Donald Trump held his first press conference since Operation
Epic Fury began on Monday evening.
Standing at the podium in the ballroom of his Doral Golf Club
in Miami, FL, he told the world the war would end very soon.
He told House Republicans earlier in the day it would be a
short term excursion and then in almost the same breath he told
reporters the United States had not won enough yet and had more
to do. 2 statements, one man, one press conference.
Both true and Trump's framing. Because he told one reporter who
pointed out the contradiction that the end of the war and the
beginning of building a new country were not opposites, they
were the same thing. It is Tuesday, March 10th, 2026,
day 11 of Operation Epic Fury. This is episode 11 of Epic Fury,
the US Iran war podcast. Let us get into it.
Trump's press conference at Doral on Monday evening was the
first time he'd stood before cameras to take questions on the
Iran war since the operation began 10 days ago.
He arrived having spent the day delivering 2 significantly
different signals to two different audiences, and a press
conference attempted to reconcile them.
Earlier in the day, speaking to House Republicans at the same
Doral resort, Trump had boasted that Iran's military, Navy and
air defenses were all but destroyed.
He said the war would end pretty quickly.
He predicted oil prices would fall.
He described the operation as a short term excursion into
something that had to be done. He said the United States was
getting very close to finishing. Those remarks caused stock
markets, which had been in freefall since the appointment
of Mojtaba Khamenei, to partially reverse course.
Oil prices, which had hit $110 a barrel overnight, dropped back
to around $100 as traders interpreted the remarks as a
genuine signal that a conclusion was inside.
Then, at the press conference, Trump complicated the picture.
He said the United States had already won in many ways, but
had not won enough. He said the country was going
forward, more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory
that would end this long running danger once and for all.
He said 47 years of Iranian aggression should have been
dealt with a long time ago. He said there was still more to
do. When a reporter pointed out the
tension between saying the war would end soon and saying there
was more to do, Trump said both were true.
The end of the fighting was approaching, but the beginning
of building a new Iran was just starting.
He was asked directly whether Mojtaba Khamenei had a target on
his back. He said it would be
inappropriate to comment on that.
He said he was disappointed by Iran's choice.
He said he thought it would lead to just more the same problem
for the country. And he declined to say whether
the new supreme leader was acceptable or unacceptable,
walking back from the categorical public declaration
he had made just days earlier. The signals Trump sent on
Monday, taken together, paint a picture of a president who is
simultaneously managing market expectations, managing
Republican domestic politics, managing Israeli expectations
and managing a military operation that has no clear
diplomatic endpoint. The suggestion that the war
could end soon 'cause stocks to rise and oil to fall.
Both of those are politically useful outcomes for a president
whose approval ratings are being watched against a backdrop of
$3.50 petrol prices. But the simultaneous insistence
that there is more to do and that ultimate victory is the
goal, reflects the reality that the military campaign continues
at full intensity and that no ceasefire framework is anywhere
near the table. Trump also threatened Iran with
a level of escalation not previously stated publicly.
He posted on Truth Social that he would hit Iran 20 times
harder if it tried to stop oil from flowing through the Strait
of Hormuz. 20 times harder. the United States has already struck
more than 3000 targets in Iran in 10 days, destroyed its Navy
and Air Force, killed its supreme leader and dozens of its
commanders, and fired more ordnance than any campaign in
recent decades. 20 times harder than that is a statement whose
strategic meaning is almost impossible to fully calculate,
but its intent is clear. The Strait of Hormuz will be
kept open, or the consequences for Iran will be escalated to a
level beyond what has already occurred.
The most significant new operational development on
Monday was a revelation that Trump is reportedly weighing the
deployment of American special forces on the ground inside Iran
to physically locate and seize the country's stockpile of
highly enriched uranium. Bloomberg reported the story on
Monday, citing officials familiar with the deliberations.
The reasoning is straightforward and deeply alarming.
American intelligence has confirmed that Iran had
accumulated 460kg of uranium enriched to 60%, and that a
separate underground facility contains uranium at higher
enrichment levels. Air strikes can destroy
facilities. They cannot seize material.
If that highly enriched uranium is not physically located and
secured, it remains available to the new Iranian government, to a
successor state, to any non state actor that could gain
access to an ungoverned or destabilized part of Iran, or to
any foreign power that might intervene in a vacuum, the
number of American special forces required to locate and
secure uranium stockpiles in a country the size of Iran under
active aerial bombardment, against the potential resistance
of an IRGC that has pledged to fight until its last drop of
blood is not small. This is not a small team with a
specific target and a specific extraction point.
This is a ground operation of significant scale and risk, and
the fact that it is being actively considered tells you
something important about how uncertain the American
intelligence picture on Iran's nuclear material remains after
10 days of intensive strikes. ACNN report published on Monday
added further weight to that concern.
Current and former American officials told CNN that
recovering Iran's remaining highly enriched uranium,
believed to be hidden underground, would require a
significant number of United States ground troops.
Airstrikes alone are not sufficient to physically locate
and secure the material. This raises one of the most
profound strategic questions of this entire conflict.
What is the end game for Iran's nuclear material?
Strikes can degrade enrichment facilities.
They can destroy centrifuges. They can set the program back by
years, but unless the highly enriched uranium that already
exists is physically secured, the nuclear threat that Trump
identified as the primary justification for Operation Epic
Fury has not been eliminated. It has been displaced and
displaced. Highly Enriched uranium in a
destabilized country is, by any security assessment, more
dangerous than highly enriched uranium in a country with a
functioning government and physical security protocols.
Iran's deputy Foreign Minister Chasm Gurabadi provided the
clearest articulation yet of Iran's ceasefire conditions on
Monday, and they represent a meaningful, if preliminary,
diplomatic signal. He said Tehran's first condition
for any cessation of hostilities is that no further aggression be
launched against Iran. That is a demand for a complete
halt to American and Israeli strikes as the precondition for
negotiations, not as their outcome.
He also confirmed that several countries, including China,
Russia and France, have contacted Iran regarding efforts
toward a cessation of hostilities.
The list of mediating countries is notable.
China has strategic economic interests and ending this
conflict as quickly as possible given its dependence on Gulf
energy. Russia has strategic interests
in it continuing given the oil price windfall and the drain on
American munition stockpiles. France has been deploying
military assets to the region while simultaneously calling for
a ceasefire. The fact that Iran is talking to
all three suggests it is leaving diplomatic doors ajar, even
while its foreign minister publicly rules out a ceasefire
and it's RGC launches fresh waves of drone and missile
attacks every day. An Iranian Foreign Ministry
spokesman added a more inflammatory dimension to the
diplomatic picture, claiming the United States was after Iranian
oil reserves and aim to weaken and divide Iran.
The framing deliberately echoes 1953 and is designed to resonate
across the entire Iranian political spectrum, from
hardliners to reformists. The Iranian government is
constructing a national narrative of this conflict as a
21st century version of the Western theft of Iranian
resources, and it is deploying that narrative with consistency
and discipline across every level of its communications
apparatus. CENTCOM confirmed on Monday that
the campaign has now struck thousands of high value targets
across Iran, including command centers, air defense systems,
missile sites, production facilities, and airfields.
It confirmed major destruction of Iran's naval assets and
severe degradation of Iran's offensive missile arsenal.
And it confirmed for the first time in direct public language,
that the operation is specifically designed to prevent
Iran from ever acquiring nuclear weapons, not prevent Iran from
currently having nuclear weapons, prevent Iran from ever
acquiring them. That formulation implies the
destruction of the entire industrial, scientific, and
human infrastructure that Iran would need to rebuild a nuclear
program from scratch. Achieving that objective
comprehensively is one that air strikes alone, however
intensive, may not be fully capable of delivering.
The Israeli military continued its strikes on Monday with what
it described as a new wave targeting the infrastructure of
the terror regime in central Iran.
Israel's Foreign Ministry called Mojtaba Khamenei another tyrant
and said his hands are already stained with the bloodshed that
defined his father's rule. Israel is not signaling that the
appointment changes its targeting calculus.
It killed a Balka Simba Ban, the man appointed to serve the
incoming supreme leader, before the announcement was even
formally made. The new supreme leader's
personal security situation is extraordinarily precarious.
Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a personal telegram to
Mojtaba Khamenei congratulating him on becoming Iran's new
supreme leader. The message reaffirmed Russia's
unwavering support for Tehran. Putin described the tenure in
the post as requiring great courage and dedication at a time
when Iran is opposing armed aggression.
Russia's congratulations, combined with its ongoing
provision of targeting intelligence on the locations of
American warships, represents the clearest possible statement
of where Moscow stands. It is not neutral.
It is actively sustaining Iran's ability to fight while
harvesting the economic benefits of higher oil prices.
Putin also said on Monday that Russia would supply oil and gas
to European buyers, provided such cooperation was long term
and free from political pressures.
European natural gas prices have nearly doubled since Operation
Epic Fury began. Putin is offering an alternative
to Gulf energy on conditions that amount to accept Russian
energy permanently and remove the political objections that
have built up since the invasion of Ukraine.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban reinforced that message,
calling on the European Union to suspend sanctions on Russian
energy imports in response to rising energy prices.
The war in Iran is actively rehabilitating Russian energy
leverage over Europe in real time.
Canada entered the diplomatic picture in a new way on Monday.
Prime Minister Mark Carney, speaking alongside Australian
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, declined to categorically rule
out Canadian military participation in the conflict.
He said one can never categorically rule out
participation. He said Canada will stand by its
allies, and he simultaneously said the American and Israeli
strikes are inconsistent with international law.
Canada's position is therefore that the strikes are illegal,
that Canada stands with the allies conducting them and that
military participation cannot be ruled out.
That is one of the more extraordinary combinations of
positions to emerge from any allied government in this
conflict. The G7 foreign ministers convene
an emergency meeting on Monday. They issued a joint statement
calling for immediate de escalation and expressing deep
concern about the humanitarian situation and global energy
markets. The statement notably did not
condemn the American and Israeli strikes.
France separately requested an emergency United Nations
Security Council meeting to address Lebanon and release €6
million in emergency humanitarian aid.
France is deploying military assets to the region, calling
for a ceasefire and providing humanitarian aid to civilians
displaced by the operations of its closest ally.
The contradictions in that position reveal the full
complexity of what it means to be a European ally of the United
States in a war that European governments believe is
inconsistent with international law but lack the political will
to oppose. South Korea's President Lee
Jamie Young made a statement on Monday that attracted
significant strategic attention in Washington.
He said South Korea cannot stop the United States from
redeploying some of its Patriot missile systems to the Middle
East. Reports had emerged that the
United States was moving Patriot systems from Ozone Air Base for
possible shipping to the region. If true, this represents an
alarming strategic calculation, reducing the air defense
capability of the Korean Peninsula, where approximately
28,500 American troops serve as a deterrent against North Korean
aggression in order to replenish depleted Middle East stockpiles.
The signal that sends to Pyongyang, which has been
watching American munitions expenditure with intense
interest, is potentially destabilizing.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Iraq's Prime Minister on
Monday to reiterate the importance of safeguarding
American diplomatic personnel and facilities after Iran backed
militias launched fresh rocket attacks on the American embassy
in Baghdad. Iraq hosts American forces, has
a Shia Muslim population deeply sympathetic to Iran and a
political establishment divided between pro Iranian and pro
American factions. Its sovereignty is being
violated simultaneously by American and Israeli strikes on
Iranian backed targets and by Iranian backed militia attacks
on American installations. Iraq has asked all parties to
respect its sovereignty. All parties are ignoring it.
The economic picture on Monday shifted from extreme alarm to a
more contained but still deeply concerning position.
Oil dropped back to around $100 after Trump's remarks about the
war ending soon. That price still represents a
57% increase from the pre war level.
It remains highly vulnerable to any development that contradicts
Trump's optimistic framing. A major Iranian strike on Saudi
energy infrastructure and Israeli escalation, or any
development involving Hormuz shipping could send oil back
toward 110 or higher within hours.
Traders are not pricing in peace.
They are pricing in a brief pause in the worst case
trajectory. Human Rights Watch released a
significant new report on Monday.
The organization said it had uncovered evidence that Israel
used white phosphorus in residential areas of southern
Lebanon earlier in the conflict, in violation of international
humanitarian law. White phosphorus ignites on
contact with oxygen and burns out approximately 800°C.
It's used in residential areas where it can land on civilians
and cause catastrophic burns that are extremely difficult to
extinguish and treat. Is considered a violation of the
principle of proportionality and distinction under the laws of
armed conflict. Human Rights Watches report
coming on the same day if formally called the min of
school air strike a potential war crime means the organization
has now raised formal legal concerns about two separate
incidents in the same week. Neither Israel nor the United
States has formally responded to the white phosphorus finding as
a Monday evening. The casualty picture across the
conflict as of Monday morning provided one of the most
comprehensive single snapshots of the human cost to date.
Iran's deputy health minister confirmed that at least 55
healthcare workers have been wounded and 11 killed in Iran,
including four physicians, 2 nurses, and three emergency
workers in Israel. At least 13 Israelis have been
killed and 1929 wounded in Iranian attacks since February
28th. In Bahrain, 32 people were
wounded in an Iranian drone attack on Sunday alone for them
in critical condition, including children requiring surgery.
Jordan announced it had been targeted by 119 Iranian missiles
and drones, injuring 14 people. An eighth American service
member has been confirmed killed.
The conflict has now claimed the lives of people from at least 12
countries, including Indian nationals killed in the Strait
of Hormuz, a Chinese national killed in Iran, a Filipino
national killed in Israel, Nepali and Pakistani nationals
killed in the UAE, Bangladeshi nationals killed in Bahrain, and
two Japanese nationals detained inside Iran.
This is not a conflict between two countries.
In its human consequences, it has already touched every corner
of the world. The domestic political situation
in the United States on Day 11 reflected a country divided
along partisan lines but in which the political momentum is
currently with the president. The war powers resolutions in
both chambers failed. Republican support held firm.
Democratic opposition was near universal but insufficient to
force any constraint on the executive.
Trump's suggestion at Doral that the war could end soon gave the
administration a significant boost.
Markets for us all, Phil The domestic political environment
for continuing the operation on Day 11 is stable.
What is not stable is the diplomatic environment, the
humanitarian situation, the global energy market, the
nuclear material question, and the question of what comes
after. Iran's Air Force is gone.
Its Navy is gone. Its air defenses are largely
destroyed. Its supreme leader is dead.
Its missile attacks are down 90% from their peak.
Its economy is being further devastated.
And yet Iran has a new supreme leader who has pledged to fight.
Its IRGC has pledged allegiance until the last drop of blood.
Its foreign minister has rejected any ceasefire.
Russia is providing targeting intelligence and congratulating
its new leader. And somewhere underground in a
location American intelligence is not yet definitively
identified, there is a stockpile of highly enriched uranium that
air strikes alone cannot reach. Trump says the war will end very
soon. He says oil will go down.
He says it has been a short term excursion.
He also says there is more to do and that ultimate victory is the
goal. Day 11.
The most important question is no longer whether America is
winning the war, it is whether America knows what winning looks
like when it is finished. That is episode 11 of Epic Fury,
the US Iran war podcast. The story is moving fast.
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