1 00:00:16,820 --> 00:00:20,140 The United States promised its most intense day of strikes 2 00:00:20,140 --> 00:00:24,100 inside Iran on Tuesday. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth 3 00:00:24,100 --> 00:00:26,860 stood at a podium of the Pentagon and told reporters. 4 00:00:27,060 --> 00:00:29,980 The most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes, 5 00:00:30,140 --> 00:00:32,700 intelligence more refined and better than ever. 6 00:00:33,140 --> 00:00:36,420 And then, while those words were still in the air, an Iranian 7 00:00:36,420 --> 00:00:39,980 drone struck an American diplomatic facility in Baghdad, 8 00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:44,840 Iran laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a fire broke out at one 9 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:48,000 of the region's largest oil refineries in the United Arab 10 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:51,280 Emirates, and Iran's top national security official 11 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:55,040 issued A thinly veiled threat against Trump's personal safety. 12 00:00:55,560 --> 00:01:01,080 Day 12 of Operation Epic Fury. This is episode 12 of Epic Fury, 13 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:04,800 the US Iran war podcast. Let us get into it. 14 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:08,640 The Pentagon press conference on Tuesday morning set the tone for 15 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:11,920 the entire day. Hegseth appeared alongside 16 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:15,040 General Dan Kane, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, 17 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:17,720 and between the two of them, they delivered the clearest 18 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:20,960 official articulation yet of what the United States military 19 00:01:20,960 --> 00:01:22,640 is actually trying to accomplish. 20 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:26,920 Kane said U.S. forces have now struck more than 5000 targets 21 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:30,400 since the conflict began. He laid out three operational 22 00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:33,280 objectives. Neutralize Iran's ballistic 23 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:37,360 missile and drone capability. Destroy Iran's Navy to allow 24 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:41,000 movement through the Strait of Hormuz and strike deeper into 25 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:43,440 Iran's military and industrial base. 26 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:46,960 Hegseth went further. He said the goal was to 27 00:01:46,960 --> 00:01:49,960 permanently deny Iran nuclear weapons forever. 28 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:54,280 Not temporarily degrade, not set back by years. 29 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:59,480 Permanently deny forever. Hegseth was also asked directly 30 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:01,560 whether he could say when the war would end. 31 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:06,200 He declined to give a timeline. He said Trump gets to control 32 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:08,800 the throttle. He said Trump is the one 33 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:11,880 deciding when particular objectives are being achieved. 34 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:14,960 He said it is not for me to posit whether it is the 35 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:17,280 beginning, the middle or the end. 36 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:20,200 That is a significant departure from the messaging of the 37 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:23,680 previous day when Trump told House Republicans the war was a 38 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:27,920 short term excursion and would end pretty quickly 24 hours 39 00:02:27,920 --> 00:02:29,840 later. His own Defense Secretary 40 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:33,400 refused to confirm that framing. The Pentagon and the White House 41 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:36,840 are not speaking with one voice on how long this war will last, 42 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:39,240 and the gap between the two is widening. 43 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,920 The rhetorical escalation from Iran on Tuesday was 44 00:02:42,920 --> 00:02:46,240 extraordinary. Ali Larijani, the secretary of 45 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:49,200 Iran's Supreme National Security Council and one of the most 46 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:52,280 senior figures in the Iranian government, issued a direct 47 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:56,080 response to Trump's Truth Social post, threatening to hit Iran 20 48 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:58,920 times harder. Larijani reposted Trump's 49 00:02:58,920 --> 00:03:00,920 message on X with his own comment. 50 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:05,120 He said the Iranian people do not fear your hollow threats. 51 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:08,440 He said more powerful forces than Trump's White House had 52 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:11,280 failed to wipe them out. And then he added a line that 53 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:14,600 carried an unmistakable personal menace, that people who 54 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:17,640 threatened others with death and fire should be careful not to be 55 00:03:17,640 --> 00:03:21,120 eliminated themselves. A senior Iranian official in a 56 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:24,440 public post on social media has just warned the president of the 57 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:26,960 United States to be careful not to be eliminated. 58 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:30,600 That sentence will have been read by every intelligence 59 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:34,360 agency on the planet. It will have been assessed, it 60 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:37,680 will have been briefed, and it tells you something profound 61 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,920 about where the threshold of Iranian public rhetoric now 62 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:43,560 sits. On Day 12, Larijani also 63 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:46,000 addressed the Strait of Hormuz directly. 64 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:48,920 He said the Strait will either be a Strait of peace and 65 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:52,440 prosperity for all or a Strait of defeat and suffering for 66 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:54,840 warmongers. The message is clear. 67 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:58,200 Iran is prepared to make the Strait a weapon of economic 68 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:01,320 destruction and is daring the United States to try to take it 69 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:04,160 back by force. And Iran is not just 70 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:07,920 threatening, it has begun laying naval mines in the Strait of 71 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:10,800 Hormuz. CNN confirmed the mine laying on 72 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:14,400 Tuesday, citing 2 people familiar with United States 73 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:16,160 intelligence reporting on the matter. 74 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,440 The significance of this cannot be overstated. 75 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:24,080 Mines do not discriminate. They sit on the seabed or near 76 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:27,160 the surface and detonate on contact with any vessel. 77 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:29,880 They do not know whether the ship that triggers them is a 78 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:33,680 military vessel or a commercial tanker carrying crude oil to 79 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:37,280 Japan or a liquefied natural gas carrier bound for Germany. 80 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:40,720 Mines are one of the oldest and most indiscriminate forms of 81 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:44,160 naval warfare and Iran has just introduced them into the world's 82 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:46,080 most important energy choke point. 83 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:50,960 Trump responded on Truth Social. He said if Iran has put out any 84 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:54,240 mines in the Hormuz Strait, he wants them removed immediately. 85 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:57,760 He said if mines were placed and not removed, the military 86 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:01,320 consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before. 87 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:04,840 Hegseth followed on X, posting that at Trump's direction, 88 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:08,520 CENTCOM has been eliminating inactive mine laying vessels in 89 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:10,240 the Strait with ruthless precision. 90 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:14,680 CENTCOM later confirmed it had destroyed 16 Iranian mine layer 91 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:17,240 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, along with multiple 92 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,600 other naval ships. the United States Navy does not have a 93 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:23,680 single dedicated minesweeper in the Persian Gulf. 94 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:27,240 The last four specialized mine countermeasure ships that had 95 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:30,120 served in the Gulf for decades were decommissioned in September 96 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:32,920 last year and sent back to the United States for scrapping. 97 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:36,800 Mine sweeping duties were transferred to 4 literal combat 98 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:39,440 ships which are not purpose built for the task. 99 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:43,120 Iran knows this. The mining of the Strait is not 100 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:46,880 a random act of desperation. It is a deliberate strategic 101 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:50,600 move that exploits a specific gap in American naval capability 102 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:53,520 at exactly the moment when keeping the straight open is the 103 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:56,520 central economic objective of the entire campaign. 104 00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:59,840 Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced on Tuesday that the 105 00:05:59,840 --> 00:06:02,680 United States Navy had successfully escorted an oil 106 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:05,640 tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, describing it as the 107 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:08,960 first such operation since Operation Epic Fury began. 108 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:12,520 The escort demonstrates that the United States can physically 109 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,760 move a vessel through the Strait under military protection. 110 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:20,480 It does not mean the Strait is open for commercial traffic. 1 111 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:24,200 Escorted tanker is a proof of concept, not a solution. 112 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:28,320 The commercial shipping industry needs consistent, insurable, 113 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:33,080 scalable transit. 1 Navy escort does not deliver that, but it is 114 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:36,160 a meaningful signal that the military is actively developing 115 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:39,280 the operational framework for protecting transit and that the 116 00:06:39,280 --> 00:06:41,560 Strait has not been completely sealed off. 117 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:45,560 Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil exporter, issued a 118 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:49,120 statement on Tuesday warning of catastrophic consequences if the 119 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:52,040 conflict continued to disrupt shipping through the Strait of 120 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:54,760 Hormuz. Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth 121 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:57,960 and the financial foundations of the entire Gulf Cooperation 122 00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:00,680 Council are built on the assumption that Gulf oil can 123 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:03,120 reliably reach global markets through the Strait. 124 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:06,800 Saudi Arabia intercepted 6 ballistic missiles aimed at 125 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:09,120 Prince Sultan Air Base on Tuesday alone. 126 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:12,960 It is simultaneously defending its own territory, warning of 127 00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:15,880 catastrophic global consequences, and watching the 128 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:19,040 waterway through which its entire economic future flows 129 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:22,760 being mined by its neighbor. Iraq opened another significant 130 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:24,640 front in the conflict complexity. 131 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:28,240 On Tuesday, Iraqi authorities announced they are exploring 132 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:31,560 alternative routes to export the country's oil after Hormuz 133 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:34,520 Transit was disrupted. The Iraqi oil Ministry 134 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:37,920 spokesperson said production and marketing have been severely 135 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:40,760 impacted, leaving the government no choice but to seek 136 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:44,640 alternative export routes. Iraq has oil shipments stuck at 137 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:46,840 sea. This is a country watching its 138 00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:50,280 primary revenue stream being choked off by a war it did not 139 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:55,040 start, does not want and cannot stop, and is simultaneously 140 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:58,520 defending itself against Iranian backed militia attacks on 141 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:00,880 American facilities on its own territory. 142 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:04,680 The Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center, a large logistical and 143 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:07,800 operational hub near the Baghdad International Airport, was 144 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:12,480 struck by suspected Iranian drone on Tuesday. 1 drone struck 145 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:16,000 near a guard tower. Five others were intercepted. 146 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:19,440 The attack was believed to have been carried out by the Islamic 147 00:08:19,440 --> 00:08:22,400 Resistance in Iraq. The umbrella grouping of Iran 148 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:24,720 backed armed factions operating in the country. 149 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:28,760 The State Department last week ordered non-emergency personnel 150 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:32,480 to leave Iraq entirely. The attack suggests that even 151 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:35,559 the reduced American presence that remains is not safe. 152 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:39,600 The drone attack on the Ruais industrial complex in United 153 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:43,039 Arab Emirates on Tuesday ignited a fire at one of the region's 154 00:08:43,039 --> 00:08:46,760 largest oil refineries. No injuries were reported. 155 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:49,800 But Ruais is not a military target. 156 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:53,760 It is a civilian petrochemical and refining complex. 157 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:57,520 Iran's Joint Military Command issued a statement on Tuesday 158 00:08:57,680 --> 00:09:00,480 declaring that banks and financial institutions are now 159 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:02,560 also a target across the Middle East. 160 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:06,160 The deliberate escalation to civilian, financial and energy 161 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:09,400 infrastructure is the strategic logic of a country that cannot 162 00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:12,760 match American airpower in the skies and is choosing instead to 163 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:15,720 make the economic cost of the war unbearable for the entire 164 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:17,480 region and by extension, the world. 165 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:20,920 Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed on Tuesday that they had 166 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:23,960 launched their most intense and heaviest operation since the 167 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:26,880 start of the war. Kuwait's National Guard shot 168 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:30,840 down 6 drones. Qatar intercepted 5 ballistic 169 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:33,600 missiles. Saudi Arabia destroyed 6 170 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:36,480 ballistic missiles aimed at Prince Sultan Air Base. 171 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:40,800 UAE shot down 9 drones, with one getting through to hit Ruwais. 172 00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:45,840 Sirens sounded across Jerusalem. Explosions were heard in Tel 173 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:48,320 Aviv. Hezbollah launched missiles into 174 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:51,440 northern Israel. Israel struck Tehran again, 175 00:09:51,680 --> 00:09:55,120 hitting central command centers before launching a second wave 176 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:58,840 targeting a suburb of Beirut. Overnight, Israel also struck 177 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:02,720 the city of Tabriz in northwest Iran, a significant expansion of 178 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:05,560 the geographic footprint of Israeli strikes beyond the 179 00:10:05,560 --> 00:10:08,520 traditional targets in and around Tehran and the central 180 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:11,200 nuclear sites. The death toll crossed new 181 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:15,400 thresholds on Tuesday. Iran says more than 1300 182 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:18,640 civilians have been killed in Iran since February 28th. 183 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:23,480 In Lebanon, at least 570 people have been killed since Israel 184 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:27,520 began strikes on the country. 13 Israelis have been killed and 185 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:30,240 nearly 2000 wounded in Iranian attacks. 186 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:34,960 Two additional UAE nationals were killed on Tuesday. 7 187 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:37,840 sailors have been killed in attacks on merchant ships near 188 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:40,680 the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon disclosed for the 189 00:10:40,680 --> 00:10:44,680 first time that approximately 140 United States service 190 00:10:44,680 --> 00:10:48,160 members have been wounded in the conflict. 7 American service 191 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:52,760 members have been killed. Nearly 700,000 people have been 192 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:56,240 displaced in Lebanon. Australia moved on Tuesday to 193 00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:59,640 grant asylum to the Iranian women's National Football team, 194 00:10:59,880 --> 00:11:02,880 whose players are stranded after the outbreak of the war made 195 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:07,080 their return to Iran impossible. FIFA President Johnny Infantino 196 00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:10,480 said he had spoken to Trump and received assurances that Iran's 197 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:13,160 team will be permitted to come to the United States for the 198 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:16,280 World Cup later this year. The Iranian women's football 199 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:19,720 team seeking asylum in Australia is a detail that carries the 200 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:23,000 full texture of what it means to be an ordinary Iranian during 201 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:26,200 this conflict. These are athletes, they were 202 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:30,880 outside Iran when the war began, they cannot go home and they are 203 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:34,360 now seeking to be accepted as refugees by a country on the 204 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:37,440 other side of the planet. The Trump administration took an 205 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:40,440 action on the economic front on Tuesday that went almost 206 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:43,760 unnoticed amid the military developments but whose strategic 207 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:46,960 implications are significant. The administration eased 208 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:49,960 restrictions on Russian oil exports to counter rising 209 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:53,680 domestic petrol prices driven by the disruption to Gulf supply. 210 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:56,440 This is the United States government formally and 211 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:59,640 deliberately opening up the flow of Russian oil into global 212 00:11:59,640 --> 00:12:03,200 markets to counteract an energy crisis caused by war the United 213 00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:06,040 States started. It reduces the effectiveness of 214 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:09,320 the sanctions architecture maintained against Russia since 215 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:12,760 the invasion of Ukraine. It hands Vladimir Putin, who has 216 00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:15,440 been providing targeting intelligence to Iran while 217 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:19,160 congratulating its new supreme leader, a significant economic 218 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:22,000 and political victory. Senator Chris Murphy of 219 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:25,360 Connecticut emerged from a 2 hour classified war briefing on 220 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:28,160 Capitol Hill on Tuesday and described what he heard as 221 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:31,720 incoherent and incomplete. He said he worries the conflict 222 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:35,200 could become an endless war. He said all the briefings are 223 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:38,480 closed because Trump cannot defend this war in public. 224 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:41,280 The fact that he chose to come out of that briefing and 225 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:44,920 describe it publicly using the word incoherent, suggests the 226 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:48,480 gap between the administration's public messaging and its actual 227 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:50,360 operational planning is significant. 228 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:53,480 Hegseth also acknowledged something on Tuesday that had 229 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:57,800 been largely unspoken until now. He said Israel has its own 230 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:01,520 objectives for the conflict. That sentence is a remarkable 231 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:05,760 admission. the United States and Israel are conducting a joint 232 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:09,080 military operation. They are striking the same 233 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:12,400 country, but they have different objectives. 234 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:16,360 America wants to permanently deny Iran nuclear weapons. 235 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:19,960 Israel wants to destroy Hezbollah, degrade Iran's 236 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:23,680 capacity to threaten Israeli territory and potentially bring 237 00:13:23,680 --> 00:13:27,000 about regime change. Those objectives overlap, but 238 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:30,720 they are not identical. And as the conflict continues, 239 00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:34,160 the divergent between American and Israeli goals will become 240 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:38,080 more, not less, visible. There is one more development 241 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:40,840 from Tuesday that demands specific attention. 242 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:44,400 The Defense Intelligence Agency released a preliminary low 243 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:47,600 confidence assessment that Iran had moved much of its stockpile 244 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:51,160 of enriched uranium before the American strikes took place and 245 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:53,160 that the strikes did not collapse the underground 246 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:55,680 facilities. The assessment said the strikes 247 00:13:55,680 --> 00:13:59,040 set back Iran's ability to produce nuclear weapons by only 248 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:02,280 a matter of months, not years, months. 249 00:14:02,680 --> 00:14:05,960 CIA Director John Ratcliffe pushed back, saying new 250 00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:09,280 information indicated severe damage to the nuclear facilities 251 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:12,760 that would take years for Iran to rebuild. 2 separate 252 00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:16,280 intelligence agencies diametrically opposed 253 00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:19,920 conclusions about the most important strategic question of 254 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:23,520 the entire conflict, whether the strikes have actually succeeded 255 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:25,400 in their stated primary objective. 256 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:28,600 If the Defense Intelligence Agency's assessment is even 257 00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:32,400 partially correct, the entire justification for Operation Epic 258 00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:35,680 Fury is called into question. The war was launched to 259 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:38,800 permanently deny Iran the ability to acquire nuclear 260 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:41,080 weapons. If the enriched uranium was 261 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:44,280 moved before the strikes began, if the underground facilities 262 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:47,480 were not collapsed, and if the program has only been set back 263 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:50,240 by months, then the United States has spent more than $10 264 00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:54,960 billion, killed more than 1300 Iranians, displaced hundreds of 265 00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:58,040 thousands of people, disrupted global oil market strain 266 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:01,840 alliances, and placed American personnel across the Middle East 267 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:06,120 in direct danger in exchange for a nuclear set back measurable in 268 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:09,080 months. The administration's insistence 269 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:12,360 that Ratcliffe's more optimistic assessment is correct does not 270 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:14,200 resolve the underlying uncertainty. 271 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:17,080 It deepens it. The broader international 272 00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:20,520 response to Date 12 reflected full global alarm. 273 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:24,200 Pakistan announced it would deploy naval vessels to escort 274 00:15:24,200 --> 00:15:26,720 Pakistani flagged oil tankers through the Gulf. 275 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:30,640 Japan convened an emergency cabinet meeting on energy 276 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:33,120 security. India said it was in direct 277 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:36,560 contact with the United States and Gulf states about protecting 278 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:40,440 Indian flag vessels. South Korea activated emergency 279 00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:44,520 fuel rationing protocols for the first time since the 1970s oil 280 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:47,320 crisis. Germany's economy minister told 281 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:50,640 the Bundestag that Germany had enough natural gas reserves for 282 00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:54,120 approximately 6 weeks at current consumption levels and that if 283 00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:56,960 the conflict continued beyond that window without a hormone 284 00:15:56,960 --> 00:16:00,520 solution, Germany would face mandatory industrial rationing. 285 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:04,200 The war that began as a targeted military operation against 286 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:08,400 Iran's military and nuclear infrastructure has become in 12 287 00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:12,720 days a global energy emergency touching every major economy on 288 00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:14,840 the planet. The Lebanon dimension of the 289 00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:18,600 conflict deepened significantly on Tuesday in ways that deserve 290 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:22,040 specific attention. Lebanon's President Joseph On 291 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:24,760 made a public statement calling on the international community 292 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,560 to provide the Lebanese Armed Forces with equipment and 293 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:30,360 logistical support to help in the government's campaign to 294 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:33,240 disarm Hezbollah. He said Lebanon was ready to 295 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:36,440 enter direct talks with Israel under the supervision of 296 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:39,000 international mediators to reach a solution. 297 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:42,400 Those are remarkable words from a Lebanese president. 298 00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:44,960 A Lebanese head of state publicly calling for the 299 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:47,640 disarmament of Hezbollah and offering direct talks with 300 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:51,320 Israel on the record represents A dramatic shift in Lebanese 301 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:54,160 political positioning. The new Lebanese government, 302 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:57,160 which came to power determined to assert state authority over 303 00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:00,400 Hezbollah, is attempting to use this conflict to the lever to 304 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:03,600 permanently diminish the organization's military power. 305 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:06,280 The Lebanese government has already announced it would 306 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:09,680 arrest and repatriate anyone in Lebanon connected to Iran's 307 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:13,560 Revolutionary Guards, leading to the departure of more than 150 308 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:17,079 Iranian nationals from Beirut, including diplomats and Kurds 309 00:17:17,079 --> 00:17:19,760 Force military advisors who have been running Hezbollah's 310 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:23,240 operations for years. Israel's response to Lebanon's 311 00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:25,359 diplomatic opening was a rejection. 312 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:28,960 Israel told Lebanese interlocutors the negotiations 313 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:30,640 would only take place under fire. 314 00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:34,640 Beirut demanded a cessation of hostilities before any meeting. 315 00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:38,920 Israel wanted to discuss only the possibility of a cessation. 316 00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:41,960 The sequencing disagreement meant the talks did not 317 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:45,680 materialize, and in the meantime, Israel authorized its 318 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:49,160 military to push deeper into southern Lebanon, expanded 319 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:52,560 evacuation orders to additional villages and struck the Dahiya 320 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:54,600 suburb of Beirut again overnight. 321 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:58,560 Israeli President Isaac Herzog visited an air defense battery 322 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:01,640 along the Lebanese border on Tuesday and said Israel was 323 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:04,360 determined to dismantle Hezbollah once and for all. 324 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:07,760 The political isolation of Hezbollah inside Lebanon is 325 00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:10,480 accelerating in ways that would have been unthinkable a year 326 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:12,960 ago. Hezbollah has lost significant 327 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:16,160 support even within parts of the Shia community it has 328 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,120 traditionally dominated. The Lebanese government has 329 00:18:19,120 --> 00:18:21,600 banned Hezbollah's military activities. 330 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:25,680 Over 150 Iranian nationals have left the country. 331 00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:29,240 The organization's financial capacity has been degraded by 332 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:32,200 the destruction of al Qaeda. Al Hassan, the financial 333 00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:35,280 institution that funded its weapons purchases and paid its 334 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:39,040 fighter salaries, and Iran Speaker of Parliament Mohammed 335 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:43,080 Bagar Galabaf made clear on Tuesday that Iran itself is not 336 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:46,640 seeking A ceasefire, removing any diplomatic cover Hezbollah 337 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:48,600 might use to justify standing down. 338 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:51,600 The organization is caught between a Lebanese government 339 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:55,040 demanding its disarmament and Israeli military determined to 340 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:58,280 finish it and an Iranian patron that has told it to keep 341 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:01,480 fighting. On Day 12, Hezbollah's strategic 342 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:04,080 position is as precarious as it has ever been. 343 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:09,320 Day 12 of Operation Epic Fury, the most intense day of strikes 344 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:11,760 yet, by the Pentagon's own description. 345 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:17,000 Mines in the Strait, an American facility struck in Baghdad, An 346 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:20,160 Iranian official threatening the American president's personal 347 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:23,880 safety, A fire at one of the Gulf's largest refineries. 348 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:28,800 700,000 Lebanese displaced. Contradictory intelligence 349 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:31,560 assessments on whether the nuclear mission has even 350 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:34,240 succeeded. And the United States quietly 351 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:37,520 unlocking Russian oil exports to cope with the energy shock from 352 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:40,320 a war it is still in the middle of fighting. 353 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:43,680 There is a word for a conflict that is simultaneously 354 00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:47,440 escalating militarily, spreading geographically, generating 355 00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:50,920 global economic damage, producing a growing humanitarian 356 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:54,520 catastrophe, and resisting every diplomatic attempt to contain 357 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:56,760 it. That word is not short term. 358 00:19:57,240 --> 00:20:00,920 That word is not excursion. That word is war. 359 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,320 And on day 12, it shows no sign of ending. 360 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:09,720 That is episode 12 of Epic Fury, the US Iran war podcast. 361 00:20:10,120 --> 00:20:13,760 Subscribe on Spotify, Apple Podcast or YouTube so you never 362 00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:16,640 miss an episode. Share this with someone trying 363 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:20,000 to make sense of what is happening and we will be back 364 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:20,880 very soon.