1 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:20,200 Trump told reporters Thursday that Iran has agreed to the 2 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:23,080 framework. Iran's own media said Thursday 3 00:00:23,080 --> 00:00:26,360 that Tehran has not yet finalized its response. the 4 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:29,800 United States struck Iranian military facilities on Thursday 5 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:33,600 in response to what CENTCOM called unprovoked missile, drone 6 00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:36,920 and small boat attacks against US guided missile destroyers 7 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:40,560 transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The situation has since settled 8 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:43,120 down, according to Iranian state media. 9 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:46,960 The ceasefire for Trump's own direct statement on Thursday 10 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:50,840 remains in effect, and Trump warned regarding the prospect of 11 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:53,440 no ceasefire. You will not have to know if 12 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:56,600 there is no ceasefire. You will just have to look at 13 00:00:56,600 --> 00:01:03,120 one big glow coming out of Iran. It is Friday, May 8th, 2026, Day 14 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:08,040 70 of Operation Epic Fury. CENTCOM struck Iranian military 15 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:11,120 facilities inside Iran on Thursday afternoon. 16 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:14,960 Trump told the Oval Office press corps that Iran has agreed to 17 00:01:14,960 --> 00:01:18,040 the terms. Iranian media reported Thursday 18 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:20,800 that Tehran has not yet finalized its response. 19 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:25,160 The ceasefire is simultaneously being struck at and described as 20 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:29,120 intact and Trump's warning. One big glow is the most 21 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:32,600 explicit and visceral evocation of what the alternative to a 22 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:35,640 deal looks like, that this president is issued in 70 days 23 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:39,240 of war. This is episode 70 of Epic Fury, 24 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:43,600 the US Iran war podcast. Follow on Spotify and Apple 25 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:46,400 Podcast to stay with this story as it develops. 26 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:49,360 Let's get into it. Begin with Thursdays. 27 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:52,200 Strikes on Iranian facilities because they are the most 28 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:56,120 significant American military action inside Iranian territory 29 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:59,080 since the ceasefire was announced on April 8th, and 30 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:02,800 because their context makes Day 70 the defining paradox of this 31 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:04,480 entire conflict. St. 32 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,400 Com striking Iran on the same day Trump's as they have agreed. 33 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:10,960 CENTCOM confirmed on Thursday that U.S. forces conducted 34 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:14,480 self-defense strikes against Iranian military facilities on 35 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:17,680 May 7th after intercepting what it described as unprovoked 36 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:20,760 Iranian attacks on U.S. Navy guided missile destroyers 37 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:23,440 transiting the Strait of Hormuz toward the Gulf of Oman. 38 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:27,360 CENTCOM stated that the strikes targeted specific Iranian 39 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:31,280 military infrastructure, missile and drone launch sites, command 40 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:34,600 and control locations, and intelligence, surveillance, and 41 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:37,360 reconnaissance nodes inside Iranian territory. 42 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:41,480 The targets were, in Centcom's framing, the specific facilities 43 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:44,000 that launched the attacks on the American destroyers. 44 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:47,160 The surgical response directed at the source of the attack 45 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:49,680 rather than a broad retaliatory campaign. 46 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:53,520 The Iranian military attacked American warships transiting the 47 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,160 Strait. The American military responded 48 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:59,560 by striking the facilities that launched those attacks inside 49 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:02,720 Iranian territory. And the ceasefire, according to 50 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:05,880 Trump's own statement on Thursday, remains in effect 51 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:09,000 throughout all of it. The phrase self-defense strikes 52 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:12,080 inside a country with which the United States has a nominal 53 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:14,560 ceasefire is worth pausing on carefully. 54 00:03:14,920 --> 00:03:17,800 The April 8th ceasefire agreement halted the major 55 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:20,560 combat operations of Operation Epic Fury. 56 00:03:20,920 --> 00:03:23,920 It did not, in the administration's interpretation, 57 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:27,240 create a situation in which Iranian attacks on U.S. 58 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:30,720 Navy vessels transit the Strait without military response. 59 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:34,760 Centcom's Thursday statement is explicit. the United States 60 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:38,240 intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks and responded with 61 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:42,200 self-defense strikes. That framing self-defense is the 62 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:44,760 legal architecture the administration is using to 63 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:48,320 conduct military operations inside Iran while simultaneously 64 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:50,480 maintaining that the ceasefire is in effect. 65 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:53,320 The tension in that position is visible. 66 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:57,160 The administration's war powers argument deployed to cross the 67 00:03:57,160 --> 00:04:01,200 60 day threshold on May 1st was that the ceasefire had already 68 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:03,960 terminated the hostilities that the statute was measuring. 69 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:06,560 The ceasefire ended the hostilities. 70 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:10,280 Now, 30 days into the ceasefire, CENTCOM is conducting 71 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,680 self-defense strikes against Iranian military facilities 72 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:17,560 inside Iran in response to Iranian attacks on US warships, 73 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:20,000 transiting the same straight that the Guided Transit 74 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:23,000 operation was designed to open if the hostilities were 75 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:26,320 terminated by the ceasefire. What legal framework governs 76 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:29,080 strikes conducted under the self-defense rubric during the 77 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:31,960 ceasefire? The administration has not 78 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:33,680 publicly addressed that question. 79 00:04:34,280 --> 00:04:37,600 Its practical position appears to be the ceasefire ended the 80 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:41,480 formal offensive war, but U.S. military forces retained a right 81 00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:44,920 of self-defense against Iranian attacks at all times, and a 82 00:04:44,920 --> 00:04:47,240 self-defense strike on the facility that launched the 83 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:50,240 attack is permissible response that does not violate or 84 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:53,320 terminate the ceasefire. Whether Iran accepts that 85 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:56,400 framing that self-defense strikes during a ceasefire are 86 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:59,840 permissible and do not constitute A ceasefire violation 87 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:01,960 determines whether the ceasefire survives. 88 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:06,080 Thursday, Iranian state media's settled down response suggests 89 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:08,080 Iran is provisionally accepting it. 90 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:11,880 That response settled down rather than ceasefire violated 91 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:15,120 or war declared. Is Iran implicitly accepting, at 92 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,160 least provisionally, the same framing? 93 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:19,600 Military action occurred. It has ceased. 94 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:21,920 The ceasefire framework remains operative. 95 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:25,440 Both governments appear to be operating under a shared, if 96 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:28,760 publicly unacknowledged and legally untested, understanding 97 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:31,520 that military exchanges in the Strait can occur without 98 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:34,960 formally ending the ceasefire, as long as neither side issues a 99 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:37,480 formal declaration that the ceasefire has been broken. 100 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:41,040 Iranian state media reported after the exchange that the 101 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:45,200 situation had settled down. That formulation settled down 102 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:48,840 rather than ceasefire violated or war declared, is Iran's way 103 00:05:48,840 --> 00:05:51,600 of communicating that the immediate exchange of fire has 104 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:54,000 ceased without either side formally acknowledging a 105 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:57,440 ceasefire violation or demanding termination of the framework. 106 00:05:57,840 --> 00:06:01,160 Both governments are choosing, apparently simultaneously and 107 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:04,800 independently, to maintain the ceasefire's nominal existence 108 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:08,240 even after the most direct and confirmed exchange of fire since 109 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:11,400 it was announced 30 days ago. The ceasefire is technically 110 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:15,160 intact as a Friday morning day 70 of a conflict who's in May 111 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:17,520 now be measurable in hours rather than days. 112 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:21,600 American self-defense strikes have fallen on Iranian military 113 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:25,000 facilities inside Iran for the first time since the ceasefire 114 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:28,880 was announced on April 8th. Iran has attacked US warships 115 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:33,400 transiting the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM conducted strikes inside 116 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:36,600 Iranian territory. Iranian state media said. 117 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:39,920 It's settled down. Trump said the ceasefire remains 118 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:42,600 in effect. Those facts are simultaneously 119 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:46,160 true on Day 70 and they tell you what the ceasefire has become in 120 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:48,760 its fifth week. Not an absence of military 121 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:51,400 action between the two sides, but a framework in which 122 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:54,880 military exchanges occur and are absorbed by both parties, who 123 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,680 continue to maintain that the framework has not been formally 124 00:06:57,680 --> 00:07:00,040 dissolved. Turn out to what Trump said from 125 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:03,200 the Oval Office on Thursday afternoon because his statements 126 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:06,240 on the deal contain the most significant direct claims about 127 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:09,200 the framework status of the entire 70 day conflict. 128 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:12,880 Reporters asked Trump about the one page offer, as reported by 129 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:15,040 Axios and Reuters the previous day. 130 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:17,920 Trump pushed back on the characterization. 131 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:21,320 He said it is more than a one page offer. 132 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:24,880 It is an offer that basically said they will not have nuclear 133 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:26,480 weapons. They're going to hand us the 134 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:28,800 nuclear dust and many other things that we want. 135 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:32,560 Then reporters asked whether Iran had actually agreed to 136 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,640 those terms. Trump said they have agreed. 137 00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:39,880 Iranian media immediately and independently contradicted that 138 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:41,920 statement. Tehran had not. 139 00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:46,040 Iranian news outlets reported on Thursday finalized its response 140 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:49,600 to the US proposal, the 48 hour response window the 141 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:51,560 administration described on Wednesday. 142 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:55,400 As expected timeline did not yet produced a final formal, 143 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:58,320 publicly confirmed Iranian answer as of Thursday 144 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:01,720 afternoon's Oval Office remarks. Trump's statement, they have 145 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:04,880 agreed, is either a characterization of a partial or 146 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:07,800 verbal commitment from Iran that the American side treats as 147 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:10,120 sufficient to describe his agreement at this stage of the 148 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:13,400 process, or it is a projection of presidential confidence 149 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:16,240 intended to create momentum and accelerate the formal 150 00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:19,200 finalization of Iran's response by presenting it is already 151 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:22,640 complete, or it reflects specific intelligence or private 152 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:25,320 channel information that no public reporting has yet 153 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:28,000 confirmed. All three of those possibilities 154 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:30,360 are consistent with the available evidence. 155 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:33,919 None of them can be definitively confirmed or ruled out from 156 00:08:33,919 --> 00:08:36,799 outside The West Wing. What is not consistent with a 157 00:08:36,799 --> 00:08:41,080 completed, signed agreement is Iranian media simultaneously and 158 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:43,960 independently reporting that Tehran has not finalized its 159 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:46,320 response. The Iranian government's own 160 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:48,840 media is not reporting that Iran has agreed. 161 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:52,080 It is reporting that the response is under review. 162 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:56,280 That is a substantive factual contradiction with Trump's Oval 163 00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:58,920 Office statement. Either Trump's characterization 164 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:02,200 of the Iranian position is more advanced than Iran's own public 165 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:05,360 position acknowledges, or there is a disconnect between what the 166 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:08,760 private channel has communicated and what Iran's public and media 167 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:12,240 apparatus has been told to say. Or Trump is describing something 168 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:14,480 as agreement that Iran would describe as continuing 169 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:17,720 deliberation. 2 things are simultaneously true. 170 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:20,720 On Thursday. Trump says they have agreed, and 171 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:23,120 Iran says the response is not yet final. 172 00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:26,800 The distance between those two statements is the specific 173 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:28,880 distance the deal has yet to close. 174 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:32,520 It may be measured in hours, it may be days. 175 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:35,800 Trump's confident claim that they have agreed if it reflects 176 00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:39,080 genuine intelligence from the private track, the one only he 177 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:42,160 and a handful of others understand about Iran's actual 178 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:45,440 internal direction, suggests the formal remaining distance is 179 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,560 measurably small. The CENTCOM strikes on Iranian 180 00:09:48,560 --> 00:09:51,760 facilities that happened on the same day, and the fact that the 181 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:55,160 ceasefire is still nominally in force after them suggests the 182 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:58,080 pressure on Iran to finalize a response is now operating 183 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:00,800 simultaneously from the diplomatic and the military 184 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:02,840 direction. Trump's warning about the 185 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:06,400 alternative to a deal is the most explicit and visceral 186 00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:10,440 escalation formulation of the entire 70 Day War, he told 187 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:13,240 reporters on Thursday. You will not have to know if 188 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:16,560 there is no ceasefire. You will just have to look at 189 00:10:16,560 --> 00:10:21,760 one big glow coming out of Iran. That phrase, one big glow is not 190 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:24,000 the language of conventional military planning. 191 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:28,480 Conventional military operations produce fires, explosions, 192 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:32,120 smoke, damage assessments and casualty reports from specific 193 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:34,640 sites. They do not produce a single 194 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:38,240 visible glow from a distance. The phrase invokes the imagery 195 00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:41,280 of something so large and concentrated that it is visible 196 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:44,200 as a single luminescent event kind of strike that would 197 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:47,440 destroy not a missile site or a command post, but something much 198 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:51,080 larger in the context of a conflict over Iran's nuclear 199 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:53,360 program. On a day when CENTCOM has 200 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:56,560 already conducted strikes inside Iran, the phrase carries a 201 00:10:56,560 --> 00:10:59,360 specific weight that is difficult to dismiss as mere 202 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:01,720 rhetoric. Whether Trump is describing a 203 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:04,680 massive conventional strike, the kind of infrastructure 204 00:11:04,680 --> 00:11:07,800 bombardment he threatened in early April, targeting power 205 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:11,240 plants, bridges and energy facilities, or something more 206 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:13,600 extreme is not clear from the phrase alone. 207 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:17,840 What is clear is the function is Trump using the most dramatic 208 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:20,880 imaginable formulation of what the alternative to the deal 209 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:24,000 looks like to make the deal Iran has not yet finalized feel 210 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:27,160 urgently necessary. The one big glow is Trump's 211 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:29,840 description of the consequence of continued non agreement 212 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:33,440 delivered from the Oval Office on the same day U.S. forces 213 00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:36,720 struck Iranian military facilities and the ceasefire was 214 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:39,680 declared intact. Paired with Trump's simultaneous 215 00:11:39,680 --> 00:11:42,800 claim that Iran has agreed, the big Glow warning creates a 216 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:45,200 specific diplomatic pressure architecture. 217 00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:48,320 We believe you have agreed to the terms, and if we are wrong 218 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:51,320 about that, here is the specific consequence that follows. 219 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:54,680 That combination of apparent confirmation and existential 220 00:11:54,680 --> 00:11:57,680 threat is designed to make the remaining distance between where 221 00:11:57,680 --> 00:12:01,200 Iran formally is and where Trump says Iran has already arrived 222 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:03,760 feel both small and critically urgent to close. 223 00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:06,880 Before the glow becomes the answer, the structure of 224 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:10,120 Thursday is worth examining as a complete sequence. 225 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:13,320 Iran fires on US destroyers in the Strait. 226 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:17,840 CENTCOM strikes Iranian military facilities in self-defense. 227 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:21,240 The situation settles down, per Iranian state media. 228 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,360 Trump says Iran has agreed to the framework. 229 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:29,000 Iranian media says Tehran has not yet finalized its response. 230 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:32,840 Trump warns of one big glow if there is no ceasefire. 231 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:36,880 And the ceasefire, per Trump, remains in effect throughout all 232 00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:39,280 of it. That compressed sequence attack, 233 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:43,240 counter strike, settlement agreement, claim, qualification, 234 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:47,280 existential threat, ceasefire intact describes a single 235 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:49,920 Thursday that cannot have existed in any previous 236 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:53,320 diplomatic or military framework in recent American history. 237 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:56,760 The framework document being negotiated, the one Trump says 238 00:12:56,760 --> 00:13:00,000 is more than one page and that includes Iran not having nuclear 239 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:03,240 weapons and handing over what he called the nuclear dust, remains 240 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:06,440 as of this Friday morning, the subject of Iranian internal 241 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:09,080 review. The key outstanding questions as 242 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:12,760 publicly reported are these. The enrichment moratorium 243 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:16,320 duration. Iran proposed five years, the 244 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:20,640 United States demanded 20 years. The reported likely landing 245 00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:25,080 point is 12 to 15 years. That gap has not been publicly 246 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:28,600 confirmed as closed. The disposition of Iran's highly 247 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:33,440 enriched uranium stockpile approximately 408kg of uranium 248 00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:37,280 enriched to 60% purity. Whether that material goes to 249 00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:40,400 the United States, to Russia under the Putin custody offer, 250 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:43,160 or to another third party has not been confirmed. 251 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:46,400 Trump's statement that Iran will hand us the nuclear dust 252 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:49,960 suggests the US destination is the working assumption, but this 253 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:51,640 has not been officially confirmed. 254 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:55,240 The underground nuclear facility prohibition, including the 255 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:58,800 Fordow enrichment site, buried under a mountain and calm, which 256 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:01,920 the framework would require Iran to commit not to operate. 257 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:05,120 Whether that commitment satisfies US verification 258 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:08,720 requirements, given Fordow's history of being built covertly 259 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:12,240 and operated in ways that evaded timely international detection, 260 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:15,200 remains an open technical and verification question. 261 00:14:15,680 --> 00:14:18,720 The SNAP inspection regime allowing UN inspectors to 262 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:22,080 conduct unannounced visits to undeclared sites, which would 263 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:25,160 close the verification gap that allowed Iran to advance its 264 00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:27,600 program for years without timely detection. 265 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:30,560 In the Lebanon clause, the provision that would formally 266 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:34,040 declare the war ended throughout the region, explicitly including 267 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:37,640 Lebanon, marking the first explicit US Iran framework 268 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:40,280 acknowledgment that the Lebanon conflict is part of the same 269 00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:42,680 war. Each of those questions requires 270 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:45,480 a formal Iranian governmental authorization. 271 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:49,440 The civilian diplomatic track Arachi Galabaf and the 272 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:52,120 parliamentary majority that signed its support statement in 273 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:55,200 late April cannot formally commit without common as 274 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:57,480 explicit and authoritative direction. 275 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:01,120 That direction as a Friday morning has not been publicly 276 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:04,040 confirmed through any Iranian official channel. 277 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:07,560 Trump's claim that they have agreed remains as yet 278 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:10,760 unconfirmed by any Iranian government source. 279 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:14,080 Trump's push back on the one page characterization, it is 280 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:17,520 more than a one page offer, is also his way of signaling to 281 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:21,120 Iran, to Israel, and to the American public that the deal is 282 00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:24,080 more substantive than the preliminary framework document 283 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:27,280 the Axios reporting described. The Axios reporting 284 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:30,560 characterized the document as a one page memorandum that would 285 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:34,560 establish A framework and launch 30 days of detail negotiations. 286 00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:38,320 Trump is describing something he regards as containing specific 287 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:41,360 substantive commitments. No nuclear weapons, nuclear 288 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:45,240 material handed over, many other things we want rather than just 289 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:48,560 a procedural entry point. Whether the document has grown 290 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:51,680 in scope and detail since Wednesday's Axios and Reuters 291 00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:54,280 reporting, or whether Trump is describing the broader 292 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:57,520 negotiating package rather than the specific document currently 293 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:01,080 on Iran's table for review, is not clear from his Thursday Oval 294 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:03,720 Office remarks. The gap between A1 page 295 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:06,720 procedural framework that launches 30 days of talks in a 296 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:09,880 document that already contains the core substantive commitments 297 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:12,920 is a gap that matters enormously for how quickly an agreement 298 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:14,960 could be announced and what form it takes. 299 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:18,800 If it is the procedural framework, 30 days of detailed 300 00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:22,560 negotiations remain before any substantive agreement exists. 301 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:25,920 If it is the substantive commitment document, the deal is 302 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:29,240 substantially complete and awaits only Iran's formal 303 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:32,120 authorization, which Trump says has already happened. 304 00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:36,160 The CENTCOM strikes on Iranian military facilities on Thursday 305 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:39,280 are significant not only for their military dimension, but 306 00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:41,640 for what they reveal about the operational state of the 307 00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:44,680 ceasefire and the continued status of the Hormuz guided 308 00:16:44,680 --> 00:16:47,440 transit that Trump announced paused on Tuesday evening. 309 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:49,800 The CENTCOM statement is specific. 310 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:52,160 U.S. Navy guided missile destroyers 311 00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:55,040 were transiting the Strait of Hormuz toward the Gulf of Oman 312 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:57,240 on May 7th when they came under attack. 313 00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:01,040 Trump paused the guided transit on Tuesday night, citing the 314 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:04,119 request of Pakistan and other countries in great progress 315 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,040 toward a complete and final agreement. 316 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:10,000 The transit was described as paused, not cancelled, not 317 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:13,319 permanently suspended, but paused to allow diplomacy to 318 00:17:13,319 --> 00:17:15,599 proceed. Guided missile destroyers in the 319 00:17:15,599 --> 00:17:18,920 Strait on Thursday under Iranian attacks suggest that either the 320 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:22,079 pause ended or the destroyers were completing a transit that 321 00:17:22,079 --> 00:17:25,240 had already been authorized before the pause or the straight 322 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:28,079 passage was a separate naval movement not characterized as 323 00:17:28,079 --> 00:17:29,800 part of the guided transit operation. 324 00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:33,400 CENTCOM statement does not resolve which of those applies. 325 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:37,040 What it establishes beyond doubt is that American naval vessels 326 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:40,120 are still in the Strait of Hormuz, still transiting it 327 00:17:40,120 --> 00:17:43,160 under Iranian military opposition, and that the US 328 00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:46,960 military is now conducting strikes inside Iranian territory 329 00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:50,200 in response to the attacks. Those vessels received the core 330 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:51,960 operational dynamic in the Strait. 331 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:57,480 US ships transit, IRGC attacks, CENTCOM responds with strikes on 332 00:17:57,480 --> 00:18:00,280 Iranian facilities has not fundamentally changed since 333 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:02,360 Monday morning's guided transit launch. 334 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:05,400 The pause, at least in operational terms, as CENTCOM 335 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,040 Thursday statement reveals, appears to have been more 336 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:11,160 diplomatic framing than a substantive change in US naval 337 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:13,040 activity in the Strait of Hormuz. 338 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:16,280 American military power is continuing to assert 339 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:19,360 navigational rights in the straight through naval presence 340 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,800 and force of response. Iran continues to contest those 341 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,840 rights through the Irgc's operational presence and 342 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:28,720 willingness to fire. Both governments continue to 343 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:32,240 call the ceasefire intact. And somewhere in the gap between 344 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:35,440 that military confrontation and the diplomatic claim of Iranian 345 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,640 agreement, the deal is either being finalized or is not yet 346 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:41,360 finalized, depending on which government you're listening to. 347 00:18:41,360 --> 00:18:46,400 On Thursday, Day 70, the United States conducted self-defense 348 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:50,080 strikes on Iranian military facilities inside Iranian 349 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:52,720 territory. The ceasefire holds in the 350 00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:56,160 administration's framing in the absence of either side formally 351 00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:58,920 declaring it over and in the continued operation of the 352 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:02,920 Pakistan Proposal channel. Trump says Iran has agreed to 353 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:06,920 the nuclear framework. Iran says the response is not 354 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:10,160 yet finalized. Trump warned of one big glow. 355 00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:13,320 If there is no deal, the self-defense strikes, the 356 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:17,120 agreement claim, the Iranian qualification, the existential 357 00:19:17,120 --> 00:19:20,400 threat and the intact ceasefire all happened on the same 358 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:23,760 Thursday. The most consequential 72 hours 359 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:27,440 of the war are not yet over. The answer to whether the deal 360 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:31,040 exists, whether Iran has already agreed in the precise way Trump 361 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:34,520 describes or is still formally deliberating in the way its own 362 00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:37,280 media reports, is not yet publicly confirmed. 363 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:41,760 But it is demonstrably closer to resolution and simultaneously 364 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:45,400 closer to the alternative than at any moment in 70 days. 365 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,520 If this podcast is helping you make sense of what's happening, 366 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:52,320 take 2 seconds to leave a five star rating on Spotify or Apple 367 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:55,160 Podcasts. It makes a huge difference to 368 00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:58,000 how many people find the show. And if you want the deeper 369 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:00,800 breakdown of what's really going on and where this is heading, 370 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,440 you can unlock the premium episodes directly in Spotify or 371 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:08,200 Apple Podcasts. This has been episode 70 of Epic 372 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:13,600 Fury. the US Iran war podcast CENTCOM struck Iranian military 373 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:17,320 facilities inside Iran on Thursday in self-defense. 374 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:21,080 The ceasefire holds Trump. They have agreed. 375 00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:26,000 Iran not yet finalized Trump. One big glow. 376 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:31,000 If there is no deal, 70 days of war, a deal that is by Trump's 377 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:34,720 account already agreed. They have agreed, by Iran's 378 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:38,520 account not yet formally finalized, by the ceasefire's 379 00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:42,720 account, somehow still intact despite CENTCOM strikes and IRGC 380 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:46,520 attacks on the same day. We will be back very soon 381 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,680 because the next episode may be the one in which the answer 382 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:50,800 finally arrives.