1 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:19,480 Trump announced on Tuesday evening that he was pausing the 2 00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:23,520 Hormuz guided transit less than 48 hours after its launch on 3 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:26,560 Monday morning. He said he is giving diplomacy 4 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:30,240 time to produce a deal. The blockade of Iranian ports 5 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:33,760 remains fully in place. Israel launched its largest 6 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:37,480 Lebanon strike since the war began on Tuesday, Operation 7 00:00:37,480 --> 00:00:41,920 Eternal Darkness, killing at least 357 people across southern 8 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:44,120 Lebanon, Beirut and the Beka Valley. 9 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:47,680 Iran threatened to attack Israel directly if the aggressions 10 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:50,160 against Lebanon are not immediately stopped. 11 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:53,960 Secretary of State Rubio told a White House briefing that at 12 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:56,920 least 10 stranded sailors have already died as a direct 13 00:00:56,920 --> 00:01:00,200 consequence of the Hormuz closure and the Strait is now 14 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:02,400 dealing with two additional cargo vessels. 15 00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:05,200 A blaze off the UAE from Monday's confrontation. 16 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:12,120 It is Wednesday, May 6th, 2026, day 68 of Operation Epic Fury. 17 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:16,280 The hormones guided transit has been paused after less than 48 18 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:18,600 hours. Lebanon is burning under the 19 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:21,480 largest Israeli strike since the war began. 20 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:25,200 Iran is threatening to attack Israel directly for the first 21 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:28,800 time in this conflict. 10 civilian sailors are confirmed 22 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:30,800 dead from conditions in the block straight. 23 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:34,920 The proposal exchange continues through Pakistan with the US 24 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:38,320 written response under Iranian review and the deal that would 25 00:01:38,320 --> 00:01:42,400 end all of it remains unwritten, unfinished and further away than 26 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:47,240 it appeared on Sunday. This is episode 68 of Epic Fury, 27 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:51,560 the US Iran war podcast. Follow on Spotify and Apple 28 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:54,360 podcast to stay with this story as it develops. 29 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:58,080 Let's get into it. Begin with the Lebanon strikes, 30 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:01,280 because Operation Eternal Darkness is the most significant 31 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:04,680 military escalation anywhere in this regional conflict since 32 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:07,880 Operation Epic Furies opening night, and because within hours 33 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:11,680 of those strikes, Iran issued its most explicit direct threat 34 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:13,840 to attack Israel of the entire war. 35 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:16,680 Israel launched what it described as a wide-ranging 36 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:19,720 military operation targeting what it said were all of 37 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:22,840 Hezbollah's command and control centers in southern Lebanon, 38 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:25,520 Beirut and the Beka Valley on Tuesday. 39 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:28,640 The operation, which the Netanyahu government named 40 00:02:28,640 --> 00:02:31,840 Operation Eternal Darkness, targeting what it described as 41 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:35,200 all of Hezbollah's command and control infrastructure with the 42 00:02:35,200 --> 00:02:38,640 largest single day Israeli military campaign in Lebanon 43 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:41,640 since the war with Iran began on February 28th. 44 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:46,120 Lebanese health authorities confirmed at least 357 people 45 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:49,840 were killed and more than 1200 injured across the country. 46 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:55,320 In Beirut alone, at least 92 people were killed and 742 47 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:58,640 others were injured. The scale of civilian casualties 48 00:02:58,640 --> 00:03:02,800 in the Lebanese capital in a single day of strikes, 92 dead, 49 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:07,880 742 wounded in Beirut alone is without precedent in the current 50 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,840 68 day conflict. The three-week ceasefire 51 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:13,880 extension that was supposed to hold until mid-May has not 52 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:16,240 merely frayed, it has been shattered. 53 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:19,520 An Israeli operation name for the permanent removal of light 54 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:22,320 has ended the Lebanon ceasefire's operational reality 55 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:24,920 in everything but legal formality and has triggered 56 00:03:24,920 --> 00:03:28,280 Iran's most explicit combat threat since the war began. 57 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:32,240 Iran responded with the most direct and explicit threat it is 58 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:35,680 issued toward Israel in the entire 68 day conflict. 59 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:39,280 Iranian state media reported that Iran warned it would attack 60 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:42,200 Israel directly if the aggressions against Lebanon are 61 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:44,880 not brought to an immediate and unconditional end. 62 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:48,240 That is not the language of proxy support for Hezbollah. 63 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:52,160 It is Iran placing its own military force on the table as a 64 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:55,280 deterrent against continued Israeli operations in Lebanon. 65 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:58,560 The 68 day conflict. US bombing of Iran. 66 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:01,360 Iranian missile salvos against nine countries. 67 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:04,120 A naval blockade. A ceasefire. 2 round of 68 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:06,040 Islamabad talks without agreement. 69 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:09,880 A guided transit launched and paused in 48 hours, and a 70 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:13,040 proposal exchange that remains stalled on nuclear sequencing 71 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:16,399 now is Iran explicitly threatening to reinteractive 72 00:04:16,399 --> 00:04:20,079 combat operations against Israel in direct response to Tuesday's 73 00:04:20,079 --> 00:04:23,480 Lebanon strikes. If that threat is executed, if 74 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:27,240 Iranian missiles strike Israeli cities or Israeli military 75 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:30,720 positions directly, the regional architecture of the ceasefire 76 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:33,040 collapses entirely and immediately. 77 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:36,320 The Lebanon operation is not peripheral to the Iran 78 00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:39,400 negotiations. It is structurally central to 79 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:42,320 them in ways that Operation Eternal Darkness has now made 80 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:45,920 impossible to minimize. Iran has consistently argued 81 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,920 throughout the proposal exchange that cannot make concessions to 82 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:52,200 the United States while Israel is simultaneously conducting 83 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:55,000 military operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah. 84 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:58,720 Every previous escalation of Israeli strikes in Lebanon, the 85 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:02,640 10 day ceasefire violations, the daily Israeli operations, the 86 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:06,440 village evacuations, the 2600 death toll has been cited by 87 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:10,160 Iraqi, by Galabaf and by Iranian state media as a reason the 88 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:12,880 diplomatic process cannot proceed toward a permanent 89 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:14,400 settlement while Lebanon is burning. 90 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:19,080 Operation Eternal Darkness killed more than 350 people in a 91 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:23,680 single day. 92 of them were in Beirut, Iran's closest era of 92 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,080 political ally. The city where Hezbollah's 93 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:28,600 leadership and infrastructure are concentrated. 94 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:32,120 The city that Iran has invested decades of military and 95 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:35,120 financial support building into a strategic position. 96 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:39,240 The scale of the Beirut casualties, 92 dead in a single 97 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:43,880 city, 742 wounded, is a political and psychological 98 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:46,880 event for Iran's government that transcends the immediate 99 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:49,960 military accounting. It is Iran watching its most 100 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:53,360 important, most expensive, and most strategically central 101 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:56,000 external partner being systematically destroyed by 102 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:59,160 airstrikes on the same day that Iran is being asked to make 103 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:01,680 nuclear concessions to the country whose allies conducting 104 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:06,280 those strikes. If Iran's civilian diplomatic 105 00:06:06,280 --> 00:06:09,480 track was struggling to produce internal consensus on nuclear 106 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:13,560 concessions before Tuesday, the IRGC hardliners argument has 107 00:06:13,560 --> 00:06:15,680 just become dramatically more powerful. 108 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:19,800 How does the civilian diplomatic track argue to the IRGC and the 109 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:23,000 Common A that Iran should make its most significant strategic 110 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:25,840 concession to Washington, the nuclear commitment, while 111 00:06:25,840 --> 00:06:29,160 Israel, Washington's primary regional partner, is killing 112 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:32,160 hundreds of people in Beirut on the same day those concession 113 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:34,120 negotiations are supposed to be advancing? 114 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:37,520 That argument has no good available answer from inside 115 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:39,560 Iran's civilian diplomatic track. 116 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:43,200 It requires either a halt to the Lebanon strikes, which the US 117 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:46,760 has not publicly demanded of Israel, or a ceasefire framework 118 00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:49,280 that explicitly links Lebanon to the Iran deal. 119 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:52,800 That explicit linkage is exactly what Iran has been demanding 120 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:55,880 throughout this process, and exactly what the United States 121 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:59,080 has been refusing since Trump said at the April 8th ceasefire 122 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:02,440 press conference that Lebanon is not included in the deal because 123 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:04,920 of Hezbollah. Turn now to Trump's decision to 124 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:08,120 pause the Hormuz guided transit because it is the most rapid 125 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:11,680 reversal of a stated U.S. military operation in the entire 126 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:14,360 conflict, and because the reasoning behind the pause is 127 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:17,160 diplomatically as significant as the operation itself. 128 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:20,200 Trump announced on Tuesday evening that he was pausing the 129 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:23,480 effort to guide stranded vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz to 130 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:25,720 allow time to finalize an Iran deal. 131 00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:29,280 The blockade of Iranian ports remains in full effect. 132 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:33,000 The Guided transit, launched with 15,000 service members and 133 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:36,240 more than 100 aircraft on Monday morning and suspended with no 134 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:39,560 public announcement of duration on Tuesday evening, is on hold 135 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:43,520 pending a diplomatic outcome. The reversal took less than 48 136 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:46,880 hours from announcement to suspension, the fastest reversal 137 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:50,400 of a stated U.S. military operation since the war began on 138 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:53,480 February 28th. The implicit logic behind the 139 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:56,400 pause is this. The Guided Transit by triggering 140 00:07:56,400 --> 00:08:00,160 Iranian fire on US destroyers, or at least triggering Iran's 141 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:03,640 claim of firing on US destroyers with generating an immediate 142 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,240 risk of a full military confrontation that would end the 143 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:08,840 ceasefire entirely, not produce a deal. 144 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:12,640 A ceasefire that collapses in a straight confrontation does not 145 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:16,360 produce a nuclear agreement. It produces a return to bombing, 146 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:19,920 a collapse of the Pakistan Channel, and a diplomatic reset 147 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:23,200 that costs weeks or months. Pausing the guided transit 148 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:26,040 removes the most immediate military trigger while 149 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:29,120 preserving the entirety of the structural economic pressure. 150 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:34,559 Iran still cannot export oil. 48 ships have been turned away by 151 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:38,919 the blockade. 31 tankers carrying 53,000,000 barrels of 152 00:08:38,919 --> 00:08:42,360 Iranian crude are trapped in the Gulf with nowhere to unload. 153 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:46,360 The economic pressure is entirely unchanged by the pause. 154 00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:50,960 The blockade continues in full. The three carrier groups remain 155 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:53,840 in the region. The Dark Eagle hypersonic 156 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:56,880 missiles that CENTCOM requested are still in the deployment 157 00:08:56,880 --> 00:08:59,560 pipeline. But the specific escalation risk 158 00:08:59,560 --> 00:09:03,960 of American warships and Iranian fast attack boats in the same 34 159 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:07,200 mile wide channel, the risk that produced Monday's competing fire 160 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:08,840 claims, has been removed. For now. 161 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:12,720 Trump is explicitly calibrating the pressure level, enough 162 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:15,480 economic pressure maintained through the blockade to 163 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:18,560 eventually produce the nuclear concession, not so much 164 00:09:18,560 --> 00:09:21,960 immediate military confrontation that the ceasefire collapses 165 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:25,520 before the concession is made. That calibration, and the 166 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:28,040 judgement that the blockade alone provides sufficient 167 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:30,880 pressure, is what Tuesday's pause represents. 168 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:34,360 Whether it produces enough space for a deal before Operation 169 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:37,360 Eternal Darkness collapses the diplomatic architecture from the 170 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:41,160 Lebanon side is the question the next 48 to 72 hours will begin 171 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:43,640 to answer. And it is the most consequential 172 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:45,880 open question this conflict has yet produced. 173 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:49,080 Secretary of State Rubio appeared at a White House press 174 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:52,480 briefing before Trump's pause announcement and laid out the US 175 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:55,560 position with more specificity than any statement since the 176 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:57,560 Oval Office nuclear floor statement. 177 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:01,840 For peace to be achieved, Rubio said, Iran must agree to Trump's 178 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:05,400 demands on its nuclear program and also agreed to reopen the 179 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:08,800 Strait of Hormuz. That framing 2 simultaneous 180 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:12,160 requirements, both of which Iran has been declining to address 181 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:15,400 simultaneously. Is the US position distilled to 182 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:19,720 its minimum nuclear commitment plus Hormuz opening, not 183 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:22,480 sequenced, Not one before the other. 184 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:26,760 Both together, What was genuinely new in Rubio's 185 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:30,000 briefing was his description of the humanitarian dimension of 186 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:32,880 the hormones closure. He said thousands of civilian 187 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:35,840 sailors are stranded in the Strait aboard vessels that 188 00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:39,280 entered before the war began or before the blockade tightened, 189 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:42,600 now unable to exit or proceed to their destinations. 190 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:46,000 He described those sailors as sitting ducks, isolated, 191 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:49,520 starving and vulnerable in vessels that cannot move, cannot 192 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:52,880 refuel and cannot receive the supplies that sustain a crew at 193 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:56,560 sea for an extended period. He confirmed at least 10 sailors 194 00:10:56,560 --> 00:10:58,640 have already died from the conditions created by the 195 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:02,120 hormones closure, a death toll from civilian maritime exposure 196 00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:05,320 that the administration had not previously disclosed publicly 197 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:08,080 and that Rubio placed on the record for the first time on 198 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:11,120 Tuesday. That Figure 10 dead civilian 199 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:14,880 Mariners, not combatants, not military service members, but 200 00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:17,760 commercial seafarers from countries that have no part in 201 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:21,200 the Iran US conflict, is a humanitarian cost of the Hormuz 202 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:23,880 dispute that has been almost entirely absent from the 203 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:27,440 conflict's public narrative. It is not a statistic generated 204 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:30,560 by military action. It is the consequence of a 205 00:11:30,560 --> 00:11:34,160 waterway closure sustained by two governments in a standoff 206 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:37,040 over sequencing. Those 10 sailors are the human 207 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:40,600 face of the maritime logistics emergency that India, South 208 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:43,640 Korea and the Philippines have been raising through diplomatic 209 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:45,640 channels since the conflict's opening weeks. 210 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:48,800 Rubio placing that figure on the record at a White House press 211 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:50,920 briefing. Is the administration publicly 212 00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:53,640 anchoring the humanitarian argument for the guided transit? 213 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:57,240 Thousands of stranded civilian sailors, 10 already dead from 214 00:11:57,240 --> 00:12:00,240 exposure and deprivation, Their home governments demanding 215 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:03,800 action as part of the legal and moral justification for Monday's 216 00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:06,720 operation. Whatever military confrontation 217 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:09,600 it triggered in the Strait, the 10 dead sailors are the 218 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:13,000 administration's humanitarian answer to Iranian claims that 219 00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:15,280 the guided transit was an act of aggression. 220 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:18,240 This is a rescue operation, not an invasion. 221 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:21,640 Maersk confirmed that one of the two US merchant ships that 222 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:25,160 crossed the Strait on Monday, a vehicle carrier it operates, 223 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:27,760 exited safely with US naval guidance. 224 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:31,240 That is the one verified commercial success of the Guided 225 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:36,080 Transits, 24 hours of operation. One vehicle carrier, a Maersk 226 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:40,560 operated ship, exited the Strait safely under US naval guidance. 227 00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:44,600 That is the Guided Transits 1 confirmed commercial success in 228 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:49,000 24 hours of operation against it, an Iranian missile claim 229 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:52,960 against the US destroyer that CENTCOM denied, 6 Iranian fast 230 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:56,720 boats claim destroyed by the US that Iran denied, A South Korean 231 00:12:56,720 --> 00:13:00,480 vessel on fire inside the Strait and two cargo vessels ablaze off 232 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:04,240 the UAE on the same day. One confirmed safe passage to 233 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:06,600 five disputed or confirmed incidents. 234 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:09,760 That ratio is the measure of what the Strait of Hormuz has 235 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:13,680 become over 68 days of war, and it is the clearest indicator of 236 00:13:13,680 --> 00:13:15,440 why. Restoring commercial confidence 237 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,440 that requires A diplomatic resolution, not just a naval 238 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:21,720 presence, however large. The two cargo vessels ablaze off 239 00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:25,640 the UAE add another layer of damage to the straits reputation 240 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:28,680 as a commercial route. British military authorities 241 00:13:28,680 --> 00:13:32,560 reported the fires on Monday. The UAE denied any Iran 242 00:13:32,560 --> 00:13:35,680 attributed strikes on its territory in recent days. 243 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:40,080 The origin of the two UAE fires is not confirmed and Iran denied 244 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:42,840 responsibility. But two cargo vessels ablaze 245 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:46,640 near the UAEA, South Korean vessel on fire inside the Strait 246 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:49,680 and competing missile and boat destruction claims all happening 247 00:13:49,680 --> 00:13:52,440 on the same Monday, compose a picture of a waterway that 248 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:55,040 commercial shipping operators will not route vessels through 249 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:58,600 voluntarily, regardless of what US guided transit announcement 250 00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:02,080 say about safety. Operation Eternal Darkness also 251 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:05,440 changes the immediate arithmetic of the Lebanon ceasefire. 252 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:09,000 The three-week extension agreed at the White House 11 days ago 253 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:12,320 with Rubio and Vance in the room, announced as a diplomatic 254 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:15,160 achievement that Trump said was made possible by his personal 255 00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:17,520 involvement, has now been rendered operationally 256 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:20,520 irrelevant by the largest Israeli operation in Lebanon 257 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:23,560 since the war began. The extension expires in 258 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:26,200 mid-May. Operation Eternal Darkness has 259 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:29,760 produced casualties in a single day that dwarf what the entire 260 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:32,160 three-week extension was designed to prevent from 261 00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:36,320 accumulating over 21 days. the United States is simultaneously 262 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:39,360 the guarantor of the Lebanon ceasefire extension, the country 263 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:42,880 brokering Iran, US diplomatic talks through Pakistan and the 264 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:45,920 primary supplier of the weapons with which Israel is destroying 265 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:48,160 Hezbollah's command infrastructure in Beirut. 266 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,480 Those 3 roles are not compatible with each other in Tuesday's 267 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:54,480 operational reality, and the question of which one Washington 268 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:58,880 prioritises ceasefire guarantor, Iran deal broker or Israel arms 269 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:01,640 supplier will shape what the next phase of this conflict 270 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:04,000 looks like. The administration that brokered 271 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:07,160 the Lebanon ceasefire extension cannot credibly tell Iran to 272 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:10,400 negotiate on nuclear terms while its ally conducts the largest 273 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:13,680 Lebanon strikes since the war began in strikes carried out 274 00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:17,360 with weapons that include the $8.6 billion in emergency arms 275 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:19,960 the State Department fast tracked to Israel and Gulf 276 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:22,840 partners last Friday. It cannot credibly describe 277 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:26,160 itself as the Lebanon ceasefire guarantor while authorizing the 278 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:29,600 emergency arms sales to Israel that have supplied the munitions 279 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:31,920 being used in Operation Eternal Darkness. 280 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:35,240 France, which has been building the multinational freedom of 281 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:38,120 navigation mission for Hormuz and has been among the most 282 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:41,360 persistent European voices for Lebanon stability, called 283 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:44,800 immediately for a halt to Israeli military operations in 284 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:48,400 Lebanon. the United Nations Secretary General called for an 285 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:51,640 immediate ceasefire. Iran threatened to fight. 286 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:55,240 The European Union's foreign policy chief called the Beirut 287 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:58,440 strikes unacceptable. The international consensus 288 00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:02,040 against the scale and targets of Operation Eternal Darkness is 289 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:06,120 broader and more explicit than at any previous point in the 68 290 00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:08,720 day conflict. The diplomatic architecture of 291 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:12,200 the past four weeks, the ceasefire, the Islamabad talks, 292 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:16,240 the revised proposals, the Tuska crew release, the guided transit 293 00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:19,400 and its paws has been built under the specific assumption 294 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:22,600 that both the US Iran track and the Lebanon track were moving, 295 00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:26,120 however haltingly and with however many daily violations, 296 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,400 toward de escalation rather than collapse. 297 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:31,960 Operation Eternal Darkness challenges that assumption. 298 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:37,760 At its foundation, Israel's largest Lebanon strike since the 299 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:41,400 war began, Iran's most direct threat to attack Israel in the 300 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:44,160 current conflict, and Trump pausing the Hormuz guided 301 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:46,480 transit all happened on the same Tuesday. 302 00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:50,440 The Lebanon operation kills hundreds and threatens Iranian 303 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:53,280 retaliation. The Hormones pause removes the 304 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,960 immediate military trigger while preserving economic pressure. 305 00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:00,800 The Iranian threat to attack Israel creates the possibility 306 00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:04,000 of a new military front that has nothing to do with the Pakistan 307 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:06,920 proposal exchange. Each of those three events, 308 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:10,960 Operation Eternal Darkness, Iran's direct attack threat, and 309 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:14,400 the hormones transit pause and isolation would be a significant 310 00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:16,839 development deserving its own full analysis. 311 00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:20,400 Together on the same Tuesday, they represent a compression of 312 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:23,760 risk that the diplomatic architecture Pakistan, Oman and 313 00:17:23,839 --> 00:17:26,880 the US private track have been carefully building over 4 weeks 314 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:30,320 was never designed to absorb simultaneously, and the test of 315 00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:32,920 the next 48 hours is whether it can absorb it anyway. 316 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:36,480 The specific danger of the Iran Israel direct threat is this 317 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:39,640 Iran threatening to attack Israel directly in response to 318 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:42,360 Operation Eternal Darkness? Is Iran making a threat that 319 00:17:42,360 --> 00:17:45,880 does not go through the Pakistan channel, does not involve Arachi 320 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:49,360 or Galabaf, cannot be managed through the Islamabad framework, 321 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:52,400 and is issued by Iran's armed forces rather than its foreign 322 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:55,480 ministry? If Iran executes that threat, if 323 00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:58,720 Iranian missiles strike Israeli territory in response to the 324 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:02,320 Beirut casualties, the US Iran ceasefire is almost certainly 325 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:05,840 over, the proposal exchange is over, and the war enters a new 326 00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:09,000 phase in which the Lebanon track and the Iran track have merged 327 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:10,880 into a single escalating conflict. 328 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:14,200 The private track Trump confirmed last week, the one 329 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:17,680 only he and a handful of others understand, would not survive 330 00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:21,800 that merger intact in 68 days of diplomatic investment through 331 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:25,160 Pakistan, through Oman, through written proposals and crew 332 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:28,440 releases and pause transits, would not survive it either. 333 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:35,320 Day 68, Operation Eternal Darkness 357 killed in a single 334 00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:37,840 day. Iran threatening direct attack 335 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:40,520 on Israel for the first time in this conflict. 336 00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:45,240 Trump pausing the Hormuz guided transit 48 hours after it began. 337 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:48,720 Rubio confirming 10 civilian sailors dead in the block 338 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:51,280 straight. Two more vessels ablaze off the 339 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:53,640 UE. The ceasefire between the United 340 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:58,040 States and Iran holds in name. In the formal absence of direct 341 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:01,880 US Iran military exchanges and in the continued operation of 342 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:05,800 the Pakistan Proposal Exchange. The ceasefire in Lebanon no 343 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:09,400 longer holds in any meaningful operational sense, and the 344 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:12,120 diplomatic process that was designed to end this war is now 345 00:19:12,120 --> 00:19:15,120 trying to survive the conditions the war itself is generating 346 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:18,920 simultaneously, on multiple fronts and at a pace that no 347 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:22,240 single diplomatic framework, however carefully assembled over 348 00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:25,960 4 weeks, was built to manage. If this podcast is helping you 349 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:29,320 make sense of what's happening, take 2 seconds to leave a five 350 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:31,880 star rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. 351 00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:35,520 It makes a huge difference to how many people find the show, 352 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:38,360 and if you want the deeper breakdown of what's really going 353 00:19:38,360 --> 00:19:41,160 on and where this is heading, you can unlock the premium 354 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,280 episodes directly in Spotify or Apple Podcasts. 355 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:49,840 This has been episode 68 of Epic Fury, the US Iran war podcast. 356 00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:56,280 Israel's Operation Eternal Darkness 357 killed 92 in Beirut 357 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:59,080 in a single day. Iran threatening to attack 358 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,400 Israel directly. For the first time in this 359 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,920 conflict, Trump paused the Hormuz guided transit. 360 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:09,200 Less than 48 hours after launching it, Rubio confirmed 10 361 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,640 civilian sailors are dead in the block straight. 362 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:16,840 Two more vessels on fire off the UE. the US Iran ceasefire holds 363 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,640 a name. The Lebanon ceasefire does not 364 00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:23,120 hold an operation. We will be back very soon.