Iran is ready to negotiate. Donald Trump says the terms are
not good enough yet. That is the headline from Day 16
of Operation Epic Fury. 2 weeks into a war that has killed more
than 2000 people, closed the world's most important oil
shipping lane, sent crude above $100 a barrel and cost the
United States more than $16 billion.
Iran is signaling willingness to talk.
Trump is saying no. He gave a 30 minute telephone
interview to NBC News on Saturday and said it clearly.
Iran has expressed interest in a ceasefire deal.
He is not ready to make one. The terms are not good enough
yet. He also told NBC News that the
United States may hit Carg Island a few more times just for
fun. That is where this war is on Day
16. The party that started it is not
interested in ending it on any terms currently on offer.
The party on the receiving end is taking catastrophic military
losses and simultaneously signaling to the world that the
US cannot even secure a shipping lane without begging China for
help. This is epic fury. the US Iran
War podcast daily coverage of the conflict reshaping the
world. The NBC interview was the most
revealing statement Trump has made since the war began.
He confirmed that Iran has, through intermediaries,
expressed interest in a ceasefire.
He confirmed he is aware of it. He rejected it.
He said the terms are not good enough, without specifying what
terms would be acceptable. He was asked directly what did
Iran need to do to end this war. He did not answer.
He also questioned whether Iran's new Supreme Leader
Mujtaba Khamenei is even alive. He said the US may hit Karg
Island a few more times just for fun.
He said the Gulf allies, the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia have
been terrific and that he was very surprised Iran decided to
attack them. He expressed that surprise at a
strike campaign Iran telegraphed clearly before the war began.
He described his own operation to the NBC interviewer in
characteristic terms. For them, it is a war.
For us, it has turned out to be easier than we thought.
Meanwhile, on Truth Social, Trump posted what may be the
most significant strategic signal of the entire conflict.
He wrote that many countries, especially those affected by
Iran's attempted closure of the Strait of Hormuz, will be
sending warships in conjunction with the United States to keep
the Strait open and safe. He called out China, France,
Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom by name.
He said the United States will be bombing the hell out of the
shoreline and continually shooting Iranian boats and ships
out of the water. He said one way or another, the
Strait of Hormuz will be open, safe and free.
What that post reveals is significant.
The United States is not yet able to reopen the Strait
unilaterally after 16 days of what the Pentagon described as
the most powerful air campaign in modern history.
After striking more than 15,000 targets inside Iran after
sinking most of Iran's Navy, the US is asking China for help
keeping a shipping lane open. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas
Arachi immediately posted a response on social media.
He wrote that the touted US security umbrella had proven to
be full of holes and inviting rather than deterring trouble.
He said the US was now begging others, even China, to help it
make Hormuz safe. He called on Iran's neighbors to
expel foreign aggressors. The Irgc's naval commander
responded separately to Trump's worship coalition call.
He said the Strait of Hormuz has not yet been militarily closed
and is merely under control. He noted that Americans falsely
claimed the destruction of Iran's Navy, then falsely
claimed the escorting of oil tankers.
And we're now asking others for backup forces.
He is not wrong on all counts. Trump's energy secretary said
last week the Navy would not be ready to escort tankers until
the end of March. Trump himself said on Saturday
that escort capacity is possible, but declined to
confirm it was happening. His Treasury Secretary said
escorts would begin as soon as militarily possible.
None of those 3 answers means the Strait is open.
The Pentagon confirmed Saturday that the six US service members
who died when the KC135 Stratotanker crashed in western
Iraq on Thursday have now been formally identified.
They were Major John Cliner, age 33, of Alabama, Captain Ariana
Savino, age 31, of Washington state, Technical Sergeant Ashley
Pruitt, age 34, of Kentucky, Captain Seth Koval, age 38, of
Indiana, Captain Curtis Angst, age 30 of Ohio, and Technical
Sergeant Tyler Simmons, age 28, of Ohio.
Three were assigned to the 606th Air Refueling Wing at Mcdill Air
Force Base in Florida. Three were from the 121st Air
Refueling Wing at Rickenbacker Air National Guard Base in
Columbus, OH. 6 names, six families, six people who flew A
refueling aircraft in western Iraq on a Thursday night and did
not come home. The total confirmed American
military deaths in Operation Epic Fury now stands at 19-6
killed by enemy fire in the opening days of the conflict. 6
killed in the case of 135 crash 3 in the Kuwait friendly fire
incident on day one. For more in the ongoing
operations, the Pentagon continues to update the figure.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the defining strategic question of
this conflict and Saturday brought important new
information about what it is and is not.
Iran's Foreign Minister Arachi clarified Iran's position
publicly. He said the Strait is only
closed to American Israeli ships and tankers and not to others.
That clarification has significant implications.
Vessels from non aligned countries, India, China, Turkey
have been transiting or attempting to transit throughout
the conflict. Iranian shipping has
specifically allowed or turned a blind eye to some of those
passages. 2 Indian flag tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas
crossed the Strait safely on Saturday morning, Indian
government officials confirmed both vessels transited without
incident. China has been successfully
transiting the Strait, broadcasting Chinese ownership
on their vessels automatic identification systems.
Turkey approved a passage after direct Iranian authorization.
What Iran is doing is not a total closure in the military
sense. It is a selective blockade
targeting American and Israeli economic interests while
maintaining the threat of violence of leverage.
The financial and insurance markets do not distinguish
between selective and total closure.
The risk of any transit is now too high for most commercial
operators, regardless of flag. The effect on global oil supply
is nearly the same as a complete closure.
The USS Nimitz, one of the largest warships in the world,
has had its service life extended to March 2027.
It was due to be decommissioned in May 2026.
The extension comes directly as a result of the Iran war.
The Navy is keeping every asset in service as it deploys to the
region. The USS Tripoli, with its 2200
Marines, is still a week away. The USS Abraham Lincoln and USS
Gerald R Ford carrier strike groups are in theater.
The USS George HW Bush was dispatched earlier in the
conflict. the United States now has three carrier strike groups
in the wider region. Simultaneously, Formula One
canceled its Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grand Prix races
scheduled for April. The announcement came from
Shanghai ahead of the Chinese Grand Prix on Sunday.
The governing body cited safety concerns related to the ongoing
war. The Bahrain race was due on
April the 12th. The Saudi race in Jeddah the
following weekend both canceled. No substitute venues will be
found for April. This is what the third week of
the war looks like in the commercial world.
The Formula One calendar, an event attended by global elites
and broadcast to hundreds of millions of people, has been
disrupted by a war in Iran. Airlines have raised fares to
cover rising fuel costs. India's Air India and Indigo
announced significant ticket price increases.
Greek Prime Minister Kiriakos Mitsotakis capped profit margins
at petrol stations and supermarkets to prevent
profiteering from the oil shock. Global markets remain volatile.
The UN secretary general Antonio Guterres traveled to Beirut on
Saturday. Standing in the Lebanese
capital, he issued a direct plea.
Stop the fighting, stop the bombing.
There is no military solution. He called on both Israel and
Hezbollah to halt their exchanges.
He pledged support for Lebanese civilians displaced by the
escalating conflict in the country's South.
More than 850,000 people are displaced in Lebanon, 773 killed
since fighting resumed on March the 2nd. 12 medical workers
killed in Saturday's Israeli strike on healthcare center, the
Nepalese UNIFIL peacekeeping headquarters.
Shell by Israeli artillery. A ground incursion by Israeli
forces into southern Lebanon is being prepared, according to
multiple reports. Israel's Defense Minister Katz
called it a decisive phase that will continue for as long as
necessary. An Axios report said Israeli
officials are planning what one source described as a massive
operation to flatten southern Lebanon, like Gaza, to destroy
Hezbollah's weapons infrastructure.
The Hormuz coalition. Trump called for untruth Social
has so far produced cautious responses.
Both China and the United Kingdom told CNN they had
received Trump's message and were assessing it.
Neither committed to sending warships.
China's position is particularly complex.
It is Iran's largest oil customer.
It has been benefiting from discounted Iranian oil
throughout the conflict. Its vessels have been transiting
the Strait by declaring Chinese ownership.
It has no strategic interest in helping the United States
project military power in the Persian Gulf.
It will evaluate any contribution in terms of what it
gains, not what Trump asks for. the United Kingdom has HMS
Dragon, a Royal Navy Type 45 air defense destroyer, already
deployed to the eastern Mediterranean.
British forces have been providing defensive support
throughout the conflict from their base at Akrotiri in
Cyprus. Whether Britain commits
additional assets to a Strait of Hormuz coalition is a decision
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has not yet made publicly.
Iran denied that it had fully closed the Strait in any formal
military sense. The Irgc's naval commander went
further, pushing back on what he described as American
misinformation. Tanker trackers confirmed that
two Iranian tankers were loading crude oil at Kargh Island on
Saturday morning, hours after Trump declared every military
target had been totally obliterated.
Satellite imagery confirmed all 55 crude oil storage tanks on
the island appeared intact. The oil infrastructure was not
struck, the military facilities were, and oil loading continued
the following morning. Iran's Foreign Minister Arachi
also told American media that Iran will attack any energy
infrastructure in the region which belongs to an American
company or in which an American company is a shareholder.
That formulation includes hundreds of facilities across
the Gulf, refineries, terminals, storage facilities, pipelines
that have American corporate involvement.
It is a threat with an almost unlimited scope of potential
targets. Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait have
all declared force majeure on gas exports as they halt
production. Force majeure is a formal legal
clause allowing them to be excused from contractual
delivery obligations because of events beyond their control.
They have never used it simultaneously before.
It reflects a situation where their production infrastructure
is under sustained attack and they cannot guarantee delivery
to counterparties. Saudi Arabia's Sheba oilfield,
one of the kingdom's largest, was targeted by 5 drones
intercepted in the Empty Quarter desert.
Two more were destroyed in eastern Saudi Arabia.
The kingdom's eastern region contains the heart of Aramco's
production infrastructure. It has been targeted repeatedly.
Saudi Arabia lobbied Trump to start this war, is absorbing
Iranian retaliation for that decision without being able to
say so publicly. The ceasefire question is the
question the entire region is now focused on.
Reuters reported that Middle East allies, the UAE, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia among them, have been pushing both the US and
Iran to begin talks. Three sources familiar with the
effort confirm the pressure. 2 Iranian sources confirmed that
Tehran currently has no interest in talks.
Trump confirmed he is not ready to make a deal.
Both sides are, in the words of Reuters, settled in for an
extended conflict. What that extended conflict
means for the global economy is becoming clearer day by day.
Oil above $100 for sustained periods.
Petrol approaching $4.00 a gallon in the United States.
Quarterly economic data that will show the Iran war as the
primary driver of inflation in the second quarter of 2026.
Force majeure across Gulf gas exports.
Formula One cancelled. Airlines raising fares.
Markets volatile in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of
the world's oil normally flows, subject to selective but
devastating Iranian control. Trump called it easier than we
thought for the United States military.
Perhaps it has been for the global economy, The people of
Iran, the people of Lebanon, the sailors being struck in the
Gulf, and the six American aircrew whose names were
released on Saturday. It has not been easy at all.
Day 16, the terms are not good enough yet.
The straight is still closed and the bombing of the shoreline
continues. The names of the KC135 crew
deserve more than a passing mention.
They are worth sitting with. Major John Clinner was 33 years
old. He was from Auburn, AL Captain
Ariana Savino was 31 from Covington, WA.
Technical Sergeant Ashley Pruitt was 34 from Bardstown, KY
Captain Seth Koval was 38 from Mooresville, IN.
Captain Curtis Angst was 30 from Wilmington, OH.
Technical Sergeant Tyler Simmons was 28 from Columbus, OH. 6
people from six different American towns.
They're a fueling specialists, the people who keep other
aircraft in the fight by transferring fuel midair over
hostile territory. The KC 135 Stratotanker is not a
glamorous aircraft. It is not fire missiles or drop
bombs. It is not appear in movie
posters. It is a fuel truck with wings.
It's crew fly long missions over difficult terrain to ensure that
the fighters and bombers that do the attacking can stay in the
air long enough to complete their objectives.
They died not from enemy fire, not from a missile or a drone.
They died from a crash in western Iraq over friendly
territory and circumstances that are still under investigation.
The Air Force confirmed the aircraft was not equipped with
ejection systems or parachutes to evacuate its occupants mid
air. When the plane went down, there
was nowhere to go. That detail, no ejection seats,
no parachutes reflects the nature of the KC 135.
It is a large aircraft. Large aircraft do not have
ejection seats. The crews fly knowing that if
something goes catastrophically wrong at low altitude, they
cannot bail out. They trust the aircraft, they
trust the maintenance, they trust the mission planning.
On Thursday night over western Iraq, something went
catastrophically wrong. The Pentagon said the incident
is under investigation. An Iranian aligned armed group
in Iraq claimed it shot the aircraft down.
Central Command said it was not due to hostile or friendly fire.
Both things can be believed or disbelieved.
The investigation will determine which is accurate.
In the meantime, six families are grieving.
The six deaths bring the confirmed total of American
military fatalities in Operation Epic Fury to 19.
The administration has not held a dignified transfer ceremony
for the KC135 crew yet. Trump flew to Dover for the 1st
6 American deaths earlier in the conflict.
Whether he will do so again for these six has not been
confirmed. Anti war protesters gathered
outside the White House on Saturday.
They waved pre revolution Iranian flags.
They called for regime change and expressed support for Trump
strikes. The Iranian diaspora in America
is deeply divided. Those who came to the United
States to escape the Islamic Republic and those who fear what
the bombing is doing to their families still inside Iran.
Both groups were represented in Washington on Saturday on
different sides of the same set of barriers. 56% of Americans
opposed the war as of the most recent polling.
That figure has likely moved in the two days since the Karg
Island strikes and the identification of the KC 135
dead. New polling has not yet been
published as of Day 16. The broader international
picture is hardening into familiar blocks. the United
States and Israel on one side, Russia and China issuing
condemnation on the other, while Russia profits from oil
sanctions relief and China transits the straight with its
cargo. The Gulf states absorbing
Iranian retaliation while unable to publicly criticize the
American operation, they lobbied for Europe, calling for
ceasefire while providing defensive military support, and
the global S watching an alarm as the energy shock threatens
their own economic stability. Trump's AI advisor David Sacks
made headlines on Saturday with a stark assessment of the war
that diverged sharply from the administration's official
messaging. Sachs told reporters that the
United States should get out of the war quickly.
He warned that Iran has what he called a dead man switch that
could render Gulf states almost uninhabitable if the conflict
continues. He was referring to Iran's
ability to strike the densely concentrated energy
infrastructure of the Gulf region, refineries, desalina
tion plants, LNG facilities and a final sustained campaign
before its military capability is completely degraded.
Sachs said the longer the war goes on, the more likely Iran is
to use that option. The White House did not respond
publicly to Sachs's remarks. The dead man switch concept is
not new among Iran analysts. Iran's approach throughout this
conflict has been to use its remaining military assets
strategically rather than wastefully, firing its heaviest
payloads at the most valuable targets, concentrating on energy
infrastructure financial hubs in U.S. military installations
rather than scattering fire across civilian areas.
The IRGC has explicitly warned that if Iran's oil
infrastructure is destroyed, the price of oil will exceed $200
per barrel. Every analysis of the Gulf's
energy geography confirms that Iran has the capability to
'cause that level of damage, even in a severely degraded
state. The fact that Trump's own AI
advisor is publicly warning about this risk in the middle of
a war the administration is calling easy is a measure of how
much uncertainty exists about the end game within the
administration itself. The people making the war and
the people advising the president are not all reading
from the same script. The war is 16 days old.
It is 2 weeks and two days since a world that had been told peace
was within reach woke up to bombs falling on Tehran. 2000
people are dead, 3,000,000 are displaced, the Strait of Hormuz
is selectively closed, oil is above $100, and the President of
the United States is saying the terms are not good enough yet
while suggesting he might hit the same island a few more times
just for fun. Day 16 no end inside.
This has been epic. Fury. the US Iran war podcast.
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