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The blockade is in effect. the 
United States Navy began 

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enforcing it at 10 in the 
morning Eastern Time on Monday, 

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April 13th. 
Iran's armed forces called it 

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piracy. 
Trump said Iranian ships 

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approaching the blockade will be
eliminated. 

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Britain said it is not 
supporting the blockade. 

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France announced a peaceful 
multinational mission to restore

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00:00:38,860 --> 00:00:43,000
freedom of navigation. 
Nearly 20,000 Indian seafarers 

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are stranded in the Strait, 
running short of food, water and

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00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:50,560
medical supplies. 
Oil is near $100 per barrel. 

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And Trump said he was called 
today by the right people in 

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Iran. 
It is Tuesday, April 14th, 2026,

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day 46 of Operation Epic Fury. 
The ceasefire technically 

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remains in place, barely. 
The blockade of Iranian ports is

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active and being enforced, and 
the war that everyone thought 

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was winding down six days ago 
when Pakistan brokered a 

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ceasefire is, by most 
operational and legal measures, 

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escalating again. 
Seven days remain before the 

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ceasefire window closes, and the
direction of travel on Monday 

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00:01:24,320 --> 00:01:29,680
was not toward de escalation. 
This is episode 46 of Epic Fury,

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00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:34,000
the US Iran War podcast. 
Follow on Spotify and Apple 

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00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:36,800
Podcast to stay with this story 
as it develops. 

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Let's get into it. 
Start with what the blockade 

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actually means in practice, 
because the precise language of 

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the CENTCOM announcement reveals
a distinction that matters 

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enormously for how the next 
seven days unfold. 

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CENTCOM was specific. 
The blockade applies to all 

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maritime traffic entering and 
exiting Iranian ports and 

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coastal areas, including all 
Iranian ports on the Arabian 

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Gulf and Gulf of Oman. 
It does not impede freedom of 

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navigation for vessels 
transiting the Strait of Hormuz 

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to and from non Iranian 
destinations. 

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That distinction block Iranian 
ports, not the Strait itself, 

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for non Iranian traffic is the 
legal and operational 

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architecture that separates an 
American naval blockade from an 

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Iranian one. 
Iran has been blocking the 

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Strait to everyone it designates
as hostile. the United States is

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blocking access to Iranian ports
specifically, while asserting 

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00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:31,840
that non Iranian transit through
the Strait continues under 

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International Maritime law. 
The practical effect, however, 

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00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,440
converges a straight block to 
Iranian port. 

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Traffic on one side in mine and 
conditionally closed by Iran on 

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the other, is a straight that 
most shipping companies and 

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00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:48,680
their insurers will not use. the
US blockade does not require AUS

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00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:51,240
Navy ship to physically stop 
every vessel. 

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00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:54,200
The announcement itself is 
sufficient to cause shipping 

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00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,400
companies to divert or hold 
their vessels because the legal 

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00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:00,760
and insurance exposure of 
entering A blockaded zone, even 

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00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:04,160
one that notionally permits non 
Iranian transit, is simply too 

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large. 
Before the war, 100 to 120 ships

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transited daily. 
As of Monday, the Straight 

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00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:14,760
remained effectively closed to 
commercial oil tanker traffic. 

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00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:18,680
Nearly 20,000 Indian seafarers 
are stranded on vessels in the 

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00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:22,440
region running short of food, 
potable water and essential 

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medical supplies, according to 
the National Union of Seafarers 

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of India. 
Their general secretary wrote a 

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00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:31,080
letter to India's National 
Shipping Board warning of acute 

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shortages and urging authorities
to protect their welfare. 

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00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:38,000
Those crew members have been at 
sea in a war zone for weeks. 

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They are not combats. 
They are workers, engineers, 

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deckhands, navigators, cooks 
largely from India, the 

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Philippines, Pakistan and a 
dozen other countries who signed

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employment contracts for voyages
that did not include being 

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trapped in an active military 
conflict zone. 

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For 46 days, the International 
Transport Workers Federation has

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been pressing both governments 
to create a humanitarian 

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00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:05,280
corridor that would allow food, 
water and medical supplies to 

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reach the stranded vessels. 
No such corridor exists as of 

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00:04:09,040 --> 00:04:12,480
Tuesday morning. 
The vessels cannot leave because

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the Strait is effectively 
closed. 

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They cannot be resupplied 
because the blockade applies to 

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maritime traffic. 
In the approaches and the 

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00:04:20,399 --> 00:04:23,440
government's arguing about 
international law, nuclear 

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enrichment and Strait of Hormuz 
sovereignty are not the ones 

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going without food. 
The humanitarian dimension of 

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00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:33,080
the Strait closure has been one 
of the least reported aspects of

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00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:36,760
this war, even though it touches
more civilian lives than almost 

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any other single development. 
Before the war, roughly 20 

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00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:43,760
million barrels of oil transited
the straight daily. 

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00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:47,480
The disruption to that flow has 
increased energy costs globally,

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00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:50,400
contributed to food price 
inflation in countries that 

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00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:53,880
import fertilizers from Gulf 
producers, and disrupted supply 

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00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:56,240
chains across South and 
Southeast Asia. 

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The stranded seafarers are the 
visible human face of that 

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00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:02,040
disruption. 
They're caught between 2 

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00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:06,080
blockades, 1 Iranian, one 
American that are arguing about 

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00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:09,120
international law while these 
specific human beings run out of

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00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:11,960
food. 
Trump said Iranian attack ships 

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00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:15,440
approaching the US blockade will
be eliminated, he told 

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00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:18,120
reporters. 
We can't let a country blackmail

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00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:21,000
or extort the world because that
is what they are doing. 

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00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:25,680
Vance, appearing on Fox News on 
Monday, framed the blockade as a

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00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:28,880
reciprocal measure. 
He said Iran had engaged in 

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economic terrorism against the 
entire world by threatening 

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00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:35,360
ships in the Strait of Hormuz, 
and that the US is playing at 

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that same game. 
If the Iranians are going to 

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00:05:37,840 --> 00:05:41,560
engage in economic terrorism, he
said, we are going to abide by a

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simple principle. 
No Iranian ships get out either.

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00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:48,800
Vance also said on Monday that 
the ball is entirely in Iran's 

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00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:51,200
court on whether further direct 
talks happen. 

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00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:54,440
Asked whether there would be 
more direct engagement, he said 

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it is a question best put to the
Iranians. 

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That framing the ball is in 
their court is the American 

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00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:02,840
position. 
After Islamabad, the US made its

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00:06:02,840 --> 00:06:05,520
final offer. 
Iran did not accept it and the 

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00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:09,000
next move belongs to Tehran. 
The blockade is the pressure 

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00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:12,320
that is supposed to make that 
next move happen faster and on 

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00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:15,480
American terms. 
Former US Deputy National 

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00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:19,320
Security Advisor Mark Feifel 
told Al Jazeera that the 21 hour

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00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:22,280
Islamabad session was a pressure
test and a reset. 

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He said the blockade is not 
measured by ship stops alone but

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by how fast the markets react, 
adding that the moment Trump 

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00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:32,840
says no ships, he owns every 
ship and if he misses one, the 

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00:06:32,840 --> 00:06:36,000
entire strategy could crack that
observation. 

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The operational fragility of a 
blockade that claims total 

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00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:42,680
enforcement is the military and 
political risk that Monday's 

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00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:46,160
announcement created the 
alliance picture on Monday with 

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the clearest indication yet of 
how isolated Washington is in 

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00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:52,800
this specific decision. 
Britain's Prime Minister Starmer

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said his country is not 
supporting the blockade and that

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all of the UK's diplomatic, 
political and capability efforts

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are focused on getting the 
straight fully open as quickly 

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00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:04,400
as possible to reduce global 
energy prices. 

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That is a direct and public 
repudiation of an American 

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military action by the United 
States closest ally. 

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Starmer's language was careful 
and pointed, he said, not 

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supporting rather than opposing,
which preserves the bilateral 

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relationship while making the 
disagreement unmistakable. 

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00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:24,560
Britain has U.S. forces on 
British bases throughout this 

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war. 
It has provided intelligence 

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support and overflight access, 
but it is not joining the 

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blockade. 
The distinction matters. 

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00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:36,000
France's President Macron 
announced a peaceful 

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00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:39,240
multinational mission aimed at 
restoring freedom of navigation 

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in the Strait of Hormuz and said
he would convene a conference 

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with Britain in the coming days.
The French, framing A 

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00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:48,520
multinational mission for 
freedom of navigation, not a 

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blockade enforcement operation, 
is a European alternative to the

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00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:55,680
American approach, built around 
International Maritime law 

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rather than unilateral American 
naval power. 

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Whether that mission has any 
practical effect or whether it 

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00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:04,920
is primarily A diplomatic signal
that Europe is not aligned with 

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00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:08,200
Washington on the blockade will 
become clearer when Macron holds

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00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:11,240
his conference. 
Germany urged Iran to respect 

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00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:14,680
the ceasefire and allow ships to
cross the straits safely. 

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00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:18,480
China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi
said blockading Iranian ports 

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does not serve the world's 
common interests and called on 

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00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:24,600
the international community to 
intensify efforts to promote 

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00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:27,080
peace talks. 
Wong held a phone call with 

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00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:30,200
Pakistan's foreign minister, IS 
Shakhtar, urging the 

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00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:33,360
preservation of the extremely 
fragile ceasefire. 

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00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:36,679
Russia's Lavrov said Moscow 
remains ready to help find 

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00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:40,159
solutions and said the ceasefire
agreements apply to Lebanon, 

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00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:44,039
taking the Iranian and Pakistani
position against the American 

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and Israeli 1. 
A legal expert cited by Al 

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00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:50,160
Jazeera argue that by 
establishing the blockade, the 

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United States is exercising A 
belligerent right under the laws

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of war, effectively ending the 
ceasefire. 

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That legal assessment that the 
blockade is itself an act of war

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00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:03,240
that terminates the ceasefire is
not one the Trump administration

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00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:07,040
accepts, but it is the framing 
that Iran, China, Russia and 

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00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:10,400
most of the international legal 
community will apply. the United

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00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:13,040
Kingdom's Maritime Trade 
Operations Center issued a 

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00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:16,480
notice on Monday saying that 
maritime access restrictions are

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being enforced affecting Iranian
ports and coastal areas, 

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including locations along the 
Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and 

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the Arabian Sea east of the 
Strait of Hormuz. 

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That notice from the British 
Military Trade Organization, not

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00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:33,960
from a belligerent party, is the
operational acknowledgement that

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the blockade exists, published 
by a country that is 

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00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:39,200
simultaneously saying it does 
not support it. 

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00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:42,520
Iran's Foreign Minister Arachi 
warned against what he called 

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the dangerous consequences of 
provocative US actions in the 

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Persian Gulf and Strait of 
Hormuz for regional and global 

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peace and security. 
He issued that warning in a call

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with his Russian counterpart, 
Lavrov, not in a public press 

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conference, which suggests 
Tehran is working the diplomatic

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00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:00,680
back channels rather than 
escalating publicly. 

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00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:04,080
Iran's armed forces 
characterized the blockade as an

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00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:07,560
illegal act of piracy and said 
the security of its ports is 

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00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:09,480
either for everyone or for no 
one. 

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00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:13,120
The IRGC said the Straight 
remains under Iran's full 

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00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:16,040
control and that military 
vessels approaching the straight

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00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:17,960
would receive a forceful 
response. 

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00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:21,640
The Hezbollah chief, Naeem 
Kassem, rejected negotiations 

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00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:24,960
between the Lebanese government 
and Israel set to begin Tuesday 

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00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:28,240
in Washington, and called on 
Lebanon's president to refuse to

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00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:30,960
engage. 
The Lebanon thread continues to 

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00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:34,240
pull against every diplomatic 
effort in every direction. 

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00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:37,960
And yet Trump said on Monday 
that he was called today by the 

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00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:40,880
right people in Iran. 
That cryptic statement, 

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00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:43,920
delivered to reporters at the 
White House, is the most 

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00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:46,920
interesting diplomatic signal of
the entire day. 

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00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:52,120
The right people, not the 
foreign ministry, not Arachi, 

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00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:55,400
the right people. 
It is worth dwelling on that 

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00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:59,200
phrase because in Iran's power 
structure, the right people is 

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00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:02,800
not a casual designation. 
Iran's civilian government 

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00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:06,000
Posseschian, Arachi. 
The foreign ministry has been 

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00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:09,040
demonstrably excluded from 
military decision making 

200
00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:12,240
throughout this war. 
The IRGC has operated 

201
00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:15,000
autonomously. 
The Supreme National Security 

202
00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:18,640
Council chair by Posseschian, 
but dominated by hardliners and 

203
00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:21,480
military figures, has made the 
key decisions about the 

204
00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:23,560
ceasefire and the Islamabad 
talks. 

205
00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:26,320
Common A's office sits above all
of them. 

206
00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:29,760
If Trump was called by someone 
in that chain of command this 

207
00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:34,640
NSC, the IRGC leadership or 
Common A's office directly, it 

208
00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:37,240
represents A qualitative shift 
in the back channel from the 

209
00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:40,320
Iraqi LED diplomatic track that 
Islamabad represented. 

210
00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:43,840
It also raises an obvious 
question, why is this call 

211
00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:46,400
happening the day the blockade 
went into effect? 

212
00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:49,640
The answer that presents itself 
is that the blockade is already 

213
00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:53,120
working as intended, not by 
physically stopping ships, but 

214
00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:56,440
by signaling to whoever in Iran 
controls the nuclear decision 

215
00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:59,360
that the economic cost of 
continued standoff is about to 

216
00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:02,600
accelerate sharply. 
The right people in Iran calling

217
00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:06,040
Trump on the day the blockade 
starts is consistent with that 

218
00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:08,160
reading. 
Whether that call leads 

219
00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:11,400
somewhere or whether it is an 
exploratory contact that 

220
00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:15,800
produces nothing will be visible
in the next 48 to 72 hours. 

221
00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:20,800
Trump did not elaborate, but the
phone lines are apparently open 

222
00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:24,040
and at a level of seniority that
the Islamabad talks did not 

223
00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:27,120
reach. 
The S&P 500 closed up more than 

224
00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:31,320
1% on Monday, erasing all of its
losses since the war began on 

225
00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:34,440
February 28th. 
That market movement, stocks 

226
00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:37,600
rising on a day when a naval 
blockade took effect and oil 

227
00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:42,120
nearly hit $100 a barrel, seems 
paradoxical until you understand

228
00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:45,320
what markets are pricing. 
Markets are not pricing the 

229
00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:49,720
current situation, they are 
pricing the expected resolution.

230
00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:54,200
The S&P 500 is rising because 
investors believe Trump's call 

231
00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:57,080
from the right people in Iran 
combined with the blockades, 

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00:12:57,080 --> 00:13:00,840
economic pressure is moving the 
situation toward a deal rather 

233
00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:04,280
than toward a return to bombing.
That bet may be correct or 

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00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:08,320
incorrect, but it is the bet the
entire U.S. equity market made 

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00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:11,560
on Monday, and it is a 
significant signal about where 

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00:13:11,560 --> 00:13:13,760
sophisticated money thinks this 
is heading. 

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00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:17,560
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright
said oil prices will likely 

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00:13:17,560 --> 00:13:20,600
continue rising until meaningful
ship traffic gets through the 

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00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:23,960
Strait, and that he anticipates 
this will occur sometime in the 

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00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:26,360
next few weeks. 
He made those comments at the 

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00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:29,280
Semaphore World Economy Summit 
in Washington on Monday, 

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00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:32,160
speaking publicly about a 
timeline of weeks while the 

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00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:35,120
blockade he serves an 
administration that just imposed

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00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:36,880
was taking effect at the same 
hour. 

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00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:42,480
Oil is near $100 per barrel, up 
approximately 40% since the war 

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00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:46,400
began on February 28th. 
Gas in the United States is now 

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00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:52,320
averaging $4.13 per gallon, up 
$1.14 since the war's first day.

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00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:57,400
For the American consumer, that 
is a tax of roughly $20 per fill

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00:13:57,400 --> 00:14:01,440
up that has been running for 46 
days for lower income households

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00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:05,040
that drive long distances to 
work and cannot absorb sustained

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00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:08,320
fuel price increases. 
The economic impact of this war 

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00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:11,600
is not abstract. 
It is visible at every gas 

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00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:14,760
station in the country. 
The political pressure on Trump 

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00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:18,000
to resolve the Hormuz situation 
from working class voters who 

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00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:21,200
care about what their commute 
costs is one of the few domestic

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00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:23,640
constraints on a president who 
has said he does not care 

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00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:27,600
whether a deal happens. 
The S&P 500 closed up more than 

258
00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:30,720
1% on Monday, erasing all war 
losses. 

259
00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:34,600
But stocks and petrol prices are
telling different stories about 

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00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:37,440
the same war. 
Investors are betting on 

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00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:40,360
resolution. 
Commuters are paying for the 

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00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:43,240
conflict. 
Both sets of numbers matter. 

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00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:46,960
The blockade adds a further 
layer of uncertainty to when 

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00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:50,000
either number improves. 
It signals to the market that 

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00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:53,280
the path to Hormuz reopening is 
now contingent on the nuclear 

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00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:56,840
question and the blockades terms
being resolved simultaneously. 

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00:14:57,400 --> 00:14:59,440
Neither was resolved in 
Islamabad. 

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00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:03,240
Both remain open. 
Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan 

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00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:06,600
Fidan told state-run Anadolu 
Agency on Monday that if the 

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00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:10,080
parties make good progress, an 
additional ceasefire extension 

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00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:13,960
of 45 to 60 days could be 
introduced to allow negotiations

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00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:16,680
to continue. 
He warned that Israel remains a 

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00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:20,040
factor that could disrupt 
negotiations and that uranium 

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00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:22,960
enrichment would be a sticking 
point, but expressed hope that 

275
00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:26,000
with the support of mediators in
other countries, these obstacles

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00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:29,440
could be overcome. 
That statement, a potential 45 

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00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:33,600
to 60 day extension, is the most
specific diplomatic proposal to 

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00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:36,520
emerge in the hours since 
Islamabad, and it comes from a 

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00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:38,920
country that was part of the 
Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey 

280
00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:42,160
ceasefire initiative that Iran 
rejected before the talks. 

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00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:46,120
Turkey's continued engagement as
a potential mediator alongside 

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00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:50,040
Pakistan and Egypt is one of the
few remaining institutional 

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00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:52,760
pillars on which a ceasefire 
extension could be built. 

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00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:56,480
Turkey's foreign minister Fidden
described uranium enrichment as 

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00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:59,600
a potential sticking point, but 
expressed hope that mediators 

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00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:01,280
could help both sides overcome 
it. 

287
00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:05,160
His statement, careful, 
constructive, not ruling out 

288
00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:08,160
progress, is the tone of a 
country that's trying to keep 

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00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:11,320
the diplomatic space open while 
the United States and Iran 

290
00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:14,040
escalate their mutual economic 
pressure campaigns. 

291
00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:19,040
The cease-fire expires on April 
22nd. 7 days remain. 

292
00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:22,680
The blockade is active. 
The phone call from the right 

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00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:25,880
people in Iran is unexplained 
but suggestive. 

294
00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:31,240
The S&P 500 closed up more than 
1%, erasing all war losses. 

295
00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:34,040
Markets betting on resolution, 
not escalation. 

296
00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:37,680
The UK and France are not 
supporting the blockade and are 

297
00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:40,200
building a rival multinational 
framework. 

298
00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:44,040
China is urging calm and working
the Pakistan channel. 

299
00:16:44,680 --> 00:16:48,160
Pakistan's is Shakdar is still 
in the room and still urging 

300
00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:50,720
both sides to uphold their 
ceasefire commitment. 

301
00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:55,400
Turkey is floating a 45 to 60 
day extension if progress is 

302
00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:59,560
made and nearly 20,000 seafarers
are running short of food in the

303
00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:02,360
straight between two blockades 
that each call the other 

304
00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:04,920
illegal. 
The seven days between now and 

305
00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:08,359
April 22nd are the most 
consequential diplomatic window 

306
00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:12,079
of this entire conflict. 
The war produced no decisive 

307
00:17:12,079 --> 00:17:15,440
political outcome. 
The ceasefire produced no deal. 

308
00:17:15,839 --> 00:17:19,680
Islamabad produced no agreement.
The blockade has produced a 

309
00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:21,359
phone call from the right 
people. 

310
00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:25,440
Whether that phone call produces
anything is what the next seven 

311
00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,560
days will determine. 
Seven days is not much time to 

312
00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:32,040
bridge 47 years of deep 
hostility, a nuclear dispute, 

313
00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:35,840
Hormuz dispute, a Lebanon 
dispute, A proxy network dispute

314
00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:39,120
and the sanctions architecture 
that goes back to 1979. 

315
00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:43,320
But seven days is what is left 
and the right people have 

316
00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:47,360
apparently started talking. 
The UN secretary general Antonio

317
00:17:47,360 --> 00:17:51,640
Guterres call for talks between 
the US and Iran to continue and 

318
00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:54,040
urged all parties to uphold the 
ceasefire. 

319
00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:57,920
UN calls for dialogue are a 
standard diplomatic response to 

320
00:17:57,920 --> 00:18:01,000
escalation and rarely produce 
immediate results. 

321
00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:03,920
But the consistent pressure from
the United Nations, from the 

322
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:07,640
Pope, from European governments,
from Turkey, and from Pakistan 

323
00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:10,840
to maintain the ceasefire and 
extend the negotiating window is

324
00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:13,400
a measure of the depth of 
international concern about what

325
00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:16,240
happens on April 22nd if no 
extension is agreed. 

326
00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:19,640
The Israeli Lebanese direct 
talks in Washington scheduled 

327
00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:23,120
for Tuesday represent the one 
diplomatic thread moving in the 

328
00:18:23,120 --> 00:18:26,440
right direction. 
On Day 46, for the first time in

329
00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:30,160
decades, Israeli and Lebanese 
ambassadors will sit across a 

330
00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:33,440
table in Washington. 
Netanyahu said he wants what he 

331
00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:36,160
described as a real peace 
agreement with Lebanon that will

332
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,640
last for generations. 
Hezbollah's chief, Naeem Qasim, 

333
00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:42,640
rejected the talks and told 
Lebanon's president not to 

334
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:44,880
engage. 
Whether Lebanon's government 

335
00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:47,880
proceeds over Hezbollah's 
objection is a test of the 

336
00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:50,160
Lebanese state's independence 
from the group that has 

337
00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:52,880
dominated its security landscape
for four decades. 

338
00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:57,200
If Israel and Lebanon make even 
preliminary progress on Tuesday,

339
00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:01,000
it removes one of Iran's primary
justifications for not reopening

340
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,040
the Strait. 
The argument that the ceasefire 

341
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:05,520
must cover Lebanon before Hormuz
can open. 

342
00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:09,040
Progress in Washington on 
Lebanon could therefore create 

343
00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:11,920
movement on Hormuz that the 
Islamabad talks could not. 

344
00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:16,080
Everything is connected. 
Lebanon connects to Hormuz. 

345
00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:20,120
Hormuz connects to the blockade.
The blockade connects to the 

346
00:19:20,120 --> 00:19:21,760
phone call from the right 
people. 

347
00:19:22,360 --> 00:19:25,200
The phone call connects to 
whether Iran responds to the 

348
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:28,600
written final offer. 
The written final offer connects

349
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:32,000
to whether the ceasefire is 
extended or expires on April 

350
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:36,320
22nd and April 22nd connects to 
everything that comes after it, 

351
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:40,160
deal, extension or war. 
If this podcast is helping you 

352
00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:43,480
make sense of what is happening,
please take 30 seconds to leave 

353
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,160
a review on Spotify or Apple 
Podcasts. 

354
00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:49,880
It makes an enormous difference 
to how many people find a shell.

355
00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:55,480
This has been episode 46 of Epic
Fury, the US Iran war podcast. 

356
00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:59,200
Day 46. 
The blockade is live. 

357
00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:04,120
The ceasefire technically holds.
The UK and France will not join 

358
00:20:04,120 --> 00:20:07,040
the blockade. 
China and Russia are urging 

359
00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:09,960
calm. 
Pakistan is still mediating. 

360
00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:14,480
Turkey is floating a ceasefire 
ext 20,000. 

361
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:19,680
Seafarers are running short. 
Food oil is near $100 a barrel. 

362
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:24,880
The S&P 500 erased all war 
losses and Trump said he was 

363
00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:27,320
called today by the right people
in Iran. 

364
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:31,800
Seven days left on the clock. 
We will be back very soon.