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A deal agreed in principle. 
A supreme leader who has 

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endorsed the broad template in a
foreign ministry in Tehran 

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saying no agreement is imminent,
nothing has been committed and 

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the nuclear question is not yet 
on the table. 

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It is Wednesday the 27th of May 
2026, day 89 of Operation Epic 

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Fury. 
The war remains suspended, the 

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bombs are not falling in any 
sustained sense, the naval 

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blockade continues to tighten, 
and the gap between what 

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Washington says this deal 
contains and what Tehran says it

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contains is at this moment, 
wider than it has been at any 

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point since formal negotiations 
began. 

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This is Epic Fury, the US Iran 
war podcast. 

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There is a great deal to work 
through today. 

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Let us get straight into it. 
Start with the central tension, 

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because it defines everything 
else that happened in the past 

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24 hours. 
On Sunday and into Monday, a 

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senior United States official 
brief reporters that Iran had 

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agreed in principle to open the 
Strait of Hormuz, that Iran had 

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agreed in principle to dispose 
of its enriched uranium 

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stockpile, and that the broad 
template of the memorandum of 

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understanding had been endorsed 
by Supreme Leader Mujtaba 

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Khamenei himself. 
Those were the most optimistic 

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public statements from the 
American side since the 

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ceasefire began on April 8th. 
Trump described the deal on 

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Saturday as largely negotiated. 
He said an announcement would 

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come shortly. 
By Monday evening, Iran's 

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Foreign Ministry spokesman, 
Esmail Bakiya, had delivered a 

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response that flatly 
contradicted every major element

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of that characterization. 
But Kiya told reporters that to 

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say an agreement is about to be 
signed, no one can make such a 

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claim. 
He said negotiations are 

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ongoing. 
He acknowledged some headway has

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been made on certain issues. 
But he said the claim Iran had 

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made concrete commitments on the
nuclear file was not accurate. 

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Iran's semi official Fars news 
agency published a statement 

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saying Iran has made no 
commitments in this agreement 

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regarding handing over nuclear 
stockpiles, removing equipment, 

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closing facilities or pledging 
not to build a nuclear bomb. 

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Those two accounts cannot both 
be correct. 

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Either Washington is overstating
what has been agreed in order to

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generate public pressure towards
signature, or Tehran is publicly

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denying private commitments in 
order to manage the domestic 

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politics of what would be the 
most consequential diplomatic 

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concession in the Islamic 
Republic's history. 

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The honest answer is that from 
the outside, there is no way to 

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determine which reading is 
closer to the truth. 

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What can be said with confidence
is that this pattern of 

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radically divergent public 
claims has become the defining 

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feature of this entire 
negotiation, and it is the 

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reason why, 89 days into this 
conflict, no document has been 

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signed. 
The structural shape of what the

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United States is proposing is 
now clearer than it has been at 

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any earlier point in the talks 
because American officials 

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provided more detail over the 
weekend than at any previous 

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stage. 
The proposed Memorandum of 

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Understanding is organized 
around 2 distinct phases. 

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The first phase takes effect at 
the moment of signature, 

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involves the simultaneous mutual
removal of both blockades. 

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Iran clears the mines it 
deployed in the Strait of Hormuz

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and allows commercial shipping 
to transit without tolls. the 

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United States lifts its naval 
blockade of Iranian ports and 

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wave sanctions on Iranian oil 
sales during a 60 day 

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negotiating window that 
immediately follows. 

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The structure is explicitly 
performance based. 

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An American official put it 
plainly. 

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No dust, no dollars. 
If Iran does not perform, Iran 

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does not receive the economic 
relief the deal promises. 

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As the straight opens, the 
blockade loosens 

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proportionately. 
Sanctions relief is tied to 

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verify performance, not to the 
signature alone. 

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The second phase unfolds during 
those 60 days. 

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It involves negotiations on 
Iran's nuclear program, the fate

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of the enriched uranium 
stockpile, the situation in 

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Lebanon and the broader 
framework for a permanent into 

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the conflict. 
According to American officials,

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Iran has given verbal 
commitments, relayed through 

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Qatari mediators in Doha, that 
it will agree in principle to 

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dispose of all enriched uranium.
The American position covers 

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both the approximately 450 
kilograms in rich to near 

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weapons grade levels and the 
broader stockpile of roughly 

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2000 kilograms at lower 
enrichment concentrations. 

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American officials were clear. 
The question is not whether Iran

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will relinquish the material, 
but how. 

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Nobody disputes that the 
stockpile will be disposed of, 

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one official said. 
The question is how. 

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The logistics of that process 
are not simple. 

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Verifying, securing, 
transporting and receiving 

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roughly 2000kg of enriched 
uranium requires the 

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International Atomic Energy 
Agency secure transport 

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protocols and a willing 
recipient country or facility 

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under international supervision.
None of those operational 

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arrangements exist yet. 
Whether they can be negotiated 

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within 60 days alongside every 
other item on the agenda is an 

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open question. 
Iran's public position, as 

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stated by both the Kia and Fars 
that all of this is premature 

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because no such commitment has 
been made. 

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The Doha talks on Monday between
Iran's senior negotiating 

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delegation and Qatari mediators 
coordinating with the United 

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States were described by Tisnim 
as generally positive, That is a

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calibrated formulation. 
Generally positive means the 

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talks did not collapse. 
It means the channel is open. 

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It means some forward movement 
was recorded. 

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It does not confirm what was 
conceded or agreed. 

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The Qatari mediation channel has
been running for several weeks, 

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playing the role Oman played in 
the earlier phase of the 

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conflict. 
The fact that Iran's negotiating

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team traveled to Doha on the 
same day American forces 

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conducted self-defense strikes 
near Bandar Abbas is itself a 

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signal the diplomatic track has 
acquired A resilience that the 

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military track has repeatedly 
tested and failed to destroy The

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blockades. 100 ship was 
intercepted in this period. the 

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United States Navy has now 
redirected 100 commercial 

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vessels attempting to enter or 
leave Iranian port since the 

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blockade began on April 13th. 
That figure, 100 ships in 44 

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days, represents A sustained 
assault on Iran's economic 

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position that is compounding 
with every additional 

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interception. 
Oil exports blocked, imports 

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denied. 
Iranian financial institutions 

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further isolated insurance costs
for the rare vessel that does 

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seek to move Iranian cargo 
rising with each passing week. 

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The economic pressure function 
of this conflict, which began 

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with the aerial campaign, has 
been running on blockade alone 

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since mid-april. 
It does not require active 

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combat operations. 
It simply requires the Navy to 

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maintain its position and Iran 
to remain unable to force the 

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ships through. 
Iranian President Massoud 

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Posseski and addressed the 
nuclear question on Sunday. 

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He said Iran is ready to 
reassure the world that it is 

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not seeking nuclear weapons. 
He added that negotiators will 

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not compromise when it comes to 
the country's honor and dignity.

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Both parts of that statement 
need to be read carefully. 

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The first is a message to 
Washington and the international

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community. 
Iran is not an obstacle. 

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Iran accepts that some 
reassurance is necessary. 

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Iran does not want a bomb. 
The second is a message to the 

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domestic audience, the IRGC, the
Assembly of Experts, the hard 

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line faction. 
Iran will not capitulate, will 

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not sign terms that read as 
national humiliation, and will 

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not accept an agreement in which
the other side claims total 

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victory. 
For a deal to be reachable, both

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of those things need to be 
simultaneously true. 

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Whether they are compatible with
a specific wording American 

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officials are presenting is the 
question at the center of the 

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stalemate. 
The enrichment question deserves

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extended attention because its 
roots extend far beyond the 

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current conflict. 
Iran has enriched uranium 

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domestically for more than two 
decades. 

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The program survived the 2015 
nuclear agreement, in which Iran

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accepted limits on enrichment 
but not its elimination. 

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It survived the American 
withdrawal from that agreement 

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in 2018. 
It survived maximum pressure 

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sanctions under the first Trump 
administration. 

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It survived the preliminary 
strikes of June 2025. 

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It survived the opening 40 days 
of Operation Epic Fury. 

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It is not simply a technical 
capability. 

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It has become a symbol of 
sovereign scientific 

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achievement, of resistance to 
sustain external coercion, of 

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the Islamic Republic's capacity 
to develop advanced technology 

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under decades of international 
pressure. 

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Khamenei's father, the late 
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, 

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spent the last decade of his 
life declaring that the 

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enrichment program was a non 
negotiable red line. 

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Mojtaba Khamenei inherited both 
the position and the ideological

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framework surrounding it. 
To sign a document committing 

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Iran to suspending enrichment 
and disposing of the stockpile 

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is therefore not a technical 
transaction. 

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It is a fundamental revision of 
what the Islamic Republic has 

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publicly stood for. 
It requires the Supreme leader 

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to tell the IRGC, the hard line 
establishment and the Iranian 

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public that the red line, 
defined and defended over 

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decades, has now been traded 
away. 

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That may be achievable under the
right conditions, if the 

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suspension is framed as 
temporary, if Iran retains A 

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theoretical right to enrich at 
some future point under a 

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comprehensive final agreement, 
if the gains are tangible and 

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immediate, and if the framing 
allows Tehran to present the 

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outcome as a sovereign choice 
rather than impose defeat. 

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The sequencing and language 
matter enormously. 

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Agreements that are 
substantively identical can be 

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politically viable or 
politically lethal, depending 

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entirely on how they are 
presented to the domestic 

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audience. 
Trump's public posture has 

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complicated that framing in ways
that may not be entirely 

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accidental. 
His Truth Social post in capital

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letters stating that his 
administration will not allow 

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any enrichment, removes in 
public precisely the ambiguity 

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Iranian negotiators need to 
present a deal as anything other

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than unconditional surrender. 
Reports emerged earlier this 

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month that the United States 
might accept civilian grade 

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enrichment below the 3.67% limit
from the 2015 agreement. 

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Trump contradicted those reports
directly. 

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Rubio reiterated the American 
position from India last week. 

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Stop enriching. 
Give up the stockpile. 

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He added his consistent 
formulation. 

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This problem will be solved one 
way or another. 

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That phrase is not incidental. 
It is a standing signal that the

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military option remains 
available in Washington. 

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The political dimension of the 
negotiation has also evolved. 

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00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:09,040
Republican senators who have 
been broadly supportive of the 

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operation are beginning to ask 
for definition. 

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What constitutes success? 
What does a final agreement need

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to contain? 
At what point does sustain 

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00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:22,120
military and economic pressure 
become indefinite, open-ended 

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conflict? 
Those questions are not yet 

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producing legislative action. 
The war powers framework remains

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00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:32,560
stable, but the conversations 
are occurring, and the 

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00:11:32,560 --> 00:11:36,040
administration is aware that the
political window for maintaining

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00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:39,400
the current posture without a 
visible diplomatic result is not

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unlimited. 
Trump needs a deal he can 

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present as a win. 
The 89 days of pressure give him

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00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:49,760
the standing to describe a deal 
on favorable terms, but that 

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00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:53,040
standing erodes if the waiting 
extends further without 

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resolution. 
There is a related question that

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has received less attention than
the nuclear file, but that 

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00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:01,760
shapes everything else in the 
negotiation, the internal 

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00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:05,000
Iranian political situation and 
whether the people conducting 

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00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:07,040
these talks have the authority 
to conclude them. 

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00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:11,160
The Iranian negotiating team in 
Doha is led by senior officials 

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who report through the Foreign 
Ministry. 

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The foreign ministry reports to 
President Posseschian. 

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Posseschian is a reformist who 
ran on a platform of reengaging 

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00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:23,680
with the West and who has spoken
publicly in constructive terms 

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about Iran's willingness to 
provide assurances on its 

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nuclear intentions. 
But the Foreign Ministry is not 

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00:12:29,680 --> 00:12:32,320
the final authority in Iranian 
decision making. 

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00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,840
The Supreme National Security 
Council, which coordinates the 

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00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:38,920
country's strategic policy, also
has a role. 

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00:12:39,320 --> 00:12:42,840
The IRGC, which controls 
significant parts of Iran's 

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00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:46,040
military and economic 
infrastructure, has a stake in 

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00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:48,800
any outcome. 
An ultimate authority rests with

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00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:51,560
Mojtaba Khamenei, whose 
endorsement of the broad 

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00:12:51,560 --> 00:12:55,760
template, if real, is necessary 
but not sufficient for a deal to

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00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:59,080
be concluded and implemented. 
The pattern of Iranian decision 

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00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:02,200
making throughout this conflict 
has illustrated that gap between

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00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:06,160
negotiating and deciding. 
Repeatedly, Iranian officials 

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00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:09,360
have signaled flexibility 
through intermediaries, then 

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00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:11,400
pulled back under pressure from 
hardliners. 

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The Foreign Ministry has said 
one thing, while IRGC commanders

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00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:18,200
have said another. 
Posseschian has spoken in 

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constructive terms, while Common
A's own public statements have 

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00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:25,040
maintained defiance. 
That internal incoherence is not

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00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:28,640
accidental, and it is not simply
a negotiating tactic. 

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It reflects A genuine 
distribution of power inside the

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00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:35,400
Iranian system in which no 
single actor can commit the 

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00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:39,000
entire apparatus to a course of 
action that other actors oppose.

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00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:41,840
The Doha delegation can reach an
agreement. 

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Whether that agreement survives 
the journey through the Supreme 

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00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:48,760
National Security Council passed
the Irgcs institutional 

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00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:52,440
interests and de Kamenes desk 
for final authorization is a 

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00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:55,800
separate question entirely. 
Russia and China have been 

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00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:57,760
watching these negotiations 
closely. 

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00:13:58,160 --> 00:14:00,800
Both countries have maintained 
their alignment with Iran 

253
00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:03,720
throughout the conflict, 
condemning the American military

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00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:06,840
operation, calling for a 
ceasefire, and opposing the 

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00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:08,800
blockade in international 
forums. 

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00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:12,560
Moscow and Beijing both have 
economic interests in Iranian 

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00:14:12,560 --> 00:14:15,920
oil and strategic interests in 
preventing a settlement that 

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00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:19,080
consolidated American influence 
over the region's security 

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00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:21,880
architecture. 
Neither country has a formal 

260
00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:25,560
role in the current Doha 
mediation, but both countries 

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00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:28,720
have lines of communication to 
Tehran, and both have capacity 

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00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:31,880
to either encourage or 
discourage Iranian flexibility, 

263
00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,720
depending on their assessment of
what a deal would mean for their

264
00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:37,560
own interests. 
The US Iran agreement that opens

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00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:41,280
the Strait, lifts the blockade 
and begins a 60 day nuclear 

266
00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:44,960
negotiation with ease global oil
markets reduce inflationary 

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00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:48,240
pressure on import dependent 
economies and be presented by 

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00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:51,280
the Trump administration as a 
major diplomatic success. 

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00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:55,040
That outcome is not obviously in
Moscow's or Beijing. 

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00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:58,520
Short term interest. 
Russian oil revenue benefits 

271
00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:02,640
from elevated global prices. 
Chinese leverage over Iran 

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00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:05,480
increases the longer Tehran 
remains isolated. 

273
00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:09,280
The degree to which Russian and 
Chinese advice to Tehran is 

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00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:12,560
encouraging resolution or 
prolonging the stalemate is not 

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00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:16,400
knowable from outside, but it is
a factor that American planners 

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00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:20,400
are aware of and that shapes the
broader geopolitical context in 

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00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:21,880
which the deal making is 
occurring. 

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00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:25,560
In the Lebanese theater. 
Overnight, Israeli strikes 

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00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:28,280
continued. 
Netanyahu has been consistent 

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00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:30,520
throughout. 
Israel's campaign against 

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00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:34,280
Hezbollah is not subject to any 
US Iran ceasefire arrangement. 

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00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:37,680
From Israel's perspective, 
Hezbollah's disarmament and 

283
00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:40,920
northern Israel's security are 
objectives that precede and 

284
00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:44,200
supersede the bilateral US Iran 
diplomatic track. 

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00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:47,400
From Iran's perspective, an 
agreement in which Israel 

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00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:51,440
continues to strike Lebanon 
while Tehran holds fire violates

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00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:53,520
the fundamental premise of the 
ceasefire. 

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00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:57,360
This asymmetry that Washington 
can commit the United States but

289
00:15:57,360 --> 00:16:00,480
cannot commit Israel is one of 
the structural features of the 

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00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:03,200
negotiation that receives less 
public attention than the 

291
00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:06,320
nuclear question but may be 
equally difficult to navigate. 

292
00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:09,880
If Iran signs a milieu and 
Israel escalates significantly 

293
00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:13,080
in Lebanon the following day, 
Tehran will face immediate 

294
00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:16,360
domestic pressure to walk away 
from whatever it has just signed

295
00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:20,120
on the energy markets. 
The past 48 hours illustrated 

296
00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:22,360
the equilibriums fragility with 
precision. 

297
00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:26,200
Trump's Saturday description of 
the deal as largely negotiated 

298
00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:30,520
briefly pushed Brent crude below
$88 per barrel, reflecting 

299
00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:32,800
market pricing of imminent 
straight reopening. 

300
00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:36,560
By Monday, after the Kia's 
rebuttal and the Fars denial of 

301
00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:39,840
nuclear commitments, oil had 
largely reversed that move. 

302
00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:43,920
Markets repriced the extended 
uncertainty quickly and 

303
00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:46,720
comprehensively. 
The episode demonstrated 

304
00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:49,720
something important. 
Positive signals from Washington

305
00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:53,480
can move oil prices in a matter 
of hours, but the reversal 

306
00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:57,400
happens with equal speed. 
The market sensitivity to each 

307
00:16:57,400 --> 00:17:00,680
development in this negotiation 
is itself a form of pressure on 

308
00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:04,280
the negotiators, because a deal 
that is announced and then falls

309
00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:07,000
apart will be more damaging to 
market confidence than the 

310
00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:10,800
current sustained uncertainty. 
Global supply chains remain 

311
00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,520
disrupted. 
The OECDS most recent 

312
00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:16,599
projections incorporate an 
extended straight closure as 

313
00:17:16,599 --> 00:17:19,000
their base case, not as a tail 
risk. 

314
00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:22,280
Shipping companies have now had 
three months to reroute their 

315
00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:24,880
logistics around the Persian 
Gulf, and some of those 

316
00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:27,760
rerouting decisions are becoming
structurally embedded in 

317
00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:29,720
contracts and infrastructure 
investment. 

318
00:17:30,120 --> 00:17:33,120
The longer the straight remains 
contested, the more of that 

319
00:17:33,120 --> 00:17:35,920
rerouting becomes permanent 
rather than temporary. 

320
00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:39,600
When the straight eventually 
reopens, the full restoration of

321
00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:42,680
pre conflict traffic patterns 
will take longer than a simple 

322
00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:45,720
reopening would suggest because 
some of the rerouting is now 

323
00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:48,480
baked into long term shipping 
agreements that cannot be 

324
00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:51,880
unwound overnight. the United 
States says the agreement will 

325
00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:55,720
be signed in the coming days. 
Iran says nothing is imminent. 

326
00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,960
Common A has reportedly endorsed
the broad template, according to

327
00:17:59,960 --> 00:18:02,720
Washington. 
Tehran has not confirmed that 

328
00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:05,480
publicly. 
The Doha talks were generally 

329
00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:08,320
positive. 
They produced no announcement. 

330
00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:12,200
The blockade has now intercepted
100 ships. 

331
00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:15,760
Consider the position of each 
side entering day 90. 

332
00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:18,480
Washington holds significant 
leverage. 

333
00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:22,120
The military destruction of 
Iran's air defenses, nuclear 

334
00:18:22,120 --> 00:18:25,360
infrastructure, naval 
capability, and proxy networks 

335
00:18:25,360 --> 00:18:29,240
over 89 days has left Iran in a 
substantially weaker military 

336
00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:31,840
position than it occupied on 
February 27th. 

337
00:18:32,360 --> 00:18:35,520
The blockade is strangling 
Iran's oil revenues at a moment 

338
00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:38,360
when those revenues are 
essential to maintaining public 

339
00:18:38,360 --> 00:18:40,080
order and government 
functionality. 

340
00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:43,960
Trump has a domestic political 
incentive to close the deal. 

341
00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:47,320
A sign agreement would be a 
major foreign policy achievement

342
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,800
and would validate the decision 
to launch Operation Epic Fury. 

343
00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:55,280
Every day without a signature is
a day the operations cost human 

344
00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:58,360
and financial compound. 
Without visible resolution, 

345
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:02,560
Iran's position is harder to 
summarize cleanly because Iran's

346
00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:05,280
goals are multiple and partly 
contradictory. 

347
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:10,240
Iran wants the blockade lifted. 
Iran needs the oil revenues. 

348
00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:13,200
Iran wants international 
sanctions eased. 

349
00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:16,520
Those are all achievable through
the MO U framework. 

350
00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:20,720
But Iran also needs to avoid 
signing a document that domestic

351
00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:23,320
hardliners can credibly describe
as surrender. 

352
00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:27,280
Iran needs to preserve some 
pathway to a future enrichment 

353
00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:30,120
capability. 
Iran wants guarantees about 

354
00:19:30,120 --> 00:19:33,600
Lebanon and about Israeli 
behavior that the United States 

355
00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:37,480
cannot unilaterally provide. 
Iran needs the supreme leader to

356
00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,920
be able to present whatever is 
agreed as a victory rather than 

357
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:43,680
a defeat. 
Those requirements are harder to

358
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:46,960
satisfy within the wording that 
the American side is currently 

359
00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,280
presenting. 
The specific question of 

360
00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:52,560
wording, which words appear in 
the memorandum of understanding,

361
00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,200
in what order, with what 
conditional clauses, and what 

362
00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:58,320
escape provisions may ultimately
be the thing that determines 

363
00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:01,520
whether this deal closes. 
Both sides are close enough to 

364
00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:04,040
an agreement that the 
substantive gaps are narrowing. 

365
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:07,880
But wording matters enormously 
in diplomatic documents because 

366
00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:10,520
wording determines how the 
document can be read in Tehran 

367
00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:13,760
to domestic hardliners, how it 
can be read in Washington to 

368
00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:17,400
congressional Hawks, how it can 
be used by either side if the 60

369
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:19,880
day negotiating process 
subsequently fails. 

370
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:23,680
A deal that collapses inside 60 
days is worse than no deal 

371
00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,640
because it would discredit the 
diplomatic track and produce 

372
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:30,040
renewed military pressure with 
more legitimacy and less 

373
00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:33,000
international sympathy than the 
original operation commanded. 

374
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:37,600
Day 89 ends where Day 88 ended, 
with a deal closer than it has 

375
00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:40,600
been at any previous point in 
this conflict and still 

376
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,200
insigned. 
The pressure on both sides to 

377
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:46,000
find a resolution is higher than
it has ever been. 

378
00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,760
The cost of continued failure is
also higher than it has ever 

379
00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:51,800
been. 
Something will give. 

380
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:55,880
The question is what and when? 
If this podcast is helping you 

381
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:59,280
make sense of what is happening,
take 2 seconds to leave a five 

382
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:01,840
star rating on Spotify or Apple 
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383
00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:05,480
It makes a huge difference to 
how many people find the show. 

384
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,000
And if you want the deeper 
breakdown of what is really 

385
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,680
going on and where this is 
heading, you can unlock the 

386
00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:14,280
premium episodes directly in 
Spotify or Apple Podcasts. 

387
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:19,760
This has been episode 89 of Epic
Fury, the US Iran war podcast 

388
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,800
Day 89. 
The deal is described as largely

389
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,840
negotiated. 
The signature has not come. 

390
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:29,800
The blockade has reached 100 
ships. 

391
00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:33,760
The enrichment question remains 
the central obstacle, and the 

392
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:37,400
clock continues to run. 
We will be back very soon.