1 00:00:16,830 --> 00:00:20,870 A deal is closer than at any point since this war began, but 2 00:00:20,870 --> 00:00:24,150 it is not done. On Friday, Secretary of State 3 00:00:24,150 --> 00:00:27,190 Marco Rubio told reporters there were good signs that an 4 00:00:27,190 --> 00:00:29,350 agreement to end the conflict was insight. 5 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:32,800 On Thursday, Trump called off a military strike that had been 6 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:36,760 scheduled for Tuesday at the request of Gulf Arab leaders to 7 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:39,280 createspace for what the White House described as serious 8 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:42,040 negotiations. A1 page memorandum of 9 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:45,440 understanding, 14 points covering the end of the war, the 10 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:48,560 opening of the Strait of Hormuz and a framework for nuclear 11 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:51,560 talks was under active review in Tehran. 12 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:55,840 Iran had not yet formally responded, but two issues 13 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:59,360 remained unresolved and both of them cut to the very core of 14 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:03,080 what this war has been about, what happens to Iran's enriched 15 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:07,200 uranium stockpile and whether Iran can impose tolls on ships 16 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:09,040 passing through the Strait of Hormuz. 17 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:12,960 Day 85. The ceasefire is still holding. 18 00:01:13,440 --> 00:01:17,280 The deal is within reach, and the gap between within reach and 19 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:19,880 done is proving very difficult to close. 20 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:24,000 This is Epic Fury, the US Iran war podcast. 21 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:26,680 There is a great deal to work through today. 22 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:30,320 Let us get straight into it. The central diplomatic 23 00:01:30,320 --> 00:01:34,120 development of the past 24 hours is the continued review of the 24 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:36,920 one page memorandum of understanding that both sides 25 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:39,800 have been circulating through Pakistan's mediation channel. 26 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:42,960 The document, described by sources familiar with its 27 00:01:42,960 --> 00:01:45,760 contents as a 14 point framework, would formally 28 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:49,080 declare an end to the war, set out a timetable for opening the 29 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:51,640 Strait of Hormuz to international shipping and 30 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:55,160 establish a 30 day window for more detailed negotiations on 31 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:58,760 Iran's nuclear program. United States officials speaking 32 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:01,960 to multiple news outlets describe Friday as a day of 33 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:05,480 cautious but genuine optimism. The talks, which have been 34 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:08,720 proceeding through a combination of direct and indirect channels, 35 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:12,560 produce what 1 senior official characterized as progress on 36 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:15,080 several fronts. The broad architecture of the 37 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:18,160 deal, the end of hostilities, the lifting of the American 38 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:21,080 naval blockade, the unfreezing of billions of dollars in 39 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:25,000 Iranian assets, the removal of sanctions, appear to be broadly 40 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:27,040 accepted by both sides in principle. 41 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:31,360 The argument was now over the details and the details, as is 42 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:34,280 so often the case, and diplomacy of this complexity. 43 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:37,760 We're doing the hardest work. Trump himself, speaking to 44 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:40,960 reporters on Wednesday, said there was a very good chance the 45 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:44,960 two sides were nearing a deal. He added, as he has done before, 46 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:48,720 that he had felt that confidence previously, only for nothing to 47 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:51,880 materialize. But this time, he said, felt 48 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:54,400 different. He wrote on Truth Social that 49 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:57,200 assuming Iran agreed to give what had been agreed to, the 50 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,120 operation would be at an end and the blockade would allow the 51 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:02,520 straight to be open to all, including Iran. 52 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:04,680 He paired that statement with a threat. 53 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:08,080 Any failure to reach an acceptable deal would result in 54 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:11,200 a full, large scale assault on a moment's notice. 55 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:15,600 The two messages together, Peace within reach, war on standby 56 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:19,360 with a defining posture of the Trump administration as the 85th 57 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:21,520 day of this conflict came to a close. 58 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:25,040 Rubio, speaking at a press briefing on Thursday, was direct 59 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:26,760 about where the fault lines were. 60 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:30,360 He said the United States had absolutely no interest in any 61 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:34,600 arrangement that allowed Iran to control, restrict or profit from 62 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:36,400 traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. 63 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:39,800 He said no one in the world supported A tolling system on 64 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:42,480 the Strait. He said any deal that contains 65 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:45,920 such a provision would be, in his word, unfeasible. 66 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:50,400 Trump was more blunt, saying the administration had total control 67 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:53,520 of the waterway and intended to keep it open and free. 68 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:56,840 He described the Strait as international and made clear 69 00:03:56,840 --> 00:04:00,480 Washington had no intention of endorsing any framework that 70 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:04,000 suggested otherwise. The context behind that position 71 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:07,400 required some unpacking. Iranian officials had been 72 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:10,680 exploring, in discussions with Oman, A framework that would 73 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:14,200 allow Tehran to impose fees on commercial vessels transiting 74 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:16,360 the straight. The idea, from Iran's 75 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:18,760 perspective, carried a certain logic. 76 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:22,440 The straight passes through Iranian territorial waters on 77 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:24,920 one side. Tehran's argument was that every 78 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:28,120 tanker transiting its portion of the waterway was using Iranian 79 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:31,080 maritime space and that a toll regime will provide a 80 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:34,200 sustainable income stream to help offset the devastating 81 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:36,080 economic damage this war has caused. 82 00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:40,640 That damage has been severe. Iran's oil exports have been 83 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,640 choked by the American naval blockade since April. 84 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:48,120 Sanctions have cut off access to foreign exchange infrastructure. 85 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:50,880 Strikes in the first weeks of the conflict disrupted 86 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:53,760 industrial production across multiple provinces. 87 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:57,880 The Iranian economy is under acute strain, and any deal that 88 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:00,920 provides Tehran with ongoing revenue from the Strait has a 89 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:04,880 domestic political logic that is not difficult to understand. the 90 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:08,000 United States rejected that framing entirely. 91 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:11,720 The Strait of Hormuz is governed by International Maritime law. 92 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:15,520 The right of transit passage through international straits is 93 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,600 established in the United Nations Convention on the Law of 94 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:20,840 the Sea. No country has the right to 95 00:05:20,840 --> 00:05:24,000 charge tolls on international waters, regardless of the 96 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:27,200 geographical proximity of those waters to its coastline. 97 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:30,560 For the United States to sign an agreement that legitimized an 98 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:34,080 Iranian tolling regime would, in Washington's view, set a 99 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:37,040 precedent that could undermine freedom of navigation across the 100 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:39,200 globe. The implications for other 101 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:42,120 contested straits and waterways would be significant. 102 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:45,760 That impasse, as of Saturday morning, remained open. 103 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:49,800 The second outstanding issue is the uranium question, and in 104 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:52,920 some respects it is the more consequential of the two. 105 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:56,160 At the heart of the argument is a simple but heavily charged 106 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:58,240 question. Where does Iran's enriched 107 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:00,440 uranium stockpile go when the war ends? 108 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:05,680 Iran is believed to hold several 100kg of uranium enriched to 60% 109 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:08,800 purity, as well as quantities enriched to lower levels. 110 00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:12,360 The United States has insisted throughout the negotiations that 111 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:14,840 this material must leave Iranian soil. 112 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,800 Earlier in the talks, American officials floated transferring 113 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:21,000 the stockpile to the United States itself. 114 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:25,000 Russia, during the first months of the conflict, had offered to 115 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:28,360 take the material. Trump reportedly rejected that 116 00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:31,920 option, unwilling to allow Moscow a role in one of the 117 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:34,240 defining outcomes of his foreign policy. 118 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:37,920 Tehran had at various points indicated it might accept the 119 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:40,720 transfer principle in theory, though nothing was ever 120 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,960 formalized. In recent days, however, Iranian 121 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:46,920 officials made clear that removal of the uranium from 122 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,840 Iranian territory was not something they were prepared to 123 00:06:49,840 --> 00:06:51,880 accept without significant concessions. 124 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:55,320 In return, the supreme leader issued A directive stating the 125 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:58,040 enriched uranium must not leave the country. 126 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:01,400 Iranian sources told Reuters that Tehran was prepared to 127 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:04,840 accept strict international monitoring, snap inspections by 128 00:07:04,840 --> 00:07:08,520 the International Atomic Energy Agency and a moratorium on 129 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:11,760 further enrichment, but that the physical transfer of existing 130 00:07:11,760 --> 00:07:14,480 stockpiles to a foreign state was a different category of 131 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:17,280 concession entirely. It touched on Iranian 132 00:07:17,280 --> 00:07:20,640 sovereignty and on the domestic political constraints facing a 133 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:23,200 government that had already yielded more than a hard line 134 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:26,440 base was comfortable with. Trump responded by saying the 135 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:29,720 United States would recover the uranium and would probably 136 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:31,880 destroy it. He said the goal was 137 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:34,840 straightforward. No nuclear bomb, no nuclear 138 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:38,240 weapon, not even close to it. Whether that outcome could be 139 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:41,240 achieved through enhanced inspections in a moratorium 140 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:44,880 rather than physical removal of the material remained as of 141 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:48,640 Saturday, the central unresolved point in the negotiations. 142 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:52,440 Oil markets moved significantly across the week as the signals 143 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:55,680 from Washington shifted from imminent escalation to cautious 144 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:58,240 optimism. Brent crude, which had climbed 145 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:02,240 above $111.00 a barrel earlier in the week when a new round of 146 00:08:02,240 --> 00:08:06,120 strikes appeared imminent, fell back to close around $103.00 on 147 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:08,600 Friday. The weekly decline was the 148 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:12,360 largest in months. Brent fell more than 5%. 149 00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:17,040 United States West TX intermediate fell more than 8%. 150 00:08:17,440 --> 00:08:20,320 Analysts noted that the markets were pricing in the increased 151 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:24,080 probability of a deal, but that significant uncertainty remained 152 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:27,320 and that any breakdown in talks could reverse the moves rapidly. 153 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:30,680 Fadi Bairall, the executive director of the International 154 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:34,320 Energy Agency, reiterated on Friday his warning that global 155 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:37,120 oil stocks were depleting and that if the straight remained 156 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:40,039 effectively closed through the summer travel season, energy 157 00:08:40,039 --> 00:08:42,679 markets could enter what he called the red zone by July. 158 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:46,400 He said developing nations in Asia and Africa were already 159 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:48,720 bearing the greatest pain from this crisis. 160 00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:52,400 He said the Straits reopening was not just an American or 161 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:55,680 Iranian interest, it was a global one and the world was 162 00:08:55,680 --> 00:08:57,880 watching the negotiations with that understanding. 163 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:02,040 Energy executives warned against premature optimism even in the 164 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:04,520 event of a deal. A note from the banking group 165 00:09:04,560 --> 00:09:07,680 MUFG warned that full normalization of Middle East oil 166 00:09:07,680 --> 00:09:11,720 supply may not occur until 2027, given the scale of 167 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,480 infrastructure damage, the disruption to shipping insurance 168 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:17,520 markets, and the time required to recommission tanker routes 169 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:19,520 that have been dormant for nearly three months. 170 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:22,600 The economic scarring from this conflict was not going to 171 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:25,000 disappear the moment an agreement was signed. 172 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:28,800 On the military side, the ceasefire that Pakistan brokered 173 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:32,280 on April the 8th and that has been extended multiple times 174 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:34,160 since continue to hold on Saturday. 175 00:09:34,680 --> 00:09:38,400 There were no confirmed American or Israeli strikes on Iranian 176 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:42,120 territory overnight. Iran's military did not launch 177 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:45,160 any ballistic missile or drone attacks against regional 178 00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:47,680 targets. The silence was conspicuous 179 00:09:47,680 --> 00:09:51,000 after nearly three months of near daily fire exchanges, and 180 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:53,800 diplomats in Islamabad and elsewhere were interpreting it 181 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:56,640 as evidence that both sides have shared interest in maintaining 182 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:58,960 conditions under which a deal might still be reached. 183 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:02,600 The Gulf Arab states have played an important and underreported 184 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:04,480 role in the current diplomatic moment. 185 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:08,200 Trump specifically named the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia 186 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:11,240 and the United Arab Emirates as the parties who urged him on 187 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:14,200 Monday to hold off on the planned strikes and open space 188 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:17,120 for diplomacy. That those 3 governments, all of 189 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:19,840 which had spent months bearing the consequences of Iranian 190 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:23,040 missile and drone attacks on their soil, we're now actively 191 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:26,120 lobbying Washington for a negotiated settlement rather 192 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:28,520 than continued military pressure, was a meaningful 193 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:30,680 development. It pointed to fatigue in the 194 00:10:30,680 --> 00:10:34,040 Gulf, with extended disruption to regional commerce, into a 195 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:38,040 calculation that a deal, even an imperfect 1, was preferable to 196 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:41,120 an open-ended conflict whose resolution no one could clearly 197 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:43,360 map. Israel's position remained the 198 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:47,400 most complicated variable. Netanyahu had publicly signaled 199 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:50,760 that the military gains of Operation Epic Fury had created 200 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:53,240 an opportunity to reach an agreement that would protect 201 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:56,960 Israel's vital interests. But Israeli officials continue 202 00:10:56,960 --> 00:11:00,200 to express skepticism about whether the deal on the table 203 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:02,240 went far enough on the nuclear question. 204 00:11:02,680 --> 00:11:06,480 Israel had gone to war in part to ensure Iran could never 205 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:10,000 obtain a nuclear weapon. An agreement that allowed Iran 206 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:13,920 to retain enriched uranium on its soil, subject to monitoring, 207 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:17,000 was not the same as the dismantlement of Iran's nuclear 208 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:19,680 infrastructure that had originally been the stated aim. 209 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:23,440 How far Netanyahu was ultimately prepared to accept such a 210 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:26,400 framework remained one of the most consequential unknowns in 211 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:29,400 the negotiations. The domestic political picture 212 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:31,800 in Washington had also been shifting. 213 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:34,640 Republican support for the president handling of the 214 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:37,360 conflict had remained broadly solid through the months of 215 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:40,280 fighting, but there were signs of restlessness among members 216 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:43,040 representing states where the economic impact of sustained 217 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:45,240 high oil prices was felt most directly. 218 00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:48,520 Democrats continue to argue, with some purchase among 219 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:51,480 independent voters that the administration had entered the 220 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:54,560 conflict without a clear definition of what victory meant 221 00:11:54,760 --> 00:11:57,280 and without a sufficient plan for what came after. 222 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:00,560 Those arguments were gaining slightly more traction as the 223 00:12:00,560 --> 00:12:03,600 conflict entered its fourth month with no definitive end 224 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:05,920 insight. The humanitarian dimension of 225 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:09,160 the conflict continued to draw international condemnation. 226 00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:12,760 The death toll inside Iran over the course of the war had 227 00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:16,240 exceeded 1500. In Lebanon, where Hezbollah had 228 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:19,160 been engaged in its own sustained exchange of fire with 229 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:21,800 Israel, more than 1000 people had died. 230 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:25,080 Millions have been displaced from their homes across both 231 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:28,000 countries. United Nations Secretary General 232 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:32,000 Antonio Guterres called on all parties to facilitate unimpeded 233 00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:35,640 access for humanitarian workers and to allow the delivery of 234 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:39,000 essential supplies to civilian populations caught in the areas 235 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:41,960 of conflict. Pakistan's role as the mediating 236 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:43,920 power had been largely thankless. 237 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:48,080 Frequently disrupted and quietly essential, Islamabad had 238 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:51,000 absorbed multiple rounds of negotiation that collapsed 239 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:53,080 without result. It had maintained the 240 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:56,480 communication channel between Washington and Tehran even when 241 00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:59,840 both sides publicly denied that any such channel existed. 242 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:03,480 Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Asim 243 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:07,440 Munir had invested enormous political capital in positioning 244 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:10,080 Pakistan as the indispensable intermediary. 245 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:13,640 That investment was approaching a moment of genuine reckoning. 246 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:17,600 If a deal was reached, it would represent a defining diplomatic 247 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:20,880 achievement for Islamabad. If the talks fell apart and 248 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:24,080 fighting began again, some share the consequences Would be 249 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:27,080 Pakistan's to carry. The question being asked in 250 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:30,120 every capital on Saturday morning was the same one. 251 00:13:30,680 --> 00:13:34,640 Would Tehran say yes? Iran's formal response to the 14 252 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:38,520 point memorandum have been expected Within 48 hours of its 253 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:41,720 transmission. That window had passed without a 254 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:44,760 definitive answer. American officials told 255 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:46,480 reporters they were still waiting. 256 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:49,440 They said they were not alarmed by the delay. 257 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:52,720 Decisions of this magnitude made by a government that had 258 00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:55,960 suffered the destruction of its military infrastructure and the 259 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:59,200 deaths of senior officials across three months of war did 260 00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:01,560 not happen on a timetable set in Washington. 261 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:05,360 What was known was this. Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba 262 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:08,360 Khamenei, who had come to power and circumstances no one 263 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:12,040 anticipated and whose legitimacy at home rested in part are not 264 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:15,320 appearing to capitulate under foreign military pressure, was 265 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:17,600 weighing a set of concessions that would have been considered 266 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:20,280 politically inconceivable just 12 months ago. 267 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:23,280 The question was whether the terms on offer were ones he 268 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:26,800 could accept and still govern. There was another dimension to 269 00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:29,720 the negotiations that had received less attention but was 270 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:33,320 integral to understanding why a deal remained elusive even at 271 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:36,040 this late stage. That was the question of what 272 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:40,120 Iran's leadership was actually capable of agreeing to much. 273 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:43,880 Taba Khamenei had now been in office for nearly three months. 274 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:47,600 He had not been the first choice of many within the Assembly of 275 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:49,640 Experts. His appointment had been 276 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:52,760 controversial, rushed through under battlefield conditions, 277 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:55,360 with a country under bombardment and much of the senior 278 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:58,760 leadership dead or in hiding. His base of support within the 279 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:01,760 Islamic Republic's power structure rested primarily on 280 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:05,480 the hardliners within the IRGC and among the most conservative 281 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:07,240 elements of the clerical establishment. 282 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:10,920 Those constituencies had not gone to war to end up signing an 283 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:13,880 agreement that involves surrendering enriched uranium to 284 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:17,400 a foreign power. That political reality was not 285 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:20,880 an abstraction. It was the concrete constraint 286 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:22,760 within which Common A was operating. 287 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:26,400 Every concession he made carried a domestic cost. 288 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:30,360 The Americans understood this, or at least the more experienced 289 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:33,040 diplomats in the room did. The question was whether the 290 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:36,120 domestic cost of the concessions on offer have been reduced 291 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:38,760 enough by the military and economic pressure of the 292 00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:41,640 preceding months to fall within a range that Common A could 293 00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:44,280 manage politically and still remain in power. 294 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:49,400 If it had, a deal was possible. If it had not, no amount of 295 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:53,680 American optimism will produce 1 Western analysts who had studied 296 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:56,560 Iranian elite politics for decades cautioned against 297 00:15:56,560 --> 00:16:00,040 assuming that the Supreme Leader had unlimited freedom of action 298 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:02,680 simply because he had agreed to negotiate. 299 00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:05,840 The system of governance in the Islamic Republic was not a 300 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:09,320 unitary hierarchy in which the supreme leader decided 301 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:11,320 everything and everyone else complied. 302 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:15,800 It was a system of competing power centers, the IRGC, the 303 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:19,280 clergy, the presidency, the economic elite whose interest 304 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:21,840 had to be balanced. An agreement that the IRGC 305 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:25,640 believed was a capitulation would face resistance regardless 306 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:27,560 of what Khamenei put his name to. 307 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:31,040 That was part of why the uranium question was so difficult. 308 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:35,720 The IRGC had been the custodian of Iran's nuclear program for 309 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:37,680 years. The decision to hand that 310 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:41,760 program's most tangible asset, the enriched material itself, to 311 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:44,440 a foreign power was not a decision that Khamenei could 312 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:46,760 make without the Irgc's acceptance. 313 00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:50,280 Whether that acceptance had been secured, or whether it could be 314 00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:53,520 secured was something that outside observers could not know 315 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:55,760 with confidence. What was visible from the 316 00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:59,280 outside was a negotiation that had travelled further than many 317 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:02,640 had thought possible. In February, Iran had accepted a 318 00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:05,760 ceasefire. It had engaged in direct talks. 319 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:09,560 It had allowed the concept of a moratorium on enrichment to be 320 00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:12,920 placed on the table. Months ago, any one of those 321 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:15,480 steps would have been described as a red line. 322 00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:19,920 The war had moved those lines. The question is day 85 ended was 323 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:22,800 whether the remaining red lines could be moved far enough to 324 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:26,040 produce an agreement, or whether the negotiation with Stall and 325 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:28,760 the military option would once again become the answer. 326 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:32,160 Trump had told the military to stand ready to strike on a 327 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:35,400 moment's notice if an acceptable deal was not reached. 328 00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:38,120 Those were not words he had walked back. 329 00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:41,880 They sat alongside every optimistic briefing from Rubio, 330 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:45,880 every cautiously worded progress report from Islamabad, like a 331 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:47,760 sentence that had not yet been finished. 332 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:51,840 The world was learning to hold 2 possibilities at once, that this 333 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:54,080 ended in a deal and that it did not. 334 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:57,400 The broader international reaction to the weeks diplomatic 335 00:17:57,400 --> 00:18:00,560 developments was mixed. China's Foreign Minister Wang He 336 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:03,320 called on both sides to reach an agreement and urged the 337 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:06,640 immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing 338 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:09,720 that the waterway was critical to the Chinese economy and to 339 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:12,880 global trade flows. Beijing had been consistent in 340 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:15,360 its public calls for a negotiated settlement throughout 341 00:18:15,360 --> 00:18:18,240 the conflict, even as its private communications with 342 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:21,400 Tehran had been the subject of ongoing speculation in 343 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:24,520 intelligence circles. Russia maintained its position 344 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:27,720 of formal opposition to the American military campaign, 345 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,160 while quietly acknowledging through back channels that 346 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:33,560 negotiated into the conflict would serve Moscow's interests. 347 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:37,320 European governments, led by France and Germany, continue to 348 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,720 push for a diplomatic outcome and expressed cautious support 349 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:43,760 for the mediation framework being advanced through Pakistan. 350 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,440 the United Kingdom maintained its position of publicly backing 351 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:50,840 American policy while privately urging a faster path to 352 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:53,800 negotiations. Prime Minister Keir Starmer had 353 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:56,680 said consistently that Iran could end this by accepting 354 00:18:56,680 --> 00:19:00,120 terms and that Britain would support any credible diplomatic 355 00:19:00,120 --> 00:19:02,400 process that brought the conflict to a close. 356 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:06,800 That position had not changed. What had changed was the sense 357 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:10,040 in London, as in most Western capitals, that the end of this 358 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:13,440 conflict was now within the realm of the near future, rather 359 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:16,680 than the indefinite horizon it had seemed to occupy from much 360 00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:19,800 of March and April. The mood in financial markets on 361 00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:24,160 Friday reflected that shift. Global equities recovered some 362 00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:26,560 of the losses sustained earlier in the week. 363 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,920 Gold, which had risen sharply when the prospect of renewed 364 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:33,840 American strikes loomed largest earlier in the week, edged back 365 00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:36,680 from recent highs. Shipping insurance premiums for 366 00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:39,760 vessels in the Gulf region ticked slightly lower, though 367 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:42,200 they remained at historically elevated levels. 368 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:44,840 The markets were not declaring victory. 369 00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:48,320 They were tentatively pricing in the possibility that the end was 370 00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:51,320 closer than it had been. If this podcast is helping you 371 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:54,680 make sense of what's happening, take 2 seconds to leave a five 372 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:57,240 star rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. 373 00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:00,880 It makes a huge difference to how many people find the show. 374 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:03,720 And if you want the deeper breakdown of what's really going 375 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:06,520 on and where this is heading, you can unlock the premium 376 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:09,640 episodes directly in Spotify or Apple Podcasts. 377 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:13,520 Day 85 ends with a straight still closed, the uranium still 378 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:17,120 in Iran, the ceasefire still holding and a deal still within 379 00:20:17,120 --> 00:20:20,320 reach but not yet signed. Somewhere in the space between 380 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:23,680 those facts lies the answer to whether three months of war ends 381 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:26,080 with an agreement or with a new escalation. 382 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:30,520 The response is expected. The world is watching. 383 00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:34,040 We will be back with the latest the moment it comes. 384 00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:38,240 This is Epic Fury, the US Iran war podcast.