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A deal is inches away, according
to Iran. 

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It is largely negotiated, 
according to Trump. 

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And yet, as Monday morning 
arrived, nothing had been 

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signed, nothing had been 
announced, and the naval 

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blockade remained in place. 
It is Monday the 25th of May 

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2026, day 87 of Operation Epic 
Fury. 

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The ceasefire holds, the Strait 
of Hormuz remains closed, and 

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the world is watching a 
negotiation that appears 

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simultaneously to be on the 
verge of conclusion and 

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stubbornly unfinished. 
This is Epic Fury, the US Iran 

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war podcast. 
There is a great deal to work 

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through today. 
Let us get straight into it. 

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The headline of the past 24 
hours is not a deal signed. 

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It is a deal described, sketched
and debated, but not yet 

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formalized. 
On Saturday, President Trump 

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posted on Truth Social that an 
agreement to end the war and 

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reopen the Strait of Hormuz had 
been largely negotiated. 

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He said the final aspects and 
details were being discussed and

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that an announcement would come 
shortly. 

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That post sent global markets 
moving. 

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It generated immediate 
diplomatic activity across at 

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least eight capitals. 
It set off a chain of public 

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statements from Washington, Tel 
Aviv and Tehran that, taken 

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together, reveal both how close 
and how complicated this moment 

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actually is. 
Begin with what United States 

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officials said. 
Senior American officials, 

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speaking to multiple outlets on 
Sunday, confirmed that a 

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memorandum of understanding have
been agreed in principle. 

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The deal as described would 
unfold in two phases. 

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The first phase would extend the
existing ceasefire by 60 days 

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and reopen the Strait of Hormuz 
to commercial shipping. 

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During that 60 day window, Iran 
will be permitted to sell oil 

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freely on international markets.
the United States naval blockade

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of Iranian ports will be lifted,
though the timeline for that 

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lifting will be tied to 
performance. 

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The American position, as one 
official described it, was 

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relieved for performance. 
Iran wanted funds unfrozen 

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immediately. the United States 
said that would only happen 

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after tangible concessions have 
been delivered. 

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The second phase would address 
the harder questions. 

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Iran's nuclear program, its 
stockpile of highly enriched 

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uranium, and the long term 
security architecture of the 

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region would all be subject to 
formal negotiations during that 

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60 day period. 
The draft memorandum of 

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understanding includes A 
commitment from Iran never to 

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pursue nuclear weapons and to 
enter into negotiations over a 

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suspension of uranium enrichment
and the removal of its 

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stockpile. 
Crucially, however, no 

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requirement for Iran to export 
that stockpile before the deal 

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takes effect was included in the
memorandum. 

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That is a significant concession
to Iranian sensitivities and a 

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significant gap between what the
deal says and what both Israel 

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and some American officials have
been pushing for. 

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One senior United States 
official told reporters flatly 

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that no agreement will be signed
on Sunday. 

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The reason given was that the 
Iranian system did not move fast

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enough. 
That is a diplomatic 

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formulation. 
What it almost certainly means 

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is that the memorandum still 
required approval from Iran's 

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Supreme National Security 
Council and from Supreme Leader 

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Mojtaba Khamenei himself. 
The official added that 

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Washington understood Khamenei 
had endorsed the broad template 

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of the agreement. 
Iran offered no immediate 

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confirmation of that and 
provided no elaboration on what 

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an endorsement in principle 
actually meant in practice. 

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Iran's foreign minister, 
speaking on Sunday, took a 

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markedly different tone from the
American side. 

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He said that an agreement was 
just inches away. 

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But in the same statement, he 
criticized what he described as 

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maximalist demands from United 
States negotiators. 

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He said the two sides were 
close, but that the American 

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position on certain points 
remained and his 

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characterization unreasonable. 
Those remarks suggest that while

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the broad framework may have 
common A's blessing, the fine 

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print is still being contested. 
Iran's military spokesperson 

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Ibrahim al Fakar added another 
layer of complexity by posting 

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on social media an artificial 
intelligence generated image of 

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President Trump on his knees 
before Supreme Leader Mujtaba 

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Khamenei with the caption The 
end. 

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Trump, for his part, posted his 
own artificial intelligence 

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generated image, an Iranian 
naval vessel being destroyed by 

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United States drone, with the 
caption adios. 

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These were not the 
communications of two sides that

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had quietly concluded a 
diplomatic agreement. 

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They were the communications of 
two sides that were still, at 

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some level, engage in a contest 
over the narrative of who had 

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won this war. 
That contest matters more than 

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it might appear, because the 
internal politics on both sides 

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depend on the story told about 
what this deal means. 

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In Washington, Trump needs the 
deal to look like a decisive 

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American victory, a war that 
destroyed Iran's military 

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infrastructure into the nuclear 
threat and restored freedom of 

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navigation, all on American 
terms. 

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In Tehran, the supreme leader 
needs the deal to look like 

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resistance vindicated, a war 
that Iran survived, in which the

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Islamic Republic endured the 
most intensive military campaign

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against it in its history, and 
emerge with its government 

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intact, its sovereignty 
preserved, and a formal 

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agreement that lifted the 
blockade and allowed Iranian oil

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to flow again. 
Both of those narratives can 

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coexist in the same memorandum 
of understanding. 

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That is, in part why a deal 
appears achievable. 

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But the exact language of the 
document determines which 

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narrative is more credible, and 
that is why the fine print is 

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still being fought over. 
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, 

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speaking at a press conference 
in New Delhi on Sunday, said he 

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believed further news on the 
Iranian situation could come 

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later that day. 
It did not. 

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Rubio acknowledged that progress
had been made over the preceding

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48 hours. 
He said there was, in his words,

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a pretty solid thing on the 
table in terms of Iran's ability

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to open the Strait of Hormuz and
enter into a real significant 

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time limited negotiation on 
nuclear matters. 

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He said the potential agreement 
had strong support from Gulf 

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States and from the 
international community more 

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broadly. 
He added that President Trump 

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was not in a hurry and would not
make a bad agreement. 

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Those last two lines carry some 
weight. 

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They are a signal that the 
United States is not going to 

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move the final goal posts simply
to get a deal done quickly. 

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If the terms are not right, the 
blockade stays. 

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Trump reinforced that message 
separately. 

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He stated that the United States
would not rush into a deal and 

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that the American naval blockade
of Iranian ports would remain in

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full effect until the final 
agreement was reached and 

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signed. 
The role of outside actors in 

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getting to this point deserves 
attention. 

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Pakistani Army Chief Field 
Marshall Asim Munir travelled to

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Tehran on Friday and Saturday 
for direct talks with Iranian 

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President Massoud Posseshkian 
and senior officials. 

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Iran signalled afterwards that 
the conversations had produced 

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narrowing differences. 
Pakistan, which has served as 

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the primary mediator throughout 
the ceasefire period, appears to

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have played a significant role 
in bridging the gap between the 

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two sides over the final weeks. 
Qatari negotiators were also 

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involved. 
The Gulf states more broadly 

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have strong economic incentives 
to see the Strait of Hormuz open

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again. 
Their enthusiasm for a deal is 

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not simply diplomatic, it is 
financial, and it is urgent. 

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The Iranian news agency Tasneem,
which is close links to the 

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Islamic Revolutionary Guard 
Corps, published its own account

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of what the potential memorandum
of understanding contains. 

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According to Tasneem, shipping 
through the Strait of Hormuz 

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would return to pre war levels 
within 30 days of the agreement 

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taking effect. the United States
naval blockade will be 

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completely lifted within 30 
days. 

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At least part of Iran's frozen 
overseas funds would be released

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in the first phase. 
The deal would also include an 

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end to the war on all fronts, 
explicitly including Lebanon. 

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That last element is 
significant. 

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Lebanon had been a complicating 
factor in earlier rounds of 

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negotiation. the United States 
and Israel initially insisted 

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that the ceasefire with Iran did
not cover Lebanon, where a 

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separate ceasefire between 
Israel and Hezbollah had been 

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operating since the 16th of 
April. 

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Iran had pushed in previous 
rounds of talks for Lebanon to 

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be included in any final 
agreement. 

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Based on Tisnim's account and 
other reporting, Lebanon is now 

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incorporated into the framework.
Whether that holds through final

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ratification remains to be seen.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin 

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Netanyahu entered the public 
conversation on Sunday for the 

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first time in response to the 
emerging deal. 

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He posted on social media saying
that Iran would never have a 

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nuclear weapon. 
He said he had spoken with Trump

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and that they were in agreement 
that any final arrangement with 

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Iran must eliminate the nuclear 
danger. 

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He defined that as dismantling 
Iran's nuclear enrichment sites 

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and removing its enriched 
nuclear material from Iranian 

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territory. 
He also said Trump had 

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reaffirmed Israel's right to 
defend itself against threats on

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every front, including Lebanon. 
Netanyahu's statements served 

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multiple purposes. 
It was reassurance to his 

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domestic audience that Israel 
score security requirements had 

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not been negotiated away. 
It was a signal to Washington 

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that Israel expected the nuclear
issue to be resolved, not merely

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deferred. 
And it was implicitly a warning 

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that if the memorandum of 
understanding did not address 

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the nuclear file adequately in 
the second phase, Israel 

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retained a right to act 
unilaterally. 

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Netanyahu did not threaten to 
blow up the deal, but his 

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statement left no ambiguity 
about where Israel's red lines 

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remained. 
The economic dimension of this 

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moment is difficult to 
overstate. 

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The conflict has produced what 
multiple Gulf states described 

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as the worst global energy 
crisis in decades. 

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Oil prices have remained 
significantly elevated 

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throughout the ceasefire period.
The Strait of Hormuz closure has

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disrupted supply chains not just
in Europe and Asia, but in 

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countries far removed from the 
Middle East. 

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Myanmar, to cite one example 
reported over the weekend, had 

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found itself unable to receive 
fuel and fertilizer shipments 

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because the vessels carrying 
those supplies were trapped in 

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the Strait. 
The damage to global trade has 

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been both immediate and 
cumulative. 

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White House economic adviser 
Kevin Hassett told CBS on Sunday

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that prices would fall quickly 
after the Straight and Iran's 

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oil refineries reopened. 
Economists were more measured. 

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Most assessment suggested that 
while oil prices would drop upon

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an agreement being announced, 
the logistical backlog of 

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delayed and rerouted shipping 
would take weeks, possibly 

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months, to clear. 
The disruption to refinery 

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schedules, long term supply 
contracts and insurance markets 

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would not resolve overnight. 
Even the best case scenario, a 

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deal signed this week, the 
blockade lifted within 30 days. 

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Mines cleared from shipping 
lanes would produce a recovery 

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measured in months, not days. 
The Federal Reserve, watching 

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inflation run persistently above
target throughout the conflict, 

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has kept interest rates on hold.
Rate cut expectations that were 

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priced into markets before the 
war began have not returned. 

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Investors are now hoping that a 
sign agreement this week might 

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shift the calculus, but the Fed 
is given no indication it is 

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prepared to move quickly, 
regardless of diplomatic 

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developments away from 
negotiating table. 

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A brief military incident added 
tension to Sunday's proceedings.

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Iran's military claimed it had 
shot down an Israeli 

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surveillance drone operating 
over Iranian territory. 

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The Israeli Defense Forces said 
they were not familiar with any 

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such incident. 
The two accounts cannot both be 

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true. 
The disputed claim appear to be 

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a posture rather than a crisis, 
Iran demonstrating even in the 

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final hours of negotiation that 
it remained militarily active 

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and alert. 
The incident produced no 

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escalation. 
The ceasefire held, but it 

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00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:21,160
served as a reminder that the 
conflict has not yet formally 

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concluded and that the 
mechanisms which could reignite 

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it are still operational. 
The broader international 

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community expressed cautious 
encouragement. 

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The European Union and the 
United Kingdom both welcomed the

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progress reported over the 
weekend, without endorsing a 

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deal that had not yet been 
formally announced. 

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European governments, which have
watched the conflict depress 

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their own economies and 
complicate their energy security

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planning, have strong incentives
for an agreement. 

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Their public statements stopped 
well short of celebration, 

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reflecting an awareness that 
negotiations at this stage could

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still unravel. 
What is the state of play? 

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As Monday begins, A memorandum 
of understanding is reportedly 

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drafted. 
Its broad template has 

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reportedly received endorsement 
from Iran's supreme leader. 

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The two sides have agreed in 
principle on the shape of A2 

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phase arrangement that would 
open the straight, extend the 

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ceasefire, lift the blockade and
defer the harder nuclear 

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questions to a 60 day 
negotiating window. 

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Iran says it is inches away. the
United States says it is largely

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done. 
Neither side has signed it, 

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neither side has announced it, 
and at least some points of 

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language remain under dispute. 
The honest assessment is that 

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this deal is closer to 
completion than any previous 

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moment in this 87 day conflict 
is also not done. 

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Negotiations at this stage, with
this much at stake, in a region 

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with this much history of last 
minute collapse, cannot be 

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declared resolved until they 
are. 

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The world has watched potential 
agreements in the Middle East 

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dissolve before, sometimes 
within hours of being described 

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as imminent. 
The people most familiar with 

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these negotiations are the ones 
being most careful with their 

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language. 
Three things will determine what

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happens next. 
Whether Iran's Supreme National 

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Security Council formally 
approved the memorandum and 

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forwards it to Common A for 
ratification. 

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Whether the language on the 
nuclear file satisfies Israel 

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sufficiently that Netanyahu does
not act in ways that destabilize

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the agreement before it is 
signed. 

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And whether the Trump 
administration's principle of 

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relief for performance can be 
squared with Iran's demand for 

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immediate, tangible sanctions 
relief and asset releases before

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it begins opening the straight. 
If those three conditions are 

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met, the war that began on the 
28th of February ends not with a

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collapse or a military defeat, 
but with a diplomatic document. 

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If any of them fails, the 
blockade continues, the pressure

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mounts, and the question of 
whether the United States is 

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willing to return to active 
military operations to force a 

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conclusion comes back into 
focus. 

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The world is watching a 
negotiation that is almost done,

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almost is doing a great deal of 
work in that sentence. 

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Beyond the immediate diplomatic 
calculus, it is worth stepping 

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back to consider what 87 days of
this conflict is actually 

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produced. 
When Operation Epic Fury began 

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on the 28th of February, the 
stated objectives were to 

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dismantle Iran's missile 
capabilities, destroy its 

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nuclear program, degrade its 
naval forces, and ensure Iran 

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never obtained a nuclear weapon.
The military dimensions of those

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objectives have been 
substantially achieved. 

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Iran's air defenses were 
degraded in the opening days. 

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Its missile production 
infrastructure was struck 

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repeatedly. 
Its naval assets were largely 

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destroyed or rendered 
inoperable. 

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Its nuclear sites at Natan's 
Fordow, Isfahan, and Iraq were 

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hit with weapons specifically 
designed to destroy hardened 

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underground facilities. 
The scale of destruction to 

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Iran's military and industrial 
infrastructure has no modern 

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precedent outside of a declared 
Total War. 

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And yet the Islamic Republic has
not collapsed. 

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Mojtaba Khamenei remains, by all
available evidence, the supreme 

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Leader. 
The government in Tehran is 

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negotiating, not surrendering. 
The Iranian state apparatus, 

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though severely degraded, has 
not disintegrated. 

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The Iranian people, despite 
early protests and significant 

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internal discontent, did not 
mount. 

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00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:23,320
The revolutionary uprising that 
both Trump and Netanyahu had at 

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00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:27,120
various moments appeared to 
anticipate or encourage that 

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00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:29,160
outcome. 
A devastated but surviving 

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Iranian state seeking A 
negotiated exit is what is now 

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producing this memorandum of 
understanding. 

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That is not a failure of the 
military campaign. 

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It is simply the reality of what
military force can and cannot 

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achieve. 
It can destroy physical 

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infrastructure on a massive 
scale. 

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It cannot by itself determine 
how political systems respond, 

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how populations rally or 
fracture, or how governments 

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calculate their survival 
interests. 

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Iran calculated that it could 
absorb the military punishment 

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and negotiate from whatever 
position remained. 

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It has not been proven wrong. 
The deal now being finalized 

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reflects that reality. 
It is not the unconditional 

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00:17:10,599 --> 00:17:13,920
capitulation that some voices in
Washington and Tel Aviv had 

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hoped for. 
It is a framework that gives the

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United States its primary 
strategic objectives and into 

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active hostilities, A commitment
against nuclear weapons 

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00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:26,160
development and the reopening of
the Strait of Hormuz in exchange

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for lifting the blockade, 
releasing frozen assets, and 

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deferring the most demanding 
nuclear verification questions 

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to a subsequent negotiating 
round. 

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Whether that subsequent round 
produces A durable and 

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verifiable nuclear agreement, or
whether it becomes another cycle

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00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:44,000
of diplomatic progress and 
collapse, is a question that 

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cannot be answered from the 
opening terms of a memorandum of

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00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:49,080
understanding. 
It is a question that will 

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unfold over months and years. 
What is clear today, on Day 87, 

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is that the immediate question 
is whether the document gets 

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signed. 
The contours of the agreement 

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00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:03,760
appears set, the political will 
on both sides appears for now 

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00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:06,400
sufficient. 
The mediators have done their 

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00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:08,880
work. 
The only remaining question is 

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whether the final language can 
be agreed, the required 

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00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:14,560
approvals obtained, an 
announcement made before the 

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00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:17,680
fragile equilibrium of this 
ceasefire breaks down again. 

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There is one further element 
worth examining before closing 

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today's episode, and it concerns
the question of what a 

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successful deal would mean for 
the broader regional order that 

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emerges from this conflict. 
The Middle East that existed on 

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00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:34,000
the 27th of February, the day 
before the bombs fell, is gone. 

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The Iran that existed on that 
date no longer exists in the 

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00:18:37,360 --> 00:18:40,360
same form. 
Its military capacity is 

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dramatically reduced. 
It's proxy network, already 

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00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:47,240
weakened by years of Israeli 
operations against Hezbollah and

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00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:50,080
its own internal costs, has been
further degraded. 

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Its deterrent posture has been 
fundamentally altered. 

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00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:56,800
The regional states that 
sheltered under or accommodated 

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00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,040
Iranian influence will be 
recalibrating. 

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00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:01,920
Saudi Arabia, which was 
conducting its own quiet 

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00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:05,320
diplomacy with Tehran before the
war, now watch as a neighbor 

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00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:08,440
reduced to the status of a party
suing for an exit from a 

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00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:11,280
conflict it did not start and 
could not finish. 

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00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,800
The Gulf states, which suffered 
Iranian missile strikes on their

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00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:18,240
territory, now contemplate A 
strategic environment in which a

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00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:20,920
battered Iran agrees to 
arrangements it would have 

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00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:24,760
rejected outright a year ago. 
Iraq, Syria and Yemen all 

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00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:28,520
contain the debris of Iranian 
proxy investment forces and 

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00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:31,320
relationships that will take 
years to assess and longer to 

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00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,040
reconstruct. 
None of this resolves into a 

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00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,360
simple picture of regional 
stability. 

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00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:40,360
A weakened Iran is not 
necessarily a cooperative Iran. 

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00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,480
A regime that has survived 
military devastation by 

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00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,800
negotiating its way to the table
may yet reconstitute its 

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00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:50,280
capabilities and ambitions once 
sanctions ease and revenue flows

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00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:52,400
again. 
That is precisely why the 

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00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,920
nuclear verification provisions 
of the second phase negotiations

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00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:59,480
will matter so enormously. 
The memorandum of understanding,

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00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:03,400
if signed, is the beginning of a
diplomatic process, not the end 

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00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,080
of 1. 
The 60 days ahead, assuming a 

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00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:09,600
deal is reached, will be among 
the most consequential in recent

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00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,440
Middle Eastern history. 
They will determine whether the 

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commitment Iran makes on paper 
translates into verifiable 

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00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:18,920
actions on the ground. 
They will determine whether the 

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00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:22,120
United States can hold together 
an international coalition 

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00:20:22,360 --> 00:20:25,560
willing to reimpose pressure if 
Iran fails to deliver. 

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00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:29,000
And they will determine whether 
the region moves haltingly and 

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00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:32,760
imperfectly toward a new 
security equilibrium or whether 

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00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:36,000
it sets the stage for another 
cycle of escalation somewhere 

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00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,640
further down the road. 
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00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:42,000
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385
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And if you want the deeper 
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386
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:53,840
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episodes directly in Spotify or 
Apple Podcasts. 

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00:20:57,360 --> 00:21:00,360
Day 87 ends with a deal that is 
almost there. 

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00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,280
The world hopes that almost 
becomes done.