1 00:00:16,830 --> 00:00:19,230 President Trump spoke to the nation from the Cross Hall of 2 00:00:19,230 --> 00:00:21,990 the White House in a primetime address washed by 10s of 3 00:00:21,990 --> 00:00:24,910 millions of Americans on a Wednesday evening that also saw 4 00:00:24,910 --> 00:00:28,310 the launch of Artemis 2, the first crude lunar mission in 5 00:00:28,310 --> 00:00:31,710 more than 50 years. He said the wars core strategic 6 00:00:31,710 --> 00:00:33,630 objectives are nearing completion. 7 00:00:34,150 --> 00:00:37,510 He vowed to hit Iran extremely hard over the next two to three 8 00:00:37,510 --> 00:00:40,000 weeks. He claimed Iran's president had 9 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:43,640 asked for a ceasefire, a claim Iran denied within hours. 10 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:47,280 And he told the countries that use the Strait of Hormuz to go 11 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:52,120 and take it themselves. It is Thursday, April 2nd, 2026, 12 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:57,080 day 34 of Operation Epic Fury. The president has addressed the 13 00:00:57,080 --> 00:01:00,000 nation. Iran has denied everything he 14 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:02,200 said. A third American aircraft 15 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:06,600 carrier is steaming toward the region and April 6th deadline is 16 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:11,400 now 4 days away. This is episode 34 of Epic Fury, 17 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:15,640 the US Iran war podcast. Follow on Spotify and Apple 18 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:18,480 Podcast to stay with this story as it develops. 19 00:01:18,960 --> 00:01:21,720 Let's get into it. The speech came at 9 in the 20 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:24,600 evening, Eastern Time, from the Cross Hall of the White House, 21 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:27,600 with Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, 22 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:31,000 Defense Secretary Hegseth and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs 23 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:33,720 all present. Trump opened by congratulating 24 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:37,320 NASA on the launch of Artemis 2 earlier that evening, the first 25 00:01:37,320 --> 00:01:39,800 crude lunar mission since the 1970s. 26 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:43,520 He placed the war in the context of 47 years of Iranian 27 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:47,400 aggression, invoking the Beirut barracks bombing, the USS Cole 28 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:51,000 and October 7th. He described Iran as the world's 29 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:54,080 number one state sponsor of terror and argued that every 30 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:57,000 American president before him should have dealt with Iranian 31 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,760 nuclear threat. The setting carried its own 32 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:02,600 significance. The Cross Hall is reserved for 33 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:06,160 moments of state, a deliberate choice by an administration that 34 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:09,080 has communicated this war primarily through Truth Social 35 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:11,720 posts. Trump also framed the speech 36 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:15,200 against the backdrop of Artemis 2's launch earlier that evening. 37 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:19,080 He described America as winning in space, on Earth and 38 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:21,720 everywhere in between, a narrative in which military 39 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:25,200 power and space exploration are chapters in the same triumphant 40 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:27,600 account. The core claim of the speech was 41 00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:30,680 this. We are nearing completion, Trump 42 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:34,440 said. the US military has delivered swift, decisive and 43 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:38,960 overwhelming victories, he said. Iran's Navy is gone, their air 44 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:42,640 forces in ruins, Their key terrorist leaders have been 45 00:02:42,640 --> 00:02:45,000 eliminated. Their ability to threaten 46 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:49,160 America and its allies is being systematically dismantled, he 47 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:51,560 said. Tonight, the core strategic 48 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:53,440 objectives are nearing completion. 49 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:57,120 He spoke about the 13 American service members who had died in 50 00:02:57,120 --> 00:03:00,680 the conflict, saying the nation must honor them by completing 51 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:02,680 the mission for which they gave their lives. 52 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:06,320 He addressed gas prices directly, the most immediately 53 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:09,640 tangible domestic consequence of the war, saying the short term 54 00:03:09,640 --> 00:03:13,200 increase was entirely the result of Iranian attacks on commercial 55 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:15,640 tankers and neighboring countries that have nothing to 56 00:03:15,640 --> 00:03:18,400 do with the conflict. He urged countries that cannot 57 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:21,400 get fuel to buy oil from the United States, noting that 58 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:24,720 America has plenty and does not need anything Iran has. 59 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:27,880 He said to those nations that have refused to get involved in 60 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:31,480 the decapitation of Iran and who are now suffering the energy 61 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:34,360 consequences, build up some delayed courage. 62 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:37,640 But completion was not a declaration of victory. 63 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:41,480 Trump vowed the United States would still hit Iran extremely 64 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:43,400 hard over the next two to three weeks. 65 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:47,040 He said he would bring them back to the stone ages if Hormuz is 66 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:50,000 not reopened. He said the US would come back 67 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:53,680 to do spot hits on targets even after the main operations 68 00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:56,520 conclude. The speech was not a ceasefire 69 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,360 announcement. It was not a deal announcement. 70 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:02,280 It was a progress report wrapped in a threat. 71 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:05,560 It resolved none of the central questions the war has raised 72 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:08,880 since February 28th. The ceasefire claim and its 73 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:12,360 immediate denial dominated the day before the speech even 74 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,040 began. Trump posted on Truth Social on 75 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:18,200 Wednesday morning that Iran's new regime president, much less 76 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:20,360 radicalized and far more intelligent than his 77 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:23,880 predecessors, had just asked the United States for a ceasefire. 78 00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:26,960 He said the ceasefire would be considered when the Strait of 79 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:30,400 Hormuz is open, free and clear, he added. 80 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:35,000 Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion, or as they say, 81 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:39,080 back to the Stone ages. Iran's response was swift and 82 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:42,040 categorical. The spokesperson for the Iranian 83 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:45,320 Foreign Ministry called Trump's claim false and baseless. 84 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:48,880 A spokesperson for President Possession's office said Iran's 85 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:52,120 position regarding National Defense has not changed and no 86 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:54,600 attention is given to the delusions and falsehoods of 87 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:56,840 criminals. The people of Iran, the 88 00:04:56,840 --> 00:05:00,240 spokesperson added, are determined, steadfast and 89 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:03,240 united. Iran's Foreign Minister Arachi 90 00:05:03,280 --> 00:05:06,320 said you cannot speak to the people of Iran in the language 91 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:10,040 of threats and deadlines. He added that Iran does not set 92 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:12,000 any deadline for defending itself. 93 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:15,440 There's also a factual problem with Trump's framing. 94 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:19,360 He referred to Iran's new regime president as a new figure, 95 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:22,640 implying the war has produced a more moderate leadership. 96 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:27,280 But Masood Posseshkian has been president since July 2024. 97 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:31,320 He is the same president who was in office before the war began. 98 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:34,520 He is a reformist. Yes, he was elected on a 99 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:36,640 platform of reengaging with the West. 100 00:05:36,840 --> 00:05:39,680 And he has made statements this week about Iran's willingness to 101 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:41,760 end the conflict under certain conditions. 102 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:45,040 But he's not a new figure installed by the war. 103 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:49,160 He did not come to power as a result of the military campaign. 104 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:52,960 Trump's characterization of him as a new, less radicalized 105 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:55,640 president is not supported by the timeline of events. 106 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:58,760 It also raises a more substantive question. 107 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:02,200 If Possesshkian is the moderate who is now apparently seeking A 108 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:06,200 ceasefire, and the United States has spent 34 days bombing Iran, 109 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:09,720 destroying its universities, its nuclear research centers, its 110 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:13,320 industrial infrastructure, its military command structure, and 111 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:16,280 killing nearly 2000 of its people, including hundreds of 112 00:06:16,280 --> 00:06:19,320 women and children, has the bombing produced a more moderate 113 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:21,040 Iranian leadership willing to deal? 114 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:24,720 Or has it produced a devastated country whose civilian president 115 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:27,640 is expressing willingness to stop a war he had no vote in 116 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:31,280 starting, while the IRGC and parliament are simultaneously 117 00:06:31,280 --> 00:06:34,200 threatening to set American troops on fire and legislating 118 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:37,400 Hormuz transit fees? The difference between those two 119 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:40,720 readings matters enormously for what a deal with Iran would 120 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,920 actually be worth. The factual situation is this. 121 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:47,120 Posseshkian did say on Tuesday that Iran possesses the 122 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:50,320 necessary will to mend this conflict, provided essential 123 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:53,800 conditions are met, particularly guarantees to prevent repetition 124 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:56,280 of the aggression. That statement was made to the 125 00:06:56,280 --> 00:06:58,680 European Council president in a phone call. 126 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:01,360 It contained no ceasefire request. 127 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:05,000 It stated A conditional willingness to end the war, not 128 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:07,920 a formal offer. Whether Trump characterized that 129 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:11,240 statement or a private message passed through an intermediary 130 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:14,360 as a ceasefire request, or whether he was describing 131 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:17,360 something that has no basis in what actually occurred, is 132 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:20,160 something the available public information cannot resolve. 133 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:23,400 What is certain is that Iran's government denied making any 134 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:27,120 ceasefire request and that the formulation Trump used, Iran's 135 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:30,520 new regime president, was factually inaccurate since 136 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:34,400 Possesskian has been president since July 2024 and is the same 137 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:36,720 person who held the office before the war began. 138 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:40,160 The speech offered one notable shift in the framing of the 139 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:43,200 Strait of Hormuz. Trump said that countries that 140 00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:46,360 depend on the Strait, not the United States, should take 141 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:50,040 responsibility for its security. He said those countries must 142 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:53,120 take care of that passage, grab it and cherish it. 143 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:57,240 He said the US does not need Iranian oil and does not need 144 00:07:57,240 --> 00:08:00,480 anything Iran. Has he told other nations to go 145 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:02,000 to the straight and just take it. 146 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:06,520 The phrase go and take it is a remarkable piece of strategic 147 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:09,600 communication. It simultaneously withdraws 148 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:12,320 American responsibility for reopening the straight and 149 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:14,880 delegates that tasked to the rest of the world the same 150 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,880 multilateral approach that the China Pakistan 5 Point 151 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:21,240 Initiative and the Islamabad consortium proposal have been 152 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:23,800 building toward. From the diplomatic side, Trump 153 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:27,160 is saying in the plainest possible terms that the Strait 154 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:29,720 of Hormuz is not America's problem to solve. 155 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:32,919 That is a dramatic departure from the posture that launched 156 00:08:32,919 --> 00:08:36,480 this war, which was explicitly premised on protecting American 157 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:39,559 allies and global oil flows from Iranian interference. 158 00:08:39,919 --> 00:08:42,360 The practical implication is significant. 159 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:45,320 If the United States is withdrawing from Hormo's 160 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,600 responsibility, and if that responsibility is falling to a 161 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:51,640 coalition of countries that use the Strait, then the post war 162 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:54,480 order in the Gulf will not be American dominated in the way 163 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:58,080 the pre war order was. France, the UK, China, India, 164 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:01,600 Saudi Arabia, Japan, all the countries that depend on Hormo's 165 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:05,160 passage will have to construct and fund and staff a security 166 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:08,080 architecture for the world's most important oil waterway. 167 00:09:08,560 --> 00:09:12,200 Whether they can do that without Iranian cooperation and whether 168 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:15,640 Iran will accept a multilateral arrangement it did not agree to 169 00:09:15,960 --> 00:09:18,440 are the questions the next chapter of this conflict will 170 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:22,600 need to answer, Oil markets read The speech is a sign the war 171 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:26,440 will not end quickly. Brent crude jumped nearly 4% in 172 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:30,280 the two hours following the address, rising back above $100 173 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:32,960 per barrel. A president who vows to hit Iran 174 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:36,280 extremely hard for two to three more weeks while offering no 175 00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:39,920 ceasefire terms, no deal framework and no diplomatic exit 176 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:43,120 pathway has not given markets any reason to price in a near 177 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:45,920 term resolution. Bank of America published a 178 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:49,160 forecast on Wednesday saying Brent crude would likely remain 179 00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:53,400 at approximately $100 per barrel for the rest of 2026 due to the 180 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:55,840 massive supply disruption triggered by the war. 181 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:59,960 That forecast full year. Elevated oil means the economic 182 00:09:59,960 --> 00:10:03,560 consequences of this conflict are not temporary distortions. 183 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:07,200 They are structural realities that will compound across every 184 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:11,120 sector that touches energy. US gas prices have now risen 185 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:14,760 above $4.00 per gallon for the first time since 2022. 186 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:18,120 The largest one day move in prices in more than two weeks 187 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:21,360 occurred on Wednesday alone, with regular gas jumping nearly 188 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:26,280 $0.05 to $4.06. JetBlue raised checked bag fees. 189 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:29,880 United Airlines began cutting lower profit routes due to 190 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:33,680 higher fuel costs. FedEx and UPS raised fuel 191 00:10:33,680 --> 00:10:37,720 surcharges. the US Postal Service is seeking regulatory 192 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:40,640 approval for an 8% package surcharge. 193 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:44,400 The war's cost to the everyday American consumer is no longer 194 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:47,480 an abstraction. It is the price of the pump, the 195 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:50,360 ticket price, the delivery fee and the grocery bill. 196 00:10:50,560 --> 00:10:54,160 Because higher fuel costs raise food transportation costs, which 197 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:58,240 raise food prices. The USS George HW Bush, the 198 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:00,840 third American aircraft carrier to be committed to this 199 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:04,840 conflict, deployed from Naval Station Norfolk on Tuesday along 200 00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:08,040 with three destroyers. The carrier strike group carries 201 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:11,800 more than 6000 sailors. the United States now has three 202 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:14,880 carrier strike groups either in or bound for the Middle East 203 00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:18,920 simultaneously, the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea, the 204 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:23,600 USS Tripoli's Amphibious Force carrying 3500 Marines, and now 205 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:28,160 the USS George HW Bush on route. The scale of American military 206 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:31,120 presence in the region is without precedent in modern 207 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:34,440 times for a sustained operation against a single country. 208 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:37,960 Maritime data firm Kaplur reported that almost 4 million 209 00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:41,000 barrels of crude per day transited the Bab Al Mandab in 210 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:44,840 March, up from 3 million to prior month, as Saudi Arabia 211 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:47,920 rerouted oil through its Trans Arabian pipeline to the red 212 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:50,520 seaport of Yambu. The world has found an 213 00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:53,120 improvised workaround to the Hormuz closure. 214 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:58,320 It is not found a solution. Hormuz handles 20% of global 215 00:11:58,320 --> 00:12:00,560 oil. No combination of alternative 216 00:12:00,560 --> 00:12:03,920 routes can absorb that volume. The gap between what Hormuz 217 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:07,000 handled before the war and what these routes can accommodate is 218 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:10,960 why oil remains above $100 and the Bank of America forecast it 219 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:13,960 stays there all year. The deployment of 1/3 carrier 220 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:17,240 simultaneous with a prime time presidential address does not 221 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:20,320 happen accidentally. It is a deliberate signal to 222 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:24,360 Iran, to US allies, and to the American public that despite 223 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:27,480 Trump's language about nearing completion, the United States is 224 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:30,840 building military capacity in the region, not drawing it down. 225 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:34,840 1/3 carrier is not needed to finish a war that is nearing 226 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:37,520 completion. It is needed if the next phase 227 00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:40,480 of operations requires significantly more firepower 228 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:43,520 than the first, either for cart island seizure, ground 229 00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:46,440 operations, or the kind of sustained air campaign that 230 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:48,360 destroying power plants would require. 231 00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:52,160 The simultaneous deployment of the George HW Bush and the 232 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:55,560 delivery of a speech about nearing completion represent 2 233 00:12:55,560 --> 00:12:58,640 contradictory signals from the same administration on the same 234 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:01,280 day. Trump's NATO comments, delivered 235 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:04,760 to The Telegraph newspaper and published on Wednesday, sent a 236 00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:07,400 secondary shockwave through the international community. 237 00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:10,640 Trump said he was strongly considering pulling the United 238 00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:14,000 States out of NATO, calling the alliance of Paper Tiger. 239 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:18,080 He cited the refusal of European allies to join the US Israeli 240 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:21,480 war on Iran and the reluctance to help police the Strait of 241 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:23,880 Hormuz. He also threatened to halt arms 242 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:26,840 supplies to Ukraine under the Pearl program if Europe did not 243 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:30,040 participate in ensuring shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a 244 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:33,040 threat that would link the Iran conflict directly to the war in 245 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:36,000 Ukraine in ways that could fundamentally reshape the entire 246 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:39,920 Western strategic posture. Secretary of State Rubio said 247 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:43,520 the administration would have to re examine NATO's value once the 248 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:46,400 Iran war ends. Senate leaders McConnell and 249 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:49,240 Coons issued a bipartisan statement defending the 250 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:51,840 alliance. Senate Minority Leader Schumer 251 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:54,120 said the Senate would not support withdrawal. 252 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:57,760 British Prime Minister Starmer called NATO the single most 253 00:13:57,760 --> 00:14:00,880 effective military alliance the world has ever seen. 254 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:04,280 But Starmer also offered a substantive development on the 255 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:08,080 Strait of Hormuz question. He announced that 35 countries 256 00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:10,560 have signed a statement committing to work together on 257 00:14:10,560 --> 00:14:12,840 restoring maritime security in the Strait. 258 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:16,040 He said British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper would 259 00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:19,280 lead a conference on the issue and that military planners from 260 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:22,320 multiple nations are already working on implementation plans 261 00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:25,440 for the post war period. This is the first concrete 262 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,960 multilateral framework for post war hormone security ever 263 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:33,360 publicly announced. 35 countries is a significant coalition. 264 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:36,600 It does not resolve the question of what happens to the straight 265 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:39,560 before the war ends. It is explicitly a post war 266 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:42,600 framework and it does nothing for the ships that cannot pass 267 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:45,120 Hormuz today. But it demonstrates that the 268 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,960 international community has not been passive in the face of the 269 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:51,160 Hormuz closure and that there is a structured, internationally 270 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:54,400 backed plan ready to be executed the moment the fighting stops. 271 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,800 And that plan, combined with Trump's speech telling nations 272 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:01,120 to go and take the straight themselves, suggests the post 273 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:04,400 war Hormuz architecture is being assembled even as the war 274 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:07,520 continues. Israel killed at least 50 people 275 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:11,440 in Lebanon within a 24 hour period on Wednesday, according 276 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:14,440 to Lebanese health officials. This is the first night of 277 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:17,800 Passover, the Jewish holiday that commemorates the liberation 278 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:20,640 of the Israelites from Egypt celebrated this year. 279 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:23,800 While Israel is conducting an active military campaign 280 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:27,520 simultaneously in Lebanon and Iran, the imagery of a people 281 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:30,240 celebrating freedom from oppression while conducting its 282 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:33,480 own military offensive is not lost on the international 283 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:36,680 community. Israeli air defenses intercepted 284 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:39,320 Iranian missiles on the first night of Passover. 285 00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:42,800 The Houthis fired their third barrage of ballistic missiles at 286 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:45,400 Israel since entering the war on Saturday. 287 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:49,640 The Houthi pace one barrage per day consistently without 288 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:52,840 escalating to mass attacks, suggests they are maintaining A 289 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:55,760 strategic pressure posture rather than expending their 290 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:59,120 capabilities all at once. A cruise missile struck A tanker 291 00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:02,800 contracted by state owned Qatar Energy off the Qatari coast. 292 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:07,240 The 21 member crew was evacuated safely and no casualties were 293 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:09,480 reported. The vessel was hit on its 294 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:12,320 starboard side. According to the UK's Maritime 295 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:16,120 Trade Operations, the strike on a Qatar Energy vessel is a 296 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:19,240 direct escalation in the targeting of Gulf state energy 297 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:21,960 assets and the specifically pointed one. 298 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:25,880 Qatar hosts the United States largest air base in the region 299 00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:29,080 at Al Udiyid. Qatar also shares the world's 300 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,320 largest natural gas field with Iran. 301 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:35,120 The relationship between Doha and Tehran has historically been 302 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:37,920 with coexistence and occasional cooperation. 303 00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:41,680 A strike on a vessel directly contracted to Qatar's state oil 304 00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:45,280 company is Iran delivering a message to Doha that shared gas 305 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:48,760 fields and historical friendship provide no immunity in this 306 00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:51,480 conflict? No one in the Gulf is outside 307 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:55,320 the targeting calculus. The speech did not mention the 308 00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:59,040 15 point peace plan. It did not mention Pakistan's 309 00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:02,560 role as intermediary. It did not mention the China 310 00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:05,200 Pakistan 5 point initiative from Tuesday. 311 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:09,400 It did not mention the 35 country maritime coalition that 312 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:12,400 Starmer announced. It did not mention Arachi's 313 00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:15,599 statement that Iran has not responded to any ceasefire 314 00:17:15,599 --> 00:17:18,720 proposal. It did not mention the Islamabad 315 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:21,359 talks or the consortium management proposal. 316 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:24,960 It offered no diplomatic pathway, no framework for 317 00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:28,160 negotiations, no conditions under which the United States 318 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:31,160 would consider stopping before its self defined objectives are 319 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:33,840 fully achieved. The speech was addressed to the 320 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:37,600 American people, not to Iran or the international community. 321 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:41,880 Its purpose was to justify the war, to claim progress, and to 322 00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:45,040 prepare the public for two to three more weeks of intensive 323 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:48,160 military action. There is a further dimension 324 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:50,840 worth noting. This was the first formal 325 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,960 presidential address to the American public since the war 326 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:58,960 began 34 days ago, 34 days of the costliest military operation 327 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:02,720 in decades, conducted without a prime time presidential address, 328 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:05,800 without formal congressional consultation, and with a 329 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:10,000 defeated War Powers Resolution. The American public received its 330 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:13,280 war updates through Truth Social posts and cable news. 331 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,480 The speech on Wednesday was the first time Trump spoke to the 332 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:19,360 country as a whole about why this war was being fought, what 333 00:18:19,360 --> 00:18:21,480 it had achieved and where it was going. 334 00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:24,760 Arriving in the 5th week with 13 Americans already dead. 335 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:28,080 What the speech revealed about Trump's strategic thinking is 336 00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:30,120 this. He believes the military 337 00:18:30,120 --> 00:18:33,720 objectives can be completed without a formal deal with Iran. 338 00:18:34,120 --> 00:18:37,400 He said the US would come back to do spot hits even after 339 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:39,840 leaving. He said countries that use the 340 00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:43,040 straight should go take it. He said Iran has been 341 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:45,920 essentially decimated and the hard part is done. 342 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:49,680 Taken together, those statements describe a strategy of exit by 343 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:53,240 exhaustion. the United States withdraws its main forces once 344 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:56,320 its specific military targets are achieved, leaves the 345 00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:59,320 hormones problem to others, and reserves the right to conduct 346 00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:03,120 future strikes if Iran rebuilds. That is not peace. 347 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:07,400 That is not a ceasefire. That is a new kind of permanent 348 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:10,400 low grade conflict in which America claims to be out while 349 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:13,040 retaining the option to strike whenever it chooses. 350 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:16,200 As Day 34 closes, Trump has spoken. 351 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:20,480 The speech did not end the war. It did not announce a deal. 352 00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:24,120 It promised more bombing for two to three weeks, delegated 353 00:19:24,120 --> 00:19:27,600 Horma's responsibility to other nations, claimed credit for 354 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:31,360 military achievements that are real, and gave markets no exit 355 00:19:31,360 --> 00:19:34,840 signal whatsoever. Iran denied the ceasefire claim, 356 00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:38,720 called it false and baseless, vowed to keep fighting and fired 357 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,240 missiles at Israel on the first night of Passover. 358 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:45,320 The third carrier is steaming toward the Middle East. 35 359 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:48,320 countries have pledged post war Horma security. 360 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:52,920 Gas is above $4.00. Oil is above 100. 361 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:56,280 Bank of America says it stays there all year. 362 00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,440 The April 6th deadline is 4 days away. 363 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,880 The speech is not resolved whether Trump will execute that 364 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:06,440 threat or extended 1/4 time. What it resolved is that the 365 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:09,840 concluding chapter of this war is now being written not with a 366 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:13,360 deal, not with a ceasefire, but with more bombing and an 367 00:20:13,360 --> 00:20:17,320 uncertain diplomatic end game, Trump said the US is on the cusp 368 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:20,640 of ending Iran sinister threat to America and the world. 369 00:20:21,120 --> 00:20:24,120 The cusp is where the war has been for the past two weeks. 370 00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:27,680 Whether the other side of that cusp leads to a settlement or to 371 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:30,840 a further escalation is the question that the next four days 372 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:35,000 will begin to answer. This has been episode 34 of Epic 373 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:39,840 Fury, the US Iran War podcast. 4 days till April 6th. 374 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:44,320 The speech has been delivered. The next move belongs to both 375 00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:47,120 sides. We will be back very soon.