1
00:00:16,820 --> 00:00:21,020
Trump says Iran wants a deal, 
Iran says it never asked for 

2
00:00:21,020 --> 00:00:25,420
one, and a drone just set Dubai 
International Airport on fire. 

3
00:00:25,940 --> 00:00:32,860
It is Monday, March 16th, 2026, 
day 17 of Operation Epic Fury, 

4
00:00:33,300 --> 00:00:35,860
and the gap between what 
Washington is saying and what 

5
00:00:35,860 --> 00:00:38,060
Tehran is doing has never been 
wider. 

6
00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:42,240
This is Epic Fury, the US Iran 
war podcast. 

7
00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:46,200
There is a great deal to cover. 
Let's get into it. 

8
00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:49,760
Start with the central 
contradiction of the last 24 

9
00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:52,040
hours, because it defines 
everything. 

10
00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:57,120
On Saturday, Trump told NBC News
that Iran wants to make a deal. 

11
00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:01,040
His exact framing? 
Iran is ready to negotiate, but 

12
00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:02,840
the terms are not good enough 
yet. 

13
00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:07,400
He said he is talking to Iran. 
He said allies have responded to

14
00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:09,680
his call for help on the Strait 
of Hormuz. 

15
00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:13,200
He projected an air of a man 
managing a conflict toward a 

16
00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:16,920
conclusion on his terms. 
It was a confident performance, 

17
00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:20,480
controlled presidential and 
register. 

18
00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:25,760
Then Arachi went on CBS News 
Face the Nation on Sunday and 

19
00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:29,000
what he said landed like a 
grenade in the middle of Trump's

20
00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:31,200
narrative. 
No, we never asked for a 

21
00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:35,440
ceasefire, and we have never 
asked even for negotiation. 

22
00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:40,360
We are ready to defend ourselves
as long as it takes, not hedged,

23
00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:45,840
not diplomatic, flat denial. 
On live American television, he 

24
00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:48,720
went further. 
In a separate interview with Al 

25
00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:51,920
Arabi Al Jadid, an Arabic 
language outlet, Arachi 

26
00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:55,240
explained Iran's conditions for 
ending the war in terms that go 

27
00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:58,600
well beyond a ceasefire. 
He said the war will end when 

28
00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:02,400
Iran has certainty it will not 
be restarted and that 

29
00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:06,360
reparations must be paid. 
He cited direct experience. 

30
00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:09,639
Indirect nuclear talks were 
underway last June when the 

31
00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:13,320
United States attacked Iran. 
Negotiations had resumed in 

32
00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:16,440
February of this year when the 
United States attacked again. 

33
00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:19,800
He said there is no good 
experience talking with 

34
00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:22,600
Americans. 
That is not the posture of a 

35
00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:24,440
government preparing to 
negotiate. 

36
00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:27,320
That is the posture of a 
government that has concluded 

37
00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:30,400
the other side will not honor 
any agreement it makes. 

38
00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:34,040
You do not demand reparations as
an opening position if you are 

39
00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:37,680
trying to lower the temperature.
You demand reparations when you 

40
00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:40,720
want to show your own population
that you are not capitulating. 

41
00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:43,920
The White House has not 
explained the discrepancy 

42
00:02:43,920 --> 00:02:46,600
between Trump's claims and 
Arachi's denial. 

43
00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:50,040
No administration official has 
named the channel through which 

44
00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:52,800
Iran allegedly expressed 
interest in a deal. 

45
00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,320
No Iranian official has 
confirmed any back channel is 

46
00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:59,440
active, and when a reporter 
asked Trump directly whether 

47
00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:02,320
there were specific Iranian 
figures he wanted to see lead 

48
00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:04,960
the country going forward, he 
said only that there are people 

49
00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:07,760
living who would be great 
leaders for the future and that 

50
00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:09,840
he did not want to name them for
fear of putting them in 

51
00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:12,640
jeopardy. 
That is a remarkable thing for a

52
00:03:12,640 --> 00:03:16,120
sitting president. 
To say publicly is an admission 

53
00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:19,200
that the United States has 
conversations it cannot disclose

54
00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:21,520
with Iranian figures who cannot 
be named. 

55
00:03:21,920 --> 00:03:25,080
What we are watching is a war of
competing narratives running 

56
00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:27,080
parallel to the actual shooting 
war. 

57
00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:30,760
Trump needs to project forward 
momentum toward an exit. 

58
00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:35,480
Iran needs to project defiance 
and endurance and the truth of 

59
00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:38,440
what is actually being 
communicated privately, if 

60
00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:40,800
anything is known to neither 
public. 

61
00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:43,400
Now let's talk. 
About the Hormuz coalition 

62
00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:47,080
because Trump escalated his push
for one and ran into a wall of 

63
00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:49,280
polite rejections from every 
direction. 

64
00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:53,280
Trump took to Truth Social and 
to the Financial Times to make 

65
00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:55,320
his most forceful public case 
yet. 

66
00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:59,520
He called on China, France, 
Japan, South Korea and the 

67
00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:02,520
United Kingdom to send warships 
to the Strait of Hormuz. 

68
00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:06,680
He warned that NATO faces a very
bad future if allies fail to 

69
00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:09,200
assist. 
He said the Strait cannot be 

70
00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:12,600
held hostage by a nation that 
has been totally decapitated. 

71
00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:16,160
And in a move that introduced a 
new pressure point into the most

72
00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:19,200
consequential bilateral 
relationship in the world, he 

73
00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:22,160
told the Financial Times that 
his planned summit with Chinese 

74
00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:24,960
President Xi Jinping in Beijing 
later this month could be 

75
00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:28,120
delayed if Beijing does not play
a constructive role in reopening

76
00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:30,440
the waterway. 
The responses were, 

77
00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:34,200
diplomatically speaking, a 
series of different formulations

78
00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:37,440
for the same answer. 
Japan's Prime Minister Sanaya 

79
00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:40,920
Takaichi told parliament that 
Tokyo has made no decisions 

80
00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:43,640
whatsoever about dispatching 
escort ships. 

81
00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:47,120
She said Japan is continuing to 
examine what it can do 

82
00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:50,480
independently and what can be 
done within the legal framework.

83
00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:54,320
Senior Japanese officials said 
the bar for such action would be

84
00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:57,160
too high. 
Australia ruled out deploying 

85
00:04:57,160 --> 00:05:00,520
warships entirely. 
No European government stepped 

86
00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:03,720
forward with a formal 
commitment. the United Kingdom's

87
00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:06,600
Ministry of Defense said it was 
exploring its options. 

88
00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:09,600
That is the diplomatic language 
of a government that wants to 

89
00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:12,280
appear engaged without 
committing to anything that 

90
00:05:12,280 --> 00:05:15,000
might put British ships in front
of Iranian missiles. 

91
00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:18,520
China's non response deserves 
special attention. 

92
00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:23,160
Trump has argued Beijing should 
intervene because it gets 90% of

93
00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:26,720
its oil from the region. 
Energy analysts say that figure 

94
00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:30,200
is significantly overstated. 
Less than half of China's 

95
00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:33,480
seaborne oil imports actually 
pass through the Strait of 

96
00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:36,000
Hormuz. 
The Strait accounts for roughly 

97
00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:40,280
6.6% of China's total energy 
consumption when you include all

98
00:05:40,280 --> 00:05:43,000
sources. 
And critically, Iran has not 

99
00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:47,000
targeted Chinese shipping. 
Beijing has continued receiving 

100
00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:50,200
Iranian oil largely 
uninterrupted throughout this 

101
00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:52,840
conflict. 
From China's perspective, the 

102
00:05:52,840 --> 00:05:55,520
Strait is not equally closed to 
all parties. 

103
00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:58,680
Tehran has made clear that 
neutral and friendly countries 

104
00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:01,320
can transit. 
Iran has been explicit that it 

105
00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:04,240
is specifically blocking 
American and Israeli linked 

106
00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:07,320
shipping, not Chinese or Indian 
or Turkish vessels. 

107
00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:10,960
So Beijing has almost no 
material incentive to send 

108
00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:13,760
warships that would put it on 
the opposite side of a conflict.

109
00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:17,280
It is publicly condemned as a 
grave violation of international

110
00:06:17,280 --> 00:06:19,480
law. 
The broader problem for Trump is

111
00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:22,560
that the Hormuz coalition push 
is now the most visible 

112
00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:26,560
diplomatic initiative of the 
entire war, and it is failing in

113
00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:29,400
public. 
No country has committed. 

114
00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:33,680
The straight remains effectively
closed to Western and American 

115
00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:37,920
Link commercial shipping. 
Oil closed above $106.00 per 

116
00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:42,000
barrel on Sunday. 
Nearly 1000 tankers are reported

117
00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:45,160
to be anchored outside the 
Strait, unable to transit. 

118
00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:49,000
The daily economic damage being 
absorbed by the global economy 

119
00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:52,240
is measured in the hundreds of 
millions of dollars every single

120
00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:53,840
day. 
The situation persists. 

121
00:06:54,280 --> 00:06:57,760
The chief executives of 
ExxonMobil, Chevron and Conoco 

122
00:06:57,760 --> 00:07:00,880
Phillips separately warned the 
Trump administration on Sunday 

123
00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:03,400
that the disruption of the 
Strait of Hormuz is likely to 

124
00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:07,200
worsen the global energy crisis.
These are not critics of the 

125
00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:10,080
administration. 
These are the leaders of the 

126
00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:13,320
companies whose products Trump 
is trying to protect the flow 

127
00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:15,680
of. 
When America's own oil industry 

128
00:07:15,680 --> 00:07:18,240
leaders are warning the 
administration that the crisis 

129
00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:21,720
is getting worse, not better, 
that is a signal worth paying 

130
00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:23,960
attention to. 
Now let's talk about. 

131
00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:27,040
Dubai International Airport 
Because what happened there on 

132
00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:30,160
Monday morning crystallized the 
cost of this conflict for the 

133
00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:33,320
civilian world. 
A drone hit a fuel storage tank 

134
00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:36,520
near Dubai International Airport
in the early hours of Monday 

135
00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:39,120
morning local time. 
A fire broke out. 

136
00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:43,320
Smoke rose near the runways. 
The Civil Aviation Authority 

137
00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:46,400
immediately suspended all 
flights as a precautionary 

138
00:07:46,400 --> 00:07:49,200
measure. 
The airport, one of the busiest 

139
00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:51,920
aviation hubs on the planet, was
evacuated. 

140
00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:54,400
Passengers were removed from 
gates. 

141
00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:57,600
People who have been waiting to 
board international connections 

142
00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:00,640
found themselves stranded on one
of the most significant travel 

143
00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:03,360
days of the week. 
Dubai International Airport 

144
00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,880
handles more than 90 million 
passengers per year in normal 

145
00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:10,720
times, is the connective tissue 
of the Middle East's role in 

146
00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:13,200
global commerce, tourism and 
transit. 

147
00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:16,960
Emirates Airlines, 1 of the 
largest carriers on earth, 

148
00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:20,000
operates from it. 
The fire was contained, 

149
00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:22,800
operations were eventually 
restored. 

150
00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:26,720
But the image of smoke rising 
near those runways and the sight

151
00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:30,000
of thousands of passengers being
let out of terminals is not 

152
00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:32,840
easily forgotten. 
This was not the first time 

153
00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:35,520
Dubai's aviation infrastructure 
was targeted. 

154
00:08:36,039 --> 00:08:39,120
Drone incidents near the airport
were reported earlier in the 

155
00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:42,720
conflict, but Monday's fuel tank
fire was the most direct 

156
00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:45,560
successful strike on the 
infrastructure that underpins 

157
00:08:45,560 --> 00:08:48,000
the UA ES function as a global 
commercial hub. 

158
00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:50,760
The UAE has been at war with no 
one. 

159
00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:55,520
It is a partner of the United 
States, its territory is hosting

160
00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:59,320
American military assets and it 
has been absorbing Iranian 

161
00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:01,720
strikes in exchange for that 
association. 

162
00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:06,000
Abu Dhabi had already accused 
Iran of moral bankruptcy after 

163
00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:09,040
Tehran claimed the Karg Island 
strikes will launch from UAE 

164
00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:12,600
territory near Dubai. 
Monday's airport fire will have 

165
00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:14,640
sharpened that grievance 
considerably. 

166
00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:17,040
Now let's talk. 
About the broader military 

167
00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:20,200
picture overnight because 
strikes continued on multiple 

168
00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:23,040
fronts. 
United States and Israeli forces

169
00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:27,080
struck targets across Tehran, 
Hamadan, and Isfahan on Sunday 

170
00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:30,320
night and into Monday morning. 
Eyewitness accounts transmitted 

171
00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:33,600
to Iran International reported 
five loud explosions in the 

172
00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:36,760
Galshar and Mercer districts of 
Carriage near Tehran. 

173
00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:39,440
At around 2:50 in the morning 
local time. 

174
00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:43,720
The Agai complex was struck. 
Surrounding streets were sealed 

175
00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:46,880
off by Islamic Revolutionary 
Guard Corps forces. 

176
00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:50,320
Fighter jets operated multiple 
times over the city. 

177
00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:53,960
Before dawn, the Islamic 
Revolutionary Guard Corps 

178
00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:57,200
announced its 50th wave of 
operations against American 

179
00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:00,800
bases in the region. 
Those operations targeted United

180
00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:04,120
States military infrastructure 
in United Arab Emirates, 

181
00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:07,320
Bahrain, and Kuwait. 
Iran said it launched 10 

182
00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:10,840
missiles and several drones at 
Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE. 

183
00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:14,440
Qatar intercepted all drones and
missiles launched at its 

184
00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:17,000
territory. 
Saudi Arabia's Ministry of 

185
00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:20,240
Defense reported 4 drones 
intercepted over the Riyadh 

186
00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,600
metropolitan area and six 
ballistic missiles destroyed 

187
00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:27,040
near the AL Qarge Governorate. 
The UK's Royal Air Force 

188
00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:31,400
continued air defense patrols 
over Qatar, Cyprus, the UAE and 

189
00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:33,760
Bahrain. 
A British counter drone unit 

190
00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:37,240
shot down multiple Iranian 
drones during Sunday's attacks 

191
00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:40,680
on coalition bases. 
Israel's military announced a 

192
00:10:40,680 --> 00:10:44,680
wave of extensive strikes on 
Iranian military infrastructure 

193
00:10:44,680 --> 00:10:48,040
in western Iran, with targets in
Hamadan and Isfan. 

194
00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:50,840
In Lebanon. 
Israeli airstrikes struck 

195
00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:54,360
Hezbollah positions in the South
of the country, including Qayam,

196
00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:56,560
Lebanese health authorities 
reported. 

197
00:10:56,560 --> 00:11:01,040
The total death toll in Lebanon 
has now reached 850 people since

198
00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:03,800
the start of the conflict, with 
over 2000 wounded. 

199
00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:07,080
That number has been climbing 
consistently since Hezbollah 

200
00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:10,520
reopened its front on March 2nd.
And in a development with 

201
00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:14,240
significant implications for the
Lebanon front, Israeli officials

202
00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:17,120
confirmed that Israel and 
Lebanon are in preliminary 

203
00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:20,120
discussions aimed at a durable 
ceasefire, one that would 

204
00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:22,000
include the disarmament of 
Hezbollah. 

205
00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:26,040
Ron Dermer, Netanyahu's close 
confidant and former ambassador 

206
00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:29,000
to Washington, is leading the 
Israeli delegation. 

207
00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:31,960
France is involved in the 
diplomatic effort. 

208
00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:36,320
Beirut is assembling A 
negotiating team, but Lebanese 

209
00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:39,280
officials said they first needed
clarity on whether Israel 

210
00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:42,800
intended a full ceasefire before
formal talks could begin. 

211
00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:46,200
The fact that Israel's foreign 
minister, Gideon Sayar, denied 

212
00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:49,040
any planned talks existed 
earlier the same day that 

213
00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:51,480
Israeli officials were 
confirming they were underway 

214
00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:54,520
tells you how contested and 
fragile this process is. 

215
00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:58,600
Still, the mere existence of a 
Lebanon track, even an embryonic

216
00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:02,280
1, is the first credible 
diplomatic thread this conflict 

217
00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:04,320
is produced. 
Now let's talk about. 

218
00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:07,680
Mojtaba Khamenei Because the 
question of the supreme leader's

219
00:12:07,680 --> 00:12:10,800
condition has become one of the 
defining uncertainties of the 

220
00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:14,520
entire war. 
Trump told NBC News on Saturday 

221
00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:17,480
that he was not sure whether the
new supreme leader was still 

222
00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:19,800
alive. 
He said, And these are his 

223
00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:21,920
words. 
So far, no one's been able to 

224
00:12:21,920 --> 00:12:24,840
show him. 
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth 

225
00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:28,360
had said on Friday that Khamenei
had been wounded and was likely 

226
00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:31,280
disfigured. 
Iran's foreign Minister Arachi 

227
00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:34,800
pushed back on Sunday, saying 
there is no problem with a new 

228
00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:38,600
supreme leader. 
But he produced no video, no 

229
00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:43,760
audio recording, no photograph, 
no public evidence of any kind 

230
00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:46,680
of common A's current condition 
beyond an assertion. 

231
00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:50,600
A supreme leader who cannot be 
seen, who has delivered no live 

232
00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:53,280
address in the week since his 
appointment was announced, who 

233
00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:56,800
remains invisible to his own 
people and to the outside world,

234
00:12:57,120 --> 00:13:00,360
is a supreme leader who holds 
authority in theory more than in

235
00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:02,920
practice. 
The question of who is actually 

236
00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:06,320
directing Iran's military and 
political decision making right 

237
00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,880
now, when a man nominally at the
top is reportedly wounded and in

238
00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:14,000
hiding, has no clean answer. 
This matters enormously for the 

239
00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:17,840
diplomatic picture. 
Iran's constitution requires the

240
00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:21,120
supreme leader to sanction major
policy decisions. 

241
00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:24,960
Arachi himself admitted earlier 
in the conflict that Iranian 

242
00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:28,040
armed forces were operating on 
general instructions without 

243
00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:30,520
specific target approval from 
Central Command. 

244
00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:34,440
If Common A is incapacitated, 
the chain of authority between 

245
00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:37,280
the man with constitutional 
power and the weapons being 

246
00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:40,000
fired is broken. 
And that raises a question that 

247
00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:43,040
nobody in Washington or Tehran 
appears ready to answer 

248
00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:44,880
publicly. 
If the conditions for a 

249
00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:48,080
ceasefire were agreed, who on 
the Iranian side has the 

250
00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:50,040
authority to sign it and make a 
hold? 

251
00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:52,800
Now let's talk. 
About the humanitarian numbers 

252
00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:55,520
because they crossed another 
significant threshold. 

253
00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:59,200
On Sunday, Iran's Health 
Ministry confirmed that United 

254
00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:03,880
States and Israeli strikes to 
killed 223 women and 202 

255
00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:07,520
children since February 28th. 
The Iranian Red Crescent 

256
00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:10,640
reported total deaths at more 
than 1300. 

257
00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:14,400
Tehran's governor said at least 
10,000 residential homes have 

258
00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:17,320
been damaged or completely 
destroyed by American and 

259
00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:21,320
Israeli attacks. 
More than 3.2 million Iranians 

260
00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:24,440
remain displaced. 
The United Nations Human Rights 

261
00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:26,720
Council is holding a session 
this week. 

262
00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:30,520
UN special rapper Termi Sato 
condemned the strikes ahead of 

263
00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:34,080
that session and said unlawful 
force must not be seen as a 

264
00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:36,240
solution to Iran's internal 
crisis. 

265
00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:39,680
Iran's foreign minister called 
the bombing of fuel depots in 

266
00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:42,840
Tehran echo side, warning that 
soil and groundwater 

267
00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:45,480
contamination could cause 
generational health damage to 

268
00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:48,960
the city's population. 
CN NS analysis of satellite 

269
00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:52,160
imagery and air quality data 
confirmed that Israel has struck

270
00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:55,680
multiple fuel storage facilities
in Tehran and that pollution 

271
00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:58,440
levels across the city have 
risen sharply as a result. 

272
00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:01,800
Pope Leo the 14th spoke again on
Sunday. 

273
00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:05,400
His language was more urgent 
than anything he had said 

274
00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:07,920
previously. 
In the name of the Christians of

275
00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:11,960
the Middle East and of all women
and men of goodwill, cease the 

276
00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:14,680
fire. 
It was a direct, unmediated 

277
00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:17,960
plea. 
Not a call for dialogue, not a 

278
00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:22,280
call for restraint, a call for 
the bombs to stop. 3 

279
00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:25,240
institutions, the United 
Nations, a Catholic Pope and 

280
00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:28,520
Iran's own foreign minister. 
I'll describe what is happening 

281
00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:31,240
inside Iran in terms of 
international law and 

282
00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:34,680
humanitarian catastrophe. 
None of it has changed the 

283
00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,800
operational tempo on the ground 
by a single sortie. 

284
00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:41,000
Now let's talk about. 
China and the Trump XI Summit 

285
00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:44,120
Because this may become the most
consequential diplomatic 

286
00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:47,200
development of the next two 
weeks, Trump's threat to delay 

287
00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:50,840
the summit over Hormuz is being 
parsed very carefully in Beijing

288
00:15:51,040 --> 00:15:53,640
and in every capital that 
monitors the United States. 

289
00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:57,360
China relationship The summit is
planned for late March. 

290
00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:00,880
It would be the first visit by a
sitting American president to 

291
00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:05,080
China since 2017. 
Senior American and Chinese 

292
00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:08,480
trade officials, including 
Treasury Secretary Scott Besson 

293
00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:11,600
and Chinese Vice Premier 
Halafing, have been meeting in 

294
00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:14,800
Paris to prepare the ground. 
The entire architecture of the 

295
00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:17,840
meeting is built around 
stabilizing a relationship that 

296
00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:22,520
has accumulated enormous strain 
across trade, technology, Taiwan

297
00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:25,600
and now Iran. 
Trump has now inserted Hormuz 

298
00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:28,800
into that relationship by 
threatening to cancel a summit 

299
00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:31,680
China has diplomatic and 
economic reasons to want. 

300
00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:35,480
He's trying to extract Chinese 
naval cooperation on a waterway 

301
00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:38,360
where Beijing has no military 
interest in intervening. 

302
00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:41,920
The pressure is real, but so is 
the risk. 

303
00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:45,480
If Trump cancels or 
significantly delays the summit 

304
00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:48,920
over a Hormuz cooperation demand
that China cannot politically 

305
00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:51,680
meet, he forfeits one of the 
most significant diplomatic 

306
00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:54,640
assets he holds from managing 
the broader global picture. 

307
00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:58,520
If he holds the summit without 
extracting Chinese cooperation, 

308
00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:01,280
he demonstrates that the 
leverage threat was hollow. 

309
00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:05,680
There is 1/3 possibility China 
uses the summit as cover to 

310
00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:09,119
offer something on the margins, 
some quiet pressure on Tehran 

311
00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,960
through back channels that 
allows both sides to claim a 

312
00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:14,880
partial win without Beijing 
sending a single warship 

313
00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:18,520
anywhere near the Persian Gulf. 
That is the kind of outcome that

314
00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:22,800
real diplomacy quietly produces.
Whether the current situation 

315
00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:26,359
with bombs still falling and a 
supreme leader in hiding leaves 

316
00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:29,360
room for that kind of subtlety 
is a question no one can yet 

317
00:17:29,360 --> 00:17:32,320
answer. 
Before we step back, one more 

318
00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:35,120
story that cuts across the 
military and political 

319
00:17:35,120 --> 00:17:39,000
dimensions simultaneously. 
Reza Pallavi, the exiled son of 

320
00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:42,440
Iran's last Shah, issued a 
public call on Monday for 

321
00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:45,400
Iranians around the world to 
gather at Iranian embassy 

322
00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:48,240
buildings on Wednesday for 
Church and Bassuri, an ancient 

323
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:51,120
Persian fire festival that falls
on the eve of the spring 

324
00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:53,600
equinox, he wrote on social 
media. 

325
00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:57,280
I call on all Iranians abroad to
gather on Church and Bassuri in 

326
00:17:57,280 --> 00:18:00,000
front of the regime's embassies 
around the world and shout with 

327
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,800
one voice. 
The Iranian nation will not rest

328
00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:06,120
until Iran is liberated and the 
Islamic Republic is consigned to

329
00:18:06,120 --> 00:18:08,560
history. 
It is a striking moment. 

330
00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:12,440
An ancient Zoroastrian fire 
ritual is being called into 

331
00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:15,680
service as a political 
demonstration against the regime

332
00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:19,120
fighting for its survival. 
Pallavi has been the public face

333
00:18:19,120 --> 00:18:22,400
of the Iranian opposition in 
exile throughout this conflict. 

334
00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,800
He previously announced A 
transitional system framework 

335
00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:28,920
for what he envisions as a post 
Islamic Republic Iran. 

336
00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:32,320
The Trump administration has 
given him varying degrees of 

337
00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:35,680
implicit encouragement. 
But inside Iran itself, where 

338
00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:38,760
over 3 million people are 
displaced and Internet access 

339
00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:42,240
remains severely restricted 
after more than 240 hours of 

340
00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:45,560
continuous blackout, his call 
will reach few Iranian citizens 

341
00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:48,280
directly. 
Trump, asked about the absence 

342
00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:52,320
of uprisings inside Iran, told 
reporters aboard Air Force One. 

343
00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:55,920
You are dealing with thugs. 
He said the Iranian leadership 

344
00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:58,880
has notified everybody that if 
you protest you will be shot and

345
00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:02,240
killed, and said he understood 
why Iranians were not taking to 

346
00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:03,920
the streets. 
Now let's look. 

347
00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:08,840
At what day 17 actually means. 
Trump says Iran wants to talk. 

348
00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:14,040
Iran says it does not. 
Oil is at $106.00 a barrel. 

349
00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:16,600
Dubai's airport burned this 
morning. 

350
00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:20,680
Nearly 1000 tankers sit anchored
outside the Strait. 

351
00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:24,160
The 50th Iranian wave of strikes
has been launched. 

352
00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:29,920
Strikes on Tehran and Isfahan 
will continue tonight. 223 women

353
00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:35,280
and 202 children are confirmed 
dead in Iran, 850 people have 

354
00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:38,880
been killed in Lebanon, and the 
Supreme Leader of the Islamic 

355
00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:42,520
Republic has not been seen alive
in public since his appointment 

356
00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:45,080
was announced. 
And yet there are threats. 

357
00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:49,280
The Lebanon ceasefire track 
exists, even if fragile. 

358
00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:53,600
The Trumpchi summit threatened 
with delay, remains a potential 

359
00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:56,040
lever. 
Arachi's conditions for ending 

360
00:19:56,040 --> 00:20:00,040
the war, reparations and 
guarantees of non repetition are

361
00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,840
implicit terms, even if not an 
offer. 

362
00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:06,920
In Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince 
Mohammed bin Salman is privately

363
00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:10,160
urging Trump to keep hitting 
Iran hard, according to the New 

364
00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:13,040
York Times, echoing the late 
King Abdullah's famous 

365
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:15,920
instruction to Washington to cut
off the head of the snake. 

366
00:20:16,360 --> 00:20:20,240
That last detail is worth 
sitting with the most important 

367
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:22,520
Arab state in the region. 
The custodian of the world's 

368
00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:25,920
largest oil reserves is 
privately urging America to 

369
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:29,560
intensify the very campaign that
has closed the Strait of Hormuz 

370
00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:31,840
and pushed oil above $100 a 
barrel. 

371
00:20:32,360 --> 00:20:35,520
Riyadh's calculation is that a 
weakened or collapsed Iranian 

372
00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:38,520
regime is worth more than cheap 
oil in the short term. 

373
00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:42,440
That calculation is not shared 
by every government watching 

374
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:46,160
this conflict and is certainly 
not shared by the passengers who

375
00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:48,840
found themselves standing 
outside Dubai International 

376
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,600
Airport at 3:00 in the morning 
while the fuel tanks burned. 

377
00:20:52,120 --> 00:20:55,160
Day 17. 
The bombing continues. 

378
00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:59,280
The talks do not, and somewhere 
the shape of an exit is 

379
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,560
beginning to form in the 
shadows, even if no one is ready

380
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:06,320
to step into the light. 
This has been epic Fury. the US 

381
00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:10,160
Iran War Podcast. 
Subscribe on Spotify, Apple 

382
00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:13,760
Podcasts or YouTube so every new
episode reaches you the moment 

383
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,400
it is published. 
Share this with someone who 

384
00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:18,400
needs to understand what is 
happening. 

385
00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:20,440
We will be back tomorrow.
