Karg Island is burning. The tiny strip of land in the
Persian Gulf that processes 90% of Iran's crude oil exports was
bombed overnight. Trump called it one of the most
powerful bombing raids in the history of the Middle East.
He said every military target was totally obliterated.
He said for reasons of decency, he chose not to destroy the oil
infrastructure for now. He warned that if Iran or anyone
else interfered with a free and safe passage of ships through
the Strait of Hormuz, he would immediately reconsider.
Iran's response came within hours.
Its armed forces warned they would target all oil, economic
and energy infrastructure belonging to oil companies
across the region that have American shares or cooperate
with America. Every oil and gas facility,
Saudi Aramco. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company,
Qatar Energy, all of it. Then a missile struck inside the
US embassy compound in Baghdad. Smoke rose above one of the
largest American diplomatic facilities in the world.
A drone hit an oil refinery in Fujairah in the United Arab
Emirates. Qatar announced it was
evacuating key areas. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps called on civilians to evacuate ports, docks and
locations where U.S. forces are sheltered across UAE cities. the
US State Department ordered non-emergency staff and their
families out of Oman. The war has entered its third
week. It is not slowing down.
It is escalating in ways that could reshape the global energy
system for years. This is epic fury. the US Iran
War podcast, daily coverage of the conflict reshaping the
world. Carg Island does not look like
the center of the global economy.
It is a scrubby, flat stretch of land in the northern Persian
Gulf, roughly 30 kilometers off the Iranian mainland.
A small resident population, air defenses, a naval base, a
helicopter hangar and pipelines. Endless pipelines feeding an oil
terminal that processes roughly 950 million barrels of crude oil
every year. Nearly all of Iran's export oil
passes through it before entering the Gulf and the
world's energy supply chains. On Friday night, Trump posted on
Truth Social that he had ordered strikes on the island.
Central Command confirmed the operation.
The target struck included naval mine storage facilities, missile
storage bunkers, the island's air defenses, the Josh and Sea
base, the airport control tower and an offshore oil company's
helicopter hangar. The oil infrastructure was not
targeted. Trump said the United States had
executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the
history of the Middle East. He said every military target
had been totally obliterated. He said Iran will be wise to lay
down its arms and save what is left of its country.
He then issued a direct trip wire.
If Iran or anyone else interferes with a free and safe
passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, he would
immediately reconsider his decision not to destroy the oil
infrastructure. Iran's armed forces issued a
formal counter threat within hours.
Ibrahim Zalfagari, spokesperson for Iran's Joint Military
Command, warned that Iran would target all oil, economic and
energy infrastructure belonging to oil companies across the
region that have American shares or cooperate with America.
Not a specific target, Not a proportional response, a blanket
declaration of intent against the entire Gulf energy
infrastructure. Iran also threatened the United
Arab Emirates specifically. The IRGC said U.S. military
hideouts across UAE cities were legitimate targets following the
Karg strikes and urged people to evacuate ports, docks and
locations where U.S. forces are based.
Iranian officials said oil exports and company operations
on Carg Island were proceeding normally after the attack.
The oil terminal appeared intact for now.
Carg Island has been untouched in every previous round of
conflict between the US and Iran.
Even during the tanker wars of the 1980s, when the US was
actively escorting Gulf shipping from Iranian attack, Carg Island
itself was never directly struck by American forces.
Friday's bombing crossed a line that had not been crossed
before. It is not a final step.
It is a warning a holding of Iran's entire oil economy
hostage to compliance with the Strait of Hormuz demand.
Senior U.S. military officials confirmed the Kargh strikes
destroyed more than 90 military targets while preserving the oil
infrastructure. That preservation is deliberate.
The threat to destroy it next time is the leverage.
General Dan Kane warned Trump before the war began that Iran
could try to close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation.
Trump reportedly acknowledged the risk but decided to proceed,
telling advisors he believed Iran would capitulate before
taking such a step. Iran has not capitulated.
The straight has been effectively closed for two weeks
and now the US is bombing the island that makes Iran's oil
economy function, threatening to destroy the rest if the straight
stays shut. Trump also said on Friday he
believed U.S. Navy escorts for tankers through
the straight would happen soon. Energy Secretary Chris Wright
told CNBC earlier in the week the Navy would not be ready
until the end of March. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson
added the escorts would begin as soon as it is militarily
possible. The three senior officials were
not aligned on what soon means. Iran, for its part, is exploring
an alternative. A senior Iranian official told
CNN that Tehran was considering allowing a limited number of oil
tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, provided the
oil cargo was traded in Chinese yuan rather than U.S. dollars.
International oil is almost entirely traded in dollars.
Iran is not proposing to reopen the Strait, is proposing to use
the Strait as a mechanism to undermine the dollar's global
dominance while the war continues.
The USS Tripoli and its Marine Expeditionary Unit are now
heading to the region. More than 2200 Marines F35
fighter jets V22 Ospreys amphibious The salt capability
The Pentagon confirmed the deployment but declined to
specify the Marines role. Options are being kept
deliberately open. Marine Expeditionary units
specialize in amphibious landings, embassy security and
civilian evacuations. the US Embassy in Baghdad was just
struck by a missile. The connection is not subtle.
The Baghdad embassy strike on Saturday morning was confirmed
by two Iraqi security officials. Associated Press footage showed
a column of smoke rising above the compound.
The attack also reportedly destroyed an air defense system
protecting the embassy. The compound, which sits inside
Baghdad's fortified Green Zone, has been repeatedly targeted
since the war began. Iranian aligned militias in Iraq
have intensified their operations as the conflict is
widened. Pete Hegseth said something at
his Friday Pentagon briefing that immediately drew legal
scrutiny. He said we will keep pressing,
we will keep pushing, keep advancing.
No quarter, no mercy for our enemies.
The phrase no quarter has a specific meaning in
international law. It means refusing to accept the
surrender of enemy combatants. Under The Hague Convention and
other international treaties. Threatening to give no quarter
is explicitly illegal. Domestic U.S. law under the 1996
War Crimes Act also prohibits such policies.
The Nuremberg trials upheld the standard after World War 2.
Democratic Congressman Eugene Vineman, who sits on the Armed
Services Committee, raised immediate concerns that Hegseth
had issued what could be construed as an illegal order.
Legal experts in human rights organizations described the
phrase as a potential war crime. Senator Jeff Merkley called
Hegseth a dangerous amateur and connected the remark directly to
the min of school strike. The same engagement rules that
produce no quarter also gutted the civilian protection offices
that would have caught the outdated min of targeting data
before 165 children died. Hegseth has not walked back the
remark. the US State Department offered up to $10 million for
information about Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba
Khamenei. The offer came through the
Rewards for Justice program. The notice listed Kamaneh
alongside 9 other senior Iranian figures, including Ali Larijani,
Intelligence Minister Esmel Khatib, Interior Minister
Eskander Momini and military advisor Major General Yehir
Rahim Safavi. The State Department described
them as people who command and direct various elements of the
IRGC, which plans, organizes and executes terrorism around the
world. the United States is now offering $10 million for the
location of the head of state of a sovereign nation.
That is not how America describes its wars.
That is how America describes its counterterrorism operations
against non state actors. U.S.
Army Secretary Dan Driscoll announced the United States was
deploying 10,000 interceptor drones to the Middle East.
The move responds directly to the economics of the drone war.
Iran has fired almost 2000 drones since the start of
Operation Epic Fury. Each Shahid drone cost between
20,000 and $35,000. Each Patriot missile
intercepting it costs 4 million. the United States has been
spending millions to destroy drones worth 10s of thousands.
10,000 cheap interceptor drones changes that calculation.
The attrition economics are finally being addressed.
At the Pentagon briefing, Hegseth announced that US and
Israeli forces have now struck more than 15,000 targets inside
Iran, more than 1000 targets a day since the war began.
He said the war is going very well.
He said Iran's leadership is cowering underground like rats.
He said Mojtaba Khamenei is wounded and likely disfigured.
He said no quarter, no mercy. He said the United States does
not need to worry about the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel said its own tally was approximately 7600 strikes on
Iran and 1100 in Lebanon. The discrepancy between
Hagsetha's 15,000 figure and the Israeli figure of around 8700
combined was not explained. Senior Iranian officials,
including Ali Larijani and several government ministers
were filmed in public at the Coud's Day demonstrations in
Tehran on Friday. The images directly contradicted
Hegseth's claim that Iran's leadership was cowering
underground. Hegseth did not address the
contradiction. Israel's Defense Minister Katz
announced on Saturday that the conflict was escalating and
entering what he called the decisive phase.
He said that phase will continue for as long as necessary.
Senior regional officials told journalists they expected the
war to last at least another week and that Israeli leaders
increasingly believe the US and Israel will end the war
unilaterally without negotiated agreement.
In such a scenario, Iran and its allies could establish a new
normal of intermittent fire, prompting repeated Israeli
retaliation indefinitely. That is not an ending.
That is a permanent new reality. Israel also told Axios on
Saturday that it wanted to, in the words of the report,
flattened southern Lebanon, like Gaza to destroy Hezbollah weapon
sites. Israeli diplomat Ron Dermer was
said to be tasked with ceasefire talks with Beirut.
French President Emmanuel Macron offered Paris as a location for
those ceasefire discussions. He called on Israel to seize
this opportunity to launch talks, find a lasting solution
and allow Lebanese authorities to fulfill their commitments.
Lebanon's President Joseph On said Friday he had expressed
readiness to negotiate with Israel.
He had received no response. An Israeli strike hit healthcare
center in Borg Kalawai in southern Lebanon on Saturday. 12
medical staff were killed, Doctors, nurses, paramedics.
Lebanon's health ministry condemned the attack.
The total death toll in Lebanon since fighting resumed on March
the second has reached 773. More than 850,000 people are
displaced. Israeli shells also struck the
headquarters of a Nepalese United Nations peacekeeping
battalion in the southern Lebanese town of Maisel Jabal.
The UNIFIL Force has been in Lebanon since 1978.
The incident raised serious questions under international
law and was noted and then largely absorbed into the
relentless daily cascade of events. 1/3 Iranian missile
entered Turkish airspace during the conflict. the US Navy
destroyer USS Oscar Austin intercepted it.
It was the 3rd interception in 10 days.
Turkey issued a travel advisory for Iraq.
NATO Secretary General Mark Ruta confirmed the alliance's
commitment to defend Turkey. Article 4 has been invoked
multiple times. Article 4 is one step before
Article 5, which treats an attack on any member as an
attack on all. Qatar's Interior Ministry
announced Saturday it was evacuating a number of key
areas. 8000 American troops are based at Al Udiyid Air Base in
Qatar, the largest US air base in the Middle East.
Evacuating key civilian areas of the country where they are
stationed is not a precaution. That is a wartime civil defense
operation. the US State Department ordered all
non-emergency government employees and their families out
of Oman, the country that served as the diplomatic back channel
between Tehran and Washington for months.
Brent crude closed Friday at $103.14 per barrel.
US crude closed at $98.71. Average US petrol prices reached
$3.68 per gallon on Saturday, according to AAA, a 23% increase
since the war began on February the 28th.
The first week of the war reportedly cost US taxpayers
upwards of $11 billion. The Center for Strategic and
International Studies calculated the total cost of the 1st 12
days at approximately $16.5 billion.
The casualty count at the end of day 15 At least 1444 people
killed in Iran, according to figures reported to the United
Nations. 773 killed in Lebanon. 12 Israeli civilians and two
Israeli soldiers. 13 confirmed American military deaths. 140 to
150 Americans wounded. More than 1100 children injured
or killed, according to UNICEF. 3.2 million Iranians displaced,
more than 850,000 displaced in Lebanon Iran separately
confirmed it had deployed more than 4500 soldiers and
commanders during the conflict with Israeli military estimates
of between 4 and 5000 killed. 56% of Americans opposed the
war, according to the NPRPBS News and Marist Poll.
The Republican controlled Congress has not moved to assert
war powers. Authority Senator Chris Murphy
said the administration cannot defend this war in public.
That is why the briefings are classified, he said.
Destroying Iran's nuclear program was not even listed as a
stated goal in the classified briefings he attended.
Macron offered Paris as a ceasefire venue for Israel and
Lebanon. France announced it was ready to
facilitate those discussions. Whether Israel would accept is a
different question entirely. Israel's current posture is
decisive. Phase, no time limit, and,
according to the Axios report, flattened like Gaza.
Reza Palavi, the exiled son of Iran's last Shah, announced on
Saturday that a group has prepared a transitional system
for Iran's future governance, which he would lead upon the
fall of the Islamic Republic. The Trump administration has
framed this war from the start as being ultimately about
liberation of the Iranian people.
What replaces the Islamic Republic has never been publicly
defined. Pallavi is offering himself as
the answer whether the people inside Iran, those living under
bombardment, Internet blackout and economic collapse.
One, that answer is not something any bomb can
determine. The wider international response
to the Karg Island strikes is still forming, but the initial
signals are significant. Russia called the bombing a
dangerous escalation and warned that any attack on Iranian oil
infrastructure would have consequences for global energy
markets that no country could control.
China issued a statement calling from maximum restraint and
urging all parties to return to diplomacy.
Neither Russia nor China has moved beyond rhetoric to action,
but the Kremlin separately confirmed it was in discussions
with Washington about ways to cooperate on stabilizing global
energy markets. That conversation between a
country supporting Iran with intelligence and a country
bombing it into submission captures the bizarre geometry of
this conflict. Everyone is losing something.
No one wants to lose more. the United Arab Emirates is in an
extraordinarily delicate position.
It hosts U.S. military forces at Al Dhafra Air Base and other
facilities. It is a key financial and
logistical hub for the region. It has been struck repeatedly by
Iranian drones and missiles, and on Saturday the IRGC explicitly
named UE ports and docks as legitimate targets following the
Karg Island strikes. The UAE detained 10 foreign
nationals that same day for posting footage of missile and
drone attacks on social media, accusing them of spreading
disinformation, including AI generated videos of purported
attacks on UAE landmarks. A building at the Dubai
International Financial Center sustained visible fire damage
from an intercepted drone. The UAE's air defenses have
dealt with 285 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles and
1567 drones since the war began. Its air defense operators are
working around the clock. Its government is saying as
little as possible publicly. Saudi Arabia intercepted a drone
in its eastern region on Saturday.
That region contains the core of Saudi Aramco's oil
infrastructure. The kingdom's air defenses have
been firing every day of this conflict.
Saudi Arabia lobbied Trump to attack Iran before the war
began, is now absorbing Iranian retaliation for that lobbying.
It cannot say so publicly. Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammad
Shia Al Sadani pledged on Saturday to prevent further
attacks on international forces based in his country following
the drone strike that killed French Chief Warrant Officer
Arnaud Fryant in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Iraq is in an impossible position.
It is constitutionally sovereign but functionally divided, with
Iranian aligned armed factions operating within its borders and
conducting strikes against U.S. forces from its territory.
Al Sadani cannot stop those factions.
He can only issue pledges and absorb the diplomatic
consequences. Turkey issued a travel advisory
for Iraq. It had an Iranian missile
intercepted over its airspace for the third time.
A NATO ally having its airspace violated 3 times in 15 days,
each time being told it was a technical anomaly is a situation
with no precedent in the alliance's history.
Karg Island was bombed. The oil terminal survived.
The threat to destroy next time is now explicit.
The US Embassy in Baghdad was struck.
Qatar is evacuating. Oman is being emptied of
American personnel. Iran is threatening to set the
entire Gulf energy infrastructure on fire.
Israel wants to flatten southern Lebanon.
France wants to host ceasefire talks.
Trump says Navy escorts are coming soon, His energy
secretary said. The end of March, his Treasury
Secretary said as soon as militarily possible, a $10
million bounty was placed on the head of Iran's supreme leader.
10,000 interceptor drones are on their way to the Middle East.
2200 Marines are sailing toward the Gulf.
Petrol is $3.68. Brent crude is over $100.
The war has cost $16.5 billion in 12 days, and somewhere in a
hospital in Tehran, the most powerful man in Iran has still
not spoken, still has not appeared, and still has not been
seen. His country is being bombed, his
oil island has been struck, his Navy is gone, his Air Force is
destroyed, his missile program is being systematically
eliminated, and the world has still not heard his voice.
Day 15 no end insight. This has been epic Fury, the US
Iran War podcast. New episodes every day on
Spotify, Apple Podcast and YouTube.