide.
EPrint tight end and be cover it and will be covering a key set
of stats. For each of those often looking
at some sort of crosstab of efficiency versus opportunity
and synthesizing, some key takeaways from week one.
So yeah. Unless you have anything else to
add up top trick? Oh, then why don't we dive into
thinking got it, I've got it. Sounds good.
So starting starting at the quarterback position, just to
orient people watching this video to the Chart.
We have TD rate on the y axis here, and adjusted yards per
attempt, which takes guards, for example, adjust it for
interceptions and touchdowns. And we're looking at all the
starting quarterbacks in week, 1 here.
And I guess the other thing to note is the bubble size here,
indicates rushing yards. You'll see some of the jail and
Eric's. Mario has it cetera pop out for
that? So yeah, I guess my question
here is Draco, is there anything on this chart that really jumped
out to you anywhere where you think we should really be
updating our priors on a particular player?
Curious, curious, your thoughts here.
So, yeah, and the first thing that I kind of noticed here is
that for all the Pharrell, the Tang of how Russell Wilson kind
of like he looked bad on there on Monday night that A pretty
high. Yeah, it's for a tensor adjusted
yards per attempt. I think it's like 8.1 and like
his season of career. High is a point tree.
So iíve heard kind of like discussion of like, hey is, does
Russell Wilson still have it? But despite that not a, not I
guess looking aesthetically as good as people are used to or am
trying. Yeah, as many touchdowns is
people are used to, I do I think it is very interesting that his
yards per attempt was still very good.
Yeah. Yeah, that is interesting.
Especially with the way he spread the ball around on Monday
night. You didn't and we'll get to this
later when we go to other positions but you didn't really
see any one player, sort of dark dominate Target, share their.
So it's certainly an interesting offense to watch.
I agree with you. I think the general like casual
takeaway is Ross, lost the Seahawks, like he's done, he
doesn't have it anymore, but I am not certainly, not buying
that narrative. I think there was a lot of fluky
stuff. Again there with the goal line
fumbles, that sort of thing, certainly be, you look kind of
how I am and one of the concerns about Russell Wilson heading
into the season is okay. So obviously I could is not,
he's not sharp with the decisions that we saw, one of
the concerns was that they were going to run the ball too much,
or they might run the ball too much for him to really score a
lot of points. But I think, let me let me pull
up. The exact number, but he had
around that 45 and he got, he had 45 Dropbox in the game.
To me. I'll get the game was
competitive, obviously, but that said, that's definitely plenty
of volume for for him to be a productive posture.
Yeah, totally agree. Yeah, and yeah, we'll see you
there. I think like It was you know,
the Denver was forced to throw but I think the game was still
relatively slow, if I remember correctly with the Seahawks run,
the ball quite a bit. So we'll see if Once Denver sort
of gets in fast-paced she doubts you could really see some some
big games for Ross and the pass catchers there.
Okay, cool. I guess.
Moving on some more targeted questions.
I'm curious what you think about Daniel Joe.
Jones Week, 1 the day ball offense.
I think there's a lot of talk, this all season about Oka,
Daniel Jones, make the the Josh, a leap, you know, obviously, I
think that's an extreme range of outcomes, but right, he does
show up quite well on this chart.
This, this chart is hiding the fact that he only had 22 tab.
So keep in mind like they were trying to hide him.
It was limited attempts. But on his attempts he was quite
efficient. And his rushing yards also sort
of pops out here, which is, you know, a skill.
He's known to have. Do you have any thoughts?
Daniel Jones, sort of, you know, more, so, in a best of all sets
of like it's a main event 1qd man, right?
So, and my kind of thoughts where if you remember, he was
always very popular. Fallback option of hey, you
missed the quarterbacks that you actually wanted a draft.
Here's Josh Alan. Here's a story that you can tell
yourself about the new coach and he's got the rushing upside and
so you drop them and pray. And and if I die so I didn't
take him too much, I am, but so maybe there's a bias here for
me, but I almost think if the hiding him if they're like, the
low number of Dropbox is, that's what a good coaches doing is
like, the good coach is like, okay, well, I've seen I've seen
what happens when pressure is on you and how do I, how do I take
that off your shoulders? And obviously, he's doing a
solid job here where the efficiency has been there, but
the combination of low number of Dropbox and then just how good
Sake. One Berkeley looked like he was
like old Sake, One Barkley Superstar.
And now I'm thinking if that were me and obviously, I'm
nowhere, like, I'm an idiot. So I am not in this guy's shoes,
but but if we were me, I'd be like, okay, Sake One Barkley,
super star running back shaky quarterback that I can make look
good on few attempts. It kind of it kind of looks
like. This is going to be a psych 1.
Berkeley write them out, like, he's the star player of the
offense. Yeah, Daniel Jones is the game
manager? Yep.
I think a larger group that's it.
I think this the way I read, this is more, so this is good
for Sake. One Berkeley that Daniel Jones
can confidently manage, right. An offense as a game manager,
not necessarily exciting for Jones and himself.
But at the same time like Out, I'm not down on Jones after
this, I think it is somewhat interesting that he was
efficient Week 1. But again, yes, such a low
sample. Like I'm not, I'm not
overreacting too much here. Okay cool, maybe that's hit some
quick other quick notes at quarterback for move on to
running back. The one other thing I had and
then entrecote feel free to share other thoughts.
You had. I thought the borough rushing
yards here was was interesting just because that was something
he did Flash. His rookie year and actually
propped up his floor and a ceiling combo.
Quite a bit as a rookie when he wasn't passing super
efficiently. I don't know exactly what
happened this game. Whether it was a result of T,
Higgins, being injured, sort of, forced to scramble more.
Whether that Olan was really getting beat up by the Steelers
not force him to run a bit. I'm not exactly sure quite a bit
of pressure. Yeah, yeah.
So that's yeah, that's that's sort of where I do I guess
there. But I think it is promising.
He showed, he might have a little bit more rushing than he
did last year. Right off that they see out
there but yeah that's that's one thought I think, I think that's
a great point and especially when he's shown the upside of
are being this Uber, all efficient quarterback.
If you can add that to, if you can add take that, and add a
pretty solid rushing air floor, such ceiling.
I think that that's pretty huge. And, and we were talking about
kind of like, how do you implement and Underdog
Resurrection stuff. And we were talking about this,
the qb5 Jalen hurts goes in the fort rounds.
Qb1. Josh Allen goes in the second
round. Where's how, how do you, how do
you build a great team in this tournament and without paying
through the nose for quarterback will Joe burrow who we know is
extremely good. Now, runs a lot more and he goes
in the seventh round like that that at to me that's Very yeah.
Attractive spot to go after. Yeah.
I agree. And also some of his if you
watch the game some of his pics or true fluke interceptions like
defensive line than picking up, picking up tip balls, at the
line of scrimmage like he did makes a bad plays in that game.
But if the market is overreacting to a badge over a
week one, I am, I'm totally right.
I mean, I have bad days and you have bad days, right?
Everybody has bad days. It doesn't mean that the name of
shit. Yeah.
Totally agree. Okay, cool.
And it anything here on the quarterback position.
You want to hit on Draco before we move on to two running backs.
And the only that it's kind of a small thing and but Ryan
Tannehill and looks a lot better.
Our, he did look a lot better than he did last year, and he
looks at not quite as good as he was in 19 and 20 20, and but I
do think it's interesting that he played well and it wasn't on
it. and of, like short as, Sorry.
Yeah I do think it is interesting that he played well
especially when I will get to it later that there are some
rookies kind of like the Target that have been discounted and
that the court the Tennessee quarterback is playing well is
definitely interesting I think Agreed, agreed.
There's some other Value Pass catchers for sure.
They're that, that will get to at wide receiver.
Awesome. Okay, let's let's move on to
running back. So for running back here.
We are looking at expected fantasy points from PFF.
So what you'll see here for those watching on YouTube, on
the y-axis you have receiving expected fantasy points and on
the x-axis you have rushing expected fantasy points.
So for those who Aren't familiar.
You can kind of think of it as some kind of formula that
translates touches and targets to expected fantasy points.
So, obviously, a rush to get on the one-yard line is going to be
worth more expected fantasy points than a rush.
You get, you know, at the 40-yard line that, that sort of
thing is factored in there to that statistic.
So, as you can see on the chart here, there's also we also broke
down the chart into different bands.
So in this green area at the top, Op, right, that's players
with 20 plus expected fantasy points.
And then, in the yellow region, there, it's those sort of
middling 10 to 20 expected fantasy points.
And then finally, that red region there 02:10 expected
fantasy points. So, that's just the simple sum
of rushing, and receiving the last thing.
A lot of the shirt are be guy, 10 to 20 expected points is not
middle. And to me, I'm having a party
when I get 10. That's true for.
Yeah, for my main. and teams I would be happy with like nine
expected that that's and I'm looking at you, Melvin Gordon
shortening, but actually they did.
Okay? This week we're getting what I
learned on this chart but away Tony Pollard.
Who someone under Main Event team was begging us.
Draft only part, I think it was Draco.
I don't quite remember. He did not do.
It wasn't me? Yeah.
I uh I don't know. You were in Vegas.
You probably don't have a great memory for that sort of thing.
But yes, right. The last thing allowed in this
chart is the size of the bubble represents fantasy points.
Over Expected. So the larger the bubble, the
more efficient, the player was the larger, the smaller the
bubble, talking to you, Joe Mixon, the less efficient you
were. So with that said, drink, I'll
kick it to you again, what is sort of your key, takeaways,
what things jump out to you from this slide here and so he is are
right? He is our cover boy.
And but the thing that jumped out most to me, was Antonio And
being that 20-plus expect fantasy points.
And so he was a guy who a lot of people including me or drafting
at the one to turn last year because he'd shown and his
rookie year how good he could be as a rusher, we're excited at
the prospect that he could add and receiving part to his game
and now to me to see him actually do that and And be
reasonably efficient in the receiving game.
And I think that's very interesting because in fantasy
football, when you're targeting the unpack, rain has done a
great job breaking this down and when you're targeting, these are
running backs. You want the, the season
Breakers, the guys who can crush the season.
And one of the most important components of that is 10
expected, rushing yards, rushing points and 10.
It points from receiving and for him to add that to his game, I
think is super exciting and some I guess some of the concepts are
more of the context for that is that this game.
Mckissick only saw two Targets at Gibson saw eight.
And and what was also interesting is that it came as
Washington, we're passing. More.
They had that they were actually above and passes over expected
and but they did well doing it. And so there's like, I guess
there's a question of like, how well could he sustain that?
And that's what I'm, that's what I'm trying to tease out a little
bit and to me the fact that they came in passing that they
prioritized showing it to him over mckissick, he was supposed
to be the receiving back and, and We know how good you can be
as a rusher and he's gone in the seventh round and I think
probably efficient ATP is Turtle for it round so I think he's a
massive value there. What do you think?
Yeah, I think I am not as high as you in third or fourth round
but I agree that he is a by the seventh round price.
I think I'm still a little worried about how it's going to
be split up once bro. And Robinson's back and the
latest news seems pretty good for him there.
But right that said at the seventh round price that's
already baking. And a lot of that risk and I
don't think with how well Gibson's play and they're going
to be able to completely take him off the field.
So I think his floor is still pretty solid there in the
seventh round with with tons of upside.
So I would be buying them up to probably, you know, the fifth
plate, fifth area and I assume I'll be able to do that because
I don't think the market will React too much, right?
I don't think he's not going to go up to the third or fourth
round, but I guess I'm more buying into the upside case.
I'm like we've seen since we've seen him, make these huge plays
like he's a as an actor he's a stud.
So to me that's where I'm kind of like not as worried about him
like losing a workload just because if he's on if he's now
on the field I'm kind of like almost four Ejecting him to make
those sort of plays just because we've seen it so many times
before but um yeah he's always been good.
Like when he's been on the field be seen the long explosive plays
long explosive catches. I am definitely excited about
Antonio Gibson this week. I was buying him when it's
pressed her to fall and BBM but I don't think quite enough I
certainly wish I had right? I'm feeling light right now.
Yeah yeah I was taking about the big discounts but that was about
it. Quickly on this chart, I'm gonna
zoom into another Shard. I think it's worth.
It's worth noting Jonathan. Taylor, Joe Mixon and Javonte
Williams, all had insane workloads, Javonte is, was
insane for his receiving workload, at over 20 expected
receiving fantasy points, which is ridiculous.
Almost makes me wonder if I fucked up this chart because
it's so ridiculous. And then Taylor Nixon saw a
combination of very heavy Russian workloads with a lot of
targets, but I think like, People know those guys are our
studs. I think maybe we can focus on
some other names in this chart, so I'm going to zoom in to.
We pay Equity expected points Gods.
Yeah, we have to talk about own Affairs.
Yeah. Yep.
I agree. They, if you I mean I if you own
any of those guys, you I think should certainly be excited.
So, trigger, one thing I wanted to talk about I think there's
been a little bit Of panic, on some high round.
One, round two running backs. I think the three that people
are panicking most about right now.
Are Christian McCaffrey, Derrick, Henry, and Alvin
Kamara. This chart here would suggest
that Chimera is the one you should be panicking.
Most about growing. You agree with that, or do you
have any other takes on the three of those guys.
How we should be thinking about? One of them.
So and I do think and when you're, I guess 22 players that
we're talking about here are a little bit older.
Yeah. And those are those are the the
players that I guess you have to be most worried about just
hitting a cliff because it's one of those things of like hey
they're fine, they're fine, they're fine, unemployed and
Wait, yeah Arif and it does it does seem puzzling them.
He his usage is just so low like I guess the you know if there's
like a Solid explanation for not or yeah, I couldn't figure that
out and I think Mark Ingram played quite a bit but he
doesn't even pop anywhere on this chart.
So, you know, I think the narrative that you're going to
hear is Jamis is not good for fantasy running backs.
That's something we saw in the past in Tampa Bay for some years
where he was propping up, Chris Godwin.
He was propping up like evidence these massive fantasy years.
Here's where the running backs, you know, Peyton Barber, Ronald
Jones, maybe Doug Martin were there with them were not really
producing, especially in the passing game.
So there could be sort of a game, the game style class year
between Chimera Angie - that's, that's my best explanation but
yeah I don't know if it's some injury were not aware of just
weirdness of Week 1, but the Chimera usage was, you know,
shockingly shockingly Low, especially in a game where they
were trailing, most of the game, which you'd expect, you know, to
be a strong suit from receiving side.
Yeah, so the other thing, the thing about am so I do see
actually, I do see an injury. He had a rib injury.
But the one thing I do think is interesting about Henry is that
one of the big things about him was that, hey he's at he's our
Bell cow like he's the guy who they want to get the ball to and
last year, one of the things that we saw bit more and is that
they start showing them the ball more and before I got hurt, and
I do think it's interesting that Dontrelle Hillary Hillard.
I hope I'm saying that right. Got a couple of targets that's
like okay. Well now we're now he's
definitely you don't have the out of like, okay, maybe he's
going to get Targets this year. You really do need him to be the
all World rusher and I do remember last year, he started
out kind of sluggish and he started out not being that.
There can read that. We remember or at least in
performance and so I don't want the rule out that and that's
possible but that that he's definitely not getting targets
the same way as last year is a big.
I think that's a fairly big hit and I don't really like just
hoping that another running back.
Just has it the same way they used to.
Yeah, I'm with you. I think I'm a little more
optimistic on, right? Henry from the perspective that
hey, you know, they're going to get two games against the Jags
and get two games against the Texans.
He's going to get 30 touch 35 touches in one of those games
and rip off some big runs. Like, I think, from like a DFS
perspective in games where he's not projected to be highly
owned, I still would be chasing. That ceiling for Derrick Henry,
I still think it's there that said A managed sort of redraft
League. I think I'll probably be out at
whatever is his prices because that past catching, which
propped up all the ceiling and floor there that have have
largely dropped out. But, yeah, I'm not, I'm not full
panic mode if you drafted Derrick, Henry, but it wasn't a
great great week, right? Obviously, you're not, you're
not at you're not quoting them. Yeah.
Yeah, unless you're in the 14, League, maybe you're cutting,
Derrick Henry, okay? Other things on running back
before we move on that. I wanted to point out.
I thought a couple committee situations were interesting.
You got the Bears where if you see in this chart here in the
yellow zone here, you have both Cleo Herbert and David
Montgomery quite close to each other Herbert.
Actually, a bigger rushing workload with Montgomery a
bigger receiving workload. I think that is quite Ting.
If you were to project Herbert for more of a Russian or Club in
Montgomery and week one, I don't think anybody was doing that.
I also want to point out the Eagles are interesting in that
both mile Sanders and Kenneth gain.
Well, we're getting close to that 15 expected Point range.
I was buying a lot of them this offseason because I thought it
was going to be good offense. I wasn't sure which back was
going to be producing, but if Offense roles like that.
I think both those guys are looking like, very solid values
with upside, of one of them to wear to go down.
But yeah, that's just two situations.
I wanted to point out, we're both backs are quite close and
expected Point usage, maybe in an unexpected way.
Yeah, any thoughts, there Draco, or any other things that jumped
out to you on some of these? These guys are mmm.
So I do too, I do tend to agree with you.
There the Eagles running back sir.
Definitely ideal. Later round targets.
And one thing that I do think is interesting, is that boat res
Hall and Michael Carter, and we're close to 15 expected
receiving points, which is fairly bananas.
And so, let me let me pull up some air, that's not.
So I mean every not to interrupt you.we saw we sort of saw this
last year with the my quite and Joe Flacco games.
If you remember, Rose Wilson, go down went down.
Is running backs and also a large more started to see this
insane. You should.
So yeah. Continue before you're going to
say I know, Joe Flacco, he had 62 Dropbox.
Yeah, the Ravens and them it does very much seem like he is
the the reincarnate are there. Alex Smith.
Probably not as good though, but it's just going to heavily
Target, these, a these running backs and obviously a lot of a
lot of the, the T and X are just because the Ravens are so good.
But I don't think it's unreasonable to expect that the
Jets to be bad again. And in - game scripts and as
long as the quarterback is not an exact Wilson and and either
either Joe Flacco or the the my quite and who was it was a guy
last year. They're receiving the receiving,
those look pretty good there for both of them.
I don't think it's going to it's probably not going to be enough
to really take Bruce Hall at home and but Michael Carter.
It looks very very nice. Yep.
Yeah, your love and Carter when you got them around, pick 130
140 this all season. He's up at around.
Pick 100 in the best for Resurrection right now.
I think that's fair. I think I would still be buying
there. All right, but I'm not enthused
not entirely surprised. Yeah, but yeah, I agree.
The Jets are going to be bad, they're going to be throwing a
lot. He's got a pretty large role in
this offense, you know, as long as Joe Flacco's in there, I'm
I'm pretty excited about Michael Carter.
One sec Wilson is back. We will see ya.
Last thing I wanted to point out couple Dead Zone in this red
region. Here we have a mix of some sort
of classic DeadZone guys. We got Josh, Jacobson Zeke,
Elliot in there and then we also got a lot of sort of the Sexes
years. You are be pricey targets, being
Devon, single Dairy from Andre Richard, white, Tony Pollard,
none of them have Damien. Pierce, are you throwing that
bucket To None of Them had strong weeks, want weak, ones is
there anybody among that group that you are still excited about
in sort of like either the 0 RB darling or dead zone?
Yeah. So and I'm still very interested
in Devon Singletary and and maybe maybe this is a take
grinder. Take but and I just saw he looks
so much better than all the other running backs in week one.
I am, so maybe. Yeah.
And obviously it's frustrating to see Zach Wilson.
I think he caught what eight targets and that is very
frustrating, but the fact that he didn't play very well with it
and makes me still interested in Singletary.
Just as a guy who can get the role for himself just being by
back being so much better than the other players.
And and Notre. I guess when her point there is
that it is kind of nice to see yet, you know, Benjamin get and
for his price get what looks like a?
I mean it's not great but and a solid kind of role and that
could expand as the season goes on.
Yep. Yeah.
I think, I think, you know, and Richard white, they both there's
on some uncertainty if they were given the clear number two's.
I think it's pretty Clear, they both are.
I think even some of that you know, stuff to be honest, was
propped up a little bit by the garbage time.
You got a lot of work when the Cardinals are getting completely
blown out, but it's still good to see him being on the field
over Darryl Williams, Darryl Williams at zero snaps.
So if you drafted, you know, you got what you paid for it and a
little bit more, I think cool. So, yeah, that's I think that
covers a lot in the running backs.
Why don't we move on? To wide receiver.
Unless any last thoughts to go or no, no, I'm good.
I've got Cool. So on the wide receiver side,
let me describe the graphic here on the y-axis.
We're measuring catch rate. Pretty straightforward on the
x-axis. We're showing waited targets per
route run. So what that is, is targets per
route run, but weighted toward waited with are yards.
So Target, 100, you know, 50 yards down the field.
This worth more than screen Target, that's basically factors
that in again, these are from PFF, and then, the bubble size
here is showing yards after catch.
So, you'll see some of the yak monsters like AJ, Brown and Dee
Bost Samuel, you know, in theory pop here.
But, again, this is one week of data.
So, I do, especially when at the size that with the wide
receivers that one week of data is extremely noisy, but I still
think we can get some interesting take, A ways from it
but it's by no means sort of the definitive truth.
On any of these guys. As this one, one week of data
last thing, before I could get to drink out this chart here,
we're going to break this down into three charts because there
are a lot of wide receivers this.
We're just going to be talking about wide receivers, who ran
more than 90% of routes on their quarterbacks drawbacks on this
chart here. And then we have two more with
wide receivers running 75 to 90% And then sort of Fringe
rotational wide receivers running 35, to 75 percent.
So we're going to be sort of breaking it down to those three
categories there. So Draco for these you know wide
receivers who are basically running all the routes, right?
I mean if you make it on this chart, congratulations you're a
full-time NFL receiver. If?
Yeah, you can still be running wind Sprints as a full-time NFL
wide receiver, you can just ask Matt Collins about that but
still congrats to you you are Are on the field.
Yeah trick out. Anything here that jumps out to
you. Maybe a guy whose role looks
better than we thought going into the season and so one thing
that I do think is interesting is I see DK DK Metcalf, he's on
the the above 90%, Roots, Run chart and then his dad teammate.
Tyler rocket is on the next. Chart.
And I guess, the reason I think that's interesting is because
normally Week one is when the kind of older players are at the
peak of their powers. Like that's normally when they
can play the most amount of snaps and be the most
competitive. Where's it's later in the
season. When those younger players and
can kind of like separate from not from like, I'm not saying
that, the came at cuff is like some rookie but he's younger.
You would hope him the enough for to not fade down the
stretch, like, an older prayer. And yeah I do think like
obviously the yeah the quarterback situation isn't
ideal and but he he had some salt like a 24 and without
waiting it for Eric are yards to 24% and targets per run.
And he yeah, he had and then he's also going in the sixth
round. And so I do think for a player.
Sure, of that kind of caliber who is really kind of like
starting to show themselves to be the number one wide receiver
on their team and I do I do think that's interesting.
Yeah I'm with you there on that calf.
I was not on in the bunch of the offseason I think that was
probably not not the best take I also think Gino like you know
wasn't great like No One's Gonna confuse you to sweat that some
All-Star, you know, All-Pro quarterback but He is going to
keep the offense competent. I believe you showed that you
showed that last year he showed that again last night.
He's not going to be throwing down the field making you know,
traumatic huge plays but he can move the sticks.
He can get the ball to Decay Metcalf and I think he can get
it to lock it a little bit and we know with Metcalf.
You can take a slant and take it to the house.
Anytime he doesn't even need a great quarterback to do that.
He has that huge Yak ability. So in the sixth round I think
Metcalf. Is is a massive by I am, I'm
with you there? What one guy I wanted to point
out on this chart was what's Cristian Kirk?
And let me quickly check where he's going.
I got a free ATP of around 60 if you have around 60.
Okay, that is interesting. So the market has reacted
aggressively there to Kirk. I think I would, I think I'm
okay with that EDP. I thought it was going to be
lower than that. Not is not a priority Target
there, but I do think if you drop the Kirk this offseason he
had a great role week. One in Arizona.
He was often times running out of the slot and not running
greater than 90% of routes if I remember correctly.
So it's you know they paid him like a true.
Number one wide receiver. That was his role in week one.
We'll see if Trevor Lawrence can play a little bit better and
sort of, you know, keep everybody afloat in this offense
but I'm certainly excited. If I own Cristian Kirk again,
back to the ADP, I think 6080 of 60 sort of big sin that correct,
right? For America degrees with you.
Yeah. I think the market is
appropriately. Reacted there.
Yeah. Draco.
And you guys are panicking on after week one.
There's there's some, there's some scary scary names and some
bad areas in this less like devant Les Smith CD lamb.
Mike Williams that a pretty awful week.
George Pickens and Allen Robinson.
Were both running wind Sprints I guess to make the question more
concrete is there which of these players that had a bad week?
Are you, are you most nervous about relative to the price?
You pay? And the two players will be most
nervous about if I had drafted own would be Allen Robinson and
by fire and it was just so many it looks like just really
struggled to get open and And he wasn't getting targeted.
So that would very much concerned me especially because
it comes on the tail of a just a ridiculously Bad season last
year. And so I think that's kind of,
like compound of evidence that, hey, this, this this guy may
have, he may have fallen off the cliff, unfortunately.
And yeah, the other thing, the, I guess the other thing that I
guess, Is a little bit worrying for CD-ROM is that even though
he was getting the targets and, and receiving efficiency can be,
it can be so volatile. But it didn't, it didn't look
good about how not open. He was that the drops.
Like there was plays where he he tried to beat someone on a slant
and he got the ball quick but the Mike was right there like
that it right down and I cost that's worrying.
Yeah, yeah. I'm totally with you there.
I was on this cake early in the season on TV, right?
You were the grandfather is overrated.
Take. Yeah, I was having some fun with
with the slander in the ship chasing Discord after the game.
Fancy Hunter Renfro again showed his true colors this week but
yeah, I don't know. I was on at all season, you
know, I was buying CD lamb last year when he was In the third
round. Then he doesn't have that great
a year and the markets like, you know what, he should be a late
first. Early second round pick now,
even when people are making the argument, that there's, there's
no target competition. But last year, even when Michael
Gallup was injured, they had the corpse of Amari Cooper who
apparently wasn't worth more than a fifth round pick and, you
know, a bunch of other, you know, Noah Brown Cedric Wilson
running routes in that situation.
Even when Gallop was out CD, couldn't get it done.
And I think there were games Network, Miss time.
So anyways done with my CD lamb ran, but I think that price was
was clearly bad. I think its role is still going
to be good enough that like you're going to be starting him.
He's going to have his weeks. You're not dropping them.
Yeah, when you picked him over, you know, guys who are proven,
they're good at football, Deebo, Samuel, AJ Brown, T, Higgins,
even, you know, Michael Pittman to be honest, flash a little bit
more. Yeah, you're going to do before
we move on and one thing that I do want to point out so we've
got this kind of section in the In the chart upper right?
We've got Justin Jefferson, got AJ Brown, got Cooper called
Ponte and then we have almond Ross and brown, okay?
If you took away the names from it like oh yeah that guy must be
a stud and and one of the I guess concerns for him was.
Oh hey they've got bringing all these guys back from injury.
They're bringing these guys in free agency.
They drafted this guy at. How is he going to repeat with
a? I'll just extra Target.
Mission, and it's like, he's I don't know if he's as high, but
that's some great like, Target and learning ability there.
And, and there's another player where the market has reacted.
So, his ATP on Underdog is now 40 and but it's you've got,
you've basically got an emerging second-year player who crushed
it at the end of the at the end of last year and he crushed it
into in terms, Of the underlying metrics crushed it in the first
game. Yeah, I do.
I do think that's really interesting.
Yeah, I would be buying him at 40 still.
I mean I use one of my highest own players.
This offseason like the argument that the target competition
argument last year. I mean, when a guy's earning 30
percent targets here with week over week, I don't care who's
competing for targets with you're good at football.
If you can do that and I agree. Like it's it's he's up there
with the Stud first round wide receivers in this chart and I
think, you know, at a fourth round price, they're still
certainly upside baked in. Yeah, I think it starts super
interesting. I'm quickly going to hit on
just, this will lift the list off some names for the audio
listeners of guys that had stronger roles and expected, and
who you should feel pretty solid about at Cost.
I think Robbie Anderson Zeta-Jones, Brandin Cooks,
talkin people's Jones, DJ charcoal, all kind of, well,
there's a range of atp's for those Guys, but mostly later on
pics, that had quite solid rolls week one, and at their cost, at
least before the season, I think you should be feeling pretty
good about those pics, but yeah, let's move on to sort of the 75
to 90% routes run guys. So there's still some some stars
in here but guys, who for whatever reason are running a
little bit less routes on on their team trick.
Oh there's some interesting names here, you know.
Curtis Samuel, Juju, drink London.
Any of sort of the, over performers, or strong performer,
skier that you're particularly excited about after week one.
So, I've got some notes and but I know you have a strong Curtis
Samuel take. So I want to hear ya.
The Curtis Daniel takes a while before I go all out.
On this take. Let me do you have his Underdog
ATP right now? Because I don't want.
Am I easy going in the third round but it's going up.
Pick 135. Okay.
I can still be excited about that.
My my credits and you'll pick, it's pretty simple.
Look like he he flashed and insane role week one.
He had 11 targets at four carries.
Clearly out targeted John Dodson.
Clearly I targeted Cherry McLaren on unless snaps than
both of those players and luck. It was the Jags defense like You
know, it could be by the end of the season.
We could be looking back on this, like, you know, Sammy
Watkins, weak, ones, and past year.
But Curtis, Samuel has showed, he's a good NFL player in years
past, maybe not an All-Star, but to immediately come out of that
gate with that big of a role with a little bit of an
interesting sort of rushing Devo.
Samuel asked floor along with that, I think my take is that
people hate courtesy. I know, because he's burned them
and passed years. He's got a long injury history.
They see him as injury-prone. They're not gonna just Fast
enough on on his week, one roll and at an ATP of 135.
I mean, like he just needs like two more of those games to pay
off that price and I think he's a talented guy.
I'm a Christian. I'm a Believer in the talent and
I think the role was there, so I'm buying as long as people are
still hesitant. Yeah, I think that makes sense,
for sure. Yeah, makes sense, for sure.
And and I guess my, the first thing my biggest reaction,
Shannon when I saw this was and how good Jarvis on our signature
Brisson, jury at how good Tyree kill.
I was almost about to throw a bone to wear a Gretsch there but
not today. Sorry kill like he put up some
Elite receiving numbers and on Sunday like he had a close to 40
percent Target share over. And I think was 110 our yards
and this is a game where the Dolphins were actually leading
for quite a bit of it. And and so I wrote an article
are lie in the offseason of hey tired, I sorry, Tyreke, he
propped up, Alex Smith, Alex Smith had a lead numbers when he
was trying to try to kill and some of the concerns with the
dolphins was that they were going, they were going to be
this kind of rush to win team. The Acquisitions that they made
didn't really look like that eater so they got it, they got
Tyree kill. Chase Edmunds, was the running
back that they paid and and so I think that if you have been
drafting toad kill super encouraging, he still going at
the to treat turn and, and obviously you got some monsters
or who we're going there in AJ Brown, and and I guess T Higgins
didn't show up last. Tweak, but some monsters to
contend with, but I do think that's very, very strong.
And I think really encouraging. Yeah, and I totally agree with
that. I was the Dolphins, Patriots
game. I'm a Patriots fan.
So, I watched that game. And man, he was wide open on
every single play. And, you know, it wasn't those
debt, long plays down the field that you saw with Patrick
Mahomes. It was a lot more of sort of
quick Slants out routes, sort of 5 to 10.
You know how to hold your hand are yards.
Oh yeah, yeah, I was inspiring as it but yeah, they're yards.
Yeah, I wasn't trying to spend that as a negative.
I was just saying no no no yeah I totally agree but he was he
was wide open on every every single play.
It was so easy for them to get the ball to Terry kill in this
game and I think with Jaylin waddle entire kill on the field.
The same time a defense can't just put all their attention to
Tyreke. You saw in the game where Jalen
waddle took one to the house, when the tension sort of off.
And a little bit. So I think Tyra I wasn't buying
Tyreke much to be honest. That has laid second round
price. I wish I was a little bit more,
you know, mixing him in there instead of some other guys
because I think he's going to have a huge year with this with
this usage cool. Another guy II, I got a I got a
mention Julio here. I was drafting went on this off
season especially before he signed I think he looked hurt,
you know he wasn't practicing eat Earth today.
He wasn't, I saw you as a fraction today.
If you look at the bus practice report today they literally had
zero wide receivers practicing. I'm guessing it's, you know,
Scotty Miller and Richard Perryman and into our receiver
sets this week, but assuming assuming it's just a veteran
rest day for Julio, right? He's ATP is 99 right now.
I think that is still insanely low and maybe maybe I'm still
chasing the ghost of the Julio, but give me, Tom Brady's number
to wide receiver, at least for the time being.
I think, I think God would mrs. Some time with this hamstring
injury, give me Tom Brady's, number two, wide, receiver pass,
happy offense, who they were clearly scheming.
Looks for in this game, they gave him two carries, kind of
weird uses for Julio, but they did give him two carriers.
There were looking to get him, the ball early and often and
narrowly, missed him on a few deep throws up.
Really would have boosted his overall stat line.
You know, it's usage here, doesn't pop out.
As amazing. But I think it was quite a
strong sign and week 14 Julio to be this involved and I'm still
buying it. 99 curious what you think?
I feel we may be disagree here and he'll and just like I guess
a quick plug for what I've been doing at Rotorua.
So I've been writing about the daily sites, Underdog and Giglio
Jones in in six in and drafts where there's 36 players, only
36 players been drafted his Is ATP is 35.4, so very rarely
getting drafted and and it's taken about ways to bet on Julia
Jones that could pay off massively if he's getting these
deep targets and you just need you just need a couple of them
to hit. They're looking to for ways to
get him involved and like I say, he's rarely being drafted.
I think that's like a strong. Hey, this is how you get paid in
fantasy football, kind of that. Yeah, that's smart.
I think yeah. I think that's a great strategy
in general and that type of game where you should be going way
out of the box. Those are weekly contest, am I
right? Yeah.
It's like it's like DFS and but
if you do a draft instead of era and that salary game and am
Yeah, it's just I think it's fun in that.
You get if you've been drafting on summer, you've developed
drafting skills and so you get the push them in your favor and
just kind of like lineup. Building lucky you get to build
like a guess and a uniqueness Edge just by being a skilled
rafter. Got it, that totally makes
sense. Yeah, I know, I am looking to go
for problem at last two picks in that form.
I'm looking to take guys that are not being drafted because 36
Flyers. There's there's plenty of guys
and sort of, you know, the 80 to 120 range in your typical ATP
that can pop off for big week. So I'm going out of the box
there, for sure. Yeah.
One last thing I want to point out here, Stefon Diggs, just ran
her out on 79% of Dropbox, drawbacks, I'm not overly
concerned about this, but I do want to see if this holds.
It's in the in the next few weeks, that's not something we
saw a lot in past years. I don't know if it's some minor
injury that we didn't know about whether they just kind of want
to arrest him or, you know, take him out off the field, you know,
in areas where they might be, you know, doing play action and
drawing up, run looks there, but I just wanted to note that.
But anyways, let's, let's move on to the Next slide here and
just quickly and then we go through this quickly.
Trick out, Hugh is one guy in the rotational wide receiver
range. You know, guys that are running
35 to 75 percent of routes that you think is exciting.
And could could our Orna earn a bigger role down the stretch.
And so I thought you were going to give me your call Phillip
steak, but And so we touched on earlier, at runtime to he'll
playing well and trail on Burks getting just huge Target.
Share our story targets per right run and flashing pretty
good at ability with it and it is super exciting.
And because one of the one of the concerns about Burke's was
that he's barely going to see the field at week one, he's
going to be in the doghouse. And I guess obviously he was
more rotational but he played so well that it's a big question of
account. How long before they just have
to make them a full-time player and he was so good in college
and so exciting. Obviously he went in the first
round and so I don't think this is like a hidden take.
It's not like I'm the only person with this opinion.
Yeah. But at an ATP of 100, I think
that's a big on the reaction to the market.
I'm just how good he played unlocked.
Yeah, I'm with you there, just give more context.
So this is showing all players with 35 to 75 percent of
restaurant. Obviously, that's a huge range.
There's a big difference between 35% 75% for these.
Two guys Brooks ran around on 37% of drawbacks and Phillips
rendered out on 60% of drawback. So they'll dip here in the same
chart Phillips. I will point out was clearly
ahead of Burke's now. Do I think you should be valued
out of Burke's? Definitely not.
But do I think Phillips is a value, a 280 p on Underdog right
now. I certainly do like this is if
you have all the wide receivers on one chart, Kyle Phillips
actually had the highest waited targets per round.
Run, not just amongst these rotational wide receivers.
But any wide receiver in the league in week one.
And I know some not a, you know, Dynasty scouting expert.
I do know some guys like JJ Zachary's in some of the Roto.
Underworld guys were hi. I'm Kyle Phillips.
Production in college. So I know is a fifth-round pick.
I don't want to get too excited, but I think if you, you know,
put a more exciting name there. Instead of Kyle Phillips, which
is probably one of the most variety and he's a bunny balls,
right? Yeah, giant impact.
Yeah. And I'm not going to say is
defect that loud. But yeah, but yeah, too many
people 200. I mean, that's a joke, he's
pushing Nick, if Brooks gets a bigger role, Philip Oops, it's
not coming at the expense of Philips.
I don't think. I think they can both are in
bigger roles and get these guys like Nick Westbrook Akeem.
A off the field. That's that's my take on the
Titans. I think I'm buying both of these
rookies like, pretty pretty heavily, but yeah.
Also like he played well, he had like 3.1 yards for everyone but
yeah, I am is his their yards went like bad.
So I tossed like that. The types of dirty disgusting
wide receivers. I've drafted in the 200 range,
you can do a whole lot worse. Oh yeah.
Yeah, I mean I have shares of like nikhil Harry in the how far
would you drop them up to? I would take him up to like 1150
ATP, you know, to be honest I got it, I got to get more
familiar of the, these Resurrection streets but I see
no reason to look, he's a wide receiver.
Prospect that summer. Excited by flashed a huge
Target, earning potential week one in a limited role.
I'm, you know, I'm, I'm definitely buying that guy.
You know, if you say that ATP of 200, I'd have 100% of coffee.
Laughs. I don't think he will.
It's a lot Frank of that, but I'm certainly excited.
Cool. So you're gonna eat any quick?
Maybe one or two quick hits here.
If you have any, otherwise let's move on to tight ends.
And I guess just it was nice to see Garrett, Wilson a show are
without a kind of 40% way to Target for our point for way to
Target paret, run and another rookie who who's going
discounted, who could very easily earn himself a full-time
role very quickly. Yeah, and yeah, what?
All one last note I have, I think that DeAndre Carter
joshjpalmer situation is interesting to monitor,
especially with Keenan Allen potentially out.
Out, I think the market heavily views Palmer as a favor favorite
to Carter there, but they didn't play that different of snaps in
week. One and Cowpens Carter was was
more effective. So, if the market is going
all-in on Palmer, say and like that Thursday night, Showdown
slate, I'm pretty interested in, Carter will sort of see how the
ownership looks there, but let's let's finish off wide receivers
and move on two tight ends for the last segment.
This Year for those watching is a little bit simpler.
We're just, we really want to know for tight ends look.
Are they on the field? And when they're on the field,
are they running past routes, or are they pass blocking?
So, that's what this chart shows, and it's ordered from
tight ends with the highest payout past Route percentage,
which is Mark Andrews that around 90% down, and going down
from there. So, this this chart shows guys,
with at least 60, Percent of routes run ranges from guys like
Mark Andrews and Dallas Goddard. And Kyle pits two guys like Joe,
Everett David and joke. You rest in peace & colca met.
I'm just just if I can add as well.
The reason that we're looking at it like this to.
Yep. It's that tight end is so much
about scheme. Like it's like you said those
the offense actually use their tight end in the passing game.
So I like you said, are you running a route already pass
blocking and then due time. Do these tight ends and targets
and sorry, what you've got in the bottom.
Yep, yeah, exactly. So, we got the way to Target
throughout run. Again the bottom.
So again, I wouldn't look too much into that it for a one-week
sample. Obviously, that's an important
stat over the course of the year.
I think there's some signal there in one week, but I would
honestly, like be more interested in the past
represented. Obviously, you want to see the
combination of both, right? But yet, right?
Feels like you said, we steep a fire Moon.
His number retired and Travis Kelce but that doesn't grow.
We changed that at for our moon is a better player done at
Travis Kelce but it does mean we're very encouraged by prep
for our moon. Yeah.
Agreed. So yeah I'll give a couple quick
takeaways here, Draco and then I'll kick it to you.
I think takeaway number one for me is I think some people are
panicking panicking a little bit on Andrews.
I don't know if the market is reacting, that way or to saw
that in Twitter, but I am not worried at all.
He's still got a massive, massive role, the biggest of any
tight end in the league right now.
I think that's going to continue.
There's no sort of Isaiah likely Factor here.
That's impacting. Mark Andrews.
I am Yang him. If his price Falls couple other
quick hits, I think jajuan Johnson and Tyler Conklin.
Being on this chart is quite interesting.
I think The taysom hill tight end role is maybe a little
exaggerated he is more of a gimmick roll jajuan Johnson
looks like he has a legit role in this offense so for tide and
premium I'm interested in some low bids for him.
Tyler Coughlin likewise he's probably more likely to get have
been drafted but those are a couple guys that I want to point
out for for waiver purposes. Although I guess the shows
coming out of the most waivers of chlorine so maybe not the
most relevant blood for DF DF S. I think it you know Pont jajuan
Johnson. Like maybe, maybe people are on
that, but I think that's interesting metric.
Oh, I'll kick it to you for free or thoughts here.
And so, I have seen some concern on a cup.
It's that he, he's past blocking a lot, so it obviously is not
great. We talked we talked about he
would be a lot closer to 100% of them.
Pass route guy. Hmm.
And just for the audio listeners, he's it about like
high 70s. Pastor.
They just wanted to write I like close to 80 and but close to 80
is still quite good for for tight and nice to see that he
got heavily targeted and we're done with fantasy football.
You obviously you can't lose sight of the talent like this is
one of the most talented players in the NFL and I'm still very
interested in carpets and we That was the were some people
drafted me in the first round in the main events and that
obviously doesn't look great anymore.
But if you can get this guy in the third round or tutor for
three or four turn, that's like a super strong pick.
I'm not. I'm still like a strong believer
in pits and what else next to him?
And there was obviously a lot of noise about the snaprite for
out. Berto.
But seeing him up there close to the 80 percent at snap route
that's not right with a solid 27% or and way to Target for a
run. Oh yeah, I love but I think
that's still still very interesting and really
interesting to see TJ Hawkinson and really hot.
He I think he's just below 80 as well pretty high.
Yeah, he had a 41% and way to Target for at run and at cost.
So let me see where he coughs of pick.
And like before ninety three point six that's super
interesting. Yep, yep, I think that is at is
deflated cost. I'm totally okay with you.
How can some there? Yeah, final notes may be here.
Tyler higbee. Also an amazing for sort of like
the middle round tight ends. Tyler higbee had an amazing
role, Cameron breit. Also his role is stronger than
expected. There was not much, Kyle,
Rudolph stuff going on. He was close to 80% routes
around, so maybe if you buy into the the wide receiver core being
banged up there, you You can can profit a bit with Cameron braid,
but you had Raquel. Let's, let's wrap to wrap this
up. Probably the least sexy chart.
We have here. This is the Titans Titans.
Yeah. If you have any backup type, if
you wanted a podcast for backup tight end, takes you have come
to the right place. There's some names on here.
Frankly, I could not tell you what team, they're on Draco.
Parker has see any idea that's giving the quick.
Where's he staying at Johnny Smith?
41% waited tiger / outrun, and looks like he was on here on a
route on that unless and 60% of the, the Pass rates and our
deposit temps and you see, as such as high Target rate, you
see, at Hunter Henry, he had a super high and pass rate but a
really low Target rate and that's something that's really
interesting. Arresting and like can he flip
him by the end of the year? I think that's a really
interesting. Yeah, I'm going to look at that.
Yep, I agree with that one, two other quick hitters.
Maybe I think the Robert Tanya n'stuff is interesting.
He did not have a high pass route but he did get targets
when he was on the field. I think the probably bring him
along. Slowly post ACL tear and with
that wide open wide receiver room.
I'm interested in tan Ian in deeper formats.
Yeah. That's about all the the gross
tight end takes. I can do anything, anything
else, your trick or otherwise we'll we'll wrap this up and no
I think I think we ought to close it there.
Yeah. Once you're talking about Robert
Tanya and that's on the show. But yeah, anyways, yeah, thanks
a lot for joining us guys. We will be iterating on this as
the season goes along. And figure out sort of what
works best for us. What works best for you.
Also expect some of the charts to change slightly, but this is
the general idea will go through each position and highlight the
key stats and hopefully give you guys actionable, takeaways for
best ball for DFS, for waivers. We're out here to help you
better on all parts of your fantasy games.
So yeah, trick out, maybe tell the people where they can find
your work before we Shut things down and yeah and hit a photo of
is. And if you're watching at stop
chasing you you're probably familiar and had a lot of people
come up to me in Vegas as say they enjoy it.
My, my work, which is really encouraging and but tanks it.
If you've made it, this far. Thanks for listening through a
Rebecca, flight Antics. Yeah, thank you.
All right, I'll see you next week.