Rubio said Iran's revised proposal looks better than what
we thought they were going to submit.
He said it on Fox News Monday night after Trump and his
national security team review the proposal during their
Situation Room meeting. He also said the nuclear
question is the reason why we are in this in the first place
and that any agreement must definitively prevent Iran from
sprinting toward a nuclear weapon at any point. the US
showed little immediate enthusiasm for a proposal that
would end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while
deferring nuclear negotiations to a later phase.
The Gulf Cooperation Council held an emergency session in
Jeddah on Tuesday to discuss the Iranian offer.
Gas prices hit a new war high of $4.18 per gallon.
Oil rose to a three-week high above $111.00 per barrel.
Iran's oil storage is running out.
Intelligence firm PLUR estimated Iran has enough remaining
capacity for approximately 12 to 22 days of production.
And eight ships transited the Strait of Hormuz overnight
Monday into Tuesday, the 1st meaningful commercial movement
through the waterway in days. It is Wednesday, May 20th, 2026,
day 82 of Operation Epic Fury. The strike plan for Tuesday was
called off at the Gulf leaders request.
Iran's revised proposal was reviewed by Trump's national
security team in the Situation Room on Tuesday.
Rubio said it is better than expected, a qualified upgrade
from the garbage rejection that triggered the scheduled Tuesday
strike. The US also made clear that
better is not the same as acceptable, not while the
nuclear question in Rubio's formulation remains the reason
the US entered this conflict. Oil is at a three-week high
above $111.00 per barrel. Iran's oil storage is
approaching capacity. The Straight saw its first
trickle of commercial movement in 82 days. 8 ships, possibly
including the first loaded LNG tanker since February 28th.
And the gap between better and acceptable is the specific
distance this war must cross to become something other than what
it is. This is episode 82 of Epic Fury,
the US Iran War podcast. Follow on Spotify and Apple
Podcast to stay with this story as it develops.
Let's get into it. Begin with Rubio.
Because his Fox News interview on Monday night, delivered after
the NSC meeting reviewed Iran's revised proposal is the most
specific public US assessment of that proposal available.
The combination of better than expected and but the nuclear
question is why we are here is the precise formulation of where
the US position stands after the Gulf leaders intervention bought
2 to three days. Rubio told Fox News on Monday
night that Iran's revised proposal was better than what we
thought they were going to submit a qualified and carefully
worded acknowledgement, deliberate in its calibration
and specific in its limitations. It is not we accept it.
It is not we reject it. It is, we looked at it and it
has moved somewhere. That somewhere is different from
where the last proposal was. For context, the previous
Iranian proposal was the one Trump called garbage
unbelievably weak and stupid, whose rejection triggered the
nothing left warning, then SC meeting on military options, and
the scheduled Tuesday strike that 3 Gulf leaders had to
intervene to stop. Coming from the Secretary of
State of a president who called the previous proposal garbage
unbelievably weak and stupid, the word better is a meaningful
and documented upgrade in official language.
It is Rubio signaling that the revised proposal has moved in
some direction, that it is not simply a restatement of the
position that produced the garbage rejection, the nothing
left warning, and the scheduled Tuesday strike.
But Rubio then said suffice it to say that the nuclear question
is the reason why we are in this in the first place.
He said Iran are very good negotiators, a phrase that
simultaneously acknowledges Iran's diplomatic skill and
signals that the US is not going to be negotiated out of its
nuclear requirement. He said any agreement must
definitively prevent Iran from sprinting toward a nuclear
weapon at any point in the future.
And he said the pressure on Iran is extraordinary.
Those four statements better than expected.
Nuclear is why we are here. Definitively prevent nuclear
Sprint and pressure on Iran is extraordinary Are Rubio's
structured public account of the US position after reviewing
Iran's latest offer. The proposal moves in the right
direction but does not address the central reason the war
began. And no amount of diplomatic
skill on Iran's part will produce AUS signature on an
agreement that does not definitively resolve the nuclear
question. That formulation, better but not
on the nuclear question, maps precisely on to what Iran's
revised 14 point proposal appears to contain.
Iran's revised proposal would end the war and reopen the
Strait of Hormuz, but defer nuclear negotiations to a later
phase. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister
Gharib Abadi described the proposals terms publicly ending
hostilities on all fronts, the exit of U.S. forces from areas
close to Iran, the lifting of sanctions, the release of frozen
Iranian assets, and an end to the US naval blockade.
What is absent from that list, conspicuously and entirely, is
anything that addresses the nuclear program.
There is no enrichment moratorium.
There is no uranium custody arrangement.
There is no IAEA inspection commitment.
There is no nuclear Sprint prohibition.
There is no reference to the specific verbal commitment that
Trump says Iran made to hand over the uranium and is not put
in writing. Despite multiple requests and a
scheduled military strike that was only prevented by three Gulf
leaders Monday phone calls. Iran is offering war ending and
straight opening in exchange for sanctions relief and blockade
withdrawal. Nuclear talks in Iran's framing
are subsequent phase, something to be negotiated after the guns
are down and the blockade is lifted. the US is saying the
nuclear question is why we are here and cannot be deferred.
Those two positions have not converged throughout the entire
42 day ceasefire, and whether they can converge within the two
to three day window the Gulf leaders negotiated on Monday is
the specific question the 82nd day cannot yet answer.
The structural tension in the proposal exchange has been
consistent throughout the entire 42 day ceasefire.
Iran wants to end the war first, then discuss nuclear constraints
in a different context, one where U.S. troops are no longer
at Iran's perimeter and the economic blockade is lifted.
The US wants the nuclear constraint as part of the war
ending package, simultaneous, inseparable and formalized
before any sanctions relief. Every Iranian proposal since the
Islamabad talks in late April has reflected the first
approach, war ending first, nuclear discussion second in a
subsequent phase. Every US response since the
ceasefire began has reflected the second nuclear constraints,
simultaneous and inseparable from war ending.
Rubio's better, but the nuclear question is why we are here is
the clearest and most direct articulation of that structural
impasse that any senior official has placed on the public record
since the ceasefire began 42 days ago.
Rubio also addressed the hormones toll mechanism with
language more direct than anything the administration has
put on the public record about the PGSA since it was announced.
He said the US cannot normalize and cannot tolerate Iran trying
to normalize the system in which Iran decides who gets to use an
international waterway and how much they have to pay to use it.
That statement is Rubio identifying the Persian Gulf
Straight Authority and its fee collection mandate as a
specifically unacceptable development that goes beyond the
immediate ceasefire impasse. The distinction Rubio is drawing
is operationally important. The US position on the Straight
has been since the ceasefire began on April 8th, that it must
be fully and freely reopened as a condition of any settlement.
What Rubio is adding on Tuesday night is a more specific
formulation. Not only must the straight be
reopened, but the PGS as fee collection system cannot be the
architecture through which that reopening occurs.
A straight that is technically open but commercially managed by
a new Iranian state authority, the PGSA, under which vessels
pay Iran for the right of passage, is not the straight the
US went to war to restore. It is a fundamentally different
geopolitical outcome than the pre February 28th status quo,
one that locks an Iranian sovereignty over transit in
perpetuity. Rubio's framing of the PGSA is
something the US cannot normalize or tolerate.
Is a public commitment made on Fox News on the record that any
deal must address the toll mechanism directly. the US will
not simply obtain an end to the shooting while leaving the
PGSA's fee collection architecture intact and
operational. Any deal must ensure the
Straight reverts to its pre war governance status free from
Iranian commercial authority over transit decisions.
Whether Iran's revised 14 point proposal addresses that specific
requirement, given that Iran's foreign ministry has
simultaneously been working with Oman to Co develop the transit
mechanism under the new PGSA structure, with expert
delegations already having met in Muscat, is one of the
specific and documented gaps between what the proposal
contains and what the US has explicitly said it will accept.
The Gulf Cooperation Council's emergency session in Jeddah on
Tuesday is the institutional follow through from the three
Gulf leaders Monday phone calls to Trump, Saudi Arabia, the UAE,
Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman, all six GCC members convening
the day after their Heads of Government persuaded Trump to
hold off the Tuesday attack. Is the Gulf states moving from
individual diplomatic intervention to collective
institutional positioning on what a deal needs to contain?
2 Gulf officials confirmed to NBC News that Iran's revised 14
point proposal was among the primary topics discussed at the
Jetta session. The GCC session adds collective
institutional weight to the individual Monday interventions,
confirming that the Gulf position give the revised
proposal a short window and hold off.
The attack has brought regional backing across all six GCC
members for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and
Oman to convene together in Jeddah the day after their three
most powerful Heads of Government persuaded Trump to
hold off the Tuesday attack. As those countries saying,
collectively we stand behind what MB, SMBZ and the Emir of
Qatar told Trump on Monday. We believe Iran's revised
proposal deserves the two to three days we asked for and we
have reviewed it at the institutional level ourselves.
The NSC meeting on Tuesday, held in the Situation Room, was the
institutional mechanism through which Iran's revised proposal
was formally assessed. Vice President JD Vance, Rubio,
CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Special envoy Steve Witkoff
participated, according to an administration official.
Caroline Levitt confirmed the meeting at a press briefing.
The meeting reviewed Iran's proposal, updated Trump on the
military options, and produced the Rubio Fox News assessment
Better than expected, but not on the nuclear question as its
principal public output. What the NSC meeting did not
produce is as significant as what it did.
No announcement of a deal. No announcement of a new US
counter proposal. No public statement that the
deadline has been extended further.
The meeting reviewed Iran's proposal, updated Trump on the
current state of military options, and produced Rubio's
Fox News assessment as its principal public output.
What the NSC meeting did not produce is as significant as
what it did. No announcement of a deal.
No new US counter proposal submitted to Pakistan.
No statement that the Gulf leaders window has been
extended. The 82nd day ends with a
decision still pending with Iran's oil storage clock ticking
toward the 12 to 22 day horizon. Blur describes.
With A2 to three day Gulf leaders window counting down and
with the military on hair trigger readiness at a moment's
notice, the economic data arriving on day 82 is
compounding pressure from both directions simultaneously.
US gas prices hit a new war high of $4.18 per gallon on Tuesday,
up from 4:11 the day before and from 298 on February 28th.
Everyone cent increase in the daily petrol average adds 10s of
millions of dollars in daily cost to US consumers and the
broader economy. Oil reached a three-week high
above $111.00 per barrel on Tuesday, its highest level since
the period immediately following Trump's garbage rejection of
Iran's previous proposal in early May.
The combination of a somewhat better Iranian proposal and an
NSC meeting that produced no immediate deal has given markets
a probability weighted reading. Oil above 111 says markets
believe the attack is postponed rather than cancelled, and that
the next two to three days carry a material probability of either
a deal or a strike. The plural intelligence estimate
Iran has enough remaining oil storage capacity for
approximately 12 to 22 days worth of continued production at
current levels is one of the most consequential single data
points of the 82 day conflict. PLUR is an independent commodity
intelligence platform used extensively by the global oil
trading and insurance industry. It's estimates are based on
satellite surveillance of storage facilities, tanker
tracking and production flow data.
It's estimate is not a political projection or a diplomatic
calculation. It is a physical inventory
measurement of remaining available space in Iran's
onshore and offshore oil storage infrastructure.
What it means in practice is this.
Iran is running out of places to put its oil. the US blockade has
been preventing Iranian oil tankers from offloading at
Iranian ports and from exiting the Gulf to reach Chinese and
other buyers. The Hormuz closure
simultaneously has been preventing the broader
commercial shipping that would allow Iran to move its exports.
The combined effect is that Iran's oil production, which has
not stopped, is filling Iran's onshore and offshore storage at
a rate that PLUR estimates will reach capacity within 12 to 22
days from the date of the report.
When that capacity is reached, Iran faces a choice that no
government wants to make under these conditions.
Cut production, which means shutting down its primary
revenue source and implicitly acknowledging the blockades full
effectiveness. Or find a way to move the oil,
which means either breaking the blockade, doing a deal that
lifts it, or finding alternative routes that currently do not
exist at the necessary scale. 12 to 22 days is not a long time.
It is the specific window within which Iran faces an internally
generated production crisis caused not by the bombing
campaign, which obliterated the nuclear facilities but left
Iran's oil industry largely intact, but by the economic
architecture of the blockade and the straight closure working
together. The bombing obliterated the
nuclear facilities in February. The blockade is now approaching
the moment where it obliterates Iran's ability to continue
producing oil without filling every available storage tank to
capacity. That timeline may be the single
most significant structural factor in the negotiations that
the public record has produced. It is more consequential than
Trump's public warnings, which Iran has navigated and extended
before, because it is a physical reality, one that no statement
from the president, no common a audio communication, no IRGC
military exercise, and no diplomatic posturing can extend
or delay. The 8 ships that transited the
Strait of Hormuz overnight Monday into Tuesday represent
something worth watching carefully.
The Strait has been, for all practical purposes, closed to
commercial traffic since February 28th, almost 12 weeks.
What allowed eight ships to move through it overnight is not
fully explained in the available public reporting.
It may reflect the PGSA Selective Transit Approval
mechanism, ships that apply for and pay the Iranian fee being
allowed through. It may reflect the temporary
operational window that opened without formal authorization
from either side. It may reflect the beginning of
a quiet informal movement of commercial vessels testing the
straights passability during the specific two to three day window
the Gulf leaders negotiated Monday.
Whatever the cause, 8 ships transiting overnight represents
a small but visible crack in the near complete standstill that
has characterized the straights since Operation Epic Fury began
on February 28th. Among the transiting vessels
were 4 tankers and two cargo ships, per Marine Traffic Vessel
tracking data. A Japanese owned crude oil
tanker, the Itamitsumaru, moved through the Strait.
A Chinese owned cargo ship, the New Pioneer, which had sailed
from Argentina and whose transmitting destination
indicated food or grain cargo bound for Iran, also transited.
Most significantly, an LNG tanker named the Mubaras
reappeared off the coast of southern India, having last been
seen transmitting in the Persian Gulf approximately a month
earlier. If the Mubarak completed a
straight crossing, it would be the first loaded liquefied
natural gas tanker to transit the Strait of Hormuz since the
war began on February 28th. A historically significant data
point for a waterway through which roughly 1/3 of the world's
LNG normally flows. 8 ships is not a functioning straight, but
it is 8 more than 0, and it is the first meaningful voluntary
commercial movement in a waterway that has been
essentially closed for 82 consecutive days.
Day 82 Iran's revised 14 point proposal is better than expected
Rubio's exact formulation. But the nuclear question is the
reason the US went to war on February 28th, and better is not
the same as acceptable. The NSC reviewed the proposal in
the Situation Room on Tuesday with Vance, Rubio, Ratcliffe and
Witkoff present. It produced no deal and no new
US counteroffer to Pakistan. Gas at a new war high of $4.18.
Oil above $111.00 per barrel. Iran's oil storage running out
in 12 to 22 days. Perk plurs physical inventory
data. GCC emergency session in Jetta.
8 ships transited the straight overnight, including what may be
the first loaded LNG tanker to transit since February 28th.
The PGSA is, in Rubio's own words, something the US cannot
normalize or tolerate. The gap between better and
acceptable is where this war currently lives, and the oil
storage clock is counting down in the background of every
conversation taking place across the Pakistan Mediation Channel
today and every day forward. If this podcast is helping you
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This has been episode 82 of Epic Fury, the US Iran war podcast.
We will be back very soon.