1
00:00:16,790 --> 00:00:19,270
The ceasefire is holding 
tenuously. 

2
00:00:19,750 --> 00:00:22,510
A French shipping Giants vessel 
was attacked while transiting 

3
00:00:22,510 --> 00:00:25,870
the Strait of Hormuz, injuring 
crew members and damaging the 

4
00:00:25,870 --> 00:00:28,590
ship. 
The UAE engaged 2 Iranian 

5
00:00:28,590 --> 00:00:31,270
ballistic missiles and three 
drones on Friday. 

6
00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:35,480
Bahrain arrested 41 people 
alleged to have links to Iran's 

7
00:00:35,480 --> 00:00:39,160
Revolutionary Guard Corps. 
Iran's foreign ministry said on 

8
00:00:39,160 --> 00:00:42,080
Friday is not paying attention 
to deadlines. 

9
00:00:42,480 --> 00:00:45,680
Iran's army added on Saturday 
that states complying with U.S. 

10
00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:49,200
sanctions may face difficulties 
transiting the Strait of Hormuz,

11
00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:52,280
a direct threat at countries 
honoring the blockade, which 

12
00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:55,640
includes most of Iran's major 
pre war oil customers. 

13
00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:58,880
An unnamed Iranian official said
the supreme leader is in 

14
00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:01,720
complete health and will 
eventually appear in public. 

15
00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:05,080
The first public statement about
Khamenei's fiscal status since 

16
00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:09,520
the war began 72 days ago. 
Pakistan's Prime Minister said 

17
00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:13,000
his country is in contact with 
the United States and Iran day 

18
00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:16,400
and night, and Iran's government
told Al Jazeera's Tehran 

19
00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:20,320
correspondent that at this stage
is not negotiating its nuclear 

20
00:01:20,320 --> 00:01:24,840
program. 
It is Sunday, May 10th, 2026, 

21
00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:30,000
day 72 of Operation Epic Fury. 
The framework letter has not 

22
00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:32,920
publicly arrived. 
Iran's officials are saying 

23
00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:36,080
they're not negotiating the 
nuclear program at this stage. 

24
00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:40,200
The US ceasefire holds, says 
Washington, and the French 

25
00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:43,120
aircraft carrier Charles de 
Gaulle is moving toward the Red 

26
00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:46,400
Sea and Gulf of Aden to prepare 
for a future freedom of 

27
00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:49,480
navigation mission in a Strait 
that is still producing attacks 

28
00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:53,960
on commercial vessels. 
This is episode 72 of Epic Fury,

29
00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:58,280
the US Iran War podcast. 
Follow on Spotify and Apple 

30
00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:01,080
podcast to stay with this story 
as it develops. 

31
00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:04,520
Let's get into it. 
Begin with the nuclear statement

32
00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:07,920
from Tehran, because it is the 
most significant single piece of

33
00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:11,320
information about Iran's actual 
negotiating position to emerge 

34
00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:14,280
since the framework document was
reported on Wednesday, and 

35
00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:17,760
because it directly and publicly
contradicts Trump's Oval Office 

36
00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:20,640
claim that they have agreed. 
Al Jazeera's correspondent, 

37
00:02:20,640 --> 00:02:23,680
reporting from Tehran on 
Thursday, told the network that 

38
00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:26,600
Iranian officials are 
specifically saying at this 

39
00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:29,640
stage they are not negotiating 
their nuclear program. 

40
00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:33,640
The negotiation, as Iran's 
officials describe it, is only 

41
00:02:33,640 --> 00:02:35,840
about ending the war on all 
fronts. 

42
00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:39,520
That formulation, not 
negotiating the nuclear program 

43
00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:42,200
at this stage, is the Iranian 
government's public 

44
00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:44,880
characterization of what the 
document it is reviewing 

45
00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:47,440
actually contains from Tehran's 
perspective. 

46
00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:51,200
Al Jazeera additionally reported
that Iran is requiring direct 

47
00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:54,120
guarantees from the United 
Nations Security Council that it

48
00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:58,240
will not be subject to renewed 
US or Israeli strikes, a demand 

49
00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:00,960
that exists alongside the 
nuclear non negotiation 

50
00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:04,160
position. 
That is an extraordinary demand.

51
00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:07,920
The UN Security Council 
guarantee against renewed US or 

52
00:03:07,920 --> 00:03:11,240
Israeli military action would 
require the Security Council to 

53
00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:14,200
pass a binding resolution 
constraining the United States, 

54
00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:17,960
which the US holds a power to 
veto and has vetoed every 

55
00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:20,400
attempt to constrain its 
military actions through that 

56
00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:23,080
body. 
No such resolution has ever been

57
00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:26,520
passed against a permanent 
members own military operations.

58
00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:30,800
Iran's demand for UN Security 
Council guarantees it maintained

59
00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:34,080
as a genuine condition rather 
than a negotiating position, 

60
00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:36,480
represents A structural 
impossibility. 

61
00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:39,800
The demand for UN Security 
Council guarantees, if it 

62
00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:43,240
represents Iran's genuine and 
non negotiable position rather 

63
00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:46,680
than a maximalist opening point 
designed to be traded away, may 

64
00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:49,560
itself be a substantial part of 
the explanation for why the 

65
00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:53,560
letter has not yet arrived. 
Not a nuclear deal, Not a 

66
00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:57,440
nuclear moratorium. 
An end to the war on all fronts,

67
00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:01,560
including Lebanon, including the
blockade, and possibly including

68
00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:04,600
security guarantees from the 
United Nations Security Council.

69
00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:08,160
That position appears on its 
face to be irreconcilable with 

70
00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:11,640
the framework is reported by 
Axios, Reuters and The Times of 

71
00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:15,120
Israel, which described the US 
document as containing a 12 year

72
00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:18,200
enrichment moratorium, the 
removal of Iran's highly 

73
00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:21,519
enriched uranium stockpile from 
the country, a prohibition on 

74
00:04:21,519 --> 00:04:25,560
underground nuclear facilities, 
and a snap IA inspection regime.

75
00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:28,400
If Iran's government is telling 
journalists on the ground in 

76
00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:31,680
Tehran that the nuclear program 
is not being negotiated at this 

77
00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:34,600
stage, and the US document 
contains exactly those 

78
00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,400
provisions, then one of three 
possibilities is true. 

79
00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:41,200
First, Iran's public statements 
about what is in the document, 

80
00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:43,880
characterizing it as a war 
ending arrangement rather than a

81
00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:47,120
nuclear framework, are accurate 
from Iran's perspective because 

82
00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:50,040
Iran has not accepted the 
nuclear provisions and regards 

83
00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:53,000
the document as a ceasefire 
framework that includes nuclear 

84
00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:57,080
language it has not agreed to. 
Second, Iran's public statements

85
00:04:57,080 --> 00:04:59,880
about the documents contents are
deliberately inaccurate, 

86
00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:03,080
strategically designed to 
maintain the domestic political 

87
00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:06,160
position that the nuclear 
program is non negotiable, while

88
00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:09,680
internal deliberation on exactly
how negotiable it might be under

89
00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,920
sufficient economic pressure 
continues behind closed doors. 

90
00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:16,360
3rd, the document Iran is 
reviewing is a different or 

91
00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:18,680
later version of the proposed 
framework than what was 

92
00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:22,440
described to American media, one
that may have deferred or soften

93
00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:25,560
the nuclear specifics in favor 
of a more general war ending 

94
00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:27,960
arrangement during the 
negotiations that have continued

95
00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:31,200
since Wednesday's reporting. 
All three possibilities are 

96
00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:34,520
genuinely consistent with a 
publicly available information. 

97
00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:37,320
The most important question they
generate is whether the 

98
00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:40,960
framework, when it is eventually
agreed or rejected, will contain

99
00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:44,920
specific and verifiable nuclear 
constraints or will rely on the 

100
00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:48,200
creative vagueness that vase 
described language that allows 

101
00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:50,720
both governments to sign 
something while the genuinely 

102
00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:54,040
substantive nuclear question is 
deferred to the 30 day follow on

103
00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:56,960
negotiations. 
If the framework is sufficiently

104
00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:01,160
vague on nuclear terms, it may 
be signed if it requires the 

105
00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:05,000
specific 12 year moratorium and 
physical stockpile removal from 

106
00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:07,920
the country that U.S. officials 
described to American media. 

107
00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:11,160
It faces the same obstacle that 
has blocked every previous 

108
00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:15,040
Iranian proposal, no confirmed 
internal Iranian consensus on 

109
00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:17,720
making those specific 
concessions, and a supreme 

110
00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:20,480
leader who has not been publicly
visible to issue that 

111
00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:24,480
authorization for 72 days. 
Ali Vais, director of the Iran 

112
00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:27,600
Project at the International 
Crisis Group and one of the most

113
00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:31,520
reliable independent analysts of
US Iran negotiations, offered 

114
00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:33,600
the clearest summary of where 
things stand. 

115
00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:36,800
He told Al Jazeera that both 
sides would either have to make 

116
00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:40,560
painful concessions or leave the
main areas of disagreement vague

117
00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:43,200
if they are to finalize a 
framework understanding at all 

118
00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:46,920
that is a precise and accurate 
diagnosis of the core problem, 

119
00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,200
painful concessions, or 
strategic vagueness. 

120
00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:54,600
Either Iran explicitly accepts a
specific nuclear constraint, A 

121
00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:58,280
moratorium, stockpile removal 
for Dow prohibition, and the 

122
00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:01,040
IRGC accepts that commitment is 
something other than 

123
00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:04,400
capitulation under duress. 
Or the framework uses language 

124
00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:07,080
that both sides can describe to 
their respective domestic 

125
00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:10,280
establishments, is consistent 
with their positions, language 

126
00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:12,960
vague enough to allow each 
government to call it a win, 

127
00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:16,200
while the genuinely substantive 
nuclear questions are deferred 

128
00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:19,800
to the 30 day negotiating period
that follows the vagueness 

129
00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:21,600
option. 
A framework that uses 

130
00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:24,760
deliberately ambiguous language 
on the nuclear question to allow

131
00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:27,320
both sides to sign something 
they can describe to their 

132
00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:29,800
respective domestic 
establishments is consistent 

133
00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:32,480
with their positions is the 
mechanism that has produced 

134
00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:35,320
signed agreements in previous 
diplomatically intractable 

135
00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:38,440
situations. 
It is not a genuine resolution 

136
00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:41,600
of the nuclear question. 
It is a postponement of the 

137
00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:44,360
resolution wrapped in signing 
ceremony language. 

138
00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:49,880
The 2015 JCPOA required 2 full 
years of negotiation precisely 

139
00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:52,800
because the nuclear provisions 
were not vague but specific. 

140
00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:56,760
Enrichment levels, centrifuge 
numbers, stockpile caps, 

141
00:07:56,880 --> 00:08:00,320
inspection mechanisms, sunset 
clauses, all defined with the 

142
00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:02,640
precision that produced a 
verifiable agreement. 

143
00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:06,320
A1 page framework with a 30 day 
follow on process has 

144
00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:09,280
structurally less space for the 
specificity that produces 

145
00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:13,040
genuine mutual constraint, and 
structurally more space for the 

146
00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:16,040
creative ambiguity that produces
a signing ceremony without 

147
00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:17,600
resolving the underlying 
dispute. 

148
00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:21,240
A document that commits Iran to 
never seeking a nuclear weapon. 

149
00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:24,440
The formulation Trump described 
from the Oval Office is 

150
00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:27,320
different from a document that 
commits Iran to a 12 year 

151
00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:30,240
enrichment moratorium with 
physical stockpile removal. 

152
00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:32,600
The 1st is a political 
statement. 

153
00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:36,120
The second is a verifiable 
technical commitment with 

154
00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:39,360
physical consequences. 
Iran's government can sign the 

155
00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,679
1st and argue it has not 
conceded anything substantive 

156
00:08:43,039 --> 00:08:46,120
because it has always maintained
it is not seeking a nuclear 

157
00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:48,760
weapon. 
The second requires physical, 

158
00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:52,840
irreversible action, moving 
uranium out of Iranian territory

159
00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:55,880
and into foreign custody. 
That cannot be undone by a 

160
00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:58,240
change of government or a 
reinterpretation of the 

161
00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:01,080
agreements text. 
Whether a creatively ambiguous 

162
00:09:01,080 --> 00:09:04,520
nuclear formulation satisfies 
Trump's stated floor, they will 

163
00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:06,880
not have nuclear weapons. 
They are handing over the 

164
00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:09,840
nuclear dust is the question 
that the frameworks exact 

165
00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:12,640
language, when it becomes 
public, will definitively 

166
00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:15,120
answer. 
If the language requires the 

167
00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:18,600
physical removal of the nuclear 
material, the framework is 

168
00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:21,560
substantive. 
If it requires only a political 

169
00:09:21,560 --> 00:09:24,840
commitment, the hard work has 
been deferred to the 30 days. 

170
00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:28,640
Iran's Foreign Ministry 
spokesperson said on Friday that

171
00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:31,160
Iran is not paying attention to 
deadlines. 

172
00:09:31,560 --> 00:09:34,000
That statement is directed at 
the American pressure 

173
00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:37,720
architecture, the implied 48 
hour window, the sign fast 

174
00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:41,240
imperative, the one big low 
threat Project Freedom Plus 

175
00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:43,680
warning that has characterized 
the administration's 

176
00:09:43,680 --> 00:09:47,440
communications since Wednesday. 
Iran is explicitly saying that 

177
00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:50,200
the American pressure calendar 
does not govern its 

178
00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:52,880
deliberation. 
Whether that means Iran is 

179
00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:56,320
genuinely indifferent to the US 
pressure timeline or whether it 

180
00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:59,600
means Iran is managing its 
domestic audience's perception 

181
00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:02,760
of the deliberation is sovereign
rather than coerced is what the 

182
00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:05,560
letters eventual arrival or non 
arrival will show. 

183
00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:08,840
Turn now to the common a health 
statement because Friday's 

184
00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:12,040
unnamed Iranian official 
assertion marks the first time 

185
00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:15,360
any Iranian official sources 
publicly addressed the Supreme 

186
00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:18,720
Leader's physical conditions 
since Operation Epic Fury began 

187
00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:22,400
72 days ago. 
An unnamed Iranian official told

188
00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:25,720
reporters on Friday that Supreme
Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is in 

189
00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:28,600
complete health and will 
eventually appear in public. 

190
00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:32,400
Khamenei has not been seen on 
camera since the war began. 

191
00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:35,000
He has not delivered a public 
address. 

192
00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:38,800
He has not appeared at any 
ceremony, prayer or state 

193
00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:41,400
function. 
His image has been presented 

194
00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:44,400
through AI generated video. 
His decisions have been 

195
00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:47,400
communicated through official 
statements attributed to him. 

196
00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:50,840
Russia's government confirmed 
receiving a written message from

197
00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:55,320
him, but no living appearance of
any kind, No video footage, no 

198
00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:58,760
photograph, no audio of his 
voice has been made public in 

199
00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:02,560
the 72 days since the war began.
The complete health statement 

200
00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:05,880
made by an unnamed official 
rather than by a name senior 

201
00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:09,200
Iranian figure does not resolve 
the questions about Common A's 

202
00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:12,160
governing capacity that have 
surrounded his absence for 72 

203
00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:14,440
days. 
It confirms that at least one 

204
00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:17,480
person with sufficient access to
make the claim is willing to 

205
00:11:17,480 --> 00:11:20,360
assert on the record that the 
Supreme Leader is healthy. 

206
00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:24,280
That is not a trivial statement.
Is the first time anyone in the 

207
00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:27,320
Iranian government has publicly 
addressed Common A's physical 

208
00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:31,200
conditions since the February 
28th strikes, but it is notably 

209
00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:33,520
lacking in detail and 
attribution. 

210
00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:37,400
The will eventually appear in 
public formulation is worth 

211
00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:42,400
examining closely. 
Not soon, Not imminently, Not in

212
00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:44,760
the coming days. 
Eventually. 

213
00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:48,520
That specific word choice, 
eventually, rather than soon, 

214
00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:51,960
imminently or in the coming 
days, leaves open an enormous 

215
00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:54,480
range of possibilities about 
when that appearance might 

216
00:11:54,480 --> 00:11:57,200
occur. 
Eventually can mean next week. 

217
00:11:57,760 --> 00:12:00,920
It can mean next year. 
It can mean when the security 

218
00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:04,000
situation allows it, which may 
itself be undefined. 

219
00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:07,800
Whether Common A's continued 
absence from any public view, no

220
00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:11,840
camera, no photograph, no audio,
no appearance is primarily a 

221
00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:15,760
security decision or primarily a
physical one has significant 

222
00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:17,840
implications for the framework 
deliberation. 

223
00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:21,080
A physically healthy supreme 
leader who is choosing not to 

224
00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:24,400
appear publicly for security 
reasons, keeping his location 

225
00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:27,160
unknown during an act of 
conflict is a very different 

226
00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:30,520
governing reality from a supreme
leader who is unable to appear 

227
00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:33,720
publicly because of an injury or
illness that limits his 

228
00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:36,120
functioning capacity. 
The former can issue 

229
00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:39,960
authorizations, direct internal 
deliberations, and approve 

230
00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:43,360
framework documents with a full 
institutional authority of a 

231
00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:46,280
functioning head of state. 
The latter raises legitimate 

232
00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:48,920
questions about whether the 
decisions attributed to him are 

233
00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:52,160
genuinely his own and whether 
any nuclear commitment made in 

234
00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:54,760
his name carries the 
institutional weight and long 

235
00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:57,680
term durability that a permanent
framework agreement requires. 

236
00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:01,160
The Officials complete health 
assertion does not definitively 

237
00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:03,920
resolve that question, but its 
existence. 

238
00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:06,680
The fact that an Iranian 
official felt the need to make 

239
00:13:06,680 --> 00:13:10,720
that assertion publicly on 
Friday after 72 days of silence 

240
00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:14,160
is itself a response to the 72 
day accumulation of 

241
00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:17,120
international and domestic 
uncertainty about the Supreme 

242
00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:20,520
Leader's status. 
It was issued the same day Rubio

243
00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:23,080
was hoping for a serious Iranian
offer. 

244
00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:28,200
The timing is not incidental. 
The Bahrain arrest of 41 people 

245
00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:31,640
alleged to have links to Iran's 
Revolutionary Guard Corps is the

246
00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:34,760
largest single Gulf state 
domestic security action of the 

247
00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:37,720
conflict to date. 
Bahrain's Interior Ministry 

248
00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:41,200
described the 41 detainees as 
the core of an alleged 

249
00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:45,640
organization tied to the IRGC. 
Legal proceedings are underway 

250
00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:48,920
and further investigations are 
continuing, the ministry said. 

251
00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:52,520
The cases involve alleged 
espionage for foreign entities 

252
00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:55,840
and expressions of support for 
Iranian attacks during the war. 

253
00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:59,600
Bahrain hosts the US Navy's 
Fifth Fleet at Naval Support 

254
00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:03,320
Activity Bahrain, the primary US
naval base in the Persian Gulf. 

255
00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:07,200
Bahrain, hosting the US Navy's 
Fifth Fleet, the primary US 

256
00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:09,920
naval command for the Gulf 
region, makes the alleged 

257
00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:13,720
presence of an IRGC linked 
organization inside the country 

258
00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:16,880
among the most operationally 
sensitive domestic security 

259
00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:18,800
discoveries of the entire 
conflict. 

260
00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:22,880
It follows the UAE's arrest of 
27 people in April and Kuwait's 

261
00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:26,160
arrest of 24 people in late 
April for broadly similar 

262
00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:29,480
alleged offenses, forming a 
clear and consistent regional 

263
00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:32,800
pattern of Gulf states hardening
their domestic security postures

264
00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:36,120
against alleged Iranian proxy 
and espionage networks during 

265
00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:39,800
the ceasefire period. 
The attack on the CMACGM San 

266
00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:43,120
Antonio is a significant 
escalation of the maritime 

267
00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:45,120
threat to commercial shipping in
the Strait. 

268
00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:49,360
CMA and CGM is one of the 
world's three largest container 

269
00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:52,280
shipping operators, a French 
headquarter conglomerate that 

270
00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:55,720
moves approximately 12% of 
global container cargo. 

271
00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:58,920
Its decisions about which routes
are safe for its vessels set the

272
00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:01,560
commercial benchmark for the 
entire container shipping 

273
00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:04,800
industry. 
When CMACGM stops routing ships 

274
00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:07,520
through a waterway, the 
insurance market and smaller 

275
00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:11,320
operators follow. 
A CMA CGM vessel being attacked 

276
00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:14,200
with crew members injured in the
ship Physically damaged while 

277
00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:18,040
transiting the Strait is not an 
anonymous third flag tanker hit 

278
00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:21,840
by unidentified projectiles. 
It is a named vessel belonging 

279
00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:25,560
to a Tier one global shipping 
operator damaged in a publicly 

280
00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:28,440
reported attack with injured 
crew on record. 

281
00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:31,800
That attack will be processed by
the global shipping industry is 

282
00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:34,520
clear evidence that the Strait 
of Hormuz is not safe for 

283
00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:37,880
commercial transit and that U.S.
military guidance Project 

284
00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:40,360
Freedom does not provide 
sufficient security for 

285
00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:43,560
commercial vessels to return. 
France's decision to move the 

286
00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:47,040
Charles de Gaulle Carrier Strike
Group into the Red Sea and Gulf 

287
00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:50,160
of Aden in preparation for a 
future freedom of navigation 

288
00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:53,160
mission in the Strait of Hormuz 
is France's institutional 

289
00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:56,080
response to the commercial and 
security reality its own 

290
00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:59,320
shipping is experiencing. 
France led the Maritime 

291
00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:02,920
Coalition planning meetings at 
the RAF base in Britain in late 

292
00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:05,320
April. 
It announced the second round of

293
00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:08,920
Israel Lebanon peace 
negotiations on Friday and is 

294
00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:12,400
now moving its primary carrier 
strike capability toward the 

295
00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:14,560
Strait. 
Britain and France have both 

296
00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:17,200
stressed that their freedom of 
navigation mission will not 

297
00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:20,040
launch until there is a 
sustainable ceasefire and the 

298
00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:23,120
maritime industry is reassured 
ships can pass safely. 

299
00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:27,360
The CMA CGM San Antonio attack 
makes both of those 

300
00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:30,880
preconditions sustainable 
ceasefire and maritime industry 

301
00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:33,760
reassurance further from being 
met rather than closer. 

302
00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:37,320
Pakistan Prime Minister Shabash 
Sharif said on Saturday that 

303
00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:40,520
Pakistan has been in contact 
with the United States and Iran 

304
00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:43,520
day and night in an effort to 
extend the ceasefire and reach a

305
00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:45,920
peace deal. 
The day and night formulation is

306
00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:47,840
notable. 
It suggests the pace of 

307
00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:50,920
Pakistan's mediation activity 
has not slowed during the 

308
00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:54,560
framework letter delay, but has,
if anything, intensified as the 

309
00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:57,680
gap between the US nuclear 
position and Iran's publicly 

310
00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:00,640
stated non negotiation of the 
nuclear program persists. 

311
00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,040
Every day that passes without 
the letter arriving is another 

312
00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:05,960
day. 
Pakistani mediation 

313
00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:09,000
infrastructure is actively 
engaged in attempting to close a

314
00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,920
gap that has resisted closure 
for 72 days. 

315
00:17:12,319 --> 00:17:15,480
Russia's Foreign Ministry said 
Saturday that Russia and Saudi 

316
00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:18,280
Arabia were both calling for 
diplomatic efforts to reach a 

317
00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:20,920
sustainable long term agreement 
to end the war. 

318
00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:24,079
Russia calling for a sustainable
long term agreement while 

319
00:17:24,079 --> 00:17:26,760
simultaneously maintaining its 
intelligence sharing 

320
00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:29,960
relationship with Iran, its 
defense meeting, coordination 

321
00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:33,080
with the Iranian deputy defense 
minister and its commitment to 

322
00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:35,000
do everything that serves Iran's
interest. 

323
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:38,480
Is Russia playing both sides of 
the diplomatic Ledger, publicly 

324
00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:41,800
supporting a deal while ensuring
Iran knows it has a powerful 

325
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:44,880
backer regardless of what the 
deal contains or whether it 

326
00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:47,840
materializes? 
Egypt and Qatar's foreign 

327
00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:51,640
ministers spoke on Saturday and 
jointly affirmed that diplomacy 

328
00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:55,280
is the sole path to resolution. 
The two countries represent the 

329
00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:57,840
Arab League's most active 
diplomatic voices in this 

330
00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:01,400
conflict and their Saturday call
reflects the Arab world shared 

331
00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:04,360
interest in a negotiated end 
that does not leave the Gulf 

332
00:18:04,360 --> 00:18:07,640
state security architecture 
permanently altered by a failed 

333
00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:10,560
or absent deal. 
The diplomatic coalition around 

334
00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:13,520
the US Iran process is now 
broader than at any previous 

335
00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:17,240
point in the war. 
Pakistan, Oman, Russia, Saudi 

336
00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:21,680
Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, France, 
Germany and implicitly China, 

337
00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:24,800
whose entities were sanctioned 
on Friday for supporting Iran's 

338
00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:28,040
defense industrial base. 
Every major regional and 

339
00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:31,000
international power is 
simultaneously calling for a 

340
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:33,520
deal and will not get one 
through their calling. 

341
00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:37,040
The only force compelling Iran's
consideration of the nuclear 

342
00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,800
framework is the American 
blockade that none of them 

343
00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,920
operates and the American 
military threat that none of 

344
00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:45,480
them has issued. 
The coalition's diplomatic 

345
00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:48,440
unanimity exists. 
The course of capacity that 

346
00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:51,600
makes it matter belongs 
exclusively to Washington. 

347
00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:54,760
If this podcast is helping you 
make sense of what's happening, 

348
00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:58,600
take 2 seconds to leave a five 
star rating on Spotify or Apple 

349
00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:01,400
Podcasts. 
It makes a huge difference to 

350
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:04,240
how many people find the show. 
And if you want the deeper 

351
00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:07,040
breakdown of what's really going
on and where this is heading, 

352
00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:10,680
you can unlock the premium 
episodes directly in Spotify or 

353
00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:14,600
Apple Podcasts. 
This has been episode 72 of Epic

354
00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:19,400
Fury, the US Iran war podcast. 
Iran's officials say the nuclear

355
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,240
program is not being negotiated 
at this stage. 

356
00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:24,760
Trump says they have already 
agreed to it. 

357
00:19:25,360 --> 00:19:28,440
France's Charles de Gaulle is 
moving toward the region. 

358
00:19:29,120 --> 00:19:33,320
Bahrain arrested 41 people with 
alleged IRGC links. 

359
00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:36,760
The ceasefire holds. 
The letter has not publicly 

360
00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:39,800
arrived. 
Pakistan is working day and 

361
00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:43,080
night, and the war is 
simultaneously closer to 

362
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,960
resolution and further from 
certainty than it has been at 

363
00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:50,000
any point in 72 days. 
We will be back very soon.