1 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:20,480 Lebanon has a ceasefire and that changes everything for Iran. 2 00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:24,440 And for the five days remaining before the Iran US ceasefire 3 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:28,840 itself expires on April 22nd, Trump announced on Thursday that 4 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:32,960 Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10 day ceasefire effective 5 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:35,480 5:00 in the afternoon Eastern Time on Thursday. 6 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:39,040 In a Truth Social post, he wrote that Israel's Prime Minister 7 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:42,160 Netanyahu and Lebanon's President on had agreed that in 8 00:00:42,160 --> 00:00:45,000 order to achieve peace between their countries, they will begin 9 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:48,240 a 10 day ceasefire. He then said something that no 10 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:50,920 one had heard him say about this war in 49 days. 11 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:53,800 He said he might go to Pakistan himself if there was a peace 12 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:58,840 deal with Iran to sign. It is Friday April 17th, 2026, 13 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:04,239 day 49 of Operation Epic Fury. The Lebanon ceasefire is active. 14 00:01:04,599 --> 00:01:07,520 Crowds were celebrating in the streets of Beirut as tracer 15 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:10,920 rounds from celebratory gunfire lit up the night sky over the 16 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:13,920 city. The Iran ceasefire has five days 17 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:16,000 left. The second round of talks is 18 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:18,400 being arranged. As a direct consequence of what 19 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:20,960 happened today. Trump said he might go to 20 00:01:20,960 --> 00:01:25,440 Pakistan himself, and the war that began 49 days ago may be 21 00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:29,120 approaching its final diplomatic chapter or the most dangerous 22 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:34,080 five days it has yet produced. This is episode 49 of Epic Fury, 23 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:38,440 the US Iran War podcast. Follow on Spotify and Apple 24 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:41,240 podcast to stay with this story as it develops. 25 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:44,520 Let's get into it. Begin with why the Lebanon 26 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:47,880 ceasefire matters so profoundly for the Iran negotiation, 27 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:51,000 because the 2 tracks are officially separate and have 28 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:53,680 been strategically inseparable since the first day of the 29 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,200 ceasefire. Iran has consistently 30 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:59,440 conditioned further talks with the United States on a ceasefire 31 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:01,680 in Lebanon. Tehran's argument, stated 32 00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:05,400 repeatedly by Iraqi, by Galibaf, and by Iranian state media 33 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:08,160 throughout the ceasefire, is that Israel's continued 34 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:10,880 bombardment of Lebanon constitutes a violation of the 35 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:14,360 broader ceasefire framework and that Iran cannot negotiate a 36 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:17,080 permanent settlement with the United States while its closest 37 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:20,080 regional ally is being destroyed by the country that the United 38 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:22,880 States is allied with. The Trump administration in 39 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:26,440 Israel rejected that linkage publicly at every turn. 40 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:30,280 The ceasefire with Iran, they said, did not cover Lebanon. 41 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:33,560 But the urgency with which the White House worked over the past 42 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:37,400 48 hours to produce a Lebanon ceasefire before his second 43 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:40,480 round of Iran talks is scheduled tells the real story. 44 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:44,800 The Lebanon ceasefire is not incidental to the Iran process. 45 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:48,680 It is its precondition and Trump delivered it. 46 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:52,680 The mechanics of how the Lebanon ceasefire came together are as 47 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:56,880 revealing as the outcome itself. Secretary of State Marco Rubio 48 00:02:57,240 --> 00:03:01,040 hosted the rare meeting between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors 49 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:04,080 on Tuesday, the 1st direct engagement between the two 50 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:07,280 countries in decades. At that meeting, Lebanon's 51 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:10,320 ambassador acknowledged that Hezbollah is a mutual problem 52 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:14,240 for both Israel and Lebanon. That was a significant statement 53 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:16,520 from a Lebanese government official on the record. 54 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:20,000 It gave both sides a shared characterization of the problem 55 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:22,360 that neither had publicly agreed to before. 56 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:25,960 After that meeting, Trump got Netanyahu on the phone Wednesday 57 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:29,120 evening and pressed him to accept a ceasefire under certain 58 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:32,000 terms. Netanyahu gave his agreement in 59 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:34,920 principle. Then Rubio reached Lebanon's 60 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:37,880 president own overnight and secured his commitment. 61 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:41,520 On Thursday morning, Trump called own directly, the first 62 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:44,400 time Trump had spoken with a Lebanese president since he took 63 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:47,560 office, and then called Netanyahu again to finalize. 64 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:51,920 Shortly after those calls, Trump announced the ceasefire deal on 65 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:54,480 Truth Social. The speed and manner of the 66 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:57,920 Lebanon ceasefire announcement is worth examining because it 67 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:00,560 reveals something important about Trump's negotiating 68 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:03,080 method. Netanyahu had been refusing a 69 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:07,120 Lebanon ceasefire for weeks. His position that Lebanon is a 70 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:09,960 separate conflict, that Hezbollah must be destroyed, 71 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:13,160 that Israel has the right to continue its campaign regardless 72 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:16,720 of the Iran ceasefire, was stated so consistently and so 73 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:20,240 publicly that a reversal seemed politically impossible without 74 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:23,920 Netanyahu losing face with his own cabinet and his own security 75 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:26,760 establishment. Trump solved that problem by not 76 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:28,880 giving Netanyahu time to deliberate. 77 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:32,960 He called Netanyahu on Wednesday evening and asked him to agree 78 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:36,240 in principle. Netanyahu agreed on the phone. 79 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:40,320 Then Rubio called the own. Overnight, Trump called own. 80 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:43,520 In the morning, Trump called Netanyahu again. 81 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:47,560 And then Trump announced the ceasefire on Truth Social before 82 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:50,600 Netanyahu's Security Cabinet had been properly briefed. 83 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:53,960 By the time Netanyahu's ministers got on an emergency 84 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:57,040 conference call to discuss the ceasefire, Trump had already 85 00:04:57,040 --> 00:04:59,720 posted it. The Cabinet voted on a fade 86 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:02,480 accompli. This is Trump's characteristic 87 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:05,640 approach to difficult allies move faster than they can 88 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:09,080 object, present the outcome as already agreed, and leave them 89 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:11,160 to ratify what has already been announced. 90 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:14,720 It worked with Netanyahu on Thursday the same way it has 91 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:17,080 worked with other leaders throughout Trump's political 92 00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:19,760 career. Netanyahu's security Cabinet, 93 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:22,960 which under Israeli law must formally approve military 94 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:26,640 decisions, was caught off guard. Ministers heard about Trump's 95 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:29,640 announcement several minutes into an urgent conference call, 96 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:34,040 before any serious discussion had started, a senior Israeli 97 00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:37,440 official told Axios. Trump pushed the ceasefire 98 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:39,920 through. That is a telling phrase. 99 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:43,440 Netanyahu has been the principal obstacle to any Lebanon 100 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:46,880 ceasefire throughout the war, insisting that Israel's campaign 101 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:49,960 against Hezbollah is separate from the Iran conflict and 102 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:52,640 cannot be constrained by diplomatic considerations about 103 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:56,440 Iran's negotiating comfort. Trump overrode that position. 104 00:05:57,120 --> 00:06:00,200 He used his leverage over Netanyahu, the military and 105 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:03,400 diplomatic support that Israel depends on, to extract the 10 106 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:07,120 day ceasefire that his Iran negotiators urgently needed. the 107 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:11,000 US Israel relationship produced the outcome, but it produced it 108 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:14,120 by applying pressure that Netanyahu had been resisting for 109 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:16,880 weeks. The ceasefire terms are precise 110 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:18,840 and their limitations are significant. 111 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:22,760 Israel agreed to a 10 day pause and act of operations. 112 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:27,040 Israel explicitly did not agree to withdraw its troops from 113 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:30,000 southern Lebanon. Netanyahu stated clearly that 114 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:33,120 Israel will keep its forces in the Six Mile buffer zone it is 115 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:35,560 occupied and that he would react if threatened. 116 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:39,320 The IDF spokesperson emphasized that the military is fully 117 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:42,480 prepared to attack again in a powerful manner, quickly if 118 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:45,600 necessary. Trump invited both Netanyahu and 119 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,480 Lebanese President Own to the White House for direct peace 120 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:52,080 talks, a significant escalation of diplomatic ambition from a 121 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:55,480 president who just days ago was saying he did not care whether a 122 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:58,160 deal happened. Municipal leaders in northern 123 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:00,840 Israel who have lived under Hezbollah rocket fire for 124 00:07:00,840 --> 00:07:04,400 months, expressed outrage at being informed of the ceasefire 125 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:07,920 from the media rather than from their own government. 1 council 126 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:10,680 head said residents of the north feel betrayed. 127 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:14,080 Once again he made a direct appeal to Netanyahu. 128 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:17,320 Your basic duty as Prime Minister is to provide security 129 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:20,520 to the citizens of the state. Those are powerful words from 130 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:24,160 within Netanyahu's own political constituency, a reminder that 131 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:27,280 the domestic political cost of any Lebanon arrangement that 132 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:30,720 leaves Hezbollah armed and capable is enormous, regardless 133 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:34,320 of how the diplomacy is framed. In Washington, Northern Israel 134 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:37,040 has been absorbing rocket fire since late February. 135 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:40,280 Its residents are not interested in a 10 day pause. 136 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:44,760 They want a permanent solution. Whether this 10 day ceasefire is 137 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:48,200 a first step toward one or another temporary arrangement 138 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:51,440 that fractures within weeks is what the next 10 days will 139 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:54,400 determine. Hezbollah did not agree to the 140 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:57,200 ceasefire. The Lebanese government agreed 141 00:07:57,200 --> 00:08:00,760 on Hezbollah's behalf, as it has done in previous ceasefire 142 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:03,160 arrangements. The group issued a statement 143 00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:06,320 saying the Lebanese people have the right to resist Israeli 144 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:09,760 forces in the country, language that is deliberately ambiguous 145 00:08:09,760 --> 00:08:12,800 about whether Hezbollah's military wing considers itself 146 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:14,920 bound by the Lebanese government's commitments. 147 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:17,720 That ambiguity is not accidental. 148 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,680 Hezbollah operates as a state within a state in Lebanon. 149 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:24,800 Its military chain of command does not run through the 150 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:27,480 Lebanese presidency or the Lebanese army. 151 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:30,720 When the Lebanese government commits to prevent attacks by 152 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:34,320 non state armed groups, it is making a commitment it cannot 153 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:37,440 fully enforce. Both Israel and the United 154 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:40,320 States know this. They accepted the commitment 155 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:44,240 anyway because the diplomatic architecture of the Iran process 156 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:47,160 required it. Israel agreed to a previous 157 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:52,080 Lebanese ceasefire in late 2024. The UN Interim Force in Lebanon 158 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:55,280 recorded more than 10,000 violations of that agreement, 159 00:08:55,560 --> 00:08:58,960 the overwhelming majority attributed to Israeli forces. 160 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,600 The pattern of Lebanon ceasefire agreements producing paper 161 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:05,560 commitments that fragment under the operational pressures on the 162 00:09:05,560 --> 00:09:10,360 ground is not theoretical. It is documented in recent the 163 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,000 question is not whether this ceasefire will hold 164 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:15,520 indefinitely. The question is whether it will 165 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:19,440 hold for five days the remaining window of the Iran ceasefire. 166 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:23,080 Five days of reduced Israeli strikes in Lebanon is long 167 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:26,360 enough to let Iran's delegation board a flight to Islamabad 168 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:29,600 without the immediate political pressure of having to publicly 169 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:32,200 condemn fresh Lebanese casualties on the way there. 170 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:35,360 It is long enough for the back channel to produce a second 171 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:39,120 round date is long enough, just barely, to serve as the 172 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:42,200 diplomatic bridge that connects the Lebanon ceasefire to the 173 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:45,400 Iran deal is the narrowest bridge in this entire 174 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:48,920 negotiation, and it will be tested by every rocket, every 175 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:52,600 drone, and every Israeli strike that occurs in southern Lebanon 176 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:56,360 over the next 120 hours. Whether Hezbollah fires a rocket 177 00:09:56,360 --> 00:10:00,360 in the next 5 days and whether Israel responds to it is the 178 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:03,720 operational variable that could collapse the entire diplomatic 179 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:05,680 sequence. Trump said something 180 00:10:05,680 --> 00:10:08,520 extraordinary at a press conference on Thursday. 181 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:12,040 He said Iran has agreed to give back the nuclear dust that is 182 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:14,880 way underground because of the attacks made with the B2 183 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:18,000 bombers. That is a significant claim, and 184 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:20,520 it is the most specific statement Trump has made about 185 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:23,360 the state of the nuclear negotiations since the ceasefire 186 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:25,600 began. To understand what it means, 187 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:28,120 consider what the nuclear dust refers to. 188 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:31,680 B2 Spirit stealth bombers carrying bunker busting 189 00:10:31,680 --> 00:10:35,440 munitions struck Iran's hardened underground nuclear facilities 190 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:38,800 at for Dow, Natan's and other sites during Operation Epic 191 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:40,840 Fury. The strikes were designed to 192 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:44,480 collapse tunnel entrances and trap or destroy the enrichment 193 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:47,080 cascades and uranium stockpiles inside. 194 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:50,080 Intelligence assessments have consistently stated that the 195 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:53,120 strikes degraded but did not fully destroy the facilities, 196 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:56,360 and that significant quantities of highly enriched uranium, 197 00:10:56,640 --> 00:11:00,760 estimated at over 400 kilograms, sufficient for multiple nuclear 198 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:04,400 warheads, remain buried underground, either in surviving 199 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:06,800 chambers or in rubble from collapsed tunnels. 200 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:10,040 The White House had listed the retrieval of this material as a 201 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:13,680 non negotiable demand. Iran had previously rejected 202 00:11:13,680 --> 00:11:16,400 that demand. If Trump's statement is accurate 203 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:19,880 that Iran has now agreed to surrender that material, it 204 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:23,480 represents the single largest Iranian concession of the entire 205 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:26,360 negotiating process. It would directly address the 206 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:29,240 White House score demand and remove the most dangerous 207 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:32,480 element of Iran's nuclear program from Iranian control. 208 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:36,160 It is also notably a claim Trump made without supporting 209 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:39,720 documentation, without an Iranian counter statement and 210 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:42,480 without verification from any independent source. 211 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:46,080 Iran's foreign ministry had not confirmed the claim as of 212 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:48,960 Thursday evening. The statement may reflect 213 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:51,680 genuine progress from Munir's Tehran visit. 214 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:55,200 It may also reflect Trump's characteristic tendency to 215 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:57,840 announce outcomes before they are formally agreed. 216 00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:00,280 The distinction matters enormously. 217 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:03,840 But the direction of travel, Trump volunteering positive 218 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:08,160 details about the nuclear talks publicly to the press, is itself 219 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:10,760 a signal that the back channel is producing something. 220 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:14,360 A president who said he does not care whether a deal happens, who 221 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:18,160 said whatever and will reset, is now saying he might personally 222 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:21,680 fly to Pakistan to sign one. That is one of the sharpest 223 00:12:21,680 --> 00:12:25,720 reversals of posture in the entire 49 days of this conflict. 224 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:29,400 It places Trump personally in the diplomatic frame in a way 225 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:31,480 that raises the stakes for both sides. 226 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:35,800 If Trump flies to Islamabad and there is no deal, it is a 227 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:39,000 personal presidential failure in a way that sending Vance was 228 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:41,480 not. That calculus may be why Trump 229 00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:44,440 is saying it because it creates pressure on Iran to produce 230 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:47,640 something signable knowing that a Trump visit requires a Trump 231 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:49,880 level outcome. What is confirmed from the 232 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:53,800 Iranian side is that Iraqi told reporters on Thursday that Iran 233 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:57,120 received a message from Pakistan following Munir's visit to 234 00:12:57,120 --> 00:13:00,560 Tehran and that Iran is studying the message carefully. 235 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:03,800 That is the precise language of a government that has received 236 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:07,000 the concrete proposal and is taking it through its internal 237 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:10,400 authorization process. It is not a rejection. 238 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:15,120 It is not an acceptance. It is the specific diplomatic 239 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:17,280 signal of a process still in motion. 240 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:21,600 The five days between now and April 22nd are the window inside 241 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:23,760 which that process must produce a result. 242 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:27,360 Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stood at a Pentagon press 243 00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:30,760 briefing alongside General Dan Kane, Chairman of the Joint 244 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:33,880 Chiefs, on Thursday afternoon and delivered a statement that 245 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:36,280 sat in direct tension with Trump's optimism. 246 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:40,440 He said the US naval blockade of Iranian ports will last for as 247 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:43,600 long as it takes. He said the US military is 248 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:47,160 prepared to continue attacks in Iran if a long term ceasefire 249 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:50,640 deal is not reached soon. Those two statements, the 250 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:53,880 blockade for as long as it takes and prepared to attack again, 251 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:56,840 are the military pressure track running in parallel with the 252 00:13:56,840 --> 00:14:00,520 diplomatic optimism track. The administration is speaking 253 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:04,560 in two registers simultaneously into two different audiences. 254 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:08,200 Trump's register is directed at the markets, at the American 255 00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:11,280 public, at Iran's pragmatists and at the international 256 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:13,200 community. A deal is coming. 257 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:16,040 This is almost over. Something amazing is ahead. 258 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:19,840 Heksetha's register is directed at Iran's hardliners, at the 259 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:23,320 IRGC, at any Iranian official who might mistake Trump's 260 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:26,240 optimism for weakness. The military instrument has not 261 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:28,600 been put away. The blockade is permanent until 262 00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:32,280 a deal is done and the capacity to attack again is intact and 263 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:34,880 ready. Both messages are factually 264 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:37,800 true. Both are entirely deliberate. 265 00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:41,400 The administration is managing the end game of a war with the 266 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:44,120 same dual register strategy used to start it. 267 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:48,000 Maximum optimism and maximum threat delivered simultaneously, 268 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:50,760 leaving Iran to decide which register to believe. 269 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:54,280 House Republicans blocked the latest War Powers Resolution on 270 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:59,760 Thursday by a margin of 213 to 214, the narrowest margin yet of 271 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:02,240 the four war powers votes since the war began. 272 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:06,240 The sole Republican to vote for the measure was Thomas Massie of 273 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:08,640 Kentucky. The sole Democrat to vote 274 00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:11,080 against it was Jared Golden of Maine. 275 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:14,840 Representative Warren Davidson of Ohio voted present. 276 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:18,440 The result was decided by a single vote, and that single 277 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:21,800 vote tells a story about the political sustainability of this 278 00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:25,400 conflict continuation. The War Powers Resolutions have 279 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:28,960 consistently failed since February 28th, but each 280 00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:31,920 successive vote has produced a result that requires more 281 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:34,680 careful arithmetic from the White House's congressional 282 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,640 affairs team. In February, the margins were 283 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:40,680 comfortable. In March, they tightened. 284 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:44,920 On Thursday, one vote separated the administration's legal 285 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:47,840 authority to continue the campaign from a resolution that 286 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:50,760 would have required it to seek congressional approval for any 287 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:54,040 further military action. If the ceasefire expires on 288 00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:57,840 April 22nd without a deal and bombing restarts, the 289 00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:01,720 administration will face 1/5 war powers vote with A1 vote cushion 290 00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:04,160 from the 4th. That is an uncomfortable 291 00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:06,960 political position for an administration that needs to 292 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:09,480 project unambiguous resolve to Iran. 293 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,480 Whether that one vote margin holds under the pressure of 294 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:15,440 renewed conflict is the congressional question. 295 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:19,560 The next 5 days will sharpen. The Lebanon ceasefire did not 296 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:21,960 soften Trump's posture on every front. 297 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:25,880 Trump escalated his personal dispute with Pope Leo the 14th 298 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:29,400 on Thursday as well, directly defending the war to the pontiff 299 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:33,080 in the starkest terms he has yet used, he told reporters. 300 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:37,160 It is very important that the Pope understands, very, very 301 00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:39,840 important. It would be nice not to say it. 302 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:44,200 Iran killed 42,000 people who were totally unarmed. 303 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:48,400 They were protesters. Iran cannot have a nuclear 304 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:51,400 weapon. If they did, every country, 305 00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:54,920 including Italy, where he is stationed, every single country 306 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:57,440 in the world would be in trouble, he said. 307 00:16:57,440 --> 00:17:00,080 The blockade is amazing, he said. 308 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,920 We are doing very well with respect to the whole situation 309 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:06,200 on Iran, that this is a real world problem requiring real 310 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:09,119 world solutions. The Pope was on a pastoral visit 311 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:12,400 to Africa on Thursday, a continent whose fuel, security, 312 00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:15,440 food prices and development trajectories are all being 313 00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:18,319 affected by the hormones closure, and did not respond 314 00:17:18,319 --> 00:17:22,000 directly to Trump's comments. The ongoing Pope Trump conflict 315 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:25,280 is a measure of how this war has broken out of its regional frame 316 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:28,040 and entered every global discourse simultaneously 317 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:31,680 geopolitical, moral, theological and diplomatic. 318 00:17:32,120 --> 00:17:35,200 A war that started as AUS Israeli military campaign 319 00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:38,600 against Iran's nuclear program is now a subject of disagreement 320 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:41,240 between the President of the United States and the leader of 321 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:44,680 the world's largest religion being conducted on social media. 322 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:47,680 While the two parties negotiators study a Pakistani 323 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:51,600 diplomatic message in Tehran. The Lebanon ceasefire transforms 324 00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:55,000 the international landscape of the Iran diplomacy in ways that 325 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:57,760 go beyond the bilateral US Iran dynamic. 326 00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:01,360 Russia's Lavrov had said repeatedly that Moscow believes 327 00:18:01,360 --> 00:18:03,600 the Iran ceasefire must cover Lebanon. 328 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:07,560 France's Macron had said Lebanon must be included in a broader 329 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:10,920 ceasefire framework. The UK had publicly tied its 330 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:14,000 refusal to support the naval blockade to the need for a 331 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:15,840 comprehensive regional settlement. 332 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:19,520 Each of those positions can now be squared with a new reality. 333 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:24,040 Lebanon has a ceasefire. The Iran ceasefire still has 334 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:26,600 five days. The second round is being 335 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:29,840 arranged for the European powers and for Russia. 336 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:33,520 The Lebanon development removes a major objection to supporting 337 00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:37,640 the diplomatic process for the Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, the 338 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:41,440 UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, all of which have been absorbing 339 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:45,120 Iranian attacks for 49 days. The Lebanon ceasefire is the 340 00:18:45,120 --> 00:18:47,760 first indication that the regional security framework 341 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:50,720 being assembled around the Iran deal has actual content. 342 00:18:51,120 --> 00:18:54,840 Pakistan's Prime Minister Sharif is currently in Saudi Arabia, 343 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:57,480 the first stop of his four day regional tour. 344 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,720 The Lebanon ceasefire announcement delivered by Trump 345 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:04,360 on the same day, give Sharif a concrete achievement to present 346 00:19:04,360 --> 00:19:07,200 to the Saudis as evidence that the Islamabad process is 347 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:10,680 producing results. It is diplomatic sequencing of 348 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:12,880 the most purposeful and deliberate kind. 349 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:16,520 European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed 350 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:19,640 the 10 day ceasefire and called it a step toward broader 351 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:22,480 stability. The five days between today and 352 00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:25,800 April 22nd are now the most consequential of the entire 353 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:28,960 conflict. A Lebanon ceasefire is active. 354 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:32,560 Munir has been to Tehran with Washington's message. 355 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:37,520 Iran is studying the response. Trump says Iran has agreed to 356 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:41,800 surrender the nuclear material. Trump says he might fly to 357 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:45,120 Pakistan. The blockade remains in place. 358 00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:49,400 The IDF is keeping troops in southern Lebanon in common. 359 00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:52,520 A somewhere in Tehran is deciding whether to send the 360 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:55,800 Iranian delegation back to the Serena Hotel, carrying the 361 00:19:55,800 --> 00:20:00,440 authority to close the remaining gap, the 20% that separated 80% 362 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:02,960 there from a deal. If this podcast is helping you 363 00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:06,280 make sense of what is happening, please take 30 seconds to leave 364 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:08,960 a review on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. 365 00:20:09,360 --> 00:20:12,320 It makes an enormous difference to how many people find the 366 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,400 show. This has been episode 49 of Epic 367 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:21,400 Fury, the US Iran war podcast. Day 49 Lebanon has a 10 day 368 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:24,040 ceasefire. People were celebrating in 369 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,120 Beirut. Iran is studying Pakistan's 370 00:20:27,120 --> 00:20:30,200 message. Trump says Iran agreed to hand 371 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:33,680 over the nuclear material. Trump says he might go to 372 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:37,120 Islamabad. Hegseth says the blockade is for 373 00:20:37,120 --> 00:20:40,360 as long as it takes. One vote separated the War 374 00:20:40,360 --> 00:20:44,320 Powers Resolution from passing in the House. 5 days left on the 375 00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:48,160 Iran ceasefire clock. We will be back very soon.