1 00:00:16,810 --> 00:00:20,370 The bombing stopped less than two hours before Trump's 2 00:00:20,370 --> 00:00:23,490 deadline expired. Pakistan brokered A2 week 3 00:00:23,490 --> 00:00:26,250 ceasefire between the United States and Iran. 4 00:00:26,610 --> 00:00:28,490 The Strait of Hormuz will reopen. 5 00:00:28,970 --> 00:00:30,850 The power plants were not struck. 6 00:00:31,370 --> 00:00:35,490 Negotiations are set for Islamabad on Friday, and the 40 7 00:00:35,490 --> 00:00:39,120 day war that reshaped the Middle East, shook the global economy 8 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:42,000 and killed thousands of people is, for now, on pause. 9 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:47,840 It is Wednesday, April 8th, 2026, day 40 of Operation Epic 10 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:50,360 Fury. This is the morning after. 11 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:55,960 The guns are largely quiet, the markets are surging, Iranians 12 00:00:55,960 --> 00:01:00,040 took to the streets of Tehran in celebration, and the world is 13 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:03,400 trying to understand what just happened, what it means and 14 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:07,440 whether it holds. This is episode 40 of Epic Fury, 15 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:11,800 the US Iran War podcast. Follow on Spotify and Apple 16 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:14,600 Podcast To stay with this story as it develops. 17 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:17,760 Let's get into it. Start with the sequence of 18 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:19,640 events that produced the ceasefire. 19 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:22,880 Because the final hours of Tuesday were as dramatic as 20 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:24,800 anything. This conflict is produced 21 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:27,080 through the daylight hours of Tuesday. 22 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:30,440 The war appeared to be moving toward its most catastrophic 23 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:33,360 escalation yet. Trump posted on Truth Social 24 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:35,560 that morning. A whole civilization will die 25 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:37,840 tonight, never to be brought back again. 26 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:41,080 He warned of the complete demolition of Iranian power 27 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:44,520 plants and bridges. Hexif had said the day before. 28 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:47,600 Today will be the largest volume of strike since day one. 29 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:52,720 Tomorrow even more than today. Iranians formed human chains 30 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:56,200 around power plants. Iran's deputy minister of youth 31 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:59,280 in sports called the country's young people to shield the 32 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:00,880 infrastructure with their bodies. 33 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:03,920 The deadline, eight in the evening Eastern Time, was 34 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:06,720 approaching. The image that defined the final 35 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:10,360 hours before the ceasefire came from Iran's state news agency 36 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:12,920 Farce. It showed a human chain forming 37 00:02:12,920 --> 00:02:16,240 in front of the Kazron combined cycle power plant in southwest 38 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:19,240 Iran. Ordinary Iranians, arms linked, 39 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:22,240 standing between their bodies and the threat of American 40 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:24,760 bombs. Iran's deputy minister of Youth 41 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:27,600 and Sports had called on the country's young people to form a 42 00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:31,080 national campaign he described as Iranian youth's human chain 43 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:33,760 for a Bright tomorrow. The image of civilians 44 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:36,520 physically placing themselves in front of infrastructure that a 45 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:38,760 foreign government had threatened to destroy was 46 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:42,560 broadcast globally and became a defining visual of a conflict 47 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:44,600 whose defining question was always this. 48 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,880 What is a nation that cannot win militarily do to survive? 49 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:51,600 The answer on Tuesday afternoon was to stand in front of its 50 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:54,880 power plants and wait. Then Pakistan moved. 51 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:59,000 Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif posted on social media 52 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:02,920 publicly asking Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks and 53 00:03:02,920 --> 00:03:06,400 asking Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill gesture. 54 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:10,360 Behind the scenes, Pakistan's army chief Field Marshall SIM 55 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:13,680 Munir, the most important back channel actor of this entire 56 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:16,760 conflict, was in direct communication with Washington 57 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:21,080 and Tehran simultaneously. At 6:32 in the evening Eastern 58 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:24,880 Time, 90 minutes before the deadline, Trump posted on Truth 59 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:27,360 Social. He said he was acting based on 60 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:30,720 conversations with Sharif and Munir, who requested that he 61 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:33,920 hold off the destructive force being sent to Iran that night, 62 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:37,760 subject to Iran agreeing to the complete, immediate and safe 63 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:39,840 opening of the Strait of Hormuz, he wrote. 64 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:43,360 I agreed to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period 65 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:45,920 of two weeks. This will be a double sided 66 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,560 ceasefire. He added that the United States 67 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:52,040 had received a 10 point proposal from Iran and that he believed 68 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:54,560 it was a workable basis on which to negotiate. 69 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:57,480 He said almost all of the various points of past 70 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:00,480 contention have been agreed to between the United States and 71 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:03,040 Iran. He said it is an honor to have 72 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:05,560 this long term problem close to resolution. 73 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:10,000 Iran's Supreme National Security Council confirmed the ceasefire 74 00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:13,120 within hours. It's statement, however, did not 75 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:16,560 mirror Trump's framing. Where Trump declared near total 76 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:20,120 agreement, Iran's Security Council declared near total 77 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:24,000 victory, the statement read. We convey glad tidings to the 78 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:27,320 great nation of Iran that nearly all of the war's objectives have 79 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:30,800 been achieved and your valiant sons have driven the enemy into 80 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:33,560 a state of historic helplessness and enduring defeat. 81 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:37,360 It said Iran's hands remain upon the trigger and that should the 82 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:40,800 slightest error be committed by the enemy, it shall be met with 83 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:43,960 full force. And it emphasized this does not 84 00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:46,040 signify the termination of the war. 85 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:49,600 Trump responded to the Iranian victory statement by calling it 86 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:52,840 a fraud, attacking CNN for reporting on it, and claiming 87 00:04:52,840 --> 00:04:55,360 the statement came from a fake news site in Nigeria. 88 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,440 Multiple news organizations confirmed a statement came 89 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:01,400 directly from Iran's Supreme National Security Council, 90 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:05,040 obtained by CNN from Iranian officials, and reported across 91 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:08,320 multiple Iranian state media outlets simultaneously. 92 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:12,240 Iran's Foreign Minister Arachi thank Pakistan publicly for its 93 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:15,440 role in the negotiations and made clear that Iran's 10 point 94 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:19,360 framework, not America's 15 point framework, was the basis 95 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:21,080 on which the ceasefire had been reached. 96 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:24,720 The divergent goes further than competing press releases. 97 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:28,200 Iran's Supreme National Security Council statement said it would 98 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:31,000 enter negotiations in Islamabad beginning Friday. 99 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:34,280 While emphasizing the ceasefire does not signify the termination 100 00:05:34,280 --> 00:05:37,360 of the war, it listed the conditions Iran expects to be 101 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:40,640 addressed, including the withdrawal of US combat forces 102 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:43,480 from all bases in the region, a demand that would require 103 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:46,360 dismantling the network of military installations that has 104 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:49,000 defined American power projection in the Gulf since 105 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:51,960 1991. It included reparations. 106 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:55,600 It included Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz as a 107 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:59,160 permanent geopolitical outcome rather than a temporary wartime 108 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:01,600 disruption. None of those points have been 109 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:06,240 agreed to buy the United States, and yet Iran is publicly framing 110 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:08,880 them as the agreed basis for what comes next. 111 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:12,160 This divergent is not a miscommunication. 112 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:15,360 It is a strategic choice by both sides. 113 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:18,960 Trump needs the ceasefire to be a victory domestically, 114 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:22,280 politically, and as a capstone to 40 days of military 115 00:06:22,280 --> 00:06:25,120 operations that cost the American taxpayer 10s of 116 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:28,120 billions of dollars. Iran needs the ceasefire to be a 117 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:31,880 victory to justify to its population 40 days of bombing, 118 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:35,920 more than 1900 dead, and an economy that its own president 119 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:37,920 privately warned was weeks from collapse. 120 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:41,240 Both sides need the same ceasefire to mean something 121 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:43,560 different. That is the paradox that 122 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:46,400 Islamabad on Friday must somehow navigate. 123 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,520 The two sides are telling different stories about what 124 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:52,640 just happened. Trump is framing the ceasefire 125 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:56,400 as AUS military victory that forced Iran to capitulate and 126 00:06:56,400 --> 00:07:00,400 reopen Hormis, White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt said 127 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:03,640 The truth is that President Trump and our powerful military 128 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:07,040 got Iran to agree to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and 129 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:10,680 negotiations will continue. She called it a victory for the 130 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:14,200 United States. Iran is framing it as an Iranian 131 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:17,360 diplomatic victory in which the United States accepted the 132 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:20,640 general framework of its 10 point proposal as a basis for 133 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:23,480 negotiations. Both framings cannot be 134 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:27,400 simultaneously true, but both are politically necessary for 135 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:30,400 each side's domestic audience, and that gap between the two 136 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:32,520 narratives is the single greatest threat to the 137 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:35,320 ceasefire's durability in the coming 14 days. 138 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:39,520 When Iranian officials arrive in Islamabad on Friday and American 139 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,880 officials arrive in Islamabad on Friday, they will be sitting 140 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:45,520 across the table from each other, having told their own 141 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:48,720 populations fundamentally incompatible stories about what 142 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:52,080 the past 40 days achieved. Bridging that gap requires 143 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:55,320 political will and face saving language that neither side has 144 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:59,160 yet demonstrated it can provide. Iran's Foreign Minister Arachi 145 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:01,800 confirmed that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz 146 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:04,520 will be possible via coordination with Iran's armed 147 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:07,080 forces and with due consideration of technical 148 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:09,880 limitations. That phrase technical 149 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,400 limitations is doing significant work. 150 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:16,920 Before the war, more than 100 ships a day transited the Strait 151 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:20,200 under a decades old traffic separation system with no 152 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:22,120 publicly acknowledged limitations. 153 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:25,320 The reference to technical limitations is Iran reserving 154 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:28,160 the right to manage the reopening on its own terms and 155 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:30,600 timeline. Reports from Iran's semi 156 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:34,600 official TIS Name news agency indicate that Iran and Oman plan 157 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,760 to charge transit fees during the ceasefire window funds 158 00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:40,760 earmarked for reconstruction, with fees reportedly as high as 159 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:44,480 $2,000,000 per vessel. Markets did not wait for those 160 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:47,040 details. The international oil price 161 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:51,000 benchmark fell 13% on Tuesday night, the largest single day 162 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:55,360 oil price drop in years. S&P 500 futures indicated the 163 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:58,920 stock index could open up more than 2% on Wednesday morning. 164 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:03,040 The economic relief that 40 days of this war had denied the 165 00:09:03,040 --> 00:09:05,760 global economy arrived in a single evening. 166 00:09:06,280 --> 00:09:09,600 But Eurasia Group had warned that even a swift ceasefire 167 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:12,720 would not immediately reverse the energy supply damage this 168 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:15,360 war has cost. It would take several months to 169 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:18,400 repair oil refineries and other energy infrastructure in the 170 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:21,240 Persian Gulf, and shipping companies would need at least 171 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:23,520 two months to resume normal operations. 172 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:27,440 The 13% oil price drop reflects the markets relief at the 173 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:30,360 ceasefire announcement. It is not yet reflect a full 174 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:33,760 resumption of Hormuz traffic because that traffic has not yet 175 00:09:33,760 --> 00:09:37,240 resumed. Before the war, over 100 ships 176 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:40,200 transited the straight daily. In the weeks before the 177 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:43,880 ceasefire, maritime tracking data showed only about 5% of 178 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,480 that pre war volume still getting through, with ships 179 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:49,240 paying fees as high as $2,000,000 per vessel and 180 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:51,160 insurance premiums at six year highs. 181 00:09:51,560 --> 00:09:54,840 Restoring anything close to pre war traffic levels will require 182 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:57,880 Iran to formally lift its blockade, shipping companies to 183 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:01,600 resume bookings, insurers to lower premiums and tanker 184 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:03,760 operators to trust that the ceasefire holds. 185 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:07,840 Each of those steps takes time. Whether that relief is sustained 186 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:11,720 depends entirely on whether the Strait reopens fully, quickly, 187 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,440 and durably. The Islamabad talks are 188 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:16,800 scheduled for Friday, April 10th. 189 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:20,480 Pakistan Prime Minister Sharif has invited delegations from 190 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:23,800 both the United States and Iran to negotiate toward a conclusive 191 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:25,680 agreement to settle all disputes. 192 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:29,000 Pakistan was the most effective intermediary throughout this 193 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:31,160 conflict. The country that shares a long 194 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:34,480 border and cultural and religious ties with Iran, hosts 195 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:37,720 the largest Shia Muslim population outside Iran, does 196 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:41,040 not host U.S. military bases, and has not been targeted by 197 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:44,280 Iranian missiles. Pakistan has also reemerged as 198 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:47,560 an important US partner during Trump's second term, partly 199 00:10:47,560 --> 00:10:50,240 because of the enormous trove of rare earths and critical 200 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:53,760 minerals it is believed to hold, a convergence of interest that 201 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:57,520 gave Islamabad unusual leverage with Washington at precisely the 202 00:10:57,520 --> 00:10:59,960 moment when that leverage was needed to stop a war. 203 00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:03,680 Sharif's public intervention on Tuesday was the visible tip of 204 00:11:03,680 --> 00:11:06,480 weeks of back channel work by Munir that created the 205 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:09,200 conditions under which Trump could announce A ceasefire and 206 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:11,880 frame it as a win. Its emergence as the venue for 207 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:16,040 the first direct US Iran talks of this entire conflict is not 208 00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:18,720 accidental. It is the culmination of that 209 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:22,080 work and of the remarkable judgement of two Pakistani 210 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:24,520 leaders who chose the right moment to step in. 211 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:27,880 The 10 point Iranian proposal that Trump called a workable 212 00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:31,560 basis contains terms the United States has not agreed to and 213 00:11:31,560 --> 00:11:34,160 almost certainly cannot accept in their current form. 214 00:11:34,560 --> 00:11:37,560 The gap between Iran treating its 10 points as the agreed 215 00:11:37,560 --> 00:11:40,440 foundation for peace and the United States treating those 216 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:43,720 same points is merely a starting position is the negotiating 217 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:45,960 chasm. That Islamabad on Friday must 218 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:49,080 begin to bridge. That chasm is not narrow. 219 00:11:49,560 --> 00:11:52,640 Israel presents the most immediate complication. 220 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:56,560 Netanyahu's office confirmed Israel supports the two week 221 00:11:56,560 --> 00:12:00,320 ceasefire in relation to Iran, but stated explicitly that it 222 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:02,840 does not include Lebanon, Pakistan. 223 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:05,240 Sharif had announced the ceasefire as applying 224 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:08,280 everywhere, including Lebanon, effective immediately. 225 00:12:08,680 --> 00:12:11,640 Those two statements are directly contradictory. 226 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:15,320 Hezbollah said it had halted attacks on Israel and on Israeli 227 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:18,560 soldiers in Lebanon. A significant statement since 228 00:12:18,560 --> 00:12:21,640 Hezbollah's own decision to stand down is not automatic or 229 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:25,200 guaranteed simply because Iran's Supreme National Security 230 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:27,960 Council issued A ceasefire confirmation in Tehran. 231 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:31,800 Hezbollah operates with strategic autonomy even within 232 00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:35,560 the broader Iranian axis. If Israel continues striking 233 00:12:35,560 --> 00:12:39,320 Hezbollah in Lebanon during the ceasefire window, Iran will face 234 00:12:39,320 --> 00:12:42,040 domestic pressure to characterize that as a violation 235 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:44,160 of the terms under which it agreed to the pause. 236 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,960 The Lebanon ambiguity is not a footnote to the ceasefire. 237 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:51,240 It is potentially its most immediate fault line. 238 00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:55,120 Missile alerts sounded in Israel and the UAE in the early hours 239 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:58,160 of Wednesday morning even after the ceasefire was announced, 240 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,520 suggesting either residual attacks already in flight or 241 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:04,320 that elements of the proxy network had not yet acted on the 242 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:07,520 ceasefire instruction. The IRGC throughout this 243 00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:10,520 conflict operated with considerable autonomy from 244 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:12,840 Iran's civilian and political structures. 245 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:17,560 Whether every IRGC commander in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Gaza 246 00:13:17,560 --> 00:13:21,040 simultaneously received and accepted the ceasefire order is 247 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:23,240 a question that Wednesday morning is not yet fully 248 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:25,640 answered. Israel's skepticism about the 249 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:29,760 ceasefire's durability is a matter of record. 1 senior 250 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:33,400 Israeli source told CNN that Israeli officials were skeptical 251 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:36,360 and believe the apparent breakthrough could unravel and 252 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:39,320 leave deferred or escalation if Iran does not quickly open the 253 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:41,640 Strait. Senator Lindsey Graham said he 254 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:45,080 is extremely cautious about what is fact or fiction in the 255 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:48,440 current state of the ceasefire. He called for a congressional 256 00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:51,600 review process similar to the one connected to the Obama era 257 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:55,320 Iran nuclear deal, an agreement that Trump himself withdrew from 258 00:13:55,320 --> 00:13:58,360 in 2018. That comparison is not a 259 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:01,320 reassuring analogy for a ceasefire's longevity. 260 00:14:01,680 --> 00:14:05,120 An American journalist, Shelley Kittleson, who had been abducted 261 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:08,720 by an Iranian backed militia in Baghdad a week earlier, was 262 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:11,840 released on Tuesday. Her release came alongside the 263 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:14,280 ceasefire announcement. Whether as part of the 264 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:17,480 diplomatic package or as a separate gesture of good faith 265 00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:20,600 is not confirmed. Is 1 further human dimension of 266 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:23,640 a conflict whose humanitarian toll has been vast. 267 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:27,280 The international reaction to the ceasefire was swift and 268 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:29,000 largely welcoming, though hedged. 269 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:32,920 German Chancellor Friedrich Merz hailed the ceasefire and thanked 270 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:36,640 Pakistan for its mediating role. Ukraine's foreign minister 271 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:39,720 called for similar American decisiveness in addressing 272 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:42,360 Russia's war. New Zealand's foreign minister 273 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:45,360 welcomed the truce but said much more needed to be done. 274 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:48,600 Iraq's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stressed the need for 275 00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:50,320 full commitment from both parties. 276 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:53,680 The world's governments reacted to the ceasefire announcement 277 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:56,600 the way governments react to fragile things with relief 278 00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:59,120 qualified by awareness that it could still break. 279 00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:01,840 What is unambiguously true is this. 280 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:05,440 The Strait of Hormuz will reopen at least partially, for the 281 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:10,520 first time since February 28th. Oil fell 13% in a single 282 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:14,840 evening. 2 delegations, American and Iranian, will sit in the 283 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:18,160 same room in Islamabad on Friday for the first time in this 284 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:20,840 conflict. The 40 day air campaign struck 285 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:25,920 more than 7800 Iranian targets, conducted more than 8000 combat 286 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:29,800 flights, and damaged or destroyed more than 120 Iranian 287 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:33,360 ships. the United States and Israel achieved every stated 288 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:35,840 military objective within the first two weeks. 289 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:39,720 Iran's air defenses were largely dismantled, its nuclear sites 290 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:42,960 were repeatedly struck, its naval capacity was destroyed, 291 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:45,360 its senior military leadership was killed. 292 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:49,560 And yet Iran is still standing, still claiming victory and still 293 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:52,240 demanding conditions that no American administration could 294 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:55,040 accept. The 40 days did not resolve the 295 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:58,080 underlying conflict. They created the conditions 296 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:00,040 under which both sides could pause it. 297 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:03,440 But a two week ceasefire is not a peace deal. 298 00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:07,440 It is a pause. The war killed more than 1900 299 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:12,120 Iranians, more than 1500 Lebanese, 13 Americans and 300 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:14,440 produced casualties across nine countries. 301 00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:18,400 More than 80,000 civilian units were damaged across Iran. 302 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:23,520 Hospitals were struck, schools were struck, A synagogue was 303 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:26,200 destroyed. The Strait of Hormuz was closed 304 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:29,880 for 40 days, the longest closure of that waterway in its modern 305 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:33,480 history, producing an energy supply shock the IEA described 306 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:36,240 as the largest since the 1970s oil crisis. 307 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:39,760 By mid March, the cost of the US military alone had been 308 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:43,880 estimated at $18 billion. The cost to Arab countries 309 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:48,600 exceeded $120 billion by the 40th day. 310 00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:51,760 This had become one of the most economically destructive 311 00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:55,640 conflicts of the 21st century. The underlying disputes that 312 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:59,360 produced it Iran's nuclear program, its missile arsenal, 313 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:02,640 its proxy network, the US military presence in the Gulf 314 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:06,200 have not been resolved, and Iran's Supreme National Security 315 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:09,480 Council has been explicit. Our hands remain upon the 316 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:12,040 trigger. The most significant unanswered 317 00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:15,400 question of the ceasefire is the same question that is defined as 318 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:19,560 conflict from its opening hour. Who in Iran has the authority to 319 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:23,280 make and keep a deal? The IRGC barred the civilian 320 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:25,760 government from negotiations throughout this war. 321 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:29,040 The ceasefire statement was confirmed by Supreme Leader 322 00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:32,720 Mojtaba Khamenei himself, only weeks in power following his 323 00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:36,280 father's assassination. The Islamabad talks will reveal 324 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:39,360 whether Iran's negotiating position is being driven by the 325 00:17:39,360 --> 00:17:43,680 civilian foreign ministry, the IRGC, strategic calculus or 326 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:46,200 Khamenei himself. That answer will determine 327 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:50,000 whether Islamabad produces a durable framework or collapses 328 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:53,720 into the same cycle of ultimatum and extension that defined the 329 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,400 past three weeks. For the United States, the 330 00:17:56,400 --> 00:18:00,120 United Kingdom and Australia, the ceasefire is an enormous and 331 00:18:00,120 --> 00:18:03,680 immediate relief. Oil fell 13%. 332 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:07,680 Gas prices will begin falling as the straight reopens. 333 00:18:08,120 --> 00:18:11,520 Trump is framing this as a decisive military and diplomatic 334 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:14,160 victory. The rescue of the F15 E Colonel 335 00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:18,000 and now a ceasefire give him two consecutive major political wins 336 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:21,200 in three days. In Britain, the prospect of LNG 337 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:24,520 supply normalization will relieve household energy bills 338 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:26,520 that have been rising since late February. 339 00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:30,320 In Australia, petrol prices will begin to fall and the free 340 00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:33,440 public transport programs introduced by Victoria and 341 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:37,920 Tasmania to absorb the fuel cost shock may no longer be needed. 4 342 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:41,800 Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UA, Qatar and 343 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:44,120 Bahrain. The ceasefire brings immediate 344 00:18:44,120 --> 00:18:46,680 relief from the relentless missile and drone attacks that 345 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:49,080 have been degrading their infrastructure, closing their 346 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:52,000 causeways and forcing their populations to live under 347 00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:54,000 missile alert cycles for 40 days. 348 00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:57,560 For the world shipping industry, the ceasefire is the beginning 349 00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:00,240 of the process of reopening the world's most important 350 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,120 commercial waterway, though the process will take months to 351 00:19:03,120 --> 00:19:06,480 complete rather than days. This is where this story stands. 352 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,680 On the morning of Day 40. The bombs have paused. 353 00:19:10,120 --> 00:19:13,440 The Straight will reopen. The markets have surged. 354 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,720 Iranian celebrated in the streets of Tehran. 355 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:20,280 An American journalist tell by an Iranian backed militia in 356 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:22,240 Baghdad for a week has been released. 357 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:26,720 The Islamabad talks are three days away and the most important 358 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,920 two weeks in this conflict in which the war either transitions 359 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:32,880 toward a durable peace or resumes with the next round of 360 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,240 ultimatums and exchanges begin now. 361 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,840 The ceasefire is fragile, contested in its interpretation 362 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:42,520 by both sides, complicated by Israel's Lebanon carve out, 363 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:46,600 uncertain in its implementation and surrounded by forces on 364 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:49,280 multiple sides that have their own agendas in their own 365 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:52,840 triggers. But it is a ceasefire, and on 366 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:56,600 the 40th morning of this war, that is the most consequential 367 00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:59,400 fact in the world. If this podcast is helping you 368 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:02,760 make sense of what is happening, please take 30 seconds to leave 369 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:05,400 a review on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. 370 00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:08,760 It makes an enormous difference to how many people find the 371 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:11,760 show. This has been episode 40 of Epic 372 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:17,280 Fury, the US Iran war podcast. 40 days the ceasefire. 373 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:21,040 The Strait reopens Islamabad on Friday. 374 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,960 The war is paused. Whether that pause becomes peace 375 00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:27,440 is the question this podcast will keep following. 376 00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:29,760 We will be back very soon.