1 00:00:16,810 --> 00:00:20,250 The cease-fire is less than 24 hours old, and it is already 2 00:00:20,250 --> 00:00:22,890 fracturing. Israel launched its largest 3 00:00:22,890 --> 00:00:26,530 coordinated strike on Lebanon since this war began, killing at 4 00:00:26,530 --> 00:00:29,810 least 182 people and wounding hundreds more. 5 00:00:30,210 --> 00:00:33,890 Iran's IRGC responded by claiming it had halted oil 6 00:00:33,890 --> 00:00:36,130 tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. 7 00:00:36,530 --> 00:00:40,080 The White House denied the Strait was closed and JD Vance 8 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:43,240 called the ceasefire A fragile truce from Budapest, where he 9 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:46,000 was briefing allies before flying to Islamabad. 10 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:51,800 It is Wednesday, April 9th, 2026, day 41 of operation in 11 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:54,720 epic Fury. The ceasefire is in place. 12 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:57,560 The guns have largely paused over Iran. 13 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:01,440 All markets are recovering. Iranians who celebrated in the 14 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:05,120 streets of Tehran on Tuesday night woke on Wednesday to news 15 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:07,960 of Lebanon burning and the straight contested again. 16 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:11,760 The most important diplomatic process of this war is about to 17 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:14,800 begin in Pakistan. But every element of the 18 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:18,360 agreement is already being contested, reinterpreted or 19 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:20,280 challenged, depending on who you ask. 20 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:22,400 And the ceasefire is less than a day old. 21 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:27,760 This is episode 41 of Epic Fury, the US Iran War podcast. 22 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:31,800 Follow on Spotify and Apple Podcast to stay with this story 23 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:34,200 as it develops. Let's get into it. 24 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:37,200 Start with Lebanon. Because it is the fault line 25 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:40,080 that could collapse the ceasefire before Islamabad even 26 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:42,000 begins. And because what happened on 27 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:44,280 Wednesday morning was not a minor irritant or a 28 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:47,160 misunderstanding. It was the single most serious 29 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:50,880 test the ceasefire has faced, and it arrived within hours of 30 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:54,080 the agreement being signed. Israel launched what the IDF 31 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:57,200 described as its largest coordinated strike on Lebanon 32 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:00,720 since the war began overnight on Wednesday local time. 33 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:04,880 The Lebanese Health Ministry confirmed at least 182 killed 34 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,039 and hundreds wounded, adding to a Lebanon death toll that had 35 00:02:08,039 --> 00:02:12,040 already exceeded 1500 before the ceasefire was announced. 36 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:15,320 The IDF said it struck Hezbollah targets including 37 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:18,640 infrastructure, weapon storage and command facilities in 38 00:02:18,640 --> 00:02:20,880 southern Lebanon and the Beirut suburbs. 39 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:24,680 The strikes represent Israel exercising the freedom of action 40 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:28,440 it had explicitly reserved when Netanyahu said Lebanon was not 41 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:32,360 included in the ceasefire. Israel is not wrong, legally or 42 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:35,640 militarily, to argue that Hezbollah remains a threat and 43 00:02:35,640 --> 00:02:38,840 that the ceasefire with Iran does not obligate Israel to stop 44 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:42,160 defending itself in Lebanon. But the moral and strategic 45 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:44,640 weight of launching the conflicts deadliest Lebanon 46 00:02:44,640 --> 00:02:47,920 strikes in the immediate hours after a ceasefire announcement, 47 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:50,640 while the world's attention was focused on the relief in the 48 00:02:50,640 --> 00:02:53,320 diplomacy is a choice that will be scrutinized. 49 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:56,480 The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volcker Turk 50 00:02:56,720 --> 00:03:00,360 condemned the strikes, saying such carnage defies belief. 51 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:04,440 He said the scale the killing and destruction in Lebanon today 52 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:07,760 is nothing sure of horrific. He added that the strikes, 53 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:10,600 coming within hours of a ceasefire agreement with Iran, 54 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:14,120 place enormous pressure on a fragile peace which is so 55 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:19,320 desperately needed by civilians. Iran's IRGC responded swiftly. 56 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:22,240 It announced that oil tanker traffic through the Strait of 57 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:26,120 Hormuz had been stopped, citing the Israeli strikes on Lebanon 58 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:30,160 as a ceasefire violation. Iran's ambassador to Pakistan, 59 00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:34,040 Reza Miri Mogadam, said parts of Iran's proposal had been 60 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:37,120 violated before the Islamabad talks had even begun. 61 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:40,920 The speaker of Iran's parliament made a similar allegation. 62 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:45,080 The IRGC statement was a direct invocation of Iran's 10 point 63 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:48,280 proposal, which includes a necessity of ending the war 64 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:51,080 against all components of the resistance axis, meaning 65 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:53,360 Hezbollah. The White House immediately 66 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:56,320 pushed back. Press Secretary Caroline Levitt 67 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:59,440 said the reports of Iran closing the Strait were completely 68 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:01,480 unacceptable and call them false. 69 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:05,520 Defense Secretary Hegseth told a press briefing the Strait is 70 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:09,000 open, Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Kane said. 71 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:12,320 I believe so, based on the diplomatic negotiation. 72 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:15,880 Levitt added that Trump wants to straight open immediately 73 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:19,480 without limitation, including tolls, a direct rebuttal of 74 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:22,680 Iran's plan to charge transit fees during the ceasefire. 75 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:25,920 The problem is that both sides are correct about the factual 76 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:29,520 situation and both sides are wrong about the legal situation. 77 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:33,720 Israel did strike Lebanon. The UN confirmed it. 78 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:38,280 The death toll is real. Iran's 10 point proposal does 79 00:04:38,280 --> 00:04:42,280 include Lebanon, but the Trump administration explicitly told 80 00:04:42,280 --> 00:04:45,960 Israel before the ceasefire was announced that Lebanon was not 81 00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:48,760 included. Netanyahu's office confirmed 82 00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:52,040 that explicitly. Pakistan's Prime Minister Sharif 83 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:55,080 said Lebanon was included. He announced the ceasefire. 84 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:58,880 All four of those statements are simultaneously on the record. 85 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:02,840 The Lebanon question was not resolved before the ceasefire 86 00:05:02,840 --> 00:05:06,680 was announced. It was papered over senior U.S. 87 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:09,800 officials, speaking privately, acknowledged to multiple news 88 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:12,560 organizations that the Lebanon carve out was a deliberate 89 00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:15,680 ambiguity, a concession to Israel's insistence that it 90 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:19,240 retain freedom of action against Hezbollah dressed in language 91 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:22,040 that was vague enough for Pakistan to present to Iran as a 92 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:25,440 comprehensive ceasefire. That is the architecture of a 93 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:28,440 diplomatic fudge, not a diplomatic resolution. 94 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:32,160 Fudges of this kind can hold when the underlying parties have 95 00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:34,680 a shared interest in pretending they don't see the 96 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:37,640 contradiction. They collapse when one party 97 00:05:37,840 --> 00:05:41,880 like the IRGC decides to act on what was actually written rather 98 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:43,640 than what was diplomatically implied. 99 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:47,360 And on Day 41, the IRGC is acted. 100 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:51,000 And on Day 41, that paper has already torn. 101 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:54,560 VP Vance, speaking to reporters in Budapest on his way to 102 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:58,720 Islamabad, said if Iran wants to let this negotiation fall apart 103 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:01,280 in a conflict where they were getting hammered over Lebanon, 104 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:03,840 which has nothing to do with them, and which the United 105 00:06:03,840 --> 00:06:06,480 States never once said was part of the ceasefire, that is 106 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:10,040 ultimately their choice. He added that fundamentally, we 107 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:13,680 are in a good spot. They are reopening the straits, 108 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:18,080 we have a ceasefire, and frankly, if they break their end 109 00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:21,600 of the bargain, they're going to see some serious consequences. 110 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:25,720 That framing that Lebanon has nothing to do with Iran is not a 111 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:29,120 position that any Iranian government of any political 112 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:34,480 stripe could accept publicly. Iran created Hezbollah in 1982. 113 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:38,600 It has funded, armed, trained and directed Hezbollah for four 114 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:41,280 decades. It has described Hezbollah as 115 00:06:41,280 --> 00:06:44,720 part of the axis of resistance that constitutes Iran's primary 116 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:46,720 strategic deterrent against Israel. 117 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:50,640 Telling Tehran that Hezbollah's fate has nothing to do with Iran 118 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:54,480 is not a negotiating position. It is a declaration of the gap 119 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:57,480 between the two sides that the Islamabad talks will need to 120 00:06:57,480 --> 00:06:59,800 bridge. The question is whether Vance, 121 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:02,920 Witkoff and Kushner understand that the path to a durable 122 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:05,720 nuclear settlement runs through a Lebanon arrangement and 123 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:08,320 whether they have the authority from Trump to negotiate. 1 124 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:12,400 Despite the Irgc's halt announcement, ship tracking data 125 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:15,880 told a more complex story. Marine Traffic confirmed that 126 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:19,520 two vessels the Greek owned in Jay Earth and the Liberia flag 127 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:22,840 Daytona Beach, had transited the Strait of Hormuz overnight since 128 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:26,440 the ceasefire was announced. Both were bulk carriers carrying 129 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:30,400 dry cargo, not oil tankers. Overall, traffic through the 130 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:33,800 waterway had not picked up beyond the slow trickle scene 131 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:37,560 throughout the war. Before the war, between 100 and 132 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:41,920 120 commercial vessels transited the straight daily shipping. 133 00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:45,480 Executives were blunt, 1 executive with boats currently 134 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:47,720 stuck in the Persian Gulf told CNBC. 135 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,840 We have no information about how we could transit the Strait of 136 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:54,720 Hormuz during the ceasefire. We are not in contact with 137 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:58,080 Iranian authorities. The most important thing for us 138 00:07:58,080 --> 00:07:59,880 is the safety of our crew members. 139 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:04,080 If we were deciding to transit, we need absolute guarantees 140 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:06,000 about the safety of our crew members. 141 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:09,040 That statement captures the practical reality of the 142 00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:11,680 ceasefire's most immediate economic test. 143 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:15,880 The oil market fell 13% on Tuesday night on the news of the 144 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:18,560 ceasefire. If the straight does not begin 145 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:22,200 flowing with oil within days, that relief will partially 146 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:24,880 reverse. Roberto Janetta, chairman of the 147 00:08:24,880 --> 00:08:27,920 Hong Kong Liner Shipping Association, was also blunt. 148 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:30,880 If he were a ship owner or operator stuck in the Persian 149 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:34,520 Gulf, he would wait a few days to see how the US, Israel and 150 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:37,760 Iran respond to the ceasefire. If it looks likely to be 151 00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:40,679 sticking, he said he might try moving vessels in the second 152 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:44,039 week or in a cluster or convoy with other ships. 153 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:48,160 Tim Huxley, chairman of Mandarin Shipping, said it is too early 154 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:50,520 to tell. He noted that for sure, some 155 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:53,760 ships will now exit the area, but it remains tense. 156 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:56,920 Underwriters describe the truce as a positive development 157 00:08:56,920 --> 00:08:59,960 overall, but one that carries a number of risks, including a 158 00:08:59,960 --> 00:09:03,200 lack of clarity over which Iranian authority is in charge 159 00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:06,400 of approving transit. That last point, which Iranian 160 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:10,080 authority is the ceasefire's entire practical problem in 161 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:12,720 microcosm. Vance said Wednesday that the 162 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:16,000 administration saw an uptick in traffic, adding they think 163 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:18,840 they're seeing signs the Straight is starting to reopen. 164 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:23,240 Hours later, Iran announced it had stopped tanker traffic again 165 00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:25,720 over Lebanon. The market, watching all of this 166 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:28,800 in real time, is trying to price in a ceasefire that is 167 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:32,280 simultaneously being announced as open and closed by different 168 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:33,880 authorities in different capitals. 169 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:37,440 The Islamabad talks are where the answers must come from. 170 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:41,440 Trump confirmed Wednesday that the US negotiating team will be 171 00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:46,040 led by Vice President JD Vance with special envoy Steve Witkoff 172 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:49,080 and Jared Kushner. The talks are scheduled to begin 173 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:53,320 Saturday morning Islamabad local time, not Friday as originally 174 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:56,000 announced. That one day delay is worth 175 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:58,320 noting. In the context of a fragile 176 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:01,880 ceasefire already under strain from the Lebanon strikes and the 177 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:05,720 Hormones disagreement, a 24 hour delay in getting the delegations 178 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:09,280 to the table is not reassuring. The composition of the American 179 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:12,520 delegation is itself a statement about what Washington is 180 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:15,800 prioritizing. JD Vance leading the delegation 181 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:18,720 is an extraordinary deployment of the Vice President of the 182 00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:21,360 United States on a bilateral diplomatic mission. 183 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:24,840 It signals that Trump regards this as potentially the most 184 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:27,640 consequential diplomatic process of his second term. 185 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:31,240 Steve Witkoff has been involved in every major Middle East 186 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:33,440 negotiation of the Trump administration. 187 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:37,320 Jared Kushner's presence as a direct family link to Trump that 188 00:10:37,320 --> 00:10:40,400 no other envoy can provide. His word carries presidential 189 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:43,480 authority in a way that career diplomats words do not. 190 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:46,640 Whether this team can navigate the nuclear question, the 191 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:49,320 sanctions question, the reparations demand and the 192 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,040 Lebanon dispute in the time available is the defining 193 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:55,280 question of the next 10 days. Whether the delay reflects 194 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:58,680 logistical scheduling or a diplomatic complication relating 195 00:10:58,680 --> 00:11:01,280 to the Hormuz and Lebanon disputes is not confirmed. 196 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:05,320 But the timing is uncomfortable. Trump added his own commentary 197 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:08,200 on Wednesday with a characteristically optimistic 198 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:11,840 social media post. He said big money will be made. 199 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:14,760 Iran can start the reconstruction process. 200 00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:18,360 He called the ceasefire a big day for World Peace. 201 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:21,680 He finished with this could be the golden age of the Middle 202 00:11:21,680 --> 00:11:24,240 East. Those statements sit in unusual 203 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:26,640 tension with what is actually happening on the ground. 204 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:30,560 Lebanon burning, the straight status contested and Vance 205 00:11:30,560 --> 00:11:32,480 describing the ceasefire as fragile. 206 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:35,800 The gap between Trump's social media framing and the 207 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:39,040 operational reality of the first day of the ceasefire is not 208 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:42,440 merely rhetorical. It reflects A genuine divergent 209 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:45,600 within the American position itself between the maximalist 210 00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:48,920 optimism of the president and the more cautious assessment of 211 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:52,200 his own vice president. At a Wednesday press conference, 212 00:11:52,320 --> 00:11:54,600 Trump was asked about uranium enrichment. 213 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:57,720 His answer was the clearest public statement he has made on 214 00:11:57,720 --> 00:11:59,920 the nuclear question since the war began. 215 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:03,720 There will be no enrichment of uranium and the United States 216 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:07,480 will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply 217 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:10,800 buried nuclear dust. He was referencing the hardened 218 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:15,040 underground facilities for Dow Natan's Others that USB-2 219 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:17,720 bombers had struck with bunker busting munitions during the 220 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:20,120 campaign. Trump's framing was that those 221 00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:23,480 sites must not merely be closed, but physically emptied of 222 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:26,800 nuclear material with American involvement in the process. 223 00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:30,280 That is a significantly more specific and more demanding 224 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:33,440 position than anything Trump has said publicly on a nuclear 225 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:38,120 question during the 41 days of this war. 0 Enrichment, full 226 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:42,800 removal of nuclear material, working with Iran on the removal 227 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:45,200 process. That formula will be the 228 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:48,720 centerpiece of whatever the Islamabad talks produce or fail 229 00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:51,400 to produce. Iran's 10 point proposal 230 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:54,800 includes a formal endorsement of Iran's nuclear rights under the 231 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:58,400 Non Proliferation Treaty, which explicitly gives NPT member 232 00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:01,560 states the right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. 233 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:07,080 Iran has been an NPT member since 1970. 0 Enrichment versus 234 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:10,920 the NPT right to enrich is not a bridgeable gap through creative 235 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:13,400 language. It is a binary disagreement 236 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:16,680 about whether Iran retains any nuclear program at all. 237 00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:21,200 How Vance, Witkoff and Kushner navigate that specific binary in 238 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:24,280 Islamabad on Saturday will be the most consequential 239 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:26,680 diplomatic moment of this entire conflict. 240 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:29,920 Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer used Wednesday to 241 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:32,480 deliver one of the most comprehensive Democratic 242 00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:35,680 critiques of the war yet. He said the conflict was one of 243 00:13:35,680 --> 00:13:38,880 the very worst military and foreign policy actions that the 244 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:42,360 United States has ever taken. He argued the war left the US 245 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:46,000 worse off in global credibility, left Iran's nuclear ambitions 246 00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:49,920 unchecked, increased gas prices, and handed Iran leverage over 247 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:53,400 the Strait of Hormuz that it did not have before February 28th. 248 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:57,080 His argument is pointed and politically significant that the 249 00:13:57,080 --> 00:14:00,640 40 Day War achieved the opposite of its stated objectives on 250 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:04,160 several key dimensions. Iran's nuclear program was 251 00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:07,960 damaged but not destroyed. Iran's leverage over global oil 252 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:10,440 markets was demonstrated rather than eliminated. 253 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:14,200 The world now knows that Iran's control over Hormuz translates 254 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:18,840 directly into a global energy crisis. 13 Americans are dead. 255 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:24,320 373 more were wounded. The US spent 10s of billions of 256 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:28,320 dollars and the United States is now negotiating an Islamabad on 257 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:32,000 the basis of a 10 point Iranian proposal, which is to say on 258 00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:35,320 Iran's terms as a starting point, not its own 15 point 259 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:38,480 framework. Iran expert try to Parsi offered 260 00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:41,480 a measured assessment. Trump's failed use of force has 261 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:44,480 blunted the credibility of American military threats. 262 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:47,840 The terrain has shifted, he said, but he added that the 263 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:50,160 Islamabad talks could still fail. 264 00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:53,720 Schumer announced that Senate Democrats will force another war 265 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:55,640 powers vote when Congress returns. 266 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:59,000 The war powers fight did not produce a result before the 267 00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:01,840 ceasefire. Whether it produces 1 during the 268 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:05,520 ceasefire window or whether the Islamabad process renders it 269 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:09,640 moot is one of several domestic political questions that date 41 270 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:12,200 leaves unresolved. China's involvement in the 271 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:15,320 ceasefire negotiations was confirmed by the White House on 272 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:18,200 Wednesday. Press Secretary Levitt confirmed 273 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:21,560 Chinese participation in the truce negotiations with Iran. 274 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:24,520 This is the first official American acknowledgement that 275 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:27,600 Beijing played a role in producing the ceasefire, a 276 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:30,640 significant admission given that China had publicly condemned the 277 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:34,120 war throughout its 40 days. China's position throughout this 278 00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:37,040 conflict has been to condemn the military operations while 279 00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:39,880 maintaining its economic relationships with Iran and 280 00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:43,160 continuing to import Iranian oil through the Strait of Hormuz at 281 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:46,720 concessional rates. China receives roughly 1/3 of 282 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:48,920 its oil through the Strait and peacetime. 283 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:52,840 The Strait's closure has cost Beijing billions of dollars and 284 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:55,720 disrupted supply chains that its economy depends on. 285 00:15:56,120 --> 00:15:59,120 Its emergence as a backstage facilitator of the ceasefire, 286 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:02,800 alongside Pakistan's frontline mediation, reflects the reality 287 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:05,840 that the countries with the most economic exposure to the war's 288 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:09,240 continuation, China and Pakistan, ultimately had more 289 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:12,520 leverage over Iran's decision to accept the ceasefire than the 290 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:15,640 countries doing the bombing. That is a diplomatic observation 291 00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:18,480 that will shape how the world's major powers interpret their 292 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:22,240 role in Islamabad process and the broader regional settlement 293 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:25,920 that must follow the IDF Strikes on Lebanon and the Hormuz 294 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:29,200 dispute were not the only complications on Day 41. 295 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:33,360 Kuwait and the UAE both reported fresh Iranian drone attacks 296 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:35,600 involving dozens of drones on Wednesday. 297 00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:39,480 The IRGC appear to be operating on a different instruction set 298 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:42,440 than Iran's Supreme National Security Council, which have 299 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:45,640 confirmed the ceasefire. This is the command and control 300 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:48,480 problem that analysts had warned about since the ceasefire was 301 00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:51,520 first announced. The IRGC, which has run the 302 00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:54,840 military campaign autonomously throughout the war, does not 303 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:57,840 automatically stand down because a political body in Tehran 304 00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:02,200 issues a ceasefire statement. The IRGC has its own operational 305 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:05,800 timelines, its own targeting logic and, as the Posseski and 306 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:09,560 Vahidi Exchange made clear weeks ago, its own relationship with 307 00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:12,160 the civilian government that has been characterized more by 308 00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:15,720 exclusion and coordination. Whether the Irgc's continued 309 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:18,680 attacks on Gulf states represent a deliberate message to the 310 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:21,599 Supreme National Security Council about the limits of its 311 00:17:21,599 --> 00:17:24,560 authority, a test of whether the ceasefire will hold under 312 00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:28,520 provocation or simply residual operations already in flight, is 313 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:31,200 not confirmed. The practical effect is that 314 00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:33,560 Gulf states that have been hoping Wednesday morning would 315 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:36,600 bring the first quiet night in six weeks instead spin and 316 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:38,640 activating air defense systems again. 317 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:43,360 For Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, none 318 00:17:43,360 --> 00:17:46,640 of them combatants, all of them damaged, the ceasefire has not 319 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:48,640 yet produced a single quiet hour. 320 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:52,520 The ceasefire's fundamental architecture is this a two week 321 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:55,840 pause and bombing contingent on Hormuz reopening with 322 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:59,240 negotiations in Islamabad. Everything else, the Lebanon 323 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:02,600 question, the nuclear question, the sanctions question, the 324 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:06,240 reparations question, the US military presence in the Gulf is 325 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:08,440 unresolved. The two sides are heading to 326 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:11,120 Islamabad to resolve all of it in two weeks. 327 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:14,280 The gap between those objectives and the reality of what is 328 00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:17,920 actually happening on the ground on Day 41 is the widest it has 329 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:21,040 been since the ceasefire was announced less than 24 hours 330 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:23,240 ago. For the Islamabad talks to 331 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:26,160 produce anything durable, they need to achieve, at minimum, the 332 00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:29,480 following a shared understanding between the US and Iran about 333 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:32,160 what Lebanon status is during the ceasefire period. 334 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:36,720 A concrete, verifiable mechanism for Hormuz to reopen and for oil 335 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:40,840 to flow without Iranian imposed transit fees and without Iranian 336 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:43,160 military coordination requirements that shipping 337 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:45,880 companies cannot accept. And a framework for nuclear 338 00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:50,080 talks that gives Iran something it can describe to its domestic 339 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:53,200 audience as acknowledgement of its status as a sovereign state, 340 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:56,000 while giving the United States something it can describe as a 341 00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:59,040 verifiable constraint on Iran's nuclear program. 342 00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:01,560 None of those three things is easy. 343 00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:05,200 All three are necessary conditions for a ceasefire that 344 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:09,400 lasts beyond two weeks. For Iran, the Islamabad talks 345 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:12,480 represent the first time in 41 days that its civilian 346 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,640 leadership, Karachi and the Foreign Ministry will help 347 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:18,560 platform. Whether the IRGC will allow the 348 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:22,160 civilian government to negotiate substantively or whether it will 349 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:25,040 undercut the talks from the military side the same way it 350 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:27,760 undercut possession throughout the war is the governance 351 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:30,440 question that Pakistan's mediators cannot answer. 352 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:33,200 For Tehran, there is an additional dimension that the 353 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:37,520 ceasefire has not yet addressed. Iran's Supreme National Security 354 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:40,760 Council claimed in its ceasefire statement that nearly all of the 355 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:42,560 war's objectives have been achieved. 356 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:45,920 That framing served a domestic political purpose. 357 00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:49,480 It allowed Common A to present the ceasefire as victory rather 358 00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:52,600 than surrender. But it also creates a problem 359 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:56,160 for the Islamabad process. If the Iranian public has been 360 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:59,040 told the war's objectives have been achieved, then any 361 00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:02,040 concession made in Islamabad on the nuclear question, the 362 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:04,920 sanctions question or Hormuz governance will be presented 363 00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,280 domestically as a betrayal of that victory. 364 00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:11,120 Iran's negotiating position in Islamabad is constrained not 365 00:20:11,120 --> 00:20:14,680 only by the IRGC, but by the political narrative its own 366 00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:17,200 leadership created when it announced the ceasefire. 367 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:20,480 The internal Iranian decision making structure that produced 368 00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:24,120 the ceasefire, apparently driven by Common A himself through the 369 00:20:24,120 --> 00:20:27,120 Supreme National Security Council, will need to remain 370 00:20:27,120 --> 00:20:29,400 coherent throughout the Islamabad process. 371 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:33,120 History and the events of the past 41 days suggest that 372 00:20:33,120 --> 00:20:36,840 coherence is not guaranteed. The gap between Trump's social 373 00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,880 media framing of Day 41. Big money will be made. 374 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:42,960 This could be the golden age of the Middle East and the ground 375 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:45,880 reality of Lebanon under its heaviest strikes of the war. 376 00:20:46,120 --> 00:20:49,760 The IRGC continuing drone operations against Gulf states, 377 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,880 the straight contested and Vance describing the ceasefire as 378 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,840 fragile is not a minor rhetorical discrepancy. 379 00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,400 It is a substantive divergent about the state of the world 380 00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:02,960 that will create problems in Islamabad when Iran's delegation 381 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,840 arrives on Saturday and is presented with an American 382 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,680 counterpart whose president is publicly describing the golden 383 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:12,760 age of the Middle East while 182 Lebanese are dead from Israeli 384 00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:15,800 strikes that began hours after the ceasefire was announced. 385 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,600 The emotional and political distance between the two 386 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,200 delegations will be considerable. 387 00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:24,920 Diplomacy can bridge distance. It cannot pretend the distance 388 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,840 does not exist. If this podcast is helping you 389 00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:31,160 make sense of what is happening, please take 30 seconds to leave 390 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:33,840 a review on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. 391 00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:37,200 It makes an enormous difference to how many people find the 392 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:40,200 show. This has been episode 41 of Epic 393 00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:44,560 Fury, the US Iran war podcast Day 41. 394 00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:48,320 The ceasefire is fragile. Lebanon is burning. 395 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:53,520 The Strait is contested. The IRGC is still flying drones 396 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:57,040 over Gulf states. Vance is flying to Islamabad. 397 00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:59,960 The nuclear question is starkly framed. 398 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:02,880 And the two week clock that will determine whether this pause 399 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:07,160 becomes peace or resumes as war began ticking less than 24 hours 400 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:09,800 ago. We will be back very soon.