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Iran's president wrote an open 
letter to the American people 

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asking whose interests this war 
is serving, a leaked exchange 

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revealed. 
He warned the IRGC chief that 

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without a ceasefire, Iran's 
economy would collapse within 

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three weeks, and the IRGC chief 
told him he could not be 

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involved in negotiations because
he would give too much away, 

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Posseshkian reportedly told 
aides. 

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He feels like a hostage. 
And the United Arab Emirates 

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arrested dozens of money 
changers linked to Iran's 

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Revolutionary Guards, severing 1
of Tehran's most critical 

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financial life lines at 
precisely the moment the 

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civilian government is warning 
of economic collapse. 

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It is Friday, April 3rd, 2026, 
day 35 of Operation Epic Fury. 

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The April 6th deadline is 3 days
away and inside Iran, a power 

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struggle between the civilian 
president and the military 

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command is emerging as the most 
consequential domestic story of 

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the entire conflict. 
This is episode 35 of Epic Fury,

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the US Iran War podcast. 
Follow on Spotify and Apple 

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Podcast to stay with this story 
as it develops. 

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Let's get into it. 
Start with the open letter, 

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Because Masood Posseschian 
addressing the American people 

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directly is an extraordinary act
for a sitting head of state 

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whose country is at war with the
United States. 

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No Iranian president has done 
anything like it in the history 

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of the conflict between the two 
countries. 

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Posseschian posted the letter on
social media on Wednesday. 

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It was addressed to the people 
of the United States and to all 

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those who, amid a flood of 
distortions and manufactured 

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narratives, continue to seek the
truth. 

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He asked Americans a direct 
question. 

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Exactly which of the American 
people's interests are truly 

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being served by this war? 
He described Iran as a 

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civilization that has never in 
its modern history chosen the 

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path of aggression, expansion, 
colonialism or domination. 

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He said Iran had been attacked 
twice while its negotiators were

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taking part in multilateral 
nuclear talks, once in the June 

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20, 2512 Day War and again on 
February 28th when Operation 

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Epic Fury began. 
He said the Iranian people 

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harbor no enmity toward the 
American people, the European 

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people, or their neighbors. 
He directed a specific challenge

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at the America First framing 
that Trump has invoked 

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throughout this war to justify 
both the military campaign and 

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the economic sacrifices it is 
imposing on American consumers. 

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He asked, is America First truly
among the priorities of the US 

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government today? 
He accused Israel of 

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manufacturing an Iranian threat 
to divert global attention from 

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Palestinian issues and said the 
United States had entered this 

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war as a proxy for Israel. 
He invited Americans to look 

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beyond the machinery of 
misinformation and speak with 

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those who have visited Iran or 
with a many Iranian immigrants 

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who teach at American 
universities and contribute to 

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American scientific and cultural
life. 

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The letter is remarkable for 
several reasons. 

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It is written not to Trump, not 
to Congress, not to the 

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international community, but to 
ordinary Americans. 

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It is an appeal to the public 
over the head of the government,

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a strategy with a long history 
in diplomatic and wartime 

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communication, but one that 
carries particular resonance in 

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a country where 35% of the 
population now opposes the war, 

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where no King's protests have 
spread to all 50 states, and 

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where Republicans in competitive
districts are beginning to 

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question the war's political 
cost ahead of November midterms.

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Posseshkian is not speaking into
a void. 

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He is speaking into a country 
with a fracturing domestic 

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consensus on the war. 
Whether his letter changes any 

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American minds is unknowable, 
but it does not need to change 

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many minds to matter. 
If it reinforces the doubts of 

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Americans already questioning 
the wars duration and cost, the 

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families paying $4.00 per gallon
at the pump, the voters watching

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13 service members die in a 
conflict with no announced 

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endpoint, it may add incremental
pressure to the American 

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political environment that is 
already the most important 

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variable in how this war ends. 
Iran's civilian president is 

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reaching toward the American 
domestic political landscape as 

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a lever. 
The letter also did not deny 

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that Posseschkian had asked for 
a ceasefire. 

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Trump claimed on Wednesday that 
Iran's president had requested 

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one. 
Iran's Foreign Ministry called 

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the claim false and baseless. 
Posseschkian's letter, published

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the same day, did not address 
the specific claim at all. 

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That silence is itself a form of
communication. 

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A president who is internally 
arguing for a ceasefire and 

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feels like a hostage unable to 
negotiate would not formally 

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deny seeking one in a public 
letter because the denial would 

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contradict what he privately 
believes. 

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Instead, he wrote around the 
question, asking whose interests

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the war serves without crossing 
the red lines his own military 

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commanders have drawn around the
negotiating process. 

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The more consequential story 
about Posseshkian came not from 

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the letter, but from a leaked 
exchange reported by Iran 

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International and Channel 14. 
Sources described A tense 

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confrontation between Possession
and IRGC Chief Commander Ahmad 

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Vahidi over the war's management
in Iran's economic situation. 

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According to the reporting, 
Possession told Vahidi directly 

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that without a ceasefire, Iran's
economy could completely 

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collapse within three to four 
weeks. 

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He said he wanted to be involved
in the negotiations with the 

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United States. 
Vahidi's reported response was 

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categorical. 
That is exactly why you cannot 

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be involved. 
You will give up everything for 

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a deal. 
That exchange, if accurate, is 

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the most important glimpse into 
the internal Iranian decision 

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making process since the war 
began. 

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It reveals A fundamental 
structural conflict at the heart

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of Iran's wartime governance. 
The civilian president 

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Possesskian, the reformist 
elected on a platform of 

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reengaging with the West, is 
warning about economic collapse 

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and wants to negotiate. 
The IRGC chief is telling him he

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cannot be trusted to negotiate 
because he would concede too 

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much. 
Posseshkian reportedly told 

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aides afterward that he feels 
like a hostage, unable to act 

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independently amid hardliner 
control. 

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The framing of Posseshkian as a 
hostage is precisely what the 

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structure of the Islamic 
Republic was designed to 

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produce. 
The IRGC reports to the supreme 

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leader, not the elected 
president. 

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With the supreme leader newly 
installed and possibly 

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incapacitated, the IRGC has 
stepped into that power vacuum. 

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The result is a civilian 
president who can write open 

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letters to Americans but cannot 
apparently participate in the 

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negotiations that might end the 
war devastating his country. 

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This matters enormously for the 
diplomatic track. 

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The United States has been 
passing messages through 

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Pakistan to Iranian 
intermediaries. 

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Rubio has said there is 
potential for a direct US Iran 

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meeting. 
Pakistan's foreign minister has 

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said direct talks could come in 
days. 

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But the Poseskian Vahidi 
exchange reveals the central 

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obstacle. 
Who in Iran actually has the 

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authority to agree to anything? 
The answer based on this 

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exchange is not the civilian 
president. 

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The IRGC has effectively cut the
civilian government out of the 

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negotiating process, insisting 
that the military command 

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manages any potential settlement
on its own terms. 

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Any American official sitting 
across from an Iranian 

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interlocutor needs to know 
whether that person has the 

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authority to make binding 
commitments, or whether whatever

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they agree to will be overruled 
by Vahidi or the new supreme 

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leader before the ink is dry. 
That uncertainty is the central 

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obstacle to any deal. 
That is why the public 

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statements from Iran's foreign 
ministry, parliament, speaker 

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and IRGC have been consistently 
defiant, even as Posseschian has

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been signalling willingness to 
end the war. 

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They are not contradicting each 
other out of confusion. 

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They are contradicting each 
other because there are two 

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parallel chains of authority in 
Iran right now and they want 

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fundamentally different 
outcomes. 

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Posseschian also reportedly 
called for executive and 

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administrative powers to be 
returned to the civilian 

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government, a demand firmly 
rejected by Vahidi, who blamed 

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the current crisis on the 
civilian government's failure to

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implement structural reforms 
before the war. 

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That framing positions the IRGC 
as the victim of mismanagement 

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rather than the author of the 
military escalation that has 

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produced it. 
The Irgc's institutional 

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survival depends on Iran 
remaining in confrontation with 

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the United States and Israel. 
Its budget, patronage networks, 

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and political power within the 
Islamic Republic are predicated 

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on the existence of an external 
enemy that justifies its scale 

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and reach. 
Any deal that ends this war on 

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acceptable terms will, by 
definition, curtail the 

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conditions that have sustained 
IRGC power for nearly five 

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decades. 
It is not merely that the IRGC 

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believes Posseshkian would 
concede too much, is that any 

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acceptable deal would diminish 
the IRGC itself. 

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The economic situation inside 
Iran that Posseshkian was 

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describing to Vahidi is becoming
visible in granular and deeply 

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concerning ways. 
Reports from multiple major 

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Iranian cities describe ATMs 
that are empty, out of service 

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or inaccessible. 
Online banking systems have 

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faced repeated disruptions. 
Government workers across 

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multiple ministries have 
reported months of delayed 

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salary payments. 
The Iranian rial has been an 

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effective free fall since the 
start of the conflict, with 

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informal exchange rates 
reflecting a collapse in the 

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currency's purchasing power. 
Inflation in essential goods was

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already above 100% before the 
war began, a product of years of

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sanctions and economic 
mismanagement. 

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The war has layered new 
disruptions on top of that 

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already strained foundation 
energy shortages in residential 

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areas, supply chain breakdowns 
for imported goods, and the 

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disruption of trade routes that 
pass through the Gulf states 

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Iran has been attacking. 
The most vulnerable populations 

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inside Iran are those who depend
on government subsidies, 

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imported medicines and stable 
food prices. 

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The war has disrupted all three 
simultaneously. 

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Iran's Red Crescent has 
previously reported that more 

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than 80,000 civilian units have 
been damaged since the war 

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began. 
The human cost is not limited to

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those killed or physically 
injured. 

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It extends to the entire 
population experiencing the 

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compounding effects of 
bombardment, economic collapse, 

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information blackout and 
government dysfunction. 

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According to the leaked 
exchange, the Iranian president 

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himself warned that total 
economic collapse, not merely 

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severe hardship, is a real 
scenario within three to four 

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weeks without a ceasefire. 
The IRGC chief's response was to

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remove Posseshkian from 
negotiating process. 

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That response is the most 
alarming data point of this 

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entire episode. 
The Dubai Financial Channel 

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disruption is the result of a 
development that received less 

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attention than it deserved. 
UAE authorities arrested dozens 

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of money changers tied to 
financial entities linked to 

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Iran's Revolutionary Guards, 
shut down associated companies 

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and close their offices. 
The UAE crackdown followed days 

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of mounting regional tensions 
and came alongside other 

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measures targeting Iranian 
nationals, including visa 

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revocations and tighter travel 
restrictions through Dubai. 

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For years, Dubai has served as 
Iran's main offshore financial 

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artery where oil proceeds and 
real conversions were turned 

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into usable foreign currency 
beyond the reach of American 

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sanctions. 
Iranian linked money exchange 

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houses sustained government and 
military spending under the 

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world's most severe sanctions 
regime. 

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The arrest of dozens of IRGC 
linked moneychangers is one of 

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the most serious blows yet to 
Tehran Sanctions of Asian 

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Network and the UA ES decision 
to take this action represents a

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country that has been absorbing 
Iranian strikes throughout this 

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war, now retaliating through 
financial means rather than 

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military ones. 
The combination of those stories

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paints a picture of Iran 
entering Week 5 in a 

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fundamentally different 
condition. 

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From February 28th. 
Its military command structure 

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has been decimated. 
It's Navy largely destroyed. 

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Its missile production capacity 
more than 2/3 degraded. 

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It's Internet blacked out for 35
days. 

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00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:28,240
It's president privately warns 
of economic collapse. 

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00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:32,760
It's IRGC refuses civilian 
participation in negotiations. 

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00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:37,720
It's Dubai financial lifeline 
shut down, ATM's running dry. 

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Government salaries delayed. 
Tehran a ghost town. 

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None of that means Iran is about
to collapse. 

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States under siege persist 
longer than external observers 

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predict. 
Iran survived decades of Western

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pressure and a devastating war 
with Iraq. 

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The IRGC retains institutional 
cohesion in its lower ranks. 

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And the question of what comes 
after the Islamic Republic has 

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no clean answer. 
But the convergence of internal 

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00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:08,920
economic pressure, civilian 
military conflict, external 

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00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:11,720
financial isolation, and a 
three-year sentence of 

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00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:14,920
hyperinflation does suggest that
the war is extracting a cost 

241
00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:17,880
from Iran that its public 
statements and military posture 

242
00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:21,280
are designed to conceal. 
Posseshkian's warning to Vahidi.

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00:13:21,560 --> 00:13:24,880
3 weeks to economic collapse is 
not the statement of a 

244
00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,000
government that feels 
comfortable with the current 

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00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:29,080
trajectory. 
It is the statement of a 

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00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:32,040
civilian leader who can see a 
Cliff edge approaching and 

247
00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:35,600
cannot get his country's most 
powerful institution to slow 

248
00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:37,720
down. 
The impact of this war on the 

249
00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:41,120
United States, the United 
Kingdom, and Australia is being 

250
00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:44,520
felt daily in ways that extend 
well beyond the battlefield. 

251
00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:49,360
In the United States, gas prices
are now averaging $4.06 per 

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00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:52,560
gallon, the highest level since 
2022 and rising. 

253
00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:56,960
Bank of America forecasts oil at
$100 per barrel through the rest

254
00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:00,800
of 2026, meaning the economic 
pain of the pump is not a short 

255
00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:03,920
term anomaly, but a structural 
condition for the year ahead. 

256
00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,200
Airlines are cutting routes, 
delivery companies are raising 

257
00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:10,920
surcharges, and the US Postal 
Service is seeking regulatory 

258
00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:13,600
approval for an 8% package 
surcharge. 

259
00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:18,520
Consumer confidence has fallen 
sharply. 45% of Americans say 

260
00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:21,920
they are extremely or very 
concerned about affording gas in

261
00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:25,240
the coming months. 
Trump's approval rating sits at 

262
00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:27,240
its lowest point of his second 
term. 

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00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:31,120
No King's protests have now 
spread to all 50 states. 

264
00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:34,640
A bipartisan group of senators 
is pushing back on NATO 

265
00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:38,080
withdrawal threats, and 13 
American service members are 

266
00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:41,600
dead, with a toll of wounded now
running into the hundreds. 

267
00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:45,080
The war Trump said would last 
four weeks has entered its sixth

268
00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:47,120
week with no end formally 
announced. 

269
00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:50,480
The domestic political cost of 
that extension is now 

270
00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:53,720
compounding with midterm 
elections in November. 

271
00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:57,160
Republicans in competitive 
districts are beginning to treat

272
00:14:57,160 --> 00:14:59,680
the war as a liability as much 
as an asset. 

273
00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:02,480
Three days remain until April 
6th. 

274
00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:05,960
The deadline is real. 
The economic pressure inside 

275
00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:09,240
Iran is intensifying. 
The Dubai Financial Lifeline has

276
00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:12,840
been severed and the civilian 
military rupture in Tehran is 

277
00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,920
the most significant development
inside Iran since the war's 

278
00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:19,080
opening decapitation strikes in 
the United Kingdom. 

279
00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:22,240
The war's effects are being felt
through energy prices, 

280
00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:25,080
diplomatic stress and a 
government navigating the 

281
00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:28,360
narrowest of paths between 
alliance loyalty and domestic 

282
00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:31,040
opposition. 
British Gas and electricity 

283
00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:34,120
bills have risen sharply since 
the hormones closure began, 

284
00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:37,440
driven by the disruption to 
global LNG supplies. 

285
00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:41,000
The UK imports a small but 
meaningful percentage of its 

286
00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:44,720
liquefied natural gas from Gulf 
sources and the pricing effect 

287
00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:47,760
has cascaded across the broader 
European energy market. 

288
00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:50,640
Prime Minister Starmer has 
walked a careful line 

289
00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:54,040
reaffirming UK support for the 
war's stated objectives while 

290
00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:56,720
declining to participate 
militarily in offensive 

291
00:15:56,720 --> 00:16:00,160
operations, confining British 
forces to a defensive role 

292
00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:03,680
intercepting Iranian missiles 
over Jordan, Qatar and Iraq. 

293
00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,560
His announcement that 35 nations
have signed a maritime security 

294
00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:10,600
statement for post war hormones 
represents Britain attempting to

295
00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:14,040
lead diplomatically in a space 
where it cannot lead militarily.

296
00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:16,760
But the broader question of 
whether Britain's support for 

297
00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:20,480
American use of Diego Garcia and
RAF Fairford for offensive 

298
00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:23,080
operations constitutes A 
meaningful form of Co 

299
00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:25,480
belligerence is a debate that 
has not been resolved in 

300
00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:28,920
parliament and is unlikely to be
resolved before the war ends. 

301
00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:32,400
In Australia, the war's impact 
is most visible at the petrol 

302
00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:35,880
Bowser, where prices have risen 
to their highest level since the

303
00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:39,080
post pandemic fuel crisis. 
The Australian government has 

304
00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:42,760
announced free public transport 
in Victoria through April and in

305
00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:46,560
Tasmania through July to offset 
the cost of rising fuel prices 

306
00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:50,080
for commuters. 
WA's public transport authority 

307
00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:53,560
has reported a large spike in 
ridership over the past three 

308
00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:56,640
weeks as petrol becomes 
prohibitively expensive from 

309
00:16:56,640 --> 00:17:00,000
many families. 
Australia has no direct military

310
00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:03,400
involvement in the conflict, but
is a major buyer of refined fuel

311
00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:07,240
products in a country deeply 
integrated into global supply 

312
00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:10,200
chains that pass through Middle 
Eastern energy infrastructure. 

313
00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:13,119
The economic exposure is 
substantial and growing. 

314
00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:16,280
What makes this moment different
from every previous phase of the

315
00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:20,040
war is that the internal Iranian
picture is now becoming slightly

316
00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:22,839
more visible than it has been at
any previous point. 

317
00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:26,040
The Possesskian letter to 
Americans, the leaked Tahiti 

318
00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:30,480
confrontation, the UAE financial
crackdown, the ATM shortages, 

319
00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:33,000
the reports of delayed 
government salaries, the 

320
00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:35,400
paralysis described by the New 
York Times. 

321
00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:38,280
These are data points that 
collectively suggest Iran's 

322
00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:41,520
wartime management is under more
strain than its public posture 

323
00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:44,240
of defiance reveals. 
The shared experience of the 

324
00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:47,400
United States, the United 
Kingdom and Australia in this 

325
00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:50,760
conflict is in many ways the 
story of three allied 

326
00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:53,720
democracies absorbing the cost 
of a war that none of their 

327
00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:57,880
publics were asked to authorize.
In the US, Congress was bypassed

328
00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:01,280
through executive action. 
In the UK, Parliament was 

329
00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:04,960
briefed but not voted on. 
In Australia, the government's 

330
00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:08,760
exposure is entirely indirect, 
economic rather than military, 

331
00:18:09,120 --> 00:18:11,320
but no less real. 
For the families paying higher 

332
00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:15,080
fuel bills, higher food prices 
and higher delivery surcharges 

333
00:18:15,120 --> 00:18:18,360
every week, the war continues in
all three countries. 

334
00:18:18,360 --> 00:18:21,480
The political pressure to end 
the war is building, even among 

335
00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,520
governments broadly supportive 
of its stated objectives. 

336
00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:28,520
Trump faces Republican dissent 
and falling poll numbers. 

337
00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:32,280
Starmer faces Labor backbenchers
who oppose both the offensive 

338
00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:35,000
use of British bases in the 
absence of a diplomatic 

339
00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:37,600
strategy. 
Australia's government faces 

340
00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:40,680
rising cost of living pressures 
that the war is materially 

341
00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:43,800
worsening at a time of domestic 
electoral vulnerability. 

342
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,800
The China Pakistan 5 Point 
Initiative, Starmer's 35 Nation 

343
00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:51,000
Maritime Coalition, and the 
quiet diplomatic architecture 

344
00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:54,240
being assembled around 
Pakistan's intermediary role are

345
00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:57,480
in part a product of the 
pressure that all three of these

346
00:18:57,480 --> 00:18:59,880
democratic governments are 
absorbed domestically. 

347
00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:04,560
They need this war to end not on
Iran's terms, not 

348
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:08,200
unconditionally, but they need 
it to end before the economic 

349
00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:11,160
costs produce political 
consequences that outlast the 

350
00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:14,280
war itself. 
Posseskian's letter also arrived

351
00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:17,440
as UN rights chief Volcker Turk 
condemned attempts to limit 

352
00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:21,160
media freedom across the region,
including in the United States, 

353
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:24,160
where the Federal Communications
Commission reportedly threatened

354
00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:27,440
to revoke broadcast licenses for
coverage deemed critical of the 

355
00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,080
war. 
The context of that 

356
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:32,920
condemnation, with Iran under a 
35 Day Internet blackout and 

357
00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:36,520
press freedom under pressure in 
United States adds another layer

358
00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:38,880
to the war of narratives that 
Posseskian's letter was 

359
00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:40,680
consciously trying to intervene 
in. 

360
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,000
The letter was an act of public 
diplomacy conducted over the 

361
00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:46,880
heads of both governments, and 
it landed at a moment when the 

362
00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:50,160
domestic political debate in the
United States is precisely the 

363
00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:53,320
lever that could most change the
trajectory of this conflict. 

364
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:57,160
Whether possessions warnings 
move the IRGC toward any 

365
00:19:57,160 --> 00:20:00,480
accommodation before Monday 
evening will determine whether 

366
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,480
April 6th becomes the hinge on 
which this war turns. 

367
00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:07,040
The Irgcs position that it 
cannot allow the civilian 

368
00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:10,360
government to negotiate because 
it would give too much away is a

369
00:20:10,360 --> 00:20:13,480
coherent strategic stance from 
the perspective of a military 

370
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:15,920
institution determined to 
preserve its leverage. 

371
00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:19,560
But it is a stance that ignores 
the economic reality that 

372
00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:23,400
Possesskian is describing. 
If the economy collapses before 

373
00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:27,480
a deal is reached, the IRGC will
have preserved its negotiating 

374
00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:30,360
leverage at the cost of the 
state's functional capacity to 

375
00:20:30,360 --> 00:20:32,720
govern. 
That is the paradox at the heart

376
00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:36,040
of Iran's wartime decision 
making, and it is the paradox 

377
00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:39,200
that the next three days will 
begin to force towards some kind

378
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,800
of resolution. 
The paradox at the heart of this

379
00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:44,760
conflict is now visible in its 
starkest form. 

380
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,960
The IRGC has the power to end 
this war or prevent it from 

381
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:52,200
ending, but its institutional 
incentives pushed toward 

382
00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:55,000
continuation. 
The civilian government wants to

383
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:58,200
end it but has been stripped of 
the authority to negotiate. 

384
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:02,000
The Supreme Leader may or may 
not be operational. 

385
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:05,560
The economy is heading toward 
collapse on a three to four week

386
00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:08,680
timeline according to the 
President's own warning, and 

387
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,960
April 6th power plant deadline 
is 3 days away. 

388
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:16,160
The war is not ending. 
It is approaching the moment 

389
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:20,360
where something has to give. 
This has been episode 35 of Epic

390
00:21:20,360 --> 00:21:25,160
Fury, the US Iran War podcast. 3
days till April 6th. 

391
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:29,280
The internal story inside Iran 
is now as consequential as 

392
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,040
anything happening on the 
battlefield. 

393
00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:33,160
We will be back very soon.