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Iran rejected the 45 days 
ceasefire. 

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Trump said the entire country 
could be taken out in one night 

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and that night might be 
tomorrow. 

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Israel struck S Pars, Iran's 
largest gas field, the beating 

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heart of its domestic energy 
supply. 

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Iran's IRGC intelligence chief 
was killed. 15 Americans were 

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wounded overnight in Kuwait. 
The King Fod Causeway linking 

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Saudi Arabia to Bahrain was 
closed over attack threats. 

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And Defense Secretary Hegseth 
told reporters today will be the

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largest volume of strike since 
day one tomorrow, even more than

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today. 
It is Tuesday, April 7th, 2026, 

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day 39 of Operation Epic Fury. 
At 8:00 tonight Eastern Time, 

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Trump's 4th power plant deadline
expires. 

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Whether it expires with strikes 
or with another extension is the

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question this war has been 
building toward for 17 days. 

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This is episode 39 of Epic Fury,
the US Iran War podcast. 

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Follow on Spotify and Apple 
Podcast to stay with this story 

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as it develops. 
Let's get into it. 

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Start with the ceasefire 
rejection because it defines 

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everything that followed on 
Monday and sets the stage for 

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what happens at 8:00 tonight. 
Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey, the 

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three countries that have been 
most actively working on a 

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diplomatic off ramp, jointly put
forward a 45 day ceasefire 

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proposal on Monday. 
The proposal, sent 

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simultaneously to Iranian 
Foreign Minister Arachi and U.S.

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Special envoy Steve Witkoff, 
call for a 45 day pause and 

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hostilities and the reopening of
the Strait of Hormuz during that

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window, with a 45 days intended 
to provide enough time for 

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comprehensive negotiations 
toward a permanent ceasefire. 

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Iranian and Omani officials were
also separately working on a 

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mechanism for administering the 
Strait. 2 Mideast officials 

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briefed on the negotiations 
confirmed the proposals 

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existence and structure to The 
Associated Press Iran rejected 

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it. 
The same day, Iran's state-run 

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media reported that Tehran wants
a permanent end to the war. 

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Not a pause, not a 45 day 
window, but a comprehensive 

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settlement that addresses all 
outstanding issues 

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simultaneously. 
Iran's foreign ministry 

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spokesman said negotiations are 
entirely incompatible with 

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ultimatums, crimes and threats 
of war crimes. 

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Iran also submitted its own 10 
point counter proposal through 

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the Pakistan Intermediary 
Channel to Washington. 

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The 10 points include demands 
for easing of sanctions, formal 

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endorsement of Iran's nuclear 
rights under the Non 

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Proliferation Treaty, 
acknowledgement of Iranian 

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jurisdiction over the Strait of 
Hormuz, and reimbursement for 

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economic harm caused by the 
conflict. 

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That last point is the 
reparations demand that no 

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American administration could 
accept. 

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The others map roughly to Iran's
established negotiating 

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positions throughout this 
conflict, positions that the 

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United States designated as non 
starters from the beginning. 

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The 45 day proposal deserves a 
moment of examination on its own

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terms because it represents 
something genuinely new in the 

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diplomatic architecture of this 
conflict. 

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Previous ceasefire overtures, 
the China, Pakistan 5 point 

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initiative, the Islamabad 
consortium proposal were broad 

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frameworks calling for de 
escalation. 

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The Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey 
proposal was specific. 45 days 

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Hormuz reopened talks within the
window. 

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It had a mechanism, a timeline, 
and a defined outcome. 

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It was designed to give both 
sides something Trump a visible 

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win on Hormuz, Iran, a pause in 
the bombing without requiring 

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either side to accept the other.
Score political demands before 

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hostility stopped. 
That is the architecture of 

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every successful ceasefire 
negotiation in modern history. 

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Decouple the immediate military 
pause from the unresolved 

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political questions. 
Stop the killing, then 

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negotiate. 
The distinction between Iran's 

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rejection of the 45 day proposal
and its submission of a 10 point

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counterproposal on the same day 
is worth examining carefully. 

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A country that is categorically 
refusing to negotiate would not 

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submit a counterproposal. 
A country that is submitting a 

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counterproposal is by definition
engaging in the negotiating 

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process, even if the terms it is
proposing are unacceptable to 

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the other side. 
The simultaneous rejection and 

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counter offer is the diplomatic 
equivalent of saying not on 

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these terms, but we are still at
the table. 

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That is not nothing, it is not a
deal, but it is the continued 

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existence of the diplomatic 
infrastructure through which a 

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deal could eventually be built. 
The question is whether that 

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infrastructure survives the next
few hours. 

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Trump's response to the 
ceasefire rejection with the 

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most escalatory public statement
he has made since the war began,

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he told reporters at a White 
House news conference. 

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The entire country can be taken 
out in one night, and that night

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might be tomorrow night, he 
confirmed when asked directly 

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whether Tuesday at 8:00 in the 
evening was his final deadline. 

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With a single word. 
Yeah. 

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He said he is not at all 
concerned about committing 

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possible war crimes. 
He said Iran is going to pay a 

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big price. 
He said the only one that is 

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going to set a ceasefire is me. 
I haven't set any ceasefire. 

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And he expanded the threat from 
power plants to the entire 

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country, plants, bridges, oil 
wells, desalina tion facilities,

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everything. 
The statement that he is not at 

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all concerned about committing 
war crimes is the most legally 

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significant thing an American 
president has said publicly in 

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decades of Modern Warfare. 
Previous administrations, 

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including those that conducted 
operations widely criticized 

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under international humanitarian
law, maintained at minimum, a 

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rhetorical commitment to 
compliance with the laws of 

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armed conflict. 
Trump's on camera dismissal of 

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war crimes concern at a White 
House press conference is not 

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merely A provocative statement. 
It is a formal presidential 

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communication that the 
administration does not regard 

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international humanitarian law 
as a constraint on its targeting

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decisions. 
United Nations spokesperson 

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Stefan Dejaric responded 
directly, telling journalists 

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that any attack on civilian 
infrastructure is a violation of

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international law, and a very 
clear one. 

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The UN statement was not hedged 
or diplomatic. 

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It was a direct characterization
of the threatened strikes as 

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illegal under international law,
issued publicly on the record by

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the secretary general spokesman.
That expansion is significant. 

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In previous iterations of the 
deadline, the specific threat 

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was to power plants and desalina
tion facilities. 

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On Monday, Trump said. 
Everything over there, every 

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power plant, every bridge, every
oil well, the whole country. 

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Hexeth confirmed the escalating 
tempo at the same briefing. 

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Today will be the largest volume
of strike since day one tomorrow

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even more than today. 
That is not the language of a 

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president or a Defense Secretary
seeking A diplomatic off ramp. 

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It is the language of an 
administration that has decided 

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the Tuesday deadline will be 
executed. 

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Trump also revealed new details 
of the F15 E rescue operation at

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Monday's press conference, 
saying it involved 155 aircraft 

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and very heavy enemy fire and 
that the pilot climbed cliffs 

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while bleeding before 
extraction. 

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The Joint Chiefs chairman, 
General Dan Kane, described the 

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weapons systems officer as 
having evaded Iranians using 

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every means available, adding 
that the officers absolute 

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commitment to surviving made 
much of their efforts possible. 

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He gave the officer the call 
sign. 

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Dude 44 B. 
That level of detail, provided 

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at a Monday White House press 
conference one day before the 

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power plant deadline, is not 
coincidental. 

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It is a deliberate communication
to the American public about 

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what this war is costing and 
about the human courage it is 

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producing. 
It is Trump and Cain 

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simultaneously justifying 
escalation, humanizing the 

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soldiers who bear its 
consequences. 

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Israel struck the South Pars 
natural gas field on Monday, a 

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target that carries 
extraordinary significance 

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because it is the world's 
largest natural gas field, 

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shared between Iran and Qatar, 
and it is the primary source of 

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domestic energy for Iran's 93 
million people. 

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The South Pars strike was 
described by Israel as aimed at 

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eliminating a major source of 
revenue for Iran. 

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But the field's role in domestic
energy production means this 

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strike is not merely an economic
blow. 

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It is a direct degradation of 
Iran's capacity to heat homes, 

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power hospitals and maintain 
basic industrial function. 

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Israel struck a similar target 
in March. 

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That attack prompted Iran to 
retaliate against energy 

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infrastructure in Qatar and 
across the Gulf, producing one 

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of the war's most significant 
regional escalations. 

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Monday's South Par strike 
arrives on the eve of Trump's 

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Tuesday deadline, suggesting 
that Israel is accelerating its 

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targeting of Iranian energy 
infrastructure. 

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In coordination with we're 
slightly ahead of whatever Trump

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decides at 8:00 tonight. 
The South Par's fields 

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connection to Qatar adds a 
further diplomatic dimension. 

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Qatar shares the field with Iran
under a different name, the 

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North Dome field. 
Qatar has been one of the 

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quieter actors in this conflict,
hosting the US Al Udiyid Air 

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Base, absorbing Iranian strikes 
on its energy infrastructure, 

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and maintaining a study 
neutrality in the diplomatic 

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positioning. 
Striking the shared gas field 

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that underpins both Iranian 
domestic energy and a 

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significant portion of Qatari 
LNG exports is a message from 

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Israel to Tehran. 
No resource that sustains your 

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economy and your population's 
daily existence is outside the 

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targeting calculus. 
It is also a message that the 

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alliance between the United 
States and Israel in this 

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conflict is pursuing A 
comprehensive economic 

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degradation strategy alongside 
the military campaign, not just 

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dismantling Iran's weapons, but 
dismantling its capacity to 

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sustain a modern state. 
Israel also struck 3 Tehran 

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airports overnight, Brahm, 
Meribat and Asmayish, hitting 

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dozens of helicopters and 
aircraft belonging to the 

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Iranian Air Force. 
Meribad International Airport is

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Iran's main domestic airport and
was before the War One of the 

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busiest airports in the Middle 
East, striking it while 

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simultaneously striking Bahram 
and Asmayish. 

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The second of which is a 
research and test facility, 

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eliminates what remains of 
Iran's Rotary and fixed wing 

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military aviation capability in 
the Capital Region and also 

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degrades the civilian aviation 
infrastructure that any post war

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Iranian government would need to
restore normal life. 

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Smoke rose near Tehran's Zodi 
Square after a strike hit the 

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grounds of Sharif University of 
Technology, one of Iran's most 

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prestigious engineering and 
technical universities. 

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Multiple countries have 
sanctioned the university for 

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its work with the Iranian 
military, particularly on 

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ballistic missile development, 
which provides a military 

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00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:10,120
justification for the strike. 
But Sharif University is also 

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00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:13,760
where Iran's best engineers, 
mathematicians and physicists 

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are educated. 
Those students are not the IRGC,

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00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:20,240
they are the civilian 
intellectual capital of a 

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country that will need them to 
rebuild when this war ends. 

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Iran's IRGC intelligence chief, 
Major General Magic Kademi, was 

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00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:32,480
killed in a strike early Monday.
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei 

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00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:35,320
acknowledged the killing in a 
statement, saying Kademi had 

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00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:38,840
spent decades in quiet and 
devoted service in the field of 

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00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:41,040
security, intelligence and 
defense. 

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00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:43,880
He added that the unbroken ranks
of the combatants form a 

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00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:46,800
towering front that terrorism 
and crime cannot crack. 

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00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:50,360
A public defiance statement from
a supreme leader who had himself

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00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:53,640
been installed only weeks ago 
after his father's assassination

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00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:55,240
in the opening strikes of this 
war. 

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00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:58,720
The killing of the IRGC 
intelligence chief, the man who 

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00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:02,280
coordinated the Irgc's internal 
security operations and its 

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00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:06,000
intelligence collection, is a 
significant decapitation strike 

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00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:07,920
at a particularly a sensitive 
moment. 

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00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:11,160
Intelligence chiefs know things 
that no one else in the command 

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00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:14,960
structure knows Sources, 
networks, operational secrets, 

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00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:17,920
vulnerabilities. 
Removing that institutional 

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00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:21,600
knowledge from the IRGC at this 
specific moment, on the eve of a

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00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:24,440
deadline that may produce the 
most intensive strikes of the 

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00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:27,560
entire war, is either a 
deliberate preparation for an 

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00:12:27,560 --> 00:12:30,240
escalation that the United 
States and Israel intend to 

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00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:33,360
execute or a last warning 
designed to demonstrate that no 

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00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:35,840
corner of the Iranian command 
structure is safe. 

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00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:39,680
Iran hit back across the region 
on Monday night and into 

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00:12:39,680 --> 00:12:42,840
Tuesday. 
An Iranian drone strike on Ali 

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00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:46,840
Al Salem Air base in Kuwait 
overnight injured 15 Americans. 

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00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:50,680
Most have returned to duty. 
The total number of US service 

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00:12:50,680 --> 00:12:53,960
members injured since the start 
of Operation Epic Fury has now 

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00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:58,280
reached 373, a figure that has 
received far less attention than

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00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:01,280
the 13 deaths, but which 
represents an extraordinary 

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00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:03,960
toll. 
For context, the United States 

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00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:07,840
suffered approximately 478 
killed and several thousand 

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00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:11,840
wounded in all of the Gulf War 
of 1991, a conflict that lasted 

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00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:15,040
43 days. 
Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi 

236
00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:18,880
Arabia all activated air defense
systems to intercept incoming 

237
00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:22,440
Iranian missiles and drones. 
Iran hit power and water 

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00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:26,120
desalina tion plants in Kuwait, 
knocking out power generation 

239
00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:28,520
units. 
Iran struck the oil sector 

240
00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:31,760
complex in Shawake, hitting 
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation 

241
00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:34,800
headquarters and multiple 
operational facilities, causing 

242
00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:38,400
fires at several sites. 
Former Iranian Foreign Minister 

243
00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:41,920
Ali Akbar Velayati urged Arab 
countries to discourage Trump 

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00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:45,160
from striking power plants, 
warning the entire region would 

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00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:48,440
go dark if that happens. 
The King Fad Causeway, the 

246
00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:51,560
bridge linking Saudi Arabia's 
Eastern Province to Bahrain 

247
00:13:51,560 --> 00:13:55,280
across the Gulf, was closed 
early Tuesday over threats from 

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00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:58,640
Iranian attacks. 
The King Fod Causeway is not 

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00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:02,480
just an infrastructure link, is 
the only land route between the 

250
00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:05,960
two countries used daily by 10s 
of thousands of people, 

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00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:08,720
including Saudi workers, 
Bahraini commuters and 

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00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:11,480
commercial freight. 
Closing it is both a security 

253
00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:14,800
precaution and a visible symbol 
of how thoroughly this war has 

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00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:18,160
disrupted the ordinary civic and
economic life of Gulf states 

255
00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:20,800
that are not combats. 
Two countries that depend on 

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00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:23,840
each other for workers, trade 
and daily movement have been 

257
00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:26,800
severed by the threat of Iranian
attack on a bridge. 

258
00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:30,680
The closure of the King Fod 
Causeway is also a data point 

259
00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:34,960
about the regional calculus. 
Saudi Arabia is not a combatant 

260
00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:37,560
in this war. 
It is not struck Iran. 

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00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:41,440
It has hosted U.S. forces, 
absorbed Iranian drone and 

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00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:45,200
missile attacks for 39 days, 
rerouted oil exports through its

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00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:48,840
Trans Arabian pipeline at 
significant logistical cost, and

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00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:51,800
contributed diplomatically to 
the Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey 

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00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:54,840
ceasefire initiative. 
And yet, on Tuesday morning, 

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00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:58,840
Saudi Arabia closed its only 
land bridge to its Gulf neighbor

267
00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:01,080
because Iran has threatened to 
attack it. 

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00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:04,960
That is the cumulative effect of
39 days of sustained Iranian 

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00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:08,120
strikes against states that did 
not start this war and cannot 

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00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:09,560
end it. 
A region in which no 

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00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:14,080
infrastructure, no bridge, no 
refinery, no Desalina tion plant

272
00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:17,040
and no civilian building can be 
presumed safe from the weapon 

273
00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:19,360
that Iran is deploying most 
indiscriminately. 

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00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:22,960
The threat itself Israel 
separately issued a warning to 

275
00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:26,120
Iranian civilians to avoid 
taking trains until at least 

276
00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:29,120
nine in the evening local time 
on Tuesday, a warning that 

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00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:32,040
explicitly signals railways as a
forthcoming target. 

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00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:36,160
Iran's Internet blackout means 
that most Iranians cannot see 

279
00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:39,120
this warning directly. 
Farsi language satellite 

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00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:42,400
networks abroad carry the 
warnings back into Iran, but the

281
00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:45,680
reliability of that transmission
chain varies significantly by 

282
00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:49,200
region and access. 
Israelis warning Iranians about 

283
00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:52,480
upcoming strikes via Farsi 
language satellite networks 

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00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:55,600
while Iran's own government 
maintains a complete Internet 

285
00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:59,040
blackout on its population, is 
one of the more extraordinary 

286
00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:01,640
information asymmetries produced
by this conflict. 

287
00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:04,200
It also raises A genuine legal 
question. 

288
00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:06,960
Can a warning transmitted 
through satellite channels that 

289
00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:10,080
most of the affected population 
cannot receive constitute 

290
00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:13,240
adequate notification under 
international humanitarian law? 

291
00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:16,840
The Internet blackout Iran has 
imposed on its own population, 

292
00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:20,680
now in its 39th day, means 10s 
of millions of Iranians are 

293
00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,600
being bombed in a country where 
they cannot access any 

294
00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:26,880
independent information about 
what is being targeted, when or 

295
00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:32,720
why. 373 American service 
members injured 15 more 

296
00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:37,560
overnight in Kuwait, 4 dead in 
Haifa, The King FOD Causeway 

297
00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:41,760
closed. 
S par struck. 3 Tehran airports 

298
00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:46,640
struck, Sharif University 
struck, the IRGC intelligence 

299
00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:50,320
chief killed. 
At least 29 people killed across

300
00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:53,880
Iran on Monday alone. 39 days 
in. 

301
00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:57,480
And at 8:00 tonight Eastern 
Time, the 4th version of the 

302
00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:01,400
power plant deadline expires for
the United States, the United 

303
00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:04,920
Kingdom and Australia, the three
allied democracies absorbing the

304
00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:08,599
economic cost of this conflict. 
Day 39 delivers a further 

305
00:17:08,599 --> 00:17:11,680
deterioration in the conditions 
that already defined the war's 

306
00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:14,440
domestic toll. 
Gas in the United States is 

307
00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:17,880
above $4.00 per gallon, with 
Bank of America forecasting it 

308
00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:20,920
stays there all year. 
British Gas and electricity 

309
00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:24,560
bills are rising from LNG 
disruption, with a 35 nation 

310
00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:28,160
maritime coalition that Starmer 
assembled offering no immediate 

311
00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,680
relief to households paying 
higher energy costs. 

312
00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:34,880
Today in Australia, petrol 
remains at post pandemic highs, 

313
00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:38,200
with free public transport 
maintained in two States and 

314
00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,400
Western Australian ridership at 
record levels as families adjust

315
00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:44,440
their daily behavior around fuel
prices they cannot control. 

316
00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:47,960
In all three countries, the 
domestic political pressure to 

317
00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:51,360
reach some kind of resolution is
building, even among governments

318
00:17:51,360 --> 00:17:53,520
that broadly support the war's 
objectives. 

319
00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:57,040
What Tuesday at 8 O clock 
represents from the perspective 

320
00:17:57,040 --> 00:18:00,680
of those three capitals is not 
merely a military deadline. 

321
00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:03,880
It is the moment that determines
whether the economic conditions 

322
00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:07,280
of this war get dramatically 
worse if power plants are struck

323
00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:11,320
and oil spikes to $120.00, or 
whether some form of diplomatic 

324
00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:14,360
pathway opens before the next 
phase of escalation begins. 

325
00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:18,080
Trump said yeah when asked if 
Tuesday is his final deadline. 

326
00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:22,880
Hegseth said tomorrow, even more
than today, Israel has an 

327
00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:26,560
updated target list of Iranian 
energy and infrastructure sites 

328
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:29,560
approved and awaiting an 
American green light, according 

329
00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:33,840
to Israeli sources cited by CNN.
Israel is highly skeptical a 

330
00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:38,240
deal is achievable, 1 Israeli 
source told CNN, and Netanyahu 

331
00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:41,360
has conveyed his concerns about 
possible ceasefire agreements. 

332
00:18:41,360 --> 00:18:42,880
In recent discussions with 
Trump. 

333
00:18:43,360 --> 00:18:46,640
Iran has claimed 14,000,000 
volunteers ready to fight if 

334
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,560
there is a ground invasion, a 
figure that double S the 7 

335
00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:53,280
million claimed on April 2nd, 
both figures produced by Iranian

336
00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:55,520
state television with no 
supporting evidence. 

337
00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:59,480
The volunteer claim is a piece 
of domestic information warfare,

338
00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:03,040
not a military assessment. 
Iran is trying to communicate to

339
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:06,480
its own population and to the 
outside world that it retains 

340
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,680
public support for the war 
despite the scale of destruction

341
00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,760
it has absorbed. 
It is also a direct response to 

342
00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:16,080
Trump's repeatedly stated 
interest in regime change, a 

343
00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:19,200
signal that any ground invasion 
would face mass resistance 

344
00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:20,640
rather than a collapsing 
government. 

345
00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:24,440
Whether 14,000,000 Iranians have
genuinely volunteered as the 

346
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:27,480
state claims, or whether the 
claim is inflated domestic 

347
00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:30,520
propaganda, is something that 
Iran's Internet blackout makes 

348
00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:33,120
impossible to verify from inside
the country. 

349
00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:36,440
Iran's civilian president 
privately warned weeks ago that 

350
00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:39,680
the economy faces collapse 
within three to four weeks. 

351
00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:43,400
The IRGC has barred him from the
negotiating process. 

352
00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:48,120
The 45 day ceasefire proposal 
that Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey 

353
00:19:48,120 --> 00:19:51,080
put together over the weekend 
represents the most concrete 

354
00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:54,200
diplomatic framework that has 
been tabled since the war began.

355
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:57,760
Its rejection by Iran is not the
end of the diplomatic track. 

356
00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:00,920
Iran submitted its own 10 point 
counter proposal through 

357
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:04,480
Pakistan on the same day, which 
means it is still engaging 

358
00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:07,760
through the intermediary channel
even as it publicly defies every

359
00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:10,240
deadline. 
Whether those 10 points are a 

360
00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:14,040
genuine negotiating position or 
a delayed tactic designed to buy

361
00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:16,640
time through the deadline is 
something the next few hours 

362
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:19,960
will begin to answer. 
There is one further development

363
00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:22,880
that sits in the background of 
Tuesday's deadline but has not 

364
00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:24,720
received the attention it 
deserves. 

365
00:20:25,120 --> 00:20:28,400
Eurasia Group published an 
analysis on Monday noting that 

366
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:32,280
the Iran war will continue to 
disrupt global oil supplies even

367
00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:35,360
if a ceasefire leads to a swift 
reopening of the Strait of 

368
00:20:35,360 --> 00:20:37,720
Hormuz. 
The analysis found it would take

369
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,800
several months to repair oil 
refineries and other energy 

370
00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:43,200
infrastructure in the Persian 
Gulf that have been damaged in 

371
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:46,560
the conflict, and that shipping 
companies operating oil tankers 

372
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,600
would need at least two months 
to resume operations after any 

373
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:53,560
suspension of hostilities. 
That finding reframes the entire

374
00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:56,040
economic calculus of the 
ceasefire debate. 

375
00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:59,800
The question is not just whether
oil prices fall when the war 

376
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:01,840
ends. 
It is whether the structural 

377
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,400
damage to Gulf energy 
infrastructure has already 

378
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:07,760
locked in elevated prices for 
months beyond any ceasefire 

379
00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:11,640
date, whether the war's economic
legacy outlast the war itself. 

380
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:15,680
If power plants are struck 
tonight, the 45 day ceasefire 

381
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:19,280
proposal becomes irrelevant. 
The question becomes what Iran 

382
00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:23,080
retaliates against, whether Gulf
desalina tion infrastructure is 

383
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:27,800
among the targets, and whether 
oil spikes to 120 or $130.00 per

384
00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:31,280
barrel if the deadline passes 
without strikes for the 4th 

385
00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:33,760
time. 
The credibility of every future 

386
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:37,240
Trump ultimatum is substantially
diminished, not just in this 

387
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:40,760
conflict, but as a general 
instrument of American coercive 

388
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:43,600
diplomacy. 
Neither scenario is good. 

389
00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:48,480
One is immediately catastrophic.
That is the choice that eight O 

390
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:52,400
clock tonight forces. 
The war has now struck airports,

391
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:56,360
universities, petrochemical 
plants, synagogues, gas fields, 

392
00:21:56,720 --> 00:22:01,000
all refineries, a bridge and the
homes of civilians in Haifa, Tel

393
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:03,560
Aviv and across Tehran, all in a
single day. 

394
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:06,680
It is wounded fifteen more 
Americans overnight. 

395
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,520
It is closed a Causeway that two
nations depend on. 

396
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:14,400
It has produced a ceasefire, 
rejection and a counter proposal

397
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:18,040
in the same 24 hours. 
And at 8:00 tonight, it will 

398
00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:22,240
either escalate dramatically or 
reveal for the 4th time that the

399
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:26,360
ultimatum is elastic. 
The 45th day of this war begins 

400
00:22:26,360 --> 00:22:28,120
with the world holding its 
breath. 

401
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,400
If this podcast is helping you 
make sense of what is happening,

402
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:35,240
please take 30 seconds to leave 
a review on Spotify or Apple 

403
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,000
Podcasts. 
It makes an enormous difference 

404
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:39,680
to how many people find the 
show. 

405
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:45,120
This has been episode 39 of Epic
Fury, the US Iran war podcast. 

406
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:49,320
The deadline is tonight at 839 
days in. 

407
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:53,160
Trump said yeah. 
Hegseth said even more tomorrow.

408
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:58,240
Iran sent a counter proposal. 
The ceasefire diplomacy has not 

409
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:00,760
collapsed, but it is running out
of time. 

410
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:02,920
We will be back very soon.