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A second round of talks is 
coming. 

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Trump told the New York Post 
that new US Iran negotiations 

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could happen over the next two 
days, and he said we are more 

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inclined to go there, a 
reference to Islamabad. 

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Bloomberg confirmed that both 
sides are looking to arrange a 

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second round before the 
ceasefire expires. 

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The blockade is working. 6 
merchant vessels turn around 

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after contact with US naval 
forces. 

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The sanctioned Chinese tanker 
pass through anyway. 

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Iran is clearing debris from its
underground missile bases, an 

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Iran regime sources told 
journalists on Tuesday. 

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We don't trust the United States
and we are also being very busy 

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preparing ourselves for the next
round of war. 

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It is Wednesday, April 15th, 
2026, day 47 of Operation Epic 

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Fury. 6 days remain on the 
ceasefire clock. 

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The blockade is active, the 
diplomacy is accelerating, and 

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both of those things are 
happening simultaneously in ways

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that are pulling in opposite 
directions. 

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This is episode 47 of Epic Fury,
the US Iran War podcast. 

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Follow on Spotify and Apple 
Podcast to stay with this story 

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as it develops. 
Let's get into it. 

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Begin with the diplomatic 
acceleration, because the 

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Bloomberg report and Trump's New
York Post call back are the most

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consequential developments of 
Day 47, and because they changed

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the meaning of everything else 
that happened. 

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Bloomberg reported, citing 
people familiar with the matter,

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that the US and Iran are looking
to arrange a second round of 

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peace talks in the coming days, 
with Tehran considering a pause 

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in Hormuz shipments to help ease
agreement on time and place. 

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One proposal is to return to 
Pakistan, where the initial 

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talks were held last weekend, 
though other venues are also 

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being considered. 
The objective, according to 

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Bloomberg sources, is to hold 
more discussions before the 

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ceasefire expires next week. 
A White House official confirmed

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to CNBC on Tuesday morning that 
a second round is under 

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discussion, though nothing has 
been officially scheduled yet. 

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Trump then called the New York 
Post back about 30 minutes after

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his initial interview to update 
his position. 

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He said. 
The next talks could be 

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happening over the next two 
days, he said. 

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We are more inclined to go there
indicating Islamabad as the 

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preferred venue, he said We are 
working on it, that sequence. 

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Bloomberg sources White House 
official confirmation Trump 

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calling a journalist back with 
updated intelligence is the 

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diplomatic signal of a process 
moving faster than the blockade 

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announcement from 48 hours 
earlier suggested it would. 

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The blockade was presented by 
Trump as a consequence of talks 

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failing. 
The rapid movement toward a 

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second round suggests the 
blockade is being used as a 

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pressure instrument to 
accelerate a second attempt, 

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rather than as a terminal act of
escalation. 

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That distinction matters 
enormously for what the next six

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days produce. 
The question is what is 

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different about a second round? 
Vance's written final offer is 

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on the table in Islamabad. 
Iran has it. 

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If Tehran returns to the table 
without having accepted the core

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American demand, a commitment 
never to seek a nuclear weapon, 

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then the second round begins at 
exactly the same impasse where 

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the 1st 1 ended. 
The blockades, economic 

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pressure, the missile city 
reconstitution, the Chinese 

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tanker, the Lebanon talks, and 
Trump's cryptic phone call from 

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the right people are all inputs 
into what Iran's position will 

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be when delegation walks back 
into the Serena Hotel. 

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Whether those inputs have 
shifted Iranian calculations 

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enough to produce a different 
outcome from a second 21 hour 

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session is the central unknown 
of the next six days. 

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Bloomberg also noted that Tehran
is mulling a pause in Hormuz 

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shipments as a gesture to help 
ease agreement on time and place

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for the second round. 
A pause in Hormuz shipments 

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voluntarily as a signal of good 
faith would be a meaningful 

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concession. 
It would allow both sides to say

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the blockade was not necessary 
and the ceasefire process is 

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working. 
Whether that gesture 

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materializes or whether it is a 
negotiating posture that Iran 

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floats without intending to 
deliver will be visible in the 

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ship tracking data over the next
48 hours. 

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Vance, speaking on Fox News on 
Tuesday, said he believed the 

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Iranian sitting across the table
in Islamabad wanted to make a 

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deal despite decades of 
mistrust. 

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That is a significant statement 
from the man who spent 21 hours 

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in those negotiations and who 
characterized the outcome as bad

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news for Iran, much more than 
for the United States. 

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Evans genuinely believes the 
Iranians wanted a deal. 

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The implication is that the 
failure in Islamabad was not a 

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failure of Iranian will, but a 
failure of the specific terms on

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offer. 
That the gap between what the US

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was asking and what Iran could 
publicly accept in this moment 

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was simply too wide. 
That reading supports the logic 

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of a second round. 
If both sides want a deal but 

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the first round's terms were too
demanding for Iran to accept 

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immediately, the second round 
with modified terms or a longer 

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timeline could produce different
results. 

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Vance said he's going to 
continue fighting for what he 

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described as the grand bargain 
that Trump wants to make with 

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Tehran. 
He also said he has been 

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frustrated to see some Catholic 
clergy criticize US policies but

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that he still likes and admires 
the Pope, a notable softening 

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from Trump's own Truth Social 
attack on Pope Leo the 14th the 

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previous night. 
The Pope, for his part, vowed to

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keep speaking out and said he 
had No Fear of the Trump 

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administration. 
Italy's Prime Minister, Georgia 

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Maloney, called Trump's attacks 
on the pontiff unacceptable, a 

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significant statement from one 
of Trump's closest European 

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political allies, delivered 
publicly and without ambiguity. 

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The Pope debate is a sidebar to 
the war, but it is a sidebar 

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that reveals the limits of 
Trump's political coalition, 

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even among its most sympathetic 
members on the blockades. 

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First full day of enforcement. 
Centcom reported that no ships 

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made it past the blockade and 
that's six merchant vessels 

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complied with direction from US 
naval forces to turn around and 

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re enter an Iranian port on the 
Gulf of Oman. 

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That is the first concrete 
enforcement data from the 

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blockades operation and 
represents A meaningful 

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demonstration that the US naval 
presence is producing 

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compliance. 6 ships turn around.
No ships got through on the 

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first full day. 
That is not a leaky blockade. 

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The exception is the Chinese 
tanker. 

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Reuters reported that a Chinese 
flag tanker previously 

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sanctioned by Washington for 
dealing with Iran passed through

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the Strait of Hormuz despite the
US blockade. 

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The vessel and its owner, 
Shanghai Shinrun Shipping 

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Company, have been designated 
under U.S. sanctions for Iranian

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oil trade. 
China's Foreign Ministry 

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dismissed reports of China 
supplying weapons to Iran as 

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completely made-up, but the 
sanctioned tankers transit is 

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the first practical test of how 
the blockade handles vessels 

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from a country that has publicly
condemned it as dangerous and 

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irresponsible, and the test did 
not produce an interception, the

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CENTCOM blockade announcement 
said. 

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Any vessel entering or departing
the blockaded area without 

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authorization is subject to 
interception, diversion, and 

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capture. 
A previously sanctioned Chinese 

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flag vessel transiting to or 
from an Iranian linked 

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destination would seem to fall 
precisely within that category. 

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Whether US naval forces did not 
see it, chose not to intercept 

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it for diplomatic reasons, or 
determine if fell outside the 

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operational parameters is not 
publicly known. 

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What is publicly known is that 
it passed through. 

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The practical question this 
raises is fundamental to whether

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the blockade works as economic 
pressure on Iran. 

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If China flag vessels continue 
to transit carrying Iranian oil 

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to Chinese buyers at discounted 
rates, then the blockade is cut 

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off Iran's less important 
trading relationships while 

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leaving its most important one 
intact. 

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China takes roughly 1/3 of its 
oil through the straight and 

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peacetime. 
If that trade continues through 

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a notionally enforced American 
blockade, the blockades economic

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coercive effect on Iran is 
significantly diminished. 

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The question of who the blockade
is actually stopping and who 

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gets to pass anyway is the 
question that will define 

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whether it has the coercive 
effect trump intense. 

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China's Foreign ministry on 
Wednesday called the blockade a 

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dangerous and irresponsible act 
that will further inflamed 

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tensions in the region. 
Spokesperson Guo Jacqueline told

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reporters that the measure risks
undermining the already fragile 

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ceasefire and that only a full 
ceasefire can help ease the 

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situation in the Strait. 
He said China stands ready to 

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work with all sides to safeguard
energy security and restore 

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normal traffic. 
China's message is consistent. 

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The blockade is wrong, a 
comprehensive ceasefire is 

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necessary and China is available
as a facilitator. 

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What China is not doing is 
publicly threatening retaliation

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for its tankers transit being 
allowed or challenged. 

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Beijing is playing a careful 
game, condemning the blockade 

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publicly while it's sanctioned 
tankers continue to move through

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the straight. 
CNN published satellite imagery 

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on Wednesday showing that Iran 
has been working during the 

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ceasefire to clear debris 
blocking the entrances to its 

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underground missile bases, the 
hardened facilities, known as 

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Missile Cities Front end 
loaders, were visible scooping 

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rubble from blocked tunnel 
entrances and loading it into 

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dump trucks. 
The previous US Israeli strikes 

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had targeted those entrances to 
trap missile launchers inside, 

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preventing them from driving out
to fire or returning to reload. 

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U.S. intelligence had assessed 
that roughly half of Iran's 

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missile launchers were still 
intact after a month of 

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fighting, buried underground by 
the collapsed entrances. 

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Sam Lehr of the James Martin 
Center for Non Proliferation 

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Studies told CNN this was 
expected. 

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The ceasefire requires accepting
that your adversary will 

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reconstitute some of the 
military capacity you just spent

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time, effort and money 
destroying. 

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He added that this aligns with 
the overall concept of 

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operations for the missile 
cities, which was designed 

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around eating the first attack, 
digging out and then launching 

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again. 
That is a significant 

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intelligence assessment. 
Iran is not simply sitting idle 

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during the ceasefire. 
It is systematically working to 

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restore the military capacity 
that 47 days of US Israeli 

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bombing degraded. 
If the ceasefire expires without

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a deal and operations restart, 
the missile threat from those 

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reconstituted underground 
facilities will be materially 

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greater than it was at the point
the ceasefire was called. 

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The ceasefire, from a purely 
military standpoint, is giving 

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Iran time it is using to 
rebuild. 

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This is not a surprise to 
military analysts. 

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Every ceasefire gives both sides
time to reconstitute. 

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But the specific architecture of
Iran's missile city program, 

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designed precisely around the 
concept of surviving an initial 

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attack and then relaunching, 
means that the reconstitution 

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happening in those satellite 
images is not incidental but 

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doctrinal. 
Iran built its missile 

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infrastructure to absorb the 
kind of attack it received in 

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00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:10,320
Operation Epic Fury and to 
regenerate from it. 

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00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:13,760
The US and Israel knew that when
they launched the campaign. 

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00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:16,960
Their bet was that the political
and diplomatic pressure of the 

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campaign will produce a nuclear 
deal before Iran could rebuild 

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00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:23,160
enough to restore meaningful 
deterrence. 

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00:11:23,560 --> 00:11:27,000
That bet has not yet paid off, 
and the ceasefire is now giving 

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00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:30,520
Iran exactly the reconstitution 
time that the campaign was 

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00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:34,160
designed to deny it. 
Iran regime sources confirm the 

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dual track approach on 
Wednesday, they told 

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00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:39,360
journalists. 
We don't trust the United States

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00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:42,880
and we are also being very busy 
preparing ourselves for the next

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round of war. 
That statement, preparing for 

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00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:48,360
the next round while 
simultaneously weighing a return

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00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:52,440
to the negotiating table, is the
Iranian strategic posture in its

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most explicit form. 
It is not a contradiction. 

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It is a rational hedge by a 
government that was bombed twice

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in less than a year while in 
diplomatic contact with the 

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00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:06,440
country, doing the bombing first
in the 12 Day War of June 2025 

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and now in the 47 days of 
Operation Epic Fury. 

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00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:13,080
The International Monetary Fund 
released its World Economic 

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00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:17,080
Outlook on Wednesday, down 
grading global growth for 2026 

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00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:22,000
to 3.1%, a reduction of 0.2 
percentage points from a January

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projection. 
The IMF said the US Iran war has

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put the global economy at risk 
of being thrown off course. 

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The Fund outlined 2 darker 
scenarios in its moderate case. 

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The growth reduction is 
manageable in the most extreme 

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00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:41,480
case, oil and gas prices jumping
100 to 200% from January levels 

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00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:43,960
and remaining elevated into 
2027. 

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Global growth would fall to 2%. 
That is perilously close to what

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the IMF considers a global 
recession, and it is a scenario 

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that becomes more likely with 
every day The Strait of Hormuz 

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remains closed and the blockade 
prevents Iranian exports for 

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developing countries. 
The IMF warning is not abstract.

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the United Nations Food and 
Agriculture Organization has 

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separately noted that the Gulf 
region supplies a significant 

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00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:12,040
proportion of the world's 
ammonia and urea fertilizer 

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exports, essential inputs for 
food production in South Asia, 

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sub-Saharan Africa and parts of 
Latin America. 

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A sustained hormones closure 
does not only raise petrol 

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prices in American suburbs, it 
raises the cost of growing food 

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in countries where food 
insecurity was already a crisis 

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00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:33,320
before February 28th. 
The UN zone spokesperson said on

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00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:36,400
Tuesday that there is no 
military solution and warned 

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that instability in the Strait 
of Hormuz is worsening global 

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economic fragility. 
The Strait closure is not only 

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an energy market disruption, it 
is a fertilizer supply 

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00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:50,000
disruption, a shipping insurance
disruption and A food security 

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disruption for dozens of 
countries that had no voice in 

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00:13:52,680 --> 00:13:55,720
the decision to go to war and no
ability to protect themselves 

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from its consequences. 
Israel and Lebanon held direct 

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00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:01,640
talks in Washington on 
Wednesday, the highest level 

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00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:04,480
direct contact between the two 
countries in decades. 

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio, 
host of the Israeli and Lebanese

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00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:11,760
ambassadors. 
The talks were focused on 

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00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:15,160
halting the escalating Israel 
Hezbollah conflict and beginning

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00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:18,400
negotiations on a framework that
could eventually allow displaced

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00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:22,200
Lebanese civilians to return and
Israeli forces to withdraw from 

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00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:24,240
occupied southern Lebanese 
territory. 

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00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:27,640
At the end of the session, the 
State Department said Israel and

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00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:30,680
Lebanon agreed to hold further 
direct negotiations at a 

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00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:34,400
mutually agreed time and venue, 
a modest but real outcome from a

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00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:37,480
meeting that Hezbollah's chief 
had urged Lebanon to cancel. 

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Hezbollah was not present. 
Its leader, Naeem Kassem, had 

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00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:44,880
explicitly rejected the talks 
and told Lebanon's government 

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not to engage. 
Lebanon's government does not 

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00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:50,800
control Hezbollah. 
It cannot stop Hezbollah from 

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00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:53,560
firing rockets at Israel, 
regardless of what its 

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00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:57,480
ambassador agrees in Washington.
Any framework that emerges from 

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00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:00,600
these talks requires a separate 
enforcement mechanism that 

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00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:03,480
includes the group that is doing
the fighting, a group that has 

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00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:06,000
already said it rejects the 
entire process. 

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00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:10,000
Israel's stated goal in Lebanon 
is to disarm Hezbollah and reach

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00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:13,400
a generational peace agreement. 
Hezbollah's stated goal is to 

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continue operating as an armed 
force in Lebanon. 

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00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:19,720
Those goals are not bridgeable 
through ambassador level talks 

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00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:21,520
hosted by the US State 
Department. 

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00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:26,320
They are at best a beginning of 
a beginning for Iran. 

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00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:29,840
Even a beginning of a beginning 
on Lebanon has value. 

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00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:33,520
Any visible movement toward a 
Lebanon arrangement, even 

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00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:37,160
preliminary Israeli Lebanese 
engagement, weakens Iran score 

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00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:40,200
justification for keeping the 
Strait of Hormuz closed. 

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00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:43,800
If Lebanon is visibly moving 
toward a ceasefire framework, 

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00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:47,400
Iran can no longer argue that 
Hormuz must stay closed until 

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00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:51,200
Lebanon is resolved. 
That diplomatic linkage Lebanon 

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00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:54,800
Progress unlocks Hormuz Progress
is the chain that makes the 

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00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:57,640
Washington talks relevant to the
Islamabad process. 

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00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:01,520
Senate Democrats, led by Chuck 
Schumer, pushed again for a war 

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00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:05,080
powers vote on Wednesday. 
Schumer called the war an epic 

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00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:08,840
fail, citing rising US fuel 
prices in the absence of a 

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00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:11,920
nuclear agreement. 
Republicans continued to block 

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00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:14,080
the vote in the Senate. 
In New York. 

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00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:17,880
Police arrested approximately 90
protesters in Manhattan, among 

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00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:21,000
them whistle blower Chelsea 
Manning, actor Hari Neff and New

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00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:24,120
York City Council member Alexa 
Aviles, who were blocking 

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00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:27,560
traffic as par demonstrations 
against the war and US arms 

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00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:30,480
sales to Israel. 
The protest was organized by 

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00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:33,600
Jewish Voice for Peace, one of 
the groups that has been among 

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00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:36,840
the most consistent organizers 
of anti war demonstrations in 

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00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:38,760
the United States throughout 
this conflict. 

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00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:42,360
The arrests are a reminder that 
the domestic political cost of 

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00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:44,040
this conflict has not 
disappeared. 

305
00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:47,040
Even as the ceasefire and the 
prospect of a second round of 

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00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:49,080
talks have pushed it off the 
front page. 

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00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:53,120
The war powers question remains 
legally and constitutionally 

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00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:56,280
unresolved. 
Trump authorized Operation Epic 

309
00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:59,240
Fury without a congressional 
declaration of war. 

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00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:03,000
The blockade represents an 
ongoing act of military force 

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00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:06,400
conducted without specific 
congressional authorization. 

312
00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:09,599
Whether those legal questions 
will ever produce a binding 

313
00:17:09,599 --> 00:17:12,520
congressional constraint on the 
president's ability to act in a 

314
00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:16,079
Strait of Hormuz is, at this 
point unclear, but they are 

315
00:17:16,079 --> 00:17:19,319
accumulating as political 
pressure that will intensify if 

316
00:17:19,319 --> 00:17:23,599
the ceasefire expires and 
bombing restarts. 6 days remain 

317
00:17:23,599 --> 00:17:27,359
before April 22nd. 
The second round of talks is 

318
00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:31,000
being actively arranged. 
The blockade turned back six 

319
00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:35,400
ships on its first full day. 
A sanctioned Chinese tanker pass

320
00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:39,920
through Iran is digging out its 
missile cities, the IMF 

321
00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:43,960
downgraded the global economy, 
Israel and Lebanon met in 

322
00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:47,600
Washington, and Iran's regime 
sources said they are preparing 

323
00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:51,040
for the next round of war while 
simultaneously weighing a return

324
00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:54,200
to the negotiating table. 
Both things are happening. 

325
00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:58,280
Both are real. 
Whether diplomacy or military 

326
00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:01,200
preparation wins the next six 
days is the question this 

327
00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:03,920
conflict has been asking since 
February 28th. 

328
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:08,320
It has not yet been answered. 
Six days is an extraordinarily 

329
00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:11,160
short time to reach an agreement
between two countries that have 

330
00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:14,280
been at war for 47 days, that 
have not had a functioning 

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00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:17,640
diplomatic relationship for 47 
years, and that arrived at the 

332
00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:20,640
Islamabad talks with positions 
the negotiators themselves 

333
00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:23,680
described as far apart, not only
in substance but in style and 

334
00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:26,200
temperament. 
The specific issues that remain 

335
00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:28,960
unresolved. 
Iran's nuclear program, Hormuz 

336
00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:32,000
governance, the sanctions 
architecture, war reparations, 

337
00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:35,440
regional proxy networks and 
Lebanon are not issues that any 

338
00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,400
diplomatic team has resolved in 
six days in the history of the 

339
00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:41,480
modern Middle East. 
What 6 days can produce is a 

340
00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:43,880
framework that extends the time 
available. 

341
00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:48,600
A 45 to 60 day ceasefire 
extension, as Turkey's foreign 

342
00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:51,640
minister floated on Monday, 
would not resolve any of those 

343
00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:54,200
issues. 
It would buy the time to attempt

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00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:56,680
to resolve them. 
The difference between an 

345
00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:59,360
agreement that extends the 
ceasefire and an agreement that 

346
00:18:59,360 --> 00:19:01,760
ends the war is the difference 
between a pause and a 

347
00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:04,280
resolution. 
And right now, a pause is the 

348
00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:06,880
most that the situation can 
realistically produce. 

349
00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:10,120
If the second round of talks 
produces A ceasefire extension 

350
00:19:10,120 --> 00:19:13,360
with a commitment from Iran to 
hold Hormuz traffic steady and a

351
00:19:13,360 --> 00:19:16,000
commitment from the US to 
suspend the blockade during the 

352
00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:19,240
extension period, that would be 
a diplomatic outcome that allows

353
00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:22,520
both sides to step back from the
edge of April 22nd without 

354
00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:24,800
either side having to make the 
nuclear concessions that 

355
00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:28,080
Islamabad could not bridge. 
If this podcast is helping you 

356
00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:31,400
make sense of what is happening,
please take 30 seconds to leave 

357
00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:34,080
a review on Spotify or Apple 
Podcasts. 

358
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:37,440
It makes an enormous difference 
to how many people find the 

359
00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:40,720
shell. 
This has been episode 47 of Epic

360
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:46,920
Fury, the US Iran war podcast. 
Day 47, Six days left. 

361
00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:49,400
A second round of talks is 
coming. 

362
00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:52,600
Iran is digging out its missile 
cities. 

363
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:57,400
The blockade turned back six 
ships, a Chinese tanker pass 

364
00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:00,680
through anyway, and the 
ceasefire clock keeps counting 

365
00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:03,200
down. 
We will be back very soon.