1 00:00:16,820 --> 00:00:20,140 Trump wants to choose Iran's next supreme leader himself. 2 00:00:20,580 --> 00:00:24,460 Iran's missile attacks on the region had dropped by 90%. 3 00:00:24,860 --> 00:00:28,420 Iran has threatened to strike Israel's nuclear facility at the 4 00:00:28,420 --> 00:00:31,140 Mona. A religious leader in Tehran has 5 00:00:31,140 --> 00:00:34,540 called for Trump's blood. Kurdish forces are preparing a 6 00:00:34,540 --> 00:00:38,560 possible ground incursion into Iran, and the total cost of this 7 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:41,640 war has crossed $5 billion in just one week. 8 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:46,720 Day 7 of Operation Epic Fury. And this conflict keeps reaching 9 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:49,360 into places nobody predicted it would go. 10 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:54,640 This is episode 7 of Epic Fury, the US Iran war podcast. 11 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:58,640 There is a great deal to cover. Let's get into it. 12 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:02,200 Begin with a statement that stopped the world in its tracks. 13 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:05,840 On Thursday, President Trump told Reuters and Axios in 14 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:09,000 separate interviews published on the same day that he personally 15 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:12,120 intends to play a role in choosing Iran's next supreme 16 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:14,800 leader. His exact words to Reuters were 17 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:16,880 these. We are going to have to choose 18 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:20,360 that person along with Iran. We are going to have to choose 19 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:23,480 that person. He drew a direct parallel to the 20 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:26,880 United States role in replacing Venezuelan President Nicolas 21 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:30,080 Maduro earlier this year, saying the two situations were 22 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:32,800 comparable. He urged the remaining leaders 23 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:36,080 of the Iranian regime to accept immunity and surrender. 24 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:38,200 He said. You're going to have a chance 25 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:41,840 after all these years to take back your country, accept 26 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:45,560 immunity, and we will be giving you really the right side of 27 00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:48,480 history. Trump also made clear who he 28 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:50,960 does not want as the next supreme leader. 29 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:54,320 Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late supreme leader who has 30 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:58,120 emerged as a front runner among Iran's Assembly of Experts, is, 31 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:02,000 in Trump's own word, unacceptable, he told reporters. 32 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:05,240 They are wasting their time. Earlier this week, Trump 33 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:07,880 revealed that most of the candidates his administration 34 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:11,120 had hoped might succeed, Common A, had already been killed in 35 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:12,920 the opening strikes of the operation. 36 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:17,000 The systematic killing of Iran's senior political and religious 37 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:19,600 figures was not, it appears, an accident. 38 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:23,160 It was a deliberate attempt to reshape the field of potential 39 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:26,160 successors before the succession process even began. 40 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:28,720 The implications of this are profound. 41 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:32,760 The president of the United States is not just bombing Iran. 42 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:36,120 He is attempting to determine who governs it when the bombs 43 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:38,480 stop. That is not a military 44 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:41,560 objective. That is regime change. 45 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:44,360 And Trump himself confirmed exactly that. 46 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:47,760 He told reporters the purpose of the strikes was effectively 47 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:50,560 regime change. It is the most explicit 48 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:53,720 statement of that objective any American president has made 49 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:57,560 about any country since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. 50 00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:00,640 And it raises the most consequential and legally 51 00:03:00,640 --> 00:03:03,320 complex question of this entire conflict. 52 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:06,960 What comes after? Trump also told reporters 53 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:09,960 something that provided one of the sharpest justifications yet 54 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:12,120 for the timing of the entire operation. 55 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:16,160 He said if we didn't hit within two weeks, they would have had a 56 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:18,600 nuclear weapon. Two weeks. 57 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:21,720 That is the intelligence assessment Trump says he was 58 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:24,720 given. Iran was not months from a bomb. 59 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:28,760 It was 2 weeks away, and the International Atomic Energy 60 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:32,760 Agency had itself discovered on February 27th, just one day 61 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:36,240 before the strikes began, that Iran had hidden highly enriched 62 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:39,160 uranium in an underground facility that had survived the 63 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:43,280 June 2025 operation. The IAEA said it could no longer 64 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:47,040 be sure Iran's nuclear program was exclusively peaceful. 65 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:50,920 That IAA finding, combined with the intelligence assessment that 66 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:53,840 Iran was two weeks from a weapon, provided the final 67 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,240 trigger. Now consider the war powers 68 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:58,360 picture. Because the political battle in 69 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:02,280 Washington reached a decisive moment on Thursday, both the 70 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:04,600 House and the Senate voted on resolutions that would have 71 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:08,240 restricted Trump's authority to continue Operation Epic Fury 72 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:11,480 without congressional approval. Both votes failed. 73 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:16,399 The Senate rejected its resolution 47 to 53 on a near 74 00:04:16,399 --> 00:04:19,360 party line vote. The House rejected its measure 75 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:24,240 212 to 219, with just two Republicans breaking with Trump 76 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:26,920 and four Democrats crossing the aisle to vote against the 77 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:29,960 resolution. The war powers challenge is, for 78 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:32,560 now, finished. Trump has congressional 79 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:36,040 acquiescence, if not formal authorization, to continue this 80 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:38,800 operation for as long as he determines necessary. 81 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:42,160 The financial cost of this conflict has now been estimated 82 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:46,160 by multiple independent analysts at more than $5 billion. 83 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:49,360 The Center for Strategic and International Studies put the 84 00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:55,120 cost of just the first 100 hours at $3.7 billion, or $891 million 85 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:57,400 per day. Democratic Congressman Joe 86 00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:00,720 Morrell, who sits on the House Appropriations Subcommittee on 87 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:04,240 Defense, estimated on Thursday that the war is costing 88 00:05:04,280 --> 00:05:07,200 approximately $1 billion every single day. 89 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:11,000 The vast majority of these costs are unbudgeted and will require 90 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:14,880 emergency supplemental spending. Democratic Congressman Morrell 91 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:17,720 noted with some bitterness that Trump had repeatedly promised 92 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:20,160 voters he would reduce government spending and that 93 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:23,120 this war is adding to the national debt at a pace not seen 94 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:25,600 since the post September 11 military buildup. 95 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:29,960 One specific cost detail deserves a moment of reflection. 96 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:34,720 A single Iranian drone strike on a radar system in Qatar damaged 97 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:37,760 a piece of equipment worth $1.1 billion. 98 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:43,480 One drone, $1.1 billion of damage in a single hit. 99 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:47,080 The symmetry between the cost of an Iranian Shahid drone, 100 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:51,720 approximately $20,000 to build, and the damage it can inflict on 101 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:55,200 American military infrastructure is one of the defining financial 102 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:57,200 dynamics of this entire conflict. 103 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:03,320 The military picture on Thursday was dominated by 1 #90%. 104 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:07,320 CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper, speaking alongside 105 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:10,880 Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at Mcdill Air Force Base in 106 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:14,920 Tampa, FL, announced that Iran's ballistic missile retaliation 107 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:17,720 against the United States and its partners has decreased by 108 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:20,680 90% since the peak of the opening days of the conflict. 109 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:24,640 He said Iran's Navy was wiped out, its missile production 110 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:29,040 capacity was being demolished, its proxy forces were, in his 111 00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:31,120 words, hardly putting up a fight. 112 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:34,640 He described the two most powerful air forces in the world 113 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:37,240 dominating the skies over the world's largest state. 114 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:40,800 Sponsor of terror Hekseth confirmed that 30 or more 115 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:43,280 Iranian ships have now been struck or sunk. 116 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:46,160 He said the next phase of the operation will focus 117 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:49,080 specifically on dismantling Tehran's missile production 118 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:52,320 base, the factories, supply chains and technical 119 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:55,440 infrastructure that Iran would need to rebuild its offensive 120 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:57,560 missile arsenal after this conflict ends. 121 00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:02,040 The message was unambiguous. the United States is not just 122 00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:06,480 destroying what Iran has, it is trying to destroy Iran's ability 123 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:10,320 to ever rebuild it. The 12th wave of Israeli strikes 124 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:12,280 was confirmed on Thursday morning. 125 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:16,160 The IDF struck Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and 126 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:19,360 bases militia targets across Tehran, including Central 127 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:22,200 Command Centers for Iran's internal security forces. 128 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:26,880 The IDF also released dramatic footage showing an Israeli F35 129 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:30,240 IA Deer stealth fighter in aerial combat firing a missile 130 00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:33,480 that destroys an Iranian Yak 130 jet over Tehran. 131 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:38,960 A dog fight over the capital of Iran in 2026 captured on video. 132 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:43,240 The IDF also confirmed it had struck the 12,000 seat indoor 133 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:45,440 arena at Tehran's Zazadi complex. 134 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:48,800 Two basic student leaders allegedly involved in the brutal 135 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:51,480 suppression of the mass and Thai government protests that 136 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:54,600 preceded the conflict were killed in Israeli airstrikes. 137 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:58,960 The Azadi complex, which houses one of Iran's most iconic sports 138 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:02,600 venues, is a landmark of Iranian cultural identity. 139 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:06,080 In a development that carries staggering symbolic weight, the 140 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:10,000 Assembly of Experts, the body of 88 senior clerics tasked with 141 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:13,560 choosing Iran's new supreme leader, was itself targeted by 142 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:16,440 Israeli airstrikes on Thursday while its members were 143 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:19,880 reportedly in session. Let that be stated clearly. 144 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:23,560 Israel bombed the meeting where Iran's religious leadership had 145 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:25,880 gathered to elect the next supreme leader. 146 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:28,760 The strategic intent is unmistakable. 147 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:32,080 Israel and the United States are not just shaping the 148 00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:35,960 battlefield, they are attempting to shape the succession itself 149 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:38,400 by eliminating the people doing the choosing. 150 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:42,720 Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami of the Assembly of Experts told Iranian 151 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:45,680 state television they were close to a conclusion but that the 152 00:08:45,680 --> 00:08:49,080 country was in a war situation. Given that the building where 153 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:51,560 they were meeting was subsequently bombed, the 154 00:08:51,560 --> 00:08:54,680 timeline for that conclusion is now entirely unclear. 155 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:58,640 The conflict expanded in a genuinely alarming new direction 156 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:01,360 on Thursday. Iran has threatened to strike 157 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:03,880 the Israeli nuclear facility at Damona. 158 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:08,200 Iran's semi official list in the news agency, citing an Iranian 159 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:11,880 military official, reported that Iran will target Damona if 160 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:14,720 Israel and the United States seek regime change in the 161 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:17,880 Islamic Republic. Damona is Israel's primary 162 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:21,360 nuclear research facility in the Najaf desert and is widely 163 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:23,880 believed by international analysts to be the site of 164 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:26,360 Israel's undeclared nuclear weapons program. 165 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:30,600 Any Iranian strike on Damona, successful or not, would 166 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:34,000 represent an escalation unlike anything seen in the entire 167 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:35,960 history of the Middle East conflict. 168 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:39,320 Israel has never confirmed the existence of nuclear weapons of 169 00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:43,400 Damona, but its reported arsenal is estimated at between 80 and 170 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:46,600 400 warheads. A strike that caused any kind of 171 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:49,840 radiological release at that site would trigger consequences 172 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:54,080 of almost unimaginable scale. An Iranian religious leader went 173 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:56,880 further. In a Friday sermon broadcast on 174 00:09:56,880 --> 00:10:00,320 Iranian state television, a senior cleric called for Trump's 175 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:02,680 blood. The sermon was inflammatory, 176 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:06,160 incendiary and representative of the rage being expressed 177 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:09,800 publicly by those within Iran who remain loyal to the Islamic 178 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:11,760 Republic. Whether these statements 179 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:14,880 represent genuine strategic intent or are designed for 180 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:18,200 domestic consumption inside Iran is difficult to determine from 181 00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:21,600 the outside, but the combination of the Damona threat and the 182 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:24,440 call for Trump's blood illustrates the degree to which 183 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:27,800 this conflict is moved beyond conventional military framing. 184 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:31,280 On the Iranian side, Kurdish forces in northern Iraq are 185 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:33,840 preparing a possible cross-border ground incursion 186 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:37,560 into Iran, according to multiple regional intelligence sources 187 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:39,880 cited by regional outlets on Thursday. 188 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:43,920 Pro American Kurdish forces have long maintained deep grievances 189 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:46,680 against the Islamic Republic for its treatment of Kurdish 190 00:10:46,680 --> 00:10:50,000 communities inside Iran. The CI as reported arming of 191 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:52,960 Kurdish rebel groups in western Iran has dramatically 192 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:55,960 accelerated the timeline for what Kurdish commanders are now 193 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,160 describing as potential direct action. 194 00:10:58,680 --> 00:11:02,000 A Kurdish ground incursion into Iran would open a third front in 195 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:05,320 this conflict, alongside the aerial campaign from the United 196 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:08,080 States and Israel and the Hezbollah front in Lebanon. 197 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:11,360 It would also mark the first time a ground forces crossed 198 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:15,360 into Iranian territory since the Iran Iraq War of the 1980s. 199 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:19,360 NATO air defenses in the eastern Mediterranean intercepted and 200 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:22,560 shot down an Iranian ballistic missile that entered Turkish 201 00:11:22,560 --> 00:11:25,160 airspace. On Thursday, Turkey and NATO 202 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:27,880 member lodged a formal protest with Iran. 203 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:31,360 This is the second confirmed incident of Iranian missiles 204 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:34,520 breaching the airspace of a country not formally at war with 205 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:37,080 Iran. The first was Azerbaijan. 206 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:40,440 The second is Turkey, a NATO members. 207 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:44,000 Air defense systems have now fired on an Iranian missile in 208 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:46,240 defense of their own sovereign territory. 209 00:11:46,680 --> 00:11:50,080 The legal and strategic implications of Iran repeatedly 210 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:52,800 striking the airspace of countries not party to this 211 00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:55,560 conflict are significant and deeply troubling. 212 00:11:55,960 --> 00:11:59,000 Iran launched a fresh wave of attacks on Thursday morning 213 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:01,480 targeting Israeli and American bases. 214 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:04,880 Iran vowed that the United States would bitterly regret the 215 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:09,040 torpedoing of the Iris Dina in the Indian Ocean, and operatives 216 00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:11,960 from Iran's Ministry of Intelligence signaled openness 217 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:14,320 to the CIA for talks on ending the war. 218 00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:18,200 The New York Times reported this development, citing officials 219 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:21,440 briefed on the matter. Iran's Intelligence Ministry, 220 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:25,400 not its foreign ministry, not its military command, but its 221 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:29,040 intelligence operatives reaching out directly to the CIA about 222 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,760 ending the war. That is an extraordinary back 223 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:34,920 channel signal happening beneath the surface of the public 224 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:38,440 rhetoric in which Iran's foreign minister insists it will not 225 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:40,640 negotiate in. Religious leaders call for 226 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:43,800 Trump's blood. the United Nations panel of experts said it 227 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:46,640 was deeply disturbed by the deaths of children following the 228 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:50,000 bombing of the Shajare Tibet Girls school in southern Iran. 229 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:54,240 The panel cited reports that more than 160 children were 230 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:56,720 killed. The investigation into the Min 231 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:59,800 of School airstrike continued with Planet Lab satellite 232 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:02,760 imagery showing the building struck appears to be within the 233 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:05,600 compound of a known Iranian military base. 234 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:09,280 But the presence of a military installation nearby does not in 235 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:13,400 any legal or moral framework justify the killing of 160 236 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:16,080 schoolchildren. This will be one of the defining 237 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:19,760 humanitarian controversies of this entire conflict for years 238 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:22,560 to come. The economic picture on Thursday 239 00:13:22,560 --> 00:13:26,320 was painted in detail by Allianz Research, which published one of 240 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:29,400 the most comprehensive economic analysis of the conflict 241 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:32,880 financial implications yet seen. Their baseline scenario? 242 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:36,480 The United States and Iran deal within four weeks associated 243 00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:38,440 with the transition of power in Iran. 244 00:13:38,680 --> 00:13:43,160 Projects bring crude oil briefly spiking to $85 a barrel before 245 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:46,680 ending the year around $70. Their middle scenario, a 246 00:13:46,680 --> 00:13:49,440 prolonged conflict with significant disruptions to the 247 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:53,560 Strait of Hormuz, projects oil reaching $100 a barrel. 248 00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:57,440 Their tail risk scenario, in which Iran successfully targets 249 00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:01,000 energy infrastructure across the region and sustains A genuine 250 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:05,600 blockade of the Strait, projects Brent crude rising above $130.00 251 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:11,160 a barrel, $130.00 a barrel. For context, the last time oil 252 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:14,720 was near that level was during the post Ukraine invasion energy 253 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:19,000 crisis of 2022. At that price, the economic pain 254 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:22,640 felt by ordinary families across Britain, Europe and the United 255 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:24,840 States would be severe and sustained. 256 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:30,720 Petrol at the pump, energy bills, food prices, airline 257 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:34,880 tickets, mortgage stress driven by central banks keeping rates 258 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:38,640 higher for longer to fight inflation, All of it connected 259 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:42,080 through a chain of economic causation to what is happening 260 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:45,160 in the skies over Tehran. The Federal Reserve and the 261 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:47,880 European Central Bank are watching this conflict with 262 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:50,880 acute anxiety. American inflation has been 263 00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:55,600 above targets since 2021. the Fed have been widely expected to 264 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:57,520 cut interest rates twice this year. 265 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:01,240 Those cuts are now endowed. The European Central Bank's 266 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:04,200 calculus is different. European inflation is better 267 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:07,360 anchored, but higher energy prices feed through into 268 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:09,920 European production costs and consumer prices. 269 00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:13,200 Regardless, the war is not just reshaping. 270 00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:17,320 Geopolitics is reshaping the economic outlook for hundreds of 271 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:20,880 millions of people who will never fire a weapon or hear an 272 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:23,960 air raid siren. Russia is emerging as an 273 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:27,680 unexpected beneficiary of this conflict, and the irony is 274 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:29,760 sharp. Russia, which is loudly 275 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:33,560 condemned Operation Epic Fury, stands to gain enormously from 276 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:36,960 high oil prices and from the drain this conflict places on 277 00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:40,680 American munition stockpiles. Multiple analysts have noted 278 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:44,640 this week that every Tomahawk missile fired at Iran is 1 fewer 279 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:46,600 available for potential use in Europe. 280 00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:51,480 Every B2 sortie over Tehran is 1 fewer available for other 281 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:54,240 contingencies. The Wall Street Journal reported 282 00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:57,000 on Thursday that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already 283 00:15:57,000 --> 00:16:00,440 significantly depleted Western weapons stockpiles and that 284 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:03,880 Operation Epic Fury is adding to that depletion at a pace that is 285 00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:06,480 causing genuine concern among NATO planners. 286 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:10,200 The war that Trump launched to make America stronger may, in 287 00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:13,640 this one specific dimension, be making NATO's deterrence of 288 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:17,600 Russia marginally weaker. China sent a special envoy to 289 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:21,040 the Middle East on Thursday to begin mediation efforts. 290 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:24,360 Beijing's Foreign Minister Wang He announced the deployment of 291 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:27,440 the envoy, saying China was deeply concerned about the 292 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:30,640 humanitarian situation and the threat to global energy 293 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:33,160 security. China's interest in resolving 294 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:35,440 this conflict is direct and urgent. 295 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:39,680 Roughly 1/3 of China's oil imports transit the Strait of 296 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:42,040 Hormuz. Every day the Strait remains 297 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:45,640 effectively closed is a day that Chinese industrial production, 298 00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:49,120 Chinese energy security, and the Chinese economy are under 299 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:51,360 pressure. The country most loudly 300 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:55,160 condemning this war has the most immediate economic incentive to 301 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:57,760 end it. China's diplomatic entry into 302 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:01,800 the mediation process, alongside Oman's existing efforts, creates 303 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:04,480 the possibility of a more multilateral diplomatic 304 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,640 framework for any eventual ceasefire negotiation. 305 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:12,000 Lebanon's humanitarian situation deteriorated sharply on 306 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:14,480 Thursday. The Lebanese government reported 307 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:19,720 83,847 displaced persons registered in reception centers. 308 00:17:20,079 --> 00:17:23,440 Lebanon's Prime Minister Nawaf Salaam ordered the prevention of 309 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:27,359 IRGC activity in Lebanon, saying anyone with ties to the 310 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:30,560 Revolutionary Guards should be arrested and returned to Iran. 311 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:34,000 Lebanon reinstated visa requirements for Iranian 312 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:37,720 citizens entering the country. The Lebanese army located and 313 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:40,880 seized rocket launchers in villages in southern Lebanon in 314 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:44,480 an effort to prevent further fire into northern Israel and 315 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:46,880 Navy. Berry, the speaker of Lebanon's 316 00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:50,160 parliament and a long standing Hezbollah ally, described the 317 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:53,200 Israeli threat to evacuate a population from South of the 318 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:56,280 Lidani River as a catastrophe and warned of severe 319 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:58,680 humanitarian and security consequences. 320 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:02,040 The scale of regional displacement is now staggering. 321 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:07,120 In Lebanon alone, nearly 84,000 registered displaced people. 322 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:11,200 In Iran, millions of people in cities under bombardment with no 323 00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:15,160 reliable Internet or mobile communications. 10s of thousands 324 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:18,720 of foreign nationals stranded across Gulf states unable to fly 325 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:23,200 home. 20,000 seafarers and 15,000 cruise ship passengers 326 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:26,680 stranded in the Persian Gulf. Afghan refugees at a United 327 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:29,880 States military camp outside Doha, watching missile 328 00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:32,800 interceptions in the sky directly above their heads, with 329 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:36,160 no hardened shelter. The human scale of this conflict 330 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,200 extends far beyond the bombs and the missiles and the death 331 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:41,720 tolls. It encompasses 10s of millions 332 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,680 of ordinary people whose lives have been shattered by a war 333 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:47,840 that began with an 8 minute video on Truth Social one week 334 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:50,440 ago. Seven days ago, the world was 335 00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:52,600 watching nuclear talks in Geneva. 336 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:56,080 Oman's foreign minister was declaring that peace was within 337 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,720 reach. Today, the Iranian Air Force is 338 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,080 gone. The Iranian Navy is at the 339 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:06,520 bottom of the Persian Gulf. The supreme leader is dead. 1045 340 00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:10,600 Iranians are confirmed dead. 6 American service members are 341 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:13,120 dead. The Assembly of Experts is 342 00:19:13,120 --> 00:19:16,040 meeting under bombardment to choose a supreme leader that 343 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:19,600 Trump says is unacceptable. Iran is threatening to strike 344 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:23,080 Damona, a cleric is calling for Trump's blood. 345 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:27,600 Kurdish forces are massing at Iran's northern border and NATO 346 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:31,000 members air defenses have fired on Iranian missiles. 347 00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:35,040 China has sent a mediator. And the cost of this war is 348 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:38,280 climbing by $1 billion every single day. 349 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:42,760 Iran's missiles have dropped 90%, but Iran has not 350 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:45,400 surrendered. Its foreign minister says Iran 351 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:49,080 did not ask for a ceasefire last time, and it is not asking for 352 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,800 one now. Its intelligence operatives are 353 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,000 reaching out to the CIA in secret. 354 00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:58,040 Its religious leaders are giving incendiary sermons in public. 355 00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,320 And somewhere in Iran, in a building that may or may not 356 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:04,360 have been bombed today, ADA clerics are trying to choose a 357 00:20:04,360 --> 00:20:07,720 new supreme leader for a country that is simultaneously being 358 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:10,800 bombed into rubble and fighting back with everything it is left. 359 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:16,040 That is episode 7 of Epic Fury, the US Iran war podcast. 360 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:20,600 The story is moving fast. Subscribe on Spotify, Apple 361 00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:24,440 Podcast or YouTube so every new episode lands directly with you. 362 00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:27,840 Share this with someone who needs to understand what is 363 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:30,960 happening and we will be back very soon.