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Iran is ready to negotiate. 
Donald Trump says the terms are 

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not good enough yet. 
That is the headline from Day 16

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of Operation Epic Fury. 2 weeks 
into a war that has killed more 

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than 2000 people, closed the 
world's most important oil 

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shipping lane, sent crude above 
$100 a barrel and cost the 

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United States more than $16 
billion. 

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Iran is signaling willingness to
talk. 

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Trump is saying no. 
He gave a 30 minute telephone 

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interview to NBC News on 
Saturday and said it clearly. 

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Iran has expressed interest in a
ceasefire deal. 

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He is not ready to make one. 
The terms are not good enough 

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yet. 
He also told NBC News that the 

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United States may hit Carg 
Island a few more times just for

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fun. 
That is where this war is on Day

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16. 
The party that started it is not

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interested in ending it on any 
terms currently on offer. 

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The party on the receiving end 
is taking catastrophic military 

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losses and simultaneously 
signaling to the world that the 

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US cannot even secure a shipping
lane without begging China for 

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help. 
This is epic fury. the US Iran 

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War podcast daily coverage of 
the conflict reshaping the 

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world. 
The NBC interview was the most 

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revealing statement Trump has 
made since the war began. 

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He confirmed that Iran has, 
through intermediaries, 

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expressed interest in a 
ceasefire. 

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He confirmed he is aware of it. 
He rejected it. 

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He said the terms are not good 
enough, without specifying what 

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terms would be acceptable. 
He was asked directly what did 

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Iran need to do to end this war.
He did not answer. 

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He also questioned whether 
Iran's new Supreme Leader 

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Mujtaba Khamenei is even alive. 
He said the US may hit Karg 

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Island a few more times just for
fun. 

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He said the Gulf allies, the 
UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia have 

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been terrific and that he was 
very surprised Iran decided to 

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attack them. 
He expressed that surprise at a 

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strike campaign Iran telegraphed
clearly before the war began. 

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He described his own operation 
to the NBC interviewer in 

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characteristic terms. 
For them, it is a war. 

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For us, it has turned out to be 
easier than we thought. 

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Meanwhile, on Truth Social, 
Trump posted what may be the 

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most significant strategic 
signal of the entire conflict. 

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He wrote that many countries, 
especially those affected by 

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Iran's attempted closure of the 
Strait of Hormuz, will be 

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sending warships in conjunction 
with the United States to keep 

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the Strait open and safe. 
He called out China, France, 

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Japan, South Korea and the 
United Kingdom by name. 

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He said the United States will 
be bombing the hell out of the 

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shoreline and continually 
shooting Iranian boats and ships

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out of the water. 
He said one way or another, the 

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Strait of Hormuz will be open, 
safe and free. 

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What that post reveals is 
significant. 

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The United States is not yet 
able to reopen the Strait 

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unilaterally after 16 days of 
what the Pentagon described as 

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the most powerful air campaign 
in modern history. 

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After striking more than 15,000 
targets inside Iran after 

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sinking most of Iran's Navy, the
US is asking China for help 

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keeping a shipping lane open. 
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas 

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Arachi immediately posted a 
response on social media. 

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He wrote that the touted US 
security umbrella had proven to 

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be full of holes and inviting 
rather than deterring trouble. 

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He said the US was now begging 
others, even China, to help it 

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make Hormuz safe. 
He called on Iran's neighbors to

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expel foreign aggressors. 
The Irgc's naval commander 

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responded separately to Trump's 
worship coalition call. 

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He said the Strait of Hormuz has
not yet been militarily closed 

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and is merely under control. 
He noted that Americans falsely 

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claimed the destruction of 
Iran's Navy, then falsely 

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claimed the escorting of oil 
tankers. 

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And we're now asking others for 
backup forces. 

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He is not wrong on all counts. 
Trump's energy secretary said 

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last week the Navy would not be 
ready to escort tankers until 

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the end of March. 
Trump himself said on Saturday 

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that escort capacity is 
possible, but declined to 

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confirm it was happening. 
His Treasury Secretary said 

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escorts would begin as soon as 
militarily possible. 

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None of those 3 answers means 
the Strait is open. 

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The Pentagon confirmed Saturday 
that the six US service members 

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who died when the KC135 
Stratotanker crashed in western 

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Iraq on Thursday have now been 
formally identified. 

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They were Major John Cliner, age
33, of Alabama, Captain Ariana 

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Savino, age 31, of Washington 
state, Technical Sergeant Ashley

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00:04:57,080 --> 00:05:02,840
Pruitt, age 34, of Kentucky, 
Captain Seth Koval, age 38, of 

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00:05:02,840 --> 00:05:08,120
Indiana, Captain Curtis Angst, 
age 30 of Ohio, and Technical 

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00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:11,520
Sergeant Tyler Simmons, age 28, 
of Ohio. 

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Three were assigned to the 606th
Air Refueling Wing at Mcdill Air

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Force Base in Florida. 
Three were from the 121st Air 

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Refueling Wing at Rickenbacker 
Air National Guard Base in 

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Columbus, OH. 6 names, six 
families, six people who flew A 

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refueling aircraft in western 
Iraq on a Thursday night and did

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not come home. 
The total confirmed American 

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military deaths in Operation 
Epic Fury now stands at 19-6 

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killed by enemy fire in the 
opening days of the conflict. 6 

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killed in the case of 135 crash 
3 in the Kuwait friendly fire 

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incident on day one. 
For more in the ongoing 

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operations, the Pentagon 
continues to update the figure. 

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The Strait of Hormuz remains the
defining strategic question of 

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this conflict and Saturday 
brought important new 

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00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:05,720
information about what it is and
is not. 

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Iran's Foreign Minister Arachi 
clarified Iran's position 

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publicly. 
He said the Strait is only 

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closed to American Israeli ships
and tankers and not to others. 

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That clarification has 
significant implications. 

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Vessels from non aligned 
countries, India, China, Turkey 

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have been transiting or 
attempting to transit throughout

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the conflict. 
Iranian shipping has 

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specifically allowed or turned a
blind eye to some of those 

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passages. 2 Indian flag tankers 
carrying liquefied petroleum gas

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crossed the Strait safely on 
Saturday morning, Indian 

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government officials confirmed 
both vessels transited without 

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incident. 
China has been successfully 

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transiting the Strait, 
broadcasting Chinese ownership 

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on their vessels automatic 
identification systems. 

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Turkey approved a passage after 
direct Iranian authorization. 

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What Iran is doing is not a 
total closure in the military 

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sense. 
It is a selective blockade 

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targeting American and Israeli 
economic interests while 

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maintaining the threat of 
violence of leverage. 

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The financial and insurance 
markets do not distinguish 

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between selective and total 
closure. 

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The risk of any transit is now 
too high for most commercial 

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operators, regardless of flag. 
The effect on global oil supply 

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is nearly the same as a complete
closure. 

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The USS Nimitz, one of the 
largest warships in the world, 

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has had its service life 
extended to March 2027. 

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It was due to be decommissioned 
in May 2026. 

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The extension comes directly as 
a result of the Iran war. 

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The Navy is keeping every asset 
in service as it deploys to the 

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region. 
The USS Tripoli, with its 2200 

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Marines, is still a week away. 
The USS Abraham Lincoln and USS 

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Gerald R Ford carrier strike 
groups are in theater. 

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The USS George HW Bush was 
dispatched earlier in the 

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conflict. the United States now 
has three carrier strike groups 

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in the wider region. 
Simultaneously, Formula One 

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canceled its Bahrain and Saudi 
Arabian Grand Prix races 

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scheduled for April. 
The announcement came from 

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Shanghai ahead of the Chinese 
Grand Prix on Sunday. 

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The governing body cited safety 
concerns related to the ongoing 

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war. 
The Bahrain race was due on 

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April the 12th. 
The Saudi race in Jeddah the 

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following weekend both canceled.
No substitute venues will be 

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found for April. 
This is what the third week of 

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the war looks like in the 
commercial world. 

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The Formula One calendar, an 
event attended by global elites 

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and broadcast to hundreds of 
millions of people, has been 

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disrupted by a war in Iran. 
Airlines have raised fares to 

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cover rising fuel costs. 
India's Air India and Indigo 

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announced significant ticket 
price increases. 

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Greek Prime Minister Kiriakos 
Mitsotakis capped profit margins

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at petrol stations and 
supermarkets to prevent 

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profiteering from the oil shock.
Global markets remain volatile. 

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00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:09,280
The UN secretary general Antonio
Guterres traveled to Beirut on 

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Saturday. 
Standing in the Lebanese 

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capital, he issued a direct 
plea. 

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Stop the fighting, stop the 
bombing. 

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There is no military solution. 
He called on both Israel and 

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Hezbollah to halt their 
exchanges. 

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He pledged support for Lebanese 
civilians displaced by the 

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escalating conflict in the 
country's South. 

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More than 850,000 people are 
displaced in Lebanon, 773 killed

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since fighting resumed on March 
the 2nd. 12 medical workers 

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killed in Saturday's Israeli 
strike on healthcare center, the

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Nepalese UNIFIL peacekeeping 
headquarters. 

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Shell by Israeli artillery. 
A ground incursion by Israeli 

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forces into southern Lebanon is 
being prepared, according to 

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multiple reports. 
Israel's Defense Minister Katz 

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called it a decisive phase that 
will continue for as long as 

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necessary. 
An Axios report said Israeli 

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00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:06,240
officials are planning what one 
source described as a massive 

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operation to flatten southern 
Lebanon, like Gaza, to destroy 

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Hezbollah's weapons 
infrastructure. 

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The Hormuz coalition. 
Trump called for untruth Social 

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00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:17,680
has so far produced cautious 
responses. 

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Both China and the United 
Kingdom told CNN they had 

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received Trump's message and 
were assessing it. 

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Neither committed to sending 
warships. 

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China's position is particularly
complex. 

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It is Iran's largest oil 
customer. 

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00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:36,120
It has been benefiting from 
discounted Iranian oil 

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throughout the conflict. 
Its vessels have been transiting

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the Strait by declaring Chinese 
ownership. 

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It has no strategic interest in 
helping the United States 

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project military power in the 
Persian Gulf. 

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00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:51,120
It will evaluate any 
contribution in terms of what it

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gains, not what Trump asks for. 
the United Kingdom has HMS 

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00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:59,760
Dragon, a Royal Navy Type 45 air
defense destroyer, already 

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00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:01,520
deployed to the eastern 
Mediterranean. 

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00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:04,800
British forces have been 
providing defensive support 

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00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:07,560
throughout the conflict from 
their base at Akrotiri in 

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00:11:07,560 --> 00:11:09,600
Cyprus. 
Whether Britain commits 

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00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:13,480
additional assets to a Strait of
Hormuz coalition is a decision 

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00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:16,360
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has 
not yet made publicly. 

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00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:20,480
Iran denied that it had fully 
closed the Strait in any formal 

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00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:23,880
military sense. 
The Irgc's naval commander went 

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00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:27,120
further, pushing back on what he
described as American 

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00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:29,920
misinformation. 
Tanker trackers confirmed that 

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00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:33,600
two Iranian tankers were loading
crude oil at Kargh Island on 

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00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:37,080
Saturday morning, hours after 
Trump declared every military 

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00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:39,000
target had been totally 
obliterated. 

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00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:43,600
Satellite imagery confirmed all 
55 crude oil storage tanks on 

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00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:47,320
the island appeared intact. 
The oil infrastructure was not 

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00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:52,040
struck, the military facilities 
were, and oil loading continued 

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00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:55,400
the following morning. 
Iran's Foreign Minister Arachi 

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00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:58,920
also told American media that 
Iran will attack any energy 

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00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:01,720
infrastructure in the region 
which belongs to an American 

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00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:04,880
company or in which an American 
company is a shareholder. 

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00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:08,240
That formulation includes 
hundreds of facilities across 

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00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:12,680
the Gulf, refineries, terminals,
storage facilities, pipelines 

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00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:14,640
that have American corporate 
involvement. 

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00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:18,520
It is a threat with an almost 
unlimited scope of potential 

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00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:21,480
targets. 
Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait have 

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00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:24,720
all declared force majeure on 
gas exports as they halt 

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00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:27,640
production. 
Force majeure is a formal legal 

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00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:30,440
clause allowing them to be 
excused from contractual 

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00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:33,760
delivery obligations because of 
events beyond their control. 

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00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:37,040
They have never used it 
simultaneously before. 

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00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:40,640
It reflects a situation where 
their production infrastructure 

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00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:43,960
is under sustained attack and 
they cannot guarantee delivery 

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00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:47,560
to counterparties. 
Saudi Arabia's Sheba oilfield, 

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00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:50,840
one of the kingdom's largest, 
was targeted by 5 drones 

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00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:52,960
intercepted in the Empty Quarter
desert. 

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00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:56,200
Two more were destroyed in 
eastern Saudi Arabia. 

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00:12:56,600 --> 00:13:00,000
The kingdom's eastern region 
contains the heart of Aramco's 

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00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:04,200
production infrastructure. 
It has been targeted repeatedly.

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00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:08,680
Saudi Arabia lobbied Trump to 
start this war, is absorbing 

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00:13:08,680 --> 00:13:12,200
Iranian retaliation for that 
decision without being able to 

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00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:15,400
say so publicly. 
The ceasefire question is the 

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00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:18,320
question the entire region is 
now focused on. 

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00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:22,080
Reuters reported that Middle 
East allies, the UAE, Qatar, 

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00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:25,440
Saudi Arabia among them, have 
been pushing both the US and 

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00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:29,000
Iran to begin talks. 
Three sources familiar with the 

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00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:33,040
effort confirm the pressure. 2 
Iranian sources confirmed that 

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00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:35,560
Tehran currently has no interest
in talks. 

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00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:38,920
Trump confirmed he is not ready 
to make a deal. 

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Both sides are, in the words of 
Reuters, settled in for an 

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00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:46,040
extended conflict. 
What that extended conflict 

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00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:49,720
means for the global economy is 
becoming clearer day by day. 

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Oil above $100 for sustained 
periods. 

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Petrol approaching $4.00 a 
gallon in the United States. 

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00:13:57,600 --> 00:14:00,600
Quarterly economic data that 
will show the Iran war as the 

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00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:04,720
primary driver of inflation in 
the second quarter of 2026. 

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00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:07,920
Force majeure across Gulf gas 
exports. 

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00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:12,200
Formula One cancelled. 
Airlines raising fares. 

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00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:16,960
Markets volatile in the Strait 
of Hormuz, through which 20% of 

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00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:20,480
the world's oil normally flows, 
subject to selective but 

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00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:24,280
devastating Iranian control. 
Trump called it easier than we 

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00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:26,960
thought for the United States 
military. 

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00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:30,680
Perhaps it has been for the 
global economy, The people of 

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00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:34,120
Iran, the people of Lebanon, the
sailors being struck in the 

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00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:37,160
Gulf, and the six American 
aircrew whose names were 

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00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:40,120
released on Saturday. 
It has not been easy at all. 

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00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:44,080
Day 16, the terms are not good 
enough yet. 

252
00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,840
The straight is still closed and
the bombing of the shoreline 

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00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:51,600
continues. 
The names of the KC135 crew 

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00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:53,680
deserve more than a passing 
mention. 

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00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:58,600
They are worth sitting with. 
Major John Clinner was 33 years 

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00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:02,160
old. 
He was from Auburn, AL Captain 

257
00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:06,000
Ariana Savino was 31 from 
Covington, WA. 

258
00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:10,960
Technical Sergeant Ashley Pruitt
was 34 from Bardstown, KY 

259
00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:15,160
Captain Seth Koval was 38 from 
Mooresville, IN. 

260
00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:19,040
Captain Curtis Angst was 30 from
Wilmington, OH. 

261
00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:24,400
Technical Sergeant Tyler Simmons
was 28 from Columbus, OH. 6 

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00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:27,000
people from six different 
American towns. 

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00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:30,760
They're a fueling specialists, 
the people who keep other 

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00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:33,840
aircraft in the fight by 
transferring fuel midair over 

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00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:38,600
hostile territory. 
The KC 135 Stratotanker is not a

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00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:42,200
glamorous aircraft. 
It is not fire missiles or drop 

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00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:44,600
bombs. 
It is not appear in movie 

268
00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:47,640
posters. 
It is a fuel truck with wings. 

269
00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:51,320
It's crew fly long missions over
difficult terrain to ensure that

270
00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:54,040
the fighters and bombers that do
the attacking can stay in the 

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00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:56,400
air long enough to complete 
their objectives. 

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00:15:56,800 --> 00:16:01,320
They died not from enemy fire, 
not from a missile or a drone. 

273
00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:04,800
They died from a crash in 
western Iraq over friendly 

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00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:08,320
territory and circumstances that
are still under investigation. 

275
00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:11,800
The Air Force confirmed the 
aircraft was not equipped with 

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00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:15,520
ejection systems or parachutes 
to evacuate its occupants mid 

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00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:17,920
air. 
When the plane went down, there 

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00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:22,000
was nowhere to go. 
That detail, no ejection seats, 

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00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:26,080
no parachutes reflects the 
nature of the KC 135. 

280
00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:30,240
It is a large aircraft. 
Large aircraft do not have 

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00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:33,280
ejection seats. 
The crews fly knowing that if 

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00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:36,560
something goes catastrophically 
wrong at low altitude, they 

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00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:40,240
cannot bail out. 
They trust the aircraft, they 

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00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:43,880
trust the maintenance, they 
trust the mission planning. 

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00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:47,320
On Thursday night over western 
Iraq, something went 

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00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:50,880
catastrophically wrong. 
The Pentagon said the incident 

287
00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:54,560
is under investigation. 
An Iranian aligned armed group 

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00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:57,080
in Iraq claimed it shot the 
aircraft down. 

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00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:01,360
Central Command said it was not 
due to hostile or friendly fire.

290
00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:04,839
Both things can be believed or 
disbelieved. 

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00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:08,440
The investigation will determine
which is accurate. 

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00:17:08,839 --> 00:17:11,359
In the meantime, six families 
are grieving. 

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00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:14,920
The six deaths bring the 
confirmed total of American 

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00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:18,640
military fatalities in Operation
Epic Fury to 19. 

295
00:17:19,079 --> 00:17:22,640
The administration has not held 
a dignified transfer ceremony 

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00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:27,480
for the KC135 crew yet. 
Trump flew to Dover for the 1st 

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00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:30,200
6 American deaths earlier in the
conflict. 

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00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:33,520
Whether he will do so again for 
these six has not been 

299
00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:36,440
confirmed. 
Anti war protesters gathered 

300
00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:38,360
outside the White House on 
Saturday. 

301
00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:41,400
They waved pre revolution 
Iranian flags. 

302
00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:45,000
They called for regime change 
and expressed support for Trump 

303
00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:48,120
strikes. 
The Iranian diaspora in America 

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00:17:48,120 --> 00:17:50,720
is deeply divided. 
Those who came to the United 

305
00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:54,080
States to escape the Islamic 
Republic and those who fear what

306
00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:56,920
the bombing is doing to their 
families still inside Iran. 

307
00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:00,760
Both groups were represented in 
Washington on Saturday on 

308
00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:05,320
different sides of the same set 
of barriers. 56% of Americans 

309
00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:07,840
opposed the war as of the most 
recent polling. 

310
00:18:08,360 --> 00:18:11,200
That figure has likely moved in 
the two days since the Karg 

311
00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:15,280
Island strikes and the 
identification of the KC 135 

312
00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:17,720
dead. 
New polling has not yet been 

313
00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:21,320
published as of Day 16. 
The broader international 

314
00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:25,000
picture is hardening into 
familiar blocks. the United 

315
00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:29,120
States and Israel on one side, 
Russia and China issuing 

316
00:18:29,120 --> 00:18:32,280
condemnation on the other, while
Russia profits from oil 

317
00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:35,160
sanctions relief and China 
transits the straight with its 

318
00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,440
cargo. 
The Gulf states absorbing 

319
00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:41,160
Iranian retaliation while unable
to publicly criticize the 

320
00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:44,360
American operation, they lobbied
for Europe, calling for 

321
00:18:44,360 --> 00:18:48,280
ceasefire while providing 
defensive military support, and 

322
00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:51,600
the global S watching an alarm 
as the energy shock threatens 

323
00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:55,800
their own economic stability. 
Trump's AI advisor David Sacks 

324
00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:59,440
made headlines on Saturday with 
a stark assessment of the war 

325
00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:02,160
that diverged sharply from the 
administration's official 

326
00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:04,480
messaging. 
Sachs told reporters that the 

327
00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:06,800
United States should get out of 
the war quickly. 

328
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:10,200
He warned that Iran has what he 
called a dead man switch that 

329
00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:13,640
could render Gulf states almost 
uninhabitable if the conflict 

330
00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:16,000
continues. 
He was referring to Iran's 

331
00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,800
ability to strike the densely 
concentrated energy 

332
00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:22,360
infrastructure of the Gulf 
region, refineries, desalina 

333
00:19:22,360 --> 00:19:26,320
tion plants, LNG facilities and 
a final sustained campaign 

334
00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:29,520
before its military capability 
is completely degraded. 

335
00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:33,600
Sachs said the longer the war 
goes on, the more likely Iran is

336
00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:37,200
to use that option. 
The White House did not respond 

337
00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:41,400
publicly to Sachs's remarks. 
The dead man switch concept is 

338
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:45,120
not new among Iran analysts. 
Iran's approach throughout this 

339
00:19:45,120 --> 00:19:48,080
conflict has been to use its 
remaining military assets 

340
00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:51,120
strategically rather than 
wastefully, firing its heaviest 

341
00:19:51,120 --> 00:19:54,600
payloads at the most valuable 
targets, concentrating on energy

342
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:58,640
infrastructure financial hubs in
U.S. military installations 

343
00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:01,320
rather than scattering fire 
across civilian areas. 

344
00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:05,240
The IRGC has explicitly warned 
that if Iran's oil 

345
00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:09,320
infrastructure is destroyed, the
price of oil will exceed $200 

346
00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,920
per barrel. 
Every analysis of the Gulf's 

347
00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:15,320
energy geography confirms that 
Iran has the capability to 

348
00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:18,840
'cause that level of damage, 
even in a severely degraded 

349
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:21,200
state. 
The fact that Trump's own AI 

350
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:24,440
advisor is publicly warning 
about this risk in the middle of

351
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,840
a war the administration is 
calling easy is a measure of how

352
00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:30,800
much uncertainty exists about 
the end game within the 

353
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:34,040
administration itself. 
The people making the war and 

354
00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:37,040
the people advising the 
president are not all reading 

355
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:40,840
from the same script. 
The war is 16 days old. 

356
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:44,440
It is 2 weeks and two days since
a world that had been told peace

357
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:48,320
was within reach woke up to 
bombs falling on Tehran. 2000 

358
00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:53,320
people are dead, 3,000,000 are 
displaced, the Strait of Hormuz 

359
00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:58,400
is selectively closed, oil is 
above $100, and the President of

360
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,240
the United States is saying the 
terms are not good enough yet 

361
00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:04,600
while suggesting he might hit 
the same island a few more times

362
00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:08,600
just for fun. 
Day 16 no end inside. 

363
00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:12,840
This has been epic. 
Fury. the US Iran war podcast. 

364
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,920
New episodes everyday on 
Spotify, Apple Podcast and 

365
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:17,400
YouTube.