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Trump says the war is very close
to over. 

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The White House says it feels 
good about prospects of a deal. 

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Pakistan's army chief Munir has 
flown to Tehran carrying a new 

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message from Washington. 
Pakistan's Prime Minister Sharif

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is on a four day tour of Saudi 
Arabia, Qatar and Turkey to 

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build regional support for a 
second round. 

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The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have 
hit fresh record highs, erasing 

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every war loss since February 
28th. 

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And a fire broke out overnight 
at Australia's largest oil 

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refinery, a facility that 
supplies half of the state of 

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Victoria's fuel, at the exact 
moment Australia is scrambling 

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to replace energy supply 
disrupted by the Strait of 

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Hormuz closure. 
It is Thursday, April 16th, 

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2026, day 48 of Operation Epic 
Fury. 

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The ceasefire expires in six 
days. 

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The second round of talks is 
coming. 

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No date and no venue yet 
confirmed, but the diplomatic 

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machinery is clearly moving at 
pace. 

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Pakistan's army chief is in 
Tehran. 

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Pakistan's Prime Minister is 
touring the Gulf. 

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This and P500 is at a record 
high and the world that this war

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has been reshaping for 48 days 
is showing new fracture lines 

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with every passing hour. 
The latest of which is an 

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Australian refinery fire that 
has nothing to do with the war 

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itself and everything to do with
what the war has done to global 

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energy supply margins. 
This is episode 48 of Epic Fury,

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the US Iran War podcast. 
Follow on Spotify and Apple 

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Podcast to stay with this story 
as it develops. 

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Let's get into it. 
Start with a diplomatic picture,

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because on Day 48, it is moving 
faster than the blockade that 

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was supposed to have replaced 
it. 

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Trump told Fox Business Network 
on Wednesday that the war is 

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very close to over. 
A statement that, coming from a 

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president who launched the 
operation 48 days ago and who 

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has described its progress in 
maximalist terms throughout, 

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carries more weight than a 
boast. 

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It is a signal that whatever the
back channel has been producing,

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Trump believes it is converging.
He told ABC News correspondent 

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Jonathan Karl that he's not 
thinking about extending the 

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ceasefire. 
He does not think it will be 

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necessary, he told Karl. 
I think you're going to be 

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watching an amazing two days 
ahead. 

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I really do. 
That is presidential forecasting

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of the most specific and 
consequential kind. 

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Trump is not predicting a 
general outcome. 

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He is predicting something 
remarkable in a defined and 

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short time frame. 
Whether that confidence is based

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on back channel signals from 
Tehran, on the phone call from 

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the right people 2 days ago, or 
on something else entirely is 

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not confirmed. 
What is confirmed is that the 

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White House told reporters on 
Wednesday that it feels good 

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about prospects of a deal and 
that any US delegation returning

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to talks would very likely go 
back to Islamabad. 

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The most significant diplomatic 
movement of Wednesday is 

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Moonier's flight to Tehran. 
Pakistan's army chief, the man 

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who brokered the ceasefire in 
its final hours, who ran the two

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phase proposal past Vance and 
Arachi simultaneously, who wore 

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combat fatigues for the Iranian 
delegation and a suit for the 

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Americans, flew to Tehran on 
Wednesday carrying a new message

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from Washington. 
His arrival in Iran is 

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remarkable for several reasons. 
Munir is a military officer, not

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a diplomat. 
When a military chief of the 

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stature of Pakistan's Field 
Marshall arrives in a foreign 

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capital to deliver a message, it
carries weight that a diplomatic

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note or a foreign ministry 
communication does not. 

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He is speaking directly and 
personally to the level of the 

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Iranian establishment that 
actually makes decisions, the 

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Revolutionary Guard leadership, 
the Supreme National Security 

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Council, and by extension, 
Common A himself. 

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His visit is the clearest signal
yet that the back channel 

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between Washington and Tehran, 
routed through Islamabad, is 

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active and operating at the 
highest level. 

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Whatever message Munir is 
carrying, whether it is a 

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modified version of the US final
offer, a proposed framework for 

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the second rounds agenda, or a 
specific ask about what Iran 

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needs to hear before sending its
delegation back, represents 

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Washington's most direct 
communication to Tehran's 

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decision makers since Vance left
the Serena H4 days ago. 

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Munir is not making a courtesy 
call, he is delivering terms. 

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Whether Iran's response 
constitutes the movement that 

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could make the second round 
productive where the first was 

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not is the question that the 
next 48 hours will answer. 

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Pakistan's Prime Minister 
Sharif, meanwhile, departed on a

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four day diplomatic tour of 
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, 

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the three countries that have 
been most active in a diplomatic

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ecosystem around the ceasefire, 
alongside Pakistan itself. 

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The visits are explicitly aimed 
at rallying support for a second

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round and, critically, at 
building the regional 

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architecture of a potential 
deal. 

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A permanent settlement of this 
conflict cannot be negotiated in

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a single bilateral channel 
between the US and Iran. 

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It requires regional buy in from
Gulf states that have been 

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bombed for 48 days and that 
needs security guarantees, From 

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Turkey, which has been publicly 
offering to mediate a ceasefire 

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extension of 45 to 60 days, and 
from Saudi Arabia, whose oil 

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infrastructure and regional 
political relationships are 

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central to whatever a post where
Middle East looks like. 

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These countries are not 
bystanders, they are parties to 

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the consequences and any deal 
that does not address their 

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security interests will be built
on an unstable foundation. 

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Sharif's tour is building the 
scaffolding around a second 

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Islamabad session that is not 
yet scheduled but is clearly 

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being planned in the assumption 
that it will happen and that it 

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needs regional support to hold. 
What is now known about how 

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close the first round actually 
got is more significant than the

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headline failure suggested. 
The Islamabad talks Wikipedia 

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entry drawing on multiple sided 
sources confirms that the teams 

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were able to agree on the main 
points of Iran's 10 point 

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ceasefire framework with 
exception of the Strait of 

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Hormuz and the Iranian nuclear 
program. 

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A source involved in the talks 
told Reuters the parties came 

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very close and were 80% there 
before running into decisions 

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that could not be settled on the
spot. 

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Arachi said Iran was inches away
from a memorandum of 

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understanding before 
encountering what he described 

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as maximalism, shifting goal 
posts and blockade. 

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Vance said the Iranians moved in
the US direction but did not 

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move far enough and that the 
Iranian negotiators had to 

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return to Tehran to get approval
for any final concessions. 

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Those three accounts, 80% there 
inches away, needed to go back 

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to Tehran. 
Paint a consistent picture of a 

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process that did not fail 
because both sides wanted it to 

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fail. 
It failed because the remaining 

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20% involved decisions that 
require authorization from 

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Common A and the Supreme 
National Security Council that 

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the Iranian delegation did not 
have in the room. 

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That is a profoundly different 
kind of failure from the failure

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of the pre war Geneva and Muscat
talks in February where both 

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sides were genuinely far apart 
and the process ended in 

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bombing. 
The Islamabad failure is the 

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failure of a process that got 
close, that agreed on most of 

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the points of a 10 point 
framework, that moved from 

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proximity to direct engagement, 
that generated 21 hours of 

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substantive discussion and 
installed at the final 

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authorization stage. 
The gap between 80% and 100% is 

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not a gap of will, it is a gap 
of process. 

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The Iranian delegation arrive in
Islamabad without full authority

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to make final concessions on the
nuclear question and on Hormuz 

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governance. 
When the talks got to those 

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questions, the delegation could 
not say yes, it can only say we 

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need to go back to Tehran. 
The structure of a second round 

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is therefore different from the 
structure of the 1st. 

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In the first round, the 
delegations were establishing 

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what was and was not possible in
the second round. 

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If Iran's delegation returns 
with the authority that the 

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first delegation did not have, 
the remaining 20% may close 

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quickly if it returns with the 
same authority it had the first 

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time. 
No final decision on nuclear, No

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final decision on Hormuz. 
The second round produces the 

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same result as the first. 
Munir's mission to Tehran is 

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specifically about ensuring that
does not happen. 

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He is trying to establish before
the delegations fly to Islamabad

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again whether the Iranian 
government is prepared to send a

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delegation with the authority to
close. 

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That is why Pakistan is now 
calling this the Islamabad 

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process, not a single event, but
an ongoing diplomatic track 

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where the second round is 
intended to cross the distance 

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the first identified. 
The blockade is producing 

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economic effects that are 
accelerating that process. 

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CENTCOM confirmed on Tuesday 
that the blockade has been fully

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implemented, with U.S. forces 
maintaining maritime superiority

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across the region. 
Admiral Brad Cooper, the CENTCOM

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commander, put the stakes in 
direct economic terms. 

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An estimated 90% of Iran's 
economy is fueled by 

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international trade by sea. 
That is the blockade. 

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Strategic logic in one sentence.
If that figure is accurate, a 

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fully enforced blockade of 
Iranian ports is not a military 

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inconvenience for Tehran. 
It is an economic existential 

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threat. 
In less than 36 hours of 

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implementation, the US had 
already turned back vessels and 

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established A credible 
enforcement posture. 

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U.S. 
Treasury Secretary Scott Besson 

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announced on Wednesday that the 
United States is now willing to 

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apply secondary sanctions on 
countries that buy Iranian oil 

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or take Tehran's money. 
That announcement extends the 

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blockades economic reach beyond 
the physical straight into the 

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financial architecture of 
Iranian oil trade globally. 

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Secondary sanctions are a 
powerful instrument. 

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They do not require the US Navy 
to intercept a ship. 

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They require the financial 
institutions, insurance 

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companies, and correspondent 
banks of any country trading 

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with Iran to choose between 
continuing that trade and 

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maintaining their access to the 
US financial system. 

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For most global institutions, 
that choice is not difficult. 

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the US dollar centrality to 
global trade means secondary 

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sanctions effectively deputize 
the entire global banking system

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as an enforcement mechanism for 
American foreign policy. 

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For China, which has been 
importing Iranian crude through 

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intermediary mechanisms and 
state to state arrangements that

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evade direct designations, 
secondary sanctions represent a 

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significant escalation of the 
economic threat China's state 

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banks and oil companies would 
face. 

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A stark choice, continue buying 
Iranian oil and lose access to 

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the US financial system, or stop
that pressure is one reason 

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Trump's announcement that China 
has agreed not to provide 

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weapons to Iran carries weight. 
Beijing's calculus throughout 

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this conflict has been to 
protect its economic interests 

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while publicly condemning the 
war. 

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Secondary sanctions make 
protecting those economic 

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00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:04,040
interests significantly more 
expensive. 

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Trump said on Wednesday that 
China has agreed not to transfer

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weapons to Iran, resolving one 
of the most significant open 

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questions of the past week. 
If that agreement holds, it 

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00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:17,480
removes a scenario that would 
have dramatically altered Iran's

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military position and created a 
direct US China confrontation at

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the worst possible moment for 
diplomacy. 

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00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:27,440
Iran's National Petrochemical 
Company announced on Wednesday 

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00:11:27,560 --> 00:11:30,800
that it has suspended exports of
petrochemical products until 

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00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:34,720
further notice, prioritizing 
domestic supply disrupted by US 

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00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:37,840
Israeli strikes between February
28th and April 8th. 

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That announcement is a direct 
economic consequence of the 

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blockade. 
Iran's petrochemical export 

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infrastructure, already damaged 
by the bombing campaign, is now 

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further constrained by the 
inability to ship products 

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through a straight that is 
either mine, blockaded or both. 

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For Iran's civilian economy, 
petrochemical suspension 

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compounds the already severe 
shortages that Posseshkian had 

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privately warned were 
approaching collapse before the 

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ceasefire was even announced. 
And then there is Geelong, 

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Australia. 
A fire broke out late Wednesday 

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night at the Viva Energy 
refinery in Geelong, 

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approximately 1 hour South of 
Melbourne. 

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The facility is the largest of 
Australia's 2 remaining oil 

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refineries, operating at a 
capacity of 120,000 barrels per 

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00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:25,480
day and supplying more than 50% 
of the state of Victoria's fuel.

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00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:28,600
State fire authorities said the 
blaze had been brought under 

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control by noon on Thursday. 
No injuries were reported and 

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00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,840
the cause of the fire and the 
extent of the damage were not 

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00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:39,760
immediately determined. 
The timing is acutely difficult.

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00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:44,080
Australia imports 80% of its 
fuel needs under normal 

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circumstances, an unusually high
level of import dependence for a

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00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:51,080
developed economy. 
Unlike the United States, which 

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has domestic oil production that
insulates it partially from 

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global supply disruptions, 
Australia is almost entirely 

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dependent on imported refined 
products. 

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The Viva Energy refinery in 
Geelong is one of only two 

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operational refineries left in 
the country when it produces a 

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capacity. 
It supplies more than 50% of 

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00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:13,760
Victoria's fuel needs and 
roughly 10% of Australia's 

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national supply. 
It's incapacitation, even 

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temporary, removes A meaningful 
buffer from a system that has 

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very little buffer left. 
Since the Strait of Hormuz was 

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00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:27,920
effectively closed in early 
March, Australia has been racing

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00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:30,920
to replace disrupted supply from
alternative sources. 

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00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:33,800
Prime Minister Albanese 
announced last month that the 

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00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:37,040
government would have the fuel 
excise and suspend a heavy Rd. 

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00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:39,840
user charge for three months to 
help households absorb the 

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00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:42,680
surgeon costs. 
In some parts of the country, 

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00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:45,560
panic buying had already doubled
local fuel demand. 

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The refinery fire is not caused 
by the Iran war, but it lands in

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00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:53,120
a country operating at the edge 
of its fuel security margins 

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00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:55,240
precisely because of the Iran 
war. 

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At a moment when the alternative
supply routes Australia needs 

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00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:00,800
are stretched, the shipping 
insurance costs that govern 

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00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:04,240
those routes are at historic 
highs and the domestic refinery 

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00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:07,360
capacity that would otherwise 
buffer supply disruption is now 

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00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:11,200
itself temporarily offline. 
Industry analyst Tenant Reed of 

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00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:14,360
the Australian Industry Group 
said Thursday is going to be a 

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00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:18,400
very bumpy and expensive few 
months for the households of 

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00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:21,080
Victoria. 
It will feel like the Iran war 

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00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:23,000
arrived on their doorstep 
overnight. 

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00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:27,160
That observation, bumpy an 
expensive, is a precise 

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00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:30,200
description of the global 
economic situation this war has 

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00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:33,160
created. 
The Geelong refinery fire is 1 

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00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:36,560
domestic local expression of a 
supply chain stress that began 

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00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:39,960
in the Strait of Hormuz 48 days 
ago and has since propagated 

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00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:43,480
outward through energy markets, 
insurance premiums, shipping 

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00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:46,840
route diversions, fertilizer 
supply chains, jet fuel 

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00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:50,080
availability concerns in Europe 
and now the production capacity 

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00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:53,080
of refineries on the other side 
of the planet from where the war

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00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:56,400
is being fought. 
The war's economic reach extends

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00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:58,520
considerably further than its 
bombs. 

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00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:02,920
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit fresh
record highs on Wednesday, 

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00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:05,920
erasing every war loss since 
February 28th. 

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00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:08,960
That is an extraordinary market 
signal. 

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00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:13,160
Stocks and oil prices are moving
in the same direction, both up, 

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00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:16,640
which is unusual and 
specifically reflects the dual 

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00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:19,600
pricing of a deal coming soon 
and energy markets remaining 

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00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:23,400
tight until it does. 
In normal conditions, rising oil

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00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:27,000
prices weigh on equities because
they raise input costs across 

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00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:29,520
the economy. 
The current situation has both 

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00:15:29,520 --> 00:15:33,240
rising because the market is 
simultaneously pricing energy 

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00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:36,000
scarcity now and economic 
recovery soon. 

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00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:40,160
The NASDAQ at a record high, 
while oil is near $100 a barrel 

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00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:43,560
and an Australian refinery is on
fire as a market saying three 

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00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:46,040
things. 
A deal is coming, the damage 

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00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:48,680
will be repaired, and the 
recovery will be stronger than 

288
00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:51,920
the disruption. 
The last time the S&P 500 made a

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00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:54,960
record high during an active 
U.S. military engagement was 

290
00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:58,000
during the periods of the Iraq 
war, when the market had decided

291
00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:00,840
the conflict was contained and 
the economy will be fine. 

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00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:04,320
Whether this moment resembles 
that one, or whether the market 

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00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,600
is mispricing A ceasefire that 
is more fragile than investors 

294
00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,720
believe is the question the next
six days will answer. 

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00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:13,840
The Senate voted for the fourth 
time this year to reject a 

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00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:17,080
measure that would have required
congressional approval for any 

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00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:19,280
future military action against 
Iran. 

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00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:22,240
Republicans blocked the war 
powers vote again. 

299
00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,800
The consistent failure of these 
measures is a political reality 

300
00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:27,760
that shapes the negotiating 
environment. 

301
00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:31,720
Trump is conducting this war and
this diplomacy with no binding 

302
00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:34,880
congressional constraint. 
That means any deal he reaches 

303
00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:37,440
with Iran does not require 
Senate ratification. 

304
00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:41,080
He can implement it by executive
agreement, which is faster and 

305
00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:43,280
politically cleaner than a 
treaty process. 

306
00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:47,240
But it also means any breakdown 
that leads to renewed military 

307
00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:50,400
action can proceed without the 
democratic deliberation that a 

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00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:52,520
formal declaration of war would 
require. 

309
00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,760
The political freedom that the 
war powers vote failure gives 

310
00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:59,200
Trump is both an asset in the 
final six days and a risk for 

311
00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:01,200
the durability of whatever comes
after them. 

312
00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:05,400
The petrochemical suspension is 
1 visible indicator of a broader

313
00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:07,760
collapse in Iran's economic 
position. 

314
00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:11,599
Iran's rial, its Internet 
infrastructure, its power grid, 

315
00:17:11,599 --> 00:17:15,000
its airport capacity, and its 
export revenues are all 

316
00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:19,880
compromised simultaneously. 
The IMF has projected a 6.1% 

317
00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:24,079
contraction of the Iranian 
economy in 2026, a figure that, 

318
00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:26,960
if it materializes, would 
represent an economic 

319
00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:28,960
contraction. 
Approaching the worst years of 

320
00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:32,120
the Iran Iraq War, Posseschkian 
is governing a country whose 

321
00:17:32,120 --> 00:17:36,280
civilian population has absorbed
48 days of bombing, A ceasefire 

322
00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:39,720
that has not produced full 
relief, a partial blockade mine,

323
00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:43,600
contaminated waters, suspended 
petrochemical exports and the 

324
00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:46,760
accumulated psychological weight
of a war that the government has

325
00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:49,440
simultaneously described as a 
historic victory. 

326
00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:53,240
The political pressure on Kamane
to deliver a deal that allows 

327
00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:56,920
Iran to present itself as having
achieved something is real and 

328
00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:59,960
accumulating. 
He cannot accept terms that look

329
00:17:59,960 --> 00:18:03,360
like capitulation to his 
domestic audience, but he also 

330
00:18:03,360 --> 00:18:06,840
cannot allow the Iranian economy
to continue deteriorating 

331
00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:10,400
indefinitely while the ceasefire
window closes and the blockade 

332
00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:12,480
tightens. 
The window that Munir is 

333
00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:15,240
attempting to open with his 
Tehran visit is the window 

334
00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:18,240
between those two constraints, a
deal that Iran can frame 

335
00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:21,080
domestically as protecting its 
sovereignty while giving the 

336
00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,760
United States enough on the 
nuclear question to declare 

337
00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:26,760
victory in Washington. 
Whether that window is wide 

338
00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:30,240
enough to drive a deal through 
before the ceasefire expires on 

339
00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:33,800
April 22nd is the central 
diplomatic question of Day 48, 

340
00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:36,760
and of every day that follows 
it, until either the second 

341
00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:39,320
round produces an agreement or 
the clock runs out. 

342
00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:43,280
Six days remain. 
Munir is in Tehran with a new 

343
00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:47,040
message from Washington. 
Sharif is touring the region. 

344
00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:50,200
Trump says something amazing is 
coming. 

345
00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:55,840
The S&P 500 believes him. 
Australia's largest refinery is 

346
00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:58,920
cooling down from a fire that 
struck at the worst possible 

347
00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:01,080
moment. 
And somewhere in Tehran, 

348
00:19:01,360 --> 00:19:04,840
Khamenei is deciding whether to 
send the Iranian delegation back

349
00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:08,200
to the Serena Hotel with the 
authority to close the remaining

350
00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:10,840
20%. 
If this podcast is helping you 

351
00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:14,200
make sense of what is happening,
please take 30 seconds to leave 

352
00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:16,840
a review on Spotify or Apple 
Podcasts. 

353
00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:20,200
It makes an enormous difference 
to how many people find the 

354
00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:23,360
show. 
This has been episode 48 of Epic

355
00:19:23,360 --> 00:19:29,120
Fury, the US Iran war podcast. 
Day 48, Six days left on the 

356
00:19:29,120 --> 00:19:32,480
ceasefire clock. 
Pakistan's army chief is in 

357
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:34,720
Tehran with a message from 
Washington. 

358
00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:39,080
Pakistan's Prime Minister is 
touring Saudi Arabia, Qatar and 

359
00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:42,440
Turkey. 
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are at 

360
00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,480
record highs. 
The Geelong refinery fire is 

361
00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:48,120
out, the damage still being 
assessed. 

362
00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:52,600
Trump says the war is very close
to over and something amazing is

363
00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:54,880
coming. 
The clock is running. 

364
00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:58,440
We will be back very soon with 
the next episode.