1 00:00:16,810 --> 00:00:19,810 Donald Trump held his first press conference since Operation 2 00:00:19,810 --> 00:00:21,930 Epic Fury began on Monday evening. 3 00:00:22,130 --> 00:00:25,250 Standing at the podium in the ballroom of his Doral Golf Club 4 00:00:25,250 --> 00:00:29,490 in Miami, FL, he told the world the war would end very soon. 5 00:00:30,210 --> 00:00:33,210 He told House Republicans earlier in the day it would be a 6 00:00:33,210 --> 00:00:37,400 short term excursion and then in almost the same breath he told 7 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:40,680 reporters the United States had not won enough yet and had more 8 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:45,560 to do. 2 statements, one man, one press conference. 9 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:50,040 Both true and Trump's framing. Because he told one reporter who 10 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:52,640 pointed out the contradiction that the end of the war and the 11 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:56,080 beginning of building a new country were not opposites, they 12 00:00:56,080 --> 00:01:01,080 were the same thing. It is Tuesday, March 10th, 2026, 13 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:07,160 day 11 of Operation Epic Fury. This is episode 11 of Epic Fury, 14 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:10,920 the US Iran war podcast. Let us get into it. 15 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:14,280 Trump's press conference at Doral on Monday evening was the 16 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:17,160 first time he'd stood before cameras to take questions on the 17 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:20,320 Iran war since the operation began 10 days ago. 18 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:23,680 He arrived having spent the day delivering 2 significantly 19 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:26,720 different signals to two different audiences, and a press 20 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:28,560 conference attempted to reconcile them. 21 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:31,800 Earlier in the day, speaking to House Republicans at the same 22 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:36,240 Doral resort, Trump had boasted that Iran's military, Navy and 23 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:38,160 air defenses were all but destroyed. 24 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:40,640 He said the war would end pretty quickly. 25 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:43,440 He predicted oil prices would fall. 26 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:47,120 He described the operation as a short term excursion into 27 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:50,440 something that had to be done. He said the United States was 28 00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:54,480 getting very close to finishing. Those remarks caused stock 29 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:57,320 markets, which had been in freefall since the appointment 30 00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:00,280 of Mojtaba Khamenei, to partially reverse course. 31 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:04,920 Oil prices, which had hit $110 a barrel overnight, dropped back 32 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:08,280 to around $100 as traders interpreted the remarks as a 33 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:10,560 genuine signal that a conclusion was inside. 34 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:14,640 Then, at the press conference, Trump complicated the picture. 35 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:18,200 He said the United States had already won in many ways, but 36 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:21,240 had not won enough. He said the country was going 37 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:24,640 forward, more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory 38 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,480 that would end this long running danger once and for all. 39 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:31,160 He said 47 years of Iranian aggression should have been 40 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:34,520 dealt with a long time ago. He said there was still more to 41 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:36,720 do. When a reporter pointed out the 42 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:39,800 tension between saying the war would end soon and saying there 43 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:42,320 was more to do, Trump said both were true. 44 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:45,960 The end of the fighting was approaching, but the beginning 45 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:48,240 of building a new Iran was just starting. 46 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:52,600 He was asked directly whether Mojtaba Khamenei had a target on 47 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:54,480 his back. He said it would be 48 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:56,400 inappropriate to comment on that. 49 00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:59,400 He said he was disappointed by Iran's choice. 50 00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:02,760 He said he thought it would lead to just more the same problem 51 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:05,440 for the country. And he declined to say whether 52 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:08,440 the new supreme leader was acceptable or unacceptable, 53 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:11,400 walking back from the categorical public declaration 54 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:14,720 he had made just days earlier. The signals Trump sent on 55 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:18,160 Monday, taken together, paint a picture of a president who is 56 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:21,680 simultaneously managing market expectations, managing 57 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:25,440 Republican domestic politics, managing Israeli expectations 58 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:28,480 and managing a military operation that has no clear 59 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:31,040 diplomatic endpoint. The suggestion that the war 60 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:34,200 could end soon 'cause stocks to rise and oil to fall. 61 00:03:34,640 --> 00:03:37,720 Both of those are politically useful outcomes for a president 62 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:40,480 whose approval ratings are being watched against a backdrop of 63 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:44,960 $3.50 petrol prices. But the simultaneous insistence 64 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,880 that there is more to do and that ultimate victory is the 65 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:51,200 goal, reflects the reality that the military campaign continues 66 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:54,600 at full intensity and that no ceasefire framework is anywhere 67 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:57,480 near the table. Trump also threatened Iran with 68 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:00,720 a level of escalation not previously stated publicly. 69 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:04,440 He posted on Truth Social that he would hit Iran 20 times 70 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:07,440 harder if it tried to stop oil from flowing through the Strait 71 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:11,840 of Hormuz. 20 times harder. the United States has already struck 72 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:16,279 more than 3000 targets in Iran in 10 days, destroyed its Navy 73 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:19,440 and Air Force, killed its supreme leader and dozens of its 74 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:22,720 commanders, and fired more ordnance than any campaign in 75 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:26,360 recent decades. 20 times harder than that is a statement whose 76 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:30,080 strategic meaning is almost impossible to fully calculate, 77 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:34,000 but its intent is clear. The Strait of Hormuz will be 78 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:37,840 kept open, or the consequences for Iran will be escalated to a 79 00:04:37,840 --> 00:04:39,800 level beyond what has already occurred. 80 00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:42,760 The most significant new operational development on 81 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:45,720 Monday was a revelation that Trump is reportedly weighing the 82 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:49,080 deployment of American special forces on the ground inside Iran 83 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:51,960 to physically locate and seize the country's stockpile of 84 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:55,520 highly enriched uranium. Bloomberg reported the story on 85 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:59,120 Monday, citing officials familiar with the deliberations. 86 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:02,440 The reasoning is straightforward and deeply alarming. 87 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:05,640 American intelligence has confirmed that Iran had 88 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:10,840 accumulated 460kg of uranium enriched to 60%, and that a 89 00:05:10,840 --> 00:05:14,080 separate underground facility contains uranium at higher 90 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:16,720 enrichment levels. Air strikes can destroy 91 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:20,040 facilities. They cannot seize material. 92 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:23,840 If that highly enriched uranium is not physically located and 93 00:05:23,840 --> 00:05:27,680 secured, it remains available to the new Iranian government, to a 94 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:30,600 successor state, to any non state actor that could gain 95 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:34,200 access to an ungoverned or destabilized part of Iran, or to 96 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,200 any foreign power that might intervene in a vacuum, the 97 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:40,240 number of American special forces required to locate and 98 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:44,080 secure uranium stockpiles in a country the size of Iran under 99 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:47,520 active aerial bombardment, against the potential resistance 100 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:50,960 of an IRGC that has pledged to fight until its last drop of 101 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:54,640 blood is not small. This is not a small team with a 102 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:57,760 specific target and a specific extraction point. 103 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:02,800 This is a ground operation of significant scale and risk, and 104 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:05,200 the fact that it is being actively considered tells you 105 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:07,720 something important about how uncertain the American 106 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:11,160 intelligence picture on Iran's nuclear material remains after 107 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:15,680 10 days of intensive strikes. ACNN report published on Monday 108 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:17,800 added further weight to that concern. 109 00:06:18,280 --> 00:06:21,040 Current and former American officials told CNN that 110 00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:23,960 recovering Iran's remaining highly enriched uranium, 111 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:26,080 believed to be hidden underground, would require a 112 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:28,840 significant number of United States ground troops. 113 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:32,480 Airstrikes alone are not sufficient to physically locate 114 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:35,640 and secure the material. This raises one of the most 115 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:39,040 profound strategic questions of this entire conflict. 116 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:42,320 What is the end game for Iran's nuclear material? 117 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:45,520 Strikes can degrade enrichment facilities. 118 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:50,600 They can destroy centrifuges. They can set the program back by 119 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:54,200 years, but unless the highly enriched uranium that already 120 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:57,560 exists is physically secured, the nuclear threat that Trump 121 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:00,800 identified as the primary justification for Operation Epic 122 00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:04,960 Fury has not been eliminated. It has been displaced and 123 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:07,160 displaced. Highly Enriched uranium in a 124 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:11,040 destabilized country is, by any security assessment, more 125 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:14,000 dangerous than highly enriched uranium in a country with a 126 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:16,840 functioning government and physical security protocols. 127 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:20,480 Iran's deputy Foreign Minister Chasm Gurabadi provided the 128 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:23,720 clearest articulation yet of Iran's ceasefire conditions on 129 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:26,800 Monday, and they represent a meaningful, if preliminary, 130 00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:30,280 diplomatic signal. He said Tehran's first condition 131 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:34,120 for any cessation of hostilities is that no further aggression be 132 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:37,360 launched against Iran. That is a demand for a complete 133 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:41,040 halt to American and Israeli strikes as the precondition for 134 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:43,280 negotiations, not as their outcome. 135 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:46,520 He also confirmed that several countries, including China, 136 00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:49,960 Russia and France, have contacted Iran regarding efforts 137 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:52,000 toward a cessation of hostilities. 138 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:55,000 The list of mediating countries is notable. 139 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:58,280 China has strategic economic interests and ending this 140 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:01,680 conflict as quickly as possible given its dependence on Gulf 141 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:04,200 energy. Russia has strategic interests 142 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:07,680 in it continuing given the oil price windfall and the drain on 143 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:11,120 American munition stockpiles. France has been deploying 144 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:14,840 military assets to the region while simultaneously calling for 145 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:17,520 a ceasefire. The fact that Iran is talking to 146 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:21,360 all three suggests it is leaving diplomatic doors ajar, even 147 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:24,440 while its foreign minister publicly rules out a ceasefire 148 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:27,920 and it's RGC launches fresh waves of drone and missile 149 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:30,720 attacks every day. An Iranian Foreign Ministry 150 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:33,600 spokesman added a more inflammatory dimension to the 151 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:37,080 diplomatic picture, claiming the United States was after Iranian 152 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:39,679 oil reserves and aim to weaken and divide Iran. 153 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:44,440 The framing deliberately echoes 1953 and is designed to resonate 154 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:47,280 across the entire Iranian political spectrum, from 155 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:50,280 hardliners to reformists. The Iranian government is 156 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:53,040 constructing a national narrative of this conflict as a 157 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:56,120 21st century version of the Western theft of Iranian 158 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:59,760 resources, and it is deploying that narrative with consistency 159 00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:02,520 and discipline across every level of its communications 160 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:05,160 apparatus. CENTCOM confirmed on Monday that 161 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:08,080 the campaign has now struck thousands of high value targets 162 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:11,720 across Iran, including command centers, air defense systems, 163 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:14,480 missile sites, production facilities, and airfields. 164 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:18,560 It confirmed major destruction of Iran's naval assets and 165 00:09:18,560 --> 00:09:21,960 severe degradation of Iran's offensive missile arsenal. 166 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:25,480 And it confirmed for the first time in direct public language, 167 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:28,600 that the operation is specifically designed to prevent 168 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:32,760 Iran from ever acquiring nuclear weapons, not prevent Iran from 169 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:36,760 currently having nuclear weapons, prevent Iran from ever 170 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:39,920 acquiring them. That formulation implies the 171 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:43,480 destruction of the entire industrial, scientific, and 172 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:46,600 human infrastructure that Iran would need to rebuild a nuclear 173 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:49,360 program from scratch. Achieving that objective 174 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:52,600 comprehensively is one that air strikes alone, however 175 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:55,680 intensive, may not be fully capable of delivering. 176 00:09:56,240 --> 00:09:59,680 The Israeli military continued its strikes on Monday with what 177 00:09:59,680 --> 00:10:02,680 it described as a new wave targeting the infrastructure of 178 00:10:02,680 --> 00:10:04,600 the terror regime in central Iran. 179 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:08,680 Israel's Foreign Ministry called Mojtaba Khamenei another tyrant 180 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:11,760 and said his hands are already stained with the bloodshed that 181 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:15,160 defined his father's rule. Israel is not signaling that the 182 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:17,680 appointment changes its targeting calculus. 183 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:21,280 It killed a Balka Simba Ban, the man appointed to serve the 184 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:24,400 incoming supreme leader, before the announcement was even 185 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:26,920 formally made. The new supreme leader's 186 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:30,720 personal security situation is extraordinarily precarious. 187 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:34,560 Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a personal telegram to 188 00:10:34,560 --> 00:10:38,240 Mojtaba Khamenei congratulating him on becoming Iran's new 189 00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:41,360 supreme leader. The message reaffirmed Russia's 190 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:44,840 unwavering support for Tehran. Putin described the tenure in 191 00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:48,440 the post as requiring great courage and dedication at a time 192 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:50,600 when Iran is opposing armed aggression. 193 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:53,720 Russia's congratulations, combined with its ongoing 194 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:56,480 provision of targeting intelligence on the locations of 195 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:59,920 American warships, represents the clearest possible statement 196 00:10:59,920 --> 00:11:03,000 of where Moscow stands. It is not neutral. 197 00:11:03,680 --> 00:11:06,520 It is actively sustaining Iran's ability to fight while 198 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:09,600 harvesting the economic benefits of higher oil prices. 199 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:13,520 Putin also said on Monday that Russia would supply oil and gas 200 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:17,080 to European buyers, provided such cooperation was long term 201 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:18,800 and free from political pressures. 202 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:22,880 European natural gas prices have nearly doubled since Operation 203 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:26,160 Epic Fury began. Putin is offering an alternative 204 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:29,600 to Gulf energy on conditions that amount to accept Russian 205 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:32,880 energy permanently and remove the political objections that 206 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:34,880 have built up since the invasion of Ukraine. 207 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:38,840 Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban reinforced that message, 208 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:42,560 calling on the European Union to suspend sanctions on Russian 209 00:11:42,560 --> 00:11:45,920 energy imports in response to rising energy prices. 210 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:49,760 The war in Iran is actively rehabilitating Russian energy 211 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:51,880 leverage over Europe in real time. 212 00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:56,040 Canada entered the diplomatic picture in a new way on Monday. 213 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,400 Prime Minister Mark Carney, speaking alongside Australian 214 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:03,160 Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, declined to categorically rule 215 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:06,200 out Canadian military participation in the conflict. 216 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:09,040 He said one can never categorically rule out 217 00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:12,640 participation. He said Canada will stand by its 218 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:16,640 allies, and he simultaneously said the American and Israeli 219 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:19,280 strikes are inconsistent with international law. 220 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:22,880 Canada's position is therefore that the strikes are illegal, 221 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:26,120 that Canada stands with the allies conducting them and that 222 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:28,760 military participation cannot be ruled out. 223 00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:31,960 That is one of the more extraordinary combinations of 224 00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:34,840 positions to emerge from any allied government in this 225 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:37,960 conflict. The G7 foreign ministers convene 226 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:41,760 an emergency meeting on Monday. They issued a joint statement 227 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:45,120 calling for immediate de escalation and expressing deep 228 00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:48,480 concern about the humanitarian situation and global energy 229 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:51,120 markets. The statement notably did not 230 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:53,760 condemn the American and Israeli strikes. 231 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:57,400 France separately requested an emergency United Nations 232 00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:00,600 Security Council meeting to address Lebanon and release €6 233 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:03,400 million in emergency humanitarian aid. 234 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:07,200 France is deploying military assets to the region, calling 235 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:10,760 for a ceasefire and providing humanitarian aid to civilians 236 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:13,400 displaced by the operations of its closest ally. 237 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:16,080 The contradictions in that position reveal the full 238 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:19,400 complexity of what it means to be a European ally of the United 239 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:22,240 States in a war that European governments believe is 240 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:25,200 inconsistent with international law but lack the political will 241 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:27,760 to oppose. South Korea's President Lee 242 00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:30,680 Jamie Young made a statement on Monday that attracted 243 00:13:30,680 --> 00:13:33,240 significant strategic attention in Washington. 244 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:36,800 He said South Korea cannot stop the United States from 245 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,800 redeploying some of its Patriot missile systems to the Middle 246 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:41,840 East. Reports had emerged that the 247 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:45,600 United States was moving Patriot systems from Ozone Air Base for 248 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:49,560 possible shipping to the region. If true, this represents an 249 00:13:49,560 --> 00:13:53,160 alarming strategic calculation, reducing the air defense 250 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,360 capability of the Korean Peninsula, where approximately 251 00:13:56,360 --> 00:14:00,600 28,500 American troops serve as a deterrent against North Korean 252 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:04,480 aggression in order to replenish depleted Middle East stockpiles. 253 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:07,280 The signal that sends to Pyongyang, which has been 254 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:09,960 watching American munitions expenditure with intense 255 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:12,360 interest, is potentially destabilizing. 256 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:16,440 Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Iraq's Prime Minister on 257 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:19,160 Monday to reiterate the importance of safeguarding 258 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:22,840 American diplomatic personnel and facilities after Iran backed 259 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:26,120 militias launched fresh rocket attacks on the American embassy 260 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:29,280 in Baghdad. Iraq hosts American forces, has 261 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:33,160 a Shia Muslim population deeply sympathetic to Iran and a 262 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:36,360 political establishment divided between pro Iranian and pro 263 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:38,920 American factions. Its sovereignty is being 264 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:42,680 violated simultaneously by American and Israeli strikes on 265 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:46,320 Iranian backed targets and by Iranian backed militia attacks 266 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:49,960 on American installations. Iraq has asked all parties to 267 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:53,240 respect its sovereignty. All parties are ignoring it. 268 00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:57,760 The economic picture on Monday shifted from extreme alarm to a 269 00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:00,960 more contained but still deeply concerning position. 270 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:05,520 Oil dropped back to around $100 after Trump's remarks about the 271 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:08,560 war ending soon. That price still represents a 272 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:11,240 57% increase from the pre war level. 273 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:15,200 It remains highly vulnerable to any development that contradicts 274 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:19,120 Trump's optimistic framing. A major Iranian strike on Saudi 275 00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:22,520 energy infrastructure and Israeli escalation, or any 276 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:25,480 development involving Hormuz shipping could send oil back 277 00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:28,080 toward 110 or higher within hours. 278 00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:30,560 Traders are not pricing in peace. 279 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:33,720 They are pricing in a brief pause in the worst case 280 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:36,560 trajectory. Human Rights Watch released a 281 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:38,600 significant new report on Monday. 282 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:42,120 The organization said it had uncovered evidence that Israel 283 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:45,040 used white phosphorus in residential areas of southern 284 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:48,720 Lebanon earlier in the conflict, in violation of international 285 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:51,720 humanitarian law. White phosphorus ignites on 286 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:56,480 contact with oxygen and burns out approximately 800°C. 287 00:15:56,920 --> 00:16:00,080 It's used in residential areas where it can land on civilians 288 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:03,080 and cause catastrophic burns that are extremely difficult to 289 00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:06,080 extinguish and treat. Is considered a violation of the 290 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:09,360 principle of proportionality and distinction under the laws of 291 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:12,200 armed conflict. Human Rights Watches report 292 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:14,960 coming on the same day if formally called the min of 293 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:18,440 school air strike a potential war crime means the organization 294 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:21,480 has now raised formal legal concerns about two separate 295 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:24,920 incidents in the same week. Neither Israel nor the United 296 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:28,440 States has formally responded to the white phosphorus finding as 297 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:31,480 a Monday evening. The casualty picture across the 298 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:34,440 conflict as of Monday morning provided one of the most 299 00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:37,760 comprehensive single snapshots of the human cost to date. 300 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:41,360 Iran's deputy health minister confirmed that at least 55 301 00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:44,480 healthcare workers have been wounded and 11 killed in Iran, 302 00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:47,920 including four physicians, 2 nurses, and three emergency 303 00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:51,400 workers in Israel. At least 13 Israelis have been 304 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:56,080 killed and 1929 wounded in Iranian attacks since February 305 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:59,200 28th. In Bahrain, 32 people were 306 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:03,120 wounded in an Iranian drone attack on Sunday alone for them 307 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:06,319 in critical condition, including children requiring surgery. 308 00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:10,880 Jordan announced it had been targeted by 119 Iranian missiles 309 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:15,400 and drones, injuring 14 people. An eighth American service 310 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:17,400 member has been confirmed killed. 311 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:20,760 The conflict has now claimed the lives of people from at least 12 312 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:23,640 countries, including Indian nationals killed in the Strait 313 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:27,119 of Hormuz, a Chinese national killed in Iran, a Filipino 314 00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:30,600 national killed in Israel, Nepali and Pakistani nationals 315 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:34,400 killed in the UAE, Bangladeshi nationals killed in Bahrain, and 316 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:36,920 two Japanese nationals detained inside Iran. 317 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:40,160 This is not a conflict between two countries. 318 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:44,280 In its human consequences, it has already touched every corner 319 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:47,080 of the world. The domestic political situation 320 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:50,400 in the United States on Day 11 reflected a country divided 321 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:53,880 along partisan lines but in which the political momentum is 322 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:57,240 currently with the president. The war powers resolutions in 323 00:17:57,240 --> 00:18:00,760 both chambers failed. Republican support held firm. 324 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:04,560 Democratic opposition was near universal but insufficient to 325 00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:06,920 force any constraint on the executive. 326 00:18:07,360 --> 00:18:10,640 Trump's suggestion at Doral that the war could end soon gave the 327 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:12,760 administration a significant boost. 328 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:17,560 Markets for us all, Phil The domestic political environment 329 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:21,240 for continuing the operation on Day 11 is stable. 330 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,320 What is not stable is the diplomatic environment, the 331 00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:27,520 humanitarian situation, the global energy market, the 332 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,200 nuclear material question, and the question of what comes 333 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:32,840 after. Iran's Air Force is gone. 334 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:36,640 Its Navy is gone. Its air defenses are largely 335 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:39,640 destroyed. Its supreme leader is dead. 336 00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:43,280 Its missile attacks are down 90% from their peak. 337 00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:46,480 Its economy is being further devastated. 338 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:50,400 And yet Iran has a new supreme leader who has pledged to fight. 339 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:54,640 Its IRGC has pledged allegiance until the last drop of blood. 340 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:58,200 Its foreign minister has rejected any ceasefire. 341 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:02,160 Russia is providing targeting intelligence and congratulating 342 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:05,120 its new leader. And somewhere underground in a 343 00:19:05,120 --> 00:19:07,960 location American intelligence is not yet definitively 344 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:11,880 identified, there is a stockpile of highly enriched uranium that 345 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:16,000 air strikes alone cannot reach. Trump says the war will end very 346 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,880 soon. He says oil will go down. 347 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:21,760 He says it has been a short term excursion. 348 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:26,080 He also says there is more to do and that ultimate victory is the 349 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:27,880 goal. Day 11. 350 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,840 The most important question is no longer whether America is 351 00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:35,480 winning the war, it is whether America knows what winning looks 352 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:39,640 like when it is finished. That is episode 11 of Epic Fury, 353 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:44,080 the US Iran war podcast. The story is moving fast. 354 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:48,520 Subscribe on Spotify, Apple podcast or YouTube so every new 355 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:52,240 episode lands directly with you. Share this with someone who 356 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:55,880 needs to understand what is happening and we will be back 357 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:56,760 very soon.