1
00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:19,560
Trump announced on Sunday that 
the United States will begin 

2
00:00:19,560 --> 00:00:22,280
guiding commercial ships through
the Strait of Hormuz starting 

3
00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:25,680
Monday, the 1st active U.S. 
military assertion of 

4
00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:29,200
navigational authority inside 
the straits since the war began.

5
00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:32,560
Central Command confirmed the 
operation will involve guided 

6
00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:36,840
missile destroyers, more than 
100 aircraft and 15,000 service 

7
00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:39,680
members. 
Iran immediately warned it is a 

8
00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:43,320
ceasefire violation. 
A tanker was hit by unknown 

9
00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,200
projectiles in the Strait within
hours of the announcement. 

10
00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:50,040
Iran has received the US written
response to its 14 point 

11
00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:53,840
proposal and is reviewing it. 
Trump said his representatives 

12
00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:56,560
are having very positive 
discussions with Iran. 

13
00:00:57,000 --> 00:01:01,680
American petrol prices have 
reached $4.45 a gallon, up 

14
00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:06,160
nearly 50% since February 28th 
in Iran's parliament is 

15
00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:09,760
preparing to pass a law formally
restricting which vessels may 

16
00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:15,160
transit the Strait. 
It is Monday, May 4th, 2026, day

17
00:01:15,160 --> 00:01:19,960
66 of Operation Epic Fury. 
American warships are moving 

18
00:01:19,960 --> 00:01:22,920
through the Strait of Hormuz 
today for the first time since 

19
00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:26,120
the war began. 
Iran says it is a ceasefire 

20
00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:29,200
violation. 
The tanker was hit in the Strait

21
00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:30,720
within hours of the 
announcement. 

22
00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:33,960
The proposal exchange between 
the two sides is now bi 

23
00:01:33,960 --> 00:01:37,320
directional through Pakistan and
the war has entered a new 

24
00:01:37,320 --> 00:01:41,120
operational phase simultaneously
with the most intensive written 

25
00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:44,400
diplomatic exchange of its 
entire 66 day duration. 

26
00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:50,160
This is episode 66 of Epic Fury,
the US Iran War podcast. 

27
00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:54,160
Follow on Spotify and Apple 
Podcast to stay with this story 

28
00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:56,600
as it develops. 
Let's get into it. 

29
00:01:57,120 --> 00:02:00,320
Begin with the Hormones guided 
transit operation because it is 

30
00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:03,000
the most significant U.S. 
military action since the 

31
00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:06,720
blockade began on April 13th and
because its operational and 

32
00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:09,520
diplomatic implications are 
immediate and still developing 

33
00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:11,960
as of this morning. 
Trump announced on Sunday 

34
00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:14,720
evening that the United States 
will begin guiding commercial 

35
00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:17,040
vessels through the Strait of 
Hormuz starting Monday, a 

36
00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:21,040
decision taken at the same time 
AUS written response to Iran's 

37
00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:23,880
proposal was being transmitted 
through Pakistan. 

38
00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:26,000
U.S. 
Central Command confirmed the 

39
00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:29,520
operational details guided 
missile destroyers, more than 

40
00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:33,760
100 aircraft and 15,000 service 
members in the broader Regional 

41
00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:36,840
Operational zone. 
AUS official clarified that the 

42
00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:39,920
initiative is not a convoy 
escort mission in the formal 

43
00:02:39,920 --> 00:02:43,320
naval sense, meaning US warships
will not be physically 

44
00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:46,160
surrounding individual 
commercial vessels and defending

45
00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:49,280
them against attack. 
The framing instead is that the 

46
00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:52,360
US military will be present in 
and around the straight in 

47
00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:55,160
significant force to enable 
commercial transit that the 

48
00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:58,680
Iranian IRGC has been 
obstructing since the war began.

49
00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:01,920
The practical distinction 
between guided transit and a 

50
00:03:01,920 --> 00:03:06,120
formal convoy escort is from the
perspective of the IRGC gunboat 

51
00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:09,920
commanders in the straight. 
Academic American warships are 

52
00:03:09,920 --> 00:03:13,400
moving through. 
American aircraft are overhead. 

53
00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:17,440
the US military is physically 
present in a waterway that Iran 

54
00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:20,800
claims to control. 
Iran's response came within 

55
00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:24,280
hours. 
Ibrahim Azizi, head the Iranian 

56
00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,600
parliament's National Security 
Commission, posted on social 

57
00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:30,880
media that any American 
interference in the new maritime

58
00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:34,120
regime of the Strait of Hormuz 
will be considered a violation 

59
00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:36,600
of the ceasefire. 
He added that the Strait of 

60
00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:39,400
Hormuz in the Persian Gulf will 
not be managed by Trump's 

61
00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:43,160
delusional posts, language that 
is notably contemptuous and is 

62
00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:46,160
not the language of a parliament
official trying to preserve 

63
00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:49,600
diplomatic space. 
That response from a senior 

64
00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:52,840
Iranian legislative figure, not 
from the military command, 

65
00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:56,320
reflects the institutional 
breadth of Iranian opposition to

66
00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:59,520
any US assertion of navigational
authority in the Strait. 

67
00:03:59,960 --> 00:04:02,920
Iran's parliament is 
simultaneously passing a new law

68
00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:06,120
that would formally codify which
vessels are permitted to transit

69
00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:08,880
the Strait and under what 
conditions, the legislative 

70
00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:11,960
answer to the American military 
assertion of navigational 

71
00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:13,720
rights. 
The combination of the 

72
00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:17,760
parliamentary law and the IRGCS 
operational control produces a 

73
00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:21,440
legal and military architecture 
that Iran can use to defend the 

74
00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:24,640
closure as a sovereign exercise 
rather than a belligerent act. 

75
00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:27,800
Within hours of Trump's 
announcement and as Ises public 

76
00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:31,320
warning, the United Kingdom 
Maritime Trade Operations Center

77
00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:34,280
reported that a vessel in the 
Strait of Hormuz had been hit by

78
00:04:34,280 --> 00:04:38,000
unknown projectiles. 
The UKMTO issued a security 

79
00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:41,560
alert for vessels in the area. 
All crew were reported safe. 

80
00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:45,080
The nature and origin of the 
projectiles were not immediately

81
00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:48,200
confirmed. 
Unknown projectiles is the UKMTO

82
00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:50,920
standard formulation for a 
strike that has not yet been 

83
00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:53,960
attributed to a specific actor 
or weapon system. 

84
00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:57,680
Whether the strike was an IRGC 
action in direct operational 

85
00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:00,560
response to Trump's guided 
transit announcement, a rapid 

86
00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:03,120
signal from the military 
organization that controls the 

87
00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:06,200
Straight about the consequences 
of the American assertion, or 

88
00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:09,280
whether it was a pre planned 
IRGC operation that happened to 

89
00:05:09,280 --> 00:05:12,680
coincide with the announcements.
Timing is not yet established as

90
00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:15,720
of this morning's recording. 
The attribution question matters

91
00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:18,880
significantly for how the 
incident is processed legally 

92
00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:21,640
and diplomatically. 
The sequencing, regardless of 

93
00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,320
attribution, tells its own 
operational story. 

94
00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:28,200
Trump announces guided transit 
starting Monday, Iran warns it 

95
00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:31,600
is a ceasefire violation, and a 
tanker is hit in the same 

96
00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:34,160
waterway within the same 
operational cycle. 

97
00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:37,560
That sequence, whatever its 
precise causal structure, 

98
00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:40,960
defines the physical reality in 
which the guided transit is 

99
00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:46,320
beginning today, commercial 
shipping operators watching that

100
00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:49,600
sequence announcement Iran's 
ceasefire violation warning 

101
00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:52,880
tanker hit, are making real time
decisions about whether to route

102
00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:55,320
vessels through the straight 
under American military 

103
00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:57,760
guidance, knowing that the 
threat is active and the 

104
00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:01,000
ceasefire characterization of 
any response from the US side is

105
00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:03,720
already disputed. 
The promise of US naval 

106
00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:07,880
protection is real. 
The risk of IRGC attack remains 

107
00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:10,000
real. 
The insurance premium for a 

108
00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:13,240
vessel transiting a waterway 
where a tanker was just hit by 

109
00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:17,040
unknown projectiles, regardless 
of who hit it or why, is not 

110
00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:20,400
going to fall overnight. 
The guided transit operation is 

111
00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:23,720
the United States asserting its 
navigational authority in the 

112
00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:27,360
straight by physical presence. 
The tanker strike within hours 

113
00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:30,280
of the announcement is the 
immediate real world test of 

114
00:06:30,280 --> 00:06:33,120
whether that authority can be 
maintained without producing a 

115
00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:36,360
direct IRGCUS Navy military 
engagement. 

116
00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:39,680
The guided transit announcement 
is the United States asserting, 

117
00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:42,520
through naval force rather than 
diplomatic language, the 

118
00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:46,400
navigational rights position it 
has maintained throughout the 66

119
00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:49,520
days of this conflict. 
It is the physical execution of 

120
00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:52,440
what Trump has been saying for 
weeks, that the Strait is an 

121
00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:55,840
international waterway, that 
Iran has no legal authority to 

122
00:06:55,840 --> 00:06:59,040
close it, that the US military 
will ensure its operation as 

123
00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:01,920
such. 
Moving warships through is not 

124
00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:06,960
saying it, it is doing it. 
The operational scale, 15,000 

125
00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:10,320
service members more than 100 
aircraft guided missile 

126
00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:13,560
destroyers is not a token 
assertion of navigational 

127
00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:16,160
rights. 
It is a force that makes IRGC 

128
00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:19,680
interference with a guided 
transit into a direct military 

129
00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:23,160
confrontation with the United 
States Navy, rather than an act 

130
00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:27,000
against a commercial tanker. 
The IRGC has been able to fire 

131
00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:30,480
on tankers carrying no national 
military backing because the 

132
00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:34,200
risk calculation was manageable.
1 gunboat against one commercial

133
00:07:34,200 --> 00:07:37,880
vessel, A tanker moving through 
the Strait under the operational

134
00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:41,320
umbrella of 15,000 American 
service members and more than 

135
00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:44,920
100 aircraft is a categorically 
different risk calculation. 

136
00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:48,880
Every IRGC commander in the 
Strait must now calculate 

137
00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:51,600
whether the cost of interfering 
with a vessel transiting under 

138
00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:55,560
American military guidance is a 
cost the IRGC can absorb. 

139
00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:58,600
At the same time. 
The distinction the US official 

140
00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:02,160
drew Guided transit, not a 
convoy escort mission, is 

141
00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:05,480
diplomatically deliberate. 
A formal convoy escort mission 

142
00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:09,200
would explicitly assert AUS 
military obligation to defend 

143
00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:10,960
commercial vessels against 
attack. 

144
00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:14,880
That framing would be a formal 
act of war against Iran in the 

145
00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:19,160
event of IRGC interference. 
Not calling it a convoy escort 

146
00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:22,200
preserves the semantic space for
the ceasefire to technically 

147
00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:25,280
remain in force even as American
warships move through the 

148
00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:28,160
waterway. 
The distinction may not survive 

149
00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:32,520
the next IRGC gunboat encounter,
but it is the framing the 

150
00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:36,039
administration has chosen and it
reflects the same dual register 

151
00:08:36,039 --> 00:08:38,559
logic that has defined this 
entire conflict. 

152
00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:42,480
Maximum military pressure, 
Minimum formal war declaration. 

153
00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:46,240
Turn now to the proposal 
exchange because the US response

154
00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:50,000
to Iran's 14 point proposal has 
been conveyed through Pakistan 

155
00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:54,040
and the diplomatic exchange is 
now for the first time in the 66

156
00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:56,520
day conflict genuinely by 
directional. 

157
00:08:57,000 --> 00:09:00,360
Iran's state media confirmed on 
Sunday that Washington had sent 

158
00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:04,280
a written reply to Iran's 14 
point proposal by a Pakistani 

159
00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:06,920
intermediaries. 
Iran's foreign ministry 

160
00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:10,960
spokesperson Esmail Baghiya said
Iran is reviewing the US 

161
00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:13,120
response. 
There was no immediate 

162
00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:16,360
confirmation of the contents 
from Washington or Islamabad. 

163
00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:19,480
The absence of a public US 
confirmation is itself 

164
00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:21,840
consistent with the 
administration's approach to the

165
00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:24,200
private track. 
Trump confirmed it exists on 

166
00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:28,160
Thursday, declined to describe 
its contents and said only he 

167
00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:30,360
and a handful of others know the
status. 

168
00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:33,600
The fact that the US responded 
in riding through the same 

169
00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:36,920
Pakistani channel through which 
Iran submitted its proposal is 

170
00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:40,440
structurally significant. 
Throughout most of this process,

171
00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:43,760
the communication pattern has 
been Iran sends a proposal, 

172
00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:47,640
Washington rejects it publicly. 
Iran sends a revised proposal. 

173
00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:49,800
Washington says it is not 
satisfying. 

174
00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:55,040
That is A1 directional exchange.
Iran proposes the US responds 

175
00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:58,000
through the media. 
AUS written response conveyed 

176
00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:00,760
through Pakistan transforms the 
structure. 

177
00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:03,920
Both sides are now sending 
written documents through the 

178
00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:07,360
same intermediary. 
Pakistan is carrying both 

179
00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:10,880
papers, The bilateral written 
exchange that professional 

180
00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:13,440
mediators have been trying to 
establish for weeks. 

181
00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:16,800
The structure in which both 
parties can respond to specific 

182
00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:20,280
points, adjust language, and 
build toward a shared framework 

183
00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:23,720
is now operational. 
Whether the US response accepts 

184
00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:28,160
any of Iran's 14 points, adjust 
the US nine point framework or 

185
00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:31,520
simply restates the American 
position in written form is not 

186
00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:35,200
yet known publicly, but the 
structure of a written exchange 

187
00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:37,760
now exists. 
Trump's own framing of the 

188
00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:41,560
diplomatic state on Sunday was 
more positive than any statement

189
00:10:41,560 --> 00:10:43,760
he has made since the ceasefire 
extension. 

190
00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:47,240
He told reporters that his 
representatives are having very 

191
00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:50,560
positive discussions with Iran. 
That is not his usual 

192
00:10:50,560 --> 00:10:53,800
formulation of the Iran talks. 
He has been saying Iran wants to

193
00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:56,920
make a deal, but he is not 
satisfied that they have not 

194
00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:00,720
paid enough for 47 years, that 
the military is ready to go. 

195
00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:04,320
Very positive discussions is 
different language, and 

196
00:11:04,320 --> 00:11:07,200
different language from Trump in
this context should be read as a

197
00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:10,800
signal, not a slip. 
Whether it reflects substantive 

198
00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:13,480
movement in the private track, 
he confirmed on Thursday, the 

199
00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:17,040
one only he and a handful of 
others know about, or whether it

200
00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:19,880
is the public surface of a 
process that remains stalled on 

201
00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:22,840
the nuclear sequencing question 
cannot be determined from 

202
00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:25,560
outside The West Wing. 
But the language has shifted 

203
00:11:25,560 --> 00:11:28,960
toward the positive at exactly 
the moment the US is asserting 

204
00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:32,000
navigational authority in the 
Strait and the written exchange 

205
00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:35,600
is flowing in both directions. 
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister 

206
00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:38,720
Khazam Gurab Abadi said on 
Saturday that the ball is in 

207
00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,840
America's court to choose the 
path of diplomacy or 

208
00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:45,640
confrontation. 
That formulation, diplomacy or 

209
00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:48,960
confrontation. 
America's choice is Iran framing

210
00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:52,120
itself as the reactive party in 
the diplomatic exchange. 

211
00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:55,480
Iran has submitted its 14 point 
proposal. 

212
00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:59,240
Iran is now reviewing AUS 
written response to it. 

213
00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:02,640
From Tehran's perspective, 
Washington is the one that must 

214
00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:05,160
decide what direction the 
negotiations take. 

215
00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:08,280
Iran is waiting. 
America is choosing. 

216
00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:11,920
Whether Iran's characterization 
of the dynamic is accurate 

217
00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:15,360
depends entirely on what the US 
written response says. 

218
00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:18,800
If it moved the American 
position toward Iran's framing, 

219
00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:22,320
acknowledging nuclear talks as a
later stage consistent with 

220
00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:25,760
Iran's two stage structure, then
Tehran's ball in America's court

221
00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:28,320
formulation might reflect A 
genuine convergence. 

222
00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:31,640
If the US response simply 
restated the position that 

223
00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:35,160
nuclear commitments must precede
any war ending arrangement, then

224
00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:38,480
the ball is not in America's 
court in any meaningful sense. 

225
00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:44,200
It is back at the same impasse. 
American petrol prices, at $4.45

226
00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:47,640
per gallon, are the most visible
daily domestic measure of what 

227
00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:50,360
the Iran war is costing ordinary
Americans. 

228
00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:54,920
That is a rise of nearly 50% 
since February 28th, when the 

229
00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:58,480
pre war average was 
approximately $3.01 per gallon. 

230
00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:03,720
A 50% increase in petrol prices 
sustained over 66 days is not a 

231
00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:07,160
temporary supply disruption that
consumers absorb and forget. 

232
00:13:07,560 --> 00:13:10,480
It is a compounding cost 
embedded into every fill up, 

233
00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:14,000
every delivery fee, every 
airline ticket, every heating 

234
00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:16,600
bill, every food price that 
reflects the cost of 

235
00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:19,680
transporting goods. 
It accumulates as a background 

236
00:13:19,680 --> 00:13:23,000
inflation pressure on every 
economic decision, every 

237
00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:26,280
American household makes. 
Trump acknowledged this directly

238
00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:29,880
on April 30th when he told the 
public to expect higher prices 

239
00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:33,240
for a while and said the trade 
off is Iran without a nuclear 

240
00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:35,760
weapon. 
That framing asks the American 

241
00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:40,080
consumer to accept 50% higher 
petrol prices as the price of a 

242
00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:42,240
strategic foreign policy 
objective. 

243
00:13:42,680 --> 00:13:45,840
The trade off was politically 
acceptable in the early weeks of

244
00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:48,760
the war when the conflict 
appeared to be moving quickly. 

245
00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:52,960
It becomes progressively harder 
to sustain as the while extends 

246
00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:55,440
into a third month with no 
defined endpoint. 

247
00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:59,040
The guided transit announcement 
is, among its other functions, a

248
00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:02,920
domestic political gesture. 
If American warships are in a 

249
00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:06,240
Strait of Hormuz today enabling 
commercial shipping to transit, 

250
00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:09,520
and if that transit reduces the 
supply disruption that has been 

251
00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:12,760
elevating oil prices, then Trump
can point to a visible and 

252
00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:16,200
immediate consequence of the 
military action lower petrol 

253
00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:19,400
prices beginning as evidence 
that the strategy is producing 

254
00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:21,520
results. 
Whether the guided transit 

255
00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:25,000
actually begins to reduce prices
depends on three simultaneous 

256
00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:27,200
conditions. 
Commercial vessels willing to 

257
00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:31,160
transit under U.S. military 
guidance, the IRGC choosing not 

258
00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:34,320
to attack those vessels and risk
a direct engagement with the US 

259
00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:37,240
Navy, and the mines in the 
Strait having been sufficiently 

260
00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:39,880
cleared to make transit 
commercially insurable at 

261
00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:42,840
reasonable rates. 
All three are open questions as 

262
00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:45,360
of Monday morning, and the 
tanker hit by unknown 

263
00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:47,640
projectiles within hours of the 
announcement. 

264
00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:50,280
Confirmation is a signal about 
Condition 2. 

265
00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:53,760
Iran's parliament is preparing 
to pass a law establishing a 

266
00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:57,280
formal domestic legal regime for
Strait of Hormuz Transit. 

267
00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:01,200
The law, as reported by Iranian 
state broadcaster Press TV, 

268
00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:04,400
would place formal legislative 
restrictions on which vessels 

269
00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:06,760
are permitted to pass through 
the Strait and under what 

270
00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,120
conditions. 
This is a significant 

271
00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:12,200
institutional development that 
parallels the guided Transit 

272
00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:13,920
announcement on the American 
side. 

273
00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:17,240
The combination of this 
parliamentary legislation and 

274
00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:21,160
the Irgc's existing operational 
control of the waterway creates 

275
00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:24,520
a dual legal and military 
architecture for Iran's hormones

276
00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:27,760
position. 
Militarily, the IRGC controls 

277
00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:31,320
access through mine placement, 
gunboat presence, the seizure of

278
00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:34,680
vessels, and the threat of force
against non compliant ships. 

279
00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:38,160
Legally, the new parliamentary 
law would give the selective 

280
00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:41,560
opening or continued restriction
of the straight the domestic 

281
00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:44,800
legal character of a sovereign 
maritime regulatory regime 

282
00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:47,800
rather than the character of an 
armed blockade imposed by a 

283
00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:49,960
state engaged in a military 
conflict. 

284
00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:53,640
Whether International Maritime 
law, the UN Convention on the 

285
00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:57,480
Law of the Sea, or any relevant 
treaty framework recognizes that

286
00:15:57,480 --> 00:16:00,840
Iranian domestic legal regime is
a separate and unresolved 

287
00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:03,480
question. 
International law does not, in 

288
00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:07,080
general permit unilateral 
national restriction of transit 

289
00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:09,640
passage through recognized 
international straits. 

290
00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:13,040
But having a parliamentary law 
on the books creates a different

291
00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:16,480
political presentation for Iran 
internationally, particularly 

292
00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:19,680
with non Western audiences who 
are sympathetic to framing 

293
00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:22,720
Iranian Hormuz control as 
sovereignty rather than as 

294
00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:25,480
belligerence. 
China, Russia, and most of the 

295
00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:28,280
global S have been more 
receptive to that sovereignty 

296
00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:30,480
framing than Western governments
throughout the war. 

297
00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:33,920
The parliamentary law is Iran 
building the domestic and 

298
00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:36,280
international legal 
infrastructure of the Hormuz 

299
00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:38,960
sovereignty argument. 
It has been advancing since the 

300
00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:42,440
war's first day, moving it from 
a military position to a 

301
00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:47,880
legislative 1. 
Lebanon deteriorated further on 

302
00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:50,640
Sunday. 
The Israeli military issued 

303
00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:53,840
evacuation warnings to residents
of 11 villages in southern 

304
00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:56,800
Lebanon on Sunday before 
conducting strikes on 

305
00:16:56,800 --> 00:17:00,360
approximately 70 military 
structures and 50 Hezbollah 

306
00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:03,680
infrastructure sites. 
Lebanese state media reported an

307
00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:07,079
Israeli strike on a mosque in 
the village of Samia that killed

308
00:17:07,079 --> 00:17:09,599
three people. 
Hezbollah said it attacked 

309
00:17:09,599 --> 00:17:12,760
Israeli troops and vehicles near
the town of Kantara. 

310
00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:17,520
The Lebanese death toll since 
March 2nd has now exceeded 2600 

311
00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:20,200
people. 
Israel is conducting its most 

312
00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:23,599
intensive Lebanese operation 
since the ceasefire extension 

313
00:17:23,599 --> 00:17:26,280
was announced. 
Iran has consistently cited 

314
00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:29,520
continued Israeli operations in 
Lebanon as a reason nuclear 

315
00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:32,520
negotiations cannot proceed. 
The Lebanon Front is now 

316
00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:35,160
producing the kind of daily 
casualties and civilian 

317
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:38,960
evacuations that make Iran's 30 
day timeline argument internally

318
00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:41,800
persuasive, even if it is 
externally inconvenient for the 

319
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:45,080
diplomatic process. 
Iran published civilian damage 

320
00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:48,760
figures from the war on Sunday. 
The head of Iran's Basage 

321
00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:51,720
Construction Organization, 
Brigadier General Mohammad 

322
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:55,920
Zarai, said approximately 60,500
housing units were damaged 

323
00:17:55,920 --> 00:18:00,000
across Tehran, Isfahan and calm 
during the US Israeli strikes. 

324
00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:06,280
46,000 in Tehran alone, 12,300 
in Isfahan and 2200 in calm. 

325
00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:10,120
More than 12,000 of those units 
have been repaired by volunteer 

326
00:18:10,120 --> 00:18:13,160
groups as of Sunday. 
Those figures are the most 

327
00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:16,520
specific quantification of war 
damage the Iranian government 

328
00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:19,400
has provided, and they are being
released on the same weekend 

329
00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:22,760
that Iran is reviewing AUS 
counter proposal and the United 

330
00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,080
States is announcing A hormones 
guided transit. 

331
00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,720
The timing is deliberate. 
Iran is placing the human and 

332
00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,760
material cost of the war on the 
public record at the precise 

333
00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:34,680
moment when the diplomatic 
process is producing its most 

334
00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:39,040
active written proposal. 
Exchange 60,500 damaged homes in

335
00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:41,680
three Iranian cities is the 
civilian dimension of the 

336
00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:45,280
conflict that Iran's government 
wants Washington, Europe and the

337
00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:47,800
world to hold in mind. 
While the nuclear and Hormuz 

338
00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:50,560
sequencing questions are being 
worked through written proposals

339
00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:54,880
and Pakistani intermediaries at 
the 66th day of Operation Epic 

340
00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:58,560
Fury, more is happening 
simultaneously than at any point

341
00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:00,840
in the conflict since the 
opening night of strikes. 

342
00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:04,240
American warships are moving 
through the Strait of Hormuz 

343
00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:07,680
while Iran's parliament passes a
law to govern who transits it. 

344
00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:11,360
A tanker has been hit. 
Written proposals are flowing in

345
00:19:11,360 --> 00:19:13,240
both directions through 
Pakistan. 

346
00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:16,320
Trump says the discussions are 
very positive. 

347
00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:21,480
Iran says the ball is in 
America's court. 15,000 US 

348
00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:24,120
service members are in the 
operational zone. 

349
00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:28,400
Petrol is 445. 
Lebanon is being evacuated 

350
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,320
village by village under a 
ceasefire that Israel and 

351
00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:33,720
Hezbollah both continue to 
violate daily. 

352
00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:36,720
And somewhere in the private 
track that Trump confirmed on 

353
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:40,200
Thursday, the one only he and a 
handful of others understand, 

354
00:19:40,360 --> 00:19:42,880
the actual shape of this war's 
end is being formed in 

355
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:45,840
communications and negotiations 
that the public record has not 

356
00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:49,360
yet captured and may not capture
until the moment they produce an

357
00:19:49,360 --> 00:19:51,680
announcement. 
If this podcast is helping you 

358
00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:55,000
make sense of what's happening, 
take 2 seconds to leave a five 

359
00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:57,600
star rating on Spotify or Apple 
Podcasts. 

360
00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:01,200
It makes a huge difference to 
how many people find the show. 

361
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:04,040
And if you want the deeper 
breakdown of what's really going

362
00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:06,840
on and where this is heading, 
you can unlock the premium 

363
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:09,960
episodes directly in Spotify or 
Apple Podcasts. 

364
00:20:10,360 --> 00:20:15,720
This has been episode 66 of Epic
Fury, the US Iran war podcast. 

365
00:20:16,120 --> 00:20:19,160
American warships are in the 
Strait of Hormuz today. 

366
00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:24,720
Iran says ceasefire violation 
tanker hit US responded to 

367
00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:27,600
Iran's 14 point proposal through
Pakistan. 

368
00:20:28,120 --> 00:20:33,120
Trump very positive discussions.
Iran ball in America's court 

369
00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:37,360
15,000. 
US service members petrol at 

370
00:20:37,360 --> 00:20:40,840
4:45. 
Parliament passing a Hormuz law.

371
00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:46,840
Lebanon evacuating 11 villages. 
The 66th day of a war that shows

372
00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:51,080
within the same 24 hours every 
sign of moving toward resolution

373
00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:54,640
and every sign of escalating 
further simultaneously from the 

374
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,440
same governments in the same 
Strait of Hormuz. 

375
00:20:57,840 --> 00:20:59,560
We will be back very soon.
